Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I don't think the photos/greetings mean anything. But I enjoyed this one

[Crazy_Ivan80]

is there a hedgehog crawling upwards in that last one.... 

[FunkMonk]

 

[Barrister]

I've seen reporting a couple times that Ukraine has obtained the technical specification of the bridge linking Crimea to Russia (sounds like shades of Star Wars).

The thing is - I'm pretty sure this is a feint.  They're trying to force Russia to tie up AA resources around the bridge, far from the frontlines.  Because I've also seen it suggested that if you think that someday, down the road, you will drive the Russians from Crimea you need to give them an escape route.

[Josquius]

Reading this piece and many like it.

BBC News - 'The Russians said beatings were my re-education'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61683513

It's interesting to see the Russians at it again in underlining the dark side of social media.
Imagine something you've posted being used against you in such a way.
Strikes me Instagram et al need to initialise special "war time" modes to automatically suspend accounts in warzones that go dark

[mongers]

American supplied M777 howitzer being used by Ukranian troops in the Donbas fighting:

[Legbiter]

Both sides seem to be fairly exhausted. The Russians seem to have got by on their manpower issues by using conscripted cannon fodder from the meme republics to inch forward around Severodonetsk while the Ukrainians are clawing at the outskirts of Kherson. Both sides are simultaneously retreating and advancing at a snails' pace.

Meanwhile the oil embargo looks like a failure, the Russians are selling to the Chinese and Indians, inflicting serious economic hurt on the West and tanking Biden and the Democrats politically along with many other Western governments as the year goes on. The technical sanctions, especially spare parts and microchips will bite but will take time to have an effect.

[Jacob]

Putin only has to hang on until the GOP gains power and sells out Ukraine.

[Barrister]

Both sides seem to be fairly exhausted. The Russians seem to have got by on their manpower issues by using conscripted cannon fodder from the meme republics to inch forward around Severodonetsk while the Ukrainians are clawing at the outskirts of Kherson. Both sides are simultaneously retreating and advancing at a snails' pace.

Meanwhile the oil embargo looks like a failure, the Russians are selling to the Chinese and Indians, inflicting serious economic hurt on the West and tanking Biden and the Democrats politically along with many other Western governments as the year goes on. The technical sanctions, especially spare parts and microchips will bite but will take time to have an effect.

Another perspective:

Ukrainians are still out-gunned by the Russians, but the western gear they are getting is far more accurate.  Lend-Lease has only just started and billions worth of gear is coming.

Ukrainians have a very large manpower poll because they've done a mass mobilization, but their problem is it isn't trained.  Those training efforts continue, plus throw in the UK offering to train tens of thousands of troops.  Russians are maxed out for their manpower unless they want to go full conscription, which they don't seem to want to do for internal political reasons.

If Ukraine can continue to hold out over the summer, come the fall they should be well-positioned to regain territory.

[Berkut]

Stalemate is Ukraine winning.

I am concerned that the "honeymoon" period for Europe is over, as far as the public/emotional response to the war.

[Legbiter]

Putin only has to hang on until the GOP gains power and sells out Ukraine.

The closest historical analog I can think of is when Jimmy Carter put a grain embargo on the Soviet Union. 

The United States grain embargo against the Soviet Union was enacted by Jimmy Carter in January 1980 in response to the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. It remained in effect until Ronald Reagan ended it in 1981 upon taking the office of president. American farmers felt the brunt of the sanctions, while it had a much lesser effect on the Soviet Union, bringing the validity of such embargoes into question. During the presidential election campaign of 1980, Republican nominee Ronald Reagan promised to end the embargo while incumbent Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter was not willing to do so

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_grain_embargo_against_the_Soviet_Union#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20grain%20embargo,taking%20the%20office%20of%20president.

[Legbiter]

If Ukraine can continue to hold out over the summer, come the fall they should be well-positioned to regain territory.

Yeah. I hope so at least.

[Tonitrus]

Stalemate is Ukraine winning.

I am concerned that the "honeymoon" period for Europe is over, as far as the public/emotional response to the war.

Yeah, almost every news/talkie bit I see from sources like Deutsche Welle (the english version) seem to be including "well, surely Ukraine will have negotiate/cede territory at some point, right?".

[Barrister]

Twitter thread by a professor from St Andrews University (Scotland) saying Ukrainian losses appear to have been quite over-stated by the Ukrainians, perhaps to gain western sympathy and support.  He points out that things are virtually a stalemete in Donbas, while Ukrainians are advancing and working towards liberating Kherson.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1537711726560481283

[Duque de Bragança]

Putin only has to hang on until the GOP gains power and sells out Ukraine.

The closest historical analog I can think of is when Jimmy Carter put a grain embargo on the Soviet Union. 

The United States grain embargo against the Soviet Union was enacted by Jimmy Carter in January 1980 in response to the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. It remained in effect until Ronald Reagan ended it in 1981 upon taking the office of president. American farmers felt the brunt of the sanctions, while it had a much lesser effect on the Soviet Union, bringing the validity of such embargoes into question. During the presidential election campaign of 1980, Republican nominee Ronald Reagan promised to end the embargo while incumbent Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter was not willing to do so

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_grain_embargo_against_the_Soviet_Union#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20grain%20embargo,taking%20the%20office%20of%20president.

That grain embargo was undermined from the very beginning by South American grain, namely Argentinian. 
That link also says the KGB helped the rival of Carter

In 1980 according to both Yuzhin and Gordievsky, the KGB ordered its agents to conduct activities both discrediting Carter and supporting Ronald Reagan during 1980 election.[3][4]

So hardly new.  or