The China Thread

[grumbler]

Xi has always seemed to me to be reaching for things that the CCP's post-Mao leadership has instinctively avoided: supreme power vested in one man who cannot be held accountable because he makes himself president-for-life; an aggressive foreign policy that seeks to overturn the current world order that has brought China so much prosperity (maybe giving China hegemonic power, but maybe just breaking everything that allows China to succeed); spending money on arms rather than infrastructure; and a cult of personality.

I don't think that the "contented China" of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao is still in the cards, as the Chinese populace has gotten used to a foreign policy of belligerent arrogance and assertiveness, but I think that it can go back to being a country whose actions (not words) support a world order that doesn't let China claim to be top dog, but does allow China to prosper.

China is today's Imperial Germany and Xi is today's Kaiser Wilhelm II.  The world can successfully deal either of those, but not both together.

[CountDeMoney]

Xi has always seemed to me to be reaching for things that the CCP's post-Mao leadership has instinctively avoided: supreme power vested in one man who cannot be held accountable because he makes himself president-for-life; an aggressive foreign policy that seeks to overturn the current world order that has brought China so much prosperity (maybe giving China hegemonic power, but maybe just breaking everything that allows China to succeed); spending money on arms rather than infrastructure; and a cult of personality.

I don't think that the "contented China" of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao is still in the cards, as the Chinese populace has gotten used to a foreign policy of belligerent arrogance and assertiveness, but I think that it can go back to being a country whose actions (not words) support a world order that doesn't let China claim to be top dog, but does allow China to prosper.

China is today's Imperial Germany and Xi is today's Kaiser Wilhelm II.  The world can successfully deal either of those, but not both together.

Doesn't help when they're going through their pop cultural equivalent of the over-the-top, jingoistic Reagan-era action themes of the 1980s with their "Wolf Warrior" foreign policy.  "Rambo with Chinese characteristics."  Ugh.

[Jacob]

Some recent Chinese economy stats:

April data out of China as cities locked down to maintain Covid Zero. All figures are yoy:

Retail sales -11.1%
Industrial output -2.9%
Manufacturing output -4.6%
Electricity output -4.3%
Crude steel output -5.2%
Apparent oil demand -6.7%
YTD home sales -32%

The urban jobless rate rose to 6.1% as well, which is high for China I believe.

The numbers are from Bloomberg (I think - don't have a subscription).

It would suck for the Chinese economy if the housing bubble burst - though maybe it'll encourage the tang ping to re-engage in the economy as they might be able to afford places to live.

A high urban jobless rate probably isn't that good for regime stability either.

Anyways, things aren't looking super hot in China right now and, whatever the structural weaknesses may be there and whatever has happened internationally the Covid Zero lockdowns are having a massive impact.

[Jacob]

The Chinese gov't has completely lost the plot.

Here they are taking strong action to contain Covid in Beijing... spraying who knows what all over the city en masse: https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1526324712267083776?t=sbdtVkBVfDcTE2u3rXgsHA&s=19

[grumbler]

The Chinese gov't has completely lost the plot.

Here they are taking strong action to contain Covid in Beijing... spraying who knows what all over the city en masse: https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1526324712267083776?t=sbdtVkBVfDcTE2u3rXgsHA&s=19 

It's not unusual for the Chinese government to do something for the sake of being seen doing something.

[Jacob]

It's not unusual for the Chinese government to do something for the sake of being seen doing something.

Very very true.

[Josquius]

I thought the Chinese housing bubble had already burst not too long ago?

Isn't that what the evergrande thing was about?

[Jacob]

I thought the Chinese housing bubble had already burst not too long ago?

Isn't that what the evergrande thing was about?

It didn't lead to a massive drop in property prices, so I don't think it counts as burst.

[Razgovory]

The Chinese gov't has completely lost the plot.

Here they are taking strong action to contain Covid in Beijing... spraying who knows what all over the city en masse: https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1526324712267083776?t=sbdtVkBVfDcTE2u3rXgsHA&s=19

Well, at least the people of China can lick the streets without fear of getting Covid.

[Jacob]

The number of cars sold in Shanghai in April 2022: 0

That's significantly below normal for a city of 26 million.

[CountDeMoney]

The number of cars sold in Shanghai in April 2022: 0

That's significantly below normal for a city of 26 million.

Only the Chinese could pull that kind of stat off.


Oh, China...



You're capable of such beautiful dreams and such horrible nightmares.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting video - obviously with a German focus - from DW on research and academic links between European universities and China's defence research:
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1527246861794299904?s=20&t=NOhbR1lSIwVeb3HLrDoX1Q

I'm sure there'll be more reporting forthcoming on this as it looks like the start of a project.

[The Minsky Moment]

There have been hints of this since Biden took office, but the US has now definitively dropped the strategic ambiguity policy over Taiwan, and made a clear statement that the US will help defend Taiwan against an attack by the PRC.  Yet another consequence of the Ukraine affair.

The PRC foreign ministry response was interesting - it focused directly on the concern of encouraging and fomenting independence and raised the One China policy and the joint communiques as a governing statement of policy that should control.  So although harsh in tone for a diplomatic communication, the message is clear that at least at present, the PRC intends to stand by the traditional policy and not seek resolution by force, provided Taiwan does not seek a declaration of indepedence.

[Berkut]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html

Is this a considered change in tone, or just Biden saying out loud (again) something everyone knew to be true but for diplomatic reasons has always been careful to not say out loud?

[Jacob]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html

Is this a considered change in tone, or just Biden saying out loud (again) something everyone knew to be true but for diplomatic reasons has always been careful to not say out loud?

I dunno, but I'll take it.