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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 02:44:20 PM

Title: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 02:44:20 PM
So, the Catalan parliament has passed the law governing an independence referendum, as I write this, the Catalan government is signing the decree calling for the referendum to be held this coming October 1st. The non-nationalist opposition (roughly half of parliament, separatists have a slim majority) have walked out during the vote.

Tomorrow they will pass the law governing the transitional period should the "yes" win (and it will win, since there's no participation threshold in the law, 50%+1 is enough, and the opposition has called to boycott the referendum).

All of this is obviously illegal, and the Spanish Constitutional court will void it all tomorrow. The Catalan government has already said that it will ignore the ruling and proceed with the vote, putting itself in open revolt.

This is not going to end nicely.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:06:34 PM
Meh.

At the end of the day, it all comes down to money, and unlike Basques Catalonian politicians have no real control over taxes (which is why they've orchestrated this charade). All the central government has to do is freeze transfers and they are fucked. What are they going to do, create new taxes? Issue IOUs?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 03:13:07 PM
That might've been true if it was still the previous guys (Mas & Co.). But the guys now running the government? They are true believers. Nope, they are going all the way.

It's not like cutting cash transfers is going to make much of a difference in just a few weeks, anyway. Too late for that. It's full head-on crash.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:20:39 PM
Just wait until the police, nurses, doctors, teachers and all the rest stop receiving a salary and cannot afford to pay their mortgages.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on September 06, 2017, 03:26:26 PM
The EU should implement a rule where breakaway states can't join the union. it'd stop this stupid stuff.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 06, 2017, 03:27:07 PM
Will the traitors hang?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:31:07 PM
Quote from: HVC on September 06, 2017, 03:26:26 PM
The EU should implement a rule where breakaway states can't join the union. it'd stop this stupid stuff.

It doesn't really need to. Accession is a matter where all countries have veto.

If Catalonia is ever going to be independent and join the EU, it needs to acquire independence not using confrontation, but by reaching an agreement with the rest of Spain.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 03:31:35 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:20:39 PM
Just wait until the police, nurses, doctors, teachers and all the rest stop receiving a salary and cannot afford to pay their mortgages.

That's fine, but they'll declare independence before the next salary is due  :P

I'm only half-joking. Part of the separatist strategy is playing with dates very tightly (it's not like they care that there's a proper campaign or debate), so that the Spanish gov doesn't have actual time to do some of the stuff that they could do. For example there's no material time to approve the suspension of the Catalan autonomy before the referendum, and if they cut cash transfers it will take at least 3 months before the Catalan government has liquidity problems.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:36:42 PM
So what?

Catalonian politicians can declare independence. That doesn't make it so.

Businesses aren't suddenly going to line up to send them money (VAT, SS contributions and income tax from workers, business tax, excise taxes). Not in a week, not in a year.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zanza on September 06, 2017, 03:38:40 PM
Arrest them for treason?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:39:32 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 06, 2017, 03:38:40 PM
Arrest them for treason?

It's not a crime to call for a referendum, illegal or otherwise. To use public funds to pay for it though ...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 03:43:53 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:36:42 PM
So what?

Catalonian politicians can declare independence. That doesn't make it so.

Businesses aren't suddenly going to line up to send them money (VAT, SS contributions and income tax from workers, business tax, excise taxes). Not in a week, not in a year.

When you have 40-50% of the population voting for parties willing to run roughshod through constitutional and democratic principles in order to achieve MUH FREEDOM, you can bet that unilateral independence is going to have an effect. Sure, long term or even mid term, unilateral independence is not viable, but you can bet that lots of damage can be done in the interim. And I don't mean just metaphorical damage.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zanza on September 06, 2017, 03:50:08 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:39:32 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 06, 2017, 03:38:40 PM
Arrest them for treason?

It's not a crime to call for a referendum, illegal or otherwise. To use public funds to pay for it though ...
Declaring independence might be a crime though? It would be a crime here as soon as there was any force behind it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on September 06, 2017, 03:54:54 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:31:07 PM
Quote from: HVC on September 06, 2017, 03:26:26 PM
The EU should implement a rule where breakaway states can't join the union. it'd stop this stupid stuff.

It doesn't really need to. Accession is a matter where all countries have veto.

If Catalonia is ever going to be independent and join the EU, it needs to acquire independence not using confrontation, but by reaching an agreement with the rest of Spain.

Yeah, but make it explicit. People are delusional (look at brexit).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Jacob on September 06, 2017, 03:56:23 PM
Well that's going to be a bit of a cluster fuck. Good thing it's happening now. 2017 was shaping up to be pretty uneventful until now, politically speaking....
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:56:48 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 03:43:53 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:36:42 PM
So what?

Catalonian politicians can declare independence. That doesn't make it so.

Businesses aren't suddenly going to line up to send them money (VAT, SS contributions and income tax from workers, business tax, excise taxes). Not in a week, not in a year.

When you have 40-50% of the population voting for parties willing to run roughshod through constitutional and democratic principles in order to achieve MUH FREEDOM, you can bet that unilateral independence is going to have an effect. Sure, long term or even mid term, unilateral independence is not viable, but you can bet that lots of damage can be done in the interim. And I don't mean just metaphorical damage.

Very true. And yeah, I know there's a big separatist segment. Hell, all my gf's coworkers will vote for independence. One wonders if they realize that their employer has offices all over Spain their jobs could be relocated to if shit hits the fan (most likely Madrid or Seville).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 03:58:35 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 06, 2017, 03:50:08 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:39:32 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 06, 2017, 03:38:40 PM
Arrest them for treason?

It's not a crime to call for a referendum, illegal or otherwise. To use public funds to pay for it though ...
Declaring independence might be a crime though? It would be a crime here as soon as there was any force behind it.

Calling and holding an independence vote is not a crime in itself, rather the necessary steps you have to take in order to call it (i.e. be in contempt of the Constitutional Court).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 04:00:54 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:56:48 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 03:43:53 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:36:42 PM
So what?

Catalonian politicians can declare independence. That doesn't make it so.

Businesses aren't suddenly going to line up to send them money (VAT, SS contributions and income tax from workers, business tax, excise taxes). Not in a week, not in a year.

When you have 40-50% of the population voting for parties willing to run roughshod through constitutional and democratic principles in order to achieve MUH FREEDOM, you can bet that unilateral independence is going to have an effect. Sure, long term or even mid term, unilateral independence is not viable, but you can bet that lots of damage can be done in the interim. And I don't mean just metaphorical damage.

Very true. And yeah, I know there's a big separatist segment. Hell, all my gf's coworkers will vote for independence. One wonders if they realize that their employer has offices all over Spain their jobs could be relocated to if shit hits the fan (most likely Madrid or Seville).

Yeah, the naivete of not facing the consequences of their vote is very brexitesque. But it will make them feel good and stick it to The Man in Madrid!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 06, 2017, 04:12:04 PM
What the hell is wrong with people?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on September 06, 2017, 05:04:34 PM
Why would the holding of a referendum be illegal?  That sounds like part of the problem right there.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on September 06, 2017, 05:51:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 06, 2017, 04:12:04 PM
What the hell is wrong with people?

London independence! :swiss:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 06, 2017, 06:25:34 PM
Quote from: Barrister on September 06, 2017, 05:04:34 PM
Why would the holding of a referendum be illegal?

No reason. That is why it isn't.  It has been stated over and over again that there is nothing illegal besides maybe an abuse of funds.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 06:27:23 PM
It's illegal, just not a "crime".

The Spanish Constitution doesn't recognize the right of self-determination of any single constituent unit.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 06, 2017, 06:28:02 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 06:27:23 PM
It's illegal, just not a crime.

The Spanish Constitution doesn't recognize the right of self-determination of any constituent unit.

The declaring of independence is illegal. Having the referendum isn't...isn't that right?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 06:39:16 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 06, 2017, 06:28:02 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 06:27:23 PM
It's illegal, just not a crime.

The Spanish Constitution doesn't recognize the right of self-determination of any constituent unit.

The declaring of independence is illegal. Having the referendum isn't...isn't that right?

Let's see:

a) A private actor can hold one, and there's been plenty at a local level. Just don't expect them to be binding...
b) The regional government can't. They can only hold referenda on stuff they have devolved powers in. "Should we divide this or that county", "should we segregate this town". (to cite some examples of actual referenda). Since they don't have the power to declare independence, the referendum is henceforth not allowed. But there's no "4 years and 10 lashings for holding an independence vote" in our criminal code. If they pursue a referendum they aren't allowed to call, they will find themselves in contempt of court, prevarication, misuse of public funds... etc... That's what happened with the one they celebrated 2 years ago.
c) It's a bit unclear if the central government could hold an independence referendum. It hasn't been constitutionally tested and the central government isn't particularly interested in testing it. It's pretty clear that it could only be held in the whole of Spain, though.
d) For anything else, you have to reform the Constitution.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: DGuller on September 06, 2017, 06:45:31 PM
Come on, Spain, you already played that part, let Syria have it this time.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 06, 2017, 07:44:59 PM
Mah Spanish ETF.  :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on September 06, 2017, 07:57:24 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 06:27:23 PM
The Spanish Constitution doesn't recognize the right of self-determination of any single constituent unit.

This is funny beyond belief: No Constitution recognizes a right to self-determination. Doesn't make secession any less of a reality if a majority of a population in a given constituent unit wants it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 06, 2017, 08:03:25 PM
Well it would certainly make it more of a reality if it did.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Monoriu on September 06, 2017, 09:03:45 PM
I still ask the same question: if independence happens, Barcelona football club will play who in the league competition?  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 07, 2017, 01:43:30 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on September 06, 2017, 09:03:45 PM
I still ask the same question: if independence happens, Barcelona football club will play who in the league competition?  :P

According to Catalonian-born Manuel Valls, former prime minister of France, in the French league.  :D

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F2ANLuTc.jpg%253C%2Fspan%253E%253Cspan%253E&hash=0610c88baad0251073c627873912451c00ce24cf)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 07, 2017, 02:49:13 AM
Quote from: Drakken on September 06, 2017, 07:57:24 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 06:27:23 PM
The Spanish Constitution doesn't recognize the right of self-determination of any single constituent unit.

This is funny beyond belief: No Constitution recognizes a right to self-determination. Doesn't make secession any less of a reality if a majority of a population in a given constituent unit wants it.

That would be the case... if the separatists weren't creating a Constitutional crisis on the back of a popular vote loss in the last regional election (while they retained a majority in parliament because yay electoral law).

If they wanted this, they should have tried to convince the rest of us and build up a real majority for the referendum instead of trying to sneak it through parliament with disregard to the law of the land. There's also the fact that they held a vote in 2015 where less than 30% of the electoral census voted "yes" to independence.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 07, 2017, 09:09:57 AM
Personally I would agree to a referendum if it had built-in safeguards for those displaced as a result and it was done at a local district level (after which the borders would be drawn).

Just like with Brexit, the richest parts of Catalonia (Greater Barcelona and northern Tarragona) are the least likely to vote for secession. Which is ironic considering that the main argument for independence is that Catalonia sends away more money than it gets back.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 07, 2017, 09:54:03 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 06, 2017, 04:12:04 PM
What the hell is wrong with people?

I think the answer was posted earlier.

Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:06:34 PM
Meh.

At the end of the day, it all comes down to money, and unlike Basques Catalonian politicians have no real control over taxes (which is why they've orchestrated this charade).

Looks like brinksmanship to press for a better autonomy deal.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 07, 2017, 10:04:08 AM
That's how it all started - in 2012 the Catalan regional government petitioned for a new tax regime and it was rebuked by the Spanish gov, and the nationalist parties began pushing for independence. However, since then the leaders of the nationalist movement have been replaced by very ideological true believers, and more radical parties (like CUP) have come to the fore. It might be a "Guns of August" situation, where each other side rises the ante expecting the others to blink first, only to reach a point of no return. I'm not sure we are at a point where reconciliation can be reached.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on September 07, 2017, 10:13:26 AM
I know the historical precedence for the separatist movement for the basque, but what's the deal with the movement in Catalonia? The general populous that is, not the politicians.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 07, 2017, 10:22:01 AM
Generalitat
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2017, 10:40:43 AM
Quote from: HVC on September 07, 2017, 10:13:26 AM
I know the historical precedence for the separatist movement for the basque, but what's the deal with the movement in Catalonia? The general populous that is, not the politicians.

I always thought the Catalans are great poster children for annoying Euro-nationalists. They are not particularly oppressed currently but have a long list of grievances that stretch back centuries against numerous oppressors that often have nothing at all to do with nationality. Their big national day is the siege of Barcelona, and the resulting defeat of the pro-Habsburg forces, by the Bourbons. Because being strong supporters of nationalism is what the Habsburgs were all about don't you know.

And that is another annoying quality: your big national holiday being a military defeat. Obnoxious.

But I am sure it makes more sense to celedhring who lives there.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on September 07, 2017, 10:48:08 AM
Quote from: HVC on September 07, 2017, 10:13:26 AM
I know the historical precedence for the separatist movement for the basque, but what's the deal with the movement in Catalonia? The general populous that is, not the politicians.

It has a strong streak of "rich people's kind of separatism", with the "we're rich so why should we support the rest of the country, bunch of moochers", coupled with one of the whiniest and more victimistic attitudes you can imagine. And I say that as a person who is in the "support for decentralisation" side of the slider, so to speak.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2017, 10:49:42 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 07, 2017, 10:48:08 AM
coupled with one of the whiniest and more victimistic attitudes you can imagine.

Ah. So see sometimes ones view from far away can be accurate :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 07, 2017, 10:50:19 AM
Pretty much every region in Spain has a nationalist party. That's how we roll.

It all comes back to the old EU centralization slider. Like in most other European monarchies, the King would grab whatever opportunity presented itself to increase his power at the nobles' cost. Local or regional bodies known as Cortes and privileges known as Fueros were an obstacle to this absolutist desires.

Aragón, for example, lost theirs when the Justice harbored Phillipe II's disgraced secretary. Catalonia, after joining the Austrian side during the War of Succession that the Bourbonists won. Basques and Navarres have managed to keep theirs, despite all odds. That's why they are the only ones that have an independent tax authority.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2017, 10:52:39 AM
Hey I am all for federal governments, I naturally think those are the best since I live in one.

Catalonia seems especially obnoxious though.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on September 07, 2017, 10:55:40 AM
Spain is basically a federal country in all but name, our regions have way more powers than many other countries' regions. Making this plain and obvious in the constitution seems to be taboo, though.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 07, 2017, 11:00:51 AM
There's been periods of cultural suppression against Catalans, that can't be denied (and no, we haven't been the only ones oppressed, Spain has been a very sucky place for Spaniards throughout history). My mother can't write in Catalan because schools were forbidden to teach it, she officially has a Spanish name because the registrar wouldn't register a Catalan name when she was born. She is intensely separatist as a result. But that oppression finished... 40 years ago? Even asshole civil registrars have died out by this time. Spain's fine (not perfect) now. But nationalists feed on that resentment and pass it down. The whines are unbearable, it's like Generalissimo Franco (who's still dead) personally rakes them on coals every fucking night or something.


Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 07, 2017, 11:44:33 AM
This reminds me that I have tickets for the train tomorrow. Maybe I should grab the passport just in case.  :lmfao:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Jacob on September 07, 2017, 11:50:41 AM
Doesn't sound like celedhring is a die hard Catalonian nationalist....
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2017, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 03:43:53 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 06, 2017, 03:36:42 PM
So what?

Catalonian politicians can declare independence. That doesn't make it so.

Businesses aren't suddenly going to line up to send them money (VAT, SS contributions and income tax from workers, business tax, excise taxes). Not in a week, not in a year.

When you have 40-50% of the population voting for parties willing to run roughshod through constitutional and democratic principles in order to achieve MUH FREEDOM, you can bet that unilateral independence is going to have an effect. Sure, long term or even mid term, unilateral independence is not viable, but you can bet that lots of damage can be done in the interim. And I don't mean just metaphorical damage.

Maybe Spain shouldn't have behaved like it did, running roughshod over made agreements and behaving in a fashion that is better suited for Russia rather than a western state?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 07, 2017, 12:46:38 PM
Huh?
:huh:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2017, 12:51:45 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2017, 12:30:03 PM
Maybe Spain shouldn't have behaved like it did, running roughshod over made agreements and behaving in a fashion that is better suited for Russia rather than a western state?

Maybe you should be more specific so he can address what exactly it is you are referring to?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on September 07, 2017, 01:00:24 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 07, 2017, 12:51:45 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2017, 12:30:03 PM
Maybe Spain shouldn't have behaved like it did, running roughshod over made agreements and behaving in a fashion that is better suited for Russia rather than a western state?

Maybe you should be more specific so he can address what exactly it is you are referring to?

Isabella was a bitch maybe?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 07, 2017, 01:11:56 PM
Quote from: HVC on September 07, 2017, 01:00:24 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 07, 2017, 12:51:45 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 07, 2017, 12:30:03 PM
Maybe Spain shouldn't have behaved like it did, running roughshod over made agreements and behaving in a fashion that is better suited for Russia rather than a western state?

Maybe you should be more specific so he can address what exactly it is you are referring to?

Isabella was a bitch maybe?

I thought maybe he was talking about Francisco Franco but it was not like Spain was a democracy when he was in charge so that would be silly.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 07, 2017, 01:32:23 PM
Probably a Treaty of Tortillas thing.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tonitrus on September 07, 2017, 01:42:52 PM
Quote from: The Brain on September 07, 2017, 01:32:23 PM
Probably a Treaty of Tortillas thing.

Isn't that on Taco Bell's secret menu?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 07, 2017, 01:46:13 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 07, 2017, 01:42:52 PM
Quote from: The Brain on September 07, 2017, 01:32:23 PM
Probably a Treaty of Tortillas thing.

Isn't that on Taco Bell's secret menu?

I don't know, they never tell me anything.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Jacob on September 07, 2017, 01:53:41 PM
I too am pretty interested in hearing the pro-separatist point of view. I vaguely remember bits about federal Spanish shittiness as well, but no details.

In this particular case I don't have even mild opinions in either direction.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 07, 2017, 02:46:58 PM
For one thing, it's not clear to me how much Catalonian nationalism is Scottish-style cultural nationalism or Lega Nordish resentment of subsidizing southerners.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 07, 2017, 03:02:00 PM
A bit of both, really.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on September 07, 2017, 05:33:30 PM
And in some extreme cases it converges into the "we're floating balls of light being prevented from being basically Scandinavian by the knuckle dragging thugs in Madrid" delightful combo.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 07, 2017, 11:35:44 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 07, 2017, 12:46:38 PM
Huh?
:huh:

Flemish solidarity.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 09, 2017, 03:45:46 AM
Most large Catalan cities - and critically, Barcelona - have denied the Catalan government the use of polling stations for the referendum. Support for separatism is lower in cities (except in the north), and larger in rural areas, so that was expected. The thing is already stillborn before a single police officer makes a single arrest.

At the end of the day, the separatists haven't even bothered to try to convince the rest of the Catalans before going to battle against Spain. If they mustered, say, 66%+ sustained support, the union would be untenable in the long term, no matter the illegality of independence under the current Spanish constitutional order. But nope, it's all subterfuge and jumping over a cliff for... what? Fueling more victim complex for another generation?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on September 09, 2017, 01:04:08 PM
Is there really no Spanish law against sedition or insurrection?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 09, 2017, 01:08:35 PM
There is, but it hasn't been deployed so far.

The Spanish gov seems to aim to jail as few people as possible, and fine and disqualify from office the rest.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 10, 2017, 02:54:15 AM
If anybody harbored doubts over which side to pick, Assange has come out in force in favor of the separatists.  ;)

(and no, the Spanish gov is far from perfect, but it's definitely the lesser of the two evils here).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 11, 2017, 04:19:16 PM
Today we had a separatist mega-demo in Barcelona for Catalonia's national day. It's been a success (350,000 - 1,000,000 people depending on whom you chose to believe) but they fell short of the attendances of similar demos in these past years.

Key day is going to be tomorrow. The Catalan Supreme Court has summoned the heads of the national and regional polices to consult with them, with a mandate to stop the referendum. If the Catalan regional police - which are under the authority of the Catalan regional government - signals that it won't follow the court's mandate, we will fully enter "party like it's the 1930s" territory.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 11, 2017, 04:30:17 PM
Send in the Cossacks.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Solmyr on September 12, 2017, 04:45:09 AM
Quote from: The Brain on September 11, 2017, 04:30:17 PM
Send in the CossacksTercios.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 09:25:14 AM
Quote from: The Brain on September 11, 2017, 04:30:17 PM
Send in the Cossacks International Brigades.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 09:27:34 AM
I mean at the end of the day if the Catalans are willing to sacrifice everything for independence there is nothing anybody would do about it. I mean it is not like Spain would ever seriously send in the troops or something unless some kind of civil war breaks out there.

I just find the justification weak and I don't see how it benefits the individual citizens of Catalonia at all.

Just like Brexit and Trump there is only so much that can be done when a population narrowly votes for suicide.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 09:28:29 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 09:27:34 AM
I mean at the end of the day if the Catalans are willing to sacrifice everything for independence there is nothing anybody would do about it. I mean it is not like Spain would ever seriously send in the troops or something unless some kind of civil war breaks out there.

Uh... don't give the Spaniards any ideas.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 09:30:41 AM
Quote from: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 09:28:29 AM
Uh...

I mean if loyalists inside Catalonia start getting slapped down the ultra-nationalists. The ultra-nationalists would have to start it. Otherwise I cannot imagine Madrid having the political capital to do it even if they wanted to (which they probably do not).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: frunk on September 12, 2017, 09:34:15 AM
Quote from: The Brain on September 11, 2017, 04:30:17 PM
Send in the Cossacks International Brigades. Clowns, oh they're already here.

Send in the Clowns (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzLHU6S4oic)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 09:50:47 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 09:30:41 AM

I mean if loyalists inside Catalonia start getting slapped down the ultra-nationalists. The ultra-nationalists would have to start it. Otherwise I cannot imagine Madrid having the political capital to do it even if they wanted to (which they probably do not).

You know we are talking of the same country where part of the Spanish Armed Forces invaded the Cortes in an attempted military putsch in 1981, right? May look quaint, but let's remember that the Third Military Region in Valencia mutined in support of the coup, and actual tanks were in the streets of Valencia to back up the putsch. Real, military might. It took the King to directly order the mutineers to stand down and give democracy a chance to prevent a new civil war because Juan Carlos, as Commander-in-Chief, was the only person they would accept taking orders from.

That was merely 35 years ago, a mere generation. So... yeah.

I cannot see how the Catalonian government wanting to go ahead with a referendum clearly trumpeted as both illegitimate and illegal both by all three central branches of government - the Spanish Supreme Court, the Cortes, and the Spanish government - can lead to them suddenly throwing their hands in the air if the Catalonians keep insisting. The indissoluble character of the unity of the Spanish Kingdom in the damn Constitution is in black and white, for crying out loud. If Catalonia goes, so will all other Spanish regions, like say... the Basque region (ETA-Batasuna, remember?).

This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous -  it gives a legal and constitutional framework to keep a seceding body in by use of force. We are entering brinksmanship territory now, and a constitutional crisis. I can totally see the Spanish government send troops there if Catalonia really insists in defying the government. This, while considering that Spain has still not even begun to make peace with its Civil War history yet, and that it is still taboo to discuss the legacy of the Franco regime. And there's a reason why...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on September 12, 2017, 10:03:40 AM
We have, thankfully, come a long way since 1981, and the armed forces of today don't look or act at all like the ones from back then. Use of military force is beyond the question.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 10:07:19 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 12, 2017, 10:03:40 AM
We have, thankfully, come a long way since 1981, and the armed forces of today don't look or act at all like the ones from back then. Use of military force is beyond the question.

I don't know. The more the Catalonian government insists in being pig-headed and defiant, the bigger the crisis is growing, and that's when it gets slippery.

I really hope you are right, and maybe you are. I won't hide it is getting worrying - and it should be for the Catalonia population.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 10:18:58 AM
Quote from: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 09:50:47 AM
This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on September 12, 2017, 02:37:41 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 10:18:58 AM
Quote from: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 09:50:47 AM
This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.

How would this reduce the Catalonian standard of living?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 12, 2017, 02:42:21 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 12, 2017, 02:37:41 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 10:18:58 AM
Quote from: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 09:50:47 AM
This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.

How would this reduce the Catalonian standard of living?

Leaving the EU probably wouldn't help business.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 12, 2017, 02:52:47 PM
Quote from: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 10:07:19 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 12, 2017, 10:03:40 AM
We have, thankfully, come a long way since 1981, and the armed forces of today don't look or act at all like the ones from back then. Use of military force is beyond the question.

I don't know. The more the Catalonian government insists in being pig-headed and defiant, the bigger the crisis is growing, and that's when it gets slippery.

I really hope you are right, and maybe you are. I won't hide it is getting worrying - and it should be for the Catalonia population.

We went over this at the start of the thread. There's a whole lot of things that Madrid can do before sending in the tanks. They can issue arrest warrants for those caught in illegal acts, and if those are not followed by the regional police they'll have grounds to freeze money transfers (de facto suspending autonomy).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on September 12, 2017, 03:04:56 PM
Quote from: The Brain on September 12, 2017, 02:42:21 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 12, 2017, 02:37:41 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 10:18:58 AM
Quote from: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 09:50:47 AM
This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.

How would this reduce the Catalonian standard of living?

Leaving the EU probably wouldn't help business.

What if they got back in the EU?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 12, 2017, 03:06:07 PM
We wouldn't get back into the EU anytime soon. If only per encourager les autres. Spain has veto, too.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 03:10:17 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 12, 2017, 03:04:56 PM
What if they got back in the EU?

For somebody who is so anti-EU you sure know very little about it :P

Every country has a hard veto so they would need Spain (and everybody else) to support their secession if they want to get back in. And adding more bureaucracy and international borders is generally just bad for business.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 12, 2017, 03:11:17 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 12, 2017, 03:04:56 PM
Quote from: The Brain on September 12, 2017, 02:42:21 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 12, 2017, 02:37:41 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 10:18:58 AM
Quote from: Drakken on September 12, 2017, 09:50:47 AM
This is why I find the idea of forbidding any possibility of legal, democratic secession in a Constitution not only laughable but absolutely dangerous

I don't think it is actually either of those things at all and I think you are being paranoid. The fact you are quoting ancient history that the locals think is absurd should calm you.

I think if they had an overwhelming democratic mandate there would be very little Madrid would do to stop them. Especially if they had legitimate grievances that people elsewhere in Spain agreed with. The fact they have no such thing and instead are relying on legal tricks and smoke and mirrors and citing the acts of a long dead dictator (and absolute monarchies before that) as their justification is what makes this potentially dangerous.

Of course even if they did go peacefully and legally it will be bad for the Catalonian population. They have nothing to gain from this besides a shrinking economy and reduced standard of living. But I don't think it will be violent unless it breaks out inside Catalonia.

How would this reduce the Catalonian standard of living?

Leaving the EU probably wouldn't help business.

What if they got back in the EU?

At best you're looking at years in the wilderness. How many businesses in Catalonia will move to within the EU?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 12, 2017, 03:19:45 PM
AFAIK there'd be no exit negotiations á la Brexit since they don't exit the EU like a member state would, they simply exit by no longer being part of Spain. I don't see how they could seriously negotiate with Catalonia until it is sovereign. As soon as the EU recognizes an independent Catalonia they are out instantly. Lots of regulation will just evaporate making some sectors (that are heavily regulated and depend on cross-border activity) no longer viable.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zanza on September 12, 2017, 03:23:19 PM
There is precedent: when Algeria became independent they immediately ceased to be part of the EEC. The opposite happened when West Germany annexed East Germany.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on September 12, 2017, 04:09:22 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 03:10:17 PM
For somebody who is so anti-EU you sure know very little about it :P

Back off, bird killer :angry:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 12, 2017, 05:04:37 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 12, 2017, 03:06:07 PM
We wouldn't get back into the EU anytime soon. If only per encourager les autres. Spain has veto, too.

And yet taking a hardline on Catexit would be kind of cutting the nose to spite the face.
I would assume that an independent Catalonia would port over most existing EU law and regs to national law, and immediately seek EEA status.  Does that require unanimous consent from every EU state?  In any case, hard to think of a reasoned basis for refusing.
Once they're in EFTA/EEA seems to me full EU membership would be just a matter of time.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: dps on September 12, 2017, 05:07:32 PM
Quote from: The Larch on September 12, 2017, 10:03:40 AMUse of military force is beyond the question.

If that's the case, you probably ought to just disband your military and save the money.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 12, 2017, 05:45:41 PM
If the only way to keep Catalonia part of Spain is through the force of arms, then Catalonia won't be a part of Spain anymore. Armed intervention would be politically untenable.

As said though, there's many ways to go before that becomes the only resort. Today the Catalan regional police force has signaled that it would abide by the Court's instructions to stop the referendum, so any kind of full out rebellion is already dead in the water.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 06:17:14 PM
Probably just as well if the opposition is boycotting.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zanza on September 12, 2017, 07:19:51 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 12, 2017, 05:04:37 PMseek EEA status.  Does that require unanimous consent from every EU state?  In any case, hard to think of a reasoned basis for refusing.
Once they're in EFTA/EEA seems to me full EU membership would be just a matter of time.
Croatia is a full EU member but only a provisional EEA member.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 07:24:54 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 12, 2017, 04:09:22 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 12, 2017, 03:10:17 PM
For somebody who is so anti-EU you sure know very little about it :P

Back off, bird killer :angry:

Birds are dinosaurs. Do you really want your children attacked by dinosaurs?

Think of the children!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tonitrus on September 12, 2017, 08:03:14 PM
If Catalonia exits, Spain could just use the U.S. strategy circa 1861 (before the shooting started)...just ignore it and not recognize it.

If some kind of nascent Catalonian authority starts a fight with the feds, react appropriately to individual cases.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 13, 2017, 02:28:57 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 12, 2017, 08:03:14 PM
If Catalonia exits, Spain could just use the U.S. strategy circa 1861 (before the shooting started)...just ignore it and not recognize it.

If some kind of nascent Catalonian authority starts a fight with the feds, react appropriately to individual cases.

If at all possible I think Spain should spare ordinary Catalonians the ordeal of having to serve (and pay taxes to) two masters.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 15, 2017, 09:37:44 AM
So yesterday the Generalitat told the central government it would stop reporting what it does with money.

In response today the government has assumed control of Catalonia's spending.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 15, 2017, 10:13:02 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 15, 2017, 09:37:44 AM
So yesterday the Generalitat told the central government it would stop reporting what it does with money.

In response today the government has assumed control of Catalonia's spending.

Is this money handed over by the central government?  Someone upstream said Catalonia has no taxing authority so I'm a little confused where this money comes from.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 15, 2017, 10:26:46 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 15, 2017, 10:13:02 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 15, 2017, 09:37:44 AM
So yesterday the Generalitat told the central government it would stop reporting what it does with money.

In response today the government has assumed control of Catalonia's spending.

Is this money handed over by the central government?  Someone upstream said Catalonia has no taxing authority so I'm a little confused where this money comes from.

There's two things at play here.

1) The Central Government collects most taxes (income, VAT, and corporate, all the big ones) and then distributes them to the regions throughout the year, usually in batches.
2) If additionally, a region uses credit facilities from the central government (which can borrow at a much better rate) they have to get their spending approved by the central government, and as an extreme measure the central government can step in and seize control of the entire budget. That's what they are doing right now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:29:47 AM
With that being the case I wonder exactly what the Catalan ultra-nationalists' plan is? Surely they had to have figured the central government would do that. So getting Madrid to do that must be part of their strategy somehow.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 15, 2017, 10:37:08 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:29:47 AM
With that being the case I wonder exactly what the Catalan ultra-nationalists' plan is? Surely they had to have figured the central government would do that. So getting Madrid to do that must be part of their strategy somehow.

They already have enacted a law and deployed a Catalan IRS, which would enable them to collect taxes directly. But this totally falls into the "two  masters" thing Brain was talking about, and I'm pretty sure most people would keep paying taxes to Spain just to be safe.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:39:13 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 15, 2017, 10:37:08 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:29:47 AM
With that being the case I wonder exactly what the Catalan ultra-nationalists' plan is? Surely they had to have figured the central government would do that. So getting Madrid to do that must be part of their strategy somehow.

They already have enacted a law and deployed a Catalan IRS, which would enable them to collect taxes directly. But this totally falls into the "two  masters" thing Brain was talking about, and I'm pretty sure most people would keep paying taxes to Spain just to be safe.

I figured. Though when the first thing you do in your independence revolution is deploy tax collectors you might have a hard time building a large coalition of supporters.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on September 15, 2017, 10:41:50 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:39:13 AM
I figured. Though when the first thing you do in your independence revolution is deploy tax collectors you might have a hard time building a large coalition of supporters.

It worked for Americans.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:43:37 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on September 15, 2017, 10:41:50 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:39:13 AM
I figured. Though when the first thing you do in your independence revolution is deploy tax collectors you might have a hard time building a large coalition of supporters.

It worked for Americans.

We had been collecting taxes for decades because the British forgot they had American colonies for about 100 years while they fought civil wars. It was the British who deployed the extra tax collectors.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 15, 2017, 10:51:26 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 15, 2017, 09:37:44 AM
So yesterday the Generalitat told the central government it would stop reporting what it does with money.

How could that possibly work?  Aren't they obligated to make their records available to the public?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 15, 2017, 10:55:26 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:39:13 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 15, 2017, 10:37:08 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:29:47 AM
With that being the case I wonder exactly what the Catalan ultra-nationalists' plan is? Surely they had to have figured the central government would do that. So getting Madrid to do that must be part of their strategy somehow.

They already have enacted a law and deployed a Catalan IRS, which would enable them to collect taxes directly. But this totally falls into the "two  masters" thing Brain was talking about, and I'm pretty sure most people would keep paying taxes to Spain just to be safe.

I figured. Though when the first thing you do in your independence revolution is deploy tax collectors you might have a hard time building a large coalition of supporters.

To be frank, I think they are aware this is doomed to fail - the forces are too uneven. I think the only plan here is to force Spain to the bargaining table, or make them look bad in the international press (police shutting down political rallies, seizing ballot boxes, etc...) so the rest of the EU forces them to the bargaining table so this goes away (at least that's the nationalists' calculus, I'm not that sure the EU countries are that keen on rewarding secesionists).

There's also a game of chicken component going on, where nobody has backed down in years because it would hurt them politically, and now we're here as a result.

Constitutional reform was needed in Spain before this happened, the problem is that now the well is truly poisoned.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 15, 2017, 10:58:33 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 15, 2017, 10:51:26 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 15, 2017, 09:37:44 AM
So yesterday the Generalitat told the central government it would stop reporting what it does with money.

How could that possibly work?  Aren't they obligated to make their records available to the public?

Further explanation: Catalonia is using Spain's credit to finance itself (many other regions do the same). Spain has a much better credit rating than Catalonia so it saves money to the state as a whole. The condition is that the central government has to approve Catalonia's spending. What Catalonia will stop doing is sending the bills to Madrid for approval.

As a counter-measure, Madrid will take over Catalonia's payment processing, which is allowed under the law when a region doesn't honor the agreement.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on September 15, 2017, 12:29:59 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:43:37 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on September 15, 2017, 10:41:50 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 15, 2017, 10:39:13 AM
I figured. Though when the first thing you do in your independence revolution is deploy tax collectors you might have a hard time building a large coalition of supporters.

It worked for Americans.

We had been collecting taxes for decades because the British forgot they had American colonies for about 100 years while they fought civil wars. It was the British who deployed the extra tax collectors.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whiskey_Rebellion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whiskey_Rebellion)

Quote
The so-called "whiskey tax" was the first tax imposed on a domestic product by the newly formed federal government. It became law in 1791, and was intended to generate revenue for the war debt incurred during the Revolutionary War. The tax applied to all distilled spirits, but American whiskey was by far the country's most popular distilled beverage in the 18th century, so the excise became widely known as a "whiskey tax". Farmers of the western frontier were accustomed to distilling their surplus rye, barley, wheat, corn, or fermented grain mixtures into whiskey. These farmers resisted the tax. In these regions, whiskey often served as a medium of exchange. Many of the resisters were war veterans who believed that they were fighting for the principles of the American Revolution, in particular against taxation without local representation, while the federal government maintained that the taxes were the legal expression of Congressional taxation powers.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 15, 2017, 12:53:20 PM
Yeah, I don't think a tax implemented 15 years later after peace had been achieved supports Oex's point.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on September 16, 2017, 10:33:53 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on September 15, 2017, 12:53:20 PM
Yeah, I don't think a tax implemented 15 years later after peace had been achieved supports Oex's point.

You are responding to viper, the master of the non sequitur.  Note that he doesn't make any claims, just posts, Timmay-like, an irrelevant quote (from Wikipedia, no less).  Just move on and ignore the troll.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 20, 2017, 03:21:28 AM
12 members (undersecretary level and below) of the Catalan government have been arrested today for organizing the referendum, under orders of the court. The atmosphere is heating up, badly.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on September 20, 2017, 07:42:34 AM
Let me guess, separatists are calling them political prisoners?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 20, 2017, 08:08:41 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 20, 2017, 07:42:34 AM
Let me guess, separatists are calling them political prisoners?

Yes.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on September 20, 2017, 08:11:42 AM
I know the Spanish economy hasn't been particularly healthy in recent memory, but going full retard over this by the pro-independents seems unwarranted.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 20, 2017, 08:22:51 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 20, 2017, 07:42:34 AM
Let me guess, separatists are calling them political prisoners?

Well, aren't they?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on September 20, 2017, 11:30:21 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on September 20, 2017, 08:22:51 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 20, 2017, 07:42:34 AM
Let me guess, separatists are calling them political prisoners?

Well, aren't they?

Well, are they?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 20, 2017, 11:48:13 AM
Someone imprisoned for their political activity? Yeah, this fits the definition.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 20, 2017, 01:09:44 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 20, 2017, 08:11:42 AM
I know the Spanish economy hasn't been particularly healthy in recent memory, but going full retard over this by the pro-independents seems unwarranted.

This goes waaaaaaay beyond the crisis (though it has been useful to fuel the flames).

Quote from: Eddie Teach on September 20, 2017, 11:48:13 AM
Someone imprisoned for their political activity? Yeah, this fits the definition.

Technically they will be imprisoned for illicitly funneling public funds to further their own political goals. I'm guessing that's also illegal in the US.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on September 20, 2017, 01:11:13 PM
#vindicated

For the record, I now oppose the separatists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 20, 2017, 01:18:37 PM
Anyway, the good news is Iglesias seems intent on destroying Podemos from within. Too bad the Socialists are complete morons. It really seems to me that PP will be handed a sizable majority next elections on a silver platter.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 21, 2017, 03:01:20 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 07, 2017, 01:11:56 PM


I thought maybe he was talking about Francisco Franco but it was not like Spain was a democracy when he was in charge so that would be silly.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.lemde.fr%2F2017%2F09%2F21%2F0%2F0%2F3497%2F5235%2F534%2F0%2F60%2F0%2Ff96c322_28709-tzzpo9.3u9pb9.jpg&hash=6e5befb2b324ebfabda9f57195f7e07e333c0436)

In other news, according to a Catalonian nationalist, Generalissimo Franco is still (not) dead.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 21, 2017, 03:03:35 AM
Dude needs to work on his Spanish.  That's not even close.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 21, 2017, 03:19:20 AM
I'm going full Tim today. The atmosphere is really heated and I can't see this ending without - at least - street violence.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 21, 2017, 03:47:47 AM
It is very worrying. I think the separatists have played their cards well (leaving morality aside of course).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on September 21, 2017, 04:47:52 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 21, 2017, 03:47:47 AM
It is very worrying. I think the separatists have played their cards well (leaving morality aside of course).

Do you think their Scottish counterparts are taking notes?

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on September 21, 2017, 04:51:10 AM
The Spanish government is really doing their best to get a leave vote aren't they with all this trying to stop the thing even happening.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 21, 2017, 05:02:30 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 21, 2017, 04:47:52 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 21, 2017, 03:47:47 AM
It is very worrying. I think the separatists have played their cards well (leaving morality aside of course).

Do you think their Scottish counterparts are taking notes?

They are on the back foot at the moment. I think the SNP annoyed a number of lukewarm supporters by pressing for a referendum just two years after the last one. There are a number of Scots who would "quite like" to be independent but it is not a constant burning issue for them. Meanwhile the formerly superior Scottish educational system now underperforms England's......on the SNP's watch; the SNP is starting to be judged on its incumbency. I think we have dodged that particular bullet for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on September 21, 2017, 06:21:22 AM
The SNP look set for a split between the right nationalists (anti EU and anti UK) and the left nationals (pro eu and and Uk) IMO.
Scottish independence has become very tied to avoiding brexit. Which has won some support, though lost a lot more in marginals.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Liep on September 21, 2017, 06:34:05 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 21, 2017, 03:19:20 AM
I'm going full Tim today. The atmosphere is really heated and I can't see this ending without - at least - street violence.

I agree, Spain needs to cool the fuck down. Seeking refuge from the blistering sun in a restaurant somewhere south of Córdoba right now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 21, 2017, 06:37:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 21, 2017, 03:03:35 AM
Dude needs to work on his Spanish.  That's not even close.

:D
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Gups on September 21, 2017, 08:38:32 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 21, 2017, 04:47:52 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 21, 2017, 03:47:47 AM
It is very worrying. I think the separatists have played their cards well (leaving morality aside of course).

Do you think their Scottish counterparts are taking notes?

It's a bit harder for them when they've already had a referendum and nobody (not even the SNP) wants another one.

Spanish Govt really seems to be doing its level best to encourage the separatists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 21, 2017, 08:40:09 AM
I thought Madrid was on the right track before they arrested the separatist politicians. I mean you might as well be secretly a separatist if you are going to do something with such a proven track record of failure. The British government would be rocking along with basic support in Ireland and then blow everything to shit by doing something heavy handed like this in the past and we saw how wonderfully that turned out.

It still might work out but they needed to let cooler heads prevail here.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on September 21, 2017, 09:27:01 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 21, 2017, 08:40:09 AM
I thought Madrid was on the right track before they arrested the separatist politicians. I mean you might as well be secretly a separatist if you are going to do something with such a proven track record of failure. The British government would be rocking along with basic support in Ireland and then blow everything to shit by doing something heavy handed like this in the past and we saw how wonderfully that turned out.

It still might work out but they needed to let cooler heads prevail here.

Yeah, I just don't get it. They really expect this to go away by locking up the leaders? Is that how they wish to solve the issue? The only more surreal than an independence movement in today's western Europe is a police crackdown on it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 21, 2017, 09:33:51 AM
The leaders weren't locked up, they just arrested the underlings that were most directly involved in organizing the referendum. The highest ranking person arrested is the equivalent of an undersecretary or deputy minister (of the regional government).

It was ordered by the court, although the judge who did it has a reputation of being prison-happy.
I think it was a fatally dumb move. You can't apply justice selectively, but surely this could have been more quietly dealt with after the referendum date. Madrid had been focused on seizing materials/blocking expenditure until now, trying to make the logistics of the referendum unfeasible.

Tempers are running really hot now. The 10 next days are going to be very, very long.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 21, 2017, 09:35:27 AM
Ah well it is not as bad as I originally thought.

Still stupid though.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on September 21, 2017, 10:01:58 AM
I agree - the surest way to guarantee Catalan independence is to tell Catalans they don't even get to decide whether or not to be independent.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 21, 2017, 01:02:14 PM
The thing is, they don't.

Unless they a) convince the rest of us to change the Constitution and split amicably. Or b) start a war and win it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 21, 2017, 01:08:01 PM
A small moment of levity.

The Spanish government has sent 5,000 additional policemen to Catalonia in advance of the referendum. Thing is, there aren't enough quarters available to host such a surge. So they went and chartered 3 passenger ships, which are now moored in Barcelona harbor.

This, is one of them:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mobylines.com%2Fexport%2Fsites%2Fmoby_en%2Fimg%2Fnavi%2FDada_570x260.jpg&hash=2f2c8678367a9a63468440a98aacf564c7c4a1ca)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 21, 2017, 01:22:24 PM
 :lol:

By the way, it seems like it was not the Government that triggered the raid yesterday. The judge that ordered the arrests is investigating a complaint filed by Vox, our tiny reactionary right party. That would better explain this turn of events, as Rajoy is more of a wait-and-see kind of politician.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 21, 2017, 01:59:40 PM
BTW Celery, very clever thread title.  Witty even.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: DGuller on September 21, 2017, 09:35:51 PM
Has anyone actually tried throwing shit in the fan?  It doesn't do what you think it will do.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 21, 2017, 09:53:55 PM
I'd imagine it depends on the consistency of the shit and the strength of the fan.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: DGuller on September 21, 2017, 10:08:03 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on September 21, 2017, 09:53:55 PM
I'd imagine it depends on the consistency of the shit and the strength of the fan.
Doesn't matter.  Your best shot is taking the front guard off, but even that doesn't really help.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Ed Anger on September 22, 2017, 07:30:11 PM
Suchet may need to cross the border and restore order.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 23, 2017, 05:24:15 AM
The Spanish Ministry of Interior has taken control of the regional police, after the regional police has been accused of being "passive" in their role of stopping the referendum. Litmus test here - if the regional police doesn't follow Madrid's orders, my thread title will come to reality.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 23, 2017, 05:30:11 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 22, 2017, 07:30:11 PM
Suchet may need to cross the border and restore order.

It doesn't take Poirot to figure this one out.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 23, 2017, 11:36:58 AM
Quote from: The Brain on September 23, 2017, 05:30:11 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 22, 2017, 07:30:11 PM
Suchet may need to cross the border and restore order.

It doesn't take Poirot to figure this one out.

He can free the Catalan officials from the little grey cells they have been put in.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on September 24, 2017, 07:57:52 AM
So, any developments?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 24, 2017, 08:36:51 AM
Nothing major. Just campaigning by the separatists. It's a holiday weekend in most parts of Catalonia, so the fun will resume in Tuesday as we enter the home stretch before the referendum (slated for next Sunday).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 24, 2017, 08:45:40 AM
Also, President Rajoy is meeting with Trump this week in the White House. I'm actually looking forward the chance of Trump inserting himself in the debate  :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 24, 2017, 09:13:20 AM
What chance do you see of a strike Celed?

That would be, I think, a pretty good gauge of separatist sentiment. Banging on cookware costs nothing. Renouncing to your salary, on the other hand ...





Also, it would help me if Martorell closed down for a couple of weeks.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 24, 2017, 09:36:44 AM
I can't see it happening. There were calls for a general strike after the arrests last week, but UGT and CCOO (largest unions over here) rejected it.

Also there's not too much time to organize a strike, since there's just 4 working days until the vote.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 27, 2017, 05:14:18 AM
So, the anarchist trade union has indeed called for a strike on October 3rd. We're officially back to the 1930s!

They're really small though. I can't see it succeeding unless the larger unions end up joining. And even those don't have the pull they once had.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 27, 2017, 07:45:02 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 27, 2017, 05:14:18 AM
So, the anarchist trade union has indeed called for a strike on October 3rd. We're officially back to the 1930s!

Does the anarchist trade union have union rules? :unsure:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on September 27, 2017, 07:46:57 AM
Quote from: Valmy on September 27, 2017, 07:45:02 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 27, 2017, 05:14:18 AM
So, the anarchist trade union has indeed called for a strike on October 3rd. We're officially back to the 1930s!

Does the anarchist trade union have union rules? :unsure:

They must have law and order!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 27, 2017, 10:02:41 AM
I knew I could count on the CNT guys!
:)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 27, 2017, 06:59:50 PM
You can always count on Barcelona's anarchists showing up for the fun since 1909.

Anyhow, latest news is that the Supreme Court of Catalonia has ordered all the police forces to shut down all polling stations this Sunday and confiscate all electoral materials. Separatist organizations are already announcing occupations to "protect" the stations. It's gonna be a blast.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on September 27, 2017, 07:03:25 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 27, 2017, 06:59:50 PM
You can always count on Barcelona's anarchists showing up for the fun since 1909.

Anyhow, latest news is that the Supreme Court of Catalonia has ordered all the police forces to shut down all polling stations this Sunday and confiscate all electoral materials. Separatist organizations are already announcing occupations to "protect" the stations. It's gonna be a blast.

So...what do you do in Spain instead of pop popcorn? Mix up some Sangria? Make some Paella?

Sounds like a good day to stay home.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 28, 2017, 12:51:25 PM
I'm almost sad that I won't be there this Sunday. :P

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/LastingQuestionableCamel-size_restricted.gif)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on September 28, 2017, 02:41:33 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 27, 2017, 06:59:50 PM
You can always count on Barcelona's anarchists showing up for the fun since 1909.

Anyhow, latest news is that the Supreme Court of Catalonia has ordered all the police forces to shut down all polling stations this Sunday and confiscate all electoral materials. Separatist organizations are already announcing occupations to "protect" the stations. It's gonna be a blast.
the government should simply have allowed the referendum.  Do it the British way, for once, they got something really right. ;)
Define the mandates, the conditions, the audit of the process by neutral observers, allow campaigning by Spain to preserve the Union, allow campaigning by the Seperatists to make their case, respect the electoral rules, don't cheat, let it play.  If Russians are behind this, expose them publicly before it even starts, and everytime there is such an act.  Fight the fake news, answer with facts, don't do scaremongering, that tends to push people the other way.  If corruption is involved from the administration, then these are the laws must strive to apply, not some sillyness about forbidding the expression of democracy.

Maybe the seperatists would have gotten 40% of the vote.  Maybe 48%.  By what you tells us, it seems unlikely it would have won.

Maybe this entire situation could even have been avoided by public&transparent negotiations on decentralization of the Federal States toward the regions before there is even a referendum.

Stephen Harper fought against the seperatists the good way: he ignored them, he didn't respond to any attemps by Marois to provoke anger on the Feds side.  And it worked.  18 months later, the dumb bitch harakiried herself and the seperatist movement is at an all time low, not even sure to make it to 2nd place in next year elections.

Now, I fear Spain has just given credence to the seperatist cause and this story is far from over. It may sleep for a while, but it will come back.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on September 28, 2017, 03:33:12 PM
They are not allowed to do that even if they wanted to.

The Constitution is very clear. And to change it you need a 2/3s majority; dissolving Parliament; calling elections; getting another 2/3s majority and a referendum in the whole country.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on September 28, 2017, 04:12:14 PM
Quote from: viper37 on September 28, 2017, 02:41:33 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 27, 2017, 06:59:50 PM
You can always count on Barcelona's anarchists showing up for the fun since 1909.

Anyhow, latest news is that the Supreme Court of Catalonia has ordered all the police forces to shut down all polling stations this Sunday and confiscate all electoral materials. Separatist organizations are already announcing occupations to "protect" the stations. It's gonna be a blast.
the government should simply have allowed the referendum.  Do it the British way, for once, they got something really right. ;)
Define the mandates, the conditions, the audit of the process by neutral observers, allow campaigning by Spain to preserve the Union, allow campaigning by the Seperatists to make their case, respect the electoral rules, don't cheat, let it play.  If Russians are behind this, expose them publicly before it even starts, and everytime there is such an act.  Fight the fake news, answer with facts, don't do scaremongering, that tends to push people the other way.  If corruption is involved from the administration, then these are the laws must strive to apply, not some sillyness about forbidding the expression of democracy.

Maybe the seperatists would have gotten 40% of the vote.  Maybe 48%.  By what you tells us, it seems unlikely it would have won.

Maybe this entire situation could even have been avoided by public&transparent negotiations on decentralization of the Federal States toward the regions before there is even a referendum.

Stephen Harper fought against the seperatists the good way: he ignored them, he didn't respond to any attemps by Marois to provoke anger on the Feds side.  And it worked.  18 months later, the dumb bitch harakiried herself and the seperatist movement is at an all time low, not even sure to make it to 2nd place in next year elections.

Now, I fear Spain has just given credence to the seperatist cause and this story is far from over. It may sleep for a while, but it will come back.

This ain't Canada, Viper. Allowing the referendum to happen would have been unconstitutional AND a grossly dangerous slippery slope. What's stopping the Basque Country to ask for their own referendum next?

This sort of referendum for secession is forbidden by the Spanish Constitution. Kingdom of Spain is one and indivisible and there are no lawful processes to break it down.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on September 28, 2017, 05:01:00 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on September 28, 2017, 03:33:12 PM
They are not allowed to do that even if they wanted to.

The Constitution is very clear. And to change it you need a 2/3s majority; dissolving Parliament; calling elections; getting another 2/3s majority and a referendum in the whole country.

So you have it as a consultative referendum.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 28, 2017, 05:57:15 PM
That seems a bit weird though. If independence wins we'd have to go through the same process of Constitutional reform, since independence would still be illegal. And what if the reform is then rejected?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on September 28, 2017, 06:48:27 PM
Canadians sure seem crap on constitutionality.  The best way for the Spanish government to avoid an unconstitutional regional vote on succession cannot be to conduct an unconstitutional regional vote on succession of its own, even using the fig leaf that it is just "consultative."  It would be a disaster if succession lost the vote, and catastrophe if it won.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on September 28, 2017, 09:40:07 PM
Quote from: Drakken on September 28, 2017, 04:12:14 PM
Quote from: viper37 on September 28, 2017, 02:41:33 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 27, 2017, 06:59:50 PM
You can always count on Barcelona's anarchists showing up for the fun since 1909.

Anyhow, latest news is that the Supreme Court of Catalonia has ordered all the police forces to shut down all polling stations this Sunday and confiscate all electoral materials. Separatist organizations are already announcing occupations to "protect" the stations. It's gonna be a blast.
the government should simply have allowed the referendum.  Do it the British way, for once, they got something really right. ;)
Define the mandates, the conditions, the audit of the process by neutral observers, allow campaigning by Spain to preserve the Union, allow campaigning by the Seperatists to make their case, respect the electoral rules, don't cheat, let it play.  If Russians are behind this, expose them publicly before it even starts, and everytime there is such an act.  Fight the fake news, answer with facts, don't do scaremongering, that tends to push people the other way.  If corruption is involved from the administration, then these are the laws must strive to apply, not some sillyness about forbidding the expression of democracy.

Maybe the seperatists would have gotten 40% of the vote.  Maybe 48%.  By what you tells us, it seems unlikely it would have won.

Maybe this entire situation could even have been avoided by public&transparent negotiations on decentralization of the Federal States toward the regions before there is even a referendum.

Stephen Harper fought against the seperatists the good way: he ignored them, he didn't respond to any attemps by Marois to provoke anger on the Feds side.  And it worked.  18 months later, the dumb bitch harakiried herself and the seperatist movement is at an all time low, not even sure to make it to 2nd place in next year elections.

Now, I fear Spain has just given credence to the seperatist cause and this story is far from over. It may sleep for a while, but it will come back.

This ain't Canada, Viper. Allowing the referendum to happen would have been unconstitutional AND a grossly dangerous slippery slope. What's stopping the Basque Country to ask for their own referendum next?

This sort of referendum for secession is forbidden by the Spanish Constitution. Kingdom of Spain is one and indivisible and there are no lawful processes to break it down.
If all that's keeping these people in line is the threat of force, the power of the army, than there is something really fucked up in Spain.

When a nation overwhelmingly feels it wants to leave, it's because there's something wrong.  Find it, fix it, end of problem.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Gups on September 29, 2017, 03:16:48 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 28, 2017, 05:57:15 PM
That seems a bit weird though. If independence wins we'd have to go through the same process of Constitutional reform, since independence would still be illegal. And what if the reform is then rejected?

To be clear - is the referendum banned by the constitution? Because it appears that the Spanish Govt is at the moment seeking to prevent the referendum rather than the separation.

If independence wins, it might (depending on the margin) inform the reform process.

If it loses then at least you have dealt with the issue for a decade or two.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 29, 2017, 03:39:43 AM
Quote from: Gups on September 29, 2017, 03:16:48 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 28, 2017, 05:57:15 PM
That seems a bit weird though. If independence wins we'd have to go through the same process of Constitutional reform, since independence would still be illegal. And what if the reform is then rejected?

To be clear - is the referendum banned by the constitution? Because it appears that the Spanish Govt is at the moment seeking to prevent the referendum rather than the separation.

If independence wins, it might (depending on the margin) inform the reform process.

If it loses then at least you have dealt with the issue for a decade or two.

The referendum is binding. It's not a Puerto Rico "we'll vote and then ask the US Congress to implement the result" deal. It's seeking a mandate to act against the Constitution. Hence, it's intrinsically unconstitutional.

A consultative referendum seems pointless. The separatists would never accept it anyway, the whole point of their argument is Catalonia's alleged right of self-determination, which doesn't apply if then you have to ask the rest of Spain to agree to implement the result (and it would be rejected by Spanish voters).

Honestly though, I just don't see a way for reconciliation and stability right now. It's either independence or a low-key version of The Troubles. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but I see the nationalist frenzy in a large swathe of my compatriots and this isn't going away tomorrow. We're deeply divided and this won't heal anytime soon.

And if Catalonia goes, the domino effect will make Spain crumble, make no mistake about it. The most prosperous and peaceful period of freedom in Spanish history, gone. We're fucking cursed.

Yes, I've gone full Tim.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 29, 2017, 03:53:37 AM
Maybe it's best to let the Moors take it again.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 29, 2017, 04:16:41 AM
Because North Africa is a model of peace and stability.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on September 29, 2017, 04:19:14 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on September 29, 2017, 04:16:41 AM
Because North Africa is a model of peace and stability.

That's because of colonialism, which wouldn't apply to Spain.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 29, 2017, 04:51:22 AM
Quote from: The Brain on September 29, 2017, 04:19:14 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on September 29, 2017, 04:16:41 AM
Because North Africa is a model of peace and stability.

That's because of colonialism, which wouldn't apply to Spain.

:lol:

Franco must be spinning in his grave. Though his Moorish troops did bring some kind of "stability".  :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on September 30, 2017, 03:53:04 PM
Tomorrow's the day. A little sitrep:

1) The Catalan Supreme Court has decreed the closure of all polling stations. As a response, separatists have begun occupying them to keep them open throughout the night and passively resist closure/eviction efforts from the police tomorrow. According to one of their orgs, 25% of polling stations are occupied atm.

2) The regional police has orders from the court to show up tomorrow morning and attempt to close the stations and seize electoral materials. Right now, it's a bit of a question mark how "forceful" their attempts at doing that will be.

3) Today the Spanish police raided the regional government's IT offices, in and attempt to shut down telematic tools for counting votes, etc...

4) The Spanish nationalists showed up for the party today ( <_<) with a sizable demo in downtown Barcelona that ended up with a bit of bother.

Tomorrow's going to be a long day.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 02:06:19 AM
Aaaaaaand the fun is on!  <_<

(https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/914383059390275585/pu/img/vei_9KDFR3tKcO0M.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Liep on October 01, 2017, 03:23:25 AM
https://twitter.com/pablo_iglesias_/status/914401890682761216

Seems a little more brutal than what is needed.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 03:44:45 AM
I went down to make sure my parents don't get in any shit, which they are prone to since getting into trouble with the cops makes them feel young.

I am having trouble processing all of this, myself.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:45:20 AM
I don't get the strategy Rajoy is following here at all. Let the voting take place. Send in plain clothes officers to gather evidence (eg. illicit use of census), then quietly start the arrests a couple weeks from now.

It's not like the results are going to matter anyway.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 03:46:27 AM
It's idiotic.

My parents tell me the voting system is down too, and it seems it's been hacked. Sending in the riot police to make a show of force is pointless.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 01, 2017, 04:07:08 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:45:20 AM
I don't get the strategy Rajoy is following here at all. Let the voting take place. Send in plain clothes officers to gather evidence (eg. illicit use of census), then quietly start the arrests a couple weeks from now.

It's not like the results are going to matter anyway.

Yeah it seems like the Spanish government is doing all they can to escalate the situation.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 04:24:28 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:45:20 AM
I don't get the strategy Rajoy is following here at all. Let the voting take place. Send in plain clothes officers to gather evidence (eg. illicit use of census), then quietly start the arrests a couple weeks from now.

Or instead Spain could accept that it has a problem and that the 2010 court decision to gut the Catalan autonomous statute wasn't the smartest idea? Same for refusing to any negotiations despite 30+ (so I read) requests from the Catalans to have talks?
If the Catalans can get 100.000s, and on more than one occasion a million+, people on the streets and that year after year to demand independence than it's Spain that has a problem. Not the Catalans.

especially if this is correct (seems to me that the US threw of British yoke for less, at least in popular mythology)
Quote
http://de-bron.org/content/rajoy-zaait-verdeeldheid-en-onrust
Welke autonomie was afgesproken voor Catalonië?

De Spaanse grondwet van 1978 erkende Catalonië als een aparte natie (naast Baskenland en Galicië). Het autonomiestatuut werd goedgekeurd in 2006 door zowel het Spaanse als het Catalaanse parlement en door een 74% van de Catalaanse stemmen bij een referendum. Dat bevestigt dat Catalonië een autonoom bestuur heeft, uitgezonderd voor defensie, grenzen en terrorisme. Die ruime autonomie werd echter betwist, vooral door de Partido Popular (PP) van Rajoy.

Het Spaanse oppergerechtshof oordeelde dan in 2010 dat 14 artikels van het autonomiestatuut ongrondwettelijk waren; het legde ook beperkingen op aan 27 andere. Het vernietigde onder meer de formele waarborg op het recht op zelfbestuur, de fiscale autonomie en de afgesproken beperkingen op financiële transfers. Het stelde voorts dat de erkenning als natie geen enkel legaal belang had.

my translation:
What autonomy did Catalonia get?

The Spanish Constitution of  1978 recognized Catalonia as a separate nation (alongside the Basques and Galicia). This autonomous statute was approved in 2006 by both Spanish and Catalan parliaments and with a 74% majority of Catalan votes, through a referendum. This agreement confirms that Catalonia has a separate administration (government?) except for defense, borders and counter-terrorism. This far-reaching autonomy was contested however, mainly by Rajoy's Partido Popular.

The Spanish highest court judged in 2010 that 14 articles of this statute were unconstitutional; it also put restrictions on 27 other articles. It destroyed, among others, the formal guarantee to the right of self-government, fiscal autonomy and the agree on limits to fiscal transfers. It also states that the recognition as a nation was of no legal consequence whatsoever.


you're right that this round solves nothing though. The issue will come back and back and back until Spain agrees to sit down with the Catalans and negotiate a new deal or until Catalonia gains its freedom.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 05:12:47 AM
Limits to fiscal transfers are completely idiotic. Transfers are a function of demographics.

The overwhelming majority of job openings for qualified young people require you to move to Barcelona or Madrid. Rural areas were already depopulated, now small towns are suffering the same process.
It is hard enough as it is to afford a flat in Barcelona. It would be impossible if every other Spanish pensioner had to move there because Extremadura, Castille or Galicia had no more money for pensions or health services.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 01, 2017, 05:42:06 AM
Le Figaro.fr reports Catalan independentists are holding carnations in demonstrations in a parallel to the Carnation Revolution.

I really don't think Rajoy is some kind of Marcelo Caetano...

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.f1g.fr%2Fmedia%2F_uploaded%2F804x%2Ffigaro-live%2Flefigaro.fr%2F20171001LIVWWW00007%2F2017-10-01t094938z_16834969_rc1eb8dd8960_rtrmadp_3_spain-politics-catalonia.jpg&hash=48dddeda75c393591dbca645bedd3c36145cbfb7)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.f1g.fr%2Fmedia%2F_uploaded%2F804x%2Ffigaro-live%2Flefigaro.fr%2F20171001LIVWWW00007%2F688995-01-02.jpg&hash=b87e14b23f6327f21dfc89e9117135437e0dc62c)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.f1g.fr%2Fmedia%2F_uploaded%2F804x%2Ffigaro-live%2Flefigaro.fr%2F20171001LIVWWW00007%2F2017-10-01t103507z_1852938509_rc192b492400_rtrmadp_3_spain-politics-catalonia.jpg&hash=aa2ba1927a4001fb34f46d7b5c90e767284149b7)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 01, 2017, 06:29:40 AM
Quote from: Barrister on September 28, 2017, 05:01:00 PM

So you have it as a consultative referendum.

Lets have a referendum to bring back the Confederacy and make black people slaves again.

Don't worry it's just consultative.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 01, 2017, 06:41:23 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 01, 2017, 06:29:40 AM
Quote from: Barrister on September 28, 2017, 05:01:00 PM

So you have it as a consultative referendum.

Lets have a referendum to bring back the Confederacy and make black people slaves again.

Don't worry it's just consultative.

I don't think Marti analogies are helpful.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 06:52:32 AM
FC Barcelona has apparently asked for today's match to be postponed.

It would be for the best, I think, unless you want to inflame the situation further.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 07:26:38 AM
Hey Celed, what's going on with the Mossos today?

Are they active at all? One has to wonder if all this shit is a way to justify their dissolution.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 07:33:17 AM
They have shut down several polling stations in low-intensity areas (nearly 200, according to themselves), but done nothing when faced with nominal resistance from people inside. I think they wanted to nominally follow court orders without entering into full on street combat. I guess we'll know in the following days whether they actually disobeyed orders or not. I went past two of them watching a polling station earlier, and they looked really anxious.

I think we are on the road of becoming the new Ulster - with less violence. I just can't see any path to compromise right now. Yahoo!

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 08:09:20 AM
Did you vote anyway?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 08:23:10 AM
Jesus. Police is using force, with soft bullets against demonstrators. 337 people have been wounded, 3 grievously.

Who told me I was being paranoid again?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 01, 2017, 08:55:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 07:33:17 AM
They have shut down several polling stations in low-intensity areas (nearly 200, according to themselves), but done nothing when faced with nominal resistance from people inside. I think they wanted to nominally follow court orders without entering into full on street combat. I guess we'll know in the following days whether they actually disobeyed orders or not. I went past two of them watching a polling station earlier, and they looked really anxious.

I think we are on the road of becoming the new Ulster - with less violence. I just can't see any path to compromise right now. Yahoo!

Stay calm and out of trouble. This sounds terrible and for an outsider like me utterly confusing. I didn't understand why the local government was going ahead with this, but the central government's apparent eagerness to escalate seems much more unjustified.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 08:56:44 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 08:23:10 AM
Jesus. Police is using force, with soft bullets against demonstrators. 337 people have been wounded, 3 grievously.

Who told me I was being paranoid again?

It's not that bad, all things considered. There's probably a couple million people on the streets today.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 01, 2017, 08:57:59 AM
Also what was the Spanish football association thinking not allowing the cancellation of today's Barcelona match? Is it some kind of Spanish custom to have a civil war every generation?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 08:59:31 AM
Regional police have stated everything is fine, regarding security for the match.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: katmai on October 01, 2017, 09:00:46 AM
Cr Ah the Catalans! Only the Basque deserve autonomy!

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 09:02:02 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 08:59:31 AM
Regional police have stated everything is fine, regarding security for the match.

Which is baffling, since supporter groups threatened to invade the pitch and prevent the game from taking place.

At least we're playing closed doors. I hope there isn't violence outside the pitch.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 01, 2017, 09:09:40 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 01, 2017, 08:55:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 07:33:17 AM
They have shut down several polling stations in low-intensity areas (nearly 200, according to themselves), but done nothing when faced with nominal resistance from people inside. I think they wanted to nominally follow court orders without entering into full on street combat. I guess we'll know in the following days whether they actually disobeyed orders or not. I went past two of them watching a polling station earlier, and they looked really anxious.

I think we are on the road of becoming the new Ulster - with less violence. I just can't see any path to compromise right now. Yahoo!

Stay calm and out of trouble. This sounds terrible and for an outsider like me utterly confusing. I didn't understand why the local government was going ahead with this, but the central government's apparent eagerness to escalate seems much more unjustified.

Yeah, I mean I'm generally against independent movements but if this is how the central government reacts to a vote it doesn't want...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 09:55:29 AM
Quote from: garbon on October 01, 2017, 09:09:40 AM
Yeah, I mean I'm generally against independent movements but if this is how the central government reacts to a vote it doesn't want...

With patriots like those in the ruling party, I'm not sure Spain needs more enemies.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 10:05:26 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 05:12:47 AM
Limits to fiscal transfers are completely idiotic. Transfers are a function of demographics.


not limiting transfers is idiotic, else you'll have regions that don't get their finances in order for decades on end. And would be stupid to get them in order as it'll reduce the money they get. Cases in point: Brussels, Wallonia.

A nation has right to decide how the fruits of it's labours are spent. All the fruits.

regardless: nice images coming out of Spain. Reminds me of Venezuela, or maybe Turkey. Or some other state with issues.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 01, 2017, 10:07:38 AM
This "the referendum is unconstitutional and illegal" stuff is a true nonsense.
How can this be legally illegal (...yeah, I know)?
Isn't self determination covered under international law?

I've no view on whether Catalunya should be independent or not but we aren't talking some borderline case of a sub division of a sub division of a sub division wanting a referendum here, we are talking an actual separate nation. They deserve a referendum.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 01, 2017, 10:21:52 AM
I'm not aware of any requirement to accomodate treason.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 01, 2017, 10:44:02 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 10:05:26 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 05:12:47 AM
Limits to fiscal transfers are completely idiotic. Transfers are a function of demographics.


not limiting transfers is idiotic, else you'll have regions that don't get their finances in order for decades on end. And would be stupid to get them in order as it'll reduce the money they get. Cases in point: Brussels, Wallonia.

A nation has right to decide how the fruits of it's labours are spent. All the fruits.

Isn't that what happens in a federal state? Say like on this chart of how much each US state gets from federal gov't per each $1 it sends to the gov't.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/which-states-are-givers-and-which-are-takers/361668/
(https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2014/05/Slide3/966724856.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 01, 2017, 10:58:33 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 01, 2017, 10:07:38 AM
This "the referendum is unconstitutional and illegal" stuff is a true nonsense.
How can this be legally illegal (...yeah, I know)?
Isn't self determination covered under international law?

I've no view on whether Catalunya should be independent or not but we aren't talking some borderline case of a sub division of a sub division of a sub division wanting a referendum here, we are talking an actual separate nation. They deserve a referendum.

If they were actually separate, what would be the point?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 11:00:54 AM
Quote from: garbon on October 01, 2017, 10:44:02 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 10:05:26 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 05:12:47 AM
Limits to fiscal transfers are completely idiotic. Transfers are a function of demographics.


not limiting transfers is idiotic, else you'll have regions that don't get their finances in order for decades on end. And would be stupid to get them in order as it'll reduce the money they get. Cases in point: Brussels, Wallonia.

A nation has right to decide how the fruits of it's labours are spent. All the fruits.

Isn't that what happens in a federal state? Say like on this chart of how much each US state gets from federal gov't per each $1 it sends to the gov't.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/which-states-are-givers-and-which-are-takers/361668/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/which-states-are-givers-and-which-are-takers/361668/)
(https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2014/05/Slide3/966724856.jpg)
Like he said, you encourage States to not clean their act.  They have no reason to make any kind of structural reform to adress the imbalance.

But a graphic for one year is not really meaningful.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 11:04:27 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 01, 2017, 10:58:33 AM
If they were actually separate, what would be the point?
a nation does not automatically come with borders.  Kurds are a nation, really distinct from their neighbours.  Yet, there is no such thing as a Kurdistan in the UN.  Rohingyas are a nation too, despite having no country of their own.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 01, 2017, 11:11:00 AM
Quote from: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 11:00:54 AM
Like he said, you encourage States to not clean their act.  They have no reason to make any kind of structural reform to adress the imbalance.

Which again is part and parcel of being part of a federal system. There are always more profitable, desirable areas that have to 'prop up' financially other parts of the state.  That can't really be the basis of an independence movement as you see the same dynamic if you move to a municipal level.g

Quote from: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 11:00:54 AM
But a graphic for one year is not really meaningful.

If you click through the links, they run that analysis yearly with similar results.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 12:32:54 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 01, 2017, 11:11:00 AM
Which again is part and parcel of being part of a federal system. There are always more profitable, desirable areas that have to 'prop up' financially other parts of the state. 
over a short term period, some part of a State or a city could be poorer.  Rapid technological change can do that, or legalising/forbidding something.  Classic example was abolishing slavery in your country, it made the South poorer for a time, especially combined with the destruction done by the Northern troops.  New York could have been poorer for a time after 9/11, and New Jersey would have been poorer for a time after their last hurricane, but it's not something that should be permanent.

If a State decides to lower its effective tax rates and rely on Federal money instead to compensate, it is a problem.
If a State/territory suffers from an hurricane that's another.
If people stop buying car, Michigan is poorer for a while, but in no way should this be a permanent solution.  The State should try to find ways to diversify it's economy.  If car global car sales in the US are declining for a decade and the State still insists on producing cars for 90% of its GDP, with constant federal life support, there is no incentive to move away from car production.

When people keep being dependant on the Federal State, it can create resentment on both sides of the divide.  People and States receving the money expect it, it is their due.  People paying accept for a time but would want the receivers to be grateful.  Kinda like how Trump acts with Porto Rico.

QuoteThat can't really be the basis of an independence movement as you see the same dynamic if you move to a municipal level.g

I doubt it's ever the basis of anything.  Otherwise, West-Montrealers would want to fence and split themselves from East Montreal... oh wait, bad example.  ;)

First comes the nation.  People feel different.  Different language, different culture, different approach to living, different political tendancies, among many factors.  Then comes the political cry.  Simply stating you are different isn't nearly enough, as some people just don't see it that way.  Genereally speaking, if you tell people others are living off of their back and they would be much better off by splitting from the "parasites", they tend to listen. Maybe not agree, but listen to your case.  Tell them your solution will result in widespread poverty and a decreast in their standard of living and they turn away from you...  People generally accept change when they believe it's for the better.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 01, 2017, 12:35:46 PM
By the by, the South wasn't poorer for a time. If you look at that chart, much of the South is still getting the better deal / other charts will show a high concentration of poverty in the South.  So pretty much the norm for quite some time.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 12:43:33 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 01, 2017, 12:35:46 PM
By the by, the South wasn't poorer for a time. If you look at that chart, much of the South is still getting the better deal / other charts will show a high concentration of poverty in the South.  So pretty much the norm for quite some time.
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-federal-government/2700/#dependency-and-state-taxes
High dependancy and Low GDP seems concentrated on the Red States.
I agree the term "poor" is ill chosen, because I had production output (GDP) in mind.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 12:48:01 PM
Please explain to me how the provinces of the interior can "address" age and population density imbalances in such a way that transfers are not necessary.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.teinteresa.es%2Fespana%2FEdad-media-poblacion-espanola-provincias_TINIMA20130422_0458_19.jpg&hash=3a53da793a94949a316e61a31ff7c2a7a1acd4da)
(https://www.ecestaticos.com/file/0f77e20598f53edaf80070559f722d47/1483351765-densidadpob.png)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Razgovory on October 01, 2017, 12:54:42 PM
My mom was talking about this the other day, but she kept saying Caledonia.  I had no idea what she was talking about.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 01, 2017, 12:59:55 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 01, 2017, 12:54:42 PM
My mom was talking about this the other day, but she kept saying Caledonia.  I had no idea what she was talking about.

They voted to stay. :scots:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 01, 2017, 01:02:34 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 01, 2017, 12:54:42 PM
My mom was talking about this the other day, but she kept saying Caledonia.  I had no idea what she was talking about.

Nobody's mentioning Bisque independence. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 01:03:17 PM
And the award to the weirdest event of the day goes to ...

Gypsies coming to the aid of police forces and chasing separatists off (https://twitter.com/fray_fanatic/status/914507683771949056)  :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: DGuller on October 01, 2017, 01:41:28 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 12:48:01 PM
Please explain to me how the provinces of the interior can "address" age and population density imbalances in such a way that transfers are not necessary.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.teinteresa.es%2Fespana%2FEdad-media-poblacion-espanola-provincias_TINIMA20130422_0458_19.jpg&hash=3a53da793a94949a316e61a31ff7c2a7a1acd4da)
(https://www.ecestaticos.com/file/0f77e20598f53edaf80070559f722d47/1483351765-densidadpob.png)
:hmm: Looks like anyone who's young enough to be mobile wants to move as far away from Portugese as possible.  Makes sense.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 01:43:27 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 12:48:01 PM
Please explain to me how the provinces of the interior can "address" age and population density imbalances in such a way that transfers are not necessary.
age and population density, no.
but we're talking GDP output here.

I don't know about Spain.  But if I look at Quebec?
- Exploiting natural resources instead of leaving it in the ground.  We have gaz&oil, we refuse to take it out.
- Reducing bureaucracy, the burden of regulations affecting our productivity.
- Having a decent healthcare system that works.  I know people point at the doctor's wages right now, but it was the same before the last round of increase, it still wasn't working.
- Having a decent education system that removes religion from school and place science&facts where it should be.  Confessional schools should still be mandated by State to offer the same education as the public school, religious classes must come on top of that, not instead of a math class.
- Lowering taxes for the middle class to stimulate investments&consumption
- Lowering taxes for property transfer inside the State compared to selling to foreigners as to create an incentive to keep property local
- Force union transparency so members can see what their Union does with the money they collect.
- Do not hesitate to investigate and arrest union members when a crime is suspected, the same way mafia groups are infiltrated and dismantled
- fight corruption, don't accept it anywhere
- elevate requirements to get professional diplomas and make sure the appropriate resource are there for the students with learning troubles
- encourage excellency at school by creating classes of advanced students where they learn faster than the others.
- promote urban density rather than expansion into agricultural lands
- use Federal and State government money to fund important infrastructure projects in cities and rural areas but do not provide funding for management of such project (like urban transports, cities should find a way to finance the operating costs, but I don't mind if we all pay for the buses/metro/trains themselves)
- promote free market and competition whenever possible instead of rules&regulations designed to create barriers on entry.  Government regulation may be needed to keep a market fair, but they shouldn't be designed to needlessly increase costs of operations
- diversify the economy, do not rely on a single type of industry for designated area.  My home town relied on Bombardier for years to insure its growth.  It took us too decade to accept things would never be the same. Now, it's moving, but they still have a tendancy to look at the past by solely promoting one type of industry with one type of manual workers instead of seeking to attract service businesses too.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 01:49:18 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 01, 2017, 01:41:28 PM
:hmm: Looks like anyone who's young enough to be mobile wants to move as far away from Portugese as possible.  Makes sense.

it's the beachrubbings...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Liep on October 01, 2017, 01:51:17 PM
No vote was held today says Rajoy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

His actions make no sense.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 02:01:22 PM
He's fucked. He failed both the die-hards that wanted the vote not to take place whatever the cost, and the moderates preferred to let the thing happen, call it for the bogus vote it is, and then try a political approach.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 02:07:24 PM
Yep. That's a pretty accurate assessment.

His problem is that he usually lets things simmer down, but this time he lost control of the situation once a district judge ordered the Civil Guard to arrest the plotters and raid the Generalitat's offices - which ended in a clusterfuck in downtown Barcelona. From that point on he was completely outplayed.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 02:16:38 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 02:07:24 PM
Yep. That's a pretty accurate assessment.

His problem is that he usually lets things simmer down, but this time he lost control of the situation once a district judge ordered the Civil Guard to arrest the plotters and raid the Generalitat's offices - which ended in a clusterfuck in downtown Barcelona. From that point on he was completely outplayed.

I think he was under big pressure from the more right wing circles in the party and media to bring down the fury of god on the separatists after he let the 2014 vote happen - vote which was then happily ignored by everyone.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 02:20:08 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 02:01:22 PM
He's fucked. He failed both the die-hards that wanted the vote not to take place whatever the cost, and the moderates preferred to let the thing happen, call it for the bogus vote it is, and then try a political approach.

Indeed. The political approach seems now dead in the water. It would have worked while using force was still an last-resort option, but now that the latter's been used and we have almost 800 wounded?

We might coat in whatever language you want, in the end the Catalonian governement is now in effect in a state of secession, unless the numbers are dumbfoundingly against separating. And yet, the Catalonian separatists now have the advantage - they are widely portrayed now as victims on the world stage.

His only options remaining now seems either to back down and look weak, and throw Spain even further into constitutional crisis (because that referendum, whatever we say, does remains unconstitutional), or go all-in and make a call for the unity of Spain against the Catalonian government's "open revolt" to keep the die-hards' backing. Doing a Cameron, i.e. go to the King and resign would just throw the government further into chaos.

Rajoy tried to play the brinksmanship's game, but he failed abysmally. No one can back down here now without admitting utter defeat.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 02:51:21 PM
The referendum in itself is a sham, I guess they'll announce results later this evening but I predict something like 3 million turnout with less than 10% of "No" vote, which nobody will believe. There are already precincts reporting more votes than people actually live there. It's hilarious.

Now the separatist camp has its own choice to make. Proceed with an UDI (the referendum is supposedly binding), or back down from it and use the political clout they just gained to exact concessions or an actual referendum. They'll be under big pressure from their own diehards to declare independence right now, and I don't think any single western nation would recognize it, losing a lot of the capital they just gained.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 02:55:13 PM
A referendum is not a realistic option. The Constitutional Court will declare it null and void in minutes. Reforming the Constitution might have worked long-term if the Catalonian separatists hadn't gone for the confrontation game, but that way is long gone.

The only choice Rajoy has is how far he goes against the Generalitat. He can do nothing, suspend autonomy and anything in between. But his hand might be forced by the judiciary. Thousands of people are now technically implicated in crimes.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 03:14:42 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 02:51:21 PM
The referendum in itself is a sham, I guess they'll announce results later this evening but I predict something like 3 million turnout with less than 10% of "No" vote, which nobody will believe. There are already precincts reporting more votes than people actually live there. It's hilarious.

I read somewhere that the consign was given by anti-secessionist groups in Catalonia to refrain from voting. Was this true?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 03:19:04 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 02:55:13 PM
A referendum is not a realistic option. The Constitutional Court will declare it null and void in minutes. Reforming the Constitution might have worked long-term if the Catalonian separatists hadn't gone for the confrontation game, but that way is long gone.

The only choice Rajoy has is how far he goes against the Generalitat. He can do nothing, suspend autonomy and anything in between. But his hand might be forced by the judiciary. Thousands of people are now technically implicated in crimes.

Could arrest warrants be given by the Courts against the members of the Generalitat government? Or would this be impossible, for example if they are granted immunity?

Those who were arrested last week were all rather small fishes - middle people and local organizers. Members of the Generalitat seem to be left off the hook, so far.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:24:27 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 03:14:42 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 02:51:21 PM
The referendum in itself is a sham, I guess they'll announce results later this evening but I predict something like 3 million turnout with less than 10% of "No" vote, which nobody will believe. There are already precincts reporting more votes than people actually live there. It's hilarious.

I read somewhere that the consign was given by anti-secessionist groups in Catalonia to not go to vote. Was this true?

If you are against the independence then voting only hurts your position. It gives the process legitimacy.

Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 03:19:04 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 02:55:13 PM
A referendum is not a realistic option. The Constitutional Court will declare it null and void in minutes. Reforming the Constitution might have worked long-term if the Catalonian separatists hadn't gone for the confrontation game, but that way is long gone.

The only choice Rajoy has is how far he goes against the Generalitat. He can do nothing, suspend autonomy and anything in between. But his hand might be forced by the judiciary. Thousands of people are now technically implicated in crimes.

Could arrest warrants be given by the Courts against the members of the Generalitat government? Or would this be impossible, for example if they are granted immunity?

Those who were arrested last week were all rather small fishes - middle people and local organizers. Members of the Generalitat seem to be left off the hook, so far.

They are not immune to prosecution, but they can only be judged by the Catalonian Superior Court (which ordered today's police raids) or the Supreme Court.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 03:36:47 PM
Catalan president announces UDI in the next few days.

Time to raid the supermarket!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 03:39:17 PM
The EU won't be coming out of this unscathed either.
It's lack of condemnation of today's beatings probably cost it what was left of leverage over Poland and Hungary.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:42:27 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 03:39:17 PM
The EU won't be coming out of this unscathed either.

What's the EU got to do with this? :huh:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 03:52:27 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:42:27 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 03:39:17 PM
The EU won't be coming out of this unscathed either.

What's the EU got to do with this? :huh:

well, beating up people doing their civic duty (namely voting) is quite problematic. The EU likes to tell countries far and wide that they shouldn't be engaging in such -potentially entertaining- activities. This time it's a member engaging in said activity. There's now a certain amount of credibility at stake.
Expect Putin, Erdogan and other paragons of democracy to chime in shortly.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 03:54:05 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 02:51:21 PM
There are already precincts reporting more votes than people actually live there. It's hilarious.
I read that some people voted in other districts since the Spanish government blocked entry to some polls.  that could account for some discrepancy in the vote.

But it's hard ot make it legit, no matter the result, in these circumstances.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 03:57:06 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:24:27 PM
If you are against the independence then voting only hurts your position. It gives the process legitimacy.
If you are against independance, then you should vote and encourage others to vote, to give the process legitimacy and burry the idea for a while, maybe eve extinguish it for more than a generation.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:59:46 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 03:52:27 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:42:27 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 01, 2017, 03:39:17 PM
The EU won't be coming out of this unscathed either.

What's the EU got to do with this? :huh:

well, beating up people doing their civic duty (namely voting) is quite problematic. The EU likes to tell countries far and wide that they shouldn't be engaging in such -potentially entertaining- activities. This time it's a member engaging in said activity. There's now a certain amount of credibility at stake.
Expect Putin, Erdogan and other paragons of democracy to chime in shortly.

Oh for fucks sake!

As stupid as today's shit has been, it was largely carried out with extreme professionalism. Especially when compared with the way the police were kicking ass just a few years back. I didn't see shit coming from anyone back then, perhaps you remember differently.

Here, check out how the Mossos defend themselves against a couple of teenagers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFulH9I3buQ
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:05:34 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 03:57:06 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 03:24:27 PM
If you are against the independence then voting only hurts your position. It gives the process legitimacy.
If you are against independance, then you should vote and encourage others to vote, to give the process legitimacy and burry the idea for a while, maybe eve extinguish it for more than a generation.

:lol:
That's not how things work over here. They would just keep on voting until the result was "right".
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:05:57 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 03:36:47 PM
Catalan president announces UDI in the next few days.

What. The. Hell.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:07:27 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:05:57 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 03:36:47 PM
Catalan president announces UDI in the next few days.

What. The. Hell.

He didn't even wait till the results were in, did he?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 04:15:17 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:07:27 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:05:57 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 03:36:47 PM
Catalan president announces UDI in the next few days.

What. The. Hell.

He didn't even wait till the results were in, did he?

He just said that the would "apply the result" of the referendum, which nobody doubts is going to something silly like 85% yes  :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:20:19 PM
I like an idea I saw elsewhere (FC): Rajoy and Puigdemont hired a telenovela writer and decided to go with his script. :lmfao:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:22:38 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:20:19 PM
I like an idea I saw elsewhere (FC): Rajoy and Puigdemont hired a telenovela writer and decided to go with his script. :lmfao:

By this point I am hoping for a Deus Ex Machina cameo of King Felipe sweeping in to say it was all a dream.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 04:29:19 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:05:34 PM
:lol:
That's not how things work over here. They would just keep on voting until the result was "right".
I've heard federalists say that all my lives.

After the last referendum was won by the NO side with a very slim margin, there were lots of boasting from the seperatists they would do it again.  The talk is there, but it never happens.  People have gone elsewhere for now, as soon as the Federal government started treating them with respect.

Of course, it could come back.  But for now, the Seperatist party at the Federal level has but a few MPs and the provincial seperatist party, the only one who could hold a referendum is 3rd in the voting polls and has sworn not to do a referendum in the first mandate.

No political party likes to lose.  If Spain had allowed a referendum despite the Constitution, found a way to allow a vote on the independance issue, agree to the rules beforehand, it's unlikely there would have been a seperatist victory from what you tell me, and it seems doubtufl they could make a comeback referendum before half a generation, unless some unforseen change, like a Spexit.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 04:31:04 PM
The Regional Government will go forward with the UDI unless some of the moderates (if they are still there) get sweaty. Then the central government will suspend the autonomy, bring in the troops, and we'll become a more sunny version of the Ulster. Oh joy!

I guess the separatists plan on the ensuing fire and crimson to force Europe's hand. Feels so good to be a political human shield.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:36:30 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 04:31:04 PM
The Regional Government will go forward with the UDI unless some of the moderates (if they are still there) get sweaty. Then the central government will suspend the autonomy, bring in the troops, and we'll become a more sunny version of the Ulster. Oh joy!

I guess the separatists plan on the ensuing fire and crimson to force Europe's hand. Feels so good to be a political human shield.

Nah, you are being paranoid. We are not 1981 anymore and Spain is now a democratic, stable coun... oh wait.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:37:19 PM
Sending in the troops would be a truly terrible idea. Of course, this is Rajoy we are talking about. Just freeze money transfers, imprison Puigdemont & Co (at night if possible) and replace the leaders of the Mossos.


I'm still hoping for a general strike. I maintain that it's the best way to test how committed the separatists are.

Of course it would also help me quite a bit, but that's beside the point.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 01, 2017, 04:37:57 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 04:31:04 PM
The Regional Government will go forward with the UDI unless some of the moderates (if they are still there) get sweaty. Then the central government will suspend the autonomy, bring in the troops, and we'll become a more sunny version of the Ulster. Oh joy!

I guess the separatists plan on the ensuing fire and crimson to force Europe's hand. Feels so good to be a political human shield.

What do they think Europe would do?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:41:32 PM
Quote from: The Brain on October 01, 2017, 04:37:57 PM
What do they think Europe would do?

So far the EC has always been constantly on the side of the Spanish government when this issue would crop up, but now there is immense pressure for the EU to speak up against the "violent repression" in Catalonia today. I cannot see the European Commission staying silent over this, now that we might have at the very, very worst a new civil war in Spain.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 01, 2017, 04:41:38 PM
So tell me, so I have a frame of reference: on scale of 1 to 5--with 5 being a Real Madrid-Barcelona match and 1 being your average animal cruelty municipal bloodfeast--what's the potential amount of eggplant political violence here?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:43:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on October 01, 2017, 04:37:57 PM
What do they think Europe would do?

Expel Spain, obviously.

Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:41:32 PM
Quote from: The Brain on October 01, 2017, 04:37:57 PM
What do they think Europe would do?

So far the EC has always been constantly on the side of the Spanish government when this issue would crop up, but now there is immense pressure for the EU to speak up against the "violent repression" in Catalonia today. I cannot see the European Commission staying silent over this, now that we might have at the very, very worst a new civil war in Spain.

The worst thing the Commision can do right now is get involved in this.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:44:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 01, 2017, 04:41:38 PM
So tell me, so I have a frame of reference: on scale of 1 to 5--with 5 being a Real Madrid-Barcelona match and 1 being your average animal cruelty municipal bloodfeast--what's the potential amount of eggplant political violence here?

We are reaching the period right after Abraham Lincoln was elected in 1860 and the Southern states went apeshit for secession - and the Northern states and congressmen were calling it as a bluff. And in a few days, North Carolina declares secession.

We are not at Fort Sumter, though. Yet.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:45:42 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:43:22 PM
The worst thing the Commision can do right now is get involved in this.

Thing is, can they remain silent without losing total credibility? Spain remains a major partner in the European Union.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 01, 2017, 04:46:52 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:44:26 PM
We are reaching the period right after Abraham Lincoln was elected in 1860 and the Southern states went apeshit.

We are not at Fort Sumter, though. Yet.

Oh, that's not good.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 01, 2017, 04:47:55 PM
Am I the only one picturing Drakken saying this all breathless with excitement?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:49:30 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 01, 2017, 04:47:55 PM
Am I the only one picturing Drakken saying this all breathless with excitement?

I am actually very worried about the turn of events, like quite a many Quebecers are - for obvious reasons.

Ask Viper.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 01, 2017, 04:51:12 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:49:30 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 01, 2017, 04:47:55 PM
Am I the only one picturing Drakken saying this all breathless with excitement?

I am actually very worried about the turn of events, like quite a many Quebecers are - for obvious reasons.

Ask Viper.

I sincerely doubt Madrid is going to let Quebec secede either.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:59:57 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 01, 2017, 04:51:12 PM
I sincerely doubt Madrid is going to let Quebec secede either.

The Catalan example (like Scotland) are states that are presented as living similar experiences to Quebec by our secessionnist movements here. Many of their representatives, like Martine Ouellet, are in Catalonia right now as observers (unfortunately for us, Martine will be coming back). We also have mainstream journalists there to cover the events.

Needless to say, they are going bonkers about this "political repression of the popular will", so it occupies our political discussions here as well. It is front news here in Montreal, with Singh's election second. Plus, while I am Federalist I am still very worried that things can go even more haywire for people in Catalonia as well. It's not just a division between Rajoy and the Generalitat, but also Catalan secessionists against Catalan non-secessionists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 05:05:37 PM
There's talk of general elections if the socialists do not support Rajoy. Seems like they want to sink PSOE for good.

In theory PP would crush the opposition everywhere other than Catalonia and the Basque Country, but if the Tories have teached us anything is to expect the unexpected...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 05:11:24 PM
I'm looking at some of the precincts reporting, turnout is consistently lower across the board from 2014 (the other self-determination referendum the nationalists held, which had a 43% turnout). They might doctor the numbers when Barcelona comes in, which is a huge swathe of the census, but if that's a mandate for secession - we are looking at 40% turnout -, they're nuts.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 01, 2017, 05:13:32 PM
PP, hehe.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 05:17:39 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 05:11:24 PM
I'm looking at some of the precincts reporting, turnout is consistently lower across the board from 2014 (the other self-determination referendum the nationalists held, which had a 43% turnout). They might doctor the numbers when Barcelona comes in, which is a huge swathe of the census, but if that's a mandate for secession - we are looking at 40% turnout -, they're nuts.

Well, they are already in for sedition. They might as well go for rebellion as well. You know, in for a penny ...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 05:29:05 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:44:26 PM
We are not at Fort Sumter, though. Yet.
if Spain calls for volunteers to invade Catalonia and restore order, there will be a Fort Sumter, I think.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 05:30:58 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 01, 2017, 04:47:55 PM
Am I the only one picturing Drakken saying this all breathless with excitement?
Yes, you are.  He looks worried to me.  So am I, frankly, even if I don't really know anyone from there (meaning I only know our Spanish poster from there).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 05:33:32 PM
2,250,000 votes (43% of census), 90% Yes.  :lol:

The Catalan Republic gets started with a banana republic poll.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 05:34:23 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 01, 2017, 04:59:57 PM
(unfortunately for us, Martine will be coming back).
Maybe they'll close the border and she'll be stuck there for a while.

Quote
Needless to say, they are going bonkers about this "political repression of the popular will", so it occupies our political discussions here as well. It is front news here in Montreal, with Singh's election second. Plus, while I am Federalist I am still very worried that things can go even more haywire for people in Catalonia as well. It's not just a division between Rajoy and the Generalitat, but also Catalan secessionists against Catalan non-secessionists.
Same here.  Except I don't wake up singing Oh Canada in my maple leaf boxers. ;)

Things could go from bad to worst very quickly and the central government isn't doing anything to calm it down.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 05:35:22 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 01, 2017, 05:33:32 PM
2,250,000 votes (43% of census), 90% Yes.  :lol:

The Catalan Republic gets started with a banana republic poll.
if, as Iormlund says, most NO supporters refused to vote, then it is hardly surprising.  Also, the police repression must have fueled the seperatist fires there.

Still, a referendum held in these conditions isn't worth much on the international scene.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 05:40:41 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 04:29:19 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:05:34 PM
:lol:
That's not how things work over here. They would just keep on voting until the result was "right".
I've heard federalists say that all my lives.

After the last referendum was won by the NO side with a very slim margin, there were lots of boasting from the seperatists they would do it again.  The talk is there, but it never happens.  People have gone elsewhere for now, as soon as the Federal government started treating them with respect.

Of course, it could come back.  But for now, the Seperatist party at the Federal level has but a few MPs and the provincial seperatist party, the only one who could hold a referendum is 3rd in the voting polls and has sworn not to do a referendum in the first mandate.

No political party likes to lose.  If Spain had allowed a referendum despite the Constitution, found a way to allow a vote on the independance issue, agree to the rules beforehand, it's unlikely there would have been a seperatist victory from what you tell me, and it seems doubtufl they could make a comeback referendum before half a generation, unless some unforseen change, like a Spexit.
I think you are projecting the situation there too much.

The scenario you outline might have been realistic a few decades ago, but no more.

The Catalonian Christian-democrats (CiU) dominated the region since Franco died. They routinely played the nationalist card when they wanted more powers. This went on for around 30 years, until the nationalism they had cultivated as a weapon overtook them. By now the separatist sentiment is really strong, and centered in the very young and the extreme left. The moderates are now hanging on to dear life, carried by a tsunami of their own making.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 01, 2017, 05:41:24 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 05:34:23 PM

Same here.  Except I don't wake up singing Oh Canada in my maple leaf boxers. ;)


You should try it, it's good for the soul. Especially the English version :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 05:48:24 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 04:37:19 PM
I'm still hoping for a general strike. I maintain that it's the best way to test how committed the separatists are.

Of course it would also help me quite a bit, but that's beside the point.  :P

One of the largest unions has joined the call for a strike tomorrow. The other will decide today.  :yeah:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 06:34:27 PM
Almost final results are in.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLFrtHvW4AASmRc.jpg)



Official census is 5.5 million voters, so about 36% voted yes according to the organizers.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: alfred russel on October 01, 2017, 06:43:50 PM
If things do go to shit, I at least look forward to the release of "Spanish Civil War II: Total War".
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2017, 10:05:38 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 01, 2017, 05:40:41 PM
By now the separatist sentiment is really strong, and centered in the very young and the extreme left.
that's worst than I thought.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: citizen k on October 01, 2017, 11:12:15 PM
The Abraham Lincoln brigade stands ready.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 02, 2017, 01:27:48 AM
The Germans and Italians are on standby.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 02, 2017, 02:21:16 AM
Quote from: The Brain on October 02, 2017, 01:27:48 AM
The Germans and Italians are on standby.

Why? No need to airlift Moroccans, they are already there.  :smarty:

Still, what would Salazar do?  :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 02, 2017, 03:33:13 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 06, 2017, 03:13:07 PM
That might've been true if it was still the previous guys (Mas & Co.). But the guys now running the government? They are true believers. Nope, they are going all the way.



Just realized the godfather Pujol is really forgotten now to be mentioned by &Co.  :(  :D

Btw, thank you for the local coverage, this applies somewhat to Iormlund, though he is from Cæsaraugusta I believe. It' missing a centre-of-right catalan nationalist/regionalist though.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 02, 2017, 06:24:34 AM
Just landed in Barcelona this morning, so far nobody has asked me for my passport. :sleep:

Flag sellers must have made a killing lately.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 09:54:50 AM
Gf had her first conflict at work. All the rest wanted to shut down the place completely for the week.

Told her to talk to her boss. She'll be working from home tomorrow.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 02, 2017, 10:07:03 AM
what's the reasoning behind the striking?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 10:32:05 AM
A show of force. The Generalitat has also made sure tomorrow is as chaotic as possible by giving a paid holiday to every public employee.  :rolleyes:

SEAT (part of VW group) has already come against the strike. Devious little bastards. I need to build stock. :glare:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 02, 2017, 10:43:16 AM
Well this situation sure has gone to shit.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 02, 2017, 11:58:53 AM
I read a comment somewhere that simply this is simply old reflexes, the kind of response Spanish politicians learned from the time of dealing with the Basques. Only difference is, we now have the Internet and mobile cameras.

Is that a valid assessment?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 02, 2017, 12:06:51 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 02, 2017, 11:58:53 AM
I read a comment somewhere that simply this is simply old reflexes, the kind of response Spanish politicians learned from the time of dealing with the Basques. Only difference is, we now have the Internet and mobile cameras.

Is that a valid assessment?

It is not. Riot police actions in the Basque Country usually involved the regional police charging against small groups of actual rioters breaking/burning stuff.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 02, 2017, 12:08:56 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 10:32:05 AM
A show of force. The Generalitat has also made sure tomorrow is as chaotic as possible by giving a paid holiday to every public employee.  :rolleyes:

SEAT (part of VW group) has already come against the strike. Devious little bastards. I need to build stock. :glare:

Apparently there's also a 10-day subway strike. What's the aim here? I really can't see the line linking "pissing everybody off" with "support for independence"  :D

Fortunately I work from home and I don't have any more scheduled meetings this week.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 12:11:19 PM
The subway is always on strike anyway.  :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 12:18:38 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 02, 2017, 11:58:53 AM
I read a comment somewhere that simply this is simply old reflexes, the kind of response Spanish politicians learned from the time of dealing with the Basques. Only difference is, we now have the Internet and mobile cameras.

Is that a valid assessment?

The Basques never did something like this. It's new territory.

It must be said that Euskadi is quite different. The situation there was orders of magnitude worse for decades. As in always looking behind your back and under your car.
The situation there is cooler now, still dominated by the business-friendly conservatives, whose votes Rajoy needs to pass the budget. And they do have control over taxes, which is what precipitated this whole thing.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 02, 2017, 12:27:10 PM
If only the PP hadn't asked the courts to gut the 2006 autonomy-agreement then. That seems to be the event that sparks the events leading up to now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 02, 2017, 12:31:54 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 02, 2017, 12:27:10 PM
If only the PP hadn't asked the courts to gut the 2006 autonomy-agreement then. That seems to be the event that sparks the events leading up to now.

2006? You are kind of reaching there aren't you?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 02, 2017, 12:34:40 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 12:11:19 PM
The subway is always on strike anyway.  :lol:
you inherited more than a King from the French?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 02, 2017, 12:37:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 02, 2017, 12:34:40 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 12:11:19 PM
The subway is always on strike anyway.  :lol:
you inherited more than a King from the French?

The French are hardly unique in Europe about this sort of thing.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 02, 2017, 12:41:18 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 02, 2017, 12:31:54 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 02, 2017, 12:27:10 PM
If only the PP hadn't asked the courts to gut the 2006 autonomy-agreement then. That seems to be the event that sparks the events leading up to now.

2006? You are kind of reaching there aren't you?

To which Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia do you think he should refer?

You do know the history of the 2006 statute, right?  I mean, you'd not accuse CI of reaching unless you understood the situation and had a better alternative, right?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 02, 2017, 12:43:01 PM
I did not mention any sort of Statute of Autonomy. You must be talking about somebody else's post and quoted mine by mistake.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 02, 2017, 12:44:31 PM
Grumbler can't be bothered to wiki, so he's asking you to explain the statute for him.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 12:49:51 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 02, 2017, 12:27:10 PM
If only the PP hadn't asked the courts to gut the 2006 autonomy-agreement then. That seems to be the event that sparks the events leading up to now.

Nah. It accelerated things, but separatism has been slowly rising for decades. It's all about media and education control.

If the Generalitat controlled its own source of revenue Spain would have far fewer cards right now to defuse the situation.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 02, 2017, 01:56:22 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 02, 2017, 12:43:01 PM
I did not mention any sort of Statute of Autonomy. You must be talking about somebody else's post and quoted mine by mistake.

Then you did the same to Crazy Ivan, so I guess that's all okay.  He wasn't reaching, and you were accusing someone else, and just quoted him by mistake.  Got it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 02, 2017, 01:58:36 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 02, 2017, 12:44:31 PM
Grumbler can't be bothered to wiki, so he's asking you to explain the statute for him.  :P

Eddie can't read even the posts here, and so is asking if anyone can explain to him what I said. :P

I know a fair amount about the Autonomy Statute of 2006, and what happened to it when it was challenged in court (including the 2010 ruling that CI blames for the current troubles).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 02, 2017, 02:02:09 PM
Quote from: grumbler on October 02, 2017, 01:58:36 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 02, 2017, 12:44:31 PM
Grumbler can't be bothered to wiki, so he's asking you to explain the statute for him.  :P

Eddie can't read even the posts here, and so is asking if anyone can explain to him what I said. :P

Nah, I was running with my own interpretation, right or wrong.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 02, 2017, 02:39:39 PM
So what's the word from Madrid so far? And in non-Catalonian medias? Seems they have gone awfully silent since yesterday.

When the government remains silent in Habsburg monarchies, that's when we should worry. Nothing for a while, we leave our guards down then boom! We are handed a Habsburg-signed ultimatum with 48 hours to comply or else.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 02, 2017, 02:41:48 PM
They are mostly expecting to see whether the regional government moves for an UDI and react accordingly (suspending  the autonomy).

The separatists seem a bit jittery about it,  and have pushed back the session (initially scheduled for tomorrow) until the weekend, and are now calling for "international mediation" and such. They are aware that a full-out UDI would receive a cold shower from everywhere west of the Elbe. However, the diehards want it right now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 02, 2017, 02:43:14 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 02, 2017, 02:39:39 PM
When the government remains silent in Habsburg monarchies, that's when we should worry. Nothing for a while, we leave our guards down then boom! We are handed a Habsburg-signed ultimatum with 48 hours to comply or else.

Yes but in Bourbon monarchies that just means they are going hunting and ignoring the situation.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 02, 2017, 02:46:31 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 12:49:51 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 02, 2017, 12:27:10 PM
If only the PP hadn't asked the courts to gut the 2006 autonomy-agreement then. That seems to be the event that sparks the events leading up to now.

1) Nah. It accelerated things, but separatism has been slowly rising for decades. It's all about media and education control.

2)If the Generalitat controlled its own source of revenue Spain would have far fewer cards right now to defuse the situation.

1) yes, Spain has bit of a bad rep on that front, and within living memory too. And so what if separatism has been rising? Governing your own nation, as an independent state, is a legitimate political concept. As legitimate as not wanting to separate.


2) Alternatively: giving Catalonia the statute to which it has right to, as agreed on between Madrid and Barcelona, and confirmed by absolute majority via referendum might have been the better idea. Instead of gutting said agreement in what seems to be a case of 'cutting of the nose to spite the face'.

edit: just saying, but if a nation really wants to go independent there's nothing the mother-country can do except using ever harder means of repression. Not sure that is the way to go.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 02, 2017, 02:51:29 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 02, 2017, 02:43:14 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 02, 2017, 02:39:39 PM
When the government remains silent in Habsburg monarchies, that's when we should worry. Nothing for a while, we leave our guards down then boom! We are handed a Habsburg-signed ultimatum with 48 hours to comply or else.

Yes but in Bourbon monarchies that just means they are going hunting and ignoring the situation.

Oh yeah. Silly me.  :shutup:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 02, 2017, 03:06:55 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 02, 2017, 02:43:14 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 02, 2017, 02:39:39 PM
When the government remains silent in Habsburg monarchies, that's when we should worry. Nothing for a while, we leave our guards down then boom! We are handed a Habsburg-signed ultimatum with 48 hours to comply or else.

Yes but in Bourbon monarchies that just means they are going hunting and ignoring the situation.

:lol:  Somebody's binging Versailles but pretending that they've just read books.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 03:07:01 PM
Most people are digesting the situation.

Stocks are down, driven by banks and especially Catalonian banks. Caixabank already took some steps regarding moving to Madrid after the last fake-referendum. I don't know about Sabadell. But I expect both to make the change swiftly if UDI is triggered. It's going to be hard as it is for them to stay liquid.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 02, 2017, 03:17:48 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 02, 2017, 03:07:01 PM
Most people are digesting the situation.

Stocks are down, driven by banks and especially Catalonian banks. Caixabank already took some steps regarding moving to Madrid after the last fake-referendum. I don't know about Sabadell. But I expect both to make the change swiftly if UDI is triggered. It's going to be hard as it is for them to stay liquid.

Sabadell are pretty leveraged since they used the last banking crisis to go on a buying binge of depreciated assets to buy themselves the status of Spanish big bank. So they are rather vulnerable if things go pear-shaped.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 05:05:03 AM
So, general strike. Transportation is down and main roads into Barcelona have been cut by protesters. Tyres being burned. There's demos all over the place, tempers flaring high. Fortunately no violence yet.

My separatist friends have this inclination of spamming me with *every* communication released by the separatist orgs, and right now they are full on calling for avoiding any kind of violence. This tells me they are unsure about controlling the situation. I hope they do.

That's the kind of shit I used to read about other countries.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 03, 2017, 05:56:27 AM
Oh boy a general strike in Barcelona is really going to intimidate all the cities that aren't Barcelona.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 07:17:54 AM
Spanish Interior Minister just declared a few moments ago that the Catalan government was "inciting rebellion". Article 155 invocation is around the corner.

Oh boy.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 07:55:22 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 03, 2017, 05:56:27 AM
Oh boy a general strike in Barcelona is really going to intimidate all the cities that aren't Barcelona.

It's intimidating the non-separatists in Barcelona.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 03, 2017, 08:34:14 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 07:55:22 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 03, 2017, 05:56:27 AM
Oh boy a general strike in Barcelona is really going to intimidate all the cities that aren't Barcelona.

It's intimidating the non-separatists in Barcelona.

I think you need to decide if independent Catalonia is a desirable outcome or not. If yes, stay and actively back and help the separatists, but if not, I'd be in a hurry trying to move my family out to other parts of Spain, temporarily. Sounds like things are going to get far worse before they normalise. I'd guess that even if the majority wants to de-escalate, the separatists have been radicalised too much for them to give up without some form of a fight.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 08:56:10 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 03, 2017, 08:34:14 AM
I think you need to decide if independent Catalonia is a desirable outcome or not. If yes, stay and actively back and help the separatists, but if not, I'd be in a hurry trying to move my family out to other parts of Spain, temporarily. Sounds like things are going to get far worse before they normalise. I'd guess that even if the majority wants to de-escalate, the separatists have been radicalised too much for them to give up without some form of a fight.

It's true that the majority wants to de-escalate. Moderate nationalist papers are running like headless chickens screaming in panic, but the street has taken over, mobs are setting the political agenda now. What could go wrong?

It's damn obvious now that the nationalist establishment DOESN'T want an UDI, they'd probably like to issue some pompous declaration that manages to kick the can down the road, but the radicals would eat them alive if it looks like they may be backing down. Yes, they won a huge PR victory this Sunday due to Madrid's utter idiocy, but they have backed themselves into a corner too.

And yeah, independent Catalonia would be an economic and social disaster, so I'm trying to secure a Plan B if it comes to pass. And I really don't see how we can return to a peaceful status quo in the short term.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 03, 2017, 09:00:34 AM
Yeah that's what I mean, it looks like an extreme, violent variant on the Brexit theme: the mob was given a chance to rule and they would not let that slip without a fight, which forces the hand of the leaders who are terrified of them and what they'd do with the country if the leaders tried to force through a sensible course of action.

It's the same here except the EU did not send in riot police.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 09:25:59 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 08:56:10 AM

It's damn obvious now that the nationalist establishment DOESN'T want an UDI, they'd probably like to issue some pompous declaration that manages to kick the can down the road, but the radicals would eat them alive if it looks like they may be backing down. Yes, they won a huge PR victory this Sunday due to Madrid's utter idiocy, but they have backed themselves into a corner too.

Well, duh. Like all moderates in secessionist movements, they naively expected their adversary to just roll down, bow to "popular will", admit defeat, and start negotiating terms under their enlightened, rational leadership.

Now they have lost all control of the agenda. No UDI now will mean the de-facto end of Catalonia autonomy. Madrid is not only refusing to back down, they are actually upping the ante calling them rebels now - a code word for "we will be using force to utterly crush you if you do not back down". They know no one in the EU will come to their help because many of their partners have their own nationalist movements to deal with, so they are starting to see the writing on the wall and that they are risking to lose everything.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 09:47:42 AM
My fear is that they will see an UDI as the only gamble for survival, seeking to provoke the suspension of the autonomy and with that launch more mobs into the streets. Then the only way for Madrid to re-assert control is through violence, and with that violence will come more calls for international intervention.

Or Madrid can just sit it out and use soft power (afterall, they control the money flows). But after Sunday I'm pretty convinced this administration doesn't have that coolness.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 03, 2017, 09:50:53 AM
They should have been cool all along and only given the secessionists air to punch at. Their system seemed ideal to do just that. I guess it was that rather rash judge that set them off. Now Catalonia is part of the rebel alliance and a traitor.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 10:01:48 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 09:47:42 AM
Or Madrid can just sit it out and use soft power (afterall, they control the money flows). But after Sunday I'm pretty convinced this administration doesn't have that coolness.

This same misconception would be happening on Madrid's side: They'd expect the separatists to turn on their backs and surrender just because the money would not be entering anymore.

Problem is that if Madrid simply closes the money flow, UDI becomes unavoidable because Catalonia will have no other option but to repatriate their taxation points and start doing their own taxation, and this means independence since by the Constitution autonomous regions have no power of taxation. Or, they could borrow money on international markets waging on international recognition of their independence (good luck with that).

They are now on illegal grounds, why not go full way? In for the rope for a penny...

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 10:03:44 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 03, 2017, 09:50:53 AM
They should have been cool all along and only given the secessionists air to punch at. Their system seemed ideal to do just that. I guess it was that rather rash judge that set them off. Now Catalonia is part of the rebel alliance and a traitor.

President Rajoy did just that during the previous secession vote in 2014 (really, this is just fucking Groundhog Day sometimes), allowing it to happen without sending in the police, and letting judges dish out the appropriate punishments afterwards (the previous nationalist government was all fined and disqualified from office). And... it worked, the vote produced the same numbers as this one and it was ignored by everybody. But he came under big pressure from hardcore conservative quarters for allowing the vote to happen at all.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 10:08:38 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 10:01:48 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 09:47:42 AM
Or Madrid can just sit it out and use soft power (afterall, they control the money flows). But after Sunday I'm pretty convinced this administration doesn't have that coolness.

This same misconception would be happening on Madrid's side: They'd expect the separatists to turn on their backs and surrender just because the money would not be entering anymore.

Problem is that if Madrid simply closes the money flow, UDI becomes unavoidable because Catalonia will have no other option but to repatriate their taxation points and start doing their own taxation, and this means independence - or borrow money.

They are now on illegal grounds, why not go full way? In for the rope for a penny...

They can't do that. Madrid controls 90% of taxation at all points of the process (including the actual collection). Catalonia would need to deploy a tax collection structure (which isn't ready at all) and convince everybody to pay taxes to them instead of Madrid. And setting everything up is a process that takes months that they wouldn't have. Borrowing money is a non-option with the regional government having a junk bond rating. They can go and seize state assets, but then we're at Fort Sumter.

But I don't think this Madrid administration would play it cool.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 10:14:03 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 10:08:38 AM

They can't do that. Madrid controls 90% of taxation at all points of the process (including the actual collection). Catalonia would need to deploy a tax collection structure (which isn't ready at all) and convince everybody to pay taxes to them instead of Madrid. And setting everything up is a process that takes months that they wouldn't have. Borrowing money is a non-option with the regional government having a junk bond rating. They can go and seize state assets, but then we're at Fort Sumter.

But I don't think this Madrid administration would play it cool.

If they go for UDI, they can - Constitution would no longer apply in Catalonia. The government will self-attribute the mandate to tax its citizens and establish its tax collection structure. In the short term, this means seize all state Spanish assets on the Catalonian soil - including tax collection structures.

I am not saying they will succeed. But if they proclaim an UDI they either go all the way or it remains empty words. Sovereignty - and recognition - requires control and assertion of power over a given territory.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 10:19:49 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 10:14:03 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 10:08:38 AM

They can't do that. Madrid controls 90% of taxation at all points of the process (including the actual collection). Catalonia would need to deploy a tax collection structure (which isn't ready at all) and convince everybody to pay taxes to them instead of Madrid. And setting everything up is a process that takes months that they wouldn't have. Borrowing money is a non-option with the regional government having a junk bond rating. They can go and seize state assets, but then we're at Fort Sumter.

But I don't think this Madrid administration would play it cool.

If they go for UDI, they can - Constitution would no longer apply in Catalonia. The government will self-attribute the mandate to tax its citizens and establish its tax collection structure. In the short term, this means seize all state Spanish assets on the Catalonian soil - including tax collection structures.



This implies violence starting on the separatist side - these buildings are protected by Spanish police -, which renders the "I'm oppressed please help!" angle moot. The only way out for separatists is to provoke an international intervention that imposes a solution favorable to them. To me, that only happens if they bait Madrid into overreacting again.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 10:27:06 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 10:19:49 AM
This implies violence starting on the separatist side - these buildings are protected by Spanish police -, which renders the "I'm oppressed please help!" angle moot. The only way out for separatists is to provoke an international intervention that imposes a solution favorable to them.

Oh, I agree with you on this. But then, there is no UDI and the separatists know that. UDI means booting the Spanish out of Catalonia.

International intervention will not come and Madrid knows that. Madrid's position is that states have the inherent right to protect their territorial integrity. I am sure Rajoy has had plenty of conversations with other members of the EU following Sunday. If he puffs his chest like this, it is because he is sure that no one will dare to condemn Spain to the point of intervening in its domestic affairs. The current silence of other EU countries over the whole issue is well damning enough.

What the separatists do not realize, is that international law does not recognize UDIs except in cases of extreme circumstances or gross human rights violation. UDIs are not permitted by international law, except backed by force or a consensus of international powers. While "violently" repressed, everyone except Catalonian separatists agrees that Sunday's referendum was a worthless sham. No one will come to their aid unless they become willing partners to a civil war party.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 03, 2017, 11:01:00 AM
Bad timing for Catalunya really. Brexit is occupying Europe's attention at the moment and they can't be dealing with this.
Independent Catalunya in the EU is perfectly viable. Catalunya cut off from Spain and the rest of Europe...haha no.
Though apparently there are mutterings from idiots about them hooking up with the UK and Barcelona playing in the premier league :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 03, 2017, 11:06:17 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 03, 2017, 11:01:00 AM
Brexit is occupying Europe's attention at the moment


That really is not my impression. The EU negotiators are quite clearly holding the UK by the balls, can't see EU officials sweating over that one.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 03, 2017, 11:08:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 03, 2017, 11:06:17 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 03, 2017, 11:01:00 AM
Brexit is occupying Europe's attention at the moment


That really is not my impression. The EU negotiators are quite clearly holding the UK by the balls, can't see EU officials sweating over that one.
OK. Rephrase.
As far as the EU is concerned with exceptional incidents (not very. Most of their time goes to standard operations), Brexit is occupying their attention.

And yep. The EU has  the UK by the balls...however it is doing this whilst the UK dangles off the edge of a cliff. It'd rather not drop the UK as much as the UK is trying its best to be dropped.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 03, 2017, 11:30:25 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 03, 2017, 11:01:00 AM

Though apparently there are mutterings from idiots about them hooking up with the UK and Barcelona playing in the premier league :lol:

This calls for a poll!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 11:33:05 AM
Last time we allied with the Brits in a conflict against the rest of Spain they left us in the lurch.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
There are already videos circulating of violence between teenagers from both sides. Plus any protracted strike will lead to separatist violence.

By cutting the supply lines (highways) the movement has managed to halt the production of recently launched Ibiza and Arona at Seat Martorell. Ahh, to be a fly on the wall when Puigdemont got the call from Herr Volkswagen...  :lol:
Nissan is also partially stopped, and many Tier 1s and 2s probably share the same fate. Auto industry makes up 8% of Catalonia's GDP. With very narrow margins, separatists are putting in jeopardy their economic future.

Caixabank, Bank Sabadell, Gas Natural/Fenosa and every other company with big interests in Spain are probably enacting contingency plans as we speak to move their operations and taxes to Madrid or elsewhere in the EU. Grifols, for many years an independentist rolemodel, already shifted their financial operations to Ireland.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 12:32:01 PM
I really don't think the regional government controls this anymore. The separatist orgs have taken over. These frantic calls are surely happening, but are probably being answered with shrugging of shoulders.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:35:10 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 12:32:01 PM
I really don't think the regional government controls this anymore. The separatist orgs have taken over. These frantic calls are surely happening, but are probably being answered with shrugging of shoulders.

If you just shrug your shoulders when Herr Volkswagen is chewing your ass, you have a BIG problem.

[edit] To further elaborate, and speaking from personal professional experience: VW is not going to be that mad if you have a problem, as long as you have a clear action plan behind it. Shit happens.
But if you have no control over the situation, they will start looking for a plan B. You really don't want to be in that position.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 01:11:45 PM
Given the circumstances and Catalonia's suicide as a state with any relevant power, I vote for renaming this thread The shit jumps and falls manly on the fan.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 03, 2017, 01:25:19 PM
Spanish ETF is remarkably unaffected.  Down maybe 2%.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 03, 2017, 01:50:49 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
. With very narrow margins, separatists are putting in jeopardy their economic future.

I cannot think of many countries that haven't been willing to pay the economic price to either achieve their independence, or to keep it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 01:54:55 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 03, 2017, 01:50:49 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
. With very narrow margins, separatists are putting in jeopardy their economic future.

I cannot think of many countries that haven't been willing to pay the economic price to either achieve their independence, or to keep it.

How many have accepted to pay this economic price to leave a liberal democracy?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 02:20:41 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 01:54:55 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 03, 2017, 01:50:49 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
. With very narrow margins, separatists are putting in jeopardy their economic future.

I cannot think of many countries that haven't been willing to pay the economic price to either achieve their independence, or to keep it.

How many have accepted to pay this economic price to leave a liberal democracy?

We live under a fascist dictatorship, haven't you heard?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 03, 2017, 02:22:52 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 01:54:55 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 03, 2017, 01:50:49 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
. With very narrow margins, separatists are putting in jeopardy their economic future.

I cannot think of many countries that haven't been willing to pay the economic price to either achieve their independence, or to keep it.

How many have accepted to pay this economic price to leave a liberal democracy?

irrelevant.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 02:32:04 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 02:20:41 PM

We live under a fascist dictatorship, haven't you heard?

Have you checked on Generalissimo Francisco Franco lately? Last time we enquired about his health, long time ago, he was still dead. We have forgotten him a bit since then, so maybe he is feeling better?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 02:41:45 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 02:32:04 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 02:20:41 PM

We live under a fascist dictatorship, haven't you heard?

Have you checked on Generalissimo Francisco Franco lately? Last time we enquired about his health, long time ago, he was still dead. We have forgotten him a bit since then, so maybe he is feeling better?

I love that bit. :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 02:45:52 PM
The king just appeared on TV to give a speech. This is rather momentous, since it only had happened twice since we became a democracy - always on big national crises. The Spanish monarchy usually keeps a low profile.

Tough speech - as tough as his limited Constitutional role allows him, that is - but he certainly drew a line in the sand. Madrid's not gonna back down from this, not after putting the king's reputation on the line.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 02:47:26 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 02:45:52 PM
The king just appeared on TV to give a speech. This is rather momentous, since it only had happened twice since we became a democracy - always on big national crises.

Tough speech - as tough as his limited Constitutional role allows him, that is - but he certainly drew a line in the sand. Madrid's not gonna back down from this, not after putting the king's reputation on the line.

Ay, joder. :huh:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 03, 2017, 02:52:06 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 01:54:55 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 03, 2017, 01:50:49 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
. With very narrow margins, separatists are putting in jeopardy their economic future.

I cannot think of many countries that haven't been willing to pay the economic price to either achieve their independence, or to keep it.

How many have accepted to pay this economic price to leave a liberal democracy?
Americans were living in a form of democracy.  For 1776, it was a pretty liberal democracy for a lot of things.  Much more thant was granted to other colonies.  Yet, they risked their economic future, and for many years, Americans fled to Canada in search of better economic opportunities.
Algeria's situation by 1954 was similar to that of the American colony, but they jeopardized their future in waging war for independance.
Brexit was the UK leaving the European Union, a democracy in its own.
Scotland tried to leave the UK, a liberal democracy.

If we remove the clause "leaving a liberal democracy" you would find many seperatist movements in history that left one regime for another similar regime.  Many of the Ex USSR republics who became independant do not have any more democracy than what they had inside the USSR.  So, lots of people trade one regime for another identical/similar, for various reasons.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 02:53:11 PM
From CNN:

QuoteIn a televised statement, King Felipe said the referendum's organizers had jeopardized national stability. "With their decisions, they have systematically undermined the rules approved legally and legitimately, showing an unacceptable disloyalty towards the powers of the state -- a state that represents Catalan interests," he said.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 03, 2017, 03:00:57 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 03, 2017, 01:50:49 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
. With very narrow margins, separatists are putting in jeopardy their economic future.

I cannot think of many countries that haven't been willing to pay the economic price to either achieve their independence, or to keep it.

Except all the ones that didn't. But why would nationalists care? Individual people and their welfare means nothing to you.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 03, 2017, 03:05:03 PM
Hey Viper the American Revolution was not about independence until after the war had been going on for a year.

Every other example either proves you wrong, Scotland decided to stay in the UK, or is total BS.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 03, 2017, 03:26:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 03, 2017, 03:05:03 PM
Hey Viper the American Revolution was not about independence until after the war had been going on for a year.
Sure they did not declared independance.  They only expelled all Royal officials from the colony and raised an army to fight the British.  Totally different.  People were fighting to maintain good relations with the British King for a year?
C'mon.
Next thing, you'll tell me the Southerners did not rebel to protect slavery until later in the war?

Quote
Every other example either proves you wrong, Scotland decided to stay in the UK, or is total BS.
they wanted to leave.  so they were willing to jeopardize their economic future.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 03, 2017, 03:27:27 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 02:53:11 PM
From CNN:

QuoteIn a televised statement, King Felipe said the referendum's organizers had jeopardized national stability. "With their decisions, they have systematically undermined the rules approved legally and legitimately, showing an unacceptable disloyalty towards the powers of the state -- a state that represents Catalan interests," he said.
It's going to get worst, imho.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 03, 2017, 03:43:13 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 03, 2017, 03:05:03 PM


Every other example either proves you wrong, Scotland decided to stay in the UK, or is total BS.

Algeria is way messed up nowadays, I even heard Algerians discussing once the what if Algeria stays French with some autonomy status.
Even for Algeria with their lunatic socialist policies afterwards? Though given how troublesome to assimilate Algerians in France are, France actually saved its future, instead of jeopardizing it, by getting rid of even more Algerians. De Gaulle had no illusions in this matter and would pass as racist nowadays with its (unofficial) thoughts on the matter.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 03:45:44 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 02:53:11 PM
From CNN:

QuoteIn a televised statement, King Felipe said the referendum's organizers had jeopardized national stability. "With their decisions, they have systematically undermined the rules approved legally and legitimately, showing an unacceptable disloyalty towards the powers of the state -- a state that represents Catalan interests," he said.

This... feels like a mistake.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 03, 2017, 03:55:47 PM
he's gotta say something.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 03, 2017, 03:57:40 PM
Looks bad if the head of state won't speak up for the state.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: mongers on October 03, 2017, 04:00:02 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 03:45:44 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 02:53:11 PM
From CNN:

QuoteIn a televised statement, King Felipe said the referendum's organizers had jeopardized national stability. "With their decisions, they have systematically undermined the rules approved legally and legitimately, showing an unacceptable disloyalty towards the powers of the state -- a state that represents Catalan interests," he said.

This... feels like a mistake.

The Queen would have said something similar if Scotland had declared UDI.   :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 04:07:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 03, 2017, 04:00:02 PM
The Queen would have said something similar if Scotland had declared UDI.   :P

Except she didn't say anything like this during the Scots referendum.  And the Catalans, to date, haven't declared independence.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 03, 2017, 04:10:47 PM
kind of late for the king to speak out against independence once they've already declared independence :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 03, 2017, 04:12:16 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 04:07:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 03, 2017, 04:00:02 PM
The Queen would have said something similar if Scotland had declared UDI.   :P

Except she didn't say anything like this during the Scots referendum.  And the Catalans, to date, haven't declared independence.

Wasn't the Scotland referendum a real referendum?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 03, 2017, 04:16:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on October 03, 2017, 04:12:16 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 04:07:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 03, 2017, 04:00:02 PM
The Queen would have said something similar if Scotland had declared UDI.   :P

Except she didn't say anything like this during the Scots referendum.  And the Catalans, to date, haven't declared independence.

Wasn't the Scotland referendum a real referendum?

Brexit was supposed to be an opinion poll...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: alfred russel on October 03, 2017, 04:21:33 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 04:07:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 03, 2017, 04:00:02 PM
The Queen would have said something similar if Scotland had declared UDI.   :P

Except she didn't say anything like this during the Scots referendum.  And the Catalans, to date, haven't declared independence.

The king of spain must have felt really strongly. He probably canceled an elephant hunt or something.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 04:23:34 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 03, 2017, 04:21:33 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 04:07:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 03, 2017, 04:00:02 PM
The Queen would have said something similar if Scotland had declared UDI.   :P

Except she didn't say anything like this during the Scots referendum.  And the Catalans, to date, haven't declared independence.

The king of spain must have felt really strongly. He probably canceled an elephant hunt or something.

The elephant hunter was his dad. He's a rare non-hunting Bourbon.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 03, 2017, 04:24:19 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 03, 2017, 04:16:22 PM
Quote from: The Brain on October 03, 2017, 04:12:16 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 04:07:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 03, 2017, 04:00:02 PM
The Queen would have said something similar if Scotland had declared UDI.   :P

Except she didn't say anything like this during the Scots referendum.  And the Catalans, to date, haven't declared independence.

Wasn't the Scotland referendum a real referendum?

Brexit was supposed to be an opinion poll...

And AFAIK that one didn't "undermine the rules approved legally and legitimately" either.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: mongers on October 03, 2017, 04:24:42 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 04:07:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 03, 2017, 04:00:02 PM
The Queen would have said something similar if Scotland had declared UDI.   :P

Except she didn't say anything like this during the Scots referendum.  And the Catalans, to date, haven't declared independence.

I was trying to press one of your plaid buttons, get you all conflicted, hence the  :P

:P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zanza on October 03, 2017, 04:25:43 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 03, 2017, 01:50:49 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
. With very narrow margins, separatists are putting in jeopardy their economic future.

I cannot think of many countries that haven't been willing to pay the economic price to either achieve their independence, or to keep it.
East Germany reunited for among others economic reasons.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 04:25:49 PM
From BBC:
Quote
In his first interview since the referendum, Carles Puigdemont said his government would "act at the end of this week or the beginning of next".

When asked what he would do if the Spanish government were to intervene and take control of Catalonia's government, Mr Puigdemont said it would be "an error which changes everything".

Mr Puigdemont said there was currently no contact between the government in Madrid and his devolved administration.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 04:28:10 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 04:25:49 PM
From BBC:
Quote
In his first interview since the referendum, Carles Puigdemont said his government would "act at the end of this week or the beginning of next".

When asked what he would do if the Spanish government were to intervene and take control of Catalonia's government, Mr Puigdemont said it would be "an error which changes everything".

Mr Puigdemont said there was currently no contact between the government in Madrid and his devolved administration.

I guess unilateral independence changes nothing then!  :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 03, 2017, 04:35:56 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 03:45:44 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 02:53:11 PM
From CNN:

QuoteIn a televised statement, King Felipe said the referendum's organizers had jeopardized national stability. "With their decisions, they have systematically undermined the rules approved legally and legitimately, showing an unacceptable disloyalty towards the powers of the state -- a state that represents Catalan interests," he said.

This... feels like a mistake.
I think it is in this context. The King should have tried a polite way to diffuse the situation, not assign blame to one side in public.  In private, he could have scolded the independantists, even insulted them. But in public like that, it will only give more credence to the radicals and isolate the moderates.

I hope this does not turn into a civil war, but I fear it's leading to that. :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 04:37:44 PM
You know Kings cannot speak without the advice of their Prime Ministers, right Viper?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 03, 2017, 04:37:56 PM
Quote from: Zanza on October 03, 2017, 04:25:43 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 03, 2017, 01:50:49 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
. With very narrow margins, separatists are putting in jeopardy their economic future.

I cannot think of many countries that haven't been willing to pay the economic price to either achieve their independence, or to keep it.
East Germany reunited for among others economic reasons.
they didn't exactly declare independance of their own volition...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 03, 2017, 04:41:15 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 04:37:44 PM
You know Kings cannot speak without the advice of their Prime Ministers, right Viper?
No, I don't.  I don't know the Spanish political system, I only studied the French, American and German political system in school.  Not that I remember that much of the German system anyway. 
But he could have refused to speak or advised the PM on doing something else.

And I'm not taking any sides eithers.  All I hope for is a peaceful resolution of the current troubles, without blood.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 04:42:54 PM
The King's speeches are all monitored by the government. He won't say anything that he doesn't want to say, but he also won't say anything that the government doesn't want him to say.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 03, 2017, 04:47:20 PM
How bad is reaction to this from the regular Spanish?
Are the Spanish version of the brexiters waving their sabres and baying for blood? How bad could it get if the Catalans decide to go all out for UDI?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: alfred russel on October 03, 2017, 04:47:28 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 04:37:44 PM
You know Kings cannot speak without the advice of their Prime Ministers, right Viper?

Is this a biological defect resulting from all the inbreeding?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 04:47:54 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 04:37:44 PM
You know Kings cannot speak without the advice of their Prime Ministers, right Viper?

Usually Kings can speak quite freely to Prime Ministers behind the scenes however.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: alfred russel on October 03, 2017, 04:48:47 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 04:23:34 PM

The elephant hunter was his dad. He's a rare non-hunting Bourbon.

Or so he wants you to think. Seems he is interested in hunting Catalans.  :frog:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 03, 2017, 05:26:10 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 03, 2017, 04:47:54 PM
Usually Kings can speak quite freely to Prime Ministers behind the scenes however.

Yep, and he would be pretty stupid to side with the Catalans' sedition here.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: mongers on October 03, 2017, 05:40:50 PM
I'm more than a bit reminded of some of the forces at work within Northern Ireland during 68-69. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 03, 2017, 06:02:52 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 03, 2017, 04:47:20 PM
How bad is reaction to this from the regular Spanish?
Are the Spanish version of the brexiters waving their sabres and baying for blood? How bad could it get if the Catalans decide to go all out for UDI?

A few are, but most of us would rather just see Puigdemont & Co imprisoned and the Mossos and TV3 dissolved.

Regarding the economic situation, the biggest Catalonian bank (Caixabank) has swiftly reacted to their employees taking Barcelona's main artery yesterday by hinting to abandon ship if UDI is called. Sabadell (the second largest bank) followed suit not long after that. Both must be hemorrhaging deposits.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 06:05:07 PM
Myself I just deposited part of my savings in Matressbank. Will probably move the rest to ING, which should be safe from a bank run.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 03, 2017, 06:24:12 PM
Multinational corps would be smart to move their shit out of Catalonia regardless of what happened now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 03, 2017, 06:25:04 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 03, 2017, 06:05:07 PM
Myself I just deposited part of my savings in Matressbank. Will probably move the rest to ING, which should be safe from a bank run.

I hope you at least made that deposit in bills, otherwise it might get uncomfortable.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 02:20:15 AM
The Spanish National Audience (a high court that deals with certain crimes against the state, terrorism, and drug cartels), has leveled sedition charges against the commander of the Catalan regional police and the leaders of the two main separatist organizations.

My "we're all doomed"-meter has jumped another notch.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 02:27:55 AM
The only good thing of this whole clusterfuck is that it's made me aware of Heather Nauert. She can intervene in Catalan affairs (mine in particular) any time she wants.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 11:19:05 AM
Bank run! The largest Catalan bank (Caixabank), in turn the 3rd largest Spanish bank, has lost the equivalent of 33% of 2017's new deposits in the last 30 days. Both them and BancSabadell (second largest Catalan bank, and 4th largest Spanish bank) are cratering in the stock market.

The Spanish finance minister has come out and said that "Catalans don't need to fear for their savings" which to me means I should.  :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 04, 2017, 11:35:59 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 11:19:05 AM
Bank run! The largest Catalan bank (Caixabank), in turn the 3rd largest Spanish bank, has lost the equivalent of 33% of 2017's new deposits in the last 30 days. Both them and BancSabadell (second largest Catalan bank, and 4th largest Spanish bank) are cratering in the stock market.

The Spanish finance minister has come out and said that "Catalans don't need to fear for their savings" which to me means I should.  :lol:

So how big are Mataláixa bank deposits among independentists and/or nationalists?

:blush:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 04, 2017, 12:02:56 PM
Another 3% drop in the overall market.  Get your shit straight Spaniards.  :glare:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 04, 2017, 01:44:52 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on October 04, 2017, 11:35:59 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 11:19:05 AM
Bank run! The largest Catalan bank (Caixabank), in turn the 3rd largest Spanish bank, has lost the equivalent of 33% of 2017's new deposits in the last 30 days. Both them and BancSabadell (second largest Catalan bank, and 4th largest Spanish bank) are cratering in the stock market.

The Spanish finance minister has come out and said that "Catalans don't need to fear for their savings" which to me means I should.  :lol:

So how big are Mataláixa bank deposits among independentists and/or nationalists?

:blush:

They are by far the biggest players in the region. However, they also have (fortunately for them) interests outside Catalonia, acquired after the banking debacle a while back.

They have three problems here: first political. If they do nothing, they lose business from the rest of Spain (there are calls for boicots of Catalonian firms). If they do move to Madrid, they might lose business from Catalonians (their core market).
Second: liquidity. Nobody wants to have funds in a bank that might collapse at any second now. And if it still happens to be located at an independent Barcelona when that happens they would fall out of the Spanish deposit guarantee scheme.
Third: exposure. Since a Catalonian UDI is seen as an economic disaster, those firms more exposed to business in Catalonia are liable to suffer.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 04, 2017, 02:42:55 PM
Celed, can you give us the highlights of Puigdemont's speech? All I got was a call to dialogue.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 02:54:54 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 04, 2017, 01:44:52 PM
They have three problems here: first political. If they do nothing, they lose business from the rest of Spain (there are calls for boicots of Catalonian firms). If they do move to Madrid, they might lose business from Catalonians (their core market).

Is the rest of Spain trying to drive Catalans away?  The message that should be sent out now is how much TROS (the Rest of Spain) loves Catalonia.  Hell set up a massive counter-protest in Barcelona with people from all over Spain waving Spanish AND Catalan flags.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 02:58:41 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 04, 2017, 02:42:55 PM
Celed, can you give us the highlights of Puigdemont's speech? All I got was a call to dialogue.

We're peaceful, we're being misrepresented to the public opinion outside of Catalonia, the king is nasty, we want negotiation but we intend to implement the results of the referendum.

There's two ways of seeing it:

1) He's just posturing since Madrid will reject any negotiation that doesn't involve explicit renounciation of independence (which he won't give).

or

2) He's shitting bricks after the EU gave him the cold shoulder and the king pretty much promised no quarter, and wants a way to gain time and put off the UDI.

I'm leaning for 1), but no doubt there are quite a few in the separatist side that are at 2)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 03:02:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 02:54:54 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 04, 2017, 01:44:52 PM
They have three problems here: first political. If they do nothing, they lose business from the rest of Spain (there are calls for boicots of Catalonian firms). If they do move to Madrid, they might lose business from Catalonians (their core market).

Is the rest of Spain trying to drive Catalans away?  The message that should be sent out now is how much TROS (the Rest of Spain) loves Catalonia.  Hell set up a massive counter-protest in Barcelona with people from all over Spain waving Spanish AND Catalan flags.

They've been trying that and it hasn't done much. When love fails, self-interest triumphs.

There's an unionist demo scheduled this sunday, one day before the UDI. These demos have always bombed (even though roughly half the population votes for different shades of unionism), we'll see what happens now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 04, 2017, 03:09:04 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 02:54:54 PM
Is the rest of Spain trying to drive Catalans away?  The message that should be sent out now is how much TROS (the Rest of Spain) loves Catalonia.  Hell set up a massive counter-protest in Barcelona with people from all over Spain waving Spanish AND Catalan flags.

Why? The referendum is done, there is nothing left for the people to decide, and the Catalan government already said to Madrid and the King to go f--- themselves. They are in a state of apprehended rebellion and the UDI is almost set in motion. :huh:

What purpose would this serve? Those million-or-so in the streets of Barcelona have already decided they want to separate AND they control the streets.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 03:12:58 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 04, 2017, 03:09:04 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 02:54:54 PM
Is the rest of Spain trying to drive Catalans away?  The message that should be sent out now is how much TROS (the Rest of Spain) loves Catalonia.  Hell set up a massive counter-protest in Barcelona with people from all over Spain waving Spanish AND Catalan flags.

Why? The Referendum is done and the Catalan government already said to Madrid and the King to go f--- themselves. They are in a state of apprehended rebellion and the UDI is almost set in motion. :huh:

What purpose would this serve? Those millions in the streets of Barcelona have already decided they want to separate AND they control the streets.

If the Catalans go the route of a UDI the matter is in part now up to world opinion.  If the Catalans can demonstrate to the world they have a distinct community that is united in its desire to be independent, then that helps their cause.  If instead the world sees that Catalan public opinion is divided on the issue, that hurts their cause.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 04, 2017, 03:14:39 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 02:58:41 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 04, 2017, 02:42:55 PM
Celed, can you give us the highlights of Puigdemont's speech? All I got was a call to dialogue.

We're peaceful, we're being misrepresented to the public opinion outside of Catalonia, the king is nasty, we want negotiation but we intend to implement the results of the referendum.

There's two ways of seeing it:

1) He's just posturing since Madrid will reject any negotiation that doesn't involve explicit renounciation of independence (which he won't give).

or

2) He's shitting bricks after the EU gave him the cold shoulder and the king pretty much promised no quarter, and wants a way to gain time and put off the UDI.

I'm leaning for 1), but no doubt there are quite a few in the separatist side that are at 2)

Since the Audiencia Nacional has already decreed and delivered an order of arrest for all members of the Catalan government and the head of the Mossos, what is the reason stopping Madrid for going in already to arrest them?

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 03:15:31 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 03:12:58 PM
If the Catalans go the route of a UDI the matter is in part now up to world opinion.  If the Catalans can demonstrate to the world they have a distinct community that is united in its desire to be independent, then that helps their cause.  If instead the world sees that Catalan public opinion is divided on the issue, that hurts their cause.

They only need to look at the last elections to see that.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 03:17:43 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 04, 2017, 03:14:39 PM
Since the Audiencia Nacional has already decreed and delivered an order of arrest for all members of the Catalan government and the head of the Mossos, what is the reason stopping Madrid for going in already to arrest them?

That's... not what's happened? There's not an outstanding arrest order for anybody, they are just under investigation and will be summoned by the Audiencia Nacional. *If* they refuse to cooperate, then the arrest warrant goes out.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 04, 2017, 03:18:31 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 03:12:58 PM
If the Catalans go the route of a UDI the matter is in part now up to world opinion.  If the Catalans can demonstrate to the world they have a distinct community that is united in its desire to be independent, then that helps their cause.  If instead the world sees that Catalan public opinion is divided on the issue, that hurts their cause.

They are divided - all polls show that the majority of Catalans do not want independence. That they stay home and stay silent because they fear repercussions does not mean they are not there.

All they have demonstrated is that a minority has hijacked both due processes, constitutional law, and international law for their own, minority-held objective of going for independence, come hell and high water. They are literally playing with the lives of Catalans in face of being obviously on the wrong side of both law and customs.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 04, 2017, 03:19:21 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 03:17:43 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 04, 2017, 03:14:39 PM
Since the Audiencia Nacional has already decreed and delivered an order of arrest for all members of the Catalan government and the head of the Mossos, what is the reason stopping Madrid for going in already to arrest them?

That's... not what's happened? There's not an outstanding arrest order for anybody, they are just under investigation and will be summoned by the Audiencia Nacional. *If* they refuse to cooperate, then the arrest warrant goes out.

From your own quote:

QuoteThe Spanish National Audience (a high court that deals with certain crimes against the state, terrorism, and drug cartels), has leveled sedition charges against the commander of the Catalan regional police and the leaders of the two main separatist organizations.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 03:22:00 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 04, 2017, 03:18:31 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 03:12:58 PM
If the Catalans go the route of a UDI the matter is in part now up to world opinion.  If the Catalans can demonstrate to the world they have a distinct community that is united in its desire to be independent, then that helps their cause.  If instead the world sees that Catalan public opinion is divided on the issue, that hurts their cause.

They are divided - all polls show that the majority of Catalans do not want independence. That they stay home and stay silent because they fear repercussions does not mean they are not there.

All they have demonstrated is that a minority has hijacked both due processes, constitutional law, and international law for their own, minority-held objective of going for independence, come hell and high water. They are literally playing with the lives of Catalans in face of being obviously on the wrong side of both law and customs.

But they also just held a referendum with 90% voting for independence.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 03:24:57 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 04, 2017, 03:19:21 PM
From your own quote:

QuoteThe Spanish National Audience (a high court that deals with certain crimes against the state, terrorism, and drug cartels), has leveled sedition charges against the commander of the Catalan regional police and the leaders of the two main separatist organizations.

Yeah, and they have been summoned to the Audiencia for their depositions. There won't be any arrests at this stage unless they refuse to cooperate with justice. Arresting people is relatively exceptional in the Spanish justice system, unless the accused is expected to make a run for it. That won't happen with these people.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 03:26:55 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 03:22:00 PM
But they also just held a referendum with 90% voting for independence.

Which was a total sham. There's a bunch of precincts that had over 100% turnout  :lol:

Actual elections show separatist parties topping at 48%. Which is a fucking lot and which has to be addressed somehow, but not to the point of imposing illegal independence on the rest of us.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 04, 2017, 03:31:37 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 03:22:00 PM

But they also just held a referendum with 90% voting for independence.

A sham referendum that was boycotted by 60% of the electorate. That proves nothing. The only thing that would prove that point would be to call for elections in Catalonia and get a truly massive win.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 04, 2017, 04:14:34 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 03:26:55 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 03:22:00 PM
But they also just held a referendum with 90% voting for independence.

Which was a total sham. There's a bunch of precincts that had over 100% turnout  :lol:

Actual elections show separatist parties topping at 48%. Which is a fucking lot and which has to be addressed somehow, but not to the point of imposing illegal independence on the rest of us.
In your opinion, assuming the Spanish government did not send in the police, the army, called Catalan politicians traitors and secessionists, would the result have been that high?  Could the seperatist parties even muster 48% of the vote?

Honest question.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 04:41:43 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 04, 2017, 04:14:34 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 04, 2017, 03:26:55 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 04, 2017, 03:22:00 PM
But they also just held a referendum with 90% voting for independence.

Which was a total sham. There's a bunch of precincts that had over 100% turnout  :lol:

Actual elections show separatist parties topping at 48%. Which is a fucking lot and which has to be addressed somehow, but not to the point of imposing illegal independence on the rest of us.
In your opinion, assuming the Spanish government did not send in the police, the army, called Catalan politicians traitors and secessionists, would the result have been that high?  Could the seperatist parties even muster 48% of the vote?

They achieved that without nothing of the above happening. I'm talking about the 2012 and 2015 elections. They have a consistent ceiling of 1,800,000-1,900,000 votes.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 04:19:35 AM
Looks like BancSabadell is going to up sticks. They have a board meeting this afternoon with the relocation on the table.

Maybe the solution to our conflict is becoming poor enough so that we remove the whole "wealthy people nationalism" aspect.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 05, 2017, 05:01:36 AM
I don't know the Spanish system. I guess it is more democratic so this rule applies less there.... But in the UK it's a big mistake to read support for nationalist parties at elections  as support for independence (or the opposite).

My company is doubling down on its Barcelona operations. No sign of a course change; a big move of jobs there has been going on for a while.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 05:16:02 AM
When independence becomes the #1 issue in regional politics, I'd say it's not a big mistake to read it that way. In 2015 the nationalist parties (all of them) campaigned on a platform of an UDI if they reached 50%+1 of the vote. They got 48%.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 05, 2017, 08:45:33 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/05/spanish-pm-mariano-rajoy-warns-of-greater-harm-from-catalonia-independence-plans

QuoteSpain suspends Catalan parliament session in attempt to block independence

Spain's constitutional court has suspended a Catalan parliament session planned for Monday in an attempt to block an expected declaration of independence by the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 05, 2017, 09:05:22 AM
Any truth to this? :lol:

(https://i.imgur.com/ke83xTb_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 05, 2017, 09:17:29 AM
Quote from: garbon on October 05, 2017, 08:45:33 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/05/spanish-pm-mariano-rajoy-warns-of-greater-harm-from-catalonia-independence-plans

QuoteSpain suspends Catalan parliament session in attempt to block independence

Spain's constitutional court has suspended a Catalan parliament session planned for Monday in an attempt to block an expected declaration of independence by the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont.

From the same article:

QuoteSpeaking ahead of Thursday's court decision, the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, warned that the situation could escalate further if the Catalan government carried on the path of a unilateral declaration.

"Is there a solution? Yes, there is," Rajoy told the Spanish news agency Efe. "And the best one would be a return to legality and the swiftest possible confirmation that there won't be a unilateral independence declaration, because that way still greater harm could be avoided."
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 10:05:06 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 05, 2017, 09:05:22 AM
Any truth to this? :lol:

(https://i.imgur.com/ke83xTb_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)

Not that I know. Tractors were used to close off roads this tuesday during the strike, but haven't heard any story of police being "trapped".

This is not the US, but fucking around with the police is hardly a good idea around here either.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on October 05, 2017, 11:08:50 AM
I know it's a tense situation and all, but that's kinda funny whether or not it's true.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 11:09:51 AM
Quote from: derspiess on October 05, 2017, 11:08:50 AM
I know it's a tense situation and all, but that's kinda funny whether or not it's true.

I think that is the point. A good story will spread regardless of whether or not it is true and will help bolster separatist morale.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 11:33:00 AM
Pretty sure that's a Russian bot thing though. I can't see why Catalan separatists would spread memes in English. Plus my separatist friends constantly flood my social media timelines with that stuff (god, are they annoying), and it's the first time I see that one.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 05, 2017, 11:37:33 AM
Any nasty arguments with your separatist buddies Celery?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 05, 2017, 11:55:34 AM
Madrid has officially announced it rejected any and all calls for mediation, without the Catalan government publicly backing down first and renouncing going for UDI.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 12:17:03 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 05, 2017, 11:37:33 AM
Any nasty arguments with your separatist buddies Celery?

Yeah. Several. The atmosphere around here is comparable to Venus' at this point.

(https://i.imgur.com/razsKa6.png)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 05, 2017, 12:31:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 11:33:00 AM
Pretty sure that's a Russian bot thing though. I can't see why Catalan separatists would spread memes in English. Plus my separatist friends constantly flood my social media timelines with that stuff (god, are they annoying), and it's the first time I see that one.

They seem to be going pretty hard to get international support.
My Scottish seperatist friends are really up for Catalan independence
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on October 05, 2017, 12:34:01 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 11:33:00 AM
Pretty sure that's a Russian bot thing though. I can't see why Catalan separatists would spread memes in English.

I guess maybe the same reason they have protest signs in English.  Trying to gain international sympathy.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 12:37:39 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 11:33:00 AM
Pretty sure that's a Russian bot thing though.
that's a likely possibility.  Honestly, you can't really prevent cops for re-entering the country by blockading the road with a tractor.  They arrest the driver(s), call a towing and clear the way. Gone in 60 minutes.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 12:40:38 PM
Caixabank's board meeting tomorrow to debate relocation out of Catalonia. That's Catalonia's largest company.

See "This is fine" meme above.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 12:49:49 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 12:40:38 PM
Caixabank's board meeting tomorrow to debate relocation out of Catalonia. That's Catalonia's largest company.

See "This is fine" meme above.
https://www.ft.com/content/f09c8cb3-918d-3877-8f32-b8173ebc0fef?mhq5j=e7

I understand the move, they don't have much choice to protect their clients by legally moving the HQ out of there but still keeping the physical HQ where they are.
I'm surprised they're not already registered in Andorra...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 05, 2017, 12:50:50 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 12:17:03 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 05, 2017, 11:37:33 AM
Any nasty arguments with your separatist buddies Celery?

Yeah. Several. The atmosphere around here is comparable to Venus' at this point.

One of my Catalonian colleagues - a moderate unionist much like Celed - has had to unfriend half his contacts in Facebook and leave many of his Whatsapp groups. He's really touchy about this stuff by now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 05, 2017, 01:04:46 PM
Hey Celed - are you Catalan yourself, or are you an import from somewhere else in the country?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 05, 2017, 01:05:27 PM
My girlfriend is in a constant state of disbelief at work. All her coworkers are separatists, and they have been complaining all week about the violence, repression and how Spain treats them so poorly, how everything is so chaotic. It drives her nuts. They even said that it was worse than Venezuela (probably repeating something they heard or read in TV). That really pissed her off.  :lol:
She told them they ought to spend a week in Venezuela themselves and report later. She told them about how here halfsis got shot while demonstrating, how she couldn't even get out of the building for days the last time she was there, how everyone has lost over 15 pounds and how diphtheria and malaria are coming back thanks to food and medicine scarcity. I don't think she convinced any one of them though.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 01:06:39 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 05, 2017, 01:04:46 PM
Hey Celed - are you Catalan yourself, or are you an import from somewhere else in the country?

Catalan born and bred. All my close family are separatists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 05, 2017, 01:16:40 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 04:19:35 AM
Looks like BancSabadell is going to up sticks. They have a board meeting this afternoon with the relocation on the table.

Maybe the solution to our conflict is becoming poor enough so that we remove the whole "wealthy people nationalism" aspect.

They have approved the move to Alicante. Presumably tomorrow Caixabank will follow suit.

It seems the government is studying a decree that would allow businesses to move out of Catalonia (within Spain) without consulting with their shareholders. Apparently the Socialists will support it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 05, 2017, 02:01:31 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 05, 2017, 01:05:27 PM
My girlfriend is in a constant state of disbelief at work. All her coworkers are separatists, and they have been complaining all week about the violence, repression and how Spain treats them so poorly, how everything is so chaotic. It drives her nuts. They even said that it was worse than Venezuela (probably repeating something they heard or read in TV). That really pissed her off.  :lol:
She told them they ought to spend a week in Venezuela themselves and report later. She told them about how here halfsis got shot while demonstrating, how she couldn't even get out of the building for days the last time she was there, how everyone has lost over 15 pounds and how diphtheria and malaria are coming back thanks to food and medicine scarcity. I don't think she convinced any one of them though.

Given the circumstances, for her security, can she afford to leave Catalonia before things come to shove?

There are no guarantees that it won't degenerate fast when the bell tolls and Madrid has had enough. Right now, everyone in Catalonia must think about their personal safety first, and it seems it has already started to put brother against brother.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 02:04:14 PM
Fortunately Catalonians are not as heavily armed as Texas secessionists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 05, 2017, 02:08:43 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 05, 2017, 02:01:31 PM
Given the circumstances, for her security, can she afford to leave Catalonia before things come to shove?

There are no guarantees that things won't get to a head fast when the bell tolls and Madrid has had enough. Right now, everyone in Catalonia must think about their personal safety first, and it seems it has already started to put brother against brother.

Things are not that bad. And I can't see violence becoming the norm. Perhaps between protesters and police forces when the instigators of the coup are being arrested.

She can't leave Catalonia anyway. She is in Spain on a highly qualified employee visa (she's an engineer). That means her visa is revoked if she leaves the company. However said company is a big multinational that would likely shift operations to another location in case of UDI (probably Madrid or Seville).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2017, 02:24:24 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 02:04:14 PM
Fortunately Catalonians are not as heavily armed as Texas secessionists.

I'll take your word, as I don't know any.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 02:30:49 PM
This is western Europe, the lack of firearms per square meter compared to the US will ensure things don't go full retard re: violence.

Financially though, I'm pretty worried.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 05, 2017, 02:48:29 PM
My Spanish ETF did bounce back today.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 02:55:02 PM
Stocks rallied after several high profile Catalan companies announced plans to relocate.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 03:16:39 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 01:06:39 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 05, 2017, 01:04:46 PM
Hey Celed - are you Catalan yourself, or are you an import from somewhere else in the country?

Catalan born and bred. All my close family are separatists.
Barcelona or country side?  You indicated a fracture between the city and the countryside, earlier, I am curious...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 03:18:17 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2017, 02:24:24 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 02:04:14 PM
Fortunately Catalonians are not as heavily armed as Texas secessionists.

I'll take your word, as I don't know any.
Catolonians or heavily armed Texans?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 03:26:07 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2017, 02:24:24 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 02:04:14 PM
Fortunately Catalonians are not as heavily armed as Texas secessionists.

I'll take your word, as I don't know any.

Fascinating. Tell me more about these people you don't know.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2017, 03:28:11 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 03:18:17 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2017, 02:24:24 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 02:04:14 PM
Fortunately Catalonians are not as heavily armed as Texas secessionists.

I'll take your word, as I don't know any.
Catolonians or heavily armed Texans?

Texas secessionists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 03:28:29 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 03:16:39 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 01:06:39 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 05, 2017, 01:04:46 PM
Hey Celed - are you Catalan yourself, or are you an import from somewhere else in the country?

Catalan born and bred. All my close family are separatists.
Barcelona or country side?  You indicated a fracture between the city and the countryside, earlier, I am curious...

Barcelona.

Separatism, unsurprisingly, is larger among "ethnic Catalans" (for lack of a better word), which are a larger % of the population in the countryside.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 03:40:11 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2017, 03:28:11 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 03:18:17 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2017, 02:24:24 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 02:04:14 PM
Fortunately Catalonians are not as heavily armed as Texas secessionists.

I'll take your word, as I don't know any.
Catolonians or heavily armed Texans?

Texas secessionists.

They are about 20% of the voters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements#Opinion_polling
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 05, 2017, 03:40:35 PM
What is the basic beef that Catalans have anyway?

What do they imagine a world with a separate Catalan country looks like, and how is it better for them?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 05, 2017, 03:45:46 PM
They imagine themselves becoming a new Norway or Switzerland, basically.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2017, 03:52:10 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 03:40:11 PM
They are about 20% of the voters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements#Opinion_polling

Ok. I don't know any vocal ones.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 03:54:24 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 05, 2017, 03:45:46 PM
They imagine themselves becoming a new Norway or Switzerland, basically.

Why do people want to become like Switzerland? It is not exactly a pleasant place.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 03:56:47 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 05, 2017, 03:40:35 PM
What is the basic beef that Catalans have anyway?

What do they imagine a world with a separate Catalan country looks like, and how is it better for them?

A friend of mine is a hardcore socialist, and imagines it as a worker's paradise.

Another friend is an an-cap, and imagines it as Randesque utopia (well, dystopia).

Another is a fiscal conservative, and imagines it as an ultra-efficient, low-tax, business friendly nation.

Another is an anarchist, and sees it as a Bakunian collection of small collectivized communities.

That's the power of the Catalan Republic. Since it doesn't exist, it can be everything. And that's why if we ever become independent, it would be a monumental clusterfuck.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 04:03:32 PM
Wow you have quite an eclectic group of friends.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 05, 2017, 04:05:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 03:54:24 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 05, 2017, 03:45:46 PM
They imagine themselves becoming a new Norway or Switzerland, basically.

Why do people want to become like Switzerland? It is not exactly a pleasant place.

Swiss chocolate and cheese. Plus shopping in France becomes very cheap.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 04:06:47 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 03:56:47 PM
That's the power of the Catalan Republic. Since it doesn't exist, it can be everything.
ohh, I like that one!
Be everything you can be! Vote Yes!

I'll keep it in mind, if I ever re-become sovereignist.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 04:08:17 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 04:03:32 PM
Wow you have quite an eclectic group of friends.
outside the US, people tend to mix and diversify.
I do have one uber leftist friend on my FB.   :sleep:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 04:09:13 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2017, 04:03:32 PM
Wow you have quite an eclectic group of friends.

They are actually real, I didn't make them up for the sake of the argument  :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 05, 2017, 04:11:54 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 05, 2017, 04:08:17 PM
outside the US, people tend to mix and diversify.

:yawn:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 05, 2017, 04:15:29 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 03:56:47 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 05, 2017, 03:40:35 PM
What is the basic beef that Catalans have anyway?

What do they imagine a world with a separate Catalan country looks like, and how is it better for them?

A friend of mine is a hardcore socialist, and imagines it as a worker's paradise.

Another friend is an an-cap, and imagines it as Randesque utopia (well, dystopia).

Another is a fiscal conservative, and imagines it as an ultra-efficient, low-tax, business friendly nation.

Another is an anarchist, and sees it as a Bakunian collection of small collectivized communities.

That's the power of the Catalan Republic. Since it doesn't exist, it can be everything. And that's why if we ever become independent, it would be a monumental clusterfuck.

In reality of course, it would be a Euro-style mixed economy and parliamentary democracy with power alternating back and forth between center left and center right parties.  Like, you know, Spain.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 05, 2017, 04:22:57 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 03:56:47 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 05, 2017, 03:40:35 PM
What is the basic beef that Catalans have anyway?

What do they imagine a world with a separate Catalan country looks like, and how is it better for them?

A friend of mine is a hardcore socialist, and imagines it as a worker's paradise.

Another friend is an an-cap, and imagines it as Randesque utopia (well, dystopia).

Another is a fiscal conservative, and imagines it as an ultra-efficient, low-tax, business friendly nation.

Another is an anarchist, and sees it as a Bakunian collection of small collectivized communities.

That's the power of the Catalan Republic. Since it doesn't exist, it can be everything. And that's why if we ever become independent, it would be a monumental clusterfuck.

it's ok, after each faction can separate into their own country. then everyone will be happy.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 04:25:58 PM
Apparently some large Catalan companies are yelling at Madrid's government ear in panic and tomorrow they'll issue a decree simplifying the process of relocating a company's HQ within Spain.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 05, 2017, 04:29:08 PM
will wealth leaving change peoples mind, or will it solidify the us vs them thing since these companies are "traitors"? Is there an intrinsic reason companies settle in Catalonia? easier access to france?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 05, 2017, 04:34:09 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 05, 2017, 03:40:35 PM
What is the basic beef that Catalans have anyway?

What do they imagine a world with a separate Catalan country looks like, and how is it better for them?

Well there was a long history of repression of the Catalan language.  I mean that ended with Franco, but people can have long memories for such things...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 04:40:35 PM
Quote from: HVC on October 05, 2017, 04:29:08 PM
will wealth leaving change peoples mind, or will it solidify the us vs them thing since these companies are "traitors"? Is there an intrinsic reason companies settle in Catalonia? easier access to france?

The hardcore separatists are already drumming up the "we don't need them more than they need us" tune. But the moderates are quaking in their boots. The Conseller of Enterprise (the regional equivalent of a Minister), which is the most moderate member in the Catalan government, has already said they shouldn't go forward with the UDI. The radicals are firmly in the driver's seat though. Will see if there's some kind of internal revolt before Monday. Honestly, an UDI would be a total disaster.

25% of Spain's exports go through Catalonia. Besides strategic position, there's a large network of suppliers and logistics for industries like automotive and others, and also good access to capital. Until now at least.  :lol:

Iormlund probably knows best though. Since he seems to be working for the WV/Seat plant in Catalonia now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 05, 2017, 04:51:21 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 04:40:35 PM
25% of Spain's exports go through Catalonia. Besides strategic position, there's a large network of suppliers and logistics for industries like automotive and others, and also good access to capital. Until now at least.  :lol:

Since work on the Basque Y high-speed network is way behind schedule, the only train line without break of gauge goes through Catalonia, though it's mostly for passenger services I believe, since once in Spain (pun intended) the conventional network is still broad gauge, unlike the high-speed network.

Somport and Irun could get really clogged again...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 05, 2017, 06:11:41 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 05, 2017, 04:34:09 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 05, 2017, 03:40:35 PM
What is the basic beef that Catalans have anyway?

What do they imagine a world with a separate Catalan country looks like, and how is it better for them?

Well there was a long history of repression of the Catalan language.  I mean that ended with Franco, but people can have long memories for such things...

With Franco there was repression for everyone, it's not like everything was fine and dandy in other places.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 06, 2017, 12:48:02 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on October 05, 2017, 04:51:21 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 04:40:35 PM
25% of Spain's exports go through Catalonia. Besides strategic position, there's a large network of suppliers and logistics for industries like automotive and others, and also good access to capital. Until now at least.  :lol:

Since work on the Basque Y high-speed network is way behind schedule, the only train line without break of gauge goes through Catalonia, though it's mostly for passenger services I believe, since once in Spain (pun intended) the conventional network is still broad gauge, unlike the high-speed network.

Somport and Irun could get really clogged again...

I suspect one of the consequences of this mess will be to reopen the Canfranc tunnel project. It would be a pretty expensive undertaking, but it would allow Spain to have a link to France bypassing both Catalonia and the Basque Country.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 12:55:16 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 06, 2017, 12:48:02 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on October 05, 2017, 04:51:21 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 05, 2017, 04:40:35 PM
25% of Spain's exports go through Catalonia. Besides strategic position, there's a large network of suppliers and logistics for industries like automotive and others, and also good access to capital. Until now at least.  :lol:

Since work on the Basque Y high-speed network is way behind schedule, the only train line without break of gauge goes through Catalonia, though it's mostly for passenger services I believe, since once in Spain (pun intended) the conventional network is still broad gauge, unlike the high-speed network.

Somport and Irun could get really clogged again...

I suspect one of the consequences of this mess will be to reopen the Canfranc tunnel project. It would be a pretty expensive undertaking, but it would allow Spain to have a link to France bypassing both Catalonia and the Basque Country.

That sounds a bit bleak, doesn't it?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 06, 2017, 01:10:54 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 12:55:16 AM
That sounds a bit bleak, doesn't it?

You can think of it as taking one big card off the separatists' hand. Zaragoza is already the nexus between the Med (Catalonia & Valencia), the Basque Country and Madrid. This would open up France as well.


[edit] Also, it might encourage Seat to shift production away from Catalonia instead of just letting the brand die. If I were them I'd start with the Audi A1, which is low volume and launches next year. That would send a powerful message for a relatively low cost.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 06, 2017, 01:55:12 AM
First individuals charged with sedition will appear in front of the judge today. There's a chance that the prosecutor might ask for preventive detention of the two leaders of the two largest separatist NGOs - that would set the streets on fire. Hopefully only figuratively.  :(

EDIT: They have all been released with charges.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 06, 2017, 02:44:12 AM
Spanish Spec Ops deployed in key Catalan infrastructures (like the Barcelona airport) to prevent possible takeover after an UDI (yesterday a far-left separatist leader was babbling about how to "secure" them after declaring independence).

God, this is like a really stupid Tom Clancy novel now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 06, 2017, 06:49:18 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/06/catalan-government-press-ahead-referendum-debate

QuoteThe Catalan government will defy the Spanish constitutional court by going ahead with a parliamentary debate to discuss Sunday's referendum result and potentially make a unilateral declaration of independence, the region's foreign minister has said.

On Thursday the court upheld a challenge by Catalonia's Socialist party – which opposes secession from Spain – ruling that allowing the Catalan parliament to meet on Monday would violate the rights of the party's MPs.

The court warned that any session carried out in defiance of its ban would be "null", and added that the parliament's leaders could face criminal action if they ignored the court order.

But Catalonia's foreign affairs minister, Raül Romeva, insisted the debate would go ahead regardless of the court's decision.

"We will keep going," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "I think it's important that we start to understand this is about politics; this is not about legality. There is nothing illegal about voting."

Asked directly if the session would take place on Monday, he replied: "Parliament will discuss; parliament will meet. It will be a debate and this is important."
...

:hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 07:01:31 AM
It's not illegal if you want to do it!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 06, 2017, 07:13:21 AM
Ahh!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 06, 2017, 09:48:08 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 06, 2017, 02:44:12 AM
Spanish Spec Ops deployed in key Catalan infrastructures (like the Barcelona airport) to prevent possible takeover after an UDI (yesterday a far-left separatist leader was babbling about how to "secure" them after declaring independence).

God, this is like a really stupid Tom Clancy novel now.

The next Just Cause to be set in Spain?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 06, 2017, 09:49:56 AM
Energy giant Gas Natural Fenosa (largest company in the region) also approved a move out of Catalonia, to Madrid.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 10:00:15 AM
Its difficult isn't it?

What kind of secondary status is worth economic ruin to get rid of?

I mean, what is pretty obvious for me, is that the average Spaniard must have a very low opinion of Catalans. The motivation for that brutality from the police must be coming from somewhere.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 06, 2017, 10:05:08 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 10:00:15 AM
The motivation for that brutality from the police must be coming from somewhere.

:hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 06, 2017, 10:06:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 10:00:15 AM
Its difficult isn't it?

What kind of secondary status is worth economic ruin to get rid of?

I mean, what is pretty obvious for me, is that the average Spaniard must have a very low opinion of Catalans. The motivation for that brutality from the police must be coming from somewhere.

If you apply this logic to Brexit I guess therefore all Europeans hate the Brits and that is why they left? The motivation for the brutality of the EU negotiators must be coming from somewhere.

I think most people just did think it through. You tend to take benefits of things for granted and can only see the downsides...until that thing goes away. Basic human nature.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Maladict on October 06, 2017, 10:34:54 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 06, 2017, 12:48:02 AM


I suspect one of the consequences of this mess will be to reopen the Canfranc tunnel project. It would be a pretty expensive undertaking, but it would allow Spain to have a link to France bypassing both Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Canfranc station  :wub:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 06, 2017, 10:49:36 AM
Quote from: garbon on October 06, 2017, 10:05:08 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 10:00:15 AM
The motivation for that brutality from the police must be coming from somewhere.

:hmm:

Daddy didn't give affection.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 10:51:58 AM
 :lol: shut up

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Pedrito on October 06, 2017, 11:04:55 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 06, 2017, 10:49:36 AM
Quote from: garbon on October 06, 2017, 10:05:08 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 10:00:15 AM
The motivation for that brutality from the police must be coming from somewhere.

:hmm:

Daddy didn't give affection.

to the fact that mommy didn't care?

L.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 06, 2017, 11:09:50 AM
Close. And the boy was something mommy wouldn't wear.  ;)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Razgovory on October 06, 2017, 11:37:41 AM
Man, I hate the future.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 06, 2017, 01:03:42 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 06, 2017, 10:00:15 AMI mean, what is pretty obvious for me, is that the average Spaniard must have a very low opinion of Catalans. The motivation for that brutality from the police must be coming from somewhere.

Nah, our police (particulary the "antidisturbios", the ones that do riot control), are very baton-and-rubber-bullet happy, and have always been. They would do the same in any other circumstance once they're unleashed. For instance, they've been cracking heads in Murcia these days because of protests about public works.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 06, 2017, 01:06:35 PM
All quiet in Wussex?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 06, 2017, 02:31:13 PM
Quote from: Maladict on October 06, 2017, 10:34:54 AM
Canfranc station  :wub:

How do you know the place? When I was a kid I spent a few hours there exploring, one a winter day much like this one:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fe03-expansion.uecdn.es%2Fassets%2Fmultimedia%2Fimagenes%2F2016%2F12%2F07%2F14811331434915.jpg&hash=ca9b6cf921b6297b1e7c7ff2e76004bedd3766c7)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 06, 2017, 02:41:51 PM
Quote from: The Brain on October 06, 2017, 01:06:35 PM
All quiet in Wussex?

:thumbsup:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Maladict on October 06, 2017, 03:23:21 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 06, 2017, 02:31:13 PM

How do you know the place? When I was a kid I spent a few hours there exploring, one a winter day much like this one:


I've only seen pictures, never been there myself. I was looking into interesting rail routes to Spain when I found it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Liep on October 08, 2017, 09:30:27 AM
Have you been out marching today, celed?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 08, 2017, 03:54:09 PM
Quote from: Liep on October 08, 2017, 09:30:27 AM
Have you been out marching today, celed?

Yes. It's been very difficult for me. I hate flags, I'd ordinarily never set foot in a rally of this kind. Never. Too many flags. But desperate times.

The division and hatred within Catalan society is reaching unbearable levels, and it's happening so fast. I'm scared.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 08:05:39 AM
All signs point to an UDI tomorrow. Then the government will suspend the Catalan autonomy. Separatist orgs are already calling to "defend our institutions". There will be clashes in the streets, won't surprise me if there's a death toll.

Here we are, feeding the Catalan people to the bonfire of the Nation, so it can shine brightly and terribly.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 09, 2017, 08:28:11 AM
 :(

Well, take it from me, sometimes the writing is on the wall that shitty times are coming, and you should make plans to get out while you can. Trust your instincts.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 09, 2017, 08:41:57 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 08:05:39 AM
All signs point to an UDI tomorrow. Then the government will suspend the Catalan autonomy. Separatist orgs are already calling to "defend our institutions". There will be clashes in the streets, won't surprise me if there's a death toll.

Here we are, feeding the Catalan people to the bonfire of the Nation, so it can shine brightly and terribly.

Oh vanity.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 09, 2017, 09:22:36 AM
Marx was right.  1936-39 was tragedy, this is farce.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 09:40:20 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 09, 2017, 08:28:11 AM
:(

Well, take it from me, sometimes the writing is on the wall that shitty times are coming, and you should make plans to get out while you can. Trust your instincts.

My friends think I'm being hysterical. Maybe I am. Anyway, I can't leave in the short term, but I'm planning to move to Madrid after the New Year, provided there's not a Trumpian wall between both countries by that time or we are in a full Mad Max scenario.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 09, 2017, 12:24:45 PM
Why would you let a non-existent wall stop you?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 09, 2017, 12:29:39 PM
Things are heating up. There was a separatist demonstration in Valencia today (Catalonian nationalists claim cores on Valencia and Balear Islands). A far right counter-protest was assembled and ...

(https://i.gyazo.com/28318db1ba5d5df05f5d0944907197af.gif)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 09, 2017, 12:36:29 PM
I've always been curious where the Balaerics, Valenica and Aragon fit into Catalan nationalism.

I remain optimistic things won't get too bad. I mean, just look at Turkey. They had a full on attempted military coup....and its mostly business as normal (which in their case means a creep towards democracy rather than what we have in Spain).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2017, 12:37:41 PM
So wait this was a demonstration to join Catalonia but then they got beaten down by Valencian nationalists?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 12:42:10 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2017, 12:37:41 PM
So wait this was a demonstration to join Catalonia but then they got beaten down by Valencian nationalists?

They got beaten by a Spanish far-right group. Valencia holds the HQ of one of the largest far right parties in Spain, "España 2000" (founded in 2002, fascists do love living in the past). And by "largest" read "almost 10,000 votes in the last Spanish general election".
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2017, 12:45:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 12:42:10 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2017, 12:37:41 PM
So wait this was a demonstration to join Catalonia but then they got beaten down by Valencian nationalists?

They got beaten by the Spanish far-right. Valencia holds the HQ of one of the largest far right parties in Spain (and by "largest" read "almost 10,000 votes in the last Spanish general election").

Oh. So there are fanatical Spanish nationalists to?

Your country is complicated.

I heard that the Valencians insist on calling their language 'Valencian' even though it is basically the same at Catalan, which sounded like a nationalist douchebag thing to do. So I figured they must have lots of those.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 09, 2017, 12:51:05 PM
France has announced it would not recognize Catalonian UDI - and that it would be excluded from the EU.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41551337
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 12:51:18 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2017, 12:45:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 12:42:10 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2017, 12:37:41 PM
So wait this was a demonstration to join Catalonia but then they got beaten down by Valencian nationalists?

They got beaten by the Spanish far-right. Valencia holds the HQ of one of the largest far right parties in Spain (and by "largest" read "almost 10,000 votes in the last Spanish general election").

Oh. So there are fanatical Spanish nationalists to?

Your country is complicated.

I heard that the Valencians insist on calling their language 'Valencian' even though it is basically the same at Catalan, which sounded like a nationalist douchebag thing to do. So I figured they must have lots of those.

Of course there are, but they are pitiful. It's ironic how separatists see fascists everywhere in a nation where the actual far-right share of the vote is the smallest of any major European nation.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 09, 2017, 12:53:39 PM
I don't really understand the logic of Catalan seperatists living in other parts of Spain to hold independence rallies there.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 09, 2017, 12:58:05 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 09, 2017, 12:53:39 PM
I don't really understand the logic of Catalan seperatists living in other parts of Spain to hold independence rallies there.

It's nationalism, logic doesn't need to be involved. In this magical world Valencia, the Balear Isles and Roselló (French province bordering Catalonia) are part of the mythical Catalonian Countries.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2017, 01:01:46 PM
Well that explains France's position.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 09, 2017, 01:26:18 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 09, 2017, 12:58:05 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 09, 2017, 12:53:39 PM
I don't really understand the logic of Catalan seperatists living in other parts of Spain to hold independence rallies there.

It's nationalism, logic doesn't need to be involved. In this magical world Valencia, the Balear Isles and Roselló (French province bordering Catalonia) are part of the mythical Catalonian Countries.

They forgot the Catalan speakers in Alghero, Sardinia! :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2017, 01:35:01 PM
if UDI happens we'll see how things go. But let's not forget that a number of EU members are themselves the result of UDI's, and not that long ago either. So in the end (again if UDI happens and if the Catalans manage to maintain that independence) pragmatism and realpolitik will take over. It'll be a massive prestige loss for the EU to get stuck with a hole the size of Catalonia inside the Union borders.

And while I know it's very popular to shit on the Catalan nationalists here it might not be uninteresting to figure out how Spain managed to lose the desire of half (if not more) of the Catalan nation to be part of Spain. How did so many become so disappointed with the idea of Post-Franco Spain that independence, and the initial hardships that brings, is preferable? What did the Spanish government(s), in other words, do wrong throughout the years to allow the idea of independence get some real traction? And what capacity does Spain have to -basically- woe all these disappointed/angry/etc Catalans back into the fold?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 09, 2017, 01:37:44 PM
The whole country was usurped from the Neolithic settlers.  It should all go to the Basques.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 09, 2017, 01:55:21 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2017, 01:35:01 PMWhat did the Spanish government(s), in other words, do wrong throughout the years to allow the idea of independence get some real traction?

Transfer control over education and regional state media to nationalists. Those that shout the loudest have been raised in the most tolerant and prosperous era of the country, while those old enough to remember actual oppression are far less radicalized.

Quote
And what capacity does Spain have to -basically- woe all these disappointed/angry/etc Catalans back into the fold?

Little to none. I can't see a good ending here.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 09, 2017, 01:59:26 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2017, 01:35:01 PM
if UDI happens we'll see how things go. But let's not forget that a number of EU members are themselves the result of UDI's, and not that long ago either. So in the end (again if UDI happens and if the Catalans manage to maintain that independence) pragmatism and realpolitik will take over. It'll be a massive prestige loss for the EU to get stuck with a hole the size of Catalonia inside the Union borders.

Realpolitik and pragmatism has taken over right now. That's why no one is coming to the aid of Catalonia, because their cause is doomed from the start.

Also, they would have the everlasting enmity from Spain if they went that route, and most probably Spain would leave the EU too.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: katmai on October 09, 2017, 02:20:48 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 09, 2017, 01:37:44 PM
The whole country was usurped from the Neolithic settlers.  It should all go to the Basques.
:thumbsup:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2017, 02:21:11 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 09, 2017, 01:37:44 PM
The whole country was usurped from the Neolithic settlers.  It should all go to the Basques.

https://youtu.be/Ia02fGpUQfU

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 09, 2017, 02:51:54 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 09, 2017, 12:51:05 PM
France has announced it would not recognize Catalonian UDI - and that it would be excluded from the EU.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41551337

So France would still consider Catalonia a part of Spain and Catalonia would be out of the EU how?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2017, 03:01:38 PM
By French brilliance of course.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Razgovory on October 09, 2017, 03:23:59 PM
The world is getting weirder and weirder.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 09, 2017, 03:34:47 PM
I heard someone (a Castillian) say that the Catalans supporting independence tended to be in the 40-60 age bracket whilst younger people tended to be more pro-Spain.
Any truth in this? As curiously counter to most such movements,
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2017, 03:36:26 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 09, 2017, 03:23:59 PM
The world is getting weirder and weirder.

Well people are listening more and more to what crazy people have to say.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 09, 2017, 03:45:47 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 09, 2017, 03:34:47 PM
I heard someone (a Castillian) say that the Catalans supporting independence tended to be in the 40-60 age bracket whilst younger people tended to be more pro-Spain.
Any truth in this? As curiously counter to most such movements,

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.joserodriguez.info%2Fbloc%2Fwp-content%2Fthemes%2Fmimbo2.2%2Fimages%2F%2FCEO-independencia.jpg&hash=f2b4e6cdaef09c6486e70cfe81474b5c1c373b04)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 09, 2017, 03:48:37 PM
What the he'll did you guys do in 2010.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 09, 2017, 03:52:38 PM
Housing bubble collapse (http://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,4552.0.html).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 09, 2017, 03:53:45 PM
QuoteFont: Elaboració pròpia

Interesting to come up with one's own source.  :D
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 09, 2017, 03:54:03 PM
Quote from: HVC on October 09, 2017, 03:48:37 PM
What the he'll did you guys do in 2010.

gut the autonomy statute that was agreed in 2006 between Madrid and Barcelona, and accepted via referendum. Basically having the diplomatic equivalent of taking a shit in your dinner.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 09, 2017, 03:55:34 PM
So he spoke from his arse. Interesting they generally follow the same pattern as each other.

Isn't there a housing bubble again in Barcelona? Air BnB related in part.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 04:09:54 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 09, 2017, 03:34:47 PM
I heard someone (a Castillian) say that the Catalans supporting independence tended to be in the 40-60 age bracket whilst younger people tended to be more pro-Spain.
Any truth in this? As curiously counter to most such movements,

Older people tend to be pro-unity, younger people pro-independence. But the margins are close, really, age isn't *the* vector. Language is much more important, so is wealth (well-off Catalan speakers are the most in favor of separation, go figures).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 04:11:07 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 09, 2017, 03:55:34 PM
So he spoke from his arse. Interesting they generally follow the same pattern as each other.

Isn't there a housing bubble again in Barcelona? Air BnB related in part.

With enough economic chaos and street fights, maybe I'll be able to afford rent in BCN again!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 09, 2017, 04:22:17 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 09, 2017, 04:11:07 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 09, 2017, 03:55:34 PM
So he spoke from his arse. Interesting they generally follow the same pattern as each other.

Isn't there a housing bubble again in Barcelona? Air BnB related in part.

With enough economic chaos and street fights, maybe I'll be able to afford rent in BCN again!

I'm not sure you want to. Had to enjoy the neighbors' reaggeton until 4 AM last Saturday.  :bleeding:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 09, 2017, 04:32:05 PM
From OT Forum:

QuoteSo, some quotes came out from one of the documents the police got from one of the members of the Catalan government when the judge ordered a raid.

Snippets:

    The prepared actions that led to "a democratic conflict of large citizen support, oriented to generate economic and political instability that forces the State to either accept a separation negotiation or a forced referendum"
    "The political and police heads of the Mossos (Catalan Police) are completely involved in this separatist process"
    "At the moment when there is a clear citizen determination to support and get implocated actively and with international complicity, we need to start un a conservative manner, progressively increaseing conflictivity depending on the State's response, under the leadership and coordination of all implicated actors and with no doubt on actions and times".
    Plans for an executive commitee and a strategic one formed by Puigdemont, Junqueras, several independentist politicians, the heads of the ANC, Omnium and the AMI, with plans to "Call for elections once it is known that there will be a new independentist parliament"
    Insistence on the need for international credibility

Also, the investigation is pointing out that the Mossos actively protected members of the Catalan Goverment from the judiciary.

https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/index.php?threads/catalan-politics.880425/page-257
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2017, 05:12:00 PM
Blade! needs to ban somebody for that.  Twice.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 09, 2017, 05:17:17 PM
OHGamer, y'all!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 09, 2017, 05:56:09 PM
Are we stuck in 2004 or what?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2017, 06:13:00 PM
You know, maybe if these Spaniards got jobs they wouldn't have time for strikes and protests.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 09, 2017, 06:18:06 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2017, 06:13:00 PM
You know, maybe if these Spaniards got jobs they wouldn't have time for strikes and protests.

Forget it, they're rolling.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 03:13:17 AM
If that leaked separatist document is real it's truly horrific. An elected government engineering civil, political and economic conflict in order to generate enough instability to get away with its political objectives. Work of the insane.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 10, 2017, 04:10:55 AM
Worked for the UK Conservatives
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Pedrito on October 10, 2017, 07:58:09 AM
The disbanding of the Mossos is a viable option, or there's the risk of an open revolt?

L.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 08:04:35 AM
Wish I knew. The whole thing hinges on how much control the Catalan government can retain once Madrid issues the order taking over.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 08:24:56 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 08:04:35 AM
Wish I knew. The whole thing hinges on how much control the Catalan government can retain once Madrid issues the order taking over.

At what hour is the extraordinary session due? Was it announced in advance, or at least feelers to the media?

Furthermore, are there any "Catalan" military cadres and units in the Spanish armed forces, or are soldiers mixed up inside units regardless of nationality? If the former is positive, are they actually based in Catalonia?

For example, here in Canada, we have the Royal 22nd Regiment. The regiment serves as the "local" infantry regiment for Quebec where it draws most of its recruits, and thus, and so is in majority numbered by Quebecois soldiers and officers (although there are Anglophones from both inside and outside as well, so it is not exclusively Quebecois). They are based locally in Valcartier, and it is sure this would have been a major "issue" should Quebec have seceded. What would Quebecois soldiers in the Forces do should the 'Yes' win was certainly a question raised during the 1995 referendum.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 08:45:59 AM
The President asked to address Parliament today at 18:00 - it is expected that it will make an announcement regarding an UDI.

However, according to the independence law they issued, an UDI has to be issued by Parliament - not the President - and so far a motion hasn't been introduced to debate it. But I don't think they are setting up huge wall-TVs outside for nothing.

There are no regional units in the Spanish army (as in made up of people hailing from the same region). There's two batallions  stationed in Catalonia, but the army would be deployed as the very last resort.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Gups on October 10, 2017, 09:05:42 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 09, 2017, 05:12:00 PM
Blade! needs to ban somebody for that.  Twice.

Unless they buy something for him from his Amazon wish list.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 09:08:04 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 08:24:56 AM
What would Quebecois soldiers in the Forces do should the 'Yes' win was certainly a question raised during the 1995 referendum.

Missed this bit. How come? Since the Quebec referendum was a lawful one, why would the army had to play any part?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Malthus on October 10, 2017, 09:32:54 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 09:08:04 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 08:24:56 AM
What would Quebecois soldiers in the Forces do should the 'Yes' win was certainly a question raised during the 1995 referendum.

Missed this bit. How come? Since the Quebec referendum was a lawful one, why would the army had to play any part?

I don't remember any debate - I assume the only issue in the event of a Yes vote would be whether they would choose to remain in the federal Canadian army, or join a new Quebec national army.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 10:21:39 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 09:08:04 AM

Missed this bit. How come? Since the Quebec referendum was a lawful one, why would the army had to play any part?

Malthus is right, but there was also a fear that the Canadian government might not recognize the Yes result if it won, since Ottawa argued that the question on the referendum was made purposefully unclear and, thus, illegitimate if not illegal. They could argue - and they did - that the Quebecois were being misled like a pied piper by the Yes campaign, and inferred they might not accept a mere majority of 50%+1.

Remember, the question in 1995 was not whether we separate or not, but on "becoming sovereign, while maintaining an economic and legal partnership with Canada." The question was long to the point of being absurd; it was basically asking to separate and remain part of Canada.

QuoteDo you agree that Québec should become sovereign, after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership, within the scope of the Bill respecting the future of Québec and of the agreement signed on 12 June 1995?

Also, there were groups like the Cree Nation and some fringe "angryphone" groups, like Robert Libman's "Equality Party", that argued in favor of partitioning Quebec during the campaign - that if Canada was divisible, so was Quebec.

We now know that the Canadian government was in a state of utter panic when the polls showed that the Yes side was trending a majority. They just expected to win by default and they became desperate when the Yes was in the lead, hence why they decided to cheat the system and use federal money to fund the "love-in" demonstration right before the vote, and use expediencies like fast-tracking grants of citizenships for new immigrants (with the expectation they would vote No).

They became so paranoid after that near-defear, that the Chrétien government invested vast sums of taxpayers' money to promote Canada at every avenue possible - and they subcontracted that to communication firms belonging to their Liberal friends, who obviously overbilled the government to pocket the money. This was the seed of the "Sponsorship Scandal" which sunk the Liberal Party of Canada for over a decade - and threatened even its very existence as a party until Justin Trudeau took the helm.

The position of their own Quebec MPs in parliament was put into jeopardy, should the Yes won. There were talks in the Opposition to put a motion of no-confidence and that the government resigns if it were the case since Jean Chrétien and a good chunk of the Cabinet and government caucus were composed of Quebecois.


Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 10:56:47 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 10:21:39 AM
We now know that the Canadian government was in a state of utter panic when the polls showed that the Yes side was trending a majority. They just expected to win by default and they became desperate when the Yes was in the lead, hence why they decided to cheat the system and use federal money to fund the "love-in" demonstration right before the vote, and use expediencies like fast-tracking grants of citizenships for new immigrants (with the expectation they would vote No).

I just have a hard time believing stuff like this. Politicians are famously super paranoid and neurotic about every vote to the point they even cheat when they have double digit leads. The idea that any of them would expect to win by default strikes me as unlikely.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 10:59:42 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 10:56:47 AM

I just have a hard time believing stuff like this. Politicians are famously super paranoid and neurotic about every vote to the point they even cheat when they have double digit leads. The idea that any of them would expect to win by default strikes me as unlikely.

Were you there? I was 15 during that campaign and remember it very well. When the Yes started to trend up, the whole thing snowballed and spiralled out of control.

Not only that, all the major players on both sides talked openly about it to biographers a few years ago. The major No players in Ottawa, Chrétien first, candidly admitted that they had no expectation that the Yes had a chance to win, until it began to actually win right after Bouchard took control of the campaign. Then, they were thrown in utter confusion and they improvised: They actually had no plan for a Yes victory.

They expected it to be 1980 all over again. And at the beginning of the campaign, they were right. Yes support was really low and the campaign was not jumping under Parizeau's leadership. While everybody recognized his status as a statemen, he was an economist, a hard-liner who made no secret that what he wanted was secession, and lacked the charisma to sell the project.

It's when Lucien Bouchard joined the campaign and took the de-facto Yes leadership that the Yes started to trend, then lead in the polls. Because they joined hands with disappointed, young federalists, represented by Mario Dumont's ADQ, and opened the door to a negociated settlement the like of what was submitted in the question.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 11:07:32 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 10:59:42 AM
Were you there? I was 15 during that campaign and remember it very well.

Well yes and no. Mostly no :P

I was in College at the time. We had a couple Quebec students come to my French class to explain the referendum to us in entry level French. I remember their faces the day after the results were announced, most funerals were more cheery.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 10, 2017, 11:15:08 AM
1 hour delay. Still in time for watching the rioting before sleep, though.


What a mess. :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 11:31:39 AM
They say he's talking with "international mediators". I guess somebody big is trying to talk him down before it's too late.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 11:36:14 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 11:31:39 AM
They say he's talking with "international mediators". I guess somebody big is trying to talk him down before it's too late.

I sure hope he is not talking with Putin or *gasp* Trump.

Rajoy has already made it clear he wouldn't deal with mediators. It's either Puidgemont backing down now, or UDI.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:00:00 PM
There's also talk from insiders that the moderates and the radicals are clashing on whether have a proper UDI or one that would be "timed" and not have an immediate effect.

Oh please please please do a GOP
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:01:15 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:00:00 PM
There's also talk from insiders that the moderates and the radicals are clashing on whether have a proper UDI or one that would be "timed" and not have an immediate effect.

LOL

Sorry celed, but what a bunch of idiots they are. They really think Rajoy would accept a "timed" UDI, now?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:02:46 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:01:15 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:00:00 PM
There's also talk from insiders that the moderates and the radicals are clashing on whether have a proper UDI or one that would be "timed" and not have an immediate effect.

LOL

Sorry celed, but what a bunch of idiots they are. They really think Rajoy would accept a "timed" UDI, now?

The whole plan is having gigantic clashes between police and crowds to force international intervention in their favor. The trick is to look like "appeasers" issuing an UDI but then freezing it "if Madrid agrees to negotiate".

EDIT: Looks like it's gonna start now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:05:16 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:02:46 PM
The whole plan is having gigantic clashes between police and crowds to force international intervention. Their trick is to look like "appeasers" issuing an UDI but then freezing it "if Madrid agrees to negotiate".

That's the whole problem. If we know their plan, the Spaniards know it too. :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:06:35 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:02:46 PM
EDIT: Looks like it's gonna start now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg92QpjRcJk

:(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:12:00 PM
For those who want to watch the end of Catalonia as we know it live:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVqpJ7m-AaA
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:15:25 PM
They are going for it. UDI. Just from the start of his speech, I can feel it.

He is purposefully making not any mention of Spain at all.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:39:50 PM
Makes an UDI but then suspends it.  :lol:

Minsky was right. This is farce. Pity that I don't find it funny.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 10, 2017, 12:40:52 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:39:50 PM
Makes an UDI but then suspends it.  :lol:

Minsky was right. This is farce. Pity that I don't find it funny.

So it was a "we're separating... sometime.. eventually" speech?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 10, 2017, 12:41:40 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:15:25 PM
They are going for it. UDI. Just from the start of his speech, I can feel it.

He is purposefully making not any mention of Spain at all.

If Madrid doesn't want to negotiate (and they haven't wanted to negotiate for years now, apparently) then what else is left?
You cannot ignore a call for change by millions without consequences.
Spain must be brought to the table talk. Show a bit of statesmanship instead of trying to channel Franco.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:42:15 PM
Quote from: HVC on October 10, 2017, 12:40:52 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:39:50 PM
Makes an UDI but then suspends it.  :lol:

Minsky was right. This is farce. Pity that I don't find it funny.

So it was a "we're separating... sometime.. eventually" speech?

Yeah. He says he accepts the mandate to declare independence but then asks Parliament to suspend it while he seeks mediation.

He's still talking, but I don't think there's going to be any major twist.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on October 10, 2017, 12:43:38 PM
Meh. Shit or get off the pot.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 10, 2017, 12:43:42 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:39:50 PM
Makes an UDI but then suspends it.  :lol:

Minsky was right. This is farce. Pity that I don't find it funny.

all of this could have been avoided if the government in Madrid weren't hell bent on not talking for years.
Frankly, maybe they should take an example in Belgium for once.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:44:35 PM
HOTT. :blush:

Unfortunately, we have lost the translation. But I gather she is shitting on Puidgemont. Leader of the Opposition?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on October 10, 2017, 12:47:34 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:12:00 PM
For those who want to watch the end of Catalonia as we know it live:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVqpJ7m-AaA

The gal speaking right now is pretty cute.

edit: aaaaand they cut the feed.  Damn it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 12:48:11 PM
Resolved, That Catalonia should be at some point in the future, and of right might be at some point, a free and independent State, that it might be in the future absolved from all allegiance to the Spanish Crown, and that all political connection between her and the State of Spain might be, and maybe at some point probably should be, totally dissolved.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 12:49:08 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 10, 2017, 12:47:34 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:12:00 PM
For those who want to watch the end of Catalonia as we know it live:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVqpJ7m-AaA

The gal speaking right now is pretty cute.

Yeah she is the leader of the unionist liberal party, she featured heavily in our Catalonia election thread.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 12:49:21 PM
I can smell the poo from here. CiU was a Christian-Democrat business-friendly party for the past 40 years. And he's managed to have every single company in the Ibex 35 stock index leave the region in less than a week.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:51:34 PM
We have lost the feed. In fact, all feeds from the Catalonian Parliament.  :huh:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:53:40 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 12:49:08 PM

Yeah she is the leader of the unionist liberal party, she featured heavily in our Catalonia election thread.

She features heavily in my dreams.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 12:54:34 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:53:40 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 12:49:08 PM

Yeah she is the leader of the unionist liberal party, she featured heavily in our Catalonia election thread.

She features heavily in my dreams.

Mine to :wub:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:56:02 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:53:40 PM

She features heavily in my dreams.

I can give you that. Even without translation, from how much passion she was showing crapping all over Puidgemont in her speech, she seems to be a feisty gal.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 10, 2017, 12:56:04 PM
Looks good. Bbc is reporting the Catalan leader has announced the independence vote is on hold and talks shall begin
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:57:03 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 10, 2017, 12:56:04 PM
Looks good. Bbc is reporting the Catalan leader has announced the independence vote is on hold and talks shall begin

Yeah, except that Madrid won't talk. They will either ignore or invoke Article 155 in the next hours or so.

It's like the separatists genuinely believe that Rajoy pulled out the King himself to threaten them directly, all for a gigantic bluff. They are all in cuckooland.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 12:59:59 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 10, 2017, 12:56:04 PM
Looks good. Bbc is reporting the Catalan leader has announced the independence vote is on hold and talks shall begin

What is there to discuss though?

I mean unless this is some kind of leverage bluff on the part of the separatists to negotiate an autonomy deal.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 10, 2017, 01:03:10 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 10:56:47 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 10:21:39 AM
We now know that the Canadian government was in a state of utter panic when the polls showed that the Yes side was trending a majority. They just expected to win by default and they became desperate when the Yes was in the lead, hence why they decided to cheat the system and use federal money to fund the "love-in" demonstration right before the vote, and use expediencies like fast-tracking grants of citizenships for new immigrants (with the expectation they would vote No).

I just have a hard time believing stuff like this. Politicians are famously super paranoid and neurotic about every vote to the point they even cheat when they have double digit leads. The idea that any of them would expect to win by default strikes me as unlikely.
there were public inquiries into this, two, actually, plus numerous revisions of the case by the Directeur Général des Élections. 
That was confirmed.
The pretention by the Feds that a large number of votes were rejected by the Yes side was found untrue.

You have to remember this was the second referendum, 15 years after the 1st one.
The NO side won the first one 60-40.

Before the 1995 referendum, polls indicated a victory to the NO side by about the same margin.  Parizeau was hellbent on making a referendum anyway, but he lacked the charisma to champion the cause.  And just like everywhere else in the free world, people pretend to be concerned at their wallet, their tax levels, the general state of the economy, but when you talk about that, they get bored and don't listen to you, unless you tell them exactly what they want to hear.

Here comes Lucien Bouchard with a bold new strategy: "Numbers aren't important, it's what you feel".  It worked, to a point.  Support for the 'yes' side kept climbing, going for 41-42% to 49,5% by the time of the vote.

Drakken is still pissed off Quebec might have rejected the Queen and that's something he'll never forgive the seperatists for. ;)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 10, 2017, 01:08:34 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 12:39:50 PM
Minsky was right. This is farce. Pity that I don't find it funny.
Did the crisis affect Spanish economy at all, aside Catolonia, I mean?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 01:10:01 PM
So, when is the official response from Madrid - and Rajoy's public statement - scheduled to happen?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:13:03 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 01:10:01 PM
So, when is the official response from Madrid - and Rajoy's public statement - scheduled to happen?

Tomorrow afternoon (16h IIRC)

Honestly? The separatist radicals are furious and the people waiting outside Parliament to celebrate independence look like Barça just lost the CL final. I'd rather Madrid took his sweet time before giving them anything to galvanize them again.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 01:18:07 PM
Hopefully the radical separatists forget that revolutionaries are not supposed to eat their own until AFTER the revolution wins.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 10, 2017, 01:21:24 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 12:57:03 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 10, 2017, 12:56:04 PM
Looks good. Bbc is reporting the Catalan leader has announced the independence vote is on hold and talks shall begin

Yeah, except that Madrid won't talk. They will either ignore or invoke Article 155 in the next hours or so.

It's like the separatists genuinely believe that Rajoy pulled out the King himself to threaten them directly, all for a gigantic bluff. They are all in cuckooland.
Then maybe Madrid doesn't belong in the EU but rather the middle east. There they also don't talk. <_<

seems to me that Madrid can be happy the Catalans are who they are. In other places bombs would have been going off by now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:32:37 PM
Madrid has indicated that it's willing to talk of anything outside of independence, Congress has even started a commission for Constitutional reform. On that count, they succeeded, yet they seemed to prefer to jump off the cliff.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 01:36:37 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:32:37 PM
Madrid has indicated that it's willing to talk of anything outside of independence, Congress has even started a commission for Constitutional reform. On that count, they succeeded, yet they seemed to prefer to jump off the cliff.

In a shocking turn of events CI is misrepresenting the whole situation? Amazing.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 10, 2017, 01:41:11 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 12:49:21 PM
I can smell the poo from here. CiU was a Christian-Democrat business-friendly party for the past 40 years. And he's managed to have every single company in the Ibex 35 stock index leave the region in less than a week.

if companies are smart they'll keep moving. you'll probably get this thing happening every few decades, especially if you give them goodies for staying.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 10, 2017, 01:43:33 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 01:36:37 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:32:37 PM
Madrid has indicated that it's willing to talk of anything outside of independence, Congress has even started a commission for Constitutional reform. On that count, they succeeded, yet they seemed to prefer to jump off the cliff.

In a shocking turn of events CI is misrepresenting the whole situation? Amazing.

:rolleyes: Don't be the ass you usually are Valmy. At least give us that shocking turn of events.

It took Catalonia going to the brink of UDI for Madrid to give an indication of willingness to talk. An indication, which is still not the same as actually talking.
None of all the fracas would have been necessary if there had been willingness to talk 7 years ago.
So frankly, given the info available, I'm thinking I'm pretty much on the ball with the representation.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 01:46:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:32:37 PM
Madrid has indicated that it's willing to talk of anything outside of independence, Congress has even started a commission for Constitutional reform. On that count, they succeeded, yet they seemed to prefer to jump off the cliff.

I don't want to be a legalistic jerk, but didn't Puidgement proclaim independence, but "suspended" its effect for talks? Words are important here, and that is what I got from his speech: They have not backed down, independence has been proclaimed but not put in effect.

I am not sure Rajoy will read this as "renouncing" independence, because should talks fail it becomes effective. Basically, talks succeed if Madrid relents in every demand they make.

I am willing to bet 100 Euros that Rajoy's reply tomorrow will be that since they have not renounced secession, there will be no talk. Who's on the bet?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:50:14 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 01:46:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:32:37 PM
Madrid has indicated that it's willing to talk of anything outside of independence, Congress has even started a commission for Constitutional reform. On that count, they succeeded, yet they seemed to prefer to jump off the cliff.

I don't want to be a legalistic jerk, but didn't Puidgement proclaim independence, but "suspended" its effect for talks? Words are important here, and that is what I got from his speech: They have not backed down, independence has been proclaimed but not put in effect.

I am not sure Rajoy will read this as "renouncing" independence, because should talks fail it becomes effective.

I think Rajoy will proceed as if an UDI was indeed in effect. Which personally I think it's a mistake.

And if we are going the legalistic way, according to their ad-hoc law Parliament had to proclaim independence - not the Government. There hasn't been an act of Parliament today, just an address by the President.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 01:55:35 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:50:14 PM
I think Rajoy will proceed as if an UDI was indeed in effect. Which personally I think it's a mistake.

According to El Pais, it seems you are right. :(

Quote
El Gobierno español interpreta que la intervención del presidente de la Generalitat es una declaración de secesión

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/10/08/actualidad/1507486997_515327.html?rel=mas
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 01:57:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:50:14 PM
I think Rajoy will proceed as if an UDI was indeed in effect. Which personally I think it's a mistake.

Rajoy is not exactly a master strategist is he? I mean unless he is playing 4-D chess and only looking like a fool.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 01:59:02 PM
Quote from: HVC on October 10, 2017, 01:41:11 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 12:49:21 PM
I can smell the poo from here. CiU was a Christian-Democrat business-friendly party for the past 40 years. And he's managed to have every single company in the Ibex 35 stock index leave the region in less than a week.

if companies are smart they'll keep moving. you'll probably get this thing happening every few decades, especially if you give them goodies for staying.

Not decades, years. Last attempt was less than 3 years ago.

They've been playing this game for decades, and Spain always relented, until the only thing left to devolve was taxing authority. Which is not something you want to give up when you can be in this very same situation in a few years.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 02:03:19 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 01:57:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:50:14 PM
I think Rajoy will proceed as if an UDI was indeed in effect. Which personally I think it's a mistake.

Rajoy is not exactly a master strategist is he? I mean unless he is playing 4-D chess and only looking like a fool.

His only strategy is to wait out until political opponents shoot their own foot, or others come and fix things he's supposed to fix (hello Mario Draghi). For once, even though he's let this situation fester, I hope he sticks to his guns through the end and does nothing, or lets somebody else do it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 02:12:52 PM
I hope he just does nothing. And I mean nothing. Not even speaking about this. All he has to do is wait and watch silently as Catalonia's business flee and their politicians turn on each other.

But who am I kidding. He will find a way to fuck this up.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 02:15:09 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 02:12:52 PM
I hope he just does nothing. And I mean nothing. Not even speaking about this. All he has to do is wait and watch silently as Catalonia's business flee and their politicians turn on each other.

But who am I kidding. He will find a way to fuck this up.

If there is anything History shows, it is that it is very hard to stop once the drums of war have already started to beat - especially if you are one of those beating it. And Rajoy is already at war (with words only so far) with the Catalan Generalitat since the whole mess has started.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 02:20:39 PM
Looks like there might be an address from Rajoy this same night. Isn't there any football he can watch?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 02:23:02 PM
Oh ffs!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 02:23:12 PM
Spain's largest publishing company (based in Barcelona) announces that it's moving to Madrid right after the UDI-or-not.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 02:28:55 PM
Not that surprising. The ownership of Planeta was always vocal about it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 02:30:22 PM
Um isn't this starting to add up as far as jobs lost? Or is everybody just planning on taking the train to Madrid and moving with the company?

Madrid realestate sounds like the winning investment.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 02:34:25 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 02:30:22 PM
Um isn't this starting to add up as far as jobs lost? Or is everybody just planning on taking the train to Madrid and moving with the company?

Madrid realestate sounds like the winning investment.

Most companies are just changing "address" for now. It's mostly symbolic, except for the banks (which need access to ECB financing and deposit guarantee schemes). That been said, it will have a definite effect on local taxes, as some of those are paid to your city of "residence". Barcelona will have to plug a big hole in its budget next year.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 10, 2017, 02:38:26 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 02:20:39 PM
Looks like there might be an address from Rajoy this same night. Isn't there any football he can watch?

Well, for what remains as options, I believe it is the lesser of the two evils: If he is going to kick the Catalan separatists in the balls, better do it now than tomorrow.

I mean, why wait and let the situation fester any further? You do not know if there will be clashes in the streets of Barcelona tonight - and people getting killed or seriously hurt.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: mongers on October 10, 2017, 02:46:33 PM
Damn Canadians are like the hobbits of this world, it can be on the brink of chaos and they'll still wish to discuss the niceties of their constitution and which obscure politician is do what,when and why.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 10, 2017, 02:53:24 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 01:36:37 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 01:32:37 PM
Madrid has indicated that it's willing to talk of anything outside of independence, Congress has even started a commission for Constitutional reform. On that count, they succeeded, yet they seemed to prefer to jump off the cliff.

In a shocking turn of events CI is misrepresenting the whole situation? Amazing.
They could have talked before the referendum.  They could have said something to the effect they were willing to talk.
But they used the hard line, and now they are backed in a corner: either they up the violence&repression a notch and they look like Syria, or they admit they are willing to talk.

If they were serious about talking, they would have done it before.

Now, I think it's just a ploy to defuse the situation and hope the nationalist sentiment of Catolonia are toned down while pro-union and moderates in Catalonia marginalize the ultra-seperatist.

That is my 0,02$.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 10, 2017, 03:16:18 PM
It physically hurts me to actually defend Rajoy, but he always offered dialogue to Puigdemont as long as independence was off the table.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 03:28:03 PM
Looks like the separatist MPs signed a proper, actual UDI in a room inside Parliament. I guess that's the "suspended UDI".

The Spanish VP is going to make an address. That precludes anything substantial happening just yet (it would be Rajoy announcing it otherwise)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 03:30:04 PM
VP? I thought you had a monarchy? :hmm: Or is that the deputy PM or something?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 03:32:44 PM
This is getting sillier by the hour. Are they trying to get arrested? Are they hoping the police assaults Parliament or something? :huh:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 10, 2017, 03:33:29 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 03:30:04 PM
VP? I thought you had a monarchy? :hmm: Or is that the deputy PM or something?

Over here we don't call our PM PM. We call him Prez.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 03:33:54 PM
Ah ok thanks for the clarification.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 03:36:20 PM
The Spanish Cabinet will meet tomorrow morning "to discuss the steps we'll undertake", according to the VP.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 10, 2017, 03:41:31 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 10, 2017, 02:46:33 PM
Damn Canadians are like the hobbits of this world, it can be on the brink of chaos and they'll still wish to discuss the niceties of their constitution and which obscure politician is do what,when and why.

I thought you were a hobbit. :unsure:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 10, 2017, 03:45:48 PM
Quote from: The Larch on October 10, 2017, 03:16:18 PM
It physically hurts me to actually defend Rajoy, but he always offered dialogue to Puigdemont as long as independence was off the table.

A great Galician like you?  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 10, 2017, 03:47:23 PM
In case anyone was wondering, the BBC chick pronounced el Gran Queso Catalan's name Poochemont. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 10, 2017, 03:53:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 10, 2017, 03:47:23 PM
Poochemont. 

No wonder he is so totally extreme.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fblindsquirrelprops.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F07%2Fpoochie_old01.jpg&hash=64086c4dbf4c85f93e7b81b736991ecbe5f01e4f)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 10, 2017, 04:03:40 PM
The far-left radical separatist party (CUP), says that they will debate leaving Parliament for the time being after the suspension of the UDI.

Separatists NGOs (which are hugely influential) asking Puigdemont that he sets a "limited time" for the suspension of the UDI.

Will see what happens. I think after today this is for Rajoy's to lose now. Which he perfectly can.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 10, 2017, 11:12:31 PM
Quote from: The Larch on October 10, 2017, 03:16:18 PM
It physically hurts me to actually defend Rajoy, but he always offered dialogue to Puigdemont as long as independence was off the table.
Ok, I did not know that.  That part was missing from the coverage.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 10, 2017, 11:14:53 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 10, 2017, 02:46:33 PM
Damn Canadians are like the hobbits of this world, it can be on the brink of chaos and they'll still wish to discuss the niceties of their constitution and which obscure politician is do what,when and why.
that was a minor interlude only.  :sleep:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 11, 2017, 01:17:57 AM
Watching some Portuguese news channel, just noticed the Podemos talking head comparing Rajoy to Erdogan, using the slippery rope argument (we don't want Rajoy to behave/turn like Erdogan).  :lmfao:
Plus judging wise the suspended UDI by Carles.  :D

PS: worse than I thought
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 04:08:46 AM
Rajoy about to appear in Congress. Pulse racing...

EDIT: Seems he'll appear this afternoon, only ministers/VP talking for now.

EDIT2: No, at noon.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 05:22:29 AM
Like a true Galician (sorry Larchie) Rajoy has bounced it back. He formally requests the Catalan Government to clarify whether they declared independence or not yesterday, before undertaking further steps (hinting that those steps would be the intervention of Catalan autonomy)

This should at least give me until the weekend without panic attacks.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 06:22:31 AM
Opposition leader announces he's reached an agreement with Rajoy to start Constitutional reform, including regional organization. The Commission had already been greenlit a few weeks ago, and it will start to deliberate next week.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 11:15:53 AM
So this is how it's being reported:

1) The Government, through the Spanish Senate, is formally asking the Catalan Government whether it's declared independence or not, and has until Monday to produce an answer.
2) If the answer is "yes" there's a second deadline until Thursday 19 to retract it.
3) Failing that, the process to intervene the Catalan autonomy (art. 155 of the Spanish Constitution) will start.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 11:21:02 AM
Man, you guys suck at quelling regional tension.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 11:25:50 AM
They have also opened the Commission on Constitutional Reform and invited the separatists to participate. 2 out of 3 separatist parties have already refused.

I don't know what else Madrid could do at this point. A democratic state can't break its own Constitution.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 11:54:04 AM
Give more autonomy. Of course the separatist don't want to participate. Doesn't matter. You don't talk to the Parties, you talk to the population.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 11, 2017, 12:01:46 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 11:54:04 AM
Give more autonomy. Of course the separatist don't want to participate. Doesn't matter. You don't talk to the Parties, you talk to the population.

They cannot give any more autonomy. The only thing that'd remain to be delegated to Catalonia is control over taxation.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 12:13:13 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 11:54:04 AM
Give more autonomy. Of course the separatist don't want to participate. Doesn't matter. You don't talk to the Parties, you talk to the population.

That would be complicated. A new Constitution can be approved without them, a new Catalan Statute not.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 12:26:20 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 11, 2017, 12:01:46 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 11:54:04 AM
Give more autonomy. Of course the separatist don't want to participate. Doesn't matter. You don't talk to the Parties, you talk to the population.

They cannot give any more autonomy. The only thing that'd remain to be delegated to Catalonia is control over taxation.

Yeah, Spain is extremely decentralized. But it can be perfected.

Taxation ultimately is the big thing remaining, and even if the state doesn't want to give all of it up, the current system is extremely imperfect, complicated, and - worst of all - opaque. The biggest structural problem affecting regions right now (ALL of them, not just Catalonia), is that they control most of the expenditure (health care, education, etc...) but have very little control on the financing. If a region finds itself lacking funds after receiving transfers from the State, they have few levers they can pull to increase their own revenue besides some small devolved taxes and rising/lowering a few points on the income tax. All they can do is to cut expense or run big deficits. Some kind of co-participation in tax policy and collection is necessary, as well as increased ability to create new taxes. Even the liberals (notorious anti-nationalists) have put forward a reform to increase regional tax autonomy to a degree. An independent commission established by Madrid also produced a similar proposal.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 01:00:10 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 11, 2017, 12:01:46 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 11:54:04 AM
Give more autonomy. Of course the separatist don't want to participate. Doesn't matter. You don't talk to the Parties, you talk to the population.

They cannot give any more autonomy. The only thing that'd remain to be delegated to Catalonia is control over taxation.

Good place to start.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 01:06:26 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 01:00:10 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 11, 2017, 12:01:46 PM
They cannot give any more autonomy. The only thing that'd remain to be delegated to Catalonia is control over taxation.

Good place to start.

Ten years ago I would maybe agree. Not anymore. It would make another go at this even more risky.

I'm all for dialogue but there are two things that have to happen:

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 11, 2017, 01:15:09 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 01:00:10 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 11, 2017, 12:01:46 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 11:54:04 AM
Give more autonomy. Of course the separatist don't want to participate. Doesn't matter. You don't talk to the Parties, you talk to the population.

They cannot give any more autonomy. The only thing that'd remain to be delegated to Catalonia is control over taxation.

Good place to start.

Sounds like that would be the end not the start :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 01:27:20 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 01:06:26 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 01:00:10 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 11, 2017, 12:01:46 PM
They cannot give any more autonomy. The only thing that'd remain to be delegated to Catalonia is control over taxation.

Good place to start.

Ten years ago I would maybe agree. Not anymore. It would make another go at this even more risky.

I'm all for dialogue but there are two things that have to happen:


  • Everyone involved in setting this up ends in jail. Dialogue can start with whoever is in charge afterwards.
  • The central government must keep control and oversight of any power that can turn against it.

:lol:

Man, you guys suck at quelling regional tension.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 01:36:40 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 01:27:20 PM
Man, you guys suck at quelling regional tension.

This might be new to you. But we've been playing this game for 40 long years:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.imgur.com%2FEIRixHQ.jpg&hash=9d896377cc8feaa4705be457b9558bb189631847)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 11, 2017, 01:45:53 PM
So I guess, in the view of the Spaniards, the Catalans have no reason to complain, because all is required of them to speak Spanish and they have all the rights like everyone else, right?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 02:07:04 PM
I'm an "ethnic Catalan" and I have no reason to complain.

Learning Catalan in schools? Check - it's the vehicular language for everybody, even.
Using it my relationship with the state? Check - All regional government stuff is preferentially done in Catalan, and pretty much all State stuff is available in all Spanish languages.
Catalan Culture? - Check - the autonomy of the regional government in cultural policy is immense, we can do anything we want. Catalan culture is flourishing right now.
Media? Check - There's plenty of Catalan language media, both private and state-funded.

So, as a Catalan, what else could I want from my state?

The things I have to complain about - corruption, unemployment, funding of education and health care, etc... - are the same things somebody from Valencia, Cádiz or Valladolid could complain about
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 11, 2017, 02:12:31 PM
I was asking of course because that was the attitude toward the ethnic non-Hungarians within Hungary before 1918, and then has been the attitude toward ethnic Hungarians across the borders after 1920.

Because of that, I find the "naive Spain feeding Catalan dragon" cartoons in bad taste, however silly the notion of independence is.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 02:19:32 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 11, 2017, 02:12:31 PM
I was asking of course because that was the attitude toward the ethnic non-Hungarians within Hungary before 1918, and then has been the attitude toward ethnic Hungarians across the borders after 1920.

Because of that, I find the "naive Spain feeding Catalan dragon" cartoons in bad taste, however silly the notion of independence is.

I'm quite certain we're far better off than pre-WWI Hungarian minorities.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 03:33:59 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 11, 2017, 02:12:31 PM
I was asking of course because that was the attitude toward the ethnic non-Hungarians within Hungary before 1918, and then has been the attitude toward ethnic Hungarians across the borders after 1920.

Because of that, I find the "naive Spain feeding Catalan dragon" cartoons in bad taste, however silly the notion of independence is.

It's not a Catalan dragon, it's a separatist dragon. Though I admit the difference is easy to miss for a foreigner.

On the left Catalonia's flag. On the right the separatist flag:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fe01-elmundo.uecdn.es%2Fassets%2Fmultimedia%2Fimagenes%2F2016%2F05%2F19%2F14636758309502.jpg&hash=8f260fc841ff54f8b78841d41a729bd39c8c513d)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 11, 2017, 03:39:38 PM
So instead of the new Switzerland they want to be the new Cuba?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 11, 2017, 03:42:08 PM
How can a separatist not use the national flag as their symbol?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Maladict on October 11, 2017, 03:51:17 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 11, 2017, 03:42:08 PM
How can a separatist not use the national flag as their symbol?

All the cool new countries have stars on their flags. Kosovo, South Sudan, Myanmar...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 11, 2017, 03:54:00 PM
Quote from: Maladict on October 11, 2017, 03:51:17 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 11, 2017, 03:42:08 PM
How can a separatist not use the national flag as their symbol?

All the cool new countries have stars on their flags. Kosovo, South Sudan, Myanmar...

(https://fa707ec5abab9620c91c-e087a9513984a31bae18dd7ef8b1f502.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/7471975_20-most-expensive-paintings-in-the-world_t768d107f.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 03:57:29 PM
It's got to the point where the historical Catalan flag is slowly becoming an Unionist symbol.  :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 04:10:05 PM
By the way I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised by both Rajoy and the leader of the Socialists today. One might be tempted to say the acted like actual statesmen.   :blink:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 04:11:17 PM
For a 40 year old movement, they are really badly organized.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 04:15:06 PM
The old guard retired some time ago. Pujol might have been a crook (probably the biggest crook in the country) but he knew how to run things. His successor, Mas, was not anywhere near his caliber. The movement came to be dominated by the far-left (ERC, CUP). Puigdemont is just trying to stay above water.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 11, 2017, 04:21:09 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 01:06:26 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 01:00:10 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 11, 2017, 12:01:46 PM
They cannot give any more autonomy. The only thing that'd remain to be delegated to Catalonia is control over taxation.

Good place to start.

Ten years ago I would maybe agree. Not anymore. It would make another go at this even more risky.

I'm all for dialogue but there are two things that have to happen:


  • Everyone involved in setting this up ends in jail. Dialogue can start with whoever is in charge afterwards.
  • The central government must keep control and oversight of any power that can turn against it.
that's not really autonomy.  In fact, it's quite the opposite.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 04:30:49 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 04:10:05 PM
By the way I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised by both Rajoy and the leader of the Socialists today. One might be tempted to say the acted like actual statesmen.   :blink:

Trying a delaying action against Rajoy is like challenging prime Mike Tyson to a fist-fight.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 04:40:02 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 11, 2017, 04:21:09 PM
that's not really autonomy.  In fact, it's quite the opposite.

They already have autonomy. The Generalitat is very welcome to continue to run hospitals or any number of other tasks as it sees fit. It has however proven incapable of responsible administration of police, education and state media. Much less taxation.

When your kid throws a party while you're away and thrashes your house you don't buy him a new BMW.

In parallel, we can engage on dialogue on how to change our constitution with the representatives Catalonia chooses in new elections. Personally, as stated before, I'm all for a referendum provided it requires a qualified majority and is undertaken on a local level. And there's probably more like me. All Catalonian nationalists have to do is drop the victim bullshit and start convincing people.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 11, 2017, 04:53:05 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 11, 2017, 03:57:29 PM
It's got to the point where the historical Catalan flag is slowly becoming an Unionist symbol.  :lol:

LULZ
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 11, 2017, 07:21:31 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 11, 2017, 01:27:20 PM
:lol:

Man, you guys suck at quelling regional tension.

:lol:

Man, you guys suck at understanding regional tension.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on October 12, 2017, 07:34:49 AM
Who's you, Aristote?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 12, 2017, 07:49:12 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 11, 2017, 03:33:59 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 11, 2017, 02:12:31 PM
I was asking of course because that was the attitude toward the ethnic non-Hungarians within Hungary before 1918, and then has been the attitude toward ethnic Hungarians across the borders after 1920.

Because of that, I find the "naive Spain feeding Catalan dragon" cartoons in bad taste, however silly the notion of independence is.

It's not a Catalan dragon, it's a separatist dragon. Though I admit the difference is easy to miss for a foreigner.

On the left Catalonia's flag. On the right the separatist flag:

[img]http://e01-mg]

Funny coincidence that north east Spain has the same traditional flag as north east England :bowler:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 12, 2017, 08:04:54 AM
Our northeastern flags are big on pine trees.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 12, 2017, 08:19:12 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 12, 2017, 07:49:12 AM
Funny coincidence that north east Spain has the same traditional flag as north east England :bowler:

You won't like that, but it's one of the reasons why I started following Newcastle United  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 12, 2017, 08:22:33 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 12, 2017, 08:19:12 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 12, 2017, 07:49:12 AM
Funny coincidence that north east Spain has the same traditional flag as north east England :bowler:

You won't like that, but it's one of the reasons why I started following Newcastle United  :P
So you chose our Espanyol.
Sunderland at least stick close to the proper colours :contract: :p
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 12, 2017, 08:31:06 AM
Espanyol are the Catalan mackems  :P

Truth is that I've been following the PL since the 1990s, and it's more exciting when you've got skin in the game. NUFC are hilarious to follow, plus Bobby Robson managed Barça and the Nortumbria flag was cool and all.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: katmai on October 12, 2017, 08:56:24 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 12, 2017, 08:31:06 AM
Espanyol are the Catalan mackems  :P

Truth is that I've been following the PL since the 1990s, and it's more exciting when you've got skin in the game. NUFC are hilarious to follow, plus Bobby Robson managed Barça and the Nortumbria flag was cool and all.
Futbol hijack, but man those Alan Shearer teams  :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 12, 2017, 09:08:35 AM
Quote from: katmai on October 12, 2017, 08:56:24 AMFutbol hijack,

Speaking of which, what the fuck happened to you guys?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 12, 2017, 09:10:57 AM
Quote from: katmai on October 12, 2017, 08:56:24 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 12, 2017, 08:31:06 AM
Espanyol are the Catalan mackems  :P

Truth is that I've been following the PL since the 1990s, and it's more exciting when you've got skin in the game. NUFC are hilarious to follow, plus Bobby Robson managed Barça and the Nortumbria flag was cool and all.
Futbol hijack, but man those Alan Shearer teams  :)

Yeah, Shearer was ace. One of my favorite foreign footballers when I was a kid.

For somebody that doesn't give that much of a damn, NUFC are a great team to follow. The drama is ever-present (hilariously so), yet they have a history of good teams and footballers which gives them a decent tradition.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 12, 2017, 10:22:17 AM
Plus they're chaotic evil. That's always fun.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 12, 2017, 10:28:44 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 12, 2017, 10:22:17 AM
Plus they're chaotic evil. That's always fun.

The Orcs of the football world?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 12, 2017, 11:39:22 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 12, 2017, 10:28:44 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 12, 2017, 10:22:17 AM
Plus they're chaotic evil. That's always fun.

The Orcs of the football world?

Sort of.
But with lots of money. And humans in green paint joining their ranks in the quest for glory.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 12, 2017, 02:16:09 PM
So, today's Spain's National Day, and there was an Unionist demo in Barcelona. Our Minority Leader was present.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fe00-elmundo.uecdn.es%2Fassets%2Fmultimedia%2Fimagenes%2F2017%2F10%2F12%2F15078286507444.jpg&hash=fee061ff068447fea54025545d970fc4e141b1dd)

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 12, 2017, 03:19:26 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 12, 2017, 02:16:09 PM
So, today's Spain's National Day, and there was an Unionist demo in Barcelona. Our Minority Leader was present.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fe00-elmundo.uecdn.es%2Fassets%2Fmultimedia%2Fimagenes%2F2017%2F10%2F12%2F15078286507444.jpg&hash=fee061ff068447fea54025545d970fc4e141b1dd)


I'm convinced.  Catalonia should definately remain part of Spain.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 13, 2017, 02:31:44 AM
Radical separatists putting pressure on the Catalan President to rebuke Madrid's advances and un-suspend the DUI. Several public letters were issued yesterday and today by separatist NGOs and the far-left separatist party demanding it.

Madrid has given a deadline until next Monday for the regional government to clarify whether a DUI was issued this Tuesday (none was formally issued in Parliament, but separatist MPs signed one in an adjacent room), and retract it if affirmatively, while offering Constitutional reform. If the Catalan Government goes for glory, Catalan autonomy will be intervened and this place becomes the Sunny Ulster.

I hope sanity wins out.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 13, 2017, 09:48:26 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 13, 2017, 02:31:44 AM
Radical separatists putting pressure on the Catalan President to rebuke Madrid's advances and un-suspend the DUI. Several public letters were issued yesterday and today by separatist NGOs and the far-left separatist party demanding it.

Madrid has given a deadline until next Monday for the regional government to clarify whether a DUI was issued this Tuesday (none was formally issued in Parliament, but separatist MPs signed one in an adjacent room), and retract it if affirmatively, while offering Constitutional reform. If the Catalan Government goes for glory, Catalan autonomy will be intervened and this place becomes the Sunny Ulster.

I hope sanity wins out.

Heh - I assume you meant UDI.

DUI stands for "Driving under the influence". :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 13, 2017, 09:50:40 AM
Quote from: Barrister on October 13, 2017, 09:48:26 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 13, 2017, 02:31:44 AM
Radical separatists putting pressure on the Catalan President to rebuke Madrid's advances and un-suspend the DUI. Several public letters were issued yesterday and today by separatist NGOs and the far-left separatist party demanding it.

Madrid has given a deadline until next Monday for the regional government to clarify whether a DUI was issued this Tuesday (none was formally issued in Parliament, but separatist MPs signed one in an adjacent room), and retract it if affirmatively, while offering Constitutional reform. If the Catalan Government goes for glory, Catalan autonomy will be intervened and this place becomes the Sunny Ulster.

I hope sanity wins out.

Heh - I assume you meant UDI.

DUI stands for "Driving under the influence". :)

Yeah sorry, DUI is the Catalan acronym.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 13, 2017, 01:06:35 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 12, 2017, 02:16:09 PM
So, today's Spain's National Day, and there was an Unionist demo in Barcelona. Our Minority Leader was present.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fe00-elmundo.uecdn.es%2Fassets%2Fmultimedia%2Fimagenes%2F2017%2F10%2F12%2F15078286507444.jpg&hash=fee061ff068447fea54025545d970fc4e141b1dd)

Wrists are too bony.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: viper37 on October 13, 2017, 01:56:59 PM
internet standards and all that :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 13, 2017, 02:03:19 PM
Sadly no wrists on show here.

(https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/index.php?attachments/1c4tzam-gif.306080/)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 13, 2017, 03:02:07 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vistoenforocoches.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F01%2Fmelafo.gif&hash=82e7f503193849265e4e4d39980bb88023bc3236)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 13, 2017, 04:05:57 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 13, 2017, 02:03:19 PM
Sadly no wrists on show here.

(https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/index.php?attachments/1c4tzam-gif.306080/)

Are the elbows pointy?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 15, 2017, 05:59:24 PM
So... we are reaching Monday. Any updates? Have they seen the light now?

Here in our usually "pro-Catalan" news in Quebec it was reported that a number of separatist groups are "spontaneously" assembling in Barcelona and other cities to "defende the independence of Catalonia".
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2017, 06:15:51 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 15, 2017, 05:59:24 PM
So... we are reaching Monday. Any updates? Have they seen the light now?

Here in our usually "pro-Catalan" news in Quebec it was reported that a number of separatist groups are "spontaneously" assembling in Barcelona and other cities to "defende the independence of Catalonia".

Rumour is that he's going to issue a "yes and no" answer to the "did you declare independence?" question, and appeal once again for dialogue (of which the only acceptable outcome is independence, as set today by the Catalan VP). Thus bouncing back the ball towards Madrid, who'd start triggering the intervention of the autonomy unless there's a formal retraction of the UDI by Thursday.

There's been some private gatherings of "Committees for the Defence of the Republic" to organize. There hasn't been any public demo in Barcelona yet, though.

Surprisingly, one of the most important separatist newspapers has come out today against the UDI, arguing that the social, economic and political damage would be too high (NO SHIT SHERLOCK). Too little too late, methinks.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2017, 07:02:31 PM
Also, the two heads of the two largest separatist NGOs and the head of the regional police are set again to appear before court in Madrid tomorrow under sedition charges. As usual, there's speculation of whether they'll make it back to Barcelona or will sleep behind bars. Personally, I'd be surprised if the judge decreed provisional detainment so early, but the whole thing is sealed so we don't know what kind of evidence the prosecution has provided.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 01:49:26 AM
The Catalan President's answer has already been made public. He actually doesn't answer Madrid's request (not even with a "yes but no" he just skirts the issue in the 2-page document), but requests direct negotiations with Rajoy and/or international mediation, and demands to stop the "repression from the central government" (directly asking that Madrid stops ongoing court proceedings because, yay separation of powers).

I suppose in due time there will be an English translation of the document somewhere.

I'm all for negotiation (really), but the only negotiation from the separatist camp (as said by themselves repeteadly) is about how to remove the "U" from UDI. Something that Madrid just won't and shouldn't ever entertain.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 10:10:35 AM
Looks like there's a good chance that the sedition lot will sleep in the joint tonight. If that's the case, everything will explode this week.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 16, 2017, 10:12:25 AM
The Separatists made this move with 40%+ of the population being against them. It was unlikely it was not going to explode at some point under those circumstances.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 10:15:11 AM
I know. It's still going to suck.

Right now, there's a lot of cracks in the separatist coalition between moderates and radicals, but there's just not a way out for the moderates, they backed themselves into a corner. So Ulster it is. Sigh.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 10:25:57 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 10:10:35 AM
Looks like there's a good chance that the sedition lot will sleep in the joint tonight. If that's the case, everything will explode this week.

I don't know anything about the situation, but isn't that the inevitable outcome of what is happening here?

Everyone seems desperate to avoid it, but at the end of the day, rebellion means war or capitulation. There really isn't any middle ground that keeps Spain together peacefully other than the separatists just giving in...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 10:35:26 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 10:25:57 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 10:10:35 AM
Looks like there's a good chance that the sedition lot will sleep in the joint tonight. If that's the case, everything will explode this week.

I don't know anything about the situation, but isn't that the inevitable outcome of what is happening here?

Everyone seems desperate to avoid it, but at the end of the day, rebellion means war or capitulation. There really isn't any middle ground that keeps Spain together peacefully other than the separatists just giving in...

Probably, but as a resident in rebellious territory, one was hoping for a whiff of sanity. The pronuncements by the EU and the flight of the largest Catalan companies in the past few weeks should have made apparent that unilateral independence is just a) not going to happen b) a really stupid idea.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 16, 2017, 10:58:50 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 10:25:57 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 10:10:35 AM
Looks like there's a good chance that the sedition lot will sleep in the joint tonight. If that's the case, everything will explode this week.

I don't know anything about the situation, but isn't that the inevitable outcome of what is happening here?

Everyone seems desperate to avoid it, but at the end of the day, rebellion means war or capitulation. There really isn't any middle ground that keeps Spain together peacefully other than the separatists just giving in...

Nonsense.  There are a number of middle ground resolutions that could be reached, but they'd all probably have to essentially return to the status 2006-2010.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 11:10:50 AM
Quote from: grumbler on October 16, 2017, 10:58:50 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 10:25:57 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 10:10:35 AM
Looks like there's a good chance that the sedition lot will sleep in the joint tonight. If that's the case, everything will explode this week.

I don't know anything about the situation, but isn't that the inevitable outcome of what is happening here?

Everyone seems desperate to avoid it, but at the end of the day, rebellion means war or capitulation. There really isn't any middle ground that keeps Spain together peacefully other than the separatists just giving in...

Nonsense.  There are a number of middle ground resolutions that could be reached, but they'd all probably have to essentially return to the status 2006-2010.

What was that status?

And wouldn't that be the separatists basically giving in?

Is a return to the 2006-2010 status the actual goal?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 11:15:12 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 11:10:50 AM
Quote from: grumbler on October 16, 2017, 10:58:50 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 10:25:57 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 10:10:35 AM
Looks like there's a good chance that the sedition lot will sleep in the joint tonight. If that's the case, everything will explode this week.

I don't know anything about the situation, but isn't that the inevitable outcome of what is happening here?

Everyone seems desperate to avoid it, but at the end of the day, rebellion means war or capitulation. There really isn't any middle ground that keeps Spain together peacefully other than the separatists just giving in...

Nonsense.  There are a number of middle ground resolutions that could be reached, but they'd all probably have to essentially return to the status 2006-2010.

What was that status?

And wouldn't that be the separatists basically giving in?

Is a return to the 2006-2010 status the actual goal?

That would indeed be the separatists giving in. 2006-2010 status isn't actually that different to what we have now, the only thing of note that was struck down from the 2006 statute was a partial devolution of the judiciary.

The Madrid government has offered Constitutional reform and discuss autonomy matters - which is a concession from them since they have always been against it -, so that's already on the table and refused by the separatists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 16, 2017, 11:16:57 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 11:10:50 AM
What was that status?


Google "Catalon Statute of Autonomy 2006"

QuoteAnd wouldn't that be the separatists basically giving in?

Is a return to the 2006-2010 status the actual goal?

It would be both sides making concessions.  It isn't the actual goal of either side, which is why it is a compromise.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 02:22:15 PM
The 2 heads of the regional police investigated for sedition have been released with charges and barred from leaving the country. However, the two leaders of the two largest separatist NGOs go to preventive detention.

I need bunker-building advice from Ed.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 02:27:47 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 02:22:15 PM
The 2 heads of the regional police investigated for sedition have been released with charges and barred from leaving the country.

What if the country leaves them?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 02:35:38 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 16, 2017, 02:27:47 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 02:22:15 PM
The 2 heads of the regional police investigated for sedition have been released with charges and barred from leaving the country.

What if the country leaves them?

Good question  :hmm:

Actually the purported transitional Constitution of the Catalan Republic incorporates immediate amnesty for all those involved in the run-up to independence.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 02:37:26 PM
The intensity of the demos/possible rioting in the next few days will tell us how much life there's left in this. I'm afraid it's gonna be quite a bit. The orgs these two lead have mobilized hundreds of thousands in the past.

Sigh.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Razgovory on October 16, 2017, 02:42:54 PM
Quote from: Savonarola on May 20, 2017, 10:29:07 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on May 19, 2017, 04:20:46 PM
Almost finished with Orwell's Homage to Catalonia.  Orwell's strengths are his clear prose, honesty, and earnestness.  He's also terribly naive (something does admit to), and has terrible political instincts.  His observations are pretty good, though I question his analysis sometimes.  For instance, he notes that steady trickle of deserters come from the Nationalist lines but almost no deserters coming from the Republican lines.  He claims this is because of the superiority of the message the propaganda broadcasters on the loud speakers.  I suspect it has more to do with the fact that the part of the lines Orwell was manned by volunteers and the nationalists were using conscripts in that location at the time has more to do with it.  I also suspect that the propaganda of creating a socialist world was less effective than the messages about plentiful food.

CB and I stayed at the same hotel the Orwells did.  The descriptions of the street fighting on The Ramblas seem unbelievable today; that's tourist trap central.

http://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,124.msg1083084.html#msg1083084

Bolded for emphasis.

It's amazing how things can change in just a few months.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Ed Anger on October 16, 2017, 07:10:54 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 16, 2017, 02:22:15 PM
The 2 heads of the regional police investigated for sedition have been released with charges and barred from leaving the country. However, the two leaders of the two largest separatist NGOs go to preventive detention.

I need bunker-building advice from Ed.

Got a basement? 3 months food and water. Don't wait till the "Neighborhood protection" units start forming. Or "patriotic defense brigades"

Get a couple of axes and crowbars. Refill all prescriptions and keep a good first aid kit.

I'll pray for you.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 17, 2017, 10:43:34 AM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalonia-catalan-independence-referendum-spain-constitutional-court-void-a8004941.html

QuoteCatalonia: Spain's constitutional court declares Catalan referendum law void

Spain's top court has officially ruled that Catalonia's disputed independence referendum was illegal because a regional law that backed it was against Spain's constitution.

The Catalan regional parliament passed the so-called "self-determination referendum law" in early September.

Regional leaders went on to stage the October 1 referendum on whether the region should separate from Spain.

Spain's Constitutional Court had earlier suspended the law temporarily while judges assessed the Spanish government's objection to it.

In its ruling on Tuesday, the court said the law was against national sovereignty and the "indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation".

The court said that the parliamentary session that approved the law was also illegal.

Catalan government spokesman Jordi Turull said he was not surprised, saying: "We are facing an executive power in the state that uses the judiciary branch to block the legislative."

A Madrid judge on Monday provisionally jailed Jordi Sanchez and Jordi Cuixart, the leaders of grassroots organisations (sic) Catalan National Assembly and Omnium Cultural.

The judge ruled they were orchestrators of massive demonstrations on September 20 to 21 in Barcelona that hindered a police operation against preparations for the October 1 independence referendum.

It was to be expected but, nonetheless, it's now set in stone: The Catalan Assembly was and still is in illegality with this referendum, and if they continue to base on its results they are, in effect, rebels.

Ah, and this small nugget from RT:

Quote
The reply it gave on Monday was deemed "not valid" by Madrid, threatening to suspend Catalonia's autonomy under Article 155. However, the Catalan authorities remain adamant and say they "won't give anything different" on Thursday.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 17, 2017, 11:09:06 AM
The Catalan government has indicated that they'll give no further response to Madrid, and the separatist parlamentary groups have announced they are working in the "parlamentary implementation of the results of the referendum" - so, the UDI.

The next two weeks will be pure shitstorm.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 17, 2017, 05:29:11 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 12, 2017, 05:04:37 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 12, 2017, 03:06:07 PM
We wouldn't get back into the EU anytime soon. If only per encourager les autres. Spain has veto, too.

And yet taking a hardline on Catexit would be kind of cutting the nose to spite the face.
I would assume that an independent Catalonia would port over most existing EU law and regs to national law, and immediately seek EEA status.  Does that require unanimous consent from every EU state?  In any case, hard to think of a reasoned basis for refusing.
Once they're in EFTA/EEA seems to me full EU membership would be just a matter of time.

Haven't seen anything on English-speaking media, but apparently the head of EFTA just closed that particular door.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 18, 2017, 07:34:41 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 17, 2017, 05:29:11 PM
Haven't seen anything on English-speaking media, but apparently the head of EFTA just closed that particular door. 

Croatia is only provisionally a member of EEA because all states within EEA have not yet agreed to its membership.  So, presumably, Spain can veto a Catalon EEA membership.  Only the EFTA members have to agree with membership in the EFTA, but that doesn't confer membership in the EEA.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 18, 2017, 09:20:59 AM
Madrid says that it won't intervene the Catalan autonomy if the Catalan president calls for elections, after rumours appeared in the separatist camp that he might do so and call them "Constituent Elections" (Madrid won't give a shit about what they chose to call them, since they would be triggered using Spanish law).

Of course, the radical faction won't buy that unless there's an UDI before the elections are called.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 18, 2017, 09:25:00 AM
Why does a small minority faction of a minority faction get to dictate the future of Catalonia?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 18, 2017, 09:27:39 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2017, 09:25:00 AM
Why does a small minority faction of a minority faction get to dictate the future of Catalonia?

You're the fan of the French Revolution. You should know how these things work out.

In short: when the mobs are agitated, you don't want to be the one they call traitor.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 18, 2017, 09:39:28 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 18, 2017, 09:27:39 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2017, 09:25:00 AM
Why does a small minority faction of a minority faction get to dictate the future of Catalonia?

You're the fan of the French Revolution. You should know how these things work out.

In short: when the mobs are agitated, you don't want to be the one they call traitor.

:face:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 18, 2017, 09:41:07 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 18, 2017, 09:27:39 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2017, 09:25:00 AM
Why does a small minority faction of a minority faction get to dictate the future of Catalonia?

You're the fan of the French Revolution. You should know how these things work out.

In short: when the mobs are agitated, you don't want to be the one they call traitor.

Well ok you got me there. But at least in the French Revolution you needed a major war to break out for radicalism to rule the day.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 18, 2017, 09:46:36 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2017, 09:41:07 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 18, 2017, 09:27:39 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2017, 09:25:00 AM
Why does a small minority faction of a minority faction get to dictate the future of Catalonia?

You're the fan of the French Revolution. You should know how these things work out.

In short: when the mobs are agitated, you don't want to be the one they call traitor.

Well ok you got me there. But at least in the French Revolution you needed a major war to break out for radicalism to rule the day.

We're just another episode of the weird wave of wealthy and free western societies where a bunch of its constituents suddenly decide that they are being OPRESSED and must BREAK FREE. In this case the nationalists were smart to capture that discontent and use it to their ends (the ruling moderate nationalist party was widely unpopular before they embraced separatism as a means of political survival), but they can't really control the behemoth.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 19, 2017, 03:29:29 AM
The Catalan Government says that if Madrid intervenes the autonomy, there will be an UDI. Madrid considers this answer "unsatisfactory" and that the Generalitat hasn't satisfied its request to return to the Constitutional order, thus it will proceed to trigger article 155 to enable intervention of the Generalitat. This can take a couple weeks, though, since it requires a debate and a vote in the Senate where the Generalitat can present its arguments.

It will be hell.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 19, 2017, 03:37:40 AM
By the way, just found out that a "Committee for the Defence of the Republic" has already been formed in the town next to mine.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Archy on October 19, 2017, 05:07:19 AM
Is there already a Comité de salut public being formed  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 19, 2017, 05:14:20 AM
Careful, the French references could be seen a catalan tendency to minimise or deny their Iberian-ness.  :P Hence, pro-independence. ;)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 19, 2017, 10:01:09 AM
When Catalan Emperor Napoleon IV puts his brother on the throne of Spain they will all be sorry.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 19, 2017, 04:32:46 PM
The separatists are trying to organize a bank run on the two Catalan banks that moved their HQ outside of Catalonia to ensure they remain under the EBC umbrella "just in case".

They'll only manage to withdraw a rounding error in those banks' total deposits, but this is bordering on Darwin Award-esque.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Ed Anger on October 19, 2017, 07:37:15 PM
Y'all need Suchet to restore order.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 20, 2017, 07:57:39 AM
Rajoy's government and the Socialist opposition came to an agreement for new regional elections to be held in Catalonia this January - obviously without the Catalan parliament's prior consent since Article 155 is all but a formality now.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41693318
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 20, 2017, 08:33:23 AM
The moderate majority of pro independnece people have come around right?
As this sounds increasingly messy.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 20, 2017, 09:16:54 AM
It will be messy. It looks like the Catalan Parliament will formally issue an UDI next week and will decree that it no longer recognizes Spain's authority to take over. In the long run Spain wins, if only because it holds the keys to the treasury and the Generalitat is utterly bankrupt, but we could be facing a lot unstability in the next weeks. What the regional police does will be key - the brass is loyal to the separatists, as is a sizable part of the agents, but are they really willing to embrace armed rebellion?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 20, 2017, 09:38:59 AM
I think the main reason that Spain will win is because the separatists lack an overwhelming mandate. That have, at best, a narrow one.

But it sounds like with the EEC and the EU and the lack of funds their hand is even weaker than that. So why are they gambling on this? They must think this will ultimately allow them to win eventually.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 20, 2017, 09:49:04 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 20, 2017, 09:38:59 AM
I think the main reason that Spain will win is because the separatists lack an overwhelming mandate. That have, at best, a narrow one.

But it sounds like with the EEC and the EU and the lack of funds their hand is even weaker than that. So why are they gambling on this? They must think this will ultimately allow them to win eventually.

It will keep them alive politically. If they surrendered it would kill the cause for a generation and the separatist coallition would collapse to infighting between moderates and radicals, but "evil Spanish repression against the mandate of the people" adds a bunch of grudges to the "we are oppressed!!!!" list, and keeps them united and mobilized.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 20, 2017, 09:56:32 AM
So it is less about achieving their actual goals and more about venal political strategerey? I mean they stand to lose a lot here...er...rather I mean Catalonia stands to lose a lot here.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 20, 2017, 09:59:42 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 20, 2017, 09:56:32 AM
So it is less about achieving their actual goals and more about venal political strategerey? I mean they stand to lose a lot here...er...rather I mean Catalonia stands to lose a lot here.

I never expect nationalists to actually care for the welfare of the people they claim to defend. It's Catalonia above all, including the Catalans.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 20, 2017, 06:23:37 PM
First poll since the referendum says that 68.6% of Catalans want regional elections, only 30% support an UDI. Separatist support for the UDI hovers around 60%, which isn't that high given that they are, well, separatists.

Poll is from the second largest Catalan paper, moderate leftist, whose editorial line in the issue is "can't we all just get along?"
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 21, 2017, 06:53:53 AM
Rajoy announcing the scope of the intervention:

- Regional elections in maximum of 6 months (preferably earlier)
- Catalan president and his cabinet are deposed. Everybody else remains in place and reports to the state.
- Parliament will remain in place and active, but any legislation put for a vote can be vetoed by the state if it's judged to be against the Constitution. Parliament can't appoint another Catalan president until the election.

This is not immediate. Has to be debated in the Senate, etc... probably going to be approved this next Friday.

I suppose in a few minutes the regional government will declare that it doesn't accept the intervention. And then the wheels are well and truly off.

EDIT: Catalan president to make a declaration at 21.00
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 21, 2017, 07:21:51 AM
That was rather mild. Let's see what the Mossos do when they have to engage separatist targets ...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 21, 2017, 02:11:37 PM
Catalan president announces that Parliament will meet to debate the answer to the suspension (no date yet, likely Tuesday some say even Monday). Doesn't directly mention an UDI, but one assumes that's what's going to be on the table.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 22, 2017, 03:55:06 AM
Prez of the Catalonian Parlament: "Applying article 155 of the Constitution is unconstitutional".   :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 22, 2017, 05:46:41 AM
Its limits have never been constitutionally tested, because it has never been used before.

I suppose the Constitutional Court will be very busy in the coming months.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 22, 2017, 07:07:08 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 22, 2017, 03:55:06 AM
Prez of the Catalonian Parlament: "Applying article 155 of the Constitution is unconstitutional".   :hmm:

How can an article of the Constitution be unconstitutional?  :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Habbaku on October 22, 2017, 05:31:20 PM
Improperly amended/added?  :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 22, 2017, 05:43:58 PM
It should be interesting to watch the Spanish government rolling in the tank, and crushing the separatist's barricade.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Ed Anger on October 22, 2017, 06:35:55 PM
One whole tank?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 22, 2017, 06:40:40 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/NKp0Pd7OGAqNW/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Ed Anger on October 22, 2017, 06:41:40 PM
This thread just got awesome.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:00:56 AM
Catalan Parliament will meet Thursday morning (one day before the intervention comes into effect) to debate their actions.

Scenarios are:

- UDI: The Generalitat no longer recognizes Madrid's authority to intervene it, and prepares to defend the regional government. Low-intensity Civil War ensues. All fun and giggles. However, Madrid wins at the end. The whole thing only serves to sow the seeds of discord for another generation. It's the "die to fight another day" option.

- UDI + Elections triggered under Spanish law: The Schrödinger option. Madrid would still intervene the autonomy since they issued an UDI, but it would be difficult to anull the elections if they are triggered using the existing Spanish law. This would give separatists control of the election timing while they prop up conflict in the streets. They could call them for mid-December and fight the intervention for a limited time, and get a renewed mandate in a "hot" election. One thing: the ruling moderate separatist party would be annihilated by the radicals in an election.

- Elections: No UDI and a regional election (the separatists would probably call them "Constituent", but who cares) would make it politically more difficult for Madrid to approve the intervention. The Generalitat could then face the election in full control of the regional power. However, the separatist radicals would certainly disapprove of a "surrender". As above, the ruling moderate party would be electorally annihilated.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:12:57 AM
Meanwhile, the number of companies that have moved their HQ away from Catalonia now totals 30% of the region's GDP. In most cases this is just symbolic - although a Catalan Republic would now be born with a much weakened corporate tax base - but the talks of an investment freeze are pretty deafening too. Retail and tourism are reporting a contraction of 20-30% compared to same month last year.

Time plays against separatists, the whole thing can easily collapse after, say, 3 consecutive months of job losses and an official recession. So my belief is that they will try to force an election ASAP.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:40:14 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on October 22, 2017, 05:31:20 PM
Improperly amended/added?  :hmm:

It has never been deployed, or clarified via legislation. So depending on whom you ask it allows Madrid to do anything it wants or nearly nothing. The thing will end up in the Constitutional Court, who going by usual timings won't rule after the whole thing has come and gone (the intervention will last 6 months tops).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 23, 2017, 06:18:22 AM
Is this the shit keeping the euro (and chf) low where the pound should be losing against it? :angry:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Caliga on October 23, 2017, 10:05:39 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on October 22, 2017, 06:35:55 PM
One whole tank?
Spain might still have the tanks they used in 'Patton' on hand. :hmm: :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 10:31:48 AM
We have 300-something Leo 2. I think that's more than even Germany currently has. Readiness is really suspect, though.

"Spanish tanks entering Barcelona" is one of the most recurrent fantasies of Catalan nationalism.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 23, 2017, 10:36:05 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 10:31:48 AM
We have 300-something Leo 2. I think that's more than even Germany currently has. Readiness is really suspect, though.

"Spanish tanks entering Barcelona" is one of the most recurrent fantasies of Catalan nationalism.

No Fifth Column? No Moors? No Requetés? Disappointed.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on October 23, 2017, 10:38:40 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 10:31:48 AM
We have 300-something Leo 2. I think that's more than even Germany currently has. Readiness is really suspect, though.

"Spanish tanks entering Barcelona" is one of the most recurrent fantasies of Catalan nationalism.

I hear Putin has offered T-26 tanks to Catalan separatists, but is demanding payment in gold :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 23, 2017, 10:46:30 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:40:14 AM
It has never been deployed, or clarified via legislation. So depending on whom you ask it allows Madrid to do anything it wants or nearly nothing. The thing will end up in the Constitutional Court, who going by usual timings won't rule after the whole thing has come and gone (the intervention will last 6 months tops).

The clause is so ambiguous, the drafters of the constitution must not have thought it would ever be used.  More of a tip of the hat to the supremacy of a national government then a procedural remedy to interfere with regional government.  And what about the bilateral agreements that were made with Catalonia to give them further autonomy since the constitution came into effect?

As you say, the constitutional court is going to have some difficult times ahead.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 10:48:32 AM
Quote from: derspiess on October 23, 2017, 10:38:40 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 10:31:48 AM
We have 300-something Leo 2. I think that's more than even Germany currently has. Readiness is really suspect, though.

"Spanish tanks entering Barcelona" is one of the most recurrent fantasies of Catalan nationalism.

I hear Putin has offered T-26 tanks to Catalan separatists, but is demanding payment in gold :(

:lol:

This does really feel like the 1930s sometimes. Hopefully it won't end so badly.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 10:57:29 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 23, 2017, 10:46:30 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:40:14 AM
It has never been deployed, or clarified via legislation. So depending on whom you ask it allows Madrid to do anything it wants or nearly nothing. The thing will end up in the Constitutional Court, who going by usual timings won't rule after the whole thing has come and gone (the intervention will last 6 months tops).

The clause is so ambiguous, the drafters of the constitution must not have thought it would ever be used.  More of a tip of the hat to the supremacy of a national government then a procedural remedy to interfere with regional government.  And what about the bilateral agreements that were made with Catalonia to give them further autonomy since the constitution came into effect?

As you say, the constitutional court is going to have some difficult times ahead.

There are no bilateral agreements anymore. That whole slew of piecemeal devolved powers were incorporated into the Statute of 2006, which itself is part of the Constitutional order - the separatists have flouted it too - but subordinated to the Constitution. These devolved powers were not originally written in the Constitution, but the approach used was "if the Constitution doesn't say it's exclusive of the central government, then it can be devolved".

But as you say, Article 155 was the kind of thing written expecting never to be used. So we're in legal Terra Incognita. It's actually copied verbatim from the German Constitution - but they have never applied it either.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 11:33:58 AM
Strong rumours that the Catalan President will ask to appear in front of the Spanish Senate to argue the Generalitat's side in the application of Article 155 - but it's not fully confirmed yet. This would go against everything he's done so far (he's always refused to appear in the Spanish Congress or Senate, always arguing for "bilateral" negotiations), and would certainly preclude an UDI this week (you don't go to the Spanish Senate after declaring yourself independent surely).

I've been disappointed too many times to hope for a deescalation, but...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 23, 2017, 11:53:59 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 10:57:29 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 23, 2017, 10:46:30 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:40:14 AM
It has never been deployed, or clarified via legislation. So depending on whom you ask it allows Madrid to do anything it wants or nearly nothing. The thing will end up in the Constitutional Court, who going by usual timings won't rule after the whole thing has come and gone (the intervention will last 6 months tops).

The clause is so ambiguous, the drafters of the constitution must not have thought it would ever be used.  More of a tip of the hat to the supremacy of a national government then a procedural remedy to interfere with regional government.  And what about the bilateral agreements that were made with Catalonia to give them further autonomy since the constitution came into effect?

As you say, the constitutional court is going to have some difficult times ahead.

There are no bilateral agreements anymore. That whole slew of piecemeal devolved powers were incorporated into the Statute of 2006, which itself is part of the Constitutional order - the separatists have flouted it too - but subordinated to the Constitution. These devolved powers were not originally written in the Constitution, but the approach used was "if the Constitution doesn't say it's exclusive of the central government, then it can be devolved".

But as you say, Article 155 was the kind of thing written expecting never to be used. So we're in legal Terra Incognita. It's actually copied verbatim from the German Constitution - but they have never applied it either.

Ah, thanks for setting me straight  :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zanza on October 23, 2017, 12:03:26 PM
The German article 37 is indeed very similar to Spain's article 155. It's called "Federal Execution" and allows the federal government to appoint a commissar who has absolute authority to enforce federal law with all necessary means.

It goes back to the Holy Roman Empire and was the way the emperor could enforce princely obligations and decisions of the Reichstag and has been a feature of every German constitution since the Middle Ages. It was last used in the Weimar Republic, infamously in the Preußenschlag of 1932, which paved the road for Hitler.

Modern Germany being ruled by law most likely means that it cannot be enacted before there was a case between the federal government and the state in the constitutional court first and there is a decision in favor of the federal government and the federal state is in contempt of the court order.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 12:40:47 PM
Quote from: Zanza on October 23, 2017, 12:03:26 PM
Modern Germany being ruled by law most likely means that it cannot be enacted before there was a case between the federal government and the state in the constitutional court first and there is a decision in favor of the federal government and the federal state is in contempt of the court order.

Well, that's certainly the case here. The Catalan government has been in contempt of the Constitutional Court for well over a month.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:49:12 PM
The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpignan.  :lol:

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on October 23, 2017, 06:58:07 PM
The difficulty stems from that gray zone where political issues are being asked to be solved constitutionally. It can never truly be, unless one political side is already so weak as to make the legal conclusion almost foreordained.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 23, 2017, 07:23:06 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:49:12 PM
The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpignan.  :lol:

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.

Nous sommes trahis!!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 23, 2017, 07:24:40 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 23, 2017, 06:58:07 PM
The difficulty stems from that gray zone where political issues are being asked to be solved constitutionally. It can never truly be, unless one political side is already so weak as to make the legal conclusion almost foreordained.

Isn't that the purpose of a constitution - to regulate how political issues will be determined within the jurisdiction governed by the constitution.  The alternative is to set aside the constitution and make new rules.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 23, 2017, 07:34:23 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:49:12 PM
The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpignan.  :lol:

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.

That's just being French hipster about things.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 23, 2017, 09:14:40 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:49:12 PM
The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpignan.  :lol:

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.

If they hosted it in Avignon, they could use the infrastructure that's already there.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 24, 2017, 05:46:19 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 23, 2017, 05:49:12 PM
The Catalan nationalist parties in southern France have offered to host a Catalan government in exile in Perpinyà.  :lol:

I'm sure the French authorities would love it.

Didn't you get the memo?  :P

As for French "Catalan nationalist parties", does it mean there is more than one?  :P It's not like they have mass support (hundreds of supporters), probably less support than Rugby League (though sometimes matching), very popular in the Roussillon Rosselló.

As for Avignon, I am waiting for Pope Francis statement on the matter. :pope:

PS: about the "parties"...

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/europe/catalogne-puigdemont-et-ses-ministres-bientot-en-exil-a-perpignan_1954882.html (http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/europe/catalogne-puigdemont-et-ses-ministres-bientot-en-exil-a-perpignan_1954882.html)

So it's two parties or associations, offering a 400 sq. metre villa for Puigdemont, plus 25 flats for the government.

QuoteÀ Perpignan, deux mouvements catalanistes s'organisent pour trouver des logements destinés à accueillir le gouvernement de Carles Puigdemont en cas d'exil forcé.

Le département français des Pyrénées-Orientales sera-t-il une zone de repli pour Carles Puigdemont? Vendredi, l'application de l'article 155 de la constitution est mise au vote au Sénat espagnol. Si une majorité de parlementaires vote "oui", Madrid prendra le contrôle de l'exécutif catalan, l'autonomie de la Catalogne sera donc suspendue, et son gouvernement destitué. Alors, pour certains militants indépendantistes catalans français, il faut faire vite et se préparer à toute éventualité. Dont celle d'une fuite forcée du chef du gouvernement vers la France, en cas de menace d'arrestation pour sédition.

"Nous avons pour l'instant 25 appartements mis à dispositions par nos sympathisants prêts à les accueillir, explique à L'Express Robert Casanovas, président du Comité d'autodétermination de la Catalogne Nord. Et une villa de 400 m² pour Puigdemont. Ils pourront y rester le temps qu'ils voudront." Selon lui, le risque d'une arrestation du chef du gouvernement régional est "élevé", c'est pourquoi son mouvement, associé au parti régionaliste Unitat Catalana, se devait de réagir. "Par solidarité avec nos frères du sud", dit-il.

"Nous sommes le même peuple"
"Cela s'inscrit dans la continuité des actions que nous avons mené jusqu'à présent, poursuit-il. Avant le référendum, nous avons fait venir les urnes et nous les avons caché chez nous. Nous avons également fait imprimer, par des entreprises amies, de nombreux bulletins pour que ce vote puisse avoir lieu. C'est normal, nous sommes le même peuple." En tout, six millions de bulletins ont été imprimés depuis la France, en coopération avec d'autres groupes tels que le parti politique Oui au Pays Catalan.

Des revendications catalanistes qui ne sont pas nées avec le référendum du 1er octobre. Formé en 2014, le Comité a mené plusieurs campagnes pour que la Catalogne espagnole et celle française puisse se réunir "comme avant le traité des Pyrénées" datant du 17e siècle.

Référendum d'autodétermination... en France
Elle a même tenté, en 2016, d'organiser une consultation dans le département avec deux questions simples: "êtes-vous favorable à une grande Catalogne regroupant la Catalogne Sud et la Catalogne Nord dans un seul État indépendant et souverain?" et "êtes-vous favorable à ce que la Catalogne Nord devienne seule un État indépendant et souverain?" Une démarche empêchée par la préfecture, par un recours en justice.

Ce combat remis à plus tard, les deux structures et leurs "centaines d'adhérents" mettent désormais toutes leurs forces dans l'aide qu'elles peuvent apporter à Barcelone. Depuis que cette chasse aux logements a été rendue publique, et reprise par France Bleu Roussillon, ils recevraient de "nombreux appels" de personnes proposant leur logement pour que les gouvernants catalans puissent y trouver refuge, d'après Robert Casanovas. Pour autant, l'initiative ne fait pas l'unanimité dans les rangs catalanistes.

Chez le parti Oui au Pays Catalan, on ne voit pas cette initiative d'un bon oeil. Le premier parti régionaliste du département, qui présente des candidats à chaque élection locale, dénonce "des gens qui vivent dans un rêve". "Ce n'est pas sérieux, réagi son président, Jordi Vera, joint par L'Express. Imprimer des bulletins et cacher des urnes faisaient partie de notre devoir de solidarité, nous y avons pris notre part. Mais anticiper un exil du gouvernement catalan, c'est ridicule."

A Barcelone, menaces de désobéissance
D'après lui, ce serait même une stratégie perdante pour la cause indépendantiste. "Vous imaginez un président fuir et laisser son peuple?", demande-t-il. Si une vague d'arrestations pour sédition de ministres catalans est ordonnée, comme ça a pu être le cas la semaine dernière pour Jordi Sanchez et Jordi Cuixart, deux dirigeants d'associations indépendantistes (ANC et Omnium), il leur faudrait l'accepter d'après Vera. Même si le délit de sédition est passible de 15 ans de prison en Espagne.

En référence, il cite le cas de Lluís Companys, ex-président de Catalogne qui avait été emprisonné en 1934 pour avoir proclamé l'indépendance de la région. "Aujourd'hui nous ne sommes pas en 1939, personne n'est menacé de mort, lance-t-il. Le combat doit être démocratique et dans les assemblées plutôt que dans la clandestinité."

À Barcelone, les événements semblent prendre cette direction. La majorité séparatiste du parlement régional catalan a annoncé la tenue d'une séance parlementaire jeudi. Le but: analyser "l'agression institutionnelle" du gouvernement conservateur de Mariano Rajoy, selon les précisions du chef de la coalition sécessionniste "Ensemble pour le oui" au parlement, Lluis Corominas. 

En cas de mise en oeuvre de mesures drastiques de la part de Madrid, les séparatistes ont menacé de faire voter une déclaration unilatérale d'indépendance au parlement catalan. Dans le même temps, l'aile la plus radicale des indépendantistes a promis d'orchestrer une campagne de "désobéissance massive" si Madrid persiste dans sa volonté de suspendre l'autonomie de la Catalogne. La lutte d'abord, donc. Si fuite il y a, ce sera pour plus tard.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 24, 2017, 07:20:03 AM
Tf;dr
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 25, 2017, 04:59:42 AM
Looks like the Catalan president will appear tomorrow in front of the Senate commission transacting the intervention to argue the regional government's side (that's part of the process but most assumed he wouldn't care). That's progress - he's refused consistently to appear in the national Congress or Senate to argue his position - although I don't expect any kind of compromise. I'm still looking at an UDI tomorrow afternoon or friday. And then pandemonium.

I hope to be wrong.

EDIT: The Catalan government saying that he won't go to that hearing. Last chance of de-escalation, gone.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 25, 2017, 05:20:58 AM
There's also a very persistent rumor that the most moderate members of the Catalan cabinet will quit before an UDI - if anything to avoid the 30 years in the slammer for open rebellion -, so if that happens in the next few hours it will be a sign of things to come.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 25, 2017, 05:30:25 AM
What's their logic there?
Isn't it better if they stay in their jobs and go on behaving like a part of Spain?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 25, 2017, 05:36:46 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 25, 2017, 05:30:25 AM
What's their logic there?
Isn't it better if they stay in their jobs and go on behaving like a part of Spain?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-uyKkPUIAAxDzm.png)

The radical separatist strategy right now is pretty much turning Catalonia into Spain's Vietnam and force international intervention. It is pure madness.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 25, 2017, 06:41:57 AM
Separatist NGOs calling for mass mobilization in front of the Catalan Parliament this Friday to "Protect the Republic"

Off to the bunker I go!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Archy on October 26, 2017, 05:46:41 AM
Such a pity, this is off course also closely followed in the Belgian press.
It could become a bit uncomfortable here for the moderate seperatists over here as well.
They support Catalan independence and are part of Belgian federal government, but the Belgian govt as part of the EU no way will recognize Catalan independence.
Curious how they're going to try to get out of this one.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 06:18:35 AM
Well, in a massive about face, it looks like the Catalan President is going to call for a regional election in exchange of freezing the intervention of the regional government. He's about to give a press conference. And looking at the anger from the radical separatist camp, it looks like it's true.

That would be massively good news. Please please be true.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 26, 2017, 06:38:33 AM
Elections, protests...don't any of you people have jobs?  I mean, even by European standards?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 08:29:43 AM
Catalan President's conference has been cancelled and he's set to appear before Parliament now. FFS this is killing me. I hope he doesn't do an about face of his about face.

The radical separatists are going ballistic, meanwhile, with the "treason!" chants. There's some spontaneous demos in front of the moderate separatist party HQ - with riot police deployed to protect it - and the seat of the Catalan Government. The revolution always devours its children.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 26, 2017, 09:29:51 AM
How long will the presidents negotiations go on?
Hope there's some clear roadmap in the next few weeks.

On the bright side... Hey. Got to improve (decrease) property prices.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 09:36:38 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 26, 2017, 09:29:51 AM
How long will the presidents negotiations go on?
Hope there's some clear roadmap in the next few weeks.

On the bright side... Hey. Got to improve (decrease) property prices.

He'll appear in half an hour, he's kept postponing his declaration the whole day. No one knows what he's going to say. It's confirmed this morning he was set to call an election, but since he's been procastrinating the announcement everybody now fears he's been swayed to the UDI side, given the massive opposition of the separatist parties and NGOs to an election.

A legal regional election would be the best possible outcome at this moment. Please, make it happen.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 10:10:43 AM
Catalan President says he's not got enough guarantees from Madrid that the autonomy wouldn't be intervened (Madrid just said it would be "flexible") and so he's not calling for elections and instead defers to Parliament. So UDI it is, tomorrow after lunch time civil war starts in Catalonia.

We'll see what the Spanish Gov has to say.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on October 26, 2017, 10:21:27 AM
Dang, sorry :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 26, 2017, 10:26:25 AM
Shit :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 26, 2017, 10:33:22 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 10:10:43 AM
Catalan President says he's not got enough guarantees from Madrid that the autonomy wouldn't be intervened (Madrid just said it would be "flexible") and so he's not calling for elections and instead defers to Parliament. So UDI it is, tomorrow after lunch time civil war starts in Catalonia.

We'll see what the Spanish Gov has to say.

Jesus H. Christ. They really want Spain to go all-the-way and claim victimhood for posterity's sake, i.e. the Irish way.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 10:45:21 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 26, 2017, 10:33:22 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 10:10:43 AM
Catalan President says he's not got enough guarantees from Madrid that the autonomy wouldn't be intervened (Madrid just said it would be "flexible") and so he's not calling for elections and instead defers to Parliament. So UDI it is, tomorrow after lunch time civil war starts in Catalonia.

We'll see what the Spanish Gov has to say.

Jesus H. Christ. They really want Spain to go all-the-way and claim victimhood for posterity's sake, i.e. the Irish way.

That's pretty much it. My only hope is that people are so tired about the whole thing that open street conflict remains relatively small-scale/short-lived.

Tomorrow we'll see how many Catalan MPs want to sign up for rebellion charges, too.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 26, 2017, 10:57:38 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 10:45:21 AM

That's pretty much it. My only hope is that people are so tired about the whole thing that open street conflict remains relatively small-scale/short-lived.

Tomorrow we'll see how many Catalan MPs want to sign up for rebellion charges, too.

If Madrid even allows that. Now the gloves are off.

Does Article 155 suspends parliamentary immunity as well?

If I were the cute hot leader of the Opposition and her caucus, I would make a very symbolic and high-profile gesture to rally opponents (and moderates) now. Something like a big declaration, announcing that they are loyal to the King and to the Spanish state and they leave this illegal, illegitimate Catalan parliament which is adamantly trying to throw Catalonia into chaos, but that she understands the popular want for autonomy and that she is willing to open discussions with the Central government when this is all over. They will need more "rational" interlocutors to save whatever remains to be saved after Puidgemont and his cronies are dealt with.

Parliamentarism is now out of the window. Puidgement is entering civil war territory. They must ensure that the least people possible are hurt - while making sure to take a stand to rally opposition. They also need to show Madrid that they are taking no part in this mockery. Staying in Parliament after an UDI, even as (Dis)loyal Opposition, helps to legitimize the whole thing.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 11:06:50 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 26, 2017, 10:57:38 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 10:45:21 AM

That's pretty much it. My only hope is that people are so tired about the whole thing that open street conflict remains relatively small-scale/short-lived.

Tomorrow we'll see how many Catalan MPs want to sign up for rebellion charges, too.

If Madrid even allows that. Now the gloves are off.

Does Article 155 suspends parliamentary immunity as well?

If I were the cute hot leader of the Opposition and her caucus, I would make a very symbolic and high-profile gesture now. Something like a big declaration, announcing that they are loyal to the King and to the Spanish state and they leave this illegal, illegitimate Catalan parliament which is adamantly trying to throw Catalonia into chaos.

They need to show Madrid that they are taking no part in this mockery. Staying in Parliament after an UDI, even as (Dis)loyal Opposition, helps to legitimize the whole thing.

The opposition has always left the building whenever the separatists have put any illegal stuff up for vote.

It's gonna be difficut to block the vote. Article 155 will go into effect in the afternoon, and the separatists will try to get the UDI in before that and then claim that Spain no longer has authority.

Regarding immunity, regional MPs have a small degree of parliamentary immunity. They can only be judged by the Spanish Supreme Court, but otherwise there's no need of a special procedure (like it happens with national MPs or members of the national Gov).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 26, 2017, 11:43:32 AM
So, what was the main line of the Leader of the Opposition's attack on Puidgemont? She seemed to be trolling him when she had the floor for her speech.

I also heard the Speaker trying to tell her to be silent on the live feed, multiple times.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 11:56:41 AM
Quote from: Drakken on October 26, 2017, 11:43:32 AM
So, what was the main line of the Leader of the Opposition's attack on Puidgemont? She seemed to be trolling him when she had the floor for her speech.

I also heard the Speaker trying to tell her to be silent on the live feed, multiple times.

"We want to vote, but a real vote, a legal vote. And you're afraid of it."

EDIT: Manuel Valls liked it https://twitter.com/manuelvalls/status/923589765336838146
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 12:20:25 PM
According to the press, the conditions that the Catalan President demanded to call for elections were a) suspension of the intervention of the Catalan autonomy b) Immediate release of the two leaders of the largest separatist NGOs charged with sedition c) suspension of legal proceedings against those involved in the independence process d) retreat of the police reinforcements that Madrid has sent to Catalonia.

b) and c) are unacceptable to me - I mean, separation of powers FFS. They are not even eligible for amnesty until after the actual trial finishes. So I'm fine with Madrid telling them to walk it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 26, 2017, 12:20:28 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 11:06:50 AM
Regarding immunity, regional MPs have a small degree of parliamentary immunity. They can only be judged by the Spanish Supreme Court, but otherwise there's no need of a special procedure (like it happens with national MPs or members of the national Gov).

The Catalan High Court can also judge them as well.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 26, 2017, 12:39:07 PM
You know, it's kind of a shame we don't have any Catalan separatists on the board for this.  :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 26, 2017, 12:42:10 PM
They are all on the OT Forum.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 12:42:48 PM
The entire opposition beating down on them today. Great interventions all around. Even the wishy-washy far lefties are laying the smackdown on the separatists (not Podemos though).

And naturally, the Catalan President has refused to take the floor to say his piece. They'll never win the battle where it counts, so they don't even fight it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Maladict on October 26, 2017, 01:18:35 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 26, 2017, 12:39:07 PM
You know, it's kind of a shame we don't have any Catalan separatists on the board for this.  :hmm:

I have two as facebook 'friends'. They have been very quiet the last few days.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 26, 2017, 03:28:04 PM
Quote from: Drakken on October 26, 2017, 10:57:38 AM
... the cute hot leader of the Opposition...

:rolleyes:  Cute?  Hot?  Look at the points on those elbows!
(https://s3.eestatic.com/2016/07/27/actualidad/Actualidad_143248662_10707781_1706x1706.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 26, 2017, 05:17:04 PM
So she's a monster in the paint, still hot.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 26, 2017, 05:23:04 PM
Not all that keen on the schnozz, which, IMHO, is the cornerstone of prettiness.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Ed Anger on October 26, 2017, 07:27:36 PM
That food looks like a pile of old dogshit.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on October 26, 2017, 08:22:28 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 12:20:25 PMb) and c) are unacceptable to me - I mean, separation of powers FFS. They are not even eligible for amnesty until after the actual trial finishes. So I'm fine with Madrid telling them to walk it.

But isn't that the crux of the matter? Countries generally do not have constitutional provisions for ceasing to exist - especially not countries which have had a history of erasing how their "territorial integrity" came about from the many hiccups of a tumultuous history. So, to reduce the matter to a question of law to be dealt with by the tribunal seems to me to want to reduce a political movement, claiming political legitimacy irreducible to a constitutional order, to be judged by the very constitutional order they renounce.

It would be something if such rejection was done in the name of fascism, or nazism - but here, it was rooted in claims of popular sovereignty tied to the question of a vote. Once Madrid absolutely refused to make it a political process, and sought the foreordained conclusions of the courts, sought to repress a referendum, what would have been the correct course of action? What is the correct course of action now?

The question at the heart of the matter is this: what would it take for a Catalan independence movement to be deemed legitimate by Madrid. If, at any given moment, the only possible answer is "nothing", then one shouldn't be surprised to see Catalans seeking political legitimacy in any way they can. And so far, it does seem that the only thing Madrid has answered is "nothing".

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 26, 2017, 09:01:37 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 26, 2017, 08:22:28 PM
But isn't that the crux of the matter? Countries generally do not have constitutional provisions for ceasing to exist - especially not countries which have had a history of erasing how their "territorial integrity" came about from the many hiccups of a tumultuous history. So, to reduce the matter to a question of law to be dealt with by the tribunal seems to me to want to reduce a political movement, claiming political legitimacy irreducible to a constitutional order, to be judged by the very constitutional order they renounce.

The problem is the separatist movement itself rather than the legal technicalities. Again the issue is they would have a point if:

#1 they had a legitimate grievance against Spain for abusing their rights. They do not. Well ok they do but ones from 40 years ago.

#2 they had an overwhelming majority of the local population on their side. They do not. They are facing strong opposition from 40+% of their own population.

QuoteThe question at the heart of the matter is this: what would it take for a Catalan independence movement to be deemed legitimate by Madrid.

Does it really matter if there is no clear majority declaring it legitimate in Catalonia itself? The separatists are trying to play political games here and try to trick people they failed to convince by trying to provoke Madrid to doing something oppressive. It is dishonest and bad for the people of Catalonia, but the Separatists clearly do not care about them since not having a firm popular mandate does not seem to bother them. They are going to provoke a crisis and then bully their opponents by calling them traitors.

An independence movement needs more than 50.000001% of the people lukewarm enough to vote for a party that is for it to some extent. And the separatists did not even get that. They have no legitimacy to make this step, IMO.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 26, 2017, 09:12:20 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 26, 2017, 10:10:43 AM
So UDI it is, tomorrow after lunch time civil war starts in Catalonia.

I thought siesta was after lunch time. So the civil war would be, what, 5ish?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on October 26, 2017, 09:33:38 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 26, 2017, 09:01:37 PM
they had a legitimate grievance against Spain for abusing their rights. They do not. Well ok they do but ones from 40 years ago.

Nations are not simply built on legitimate grievances, if only because one person's legitimate grievance is another person's trifle. There were many in 1776 who thought, not without reason, that the 13 Colonies were complaining unduly. People who oppose independence movements generally tend to cast such movement as baseless,  no?

Quote2 they had an overwhelming majority of the local population on their side. They do not. They are facing strong opposition from 40+% of their own population.

Again, either numbers mean something, or they don't. If we are only deeming legitimate movements which can rely on « overwhelming majorities », then very few movement would ever be legitimate, and a case can be made about the legitimacy of ordinary government. And if support is weak (and I believe it is), a referendum would have shown the weakness of that support. Rather, Madrid did not even want to concede a shred of legitimacy from the beginning of the process. It upped the ante considerably.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:43:30 AM
Oex the alternative is to convince the rest of the country, so we all vote to change the Constitution. This would also make getting into the EU possible.
Of course that is pretty hard to do when you sound like a whiny child talking non-stop about how you are being repressed and robbed by the ones whose support you need.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 02:45:39 AM
I'm going to spend the whole weekend curled in fetal position while my world goes up in flames, in case you don't see me posting much.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 02:49:11 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:43:30 AM
Oex the alternative is to convince the rest of the country, so we all vote to change the Constitution. This would also make getting into the EU possible.
Of course that is pretty hard to do when you sound like a whiny child talking non-stop about how you are being repressed and robbed by the ones whose support you need.

And you call non-separatist Catalans "fascists" or "botiflers" (the Catalan equivalent of "Quisling") non-stop. Or just plain deny they even exist, calling yourselves "One People" (really, don't they realize how scary that sounds?)

Historical tidbit: a "botifler" was a Catalan that supported the Napoleonic side in the Peninsular War.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 03:35:31 AM
Regarding whether separatism is legitimate or ilegitimate. To me, all discussion on how we should organize our states is valid, but if you want to flout the law you have to make a damn good case for it. 48% of the voting public isn't a mandate for flouting the law - heck it isn't enough to reform the Catalan Statute which demands a supermajority. We are in a democratic society, so the expression of separatist ideas isn't banned or impeded in any way. So if you haven't convinced enough people, then your case is probably not as good as you think.

Regarding the idea of Catalan secession in abstract, and removing all emotional context from it (I actually give two fucks about the "Spanish Nation" too). To me, the mission of the state is to give the framework where its citizens can prosper and live good lives. We won't agree on the better means to achieve that goal - and that's why we have political parties - but secession won't be conducive to better lives for Catalans, in fact it will impoverish us and sow conflict. Out of the EU, our largest companies leaving the region, etc... it's a pointless endeavour. It's Brexit but to the nth degree and without being an actual economic powerhouse like UK.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 04:18:19 AM
The separatists have formally registered the UDI in Parliament. It will be voted on in a few hours.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 27, 2017, 05:13:01 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 02:49:11 AM
Historical tidbit: a "botifler" was a Catalan that supported the Napoleonic side in the Peninsular War.

I would hate to think what their opinion is about those who supported the Bourbons in the Spanish Succession War, the first Peninsular War.  :P
There has to be a significant number, it's not like Catalans were fighting at Almansa.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 27, 2017, 06:36:45 AM
So.... A...... Friend..... Has been told they might have to spend a significant amount of time in Barcelona in the new year for work.
This increasingly seems to be not quite the good news it seemed.
Possibility of them having to demand danger pay in the way people sent to the middle east and the like do?

Sad to see sanity is not prevailing. They should all be working towards having a proper official referendum
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 27, 2017, 06:51:52 AM
This... friend... should ask himself, What would George Orwell do?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tonitrus on October 27, 2017, 06:57:01 AM
The friend probably would rather not be shot in the throat.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 27, 2017, 07:21:59 AM
I think there will be a short period of intense protesters vs. riot police action, the police will clean the streets, mostly by sliding women and elderly on their faces back to their homes.

Then of course will be months if not years of increased police presence, lots of political angst, and local economic recession, but otherwise there won't be a a Northern Ireland/Gaza Strip situation.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 08:13:14 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 27, 2017, 07:21:59 AM
I think there will be a short period of intense protesters vs. riot police action, the police will clean the streets, mostly by sliding women and elderly on their faces back to their homes.

Then of course will be months if not years of increased police presence, lots of political angst, and local economic recession, but otherwise there won't be a a Northern Ireland/Gaza Strip situation.

That's my prediction. Most violence should happen in the next few days/weeks. Tyr's friend should have nothing to fear.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 27, 2017, 08:16:26 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 02:45:39 AM
I'm going to spend the whole weekend curled in fetal position while my world goes up in flames, in case you don't see me posting much.

Any chance of living solvently in the Balearic Islands, by chance?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on October 27, 2017, 08:34:57 AM
Do it, Trudeau, do it. Recognize it!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zanza on October 27, 2017, 08:39:03 AM
So what will the central government do? Send the black helicopters to arrest the rebels?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 09:21:58 AM
Intervention has just been approved, although it won't come into effect until tomorrow. We'll see how difficult it is for Madrid to take over the administration. In the long run Madrid wins - it holds all the cards in a long fight - but I really hope it's a short one.

All the same, we'll all lose. It's so pointless.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on October 27, 2017, 09:39:36 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 26, 2017, 09:33:38 PMNations are not simply built on legitimate grievances, if only because one person's legitimate grievance is another person's trifle. There were many in 1776 who thought, not without reason, that the 13 Colonies were complaining unduly. People who oppose independence movements generally tend to cast such movement as baseless,  no?

The revolution of 1776 would have failed if it was a peaceful political movement, it only succeeded because it was a military one, and we won the war. It didn't have close to enough votes to win in an actual democratic process.

QuoteAgain, either numbers mean something, or they don't. If we are only deeming legitimate movements which can rely on « overwhelming majorities », then very few movement would ever be legitimate, and a case can be made about the legitimacy of ordinary government. And if support is weak (and I believe it is), a referendum would have shown the weakness of that support. Rather, Madrid did not even want to concede a shred of legitimacy from the beginning of the process. It upped the ante considerably.

I'm super-against any secession movement, but I think if you seek to secede from a country in a peaceful way, it is very important to have an unambiguously strong amount of support. The Catalan movement doesn't even unambiguously have 50% of the voters of Catalonia, lot along some stronger amount, which to my mind would be necessary for a legitimate and proper peaceful democratic process.

Now sure, if they start fighting a war over it 40% of the populace who are really passionate and willing to die over it, with a much smaller number willing to fight against it, and a broad center who wants to stay out of it, then the passionate 40% might win a bloody campaign of rioting and etc against the central government.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 09:52:35 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 27, 2017, 09:39:36 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 26, 2017, 09:33:38 PMNations are not simply built on legitimate grievances, if only because one person's legitimate grievance is another person's trifle. There were many in 1776 who thought, not without reason, that the 13 Colonies were complaining unduly. People who oppose independence movements generally tend to cast such movement as baseless,  no?

The revolution of 1776 would have failed if it was a peaceful political movement, it only succeeded because it was a military one, and we won the war. It didn't have close to enough votes to win in an actual democratic process.

More to the point is that there was no democratic process in place to find out, nor would Britain have tolerated the result anyway, at that time.

That is why the comparison to the American war for independence is a apples and oranges comparison.

Why not compare it to something more relevant? Maybe India's efforts for independence (not that those were not without bloodshed as well) or Canada's practical break from being ruled from London?
Quote

QuoteAgain, either numbers mean something, or they don't. If we are only deeming legitimate movements which can rely on « overwhelming majorities », then very few movement would ever be legitimate, and a case can be made about the legitimacy of ordinary government. And if support is weak (and I believe it is), a referendum would have shown the weakness of that support. Rather, Madrid did not even want to concede a shred of legitimacy from the beginning of the process. It upped the ante considerably.

I'm super-against any secession movement, but I think if you seek to secede from a country in a peaceful way, it is very important to have an unambiguously strong amount of support. The Catalan movement doesn't even unambiguously have 50% of the voters of Catalonia, lot along some stronger amount, which to my mind would be necessary for a legitimate and proper peaceful democratic process.

Now sure, if they start fighting a war over it 40% of the populace who are really passionate and willing to die over it, with a much smaller number willing to fight against it, and a broad center who wants to stay out of it, then the passionate 40% might win a bloody campaign of rioting and etc against the central government.

Yeah, that is pretty much how I feel.

Spain is a democratic nation with a established rule of law and reasonable assurances of representation, at least as far as I can tell.

There is zero justification for any kind of violent need to express a political viewpoint that has basically failed to be realized through the essentially democratic political systems already in place.

The separatist failed when trying to use the system in place to achieve their goals, so now they are trying to use violence instead. That is only justified when you can show that the non-violent process was not actually democratic to begin with.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 10:10:01 AM
The US State Department - through Heather Nauert (:wub:)  - backs Spain's territorial integrity and supports efforts to guarantee it.

God, never thought it could feel good to have the backing of the Trump administration. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on October 27, 2017, 10:16:26 AM
These fucking racist assholes.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 27, 2017, 10:17:37 AM
So when do the Serbs start building the rape camps?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 27, 2017, 10:22:00 AM
How are the other Spanish speaking countries siding?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 10:26:32 AM
Quote from: HVC on October 27, 2017, 10:22:00 AM
How are the other Spanish speaking countries siding?

Most said they wouldn't back a Catalan UDI, but that was ex ante. We'll see in the coming hours I guess. Spain maintains good relations with most of them and has strong economic links with many Latin American nations, I would be really surprised if anyone recognized the Republic, besides Venezuela.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 10:52:41 AM
When did the separatists use violence?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 27, 2017, 11:31:13 AM
So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zoupa on October 27, 2017, 11:52:17 AM
Lolwut? How do you get there from what he wrote?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Rex Francorum on October 27, 2017, 12:20:30 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 10:52:41 AM
When did the separatists use violence?

I may not get the whole picture, but wasn't it the Spanish government who used violence?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 12:21:37 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 27, 2017, 11:31:13 AM
So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

The US was on fairly dubious ground in using force to keep the South within the union.  There was no referendum, but it seems there was little doubt that there was substantial support for succession.

The only real moral ground for fighting the south was the argument that slavery was immoral (and that the slaves had no voice in whether or not to secede), but that of course was not the ground that Lincoln originally claimed in the war.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tonitrus on October 27, 2017, 12:25:04 PM
The Confederacy was the first to use force.  :sleep:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 12:42:36 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 10:52:41 AM
When did the separatists use violence?

They sieged police forces during a judicial raid for hours. Destroyed 3 vehicles and stole the weapons inside (assault rifles). This incident is why 2 of the leaders are in jail now (only ones so far).

There were minor encounters with police forces during the referendum and as a result a handful stand accused of assaulting a police officer.

Finally they coerced businesses and workers during the strike, and forcefully blocked roads.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 27, 2017, 12:51:59 PM
The war was declared because of Fort Sumter. Not sure what is dubious about that.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 27, 2017, 01:16:57 PM
It's located in South Carolina.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 01:21:36 PM
Not evacuating Fort Sumter was an act of military aggression by the North.  Or something. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 01:24:03 PM
So, absent Fort Sumter, Lincoln was just going to let the south walk?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 01:27:26 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 01:24:03 PM
So, absent Fort Sumter, Lincoln was just going to let the south walk?

No, but the Union needed time to get its shit together and muster/train regiments.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 01:31:03 PM
Leave it to a bunch of Americans to turn talk of secession into talk of the American Civil War  :P

Among the pack of measures just announced by the Spanish president is an unexpected dissolution of the Catalan Parliament and elections on December 21th - the earliest legal time possible. This limits the intervention to less than 2 months. I'm not sure they'll be able to stabilize the situation in time for a "normal" election.

But this limits the timeframe of the intervention significantly. I like it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:35:12 PM
The only explanation I can come up with is they hope moderate nationalists are coming to their senses and want to limit the economic damage.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 01:37:04 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:35:12 PM
The only explanation I can come up with is they hope moderate nationalists are coming to their senses and want to limit the economic damage.

There's a bunch of moderates willing to vote for an "okay, let's not get carried away" nationalist party, but there's no viable party with this profile right now. All historic nationalist parties have embraced separatism.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 27, 2017, 01:39:30 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 01:31:03 PM
Leave it to a bunch of Americans to turn talk of secession into talk of the American Civil War  :P

Well in some sense you can call BB an American (norteamericano) but not really accurate for this discussion. :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 01:39:57 PM
So what happens next?  Will Spain be able to hold elections?  Will the nationalist parties participate in elections?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:41:59 PM
Why wouldn't they?

Spain has only outlawed one party in its recent history, because it was the political wing of ETA. There are so far no deaths in this sad affaire.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 01:45:22 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:41:59 PM
Why wouldn't they?

Spain has only outlawed one party in its recent history, because it was the political wing of ETA. There are so far no deaths in this sad affaire.

Well following the separatist line of thinking...

They're independent.  What Madrid says is now immaterial.  The existing Catalan government can announce that they are still the Catalan government, and they will hold elections on their own timetable.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:48:06 PM
The existing Catalan government will be in jail by then.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 01:52:30 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:41:59 PM
Why wouldn't they?

Spain has only outlawed one party in its recent history, because it was the political wing of ETA. There are so far no deaths in this sad affaire.

According to Spanish law, parties have 20 days from now to register their candidacies. So the separatists have little time to decide. I think they'll boycott them because it would be a tacit admission that the UDI is worth nothing. If they boycott them we'll enter the "parallel governments" scenario, which is a really shitty one. It's a risky gamble, although in the end Madrid always wins - the loyalist Generalitat would be the only one with the capabilities to exert actual power.

At the end of the day, though, I agree on the principle of the thing: "we are only here to purge the rebels and bring the Generalitat back to lawful government. Once we're done, it goes back to the Catalans".
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:55:50 PM
Let's be real for a second here. A government without money is no government at all. There is no "parallel government" scenario unless there's actual blood on the streets.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 01:56:24 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:48:06 PM
The existing Catalan government will be in jail by then.

My understanding is that Madrid has been trying very hard not to go down that route (for good reason).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 01:57:28 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 27, 2017, 09:39:36 AMThe revolution of 1776 would have failed if it was a peaceful political movement, it only succeeded because it was a military one, and we won the war. It didn't have close to enough votes to win in an actual democratic process. 

I think if you seek to secede from a country in a peaceful way, it is very important to have an unambiguously strong amount of support. The Catalan movement doesn't even unambiguously have 50% of the voters of Catalonia, lot along some stronger amount, which to my mind would be necessary for a legitimate and proper peaceful democratic process. 

I agree with all of this. What I disagree with is that the separatist movement of Catalunya is somehow illegitimate because it can't spontaneously generate an elusive "overwhelming majority" (hence the allusion to American Independence). 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 01:57:50 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 12:21:37 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 27, 2017, 11:31:13 AM
So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

The US was on fairly dubious ground in using force to keep the South within the union.  There was no referendum, but it seems there was little doubt that there was substantial support for succession.

Oh?

What percentage of Southerners do you think supported secession?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 01:58:39 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 01:56:24 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:48:06 PM
The existing Catalan government will be in jail by then.

My understanding is that Madrid has been trying very hard not to go down that route (for good reason).

They have been very careful, but it's really hard to look to the other side when there's open rebellion.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 01:59:30 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 01:57:28 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 27, 2017, 09:39:36 AMThe revolution of 1776 would have failed if it was a peaceful political movement, it only succeeded because it was a military one, and we won the war. It didn't have close to enough votes to win in an actual democratic process. 

I think if you seek to secede from a country in a peaceful way, it is very important to have an unambiguously strong amount of support. The Catalan movement doesn't even unambiguously have 50% of the voters of Catalonia, lot along some stronger amount, which to my mind would be necessary for a legitimate and proper peaceful democratic process. 

I agree with all of this. What I disagree with is that the separatist movement of Catalunya is somehow illegitimate because it can't spontaneously generate an elusive "overwhelming majority" (hence the allusion to American Independence). 

What a bizarre notion - that actual support from the people involved apparently isn't important when deciding the legitimacy of killing people to secure a political change you cannot achieve via democratic means.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 02:01:08 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 27, 2017, 11:31:13 AM
So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

It's an interesting topic, but I don't want it to hijack this thread with another american-centric discussion.

Obviously, as this thread reveals, people read independence movements from the sort of precedents they have appropriated - American Civil War, Quebec independence, Brexit/Scotland.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:02:01 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 01:56:24 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:48:06 PM
The existing Catalan government will be in jail by then.

My understanding is that Madrid has been trying very hard not to go down that route (for good reason).

Yes, and even now they are minimizing prosecutions. On Monday prominent members of both Govern and the Parlament will be indicted for rebellion (which carries up to 30 years). Individual MPs will be left alone for now, apparently.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:03:01 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 01:57:50 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 12:21:37 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 27, 2017, 11:31:13 AM
So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

The US was on fairly dubious ground in using force to keep the South within the union.  There was no referendum, but it seems there was little doubt that there was substantial support for succession.

Oh?

What percentage of Southerners do you think supported secession?

I don't know, but it does appear a majority, if not a significant majority, did.  There were some areas that of course did not (West Virginia, parts of eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama), but the majority of the south went happily along.

Majority of the white population of course.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 27, 2017, 02:03:26 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 01:45:22 PM
They're independent.  What Madrid says is now immaterial.  The existing Catalan government can announce that they are still the Catalan government, and they will hold elections on their own timetable.

They are not. No sovereign country is currently recognizing them, so they hold no sovereignty in international law. In fact, both US and Canada today said they recognized Spain as remaining united. Independence is now immaterial, unless they kick Spain out and control their territory, that is.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:04:20 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:03:01 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 01:57:50 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 12:21:37 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 27, 2017, 11:31:13 AM
So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

The US was on fairly dubious ground in using force to keep the South within the union.  There was no referendum, but it seems there was little doubt that there was substantial support for succession.

Oh?

What percentage of Southerners do you think supported secession?

I don't know, but it does appear a majority, if not a significant majority, did.  There were some areas that of course did not (West Virginia, parts of eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama), but the majority of the south went happily along.

Majority of the white population of course.

Interesting.

Is there some reason you are arguing that we should ignore the wishes of the non-white population when it comes to determining the legitimacy of a secession movement on the basis of the opinions of the people who live in the areas in question?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 02:06:21 PM
The Catalan Government has been inside the Generalitat "executing" the mandate of independence. I guess they will come out soon with a flurry of measures, including non-acceptance of the intervention. Whatever else they mandate (i.e. seizing of infrastructures) will dictate how much shit hits the fan.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 27, 2017, 02:07:03 PM
Obvious it had to happen but... :lol:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Republic_(2017)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 27, 2017, 02:07:08 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 02:06:21 PM
The Catalan Government has been inside the Generalitat "executing" the mandate of independence. I guess they will come out soon with a flurry of measures, including non-acceptance of the intervention. Whatever else they mandate (i.e. seizing of infrastructures) will dictate how much shit hits the fan.

This is all so crazy. :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:07:33 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:55:50 PM
Let's be real for a second here. A government without money is no government at all. There is no "parallel government" scenario unless there's actual blood on the streets.

I really don't think it's that easy.

I don't think Madrid can suddenly stop sending money to Catalunya.  They would hardly want schools, hospitals, and police to suddenly close up(I don't know the details of exactly what powers have been devolved to the regional government, but you get the idea).  If they did, you run the major risk that support for independence will go up, not down.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:09:33 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 02:06:21 PM
The Catalan Government has been inside the Generalitat "executing" the mandate of independence. I guess they will come out soon with a flurry of measures, including non-acceptance of the intervention. Whatever else they mandate (i.e. seizing of infrastructures) will dictate how much shit hits the fan.

The problem is, of course, that Rajoy sent the elite units of the gendarmerie to critical spots (eg Barcelona's airport). If they try to take it there will be blood.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:10:00 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:04:20 PM
Interesting.

Is there some reason you are arguing that we should ignore the wishes of the non-white population when it comes to determining the legitimacy of a secession movement on the basis of the opinions of the people who live in the areas in question?

Is there some reason that you are ignoring what I said about slavery?

Quote from: Barrister
The only real moral ground for fighting the south was the argument that slavery was immoral (and that the slaves had no voice in whether or not to secede), but that of course was not the ground that Lincoln originally claimed in the war.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:11:48 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:07:33 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:55:50 PM
Let's be real for a second here. A government without money is no government at all. There is no "parallel government" scenario unless there's actual blood on the streets.

I really don't think it's that easy.

I don't think Madrid can suddenly stop sending money to Catalunya.  They would hardly want schools, hospitals, and police to suddenly close up(I don't know the details of exactly what powers have been devolved to the regional government, but you get the idea).  If they did, you run the major risk that support for independence will go up, not down.

It's not all or nothing. Each item has to be approved and released.

If the regional police, for example, decide not to obey orders, you can cut them off completely, while still paying for doctors and medicines.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:14:34 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:07:33 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:55:50 PM
Let's be real for a second here. A government without money is no government at all. There is no "parallel government" scenario unless there's actual blood on the streets.

I really don't think it's that easy.

I don't think Madrid can suddenly stop sending money to Catalunya.  They would hardly want schools, hospitals, and police to suddenly close up(I don't know the details of exactly what powers have been devolved to the regional government, but you get the idea).  If they did, you run the major risk that support for independence will go up, not down.

The point is that Madrid is the government with the money to keep all those things running.  Not the separatists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 01:59:30 PM
What a bizarre notion - that actual support from the people involved apparently isn't important when deciding the legitimacy of killing people to secure a political change you cannot achieve via democratic means.

It's not a bizarre notion at all. Rather, it's one well supported by historical precedents. Legitimacy is a political process, and has historically drawn its strength on much more than a numerical assessment of support from opinion polls or, for that matter, the letter of constitutional order.  All sorts of revolutions have established themselves with limited groups of people claiming to speak on behalf of "the Nation" or "The State". Some now enjoy little legitimacy in the eyes of liberal democracies (Cuban, for instance), and some which now enjoy tremendous legitimacy (American, French). Support, in that sense, is thus terribly vague. Not entirely "merely" rhetorical, but not entirely spontaneously "popular" either.

The question which seems to divide people on the forum (and more largely whenever the topic is brought up) is whether current independence movements within liberal democracies can ever be justified. Some seem to answer "no", on the basis that oppression is the only possible legitimate cause; others seem to answer "yes", on the basis that there are such things as national identity which cannot be subsumed under the exercise of democratic rights.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 27, 2017, 02:16:10 PM
In any case, CSA secession is irrelevant to this present case. They broke out because they didn't want a Northern President who was an Abolitionist.

As soon as Lincoln was elected, they started to secede, as their congresspeople had promised time and time again during the campaign. Despite this, the South massively voted for Breckinridge against Lincoln. If not a direct referendum on secession, that was pretty much a mandate for disunion which became a foregone conclusion as soon as the first State ratified secession.



Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:17:20 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:11:48 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:07:33 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:55:50 PM
Let's be real for a second here. A government without money is no government at all. There is no "parallel government" scenario unless there's actual blood on the streets.

I really don't think it's that easy.

I don't think Madrid can suddenly stop sending money to Catalunya.  They would hardly want schools, hospitals, and police to suddenly close up(I don't know the details of exactly what powers have been devolved to the regional government, but you get the idea).  If they did, you run the major risk that support for independence will go up, not down.

It's not all or nothing. Each item has to be approved and released.

If the regional police, for example, decide not to obey orders, you can cut them off completely, while still paying for doctors and medicines.

That... doesn't sound right to me.

I mean in Canada taxes are collected by the Federal government through Revenue Canada, even if they are provincial taxes.  The Government of Canada then transfers the money to the Government of Alberta, and it is the GOA that pays my salary.

If Alberta declared a UDI tomorrow, Canada would have no means to pay my salary.  I'm sure they could come up with something over time, but not in the short term.

If Madrid is still writing all of the cheques for Catalan public servants that doesn't sound very much like autonomy.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:18:40 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:14:34 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:07:33 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:55:50 PM
Let's be real for a second here. A government without money is no government at all. There is no "parallel government" scenario unless there's actual blood on the streets.

I really don't think it's that easy.

I don't think Madrid can suddenly stop sending money to Catalunya.  They would hardly want schools, hospitals, and police to suddenly close up(I don't know the details of exactly what powers have been devolved to the regional government, but you get the idea).  If they did, you run the major risk that support for independence will go up, not down.

The point is that Madrid is the government with the money to keep all those things running.  Not the separatists.

I understand that.

But if Madrid shuts off the money to Catalunya and essential government services start to close, do you think people will blame the separatists, or Madrid?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:20:08 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:17:20 PM
That... doesn't sound right to me.

I mean in Canada taxes are collected by the Federal government through Revenue Canada, even if they are provincial taxes.  The Government of Canada then transfers the money to the Government of Alberta, and it is the GOA that pays my salary.

If Alberta declared a UDI tomorrow, Canada would have no means to pay my salary.  I'm sure they could come up with something over time, but not in the short term.

If Madrid is still writing all of the cheques for Catalan public servants that doesn't sound very much like autonomy.

Re-read the thread. That's how it worked here until this mess started. Last month the Generalitat decided it was not going to report on their expenses to the central government, and as a result the Government intervened their finances. After triggering art 155 I assume control will be even tighter.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: mongers on October 27, 2017, 02:29:00 PM
Maybe there's more legitimacy to our Wessex nationalist cause than I guessed.  :bowler:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:34:25 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:18:40 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:14:34 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:07:33 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 01:55:50 PM
Let's be real for a second here. A government without money is no government at all. There is no "parallel government" scenario unless there's actual blood on the streets.

I really don't think it's that easy.

I don't think Madrid can suddenly stop sending money to Catalunya.  They would hardly want schools, hospitals, and police to suddenly close up(I don't know the details of exactly what powers have been devolved to the regional government, but you get the idea).  If they did, you run the major risk that support for independence will go up, not down.

The point is that Madrid is the government with the money to keep all those things running.  Not the separatists.

I understand that.

But if Madrid shuts off the money to Catalunya and essential government services start to close, do you think people will blame the separatists, or Madrid?


I agree.  But why would they do that.  The federal government now rules in Catalunya until new elections are held - which is the point.

The separatists can proclaim a parallel government all they want - but they have no funds.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:34:40 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:10:00 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:04:20 PM
Interesting.

Is there some reason you are arguing that we should ignore the wishes of the non-white population when it comes to determining the legitimacy of a secession movement on the basis of the opinions of the people who live in the areas in question?

Is there some reason that you are ignoring what I said about slavery?

Quote from: Barrister
The only real moral ground for fighting the south was the argument that slavery was immoral (and that the slaves had no voice in whether or not to secede), but that of course was not the ground that Lincoln originally claimed in the war.

That isn't relevant to your claim that the North had no legitimate grounds to use violence against the south, because the south had popular support.

I don't think there was overwhelming popular support at all (which is the part I am criticizing), unless for some bizarre reason you decide that the opinion of blacks don't count. Can you at least conceded that maybe 3 out 5 could count?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:37:19 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:20:08 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:17:20 PM
That... doesn't sound right to me.

I mean in Canada taxes are collected by the Federal government through Revenue Canada, even if they are provincial taxes.  The Government of Canada then transfers the money to the Government of Alberta, and it is the GOA that pays my salary.

If Alberta declared a UDI tomorrow, Canada would have no means to pay my salary.  I'm sure they could come up with something over time, but not in the short term.

If Madrid is still writing all of the cheques for Catalan public servants that doesn't sound very much like autonomy.

Re-read the thread. That's how it worked here until this mess started. Last month the Generalitat decided it was not going to report on their expenses to the central government, and as a result the Government intervened their finances. After triggering art 155 I assume control will be even tighter.


Yeah, BB is mixing up the taxing authority Canadian Provinces have with what is happening in Spain.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:44:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:34:40 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:10:00 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:04:20 PM
Interesting.

Is there some reason you are arguing that we should ignore the wishes of the non-white population when it comes to determining the legitimacy of a secession movement on the basis of the opinions of the people who live in the areas in question?

Is there some reason that you are ignoring what I said about slavery?

Quote from: Barrister
The only real moral ground for fighting the south was the argument that slavery was immoral (and that the slaves had no voice in whether or not to secede), but that of course was not the ground that Lincoln originally claimed in the war.

That isn't relevant to your claim that the North had no legitimate grounds to use violence against the south, because the south had popular support.

I don't think there was overwhelming popular support at all (which is the part I am criticizing), unless for some bizarre reason you decide that the opinion of blacks don't count. Can you at least conceded that maybe 3 out 5 could count?

Under the system of slavery as it existed at the time, the opinion of slaves did not count.  They were property, not people.

The Union would have had every legitimacy in the world if it said "it is monstrous to hold human beings as property.  They should be given their full voice, and we're prepared to go to war to see this happen."

But that's not how it started.  Lincoln's casus belli was to "preserve the union", but it seemed pretty clear that the majority of the south the majority of voters supported secession.

Look this isn't meant as some criticism - you guys got there in the end.  But viewing what is going on in Spain through the lens of the Civil War is somewhat flawed, because "preserving the union" isn't, by itself, a very good basis to deny independence to a region.

And I'm pretty sure I never used the word "overwhelming".  If I did, and that is the word you are objecting to, I cheerfully withdraw it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:46:52 PM
Also, and at the behest of the two biggest Catalonian banks, every major bank in Spain signed an agreement last week vowing not to forward any revenue to a hypothetical Catalonian government.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 27, 2017, 02:50:15 PM
So....are we talking actual prison terms for the Catalan government here?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 27, 2017, 02:50:35 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 27, 2017, 02:50:15 PM
So....are we talking actual prison terms for the Catalan government here?

Yep.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:52:14 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:46:52 PM
Also, and at the behest of the two biggest Catalonian banks, every major bank in Spain signed an agreement last week vowing not to forward any revenue to a hypothetical Catalonian government.

Well, that is it then isn't it.  No internal funding, no external funding - what plan do the separatists have? 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 27, 2017, 02:53:12 PM
What does King Felipe say about all this? Is he calling up the troops?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:53:38 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:52:14 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:46:52 PM
Also, and at the behest of the two biggest Catalonian banks, every major bank in Spain signed an agreement last week vowing not to forward any revenue to a hypothetical Catalonian government.

Well, that is it then isn't it.  No internal funding, no external funding - what plan do the separatists have?

I'm sure there's some Russian banks that would be happy to lend... :shifty:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:53:52 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 27, 2017, 02:50:15 PM
So....are we talking actual prison terms for the Catalan government here?

The CBC is reporting that the prosecutorial office in Madrid is preparing to bring a number of charges of treason.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:54:09 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 27, 2017, 02:50:15 PM
So....are we talking actual prison terms for the Catalan government here?

Yes.

Rumor has it that what tipped the balance yesterday was that Puigdemont could not get Rajoy to guarantee that he would have immunity from prosecution.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: mongers on October 27, 2017, 02:55:45 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:52:14 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:46:52 PM
Also, and at the behest of the two biggest Catalonian banks, every major bank in Spain signed an agreement last week vowing not to forward any revenue to a hypothetical Catalonian government.

Well, that is it then isn't it.  No internal funding, no external funding - what plan do the separatists have?

Blood, broken-bones and bodies in the streets to sanctify the revolution.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:56:34 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:53:52 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 27, 2017, 02:50:15 PM
So....are we talking actual prison terms for the Catalan government here?

The CBC is reporting that the prosecutorial office in Madrid is preparing to bring a number of charges of treason.

Rebellion. Treason has to involve a foreign country and is judged by military tribunal, IIRC
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:57:11 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:44:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:34:40 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:10:00 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:04:20 PM
Interesting.

Is there some reason you are arguing that we should ignore the wishes of the non-white population when it comes to determining the legitimacy of a secession movement on the basis of the opinions of the people who live in the areas in question?

Is there some reason that you are ignoring what I said about slavery?

Quote from: Barrister
The only real moral ground for fighting the south was the argument that slavery was immoral (and that the slaves had no voice in whether or not to secede), but that of course was not the ground that Lincoln originally claimed in the war.

That isn't relevant to your claim that the North had no legitimate grounds to use violence against the south, because the south had popular support.

I don't think there was overwhelming popular support at all (which is the part I am criticizing), unless for some bizarre reason you decide that the opinion of blacks don't count. Can you at least conceded that maybe 3 out 5 could count?

Under the system of slavery as it existed at the time, the opinion of slaves did not count.  They were property, not people.

We are talking about the concept of legitimacy, which is not a legal concept at all, essentially by definition. A system where some portion of the people deny basic rights to another portion of the people, and then claim legitimacy on the basis of "democracy" is the very definition of a *illegitimate* democartic system.

Quote

The Union would have had every legitimacy in the world if it said "it is monstrous to hold human beings as property.  They should be given their full voice, and we're prepared to go to war to see this happen."

I actually think that is basically what happened. It was not that direct of course, but the South seceeded BECAUSE a large enough portion of the greater population had said essentially that abolition was coming. Allvia the democratic process, and all while that same process denied the rights of people who would have a rather vested interest in the question the right to express their opinion.

Indeed, it was actually worse than that, since the system in place actually made it so that to the extent they WERE counted, they were counted in a manner that gave their 60% voice to the very people who used it to try to keep them enslaved.

And *despite* all that, the writing for slavery was still on the wall. The south seceeded because they could read that writing as well as anyone else.

It was always about slavery, start to finish.

And the North went to war to preserve the very Union that had just basically said "Yeah, slavery is going to end at some point, and certainly will not be allowed to spread further".

Quote

But that's not how it started.  Lincoln's casus belli was to "preserve the union", but it seemed pretty clear that the majority of the south the majority of voters supported secession.

...because they wanted to own slaves.

Lincoln's cassus belli was to perserve a Union that had just made it clear that slavery was not going to be tolerated forever. You cannot separate those things.
Quote

Look this isn't meant as some criticism - you guys got there in the end.  But viewing what is going on in Spain through the lens of the Civil War is somewhat flawed, because "preserving the union" isn't, by itself, a very good basis to deny independence to a region.

Preserving the union is a damn good reason when the only reason the union needs to be preserved at all is because some people have realized that chattel slavery cannot survive within it.
Quote
And I'm pretty sure I never used the word "overwhelming".  If I did, and that is the word you are objecting to, I cheerfully withdraw it.

My point is simply that there was no real "popular support" for secession unless you take the rather bizarre position that black people ought not to be considered in that calculus for what is considered popular support.

I've always thought that was an odd position to take - that if you enslave people, and then ask the non-slaves what they think about that, why would you fucking care what they think?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 02:57:16 PM
The company I consult with is noticing an uptick in debit/credit card declines in Catalonia.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:57:39 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 27, 2017, 02:55:45 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:52:14 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 02:46:52 PM
Also, and at the behest of the two biggest Catalonian banks, every major bank in Spain signed an agreement last week vowing not to forward any revenue to a hypothetical Catalonian government.

Well, that is it then isn't it.  No internal funding, no external funding - what plan do the separatists have?

Blood, broken-bones and bodies in the streets to sanctify the revolution.

Based on Iormlund's other post - more like a sacrifice to a vain attempt by one man to avoid the consequences of his actions. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 02:59:33 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 02:53:52 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 27, 2017, 02:50:15 PM
So....are we talking actual prison terms for the Catalan government here?

The CBC is reporting that the prosecutorial office in Madrid is preparing to bring a number of charges of treason.

Rebellion charges. 30 years in the slammer.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 27, 2017, 03:01:18 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 02:57:16 PM
The company I consult with is noticing an uptick in debit/credit card declines in Catalonia.

www.kkkshop.com
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 03:11:05 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 02:57:16 PM
The company I consult with is noticing an uptick in debit/credit card declines in Catalonia.

Can you ellaborate? Like today or for the past weeks, or...? Is it a large uptick?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on October 27, 2017, 03:12:15 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 03:11:05 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 02:57:16 PM
The company I consult with is noticing an uptick in debit/credit card declines in Catalonia.

Can you ellaborate? Like today or for the past weeks, or...? Is it a large uptick?

Go get some cash and stock up on the essentials  :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 03:14:34 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 27, 2017, 02:57:11 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 02:44:05 PM
The Union would have had every legitimacy in the world if it said "it is monstrous to hold human beings as property.  They should be given their full voice, and we're prepared to go to war to see this happen."

I actually think that is basically what happened. It was not that direct of course, but the South seceeded BECAUSE a large enough portion of the greater population had said essentially that abolition was coming. Allvia the democratic process, and all while that same process denied the rights of people who would have a rather vested interest in the question the right to express their opinion.

Indeed, it was actually worse than that, since the system in place actually made it so that to the extent they WERE counted, they were counted in a manner that gave their 60% voice to the very people who used it to try to keep them enslaved.

And *despite* all that, the writing for slavery was still on the wall. The south seceeded because they could read that writing as well as anyone else.

It was always about slavery, start to finish.

And the North went to war to preserve the very Union that had just basically said "Yeah, slavery is going to end at some point, and certainly will not be allowed to spread further".

Quote from: Abraham Lincoln
If I could save the Union without freeing any slave, I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves, I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone, I would also do that. What I do about slavery and the colored race, I do because I believe it helps to save the Union; and what I forbear, I forbear because I do not believe it would help to save the Union

Perhaps you're right - that the Union was always going to free the slaves and what Lincoln said above was sophistry.  Lincoln did sign the Emancipation Proclamation a few months after writing the above words.

But his words above, and at other times, were pretty clear on the subject.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 27, 2017, 03:19:44 PM
Can we have a new thread for the ACW stuff please?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 03:22:00 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 27, 2017, 03:19:44 PM
Can we have a new thread for the ACW stuff please?

This is Languish.

ACW hijacks are what we do.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 27, 2017, 03:25:55 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 27, 2017, 02:29:00 PM
Maybe there's more legitimacy to our Wessex nationalist cause than I guessed.  :bowler:

I'm afraid France will only use it as a bargaining chip for the Brexit negotiations.   :frog:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 27, 2017, 03:38:25 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on October 27, 2017, 03:25:55 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 27, 2017, 02:29:00 PM
Maybe there's more legitimacy to our Wessex nationalist cause than I guessed.  :bowler:

I'm afraid France will only use it as a bargaining chip for the Brexit negotiations.   :frog:

Fuck France.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 03:40:45 PM
The Catalan Government has finished a 5-hour meeting without no decree being publicly issued, nor replying to Spain's approval of the intervention. Strange.

It's for the best, I guess.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 27, 2017, 03:42:19 PM
The separatists didn't seem to have planned very well for this.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 03:48:19 PM
There are calls for boycotting the elections from CUP (extreme left separatists). Separatists have 20 days to decide whether they participate in elections of a state they don't recognize anymore, or risk losing all major power centers to unionists (mass media, education, police). And we will see for sure incidents like the ones on Oct 1, but now in reverse, as separatists try to close down voting centers.

It's a complete reverse of the referendum situation. It seems the central government had planned this very carefully, while the separatists are adrift.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 27, 2017, 03:49:36 PM
HVC, master of litotes. :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 27, 2017, 03:51:45 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on October 27, 2017, 03:49:36 PM
HVC, master of litotes. :)

:P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 03:56:20 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on October 27, 2017, 03:49:36 PM
HVC, master of litotes. :)

I learned a new word today. :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 27, 2017, 04:02:15 PM
Glad I was able to help. :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 27, 2017, 04:04:04 PM
You'll probably have to look it up again next time you hear it 20 years from now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 27, 2017, 04:11:57 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 01:57:28 PM
I agree with all of this. What I disagree with is that the separatist movement of Catalunya is somehow illegitimate because it can't spontaneously generate an elusive "overwhelming majority" (hence the allusion to American Independence).

No separatist, racist, or neo-Nazi movement is ever illegitimate, because popular support is irrelevant to legitimacy.  Groups gain legitimacy by declaring themselves legitimate.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 27, 2017, 04:28:07 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 27, 2017, 03:38:25 PM
Fuck France.

You really have gone native.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 27, 2017, 04:32:28 PM
The head of Catalonian police accepts his dismissal by Rajoy and steps down.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 04:33:28 PM
The Director of the Catalan regional police - dismissed by Madrid's government after the intervention - has issued a letter where he accepts his firing. This is hugely good news.

EDIT: Iormlund'd
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 05:17:55 PM
Canada officially refuses to recognize the Catalan Republic.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Habbaku on October 27, 2017, 05:20:15 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 05:17:55 PM
Canada officially refuses to recognize the Catalan Republic.

Well, time to pack it in now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 05:23:16 PM
Funnily Spanish Congress passed CETA right after passing the intervention of Catalonia  :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 05:38:22 PM
Quote from: grumbler on October 27, 2017, 04:11:57 PM
No separatist, racist, or neo-Nazi movement is ever illegitimate, because popular support is irrelevant to legitimacy.  Groups gain legitimacy by declaring themselves legitimate.

Legitimacy is too rich a concept to be reduced to such unproductive caricatures.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 27, 2017, 06:55:32 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 27, 2017, 03:38:25 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on October 27, 2017, 03:25:55 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 27, 2017, 02:29:00 PM
Maybe there's more legitimacy to our Wessex nationalist cause than I guessed.  :bowler:

I'm afraid France will only use it as a bargaining chip for the Brexit negotiations.   :frog:

Fuck France.

:wub:  :hug:

Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 05:17:55 PM
Canada officially refuses to recognize the Catalan Republic.

The official statement was something like "Um. We are. Um. Awfully sorry. Um. Spain is a real good friend and um. We are really sorry we really don't mean to do this. But um. Under current circumstances. Um. So so sorry. Please don't hate us. We love you we do. Please don't hate us. But um. Yeah. No. We can't. Say you're um. Independent so. Um. Very sorry. We are terrible we know"?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on October 27, 2017, 07:45:01 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 05:38:22 PM
Legitimacy is too rich a concept to be reduced to such unproductive caricatures.

Legitimacy is too important a concept to be reduced to such vague platitudes.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Ed Anger on October 27, 2017, 07:57:42 PM
Quote
DPRK News Service

@DPRK_News
·
10h
SPANISH CONQUISTADORS WARNED: Catalonia is free democratic socialist republic.

MARSHAL KIM JONG-UN'S WORDS ARE BACKED BY NUCLEAR WEAPONS!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 27, 2017, 08:02:50 PM
For Catalonia to be legitimate, wouldn't Spain and France need to get hitched?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 11:56:49 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 03:11:05 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 02:57:16 PM
The company I consult with is noticing an uptick in debit/credit card declines in Catalonia.

Can you ellaborate? Like today or for the past weeks, or...? Is it a large uptick?

Sorry, not a huge uptick but statistically enough to make note of, and only for the American card issuers (financial institutions) we work with.

edit: uptick started Friday morning. Memo came out late afternoon but I'm seeing the increase starting mid--morning local time.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 28, 2017, 01:43:54 AM
Quote from: mongers on October 27, 2017, 02:29:00 PM
Maybe there's more legitimacy to our Wessex nationalist cause than I guessed.  :bowler:

Raise the dragon standard at the Vale of the White Horse and seize any Danes you encounter  :bowler:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on October 28, 2017, 01:59:22 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 27, 2017, 04:28:07 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 27, 2017, 03:38:25 PM
Fuck France.

You really have gone native.

I can read in the papers about all that pollution they send over the channel to poison residents of London!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 02:55:49 AM
Quote from: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 11:56:49 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2017, 03:11:05 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 27, 2017, 02:57:16 PM
The company I consult with is noticing an uptick in debit/credit card declines in Catalonia.

Can you ellaborate? Like today or for the past weeks, or...? Is it a large uptick?

Sorry, not a huge uptick but statistically enough to make note of, and only for the American card issuers (financial institutions) we work with.

edit: uptick started Friday morning. Memo came out late afternoon but I'm seeing the increase starting mid--morning local time.

Thanks! interesting. I don't think there's many people - besides tourists - using American issued cards over here though.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 04:44:16 AM
All very calm today. No demos, no riots. Deafening silence from the separatist government. They didn't even come out last night to salute the crowds celebrating independence in front of the regional government. The Spanish flag still flies on the building.

This is weird. I hope it's not the calm before the storm.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 06:38:01 AM
Catalan President giving a speech in one hour. Leaks claim that he'll reject his dismissal, possibly call for a "Constituent" election so the mess will go on. It was too good to be true.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: mongers on October 28, 2017, 06:50:14 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on October 28, 2017, 01:43:54 AM
Quote from: mongers on October 27, 2017, 02:29:00 PM
Maybe there's more legitimacy to our Wessex nationalist cause than I guessed.  :bowler:

Raise the dragon standard at the Vale of the White Horse and seize any Danes you encounter  :bowler:

:hmm:

Food for thought, maybe a new venture.  :D
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 07:43:33 AM
Catalan President refuses his dismissal in a recorded message from an unknown location in Girona. He's going full Bin Laden now.

Calls for "peaceful and democratic opposition" to Article 155. This hopefully means no rioting while Madrid takes over. Which is good. Possibly means separatists will call to boycott the December election, which is not good.

Honestly, the feeling I get is that they really don't know what to do right now, since his message was really vague and didn't contain a single actionable item.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 28, 2017, 09:33:32 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 27, 2017, 02:01:08 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 27, 2017, 11:31:13 AM
So Oex would you agree the Confederacy was justified in seceding, and Lincoln was wrong to use force to defend the union?

It's an interesting topic, but I don't want it to hijack this thread with another american-centric discussion.

Obviously, as this thread reveals, people read independence movements from the sort of precedents they have appropriated - American Civil War, Quebec independence, Brexit/Scotland.

All precedents have some relevance.  Before committing to a position, it makes some sense to consider the broader implications of that position, for precedents both past and present.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Oexmelin on October 28, 2017, 10:12:18 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 28, 2017, 09:33:32 AM
All precedents have some relevance.  Before committing to a position, it makes some sense to consider the broader implications of that position, for precedents both past and present.

Feel free to begin a different thread if you think I haven't.  :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 28, 2017, 01:05:57 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 03:14:34 PM

Perhaps you're right - that the Union was always going to free the slaves and what Lincoln said above was sophistry.  Lincoln did sign the Emancipation Proclamation a few months after writing the above words.

But his words above, and at other times, were pretty clear on the subject.

My God. That quote has a context. Don't fall for this neo-Confederate trick of taking quotes and events out of context to advance their version of events. I don't how you can be so profoundly ignorant of Lincoln and the Civil War after we have talked about it so much to the point it is a meme but if you want to discuss it further we can start another thread.

In any case this case well illustrates a rare example where a secessionist movement does have a strong mandate ( in some, not all, of the states anyway) but profoundly fails the first test so in my eyes was not legitimate.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 28, 2017, 02:04:48 PM
I'm sure it is for the best but I'm finding this anti-climax quite unsatisfying. Boring, even. :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: dps on October 28, 2017, 02:14:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 28, 2017, 01:05:57 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 27, 2017, 03:14:34 PM

Perhaps you're right - that the Union was always going to free the slaves and what Lincoln said above was sophistry.  Lincoln did sign the Emancipation Proclamation a few months after writing the above words.

But his words above, and at other times, were pretty clear on the subject.

My God. That quote has a context. Don't fall for this neo-Confederate trick of taking quotes and events out of context to advance their version of events. I don't how you can be so profoundly ignorant of Lincoln and the Civil War after we have talked about it so much to the point it is a meme but if you want to discuss it further we can start another thread.

In any case this case well illustrates a rare example where a secessionist movement does have a strong mandate ( in some, not all, of the states anyway) but profoundly fails the first test so in my eyes was not legitimate.

Yes.  What Lincoln was saying was that his war goals were to end the succession and preserve the Union, and that the issue of slavery was not necessarily particularly relevant to those goals.  As for as his political goals, though, as opposed to his war goals, he was still an Abolitionist.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Habbaku on October 28, 2017, 02:40:32 PM
Quote from: dps on October 28, 2017, 02:14:53 PM
Yes.  What Lincoln was saying was that his war goals were to end the succession...

Can you provide proof that Lincoln was a secret Stuart supporter and wanted to kill Edward VII?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 02:49:51 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 28, 2017, 02:04:48 PM
I'm sure it is for the best but I'm finding this anti-climax quite unsatisfying. Boring, even. :hmm:

It's far, far too quiet. They must be up to something surely? They declared independence and then... did nothing.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 28, 2017, 04:03:18 PM
Quite funny to see on BBC news, the reporter standing in one of Barcelona's main squares.....where it looks like any other day.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 04:22:13 PM
Right now it feels like the separatists just wanted to say they are an independent country, get all drunk celebrating and then go home, without actually caring about the things independent countries are supposed to do in order to actually be independent countries. Had I known I'd have let them do the UDI back in 2014.

I guess it won't be so easy though.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 28, 2017, 04:28:32 PM
It's Daylight Saving Time night, with one hour more to sleep and/or to party so they are having fun I guess before the real business starts on Monday.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 05:19:40 PM
Madrid hasn't even bothered arresting anyone either. No revolution on the weekend I guess.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Drakken on October 28, 2017, 05:28:22 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 04:22:13 PM
Right now it feels like the separatists just wanted to say they are an independent country, get all drunk celebrating and then go home, without actually caring about the things independent countries are supposed to do in order to actually be independent countries. Had I known I'd have let them do the UDI back in 2014.

I guess it won't be so easy though.

Typical of first-world secessionist movements - thinking that all is in pink-glasses. All they need to do is to declare independence and they can go home, because naturally the other side will just bow down, give them everything they ask, and everyone will recognize them. Because... reasons.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Monoriu on October 28, 2017, 05:50:22 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 07:43:33 AM
Catalan President refuses his dismissal in a recorded message from an unknown location in Girona. He's going full Bin Laden now.


You mean ex-President.  Traitor has been fired, I heard :contract:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 29, 2017, 03:45:50 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 05:19:40 PM
Madrid hasn't even bothered arresting anyone either. No revolution on the weekend I guess.

Really doing wonders for the "manana" stereotype. :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 29, 2017, 06:16:06 AM
Rajoy has reverted to his natural state of giving his enemies rope, while he enjoys a cigar and a drink.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 07:34:53 AM
Huge Unionist rally in Barcelona this morning.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 29, 2017, 08:25:48 AM
And very good speeches by Borrel (socialist) and Frutos (communist).

I hate to say this, but this country really needs someone young who can speak in complete sentences. As cute as Arrimada is, she's nowhere near close to Borrell (surely the most qualified president this country never had).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 08:34:36 AM
Yeah, both speeches were very good, both by men over 70. The downfall in the quality of politicians in this country has been pretty steep.

Arrimadas is actually a good politician (she's done a great job of moving Cs towards the political center in Catalonia) but a so-so speaker.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 29, 2017, 12:51:38 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 29, 2017, 03:45:50 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 05:19:40 PM
Madrid hasn't even bothered arresting anyone either. No revolution on the weekend I guess.

Really doing wonders for the "manana" stereotype. :lol:

I bet if there were some fucking animals to set on fire or throw out of buildings, their greasy asses would would already be in the counter-revolution purge phase.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 05:07:01 PM
Tomorrow the men from Madrid will start taking over the Catalan administration. Given the fact that the takeover of the Catalan police has so far gone seamlessly, it seems that there won't be much resistance. A week ago we were looking at a "masses of protesters surrounding Catalan government buildings" scenario, but this threat seems to have evaporated. We'll see how it goes.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 05:08:07 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 29, 2017, 12:51:38 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 29, 2017, 03:45:50 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 28, 2017, 05:19:40 PM
Madrid hasn't even bothered arresting anyone either. No revolution on the weekend I guess.

Really doing wonders for the "manana" stereotype. :lol:

I bet if there were some fucking animals to set on fire or throw out of buildings, their greasy asses would would already be in the counter-revolution purge phase.

As long as there are a bunch of sunburnt Americans paying to watch it, sure.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: mongers on October 29, 2017, 05:10:37 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 05:07:01 PM
Tomorrow the men from Madrid will start taking over the Catalan administration. Given the fact that the takeover of the Catalan police has so far gone seamlessly, it seems that there won't be much resistance. A week ago we were looking at a "masses of protesters surrounding Catalan government buildings" scenario, but this threat seems to have evaporated.

Hopeful signs, but don't rule out the depths of stupidity that the hotheads are willing to plunge to.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 29, 2017, 05:16:25 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 29, 2017, 05:10:37 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 05:07:01 PM
Tomorrow the men from Madrid will start taking over the Catalan administration. Given the fact that the takeover of the Catalan police has so far gone seamlessly, it seems that there won't be much resistance. A week ago we were looking at a "masses of protesters surrounding Catalan government buildings" scenario, but this threat seems to have evaporated.

Hopeful signs, but don't rule out the depths of stupidity that the hotheads are willing to plunge to.

I think the word is to keep it peaceful. Not for the good of the people, obviously. It's because the law says violence is required for a conviction when accused of rebellion.

However the precedent is against the coup organizers (no actual violence needed, just threat of), and the law also states that disrupting communications counts as violence (and roads were blocked during the strike).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 05:37:39 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 29, 2017, 05:16:25 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 29, 2017, 05:10:37 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 05:07:01 PM
Tomorrow the men from Madrid will start taking over the Catalan administration. Given the fact that the takeover of the Catalan police has so far gone seamlessly, it seems that there won't be much resistance. A week ago we were looking at a "masses of protesters surrounding Catalan government buildings" scenario, but this threat seems to have evaporated.

Hopeful signs, but don't rule out the depths of stupidity that the hotheads are willing to plunge to.

I think the word is to keep it peaceful. Not for the good of the people, obviously. It's because the law says violence is required for a conviction when accused of rebellion.

However the precedent is against the coup organizers (no actual violence needed, just threat of), and the law also states that disrupting communications counts as violence (and roads were blocked during the strike).

Don't think that strike can be counted as an act of rebellion though. It was legally convened.

But yeah, the whole UDI has been so low-profile that it smacks of trying to avoid the full weight of the law. The fact the Catalan government hasn't even attempted to issue a single decree is telling. Using the state apparatus - and its implicit coercive force - to prop up the rebellion counts as violent rebellion too.

Probably jailing the leaders of the separatist NGOs for sedition was a wake up call for separatists. Madrid wasn't going to fool around this time.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 29, 2017, 05:39:47 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 05:08:07 PM
As long as there are a bunch of sunburnt Americans paying to watch it, sure.

Nice try, but you can't pin thousands of greaseball blood feasts a year on the tourists.  Dumbass Moops.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 29, 2017, 05:58:50 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 05:37:39 PM
Don't think that strike can be counted as an act of rebellion though. It was legally convened.

But yeah, the whole UDI has been so low-profile that it smacks of trying to avoid the full weight of the law. The fact the Catalan government hasn't even attempted to issue a single decree is telling. Using the state apparatus - and its implicit coercive force - to prop up the rebellion counts as violent rebellion too.

Probably jailing the leaders of the separatist NGOs for sedition was a wake up call for separatists. Madrid wasn't going to fool around this time.

The strike itself was technically illegal. Politics are specifically excluded from the list of reasons to call for one. Plus, I doubt blocking highways is part of any legal strike.

And yeah, I think the biggest factors here were the quick collapse of Catalonia's economic framework and the hearings in the Audiencia. Trapero himself looked thoroughly defeated after the ordeal.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 06:01:23 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 29, 2017, 05:58:50 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 05:37:39 PM
Don't think that strike can be counted as an act of rebellion though. It was legally convened.

But yeah, the whole UDI has been so low-profile that it smacks of trying to avoid the full weight of the law. The fact the Catalan government hasn't even attempted to issue a single decree is telling. Using the state apparatus - and its implicit coercive force - to prop up the rebellion counts as violent rebellion too.

Probably jailing the leaders of the separatist NGOs for sedition was a wake up call for separatists. Madrid wasn't going to fool around this time.

The strike itself was technically illegal. Politics are specifically excluded from the list of reasons to call for one. Plus, I doubt blocking highways is part of any legal strike.

And yeah, I think the biggest factors here were the quick collapse of Catalonia's economic framework and the hearings in the Audiencia. Trapero himself looked thoroughly defeated after the ordeal.

Road blockings are illegal, but happen in every single strike and the organizers aren't charged with rebellion. Technically the strike was convened to protest for economic reasons - it was a lie of course, it was a political strike, but I can't find the angle where you could consider it an act of rebellion.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 29, 2017, 06:09:22 PM
Rebellion necessitates that violence happens as a result. Any violence. I'm not a lawyer, but I would guess that if roads are forcefully blocked during an illegal strike that you organized as part of the process, it should definitely count.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 29, 2017, 06:17:32 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 29, 2017, 06:09:22 PM
Rebellion necessitates that violence happens as a result. Any violence. I'm not a lawyer, but I would guess that if roads are forcefully blocked during an illegal strike that you organized as part of the process, it should definitely count.

They got all major trade unions to back the strike. I'm not a lawyer either but I'm not sure how considering that strike part of a rebellion is going to fly in court.

At the end of the day, it was just a protest. No material objective was achieved - unlike, say, celebrating the referendum or approving the provisional Catalan constitution.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Archy on October 30, 2017, 01:21:22 AM
Our federal asylum secretary noted this weekend that puigmont can apply for asylum in Belgium. Our prime Minister and Spanish PP weren't amused. So silly how this influences Belgian politics also for some cheap points scoring.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 05:28:52 AM
No incidents so far in the take over. Some members of the government went and took their personal belongings and left, saying that they don't consider themselves dismissed but acting very much like they are. The Head of the Catalan Parliament says that only the Catalan President can dissolve it, but then revokes all sessions this week, tacitly admitting its dissolution.

The separatist camp has also stopped talking about boycotting the election, either. They will probably say this is another "plebiscite" to "confirm" the UDI and continue the charade. After some scary days, this is finally turning into farce.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 06:56:40 AM
Spain's Prosecutor General presents rebellion charges against the former Catalan government and the Bureau of the Parliament. It leaves the door open to a downgrade to sedition (half the prison time), but that's going to be up to the judge.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 07:35:56 AM
Quote from: Archy on October 30, 2017, 01:21:22 AM
Our federal asylum secretary noted this weekend that puigmont can apply for asylum in Belgium. Our prime Minister and Spanish PP weren't amused. So silly how this influences Belgian politics also for some cheap points scoring.

Puigdemont has travelled to Belgium to meet the Flemish nationalists in the Belgian government  :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on October 30, 2017, 07:38:45 AM
Going for a rebel spam approach?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 07:51:57 AM
Meanwhile, the two largest separatist parties confirm they will participate in the December election, to "validate the Republic".
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 30, 2017, 08:15:46 AM
So what happens if the separatists win the election?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 08:22:06 AM
Quote from: HVC on October 30, 2017, 08:15:46 AM
So what happens if the separatists win the election?

They get to run the regional government, doing all the things the regional government can do. It's highly unlikely they'll get over 50% of the vote anyway (nationalist parties have never broke that ceiling in past 15 years or so), but they benefit from the current electoral law and the division between the unionist parties.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 30, 2017, 08:36:18 AM
So they won't take this as a mandate and start the stupid roller coaster all over again?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 09:06:03 AM
Quote from: HVC on October 30, 2017, 08:36:18 AM
So they won't take this as a mandate and start the stupid roller coaster all over again?

Recent polling is not good to them. The situation is so fluid and chaotic that things can change, of course, but I don't think a "Let's make another UDI! This time for realsies!" separatist platform has any chance to get 50% of the vote and thus claim that mandate. Their moderates are running for the hills.

We'll see in the next hours/days if the moderates are able to coalesce into a solid platform.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 09:08:40 AM
So it looks like that the Catalan ex-president and 5 of his cabinet are indeed trying to get political asylum in Belgium. Hilarious. Can they really avoid extradition to another EU nation? Are the belgians really willing to get embroiled in this mess?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 30, 2017, 09:43:04 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 09:08:40 AM
So it looks like that the Catalan ex-president and 5 of his cabinet are indeed trying to get political asylum in Belgium. Hilarious. Can they really avoid extradition to another EU nation? Are the belgians really willing to get embroiled in this mess?

Apparently Belgian law allows for extradition requests to be contested in regular courts, it is being speculated that that's what they're aiming for.

In any case if I was an independentist voter in Catalonia I would feel so inmensely betrayed by now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 09:46:21 AM
Quote from: The Larch on October 30, 2017, 09:43:04 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 09:08:40 AM
So it looks like that the Catalan ex-president and 5 of his cabinet are indeed trying to get political asylum in Belgium. Hilarious. Can they really avoid extradition to another EU nation? Are the belgians really willing to get embroiled in this mess?

Apparently Belgian law allows for extradition requests to be contested in regular courts, it is being speculated that that's what they're aiming for.

In any case if I was an independentist voter in Catalonia I would feel so inmensely betrayed by now.

Government in exile! VIVE LA RESISTANCE!

It's so fucking ridiculous. I wish I didn't live here so I could laugh at it all.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on October 30, 2017, 10:31:12 AM
If you deeply believe in Catalan independence you dare the authorities to prosecute you.  You make your trial a showcase on how oppressive Spain is.  Hell maybe you go on a hunger strike while in jail.  That's the kind of shit that just might win independence for your country.

Running away to Belgium makes you look like an opportunist.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 10:39:18 AM
I wonder what the other guys charged with rebellion that stayed behind are thinking now. Or the two guys already in jail.

For starters Puigdemont has made the case for the prosecution re: preventive imprisonment much easier given the accredited flight risk.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 30, 2017, 10:51:49 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 09, 2017, 09:22:36 AM
Marx was right.  1936-39 was tragedy, this is farce.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 30, 2017, 12:27:50 PM
Quote from: The Larch on October 30, 2017, 09:43:04 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 09:08:40 AM
So it looks like that the Catalan ex-president and 5 of his cabinet are indeed trying to get political asylum in Belgium. Hilarious. Can they really avoid extradition to another EU nation? Are the belgians really willing to get embroiled in this mess?

Apparently Belgian law allows for extradition requests to be contested in regular courts, it is being speculated that that's what they're aiming for.

In any case if I was an independentist voter in Catalonia I would feel so inmensely betrayed by now.

Belgium counts as part of the Frankish kingdom (Tournais was the first capital after all) so it's good with "we're not Hispanian! vibe".

:P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 30, 2017, 12:40:55 PM
Oh hell no.  Merovingian revivalism must be nipped in the bud. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on October 30, 2017, 01:34:37 PM
Gotta say I have props for Rajoy, he just outright refused to let them secede, reject their referendum and etc. I wish more Western countries would stand up thusly to separatists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Archy on October 30, 2017, 02:01:53 PM
And the farce comes over here :lol:
I think Spain-Belgium will detoriate a bit.
I think our francophone classical liberal prime Minister is not amused by his coalition partner.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Solmyr on October 30, 2017, 02:18:39 PM
Where's Charles V when you need him.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 02:24:13 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on October 30, 2017, 02:18:39 PM
Where's Charles V when you need him.


We still keep these around for parades  :lol:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.20m.es%2Fimg2%2Frecortes%2F2017%2F10%2F12%2F559372-944-629.jpg%3Fv%3D20171012143339&hash=be5315f535e245580b1d4812652d576ef55e27d8)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zanza on October 30, 2017, 03:02:06 PM
I am in Madrid at the moment and there is a noticeable amount of Spanish flags on balconies etc. I wonder if this is a reaction to the current crisis.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 30, 2017, 03:08:23 PM
Quote from: Zanza on October 30, 2017, 03:02:06 PM
I am in Madrid at the moment and there is a noticeable amount of Spanish flags on balconies etc. I wonder if this is a reaction to the current crisis.

It is.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Archy on October 30, 2017, 03:17:49 PM
As long as Philip doesn't send the Duke of Alva over here I'm happy.  ;)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 30, 2017, 03:31:36 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 30, 2017, 01:34:37 PM
Gotta say I have props for Rajoy, he just outright refused to let them secede, reject their referendum and etc. I wish more Western countries would stand up thusly to separatists.

And do it the tactful way:  with prosecutors.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 30, 2017, 04:18:09 PM
Apparently Puigdemont has retained the services of a lawyer that managed to stop the extradition process of a former ETA terrorist.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 30, 2017, 04:46:45 PM
Quote from: Archy on October 30, 2017, 03:17:49 PM
As long as Philip doesn't send the Duke of Alva over here I'm happy.  ;)

The current one is not really very imposing.  :P

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.20m.es%2Fimg2%2Frecortes%2F2014%2F11%2F20%2F198679-944-1415.jpg&hash=77a9924a1768cacec219159e054466a833eaabc4)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 30, 2017, 04:58:57 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 30, 2017, 04:18:09 PM
Apparently Puigdemont has retained the services of a lawyer that managed to stop the extradition process of a former ETA terrorist.

Better at choosing lawyers than at seceding?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Maladict on October 30, 2017, 06:42:14 PM
Quote from: Archy on October 30, 2017, 03:17:49 PM
As long as Philip doesn't send the Duke of Alva over here I'm happy.  ;)

What about the duke of Parma? He is Charles V  :ph34r:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Carlos,_Duke_of_Parma
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 04:52:19 AM
Puigdemont to give a press conference in Brussels at 12.30. Rumors are all over the place, but I guess the separatist play here is try to create a Government in Exile to keep separatists mobilized until the December election.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Archy on October 31, 2017, 06:19:07 AM
Our prime minister issued a prohibitionto talk with Puigdemont to the Flemish seperatists in his government.  :D
He's indeed a bit nervous.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Solmyr on October 31, 2017, 06:41:44 AM
Quote from: Maladict on October 30, 2017, 06:42:14 PM
Quote from: Archy on October 30, 2017, 03:17:49 PM
As long as Philip doesn't send the Duke of Alva over here I'm happy.  ;)

What about the duke of Parma? He is Charles V  :ph34r:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Carlos,_Duke_of_Parma

Not enough Habsburg lip.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 31, 2017, 09:49:36 AM
The Habsburgs lost their lip at some point. I guess when the fall of Spanish Habsburgs meant they no longer had to keep marrying their first cousins.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 31, 2017, 09:50:46 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 04:52:19 AM
Puigdemont to give a press conference in Brussels at 12.30. Rumors are all over the place, but I guess the separatist play here is try to create a Government in Exile to keep separatists mobilized until the December election.

Well at least it is from Bussels and not Moscow.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 10:58:22 AM
Well he didn't say anything noteworthy. Doesn't believe he'll get a fair trial in Spain, will remain in Brussels until he feels there's guarantees in place. He wants to draw attention of the European Union to Spain's "abuses" and the Catalan conflict. Tiresome.

First polls are giving separatists 43-46% in the upcoming regional vote - which is in line with what they've been getting since 2012, and that's what they'll get in December. We can keep this charade until the end of times, further rubbishing Catalonia's social and economic future, or we can try to get some kind of arrangement, a legal one.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 12:40:10 PM
Spanish Supreme Court and the Audiencia Nacional summon the deposed Catalan Government and the Bureau of Parliament to answer the charges of rebellion/sedition this thursday and friday. Those will be two "fun" days...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 31, 2017, 12:44:00 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 10:58:22 AM
Well he didn't say anything noteworthy. Doesn't believe he'll get a fair trial in Spain, will remain in Brussels until he feels there's guarantees in place. He wants to draw attention of the European Union to Spain's "abuses" and the Catalan conflict. Tiresome.

First polls are giving separatists 43-46% in the upcoming regional vote - which is in line with what they've been getting since 2012, and that's what they'll get in December. We can keep this charade until the end of times, further rubbishing Catalonia's social and economic future, or we can try to get some kind of arrangement, a legal one.

If they want to separate because they're a wealthy region than an economic downfall as more companies leave while temper the separatist feelings. I mean if I still had a multination company in Catalonia I'd be moving out as fast as I can.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 12:46:57 PM
Quote from: HVC on October 31, 2017, 12:44:00 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 10:58:22 AM
Well he didn't say anything noteworthy. Doesn't believe he'll get a fair trial in Spain, will remain in Brussels until he feels there's guarantees in place. He wants to draw attention of the European Union to Spain's "abuses" and the Catalan conflict. Tiresome.

First polls are giving separatists 43-46% in the upcoming regional vote - which is in line with what they've been getting since 2012, and that's what they'll get in December. We can keep this charade until the end of times, further rubbishing Catalonia's social and economic future, or we can try to get some kind of arrangement, a legal one.

If they want to separate because they're a wealthy region than an economic downfall as more companies leave while temper the separatist feelings. I mean if I still had a multination company in Catalonia I'd be moving out as fast as I can.

Oh, 6 out of the 7 largest companies headquartered in Barcelona have already made the switch. And hundreds of smaller ones.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 31, 2017, 12:48:05 PM
are they just moving headquarters or are they pulling out production and jobs too?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Habbaku on October 31, 2017, 12:50:04 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 12:46:57 PM
Quote from: HVC on October 31, 2017, 12:44:00 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 10:58:22 AM
Well he didn't say anything noteworthy. Doesn't believe he'll get a fair trial in Spain, will remain in Brussels until he feels there's guarantees in place. He wants to draw attention of the European Union to Spain's "abuses" and the Catalan conflict. Tiresome.

First polls are giving separatists 43-46% in the upcoming regional vote - which is in line with what they've been getting since 2012, and that's what they'll get in December. We can keep this charade until the end of times, further rubbishing Catalonia's social and economic future, or we can try to get some kind of arrangement, a legal one.

If they want to separate because they're a wealthy region than an economic downfall as more companies leave while temper the separatist feelings. I mean if I still had a multination company in Catalonia I'd be moving out as fast as I can.

Oh, 6 out of the 7 largest companies headquartered in Barcelona have already made the switch. And hundreds of smaller ones.

Is it likely they'll either be able to switch back or start switching back if the separatism movement collapses in the next weeks?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 12:54:58 PM
Quote from: HVC on October 31, 2017, 12:48:05 PM
are they just moving headquarters or are they pulling out production and jobs too?

Just HQs. Moving the actual production isn't something that you do in such short notice, and probably won't happen unless independence becomes a real possiblity. But investment freeze is another matter, and it's happening.

Quote from: Habbaku on October 31, 2017, 12:50:04 PM
Is it likely they'll either be able to switch back or start switching back if the separatism movement collapses in the next weeks?

Some probably will. But others won't. We will emerge of this with noticeable economic damage, no two ways about it. We've become an unreliable destination for investment
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 12:57:54 PM
You know what I miss? A week where NOTHING happens. This has been a fucking roller coaster for two months already, and it's going to stay that way until January at the very least (unless unionists win a decisive victory in December, but it's going to be another 50/50, like it's been since forever).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Habbaku on October 31, 2017, 12:58:24 PM
Time to invest in Catalonian companies at cut-rate prices, then.  :menace:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 31, 2017, 01:15:48 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 12:57:54 PM
You know what I miss? A week where NOTHING happens. This has been a fucking roller coaster for two months already, and it's going to stay that way until January at the very least (unless unionists win a decisive victory in December, but it's going to be another 50/50, like it's been since forever).

You're a very emotional people, you know.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 31, 2017, 01:32:55 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 12:46:57 PM
Oh, 6 out of the 7 largest companies headquartered in Barcelona have already made the switch. And hundreds of smaller ones.

Celed, Grifols moved their financial center to Ireland after the first referendum. While they are still technically headquartered in Barcelona, their money is not there anymore.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 01, 2017, 04:56:42 AM
Tomorrow begin the preliminary hearings for the members of the Catalan government and Parliament that stand accused of rebellion (20 in total). It's more or less confirmed that Puigdemont will remain in Belgium and become a fugitive, others might join him, while a few have confirmed that they will show up at the hearings. A couple of the councilors that fled with Puigdemont to Brussels were seen arriving at Barcelona yesterday, which everybody assumes means they will show up.

Given the flight risk, it s very likely that the judge will concede preventive imprisonment for nearly all of them (looks like the councilor that quit the government before the UDI will be spared). This will heat up things again, considerably, but I really can't see how the judge can refuse a jail order at this point if the prosecution asks for it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 02, 2017, 01:44:21 PM
The deposed Catalan cabinet ends up in preventive jail (barring the councilor that quit on the eve of the UDI). The members of the Bureau of the Catalan Parliament had their hearing adjourned and allowed to return home, but under police surveillance.

An European arrest order has been issued shortly for those that didn't show up today.

Things will heat up in the following days. There's already crowds in Barcelona. I wish it could've been avoided - I honestly do - but I just can't see how they could have avoided jail with all the stuff in their platter, particularly after 5 of them fled to Belgium.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on November 02, 2017, 01:52:53 PM
I spoke to a Catalan guy about this yesterday.
He says the UDI law was voted on but not actually formally signed off and passed, so technically they should get off the treason conviction, though they still have the vote in their back pocket?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on November 02, 2017, 01:53:36 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 31, 2017, 12:54:58 PM
Quote from: HVC on October 31, 2017, 12:48:05 PM
are they just moving headquarters or are they pulling out production and jobs too?

Just HQs. Moving the actual production isn't something that you do in such short notice, and probably won't happen unless independence becomes a real possiblity. But investment freeze is another matter, and it's happening.

Quote from: Habbaku on October 31, 2017, 12:50:04 PM
Is it likely they'll either be able to switch back or start switching back if the separatism movement collapses in the next weeks?

Some probably will. But others won't. We will emerge of this with noticeable economic damage, no two ways about it. We've become an unreliable destination for investment

It's okay, you will survive. There is always someone else willing to invest money.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 02, 2017, 02:03:15 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 02, 2017, 01:52:53 PM
I spoke to a Catalan guy about this yesterday.
He says the UDI law was voted on but not actually formally signed off and passed, so technically they should get off the treason conviction, though they still have the vote in their back pocket?

It's beyond my understanding, but most neutral lawyery types believe that rebellion will end up being downgraded to sedition or conspiracy for rebellion.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 02, 2017, 02:08:35 PM
I was wrong about the arrest order for the Belgium lot. The judge hasn't ruled on that yet. Tomorrow.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 02, 2017, 03:44:01 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 02, 2017, 02:03:15 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 02, 2017, 01:52:53 PM
I spoke to a Catalan guy about this yesterday.
He says the UDI law was voted on but not actually formally signed off and passed, so technically they should get off the treason conviction, though they still have the vote in their back pocket?

It's beyond my understanding, but most neutral lawyery types believe that rebellion will end up being downgraded to sedition or conspiracy for rebellion.

This is why lawyers always end up running revolutions.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 04:44:10 AM
Catalonia leads job losses in Spain for the month of October. Oh joy. October is usually a bad month for employment given the end of the tourist season, but it's been worse than in recent years.

Just did some napkin math:

Catalonia's job loss jumped +120% versus the one experienced in October 2016.

Spain job loss jumped +24% vs the one in October 2016. If you take Catalonia out of the picture, it's a mere +8%


Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on November 03, 2017, 09:01:50 AM
Relax. Things will be fine.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:20:14 AM
I've been hyperventilating for the past 6 weeks.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on November 03, 2017, 09:28:35 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:20:14 AM
I've been hyperventilating for the past 6 weeks.

To the point that it has almost become a meme.  :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on November 03, 2017, 09:37:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:20:14 AM
I've been hyperventilating for the past 6 weeks.

& I have no idea why. This is capitalism, there are growth & contraction cycles.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Monoriu on November 03, 2017, 09:47:23 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:20:14 AM
I've been hyperventilating for the past 6 weeks.

If you are that worried, move. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on November 03, 2017, 09:48:52 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:20:14 AM
I've been hyperventilating for the past 6 weeks.
Hey. Its not as bad for you as it is for Brits.
Pretty easy for you to go to Madrid or elsewhere should the shit truly hit the fan.
And look. We are still alive. Sort of.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 03, 2017, 09:50:23 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 03, 2017, 09:47:23 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:20:14 AM
I've been hyperventilating for the past 6 weeks.

If you are that worried, move. 

But that would hurt him financially :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Monoriu on November 03, 2017, 09:55:45 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 03, 2017, 09:50:23 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 03, 2017, 09:47:23 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:20:14 AM
I've been hyperventilating for the past 6 weeks.

If you are that worried, move. 

But that would hurt him financially :hmm:

Political risk affects financial returns. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:56:07 AM
I work for a Barcelona company, but they have a branch in Madrid - branch that they have been beefing up "just in case". If shit truly hits the fan the plan is to move there. But that doesn't change the fact that I would be leaving all my friends and family because of idiotic politics.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Monoriu on November 03, 2017, 09:59:06 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:56:07 AM
I work for a Barcelona company, but they have a branch in Madrid - branch that they have been beefing up "just in case". If shit truly hits the fan the plan is to move there. But that doesn't change the fact that I would be leaving all my friends and family because of idiotic politics.

Politics is like natural disasters.  They just happen, and there is nothing you can do about it.  If an earthquake destroys your town, you need to think if you'll stay or move.  Politics is the same. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 03, 2017, 10:48:24 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:20:14 AM
I've been hyperventilating for the past 6 weeks.

I know it impacts you so much more than it does the rest of us, but this whole independence thingy has been a big letdown.

Tiananmen it ain't.  Very disappointing
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on November 03, 2017, 12:05:33 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:56:07 AM
I work for a Barcelona company, but they have a branch in Madrid - branch that they have been beefing up "just in case". If shit truly hits the fan the plan is to move there. But that doesn't change the fact that I would be leaving all my friends and family because of idiotic politics.

I'm still here & I grew up in between 2 failed Independence referendum. Montreal shrunk, Toronto grew. There is still economic activity.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zoupa on November 03, 2017, 01:52:23 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 03, 2017, 12:05:33 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:56:07 AM
I work for a Barcelona company, but they have a branch in Madrid - branch that they have been beefing up "just in case". If shit truly hits the fan the plan is to move there. But that doesn't change the fact that I would be leaving all my friends and family because of idiotic politics.

I'm still here & I grew up in between 2 failed Independence referendum. Montreal shrunk, Toronto grew. There is still economic activity.

Yeah. All those companies/rats that left Montreal never returned though. Same thing will happen in Catalogne.

I guesstimate we're collectively poorer by 15%, 20 years later. So it's not the end of the world.

Some things matter more than the mighty fucking dollar.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on November 03, 2017, 01:56:26 PM
companies leaving are rats, but provinces leaving are a -ok? Hypocrite :P

I'm a BoM user, proudly headquarter in Toronto :D
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zoupa on November 03, 2017, 02:00:51 PM
Quote from: HVC on November 03, 2017, 01:56:26 PM
companies leaving are rats, but provinces leaving are a -ok? Hypocrite :P

I'm a BoM user, proudly headquarter in Toronto :D

It wouldn't be a province leaving but a Nation breaking free  :goodboy:

Learn the difference  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on November 03, 2017, 02:02:11 PM
Weren't you an immigrant from France?

Stop trying to break my country!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 03, 2017, 02:30:26 PM
Quote from: HVC on November 03, 2017, 02:02:11 PM
Weren't you an immigrant from France?

Stop trying to break my country!

He is not trying to break Al-Gharb Al-Andalus, calm down.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on November 03, 2017, 02:32:22 PM
My family's not even from Algarve, my dads from Lisbon nd my mom Nazare :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zoupa on November 03, 2017, 02:32:31 PM
Is the eggplant really calling out the camembert?

The WASPs must be happy  :mad:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 03, 2017, 02:33:02 PM
Can't fault the rats for leaving the ship if you're the one sinking it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on November 03, 2017, 02:35:11 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 03, 2017, 02:32:31 PM
Is the eggplant really calling out the camembert?

The WASPs must be happy  :mad:

Real question, away from the whole boo French separatists thing, how hard was it for you to understand Quebecers when you first came over? in school in Ontario we learned Parisian French, so my first trip to Quebec was odd. But then again it wasn't like my French was fluent so I always wondered how it must be for a someone from France.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 03, 2017, 02:41:17 PM
Quote from: HVC on November 03, 2017, 02:32:22 PM
My family's not even from Algarve, my dads from Lisbon nd my mom Nazare :P

Al-Gharb AL-ANDALUS was the name for all moorish domains in Portugal and you know it.  :P
Al-Ushbona is even more damning than Algarve, besides.  :D
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zoupa on November 03, 2017, 02:42:27 PM
I came over at 11 and my parents put in me in a French system private school. The majority of students were not "native" quebecers. Lots of french expats, vietnamese, lebanese, some latinos. So my exposition to qc accent and culture was gradual. Plus I was a kid, and kids learn this shit fast.

So in resume, I adapted in a jiffy. Good thing too. Compared to some french idiots that come here in their 20s and 30s and think the colonials are inferior at everything, dodged a bullet on being an asshole. Or an even bigger asshole.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on November 03, 2017, 02:54:22 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 03, 2017, 02:42:27 PM
I came over at 11 and my parents put in me in a French system private school. The majority of students were not "native" quebecers. Lots of french expats, vietnamese, lebanese, some latinos. So my exposition to qc accent and culture was gradual. Plus I was a kid, and kids learn this shit fast.

So in resume, I adapted in a jiffy. Good thing too. Compared to some french idiots that come here in their 20s and 30s and think the colonials are inferior at everything, dodged a bullet on being an asshole. Or an even bigger asshole.

Good thing you save yourself there in the end. :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 04, 2017, 06:44:38 AM
My hometown (council is held by separatists) declared the hottie opposition leader "persona non grata". She's went there for a rally today as a response. Pity I'm away.  :sleep:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNyQAvrWkAEv7Z2.jpg)

Why would ANYONE declare her "persona non grata"? :wub:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on November 04, 2017, 07:01:23 AM
Just finished helping my sister re-route her flights so she will avoid Barcelona next weekend and fly out of Paris instead.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 04, 2017, 07:14:09 AM
It's not like I own stock in the Barcelona airport or anything, but I don't think you need to get that far. City's safe and after lack of resistance when Madrid took over, it should remain so in the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on November 04, 2017, 07:42:45 AM
Main thing was she had planned to do tourism there on way back from Morocco. Decided that with things up in the air better to avoid and changed her plans at no extra cost.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on November 04, 2017, 07:44:16 AM
More of an anecdote on the cost to tourist facing industries in Barcelona over this independence bid.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 04, 2017, 07:55:04 AM
Quote from: garbon on November 04, 2017, 07:44:16 AM
More of an anecdote on the cost to tourist facing industries in Barcelona over this independence bid.

No doubt about that. A guy I know that works in the restaurant business told me that one of their branches in BCN is down 70% in revenue this month (they'd be down in October in normal circumstances, but not by such a staggering amount).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: katmai on November 04, 2017, 07:57:17 AM
Friend just flying back to Alaska, she and fiancé spent very enjoyable 4 days to end their trip (Italy, Morocco and Spain.)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on November 04, 2017, 01:13:00 PM
I've cancelled all my planned trips to Spain.

Just to uncertain and dangerous. Going to check out Turkey instead.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tonitrus on November 04, 2017, 01:48:48 PM
I supported Spain by buying a stainless-steel bottle/thermos made there (even went out of my way to find one not made in China...cannot find one made in 'Merica anymore).

It's a pretty good thermos/bottle.  :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 04, 2017, 05:10:40 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 03, 2017, 09:56:07 AM
I work for a Barcelona company, but they have a branch in Madrid - branch that they have been beefing up "just in case". If shit truly hits the fan the plan is to move there. But that doesn't change the fact that I would be leaving all my friends and family because of idiotic politics.

My gf works here in Barcelona for a well-known multinational. The idea was for me to join her eventually.

I could ask for a transfer to the local plant. I could become part of the "core" teams (you travel a lot but Barcelona is ideal as a base of operations since it has flights everywhere). Or I could look for another employer in an area with lots of automotive manufacturing.

I'm starting to suspect there won't be any automotive manufacturing left in 10 years though ...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 05, 2017, 09:57:02 AM
The "government in exile" have turned themselves in to the Belgian police, after Spain issued an international arrest order. Apparently the actual extradition process can now take up to 90 days. They are trying to get a Flemish judge to oversee the process, which I guess they see as potentially more favorable to a nationalist cause.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 05, 2017, 12:03:10 PM
Good grief.  Al Gore put up a bigger fight.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 05, 2017, 12:57:40 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 05, 2017, 12:03:10 PM
Good grief.  Al Gore put up a bigger fight.

It's a PR thing. Being seen in cuffs, being arrested by the Belgian po-po, might not sit well with the crowd at home that somehow still believe the world is going to force Spain to grant them nationhood.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 07, 2017, 01:54:06 PM
Catalan ex-president sets up a small rally in Brussels with 200 separatist mayors

1) Spends half the rally railing against the EU for not helping their cause.
2) Ends up asking the EU to help their cause.

Not sure how that's gonna work  :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Kleves on November 07, 2017, 03:02:28 PM
At least you guys skipped tragedy and went straight to farce.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on November 07, 2017, 05:00:51 PM
The EU situation is very strange.
Did they actually expect the EU would interfere in this and magically make their referendum valid?
Are they pro-EU and wanting their support or is this actually some sort of anti-EU move?
Certainly they seem to have found themselves unusual support amongst the far right in the UK for their ranting about the EU.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 07, 2017, 06:03:07 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 07, 2017, 05:00:51 PM
The EU situation is very strange.
Did they actually expect the EU would interfere in this and magically make their referendum valid?
Are they pro-EU and wanting their support or is this actually some sort of anti-EU move?
Certainly they seem to have found themselves unusual support amongst the far right in the UK for their ranting about the EU.

I don't know what their endgame was, nobody was ever going to recognize an UDI. That's the kool-aid they sold to their voters, though, who drunk it happily and profusely.

Honestly, I think this has been a July Crisis affair. Both sides expected that the other would blink and back down before reaching a clusterfuck of the proportions we're having. None did. The separatists, however, thought themselves to be Germany or France, but instead they were A-H.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2017, 06:11:50 PM
The separatists should ask for a mulligan.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 07, 2017, 06:12:59 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2017, 06:11:50 PM
The separatists should ask for a mulligan.

That's how they are treating the December election.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 08, 2017, 05:03:14 AM
They seem to be trying their best to annoy as many voters as possible today.  :wacko:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 08, 2017, 05:12:11 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on November 08, 2017, 05:03:14 AM
They seem to be trying their best to annoy as many voters as possible today.  :wacko:

I don't get this either. I still don' t see the 1) Annoy as many Catalans as possible 2) ???????? 3) Independence! train of thought.

Anyway, most stuff around me is open, so the strike itself seems to be a failure, but people are having a hard time getting to their jobs because of all the roads and railways being blocked by the separatists.

The general strike of a month ago was relatively successful, but this one will turn against themselves imho. It has very little backing from the general population.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Archy on November 08, 2017, 06:40:45 AM
Can you please take these guys from here now  <_<

Belgian govt needed to clarify it's position over the Catalonian question in parliament on request of the opposition.
Official position is, it's an internal Spanish matter and Belgium won't take the side of Spain or the side of Catalonia.
Meanwhile Puigmont thanked his friends form the N-VA (the separatist party in Belgian govt).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 08, 2017, 06:44:42 AM
Come on, where's your sense of camaraderie? You've only had them for like a week.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 08, 2017, 11:10:13 AM
Quote from: Archy on November 08, 2017, 06:40:45 AM
Can you please take these guys from here now  <_<

Belgian govt needed to clarify it's position over the Catalonian question in parliament on request of the opposition.
Official position is, it's an internal Spanish matter and Belgium won't take the side of Spain or the side of Catalonia.
Meanwhile Puigmont thanked his friends form the N-VA (the separatist party in Belgian govt).

Nope, find somebody else. They're the political equivalent of the videotape from "The Ring".
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 08, 2017, 11:35:00 AM
Quote from: Archy on November 08, 2017, 06:40:45 AM
Can you please take these guys from here now  <_<

Belgian govt needed to clarify it's position over the Catalonian question in parliament on request of the opposition.
Official position is, it's an internal Spanish matter and Belgium won't take the side of Spain or the side of Catalonia.
Meanwhile Puigmont thanked his friends form the N-VA (the separatist party in Belgian govt).

That is just so Belgium. They try to stay neutral but people keep invading them anyway.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on November 08, 2017, 11:44:02 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 08, 2017, 11:35:00 AM
Quote from: Archy on November 08, 2017, 06:40:45 AM
Can you please take these guys from here now  <_<

Belgian govt needed to clarify it's position over the Catalonian question in parliament on request of the opposition.
Official position is, it's an internal Spanish matter and Belgium won't take the side of Spain or the side of Catalonia.
Meanwhile Puigmont thanked his friends form the N-VA (the separatist party in Belgian govt).

That is just so Belgium. They try to stay neutral but people keep invading them anyway.

:lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on November 08, 2017, 12:25:13 PM
I noticed someone deleted the map that had been showing in the Catalan Republic wikipedia article that showed in red all the countries that had rejected its independence.

I wonder if that was some wiki editor rule or if it happened by someone supporting the separatists as list of countries denouncing has a lot less impact than a world map covered in red. :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 09, 2017, 10:12:39 AM
Seems that the members of the Bureau of the Catalan Parliament that are today in front of the Spanish Supreme Court, also facing sedition and rebellion charges, have recanted from the UDI and formally accepted the application of article 155. This should save them from jail for now, but will require some 'splaining in front of their crowd.

Note that in the Spanish justice system, the accused have a "right to lie" of sorts.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 09, 2017, 04:12:20 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 09, 2017, 10:12:39 AM
Seems that the members of the Bureau of the Catalan Parliament that are today in front of the Spanish Supreme Court, also facing sedition and rebellion charges, have recanted from the UDI and formally accepted the application of article 155. This should save them from jail for now, but will require some 'splaining in front of their crowd.

Note that in the Spanish justice system, the accused have a "right to lie" of sorts.

Bails for everyone after they kissed the Holy Cross and rejected Satan.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2017, 04:13:51 PM
 :D
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 09, 2017, 04:14:42 PM
Everyone expected the Spanish Inquisition.   :pope:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 09, 2017, 04:17:34 PM
The next logical step is to finish the "good cop, bad cop" routine by having the Supreme Court take over Lamela's cause against the former Govern members. They recant, and bail is set.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tonitrus on November 09, 2017, 04:19:20 PM
Worst separatist rebellion ever.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Zanza on November 09, 2017, 05:03:57 PM
Do you hear the people sing?
Singing a song of angry men?
It is the music of a people
Who will bow to an administrative act of the central government once the wind blows in their face.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Jacob on November 09, 2017, 06:19:54 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 09, 2017, 05:03:57 PM
Do you hear the people sing?
Singing a song of angry men?
It is the music of a people
Who will bow to an administrative act of the central government once the wind blows in their face.

:lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 10, 2017, 09:57:40 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on November 09, 2017, 04:17:34 PM
The next logical step is to finish the "good cop, bad cop" routine by having the Supreme Court take over Lamela's cause against the former Govern members. They recant, and bail is set.

I had a good laugh today when I saw that half of the imprisoned members of the Catalan Government fired their lawyer as soon as it transpired that their colleagues from Parliament were collaborating with the prosecution.

I think the lawyer that represented the imprisoned Govern gave them terrible advice. Lamela is a tough judge, but they just sat there, pleaded the fifth*, and let the prosecution placidly build up its case for preventive imprisonment.

*Actually the 24th in Spain, but you get the idea.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: crazy canuck on November 10, 2017, 11:13:40 AM
Quote from: Zanza on November 09, 2017, 05:03:57 PM
Do you hear the people sing?
Singing a song of angry men?
It is the music of a people
Who will bow to an administrative act of the central government once the wind blows in their face.

Will you join in our crusade?
Who will be strong and stand with me?
Beyond Article 155
I will abandon the world you long to see!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Legbiter on November 10, 2017, 12:25:23 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 09, 2017, 05:03:57 PM
Do you hear the people sing?
Singing a song of angry men?
It is the music of a people
Who will bow to an administrative act of the central government once the wind blows in their face.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/O5NyCibf93upy/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on November 10, 2017, 02:17:38 PM
I am quite shocked at the diversity of those who voted for independence.
The Catalan I work with (previously based here, now in Barcelona, comes back often for work stuff) says he went out to vote for independence with his 7 months pregnant wife.
You'd think a guy with such a comfortable settled situation as him would tend towards the conservative on such an issue as this.
Would love to see some proper studies on who supported which side.

Quote from: Tonitrus on November 09, 2017, 04:19:20 PM
Worst separatist rebellion ever.

:lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 10, 2017, 02:27:57 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 10, 2017, 02:17:38 PM
I am quite shocked at the diversity of those who voted for independence.
The Catalan I work with (previously based here, now in Barcelona, comes back often for work stuff) says he went out to vote for independence with his 7 months pregnant wife.
You'd think a guy with such a comfortable settled situation as him would tend towards the conservative on such an issue as this.
Would love to see some proper studies on who supported which side.

Quote from: Tonitrus on November 09, 2017, 04:19:20 PM
Worst separatist rebellion ever.

:lol:

It's a wealthy people nationalism. Support is actually higher among those well-off.

(https://ep01.epimg.net/politica/imagenes/2017/09/28/ratio/1506601198_808440_1506601678_noticia_normal.jpg)

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on November 10, 2017, 02:32:01 PM
Aren't the lower earners more likely to be migrant workers from the south with the higher earners more likely to be locals though?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 10, 2017, 02:34:42 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 10, 2017, 02:32:01 PM
Aren't the lower earners more likely to be migrant workers from the south with the higher earners more likely to be locals though?

Yes, but this pattern is also reproduced within those cohorts. Just that locals have a higher baseline of support.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: mongers on November 10, 2017, 02:49:25 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 09, 2017, 04:19:20 PM
Worst separatist rebellion ever.

Were all of those millions on the streets little more than the political equivalent of a flash mob?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 10, 2017, 02:56:58 PM
This graph can be hard to read if you don't know Spanish, and it comes with many "buts" (survey was way too small to give reliable numbers for so many cohorts), but here it goes.

The further down the graphic, the more dirty Spanish blood in the cohort's veins (I'm in the second tier of purity :menace:). From left to right, household income.

(https://ep01.epimg.net/politica/imagenes/2017/09/28/ratio/1506601198_808440_1506602232_sumario_normal.jpg)

Catalan purebloods are overwhelmingly in favor of independence, but it also increases as income increases, same with the muggles. So support is highest among wealthy Catalan purebloods and weakest among "poor" immigrants or sons of immigrants.

Most of the Catalan population lies in the middle cohorts (both sides of the two "gaps" that cross the graphic).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2017, 03:07:56 PM
Que es esta cosa que lama "CCAA" capitan Kirko?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 10, 2017, 03:11:54 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2017, 03:07:56 PM
Que es esta cosa que lama "CCAA" capitan Kirko?

Comunidades Autónomas - our regions. That cohort is for people born in another Spanish region.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 11, 2017, 04:47:35 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2017, 03:07:56 PM
Que es esta cosa que lama "CCAA" capitan Kirko?

In Spanish plural in an acronym is noted with 2 letters instead of one. So:

CCAA: Comunidades autónomas.
EEUU: Estados Unidos (de América).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2017, 02:20:34 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on November 11, 2017, 04:47:35 AM
In Spanish plural in an acronym is noted with 2 letters instead of one. So:

CCAA: Comunidades autónomas.
EEUU: Estados Unidos (de América).

Ya lo sabia! :smarty:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 11, 2017, 04:26:49 PM
Separatist NGOs are trying to organize a large protest in Brussels on December 7th.

Belgians will love us by now, surely.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 11, 2017, 04:44:04 PM
I don't get this appealing to the international community stuff. They don't even have the majority in Catalonia behind them. If they want our support they need to secure that at least.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 11, 2017, 04:47:54 PM
The US is not going to be taken advantage of anymore. This Catalan carnage ends now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 11, 2017, 05:04:38 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 11, 2017, 04:44:04 PM
I don't get this appealing to the international community stuff. They don't even have the majority in Catalonia behind them. If they want our support they need to secure that at least.

Been telling them for 5 years now. You're welcome to try.

They see the December election as a chance to finally secure a 50%+1 majority (they won't) and thus have the world force Spain into granting Catalonia independence or whatever. Thing is, they are spending a total fat ZERO time trying to convince the rest of us. It drives me nuts. They spend all the time talking about how "evil, violent and repressive" Spain is, how the world should be helping them, but they aren't even looking at Catalonia itself, at the rest of us. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2017, 05:14:53 PM
If international intervention is the preferred mechanism for achieving independence, you really need peaceful protesters being mowed down by evil cops and women being gang-raped by street gangs of berserk Castillians.  A couple grannies roughed up at illegal polling places is not going to do the trick.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Ed Anger on November 11, 2017, 08:51:53 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 11, 2017, 04:47:54 PM
The US is not going to be taken advantage of anymore. This Catalan carnage ends now.

HOTT
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: dps on November 11, 2017, 09:18:45 PM
The solution to the Catalonia independence problem is clearly to glass over the entire Iberian peninsula.  Probably France as well, just to make sure.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 11, 2017, 09:20:17 PM
Quote from: dps on November 11, 2017, 09:18:45 PM
The solution to the Catalonia independence problem is clearly to glass over the entire Iberian peninsula.  Probably France as well, just to make sure.

Enough with the France-hate with you people.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Ed Anger on November 11, 2017, 09:21:02 PM
*shriek*

MUH PROPERTY
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on November 12, 2017, 06:04:34 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 11, 2017, 09:20:17 PM
Quote from: dps on November 11, 2017, 09:18:45 PM
The solution to the Catalonia independence problem is clearly to glass over the entire Iberian peninsula.  Probably France as well, just to make sure.

Enough with the France-hate with you people.

But it is justified!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 12, 2017, 07:40:06 AM
Perfect opportunity to use "Beware: Valmy" emoji.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Jacob on November 12, 2017, 01:55:29 PM
Quote from: dps on November 11, 2017, 09:18:45 PM
The solution to the Catalonia independence problem is clearly to glass over the entire Iberian peninsula.  Probably France as well, just to make sure.

The solution is to glass every single American state that didn't vote for Obama.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 12, 2017, 02:02:55 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 11, 2017, 09:20:17 PM
Quote from: dps on November 11, 2017, 09:18:45 PM
The solution to the Catalonia independence problem is clearly to glass over the entire Iberian peninsula.  Probably France as well, just to make sure.

Enough with the France-hate with you people.

Specially since France has nukes too.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 12, 2017, 02:29:34 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 12, 2017, 01:55:29 PM
Quote from: dps on November 11, 2017, 09:18:45 PM
The solution to the Catalonia independence problem is clearly to glass over the entire Iberian peninsula.  Probably France as well, just to make sure.

The solution is to glass every single American state that didn't vote for Obama.

Fuck you, too.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2017, 02:45:46 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 12, 2017, 06:04:34 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 11, 2017, 09:20:17 PM
Quote from: dps on November 11, 2017, 09:18:45 PM
The solution to the Catalonia independence problem is clearly to glass over the entire Iberian peninsula.  Probably France as well, just to make sure.

Enough with the France-hate with you people.

But it is justified!

Jealousy is an ugly thing garbon.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on November 12, 2017, 03:58:55 PM
I can't think of anything to be jealous about.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Jacob on November 12, 2017, 05:17:24 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 12, 2017, 03:58:55 PM
I can't think of anything to be jealous about.

That's a measure of your limited understanding, not a reflection in France.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: garbon on November 12, 2017, 05:19:04 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 12, 2017, 05:17:24 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 12, 2017, 03:58:55 PM
I can't think of anything to be jealous about.

That's a measure of your limited understanding, not a reflection in France.

If it helps you to think that way, I won't interfere.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Jacob on November 12, 2017, 05:21:42 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 12, 2017, 05:19:04 PMIf it helps you to think that way, I won't interfere.

It does help, thank you.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2017, 07:04:02 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 12, 2017, 03:58:55 PM
I can't think of anything to be jealous about.

Well I cannot think of any other reason to hate such a perfectly lovely country :hmm:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 12, 2017, 07:09:42 PM
One of the gray eminences behind the Catalan independence movement (guy I know and that I actually worked for once) has been spotted in certain south american embassy in London...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2017, 07:12:34 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 12, 2017, 07:09:42 PM
One of the gray eminences behind the Catalan independence movement (guy I know and that I actually worked for once) has been spotted in certain south american embassy in London...

I hear those who enter the Embassy of Ecuador never want to leave.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 12, 2017, 07:20:01 PM
Well, it's no mystery that Assange has been involved with this mess, but this reveals a larger degree of coordination than I expected.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Pedrito on November 13, 2017, 04:45:54 AM
Intriguing. How is he involved?

L.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 13, 2017, 04:48:53 AM
Quote from: Pedrito on November 13, 2017, 04:45:54 AM
Intriguing. How is he involved?

L.

Russian bots have been working overtime these weeks in favor of the separatists.

So far, Assange has been tweeting drivel and being interviewed by pro-separatist media. Dunno if that meeting means wikileaks is going to step it up a notch with a view on the upcoming election.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Berkut on November 13, 2017, 09:07:39 AM
And people actually pretend like he is anything other than a stooge for fucking Putin.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: katmai on November 13, 2017, 09:20:56 AM
Quote from: Berkut on November 13, 2017, 09:07:39 AM
And people actually pretend like he is anything other than a stooge for fucking Putin.
How did the Donald get dragged into this?!?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 13, 2017, 09:27:37 AM
Funniest thing, if there's a country that could get Ecuador to kick Assange out of the London embassy, that's Spain - relations between both countries are really tight, and Spain is currently the main backer for the FTA with the EU currently in process.

Don't think Madrid will care enough to spend political capital on him, but the schadenfreude...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 13, 2017, 09:41:33 AM
Quote from: Berkut on November 13, 2017, 09:07:39 AM
And people actually pretend like he is anything other than a stooge for fucking Putin.

Russia's been funny in this. Officially they back Spain, but RT and the bot army have been working overtime in favor of the separatist cause.

And know what? Spain used to be one of Russia's potential allies within the EU. We're far from the front line in the east, and we have plenty of economic ties with Russia - the ban on vegetable exports hurt our agriculture, for example, and we'd be one of the first countries to back de-escalation with them. But now? Today our Foreign Minister has openly denounced meddling from "Russian-based agents" (although it has stopped short of directly accusing the Russian government) in the European Council, and I can tell you that next time that easing sanctions on Russia is put on the table, Spain's going to wipe its arse with that.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Jacob on November 13, 2017, 12:15:06 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 13, 2017, 04:48:53 AM
Quote from: Pedrito on November 13, 2017, 04:45:54 AM
Intriguing. How is he involved?

L.

Russian bots have been working overtime these weeks in favor of the separatists.

So far, Assange has been tweeting drivel and being interviewed by pro-separatist media. Dunno if that meeting means wikileaks is going to step it up a notch with a view on the upcoming election.

I suspected something like that, but thought I might have been too paranoid...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 13, 2017, 12:23:32 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 13, 2017, 09:07:39 AM
And people actually pretend like he is anything other than a stooge for fucking Putin.

You called it years ago dude back when I was idiotically thinking he was an honest broker.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on November 13, 2017, 12:45:42 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 13, 2017, 09:27:37 AM
Funniest thing, if there's a country that could get Ecuador to kick Assange out of the London embassy, that's Spain - relations between both countries are really tight, and Spain is currently the main backer for the FTA with the EU currently in process.

Don't think Madrid will care enough to spend political capital on him, but the schadenfreude...

Yes, I wondered about that one. I know Spain is super-close to Latin America.
IIRC Latin Americans can get a Spanish passport after 2 years of residence? Seems like something a Latin American government would be wary of ruining, big potential to annoy the people.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 13, 2017, 01:08:54 PM
To be fair Ecuador is one of those South American countries that works tirelessly to shoot itself in the foot at every opportunity.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on November 13, 2017, 01:25:59 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 13, 2017, 12:45:42 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 13, 2017, 09:27:37 AM
Funniest thing, if there's a country that could get Ecuador to kick Assange out of the London embassy, that's Spain - relations between both countries are really tight, and Spain is currently the main backer for the FTA with the EU currently in process.

Don't think Madrid will care enough to spend political capital on him, but the schadenfreude...

Yes, I wondered about that one. I know Spain is super-close to Latin America.
IIRC Latin Americans can get a Spanish passport after 2 years of residence? Seems like something a Latin American government would be wary of ruining, big potential to annoy the people.

Yeah, all Latin American countries + a few select others get the 2 years of residence for citizenship deal. Anyway that wouldn't be messed up with, if anything Spain could tax remitances (Ecuador's 2nd main source of foreign currency after its oil exports), as the Ecuadorian community in Spain is amongst the largests, if not the largest of all Ecuadorian communities abroad.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on November 13, 2017, 01:26:40 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2017, 01:08:54 PM
To be fair Ecuador is one of those South American countries that works tirelessly to shoot itself in the foot at every opportunity.

Fun fact, the 1st big wave of inmigration from Ecuador in the 50s was due to the collapse of its Panama hat industry.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Barrister on November 13, 2017, 06:01:03 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 13, 2017, 01:26:40 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2017, 01:08:54 PM
To be fair Ecuador is one of those South American countries that works tirelessly to shoot itself in the foot at every opportunity.

Fun fact, the 1st big wave of inmigration from Ecuador in the 50s was due to the collapse of its Panama hat industry.  :P

Ha! :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 16, 2017, 11:40:42 AM
Manuel Valls (who's Barcelona-born) said today that he's willing to come and campaign against the separatists in the upcoming election.

We're fucked.  :(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 16, 2017, 11:44:53 AM
 :lmfao:
Former French prime minister, in the late François Holland Era, for those who do not know him (yet).  :lol:

He jokingly mentioned Barça could play in the French league if Catalonia became independent.  :P
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 16, 2017, 02:39:15 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on November 16, 2017, 11:44:53 AM
He jokingly mentioned Barça could play in the French league if Catalonia became independent.  :P

:lol:  :lol: :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 18, 2017, 08:33:10 PM
Spain's Prosecutor General has died suddenly and unexpectedly (kidney infection).

We'll see who Madrid appoints. This can have a big effect on the cases against the fired Catalan government, since Maza - the deceased prosecutor - was a tough hardliner. Madrid had even insinuated that they'd rather like a more "sensitive" approach in the last weeks (which was largely unheeded by Maza). Spain's Prosecutor General is appointed by the government - with parliamentary assent -, but the government doesn't have any power over him past the appointment - neither can they fire him.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 22, 2017, 03:43:30 PM
The Foreign Ministry of Ecuador has released a public notice warning Julian Assange that as an asylee he's barred from acting against the national interests of Ecuador, and highlighting Ecuador's friendship with Spain and the support for its territorial integrity  :D

Assange has chosen the worst possible country to pick on, if he wants to remain holed up in London.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: grumbler on November 22, 2017, 06:20:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 18, 2017, 08:33:10 PM
Spain's Prosecutor General has died suddenly and unexpectedly (kidney infection).

We'll see who Madrid appoints. This can have a big effect on the cases against the fired Catalan government, since Maza - the deceased prosecutor - was a tough hardliner. Madrid had even insinuated that they'd rather like a more "sensitive" approach in the last weeks (which was largely unheeded by Maza). Spain's Prosecutor General is appointed by the government - with parliamentary assent -, but the government doesn't have any power over him past the appointment - neither can they fire him.

Did someone rid them of that pesky prosecutor?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on November 23, 2017, 05:11:28 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 22, 2017, 03:43:30 PM
The Foreign Ministry of Ecuador has released a public notice warning Julian Assange that as an asylee he's barred from acting against the national interests of Ecuador, and highlighting Ecuador's friendship with Spain and the support for its territorial integrity  :D

Assange has chosen the worst possible country to pick on, if he wants to remain holed up in London.

Well maybe the Russians didn't ask him if he thought it was a good idea.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 09, 2019, 09:44:33 AM
Well, next week the Spanish Supreme Court will announce the veredict for the Catalan leaders that spearheaded the failed independence push of 2017 (except those who went abroad). It is widely expected that they won't be convicted for rebellion, but will probably get done for sedition (so roughly half what the prosecution was asking).

Separatists are trying to organize massive protests, aiming to get a Hong Kong scenario rolling. Attendance to marches and support for independence in polls has been falling steadily, and its pretty much at its lowest ebb since the whole push for independence began in 2012. So they kinda see the convictions as the last chance to do... something I guess. I presume we'll get some days of protests with the occasional mild riot (plus blocked roads/railways) but I'd be surprised if it really goes out of control. That said, a few weeks ago they arrested a bunch of radicals that were allegedly cooking explosives, so there's always the chance that some crazy idiot will seize the chance.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 14, 2019, 08:35:38 AM
The sentence came out today, 9-13 years, half what the prosecution was asking for.  The Guardian has an excellent writeup on the whole situation, past, present and questions going forward.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/14/catalan-separatist-leaders-given-lengthy-prison-sentences

We've had mild protests so far today. A few blocked roads, but nothing major. Underground groups called for shutting down the Barcelona airport but the turnout so far seems small and the police has it under control. We'll see how the day develops. Most people are still at work, and Catalan protestors tend to reconcile protesting with their jobs, so it could escalate in the afternoon.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Rex Francorum on October 14, 2019, 06:37:35 PM
What a banana republic (well, it is not a republic) Spain is...
And I don't mean to be against Catalonia's independance, but to imprison the leaders.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Sheilbh on October 14, 2019, 07:09:51 PM
Quote from: Rex Francorum on October 14, 2019, 06:37:35 PM
What a banana republic (well, it is not a republic) Spain is...
And I don't mean to be against Catalonia's independance, but to imprison the leaders.
Agreed. It's extraordinary and wrong.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: HVC on October 14, 2019, 07:19:35 PM
Why is it wrong? They're seditionists who called for illegal actions against the state. I mean you can argue against the length of time, I guess, but I wouldnt go so far as to call it wrong.

*edit* reading the article, they also got convicted of misappropriating government funds
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Monoriu on October 14, 2019, 07:51:56 PM
They are traitors and criminals  :mad:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 14, 2019, 07:56:28 PM
The sentences do seem overly long for what was essentially an exercise in political theater.  A peaceful one.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 14, 2019, 08:00:15 PM
Well I don't know the full extent of the charges but generally I am not all that excited about making political martyrs.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: DGuller on October 14, 2019, 09:13:47 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 14, 2019, 08:00:15 PM
Well I don't know the full extent of the charges but generally I am not all that excited about making political martyrs.
No one is, but sometimes you just have to do it.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 14, 2019, 10:02:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 14, 2019, 07:56:28 PM
The sentences do seem overly long for what was essentially an exercise in political theater.  A peaceful one.

They stole public money to carry out that theater. And are also traitors.

What do you think would be the appropriate punishment for The Mississippi congress declaring the Confederacy independent? Or would that just be theater?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Rex Francorum on October 15, 2019, 12:50:18 AM
Well Québec independantists didn't suffer any witchunt, because, well, they have the right to express their desire to leave Canada. Why should it be different elsewhere?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 15, 2019, 12:59:02 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 14, 2019, 10:02:21 PM
They stole public money to carry out that theater. And are also traitors.

What do you think would be the appropriate punishment for The Mississippi congress declaring the Confederacy independent? Or would that just be theater?

Were the people of Quebec and Scotland traitors for holding independence referendums?   Was Sarah Palin's husband a traitor for being a registered member of the (legal) Alaska Independence Party?

In my mind there's a difference between the theater, the speeches, the proclamations, the flying of independence flags and violence. Lincoln felt it important to wait for the South to fire the first shot.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 01:04:26 AM
And separatists over here have the same right. Heck, they hold the Catalan government and yell to everybody every day that same desire. The current incumbents just haven't tried to act on that desire in ways that are against the law.

The court had a difficult job here. They avoided the calls to do them for rebellion (which was ridiculous), and have also refused the demands of the prosecution to make them ineligible for penitentiary benefits, which means most of them are eligible for partial release as soon as next year. Yes, the political fallout was previsibly going to be big, but what was the court supposed to do? Not apply the law?  They even included language in the sentence that amounts to "look, this is a storied problem but our job here is to judge what's in front of us".

Also, let's remember that they already held an illegal referendum in 2014 and nobody went to jail for it. The difference is that they passed laws that made this one binding (including a Catalan proto-constitution that wasn't really that democratic...), and then used the crowds to prevent Madrid from shutting it down, in order to obtain that "mandate".

The worst thing here going forward is that finding any kind of solution is going to need a strong government in Madrid and a Catalan government that's not insane, and we aren't getting either of those things in the short term.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 15, 2019, 01:04:59 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 15, 2019, 12:59:02 AM
Were the people of Quebec and Scotland traitors for holding independence referendums?

The circumstances were just a little different.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Razgovory on October 15, 2019, 01:51:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 01:04:26 AM
And separatists over here have the same right. Heck, they hold the Catalan government and yell to everybody every day that same desire. The current incumbents just haven't tried to act on that desire in ways that are against the law.

The court had a difficult job here. They avoided the calls to do them for rebellion (which was ridiculous), and have also refused the demands of the prosecution to make them ineligible for penitentiary benefits, which means most of them are eligible for partial release as soon as next year. Yes, the political fallout was previsibly going to be big, but what was the court supposed to do? Not apply the law?  They even included language in the sentence that amounts to "look, this is a storied problem but our job here is to judge what's in front of us".

Also, let's remember that they already held an illegal referendum in 2014 and nobody went to jail for it. The difference is that they passed laws that made this one binding (including a Catalan proto-constitution that wasn't really that democratic...), and then used the crowds to prevent Madrid from shutting it down, in order to obtain that "mandate".

The worst thing here going forward is that finding any kind of solution is going to need a strong government in Madrid and a Catalan government that's not insane, and we aren't getting either of those things in the short term.


Does someone in Spain have a pardon power?  The best solution would be to convict them and then immediately pardon them.  This satisfies the requirements of the law, nobody goes to jail over silly bullshit, and the secessionists look very, very small while the government looks magnanimous.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 15, 2019, 02:17:33 AM
Quote from: Rex Francorum on October 15, 2019, 12:50:18 AM
Well Québec independantists didn't suffer any witchunt, because, well, they have the right to express their desire to leave Canada. Why should it be different elsewhere?

It is illegal in Spain to steal public funds to organize a referendum that the government has no power to organize. Whether Quebec has the power to hold secessionist referendums in the totally different nation of Canada is irrelevant.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 15, 2019, 02:26:31 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 15, 2019, 01:51:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 01:04:26 AM
And separatists over here have the same right. Heck, they hold the Catalan government and yell to everybody every day that same desire. The current incumbents just haven't tried to act on that desire in ways that are against the law.

The court had a difficult job here. They avoided the calls to do them for rebellion (which was ridiculous), and have also refused the demands of the prosecution to make them ineligible for penitentiary benefits, which means most of them are eligible for partial release as soon as next year. Yes, the political fallout was previsibly going to be big, but what was the court supposed to do? Not apply the law?  They even included language in the sentence that amounts to "look, this is a storied problem but our job here is to judge what's in front of us".

Also, let's remember that they already held an illegal referendum in 2014 and nobody went to jail for it. The difference is that they passed laws that made this one binding (including a Catalan proto-constitution that wasn't really that democratic...), and then used the crowds to prevent Madrid from shutting it down, in order to obtain that "mandate".

The worst thing here going forward is that finding any kind of solution is going to need a strong government in Madrid and a Catalan government that's not insane, and we aren't getting either of those things in the short term.


Does someone in Spain have a pardon power?  The best solution would be to convict them and then immediately pardon them.  This satisfies the requirements of the law, nobody goes to jail over silly bullshit, and the secessionists look very, very small while the government looks magnanimous.

The government can, and that has indeed been in the cards as an option to ease things. Of course, it being something that could alleviate tension, the right has been all "Don't you DARE to pardon them" at the government for the last few months. I also believe that some kind of indult is needed to move things forward in a positive direction, but that'd really tense things up on the right.

As cel said, the court was in a really tricky position, having to apply a law that didn't really fit the events (we've had plenty of "what counts as sedition and what as rebellion" arguments in the last few months), in a really tense political atmosphere. At the end of the day the court has to apply the law, it's not there to do politics.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 02:36:18 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 15, 2019, 01:51:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 01:04:26 AM
And separatists over here have the same right. Heck, they hold the Catalan government and yell to everybody every day that same desire. The current incumbents just haven't tried to act on that desire in ways that are against the law.

The court had a difficult job here. They avoided the calls to do them for rebellion (which was ridiculous), and have also refused the demands of the prosecution to make them ineligible for penitentiary benefits, which means most of them are eligible for partial release as soon as next year. Yes, the political fallout was previsibly going to be big, but what was the court supposed to do? Not apply the law?  They even included language in the sentence that amounts to "look, this is a storied problem but our job here is to judge what's in front of us".

Also, let's remember that they already held an illegal referendum in 2014 and nobody went to jail for it. The difference is that they passed laws that made this one binding (including a Catalan proto-constitution that wasn't really that democratic...), and then used the crowds to prevent Madrid from shutting it down, in order to obtain that "mandate".

The worst thing here going forward is that finding any kind of solution is going to need a strong government in Madrid and a Catalan government that's not insane, and we aren't getting either of those things in the short term.


Does someone in Spain have a pardon power?  The best solution would be to convict them and then immediately pardon them.  This satisfies the requirements of the law, nobody goes to jail over silly bullshit, and the secessionists look very, very small while the government looks magnanimous.

The government can, if we had one (acting government can't grant pardons), and strong enough to weather the crisis that would result from it. I am unsure about granting pardons to guys that say that "they will do it again", but I am not opposed to it as part of an overall solution where the guys really really promise that they won't do it again. I don't get a particular kick of them being in jail, but I would rather they don't try to push my land off a cliff again.

They want to acheve independence? Fine, convince enough people to reform the constitution. Right now roughly 25% of Spanish parliament would be in favor. You need 66% but it's something to work with, instead of alienating the people you'd need by calling them fascists and robbers.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 15, 2019, 07:09:10 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 15, 2019, 02:17:33 AM
It is illegal in Spain to steal public funds to organize a referendum that the government has no power to organize. Whether Quebec has the power to hold secessionist referendums in the totally different nation of Canada is irrelevant.

You were the one who introduced the cross country comparison.  Spain and US.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Sheilbh on October 15, 2019, 07:47:53 AM
John Bercow's really enjoying his last two weeks. He's just announced the jailed politicians are welcome to address our Parliament :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 10:27:03 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 15, 2019, 07:47:53 AM
John Bercow's really enjoying his last two weeks. He's just announced the jailed politicians are welcome to address our Parliament :lol:

Heh, the same guy that just had to deal with an executive breaking the law using some referendum as an excuse...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Razgovory on October 15, 2019, 10:40:52 AM
To be fair, I don't know much about Spanish politics.  I suggested the pardons because it tends to calm things down.  It's also somewhat humiliating to the political leaders who receive them and damages their credibility.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 15, 2019, 11:35:00 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 15, 2019, 12:59:02 AM
Were the people of Quebec and Scotland traitors for holding independence referendums?   Was Sarah Palin's husband a traitor for being a registered member of the (legal) Alaska Independence Party?


Quebec and Scotland were allowed by the laws of their countries to hold secession referendums (though based on Wikipedia it's unclear if Quebec had the right to a UDI after the referendum.) Under American law agitating for secession is not illegal.

Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 15, 2019, 11:35:54 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 15, 2019, 10:40:52 AM
To be fair, I don't know much about Spanish politics.  I suggested the pardons because it tends to calm things down.  It's also somewhat humiliating to the political leaders who receive them and damages their credibility.

Not at all the outcome in this case. They would understand pardons as sanctioning what they did, which was no less than a coup. A shitty, hopeless coup, but one nonetheless. One which has fractured Catalan society in two.

The problem with these sort of shenanigans is that until now there were no consequences. The constitution says X? The courts say Y? Fuck them. I'm untouchable.
The one silver lining is that now it has dawned on them that actions have consequences. That's why despite the constant aggressive rhetoric, the separatist establishment (politicians and civil servants) has done essentially nothing for the past two years.

My one worry is the sentences might be too mild to discourage others. 8-13 years sounds like a lot, but they will be eligible for partial release in a few months to a year. They will serve 2-3 years, and as VIP prisoners (since separatists control the penitentiary system in Catalonia).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 15, 2019, 11:41:19 AM
As a comparison, the last guy to head a coup (which lasted less than 24 hours and during which no one was injured) served 16 years, 13 before any kind of partial release.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 15, 2019, 11:56:00 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 15, 2019, 02:17:33 AM
Quote from: Rex Francorum on October 15, 2019, 12:50:18 AM
Well Québec independantists didn't suffer any witchunt, because, well, they have the right to express their desire to leave Canada. Why should it be different elsewhere?

It is illegal in Spain to steal public funds to organize a referendum that the government has no power to organize. Whether Quebec has the power to hold secessionist referendums in the totally different nation of Canada is irrelevant.

As if anything the Spanish state says can be taken for thruth in this matter.
Spain is the China of the EU, including the beating up of civilians.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 15, 2019, 12:01:00 PM
 :lol:

Show us on the doll where they hurt you.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 03:27:08 PM
So, protests turned violent tonight. There's some fires downtown. Police fighting rioters. I never got the logic behind "I hate Spain! I want Catalonia to be independent! Let's burn down Barcelona!"

Also the logic behind the Catalan government encouraging the protests and then sending in the riot police. Then again, they're insane.

(https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/index.php?attachments/img-20191015-wa0005-jpg.518689/)


Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 15, 2019, 03:36:25 PM
Rise up people of Catalonia!

Wait...um...nevermind be suppressed!
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 03:43:36 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 15, 2019, 03:36:25 PM
Rise up people of Catalonia!

Wait...um...nevermind be suppressed!

One of the Catalan ministers literally said today the Catalan police charged and dispersed protesters to protect them from the Spanish state (who would have jailed them instead).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 15, 2019, 03:44:49 PM
I am sure all those people beaten by the cops are grateful.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 04:07:13 PM
Catalan riot police either has brass balls or shit for brains. I'm not sure that gear is fireproof.

(https://www.lavanguardia.com/rf/image_large/GODO/LV/p3/WebSite/2015/10/17/Recortada/2019-10-15T201717Z_162391041_RC16C1BBA4A0_RTRMADP_3_SPAIN-POLITICS-CATALONIA-PROTE[email protected]LaVanguardia-Web-Portada.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Sheilbh on October 15, 2019, 05:29:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 15, 2019, 12:59:02 AM
Were the people of Quebec and Scotland traitors for holding independence referendums?   
Scotland's referendum was negotiated with the Westminster government and conducted based on UK legislation. The SNP government are planning to hold a unilateral referendum (depending on Brexit) on the basis that that will represent a material change from when Scotland was last asked.

QuoteIn my mind there's a difference between the theater, the speeches, the proclamations, the flying of independence flags and violence. Lincoln felt it important to wait for the South to fire the first shot.
Agree. Also I know this wasn't how they saw it, but I have an issue with viewing a peaceful, democratic, secessionist movement aiming to establish a democratic state is different than one looking to secede to ensure slavery survives.

QuoteThe court had a difficult job here. They avoided the calls to do them for rebellion (which was ridiculous), and have also refused the demands of the prosecution to make them ineligible for penitentiary benefits, which means most of them are eligible for partial release as soon as next year. Yes, the political fallout was previsibly going to be big, but what was the court supposed to do? Not apply the law?  They even included language in the sentence that amounts to "look, this is a storied problem but our job here is to judge what's in front of us".
Agreed. But I've literally never understood what the Spanish state is trying to achieve. It seems to always escalate when ignoring and moving on would probably work better.

Take this court case: what is the best case scenario?

As I see it you get convictions which creates martyrs and the current situation, or you get slap-on-the-wrist convictions which strengthens them because it indicates the court views this whole prosecution as technically right but ridiculous, or they get which also strengthens them. What outcome did the Spanish state want?

Separately I find it really interesting that it's separatism that has sparked the far right in Spain, while in the rest of Europe it's broadly been immigration in one form or other.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 05:47:00 PM
Two things. The court could hardly look away, it's not there to make politically motivated decisions on whether it is more politically expedient to sentence or not. Also, Madrid already tried the "look away and move on" approach on the two previous "referendums", and it just enticed separatists to keep raising their bet.

Current Spanish administration seems more willing to just have them stew in their juices and wait until someone more sane is in charge of Catalonia (they already offered further devolution last year and they were rebuked by the Catalan government), but I'm afraid the right will benefit from the current disturbances and we'll get a very weak government next November, or an altogether hung parliament. This will not help the crisis.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Sheilbh on October 15, 2019, 05:58:35 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 05:47:00 PM
Two things. The court could hardly look away, it's not there to make politically motivated decisions on whether it is more politically expedient to sentence or not.
Sure, but presumably the prosecutors have discretion in this. I agree about the court.

QuoteAlso, Madrid already tried the "look away and move on" approach on the two previous "referendums", and it just enticed separatists to keep raising their bet.
Sure but a neverendum that has relatively low impact (like 2014) is probably better than all of this.

In fairness personally I've had more or less zero sympathy with Spain since the police's conduct on the day of the vote which I think was an absolute disgrace. But also it seems to me just a little Talleryand-y: worse than a crime, a blunder. I've never been able to see the upside: after a vigorous action by Madrid, the Catalan separatists just decided to jack it all in?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 06:17:42 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 15, 2019, 05:58:35 PM
Sure, but presumably the prosecutors have discretion in this. I agree about the court.

Relatively. Even though having a prosecutor behind a case boosts its chances of making it to trial significantly, any private citizen or organization that can prove standing can bring criminal cases to the court, and in case of secession that was trivial. There were already some in the system when the state prosecutor finally moved in.

Also, there were some rumored dealings (and not rumored, there were witnessess to that effect during the trial) that there were negotiation attempts where Puigdemont would call an election, and the prosecutor would have gone softer, and there wouldn't have been direct rule. He instead made the UDI and fled.

Quote from: Sheilbh on October 15, 2019, 05:58:35 PM
In fairness personally I've had more or less zero sympathy with Spain since the police's conduct on the day of the vote which I think was an absolute disgrace. But also it seems to me just a little Talleryand-y: worse than a crime, a blunder. I've never been able to see the upside: after a vigorous action by Madrid, the Catalan separatists just decided to jack it all in?

I don't know, I was disgusted by it too (you can check my posts from back then if you want) and I still think the Catalan gov aren't the good guys here.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Sheilbh on October 15, 2019, 06:26:46 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 06:17:42 PM
I don't know, I was disgusted by it too (you can check my posts from back then if you want) and I still think the Catalan gov aren't the good guys here.
Same. But I can work out what the Catalan government are trying to achieve.

I can't work out what the Spanish government is trying to achieve, except for help the Catalan government.

Although as I say we're not far away from this happening here. The news tonight had a big section with the SNP at their conference planning their unilateral referendum after Brexit. Though as I say, I do sympathise with their view that Brexit fundamentally alters the picture as does a Johnson government.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 06:42:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 15, 2019, 06:26:46 PM
I can't work out what the Spanish government is trying to achieve, except for help the Catalan government.

I think that trying to look for a single-minded purpose in two different branches of the state (judiciary and executive), and an executive that has since then changed hands is going to make it look like that. The Catalan question becoming a fault line in party politics hasn't certainly helped.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Razgovory on October 15, 2019, 07:36:55 PM
Are the people of Catolonia second class citizens?  Do they face a great deal of persecution?  I'm not trying to make some sort of point here, I'm genuinely asking.  I know they had it rough under Franco, do those sort of policies still exist? 

Personally I don't care for dividing up countries, though it can be necessary in some cases.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 15, 2019, 07:42:43 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 15, 2019, 07:36:55 PM
Are the people of Catolonia second class citizens?  Do they face a great deal of persecution?  I'm not trying to make some sort of point here, I'm genuinely asking.  I know they had it rough under Franco, do those sort of policies still exist? 

Of course not. Catalan nationalism is a mixture of cultural (with a pinch of ethnic thrown in in recent times) and economic nationalism (of the "We're rich and the rest of the country not so much, so we'd rather keep the money rather than share" variety).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 15, 2019, 07:43:22 PM
Well there are two sides to this issue in Catalonia. How do the Unionists feel about how the Spanish Government is handling this? Are they encouraged and empowered by their actions? Would they be demoralized if the secessionists got off lightly? There might be some calculation I don't know.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 15, 2019, 07:51:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 15, 2019, 07:43:22 PM
Well there are two sides to this issue in Catalonia. How do the Unionists feel about how the Spanish Government is handling this? Are they encouraged and empowered by their actions? Would they be demoralized if the secessionists got off lightly? There might be some calculation I don't know.

As cel said, this is an extremely divisive issue in Spanish politics at the moment. Ciudadanos, the staunchly unionistic most voted party in Catalonia in the latest regional elections and until recently a rising force at the national level in the center-right side of the spectrum took a turn towards demanding a much heavier handed treatment of the situation, including an indefinite suspension of Catalonia's self government (which is completely agains the constitution and the rulings of the courts) and much harsher sentences, as well as completely ruling out any kind of pardon. Vox, our home grown far righters, were present in the trial as civil accusation, were also requesting extremely harsh sentences (and were happily ignored by the judges).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 15, 2019, 08:05:02 PM
Ok so there is a key issue there. You don't want to piss off the other team by appeasing the secessionists too much.

Damn why does every issue in the world seem to be like this these days?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on October 15, 2019, 08:09:46 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 15, 2019, 08:05:02 PM
Ok so there is a key issue there. You don't want to piss off the other team by appeasing the secessionists too much.

Damn why does every issue in the world seem to be like this these days?

And we have general elections in a few weeks as well. If the government goes easy on the independentists that'd make the opposition go balistic. Mind you, the current ruling already pisses off the left wing parties as well, who consider it excessive, on top of the right wing ones, who consider it lenient.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 16, 2019, 02:36:01 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 15, 2019, 08:05:02 PM
Ok so there is a key issue there. You don't want to piss off the other team by appeasing the secessionists too much.

Damn why does every issue in the world seem to be like this these days?

Appeasement has been state policy for the last 40 years and the problem has only grown worse. It still is the chosen policy, and the mildness of sentencing shows it does translate somehow to the judiciary.
It is clear that separatists have been using control of public media and education to radicalize the population for decades, but neither the socdems nor the conservatives have had the balls to do anything about it. Thus the rise of alternative parties proposing harsh measures (Cs and the far right).

There is no long term plan for unionists. Even within Catalonia they are divided. Some want to keep things as they once were and keep using separatism as a way of getting more power (PSC), others want to suspend autonomy indefinitely (Cs).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2019, 02:52:08 PM
Tonight protestors are turning against the Catalan government, having finally noticed the dissonance between following their indications to protest, only to then get beaten by the Catalan police. So instead of clashes and fires in front of Spanish state buildings, tonight we have clashes and fires in front of Catalan gov. buildings.

Revolutions, children, etc...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 16, 2019, 03:10:47 PM
Both protesters and police really need to turn it up a notch. Too boring. Although, Cpt. Bicycle did add a nice touch.
(https://forumcontent.paradoxplaza.com/public/506161/Untitled-3.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2019, 03:19:55 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 16, 2019, 03:10:47 PM
Both protesters and police really need to turn it up a notch. Too boring. Although, Cpt. Bicycle did add a nice touch.

Rather they didn't...

(https://estaticos.elperiodico.com/resources/jpg/6/9/disturbios-frente-conselleria-interior-1571255868996.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 16, 2019, 04:26:03 PM
The revolution will be instagramed.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EG9IAKAXYAIwdJM.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 16, 2019, 08:57:02 PM
Sports team mentality through and through, actual statehood and it's consequences are an afterthought. Same with Brexit.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 17, 2019, 03:57:41 AM
I find all these pictures of rioters taking pics/selfies by fires utterly fascinating. Surely a symbol of this age.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHENx-kW4AAX1Vb.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 17, 2019, 04:04:19 AM
The Great Narcissist Revolt
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Syt on October 17, 2019, 04:06:45 AM
Someone needs to photoshop that into Delacroix's painting.

(https://img.youtube.com/vi/6skizQlC-uU/0.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 17, 2019, 04:07:59 AM
Or briefcase man from Tianneman Square.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 17, 2019, 05:26:44 AM
Kicking it up a notch.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHB0gmLWsAEn9I9.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 17, 2019, 07:39:13 AM
This is right up there with Trump's letter.

Could somebody please shift us back to the normal timeline? Something clearly has gone seriously wrong somewhere, probably with the Great Hadron Collider.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Sheilbh on October 17, 2019, 07:44:30 AM
:lol: The influencer I don't great.

The rest of it I kind of do :blush:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 17, 2019, 07:57:25 AM
The same radical group responsible for yesterday's riots has called for another protest this evening, they are theming it (yes, a themed riot) after the 1936 Olympics  :huh:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Grey Fox on October 17, 2019, 07:58:38 AM
Fitness mama is pretty hot.

Spaniards always holding their side of the bargain.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Tamas on October 17, 2019, 08:02:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 17, 2019, 07:57:25 AM
The same radical group responsible for yesterday's riots has called for another protest this evening, they are theming it (yes, a themed riot) after the 1936 Olympics  :huh:

:huh:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 17, 2019, 08:08:37 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 17, 2019, 08:02:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 17, 2019, 07:57:25 AM
The same radical group responsible for yesterday's riots has called for another protest this evening, they are theming it (yes, a themed riot) after the 1936 Olympics  :huh:

:huh:

Aha, it looks it's not the Berlin one, but this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Olympiad
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Syt on October 17, 2019, 08:18:11 AM
How much is the Freddy Mercury/Montserrat Caballé song of the 1992 Olympics being played during the protests, if at all?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 17, 2019, 08:30:10 AM
Quote from: Syt on October 17, 2019, 08:18:11 AM
How much is the Freddy Mercury/Montserrat Caballé song of the 1992 Olympics being played during the protests, if at all?

Damn, that would be awesome  :lol:

But no, it's boring political chants and the odd patriotic song.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Syt on October 17, 2019, 08:33:00 AM
:(
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 17, 2019, 11:02:56 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 17, 2019, 07:58:38 AM
Fitness mama is pretty hot.

Looks like a young Julia Roberts.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 18, 2019, 02:00:48 AM
So, another night, another riot. A couple stores got sacked, fires, etc... This time we had the Spanish far-right joining the "fun", with a roving band of nazis moving around and picking off stragglers from the main separatist protest.

Most worrysome thing is that for the first time the Catalan police looked tired and overextended after all these days. There weren't as many rioters yesterday as in other nights, but they were able to move around and burn stuff quite easily. There's a general strike today, so violence is expected to rise in the evening. I presume they'll end up having to ask the Spanish police for help, and Madrid will happily oblige.

In the political arena, there's a burgeoning crisis in the Catalan government due to the riots, as the president is seen as being soft/not caring about them. He left a crisis meeting of the Catalan cabinet to join a protest march, which made his coalition partners (who are polling way ahead of the president's party and will use anything to try to provoke an election) furious. Later, the president made the surprise announcement in Parliament that he intended to hold another independence referendum this term (neverendum!), but not even his own MPs seemed to get behind the proposal. He's looking pretty isolated at this point.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 07:16:05 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 18, 2019, 02:00:48 AM
. I presume they'll end up having to ask the Spanish police for help, and Madrid will happily oblige.


If I were Madrid I'd say no. let them burn down their own city, especially if they are going to keep re-electing secessionists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 18, 2019, 08:42:52 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 07:16:05 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 18, 2019, 02:00:48 AM
. I presume they'll end up having to ask the Spanish police for help, and Madrid will happily oblige.


If I were Madrid I'd say no. let them burn down their own city, especially if they are going to keep re-electing secessionists.

That's a good way to turn more people into secessionists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 18, 2019, 08:50:14 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 07:16:05 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 18, 2019, 02:00:48 AM
. I presume they'll end up having to ask the Spanish police for help, and Madrid will happily oblige.


If I were Madrid I'd say no. let them burn down their own city, especially if they are going to keep re-electing secessionists.

Secessionists are not the majority in Barcelona: out of 85 seats, 38 are for pro-secessionist parties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barcelona_(Parliament_of_Catalonia_constituency)

So...maybe not let them burn down Barcelona?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 09:07:57 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 18, 2019, 08:42:52 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 07:16:05 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 18, 2019, 02:00:48 AM
. I presume they'll end up having to ask the Spanish police for help, and Madrid will happily oblige.


If I were Madrid I'd say no. let them burn down their own city, especially if they are going to keep re-electing secessionists.

That's a good way to turn more people into secessionists.

They won't have the cruel fascist Bananna Republic Spanish police to blame.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 09:09:00 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 18, 2019, 08:50:14 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 07:16:05 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 18, 2019, 02:00:48 AM
. I presume they'll end up having to ask the Spanish police for help, and Madrid will happily oblige.


If I were Madrid I'd say no. let them burn down their own city, especially if they are going to keep re-electing secessionists.

Secessionists are not the majority in Barcelona: out of 85 seats, 38 are for pro-secessionist parties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barcelona_(Parliament_of_Catalonia_constituency)

So...maybe not let them burn down Barcelona?

It will encourage the Catalan police and prison authorities to stop appeasing secesionists.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 18, 2019, 10:17:03 AM
Quote from: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 09:09:00 AM
It will encourage the Catalan police and prison authorities to stop appeasing secesionists.

They are ruled by secessionist parties in government.

Though in fairness the police changed its tune almost immediately after their commissioner was indicted and appeared before the judge, having been left to rot by his political masters. Proof that leniency and appeasement is not the correct path. Any pardon would be counterproductive and I for one will never vote for a leader that chooses to do so.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 18, 2019, 12:11:11 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 18, 2019, 10:17:03 AM
Though in fairness the police changed its tune almost immediately after their commissioner was indicted and appeared before the judge, having been left to rot by his political masters.

Dude even turned Prosecution Witness during the trial, looking to save his own skin.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 12:30:44 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 18, 2019, 10:17:03 AM

Though in fairness the police changed its tune almost immediately

In which direction?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on October 18, 2019, 01:11:02 PM
Quote from: chipwich on October 18, 2019, 12:30:44 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on October 18, 2019, 10:17:03 AM

Though in fairness the police changed its tune almost immediately

In which direction?

The commissioner and other high ranking members of the regional police were complicit in the execution of the illegal referendum of the 1-O and the siege of the judiciary raid a few days before, siding openly with the separatist movement.

The commissioner and one of her lieutenants were indicted and appear before court not long afterwards. They were thrown to the wolves by their political rulers. When it dawned on them that they were facing jail time, they in turn threw individual policemen under the bus, arguing that they had given no orders to help the separatists and what happened was down to each agent.

That pretty much ended whatever allegiance the Catalan police had to the separatist leadership. Upon the declaration of independence, the new bosses immediately declared for the current order an thus killed any hope of the abortive state.
The men themselves are probably still deeply divided, as is Catalan society, but they are also well aware of the personal consequences now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 18, 2019, 02:57:56 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/LTAroXQ.jpg)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 19, 2019, 02:01:55 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHMmvbeWwAEuary.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 19, 2019, 02:45:41 AM
 :lol:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 19, 2019, 03:05:26 AM
There's also a video floating around showing a couple having sexual intercourse in their balcony while watching the riots, but I suspect it's taken from some other place and being passed as being from Barcelona.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on October 19, 2019, 02:51:16 PM
Quote from: celedhring on October 19, 2019, 02:01:55 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHMmvbeWwAEuary.jpg:large)

I love Europeans.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Monoriu on October 19, 2019, 03:18:08 PM
Same in Hong Kong.  I mean, if there is a riot going on downstairs, you can't leave for a while anyway.  May as well stay and wait until it is over. 
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on October 21, 2019, 12:35:50 AM
Things have calmed down this weekend. Hopefully it remains that way going into the week, although radicals have vowed to keep the pressure.

We have a cop on the throes of death, and things could go ballistic if he dies. We are amidst a general election campaign and the right is grilling the socdems for being soft (imho, the socdems have done what they should, send police reinforcements and stay away from overreacting politically).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 02, 2019, 02:23:51 AM
Things have been calm since that first week, except for some small-scale demos. However, some radical separatist groups are apparently planning to attempt to shut down polling stations in next weekend's general election.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 02, 2019, 04:35:19 AM
From the looks of it nobody outside Spain cares anymore. But nevertheless I think that would be a mistake. As we saw in this very thread about the only point they scored abroad was on the "we just want to vote and they won't let us" narrative. That comes crashing down if they forcibly tamper with elections.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 02, 2019, 05:10:19 AM
The same group that orchestrated the airport blockade has summoned people in downtown Barcelona the evening before the election. Catalan police fears they'll intend to occupy polling stations in the Barcelona area (which of course leans unionist  :rolleyes:), there are also some messaging coming from the CDR grapevine that they intend to do so.

We'll see. I agree that it'd be beyond idiotic from a PR perspective, but some parts of separatism are fully in "some people just want to see the world burn" phase.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on November 02, 2019, 05:11:01 AM
Has the Brexit crap had any impact on their wish to leave the EU?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 02, 2019, 05:13:15 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 02, 2019, 05:11:01 AM
Has the Brexit crap had any impact on their wish to leave the EU?

"The EU isn't that great anyway".
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on November 02, 2019, 05:13:41 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 02, 2019, 05:13:15 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 02, 2019, 05:11:01 AM
Has the Brexit crap had any impact on their wish to leave the EU?

"The EU isn't that great anyway".

I see...
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on November 03, 2019, 06:00:42 PM
Wait, they want to leave the EU?
I thought the whole idea was the same as with Scotland, to smoothly switch over to being an independent EU member.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on November 03, 2019, 06:11:02 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 03, 2019, 06:00:42 PM
Wait, they want to leave the EU?
I thought the whole idea was the same as with Scotland, to smoothly switch over to being an independent EU member.

They don't want to leave the EU per se. Their running assumption while the process was still civil was that they'd transition to being an EU member but as an independent country. When things turned sour and they saw that by and large the EU kept itself away from the mess and didn't want to get involved into a member country's internal issues they started expressing in disbelief how could it be that the EU was not inserting itself as a mediator to get them independence, and now they're in kind of a "if this is what the EU is about we don't really want to be part of it anyway".

In any case, political realism has left the building a long time ago.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Josquius on November 03, 2019, 07:01:08 PM
That's sad. I did see a lot of brexiters quite oddly taking up the catalan independence cause (how dare the EU not interfere in member state affairs!) and using it as a stick de jure to attack Europe about.
Which is funny when you think of it considering the old Republican Spain associations that I believe still hold amongst catalan independence groups and the political leanings of Britain's shit.
But surprising the catalans themselves are also swallowing this line.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Brain on November 03, 2019, 11:47:59 PM
Quote from: Tyr on November 03, 2019, 06:00:42 PM
Wait, they want to leave the EU?
I thought the whole idea was the same as with Scotland, to smoothly switch over to being an independent EU member.

If they leave Spain abruptly (which some of them appear to want) they automatically leave the EU.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: merithyn on November 04, 2019, 11:38:33 AM
So... what are the chances this will all be right as rain by, say, December 9? :)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 04, 2019, 01:52:09 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 04, 2019, 11:38:33 AM
So... what are the chances this will all be right as rain by, say, December 9? :)

You should be fine, don't worry. I can't see anything happening by that date (protests are usually very reactive).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: merithyn on November 04, 2019, 01:53:50 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 04, 2019, 01:52:09 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 04, 2019, 11:38:33 AM
So... what are the chances this will all be right as rain by, say, December 9? :)

You should be fine, don't worry. I can't see anything happening by that date (protests are usually very reactive).

I'll count on you to tell me where to avoid, should that become necessary. :unsure:
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 04, 2019, 01:56:06 PM
Yeah for sure, but it will be fine. Nothing to protest against happening in those dates.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Duque de Bragança on November 12, 2019, 05:15:27 AM
Independentists are blocking the motorway between France and Spain, so now the Gendarmerie gets to join the fun.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/operation-pour-deloger-les-independantistes-qui-bloquent-l-autoroute-france-espagne-20191112 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/operation-pour-deloger-les-independantistes-qui-bloquent-l-autoroute-france-espagne-20191112)
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 12, 2019, 06:38:27 AM
Dunno who told them that it was a better idea to set this up in the French side of the border, I guess they haven't been paying attention to the Gendarmerie exchanging pleasantries with the yellow vests for months. The French cops have even used tear gas.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Sheilbh on November 12, 2019, 07:34:15 AM
Advocate General of CJEU has given an opinion in favour of Junqueras. Mostly seems like common sense points. The Court doesn't always, but normally follows the AG's opinion.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on November 12, 2019, 09:47:49 AM
PSOE and Podemos have just announced an agreement to form a coalition government. I don't know wether to laugh or cry, all while despairing the whole time.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 12, 2019, 09:48:58 AM
Oh, the arguments for not giving Junqueras his seat always looked a bit dodgy to me, but at least the Spanish Court made the step of consulting with the ECJ (Junqueras' sentence is suspended until the ruling).

Still, the Advocate General concedes that the sentence effectively removes him from office, so it won't help Junqueras much, but if the court rules in that direction it will affect others.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 12, 2019, 09:49:19 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 12, 2019, 09:47:49 AM
PSOE and Podemos have just announced an agreement to form a coalition government. I don't know wether to laugh or cry, all while despairing the whole time.

Could have done that 3 months ago, indeed.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on November 12, 2019, 09:56:14 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 12, 2019, 09:49:19 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 12, 2019, 09:47:49 AM
PSOE and Podemos have just announced an agreement to form a coalition government. I don't know wether to laugh or cry, all while despairing the whole time.

Could have done that 3 months ago, indeed.

It would have saved so much grief. We'd still have an at least nominally liberal party as the 3rd force in parliament rather than a far right one.

Let's see if they now can get enough support to get to 176 MPs.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: celedhring on November 12, 2019, 11:10:22 AM
Incidentally, the coalition agreement includes language about "fomenting talks in Catalonia, seeking formulas of agreement and understanding, within the Constitutional framework". Of course all the separatist parties are already howling that this is an unacceptable red line.

When they say "Spain, sit and talk" they mean "Spain, give us what we want".
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Sheilbh on November 12, 2019, 03:26:12 PM
I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on November 12, 2019, 06:39:39 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2019, 03:26:12 PM
I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.

For sure. Basically, what happened was that Rivera got drunk on his own Kool-aid, and after the previous elections, when PP dropped to their historical minimum, saw overcoming them as a real possibility, thus becoming the main right wing party in Spain. They then went hard to the right in some issues, dropping centrist voters along the way and being outcompeted by a resurgent PP and Vox on the right, ending up in a bit of a middle of nowhere politically. The party is now in disarray, and what they do in the next months will determine their future viability, if there's any to be had.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 12, 2019, 06:57:21 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2019, 03:26:12 PM
I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.

It's a bit more complicated than that.

Just about the only red line Cs has is separatism. That is what it was born against.

That line was first crossed by Iglesias in 2015 in order to provoke new elections by making a PSOE-Cs-podemos government impossible (he was gambling on becoming the new left replacing PSOE).
After the UDI Sánchez also crossed that line (perhaps to keep his significant amount of Catalan voters). Sánchez also tried to paint Cs as radical right, knowing perfectly well that they both split the moderate vote. Rivera gladly helped him by trying to replace PP (in a repetition of Iglesias' aforementioned failure).

The end result was that Cs could no longer look to the left for pacts. All that remained were PP+Vox. And that's where we are now.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2019, 07:00:48 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 12, 2019, 06:39:39 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2019, 03:26:12 PM
I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.

For sure. Basically, what happened was that Rivera got drunk on his own Kool-aid, and after the previous elections, when PP dropped to their historical minimum, saw overcoming them as a real possibility, thus becoming the main right wing party in Spain. They then went hard to the right in some issues, dropping centrist voters along the way and being outcompeted by a resurgent PP and Vox on the right, ending up in a bit of a middle of nowhere politically. The party is now in disarray, and what they do in the next months will determine their future viability, if there's any to be had.

Ok so where did the centrist voters flee to?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 12, 2019, 07:03:55 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 12, 2019, 07:00:48 PM
Ok so where did the centrist voters flee to?

I stayed home. I was not alone. There are at least a million unaccounted center votes in the last election alone. And many of us bailed in the previous one, after Rivera turned right.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2019, 07:05:39 PM
Abandoning the base to try to reach new voters has tanked many a political party. Well hopefully they put Ines in charge next time.
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Iormlund on November 12, 2019, 07:15:16 PM
They are done for, I think. Their liberal core was purged or left in protest long ago. Plus the Spanish electoral system is no FPTP, but still quite ruthless on minority parties (unless they are concentrated on a few provinces).
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: The Larch on November 12, 2019, 07:18:10 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on November 12, 2019, 06:57:21 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2019, 03:26:12 PM
I think the blame for the Cs supporting the far-right rather than being a normal liberal party (see also Macron's views on this) are with the Cs rather than the left.

It's a bit more complicated than that.

Just about the only red line Cs has is separatism. That is what it was born against.

That line was first crossed by Iglesias in 2015 in order to provoke new elections by making a PSOE-Cs-podemos government impossible (he was gambling on becoming the new left replacing PSOE).
After the UDI Sánchez also crossed that line (perhaps to keep his significant amount of Catalan voters). Sánchez also tried to paint Cs as radical right, knowing perfectly well that they both split the moderate vote. Rivera gladly helped him by trying to replace PP (in a repetition of Iglesias' aforementioned failure).

The end result was that Cs could no longer look to the left for pacts. All that remained were PP+Vox. And that's where we are now.

We have very different readings of some of the events that took place.  :P

When did, in your opinion, Podemos and PSOE cross the red line of separatism exactly?
Title: Re: The shit in Spain falls mainly in the fan
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2019, 07:20:19 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on November 12, 2019