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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: mongers on August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

Title: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-15 + 2022 Invasion
Post by: mongers on August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM
I think this is a very real possibility within the next 72 hours:

Quote
NATO says Russia could be poised to invade Ukraine

BRUSSELS Wed Aug 6, 2014 7:55am EDT

(Reuters) - Russia has amassed around 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's eastern border and could use the pretext of a humanitarian or peace-keeping mission to invade, NATO said on Wednesday.
......

rest of item here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/us-ukraine-crisis-nato-idUSKBN0G613M20140806 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/us-ukraine-crisis-nato-idUSKBN0G613M20140806)

Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Viking on August 06, 2014, 04:11:38 PM
When was the last time we had a war where both sides had armor divisions?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 06, 2014, 04:13:07 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.

To a large extent I agree.

There was a time within the first week after the Crimea takeover, when Ukrainian morale was so low, Russian forces could have occupied all of East Ukraine in a couple of days.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 06, 2014, 04:13:39 PM
Quote from: Viking on August 06, 2014, 04:11:38 PM
When was the last time we had a war where both sides had armor divisions?

Iraq 2003.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 06, 2014, 04:21:27 PM
Quote from: Viking on August 06, 2014, 04:11:38 PM
When was the last time we had a war where both sides had armor divisions?

Maybe not the last, but maybe the last epic tank battle:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Medina_Ridge

Tank Losses:
US 0 (1 fatality due to friendly fire)
Iraq 186 tanks, 127 AFVs

Battle Length:
2 hours
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 06, 2014, 04:23:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

Americans :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 04:25:22 PM
I don't think anything will happen.  They will need more than 20,000 troops to do anything.  They had more than that massed at the border before and then backed down.  Uncle Vlad may be trying to scare, intimidate, or provoke the Ukes but I don't see him invading.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 04:27:45 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

The UK sent the 1st Armoured Division.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Iraq_(2003)_order_of_battle
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:31:12 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 04:25:22 PM
I don't think anything will happen.  They will need more than 20,000 troops to do anything.  They had more than that massed at the border before and then backed down.  Uncle Vlad may be trying to scare, intimidate, or provoke the Ukes but I don't see him invading.

Who knows, send in what you have now, take your sweet time to wring maximum soap-opera/propaganda value out of it while reinforcements arrive in dribs and drabs, Russian improvisation style. .
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 04:57:08 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

The British did.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 05:01:41 PM
Quote from: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 04:27:45 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

The UK sent the 1st Armoured Division.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Iraq_(2003)_order_of_battle

They should have sent over XXX Corps commanded by Bernard Montgomery's Great-Grandson if they wanted to be that retro.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 05:04:37 PM
Actually guys I believe the Brits sent their 1st Armored Division to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 05:07:34 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 05:04:37 PM
Actually guys I believe the Brits sent their 1st Armored Division to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.

What am I, chopped liver?  :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 05:10:52 PM
Actually, a more interesting question is when did armoured divisions clash in a war that wan't a one-sided drubbing.  ;)

My guess would be the Iran-Iraq War.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 06, 2014, 05:28:21 PM
Quote from: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 05:10:52 PM
Actually, a more interesting question is when did armoured divisions clash in a war that wan't a one-sided drubbing.  ;)

My guess would be the Iran-Iraq War.

What is sort of interesting about the battle I linked to is that it wasn't anticipated to be such a one sided beat down. The Iraqi army was "battle tested" and supposed to be competent. The US was post Vietnam and some were worried about the quality of the post draft enlistees. The M1 was getting press as unsuited for desert warfare and a boondoggle.

In the end, the battle now warrants just a brief wiki article and hardly anyone knows about it.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 06:31:32 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.
I'm not that optimistic.  You can't rebuild a totally dilapidated army in a couple of months.  If the Russians officially go in, they can officially pound Ukrainians with everything they've got.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 06:55:57 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 06:31:32 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.
I'm not that optimistic.  You can't rebuild a totally dilapidated army in a couple of months.  If the Russians officially go in, they can officially pound Ukrainians with everything they've got.

East Ukrainian op has been a clusterfuck for the Russians. And the Ukes have been blooded and turned into implacable enemies and will crush the Russian proxy forces on present trends. The eastern regions have not really rallied to the Russian cause. This will cost the Russians, dearly.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Alcibiades on August 06, 2014, 07:05:08 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
I don't think we sent over any armored divisions.

Most divisions have tank units in them, more or less.

A single brigade in the 4th Infantry Division, for instance, has well over a hundred M1s, let alone Bradely IFVs which outnumber the tanks by a very large margin.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 06, 2014, 07:12:14 PM
How many divisions are headquartered at Benning? I saw a shitload of tanks there and it's an infantry base. It was many hundreds of them at least.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 07:32:40 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 06:55:57 PM
East Ukrainian op has been a clusterfuck for the Russians.
Not as much as it should've been, considering the types of forces facing off each other.  Once Russia officially starts its peacekeeping mission, however, they can deploy the full might of their air force and artillery.
QuoteAnd the Ukes have been blooded and turned into implacable enemies and will crush the Russian proxy forces on present trends. The eastern regions have not really rallied to the Russian cause. This will cost the Russians, dearly.
Being an implacable enemy provides only so much protection against high explosives.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 06:31:32 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.
I'm not that optimistic.  You can't rebuild a totally dilapidated army in a couple of months.  If the Russians officially go in, they can officially pound Ukrainians with everything they've got.

The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.  The Russians have been doing a lot of exercises over the last few months, so they trained up their invasion force.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 08:41:03 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.
The guy who finished 7th in the 100 meter dash in the Olympics may have nothing on Usain Bolt, but I'm pretty sure I'm still going to have a hard time beating him.  What makes you think that Ukrainians don't share all the weaknesses of the Russian army?  Everything that Russians are bad at, Ukrainians are worse at.  Both militaries fell apart after USSR crumbled, but only one of them took steps to rebuild and modernize.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 06, 2014, 08:55:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 08:41:03 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.
The guy who finished 7th in the 100 meter dash in the Olympics may have nothing on Usain Bolt, but I'm pretty sure I'm still going to have a hard time beating him.  What makes you think that Ukrainians don't share all the weaknesses of the Russian army?  Everything that Russians are bad at, Ukrainians are worse at.  Both militaries fell apart after USSR crumbled, but only one of them took steps to rebuild and modernize.

Indeed, the Ukrainian military seems in a poor state, lacking supplies, but at least their morale has lifted from the lows of the Crimean disaster. 

That probably makes any further escalation more worrying still, if the Ukrainians don't put up much of a defence, then other actors have little to time to then decide what to do; 'The West' put up or shut up time?  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 06, 2014, 09:41:43 PM
Will the Poles intervene?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 10:34:10 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 08:41:03 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 06, 2014, 08:33:36 PM
The Ukes don't have to be good, just good enough to stop the Russians.
The guy who finished 7th in the 100 meter dash in the Olympics may have nothing on Usain Bolt, but I'm pretty sure I'm still going to have a hard time beating him.  What makes you think that Ukrainians don't share all the weaknesses of the Russian army?  Everything that Russians are bad at, Ukrainians are worse at.  Both militaries fell apart after USSR crumbled, but only one of them took steps to rebuild and modernize.

I don't know what would happen if they went at it.  However attacking is harder then defending.  If they both suck at advancing but Russia sucks only slightly less at it while both are average at defending, then victory would go to Ukraine.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:36:44 PM
Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.
It's not about gaining, it's about avoiding a loss.  The Russian media has zombified the Russian populace into believing that the "separatists" are brave freedom fighters defending themselves against fascist junta.  Letting them get slaughtered wouldn't go down well.  I guess you can zombify them again to convince them that it's no big deal, but nationalist propaganda is dangerous because it tends to work like a ratchet.  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2014, 11:40:23 PM
A rich, mellifluous metaphor.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:42:56 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2014, 11:40:23 PM
A rich, mellifluous metaphor.
:hug: I have a way with words.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 06, 2014, 11:52:31 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsolofemininity.blogs.com%2F.a%2F6a00d8341c7a1453ef0133f415b25f970b-320wi&hash=94943664235c5824f62a4214808e04a74d42e0cb)

Have you read it? If so, did you find it helpful?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:53:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:36:44 PM
Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.
It's not about gaining, it's about avoiding a loss.  The Russian media has zombified the Russian populace into believing that the "separatists" are brave freedom fighters defending themselves against fascist junta.  Letting them get slaughtered wouldn't go down well.  I guess you can zombify them again to convince them that it's no big deal, but nationalist propaganda is dangerous because it tends to work like a ratchet.  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.

Well, I can tell you one thing, there'll be little more than stern words and maybe new sanctions from the EU in such a case.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 07, 2014, 12:24:45 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.

I can't help but see a flaw in this as a long term strategy.  Russia isn't the USSR, it sorta needs that trade with the evil West.  Russia is no liberal democracy but they aren't a police state either.  If food prices increase to much and lots of people lose their jobs,  Putin could face an uprising or a coup.  I would like to state that this isn't a desirable for us either.  Instability in Russia could lead to honest to God civil war or someone much worse then Putin.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 07, 2014, 12:54:20 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 07, 2014, 12:24:45 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 06, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
Not sure what could be gained from invading. If they keep supporting "separatists" and keep the East in chaos, they can keep the Ukrainian unstable until someone comes into power who is to their liking. Meanwhile they can spew all kinds of rhetoric about the evil West, and the Fascists in Kiev.

I can't help but see a flaw in this as a long term strategy.  Russia isn't the USSR, it sorta needs that trade with the evil West.  Russia is no liberal democracy but they aren't a police state either.  If food prices increase to much and lots of people lose their jobs,  Putin could face an uprising or a coup.  I would like to state that this isn't a desirable for us either.  Instability in Russia could lead to honest to God civil war or someone much worse then Putin.
I don't think this is a good strategy at all for Russia either.  But dictators that have been in power for a while tend to lose touch with reality.  Putin doesn't seem like someone pre-occupied with economy in any case, he seems like the type to dismiss economic trouble as temporary war pains.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 07, 2014, 03:47:49 AM
Yeah you guys shouldn't view this as what makes sense for Russia. Things are being decided on the basis of what makes sense for Putin staying in power. Pushing a huge-ass country like Ukraine into chaos for that purpose seems to be acceptable, clearly, so lets hope that WW3 is not on the list of acceptable outcomes for that end.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 07, 2014, 04:06:52 AM
What I find distressing are all the relativists in the West who are basically saying Putin is not nearly as bad as the U.S. when it comes to warmongering and surveillance state, so we should just leave him be.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 07, 2014, 04:16:38 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 07, 2014, 04:06:52 AM
What I find distressing are all the relativists in the West who are basically saying Putin is not nearly as bad as the U.S. when it comes to warmongering and surveillance state, so we should just leave him be.

yeah its maddening but IIRC there were voices like that about the Soviet Union as well for quite a while.

Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 07, 2014, 04:44:03 AM
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/743897

QuoteRussia is working on measures to close its airspace to Asia, Pacific-bound flights

Russian has banned Ukrainian air companies to make transit flights to a number of countries via Russia

MOSCOW, August 07. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia is working on measures to close its airspace to Western companies' flights to and from the Asia-Pacific region and also to change the points of entry and exit for charter flights, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a meeting of the Cabinet on Thursday.

"The current situation as it is, the Russian government is considering a number of retaliatory steps. I will mention some of them, but that does not mean that they will be introduced at once. The measures include a ban on transit flights by European and US air carriers to Southeast Asia, to the Asia-Pacific Region," Medvedev said.

"We are considering measures that would be an answer to the European Union's sanctions against the Russian air company Dobrolyot, which flied to Simferopol," he said.

Russian has banned Ukrainian air companies to make transit flights to a number of countries via Russia, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday.

He said the decision had already been taken.

Russia is working out measures to revise the rules of using Trans-Siberian routes, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said.

"Our country is ready to revise the rules of using Trans-Siberian routes, that is, denounce the agreed principles of upgrading the existing system of Trans-Siberian routes," he said at a government session.

The Russian Association of Air Transport Operators on Monday asked the government to take urgent measures to support the Dobrolet low-cost air carrier that has had to stop operation due to Western sanctions.

Russia's Dobrolyot, a low-cost airline, is 100-percent subsidiary of Russia's biggest air carrier Aeroflot. Its fleet includes two Boeings 737-800 NG and one Sukhoi Superjet-100. By the end of 2014, the company planned to add six more Boeings to its fleet. Both of its Boeings are leased from BBAM Aircraft Leasing and Management.

The Russian government is ready to introduce protective measures in the aircraft building, shipbuilding and automobile manufacturing industries, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a Cabinet meeting on Thursday.

"We are potentially ready to introduce protective measures in aircraft building, shipbuilding, automobile manufacturing industries and in other sectors, but we will do this sensibly," he said.
The prime minister also said the government realised the importance of co-operation in this sphere and looked realistically on the country's capabilities.

Not the first time they threatened this. Last year or the year before they were threatening the same if Western airlines didn't disclose full passenger data (including credit card data etc.) for all transit flights (which EU law prohibits).
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 07, 2014, 05:15:58 AM
I don't think the west should blink on these. If Russia goes full-blown isolation and economic de-coupling from the EU, it will hurt the EU on the short term, for sure, but it will destroy Russia.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 07, 2014, 06:35:57 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 07, 2014, 04:16:38 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 07, 2014, 04:06:52 AM
What I find distressing are all the relativists in the West who are basically saying Putin is not nearly as bad as the U.S. when it comes to warmongering and surveillance state, so we should just leave him be.

yeah its maddening but IIRC there were voices like that about the Soviet Union as well for quite a while.

Yeah, but there's a vocal minority at least who thinks that while Russia is an increasingly oppressive regime the West is governed by economic interest only, without compassion, or regard for the will of the people, and that it doesn't matter which political party is in charge.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: KRonn on August 07, 2014, 07:59:52 AM
Quote from: mongers on August 06, 2014, 04:13:07 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 06, 2014, 04:10:19 PM
Ukes ain't gonna be pushovers on this. Putin is a fool.

To a large extent I agree.

There was a time within the first week after the Crimea takeover, when Ukrainian morale was so low, Russian forces could have occupied all of East Ukraine in a couple of days.

I'd think that Ukrainian morale is pretty high now as they've had some decent success fighting the Russian troops separatists. But it's going to be a slugfest between two somewhat ragged and under equipped armies.

Besides, the US has been sending MRE's to Ukraine, so yeah, that should tip the balance to the Ukes.    ;)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 07, 2014, 08:07:15 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 07, 2014, 06:35:57 AM
Yeah, but there's a vocal minority at least who thinks that while Russia is an increasingly oppressive regime the West is governed by economic interest only, without compassion, or regard for the will of the people, and that it doesn't matter which political party is in charge.

They said this about us during the Cold War.  There is a certain minority who always thinks Russia is somehow morally purer because they do not care about like money and stuff. 
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 07, 2014, 08:48:44 AM
From a distance, it seems like this is a disaster for eastern ukraine. It was a wealthier region of the country, with a good bit of government support going to the region. Now it is completely destabilized and basically a no go area for the rest of the world. It is also rather politically isolated.

Getting annexed by Russia may be their best outcome, although that could be a bitter pill to swallow for those that want to remain Ukrainian considering that is the best outcome because Russia is fucking up the other ones.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 07, 2014, 09:08:42 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:36:44 PM
  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.
Siegy would say you can lead a sheep to water, but you can't make him swim.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DontSayBanana on August 09, 2014, 09:08:37 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 07, 2014, 09:08:42 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 06, 2014, 11:36:44 PM
  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.
Siegy would say you can lead a sheep goat to water, but you can't make him swim.

FTFY.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 09, 2014, 04:09:31 PM
I think it's do or die for Putin now. (at least from his perspective)

If Russia's to do something it's likely Sunday/Monday morning?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Hansmeister on August 09, 2014, 06:58:04 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 06, 2014, 07:12:14 PM
How many divisions are headquartered at Benning? I saw a shitload of tanks there and it's an infantry base. It was many hundreds of them at least.

None.  There is one armored BDE. As well as the armor school house.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Hansmeister on August 09, 2014, 07:05:26 PM
If Russia is going to invade they will have to do it in the next four weeks before they have to release the draftees and rotate new units into position.  If they don't attack by early September then Ukraine is probably safe until spring.

Ukraine has surrounded the two largest Russian strongholds and unless Russia intervenes more directly it won't be long before the resistance will mostly collapse and Russia will look weak.  At the same time due to the positioning of the Ukrainian forces in order to surround the rebels their position is extremely exposed in case of a Russian attack.  I would expect heavy Ukrainian losses in the early phase before they can stabilize the front about 50-100 kilometers west of donetz. However, Russia's forces are too small and weak to push beyond that front and would be involved in a slow, grinding war with Ukraine that they have little hope of winning in the long term (ukraine's motivation to resist will be stronger than Russia's motivation to fight).
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 09, 2014, 07:19:14 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 09, 2014, 04:09:31 PM
I think it's do or die for Putin now. (at least from his perspective)
I don't think he'll accept being defeated by Ukraine, which is how it'll seem.

There are also reports that he's fired all the people who warned him/were negative about this whole thing.

Add in the stories about Lavrov saying there's an impending humanitarian disaster in Donetsk and it seems more likely than not.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 09, 2014, 07:22:10 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 09, 2014, 07:19:14 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 09, 2014, 04:09:31 PM
I think it's do or die for Putin now. (at least from his perspective)
I don't think he'll accept being defeated by Ukraine, which is how it'll seem.

There are also reports that he's fired all the people who warned him/were negative about this whole thing.

Add in the stories about Lavrov saying there's an impending humanitarian disaster in Donetsk and it seems more likely than not.

Yes, I'm tilting towards tanks rolling, and soon.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 09, 2014, 11:37:37 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on August 09, 2014, 07:05:26 PM
If Russia is going to invade they will have to do it in the next four weeks before they have to release the draftees and rotate new units into position.

Is there a possibility of a presidential decree extending the service period for the draftees because of "national crisis?"


QuoteIf they don't attack by early September then Ukraine is probably safe until spring.

Agreed, unless Putin is stupid enough to start a campaign across soggy/muddy terrain in Autumn.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Siege on August 09, 2014, 11:56:47 PM
Got not comments.
I am not sure how much Putin values his manpower.
He probably knows his manpower generation rate. I don't.

I know Israel got 50k a year.
Russia could potentially have 5m a year, though I doubt they have the economic power to sustain such an standing army.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Hansmeister on August 10, 2014, 12:01:39 PM
Quote from: Syt on August 09, 2014, 11:37:37 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on August 09, 2014, 07:05:26 PM
If Russia is going to invade they will have to do it in the next four weeks before they have to release the draftees and rotate new units into position.

Is there a possibility of a presidential decree extending the service period for the draftees because of "national crisis?"


QuoteIf they don't attack by early September then Ukraine is probably safe until spring.

Agreed, unless Putin is stupid enough to start a campaign across soggy/muddy terrain in Autumn.

Extending the draft period beyond the 12 months would be extremely unpopular, to say the least. If they were actively engaged in Ukraine it would be possible to garner public support for it, but if they're just sitting on the border waiting the political pressure would be too intense to keep holding them.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 10, 2014, 02:58:21 PM
Honestly I don't know what Putin's end game is anymore.  I figured he would have done his thing months ago.  I wonder if the Russian volunteers aren't actually his idea, but some of his underlings trying to to please Putin or force him to invade or something.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Brain on August 10, 2014, 03:15:55 PM
Manchukuo. :wub:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 10, 2014, 06:16:30 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 10, 2014, 02:58:21 PM
Honestly I don't know what Putin's end game is anymore.  I figured he would have done his thing months ago.  I wonder if the Russian volunteers aren't actually his idea, but some of his underlings trying to to please Putin or force him to invade or something.
My guess now (since the Malaysian Air flight) is that he's improvising. I also don't think he'll tolerate being 'beaten' by Ukraine. If that's true, and I've no idea, then it seems a dangerous combo.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: KRonn on August 11, 2014, 10:09:35 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 10, 2014, 06:16:30 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 10, 2014, 02:58:21 PM
Honestly I don't know what Putin's end game is anymore.  I figured he would have done his thing months ago.  I wonder if the Russian volunteers aren't actually his idea, but some of his underlings trying to to please Putin or force him to invade or something.
My guess now (since the Malaysian Air flight) is that he's improvising. I also don't think he'll tolerate being 'beaten' by Ukraine. If that's true, and I've no idea, then it seems a dangerous combo.

My feeling is that Putin is nastily stuck between two vises of his own making. He's pretty badly stuck now. He can't afford to lose in Ukraine as it would be a huge loss of face, unless a face saving measure could be created but he's passed that up before. There's also his quest for territory for rebuilding Russia, which is his main motivation. So if the Ukrainian military continues to defeat the Russian operatives locals then he'll want to move in under the original guise of safeguarding the local Russian population and that line of propaganda.

However, the other side of the vise he's caught between is the idea that Ukraine isn't going to go quietly as Crimea did. Russian forces will be heavily engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces which will be a mess for him, even if he wins, which is most likely.  But he may push the West into creating real sanctions, such as the US finally deciding to more strongly develop natural gas with the idea of becoming the supplier for Europe in place of Russia. Russia can't afford that. Or there may be other energy measures which the West or US may put in place for the shorter term, since developing natural gas supplies to supply Europe would take at least a couple or few years to get going. But the long term energy strategy could be a problem for Putin if he overplays his hand.

Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 11, 2014, 10:15:56 AM
One thing I have been thinking about: surely the main reason behind lacklustre western sanctions is the economic interests of the politicians involved. But also... do they (and we) REALLY want an economic collapse in Russia?

As sweet as it would be to punish Putin and his supporters for destabilising the world, it would mean a volatile and unpredictable political situation in an already pretty radicalised power with thousands of nuclear warheads.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 11, 2014, 10:23:09 AM
Well, Exxon Mobil just let everybody know this morning what they think about sanctions:  they don't increase shareholder value.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2014, 10:24:53 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 11, 2014, 10:15:56 AM
One thing I have been thinking about: surely the main reason behind lacklustre western sanctions is the economic interests of the politicians involved. But also... do they (and we) REALLY want an economic collapse in Russia?

As sweet as it would be to punish Putin and his supporters for destabilising the world, it would mean a volatile and unpredictable political situation in an already pretty radicalised power with thousands of nuclear warheads.
I think it's also a concern about retaliatory sanctions.  I just saw a news report yesterday on TV about how American economy is reeling from the newly imposed embargo on American food products.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 10:33:34 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Things will get real interesting politically in Europe when the Leviathan Gas Field goes online in a couple of years ... it is owned, by of all countries, Israel.  :lol:

Allegedly, there is enough gas there to supply Europe for 20 years - and that's just proven reserves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of central, eastern and southeastern Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Fixed!
Other countries rely on other sources like nuclear power (France or in a smaller degree Sweden) or different gas/oil providers and/or energy mix such as the Iberian Peninsula, too far away to depend on Russian gas. Germany is definitively MittelEuropa in this one, out of his own stupidity.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 11, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
Finally the evil jews can really start controlling Europe.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 11, 2014, 10:43:14 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of central eastern and southeastern Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Fixed!
Other countries rely on other sources like nuclear power (France or in a smaller degree Sweden) or different gas/oil providers and/or energy mix such as the Iberian Peninsula, too far away to depend on Russian gas.

Russia is one of Spain's fastest growing export markets. And there's all the industry built around rich Russians coming on vacation, in a lot of high-endish stores stuff is labelled in euros, dollars and rubles.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:45:28 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 11, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
Finally the evil Russian/Ashkenazi Jews can really start controlling Europe.

So Putin and Lieberman will control all gas to Europe?  :hmm:
Not sure if the Leviathan gas field claims are settled with the border in Lebanon still in dispute and the possible extent of a Gaza strip exclusive economic zone.
Last time I heard of it, Israel more or less shared it with Cyprus and Greece to export it to Europe. Could this possibly help fuel the animosity with Erdogan?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:46:44 AM
Quote from: celedhring on August 11, 2014, 10:43:14 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:38:07 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2014, 10:29:41 AM
Most of central eastern and southeastern Europe can't afford to have the gas shut off though. Surely that's the real problem.

Fixed!
Other countries rely on other sources like nuclear power (France or in a smaller degree Sweden) or different gas/oil providers and/or energy mix such as the Iberian Peninsula, too far away to depend on Russian gas.



Russia is one of Spain's fastest growing export markets. And there's all the industry built around rich Russians coming on vacation, in a lot of high-endish stores stuff is labelled in euros, dollars and rubles.

Does that include gas? If so, Spain is even dumber than I thought.
Portugal relies more on Venezuela, Nigeria and Algeria. Granted, not so nice places but unlikely to use gas as a weapon à la Putin.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 11, 2014, 10:49:43 AM
No, I was saying that despite not depending on them for gas, we have strong economic ties with Russia.

We mostly use gas from Algeria, Nigeria and Qatar IIRC.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:52:25 AM
Quote from: celedhring on August 11, 2014, 10:49:43 AM
No, I was saying that despite not depending on them for gas, we have strong economic ties with Russia.

QED
That's not the point MIM was making, I disagreed with his claim while saying nothing about other economic ties.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 11, 2014, 10:54:46 AM
And I say that at least one of these countries you removed from MIM's list has reasons to oppose strong economic sanctions against Russia, which is the original point that Tamas/DGuller were discussing.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 11:33:00 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 10:45:28 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 11, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
Finally the evil Russian/Ashkenazi Jews can really start controlling Europe.

So Putin and Lieberman will control all gas to Europe?  :hmm:
Not sure if the Leviathan gas field claims are settled with the border in Lebanon still in dispute and the possible extent of a Gaza strip exclusive economic zone.
Last time I heard of it, Israel more or less shared it with Cyprus and Greece to export it to Europe. Could this possibly help fuel the animosity with Erdogan?

Allegedly, the dispute with Lebanon is settled - at least, over these fields.

QuoteIn August 2010, Lebanon submitted to the United Nations its official view regarding the maritime border, indicating that it considered the Tamar and Leviathan gas fields to be outside Lebanese territory (though it indicated other prospective fields in the region may be within Lebanese territory). The US expressed support for the Lebanon proposal.

Dunno if any possible Gaza zone would impact them. In any event, the current lunatics in charge of that particular asylum are unlikely to be able to assert any claims.

Much more serious is tensions between Israel and Greek Cyprus on the one hand, and Turkey on the other. Naturally, the Turks would like a slice of the action, based on their invasion claims to Turkish Cyprus ... and they aren't on the best of terms with Israel at the moment puting it mildly.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 11, 2014, 11:54:37 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 11:33:00 AM

Dunno if any possible Gaza zone would impact them. In any event, the current lunatics in charge of that particular asylum are unlikely to be able to assert any claims.

The PA could very well do that, even as a mere token chip during negotiations, be it with Israel or even with Hamas (persona non grata internationally).

Quote
Much more serious is tensions between Israel and Greek Cyprus on the one hand, and Turkey on the other. Naturally, the Turks would like a slice of the action, based on their invasion claims to Turkish Cyprus ... and they aren't on the best of terms with Israel at the moment puting it mildly.

That's what I was referring to. De Jure, Turkish Cyprus claims mean nothing though and with Cyprus already and Greece in the EU, there's a possible veto at every turn.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on August 11, 2014, 11:57:00 AM
Quote from: KRonn on August 11, 2014, 10:09:35 AMMy feeling is that Putin is nastily stuck between two vises of his own making. He's pretty badly stuck now. He can't afford to lose in Ukraine as it would be a huge loss of face, unless a face saving measure could be created but he's passed that up before. There's also his quest for territory for rebuilding Russia, which is his main motivation. So if the Ukrainian military continues to defeat the Russian operatives locals then he'll want to move in under the original guise of safeguarding the local Russian population and that line of propaganda.

However, the other side of the vise he's caught between is the idea that Ukraine isn't going to go quietly as Crimea did. Russian forces will be heavily engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces which will be a mess for him, even if he wins, which is most likely.  But he may push the West into creating real sanctions, such as the US finally deciding to more strongly develop natural gas with the idea of becoming the supplier for Europe in place of Russia. Russia can't afford that. Or there may be other energy measures which the West or US may put in place for the shorter term, since developing natural gas supplies to supply Europe would take at least a couple or few years to get going. But the long term energy strategy could be a problem for Putin if he overplays his hand.

This is what I think + I think something to consider is Putin may not actually "want" the Eastern Ukrainian regions with higher Russian populations. I think he misjudged early on that they would massively support breaking away from Kiev, maybe just slightly less so than Crimea did. So not only does Putin not want to "lose" to Ukraine as it will cost him what he believes is something extremely important (his credibility as a strong man) but I think he also doesn't want to actually go in both for the costs involved in going in direct but also the high cost of winning. Crimea is a net negative economically for Russia. If Eastern Ukraine isn't all the hot to be part of Russia (and it's suggested by the mild recruitment rate for the rebels having to be supplemented by Russian operatives that it isn't that hot to be part of Russia) then keeping it will be kinda unpleasant. Plus, while Eastern Ukraine is better off than Crimea, it's still likely to be an economic net negative.

Crimea you can at least argue there is a larger strategic concern (the Russian naval base), but it's even harder from a strict realpolitik perspective to justify taking Eastern Ukraine ravaged by insurgency and likely to need years of subsidy from Moscow (if not permanent subsidy.)

To me I think a "win" for Putin is Eastern Ukraine becoming like Transnistria or South Ossetia, but it's looking like he may not have a lot of options for that. Especially because now that he's set the precedent of accepting Crimea with open arms, let's say Putin goes in heavy and fully props up the Donetsk People's Republic. How does it look if the DPR wants in Russia, can Putin actually push to keep them in a shaky state like Transnistria/South Ossetia, with all the rhetoric he's made about greater Russia and all that I think that's a harder thing to do politically than it was before he set the precedent involved with accepting Crimea with open arms.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 11, 2014, 11:57:56 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 10:33:34 AM
Things will get real interesting politically in Europe when the Leviathan Gas Field goes online in a couple of years ... it is owned, by of all countries, Israel.  :lol:

Allegedly, there is enough gas there to supply Europe for 20 years - and that's just proven reserves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field

In 21st Century, Jews gas Europe!
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 11, 2014, 11:58:34 AM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 11, 2014, 11:57:56 AM
In 21st Century, Jews gas Europe!

:lol: So wrong yet so right.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 11, 2014, 12:29:46 PM
That's awesome
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 12:43:02 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 11, 2014, 11:57:56 AM

In 21st Century, Jews gas Europe!

:lol:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: grumbler on August 11, 2014, 01:07:00 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 11, 2014, 11:57:56 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 11, 2014, 10:33:34 AM
Things will get real interesting politically in Europe when the Leviathan Gas Field goes online in a couple of years ... it is owned, by of all countries, Israel.  :lol:

Allegedly, there is enough gas there to supply Europe for 20 years - and that's just proven reserves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field

In 21st Century, Jews gas Europe!
:(  I wish I'd said that.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 11, 2014, 01:09:15 PM
Russia has announced it will start sending "humanitarian" convoys into Ukraine.  Article quotes Lavrov as saying Ukraine agreed, but doesn't provide any details.

http://rt.com/news/179496-lavrov-humanitarian-corridor-agreed/
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 11, 2014, 01:18:31 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 11, 2014, 10:15:56 AM
One thing I have been thinking about: surely the main reason behind lacklustre western sanctions is the economic interests of the politicians involved. But also... do they (and we) REALLY want an economic collapse in Russia?
I think it's more the economic interests of their electorate - gleefully encouraged by politicians.

Also I don't think the current sanctions are lacklustre. The Russian response indicates they don't either.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 11, 2014, 03:25:49 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 11, 2014, 01:09:15 PM
Russia has announced it will start sending "humanitarian" convoys into Ukraine.

"Brought to you by Exxon Mobil. Put a tiger in your T-90 tank!"
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 11, 2014, 03:27:04 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

Lol. PEECEKEEPINK
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: crazy canuck on August 11, 2014, 03:33:41 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion. Through passion, I gain strength. Through
strength, I gain power. Through power, I gain victory. Through victory....


or alternatively Putin could have been reading the line

War is Peace



But I suspect he hasn't read his Orwell.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 11, 2014, 03:51:54 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 11, 2014, 03:33:41 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion. Through passion, I gain strength. Through
strength, I gain power. Through power, I gain victory. Through victory....


or alternatively Putin could have been reading the line

War is Peace



But I suspect he hasn't read his Orwell.

He may very well have, perhaps taking it as an operations manual rather than a warning. 
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2014, 03:57:39 PM
I watched some Russian TV news this weekend.  Orwell was an amateur.  That wasn't a slanted coverage, that was Protocols of the Elders of Zion class of propaganda.  And it works very, very well.  :(
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Brain on August 11, 2014, 03:59:35 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 11, 2014, 03:57:39 PM
I watched some Russian TV news this weekend.  Orwell was an amateur.  That wasn't a slanted coverage, that was Protocols of the Elders of Zion class of propaganda.  And it works very, very well.  :(

You support Putin officially now?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2014, 04:00:48 PM
Quote from: The Brain on August 11, 2014, 03:59:35 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 11, 2014, 03:57:39 PM
I watched some Russian TV news this weekend.  Orwell was an amateur.  That wasn't a slanted coverage, that was Protocols of the Elders of Zion class of propaganda.  And it works very, very well.  :(

You support Putin officially now?
:mad: They made some convincing points.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 11, 2014, 04:04:09 PM

Seems like Putin is pushing back, Reuters are reporting this 'aid convoy'/invasion is near imminent.

QuoteRussia sending aid convoy to Ukraine despite Western warnings of 'invasion pretext'

By Adrian Croft and Sergei Karpukhin

BRUSSELS/DONETSK Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:48pm EDT

(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Monday Russia is sending an aid convoy to eastern Ukraine despite urgent Western warnings against using humanitarian help as a pretext for an invasion.

With Ukraine reporting Russia has massed 45,000 troops on its border, NATO said there was a "high probability" that Moscow could intervene militarily in the country's east, where Kiev's forces are closing in on pro-Russian separatists.

Western countries believe that Putin - who has whipped up the passions of Russians with a nationalist campaign in state-controlled media since annexing Crimea from Ukraine in March - could now send his forces into the east to head off a humiliating rebel defeat.
......

rest of article here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/11/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0GA0C620140811 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/11/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0GA0C620140811)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 04:05:35 PM
I'm growing very pessimistic that full scale war can be prevented. It looks more and more like this will become all-out war.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2014, 04:05:58 PM
 :hmm: Have 2012 election results been certified already, or can we still do a recount?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Barrister on August 11, 2014, 05:15:24 PM
BBC reporting Ukraine has in fact agreed, though things seem very much "up in the air":

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28743478
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 11, 2014, 05:19:48 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 11, 2014, 05:15:24 PM
BBC reporting Ukraine has in fact agreed, though things seem very much "up in the air":

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28743478

Yes, the Russians are now promising not to send any tanks; so it'll turn out ok.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 12, 2014, 12:44:57 AM
I can't read Russian but pics are coming out of convoys pulling out.



http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/504939.html

Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 12, 2014, 08:15:59 AM
Update: Red Cross announced that they don't have the faintest idea about what could be in those trucks, so Ukraine has denied access for the convoy. I guess if they try to enter regardless, a convenient Casus Belli will be served when Ukraine stops them.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 12, 2014, 08:18:42 AM
Also I haven't found them but allegedly there are photos of the "red cross" trucks parked in front of a military base in Russia with Russian soldiers around them.

Stay tuned folks, this might be it!
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 08:45:59 AM
Considering Putin's reverse embargo on western foodstuffs imported into Russia last week that is going to have a major impact on the availabilty of certain goods over the next year, I'd say launching a large, extended ground excursion into the Ukraine in August would be a new level of disregard for the daily plight of your average Ivan Vodka Shot.

Sure, it's not 1916, but if I remember my Russian history correctly, they get real pissy when it comes to a lack of food.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:06:27 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 08:45:59 AM
Considering Putin's reverse embargo on western foodstuffs imported into Russia last week that is going to have a major impact on the availabilty of certain goods over the next year, I'd say launching a large, extended ground excursion into the Ukraine in August would be a new level of disregard for the daily plight of your average Ivan Vodka Shot.

Sure, it's not 1916, but if I remember my Russian history correctly, they get real pissy when it comes to a lack of food.
It's not like other countries can't pick up the slack.  There are plenty of countries that look at sanctions as an opportunity, not a moral imperative.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 09:08:27 AM
I don't think Hungarian beets are going to be an acceptable alternative to French beef.  Maybe for you.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 09:09:05 AM
MAH BEET SIRLOIN TIPS
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:18:49 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 09:08:27 AM
I don't think Hungarian beets are going to be an acceptable alternative to French beef.  Maybe for you.
That's just silly.  In this day and age, for a country of Russia's wealth level, having enough food is not a concern.  It may be an economic drain to have to look for alternative sources, as one would assume that Western countries held a market share for some economic efficiency reasons, but it's improbable that Russia is going to be starved out of aggression.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on August 12, 2014, 09:24:25 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:06:27 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 08:45:59 AM
Considering Putin's reverse embargo on western foodstuffs imported into Russia last week that is going to have a major impact on the availabilty of certain goods over the next year, I'd say launching a large, extended ground excursion into the Ukraine in August would be a new level of disregard for the daily plight of your average Ivan Vodka Shot.

Sure, it's not 1916, but if I remember my Russian history correctly, they get real pissy when it comes to a lack of food.
It's not like other countries can't pick up the slack.  There are plenty of countries that look at sanctions as an opportunity, not a moral imperative.

The numbers I was reading said that it affected $9bn of $43bn worth of food imports into Russia. Most "staples" apparently are not imported from Western countries. The stuff it impacts is a lot of middle class and upper middle class goods like French cheeses and other "premium" items, things like Frosted Flakes from America and such. The people in Russia that really would be put out by it are the urban middle class / upper class, who coincidentally are the 20% or so of the population that don't actively support Putin.

They can certainly replace the food in terms of amount, but wealthier consumers who are "brand" conscious aren't going to fully accept cheese from say, New Zealand, as equal in quality to the gourmet European cheese they were eating before.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on August 12, 2014, 09:26:31 AM
Also, it's possible the aid convoy really is an aid convoy. Part of Russia's problem has been support for the anti-Kiev pro-Moscow movement in Eastern Ukraine hasn't been as expected, send some free stuff their way and it boosts Russia's standing among the people, I would think. It's similar to how Hamas built up so much loyalty in Gaza, they were the only political group that was doing humanitarian stuff (so was the UN and other groups, but they obviously don't run for Palestinian public offices.)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:34:15 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on August 12, 2014, 09:26:31 AM
Also, it's possible the aid convoy really is an aid convoy. Part of Russia's problem has been support for the anti-Kiev pro-Moscow movement in Eastern Ukraine hasn't been as expected, send some free stuff their way and it boosts Russia's standing among the people, I would think. It's similar to how Hamas built up so much loyalty in Gaza, they were the only political group that was doing humanitarian stuff (so was the UN and other groups, but they obviously don't run for Palestinian public offices.)

From what I've read, the problem that the pro-Moscow seperatists have had is that they are just the opposite: they consist mostly of "volunteers" (many of them Chechens) and local thugs, and intimidation and looting has been rife from the latter. In fact, at one point the "volunteers" - who are at least disciplined - essentially cleaned out some of the thugs, because the widespread looting from civilians was eroding what support they had among the populace.

I'm not sure an aid convoy or two is going to reverse that and make for widespread enthusiasm. I suspect most of the population at this point just wants them, and the war, gone, and doesn't care all that much who the government is.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:37:51 AM
I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.  I hope I'm wrong, or I hope that Putin gets scared of the consequences at 11th hour, but I don't see it being a highly likely possibility anymore.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:37:51 AM
I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.  I hope I'm wrong, or I hope that Putin gets scared of the consequences at 11th hour, but I don't see it being a highly likely possibility anymore.

I suspect you are right, while likewise hoping you are wrong.

I was arguing the point with my parents the other day, and they were talking about this, that or the other action by Ukraine being a trigger for the war. My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: KRonn on August 12, 2014, 10:30:44 AM
Quote from: Hansmeister on August 11, 2014, 03:25:07 PM
Supposedly, the Russians have been spray painting "peacekeeping force" on the sides of their military vehicles along the Ukrainian border.

I bet at this point the signs look more like Peacekeeping Force Invasion Force.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 10:57:23 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 11:13:31 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 10:57:23 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.
Spoken like a man that hasn't encountered too many Russians on the Internet.  Russians do not buy into the brazen propaganda that CNN publishes 24/7.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 11:18:01 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 10:57:23 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 09:44:19 AM
My point was this: Russia has got to the point where a trigger isn't really necessary: they can simply lie and make shit up, whatever they feel like, as they are increasingly doing - what's the difference? Few in the West believe Putin any more, even the usual useful idiots - and the ones that do will not be put off by yet more blatant lying.

The Russian public has already been conditioned to believing the war is justified.

The Russian population does have access to the Western press, internet, etc.  They can be spun but that there are some limits.  The lies have to have some kernel of believability, and the more "truthy" they can be, the more confident Putin can be about pushing things.  The idea of physically attacking Ukrainian "little brothers" is not popular.

The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

The "spin" is that Russia is not attacking Ukrainian "little brothers", but protecting the vulnerable Russian minorities from these nasty fascists in the current Ukrainian government. From what I've seen, this "spin" is mostly believed in Russia by the general population despite internet access etc. - indeed, Russians are all over the Internet (apparently) spreading variants of this message. The anger isn't at "Ukrainians" in general but at these supposed "fascists".
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Legbiter on August 12, 2014, 11:20:11 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 09:37:51 AM
I'm leaning heavily towards it being a pretext of some kind, or part of the plan.  What I watched on Russian news was very alarming.  The kind of propaganda that is whipped up doesn't have an off switch;  such propaganda can only be a precursor to war.

Well yes, the narrative is brave Russia defending innocent compatriots from genocidal Kiev fascists. Then letting the "resistance" get killed off by the Ukes won't play well with your average Ivan.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 12, 2014, 12:28:27 PM
It's not like the Europeans are worried for the Ukranians;  Europeans give about as much of a shit about the Ukrainians as they have historically for Poland.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 12, 2014, 12:31:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 12, 2014, 11:13:31 AM
Spoken like a man that hasn't encountered too many Russians on the Internet.  Russians do not buy into the brazen propaganda that CNN publishes 24/7.

She's on CNN now?  :w00t:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM
Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 11:18:01 AM
The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

There are "far right" parties and factions in Ukrainian politics that played a role in the Maidan.
The Ukrainian state is quite centralized and there is a real case to be made for some degree of de-centralization.  The Russian language is not an official state language despite its widespread use, particularly in the eastern regions.

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 12, 2014, 01:30:53 PM
I think it should be said that Russia has long despised Ukraine.  They don't regard it as a real country.  I don't think invading part of it will hurt their feelings much.  As for the ethnic Ukrainians at best they view them in the patronizing manner of "little Russians".  At worst Fascists or collaborators of Fascists.  This attitude is a lot older then the current crisis or even the creation of an independent Ukrainian state.  Russians have never been shy about killing Ukrainians.  I don't suppose they'll start now.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 12, 2014, 01:34:12 PM
I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 12, 2014, 01:34:12 PM
I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.

That's a really tortured analogy that really doesn't seem helpful.

Historically, there never was a Ukrainian state until the Russian Civil War.  You had the Kievan Rus, but it didn't identify itself as being "Ukrainian".  You had the Cossack Hetmanate in the 17th century, but again not a "Ukrainian" state.

But what there was was an identifiable group of people speaking an generally identifiable and unique language with a shared cultural identity.  And with the rise of nationalism in the 19th century they identified themselves as the Ukrainian nation and, like many others, sought to form a nation-state.

Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 12, 2014, 02:12:15 PM
Yeah, Poland had a pretty good run.  It was only when it's neighbors all allied together was Poland destroyed.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 02:19:21 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM
Quote from: Malthus on August 12, 2014, 11:18:01 AM
The central narrative comming from Russia is that the current Ukrainian government is a bunch of fascists intent on persecuting the Russian speaking minority. This never had any truth to it.

There are "far right" parties and factions in Ukrainian politics that played a role in the Maidan.
The Ukrainian state is quite centralized and there is a real case to be made for some degree of de-centralization.  The Russian language is not an official state language despite its widespread use, particularly in the eastern regions.

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.

Sure. And having accepted the essential truth of that central narrative, Russians don't really need an "incident" over and above that to go to war to "protect minorities". They have all the reason they need - fascists are oppressing russian minorities.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Solmyr on August 12, 2014, 02:54:10 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Bohemia for Czechs? Moldavia and Wallachia for the Romanians?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: grumbler on August 12, 2014, 03:21:59 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on August 12, 2014, 02:54:10 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Bohemia for Czechs? Moldavia and Wallachia for the Romanians?
Don't interrupt a rant with facts.  It's rude.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 12, 2014, 03:22:10 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on August 12, 2014, 02:54:10 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Bohemia for Czechs? Moldavia and Wallachia for the Romanians?
indeed.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 12, 2014, 03:29:59 PM
In fairness, the word "state" is a stretch for most of those entities' history.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 03:36:19 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on August 12, 2014, 02:54:10 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Bohemia for Czechs? Moldavia and Wallachia for the Romanians?

Bohemia was as much a Czech state as the Hetmanate was a Ukrainian one.  Which is to say, a little bit, but not really.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 05:02:23 PM
Those snooty bohemians need to czech their privilege.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: PRC on August 12, 2014, 05:19:48 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 12, 2014, 01:34:12 PM
I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.

Sounds like Dan Carlin.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 12, 2014, 05:27:16 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 05:02:23 PM
Those snooty bohemians need to czech their privilege.

:)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 05:35:58 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.
And of course the example of the Baltic treatment of Russian minorities and the Euro blind eye to it is a real and unfortunate example.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 12, 2014, 05:40:51 PM
Quote from: PRC on August 12, 2014, 05:19:48 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 12, 2014, 01:34:12 PM
I was listening to a podcast talking about the crisis and the author mentioned that the Ukraine, kind of like Poland, is what he called a "plateau" nation - it is like a low lying island surrounded by water. It only ever seems to exist when the nations around it our weak, and when the nations around it are strong, it tends to get swallowed up by them, only to come back again when they recede.

Sounds like Dan Carlin.

It wasn't.  Believe me I rushed to his site to check if he had a new common sense out :P

I guess it could have been an old one from early in the crisis though.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 12, 2014, 06:24:34 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 03:36:19 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on August 12, 2014, 02:54:10 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 12, 2014, 01:44:14 PM
Lots of central and eastern european countries don't have long historical identities - the czechs, slovaks, slovenes, romanians have no historic state to point to.

Bohemia for Czechs? Moldavia and Wallachia for the Romanians?

Bohemia was as much a Czech state as the Hetmanate was a Ukrainian one.  Which is to say, a little bit, but not really.

State may have been a poor choice of words.  They don't have historical independent nations to point too.  These countries were independent prior to concepts of nationalism and so aren't "nations" in the same sense we think of nations today.  They lack real historic national identities.  Still, that's not all that bad.  You can (and many countries have), just make some up. After all, a nation is simply an imagined community.  Why not create an imagined history to go with it?  God knows the Russians have.  Hell, they have imagined history about things happened only a few decades ago that people still alive should be able to remember.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 12, 2014, 06:27:28 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 05:35:58 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.
And of course the example of the Baltic treatment of Russian minorities and the Euro blind eye to it is a real and unfortunate example.

That one worries me.  If the Russians remind Europe about how ethnic Russians have genuine grievances in the Baltic states, will that be enough to shake Euros resolve concerning the defense of those countries?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Larch on August 12, 2014, 07:05:34 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 05:35:58 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2014, 01:22:31 PM

These facts aren't proof of the propositions you state above, by any stretch.  But they are kernels of fact upon which, with much embellishment, that kind of narrative can be built.
And of course the example of the Baltic treatment of Russian minorities and the Euro blind eye to it is a real and unfortunate example.

Blind eye? IIRC the EU forced them (mostly Latvia and Estonia) to vastly improve their situation as a condition for entering the union.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 07:17:07 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 12, 2014, 07:05:34 PM
Blind eye? IIRC the EU forced them (mostly Latvia and Estonia) to vastly improve their situation as a condition for entering the union.
From my understanding either the situation was really awful prior to EU accession, or it was barely improved.

There's still lots of statelessness and restrictions on education.

I think the Baltics (and Cyprus and Romania and Bulgaria and, maybe, Hungary) were let in too soon which meant a little weakening of standards.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 12, 2014, 07:27:22 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 07:17:07 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 12, 2014, 07:05:34 PM
Blind eye? IIRC the EU forced them (mostly Latvia and Estonia) to vastly improve their situation as a condition for entering the union.
From my understanding either the situation was really awful prior to EU accession, or it was barely improved.

There's still lots of statelessness and restrictions on education.

I think the Baltics (and Cyprus and Romania and Bulgaria and, maybe, Hungary) were let in too soon which meant a little weakening of standards.

This point to a fundamental weakness in the EU, a ideologically motivated activist foreign policy without an organised military to provide substance/a back-bone.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 12, 2014, 07:41:21 PM
That is a good point Mongers.  I don't think it's limited to military, but the lack of strong organizing principle hurts the EU everywhere.  I think that was most evident in the aftermath of the 2008 crash.  While the US certainly suffered, a strong response from the federal government averted the worst of it, while in Europe individual governments essentially tried to beggar each other and everyone ended up worse off.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 12, 2014, 09:26:23 PM
Maybe the European community could use an organizer.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Ed Anger on August 12, 2014, 09:30:14 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 12, 2014, 09:26:23 PM
Maybe the European community could use an organizer.

Midnight basketball
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 12, 2014, 10:42:09 PM
I don't really get the Chechens in Donestk thing.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 13, 2014, 05:22:28 AM
Probably the matter of the aid trucks is settled: stuff from them shall be packed into Red Cross trucks at the border.

However, speaking of the border, it is now non-existent in a 100 kilometres wide sector: apparently while the Ukrainians were busy establishing the siege of Donetsk, the border guard forces at the south-east were surrounded by separatists. They held out for 3 weeks then now broke out and joined their main army at Donetsk, but as a result, there is absolutely no control over the Ukrainian-Russian border on a vast territory.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg3.wikia.nocookie.net%2F__cb20130413124057%2Fcso%2Fimages%2F3%2F32%2FFacepalm.jpg&hash=1887ccff0d00485c63ccd1dc811456f60cc78a9e)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Larch on August 13, 2014, 05:42:59 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 07:17:07 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 12, 2014, 07:05:34 PM
Blind eye? IIRC the EU forced them (mostly Latvia and Estonia) to vastly improve their situation as a condition for entering the union.
From my understanding either the situation was really awful prior to EU accession, or it was barely improved.

There's still lots of statelessness and restrictions on education.

I think the Baltics (and Cyprus and Romania and Bulgaria and, maybe, Hungary) were let in too soon which meant a little weakening of standards.

IIRC what they got mostly out of it was a path to citizenship that was previously blocked for them.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 08:55:37 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 13, 2014, 05:22:28 AM
Probably the matter of the aid trucks is settled: stuff from them shall be packed into Red Cross trucks at the border.

However, speaking of the border, it is now non-existent in a 100 kilometres wide sector: apparently while the Ukrainians were busy establishing the siege of Donetsk, the border guard forces at the south-east were surrounded by separatists. They held out for 3 weeks then now broke out and joined their main army at Donetsk, but as a result, there is absolutely no control over the Ukrainian-Russian border on a vast territory.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg3.wikia.nocookie.net%2F__cb20130413124057%2Fcso%2Fimages%2F3%2F32%2FFacepalm.jpg&hash=1887ccff0d00485c63ccd1dc811456f60cc78a9e)

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.  Those guys were in a precarious situation and it was probably the best decision to get them out.  Hopefully Ukrainian troops are able to keep moving against the "separatists".

The Russian insurgents must be made to feel that this was a real war, and that they are to be swept away by the hand of God, like the Jews of old.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 05:35:58 PM
And of course the example of the Baltic treatment of Russian minorities and the Euro blind eye to it is a real and unfortunate example.

Well they were put there to undermine the Baltic States' independence and enforce Russian power and control.  It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved.  You must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 13, 2014, 09:34:09 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2014, 05:35:58 PM
And of course the example of the Baltic treatment of Russian minorities and the Euro blind eye to it is a real and unfortunate example.

Well they were put there to undermine the Baltic States' independence and enforce Russian power and control.  It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved.  You must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

:yes:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 09:51:14 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AMYou must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

they're people, not influence counters on a game board.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 13, 2014, 09:53:56 AM
People can in fact be influence counters on a game board, when they are treated as such.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:01:08 AM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 09:51:14 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AMYou must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

they're people, not influence counters on a game board.

They're people who should be repatriated back to Russia.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:01:32 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 13, 2014, 09:53:56 AMPeople can in fact be influence counters on a game board, when they are treated as such.

a minority population can be used to justify war or extend influence. but, that's different from turning a blind eye to discrimination against a group of people because of a history completely unrelated to those specific individuals. boris isn't responsible for what russia does or did
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:02:44 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:01:08 AMThey're people who should be repatriated back to Russia.

if the african countries started systematically deporting whites forcefully and at gunpoint, would you agree with that?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 10:06:29 AM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 09:51:14 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AMYou must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

they're people, not influence counters on a game board.

They were people moved to the Baltic States to act as Russia's influence counters.  They are victims here.  I specifically said that.  So...what are you lecturing me on here?  That I should ignore realities and instead demand sunshine and lollipops for all?

Edit: By the way really glad you are posting a lot more here.  You add a lot to the discussions.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:12:35 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 10:06:29 AMThey were people moved to the Baltic States to act as Russia's influence counters.  They victims here.  I specifically said that.  So...what are you lecturing me on here?  That I should ignore realities and instead demand sunshine and lollipops for all?

you seemed to be excusing the discrimination based off an event that occurred many decades ago.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:16:02 AM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:02:44 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:01:08 AMThey're people who should be repatriated back to Russia.

if the african countries started systematically deporting whites forcefully and at gunpoint, would you agree with that?

NO :angry:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Larch on August 13, 2014, 10:32:39 AM
The Russians in the Baltics are mostly the descendants of regular Ivans who moved there after WWII as blue collar workers following the Soviet industrialization plans of the region. They were pawns in Stalin's plans to russify the region. Besides them, there's a smaller group of Russians that already lived there before the war, as there was already a Russian minority there since the times of the Russian Empire.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 11:16:43 AM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:12:35 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 10:06:29 AMThey were people moved to the Baltic States to act as Russia's influence counters.  They victims here.  I specifically said that.  So...what are you lecturing me on here?  That I should ignore realities and instead demand sunshine and lollipops for all?

you seemed to be excusing the discrimination based off an event that occurred many decades ago.

First this is the old world.  Things happen based off events that happened many centuries ago with regularity.

Second I was not excusing it so much as explaining why the EU was unlikely to be able to stop it.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 11:17:15 AM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:02:44 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:01:08 AMThey're people who should be repatriated back to Russia.

if the african countries started systematically deporting whites forcefully and at gunpoint, would you agree with that?

Think some of them have right?  Or at least it seems like something like that happened in Zimbabwe.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 13, 2014, 11:42:16 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 11:17:15 AM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 10:02:44 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 10:01:08 AMThey're people who should be repatriated back to Russia.

if the african countries started systematically deporting whites forcefully and at gunpoint, would you agree with that?

Think some of them have right?  Or at least it seems like something like that happened in Zimbabwe.

This has been the rule actually.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 13, 2014, 03:10:47 PM
Aww, poor kid makes a mistake on instagram and loses his livelihood.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/soldier-whose-instagram-selfies-appeared-to-show-him-in-ukra#39jqgut

QuoteA soldier whose Instagram photos that appeared to show that Russian troops were operating covertly in eastern Ukraine says he is facing dishonorable discharge from the army after his Instagram account went viral.

Alexander Sotkin, a communications specialist who posted two Instagram photos that were geotagged inside Ukraine in July, said on Wednesday that he was facing discharge after he became an internet celebrity following a BuzzFeed story about his account.

"It hasn't really finished yet, command says that I'm a faggot who disgraced the unit, they're going to discharge me, plus all this score-settling after all the hype, baaasically there's not much good about it," Sotkin wrote in private message via VKontakte, the Russian social network similar to Facebook.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 03:19:21 PM
Betcha he loses a lot more than his livelihood.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 13, 2014, 03:20:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 03:19:21 PM
Betcha he loses a lot more than his livelihood.

Yeah that was actually my thought when his instragram photos first went viral. I was like run dude. :(
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 03:22:09 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 11:16:43 AMFirst this is the old world.  Things happen based off events that happened many centuries ago with regularity.

Second I was not excusing it so much as explaining why the EU was unlikely to be able to stop it.

sure. there tends to be outrage, however, when the victim is of a more "sympathetic" ethnicity.

then i apologize if i miss-characterized your post

Quote from: ValmyThink some of them have right?  Or at least it seems like something like that happened in Zimbabwe.

yup, that's why i mentioned it
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 13, 2014, 04:32:27 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AM
Well they were put there to undermine the Baltic States' independence and enforce Russian power and control.  It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved.  You must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.
So? You could say exactly the same about white Zimbabweans.

You've got to deal with reality and these people are there. They're often stateless and they've very limited opportunities to change their situation short of renouncing their background. Protecting minority rights, broad education and citizenship are basic parts of the European package and, in my view, should've been insisted on.

QuoteThis point to a fundamental weakness in the EU, a ideologically motivated activist foreign policy without an organised military to provide substance/a back-bone.
Well see the Eurozone. How many countries were let in despite not meeting the basic criteria to make a political point? How many of them are now causing issues?

QuoteSecond I was not excusing it so much as explaining why the EU was unlikely to be able to stop it.
Given the number of hoops most countries jump through to join the EU and the Baltic countries need to join the West, precisely to save themselves from Russia, I think the EU could've done it. It didn't because the decision to admit them had already been taken despite the inadequate steps on protecting a minority.

It's the same with Cyprus. The decision was already taken so it didn't matter that the Greek Cypriots were the ones who rejected a UN and EU endorsed peace deal. Now they're in and they get a veto over all sorts of issues.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 05:06:21 PM
My ancestors also colonized territory captured in an aggressive war, but if the original country re-took it and some nationalist asshole told me that I couldn't vote in the land of my birth, I'd be pretty angry. And if I could vote, I'd vote to have the territory leave Mexico and re-join the United States, as well.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Brain on August 13, 2014, 05:09:39 PM
Russians can go home to Russia.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 05:44:00 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Well nothing you would feel is wrong.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 05:46:37 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 10:06:29 AM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 09:51:14 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 09:07:10 AMYou must treat people well who were put in your country with the purpose of creating an existential threat to your country?  Hmmmm yeah without a pretty enormous stick and a particularly yummy carrot they are not going to do that.  Suicide is a lot to ask from a country.

they're people, not influence counters on a game board.

They were people moved to the Baltic States to act as Russia's influence counters.  They are victims here.  I specifically said that.  So...what are you lecturing me on here?  That I should ignore realities and instead demand sunshine and lollipops for all?

Edit: By the way really glad you are posting a lot more here.  You add a lot to the discussions.

Were they forced to move or was that were jobs were?  Seems like you can justify a lot of shit by not "ignoring the realities".
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Duque de Bragança on August 13, 2014, 05:56:44 PM
Quote from: The Brain on August 13, 2014, 05:09:39 PM
Russians can go home to Russia.

Will the Varangian Rus' come back to Sweden ?!
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 06:42:19 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Language tests for citizenship.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 06:49:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 06:42:19 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Language tests for citizenship.

Which is sort of a big thing since it means that a lot of people born there aren't citizens.  Or citizens anywhere actually.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 13, 2014, 07:26:04 PM
Yep. So they can't, say, vote in most elections or generally own property (in Latvia).
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 08:30:49 PM
QuoteWere they forced to move or was that were jobs were?  Seems like you can justify a lot of shit by not "ignoring the realities".

They were colonized there to solidify Soviet control.  I was not justifying anything.  I am not sure how saying 'It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved' means I think this is awesome or it is justified.  But these are ethnically based states, people of other ethnicities are fundamentally threatening to their existence, particularly ones from hostile neighboring countries.  That is why we fought those two world wars in Europe and all those millions of people died.  If you are going to have a state called 'Estonia' then it is going to be about the protection and sovereignty of Estonians and is going to be hostile to anything that threatens that.  Duh, water is wet. 
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to the repression of minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 08:57:07 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to violence against minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.
What do you do if you don't want to be nationalistic, but your neighbor to whom a lot of your citizens belong does?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:59:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 08:57:07 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to violence against minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.
What do you do if you don't want to be nationalistic, but your neighbor to whom a lot of your citizens belong does?

Make democracy more appealing to those citizens than the alternative. Letting them experience democracy would be a good start.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 09:05:16 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:59:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 08:57:07 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to violence against minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.
What do you do if you don't want to be nationalistic, but your neighbor to whom a lot of your citizens belong does?

Make democracy more appealing to those citizens than the alternative. Letting them experience democracy would be a good start.
Democracy doesn't protect against peacekeeping tanks, planes, and artillery.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 09:12:05 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 09:05:16 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:59:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 13, 2014, 08:57:07 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to violence against minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.
What do you do if you don't want to be nationalistic, but your neighbor to whom a lot of your citizens belong does?

Make democracy more appealing to those citizens than the alternative. Letting them experience democracy would be a good start.
Democracy doesn't protect against peacekeeping tanks, planes, and artillery.

That's irrelevant, since in this case NATO does.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: LaCroix on August 13, 2014, 09:46:01 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 09:12:05 PMThat's irrelevant, since in this case NATO does.

seriously. i'm as confused by that argument as well
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 11:26:48 PM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 13, 2014, 08:56:01 PM
'Sweden' isn't about the protection and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes. If the nation state model intrinsically leads to the repression of minorities then it's something Western Europe is wise in moving away from, and they should guide their little siblings in the East in the same direction.

Easy to say that when Sweden is under no serious attack.  If the safety and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes was in danger would there be no fearful actions?  If there was a country who you thought might roll in and take over at any minute?  It is called Sweden for a reason and not 'the piece of dirt in the area of the northern and western Baltic'.

Here in the United States we have people terrified of completely harmless minorities all the time.  It makes no logical sense, but in Estonia that minority actually DOES represent a existential threat.  One that could roll in and end Estonia's existence in hours.  However it is fundamentally evil to suppress minorities who individually have nothing to do with anything.  I feel bad for the Russians who are completely fucked by this sorry situation.  However I do have a hard time judging the Latvians and company too hard, because God knows what we would do in that situation.  I am glad I will never find out, the attitudes some people have around here to the Mexican and Latin American immigrants are hysterical enough and those people are about as threatening as a stiff breeze.

Anyway I was just saying that to get Latvia and the like to act differently you would need very coercive carrots and sticks.  Their national instincts are to hate and fear the Russians.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 11:57:39 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 08:30:49 PM
QuoteWere they forced to move or was that were jobs were?  Seems like you can justify a lot of shit by not "ignoring the realities".

They were colonized there to solidify Soviet control.  I was not justifying anything.  I am not sure how saying 'It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved' means I think this is awesome or it is justified.  But these are ethnically based states, people of other ethnicities are fundamentally threatening to their existence, particularly ones from hostile neighboring countries.  That is why we fought those two world wars in Europe and all those millions of people died.  If you are going to have a state called 'Estonia' then it is going to be about the protection and sovereignty of Estonians and is going to be hostile to anything that threatens that.  Duh, water is wet.

Still I'm asking were all these people forced to live there?  I don't think either the Russian empire or the Soviet Union imagined it was going to collapse and thus wouldn't haven't of thought of themselves as "hostile neighbors" of their own state.  You are saying this is a not justification but a reality.  I don't know exactly what the difference is.  The line of thought seems similar to many radicals in Latin America.  American expats or business operating in foreign countries are part of American colonialism and are a existential threat to those countries.  I'd wager Fidel Castro thought something similar when he nationalized American companies in Cuba.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 14, 2014, 12:01:28 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 11:57:39 PM
Still I'm asking were all these people forced to live there?  I don't think either the Russian empire or the Soviet Union imagined it was going to collapse and thus wouldn't haven't of thought of themselves as "hostile neighbors" of their own state.  You are saying this is a not justification but a reality.  I don't know exactly what the difference is.  The line of thought seems similar to many radicals in Latin America.  American expats or business operating in foreign countries are part of American colonialism and are a existential threat to those countries.  I'd wager Fidel Castro thought something similar when he nationalized American companies in Cuba.

I am saying what the Baltic States are doing is wrong.  And indeed, just like you say, their line of thinking is a pretty common one throughout the world.  So it is pretty understandable why they are doing it and pretty understandable why it would take considerable effort to get them to do otherwise.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: LaCroix on August 14, 2014, 12:12:33 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 11:26:48 PMEasy to say that when Sweden is under no serious attack.  If the safety and sovereignty of ethnic Swedes was in danger would there be no fearful actions?  If there was a country who you thought might roll in and take over at any minute?  It is called Sweden for a reason and not 'the piece of dirt in the area of the northern and western Baltic'.

Here in the United States we have people terrified of completely harmless minorities all the time.  It makes no logical sense, but in Estonia that minority actually DOES represent a existential threat.  One that could roll in and end Estonia's existence in hours.  However it is fundamentally evil to suppress minorities who individually have nothing to do with anything.  I feel bad for the Russians who are completely fucked by this sorry situation.  However I do have a hard time judging the Latvians and company too hard, because God knows what we would do in that situation.  I am glad I will never find out, the attitudes some people have around here to the Mexican and Latin American immigrants are hysterical enough and those people are about as threatening as a stiff breeze.

Anyway I was just saying that to get Latvia and the like to act differently you would need very coercive carrots and sticks.  Their national instincts are to hate and fear the Russians.

are the baltic states discriminating against russians because they are fearful of russia using russian minorities as an excuse to attack, or is there discrimination because the baltic states used to be under russia's heel which has resulted in hostility against anything considered russian? if we use our zimbabwe example, attacks on whites isn't out of fear that the whites will return to power. it's retribution.

not to mention that the russian minority in estonia doesn't pose any threat to the country. if russia wanted and could invade estonia, it would regardless of how many russians lived in the area. russia didn't invaded ukraine due to the existence of russian ethnic groups; russia used russian ethnic groups as an excuse to get what it wanted from the ukraine. the anti-russian estonian laws we're talking about came before the russian-ukraine dispute, when russia wasn't invading neighboring countries under the guise of protecting its minorities.

also, you seem to be really holding onto the concept of ethnicity. people in texas probably don't like the mass immigrants just like north dakotans don't like the mass immigrants, and ours are more white than not. i'm sure there are texans who are rah rah "keep texas texan," well, there are just as many north dakotans saying "keep north dakota north dakotan"
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 14, 2014, 01:23:00 AM
This is so going to fuck up the release of Combat Mission: Black Sea. :(
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 06:48:38 AM
IIRC what the Baltics (again, mostly Latvia and Estonia, it was different in Lithuania) did upon independence was reset their law codes back to pre-Soviet times, only giving Latvian and Estonian citizenship to people who were already citizens before the Soviet ocupation and their descendants, giving the influx of people who moved there in Soviet times and their descendants a not so subtle "go back where you belong" message. It was petty revanchism against Russians, not a deeply thought geopolitical move.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 14, 2014, 07:06:46 AM
Quote from: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 06:48:38 AM
IIRC what the Baltics (again, mostly Latvia and Estonia, it was different in Lithuania) did upon independence was reset their law codes back to pre-Soviet times, only giving Latvian and Estonian citizenship to people who were already citizens before the Soviet ocupation and their descendants, giving the influx of people who moved there in Soviet times and their descendants a not so subtle "go back where you belong" message. It was petty revanchism against Russians, not a deeply thought geopolitical move.

I tend to disagree. What is happening in Ukraine clearly shows that it was a very wise geopolitical move. Or not, because if the Russians stay, their second-class status will serve as a double-bonus casus belli if needed.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 14, 2014, 07:15:26 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 14, 2014, 07:06:46 AM
Quote from: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 06:48:38 AM
IIRC what the Baltics (again, mostly Latvia and Estonia, it was different in Lithuania) did upon independence was reset their law codes back to pre-Soviet times, only giving Latvian and Estonian citizenship to people who were already citizens before the Soviet ocupation and their descendants, giving the influx of people who moved there in Soviet times and their descendants a not so subtle "go back where you belong" message. It was petty revanchism against Russians, not a deeply thought geopolitical move.

I tend to disagree. What is happening in Ukraine clearly shows that it was a very wise geopolitical move. Or not, because if the Russians stay, their second-class status will serve as a double-bonus casus belli if needed.

Yeah seems like they have just made it way easier to make claim that Russia needs to step in to save Russian people.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 14, 2014, 08:19:40 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 14, 2014, 07:06:46 AM
Or not, because if the Russians stay, their second-class status will serve as a double-bonus casus belli if needed.

Yep.

Granted with the Russian media these days they could be treating the ethnic Russians like royalty and it might not matter.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 14, 2014, 09:49:50 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 06:49:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 06:42:19 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Language tests for citizenship.

Which is sort of a big thing since it means that a lot of people born there aren't citizens.  Or citizens anywhere actually.

No.  First of all, such tests are valuable for small countries like the Baltic states in reclaiming/preserving their national identities.  Secondly, those Russians are all eligible for Russian citizenship.  It would help Russia's demographic problem a bit if these folks were repatriated back to Mother Russia.  Win-win.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 14, 2014, 09:54:52 AM
Fighting reported in Kiev. :o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuaDPDxGYYM
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 14, 2014, 09:57:58 AM
If I was a Russian minority person in any of these places, I'd be rather nervous. What happens when (or if) Putin screws up and Russia loses its beligerent edge? The notion that having a Russian minority in your country is positively dangerous (should another like him arise in the future) will remain.

All the incentive necessary to harrass, expel, or forcibly assimilate by nasty and/or frightened ethno-nationalists. 
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 10:40:36 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 14, 2014, 09:49:50 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 06:49:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 06:42:19 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Language tests for citizenship.

Which is sort of a big thing since it means that a lot of people born there aren't citizens.  Or citizens anywhere actually.

No.  First of all, such tests are valuable for small countries like the Baltic states in reclaiming/preserving their national identities.  Secondly, those Russians are all eligible for Russian citizenship.  It would help Russia's demographic problem a bit if these folks were repatriated back to Mother Russia.  Win-win.

Where would you prefer to live, in Estonia or Latvia, even as a minority there, or in Russia? Russians there don't want to return to Russia for very good reasons.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 14, 2014, 02:51:25 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 10:40:36 AM
Where would you prefer to live, in Estonia or Latvia, even as a minority there, or in Russia? Russians there don't want to return to Russia for very good reasons.

I wouldn't want to, either.  But I'm not Russian.  If their language, culture, etc. is so important to them then they should move to Russia.  Otherwise, make the effort to learn the majority language in that country to get citizenship there.  Unless I missed something, there doesn't seem to be much of a burden placed on ethnic Russians in the Baltic states.

Or is this all about that statue?  Are Euros still pissing their pants because the Estonians dared move a Soviet statue that was a reminder of occupation & oppression?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Brain on August 14, 2014, 02:53:37 PM
Live by oppression, die by oppression. Russians as a collective are scum. Tear-falling pity dwells not in this eye.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 14, 2014, 03:04:45 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2014, 08:30:49 PM
They were colonized there to solidify Soviet control.  I was not justifying anything.  I am not sure how saying 'It is hard to imagine that going well for anybody involved' means I think this is awesome or it is justified.
They were colonised but the overwhelming majority of Russians in the Baltics moved their after Stalin because they were the richest bits of the USSR. It was a very desirable place to live and work.

QuoteBut these are ethnically based states, people of other ethnicities are fundamentally threatening to their existence, particularly ones from hostile neighboring countries.  That is why we fought those two world wars in Europe and all those millions of people died.  If you are going to have a state called 'Estonia' then it is going to be about the protection and sovereignty of Estonians and is going to be hostile to anything that threatens that.  Duh, water is wet.
Fine. But my issue isn't necessarily that what they're doing is wrong (though it is) but that what they're doing doesn't meet the basic standards of the EU and we shouldn't have bent the rules to let them in for political purposes. If they were out of the EU I've no doubt they'd already have changed all the problematic laws.

Incidentally Lithuania's got a very well integrated Russian-speaking minority and most ethnic Lithuanians also speak Russian (and English). Admittedly it's far smaller than in Estonia or Latvia. But what's striking is that these laws were passed in the early 90s and generally Yeltsin's government negotiated with the Lithuanians over liberalising them (they were initially like the other Baltic states). It's more justifiable now because of Putin. But has it really been that justifiable for the past 25 years? Even when Russia was weak, retreating and being patronised by the West?

Also it'd be incredibly problematic if a European country, say, Germany or England declared that they're about the 'protection and sovereignty of Germans/Englishmen'. In part that's because of the EU and European laws on human rights. It shouldn't not apply just because you're East of the Oder.

QuoteI wouldn't want to, either.  But I'm not Russian.  If their language, culture, etc. is so important to them then they should move to Russia.  Otherwise, make the effort to learn the majority language in that country to get citizenship there.  Unless I missed something, there doesn't seem to be much of a burden placed on ethnic Russians in the Baltic states.
People born in Latvia who could go back three generations don't get Latvian citizenship and don't have the citizenship of any other country. Consequently they can't own property, vote in certain elections or do anything that requires you to fill in that 'nationality' box on a form. They can remedy this, as you say, by passing tests in Latvian and proving they're earning etc. But I don't see why someone should have to do that in the country of their birth and potentially their parents' and grandparents' births too.

It's better than it was, but it's still bad.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 14, 2014, 09:58:03 PM
They can claim Russian citizenship. And learn Latvian or gtfo.  Latvians deserve their on country after all they've been through.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tonitrus on August 14, 2014, 11:07:35 PM
Or maybe Russian speakers in Latvia can be treated equally/democratically, and then they might support the free Latvian government over Putin's czaropoly?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 14, 2014, 11:31:50 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 14, 2014, 11:07:35 PM
Or maybe Russian speakers in Latvia can be treated equally/democratically, and then they might support the free Latvian government over Putin's czaropoly?
No one would ask them for their opinion.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:17:49 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 14, 2014, 09:58:03 PM
They can claim Russian citizenship. And learn Latvian or gtfo.  Latvians deserve their on country after all they've been through.

Oh Yay, ethnic cleansing.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:21:54 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Do you think such "existential concerns" trump human rights?  Turning a quarter of your populace into alien residents seems like a major human rights thingy.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:21:54 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Do you think such "existential concerns" trump human rights?

As in all questions of this sort, it depends on the concerns and what specific rights are being restricted and whether the threat justifies the restrictions.

My point is simply that garbon is a fool to try to judge Latvia situation by US standards - the US does not have to deal with anything like the threat they do now, and have in the past.

And let's be honest, our own record on dealing with perceived foreigners when we are under a threat doesn't leave us much room to be preaching to others. We rounded up people and shoved them into concentration camps when we had much less of a threat to us than Latvia is facing.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 02:04:53 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 13, 2014, 06:49:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2014, 06:42:19 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 13, 2014, 04:48:44 PM
So what did the Baltic states do that was so wrong?

Language tests for citizenship.

Which is sort of a big thing since it means that a lot of people born there aren't citizens.  Or citizens anywhere actually.

Before January this year I would have agreed with you - now I think the Baltics should have simply deported all ethnic Russians from their borders in the 1990s when Russia was still weak.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 02:10:11 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 07:15:26 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 14, 2014, 07:06:46 AM
Quote from: The Larch on August 14, 2014, 06:48:38 AM
IIRC what the Baltics (again, mostly Latvia and Estonia, it was different in Lithuania) did upon independence was reset their law codes back to pre-Soviet times, only giving Latvian and Estonian citizenship to people who were already citizens before the Soviet ocupation and their descendants, giving the influx of people who moved there in Soviet times and their descendants a not so subtle "go back where you belong" message. It was petty revanchism against Russians, not a deeply thought geopolitical move.
I tend to disagree. What is happening in Ukraine clearly shows that it was a very wise geopolitical move. Or not, because if the Russians stay, their second-class status will serve as a double-bonus casus belli if needed.

Yeah seems like they have just made it way easier to make claim that Russia needs to step in to save Russian people.

Only that in Ukraine and earlier in Georgia, Russia has clearly showed that it is perfectly capable of inventing a reason to invade out of thin air, with no concern for legitimacy or the opinions of the international community - and its own populace is happy lapping up whatever propaganda comes its way.

So the argument (which is still sometimes touted in leftist/liberal media, despite being thoroughly discredited) is really a red herring.

Edit: Especially as we are talking about Baltics states, i.e. NATO members. So if Russia decides to invade those, the fact that ethnic Russians in those states were persecuted and to what degree, will have absolutely zero influence on the geopolitical consequences (or lack thereof).
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 03:27:22 AM
In his regular Friday morning radio interview, Hungarian PM Orban declared that the EU is "shooting itself in the foot" with the sanctions against Russia, and he will be looking for partners for calling a EU-Russia conference to agree on ways to cooperate.

I remind you that he signed the biggest loan deal ever in Hungarian history with Putin to build a new nuclear power plant. It is probably also the fishiest deal in Hungarian history, because it came out of the blue, with a secrecy and hurry and total lack of public analysis of the investment which surprised and puzzled experts and the public to this day. There are several theories for the reason, ranging from sheer incompetence through Orban being blackmailed by the Russian secret service (his mobile phone HAS been stolen from her daughter's wedding a few months before the deal was signed  :ph34r: ), to calculations that the country is in a dire financial situation, and having made enemies of the IMF and everyone who could offer meaningful help, the true purpose of the mega-loan is to be spent on daily expenses, seeing Orban off until the next election in 4 years.

So, with his wishy-washing on the Ukraine issue and now de facto open declaration of solidarity with Russia makes him a traitor in my eyes, and I hope this is obvious to EU and NATO leaders as well, and they will keep their plans secret from Hungarian officials, because Hungary has become Russia's Trojan horse in the EU. :(
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 15, 2014, 04:15:20 AM
Why doesn't he just leave the EU and rejoin the Warsaw Pact?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 15, 2014, 04:29:46 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM
As in all questions of this sort, it depends on the concerns and what specific rights are being restricted and whether the threat justifies the restrictions.

My point is simply that garbon is a fool to try to judge Latvia situation by US standards - the US does not have to deal with anything like the threat they do now, and have in the past.

I've no sympathy if the only way a country can exist is by enforcing language laws and denying citizenship to individuals born there who don't speak the language.

While it might be understandable, it is still incredibly backwards and I don't really see why the actual West should support that.

Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM
And let's be honest, our own record on dealing with perceived foreigners when we are under a threat doesn't leave us much room to be preaching to others. We rounded up people and shoved them into concentration camps when we had much less of a threat to us than Latvia is facing.

Ah yes, because terrible things that people did before I was born should prevent me from being disgusted by oppression.


Note I would change my position if, as I don't pay much attention to that region, it has been the case that Latvia has been plagued since independence with ethnic Russians trying to violently force it back into Russia. -_-
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 15, 2014, 04:31:05 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 15, 2014, 04:15:20 AM
Why doesn't he just leave the EU and rejoin the Warsaw Pact?

Yeah, that worked a charm last time.

Can't believe that an Hungarian of all things could be in bed with Russia while Moscow is pulling a 1956 with their neighbor.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 05:06:24 AM
Quote from: celedhring on August 15, 2014, 04:31:05 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 15, 2014, 04:15:20 AM
Why doesn't he just leave the EU and rejoin the Warsaw Pact?

Yeah, that worked a charm last time.

Can't believe that an Hungarian of all things could be in bed with Russia while Moscow is pulling a 1956 with their neighbor.

Yeah, it is crazy. Post-medieval times, Russia has been by far the worst influence on Hungary. They ruthlessly crushed both of our attempts at independence and modernity (1848 and 1956), they kept in power a system which eventually broke the back of the nation and made them a bunch of docile sheep (post '56).

Of course, when you are a would-be Putin yourself, those things don't matter much I guess.

And if Orban stays, leaving the EU is only a matter of time. EU has been too useful for him as everything that has been built in the country the last 6 years have been built from EU grants. But nowadays there is no more EU grant money, since the EU didn't appreciate the reorganisation of the office dealing with the money (basically everything was concentrated in the hand of Orban's right hand man, and chaos ensued).

So give him some time. I will be one day applying for a visa to visit my parents.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 06:49:10 AM
Tamas, I gotta tell you nothing gives me as much joy as watching Polish right wingers tying themselves in knots over their erstwhile support of Orban. Sure go ahead and denounce Western amoral liberalism - but know that this makes you a pal of the likes of China, Russia and Turkey.

By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland. Hopefully this will make even his idiot supporters stop voting for him.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:13:14 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 06:49:10 AM
Tamas, I gotta tell you nothing gives me as much joy as watching Polish right wingers tying themselves in knots over their erstwhile support of Orban. Sure go ahead and denounce Western amoral liberalism - but know that this makes you a pal of the likes of China, Russia and Turkey.

By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland. Hopefully this will make even his idiot supporters stop voting for him.

He is not my "idol" since as you point out, often trolling the general consensus seems more important for him than just being a politician for his side. But I do like him for being a proponent of classical liberalism, in economies if nothing else. Need more of that in Eastern Europe.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 08:27:58 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:13:14 AM
Quote
By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland.
But I do like him for being a proponent of classical liberalism, in economies if nothing else.
:hmm:  :shutup:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:31:18 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 08:27:58 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:13:14 AM
Quote
By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland.
But I do like him for being a proponent of classical liberalism, in economies if nothing else.
:hmm:  :shutup:

WHAT
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 08:43:21 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:13:14 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 06:49:10 AM
Tamas, I gotta tell you nothing gives me as much joy as watching Polish right wingers tying themselves in knots over their erstwhile support of Orban. Sure go ahead and denounce Western amoral liberalism - but know that this makes you a pal of the likes of China, Russia and Turkey.

By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland. Hopefully this will make even his idiot supporters stop voting for him.

He is not my "idol" since as you point out, often trolling the general consensus seems more important for him than just being a politician for his side. But I do like him for being a proponent of classical liberalism, in economies if nothing else. Need more of that in Eastern Europe.

He does not stand out as a "proponent of classical liberalism", since the region's economy (at least in Poland) is already highly deregulated and laissez-faire. What he is a proponent of is a complete dismantling of any safety nets or things like socialised education or healthcare (I believe he believes that even primary education should be privatised and should be paid out of pockets of the parents). In a country like Poland, where the public sector is already very weak, things like this do not make him an economic genius, but a sociopath with serious empathy issues.

The fact that he used the word "nigger" in his first European Parliament's speech he gave, and believes that women in marriage cannot be raped and that disabled children should not be showed on tv not to create bad role models for "normal children" (or that fact that both Wilders and LePen did not form a group with him in the European Parliament, saying he is too "extreme" and "controversial") really shows that this guy is human garbage.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Jacob on August 15, 2014, 08:49:19 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 08:43:21 AM
He does not stand out as a "proponent of classical liberalism", since the region's economy (at least in Poland) is already highly deregulated and laissez-faire. What he is a proponent of is a complete dismantling of any safety nets or things like socialised education or healthcare (I believe he believes that even primary education should be privatised and should be paid out of pockets of the parents). In a country like Poland, where the public sector is already very weak, things like this do not make him an economic genius, but a sociopath with serious empathy issues.

Makes sense that Tamas likes him, then.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 08:49:39 AM
Ah, there's our old Marty.  Welcome back, sir.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:51:12 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 08:43:21 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:13:14 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 06:49:10 AM
Tamas, I gotta tell you nothing gives me as much joy as watching Polish right wingers tying themselves in knots over their erstwhile support of Orban. Sure go ahead and denounce Western amoral liberalism - but know that this makes you a pal of the likes of China, Russia and Turkey.

By the way, your idol, JKM is the only staunchly pro-Putin politician in Poland. Hopefully this will make even his idiot supporters stop voting for him.

He is not my "idol" since as you point out, often trolling the general consensus seems more important for him than just being a politician for his side. But I do like him for being a proponent of classical liberalism, in economies if nothing else. Need more of that in Eastern Europe.

He does not stand out as a "proponent of classical liberalism", since the region's economy (at least in Poland) is already highly deregulated and laissez-faire. What he is a proponent of is a complete dismantling of any safety nets or things like socialised education or healthcare (I believe he believes that even primary education should be privatised and should be paid out of pockets of the parents). In a country like Poland, where the public sector is already very weak, things like this do not make him an economic genius, but a sociopath with serious empathy issues.

The fact that he used the word "nigger" in his first European Parliament's speech he gave, and believes that women in marriage cannot be raped and that disabled children should not be showed on tv not to create bad role models for "normal children" (or that fact that both Wilders and LePen did not form a group with him in the European Parliament, saying he is too "extreme" and "controversial") really shows that this guy is human garbage.

I can't fathom why on earth some Hungarian IT guy would suddenly became his supporter. Do you know some idiot Pole there in London who is a fan of his or something?

:yeahright:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 08:54:21 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:51:12 AM
:yeahright:
Do you dispute anything I said in the first two paragraphs (deleted the third as it was an ad hom).
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 15, 2014, 08:56:52 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 08:49:39 AM
Ah, there's our old Marty.  Welcome back, sir.

Yeah, I guess the grace period is over.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 15, 2014, 09:10:16 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 15, 2014, 04:15:20 AM
Why doesn't he just leave the EU and rejoin the Warsaw Pact?

Warsaw might resist that arrangement.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 09:49:40 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:21:54 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Do you think such "existential concerns" trump human rights?

As in all questions of this sort, it depends on the concerns and what specific rights are being restricted and whether the threat justifies the restrictions.

My point is simply that garbon is a fool to try to judge Latvia situation by US standards - the US does not have to deal with anything like the threat they do now, and have in the past.

And let's be honest, our own record on dealing with perceived foreigners when we are under a threat doesn't leave us much room to be preaching to others. We rounded up people and shoved them into concentration camps when we had much less of a threat to us than Latvia is facing.

Thing is these aren't immigrants.  These are people who were born there.  And simply because the US has violated the civil rights of it's citizens in the past doesn't mean can criticize  these actions as they happen now.  Besides this "existential threat" hasn't actually materialized.  There is no big crisis on whether or not Latvia should be allowed to exist.  This is nothing less then petty tribalism, nationalism and "getting even".
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 09:51:53 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 08:54:21 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 08:51:12 AM
:yeahright:
Do you dispute anything I said in the first two paragraphs (deleted the third as it was an ad hom).

I am having troubles imagining Poland being laisez faire haven, although I am blindly conceding that it is better in that regard than Hungary.

And I would never want JKM himself to rule a country, but he does say a lot of things I agree with. And some stupid idiotic things to which are then convenient points to focus on for those who want to dismiss libertarian ideas as idiotic.

And I would much rather talk about a Hungarian libertarian politician but there isn't any.

Anyways, lets get back on topic.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 09:53:48 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 09:49:40 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:21:54 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Do you think such "existential concerns" trump human rights?

As in all questions of this sort, it depends on the concerns and what specific rights are being restricted and whether the threat justifies the restrictions.

My point is simply that garbon is a fool to try to judge Latvia situation by US standards - the US does not have to deal with anything like the threat they do now, and have in the past.

And let's be honest, our own record on dealing with perceived foreigners when we are under a threat doesn't leave us much room to be preaching to others. We rounded up people and shoved them into concentration camps when we had much less of a threat to us than Latvia is facing.

Thing is these aren't immigrants.  These are people who were born there.  And simply because the US has violated the civil rights of it's citizens in the past doesn't mean can criticize  these actions as they happen now.  Besides this "existential threat" hasn't actually materialized.  There is no big crisis on whether or not Latvia should be allowed to exist.  This is nothing less then petty tribalism, nationalism and "getting even".

Those people, although I agree they probably haven't made that choice personally, are from the nation who forcefully occupied the Baltic States. In fact the only reason they could move there was that they were under the umbrella of their own occupying army and were considered the "same country". They are remnants of an occupation force.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 09:59:28 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

That is not how it works in the old world dude.  The Jews of Warsaw were there for like 400 years and that did not make the Poles.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:02:07 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

You know nothing Jon Snow. There were roughly 3 million Hungarians left on the other side of the border following the Versailles peace treaty. 96 years later there are still 1.5 millions of them, those who dared openly declaring themselves as such.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 15, 2014, 10:04:31 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 09:59:28 AM
That is not how it works in the old world dude.

They joined NATO and the EU, time to join the modern world.  :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:05:36 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 09:49:40 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:36:43 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 01:21:54 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 01:05:11 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 14, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
Next stop American citizenship only for those who speak American. :punk:

Latvia is not the US.

It is foolish to try to pretend like their existential concerns have any parallel to the US.

Do you think such "existential concerns" trump human rights?

As in all questions of this sort, it depends on the concerns and what specific rights are being restricted and whether the threat justifies the restrictions.

My point is simply that garbon is a fool to try to judge Latvia situation by US standards - the US does not have to deal with anything like the threat they do now, and have in the past.

And let's be honest, our own record on dealing with perceived foreigners when we are under a threat doesn't leave us much room to be preaching to others. We rounded up people and shoved them into concentration camps when we had much less of a threat to us than Latvia is facing.

Thing is these aren't immigrants.  These are people who were born there.  And simply because the US has violated the civil rights of it's citizens in the past doesn't mean can criticize  these actions as they happen now.

It does mean that we should understand the power and fear involved, and that it isn't as simple as we might think it is, or wish it to be.

Quote
  Besides this "existential threat" hasn't actually materialized.

Are you kidding me? Russia invaded and occupied Latvia for decades. That threat most certainly DID materialize.

Quote
There is no big crisis on whether or not Latvia should be allowed to exist.  This is nothing less then petty tribalism, nationalism and "getting even".

It is that, and more than that. Pretending it isn't won't help.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:14:05 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

Soviet Union broke up 70 years ago?  Damn, I'm old.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 15, 2014, 10:17:19 AM
Do you consider Tommy and Lola to be West Virginians?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:23:09 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

:lol:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Queequeg on August 15, 2014, 10:26:06 AM
Guys my twitter is blowing up, looks like Russian units already in Luhansk.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 15, 2014, 10:27:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:23:09 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

:lol:

For such a keen libertarian, you're certainly favoring nationalism over individual rights here.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:31:38 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.
There is no good way to reconcile modern moral standards and ethnically-based countries.  It's hard for Americans to really appreciate that, since our country is a melting pot.  Most countries are not melting pots, or just arbitrary entities on a geopolitical map, formed by an accident of history.  Most countries are a union of people sharing ethnicity and culture.  When the common element that defines the country is compromised, you have an existential threat.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:33:15 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

The thing is they do not consider themselves Latvians.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:33:58 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:31:38 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.
There is no good way to reconcile modern moral standards and ethnically-based countries.

Indeed / why I don't have to support their policies even if one can accept why they have come about.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:34:29 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:33:15 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

The thing is they do not consider themselves Latvians.

Yeah if I didn't have citizenship where I was living, probably wouldn't consider myself a citizen either. :(
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:38:02 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:33:58 AM
Indeed / why I don't have to support their policies even if one can accept why they have come about.

Yep.  This is why I am not a big fan of ethnically based states.  Multinational states are far better.  Except France of course.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:39:56 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:38:02 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:33:58 AM
Indeed / why I don't have to support their policies even if one can accept why they have come about.

Yep.  This is why I am not a big fan of ethnically based states.  Multinational states are far better.  Except France of course.

Only that most states in the world are like that. It's like saying you are not a fan of money based economy. :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:40:26 AM
Quote from: Queequeg on August 15, 2014, 10:26:06 AM
Guys my twitter is blowing up, looks like Russian units already in Luhansk.

keep us posted
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:40:42 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:38:02 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:33:58 AM
Indeed / why I don't have to support their policies even if one can accept why they have come about.

Yep.  This is why I am not a big fan of ethnically based states.  Multinational states are far better.  Except France of course.
How many stable multinational states do we actually have?  And if we exclude former colonial nations that are still establishing their culture, how many does that leave us with?  Switzerland?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 15, 2014, 10:42:01 AM
Us?

Okay, not that stable  :blush:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Solmyr on August 15, 2014, 10:43:02 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101906428#_gus

Ukrainians engaged Russian column.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:43:43 AM
Yeah guys, seem to be a shooting match between openly Russian APCs and Ukrainian forces going on confirmed by both sides, but sure, lets argue over your level of ignorance regarding East Euro politics :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:44:50 AM
From http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-179-russian-build-up-continues-at-border-as-armour-enters-ukraine/

QuoteRussia Will Do 'Everything Within Our Power' To Fix Ukraine
14:40 (GMT)

Vladimir Putin may have just spelled out his motivation in a conversation with the Finnish President today. RFE/RL reports:

Russian President Vladimir Putin says he has agreed with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto they will "do everything within our power" to end the conflict in Ukraine.

The crisis in Ukraine where government troops are fighting pro-Russian separatists was high on the agenda of talks Putin and Niinisto held on August 15 in Sochi.

Niinisto, speaking through a translator, said he hoped a Russian aid delivery to eastern Ukraine would pave the way for a cease-fire.

Putin also said EU sanctions against Moscow put under threat an entire range of ties between Russia and Finland.

QuoteReuters reports:

A Ukrainian military spokesman said Friday that Ukraine forces have engaged a Russian armored column on Ukrainian soil and "part of it no longer exists."
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:45:50 AM
The funny thing is that you (Yanks) guys often accuse us Euros of being "enlightened balls of light" and whatnot, but yet you seem completely  unwilling to acknowledge reality of ethnic nation states in Europe.

Consider this to be our racial relations and gun control issues. It may not make sense but it is not going away any time soon. :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 15, 2014, 10:48:05 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:40:42 AM
How many stable multinational states do we actually have?  And if we exclude former colonial nations that are still establishing their culture, how many does that leave us with?  Switzerland?

Pretty much every country in Europe and the Americas have significant minority populations.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:48:17 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:40:42 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:38:02 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:33:58 AM
Indeed / why I don't have to support their policies even if one can accept why they have come about.

Yep.  This is why I am not a big fan of ethnically based states.  Multinational states are far better.  Except France of course.
How many stable multinational states do we actually have?  And if we exclude former colonial nations that are still establishing their culture, how many does that leave us with?  Switzerland?

And Switzerland is special as it is quite small and very decentralised. Plus it is xenophobic and racist as hell to anyone who does not have the citizenship.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:48:58 AM
Well, looks like now is the watershed moment.  Was this a feint to see if Ukraine will ever have the balls to fire on Russians, or is the shit going down down now?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:51:26 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 10:48:05 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:40:42 AM
How many stable multinational states do we actually have?  And if we exclude former colonial nations that are still establishing their culture, how many does that leave us with?  Switzerland?

Pretty much every country in Europe and the Americas have significant minority populations.

I wouldn't say that a country with a "significant minority" qualifies automatically as a multinational state. Plus I think you are overestimating minority populations in Europe. I would say most European countries are 80%+ inhabited by the dominant ethnic group, with the most sizeable groups being citizenship-less immigrants from outside of Europe (and we know how well this is working out).
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:51:43 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:48:17 AM
And Switzerland is special as it is quite small and very decentralised. Plus it is xenophobic and racist as hell to anyone who does not have the citizenship.

Translation: they just don't like Poles.




:P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:53:00 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:51:43 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:48:17 AM
And Switzerland is special as it is quite small and very decentralised. Plus it is xenophobic and racist as hell to anyone who does not have the citizenship.

Translation: they just don't like Poles.




:P

Actually, I am not sure as it is not a likely destination for Poles. :P

But they have these vehemently anti-immigration parties winning elections and whatnot.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:53:10 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:51:43 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:48:17 AM
And Switzerland is special as it is quite small and very decentralised. Plus it is xenophobic and racist as hell to anyone who does not have the citizenship.

Translation: they just don't like Poles.




:P
They don't need to like them, their toilets can flush for hundreds of years and not clog up once.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:53:53 AM
Am I the only one who keeps derspiess and DGuller confused?  :blush:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:54:42 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:53:53 AM
Am I the only one who keeps derspiess and DGuller confused?  :blush:
Man, you've really been banned for a long time.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:55:36 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:48:58 AM
Well, looks like now is the watershed moment.  Was this a feint to see if Ukraine will ever have the balls to fire on Russians, or is the shit going down down now?

I would say shit is going down.  I can't imagine Putin would send a column in to get shot up and then do nothing further.

Then again, I didn't think he'd invade at all.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:55:42 AM
Hopefully Ukraine does a better job defending itself than the Kurds and Iraqis did.  How motivated will the Russians really be?  They just need to make it hard for the Russians.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:56:11 AM
Recently I spent several minutes - and then had to go through the members list - to remember fahdiz's nick. I am friends with him on Facebook so I know his real name but couldn't remember that here he was "fahdiz"/  :blush:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 15, 2014, 10:56:26 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:53:53 AM
Am I the only one who keeps derspiess and DGuller confused?  :blush:

Yes. The rest of us get Alfred Russell and DGuller confused.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:56:58 AM
He took the vowels out to be like...um...a bronze age language I guess.  fhdz.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:15 AM
I wonder how Obama will react.

Whatever he does, I hope he does it *quickly*.

Surely they have a contingency plan in place for this, right? I mean, it's not like the possibility that this would occur is some great surprise.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:57:20 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:53:00 AM
But they have these vehemently anti-immigration parties winning elections and whatnot.

That doesn't mean they hate all foreigners. 
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:40 AM
For that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:57:44 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 10:55:42 AM
Hopefully Ukraine does a better job defending itself than the Kurds and Iraqis did.  How motivated will the Russians really be?  They just need to make it hard for the Russians.

I just can't imagine Russia holding to East Ukraine for long - if he tries to, knowing Ukrainians, he will have a guerilla war on his hands soon enough. I guess his goal is simply to keep Ukraine destabilised so it never gets into shape it needs to join the EU and NATO.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 10:57:54 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:15 AM
I wonder how Obama will react.

Whatever he does, I hope he does it *quickly*.

Surely they have a contingency plan in place for this, right? I mean, it's not like the possibility that this would occur is some great surprise.

PREVED MEDVED
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:58:35 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:15 AM
I wonder how Obama will react.

Whatever he does, I hope he does it *quickly*.

Surely they have a contingency plan in place for this, right? I mean, it's not like the possibility that this would occur is some great surprise.

Let's hope he is not flushing the bombers just yet.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:59:38 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:40 AM
For that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?

There is no "Europe". There is the UK, France and Germany that make sweet deals with Putin and his oligarchs; Spain and Italy who couldn't care less; and Poland and the Baltics who are alternatively shitting their pants and rattling their sabers. (Un)surprisingly, the Scandies seem to be the most reasonable and principled in all of this, calling a spade a spade but telling Poles and the Balts to cool it for a while.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 15, 2014, 11:00:38 AM
Well as long as their not shitting their sabers & rattling their pants, they should be okay.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 11:03:31 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:59:38 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:40 AM
For that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?

There is no "Europe". There is the UK, France and Germany that make sweet deals with Putin and his oligarchs; Spain and Italy who couldn't care less; and Poland and the Baltics who are alternatively shitting their pants and rattling their sabers. (Un)surprisingly, the Scandies seem to be the most reasonable and principled in all of this, calling a spade a spade but telling Poles and the Balts to cool it for a while.

You need to get up to speed with the forum again dude, because I am actually agreeing with you in this thread, and that shouldn't happen. :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:04:57 AM
Man, I wish I was unbanned back in winter when the shit was hitting the fan for the first time. I used to be much more fired up and interested in the Russo-Ukrainian thing. By now, most Poles are really bored / tired of this and it's "business as usual", I'm afraid.

But I have friends who live in Belarus and Ukraine, and our firm has an office in Kiev, with very close ties to ours (in fact some of the people intermarried) so let me know if you want to know more about the situation "on the ground". :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: PJL on August 15, 2014, 11:09:17 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 10:59:38 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:57:40 AM
For that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?

There is no "Europe". There is the UK, France and Germany that make sweet deals with Putin and his oligarchs; Spain and Italy who couldn't care less; and Poland and the Baltics who are alternatively shitting their pants and rattling their sabers. (Un)surprisingly, the Scandies seem to be the most reasonable and principled in all of this, calling a spade a spade but telling Poles and the Balts to cool it for a while.

I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:14:00 AM
Quote from: PJL on August 15, 2014, 11:09:17 AM
I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Standard Foreign Office procedure? You mean, William Hague making some angry noises in public, while leaking a "secret" memo advocating total inaction, to make sure the oligarchs in Notting Hill do not get anxious or anything? :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 11:16:17 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:14:00 AM
Quote from: PJL on August 15, 2014, 11:09:17 AM
I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Standard Foreign Office procedure? You mean, William Hague making some angry noises in public, while leaking a "secret" memo advocating total inaction, to make sure the oligarchs in Notting Hill do not get anxious or anything? :P

yes
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 11:18:43 AM
Quote
I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Stage one: We say nothing is going to happen
Stage two: We say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it
Stage three: We say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.
Stage four: We say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:23:42 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 11:18:43 AM
Quote
I'm sure we'll use the standard Foreign Office procedure for this like we did last time. Though I was surprised by how quickly they reacted in the Kurdish / IS situation.

Stage one: We say nothing is going to happen
Stage two: We say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it
Stage three: We say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.
Stage four: We say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now

Perfect quote. :D
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:27:13 AM
What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Some options I could think of off the top of my head:

1. More and tougher sanctions, of course. One thing about sanctions - they idea is to hurt the people you are sanctioning. But it is going to hurt you as well, by definition. Like all actions in conflict, the idea is to hurt the other guy more than yourself, and THEIR idea is to convince you that you will hurt yourself more than them. *If you enter into the sanctions discussion with the idea that anything that will hurt you at all is not acceptable, don't bother even talking about it!*.
2. Provide direct aid to the Ukraine. Funds, non-military equipment, military equipment, supplies, intelligence assets.
3. Apply more overt pressure or even threats. Start talking about the possibility of sending in direct support, perhaps air support or advisers.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:29:06 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:27:13 AM
What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Oh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland. :P

Edit: Incidentally, you are right. But it will not happen any time soon. There was a brief chance when Western Europeans got pissed off after the plane got shot down, but now it is back to normal.

The only thing that could work would be the US imposing Iran-style sanctions on Russia, forcing any company willing to do business in the US to withdraw from/cut ties to Russia - that would become de facto global sanctions because not many businesses can afford to be cut off from the US financial markets.

But that is not going to happen either, because Halliburton.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:31:57 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:29:06 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:27:13 AM
What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Oh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland. :P

Wow, that is right up there with Islamotards blaming the US for all their problems.

Now the EU being a failure as a political entity is the United State's fault. Right. The US has "made sure it stays divided". Uh-huh.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 11:32:52 AM
Well we do support the UK and Poland. 
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:37:04 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:31:57 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 11:29:06 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:27:13 AM
What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Oh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland. :P

Wow, that is right up there with Islamotards blaming the US for all their problems.

Now the EU being a failure as a political entity is the United State's fault. Right. The US has "made sure it stays divided". Uh-huh.

I am not blaming you. I just think it is unfair for you to be blaming us for something that you encouraged for decades - different things.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Jacob on August 15, 2014, 11:48:01 AM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 11:27:13 AM
What could the EU do, if in fact the EU were the political entity we've been told for decades was the reason for it's existence?

Who told you that about the EU? Because while there are some people within the EU who'd like it to be that, there are plenty of others who do not.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 15, 2014, 11:52:58 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 15, 2014, 11:48:01 AM

Who told you that about the EU? Because while there are some people within the EU who'd like it to be that, there are plenty of others who do not.

Berkut has intense passion, but so often for positions that turn out to be so wrong. See Iraq, Egypt, Libya, the Arab Spring in general, the EU, and above all else Pac 12 football.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 12:30:08 PM
Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

Hell, I was not even aware I had a position on the "Arab Stpring in general". Much less "the EU".
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Jacob on August 15, 2014, 01:01:55 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 12:30:08 PM
Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

Hell, I was not even aware I had a position on the "Arab Stpring in general". Much less "the EU".

You do realize he's trolling you, right?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Jacob on August 15, 2014, 01:02:29 PM
Russian aid convoy trucks "nearly empty": http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28799627

...almost as if the convoy was a pretext for something else.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 15, 2014, 01:04:45 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:31:38 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.
There is no good way to reconcile modern moral standards and ethnically-based countries.  It's hard for Americans to really appreciate that, since our country is a melting pot.  Most countries are not melting pots, or just arbitrary entities on a geopolitical map, formed by an accident of history.  Most countries are a union of people sharing ethnicity and culture.  When the common element that defines the country is compromised, you have an existential threat.

give it a few centuries and americans will understand it too.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 15, 2014, 01:05:47 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 15, 2014, 01:04:45 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:31:38 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.
There is no good way to reconcile modern moral standards and ethnically-based countries.  It's hard for Americans to really appreciate that, since our country is a melting pot.  Most countries are not melting pots, or just arbitrary entities on a geopolitical map, formed by an accident of history.  Most countries are a union of people sharing ethnicity and culture.  When the common element that defines the country is compromised, you have an existential threat.

give it a few centuries and americans will understand it too.

I don't know why you cheer on barbaric attitudes.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 01:06:19 PM
Hey I was explaining to Shielbh why it was the way it was.  I get it.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 15, 2014, 01:07:22 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 01:06:19 PM
Hey I was explaining to Shielbh why it was the way it was.  I get it.

If you truly got it, you'd support it. :D
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 15, 2014, 01:21:14 PM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 01:05:47 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 15, 2014, 01:04:45 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 10:31:38 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 15, 2014, 10:25:13 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 10:19:12 AM
I'm shocked, shocked, that Americans think it's A-OK for a big bully nation to invade other countries, fuck them up and then cry foul when the victims fight back.

I'm shocked to see Europe resorting to ethno-tribal politics.
There is no good way to reconcile modern moral standards and ethnically-based countries.  It's hard for Americans to really appreciate that, since our country is a melting pot.  Most countries are not melting pots, or just arbitrary entities on a geopolitical map, formed by an accident of history.  Most countries are a union of people sharing ethnicity and culture.  When the common element that defines the country is compromised, you have an existential threat.

give it a few centuries and americans will understand it too.

I don't know why you cheer on barbaric attitudes.
and I don't know what you continue denying the obvious.
There is one thing, and one thing only, that'll unite mankind: and that's an existential threat to the species. And even it's only a 50/50 chance.
And there's nothing barbaric about it either. just scale. all people identify with certain groups and not others.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 01:55:49 PM
Speaking of the Russian embargo on EU food - the Kaliningrad district is apparently pretty fucked - they border only EU countries and do not really grow their own food.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 02:00:26 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 01:55:49 PM
Speaking of the Russian embargo on EU food - the Kaliningrad district is apparently pretty fucked - they border only EU countries and do not really grow their own food.
I thought Russia was going to make an exception for them?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 02:26:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 15, 2014, 02:00:26 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 01:55:49 PM
Speaking of the Russian embargo on EU food - the Kaliningrad district is apparently pretty fucked - they border only EU countries and do not really grow their own food.
I thought Russia was going to make an exception for them?

In fascist Russia, exception makes you.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 02:27:38 PM
Um can you make exceptions like that? If I was Euroland I would refuse to sell food to Kaliningrad until Russia lifted the entire embargo.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 02:33:50 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 02:27:38 PM
Um can you make exceptions like that? If I was Euroland I would refuse to sell food to Kaliningrad until Russia lifted the entire embargo.

Well, food trade with Russia is an important part of exports for the Baltics and Poland.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 02:35:30 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 02:33:50 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 02:27:38 PM
Um can you make exceptions like that? If I was Euroland I would refuse to sell food to Kaliningrad until Russia lifted the entire embargo.

Well, food trade with Russia is an important part of exports for the Baltics and Poland.

Which is why I thought it made sense to use whatever leverage offered itself to keep that food trade going.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 15, 2014, 02:42:50 PM
Not sure if it would work with Putin though. Besides, as Poland, we are used to constant embargoes with Russia - over the last decade they banned our beef, or pork and some vegetables on and off on some false pretenses.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 02:58:33 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:02:07 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

You know nothing Jon Snow. There were roughly 3 million Hungarians left on the other side of the border following the Versailles peace treaty. 96 years later there are still 1.5 millions of them, those who dared openly declaring themselves as such.

Are they also part of an occupation force?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 03:00:31 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 02:58:33 PM
Are they also part of an occupation force?

Yep.  Or at least they were during the Nazi take over of Czechoslovakia.  What about this is so confusing Raz?  You are familiar enough with European history to know the dominant theme for the past 200 years surely.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 15, 2014, 03:01:37 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 02:58:33 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 10:02:07 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 15, 2014, 09:55:40 AM
It's been 70 years, they're Latvians now.

You know nothing Jon Snow. There were roughly 3 million Hungarians left on the other side of the border following the Versailles peace treaty. 96 years later there are still 1.5 millions of them, those who dared openly declaring themselves as such.

Are they also part of an occupation force?

Apparently you are part of an occupying force if you have the temerity to be born in a country that doesn't want you.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 03:05:50 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 10:05:36 AM

It does mean that we should understand the power and fear involved, and that it isn't as simple as we might think it is, or wish it to be.

Quote
  Besides this "existential threat" hasn't actually materialized.

Are you kidding me? Russia invaded and occupied Latvia for decades. That threat most certainly DID materialize.

Quote
There is no big crisis on whether or not Latvia should be allowed to exist.  This is nothing less then petty tribalism, nationalism and "getting even".

It is that, and more than that. Pretending it isn't won't help.

Understanding the fear involved doesn't excuse such actions.  And no Russia didn't invade, the Soviet Union did.  Then the Germans did.  Then the Latvians raised two SS divisions and killed most of the Jews.  If there were still Yiddish speaking Jews living there they would face same legal disabilities.  I think they still celebrate those SS divisions.  Keep in mind that Latvia was part of the Russian empire for a long time before the Soviet Union and it borders Russia so you are naturally going to lots of Russian speakers there as well.  In fact most Russian speakers live by the border.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 03:07:18 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 03:05:50 PM
Understanding the fear involved doesn't excuse such actions.

Yep.  So?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Brain on August 15, 2014, 03:18:27 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 03:05:50 PM
And no Russia didn't invade, the Soviet Union did.

FIAL
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 03:34:09 PM
If you guys think that I keep convincing you when you are obviously obtuse on purpose, you are mistaken.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 15, 2014, 03:49:02 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 12:30:08 PM
Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

That the Arab Spring was a positive development for the Arab world, and that we should have been in there supporting it.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 15, 2014, 03:50:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 15, 2014, 01:01:55 PM

You do realize he's trolling you, right?

I was really searching for an opportunity to slight the Pac 12 in this thread. I'm not sure if that is me trolling him, or a sign that he effectively trolled me in the college football thread.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 15, 2014, 06:10:45 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 15, 2014, 09:53:48 AMThose people, although I agree they probably haven't made that choice personally, are from the nation who forcefully occupied the Baltic States. In fact the only reason they could move there was that they were under the umbrella of their own occupying army and were considered the "same country". They are remnants of an occupation force.
So why do/should we sympathise with white Zimbabweans?

As I say for me the issue isn't what the Balts choose to do, but whether we should tolerate them in the EU. In my view European standards on human rights should apply fully for Russians in the Baltics and we shouldn't just turn a blind eye to the Baltics, as the Eurozone did to the Greeks or the EU did to Bulgarian corruption.

Similarly these laws date back to when the Baltics were joining NATO - so under a nuclear umbrella - and facing off against Boris Yeltsin's Russia. If, without extreme Euro-duress, they can't manage a liberal attitude then I'd suggest the problem is more than just realpolitik.

QuoteFor that matter, what will Europe do?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything?

Anything at all?
Tighten sanctions further. Increase troop deployments to friendly Eastern European NATO nations. Try and get Germany to realise that collecting intelligence on Russia is more important than the NSA grabbing my Facebook's status updates.

QuoteThere is no "Europe". There is the UK, France and Germany that make sweet deals with Putin and his oligarchs; Spain and Italy who couldn't care less; and Poland and the Baltics who are alternatively shitting their pants and rattling their sabers. (Un)surprisingly, the Scandies seem to be the most reasonable and principled in all of this, calling a spade a spade but telling Poles and the Balts to cool it for a while.
This is wrong. Italy's heavily intricated with Russia. The UK, of the big countries, pushed hardest for sanctions last time and, given the focus on sanctions, will be worst hit (which is right, I was worried Cameron was going to shout for sanctions but then not be willing to take a hit).

Aside from the City, where do Russian banks and companies normally go for finance? Dusseldorf? Dorpat?

Quote1. More and tougher sanctions, of course. One thing about sanctions - they idea is to hurt the people you are sanctioning. But it is going to hurt you as well, by definition. Like all actions in conflict, the idea is to hurt the other guy more than yourself, and THEIR idea is to convince you that you will hurt yourself more than them. *If you enter into the sanctions discussion with the idea that anything that will hurt you at all is not acceptable, don't bother even talking about it!*.
Sure. But the problem from a European perspective is that we're not all Europeans. The countries who'll be most fucked by the current sanctions are the Baltic states. I don't think there'll be any EU mechanism (and certainly no adequate one) to help compensate them for that. Similarly the UK is going to be most affected of the big EU countries, that's possibly because we're the country with the least to lose.

I'd also say that Putin's approach isn't about convincing but escalating the situation (and, yet again, punishing oligarchs - I feel there's something Versailles-ish in his current policy). He's going back to the 70s in terms of trade, with the added bonus of becoming a Chinese satrapy. I've thought for a while that the way to punish Putin is through the elites and the corporate-mafia of Russia, but maybe that's wrong which is even more alarming because I don't think there's a way we can control him then. It's back to containment.

Quote3. Apply more overt pressure or even threats. Start talking about the possibility of sending in direct support, perhaps air support or advisers.
Why? Are you willing to go nuclear over Lubyansk?

My view is you only send troops into an area where you're willing to tolerate their deaths and any consequences. Anything else is futile.

QuoteOh spare us. For decades the US policy towards the EU (when there was a policy towards the EU) was to make sure it stays divided enough not to become a single political entity. That's why you supported countries like the UK and Poland. :P
Again, this is the opposite of the truth :mellow:

The US has always pushed for more Europe but, historically, supported the UK and Germany (and Poland) because, historically, they've been the more Atlanticist EU countries. Even now the US has made clear they want the UK to stay in the EU if it comes to a UKIP vote. We're shit allies separately.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 15, 2014, 06:12:43 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 15, 2014, 03:49:02 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 12:30:08 PM
Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

That the Arab Spring was a positive development for the Arab world, and that we should have been in there supporting it.
Right on both counts.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 07:11:10 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 03:07:18 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 03:05:50 PM
Understanding the fear involved doesn't excuse such actions.

Yep.  So?

It's not a factor then.  I don't care what the people there are scared of:  Russians, Jews, shaved armpits, Ventriloquist dolls whatever.  Passing laws to harass and disenfranchise a major portion of native population out of fear, spite or hatred should not be tolerated.  I am unimpressed by the needs to have a "pure" state and hostile to efforts to create one.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 08:48:35 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 07:11:10 PM
It's not a factor then.  I don't care what the people there are scared of:  Russians, Jews, shaved armpits, Ventriloquist dolls whatever.  Passing laws to harass and disenfranchise a major portion of native population out of fear, spite or hatred should not be tolerated.  I am unimpressed by the needs to have a "pure" state and hostile to efforts to create one.

Ok but what lengths are we willing to go to get everybody to act in a pure and moral fashion?  We would have to use extremely coercive methods to get Latvia to act differently under the circumstances.  We are hardly paragons of virtue ourselves.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 16, 2014, 12:08:34 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 08:48:35 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 15, 2014, 07:11:10 PM
It's not a factor then.  I don't care what the people there are scared of:  Russians, Jews, shaved armpits, Ventriloquist dolls whatever.  Passing laws to harass and disenfranchise a major portion of native population out of fear, spite or hatred should not be tolerated.  I am unimpressed by the needs to have a "pure" state and hostile to efforts to create one.

Ok but what lengths are we willing to go to get everybody to act in a pure and moral fashion?  We would have to use extremely coercive methods to get Latvia to act differently under the circumstances.  We are hardly paragons of virtue ourselves.

We do our best. If we don't live up to our own standards perhaps it's because we try to reach for the stars and inevitably fall short. As members of NATO we need to pressure them, and we need to ask our EU friends to pressure them.  NATO is more then just an alliance to defend territory.  It is an alliance to defend ideas but, this is important for more then moral reasons.  We don't need to have ready made excuses for countries to hesitate to help out fellow NATO members if the Russian makes an effort there.  Russia has been able to fool some in the West with lies and exaggeration in Ukraine.  How much are they going to divide us when the truth is on their side?  This sort of petty tyranny makes them a political weak leak, and a risk to the whole alliance.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 16, 2014, 12:14:11 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 15, 2014, 06:12:43 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 15, 2014, 03:49:02 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 15, 2014, 12:30:08 PM
Oh yes, I was wrong on all those things. Tell me more how I was wrong about "the Arab Spring in general" for example?

That the Arab Spring was a positive development for the Arab world, and that we should have been in there supporting it.
Right on both counts.

I disagree, and most of the thousands of dead Syrians would also disagree if they were still around, but I don't have strong feelings either way.

Now if you start posting Pac 12 propaganda pieces, we will have to become enemies forever. Thankfully, I think the chances of that are small, and I think you are a good man.  :hug:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 01:08:03 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 15, 2014, 06:10:45 PM
So why do/should we sympathise with white Zimbabweans?

Well, it's a combination of many factors. For example, Zimbabwe does not neighbour a vastly more powerful white Zimbabwean country that is constantly making threatening noises against it.

Quote(which is right, I was worried Cameron was going to shout for sanctions but then not be willing to take a hit).

Isn't that exactly what he has been doing?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 01:25:10 AM
The problem Latvians (and for example, Ukrainians) have is that they are late to the party - the party being European nation states, which (at least the more stable ones, like France, Poland or Germany) were built to a degree on ethnic cleansing and forced deportations. We don't accept stuff like this in Europe any more but the fact is, it made these countries relatively peaceful and stable.

It's the same dilemma countries like China face when it comes to carbon gases' emmissions - sure, it is no longer acceptable to be pumping those into the air with abandon, like it used to be, but why the Western industrialised countries - who used to do that when it was still cool and got super rich on that - should get away with this, but the newcomers must be handicapped?

This dilemma makes the moral absolutism Sheilbh, garbon and Raz display somewhat unreasonable and/or hypocritical. We should either put pressure on these countries but then help them cope with the inherent instability of having a sizeable (and hostile) ethnic minority within their borders by offering some extra aid - or we should turn a blind eye to "soft" ethnic cleansing they are practising. Just telling them to shape up and offering nothing in return will not do.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 16, 2014, 02:04:03 AM
I don't see why these groups have to be "hostile", despite the bitching and whining of grallon and viper, Canada is made up of two nations and does fairly well.  Nor am I saying there can't be rewards for getting rid of bad laws.  Even the stable ones like France and Germany have and had problems.  Germany is a particularly poor example since we found Germany's solution to a feared ethnic minority inexcusable.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 04:02:06 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 16, 2014, 02:04:03 AM
I don't see why these groups have to be "hostile"

I am not sure what point you are arguing. My point is that in the Baltics and Ukraine Russian minority is hostile to the very existence of the state. These are not people who migrated there to seek better life for themselves - they came as a part of the occupation force, resent their new homeland's newfound independence and more or less loudly voice their opinions that all of this should go back to Mother Russia.

Raz, in the other thread you admitted that I was right and you were wrong about Erdogan. Why don't you acknowledge that when it comes to CEE issues, I have generally better insights than you, especially if Tamas (the only other resident Eastern European) agrees 100% with me?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: The Brain on August 16, 2014, 04:11:34 AM
needs moar edits
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 04:13:05 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 16, 2014, 04:11:34 AM
needs moar edits

:D
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 16, 2014, 05:13:05 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 04:02:06 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 16, 2014, 02:04:03 AM
I don't see why these groups have to be "hostile"

I am not sure what point you are arguing. My point is that in the Baltics and Ukraine Russian minority is hostile to the very existence of the state. These are not people who migrated there to seek better life for themselves - they came as a part of the occupation force, resent their new homeland's newfound independence and more or less loudly voice their opinions that all of this should go back to Mother Russia.

Raz, in the other thread you admitted that I was right and you were wrong about Erdogan. Why don't you acknowledge that when it comes to CEE issues, I have generally better insights than you, especially if Tamas (the only other resident Eastern European) agrees 100% with me?

Well you weren't completely right.  You were talking about a Muslim theocracy.  That hasn't happened.  In fact Erdogan's main rival is a cleric.  He's more of a Putin.  I am saying that this opinion that certain groups must be removed for the good of the state is stupid balkantardism.  I'm sure some people believe that, but it's not true.  People in that part of the world also believe that Jews fly in through the windows at night to eat their blood.  Neither you or Tamas can ever be enlightened Westerners when you cling to this idea of ethnic cleansing.  In fact this sort of thing makes it more likely not less likely that the state will be destroyed.  A country that wages war on it's on people is in dire trouble.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 16, 2014, 07:24:58 AM
Marti, you might be very well right that such is backwards states need to do to survive. I'm not sure why we should approve of that though.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 16, 2014, 08:21:55 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 15, 2014, 08:48:35 PMOk but what lengths are we willing to go to get everybody to act in a pure and moral fashion?  We would have to use extremely coercive methods to get Latvia to act differently under the circumstances.  We are hardly paragons of virtue ourselves.
Not let them into the EU until they change and fully meet the minimum standards.

No issues with letting them into NATO because that's not got a similar emphasis on human rights. But lots of countries, especially in Eastern Europe, were desperate to join the EU and jumped through all sorts of hoops to get in. Even now it's the best tool in Western Balkans, and Serbia especially is making huge progress (interesting sidenote Serbia hasn't applied the EU's sanctions on Russia, Montenegro which is, allegedly, flooded with oligarch money has - it's weird because from everything I've read Russia doesn't really care about Serbia, but does about Montenegro), with the exception of Bosnia.

QuoteIsn't that exactly what he has been doing?
According to the leaked Commission document on the latest round of sanctions the big country who'll be hurt most is the UK. The overwhelming focus of the sanctions was on access to finance and biggest centre for that is London. Russia's a small part of the market in London, but it's still expected to have more of a negative impact here than in Germany or France.

QuoteThe problem Latvians (and for example, Ukrainians) have is that they are late to the party - the party being European nation states, which (at least the more stable ones, like France, Poland or Germany) were built to a degree on ethnic cleansing and forced deportations. We don't accept stuff like this in Europe any more but the fact is, it made these countries relatively peaceful and stable.
I think this is true. A similar process could be starting in the Middle East.

QuoteWe should either put pressure on these countries but then help them cope with the inherent instability of having a sizeable (and hostile) ethnic minority within their borders by offering some extra aid - or we should turn a blind eye to "soft" ethnic cleansing they are practising. Just telling them to shape up and offering nothing in return will not do.
I've no issue with offering them help. My view is that we should have told them to shape up and, in return, they get to join the EU like Lithuania or Poland who don't have discriminatory laws against minorities.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Solmyr on August 16, 2014, 08:49:48 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 16, 2014, 08:21:55 AM
According to the leaked Commission document on the latest round of sanctions the big country who'll be hurt most is the UK. The overwhelming focus of the sanctions was on access to finance and biggest centre for that is London. Russia's a small part of the market in London, but it's still expected to have more of a negative impact here than in Germany or France.

There's been a lot of whining in Finland about the sanctions, since many Finnish companies trade heavily with Russia. The dairy company Valio was hard-hit by the food import restrictions, I think about a fifth of their trade is export of milk and dairy products to Russia.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 09:31:24 AM
Sheilbh, Lithuania has a pretty bad track record when it comes to treatment of minorities, actually. I thought we were singling out Latvia as an example - all Baltics have similar laws (for example Polish minority in Lithuania was forced to re-transcribe their last names to look like Lithuanian ones - in fact treatment of Polish minority in Lithuania is a cause for constant diplomatic crises between these two countries).
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 16, 2014, 09:36:39 AM
How transcribe the Polish names? Adding the 1st case (nominative) endings to them? IIRC Lithuanians do that to all names, including foreign proper names. E.g. GWB is called "Džordžas Volkeris Bušas" (http://lt.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush), and I guess that's just how their language works.

Or was there a bigger change required?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 09:55:04 AM
Something like that, yes. For the record, normal countries (which, for this purpose include Poland) do not require you to change your name from Martin to Marcin if you move here.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 16, 2014, 11:38:41 AM
Czechs change foreign female surnames to -ová, too.

http://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clintonov%C3%A1
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 16, 2014, 12:39:13 PM
Quote from: celedhring on August 16, 2014, 11:38:41 AM
Czechs change foreign female surnames to -ová, too.

http://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clintonov%C3%A1

Yeah, I've known a "De Beukelaerova." :lol:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 16, 2014, 03:38:34 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 16, 2014, 09:55:04 AM
Something like that, yes. For the record, normal countries (which, for this purpose include Poland) do not require you to change your name from Martin to Marcin if you move here.

I think it depends on the language.  English is very flexible.  Chinese isn't.  Translating someone's name into Chinese characters has got to be difficult.  A long time ago immigrants to the US often had their names changed when they came in because immigration clerks didn't know how to spell it and the people coming in were illiterate or simply didn't speak English well.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:24:05 AM
That's all a bit different from someone who (as a Polish minority in the Soviet Union) went through his entire life being legally called "Witold" and then suddenly he is being told that he has to change his name to "Vytautas" in his legal documents, no?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 17, 2014, 05:03:42 AM
Yeah, that does sound like a petty tyranny.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 05:30:41 AM
Quote
Ukraine foreign minister calls on NATO, EU to give military support
Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:14pm BST

BERLIN (Reuters) - Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin called on NATO and the European Union to provide military support for Ukrainian troops fighting pro-Russian separatists and said the Western military alliance needed to come up with a new strategy towards Kiev.

The four-month conflict in eastern Ukraine has reached a critical phase and a separatist leader said on Saturday that Ukrainian rebels were receiving new military equipment and troops trained in Russia, and would launch a major counter-offensive against government forces.

Klimkin told German radio station Deutschlandfunk the EU and NATO needed to consider what they could and would do if rules get broken, adding that this was the case when Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in March and was also true of Russia's actions in Donetsk and Luhansk now.

"It's a really tough question for the European Union and NATO: What can they do if a war is practically ... being mongered in Europe by a European country?" he said according to a transcript of the interview due to be broadcast on Sunday.

"And that's why, if they say 'We can't do much there,' it gives rise to the question: How can you then continue to be seen as a responsible partner?"

Asked if he was appealing to the EU and NATO for military aid, Klimkin said: "Yes of course. We need military aid because if we got such aid, it would be easier for our troops on the ground to act."

He said Ukraine faced a tough situation economically and financially so needed help now but would later repay this aid. Alongside direct aid, the country also needed the EU to help it implement reforms, Klimkin said.

He said NATO needed to adopt a new strategy towards Ukraine. Asked what he hoped would come out a NATO summit planned for September, he said he would like Ukraine to get political support, more aid for its troops, help with reforms and help in areas like "fighting terrorism" and cyber security.

But he said there was no question of Ukraine becoming a NATO member at the moment as it lacked consensus at home.

He said the danger of a Russian invasion was omnipresent, adding that Ukrainian troops were coming under fire from Russian territory almost daily and Russia was bringing mercenary soldiers and weapons into the country.

On Friday Ukraine said its artillery destroyed part of an armoured column that entered its territory from Russia overnight. It said its forces came under shellfire from Russia in what seemed to be a major military escalation between the ex-Soviet states.

Klimkin said Ukraine would "fight until the last moment" for Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Asked why Kiev had not declared a state of war, he said that would worsen conditions for people as so-called war commanders would then take responsibility on the ground and some laws would no longer apply.

Klimkin is due to meet his Russian, German and French counterparts in Berlin on Sunday to discuss the Ukraine crisis. The French government has said it hopes the meeting will be the first step towards a Ukraine-Russia peace summit.

(Reporting by Michelle Martin

Will Rohan answer? :unsure:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 17, 2014, 09:14:27 AM
God I wish we would.  We won't, but I wish we would. :(
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: LaCroix on August 17, 2014, 11:24:10 AM
i hope not. diplomatic and economic support, not military :yes:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 17, 2014, 11:51:52 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:24:05 AM
That's all a bit different from someone who (as a Polish minority in the Soviet Union) went through his entire life being legally called "Witold" and then suddenly he is being told that he has to change his name to "Vytautas" in his legal documents, no?

LOL, "Witold"
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 17, 2014, 12:13:52 PM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 17, 2014, 11:24:10 AM
i hope not. diplomatic and economic support, not military :yes:

Why not?

Russia is providing military aid to the insurgents, so that rubicon has been crossed.

If the West is serious about supporting the Ukraine, we should be willing to match the help that Russia is giving against the Ukraine.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 17, 2014, 12:18:38 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 17, 2014, 12:13:52 PM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 17, 2014, 11:24:10 AM
i hope not. diplomatic and economic support, not military :yes:

Why not?

Russia is providing military aid to the insurgents, so that rubicon has been crossed.

If the West is serious about supporting the Ukraine, we should be willing to match the help that Russia is giving against the Ukraine.
To be fair, Russia is delivering artillery ammunition to Ukrainian troops as well.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: LaCroix on August 17, 2014, 12:20:30 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 17, 2014, 12:13:52 PMWhy not?

Russia is providing military aid to the insurgents, so that rubicon has been crossed.

If the West is serious about supporting the Ukraine, we should be willing to match the help that Russia is giving against the Ukraine.

if we're talking about providing military arms, then sure. i don't think we should directly kill russian soldiers, though.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 17, 2014, 01:27:25 PM
Quote from: LaCroix on August 17, 2014, 12:20:30 PM
Quote from: Berkut on August 17, 2014, 12:13:52 PMWhy not?

Russia is providing military aid to the insurgents, so that rubicon has been crossed.

If the West is serious about supporting the Ukraine, we should be willing to match the help that Russia is giving against the Ukraine.

if we're talking about providing military arms, then sure. i don't think we should directly kill russian soldiers, though.

That, I think, is what is being talked about. I don't think there is any serious proposal to engage in direct intervention.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 17, 2014, 02:04:46 PM
We're already giving them body armor and night vision gear.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 17, 2014, 02:09:54 PM
This is the mother of all boring ass invasions. Wars of conquest in the 21st century are more tedious than any other point in history.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Apparently, nationalists from the Pravy sektor have put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government, demanding the interior minister is fired or they will "march on Kiev". That's the problem with Eastern Europe - you quickly run out of sides to root for.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Solmyr on August 17, 2014, 04:03:45 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 17, 2014, 11:51:52 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:24:05 AM
That's all a bit different from someone who (as a Polish minority in the Soviet Union) went through his entire life being legally called "Witold" and then suddenly he is being told that he has to change his name to "Vytautas" in his legal documents, no?

LOL, "Witold"

Considering it's originally a Lithuanian name... :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 17, 2014, 04:07:21 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Apparently, nationalists from the Pravy sektor have put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government, demanding the interior minister is fired or they will "march on Kiev". That's the problem with Eastern Europe - you quickly run out of sides to root for.

Any side that pisses off a bunch of nazis like Right Sector is a side I can easily root for.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 18, 2014, 12:10:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on August 17, 2014, 04:07:21 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Apparently, nationalists from the Pravy sektor have put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government, demanding the interior minister is fired or they will "march on Kiev". That's the problem with Eastern Europe - you quickly run out of sides to root for.

Any side that pisses off a bunch of nazis like Right Sector is a side I can easily root for.

What I meant it's only a matter of time before nazis take over in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 18, 2014, 09:16:47 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 18, 2014, 12:10:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on August 17, 2014, 04:07:21 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Apparently, nationalists from the Pravy sektor have put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government, demanding the interior minister is fired or they will "march on Kiev". That's the problem with Eastern Europe - you quickly run out of sides to root for.

Any side that pisses off a bunch of nazis like Right Sector is a side I can easily root for.

What I meant it's only a matter of time before nazis take over in Ukraine.

The head of the Right Sector ran for President in the recent elections.

He got: 0.7% of the vote.

I would not hold my breath ...
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 18, 2014, 09:23:37 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 18, 2014, 09:16:47 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 18, 2014, 12:10:18 AM
Quote from: celedhring on August 17, 2014, 04:07:21 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 17, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Apparently, nationalists from the Pravy sektor have put an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government, demanding the interior minister is fired or they will "march on Kiev". That's the problem with Eastern Europe - you quickly run out of sides to root for.

Any side that pisses off a bunch of nazis like Right Sector is a side I can easily root for.

What I meant it's only a matter of time before nazis take over in Ukraine.

The head of the Right Sector ran for President in the recent elections.

He got: 0.7% of the vote.

I would not hold my breath ...
Wow, that's even less than what Gary Johnson got in 2012. :o
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Alcibiades on August 18, 2014, 10:13:37 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 17, 2014, 09:14:27 AM
God I wish we would.  We won't, but I wish we would. :(

Going to enlist?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 18, 2014, 12:37:42 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on August 18, 2014, 10:13:37 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 17, 2014, 09:14:27 AM
God I wish we would.  We won't, but I wish we would. :(

Going to enlist?  :hmm:

I always thought Raz was crazy, not dumb.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 18, 2014, 01:25:04 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on August 18, 2014, 10:13:37 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 17, 2014, 09:14:27 AM
God I wish we would.  We won't, but I wish we would. :(

Going to enlist?  :hmm:

They won't take me. :(  I've tried.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 02:12:51 PM
Private Raz Pyle.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: garbon on August 18, 2014, 02:41:38 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn1.vox-cdn.com%2Fthumbor%2Fp-LaztD-RsbYpZ_ywla-4oKIPUc%3D%2F775x0%2Ffilters%3Ano_upscale%28%29%2Fcdn1.vox-cdn.com%2Fuploads%2Fchorus_asset%2Ffile%2F658380%2Frussia_favorability_rating_2013.0.png&hash=bb0550a4b6ac8f4e12d896362d5fe51621dbd139)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn1.vox-cdn.com%2Fthumbor%2FU9ugDlZtdfaiBZO5Pj1nX0nNOVQ%3D%2F775x0%2Ffilters%3Ano_upscale%28%29%2Fcdn1.vox-cdn.com%2Fuploads%2Fchorus_asset%2Ffile%2F658368%2Frussia_favorability_rating_2014.0.png&hash=5203513af45ccff030980823dedead1aa31703ed)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 03:02:01 PM
So much of East Asia fails. Et tu, Philippines?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 18, 2014, 05:32:19 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 02:12:51 PM
Private Raz Pyle.

Apparently a history of psychosis is a problem.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 18, 2014, 05:35:10 PM
What did they do to piss Pakistan off?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 18, 2014, 05:37:01 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 18, 2014, 05:35:10 PM
What did they do to piss Pakistan off?
Snuggle up to India?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 18, 2014, 05:38:32 PM
India doesn't like them either.  :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 18, 2014, 07:00:51 PM
I was a bit surprised about India not liking Russia.  Also I wonder why approval went up in the Philippines.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 07:11:16 PM
It is nice to see that Vietnam still has warm feelings for Russia. The USSR got the assist on their unification, so saying nice things about Russia in a survey is the least they can do.

It is interesting that Syria hates them.

Ukraine also hates them, but not so much.  :hmm:

Greece.  :rolleyes:

The Philippines loving them more after the last year.  :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 08:38:08 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 18, 2014, 05:32:19 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 02:12:51 PM
Private Raz Pyle.

Apparently a history of psychosis is a problem.

You just have to focus yours in a constructive way.  Like Siegy does.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 18, 2014, 09:39:12 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 08:38:08 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 18, 2014, 05:32:19 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 18, 2014, 02:12:51 PM
Private Raz Pyle.

Apparently a history of psychosis is a problem.

You just have to focus yours in a constructive way.  Like Siegy does.

I think they lowered the standards by the time he got in.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 12:44:03 AM
I like how Poland seems to be the only country that dropped by two levels. :D
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 19, 2014, 03:01:26 AM
I wonder what Russia had done to Mexico in 2013.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:56:55 AM
We don't know if this attitude only started in 2013. They could still be pissed off about Trotsky.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 19, 2014, 04:04:36 AM
Yeah, I presumed that.

But I mean, countries like Turkey and Egypt at least have a story with Russia and the Soviet Union. But Mexico?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 19, 2014, 10:04:06 AM
I heard yesterday that the anti-corruption person of the government resigned because, in her words, there was no interest in Ukrainian politics to get rid of the rampant corruption.

Also:

http://www.dw.de/putin-and-poroshenko-to-meet-at-minsk-summit/a-17863400

QuotePutin and Poroshenko to meet at Minsk summit

The EU, Russia and Ukraine have confirmed a multilateral summit, to be held in Belarus one week from now. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko will be among the participants.

Officials in Kyiv, Moscow and Brussels on Tuesday confirmed a top-level summit in Minsk on August 26, where Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko will again meet following their brief talks during the D-Day anniversary celebrations in June. Members of the Eurasian Customs Union - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan - will be joined by a Ukrainian delegation and senior EU officials.

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that the leaders "will discuss the relations between Ukraine and the Customs Union and there will be a number of bilateral meetings."

Ukraine's Poroshenko, elected earlier this year, said "stabilizing the situation" in eastern Ukraine would be a key topic of discussion. Ukraine's military and pro-Russian separatists have fought for control of the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk since April.

On Tuesday, the Ukrainian military said that separatists had attacked a convoy of buses and cars carrying refugees displaced by the fighting - a charge the separatists rejected. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso called for the alleged incident to be investigated, after a phone call with Poroshenko.

Barroso also announced that the EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, trade commissioner Karel De Gucht, and energy commissioner Günther Oettinger would attend the August 26 summit in Minsk.

The Eurasian Customs Union is a three-country trade bloc scheduled to be turned into a free-trade zone called the Eurasian Economic Union by 2015. Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's decision last November to break off integration talks with the EU and instead seek membership of this trade zone helped prompt the mass-protests in Kyiv that ultimately led to a change in Ukrainian government and the current tensions with Russia.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Agelastus on August 19, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
Quote from: garbon on August 18, 2014, 02:41:38 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn1.vox-cdn.com%2Fthumbor%2FU9ugDlZtdfaiBZO5Pj1nX0nNOVQ%3D%2F775x0%2Ffilters%3Ano_upscale%28%29%2Fcdn1.vox-cdn.com%2Fuploads%2Fchorus_asset%2Ffile%2F658368%2Frussia_favorability_rating_2014.0.png&hash=5203513af45ccff030980823dedead1aa31703ed)

Big question for me is what have the Russians been up to in East Africa that makes them so well liked. Their stance on same-sex relationships, perhaps? :hmm:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:04:20 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on August 19, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
Big question for me is what have the Russians been up to in East Africa that makes them so well liked. Their stance on same-sex relationships, perhaps? :hmm:

I was thinking the same thing (or, more precisely, that's a part of it), namely Putin has consistently been trying to present himself as a global champion of non-Islamic social conservatism. American Republicans and Polish right wingers would probably love him, if he wasn't Russian.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Jacob on August 20, 2014, 04:09:32 PM
Belarus has become a maritime nation recently, exporting Belarussian shrimp to Russia: https://twitter.com/narkeviciute/status/502183217185951744
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 20, 2014, 05:36:33 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:04:20 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on August 19, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
Big question for me is what have the Russians been up to in East Africa that makes them so well liked. Their stance on same-sex relationships, perhaps? :hmm:

I was thinking the same thing (or, more precisely, that's a part of it), namely Putin has consistently been trying to present himself as a global champion of non-Islamic social conservatism. American Republicans and Polish right wingers would probably love him, if he wasn't Russian.

Yeah I know, isn't.  Putin has some fans in the US, but most can't get past his KGB past.  If he worked in the same capacity for Franco or Pinochet it would be fine.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 20, 2014, 06:14:27 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:04:20 PM

I was thinking the same thing (or, more precisely, that's a part of it), namely Putin has consistently been trying to present himself as a global champion of non-Islamic social conservatism. American Republicans and Polish right wingers would probably love him, if he wasn't Russian.
Yep. 'Traditional values', a corrupt capitalist state and managed democracy is a model that a fair few countries may follow and Putin's their pioneer.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2014, 11:48:26 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:04:20 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on August 19, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
Big question for me is what have the Russians been up to in East Africa that makes them so well liked. Their stance on same-sex relationships, perhaps? :hmm:

I was thinking the same thing (or, more precisely, that's a part of it), namely Putin has consistently been trying to present himself as a global champion of non-Islamic social conservatism. American Republicans and Polish right wingers would probably love him, if he wasn't Russian.

Hungarian right-wingers do love him. Of course, they are more like national socialists in terms of the pure meaning of that, not right-wingers economically.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 21, 2014, 12:58:52 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 20, 2014, 05:36:33 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 03:04:20 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on August 19, 2014, 02:50:00 PM
Big question for me is what have the Russians been up to in East Africa that makes them so well liked. Their stance on same-sex relationships, perhaps? :hmm:

I was thinking the same thing (or, more precisely, that's a part of it), namely Putin has consistently been trying to present himself as a global champion of non-Islamic social conservatism. American Republicans and Polish right wingers would probably love him, if he wasn't Russian.

Yeah I know, isn't.  Putin has some fans in the US, but most can't get past his KGB past.  If he worked in the same capacity for Franco or Pinochet it would be fine.

Thank God for Russophobia. :P
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 22, 2014, 05:54:00 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28892525

QuoteRussia accused of invading Ukraine as aid trucks cross

Lorries from a Russian aid convoy are streaming into Ukraine without permission, after Russia accused Ukraine of unreasonable obstruction.

Russia's foreign ministry said Ukraine had held up the convoy in order to pursue war against rebels in Luhansk, where the aid is destined.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it was "not part of that convoy in any way".

A Ukraine official said responsibility for the convoy rested on the Russians.

Reports suggest the lorries are being escorted by rebel fighters.

"Our humanitarian aid convoy is starting to move towards Luhansk," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement (in Russian).

It warned Ukraine not to take any action against the convoy without specifying the consequences.

Ukraine fears that the aid convoy of at least 260 lorries, which arrived at the border more than a week ago, is part of a broader Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.

Russia denies accusations that it arms and trains the rebels in the rebellion in Luhansk and the neighbouring region of Donetsk, where four months of fighting have left more than 2,000 people dead and has caused more than 330,000 people to flee their homes.

The rebel-held city of Luhansk has been without running water, power and phone communications for 20 days as government forces hold it under siege.
'Rebel escort'

As many as 70 lorries have entered Ukrainian territory, moving out of the no-man's land between the Russian and Ukrainian border posts.

Reporters at the scene saw rebel fighters in front of the convoy as it passed over the border in a rebel-held sector near the Russian town of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky.

It is normally a drive of about two hours from the lorries' camp to the city of Luhansk.

However, it is unclear if the convoy will be able to use the motorway there because of continuing combat between rebels and government forces.

An ICRC spokesperson in Moscow said it had concluded that it had not "received the necessary security guarantees from the fighting parties to allow us to escort the convoy at this time".

It cited "heavy shelling overnight" in Luhansk.

"We understand that the convoy is now moving, however the ICRC is not part of that convoy in any way," the spokesperson added.

The Russian branch of the ICRC said earlier it was ready to take part in the relief operation and was contacting its international colleagues.
Warning

"We are warning against any attempts to sabotage this purely humanitarian mission, which was prepared a long time ago, in an atmosphere of full transparency and in co-operation with the Ukrainian side and the ICRC," the Russian foreign ministry said.

Delays in Ukrainian clearance for the convoy had "become unbearable", it said.

"All excuses for blocking the delivery of aid to people in the area where this humanitarian catastrophe is happening have been exhausted," it added.

"The Russian side has decided to act. Our convoy carrying humanitarian aid is beginning to move towards Luhansk."

A Ukrainian government official told BBC News in Kiev: "The Red Cross did not take part in all the procedures on the border. Ukrainian border guards cannot take part if the Red Cross is not participating.

"All responsibility lies with the Russian side - not with the terrorists, but specifically the Russian side, because this is their decision."

In a statement on its website (in Russian), Luhansk's official council reported on Friday that the dire situation in the city remained unchanged with no halt in the bombardment.



Analysis: Daniel Sandford, BBC News

The risk of the Russian aid convoy causing a further deterioration in relations with Ukraine is now very high. Because the International Committee of the Red Cross is not part of the convoy, the government in Kiev may choose not to recognise it as a humanitarian mission.

The lorries are currently being accompanied by pro-Russian gunmen. So the convoy is likely to be stopped at the front line near the besieged city of Luhansk. Or if it tries to work its way around the Ukrainian government forces, there is a risk of it being attacked - accidentally or intentionally.

The Russian foreign ministry has already a clear sent warning that if the convoy is attacked, Moscow may take action.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Warspite on August 22, 2014, 06:46:36 AM
And, while Russia is basically invading a European state and directly challenging the post-WW2 security order on the continent, Chuck Hagel thinks ISIS is the primary threat to US interests everywhere.  :huh:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Grinning_Colossus on August 22, 2014, 08:06:01 AM
Quote from: Warspite on August 22, 2014, 06:46:36 AM
And, while Russia is basically invading a European state and directly challenging the post-WW2 security order on the continent, Chuck Hagel thinks ISIS is the primary threat to US interests everywhere.  :huh:

Russia isn't going to blow up our embassies or fly airplanes into our buildings.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 22, 2014, 09:01:53 AM
Quote from: Grinning_Colossus on August 22, 2014, 08:06:01 AM
Quote from: Warspite on August 22, 2014, 06:46:36 AM
And, while Russia is basically invading a European state and directly challenging the post-WW2 security order on the continent, Chuck Hagel thinks ISIS is the primary threat to US interests everywhere.  :huh:

Russia isn't going to blow up our embassies or fly airplanes into our buildings.
Yes, but it can do far bigger damage.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 09:12:22 AM
Meanwhile, the other side of the globe is the epicenter of the world's biggest conventional arms race for the last 20 years, and are diving headfirst into classic 19th century nation-state power politics on a grand scale predicated on the most basic origins of conflict: national prestige and natural resources.

But no, we've got Europeans sweating us over Russia being Russia, and our military-industrial complex obsessing over the latest edition of monkey bar-swinging Mooselimbs.

Don't bother calling your local cable provider when the Chinese splash all our satellites into the Pacific in 2025.  Assholes.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 22, 2014, 09:21:15 AM
The Chinese are our friends.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 09:29:19 AM
Maybe if you're a sub-Saharan poacher.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 22, 2014, 10:10:51 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 09:29:19 AM
Maybe if you're a sub-Saharan poacher.

Does that pay well?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 22, 2014, 11:01:16 AM
Quote from: Warspite on August 22, 2014, 06:46:36 AM
And, while Russia is basically invading a European state and directly challenging the post-WW2 security order on the continent, Chuck Hagel thinks ISIS is the primary threat to US interests everywhere.  :huh:

Which dog is more dangerous, the wild, rabid beagle or the Rottweiler whose chain is just a bit too long to keep them in their own yard?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Alcibiades on August 22, 2014, 11:14:50 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 19, 2014, 12:44:03 AM
I like how Poland seems to be the only country that dropped by two levels. :D

Map is too hard for you to read then, apparently.  Not that anyone expects anything different, being Polish and the resident idiot.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Alcibiades on August 22, 2014, 11:17:40 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 09:12:22 AM
Don't bother calling your local cable provider when the Chinese splash all our satellites into the Pacific in 2025.  Assholes.

We are not overly concerned about that, actually.   :ph34r:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 22, 2014, 11:18:49 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 09:12:22 AM
Meanwhile, the other side of the globe is the epicenter of the world's biggest conventional arms race for the last 20 years, and are diving headfirst into classic 19th century nation-state power politics on a grand scale predicated on the most basic origins of conflict: national prestige and natural resources.

But no, we've got Europeans sweating us over Russia being Russia, and our military-industrial complex obsessing over the latest edition of monkey bar-swinging Mooselimbs.

Don't bother calling your local cable provider when the Chinese splash all our satellites into the Pacific in 2025.  Assholes.

Uh, ISIS is an army and Russia is invading it's neighbor.  I think that's bigger strategic problem then Chinese chicks cock blocking you.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 22, 2014, 11:25:30 AM
Boom.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:28:40 AM
They see me Razzin', they be hatin'.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 22, 2014, 02:52:28 PM
http://online.wsj.com/articles/nato-russians-using-artillery-inside-ukraine-1408732942?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203858004580107940374684262.html

QuoteNATO: Russians Using Artillery Inside Ukraine

NATO Secretary-General Says Escalation Coincides With Entry of Humanitarian Convoy

BRUSSELS—Russia has been using artillery against Ukraine forces both from its own territory and from inside Ukraine itself, officials of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said.

"Russian artillery support –both cross-border and from within Ukraine –is being employed against the Ukrainian armed forces," said NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu.

The reports of Russian artillery inside Ukraine, operated both by separatists and by Russian forces themselves, is a new and potentially volatile development.


"Since mid-August we have multiple reports of the direct involvement of including Russian airborne, air defense and special operations forces in eastern Ukraine," Ms. Lungescu said.

She added, "We have also seen transfers of large quantities of advanced weapons, including tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery, to separatist groups in eastern Ukraine. And for weeks we have seen an alarming buildup of Russian ground and air forces in the vicinity of Ukraine."

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said what is "even more worrying" is that the Russian military escalation is coinciding with the entry of the purportedly humanitarian convoy into Ukraine.

"This is a blatant breach of Russia's international commitments, including those made recently in Berlin and Geneva, and a further violation of Ukraine's sovereignty by Russia," Mr. Rasmussen said. "It can only deepen the crisis in the region, which Russia itself has created and has continued to fuel. The disregard of international humanitarian principles raises further questions about whether the true purpose of the aid convoy is to support civilians or to resupply armed separatists."

"potentially volatile development" - Ya think?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 22, 2014, 02:53:39 PM
From RT:

Quote"Given the obvious protractions by Kiev on the issue of the delivery of Russian aid to southeast regions of Ukraine, which are suffering a humanitarian catastrophe, a decision was made on sending the convoy. Further delaying it would have been unacceptable," Putin told Merkel on Friday, the Kremlin's press service reported.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tonitrus on August 22, 2014, 06:25:10 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:28:40 AM
They see me Razzin', they be hatin'.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/22/world/asia/us-china-air-encounter/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

:console:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: grumbler on August 22, 2014, 06:42:20 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 22, 2014, 06:25:10 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:28:40 AM
They see me Razzin', they be hatin'.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/22/world/asia/us-china-air-encounter/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

:console:

Yeah, that's the Chinese government response to anything they see as infringing on their imperial ambitions.  The fact that the US wussed out when confronted in the Hainan Island incident just bolsters the Chinese aggression.  The US needs to escort those missions for a few months to make a point, and if the Chinese continue to ignore international law, they need to "splash the Zeros" after appropriate warnings. The Chinese government respects strength.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 22, 2014, 08:35:10 PM
WTF.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.bbcimg.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F77126000%2Fjpg%2F_77126623_023589610-1.jpg&hash=ae44adcc35bb7fdc7dd4bac7c5f255630da7b45b)

Rebels consider auditioning for the new Mad Max film?

In the photos metadata or at least in attached comments:
Quote
Pro-Russian rebels talk in a field near the village of Khryaschevatoye, eastern Ukraine (23 August 2014)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tonitrus on August 22, 2014, 08:46:27 PM
That looks like just a 4-wheel Can-AM ATV.  Trendy for the upper-class outdoorsman in the Alaska bush as well.

Edit: Nope, only 4-wheels.  Looks like the Commander Max model.

http://can-am.brp.com/off-road/side-by-side/commander-max.html

And if they were auditioning for a Mad Max film, they'd need studded leather chaps and maybe a hockey mask.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:45:43 PM
Quote from: grumbler on August 22, 2014, 06:42:20 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 22, 2014, 06:25:10 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:28:40 AM
They see me Razzin', they be hatin'.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/22/world/asia/us-china-air-encounter/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

:console:

Yeah, that's the Chinese government response to anything they see as infringing on their imperial ambitions.  The fact that the US wussed out when confronted in the Hainan Island incident just bolsters the Chinese aggression.  The US needs to escort those missions for a few months to make a point, and if the Chinese continue to ignore international law, they need to "splash the Zeros" after appropriate warnings. The Chinese government respects strength.

At least somebody other than me gets it.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 23, 2014, 01:12:03 AM
The Lithuanian foreign ministry says their honorary consul in Lugansk was kidnapped and shot.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 23, 2014, 05:50:03 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:45:43 PM
Quote from: grumbler on August 22, 2014, 06:42:20 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 22, 2014, 06:25:10 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2014, 11:28:40 AM
They see me Razzin', they be hatin'.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/22/world/asia/us-china-air-encounter/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

:console:

Yeah, that's the Chinese government response to anything they see as infringing on their imperial ambitions.  The fact that the US wussed out when confronted in the Hainan Island incident just bolsters the Chinese aggression.  The US needs to escort those missions for a few months to make a point, and if the Chinese continue to ignore international law, they need to "splash the Zeros" after appropriate warnings. The Chinese government respects strength.

At least somebody other than me gets it.

Three front war?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 23, 2014, 07:56:15 AM
Quote from: mongers on August 23, 2014, 05:50:03 AM
Three front war?

No, just a real, good ol' fashioned realpolitik cold war, which is the only kind that matters.  Not the Russian nuisance bullshit that isn't a threat to NATO, and not the Dangerous-Dune-Coons-of-the-Month fearmongering from the Middle Least.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Solmyr on August 23, 2014, 09:56:24 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 23, 2014, 01:12:03 AM
The Lithuanian foreign ministry says their honorary consul in Lugansk was kidnapped and shot.

Why the fuck did they have a consul in Lugansk?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Jacob on August 23, 2014, 03:08:21 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on August 23, 2014, 09:56:24 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 23, 2014, 01:12:03 AM
The Lithuanian foreign ministry says their honorary consul in Lugansk was kidnapped and shot.

Why the fuck did they have a consul in Lugansk?

Honorary consul.

Generally they are locals with strong connections to both countries, and are appointed to facility trade ties. A typical honorary consul is a local businessman fluent in both countries, with business and ethnic ties. He's your go-to guy if you want to import/export from one of the two countries, or set up a local cultural exchange (like say a student exchange, or a visiting orchestra, or whatever).
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 23, 2014, 08:19:32 PM
Quote from: Syt on August 23, 2014, 01:12:03 AM
The Lithuanian foreign ministry says their honorary consul in Lugansk was kidnapped and shot.
Greeneland is now Eastern Europe :mellow:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 24, 2014, 10:31:55 AM
Here's Russian rebels "parading" the Ukrainian prisoners in Donetsk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B_3Tq3u3c0

Savage Russian beasts.  :glare:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Solmyr on August 26, 2014, 01:38:20 PM
http://www.rferl.org/contentlive/liveblog/25416257.html

QuoteBREAKING from our Minsk bureau:

Alyaksandr Lukashenka has just emerged alone from a common dinner at the Minsk summit to make the following statement:

"Unfortunately, the situation in Ukraine has deteriorated to such an extent that no agreements on a political level can bring about a solution."
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Jacob on August 26, 2014, 01:42:49 PM
Oh everything makes sense now! It's just a simple misunderstanding!

Russian soldiers in the Ukraine crossed the border by accident!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28934213
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 26, 2014, 01:52:27 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bv--xXrCcAAFZpx.jpg)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Solmyr on August 26, 2014, 02:01:02 PM
(https://scontent-b-ams.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/1979741_821410397899828_9083394458770276267_n.jpg?oh=d71e600f9379eb75e64cf962dcc84d1c&oe=5464FE3D)

Text says:
Fistfight at the Minsk summit
... and that's for the Malaysian Boeing
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 26, 2014, 02:04:03 PM
Beets, eggplants and slavs fail at memes.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 02:22:25 AM
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-russia-troop-movements-ceasefire/26553037.html

QuoteU.S.: Reports Indicate 'Russian-Directed' Battle In Ukraine

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki says reports from eastern and southeastern Ukraine "indicate that a Russian-directed counteroffensive is likely under way" against government forces in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Psaki said on August 27 that the reports include descriptions of "columns of Russian tanks, multiple rocket launchers, and armored vehicles pushing toward communities in southeastern Ukraine."

She said they also include reports of "heavy fighting and shelling near the city and airport in Donetsk."

Psaki said Washington was "concerned by the Russian government's unwillingness to tell the truth, even as its soldiers are found 30 miles [50 kilometers] inside Ukraine" -- adding that "Russia is sending its young men into Ukraine but are not telling them where they are going or telling their parents what they are doing."

She also noted "reports of wounded Russian soldiers in a St. Petersburg hospital, and that other Russian soldiers are returning home to Russia for burial."


"These are not steps that certainly you take when you are operating in a transparent manner," she concluded.

Fighting On Southern Front

Ukrainian security spokesman Andriy Lysenko announced on August 27 that reinforcements were being sent to the town of Novoazovsk, on the Sea of Azov about 10 kilometers from the Russian border, after the local mayor said pro-Russian fighters entered the town with support from dozens of armored vehicles.

Reports from correspondents in the area on August 27, as well as messages on social media by pro-government Ukrainian fighters, said government forces had abandoned all of their checkpoints on the main road linking the separatist-held city of Donetsk to Novoazovsk.

The developments come two days after  Lysenko claimed Russian tanks invaded southeastern Ukraine disguised as pro-Russian separatist fighters.

Lysenko said Russian artillery was continuing to support the battle on August 27 by firing across the border from Russian territory.

He also said a Russian "tactical battalion" -- a battlefield command-and-control unit -- was positioned on August 27 near Novoazovsk at the Ukrainian village of Pobeda.

Moscow denies sending troops into Ukraine, claiming Russian paratroopers captured by Ukrainian forces in recent days had "inadvertently" crossed the border.

Poroshenko: Minsk Talks 'Very Effective'

The latest allegations of Russian troop activity within Ukraine come a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin told Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk that Moscow will "do everything to support" a peace process in Ukraine "if it starts."

Poroshenko promised to draft a new cease-fire plan after his face-to-face talks with Putin, which came after a summit in Minsk that included EU foreign-policy chief Catherine Ashton, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazabaev, and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

Poroshenko said in Kyiv on August 27 that the talks in Minsk were "very effective."

He told a meeting of his Solidarity Party, which has been renamed the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, that he "clearly stressed there will be no bargaining over sovereignty, territorial integrity, the independence of our country, [or] the sovereign choice of the Ukrainian people and their European choice."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on August 27 that Russia was not interested in breaking up Ukraine despite respecting declarations of independence by separatists in eastern Ukraine.

But in Warsaw, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament that "no one can take seriously" Russia's claims that it is not supporting the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine.

In a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 27, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the reports of the presence of Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine "must be explained," her spokesperson said.

Merkel also emphasized Russia's "major responsibility for de-escalation and watching over its own frontiers."

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on August 27 that claims about an upsurge in Russian military activity on the border with Ukraine have "nothing to do with the reality."

Peskov added that Russia was ready to send a second humanitarian aid convoy to eastern Ukraine "even tomorrow."

An earlier convoy entered Ukrainian territory last week without Kyiv's permission, raising tensions between the West and Moscow.

Peskov also said Russia is and will be a reliable supplier of natural gas to Europe, following warnings from Kyiv that Moscow could cut off fuel to the continent this winter.

"We hope that Ukraine in turn will guarantee unhindered transit," he added.

Russian Troops In Ukraine

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) held a press conference where it presented a group of Russian soldiers captured earlier this week after they crossed the border from Russia into Ukraine.

One soldier, identified as Corporal Ivan Romantsev, said the soldiers had not realized they had crossed the border into Ukraine.

He told journalists that what is being shown on Russian television "is completely different from what is really happening."

Ukraine's military first released a video showing the captured soldiers on August 26.

Russian Defense Ministry officials admitted on August 26 that Russian soldiers had crossed into Ukrainian territory but said they had accidentally crossed an unmarked section of the border.

The Associated Press news agency quoted the Finnish Foreign Ministry as saying the United States and Russia held secret talks on the Ukraine crisis in Finland in June.

Ministry spokesman Vesa Hakkinen said the ministry helped organize the meeting but declined to give more information.

The Russian Foreign Ministry on August 27 denied reports of secret talks, saying the meeting involved only representatives from nongovernmental organizations and academic communities and did not involve official state diplomatic contacts.

According to the United Nations, more than 2,000 people have died since April in fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

What I find frustrating is that for all reports from Ukrainians that Russia has troops inside its borders there's so little tangible proof.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 02:52:39 AM
Expert says T-72 in Separatist column is variant only in use by Russian Army, never exported:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28961080


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28949582

QuoteRussian reporters 'attacked at secret soldier burials'

Russian journalists say they have been attacked while investigating reports that soldiers were secretly buried after being killed in Ukraine.

The paratroopers were buried in a village near the western city of Pskov, where they were based.

What appears to be fresh graves of the killed paratroopers were first spotted in the village by Pskovskaya Guberniya, a local newspaper.

Its journalists say they were attacked at the cemetery.

Ukrainian government officials accuse the Kremlin of helping separatists in eastern Ukraine by sending in military hardware and troops, many of them via the southern region of Rostov.

Russia denies the claims. Asked about allegations of Russian soldiers being involved in fighting in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a news conference on Tuesday that they amounted to "disinformation".

"Reporting this is really dangerous," one of the Pskov journalists told the BBC.

Later, two Moscow-based reporters visited the village to investigate the reports.

Vladimir Romensky and Ilya Vasyunin say they were approached by two men who told them that they would "never be found" unless they boarded the next train back to Moscow.

Ignoring the threats, the two visited the local cemetery where the soldiers' graves had reportedly been found.

There, their car was attacked by two men, who pelted it with stones and slashed its tyres. Independent Dozhd TV, for which Mr Romensky works, later posted footage of the attack.

Also in the car were two other journalists who claim that while attempting to visit the cemetery earlier in the day they had been forced into a van and taken to a forest.

Their abductors erased memory cards from their cameras and threatened to kill them should they make the incident public, says one of the reporters, Nina Petlyanova.

Sergei Kovalchenko from Telegraf news agency is another journalist who says he was threatened. He said his memory card was erased by plain-clothed men while visiting the cemetery.

Dozhd TV later said name plates and wreaths had been removed from the graves.

'Classified'

There has been no official confirmation of the deaths of paratroopers allegedly buried outside Pskov.

However, a military official in Voronezh, a city close to the border with eastern Ukraine, says that an elite airborne platoon commander from Pskov, Anton Korolenko, has been buried there.

He died on 19 August "while carrying out his duties", the official told local news agency RIA Voronezh, declining to give details. The platoon commander's relatives also refuse to reveal how he died, saying that this information was "classified".

A little later, Ukrainian journalist Roman Bochkala posted photographs of what he said was an armoured personnel carrier seized from the Pskov paratroopers, as well as paperwork and IDs found inside.

Last week, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Pskov amid speculation that his trip was related to the local troops' deaths in Ukraine.

Earlier, President Vladimir Putin awarded an Order of Suvorov to the Pskov-based 76th airborne division, where Anton Korolenko served, for "bravery and heroism" while performing unspecified tasks.

Reports from Russia also indicate that there has been a sudden and unexplained upsurge in the number of killed or wounded military servicemen.

On Tuesday, Russia's presidential human rights council said about 100 wounded servicemen had been airlifted to a military hospital in St Petersburg for treatment. Nine soldiers were killed at a training range in Rostov region, it said.

Military hospitals in Rostov region and southern Russia were "overflowing", a council spokeswoman said
.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Viking on August 28, 2014, 03:01:03 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on August 26, 2014, 02:01:02 PM
(https://scontent-b-ams.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/1979741_821410397899828_9083394458770276267_n.jpg?oh=d71e600f9379eb75e64cf962dcc84d1c&oe=5464FE3D)

Text says:
Fistfight at the Minsk summit
... and that's for the Malaysian Boeing

times like this I wish Klitchko had become president.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 03:54:44 AM
QuoteVienna. The European security body OSCE will hold a special meeting Thursday to discuss developments in conflict-torn Ukraine, following reports of Russian troops on the ground there, the US mission to the organisation said, AFP reported.

"Russia violations in Ukraine to top agenda at extraordinary meet of OSCE delegations at 11:00 CET (0900 GMT) today in Vienna," the US mission said in a tweet.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:13:39 AM
Separatists claim they have 3-4,000 Russian volunteers fighting among their ranks, including "Russian soldiers currently on leave."
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 28, 2014, 04:14:51 AM
This is sure a war of freak random incidents, like how yesterday the separatists captured a town in the area Russian soldiers have been getting lost while totally travelling from one point of Russia to the next.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:23:05 AM
At the very least this conduct by Russia is worrying. False flag/no flag operations in Crimea, "covert" interventions in Ukraine with all kinds of excuses (soldiers on leave, getting lost on patrol) while soldiers are brought to Russia for treatment/burial ... I wonder how they react once irrefutable proof is produced that active units of theirs are fighting in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 28, 2014, 04:27:52 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:23:05 AM
At the very least this conduct by Russia is worrying. False flag/no flag operations in Crimea, "covert" interventions in Ukraine with all kinds of excuses (soldiers on leave, getting lost on patrol) while soldiers are brought to Russia for treatment/burial ... I wonder how they react once irrefutable proof is produced that active units of theirs are fighting in Ukraine.

There have been countless proofs already. They just ignore it and play dumb. I mean, everyone knows its them. The Russian citizens supporting Putin know best. But until they do not admit it, it is not admitted. And as long as they don't admit it, Ukraine is fighting with her arms tied behind her back.

And this is not going to change because Russia has thousands of nuclear warheads.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 28, 2014, 04:30:56 AM
Is Russia going to nuke Kiev if the Ukranians fire back at Russian artillery across the border, don't think so. So how is their thousands of nuclear weapons relevant?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:31:29 AM
Meanwhile in La-La-Land:

http://rt.com/news/183268-nato-russia-border-forces/

QuoteNATO formations on Russian borders will impact Moscow's decision-making – envoy

Following NATO's aggressive military posturing in Eastern Europe, Russian envoy to the alliance warned that the "configuration and activity" of its forces will impact how Russia proceeds with its own security planning and considerations.

"Obviously, we will take into consideration the configuration and activity of the NATO forces at the Russian borders in our military planning, and will take all that is necessary to reliably provide security and to ensure safety against any threats," Russian media quoted Aleksandr Grushko citing Interfax news agency.


The statement by the Russian envoy follows on from the Cold War military alliance's intention to put up more bases in Eastern Europe and the Baltic in order to counter an 'overt' Russian threat – despite objections from a number of NATO members.

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen nonetheless said the 26-nation bloc will attempt to overcome the objections.

"We have something already called the NATO response force, whose purpose is to be able to be deployed rapidly if needed," he said in a statement to the European press. "Now it's our intention to develop what I would call a spearhead within that response force at very, very high readiness. In order to be able to provide such rapid reinforcements you also need some reception facilities in host nations. So it will involve the pre-positioning of supplies, of equipment, preparation of infrastructure, bases [and] headquarters."

READ MORE: NATO chief eyes more bases in E. Europe to confront Russia

In early August, Moscow accused the US of twisting facts in order to provide a pretext for its own accusations of Russia violating one of the key tenets of the landmark Cold-War INF treaty – the testing of a cruise missile. No specifics have been given to date – only that Russia is violating the rules. This at a time the US was building its own "target practice missiles" similar to the ones in question, as well as drones, which equally violate the INF Treaty, the 1987 document concerning intermediate-range nuclear armaments.

READ MORE: 'Lies, hypocrisy, propaganda': Russia slams US over claims of nuclear treaty violations

Reacting to NATO's fresh plans for expansion into the east, Grushko told journalists that Russia has always shown a readiness for open dialogue with the United States on a whole spectrum of issues of non-proliferation and arms control, including those of the treaty.

"Our own strong disagreement with the alliance's violations of the treaty should also be taken into consideration," he said, mentioning the West's own target-practice missiles, as well as the production of unmanned fighter aircraft, which also fall within the bounds of a land-based cruise missile category. He also highlighted the building of MK-41 systems in Poland and Romania, capable of launching mid-range missiles.

When Rasmussen was earlier asked about the prospect of NATO's permanent presence in Eastern Europe, he said "the brief answer is 'yes'... for as long as necessary."

The bloc's further militarization of the Eastern European region does not sit well with Moscow, which since the collapse of the Soviet Union had been given pledges that NATO would not expand further east.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 28, 2014, 04:39:17 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 28, 2014, 04:30:56 AM
Is Russia going to nuke Kiev if the Ukranians fire back at Russian artillery across the border, don't think so. So how is their thousands of nuclear weapons relevant?

No it means nobody will REALLY try to call them on their bullshit and risk getting involved.

And Ukraine clearly attacking Russian soil while officially the Russians are not in Ukraine is exactly what Russia wants. That would in their translation posture Ukraine as the aggressor and they would be free to move in.

Although I am more and more convinced that Putin only wants chaos in Ukraine until he can re-establish vassal state status.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:43:40 AM
Love the response from Putin's press puppet about allegations of paratrooper burials:

http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/746987

QuoteNOVO-OGARYOVO, August 27 (Itar-Tass) - The rumours of funerals of allegedly Russian paratroopers in a number of cities require further checks, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

"Certainly, this information is being checked by the agencies concerned," Peskov said in reply to a question.

"This information needs detailed verification before any conclusions can be made."

However, he said he was not sure that an inquiry was already underway. "I don't know for sure," he said.

Also he said, that claims about an upsurge in Russian military activity on the border with Ukraine have nothing to do with the reality.

He added that statements by certain sources about an alleged military build-up were not new.

"Such speculations are uttered regularly. Russia regularly refutes these claims, they have nothing to do with the reality," Peskov said.

Translation: "Yeah, perhaps we could look into that. Maybe. No promises."
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 07:10:05 AM
Russia denies everything.

http://rt.com/news/183356-russia-poroshenko-invasion-ukraine/

QuoteKiev accuses Russia of 'bringing troops' to Ukraine, no proof offered

The chorus of allegations about a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has President Poroshenko calling for an emergency meeting of the country's security and defense council, while the Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is calling for a Russian asset freeze.

"I have made a decision to cancel my working visit to the Republic of Turkey due to sharp aggravation of the situation in Donetsk region, particularly in Amvrosiivka and Starobeshevo, as Russian troops were brought into Ukraine," Petro Poroshenko said in a statement on his website.

The Russian representative to the OSCE Andrey Kelin has given a firm response to the allegations, saying that "We have said that no Russian involvement has been spotted, there are no soldiers or equipment."

"Accusations relating to convoys of armored personnel carriers have been heard during the past week and the week before that," he said. "All of them were proven false back then, and is being proven false again now."

"There is no sense in these accusations," he said.

Yet, Ukraine is going to call for a meeting of the UN Security Council, said Poroshenko.

"The world must provide assessment of sharp aggravation of the situation in Ukraine," he added.

Poroshenko added that on Thursday there will be a meeting of Security and Defense Council to elaborate the plan for further action.

"The President must stay in Kyiv today," he said.

As with previous allegations of smuggled troops, equipment and other underhand tactics, no evidence has been offered.

Given the confusion arising out of the recent capture of alleged Russian paratroopers and the subsequent videos with interviews released by the Ukrainians, the government is going to the US, EU and the G7 to ask for a freeze on Russian assets.

Meanwhile, the OSCE has announced that it's calling an emergency meeting in Vienna – for the second time in August – giving no further details.

Yet when the head of its Ukraine mission, Paul Picard, was asked if the monitoring team saw any evidence of Russia crossing the border with troops and tanks, the answer was "no." He told journalists of round-the-clock surveillance by a team of 16 people. The team said "we are hearing shooting, but it's difficult to tell just how far."

This didn't stop the Ukrainian government from alleging that the border town of Novoazovsky in the south-east has fallen under Russian control – a mix of troops and members of the eastern-Ukrainian uprising.

"We only know that the mayor of Novoazovsk said that after 10 rounds of artillery were heard, the Ukrainian soldiers retreated from the city, and the self-defense forces entered," Kelin said.

He added that "the Ukrainian ambassador has offered no claims to counter this information."
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 28, 2014, 07:51:52 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:31:29 AM
Meanwhile in La-La-Land:

What exactly is it that you want NATO to do, as this is not necessarily a NATO issue?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 28, 2014, 07:56:41 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 28, 2014, 07:51:52 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:31:29 AM
Meanwhile in La-La-Land:

What exactly is it that you want NATO to do, as this is not necessarily a NATO issue?

Bomb the fuck out of them.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 07:57:31 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 28, 2014, 07:51:52 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 04:31:29 AM
Meanwhile in La-La-Land:

What exactly is it that you want NATO to do, as this is not necessarily a NATO issue?

Did I say that I want NATO to do anything? La-La-Land referred to the alternate reality that is Russian state media.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 28, 2014, 08:33:18 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOu7he3SlFc
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Ed Anger on August 28, 2014, 08:43:36 AM
Thanks to all this Slavic bullshit, I had to change all my bank passwords.

I ain't waiting for the banks to tell me to change them.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 28, 2014, 08:49:17 AM
The way I see it, Russians can pull this de-facto but undeclared war bullshit indefinitely, and they know it.  It can only become an official war if Ukraine declares war, because Russians won't, and what in the world would Ukraine win by doing that?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 28, 2014, 09:17:02 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 28, 2014, 08:49:17 AM
The way I see it, Russians can pull this de-facto but undeclared war bullshit indefinitely, and they know it.  It can only become an official war if Ukraine declares war, because Russians won't, and what in the world would Ukraine win by doing that?

Yep.  The only hope is that it becomes such a drain for the Russians that it becomes too costly to continue. 
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 09:22:40 AM
They're somewhat gimped, though, because this way they won't be able to use air assets without being too obvious.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malthus on August 28, 2014, 09:25:18 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 28, 2014, 09:22:40 AM
They're somewhat gimped, though, because this way they won't be able to use air assets without being too obvious.

Sure they could. Just say that the seperatists bought those assets at the local hardware store.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 28, 2014, 09:36:06 AM
Or that it was the Ukrainian airforce. They are already doing it with the Malaysian flight.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 28, 2014, 09:41:25 AM
NATO is establishing bases in Eastern Europe in response. :)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/nato-east-european-bases-counter-russian-threat
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 28, 2014, 09:44:47 AM
Good. I expect they will leave Hungary out though, as the government is in the pockets of Putin.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 28, 2014, 10:33:55 AM
the NATO commander guy has cancelled his press event for today, maybe indication that some shit is really going down and NATO members are discussing what to do?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Malicious Intent on August 28, 2014, 11:04:32 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 28, 2014, 10:33:55 AM
the NATO commander guy has cancelled his press event for today, maybe indication that some shit is really going down and NATO members are discussing what to do?

Probably due to the NATO emergency meeting tomorrow.
According to BBC, there will also be a meeting of the UN security council today.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 28, 2014, 11:11:00 AM
Looks like Russia is on the verge of calling the whole charade off.  Damn.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 28, 2014, 11:12:58 AM
Quote from: Malicious Intent on August 28, 2014, 11:04:32 AM
According to BBC, there will also be a meeting of the UN security council today.

Speaking of charades...
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 28, 2014, 11:24:29 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/nato-satellite-photo-evidence-russia-lying-about-ukraine-2014-8
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 28, 2014, 11:55:44 AM
Quote from: derspiess on August 28, 2014, 11:24:29 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/nato-satellite-photo-evidence-russia-lying-about-ukraine-2014-8

That proves nothing. Probably bought from Crazy Dmitri's Military Surplus in Donezk, corner of Lenin Avenue and Stalingrad Boulevard.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: celedhring on August 28, 2014, 12:09:31 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 28, 2014, 11:24:29 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/nato-satellite-photo-evidence-russia-lying-about-ukraine-2014-8

I just love how the fact these soldiers are supposedly "on vacation" is passed down as an acceptable excuse. No developed military force in the world allows its soldiers to go all merc when on leave, for Christ's sake.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 28, 2014, 12:13:10 PM
I dunno, ours seemed to let Siegy do his religious war mercenary thing on the weekends with no problem.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 28, 2014, 02:45:17 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 28, 2014, 09:41:25 AM
NATO is establishing bases in Eastern Europe in response. :)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/nato-east-european-bases-counter-russian-threat

Finally.  :showoff:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 28, 2014, 02:50:22 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 28, 2014, 08:49:17 AM
The way I see it, Russians can pull this de-facto but undeclared war bullshit indefinitely, and they know it.  It can only become an official war if Ukraine declares war, because Russians won't, and what in the world would Ukraine win by doing that?

That's why the West should do the same, and funnel money and arms into Ukraine.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tonitrus on August 28, 2014, 03:00:18 PM
I, for one, support expanding U.S. opportunities in eastern Europe so as to increase the opportunities for U.S. servicemen to meet HOTT foreign babes support our NATO allies more effectively.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 28, 2014, 05:58:59 PM
I've read reports of Ukrainian forces falling back on Mariupol.  That's a fairly large town and I don't think a 1,000 Russian soldiers could take it.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Ed Anger on August 28, 2014, 06:00:24 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 28, 2014, 05:58:59 PM
I've read reports of Ukrainian forces falling back on Mariupol.  That's a fairly large town and I don't think a 1,000 Russian soldiers could take it.

They failed their morale roll.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 28, 2014, 06:02:31 PM
The only thing the Ukrainians are capable of falling back on is the otttoman in Rob and Laura's living room.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Jacob on August 28, 2014, 07:08:09 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 28, 2014, 06:02:31 PM
The only thing the Ukrainians are capable of falling back on is the otttoman in Rob and Laura's living room.

I don't think the Turks are getting into this.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 28, 2014, 08:19:54 PM
Well I thought it was a clever joke.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 28, 2014, 08:22:43 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FaxMy0g9z9khZC%2Fgiphy.gif&hash=c71321b18e1ec8214f88cbb0001f657cfd4a5e48)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 28, 2014, 08:26:20 PM
Well the one thing that every one agrees on is that Obama looked terrible in that suit.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 28, 2014, 08:46:07 PM
Suit was OK.  But you can't wear it with a power tie, need something floral.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tonitrus on August 28, 2014, 09:22:31 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 28, 2014, 08:22:43 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FaxMy0g9z9khZC%2Fgiphy.gif&hash=c71321b18e1ec8214f88cbb0001f657cfd4a5e48)

Should have used this one...

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstream1.gifsoup.com%2Fview3%2F4745575%2Fsimpsons-lenin-o.gif&hash=929562c8a42c66a48a6dceb9c297d247a1061583)
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 29, 2014, 12:35:06 AM
Well, I didn't think I'd say that, but I'd prefer if McCain was the POTUS right now.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 29, 2014, 03:48:54 AM
BTW will that German ex-chancellor Schroeder (sp ?) be finally executed for treason now? I remember reading how he worked hard to put the German industry on Russian gas, and then proceeded to have a nice job at Gazprom.

I remember in 2009ish when the current Putin-cock sucking Hungarian government was in opposition and ferociously attacking the government for sucking Putin's cock, Schroeder was sent to Hungary to campaign for the Prime Minister, that was fishy as hell as well.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Berkut on August 29, 2014, 08:44:30 AM
Kind of amazing the lengths the Western leadership will go to to pretend that what is happening simply isn't happening.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 29, 2014, 09:53:34 AM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-death-toll-tops-2500-as-un-report-finds-civilians-targeted-by-government-and-rebel-forces-9699442.html

Report from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Basically, both sides violate human rights, especially volunteer units, but the separatists are a bit worse.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: derspiess on August 29, 2014, 10:39:38 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 29, 2014, 09:53:34 AM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-death-toll-tops-2500-as-un-report-finds-civilians-targeted-by-government-and-rebel-forces-9699442.html

Report from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Basically, both sides violate human rights, especially volunteer units, but the separatists are a bit worse.

VICTOLY
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on August 29, 2014, 10:59:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 29, 2014, 03:48:54 AM
BTW will that German ex-chancellor Schroeder (sp ?) be finally executed for treason now? I remember reading how he worked hard to put the German industry on Russian gas, and then proceeded to have a nice job at Gazprom.

I remember in 2009ish when the current Putin-cock sucking Hungarian government was in opposition and ferociously attacking the government for sucking Putin's cock, Schroeder was sent to Hungary to campaign for the Prime Minister, that was fishy as hell as well.
My guess is no:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/land-for-gas-secret-german-deal-could-end-ukraine-crisis-9638764.html

As it is we should toughen sanctions. Apparently Cameron wants the EU to block Russia from SWIFT payments which seems like a decent idea:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-29/u-k-wants-eu-to-block-russia-from-swift-banking-network.html
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Queequeg on August 29, 2014, 11:16:01 AM

http://www.the-american-interest.com/shevtsova/2014/08/28/putin-ends-the-interregnum/

QuotePutin Ends the Interregnum
Vladimir Putin's increasingly reckless interventions in Ukraine should force the West to reevaluate everything it thought it knew about the collapse of the Soviet Union and the past two decades of Western policy on Russia.

When the Gaza War and the threat from ISIS pulled global attention away from Ukraine, you could almost hear the sighs of relief emanating from the Western capitals: Finally, something to distract us from this Eurasian conundrum! This isn't to say that Western leaders don't understand that the war in Ukraine has implications for both the international order and the West's own internal workings. By now they appreciate the stakes (or at least they ought to); they just haven't been able to come up with an answer.

Meanwhile, Russia itself faces a conundrum of its own. By attempting to shift Russia backward to an older civilizational model, Putin has already inflicted a deep strategic defeat on his country. His efforts to turn Russia back to the "Besieged Fortress" model will only rob Russia of its chance to become a modern society. Moreover, Putin has also unleashed forces he can't hope to contain, thus accelerating the agonizing decay of his own regime. Nevertheless, though he has lost the battle with history, Putin has been moving from one tactical victory to the next by forcing the West to constantly react and try to accommodate his reckless behavior.

Russia's recent "humanitarian invasion" of nearly 200 trucks—which crossed the border and then returned, the Ukrainian government alleges, with stolen factory equipment—is only one of the more recent Kremlin experiments aimed at testing both the global rules of the game and Western leaders' readiness to confront Russia. This alleged mass theft, in particular, took place just before Ukraine's Independence day, on the eve of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Kiev and before the meeting between Putin and Poroshenko. It was an intentional slap in the face, meant to bring across a simple message: "Screw you! We don't care what you say!"

The Kremlin has been intentionally escalating tensions in order to ready us for Putin's attempt to assume the role of Peacemaker—albeit on his terms. Peacemaking, for the Russian leader, is merely a means to another goal: forcing the West to accept the Kremlin's right to change the rules of the game whenever it suits its interests. Indeed this is precisely what he demonstrated at the recent meeting in Minsk between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine, where Putin stubbornly refused to admit to the Russian military's involvement in the war in Ukraine.

What this means is that there are no concessions on the part of the West and Ukraine that can satisfy the other side. This is true not because of bellicosity or incompetence of the Russian leader; he is quite rational and competent. Rather, he understands all too well the logic of personalized power in Russia—that, at this late stage of regime decay, it requires him to keep Russia in a state of war with the outside world. The war with Ukraine has thus become an existential problem for the current Russian political regime. It can't afford a defeat. Yesterday Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko claimed—and NATO satellite imagery appears to confirm—that Russian troops have openly invaded the Ukrainian territory, proving that the Kremlin is no longer interested in forestalling an escalation. Hell is unfolding...


Several years ago the famous Polish political philosopher and sociologist Zygmunt Baumanreintroduced into our political lexicon the term "interregnum" (a word onceused by the Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci to describe the early 1930s).The term means "a time without a trajectory," or "a time outside of time,"when the old is dying and the new has not yet been born or is toofaint to notice. It is a treacherous time to interpret: Is it just beforedawn, or just after dusk? "Interregnum" is also an apt description for the times in which the world found itself during the first decades of the 21st century: a time of ideological fuzziness, political ambivalence, and normative relativism.

Having flipped the global chessboard with his annexation of the Crimea and an undeclared war against Ukraine, Putin effectively ended the most recent period of interregnum and inaugurated a new era in global politics. However, no one yet knows what this era will bring. The global community is still reeling in shock, when it isn't trying to pretend that nothing extraordinary has in fact occurred. This denial of the fact that the Kremlin has dealt a blow to conventional ideas, stable geopolitical constructs, and (supposedly) successful policies, proceeds from the natural instinct for self-preservation. It is also quite natural that the political forces that have grown accustomed to the status quo will try to look to the past for answers to new challenges—this is precisely what those who were unprepared for a challenge always do. It was easy enough to predict that many politicians and political analysts would explain what Putin has done to the global order by using Cold War analogies. Drawing these historical parallels is potentially useful in only one respect: if they help us to see what is truly new about the current situation, and the scale of the risks involved.

The Cold War of the past century was not merely a competition of two global systems; it was also a clash of two ideologies that sought world domination. Russia, having entered a stage of decline, no longer possesses a global ideology and cannot play a role in counterbalancing the West. Nevertheless, the new containment policy initiated by the Kremlin should concern the West, since in one important respect these times differ from those of the Cold War. Back then, the opposing sides attempted to follow the rules of the game (the Cuban Missile Crisis was the sole exception that highlighted the need to play by the rules). The current confrontation with the West instigated by Putin's Russia, however, is characterized by a new set of circumstances:

Russia and the West (primarily Europe) are economically interconnected.
There is now a massive pro-Kremlin lobbying operation within Western society. This operation engages right- and left-wing forces, as well as business elites and former politicians, in serving the Kremlin's interests.
Unlike the Soviet Kremlin, Putin's Kremlin is not only prepared to violate the international rules of the game; it also demands that the world recognize its right to interpret them.
Influential forces within Western society aren't ready to acknowledge the failures of Western policy on Russia. These "accommodators," attempting to act within the past framework of engaging Russia, view its current belligerence as a temporary phenomenon caused by local factors.
Thus, the Western proponents of the two opposing courses on Russia are quite confused now. After all, the Kremlin seeks to contain the West even as it maintains an active presence there, which prevents the West from either successfully containing or engaging Russia. Аs forthe dual-track approach—that is, the combination of both containment and engagement—the West has never had success with this. The crisis of these past foreign policy models has become obvious in the case of Ukraine, where the West still struggles to find a solution that would end the Kremlin's undeclared war. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has managed to force the West to accept the aggressor in this conflict as a peacemaker and mediator. Not only that, but it is also now trying to force the West to agree to a new status quo, without offering its own pledge to respect it.

In other words, we face a new reality in which neither Cold War schemes nor post-Cold War settlement approaches appear to work. This means that we will have to revisit a number of traditional views, including our views on the collapse of the Soviet Union—which, as we now should understand, merely served to sustain the Russian Matrix of personalized power at the cost of dismantling the old state. The same understanding applies to Yeltsin's role: He was in fact an architect of anti-Communist authoritarianism, creating the constitutional grounds for Putin's regime. We will have to take a fresh look at the policies the West has been advancing over the past twenty years, ranging from the European Union's roadmaps for Russia's inclusion in Europe to the U.S. "reset" and the EU's "Partnership for Modernization." We will need to ask ourselves to what extent Western policies were actually means of including Russia in Western normative space, and to what extent they merely facilitated the revival of the Russian personalized power system. Having cast aside imitations of partnership and democratization in Russia, Putin seriously damaged the reputation of Western intellectual and political communities. Just think how many analytical publications, speeches, and dissertations have now been rendered superfluous, if not just plain wrong! How many political decisions and constructs have been exposed as futile, or even deleterious to the liberal democracies! Even a short list of misguided political actions, op-eds, and academic research would offer a stunning example of a collective failure to analyze, predict, and react to the obvious.

Meanwhile, Russia's war against Ukraine could have consequences reaching even further than those of the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.Russia's war against Ukraine could have consequences reaching even further than those of the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet collapse was unexpectedly peaceful (again despite numerous predictions to the contrary). The Soviet Union just cracked and crumbled like a clay pot. This painless demise to a large extent resulted from the fact that the old and frail Soviet elite was unable to struggle for survival, and a significant number of Russians wanted change and looked up to the West. The situation is drastically different today: the Russian elite will fight tooth and nail to survive, using every means at its disposal—including, we now see, external aggression, blackmail, and the threat of undeclared war. Besides, the Russians of today, zombified by television war propaganda, fear change and view the West suspiciously. The 1991 Soviet collapse spawned a democratic euphoria and hopes for the ultimate victory of liberal democracy. Today the world finds itself in the midst of the authoritarian surge. In its final days, the Soviet Union could barely attract worldwide, let alone Western, support; Putin's Kremlin, meanwhile, has managed to find supporters in the West all across the political spectrum—many of whom aren't always aware of whose tune they're dancing to. Today's Russia is an advance combat unit of the new global authoritarianism, with China acting as its informal leader and waiting in the wings to seize its own opportunities. Indeed, by destabilizing the Western world and exposing its weaknesses, Putin is effectively doing Beijing's dirty work.

Putin's Kremlin challenged the West at the same time that the liberal community was losing its mission and normative dimension. This is essentially a civilizational rather than a geopolitical challenge: Apart from testing the liberal democracies' ability to defend the global order, it is testing their ability to reintroduce the normative dimension to their foreign policies. That is exactly what Ukrainian crisis is about: Here Putin is trying to explore how strong the West's positions are. The Kremlin isn't fighting for the rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine, or for greater autonomy for the east. These issues are ultimately of little significance to the Kremlin. Instead, what we have in Ukraine is a battle waged by a declining but ever more desperately aggressive authoritarianism against a hostile civilization. And today's Russian elite will not leave the battlefield voluntarily, as the impotent Soviet leaders once did. After the Kremlin turned Ukraine into an internal political factor, and turned containment of the West in Ukraine into a tool for mobilizing Russians around their leader, it cut off its avenues for retreat. Retreat would lead to a loss of power and control over the country, which under current Kremlin conditions, would be tantamount to suicide (and not just the political variety). Putin's retreat would spell defeat for global authoritarianism. Therefore, we can expect that Beijing will lend Moscow a helping hand where possible. (Beijing will also force Moscow to pay for this help—the recent Russia-China gas contract, which exclusively caters to Chinese interests, is a clear illustration of what's to come).

To be sure, it's possible to reach the same diagnosis I have here and nevertheless draw precisely the opposite conclusions: "We should accommodate Russia. Ukraine is a failed state no matter what we do. Let the Russians have this twilight zone." So say those who believe that it is still possible to fall back to the familiar "Let's Pretend!" game of the past. Even those who understand that the world now faces a much more formidable challenge calling for new and far reaching solutions still haven't fully grasped the meaning of the new reality unfolding before our eyes.

Ironically, the 1991 Soviet collapse did not guarantee the gradual rise of liberal civilization. We are witnessing its crisis twenty years later. Perhaps, the West needs rivals like the former Soviet Union to sustain itself and remain true to form. The West needs to return to its mission and core values in order to respond to Putin's Russia, but doing so calls for taking stock of the mistakes and dashed hopes of the past. It requires an overhaul of long-standing and ostensibly immutable institutions and principles, including: the European security system (particularly as it pertains to energy security); issues involving democratic transitions, war and peace, and global government and responsibility; and the role of the normative dimension in foreign policy.

What a mess Putin has gotten us all into! But let's also give him his due: He has paved the way for the emergence of new trends—or at least he's called the existing ones into serious question. He has also facilitated the formation of Ukrainian national identity, ensuring that the country will never again become a mere extension of Russia. He has thus undermined his own dream—that of creating the Eurasian Union. He has precipitated a crisis in his own country, making its future path completely unpredictable. And finally, he has reminded NATO of its mission and prompted the liberal democracies to reflect on their own principles.

Now, it is entirely up to the West. The liberal democracies may choose to return to their foundations. If not, the accommodators—those who hope for a return to the old "Let's pretend!" game—will win. If they do, this will give a green light to the Authoritarian Internationale, signaling that the West is weak and can be trampled underfoot.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Syt on August 29, 2014, 11:31:18 AM
Indoctrination of the Putinjugend.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/tmt/506145.html

QuoteDon't Mess With Nuclear Russia, Putin Warns at Youth Camp

LAKE SELIGER, Russia — President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Russia's armed forces, backed by its nuclear arsenal, were ready to meet any aggression, declaring at a pro-Kremlin youth camp that foreign states should understand: "It's best not to mess with us."

Putin told the assembly, on the banks of a lake near Moscow, the Russian takeover of Crimea in March was essential to save a largely Russian-speaking population from Ukrainian government violence. He said continued fighting in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists launched an uprising in April, was the result of a refusal by Kiev to negotiate.

Ukraine and Western governments accuse Russia of sending troops and armor to back the separatists in a conflict that has already killed over 2,000 people. Russia denies the charge.

"Russia is far from being involved in any large-scale conflicts," he said at the camp on the banks of Lake Seliger. "We don't want that and don't plan on it. But naturally, we should always be ready to repel any aggression toward Russia.

"Russia's partners ... should understand it's best not to mess with us," said Putin, dressed casually in a grey sweater and light blue jeans.

"Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers."

Putin spoke easily with the students, many of whom looked to be asking scripted questions about demography and history. Other times he accepted gifts or, smilingly, played down their praise.

When a student said that she had not heard a single negative comment about Putin's presidency from camp speakers, he responded with a grin that "objectivity" was important.

His tone darkened when speaking about Ukraine, blaming the United States and the European Union for the "unconstitutional" removal of Kiev's former Moscow-backed president Viktor Yanukovych and replacement with a pro-European government.

He said eastern Ukraine did not agree with Yanukovych's removal and was now subjected to "crude military force" from government planes, tanks and artillery.

"If those are contemporary European values, then I'm simply disappointed in the highest degree," he said, comparing Ukraine's military operations in the east of the country with the Nazi siege of Leningrad in World War Two.

"Small villages and large cities surrounded by the Ukrainian army which is directly hitting residential areas with the aim of destroying the infrastructure ... It sadly reminds me of the events of the Second World War, when German fascist ... occupiers surrounded our cities."

From Telegraph:

QuoteMr Putin also called the crisis a "tragedy" and said: "People who have their own views on history and the history of our country may argue with me, but it seems to me that the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are practically one people".
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: DGuller on August 29, 2014, 05:36:05 PM
Ukraine brings back conscription.  Looks like we're set for the first major war in Europe since 1945.  :(
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 29, 2014, 05:43:20 PM
Nothing brings the gravitas of one's nuclear arsenal like a youth camp photo-op.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Viking on August 29, 2014, 07:12:46 PM
Norwegian Army (or what's left of it) deploys to Latvia.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2014, 07:19:23 PM
Quote from: Viking on August 29, 2014, 07:12:46 PM
Norwegian Army (or what's left of it) deploys to Latvia.

Did you take a new card?
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Viking on August 29, 2014, 07:24:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2014, 07:19:23 PM
Quote from: Viking on August 29, 2014, 07:12:46 PM
Norwegian Army (or what's left of it) deploys to Latvia.

Did you take a new card?

Yes, we drew a mandatory event.

"The Gaza War"

"Your populace is distracted by Gaza War, discard one card, may not ally with Israel next turn."
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 29, 2014, 07:43:56 PM
Supposedly reasonable Russian weekly Ekspert published this. Left line is soviet era influence border, right side is current line, orange is what they think Putin is (and should) aim for.

EDIT: screw this ipad. Here is the Hungarian article with the map:
http://index.hu/kulfold/2014/08/29/itt_vannak_oroszorszag_uj_hatarai/

I think the world is seriously not realising the level of nationalistic aggression being built in Russian public opinion
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 29, 2014, 07:46:39 PM
I know it's terrible to say, but the dumbass Russian in the Donbas shooting down that airliner was luckiest break we've had.  I think it woke everyone up.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 29, 2014, 07:56:57 PM
What scares me most is that if the reputation of that Russian paper is legit, then currently in Russia making at the very least puppet states out of the NATO member Baltic States isthe part of mainstream political discussions.
Which is crazy.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: alfred russel on August 29, 2014, 08:03:50 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 29, 2014, 07:56:57 PM
What scares me most is that if the reputation of that Russian paper is legit, then currently in Russia making at the very least puppet states out of the NATO member Baltic States isthe part of mainstream political discussions.
Which is crazy.

You should move back to Hungary. When the balloon goes up, NATO won't nuke Hungary because it is a member, and the Russians won't nuke it because the Hungarians are in their pocket. While the rest of us are vaporized, you will live on in peace (for two weeks or so, until you die from radiation poisoning).
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Ed Anger on August 29, 2014, 08:06:01 PM
Beets will save them.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: sbr on August 29, 2014, 08:10:22 PM
And the beet goes on ...
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tonitrus on August 29, 2014, 08:25:06 PM
Now you're just beeting around the bush.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2014, 08:31:38 PM
Beet me to it.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 29, 2014, 08:33:15 PM
We really need to find a couple other Hungarian themes to alternate the puns.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Ed Anger on August 29, 2014, 09:06:07 PM
I noticed in the videos, the Slavs like to jump into the middle of the street, fire a MG wildly, then duck behind a wall. Just like Dune coons.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 30, 2014, 01:33:47 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 29, 2014, 07:46:39 PM
I know it's terrible to say, but the dumbass Russian in the Donbas shooting down that airliner was luckiest break we've had.  I think it woke everyone up.

Really? To be honest I have not noticed any "awakening" in the West or any marked change of policy.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tonitrus on August 30, 2014, 02:35:59 AM
Indeed.  The shot down airliner has pretty much disappeared from U.S. news.

If it were a U.S. airliner, there'd be 'Murrica!-laced shit flying all over.  Or at least, Obama would be taking huge amounts of crap from militantly enraged Republicans.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 30, 2014, 02:53:12 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 30, 2014, 01:33:47 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 29, 2014, 07:46:39 PM
I know it's terrible to say, but the dumbass Russian in the Donbas shooting down that airliner was luckiest break we've had.  I think it woke everyone up.

Really? To be honest I have not noticed any "awakening" in the West or any marked change of policy.

The shooting followed a round of sanctions.  Before that most of Europe seemed content to just sit around with their collective thumbs up their asses.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 30, 2014, 03:23:25 AM
Any measures short of a full blown shooting war are going to seem namby pamby.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tonitrus on August 30, 2014, 03:31:07 AM
Well, if Russia can have off-duty volunteers supporting the rebels...
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Razgovory on August 30, 2014, 04:34:13 AM
We could send Siege, but it's not clear on which side he'd fight.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Tamas on August 30, 2014, 05:31:41 AM
I am not sure if I have shown this here or not... This guy meant it as a pretty serious song, but quickly become a classic meme in the country:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--Vaz9jW054


:lmfao:
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 30, 2014, 11:26:24 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 30, 2014, 02:53:12 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 30, 2014, 01:33:47 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 29, 2014, 07:46:39 PM
I know it's terrible to say, but the dumbass Russian in the Donbas shooting down that airliner was luckiest break we've had.  I think it woke everyone up.

Really? To be honest I have not noticed any "awakening" in the West or any marked change of policy.

The shooting followed a round of sanctions.  Before that most of Europe seemed content to just sit around with their collective thumbs up their asses.

I think you are wrong (could be about how media are reporting this in the West - this is, obviously, a much bigger topic here in Poland) - essentially, my impression is that every time there is an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, there is a new round of sanctions. From that perspective, since the shooting down of the plane was, obviously, an escalation, there was a new round of sanctions, but there were sanctions before and after that, too, and the ones connected with the plane were not particularly stronger or outstanding.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Martinus on August 30, 2014, 11:28:52 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 30, 2014, 02:35:59 AM
Indeed.  The shot down airliner has pretty much disappeared from U.S. news.

If it were a U.S. airliner, there'd be 'Murrica!-laced shit flying all over.  Or at least, Obama would be taking huge amounts of crap from militantly enraged Republicans.

Well, given that the Dutch were the chief victims and their pussy government pretty much refused to make a fuss about it (I guess the best they can do is complain about Polish immigrants, but they are too much of cowards to defend their citizens being murdered) so I think everybody else sorta thought they do not have a horse in this race.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 30, 2014, 03:23:27 PM
The unfortunate reality of it is that there were simply not enough Americans on board.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: mongers on August 30, 2014, 03:27:05 PM
So the evidence is now pretty clear that significant regular Russian forces are fighting inside the Ukraine.

Time I think to close the thread and start another, or just re-title this one ?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on August 31, 2014, 02:03:31 PM
According to media reports, two Ukrainian ships have been sunk by Russian military airplanes.

Also, an Ukrainian officer has apparently been tortured to death on youtube by separatists.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on August 31, 2014, 02:06:13 PM
Forced to watch endless unboxing videos?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Phillip V on August 31, 2014, 10:59:01 PM
Do Russians purchase and hang these pics in their homes?

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%2Fimages%2F2014%2F08%2F31%2Fworld%2Feurope%2F01UKRAINE1%2F01UKRAINE1-articleLarge.jpg&hash=5db281b3f6caaca375db012c634aba215926ba98)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 06:36:55 AM
The French actually are subhuman. Evidence no. 32511: http://www.sudouest.fr/2014/08/26/ukraine-des-francais-combattent-aux-cotes-des-pro-russes-1652081-4803.php
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 01, 2014, 06:38:06 AM
Watching a AJ report from the town/village of Starobeshve (sp?), three captured Ukrainian conscripts were interviewed, one said their unit came under intense artillery bombardment and 80% of their number were killed within the first 10 minutes; not sure that's the sort of firepower and co-ordination the rebels are capable of mustering.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 01, 2014, 06:43:32 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 06:36:55 AM
The French actually are subhuman. Evidence no. 32511: http://www.sudouest.fr/2014/08/26/ukraine-des-francais-combattent-aux-cotes-des-pro-russes-1652081-4803.php

We have two crazies fighting for them too. Communists, even.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Flejosdeltiempo.files.wordpress.com%2F2014%2F08%2Fantifascistas-espac3b1oles.jpg%3Fw%3D1840%26amp%3Bh%3D1228&hash=e8d8b6b2582bded2607dec2080258b8b294f28b2)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 07:16:33 AM
Quote from: mongers on September 01, 2014, 06:38:06 AM
Watching a AJ report from the town/village of Starobeshve (sp?), three captured Ukrainian conscripts were interviewed, one said their unit came under intense artillery bombardment and 80% of their number were killed within the first 10 minutes; not sure that's the sort of firepower and co-ordination the rebels are capable of mustering.  :hmm:

Depends on the hardware shop on their corner.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 01, 2014, 07:25:18 AM
http://rt.com/news/184236-lugansk-donetsk-kiev-talks/

QuoteAt talks in the Belarusian capital, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics have urged Kiev to acknowledge their autonomy within Ukraine, but said they wish to remain an integral part of the country.

Of course they want to stay part of Ukraine. Much easier to stir up shit that way.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Josquius on September 01, 2014, 07:35:55 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 01, 2014, 06:43:32 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 06:36:55 AM
The French actually are subhuman. Evidence no. 32511: http://www.sudouest.fr/2014/08/26/ukraine-des-francais-combattent-aux-cotes-des-pro-russes-1652081-4803.php

We have two crazies fighting for them too. Communists, even.

(http://http:deltiempo.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/antifascistas-espac3b1oles.jpg?w=1840&h=1228)
Anti-fascists....fighting FOR the Russians?
They're not doing it right.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 07:40:21 AM
Submissive homosexuals have always been fascinated by the reckless aggression of the Russian state. Nothing new here.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 07:57:04 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 07:40:21 AM
Submissive homosexuals have always been fascinated by the reckless aggression of the Russian state. Nothing new here.

Uhm, no.  :huh:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 08:03:03 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 07:57:04 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 07:40:21 AM
Submissive homosexuals have always been fascinated by the reckless aggression of the Russian state. Nothing new here.

Uhm, no.  :huh:

Everyone knows you will be all over Russian boots when they march down the streets of Moscow  :P

And if not, exceptions prove the rule :P
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 01, 2014, 10:33:03 AM
Italian paper La Republicca says that Putin in a recent call with Manuel Barroso has said that Putin could take Kiev in two weeks if he wanted to.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 01, 2014, 10:35:41 AM
Big deal.  I want to know if he can beat Monty to Caen.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Maladict on September 01, 2014, 10:36:55 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 01, 2014, 10:33:03 AM
Italian paper La Republicca says that Putin in a recent call with Manuel Barroso has said that Putin could take Kiev in two weeks if he wanted to.

Berlin by Christmas!
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on September 01, 2014, 11:02:08 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 01, 2014, 10:35:41 AM
Big deal.  I want to know if he can beat Monty to Caen.

A frozen Cossack horse turd could beat Monty to Caen.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 01, 2014, 12:00:49 PM
http://www.newsweek.com/russia-has-threatened-nuclear-attack-says-ukraine-defence-minister-267842

QuoteRussia Has Threatened Nuclear Attack, Says Ukraine Defence Minister

Kiev has received threats of nuclear retaliation from Russia through unofficial channels if it continues to fight pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Valeriy Heletey, announced on his Facebook page on Monday.'

"The Russian side has threatened on several occasions across unofficial channels that, in the case of continued resistance they are ready to use a tactical nuclear weapon against us," Heletey's statement reads.

The minister goes on to say that Russia's "hybrid war" in Ukraine is at an end, accusing the Kremlin of attempting a "full-scale invasion". Heletey called for all Ukrainian forces to "consolidate" and "begin building defences against Russia," insisting today "the operation to liberate the Eastern Ukraine against terrorism is complete".

Heletey's cryptic message comes after rapidly escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine over continuing reports of Russian military activity near the separatist-held regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, in eastern Ukraine.

Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that Russian president Vladimir Putin had said in a phone call European Commission President Jose Manual Barroso he could "take Kiev in two weeks" if he wanted to.

Last week two groups of Russian soldiers were captured by Ukrainian forces, which the Kremlin insisted had not entered Ukraine as part of a military operation.

The Kremlin has gone on record to deny any military involvement in Ukraine, insisting that all Russians fighting for Ukrainian eastern separatist forces are not stationed on military duty but are there as volunteers, despite mounting evidence that a full-scale military operation is underway.

But Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russia of "direct and undisguised aggression" shortly before the Ukrainian military said it had retreated from a strategically valuable airport near the city of Luhansk today, after coming into contact with a Russian tank battalion.

Western leaders have condemned Russian military activity in Ukraine with British Prime Minister David Cameron branding Russian troops' presence in Ukraine "unacceptable and unjustified", while Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has called on Russia to cease its "aggressive behaviour".

The Federation of American Scientists estimates Russia's total inventory of nuclear warheads at 8,000, 1,600 of which are strategically operational.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 01, 2014, 12:12:14 PM
:yeahright:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 01, 2014, 12:20:01 PM
Yeah, I don't find it very credible. Even if he were to only use weapons with low kt yield, he would be an immediate pariah.

Unless there's little fallout from his decision, proving that nukes are a valid battlefield weapon, encouraging others.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 01, 2014, 12:22:56 PM
The Russians say all sorts of bizarre things, who can tell?  They may have also told the Ukrainians that they plan to air drop millions of maggots on Kiev.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 01, 2014, 12:24:34 PM
Quote from: Tyr on September 01, 2014, 07:35:55 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 01, 2014, 06:43:32 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 06:36:55 AM
The French actually are subhuman. Evidence no. 32511: http://www.sudouest.fr/2014/08/26/ukraine-des-francais-combattent-aux-cotes-des-pro-russes-1652081-4803.php

We have two crazies fighting for them too. Communists, even.

Anti-fascists....fighting FOR the Russians?
They're not doing it right.

Well, they're hysterical "see what the West supports, do the opposite" lefties. Plus the whole "we are fighting the fascism in Kiev" Russian propaganda sort of fits with the theme.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 01, 2014, 12:25:22 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 01, 2014, 12:22:56 PM
The Russians say all sorts of bizarre things, who can tell?  They may have also told the Ukrainians that they plan to air drop millions of maggots on Kiev.

:x :x :x

Oh, maggots.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tonitrus on September 01, 2014, 12:49:38 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 01, 2014, 12:20:01 PM
Yeah, I don't find it very credible. Even if he were to only use weapons with low kt yield, he would be an immediate pariah.

Unless there's little fallout from his decision, proving that nukes are a valid battlefield weapon, encouraging others.

So that might actually get Germany to support some real sanctions? :P
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 01, 2014, 01:10:52 PM
Let's say Russia does use tactical nukes.  What exactly can we do about it?  I've said it before, and I'll say it again, I don't see how the nuclear game doesn't play into the hands of the crazier actor.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tonitrus on September 01, 2014, 01:24:34 PM
Much as I'd like to blame Germany, in realistic terms, it might be hard to.

Winter is coming up pretty soon, if Putin decided to go all EMBARGO ON - WHO RUNS BARTERTOWN? with natural gas, how fucked are the Germans?  I imagine conjuring up an alternate way, short-notice way to heat their homes won't be very simple.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 01, 2014, 01:46:31 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 01, 2014, 01:24:34 PM
Much as I'd like to blame Germany, in realistic terms, it might be hard to.

Winter is coming up pretty soon, if Putin decided to go all EMBARGO ON - WHO RUNS BARTERTOWN? with natural gas, how fucked are the Germans?  I imagine conjuring up an alternate way, short-notice way to heat their homes won't be very simple.

given that they burned all the jews in '45...   :ph34r:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 02:06:44 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 08:03:03 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 07:57:04 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 07:40:21 AM
Submissive homosexuals have always been fascinated by the reckless aggression of the Russian state. Nothing new here.

Uhm, no.  :huh:

Everyone knows you will be all over Russian boots when they march down the streets of Moscow  :P

And if not, exceptions prove the rule :P

:yeahright:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 01, 2014, 02:09:06 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 01, 2014, 01:24:34 PM
Much as I'd like to blame Germany, in realistic terms, it might be hard to.

Winter is coming up pretty soon, if Putin decided to go all EMBARGO ON - WHO RUNS BARTERTOWN? with natural gas, how fucked are the Germans?  I imagine conjuring up an alternate way, short-notice way to heat their homes won't be very simple.

Incidentally, in times like this, gotta love the Europe's Green Party. If coal is a no-no, extraction of shale gas under Europe is a no-no, drilling for oil in the North Sea is a no-no, and the nuclear power is a no-no, it's hard to see how they are not paid off by Putin (and if they are doing it for free, they are even greater idiots).
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Ed Anger on September 01, 2014, 02:09:08 PM
QuotePutin decided to go all EMBARGO ON - WHO RUNS BARTERTOWN?

I laughed at the reference.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martim Silva on September 01, 2014, 02:13:18 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 01, 2014, 01:24:34 PM
Much as I'd like to blame Germany, in realistic terms, it might be hard to.

Winter is coming up pretty soon, if Putin decided to go all EMBARGO ON - WHO RUNS BARTERTOWN? with natural gas, how fucked are the Germans?  I imagine conjuring up an alternate way, short-notice way to heat their homes won't be very simple.

Not much.

Even though Germany does import large amounts of Russian gas, its actual consumption is not that large - believe it or not, Germany has been reselling (at a discount) the gas it gets from Russia to other nations, especially to the Ukraine.

And while a Russian gas embargo will be a problem for several EU nations, it would also be a problem for Russia, as it would lose its gas revenues - Moscow has tried to solve this by selling gas to the Chinese (after years of botched negotiations, they were forced this year to accept Chinese demands of cheaper gas - East Asia traditionally pays more for it's gas), the fact remains that they's still bullding the ducts to China, and those aren't expected to be finished before 2018.

P.S. - Socialist fighters from Europe have been going to fight for Russia; Moscow has successfully been playing it's 'anti-fascist' card. And the sooner most of you get into your heads that the Kremlin is trying to present itself as the anti-fascist successor to the USSR, the better.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 01, 2014, 03:00:57 PM
Putin is really giving full throttle to his "30s' Hitler" impersonation:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/01/kazakhstan-russian-neighbour-putin-chilly-nationalist-rhetoric
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 01, 2014, 03:13:43 PM
Quote from: Martim Silva on September 01, 2014, 02:13:18 PM
P.S. - Socialist fighters from Europe have been going to fight for Russia; Moscow has successfully been playing it's 'anti-fascist' card. And the sooner most of you get into your heads that the Kremlin is trying to present itself as the anti-fascist successor to the USSR, the better.

That says much more about the stupidity of the socialist fighters than it does about the legitimacy of Russia's position.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Ideologue on September 01, 2014, 03:20:50 PM
Quote from: Martim Silva on September 01, 2014, 02:13:18 PM
P.S. - Socialist fighters from Europe have been going to fight for Russia; Moscow has successfully been playing it's 'anti-fascist' card. And the sooner most of you get into your heads that the Kremlin is trying to present itself as the anti-fascist successor to the USSR, the better.

Interesting.  Is there a pamphlet I can read?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 01, 2014, 03:53:02 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 01, 2014, 03:13:43 PM
Quote from: Martim Silva on September 01, 2014, 02:13:18 PM
P.S. - Socialist fighters from Europe have been going to fight for Russia; Moscow has successfully been playing it's 'anti-fascist' card. And the sooner most of you get into your heads that the Kremlin is trying to present itself as the anti-fascist successor to the USSR, the better.

That says much more about the stupidity of the socialist fighters than it does about the legitimacy of Russia's position.

So Putin is making himself out to be a modern Stalin?  The sooner the loonies who moan for the loss of "the Union" get it into their head that that's not a healthy comparison to make for one's self, the better.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Liep on September 01, 2014, 05:15:33 PM
Tusk is already pulling out the big guns and is calling Russia for Nazis. That'll stop 'em.
Title: Re: Breaking News: Regular Russian Army Set To Invade Eastern Ukraine.
Post by: Sheilbh on September 01, 2014, 05:17:03 PM
Quote from: Martinus on August 30, 2014, 11:26:24 AM
I think you are wrong (could be about how media are reporting this in the West - this is, obviously, a much bigger topic here in Poland) - essentially, my impression is that every time there is an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, there is a new round of sanctions. From that perspective, since the shooting down of the plane was, obviously, an escalation, there was a new round of sanctions, but there were sanctions before and after that, too, and the ones connected with the plane were not particularly stronger or outstanding.
The EU ones were significantly stronger. But they won't have an immediate effect. What would be best is if the EU could, say, get the French to cancel their Mistral sale to Russia and block Russia from SWIFT.

The UK, Nordics and Baltics have also announced plans to create a new joint expeditionary force. Admittedly it took an age for the Anglo-French one to get going so this'll take a while, but it's a good idea.

QuoteAnti-fascists....fighting FOR the Russians?
They're not doing it right.
Must be nostalgia for the USSR support in the Civil War?

QuoteIncidentally, in times like this, gotta love the Europe's Green Party. If coal is a no-no, extraction of shale gas under Europe is a no-no, drilling for oil in the North Sea is a no-no, and the nuclear power is a no-no, it's hard to see how they are not paid off by Putin (and if they are doing it for free, they are even greater idiots).
Yep <_<
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Sheilbh on September 01, 2014, 05:17:37 PM
Quote from: Liep on September 01, 2014, 05:15:33 PM
Tusk is already pulling out the big guns and is calling Russia for Nazis. That'll stop 'em.
That's rhetoric that won't travel well in most of the rest of Europe :(
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 01, 2014, 10:31:32 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 01, 2014, 01:10:52 PM
Let's say Russia does use tactical nukes.  What exactly can we do about it?  I've said it before, and I'll say it again, I don't see how the nuclear game doesn't play into the hands of the crazier actor.

It would make them a pariah, but besides that there's nothing else we can do.  Actually there are lots of things we can do, but nobody has the stomach for them.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2014, 02:39:31 AM
Russia restates that they will take further NATO expansion in Eastern Europe into account in their military planning.

One thing that the Russians don't seem to understand - yes, it's somewhat understandable that they have some political interest in what goes on in their neighboring countries and want friendly governments there.

What they don't seem to get is that you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Membership in NATO or the EU is voluntary, and something countries work on to achieve.

Bringing countries into the Russian sphere usually means pushing, bullying and threatening. I wonder why so many countries prefer looking westward, then.

The sad thing is that I'm sure that Russia thinks the West is doing the same, but being deceitful about it by hiding behind their so called Western values.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 02, 2014, 03:29:23 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 02, 2014, 02:39:31 AM
Russia restates that they will take further NATO expansion in Eastern Europe into account in their military planning.

One thing that the Russians don't seem to understand - yes, it's somewhat understandable that they have some political interest in what goes on in their neighboring countries and want friendly governments there.

What they don't seem to get is that you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Membership in NATO or the EU is voluntary, and something countries work on to achieve.

Bringing countries into the Russian sphere usually means pushing, bullying and threatening. I wonder why so many countries prefer looking westward, then.

The sad thing is that I'm sure that Russia thinks the West is doing the same, but being deceitful about it by hiding behind their so called Western values.

Well that has been Russia since Muscovy adopted the modus operandi of the Mongol hordes.

And I am seriously getting 1930s vibes. The similarities are frightening. Some countries slipping to autocracy, with the great power losing the previous global conflict being not just more and more autocratic, but more and more vocal about regaining the territories lost.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 02, 2014, 04:57:58 AM
Putin reminding Kazakhstan who's boss:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/01/kazakhstan-russian-neighbour-putin-chilly-nationalist-rhetoric

QuoteKazakhstan is latest Russian neighbour to feel Putin's chilly nationalist rhetoric

As Obama reassures Baltic states of Nato's protection, Kazakhs wonder if they will follow Ukraine, Chechnya and Georgia

Barack Obama leaves Washington on Tuesday for the small Baltic state of Estonia on Russia's north-western border to reassure the vulnerable country that it is safe within Nato from Vladimir Putin's clutches.

En route to Wales for a Nato summit that Putin, in Ukraine, has transformed into the most important such gathering since the end of the cold war, Obama will reiterate the alliance's '"all-for-one and one-for-all" defence pledges of Nato's article five commitments, seeking to assuage Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish and Romanian fears of revisionist Kremlin regional ambitions.

Putin's campaign in Ukraine, his seizure of Crimea and his invasion of eastern the country have the Baltic states and Poland in told-you-so mood. They have been clamouring for years for greater commitments from the west and voicing their suspicions of Russia. Ukraine has vindicated their angst, but generated an ambivalent response in the rest of Europe, including in the east where the Czechs, Slovaks, and Hungarians are much more inclined to give Putin the benefit of the doubt.

About one in four Estonians are ethnic Russians or native Russian-speakers, a bigger proportion than in Ukraine, where Putin justified his actions by referring to the defence of Russophones and ethnic Russians. Latvia, where about 30% are ethnic Russians, feels similarly exposed to Putin's summoning of Russian nationalism.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, secretary general of Nato, told the Guardian last week: "Obviously some of our member states are very concerned that the Russians say they reserve their right to intervene in other countries if they consider it necessary to protect the interests of Russian-speaking populations in other countries. Obviously, that creates a lot of concern among the allies."

But it is in the south, not in the north-west, that the chilly blast of Putin's rhetoric is being felt, far away from Europe and from Nato.

In little-noticed remarks last week, he called into question the legitimacy of the post-Soviet state of Kazakhstan while ordering the Kazakhs to be on their best behaviour when it came to serving Russian interests.

The remarks, to an audience of young people in Russia on Friday, sent shock waves through the central Asian republic, which also hosts a large ethnic Russian minority centred in the north on the Russian border.

Putin said there had never been a country called Kazakhstan, that the republic was purely the product of the current president, Nursultan Nazarbayev.

"I am confident that a majority of its population supports development of close ties with Russia," said Putin. "Nazarbayev is a prudent leader, even the most prudent in the post-Soviet space. He would never act against the will of his country's people."

Kazakhstan, he said, was "part of the large Russian world that is part of the global civilisation in terms of industry and advanced technologies. I am confident that that's the way things are going to be in the medium – and long-term."

Nazarbayev had "done a unique thing. He created a state in a territory that had never had a state before. The Kazakhs had no statehood."


When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, it left 25 million Russians in new countries on Russia's rim, – what Moscow calls the "near abroad". Putin, who has called the USSR's collapse the 20th century's greatest tragedy, although it was seen in most of the "captive" countries as a liberation, has played the ethnic card to stir up trouble, justified his actions in the name of the defence of Russians, and generally displayed a proprietorial attitude towards Russia's neighbours, using trade and energy as weapons to get them to toe the line.

Ukraine is his third war in the post-Soviet space. He crushed the Chechen rebellion. He invaded Georgia and still controls two chunks of it. He now controls tracts of Ukraine. Russia has long held on to the Transnistria slice of Moldova.

Nazarbayev was unimpressed by Putin's views on Kazakh statehood and threatened to loosen ties with Russia, which could provoke a forceful Kremlin reaction.

"Our independence is our dearest treasure, which our grandfathers fought for," Nazarbayev said. "First of all, we will never surrender it to someone, and secondly, we will do our best to protect it ... Kazakhstan will not be part of organisations that pose a threat to our independence."

Unlike Ukraine and Kazakhstan, the Baltic states are members of both the European Union and Nato.

Rasmussen insisted that any attack on a Baltic member state would be met not only with national forces but would be confronted by international Nato forces.

It is unlikely to come to that. But exploiting Estonia or Latvia's ethnic minorities, choking the states by cutting off energy, provocations and destabilisation attempts supported by well-orchestrated propaganda – what Nato officials call "hybrid warfare" after Putin's successful tactics in Ukraine – might leave the west labouring to respond.

Nato alone could not deal with Putin's tactics, Rasmussen admitted.

"You see a sophisticated combination of traditional warfare and disinformation campaigns. This is not only a Nato issue. When it comes to hybrid warfare, we will need more than Nato to counter this."
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 02, 2014, 05:20:13 AM
 :mad:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:01:01 AM
Sure is a good thing military spending and things like NATO are unnecessary dinosaurs that can largely be ignored.

Europe should cut defense spending some more.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Ed Anger on September 02, 2014, 07:27:09 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:01:01 AM
Sure is a good thing military spending and things like NATO are unnecessary dinosaurs that can largely be ignored.

Europe should cut defense spending some more.

This will make you feel better:

QuoteAugust 31, 2014: The recent ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria) misbehavior (mass murder and so on) in Syria and Iraq has caused a public uproar in Europe and generated demands that NATO send forces to try and stop all the killing. The German government responded on August 20th with a pledge to send weapons to the Kurds who are fighting ISIL in northern Iraq. But Germany was reluctant to send warplanes or troops. A few days later a German Defense Ministry readiness report was leaked and it made it clear why even getting weapons to the Kurds would be difficult. The report showed that only 8 percent of 109 Eurofighter (similar to the U.S. F-15), 11 percent of 67 CH-53 transport helicopters, and 10 percent of 33 NH90 helicopters were fully operational (not sidelined for upgrades, repairs or other problems.) However 38 percent of 56 C-160 twin turboprop transports were available. This made it possible to fly some weapons into northern Iraq, but not much else. Normally a combat ready military has at least half, and more normally over 70 percent of its warplanes ready to go. While this situation shocked many, those who have followed European military trends since the 1980s were not surprised.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 02, 2014, 08:06:07 AM
:bleeding:

and we wonder why Putin is so aggressive. There is no army in Europe ready to slow him down.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 08:09:23 AM
Not even remotely surprising.

The rather incredible decline in readiness and basic support among a lot of the NATO militaries has been a source of concern for over a decade now. The US has been bitching about it almost constantly.

That being said, having 10 our of over 100 of your front line combat aircraft capable of operations is, and should be, grossly embarrassing.

Even ignoring actual procurement funding, many of the NATO nations have not at all met their obligations to even keep their pathetic shells of a military operational. We saw this in the Libya conflict, were countries involved had to come to the US for simple ammunition after just a few weeks.

And people keep bleating on about how NATO should not fear Russia. The Russians might have a fraction of the economy of NATO, but they can, apparently, send some troops around and actually have them get their with ammunition, fuel, and weapons. Which is more than can be said for much of NATO.

There is no way around it - Europe *must* recognize that they fucked up and let their military degrade way too much, and there isn't a fix for it that doesn't involve them spending money. And probably more money than it would have cost to just keep it in shape to begin with.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 08:10:54 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 02, 2014, 08:06:07 AM
:bleeding:

and we wonder why Putin is so aggressive. There is no army in Europe ready to slow him down.

That is silly, there is no way Russia can know how weak most of NATO has become. We all know only the hated Americans do contemptible things like intelligence gathering.

Putin, I am sure, has no idea just how weak and incapable of meaningful response much of NATO has become...
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 08:14:08 AM
 :rolleyes: Soviet Union is dead, move on already.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DontSayBanana on September 02, 2014, 08:51:44 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 08:14:08 AM
:rolleyes: Soviet Union is dead, move on already.

Problem is, so are the European defenses.  It's like the biggest cripple fight in the world.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 02, 2014, 09:10:48 AM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on September 02, 2014, 08:51:44 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 08:14:08 AM
:rolleyes: Soviet Union is dead, move on already.

Problem is, so are the European defenses.  It's like the biggest cripple fight in the world.

Ah, so sad how poor the military machines of NATO have become. Oh how the mighty have fallen.  :(
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 02, 2014, 09:44:17 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 08:09:23 AM
There is no way around it - Europe *must* recognize that they fucked up and let their military degrade way too much, and there isn't a fix for it that doesn't involve them spending money. And probably more money than it would have cost to just keep it in shape to begin with.

Yeah, they won't.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 09:55:36 AM
Not sure I understand why NATO defense spending has been shown to be inadequate...even if NATO quadrupled defense spending, it isn't as though it would be going to war with Russia over Ukraine.

As it is, NATO defense spending is some multiple of Russia's anyway.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 02, 2014, 10:03:10 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 08:10:54 AM
Putin, I am sure, has no idea just how weak and incapable of meaningful response much of NATO has become...

The unfortunate hamstringer for NATO is its very strength:  the nuclear deterrent.  Unfortunately, having nothing of a credible conventional capability between "strong letter to follow" and "full attack conference" is that it allows for absolutely no graduated response in a crisis that leads to direct conflict.  There's no room built into the equation for time in developing a political resolution.

If the Russians try to march to Riga, our options are limited.  Which is why I said earlier in the thread, if he moves on NATO, that's the whole ballgame.  Hopefully the nuclear battlefield would be restricted to eastern Europe, but it is established doctrine that strikes on Russian soil would require in-turn retaliation.

If Putin believes that his actions would result in 1) nothing, or 2) a nuclear response, that's a high risk/high reward roll of the dice I believe he'd make.  Is Riga or Warsaw worth Paris, London or New York?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:07:57 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 09:55:36 AM
Not sure I understand why NATO defense spending has been shown to be inadequate...even if NATO quadrupled defense spending, it isn't as though it would be going to war with Russia over Ukraine.

False dilemna.

If European NATO countries had a viable military, perhaps Putin wouldn't be so confident that he could defy them.

And "going to war with Russia" is hardly the only other option.

Quote
As it is, NATO defense spending is some multiple of Russia's anyway.

And yet Russia can actually move troops around and invade their neighbors, while Germany cannot keep even 1/4th of their fighters in the air...
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 02, 2014, 10:08:59 AM
Germans never do anything in moderation.

Maybe they should shit on their planes.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:09:42 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 02, 2014, 10:03:10 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 08:10:54 AM
Putin, I am sure, has no idea just how weak and incapable of meaningful response much of NATO has become...

The unfortunate hamstringer for NATO is its very strength:  the nuclear deterrent.  Unfortunately, having nothing of a credible conventional capability between "strong letter to follow" and "full attack conference" is that it allows for absolutely no graduated response in a crisis that leads to direct conflict.  There's no room built into the equation for time in developing a political resolution.

If the Russians try to march to Riga, our options are limited.  Which is why I said earlier in the thread, if he moves on NATO, that's the whole ballgame.  Hopefully the nuclear battlefield would be restricted to eastern Europe, but it is established doctrine that strikes on Russian soil would require in-turn retaliation.

If Putin believes that his actions would result in 1) nothing, or 2) a nuclear response, that's a high risk/high reward roll of the dice I believe he'd make.  Is Riga or Warsaw worth Paris, London or New York?

Indeed.

Being weak, and being obviously weak, encourages aggressive weak actors to do stupid things. Like this.

But no worries, the real issue for nations like Germany is whether or not the US might be spying on them or not.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 02, 2014, 10:11:46 AM
NATO should find a country with no friends, and nuke it. Just to show it's a little crazy.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 10:12:45 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:07:57 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 09:55:36 AM
Not sure I understand why NATO defense spending has been shown to be inadequate...even if NATO quadrupled defense spending, it isn't as though it would be going to war with Russia over Ukraine.

False dilemna.

If European NATO countries had a viable military, perhaps Putin wouldn't be so confident that he could defy them.

And "going to war with Russia" is hardly the only other option.

Quote
As it is, NATO defense spending is some multiple of Russia's anyway.

And yet Russia can actually move troops around and invade their neighbors, while Germany cannot keep even 1/4th of their fighters in the air...

I am certain that NATO air forces are superior to what the Russians have, whatever the shortcomings of some members.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 02, 2014, 10:14:55 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 10:12:45 AM
I am certain that NATO the United States' air forces are superior to what the Russians have, whatever the shortcomings of some members.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 02, 2014, 10:16:50 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:09:42 AM
But no worries, the real issue for nations like Germany is whether or not the US might be spying on them or not.

That, and the threat 9.0 earthquakes and the resulting tsunamis pose to Germany's nuclear power industry.  Because we all know how often that happens in central Europe.

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:17:00 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 10:12:45 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:07:57 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 09:55:36 AM
Not sure I understand why NATO defense spending has been shown to be inadequate...even if NATO quadrupled defense spending, it isn't as though it would be going to war with Russia over Ukraine.

False dilemna.

If European NATO countries had a viable military, perhaps Putin wouldn't be so confident that he could defy them.

And "going to war with Russia" is hardly the only other option.

Quote
As it is, NATO defense spending is some multiple of Russia's anyway.

And yet Russia can actually move troops around and invade their neighbors, while Germany cannot keep even 1/4th of their fighters in the air...

I am certain that NATO air forces are superior to what the Russians have, whatever the shortcomings of some members.

Since NATO includes the US, that is trivially true.

But that isn't the point, unless you are just wanting to reinforce the fact that NATO, by and large, has been relying almost completely on the US for defense for some time now, and more recently (the last couple of decades) has almost completely abandoned even a pretext of keeping up their end of the bargain, even as limited as that end was...
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 02, 2014, 11:36:37 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 02, 2014, 04:57:58 AM
Putin reminding Kazakhstan who's boss:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/01/kazakhstan-russian-neighbour-putin-chilly-nationalist-rhetoric

Putin may think he's a big man by pushing around Kazakhstan.  But he knows better than to mess with Turkmenistan.  Esteemed President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov would kick Putin's ass.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 01:18:06 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:17:00 AMSince NATO includes the US, that is trivially true.

But that isn't the point, unless you are just wanting to reinforce the fact that NATO, by and large, has been relying almost completely on the US for defense for some time now, and more recently (the last couple of decades) has almost completely abandoned even a pretext of keeping up their end of the bargain, even as limited as that end was...

I know you're speaking generally and in aggregate, and that the Germans and others weigh heavily there, but I like to think that Canada, Denmark, and the UK are generally keeping up their end of the bargain (or at the very least keeping up the pretext, as you say)?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 02, 2014, 01:20:54 PM
Still, I would be surprised if NATO minus the US doesn't outspend Russia. It's more inefficient than if it was a sole country, of course. But as an European federalist that pushes my agenda :P.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: alfred russel on September 02, 2014, 01:25:39 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 02, 2014, 01:20:54 PM
It's more inefficient than if it was a sole country, of course.

It is still probably more efficient than the sole country of Russia.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 01:37:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 01:18:06 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:17:00 AMSince NATO includes the US, that is trivially true.

But that isn't the point, unless you are just wanting to reinforce the fact that NATO, by and large, has been relying almost completely on the US for defense for some time now, and more recently (the last couple of decades) has almost completely abandoned even a pretext of keeping up their end of the bargain, even as limited as that end was...

I know you're speaking generally and in aggregate, and that the Germans and others weigh heavily there, but I like to think that Canada, Denmark, and the UK are generally keeping up their end of the bargain (or at the very least keeping up the pretext, as you say)?

I'd like to think that as well.  I do remember the UK was bumming off fuel and bombs of the US during the Libyan thingy though.  Don't know about Denmark.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: PJL on September 02, 2014, 01:47:42 PM
There is no way that a Russian invasion of the Baltic states would not trigger a strong European reaction. Not because they're part of NATO, but because they're part of the EU. Any attack by them would therefore embolden the EU politicians to argue for a common defence & foreign policy, thus creating more central control over individual countries. I'm not saying it's an EU conspiracy, but it would create a convenient excuse for increased spending within member countries, without it looking like an unpopular thing to do.

I suspect the EU is at the stage like America before WW2, it is an economic great power, but it needs a outside crisis to galvanise it into a serious military power. To be honest, I'm surprised some politicians aren't already talking of this within the EU, it seems to be more of a NATO thing at the moment.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 02:00:19 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 01:37:56 PM
I'd like to think that as well.  I do remember the UK was bumming off fuel and bombs of the US during the Libyan thingy though.  Don't know about Denmark.

I'm under the impression that Denmark has contributed assets to every NATO action in the last several decades, as well as Iraq, and been involved in, actual fighting. Not as much as the US, obviously, and probably replaceable if push came to shove, but it is a country of only a little more than 5.5 million people.

From a quick search, Denmark did run out of bombs during the Libya thing, but we bummed extra ones from the Netherlands, not the US: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 02, 2014, 02:03:45 PM
Yeah, it also seems to me that Denmark, for such a small country, has been punching above their weight in some of the recent events requiring military might.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 02, 2014, 02:11:48 PM
Based on current events, there is no need for an invasion of the Baltic States. There will be just a righteous uprising by civilians against opression, and they will be weirdly well armed and supplied, and will be making a mockery of the fact that righteous EU states will be shooting at their own unhappy citizens.

Solving that will need a military action by NATO against the Russian mainland which may or may not result in nuclear holocaust but even if it ends with a deal it will give Putin the final boost to popularity and excuse to finish the move total autocracy.

By that time he will have the pipeline to China, with the population already adjusting to North Koreaficiation due to gradually (and thus with relatively little pain and shock) removed from the developed world's trade network.

There is no scenario where the West can stop Putin from accomplishing what he wants (re-establishing a quazi-empire and making sure he gets total control over it), unless they somehow make Ukraine a clear and obvious failure for him. And even then that may just help him.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 02, 2014, 02:22:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 02:00:19 PM
I'm under the impression that Denmark has contributed assets to every NATO action in the last several decades, as well as Iraq, and been involved in, actual fighting. Not as much as the US, obviously, and probably replaceable if push came to shove, but it is a country of only a little more than 5.5 million people.

From a quick search, Denmark did run out of bombs during the Libya thing, but we bummed extra ones from the Netherlands, not the US: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report

Tellingly, the only news I can find about the planes we sent to Libya are when we withdrew them.

We participate in a lot of sea-based missions though, particularly in the Horn of Africa. The Navy is in decent shape.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 03:10:37 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 02:00:19 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 01:37:56 PM
I'd like to think that as well.  I do remember the UK was bumming off fuel and bombs of the US during the Libyan thingy though.  Don't know about Denmark.

I'm under the impression that Denmark has contributed assets to every NATO action in the last several decades, as well as Iraq, and been involved in, actual fighting. Not as much as the US, obviously, and probably replaceable if push came to shove, but it is a country of only a little more than 5.5 million people.

From a quick search, Denmark did run out of bombs during the Libya thing, but we bummed extra ones from the Netherlands, not the US: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report)

Denmark is a fairly small country, nobody expects them to have a carrier group or anything.  Britain on the other hand, is expected do something like that.  Canada did have a carrier in the cold war it was a small one, so small that everyone seemed to think the Canadians were crazy to land jets on it.  Worked though.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on September 02, 2014, 03:16:32 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 03:10:37 PM
Denmark is a fairly small country, nobody expects them to have a carrier group or anything.  Britain on the other hand, is expected do something like that.  Canada did have a carrier in the cold war it was a small one, so small that everyone seemed to think the Canadians were crazy to land jets on it.  Worked though.

Yes, but apparently the Danish Air Force has more operational combat aircraft than the Luftwaffe.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 02, 2014, 03:17:20 PM
SO, does Obama have a plan yet? Cause by the time the european leaders have extracted their heads from their arses they'll find their necks annexed by Putin.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Barrister on September 02, 2014, 03:23:07 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 03:10:37 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 02:00:19 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 01:37:56 PM
I'd like to think that as well.  I do remember the UK was bumming off fuel and bombs of the US during the Libyan thingy though.  Don't know about Denmark.

I'm under the impression that Denmark has contributed assets to every NATO action in the last several decades, as well as Iraq, and been involved in, actual fighting. Not as much as the US, obviously, and probably replaceable if push came to shove, but it is a country of only a little more than 5.5 million people.

From a quick search, Denmark did run out of bombs during the Libya thing, but we bummed extra ones from the Netherlands, not the US: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110609/DEFSECT01/106090302/Danish-Planes-Libya-Running-Out-Bombs-Report)

Denmark is a fairly small country, nobody expects them to have a carrier group or anything.  Britain on the other hand, is expected do something like that.  Canada did have a carrier in the cold war it was a small one, so small that everyone seemed to think the Canadians were crazy to land jets on it.  Worked though.

HMCS Bonaventure!  :cool:

Trouble is that military development costs have increased dramatically, if not exponentially.  Back in the 506 and 60s we could develop our own fighter aircraft too.  Now unless the US wanted to build one for us there'd be no way we could build an aircraft carrier, never mind how we'd afford to pay for it.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 03:27:28 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 02, 2014, 03:17:20 PM
SO, does Obama have a plan yet? Cause by the time the european leaders have extracted their heads from their arses they'll find their necks annexed by Putin.

I doubt it.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 03:36:23 PM
It's kind of scary how completely leaderless NATO seems. There doesn't seem to be any actual idea or plan from anyone.

Obama certainly is not leading anything. Is anyone?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Barrister on September 02, 2014, 03:54:03 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 03:36:23 PM
It's kind of scary how completely leaderless NATO seems. There doesn't seem to be any actual idea or plan from anyone.

Obama certainly is not leading anything. Is anyone?

I wouldn't say there's "no actual plan".  In fact Obama and NATO seem to be handling the situation about as well as you can.

Their plan seems to be:

A - to try not to increase the tension.  Don't make it US vs Russia, so as to give Russia room to back down and save face.
B - give training and support to the new Ukrainian government and to the Ukrainian military, including some intelligence.
C - re-inforce the bright line of NATO membership
D - have a series in gradually increasing sanctions imposed on Russia.

In the end, if Putin wants to roll tanks into Kiev he can and will, and the West will not risk world War III over Ukraine and will not militarily intervene.  But even now Russia is NOT rolling tanks into Kiev, because he also knows what the consequences of that will be.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 02, 2014, 04:08:58 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 03:36:23 PM
It's kind of scary how completely leaderless NATO seems. There doesn't seem to be any actual idea or plan from anyone.

Obama certainly is not leading anything. Is anyone?

So are you saying... we don't have a strategy yet? :D
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 04:20:12 PM
I'm sure we have a secret strategy all worked out.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on September 02, 2014, 04:22:51 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 04:20:12 PM
I'm sure we have a secret strategy all worked out.

It involves Zombie Manstein.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 02, 2014, 04:26:44 PM
Obama will give Putin a backhanded compliment.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 04:45:07 PM
Those of you wondering about our strategy, what are you looking for? What are the goals that should be pursued? What are actions that would facilitate those goals?

Personally, I'm not super keen on going all-out to the mat against Russia over the Ukraine. So along those lines, I'm not really in favour of blustery rhetoric. Bright red lines are only worth something if there's muscular action ready to go behind it, and much as I loathe Putin I don't think the possible upsides of muscular action is worth the potential downsides.

I also think that if Putin wants to turn Russia into some version of a totalitarian propaganda driven state then that's what he's going to do, whatever the West does. Influencing that is pretty outside our range of actions at this point; the end to that will come, if it comes at all, as a result of internal Russian conditions.

It seems to me that the way to play this is to try to bleed Putin out rather than give him a big confrontation. So yeah, economic sanctions that hurt and proxy war in the Ukraine, escalating from soft to medium firm or even hard over time. Right now, Putin is all tough and winning and oh so macho, but how long is this going to last? What are the achievable exit strategies for Putin? It seems to me that he runs a real risk of this turning into another Afghanistan or Iraq occupation and those aren't that fun.

So yeah, I don't know enough about the particulars of every given response, and I find the mealy mouthed wishing things were different or straight up Putin appreciation out of certain quarters pretty annoying, but it seems to me that what's happening now is more or less what we should be doing - ratcheting up the consequences and laying the rhetorical groundwork for funnelling in support to the Ukraine.

What should we be doing?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 04:48:20 PM
Something!  :mad:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 02, 2014, 05:10:26 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2014, 04:48:20 PM
Something!  :mad:

Politicians need to be gesturing wildly, that's what they do.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Caliga on September 02, 2014, 05:42:42 PM
Bring Dubya back.  At least he had a strategery.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 05:49:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 04:45:07 PM
Those of you wondering about our strategy, what are you looking for? What are the goals that should be pursued? What are actions that would facilitate those goals?

Personally, I'm not super keen on going all-out to the mat against Russia over the Ukraine. So along those lines, I'm not really in favour of blustery rhetoric. Bright red lines are only worth something if there's muscular action ready to go behind it, and much as I loathe Putin I don't think the possible upsides of muscular action is worth the potential downsides.

I also think that if Putin wants to turn Russia into some version of a totalitarian propaganda driven state then that's what he's going to do, whatever the West does. Influencing that is pretty outside our range of actions at this point; the end to that will come, if it comes at all, as a result of internal Russian conditions.

It seems to me that the way to play this is to try to bleed Putin out rather than give him a big confrontation. So yeah, economic sanctions that hurt and proxy war in the Ukraine, escalating from soft to medium firm or even hard over time. Right now, Putin is all tough and winning and oh so macho, but how long is this going to last? What are the achievable exit strategies for Putin? It seems to me that he runs a real risk of this turning into another Afghanistan or Iraq occupation and those aren't that fun.

So yeah, I don't know enough about the particulars of every given response, and I find the mealy mouthed wishing things were different or straight up Putin appreciation out of certain quarters pretty annoying, but it seems to me that what's happening now is more or less what we should be doing - ratcheting up the consequences and laying the rhetorical groundwork for funnelling in support to the Ukraine.

What should we be doing?

That all sounds great, but it strikes me as slapping a "strategy" on what we are doing, not what we are doing being the result of a strategy.

Slowly, ever so painfully, excruciatingly slowly, ratcheting up sanctions? Is that really a strategy, or is it "Well, we gotta do something, and I can't think of anything else to do, and this is irrelevant enough that nobody will actually object, so...yeah, sanctions..."?

That is what it looks like to me - this doesn't look like a thought out plan for containing Putin, it feels like trivial reactions to very non-trivial actions. Let's have another meeting, and see what the Committee thinks.


I don't know what we should do - I have some ideas, of course, but I don't pretend to have the right answers. Maybe this is really a well thought out, intellectual tight and controlled response, and everything is going right to plan.

But if so, they are doing an excellent job of hiding it. Right now it feels mostly like "Stop! Or I might form a committee to discuss telling you to Stop! again. Or maybe not."
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 02, 2014, 06:39:06 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 05:49:46 PM
I don't know what we should do - I have some ideas, of course, but I don't pretend to have the right answers. Maybe this is really a well thought out, intellectual tight and controlled response, and everything is going right to plan.

What about a Western military exercise on Ukrainian soil? Oh wait, it's happening later this month.

I think you're overly harsh. There's little that the West can do that's not been done. NATO is sounding for strengthening in the East, sanctions are in place. Spain sent some defensive materiel to Ukraine this week, I'm sure other countries are doing similarly. Ultimately we want to be seen as proportionate, while showing that actions have consequences.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 06:46:27 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 04:45:07 PM
Those of you wondering about our strategy, what are you looking for? What are the goals that should be pursued? What are actions that would facilitate those goals?


This is actually about something Obama said the other day.  He stupidly stated that we don't have a strategy concerning ISIS yet.  That may very well be honest, but it's not a good thing to say publicly. A lot of us are seeing this same weakness in dealing with Putin.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 07:25:49 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 05:49:46 PMThat all sounds great, but it strikes me as slapping a "strategy" on what we are doing, not what we are doing being the result of a strategy.

How can you tell?

QuoteSlowly, ever so painfully, excruciatingly slowly, ratcheting up sanctions? Is that really a strategy, or is it "Well, we gotta do something, and I can't think of anything else to do, and this is irrelevant enough that nobody will actually object, so...yeah, sanctions..."?

I'm under the impression that the sanctions are not irrelevant at this time, and that several of the ones being discussed are not irrelevant either.

QuoteThat is what it looks like to me - this doesn't look like a thought out plan for containing Putin, it feels like trivial reactions to very non-trivial actions. Let's have another meeting, and see what the Committee thinks.

So what are some potential non-trivial actions that make sense?

QuoteI don't know what we should do - I have some ideas, of course, but I don't pretend to have the right answers. Maybe this is really a well thought out, intellectual tight and controlled response, and everything is going right to plan.

I'm curious what your ideas are, even knowing that you're not claiming they are clearly the right ones.

I don't think this is - as you put it - a really well thought out, intellectually tight and controlled response where everything is going right according to the plan. In fact, I think it's a pretty messy situation.

I do, however, think that it's probably the best course of action (or reasonable facsimile thereof) given the circumstances, though I'd like a little more teeth on the sanctions and some slightly less mealy mouthed words out of the Europeans.

QuoteBut if so, they are doing an excellent job of hiding it. Right now it feels mostly like "Stop! Or I might form a committee to discuss telling you to Stop! again. Or maybe not."

My impression is that that is a rather unfavourable description of what's going on. As I understand it, the sanctions are having an impact, leaving room for Putin to back down with some measure of face is worthwhile.

That said, I could be wrong and I'm very open to hear how and why.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 02, 2014, 07:43:39 PM
Evidence of Russian presence in Eastern Ukraine:

http://www.channel4.com/news/tensions-still-high-in-ukraine-video#c4news (http://www.channel4.com/news/tensions-still-high-in-ukraine-video#c4news)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:44:12 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 07:25:49 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 05:49:46 PMThat all sounds great, but it strikes me as slapping a "strategy" on what we are doing, not what we are doing being the result of a strategy.

How can you tell?

It is disjointed, reactionary, and there isn't any consensus among the actors on this side as to how to respond, which I would expect if the response was planned out prior to the provocation (ie, if Putin does this, we all agree to do that in response).

How can *you* tell that this is a strategy, rather than just a reaction to someone else driving events?

Quote
QuoteSlowly, ever so painfully, excruciatingly slowly, ratcheting up sanctions? Is that really a strategy, or is it "Well, we gotta do something, and I can't think of anything else to do, and this is irrelevant enough that nobody will actually object, so...yeah, sanctions..."?

I'm under the impression that the sanctions are not irrelevant at this time, and that several of the ones being discussed are not irrelevant either.

I've never once heard of an aggressive actor like Putin, throughout history, ever being deterred from what they want to do by relatively light economic sanctions.

And what is more, so far as we can tell, the sanctions have not deterred Putin one bit. He took Crimea, and didn't care what the international community thought, and the international community obliged him by doing...nothing.

Now he has invaded yet ANOTHER country, and we threaten to not sell him grapes? Pfft. I suspect that this is exactly the kind of "response" that Putin predicted and counted on.

Quote
QuoteThat is what it looks like to me - this doesn't look like a thought out plan for containing Putin, it feels like trivial reactions to very non-trivial actions. Let's have another meeting, and see what the Committee thinks.

So what are some potential non-trivial actions that make sense?

Sever econoic sanctions. Refuse to purchase gas.

Start sending arms to the Ukraine. Publicly and loudly prove to the world that we know Russians are inside the Ukraine. Call this what is is - a war of aggression against a sovereign nation.
Quote

QuoteI don't know what we should do - I have some ideas, of course, but I don't pretend to have the right answers. Maybe this is really a well thought out, intellectual tight and controlled response, and everything is going right to plan.

I'm curious what your ideas are, even knowing that you're not claiming they are clearly the right ones.

I don't think this is - as you put it - a really well thought out, intellectually tight and controlled response where everything is going right according to the plan. In fact, I think it's a pretty messy situation.

I do, however, think that it's probably the best course of action (or reasonable facsimile thereof) given the circumstances, though I'd like a little more teeth on the sanctions and some slightly less mealy mouthed words out of the Europeans.

Then we probably don't disagree all that much.

Quote
QuoteBut if so, they are doing an excellent job of hiding it. Right now it feels mostly like "Stop! Or I might form a committee to discuss telling you to Stop! again. Or maybe not."

My impression is that that is a rather unfavourable description of what's going on. As I understand it, the sanctions are having an impact, leaving room for Putin to back down with some measure of face is worthwhile.

I don't care at all about leaving Putin room to back down - I don't think he has proven time and again that he doesn't operate in that fashion. He doesn't look at a "mealy mouthed" response as "Hey, they are giving me some room to retire gracefully, I should take it..." he looks at as "Fucking pussies, I knew they wouldn't call me on it. I am going to take the rest of the Crimea as well. Or Georgia. Or Azerbaijan".

Wanting to give someone room to back down is the kind of thing that is important when you are dealing with actors that are operating under the same basic operating principles as the rest of the west operates under, where the goal of everyone, 99% of the time, is to de-escalate situations far, far, FAR short of violence.

Putin has proven that he is not that kind of actor, and treating him as if he was someone "looking for some room to back down while saving face" is going to (and has, time and again) simply backfire.

Quote

That said, I could be wrong and I'm very open to hear how and why.

I am, as always, happy to help. :P
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:46:20 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 02, 2014, 07:43:39 PM
Evidence of Russian presence in Eastern Ukraine:

http://www.channel4.com/news/tensions-still-high-in-ukraine-video#c4news (http://www.channel4.com/news/tensions-still-high-in-ukraine-video#c4news)

I can't even imagine how there could be any debate, one way or the other, over whether the Russians are there or not.

Either they are there, in which case US/NATO intelligence assets (read: satellite surveillance) certainly is aware of it, or they are not, in which case US/NATO surveillance ability know about that as well.

There is a 0% chance that we simply are not certain one way or the other. You can't march any significant number of troops from Russia into the Ukraine, and you certainly cannot ship in the amount of supplies being talked about, without the US knowing about it. Not possible.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 02, 2014, 07:52:15 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:44:12 PM
He took Crimea, and didn't care what the international community thought, and the international community obliged him by doing...nothing.

Now he has invaded yet ANOTHER country, and we threaten to not sell him grapes? Pfft. I suspect that this is exactly the kind of "response" that Putin predicted and counted on.

:huh:

It's the same country.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:57:37 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on September 02, 2014, 07:52:15 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:44:12 PM
He took Crimea, and didn't care what the international community thought, and the international community obliged him by doing...nothing.

Now he has invaded yet ANOTHER country, and we threaten to not sell him grapes? Pfft. I suspect that this is exactly the kind of "response" that Putin predicted and counted on.

:huh:

It's the same country.

Was using "another" in contrast to Georgia and Ukraine collectively.

And the response to the Crimea was "Well, it really is kind of part of Russia anyway..." so apparently it wasn't really the same country.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Maximus on September 02, 2014, 07:58:12 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:44:12 PM
I don't care at all about leaving Putin room to back down - I don't think he has proven time and again that he doesn't operate in that fashion. He doesn't look at a "mealy mouthed" response as "Hey, they are giving me some room to retire gracefully, I should take it..." he looks at as "Fucking pussies, I knew they wouldn't call me on it. I am going to take the rest of the Crimea as well. Or Georgia. Or Azerbaijan".

Wanting to give someone room to back down is the kind of thing that is important when you are dealing with actors that are operating under the same basic operating principles as the rest of the west operates under, where the goal of everyone, 99% of the time, is to de-escalate situations far, far, FAR short of violence.

Putin has proven that he is not that kind of actor, and treating him as if he was someone "looking for some room to back down while saving face" is going to (and has, time and again) simply backfire.
All we are saying is give peace for our time a chance.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 09:10:57 PM
What Russia fears is being boxed in.  That's always been their fear.  I think the strategy should be move turn members of the CIS away from Russia.  I think the threat of that may bring him to heel.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 02, 2014, 09:35:35 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 05:49:46 PM

Slowly, ever so painfully, excruciatingly slowly, ratcheting up sanctions? Is that really a strategy, or is it "Well, we gotta do something, and I can't think of anything else to do, and this is irrelevant enough that nobody will actually object, so...yeah, sanctions..."?

That is what it looks like to me - this doesn't look like a thought out plan for containing Putin, it feels like trivial reactions to very non-trivial actions. Let's have another meeting, and see what the Committee thinks.


I don't know what we should do - I have some ideas, of course, but I don't pretend to have the right answers. Maybe this is really a well thought out, intellectual tight and controlled response, and everything is going right to plan.

But if so, they are doing an excellent job of hiding it. Right now it feels mostly like "Stop! Or I might form a committee to discuss telling you to Stop! again. Or maybe not."
I was under the impression that the sanctions are materially damaging the Russian economy.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/17/russia-lending-sanctions-impact-on-economy
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 09:56:32 PM
That may be, but it isn't stopping them.  The point of sanctions isn't to punish the Russian people.  It's to dissuade the leadership from aggressive actions.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: HVC on September 02, 2014, 10:19:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 09:56:32 PM
That may be, but it isn't stopping them.  The point of sanctions isn't to punish the Russian people.  It's to dissuade the leadership from aggressive actions.
I thought the point of sanctions was to punish the people so they put pressure on their leadership? Either way Putin won't be swayed by the public and his rich buddies are nowhere near hurting.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 02, 2014, 10:22:51 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:44:12 PM
Sever econoic sanctions. Refuse to purchase gas.

That's a decision for individual European importers.  The short term economic cost would be heavy. Who would/could coordinate such a response.

I agree this would be effective and anything short of that is just playing around.  But is it realistic?

QuoteStart sending arms to the Ukraine.

Have they even requested that? Would it be useful - my impression was that Ukrainian military deficiencies have less to do with arms and more to do with the shortage of reliable and well-trained formations.  What would we send?  Isn't Ukrainian kit mostly Russian-made?  Have Ukrainian troops any experience or training using US/NATO gear?

QuotePublicly and loudly prove to the world that we know Russians are inside the Ukraine. Call this what is is - a war of aggression against a sovereign nation.

Ok, sure.  Then Putin calls the bluff and says no, this is all lies and propaganda.  Then what?

QuoteI do, however, think that it's probably the best course of action (or reasonable facsimile thereof) given the circumstances, though I'd like a little more teeth on the sanctions and some slightly less mealy mouthed words out of the Europeans.

Well yeah sure.  But "Europe" struggles mightily to achieve even a bare semblance of economic coordination, and then only in extremis.  So how realistic is it to expect a strong, unified response on foreign policy where the member states don't have consistent interests?  The NATO structure doesn't really help because it is an alliance for collective security, and Ukraine is outside.  Recall how long it took for NATO to get into gear in Yugoslavia - that was when Russia was incredibly weak, and even then it was a slow and messy process.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 02, 2014, 10:27:16 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:46:20 PM
Either they are there, in which case US/NATO intelligence assets (read: satellite surveillance) certainly is aware of it, or they are not, in which case US/NATO surveillance ability know about that as well.

But so far the US and NATO have been reluctant to go public with proofs of Russian action that would reveal sources/methods.  So even if "we" know, Putin can retain public deniability and even the Western media must hedge somewhat.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 02, 2014, 10:32:54 PM
Quote from: HVC on September 02, 2014, 10:19:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 02, 2014, 09:56:32 PM
That may be, but it isn't stopping them.  The point of sanctions isn't to punish the Russian people.  It's to dissuade the leadership from aggressive actions.
I thought the point of sanctions was to punish the people so they put pressure on their leadership? Either way Putin won't be swayed by the public and his rich buddies are nowhere near hurting.

Yeah, never underestimate Russians' capacity to swallow their own bullshit.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 03, 2014, 12:37:20 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2014, 01:18:06 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 10:17:00 AMSince NATO includes the US, that is trivially true.

But that isn't the point, unless you are just wanting to reinforce the fact that NATO, by and large, has been relying almost completely on the US for defense for some time now, and more recently (the last couple of decades) has almost completely abandoned even a pretext of keeping up their end of the bargain, even as limited as that end was...

I know you're speaking generally and in aggregate, and that the Germans and others weigh heavily there, but I like to think that Canada, Denmark, and the UK are generally keeping up their end of the bargain (or at the very least keeping up the pretext, as you say)?

You forgot Poland. :contract:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Viking on September 03, 2014, 12:44:04 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 02, 2014, 01:20:54 PM
Still, I would be surprised if NATO minus the US doesn't outspend Russia. It's more inefficient than if it was a sole country, of course. But as an European federalist that pushes my agenda :P.

Russia about 60b
France/Britain/Germany 40b
Italy 30b
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 03, 2014, 12:46:01 AM
Well, yesterday one of the Russian politicians who are on the "black list" (Speaker of the Russian Parliament I believe) was feted on a state visit in Paris. Is this reporter anywhere? Is anyone making a stink?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 03, 2014, 12:59:51 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 02, 2014, 10:22:51 PM
Well yeah sure.  But "Europe" struggles mightily to achieve even a bare semblance of economic coordination, and then only in extremis.  So how realistic is it to expect a strong, unified response on foreign policy where the member states don't have consistent interests?  The NATO structure doesn't really help because it is an alliance for collective security, and Ukraine is outside.  Recall how long it took for NATO to get into gear in Yugoslavia - that was when Russia was incredibly weak, and even then it was a slow and messy process.

Yup. To give you a bit of a different perspective, the biggest failure from the Poland's point of view is the Obama administration - we know that France and Germany will not do shit because they have strong economic ties with Russia, and the UK is likewise on the fence, but lack of any serious sanctions from the US means that nobody else will do much (Poland and the Baltics alone would not go against Russia, even if we wanted, because we are afraid of not just being ineffective - and we are already paying the biggest price for the Russian embargo on Western foodstuffs but being invaded - and I don't think anyone seriously thinks NATO would come to help us). But the US could effectively force the entire Western world's hand by adopting sweeping sanctions like it did with Iran (and as much as French and Germans like doing business with Russia, their firms cannot afford being cut off from US financial markets).

In short, at least this part of Europe would want nothing more than the USA's unilateral action - but unfortunately your Peace Prize winner is not going to do anything as rash, is he?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 03, 2014, 02:19:39 AM
If this goes through it sounds like it would instantly plunge Russia into a deep recession. Germans will probably wuss out on it though.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-plan-cut-off-russian-141728130.html

Quote
The UK Has A Plan To Cut Off Russian Businesses From The Rest Of The World
Business Insider
By Brett LoGiurato September 1, 2014 10:17 AM

The United Kingdom will push the European Union this weekend to consider the most punitive sanctions yet against Russia for its involvement in escalating the crisis in Ukraine.

According to Bloomberg, the U.K. plans to propose blocking Russia from the SWIFT banking transaction system, a move analysts say would effectively cut off Russian businesses from the rest of the world's financial system. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron will put forward the proposal during a meeting with E.U. leaders in Brussels on Saturday.

"This would be a major escalation of the sanctions. Most international payments flow through SWIFT. Banning Russian banks and companies from SWIFT would effectively cut off Russian businesses from the rest of world," said Bruce Johnston, a London-based analyst at Morgan, Lewis & Bockius.

"It would also have a major impact on European businesses who need to paid by Russians, and want to consume Russian energy."

The move would have a significant effect on Russia's banking sector, as many financial institutions across the world use the system. According to SWIFT's website, it transmitted more than 21 million financial messages per day in July. It helped process payments among more than 10,500 financial institutions and corporations across 215 different countries.

Mark Dubowitz, the executive director of the  Foundation for Defense of Democracies, compared the potential move to one leveled on Iranian institutions in 2012.

"SWIFT is the electronic bloodstream of the global financial system," he told Business Insider in an email. "Cancelling Putin's credit card could have far reaching consequences for the Russian economy as Iran discovered when scores of its financial institutions were expelled from SWIFT in 2012."

David Cameron will propose blocking Russia from the SWIFT network.

The U.S. and E.U. have imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. Most recently last month, they leveled targeted sanctions on Russia's energy, arms, and finance sectors. But so far, the sanctions have not changed the calculus of Russia or President Vladimir Putin.

This week, the conflict has sharply escalated, as Ukraine, NATO, and the West said Russia sent troops across the border to fight with pro-Russian separatist rebels in eastern regions of the country.

This week, the rebels have opened a new front  in the cities of Amvrosiivka and Starobeshevo. One  fear is that Russia is attempting to create a land link between Russia and the strategic peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed with special forces troops in March. Poroshenko said Russian t roops are  leading  a separatist counteroffensive in the east, bringing in tanks and firing artillery from inside Ukrainian territory.

President Barack Obama and European leaders have agreed on the need for new "costs" in the wake of the latest escalation, but officials in both areas are questioning the legitimacy of the strategy. In the U.S., multiple Republican lawmakers have called on Obama to provide military assistance to Ukraine, saying a political resolution to the conflict is not possible if Russia continues to pursue its goals through military means.

In Europe, geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group told Business Insider he expected there to be high-profile breaks among leaders on the sanctions strategy.

"It's hard to see the west holding off for much longer in not calling Russian forces an invasion. That leads to more 'level 3' (sector wide) sanctions on Russia, yes, but we'll now see a real fragmentation of European leaders publicly calling the policy a failure and looking to break from further coordination," Bremmer said.

"After all, many Europeans have been deeply skeptical of Russian sanctions from the beginning, and to the extent that the purpose of sanctions was to prevent an invasion. That's clearly failed."

Senior Obama administration officials declined to comment about possible new sanctions on Russia during a conference call with reporters Friday about new sanctions leveled on individuals and businesses in relation to Iran's nuclear program. An administration official did not immediately respond to a subsequent request for comment.

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 03:33:04 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29042561

QuoteBREAKING NEWS: Ukraine 'agrees truce' with Putin

Ukrainian president says he has agreed with Russia's President Putin on "permanent ceasefire" in east of country.

More to follow.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 03, 2014, 03:37:16 AM
But... but... I was told that Russia had nothing to do with the rebellion in the East, how can Putin agree to a truce in their behalf?  :hmm:

Anyway, more seriously, I hope this works.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 03:38:56 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 03, 2014, 03:37:16 AM
But... but... I was told that Russia had nothing to do with the rebellion in the East, how can Putin agree to a truce in their behalf?  :hmm:

Well, maybe the separatists will continue the good fight, nevertheless, because they find Kiev in violation of the agreement, somehow? Because maybe some Right Sector idiots can't leave it be? Which then allows Moscow to say, "See? They're the bad guys!"?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 03, 2014, 04:03:26 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 03, 2014, 03:38:56 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 03, 2014, 03:37:16 AM
But... but... I was told that Russia had nothing to do with the rebellion in the East, how can Putin agree to a truce in their behalf?  :hmm:

Well, maybe the separatists will continue the good fight, nevertheless, because they find Kiev in violation of the agreement, somehow? Because maybe some Right Sector idiots can't leave it be? Which then allows Moscow to say, "See? They're the bad guys!"?

Yeah at this point it is impossible to tell if this is genuine or just the next episode in Operation Total Confusion the Russians have been running. Putin and cronies have been saying one thing one day just to say the exact opposite a day later, then turn the tables again in a few days. It has been working great, as everyone is confused and intimidated, all the while Russian interests are being advanced via force of arms.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 04:36:37 AM
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/747831

QuotePutin, Poroshenko agree on ceasefire steps "to a large extent"

Moscow has repeatedly pointed out that Russia is not a party to Ukraine's internal conflict

   
ULAN-BATOR, September 03. /ITAR-TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko have agreed "to a large extent" on steps to be taken by the Ukrainian military and militias to achieve a ceasefire, Russian presidential press-secretary Dmitry Peskov has said.

"In a telephone conversation earlier in the day Putin and Poroshenko exchanged opinions and to a large extent agreed on steps that might contribute to an early ceasefire between the Ukrainian military and the militias in the southeast of the country," Peskov said in the wake of a statement by the Ukrainian presidential press-service "the conversation resulted in a permanent ceasefire in Donbass."

Moscow has repeatedly pointed out that Russia is not a party to Ukraine's internal conflict. This is precisely what President Putin emphasized after last week's negotiations with Poroshenko in Minsk.

"Frankly speaking, we are not in the position to discuss any ceasefire terms or likely agreements between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk. That's none of our business but Ukraine's internal affair," Putin said.  :lmfao:

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko.

"[The two leaders] continued to discuss Ukraine's military and humanitarian crisis," Peskov said.

"The heads of state exchanged their views on top priority measures for stopping the bloodshed in that country's south-east," the press secretary said. "[Putin's] view on possible ways out of this crisis situation largely coincides with that of the Ukrainian president."

Overnight to August 27, after consultations involving Customs Union, Ukraine and the EU, a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine took place in Minsk. The conversation behind closed doors lasted for almost two hours and became the first negotiations between the two leaders.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 08:53:42 AM
Separatist in Donetsk:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Forf.at%2Fstatic%2Fimages%2Fsite%2Fnews%2F20140936%2Fukraine_waffenstillstand_verwirrspiel_body01_r.4575686.jpg&hash=79edb0b532bb54cd6bcd08ebfbb4fe99b0876d18)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DontSayBanana on September 03, 2014, 09:07:52 AM
Actually, yeah, Putin would want to distance himself from imagery like that.  While it's a decently effective domestic tool to wax nostalgic about the old Soviet Union days, if an actual return were to happen, the devil would be in the details.  Coming out smelling like roses in one regime change is tricky; two would be nigh impossible.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Liep on September 03, 2014, 09:40:32 AM
White paint on red?! Outrageous.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 09:43:59 AM
Now that dude I can see being a legit ethnic Russian separatist.  He probably has prior service in the old Soviet Army & either he or one of his buddies was waxing nostalgic with that CCCP painted emblem thingie.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 03, 2014, 09:45:52 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 09:43:59 AM
Now that dude I can see being a legit ethnic Russian separatist.  He probably has prior service in the old Soviet Army & either he or one of his buddies was waxing nostalgic with that CCCP painted emblem thingie.
Yeah, he doesn't quite strike me as a Russian conscript.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 10:35:16 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia.html

QuotePutin Outlines 7-Point Plan for Ukraine Cease-Fire

KIEV, Ukraine — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia listed seven steps on Thursday that he said were necessary for a cease-fire in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Mr. Putin said he and the president of Ukraine, Petro O. Poroshenko, had a similar understanding about what was needed, and he urged Ukraine and the pro-Russian separatists in the east to reach a settlement at talks scheduled for Friday in Belarus.

The primary conditions on Mr. Putin's list are that the separatists halt all offensive operations and that Ukrainian troops move their artillery back out of range of cities and large towns in the rebel-held area.

Mr. Putin also called for Ukraine to cease airstrikes; the establishment of an international monitoring mission and humanitarian aid corridors; an "all for all" prisoner exchange; and "rebuilding brigades" to repair damaged roads, bridges, power lines and other infrastructure.
Continue reading the main story
Related Coverage

His remarks came at a news conference during a state visit to Mongolia. After confirming that he had spoken with Mr. Poroshenko, Mr. Putin offhandedly mentioned that he had "sketched out" a peace plan during his flight from Moscow. An aide then handed Mr. Putin a notebook, from which he read the plan.

Mr. Putin offered his seven-point plan a day before the leaders of the NATO alliance, including President Obama, are scheduled to meet in Newport, Wales, with the crisis in Ukraine at the top of the agenda. The alliance was expected to announce at the meeting that it would create a new rapid reaction force for defending its members in Eastern Europe, along with other measures.

Mr. Putin said he expected Ukraine and the separatists to announce an agreement by Friday. The two-day NATO summit is scheduled to conclude that day.

Earlier on Thursday there was confusion about whether Mr. Putin and Mr. Poroshenko had reached an agreement of their own. Mr. Poroshenko's office first issued and then retracted a statement saying that the two had agreed to a "lasting cease-fire." A spokesman for Mr. Poroshenko's office said the initial statement, posted on the presidential website, went too far in describing the results of a telephone call between the two leaders, and that the call had not produced a formal agreement. Following protocol, the spokesman did not give his name.

Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin's press secretary, said separately that Russia could not negotiate a cease-fire because it was not a party to the conflict, but that the opinions of the two presidents overlapped.

"Putin and Poroshenko did indeed discuss steps which could facilitate a cease-fire between the militias and the Ukrainian military," Mr. Peskov was quoted as saying by the news agency RIA Novosti. "Russia cannot physically agree on a cease-fire, as it is not a side in the conflict."

The West and Ukraine have accused Russia of providing arms and soldiers to support the separatists, an allegation that Mr. Putin has repeatedly denied.

Mr. Peskov said Mr. Putin and Mr. Poroshenko had "continued discussion regarding the military and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine."

They discussed "what should be done primarily to stop the bloodshed" in southeastern Ukraine, Mr. Peskov said, suggesting that the two leaders had found common ground.

"The presidents' viewpoints on possible ways to overcome the grave and critical situation coincide to a considerable degree," Mr. Peskov said.

Vladislav Brig, the head of the political department for the rebels' Ministry of Defense in Donetsk, said in a telephone conversation that combat operations were continuing as usual.

"Nobody is holding negotiations about a cease-fire with the representatives of the Donetsk People's Republic," Mr. Brig said. "As long as there are Ukrainian soldiers on our territory, there will be no cease-fire."

He echoed Mr. Peskov's statements in saying that Russia could not negotiate for the rebels.

"The conversation was about measures for a cease-fire," Mr. Brig said. "Mr. Putin did not agree with Mr. Poroshenko about any cease-fire because Russia is not involved in this conflict."

Mr. Brig said the rebel leadership had not met to discuss the statement by Kiev.

Miroslav Rudenko, a member of the rebel Parliament, suggested that the cease-fire might be a trick, but also suggested an openness to negotiations.

"If the Ukrainian side will hold to their promises to cease fire, then we are prepared for a political side of the settlement," he told the Russian news agency Interfax.

President Obama, on a visit to Estonia on Thursday, suggested that the real test would be whether Moscow was willing to rein in the separatists and stop its military support for them.

"If, in fact, Russia is prepared to stop financing, arming, training, in many cases joining with Russian troops' activities in Ukraine and is serious about a political settlement, that is something we all hope for," Mr. Obama said at a televised news conference in Tallinn, the Estonian capital.

"We haven't seen a lot of follow-up on so-called announced cease-fires," Mr. Obama said after meeting with President Toomas Hendrik Ilves of Estonia.

Mr. Obama's comments came as he began a day of private meetings with Baltic leaders and of public statements meant to reassure fretful allies — particularly those bordering Russia — that the United States and Europe were serious about defending them from a newly aggressive neighbor.

"There's an opportunity here — let's see if there's follow-up," Mr. Obama said. "No realistic political settlement can be achieved if effectively Russia says we are going to continue to send troops and arms and advisers."

Mr. Ilves said the Ukraine conflict and its wider impact on European security was "the question on everyone's mind."

"This is Russian aggression," Mr. Ilves said of Moscow's actions in eastern Ukraine. "Russia must admit that it is a party to the conflict and take genuine steps that will lead to a de-escalation of the conflict."

Mr. Obama's stop in Estonia came on the eve of a NATO summit meeting in Wales where members are expected to endorse a rapid-reaction force capable of deploying quickly to Eastern Europe, their strongest response yet to the situation in Ukraine. Over the weekend, Ukraine and NATO accused Russia of sending troops and armor over the border. European Union leaders then discussed a new round of sanctions against Russia, the fourth, that could be enacted within a week.

Russia has been escalating pressure on Ukraine, demanding that it grant some measure of autonomy to the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, where groups of armed militants have been demanding independence.

Until now, the administration in Kiev, the capital, has been reluctant to engage in such talks, arguing that the separatists are a Russian proxy force who do not represent the feelings of most of the people in the east.

But in recent days, the Ukrainian military has lost ground in the east. Ukraine has said the reverses were a result of the direct intervention of the Russian military. Russia denies sending men and arms across the border.

A shaky cease-fire reached in June between the government and the separatists collapsed after 10 days. Mr. Putin and Mr. Poroshenko met in Minsk, Belarus, last week, but no results were announced from that meeting, and within days the separatists opened a new front along the coast of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 10:38:45 AM
I'm thinking Ukraine should wait until all infrastructure & industry in Donbass is destroyed and then let them split away.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 10:38:56 AM
http://online.wsj.com/articles/nato-troops-to-take-part-in-military-exercises-in-ukraine-1409754651?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204190804580131663265158970.html

QuoteNATO Troops to Take Part in Military Exercises in Ukraine

WARSAW—Soldiers from the U.S. and some other North Atlantic Treaty Organization members will take part in military exercises in western Ukraine in mid-September despite the conflict with pro-Russia separatists in the country's east, Poland's defense ministry said Wednesday.

The Rapid Trident exercise will take place on Sept. 13-26 near Lviv and will include soldiers from Germany, the U.K., Spain, Poland and Norway.

Amid the conflict in Ukraine, NATO's eastern members, including Poland and the Baltic countries, have increased pressure on the alliance to increase its presence in the region.

In a move to assuage some of the region's concerns about its security and the NATO commitment, President Barack Obama was in Estonia on Wednesday ahead of the alliance's summit in Wales that starts on Thursday.

Both Poland and Estonia have asked for permanent military bases to be established in their countries.

Poland has since 2012 hosted a detachment with a handful of U.S. airmen, who coordinate regular military training, but has called for the U.S. to move thousands of soldiers permanently in the hope that their presence would deter Russia.

Some countries in the alliance have voiced their opposition to that for fear that it could provoke Moscow. The 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act says that NATO sees no reason for putting forces on the territory of new members.

The act has been cited by some officials in NATO countries as the obstacle to moving infrastructure to those former Soviet-bloc countries that joined NATO. For that reason, some of those countries see their membership of the bloc as incomplete.

Reassuring those members that Germany will come to their rescue if they are under attack, Chancellor Angela Merkel said this week that her administration wished to observe the NATO-Russia Founding Act.

Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, speaking at a press conference with Mr. Obama on Wednesday, said Russia has repeatedly violated the act and hence that the security situation has changed since 1997, when Boris Yeltsin was Russia's president.

"The NATO-Russia Founding Act has been violated by Russia. We continue to support the vision of that document, but its substance has changed dramatically, and I am confident that all of NATO's actions are and will be conducted in accordance with its international commitments as an alliance," he said.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Barrister on September 03, 2014, 11:03:20 AM
So there we go - another "frozen conflict", just like what Putin wanted.

Maybe it's the best Ukraine could hope for, now that Russia was mostly openly using it's heavy artillery and tanks, but still a sad day. :(
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 03, 2014, 11:17:02 AM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on September 03, 2014, 09:07:52 AM
Actually, yeah, Putin would want to distance himself from imagery like that.  While it's a decently effective domestic tool to wax nostalgic about the old Soviet Union days, if an actual return were to happen, the devil would be in the details.  Coming out smelling like roses in one regime change is tricky; two would be nigh impossible.

I have no idea what this post means.  Putin has stated openly that the fall of the USSR was the "greatest tragedy of the Twentieth Century."  He certainly doesn't distance himself from the memories and imagery of the USSR.

As far as "regime change" is concerned, I don't see why one would be needed in order to revert back to a socialist economy.  The existing regime could easily accommodate such a change; it has already centralized police, media, and infrastructure decision-making, so adding economics to the list isn't unthinkable.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 11:18:11 AM
RT reports that France won't be able to deliver the Mistral vessels that Russia had ordered. DETAILS TO FOLLOW.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 03, 2014, 11:18:19 AM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on September 03, 2014, 09:07:52 AM
Actually, yeah, Putin would want to distance himself from imagery like that.  While it's a decently effective domestic tool to wax nostalgic about the old Soviet Union days, if an actual return were to happen, the devil would be in the details.  Coming out smelling like roses in one regime change is tricky; two would be nigh impossible.

It's weird how them combine soviet imagery with the orthodox piety.  Soviet symbols are to the Russians as Confederate symbols are to Americans.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 03, 2014, 11:28:54 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 03, 2014, 11:18:19 AM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on September 03, 2014, 09:07:52 AM
Actually, yeah, Putin would want to distance himself from imagery like that.  While it's a decently effective domestic tool to wax nostalgic about the old Soviet Union days, if an actual return were to happen, the devil would be in the details.  Coming out smelling like roses in one regime change is tricky; two would be nigh impossible.

It's weird how them combine soviet imagery with the orthodox piety.  Soviet symbols are to the Russians as Confederate symbols are to Americans.

Nationalism has always been good at dealing with cognitive dissonance. I loved how somebody posted the other day a speech by Putin weaving a dolchstosslegende regarding how the 1917 Revolution made the Russians lose WWI, yet that same revolution ultimately created the regime whose power he wishes to regain.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 11:29:15 AM
Well, they are weird about them. Supposedly a separatist badge, combining Soviet and Tsarist flag. I think the only thing important for them about those insignia is that it conjures nostalgia about a strong Russia.

(https://i.imgur.com/9rqv5kg.jpg)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 11:32:41 AM
Blast from the past (2009), courtesy of EUOT:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/6480227/Russia-simulates-nuclear-attack-on-Poland.html

QuoteRussia 'simulates' nuclear attack on Poland

Russia has provoked outrage in Poland by simulating an air and sea attack on the country during military exercises.

The armed forces are said to have carried out "war games" in which nuclear missiles were fired and troops practised an amphibious landing on the country's coast.

Documents obtained by Wprost, one of Poland's leading news magazines, said the exercise was carried out in conjunction with soldiers from Belarus.

The manoeuvres are thought to have been held in September and involved about 13,000 Russian and Belarusian troops.

Poland, which has strained relations with both countries, was cast as the "potential aggressor".

The documents state the exercises, code-named "West", were officially classified as "defensive" but many of the operations appeared to have an offensive nature.

The Russian air force practised using weapons from its nuclear arsenal, while in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which neighbours Poland, Red Army forces stormed a "Polish" beach and attacked a gas pipeline.

The operation also involved the simulated suppression of an uprising by a national minority in Belarus – the country has a significant Polish population which has a strained relationship with authoritarian government of Belarus.


Karol Karski, an MP from Poland's Law and Justice, is to table parliamentary questions on Russia's war games and has protested to the European Commission.

His colleague, Marek Opiola MP, said: "It's an attempt to put us in our place. Don't forget all this happened on the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland."

Ordinary Poles were outraged by news of the exercise and demanded a firm response from the government.

One man, identified only as Ted, told Polskie Radio: "Russia has laid bare its real intentions with respect to Poland. Every Pole most now get of the off the fence and be counted as a patriot or a traitor."

Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, has tried to build a pragmatic relationship with the Kremlin despite widespread and vocal calls in Poland for him to cool ties with Moscow.

After spending 40 years under Soviet domination few in Poland trust Russia, and many Poles have become increasingly wary of a country they consider as possessing a neo-imperialistic agenda.

Bogdan Klich, Poland's defence minister, said: "It is a demonstration of strength. We are monitoring the exercises to see what has been planned.

Wladyslaw Stasiak, chief of President Lech Kaczynski's office, and a former head of Poland's National Security Council, added: "We didn't like the appearance of the exercises and the name harked back to the days of the Warsaw Pact."

The Russian troop exercises will come as an unwelcome sight to the states nestling on Russia's western border who have deep-rooted anxieties over any Russian show of strength.

With a resurgent Moscow now more willing to flex its muscles, Central and Eastern Europeans have warned of Russia adopting a neo-imperialistic attitude to an area of the world it still regards as its sphere of influence.

In July, the region's most famed and influential political figures, including Lech Walesa and Vaclav Havel, wrote an open letter Barack Obama warning him that Russia "is back as a revisionist power pursuing a 19th-century agenda with 21st-century tactics and methods."


Moscow and Minsk have insisted that Operation West was to help "ensure the strategic stability in the East European region".
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 03, 2014, 11:41:51 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 03, 2014, 11:18:11 AM
RT reports that France won't be able to deliver the Mistral vessels that Russia had ordered. DETAILS TO FOLLOW.

lets hope it is true.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: frunk on September 03, 2014, 11:54:35 AM
I'm really curious to what extent Snowden has played into all of these events.  The leaks, particularly those around Germany, seemed designed to split the western allies as much as possible.  It seems like Putin is pushing things much faster than would seem wise, particularly as far as raising the attention of the west, while the split is still fresh.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 03, 2014, 11:57:57 AM
Quote from: frunk on September 03, 2014, 11:54:35 AM
I'm really curious to what extent Snowden has played into all of these events.  The leaks, particularly those around Germany, seemed designed to split the western allies as much as possible.  It seems like Putin is pushing things much faster than would seem wise, particularly as far as raising the attention of the west, while the split is still fresh.

I had much sympathy for that guy initially, but now I despise him. He is either a Russian agent, or a narcissistic fool. In both cases he is a traitor to his country.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 03, 2014, 11:59:24 AM
Putin has been diagnosed with Parkinson's and accelerates his world conquest project.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: frunk on September 03, 2014, 12:00:13 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 03, 2014, 11:57:57 AM
I had much sympathy for that guy initially, but now I despise him. He is either a Russian agent, or a narcissistic fool. In both cases he is a traitor to his country.

I had no sympathy for him once he left US soil.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 03, 2014, 12:01:08 PM
Quote from: The Brain on September 03, 2014, 11:59:24 AM
Putin has been diagnosed with Parkinson's and accelerates his world conquest project.

You know what, I was thinking that maybe his obsession with botoxing the hell out of his face stems from the fact that he worries signs of some illness might show.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 03, 2014, 12:03:14 PM
Are you sure it's AIDS?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:23:00 PM
Quote from: frunk on September 03, 2014, 11:54:35 AM
I'm really curious to what extent Snowden has played into all of these events.  The leaks, particularly those around Germany, seemed designed to split the western allies as much as possible.  It seems like Putin is pushing things much faster than would seem wise, particularly as far as raising the attention of the west, while the split is still fresh.

Sometimes I think Putin is NATO's rcruiting seargent. If it wasn't for Putin, it seems likely that Nato would have dried up and blown away amidst squabbling and seeming pointlessness. Now, it's the hottest club in the world to join ... and every member is under pressure to increase defence spending.

Putin may well swallow bits of the Ukraine, but the cost has been a much-revitalized alliance that far outspends and outpowers him, and is totally dedicated to containing his ambitions.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: frunk on September 03, 2014, 12:31:25 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:23:00 PM
Sometimes I think Putin is NATO's rcruiting seargent. If it wasn't for Putin, it seems likely that Nato would have dried up and blown away amidst squabbling and seeming pointlessness. Now, it's the hottest club in the world to join ... and every member is under pressure to increase defence spending.

Putin may well swallow bits of the Ukraine, but the cost has been a much-revitalized alliance that far outspends and outpowers him, and is totally dedicated to containing his ambitions.

I'm assuming that either he's going to push this as far as it can go, or that he can lay low for a few years and then try to pull the same thing again.  After all that worked with Georgia.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 12:31:31 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:23:00 PM
Quote from: frunk on September 03, 2014, 11:54:35 AM
I'm really curious to what extent Snowden has played into all of these events.  The leaks, particularly those around Germany, seemed designed to split the western allies as much as possible.  It seems like Putin is pushing things much faster than would seem wise, particularly as far as raising the attention of the west, while the split is still fresh.

Sometimes I think Putin is NATO's rcruiting seargent. If it wasn't for Putin, it seems likely that Nato would have dried up and blown away amidst squabbling and seeming pointlessness. Now, it's the hottest club in the world to join ... and every member is under pressure to increase defence spending.

Putin may well swallow bits of the Ukraine, but the cost has been a much-revitalized alliance that far outspends and outpowers him, and is totally dedicated to containing his ambitions.

Alternatively, Putin is the final nail in the coffin if NATO only shows in relief the deep foreign policy divisions between its member states.

A lot depends on the Summit tomorrow.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 03, 2014, 12:39:54 PM
Quote from: frunk on September 03, 2014, 12:31:25 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:23:00 PM
Sometimes I think Putin is NATO's rcruiting seargent. If it wasn't for Putin, it seems likely that Nato would have dried up and blown away amidst squabbling and seeming pointlessness. Now, it's the hottest club in the world to join ... and every member is under pressure to increase defence spending.

Putin may well swallow bits of the Ukraine, but the cost has been a much-revitalized alliance that far outspends and outpowers him, and is totally dedicated to containing his ambitions.

I'm assuming that either he's going to push this as far as it can go, or that he can lay low for a few years and then try to pull the same thing again.  After all that worked with Georgia.

Georgia is a good point: what we are seeing now is Act 2, not Act 1. This shit WILL be pulled again unless it is made a very bad decision here and now.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:49:18 PM
Quote from: frunk on September 03, 2014, 12:31:25 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:23:00 PM
Sometimes I think Putin is NATO's rcruiting seargent. If it wasn't for Putin, it seems likely that Nato would have dried up and blown away amidst squabbling and seeming pointlessness. Now, it's the hottest club in the world to join ... and every member is under pressure to increase defence spending.

Putin may well swallow bits of the Ukraine, but the cost has been a much-revitalized alliance that far outspends and outpowers him, and is totally dedicated to containing his ambitions.

I'm assuming that either he's going to push this as far as it can go, or that he can lay low for a few years and then try to pull the same thing again.  After all that worked with Georgia.

Georgia went, for the most part, under the public radar. Ukraine has been playing itself out very much under the spotlight.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 12:49:42 PM
Merkel is citing the NATO-Russia Founding Act in opposing placing NATO troops in Eastern Europe:

http://www.dw.de/no-permanent-nato-troop-presence-in-eastern-europe-merkel-says/a-17897288


Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:50:44 PM
Quote from: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 12:31:31 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:23:00 PM
Quote from: frunk on September 03, 2014, 11:54:35 AM
I'm really curious to what extent Snowden has played into all of these events.  The leaks, particularly those around Germany, seemed designed to split the western allies as much as possible.  It seems like Putin is pushing things much faster than would seem wise, particularly as far as raising the attention of the west, while the split is still fresh.

Sometimes I think Putin is NATO's rcruiting seargent. If it wasn't for Putin, it seems likely that Nato would have dried up and blown away amidst squabbling and seeming pointlessness. Now, it's the hottest club in the world to join ... and every member is under pressure to increase defence spending.

Putin may well swallow bits of the Ukraine, but the cost has been a much-revitalized alliance that far outspends and outpowers him, and is totally dedicated to containing his ambitions.

Alternatively, Putin is the final nail in the coffin if NATO only shows in relief the deep foreign policy divisions between its member states.

A lot depends on the Summit tomorrow.

The members have a lot of divisions, but are united as one in not trusting Putin.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 12:51:31 PM
Really? Georgia was huge news over here.

What is big however is that France has just suspended delivery of the first Mistral.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: garbon on September 03, 2014, 12:55:20 PM
Quote from: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 12:51:31 PM
Really? Georgia was huge news over here.

We even had people worried that Russia was invading the US.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 03, 2014, 12:57:44 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 12:49:42 PM
Merkel is citing the NATO-Russia Founding Act in opposing placing NATO troops in Eastern Europe:

http://www.dw.de/no-permanent-nato-troop-presence-in-eastern-europe-merkel-says/a-17897288


Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.

:bleeding:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 01:01:45 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 12:49:42 PM
Merkel is citing the NATO-Russia Founding Act in opposing placing NATO troops in Eastern Europe:

http://www.dw.de/no-permanent-nato-troop-presence-in-eastern-europe-merkel-says/a-17897288


Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.

The Act's provisions state as follows:

QuoteNATO reiterates that in the current and foreseeable security environment, the Alliance will carry out its collective defence and other missions by ensuring the necessary interoperability, integration, and capability for reinforcement rather than by additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces. Accordingly, it will have to rely on adequate infrastructure commensurate with the above tasks. In this context, reinforcement may take place, when necessary, in the event of defence against a threat of aggression and missions in support of peace consistent with the United Nations Charter and the OSCE governing principles, as well as for exercises consistent with the adapted CFE Treaty, the provisions of the Vienna Document 1994 and mutually agreed transparency measures. Russia will exercise similar restraint in its conventional force deployments in Europe.

The restraint applied to "the current and foreseeable security environment", as of 1997. It isn't a pledge never to post permanent bases again, should the "security environment" change - as it obviously has.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 01:07:10 PM
Quote from: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 12:51:31 PM
Really? Georgia was huge news over here.

What is big however is that France has just suspended delivery of the first Mistral.

Reactions were muted. The general impression was that Russia was in the wrong and ought to be spanked for it, but actually spanking Russia over Georgia - tiny and remote from anywhere important - was a bad idea: Russia was too important otherwise.

The feeling is different this time around.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 01:09:19 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:50:44 PM
The members have a lot of divisions, but are united as one in not trusting Putin.

It's one thing to agree on the diagnosis of the problem, but another to agree on the course of action - particularly if different members have very different vulnerabilities to different actions.

To get a collective stance from NATO that means something, you have twenty-five European countries, each with their own head of government, various competing bureaucracies, electoral dynamics, economic priorities, internal political currents, continental (EU) political dynamics, and different sensitivities and vulnerabilities to what Russia is doing.

All in all, it's a wonder NATO manages to do anything in this crisis, particularly when its founding purpose was straightforward territorial defence and the Afghan turn 2006-14 has not, shall we say, been universally popular.

This is why the Summit is important: if at least the declarations and agreements in Wales are credible, then there's hope for a useful alliance. But if they're watered down and mealy-mouthed, then NATO broadcasts its own irrelevance.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 01:10:13 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 01:07:10 PM
Quote from: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 12:51:31 PM
Really? Georgia was huge news over here.

What is big however is that France has just suspended delivery of the first Mistral.

Reactions were muted. The general impression was that Russia was in the wrong and ought to be spanked for it, but actually spanking Russia over Georgia - tiny and remote from anywhere important - was a bad idea: Russia was too important otherwise.

The feeling is different this time around.

But you've seen the polling data that a worryingly significant proportion of Europeans think Putin is somewhat justified in what he's doing? Someone posted a map on this earlier, I believe.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 01:14:51 PM
Quote from: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 01:09:19 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:50:44 PM
The members have a lot of divisions, but are united as one in not trusting Putin.

It's one thing to agree on the diagnosis of the problem, but another to agree on the course of action - particularly if different members have very different vulnerabilities to different actions.

To get a collective stance from NATO that means something, you have twenty-five European countries, each with their own head of government, various competing bureaucracies, electoral dynamics, economic priorities, internal political currents, continental (EU) political dynamics, and different sensitivities and vulnerabilities to what Russia is doing.

All in all, it's a wonder NATO manages to do anything in this crisis, particularly when its founding purpose was straightforward territorial defence and the Afghan turn 2006-14 has not, shall we say, been universally popular.

This is why the Summit is important: if at least the declarations and agreements in Wales are credible, then there's hope for a useful alliance. But if they're watered down and mealy-mouthed, then NATO broadcasts its own irrelevance.

Statements like this by Merkel are not helpful:

Quote"When it comes to the question of the defense of the Baltic countries, I assume that the territorial integrity of these countries will be preserved," Merkel said, discussing Moscow's intentions in the region.

Yeah, nice assumption there. Hardly reassuring to those actually living in said countries!  :lol: As if Putin has shown himself a big respecter of other countries' "territorial integrity" in the past ... lord, does she ever sound as clueless as Chamberlain. 

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 03, 2014, 01:17:14 PM
No shit.  Germans need to put Schroeder back ASAP.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 01:20:24 PM
Quote from: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 01:10:13 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 01:07:10 PM
Quote from: Warspite on September 03, 2014, 12:51:31 PM
Really? Georgia was huge news over here.

What is big however is that France has just suspended delivery of the first Mistral.

Reactions were muted. The general impression was that Russia was in the wrong and ought to be spanked for it, but actually spanking Russia over Georgia - tiny and remote from anywhere important - was a bad idea: Russia was too important otherwise.

The feeling is different this time around.

But you've seen the polling data that a worryingly significant proportion of Europeans think Putin is somewhat justified in what he's doing? Someone posted a map on this earlier, I believe.

It is significant, but decreasing, was my impression.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: frunk on September 03, 2014, 01:32:05 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 01:14:51 PM
Yeah, nice assumption there. Hardly reassuring to those actually living in said countries!  :lol: As if Putin has shown himself a big respecter of other countries' "territorial integrity" in the past ... lord, does she ever sound as clueless as Chamberlain.

Whew, I was worried Obama had pulled that part in this re-enactment.

edit: So we've got:

Russia - Germany
Germany - UK
Georgia - Austria
Ukraine - Czechoslovakia
Baltic States - Poland
China - Japan
Hungary - Italy

The similarities break down with the US/NATO.  France maybe?  I hope not.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 03, 2014, 01:54:57 PM
Quote from: Syt on September 03, 2014, 11:29:15 AM
Well, they are weird about them. Supposedly a separatist badge, combining Soviet and Tsarist flag. I think the only thing important for them about those insignia is that it conjures nostalgia about a strong Russia.

(https://i.imgur.com/9rqv5kg.jpg)

national Bolshevik vibe that
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 03, 2014, 02:03:38 PM
Quote"When it comes to the question of the defense of the Baltic countries, I assume that the territorial integrity of these countries will be preserved," Merkel said, discussing Moscow's intentions in the region.   

Sounds like some of the US leadership too at times. I just hope a strongly worded letter is sent along to convey this sentiment. That'll show 'em!    :bowler:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 03, 2014, 02:45:11 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 07:44:12 PM
It is disjointed, reactionary, and there isn't any consensus among the actors on this side as to how to respond, which I would expect if the response was planned out prior to the provocation (ie, if Putin does this, we all agree to do that in response).

That seems less of an issue of "strategy" and more of an issue of "facts on the ground". Europe is like a herd of cats with different priorities; their disinclination to getting lined up nicely behind a robust plan is something you need to have a strategy to navigate, not evidence of a lack of strategy, IMO.

QuoteHow can *you* tell that this is a strategy, rather than just a reaction to someone else driving events?

Oh, I can't  :lol:

It's just that I can't think of a better alternative if there was a strategy, so I don't see it as evidence of the absence of one either.

QuoteI've never once heard of an aggressive actor like Putin, throughout history, ever being deterred from what they want to do by relatively light economic sanctions.

I can't think of any examples. The question, however, is what are the alternatives? Are we ready to do what it takes to effectively and thoroughly deter Putin, whatever it is? It seems to me that we'd need to be ready to step up to full out war with Russia for that, and I'm not sure that's worth it.

QuoteAnd what is more, so far as we can tell, the sanctions have not deterred Putin one bit. He took Crimea, and didn't care what the international community thought, and the international community obliged him by doing...nothing.

Now he has invaded yet ANOTHER country, and we threaten to not sell him grapes? Pfft. I suspect that this is exactly the kind of "response" that Putin predicted and counted on.

I'm under the impression that the sanctions - especially if escalation continues - has the potential to do significant damage to the Russian economy. While it may not be enough to cause Putin to back down, it's not nothing either, IMO.

QuoteSever econoic sanctions. Refuse to purchase gas.

Start sending arms to the Ukraine. Publicly and loudly prove to the world that we know Russians are inside the Ukraine. Call this what is is - a war of aggression against a sovereign nation.

I think that's where we are headed.

QuoteI don't care at all about leaving Putin room to back down - I don't think he has proven time and again that he doesn't operate in that fashion. He doesn't look at a "mealy mouthed" response as "Hey, they are giving me some room to retire gracefully, I should take it..." he looks at as "Fucking pussies, I knew they wouldn't call me on it. I am going to take the rest of the Crimea as well. Or Georgia. Or Azerbaijan".

Wanting to give someone room to back down is the kind of thing that is important when you are dealing with actors that are operating under the same basic operating principles as the rest of the west operates under, where the goal of everyone, 99% of the time, is to de-escalate situations far, far, FAR short of violence.

Putin has proven that he is not that kind of actor, and treating him as if he was someone "looking for some room to back down while saving face" is going to (and has, time and again) simply backfire.

It's not just about leaving him room to back down, it's also about avoiding putting ourselves in a corner where we have to follow through with something we don't actually want to do (or back down).

Quote
Quote from: JacobThat said, I could be wrong and I'm very open to hear how and why.

I am, as always, happy to help. :P

I knew I could count on you :hug:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 03, 2014, 04:29:47 PM
Quote from: frunk on September 03, 2014, 01:32:05 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 01:14:51 PM
Yeah, nice assumption there. Hardly reassuring to those actually living in said countries!  :lol: As if Putin has shown himself a big respecter of other countries' "territorial integrity" in the past ... lord, does she ever sound as clueless as Chamberlain.

Whew, I was worried Obama had pulled that part in this re-enactment.

edit: So we've got:

Russia - Germany
Germany - UK
Georgia - Austria
Ukraine - Czechoslovakia
Baltic States - Poland
China - Japan
Hungary - Italy

The similarities break down with the US/NATO.  France maybe?  I hope not.

Poland is probably the new France. ;)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: frunk on September 03, 2014, 04:50:27 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 03, 2014, 04:29:47 PM

Poland is probably the new France. ;)

I wonder who is going to end up as Russia.  I suppose China could, but I doubt it.  Iran?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 03, 2014, 04:58:16 PM
Quote from: frunk on September 03, 2014, 04:50:27 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 03, 2014, 04:29:47 PM

Poland is probably the new France. ;)

I wonder who is going to end up as Russia.  I suppose China could, but I doubt it.  Iran?
Definitely China.  Two bad actors teaming up to do mayhem together.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: frunk on September 03, 2014, 05:02:58 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 03, 2014, 04:58:16 PM
Definitely China.  Two bad actors teaming up to do mayhem together.

I still think they are Japan.  They are focused on aggravating their Pacific Ocean neighbors and I doubt Russia would be dumb enough to attack them.

I suppose I might be saying the same thing in the fall of 1940 about Germany/USSR, but still.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Caliga on September 03, 2014, 06:24:39 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 03, 2014, 04:29:47 PM
Poland is probably the new France. ;)
Are folks in Poland worried about all this, Mart?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 03, 2014, 06:27:04 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 03, 2014, 12:57:44 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 12:49:42 PM
Merkel is citing the NATO-Russia Founding Act in opposing placing NATO troops in Eastern Europe:

http://www.dw.de/no-permanent-nato-troop-presence-in-eastern-europe-merkel-says/a-17897288 (http://www.dw.de/no-permanent-nato-troop-presence-in-eastern-europe-merkel-says/a-17897288)


Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.

:bleeding:

Yeah.  My sentiments exactly.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 03, 2014, 07:00:30 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 12:49:42 PM
Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.
So we're permitted to violate the agreement because someone else did?  That would just make us as bad as Russia.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 07:34:32 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 03, 2014, 07:00:30 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 12:49:42 PM
Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.
So we're permitted to violate the agreement because someone else did?  That would just make us as bad as Russia.

Eh no it doesn't.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 03, 2014, 08:27:01 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 07:34:32 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 03, 2014, 07:00:30 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 03, 2014, 12:49:42 PM
Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.
So we're permitted to violate the agreement because someone else did?  That would just make us as bad as Russia.

Eh no it doesn't.
Whoosh
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Neil on September 03, 2014, 09:31:25 PM
Quote from: Malthus on September 03, 2014, 12:49:18 PM
Georgia went, for the most part, under the public radar.
That's not even a little bit true.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Ideologue on September 03, 2014, 10:24:31 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 02, 2014, 10:03:10 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 02, 2014, 08:10:54 AM
Putin, I am sure, has no idea just how weak and incapable of meaningful response much of NATO has become...

The unfortunate hamstringer for NATO is its very strength:  the nuclear deterrent.  Unfortunately, having nothing of a credible conventional capability between "strong letter to follow" and "full attack conference" is that it allows for absolutely no graduated response in a crisis that leads to direct conflict.  There's no room built into the equation for time in developing a political resolution.

If the Russians try to march to Riga, our options are limited.  Which is why I said earlier in the thread, if he moves on NATO, that's the whole ballgame.  Hopefully the nuclear battlefield would be restricted to eastern Europe, but it is established doctrine that strikes on Russian soil would require in-turn retaliation.

If Putin believes that his actions would result in 1) nothing, or 2) a nuclear response, that's a high risk/high reward roll of the dice I believe he'd make.  Is Riga or Warsaw worth Paris, London or New York?

Serious question: in the early 2000s, we could have pretty handily won a nuclear war with Russia; is this still the case, or have they renovated their strategic forces so that they would at least continue to have a deterrent function in the face of a first strike?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 03, 2014, 11:07:48 PM
Quote from: Ideologue on September 03, 2014, 10:24:31 PM
Serious question: in the early 2000s, we could have pretty handily won a nuclear war with Russia; is this still the case, or have they renovated their strategic forces so that they would at least continue to have a deterrent function in the face of a first strike?

I believe that through the 90s and into the early 2000s, we actually helped finance the Russians to keep their arsenal secured and maintained and paid for their early decommissions, and they still maintain a shitload of their total arsenal at full readiness.  Even in the worse days of the post-Soviet era, they've always had a sizable number of nuclear forces ready to go.

Whether or not they're still pointing at the open ocean like they agreed on years ago, I don't know.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 03, 2014, 11:47:50 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 03, 2014, 11:07:48 PM
Whether or not they're still pointing at the open ocean like they agreed on years ago, I don't know.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi141.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fr74%2Fpixelpusher1151%2FzLGK%2FVeryDoubtful.jpg&hash=2ed0a5e8b6f00bdadf4e4fd3640eea3c58398dce)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 03, 2014, 11:49:12 PM
Transparency, I has it.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 12:39:10 AM
Quote from: Caliga on September 03, 2014, 06:24:39 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 03, 2014, 04:29:47 PM
Poland is probably the new France. ;)
Are folks in Poland worried about all this, Mart?

Yes, quite a lot. The consensus seems to be that Putin will not go that far. But I don't think anyone believes the NATO or the EU will help us if he does.

Personally, I'm planning to move if Russia invades any Baltic state and NATO, predictably, does not respond with a full military response. This will be a watershed moment.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 12:53:43 AM
I don't think you have anything to worry about, Marti.  I mean, if I were Polish, I wouldn't trust western Europe with my dry cleaning either, but NATO is NATO.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 12:58:36 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 12:53:43 AM
I don't think you have anything to worry about, Marti.  I mean, if I were Polish, I wouldn't trust western Europe with my dry cleaning either, but NATO is NATO.

Well I guess we will see - if Russia invades a NATO state, wouldnt that be the first time NATO actually has to defend any member state's territory?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 01:02:24 AM
Yup.  The entire concept of the post-war collective security treaty model would be on the line.  There's no wiggle room, no goal-post moving of red lines, no outs.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 04, 2014, 01:09:27 AM
I have the same worries as Mart.  That's why we need a military presence in the Baltic states.  There must be doubt in the mind of Putin or who ever comes after him. I don't have complete confidence in our allies and honestly I don't in the president if the Russians attempt to muddy the waters.  If we have troops there, we will be forced to fight.  Si vis Pacem Para bellum.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Ideologue on September 04, 2014, 02:36:36 AM
How about we abandon the Baltics, but gift them with, say, two or three W87s apiece?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 06:08:03 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 12:58:36 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 12:53:43 AM
I don't think you have anything to worry about, Marti.  I mean, if I were Polish, I wouldn't trust western Europe with my dry cleaning either, but NATO is NATO.

Well I guess we will see - if Russia invades a NATO state, wouldnt that be the first time NATO actually has to defend any member state's territory?
It would be the second.  9/11 was the first.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:24:33 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 06:08:03 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 12:58:36 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 12:53:43 AM
I don't think you have anything to worry about, Marti.  I mean, if I were Polish, I wouldn't trust western Europe with my dry cleaning either, but NATO is NATO.

Well I guess we will see - if Russia invades a NATO state, wouldnt that be the first time NATO actually has to defend any member state's territory?
It would be the second.  9/11 was the first.

Not sure if serious, but there were surely terrorist attacks into member territories before. It's quite different from a military invasion from another state, though.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 06:34:08 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:24:33 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 06:08:03 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 12:58:36 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 12:53:43 AM
I don't think you have anything to worry about, Marti.  I mean, if I were Polish, I wouldn't trust western Europe with my dry cleaning either, but NATO is NATO.

Well I guess we will see - if Russia invades a NATO state, wouldnt that be the first time NATO actually has to defend any member state's territory?
It would be the second.  9/11 was the first.

Not sure if serious, but there were surely terrorist attacks into member territories before. It's quite different from a military invasion from another state, though.
Not sure if serious, but the threshold is the invocation of NATO Article 5, the obligation to come to the military aid of a member country under attack.  NATO's operations in Afghanistan after 9/11 were carried out under the first, and so far only, invocation of Article 5.  If Russia were to invade Estonia, NATO's military response would come only through invocation of that same Article 5.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:43:41 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 04, 2014, 01:09:27 AM
I have the same worries as Mart.  That's why we need a military presence in the Baltic states.  There must be doubt in the mind of Putin or who ever comes after him. I don't have complete confidence in our allies and honestly I don't in the president if the Russians attempt to muddy the waters.  If we have troops there, we will be forced to fight.  Si vis Pacem Para bellum.

Entirely agree and this is also what Poland and the Batlics understand - that's why we have been clamoring for the NATO bases in our borders for several years now (at least since Georgia).
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 04, 2014, 07:11:22 AM
I must say the whishy-washy nature of Merkel's comments are extremely disappointing.

Sometimes these things drive me to doubts about 4-years term systems. Surely her concerns are for the short-time interests of her supporters in the business circle, since they can hurt her now and while she has a chance for continued career/power. Risking short-term political loss or elimination for a clear long-term gain cannot be computed as advantageous for selfish polticans, since by the time the long term solution (in this case, not letting Russia export the same crisis to NATO members) comes to fruit, she will not be in power anymore, and the voters wouldn't notice the lack of a crisis anyways.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: HVC on September 04, 2014, 07:26:59 AM
Germany needs a strong leader. Ex military. Maybe Austrian.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 04, 2014, 07:28:54 AM
Quote from: HVC on September 04, 2014, 07:26:59 AM
Germany needs a strong leader. Ex military. Maybe Austrian.

I nominate Sytass.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 04, 2014, 07:32:10 AM
 :ph34r:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 04, 2014, 08:15:29 AM
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/obama-commitment-eastern-europe-russia-nato/379581/

QuoteObama Just Made the Ultimate Commitment to Eastern Europe
No U.S. president since Reagan has used such forceful language against Russia.
David Frum Sep 3 2014, 5:18 PM ET

Presidents give a lot of speeches, and most of them don't mean very much. They "urge," they "call on," and they "challenge"—and, for the most part, their messages bounce off their intended audiences. Congress doesn't fund the program or balance the budget; the American people carry on wasting energy and dropping out of school. But there are occasions when presidential words are not mere puffs of breath and waves of sound—and today was one of those occasions.

Ever since Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine, the question has been whether the United States would really act to defend its new NATO allies on Russia's borders. During the Cold War, the United States stationed a powerful army in West Germany to put force behind its treaty guarantee of European security. Then the Cold War ended. NATO enlarged to include first Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic in 1999, then the Baltic republics, plus Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004, and most recently Albania and Croatia in 2009.

Partly for economic reasons, partly to appease the Kremlin, NATO did not garrison the new member states on Russia's border. Polish officials would joke that the only uniformed American in their country was the defense attaché at the U.S. embassy, which was an exaggeration, but not by much. They had NATO's word—America's word—but not much more than that word. And all of them had to worry: Was that enough?

The worry has intensified since Barack Obama came to power. Eager to prove themselves loyal allies, the new NATO members had cooperated with the United States—and then some—in the first decade of the 2000s. They had sent troops to the Iraq War. They had allowed the CIA to hold and question detainees on their territory. They had accepted a U.S. missile-defense system—even as the U.S. insisted that the system was intended to protect only against Iranian missiles (which didn't threaten them) and not against Russian missiles (which did).

No Eastern European good deed went unpunished. Their cooperation with the CIA was leaked to the U.S. media, exposing them to accusations that they had violated European Union human-rights treaties. Their Iraq sacrifices counted little with an administration that wanted to exit that war on almost any terms. In the fall of 2009, the missile-defense system was canceled, ostensibly for technical reasons, but more likely (or so the Eastern Europeans believed) as part of the Obama administration's hoped-for "reset" of relations with Russia.

Just as candidate Obama traveled to Germany in 2008 to dramatize how the Bush administration had alienated America's traditional allies in Western Europe, so in 2012 Mitt Romney visited with former Polish President Lech Walesa to emphasize how badly the Obama administration had upset new allies in the East.

Now the long-dreaded crisis has arrived. Putin's Russia has launched an escalating war against Ukraine. The number of dead is rising toward 3,000, including the 300 passengers aboard the Malaysia Airlines flight almost certainly brought down by a Russian-supplied missile. The justification for Putin's aggression—Russia's right to intervene on behalf of Russian-speaking minorities—could be applied against Estonia and Latvia as well as against Ukraine. And those small countries are far less capable of resisting Russia than Ukraine is. Pretty much all they have, in fact, is the guarantee of NATO's Article 5: an attack on one member is an attack on all. Can that guarantee be relied upon? There has been no shortage of commentators arguing that it cannot.

True, the United States and Germany have stepped up their presence inside the Baltics and Poland since the annexation of Crimea. Elite special forces have been rotated into the three Baltic republics. Military equipment will be prepositioned in Poland. In March, NATO announced that it would hold exercises in western Ukraine at the end of September—exercises that look a lot like practice for a defensive war against a Russian invasion of an Eastern European country. Just this past week, NATO agreed to form a new "very high-readiness" brigade that could quickly deploy anywhere in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, U.S.-led sanctions are exerting an ever-tightening grip on the Russian economy. Earlier this week, one gas-industry insider told The Financial Times that without access to U.S. technology, Russia's hopes to develop a liquefied natural-gas industry would be squashed "like a bug."

That all sent a message, but only indirectly. The direct message came on Wednesday, in Tallinn, Estonia, in the sharpest language any U.S. president has used toward Russia since Ronald Reagan upbraided the Evil Empire. One by one, President Obama repudiated the lies Vladimir Putin has told about Ukraine: that the Ukrainians somehow provoked the invasion, that they are Nazis, that their freely elected government is somehow illegal. He rejected Russia's claim that it has some sphere of influence in Ukraine, some right of veto over Ukrainian constitutional arrangements. And he forcefully assured Estonians—and all NATO's new allies—that waging war on them meant waging war on the United States. "[T]he defense of Tallinn and Riga and Vilnius is just as important as the defense of Berlin and Paris and London," Obama said. "Article 5 is crystal clear. An attack on one is an attack on all. So if, in such a moment, you ever ask again, who'll come to help, you'll know the answer: the NATO alliance, including the armed forces of the United States of America, right here, present, now."

This is the ultimate commitment, given by the ultimate authority, in the very place where the commitment would be tested—and would have to be honored. There's no turning back from that. Today, for the first time perhaps, Eastern Europeans have reason to believe it. And Vladimir Putin? His depredations have brought about the very result he claimed most to fear: a reanimated NATO rededicated to the defense of all its members, new and old, West and East, backed by the ultimate commitment of the United States.

In Tallinn, President Obama gave the most important speech about European security—and issued the most important pledge—of the post-Cold War era.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 08:26:59 AM
So he basically drew a red line?  :)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 04, 2014, 08:28:27 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 08:26:59 AM
So he basically drew a red line?  :)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lapollonio.com%2Fimages%2Frap_battle.gif&hash=db331cc88c80743f1325f3148a696de95533051a)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 08:31:01 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.

Well, NATO differed with your interpretation, but feel free to try to re-define your way into not being wrong if that makes you feel smarter.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 04, 2014, 08:42:09 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 08:31:01 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.

Well, NATO differed with your interpretation, but feel free to try to re-define your way into not being wrong if that makes you feel smarter.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Freplygif.net%2Fi%2F1479.gif&hash=caee5f24d6cc5ff990d8e564519a893b7dbfe4c4)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 04, 2014, 08:43:38 AM
We could all learn a lot from Michael Scott.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 04, 2014, 08:56:03 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 08:31:01 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.

Well, NATO differed with your interpretation, but feel free to try to re-define your way into not being wrong if that makes you feel smarter.
NATO may call it whatever it wants, with no self-serving explanation I'm sure, but we all know what was meant.  NATO's potential bluff against Russia has never been called yet.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 04, 2014, 09:17:35 AM
My view is that Russia will follow a similar but less forceful game plan as he's doing with Ukraine to make moves on the Baltic states. Russian operatives will foment protests among the Russian speaking residents but this time Russia will keep a much lower profile, at first. The protests will get stronger and more vehement over time, prompting Putin to start blustering about the injustices to Russian minorities. In the ensuing fighting it'll be made more to look like local forces against the government so as not to provoke NATO (too much). Fighting will be more like civil unrest, civil war, and unless it gets to a point where Russian forces, equipment and advisors move in as they did early on in Ukraine then Putin may be able to stall any NATO action until it's too late. But then, without Russian equipment the insurgency can't likely win so Putin will try to find ways to justify helping the minority Russians/Russian operatives/special forces or to do so in much less visible ways, having learned from Ukraine. It's a gamble but probably Putin's most logical potential move, as I do think he'll really want to move on the Baltics. I do't see any such plan working with Poland though.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 04, 2014, 09:22:07 AM
There is no way Russia goes after Poland.  No way.
Baltics are a different story.  Still unikely, but not impossible some sort of indirect subversion type tactics could be attempted.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 04, 2014, 09:32:04 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 08:26:59 AM
So he basically drew a red line?  :)
If he backs down on this one he'll destroy 70 years of American foreign policy. I don't think you really think it's comparable to what he said about Syria.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on September 04, 2014, 09:38:10 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 08:26:59 AM
So he basically drew a red line?  :)

Actually, Truman drew that red line.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 09:41:29 AM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on September 04, 2014, 09:38:10 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 08:26:59 AM
So he basically drew a red line?  :)

Actually, Truman drew that red line.

At the Baltics?  I guess he had even more balls than I thought.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 04, 2014, 09:42:12 AM
Quote from: KRonn on September 04, 2014, 09:17:35 AM
My view is that Russia will follow a similar but less forceful game plan as he's doing with Ukraine to make moves on the Baltic states. Russian operatives will foment protests among the Russian speaking residents but this time Russia will keep a much lower profile, at first. The protests will get stronger and more vehement over time, prompting Putin to start blustering about the injustices to Russian minorities. In the ensuing fighting it'll be made more to look like local forces against the government so as not to provoke NATO (too much). Fighting will be more like civil unrest, civil war, and unless it gets to a point where Russian forces, equipment and advisors move in as they did early on in Ukraine then Putin may be able to stall any NATO action until it's too late. But then, without Russian equipment the insurgency can't likely win so Putin will try to find ways to justify helping the minority Russians/Russian operatives/special forces or to do so in much less visible ways, having learned from Ukraine. It's a gamble but probably Putin's most logical potential move, as I do think he'll really want to move on the Baltics. I do't see any such plan working with Poland though.

Don't see how it can really work as everyone will see right through it from the start. No russian minority will be trusted again on the borders with Russia due to Putin's shenanigans. And if they as much as make a stink the fingers will be pointing to Putin
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 04, 2014, 09:44:29 AM
Yeah, and pointing fingers at Putin has been shown to be an effective way of stopping him.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 09:44:31 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on September 04, 2014, 09:32:04 AM
If he backs down on this one he'll destroy 70 years of American foreign policy. I don't think you really think it's comparable to what he said about Syria.

I'm not sure "70 years of foreign policy" weighs that much on his mind.  Anyway it was a throw-away comment.  I don't know if he's serious or not, but I just thought I'd make mention of him talking tough before.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 04, 2014, 09:47:34 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 04, 2014, 09:22:07 AM
There is no way Russia goes after Poland.  No way.
Baltics are a different story.  Still unikely, but not impossible some sort of indirect subversion type tactics could be attempted.

Agreed on Poland, no way. Not even a subversion campaign will have any effect. But I won't be surprised if protests and unrest start in some of the Baltic states after Ukraine, in a couple of years or sooner, especially if events in Ukraine don't damage Putin/Russia too much with sanctions and European/US reactions.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 09:55:17 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 06:08:03 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 12:58:36 AM
Well I guess we will see - if Russia invades a NATO state, wouldnt that be the first time NATO actually has to defend any member state's territory?
It would be the second.  9/11 was the first.

Thankfully we have your attention to nitpickery to highlight the largely ceremonial invocation of Article 5 against a non-state actor.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 09:59:17 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.

Don't fuck with grumbler, he will out-lawyer you.  A is A.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 04, 2014, 10:00:47 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 04, 2014, 09:42:12 AM
Quote from: KRonn on September 04, 2014, 09:17:35 AM
My view is that Russia will follow a similar but less forceful game plan as he's doing with Ukraine to make moves on the Baltic states. Russian operatives will foment protests among the Russian speaking residents but this time Russia will keep a much lower profile, at first. The protests will get stronger and more vehement over time, prompting Putin to start blustering about the injustices to Russian minorities. In the ensuing fighting it'll be made more to look like local forces against the government so as not to provoke NATO (too much). Fighting will be more like civil unrest, civil war, and unless it gets to a point where Russian forces, equipment and advisors move in as they did early on in Ukraine then Putin may be able to stall any NATO action until it's too late. But then, without Russian equipment the insurgency can't likely win so Putin will try to find ways to justify helping the minority Russians/Russian operatives/special forces or to do so in much less visible ways, having learned from Ukraine. It's a gamble but probably Putin's most logical potential move, as I do think he'll really want to move on the Baltics. I do't see any such plan working with Poland though.

Don't see how it can really work as everyone will see right through it from the start. No russian minority will be trusted again on the borders with Russia due to Putin's shenanigans. And if they as much as make a stink the fingers will be pointing to Putin

Putin ripped off a chunk of Georgia and Crimea under similar pretexts as in Ukraine and he may have more Russian minorities in some of the Baltic states. He's threatening Kazakhstan and probably other of those eastern/southern former USSR republics. I think he's going after all he can and the Baltics are a choice for him, as in at least one case there are 30% Russian minorities, if I remember that right. Plus he can really mess with NATO, maybe try to push NATO to the breaking point with a subversive campaign that they won't know how to really respond. The West may bluster but will NATO go in if the a Baltic state's problems look more internal, even while knowing that Putin has a big hand in things? I would hope NATO would react but Putin would like nothing better than to bring NATO down a couple of notches as well as to gain back some land. And he can always back down if NATO does respond and things aren't going the way he wants.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 04, 2014, 10:17:41 AM
Yes, correct me if I am wrong but relatively speaking, compared to the Baltic States there are like no Russians at all in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 10:25:51 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 04, 2014, 10:17:41 AM
Yes, correct me if I am wrong but relatively speaking, compared to the Baltic States there are like no Russians at all in Ukraine.

Depends on how you define "Russians".  Ethnic Ukrainians that only speak Russian and have more loyalty toward Russia than to Ukraine might as well be Russians as far as I'm concerned.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 04, 2014, 11:21:35 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 10:25:51 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 04, 2014, 10:17:41 AM
Yes, correct me if I am wrong but relatively speaking, compared to the Baltic States there are like no Russians at all in Ukraine.

Depends on how you define "Russians".  Ethnic Ukrainians that only speak Russian and have more loyalty toward Russia than to Ukraine might as well be Russians as far as I'm concerned.

They are Russians then. Ethnicity as in terms of biological origin means absolutely nothing in this part of world, despite what a lot of people would have you know. Every neighbouring people have been busy cross-breeding. :P
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 04, 2014, 12:00:05 PM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 08:31:01 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.

Well, NATO differed with your interpretation, but feel free to try to re-define your way into not being wrong if that makes you feel smarter.

It's flattering to know you think so highly of my arguments that you would adopt my rhetoric as your own. 
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 03:07:29 PM
Did you all see the Tallinn speech?  Happy now, motherfuckers?

"The armed forces of the United States of America, right here, present, now."

England?  A gas station.  Germany? Staging area. Poland? Our mail gets forwarded there.  Fuck Euroweenia. NATO's HNIC is on the scene, bitches.

Always bet on black.

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 03:09:05 PM
Well Seedy is rigid.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: garbon on September 04, 2014, 03:09:31 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 03:07:29 PM
Did you all see the Tallinn speech?  Happy now, motherfuckers?

"The armed forces of the United States of America, right here, present, now."

England?  A gas station.  Germany? Staging area. Poland? Our mail gets forwarded there.  Fuck Euroweenia. NATO's HNIC is on the scene, bitches.

Always bet on black.



That's a lot of excitement over Obama.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 03:14:06 PM
Jon Stewart was somewhat less excited: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/stewart-mocks-obama-cant-he-condemn-russia-just-a-little-faster/
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 03:19:50 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 04, 2014, 08:56:03 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 08:31:01 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.

Well, NATO differed with your interpretation, but feel free to try to re-define your way into not being wrong if that makes you feel smarter.
NATO may call it whatever it wants, with no self-serving explanation I'm sure, but we all know what was meant.  NATO's potential bluff against Russia has never been called yet.
The question was "wouldnt that be the first time NATO actually has to defend any member state's territory?"  The answer was no, NATO invoked Article 5, the mutual self-defense mechanism, against the state of Afghanistan for supporting an attack on a member state.  If Mart had asked "wouldnt that be the first time NATO actually has to defend any member state's territory against Russia?" The answer would, indeed, be "yes."  You can weasel around to try to make the first question into the second in order to be able to ignore the correct answer to the first question, but I don't see the point.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 03:21:03 PM
Well grumbler is rigid.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 03:23:14 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 09:55:17 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 06:08:03 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 12:58:36 AM
Well I guess we will see - if Russia invades a NATO state, wouldnt that be the first time NATO actually has to defend any member state's territory?
It would be the second.  9/11 was the first.

Thankfully we have your attention to nitpickery to highlight the largely ceremonial invocation of Article 5 against a non-state actor.
Marti asked a question, I answered it.  And Article 5 was enacted against Afghanistan, which is technically a state.  I fail to see the point in trying to redefine the question.  Just ask a more qualified question, if you want the more qualified answer.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 03:24:07 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 03:21:03 PM
Well grumbler is rigid correct.
FTFY.  I don't know why you are getting your panties in a twist over this.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 03:35:59 PM
grumblin' ain't easy.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 04, 2014, 03:41:34 PM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 03:23:14 PM
Marti asked a question, I answered it.  And Article 5 was enacted against Afghanistan, which is technically a state.  I fail to see the point in trying to redefine the question.  Just ask a more qualified question, if you want the more qualified answer.
What a tool.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: garbon on September 04, 2014, 03:43:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 04, 2014, 03:41:34 PM
Quote from: grumbler on September 04, 2014, 03:23:14 PM
Marti asked a question, I answered it.  And Article 5 was enacted against Afghanistan, which is technically a state.  I fail to see the point in trying to redefine the question.  Just ask a more qualified question, if you want the more qualified answer.
What a tool.

What is his purpose?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 03:49:28 PM
Ukrainian media are reporting that Lavrov and Fabius (Russian and French foreign ministers) called "upon the parties of the conflict in Ukraine" to seek an immediate ceasefire.  :lmfao:

Seriously, every time something like this happen I think the French would not stoop to greater lows of being the shittiest humanoids on the planet yet they never cease to amaze me.

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 04, 2014, 04:58:35 PM
I think Putin is largely explicable in his actions, if he feels what he regards as legitimate Russian security concerns are being challenged, then he pushes back and then a bit further to impose a 'cost' on those challenging his sphere of influence.

So with Georgia, the President there tried to rush an military annexation/re-occupation of South Ossetia, Putin reacts by trouncing the Georgian military, stomping around Georgia proper, then withdrawing, but recognizing independent Abhkazia and S.Ossetia.

In the Ukraine, for whatever reason the EU decided to attract or help the country move out of the Russia orbit, Putin's semi-client President is toppled, so he reacts by taking Crimea and a while later aiding or fomenting unrest in the East, so the Ukraine might ultimately end up the the NATO/EU orbit, but it will have some chunks missing, to his mind a cost has been imposed, never mind that there have been other economic and political damage done to Russia.

With the Baltic states, they're already firmly in the EU/NATO domain, there's nowhere else for them to go. I'd guess if there is some unrest/agitation from ethnic Russians, then the most Putin will go for/ or hope is for those people to be given full language and citizenship rights. If there were to be any armed insurrection, I don't see him putting arms across the border, I'd guess he'd try and milk the situation for political propaganda (mainly internal Russian) and perhaps demand a peace-keeping/observer force on the borders of the Baltics.

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 04, 2014, 05:24:22 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 04, 2014, 09:44:31 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on September 04, 2014, 09:32:04 AM
If he backs down on this one he'll destroy 70 years of American foreign policy. I don't think you really think it's comparable to what he said about Syria.

I'm not sure "70 years of foreign policy" weighs that much on his mind.  Anyway it was a throw-away comment.  I don't know if he's serious or not, but I just thought I'd make mention of him talking tough before.
:lol: If you don't think his legacy weighs down on him like a ton of lead, you're delusional. Backing down on this would have him thrown done into the James Buchanon level of terrible presidents by the judgement of history.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 04, 2014, 08:23:32 PM
Rumours of a possible late night early morning attack on the port city of Mariupol tomorrow.

Alternatively there'll be a ceasefire with the rebels, which may be the outcome of talks in Minsk tonight. 

Elsewhere the Ukrainian army is in general retreat/tactical withdraw around Luhansk/Eastern Donetsk.

:hmm:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: citizen k on September 04, 2014, 11:10:07 PM
America's best and brightest in Ukraine, from 2013:

Як сучасні військовослужбовці вчать англійську мову ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxXphqs1PrU&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxXphqs1PrU&feature=youtu.be)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: citizen k on September 04, 2014, 11:16:54 PM

http://www.eur.army.mil/RapidTrident/ (http://www.eur.army.mil/RapidTrident/)

Quote
Rapid Trident is designed to promote regional stability and security, strengthen partnership capacity, and foster trust while improving interoperability between USAREUR, the land forces of Ukraine, and other PfP and NATO partner nations.


Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: citizen k on September 04, 2014, 11:27:59 PM

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fusarmy.vo.llnwd.net%2Fe2%2Fc%2Fimages%2F2011%2F08%2F05%2F215516%2Fsize0.jpg&hash=1c2a5adc7eff6973cb413057af9922b0073e917e)


(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fd3.static.dvidshub.net%2Fmedia%2Fthumbs%2Fphotos%2F1307%2F975207%2F450x450_q75.jpg&hash=ed778a23335ef281fd46c3ec07dfcbc8a156868e)

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 04, 2014, 11:32:59 PM
Sometimes I wish I voted for McCain. :(
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Barrister on September 04, 2014, 11:33:40 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 04, 2014, 11:32:59 PM
Sometimes I wish I voted for McCain. :(

Smetimes I wish you'd voted for McCain too. :console:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 11:40:31 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 04, 2014, 11:32:59 PM
Sometimes I wish I voted for McCain. :(

Remember, that came with the same number of years as "You betcha! Hopey changey!"

Don't think I'd have been able to tolerate that.  Biker Joe, yeah.  Even Darth Cheney growling at things and people.  But not that.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 04, 2014, 11:41:54 PM
Other than snuggling with some biker chick, I have no clue what Biden's been up to the past 6 years.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 11:43:23 PM
Washing his Camaro shirtless.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 05, 2014, 04:14:18 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on September 04, 2014, 11:41:54 PM
Other than snuggling with some biker chick, I have no clue what Biden's been up to the past 6 years.
Swimming naked in the pool.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 05, 2014, 05:39:18 AM
Maripol is under attack while the cease fire negotiations are starting.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 05, 2014, 07:07:18 AM
Finally got around to reading Obama's Tallinn speech.

Gotta say, as much as I am cynical about politicians and promises, I couldn't help it - I got misty eyed.  :cry:

It hit all the right notes.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: garbon on September 05, 2014, 08:11:12 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 04, 2014, 11:32:59 PM
Sometimes I wish I voted for McCain. :(

I did. ^_^ -_-
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 05, 2014, 08:15:17 AM
Putin is a mad dog, but even he cannot justify the threat that Sarah Palin would present to the country.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Legbiter on September 05, 2014, 08:16:55 AM
And now Putin gets to be the peacemaker after having defeated the Ukes. They need to put more Russians into the dirt to raise the cost for him.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 05, 2014, 09:29:19 AM
Quote from: Legbiter on September 05, 2014, 08:16:55 AM
And now Putin gets to be the peacemaker after having defeated the Ukes. They need to put more Russians into the dirt to raise the cost for him.

You have to admit he knows how to make a fool out of people. He started this whole shit, his troops are on the ground, and now plays the mediator of peace between two other parties.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 05, 2014, 11:01:02 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 05, 2014, 09:29:19 AM
Quote from: Legbiter on September 05, 2014, 08:16:55 AM
And now Putin gets to be the peacemaker after having defeated the Ukes. They need to put more Russians into the dirt to raise the cost for him.

You have to admit he knows how to make a fool out of people. He started this whole shit, his troops are on the ground, and now plays the mediator of peace between two other parties.

Nah. His "skill" is that of a schoolyard bully. It's just a testimony to the powerlessness of international community - he makes "a fool out of people" in the same way as a bully tells his victim to "stop hitting yourself".
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 05, 2014, 11:06:50 AM
It's skill, nonetheless.  May not be an admirable trait, but he's pretty good at what he does.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 05, 2014, 11:16:45 AM
Yeah that's what I meant.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 05, 2014, 11:22:18 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29078465

QuoteRussian TV lauds 'volunteers' fighting in Ukraine

Russian state television channels have for the first time reported on the funerals of Russian troops who fought alongside pro-Moscow rebels in eastern Ukraine.

The broadcasts repeated the official line that the troops are "volunteers" or travelled to Ukraine on leave rather than in any official capacity. Western leaders accuse the Kremlin of sending regular army units into Ukraine.

The three main channels - Rossiya, Channel One and NTV - ran reports on the funeral of one such "volunteer", Anatoly Travkin, in the city of Kostroma northeast of Moscow.

'Preventing atrocities'

The reports were full of patriotic rhetoric about Slavonic unity and Russian brotherhood.

Mr Travkin was a "volunteer who could not idly observe events in Ukraine", said NTV, which reported that he had just got married six weeks earlier.

His only relative to speak on air, an aunt, was also on-message: "He wanted to serve his motherland. He gave his life for all of us".

NTV interviewed army veterans at the funeral, one of whom expressed pride that his "regimental comrades are carrying out the duty of any Russian person honourably, to prevent the atrocities now taking place in Donetsk and Luhansk regions".

Russians rely overwhelmingly on the state TV channels for news.

'International duty'

Rossiya TV interviewed Russian army veterans who said that fighting for the separatists was a matter of "internationalist duty", echoing the rhetoric of the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and even the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s.

"As long as there is a Russian world, we will stand up for it," said a veteran of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, jabbing his finger at his television audience. "These lads did their duty, their international duty, their fraternal duty, and they should have eternal glory."

Another volunteer, apparently still fighting in Ukraine, spoke of "not letting fascism pass" - a popular slogan of Spanish Republican forces in the 1930s.

Rossiya said up to 4,000 Russians were fighting for the Donetsk and Luhansk militias, and its correspondent interviewed a wounded volunteer in Moscow who had gone to Ukraine "because he realised that otherwise he could not consider himself a man".

'Amazing spiritual impulse'

The volunteers are "united by a heightened sense of justice and historical truth", the correspondent continued, and animated by an "amazing spiritual impulse".

"They speak of their own wounds reluctantly, of their comrades' feats with admiration, and of the Ukrainian punishment units' atrocities with contempt."

Rossiya contrasted the Russian volunteers with foreign fighters on the Ukrainian side, whom it dismissed as "mercenaries". One Russian volunteer from the city of Rostov said he had disarmed a bayonet-wielding American in hand-to-hand combat.

'Heroes'

On Friday the speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament, Valentina Matviyenko, spoke at the funeral of Andrei Stenin, a Russian news agency photographer killed while covering the fighting in Ukraine.

She said "more and more Russian volunteers are joining the ranks of those fighting for their rights, for justice, and for peace in the land of our fraternal nation", and dubbed them "heroes" in a live report on LifeNews TV.

Ms Matviyenko made what appears to be one of the first acknowledgements by such a senior figure that "volunteers" are dying alongside the separatists in Ukraine.

In Kostroma some relatives of paratroopers have been trying to get news of their whereabouts, fearing that they have been sent to Ukraine.

:x
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 05, 2014, 11:23:43 AM
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/sep/05/ukraine-catastrophic-defeat/
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 05, 2014, 11:27:11 AM
Everyone was busy chewing the bone Putin threw with the whole white "aid convoy"... "is it stopping?" "is it going?" "is it aid?" "is it weapons?" Now it seems obvious it was a decoy to switch attention from the preparations they had to do for their mini blitzkrieg against the Ukrainians down south.
That article's claims also explain the sudden Ukrainian desire for peace.

I am just hoping that they would rather cede those territories than grant autonomy. With a nominally Ukrainian east controlled by "rebel" military, their country is fucked forever. Of course, Putin may not want them to hand over those territories for the very same reason.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 05, 2014, 12:03:42 PM
All seems eerily similar to Georgia.  Government offensive against rebels initially successful until it triggers overt Russian invasion.  Ukrainians should either try to hit back with all they have or spin off that Donbass region, which they'd do best without at this point.  In the case of the latter, evacuate any loyal Ukrainians and let the rest live to regret being ruled by Putin later on; also let Putin rebuild that area on his own dime.

Some sort of gray situation where they have zero control/influence in that region yet it's still a troublesome part of their country would be the worst case for Ukraine, I agree.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Barrister on September 05, 2014, 12:05:18 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 05, 2014, 12:03:42 PM
Some sort of gray situation where they have zero control/influence in that region yet it's still a troublesome part of their country would be the worst case for Ukraine, I agree.

Which is precisely why it is what Putin wants.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 05, 2014, 12:06:41 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 05, 2014, 12:03:42 PM
All seems eerily similar to Georgia.  Government offensive against rebels initially successful until it triggers overt Russian invasion.  Ukrainians should either try to hit back with all they have or spin off that Donbass region, which they'd do best without at this point.  In the case of the latter, evacuate any loyal Ukrainians and let the rest live to regret being ruled by Putin later on; also let Putin rebuild that area on his own dime.

Some sort of gray situation where they have zero control/influence in that region yet it's still a troublesome part of their country would be the worst case for Ukraine, I agree.

Although I think it would also be a situation that the West would be willing to agree to. A fucked up Ukraine with no Russian Army in it is still better than the Russian border touching the EU at Hungary, Romania, and Poland.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 05, 2014, 12:59:14 PM
Quote from: Barrister on September 05, 2014, 12:05:18 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 05, 2014, 12:03:42 PM
Some sort of gray situation where they have zero control/influence in that region yet it's still a troublesome part of their country would be the worst case for Ukraine, I agree.

Which is precisely why it is what Putin wants.

Would he be able to refuse the Donbass region of it were publicly offered to him?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 05, 2014, 02:03:03 PM
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/748380

QuoteEstonian security officer detained in Russia's Pskov region

MOSCOW, September 05. /ITAR-TASS/. An officer of the Estonian security police was detained on Friday on the territory of Russia's north-western Pskov region while he was conducting an undercover operation, the public relations center of the Federal Security Service told ITAR-TASS.

"A citizen of Estonia, Eston Kohver, who is an officer of the Estonian security police bureau, was detained on the territory of the Russian Federation," the press center said. "He had a Taurus handgun, an amount of €5,000 in cash, equipment for covert audio recording, and materials indicative of an intelligence mission."
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 05, 2014, 02:05:16 PM
Whereas Estonia says:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/estonian-officer-abducted-near-border-with-russia-1409928475

QuoteEstonia Says Officer Abducted Near Russian Border

Security Service Accuses Individuals Coming From Russia; Moscow Says Arrest Occurred in Russia

TALLINN, Estonia—The apparent abduction and detention of an Estonian security officer raised tensions between Estonia and Russia just two days after President Barack Obama came to the country and vowed to defend it as a NATO member.

Estonia's Internal Security Service, known as KAPO, said its officer Eston Kohver was "illegally detained" at gunpoint early Friday while on duty in southeastern Estonia. It said his abductors had come from Russia and had jammed radio communications and used a smoke grenade in the incident.

"It is unacceptable that people who have crossed the Estonian border kidnap an Estonian citizen from Estonian territory," President Toomas Hendrik Ilves tweeted on Friday. "I expect the case to be solved quickly."

Russia's Federal Security Service, or FSB, said Mr. Kohver had been detained on Russian territory as part of a counter-espionage operation. The Interfax news agency quoted the FSB as saying he was carrying a Taurus pistol, 5,000 euros, hidden-recording equipment and a document "that appeared to be an espionage assignment."

KAPO said Mr. Kohver, who was tasked with preventing cross-border criminal activity and the flow of contraband, has been decorated for unspecified services to Estonia.

The director general of KAPO, Arnold Sinisalu, told journalists in the Estonian capital that there were footprints coming from Russia and going back to Russia at the crime scene. He said there had been no similar incidents since the end of the Soviet Union in 1991.

KAPO officials said Russian border guards told them they knew nothing of the incident.

The Estonian Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador to Estonia Yuri Merzlyakov, seeking an explanation.

Foreign Minister Urmas Paet said the Estonian Embassy in Moscow is also in contact with the Russian Foreign Ministry.

"This is a very disturbing incident. We expect to receive the help and cooperation necessary from Russia in solving this case and bringing the Estonian citizen back to Estonia," Mr. Paet said.

The incident comes just two days after U.S. President Barack Obama visited Estonia to reassure the Baltic nation that its status as a NATO member would assure its border security.

Mr. Obama said he came "to reaffirm the commitment of the United States to the security of Estonia," and proposed an air base in the country as "an ideal location" for hosting a reinforced American military presence in the Baltic region.

Urmas Reinsalu, a former Estonian defense minister, told local media that the detention of the KAPO officer was "an attack against the Republic of Estonia to influence our fortitude."

Mr. Reinsalu said that Russia sought to demonstrate to the West "that we can do whatever we want in this corner of the world, and Obama's words have no collateral."

Estonians have grown nervous after the recent annexation by Russia of the Ukrainian region of Crimea and incursions by Russian troops into eastern Ukraine.

Estonia was occupied by the Soviet Union until 1991 and joined NATO 10 years ago.

Somehow the Russians seem to have a tendency of accidentally wandering across borders. Watch out katmai!
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Solmyr on September 05, 2014, 02:08:27 PM
But what if they wander across the border to Sarah Palin's house?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 05, 2014, 02:12:22 PM
Could Putin be starting to mess with Estonia already, or is this just an "in your face' to Pres Obama's visit? Or a bit of both!    :ph34r:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 05, 2014, 02:15:02 PM
Quote from: KRonn on September 05, 2014, 02:12:22 PM
Could Putin be starting to mess with Estonia already, or is this just an "in your face' to Pres Obama's visit? Or a bit of both!    :ph34r:

I think it's meant to be a big middle finger shown to Estonia/Obama. "DEAL WITH IT!"
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 05, 2014, 03:35:10 PM
The separatist groups are apparently saying they agree with "most" of the ceasefire terms but still insist on moving towards secession.  I say give them the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and try to stabilize the rest of the country. 
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Viking on September 05, 2014, 06:02:06 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 09:59:17 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.

Don't fuck with grumbler, he will out-lawyer you.  A is A.

that depends on the meaning of "Is"
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 05, 2014, 06:18:36 PM
Quote from: Viking on September 05, 2014, 06:02:06 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 09:59:17 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.

Don't fuck with grumbler, he will out-lawyer you.  A is A.

that depends on the meaning of "Is"

Islamic state?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 05, 2014, 06:27:55 PM
Your panicky opinion piece of the day--

Quote
www.foreignpolicy.com

Argument   

Putin's Nuclear Option
Would Russia's president really be willing to start World War III?


BY Jeffrey Tayler
SEPTEMBER 4, 2014

ver the one to administer bracing doses of Geopolitics 101 to his opponents, especially those inclined to underestimate his nerve, President Vladimir Putin, at a youth forum north of Moscow last week, reminded the world that "Russia is one of the most powerful nuclear nations. This is a reality, not just words." (Indeed it is.)

Fifteen days earlier, on Aug. 14, at a conference in Yalta, the Russian president had told the assembled factions of the State Duma that he soon planned to "surprise the West with our new developments in offensive nuclear weapons about which we do not talk yet." This came as Russian strategic nuclear bombers and fighter jets have been accused of violating the airspace of the United States and Western European countries with mounting frequency, while under the surface of the world's seas Russian and U.S. nuclear submarines have been involved in confrontations recalling the worst days of the Cold War. As NATO leaders convene for their summit in Wales, Russia just announced that its strategic nuclear forces will hold exercises of unprecedented dimensions this month. And the Kremlin, for its part, just declared that it will amend its military doctrine to reflect Russia's growing tensions with NATO. What this means exactly remains unclear, but in view of the rising tensions with the Western alliance, it cannot be good.

Russia has also been purportedly breaching the terms of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which prohibits Russia (and the United States) from possessing the sort of missiles that could be used against targets in Europe. If Barack Obama entered the White House hoping to reduce atomic weapons stockpiles and make the world a safer place, it looks like he will leave it with a Russia boasting a more lethal arsenal of nuclear weapons than at any time since the Cold War.

But Putin would never actually use nuclear weapons, would he? The scientist and longtime Putin critic Andrei Piontkovsky, a former executive director of the Strategic Studies Center in Moscow and a political commentator for the BBC World Service, believes he might. In August, Piontkovsky published a troubling account of what he believes Putin might do to win the current standoff with the West -- and, in one blow, destroy NATO as an organization and finish off what's left of America's credibility as the world's guardian of peace.

In view of the Russian leader's recent remarks and provocative actions, the scenario Piontkovsky lays out becomes terrifyingly relevant. Worse, if the trigger events described come to pass, it becomes logical, maybe even inevitable.

Piontkovsky explains the positions of the two camps presenting Putin with advice about how to resolve the Ukraine crisis. The first, the "Peace Party," as he calls it, composed of those occupying posts in influential think tanks, including, in this case, Sergey Karaganov, the head of Moscow's Higher School of Economics, urges Putin to declare victory in Ukraine now and thereby end the conflict. Having taken note of the lengths to which Moscow will go to prevent Ukraine from slipping out of its orbit, NATO will almost certainly never invite the former Soviet republic to join its ranks, the Peace Party argues. And Russia has already won tacit acceptance from the international community of its acquisition of Crimea.

Piontkovsky dismisses out of hand the possibility of Putin pursuing this solution. If Putin chose to go this route, he would look defeated, and looming before him would be the fate of Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, who was deposed and forced into retirement following his failed, and nearly catastrophic, 1962 attempt to secure communism in Cuba by stationing nuclear missiles there.

The other camp putting pressure on Putin, the "War Party," however, gives the president two options. The first, writes Piontkovsky, is a "romantic and inspiring scenario: World War IV between the Orthodox Russian World, now risen from its knees, against the rotting and decadent Anglo-Saxon World." (World War III, in his view, has already happened: the Cold War.) This World War IV would be a conventional war with NATO -- and it would not go well. Given NATO's superior armed forces and Russia's comparative economic, scientific, and technological weaknesses, a conventional campaign would, Piontkovsky concludes, end with Russia's defeat.

That leaves Putin only one option: a nuclear attack. Not a massive launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles at the United States or Western Europe, which would bring about a suicidal atomic holocaust, but a small, tactical strike or two against a NATO member that few in the West would be willing to die to protect. Piontkovsky surmises that, in such a conflict, the nuclear-armed country with the "superior political will" to alter the geopolitical "status quo" and -- most importantly -- with the "greater indifference to values concerning human lives" would prevail. Any guesses which country that would be?

But what would trigger a Russian attack? According to Piontkovsky's scenario, it could be something as simple as a plebiscite: the Estonian city of Narva, overwhelmingly ethnically Russian and adjacent to Russia, deciding to hold a referendum on joining the Motherland. To help them "freely express their will" at the polls, Russia could send in a brigade of "little green men armed to the teeth," much like it did in Crimea in March. Estonia would thereupon invoke Article 5 of the NATO charter -- "an armed attack against one or more [NATO members] ... shall be considered an attack against them all" -- and demand that the alliance defend it. Speaking in the Estonian capital of Tallinn on the eve of NATO's summit in Wales, this is just what Obama promised. "The defense of Tallinn and Riga and Vilnius is just as important as the defense of Berlin and Paris and London," he said.

Suddenly, the most terrifying nightmare becomes reality: NATO faces war with Russia.

How would Putin then react? Piontkovsky believes that NATO would balk at attacking Moscow over a small country remote from NATO's heartland and the hearts of its citizens. Piontkovsky imagines the course of action open to Nobel Peace Prize laureate Obama as he contemplates unleashing a planetary holocaust over a "damned little city no one has even heard of" while the American public cries out, "We don't want to die for fucking Narva, Mr. President!" Piontkovsky also cites a German public opinion poll asking what Berlin should do if Estonia enters an armed conflict with Russia: 70 percent would want their country to remain neutral.

Piontkovsky then tries to envision the situation in which Putin would find himself if NATO intervened to drive his little green men from Narva. Would Putin commit suicide by letting his missiles fly against the United States? No. Rather, he would respond with a limited nuclear strike against a couple of European capitals -- not London or Paris, but smaller ones, presumably in Eastern European countries that have only recently joined NATO. Warsaw, against which Russia has already conducted a drill simulating a Russian nuclear attack, first comes to mind. Or, say, Vilnius, Lithuania's capital. The point is, Putin would bet on decision-makers in Washington, Berlin, London, and Paris not retaliating with nuclear weapons against Russia if it had "only" hit a city or two most Westerners have barely heard of -- and certainly do not want to die for.

The outcome of Putin's putative gambit is that NATO effectively capitulates. The alliance's credibility as guarantor of security for its member states would be utterly destroyed, as would U.S. hegemony, which largely rests on the threat of using force. Putin would then be free to do what he wanted in Ukraine and anywhere else he perceived Russia's interests to be threatened.

It might all sound a bit far-fetched. On the surface, there are obvious reasons that Putin would not want to be the first to fire nuclear weapons at anyone, even his die-hard adversaries in NATO. It would be, to put it mildly, risky, and would irremediably besmirch his place, and Russia's, in history. The world would unite against him and could do more damage to the Russian economy, which is highly dependent on food imports and the export of hydrocarbons, than anyone now can imagine. And domestically, Russian anti-war sentiment is formidable. The Russian public has, throughout the crisis, adored Putin for standing up to the West and retaking Crimea, and it even supports Russia's arming the separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. But Russians have shown no appetite for direct military intervention, which is one reason the Kremlin repeatedly asserts that it has no troops or materiel on Ukrainian soil.

But it's worth remembering that since 2000 Russian nuclear doctrine has foreseen the deployment of battlefield nuclear weapons to de-escalate a conflict with NATO, if Russian forces were about to suffer defeat in a conventional conflict -- which shows that the Kremlin has already been betting that neither Obama nor the leaders of other nuclear powers would push the button if they could avoid it.

The Kremlin is probably right.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 05, 2014, 06:37:37 PM
It's not panicky, it brings up a good point.  I've never heard an argument articulated about how the West would be convinced to engage in a suicidal nuclear exchange over a local conflict.  So far the world has never engaged in a nuclear game of chicken, but it doesn't mean that there won't be one in the future.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 05, 2014, 06:38:16 PM
We need Judge Dredd. :wub:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 05, 2014, 06:40:33 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 05, 2014, 06:37:37 PM
It's not panicky, it brings up a good point.  I've never heard an argument articulated about how the West would be convinced to engage in a suicidal nuclear exchange over a local conflict.  So far the world has never engaged in a nuclear game of chicken, but it doesn't mean that there won't be one in the future.

I'm going to watch Crimson Tide tonight, right up to the point where Denzel Washington's character ruins it for everybody.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 05, 2014, 07:00:21 PM
As NATO thrown Ukraine under the Russian Bus?

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 05, 2014, 07:26:43 PM
What's going on here?

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.bbcimg.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F77405000%2Fjpg%2F_77405957_7fc2df35-8da7-48dd-b853-d6e94f1c8e20.jpg&hash=bcc2c616e895a216329137b0a6de125dab8f74b0)

Russian 300mm rocket barage?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tonitrus on September 05, 2014, 10:14:25 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 05, 2014, 06:37:37 PM
It's not panicky, it brings up a good point.  I've never heard an argument articulated about how the West would be convinced to engage in a suicidal nuclear exchange over a local conflict. So far the world has never engaged in a nuclear game of chicken, but it doesn't mean that there won't be one in the future.

Cuban Missile Crisis doesn't count?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 06, 2014, 12:40:10 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 05, 2014, 10:14:25 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 05, 2014, 06:37:37 PM
It's not panicky, it brings up a good point.  I've never heard an argument articulated about how the West would be convinced to engage in a suicidal nuclear exchange over a local conflict. So far the world has never engaged in a nuclear game of chicken, but it doesn't mean that there won't be one in the future.

Cuban Missile Crisis doesn't count?

Different premise as it was a direct confrontation  between US and USSR over Soviet missiles directly aimed at American soil.

This is more the scenario where the Kremlin calls Washington and informs them that they'll be using tactical nukes against a third party and please don't take it personal, because you're not involved.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Ideologue on September 06, 2014, 12:42:19 AM
Sounds reasonable.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Liep on September 06, 2014, 03:47:27 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 05, 2014, 06:40:33 PM
I'm going to watch Crimson Tide tonight, right up to the point where Denzel Washington's character ruins it for everybody.

It was on here last night. What really ruins that movie is the excessive sweating. And Gandolfini's sudden turn to creepy lunatic.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Viking on September 06, 2014, 03:56:46 AM
Quote from: mongers on September 05, 2014, 06:18:36 PM
Quote from: Viking on September 05, 2014, 06:02:06 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 04, 2014, 09:59:17 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 04, 2014, 06:39:42 AM
Which is not the point I was making. 911 was not the case of "defending a member state's territory". It was a case of a hostile terorrist action carried out in a member state's territory. Not the same thing.

Don't fuck with grumbler, he will out-lawyer you.  A is A.

that depends on the meaning of "Is"

Islamic state?

Well obviously Clinton was innocent then since his alleged blowjobs from monica were really planning sessions for cruise missiling al qaeda.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Sheilbh on September 06, 2014, 06:12:20 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 04, 2014, 09:22:07 AM
Baltics are a different story.  Still unikely, but not impossible some sort of indirect subversion type tactics could be attempted.
They've had plenty of that before. It's one of the reasons Estonia has a surprisingly effective intelligence agency which is almost all about dealing with Russian espionage/subversion.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 06, 2014, 12:17:54 PM
Totally minor stuff, but painting part of the Russian picture: Russian incursions into Danish airspace have been increasing rapidly in recent years: http://cphpost.dk/news/russians-increasingly-challenging-danish-airspace.10752.html
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 06, 2014, 06:22:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 06, 2014, 12:17:54 PM
Totally minor stuff, but painting part of the Russian picture: Russian incursions into Danish airspace have been increasing rapidly in recent years: http://cphpost.dk/news/russians-increasingly-challenging-danish-airspace.10752.html

They've been doing it in North American airspace as well.  It's not minor stuff at all.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 06, 2014, 07:53:34 PM
Channel 4 news correspondent in the Ukraine visited the recently recaptured Luhansk airport, from which Ukranian forces had been shelling the city. She said it was the worst damaged place she'd seen in E.Ukraine, indeed one of the most devastated places she'd ever seen. Went on to say, there was no way just the rebels could have done that amount of damage, said the Russians must have been responsible.

Looking at the torn, twisted and flattened airport buildings, I would be surprised if the Russians hadn't used thermobaric weapons on the Ukrainian positions.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 06, 2014, 10:07:16 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 06, 2014, 06:22:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 06, 2014, 12:17:54 PM
Totally minor stuff, but painting part of the Russian picture: Russian incursions into Danish airspace have been increasing rapidly in recent years: http://cphpost.dk/news/russians-increasingly-challenging-danish-airspace.10752.html

They've been doing it in North American airspace as well.  It's not minor stuff at all.

Yeah, I don't think so either, but I figured few people on Languish would treat anything that happens in Denmark as significant.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 06, 2014, 10:16:06 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 06, 2014, 10:07:16 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 06, 2014, 06:22:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 06, 2014, 12:17:54 PM
Totally minor stuff, but painting part of the Russian picture: Russian incursions into Danish airspace have been increasing rapidly in recent years: http://cphpost.dk/news/russians-increasingly-challenging-danish-airspace.10752.html

They've been doing it in North American airspace as well.  It's not minor stuff at all.

Yeah, I don't think so either, but I figured few people on Languish would treat anything that happens in Denmark as significant.

There's a joke involve a graveyard and a skull to be made there by cleverer people than me.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 06, 2014, 10:16:15 PM
Can't wait till they start beaching their subs again.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 06, 2014, 11:32:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 06, 2014, 10:16:15 PM
Can't wait till they start beaching their subs again.

Yeah. :wub:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Josquius on September 07, 2014, 03:09:37 AM
What is funny is that governments have only just woke up to the post Cold War world and begun readjusting militaries for the way wars are fought...in the 90s and 00s.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 07, 2014, 03:37:57 PM
Quote from: The Brain on September 06, 2014, 11:32:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 06, 2014, 10:16:15 PM
Can't wait till they start beaching their subs again.

Yeah. :wub:

He said "beaching"....  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 07, 2014, 03:44:08 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 07, 2014, 03:37:57 PM
Quote from: The Brain on September 06, 2014, 11:32:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 06, 2014, 10:16:15 PM
Can't wait till they start beaching their subs again.

Yeah. :wub:

He said "beaching"....  :rolleyes:

:(
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Grallon on September 07, 2014, 09:56:19 PM
Amusingly enough, 2 fighter jets flew over Downtown Montreal earlier today and for a minute I though things had really heated up with Russia and NORAD was scrambling with some kind of response.  :P



G.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 07, 2014, 10:08:35 PM
Could've have been Winnipeg Jets, those fly below Nashville.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2014, 12:22:44 AM
German FAZ has an article about Putin's new "blueprint" for conflict, based on the Gerasimov's 2013 speech, and a maneuver "Zapad" that took place the same year.

http://www.interpretermag.com/putins-actions-in-ukraine-following-script-by-russian-general-staff-a-year-ago/

About the speech:

QuotePutin's Actions in Ukraine Following Script by Russian General Staff a Year Ago

Staunton, June 18 – The strategy and tactics Vladimir Putin has been employing in Ukraine represent an amazingly precise implementation of ideas outlined and published by General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff more than a year ago, another indication that the Kremlin leader has not been acting extemporaneously in response to events.

That link is all the more important because it suggests that both the political and military leaderships of the Russian Federation have agreed upon this strategy, something that makes it more rather than less likely that the Kremlin will apply it elsewhere in the coming months and years.

At the end of January 2013, Gerasimov spoke the annual general meeting of the Russian Academy of Military Science on "The Role of the General Staff in the Organization of the Defense of the Country in Correspondence with the New Statute about the General Staff Confirmed by the President of the Russian Federation."

The full text of his remarks was published by the Academy and is available here [link is dead].

Presented in the form of a discussion of the lessons of recent conflicts in the Middle East, Gerasimov's speech in fact outlines his view about the emergence of a new kind of war in the 21st century, one in which the distinctions between war and peace and between uniformed personnel and covert operatives are continuously diminishing.

This combination, especially at a time when "wars are not declared but simply begin," Gerasimov told his audience, is very different than what most military thinkers traditionally have focused on but has the potential to transform "a completely well-off and stable country ... into an arena of the most intense armed conflict in a matter of months or even days."

In these new conflicts, "the very 'rules of war' have been fundamentally changed. The role of non-military means to achieve political and strategic goals has grown," and "in a number of cases," this combination has proved to be "significantly more effective" in comparison with what could have been achieved by military means alone.

In these wars of a new type, Gerasimov says, are "mixed together" a broad range of "political, economic, information, humanitarian and other measures," all of which are supplemented by covert and thus deniable military measures plus offers of peace-keeping assistance as a means to strategic ends.

"New information technologies," the general continues, permit a significant reduction in the spatial, temporal, and information gap between the forces and organs of administration." And they also mean that "frontal clashes of major military formations ... are gradually receding into the past."

All this also means, Gerasimov says, that the customary "distinctions between strategic, operational and tactical levels and between offensive and defensive operations are being wiped out." That is something that Russian military theorists and planners must take into ever greater account.

"Asymmetric methods" also have the capacity to "level the playing field" against an opponent who may enjoy local superiority. Such methods include but are not limited to the use of special operations forces and the recruitment and mobilization of opposition groups on the territory of one's opponent to make his entire country "a front" in the conflict.

The United States, Gerasimov says, has shown the way in this kind of new war beginning with Desert Storm in 1991, but the Russian general suggests that Russian military theorists and planners can draw on the record of partisan warfare during World War II, the use of irregular forces during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, and more recent operations in the North Caucasus.

It does not require any leap of faith to see how what Vladimir Putin has been doing in Ukraine reflects exactly Gerasimov's set of assumptions about how best to conduct such wars of a new type.


About the maneuver:

http://www.worldreview.info/content/war-games-threaten-rock-russia-and-eu-relations

QuoteWar games threaten to rock Russia and EU relations

NATO MILITARY forces are preparing to conduct Steadfast Jazz - large-scale manoeuvres in the Baltic region designed, in part, to counter growing concerns of Russia's military westward encroachment.

However, Russia's Zapad-13 military exercise held with Belarus in September 2013, has already generated apprehension among the Baltic nations. The former-Soviet states see Russia's Zapad war games with land, air and sea equipment and missile strikes, as demonstrating an anti-West agenda and not, as Moscow described it, as an anti-terrorism exercise.

The Zapad manouevres were held close to the borders of former Soviet states Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The three Baltic Nato states claim Russia was practising armed invasion of their territories.

These war games come at a time when the European Union is set to forge alliances with several of Russia's neighbours – those with whom Moscow wants to embrace into its own Eurasian Union.

Zapad-2013 formed part of the normal annual rotation between the four Russian military commands.

Nato was informed in advance that some 22,500 troops would be involved. The games were testing new systems of command and control and practicing joint operations against a backdrop of terrorists that had invaded Belarus and retreated into urban areas.

But outside observers were disturbed to record that together with the Zapad-2013 war games, a whole range of other drills had been conducted, from the Arctic in the north to Voronezh in south-western Russia, close to the border with Ukraine.

They had involved all aspects of the Russian armed forces, ranging from army, navy and air forces, to Spetsnaz special forces, Interior Ministry Troops and engineering forces.

The drills had featured SU-25 (Frogfoot) and SU-30 (Flanker) strike aircraft, as well as heavy Mi-24 (Hind) helicopter gunships. And they had involved firing of ship-to-shore missiles from units of the Baltic Fleet, in support of an amphibious landing.

Some estimates suggest that a total of 70,000 troops were involved, including 20,000 paramilitary Interior Ministry troops. Analysts concluded it was difficult to see the link to simply defeating terrorists.

The exercise also featured live firing of the Iskander SS-26 theatre ballistic missile, which is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. With a reach of 400 kilometres, the Iskander has formed an important part in the standoff between Russia and Nato over US plans to deploy missile defence in Europe.

Russia's military presence in the Baltic region has been increased to 100,000 troops, from only 16,000 in 2009. Russia is opening an airforce base in Belarus, close to the borders of Poland and Lithuania. It will be the first Russian military base in Europe since 1991 and will be home to SU-27 (Flanker) fighter jets.

It is also significant that in conjunction with the Zapad-2013 war games, all components of the Russian nuclear triad – submarines, strategic bombers and land-based rocket forces – were placed on alert.

The message from the Kremlin is that Russia is back as a military power. And a raised military posture towards the West emphasises that Nato is seen as the main enemy.

Nato's exercise, Steadfast Jazz, will be held on the territories of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland on November 2-9, 2013.

Some 6,000 military personnel from 20 allied and partner nations will be involved, and the scenario is to repel military aggression against member states. It will be the first time since 1993 that the alliance conducts drills according to Article 5, calling for collective defence. There can be little doubt that Nato's message is that it stands ready to repel a Russian invasion.

The official motivation for the exercise is to drill and certify Nato's Response Force (NRF). It includes 13,000 personnel that are ready to respond within five days In 2014, the NRF will be under command by Nato Joint Force Command in the Netherlands.

Russia, has condemned the 'Cold War' spirit of the upcoming Nato exercise. Moscow will be particularly enraged that Ukraine will send an amphibious company to fight alongside Nato.

Russia's strategic behaviour is both clear and consistent, aiming to return Russia to a position of global influence and respect. By holding up Nato as an enemy, the Kremlin seeks to rally the nation around its leadership and to rationalise spending massive sums on rearmament.

By projecting military force, it supports its project of Eurasian integration, intimidating countries like Ukraine which have voiced interest in joining - not with Russia - but with the European Union.

FAZ says that officially Zapad was declared as repelling an attack of insurgents (Lithuanians uprising against the government and reinforced from abroad to "protect their countrymen") against Belarus. Could it be that the insurgents were the "good guys" in this case?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2014, 12:45:42 AM
Haven't read the last six or so pages.

According to David Gergen the US accounts for 75% of NATO spending.

If he meant of the countries that are in NATO, the US accounts for 75% of aggregate defense spending, it's pretty unremarkable.  But if he meant of the military assets that are earmarked for NATO, the US pays for 75% of them, that's not good.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 08, 2014, 08:43:25 AM
QuoteBut what would trigger a Russian attack? According to Piontkovsky's scenario, it could be something as simple as a plebiscite: the Estonian city of Narva, overwhelmingly ethnically Russian and adjacent to Russia, deciding to hold a referendum on joining the Motherland. To help them "freely express their will" at the polls, Russia could send in a brigade of "little green men armed to the teeth," much like it did in Crimea in March. Estonia would thereupon invoke Article 5 of the NATO charter -- "an armed attack against one or more [NATO members] ... shall be considered an attack against them all" -- and demand that the alliance defend it. Speaking in the Estonian capital of Tallinn on the eve of NATO's summit in Wales, this is just what Obama promised. "The defense of Tallinn and Riga and Vilnius is just as important as the defense of Berlin and Paris and London," he said.
Suddenly, the most terrifying nightmare becomes reality: NATO faces war with Russia. 

Yep, what will NATO actually do? Getting these nations into the alliance is all well and good, until the shooting starts. I'd be all for NATO reacting to help Estonia but will NATO decide it's not worth a possible larger war between Russia and NATO for one city or small region?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 08, 2014, 08:48:47 AM
Quote from: KRonn on September 08, 2014, 08:43:25 AM
QuoteBut what would trigger a Russian attack? According to Piontkovsky's scenario, it could be something as simple as a plebiscite: the Estonian city of Narva, overwhelmingly ethnically Russian and adjacent to Russia, deciding to hold a referendum on joining the Motherland. To help them "freely express their will" at the polls, Russia could send in a brigade of "little green men armed to the teeth," much like it did in Crimea in March. Estonia would thereupon invoke Article 5 of the NATO charter -- "an armed attack against one or more [NATO members] ... shall be considered an attack against them all" -- and demand that the alliance defend it. Speaking in the Estonian capital of Tallinn on the eve of NATO's summit in Wales, this is just what Obama promised. "The defense of Tallinn and Riga and Vilnius is just as important as the defense of Berlin and Paris and London," he said.
Suddenly, the most terrifying nightmare becomes reality: NATO faces war with Russia. 

Yep, what will NATO actually do? Getting these nations into the alliance is all well and good, until the shooting starts. I'd be all for NATO reacting to help Estonia but will NATO decide it's not worth a possible larger war between Russia and NATO for one city or small region?

They might decide it, but it will be the end of NATO as we know it. Countries like Romania, who has a history of swift (and very skilful) cloak-changes for example would probably realise the alliance would do even less for them, and suck up to Russia. Hungary is already sucking up to Russia so they would be happy to jump camp after such an excuse.

And I think the Russian study is right that it is fairly easy to ruin relatively stable countries this way: a determined NATO response against Narva would surely defeat the "separatists" and I don't think Russia would press the matter that much seeing a strong NATO response, but it would involve stuff like city fighting and artillery shelling in Estonia, with NATO inflicting civilian casualties in a fight against what Russian (and European radical) propaganda will label as dissatisfied EU citizens.

That's why I am afraid they will try it: they cannot really lose.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 08, 2014, 08:55:28 AM
Quote from: mongers on September 06, 2014, 07:53:34 PM
Channel 4 news correspondent in the Ukraine visited the recently recaptured Luhansk airport, from which Ukranian forces had been shelling the city. She said it was the worst damaged place she'd seen in E.Ukraine, indeed one of the most devastated places she'd ever seen. Went on to say, there was no way just the rebels could have done that amount of damage, said the Russians must have been responsible.

Looking at the torn, twisted and flattened airport buildings, I would be surprised if the Russians hadn't used thermobaric weapons on the Ukrainian positions.

Yeah, they brought the house on that one.  Here's the video for anyone else who wants to see it: http://blogs.channel4.com/lindsey-hilsum-on-international-affairs/shards-rubble-luhansk-airport/4419
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2014, 08:58:49 AM
The problem is, if they held a referendum in such a city that has even the slightest appearance of legitimacy, there'd be a lot of people in the West clamoring for NATO to stay out and "respect the will of the people."
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 08, 2014, 09:19:50 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 08, 2014, 08:58:49 AM
The problem is, if they held a referendum in such a city that has even the slightest appearance of legitimacy, there'd be a lot of people in the West clamoring for NATO to stay out and "respect the will of the people."

That may be the out, or solid reasoning and a bit of a face saving for NATO, but if it's seen more clearly that Russia is meddling as they did in Ukraine then I would hope NATO nations have the stomach to support an ally against Russia, especially since it would show the alliance is a paper tiger. Alliances can become quite tangled though, often leading to unforseen circumstances. This is what I had in mind in some of my earlier posts about how Putin could try and get away with meddling in the Baltic states.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 08, 2014, 09:21:09 AM
Quote from: KRonn on September 08, 2014, 09:19:50 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 08, 2014, 08:58:49 AM
The problem is, if they held a referendum in such a city that has even the slightest appearance of legitimacy, there'd be a lot of people in the West clamoring for NATO to stay out and "respect the will of the people."

That may be the out, or solid reasoning and a bit of a face saving for NATO, but if it's seen more clearly that Russia is meddling as they did in Ukraine then I would hope NATO nations have the stomach to support an ally against Russia, especially since it would show the alliance is a paper tiger. Alliances can become quite tangled though, often leading to unforseen circumstances. This is what I had in mind in some of my earlier posts about how Putin could try and get away with meddling in the Baltic states.

Oh boy, an internationally accepted referendum on a city's/region's change of countries. That is a BIG can of worms.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 09:21:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 07, 2014, 10:08:35 PM
Could've have been Winnipeg Jets, those fly below Nashville.

You assholes, that was a great gag. :mad:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 09:59:57 AM
Apparently, there was an article in recent Foreign Policy about Putin nuking Warsaw. Or at least that's how the Polish media are reporting that. Any traction to the story?  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 08, 2014, 10:08:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 08, 2014, 09:21:09 AM
Oh boy, an internationally accepted referendum on a city's/region's change of countries. That is a BIG can of worms.

One would think that at that point, the PRC would finally wake up and see what hugely problematic precedents their new Russian allies are creating for them.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 08, 2014, 10:09:37 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 09:21:33 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 07, 2014, 10:08:35 PM
Could've have been Winnipeg Jets, those fly below Nashville.

You assholes, that was a great gag. :mad:

hokey
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2014, 10:12:11 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 09:59:57 AM
Apparently, there was an article in recent Foreign Policy about Putin nuking Warsaw. Or at least that's how the Polish media are reporting that. Any traction to the story?  :ph34r:

I have one from 2009: http://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,11775.msg777123.html#msg777123
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 08, 2014, 10:15:21 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 08, 2014, 10:08:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 08, 2014, 09:21:09 AM
Oh boy, an internationally accepted referendum on a city's/region's change of countries. That is a BIG can of worms.

One would think that at that point, the PRC would finally wake up and see what hugely problematic precedents their new Russian allies are creating for them.

I had the gazillion border disputes in Eastern Europe in mind mostly.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 08, 2014, 10:19:00 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 08, 2014, 10:08:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 08, 2014, 09:21:09 AM
Oh boy, an internationally accepted referendum on a city's/region's change of countries. That is a BIG can of worms.

One would think that at that point, the PRC would finally wake up and see what hugely problematic precedents their new Russian allies are creating for them.
I hope they would wake up and finally notice all the cruel oppression Chinese immigrants in Siberia are subjected to.  :whistle:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 10:28:45 AM
Here it is - although it's a blog entry, not an article, it seems:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/05/a_boy_and_his_toys_putin_nuclear_weapons_ukraine_russia_nato?utm_content=buffer199c0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 08, 2014, 10:47:48 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 09:59:57 AM
Apparently, there was an article in recent Foreign Policy about Putin nuking Warsaw. Or at least that's how the Polish media are reporting that. Any traction to the story?  :ph34r:

You're in a better position than us to know. Was Warsaw nuked?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Alcibiades on September 08, 2014, 11:05:36 AM
The world would be a better place, don't tease.  :(
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2014, 12:34:25 PM
http://rt.com/business/185924-sanctions-eu-oil-airspace-medvedev/

QuoteIf new EU sanctions hit energy sector, Russia may close airspace - Medvedev

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has warned Russia may shut its air corridors to Western airlines if the next round of European sanctions hit Russian energy companies.

"If there are sanctions related to the energy sector, or further restrictions on Russia's financial sector, we will have to respond asymmetrically," Medvedev said in an interview with the Vedomosti newspaper, published on Monday.

EU ministers will gather on Monday to discuss new sanctions against Russia and are rumored to be introduced on Tuesday. The prime minister promised a strong retaliation if the West slaps Russia with more sanctions.

"We could impose transport restrictions," Medvedev said, adding, "We believe we have friendly relations with our partners, and foreign airlines of friendly countries are permitted to fly over Russia. However, we'll have to respond to any restrictions imposed on us," the prime minister said.

After sanctions hit Aeroflot's low-cost subsidiary Dobrolet in late July, Medvedev discussed with ministers the possibility of limiting, of even completely blocking, European flights to Asia that overfly Russia.

"If Western carriers have to bypass our airspace, this could drive many struggling airlines into bankruptcy. This is not the way to go. We just hope our partners realize this at some point," he told Vedomosti.

Flying over Russian airspace saves Western airlines headed to Asia at least 4 hours of flight time, which adds up to about $30,000 per flight.

Lufthansa said it could potentially lose more than €1 billion in three months if it does not use Russian airspace. Lufthansa, along with British Airways and Air France, are the largest EU airlines. US airlines currently don't operate over Siberian airspace.

Many low-cost airlines have decided not to launch new routes to Russia, with the threat of sanctions possibly a factor. Last week Ryanair ditched plans to establish a Dublin-St. Petersburg route, and easyJet, another European-based airline, dropped its plans to develop a London-St. Petersburg service.

Medvedev didn't specify whether the blocked airspace would also apply to cargo and delivery companies, such as UPS and FedEx.

Oil at stake

EU sanctions, which will reportedly be introduced on Tuesday, will ban Russia's three main oil companies- Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Transneft - from raising long-term (longer than 30 days) debt on European capital markets, according to the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times.

Rosneft - Russia's largest oil producer - was added to the US sanctions list on July 16 and was put on the EU list on July 29. Russia's largest independent natural gas producer, Novatek, also was added to the blacklist in July, along with a ban on the export of hi-tech oil equipment needed in Arctic, deep sea, and shale extraction projects to Russia.
Gazprom Neft is the oil subsidiary of Russian gas giant Gazprom.

Transneft is Russia's state-owned oil pipeline company that exports all of Rosneft's crude oil, and 56 percent of Russia's crude exports.

Sanctions likely won't apply to privately-owned Russian oil groups such as Lukoil and Surgutneftegaz.

The EU will also reportedly follow America's lead on banning goods that can have dual military and civilian use from Russian companies that also supply the Russian military, the WSJ reported Sunday. On July 16, the US blacklisted several defense sector companies include Almaz-Antey Corporation, the Kalashnikov Concern and Instrument Design Bureau, as well as companies such as Izhmash, Basalt, and Uralvagonzavod.

"Sanctions are always a double-edged sword. Ultimately they end up backfiring and end up hurting those who are first to impose restrictions," Medvedev said.

The EU has agreed on the new sanctions but said they could be delayed or even cancelled if Russia shows willingness to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

On Friday Kiev introduced a ceasefire to calm fighting between the Ukrainian army and anti-government forces, but fighting and shelling continued in the country's east.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 08, 2014, 01:04:37 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 08, 2014, 10:47:48 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 09:59:57 AM
Apparently, there was an article in recent Foreign Policy about Putin nuking Warsaw. Or at least that's how the Polish media are reporting that. Any traction to the story?  :ph34r:

You're in a better position than us to know. Was Warsaw nuked?

Yes.  Yes it was.  Many times.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FM6E26u7.jpg&hash=6e78a6b3ec76229324f1e4b6fdef71d86eac9341)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Barrister on September 08, 2014, 01:07:24 PM
Twilight: 2000. :wub:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 01:07:51 PM
Good times.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip. 
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 08, 2014, 01:10:03 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

:rust: ?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 08, 2014, 01:12:13 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip. 

I was going to say you might not have to broach the topic, but then I realized I never dealt with Russians professionally.  Do they do a good job of avoiding iffy topics in the workplace?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 01:14:29 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict.

Like the way they always see everything: through the prism of nationalism-fueled, conspiracy-laden misinformation.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:16:06 PM
Quote from: The Brain on September 08, 2014, 01:10:03 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

:rust: ?
I expect to land at Domededovo, not the Red Square. Red Square would obviously be much cooler... :thumbsdown:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:17:16 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 08, 2014, 01:12:13 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip. 

I was going to say you might not have to broach the topic, but then I realized I never dealt with Russians professionally.  Do they do a good job of avoiding iffy topics in the workplace?
Well, one of my colleagues opted out of the trip due to the "uncertain political situation", so I guess they'll at least wonder why he won't join the workshop. ;)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:18:23 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 01:14:29 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict.

Like the way they always see everything: through the prism of nationalism-fueled, conspiracy-laden misinformation.
Let's see. I was in South Korea last year when Kim Jong-Un made new threats that got a lot of press in Western media and the South Koreans just shrugged and were not concerned at all.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 01:24:26 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:18:23 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 01:14:29 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict.

Like the way they always see everything: through the prism of nationalism-fueled, conspiracy-laden misinformation.
Let's see. I was in South Korea last year when Kim Jong-Un made new threats that got a lot of press in Western media and the South Koreans just shrugged and were not concerned at all.

South Koreans have dealt with that bluster since the 1950s.  Of course it's old hat to them.  And they're an educated, modern society with the benefit of a media that doesn't end in .ru.

Russians, on the other hand, are a dirty, backwards people.  Combine that with a rediscovery of post-Soviet relevance, I suspect they're a bit more excitable than South Koreans these days.  Things Are Turning Up Putin!
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 08, 2014, 01:24:54 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 01:14:29 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict.

Like the way they always see everything: through the prism of nationalism-fueled, conspiracy-laden misinformation.
:yes: The fucked-in-the-head factor is very high there, even among the educated and Putin-hating Russians.  You will not get through their thick skulls to even set the basic facts straight, so for your sake and their sake, I just wouldn't even bring it up.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 08, 2014, 01:30:53 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:17:16 PM
Well, one of my colleagues opted out of the trip due to the "uncertain political situation", so I guess they'll at least wonder why he won't join the workshop. ;)

You might say "uncertain political situation" and they'll sympathetically agree that it's too bad that Western foolishness is hampering business.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 01:31:40 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 01:33:11 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 08, 2014, 01:30:53 PM
and they'll sympathetically agree that it's too bad that Western foolishness is hampering business.

Yeah, that's what Legal would say whenever we wanted to do something about the PLA hammering away at our power grid.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 01:34:16 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 08, 2014, 01:12:13 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip. 

I was going to say you might not have to broach the topic, but then I realized I never dealt with Russians professionally.  Do they do a good job of avoiding iffy topics in the workplace?

Well, if you remember, about a year ago I considered whether I should or should not go to a "Polish-Russian Legal Day" in Moscow, on account of gays and all. I ended up not going simply by omission.  :blush:

Now, some genius from Poland sent an email whether we should have a new one. The responses from the Russians were politely cool "in light of the various issues on both sides." But then, if you consider Magnitsky, I think they know well enough not to rock the boat.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 08, 2014, 01:36:55 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 08, 2014, 01:24:54 PM
You will not get through their thick skulls to even set the basic facts straight, so for your sake and their sake, I just wouldn't even bring it up.

He doesn't have to argue with them, though I guess if he brings it up they might ask him for his take.  In which case he could still be vague or even deferential. 
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:38:03 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 08, 2014, 01:36:55 PM
He doesn't have to argue with them, though I guess if he brings it up they might ask him for his take.  In which case he could still be vague or even deferential.
I could mention that my grandfather fought in the Donezk area with the 123rd Wehrmacht infantry to add a personal note.  :P
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 08, 2014, 01:39:02 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 08, 2014, 08:48:47 AM
They might decide it, but it will be the end of NATO as we know it. Countries like Romania, who has a history of swift (and very skilful) cloak-changes for example would probably realise the alliance would do even less for them, and suck up to Russia. Hungary is already sucking up to Russia so they would be happy to jump camp after such an excuse.

And I think the Russian study is right that it is fairly easy to ruin relatively stable countries this way: a determined NATO response against Narva would surely defeat the "separatists" and I don't think Russia would press the matter that much seeing a strong NATO response, but it would involve stuff like city fighting and artillery shelling in Estonia, with NATO inflicting civilian casualties in a fight against what Russian (and European radical) propaganda will label as dissatisfied EU citizens.

That's why I am afraid they will try it: they cannot really lose.

The scenario you describe would be a catastrophic Russian defeat.  Having Rumania and/or Hungary bolt NATO (and the EU as a necessary consequence) and latch on to the struggling Russian economy would add a pair of anchors to an already struggling swimmer.  Russia couldn't afford to abandon them for political reasons and couldn't afford to sustain them for economic reasons; all they will do is pull Russian down with them.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 08, 2014, 01:39:51 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:38:03 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 08, 2014, 01:36:55 PM
He doesn't have to argue with them, though I guess if he brings it up they might ask him for his take.  In which case he could still be vague or even deferential.
I could mention that my grandfather fought in the Donezk area with the 123rd Wehrmacht infantry to add a personal note.  :P

"Take it from someone who learned the hard way: don't launch an offensive shortly before the muddy season!"
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 01:41:21 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:38:03 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 08, 2014, 01:36:55 PM
He doesn't have to argue with them, though I guess if he brings it up they might ask him for his take.  In which case he could still be vague or even deferential.
I could mention that my grandfather fought in the Donezk area with the 123rd Wehrmacht infantry to add a personal note.  :P

Oh yeah, that'll go over well.  :lol: LETS GO THERE AND TAKE SELFIES
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: KRonn on September 08, 2014, 01:49:33 PM
So with a "ceasefire" in place in Ukraine, and Russian troops occupying areas in the southeast, I figure that means those areas will never be relinquished by Russia. Same as Crimea, they'll become a part of Mutha Russia. Just remains to be seen how far Putin pushes things, such as if he claims the Ukrainians violate the ceasefire then he'll  act like he has a free hand to take more land. 
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Sheilbh on September 08, 2014, 05:04:06 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 08, 2014, 10:08:47 AMOne would think that at that point, the PRC would finally wake up and see what hugely problematic precedents their new Russian allies are creating for them.
Indeed. Can Putin totally isolate Russia and survive?

QuoteJust booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip. 
I never broach any controversial topics on holiday. If they bring it up I smile, say 'well, quite' and move on. But then I barely broach controversial topics among close friends and family.

Marti, what's the latest on the Smolensk conspiracy theories? Just...wondering...:mellow:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Valmy on September 08, 2014, 05:12:58 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 01:31:40 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time?  :hmm:

Poland is not going to partition itself.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: citizen k on September 08, 2014, 06:46:32 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 08, 2014, 05:12:58 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 01:31:40 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time?  :hmm:

Poland is not going to partition itself.

Zanza von Ribbentrop?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 06:51:25 PM
US Ambassador jumps with Polish airborne troops.  Gene Hackman nowhere to be seen relieving Arnhem.

http://www.aplatestnews.com/usnewsvideo.php?vidtype=1&idx=us-ambassador-skydives-with-polish-troops-2014-09-08

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 08, 2014, 06:55:30 PM
Hey, how many Poles does it take to make an airborne drop?
Three: two to row the boat, and one to toss the ring buoy  nywk, nywk, nywk
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Ed Anger on September 08, 2014, 07:51:46 PM
I laughed
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2014, 08:07:57 PM
You're a very jolly fellow.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 09, 2014, 12:25:30 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 08, 2014, 05:04:06 PM
Marti, what's the latest on the Smolensk conspiracy theories? Just...wondering...:mellow:

The thing is in stalemate, with the pro-PiS side going "See, we told you", and the rest being quite relieved that Poland is not ruled by the Kaczynski brothers right now, as otherwise we would probably be launching our "False Putin" expedition into Russia.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 09, 2014, 04:01:20 AM
 :lol:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 09, 2014, 09:10:49 AM
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/748714

QuoteDuma speaker urges West not to toe U.S. anti-Russian line
   
MOSCOW, September 9 ./ITAR-TASS/. The leader of Russia's lower house of parliament warned the West on Tuesday against taking the lead from Washington on events in Ukraine.

Speaking at a Russia-Japan forum eyeing points of contact, State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin said Western countries and other Russian partners opting for sanctions had simply backed aggressive U.S. policy. Sanctions broke the hard-won pattern of global economic relations, he said.

"Imposed sanctions triggered violence [in Ukraine] instead of reducing it as the Kiev authorities took them as a reason for boosting their punitive operation in the southeast of the country, resulting in new destruction and numerous casualties," Naryshkin said.

"Even now, when the negotiating process has been resumed and a ceasefire introduced, the situation remains extremely difficult," he added, assessing, however, that common sense would prevail.

"It is high time for our partners to use their brains," Naryshkin said. "Those in power in Washington are hardly capable of that but I believe our other partners should distance themselves from that aggressive policy and think at last that they are sovereign states."

Parliamentarians were disappointed when Japan imposed sanctions against Russia, he said. "Any unbiased onlooker can clearly see that anti-Russian attacks are now co-ordinated in fact from one center, and this center is separated from Russia and Japan by the ocean."

Russia and Japan knew well how difficult it was to build an atmosphere of trust and how painful a lull in co-operation could be, the speaker said, noting that sanctions are an instrument of open and political blackmail unsupported by judicial or United Nations decisions.

"Sanctions, of course, largely violate and sometimes simply break the pattern of international economic relations that need decades to be shaped," Naryshkin said. "Negative effects of sanctions hit directly those who were compelled to impose them," he said.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 09, 2014, 09:12:19 AM
This, incidentally, is the same guy who was feted just last week by the cheese eating surrender monkeys from the Elysee.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 09, 2014, 09:26:40 AM
Whatever our problems in the US, thank God we're not dependent upon Gazprom.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 09, 2014, 10:15:02 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 09, 2014, 09:26:40 AM
Whatever our problems in the US, thank God we're not dependent upon Gazprom.

Lulz, at least BP and Exxon Mobil just rape the environment.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 09, 2014, 10:23:56 AM
I better never tell Marti I'm 25% French.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Ed Anger on September 09, 2014, 10:45:31 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 09, 2014, 10:23:56 AM
I better never tell Marti I'm 25% French.

Disgusting.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Valmy on September 09, 2014, 11:11:29 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 09, 2014, 09:26:40 AM
Whatever our problems in the US, thank God we're not dependent upon Gazprom.

The French are one of the few European nations who are not right?  With all of their nukes.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2014, 12:39:50 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 09, 2014, 09:12:19 AM
This, incidentally, is the same guy who was feted just last week by the cheese eating surrender monkeys from the Elysee.

Not that Martinus cares about facts or may understand them, others may though, but actually the Elysee (sic) means the presidential palace where he was nowhere to be seen. Instead, he met the so-called pro-Russia lobby last week : Association Dialogue franco-russe

http://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2014/09/03/la-tres-discrete-visite-parisienne-du-president-de-la-douma-russe_4480963_3210.html?xtmc=russie&xtcr=3 (http://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2014/09/03/la-tres-discrete-visite-parisienne-du-president-de-la-douma-russe_4480963_3210.html?xtmc=russie&xtcr=3)

http://www.la-croix.com/Actualite/Monde/Quand-une-dizaine-de-parlementaires-francais-affichent-leur-Poutinophilie-a-Paris-2014-09-04-1201162 (http://www.la-croix.com/Actualite/Monde/Quand-une-dizaine-de-parlementaires-francais-affichent-leur-Poutinophilie-a-Paris-2014-09-04-1201162)
From a catholic newspaper, specially for Martinus. :) This link is even more critical of the event than Le Monde. I believe Martinus should understand poutinophilie. Hint: no link with Québec.

QuoteLe président de la Douma, la chambre basse du Parlement russe, Sergueï Narychkine, voyage volontiers et, francophone, aime venir à Paris. Depuis le 21 mars, cependant, ça lui est difficile : ce jour-là, le Conseil européen a ajouté douze noms, dont le sien, à la liste des personnalités russes frappées par des sanctions individuelles à la suite de l'annexion de la Crimée. M. Narychkine, un proche du président Poutine, est désormais interdit de séjour dans l'UE et ses avoirs, s'il en a, y sont gelés.

Que faisait alors M. Narychkine, les 1er et 2 septembre, à Paris ? Lundi, le site officiel de la Douma l'annonce « en visite de travail dans la République française » et affiche une photo du dirigeant russe accueilli à sa descente d'un avion gouvernemental russe. A Paris, il devait, précise la Douma, « rencontrer des parlementaires et des hommes d'affaires ».

Le responsable russe, finira par expliquer le Quai d'Orsay, a été invité par l'Assemblée parlementaire du Conseil de l'Europe (APCE). En tant que pays siège d'une organisation internationale, la France avait donc l'obligation d'autoriser sa présence sur le territoire national – comme elle l'avait d'ailleurs déjà fait le 14 avril, lorsque M. Narychkine avait jugé indispensable de venir célébrer le 60e anniversaire de l'adhésion de l'URSS à l'Unesco, dont le siège est à Paris. Aucune rencontre avec des responsables gouvernementaux français n'a eu lieu.

So, invited by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (nice loophole), Naryshkyn met some 10 French mps from left to right (the usual pro-Putin suspects). No Élysée (proper spelling). A discreet visit, not a State visit.

PS : he was also invited back in 2013 by the President of the French Assemblée nationale, Claude Bartolone, a kind of counterpart for Naryshkin. Guess all French state buildings look alike to Martinus. :D
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Caliga on September 09, 2014, 12:43:44 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 09, 2014, 10:45:31 AM
Quote from: celedhring on September 09, 2014, 10:23:56 AM
I better never tell Marti I'm 25% French.

Disgusting.
:Embarrass:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Syt on September 09, 2014, 12:54:40 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 09, 2014, 12:39:50 PMParliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe

I've seen this pop up in Russian news aplenty during the crisis (esp. when the assembly suspended Russia's membership); it appears that they are the only ones giving a shit about it.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 09, 2014, 02:41:47 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 09, 2014, 11:11:29 AM
Quote from: derspiess on September 09, 2014, 09:26:40 AM
Whatever our problems in the US, thank God we're not dependent upon Gazprom.

The French are one of the few European nations who are not right?  With all of their nukes.

I wouldn't really say few.

Percent of gas consumption that comes from Russia:

     Estonia 100%
     Finland 100%
     Latvia 100%
     Lithuania 100%
     Slovakia 98%
     Bulgaria 92%
     Czech Republic 77.6%
     Greece 76%
     Hungary 60%
     Slovenia 52%
     Austria 49%
     Poland 48.15%
     Croatia 37%
     Germany 36%
     Italy 27%
     Romania 27%
     France 14%
     Belgium 5%

     Republic of Macedonia 100%
     Belarus 98%
     Serbia,  Montenegro 87%
     Ukraine 66%
     Turkey 64%
     Switzerland 12%




So, west of Germany not so much. No Netherlands, UK, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Sweden, Norway on the list at all. They have the iron curtain locked down though.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Zanza on September 09, 2014, 03:00:18 PM
I read that Germany could actually buy its gas elsewhere if necessary, but there is no way that all of Central Europe could do that. Just imagine the outcry in the other countries if Germany would start buying its gas elsewhere and leave Poland etc. hanging.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 09, 2014, 03:00:27 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 09, 2014, 10:23:56 AM
I better never tell Marti I'm 25% French.
The monkey part?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 09, 2014, 03:07:07 PM
I'm thinking of retitling the thread, so shall I remove the "-", add a "15", add some other higher 'teen' ,  insert "infinity" or still leave it open ended ?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 09, 2014, 03:15:06 PM
Yes.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 09, 2014, 03:17:45 PM
No.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on September 09, 2014, 03:18:10 PM
42
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 09, 2014, 03:20:03 PM
Way to go Speesh.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: Savonarola on September 09, 2014, 03:22:22 PM
"Teen Infinity" would be a good name for a youth oriented clothing shop; maybe one that catered to "Twilight's" sparkly vampires
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: Zanza on September 09, 2014, 03:22:31 PM
It will be over by Christmas!
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: mongers on September 09, 2014, 03:24:06 PM
Quote from: Savonarola on September 09, 2014, 03:22:22 PM
"Teen Infinity" would be a good name for a youth oriented clothing shop; maybe one that catered to "Twilight's" sparkly vampires

It's yours, my belated wedding gift, you and CB could have a radical career change, make a fortune out of bad-taste Florida teens.  :D
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: Jacob on September 09, 2014, 03:25:10 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 09, 2014, 03:22:31 PM
It will be over by Christmas!

The real question is, which Christmas?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 09, 2014, 03:27:39 PM
Quote from: grumbler on September 09, 2014, 03:00:27 PM
Quote from: celedhring on September 09, 2014, 10:23:56 AM
I better never tell Marti I'm 25% French.
The monkey part?

I'm not good at flinging poo.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: Savonarola on September 09, 2014, 03:30:10 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 09, 2014, 03:24:06 PM
Quote from: Savonarola on September 09, 2014, 03:22:22 PM
"Teen Infinity" would be a good name for a youth oriented clothing shop; maybe one that catered to "Twilight's" sparkly vampires

It's yours, my belated wedding gift, you and CB could have a radical career change, make a fortune out of bad-taste Florida teens.  :D

Thanks, I'll use it in a short story, if nothing else.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fc.ask.nate.com%2Fimgs%2Fqsi.php%2F4995902%2F0%2F1%2FA%2Fsnoopy.jpg&hash=e222397af7199aa60a3eea28b33724851af40204)
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Maladict on September 09, 2014, 03:43:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 08, 2014, 05:12:58 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 01:31:40 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time?  :hmm:

Poland is not going to partition itself.

I'll be in Poland in October. :mad:
I've already had to cancel holidays to Libya and Syria.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: derspiess on September 09, 2014, 03:47:59 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 09, 2014, 03:20:03 PM
Way to go Speesh.

It worked!  :w00t:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: mongers on September 09, 2014, 03:58:32 PM
Quote from: Maladict on September 09, 2014, 03:43:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 08, 2014, 05:12:58 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 01:31:40 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time?  :hmm:

Poland is not going to partition itself.

I'll be in Poland in October. :mad:
I've already had to cancel holidays to Libya and Syria.

:D

Please don't plan a cycling tour of Scotland next spring.  <_<


:P
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: celedhring on September 09, 2014, 04:26:36 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 09, 2014, 03:58:32 PM
Quote from: Maladict on September 09, 2014, 03:43:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 08, 2014, 05:12:58 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 01:31:40 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time?  :hmm:

Poland is not going to partition itself.

I'll be in Poland in October. :mad:
I've already had to cancel holidays to Libya and Syria.

:D

Please don't plan a cycling tour of Scotland next spring.  <_<


:P

There's this friend of mine who went on holiday to Japan in 2010, to Syria in 2011, to Boston in 2012 and went to watch a football match in Donetsk in late 2013.

He told me the other day that he's thinking on spending Christmas in NYC.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: DGuller on September 09, 2014, 04:33:14 PM
 :hmm: That's not a good omen.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Maladict on September 09, 2014, 04:37:03 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 09, 2014, 03:58:32 PM
Quote from: Maladict on September 09, 2014, 03:43:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on September 08, 2014, 05:12:58 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 08, 2014, 01:31:40 PM
Quote from: Zanza on September 08, 2014, 01:08:05 PM
Just booked a flight to Moscow in early October today. Will be interesting to see how average Russians see the whole conflict. Not sure if I should broach that topic though as it is a business trip.

Why would a German be flying to Moscow on a "business trip" at this time?  :hmm:

Poland is not going to partition itself.

I'll be in Poland in October. :mad:
I've already had to cancel holidays to Libya and Syria.

:D

Please don't plan a cycling tour of Scotland next spring.  <_<


:P

Scotland has been good to me.

2010  Tunisia, out just in time.
2011 Libya, cancelled
2011 Syria, cancelled
2011 Athens, riots
2011 England, riots
2012 Scotland, no riots!
2013 Istanbul, riots
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: DGuller on September 09, 2014, 04:44:59 PM
 :hmm: I'm not a believer in coincidences.  I am a big believer in enhanced interrogation techniques, however.   :menace:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014 15 teen infinity -
Post by: citizen k on September 10, 2014, 03:01:45 PM
Quote

U.S. Army Choppers Land in Polish Fields to Seek Guidance
By Piotr Skolimowski and Dorota Bartyzel - Sep 10, 2014

Six U.S. army helicopters landed in a rapeseed field in northern Poland to ask for directions after veering off course on their way back from military exercises and alarming locals on guard over tensions across the border.

Five Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and one tandem-rotor Boeing Co. Chinook chopper touched down near the village of Gruta, 220 kilometers (140 miles) north of Warsaw at about noon yesterday, according to local eyewitnesses. Some residents were at first spooked at the sight of the aircraft, Halina Kowalkowska, the village's head, said by phone.

"We know that security is the most important thing right now," Kowalkowska said. "But thank God it was the Americans."

NATO is intensifying military exercises on Russia's doorstep in Poland and the Baltic states in response to the crisis in neighboring Ukraine. At a summit in Newport, Wales, last week, the alliance agreed to rotate more troops through eastern Europe and set up a rapid-reaction force.

"The Americans came over and asked where they landed," Waldemar Krukowski, a local resident, told TVN24 television. "They wanted to know the name of the village."

Residents brought in leaflets in English about their village and handed them to soldiers, according to Kowalkowska.
Lost Boys

"It was a heavy, thick fog and you could barely see anything, so the boys had to land," she said. "I'm still shaking after a sleepless night."

The helicopters were coming back from Saber Junction exercises in Lithuania to their temporary base in Miroslawiec near the German border, according to Polish army spokesman Lt. Col. Artur Golawski. Twelve aircraft made an unscheduled landing on their way from Lithuania yesterday and the day before in what's a "standard procedure" in poor visibility, he said by phone.

"Those Americans were really heaven sent," Kowalkowska said. "Now, when I think about it we could have served them some food, but we were in shock and the boys had to go."

To contact the reporters on this story: Piotr Skolimowski in Warsaw at [email protected]; Dorota Bartyzel in Warsaw at [email protected]

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2Fuser3303%2Fimageroot%2F2014%2F09%2F20140910_gruta_0.jpg&hash=e257beda19dd93702ce7115850c56ec52f81a5c2)

Polish cargo cult has prayers answered.

Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 10, 2014, 03:12:32 PM
I imagine it would be a good time for an American to be traveling in Poland right now.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 10, 2014, 03:31:57 PM
Shit yeah-- free drinks at the bar, Polish chicks, etc. 



Wonder how much a flight to Warsaw costs these days :hmm:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Caliga on September 10, 2014, 03:49:10 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 10, 2014, 03:31:57 PM
Wonder how much a flight to Warsaw is costs days :hmm:
Spoken like a true Pole.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 10, 2014, 03:55:12 PM
:angry:  No goetta for you.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 10, 2014, 03:56:26 PM
PRAWNED :face:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 10, 2014, 04:59:27 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 10, 2014, 03:55:12 PM
:angry:  No goetta for you.

You could have polished your sentence a bit more before you hit post. It would have been polite.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: derspiess on September 10, 2014, 05:02:13 PM
None for you either, Dane.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 10, 2014, 05:06:01 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 10, 2014, 03:31:57 PM
Shit yeah-- free drinks at the bar, Polish chicks, etc. 



Wonder how much a flight to Warsaw costs these days :hmm:

Airdrop them some of those Cincy Bengals Super Bowl Champs '88 hats.  I know you know where they are.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 13, 2014, 02:29:24 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 10, 2014, 05:06:01 PM
Quote from: derspiess on September 10, 2014, 03:31:57 PM
Shit yeah-- free drinks at the bar, Polish chicks, etc. 



Wonder how much a flight to Warsaw costs these days :hmm:

Airdrop them some of those Cincy Bengals Super Bowl Champs '88 hats.  I know you know where they are.
:pinch:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 05:38:21 AM
So, read an interview with a Russian opposition analyst today, and his view is that there is no way, with the current Western policy, Putin could lose any confrontation with NATO in the Eastern Europe - because if he starts losing conventionally, he will use a tactical nuke against an Eastern European NATO capital to force NATO to withdraw - and there is no way the West would risk triggering the MAD by retaliating against a target in the Russian territory.

Thoughts?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 05:41:37 AM
Here's a summary of the view, also from an English language blog:

QuoteWould Putin commit suicide by letting his missiles fly against the United States? No. Rather, he would respond with a limited nuclear strike against a couple of European capitals -- not London or Paris, but smaller ones, presumably in Eastern European countries that have only recently joined NATO. Warsaw, against which Russia has already conducted a drill simulating a Russian nuclear attack, first comes to mind. Or, say, Vilnius, Lithuania's capital. The point is, Putin would bet on decision-makers in Washington, Berlin, London, and Paris not retaliating with nuclear weapons against Russia if it had "only" hit a city or two most Westerners have barely heard of -- and certainly do not want to die for.

The outcome of Putin's putative gambit is that NATO effectively capitulates. The alliance's credibility as guarantor of security for its member states would be utterly destroyed, as would U.S. hegemony, which largely rests on the threat of using force. Putin would then be free to do what he wanted in Ukraine and anywhere else he perceived Russia's interests to be threatened.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: PJL on September 15, 2014, 05:44:23 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 05:38:21 AM
So, read an interview with a Russian opposition analyst today, and his view is that there is no way, with the current Western policy, Putin could lose any confrontation with NATO in the Eastern Europe - because if he starts losing conventionally, he will use a tactical nuke against an Eastern European NATO capital to force NATO to withdraw - and there is no way the West would risk triggering the MAD by retaliating against a target in the Russian territory.

Thoughts?

If that happened, France would nuke Moscow as a retaliation for failing to protect French citizens in said Eastern European capital.. So it's not going to happen. I mean even Saddam Hussain didn't use chemical weapons against the West during the first Gulf war, and Putin is more rational than him.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 05:46:39 AM
Quote from: PJL on September 15, 2014, 05:44:23 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 05:38:21 AM
So, read an interview with a Russian opposition analyst today, and his view is that there is no way, with the current Western policy, Putin could lose any confrontation with NATO in the Eastern Europe - because if he starts losing conventionally, he will use a tactical nuke against an Eastern European NATO capital to force NATO to withdraw - and there is no way the West would risk triggering the MAD by retaliating against a target in the Russian territory.

Thoughts?

If that happened, France would nuke Moscow as a retaliation for failing to protect French citizens in said Eastern European capital.. So it's not going to happen. I mean even Saddam Hussain didn't use chemical weapons against the West during the first Gulf war, and Putin is more rational than him.

You are joking, right? About France nuking Moscow.  :lol:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: PJL on September 15, 2014, 05:51:11 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 05:46:39 AM
Quote from: PJL on September 15, 2014, 05:44:23 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 05:38:21 AM
So, read an interview with a Russian opposition analyst today, and his view is that there is no way, with the current Western policy, Putin could lose any confrontation with NATO in the Eastern Europe - because if he starts losing conventionally, he will use a tactical nuke against an Eastern European NATO capital to force NATO to withdraw - and there is no way the West would risk triggering the MAD by retaliating against a target in the Russian territory.

Thoughts?

If that happened, France would nuke Moscow as a retaliation for failing to protect French citizens in said Eastern European capital.. So it's not going to happen. I mean even Saddam Hussain didn't use chemical weapons against the West during the first Gulf war, and Putin is more rational than him.

You are joking, right? About France nuking Moscow.  :lol:

Maybe not Moscow, but certainly a Russian city.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 07:48:41 AM
I'd question whether the Russian military would obey an order from Putin to launch an out-of-the-blue nuclear strike on Warsaw or Vilnius.  Would Putin take the chance that the officer receiving such an order wouldn't simply shoot him or arrest him?  I don't know the extent to which Putin's regime has been able to subvert the officer selection process sufficient to get his own cronies into positions of power in the army, but I'd expect the answer to be "not much" given the Army's recent history and the lack of indications of a purge.  The Army may be willing to go along with him so long as it is in the army's best interests, but starting a nuclear war is not in the Russian Army's best interests.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Zanza on September 15, 2014, 07:53:34 AM
It's quite an escalation from sending unmarked special forces and some weapons to support local insurgents in a border region to using a tactical nuclear weapon against NATO. I would expect a conventional escalation first.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 07:56:03 AM
Quote from: Zanza on September 15, 2014, 07:53:34 AM
It's quite an escalation from sending unmarked special forces and some weapons to support local insurgents in a border region to using a tactical nuclear weapon against NATO. I would expect a conventional escalation first.

Check my post. My scenario already assumes Putin losing a local conventional war with NATO (e.g. in the Baltics).

The gambit goes like this:

1. Putin sends his unmarked special forces into Estonia.
2. Putin sends in troops.
3. NATO responds by sending own troops into Estonia.
4. Putin begins to lose.
5. Putin nukes Warsaw and tells NATO to back off.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 08:01:12 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 07:48:41 AM
I'd question whether the Russian military would obey an order from Putin to launch an out-of-the-blue nuclear strike on Warsaw or Vilnius.  Would Putin take the chance that the officer receiving such an order wouldn't simply shoot him or arrest him?  I don't know the extent to which Putin's regime has been able to subvert the officer selection process sufficient to get his own cronies into positions of power in the army, but I'd expect the answer to be "not much" given the Army's recent history and the lack of indications of a purge.  The Army may be willing to go along with him so long as it is in the army's best interests, but starting a nuclear war is not in the Russian Army's best interests.

Isn't the limited nuclear war with the West a part of the Russian military doctrine? They even had a military exercise involving nuking Warsaw. Twice.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 08:03:51 AM
Btw, does anyone know what to do in order to open a bank account in another EU country bank, while not being a resident in that country? Perhaps opening a bank account in a branch (not a subsidiary) of a foreign bank would do the trick?  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 08:10:26 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 07:56:03 AM
Check my post. My scenario already assumes Putin losing a local conventional war with NATO (e.g. in the Baltics).

The gambit goes like this:

1. Putin sends his unmarked special forces into Estonia.
2. Putin sends in troops.
3. NATO responds by sending own troops into Estonia.
4. Putin begins to lose.
5. Putin nukes Warsaw and tells NATO to back off.

I just don't see the Russian military going along with that risk.  It's an insane gamble (risking survival as a nation in order to avert a political embarrassment). 
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 15, 2014, 08:13:22 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 08:10:26 AM
I just don't see the Russian military going along with that risk.  It's an insane gamble (risking survival as a nation in order to avert a political embarrassment).

What if Putin goes to the launch site himself?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Maximus on September 15, 2014, 08:14:13 AM
Riding a tiger
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: garbon on September 15, 2014, 08:21:09 AM
What if Russian nukes malfunction and go off right now?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 08:21:10 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 08:01:12 AM
Isn't the limited nuclear war with the West a part of the Russian military doctrine? They even had a military exercise involving nuking Warsaw. Twice.

No, limited nuclear warfare isn't part of Russian doctrine (though it was explored as part of Soviet Doctrine back in the day).  Russia has increased its reliance on nuclear forces as a result of the collapse of their conventional forces, that it true.  This has lowered the presumed threshold for use of nuclear weapons, but this seems mostly the kind of bluff Putin employs so freely.  I frankly have my doubts that the Russian believe that they could successfully detonate a nuclear weapon on the first try - their warheads have been decaying for three decades and they are only beginning to invest anything in rejuvenating them.

Of course, maybe that's why their exercises involved nuking Warsaw twice...
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 08:22:24 AM
Quote from: Maximus on September 15, 2014, 08:14:13 AM
Riding a tiger
A Flying Tiger!
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 08:24:22 AM
I meant they repeated the exercise twice, not that they would nuke Warsaw twice. :P

Anyway, I hope you are right. The speculations like this are obviously raising some tensions over here. The conventional wisdom seems to be that if Putin starts losing to the West in the conventional warfare, his own people would take him out (after having been whipped into the frenzy by his current bellicose behaviour), so nuking Warsaw for him in this gambit would not be there just to save his face, but also his skin. That being said, his generals may take him out either way.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 08:26:02 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 07:48:41 AM
I'd question whether the Russian military would obey an order from Putin to launch an out-of-the-blue nuclear strike on Warsaw or Vilnius.  Would Putin take the chance that the officer receiving such an order wouldn't simply shoot him or arrest him?  I don't know the extent to which Putin's regime has been able to subvert the officer selection process sufficient to get his own cronies into positions of power in the army, but I'd expect the answer to be "not much" given the Army's recent history and the lack of indications of a purge.  The Army may be willing to go along with him so long as it is in the army's best interests, but starting a nuclear war is not in the Russian Army's best interests.
I don't think Russian military has a concept of illegal orders.  "He always obeyed his orders" is one of the highest compliments an officer could receive about his service (usually during his eulogy).  Independent thought has always been suppressed in the Russian military.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 15, 2014, 08:32:32 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 08:26:02 AM
I don't think Russian military has a concept of illegal orders.  "He always obeyed his orders" is one of the highest compliments an officer could receive about his service (usually during his eulogy).  Independent thought has always been suppressed in the Russian military.

OTOH, Rosa Kleb did defect from SMERSH to SPECTRE...  :hmm:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 15, 2014, 08:36:05 AM
Martinus' post speaks about decision-makers in Berlin retaliating with nuclear weapons. Germany has no nuclear weapons so that can be safely ruled out. :smarty:

French nuclear doctrine in the Cold War Era stated that Warsaw Pact troops invading (West) Germany would be enough for using tactical nukes against them. That was quite a wild card back then.
The nukes under French control were supposed to be able to eliminate 45 % of the industrial capacity of the USSR and 35 % of its populations. Less nuclear warheads nowadays and no fixed silo in the Plateau d'Albion anymore. There are still nuclear subs with the recent M51 missile and an air-based component with the new ASMP-A nuke for the Rafale fighter.

Chirac redefined the French nuclear doctrine by stating that if French "vital interests" were attacked nuclear retaliation was possible. Allied countries were included among them, as well energy supply sources. Foreign states leaders who resorted to terrorism could also be targeted.
Sarkozy narrowed it a bit by being more vague but it has not really changed.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 15, 2014, 08:50:30 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 05:46:39 AM
Quote from: PJL on September 15, 2014, 05:44:23 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 05:38:21 AM
So, read an interview with a Russian opposition analyst today, and his view is that there is no way, with the current Western policy, Putin could lose any confrontation with NATO in the Eastern Europe - because if he starts losing conventionally, he will use a tactical nuke against an Eastern European NATO capital to force NATO to withdraw - and there is no way the West would risk triggering the MAD by retaliating against a target in the Russian territory.

Thoughts?

If that happened, France would nuke Moscow as a retaliation for failing to protect French citizens in said Eastern European capital.. So it's not going to happen. I mean even Saddam Hussain didn't use chemical weapons against the West during the first Gulf war, and Putin is more rational than him.

You are joking, right? About France nuking Moscow.  :lol:

Do not joke about French nuclear policy;  it's a recent development that has largely been silent, but Zarkozy's review and subsequent revision of stated French nuclear posture a few years back--from deployment to use--is one of the biggest developments in nuclear policy in decades.
The French will use nukes outside of the NATO construct.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 15, 2014, 08:51:25 AM
Good. They make such a mess.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 08:54:10 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 08:26:02 AM
I don't think Russian military has a concept of illegal orders.  "He always obeyed his orders" is one of the highest compliments an officer could receive about his service (usually during his eulogy).  Independent thought has always been suppressed in the Russian military.
I've read any number of accounts where Russian generals and politicians praised officers and NCOs for refusing to retreat when ordered during the Second world War, but I think that, in general, disobedience of "unlawful" orders is only justifiable for "honor" reasons and not for "violation of rights" reasons.

However, we are talking about generals disobeying mad orders, not lieutenants refusing "illegal' ones.  Big difference, even in Russia.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:03:08 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 08:54:10 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 08:26:02 AM
I don't think Russian military has a concept of illegal orders.  "He always obeyed his orders" is one of the highest compliments an officer could receive about his service (usually during his eulogy).  Independent thought has always been suppressed in the Russian military.
I've read any number of accounts where Russian generals and politicians praised officers and NCOs for refusing to retreat when ordered during the Second world War, but I think that, in general, disobedience of "unlawful" orders is only justifiable for "honor" reasons and not for "violation of rights" reasons.

However, we are talking about generals disobeying mad orders, not lieutenants refusing "illegal' ones.  Big difference, even in Russia.
Another factors is that Russians are very good at psychology of authoritarianism.  I'm pretty sure that the problem of any human in the nuclear launch chain of having doubts about going in with their task is obvious to them, and that they've thought thought through the measures that would keep them compliant for long enough.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 15, 2014, 09:06:36 AM
Vodka. :mmm:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 09:19:23 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 15, 2014, 08:36:05 AM
Martinus' post speaks about decision-makers in Berlin retaliating with nuclear weapons. Germany has no nuclear weapons so that can be safely ruled out. :smarty:

Que?  :huh:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: garbon on September 15, 2014, 09:21:11 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 09:19:23 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 15, 2014, 08:36:05 AM
Martinus' post speaks about decision-makers in Berlin retaliating with nuclear weapons. Germany has no nuclear weapons so that can be safely ruled out. :smarty:

Que?  :huh:

QuoteThe point is, Putin would bet on decision-makers in Washington, Berlin, London, and Paris not retaliating with nuclear weapons against Russia if it had "only" hit a city or two most Westerners have barely heard of -- and certainly do not want to die for.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:28:02 AM
I think Berlin was mentioned for its EU role, not because it owns nukes. 
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: garbon on September 15, 2014, 09:29:07 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:28:02 AM
I think Berlin was mentioned for its EU role, not because it owns nukes. 

Yeah agreed though the sentence is awkward as German decision-makers don't have a huge role in whether the Western nuclear powers decided to use their weapons.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 09:29:17 AM
I also think people in Berlin have heard of Warsaw. :P
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 15, 2014, 09:35:57 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:28:02 AM
I think Berlin was mentioned for its EU role, not because it owns nukes.

:huh: Berlin doesn't own nukes.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 09:41:17 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 07:56:03 AM
Quote from: Zanza on September 15, 2014, 07:53:34 AM
It's quite an escalation from sending unmarked special forces and some weapons to support local insurgents in a border region to using a tactical nuclear weapon against NATO. I would expect a conventional escalation first.

Check my post. My scenario already assumes Putin losing a local conventional war with NATO (e.g. in the Baltics).

The gambit goes like this:

1. Putin sends his unmarked special forces into Estonia.
2. Putin sends in troops.
3. NATO responds by sending own troops into Estonia.
4. Putin begins to lose.
5. Putin nukes Warsaw and tells NATO to back off.

I think it's a giant huge assumption that NATO would back off if Putin nuked Warsaw. I, for one, assume that a nuclear attack on a NATO country would result in swift and disproportional retaliation.

What's the reasoning for assuming it will not? That Western leaders are somehow weak?

The explicit outcome of the scenario the guy outlines explicit results in the complete collapse of NATO as an organization and counter weight to Russia. That's a pretty strong reason to act. I mean... if it works on Warsaw, where does it stop?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:43:28 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:03:08 AM
Another factors is that Russians are very good at psychology of authoritarianism.  I'm pretty sure that the problem of any human in the nuclear launch chain of having doubts about going in with their task is obvious to them, and that they've thought thought through the measures that would keep them compliant for long enough.

That's true of the US, UK, France, and China as well.  It isn't relevant to the discussion, though.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:44:40 AM
Quote from: The Brain on September 15, 2014, 09:35:57 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:28:02 AM
I think Berlin was mentioned for its EU role, not because it owns nukes.

:huh: Berlin doesn't own nukes.

:yes: True, but it is also true that Berlin doesn't own nukes.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:46:41 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 09:41:17 AM
I think it's a giant huge assumption that NATO would back off if Putin nuked Warsaw. I, for one, assume that a nuclear attack on a NATO country would result in swift and disproportional retaliation.

What's the reasoning for assuming it will not? That Western leaders are somehow weak?

The explicit outcome of the scenario the guy outlines explicit results in the complete collapse of NATO as an organization and counter weight to Russia. That's a pretty strong reason to act. I mean... if it works on Warsaw, where does it stop?
NATO's choice would be collapse as an organization, or collapse due to the nuclear annihilation of all its members (but, as a consolation price, Russia would be annihilated as well).  I can see some doubt seeping in for the politicians in charge of ordering the disproportionate retaliation.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: garbon on September 15, 2014, 09:48:17 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 09:41:17 AM
The explicit outcome of the scenario the guy outlines explicit results in the complete collapse of NATO as an organization and counter weight to Russia. That's a pretty strong reason to act. I mean... if it works on Warsaw, where does it stop?

Yeah that is the one part that got me. Seems like if we let that slide, we're really just giving up entirely.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 09:48:38 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 09:41:17 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 07:56:03 AM
Quote from: Zanza on September 15, 2014, 07:53:34 AM
It's quite an escalation from sending unmarked special forces and some weapons to support local insurgents in a border region to using a tactical nuclear weapon against NATO. I would expect a conventional escalation first.

Check my post. My scenario already assumes Putin losing a local conventional war with NATO (e.g. in the Baltics).

The gambit goes like this:

1. Putin sends his unmarked special forces into Estonia.
2. Putin sends in troops.
3. NATO responds by sending own troops into Estonia.
4. Putin begins to lose.
5. Putin nukes Warsaw and tells NATO to back off.

I think it's a giant huge assumption that NATO would back off if Putin nuked Warsaw. I, for one, assume that a nuclear attack on a NATO country would result in swift and disproportional retaliation.

What's the reasoning for assuming it will not? That Western leaders are somehow weak?

The explicit outcome of the scenario the guy outlines explicit results in the complete collapse of NATO as an organization and counter weight to Russia. That's a pretty strong reason to act. I mean... if it works on Warsaw, where does it stop?

Well, the NATO's failure to respond nuclearily is exactly the point open for the debate - I was in fact asking how feasible such scenario is. :)

I think the line of reasoning is that the West would not risk a MAD scenario with Russia by using its own nukes to strike into Russian territory. And yes, the complete collapse of NATO, resulting from such outcome, would be what Putin is aiming for by playing this gambit.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:49:54 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:43:28 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:03:08 AM
Another factors is that Russians are very good at psychology of authoritarianism.  I'm pretty sure that the problem of any human in the nuclear launch chain of having doubts about going in with their task is obvious to them, and that they've thought thought through the measures that would keep them compliant for long enough.

That's true of the US, UK, France, and China as well.  It isn't relevant to the discussion, though.
It may or may not be relevant.  I don't see US launching an unprovoked nuclear strike.  I see Russia doing that if it perceives that it can get away with it, it's a nation always run by psychopaths.  That requires more stringent training of the military to make sure they're ready to engage in nuclear genocide when ordered, and part of that training is not mutinying.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 09:50:21 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:46:41 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 09:41:17 AM
I think it's a giant huge assumption that NATO would back off if Putin nuked Warsaw. I, for one, assume that a nuclear attack on a NATO country would result in swift and disproportional retaliation.

What's the reasoning for assuming it will not? That Western leaders are somehow weak?

The explicit outcome of the scenario the guy outlines explicit results in the complete collapse of NATO as an organization and counter weight to Russia. That's a pretty strong reason to act. I mean... if it works on Warsaw, where does it stop?
NATO's choice would be collapse as an organization, or collapse due to the nuclear annihilation of all its members (but, as a consolation price, Russia would be annihilated as well).  I can see some doubt seeping in for the politicians in charge of ordering the disproportionate retaliation.

Yup. Exactly.

I don't know what the Russian ballistic capability is and whether it can strike targets in the US. But would France or the UK risk annihilation of Paris and London, respectively, in order to prevent NATO from collapsing?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:52:19 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:46:41 AM
NATO's choice would be collapse as an organization, or collapse due to the nuclear annihilation of all its members (but, as a consolation price, Russia would be annihilated as well).  I can see some doubt seeping in for the politicians in charge of ordering the disproportionate retaliation.

Why couldn't NATO respond to non-strategic use of nuclear weapons with non-strategic weapons of their own?  Why is only Russia allowed, in this scenario, to use weapons other than in an overwhelming MAD response?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 09:52:32 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:46:41 AM
NATO's choice would be collapse as an organization, or collapse due to the nuclear annihilation of all its members (but, as a consolation price, Russia would be annihilated as well).  I can see some doubt seeping in for the politicians in charge of ordering the disproportionate retaliation.

I think NATO collapsing as an organization while Russia is fighting a war against it, in which Russia has employed nuclear weapons already, is virtually indistinguishable from nuclear annihilation in the medium term.

Perhaps the Russians think we'll bottle out on this, but I don't. I also doubt the Russian ability to inflict total nuclear annihilation on the West.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 09:56:14 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:52:19 AM
Why couldn't NATO respond to non-strategic use of nuclear weapons with non-strategic weapons of their own?  Why is only Russia allowed, in this scenario, to use weapons other than in an overwhelming MAD response?

Yeah, they nuke Warsaw, NATO nukes St. Petersburg or Novosibirsk (or both) and says "don't pull that shit". Will Putin retaliate or escalate, knowing that NATO is willing to pull the trigger?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:59:51 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:49:54 AM
It may or may not be relevant.  I don't see US launching an unprovoked nuclear strike.  I see Russia doing that if it perceives that it can get away with it, it's a nation always run by psychopaths.  That requires more stringent training of the military to make sure they're ready to engage in nuclear genocide when ordered, and part of that training is not mutinying.

I see that you have already veered from reasonable discussion to the "nation always run by psychopaths" path, so I will stop engaging in this discussion.  Something for you to think about, though:  if Russia has always been run by psychopaths (which includes inability to distinguish danger and inability to restrain urges for instant gratification), do you not think it would have used nukes many times by now?  The fact that the Russians have not used nukes so far should be evidence that your assessment of their leaders as psychotic is an emotional rather than an intellectual one.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:03:18 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:52:19 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:46:41 AM
NATO's choice would be collapse as an organization, or collapse due to the nuclear annihilation of all its members (but, as a consolation price, Russia would be annihilated as well).  I can see some doubt seeping in for the politicians in charge of ordering the disproportionate retaliation.

Why couldn't NATO respond to non-strategic use of nuclear weapons with non-strategic weapons of their own?  Why is only Russia allowed, in this scenario, to use weapons other than in an overwhelming MAD response?
I think that's exactly what's going to happen.  Not disproportionate response, but a perfectly proportional response, with Putin being informed ahead of time.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 10:03:19 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 09:56:14 AM
Yeah, they nuke Warsaw, NATO nukes St. Petersburg or Novosibirsk (or both) and says "don't pull that shit". Will Putin retaliate or escalate, knowing that NATO is willing to pull the trigger?

Or, the Russians nuke Warsaw and NATO vaporizes the First, Second, Third, Fourth, and Fifth Strike Armies and the Baltic, Black Sea, and Northern Fleets, leaving Russia with the palace guard and a coupla troops of Boy Scouts, is Russia going to throw away the one thing that will keep the Chinese out of Moscow, or back down?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 15, 2014, 10:04:40 AM
Or, two BDSM-curious lipstick lesbians move in across the street from me.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 10:05:56 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 09:56:14 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:52:19 AM
Why couldn't NATO respond to non-strategic use of nuclear weapons with non-strategic weapons of their own?  Why is only Russia allowed, in this scenario, to use weapons other than in an overwhelming MAD response?

Yeah, they nuke Warsaw, NATO nukes St. Petersburg or Novosibirsk (or both) and says "don't pull that shit". Will Putin retaliate or escalate, knowing that NATO is willing to pull the trigger?

I don't think that would be the NATO nuclear response - at least, I certainly hope it would not.

I think the response to any first use of nuclear weapons by Russia would and should be a massive counter-force strike at Russian nuclear assets. I suspect that Russia cannot actually effectively survive such a scenario with their counter-strike capability intact.

Which is why I think they don't do something like this in the first place. The force capabilities as they exist simply do not work for them.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 10:14:57 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 10:05:56 AM
I don't think that would be the NATO nuclear response - at least, I certainly hope it would not.

I think the response to any first use of nuclear weapons by Russia would and should be a massive counter-force strike at Russian nuclear assets. I suspect that Russia cannot actually effectively survive such a scenario with their counter-strike capability intact.

Which is why I think they don't do something like this in the first place. The force capabilities as they exist simply do not work for them.
No, I don't think you go counterforce with your NATO nukes, because then you force Putin into a "use them or lose them" scenario, and that's exactly the last thing you want to do.

I think NATO should (and would target) non-strategic-nuclear forces like naval bases, army concentrations, major airfields, and the like, with both precision conventional and tactical nuclear forces.  That still allows Putin to back down, creates an enormous pressure from his military leadership to do so, avoids war crimes of the type Putin has just engaged in, and doesn't promote escalation.  Going straight counterforce creates an existential threat to Russia, while annihilating their conventional military does not.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 10:20:40 AM
The problem though is that Russia cannot tell which you are doing when you start - the missiles are flying, and they have minutes to decide how to try to respond.

I suspect that the reality is that a US counter-force strike in this case would actually work - but either it does or it does not, and no matter what the weapons are aimed at, Russia would have to assume that they are aimed at their strategic assets, right? They are put in a "try to use or or lose it" from their perspective anyway.

So if we launch a significant strike aimed at their non-nuclear assets, they are very likely to push the "shoot it all back in the hopes we can get it off before it is lost" button anyway, which results in...the West being massively damaged because we did NOT target their nuclear assets.

And since they lack the capability to effectively hit US nuclear forces, the only choice they have are political targets, population centers, etc.

I like your idea, but I don't think it works really.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:30:14 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:59:51 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 09:49:54 AM
It may or may not be relevant.  I don't see US launching an unprovoked nuclear strike.  I see Russia doing that if it perceives that it can get away with it, it's a nation always run by psychopaths.  That requires more stringent training of the military to make sure they're ready to engage in nuclear genocide when ordered, and part of that training is not mutinying.

I see that you have already veered from reasonable discussion to the "nation always run by psychopaths" path, so I will stop engaging in this discussion.  Something for you to think about, though:  if Russia has always been run by psychopaths (which includes inability to distinguish danger and inability to restrain urges for instant gratification), do you not think it would have used nukes many times by now?  The fact that the Russians have not used nukes so far should be evidence that your assessment of their leaders as psychotic is an emotional rather than an intellectual one.
Please refrain from responding in a patronizing tone.  You're not in position to act that way.  You're just another poster here, and not a very good one at that.

Now, as to what I said.  Psychopathy is not very clearly defined even from a clinical perspective, so some reading of context is required (which I realize has never been your strong suit in communication).  When I say that Russian leaders are psychopathic, I mean that they're extremely cynical and always looking out for their own advantage, without any scruples or empathy (luckily for us, that's true both internally and externally, so often times these qualities are aimed at other Russians).  Maybe I shouldn't have used a technical term in a possibly incorrect way, but maybe you shouldn't be such a tool and just read what was intended to be conveyed.  I will now likewise cease engaging with you.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 15, 2014, 10:40:03 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:30:14 AM
  You're just another poster here, and not a very good one at that.

What are the criteria on which we're judged as being good posters or not? :unsure:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:44:24 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on September 15, 2014, 10:40:03 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:30:14 AM
  You're just another poster here, and not a very good one at that.

What are the criteria on which we're judged as being good posters or not? :unsure:
Judgmental.  :mad:
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 10:51:12 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 09:59:51 AM
I see that you have already veered from reasonable discussion to the "nation always run by psychopaths" path, so I will stop engaging in this discussion.  Something for you to think about, though:  if Russia has always been run by psychopaths (which includes inability to distinguish danger and inability to restrain urges for instant gratification), do you not think it would have used nukes many times by now?  The fact that the Russians have not used nukes so far should be evidence that your assessment of their leaders as psychotic is an emotional rather than an intellectual one.

I think Putin is quite content to cultivate an image of being an irrational psychopath in this context. If we, "the weak and disorganized West", thinks he is such a crazy guy we are more likely to back down. At least that's how I think Putin reasons.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 10:53:33 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 10:05:56 AM
I don't think that would be the NATO nuclear response - at least, I certainly hope it would not.

I think the response to any first use of nuclear weapons by Russia would and should be a massive counter-force strike at Russian nuclear assets. I suspect that Russia cannot actually effectively survive such a scenario with their counter-strike capability intact.

Which is why I think they don't do something like this in the first place. The force capabilities as they exist simply do not work for them.

Yeah, good point.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:58:16 AM
I sure hope someone thought through that scenario.  This isn't something where winging it is going to work well.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 11:05:08 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:58:16 AM
I sure hope someone thought through that scenario.  This isn't something where winging it is going to work well.

I expect some of the military planners of the NATO countries with nuclear weapons go through this sort of stuff, yeah.

I doubt they'll ask me or Berkut - or even grumbler - whether and how to pull the trigger. All I know is that if Putin nukes Warsaw or some such I'm on board with a nuclear "fuck you right back at ya'" at Putin. And I expect that that's what'll happen as well.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 11:41:05 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 10:20:40 AM
The problem though is that Russia cannot tell which you are doing when you start - the missiles are flying, and they have minutes to decide how to try to respond.

I suspect that the reality is that a US counter-force strike in this case would actually work - but either it does or it does not, and no matter what the weapons are aimed at, Russia would have to assume that they are aimed at their strategic assets, right? They are put in a "try to use or or lose it" from their perspective anyway.

So if we launch a significant strike aimed at their non-nuclear assets, they are very likely to push the "shoot it all back in the hopes we can get it off before it is lost" button anyway, which results in...the West being massively damaged because we did NOT target their nuclear assets.

And since they lack the capability to effectively hit US nuclear forces, the only choice they have are political targets, population centers, etc.

I like your idea, but I don't think it works really.

The Russians can certainly tell a tactical nuclear scenrio from a strategic nuclear scenario, because int he latter the birds start to fly some silos and SSBNs, while in the former nuclear weapons are delivered by aircraft.

Once the birds start to fly, it is over.  Except for an SSBN reserve, the other side will empty their lands, figuring that anything that doesn't get fired will die in the silo.

If Putin kicks this all off with an ICBM strike, even on Warsaw, he triggers a massive exchange.  At that point, you are correct that the best NATO strategy is counter-force and absorb the casualties.  Russia would be utterly crushed by such an exchange, though, and so i doubt that that is Putin's scenario.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 11:48:11 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on September 15, 2014, 10:40:03 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:30:14 AM
  You're just another poster here, and not a very good one at that.

What are the criteria on which we're judged as being good posters or not? :unsure:
If we agree with DG's hysterical characterization of all of Russia's leaders as psychopaths (but not really, that is not what he means), we are good.  If not (in other words, if we are right since not even he believes the bullshit he posts), we are not very good.  I am proud to be in his book as "not very good."  He is in my book as "not very intellectually honest."  His post, which argued that i was essentially an ass for taking him at his word, and arguing instead that, while he didn't mean what he actually said, I should have responded to what he meant to say rather than what he actually said, is typical DG intellectual dishonesty.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 15, 2014, 11:48:55 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 08:03:51 AM
Btw, does anyone know what to do in order to open a bank account in another EU country bank, while not being a resident in that country? Perhaps opening a bank account in a branch (not a subsidiary) of a foreign bank would do the trick?  :ph34r:

PM is arriving.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 11:49:17 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 11:48:11 AM
If we agree with DG's hysterical characterization of all of Russia's leaders as psychopaths (but not really, that is not what he means), we are good.  If not (in other words, if we are right since not even he believes the bullshit he posts), we are not very good.  I am proud to be in his book as "not very good."  He is in my book as "not very intellectually honest."  His post, which argued that i was essentially an ass for taking him at his word, and arguing instead that, while he didn't mean what he actually said, I should have responded to what he meant to say rather than what he actually said, is typical DG intellectual dishonesty.

Not sure if that was strategic or tactical countermeasures?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 11:52:06 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 10:53:33 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 10:05:56 AM
I don't think that would be the NATO nuclear response - at least, I certainly hope it would not.

I think the response to any first use of nuclear weapons by Russia would and should be a massive counter-force strike at Russian nuclear assets. I suspect that Russia cannot actually effectively survive such a scenario with their counter-strike capability intact.

Which is why I think they don't do something like this in the first place. The force capabilities as they exist simply do not work for them.

Yeah, good point.

I think the amateurs (and of course that includes me) don't realize the basic asynchronous reality in capability that exists right now. The US nuclear capability is first strike immune, since it is primarily based on submarine launched weapons that of course cannot really be hit with a first strike. Additionally, it is thought that Soviet weapons lack the precision necessary to even reliably take out silo based weapons.

However, the reverse is not true - Soviet nuclear forces are in fact vulnerable to first strike. Their subs lack the operational capability to stay at sea consistently, and hence are vulnerable in their bases (this would be lessened in a period of heightened tension of course, and if we imagine a Russian instigated nuclear exchange, presumably they would prepare for this, but it is likely that even at that they would simply not be capable of sortieing their entire fleet). Additionally, US counter sub assets are thought to be considerably more capable of taking out Russian nuclear subs if ordered to do so, although speculation around that is of course, largely that - speculation.

US nuclear capability is thought to be at least theoretically capable of taking out a significant portion of Russian nuclear capability. Our warheads are accurate enough to reliably ensure a significant degradation (say 90% or more) of Russian capability.

Of course, even a 90% destruction results in tens of millions of dead Americans and Europeans. It is by no means a clean solution. But it is a solution that means that the thinking is that NATO could in fact "win" a potential nuclear exchange if we start a counter-force strike first.

And all that means it is really unlikely that Russia engages in a series of events that would result in NATO being in a position where they would need to respond to a limited Russian attack. Because the rational response at that point is to try to take out the Russian capability to continue the escalation, or do nothing at all.

I don't buy into the idea that the plan would be two "ratchet" up the response in a tit-for-tat escalation. That would neuter our technical and operational advantage.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 11:53:00 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 11:05:08 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:58:16 AM
I sure hope someone thought through that scenario.  This isn't something where winging it is going to work well.

I expect some of the military planners of the NATO countries with nuclear weapons go through this sort of stuff, yeah.

I doubt they'll ask me or Berkut - or even grumbler - whether and how to pull the trigger. All I know is that if Putin nukes Warsaw or some such I'm on board with a nuclear "fuck you right back at ya'" at Putin. And I expect that that's what'll happen as well.

I agree.  I don't think Western interests are served by a massive thermonuclear counter-force strike in response to a tactical strike on, say, Warsaw, though.  Russia has the capacity to detect the launch of such an attack, and would surely launch before the strike went home.

Russia's war-making capabilities can be crippled with nuclear attacks far short of massive thermonuclear attack.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 11:55:06 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 11:41:05 AM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 10:20:40 AM
The problem though is that Russia cannot tell which you are doing when you start - the missiles are flying, and they have minutes to decide how to try to respond.

I suspect that the reality is that a US counter-force strike in this case would actually work - but either it does or it does not, and no matter what the weapons are aimed at, Russia would have to assume that they are aimed at their strategic assets, right? They are put in a "try to use or or lose it" from their perspective anyway.

So if we launch a significant strike aimed at their non-nuclear assets, they are very likely to push the "shoot it all back in the hopes we can get it off before it is lost" button anyway, which results in...the West being massively damaged because we did NOT target their nuclear assets.

And since they lack the capability to effectively hit US nuclear forces, the only choice they have are political targets, population centers, etc.

I like your idea, but I don't think it works really.

The Russians can certainly tell a tactical nuclear scenrio from a strategic nuclear scenario, because int he latter the birds start to fly some silos and SSBNs, while in the former nuclear weapons are delivered by aircraft.

Once the birds start to fly, it is over.  Except for an SSBN reserve, the other side will empty their lands, figuring that anything that doesn't get fired will die in the silo.

If Putin kicks this all off with an ICBM strike, even on Warsaw, he triggers a massive exchange.  At that point, you are correct that the best NATO strategy is counter-force and absorb the casualties.  Russia would be utterly crushed by such an exchange, though, and so i doubt that that is Putin's scenario.

Can we deliver a significant tactical nuclear strike of that kind strictly with aircraft?

My own ignorance is getting in the way now - I am actually not really aware how capable we are of delivering, say, a couple dozen tactical weapons strictly via aircraft at targets within Russian airspace.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 11:56:31 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 11:53:00 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 11:05:08 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:58:16 AM
I sure hope someone thought through that scenario.  This isn't something where winging it is going to work well.

I expect some of the military planners of the NATO countries with nuclear weapons go through this sort of stuff, yeah.

I doubt they'll ask me or Berkut - or even grumbler - whether and how to pull the trigger. All I know is that if Putin nukes Warsaw or some such I'm on board with a nuclear "fuck you right back at ya'" at Putin. And I expect that that's what'll happen as well.

I agree.  I don't think Western interests are served by a massive thermonuclear counter-force strike in response to a tactical strike on, say, Warsaw, though.  Russia has the capacity to detect the launch of such an attack, and would surely launch before the strike went home.

My understanding (and this may very well be simply wrong) is that there is some serious questions about Russian capability to detect and respond to such an attack before the weapons are landing.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Barrister on September 15, 2014, 11:57:47 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 11:05:08 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:58:16 AM
I sure hope someone thought through that scenario.  This isn't something where winging it is going to work well.

I expect some of the military planners of the NATO countries with nuclear weapons go through this sort of stuff, yeah.

I doubt they'll ask me or Berkut - or even grumbler - whether and how to pull the trigger. All I know is that if Putin nukes Warsaw or some such I'm on board with a nuclear "fuck you right back at ya'" at Putin. And I expect that that's what'll happen as well.

Ethically I dislike the notion of casually killing a million or so muscovites as simply a "tit-for-tat" response.

Either a Russian military strike on a European city triggers war, and we respond with full force, or we chose to react in some other fashion.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 15, 2014, 11:58:39 AM
Not too long ago I was trying out a boardgame about global nuclear war in 1983.

Now of course this depends on how accurate the game was, but, playing around with the different options on gradually getting to full exchange or trying to keep it local and such, I was thinking:

I think going limited with a nuclear strike is utterly pointless and counterproductive. If you employ nukes in a limited fashion, there is a higher than zero chance for the enemy going full retaliatory against your ass, or at least going with full power against your remaining nuclear arsenal.

So if you are using tac nukes on enemy units, or eliminate one of their cities with a single ICBM, your next step is waiting and hoping the enemy will be too afraid to escalate, after you have given him the perfect excuse to glass you out of existence with one fell swoop.


Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 11:59:17 AM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 11:48:11 AM
If we agree with DG's hysterical characterization of all of Russia's leaders as psychopaths (but not really, that is not what he means), we are good.  If not (in other words, if we are right since not even he believes the bullshit he posts), we are not very good.  I am proud to be in his book as "not very good."  He is in my book as "not very intellectually honest."  His post, which argued that i was essentially an ass for taking him at his word, and arguing instead that, while he didn't mean what he actually said, I should have responded to what he meant to say rather than what he actually said, is typical DG intellectual dishonesty.
Grumbler, I've said it plenty of time before.  Just because I choose not to grumbler-proof my posts for the sake of brevity does not mean that I'm going back on my words when you then proceed to intentionally misinterpret them.  Any piece of communication can be misinterpreted if one tries hard enough.  This is why you're not that good of a poster:  sooner or later, your lack of desire to communicate in good faith will turn make any discussion acrimonious.  It happened countless times, with many posters other than myself, and it will keep happening again.

And speaking of dishonest, where does replying by proxy after promising to end the discussion rank?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Tamas on September 15, 2014, 12:00:27 PM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 11:53:00 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 11:05:08 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 10:58:16 AM
I sure hope someone thought through that scenario.  This isn't something where winging it is going to work well.

I expect some of the military planners of the NATO countries with nuclear weapons go through this sort of stuff, yeah.

I doubt they'll ask me or Berkut - or even grumbler - whether and how to pull the trigger. All I know is that if Putin nukes Warsaw or some such I'm on board with a nuclear "fuck you right back at ya'" at Putin. And I expect that that's what'll happen as well.

I agree.  I don't think Western interests are served by a massive thermonuclear counter-force strike in response to a tactical strike on, say, Warsaw, though.  Russia has the capacity to detect the launch of such an attack, and would surely launch before the strike went home.

Russia's war-making capabilities can be crippled with nuclear attacks far short of massive thermonuclear attack.

Yes. But. If you are clearly targeting the nuclear and war capabilities of the Russians without going for cities and such, there is only one reasonable reaction from them: launch EVERYTHING while they can.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 12:00:31 PM
Quote from: Barrister on September 15, 2014, 11:57:47 AM
Ethically I dislike the notion of casually killing a million or so muscovites as simply a "tit-for-tat" response.

Either a Russian military strike on a European city triggers war, and we respond with full force, or we chose to react in some other fashion.

Yeah, I think grumbler and Berkut's point that the target should be Russia's military capability makes a lot more sense than nuking cities. I hadn't thought that one through.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 12:04:11 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 12:00:31 PM
Quote from: Barrister on September 15, 2014, 11:57:47 AM
Ethically I dislike the notion of casually killing a million or so muscovites as simply a "tit-for-tat" response.

Either a Russian military strike on a European city triggers war, and we respond with full force, or we chose to react in some other fashion.

Yeah, I think grumbler and Berkut's point that the target should be Russia's military capability makes a lot more sense than nuking cities. I hadn't thought that one through.

Targetting cities only makes sense in the strict MAD scenario - where the enemy has already launched, and hence there is no point in firing your nukes at their empty silos.

It is why I think any scenario where a US President is contemplating HOW to strike back with  nuclear weapons at a target that has not yet launched the bulk of their strategic assets is almost certainly going to go full counter-asset strike. It is the only time it can possibly work, and the only chance you have of "winning" the nuclear war.

I don't agree with grumblers idea that you make nuclear attacks on their non-nuclear assets. There is just too high of a chance that they respond with the MAD scenario, and it is likely that you only get one chance to try the counter-force strike.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 12:14:51 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 12:04:11 PM
I don't agree with grumblers idea that you make nuclear attacks on their non-nuclear assets. There is just too high of a chance that they respond with the MAD scenario, and it is likely that you only get one chance to try the counter-force strike.

Were the guy making the decision I'd combine the two - try to take out all significant military assets, nuclear and conventional.

But to take it back to the starting point... it seems an awfully bold move by Putin to (hypothetically) nuke Warsaw - a NATO country - and blithely assume that NATO would lack the balls to strike back altogether. It almost makes more sense for him to go all out first, though I don't see that playing out too well for him either.

... I'm getting some serious nostalgia for the 80s here, for some reason, and I don't mean the pop-culture part.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 12:28:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 12:14:51 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 12:04:11 PM
I don't agree with grumblers idea that you make nuclear attacks on their non-nuclear assets. There is just too high of a chance that they respond with the MAD scenario, and it is likely that you only get one chance to try the counter-force strike.

Were the guy making the decision I'd combine the two - try to take out all significant military assets, nuclear and conventional.


Well, I don't really know about that, but I suspect that whatever folder contains the "First strike (Counter-Asset)" scenario probably includes a sub-section of "non-strategic military assets we might as well blow away while we are at it" section as well.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 15, 2014, 12:59:34 PM
Accordion factories and mime schools.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Razgovory on September 15, 2014, 01:16:06 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 12:14:51 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 12:04:11 PM
I don't agree with grumblers idea that you make nuclear attacks on their non-nuclear assets. There is just too high of a chance that they respond with the MAD scenario, and it is likely that you only get one chance to try the counter-force strike.

Were the guy making the decision I'd combine the two - try to take out all significant military assets, nuclear and conventional.

But to take it back to the starting point... it seems an awfully bold move by Putin to (hypothetically) nuke Warsaw - a NATO country - and blithely assume that NATO would lack the balls to strike back altogether. It almost makes more sense for him to go all out first, though I don't see that playing out too well for him either.

... I'm getting some serious nostalgia for the 80s here, for some reason, and I don't mean the pop-culture part.

Even if it worked and he broke NATO, it would put Russia in to North Korea like isolation.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:16:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 12:14:51 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 12:04:11 PM
I don't agree with grumblers idea that you make nuclear attacks on their non-nuclear assets. There is just too high of a chance that they respond with the MAD scenario, and it is likely that you only get one chance to try the counter-force strike.

Were the guy making the decision I'd combine the two - try to take out all significant military assets, nuclear and conventional.

But to take it back to the starting point... it seems an awfully bold move by Putin to (hypothetically) nuke Warsaw - a NATO country - and blithely assume that NATO would lack the balls to strike back altogether. It almost makes more sense for him to go all out first, though I don't see that playing out too well for him either.

... I'm getting some serious nostalgia for the 80s here, for some reason, and I don't mean the pop-culture part.

Were there similar concerns about Russia nuking Copenhagen back in the cold war? I remember reading something about it, but obviously my memory is sketchy.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:18:26 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 15, 2014, 01:16:06 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 12:14:51 PM
Quote from: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 12:04:11 PM
I don't agree with grumblers idea that you make nuclear attacks on their non-nuclear assets. There is just too high of a chance that they respond with the MAD scenario, and it is likely that you only get one chance to try the counter-force strike.

Were the guy making the decision I'd combine the two - try to take out all significant military assets, nuclear and conventional.

But to take it back to the starting point... it seems an awfully bold move by Putin to (hypothetically) nuke Warsaw - a NATO country - and blithely assume that NATO would lack the balls to strike back altogether. It almost makes more sense for him to go all out first, though I don't see that playing out too well for him either.

... I'm getting some serious nostalgia for the 80s here, for some reason, and I don't mean the pop-culture part.

Even if it worked and he broke NATO, it would put Russia in to North Korea like isolation.

That scenario is much less problematic when about quarter of the world becomes your playground - withdrawal/collapse of NATO would mean that all of CEE, the Stans and parts of Asia would become Russian influence zone.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 01:20:10 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 15, 2014, 12:00:27 PM
Yes. But. If you are clearly targeting the nuclear and war capabilities of the Russians without going for cities and such, there is only one reasonable reaction from them: launch EVERYTHING while they can.

If you target the nuclear capabilities, whether you target the rest of the military or not, they must launch verything while they can.  That is precisely my argument.  If, on the other hand, you punish Russia for the nuking of Warsaw by the nuking of the main naval bases, military formations, and airbases, while leaving their nuclear forces alone, they have to choose between completely disarming themselves by firing their nukes and triggering the response that will end them as a civilization, or else becoming a power with nukes but nothing else.  I don't think Putin would survive politically in the latter situation, but the world would be safe.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 01:22:26 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:16:10 PM
Were there similar concerns about Russia nuking Copenhagen back in the cold war? I remember reading something about it, but obviously my memory is sketchy.

I'm pretty sure most scenarios had Denmark utterly obliterated if the balloon went up, being inconveniently placed in the way of the Soviet Baltic fleet.

There was no specific attempts to single out Copenhagen for verbal intimidation as it seems there is for Warsaw right now, no (though I'm curious to what degree that's a thing Russia is doing vs an indicator of how jumpy you're feeling in Poland right now).

I was more commenting on current events leading to discussions where significant nuclear exchanges were on the table. I remain convinced that a scenario where Warsaw is nuked and little further happens is very very unlikely.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:22:41 PM
So, to summarise the discussion between Berkut and Grumbler.

Let's assume it is 2020 and Russia has just nuked Warsaw. President Clinton is advised by General Berkut and General Grumbler. General Berkut is saying that the US should not strike at non-nuclear military targets of Russia, as this carries a too-high-risk of a MAD-triggering response. General grumbler is saying that the US should not strike at nuclear silos of Russia, as this incentives Russia to fire off all of its nukes before they are destroyed - thus triggering a MAD-like response.

Faced with a high risk of the world being annihilated and unable to choose between those two scenarios, President Clinton decides it is better to let NATO collapse and does not respond with a nuclear strike.

Still unlikely?
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 01:24:53 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 15, 2014, 12:00:27 PM
Yes. But. If you are clearly targeting the nuclear and war capabilities of the Russians without going for cities and such, there is only one reasonable reaction from them: launch EVERYTHING while they can.

Certainly. And if they do that, then the only rational response from the West - and by that I mean the US, France, and the UK - is to utterly glass Russia.

... so I'd hope Putin considers that before wantonly nuking Warsaw. Perhaps he won't nuke Warsaw after all.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:26:02 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 01:24:53 PM
Perhaps he won't nuke Warsaw after all.

Well that would be appreciated.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 01:28:06 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:22:41 PM
So, to summarise the discussion between Berkut and Grumbler.

Let's assume it is 2020 and Russia has just nuked Warsaw. President Clinton is advised by General Berkut and General Grumbler. General Berkut is saying that the US should not strike at non-nuclear military targets of Russia, as this carries a too-high-risk of a MAD-triggering response. General grumbler is saying that the US should not strike at nuclear silos of Russia, as this incentives Russia to fire off all of its nukes before they are destroyed - thus triggering a MAD-like response.

Faced with a high risk of the world being annihilated and unable to choose between those two scenarios, President Clinton decides it is better to let NATO collapse and does not respond with a nuclear strike.

Still unlikely?

Yeah, I'd say it's pretty unlikely on part of the US, yes.

Even in the unlikely event that the US backs down - and I think that's a pretty preposterous result, to be frank - I'm pretty sure France would act unilaterally (and possibly force the US' hand at that point). Not sure about the UK.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 01:29:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 11:59:17 AM
Grumbler, I've said it plenty of time before.  Just because I choose not to grumbler-proof my posts for the sake of brevity does not mean that I'm going back on my words when you then proceed to intentionally misinterpret them.  Any piece of communication can be misinterpreted if one tries hard enough.  This is why you're not that good of a poster:  sooner or later, your lack of desire to communicate in good faith will turn make any discussion acrimonious.  It happened countless times, with many posters other than myself, and it will keep happening again.

I interpreted your words exactly as you wrote them.  You backed off ("Maybe I shouldn't have used a technical term in a possibly incorrect way") and then accused me of being a "tool"for responding to what you wrote ("psychotic") rather than "what was intended to be conveyed" (non-psychotic).


QuoteAnd speaking of dishonest, where does replying by proxy after promising to end the discussion rank?

I said I wasn't going to engage you any more on whether the Russian generals were order-obeying psychotic robots.  I didn't say you could  cheapshot me and get away with it.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 01:31:35 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:26:02 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 01:24:53 PM
Perhaps he won't nuke Warsaw after all.

Well that would be appreciated.

Though if it did happen, I guess it wouldn't matter too much to you what happens afterwards.

You know, were I you I'd assume that NATO stands and Putin will lose everything if he strikes at Warsaw. If you're wrong, you'll be equally dead as if you assumed not, but in the meantime you'll have the satisfaction of being able to ignore Putin's attempts at rattling your cage.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 01:32:02 PM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 01:29:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 11:59:17 AM
Grumbler, I've said it plenty of time before.  Just because I choose not to grumbler-proof my posts for the sake of brevity does not mean that I'm going back on my words when you then proceed to intentionally misinterpret them.  Any piece of communication can be misinterpreted if one tries hard enough.  This is why you're not that good of a poster:  sooner or later, your lack of desire to communicate in good faith will turn make any discussion acrimonious.  It happened countless times, with many posters other than myself, and it will keep happening again.

I interpreted your words exactly as you wrote them.  You backed off ("Maybe I shouldn't have used a technical term in a possibly incorrect way") and then accused me of being a "tool"for responding to what you wrote ("psychotic") rather than "what was intended to be conveyed" (non-psychotic).


QuoteAnd speaking of dishonest, where does replying by proxy after promising to end the discussion rank?

I said I wasn't going to engage you any more on whether the Russian generals were order-obeying psychotic robots.  I didn't say you could  cheapshot me and get away with it.

I'm classifying this as a low level tactical exchange then.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: The Brain on September 15, 2014, 01:33:34 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 01:31:35 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:26:02 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 15, 2014, 01:24:53 PM
Perhaps he won't nuke Warsaw after all.

Well that would be appreciated.

Though if it did happen, I guess it wouldn't matter too much to you what happens afterwards.

You know, were I you I'd assume that NATO stands and Putin will lose everything if he strikes at Warsaw. If you're wrong, you'll be equally dead as if you assumed not, but in the meantime you'll have the satisfaction of being able to ignore Putin's attempts at rattling your cage.

Mart is more of the foot locker type.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 01:33:42 PM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 01:20:10 PM
If you target the nuclear capabilities, whether you target the rest of the military or not, they must launch verything while they can. 


I still don't really see how you target their non-nuclear capabilities in a fashion (and with what assets) that make it clear you are not threatening their nuclear forces.


I suspect in many cases (ICBMs being the exception) a lot of those targets are co-located, like sub bases.


And I don't know how we hit a significant portion of their military assets with only air launched nuclear weapons, and I still don't really see how we make it clear to them the current limits of our targetting.


Quote
That is precisely my argument.  If, on the other hand, you punish Russia for the nuking of Warsaw by the nuking of the main naval bases, military formations, and airbases, while leaving their nuclear forces alone, they have to choose between completely disarming themselves by firing their nukes and triggering the response that will end them as a civilization, or else becoming a power with nukes but nothing else.  I don't think Putin would survive politically in the latter situation, but the world would be safe.


I think each time you engage in an escalation, you are giving the other side the opportunity to go the rest of the way where you lose your chance to preemptively remove the existential threat.


Once Russia crosses the initial threshold that has been in place for the last 80 odd years, the only reasonable response given our very situational technical superiority is to go immediate and full counter force.


I don't see another scenario that preservers that narrow superiority. What must be avoided at all costs is having the Russians launch first.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 01:43:02 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:22:41 PM
So, to summarise the discussion between Berkut and Grumbler.

Let's assume it is 2020 and Russia has just nuked Warsaw. President Clinton is advised by General Berkut and General Grumbler. General Berkut is saying that the US should not strike at non-nuclear military targets of Russia, as this carries a too-high-risk of a MAD-triggering response. General grumbler is saying that the US should not strike at nuclear silos of Russia, as this incentives Russia to fire off all of its nukes before they are destroyed - thus triggering a MAD-like response.

Faced with a high risk of the world being annihilated and unable to choose between those two scenarios, President Clinton decides it is better to let NATO collapse and does not respond with a nuclear strike.

Still unlikely?

My understanding is that General Berkut is arguing for a massive thermonuclear strike on the Russian Strategic Rocket Force, with the argument that it is better to get the whole MAD thing going on our terms (i.e. the chance of knocking out the non-ready Russian ICBMs in their holes).  That's the really-big-risk, really-big-reward option.
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2014, 01:45:40 PM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 01:29:16 PM
I interpreted your words exactly as you wrote them.  You backed off ("Maybe I shouldn't have used a technical term in a possibly incorrect way") and then accused me of being a "tool"for responding to what you wrote ("psychotic") rather than "what was intended to be conveyed" (non-psychotic).
Speaking of what I actually wrote, one thing that I didn't write was "psychotic".
Title: Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-
Post by: Berkut on September 15, 2014, 01:52:12 PM
Quote from: grumbler on September 15, 2014, 01:43:02 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 15, 2014, 01:22:41 PM
So, to summarise the discussion between Berkut and Grumbler.

Let's assume it is 2020 and Russia has just nuked Warsaw. President Clinton is advised by General Berkut and General Grumbler. General Berkut is saying that the US should not strike at non-nuclear military targets of Russia, as this carries a too-high-risk of a MAD-triggering response. General grumbler is saying that the US should not strike at nuclear silos of Russia, as this incentives Russia to fire off all of its nukes before they are destroyed - thus triggering a MAD-like response.

Faced with a high risk of the world being annihilated and unable to choose between those two scenarios, President Clinton decides it is better to let NATO collapse and does not respond with a nuclear strike.

Still unlikely?

My understanding is that General Berkut is arguing for a massive thermonuclear strike on the Russian Strategic Rocket Force, with the argument that it is better to get the whole MAD thing going on our terms (i.e. the chance of knocking out the non-ready Russian ICBMs in their holes).  That's the really-big-risk, really-big-reward option.

I think that is a fair characterization with the caveat that I see it is a lower risk option, actually. It is basically saying "lets take the surety of a full scale exchange on our terms because the risk of a full scale exchange NOT on our terms is too great".

A full scale exchange that Russia gets off means probably two hundred million