Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Josquius]

But you're proposing doing exactly what they want and escalating.

What they do or don't want is a factor but only so far as it informs understanding their overall goals and how to stop them achieving them. We shouldn't automatically do the complete opposite just to spite them.

That they want us to start bombing an escalate doesn't mean that option should be totally off the table. But it does mean we have to put a bit of thought into it.

What makes you think they want to escalate?

October 7 and the red sea attacks?

As much as the US and Israel have tried to pin the blame on Iran, it seems the Iranians weren't directly involved.  The Iranians do not appear to want to escalate.  If they did they could done quite a bit more like launch a full strike on Israel from the North, right now they seem to just want the war to end so Hamas survives.  The Houthis attacking shipping might be a way to put pressure on Western governments so they put pressure on the Israelis to stop the war and save Hamas.

This isn't the assessment I'd take.
Everything is going as planned for Iran. Obviously they weren't directly responsible but it's unlikely Hamas would have gone ahead without their support. The timing especially is very convenient for Iran and Russia.
It makes no sense Iran would have cold feet and want to stop now when everything is going the way they expected, support for Ukraine dropping, Israel trashing it's reputation, and the global economy is just starting to feel the pinch.
In Gaza especially the longer Israel stays involved there the happier iran is. There's very little cost to them, they don't have to get directly involved at all, and it's causing a lot of hurt for their enemies and helping out their ally Russia.

[The Minsky Moment]

For the Houthis it may be as simple as the problem that regularly occurs with that kind of militant movement when the conflict that was their raison d'etre winds down.  You are left with lots of heavily armed and under-employed young men with militant world views and a penchant for violence.  If you don't find some outlet for that malign energy, they will find one themselves.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Germany intervenes in South Africa's ICJ case on behalf of Israel, saying South Africa's claims have "no basis in fact" and rejecting them as an attempt to turn ICJ processes into political pawns.

I will note South Africa is a genuine "shit hole" country of corruption and fealty to Russia / China, that has openly supported genocide in the recent past as well as praises genocidal leaders and gives them safe haven in South Africa. SA is not a good actor on the international stage, and lefties should be leery of getting on board with their antisemitic antics.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/germany-says-will-intervene-at-the-hague-on-israels-behalf-blasts-genocide-charge/

Germany says will intervene at The Hague on Israel's behalf, blasts genocide charge
Berlin suggests will intrude in South Africa's primary case in which ICJ will decide if Israel violated Genocide Convention; PM speaks with Scholz, praises 'stance on side of truth'

By AFP, JACOB MAGID and JEREMY SHARON
Today, 8:30 pm

The German government sharply rejected on Friday allegations before the UN's top court that Israel is committing "genocide" in Gaza and warned against "political instrumentalization" of the charge, as it announced it would intervene as a third party before the International Court of Justice.

Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said in a statement that Israel was "defending itself" after the "inhuman" onslaught by Hamas on October 7.

He said Germany would intervene as a third party before the International Court of Justice under an article allowing states to seek clarification on the use of a multilateral convention.

The move allows Germany to present its own case to the court that Israel has not infringed the genocide convention and has not committed or intended to commit genocide.

Germany is not claiming to be legally impacted by South Africa's case and therefore it does not require the ICJ's permission for third-party intervention.

As a signatory of the 1948 Genocide Convention, it has the right to join cases and put forward its arguments on the case. The convention was enacted in the wake of the mass murder of Jews in the Holocaust, and defines genocide as "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group."

Hebestreit stated that Germany "intends to intervene as a third party in the main hearing," suggesting Berlin will intrude in South Africa's primary case against Israel in which the court could take years to decide whether or not Israel has violated the Genocide Convention.

Accordingly, the move does not appear to influence this week's proceedings — hearings where South Africa has requested an interim injunction from the court compelling Israel to implement a ceasefire. A decision on that more immediate matter is expected within one month.

"In light of German history and the crimes against humanity of the Shoah, the German government is particularly committed to the [UN] Genocide Convention," signed in 1948 in the wake of the Holocaust, Hebestreit said.

He said the Convention marked a "central instrument" under international law to prevent another Holocaust.

For this reason, he said, "we stand firmly against a political instrumentalization" of the Convention.

Hebestreit acknowledged diverging views in the international community on Israel's military operation against Hamas in Gaza.

"However the German government decisively and expressly rejects the accusation of genocide brought against Israel before the International Court of Justice," he said.

"The accusation has no basis in fact," he said.

The Prime Minister's Office said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyhau had spoken with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and thanked him for Berlin's decision.

"Your stance and Germany's stance on the side of the truth moves all the citizens of Israel," Netanyahu told Scholz, according to the PMO.

"The blood libel, which is full of hypocrisy and malice, must not be allowed to prevail over the moral principles shared by our two countries and the entire civilized world," Netanyahu said.

Scholz was the first of a number of Western leaders who made solidarity visits in the days after the October 7 onslaught.

Scholz said at the time that his country "has only one place" during the hard times in which the Jewish state finds itself, "and that is alongside Israel." He also stated that Israel has the right and obligation under international law to protect its civilians.

Earlier Friday, Israel's legal team in The Hague attacked the fundamental claims of South Africa's genocide allegations in the International Court of Justice, and punched holes in the accusations that Israel's state organs have genocidal intent against the Palestinians in Gaza during the current conflict with Hamas.

Israel's six legal representatives asserted that the ICJ has no jurisdiction over the complaints brought by South Africa since they relate to the laws of armed conflict, not genocide; argued that "random" inflammatory comments of Israeli politicians did not reflect policy determined in the state bodies making war policy; and insisted that the widespread harm to Palestinian civilians during the war was a result of Hamas's massive use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes, and not genocidal acts.

They also underlined in depth the steps Israel has taken to warn civilians to evacuate from Israel Defense Forces operational areas and to provide humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians, including facilitating the establishment of field hospitals in Gaza to aid Gazans and mitigate harm to them.

The war was triggered by the October 7 Hamas-led massacre, when some 3,000 terrorists burst across the border by land, air and sea, killing some 1,200 people and seizing over 240 hostages of all ages.

Vowing to destroy the terror group after the devastating assault, Israel launched a wide-scale military campaign in Gaza, which the Hamas-run health ministry has said killed over 23,000 people since. These figures cannot be independently verified, and are believed to include both civilians and Hamas members killed in Gaza, including as a consequence of terror groups' own rocket misfires. The IDF says it has killed over 8,500 operatives in Gaza, in addition to some 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I will note South Africa is a genuine "shit hole" country of corruption and fealty to Russia / China, that has openly supported genocide in the recent past as well as praises genocidal leaders and gives them safe haven in South Africa. SA is not a good actor on the international stage, and lefties should be leery of getting on board with their antisemitic antics.

a lesson the lefties in belgium need to learn, forthwith.

[Razgovory]

This isn't the assessment I'd take.
Everything is going as planned for Iran. Obviously they weren't directly responsible but it's unlikely Hamas would have gone ahead without their support. The timing especially is very convenient for Iran and Russia.
It makes no sense Iran would have cold feet and want to stop now when everything is going the way they expected, support for Ukraine dropping, Israel trashing it's reputation, and the global economy is just starting to feel the pinch.
In Gaza especially the longer Israel stays involved there the happier iran is. There's very little cost to them, they don't have to get directly involved at all, and it's causing a lot of hurt for their enemies and helping out their ally Russia.

Iran has called for a ceasefire.  If the war continues they'll lose an ally they've invested a lot of time and money on.  The Iranians have not shown any appetite for direct conflict with the US, which is what further escalation entails.

[Tamas]

Time for my usual rant again. Guardian live coverage;s BIG FRONT PAGE NEWS:

All maritime navigation in danger after US strikes on Yemen, Hezbollah warns
The Lebanese-based Iranian backed group, Hezbollah, has said the US was mistaken if it believed Yemen's Houthis would stop confronting Israel in the Red Sea, warning that American actions there had endangered all maritime navigation.

Describing US and British strikes on Yemen as an act of stupidity, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the Houthis would continue targeting ships belonging to Israel and going to its ports, Reuters reports.

Why is it necessary to treat such a ridiculous comment with any sort of prominence? When Trump says something stupid there's always an explanation of how that is incorrect. In this case, it's a ludicrous claim that the Houthis have a way of telling which cargo ship over there in the distance has israeli owernship or cargo bound to of from Israel. Even if we get over that, is it then the US' fault that the Houthis forgo their telepathic abilities and start targeting ships indiscriminately?

BTW has there been any new attack on cargo ships since the airstrikes?

[Razgovory]

They took a swing at a Russian tanker and missed.  The Houthis have access to the internet, there are websites for monitoring ships and they can find out who owns them.  The Russian ship seems to have been attacked because of old data.  Or the Houthis are just attacking ships randomly.  

 Nasrallah wants to look big putting out statements, but all he is saying is the Houthis will continue attacks.  He doesn't seem to want to actually get involved in this fight.

[celedhring]

Yeah, if I can track the boats carrying my kickstarter boardgames, the houtis can track what boats are crossing in front of them. I don't think they give much of a damn what they fire on, though.

[Tamas]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/16/iran-launches-airstrikes-on-sunni-militant-bases-in-pakistan

I am eagerly awaiting the various "this is a dangerous escalation" news and articles from The Guardian like we had with the US and the UK defending international shipping.

[jimmy olsen]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/16/iran-launches-airstrikes-on-sunni-militant-bases-in-pakistan

I am eagerly awaiting the various "this is a dangerous escalation" news and articles from The Guardian like we had with the US and the UK defending international shipping.

Speaking of escalation...
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1747733137000472579
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1747801044644405479
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1747805708823724058

Very concerning chatter about an escalating crisis between #Iran & #Pakistan tonight, as:

- Both militaries mobilize on the border
- Pakistani fighter jets buzz the Iranian border
- Hurried Chinese mediation breaks down.

All since #Iran's Jan 16 missile attack on #Balochistan.

BREAKING - #huge explosion just reported inside the #IRGC base outside Saravan in #Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan (~25km from #Pakistan).

Comes amid acute tensions on the #Iran-#Pakistan border, since #Iran's missile strike in #Baluchistan on Jan 16.

NEW -- #Pakistan's military confirms military action (missile strikes) inside #Iran, targeting "bases belonging to terrorist separatist groups."

Unclear if local claims of an #IRGC base are accurate *and/or* the target was a Balochi group, like BLA.

[Razgovory]

On the Pdox boards (which I have sorta come back to), there was one of those guys going on about his refusal to support the continued "American Hegemony".  You assholes are dangerously close to getting what you want.  One of these days we won't be able to keep a lid on this kind of thing and the world will be in a word of shit.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

On the Pdox boards (which I have sorta come back to), there was one of those guys going on about his refusal to support the continued "American Hegemony".  You assholes are dangerously close to getting what you want.  One of these days we won't be able to keep a lid on this kind of thing and the world will be in a word of shit.

Indeed, people whining about "us hegemony" don't know what they're saying. Or maybe they do, in which case they're some shade of bad

[Razgovory]

So in the US the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is increasing framed as a conflict between indigenous people vs non-indigenous people. (It's also framed as a battle against white supremacy but let's not get into that can of worms right now) I was curious why Arabs are indigenous and Jews are not. What I found was the "indigenous" is fairly confusing, incoherent mess that doesn't seem to mean what I thought it meant. In fact, I'm not actually clear what it means, but I found a strange statistic. According to the UN https://www.un.org/en/fight-racism/...n, at least in,non-dominant sector of society.

475 million indigenous people in the world or 6.2% of the population of the world. The rest of the population is... not indigenous? I'm an American of European ancestry so I didn't expect to be considered indigenous. But I guess I'm not indigenous to Europe and neither are the Europeans. Or at least not most to them. The Roma are indigenous though. I thought they were fairly new comers. This is really confusing. Helpfully the UN declaration on the rights of the Indigenous doesn't define Indigenous, but the UN does know how many there are.

So is anyone indigenous to Palestine?

[Josquius]

Key to the UN definition is that they're minorities distinct from the communities around them.

That say Germans are indingenous to Germany is pretty "well duh" and not worth noting. They're the majority. They have all the power. The country is called Germany. Everyone knows them.
 The Sorbs on the other hand? Easy for the world to just ignore their existence which if the German government was a bit nationalist inclined wouldn't be very nice for them.

The Palestinians are a bit different to most indigineous peoples under the UN definition by virtue of their sheer size. But they do share the traits of not having political power and inhabiting a small area under the rule of the empowered majority.

Usually this majority can be "indigenous" itself like the Germans. It's not the "we were here first" factor that really matters with the definition.
But most Israelis obviously aren't. They're largely descendents of colonists from within the past century.

Which puts them in a very fuzzy place right now. They can't just be kicked out and told to go home as they are home. They were born there. So long has passed now. But at the same time the events that led to Israels creation aren't firmly something for the history books, the direct impact is still hitting today and an acceptable resolution hasn't been reached

[Razgovory]

As I said before the UN has no definition. the Jews might have been indigenous to Palestine if they few and powerless and oppressed.  Which is how the world prefers them I suppose.  Still it interesting that "indigenous" has nothing really to do with being indigenous in the real sense of the world.  It's about power and posturing. The recent massacre has been so illuminating.