Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Sheilbh]

Lion of Jordan by Avi Shlaim about him is excellent. Really interesting and Hussein is a fascinating figure.

I think Tito is a great comparison.

[viper37]

I'm not sure what it is about Herzog that makes people so eager to outright lie about what he says and then ignore what he clearly did say.

...a reporter asked Herzog to clarify whether he meant to say that since Gazans did not remove Hamas from power "that makes them, by implication, legitimate targets," Herzog said, "No, I didn't say that."

The Wire
I guess that the anti-Israel types lack the evidence to support their wild claims and so lie about the evidence that exists because they have no choice.

"It is not true this rhetoric about civilians not being aware, not involved. It's absolutely not true. They could have risen up. They could have fought against that evil regime which took over Gaza in a coup d'etat."

International law is clear that belligerents who fail to distinguish between combatants and civilians are guilty of war crimes.

The report says that when a reporter asked Herzog to clarify whether he meant to say that since Gazans did not remove Hamas from power "that makes them, by implication, legitimate targets," Herzog said, "No, I didn't say that."

However, he followed up with a telling question: "When you have a missile in your goddamn kitchen and you want to shoot it at me, am I allowed to defend myself?"


I think it's pretty clear what he means.

[viper37]

Not to mention that to use a quote from one guy in a purely ceremonial position and then use that to argue that the entire "high level Israeli leadership" does not recognize any distinction between civilian and combatant is highly disingenuous.

A purely ceremonial position like the Queen of England.  If the Queen had declared that all Irish were legitimate targets during the troubles with the IRA and no one in the British government contradicted the statement, what should people believe?

Come on.  Let's be honest here.  We know a lot of people in this government are clamoring for Palestinians death and expulsion.  You've said yourself many times Israel had lost its moral compass.  But now suddenly, after an horrible attack, we're supposed to believe these same people are exercising extreme restraint?  Let's be serious here.

You know as well as I do the goal here is to clear the territory of Palestinians to make them someone else's problem.  Kill enough to scare 'em into leaving.  Hamas is just a pretext.

Hamas is a mortal enemy.  Why leave the frontier undefended?  Why let Quataris enter with suitcase full of cash? Why constantly weaken the one credible enemy of Hamas?  Netanyahu has underestimated the threat Hamas posed and it blew in its face, costing the lives of 1400 people left to fend for themselves, dying in horrible ways.  And those who pay for his mistakes are Palestinian civilians and a few hundred Hamas fighters, at most.  Israel so far has reported how many Hamas commanders death? 2? 3 ? 5?  For how many thousand civilians?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, has vowed to "destroy" the Gaza-based militant group Hamas, which is considered a terrorist group by the US, the EU, Germany and other countries, after it orchestrated a terrorist attack against Israeli civilians last weekend.


"I emphasise that this is only the beginning," he said in a rare statement televised on Friday.
As Israeli airstrikes hit Gaza on Friday, Palestinians fled south in cars, trucks and donkey carts on the main road leading out of Gaza City.
At the same time, Israeli airstrikes on evacuating vehicles killed at least 70 people, the Hamas press office said, according to the Associated Press.

Bombing evacuating trucks because...?  There were Hamas fighters shooting rockets in there?  C'mon.  The lie is big here.  Don't tell you believe all that crap.

It's strange that sometimes the IDF seems to know exactly where Hamas is, and some other times, they need to bomb everywhere there are civilians.  It's as if, the objective was different than what they're telling the medias.  But how could it be?   I wonder if...  Maybe, just maybe, we should revisit their past declarations?

[Razgovory]

Viper, how would you deal with Hamas in Gaza today.  Not 10-20 years ago, today.  What would you do right now if you were in the Israelis shoes?

[viper37]

There's a smarter way to eliminate Hamas

Israel's strategy for defeating Hamas — destroying its military and political capabilities to the point where the terrorist group can never again launch major attacks against Israeli civilians — is unlikely to work.

Indeed, Israel is likely already producing more terrorists than it's killing.
To defeat terrorist groups like Hamas, it is important to separate the terrorists from the local population from which they emerge. Otherwise, the current generation of terrorists can be killed, only to be replaced by a new, larger generation of terrorists in the future. (This is described by experts as "counterinsurgency mathematics." )
Although the principle — of separating the terror group from the broader population — is simple, it is incredibly difficult to achieve in practice.
This is why Israel and the United States have waged major military operations that killed large numbers of existing terrorists in the near term — but ultimately led to the rise of many more terrorists, often in a matter of months.

Exactly this pattern happened in the past when:
1.)  Israel invaded Southern Lebanon with some 78,000 combat troops and almost 3,000 tanks and armored vehicles in June 1982.
The goal was to smash PLO terrorists, and Israel achieved significant near-term success. However, this military operation caused the creation of Hezbollah in July 1982, led to vast local support for Hezbollah and waves of suicide attacks and ultimately led to the withdrawal of Israel's army from much of southern Lebanon in 1985 and the growth of Hezbollah ever since.

2.)  Israel maintained a heavy military occupation of Gaza and the West Bank from the early 1990s to 2005.
These operations succeeded in killing many terrorists from Hamas and other Palestinian groups, but also triggered vast local support for the terrorist groups and massive campaigns of suicide attacks against Israelis that stopped only when the heavy Israeli military forces left. Far from defeated, Hamas won the 2006 Palestinian elections.

3.)  Israel launched a ground offensive into Lebanon in July-August 2006.
Although the goal was to completely destroy Hezbollah's leaders and fighters so that it could never again kidnap Israeli soldiers and launch missiles at Israeli cities, the Israeli offensive failed, and Hezbollah is vastly stronger today as a result.

4.)  The United States invaded and occupied Iraq in 2003 with 150,000 combat troops.
American forces completely defeated Saddam Hussein's army within 6 weeks. However, these heavy military operations led to the largest suicide terrorist campaign in modern times, a major civil war in Iraq and ultimately, the rise of ISIS.

Is history repeating in Gaza 2023?
In Gaza, this tragic pattern is probably already happening. Right now, we are witnessing not the separation of Hamas and the local population, but the growing integration of the two, with likely growing recruitment for Hamas.
The Israeli order for 1.1 million Palestinians — the population of northern Gaza — to move south is not going to create meaningful separation between the terrorists and the population.
Many thousands cannot move because they are too young, too old, or too sick or injured and dependent on specialized care and hospitals. Hence, evacuating the entire civilian population of northern Gaza is not possible. Even if the civilian population did move, many Hamas fighters would simply go with them.
Moreover, Hamas has ordered civilians not to evacuate. Since Hamas and the civilian population remain tightly integrated, it is no surprise that Israeli operations to kill Hamas terrorists has led to the death of over 8,000 civilians, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Ramallah, citing sources from Hamas-controlled Gaza. Virtually all have family members who are already likely being recruited by Hamas in large numbers.
We should expect that Hamas is thus growing stronger, not weaker, with every passing day.
So, what does work?
To defeat terrorist groups, it is crucial to engage in long campaigns of selective pressure, over years, not simply a month (or two, or three) of heavy ground operations, and to combine military operations with political solutions from early on.
Indeed, the very effort to finish off the terrorists in just a month or two militarily with little idea of the political outcome — as Israel appears to be doing now — is what ends up producing more terrorists than it kills.
The only way to create lasting damage to terrorists is to combine, typically in a long campaign of years, sustained selective attacks against identified terrorists with political operations that drive wedges between the terrorists and the local populations from which they come.
Israel is drawing comparisons with the defeat of ISIS, but it is important to remember that Muslim ground forces made an enormous difference by applying military pressure against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, over years, in ways that did not galvanize the local population to replace them, by allowing the local populations to effectively govern the area cleansed of terrorists.
The campaign that defeated ISIS joined military and political operations together practically from the beginning.
Going forward, Israel needs a new strategic conception for defeating Hamas. The only viable way to separate Hamas from the local population is politically.
Israel's strategic vision has been to go in heavily militarily first and then figure out the political process later. But this is likely to integrate Hamas and the local population together more and more and to produce more terrorists than it kills.
Furthermore, Israel doesn't appear to have a political plan for the period after eliminating Hamas. Since 2006, Hamas has been the only government in Gaza. Israel claims it does not want to govern Gaza, but Gaza will need to be governed, and Israel has yet to explain what a post-Hamas Gaza will look like.
What will prevent Hamas 2.0 from filling the power vacuum? Given the absence of serious political alternatives to Hamas, why should Palestinians abandon Hamas?

There is an alternative: now, not later, start the political process toward a pathway to a Palestinian state, and create a viable political alternative for Palestinians to Hamas.
This could, over time, separate Hamas from the local population more and more, and so lead to significant success. It must be the Palestinians who decide who leads Gaza.
This new strategic conception is the best way to defeat Hamas, secure Israel's population and advance America's interests in the region.
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[Razgovory]

I kinda thought you would respond in your own words.

[Jacob]

I understand Israeli reactions to the atrocities carried out against its civilian population.

Today I saw a video of a five year old girl crying at a hospital in Gaza because she was sure her sister had died in the rubble from which she'd been pulled. I'm not sure how I'd react if that was my life, but I expect Hamas recruitment is going to be fine for years to come no matter how many are killed in the current battles.

I don't presume to tell Isralis nor Palestinians what to do or feel, but I don't expect the current Israeli attack on Gaza will produce positive results for any of the parties - long term or short term.

[Barrister]

I don't presume to tell Isralis nor Palestinians what to do or feel, but I don't expect the current Israeli attack on Gaza will produce positive results for any of the parties - long term or short term.

I don't know because I don't know what Israel is planning to do right now.

I certainly agree that if the plan is to just pound gaza for a few months, kill some terrorists (and inevitably civilians) then leave again then nothing will be accomplished long-term.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't know because I don't know what Israel is planning to do right now.

I certainly agree that if the plan is to just pound gaza for a few months, kill some terrorists (and inevitably civilians) then leave again then nothing will be accomplished long-term.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.  How many of us would proudly sport star of David pins if Israel announced they planned to occupy Gaza indefinitely?

Israel conquers the WB and Gaza and they get decades of terrorism and Hamas and international condemnation.  Israel goes into Lebanon and withdraws, and gets decades of cross border attacks.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think some of you have misunderstood counterinsurgency. "Man we hate what our enemy did, so we're going to keep fighting", is not normally enough to sustain meaningful military activities.

Israel literally occupies the West Bank, and residents of the West Bank have tons of grievances against Israel, hate Israel massively--and in some number join terrorist groups.

Israel occupied Gaza from 1968-2005 or so and that same calculus applied.

Hamas controls an entire city, this is like ISIS controlled cities in Iraq and Syria. This allows for an entirely different scale of operations.

I can assure you that Hamas removed of its possession of a city will not be capable of stockpiling the resources, mobilizing forces en masse, etc that would be required to do a repeat of 10/7.

I think people often confuse lessons learned from American low manpower occupations of very large countries, as though it teaches certain truisms about insurgencies that aren't universally applicable. Gaza is small and can be controlled by Israel, it has been before.

Hamas cannot operate as it does now without control of Gaza.

The fact that it would continue to operate as a small terrorist group would not be dramatically different from the situation in the West Bank, which has never produced anything approaching 10/7.

[FunkMonk]

It does feel like Hamas will be the big winners in this, after all is said and done.

It is very sad.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't know because I don't know what Israel is planning to do right now.

I certainly agree that if the plan is to just pound gaza for a few months, kill some terrorists (and inevitably civilians) then leave again then nothing will be accomplished long-term.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.  How many of us would proudly sport star of David pins if Israel announced they planned to occupy Gaza indefinitely?

Israel conquers the WB and Gaza and they get decades of terrorism and Hamas and international condemnation.  Israel goes into Lebanon and withdraws, and gets decades of cross border attacks.

Most likely, and we only know this with hindsight--Israel should have maintained the occupation of Gaza in line with the West Bank.

10/7, which would never be possible in the West Bank, was more Israeli dead than I think the last like 30 years of Intifadas and terrorist attacks combine. It is of such a huge scale that it strongly raises the question as to whether Israel was ever smart to withdraw from Gaza.

Lebanon is more complex--Israel could not really stay there forever, but I think a major strategic mistake has occurred in the United States not doing more to stop the growth of Iranian militias throughout the Middle East.

We have largely done nothing about it because any solution has costs we didn't want to pay, but we now have significant Iranian militias causing problems in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq--in Yemen and Lebanon they significantly destabilize the country, in Iraq they partially do, and in Syria they helped keep a chemical weapons using genocidist in power.

It raises serious questions if American policy needs called into question. A canard is peace in the Middle East can never occur until the Israel-Palestine conflict is settled, but it looks increasingly likely to me you can never get back to a path to peace on that conflict as long as Iran is running proxy forces in half a dozen countries.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It does feel like Hamas will be the big winners in this, after all is said and done.

It is very sad.

Yeah, similar to how ISIS was the big winner after the Arab Spring.

(Oh wait, ISIS has largely been destroyed.)

ISIS was destroyed because its power became directly linked to controlling cities, which were then taken from them.

Hamas power is directly linked to controlling Gaza, which is being taken away from them.

Hamas isn't going to come out of this as a winner, remotely.

Iran is likely the main beneficiary of this, but will lose Hamas control of Gaza as a consequence. But this also gives them more room to continue arming and beefing up Hezbollah and other militias.

[PJL]

Honestly at this point, permanent Israeli occupation of both the West Bank & Gaza bankrolled by the US seems to be the only feasible solution to the situation. Can't see a UN style administration being set up in Gaza, and the West Bank will be as before.

Then there's Southern Lebanon, should Israel permanently occupy that too? For all the talk of the Palestinians being penned in by the Israelis, so too are the Israelis penned in by the Arab states, all of whom have fought Israel within living memory. What holds true for Palestine goes for Israel too. Plus the massive trauma of the Holocaust for Israel. It's like a never ending story of the bullied becoming the bully and vice versa.

[FunkMonk]

Yeah, it feels increasingly like Israel's best option now is occupying Gaza again.

It's very depressing.