Israel-Hamas War 2023

[OttoVonBismarck]

It's possible to say at the same time that Likud did not "cause" Hamas to arise to gain influence and yet also say that its tactics aided Hamas in its rise to power. And I agree that Bibi's position against PA administration in Gaza is a doubling down of that obviously failed policy.

I don't disagree with this--but it should be noted there is a subtle, but important, difference from the broad view that Israeli policy feeds Palestinian resistance  and the "Axis of Resistance" view being promoted by its two representatives here (Josq and Viper) that Netanyahu somehow shat Hamas out of his ass decades before he was premier, and is now being justly punished for it.

The consequence is a malign feedback loop, where Likud's pro-settler policy ensures settler support for Bibi while at the same time augmenting the ranks of the settlers and thus increasing their political clout.

I mostly agree with the rest of your post--but I would add, part of the reason Netanyahu has had the "space" to build these coalitions is the political collapse of the Israeli left and center left. After the early 2000s intifada and the broad view that Oslo was a mistake, it became very difficult for non-rightists to win enough votes in elections to form a government in Israel; and at its core that political situation has to change for the feedback loop you mentioned to have a chance of being interrupted.

[Sheilbh]

It's almost like Bibi fucking wants Hamas in control of Gaza.

I think he did. If you want to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state the best way to do it is to keep the Palestinians divided and to deprecate the effectiveness of the two state Palestinians and build up the radicals. As Smotrich put it - if your goal is one Israeli state, then the PA are a liability and Hamas are an asset. I think this has been demonstrated in the ongoing humiliation of the PA in the West Bank v the funding and work visas provided to Hamas in Gaza through back channel talks with Qatar and Egypt, which always shoot up when Netanyahu is in office (and which was, ultimately, a vector for the attacks).

For that strategy to work there are two conditions though. One is that the conflict with Palestinians keeps at a low enough level to not cause issues for Israel's western allies support, or to get in the way of closer economic and eventually military integration with Arab states in regional politics against Iran. The other is that it only works if Hamas do not represent a real threat - if they are nullified and can just ineffectively fire a few rockets (which Iron Dome can intercept).

7 October ended those two conditions that are necessary for Netanyahu's strategy to work (at least for now). It's why I think they do want to ethnically cleanse/population transfer Gaza because that allows them to meet their goal of no Palestinian state, ongoing settlements etc but are constrained by the US and Egypt and Arab states generally. The only alternative is some form of non-Hamas Palestinian authority capable of governing Gaza, but that will undermine the political obective of the Likud right and their coalition partners. Building that alternative up is impossible with a maximalist settlement policy.

[The Minsky Moment]

There has been a long-term rightward drift in Israeli politics dating back to the 70s. Bibi himself has shifted rightward to accommodate ever more extremist coalition allies and the effective opposition is now Gantz who is a center-right figure.  The Israeli left has virtually no political representation anymore.

[viper37]

This ignores the simple reality that whatever the Israelis "felt" about Hamas, they didn't create Hamas or prop it up--they didn't turn Hamas into the militant force it is today. Lots of Iranian and Qatari money did that, and the only way Israel could have stopped it would have been military intervention in the strip--the very thing you are so against right now.

You conveniently ignore the inconvenient truth because it suits you.  Who allowed the Qatari money into Gaza?  Who allowed the Palestinians people to get an unprecedented number of work permits and why?

Why was they main person bringing that money was stopped and then allowed to go into Gaza with that money?

Keep asking the questions and maybe you'll find the answer some day.  Until you decide to remove that blindfold of yours, I don't think it's useful to keep discussing with you. 

[Razgovory]

 The things thing that Bibi did to "help" Hamas are what is critics have been demanding the Israeli government do for 15 years.  Allow more stuff into Gaza and let Gazans come into Israel.

[Tamas]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-mp-dies-after-suffering-heart-attack-parliament-2023-12-14/

An opposition Turkish lawmaker died on Thursday, two days after suffering a heart attack and collapsing in front of parliament as he finished a speech criticising the government's policy toward Israel.

He had been criticising President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party (AKP) over Turkey's ongoing trade with Israel despite the war in Gaza, and despite the government's sharp rhetorical criticism of Israel's military bombardment.

This should make religious people re-evaluate their choice of deity.

[HVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-mp-dies-after-suffering-heart-attack-parliament-2023-12-14/

An opposition Turkish lawmaker died on Thursday, two days after suffering a heart attack and collapsing in front of parliament as he finished a speech criticising the government's policy toward Israel.

He had been criticising President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party (AKP) over Turkey's ongoing trade with Israel despite the war in Gaza, and despite the government's sharp rhetorical criticism of Israel's military bombardment.

This should make religious people re-evaluate their choice of deity.

Allah struck him down. Maybe you should consider converting to Islam

[Tamas]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-mp-dies-after-suffering-heart-attack-parliament-2023-12-14/

An opposition Turkish lawmaker died on Thursday, two days after suffering a heart attack and collapsing in front of parliament as he finished a speech criticising the government's policy toward Israel.

He had been criticising President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party (AKP) over Turkey's ongoing trade with Israel despite the war in Gaza, and despite the government's sharp rhetorical criticism of Israel's military bombardment.

This should make religious people re-evaluate their choice of deity.

Allah struck him down. Maybe you should consider converting to Islam

Quite the contrary he was invoking Allah's wrath on those too lenient with Israel. It was the Jewish god striking him down, clearly.

[Duque de Bragança]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-mp-dies-after-suffering-heart-attack-parliament-2023-12-14/

An opposition Turkish lawmaker died on Thursday, two days after suffering a heart attack and collapsing in front of parliament as he finished a speech criticising the government's policy toward Israel.

He had been criticising President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party (AKP) over Turkey's ongoing trade with Israel despite the war in Gaza, and despite the government's sharp rhetorical criticism of Israel's military bombardment.

This should make religious people re-evaluate their choice of deity.

Allah struck him down. Maybe you should consider converting to Islam

Quite the contrary he was invoking Allah's wrath on those too lenient with Israel. It was the Jewish god striking him down, clearly.

Works fine both ways for HVC, our resident crypto-Moor and crypto-Jew. 

[HVC]

And raised catholic. I'm a lock for heaven 

[HVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-mp-dies-after-suffering-heart-attack-parliament-2023-12-14/

An opposition Turkish lawmaker died on Thursday, two days after suffering a heart attack and collapsing in front of parliament as he finished a speech criticising the government's policy toward Israel.

He had been criticising President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party (AKP) over Turkey's ongoing trade with Israel despite the war in Gaza, and despite the government's sharp rhetorical criticism of Israel's military bombardment.

This should make religious people re-evaluate their choice of deity.

Allah struck him down. Maybe you should consider converting to Islam

Quite the contrary he was invoking Allah's wrath on those too lenient with Israel. It was the Jewish god striking him down, clearly.

Clearly allah for misappropriating his wrath. Yahweh would have turned him into a pillar of salt or something.


Old Testament god was the cool god.

[Duque de Bragança]

And raised catholic. I'm a lock for heaven 

You should await the Tribunal do Santo Ofício's verdict on you, just to be sure. 

[HVC]

And raised catholic. I'm a lock for heaven 

You should await the Tribunal do Santo Ofício's verdict on you, just to be sure. 

Like pombal said, if you got rid of all the convert Jews and Moores from Portugal you'd have no one left

[Valmy]

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-palestinians-opinion-poll-wartime-views-a0baade915619cd070b5393844bc4514

So here we go!

A wartime opinion poll among Palestinians published Wednesday shows a rise in support for Hamas, which appears to have ticked up even in the devastated Gaza Strip, and an overwhelming rejection of Western-backed President Mahmoud Abbas, with nearly 90% saying he must resign.

Ok so I have been told constantly that the 2006 election didn't mean anything and blah blah well guess what? 40%+ Palestinians love Hamas and support their vision of endless war against Israel. They don't want anything to do with Biden and our governments endless quest for a peaceful two state solution. It is never going to happen.

And hey guess what?

Washington has called for the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, currently led by Abbas, to eventually assume control of Gaza and run both territories as a precursor to statehood. U.S. officials have said the PA must be revitalized, without letting on whether this would mean leadership changes.

And our good buddies over in Israel?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the most right-wing government in Israel's history, has soundly rejected any role for the PA in Gaza and insists Israel must retain open-ended security control there.

They do not support us at all in our objectives. And we are supporting them why? Israel is clearly not an ally but an enemy in achieving our goals.

Goals that neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis want.

And the Arab States we want to act as a peacekeeping force?

Arab allies of the U.S. have said they'll only get involved in post-war reconstruction if there's a credible push toward a two-state solution, which is unlikely under the Netanyahu government dominated by opponents of Palestinian statehood.

With survey results indicating a further erosion of the PA's legitimacy, at a time when there's no apparent path toward restarting credible negotiations on Palestinian statehood, the default for postwar Gaza is an open-ended Israeli occupation, pollster Khalil Shikaki said.

The only reason they are even pretending to cooperate with us is because they know our position is detached from reality and will never happen.

At the same time, 44% in the West Bank said they supported Hamas, up from just 12% in September. In Gaza, the militants enjoyed 42% support, up slightly from 38% three months ago.

Shikaki said support for the PA declined further, with nearly 60% now saying it should be dissolved. In the West Bank, Abbas' continued security coordination with Israel's military against Hamas, his bitter political rival, is widely unpopular.

Yes clearly Hamas being defeated and the PA being put in power as a foundation for a Palestinian State is a totally realistic goal. It is even further away now than it was in 2006. Clearly Hamas would win big if a new election was called.

What is Biden and Washington doing? Not only are they dangerously tilting at windmills, trying to advance a policy that has very little support in either Palestine or Israel, but we are paying a huge price for it both internationally and domestically. This unpopular move right before the 2024 election? Biden is putting the future of the United States in jeopardy for Israel and Palestine, neither of which are friends of ours.

I just do not understand why we insist on spending time and resources getting involved in conflicts where we have no friends and no support for our objectives. What are we doing?

Ukraine is right there in a fight we support and need them to be successful at. Our allies in the Far East are opposing Chinese bullshit and their interests are in line with ours. That is where we need to be spending political capital and resources.

Why support a supposed ally that is, in fact, opposed to our interests? That is opposed to our objectives? We shouldn't do anything. Israel and Palestine should have no support from us until they align with what we want, or at least we find what they want acceptable.

It just makes me so frustrated. What are we doing?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I mean, we don't generally run foreign policy based on opinion polls. Maybe this is something you're just now learning.

Israel and the PA have actually signed treaties that we helped negotiate committing themselves to the two state solution. AFAIK Israel has never formally reneged on that. Have they ideologically reneged on it? Sure. But it isn't unreasonable that the United States continues to work under the framework of agreed treaties, particularly since the two state solution represents the American foreign policy establishments "best guess" at how the situation can ultimately resolve.

That doesn't mean there may not be some better option, but if there is, none have come close to being agreed upon.

I also would argue you shouldn't put too much stock into wartime polls to begin with. I'm pretty anti-Palestinian in general, and even I think there is an exaggerated "rally around the flag effect" going on with Hamas. It is not easy to have perspective on the situation when your people are being bombed.