Recent posts

#11

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Grey Fox - May 15, 2024, 07:13:35 PM

Isn't one of the big issues with modern polling that it is conducted via landlines only which tends to skew toward older and rural folks with those demographics being much redder than the voting population as a whole?

No.

There are faults with polling, but they have not relied on landlines only for years and years.

Proof: I am somehow on a list of people that answers pollsters, so I get calls pretty regularly.  A few years ago we were the Canadian equivalent of Nielson family that tracked our TV viewership.

Anyways - the fact I am regularly called by pollsters, as a middle-aged, middle-class cis-hetero white guy, might reflect a certain bias.

But they only ever call my cell phone.

I'm on a list too, I signed up for it. I've never had a land line of my own.

I'm also a middle-aged middle-class cis-hetero white guy and yet our politics are nothing alike.

#12

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Jacob - May 15, 2024, 06:50:47 PM

The Danish league end play is pretty intense, with four clubs in close contention.

Brøndby IF (currently #1, 30 matches, 59 points) just beat FC Nordsjælland (currently #4, 30 matches, 56 points).

Tomorrow FC København are playing FC Midtjylland (currently #2 and #3, 29 matches, 58 points). A win will put either team in the #1 position, a tie will see three clubs at 59 points with 30 matches played.

There are 32 matches in total. Given the schedule, any of the top four clubs have paths to victory; and the determination could potentially be made on the last day.

Exciting times

#13

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Jacob - May 15, 2024, 06:33:35 PM

There definitely seems to be a concerted social media effort to depict it as a battle between "two grandpas" with little difference between the two of them.

#14

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Josquius - May 15, 2024, 06:07:14 PM

I'm not in the US and Purley looking from far away.... But I get vibes that there's a fair bit of lethargy about the election?

Tinfoil hat on but I do wonder if this is republican tactics. As well as energising the shit bags to get out and vote getting everyone else thinking both candidates are crap and there's no point.

#15

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Jacob - May 15, 2024, 05:02:26 PM

Thanks!

Less dire than I feared, it seems, but still not great.

#16

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - May 15, 2024, 05:00:15 PM

So Minsky, how big is the risk of blatant and significant voter fraud in your view?

Voter fraud is really rare. I don't think there is much risk there. Voter suppression is a much bigger concern, especially in states controlled by GOP legislatures and governors. Cutting down polling places in Democrat leaning areas, eliminating or reducing absentee ballots, disqualifying voters on bogus pretexts. The other unknown is to what extent there will be effort to intimidate election workers in swing states. There were various efforts in 2020 but not well organized. A more concerted effort could cause real problems, especially if aided and abetted by sympathetic local or state law enforcement.

Also, while the electoral count act reduces the options for nonsense in the Congressional count, it still leaves open a a key vulnerability - the certificate of ascertainment which is issued by the governor of each state.  The risk is that a rogue governor simply crosses out the vote in his state and signs a bogus certificate. Looking at the swing states, Democratic governors are in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Brian Kemp is a Republican in Georgia but was not sympathetic to Trump's election stealing efforts in 2020. Joe Lomabrdo was elected governor in Nevada; don't know much about him. He was endorsed by Trump in his election, but hasn't had enthusiastic things to say about his presidential run.  I don't see him trying to overturn an election result by transmitting a bogus certificate of ascertainment.  So I am cautiously optimistic on this front, but it is a little scary that we have to count heads this way and that so much depends on the personality of individual state governors.

#17

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - May 15, 2024, 03:43:18 PM

https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/europa/algemeen/slovaakse-premier-fico-in-kritieke-toestand-na-politieke-aanslag/10546583.html

In dutch but I'm sure it'll be all over:

Slovak PM Fico has survived what might be an attempt at (non-professional) assassination.

#18

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Barrister - May 15, 2024, 03:24:43 PM

Is it just me (does Google have me wrongly profiled?) or is the Internet very Indian these days?
Basic searches without qualifiers will often prioritise very Indian results for me.
Such as when I wanted to find out what ntr meant having read a comment about manhwa saying this was way too common - turns out it's some Indian actor....
It actually means cheating and is a Japanese porn term which seems to have found use for the act in general. Who knew.

I think that's just the crazy thing about algorithms.

Make a couple of the wrong searches and it can have you pegged as someone with wildly different interests then you actually have.

I notice this most on Twitter - I click on seemingly crazy posts just to see what people are saying, but now Twitter seems to think I am wildly racist, but the same thing happens to a lesser degree on Google or Youtube.

#19

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Barrister - May 15, 2024, 03:21:26 PM

Isn't one of the big issues with modern polling that it is conducted via landlines only which tends to skew toward older and rural folks with those demographics being much redder than the voting population as a whole?

No.

There are faults with polling, but they have not relied on landlines only for years and years.

Proof: I am somehow on a list of people that answers pollsters, so I get calls pretty regularly.  A few years ago we were the Canadian equivalent of Nielson family that tracked our TV viewership.

Anyways - the fact I am regularly called by pollsters, as a middle-aged, middle-class cis-hetero white guy, might reflect a certain bias.

But they only ever call my cell phone.

#20

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Barrister - May 15, 2024, 03:17:54 PM

Ultimately it all comes down to the USSC.  It does have a 6-3 conservative majority.  It has so far NOT been Trump's lackey, ruling against him on several issues, but I understand the concern.

It has definitely slanted towards Trump. The scheduling of the immunity case and the handling of the questions presented, are hard to explain absent a motive to deliberately delay the criminal case. It's true that as to substance, the Court will not rule whatever Trump says because they are aware of the implications that such a precedent will set for other Presidents. But there are many things they can do and have done to help Trump short of that.

Come on Minskey.  I said the court wasn't Trump's lackey - not that it wasn't slanted to Trump.  To Trump's obvious dismay the court won't just do whatever he wants - but it is more friendly to him,

People still bring up 2000 Bush v Gore, where it was a literal razor's edge election, and by all accounts the USSC got it right.

Right in what sense?  The opinion didn't make a lot of sense in terms of reasoning or precedent, and even the majority was sufficiently embarrassed to take the extraordinary step of declaring it to be non-precedential.  The Court got it "right" in that the after of fact recounts didn't support Gore and it's true there wasn't any plausible scenario where Gore would have won the election regardless of how the Court ruled.  But it was far from a shining moment of glory for the Court.

It was "right" first of all in that all subsequent recounts all gave the win to Bush.

But second of all - it's been 23 1/2 years but as I recall all the procedures within Florida had called the state for Bush.  The procedures had been followed, and while the result was incredibly close there was no credible accusations of impropriety.

What I most recall though - was Bush was very aware that he was not the winner of the majority vote, and at first attempted to preside as a minority president and knew he lacked that popular legitimacy.  Of course 9/11 threw a huge wrench into things.

Trump didn't care less he was elected by a minority vote.