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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: Jacob on September 24, 2012, 05:27:47 PM

Title: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 24, 2012, 05:27:47 PM
I'm starting a thread to post assorted China bits in for those who may be interested.

The current topic is obviously the Diaoyu - Senkaku conflict.

Some observers suggest that the nationalist demonstrations are deliberately over-reported:

QuoteIt is significant that the numbers of protesters, by Chinese standards, are small. Crowds are in the hundreds, rarely over a thousand. By contrast the crowd at the pro-democracy demonstrations at Tiananmen in 1989 reached a million at its peak. There is no doubt which cause had the deeper appeal. Today, too, measured in numbers, the complaints of Chinese protesters are overwhelmingly not about uninhabited islands but about things closer to home—corruption, pollution, land annexation, special privilege, and abuse of power—and the usual adversaries today are not Japan but Chinese officials and the wealthy people associated with them. The Chinese police handle, on average, two hundred or more "mass incidents"—meaning demonstrations, riots, road-blockages, and the like—every day. This kind of protest is perennial but not well reported. The anti-Japan protests are highly unusual but assiduously reported.

More here:

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/sep/20/beijings-dangerous-game/ (http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/sep/20/beijings-dangerous-game/)
http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/09/the-dangerous-game-of-protesting-in-china/ (http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/09/the-dangerous-game-of-protesting-in-china/)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 24, 2012, 05:29:42 PM
Meanwhile, a current rumour is that the Maoist tenor of some of the nationalist demonstrations is an attempt by pro-Bo Xilai left-wingers to apply pressure to save or reinstate him.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fspace.wenxuecity.com%2F_gallery%2F201209%2Fnews%2Fd4bed9d5b8df11c34e951e.jpg&hash=4fe6030e64d675d8f6e50748e0cc910c02802551)

Source (in Chinese): http://space.wenxuecity.com/_gallery/201209/news/d4bed9d5b8df11c34e951e.jpg
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on September 24, 2012, 05:32:08 PM
Yes and it's telling that a serious dispute at the Foxconn factory, reported only as a brawl, actually involved several thousand workers, protesting at the company's security guards beating fellow workers. 

Labour disputes, working conditions, rights to worker association, seem far more important and on the minds of many Chinese rather than these nationalistic driven tensions.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 24, 2012, 05:35:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 24, 2012, 05:32:08 PMLabour disputes, working conditions, rights to worker association, seem far more important and on the minds of many Chinese rather than these nationalistic driven tensions.

Yes.

There are demonstrations and disturbances larger than these nationalist ones pretty much every day that are not reported.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on September 24, 2012, 05:43:41 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 24, 2012, 05:35:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 24, 2012, 05:32:08 PMLabour disputes, working conditions, rights to worker association, seem far more important and on the minds of many Chinese rather than these nationalistic driven tensions.

Yes.

There are demonstrations and disturbances larger than these nationalist ones pretty much every day that are not reported.

Indeed, I wish I understood more about China, as in some ways it's the biggest story going on in the world, whether it be urbanization, construction, the rise of new mega-corporations.
My old history teacher as something of a sinologist, he wrote a school textbook on the subject, I imagine he'd be fascinated by it all.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 24, 2012, 05:46:46 PM
What Chinese People Own - a photo project: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19648095
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 24, 2012, 05:56:26 PM
Adopting a traditional Marxist analysis and looking at the material underpinnings:

It's no secret that China's GDP growth has slowed significantly, and there are serious questions about the ability of the government to push growth back up using traditional measures - i.e. increasing investment rates by having local and provincial governments and their parastatal arms dump money on infrastructure and development projects.  China is also well underway with a demographic transition and that is already manifesting itself in significant labor cost increases.  One keeps seeing reports about pessism among business insiders and objectively that is borne out by the continuing poor performance of the Shanghai exchange which is still way off its 2008 peaks and in fact continues to drift downwards.

The Party's legitimacy is almost entirely based at this point on its ability to deliver material prosperity and thus doubts about the sustainability of economic growth are a direct threat to its power.  It's only other claim to legitimacy is its historical role in unifying the country and its current role as a defender of national interest.  Hypothetically, a Left "opposition" faction thus would logically seek to exploit a tempest in a teapot like Diayou to mobilize support and push the Party into a more hardline position, and that indeed seems to happening.  But I use the scare quotes and the hypothetical formulation because Maoist iconography notwithstanding, its not clear that the factions within the Party have any clear programmatic agenda other than promoting their own careers and the interests of their proteges and clients.  Looks to me like there is a thin but powerful elite contending among each other for the spoils of power and that contest has spilled over into the public arena, with consequences that may be entirely unpredictable to the participants.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 24, 2012, 06:00:55 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 24, 2012, 05:43:41 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 24, 2012, 05:35:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 24, 2012, 05:32:08 PMLabour disputes, working conditions, rights to worker association, seem far more important and on the minds of many Chinese rather than these nationalistic driven tensions.

Yes.

There are demonstrations and disturbances larger than these nationalist ones pretty much every day that are not reported.

Indeed, I wish I understood more about China, as in some ways it's the biggest story going on in the world, whether it be urbanization, construction, the rise of new mega-corporations.
My old history teacher as something of a sinologist, he wrote a school textbook on the subject, I imagine he'd be fascinated by it all.

Caixin - China Economics & Finance publishes every month in English.  Costs $1.25 per month to receive via Kindle; there are print options as well (but more expensive).  Recommended.

See website here to get an idea: http://english.caixin.com/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 24, 2012, 06:03:42 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 24, 2012, 05:56:26 PM

The Party's legitimacy is almost entirely based at this point on its ability to deliver material prosperity and thus doubts about the sustainability of economic growth are a direct threat to its power.  It's only other claim to legitimacy is its historical role in unifying the country and its current role as a defender of national interest.  Hypothetically, a Left "opposition" faction thus would logically seek to exploit a tempest in a teapot like Diayou to mobilize support and push the Party into a more hardline position, and that indeed seems to happening. 
I may be misunderstanding your terminology, but manipulating nationalist claims in order to gain influence seems a historically right wing phenomena. Wouldn't a left opposition faction tap into the labor discontent?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 24, 2012, 06:24:22 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on September 24, 2012, 06:03:42 PMI may be misunderstanding your terminology, but manipulating nationalist claims in order to gain influence seems a historically right wing phenomena. Wouldn't a left opposition faction tap into the labor discontent?

Hard left in this context means Maoist and old-school Communist, if not in actual policies then at least in aesthetics and populist language.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on September 24, 2012, 06:56:31 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 24, 2012, 06:00:55 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 24, 2012, 05:43:41 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 24, 2012, 05:35:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 24, 2012, 05:32:08 PMLabour disputes, working conditions, rights to worker association, seem far more important and on the minds of many Chinese rather than these nationalistic driven tensions.

Yes.

There are demonstrations and disturbances larger than these nationalist ones pretty much every day that are not reported.

Indeed, I wish I understood more about China, as in some ways it's the biggest story going on in the world, whether it be urbanization, construction, the rise of new mega-corporations.
My old history teacher as something of a sinologist, he wrote a school textbook on the subject, I imagine he'd be fascinated by it all.

Caixin - China Economics & Finance publishes every month in English.  Costs $1.25 per month to receive via Kindle; there are print options as well (but more expensive).  Recommended.

See website here to get an idea: http://english.caixin.com/

:cheers:

Thanks for the link.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 24, 2012, 06:58:33 PM
In addition to Jacob's point, there's a huge history of often populist, posing left-wing nationalism. Subjects like labour disputes are more troublesome because they operate out of authorised and controlled channels. Labour disputes and the like have a history of leading to independent demands and organisations which are a challenge to an elite struggling for power in a corporatist state.

As Jacob said such politics is as often aesthetic as anything else.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on September 25, 2012, 06:07:31 AM
If I were one of the laobaixing, I would be deeply dissatisfied with the status quo.  China's property depends on no small measure on a massive quasi-slave underclass, working at wages barely above subsistence level, whilst signs of prosperity and even opulence abound everywhere...but the creature comforts of even a moderately comfortable life are utterly out of reach.

Unfortunately, there are few healthy mechanisms to channel those grievances into moderate, gradual reforms.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on September 25, 2012, 06:30:49 AM
I don't know. I hear there's an increasingly large amount of power going to the commoners. These days they can pick and choose which job to take and factories have to be really competitive on offering ever better wages to try and attract workers.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Martim Silva on September 25, 2012, 10:34:49 AM
In the meanwhile, Taiwan has decided to jump into the fray:

http://news.yahoo.com/japan-trades-words-china-water-taiwan-133522693--finance.html;_ylt=A2KLOzErzWFQtCAAZaDQtDMD

Japanese and Taiwanese ships shot water cannon at each other Tuesday in the latest confrontation over tiny islands in the East China Sea, as Japan met with another rival, China, in an effort to tamp down tensions.

About 40 Taiwanese fishing boats and 12 patrol boats entered waters near the islands on Tuesday morning, briefly triggering an exchange of water cannon fire with Japanese coast guard ships. Coast guard officials said the Taiwanese vessels had ignored warnings to get out of their territory, and the Taiwanese ships pulled back after being fired upon. (...)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 25, 2012, 10:43:16 AM
Quote from: Martim Silva on September 25, 2012, 10:34:49 AM
Japanese and Taiwanese ships shot water cannon at each other Tuesday

Gay sailor wet t-shirt contests.  Super.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Kleves on September 25, 2012, 02:54:08 PM
China has launched its first aricraft carrier:  :o. Fortunately, it appears to be useless.
QuoteBEIJING — In a ceremony attended by the country's top leaders, China put its first aircraft carrier into service on Tuesday, a move intended to signal its growing military might as tensions escalate between Beijing and its neighbors over islands in nearby seas.

Officials said the carrier, a discarded vessel bought from Ukraine in 1998 and refurbished by China, would protect national sovereignty, an issue that has become a touchstone of the government's dispute with Japan over ownership of islands in the East China Sea.

But despite the triumphant tone of the launch, which was watched by President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, and despite rousing assessments by Chinese military experts about the importance of the carrier, the vessel will be used only for training and testing for the foreseeable future.

The mark "16" emblazoned on the carrier's side indicates that it is limited to training, Chinese and other military experts said. China does not have planes capable of landing on the carrier and so far training for such landings has been carried out on land, they said.

Even so, the public appearance of the carrier at the northeastern port of Dalian was used as an occasion to stir patriotic feelings, which have run at fever pitch in the last 10 days over the dispute between China and Japan over the East China Sea islands, called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China.

The carrier will "raise the overall operational strength of the Chinese Navy" and help China "to effectively protect national sovereignty, security and development interests," the Ministry of Defense said.

The Communist Party congress that will begin the country's once-in-a-decade leadership transition is expected to be held next month, and the public unveiling of the carrier appeared to be part of an effort to forge national unity ahead of the event.

For international purposes, the public unveiling of the carrier seemed intended to signal to smaller nations in the South China Sea, including the Philippines, an American ally, that China has an increasing number of impressive assets to deploy.

American military planners have played down the significance of the commissioning of the carrier. Some Navy officials have even said they would encourage China to move ahead with building its own aircraft carrier and the ships to accompany it, because it would be a waste of money.

Other military experts outside China have agreed with that assessment.

"The fact is the aircraft carrier is useless for the Chinese Navy," You Ji, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore, said in an interview. "If it is used against America, it has no survivability. If it is used against China's neighbors, it's a sign of bullying."

Vietnam, a neighbor with whom China has fought wars, operates land-based Russian Su-30 aircraft that could pose a threat to the aircraft carrier, Mr. You said. "In the South China Sea, if the carrier is damaged by the Vietnamese, it's a huge loss of face," he said. "It's not worth it."

Up to now, Chinese pilots have been limited to practicing simulated carrier landings on concrete strips on land in Chinese J-8 aircraft based on Soviet-made MiG-23s produced about 25 years ago, Mr. You said. The pilots could not undertake the difficult maneuver of landing on a moving carrier because China does not yet have suitable aircraft, Mr. You said.

The question of whether China will move ahead and build its own carrier depends in large part, he said, on whether China can develop aircraft to land on one. "It's a long, long process for constructing such aircraft," he said.

In contrast to some of the skepticism expressed by military experts outside China, Li Jie, a researcher at the Chinese Naval Research Institute, said in an interview in the state-run People's Daily that the carrier would change the Chinese Navy's traditional mind-set and bring qualitative changes to its operational style and structure, he said.

Although the Chinese military does not publish a breakdown of its military spending, foreign military experts say the navy is less well financed than the army and air force.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on September 25, 2012, 03:03:10 PM
Quote from: Martim Silva on September 25, 2012, 10:34:49 AM
In the meanwhile, Taiwan has decided to jump into the fray:

http://news.yahoo.com/japan-trades-words-china-water-taiwan-133522693--finance.html;_ylt=A2KLOzErzWFQtCAAZaDQtDMD

Japanese and Taiwanese ships shot water cannon at each other Tuesday in the latest confrontation over tiny islands in the East China Sea, as Japan met with another rival, China, in an effort to tamp down tensions.

About 40 Taiwanese fishing boats and 12 patrol boats entered waters near the islands on Tuesday morning, briefly triggering an exchange of water cannon fire with Japanese coast guard ships. Coast guard officials said the Taiwanese vessels had ignored warnings to get out of their territory, and the Taiwanese ships pulled back after being fired upon. (...)


That seems to be an ineffective means of combat.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 25, 2012, 03:20:05 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2012, 03:03:10 PMThat seems to be an ineffective means of combat.

I dunno, seems pretty effective to me. Both parties get to mark their claim to the territories while minimizing the risk of accidentally killing nationals from the other side and seriously harming their relationship.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on September 25, 2012, 03:41:35 PM
They already marked their claim.  You can do that with just pen and a map.  Shooting at each other with water hoses means they'll be back next week doing the same thing, week after week.  Until someone shows up with a real cannon.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 25, 2012, 04:14:27 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2012, 03:41:35 PM
They already marked their claim.  You can do that with just pen and a map.  Shooting at each other with water hoses means they'll be back next week doing the same thing, week after week.  Until someone shows up with a real cannon.

That's not how it works Raz, a pen and a map is not enough.

You have to physically patrol the territory to maintain the claim.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 25, 2012, 04:28:57 PM
Quote from: Kleves on September 25, 2012, 02:54:08 PM
China has launched its first aricraft carrier:  :o. Fortunately, it appears to be useless.

So they're 70 years behind the US and Japan? :yeah:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on September 25, 2012, 04:40:37 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 25, 2012, 04:14:27 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2012, 03:41:35 PM
They already marked their claim.  You can do that with just pen and a map.  Shooting at each other with water hoses means they'll be back next week doing the same thing, week after week.  Until someone shows up with a real cannon.

That's not how it works Raz, a pen and a map is not enough.

You have to physically patrol the territory to maintain the claim.

With big squirt guns?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on September 25, 2012, 06:45:52 PM
A look at part of China's material culture:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19648095 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19648095)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on September 25, 2012, 06:53:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 25, 2012, 06:45:52 PM
A look at part of China's material culture:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19648095 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19648095)

Weak. My stash is larger. My tp supply is worth double of their inferior electronics.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 25, 2012, 06:53:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 25, 2012, 06:45:52 PM
A look at part of China's material culture:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19648095 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19648095)

:lol:

:huh: ... you do know that I posted that already, right?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on September 25, 2012, 06:55:49 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 25, 2012, 06:53:37 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 25, 2012, 06:45:52 PM
A look at part of China's material culture:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19648095 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19648095)

:lol:

:huh: ... you do know that I posted that already, right?

:blush:

Info overload, I click on so many links a day, I forget I've already seen it. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: BVN on September 26, 2012, 02:26:46 AM
The title of the article says it all...  :x

http://www.infowars.com/man-crushed-by-road-flattening-truck-on-orders-of-chinese-officials/ (http://www.infowars.com/man-crushed-by-road-flattening-truck-on-orders-of-chinese-officials/)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 26, 2012, 02:45:54 PM
Here's your chance for US$65million: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19733003
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/the-hot-button/tycoon-offers-63-million-to-any-man-who-marries-lesbian-daughter/article4569747/?service=mobile

All you have to do is woo the woman in this picture and marry her:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbeta.images.theglobeandmail.com%2F633%2Flife%2Fthe-hot-button%2Farticle4569746.ece%2FALTERNATES%2Fw620%2Fchao.jpeg&hash=91bcdd1be74cd4b611c6698b954c68dd62a555fa)

If you do, the man in the picture - her father - will pay you the bounty.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 26, 2012, 03:06:22 PM
Malthus told me that one was the daughter's wife. I should have known better than to trust a lawyer.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Malthus on September 26, 2012, 03:08:54 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on September 26, 2012, 03:06:22 PM
Malthus told me that one was the wife. I should have known better than to trust a lawyer.

Hey, I was mislead by inept photo labelling.  :(

Evidently the challenge is this: to convince her you are a woman, while convincing him you are a man.

Sounds like the premise of a short-lived sitcom.  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on September 26, 2012, 04:16:50 PM
Quote from: Martim Silva on September 25, 2012, 10:34:49 AM
In the meanwhile, Taiwan has decided to jump into the fray:

http://news.yahoo.com/japan-trades-words-china-water-taiwan-133522693--finance.html;_ylt=A2KLOzErzWFQtCAAZaDQtDMD

Japanese and Taiwanese ships shot water cannon at each other Tuesday in the latest confrontation over tiny islands in the East China Sea, as Japan met with another rival, China, in an effort to tamp down tensions.

About 40 Taiwanese fishing boats and 12 patrol boats entered waters near the islands on Tuesday morning, briefly triggering an exchange of water cannon fire with Japanese coast guard ships. Coast guard officials said the Taiwanese vessels had ignored warnings to get out of their territory, and the Taiwanese ships pulled back after being fired upon. (...)


Taiwan has always been a claimant.  In fact, both Taiwan and Mainland China agree that the islands belong to Taiwan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on September 27, 2012, 05:10:08 AM
Quote from: BVN on September 26, 2012, 02:26:46 AM
The title of the article says it all...  :x

http://www.infowars.com/man-crushed-by-road-flattening-truck-on-orders-of-chinese-officials/ (http://www.infowars.com/man-crushed-by-road-flattening-truck-on-orders-of-chinese-officials/)

If this is a valid story, that guy earnes the posthumous Arthur P. Dent Memorial Plaque.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 28, 2012, 11:15:14 AM
Bo Xilai to face criminal charges: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19755035

This puts a pretty serious obstacle in the path of any comeback.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on September 28, 2012, 05:48:13 PM
He definitely crossed the wrong commissar.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 28, 2012, 06:35:51 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 28, 2012, 11:15:14 AM
Bo Xilai to face criminal charges: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19755035

This puts a pretty serious obstacle in the path of any comeback.

What's worse: criminal charges, or purged from the Party?  Both are practically a death sentence.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on September 28, 2012, 07:04:05 PM
True, but it's hard to feel sorry for some communist asshole.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 28, 2012, 07:18:52 PM
QuoteUS blocks Chinese firm's investment in wind farms
California wind farm, file picture A foreign business deal has not been blocked in the US since 1990

President Barack Obama has stopped a Chinese company from building wind turbines in the US state of Oregon, citing national security concerns, his administration said.

Ralls Corp, a private Chinese firm, had acquired four wind farm projects near a US naval facility earlier this year.

This is the first foreign investment to be blocked in the US for 22 years.

It comes as the US lodged a trade dispute against China just weeks ahead of November's presidential election.

The move forces Ralls Corp to divest its stake in the projects, which were located near restricted airspace used by the military base.

The president's order came after an investigation into the wind farms by the US Committee on Foreign Investments (CFIUS) said there was no way to mitigate the national security risks posed by the Chinese company's plans.

The White House order said: "There is credible evidence that leads me to believe that Ralls Corporation... might take action that threatens to impair the national security of the United States."

The order also targeted Sany Group, the company that makes the turbine generators.

The military has said it uses the Oregon base to test unmanned drones and other equipment for electronic warfare. The aircraft fly as low as 200ft (60m) at speeds of as much as 300mph (500km/h).

Correspondents say the development could disgruntle China, whose trade advantage over the US has become a focus of Mr Obama's battle for re-election against Republican contender Mitt Romney.

Mr Romney has repeatedly accused the president of being too lenient with what he has called China's unfair trade practices.

Earlier this week, the Romney campaign released a video claiming that China is stealing American ideas and jobs, and accusing Mr Obama of doing little to stop it.

Mr Romney has said that on his first day in office he would use an executive order to label Beijing a currency manipulator.

The Obama campaign has in turn claimed that Mr Romney outsourced jobs to China during his time as a private equity chief.

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, Mr Obama has highlighted his record with China, reminding voters that he filed more trade cases against Beijing in one administration than his predecessor, George W Bush, did in two terms.

This month, the Obama administration filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization against Chinese subsidies for its car industry.

The Obama campaign has also criticised Mr Romney for investing in Chinese firms.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on September 28, 2012, 07:35:57 PM
QuoteCorrespondents say the development could disgruntle China,

They'll get over it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 28, 2012, 07:44:13 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 28, 2012, 06:35:51 PMWhat's worse: criminal charges, or purged from the Party?  Both are practically a death sentence.

As I understand it, the purge from the party is a prerequisite for the criminal charges.

So the purge is probably worse, because if he wasn't purged he wouldn't face the charges.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on September 28, 2012, 08:11:32 PM
Who cares if China owns stake in wind farms?  What's the point of shutting down the deal?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 28, 2012, 08:15:04 PM
Quote from: Neil on September 28, 2012, 08:11:32 PM
Who cares if China owns stake in wind farms?  What's the point of shutting down the deal?

No Chinks or anybody else foreign allowed anywhere near a US naval facility.

Keeping them as far away from possible from the power grid is just a bonus.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on September 28, 2012, 08:23:52 PM
They already have all your military secrets, courtesy of traitorous Israel.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 28, 2012, 08:26:58 PM
Quote from: Neil on September 28, 2012, 08:23:52 PM
They already have all your military secrets, courtesy of traitorous Israel.

Let's just pretend there's some they don't have, mmmkay?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 28, 2012, 08:29:09 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 28, 2012, 07:35:57 PM
QuoteCorrespondents say the development could disgruntle China,

They'll get over it.

Hopefully some smooth-talking diplomat will gruntle them right back.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on September 28, 2012, 08:29:22 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 28, 2012, 08:26:58 PM
Quote from: Neil on September 28, 2012, 08:23:52 PM
They already have all your military secrets, courtesy of traitorous Israel.

Let's just pretend there's some they don't have, mmmkay?
And that's why Israel is running Operation Siegebreaker.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on September 28, 2012, 08:45:12 PM
Siege can't be a spy, he'd be passing out state secrets after two beers.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on September 29, 2012, 07:02:42 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on September 28, 2012, 08:45:12 PM
Siege can't be a spy, he'd be passing out state secrets after two beers.

Difficult to do that after passing out yourself first.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on September 30, 2012, 01:27:11 PM
What I don't understand is what is the Israel end game of selling secrets to China. What's the advantage?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on September 30, 2012, 01:47:26 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on September 30, 2012, 01:27:11 PM
What I don't understand is what is the Israel end game of selling secrets to China. What's the advantage?

:blink: Jews. Money. Ring a bell?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 01, 2012, 09:42:41 AM
The company (Ralls) responded by filing a law suit against Obama, which if nothing else demonstrates that they are doing everything they can to make themselves seem like regular Americans.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on October 01, 2012, 09:46:16 AM
Quote from: The Brain on September 29, 2012, 07:02:42 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on September 28, 2012, 08:45:12 PM
Siege can't be a spy, he'd be passing out state secrets after two beers.

Difficult to do that after passing out yourself first.
:XD:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 01, 2012, 10:42:37 PM
Imagine that.

QuoteEnergy-Grid Company Hit by Apparent Chinese Hackers
26 September 2012 | 01:34 PM ET | by Ben Weitzenkorn, SecurityNewsDaily Staff Writer

A company that provides industrial automation technology to agencies overseeing the energy industry said its systems have been the target of an elaborate cyberattack, affecting its operations in North America and Spain.

Experts have linked clues left by the hackers to a Chinese group with a history of spying on and hacking into important Western infrastructure systems and databases.

Telvent Canada sent letters to its customers to inform them that hackers had installed malware and taken proprietary files related to key supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems used in "smart grid" technology, security journalist Brian Krebs reported.

"We do not have any reason to believe that the intruder(s) acquired any information that would enable them to gain access to a customer system or that any of the compromised computers have been connected to a customer system," the letter said.

The company added that, as a safety measure, it had "indefinitely terminated any customer system access by Telvent."

[Chinese Military Admits Cyberwarfare Unit Exists]

SCADA systems are large-scale industrial control systems that let human operators control entire physical systems, often spread across several sites, from a single control room. Early multi-site SCADA systems used closed networks to reach remote sites, but it's become more convenient and more cost-effective to simply hook them up to the Internet.

However, Internet connections to SCADA systems build in new vulnerabilities, which can become matters of national security if those systems are power plants, water-treatment facilities, traffic lights or other pieces of "critical infrastructure."

As Krebs points out, this incident is just the latest in a long list of examples of what can happen "when corporate computer systems at critical networks are connected to sensitive control systems that were never designed with security in mind."

A Senate bill forcing critical-infrastructure operators to beef up their SCADA security was defeated by Republicans earlier this year. President Barack Obama is said to be considering an executive order that would achieve the same goal without Congressional input.

Even SCADA systems isolated from the Internet can be attacked, as Iran found out in 2010 when the American-Israeli Stuxnet sabotage worm snuck into the Natanz uranium-processing facility aboard a USB stick and set back Iran's nuclear program by several months.

After looking over reports of the ongoing attack against Telvent, Dell SecureWorks malware researcher Joe Stewart told Krebs that a band of Chinese hackers called the Comment Group seem to be behind the attack. Based on the Comment Group's abilities and preferred targets, many security experts believe the group is backed by the Chinese government.

The Comment Group uses highly sophisticated methods to break into the computer networks of high-profile organizations with data and secrets that "could give China an edge as it strives to become the world's largest economy," a July 2012 Bloomberg article asserted.

Among the targets mentioned in the Bloomberg piece was a law firm going after Chinese exporters and an energy company with plans to drill in disputed waters that China lays claim to.

STOP APOLOGIZING FOR CANADA DAMMIT

QuoteCanada won't say if China involved in hacking incident

(Reuters) - Canada said it was aware hackers had breached security at a domestic manufacturer of software used by big energy companies, but declined to comment on a report that a Chinese group could be responsible.

Calgary-based Telvent Canada Ltd, which is owned by France's Schneider Electric SA, warned customers about the attack, which hit operations in the United States, Canada and Spain, the cyber security news site KrebsOnSecurity.com reported on Wednesday.

"The Canadian Cyber Incident Response Centre is aware of this incident and is already working with stakeholders in government and the private sector," public safety ministry spokesman Jean-Paul Duval said in an email late on Thursday.

KrebsOnSecurity.com cited experts who said digital fingerprints left during the attack pointed to Chinese hackers.

If a Chinese group were involved it could complicate matters for Canada's Conservative government, which is deciding whether to approve a landmark $15.1 billion bid by China's CNOOC Ltd to take over Canadian oil producer Nexen Inc.

Some legislators are wary of the proposed takeover, in part because of what they say are China's unfair business practices.


Duval, citing operational reasons, declined to comment when asked whether Canada thought Chinese hackers were responsible.

Nexen is based in the oil-rich province of Alberta, the political stronghold of the governing Conservatives.

Candice Bergen, an aide to Public Safety Minister Vic Toews, did not directly address the incident when asked about it in Parliament on Friday. She said Ottawa had recently spent C$90 million ($92 million) on measures to combat electronic threats.

The opposition New Democratic Party said the Conservatives needed to pay more attention to security concerns when looking at foreign takeover bids.

"Cyber security is something we have to pay attention to and that ... includes how deals are set up and trade deals are set up and acquisitions are made," said legislator Paul Dewar, the party's foreign affairs spokesman.

Although Industry Minister Christian Paradis is responsible for deciding whether the CNOOC bid should be approved, independent Conservative legislator Peter Goldring says a parliamentary committee ought to examine it.

"One of the main priorities of this committee will be to determine whether a foreign state-owned enterprise is an acceptable bidder ... for taking over a Canadian corporation," he said in a statement.

If a committee were set up it could delay the government's timetable for a ruling on the CNOOC deal. Paradis is expected to announce that decision by Nov 12.


China is often cited as a suspect in various hacking attacks on companies in the United States and other nations. Beijing dismisses allegations it is involved.

An organization that regulates U.S. electric utilities is looking into the breach at Telvent Canada Ltd, which makes software that energy companies use to manage production and distribution of electricity. Telvent acknowledged a breach had taken place but gave few details.

The government's Canadian Security Intelligence Service says hackers try to break into government networks every day.

"Another traditional economic espionage target we often come across is the oil and gas industry ... Canada remains an attractive target for economic espionage," the spy agency said in its annual report released last week.

CSIS did not identify nations it said were responsible for the attacks. In 2010, the head of CSIS said ministers in two of Canada's 10 provinces were under "the general influence of a foreign government" and made clear he was talking about China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: FunkMonk on October 01, 2012, 10:44:00 PM
President Romney would have never left that happen seedy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 02, 2012, 09:36:43 AM
QuoteSix crew arrested after Hong Kong ferry collision kills 37

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong police arrested six crew on Tuesday after a ferry and a company boat carrying more than 120 staff and family celebrating the mid-autumn festival collided, killing 37 people as the boat sank.

The boat, belonging to Hongkong Electric Co, controlled by billionaire Li Ka-shing, was taking passengers to watch fireworks in the city's Victoria Harbor on Monday when the two vessels collided near the picturesque outlying island of Lamma.

Five children were among the dead. More than 100 people were taken to hospital, with nine suffering serious injuries or in critical condition, the government said in a statement.

"We suspect that somebody did not fulfill their responsibility, that's why we made the arrests," Police Commissioner Andy Tsang said. "We do not rule out the possibility that further arrests will be made."

The arrests involved crew of both vessels.

The collision sparked a major rescue involving dive teams, helicopters and boats that saw scores plucked from the sea. A large crane on a barge was connected to the stricken boat.

"Within 10 minutes, the ship had sunk. We had to wait at least 20 minutes before we were rescued," said one male survivor, wrapped in a blanket.

Survivors said people had to break windows to swim to the surface. "We thought we were going to die. Everyone was trapped inside," said a middle-aged woman.

The fireworks marked the mid-autumn festival, when the moon is full, and China's National Day. Hong Kong returned to Chinese from British rule in 1997.

Hongkong Electric, a unit of Power Assets Holdings which is controlled by Asia's richest man Li, said the boat had capacity to hold up to 200 people.

The tragedy was the worst to hit Hong Kong since 1996 when more than 40 people died in a fire in a commercial building.

"OUR CAPTAIN IS NOT WELL"


The ferry, owned by Hong Kong and Kowloon Ferry Holdings, suffered a badly damaged bow in the collision but made it safely to the pier on Lamma, an island popular with tourists and expatriates about a half-hour away from downtown Hong Kong.

Several of its roughly 100 passengers and crew were injured.

"After the accident, it was all chaos and people were crying. Then water began seeping in and the vessel began to tilt to one side and people were all told to stand on the other side and everyone started putting on life jackets," a passenger said.

Hong Kong is home to one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, but serious accidents are rare. The city is known for its high-quality public services and advanced infrastructure.

A spokeswoman for Hong Kong and Kowloon Ferry said the company was trying to assess what happened.

"Our captain is not well and we have not been able to talk to him so far," the spokeswoman told local television.

A Hong Kong Fire Services official said the search was hampered by the vessel being partly sunken, poor visibility and too much clutter. The search for survivors was continuing on Tuesday.

Teams of men in white coats, green rubber gloves and yellow helmets carried corpses off a police launch in body bags.

At one of the city's public mortuaries, around 50 grieving relatives gathered, some crying, while others were called in to identify the dead.

Hong Kong leader Leung Chun-ying visited survivors and pledged a thorough investigation. He declared three days of mourning starting on Thursday.

Thousands of Hong Kong residents live on outlying islands such as Lamma, which lies about three km (two miles) southwest of Hong Kong Island.

Neato animation of the accident, complete with thought bubbles.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/sharednews-hong-kong-ferry-accident-20121002,0,5196869.premiumvideo
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 02, 2012, 11:12:21 AM
Not well = passed out drunk
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 08, 2012, 12:43:44 AM
Excellent piece on those sneaky rat bastards Huawei on 60 Minutes tonight:

Quote(CBS News) U.S. companies have largely left the telecommunications business to foreigners, but can we trust the Chinese to build and maintain the critical data infrastructure that government and industry rely on without spying on us? Steve Kroft investigates.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57527441/huawei-probed-for-security-espionage-risk/?tag=contentMain;cbsCarousel

IF YOU LOVE AMERICA YOU WILL WATCH IT
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Kleves on October 08, 2012, 09:59:43 AM
Quotecan we trust the Chinese to build and maintain the critical data infrastructure that government and industry rely on without spying on us?
Survey says: No.
QuoteWASHINGTON — The federal government should "view with suspicion" attempts by two Chinese telecommunications companies to expand in the U.S. market because of a strong risk that they would aid spying and cybertheft by China, a yearlong investigation by the House intelligence committee concluded.

House investigators working for Democrats and Republicans said in a report that Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp., two private companies with deep ties to the Chinese government, had not satisfied security concerns.

"Despite hours of interviews, extensive and repeated document requests, a review of open-source information, and an open hearing with witnesses from both companies, the committee remains unsatisfied with the level of cooperation and candor provided by each company," the report says. "Neither company was willing to provide sufficient evidence to ameliorate the committee's concerns."

The report recommended that the U.S. government block the companies from access to any sensitive U.S. networks, and from acquiring U.S. assets. The companies make routers, switches and other parts used in telecommunications systems.

Huawei has hired lobbyists in Washington, including several former congressional aides, as it seeks to sell products to U.S. telecoms and otherwise gain a toehold in the American market. ZTE officials have also said they want to do significant business in the United States. But large U.S. telecoms are not likely to engage the Chinese firms if U.S. officials warn against it.

Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., the intelligence committee chairman, and Rep C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger, D-Md., the panel's ranking minority member, appeared on CBS's "60 Minutes" Sunday to discuss their inquiry.

"If I were an American company today, and you are looking at Huawei, I would find another vendor if you care about your intellectual property, if you care about your consumers' privacy and you care about the national security of the United States of America," Rogers said.

With $32 billion in annual revenue, Huawei is the world's largest telecommunications-equipment maker, while ZTE has $13.7 billion in revenue and is the fifth-largest. The firms specialize in technology that can be easily manipulated for electronic eavesdropping in ways that are extremely difficult to detect, the report says.

Huawei "exhibits a pattern of disregard for the intellectual property rights" of other companies, the report says, urging private companies "to consider the long-term security risks associated with doing business with either ZTE or Huawei for equipment or services."

The report was tougher on Huawei than on ZTE. It charges that "during the investigation, the committee received information from industry experts and current and former Huawei employees suggesting that Huawei, in particular, may be violating United States laws. These allegations describe a company that has not followed United States legal obligations or international standards of business behavior."

The allegations, including bribery and corruption, will be referred to the Justice Department, the report says.

Aside from those unspecified allegations, however, the unclassified version of the report does not specifically link either company to wrongdoing or spying for China. U.S. intelligence officials say China has mounted a brazen state-sponsored campaign to steal the intellectual property of American and other Western companies, often through cyberattacks that siphon information out of poorly defended computer networks.

Although the U.S. engages in extensive electronic spying, it does not undertake economic espionage, U.S. officials insist. At the same time, they contend, China has a strategy of bypassing research and development by stealing it. China denies this.

The report focuses mainly on questions neither company answered to the committee's satisfaction about ties to China, its government, and its defense and intelligence services.

Although Huawei is a private company, it receives significant support from state-owned Chinese banks that it refuses to detail, the report says. ZTE would not discuss its work for Chinese military and intelligence services, the report says.

At a September hearing of the intelligence committee, both companies denied that they would do anything improper on behalf of China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 08, 2012, 10:08:58 AM
What I found interesting--and not surprising at all--from the CBS piece was how the future of our entire telecommunications backbone--like so much other critical infrastructure--rests entirely on foreign companies.

QuoteSteve Kroft: Were there any American companies that bid on this?

Craig Mock: I don't know of any American companies that makes this equipment.

About the only real U.S. competitor Huawei has left is Cisco, which is still a worldwide player, but doesn't produce all the equipment necessary to construct a 4G network. The only companies that do are all foreign: Huawei, Ericsson, which is Swedish, and the French company Alcatel-Lucent.

Jim Lewis: That's where we've ended up. We now depend entirely on foreign suppliers. Three European, two Chinese. No Americans.

Steve Kroft: The United States used to dominate this field.

Jim Lewis: Yeah it's true. You know, I guess we just were asleep at the switch.

Steve Kroft: What happened?

Jim Lewis: Some of it was just bad planning at the company level. Some of it was a lack of attention by the government. I mean, we would not have let the space industry go out of business. We would not say, "Oh, we'll depend on foreign companies to launch our satellites." But we didn't do that for telecom.

The answer is even easier:  foreign companies are usually cheaper.  I BLAME UNIONS
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 04:21:58 PM
Interview with Mo Yan, winner of the nobel prize for literature: http://www.neh.gov/humanities/2011/januaryfebruary/conversation/the-real-mo-yan

I liked this exchange:
QuoteLEACH: I'm told you wrote this wonderful book, which is entitled Life and Death Are Wearing Me Out in forty-two days with a brush instead of a computer. Would it have been different if you had written it with a computer?

MO YAN: ... Another reason I wrote is that I heard that people's handwriting, especially that of famous people, could be worth a lot of money in the future. So I'm going to leave this for my daughter. Maybe she can get some money.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on October 11, 2012, 04:34:05 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 04:21:58 PM
Interview with Mo Yan, winner of the nobel prize for literature: http://www.neh.gov/humanities/2011/januaryfebruary/conversation/the-real-mo-yan

I liked this exchange:
QuoteLEACH: I'm told you wrote this wonderful book, which is entitled Life and Death Are Wearing Me Out in forty-two days with a brush instead of a computer. Would it have been different if you had written it with a computer?

MO YAN: ... Another reason I wrote is that I heard that people's handwriting, especially that of famous people, could be worth a lot of money in the future. So I'm going to leave this for my daughter. Maybe she can get some money.

Yeah, it's sort of the Old and the New China.

I think Mono would be particularly impressed by his practicalness.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 04:43:42 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2012, 04:34:05 PMI think Mono would be particularly impressed by his practicalness.

I think a significant number of Chinese would appreciate that comment, not just Mono.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 06:24:26 PM
Also - in Chinese language media right now: Bo Xilai is now officially arrested (as opposed to "not seen in public and excluded from the CCP").

BTW, I came across an interesting fact about Bo - while head of Chongqing, he arrested 17 of the 20 richest people in Chongqing and confiscated more than 200 Billion RMB (US$ 32 Billion) worth of property and cash.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on October 11, 2012, 06:34:32 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 06:24:26 PM
Also - in Chinese language media right now: Bo Xilai is now officially arrested (as opposed to "not seen in public and excluded from the CCP").

BTW, I came across an interesting fact about Bo - while head of Chongqing, he arrested 17 of the 20 richest people in Chongqing and confiscated more than 200 Billion RMB (US$ 32 Billion) worth of property and cash.

That's a very good way to make some serious enemies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on October 11, 2012, 06:34:37 PM
Wow, there are a lot of billionaires in China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on October 11, 2012, 06:41:55 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 11, 2012, 06:34:37 PM
Wow, there are a lot of billionaires in China.

Of course.  It's communist.  Everything is owned collectively.  Everyone is a billionaire.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on October 11, 2012, 09:11:01 PM
Bo Xilai also apparently paid a famous actress $1M US on ten separate occasions for sex.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 09:39:32 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 11, 2012, 09:11:01 PM
Bo Xilai also apparently paid a famous actress $1M US on ten separate occasions for sex.

Got a link?

And is it Zhang Zhiyi? Because that's the rumour I heard, though she denies it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 11, 2012, 09:41:55 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 09:39:32 PM
And is it Zhang Zhiyi? Because that's the rumour I heard, though she denies it.

I don't care what the Party thinks, but Bo's stock just went up in my book.  Woof.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 09:45:48 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 11, 2012, 09:41:55 PMI don't care what the Party thinks, but Bo's stock just went up in my book.  Woof.

If the rumour mill is to be believed, this was not an achievement unique to Bo.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 11, 2012, 09:48:31 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 09:45:48 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 11, 2012, 09:41:55 PMI don't care what the Party thinks, but Bo's stock just went up in my book.  Woof.

If the rumour mill is to be believed, this was not an achievement unique to Bo.

Yet another party I've not been invited to.  :cry:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 11, 2012, 09:55:51 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2012, 04:34:05 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 04:21:58 PM
Interview with Mo Yan, winner of the nobel prize for literature: http://www.neh.gov/humanities/2011/januaryfebruary/conversation/the-real-mo-yan

I liked this exchange:
QuoteLEACH: I'm told you wrote this wonderful book, which is entitled Life and Death Are Wearing Me Out in forty-two days with a brush instead of a computer. Would it have been different if you had written it with a computer?

MO YAN: ... Another reason I wrote is that I heard that people's handwriting, especially that of famous people, could be worth a lot of money in the future. So I'm going to leave this for my daughter. Maybe she can get some money.

Yeah, it's sort of the Old and the New China.

I think Mono would be particularly impressed by his practicalness.

Be easier to type the book and write his daughter a letter.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 10:05:29 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 11, 2012, 09:48:31 PMYet another party I've not been invited to.  :cry:

The Chinese entertainment industry is pretty... practical... in the way you can access cash if you're a starlet. Not quite as bad as the Korean one, as I understand it, but still pretty straightforward.

An acquaintance of mine is a minor pop star in Hong Kong. I was asking him questions about the sex trade and celebrity life in Hong Kong (part of the research for Sleeping Dogs) and as an aside he told me of going to Korea where he had business connections. His friend picked him up in the airport and asked him "who do you want to fuck? Name a girl and I'll arrange it" and he started listing off pop-stars and TV personalities. No words on whether my acquaintance took him up on the offer (though he's now married to a Korean former hip hop singer).

Hong Kong and mainland China may not be so bad as all that... but there Zhang Zhiyi specifically has reputation, especially after a scandal that popped a year or two ago. In Hong Kong, Jackie Chan has reputation as a requirement for any young ambitious actress.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on October 11, 2012, 10:13:58 PM
Forced evictions on the increase in China:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-19894292 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-19894292)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on October 11, 2012, 10:15:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 10:05:29 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 11, 2012, 09:48:31 PMYet another party I've not been invited to.  :cry:

The Chinese entertainment industry is pretty... practical... in the way you can access cash if you're a starlet. Not quite as bad as the Korean one, as I understand it, but still pretty straightforward.

An acquaintance of mine is a minor pop star in Hong Kong. I was asking him questions about the sex trade and celebrity life in Hong Kong (part of the research for Sleeping Dogs) and as an aside he told me of going to Korea where he had business connections. His friend picked him up in the airport and asked him "who do you want to fuck? Name a girl and I'll arrange it" and he started listing off pop-stars and TV personalities. No words on whether my acquaintance took him up on the offer (though he's now married to a Korean former hip hop singer).

Hong Kong and mainland China may not be so bad as all that... but there Zhang Zhiyi specifically has reputation, especially after a scandal that popped a year or two ago. In Hong Kong, Jackie Chan has reputation as a requirement for any young ambitious actress.

Rather sad, sounds rather like aspects of Hollywood in the 30s/40s.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 11, 2012, 10:16:48 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2012, 10:15:01 PM
Rather sad, sounds rather like aspects of Hollywood in the 30s/40s.

I know.  I'm so fucking jealous.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 11, 2012, 10:25:24 PM
Otoh, chan must be a better actor than us westerners realized.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on October 11, 2012, 10:26:24 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 11, 2012, 10:16:48 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2012, 10:15:01 PM
Rather sad, sounds rather like aspects of Hollywood in the 30s/40s.

I know.  I'm so fucking jealous.

:D
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 10:28:12 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 11, 2012, 10:15:01 PMRather sad, sounds rather like aspects of Hollywood in the 30s/40s.

Yeah.

I wonder how much of that is going on today.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on October 11, 2012, 11:32:15 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 09:39:32 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 11, 2012, 09:11:01 PM
Bo Xilai also apparently paid a famous actress $1M US on ten separate occasions for sex.

Got a link?

And is it Zhang Zhiyi? Because that's the rumour I heard, though she denies it.

Nah, no link.  Just a rumour that I heard from some friends here.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on October 12, 2012, 06:28:32 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 11, 2012, 11:32:15 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 09:39:32 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 11, 2012, 09:11:01 PM
Bo Xilai also apparently paid a famous actress $1M US on ten separate occasions for sex.

Got a link?

And is it Zhang Zhiyi? Because that's the rumour I heard, though she denies it.

Nah, no link.  Just a rumour that I heard from some friends here.

:rolleyes: Why not quote Wiki when you're at it?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on October 12, 2012, 07:21:42 AM
Quote from: The Brain on October 12, 2012, 06:28:32 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 11, 2012, 11:32:15 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 11, 2012, 09:39:32 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 11, 2012, 09:11:01 PM
Bo Xilai also apparently paid a famous actress $1M US on ten separate occasions for sex.

Got a link?

And is it Zhang Zhiyi? Because that's the rumour I heard, though she denies it.

Nah, no link.  Just a rumour that I heard from some friends here.

:rolleyes: Why not quote Wiki when you're at it?

Hey,if you want harder details on celeb gossip, I suggest you try your luck with perezhilton.  ;)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 24, 2012, 05:23:26 AM
QuoteHuawei offers access to source code and equipment

Huawei has offered to give Australia unrestricted access to its software source code and equipment, as it looks to ease fears that it is a security threat.
Questions have been raised about the Chinese telecom firm's ties to the military, something it has denied.
Australia has previously blocked Huawei's plans to bid for work on its national broadband network.
Huawei said it needed to dispel myths and misinformation.
"Huawei has done a very poor job of communicating about ourselves and we must take full responsibility for that," said John Lord, chairman of Huawei's Australian arm.
He added that the company needed to be more open and would give the Australian authorities "complete and unrestricted access" to its software source code and equipment.
The comments were made in a speech by Mr Lord to Australia's National Press Club.

'Collaborative approach'
He also recommended that Australia should set up a cyber evaluation centre to test equipment used in the country's communication networks.
Mr Lord suggested the centre be funded by various telecom equipment vendors and operated by "security-cleared Australian nationals".
Huawei said it was necessary for the manufacturers and regulators to work together to allay security fears.
Mr Lord said that a similar centre had been established in the UK and that Huawei had given British security agencies access to its source codes, allowing them to test the security credentials of its equipment.
"No single country, agency, vendor, or telco has all the answers to solving cyber security issues," Mr Lord said.
"It requires a collaborative approach by all to ensure we can create the most secure telecommunications environment possible."

Showing the source code and equipment isn't the problem, you little yellow assholes.  It's the equipment you put in after showing the source code, shrink wrapped and sealed prior to install with "QA/QC" labels on them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on October 24, 2012, 06:50:22 AM
"Is China using it's telecom firms to spy on another countries?" Of course it does, why wouldn't it? They don't mind selling slaves to foreign companies, they don't mind destroying their own enviroment, they don't mind gunning down their students. Why should the world think that it is espionage which they can't stomach?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 24, 2012, 06:54:22 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2012, 06:50:22 AM
"Is China using it's telecom firms to spy on another countries?" Of course it does, why wouldn't it? They don't mind selling slaves to foreign companies, they don't mind destroying their own enviroment, they don't mind gunning down their students. Why should the world think that it is espionage which they can't stomach?

Getting caught spying is bad for business.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on October 24, 2012, 07:01:51 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 24, 2012, 06:54:22 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2012, 06:50:22 AM
"Is China using it's telecom firms to spy on another countries?" Of course it does, why wouldn't it? They don't mind selling slaves to foreign companies, they don't mind destroying their own enviroment, they don't mind gunning down their students. Why should the world think that it is espionage which they can't stomach?

Getting caught spying is bad for business.

There's a lot of markets for them to peddle their technology in and ones that would be most upset like America - well we already have the House telling us we should stay away from their products.

Besides, depending on how closely tied they are to Chinese gov't, they aren't exactly the same as a standard business. At least that's what the 60 minutes report told me.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on October 24, 2012, 07:12:10 AM
There is virtually no distinction between larger business and the Party. Or indeed, courts of law and the Party.  Thus every business dealing with China should be treated in essence as a dealing with the Communist Party, with any legal dispute in that country being decided by the selfsame Communist Party.  America is smart to stay far away from Huawei.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on October 24, 2012, 07:19:24 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 24, 2012, 07:12:10 AM
There is virtually no distinction between larger business and the Party. Or indeed, courts of law and the Party.  Thus every business dealing with China should be treated in essence as a dealing with the Communist Party, with any legal dispute in that country being decided by the selfsame Communist Party.  America is smart to stay far away from Huawei.

So how long until they come for you? :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on October 24, 2012, 07:30:04 AM
Quote from: garbon on October 24, 2012, 07:19:24 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 24, 2012, 07:12:10 AM
There is virtually no distinction between larger business and the Party. Or indeed, courts of law and the Party.  Thus every business dealing with China should be treated in essence as a dealing with the Communist Party, with any legal dispute in that country being decided by the selfsame Communist Party.  America is smart to stay far away from Huawei.

So how long until they come for you? :(

Never. They aren't a totalitarian state (anymore) in the sense westerners understand, but rather something rather different.   Anyway, I do like China and even think the Communist Party has much to recommend it based on realistic alternatives, but to deny the lack of distinction between big business and the Party would just be untrue.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on October 26, 2012, 12:27:33 AM
The Wen Family Empire :showoff:


http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/25/business/the-wen-family-empire.html (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/25/business/the-wen-family-empire.html)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 26, 2012, 12:54:30 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on October 26, 2012, 12:27:33 AM
The Wen Family Empire :showoff:


http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/25/business/the-wen-family-empire.html (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/25/business/the-wen-family-empire.html)

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/world/asia/china-blocks-web-access-to-new-york-times.html?smid=fb-nytimes&_r=0

QuoteHONG KONG — The Chinese government swiftly blocked access early Friday morning to the Chinese-language Web site of The New York Times from computers in mainland China and gradually halted access to the English-language site as well after the news organization posted an article in both languages describing wealth accumulated by the family of the country's prime minister.

The authorities were also blocking attempts to mention The Times or the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, in postings on Sina Weibo, an extremely popular mini-blogging service in China that resembles Twitter.

The Foreign Ministry spokesman on duty in Beijing early Friday morning did not immediately answer phone calls for comment.

China maintains the world's most extensive and sophisticated system for Internet censorship, employing tens of thousands of people to monitor what is said, delete entries that contravene the country's extensive and unpublished regulations and even write new entries that are favorable to the government.

Rebecca MacKinnon, a senior fellow specializing in Internet free expression and privacy issues at the New America Foundation, a nonpartisan group headquartered in Washington, said that the Chinese interruption of Internet access was typical of the response to information that offended leaders.

"This is what they do: they get mad, they block you," she said.

The English-language and Chinese-language Web sites of The Times are hosted on servers outside mainland China.

A spokeswoman for The Times, Eileen Murphy, expressed disappointment that Internet access had been blocked and noted that the Chinese-language Web site had attracted "great interest" in China.

"We hope that full access is restored shortly, and we will ask the Chinese authorities to ensure that our readers in China can continue to enjoy New York Times journalism," she said in a statement, adding, "We will continue to report and translate stories applying the same journalistic standards that are upheld across The New York Times."

Former President Jiang Zemin of China ordered an end to blocking of The New York Times Web site after meeting with journalists from The Times in August 2001. The company's Web sites, like those of most other foreign media organizations, have remained mostly free of blocking since then, with occasional, temporary exceptions.

By midmorning on Friday in China, access to both the English- and Chinese-language Web sites of The Times was blocked from all 31 cities in mainland China tested. The Times had posted the article in English at 4:34 p.m. on Thursday in New York (4:34 a.m. Friday in Beijing), and finished posting the article in Chinese by 8 a.m. Friday in Beijing after the translation of final edits to the English-language version. So Chinese blockage of Web access followed very quickly.

Publication of the article about Mr. Wen and his family comes at a delicate time in Chinese politics, during a year in which factional rivalries and the personal lives of Chinese leaders have come into public view to a rare extent and drawn unprecedented international interest.

The Times's statement called China "an increasingly open society, with increasingly sophisticated media," adding, "The response to our site suggests that The Times can play an important role in the government's efforts to raise the quality of journalism available to the Chinese people."

The New York Times is not the first international organization to run into trouble with Chinese censors. Google decided to move its servers for the Chinese market in January 2010, to Hong Kong, a semiautonomous Chinese territory outside the country's censorship firewalls, after the company was unable to reach an agreement with the Chinese authorities to allow unrestricted searches of the Internet.

Bloomberg published an article on June 29 describing wealth accumulated by the family of Vice President Xi Jinping, who is expected to become the country's next top leader as general secretary of the Communist Party during the coming Party Congress.

Since then, Bloomberg's operations have encountered a series of problems in mainland China, including the blocking of its Web site, which is in English.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 26, 2012, 02:07:02 AM
it does explain in part why Ping An is trying to sue the belgian government over losses suffered when Fortis Bank and Insurance collapsed in 2008/9
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 26, 2012, 05:12:36 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 24, 2012, 07:30:04 AM
Never. They aren't a totalitarian state (anymore) in the sense westerners understand, but rather something rather different.

You should stop smoking your own pubic hair.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 26, 2012, 10:31:07 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 26, 2012, 05:12:36 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 24, 2012, 07:30:04 AM
Never. They aren't a totalitarian state (anymore) in the sense westerners understand, but rather something rather different.

You should stop smoking your own pubic hair.

He's right, though. You are still stuck in the 70s apparently.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 26, 2012, 10:33:44 AM
Quote from: Jacob on October 26, 2012, 10:31:07 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 26, 2012, 05:12:36 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 24, 2012, 07:30:04 AM
Never. They aren't a totalitarian state (anymore) in the sense westerners understand, but rather something rather different.

You should stop smoking your own pubic hair.

He's right, though. You are still stuck in the 70s apparently.

Totalitarian is still totalitarian, regardless of the branding, you filthy Sinopologist traitor.  Replacing tanks with internet blocs doesn't change that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 26, 2012, 10:34:58 AM
The details about Wen's family finances were leaked on the same day as Bo was formally expelled from the party. It's not the kind of thing an investigative journalist would come across either. Right now, the US press is being used as part of the war being waged at the heart of the Chinese Communist Party.

Most likely a significant amount (if not all of it) of the anti-Japanese demonstrations are an attempt at a show of strength by the faction Bo was/is part of.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 26, 2012, 10:37:03 AM
QuoteChina blocks New York Times Web site after report on leader's wealth

No, not totalitarian at all.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 26, 2012, 12:31:31 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 26, 2012, 10:37:03 AM
QuoteChina blocks New York Times Web site after report on leader's wealth

No, not totalitarian at all.

I guess it depends on how you define totalitarian. I have to agree that you can legitimately call present-day China totalitarian.

Still, it has different characteristics than totalitarian China 20 years ago, not to mention 50 years ago.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 20, 2012, 08:15:56 PM
This looks like a worthwhile if depressing read: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-20410424
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on November 20, 2012, 08:19:02 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 20, 2012, 08:15:56 PM
This looks like a worthwhile if depressing read: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-20410424

Yes, I was just reading that.

Also interesting how he went about getting the information from different government/provincial departments.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: dps on November 20, 2012, 09:37:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 26, 2012, 12:31:31 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 26, 2012, 10:37:03 AM
QuoteChina blocks New York Times Web site after report on leader’s wealth

No, not totalitarian at all.

I guess it depends on how you define totalitarian. I have to agree that you can legitimately call present-day China totalitarian.

Still, it has different characteristics than totalitarian China 20 years ago, not to mention 50 years ago.

It's definately authoritarian, if not totalitarian.  Either way, it's a one-party state with a terrible disregard for a lot of what most Americans would consider basic human rights.  Heh--it could be characterized as a one-party state in which the party itself can't decide if it wants to be authoritarian or totalitarian.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on November 20, 2012, 09:56:00 PM
Authoritarian, yes, but totalitarian no.  Totalitarian is more like an ideal, where the state has a major role in your entire life.  I'm not sure Nazi Germany was ever totalitarian.  It aspired to be, but was didn't last long enough and was too incompetent.  It take a lot of effort to have that much control.  East Germany, Stalin's Soviet Union, and Pol Pot's Cambodia are all totalitarian or close enough.  North Korea probably is, but since so little information comes out of there it's difficult to tell.  I don't think China ever was Totalitarian.  Mao's failures in statesmanship required the cultural revolution, bringing out the mob to suppress his enemies.  The NKVD would have just made potential enemies "disappear" with out all the chaos.  While I don't think China ever accomplished Totalitarian rule, most communist regimes aspired to it.  It simply takes enormous resources to turn your entire country into a prison.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on November 20, 2012, 09:57:45 PM
Totalitarian states seek to control ever measure of a person's life, and tolerate virtually no dissenting opinions, or even works of any kind that could be considered harmful.

Examples of such states would be Stalin's USSR, Nazi Germany, and arguably North Korea (at least for most of its history).

Modern China is authoritarian, but it cannot be considered totalitarian IMO because:
- it does tolerate some divergence of views and dicussion (albeit within real limits, hence 'authoritarian)
- it doesn't seek to mold individuals to reshape human behaviours or create a new man
- similarly, it doesn't seek to control all aspects of a person's life
- it doesn't force-feed ideology to nearly the same degree as above mentioned states
- in practice it tolerates a wide measure of non-approved works.

Thus while they are by no means democratic, nor are they "totalitarian."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on November 20, 2012, 10:08:37 PM
I would disagree with Nazi Germany as Totalitarian.  The Nazi state was chaotic and it's internal security forces inept.  You don't have a massive army coup attempt in a totalitarian society.  While the coup failed (mostly because it as a dumb plan), it does indicate the lack of control the Government had over it's own people.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: dps on November 20, 2012, 10:32:02 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 20, 2012, 10:08:37 PM
I would disagree with Nazi Germany as Totalitarian.  The Nazi state was chaotic and it's internal security forces inept.  You don't have a massive army coup attempt in a totalitarian society.  While the coup failed (mostly because it as a dumb plan), it does indicate the lack of control the Government had over it's own people.

It was totalitarian within the bounds of the main point of Pitiful Pathos' definition, which pretty much matches other definitions I've seen:
QuoteTotalitarian states seek to control ever measure of a person's life

The fact that someone occasionally manages to smuggle a few Bibles into North Korea doesn't make North Korea less totalitarian;  it just means that the government's claim of total authority over all areas of every citizen's life hasn't been achieved yet.  That Nazi Germany was even further from actually having that much control doesn't mean that it wasn't what they were aiming at.

Contrast that with a typical 2-bit dictatorship, where as long as you don't challange the ruling government's political control, pay the right bribes to the right people, and generally don't rock the boat too much, then the government doesn't much care what you do otherwise.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on November 20, 2012, 11:05:20 PM
Seeking to control and actually controlling are two different things.  I may seek to be a genius, but it won't make me one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 23, 2012, 12:06:48 PM
Apparently the Sanlu Milk scandal whistleblower was recently murdered.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 25, 2012, 08:22:14 PM
Little shits.


(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.euronews.com%2Fwires%2Freuters%2Fimages%2F2012-11-25T141820Z_1_CBRE8AO13QW00_RTROPTP_3_OUKWD-UK-CHINA-CARRIER.JPG&hash=58ddacebc19780ea4166b118f5623dead897973b)(https://image.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2012/11/25/1353856050049/Ground-crew-check-a-J-15--010.jpg)

Quote(Reuters) - China has carried out its first successful landing of a fighter jet on its first aircraft carrier, state media said on Sunday, a symbolically significant development as Asian neighbors fret about the world's most populous country's military ambitions.

The home-built J-15 fighter jet took off from and landed on the Liaoning, a reconditioned Soviet-era vessel from Ukraine which only came into service in September this year.

China ushered in a new generation of leaders this month at the 18th Communist Party Congress in Beijing, with outgoing President Hu Jintao making a pointed reference to strengthening China's naval forces, protecting maritime interests and the need to "win local war".

China is embroiled in disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam over South China Sea islands believed to be surrounded by waters rich in natural gas. It has a similar dispute with Japan over islands in the East China Sea.

It has also warned the United States, with President Barack Obama's "pivot" to Asia, not to get involved.

"We should make active planning for the use of military forces in peacetime, expand and intensify military preparedness, and enhance the capability to accomplish a wide range of military tasks, the most important of which is to win local war in an information age," Hu said.

China has advertised its long-term military ambitions with shows of new hardware, including its first test flight of a stealth fighter jet in early 2011, an elite helicopter unit and the launch of the aircraft carrier.

China is boosting military spending by 11.2 percent this year, bringing official outlays on the People's Liberation Army to 670.3 billion yuan ($100 billion) for 2012, after a 12.7 percent increase last year and a near-unbroken string of double-digit rises across two decades.

Beijing's public budget is widely thought by foreign experts to undercount its real spending on military modernization, which has drawn repeated calls from the United States for China to share more about its intentions.

China's state-run Xinhua news portal said the J-15 - which can carry multi-type anti-ship, air-to-air, and air-to-ground missiles - is comparable to the Russian Su-33 jet and the U.S. F-18. It did not say when the landing on the carrier took place.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on November 25, 2012, 08:25:37 PM
Y'all need to look up their new pterodactyl drone.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 25, 2012, 08:30:13 PM
I find it endlessly interesting how China's "home-built" shit is always so strikingly similar to Russian home-built shit.

Meh, they'll all splash the same anyway against real aircraft.  TALK TO ME GOOSE
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on November 25, 2012, 08:31:49 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 25, 2012, 08:30:13 PM
I find it endlessly interesting how China's "home-built" shit is always so strikingly similar to Russian home-built shit.

Meh, they'll all splash the same anyway against real aircraft.  TALK TO ME GOOSE

Or looks American, like the pterodactyl.

http://theaviationist.com/2012/11/20/pterodactyl/#.ULLGcZG9KK0
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 25, 2012, 08:41:29 PM
As much as I bitch about those godless little yellow fucking bastards ripping us off, I'm confident that they possess the same fucked up QA/QC nonsense in their manufacturing supply chains that they have for everything else those little shits make.

That Pterodactyl is probably filled with sawdust, and covered in lead paint anyway.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on November 25, 2012, 08:43:37 PM
The nose is filled with aborted girl fetuses.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 25, 2012, 08:48:24 PM
Nah, that's what the under wing pylons are for.  EAGRE ONE FOXFETUS AWAY

Nose cone's got poisoned pet food in it.  For ballast, you know.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 26, 2012, 02:37:31 AM
Quote from: Jacob on November 23, 2012, 12:06:48 PM
Apparently the Sanlu Milk scandal whistleblower was recently murdered.
Could you give us some more context?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on November 26, 2012, 02:03:05 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2012/11/26/heres-the-chinese-passport-map-thats-infuriating-much-of-asia/

QuoteHere's the Chinese passport map that's infuriating much of Asia

China's new official passport carries, on its eighth page, a watermark map of China that has set off diplomatic disputes with four neighboring countries. The small map shows a version of China that includes disputed territory claimed by India, a vast stretch of the South China Sea, including islands claimed by several other countries, and the entirety of Taiwan.

The map seems to affront diplomatic protocol around the disputed territory; it risks exacerbating regional fears of Chinese heavy-handedness with its neighbors and their sovereignty. Southeast Asian nations, on guard against China's rising strength and sometimes pushy foreign policy, have been edging away from Beijing in recent years. So this map is probably not going to help.

The offended Asian nations are striking back in their own ways. Vietnamese border officials are refusing to stamp the new passports. India is stamping its own version of the map on visas issued to Chinese citizens. The Taiwanese and Filipino governments have formally complained.

Here is my rough annotation of the passport maps, with the disputed regions highlighted and labeled. To give a sense of scale, Arunachal Pradesh, the disputed region in the middle of the map, is a bit larger than Maine or South Carolina. The South China Sea islands, of which there are many, are all part of China's sweeping claim.

One encouraging sign is that, as far as I can tell, the map does not include the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, which are claimed by China and Japan, and which have become a source of considerable tension and nationalist protests this year.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fblogs%2Fworldviews%2Ffiles%2F2012%2F11%2FAP698624082433.jpg&hash=a710794e034b71773b968898d2e2d6ea454174fa)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fblogs%2Fworldviews%2Ffiles%2F2012%2F11%2Fpassport4.jpg&hash=0585220b5848aa44d18f776e06568de73ddf49f9)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on November 26, 2012, 02:16:34 PM
Who could imagine getting worked up over a few little dashes?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on November 26, 2012, 02:26:43 PM
It's kind of a vague map.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 26, 2012, 02:28:24 PM
Wilhelm II is advising the Chinese on foreign policy I guess?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 26, 2012, 02:29:21 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 26, 2012, 02:16:34 PM
Who could imagine getting worked up over a few little dashes?

You know how they are over there.  It's all about :face: , whether it's saving it or upholding it.

I'd love the ROC respond in kind with their passport, and put the mainland in it.  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Malthus on November 26, 2012, 06:04:45 PM
At first, that passport pic looked sort of like a bloodstain on a mattress in a police forensics picture ...  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 27, 2012, 03:47:56 AM
clearly meant as a slap to other nations, the way they include the southern sda is stupid. i love the printing a correct version idea that india has.
it is weird theyve not blown the senkakus up to 1000 times their actual size and included them though...

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 26, 2012, 02:29:21 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 26, 2012, 02:16:34 PM
Who could imagine getting worked up over a few little dashes?

You know how they are over there.  It's all about :face: , whether it's saving it or upholding it.

I'd love the ROC respond in kind with their passport, and put the mainland in it.  :lol:


given the stupidity of taiwans status that would probally be uncontroversial and looked on well by china. if they just printed taiwan however....
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 27, 2012, 06:02:18 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 27, 2012, 03:47:56 AM
clearly meant as a slap to other nations, the way they include the southern sda is stupid. i love the printing a correct version idea that india has.
it is weird theyve not blown the senkakus up to 1000 times their actual size and included them though...

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 26, 2012, 02:29:21 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 26, 2012, 02:16:34 PM
Who could imagine getting worked up over a few little dashes?

You know how they are over there.  It's all about :face: , whether it's saving it or upholding it.

I'd love the ROC respond in kind with their passport, and put the mainland in it.  :lol:


given the stupidity of taiwans status that would probally be uncontroversial and looked on well by china. if they just printed taiwan however....

if they coloured it with the NatChi flag however...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 27, 2012, 06:59:18 AM
Lol  :D

http://english.people.com.cn/90777/8035568.html
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 27, 2012, 01:28:38 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 25, 2012, 08:30:13 PM
I find it endlessly interesting how China's "home-built" shit is always so strikingly similar to Russian home-built shit.

Russian design + Chinese manufacture > Chinese design + Russian manufacture.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 27, 2012, 09:11:19 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 27, 2012, 06:59:18 AM
Lol  :D

http://english.people.com.cn/90777/8035568.html

I think everyone there is being too quick to jump the gun given the recent Iranian example of taking the onion seriously (It was the onion right?).
It might not be the case there though, they're straight forwardly saying it was the onion who did it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: citizen k on November 30, 2012, 11:25:32 PM

Quote
In China, perhaps even more than in Britain, a man's home is his castle.

So when 38-year-old Shen Jianzhong was faced with a mob of thugs trying to evict him, he asked himself what his hero, Bruce Lee, would do.

The answer, according to a video that has attracted more than two million hits on the Chinese internet, is turn to kung fu.

For 20 years, Mr Shen had been practising kung fu, teaching himself Bruce Lee's system in his courtyard home in Bazhou, Hebei province.

Working in a local gym as a fitness coach, he is also the holder of a world record, at least according to an association in Hong Kong, for the most press-ups in a minute using a roller. "I am now training to break the record for most press-ups on a balance beam," he said.

At the end of October, Mr Shen was able to put his kung fu into action. For six months, a property developer had been trying to get his hands on Mr Shen's house.

"They called it a remodelling project, to turn our village into a town," he said.

"They wanted to tear down the whole street, and promised we would get a new house of the same size in two years, as well as rent to cover the interim.

But I heard of people in a neighbouring village getting a much better deal, so we refused to sign."

At first, the property company stuck up posters warning of dire consequences for any families who held out. Then, Mr Shen said, when 70 of the 100 households had left, the threats escalated.

"This mob of thugs would block the street most days. They would pick on the women, threatening to kill their kids. Then people started tossing bricks through windows and letting off fireworks at night. Some people got beaten on the street."

On October 29, as Mr Shen went to work and his wife popped out for a packet of instant noodles, a mob of "30 to 50 men" materialised at their front door.

"My wife tried to close the door, but they pushed it back and she tripped over. That is how the fight started," said Mr Shen.

With a flurry of kicks and punches, he and his 18-year-old son, a fellow kung fu devotee, set about the attackers, rendering seven of them near unconscious in the hallway.

"It was self defence. I really cannot remember what kung fu skills I used.

It was quite messy. Only seven people were injured because the rest were scared and stayed outside. Some of them ran away," he said.

When the police arrived, however, they were little help, insisting that since the thugs were unarmed, it was Mr Shen and his family who were in the wrong. They urged the family to sign the contract.

Instead, the Shens posted their homemade video online, where it has gone viral as a rare David versus Goliath moment in the bleak fight against China's avaricious property barons.

They then fled, on the evening of November 21, to Beijing. Upon arriving in the capital, however, Mr Shen's son was arrested by the police, who said they would charge him with assault.

"I do not regret the fight, but I am worried about my son," said Mr Shen.

"I think they are trying to fit up him up with some crime. I am concerned that my actions will end up hurting him," he said, acknowledging that officials may try to emotionally blackmail him into signing over his lease.

As the Telegraph interviewed Mr Shen, however, his phone rang. It was, he said, a man named Zhou Jin, who claimed to be a member of the Central Military Commission, which oversees the People's Liberation Army.

"He said he had seen my plight and was outraged. He said I should not give any interviews to the media and he would come and collect me in his car this afternoon," said Mr Shen.

An attempt to contact Mr Zhou on the number he provided failed, but perhaps Mr Shen's bravura has won him a powerful ally.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-kung-fu-expert-beats-up-men-who-came-to-evict-him-from-home-2012-11 (http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-kung-fu-expert-beats-up-men-who-came-to-evict-him-from-home-2012-11)

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 01, 2012, 12:36:42 AM
I thought the video would have the fight :(

I'm confused about what happened...sounds like he has been dissapeared.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 04, 2012, 06:33:34 PM
Fresh rumours: a wave of arrest amongst officials.

The mother of the young man who died in the ferrari car crash (rumoured in the company of two naked young women) right around the time the Bo Xilai affair went down. Several others as well. More sex tapes have appeared involving various officials.

I guess it makes sense that different people are cleaning house at this time.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 04, 2012, 06:45:02 PM
Pornography featuring Chinese communist party bureaucrats.  That seems rather unappealing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 04, 2012, 06:46:43 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 04, 2012, 06:45:02 PM
Pornography featuring Chinese communist party bureaucrats.  That seems rather unappealing.

They showed one guys 'O' face.  :yuk:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 04, 2012, 08:33:43 PM
Yeah that dude is not pretty, even at his best. Anyhow, word is that more such scandals are coming.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on December 05, 2012, 01:47:26 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2012, 06:33:34 PM
Fresh rumours: a wave of arrest amongst officials.

The mother of the young man who died in the ferrari car crash (rumoured in the company of two naked young women) right around the time the Bo Xilai affair went down. Several others as well. More sex tapes have appeared involving various officials.

I guess it makes sense that different people are cleaning house at this time.
"Thank you. I'm well. Don't worry," read the post on a Chinese social networking site. The brief comment, published in June, appeared to come from Ling Gu, the 23-year-old son of a high-powered aide to China's president, and it helped quash reports that he had been killed in a Ferrari crash after a night of partying.

It only later emerged that the message was a sham, posted by someone under Mr. Ling's alias — almost three months after his death.

How Crash Cover-Up Altered China's Succession: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/05/world/asia/how-crash-cover-up-altered-chinas-succession.html
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 10, 2012, 03:01:57 PM
The 50-cent party: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2012/10/china%E2%80%99s-paid-trolls-meet-50-cent-party

To think that people do this for free in the West.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 10, 2012, 03:29:26 PM
New rumours about the Ferrari accident:

Ling Ji Huan (the guy in Philip V's article) was a close advisor to Hu Jin Tao, so his arrest was initially seen as a blow to Hu. The new rumour is that Ling was a friend of the Bo family and was promoted because of Bo Xi Lai's father.

However, Ling was the person who signed off on Bo Xi Lai's arrest. So, the new rumour is that the death of Ling's son was arranged as pay back for the arrest of Bo.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on December 10, 2012, 04:54:13 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 26, 2012, 02:16:34 PM
Who could imagine getting worked up over a few little dashes?

My wife's Argentina passport map has the Falklands and a big slice of Antarctica.  Always good for a chuckle.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 13, 2012, 02:50:33 PM
China and Japan send planes to those islands.

PLA instructed to be ready for "regional war": http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/China/China-asks-army-to-be-ready-for-regional-war/Article1-972474.aspx
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 13, 2012, 02:51:08 PM
... so basically, nothing new  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 13, 2012, 08:23:40 PM
Quote

Thursday also marked the 75th anniversary of the beginning of an episode known as the Nanjing Massacre, when the Japanese Imperial Army troops entered Nanjing, the then-Chinese capital and triggered large-scale violence.
what a strange coincidence :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Alcibiades on December 14, 2012, 06:10:26 PM
That drone is an exact copy of the American Predator drone  :lol:



And I wonder how many of those Chinese navy crewman on the Aircraft carrier are prior American Navy serviceman.   :rolleyes:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 14, 2012, 06:30:41 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 10, 2012, 03:01:57 PM
The 50-cent party: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2012/10/china%E2%80%99s-paid-trolls-meet-50-cent-party

To think that people do this for free in the West.
You can find them in the club?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: citizen k on December 21, 2012, 03:20:25 AM
Quote
China's airing of 'V for Vendetta' stuns viewers
By By LOUISE WATT | Associated Press – Thu, Dec 20, 2012

BEIJING (AP) — Television audiences across China watched an anarchist antihero rebel against a totalitarian government and persuade the people to rule themselves. Soon the Internet was crackling with quotes of "V for Vendetta's" famous line: "People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people."
The airing of the movie Friday night on China Central Television stunned viewers and raised hopes that China is loosening censorship.
"V for Vendetta" never appeared in Chinese theaters, but it is unclear whether it was ever banned. An article on the Communist Party's People's Daily website says it was previously prohibited from broadcast, but the spokesman for the agency that approves movies said he was not aware of any ban.
Some commentators and bloggers think the broadcast could be CCTV producers pushing the envelope of censorship, or another sign that the ruling Communist Party's newly installed leader, Xi Jinping, is serious about reform.
"Oh God, CCTV unexpectedly put out 'V for Vendetta.' I had always believed that film was banned in China!" media commentator Shen Chen wrote on the popular Twitter-like Sina Weibo service, where he has over 350,000 followers.
Zhang Ming, a supervisor at a real estate company, asked on Weibo: "For the first time CCTV-6 aired 'V for Vendetta,' what to think, is the reform being deepened?"
The 2005 movie, based on a comic book, is set in an imagined future Britain with a fascist government. The protagonist wears a mask of Guy Fawkes, the 17th-century English rebel who tried to blow up Parliament. The mask has become a revolutionary symbol for young protesters in mostly Western countries, and it also has a cult-like status in China as pirated DVDs are widely available. Some people have used the image of the mask as their profile pictures on Chinese social media sites.
Beijing-based rights activist Hu Jia wrote on Twitter, which is not accessible to most Chinese because of government Internet controls: "This great film couldn't be any more appropriate for our current situation. Dictators, prisons, secret police, media control, riots, getting rid of 'heretics' ... fear, evasion, challenging lies, overcoming fear, resistance, overthrowing tyranny ... China's dictators and its citizens also have this relationship."
China's authoritarian government strictly controls print media, television and radio. Censors also monitor social media sites including Weibo. Programs have to be approved by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, but people with knowledge of the industry say CCTV, the only company with a nationwide broadcast license, is entitled to make its own censorship decisions when showing a foreign movie.
"It is already broadcast. It is no big deal," said a woman who answered the phone at movie channel CCTV-6. "We also didn't anticipate such a big reaction."
The woman, who only gave her surname, Yang, said she would pass on questions to her supervisor, which weren't answered.
The spokesman for the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television said he had noticed the online reaction to the broadcast. "I've not heard of any ban on this movie," Wu Baoan said Thursday.
The film is available on video-on-demand platforms in China, where movie content also needs to be approved by authorities.
A political scientist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences who used to work for CCTV said the film might have approval, or it could have been CCTV's own decision to broadcast it.
"Every media outlet knows there is a ceiling above their head," said Liu Shanying. "Sometimes we will work under the ceiling and avoid touching it. But sometimes we have a few brave ones who want to reach that ceiling and even express their discontent over the censor system.
"It is very possible that CCTV decided by itself" to broadcast the film, Liu said. If so, he added, it would have been "due to a gut feeling that China's film censorship will be loosened or reformed."
"V for Vendetta" was released in the United States in 2005 and around the world in 2006. China has a yearly quota on the numbers of foreign movies that can be imported on a revenue share basis, making it tough to get distribution approval. Other movies that failed to reach Chinese screens in 2006 include "Brokeback Mountain" and "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest." Chinese moviegoers that year were able to see "Mission: Impossible III" with Tom Cruise and "The Painted Veil," which was filmed in China and set in a Chinese village.
Warner Brothers, which produced and distributed "V for Vendetta," declined to comment.
China doesn't have a classification system, so all movies shown at its cinemas are open to adults and children of any age. A filmmaker and Beijing Film Academy professor, Xie Fei, published an open letter on Sina Weibo on Saturday calling for authorities to replace the movie censorship system that dates from the 1950s with a ratings system.
The airing of "V for Vendetta" raised some hopes about possible changes under Xi, who was publicly named China's new leader last month. He has already announced a trimmed-down style of leadership, calling on officials to reduce waste and unnecessary meetings and pomp. His reforms are aimed at pleasing a public long frustrated by local corruption.
State media say they have reduced reports on officials' trips as part of this drive. The official Xinhua News Agency warned this week that media outlets should "learn to play professionally in today's information age as an increasingly picky audience is constantly" putting them under scrutiny.
An American business consultant and author with high-level Chinese contacts said there is no less commitment to one-party rule in China, so any media reforms will only go so far.
"You can't have a totally free media as we would have in the West and still maintain the integrity of a one-party system," said Robert Lawrence Kuhn, who wrote the book "How China's Leaders Think." He said he thinks restrictions are being eased, "but it has to be limited."
The new leadership has to tread carefully, Kuhn said, because in the age of the Internet, talk about reforms won't be forgotten.
"High expectations, if they are not fulfilled, will create a worse situation," he said.


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 21, 2012, 03:48:56 AM
As with many things in China, the Chinese censorship system is arbitrary. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 21, 2012, 05:58:56 AM
Ugh, what an awful movie.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Martinus on December 21, 2012, 09:23:01 AM
V for Vendetta is one of my favourite movies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on December 21, 2012, 09:30:31 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 21, 2012, 05:58:56 AM
Ugh, what an awful movie.

England previals!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on December 21, 2012, 09:36:46 AM
Isn't the "evil government" in V4V a tyrannical theocracy?  I'd think being against that fits in with communist revolutionary philosophy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on December 21, 2012, 09:43:44 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 21, 2012, 09:36:46 AM
Isn't the "evil government" in V4V a tyrannical theocracy?  I'd think being against that fits in with communist revolutionary philosophy.

Well one of the reasons Mao decided to launch the Cultural Revolution was because the mayor of Beijing (I think?) wrote a play where the hero criticizes a Chinese Emperor which Mao took as encouraging people to speak out against him.  So I don't think the nature of the government a piece of media encourages the people to dissent against matters much.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on December 21, 2012, 09:55:49 AM
Haven't seen the movie, but liked the comic a fair bit. My favorite Alan Moore book remains From Hell, though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on December 21, 2012, 10:02:29 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 21, 2012, 05:58:56 AM
Ugh, what an awful movie.

I was rather disappointed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 07, 2013, 01:49:18 PM

An opportunity for the new leaders of China to show what direction they are taking the country as journalists at China Southern Weekly calling out media censorship: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-20929826

Meanwhile, reforms are announced to the labour camp system: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-01/07/c_132086216.htm

Basically, in China if you have a problem with your local officials, you can attempt to petition the central government for redress. However, if there are too many petitioners for a particular region or official, it will make the local people in power look back. As a result, there's a whole system of semi-official law enforcement dedicated to harassing, bribing and otherwise dissuading people from following through on their petitions. One of the common tools is sending the petitioners off to these reeducation camps. So... if these reforms take place, that's a step in the right direction (assuming they're not replaced with something worse, of course).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2013, 01:28:50 PM
From the Economist:

During the Cultural Revolution, the Red Guards pushed to change the meaning of traffic lights.  They wanted red to mean go, green to mean stop.  :lol:

This was brought up in an article about a new law making it illegal for drivers to enter an intersection after the light turns yellow.  :wacko:  :frusty: :bleeding:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on January 14, 2013, 06:21:54 PM
Making Chinese obey existing traffic lights would probably be the first step.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 15, 2013, 11:25:59 PM
From today's NYT:

QuoteOp-Ed Contributor
Dim Hopes for a Free Press in China
By XIAO SHU
Published: January 14, 2013

GUANGZHOU, China

A STANDOFF between one of China's biggest newspapers, Southern Weekend, and the national government ended last week with compromises on both sides. Southern Weekend hit the newsstands as usual on Thursday, after protesting staff members backed down from a threatened strike. The authorities, for their part, made tacit concessions, ending pre-publication censorship by the Communist Party's propaganda arm in Guangdong Province and permitting greater editorial independence.

The episode drew worldwide attention to the problem of press freedom in China and threatened to escalate into broader protests across Chinese society. Over the past decade, standards of journalistic professionalism have risen in China, even though most news organizations are controlled, directly or indirectly, by the state. These news outlets do not challenge the basic legitimacy of Communist rule, but have raised their standards for evaluating news according to journalistic significance rather than party interests.

But in the last few years, amid rising social unrest, the government has intensified its efforts at "preserving stability." One consequence has been a dramatic increase in control of the media. As a senior commentator at Southern Weekend for six years, I experienced both the flourishing of journalistic professionalism and its decline. Although I sometimes sharply criticized the government, my standpoint was impartial and balanced rather than antagonistic, and I did my best to maintain a position of independent neutrality. Most of my colleagues at Southern Weekend took the same approach.

Even so, at the end of March 2011, I was forced to resign from Southern Weekend, without any warning or explanation. This was a time of heightened tensions, when the authorities worried that the democratic revolutions taking place in the Middle East and North Africa might spread to China, and cracked down on individuals seen as potentially encouraging unrest. The pressure on commentators like me followed a similar crackdown on investigative reporting, much of which had been devoted to exposing corruption and had threatened special interest groups that are influential in elite Chinese politics.

Investigative reporting and opinion commentary are the two hallmarks of Chinese journalism, and the party has moved to crack down on both. My departure from Southern Weekend came as the editors capitulated to government pressure and quickly constrained the space for open discourse. Former colleagues have told me that since my departure, Southern Weekly's journalists find themselves walking a tightrope with every sentence they write.

This state of affairs came to a climax last May, when Tuo Zhen became head of party propaganda in Guangdong, China's most populous province. He enforced his power to the extreme and without an iota of flexibility, and micromanaged every aspect of media operations. Major topics of news coverage had to be approved by him, as did important articles, especially opinion essays. He even ordered changes in punctuation.

He was in fact a tyrant who cracked down on the press as zealously as Wang Lijun, the former police chief in the city of Chongqing, had cracked down on criminals without due process. Under Mr. Tuo, the press in Guangdong retreated into its darkest period since the start of Deng Xiaoping's "reform and opening up" policies in the late 1970s. Southern Weekend, a symbol of news professionalism because of its relative independence, bore the brunt of Mr. Tuo's attacks.

The run-up to the 18th Communist Party Congress in November was accompanied by the most oppressive social atmosphere of the past decade. The flare-up at Southern Weekend, over an editorial that had called for greater respect for constitutional rights until it was changed by censors, was the culmination of rancor that had been building for a long time.

The crisis has subsided, but there is little room for future optimism, because the deep-seated question has not been resolved: Is there, in fact, room for professional journalism to survive and develop within the system? It is on this question that not only journalists but Chinese in every sector of society have expressed doubt and exasperation. The repression of journalistic professionalism is not merely a journalistic issue, but also signifies the government's assault on society in general, and has exceeded the limits of public tolerance.

The fate of journalistic independence in China will depend on whether the authorities implement or backtrack on their tacit concessions. Public vigilance is essential if progress is to occur.

Does the political system have the flexibility to tolerate the professionalism pursued by journalists, and the press freedom demanded by society at large? How much will the new party leadership make good on its commitment to governance reforms and adherence to the Constitution? The Southern Weekend episode does not provide a clear answer.

Any sign of progress is worth encouraging, but rather than shedding tears of gratitude for promises that may prove empty, the Chinese people need to keep their shoulders to the plow and continue their own efforts to create the society they wish to live in.

Xiao Shu is the pen name of Chen Min, who was an opinion writer at Southern Weekend until 2011. He is on the editorial board of the history journal Yanhuang Chunqiu and a fellow at the Transition Institute, which focuses on political reform in China. This essay was translated by Stacy Mosher from the Chinese.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 16, 2013, 06:04:43 PM
The One Child Policy is here to stay.

http://behindthewall.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/16/16544706-china-one-child-policy-is-here-to-stay?lite
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 16, 2013, 11:49:04 PM
Of course it is. Its a handy source of extra revenue that a corrupt government like China's would never pass up.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on January 24, 2013, 06:54:44 AM
Former Softcore Porn Star is China's Hottest New Politician

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/01/24/former-sex-film-star-is-chinas-hottest-new-politician/

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FOB-WC498_pengda_DV_20130124054932.jpg&hash=5673971d3dbbcd65dd2b2cc2e7d64ec4da13d20d)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 24, 2013, 08:05:17 AM
I won't call CPPCC members "politicians"  :lol:  That body is even more powerless than the People's Congress.  Those are just empty titles for people like movie stars, retired civil servants, local businessmen etc. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on January 25, 2013, 01:33:47 AM
Chinese Graduates Say No to Factory Jobs <_<

"Many factories are desperate for workers, despite offering double-digit annual pay increases and improved benefits.

Wang Zengsong is desperate for a steady job. He has been unemployed for most of the three years since he graduated from a community college here after growing up on a rice farm. Mr. Wang, 25, has worked only several months at a time in low-paying jobs, once as a shopping mall guard, another time as a restaurant waiter and most recently as an office building security guard.

But he will not consider applying for a full-time factory job because Mr. Wang, as a college graduate, thinks that is beneath him. Instead, he searches every day for an office job, which would initially pay as little as a third of factory wages.

"I have never and will never consider a factory job — what's the point of sitting there hour after hour, doing repetitive work?" he asked.

Millions of recent college graduates in China like Mr. Wang are asking the same question. A result is an anomaly: Jobs go begging in factories while many educated young workers are unemployed or underemployed. A national survey of urban residents, released this winter by a Chinese university, showed that among people in their early 20s, those with a college degree were four times as likely to be unemployed as those with only an elementary school education."

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/business/as-graduates-rise-in-china-office-jobs-fail-to-keep-up.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/business/as-graduates-rise-in-china-office-jobs-fail-to-keep-up.html)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgraphics8.nytimes.com%2Fimages%2F2013%2F01%2F25%2Fbusiness%2FJOBS-2%2FJOBS-2-articleInline.jpg&hash=1db1cb934edc7655db0c688c5e245285ab923680)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 25, 2013, 03:14:53 AM
Well that's just stupid.
Take what you can get till you get what you want.

Quote
"I have never and will never consider a factory job — what's the point of sitting there hour after hour, doing repetitive work?" he asked.
:hmm:
I've read Mono's stories and......




QuoteFormer Softcore Porn Star is China's Hottest New Politician

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/01/24/former-sex-film-star-is-chinas-hottest-new-politician/
I approve.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 25, 2013, 08:54:10 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on January 25, 2013, 01:33:47 AM
since he graduated from a community college here

"I have never and will never consider a factory job — what's the point of sitting there hour after hour, doing repetitive work?" he asked.

Even in China, a community college degree doesn't earn you the right to be snobby.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on January 25, 2013, 02:24:23 PM
Lust will destroy you! :o

Chinese Officials Fired Over Sex Scandal

'China's state news media reported on Friday details of a sex extortion ring that brazenly operated "honey traps" in the southwest metropolis of Chongqing for several years. The widening scandal, which first emerged late last year, has led to the dismissals of at least 11 officials of the Communist Party, government or state-owned companies for having sex with women in the ring and then being blackmailed by the men who had set up the snares.'

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/world/asia/chinese-officials-fired-over-chongqing-sex-scandal.html
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on January 25, 2013, 03:54:06 PM

QuoteFormer Softcore Porn Star is China's Hottest New Politician

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/01/24/former-sex-film-star-is-chinas-hottest-new-politician/


For Cal/CdM...

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.mcomet.com%2FuploadFile%2F2007-11%2F2007117541524211442008989.jpg&hash=4b2487ce3ba8d3957c35b939a2ac70123b85b951)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 25, 2013, 05:57:04 PM
She doesn't even do full nude.  Only showed her breasts at most, I think.  She is actually an accomplished dancer, so her trademark move is to do the splits.  The newspapers like to make fun of the fact that her upper lips are abnormally thin.  She has a habit of using lipstick to cover that up. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 25, 2013, 06:01:24 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on January 25, 2013, 01:33:47 AM
Chinese Graduates Say No to Factory Jobs <_<

"Many factories are desperate for workers, despite offering double-digit annual pay increases and improved benefits.

Wang Zengsong is desperate for a steady job. He has been unemployed for most of the three years since he graduated from a community college here after growing up on a rice farm. Mr. Wang, 25, has worked only several months at a time in low-paying jobs, once as a shopping mall guard, another time as a restaurant waiter and most recently as an office building security guard.

But he will not consider applying for a full-time factory job because Mr. Wang, as a college graduate, thinks that is beneath him. Instead, he searches every day for an office job, which would initially pay as little as a third of factory wages.

"I have never and will never consider a factory job — what's the point of sitting there hour after hour, doing repetitive work?" he asked.

Millions of recent college graduates in China like Mr. Wang are asking the same question. A result is an anomaly: Jobs go begging in factories while many educated young workers are unemployed or underemployed. A national survey of urban residents, released this winter by a Chinese university, showed that among people in their early 20s, those with a college degree were four times as likely to be unemployed as those with only an elementary school education."

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/business/as-graduates-rise-in-china-office-jobs-fail-to-keep-up.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/business/as-graduates-rise-in-china-office-jobs-fail-to-keep-up.html)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgraphics8.nytimes.com%2Fimages%2F2013%2F01%2F25%2Fbusiness%2FJOBS-2%2FJOBS-2-articleInline.jpg&hash=1db1cb934edc7655db0c688c5e245285ab923680)

It isn't just a matter of status.  It is much more comfortable to sit in an air-conditioned cubicle than to work the assembly lines.  Office work also offers a much better chance in promotion and future prospects.  Few factory workers become managers.  Once you start doing factory work there is no going back. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 25, 2013, 06:06:36 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on January 25, 2013, 02:24:23 PM
Lust will destroy you! :o

Chinese Officials Fired Over Sex Scandal

'China's state news media reported on Friday details of a sex extortion ring that brazenly operated "honey traps" in the southwest metropolis of Chongqing for several years. The widening scandal, which first emerged late last year, has led to the dismissals of at least 11 officials of the Communist Party, government or state-owned companies for having sex with women in the ring and then being blackmailed by the men who had set up the snares.'

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/world/asia/chinese-officials-fired-over-chongqing-sex-scandal.html

I think it's "honey trap," singular. This is the picture going around purporting to be of the woman who brought down Zhengfu Lei and the 10 other officials:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Foi47.tinypic.com%2F2z8votz.jpg&hash=c85e6412ae494bf8203d270171b76012fbf5c299)

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 25, 2013, 06:11:35 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 25, 2013, 03:14:53 AM
Well that's just stupid.
Take what you can get till you get what you want.

Quote
"I have never and will never consider a factory job — what's the point of sitting there hour after hour, doing repetitive work?" he asked.
:hmm:
I've read Mono's stories and......



You don't understand me.  I *want* to do repetitive work.  It is just that I don't get it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 26, 2013, 12:15:39 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 25, 2013, 05:57:04 PM
She doesn't even do full nude.  Only showed her breasts at most, I think.  She is actually an accomplished dancer, so her trademark move is to do the splits.  The newspapers like to make fun of the fact that her upper lips are abnormally thin.  She has a habit of using lipstick to cover that up.

Who gives a shit.  I'd give her a squirt of my duck sauce right between those lips, lipstick or not.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on January 26, 2013, 06:06:09 AM
Well, I can never eat duck again.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 26, 2013, 06:08:16 AM
I think Seeds might need to get his pipes checked.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 26, 2013, 06:15:36 AM
My pipes froze and burst many winters ago.   :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on January 28, 2013, 07:18:08 AM
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/486139_10152286285562588_23397407_n.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 07, 2013, 10:27:10 PM
Fresh rumor: Zhou Yongkang is said to have committed suicide.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 08, 2013, 11:56:01 PM
Big in Chinese media right now: some people who were falsely accused of rape and murder where set free when it came to light there was no evidence against them and their confessions were brutally tortured. The policewoman in charge of their case was previously lauded as a hero for solving so many cases so quickly; there's some sort of back and forth whether this was simply "one mistake" or a pattern.

In any case, she is seen as a protege (if somewhat down the line) of Zhou Yongkang who was known for that sort of brutal tactics in his career (and as the powerful Minister of Public Security). Whether Zhou has committed suicide or not, it seems that his star - and hopefully his approach - is waning.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on April 09, 2013, 05:36:52 AM
Wary of China, Companies Head South

'Manufacturers are flocking to Southeast Asian countries like Cambodia, below, as a way to limit their reliance on factories in China, where blue-collar wages have surged.'

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/09/business/global/wary-of-events-in-china-foreign-investors-head-to-cambodia.html

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1.nyt.com%2Fimages%2F2013%2F04%2F09%2Fbusiness%2Finvest-web2%2Finvest-web2-hpMedium.jpg&hash=2ee86f432e5563d4824c380c59dc7366ed9b9301)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 09, 2013, 02:30:16 PM
The race to the bottom continues!

Some day they will run out of countries to flee to.  Then people might get paid again....or the robots will have fully taken over.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on April 09, 2013, 05:22:51 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 09, 2013, 02:30:16 PM
The race to the bottom continues!

Some day they will run out of countries to flee to.  Then people might get paid again....or the robots will have fully taken over.
That day will be a dark day for public order in the West.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on April 09, 2013, 05:58:32 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 09, 2013, 02:30:16 PM
The race to the bottom continues!

Some day they will run out of countries to flee to.  Then people might get paid again....or the robots will have fully taken over.
they'll get paid but won't be able to afford anything :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 10, 2013, 10:54:45 AM
The Chinese textile sector still dwarfs its neighbors (about 10x larger than Vietnam).  The sheer size of the workforce and operations means that change will be incremental.  China also had infrastructure and transport advantages and productivity levels are higher so they can get away with somewhat higher wage levels for some time. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 11, 2013, 02:55:24 AM

Industry leaving China for SE Asia has been happening for some time. Something which China's international behaviour has really been helping along.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on May 01, 2013, 12:06:06 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FMK-CC856_CLABOR_G_20130430141203.jpg&hash=3db146bb39243bf714f108ff4ffc693aab16b393)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323798104578453073103566416.html
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on May 01, 2013, 12:13:46 PM
GL China. I'm not paying a guy $4 an hour.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 01, 2013, 12:36:20 PM
This is really a dog bites man story.

What is supposed to happen as a country develops successfully is that productivity gains eventually translate into higher wages and worker incomes.  As part of that process, the developing country eventually exits low valued-added, commoditized production for higher value production where productivity and technology matter more than raw wage levels.  This is a classic pattern that in the specific Asian context has been analogized to "flying geese": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_geese_paradigm.

In fact, the only thing that is a little unusual about the China example is that Chinese wages have increased more slowly than what could be merited given high levels of manufacturing productivity (roughly equivalent to that of a country with per capital GDP more than double current Chinese levels). 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 01, 2013, 03:34:52 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 01, 2013, 12:36:20 PM

In fact, the only thing that is a little unusual about the China example is that Chinese wages have increased more slowly than what could be merited given high levels of manufacturing productivity (roughly equivalent to that of a country with per capital GDP more than double current Chinese levels).

Why? Is it related to how our wages disconnected from the productivity increase?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 01, 2013, 03:42:54 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 01, 2013, 03:34:52 PM
Why?

It's hard to pinpoint because the Chinese economy is an odd hybrid of market and command systems.  A lot of the value added that is generated by the economy may be siphoned off in the form of corruption, or alterantively in stockpiling trillions of dollars in the form of inert foreign exchange reserves.  At the level of the labor market, the hukou system and the absence of any real unions also probably suppress wage growth.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ancient Demon on May 01, 2013, 06:10:25 PM
I'm a little surprised that labor costs are higher in China than in Thailand. I was under the impression that Thailand was more developed than China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 01, 2013, 08:16:31 PM
Chinese wages have increased a fair amount.
By all accounts there's too many jobs in China and not enough workers, they can pick and choose where they work, which is really boosting up the prices.

Maybe Thais don't have quite so horrific conditions when they work so the low pay doesn't seem so bad?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 01, 2013, 08:26:13 PM
I'd like to see the wage breakdown in China according to region.  I bet it's even higher than the $4 that chart shows along the coast than it is deep in the outback.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on May 02, 2013, 06:55:51 AM
New York Times headline: China Is Nearing U.S.'s Military Power in Region

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/02/world/asia/china-likely-to-challenge-us-supremacy-in-east-asia-report-says.html
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 02, 2013, 07:33:59 AM
Meh, those Carnegie people are weenies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 02, 2013, 08:09:20 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on May 02, 2013, 06:55:51 AM
China Is Nearing U.S.'s Military Power in Region

That would be cause for concern if our power in other regions was immobile.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Malthus on May 02, 2013, 09:37:16 AM
Quote from: Ancient Demon on May 01, 2013, 06:10:25 PM
I'm a little surprised that labor costs are higher in China than in Thailand. I was under the impression that Thailand was more developed than China.

Depends very much on region. Thailand looks very different from Bangkok as opposed to, say, Isan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 02, 2013, 09:48:09 AM
Can't find the Carnegie report so can't really comment.
However, the premise that China is narrowing the gap in carrier capability is questionable.  China's carrier program is very embryonic at this point - more like zygotic.  the amount of work that needs to be done in terms of developing effective cadres of pilots, deck crews, and the massive tail of logistical support is enormous.  Not to mention there is currently zero capability to construct or source modern carriers, which is why their sole carrier now is a refurbished 25 year old ex-Soviet wreck.  And it's not like the US is standing still on modernizing and improving its own carrier capability.
More generally, China's ability to project power cannot be measured by a simple count of front-line combat planes, subs, ships, and modern weapon systems.  China's military capabilities away from home base are hamstrung by its weak supply and logistic system and that is going to take decades to improve. 

That said, their capability for home defense and denial of access to their local area is already impressive and is likely to continue to improve.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 06, 2013, 06:53:11 AM
The official Communist party newspaper, Renmin Ribao (People's Daily),  is building a new headquarters for themselves. Err . . .

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.derstandard.at%2F2013%2F05%2F06%2F1363876799268-beijing1.jpg&hash=8be9b84534a29e1e857b05098d5f9d949e1c1153)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.derstandard.at%2F2013%2F05%2F06%2F1363876799176-beijing2.jpg&hash=f9e9be855c00a903becbd0c54ed35d4a092c1983)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 06, 2013, 09:56:46 AM
Are you trying to imply the architect made a cock-up?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 06, 2013, 10:21:10 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 06, 2013, 09:56:46 AM
Are you trying to imply the architect made a cock-up?

:yes: And the board that okayed it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 23, 2013, 12:54:24 AM
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000247708

QuoteWith labor costs surging in China and domestic production recovering competitiveness thanks to the weaker yen, many Japanese manufacturers have been prompted to review their production in China.

Japan Display Inc., the world's largest maker of small and midsize liquid crystal displays, reportedly plans to relocate part of its production in China to Japan. Other domestic manufacturing companies are likely to follow suit, while some firms have already moved production bases to Southeast Asia and other regions.

Japan Display was established in April 2012 after integrating the LCD units of Toshiba Corp., Sony Corp. and Hitachi Ltd. By taking advantage of the three companies' technologies, Japan Display has focused on development and production of smartphone-related products.
Slide 1 of 1

    The Yomiuri Shimbun

As demand for LCD panels that are high-quality, thin, light and low on power consumption has been strong, Japan Display apparently believes its products can distinguish themselves from products of Chinese and Taiwan makers, even if part of its production is shifted to Japan.

Japanese manufacturers have maintained domestic production of some of their cutting-edge products, including Toshiba's recording semiconductors and Sony's image sensors, which boast top global market shares.

Also propelled by the recent weakening of the yen, Toshiba plans to invest an additional 170 billion yen in a semiconductor factory and related businesses this fiscal year.

Firms seek cheaper labor

According to the Japan External Trade Organization, local labor costs of Japanese companies operating in China rose by about 60 percent over the past three years. The firms that have made inroads into China to seek cheaper labor have found it necessary to review their current operations in the country.

In fiscal 2011, Funai Electric Co. lowered its production ratio in China that previously accounted for 90 percent of its total output. It intends to relocate its production of small and midsize televisions to a Thai factory, which will increase output capacity this summer. The company also has acquired a plot of land in the Philippines, to which it will consider shifting a printer production base from China.

Bandai Co. currently produces 96 percent of its toy products in China, but plans to reduce its China production to 90 percent by operating a new factory in the Philippines in July.

In the wake of soaring labor costs in China, Ito-Yokado Co. has also reduced its dependence in China for production of its private-brand clothing items sold in Japan. In fiscal 2011, 80 percent of its clothing products were manufactured in China, but this proportion was cut to 60 percent last fiscal year. In fiscal 2013, the company plans to lower the figure to 30 percent while increasing output in Myanmar and Indonesia, which have improved sewing technology.

The Chinese government plans to raise the national minimum wage by more than 13 percent annually while boosting allowances when employees leave the company.

Such steps are aimed at narrowing China's income gap and expanding domestic consumption. But this also means that foreign companies are likely to face rising production costs in China.

Japanese-affiliated companies have to be aware of other "China risks" such as the stronger Chinese yuan and anti-Japan riots since last autumn. To avert such risks, some companies have shifted production lines to other countries in Southeast Asia and other regions with cheaper labor.

Tests for smaller firms

Business managers' judgment in tackling risks in China will likely be put to the test.

Rising labor costs are a serious concern for small and midsize companies that lack the management vitality of larger firms.

Akihiro Maekawa, director of Cast Consulting Co., a firm that provides management assistance services to small businesses operating in Shenzhen and other areas in China, said more and more business managers are thinking of withdrawing from the country.

Tokyo-based yukata maker Tokyoin Co. is spending 1.2 million dollars to build a sewing factory in Myanmar. Up until around 2007, the firm had manufactured all of its yukata in Dalian, China. However, rising labor costs and difficulties securing workers made it hard for the company to continue its business.

The company plans to manufacture 70 percent of its products at the new Myanmar factory. Tokyoin President Yuichi Momose said he had no choice but to continuously seek a cheap labor manufacturing base.

Takamoto Suzuki, a senior economist at Marubeni Research Institute, said labor costs in China are expected to continue rising. "It's possible that labor-intensive industries, such as fashion and electronics, will keep relocating their manufacturing bases," Suzuki said.

Despite this, China is still an enormous market. Japanese businesses have already made large investments in the country, which is why most are opting to stay in China even after the recent wave of anti-Japanese sentiment there.

China=teh doomed
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Lettow77 on May 23, 2013, 02:09:41 AM
On a related note, this dampened the exuberance the Japanese stock market has been riding on a wave of lately.

China pls
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on May 23, 2013, 02:42:05 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on May 02, 2013, 06:55:51 AM
New York Times headline: China Is Nearing U.S.'s Military Power in Region

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/02/world/asia/china-likely-to-challenge-us-supremacy-in-east-asia-report-says.html
It doesn't seem to take into account the military capabilities of our allies in the region either.

^^^ Wonder why India isn't on that pay chart?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 23, 2013, 03:43:23 AM
Quote from: Lettow77 on May 23, 2013, 02:09:41 AM
On a related note, this dampened the exuberance the Japanese stock market has been riding on a wave of lately.

China pls
Long time no see. How did the Jet app go?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 29, 2013, 05:51:52 PM
China now protects the champagne label, leaving the US as one of the few countries in the world that permits counterfeit bubblers to use the name.

The other principal remaining holdouts are those great bastions of free market principles: Russia, Argentina and Vietnam.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 29, 2013, 06:55:20 PM
Mei Guo Guo apparently has about US$ 1 Billion in her bank account.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on May 29, 2013, 06:57:11 PM
Smithfield hams to soon contain lead. Thanks China!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on May 29, 2013, 07:02:37 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 29, 2013, 05:51:52 PM
China now protects the champagne label, leaving the US as one of the few countries in the world that permits counterfeit bubblers to use the name.

The other principal remaining holdouts are those great bastions of free market principles: Russia, Argentina and Vietnam.
:rolleyes:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on May 29, 2013, 08:03:11 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 29, 2013, 05:51:52 PM
China now protects the champagne label, leaving the US as one of the few countries in the world that permits counterfeit bubblers to use the name.

The other principal remaining holdouts are those great bastions of free market principles: Russia, Argentina and Vietnam.
As far as I'm concerned, this is what I think of when I think of champagne.  :mad:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.21food.com%2F20110609%2Fproduct%2F1305758255968.jpg&hash=ac3a202468184b4d394d82330e3c89a93dd13629)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on May 29, 2013, 08:38:38 PM
Quote from: Tyr on May 23, 2013, 12:54:24 AM
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000247708

QuoteWith labor costs surging in China and domestic production recovering competitiveness thanks to the weaker yen, many Japanese manufacturers have been prompted to review their production in China.

Japan Display Inc., the world's largest maker of small and midsize liquid crystal displays, reportedly plans to relocate part of its production in China to Japan. Other domestic manufacturing companies are likely to follow suit, while some firms have already moved production bases to Southeast Asia and other regions.

Japan Display was established in April 2012 after integrating the LCD units of Toshiba Corp., Sony Corp. and Hitachi Ltd. By taking advantage of the three companies' technologies, Japan Display has focused on development and production of smartphone-related products.
Slide 1 of 1

    The Yomiuri Shimbun

As demand for LCD panels that are high-quality, thin, light and low on power consumption has been strong, Japan Display apparently believes its products can distinguish themselves from products of Chinese and Taiwan makers, even if part of its production is shifted to Japan.

Japanese manufacturers have maintained domestic production of some of their cutting-edge products, including Toshiba's recording semiconductors and Sony's image sensors, which boast top global market shares.

Also propelled by the recent weakening of the yen, Toshiba plans to invest an additional 170 billion yen in a semiconductor factory and related businesses this fiscal year.

Firms seek cheaper labor

According to the Japan External Trade Organization, local labor costs of Japanese companies operating in China rose by about 60 percent over the past three years. The firms that have made inroads into China to seek cheaper labor have found it necessary to review their current operations in the country.

In fiscal 2011, Funai Electric Co. lowered its production ratio in China that previously accounted for 90 percent of its total output. It intends to relocate its production of small and midsize televisions to a Thai factory, which will increase output capacity this summer. The company also has acquired a plot of land in the Philippines, to which it will consider shifting a printer production base from China.

Bandai Co. currently produces 96 percent of its toy products in China, but plans to reduce its China production to 90 percent by operating a new factory in the Philippines in July.

In the wake of soaring labor costs in China, Ito-Yokado Co. has also reduced its dependence in China for production of its private-brand clothing items sold in Japan. In fiscal 2011, 80 percent of its clothing products were manufactured in China, but this proportion was cut to 60 percent last fiscal year. In fiscal 2013, the company plans to lower the figure to 30 percent while increasing output in Myanmar and Indonesia, which have improved sewing technology.

The Chinese government plans to raise the national minimum wage by more than 13 percent annually while boosting allowances when employees leave the company.

Such steps are aimed at narrowing China's income gap and expanding domestic consumption. But this also means that foreign companies are likely to face rising production costs in China.

Japanese-affiliated companies have to be aware of other "China risks" such as the stronger Chinese yuan and anti-Japan riots since last autumn. To avert such risks, some companies have shifted production lines to other countries in Southeast Asia and other regions with cheaper labor.

Tests for smaller firms

Business managers' judgment in tackling risks in China will likely be put to the test.

Rising labor costs are a serious concern for small and midsize companies that lack the management vitality of larger firms.

Akihiro Maekawa, director of Cast Consulting Co., a firm that provides management assistance services to small businesses operating in Shenzhen and other areas in China, said more and more business managers are thinking of withdrawing from the country.

Tokyo-based yukata maker Tokyoin Co. is spending 1.2 million dollars to build a sewing factory in Myanmar. Up until around 2007, the firm had manufactured all of its yukata in Dalian, China. However, rising labor costs and difficulties securing workers made it hard for the company to continue its business.

The company plans to manufacture 70 percent of its products at the new Myanmar factory. Tokyoin President Yuichi Momose said he had no choice but to continuously seek a cheap labor manufacturing base.

Takamoto Suzuki, a senior economist at Marubeni Research Institute, said labor costs in China are expected to continue rising. "It's possible that labor-intensive industries, such as fashion and electronics, will keep relocating their manufacturing bases," Suzuki said.

Despite this, China is still an enormous market. Japanese businesses have already made large investments in the country, which is why most are opting to stay in China even after the recent wave of anti-Japanese sentiment there.

China=teh doomed

Why is China doomed?  If anything, I see this as great news for China.  Who wants to build iphones forever?  You want to eventually invent gadgets and the next generation of toxic financial instruments.  China is simply going down the same path that Japan went through in the last few decades. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2013, 08:45:48 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 29, 2013, 08:38:38 PM
Why is China doomed?  If anything, I see this as great news for China.  Who wants to build iphones forever?  You want to eventually invent gadgets and the next generation of toxic financial instruments.  China is simply going down the same path that Japan went through in the last few decades.

Japan didn't rip off all their technological development;  they maintained and honed the discipline it took to get it.

China has neither the internal cultural controls nor the history of flexibility and elasticity necessary to survive the same bumps Japan has encountered and managed to stay afloat when it hits them.

You never went to elementary school here, but "Chinese Cuts" never work out in the long run.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 29, 2013, 09:05:22 PM
Yeah, Japan didn't just stop making crap and move onto making the world's best teeny tiny radios. They had a long transition period of experimenting and gradually gaining acceptance as a country capable of making quality stuff.
With China...they're not really showing many signs of doing this yet, they're still sticking firmly to the bottom of the market. What is worse is that most of this is producing crap for other countries, not producing their own labelled crap as Japan did. Means they don't build up a name for themselves, dont' get so much experience with the difficult parts of the manufacturing process and it is a lot easier for the rug to be pulled out from under them.
Not to mention that there simply isn't the same world market for China that there was for Japan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on May 29, 2013, 09:08:52 PM
I want China to produce more female babies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on May 29, 2013, 11:40:17 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 29, 2013, 08:45:48 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 29, 2013, 08:38:38 PM
Why is China doomed?  If anything, I see this as great news for China.  Who wants to build iphones forever?  You want to eventually invent gadgets and the next generation of toxic financial instruments.  China is simply going down the same path that Japan went through in the last few decades.

Japan didn't rip off all their technological development;  they maintained and honed the discipline it took to get it.

China has neither the internal cultural controls nor the history of flexibility and elasticity necessary to survive the same bumps Japan has encountered and managed to stay afloat when it hits them.

You never went to elementary school here, but "Chinese Cuts" never work out in the long run.
:yes: China always had it easy throughout history.  Let's see how they handle tough times.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on May 30, 2013, 12:05:43 AM
Quote from: DGuller on May 29, 2013, 08:03:11 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 29, 2013, 05:51:52 PM
China now protects the champagne label, leaving the US as one of the few countries in the world that permits counterfeit bubblers to use the name.

The other principal remaining holdouts are those great bastions of free market principles: Russia, Argentina and Vietnam.
As far as I'm concerned, this is what I think of when I think of champagne.  :mad:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.21food.com%2F20110609%2Fproduct%2F1305758255968.jpg&hash=ac3a202468184b4d394d82330e3c89a93dd13629)

Why does everything from your country glow brightly green?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 30, 2013, 09:44:38 AM
Quote from: DGuller on May 29, 2013, 08:03:11 PM
As far as I'm concerned, this is what I think of when I think of champagne.  :mad:

I assume the color is due to Chernobyl fallout.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 30, 2013, 09:48:26 AM
Quote from: Tyr on May 29, 2013, 09:05:22 PM
With China...they're not really showing many signs of doing this yet, they're still sticking firmly to the bottom of the market.

Quite untrue.  To the contrary, China has been unusually quick in moving up the value chain and improving quality and productivity.  In fact, China's domestic macro-economic distortions are due in significant part to the fact that the productivity of its workforce is way ahead of wage compensation.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on May 30, 2013, 09:59:13 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 29, 2013, 05:51:52 PM
China now protects the champagne label, leaving the US as one of the few countries in the world that permits counterfeit bubblers to use the name.

The other principal remaining holdouts are those great bastions of free market principles: Russia, Argentina and Vietnam.

:frog:  :D

Guess that's why an Argentine talked of drinking "champagne" when in fact it was sweet "sekt" bubbler stuff as it was in Germany. :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 30, 2013, 10:24:15 AM
When I see articles about business leaving China for Myanmar, or the Phillippines, I think more about what that means in the long run than just China.

The trends here are rather obvious, aren't they?

The developed world moves production to the un or under developed world, where they can find cheap labor. By doing so, they pour huge amount sof cash into those underdeveloped parts of the world, and gosh, whoulda thunk it, they start becoming not so under dewveloped anymore. Which means their labor costs rise, and the standard of living goes up, and a "middle class" develops that starts buying all that crap they used to only make for others.

At that point, it isn't really all that much cheaper anymore, and business either pull production back home (to avoid the overseas production costs/friction) or find another underdeveloped nation to relaocate to.

The only problem is that there are a finite number of suitable underdeveloped nations...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 30, 2013, 10:33:14 AM
Quote from: Berkut on May 30, 2013, 10:24:15 AM
When I see articles about business leaving China for Myanmar, or the Phillippines, I think more about what that means in the long run than just China.

The trends here are rather obvious, aren't they?

The developed world moves production to the un or under developed world, where they can find cheap labor. By doing so, they pour huge amount sof cash into those underdeveloped parts of the world, and gosh, whoulda thunk it, they start becoming not so under dewveloped anymore. Which means their labor costs rise, and the standard of living goes up, and a "middle class" develops that starts buying all that crap they used to only make for others.

At that point, it isn't really all that much cheaper anymore, and business either pull production back home (to avoid the overseas production costs/friction) or find another underdeveloped nation to relaocate to.

The only problem is that there are a finite number of suitable underdeveloped nations...

Yeah it is all working...exactly the same as us free trader types thought it would!  Theory and reality coming together in such a nice way...and faster than I thought.

I do not see that last part as a problem but a feature.  It encourages poor countries to get their crap together and then they will be rewarded and quickly so.  And if they don't...well wages will have to go up again.  Shareholder value will suffer.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 03, 2013, 06:08:13 AM
Hey, Xiacob or Mono...what's Cantonese for "you're welcome"?

QuoteChina Is Reaping Biggest Benefits of Iraq Oil Boom
By TIM ARANGO and CLIFFORD KRAUSS

BAGHDAD — Since the American-led invasion of 2003, Iraq has become one of the world's top oil producers, and China is now its biggest customer.

China already buys nearly half the oil that Iraq produces, nearly 1.5 million barrels a day, and is angling for an even bigger share, bidding for a stake now owned by Exxon Mobil in one of Iraq's largest oil fields.

"The Chinese are the biggest beneficiary of this post-Saddam oil boom in Iraq," said Denise Natali, a Middle East expert at the National Defense University in Washington. "They need energy, and they want to get into the market."

Before the invasion, Iraq's oil industry was sputtering, largely walled off from world markets by international sanctions against the government of Saddam Hussein, so his overthrow always carried the promise of renewed access to the country's immense reserves. Chinese state-owned companies seized the opportunity, pouring more than $2 billion a year and hundreds of workers into Iraq, and just as important, showing a willingness to play by the new Iraqi government's rules and to accept lower profits to win contracts.

"We lost out," said Michael Makovsky, a former Defense Department official in the Bush administration who worked on Iraq oil policy. "The Chinese had nothing to do with the war, but from an economic standpoint they are benefiting from it, and our Fifth Fleet and air forces are helping to assure their supply."

The depth of China's commitment here is evident in details large and small.

In the desert near the Iranian border, China recently built its own airport to ferry workers to Iraq's southern oil fields, and there are plans to begin direct flights from Beijing and Shanghai to Baghdad soon. In fancy hotels in the port city of Basra, Chinese executives impress their hosts not just by speaking Arabic, but Iraqi-accented Arabic.

Notably, what the Chinese are not doing is complaining. Unlike the executives of Western oil giants like Exxon Mobil, the Chinese happily accept the strict terms of Iraq's oil contracts, which yield only minimal profits. China is more interested in energy to fuel its economy than profits to enrich its oil giants.

Chinese companies do not have to answer to shareholders, pay dividends or even generate profits. They are tools of Beijing's foreign policy of securing a supply of energy for its increasingly prosperous and energy hungry population. "We don't have any problems with them," said Abdul Mahdi al-Meedi, an Iraqi Oil Ministry official who handles contracts with foreign oil companies. "They are very cooperative. There's a big difference, the Chinese companies are state companies, while Exxon or BP or Shell are different."


China is now making aggressive moves to expand its role, as Iraq is increasingly at odds with oil companies that have cut separate deals with Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdish region. The Kurds offer more generous terms than the central government, but Iraq and the United States consider such deals illegal.

Late last year, the China National Petroleum Corporation bid for a 60 percent stake in the lucrative West Qurna I oil field, a stake that Exxon Mobil may be forced to divest because of its oil interests in Iraqi Kurdistan. Exxon Mobil, however, has so far resisted pressure to sell, and in March the Chinese company said it would be interested in forming a partnership with the American company for the oil field.

If the United States invasion and occupation of Iraq ended up benefiting China, American energy experts say the unforeseen turn of events is not necessarily bad for United States interests. The increased Iraqi production, much of it pumped by Chinese workers, has also shielded the world economy from a spike in oil prices resulting from Western sanctions on Iranian oil exports. And with the boom in American domestic oil production in new shale fields surpassing all expectations over the last four years, dependence on Middle Eastern oil has declined, making access to the Iraqi fields less vital for the United States.

At the same time, China's interest in Iraq could also help stabilize the country as it faces a growing sectarian conflict.

"Our interest is the oil gets produced and Iraq makes money, so this is a big plus," said David Goldwyn, who was the State Department coordinator for international energy affairs in the first Obama administration. "Geopolitically it develops close links between China and Iraq, although China did not get into it for the politics. Now that they are there, they have a great stake in assuring the continuity of the regime that facilitates their investment."

For China, Iraq is one of several countries it increasingly relies on to keep its growing economy running. China recently became the world's biggest oil importer, and with its consumption growing, it is investing heavily in oil and gas fields around the world — $12 billion worth in 2011, according to the United States Energy Department. Over 50 percent of its oil imports come from the Middle East, even as imports from Iran have been reduced in recent years. "It's pretty simple," said Kevin Jianjun Tu, an expert on Chinese energy policies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "China needs more energy and needs to diversify its sources."

The Iraqi government needs the investment, and oil remains at the heart of its political and economic future. Currently OPEC's second largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, the Iraqi government depends on oil revenues to finance its military and social programs. Iraq estimates that its oil fields, pipelines and refineries need $30 billion in annual investments to reach production targets that will make it one of the world's premier energy powers for decades to come.

The revenue that investment would produce could either help pave over tensions between Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis, or worsen those tensions as competing camps fight over the spoils.

But the kind of investment that is necessary has required contracting the services of foreign oil companies that are not always enthusiastic about Iraq's nationalistic, tightfisted terms or the unstable security situation that can put employees in danger. Some like Statoil of Norway have left or curtailed their operations.

But the Chinese, frequently as partners with other European companies like BP and Turkish Petroleum, have filled the vacuum. And they have been happy to focus on oil without interfering in other local issues. "The Chinese are very simple people," said an Iraqi Oil Ministry official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not have permission to speak to the news media. "They are practical people. They don't have anything to do with politics or religion. They just work and eat and sleep."

International energy experts said the Chinese had a competitive advantage over Western oil companies working in Iraq. They noted that the Chinese, unlike many Western oil companies, are willing to accept service contracts at a very low per barrel oil fee without the promise of rights to future reserves. While private oil companies need to list oil reserves on their books to satisfy investors demanding growth, the Chinese do not have to answer to shareholders.

The Chinese companies and their workers also win high marks for their technical expertise, as long as they are not working in complicated oil fields, like those in deep waters. "They offer a lot of capital and a willingness to get in quickly and with a high appetite for risk," said Badhr Jafar, president of Crescent Petroleum, an independent oil and gas company based in the United Arab Emirates and a big gas producer in Iraq. He said the Chinese were vital to Iraq's efforts to expand oil production, adding, "They don't have to go through hoops to get people on the ground and working."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on June 03, 2013, 07:24:40 AM
Man, 100+ dead in a poultry plant explosion. I didn't know lead was explosive.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 03, 2013, 08:58:09 AM
@CdM - dunno about Cantones, but in Mandarin it would be: buxie (不谢)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 03, 2013, 03:48:28 PM
Well, tell your handlers contacts in Beijing, "You're very buxie".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 03, 2013, 03:53:32 PM
Will do.

Should I ask them if they have any openings matching your skill set?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 03, 2013, 09:55:39 PM
The secrets I could deliver.

They should send an almond-eyed honey to seduce them out of me.  Two, in fact.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on June 04, 2013, 05:30:24 AM
Instead, they send Margaret Cho
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 04, 2013, 06:41:30 AM
And Mono's iPod.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on June 04, 2013, 07:03:54 AM
A aPod. MUCH BETTER!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 04, 2013, 07:10:27 AM
An Appel aPod! I love it!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 04, 2013, 11:53:04 AM
May 35th Anniversary:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fstatic%2Fmt%2Fassets%2Fchina%2Ftiananmanlegosmall.jpg&hash=33fdfa36d10fe8ca6435a5d2a2a1b522da69350d)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fstatic%2Fmt%2Fassets%2Fchina%2Ftiananmenduckbig.jpg&hash=f9bfbc09b6f161f691c6514195d05e2a78b0bb6f)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fstatic%2Fmt%2Fassets%2Fchina%2Ftiananmancowbig.jpg&hash=6c2ce7c2bb206e8768c6b68af51b0339849c0609)

Article in the Atlantic here: http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/06/tiananmen-square-how-chinese-bloggers-play-cat-and-mouse-with-censors/276523/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/06/tiananmen-square-how-chinese-bloggers-play-cat-and-mouse-with-censors/276523/)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on June 04, 2013, 04:17:55 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-F7QQla1ErJU%2FTnai7UTfVGI%2FAAAAAAAAFDE%2FOjU6beA60CM%2Fs1600%2Ftiananmensquared.jpg&hash=07aa8fa974359877f651a869579ca6fe92c0c66e)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 04, 2013, 05:43:11 PM
Shit, now I've got to find my old "Summer of Mono" photoshop.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 04, 2013, 05:45:18 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 04, 2013, 11:53:04 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fstatic%2Fmt%2Fassets%2Fchina%2Ftiananmenduckbig.jpg&hash=f9bfbc09b6f161f691c6514195d05e2a78b0bb6f)

I think this one may have been shopped.  The shadows don't match the ducks.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on June 04, 2013, 05:48:58 PM
 :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 04, 2013, 06:04:01 PM
Banning emoticons?   :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on June 04, 2013, 06:52:47 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 04, 2013, 06:04:01 PM
Banning emoticons?   :lol:
:huh: :blink:  :wacko:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 05, 2013, 09:05:04 AM
QuoteU.S.-China Meeting's Aim: Personal Diplomacy
By MARK LANDLER and JACKIE CALMES

WASHINGTON — When Tom Donilon, President Obama's national security adviser, met with President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week to discuss his coming visit to the United States, China's newly minted leader told him he wanted a conversation with Mr. Obama that did not involve diplomatic talking points. As if to underscore the message, he ignored the notes sitting in front of him.

When Mr. Xi arrives on Friday for his first visit as president, Mr. Obama will make his own symbolic gesture, welcoming him amid the olive trees and artificial lakes of a 200-acre California estate.

In more than six hours of meetings over two days, with ample time for dinner and a sunset stroll beneath the San Jacinto Mountains, administration officials hope Mr. Obama and Mr. Xi, who met for the first time last year in Washington, will really get to know each other, while exchanging ideas about how best to manage a complex, sometimes combustible relationship between the world's two biggest economies.

It is an enormous bet on the power of personal diplomacy, in a setting carefully chosen to nurture a high-level friendship.

Rarely, if ever, have American and Chinese leaders had so much unscripted time together. Jiang Zemin met with George W. Bush at Mr. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Tex., in 2002, but it was shortly before Mr. Jiang stepped down. And after talking for an hour, the two men jumped into a truck for a tour of the ranch, ate barbecue and held a news conference.

This time the setting will not be a ranch but Sunnylands, the desert retreat in Rancho Mirage built by Walter H. Annenberg, where Ronald Reagan celebrated New Year's Eve and Richard M. Nixon went to lick his wounds after Watergate.

For Mr. Obama, who is keenly interested in Asia but has little emotional connection to China, it is a chance to escape the stifling protocol of state visits and establish a rapport with Mr. Xi that the president never enjoyed with his predecessor, Hu Jintao.

Mr. Obama, his aides say, was frustrated that he rarely broke through in a dozen stilted encounters with Mr. Hu, who would respond with bland talking points, even when, for example, the president implored him to do more to curb the nuclear threat from North Korea.

For Mr. Xi, a tough-minded party veteran whose no-nonsense style recalls Deng Xiaoping, it is a chance to set the tone for his most important diplomatic relationship at the start of what is expected to be a decade atop the Chinese power structure.

"Their leadership was very open to this kind of encounter," Mr. Donilon said. "They sense that this is an important moment in the relationship."

The choice of Sunnylands, about 120 miles southeast of Los Angeles, with its history as a place where Republican presidents and their Hollywood friends went to unwind, was calculated to give this diplomatic first date the best chance of succeeding. Even the estate's Republican lineage may play a part, at least metaphorically.

"Sunnylands is a West Coast monument to Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan," said Orville Schell, the Arthur Ross Director of the Center for U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society. "The last time the U.S.-China relationship broke through was Nixon and Kissinger."

Mr. Xi has on a number of occasions signaled his desire to break from normal protocol. At a meeting with Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, he also did without talking points, prompting Mr. Lew to set aside his own notes.

Most significant, Mr. Xi, while vice president, spent about 20 hours with Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in reciprocal visits. In those encounters, administration officials said, Mr. Xi expressed a keen interest in how China figured in American politics.

Mr. Biden, for his part, emphasized that the militaries of the two countries needed to communicate better, particularly given that China's growing military might is putting its warships and planes closer to American ones. The substantive nature of the meetings helped persuade the White House that it was worth putting Mr. Xi and Mr. Obama together sooner than the diplomatic calendar would have dictated.

Mr. Xi, analysts in Beijing said, has two very different goals: to nurture trust, yet project self-confidence. He appears genuinely to want a stable and productive relationship, but there is also widespread wariness of American intentions, said Sun Zhe, director of the Center for U.S.-China Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

"China hopes that this visit will help to build personal ties and friendship between the two leaders so that conflicts in relations can be moderated," Mr. Sun said in an interview. "But expectations cannot be too high; otherwise, they'll be followed by frustration."

Tensions between the United States and China have flared over the Obama administration's so-called strategic pivot to Asia, which some Chinese, particularly in the military, have viewed as an American plot to check China's influence in its region.

"This isn't prewired for success," said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a top China adviser in the Clinton administration now at the Brookings Institution. "There is a sense that the relationship has gotten into trouble. Both sides feel it can no longer be treated in a regularized manner."

Cheng Li, another China expert at Brookings, noted that after a brief honeymoon when Mr. Xi assumed power, he has already sowed suspicion among liberal elites in China with his strong ties to the military and what some see as nationalistic impulses.

Whatever the Sunnylands summit meeting might mean for United States-China relations, it will reset the Annenberg estate's long-established image as a Republican playground, where presidents relaxed with guests who included Frank Sinatra and Queen Elizabeth II.

"This place was created specifically for just this kind of meeting," said Geoffrey Cowan, president of the Annenberg Foundation Trust at Sunnylands. "It's beautiful; it's completely private; it's secure."

David Dreier, a recently retired House Republican leader who now leads an Annenberg commission on Pacific issues, said he told Mr. Obama about the estate at a White House reception in December and added, "One of my priorities is to get you there."

Other officials at the foundation also promoted the estate as a presidential location, so when the Chinese agreed to a meeting outside Washington, the White House director of scheduling, Danielle Crutchfield, raised the idea of holding it there.

Mr. Xi will arrive in California from Mexico after a three-country visit to Latin America, while Mr. Obama was planning to be in California for two Democratic fund-raisers.

There are limits to the coziness. Mr. Xi will not stay on the estate but at a nearby Hyatt hotel — a reflection of Chinese concerns about eavesdropping, according to a person familiar with the planning. Translators will be required, since Mr. Xi is not fluent in English. And while Mr. Xi's wife, Peng Liyuan, is traveling with him, Michelle Obama is not planning to accompany her husband, which will deprive the meeting of a layer of informality.

Still, other Americans who have met Mr. Xi recently expressed some optimism for the Sunnylands summit meeting. George P. Shultz, a secretary of state in the Reagan administration who was part of a small delegation to Beijing that also included Henry A. Kissinger, said the Chinese "are really trying to give us a message that they want to have a constructive, not a confrontational, relationship with us."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on June 05, 2013, 09:44:31 AM
It sounds like they are dating.  Tyr will be outraged.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 05, 2013, 10:45:56 AM
Quote from: Valmy on June 05, 2013, 09:44:31 AM
It sounds like they are dating.  Tyr will be outraged.
:huh:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 05, 2013, 09:56:37 PM
Fareed Zakaria, Islamopologist and overall anti-America-as-Colossus weenie, actually says something rather relevant.

QuoteChina is not the world's other superpower
By Fareed Zakaria, Wednesday, June 5, 7:21 PM

In February 1972, Richard Nixon went to China and restored Sino-U.S. relations that had been broken for 23 years. During that visit, Nixon held a series of critical meetings with China's premier, Zhou Enlai, and they discussed the broad strategic framework that would guide bilateral relations. President Obama's meetings with President Xi Jinping this weekend have the potential to be a similarly historic summit — but with an important caveat.

China has always played a weak hand brilliantly. When Mao Zedong and Zhou met with Nixon and Henry Kissinger, China was in the midst of economic, political and cultural chaos. Its per capita gross domestic product had fallen below that of Uganda and Sierra Leone. Yet Beijing negotiated as if from commanding heights. Today, it has tremendous assets — but it is not the world's other superpower, and we should not treat it as such.

The United States has been accused of having a confused, contradictory foreign policy, as each administration reverses its predecessor. This is often a mischaracterization, never more so than with China policy. Since Nixon and Kissinger opened the door, U.S. foreign policy toward China has been remarkably consistent over 40 years and eight presidents. Washington has sought to integrate China into the world, economically and politically. This policy has been good for the United States, good for the world and extremely good for China.

But many of the forces that pushed the two countries together are waning. For the first two decades of relations, Washington had strategic reasons to align with Beijing and shift the balance of power against the Soviet Union. While China was in its early years of development, it desperately needed access to U.S. capital, technology and political assistance to expand its economy. Today, China is much stronger and is acting in ways — from cyberattacks to its policies in Africa — that are counter to U.S. interests and values. For its part, Washington must respond to the realities of Asia, where its historic allies are nervous about China's rise.

That's why the meetings between Obama and Xi are important. Both countries need to take a clear-eyed look at the relationship and find a new path that could define a cooperative framework for the future, as Nixon and Zhou did in 1972. Both sides should seek to create a broad atmosphere of trust rather than to work through a "to-do" list.

Some Americans want to see these meetings as a "G-2" alliance of sorts between the world's largest economies. That would not serve U.S. interests nor those of broader global stability and integration.

China is the world's second-largest economy and, because of its size, will one day become the largest. (On a per-capita basis, it is a middle-income country, and it might never surpass the United States in that regard.) But power is defined along many dimensions, and by most political, military, strategic and cultural measures, China is a great but not global power. For now, it lacks the intellectual ambition to set the global agenda.

The scholar David Shambaugh, who has always been well-disposed toward China, put it this way in a recent book: "China is, in essence, a very narrow-minded, self-interested, realist state, seeking only to maximize its own national interests and power. It cares little for global governance and enforcing global standards of behavior (except its much-vaunted doctrine of noninterference in the internal affairs of countries). Its economic policies are mercantilist and its diplomacy is passive. China is also a lonely strategic power, with no allies and experiencing distrust and strained relationships with much of the world."

Beijing wants good relations with the United States and a general climate of external stability. That's partly because it faces huge internal challenges. Chinese leaders want to embark on serious reform at home (described as "rectification") and are searching for a way to generate greater legitimacy for the Communist Party, experimenting with both a return to Maoist rhetoric and a revival of nationalism. Beijing wants to rise without creating a powerful anti-Chinese backlash among Asia's other powers.

The United States should seek good and deep relations with China. They would mean a more stable, prosperous and peaceful world. Further integrating China into an open global system would help maintain that system and the open world economy that rests on it. But this can happen only if China recognizes and respects that system and operates from the perspective of a global power and not that of a "narrow-minded" state seeking only to maximize its interests.

In other words, when China starts acting like a superpower, we should treat it like one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on June 05, 2013, 10:09:57 PM
So what's he want us to do?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 05, 2013, 10:34:39 PM
Go back to treating them as a quaint insignificant people, with nothing of value to offer.  Because that worked so well for centuries.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 05, 2013, 11:28:50 PM
I don't understand.  What is the difference between being treated like a superpower, and not being treated like one?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on June 05, 2013, 11:31:17 PM
http://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/tocqueville-in-china (http://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/tocqueville-in-china)

QuoteTocqueville in China

By Rebecca Liao - May 22, 2013

One of the most vibrant intellectual discussions in China this year began with a tweet on Weibo, China's premier micro-blogging service and anointed online town square. Economist Hua Sheng had just met with Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Qishan, China's anti-corruption czar, charged with fixing the country's most important political problem. As Sinologist Joseph Fewsmith reported, Hua breathlessly tweeted after the meeting:

    I went to the sea [海, an apparent abbreviation for 中南海, the seat of Communist power] to see my old leader. He recommended I read Tocqueville's The Old Regime and the French Revolution. He believes that a big country like China that is playing such an important role in the world, whether viewed from the perspective of history or the external environment facing it today, will not modernize all that smoothly. The price the Chinese people have paid is still not enough.

Hua's self-congratulatory reporting on social media would spur the cheapest propaganda campaign the Chinese government has instituted in years—one that is part of a tradition of intellectual suggestion by senior Chinese leaders, usually through sharing current reading lists. Wen Jiabao, China's previous premier, popularized Marcus Aurelius's The Meditations by revealing that he had read it over a hundred times. And since Wang plugged The Old Regime late last year, Tocqueville's tome has been front and center at the bookstore of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, where China's future leaders are trained. The curious and ambitious in China are reading it, too, making it one of the country's best-selling titles in the last few months.

Wang is perceived as a frank, pragmatic, and highly competent and thoughtful leader. He made his name running the Beijing Olympics, dealing with the outbreak of SARS in 2003, and shepherding China's economy in the last administration. It is somewhat surprising, then, that the discussion he engendered about Tocqueville and modern China has been so simple, only producing a couple uncomfortable yet ultimately straightforward takeaways.

The general consensus in China is that the book offers two main historical lessons applicable to the country's tenuous domestic situation. One, the French Revolution burst forth not when France's economy was at a nadir and the central government strong, but when there was relative prosperity and political reform. Two, it is the nature of revolution that those who carry it out become what they most despise once in power. Such aphoristic caveats against both reform and revolution have been repeated for the last few months and treated as novel and significant each time.

Still, reform-minded Chinese can take comfort in the fact that the new treatment of Tocqueville is so misguided as to be useless. Like France, China's path out of feudalism involved the subdivision of land among the peasantry and the general enrichment of the underclass. New economic rights brought additional burdens like taxes, legal obligations, and a more involved civic role, though not necessarily a sense of civic duty. Political dysfunction stemmed from the monetization of government offices. (In France's case, the government sold administrative positions and entrenched those who held them much more explicitly.) Rural elections were little more than a ritual, but peasants clung to them as an outlet for political action even as they gladly embraced centralization at the upper levels of government. Any democratic gains made by replacing birth with money as the passport to power met with great resistance from the traditional social hierarchy, at the top of which sat an increasingly irrelevant aristocracy.

But the differences are vital. The lack of a meaningful vote in China has pushed people at the grassroots to assert themselves through demonstrations and riots. Not all make international headlines the way an uprising in the village of Wukan did in 2011 because most do not result in the demonstrators' demands being met. Still, compromises between villagers and officials are not uncommon and indicate a healthy demand for Communist Party accountability.

    There is no shortage of influential voices calling for reform. However, the overwhelming tone is not righteous indignation in support of the disadvantaged but practical concern that a vastly unequal society will not survive.

And while the princeling class, comprised of the offspring of powerful Communist Party officials, may seem to be post-revolutionary China's version of pre-revolutionary France's aristocracy, the princelings are more evenly matched, both politically and socially, by a faction of cadres without prestigious family backgrounds. Neither group is immune from the uncertainties or demands of political life, and patronage within the CCP hierarchy can cross faction lines. Though from humble birth, Wang Qishan married into a princeling family and was mentored by his father-in-law. And princeling status by no means assures political survival. Bo Xilai, whose father Bo Yibo is one of the Eight Immortals in Mao Zedong's original circle, was deposed in spectacular fashion last year from his position as Party Secretary of Chongqing and awaits trial.

This is not to say that a spirit of egalitarianism guides China. There is no shortage of influential voices calling for reform. However, the overwhelming tone is not righteous indignation in support of the disadvantaged but practical concern that a vastly unequal society will not survive. Even members of China's liberal intelligentsia feel the need to constantly answer to the country's pragmatic approach to reform. The pre-revolutionary French elite, however, for all their disdain for the lower classes, expressed a passionate sympathy for the peasantry. The revolutionary ideas of French intellectuals gained traction among an already receptive audience. As much as the Chinese Communist Party would like to believe that an unbridled love of liberty is the greatest threat to its existence, the truth is that many of its critics are also trying to protect against chaos.

Perhaps it is thanks to the absence of such liberal fervor that The Old Regime was not disqualified for consumption by the normally hyper-sensitive party cadre—despite the book's affirmation of liberty as the antidote to a rotting post-revolutionary society.

Fascination with Tocqueville's book is curious in other ways as well. In its urgency to find a solution to China's complex problems, the CCP fails to acknowledge that it occupies the same contemporary world and shares the same modern revolutionary tradition as those looking to overhaul or depose it. If reform jitters had the leadership looking for possible sources of revolution within Chinese society, it did not have to look further than China's own past. Why reach for a reference as distant as Tocqueville?

What most distinguishes modern China from Bourbon France is the Communist Party's staunchly conservative and technical approach to reform. Tocqueville marveled at how France's pre-revolutionary government, "which was so overbearing and despotic when all was submission, lost its presence of mind at the first show of resistance, was alarmed by the mildest criticism, and terrified at the least noise." The government was so enthusiastic about reform that, in the thirty to forty years leading up to the French Revolution, it invested heavily in public projects, leading to debts to outside contractors that could not be repaid. Laws were loosely enforced to stave off popular resistance. The government remained functional and absolute at the highest levels, but organizational friction severely hampered the activities of day-to-day administration. Frustration with dysfunction grew into a more serious objection to injustice as government continued to offer moral rationales for its policies.

In contrast, the Chinese government is known for its administrative prowess, given credit for much of China's economic growth. The central authority tightly controls the core economic indicators by managing resources, policies, and, in some cases, national projects with an eye toward pursuing growth efficiently. At the provincial level, there is flexibility and policy experimentation, with successful results sometimes adopted nationally. The bureaucratic infrastructure that runs the country undergoes reorganization when administrative functions need to be streamlined. Most recently, the National People's Congress in March reduced the number of ministries under the State Council, China's cabinet, from twenty-seven to twenty-five. Among other changes, the controversial (and corrupt) Ministry of Railways was split into two to separate oversight of trains and railways from the government's commercial interaction with the industry. According to Xinhua, China's chief news agency, the latest round of restructuring is the seventh in the last three decades.

This is not to say that the bureaucracy is robust: corruption significantly retards government functions on all levels, and the legal and regulatory infrastructure tends to play catch-up with new social and economic developments and demands. Still, the country's leaders are on the whole confident they will make the structural adjustments necessary to remain on track for economic preeminence by 2030.

Such faith comes from a belief in the Chinese governance tradition rather than the institutions themselves. Pan Wei, a leading scholar of Chinese politics with a traditionalist bent, sums up the sentiment nicely, writing that meritocracy is

    [t]he greatest contribution that China has made to the political civilization in the world...Today, both the government and party officials must go through this process of examination and evaluation. As to accountability, this meritocracy is not inferior to electoral democracy.

When naming the virtues of their current system of governance, the Chinese make sure to mention that Voltaire was a great admirer of Imperial China's centralized system of rule by the mandarinate, which shares much in common with the meritocracy that the Communist Party aspires to be. Tocqueville, who also appreciated a well-run authoritarian system, was of a different mind. To him, the Imperial Chinese system

    produced subjects rather than citizens. The consequences extended far beyond the political realm, creating a society characterized by "tranquility without happiness, industry without progress, stability without force, and material order without public morality."

And yet, judging by his nostalgia for an enlightened and civic-minded aristocracy, the Chinese might wonder if Tocqueville would appreciate the current incarnation of what he found unimpressive the first time around. He strongly implies that if an enlightened sovereign had been at the head of state, France's reform program would not have been so thoughtless and therefore disastrous. It is a testament to their self-doubt that the Chinese have not identified themselves as this special case despite their pride in the governing infrastructure they've built over the last thirty years.

The Old Regime, then, is a pep talk more than a warning. Tocqueville's conservative admiration of a learned aristocracy with a healthy sense of noblesse oblige is ultimately a validation of the party's pride in (still maturing) modern Chinese governance—which it considers to be its greatest strength and ticket to holding power in perpetuity. The lesson the Chinese leadership wishes to learn is that as long as they prevent themselves from becoming the bumbling administrators that pushed France toward revolution, all will be well. This message could not be more welcome as the Chinese have watched communism, whose authoritarian regimes looked briefly like the future in the middle part of the last century, cede its revolutionary mantle to liberal democracy.

Still, the worry of collapse persists. China's insecurities are sustained by the feeling that while it lives by the mantra that universal political truths should not exist, the international consensus is that they are in fact inevitable. Mao Zedong never shared Vladimir Lenin's conviction that communism should be spread throughout the world and the proletarian dictatorship hastened. Aside from an initial bout of enthusiasm for foreign revolutionary groups in the 1950s and '60s, China's active support for international communism has been motivated more by anti-imperialist sentiment. Its involvement in the Korean and Vietnam wars were defensive measures against perceived geopolitical encroachment by the United States. Its consistent courtship of rogue and Third World countries reveal just how its leaders perceive its relationship with the international community and, by extension, its vision as a country. In a speech given in 1943 on the dissolution of the Comintern, the international communist organization devoted to facilitating worldwide revolution, Mao stated,

    Revolutionary movements can be neither exported nor imported. Despite the fact that aid was accorded by the Comintern, the birth and development of the Chinese Communist Party resulted from the fact that China herself had a conscious working class...The internal situation in each country and the relations between the different countries are more complicated than they have been in the past and are changing more rapidly.

On a visit to Mexico in 2009, President Xi Jinping echoed the same commitment to non-interference: "Well-fed foreigners have nothing better to do than point fingers at China. But China does not export revolution; we do not export poverty and hunger; and we do not interfere in the affairs of others." A significant part of China's opposition to Western liberalism, then as now, is based as much on ideological disagreement as it is on the presumption of universality.

    A significant part of China's opposition to Western liberalism, then as now, is based as much on ideological disagreement as it is on the presumption of universality.

Nevertheless, more than ever, China's government has a long-term interest in not casting itself as the alternative to the West, lest it acknowledge and validate the momentum of liberal capitalism. Even as China's leadership encourages nationalism, it believes that a foreign policy based on balance of power is far preferable to aggression. It hardly matters that the global elite have turned their gaze eastward as liberal-capitalist democracy suffers from political and economic stagnation. The China Model, a blueprint for successful state-controlled capitalism, has its admirers outside of China. Few Chinese, though, seriously suggest that other countries should try to imitate it.

Not that a similar exercise hasn't been tried recently: former U.S. president Bill Clinton met in 1999 with European leaders for a conference entitled, "Progressive Governance in the 21st Century" to discuss the "Third Way," the middle ground between socialism and capitalism. Slavoj Zizek's lament on the proceedings still rings true today:

    The true message of the notion of the Third Way is that there is no Second Way, no alternative to global capitalism, so that, in a kind of mocking pseudo-Hegelian negation of negation, the Third Way brings us back to the first and only way.

Liberal capitalism looks all the more permanent as it remains impervious to serious reform and rebuffs critics and protest with seemingly little consequence. Doomsday scenarios are merely used to stock the cocktail armory of the Davos Man. The workers in Solidarity, the opposition Green Movement in Iran, the salaried bourgeoisie in Tunisia and Egypt, the jobless in Spain and Greece, the rioters in Bangkok, and the protesters at Tiananmen—among many others—rose up to obtain what they felt they were owed. But with few exceptions, their demands have been assimilated into a cry for more liberal democracy—for a rightful place in the global capitalist order, not socialism.

In the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, a chorus of pundits joked that China may be the one to save capitalism, and they weren't so wrong. China finds itself in a position not unlike that of its geopolitical foes at the advent of widespread communist revolution: questions abound about the country's place in history and foreign values that are anathema to its traditional way of life. China's elites view liberal democracy with the same wariness and disdain that many Western capitalists felt for communism in the latter's heyday. The CCP may be quite happy to replicate the outcome of that rivalry.

A lot of interesting points mentioned here, but IMO the two most interesting are:

1. The fact that desire for reform (over which the elite is deeply divided) springs more from the fear the current unbalanced system can't survive forever, rather than liberal critiques about its inherent inequity.... and that even most critics of the Party recognize its continued importance in protecting China from chaos.
2. The implied lack of intellectual substance and depth that characterizes Chinese society in its study of the liberal arts, in large part because of the temptation to use everything as propaganda (or, unstated, suppress what isn't useful). 

IMO, as per point 2, it's difficult to imagine China becoming a first-rate power until it has something worthwhile to offer in the marketplace of ideas, and that doesn't seem to be anywhere close to happening now.

I also liked de Tocqueville's incredibly prescient characteriziation of "old", Imperial China: 
Quote"tranquility without happiness, industry without progress, stability without force, and material order without public morality."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 17, 2013, 07:13:27 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/16/world/asia/chinas-great-uprooting-moving-250-million-into-cities.html?_r=0


Moving 250 million farmers off their land and into the city. I guess they have to fill the empty ghost cities somehow.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 19, 2013, 04:13:40 PM
China to the US: "That's enough of your dirty trash": http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2013/0619/China-puts-up-a-green-wall-to-US-trash?nav=88-csm_category-storyList
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 20, 2013, 01:21:55 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 19, 2013, 04:13:40 PM
China to the US: "That's enough of your dirty trash": http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2013/0619/China-puts-up-a-green-wall-to-US-trash?nav=88-csm_category-storyList

reads like new business opportunities elsewhere
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 22, 2013, 10:58:49 AM
Bo Xilai's trial has begun.

In something of a departure from standard, the trial is being covered with live updates on Weibo. As well, somewhat unusually, Bo has denied himself guilty of wrongdoing.

BBC covers it here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-23777038
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 22, 2013, 11:00:05 AM
lolz, the bitch flipped.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 22, 2013, 11:40:10 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 22, 2013, 10:58:49 AM
As well, somewhat unusually, Bo has denied himself guilty of wrongdoing.
Is it a crime in China to deny your guilt?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 22, 2013, 12:02:48 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 22, 2013, 11:40:10 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 22, 2013, 10:58:49 AM
As well, somewhat unusually, Bo has denied himself guilty of wrongdoing.
Is it a crime in China to deny your guilt?

Nope, but as I understand it, it's pretty uncommon for many trials (as it apparently is in Japan). Things usually don't go to trial until the outcome is established (whether through evidence, confession, or fiat from higher up).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on October 07, 2013, 10:09:28 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/09/24/smithfield-vote-china-deal/2859551/

Our bacon and ham is no longer safe.  :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 07, 2013, 10:14:54 PM
Quote"We are pleased with the outcome of today's vote," said Larry Pope, chief executive officer of Smithfield. "This is a great transaction for all Smithfield stakeholders, as well as for American farmers and U.S. agriculture.

Lulz, which of these things is not like the others?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2013, 10:17:19 PM
 :huh:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 07, 2013, 10:20:31 PM
 :huh:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2013, 10:21:05 PM
I give up: which of these things is not like the others?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 07, 2013, 10:29:45 PM
Go fuck yourself.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 07, 2013, 10:53:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2013, 10:21:05 PM
I give up: which of these things is not like the others?
Even if you don't agree with him, you know Seedy well enough that you know which one he means. What's the point of asking the question when you already know the answer? 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2013, 11:02:39 PM
You think he was referring to the evil stakeholders, who only care about pulling up their stakes?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 07, 2013, 11:15:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2013, 11:02:39 PM
You think he was referring to the evil stakeholders, who only care about pulling up their stakes?
The odds are 110%
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2013, 11:16:15 PM
Do you understand what stakeholder means Timmy?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on October 08, 2013, 12:06:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2013, 11:16:15 PM
Do you understand what stakeholder means Timmy?

Oh, I know this one.  It's a person who kills vampires.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 08, 2013, 12:22:13 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2013, 11:16:15 PM
Do you understand what stakeholder means Timmy?
I understand what CdM thinks stakeholder means, which means I am able to easily comprehend his statement.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 21, 2013, 09:27:18 AM
QuoteMore validation for Asia Pivoters: China is making huge inroads when it comes to building its arms industry and the U.S. is losing out. Look at this NYT Page Oner today, by Edward Wong and Nicola Clark, reporting from Beijing:

The New York Times
October 20, 2013

China's Arms Industry Makes Global Inroads

By EDWARD WONG and NICOLA CLARK

BEIJING — From the moment Turkey announced plans two years ago to acquire a long-range missile defense system, the multibillion-dollar contract from a key NATO member appeared to be an American company's to lose.

For years, Turkey's military had relied on NATO-supplied Patriot missiles, built by the American companies Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, to defend its skies, and the system was fully compatible with the air-defense platforms operated by other members of the alliance.

There were other contenders for the deal, of course. Rival manufacturers in Russia and Europe made bids. Turkey rejected those — but not in favor of the American companies. Its selection last month of a little-known Chinese defense company, China Precision Machinery Export-Import Corporation, stunned the military-industrial establishment in Washington and Brussels.

The sale was especially unusual because the Chinese missile defense system, known as the HQ-9, would be difficult to integrate with existing NATO equipment. China Precision is also subject to sanctions from the United States for selling technologies that the United States says could help Iran, Syria and North Korea develop unconventional weapons. A State Department spokeswoman said this month that American officials had expressed to the Turkish government "serious concerns" about the deal, which has not yet been signed.

Industry executives and arms-sales analysts say the Chinese probably beat out their more established rivals by significantly undercutting them on price, offering their system at $3 billion. Nonetheless, Turkey's selection of a Chinese state-owned manufacturer is a breakthrough for China, a nation that has set its sights on moving up the value chain in arms technology and establishing itself as a credible competitor in the global weapons market.

"This is a remarkable win for the Chinese arms industry," said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which tracks arms sales and transfers.

In the past, Chinese companies have been known mainly as suppliers of small arms, but that is changing quickly. From drones to frigates to fighter jets, the companies are aggressively pushing foreign sales of high-tech hardware, mostly in the developing world. Russian companies are feeling the greatest pressure, but American and other Western companies are also increasingly running into the Chinese.

"China will be competing with us in many, many domains, and in the high end," said Marwan Lahoud, the head of strategy and marketing at European Aeronautic Defense and Space, Europe's largest aerospace company. "Out of 100 campaigns, that is, the commercial prospects we have, we may have the Chinese in front of us among the competitors in about three or four. They have the full range of capabilities, and they are offering them."

The Stockholm institute released a report this year on global weapons transfers that found the volume of Chinese conventional weapons exports — which included high-end aircraft, missiles, ships and artillery — jumped by 162 percent from 2008 to 2012, compared with the previous five years. Pakistan is the leading customer. The institute now estimates that China is the fifth-largest arms exporter in the world, ahead of Britain. From 2003 to 2007, China ranked eighth.

China's foreign arms sales are also rising fast in dollar terms. According to IHS Jane's, an industry consulting and analysis company, Chinese exports have nearly doubled over the past five years to $2.2 billion, surpassing Canada and Sweden, and making China the world's eighth-largest exporter by value.

The total global arms trade revenue in 2012 was estimated to be $73.5 billion, and the United States had a 39 percent share, according to IHS Jane's.

Xu Guangyu, a retired major general in the People's Liberation Army and director of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, said in an interview that the push by Chinese companies to develop and sell higher-tech arms was "a very normal phenomenon."

"In arms manufacturing, China is trying to increase the quality and reduce price," he said. "We're driven by competition."

Mr. Xu said that besides pricing, Chinese companies had another advantage: they do not "make demands over other governments' status and internal policies." He added: "Our policy of noninterference applies here. Whoever is in the government, whoever has diplomatic status with us, we can talk about arms sales with them."

Chinese officials know that China's encroachment on Western-dominated military markets raises concerns. When asked about the missile-defense sale to Turkey, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said, "China's military exports do no harm to peace, security and stability," and do not "interfere with the internal affairs of recipient countries."

The largest Chinese arms production companies, all state-owned, declined interview requests. Their finances are opaque, though there are some statistics on their Web sites and in the state news media.

The China North Industries Group Corporation, or the Norinco Group, said on its Web site that its profits in 2012 were 9.81 billion renminbi, or about $1.6 billion, a 45 percent increase from 2010. Its revenues in 2012 were 361.6 billion renminbi, or about $59 billion, a 53 percent increase over 2010. Another company, the China South Industries Group Corporation, or CSGC, said on its Web site that it had profits of about $1 billion in 2011, on revenue of about $45 billion, both big increases over 2008.

China's investment has been heaviest in fighter planes — both traditional and stealth versions — as well as in jet engines, an area in which China had until now been dependent on Western and Russian partners, said Guy Anderson, a senior military industry analyst in London with IHS Jane's.

"China has been throwing billions and billions of dollars at research and development," he said. "They also have a strategy of using the gains they get from foreign partnerships to benefit their industrial sector. So they should not have any trouble catching up with their Western competitors over the medium term, and certainly over the long term."

He estimated that China was still a decade away from competing head-to-head with Western nations on the technology itself. But Chinese equipment is priced lower and could become popular in emerging markets, including in African and Latin American nations.

"We are in an era of 'good enough' — the 90 percent solution that will do the job at the best possible price," Mr. Anderson said. "In some cases, that may even mean buying commercial equipment, upgrading it slightly and painting it khaki."

New customers for Chinese equipment include Argentina, which in 2011 signed a deal with the Chinese company Avicopter to build Z-11 light helicopters under license. Mass production for the Argentine military began this year, and 40 helicopters are expected to be built over the next several years. The value of the contract has not been made public.

Companies selling drones, another focal point in the Chinese arms industry, are ubiquitous at arms and aviation shows. At an aviation exposition in Beijing in late September, one Chinese company, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, had on display a model of a CH-4 reconnaissance and combat drone, with four models of missiles next to it.

Though the drone had been "designed for export," one company representative said, there were no foreign buyers yet. The company was still being licensed by the government to sell the aircraft abroad. He added that the drone was not yet up to par with some foreign models, and that the engine was a foreign make, though other parts — including the missiles — had been developed in China.

The Aviation Industry Corporation of China, or AVIC, had on display a model of a Wing Loong, the best-known Chinese drone export, which sells for about $1 million, less than similar American and Israeli drone models. An article in People's Daily said the export certificate for the Wing Loong, or Pterodactyl, was approved in June 2009, and it was first exported in 2011.

At the Paris Air Show in June, Ma Zhiping, president of the China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation, told Global Times, another state-run newspaper, that "quite a few countries" had bought the Wing Loong, which resembles the American-made Predator. Clients were in Africa and Asia, he said.

Two fighter jets made by Chinese companies are being closely watched by industry analysts and foreign companies for their export potential. One is Shenyang Aircraft's J-31, a fighter jet that Chinese officials say has stealth abilities. A People's Daily report last month said that the J-31 was being made by Shenyang, an AVIC subsidiary, mostly for export, citing an interview with Zhang Zhaozhong, a rear admiral in the Chinese Navy. In March, the airplane's chief designer, Sun Cong, told People's Daily that the J-31 could become China's main next-generation carrier-borne fighter jet.

The other jet is the JF-17, a less-sophisticated aircraft that an American official said had been in the works for about two decades in an "on-again, off-again" project. The jet was ostensibly the product of a joint venture between Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China's Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation, also an AVIC subsidiary, but China did the real work, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the secrecy surrounding military projects. So far, Pakistan is the only client, and the official said he believed Pakistan had made a "political decision" to buy it.

China is Pakistan's biggest ally, and each relies on the other to help counter India. Besides the JF-17, the two nations have had official joint production agreements on a frigate, a battle tank and a small aircraft.

A defense official from Japan, a territorial rival of China that monitors its arms trade closely, said Chinese jets still had big shortcomings that could hurt international sales; most notably, China cannot make reliable engines or avionics, he said. The JF-17 uses a Russian engine.

"I believe they can make a few very good engines in the laboratory, but they can't make it in the factory, kind of mass produce it in factories, because of lack of quality control and maybe experience," he said.

He added that Chinese engineers had been trying to develop an engine, the WS-10, a copy of a Russian model, but had been having problems.
[/b]
It is not uncommon for customers to overcome weaknesses in Chinese manufacturing by buying Chinese platforms and outfitting them with better Western equipment. Algeria placed an order last year for three Chinese corvettes, but is outfitting the ships with radar and communications equipment from Thales Nederland, a unit of the Thales Group, based in France. Thailand has been awarding contracts to the Saab Group, based in Sweden, to upgrade Chinese-built frigates, said Ben Moores, a senior analyst at IHS Jane's.

This year, a Chinese company was competing against foreign counterparts, including at least one American company, for a $1 billion Thai contract for naval frigates, but lost to Daewoo of South Korea.

As China moves to catch up with established Western rivals, competing not only on price but also with comparable technology, Hakan Buskhe, chief executive of Saab, said his company and others would be likely to find themselves under pressure to cut their own research and development costs to lower pricing — a trend that could benefit North American and European governments looking to squeeze more ability out of shrinking defense budgets.

"We need to be able to develop more for less," he said.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 21, 2013, 09:42:44 AM
I can't help but think China are following Gilette tactics.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on October 21, 2013, 10:23:19 AM
The Chi-Coms sell more guns than we do? That shit ain't right.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 21, 2013, 11:05:48 AM
I thought the Turkish deal was not a done deal yet.

Also I believe the key selling point for the Chinese proposal was greater scope of local (Turkish) manufacture of components and other "offsets"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 29, 2013, 12:26:11 PM
Trials against prominent anti-corruption campaigners began today.  This follows a sweep against prominent bloggers "Big Ys" who criticized Party corruption as well.
Xi's revivial of self-criticism, 'rectification' and other hoary Maoist nostrums also been well covered.
May be too early to tell, but looks increasingly like Xi is just Bo-lite and the Party leadership is in a reactionary phase, at least at the political/civil society level (there are some signs of willingess to move forward gradually on economic reform).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on October 29, 2013, 07:06:40 PM
Well, the Party has promised "unprecedented" economic reforms at the upcoming Third Plenum. 

Re:  the self-criticism and other Maoist type campaigns, I imagine Xi believes there is simply no other way (other than liberalization of the political system which is not an option) to curb corruption and abuse on the part of Party officials.  Of course, it is not likely to be terribly effective.  The system is utterly rotten, as the only reason to join the Party now is self-enrichment and personal power - and the people know it.  At least this way the Party can show that it is trying to improve the conduct of its officials, with the added hope that, hey, maybe it will actually make a dent in the ethics of its members.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 04, 2013, 11:19:57 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 29, 2013, 07:06:40 PM
Well, the Party has promised "unprecedented" economic reforms at the upcoming Third Plenum. 

Re:  the self-criticism and other Maoist type campaigns, I imagine Xi believes there is simply no other way (other than liberalization of the political system which is not an option) to curb corruption and abuse on the part of Party officials.  Of course, it is not likely to be terribly effective.  The system is utterly rotten, as the only reason to join the Party now is self-enrichment and personal power - and the people know it.  At least this way the Party can show that it is trying to improve the conduct of its officials, with the added hope that, hey, maybe it will actually make a dent in the ethics of its members.

That's the positive view. The more cynical view is simply that he's demonstrating and thus reinforcing his power.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on November 04, 2013, 09:33:29 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 04, 2013, 11:19:57 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on October 29, 2013, 07:06:40 PM
Well, the Party has promised "unprecedented" economic reforms at the upcoming Third Plenum. 

Re:  the self-criticism and other Maoist type campaigns, I imagine Xi believes there is simply no other way (other than liberalization of the political system which is not an option) to curb corruption and abuse on the part of Party officials.  Of course, it is not likely to be terribly effective.  The system is utterly rotten, as the only reason to join the Party now is self-enrichment and personal power - and the people know it.  At least this way the Party can show that it is trying to improve the conduct of its officials, with the added hope that, hey, maybe it will actually make a dent in the ethics of its members.

That's the positive view. The more cynical view is simply that he's demonstrating and thus reinforcing his power.

Yeah, no doubt reinforcement of his authority is part of it too.  Any oligarch who has - arguably to an extent greater than his two predecessors - managed to gain greater control of an organization like the CCP's ruling structure knows a few things about maintenance and building of power...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 04, 2013, 09:40:07 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 21, 2013, 09:42:44 AM
I can't help but think China are following Gilette tactics.
Didn't the Soviets sell more than the US during the Cold War.

The West, especially the US is peddling luxury goods, it's only natural they'll have smaller market share. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 14, 2013, 06:38:54 PM
Good little article in the FT today (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9bfbdad0-4c6d-11e3-923d-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2kfIHPtsv), here is an excerpt I found interesting:

QuoteThe government can tell regional officials that it wants more innovation, more consumption and less investment, but in their annual cadre evaluations about 70 per cent of the points are awarded for raising GDP and avoiding any unrest or embarrassing scandal in their jurisdiction.

Few points are given for stated government priorities such as cleaning up the environment, in part because it is so difficult to measure success

This gets to the limitation of a one-party system, no matter how well staffed and run.  The only way to get feedback on performance is to measure outcomes, and so there is a natural and unavoidable tendency to privilege the priorities that can be most easily measured.

That is not a huge problem in early developmental stages, where the key priority is to lift people out of grinding priority.  A straight GDP target does a reasonably good job.

But China is past that point and transitioning from the need to focus on problems of poverty to problems of affluence.  Things like environmental quality, workplace safety, educational quality and equity, quality provision of health services (symptomized by the fact that doctors in China tend to be poorly paid, relatively low social status, and subject to alarming incidents of violence from disgruntled patients), affordable quality housing, elder care, ample and diverse leisure options, etc.  These are things whose outcomes are not easily trackable by simple quantitative metrics.  They all are strongly correlated with overall quality of life, and hence in a competitive political system there is likely to be strong feedback through the electoral process, and in the proliferation of NGO activity.  But in a political system with a party monopoly and strong constraints on NGOs, the ability to get feedback on these softer outcomes is much more limited.

No country without very substantial mineral wealth has ever been able to cross the developmental threshhold to became an a truly affluent nation while still maintaining a monopolized political authority.  The experience of Taiwan and Korea further suggests that the PRC cannot bank on a cultural exception.   Yet the preliminary indications are that the Xi regime has no intention of building on the limited and mostly localized experimentation with electoral competition by prior post-Mao regimes.  The PRC is about to cross into unprecedented territory.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 15, 2013, 06:45:01 AM
So what do you think will happen?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 15, 2013, 10:10:24 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 15, 2013, 06:45:01 AM
So what do you think will happen?

Don't know.
History suggests the odds are against the CP retaining monopoly power if China is to continue to develop.  Either there will be a guided transition to more pluralistic forms of politics, popular uprising that forces democratization, or China's development will stall.

However.
The CP in China is an unusual organization.  It is highly meritocratic, (internally) competitive, open to outside talent, and pragmatic.  Internally and sometimes publicly, it engages in deep reflection and self-criticism.  The fact that it has been able to achieve such extraordinary developmental results in such a short time while maintaining political stability is an impressive achievement and testament to the Party's adaptability and resoucefulness.  It is true, of course, that the Party in nonetheless prone -- as all one-party collegial structures -- to corruption, cliquism, and over-emphasis on consensus (or the appearance over consensus).  And it is also true that the challenge of suppressing the natural middle class desire for greater political participation and voice will only increase as that middle class grows in number, in affluence and in education.

It looks like the CP's goal is to move to Singapore-like soft authoritarianism where there is some room for popular political expression but one party rule is not seriously challenged.  But that is an unusual institutional arrangement that has arisen in a very particular and peculiar context.  It will be an incredible challenge for a vast, continent spanning nation of over a billion diverse people to follow in the footsteps of a tiny entrepot city-state.

Only time will tell.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on November 15, 2013, 02:53:43 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 08, 2013, 12:06:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 07, 2013, 11:16:15 PM
Do you understand what stakeholder means Timmy?

Oh, I know this one.  It's a person who kills vampires.

Well, I thought it was funny. <_<
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Queequeg on November 16, 2013, 01:38:26 PM
QuoteThe CP in China is an unusual organization.
I was thinking about this.  Isn't it somewhat similar at least to other successful, meritocratic autocracies?  There's a lot of overly enthusiastic comparisons between Prussia and modern China, but I think it's true historically that some autocracies are more efficient than others.  I just read Acemoglu's Why Nations Fail and was ultimately disappointed that he failed to talk about the development of Germany or Meiji Japan.  Also, I'm pissed that he seems to allow people to pronounce his name As-em-og-lu when it should be Aj-em-oogh-lu.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on November 16, 2013, 02:17:47 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on November 16, 2013, 01:38:26 PM
Also, I'm pissed that he seems to allow people to pronounce his name As-em-og-lu when it should be Aj-em-oogh-lu.

Even for you, this is a silly one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 19, 2013, 09:52:46 AM
Quote from: Queequeg on November 16, 2013, 01:38:26 PM
I just read Acemoglu's Why Nations Fail and was ultimately disappointed that he failed to talk about the development of Germany or Meiji Japan.  Also, I'm pissed that he seems to allow people to pronounce his name As-em-og-lu when it should be Aj-em-oogh-lu.

The Prussian regime democratized, and to the extent it held tight to its autocratic elements, that didn't work out so well.  Same can be said for Japan, and for Japan the real developmental breakthrough came after WW2. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on November 19, 2013, 04:11:49 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 19, 2013, 09:52:46 AM
Quote from: Queequeg on November 16, 2013, 01:38:26 PM
I just read Acemoglu's Why Nations Fail and was ultimately disappointed that he failed to talk about the development of Germany or Meiji Japan.  Also, I'm pissed that he seems to allow people to pronounce his name As-em-og-lu when it should be Aj-em-oogh-lu.

The Prussian regime democratized, and to the extent it held tight to its autocratic elements, that didn't work out so well.  Same can be said for Japan, and for Japan the real developmental breakthrough came after WW2.

It could also be said that the real developmental breakthrough for Germany came after the combination of the world wars.  It democratized after WWI but that was quickly swept away by the Nazis.  Prior to WWI the monarchy in Germany still had signficant power.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 21, 2013, 10:31:47 PM
QuoteThird Plenary Session Calls for PLA Reform and Restructuring
Publication: China Brief Volume: 13 Issue: 23
November 20, 2013 10:11 AM Age: 2 days
By: Kevin McCauley

The reforms announced by the recent Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee were headlined by economic pronouncements, but also contained ambitious language on the reform and restructuring of the Chinese military. The details remain sketchy, but according to the communiqué and subsequent press articles areas include adjusting the force mix according to the security requirements of various directions, reducing non-combat institutions and personnel, greater innovation in military theory, strengthening military leadership, building a system to generate greater warfighting capability, reform of military colleges and unit joint training, non-commissioned officer (NCO) system, strengthening military-civilian integration, improving weapons development and procurement, and improving the joint operation command system (Xinhua, November 16; on NCO reform, see China Brief, Volume XI, Issues 18 and 20).

Most of these proposals are not new. Rather, they are extensions of previous rounds of reform aimed at streamlining and modernizing the Chinese military, and political endorsements of reform ideas that have already circulated among military research institutions. Of all the proposals, institutional and cultural changes within the Chinese military could be the most important. A National Defense University (NDU) publication argued that the parochial interests of the services and institutional conflicts within the People's Liberation Army (PLA) are the main constraints to transformational efforts (SOSS, p. 244; 100 Questions,  pp. 196–197 * ).  Overcoming them would require a bold initiative to alter the PLA's command and institutional structure , which currently give the Army a dominant role. Since many of the newly announced reforms have been modernization areas for the past decade, the proposal could indicate that previous efforts have fallen short of the mark, and require adjustments and reinforcements.

The 2003–2005 PLA reductions included non-combat personnel and institutions, streamlining staffs, and some consolidation of military educational institutes. Since then, the PLA has conducted additional adjustments of force structure and reform of professional military education, the NCO corps, as well as researching new operational theories and methods such as integrated joint and system of systems operations. Recent PLA publications have stressed force structure, command, educational, unit training, and institutional changes required to support these emerging theoretical concepts (see China Brief, Volume XII, Issue 8, "System of Systems Operational Capability: Impact on PLA Transformation").

Many of the reform areas announced by the Third Plenary Session have been a focus of discussion in PLA publications during the past few years to support the implementation of joint and system of systems operations capabilities that could significantly increase PLA warfighting capabilities. The development of an integrated command information system and creation of a joint command structure are required to support these theoretical developments. The PLA is slowing developing a modern command information system for joint command (C4ISR), and there have been calls to create theater joint operational commands to replace the current Military Region headquarters, which are dominated by the ground forces. Several different command structures have been proposed, including functional-based and organization-based systems (China Military Online, July 1, November 25; SOSS, pp. 244–254).

PLA publications have also anticipated the Third Plenary Session's call for the need to streamline the force structure, optimize force composition and combined arms capabilities, and reduce non-combat units. However, forces that the PLA views as key to evolving operational theories will continue to expand and modernize, including Army Aviation, special operations, PLA Air Force (PLAAF) offensive forces, psychological warfare, cyber operations, and space operations forces (SOSS, p. 341; 100 Questions,  pp. 177–183).

System of systems and joint operations theory are already changing operational patterns and methods, leading to new educational and training requirements to address the lack of personnel with high-tech and joint operations experience, and train units on integrated information systems. Cultivating skilled personnel, especially joint commanders and staff, is viewed as critical to this effort (SOSS, pp. 342–344). Personnel training recommendations include: reforming academic training program content; increasing job rotation and cross-training efforts; expanding opportunities for joint command personnel to study abroad; and integrating academic institutes with exercises (SOSS, pp. 347–351; 100 Questions, p. 236).

Some of the reform areas coming from the Third Plenary Session are already the focus of improvements and change within the PLA. Equipment modernization, unit training, professional military education, and adjustments to force structure have been ongoing to some degree over the past decade or more, although the quality of the reforms is difficult to gauge. Developing a joint operations command structure, particularly at the theater level might be the most important recommendation, and would be a start to changing institutional and cultural impediments to transformation.

Since details of the renewed efforts have not been announced, it is too soon to say whether inclusion in a political document will lend impetus to reform and restructuring. A South China Morning Post article quoted current and retired PLA officers suggesting that any reform and restructuring efforts will be limited in scope, with small adjustments and improvements, but no sweeping changes (November 16). This assessment accords with this analyst's observations of change within the PLA, which is generally slow, incremental, and steady towards the overall goals, with adjustments through the process as necessary. Ongoing educational reforms within the PLA will only slowly change the culture and promote greater jointness within the PLA. Implementing theater joint operations commands would be a bold gesture that could indicate a serious move to reform the PLA at a more rapid pace.

* Information System-Based System of Systems Operations Study, (Beijing: National Defense University Press, 2012), referenced as SSOS.

Information System-based System of Systems Operational Capability Building in 100 Questions (Beijing: National Defense University Press, Jun 2011), referenced as 100 Questions.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on November 22, 2013, 02:58:33 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 19, 2013, 04:11:49 PM
It could also be said that the real developmental breakthrough for Germany came after the combination of the world wars.

I doubt it.  Germany's relative global economic, cultural and scientific standing in 1914 was far greater than anything post-1945.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on November 22, 2013, 01:53:42 PM
Quote from: Camerus on November 22, 2013, 02:58:33 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 19, 2013, 04:11:49 PM
It could also be said that the real developmental breakthrough for Germany came after the combination of the world wars.

I doubt it.  Germany's relative global economic, cultural and scientific standing in 1914 was far greater than anything post-1945.

Thats nice.  We were talking about the democratization process.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 23, 2013, 10:12:15 PM
QuoteHagel: U.S. 'deeply concerned' with China air defense map

Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said Saturday the United States is "deeply concerned" over China's move to establish an air defense zone over a string of disputed islands in the East China Sea.

"We view this development as a destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region," Hagel said in a statement. "This unilateral action increases the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculations."

The Associated Press reports that the Chinese Defense Ministry issued a map showing the new East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, which encompasses what the Chinese call the Diaoyu islands. The move is seen as an aggressive step against Japan, which bought what it calls the Senkaku islands from private owners in 2012. The islands are uninhabited, but are believed to rest near large underwater oil reserves. Taiwan also claims possession of the islands.

Hagel said the map will have no effect on how the United States conducts military operations in the area, and that concerns are being conveyed to China "through diplomatic and military channels." Hagel also said the United States believes that the Senkaku islands are included as part of Japan in the U.S. Japan Mutual Defense Treaty.

In a separate statement, Secretary of State John Kerry urged China to exercise restraint with foreign aircraft that don't identify themelves inside the air defense zone.

"Escalatory action will only increase tensions in the region and create risks of an incident," Kerry said. "Freedom of overflight and other internationally lawful uses of sea and airspace are essential to prosperity, stability, and security in the Pacific."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on November 23, 2013, 10:16:08 PM
Shove a couple of carriers in there. No lube.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 23, 2013, 10:28:18 PM
From the Home Office in Beijing, British Columbia--

Quote Announcement of the Aircraft Identification Rules for the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone of the P.R.C.
( Source: Xinhua  )         2013-November-23 10:00

BEIJING, Nov. 23 (Xinhua) -- China's Ministry of National Defense issued an announcement of the aircraft identification rules for the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone of the People's Republic of China. Following is the full text:

Announcement of the Aircraft Identification Rules for the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone of the People's Republic of China

Issued by the Ministry of National Defense on November 23

The Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China, in accordance with the Statement by the Government of the People's Republic of China on Establishing the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, now announces the Aircraft Identification Rules for the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone as follows:

First, aircraft flying in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone must abide by these rules.

Second, aircraft flying in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone must provide the following means of identification:

1. Flight plan identification. Aircraft flying in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone should report the flight plans to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China or the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

2. Radio identification. Aircraft flying in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone must maintain the two-way radio communications, and respond in a timely and accurate manner to the identification inquiries from the administrative organ of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone or the unit authorized by the organ.

3. Transponder identification. Aircraft flying in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, if equipped with the secondary radar transponder, should keep the transponder working throughout the entire course.

4. Logo identification. Aircraft flying in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone must clearly mark their nationalities and the logo of their registration identification in accordance with related international treaties.

Third, aircraft flying in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone should follow the instructions of the administrative organ of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone or the unit authorized by the organ. China's armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions.

Fourth, the Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China is the administrative organ of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone.

Fifth, the Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China is responsible for the explanation of these rules.

Sixth, these rules will come into force at 10 a.m. November 23, 2013.

The PRC loves to orchestrate their use of force demonstrations down to the minutae--but it only works if the intended audience plays along. 
And they specifically do it at identified times of opportunity when, say, the USS George Washington just happens to be busy assisting in drying off a shitload of wet Filipinos.  SMELLS LIKE WET FLIP FLOPS

But by all means, send up some hot shot pilots in your shiny new SU-27s to play Maverick and Goose games with the JASDF, and see what the fuck happens.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 23, 2013, 10:51:04 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.xinhuanet.com%2Fenglish%2Fchina%2F2013-11%2F23%2F132911634_11n.jpg&hash=0e190b8643a8e6c7db29a5c5969043be7c135545)

QuoteBEIJING, Nov. 23 (Xinhua) -- The People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force conducted its first air patrol after the establishment of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone.

  Shen Jinke, spokesman for the PLA Air Force, said that two large scouts carried out the patrol mission, with early warning aircraft and fighters providing support and cover.

  "The patrol is in line with international common practices, and the normal flight of international flights will not be affected," Shen said.

  Shen said that the Chinese armed forces are capable of effective control over the zone, and will take measures to deal with air threats to protect the security of the country's airspace.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 24, 2013, 03:06:06 AM
Aka china decides to act like a dick and fly into Japanese airspace
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Viking on November 24, 2013, 05:50:58 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 15, 2013, 10:10:24 AM
However.
The CP in China is an unusual organization.  It is highly meritocratic, (internally) competitive, open to outside talent, and pragmatic.  Internally and sometimes publicly, it engages in deep reflection and self-criticism.  The fact that it has been able to achieve such extraordinary developmental results in such a short time while maintaining political stability is an impressive achievement and testament to the Party's adaptability and resoucefulness.  It is true, of course, that the Party in nonetheless prone -- as all one-party collegial structures -- to corruption, cliquism, and over-emphasis on consensus (or the appearance over consensus).  And it is also true that the challenge of suppressing the natural middle class desire for greater political participation and voice will only increase as that middle class grows in number, in affluence and in education.

Only time will tell.

Time did tell, this is how china has been run for most of the last 2500 years. The mandarins have taken over the kitchen and there is no emperor to shake things up anymore. This is part of the standard chinese cycle or Inspiration-Stagnation-Deterioration-Chaos-Inspiration. Chinese history has been about getting to Stagnation and staying there for as long as possible.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on November 24, 2013, 07:58:32 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 22, 2013, 01:53:42 PM
Quote from: Camerus on November 22, 2013, 02:58:33 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 19, 2013, 04:11:49 PM
It could also be said that the real developmental breakthrough for Germany came after the combination of the world wars.

I doubt it.  Germany's relative global economic, cultural and scientific standing in 1914 was far greater than anything post-1945.

Thats nice.  We were talking about the democratization process.

If you were just talking about that, then you comment was utterly meaningless and obvious. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 24, 2013, 08:44:44 AM
Quote from: Camerus on November 24, 2013, 07:58:32 AM
If you were just talking about that, then you comment was utterly meaningless and obvious.

Obvious, sure, but hardly meaningless.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 25, 2013, 12:35:50 AM
There shall be no peace in our time.

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-sources-the-sino-american-spiral-9088
QuoteThe Sources of the Sino-American Spiral
Share on email Share on twitter Share on facebook Share on digg | More Sharing
Jennifer Lind, Daryl Press

September 18, 2013

The paramount question looming over twenty-first century international politics is: will the United States and China get along?

Most national-security experts express guarded optimism. Although rising powers have historically clashed with their established rivals—adopting revisionist foreign policies to secure more influence, territory, or status—this time, people say, is different. China is a major stakeholder in the current economic order and has no reason to overthrow the very system that has allowed it to grow rich and powerful. The regional maritime disputes that do exist [4]—over small uninhabitable islets—may arouse emotions but do not demonstrate a deep revisionist streak in Beijing. In short, a status quo Washington and a status quo Beijing need not clash.

But pondering the future of East Asia—and great power relations—in terms of whether China will adopt a "status-quo" or "revisionist" grand strategy obscures the real sources of Sino-American conflict. It ignores the range of options available to Beijing, and it pins the future on China's strategic decisions alone.

In reality, the tenor of great-power relations in the coming decades will depend on the interaction of U.S. and Chinese foreign policies—which collide to a far greater degree than is frequently acknowledged. In fact, smooth relations between the United States and China will only be possible in the unlikely event that China adopts an extremely docile national-security strategy, or in the equally unlikely event that the United States cedes its dominant position in the Western Pacific.

CHINESE MENU

Beijing has a broader array of options than the categories "status quo" or "revisionist" imply. What is striking, however, is that all but one of its options put Beijing and Washington on a collision course.

At one extreme, China might continue its rise as an economic powerhouse without substantially enhancing its military might, and without seeking to alter the international order in East Asia or the world.

The logic of this "Rich Nation, Weak Army" strategy is straightforward: China has enjoyed spectacular economic success for four decades while pursuing Deng Xiaoping's strategy of strategic restraint—so why rock the boat now? Foreign-policy restraint has allowed China to focus on its homeland security, prioritize butter over guns, and benefit from the fact that other countries—particularly the United States—have borne the costs of protecting the global order. Continuing this modest strategy would help reassure Beijing's wary neighbors, minimize the odds of conflict with the United States, and allow Beijing to concentrate on China's many domestic challenges (social, demographic, environmental, and institutional).

According to this grand strategy, Beijing would pursue its foreign policy goals through multilateral institutions and posture its military for modest and internationally sanctioned missions such as peacekeeping, disaster relief and antipiracy operations. Its national-security policy and military would be akin to that of Australia, Indonesia or the Philippines. Skeptics might note that this strategy entails, de facto, relying upon the United States to ensure global order and protect China's interests. True; but modern China has never been able to defend its airspace or coastal waters from the major military powers, let alone project military power far from its shores. And yet it has prospered.

Alternatively, Beijing might choose a strategy that reflects its emergence as the major regional power in East Asia. An accommodating version of a regionally focused strategy would seek to establish China as a major East Asian military power—while not changing the region's political and economic order. China would not become expansionist, overturn the existing liberal economic system, or try to expel the U.S. military from the region. Rather, the goals of this strategy are modest and the logic is straightforward: although the current liberal order is good for Beijing—and should continue—it is natural that a great power such as China be able to defend itself and its interests in its own backyard.

In a more assertive version of this regional strategy, China would seek to become not just a major regional power, but also the dominant one. This would not necessarily be accomplished through conquest or coercion; instead, Beijing would simply generate so much economic influence and military might that it would become obvious to the countries of East Asia that there is one natural leader of the region—and it is China. China's growing military capabilities would convince other East Asian countries that the United States could no longer reliably protect them. The goal: to ensure that the countries of East Asia begin to look to Beijing—even with gritted teeth—much as the countries in Eastern Europe look to Moscow, and those in Latin America look to Washington. In the long term, China would establish its own informal Monroe Doctrine: while of course other countries' ships would be welcome to sail through regional sea lanes, foreign military bases operated by regional outsiders would be as unwelcome in East Asia as they are now in the Americas.

To implement either version of this regional strategy, China would build the air and naval forces to control the airspace and waters out to a few hundred miles from the Chinese coast, and to project military power throughout maritime East Asia. Beijing would likely seek allies in the region to host Chinese military forces. The more assertive version would require the same sort of military forces—just more of them.

If Beijing chose to pursue a revisionist regional strategy, it would engage in diplomacy aimed at ousting the United States from the region. It would use various forms of influence and leverage to try to break up America's key alliances. China's diplomacy would seek to convince its neighbors of two things—first, that they can be just as rich, free, safe, and independent within a Chinese-led order as they are within the current order. Second, Beijing would seek to convince them that allying with powerful outsiders against China is a dangerous option—because eventually those outsiders will leave, and when they do, the neighbors will be left next to an unfriendly and regionally dominant Beijing.

Critics might protest that China would not want to topple the economic order that has promoted its rise—but there is nothing about even the more revisionist version of this strategy that would do this. This strategy would promote free trade and investment, and seek peaceful relations among the countries of East Asia, but would do so without the intrusions of a distant great power. Like Russia's dominance in Eastern Europe, and U.S. preeminence throughout North America, this strategy would establish China as the dominant player in East Asia.

A third overarching option for China: look beyond its region to become a global political and military power. China has global interests. It is a leader in international trade, a key player in currency and bond markets, a major target and sender of international investment. Its economy depends on access to distant energy supplies. And Chinese firms and people have spread across the world from Suriname to Iran, from Kazakhstan to Angola. Yet Beijing has limited ability to influence events around the world. In Europe, the members of the EU and the United States (through NATO) make the key decisions; the Persian Gulf is dominated by the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council and their U.S. partners. While China has a stake in all of these regions, it is marginalized. Under a global strategy, China would seek the global influence commensurate with power and global interests.

In a more benign version of a global strategy, China would merely seek greater influence around the world to ensure that its interests are respected. It would not try to remake the Persian Gulf or Latin America, or to push the United States out of any region. Rather, China as a status-quo global power would merely seek a portfolio of interests—which because of economic globalization now span the globe.

China might alternatively adopt a more revisionist global posture. (This is generally what people have in mind when they contemplate China as a "revisionist" great power.) This strategy would seek to reorder international politics and to minimize American power and influence around the world, by luring countries out of the U.S. orbit and by providing an alternative to opponents of the United States (through political support, trade agreements, security guarantees and arms sales). It would give cohesion to countries—such as Iran and Venezuela—that oppose the U.S.-led world order, yet are regionally dispersed and lack the coordination to effectively oppose Washington.

Pursuing either version of a global strategy would require increased defense spending—though perhaps merely maintaining China's current spending as a percentage of GDP, as Beijing's GDP increases—to develop global power-projection capabilities. A revisionist China would likely purvey an ideology or narrative that justified its own global authority and discredited American leadership. Fundamentally this strategy would be about shaping the world in a way that is most conducive to Chinese influence, by building alliances and a network of friends across the globe. Even the revisionist version of a global strategy is not necessarily aggressive or violent; it is about leadership—the same kind of strategy that the United States has followed for the past twenty years.

PEACE THROUGH DOMINANCE

Peaceful U.S.-China relations depend not merely on Chinese decisions, but on how they interact with the American national-security strategy. Like China, the United States has a menu of strategic options; unlike China, however, the United States has a well-established grand strategy, which includes longstanding alliances in East Asia.

Since the end of the Cold War, across four successive administrations, the United States has pursued a strikingly consistent national-security strategy—variously called "hegemony," "global leadership," or "deep engagement." While the specifics fluctuate, the core principles—exercising leadership and promoting stability through a global network of alliances—have remained constant.

To be sure, disagreements about implementation arise regularly. Liberals tend to favor humanitarian intervention, value broad international coalitions, and prefer to work through international institutions. Conservatives are more inclined to use force to prevent the spread of WMD, and worry less about passing a "global test" (as Secretary of State John Kerry famously commented as a presidential candidate) when they contemplate using force. But tactical disagreements should not obscure the underlying bipartisan consensus: the United States will exercise global leadership, and ensure stability, through a network of alliances and powerful military presence in critical regions.

To implement this strategy in East Asia, the United States pursues three benign-sounding objectives. First, assurance: the United States seeks to assure its friends that it will protect them in time of crisis or war, and that it can do so effectively. The goal of assurance is to convince U.S. allies to forego independent steps to protect themselves (e.g., building powerful conventional military forces or nuclear weapons)—because such steps could trigger arms races and upset the region's political and economic order.

A second American objective is deterrence. The United States seeks to dissuade potential adversaries from turning disagreements into crises, and to deter them from turning crises into wars.

Finally, the United States seeks to promote political and economic cooperation—thereby turning allies and potential adversaries into stakeholders in a mutually beneficial, peaceful and prosperous region.

None of these goals sound provocative—who would argue against promoting stability and cooperation? The potential for trouble lies in the strategy's military requirements.

Because of the structure of the U.S. alliance system, and the nature of modern naval warfare, the benign-sounding U.S. policy toward Asia requires not merely U.S. military presence in the region, it requires a substantial degree of military dominance. Depending on China's future national-security choices, U.S. military dominance may cause considerable friction with Beijing.

Two pillars of the U.S. strategy—assuring allies, and deterring potential adversaries—rest upon U.S. military dominance in the Western Pacific. Allies can only feel safe outsourcing their security to the United States if they are confident that in time of crisis or war, Washington will be able to defend them effectively. This means that U.S. allies must be sure that the U.S. military will be able to cross five thousand miles of ocean with enough military power to decisively defeat whoever is menacing them. If allies begin to doubt U.S. power projection capabilities, they will, quite reasonably, feel compelled to develop more military power of their own. Similarly, the U.S. strategy requires that adversaries have no practical means for keeping American power projection at bay. If adversaries believe that they can keep U.S. reinforcements out of the region, deterrence will be undermined. The cornerstone of the U.S. strategy in East Asia is thus the ability to bring decisive force to bear if needed.

The changing nature of warfare makes power projection across vast oceans increasingly difficult. Modern sensors—satellite-based, ground-based, on unmanned aerial vehicles, and underwater—make tracking ships at sea easier than ever before. Furthermore, long-range strike systems, such as ballistic missiles and antiship cruise missiles, make it easier to destroy lumbering ships once they've been located. The United States has other means of projecting power into East Asia—for example, using forward air bases—but those bases are also easy targets for missile strikes, and increasingly sophisticated air-defense systems threaten to keep U.S. aircraft far from enemy coasts. The central role of power projection in U.S. national-security strategy—and the growing threat to ships and forward bases—explains the U.S. Defense Department's focus over the past decade on the "antiaccess" threat, especially China's growing capabilities.

The U.S. military's answer to this problem (known as "AirSea Battle [5]") is straightforward: be prepared to defeat antiaccess forces by blinding enemy sensors, degrading their command and control systems, and destroying their most capable conventional strike systems (e.g., those that target U.S. ships and airfields). The point is that in the age of advanced sensors and lethal long-range missiles, projecting overwhelming power across an ocean requires the ability to blind, disrupt, and disarm one's enemies at the opening stages of conflict.

Critics accuse the U.S. military of exaggerating the China threat. These critics protest that China has only a fraction of U.S. military power, and they decry expensive new weapons to defeat antiaccess capabilities as provocative and unnecessary. But regardless of the aggregate balance of military power between the United States and China, the U.S. Navy and Air Force are correct that U.S. strategy in Asia hinges on the promise to bring overwhelming force to bear—despite the expanse of the Pacific Ocean and the growing threat to power-projection forces. If China can substantially impede U.S. access during a war, the U.S. strategy toward the region will unravel.

WINTER IS COMING

Given Washington's national-security strategy, the only Chinese policy that will not conflict with U.S. national-security goals is the most docile option—the strategy of "rich nation, weak army." If China pursues any of the other options—including the more defensive ones—U.S.-China relations are likely to grow much more conflictual. Even if Beijing merely wants to be Washington's peer in China's own backyard, that would threaten the U.S. ability to move military forces to and around East Asia, undermining the core of Washington's regional strategy. Those analysts who argue that a status-quo China need not conflict with the United States underestimate the extent to which Chinese and American grand strategies are on trajectories that collide.

The best hope for amicable U.S.-China relations rests on Beijing adopting a highly restrained grand strategy, but it would be historically unprecedented if it did so. China would be choosing to live within a security order managed by another great power—one with whom it has tense relations. While some countries have pursued docile grand strategies (one thinks of Australia, Canada and Japan), they have done so under the protection of a friendly, like-minded ally, the United States. In fact, two of America's closest cold war allies, West Germany and Japan, took docility only so far. They built potent conventional military forces and, in Japan's case, a nuclear hedge in the form of a giant stockpile of plutonium. Great powers have not entrusted their security to this degree to another great power unless they had little choice or unusually warm relations.

Indeed, a look at China's national-security policy—its pursuit of antiaccess capabilities, its territorial claims, and discussions of claims to "second island chains"—suggests that it is (at a minimum) aspiring to be a regional great power. The remaining questions are the extent to which Beijing will confine its ambitions to East Asia (as opposed to pursuing a global strategy), and the extent to which it will tolerate U.S. global leadership or seek to undermine U.S. influence.

And the United States? In theory, Washington, like Beijing, has a number of strategic alternatives and could choose to adopt a strategy (such as "offshore balancing") that would not require U.S. military dominance in the Pacific. But this appears unlikely. There is little support for this move within the American foreign-policy establishment, the U.S. military or the globalized American economic elite. Offshore balancing would be a radical departure from the way that the United States currently operates in East Asia; from how it plans to operate in the region in coming decades; and from how it has organized U.S. security in the region for the past sixty years.

Some might argue that by demonstrating greater humility and modesty the United States can continue its current strategy while still reassuring China. Summits can be held; regional institutions can be strengthened; Beijing can be empowered with leadership roles. Liberals criticized George W. Bush for aggressive policies that were offensive to U.S. allies and adversaries alike. They argue that more diplomatically savvy, consensus-building leaders can reassure allies and soothe others that We Come In Peace.

But evidence from the past five years does not support this view. American grand strategy under a Democratic administration has not noticeably changed—if anything, U.S. policy is even more assertive in East Asia. Though a supporter of the policy, Asia scholar Michael Green characterizes the Obama administration's rebalancing effort as aimed at China's "soft underbelly" in Southeast Asia—deepening military ties with the Philippines and Singapore; stationing 2,500 U.S. Marines in Darwin, Australia; and even flirting with America's Cold War adversary Vietnam (which dwells on the Chinese border). The very dynamics we describe—China fearing the United States and acting to counter it; the United States fearing those countermeasures and then responding in turn—have not only occurred but have accelerated during the Obama administration.

In some sense, the greatest danger for the United States is the illusion that the current strategy of "leadership" or "deep engagement" is benign and unthreatening. China's pursuit of a policy of "deep engagement" in Latin America or the Caribbean would be viewed by policymakers in Washington as outrageously provocative. As China's power grows, Beijing's leaders are likely to develop similar intolerance of American aircraft flying near their shores, U.S. warships plying nearby waters and the network of U.S. military bases that surrounds China.

The fundamental problem in U.S.-China relations—the engine of conflict between the two countries—is neither America's grand strategy nor Beijing's. China would be entirely reasonable in wanting the ability to defend its airspace and coastal waters from foreign powers. It is also perfectly reasonable for the United States to want to uphold its sixty-year-long security commitments to the region by retaining the ability to move powerful air and naval forces there.

Of course, perhaps a U.S.-China clash will never occur—after all, as with the much-hyped rises of the Soviet Union and Japan, China's economy may languish or implode; a "Chinese Spring" could also derail its future prosperity. But assuming China's economy continues to grow at a healthy rate, unless the United States departs from six decades of foreign-policy precedent, or unless China elects to pursue extreme foreign-policy meekness, America's and China's reasonable national-security interests will collide. This is how the tragedy of great-power politics unfolds.

Jennifer Lind [6] is an associate professor of government at Dartmouth, and the author of Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics (Cornell, 2008). Follow her on Twitter @profLind [7].

Daryl Press [8] is an associate professor of government at Dartmouth, and the author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats (Cornell, 2005).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 25, 2013, 02:02:47 PM
If Abe is an indication of the direction in Japan, that's not going to help either:

Quote[Back to the future: Shinto's growing influence in politics
A small organization, little known to the public, has helped restore much of Japan's controversial past — and it is only getting started

BY DAVID MCNEILL
SPECIAL TO THE JAPAN TIMES
NOV 23, 2013

Immaculate and ramrod straight in a crisp, black suit, Japan's education minister, Hakubun Shimomura, speaks like a schoolteacher — slowly and deliberately. His brow creases with concern when he talks about Japan's diminished place in the world, its years of anemic economic growth and poorly competing universities. Mostly, though, he appears to be worried about the moral and spiritual decline of the nation's youth.

"The biggest problem with Japanese education is the tremendous self-deprecation of our high school children," he says in an interview at his Tokyo office. He cites an international survey in which children are asked: "Are there times when you feel worthless?" Eighty-four percent of Japanese kids say yes — double the figure in the United States, South Korea and China, he laments. "Without changing that, Japan has no future."

Shimomura's remedy for this corrosive moral decay is far-reaching: Children will be taught moral and patriotic education and respect for Japan's national symbols, its "unique" culture and history. Textbooks will remove "self-deprecating" views of history and references to "disputed" war crimes. They will reflect the government's point of view on key national issues, such as Japan's bitter territorial disputes with its three closest neighbors: China, Russia and South Korea.

Education reform represents only one layer of Shimomura and his government's ambitions. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a close political ally, wants to revise three of the country's basic modern charters: the 1946 Constitution, the education law, which they both think undervalues patriotism, and the nation's security treaty with the United States. The Emperor would be returned to a more prominent place in Japanese society. The special status of Yasukuni Shrine, which enshrines most of Japan's war dead, including the men who led the nation to disaster between 1933 and 1945, would be restored.

"They're trying to restore what was removed by the U.S. Occupation reforms," explains Mark Mullins, director of the Japan Studies Center at the University of Auckland. If it succeeds, the project amounts to the overturning of much of the existing order in Japan — a return to the past, with one eye on the future.

For an explanation of the core philosophy behind this project I visit an imposing black building that sits on the leafy borders of Meiji Shrine in Tokyo. The Association of Shinto Shrines, representing about 80,000 shrines, is classed as a religious administrative organization. It is also one of Japan's most successful political lobbyists.

Many of the nation's top elected officials, including Abe and Shimomura are members of the organization's political wing, Shinto Seiji Renmei (officially, the Shinto Association of Spiritual Leadership — eschewing the word "political" from the title). A sister organization, the Shinto Political Alliance Diet Members' Association boasts 240 lawmakers, including 16 out of the government's 19-member Cabinet. Abe is the association's secretary-general.

Seiji Renmei sees its mission as renewing the national emphasis on "Japanese spiritual values." In principle, this means pushing for constitutional revision and patriotic and moral education, and staunchly defending conservative values in ways that seem to contradict Abe's internationalist capitalism. The association opposes the free trade of rice and the sale of "strategic property" such as forests or lakes to non-Japanese, for instance.

Since its birth in 1969, Shinto Seiji Renmei has notched several victories in its quest to restore much of the nation's prewar political and social architecture. In 1979, it successfully lobbied the government to reinstate the practice of using imperial era names. In 2007, it won a national holiday, April 29, for Japan's wartime monarch, Hirohito — a day when Japanese might "look in awe at the sacred virtues of the Showa Emperor."

Over the past decade, Tokyo has tried to impose a directive demanding that teachers lead schoolchildren in singing the Kimigayo national anthem — another Shinto concern. In April this year, 168 Diet members visited Yasukuni for its spring festival — the largest number since these counts began 24 years ago. "A lot more politicians now understand the importance of our views," concludes Yutaka Yuzawa, head of Shinto Seiji Renmei.

Though not a member of the association, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi helped end the taboo on any overt show of sympathy with the militarism of the past with his six pilgrimages to Yasukuni, climaxing in his visit on Aug. 15, 2006. Yuzawa's father, Tadashi, was the head priest of Yasukuni at the time. For both, it was a vindication of years of struggle. "Our stance is that it is natural for the prime minister to pay his respects at the shrine on behalf of the country." Lawmakers such as former Prime Minister Naoto Kan who refuse to go are "impertinent," he adds.

Yuzawa accepts that these visits will worsen already dangerously frayed ties with Beijing and Seoul but insists it is "not something Japan can bend on."

"It relates to our culture, history and tradition," he says. "To us, Yasukuni Shrine is a god." Criticism that prime-ministerial visits confer legitimacy on the Class-A war criminals enshrined there cannot be taken seriously, he says.

"Perhaps, according to today's judgment, they might have made mistakes but back then they were doing their best for the country. In Japan, our way of thinking about the dead souls is that we don't criticize them. They were protecting the Emperor and, by extension, the Japanese people." That vital point, he says, is now understood by a growing number of Japanese politicians.

The American Occupation of 1945-51 ended Shinto's status as a state religion and attempted to banish its influence from Japan's public sphere, notably its emphasis on a pure racial identity linked to the Emperor. The core element of this belief, ruthlessly enforced through the education system, was the emperor's divine status as a direct descendant of the sun goddess Amaterasu. Though weakened, Shinto conservatives in Japan "were simply biding their time" until they could restore the religion's rightful place in Japanese society, says Mullins.

He sees 1995 — the year of the Kobe earthquake and Aum Shinrikyo deadly gas attacks on Japan's subway — as a turning point. The two events, combined with the agonizing decline of the miracle economy, had a profound impact on the nation's confidence. "The sense after that was: 'We have so many troubles in Japan, we need to go back and get what we had,' " recalls Mullins. "There are certain people very sympathetic to that, to Shinto's restoration vision."

One of those people is Abe. In October, he became the first prime minister in 84 years to attend the most important ceremony in Shinto, the Sengyo no Gi at Ise Shrine — a centuries-old ritual in which the main shrine buildings are demolished and rebuilt. Ise is considered home to the emperor's ancestors; Amaterasu is enshrined in the inner sanctum. The highlight of the ceremony is the removal of a mythological "sacred mirror" used to lure the sun goddess out of her cave. Abe took eight members of his Cabinet along to watch. Some scholars were agnostic on the visit, given that prime ministers routinely go to the shrine to show respect for Japanese traditions and culture. Others, however, were alarmed.

"In the past, Ise Jingu (shrine) was the fountainhead for unifying politics and religion and national polity fundamentalism," author Hisashi Yamanaka recently told the Asahi newspaper. "Abe's act is clearly a return to the ways before World War II."

It is far from clear how much of the past, exactly, Abe and his Cabinet want to revive, or how much sway Shinto holds over them. Shimomura swats away concerns about the government's agenda. "Sections of the media have an allergy to moral education," he says. "They are sending out the wrong image that we are trying to reinstate the prewar education system." However, parts of Shinto clearly sit uneasily with the modern, globalized economy the government says it is trying to build.

Yuzawa says Japan should prohibit sales of land and property to China, Japan's largest trading partner. Another possible point of conflict is the free trade of agricultural products, a key demand of U.S. negotiators in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks. Traditional ties between rice cultivation and Shinto rituals make this a no-no for Shinto fundamentalists, historian Matthew Penney notes in a recent article on the Asia-Pacific Journal.

Mullins says this magnetic tug of the past is not unique to Japan. "I see Shinto fundamentalists as very similar to U.S. Christian fundamentalists and Hindu neo-nationalists," he says. "It's people trying to cope with the modern world: to make it all black and white and nail it down."

But he says an "ecumenical group" of like-minded conservatives is in the ascendancy in Japan, led by Shinto and Nippon Kaigi, a nationalist think tank that advocates a return to "traditional values" and rejects Japan's "apology diplomacy" for its wartime misdeeds. "Abe's comeback has given them this sense of confidence," Mullins says.

Whatever happens to his government's larger agenda — much depends on Abe's economic performance — Shinto conservatives will likely continue their quiet mission to transform Japan. John Breen, a religion specialist at the International Research Center for Japanese Studies in Kyoto, cites the restoration of imperial markers on the annual calendar: State Foundation Day; Culture Day, which marks the birthday of the Meiji Emperor; the current Emperor's birthday in December; and Labor thanksgiving, which marks "the Emperor's annual performance of the Niiname rite, a celebration of Amaterasu's gift of rice to Japan."

"The deep imperial meanings of these holidays are concealed behind innocuous names like Culture day and Labor thanksgiving," Breen says. But the Shinto Association of Spiritual Leadership is determined to restore their original titles, "and so make apparent to all their true meaning."

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/11/23/national/back-to-the-future-shintos-growing-influence-in-politics/#.UpOd7tKsiSo
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on November 25, 2013, 03:57:34 PM
I've been to the Yasukuni shrine.  And bought a souvenir there too.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on November 25, 2013, 03:58:38 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 25, 2013, 03:57:34 PM
I've been to the Yasukuni shrine.  And bought a souvenir there too.  :ph34r:

White devil!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on November 25, 2013, 04:01:03 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on November 25, 2013, 03:58:38 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 25, 2013, 03:57:34 PM
I've been to the Yasukuni shrine.  And bought a souvenir there too.  :ph34r:

White devil!

And in addition, Japanese festival food selections make American festivals look paupers.

Of course, ours have less tentacles.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 26, 2013, 08:24:01 AM
Looks like the Japanese are taking the Chinese threat seriously.

Some good pics here.
http://news.usni.org/2013/10/09/japans-amphibious-buildup
QuoteJapan's Amphibious Buildup
By: Kyle Mizokami
Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Japan recently has been in the news as a result of several high-profile territorial incidents with its neighbor China. The incidents involve what Japanese call the Senkaku islands—the Diaoyu islands to the Chinese. Japan has legal ownership of the islands, which China disputes. The incidents have involved non-government activists and the coast guards of both nations, with many fearing an escalation could lead to some form of armed conflict.

Spurred on by those developments, Japan has accelerated what have been until now quiet plans to develop a specialized unit of marine infantry. This force, mentored by the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, is seen by Japan as essential in guarding the Senkakus, as well as other disputed territories. Like the Navy/Marine Corps team, the Japanese force will be a joint group consisting of the Ground, Air, and Maritime Self- Defense Forces, with everything from infantry to air support to the ships that carry them.

The creation of the Japanese marine unit is part of a series of a wide-ranging overhaul of Japan's ability to defend its borders. During the Cold War, Japan anticipated a Soviet invasion of the northernmost island of Hokkaido and built up forces there appropriately. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of Japan's neighbors, particularly China, Japan has shifted attention from the far north to the far south, in particular the Ryukyu and Senkaku islands west of Okinawa.

Specifically, Japan was concerned that activists from other countries with whom it has territorial disputes (countries including Russia, China, and South Korea) would land on Japanese territory and symbolically seize it, perhaps with weapons. Unfortunately these islands are on the periphery of Japan, without nearby military facilities, or even ports or airstrips. That necessitated an expeditionary force capable of self-deploying by air and sea to the periphery of the Japanese archipelago.

Japan has no forces tailored to amphibious operations, since marines are typically considered offensive in nature and Japan has barred itself from having offensive forces. However, the ban was merely a self-imposed policy decision, and in 2012 it was decided that defense-minded marines, who would transport themselves to places such as the Senkakus in time of crisis to defend or eject interlopers, were legal for Japan to operate.

Ground and Air Forces

Based at Nagasaki in southern Japan, the Western Army Infantry Regiment (WAIR) has been tasked the amphibious mission. The location ensures that the WAIR can be quickly embarked on Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) ships at Nagasaki/Sasebo; alternately they could board V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft at the nearby air bases of Nyutabaru and Tsuiki. The WAIR is considered only the core of a new marine force, which will be considerably larger.

The WAIR is approximately of battalion size, consisting of at least three infantry companies. The regiment is equipped as light infantry, with the heaviest weapons being 84mm Carl Gustav recoilless rifles and French MO-120-RT 120mm towed mortars. The regiment has no vehicles except for Mitsubishi Type 73 light trucks. Japan recently announced it is procuring up to six AAV-7A1 amphibious assault vehicles of the kind the U.S. Marines use. Such vehicles would afford a platoon of WAIR troops armored protection up to and onto the beachhead.

One company of the WAIR is sent every year to San Diego for the annual Iron Fist exercises. There they learn to conduct a variety of operations from the U.S. Marine Corps. Each year the exercises have grown progressively more complicated, starting with rigid-hull inflatable boat training to more recently conducting actual amphibious landings.

Air support for the marine unit is currently in the form of helicopters from the 1st Aviation Brigade, headquartered near Tokyo. During the June 2013 Dawn Blitz exercises in southern California, Japanese AH-64 Apache and CH-47 Chinook helicopters from 1st Brigade crossed the Pacific on Maritime Self-Defense Force ships to provide air support for WAIR. Tokyo is currently exploring buying organic air transport for the marines in the form of up to 20 V-22 Ospreys, which would allow the unit to quickly self-deploy to the Senkakus.

Naval Forces

Ironically, although Japan's amphibious warfare doctrine has been minimal it actually does have several highly capable amphibious ships. The three Landing Ship, Tanks (LSTs) of the Oosumi class feature full-length flight decks and a well deck, and can transport nearly a battalion of infantry, tanks and other vehicles. Each can carry two American-built Landing Craft Air Cushion (LCAC), of which Japan has six. In addition to the LCAC, Japan has a dozen medium landing craft that can move 30 tons of equipment or up to 80 personnel from ship to shore.

The recent addition of the Hyuga-class "helicopter destroyers" has added an interesting new dynamic to the new amphibious force. The ships, equipped to carry up to 14 helicopters and 400 personnel, functioned as helicopter landing platform ships during the Dawn Blitz exercises, much along the lines of the old U.S. Navy Iwo Jima class. Together with the Oosumi LSTs, the new helicopter destroyers could form the core of an ad hoc amphibious ready group, or even a sea base.

Under the tutelage of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, Japan is slowly but surely building up a credible, flexible amphibious force capable of responding to national emergencies. Highly trained with a high level of mobility, it could eventually become the equal of both. The force will not only be highly useful in Japan's territorial disputes, it will likely be a excellent partner for their American counterparts in joint operations.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 09:12:26 AM
Woah.  A ship with the Rising Sun flag.  That makes me feel surprisingly uneasy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 26, 2013, 09:20:01 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 09:12:26 AM
Woah.  A ship with the Rising Sun flag.  That makes me feel surprisingly uneasy.

This is the new Japan, my friend.  This time, they're on our side.  The only kamikazes they're flying these days have little umbrellas in them.

Today's JSDF:  Little.  Yellow.  Different.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on November 26, 2013, 09:34:39 AM
:lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on November 26, 2013, 01:43:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 09:12:26 AM
Woah.  A ship with the Rising Sun flag.  That makes me feel surprisingly uneasy.

Rising Sun flag isn't like the Swastika - it's the traditional Japanese naval ensign IIRC.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: 11B4V on November 26, 2013, 02:25:17 PM
Quote2 U.S. Air Force jets flew into China's new defense zone without following China's ID rules, U.S. official tells CNN's Barbara Starr.

Just breaking apparently. Headline only.

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/?hpt=sitenav
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 26, 2013, 02:36:38 PM
B-52s.
Even Chinese radar won't miss those.

Monroe was bright enough to make sure the British were on board before making big declarations about exclusions.
PRC seems to have forgotten to check with USAF and USN.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: 11B4V on November 26, 2013, 02:39:52 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 26, 2013, 02:36:38 PM
B-52s.
Even Chinese radar won't miss those.

Monroe was bright enough to make sure the British were on board before making big declarations about exclusions.
PRC seems to have forgotten to check with USAF and USN.
yip

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/11/26/us-flies-bombers-over-disputed-islands-claimed-by-china/?intcmp=latestnews
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 26, 2013, 02:44:41 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 26, 2013, 02:36:38 PM
PRC seems to have forgotten to check with USAF and USN.

Miscalculating the reactions of intended audiences in Chinese strategic thought is no new revelation. 

Good to see the US react so quickly, though.  Doesn't give the Chinese a sense of acceptance. 

The Washington is done in the Philippines, and the Nimitz is in the WestPac.  I wonder if their CVBGs will make minor detours in their cruise itineraries.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on November 26, 2013, 02:45:38 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 26, 2013, 02:36:38 PM
B-52s.
Even Chinese radar won't miss those.

Monroe was bright enough to make sure the British were on board before making big declarations about exclusions.
PRC seems to have forgotten to check with USAF and USN.

Yeah, possibly have the largest radar signature of any USAF combat aircraft ? :unsure:


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Maximus on November 26, 2013, 03:03:46 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 26, 2013, 02:44:41 PM
Miscalculating the reactions of intended audiences in Chinese strategic thought is no new revelation. 

Good to see the US react so quickly, though.  Doesn't give the Chinese a sense of acceptance. 

The Washington is done in the Philippines, and the Nimitz is in the WestPac.  I wonder if their CVBGs will make minor detours in their cruise itineraries.
According to the article I read the Washington is conducting joint exercises with the Japanese off Okinawa
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 26, 2013, 03:07:58 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 26, 2013, 02:44:41 PM
Miscalculating the reactions of intended audiences in Chinese strategic thought is no new revelation. 

Could be a blunder, could be a probe to test will and commitment.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 03:13:54 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 26, 2013, 01:43:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 09:12:26 AM
Woah.  A ship with the Rising Sun flag.  That makes me feel surprisingly uneasy.

Rising Sun flag isn't like the Swastika - it's the traditional Japanese naval ensign IIRC.

I never said it was like the swastika, if they were waving swastikas there would be nothing surprising about it making me feel uneasy.

Of course to the Chinese and Koreans it is a bit Swastika-like.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 26, 2013, 03:15:39 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 26, 2013, 01:43:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 09:12:26 AM
Woah.  A ship with the Rising Sun flag.  That makes me feel surprisingly uneasy.

Rising Sun flag isn't like the Swastika - it's the traditional Japanese naval ensign IIRC.

It is also the traditional flag of Japanese warcrimes in the eyes of its neighbours, I'm pretty sure.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on November 26, 2013, 04:12:58 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 26, 2013, 03:15:39 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 26, 2013, 01:43:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 09:12:26 AM
Woah.  A ship with the Rising Sun flag.  That makes me feel surprisingly uneasy.

Rising Sun flag isn't like the Swastika - it's the traditional Japanese naval ensign IIRC.

It is also the traditional flag of Japanese warcrimes in the eyes of its neighbours, I'm pretty sure.

Good point and one of occupation, for a good deal longer than the countries the nazis dominated. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on November 26, 2013, 04:19:57 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 26, 2013, 02:44:41 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 26, 2013, 02:36:38 PM
PRC seems to have forgotten to check with USAF and USN.

Miscalculating the reactions of intended audiences in Chinese strategic thought is no new revelation. 

Good to see the US react so quickly, though.  Doesn't give the Chinese a sense of acceptance. 

The Washington is done in the Philippines, and the Nimitz is in the WestPac.  I wonder if their CVBGs will make minor detours in their cruise itineraries.

If they do, at least there shouldn't be any crooked deals involved anymore!  :P

http://www.stripes.com/news/navy/2nd-high-ranking-navy-officer-relieved-of-duty-as-bribery-probe-expands-1.244597
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 26, 2013, 07:37:43 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 26, 2013, 01:43:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 09:12:26 AM
Woah.  A ship with the Rising Sun flag.  That makes me feel surprisingly uneasy.

Rising Sun flag isn't like the Swastika - it's the traditional Japanese naval ensign IIRC.
Tell that to a Korean and they will flip out and go on a ten minute rant on how they're exactly the same.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 26, 2013, 07:41:47 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 03:13:54 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 26, 2013, 01:43:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 26, 2013, 09:12:26 AM
Woah.  A ship with the Rising Sun flag.  That makes me feel surprisingly uneasy.

Rising Sun flag isn't like the Swastika - it's the traditional Japanese naval ensign IIRC.

I never said it was like the swastika, if they were waving swastikas there would be nothing surprising about it making me feel uneasy.

Of course to the Chinese and Koreans it is a bit Swastika-like.
If the Japanese were flying a Swastika it would just be odd.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on November 26, 2013, 07:49:09 PM
What's slightly odd is as well as the same flag, it's the same ruling family in Japan, did they drop the Imperial stuff ?

You could see how an typical Asian national/patriot might get a bit upset, rather like I'd imagine a Pole would who lived next to a modern Germany that still had the swastika or say Black cross as a flag, the exact same national anthem and the head of state was Hitler's son, but there wouldn't be anything to get upset about as it was now a constitutional monarchy. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on November 26, 2013, 07:52:31 PM
I think Hirohito was probably closer in status to the Kaiser in WW1 than to Hitler in WW2.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on November 26, 2013, 07:57:06 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 26, 2013, 07:52:31 PM
I think Hirohito was probably closer in status to the Kaiser in WW1 than to Hitler in WW2.

In some senses yes and I thought about that when I posted, but I think the over-riding similarity, as far as the victims were concerned, was everything was done in their names, be it the Fuhrer or the Emperor.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on November 26, 2013, 08:01:12 PM
Though Hitler certainly has much more notoriety. 

Even most brain-dead Americans can make the "Hitler?-WW2!-Nazis!" connection, whereas if you name-dropped Hirohito, you'd likely get a lot of blank stares.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 26, 2013, 08:08:43 PM
You go back along a long enough timeline, everybody in that part of the world is awash in blood. 
Ain't nobody innocent when it comes to crimes against humanity on that side of the planet;  the barking just comes down to who did what to whom last.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 27, 2013, 12:12:23 AM
It's only Tuesday, and AEI is freaking the fuck out already.

As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend!"

QuoteThe Day America Lost Asia
By MICHAEL AUSLIN
November 26, 2013

While Washington and the world furiously debated the interim agreement between Iran and the United States over the weekend, Nov. 24, 2013, may go down in history as the day America lost Asia.

Starting this past Sunday, China began air patrols over its newly designated "air defense identification zone" over the East China Sea—home to a chain of islands disputed with Japan—and within 24 hours Beijing turned 80 years of free aerial navigation on its head. China's move is no less dramatic than Iran's potential victory in gaining the right to enrich uranium: Absent an effective U.S. response, China has successfully begun changing the rules of international security in East Asia. And with a whimper, not a bang, Washington may begin losing its influence in Asia, despite its still-preponderant strength.

Here are four things the world should note about China's bold move.

First, let's call it what it is. Beijing has declared an air control zone, not a defense zone. Normally, in air defense zones countries seek to identify aircraft in that are close to or approaching national territory. Think of the analogue with territorial waters. Obviously, airplanes that fly over national territory, such as commercial airliners, must identify themselves. But they are also presumed to be engaging in innocent passage, just like cargo or passenger ships on the seas.

What China has done is very different. In claiming most of the East China Sea as a control zone—within 80 miles of Japanese territory at its closest point—the country is demanding that airplanes flying hundreds of miles from China's actual territory must now identify themselves and declare their flight paths, even if they are not going to China. This is not defense: It is a not-so-subtle form of much wider control. While Chinese spokespersons say the move does not affect the freedom of international flights, the reality is much different. There is no basis for such a wide zone, other than to get foreign countries to accept that they are passing through what are, in essence, Chinese-controlled skies. And if a foreign plane doesn't provide Chinese authorities the information they demand? China will then take "defensive emergency measures," according to the government—in other words, shadow, threaten or shoot down foreign planes.

Second, Beijing's announcement is a direct challenge to Japan and Korea, since China's new control zone overlaps those of both Tokyo and Seoul. This, of course, is the whole idea, at least with respect to Japan: to chip away further at Japanese control of the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, the chain of islands located in the East China Sea to the northeast of Taiwan that Japan and China both claim as theirs. In recent years, Tokyo has grown increasingly concerned about China probing in the waters off the islands, which Japan has administered since 1972 and over which it has claimed ownership since 1895. In an inept move last year, the Japanese government bought three of the disputed islands from their private owner, sparking the most serious crisis in Sino-Japanese relations in decades. In addition to a diplomatic freeze between the two countries and anti-Japanese demonstrations in China, Chinese paramilitary patrol ships have repeatedly entered into the contested waters, and Beijing has started flying patrol planes near their airspace, as well. Each time, the Chinese have been met by Japanese Coast Guard vessels and Air Self-Defense Force planes. Tensions are at a fever pitch, and one accident in the sky or waters could plunge the two into a crisis that nobody really wants.

The move over the weekend to make a legally accepted claim over the airspace of the Senkaku Islands is designed to force the issue. If Japan decides to contest China's claim, then Asia's two most powerful air forces will soon be playing games of aerial chicken at 600 miles per hour. If Japan retreats, then China will have made a huge step forward in getting its claims over the Senkakus and the East China Sea accepted.

Korea, too, is concerned with the overlap of its western air defense zone with China's new claim, but Beijing is wooing Seoul, giving it prior notification and playing on Korean President Park Geun-hye's deep distrust of Japan and desire to build closer relations with China. While Seoul should be just as worried about ceding China the authority to control the skies over the East China Sea, South Korean domestic politics is already giving Beijing a win by default.

The real question is how another country—the United States—will respond. The Pentagon has said U.S. military flights will not respect China's new control zone, and indeed, on Tuesday, two U.S. bombers flew over the sea in what Pentagon officials said was a routine exercise. But heading forward, will the Obama administration give orders to tone down the amount of American flying in the region, so as not to provoke a crisis? What are the rules of engagement for the first time a Chinese air force plane demands that a U.S. military plane identify itself or turn back? Will U.S. forces back up Japanese air force planes that find themselves threatened?

Third, regardless of what the United States does, the danger is that the tide of regional trends is headed in China's favor. Within just 24 hours of the establishment of the control zone, Asian governments and commercial air transport companies hastily announced that they would comply with Beijing's demands. Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and even Japan all said that their commercial planes would identify themselves to Chinese authorities, notify China of their flight plans, and provide transponder information and logos. This effectively ends free aerial passage through international skies over one of the world's busiest air corridors. Millions of Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Americans, Indians and others transit among the capitals and major cities of Northeast Asia. Now, the lives of those innocent passengers lie in the hands of young Chinese fighter pilots, who have very little experience dealing with civilian airliners or uncertain situations. That is why so many nations have rushed to accept China's demands: fear that the failure to do so will result in tragedy. Such is a world where might makes right.

Fourth, this is just the beginning. Already, the Chinese have said that they will set up other air control zones once the East China Sea area is pacified. That, of course, means the South China Sea, the world's busiest waterways, where China is embroiled in island territorial disputes with Southeast Asian nations like Brunei, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. If countries as rich and powerful as Japan and South Korea accede to Chinese control of international skies in their area, what hope is there for smaller nations to refuse? By Thanksgiving next year, all of East Asia may well be under a Chinese aerial protectorate, in which all nations fly at the sufferance of Beijing or its regional military commands. Next, the waters of the Yellow Sea, along the Korean littoral, may be similarly covered, thus forcing the United States to decide how it will do air operations off the peninsula.

All this may not come to pass, but Beijing has gambled that the United States is too distracted and too wary of conflict in Asia to oppose the new reality. Moreover, China assumes that smaller nations, even Japan, will ultimately decide to alter their behavior so as not to provoke a clash with their neighbor and largest trading partner. It also makes sense to force the issue before Japan and South Korea get advanced F-35 fighters, which would undoubtedly embolden them to reject Chinese demands. By 2020 or so, when other Asian air forces get next-generation fighters, China's air control precedent could have been in place for more than a half-decade.

Americans are comfortable talking about freedom of the seas, and the U.S. Navy reminds the world regularly that it keeps the oceans open to all comers. Washington isn't likely to brook any threats to freedom of maritime navigation, whether military or civilian. Neither should it accept restrictions on the freedom of aerial navigation. Yet it has already lost half the battle at the first shots. The Obama administration needs to make daily shows of force, flying fighters, more bombers, cargo and reconnaissance planes ostentatiously through the skies that China now claims. It should invite all nations in Asia to join with the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy in regular aerial transits, simply for the right of it. U.S. planes should be on alert to come to the aid of any planes, military or civilian, that are threatened by China. And President Barack Obama, or Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, should publicly urge all Asian nations to reject China's demands and announce that any of them will be protected by U.S. fighter jets.

If the White House shrinks from taking these steps, the Chinese will have won a victory that will change the perception of the balance of power in Asia. And Americans will be flying the unfriendly skies, all alone.

Michael Auslin is resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on November 27, 2013, 12:16:01 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 26, 2013, 07:41:47 PM
If the Japanese were flying a Swastika it would just be odd.

Oh for Godsake :bleeding:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 27, 2013, 12:39:06 AM
I bet the below decks refurbishment to meet mandatory feng shui minimum regulations was a bitch. 

QuoteChinese aircraft carrier on move
By: Associated Press
November 26, 2013 10:05 PM EST

BEIJING — China's sole aircraft carrier has departed for its first-ever sea trials in the South China Sea, a mission likely to draw scrutiny amid Beijing's drive to assert its claims to those waters and their island groups.

The official Xinhua News Agency said the cruise aims to test the Admiral Kuznetsov Varyag Liaoning's crew and equipment over long distances and a variety of sea conditions.

It said the ship was accompanied by two destroyers and two missile cruisers - elements of a standard aircraft carrier battle group - when it left its northern home port of Qingdao. The Admiral Kuznetsov Varyag Liaoning has launched and recovered jet fighters but not yet been given its full complement of aircraft.

Since entering service last year, the carrier has conducted several rounds of sea trials in the relatively tranquil waters off China's northeast coast. State media reports Wednesday said the navy wanted to submit it to more trying conditions.

"It is hard to find an ideal area for the mission, except for the South China Sea," the China Daily newspaper quoted Maj. Gen. Yin Zhuo, a frequent spokesman on military affairs, as saying.

China says the South China Sea, its islands and potential mineral wealth belong to it, and has increasingly developed civilian and military outposts there and used its coast guard to confront the ships of other nations that also claim parts of the sea.

Yin said a cruise of up to two months was necessary to conduct proper sea trials, and would include the launching of fighters under difficult weather conditions.

Chinese navy ships on their way to the South China Sea have increasingly transited through the Miyako Strait in Japan's Okinawa island chain. While the strait is an international waterway, Japan's military pays close attention to the Chinese navy's activities in the area.

The Admiral Kuznetsov Varyag Liaoning was bought from Ukraine more than a decade ago and extensively refurbished before entering service last year. At 57,000 tons, the ship is a little over half the size of the U.S. Navy's Nimitz class carriers.

China has described the carrier as an experimental platform but hasn't said whether it will play an active service role. The lengthy refurbishment was seen as a learning exercise for China's own future carriers, now believed to be under construction near Shanghai.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 27, 2013, 05:47:48 AM
So, the US flew bombers over the bit of sea China has decided to claim and they didn't tell China. Good on the US for sending a mesage they're supporting Japan for once.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 27, 2013, 06:53:47 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 27, 2013, 05:47:48 AM
So, the US flew bombers over the bit of sea China has decided to claim and they didn't tell China. Good on the US for sending a mesage they're supporting Japan for once.

LOL, "for once", he says.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 27, 2013, 07:39:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 27, 2013, 05:47:48 AM
So, the US flew bombers over the bit of sea China has decided to claim and they didn't tell China. Good on the US for sending a mesage they're supporting Japan for once.
The Secretary of State, the Senate and IIRC the Secretary of Defense have all publicly backed Japan's claim and said that it falls under the American security umbrellas.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 27, 2013, 01:00:55 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 27, 2013, 12:12:23 AM
It's only Tuesday, and AEI is freaking the fuck out already.

As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend!"

So all it takes to lose Asia is for China to say "we declare this an exclusive flight zone"?

Seems a bit overwrought.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 28, 2013, 01:21:55 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 27, 2013, 06:53:47 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 27, 2013, 05:47:48 AM
So, the US flew bombers over the bit of sea China has decided to claim and they didn't tell China. Good on the US for sending a mesage they're supporting Japan for once.

LOL, "for once", he says.
The US has been quite worryingly quiet and neutral on the issue until now.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 28, 2013, 01:38:54 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 28, 2013, 01:21:55 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 27, 2013, 06:53:47 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 27, 2013, 05:47:48 AM
So, the US flew bombers over the bit of sea China has decided to claim and they didn't tell China. Good on the US for sending a mesage they're supporting Japan for once.

LOL, "for once", he says.
The US has been quite worryingly quiet and neutral on the issue until now.
Did you ignore everything I said?

Are you going to force me to link to articles proving those assertions?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 28, 2013, 02:20:34 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 28, 2013, 01:21:55 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 27, 2013, 06:53:47 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 27, 2013, 05:47:48 AM
So, the US flew bombers over the bit of sea China has decided to claim and they didn't tell China. Good on the US for sending a mesage they're supporting Japan for once.

LOL, "for once", he says.
The US has been quite worryingly quiet and neutral on the issue until now.


What are you going on about?  The ADIZ?  That just happened this weekend, and both statements and actions have been issued accordingly.

Worryingly quiet and neutral, my black ass.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 28, 2013, 04:11:27 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 28, 2013, 01:38:54 AM
Did you ignore everything I said?

Are you going to force me to link to articles proving those assertions?
Please do. I've seen little definite from the US supporting Japan on the Senkakus until now. It has been genuinely worrying.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 28, 2013, 06:15:42 AM
How much more support can you get from the US government than this?

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/12/01/national/u-s-senate-passes-senkaku-backing/

QuoteU.S. Senate passes Senkaku backing
by Eric Johnston

Staff Writer

    Dec 1, 2012
    Article history

OSAKA – The U.S. Senate on Thursday unanimously approved an amendment to the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act that is designed to counter attempts by China to challenge Japan's administration of the Senkaku Islands but sidesteps the question of who has ultimate sovereignty over the disputed territory.

The amendment, offered by Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat, states U.S. opposition to any efforts to coerce, threaten to use force or use force to resolve territorial issues. It concludes by reaffirming the commitment of the U.S. to the defense of territories under the administration of Japan.


"The peaceful settlement of territorial and jurisdictional disputes in the East China Sea requires the exercise of self-restraint by all parties in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and destabilize the region, and differences should be handled in a constructive manner consistent with universally recognized principles of customary international law," the amendment says.

"While the United States takes no position on the ultimate sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands, the United States acknowledges the administration of Japan over the Senkaku Islands. The unilateral actions of a third party will not affect United States acknowledgement of the administration of Japan over the Senkaku Islands," it adds.

"Over the past several years, China has taken increasingly aggressive actions to assert its claim over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and in a broad expanse of the South China Sea," Webb said.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 28, 2013, 09:01:37 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 28, 2013, 04:11:27 AM
Please do. I've seen little definite from the US supporting Japan on the Senkakus until now. It has been genuinely worrying.

The Us and Japan revised the Guidelines for Defense Cooperation last month for the first time since 1997, we've moved the US air defense HQ to Yokota AB, and Hawk Carlisle himself says the USAF and Japan are working tighter on air and missile defense than even 2 years ago.

So relax already.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 28, 2013, 09:03:18 PM
Koreans are not happy about this, saw a whole half hour news program on tv yesterday on the situation with grim faced commentators.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/japan-south-korea-military-jets-cross-through-china-air-defense-id-zone/2013/11/28/6285d350-5816-11e3-bdbf-097ab2a3dc2b_story.html

QuoteChina sends warplanes to new air defense zone after U.S., Japan, S. Korea incursions

BEIJING — China said Thursday that it had sent warplanes to patrol its newly declared maritime air defense identification zone, ratcheting up a dispute over an island chain that has turned into a dangerous standoff in the region.

The move came after Japan and South Korea said Thursday that they had sent surveillance aircraft of their own into the area in the East China Sea. The United States has joined many of China's neighbors in condemning the decision this week to establish the zone and defied Beijing by flying two B-52 bombers through the area Tuesday.

A Chinese air force spokesman, Col. Shen Jinke, said several fighter jets and an early- warning aircraft had been sent on "defensive" air patrols in the zone, to "strengthen the monitoring of aerial targets," the official Xinhua News Agency reported.


Experts say China's decision to establish the zone — bolstered by a threat that any non­commercial aircraft entering it without notice could face "defensive emergency measures" — has inflamed an already tense situation with Japan and raised the possibility of military conflict.

Beijing had initially reacted calmly to the U.S. challenge Tuesday, simply noting that it had identified and monitored the American warplanes. That muted response drew criticism from citizens on Chinese micro-blogging sites, and even from state news media.

The nationalist Global Times newspaper said that the United States had engaged China in a "war of public opinion" and that Beijing had "failed to make a timely and ideal response."

"Beijing needs to reform its information release mechanism to win the psychological battles waged by Washington and Tokyo," the paper said in an editorial.

Shen said the Chinese air force would remain on high alert and would take "relevant measures according to different air threats" to defend the country's airspace, Xinhua reported.

In another editorial, the Global Times said Japan, not the United States, was the target of the new zone and suggested that enforcement of the zone would be selective.

"If the U.S. does not go too far, we will not target it in safeguarding our air defense zone," the newspaper wrote. "What we should do at present is to firmly counter provocative actions from Japan."

The latest flights intensify the game of dare being played above Asia's contested maritime territory. Analysts said China had established the zone to bolster its claims to a chain of tiny, rocky islands administered by Japan and to match a similar air defense identification zone long established by its rival.

But they said the decision could have backfired, uniting several of China's neighbors in condemnation and providing the United States a perfect opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to ensuring stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

A spokesman for the Japanese government said Thursday that its Lockheed Martin-made turboprop patrol planes have been conducting routine flights in China's air defense identification zone since Beijing's declaration. The spokesman did not say specifically when the flights have taken place or how many there have been. Japan has not been notifying China of its activities.

Japan's Defense Ministry did not confirm the flights, but one official, requesting anonymity to describe the situation, said that Japan is "conducting the same monitoring activity as before, and we will not change or restrict such activities."

South Korea's flight took place Wednesday near the area of a South Korean maritime research center, built atop a submerged rock that Seoul and Beijing contest.

The flight marks a "clear sign that Seoul will not recognize the new airspace claim," South Korea's Yonhap news agency said in its report. Yonhap also reported Thursday that China had rejected Seoul's request to redraw its air defense identification zone and eliminate an overlap with the zone of South Korea. The South in turn said it may expand its own zone.

In Asia's waters, territorial disputes go back decades or centuries and draw in nearly every nation in the region. The nastiest dispute of late has been between Japan and China over several uninhabited islets and rocks known as the Senkaku in Japanese and the Diaoyu in Chinese.

Japan infuriated China last year by purchasing several of those islets from a private landowner, and China has since increased its surveillance — both with vessels and aircraft — around those islands. Japan has frequently scrambled its own fighter jets in response.

U.S. officials said China's unilaterally announced air defense identification zone needlessly raised tensions between Asia's two largest economies. In his trip next week through the region, Vice President Biden plans to convey those concerns to China, a senior Obama administration official told reporters Wednesday.

"There is an emerging pattern of behavior by China that is unsettling to China's own neighbors," the official said. Biden will raise questions "about how China operates in international space and how China deals with areas of disagreement with its neighbors."

Harlan reported from Seoul. Li Qi contributed to this report.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 29, 2013, 12:48:30 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 28, 2013, 06:15:42 AM
How much more support can you get from the US government than this?

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/12/01/national/u-s-senate-passes-senkaku-backing/

QuoteU.S. Senate passes Senkaku backing
by Eric Johnston

Staff Writer

    Dec 1, 2012
    Article history

OSAKA – The U.S. Senate on Thursday unanimously approved an amendment to the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act that is designed to counter attempts by China to challenge Japan's administration of the Senkaku Islands but sidesteps the question of who has ultimate sovereignty over the disputed territory.

The amendment, offered by Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat, states U.S. opposition to any efforts to coerce, threaten to use force or use force to resolve territorial issues. It concludes by reaffirming the commitment of the U.S. to the defense of territories under the administration of Japan.


"The peaceful settlement of territorial and jurisdictional disputes in the East China Sea requires the exercise of self-restraint by all parties in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and destabilize the region, and differences should be handled in a constructive manner consistent with universally recognized principles of customary international law," the amendment says.

"While the United States takes no position on the ultimate sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands, the United States acknowledges the administration of Japan over the Senkaku Islands. The unilateral actions of a third party will not affect United States acknowledgement of the administration of Japan over the Senkaku Islands," it adds.

"Over the past several years, China has taken increasingly aggressive actions to assert its claim over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and in a broad expanse of the South China Sea," Webb said.

The US needs better PR.
That is  mostly reported as
Quotethe United States takes no position on the ultimate sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands,
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 29, 2013, 12:56:16 AM
Maybe the Japanese media is like the British? They oscillate from neediness (special relationship on the rocks) to chippiness (poodle)?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 29, 2013, 01:03:17 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 29, 2013, 12:56:16 AM
Maybe the Japanese media is like the British? They oscillate from neediness (special relationship on the rocks) to chippiness (poodle)?

Or, like the rest of the world, they're confident that not only can the JSDF handle anything the PLA does in their usual ham-handed crisis management, but that it doesn't even need to be said that the United States--as not only the guarantor of both freedom of navigation and freedom of airspace in the Pacific since 1945, but of Japan's existence itself--has Japan's back, and that it's mildly insulting to even bother questioning it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 29, 2013, 01:04:20 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 29, 2013, 12:48:30 AM

How much more support can you get from the US government than this?

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/12/01/national/u-s-senate-passes-senkaku-backing/

QuoteU.S. Senate passes Senkaku backing
by Eric Johnston

Staff Writer

    Dec 1, 2012
    Article history

OSAKA – The U.S. Senate on Thursday unanimously approved an amendment to the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act that is designed to counter attempts by China to challenge Japan's administration of the Senkaku Islands but sidesteps the question of who has ultimate sovereignty over the disputed territory.

The amendment, offered by Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat, states U.S. opposition to any efforts to coerce, threaten to use force or use force to resolve territorial issues. It concludes by reaffirming the commitment of the U.S. to the defense of territories under the administration of Japan.



The US needs better PR.
That is  mostly reported as
Quotethe United States takes no position on the ultimate sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands,
It's not our fault your media is stupid.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 29, 2013, 01:16:35 AM
Talk about sending messages that we mean business.

First, B-52s...then...JOE, BITCHES

QuoteWhat can be done? Next week Joe Biden, America's vice-president, arrives in China.

:yeah:

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 29, 2013, 01:19:19 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 29, 2013, 12:48:30 AM
The US needs better PR.

The 7th Fleet takes care of our PR just fine.

QuotePHILIPPINE SEA (NNS) -- Demonstrating the extraordinary flexibility of a carrier strike group, USS George Washington (CVN 73) kicked off its participation in Annual Exercise (AnnualEx) 13, Nov. 25, just days after completing a humanitarian assistance mission under Operation Damayan in the Philippines.

AnnualEx 13 is designed to increase the defensive readiness and interoperability of Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) and U.S. naval forces through training in air and sea operations.

The complex exercise, which takes place in waters surrounding Japan, involves units in comprehensive scenarios involving maritime training in the air, surface and subsurface battlespaces in support of the defense of Japan.

AnnualEx allows the United States and Japan to practice and evaluate the coordination, procedures and interoperability elements required to effectively and mutually respond to the defense of Japan or to a regional crisis or contingency situation in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region, while building bilateral confidence and working relationships.

AnnualEx 13 strengthens the close, long-standing relationship of U.S. forces and JMSDF. This exercise demonstrates the continuing commitment to deepen strong ties of mutual support and friendship.

U.S. Navy participating units include aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73), Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers USS Antietam (CG 54), Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54), USS Lassen (DDG 82), USS McCampbell (DDG 85), USS Mustin (DDG 89) and maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft and a U.S. submarine.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 29, 2013, 07:11:25 PM
Excellent to see Japan and South Korea not backing down.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/29/21675753-on-high-alert-fighter-jets-ramp-up-tensions-in-east-china-sea?lite

QuoteBy Ben Blanchard and Roberta Rampton, Reuters

BEIJING/WASHINGTON - China scrambled jets on Friday in response to two U.S. spy planes and 10 Japanese aircraft, including F-15 fighters, entering its new air defense zone over the East China Sea, state news agency Xinhua said, raising the stakes in a standoff with the United States, Japan and South Korea.

The jets were scrambled for effective monitoring, Xinhua cited air force spokesman Shen Jinke as saying. The report gave no further details.

Japan and South Korea flew military aircraft through the zone, which includes the skies over islands at the heart of a territorial dispute between Japan and China, the two countries said on Thursday, while Washington sent two unarmed B-52 bombers into the airspace earlier this week in a sign of support for its ally Japan. None of those aircraft informed China.

The Pentagon has declined to offer specifics on any additional U.S. flights and it neither confirmed nor denied the Chinese report of two U.S. spy aircraft entering the zone.

One U.S. defense official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said only the U.S. military was still flying routine missions in the region, including reconnaissance and surveillance flights.

Xinhua earlier said China had sent several fighter jets and an early warning aircraft into the new air defense zone.

China last week announced that foreign aircraft passing through it - including passenger planes - would have to identify themselves to Chinese authorities.

The Chinese patrol mission, conducted on Thursday, was "a defensive measure and in line with international common practices", Xinhua reported Shen as saying.

The aircraft, including Russian-designed Su-30 fighter jets, conducted routine patrols and monitored targets in the zone, Shen said.

"China's air force is on high alert and will take measures to deal with diverse air threats to firmly protect the security of the country's airspace," he said.

However, Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said it was "incorrect" to suggest China would shoot down aircraft which entered the zone without first identifying themselves. He did not elaborate.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said on Friday he did not know if Chinese planes were in the zone but added there was no change to Japan's sense of alertness.

Ties between China and Japan have been strained for months by the dispute over the islands in the East China Sea, called the Diaoyu by China and the Senkaku by Japan. Washington takes no position on the sovereignty of the islands but recognizes Tokyo's administrative control and says the U.S.-Japan security pact applies to them.

Europe's top diplomat, Catherine Ashton, said the European Union was concerned about China's decision to establish the new air defense zone as well as its announcement of "emergency defense measures" if other parties did not comply.

"This development heightens the risk of escalation and contributes to raising tensions in the region," Ashton said. "The EU calls on all sides to exercise caution and restraint."

CRITICISM

China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang criticized Ashton's remarks, saying China hoped the EU could treat the situation "objectively and rationally".

"Actually, Madam Ashton should know that some European countries also have air defense identification zones," Qin said. "I don't know if this leads to tensions in the European regional situation. European countries can have air defense identification zones. Why can't China?"

Asked to clarify China's expectations for what information airlines were expected to report, Qin said: "International law does not have clear rules on what kind of flight or airplane should apply", adding that each country made its own rules.

"Therefore, China's method does not violate international law and accords with international practice," he said.

China's Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that since the zone had come into force there had been no impact on the safe operation of international civilian flights, although it added that China "hoped" airlines would cooperate.

Japan's two biggest airlines have defied the identification order since Wednesday at the request of the Japanese government.

Although there are risks of a confrontation in the zone, U.S. and Chinese military officials have stepped up communication with each other in recent years and are in regular contact to avoid accidental clashes.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is visiting China, Japan and South Korea next week, and will try to ease tensions over the issue, senior U.S. officials said.

"We decline to comment on Chinese flights, but the United States will continue to partner with our allies and operate in the area as normal," a Pentagon spokesman said.

China's Defense Ministry has said that it was aware of the U.S., Japanese and South Korean military aircraft in the zone and had tracked them all.

Ties between China and Japan, often tense, have increasingly been frayed in recent years by regional rivalry, mutual mistrust over military intentions and what China feels is Japan's lack of contrition over its brutal occupation of parts of China before and during World War Two.

In a show of support for the military, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited a base in Jinan in eastern China, where he said "military training is critical to beef up the PLA's (People's Liberation Army) war capacities", according to the Xinhau news agency.

Xi did not make direct mention of the East China Sea air defense zone.

"Though life is becoming better, history can't be forgotten and those who made sacrifices for (the) new China's founding must be remembered," Xinhua quoted Xi as saying in a separate report.

The Global Times, an influential tabloid published by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily newspaper, praised the government for its calm response in the face of "provocations", saying China would not target the United States in the zone as long as it "does not go too far".
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But it warned Japan it could expect a robust response if it continued to fly military aircraft in the zone.

"If the trend continues, there will likely be frictions and confrontations and even a collision in the air ... It is therefore an urgent task for China to further train its air force to make full preparation for potential conflicts," it wrote in an editorial on Friday.

Additional reporting by Phil Stewart in Washington and Sui-Lee Wee, Michael Martina and Paul Carsten in Beijing
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 29, 2013, 07:25:12 PM
Speculation in the Xiacob household is that Xi may be in slightly less firm control than previously thought, and that this escalation could very well be a play by someone aligned with the military to assert their authority.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 29, 2013, 09:35:35 PM
Meh, it's still Xi's show on the CMC. Don't get fooled by the rolled-up sleeves and Dockers from meeting Obama, it's still his call.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 02:57:26 AM
Just heard on BBC that the US is advising American airlines to comply with Chinese ADIZ rules.

Methinks not the best move geopolitically.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 30, 2013, 03:00:43 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 02:57:26 AM
Just heard on BBC that the US is advising American airlines to comply with Chinese ADIZ rules.

Methinks not the best move geopolitically.
As long as the US and Japanese military keep sending in warplanes, I don't think it matters.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:05:19 AM
It's a game of inches, and the US just blinked.

I would be OK with telling the airlines to sound off, just as long as you don't announce it to the world that that's what you've done.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 30, 2013, 03:11:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:05:19 AM
I would be OK with telling the airlines to sound off, just as long as you don't announce it to the world that that's what you've done.
How would that be possible? You really think it wouldn't leak from State or one of the staff from one of the however many airlines you spoke to?

It was bound to come out. Given that better that you make the statement (and keep up other stuff) than it furtively leaking.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:16:08 AM
"Is it true that the Obama administration has advised US airlines to announce their presence to the Chinese government upon entering China's newly-declared Air Defense Identification Zone?"

"The position of the US is that airplanes transiting the area described have no obligation to communicate their identity and flight plan to the Chinese government."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 30, 2013, 03:24:49 AM
I really don't get the advantage of that. It'd still come out but the US government would've been extra Jesuitical about it?

It'd also probably cause a small political stink at home when it leaks out that the US government did strongly suggest airlines cooperate.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:27:01 AM
Yes.  Words matter in international politics.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on November 30, 2013, 03:28:01 AM
Trying to come across as playing chicken using civilian passengers isn't an obvious choice. Safety first.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:32:32 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 30, 2013, 03:28:01 AM
Trying to come across as playing chicken using civilian passengers isn't an obvious choice. Safety first.

That would be a reasonable response if my proposed alternative were to forbid US airlines to identify themselves.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on November 30, 2013, 03:33:16 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:32:32 AM
Quote from: The Brain on November 30, 2013, 03:28:01 AM
Trying to come across as playing chicken using civilian passengers isn't an obvious choice. Safety first.

That would be a reasonable response if my proposed alternative were to forbid US airlines to identify themselves.

No. Think again.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 30, 2013, 03:33:50 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:27:01 AM
Yes.  Words matter in international politics.
But what's the advantage? Everyone would still find out the US blinked and they'd look weasely about it too?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 30, 2013, 08:38:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:16:08 AM
"Is it true that the Obama administration has advised US airlines to announce their presence to the Chinese government upon entering China's newly-declared Air Defense Identification Zone?"

"The position of the US is that airplanes transiting the area described have no obligation to communicate their identity and flight plan to the Chinese government."

I don't know if it's "blinking" as much as it is your usual "abundance of caution" for civilian carriers to protect themselves as much as possible.

If some hot shot Commie pinko slope pilot with a raging nationalist hard-on bumps a wing and brings down a United flight--because we all know how disciplined PLA pilots are when it comes to cat-and-mouse Cold War games in the sky--the impeachment proceedings against the POTUS would begin the next business day for failing to protect civilian aircraft by informing carriers exactly how dangerous the airspace actually was.

OBAMA LIED UNITED FLIED PEOPLE DIED

See, it's a story that practically writes itself.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on November 30, 2013, 10:51:56 AM
If such a retreat really happened, it should be all over Foxnews by now. :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 30, 2013, 01:19:29 PM
The Chinese toned down the rhetoric in their statements of the 27th, so they get a treat in return.  Like Yi said, words matter.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on November 30, 2013, 01:43:50 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 30, 2013, 08:38:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:16:08 AM
"Is it true that the Obama administration has advised US airlines to announce their presence to the Chinese government upon entering China's newly-declared Air Defense Identification Zone?"

"The position of the US is that airplanes transiting the area described have no obligation to communicate their identity and flight plan to the Chinese government."

I don't know if it's "blinking" as much as it is your usual "abundance of caution" for civilian carriers to protect themselves as much as possible.

If some hot shot Commie pinko slope pilot with a raging nationalist hard-on bumps a wing and brings down a United flight--because we all know how disciplined PLA pilots are when it comes to cat-and-mouse Cold War games in the sky--the impeachment proceedings against the POTUS would begin the next business day for failing to protect civilian aircraft by informing carriers exactly how dangerous the airspace actually was.

OBAMA LIED UNITED FLIED PEOPLE DIED

See, it's a story that practically writes itself.
I think CdM is pretty much right here.  There are no limits to Republican perfidy.  But the Chinese are even worse.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on November 30, 2013, 02:44:22 PM
Quote from: Neil on November 30, 2013, 01:43:50 PMThere are no limits to Republican perfidy.  But the Chinese are even worse.

So Chinese perfidity is even limitlesser? :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2013, 03:13:37 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 30, 2013, 08:38:55 AM
If some hot shot Commie pinko slope pilot with a raging nationalist hard-on bumps a wing and brings down a United flight--because we all know how disciplined PLA pilots are when it comes to cat-and-mouse Cold War games in the sky--the impeachment proceedings against the POTUS would begin the next business day for failing to protect civilian aircraft by informing carriers exactly how dangerous the airspace actually was.

Because, of course, no one at United ever watches CNN.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 30, 2013, 03:22:12 PM
Hopefully not while they're piloting a transoceanic flight.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 01, 2013, 10:25:02 PM
QuoteNational Zoo's 100-day-old baby panda cub named Bao Bao
Panda cub to be unveiled to public in Jan. 2014


By Wei Choot Yu Diyown
4:07 PM EST, December 1, 2013


The National Zoo's adorable baby giant panda cub got a really appropriate name today.

The 100-day-old female cub was dubbed "Bao Bao," which means "precious" or "treasure" in Mandarin Chinese.

Bao Bao is the second surviving panda cub to be born in the U.S. since China gave two pandas to the National Zoo as a state gift in 1972 after a visit by President Richard Nixon and his wife.

More than 123,000 votes were cast in an online contest to choose the panda's name.

The other names, Ling Hua (ling-HWA), Long Yun (long-YOON), Mulan (moo-LAHN) and Zhen Bao (jen-BAO), were contributed by Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai, U.S. ambassador to China Gary Locke, the China Conservation and Research Center, the National Zoo.

The winning name Bao Bao was submitted by Friends of the National Zoo, a fundraising group for the zoo.

The naming took place during a ceremony led by Smithsonian Secretary Wayne Clough, Ambassador Cui Tiankai from the People's Republic of China and Assistant Secretary Kerri-Ann Jones from the U.S. Department of State, with messages from First Lady Michelle Obama and Chinese First Lady Peng Liyuan.

Bao Bao has yet to be presented to the public. Her mother Mei Xiang (may-SHONG) has been nursing her since her birth on Aug. 23, and her official unveiling will take place in Jan. 2014.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 01, 2013, 10:28:16 PM
Bao Bao to be ground up for penis pills next week.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on December 01, 2013, 11:37:17 PM
China Has Begun Asserting Ownership of Thousands of Shipwrecks in the South China Sea

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304470504579164873258159410

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FP1-BO193A_CSHIP_G_20131201175712.jpg&hash=563e6861602151dd1bd18bbebe203dbd9dd67663)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 01, 2013, 11:43:11 PM
Considering China's maritime prowess since the Ming dynasty, they're probably all theirs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on December 02, 2013, 12:18:28 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 01, 2013, 11:43:11 PM
Considering China's maritime prowess since the Ming dynasty, they're probably all theirs.
:pinch:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 02, 2013, 12:35:09 AM
Assburgers like you always ruining jokes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on December 02, 2013, 12:53:31 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 02, 2013, 12:35:09 AM
Assburgers like you always ruining jokes.
What did I do?  :mad:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 02, 2013, 09:31:34 AM
QuoteMore Chinese Air ID Zones Predicted

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcmsimg.defensenews.com%2Fapps%2Fpbcsi.dll%2Fbilde%3FSite%3DM5%26amp%3BDate%3D20131201%26amp%3BCategory%3DDEFREG03%26amp%3BArtNo%3D312010004%26amp%3BRef%3DAR%26amp%3BMaxW%3D640%26amp%3BBorder%3D0%26amp%3BMore-Chinese-Air-ID-Zones-Predicted&hash=f7abbda54acfc6ee91564aadefb36650963be345)

TAIPEI, SEOUL AND TOKYO — China's establishment of an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) last week over the East China Sea has given the US an unexpected challenge as Vice President Joseph Biden prepares for a trip to China, Japan and South Korea beginning this week.

The trip was scheduled to address economic issues, but the Nov. 23 ADIZ announcement raised a troubling new issue for the US and allies in the region. China's ADIZ overlaps the zones of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Sources indicate China's ADIZ could be part of its larger anti-access/area-denial strategy designed to force the US military to operate farther from China's shorelines.

China might also be planning additional identification zones in the South China Sea and near contested areas along India's border, US and local sources say.

China's ADIZ might be an attempt by Beijing to improve its claim to disputed islands in the East China Sea also claimed by Japan, sources said. These islands — known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China — are under the administrative control of Japan.

Mike Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said this is part of a larger Chinese strategy beyond disputes over islands.

"This should be viewed as a part of a Chinese effort to assert greater denial capacity and eventual pre-eminence over the First Island Chain" off the coast, he said.

Green, who served on the US National Security Council from 2001 to 2005, said China's Central Military Commission in 2008 "promulgated the 'Near Sea Doctrine,' and is following it to the letter, testing the US, Japan, Philippines and others to see how far they can push."


June Teufel Dreyer, a veteran China watcher at the University of Miami, Fla., said "salami slicing" is a large part of China's strategic policy. "The salami tactic has been stunningly successful, so incremental that it's hard to decide what Japan, or any other country, should respond forcefully to. No clear 'red line' seems to have been established," Dreyer said.

The Chinese refer to it as "ling chi" or "death from a thousand cuts."

For example, China's new ADIZ overlaps not only Japan's zone to encompass disputed islands, but South Korea's zone by 20 kilometers in width and 115 kilometers in length to cover the Socotra Rock (Ieodo or Parangdo). Socotra is under South Korean control but claimed by China as the Suyan Rock.

Seoul decided to expand its ADIZ after China refused to redraw its declared zone covering the islands. Seoul's Ministry of National Defense (MND) and related government agencies are consulting on how to expand the South Korean ADIZ, drawn in 1951 by the US military, officials said.

"We're considering ways of expanding [South] Korea's air defense identification zone to include Ieodo," said Wi Yong-seop, vice spokesman for the MND.

During annual high-level defense talks between Seoul and Beijing on Nov. 28, South Korean Vice Defense Minister Baek Seung-joo demanded that Wang Guanzhong, deputy chief of the General Staff of the Chinese Army, modify China's ADIZ.

"We expressed regret over China's air defense identification zone that overlaps our zone and even includes Ieodo," Wi said after the bilateral meeting. "We made it clear that we can't recognize China's move and jurisdiction over Ieodo waters."

Amid these growing tensions, South Korea's arms procurement agency announced Nov. 27 it would push forward on procurement of four aerial refueling planes. Currently, South Korea's F-15 fighter jets are limited to flying missions over Ieodo for 20 minutes. New tankers will extend that time to 80 minutes.

"With midair refueling, the operational range and flight hours of our fighter jets will be extended to a greater extent, and we will be able to respond to potential territorial disputes with neighboring countries," a spokesman for South Korea's Defense Acquisition Program Administration said.

In the southern part of China's ADIZ, which overlaps Taiwan's ADIZ, Beijing was careful not to cover Taiwan's Pengjia Island, which is manned by a Taiwan Coast Guard unit.

"The exclusion of the Pengjia Islet indicates that mainland China respects our stance," said Chinese Nationalist Party legislator Ting Shou-chung. Relations across the Taiwan Strait have been improving over the past several years.

"We're all waiting for the other shoe to drop," said Peter Dutton, an ADIZ expert and director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College.

"We're looking to see how China will now behave," he said. "Hopefully, they will not try to fly inside the airspace over the Senkaku Islands, since that is under Japanese sovereign administration and would therefore be a highly provocative act."

Dutton downplayed fears of another civilian airliner being shot down, as was the case in 1983, when a Soviet Su-15 fighter shot down a South Korean airliner that strayed into Soviet airspace, killing 269.

In 1988, a US Navy Ticonderoga-class cruiser, the USS Vincennes, shot down Iran Air Flight 655 over the Arabian Gulf, killing 290. The Vincennes mistook the airliner for an Iranian F-14 Tomcat fighter jet.

"For civilian aircraft, this is really not a major issue," he said. "Those aircraft almost always file flight plans in advance and follow the directions of ground controllers. This means that their route through the ADIZ would already by pre-approved, and this is not a problem for the Chinese."

Dutton said the real concern is the freedom of military flights.

"But both the US and Japan have said they do not intend to alter their behavior or to abide by the ADIZ procedures, no matter what they are, for military flights," he said.

In 2001, a Chinese J-8 fighter collided with a US Navy EP-3 Aries signals intelligence aircraft near Hainan Island. Bonnie Glaser, a China specialist at CSIS, said she does not expect China to "back down" from its ADIZ policy, and anticipates more intercepts by Chinese fighters of US reconnaissance aircraft.

"The risk of accident will undoubtedly increase, especially [with] fighters [flown at] Mach 1 by young, inexperienced pilots," she said.

Alessio Patalano, a lecturer in the Department of War Studies, King's College, London, said the Chinese move might have been prompted by the current tensions in the East China Sea, and recent discussions in Japan about how the military can deal with Chinese drones and manned patrol aircraft that intrude into Japan's air defense space.

"Chinese authorities are seeking to force Japan to accept the existence of the dispute challenging Japanese control of the islands," Patalano said. "The problem with this is that Chinese authorities are using military and paramilitary tools to force a change of status quo to what is a political issue.

"Of course, a more robust response could see the US and Japan deploy air assets in the overlapping areas of the ADIZ to challenge the Chinese position," Patalano said. "US and Japanese aircraft flying together in the Chinese ADIZ would present a serious dilemma to Chinese authority."

Green said the US should at least send a "joint US-Japan patrol into the area to prove the point that coercion does not work."

The announcement of the ADIZ also affects the Chinese military, likely adding to the Air Force's status over the traditional role the Army has played as national defender.[/size]
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 02, 2013, 08:02:36 PM
6 P-8's going to Japan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 02, 2013, 08:11:05 PM
What's a P-8?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 02, 2013, 08:14:13 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 02, 2013, 08:11:05 PM
What's a P-8?

Anti-sub plane. Replacement for the p-3.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 02, 2013, 09:25:55 PM
Japan needs to get some nuclear-tipped missiles, ASAP.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 02, 2013, 09:47:11 PM
Yay, Korea.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/12/02/no-end-in-sight-for-chinese-air-restriction-zone

QuoteNo End in Sight for Chinese Air Restriction Zone
FAA punts to State Dept. on guidance for commercial flights while analysts worry about busy, tense airspace

By Paul D. Shinkman
December 2, 2013 RSS Feed Print

Tensions are boiling in the East China Sea and will likely continue as South Korea becomes the latest nation to formally protest new Chinese air restriction rules.

The Republic of Korea announced Monday it would likely expand its own "Aerial Defense Identification Zone" to include part of the region near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, over which China created an ADIZ last week. This follows Japanese outrage and confusion over whether the U.S., its staunch ally, warned its commercial pilots to avoid the region.


Vice President Joe Biden continues his trip to Japan and China, and eventually South Korea in an attempt to prevent tempers from flaring further. International analysts, however, say diffusing the air restriction zone fallout will be a long game.

"I don't think the Chinese will retract it under any circumstances," says Bonnie Glaser, a China expert with the D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The last thing China wants to be seen is as bowing to pressure from foreigners."


The next steps, then, are ensuring a framework exists for regional countries to hammer out their differences in case of a crisis, such as the 2001 "Hainan Island incident." This accidental collision between a U.S. surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter jet killed the Chinese pilot and brought the U.S. and China to the brink of conflict. Cooler heads eventually prevailed upon realizing the potential international ramifications of breaking relations.

But that conclusion may not be so easily achieved in a row between the Japanese and Chinese, two nations with historic grudges that experts say have a difficult time empathizing with the other.

The Chinese government on Monday urged Japan to "face and seriously introspect" its history of invasion, according to state-sponsored news service Xinhua. Monday marks the 70th anniversary of the Japanese declarations of war that contributed to the outbreak of World War II.

"We urge again the Japanese side to face and seriously introspect its invasion history, honor its words and seriously implement its international responsibilities, so as to gain trust from its Asian neighboring countries and the international community," said Hong Lei, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry.

The Japanese foreign ministry expressed outrage over the weekend, following reports that the U.S. government instructed commercial pilots to cede to the Chinese rules.

"The U.S. action may represent Washington's intention to be interpreted either way, giving consideration to both commercial carriers demanding the safety of flights and the Japanese government," a ministry official told Japanese newspaper the Asahi Shimbun.


A spokesman from the Federal Aviation Administration declined to comment Monday, deferring instead to the State Department, when asked what guidance the civil aviation organization would give to commercial airliners.

The State Department doubled back on its position over the weekend.

"The U.S. government generally expects that U.S. carriers operating internationally will operate consistent with [Notices to Airmen] issued by foreign countries," said a statement issued by the department Saturday. "Our expectation of operations by U.S. carriers consistent with NOTAMs does not indicate U.S. government acceptance of China's requirements for operating in the newly declared ADIZ."

The key element in adherence to these new Chinese rules lies in whether the flight is bound for mainland China. Secretary of State John Kerry was quick to point out days after the Chinese announced the ADIZ that all aircraft are already subject to these same rules if entering another nation's airspace to land.

Route maps published by U.S. commercial carriers such as US Airways and Delta show very few trips that would take a commercial jet through the region cordoned off by China's air restriction zone.

But the region remains rife with military aircraft. Japan scrambled F-15s hours after the Chinese established the air defense zone as a show of force. The U.S. flew two B-52 bombers through days later.

"The chances of collision are probably greater between a Chinese aircraft and a Japanese aircraft," says Glaser, the senior adviser for Asia at CSIS. "Particularly on the Chinese side, you may have a young, inexperienced pilot, particularly when it comes to evasive tactics and maneuvers."

Two of President Barack Obama's closest former advisers pointed to the Hainan incident on talk show appearances Sunday.

"You have obviously major powers there, China, Korea and Japan. China has unilaterally undertaken a set of steps here which instead of lowering tensions, increase tensions," said Tom Donilon, who served as a counselor to Obama for national security matters since his 2008 campaign, and formally as national security advisor from 2010 to 2013.

"They really do present the prospect of the possibility of miscalculation and mistake," he said, while speaking on ABC News' This Week, adding of the Hainan incident, "it's that risk of miscalculation and mistake that we need to be very concerned about going forward here."

Former National Security Agency and CIA Director Michael Hayden told Fox News Sunday China's move to establish the ADIZ is "dangerous and dumb."

"They treat the South China Sea or they want to treat the South China Sea the way you and I treat Lake Michigan. No one is going to accept that," said Hayden.


The U.S. barely capped the boiling tensions following the 2001 collision before it spun out of control, he said.

"This is bad from the Chinese perspective. I really don't understand why they did it," Hayden said.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Queequeg on December 02, 2013, 09:57:34 PM
So is China doing this entirely for domestic political consumption?  They're not making any friends. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 02, 2013, 10:00:17 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on December 02, 2013, 09:57:34 PM
So is China doing this entirely for domestic political consumption?  They're not making any friends.

I'm sure there's a substantial portion of that, yes.  Not so much the general populace--that's just a bonus--but for the Party. 
After all, the CCP plenary was barely a month ago, and the Party's a bit sad over the economic slowdown.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 02, 2013, 10:05:21 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on December 02, 2013, 09:57:34 PM
So is China doing this entirely for domestic political consumption?  They're not making any friends.

I suspect lust for oil and other raw materials plays a part.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 03, 2013, 12:02:08 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 02, 2013, 08:11:05 PM
What's a P-8?

Drink V8, wait a few hours.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 03, 2013, 01:54:53 AM
So.... Has this gone according to plan for china? Or have they embarrassed themselves, not expecting the good guys to call their bluff?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 03, 2013, 02:30:25 AM
Quote from: Queequeg on December 02, 2013, 09:57:34 PM
So is China doing this entirely for domestic political consumption?  They're not making any friends.

They seem to be studying Pre-World War I Germany for how to make enemies and scare people.

I'm not opposed to China getting some of those islands, though I'm thinking of a different China.  Putting the line so close to the Philippines is insane though.  Why not push it to Hawaii while they are at it?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 03, 2013, 11:49:47 AM
My wife's comment on this "I'm glad I'm Canadian."

Favourite Weibo comment so far "we should totally go to war over this. If we win, we get the island; if we lose we get a new government."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 03, 2013, 12:23:15 PM
The Vietnamese and Phillipines lines also appear to be unreasonable, the one from Brunei is quite amusing as well.
Of course, they aren't rattling sabers the way Chinese is.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on December 03, 2013, 12:25:11 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 03, 2013, 12:23:15 PM
The Vietnamese and Phillipines lines also appear to be unreasonable, the one from Brunei is quite amusing as well.
Of course, they aren't rattling sabers the way Chinese is.

It is, unfortunately, a very common (and often successful) negotiating technique - ask for way more than you'll ever get, so that in the final negotiation you'll get what you really wanted.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 03, 2013, 01:18:43 PM
Never ask for something that you cannot take if the answer is no.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 03, 2013, 01:20:47 PM
For such a polite society, the Chinese have a habit of losing perspective and nuance when it comes to certain hot button topics in diplomacy; I once saw an ADIZ-style airspace map with the line going straight through Tokyo :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 03, 2013, 02:26:34 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 03, 2013, 02:30:25 AM
Quote from: Queequeg on December 02, 2013, 09:57:34 PM
So is China doing this entirely for domestic political consumption?  They're not making any friends.

They seem to be studying Pre-World War I Germany for how to make enemies and scare people.

I'm not opposed to China getting some of those islands, though I'm thinking of a different China.  Putting the line so close to the Philippines is insane though.  Why not push it to Hawaii while they are at it?

that's the next phase
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 04, 2013, 09:18:45 AM
"Herro...hey, are you done with that?  Can we borrow it?"

QuoteArmy Investigates China Spy Incident ... That Involves No Secrets
Posted By Gordon Lubold and Shane Harris Tuesday, December 3, 2013 - 3:50 PM


No secrets were spilled. And all of the documents in question are publicly available. But the U.S. Army has nonetheless launched an internal review of its administrative practices after members of a Chinese military delegation began asking for U.S. government manuals a bit too aggressively during a September visit to an American base.

The so-called 15-6 investigation reflects the growing unease within some quarters of the U.S. military and the broader American national security community about how best to engage with China's People's Liberation Army. In recent years, the foundation of the relationship has been an approach best described as you-show-me-yours-and-I'll-show-you-mine. But some are questioning that path, especially now that China has sparked an international incident when it declared a so-called "Air Defense Identification Zone" over disputed territory late last month. Vice President Joe Biden called for that declaration to be taken back on Monday. He is expected to visit Beijing later in the week.

At issue in the Army investigation is the behavior of some members of a seven-person Chinese delegation that travelled to the U.S. in late September. The group, led by Maj. Gen. Chen Dongdeng, the PLA's director of so-called "military engagement," visited the Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas as part of a two-stop visit that also included Washington, D.C. The goal at Leavenworth: to "participate in an informational exchange" on U.S. Army doctrine and "operational theory," according to an internal Army news story produced at the time. But the Army's Training and Doctrine Command, or TRADOC, which hosted the delegation, never sought the approval of the Army's G-2 intelligence directorate and bureaucratic feathers got ruffled as a result.

It might have ended there. But during the two-day visit, Dongdeng and members of his delegation asked repeatedly for copies of U.S. Army doctrine documents. Although the documents are "open source" -- meaning they are available to the public -- it was the pointed way in which the Chinese general sought them that raised eyebrows and came off as awkward, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

The Army isn't commenting on the conduct of the visitors. An Army official would only acknowledge that the service is conducting an internal review of its administrative practices because of the way in which the visit was handled within the Army.

"What we're looking into is the process of foreign delegations coming to military posts," Army spokesman Lt. Col. Don Peters told Foreign Policy. "We're looking for internal administrative procedures on how to better to do this, how we can do things better."

A Chinese spokesman for the delegation was quoted in the Fort Leavenworth Lamp saying the exchange of "operational theory and doctrine" during the visit is "very important to allow our two militaries to achieve even deeper understanding of each other's military, which helps increase mutual understanding and build mutual trust."

In 2000, Congress passed legislation that limits the ways that the U.S. government can help the PLA by restricting certain "mil-to-mil" contact. The law prevents any contact at all if it poses a national security risk "due to inappropriate exposure." The law lists 12 areas, including information on "force projection" and nuclear, logistical or chemical and biological defense operations. It also restricts mil-to-mil contact on surveillance and reconnaissance operations, joint warfighting experiments and "other activities related to transformations in warfare." Since the law was passed, there has been considerable debate on how to interpret the 12 parameters, or how to ensure that the relationship between the U.S. military and the PLA can continue but stay within the confines of the law.

Bonnie Glaser, a senior adviser on Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said she was not aware of any mil-to-mil engagements recently in which the Chinese "stepped outside of boundaries." On the contrary, she said, most have been successful.  "We're not seeing a pattern of Chinese behavior like this," she said.

At least not from members of the Beijing government. In the private sector, however, it's not uncommon for Chinese business executives who are visiting American companies to attempt to split off from their guided tours and pilfer through filing cabinets or try to log into company computers, according to a former U.S. counterintelligence official. "It's like teens shoplifting. You can be supervised by a minder. Then someone causes a distraction, and another goes off to a keyboard and starts looking at something he's not supposed to," the official said.

However, the former official added that it would be rare for Chinese military officials to try to obtain secrets this way during an official visit to the United States. And if they were caught, there would be some form of official protest and the delegation would not be invited back.

When it comes to the mil-to-mil relationship between the U.S. and China, there are believers and and there are doubters. Proponents say it's a way for the U.S. to gain insight into the Chinese military and minimizes the kind of missteps and "miscalculations" that could lead to bigger problems. Skeptics, however, say there is futility in building bridges with the Chinese in the hopes the it will lead to a more transparent relationship.

A reportfrom the Congressional Research Service framed the issue of the U.S.-China mil-to-mil relationship as one on which Congress should remain vigilant. "Skeptics and proponents of military exchanges with the PRC have debated whether the contacts achieve results in U.S. objectives and whether the contacts contribute to the PLA's warfighting capability that might harm U.S. and allied security interests," according to the Nov. 20 report. "Some have argued about whether the value that U.S. officials place on the contacts overly extends leverage to the PLA."

U.S. officials have repeatedly singled out China as a major source of espionage directed at U.S. corporations, government agencies, the military, and the Defense Department. In March, then National Security Adviser Tom Donilon said Chinese theft of U.S. business secrets was "a growing challenge to our economic relationship with China" and a "key point of concern and discussion with China at all levels of our governments."

In 2011, a report from the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive marked the first time that U.S. officials had publicly and on record blamed China as the source of so much industrial spying, calling the country the source of "the world's most active and persistent perpetrators of economic espionage."

The report stated, "China's intelligence services, as well as private companies and other entities, frequently seek to exploit Chinese citizens or persons with family ties to China who can use their insider access to corporate networks to steal trade secrets using removable media devices or e-mail."

But that report dealt mostly with cyber espionage -- Chinese spies hacking into U.S. computers and stealing information. The Ft. Leavenworth incident apparently involved no classified or even sensitive material. Which makes the fuss about it even tougher to fathom. 

U.S. officials and lawmakers have been especially sensitive to potential espionage by another source in China--Huawei, the China-based telecommuniations giant. Late last month, Robert Menendez, the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Commitee, and Dianne Feinstein, the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, wrote to top administration officials "to express our concerns" over reports that Huawei plans to build a broadband network in South Korea. Lawmakers and intelligence officials have accused the company of acting as a proxy for the Chinese military and intellience services.

The senators asked Secetary of State John Kerry, Secreatry of Defense Chuck Hagel, and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper for their "assessment of potential threats and security concerns" about Huawei's work in South Korea. The senators are concerned that having Huawei equipment in the networks of an ally that's also a bulkwark against North Korea could compromise U.S. national security. The letter was first reported in the Daily Beast.

Huawe's CEO said recently that he's giving up on the U.S. telecom market in the wake of persistent spying allegations. But its foreign business has been thriving. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 04, 2013, 09:23:09 AM
Meanwhile, back in the real world...as reported earlier...

QuoteThe Navy is sending "sub-killing planes" to Asia. FP's Dan Lamothe: "Tensions between the United States, Japan and China took a new turn Monday night when Vice President Joe Biden asked China to rescind the air defense identification zone it established Nov. 23 over contested islands in the East China Sea. Things could soon get even more interesting, however: the Navy's new P-8A Poseidon planes are arriving in Japan this week, offering the ability to destroy submarines, interdict ships and conduct surveillance on open seas. The U.S. military insists the deployment of the P-8s has nothing to do with current friction between China, which has increased since the Asian giant created an area off its coast that it says other militaries must seek permission to use. In fact, the Pentagon first announced the deployment of planes to Kadena Air Base on Okinawa in October as part of a broader realignment that will also eventually include the deployment of more MV-22 Ospreys and F-35B Joint Strike Fighters from the Marine Corps and R-Q4 Global Hawk surveillance drones operated by the Air Force."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: 11B4V on December 04, 2013, 11:00:27 AM
Quoteelegation asked repeatedly for copies of U.S. Army doctrine documents.

Go ahead and give it to them. We dont follow them anyway.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on December 04, 2013, 11:06:02 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on December 04, 2013, 11:00:27 AM
Quoteelegation asked repeatedly for copies of U.S. Army doctrine documents.

Go ahead and give it to them. We dont follow them anyway.

No shit. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 04, 2013, 11:31:53 AM
Quote from: derspiess on December 04, 2013, 11:06:02 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on December 04, 2013, 11:00:27 AM
Quoteelegation asked repeatedly for copies of U.S. Army doctrine documents.

Go ahead and give it to them. We dont follow them anyway.

No shit.

Honestly, don't see the big deal, either.  I'm sure there's some counterinsurgency stuff in there, but I think the PLA and the PAPF have that stuff down pretty well as it is.   :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 04, 2013, 11:49:50 AM
That story sounded more like pencilnecks at Army intel getting all worked up about TRADOC filing the wrong forms than anything else.  The China angle was just used to get it bumped up the Pentagon food chain.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2013, 11:56:43 AM
Disagree.  Aggressive manual requesting is a threat to our way of life.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on December 04, 2013, 12:45:12 PM
So, Biden went to China and told a group of young people to challenge their government.

I suppose its true that only Nixon could go to China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on December 04, 2013, 12:50:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2013, 11:56:43 AM
Disagree.  Aggressive manual requesting is a threat to our way of life.

No aid or comfort or manuals to the enemy!  No way!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2013, 01:02:23 PM
Unless they ask in a really mellow way.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 04, 2013, 01:44:38 PM
Little. Mellow. Different.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 04, 2013, 02:12:54 PM
 :lol: stop stealing my schtick.  And improving on it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: 11B4V on December 04, 2013, 02:13:27 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 04, 2013, 12:50:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2013, 11:56:43 AM
Disagree.  Aggressive manual requesting is a threat to our way of life.

No aid or comfort or manuals to the enemy!  No way!

Just google them   :rolleyes:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 04, 2013, 02:14:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2013, 11:56:43 AM
Disagree.  Aggressive manual requesting is a threat to our way of life.

:lol:

... but yeah, at the very least they should have the decency to use subterfuge when obtaining your manuals.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 04, 2013, 02:15:00 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2013, 02:14:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2013, 11:56:43 AM
Disagree.  Aggressive manual requesting is a threat to our way of life.

:lol:

... but yeah, at the very least they should have the decency to use subterfuge when obtaining your manuals.

Like putting something over it first, and then walking away with it. All stealthy-like.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: 11B4V on December 04, 2013, 02:17:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 04, 2013, 02:14:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 04, 2013, 11:56:43 AM
Disagree.  Aggressive manual requesting is a threat to our way of life.

:lol:

... but yeah, at the very least they should have the decency to use subterfuge when obtaining your manuals.

http://armypubs.army.mil/doctrine/DR_pubs/dr_a/pdf/fm3_21x8.pdf

If the PLA hasnt figured out they can google army FM's they have bigger issues to worry about.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 04, 2013, 02:19:13 PM
Maybe they wanted an autographed one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 06, 2013, 12:46:31 PM
Recent rumours in the Xiacob household and apparently also current in China:

Back when the Bo Xilai arrest went down, Zhou Yongkang (his patron and head of internal security at the time) was trying to pull off a bona fide coup and have Xi assassinated. It's all just rumours, of course, but they're being spurred in part by the recent suicide of the (now former) mayor of Chengdu (a Zhou Yongkang appointee in his capacity as Premier of Sichuan); second time lucky apparently, first time he swallowed broken glass but survived, now he jumped off a tall building to successfully kill himself.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on December 06, 2013, 01:04:14 PM
I had Szechuan for lunch a few days ago & was burping it up all day :mellow:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 06, 2013, 01:13:11 PM
Quote from: derspiess on December 06, 2013, 01:04:14 PM
I had Szechuan for lunch a few days ago & was burping it up all day :mellow:

What did you have?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 06, 2013, 02:54:56 PM
Broken glass
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 06, 2013, 03:00:44 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 06, 2013, 02:54:56 PM
Broken glass

Feels like you're walking on, walking on...?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 06, 2013, 03:01:23 PM
He's walking on a rock.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2013, 03:02:08 PM
Lay off the gimp jokes.  :mad:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 06, 2013, 03:03:10 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2013, 03:02:08 PM
Lay off the gimp jokes.  :mad:

Don't mess with a Yissionary man :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 08, 2013, 06:45:00 AM
South Koreans expand their own zone as expected.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/08/21812689-south-korea-counters-chinas-air-defense-zone-by-expanding-its-own-over-submerged-reef?lite
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 08, 2013, 06:01:22 PM
More retroactive rumours -

I don't know if you remember the brief rumour - it was only out for about a day or two before it disappeared again - about tanks in the streets of Beijing late at night, right after Bo Xilai was detained. Apparently, the People's Armed Police (which answered to Zhou Yongkang) was moving to demand Bo's release and the PLA moved to squelch what was essentially a coup attempt.

Also, a bit prior to that if you recall the initial wave of strong, highly publicized, and occasionally violent protests the set off the current round of tension about the disputed islands with Japan? The ones were Mao-posters were featured prominently? Current rumours hold that they were orchestrated by Zhou Yongkang in the hope that they would grow big and turn against the government, preventing Xi's ascension to his post.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 08, 2013, 07:50:59 PM
My my my, that Chinese internet underground has a lively imagination.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 09, 2013, 12:48:00 AM
In other news, the Global Times say that the air pollution in China is beneficial because it makes it harder for enemy nations to accurately aim any missile attacks.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 09, 2013, 12:49:33 AM
 :lol:

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on December 09, 2013, 04:08:58 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 08, 2013, 06:01:22 PM
More retroactive rumours -

I don't know if you remember the brief rumour - it was only out for about a day or two before it disappeared again - about tanks in the streets of Beijing late at night, right after Bo Xilai was detained. Apparently, the People's Armed Police (which answered to Zhou Yongkang) was moving to demand Bo's release and the PLA moved to squelch what was essentially a coup attempt.

Also, a bit prior to that if you recall the initial wave of strong, highly publicized, and occasionally violent protests the set off the current round of tension about the disputed islands with Japan? The ones were Mao-posters were featured prominently? Current rumours hold that they were orchestrated by Zhou Yongkang in the hope that they would grow big and turn against the government, preventing Xi's ascension to his post.
These rumors remind me of Soviet Union.  The absence of credible official accounts made every crazy rumor credible in the minds of many, and they spread like wildfire.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 09, 2013, 05:44:46 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 08, 2013, 06:01:22 PM
More retroactive rumours -

I don't know if you remember the brief rumour - it was only out for about a day or two before it disappeared again - about tanks in the streets of Beijing late at night, right after Bo Xilai was detained. Apparently, the People's Armed Police (which answered to Zhou Yongkang) was moving to demand Bo's release and the PLA moved to squelch what was essentially a coup attempt.

Also, a bit prior to that if you recall the initial wave of strong, highly publicized, and occasionally violent protests the set off the current round of tension about the disputed islands with Japan? The ones were Mao-posters were featured prominently? Current rumours hold that they were orchestrated by Zhou Yongkang in the hope that they would grow big and turn against the government, preventing Xi's ascension to his post.

It is customary to leak negative information about major criminals before their trials. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 09, 2013, 05:45:27 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 09, 2013, 12:48:00 AM
In other news, the Global Times say that the air pollution in China is beneficial because it makes it harder for enemy nations to accurately aim any missile attacks.

Never heard this one before  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Brazen on December 09, 2013, 07:29:15 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 09, 2013, 05:45:27 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 09, 2013, 12:48:00 AM
In other news, the Global Times say that the air pollution in China is beneficial because it makes it harder for enemy nations to accurately aim any missile attacks.

Never heard this one before  :lol:
Now that's hysterical  :D

I feel some investigative journalism coming on...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 09, 2013, 11:36:06 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 09, 2013, 04:08:58 AM
These rumors remind me of Soviet Union.  The absence of credible official accounts made every crazy rumor credible in the minds of many, and they spread like wildfire.

Yeah for sure, and like Mono says I'm sure at least some of them are spread deliberately as well.

Some of them turn out to be true though. For example when Wang Lijun tried to defect that news circulated in the rumour-sphere for a few days before the news picked it up; similarly, most of the substance of his revelations, the move against Bo, and the charges against him all circulated for a while prior to the press picking it up.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 09, 2013, 11:39:10 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 09, 2013, 05:44:46 AMIt is customary to leak negative information about major criminals before their trials.

Definitely; so I guess the Epoch Times were right back when they reported that Zhou Yongkang was on his way out back when Bo had just been detained.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 13, 2013, 12:20:55 PM
QuoteThe USS Cowpens / AP
     
BY: Bill Gertz    
December 13, 2013 5:00 am

A Chinese naval vessel tried to force a U.S. guided missile warship to stop in international waters recently, causing a tense military standoff in the latest case of Chinese maritime harassment, according to defense officials.

The guided missile cruiser USS Cowpens, which recently took part in disaster relief operations in the Philippines, was confronted by Chinese warships in the South China Sea near Beijing's new aircraft carrier Liaoning, according to officials familiar with the incident.

"On December 5th, while lawfully operating in international waters in the South China Sea, USS Cowpens and a PLA Navy vessel had an encounter that required maneuvering to avoid a collision," a Navy official said.

"This incident underscores the need to ensure the highest standards of professional seamanship, including communications between vessels, to mitigate the risk of an unintended incident or mishap."

A State Department official said the U.S. government issued protests to China in both Washington and Beijing in both diplomatic and military channels.

The Cowpens was conducting surveillance of the Liaoning at the time. The carrier had recently sailed from the port of Qingdao on the northern Chinese coast into the South China Sea.

According to the officials, the run-in began after a Chinese navy vessel sent a hailing warning and ordered the Cowpens to stop. The cruiser continued on its course and refused the order because it was operating in international waters.

Then a Chinese tank landing ship sailed in front of the Cowpens and stopped, forcing the Cowpens to abruptly change course in what the officials said was a dangerous maneuver.

According to the officials, the Cowpens was conducting a routine operation done to exercise its freedom of navigation near the Chinese carrier when the incident occurred about a week ago.

The encounter was the type of incident that senior Pentagon officials recently warned could take place as a result of heightened tensions in the region over China's declaration of an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea.

Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently called China's new air defense zone destabilizing and said it increased the risk of a military "miscalculation."

China's military forces in recent days have dispatched Su-30 and J-11 fighter jets, as well as KJ-2000 airborne warning and control aircraft, to the zone to monitor the airspace that is used frequently by U.S. and Japanese military surveillance aircraft.

The United States has said it does not recognize China's ADIZ, as has Japan's government.

Two U.S. B-52 bombers flew through the air zone last month but were not shadowed by Chinese interceptor jets.

Chinese naval and air forces also have been pressing Japan in the East China Sea over Tokyo's purchase a year ago of several uninhabited Senkaku Islands located north of Taiwan and south of Okinawa.

China is claiming the islands, which it calls the Diaoyu. They are believed to contain large undersea reserves of natural gas and oil.

The Liaoning, China's first carrier that was refitted from an old Soviet carrier, and four warships recently conducted their first training maneuvers in the South China Sea. The carrier recently docked at the Chinese naval port of Hainan on the South China Sea.

Defense officials have said China's imposition of the ADIZ is aimed primarily at curbing surveillance flights in the zone, which China's military regards as a threat to its military secrets.

The U.S. military conducts surveillance flights with EP-3 aircraft and long-range RQ-4 Global Hawk drones.

In addition to the Liaoning, Chinese warships in the flotilla include two missile destroyers, the Shenyang and the Shijiazhuang, and two missile frigates, the Yantai and the Weifang.

Rick Fisher, a China military affairs expert, said it is likely that the Chinese deliberately staged the incident as part of a strategy of pressuring the United States.

"They can afford to lose an LST [landing ship] as they have about 27 of them, but they are also usually armed with one or more twin 37 millimeter cannons, which at close range could heavily damage a lightly armored U.S. Navy destroyer," said Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center.

Most Chinese Navy large combat ships would be out-ranged by the 127-millimeter guns deployed on U.S. cruisers, except China's Russian-made Sovremenny-class ships and Beijing's new Type 052D destroyers that are armed with 130-millimeter guns.

The encounter appears to be part of a pattern of Chinese political signaling that it will not accept the presence of American military power in its East Asian theater of influence, Fisher said.

"China has spent the last 20 years building up its Navy and now feels that it can use it to obtain its political objectives," he said.

Fisher said that since early 2012 China has gone on the offensive in both the South China and East China Seas.

"In this early stage of using its newly acquired naval power, China is posturing and bullying, but China is also looking for a fight, a battle that will cow the Americans, the Japanese, and the Filipinos," he said.

To maintain stability in the face of Chinese military assertiveness, Fisher said the United States and Japan should seek an armed peace in the region by heavily fortifying the Senkaku Islands and the rest of the island chain they are part of.

"The U.S. and Japan should also step up their rearmament of the Philippines," Fisher said.

The Cowpens incident is the most recent example of Chinese naval aggressiveness toward U.S. ships.

The U.S. intelligence-gathering ship, USNS Impeccable, came under Chinese naval harassment from a China Maritime Surveillance ship, part of Beijing's quasi-military maritime patrol craft, in June.

During that incident, the Chinese ship warned the Navy ship it was operating illegally despite sailing in international waters. The Chinese demanded that the ship first obtain permission before sailing in the area that was more than 100 miles from China's coast.

The U.S. military has been stepping up surveillance of China's naval forces, including the growing submarine fleet, as part of the U.S. policy of rebalancing forces to the Pacific.

The Impeccable was harassed in March 2009 by five Chinese ships that followed it and sprayed it with water hoses in an effort to thwart its operations.

A second spy ship, the USNS Victorious, also came under Chinese maritime harassment several years ago.

Adm. Samuel Locklear, when asked last summer about increased Chinese naval activities near Guam and Hawaii in retaliation for U.S. ship-based spying on China, said the dispute involves different interpretations of controlled waters.

Locklear said in a meeting with reporters in July, "We believe the U.S. position is that those activities are less constrained than what the Chinese believe."

China is seeking to control large areas of international waters—claiming they are part of its United Nations-defined economic exclusion zone—that Locklear said cover "most of the major sea lines of communication" near China and are needed to remain free for trade and shipping.

Locklear, who is known for his conciliatory views toward the Chinese military, sought to play down recent disputes. When asked if the Chinese activities were troubling, he said: "I would say it's not provocative certainly. I'd say that in the Asia-Pacific, in the areas that are closer to the Chinese homeland, that we have been able to conduct operations around each other in a very professional and increasingly professional manner."

The Pentagon and U.S. Pacific Command have sought to develop closer ties to the Chinese military as part of the Obama administration's Asia pivot policies.

However, China's military has shown limited interest in closer ties.

China's state-controlled news media regularly report that the United States is seeking to defeat China by encircling the country with enemies while promoting dissidents within who seek the ouster of the communist regime.

The Obama administration has denied it is seeking to "contain" China and has insisted it wants continued close economic and diplomatic relations.

President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to seek a new type of major power relationship during a summit in California earlier this year. However, the exact nature of the new relationship remains unclear.


   
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on December 13, 2013, 12:25:35 PM
Will get out of control, lucky to live through it, etc.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 13, 2013, 12:47:58 PM
Why are they talking about warship weaponry ranges by referencing the guns?  If guided missile cruisers and guided missile destroyers start fighting, I would rather imagine that they'll use guided missiles.

Still, hopefully the Chinese carrier sinks with massive loss of life.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on December 13, 2013, 12:49:12 PM
Turns out the carrier really does float.  Any news on whether planes can talk off and land from its deck?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 13, 2013, 12:58:47 PM
Any threads on Paradox condemning the US for sailing into Chinese waters?  :D
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 13, 2013, 01:03:59 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 13, 2013, 12:49:12 PM
Turns out the carrier really does float.  Any news on whether planes can talk off and land from its deck?

They've spent a shitload of time and money to get those shitty J-15s to get it off the deck.  Twice.  No landing attempts yet, I believe.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on December 13, 2013, 01:08:03 PM
They oughtta try some old Yak-38s.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on December 13, 2013, 01:10:14 PM
Honest question, because I don't know the answer:

What would the USN do if the roles were reversed?  That is a PLA ship is approaching a US carrier in international waters, not listening to requests to turn around?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 13, 2013, 01:14:05 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 13, 2013, 01:10:14 PM
Honest question, because I don't know the answer:

What would the USN do if the roles were reversed?  That is a PLA ship is approaching a US carrier in international waters, not listening to requests to turn around?

Depends. Is the US open for business that day or not?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 13, 2013, 01:36:38 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 13, 2013, 01:10:14 PM
Honest question, because I don't know the answer:

What would the USN do if the roles were reversed?  That is a PLA ship is approaching a US carrier in international waters, not listening to requests to turn around?

This is the big problem with Chinese crisis management in the rush :  they have no real operational experience in the cat-and-mouse bullshit that goes on on the high seas.  The USN has decades of experience dancing with the Russians, and it's reflected in everything from JO training to operational guidelines.  They don't sweat this stuff.  Inexperienced Chinese officers under immense political pressure to "do the right thing", though?  That's when things go wrong.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 13, 2013, 01:41:19 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 13, 2013, 01:10:14 PM
Honest question, because I don't know the answer:

What would the USN do if the roles were reversed?  That is a PLA ship is approaching a US carrier in international waters, not listening to requests to turn around?

Soviets ships used to tail carrier groups all the time.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on December 13, 2013, 02:47:13 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 13, 2013, 01:36:38 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 13, 2013, 01:10:14 PM
Honest question, because I don't know the answer:

What would the USN do if the roles were reversed?  That is a PLA ship is approaching a US carrier in international waters, not listening to requests to turn around?

This is the big problem with Chinese crisis management in the rush :  they have no real operational experience in the cat-and-mouse bullshit that goes on on the high seas.  The USN has decades of experience dancing with the Russians, and it's reflected in everything from JO training to operational guidelines.  They don't sweat this stuff.  Inexperienced Chinese officers under immense political pressure to "do the right thing", though?  That's when things go wrong.

Good point.  Hadnt thought of it that way.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 13, 2013, 02:58:19 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 13, 2013, 02:47:13 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 13, 2013, 01:36:38 PM
This is the big problem with Chinese crisis management in the rush :  they have no real operational experience in the cat-and-mouse bullshit that goes on on the high seas.  The USN has decades of experience dancing with the Russians, and it's reflected in everything from JO training to operational guidelines.  They don't sweat this stuff.  Inexperienced Chinese officers under immense political pressure to "do the right thing", though?  That's when things go wrong.

Good point.  Hadnt thought of it that way.

Neither did the J-8 pilot that got his ass splashed in 2001.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.navycthistory.com%2Fimages%2Fwideturns_big.jpg&hash=bb89b31d72ad591b8558d35b58a2f5aec297f240)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on December 13, 2013, 03:22:09 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 13, 2013, 02:58:19 PM
Neither did the J-8 pilot that got his ass splashed in 2001.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.navycthistory.com%2Fimages%2Fwideturns_big.jpg&hash=bb89b31d72ad591b8558d35b58a2f5aec297f240)

Did we ever send his insurance company a bill for repairs?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on December 13, 2013, 04:00:22 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 13, 2013, 01:10:14 PM
Honest question, because I don't know the answer:

What would the USN do if the roles were reversed?  That is a PLA ship is approaching a US carrier in international waters, not listening to requests to turn around?

As others have noted, this happened all the time.  The other ship has to heed the Law of the Sea when maneuvering around a task force (lest it run afoul of the Law of gross Tonnage), but the standard way of dealing with unwanted pickets was just to speed up.  Those AGIs couldn't maintain any kind of speed, nor can their US counterparts.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 13, 2013, 08:56:48 PM
Hopefully this sort of thing will get Japan to arm with atomic weapons.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 15, 2013, 10:10:03 PM
If any of you care about Chinese rumours and the attempts to read the tea leaves, the Epoch Times has a pretty good summary of events thus far; albeit with the usual heavy focus on Falun Gong - http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/393118-reporting-zhou-yongkang-s-arrest-a-primer-on-the-power-struggle-in-beijing/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 15, 2013, 11:09:39 PM
I've read the Chinese government is upset that hardly anyone in china gives a shit about the moon lander despite the media bombardment about it :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 15, 2013, 11:14:34 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 15, 2013, 10:10:03 PM
If any of you care about Chinese rumours and the attempts to read the tea leaves, the Epoch Times has a pretty good summary of events thus far; albeit with the usual heavy focus on Falun Gong - http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/393118-reporting-zhou-yongkang-s-arrest-a-primer-on-the-power-struggle-in-beijing/

This broke an unspoken rule - that current and former members of the Politburo Standing Committee (Standing Committee only, not the larger Politburo) will not be prosecuted, regardless of what crime they may or may not have committed. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 15, 2013, 11:43:53 PM
Quote from: derspiess on December 13, 2013, 03:22:09 PM

Did we ever send his insurance company a bill for repairs?

No, we ate the cost when Bush sent an apology fruit basket.  They did eventually send back the plane, in a bunch of little boxes though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 15, 2013, 11:55:43 PM
From today's NYT Op-Ed page

QuoteContributing Op-Ed Writer
Africa and the Chinese Way
By MURITHI MUTIGA
Published: December 15, 2013

The Kamba people of Kenya claim they were warned about the evils of colonialism long before the first colonialist arrived. The legend goes that the prophet Syokimau, back in the early 19th century, told her people of "a long narrow snake spitting fire" that would make its way up from the East African Coast, bringing with it "red people" who would take away their land. She was right; it was the railroads more than anything else that enabled European colonialists to exploit Kenya's people and extract its wealth during the first half of the 20th century.

The 1,000-kilometer track stretching from the Kenyan port of Mombasa to Uganda was Britain's most ambitious project in Sub-Saharan Africa. The railroad, begun in 1895, was famously disrupted by the so-called man eaters of the Tsavo, two lions that stalked and attacked construction workers. More than 130 people are said to have been killed — the exact number is uncertain — before the animals were finally hunted down. Within the next five years the railroad was completed and the way opened to British domination of the region.

Although portions of the original railroad are still in use, the British no longer call the shots. The Chinese are the new game in town. Beijing has signed off on rail projects across the continent, from Angola in the South, Ethiopia in the East and Nigeria in the West, heralding an infrastructure-expansion boom on a scale never seen in Africa.

On Nov. 28, presidents of four African nations gathered in Mombasa for the inauguration of what was billed as the largest single project in the region's history: a $13.8 billion standard gauge rail line that is expected to link five East African countries and replace the line built by the British. The massive rail networks, almost all of them leading to the sea, will doubtless reinforce the image of a resource-hungry China eager to extract as much as possible from the continent.

In a June 2011 interview in Zambia, Hillary Rodham Clinton, then the U.S. secretary of state, warned Africans to beware of colonial powers that "come in, take out natural resources, pay off leaders and leave." Yet this focus on China's appetite for raw materials misses a more subtle challenge.

In the 20 years since the Cold War's end, free-market, multiparty democracy has been held forth as the ideal form of government (and a key to obtaining support from Washington). But now, drawn to the example set by the fast-growing economies of Asia like China, Singapore and Malaysia — all of which achieved phenomenal growth under modernizing authoritarian governments — a group of African leaders has emerged that openly declares its admiration for this mode of government.

Meles Zenawi, the Ethiopian leader from 1995 until his death in 2012, was perhaps the most forthright advocate of a system that emphasizes economic advancement over democracy. Speaking at the opening of the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa in January 2012, Mr. Meles was effusive in his praise of China. Lauding Beijing for its aid in building the center, he declared that "the people of China and Africa share similar backgrounds that helped them to stand for one goal today, which is economic development."

Other African leaders, from Rwanda's Paul Kagame to Ali Bongo in Gabon, now speak in similar terms. Yet the growing appeal of the statist model has not drawn nearly enough attention in the West. In a talk in June sponsored by TED, the nonprofit organization that holds conferences on ideas, the Zambian economist Dambisa Moyo warned that Western powers need to pay attention to the growing admiration for the Chinese economic miracle.

Pointing to Beijing's success in moving millions of people out of poverty, she added: "It's not just in economics, but also in terms of living standards. We see that in China 28 percent of people had secondary school access. Today it's closer to 82 percent."

The statistics are impressive, but not everyone buys the idea that Africans should follow China's path. Critics note that while the leaders of Rwanda and Ethiopia have delivered considerable improvements in their people's livelihoods, neither Mr. Kagame nor Mr. Meles brooked any dissent and the repression in both lands is notorious.

Besides, other countries, notably Botswana and Mauritius, have demonstrated that economic progress does not necessarily come hand in hand with authoritarian rule.

Perhaps no country sums up the clash of ideas more clearly than Kenya, the commercial and transportation hub of East Africa and one of the most open nations on the continent. Yet Kenya's new president, Uhuru Kenyatta, who counts China as a top ally, has a clear authoritarian streak.

His allies in Parliament have moved to restrict press freedom and are seeking greater control over the judiciary. But Mr. Kenyatta, who faces trials for crimes against humanity in The Hague for his alleged role in the political violence of 2007, confronts a strong and vibrant media and an activist civil society. How Kenya resolves its tensions will have strong influence on its neighbors.

Africans are often reminded that Malaysia and Singapore had roughly the same G.D.P. 40 years ago as Kenya and Ghana have today. What is less often noted is that the Asian economic miracle was achieved by market-savvy rulers who were nonetheless authoritarian in every sense. The counterargument is that Africans will secure equitable economic growth only by replacing kleptocratic, power-hungry rulers with the checks and balances that democratic systems provide.

Will this be China's century? The answer won't be found by toting up trade figures or measuring the length of railroads. The great prophet Syokimau may have been right about the coming railroads when she predicted that the fire-spitting snake would have its tail in the Indian Ocean and its head in Lake Victoria, but alas she said nothing about how Africa's battle of ideas would play out.

Murithi Mutiga is an editor at the Nation Media Group in Kenya.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 16, 2013, 01:09:32 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 15, 2013, 11:14:34 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 15, 2013, 10:10:03 PM
If any of you care about Chinese rumours and the attempts to read the tea leaves, the Epoch Times has a pretty good summary of events thus far; albeit with the usual heavy focus on Falun Gong - http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/393118-reporting-zhou-yongkang-s-arrest-a-primer-on-the-power-struggle-in-beijing/

This broke an unspoken rule - that current and former members of the Politburo Standing Committee (Standing Committee only, not the larger Politburo) will not be prosecuted, regardless of what crime they may or may not have committed.

Yeah, but if Zhou Yongkang and his crew were trying to pull off a bona-fide armed coup, they broke some rules too.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 16, 2013, 01:46:46 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 13, 2013, 01:36:38 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 13, 2013, 01:10:14 PM
Honest question, because I don't know the answer:

What would the USN do if the roles were reversed?  That is a PLA ship is approaching a US carrier in international waters, not listening to requests to turn around?

This is the big problem with Chinese crisis management in the rush :  they have no real operational experience in the cat-and-mouse bullshit that goes on on the high seas.  The USN has decades of experience dancing with the Russians, and it's reflected in everything from JO training to operational guidelines.  They don't sweat this stuff.  Inexperienced Chinese officers under immense political pressure to "do the right thing", though?  That's when things go wrong.

I remember reading a book, that argued that government decisions are dictated by pre-existing plans and organization.  The author used the Cuban missile crisis to illustrate his idea.  The soviets didn't really have any experience for military actions in Latin America and so they used ones for operating in Eastern Europe when setting up their missile bases, which allowed them to be easily spotted.  They really didn't have any fall-back plan for what to do if they met American resistance so after a bit of blundering about, withdrew.

I imagine the US navy has lots of plans on what to do when a hostile ship comes toward them.  The Chinese, not being a strong naval power probably lack the experience to have a bunch of detailed plans (not to mention the freedom of action that comes from being the stronger power).  So I wonder if the Poliburu is giving orders to show the flag while the Navy and Airforce are sitting around coming up with creative ways to tell them that they haven't trained for this, while lower ranking officers are expected to make shit up on the spot.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 16, 2013, 07:35:14 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 16, 2013, 01:46:46 AM
I remember reading a book, that argued that government decisions are dictated by pre-existing plans and organization.  The author used the Cuban missile crisis to illustrate his idea.  The soviets didn't really have any experience for military actions in Latin America and so they used ones for operating in Eastern Europe when setting up their missile bases, which allowed them to be easily spotted.  They really didn't have any fall-back plan for what to do if they met American resistance so after a bit of blundering about, withdrew.

Thing is, Chinese power strategy is predicated on a wholly different dynamic than that of the West, or even the Russians.  With the exception of pouring over the Yalu, Chinese demonstrations and the use of force since '49 has always been targeted at weaker powers, or at least weaker powers as the Chinese perceive them.  While the Cuban Missile Crisis was a fantastic display--probably the best display--of the concept of graduated pressure by the US, the Chinese system of crisis management and risk runs on a wholly different set of variables:  it is always scripted to a fault, with every event and outcome expected to follow form from beginning to end, because that's the way it's supposed to turn out.  And when I mean to a fault, I mean they don't insert contingency planning into the decision tree because they've never really practiced brinksmanship, not even with the Soviets after the Mao-Moscow schism.  They never had to;  they've always been able to be the bully on the block with their neighbors. 
Unfortunately for them, the 7th Fleet doesn't play those reindeer games, and the Japanese are quickly coming to the realization they don't have to anymore, either.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 17, 2013, 01:58:13 AM
Good

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25411653
QuoteJapan's cabinet has approved a new national security strategy and increased defence spending in a move widely seen as aimed at China.

Over the next five years, Japan will buy hardware including drones, aircraft and amphibious vehicles.

The military will also build a new amphibious force capable of retaking islands.


The move comes with Tokyo embroiled in a bitter row with Beijing over East China Sea islands that both claim.

It reflects concern over China's growing assertiveness over its territorial claims and Beijing's mounting defence spending.

"China's stance toward other countries and military moves, coupled with a lack of transparency regarding its military and national security policies, represent a concern to Japan and the wider international community and require close watch," the national security draft said.

'Transparent'

Japan first increased defence spending in January, after a decade of cuts.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was elected a year ago, has called for Japan to broaden the scope of activities performed by its military - something currently tightly controlled by the post-war constitution.

He has also established a National Security Council that can oversee key issues.

Approving the national security strategy made Japan's foreign and security policy "clear and transparent - for both the Japanese people and all the world to see", he said.

The announcement comes weeks after China established an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over a swathe of the East China Sea, including islands controlled by Japan.

It says all aircraft transiting the zone must obey certain rules, such as filing flight plans, or face "measures".

Japan, US and South Korea - which claims a rock that lies within China's declared zone - have strongly criticised the move, with the US calling it a unilateral attempt to change the status quo in the region.

China, meanwhile, says it is "closely watching Japan's security strategy and policy direction".

Mr Abe's government says the strategy is a measured and logical response to a real and increasing threat, reports the BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes in Tokyo.

But others point out that Japan's security is already guaranteed by the US, which has tens of thousands of troops in Japan.

Many on the left here think Mr Abe is using the threat from China to pursue his own nationalist dreams, our correspondent adds.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 01:01:46 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 17, 2013, 01:58:13 AM
Good


Yeah, militarization in Japan always goes well.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on December 17, 2013, 01:06:22 PM
Samurai Swords for everyone!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 17, 2013, 01:08:05 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 17, 2013, 01:06:22 PM
Samurai Swords for everyone!

COOL
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 17, 2013, 01:44:48 PM
with a bit of "luck" things go tits up there just in time for a re-enactment of WW1. But in the far east. Think of the money that could be made by the west.

(rather not cause war is crap, of course)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: KRonn on December 17, 2013, 02:10:46 PM
Japan should be able to re-arm. Their political system is far different from what it was in WW2 days. Same for Germany. The world has changed, those nations have changed. They aren't the bogeymen anymore.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 02:29:46 PM
Quote from: KRonn on December 17, 2013, 02:10:46 PM
Japan should be able to re-arm. Their political system is far different from what it was in WW2 days. Same for Germany. The world has changed, those nations have changed. They aren't the bogeymen anymore.

The thing about military build ups is no one can predict how stable (or not) a government will be in the future.  Nobody can predict or stable or not Japan will be in the future.  We have a bad enough time worry about how stable the US is  :P

For historical perspective people were saying for similar things about Japan prior to WWI. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 02:48:15 PM
Japan has about as much chance of reverting back to militarism as Germany does, unfortunately.  Enough with the hype.  You're all listening to the bad vibes Beijing constantly puts out.  Seoul, too.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 03:29:07 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 02:48:15 PM
Japan has about as much chance of reverting back to militarism as Germany does.

That is because their societies underwent such profound changes after WWII.   A military build up inconsistent with that change.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 17, 2013, 03:44:54 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 17, 2013, 01:06:22 PM
Samurai Swords for everyone!

Those weren't really effective infantry weapons last time around.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 03:52:10 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 03:29:07 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 02:48:15 PM
Japan has about as much chance of reverting back to militarism as Germany does.

That is because their societies underwent such profound changes after WWII.   A military build up inconsistent with that change.

Yeah, it's called "democracy".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 04:07:38 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 03:52:10 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 03:29:07 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 02:48:15 PM
Japan has about as much chance of reverting back to militarism as Germany does.

That is because their societies underwent such profound changes after WWII.   A military build up inconsistent with that change.

Yeah, it's called "democracy".

Meh, a lot of things are called democracy - the real change was a very conscious effort to reject all things militaristic.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 04:10:57 PM
Don't know if any of you have been keeping up with it, but Reuters Investigates has been working on a massive series on China's military buildup in recent years;  latest piece just posted:

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/china-military/#article/part1

Quote
About the series

China's military budget - second only to America's - has soared to almost $200 billion. It top leader, Xi Jinping, is championing a renaissance aimed at China asserting its dominance in Asia and beyond. Its quest to modernize its military has been abetted by U.S. allies in Europe. And China's attempts to get American military technology it cannot legally acquire extends beyond cyber espionage to a broad smuggling effort that enlists local confederates whom U.S. authorities struggle to stop.

A team of Reuters journalists examined the path - and the strategy - that Beijing has chosen in its quest to counter U.S. military might.

Quote"The Chinese navy is very much afraid of the Japanese navy's real capability." Yoji Koda, retired Japanese admiral

You bet your little mandarin beanie it is.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 04:11:51 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 04:07:38 PM
Meh, a lot of things are called democracy - the real change was a very conscious effort to reject all things militaristic.

Yeah, in the officials they elect.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 04:13:07 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 04:11:51 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 04:07:38 PM
Meh, a lot of things are called democracy - the real change was a very conscious effort to reject all things militaristic.

Yeah, in the officials they elect.

God help us if culture is determined by that

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 04:28:01 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 04:13:07 PM
God help us if culture is determined by that

The nice thing about peoples like the Germans and Japanese is they never do anything in moderation.  And nothing short of anything as cataclysmic as WW2 is going to put them in reverse;  too many generations have become entrenched in post-war pacifism.  They've bought into the democratic timeshare.

Now, if at some point in the future, Japan has reason to believe the United States no longer provides a strategic nuclear umbrella, or that the U..S-predicated collective security model is a no longer valid one, well...a nation's gotta do what a nation's gotta to, regardless of government.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 17, 2013, 04:32:26 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 17, 2013, 04:10:57 PM
Don't know if any of you have been keeping up with it, but Reuters Investigates has been working on a massive series on China's military buildup in recent years;  latest piece just posted:

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/china-military/#article/part1You bet your little mandarin beanie it is.

Looks interesting, but the article makes my browser puke :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: KRonn on December 18, 2013, 11:40:52 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 17, 2013, 02:29:46 PM
Quote from: KRonn on December 17, 2013, 02:10:46 PM
Japan should be able to re-arm. Their political system is far different from what it was in WW2 days. Same for Germany. The world has changed, those nations have changed. They aren't the bogeymen anymore.

The thing about military build ups is no one can predict how stable (or not) a government will be in the future.  Nobody can predict or stable or not Japan will be in the future.  We have a bad enough time worry about how stable the US is  :P

For historical perspective people were saying for similar things about Japan prior to WWI.
Japan was vastly different prior to WW2 than now, wasn't it? The world has changed. Back then those nations were still trying to build empires by conquest. We could worry but IMO it's not really necessary to worry about such stable, thriving democracies like Japan and Germany now. Or we might as well worry about the US, UK, France and any other large democracy going nuts too. What we should be worried about are the rogue nations so would want the democracies to have a strong and credible military strength.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 18, 2013, 11:43:54 AM
The thing that differentiates Japan from those other countries is that it has a wacko nationalist element that has not been marginalized as it has, for example, in Germany.

Which is not to say I think Japan will be engaging in wars of conquest any time soon.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on December 18, 2013, 12:12:45 PM
Quote from: KRonn on December 18, 2013, 11:40:52 AM
Or we might as well worry about the US

When did people not worry about this? 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 19, 2013, 01:56:19 AM
Pre WW2 Japan was pretty much North Korea. It has changed a tonne.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 18, 2013, 11:43:54 AM
The thing that differentiates Japan from those other countries is that it has a wacko nationalist element that has not been marginalized as it has, for example, in Germany.

Which is not to say I think Japan will be engaging in wars of conquest any time soon.
It is pretty firmly marginalised.
There's Japanese culture at work though. Wheras in the west we see it as our duty to speak out against those we disagree with, in Japan they see it as far better to just shun them and not link yourself with them in anyway whether it be by being for or against.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Phillip V on December 22, 2013, 07:37:03 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FBF-AG432_YARN_NS_20131220182103.jpg&hash=bda6eb457b5054de3d6737bdb2b0fd0d2ff260da)

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304202204579256120230694210
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 22, 2013, 08:15:06 PM
I dare you to say something unflattering about Japan Squeeze.  :D

I have not heard mention of the subject for some time, but the last time it was in the news Japanese text books were painting a very revisionist picture of Japan's actions in WWII.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 22, 2013, 08:38:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 22, 2013, 08:15:06 PM
I dare you to say something unflattering about Japan Squeeze.  :D
Their attitude to the environment is to cover everything in concrete and they seem completely unaware of what urban planning is.

Quote
I have not heard mention of the subject for some time, but the last time it was in the news Japanese text books were painting a very revisionist picture of Japan's actions in WWII.
That was one idiotic right winger boasting about how he had managed to get one minor detail (comfort women) removed from JHS textbooks. Comfort women don't really change the overall picture very much and I'd say there's probably a case not to mention such adult stuff in books for kids; when we learned about slavery we got the idea well enough that it was bad even without the rapey side of things.

From what I've seen of Japanese history the focus tends to be far more on the civilian suffering than on what the military got up to but I wouldn't quite say that having a different focus quite counts as revisionist, even if there could be seen to be a dodgy reason behind this choice of focus. The basic facts remain there- Japan was paranoid and more than a little insane, did bad stuff overseas, attacked the US, lost.
Whatever flaws they may have in their view of history in Japan however they seem to have a much more realistic and less revionist picture of their history than the Koreans or Chinese do.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 08:41:38 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 22, 2013, 08:38:21 PM

That was one idiotic right winger boasting about how he had managed to get one minor detail (comfort women) removed from JHS textbooks. Comfort women don't really change the overall picture very much and I'd say there's probably a case not to mention such adult stuff in books for kids; when we learned about slavery we got the idea well enough that it was bad even without the rapey side of things.

How is that a minor issue? It's one of the two biggest issues that keeps Korea and Japan from having good relations.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 22, 2013, 08:42:18 PM
You don't think glossing over wars of conquest and brutal war crimes counts as revisionist?

And I'd never even heard about the comfort women removal.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 22, 2013, 08:57:13 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 08:41:38 PM
How is that a minor issue? It's one of the two biggest issues that keeps Korea and Japan from having good relations.
When you're conquering countires, plundering cities and murdering millions, the complicated issue of whether a few thousand women were prostitutes or rape victims isn't particularly necessary. Especially since we're talking about  teaching to 14 year olds here.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 22, 2013, 09:49:59 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on December 22, 2013, 07:37:03 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FBF-AG432_YARN_NS_20131220182103.jpg&hash=bda6eb457b5054de3d6737bdb2b0fd0d2ff260da)

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304202204579256120230694210

Anybody who wants the textiles industry can have it.  It is not like the Chinese want it anymore.  It is low in the food chain.  There is a conscious effort on the Chinese communists' part not to encourage the expansion of the textile industry.  Its time has passed.  Bangladesh is the go-to destination for cheap textile labour now.  The Chinese want something bigger, higher margins, more technology content, etc.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 22, 2013, 10:03:01 PM
It's that last figure that's interesting. Either Chinese factory workers are much better paid than we thought, or their system isn't very efficient. (I'm assuming those figures don't cover transportation costs, as that would be quite misleading).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 22, 2013, 10:07:45 PM
I recall seeing similar figures for the UK and China. I think it does include transport costs, they are a pretty important part of the overall picture.

What makes me sad is the cost of the new factory, the large unemployment rate and the very small 500 new jobs. Every little helps but pretty depressing that such investment only gives 500 jobs
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 22, 2013, 10:12:47 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 22, 2013, 10:07:45 PM
I recall seeing similar figures for the UK and China. I think it does include transport costs, they are a pretty important part of the overall picture.

Well, if the graphic is comparing the cost of producing them and shipping them to the Wal-Mart in Lancaster County, South Carolina, it should say so.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 11:06:44 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 22, 2013, 08:57:13 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 08:41:38 PM
How is that a minor issue? It's one of the two biggest issues that keeps Korea and Japan from having good relations.
When you're conquering countires, plundering cities and murdering millions, the complicated issue of whether a few thousand women were prostitutes or rape victims isn't particularly necessary. Especially since we're talking about  teaching to 14 year olds here.
When every 14 year old in Korea knows about it and resents Japan for brushing aside the issue it is a problem.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 23, 2013, 12:11:04 AM
Who cares what Koreans think about anything?  When it comes to the allegiance of the West, Japan will always trump South Korea.  So the Koreans should just suck it up.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: PRC on December 23, 2013, 12:40:57 AM
Chinese destroyer passing through the Strait of Magellan:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FE65L2XZ.jpg&hash=5b1d33935eafe32185b73afbc806a01edefcc0b9)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 23, 2013, 01:13:51 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 11:06:44 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 22, 2013, 08:57:13 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 08:41:38 PM
How is that a minor issue? It's one of the two biggest issues that keeps Korea and Japan from having good relations.
When you're conquering countires, plundering cities and murdering millions, the complicated issue of whether a few thousand women were prostitutes or rape victims isn't particularly necessary. Especially since we're talking about  teaching to 14 year olds here.
When every 14 year old in Korea knows about it and resents Japan for brushing aside the issue it is a problem.
Japan isn't to blame for Korean revisionism.

There isn't much of an issue to be had with the comfort women. Japan long ago apologized and paid compensation. Nationalists on both sides continue to try and kick up fuss about it however,with considerably more success on the Korean side
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 23, 2013, 01:30:04 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 11:06:44 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 22, 2013, 08:57:13 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 08:41:38 PM
How is that a minor issue? It's one of the two biggest issues that keeps Korea and Japan from having good relations.
When you're conquering countires, plundering cities and murdering millions, the complicated issue of whether a few thousand women were prostitutes or rape victims isn't particularly necessary. Especially since we're talking about  teaching to 14 year olds here.
When every 14 year old in Korea knows about it and resents Japan for brushing aside the issue it is a problem.

Same in China.  The problem as I see it as Japan's refusal to come clean.  Their grandfathers did it.  All they need to do is to say sorry, won't happen again.  But no, I regularly see Japanese politicians say "it never happened."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 23, 2013, 01:40:11 AM
Quote from: Tyr on December 23, 2013, 01:13:51 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 11:06:44 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 22, 2013, 08:57:13 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 08:41:38 PM
How is that a minor issue? It's one of the two biggest issues that keeps Korea and Japan from having good relations.
When you're conquering countires, plundering cities and murdering millions, the complicated issue of whether a few thousand women were prostitutes or rape victims isn't particularly necessary. Especially since we're talking about  teaching to 14 year olds here.
When every 14 year old in Korea knows about it and resents Japan for brushing aside the issue it is a problem.
Japan isn't to blame for Korean revisionism.

There isn't much of an issue to be had with the comfort women. Japan long ago apologized and paid compensation. Nationalists on both sides continue to try and kick up fuss about it however,with considerably more success on the Korean side
It is not revisionism. And you are being very disingenuous when describing Japan's "compensation".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 23, 2013, 02:14:17 AM
Any pics of a Chinese tank passing through the Khyber Pass?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 23, 2013, 08:26:51 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 23, 2013, 01:30:04 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 11:06:44 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 22, 2013, 08:57:13 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 22, 2013, 08:41:38 PM
How is that a minor issue? It's one of the two biggest issues that keeps Korea and Japan from having good relations.
When you're conquering countires, plundering cities and murdering millions, the complicated issue of whether a few thousand women were prostitutes or rape victims isn't particularly necessary. Especially since we're talking about  teaching to 14 year olds here.
When every 14 year old in Korea knows about it and resents Japan for brushing aside the issue it is a problem.
Same in China.  The problem as I see it as Japan's refusal to come clean.  Their grandfathers did it.  All they need to do is to say sorry, won't happen again.  But no, I regularly see Japanese politicians say "it never happened."
Yeah, but that's a different kettle of fish.  Given China's perfidy and evil, it would be unwise for Japan to back down even a little to them.  They'd probably try and take Kyushu as compensation.  That's why Japan needs their own nuclear deterrant ASAP.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 23, 2013, 09:01:11 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 23, 2013, 01:30:04 AM

Same in China.  The problem as I see it as Japan's refusal to come clean.  Their grandfathers did it.  All they need to do is to say sorry, won't happen again.  But no, I regularly see Japanese politicians say "it never happened."
That's because the Chinese and Korean nationalists have already made up their mind about the Japanese. Another Japanese right wing idiot saying something horrible sells more papers/riles up the masses and that is what they want.
The version of events where everyone in Japan agrees with those select morons and the many Japanese apologies never happened, is far more fitting to the world view certain parties in China and Korea want to project. And sadly "EVIL JAPAN!!!" has more appeal than "Japan? Meh, they're OK".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_war_apology_statements_issued_by_Japan

Here is a big one with Japan coming clean:

QuoteJune 9, 1995: House of Representatives, National Diet of Japan passed a resolution stating: "On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II, this House offers its sincere condolences to those who fell in action and victims of wars and similar actions all over the world. Solemnly reflecting upon many instances of colonial rule and acts of aggression in the modern history of the world, and recognizing that Japan carried out those acts in the past, inflicting pain and suffering upon the peoples of other countries, especially in Asia, the Members of this House express a sense of deep remorse"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 09:14:11 AM
 :lol:  "Solemnly reflecting on all the horrible wars that you others have fought, though we did too I suppose."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 23, 2013, 09:27:04 AM
"There has been a lot of war and horrible stuff in the past. Particularly relevant to us, Japan did a lot of bad shit. We're now totally opposed to war and all related actions. Sorry we weren't always this way."

I don't see the problem with tying in general commentary about being opposed to all war, imperialism, etc... along with marking out Japan in particular.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 23, 2013, 09:31:18 AM
My kindergarten teacher wouldn't have accepted that lame ass statement as an apology after I had been bad. Little kids can do better than Japan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 09:33:16 AM
Would you be happy with a similar apology from Germany?

"Wars of conquest are terrible things.  Ours was too.

Many times in history people have been singled out for prosecution.  That's awful, and we feel bad about being one of the many countries that did this."

Or persecution even.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Capetan Mihali on December 23, 2013, 10:09:22 AM
ESL teacher fight!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 23, 2013, 10:11:50 AM
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on December 23, 2013, 10:09:22 AM
ESL teacher fight!

I like how they are defending the country they are in. Brown nosers.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 23, 2013, 11:12:28 AM
Yi's right of course.
Germany did it the right way and now they are at the heart of Europe and make nice bank from all the Jewish dentists that buy Beemers.
Japan has been insincere and half-assed it and that just made the resentment fester worse.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 11:16:23 AM
There are Jewish dentists?  :huh:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 23, 2013, 11:17:21 AM
How ironic.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on December 23, 2013, 11:30:14 AM
Quote from: The Brain on December 23, 2013, 11:17:21 AM
How ironic.
:pinch:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 23, 2013, 12:16:26 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 23, 2013, 11:12:28 AM
Yi's right of course.
Germany did it the right way and now they are at the heart of Europe and make nice bank from all the Jewish dentists that buy Beemers.
Japan has been insincere and half-assed it and that just made the resentment fester worse.
By the metric of car sales, Japan's half-assed apologies have been far more successful than Germany's descent into pathetic, submisive loserdom.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Capetan Mihali on December 23, 2013, 12:30:13 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 11:16:23 AM
There are Jewish dentists?  :huh:

:unsure:  Yes?  I've only gone to Jewish or Italian dentists in my life, I think...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 23, 2013, 12:33:37 PM
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on December 23, 2013, 12:30:13 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 11:16:23 AM
There are Jewish dentists?  :huh:

:unsure:  Yes?  I've only gone to Jewish or Italian dentists in my life, I think...
Sooo...  you're some kind of racist?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 12:34:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 11:16:23 AM
There are Jewish dentists?  :huh:
and how!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 12:37:58 PM
I've never met a Jewish dentist, except for the Israeli she-dentist who himnotized me.

Seems like sort of a cop-out, settling for dentist instead of going to medical school, and very un-Jewish.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Capetan Mihali on December 23, 2013, 12:39:16 PM
Quote from: Neil on December 23, 2013, 12:33:37 PM
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on December 23, 2013, 12:30:13 PM
:unsure:  Yes?  I've only gone to Jewish or Italian dentists in my life, I think...
Sooo...  you're some kind of racist?

:Embarrass:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on December 23, 2013, 12:39:36 PM
I'm not racist but I am an anti-Dentite.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 12:43:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 12:37:58 PM
I've never met a Jewish dentist, except for the Israeli she-dentist who himnotized me.

Seems like sort of a cop-out, settling for dentist instead of going to medical school, and very un-Jewish.
My best friend in elementary/middle school's dad was a Jewish dentist.  He has a very busy practice and when he retired sold it for a fuck ton of dough.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Capetan Mihali on December 23, 2013, 12:52:38 PM
Dentists can definitely make the big bucks.

That said, at least in the New York area, there are plenty of Jews who aren't in elite or high-end professions.  And not just in the ultra-Orthodox community.  My Jewish family has a locksmith, shoe salesman, optician, nurse, rental car manager, hardware store manager...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 01:01:12 PM
Yeah, if I was my friend I would have asked Dad to mentor me so I could become a dentist and take over the practice when he retired.  Instead, my friend is now doing basically the exact same thing I do for a career. :sleep:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on December 23, 2013, 01:04:13 PM
Quote from: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 01:01:12 PM
Yeah, if I was my friend I would have asked Dad to mentor me so I could become a dentist and take over the practice when he retired.  Instead, my friend is now doing basically the exact same thing I do for a career. :sleep:
How's he like HR?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 01:07:14 PM
I'd ask him if that was even remotely relevant. :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Malthus on December 23, 2013, 01:53:25 PM
Here in Canada at least, dentists can make truly big bucks. Better than family docs. 

Part of it is that, unlike the docs, dentistry up here is still mostly free-market. Docs are always complaining that the provincial public insurer doesn't pay 'em enough. The specialists make big bucks but family docs tend not to.

Another part is that most of the actual work can be done by low-cost hygenicists, with the dentist acting as the boss manager and taking a cut.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 01:56:08 PM
:yes:

Most of the time, my dentist doesn't do shit.  I could do her job easily.  All she does is look at the X-rays and review the hygienist's work, and then tap all my teeth with a pick and pretend she's double checking what the hygienist found.

She's hot, though. :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Malthus on December 23, 2013, 01:59:48 PM
Quote from: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 01:56:08 PM
:yes:

Most of the time, my dentist doesn't do shit.  I could do her job easily.  All she does is look at the X-rays and review the hygienist's work, and then tap all my teeth with a pick and pretend she's double checking what the hygienist found.

She's hot, though. :)

"Hey Doc - how about I probe YOUR cavities this time?  :perv: "

"More nitrous oxide for this one, nurse  :mad: "
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 23, 2013, 02:02:26 PM
Quote from: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 01:56:08 PM
:yes:

Most of the time, my dentist doesn't do shit.  I could do her job easily.  All she does is look at the X-rays and review the hygienist's work, and then tap all my teeth with a pick and pretend she's double checking what the hygienist found.

She's hot, though. :)

Does she tell you how much dose you get from the X-rays?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 02:04:34 PM
For some reason I have had hot female dentists since ~ 2002 (in Massachusetts and Kentucky both).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 02:05:10 PM
My hottie gum jabber moved to Minnesota. :weep:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Caliga on December 23, 2013, 02:05:21 PM
Quote from: The Brain on December 23, 2013, 02:02:26 PM
Does she tell you how much dose you get from the X-rays?
"Let's sievert those boobs, baby!"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 23, 2013, 09:02:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 09:33:16 AM
Would you be happy with a similar apology from Germany?

"Wars of conquest are terrible things.  Ours was too.

Many times in history people have been singled out for prosecution.  That's awful, and we feel bad about being one of the many countries that did this."

Or persecution even.

For the war itself that would be a fine apology.
For the non-war related nasty actions seperate apologies are needed.

No matter how shitty you think Japan's apologies have been however, there's a long way between the commonly presented image of Japan thinking they did nothing wrong, rewriting history and not apologising at all (what I was replying to), and Japan just doing a bad job of apologising.
For the record I would agree they should do more.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 09:04:01 PM
Commonly presented by whom Squeeze?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 23, 2013, 09:06:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2013, 09:04:01 PM
Commonly presented by whom Squeeze?
China, Korea, uninformed people around the world.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 23, 2013, 10:03:08 PM
I have an alternate theory.  Instead of everyone else being wrong, maybe Tyr is wrong.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 23, 2013, 11:28:46 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 23, 2013, 10:03:08 PM
I have an alternate theory.  Instead of everyone else being wrong, maybe Tyr is wrong.
:lmfao:
This makes absolutely no sense. It's a matter of public record that various Japanese figures have apologised many times in the past.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 23, 2013, 11:37:15 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 23, 2013, 11:28:46 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 23, 2013, 10:03:08 PM
I have an alternate theory.  Instead of everyone else being wrong, maybe Tyr is wrong.
:lmfao:
This makes absolutely no sense. It's a matter of public record that various Japanese figures have apologised many times in the past.

When you make an apology, it is kinda important to have the feelings of the people being apologised to in mind.  I think China and Korea have reasonable grounds to consider that the "apologies" in question are not sincere enough.  For one, the wording of such apologies is lame.  For another, various Japanese figures, ministers included, have contradicted those apologies by statements to the effect of "we didn't do it." It really isn't that difficult to make a sincere, thorough apology instead of a half-assed one. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 23, 2013, 11:55:48 PM
In other words, if anybody in Japan is ever elected who doesn't weep and gnash his teeth when Chinese and Korean nationalists complain about Japanese history, Japan's apologies are insincere?

Fuck China.  The Japanese should have exterminated them all.  The world would be a much better place with a billion fewer of those assholes in it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 24, 2013, 03:31:06 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 23, 2013, 11:28:46 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 23, 2013, 10:03:08 PM
I have an alternate theory.  Instead of everyone else being wrong, maybe Tyr is wrong.
:lmfao:
This makes absolutely no sense. It's a matter of public record that various Japanese figures have apologised many times in the past.

I understand that it makes no sense to you that you could possibly be wrong.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 26, 2013, 06:37:34 AM
Quote from: Neil on December 23, 2013, 11:55:48 PM
In other words, if anybody in Japan is ever elected who doesn't weep and gnash his teeth when Chinese and Korean nationalists complain about Japanese history, Japan's apologies are insincere?


Not just anybody, but the Prime Minister

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/26/22056272-backlash-at-japan-after-pm-shinzo-abe-visits-controversial-war-shrine?lite
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 06:40:24 AM
I see the shrine thing as quite different from the apology and text book things.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 26, 2013, 07:22:04 AM
Imagine Angela Merkel visiting a religious site that honours guys like Goring and Himmler.  I know it is a calculated move designed to give a giant middle finger that says "we do as we please."  But other people have the right to be pissed too.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 07:25:59 AM
The Vietnam War Memorial lists the name of every single American KIA and MIA.  It's not a leap to assume that at least one of them committed a war crime.  Yet a person paying their respects is not honoring war crime.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 26, 2013, 07:27:43 AM
The shrine issue is an interesting one. I used to think it was an example of japan refusing to admit guilt, worshipping war criminals and all the other usual stuff one hears about it.
I did some research though... And a pm going there actually makes a fair bit of sense. It's a shrine for all those who died for japan, which yes, includes several war criminals... But if those war criminals were removed then it would be akin to saying they didn't die for japan and japan doesn't admit any guilt over their crimes.
It's a bit of a no win situation for japan really.

QuoteWhen you make an apology, it is kinda important to have the feelings of the people being apologised to in mind.  I think China and Korea have reasonable grounds to consider that the "apologies" in question are not sincere enough.  For one, the wording of such apologies is lame.  For another, various Japanese figures, ministers included, have contradicted those apologies by statements to the effect of "we didn't do it." It really isn't that difficult to make a sincere, thorough apology instead of a half-assed one.
My point is the apologies do exist. Yet it's presented that they don't. The apologies also come from far more senior figures than the various examples of idiocy that occasionally pop up.

Quote from: Razgovory on December 24, 2013, 03:31:06 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 23, 2013, 11:28:46 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 23, 2013, 10:03:08 PM
I have an alternate theory.  Instead of everyone else being wrong, maybe Tyr is wrong.
:lmfao:
This makes absolutely no sense. It's a matter of public record that various Japanese figures have apologised many times in the past.

I understand that it makes no sense to you that you could possibly be wrong.
Not when I'm speaking in simple facts no.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 07:31:43 AM
Quote from: Tyr on December 26, 2013, 07:27:43 AM
My point is the apologies do exist. Yet it's presented that they don't.

Not by those here.  You're arguing in a vacuum.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 26, 2013, 07:57:42 AM
Quote from: Tyr on December 26, 2013, 07:27:43 AM
The shrine issue is an interesting one. I used to think it was an example of japan refusing to admit guilt, worshipping war criminals and all the other usual stuff one hears about it.
I did some research though... And a pm going there actually makes a fair bit of sense. It's a shrine for all those who died for japan, which yes, includes several war criminals... But if those war criminals were removed then it would be akin to saying they didn't die for japan and japan doesn't admit any guilt over their crimes.
It's a bit of a no win situation for japan really.



I think Japan can simply do what Germany does to get out of this "no win" situation. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 26, 2013, 08:12:26 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 26, 2013, 07:57:42 AM

I think Japan can simply do what Germany does to get out of this "no win" situation. 
That's not an option for Japan. They're very big on continuity, how old their country is and all that. Maybe during the American occupation the continuity could hav been firmly broken but that ship has sailed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 26, 2013, 08:15:09 AM
Quote from: Tyr on December 26, 2013, 08:12:26 AM

That's not an option for Japan. They're very big on continuity, how old their country is and all that. Maybe during the American occupation the continuity could hav been firmly broken but that ship has sailed.

That excuse is lame.  If they really want to change something, I'm sure they can find a way.  They just don't want to. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 08:16:36 AM
Very lame.  They can't apologize because their country is too old?  Seriously?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 26, 2013, 08:27:51 AM
I thought there was a specific theological argument that prevented them. That the souls of those enshrined at the shrine merge into a big soul blob and the individual souls can no longer be discerned. Thus you can't just pay your respects to the non war criminals, it's all or nothing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 26, 2013, 08:35:55 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 26, 2013, 08:27:51 AM
I thought there was a specific theological argument that prevented them. That the souls of those enshrined at the shrine merge into a big soul blob and the individual souls can no longer be discerned. Thus you can't just pay your respects to the non war criminals, it's all or nothing.

Come on, you really believe that?  A theological argument determined government policy?  A theological argument is more important than things like national interests?  It is always the other way round - that national interests and government policy determine the theological arguments.  If they are determined to, say, remove the major war criminal's ashes from that shrine, they sure can come up with a newly discovered theological argument to justify the action. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 26, 2013, 08:39:50 AM
Japan isn't China, the monks can tell the government to fuck off.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 26, 2013, 08:44:33 AM
Yep. Some of the more controversial figures in the shrine were secretly included by the head priest. Actually after they were included the Emperor stopped visiting because he personally disapproved.

QuoteThat excuse is lame.  If they really want to change something, I'm sure they can find a way.  They just don't want to. 
You're not understanding the issue here. Its not a case of Japan deciding to do something that pisses off China with the other option being to not piss off China.
Yasukuni shrine is intended for everyone who died for Japan. Whether or not the shrine should be allowed to include war criminals (it is a private organisation) and whether important figures should visit has actually been a controversial issue in Japan.
Given the other options and the deed being already done I support including the war criminals. As things stand the shrine doesn't discriminate, it includes the best and the worst of people who died for Japan. To pick and choose who to include stinks of white washing history.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 08:16:36 AM
Very lame.  They can't apologize because their country is too old?  Seriously?
Huh? Where did you get that from? Apologies have nothing to do with the shrine issue.

Its not so much that Japan is old but that it has continuity that is an issue. With Germany you've quite clear lines between different periods, e.g. Weimar, the third reich, the Federal Republic. In Japan things aren't seen so distinctly, Japan has always been Japan, for better or worse. This shrine has been running since the 19th century and it survived through the war.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 26, 2013, 08:45:01 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 26, 2013, 08:39:50 AM
Japan isn't China, the monks can tell the government to fuck off.

I can believe that they have real difficulty removing the ashes of, say, Tojo from the shrine.  I can't believe somebody forced their PM to visit the shrine. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 08:48:12 AM
Quote from: Tyr on December 26, 2013, 08:44:33 AM
Huh? Where did you get that from? Apologies have nothing to do with the shrine issue.

My bad.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 26, 2013, 08:50:44 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 08:16:36 AM
Very lame.  They can't apologize because their country is too old?  Seriously?
They already apologized.  It would be unwise to apologize too often, as otherwise your enemies would think you weak and cowardly, like the Germans are.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 26, 2013, 08:51:51 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 26, 2013, 08:45:01 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 26, 2013, 08:39:50 AM
Japan isn't China, the monks can tell the government to fuck off.

I can believe that they have real difficulty removing the ashes of, say, Tojo from the shrine.  I can't believe somebody forced their PM to visit the shrine.
Why wouldn't he visit a shrine for everyone killed in the war?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 08:53:07 AM
Quote from: Neil on December 26, 2013, 08:50:44 AM
They already apologized.  It would be unwise to apologize too often, as otherwise your enemies would think you weak and cowardly, like the Germans are.

The issue is with the quality, not the quantity.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 26, 2013, 09:25:12 AM
Quote from: Neil on December 26, 2013, 08:50:44 AM
They already apologized.  It would be unwise to apologize too often, as otherwise your enemies would think you weak and cowardly, like the Germans are.

Modern Japan is weak and cowardly, just like every Western nation.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Capetan Mihali on December 26, 2013, 10:06:59 AM
Neil's showing his true otaku colors in this thread.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 26, 2013, 10:09:19 AM
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on December 26, 2013, 10:06:59 AM
Neil's showing his true otaku colors in this thread.

I like it that the Engrish guy is Tom Cruise'n against a real Chinese guy.

Awesome.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 26, 2013, 05:31:48 PM
So is this big gold statue of Mao the Chinese version of tit for tat? You guys honor war criminals, so we honor genociders?  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 05:34:45 PM
Mao mostly killed the hell out of the Chinese. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on December 26, 2013, 06:08:44 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2013, 05:34:45 PM
Mao mostly killed the hell out of the Chinese.

So they have something in common.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 26, 2013, 07:14:09 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on December 26, 2013, 05:31:48 PM
So is this big gold statue of Mao the Chinese version of tit for tat? You guys honor war criminals, so we honor genociders?  :lol:

The last bunch of Chinese government officials trying to make a big deal out of honouring Mao are all languishing in prison or house arrest.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 26, 2013, 07:53:40 PM
So has Tyr gone native or is this just his normal dopey self?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 26, 2013, 08:42:29 PM
He still sounds more British than Japanese to me.

Lettow is the one going native.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 26, 2013, 09:06:52 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 26, 2013, 07:53:40 PM
So has Tyr gone native or is this just his normal dopey self?
Wait, really?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 26, 2013, 09:14:54 PM
Quote from: Neil on December 26, 2013, 09:06:52 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 26, 2013, 07:53:40 PM
So has Tyr gone native or is this just his normal dopey self?
Wait, really?

I thought he lives in Japan these days, teaching and such.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 26, 2013, 09:31:27 PM
Yeah, all that is true.  It just rankled me for you to call him 'dopey'.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 26, 2013, 11:14:55 PM
What word would you have preferred.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 26, 2013, 11:49:22 PM
I just don't think it's appropriate for you to criticize people's politics, even though Jos is usually fairly dopey.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 27, 2013, 12:14:21 AM
In the future I'll just email my comments to Grumbler and have him relay it to Tyr.  I often do that.  If Grumbler is saying something stupid, you can bet he's doing it on my behalf.  Come to think of it, we've been doing that a lot lately.  Maybe I should stop that, people might start to think that there is something wrong Grumbles.  :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 27, 2013, 12:25:39 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 27, 2013, 12:14:21 AM
If Grumbler is saying something stupid, you can bet he's doing it on my behalf.

I think the head wound he got serving on the Monitor might have something to do with it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 30, 2013, 12:50:23 AM
There's no fucking way that the number on this jet is a coincidence. How can you defend this scumbag Tyr? I understand he's managed the economy better than any Japanese PM in 20 years, but he's revisionist of the worst sort.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpds.joins.com%2Fjmnet%2Fkoreajoongangdaily%2F_data%2Fphoto%2F2013%2F05%2F14214144.jpg&hash=d6cfa03cf46ee35210e88d88a5caf1e00d59a1b6)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 01:03:28 AM
This just shows how low this guy is willing to go.  I just don't understand how he can think it is a good representation of himself and Japan. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 01:04:54 AM
What does 731 mean?  Is that a date?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on December 30, 2013, 01:09:10 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 01:04:54 AM
What does 731 mean?  Is that a date?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 30, 2013, 01:40:26 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 26, 2013, 07:53:40 PM
So has Tyr gone native or is this just his normal dopey self?
There are some people on this forum who have done much better at life than me and could have some basis on which to insult me like this.
You sir, are really not one of those people. You are a living warning of how badly shit can get if I don't push onwards.

Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 30, 2013, 12:50:23 AM
There's no fucking way that the number on this jet is a coincidence. How can you defend this scumbag Tyr? I understand he's managed the economy better than any Japanese PM in 20 years, but he's revisionist of the worst sort.

[img]http://pds.joins.
:huh:
I haven't defended him.
And I'm not sure revisionist is the right word if you're accepting history as written but trying to wind people up about it. :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 01:48:35 AM
Gunna pull class on me?  No matter what you do, no matter what you achieve, you'll still be your dopey self.  Even a lunatic with no prospects on the the other side of the world can see that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 01:49:11 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 30, 2013, 01:09:10 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 01:04:54 AM
What does 731 mean?  Is that a date?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731)

Is that widely known?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 01:53:56 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 01:49:11 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 30, 2013, 01:09:10 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 01:04:54 AM
What does 731 mean?  Is that a date?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731)

Is that widely known?

It is very widely known, in China at least. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 30, 2013, 01:59:16 AM
Quote from: Tyr on December 30, 2013, 01:40:26 AM
There are some people on this forum who have done much better at life than me and could have some basis on which to insult me like this.
You sir, are really not one of those people. You are a living warning of how badly shit can get if I don't push onwards.

Sadly, the ability to judge and insult people on the internet isn't a skill that's easy to translate into "success". As such, I don't get why you think successful people would be better at it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 30, 2013, 02:04:39 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on December 30, 2013, 01:59:16 AM

Sadly, the ability to judge and insult people on the internet isn't a skill that's easy to translate into "success". As such, I don't get why you think successful people would be better at it.
Somebody who is a certifiable failure and idiot decides to call other people dumb- that's a monkey throwing shit. It's stupid and meaningless.
Somebody who has done something with their life and has something going on in their noggin calls someone else an idiot- they are in a bit more of a position to judge.
They could just be an arse hole of course (the usual case) but as an insult it means a bit more to have an accountant attack your money-sense than to have a random homeless guy yelling about how much you stink.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 30, 2013, 02:12:09 AM
Raz is certainly not an idiot, whatever his other faults.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 30, 2013, 02:53:18 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 01:49:11 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 30, 2013, 01:09:10 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 01:04:54 AM
What does 731 mean?  Is that a date?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731)

Is that widely known?

Yes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 30, 2013, 03:24:33 AM
I have a hard time believing he did that on purpose.  It's too beyond the pale.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 04:27:28 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 30, 2013, 03:24:33 AM
I have a hard time believing he did that on purpose.  It's too beyond the pale.

I also have a hard time believing that it is purely by chance. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on December 30, 2013, 04:30:21 AM
Hypothesis: when the photo op was planned a military guy thought it was funny/a big giant middle finger (or Japanese equivalent) to use plane 731. PM sits down in it without noticing or giving it much thought.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on December 30, 2013, 04:44:14 AM
Never ascribe to conspiracy or malice what can be explained simply by stupidity.

What possible motive could anyone have for intentionally using that number? What would that even mean for the biggest Japanese political asshole you could imagine?

The worst possible claim that could be made for any politician in regards to Unit 731 is the claim that it simply did not exist, or that it didn't do the things claimed. How is sitting in a plane intentionally numbered after that Unit somehow relevant to that?

This doesn't even fucking make any sense as a potential scandal.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 04:49:40 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 30, 2013, 04:30:21 AM
Hypothesis: when the photo op was planned a military guy thought it was funny/a big giant middle finger (or Japanese equivalent) to use plane 731. PM sits down in it without noticing or giving it much thought.

I am willing to believe this, though I won't exclude the possibility that the PM did it on purpose. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on December 30, 2013, 04:52:21 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 04:49:40 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 30, 2013, 04:30:21 AM
Hypothesis: when the photo op was planned a military guy thought it was funny/a big giant middle finger (or Japanese equivalent) to use plane 731. PM sits down in it without noticing or giving it much thought.

I am willing to believe this, though I won't exclude the possibility that the PM did it on purpose. 

Did WHAT on purpose?

What would be the point?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on December 30, 2013, 05:16:57 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 30, 2013, 12:50:23 AM
There's no fucking way that the number on this jet is a coincidence. How can you defend this scumbag Tyr? I understand he's managed the economy better than any Japanese PM in 20 years, but he's revisionist of the worst sort.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpds.joins.com%2Fjmnet%2Fkoreajoongangdaily%2F_data%2Fphoto%2F2013%2F05%2F14214144.jpg&hash=d6cfa03cf46ee35210e88d88a5caf1e00d59a1b6)

You've been in Korea too long if you're starting to think silly things like this.

Excerpts from two comments from an English language website -

"All T-4s are given a registration number 600-800."

"Not to mention that T-4 number 731 is the lead aircraft of the Blue Impulse aerobatic team* and that team is stationed in Tohoku on a base heavily damaged by the 2011 tsunami. Abe's address to the JSDF forces on that day focused on Tsunami rescue and recovery efforts."


If there was any deeper reason for him sitting in the plane then that's it; it was the lead plane of the aerobatics team at the time. Equally likely is that, as has also been suggested, it was simply the most conveniently placed plane when the base commander learned that the PM wanted a photo-op.


*Or, to be precise, it was at the time - the full ID code of the plane is 46-5731 and at the time would have had a big 1 painted on the tailfin.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 05:21:59 AM
Quote from: Berkut on December 30, 2013, 04:52:21 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 04:49:40 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 30, 2013, 04:30:21 AM
Hypothesis: when the photo op was planned a military guy thought it was funny/a big giant middle finger (or Japanese equivalent) to use plane 731. PM sits down in it without noticing or giving it much thought.

I am willing to believe this, though I won't exclude the possibility that the PM did it on purpose. 

Did WHAT on purpose?

What would be the point?

The same reason he went to that shrine.  To please his voters, and to show that he do as he pleases.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on December 30, 2013, 08:11:11 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 05:21:59 AM
Quote from: Berkut on December 30, 2013, 04:52:21 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 04:49:40 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 30, 2013, 04:30:21 AM
Hypothesis: when the photo op was planned a military guy thought it was funny/a big giant middle finger (or Japanese equivalent) to use plane 731. PM sits down in it without noticing or giving it much thought.

I am willing to believe this, though I won't exclude the possibility that the PM did it on purpose. 

Did WHAT on purpose?

What would be the point?

The same reason he went to that shrine.  To please his voters, and to show that he do as he pleases.

So you think a bunch of his voters think that Unit 731 is way cool? So much so that he had a airplane specially painted and registered so he could sit in it and show off how much he thinks human vivisection is awesome?


That is not at all "the same as" visiting a shrine, which would be to show that he is willing to honor those who died ifghting for Japan, even if others think that is inappropriate considering they died fighting in a war of aggression. That "makes sense", if at least from the standpoint of you can see why he would think that is either politically useful or even personally important.


Nobody in Japan is sitting around claiming that Unit 731 ought to be memorialized, not even the most ardent of nationalists. They may very well be in denial about it, which is just as bad, but you don't deny the existence of something by slapping its designation on airplanes. That would be like a holocaust denier sitting around in a car with a "Auschwitz was awesome" bumper sticker.


Again, the idea that this is something other than an unfortunate coincidence simply does not make any sense.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 08:59:40 AM
Quote from: Berkut on December 30, 2013, 08:11:11 AM


So you think a bunch of his voters think that Unit 731 is way cool? So much so that he had a airplane specially painted and registered so he could sit in it and show off how much he thinks human vivisection is awesome?


That is not at all "the same as" visiting a shrine, which would be to show that he is willing to honor those who died ifghting for Japan, even if others think that is inappropriate considering they died fighting in a war of aggression. That "makes sense", if at least from the standpoint of you can see why he would think that is either politically useful or even personally important.


Nobody in Japan is sitting around claiming that Unit 731 ought to be memorialized, not even the most ardent of nationalists. They may very well be in denial about it, which is just as bad, but you don't deny the existence of something by slapping its designation on airplanes. That would be like a holocaust denier sitting around in a car with a "Auschwitz was awesome" bumper sticker.


Again, the idea that this is something other than an unfortunate coincidence simply does not make any sense.

If the Japanese leadership behaves like the Germans usually do, I am perfectly willing to accept that this is a coincidence.  If Angela Merkel appears in a vehicle with nazi symbols painted on it, I will believe that it is a prank and she is the victim.  Or it is a photoshop job.

But alas, the Japanese political leadership's behaviour in recent years is consistent with the hypothesis that this is a deliberate attempt to piss off Japan's neighbours. 

Anyway, how I think is not important.  I believe this photograph is being circulated among Chinese internet users as we speak, and I have reason to believe that they won't think it is a coincidence either. 

I just saw an official statement from the Chinese foreign ministry.  They say no Chinese leader will speak to this Japanese PM, ever.  He can forget going to China.  Not because of this photograph, but because of the shrine visit.  Unless he apologises, which we all know will never happen. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 30, 2013, 09:29:11 AM
This is why there can never be real understanding and peace between Japan and China.  Mono isn't usually a big 'rah-rah' nationalist guy, but when it comes to finding slights and conspiracies in every action the Japanese take, he's practically a Russian or an Arab.  The idea that Japanese voters have a soft spot for the old medical warfare team?  Utterly ridiculous.

As for Tim, he just loves jumping to conclusions without thinking anyways.  This sort of thing is no surprise from him.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on December 30, 2013, 10:00:00 AM
Quote from: Neil on December 30, 2013, 09:29:11 AM
This is why there can never be real understanding and peace between Japan and China.  Mono isn't usually a big 'rah-rah' nationalist guy, but when it comes to finding slights and conspiracies in every action the Japanese take, he's practically a Russian or an Arab.  The idea that Japanese voters have a soft spot for the old medical warfare team?  Utterly ridiculous.

Yeah, and his response makes that pretty clear - it doesn't even matter to him whether it was a coincidence or not, nor does it matter to other Chinese. If you WANT to be offended, then of course you will be very happy to assume the very worst about everything, even if you rationally know it makes no sense at all. *Especailly* if those who ARE rational about it dismiss the explanation as unimportant - Mono doesn't even CARE if it makes sense or not!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 10:27:50 AM
I decided a long time ago that I would no longer allow myself to be worked up over these incidents.  It is their shrine and their mouths.  There really is no point trying to stop them.  They just make themselves look bad with their revisionist antics. 

For the record, I don't think the Japanese voters have a soft spot for unit 731.  I do think, however, that they seem to have a soft spot for leaders who dare to do anything, especially when it comes to defiance of Japan's neighbours. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on December 30, 2013, 02:37:25 PM
Yeah, I'm not seeing that on purpose.  I had heard of the unit, but thought it fairly obscure (While heinous they weren't particularly useful, and they were rather small).  I imagine that there are many regimental numbers that signify military units that committed atrocities in China.  Besides I was under the impression that the Japanese were in denial of what they did (it goes toward their narrative of a victim), if that's so, why display the numbers of a unit known to have committed atrocities?  I don't see this as malice or stupidity, just coincidence.  I thought at first it might represent a date, something that would have more resonance.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 30, 2013, 03:28:03 PM
I just realized something!  In high school Obama was #23 on the basketball team!  He must be honouring the 23rd Division, parts of which carried out the My Lai massacre!  Appalling!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 30, 2013, 03:37:17 PM
Did he: want to be like Mike? Err, he's probably older.  :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on December 30, 2013, 03:57:08 PM
Quote from: Neil on December 30, 2013, 03:28:03 PM
I just realized something!  In high school Obama was #23 on the basketball team!  He must be honouring the 23rd Division, parts of which carried out the My Lai massacre!  Appalling!

:rolleyes: Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 30, 2013, 04:20:18 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 10:27:50 AM
They just make themselves look bad with their revisionist antics. 

could have been worse. They could be claiming all the seas up to the Phillipines
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on December 30, 2013, 07:53:27 PM
Context is key, and because the Japanese are such dicks generally about their WW2 past (including this PM) that's what makes what is likely just a coincidence into a story with the potential to be believed.  And nor can it just be ascribed to the brainwashed Chinese overreacting, since they arent the only ones who feel that way, unfortunately.

In short, if you have a bad track record of something, people are less likely to give you the benefit of the doubt.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on December 30, 2013, 08:29:02 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 30, 2013, 04:20:18 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 30, 2013, 10:27:50 AM
They just make themselves look bad with their revisionist antics. 

could have been worse. They could be claiming all the seas up to the Phillipines
Japan's shame regarding their vicious past is worse than China's total lack of shame regarding their vicious present.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 30, 2013, 08:35:39 PM
Saw an interesting comment by a journo in Japan today that Japan's very friendly with Turkey and he thinks there's parallels. Erdogan and Abe, in his view, both want to fundamentally change their political cultures - for Erdogan that's Kemalism and for Abe it's the 'pacifist' constitution. Which doesn't mean that Japan's going to go on mental and start invading people, they're a nation of pensioners after all.

Also I think it's interesting that Japan's faced with a difficult relationship with China. From a distance it's striking how much their nationalist/pro-military rhetoric seems to be about the past, rather than talking about how they can face China and help deal with China it largely seems to be about redeeming Japan's WW2.

In terms of cui bono, I don't know about the 731 thing but with the shrine I think an obvious bonus is if Abe wants to fundamentally change the constitution he can do that cause the Chinese (and Korea) to release bellicose statements that strengthens his argument that Japan needs to fundamentally change her 'pacifist' constitution. It helps that the US has no ally in the region who can be nearly as useful as Japan, so despite them heavily leaning on him not to go, he doesn't have to listen. For a nationalist in domestic politics it's not that different from the way Chinese politicians behave. Do something provocative to your neighbours, when they respond point to it and say 'see, this is why we need a bigger army.'
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on December 30, 2013, 09:04:08 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 30, 2013, 08:35:39 PM
Saw an interesting comment by a journo in Japan today that Japan's very friendly with Turkey and he thinks there's parallels.
Well, they both seem a little touchy about the naughty things they did in the past.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 30, 2013, 10:13:21 PM
QuoteIn terms of cui bono, I don't know about the 731 thing but with the shrine I think an obvious bonus is if Abe wants to fundamentally change the constitution he can do that cause the Chinese (and Korea) to release bellicose statements that strengthens his argument that Japan needs to fundamentally change her 'pacifist' constitution. It helps that the US has no ally in the region who can be nearly as useful as Japan, so despite them heavily leaning on him not to go, he doesn't have to listen. For a nationalist in domestic politics it's not that different from the way Chinese politicians behave. Do something provocative to your neighbours, when they respond point to it and say 'see, this is why we need a bigger army.'
There could be something to this.
Also a factor is that to the vast majority of people in Japan foreign policy is utterly irrelevant in who they will support.  For the far right however (much less than 10% of the population, I don't even know where to begin with an accurate guestimate) its practically the only thing that matters. Just like the Republicans in the US with abortion right wing Japanese politicians have to appeal to the loony right to secure their position.


On the plane issue...
Definitely true that unit 731 is a pretty obscure reference.  I saw a humerous comment elsewhere that people in Korea got so worked up about it because the papers told them it was a big deal that they should get worked up about.
Odd that the Blue Impulse leader would coincidentally have the same number...but that would appear to be the reason he chose that plane.
Still, I wouldn't put it past Abe to have done it deliberately. There's no way for him to lose. The people in Japan who would be really upset about such a thing already aren't going to support him, to the majority in the middle it is meaningless, meanwhile it gives the far right a giggle at how Abe is doing as he promised and playing the Chinese and Koreans at their own game of trying to wind up their neighbours.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 31, 2013, 01:21:29 AM
Nikkei is up 57% this year.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/japans-nikkei-closes-out-year-57-percent-its-biggest-annual-2D11819011

Surely that should be enough to get people to votes for him? He doesn't need to do this shit to get elected, he does it because at the least he's sympathetic to it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 31, 2013, 03:33:28 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 31, 2013, 01:21:29 AM
Nikkei is up 57% this year.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/japans-nikkei-closes-out-year-57-percent-its-biggest-annual-2D11819011

Surely that should be enough to get people to votes for him? He doesn't need to do this shit to get elected, he does it because at the least he's sympathetic to it.
Taxes are being increased quite drastically (rarely a right wing vote winner), prices are rising and the yen is weak which isn't helping everyone. Domestic companies for instance continue to struggle. His approval rating is on a downward trend.
http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/abe-cabinet-approval-rating-drops-55-cent

That things are generally looking up is indeed bringing him a lot of  support but what politician would turn town a few free percentage points more of the vote.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2013, 03:40:37 AM
Quote from: Tyr on December 31, 2013, 03:33:28 AM
but what politician would turn town a few free percentage points more of the vote.

Some third world dictators would. Getting 101% of the votes might cast doubts about their legitimacy.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on December 31, 2013, 07:55:07 AM
Quote from: Tyr on December 30, 2013, 10:13:21 PM
Odd that the Blue Impulse leader would coincidentally have the same number...but that would appear to be the reason he chose that plane.

The lead plane of the Blue Impulse display team rotates - that particular plane has had the numbers "5" and "7" (IIRC) as well as "1" on its tailplane in recent years; now, if you can find evidence that the rotation was changed so that that particular plane was used for the photoshoot I'll believe there was a conspiracy. Otherwise, it's just a coincidence that probably wasn't even noticed before the fuss started.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on December 31, 2013, 08:57:27 AM
Quote from: Agelastus on December 31, 2013, 07:55:07 AM
Quote from: Tyr on December 30, 2013, 10:13:21 PM
Odd that the Blue Impulse leader would coincidentally have the same number...but that would appear to be the reason he chose that plane.

The lead plane of the Blue Impulse display team rotates - that particular plane has had the numbers "5" and "7" (IIRC) as well as "1" on its tailplane in recent years; now, if you can find evidence that the rotation was changed so that that particular plane was used for the photoshoot I'll believe there was a conspiracy. Otherwise, it's just a coincidence that probably wasn't even noticed before the fuss started.

The "fuss" says a lot more about the mindset of the people who are fussed than it does about Japan.


If people who know, like Mono, are telling me that this is going to have traction even though it is 100% clear to anyone who is capable of even a modicum of reasoned thinking, then I suppose that means I should be aware that in any future conflict or issue that is perhaps not as obvious, at least the Chinese mindset will be driven by irrationality and paranoia. So if nothing else, the incident is a useful indicator in that sense.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 12, 2014, 11:31:10 PM
Thought this was interesting, didn't realize the Chinese were already so involved in securing the sea lanes.

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/01/07/why-chinas-gulf-piracy-fight-matters/?hpt=wo_r1
Quote
08:36 AM ET
Why China's Gulf piracy fight matters

By Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, Special to CNN

Editor's note: Andrew S. Erickson is an associate professor in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College. Austin M. Strange is a research associate at the China Maritime Studies Institute. The views expressed are the authors' alone.

December 26, Chairman Mao's birthday, is always a significant date for China. But last month's 120th anniversary came at a time when his legacy is increasingly subject to vigorous debate among the Chinese public, media, academia and even officialdom. And it also established a new landmark in contemporary Chinese history, an unprecedented milestone in Chinese foreign policy that Mao would surely be proud of: the 5th year anniversary of China's naval anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden.

To honor the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)'s contributions to maritime security off Somalia, the China Maritime Museum, located in Shanghai, opened a special exhibit that runs into March, and which features photos and actual mission mementos. Chinese media outlets continue to roll out a flurry of articles commemorating the occasion. But what is the actual significance of Chinese anti-piracy activities? And what has China accomplished there over the past five years?

First and foremost, China's naval foray into the Gulf of Aden, beginning in 2008, is a resounding response from Beijing to threats against its overseas interests. Chinese people and economic assets continue to disperse throughout the world at record pace nearly four decades after Deng Xiaoping's opening up reforms. As a result, nontraditional security breaches outside of China, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks (and, in this case, maritime piracy) pose growing threats to Chinese national interests.

The ocean is at the center of China's "Going out" policy: China relies on seaborne shipping for the vast majority of its trade, and PLAN is emerging as China's most prominent service. Both Beijing's calculated, resolute response to Somali pirate attacks on Chinese citizens, as well as its steadfast commitment to protecting Chinese and foreign ships over the last five years, signal China's staunch commitment to ensuring safe conditions for Chinese overseas.

Statistics accumulated over the past five years make clear Beijing's commitment to security sea lines of communication (SLOCs). According to state media, the PLAN has dispatched 15,000 personnel over 16 escort taskforce flotillas since 2008, averaging three per year. Taskforces, which usually consist of China's most advanced frigates, destroyers and amphibious ships, have escorted 5,463 Chinese and foreign commercial ships – over 1,000 ships per year. PLAN forces have also thwarted more than 30 potential pirate attacks, rescued over 40 commercial ships, and escorted 11 vessels previously taken by pirates. Moreover, the fact that such information is actively recorded and publicized demonstrates the state's desire to derive maximum domestic and international publicity benefits from the missions.

Besides safeguarding national interests, China's investment in Gulf of Aden security continues to sharpen the abilities of PLAN personnel, platforms, and institutions. Operational achievements such as improved logistical supply chains, intra-navy coordination breakthroughs and greater focus on sailors' morale are a few highlights of the mission that have real consequences for broader Chinese military development. Chinese sailors have, to put it bluntly, used Gulf of Aden operations to grow from "maritime rookies" to "confident seadogs."

These lessons are readily apparent to China's navy and the rest of the world. Yet the PLAN's Gulf of Aden five-year anniversary is a milestone for reasons beyond the military domain. For those interested in China's role in 21st century international society, five years off the coast of Somalia have allowed the opportunity to observe China in its first protracted, direct operational role within the context of international security outside of East Asia. The PLAN has embodied the spirit of "creative involvement" off Somalia, operating independent of but in parallel with Western and other naval forces.

More broadly, the missions signal that Beijing appears willing to cooperate with the United States and other naval powers to tackle nontraditional security challenges placing all sides "in the same boat." Those calling on the Middle Kingdom to grow into a responsible stakeholder following persistent economic development and ascendancy in status can therefore cite Gulf of Aden anti-piracy as a modest but welcome example.

It may not be surprising to see states joining forces against nontraditional threats like piracy since there are clear economic and political incentives for cooperating rather than competing. But the fact that China continues to work actively with U.S., Japan and European navies off Somalia is unprecedented given choppy maritime relations between these states in the Asia-Pacific. The Gulf of Aden has played the foil to China's assertive reputation in the contentious East and South China Seas, where Beijing's behavior is increasingly perceived as counterproductive and downright dangerous.

True, while five years is a significant commitment, it would be unrealistic to suggest that the Gulf of Aden experience might directly impact maritime relations in other regions, such as the Yellow, East, and South China Seas – rife with tensions over core interests between Beijing and its neighbors. Yet China's global maritime engagement stretches far beyond the waters of East Asia, and the world will expect more genuine contributions from Beijing as its stake in international security grows regardless of the state of affairs in China's immediate neighborhood. Indeed, in the 21st century China's foreign policy is being pulled in different directions as Beijing strives to balance traditional principles with pragmatic needs.

Ultimately, while tensions remain close to home, five years of uninterrupted anti-piracy deployments in distant seas reflects a qualitative improvement in Chinese global security engagement, a development that should be welcomed by the international community. If China and other states can look to the Gulf of Aden as a model for pragmatic cooperation, it might encourage a more active yet more transparent Chinese presence in other areas of international security.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 12, 2014, 11:36:48 PM
Disgusting!  :mad:

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/28/how-chinese-censorship-is-reaching-overseas/
QuoteHow Chinese censorship is reaching overseas

By Sarah Cook, Special to CNN

Editor's note: Sarah Cook is a senior research analyst for East Asia at Freedom House and author of report The Long Shadow of Chinese Censorship, which was released October 22 by the National Endowment for Democracy's Center for International Media Assistance. The views expressed are her own.

The efforts of China's leaders to prevent its citizens from circulating information inconvenient to the ruling Communist Party are well known. But while censorship is a daily reality for media outlets inside mainland China, their counterparts abroad are increasingly finding themselves under pressure as well.

China's leaders, it seems, have become more ambitious in their attempts to control the news.

Take last year, when reports surfaced that China's ambassador to the United States met with Bloomberg's editor-in-chief to try to persuade the outlet not to run a story about the finances of Communist Party leader Xi Jinping's family. Last May, meanwhile, popular Taiwanese talk show host Cheng Hung-yi resigned after station executives allegedly tried to stop his program from touching on topics sensitive to Beijing. And back in 2011, reportedly at Beijing's urging, a court in Hanoi sentenced two Vietnamese citizens who practice Falun Gong to prison for transmitting radio broadcasts about human rights abuses and corruption from their farm to listeners in China.

These are far from the only examples of how the Chinese Communist Party's media controls extend past China's borders, in a push documented in a report published last week by the Center for International Media Assistance, which examines a range of media outlets based outside China, from major international media to local outlets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and elsewhere. And the findings are clear: the "China Factor" looms over newsrooms across the globe.

As the report notes, the pressure has sometimes been overt, with Chinese officials impeding independent reporting by barring foreign correspondents from the sites of significant incidents, pressuring senior executives not to publish content, or simply refusing to issue visas.

But more common – and arguably more effective – has been the carrot and stick approach that induces subtle self-censorship among media owners and outlets. Those perceived as friendly to Beijing might, for example, be rewarded with advertising, access to Chinese audiences, lucrative contracts for non-media enterprises, and even political appointments. Those deemed too critical can face not just visa restrictions for reporters, but lost advertising and blocked websites. As a result, some outlets have become increasingly wary over covering "hot button" issues such as the persecution of Tibetans, Uighurs and Falun Gong practitioners.

More from CNN: China 'employs 2 million to police internet'

Indirect pressure can also be applied via proxies, including advertisers, satellite firms, and foreign governments, with out-of-favor outlets likely to be boycotted or have their transmission signals cut.

Thus, it has not only been media organizations themselves that have moved to restrict access to information. Earlier this month, CNN reported that Apple had been accused of "kowtowing to the Chinese government" after "pulling from its China App Store a product enabling users to circumvent firewalls and access restricted sites." This wasn't the first time since 2011 that Apple had removed apps that people in China used to access independent overseas Chinese media or bookstores.

A more extreme example of how Western businesses can get caught in the middle of transnational Chinese censorship occurred in 2007. Last year, a WikiLeaks cable suggested that Chinese security officials had summoned and interrogated NASDAQ's chief representative in China, U.S. citizen Lawrence Pan.

According to the cable, the questioning focused on a journalist who had been reporting from the exchange's New York headquarters for New Tang Dynasty Television (NTDTV), an outlet founded by Falun Gong practitioners in the United States to broadcast news and cultural programming to Chinese audiences. The cable added that Pan, "to secure his release, may have pledged to Chinese authorities that NASDAQ would no longer allow" such access. Indeed, starting in February 2007, NTDTV's correspondent was suddenly barred from the building after reporting from there on a daily basis for more than a year.

Some international companies have been more proactive in their assistance to Chinese censors. In 2008, Reporters Without Borders released the transcript of a telephone recording in which a representative of the French satellite company Eutelsat admitted that the firm had cut the signal of that same television station to "show a good gesture to the Chinese government."

While some of these dynamics date back to the 1990s, they have intensified and expanded over the past five years. Physical assaults against foreign reporters in China have become more violent, while Beijing's efforts to influence newsroom decisions in Hong Kong have intensified, expanding to topics touching on the territory's internal politics. In Taiwan, meanwhile, self-censorship is increasing, as media owners seek new sources of revenue from mainland entities. And major Western news outlets have found themselves facing the kinds of restrictions – including wholesale website blocking and intrusive cyber-attacks – usually reserved for dissident Chinese websites.

The paradoxical combination of the Communist Party feeling emboldened internationally and insecure domestically has only fueled this trend. With more than half of China's population now accessing the Internet, and with some political content going viral despite domestic censors' efforts, the Party's nervousness of overseas news trickling in has increased.

These dynamics have a damaging real-world impact. For international audiences, the information targeted for censorship includes topics that have global implications, such as human rights abuses, high-level corruption, and environmental pollution. For Chinese, the stakes are even higher. Overseas media outlets offer a vital source of information on matters with life-or-death consequences and a precious forum for debating the past, present, and future of their country.

Still, there are clear limits to Beijing's reach. Media outlets around the world daily put out news that the Communist Party would likely prefer unreported, while journalists, activists, owners, and independent courts have pushed back against pressure and scored some important victories. The result is a complex and ever-changing negotiation over where the "red line" lies.

As China's international role expands, this transnational tug-of-war will become more important. Supporters of media freedom – be they journalists, policymakers, or news consumers – must therefore develop an open-eyed strategy for protecting and expanding the free flow of information about one of the world's most prominent nations.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 12, 2014, 11:44:32 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 12, 2014, 11:31:10 PM
Thought this was interesting, didn't realize the Chinese were already so involved in securing the sea lanes.

That's because you haven't been paying attention, peg leg.

QuoteUltimately, while tensions remain close to home, five years of uninterrupted anti-piracy deployments in distant seas reflects a qualitative improvement in Chinese global security engagement, a development that should be welcomed by the international community. If China and other states can look to the Gulf of Aden as a model for pragmatic cooperation, it might encourage a more active yet more transparent Chinese presence in other areas of international security.

The Chinese are only going to be as "transparent" about their presence overseas as much as it plays into the orchestration of the big PR machine of a benevolent China.  Sea of Aden, sure.  Scarborough Shoal, not so much.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: 11B4V on January 17, 2014, 12:06:42 PM
Clone soldiers next?

Quote
China Has the World's First 'Cloning Factory'

(Newser) – Remember when a cloned animal was a big deal? Welcome to the brave new world in Shenzhen, China, where the company BGI is churning out 500 cloned pigs a year, reports David Shukman at the BBC. Shukman got a tour of the facility and even watched the surgical procedure in a not-so-sanitary operating room—two sows are implanted a day, with a success rate of about 80%. "The technology involved is not particularly novel," he writes, "but what is new is the application of mass production." In fact, one company scientist uses the phrase "cloning factory" to describe what's going on. The pigs are being produced not to eat but to be the subjects of drug tests; many have had their genes modified to make them, for example, more susceptible to Alzheimer's.

On the genetics front, the company has a staggering 156 gene-sequencing machines on site (Europe's largest gene-sequencing center has one-fifth that amount) and even bought a US company that makes them. What lucky animals make the cut? "If it tastes good you should sequence it," says BGI's chief executive. "You should know what's in the gene of that species." Also, "anything that looks cute: panda, polar bear, penguin, you should really sequence it." The company says it's all for the greater in good terms of food production and health care. "In many ways, that's pretty cool," writes Jamie Condliffe at Gizmodo. "This was supposed to be future, but it's happening here and now—but the sheer pace and questionable standards described by Shukman provide at least some cause for concern." (More wild cloning news: Scientists clone "unclonable" tree.)

http://www.newser.com/story/180749/china-has-the-worlds-first-cloning-factory.html
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 17, 2014, 06:40:12 PM
QuoteAlso, "anything that looks cute: panda, polar bear, penguin, you should really sequence it." The company says it's all for the greater in good terms of food production and health care.

I bet.  Little yellow bastards.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 17, 2014, 07:24:31 PM
I am a bit sceptical about this report.  Is the traditional way of raising pigs really that expensive or difficult as to warrant the commercial production of cloned pigs? 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on January 17, 2014, 07:26:14 PM
A machine for pigs?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on January 18, 2014, 02:49:39 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 17, 2014, 07:24:31 PM
I am a bit sceptical about this report.  Is the traditional way of raising pigs really that expensive or difficult as to warrant the commercial production of cloned pigs?

They do that to obtain desirable traits. Actually the pigs are probably raised in the traiditional way once the embryo is created.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on January 22, 2014, 05:04:38 AM
http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/01/21/actualidad/1390325349_757662.html

Quote
[Leaked Records Reveal Offshore Holdings of China's Elite
Files Shed Light On More Than 20,000 Tax Haven Clients from Hong Kong and Mainland China

Chinaleaks: Los papeles de los paraísos fiscales
两万多名中国内地及香港投资者在避税天堂注册公司
MARINA WALKER GUEVARA, GERARD RYLE, ALEXA OLESEN, MAR CABRA, MICHAEL HUDSON AND CHRISTOPH GIESEN 21 ENE 2014 - 18:38 CET
Close relatives of China's top leaders have held secretive offshore companies in tax havens that helped shroud the Communist elite's wealth, a leaked cache of documents reveals.

The confidential files include details of a real estate company co-owned by current President Xi Jinping's brother-in-law and British Virgin Islands companies set up by former Premier Wen Jiabao's son and also by his son-in-law.


Nearly 22,000 offshore clients with addresses in mainland China and Hong Kong appear in the files obtained by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. Among them are some of China's most powerful men and women — including at least 15 of China's richest, members of the National People's Congress and executives from state-owned companies entangled in corruption scandals.

PricewaterhouseCoopers, UBS and other Western banks and accounting firms play a key role as middlemen in helping Chinese clients set up trusts and companies in the British Virgin Islands, Samoa and other offshore centers usually associated with hidden wealth, the records show. For instance, Swiss financial giant Credit Suisse helped Wen Jiabao's son create his BVI company while his father was leading the country.

The files come from two offshore firms — Singapore-based Portcullis TrustNet and BVI-based Commonwealth Trust Limited — that help clients create offshore companies, trusts and bank accounts. They are part of a cache of 2.5 million leaked files that ICIJ has sifted through with help from more than 40 reporting partners in Europe, North America, Asia and other regions.

Since last April, ICIJ's stories have triggered official inquiries, high-profile resignations and policy changes around the world.

Until now, the details on China and Hong Kong had not been disclosed.

The data illustrates the outsized dependency of the world's second largest economy on tiny islands thousands of miles away. As the country has moved from an insular communist system to a socialist/capitalist hybrid, China has become a leading market for offshore havens that peddle secrecy, tax shelters and streamlined international deal making.

Every corner of China's economy, from oil to green energy and from mining to arms trading, appears in the ICIJ data.

Chinese officials aren't required to disclose their assets publicly and until now citizens have remained largely in the dark about the parallel economy that can allow the powerful and well-connected to avoid taxes and keep their dealings secret. By some estimates, between $1 trillion and $4 trillion in untraced assets have left the country since 2000.

The growing onshore and offshore wealth of China's elites "may not be strictly illegal," but it is often tied to "conflict of interest and covert use of government power," said Minxin Pei, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California. "If there is real transparency, then the Chinese people will have a much better idea of how corrupt the system is [and] how much wealth has been amassed by government officials through illegal means."

Top-level corruption is a politically sensitive issue in China as the country's economy cools and its wealth gap continues to widen. The country's leadership has cracked down on journalists who have exposed the hidden wealth of top officials and their families as well as citizens who have demanded that government officials disclose their personal assets.

In November, a mainland Chinese news organization that was working with ICIJ to analyze the offshore data withdrew from the reporting partnership, explaining that authorities had warned it not to publish anything about the material.

ICIJ is keeping the identity of the news outlet confidential to protect journalists from government retaliation. Other partners in the investigation include the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao, the Taiwanese magazine CommonWealth and the German newspaper SüddeutscheZeitung.

The ICIJ team spent months sifting through the files and the leaked lists of offshore users. In most cases, names were registered in Romanized form, not Chinese characters, making matching extremely difficult. Many offshore users had provided a passport as well as an address when they set up their companies, which made it possible to confirm identities in many but not all cases. Some suspected princelings and officials in the files could not be confirmed and have not been included in this story.

Along with the China and Hong Kong names, ICIJ's files also include the names of roughly 16,000 offshore clients from Taiwan. ICIJ will continue to publish stories with its partners in the next few days and will release the Greater China names on its Offshore Leaks Database on Jan. 23.

Princelings go offshore

China's Politburo Standing Committee is the all-powerful group of seven (formerly nine) men who run the Communist Party and the country. The records obtained by ICIJ show that relatives of at least five current or former members of this small circle have incorporated companies in the Cook Islands or British Virgin Islands.

China's "red nobility" — elites tied by blood or marriage to the current leadership or Party elders — are also popularly known as "princelings." Ordinary Chinese have grown increasingly angry over their vast wealth and what many see as the hypocrisy of officials who tout "people-first" ideals but look the other way while their families peddle power and influence for personal gain.

The leaked offshore records include details of a BVI company 50 percent owned by President Xi's brother-in-law Deng Jiagui. The husband of Xi's older sister, Deng is a multimillionaire real estate developer and an investor in metals used in cell phones and other electronics. The records show the other half of Excellence Effort Property Development was owned by yet another BVI company belonging to Li Wa and Li Xiaoping, property tycoons who made news in July by winning a $2 billion bid to purchase commercial real estate in Shenzhen.

Since taking over as the Communist Party's top official in 2012, Xi has sought to burnish his image with an aggressive anti-graft campaign, promising to go after official corruption involving both low-level "flies" and high-level "tigers." Yet he has crushed a grassroots movement that called for government officials to publicly declare their assets. Wen Jiabao, who stepped down as premier in 2013 after a decade-long tenure, also styled himself as a reformer, cultivating an image of grandfatherly concern for China's poor.

The ICIJ offshore files reveal that Wen's son Wen Yunsong set up a BVI-registered company, Trend Gold Consultants, with help from the Hong Kong office of Credit Suisse in 2006. Wen Yunsong was the lone director and shareholder of the firm, which appears to have been dissolved in 2008.

Bare-bones company structures are often created to open bank accounts in the offshore firm's name, helping obscure the relationship to the real account owner. It isn't immediately clear from the documents what Trend Gold Consultants was used for. A U.S.-educated venture capitalist, Wen Yunsong co-founded a China-focused private equity firm and in 2012 became chairman of China's Satellite Communications Co., a state-owned firm that aspires to be Asia's largest satellite operator.

ICIJ made repeated attempts to reach Wen Yunsong and other individuals named in this story. Only a few responded. Wen was among those who did not. Citing confidentiality rules, a Credit Suisse spokesman said the bank is "unable to comment on this matter."

The ICIJ files also shed light on the BVI's previously unreported role in a burgeoning scandal involving Wen Jiabao's daughter, Wen Ruchun, also known as Lily Chang. The New York Times has reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co. paid a firm that she ran, Fullmark Consultants, $1.8 million in consulting fees. U.S. securities regulators are investigating the relationship as part of a probe into the bank's alleged use of princelings to increase its influence in China.

Fullmark Consultants appears to have been set up in a manner that obscured Wen Ruchun's relationship to the firm, the ICIJ files indicate. Her husband Liu Chunhang, a former Morgan Stanley finance guru, created Fullmark Consultants in the BVI in 2004 and was the sole director and shareholder of the firm until 2006, the same year he took a government job at the agency that polices Chinese securities markets.

Liu transferred control of the company, the ICIJ files show, to a Wen family friend, Zhang Yuhong, a wealthy businesswoman and colleague of Wen Jiabao's brother. The Times reported that Zhang also helped control other Wen family assets including diamond and jewelry ventures.

The ICIJ files show that offshore provider Portcullis TrustNet billed UBS AG for a certificate of good standing for Fullmark Consultants in October 2005, indicating a business relationship between Fullmark and the Swiss bank. In response to ICIJ's questions, UBS issued a statement saying its "know-your-client" policies as well as procedures to deal with politically-sensitive clients are among "the strictest in the industry."

A 2007 U.S. Department of State cable passed along a source's tip that Premier Wen was "disgusted with his family's activities," and that "Wen's wife and children all have a reputation as people who can 'get things done' for the right price." The cable, part of the Wikileaks document dump, reported that Wen's kin "did not necessarily take bribes, [but] they are amenable to receiving exorbitant 'consulting fees.' "

The records also include incorporations by relatives of Deng Xiaoping, former Premier Li Peng, and former President Hu Jintao.

China experts say that the growing wealth and business interests of the princelings, including offshore holdings, are a dangerous liability for the ruling Communist Party but that people in leadership positions are too involved to stop it.

"What's the point of running the Communist Party if you can't get a couple billion for your family?" said Steve Dickinson, a China-based American lawyer who has investigated fraud cases involving BVI companies. "The issue is enormous and has tremendous significance for China, and the fact that everybody dances around it and doesn't want to talk about it is understandable but scandalous."

China embraces offshore

The story of China's involvement with the offshore world begins with paramount leader Deng Xiaoping's deepening of economic reforms in the early 1990s.

Laws reorganizing China's economy drove many Chinese offshore because they were written with state-owned enterprises in mind, not fledgling ventures like the entrepreneur trying to "market the latest iPhone app," according to Don Clarke, a China specialist at the George Washington University Law School in Washington, D.C.

Western bankers, accountants and investors wary of doing business on strictly Chinese terms also pushed the offshore model.

"It was us, the foreigners, that imposed this," said Rocky Lee, head of the Greater China corporate law practice of Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft. "It had to do with the foreign investors' general discomfort with Chinese rules and regulations."

Other factors — including tightened capital controls within China as a result of the 1990s Asian debt crisis — also nudged Chinese offshore. Many flocked to Hong Kong, then still a British territory, to incorporate businesses. As the 1997 handover back to China approached, though, Hong Kong itself began to look risky and many companies sought more far-flung offshore destinations.

The British Virgin Islands became a favorite haven for Chinese wanting to move businesses and cash offshore.

China's tax regime favored foreign investment, helping fuel the push to incorporate in the BVI and other offshore centers. Some Chinese manufacturers, for example, reduced their taxes by a maneuver known as "round-tripping" — setting up subsidiaries outside the country, then selling their products at low cost to the subsidiaries, allowing the parent companies to avoid taxes by showing little or no profits inside China. The offshore entities in turn resold the goods at profitable markup — then slipped the profits back to the parents as untaxed "foreign investment" from the BVI or Hong Kong.

Today 40 percent of the BVI's offshore business comes from China and other Asian nations, according to BVI authorities.

Frank Savage, the BVI's governor from 1998 to 2002, says the islands helped cultivate the relationship by persuading Chinese authorities that they were a "well-regulated territory with a robust and sound legal system."

Critics of the offshore system, though, see the BVI in a different light — as a "no-questions-asked" haven for shadowy dealings. Tax Justice Network, an advocacy group headquartered in the U.S. and the U.K., says BVI offshore entities have been linked to "scandal after scandal after scandal" — the result of a corporate secrecy regime that creates an "effective carte blanche for BVI companies to hide and facilitate all manner of crimes and abuses."

Among the important Chinese who went offshore in the late 1990s was Fu Liang, the son of Peng Zhen, one of the "Eight Elders" of the Communist Party and a top leader of the National People's Congress in the 1980s.

Offshore Leaks records show Fu — who has invested in railroads, yachting clubs and golf courses on the mainland — controlled at least five offshore companies established in the BVI between 1997 and 2000. He used one of them, South Port Development Limited, to acquire a Philippines hotel in 2000.

TrustNet, the offshore services provider, helped Fu set up his offshore companies. By 2000, Trustnet was among the offshore services firms that were making an all-out drive to sign up clients from China, doing marketing meetings at the Shanghai offices of what were then known as the "Big 5" accounting firms: KPMG, Ernst & Young, Pricewaterhouse, Deloitte & Touche, and Arthur Andersen.

The audit firm now known as PricewaterhouseCoopers helped incorporate more than 400 offshore entities through TrustNet for clients from the mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan, the ICIJ records show. Swiss banking giant UBS helped set up more than 1,000 offshore structures via TrustNet for clients from those three markets.

UBS Hong Kong helped Yang Huiyan, China's richest woman, with an estimated net worth of US$ 8.3 billion, establish a BVI company in 2006. Yang, who inherited a real estate fortune from her father, did not respond to questions about her offshore company, Joy House Enterprises Limited.

The following year the Swiss bank referred another Chinese real estate billionaire, Zhang Xin, to TrustNet. Zhang, founder of Soho China, a company that has reshaped much of the Beijing skyline, recently made headlines by buying a $26 million Manhattan townhouse. Through a representative, Zhang declined to answer questions about her BVI company Commune Investment Ltd., a name similar to that of her exclusive boutique hotel outside Beijing, the Commune by the Great Wall.

Li Jinyuan, a business tycoon and philanthropist with a net worth estimated at $1.2 billion in 2011, was director of seven BVI companies that PricewaterhouseCoopers helped incorporate between 2004 and 2008. According to the ICIJ files, the BVI companies appear to be connected to his Tiens Group conglomerate, which has interests in biotechnology, tourism, e-commerce and real estate.

In a 2005 marketing memo marked "strictly private and confidential," TrustNet staffers were encouraged to improve ties with Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. They courted Credit Suisse and UBS with wine and cheese sessions. On the mainland, where foreign banks were restricted, they took a different tack: "In Shanghai, we will target international law firms and accounting firms," the 2005 memo says.

The marketing campaign paid off. The number of companies TrustNet set up for clients in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan tripled from 1,500 to 4,800 between 2003 and 2007.

The TrustNet clients who incorporated companies during this period include two current delegates to the National People's Congress, China's legislature.

Wei Jianghong, who represents Anhui province in the legislature while serving as chairman of state-owned Tongling Nonferrous Metals, was a director of Tong Guan Resources Holdings, a BVI company set up in 2006. Tongling used Tong Guan to invest $10 million in a $50 million copper processing project in Chile in 2007.

Another delegate with offshore holdings is Ma Huateng, the founder of China's leading online chat company, Tencent. Ma is worth $10 billion and is ranked No. 5 on Forbes' list of billionaires in China. In 2007, he became director of TCH Pi Limited in the BVI with fellow Tencent founder Zhang Zhidong.

A spokeswoman for Ma said TCH Pi is a Tencent company that "has nothing to do with [Ma or Zhang] personally," but the firm doesn't show up in Tencent corporate filings, and its purpose isn't clear.

Profits and corruption

Things have changed dramatically for China since it first dipped its toe into the offshore world. The country is wealthier and offshore centers serve increasingly as channels not only for capital that "round-trips" out of the country and back again, but also for overseas investment and accessing markets for metals, minerals and other resources.

Defenders of China's offshore push say the offshore system has helped boost the country's economy.

"I think we should face the reality, which is that Chinese capital is flowing out. I think it's actually a beneficial thing," said Mei Xinyu, a researcher at China's Commerce Ministry. "Of course I support the idea that a company should incorporate in its host country. But if the host country can't provide the right environment, then incorporating the company in an offshore center is actually a practical choice."

With markets in China often hamstrung by red tape and government intervention, incorporating offshore can smooth the way to do business, said William Vlcek, author of Offshore Finance and Small States: Sovereignty, Size and Money.

There's also evidence, though, that many Chinese companies and individuals have used offshore entities to engage in illicit or illegal behavior.

In September Zhang Shuguang, a former high-level Chinese railway executive, pleaded guilty to criminal charges in the wake of allegations that he'd funneled $2.8 billion into offshore accounts. An internal government report released by the Bank of China revealed that public officials — including executives at state-owned companies — had embezzled more than $120 billion out of China since the mid-1980s, some of it funneled through the BVI.

Portcullis TrustNet helped state-run shipping giant Cosco incorporate a BVI company in 2000. Among the numerous directors of Cosco Information Technology Limited were current Cosco Group chairman Ma Zehua and Song Jun, an executive who would stand trial in 2011 for embezzlement and bribery. After Cosco sent Song to help oversee a Qingdao subsidiary in 2001, he set up a fake BVI joint venture partner and used it to siphon millions from the building of Qingdao's gleaming Cosco Plaza, prosecutors said. State news service Xinhua said he embezzled $6 million, took $1 million in bribes from a Taiwanese business partner and purchased 37 apartments in Beijing, Tianjin and Qingdao with his ill-gotten earnings. His trial was adjourned but no verdict was publicly announced.

China's corruption-plagued oil industry — which recently has been the target of criminal investigations that have led to the suspension of key oil executives — is a big player in the offshore world. China's three big state-owned oil companies, which are counted among the largest companies in the world, are linked to dozens of BVI companies that show up in the ICIJ data.

Former PetroChina executive Li Hualin, who was dismissed in August after coming under investigation for alleged "serious violations of discipline", often a party shorthand for corruption, was the director of two BVI companies, the ICIJ files reveal.

While some of these offshore firms are disclosed in corporate filings, several others linked to individual executives — including Zhang Bowen of PetroChina's natural gas distribution arm Kunlun Energy and Yang Hua of China National Offshore Oil Corporation — appear to operate in the dark, and their purpose is not clear. PetroChina and CNOOC did not respond to ICIJ's repeated requests for comment.

Other scandal-tainted Chinese who have used the BVI to do business include Huang Guangyu, once China's richest man. The ICIJ records show that he and his wife Du Juan set up a maze of at least 31 BVI companies between 2001 and 2008 as they built the largest consumer electronics retail chain in China.

The husband, Huang, was sentenced to 14 years in prison in 2010 after Chinese courts convicted him of insider trading, bribery and stock price manipulation. Du Juan was convicted of related charges but was released from prison in 2010 after serving a brief time.

While Huang is in prison and many of his assets are frozen, his business empire survives through his offshore network of companies. In 2011, one of his BVI firms, Eagle Vantage Assets Management, made a bid for a retired British aircraft carrier that Huang wanted to turn into a luxury shopping mall (the Brits in the end decided to scrap the ship).

He still owns more than 30 percent of Gome, his electronics retailer, via two companies in the BVI, Shining Crown Holdings and Shine Group.

Offshore's future

As concerns grow about the wealth of corporate oligarchs, government officials and their families, some Chinese have braved the government's anger by raising questions about corruption.

A grassroots group, the New Citizens Movement, uses the Internet and small demonstrations to press for greater transparency. "How can you fight corruption if you don't even dare to disclose your personal assets?" the group's founder, civil rights lawyer Xu Zhiyong, wrote this spring.

The government's response has been swift. It has arrested Xu and detained more than 20 other members of the group, indicting some for "disturbing public order" or "illegal assembly," charges frequently used to silence dissidents.

The government has also cracked down on foreign media that have focused attention on the gap between wealth and poverty in China. After The New York Times and Bloomberg News reported on the onshore assets of China's princelings, the government blocked their websites and delayed approving visas for their journalists.

After years of inaction, the U.S., the U.K. and international organizations have begun pushing reforms that, they say, would reduce offshore abuses. China has been less aggressive in pressing for changes in the offshore system.

Big loopholes in tax laws have allowed Chinese individuals to operate with relative freedom offshore. They weren't required to report their foreign holdings.

"Chinese policy makers didn't envision individuals absconding with that much money," Lee, the Beijing-based corporate lawyer, said.

Now mainland authorities are moving to get a handle on the flow of private wealth offshore. New rules that went into effect Jan. 1 require Chinese to report their overseas assets.

How aggressively China joins global efforts to reshape the offshore system may have a big impact on the current push for reform. Just as China has become an increasingly important player in the global economy, it has also become more important as a supplier of clients to the market for offshore accounts and companies.

A 2013 industry-sponsored poll of 200-plus bankers and other offshore professionals found that "China-related demand" is the key driver in the offshore market's growth. The chief of a BVI offshore services firm said in the survey: "China is the most important location for client origination for business in the next five years."

I'm shocked, SHOCKED.

Apparently China is blocking media carrying the information.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on January 22, 2014, 11:57:54 AM
I enjoyed the CNN reporter getting roughed up.

chick cop starts steering him away from courthouse
CNN reporter: I HAVE MAH RIGHTS
Reporter's head goes into side of minivan
Ed Anger gets erection
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on January 22, 2014, 05:54:27 PM
The Chinese like to hoard their gold.  That's some Dick Fucking Tracy detective work right there.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2014, 12:13:07 PM
Decent interview. (http://www.businessinsider.com/ian-bremmer-davos-2014-1)


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 24, 2014, 12:50:03 PM
The Japan policy is tactically sound but strategically incoherent.  Conflict with Japan would be insane - there is no gain for China other than rallying popular support internally (but likely in way the Party can't ultimately control).  There are no strategic interests of significance.  The disputed islands themselves are useless.  If China's ultimate goal is to achieve economic dominance over the offshore resources, that is easily within its grasp - but its aggressive assertion of territorial rights has been entirely counterproductive towards that end - they have actually managed to stir up a unanimous (if un-unified) coalition of neighboring states against those claims, raising the specter of encirclement.  I do not think the departure from Dengist strategic subtlety is part of some carefully worked out plan; rather it is a symptom of a breakdown of consensus within and among the Party and the military/defense organs about how to exercise China's growing power.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 31, 2014, 07:20:53 PM
Happy New Year!!!


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BfV8GUSCQAAEkx7.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 31, 2014, 08:27:30 PM
Nice. :cheers:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 24, 2014, 07:52:17 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/23/us-china-germany-idUSBREA1M12520140223
QuoteExclusive: China, eyeing Japan, seeks WW2 focus for Xi during Germany visit
BY BEN BLANCHARD AND MICHAEL MARTINA

(Reuters) - China wants to make World War Two a key part of a trip by President Xi Jinping to Germany next month, much to Berlin's discomfort, diplomatic sources said, as Beijing tries to use German atonement for its wartime past to embarrass Japan.

China has increasingly contrasted Germany and its public contrition for the Nazi regime to Japan, where repeated official apologies for wartime suffering are sometimes undercut by contradictory comments by conservative politicians.

Ties between the two Asian rivals worsened when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine on December 26, which China sees as a symbol of Tokyo's past militarism because it honors wartime leaders along with millions of war dead.

Xi will visit Germany in late March, as well as France, the Netherlands and Belgium, Beijing-based diplomats said. China's Foreign Ministry declined to comment on Xi's agenda as the trip has yet to be formally announced.

"China wants a strong focus on World War Two when Xi visits Germany and Germany is not happy," said one diplomatic source who has been briefed on China's plans for the Xi trip.

The German government declined to comment. But the diplomatic sources said Germany did not want to get dragged into the dispute between China and Japan, and dislikes China constantly bringing up Germany's painful past.

A second diplomatic source with knowledge of the trip said China had proposed Xi visit the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin. When that was immediately rejected by Germany, Beijing suggested Xi go to Berlin's Neue Wache Memorial, which honors war dead but not recognized war criminals.

"The Holocaust is a no go area," the source said, adding it was unclear if the Neue Wache Memorial visit would go ahead.

Germany does not want the negative legacy of the war to dominate or take centre stage during a state visit, the source added, explaining the objection to the Holocaust Memorial visit.

China wanted German officials to go to Japan and tell them how to cope with history, the source added.

PROPAGANDA OFFENSIVE

It is not clear exactly what Xi wants to say about the war while in Germany, which has strong commercial links with China, but Chinese leaders have mentioned the subject in recent visits to Europe.

In 2012, then premier Wen Jiabao went to the former Auschwitz death camp, located in what was then Nazi-occupied Poland, saying: "Only those who remember history can build a good future."

Japanese leaders have repeatedly apologized for suffering caused by the country's wartime actions, including a landmark 1995 apology by then prime minister Tomiichi Murayama. But remarks by conservative politicians periodically cast doubt on Tokyo's sincerity.

Taking questions in parliament on Thursday, Abe said his government would stick by past apologies.

"As I've said before, in the past many nations, especially those in Asia, suffered great damage and pain due to our nation. Our government recognizes this, as have the governments that have gone before, and will continue this stance," Abe said.

Sino-Japanese ties are not just plagued by China's bitter memories of Japan's occupation of parts of the country before and during World War Two, but also by a territorial row and regional rivalry. Relations chilled after a feud over disputed islands in the East China Sea flared in 2012.

Some experts say China's campaign against Japan has helped Beijing shift some of the debate away from its growing military assertiveness in Asia, including double digit defense spending increases and the creation of an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea that was condemned by Tokyo and Washington.

China pressed home its propaganda offensive against Japan last week during a government-organized visit for foreign reporters to the site of the Nanjing massacre.

Reporters were taken to see the house where a German businessman called John Rabe lived, a man lionizedin China for his role in protecting Chinese from Japanese troops who rampaged through the city, then known as Nanking, in late 1937.

China says Japanese troops killed 300,000 people. A post-war Allied tribunal put the death toll at 142,000.

"Any group of people can make a historical mistake, but the Germans have admitted to it and said that they wouldn't allow such a thing to happen again," said Zhu Chengshan, curator of the memorial hall for the victims of the massacre.

"This is an amazing historical perspective that the Germans have. The Japanese, on the other hand, are exactly the opposite."

ABE DEFENDS SHRINE VISIT

Part of China's campaign has been to highlight German contrition.

State television recently showed footage of former West German chancellor Willy Brandt falling to his knees in front of a memorial to victims of the 1943 Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, when the Germans brutally crushed a Jewish revolt.

Asked about China's comparison of Germany and Japan, a Japanese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Japan would continue to tread a peaceful path and that it was China's recent provocative actions that were raising concerns in the region.

"We have to reflect on the past but cannot live only in the past," spokesman Masaru Sato said. "Reconciliation requires not only a former perpetrator's sincerity and gesture of atonement, but also a former victim's acceptance," he said, adding Tokyo wants dialogue with Beijing.

Numerous diplomatic sources say China has been putting pressure on Western embassies in Beijing to get their governments to condemn Abe's Yasukuni shrine visit.

Abe has repeatedly said he did not visit the shrine to honor war criminals but to pay his respects to those who died for their country and to pledge Japan would never again go to war. His visit prompted a rare statement of "disappointment" from Washington on the day he went.

Last month, following a regular meeting between the Chinese and German defense ministries, Chinese state media said the German side expressed their "understanding for China's position".

"For Germany, the lessons of history have been bitter. Germany went through deep reflection and exerted much effort, thus winning the trust of the international community," Chinese newspapers cited unnamed German officials as saying.

It is all getting a bit much for Germany.

"The Germans are really uncomfortable with this kind of thing," said a third diplomatic source, referring to the defense ministry meeting. "They don't like China constantly comparing them with Japan and going on about the war."

China's ambassador to Germany, Shi Mingde, in an interview with a German newspaper last month, drew a comparison between Abe's shrine visit and the Nazis. "Imagine that the German chancellor would visit Hitler's bunker instead of the Holocaust Memorial to lay flowers. That would be unthinkable," Shi said.

Japanese spokesman Sato, noting that Yasukuni honors 2.5 million war dead from conflicts including both world wars, said it was wrong to suggest the Yasukuni visit meant Japan was unrepentant. "Comparing the two nations by simply referring to a visit to the shrine is wrong," he said.

(Additional reporting by Natalie Thomas, John Ruwitch in NANJING, China, Linda Sieg in TOKYO and Andreas Rinke in BERLIN. Editing by Dean Yates)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on February 24, 2014, 09:06:57 PM
QuoteChina wanted German officials to go to Japan and tell them how to cope with history, the source added.

:lol: I just bet they did.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on February 24, 2014, 09:10:33 PM
Which is weird, since China is pretty much the spiritual successor the Nazis.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on February 24, 2014, 09:13:54 PM
For Seedy:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/02/19/china-preps-military-for-short-sharp-war-with-japan-says-us-navy/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on February 24, 2014, 09:19:07 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 24, 2014, 09:13:54 PM
For Seedy:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/02/19/china-preps-military-for-short-sharp-war-with-japan-says-us-navy/
Lol, because planning for short wars with other great powers ALWAYS works.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 24, 2014, 09:40:05 PM
Isn't this stuff uncharacteristically aggressive for the middle kingdom?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on February 24, 2014, 09:55:17 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 24, 2014, 09:40:05 PM
Isn't this stuff uncharacteristically aggressive for the middle kingdom?
They managed to conquer and hold onto Vietnam for a thousand years, so I don't think so.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on February 24, 2014, 10:14:08 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on February 24, 2014, 09:19:07 PM
Lol, because planning for short wars with other great powers ALWAYS works.

You're not seeing it from the Chinese historical perspective.  You don't need to win a war to achieve your goals.  Sometimes winning doesn't even enter into the equation.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on February 24, 2014, 10:17:50 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 24, 2014, 09:40:05 PM
Isn't this stuff uncharacteristically aggressive for the middle kingdom?

Don't buy into that centuries-old Confucian "we're just a pacifist culture, ROR" hype, my friend.  That's exactly what they want you to think with that public relations ad campaign.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 24, 2014, 10:21:22 PM
Beijing's problem is how to placate the population's increasing anger toward Japan without doing anything drastic.  The communists need to be seen to be doing something. 

I increasingly consider Japan's revisionist antics as giving China an advantage.  It is rare for the communists to gain the moral high ground. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on February 24, 2014, 10:27:07 PM
Oh, bullshit.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 24, 2014, 10:58:24 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 24, 2014, 10:21:22 PM
Beijing's problem is how to placate the population's increasing anger toward Japan without doing anything drastic.  The communists need to be seen to be doing something. 

I increasingly consider Japan's revisionist antics as giving China an advantage.  It is rare for the communists to gain the moral high ground.

Hah!

The population's growing anger has been carefully nurtured and encouraged by Beijing.

QuoteIn 1972, when the then Japanese Prime Minister, Kakuei Tanaka, apologised for what Japan did during the war, "Chairman Mao told him not to apologise because 'you destroyed the Kuomintang, you helped us come to power'," Prof Dujarric says.

But the Party's propaganda seems to have taken a turn towards nationalism after the Tiananmen Square massacre, in which the Chinese army crushed to death students who were demanding democratic rights, on 4 June 1989.

"Before the 4 June, it portrayed the Communist Party as victorious and glorious - it defeated the nationalist Kuomintang army in the civil war. But after 4 June, the government started emphasising China as a victim," says Prof Akio Takahara, who teaches contemporary Chinese politics at Tokyo University.

The Communist Party now casts itself as the party which ended a century of humiliation at the hands of outsiders, he says.

"And the way they do it is to breed hatred against the most recent invader and aggressor."

Switching on the television in my Chinese hotel room, it was easy to find television programmes dramatising China's resistance to the Japanese invasion. As part of the country's "patriotic education" policy, more than 200 were made last year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25411700
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on February 24, 2014, 11:24:11 PM
Hey now.  Mono is just the victim of his state-run media.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on February 24, 2014, 11:25:27 PM
He's gonna be pissed when they seize his anime.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on February 24, 2014, 11:28:49 PM
I might then have to support their leaders. :weep:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 24, 2014, 11:39:35 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 24, 2014, 10:58:24 PM


Hah!

The population's growing anger has been carefully nurtured and encouraged by Beijing.

It is more complex than that, I think.  A lot of anti-Japan protests got out of control, and they need to put a stop to it.  If they nurtured the sentiment, they probably overdid it. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on February 24, 2014, 11:40:28 PM
Quote from: garbon on February 24, 2014, 11:28:49 PM
I might then have to support their leaders. :weep:
I would think that you'd be Mr. Anime, what with the hair colouring.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on February 25, 2014, 12:01:06 AM
Quote from: Neil on February 24, 2014, 11:40:28 PM
Quote from: garbon on February 24, 2014, 11:28:49 PM
I might then have to support their leaders. :weep:
I would think that you'd be Mr. Anime, what with the hair colouring.

Well that makes just another example of your poor cognition.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 25, 2014, 12:27:50 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 24, 2014, 11:39:35 PMIt is more complex than that, I think.  A lot of anti-Japan protests got out of control, and they need to put a stop to it.  If they nurtured the sentiment, they probably overdid it.

They were out of control only because different factions (i.e Zhou's clique) pushed it out of control to send a message as part of internal CPC struggles. There are plenty of reports that rioters were bussed in from the countryside and plain-clothes internal security types.

Coincidentally, Zhou was in charge of internal security which include dealing with riots and demonstrations.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 25, 2014, 01:12:50 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 25, 2014, 12:27:50 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 24, 2014, 11:39:35 PMIt is more complex than that, I think.  A lot of anti-Japan protests got out of control, and they need to put a stop to it.  If they nurtured the sentiment, they probably overdid it.

They were out of control only because different factions (i.e Zhou's clique) pushed it out of control to send a message as part of internal CPC struggles. There are plenty of reports that rioters were bussed in from the countryside and plain-clothes internal security types.

Coincidentally, Zhou was in charge of internal security which include dealing with riots and demonstrations.

Have your heard Zhou's story?  Guy's wife was killed in a traffic accident.  The perpetrator was then jailed for 4 years (light by Chinese standards).  When he got out of jail, he was promptly given a manager's job in one of the biggest state-owned oil companies.  Zhou was chairman of the company at that time.  Within month's of his wife's death, Zhou remarried.  His son refused to speak to him for years  :ph34r:

I don't doubt that the communists have something to do with the demonstrations.  But regardless, nothing would have come out of it without Japan's...active cooperation. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 25, 2014, 01:57:22 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 25, 2014, 01:12:50 AMHave your heard Zhou's story?  Guy's wife was killed in a traffic accident.  The perpetrator was then jailed for 4 years (light by Chinese standards).  When he got out of jail, he was promptly given a manager's job in one of the biggest state-owned oil companies.  Zhou was chairman of the company at that time.  Within month's of his wife's death, Zhou remarried.  His son refused to speak to him for years  :ph34r:

Yeah, Zhou seems particularly unpleasant, even by the low standards of high level CPC leaders.

QuoteI don't doubt that the communists have something to do with the demonstrations.  But regardless, nothing would have come out of it without Japan's...active cooperation.

Yeah, Abe and his crew are playing their own little game, I have no doubt about that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on February 25, 2014, 02:10:41 AM
Quote from: Neil on February 24, 2014, 11:24:11 PM
Hey now.  Mono is just the victim of his state-run media.

Another casualty of the BBC. :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 25, 2014, 02:23:24 AM
I bet Putin's hit men don't serve jail terms, light or no.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 25, 2014, 01:51:23 PM
Interesting question whether rule of law is stronger now in China than in Russia.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 25, 2014, 01:58:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 25, 2014, 01:51:23 PM
Interesting question whether rule of law is stronger now in China than in Russia.

What would you say?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 25, 2014, 02:07:47 PM
Yes but very very anecdotally.
THe criminal justice system in both seems to be FUBAR.  Domestic Chinese courts are becoming more viable for civil disputes though.
In terms of trajectory, I think that Chinese is clearly making efforts to become more law-like, whereas Russia is at best stagnant.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on February 25, 2014, 02:27:33 PM
The one thing China has going for the rule of law is the fact that it is explicitly authoritarian.  That means that its court system doesn't need to be bent nearly as much to carry out its repressive functions.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on February 28, 2014, 10:44:09 PM
QuoteChinese media outlet uses racial slur at US envoy
By Associated Press, Updated: Friday, February 28, 3:10 PM

BEIJING — A major Chinese government news service used a racist slur to describe the departing American ambassador in a mean-spirited editorial on Friday that drew widespread public condemnation in China.

The article — which called Gary Locke a "rotten banana," a guide dog for the blind, and a plague — reflected Chinese nationalists' acute loathing toward the first Chinese-American to have been Washington's top envoy to Beijing.

Locke's ethnic background particularly interested the Chinese government and people. Locke won public applause when he was seen carrying his own bag and flying economy class but he drew criticism from Beijing as his demeanor was an unwelcome contrast to Chinese officials' privileges and entitlements.

In Washington, top diplomat John Kerry paid tribute to Locke as "a champion of human dignity and a relentless advocate for America's values." Asked about the China News Service commentary, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters Friday: "We are not going to dignify the name-calling in that editorial with a response."

In his 2½ years in Beijing, Locke oversaw the defusing of two delicate diplomatic episodes when a powerful police chief fled to a U.S. consulate and later when a persecuted blind activist sought shelter in the embassy. The Chinese public also credit him with making them realize the harm of the tiny pollutant PM2.5 and severity of China's foul air by posting the embassy's hourly readings of air quality.

[READ: Locke urges China to improve human rights record]

Meanwhile, the editorials in Chinese state media turned from initial reservation to unfriendliness to the insolence of the final piece.

"I think it shows the unfriendliness and impoliteness by the Chinese government toward Gary Locke, and it is without the manners and dignity of a major power," legal scholar Hao Jinsong said. "It is unfitting of China's status as a diplomatic power. As a Chinese, I am very angry and feel ashamed of it."

The editorial "Farewell, Gary Locke" took direct aim at Locke's identity as a third-generation Chinese-American, calling him a "banana" — a racial term for Asians identifying with Western values despite their skin color.

"But when a banana sits out for long, its yellow peels will always rot, not only revealing its white core but also turning into the stomach-churning color of black," read the editorial.

The author Wang Ping — likely a pseudonym — slammed Locke's portrayal as an official judicious with public funds but criticized him for being hypocritical as he retreated into his multimillion-dollar official residence and special-made, bullet-proof luxury vehicle.

Wang belittled Locke's inability to speak his ancestral language and accused him of failing to understand China's law but fanning "evil winds" in the ethnically sensitive regions of Tibet and Xinjiang.

"Not only did he run around by himself, he even served as a guide dog for the blind when he took in the so-called blind rights lawyer Chen Guangcheng and led him running," the editorial said. Chen later was allowed to leave China and now lives in the United States.

The editorial made a malicious Chinese curse at Locke, suggesting Locke's Chinese ancestors would expel him from the family clan should they know his behaviors.

Wang also made the innuendo that Locke should be blamed for the smog. "When he arrived, so did Beijing's smog," Wang wrote. "With his departure, Beijing's sky suddenly turned blue."

"Let's bid goodbye to the smog, and let's bid goodbye to the plague. Farewell, Gary Locke," ended the article, which was clearly inspired by Mao Zedong's 1949 piece, "Farewell, Leighton Stuart," that scoffed at the last American ambassador under the collapsing Nationalist government in Nanjing.

The piece shocked members of the Chinese public, who denounced the editorial as distasteful and offensive.

"This article by China News Service is the most shameless I have ever seen — not one of them but the most shameless," the popular online commentator Yao Bo said. "Without him, we probably still would not have known what PM2.5 is, and how did he bring the smog? You have played the snake in the Farmer and the Viper."

Another commentator Fastop Liu, known for his sharp tongue, said the piece is ungraceful. "When you call him a plague, you become a national shame as you lack diplomatic etiquette, damage the manner of a great power, and lose the face of all Chinese," Liu wrote.

Locke gave his final news conference as ambassador on Thursday. His replacement, former Montana Sen. Max Baucus, was sworn in last week and is expected to arrive within weeks.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on March 01, 2014, 04:19:26 AM
Not all blacks are stomach-churning, IMHO.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 01, 2014, 08:27:10 PM
Zhou Yongkang's son and daughter-in-law have been arrested.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: LaCroix on March 01, 2014, 08:30:49 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on February 28, 2014, 10:44:09 PM
Quote"rotten banana,"

:lol: that's adorable
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 01, 2014, 11:54:27 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 25, 2014, 01:51:23 PM
Interesting question whether rule of law is stronger now in China than in Russia.

The rule of law is stronger where it protects me best. In this case, that probably means my rights are best protected by the authorities I can pay off for less.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 02, 2014, 11:01:23 AM
Quote
BloombergBigbucksweek

Chinese Employers Discriminate Against Women Planning to Have Two Children
By Christina Larson February 28, 2014

Late last year, China's central government announced reforms to the controversial one-child policy—in particular, approving a resolution that would allow couples to have two children if at least one of the parents was an only child. But the change didn't go into effect instantly; implementation is controlled locally. On Tuesday, Shanghai's government approved measures to enact the so-called two-child policy, effective March 1. Shanghai is the seventh region in China to adopt guidelines for reforming, not abolishing, the country's sprawling population-control bureaucracy.

To some extent, the number of children couples can have—and when they can have them—will vary by city. Shanghai's policies are more liberal than Beijing's, where new guidelines took hold last Friday. Shanghai parents qualified to have two children can do so regardless of their own ages or the time between births. But Beijing parents with one child must wait until the mother turns 28, or the first child turns 4, before having a second child, as independent newsmagazine Caijing reported.

China's relaxed birth-control policies also bring unexpected consequences. According to state-run Global Times, some female job applicants are already facing increased hiring discrimination as potential employers appear reluctant to pay for two maternity leaves. "An interviewer asked me if I was going to have two children, and I did not know how to answer," one young woman in Zhejiang province told the newspaper. "Having children is also making a contribution to society, but they [potential employers] treat us like enemies, which is so unfair."

A hiring manager at a Hangzhou-based advertising company told Global Times that it had explicitly decided to hire fewer female copywriters. "It's a small company, and we hire many young graduates," said the HR manager. "If some of them choose to have more than one child, the risk will be too high to handle."

Job advertisements in China frequently specify desired gender, age, and height—for occupations ranging from factory workers to flight attendants to office workers—opening the door to wide-ranging forms of discrimination.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 04, 2014, 06:58:02 PM
QuoteA Map of China, By Stereotype
Auto-complete results by the country's largest search engine shed light on how Chinese view one another.

BY WARNER BROWN MARCH 4, 2014
   
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignpolicy.com%2Ffiles%2Fimagecache%2F860x%2Fimages%2Ffinalbaidumap.jpg&hash=3f244deef2a9e4e63829e677d3be6fed7af4c9c0)

Why is the northwestern Chinese region of Xinjiang "so chaotic?" Why are many from the southern metropolis of Shanghai "unfit to lead"? And do people from central Henan Province really steal manhole covers? These are just some of the questions -- ranging from the provocative, to the offensive, to the downright ridiculous -- that Chinese people ask about themselves and each other on Baidu, the country's top search engine, which says it processes about 5 billion queries each day.

In the West, amateur sociologists use Google's voluminous search history to finish half-written questions about different regions. They then plot the stereotypes onto maps such as this one of the United States, which The Atlantic called "The U.S. According to Autocomplete." China, with its long history of regional stereotyping, is ripe for similar treatment. After all, it is home to 22 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities, as well as Taiwan, what some there would call a renegade province, pictured above because of its prevalence on Baidu. Held together by a common history and culture (and occasionally force), the regions are divided by real and perceived differences in wealth, environment, stability, ethnicity, and personality -- not to mention variations in that history and culture. Chinese society has deep schisms, one of which came into devastating relief on March 1, when a terror attack on a Kunming train station resulted in 33 deaths and 143 injuries. Chinese authorities have attributed the attacks to separatists from Xinjiang.

Studying China's collective online subconscious via auto-complete requires flexibility. Results change over time, so readers may not be able to replicate results with fealty. But even allowing for these caveats, online queries about China's regions are revealing, and they have a particularly sharp edge where they concern peripheral regions whose restive local populations sustain independence movements of varying intensity. Below is a list of common questions netizens pose about Xinjiang, a region of 22 million whose roughly 10 million ethnic Uighur Muslim minority lives alongside Han Chinese in a state of tension that frequently erupts into violence:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignpolicy.com%2Ffiles%2Ffp_uploaded_images%2F140304_BaiduXinjiang.001.png&hash=0bf43409020d08ba8111516d810865c4aca273de)

Others also wonder why Xinjiang's Turkic Uighur minorities look like foreigners, and why they hate the Han Chinese, who make up roughly 92 percent of China's total population but less than 50 percent in Xinjiang. Meanwhile, Tibet -- also home to simmering discontent with Chinese rule -- produces no auto-completed results at all. The same is true for its neighbor Qinghai, which sits on the Tibetan plateau and has a large ethnic Tibetan population. (Deleting the leading "why" from queries about Tibet produces many auto-completed results, mostly about travel tips and historical television dramas set in the region.)
Netizens associate several northern regions with varying degrees of violence. Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang -- collectively called the Northeast -- are famous for their Siberian winters as well as their beautiful women, but the apparently pugnacious locals are also known for starting fights. Inner Mongolia calls to mind the brutal December 2013 hazing of newly recruited firefighters, and the tiny region of Ningxia's sole result concerns the grisly murder of a family of seven following a marital spat in October 2013.   

One of the starkest patterns involves queries into the omnipresent divide between China's rich coastal provinces and poor inland ones. Netizens appear envious of wealthy Jiangsu and Zhejiang, asking why they are so developed and rich. China's wealthiest province, Guangdong, is curiously considered "chaotic" in addition to "developed," while the moderately wealthy Fujian is seen as a "poor" coastal underperformer.

One might expect Beijing and Shanghai to impress for their comparative wealth and modernity, but the general gloom of netizen queries hints at disappointed expectations. Those researching Shanghai seem particularly interested in the city's lack of public heating, a service provided throughout northern China but denied elsewhere. Meanwhile, searches for "smog" crowd the list of results for Beijing, not surprising given the city's frequent bouts with choking pollution.

Seven inland regions are associated with terms like "poor," "backward," and "undeveloped," with none coming off worse than Henan. Perhaps it's because of that province's roughly 100 million residents supposed penchant for stealing manhole covers, however inaccurate or distorted that picture may be:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignpolicy.com%2Ffiles%2Ffp_uploaded_images%2F140304_0_HenanBaidu.png&hash=19f7fbfd180a0bf45b786d45c03733e8aa809764)

A case can be made that the dismal repute of Henan and other poor inland regions derives from modern China's society of mass migration, which puts people of vastly unequal regions side-by-side in big cities and creates conditions for new stereotypes to form and old ones to spread. Many migrants are second-class citizens in all but name, scorned by local residents, consigned to working menial jobs, and often associated with rising crime and other social ills. The dislike can be mutual -- several queries about Shanghai ask why the "exclusive" natives look down on outsiders. One common question asks simply why Shanghai people hate Anhui people, many of whom come to seek their fortunes in the coastal metropolis.

Not all queries are so severe. Many revolve around physical appearance; netizens ask why Shandong people are so tall and why Sichuanese are short and have good skin. The top result for Hubei concerns "nine-headed birds" -- not a reference to local fauna, but an ancient mythical creature that has since become a sometimes-derogatory nickname for allegedly crafty locals. Users also ask why the people of Shanxi love vinegar, and why those in Sichuan and Hunan eat chili peppers. The adventurous, simian-craving dining habits of Guangdong attract particular attention. Most regions also feature searches related to local history: All of Shaanxi's results revolve around nicknames from its time as the cradle of Chinese civilization.

Baidu's name, which means "hundreds of times," was inspired by an 800-year-old Song Dynasty poem about the persistent search for an ideal beauty in the midst of chaos. Those Chinese using the search engine are surely looking for reliable information in a chaotic Chinese Internet. But for outsiders looking to understand how China views itself, Baidu's auto-completed questions are at least as illuminating as its answers.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/04/a_map_of_china_by_stereotype
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 04, 2014, 10:27:54 PM
Wait so Mono is surrounded by Monkey Eaters?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 05, 2014, 04:31:38 AM
:lol:
Trying that for the UK I get lots of "Sunderland is in which country" and the like. oh deer...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on March 05, 2014, 04:35:56 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2014, 04:31:38 AM
:lol:
Trying that for the UK I get lots of "Sunderland is in which country" and the like. oh deer...

Why is Barcelona important/famous/so good?  :showoff:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 05, 2014, 05:00:16 AM
Why is Atlanta busiest airport?
Why is Jacksonville called Freakville?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on March 05, 2014, 05:00:37 AM
1. why is vienna called the city of music
2. why is vienna called the city of dreams
3. why is vienna famous
4. why is vienna  the most livable city
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Savonarola on March 05, 2014, 04:47:34 PM
My current town is too small for the Google to care, but...

Why is Detroit Bankrupt?
Why is Detroit so Dangerous?
Why is Detroit Broke?
Why is Detroit called Motor City?


and my home town:

Why is Grand Rapids called Grand Rapids?
Why is Grand Rapids called Gun Ru?
Why is Grand Rapids imporant?
Why is Grand Rapids famous?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on March 05, 2014, 05:42:57 PM
why is dayton ohio so dangerous?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 05, 2014, 06:51:44 PM
Why is Vancouver so expensive
Why is Vancouver so warm
Why is Vancouver so boring  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 05, 2014, 07:18:16 PM
It's boring because it's filled with Canadians, duh.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 05, 2014, 11:14:32 PM
Why is Austin weird
Why is Austin the capital of Texas
Why is Austin so liberal
Why is Austin so great


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on March 05, 2014, 11:18:48 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 05, 2014, 06:51:44 PM
Why is Vancouver so expensive
Why is Vancouver so warm
Why is Vancouver so boring  :lol:

Similar for nyc but switch in cold for warm. also dirty and popular.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 08, 2014, 04:19:50 PM
QuoteAs budgets soar, China still fears its military isn't growing fast enough
By William Wan, Published: March 7
washingtonpost.com

BEIJING — When American analysts talk of China's military, they often describe it in terms of the looming threat of the future, a rapidly modernizing and expanding force that could one day rival, or even worse, overtake that of the United States.

Such anxieties were fanned further this week with China's announcement of yet another year of double-digit growth in military spending. The news prompted public alarm from Manila and Tokyo to the Pentagon.

But when China looks at its own army, it is often with fears that it is not big enough and is lacking in competence, modernization and the sheer hardened will of a well-trained force.

Chinese soldiers are wimps, bemoaned a prominent Communist Party publication, describing them as "male soldiers with female characteristics."

"Dangerously corrupt," wrote a famous Chinese colonel in a recent book, describing brothers-in-arms who had been fattened on bribes and grown complacent.

The polar extremes are a reflection of the complex, paranoid and intertwined state these days of the U.S.-China relationship as frenemies.

China's Foreign Ministry scoffed Wednesday at the alarm among the United States and its Pacific allies at China's increased military budget.

"The moderate growth . . . is totally reasonable and justifiable, and there is no need to feel surprised," said Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman.

He added with unusually colorful language and sarcasm: "I want to reiterate that the Chinese People's Liberation Army is not a children's army equipped with red-tasseled spears. Some outside China hope to see China stay as a Boy Scout who never grows up."

His reference to child armies and red-tasseled spears drew chuckles online in China, where such images remain as relics from decades gone by.

To Westerners, what's especially notable is that China's rapid expansion has occurred right as the United States and its NATO allies have grappled with cuts.

China's budget announcement Wednesday came just one day after the Pentagon announced plans to cut the U.S. Army to its smallest size in decades.

Chinese military spending now ranks second in the world. But analysts say its official budget — $131.56 billion for 2014 — doesn't include billions spent in secret.

This year's 12.2 percent increase in China is "just what we can see," Adm. Samuel Locklear, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, said in testimony to Congress this week. "There's much more that, I'm told, lie below that."

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that China's real sum for last year could be as high as $240 billion, double the official number.

And IHS Jane's, a defense analysis company, projects that by 2015, China will be outspending Britain, France and Germany combined.

China's army is growing not only in an abstract sense but also in a literal sense, according to an odd but fascinating military report last month. The People's Liberation Army's official newspaper said the average Chinese soldier has grown two centimeters (about 0.8 inches) taller and five centimeters (about two inches) thicker in the waist in the past two decades.

The bigger soldiers have brought with them problems as well as praise, the military newspaper said. Tanks three decades old are now suddenly too snug, and rifle butts are too short, causing accuracy problems.

But for all the talk these days of China's bigger, beefier and expanding force, Chinese analysts clamor that the military budget remains dwarfed by that of the United States. U.S. military spending for fiscal 2014, for example, stood at $526.8 billion, four times that of China.

"China is not as strong as the West describes," said Song Xiaojun, editor of an online Chinese military magazine, who likened the nation's army to a sickly child still on the mend. "I actually don't think the current increase is enough; it should be accelerated."

Analysts here often point out that China's army troops haven't seen combat since 1979.

In a scathing piece two years ago, the Communist Party's influential Study Times newspaper said the Chinese army lacked a manly, martial spirit. It blamed China's one-child policy for raising a generation of entitled, soft little emperors unready for war.

An even bigger problem is corruption, according to Col. Liu Mingfu, a former professor at China's National Defense University. In a 2012 book, he called corruption "the No. 1 danger and No. 1 opponent for the People's Liberation Army," and compared China's current weaknesses to its corruption-riddled forces in 1894 that were soundly defeated by a modernized Japanese military.

Some U.S. experts also subscribe to this alternative narrative of China's army as a bumbling, still-nascent force. Ian Easton, a researcher at the Arlington-based Project 2049 Institute, recently catalogued a long list of embarrassing, Keystone Kops behaviors, such as missile-launch readiness drills that he said include movie and karaoke breaks.

"China's military is in many ways much weaker than it looks," Easton wrote. But what should be frightening to Western powers, he argues, is how China is looking to make up for that weakness with increasing investments in asymmetrical, nontraditional tools of war such as space weapons, ballistic and cruise missiles and cyberwarriors.

The message Chinese officials have tried to convey this week is that those who underestimate China's military as well as those who wish it wouldn't expand quite so fast are equally mistaken.

At the Foreign Ministry briefing — flogging his metaphor of child armies and red-tasseled spears — spokesman Qin said, "Even if China were a Boy Scout, he will grow taller and his feet will grow larger year by year. You cannot simply have him wearing the same small clothes and shoes, can you?"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 08, 2014, 06:17:05 PM
Seriously, you guys should worry about the Russians  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 08, 2014, 09:54:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 08, 2014, 06:17:05 PM
Seriously, you guys should worry about the Russians  :P

Save it, Shark Fin Soup.  We know who the real threat is, and it's not Russians with their filthy ethnicky hang-ups and it's not Suq Madiq training with Al Qaeda on monkey bars somewhere in Dirtbagistan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on March 08, 2014, 11:54:04 PM
Why is Edmonton YEG
Why is Edmonton the capital
Why is Edmonton called Edmonton
Why is Edmonton so cold
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: PRC on March 09, 2014, 02:04:57 AM
Quote from: Barrister on March 08, 2014, 11:54:04 PM
Why is Edmonton YEG
Why is Edmonton the capital
Why is Edmonton called Edmonton
Why is Edmonton so cold

Why is Calgary yyc
Why is Calgary so cold
Why is Calgary so windy
Why is Calgary located where it is
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 09, 2014, 02:32:45 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 08, 2014, 09:54:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 08, 2014, 06:17:05 PM
Seriously, you guys should worry about the Russians  :P

Save it, Shark Fin Soup.  We know who the real threat is, and it's not Russians with their filthy ethnicky hang-ups and it's not Suq Madiq training with Al Qaeda on monkey bars somewhere in Dirtbagistan.


/shrug.  Feel feel to think what you want to think.  But I just think it is pretty horrible to just march into another country and claim parts of it as your own.  That to me looks suspiciously close to what another guy did in the 30s. If you don't think that's a threat, then don't say you haven't been warned  :menace:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 09, 2014, 03:17:09 AM
Those parts were their own 25 years ago though. I don't think Putin is actually looking for a fight with other great powers.

China is the greater threat in the long run. But there's not much that can be done.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 09, 2014, 03:30:45 AM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on March 09, 2014, 03:17:09 AM
Those parts were their own 25 years ago though.

Danzig, 1939  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 09, 2014, 03:32:56 AM
Germany had never controlled Austria prior to the Anschluss.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 09, 2014, 08:57:43 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 09, 2014, 02:32:45 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 08, 2014, 09:54:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 08, 2014, 06:17:05 PM
Seriously, you guys should worry about the Russians  :P

Save it, Shark Fin Soup.  We know who the real threat is, and it's not Russians with their filthy ethnicky hang-ups and it's not Suq Madiq training with Al Qaeda on monkey bars somewhere in Dirtbagistan.


/shrug.  Feel feel to think what you want to think.  But I just think it is pretty horrible to just march into another country and claim parts of it as your own.  That to me looks suspiciously close to what another guy did in the 30s. If you don't think that's a threat, then don't say you haven't been warned  :menace:

China did that to an entire country....
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 09, 2014, 10:30:46 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 09, 2014, 02:32:45 AM
/shrug.  Feel feel to think what you want to think.  But I just think it is pretty horrible to just march into another country and claim parts of it as your own.  That to me looks suspiciously close to what another guy did in the 30s. If you don't think that's a threat, then don't say you haven't been warned  :menace:

I'm sure the residents of Taipei feel relieved now.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 10, 2014, 04:03:31 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on March 09, 2014, 03:32:56 AM
Germany had never controlled Austria prior to the Anschluss.

Well if you consider Nazi Germany the Third Reich then it was.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 10, 2014, 04:11:43 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 10, 2014, 04:03:31 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on March 09, 2014, 03:32:56 AM
Germany had never controlled Austria prior to the Anschluss.

Well if you consider Nazi Germany the Third Reich then it was.

Austria had controlled Germany, not the other way around ;)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 10, 2014, 04:15:24 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on March 10, 2014, 04:11:43 PM
Austria had controlled Germany, not the other way around ;)

And how was that different from the Third Reich?  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 24, 2014, 08:19:30 PM
QuotePLAN commissions first Type 052D DDG, puts second on sea trials
Ridzwan Rahmat, Singapore - IHS Jane's Navy International

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.janes.com%2Fimages%2Fassets%2F842%2F35842%2FPLAN_ship_-_main.jpg&hash=198a05c93b0253beeeb9891d36c4b7f1028d7c7c)

China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) commissioned the first of its Luyang III (Type 052D)-class guided missile destroyers (DDG) at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai on 21 March. The vessel was handed over in a ceremony presided over by PLAN commander Admiral Wu Shengli, who described the vessel as an asset that will "greatly enhance the navy's fighting capabilities".

Kunming , with pennant number 172, appears to be a development of the Luyang II (Type 052C)-class destroyer but feature several improvements in terms of design, weapons and sensors.

The 7,500-tonne warship has a range of 4,500 n miles and can attain a top speed of 30 kt. It can accommodate a crew of 280 and carry up to two Harbin Zhi-9A Haitun or Kamov Ka-28 Helix helicopters on its flight deck.

The Luyang III class incorporates an enhanced version of the indigenously developed Type 346 Dragon Eye active phased-array radar on its forward superstructure. The vessels have provisions for one bow-mounted sonar and towed array sensors each although further details on these are not yet available.

The ships are armed with six Yu-7 324 mm torpedoes that can carry a 45 kg warhead over a range of 14 km. Aircraft persecution is achieved with 64 HHQ-9B vertical launching system (VLS) cells divided between the forward and aft sections of each boat. These are designed to fire 90 kg warheads up to a distance of 100 km. The Luyang III class's firepower is augmented with one H/PJ38 130 mm main gun and one Type 730 30 mm gun on each vessel.

Shortly after the commissioning of Kunming , Chinese state media reported on 23 March that its sister ship Changsha , with pennant number 173, took to the waters of Zhoushan in eastern China to commence sea trials. Both vessels are expected to be based in the South Sea Fleet. The PLAN is expected to operate a fleet of 10 Luyang III-class DDGs.

I love how the Chinese have starting using much more menacing nicknames for their hardware, like "Dragon Eye".  Then again, it sings better than "Counterfeit Aegis Ripoff Orchid Blossom."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on March 24, 2014, 08:29:53 PM
Death Blossom

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fthelostclassics.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F08%2Foherlihy-last-starfighter-sm.jpg&hash=1d2cbffc73f6233c1d9945ac78426cc918cb9d7f)

obscure?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 24, 2014, 08:37:41 PM
Great movie.  Stupid boardgame.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 24, 2014, 08:52:33 PM
Go to sleep, Louis, or I'm telling Mom about your Playboys.  :mad:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on March 24, 2014, 08:58:10 PM
 :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on March 24, 2014, 09:06:29 PM
To be fair, their Aegis radar is probably just as good as the USN version, what with the parts being made in China and them having access to the plans courtesy of their spies students.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 24, 2014, 09:15:42 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 24, 2014, 09:06:29 PM
To be fair, their Aegis radar is probably just as good as the USN version, what with the parts being made in China and them having access to the plans courtesy of their spies students.

Probably doesn't work past all the lead paint it's covered with.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on March 25, 2014, 04:17:37 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 24, 2014, 08:37:41 PM
Great movie.  Stupid boardgame.

There's a Last Starfighter boardgame?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 25, 2014, 06:02:47 AM
Quote from: celedhring on March 25, 2014, 04:17:37 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 24, 2014, 08:37:41 PM
Great movie.  Stupid boardgame.

There's a Last Starfighter boardgame?

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcf.geekdo-images.com%2Fimages%2Fpic109904.jpg&hash=7a2b08c5e65841a3f9065d273c70accc1a9f725d)

From FASA, the folks who brought you the Star Trek RPG.

Of course, this was 1984ish, the heyday of Make A Game Out Of Everything.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on March 25, 2014, 06:13:02 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 25, 2014, 06:02:47 AM
Of course, this was 1984ish, the heyday of Make A Game Out Of Everything.

Indeed, my copy of the Ghostbusters RPG bears witness to this.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on March 25, 2014, 07:43:24 AM
Between Shadowrun, Battletech and Earthdawn, FASA more than earned my respect.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 25, 2014, 04:20:33 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 25, 2014, 07:43:24 AM
Between Shadowrun, Battletech and Earthdawn, FASA more than earned my respect.

The current owners of the FASA trademark have (and had) basically nothing to do with those three Franchises, IIRC.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 25, 2014, 04:23:39 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fideologyofmadness.spookyouthouse.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F05%2Fstrpg1.jpg&hash=bececbe449792115350b08c7ad4b4d3c774256ac)

Still one of the awesomest rules systems ever.  And it was: canon-qualified.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on March 25, 2014, 04:29:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 25, 2014, 04:20:33 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 25, 2014, 07:43:24 AM
Between Shadowrun, Battletech and Earthdawn, FASA more than earned my respect.

The current owners of the FASA trademark have (and had) basically nothing to do with those three Franchises, IIRC.

As I recall, they were all very much FASA products until they went belly up.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Malthus on March 25, 2014, 04:38:52 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 25, 2014, 04:23:39 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fideologyofmadness.spookyouthouse.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F05%2Fstrpg1.jpg&hash=bececbe449792115350b08c7ad4b4d3c774256ac)

Still one of the awesomest rules systems ever.  And it was: canon-qualified.

My only question is: why does Kirk appear to have shit on his face?  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on March 25, 2014, 05:25:35 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 25, 2014, 04:20:33 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 25, 2014, 07:43:24 AM
Between Shadowrun, Battletech and Earthdawn, FASA more than earned my respect.
The current owners of the FASA trademark have (and had) basically nothing to do with those three Franchises, IIRC.
FASA still owns Earthdawn (the least of the three).  But yeah, they sold the other two to those goofballs at Wizkids.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on March 25, 2014, 05:37:07 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 25, 2014, 04:23:39 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fideologyofmadness.spookyouthouse.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F05%2Fstrpg1.jpg&hash=bececbe449792115350b08c7ad4b4d3c774256ac)

Still one of the awesomest rules systems ever.  And it was: canon-qualified.

I raise you.....

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.calormen.com%2Fstar_trek%2FFAQs%2FCovers%2FFASA-StarshipTacticalCombatSimulator.jpg&hash=8904a2cbec70c532d08baaf360efcea363c7c699)

All the Star Trek geekiness without a 500 page rule book.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on March 25, 2014, 06:38:55 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 25, 2014, 05:25:35 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 25, 2014, 04:20:33 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 25, 2014, 07:43:24 AM
Between Shadowrun, Battletech and Earthdawn, FASA more than earned my respect.
The current owners of the FASA trademark have (and had) basically nothing to do with those three Franchises, IIRC.
FASA still owns Earthdawn (the least of the three).  But yeah, they sold the other two to those goofballs at Wizkids.

Kinda awkward, as Earthdawn and Shadowrun are intimately linked.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 25, 2014, 08:10:25 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 25, 2014, 05:37:07 PM
I raise you.....

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.calormen.com%2Fstar_trek%2FFAQs%2FCovers%2FFASA-StarshipTacticalCombatSimulator.jpg&hash=8904a2cbec70c532d08baaf360efcea363c7c699)

All the Star Trek geekiness without a 500 page rule book.

I had the

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.waynesbooks.com%2Fimages%2Fgraphics%2Fstiiistarshipcombat.jpg&hash=240ec02700175bb3957515704469ba0ca28cd59f)

version, which I believe was the first one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on March 25, 2014, 10:48:30 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 25, 2014, 06:38:55 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 25, 2014, 05:25:35 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 25, 2014, 04:20:33 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 25, 2014, 07:43:24 AM
Between Shadowrun, Battletech and Earthdawn, FASA more than earned my respect.
The current owners of the FASA trademark have (and had) basically nothing to do with those three Franchises, IIRC.
FASA still owns Earthdawn (the least of the three).  But yeah, they sold the other two to those goofballs at Wizkids.
Kinda awkward, as Earthdawn and Shadowrun are intimately linked.
Kind of.  I mean it's not like you can't possibly write a Shadowrun adventure without copious amounts of Earthdawn lore.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 07, 2014, 04:55:25 PM
What in the wide wide world of sports

QuoteU.S. Tries Candor to Assure China on Cyberattacks
By DAVID E. SANGER
APRIL 6, 2014


WASHINGTON — In the months before Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's arrival in Beijing on Monday, the Obama administration quietly held an extraordinary briefing for the Chinese military leadership on a subject officials have rarely discussed in public: the Pentagon's emerging doctrine for defending against cyberattacks against the United States — and for using its cybertechnology against adversaries, including the Chinese.

The idea was to allay Chinese concerns about plans to more than triple the number of American cyberwarriors to 6,000 by the end of 2016, a force that will include new teams the Pentagon plans to deploy to each military combatant command around the world. But the hope was to prompt the Chinese to give Washington a similar briefing about the many People's Liberation Army units that are believed to be behind the escalating attacks on American corporations and government networks.

So far, the Chinese have not reciprocated —
a point Mr. Hagel plans to make in a speech at the P.L.A.'s National Defense University on Tuesday.

The effort, senior Pentagon officials say, is to head off what Mr. Hagel and his advisers fear is the growing possibility of a fast-escalating series of cyberattacks and counterattacks between the United States and China. This is a concern especially at a time of mounting tensions over China's expanding claims of control over what it argues are exclusive territories in the East and South China Seas, and over a new air defense zone. In interviews, American officials say their latest initiatives were inspired by Cold-War-era exchanges held with the Soviets so that each side understood the "red lines" for employing nuclear weapons against each other.

"Think of this in terms of the Cuban missile crisis," one senior Pentagon official said. While the United States "suffers attacks every day," he said, "the last thing we would want to do is misinterpret an attack and escalate to a real conflict."

Mr. Hagel's concern is spurred by the fact that in the year since President Obama explicitly brought up the barrage of Chinese-origin attacks on the United States with his newly installed counterpart, President Xi Jinping, the pace of those attacks has increased. Most continue to be aimed at stealing technology and other intellectual property from Silicon Valley, military contractors and energy firms. Many are believed to be linked to cyberwarfare units of the People's Liberation Army acting on behalf of state-owned, or state-affiliated, Chinese companies.

"To the Chinese, this isn't first and foremost a military weapon, it's an economic weapon," said Laura Galante, a former Defense Intelligence Agency cyberspecialist. She now works for the Mandiant division of FireEye, one of the largest of the many cybersecurity firms seeking to neutralize attacks on corporations from China and other countries, as well as criminal groups and hackers.

Administration officials acknowledge that Mr. Hagel, on his first trip to China as defense secretary, has a very difficult case to make, far more complicated than last year. The Pentagon plans to spend $26 billion on cybertechnology over the next five years — much of it for defense of the military's networks, but billions for developing offensive weapons — and that sum does not include budgets for the intelligence community's efforts in more covert operations. It is one of the few areas, along with drones and Special Operations forces, that are getting more investment at a time of overall Pentagon cutbacks.

Moreover, disclosures about America's own focus on cyberweaponry — including American-led attacks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and National Security Agency documents revealed in the trove taken by Edward J. Snowden, the former agency contractor — detail the degree to which the United States has engaged in what the intelligence world calls "cyberexploitation" of targets in China.

The revelation by The New York Times and the German magazine Der Spiegel that the United States has pierced the networks of Huawei, China's giant networking and telecommunications company, prompted Mr. Xi to raise the issue with Mr. Obama at a meeting in The Hague two weeks ago. The attack on Huawei, called Operation Shotgiant, was intended to determine whether the company was a front for the army, but also focused on learning how to get inside Huawei's networks to conduct surveillance or cyberattacks against countries — Iran, Cuba, Pakistan and beyond — that buy the Chinese-made equipment. Other cyberattacks revealed in the documents focused on piercing China's major telecommunications companies and wireless networks, particularly those used by the Chinese leadership and its most sensitive military units.

Mr. Obama told the Chinese president that the United States, unlike China, did not use its technological powers to steal corporate data and give it to its own companies; its spying, one of Mr. Obama's aides later told reporters, is solely for "national security priorities." But to the Chinese, for whom national and economic security are one, that argument carries little weight.

"We clearly don't occupy the moral high ground that we once thought we did," said one senior administration official.


For that reason, the disclosures changed the discussion between the top officials at the Pentagon and the State Department and their Chinese counterparts in quiet meetings intended to work out what one official called "an understanding of rules of the road, norms of behavior," for China and the United States.

The decision to conduct a briefing for the Chinese on American military doctrine for the use of cyberweapons was a controversial one, not least because the Obama administration has almost never done that for the American public, though elements of the doctrine can be pieced together from statements by senior officials and a dense "Presidential Decision Directive" on such activities signed by Mr. Obama in 2012. (The White House released declassified excerpts at the time; Mr. Snowden released the whole document.)

Mr. Hagel alluded to the doctrine a week ago when he went to the retirement ceremony for Gen. Keith B. Alexander, the first military officer to jointly command the N.S.A. and the military's Cyber Command. General Alexander was succeeded last week by Adm. Michael S. Rogers, who as the head of the Navy's Fleet Cyber Command was a central player in developing a corps of experts who could conduct cyberwarfare alongside more traditional Navy forces.

"The United States does not seek to militarize cyberspace," Mr. Hagel said at the ceremony, held at the N.S.A.'s headquarters at Fort Meade, Md. He went on to describe a doctrine of "minimal use" of cyberweaponry against other states. The statement was meant to assure other nations — not just China — that the United States would not routinely use its growing arsenal against them.

In Beijing, the defense secretary "is going to stress to the Chinese that we in the military are going to be as transparent as possible," said Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, "and we want the same openness and transparency and restraint from them."

Experts here and in China point out that a lot was left out of Mr. Hagel's statement last week. The United States separates offensive operations of the kind that disabled roughly 1,000 centrifuges in Iran's nuclear program, America's best-known (and still unacknowledged) cyberattack against another state, from the far more common computer-enabled espionage of the kind carried out against the Chinese to gather information about a potential adversary.

"It's clear that cyberspace is already militarized, because we've seen countries using cyber for military purposes for 15 years," said James Lewis, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The Chinese have had offensive capabilities for years as well," he said, along with "more than a dozen countries that admit they are developing them."


QuoteBut the hope was to prompt the Chinese to give Washington a similar briefing about the many People's Liberation Army units that are believed to be behind the escalating attacks on American corporations and government networks.

So far, the Chinese have not reciprocated —

Well, no shit, Sherlock.  Jesus H chocolate-covered Christ, it's bad fucking news when I'm more dialed in on the Chinese than our fucking leadership.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on April 07, 2014, 08:08:42 PM
THANKS OBAMA
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on April 07, 2014, 08:18:11 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 25, 2014, 04:20:33 PM
Quote from: Neil on March 25, 2014, 07:43:24 AM
Between Shadowrun, Battletech and Earthdawn, FASA more than earned my respect.

The current owners of the FASA trademark have (and had) basically nothing to do with those three Franchises, IIRC.

I didn't even know the company was still around.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 08, 2014, 07:43:57 PM
Chinese adherence to "noninterference" is a sham! I'm shocked, shocked! :o

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Apr-09/252721-japan-is-looking-at-the-crimea-annexation-with-trepidation.ashx#ixzz2yLSObDj5

Quote

China's response to the crisis in Ukraine was particularly revealing. For three decades, China has proclaimed "noninterference" in the internal affairs of sovereign states as the most important rule governing international relations. But when Putin invaded Ukraine, China showed the hollowness of its adherence to this principle. Instead of condemning Russia for invading and annexing Crimea, it abstained at the United Nations Security Council and has offered more criticism of Ukraine's new popular government than it has of Putin's thuggish behavior.

Every country in Asia is bound to draw only one conclusion from China's tacit approval of Putin's Crimean landgrab: China, too, thinks that might makes right, and if it believes that it can get away with invading disputed territories, whether in the South China Sea or in the Indian Himalayas, it will do so. As a result, effective deterrence will require Asian countries to strengthen their defenses and unite to demand adherence to international law, so that China understands that any Putin-style land grabs will cost its economy dearly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 14, 2014, 07:44:09 PM
Is the bubble finally bursting?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/04/13/china-property-collapse-has-begun/

QuoteChina Property Collapse Has Begun

Nothing is going right for Hangzhou at this moment.  Walmart will be closing its Zhaohui store in that city on April 23 as a part of its overall plan to dump marginal locations—about 9% of the total—in China.


Thanks to the world's largest retailer, another large block of space in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province, will go on the market at a time when there is generally too much supply.  The problem is especially pronounced in the city's premium office market.  Hangzhou's Grade A office buildings at the end of 2013 had, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, an average occupancy rate of 30%.

The real weakness, however, is Hangzhou's residential sector.  The cause is simple: massive overbuilding.  Sara Hsu of the State University of New York at New Paltz writes that Hangzhou faces "burgeoning swaths of empty apartment units."

Hangzhou's market has not yet collapsed.  There are still secondary sales, for instance.  Singapore's Straits Times reports Allen Zhao, a businessman, has been looking to sell his two-bedroom flat in Hangzhou for 2 million yuan.  His neighbor just let go a similar unit for 1.7 million.  If Zhao also sells for that amount, he will make a profit, but he will be disappointed.  "That is not much more than the price I paid in 2012," Zhao told the paper.  "Now I'm regretting not selling earlier—more bad news about the property market keeps coming in every day."

New homes also face price pressure.  Developers in Hangzhou are now offering deep discounts, and investors and owners are noticing.  And not just in that city.  "It seems that the 30% price cut in Hangzhou really changed the way Chinese people think about real estate," writes Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, "and I doubt there is any turning back from here."

Not every developer is offering such deep discounts, but as Stevenson-Yang tells us the city has become the symbol of a market in distress.  China Central Television on the first of this month devoted a segment to the problems of the "unstoppable price decrease" in Hangzhou property in its Economic 30 Minutes show, and discounts in that city, the Wall Street Journal notes, could be "a signal of broader market weakness ahead."

The real estate market in Hangzhou looks like it has just passed an inflection point.  It is not so much that fundamentals have deteriorated—they have been weak for some time—as that people's mentality has changed. 

As state-run China Central Television explained, the problems in Hangzhou, once the world's largest city, began on February 18.  Then, the North Sea Park development began offering deep discounts.  Rumors that the developer had cash problems started a chain reaction across the city.  It did not matter that North Sea Park issued denials.  Other developers began offering either deep discounts or large incentives, but the tactics did not work.  By then, there were almost no buyers.

Now, the problem of no buyers is spreading across the country.  Sara Hsu notes China's residential markets are becoming inelastic.  "Once consumers stop buying," she writes, "deep discounts are ineffective in drawing them back."  People aren't buying because they believe prices will decline further.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new home prices across the country are still going up, but percentage increases have now declined for three consecutive months, signaling a peaking.

Official statistics do not seem consistent with the general trend of reports, but in any event severe problems are evidently ahead.  The secondary property market has tumbled, with sales falling by more than half in Q1 2014 from the same quarter in 2013.  Speculators have either left the domestic market or have sold off holdings.  Rich Chinese, now interested in foreign holdings, are also shunning their home market.  Foreigners, who own only an infinitesimal portion of China's property but who are a bellwether nonetheless, are investing at the slowest pace in at least a decade.  Middle class Chinese are also largely out of the market.

And that's not all.  China property trust sales plunged 49.1% in Q1 2014 from the previous quarter, from 99.7 billion yuan in Q4 2013 to 50.7 billion yuan.  The precipitous fall was due in part to the failure last month of developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate, which had 3.5 billion yuan of indebtedness.

Moreover, just about everyone expects more developers to close their doors.  For one thing, the central bank is not injecting liquidity as fast as it once did.  And interest rates are increasing, the reason why a Finance Ministry one-year bond auction failed on Friday.  Many private developers had gambled that property prices would rise faster than interest rates, but that now looks like a losing bet.  Zhejiang Xingrun, for one, became insolvent after it had borrowed at ultra high rates.

China is at the point where problems are feeding on themselves.  Pessimism about property, which accounts for about 15% of China's gross domestic product, is beginning to affect the broader economy.  Declining property values look scary, despite cheery statements from government officials who assure us the property bubble is "not big" or analysts who say that the problems are not "systemic."  But the Chinese don't look like they are buying either of those views.  "If this continues, it will have immense impact on the whole Chinese economy," says an unidentified Hangzhou real estate salesman on Economic 30 Minutes.  "Without question, everyone thinks there is a bubble."

The People's Republic in the "reform era" has not suffered a nationwide property crash.  Analysts say the problems in Hangzhou are "regional," but now fundamentals and market sentiment either are or will be pushing markets down across the People's Republic.

"The banking system and the shadow banking system are becoming concerned about exposure," says David Cui of Bank of America BAC +1.46%.  "Once people refuse to provide credit to developers, their balance sheets will be under pressure, forcing them to cut prices.  Once enough of them cut prices, fewer people would buy because most people buy property only when they think the price is going up.  If this persists, it will turn into a vicious loop."

Premier Li Keqiang has a few tools at his disposal, but they look insufficient to stop a general collapse of property prices across the country.  The problems, deferred from late 2008 with massive state spending, have simply become too large.  And we must remember that he works inside a complex, collective political system that is generally unable to meet challenges swiftly.

But that does not matter.  There is little any leader can do.  Collapses occur when people lose confidence.  That is now happening in China.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 15, 2014, 01:42:27 AM
DOOM! China's economy will implode and take the rest of us down with it!

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/04/15/too-much-of-a-good-thing-a-china-property-glut-faq/
QuoteToo Much of a Good Thing: A China Property Glut FAQ

China's smaller cities are now the scene of a housing glut, which could undermine China's growth. What are the possible consequences? How are developers reacting? Is the government doing anything about it?

Below WSJ reporters Esther Fung and Bob Davis answer those and other questions. 

Why are the recent price cuts so bad? Isn't this just the market at work—less demand, ergo lower prices?

The same could have been said for the U.S. in 2007. Falling prices in Las Vegas, Bakersfield, Miami were just the market at work.  The problem is that if prices fall too far, they don't invite more people to invest in property. Just the opposite. Would-be buyers keep their wallets closed, fearing that the value of a home will go down in value.

That's particularly a problem in China, where people have thought for 20 years that real estate prices can only go up in value. If that psychology switches, it's a huge problem.

There was concern that the property bubble had burst in 2011. What's different now? 

In 2011, the big worry was  escalating prices in China's major cities putting apartments out of the reach of all but the rich. The central government implemented property curbs, such as limits on multiple home purchases, to rein in speculation and frothy prices. After two tough years for developers, prices started heading up again smartly last year.

What makes the current problem different is that a) the problem is more widespread, hitting lots of small and medium-sized cities, b) the issue is a glut rather than rising prices, and c) China's finances are tied ever more tightly to real estate.

Since 2008, debt in China has grown at a pace similar to the U.S, Europe, Japan and South Korea before they fell into deep recessions. One big reason for the run-up in debt is lending to real estate developers. If developers can't afford to make payments on their loans because they can't sell enough apartments, China has a big problem.

Speaking of which, how are developers paying their bills?

Many construction companies are getting paid in apartments as developers become more and more cash-strapped, according to Zhou Liping, a property consultant at Jiangsu Lianmeng Property Consultancy. "It's quite common," he said, adding that some of these construction companies then use the apartments as collateral when they take on bank loans.

Are there signs of construction workers losing their jobs?

Certainly it's a danger. Unfortunately, unemployment data is unreliable in China and it isn't counted by occupation. So far, there is no sign of widespread job loss. There are still  more jobs than workers seeking jobs, largely as a result of demographic changes that are reducing the size of the Chinese workforce.

What are some signs that the growing glut is having economic ripples?

Copper prices have been falling since 2010, with analysts blaming slack demand in China as one reason. Copper is used in roofs, gutters and building expansion joints. Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, has forecast slower growth in Chinese steel demand this year due to more muted construction demand growth.

Retail sales growth has also slowed recently, due in part to falling growth in sales of appliances and furniture, both linked tightly to apartment purchases.

What is the government doing about it?

The central government has indicated that it would allow local governments to adopt their own market regulations rather than implement a one-size-fits-all policy.

In some areas, local governments are trying help out. In Fenghua, government officials are trying to stave off a default by a local developer. In Changzhou, the government has been trying to keep discounts to a minimum to prop up the housing market.  In Yingkou, the government has reduced fees and taxes for new purchases and made it easy for new buyers to get the residence permits necessary to obtain social welfare benefits, including public education for their children. So far, these measures have had only a limited impact on boosting sales.

Does this mean developers will finally start to cut back on their headlong, hell-for-leather building?

Some of China's largest developers are now trying to focus again on China's biggest cities, where demand is stronger. But why do developers keep building in problem cities despite obvious lack of demand? Why did U.S. developers do the same thing? Developers are optimists and salesmen by nature. Each thinks that its project will thrive even as others don't.

According to Nomura, profits for a group of 142 listed property developers in China rose 581% between 2006 and 2012 and never fell during any of those years. Other non-financial companies saw profits rise 64% during that same period and profits sometimes fell year-to-year for that group.

"China's real estate developers are behaving like internet start-ups," says Mark Williams, a China economist at the Capital Economics in London. "They're focusing on grabbing market share in a growing market, but the smaller and medium-sized cities they are in aren't growing rapidly."

Follow Bob Davis on Tw
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 15, 2014, 04:01:34 AM
Well, you know.

Only so many ghost cities to go around before we have to start exporting them.  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 15, 2014, 04:11:59 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 14, 2014, 07:44:09 PM
Is the bubble finally bursting?



Stumbled on this one myself today. Interesting. Hopefully the west is on steady enough footing by now that it won't take us down too,.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Norgy on April 15, 2014, 04:17:54 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 15, 2014, 04:11:59 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 14, 2014, 07:44:09 PM
Is the bubble finally bursting?



Stumbled on this one myself today. Interesting. Hopefully the west is on steady enough footing by now that it won't take us down too,.

Yeah, that sounds likely. Because our own property markets haven't been a mess for six years or so.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 15, 2014, 04:44:00 AM
Quote from: Norgy on April 15, 2014, 04:17:54 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 15, 2014, 04:11:59 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 14, 2014, 07:44:09 PM
Is the bubble finally bursting?



Stumbled on this one myself today. Interesting. Hopefully the west is on steady enough footing by now that it won't take us down too,.

Yeah, that sounds likely. Because our own property markets haven't been a mess for six years or so.

Things are better than six years ago at least. Had China gone down in the last few years then the world would have been pretty screwed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 19, 2014, 05:46:49 PM
Because the movie was awesome, that's why.

http://theweek.com/article/index/260001/how-captain-america-won-over-china

QuoteHow Captain America won over China
A patriotic U.S. film is raking in the renminbi. Why?
By Warner Brown, Foreign Policy | April 17, 2014   

SHANGHAI — Last week, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel's trip to China was underscoring bilateral tensions between the two powers, the Chinese masses were busy embracing another U.S. visitor. The Marvel superhero sequel Captain America: The Winter Soldier— which (spoiler alert) sees World War II hero Steve Rogers adjusting to life in the 21st century after a 70-year-long sleep, all while battling nefarious elements including spies and Nazis within his employer, a government agency called S.H.I.E.L.D. — has cleaned up at the Chinese box office, selling over 5.6 million tickets and raking in $39.2 million in its opening weekend. That's less than the $95 million the film earned in its debut weekend in the United States, but it's not shabby for China, besting even the opening weekend for 2013's Iron Man 3, which went on to become China's second-highest earning film in 2013. Chinese viewers have embraced the film on Douban.com, China's leading social site for film buffs. Over 20,000 Douban users have collectively given the film an average score of 8.2, edging out even acclaimed Hong Kong director Wong Kar Wai's 2000 tour de force In The Mood for Love.

Why has an avowedly all-American hero proved so popular here? Launching the film on a three-day holiday weekend shortly after its stars toured Beijing certainly didn't hurt. But Winter Soldier also resonates because it keeps the hero's fundamental patriotism intact while modernizing his conflict for a complicated new era, pitting him against enemies burrowed deep within the government he serves. "[The new villain] is the very country he loves and protects," writes one Douban reviewer. "To love one's country isn't the same as loving one's government: This is the main draw of Captain America."

These and other Douban authors implicitly acknowledge that a film tackling such themes — even hidden behind the guise of an imagined superhero — could never be made under the watchful eye of China's image-conscious government and its army of censors. One online review, titled "Why is there no Captain China?", tackles the question explicitly. The post argues that Chinese censors would never allow scenes of iconic buildings like Tiananmen Gate or state-run China Central Television's iconic headquarters, both in Beijing, being destroyed: How could such a thing be possible, after all, under the ruling Communist Party's protection? (A superhero would be unnecessary because China's unrivalled People's Armed Police would catch the villain and send him off to re-education through labor.) The best a Captain China could hope for, the user argues, would be a job as a Beijing policeman. Not that China would ever have true villains anyway; would-be filmmakers, the user concludes, shouldn't even think about depicting enemies within the ranks of the government.

Taken together, the mass of Douban reviews also suggest that Winter Soldier continues a tradition in which Hollywood's success in China inspires navel-gazing about the country's domestic film industry and broader culture. In a review titled "Why do we need Captain America?", one user bemoans the lack of masculine heroes in current Chinese films, and laments that earlier folk heroes like kung-fu legends Huang Feihong and Ip Man are no longer suited to the silver screen. These protagonists are "too nationalist," she writes, fending off as they do a parade of foreign devils and other villains from the bad old days of China's "century of humiliation" at the hands of other powers like Japan and Britain. It's a theme for which many other members of Douban's relatively liberal user base have evinced more than a little fatigue.

It would be folly, of course, to chalk Winter Soldier's success in China up to its politically resonant plot alone. Some of the factors at play behind Captain America's successful Chinese conquest are rather simple. One review entitled "The male lead is handsome — that's the only reason" is representative of a sizable star-gazing chunk of the short reviews, while the most popular full-length review is a playful bromantic interpretation of the relationship between two male leads. The appeal of big explosions and eye-catching stars, it seems, transcends borders.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on April 19, 2014, 05:56:20 PM
What a load of Cao Cao.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on April 19, 2014, 05:59:14 PM
I saw Ip Man 2 recently and it was a shameless (and unfun) copy of Rocky IV, with an officer of the British colonial army in place of Ivan Drago.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.easternkicks.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fimages%2Ffeatures%2Fdarren-shahlavi.jpg&hash=79b8106a5c6efeb7e5d523c1da772be8085ec92c)

Most recent Chinese films I have seen are such on the nose nationalistic pamflets, that I'm not surprised people are flocking to see actual *fun* stuff like Cap or Pacific Rim (which made an absolute killing in China).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 19, 2014, 06:34:59 PM
QuoteOne online review, titled "Why is there no Captain China?"

Probably because he failed the exams.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 20, 2014, 09:23:15 AM
Sounds like a postapocalyptic wasteland. China's Polluted Soil (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304626304579507040557046288?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304626304579507040557046288.html)

QuoteChina Details Vast Extent of Soil Pollution
About a Fifth of Nation's Arable Land Is Contaminated With Heavy Metals

Updated April 17, 2014 9:08 p.m. ET

BEIJING—The extent of China's soil pollution, long guarded as a state secret, was laid out in an official report that confirmed deep-seated fears about contaminated farmland and the viability of the country's food supply.

Nearly one-fifth of the country's arable land is polluted, officials said in the report, shedding unexpected light on the scale of the problem—a legacy of China's three decades of breakneck economic growth and industrial expansion.

"The national soil situation overall does not offer cause for optimism," said the report. "In some areas, soil pollution is relatively severe. The condition of arable land is troubling, with the problem of pollution from industry and mining particularly worrisome."

While China's problems with air pollution are well-documented, environmentalists have warned about the effects of less-visible contamination of the country's land.

"Air pollution is definitely more visible and present, but soil is the last environmental media where pollutants end up," said Wu Yixiu, head of Greenpeace's East Asia toxins campaign. Heavy metal particles in the air and water seep into the land, then "get into the food and affect everybody," she added.

The report, based on a seven-year survey covering 2.4 million square miles, found that about 16% of the country's soil and 19% of its arable land was polluted to one degree or another. The vast majority of the pollution came from inorganic sources such as heavy metals, it said. China's total land area is 3.7 million square miles.

The most common inorganic pollutants found in China's soil were the heavy metals cadmium, nickel and arsenic, according to Thursday's report. Cadmium and arsenic, both known to cause chronic health problems, are byproducts of mining.

Nearly 3% of arable land in China was found to be either moderately or seriously polluted, the report said, without defining what those levels of contamination mean. Pollution was particularly severe in eastern China's Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta in the south and old industrial zones in the northeast, it said.

Pollution of farmland is of particular concern in China because of how little of it has. According to the most recent national land survey, China had 334 million acres of arable land at the end of 2012, roughly 37 million acres above the government's "red line" for the amount of farmland necessary to feed the country's population.

Already, some 8.24 million acres of arable land has become unfit for farming, China's Ministry of Land and Resources disclosed in December. Environmentalists say the majority of the remaining land is of poor or moderate quality, having been stripped of its productivity by decades of heavy fertilizer and pesticide use.

So much polluted soil means China will likely have to begin importing more food. "China will need to ease pressure on its natural resource base and import more of its food over the long-term," said Fred Gale, an economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service. "Agriculture is impacted by industrial pollution but also creates a lot of pollution itself," he said, citing waste and ecological damage caused by China's growing taste for meat.

In April 2013, the discovery of unusually high quantities of cadmium in batches of rice grown in Hunan—the country's top rice-producing region, as well as a top-five producer of nonferrous metals like copper and lead—set off worries about farmland and sent prices for Hunan rice tumbling by as much as 14%.

Consuming cadmium in excess of the widely accepted standard of 0.4 milligrams per kilogram of rice over a long period can cause crippling pain the bones and liver and kidney damage. Several samples of the Hunan rice tested in 2013 showed levels of cadmium above that standard.

The cadmium disclosure came shortly after the Ministry of Environmental Protection rejected a request filed by a Beijing-based lawyer to release the results of the soil pollution survey. The ministry said at the time the data couldn't be released because it was a state secret.

Authorities have started to give more weight to the risks of environmental degradation.

In December, the Communist Party announced it would scrap its previous gross domestic product-driven performance evaluation system and replace it with one that would judge officials according to a wider variety of criteria, including environmental protection. Three years after an online campaign calling for more accurate information about air quality, most major cities in China now publish hourly data on air pollution levels. In July, the environmental ministry issued regulations requiring all Chinese provinces to establish an online platform for reporting pollution produced by major companies.

"This is a primary step for citizens' right to know about the environmental protection issue," said Dong Zhengwei, the lawyer who pushed for release of the results. He added, "this information is late for the public, but it's still better than nothing."

Chen Nengchang, a soil remediation expert with the Guangdong Institute of Environmental and Soil Sciences, said the report "clears away the image of soil pollution as a state secret and provides more information." But he added that the release is "a gesture" that did little to provide solutions.

Soil remediation—a way of purifying and revitalizing land—is a technically demanding process that can take decades. Heavy metals react differently depending on conditions, making sources of pollution difficult to pinpoint, and efforts to leech them out of the soil can require years of letting fields lay fallow.

China committed to spending 30 billion yuan ($4.8 billion) on the clean up and prevention of soil pollution in its most recent five-year plan, though experts say they expect it would likely cost much more than that.

In Beijing, residents greeted the report with a dose of skepticism and resignation.

"I'm concerned, but I can't fix it. The whole country is the same. You have to eat or you'll starve," said Xiang Ju, a 29-year-old fruit vendor. He added that he thought the problem was probably more serious than the report indicated. "There must be places that haven't been investigated or reported."

Nan Li, a 26-year-old who works in information technology, said he was surprised by the figure but that it ultimately didn't matter whether the government released. "I mean, even if you want to avoid it, there's no way you'll always be able to," he said.

—Joy Ma, Fanfan Wang and Yang Jie contributed to this article.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 19, 2014, 07:53:10 PM
So this is a little bizarre:
http://slide.news.sina.com.cn/s/slide_1_46203_60589.html#p=21
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sinaimg.cn%2Fdy%2Fslidenews%2F1_img%2F2014_21%2F46203_420023_455304.jpg&hash=47cfd1abdb10ee87d7de8ac4559f02acedd4715a)
Apparently this is high school students in Sichuan re-enacting the crucifixion of Jesus for their athletics day :mellow: :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 19, 2014, 08:05:42 PM
At least Jesus had his ear buds on Golgotha.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Capetan Mihali on May 19, 2014, 10:28:46 PM
They all seem to be having good fun. :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 20, 2014, 01:28:37 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 20, 2014, 09:23:15 AM
Sounds like a postapocalyptic wasteland. China's Polluted Soil[/, though experts say they expect it would likely cost much more than that.

In Beijing, residents greeted the report with a dose of skepticism and resignation.

"I'm concerned, but I can't fix it. The whole country is the same. You have to eat or you'll starve," said Xiang Ju, a 29-year-old fruit vendor. He added that he thought the problem was probably more serious than the report indicated. "There must be places that haven't been investigated or reported."

Nan Li, a 26-year-old who works in information technology, said he was surprised by the figure but that it ultimately didn't matter whether the government released. "I mean, even if you want to avoid it, there's no way you'll always be able to," he said.

—Joy Ma, Fanfan Wang and Yang Jie contributed to this article. (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304626304579507040557046288?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304626304579507040557046288.html)
[/quote]

I do worry about the Chinese environment.
I suppose back in te 70s the same sort of thing applied to japan and it has recovered...ish. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 20, 2014, 05:02:57 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 19, 2014, 07:53:10 PM
So this is a little bizarre:
http://slide.news.sina.com.cn/s/slide_1_46203_60589.html#p=21
Apparently this is high school students in Sichuan re-enacting the crucifixion of Jesus for their athletics day :mellow: :lol:

:lol:

Though... to be honest... it isn't that much more bizarre than the various cultural representations my peers and I engaged in during school international theme days et. al. when I was growing up.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 20, 2014, 07:36:53 AM
Yeah, you gotta love how elementary school presentations have the same production value as "It's a Small World After All";  Dutch?  Make a papier-mâché windmill.  Spanish?  Lulz, red bullfight bed sheet.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 20, 2014, 09:09:39 AM
Quote from: Jacob on May 20, 2014, 05:02:57 AM
:lol:

Though... to be honest... it isn't that much more bizarre than the various cultural representations my peers and I engaged in during school international theme days et. al. when I was growing up.

Why are female Caesars following him holding books?  Are those little red bibles?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 25, 2014, 09:58:55 PM
Let's color the map a lovely shade of red

http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-map-gives-greater-play-south-china-sea-080455527.html
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic5.businessinsider.com%2Fimage%2F53aa95306bb3f7412391ee34-1200-1651%2Fchina-map-6.jpg&hash=327629f127ba14571ae02ce259a68ddd1277ecee)
QuoteNew Chinese map gives greater play to South China Sea claims

BEIJING (Reuters) - China has unveiled a new official map of the country giving greater play to its claims on the South China Sea, state media said on Wednesday, making the disputed waters and its numerous islets and reefs more clearly seem like national territory.

Previous maps published by the government already include China's claims to most of the South China Sea, but in a little box normally in a bottom corner to enable the rest of the country to fit on the map.

The new, longer map dispenses with the box, and shows continental China along with its self-declared sea boundary in the South China Sea - stretching right down to the coasts of Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines - on one complete map.

"The islands of the South China Sea on the traditional map of China are shown in a cut-away box, and readers cannot fully, directly know the full map of China," the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily said on its website.

Old maps make the South China Sea's islands appear more like an appendage rather than an integral part of the country, which the new map makes "obvious with a single glance", the report added.

"This vertical map of China has important meaning for promoting citizens' better understanding of ... maintaining (our) maritime rights and territorial integrity," an unnamed official with the map's publishers told the newspaper.

China's foreign ministry said people should not read too much into the issuing of the new map.

"The goal is to serve the Chinese public. As for the intentions, I think there is no need to make too much of any association here," ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a daily news briefing.

"China's position on the South China Sea issue is consistent and extremely clear. Our stance has not changed."

Beijing claims about 90 percent of the South China Sea, but parts of the potentially energy-rich waters are also subject to claims by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

Tensions have risen sharply in the region in recent months, especially between China and both Vietnam and the Philippines.

China's positioning of an oil rig in waters claimed by both Beijing and Hanoi last month has lead to rammings at sea between ships from both countries and anti-Chinese violence in Vietnam.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Sui-Lee Wee; Editing by Ron Popeski)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 25, 2014, 11:05:23 PM
I thought the update to this thread was to be about the sperm extractor :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on June 26, 2014, 03:41:21 AM
What's their explanation for extending the sea borders so far out from their claimed territories that they can practically wade ashore in Malaysia and the Philippines?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on June 26, 2014, 04:54:50 AM
Quote from: Syt on June 26, 2014, 03:41:21 AM
What's their explanation for extending the sea borders so far out from their claimed territories that they can practically wade ashore in Malaysia and the Philippines?

It's called South CHINA sea?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 26, 2014, 09:41:08 AM
Quote from: Syt on June 26, 2014, 03:41:21 AM
What's their explanation for extending the sea borders so far out from their claimed territories that they can practically wade ashore in Malaysia and the Philippines?

Chinese oceanic geography is more art than science.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 26, 2014, 10:02:41 AM
With the Senkakus they've got a half decent geographic argument (the Japanese arguments are better, but the Chinese aren't without validity).
In the South China sea though their entire argument is based on a bunch of Chinese guys having visited there 500 years ago.

Too many people just don't understand the way China historically viewed the world. To
the China of old the world was subservient to China by default. Thus arguments that old Chinese dynasties 'ruled' areas must be taken with a huge pinch of salt.
For some reason though you don't see anyone pointing this out internationally.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on June 26, 2014, 12:02:40 PM
Quote from: Syt on June 26, 2014, 03:41:21 AM
What's their explanation for extending the sea borders so far out from their claimed territories that they can practically wade ashore in Malaysia and the Philippines?

Worked for the Argies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on June 27, 2014, 08:03:21 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/26/china-sends-dissidents-on-paid-holidays

QuoteChina sends dissidents on free holidays

Activists tell of 'being travelled' – sent on lavish trips, chaperoned by police – to keep them out of the government's way



As top Communist leaders gathered in Beijing the veteran Chinese political activist He Depu was obliged to leave town – on an all-expenses-paid holiday to the tropical island of Hainan, complete with police escorts.

It is an unusual method of muzzling dissent, but He is one of dozens of campaigners who rights groups say have been forced to take vacations – sometimes featuring luxurious hotels beside sun-drenched beaches, trips to tourist sites and lavish dinners – courtesy of the authorities.

It happens so often that dissidents have coined a phrase for it: "being travelled".

He, 57, had not been charged with any crime but officers took him 1,400 miles (2,300km) to Hainan for 10 days to ensure he was not in the capital for this year's annual meeting of China's legislature, he said.

Two policemen accompanied him, his wife and another dissident for dips in the ocean and visits to a large Buddha statue, he said.

"We had a pretty good time because a decent amount of money was spent on the trip – the local government paid for everything."

Altogether eight activists have told Agence France-Presse of being forced on holiday in recent years.

"Every time there is an important national event I'm taken on vacation," said Xu Xiangyu, who has long campaigned against officials she accuses of demolishing her house without any compensation.

In 2011 police and court staff announced they would be taking Xu, with her family, on a trip to Hainan – a place of internal exile for criminals, disgraced officials and renegade poets as early as the Tang dynasty of 618-907.

She has holiday snaps showing her posing at a seaside park, and with her chaperones around a table heaped with empty plates.

"The hotel was luxurious and we ate excellent food – they paid for everything," she said of her guides. "We would spend up to 1,000 yuan ($160) on a single meal."

Over the last decade domestic security spending has soared, regularly exceeding Beijing's declared military outlays, as China's ruling Communist party seeks to maintain its tight grip on power. Those who speak out against government abuses are routinely detained.

The regime has built a vast "stability maintenance" apparatus and President Xi Jinping has sought to further stifle dissent since his 2012 ascension to the top of the ruling party.

State-enforced travel spiked this year ahead of the 25th anniversary on 4 June of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. According to US-based advocacy group Human Rights in China 15 people were taken on forced vacations beforehand.

"I've just returned from Beijing after being travelled," Yan Zhengxue, a painter and government critic, told AFP.

Police "went with me every day and paid for everything" on a trip to Ningxia in the north-west that took in the towering dunes of the Tengger desert.

"If you refuse to go travelling there will be consequences," he said. "You have to go. Even though you are at tourist sites, you have been forced to go, so you're not in the mood to enjoy it."

Government personnel relish the trips, some regular forced travellers suggest. "We ate the best food and drank the best alcohol. The security officials enjoyed it too. Not just any security official can go on this kind of trip, they need to be above a certain rank," said the environmental campaigner Wu Lihong, adding he was taken to the ancient city of Xian for two weeks in March.

"Quite a few" officials from Beijing's secretive ministry of state security accompanied him, he said.

They stayed at Xian's "best hotel", he said, and saw the Unesco-listed Terracotta Warriors, as well as the "Wild Goose Pagoda", a Tang dynasty tower that hosts night-time laser shows.

"They are usually stuck inside using their computers and reading the papers, but by accompanying me they have a chance to travel and eat well," he added.

When Chinese citizens travel to Beijing seeking redress from higher authorities for local government abuses they risk detention in makeshift "black jails", where they are sometimes beaten before being sent home. More persistent ones, though, are targeted for holidays.

"If you're really grassroots you'll be held in a black jail. Forced travel is for fairly well-known activists," said Maya Wang, of US-based campaign group Human Rights Watch.

"It's a form of illegal detention," she added. "This kind of forced travel depriving people of their freedom is unlawful."

China's foreign ministry often says that detained activists are treated according to the law. The public security ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Wang Rongwen, a longtime petitioner from Sichuan in the southwest, had her third trip ahead of the Tiananmen anniversary, with six officials taking her to the majestic peaks and gurgling waterfalls of the Tiantai mountains.

During the Communist party's 2012 congress she was brought to a hotel that boasts a chandeliered restaurant, marble-floored lobby and king-sized beds.

But she did not enjoy the experience, she said. "Being travelled is no better than being in a moving jail.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on June 27, 2014, 08:39:34 AM
Where's my luxury vacation, Obama? :angry:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on June 27, 2014, 09:39:47 AM
Quote from: garbon on June 27, 2014, 08:39:34 AM
Where's my luxury vacation, Obama? :angry:

You get to visit the Florida Panhandle. The sweaty redneck panhandle.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on June 27, 2014, 09:41:40 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 27, 2014, 09:39:47 AM
Quote from: garbon on June 27, 2014, 08:39:34 AM
Where's my luxury vacation, Obama? :angry:

You get to visit the Florida Panhandle. The sweaty redneck panhandle.

You could have stopped at just that. After ally, I said luxury vacation. :yuk:

That said - closeted Repubs? Let's go! :w00t:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 27, 2014, 09:46:46 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 27, 2014, 09:39:47 AM
You get to visit the Florida Panhandle. The sweaty redneck panhandle.

Like the eastern part of the state is any better.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on June 27, 2014, 10:49:14 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 27, 2014, 09:39:47 AM
Quote from: garbon on June 27, 2014, 08:39:34 AM
Where's my luxury vacation, Obama? :angry:

You get to visit the Florida Panhandle. The sweaty redneck panhandle.

That's where one of my sisters lives. :)

She's proudly identifying with redneckicity. :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 27, 2014, 08:37:05 PM
Maybe they'll respond by naming the street outside our embassy after Snowden? :hmm:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/06/26/washington-is-renaming-the-street-outside-chinas-embassy-after-jailed-dissident-liu-xiaobo-and-china-is-furious/

QuoteWashington is renaming the street outside China's embassy after jailed dissident Liu Xiaobo — and China is furious

SHANGHAI — China has reacted with fury to plans to rename the street outside its Washington embassy in honour of its most famous political dissident.

Earlier this week, a U.S. congressional committee voted to change the Chinese embassy's address to "Liu Xiaobo Plaza" — a tribute to the literary critic and dissident who has been in prison since 2009 for organizing a "subversive" pro-democracy petition called Charter 08.

The name change was "a way to highlight Liu's unjust imprisonment," said a statement posted on the website of Frank Wolf, the Republican congressman behind the initiative.

The move enraged China. "We believe that the U.S. people will not like to see a U.S. street be named after a criminal," a spokesman for the Chinese embassy was quoted as saying by the Washington Post.

Friends, relations and supporters of Mr. Liu celebrated the initiative, which was timed to coincide with this month's 25th anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, in which he played a central role. Xia Yeliang, a Chinese academic, said Liu Xia, the dissident's wife who herself has been under house arrest since 2010, had shown enthusiasm after he told her of the vote by telephone.

"She immediately laughed, a very loud laugh, a joyful laugh," Prof. Xia said.

He added that he had asked her to pass the message on to Liu Xiabo, but that the telephone line had gone dead. Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in absentia in 2010, and Prof Xia said he saw it as a tribute to all of those who protested and lost their lives in 1989.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 27, 2014, 10:19:10 PM
Hurray for international trolling.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on June 28, 2014, 02:27:54 AM
QuoteLiu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize

So he hasn't actually done anything good yet? Thanks Obama.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 23, 2014, 12:50:39 AM
 :hmm:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d72ec42a-2f87-11e4-83e4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BoXMoz00

Quote'Brushing' casts doubt on Alibaba figures as $20bn IPO looms


After four years managing a private delivery company in the Chinese city of Ningbo, Chen Qian has acquired a new skill: he can tell which packets are fake even before he picks them up. Some are hollow boxes, some rattle with a piece of candy or a keychain. Recently, he says, merchants sending fake deliveries have started putting toilet paper rolls to give some heft.

Mr Chen says these account for about a quarter of the 4,000 packages his company handles every day. The phenomenon is widespread throughout China; a consequence of the country's booming e-commerce industry and, specifically, a practice known as shuaxiaoliang, or literally – "sales brushing". Online sellers are recruiting their friends, relatives and even professional fraudsters to make fake orders because shipping more goods would give them better placement – and therefore a better chance to garner more real sales – on websites such as Alibaba-owned Taobao.

In some category of goods, fake sales can account for between a 10th to a quarter of all online sales, according to a series of interviews with ecommerce vendors, logistics companies, and people who help fake internet traffic for e-commerce sellers.

This high proportion calls into question the key operational metrics published by Alibaba ahead of its expected New York listing this month, when it is likely to raise around $20bn and eclipse Facebook and Google to become the biggest ever internet IPO.

Since Alibaba's Tmall and Taobao sites account for 80 per cent of the overall online retail volume in China, "brushing" also calls into doubt China's official e-commerce statistics.

Alibaba said in a filing to the Securities and Exchanges Commission this week that it handled $296bn worth of goods, consisting of 14.5bn orders, in the year ended June 30. Ebay handled $81bn worth of goods over the same period.

Alibaba noted in the risk factors section of its prospectus that sellers on its site may "engage in fictitious or phantom transactions with themselves or collaborators in order to artificially inflate their own ratings on our marketplaces, reputation and search results rankings".
The company declined to comment further due to a pre-IPO silent period, but Alibaba has been cracking down on brushing for the last three years. This has had some effect, according to sellers and others active on Taoboao, although the practice still flourishes as sellers stay ahead of Alibaba's audit methodology.

Brushing highlights the headaches of policing third parties on e-commerce sites and applies not just to Alibaba but to all sites that have open supplier platforms, such as Ebay and Amazon. However, Alibaba is most affected due to its sheer size in the Chinese market, and because fierce competition and rising advertising rates charged by Alibaba mean that the vast majority of sellers on Taobao are now lossmaking. Ebay and Amazon declined to comment.

Zhang Yi, chief executive of iMedia Research, a mobile internet consulting group, said a private study by his group reckons that a very large number of shop owners on Alibaba's flagship ecommerce site Taobao, which accounts for two-thirds of Alibaba's total sales volume, "brushed" in the first half of 2014. "The great majority are brushing or have 'brushed' at some point" he said.

"We've only started brushing recently," said one Taobao shop owner in Hangzhou which sells hats and traditional silk scarves, who asked not to be identified. "There is no other choice for us. A lot of the other shops have been doing this for years, and we realised that no matter how well we did in sales, we could not compete with those who brushed. The way I see it, it would be best for all of us if nobody brushed."
BRUSHING: HOW IT WORKS

Brushing has generated a whole series of side industries in China, including businesses that thrive by artificially boosting online traffic to Taobao and Tmall shops.

"But the competition is so fierce, there is really no other way, all our competitors are doing it. If your sales aren't high enough, you will get low placement and no sales"

There is some disagreement over the extent to which brushing affects Alibaba's overall sales numbers. One person familiar with the company said Alibaba was aware of the problem but did not consider it material enough to impact overall sales.

However Anne Stevenson-Yang, head of J Capital Research, the Beijing based economic research group, drew attention to the 63 per cent jump in Alibaba's gross merchandise value between the end of 2012 and end 2013, from $157bn to $248bn.

In that same period, she says, there was only a 6 per cent revenue growth for all retailers listed on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong stock exchanges, not corrected for mergers and non-core investments.

"You can't say this is channel migration, because a lot of the consumer/retail companies have very robust online sales, and those sales are growing more slowly than offline sales" she says. "Manufacturers of products sold online are seeing slow or negative growth. So where are all these online sales coming from?"

Over the past three years, Alibaba has improved its auditing procedures, which use algorithms to determine suspicious activity. Merchants caught brushing could be downgraded or even kicked off the website.

Mr Chen, of the delivery company, told the FT via telephone that the number of empty packages he handles has been reduced from half to one-quarter of the total in that time. However, the practice still flourishes as sellers stay ahead of Alibaba's audit methodology. In chat rooms and blog forums, vendors discuss how not to get caught: do not have too high a conversion ratio of sales to internet traffic clicks, and do not "brush" from the same IP address too often.

Li Siyuan, who sells cut flowers online on Taobao from his Beijing flat, said he personally does not brush sales, however he knows many merchants who do, but the practice is declining. "The golden age of brushing was 2009 to 2011" he said. Nowadays he estimates that the total amount of fake sales in the online flower industry is 10 per cent or less. "Today the best way to get high sales is to offer a great product," he adds.

But Mr Chen, of the delivery company, says it will be difficult to completely eradicate the practice. "Even though our employees can pretty much tell which ones are empty, the line is still rather blurry," he says. "Our clients can insist that they just intend to send a pack tissue paper; or even harder still, if they send out a receipt in an envelope."

It appears that brushing violates no laws and, arguably, benefits everyone – store owners get better listings, logistics and delivery companies get more sales, and Alibaba gets a boost in traffic.

"I don't think I want to criticise the practice too much because we get so many sales," says Mr Chen.

Brushing: how it works

'Brushing' essentially consists of creating fake orders – the merchant sends out an empty box or delivery envelope accordingly, but refunds the money paid by the 'purchaser'.

The practice of shipping an empty box or entering a fake order code is necessary because Alibaba requires a unique delivery code to be entered with each order.

In practice, Chen Xujie, a man from Wenzhou who fakes internet traffic for ecommerce sellers on his website 668shua.com, says half of the fakery is done by shipping empty parcels, and half is done via a grey market in active order codes sold by logistics companies to vendors via specialised websites.

Brushing has generated a whole series of side industries in China. Mr Chen, for example, runs a thriving business in artificially boosting online traffic to Taobao and Tmall shops. Shop owners who brush but do not also fake their traffic numbers can get caught because they would appear to be too successful, which casts suspicion and can cause them to be automatically downgraded by Taobao.

Some sellers also use virtual private networks on computers to fake different IP addresses for order locations, he said.
Going by the online chat handle of "Stupid Jerk", Mr Chen uses internet bots and software to fake traffic. "Nine out of every 10 sites on Taobao do it" he said via instant messenger.

He claims to make Rmb3,000 per month generating fake traffic for Taobao sellers, and says he got into the practice after owning a shop on Taobao selling Korean cosmetics. He left Taobao because he said "there was no hope".

"I spent too much time brushing my sales and it still wasn't enough".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 23, 2014, 04:39:51 PM
Anyone got any book recommendations on the current leadership generation of the CCP? Or roughly post-Deng CCP leadership?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on September 24, 2014, 07:53:25 PM
An article for the CdM demographic

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-chinese-military-is-a-paper-dragon-8a12e8ef7edc
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on October 13, 2014, 08:16:44 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/us-eyes-sale-nys-waldorf-hotel-chinese-firm-163911969--politics.html

Where a lot of U.N. diplomats stay.  What could go wrong.  :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 13, 2014, 08:16:44 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/us-eyes-sale-nys-waldorf-hotel-chinese-firm-163911969--politics.html

Where a lot of U.N. diplomats stay.  What could go wrong.  :)

Presumably those diplomats can stay in other hotels?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 13, 2014, 09:08:20 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
Presumably those diplomats can stay in other hotels?

Would you?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 13, 2014, 09:20:49 PM
Biscuit said the rooms in the Waldorf aren't that great.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 13, 2014, 09:37:27 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 13, 2014, 09:08:20 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
Presumably those diplomats can stay in other hotels?

Would you?

Only if they have 5 stars. #Monoisrich
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 09:47:31 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 13, 2014, 09:37:27 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 13, 2014, 09:08:20 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
Presumably those diplomats can stay in other hotels?

Would you?

Only if they have 5 stars. #Monoisrich

My experience is that stars mean nothing.  5 stars just mean they have (probably) fulfilled a checklist of requirements, like having a pool, each room has its own toilet, etc.  Doesn't say if the room is nice or big or modern.  Doesn't say if the food or staff are good.  A lot of 5 star places are crappy, and a lot places with fewer stars are much better. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 13, 2014, 09:50:32 PM
My experience with cheap roadside motels is that each room always has its own bathroom.  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 09:54:31 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 13, 2014, 09:50:32 PM
My experience with cheap roadside motels is that each room always has its own bathroom.  :P

North American hotels are usually ok on this.  European ones are not.  Independently operated B&Bs are not.   
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 13, 2014, 10:00:18 PM
WTF Europe?  :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 10:06:10 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 13, 2014, 10:00:18 PM
WTF Europe?  :(

Yeah a lot of rooms in Europe don't have their own toilets.  Some of the ones that have them are added as an afterthought, so they tend to be small and smelly (ventilation isn't good enough as the toilet is just too small). 

Japanese hotel rooms tend to be equipped with their own toilets, but they are prefabricated ones.  The entire toilet is a plastic box made in a factory, then installed in the hotels.  I am ok with those, but the wife isn't.  The only real drawbacks are that they are small and slippery (because everything has plastic surfaces). 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 13, 2014, 10:56:30 PM
The next time your wife is sliding around on a Japanese prefab bathroom floor, videotape it and post it here.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 13, 2014, 11:12:49 PM
Or if she takes a dump in the bidet.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on October 13, 2014, 11:13:19 PM
Pass on both requests.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 14, 2014, 12:19:56 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 10:06:10 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 13, 2014, 10:00:18 PM
WTF Europe?  :(

Yeah a lot of rooms in Europe don't have their own toilets.  Some of the ones that have them are added as an afterthought, so they tend to be small and smelly (ventilation isn't good enough as the toilet is just too small). 

What kind of 1 star hellholes are you staying at? :huh:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on October 14, 2014, 01:29:05 AM
Quote from: Barrister on October 13, 2014, 11:13:19 PM
Pass on both requests.

Wow.  I didn't think you would really pass those requests on to your wife.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 14, 2014, 12:22:16 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 09:47:31 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on October 13, 2014, 09:37:27 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 13, 2014, 09:08:20 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 13, 2014, 09:03:02 PM
Presumably those diplomats can stay in other hotels?

Would you?

Only if they have 5 stars. #Monoisrich

My experience is that stars mean nothing.  5 stars just mean they have (probably) fulfilled a checklist of requirements, like having a pool, each room has its own toilet, etc.  Doesn't say if the room is nice or big or modern.  Doesn't say if the food or staff are good.  A lot of 5 star places are crappy, and a lot places with fewer stars are much better. 

Yeah, the stars rules are pretty misleading. Pretty much just a ticklist of does the hotel have conference facilities, rooms have minibars, etc...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on October 16, 2014, 07:23:32 PM
Meanwhile, outside of HK....

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-land-dispute-china-20141015-story.html

Quote8 killed, 18 injured in China land dispute
By TIMES STAFF
OCTOBER 15, 2014, 4:08 AM | REPORTING FROM BEIJING

During World War II, Gao Shangpei fought Japanese soldiers invading his hometown.
This week, the 85-year-old said he found himself taking up arms again as men wielding
steel pipes and knives invaded his village over a land dispute, sparking clashes that left
eight people dead and 18 others injured.
The incident in southwest Yunnan province appears to be one of the bloodiest confrontations in
recent years between property developers and local villagers.
------------
FOR THE RECORD
9:57 a.m.: An earlier version of this post indicated that the confrontation occurred on Monday. It
occurred on Tuesday. It also stated that the local government issued a statement on the incident on
Tuesday. The statement was issued on Wednesday.
------------
In a statement Wednesday, the local government said eight people were killed in Fuyou village
when staff from a local project developer clashed with villagers. But locals said "thugs" hired by the
developer stormed the village and tried to beat up residents who had vowed to protect their land
till death.

"Around 2:30 p.m. [Tuesday], a group of over 1,000 thugs hired by the developer came to our
village carrying steel pipes and long knives," Gao said in a phone interview. "When we tried to stop
them, they started to beat local villagers, including women and old people, indiscriminately."
According to Gao, more than 2,000 of his fellow residents joined in the fray. After two villagers
were killed, locals got so angry that they captured and killed some of the attackers, he said.
Pictures circulated on Chinese social media site Weibo showed burned bodies of several men in
blue uniforms whose hands and legs were bound. The photos showed some were carrying shields
with the word "police" on them, and a portable tear gas launcher was visible in one picture. The
authenticity of the pictures could not be independently verified and local police only arrived at the
scene after the deadly clash took place.

The Chinese publication Caixin identified the two deceased villagers as Shu Huanzhang and Zhang
Shun but gave no further details. The local government's statement said six people from the
developer's side were killed and a total of 18 people were injured from both sides.
The land in question was designated for the construction of a new logistics center, part of the
government's plan to relocate wholesale markets to the area from the provincial capital, Kunming,
20 miles away.

Many locals opposed the construction plan as soon as the government announced it in 2012. A
total of 12 villages have been affected by the construction plan, according to a petitioning letter
supposedly written by representatives of those villages on popular Chinese forum KDnet.net. The
letter accuses local officials of confiscating their land illegally and taking bribes from the project's
developers.

After trying to petition and failing to get the local government to address their grievances, locals
decided to take matters in their own hands and established teams to patrol the village.
"I went to Beijing three times in 2012 and tried to hand in our material to different government
departments. But we didn't hear back from anyone afterward," Gao said.

When the armed men surrounded his village, Gao said, he didn't bother to call the local police.
"They breathe through the same nose with the developers. They're useless," he said. "The local
party secretary, Chen Haiyan, is not a good person. The local hospital even refused to treat injured
villagers yesterday; we had to send them to Kunming for treatment."
Beijing-based lawyer Li Xiongbing has represented a number of clients in land-confiscation
disputes with local governments. In most cases, he said, there was not much he could do to help
the villagers.

"Under the current system in China, sometimes it's inevitable for the villagers to come down to
using their body and life to defend their home," Li said in an interview. "The local judicial system,
including the court and the police, are all controlled by the local government. It's impossible for the
villagers to seek justice through a local court."

In China's legal system, cases can only be appealed once to a higher court, which means most such
land cases go no further than a city-level court. If cases could advance as far as the Supreme Court
in Beijing, Li believes, they could be adjudicated more strictly in accordance with Chinese law.
As with many other similar land-confiscation disputes, the violent turn in Fuyou village has
catalyzed intervention by higher-level government authorities. After Tuesday's deadly clash, the
local government in Kunming said provincial officials had been dispatched to the scene.

"Why only through violent clashes and people getting killed can those problems get resolved?"
wrote Beijing-based property market columnist Ma Yuecheng in a post on Weibo.

Tommy Yang in the Times' Beijing bureau contributed to this report.

And another report on the same incident with seemingly different details (e.g. dead "construction workers" instead of "armed thugs"). :hmm:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/report-chinese-villagers-burned-workers-death-26233275
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on October 16, 2014, 08:52:22 PM
Common occurance.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 16, 2014, 08:58:46 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 16, 2014, 08:52:22 PM
Common occurance.

What a country!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on October 16, 2014, 09:00:09 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 16, 2014, 08:58:46 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 16, 2014, 08:52:22 PM
Common occurance.

What a country!

A very different world.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 16, 2014, 09:00:55 PM
Yeah, from what I understand those kinds of "mass incidents" number in the thousands every year.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 09:04:47 PM
A profound object lesson in the need for property rights.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on October 16, 2014, 09:05:37 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 16, 2014, 08:58:46 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 16, 2014, 08:52:22 PM
Common occurance.

What a country!

The problem is there is no official land ownership in China.  It is still a communist country.  So all land belongs to "the people".  So it is just a matter of "changing land use" if it is decided that a certain plot of land should be developed into luxury houses, instead of being farmed  ;)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 17, 2014, 01:03:26 PM
I think I read this year's breaking records for labour disputes too.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 17, 2014, 01:05:48 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 17, 2014, 01:03:26 PM
I think I read this year's breaking records for labour disputes too.

Yeah, the economic engine is slowing down a bit. There's bound to be an increase in tension.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on October 22, 2014, 11:15:36 AM
In important Chinese news:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/lovesick-chinese-woman--26--dumped-by-boyfriend-spends-entire-week-in-kfc-131549197.html

QuoteLovesick Chinese woman, 26, dumped by boyfriend spends entire week in KFC

Depressed Tan Shen, 26, from Chengdu, in China's southwest Sichuan Province, decided she needed some fried comfort food to get over her ex.

A lovesick Chinese woman dumped by her boyfriend spent an entire week in a KFC eating chicken wings.

Depressed Tan Shen, 26, from Chengdu, in China's southwest Sichuan Province, decided she needed some fried comfort food to get over her ex.

She stopped off at a KFC near a train station by her home, but ended up staying for a whole week because she 'needed time to think'.

Tan even phoned in sick to work to stay at the KFC, with her break-up clearly hitting her very hard.

She said: 'I was walking around feeling miserable and decided to stop off at the KFC at the train station.

'I hadn't planned on staying there long, I just wanted some chicken wings.

'But once I got in there and started eating I decided I needed time to think.

'I didn't want to go back to my apartment because it was full of memories of him. So I stayed.'

After a few days employees at the chicken shop began to get concerned.

Worker Jiang Li Lung, 22, said: 'We work in shifts here and the restaurant is open 24 hours a day, so we get a lot of people coming through.

'At first no one really noticed her.

'But after a few days I began thinking she looked really familiar.

'Then I realised we had been serving her for the past three days and that she hadn't actually left.

'When we asked her if she was ok, she said she was and just needed time to think.

'And then asked for another box of chicken wings with extra large fries.'

He said the woman wasn't doing anyone any harm so they let her stay.

He added: 'She was after all a paying customer, even if a bit of an odd one.'

After a week Shen decided she'd had enough when local media turned up and decided to write about her.

'I decided the best thing to do would be to leave the city and go back to my parents.

'I had already told work I was off sick, so phoned them and said I was leaving.

'And I was getting sick of the taste of chicken so there was no point in staying there anymore.'

She then boarded the next train to her parents' home in Quingdao city in east China's Shandong Province and left.

Waitress Jiang Li Lung said: 'I guess we kind of miss her. It certainly made work more interesting.'

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fl.yimg.com%2Fos%2Fpublish-images%2Fnews%2F2014-10-21%2Ff1e8a2c0-5923-11e4-84b0-91b6cf0e117a_CEN_KFCGirl_04.jpg&hash=0b32e449dae13dab22630524f2e045d83ff7b69f)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 22, 2014, 01:15:37 PM
That's not the ending I heard

QuoteWhen the news got out on Weibo (the Chinese equivalent of Twitter), that there was a single woman in the KFC, the place was inundated by hordes of CV and payslip waving single men.

One of the men, Liu Peng said "Its rare that we get this opportunity to meet a single woman. She is a little past proper marriageable age but I'm 31 now and have been single since I was in middle school, so I can't really be picky"

Another eager suitor, who chose to remain anonymous said "According to my favourite TV show, 'Friends', the week after a girl has been dumped is the easiest time to get her to marry you. It seems I was not the only one to realise this however"

As a result of the influx of men and the gifts they gave her, Tan Shen is now said to have upgraded to her city's branch of Burger King."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 22, 2014, 04:08:35 PM
A friend of mine who's originally Chinese just came back from three weeks in China (and Vietnam) with her man. She was saying that though Google was entirely shut down, weirdly, the BBC app was still updating about Hong Kong.

Apparently lots of people knew something was happening, because they're used to getting round the Great Firewall. But even her well-off, well connected relatives were asking her and her boyfriend about it because they were more up to date and generally English language sources were more trusted than Chinese.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on October 28, 2014, 09:18:14 PM
We're losing our edge in the West.  :(

http://elitedaily.com/news/world/woman-goes-sex-tour-plans-sleep-men-every-city-visits-photos/815685/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on October 28, 2014, 09:51:21 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 28, 2014, 09:18:14 PM
We're losing our edge in the West.  :(

http://elitedaily.com/news/world/woman-goes-sex-tour-plans-sleep-men-every-city-visits-photos/815685/

Well good luck to her. Exchanging sex for a place to stay sounds a tad dangerous.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 28, 2014, 09:54:05 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 28, 2014, 09:51:21 PM
Exchanging sex for a place to stay sounds a tad dangerous.

Marriage has worked for centuries.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on October 28, 2014, 09:56:35 PM
This feels more like a self-advertisement for marriage rather than a real travel plan.  "Hey look I am pretty and I am willing to date whoever is rich enough."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on October 28, 2014, 09:57:11 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on October 28, 2014, 09:54:05 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 28, 2014, 09:51:21 PM
Exchanging sex for a place to stay sounds a tad dangerous.

Marriage has worked for centuries.

Well 1) I'd say that has proven a pretty fraught institution for women andt 2) I don't think marriage to one person can be so easily compared to X number of men in X number of cities - particularly when you explicitly state that it is an even exchange. Unfortunately there might be some man who thinks he should get "his fair share."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on October 28, 2014, 09:58:05 PM
I didn't say it was a good idea.  Or her trip, for that matter.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 28, 2014, 11:34:26 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 28, 2014, 09:57:11 PM
Well 1) I'd say that has proven a pretty fraught institution for women

How so?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 28, 2014, 11:52:52 PM
If it is so fraught for women why do you support Lesbians being able to marry? :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: alfred russel on October 28, 2014, 11:58:16 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on October 28, 2014, 11:34:26 PM
Quote from: garbon on October 28, 2014, 09:57:11 PM
Well 1) I'd say that has proven a pretty fraught institution for women

How so?

Historically, women have had three paths:

-marriage
-single motherhood
-celibacy

:hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 13, 2014, 06:15:27 PM
Query for the China watchers. What does the Chinese dream mean when Xi and the rest use it?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 13, 2014, 06:23:45 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2014, 06:15:27 PM
Query for the China watchers. What does the Chinese dream mean when Xi and the rest use it?

It's the chosen slogan for this era of his rule, an attempt to encapsulate the values and aspirations of the Party and the people. I'm not super familiar with the nuance here or anything, but the dream is IIRC prosperity for the people, working hard together, socialist values and glory for the nation or something like that.

It's "the American Dream with Chinese characteristics", more or less. "Work hard for a better life, improve social institutions, and make China great."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on November 13, 2014, 06:24:07 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2014, 06:15:27 PM
Query for the China watchers. What does the Chinese dream mean when Xi and the rest use it?

To be rich. Highest GDP in the world. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 13, 2014, 06:24:35 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 13, 2014, 06:24:07 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2014, 06:15:27 PM
Query for the China watchers. What does the Chinese dream mean when Xi and the rest use it?

To be rich. Highest GDP in the world.

That's the Chinese dream when you use it  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 13, 2014, 06:32:47 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 13, 2014, 06:23:45 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2014, 06:15:27 PM
Query for the China watchers. What does the Chinese dream mean when Xi and the rest use it?

It's the chosen slogan for this era of his rule, an attempt to encapsulate the values and aspirations of the Party and the people. I'm not super familiar with the nuance here or anything, but the dream is IIRC prosperity for the people, working hard together, socialist values and glory for the nation or something like that.

It's "the American Dream with Chinese characteristics", more or less. "Work hard for a better life, improve social institutions, and make China great."
Ok. So it's just his 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' or 'harmonious society'.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 13, 2014, 06:33:55 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2014, 06:32:47 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 13, 2014, 06:23:45 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 13, 2014, 06:15:27 PM
Query for the China watchers. What does the Chinese dream mean when Xi and the rest use it?

It's the chosen slogan for this era of his rule, an attempt to encapsulate the values and aspirations of the Party and the people. I'm not super familiar with the nuance here or anything, but the dream is IIRC prosperity for the people, working hard together, socialist values and glory for the nation or something like that.

It's "the American Dream with Chinese characteristics", more or less. "Work hard for a better life, improve social institutions, and make China great."
Ok. So it's just his 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' or 'harmonious society'.

That's my take, yeah.

EDIT: in fact, looking at the wikipedia article (sorry grumbler), near the end it straight up says: According to official party sources, the Chinese Dream is the "essence of Socialism with Chinese characteristics".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 13, 2014, 06:34:14 PM
I think it has to do with improving standards of living and shifting from investment to consumption.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 06, 2014, 12:13:12 AM
Zhou Yongkang's arrest is all over the international news. The interesting bit is the thing about the charges for "divulging secrets to foreign interests" - possibly Wen Jiabao's financial details showing up in the New York Times - which apparently exposes Zhou to a potential death penalty.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 06, 2014, 03:27:37 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 06, 2014, 12:13:12 AM
Zhou Yongkang's arrest is all over the international news. The interesting bit is the thing about the charges for "divulging secrets to foreign interests" - possibly Wen Jiabao's financial details showing up in the New York Times - which apparently exposes Zhou to a potential death penalty.

The rumour is that Zhou tried to assassinate Xi.  So it is personal. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 06, 2014, 11:26:19 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 06, 2014, 03:27:37 AM
The rumour is that Zhou tried to assassinate Xi.  So it is personal.

Yeah, that and the coup rumours that were swirling at the time of the transition makes this particularly interesting. Of all the unsympathetic high ranking Communists, Zhou Yongkang has to be one of the most unpleasant ones - being the guy responsible for the industrialization of the trade in organs, for the persecution of the Falun Gong, for the habitual arrest and detention of provincial petitioners travelling to Beijing, and for the huge growth in internal labour camps.

That and the murder of his wife - apparently the two guys who drove the car that killed her got sentenced to 20+ years in prison. Somehow they got released after a few years and achieved rapid promotions to senior positions in the oil industry (I believe it was the oil industry).

Zhou has had a pretty unpleasant reputation for a while, before the leadership transition, even for a Standing Member of the Politburo of the CCP.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on December 06, 2014, 06:18:04 PM
I guess his plot power wasn't high enough.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 06, 2014, 06:21:45 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 06, 2014, 11:26:19 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 06, 2014, 03:27:37 AM
The rumour is that Zhou tried to assassinate Xi.  So it is personal.

Yeah, that and the coup rumours that were swirling at the time of the transition makes this particularly interesting. Of all the unsympathetic high ranking Communists, Zhou Yongkang has to be one of the most unpleasant ones - being the guy responsible for the industrialization of the trade in organs, for the persecution of the Falun Gong, for the habitual arrest and detention of provincial petitioners travelling to Beijing, and for the huge growth in internal labour camps.

That and the murder of his wife - apparently the two guys who drove the car that killed her got sentenced to 20+ years in prison. Somehow they got released after a few years and achieved rapid promotions to senior positions in the oil industry (I believe it was the oil industry).

Zhou has had a pretty unpleasant reputation for a while, before the leadership transition, even for a Standing Member of the Politburo of the CCP.

To be fair though, Zhou was the internal security czar.  It was his job. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: citizen k on February 17, 2015, 07:26:24 PM

Quote

'Commie-loving Mainlanders' targeted at Hong Kong's top university
By Clare Baldwin and Lizzie Ko

HONG KONG (Reuters) - A campus election at a top Hong Kong university degenerated into an acrimonious campaign against mainland Chinese candidates, highlighting simmering tensions two months after pro-democracy protests led by local students paralysed parts of the city.

Mainland students say they have always felt a distance from their local peers, but recent events in the Chinese-controlled city have fueled a burgeoning Hong Kong identity among many younger residents, alongside frustration and anger at Beijing.

"To brainwashed Commie-loving Mainlanders, we despise you!", read a flyer posted on the University of Hong Kong's (HKU) "Democracy Wall", underscoring the sharpening divide. The flyer has since been removed.

The so-called "Umbrella Movement" protests late last year, calling for full democracy in Hong Kong, posed the greatest challenge to China's authority since the crushing of a pro-democracy movement in Beijing in 1989.

The Communist Party's People's Daily said this week that life for mainland students in Hong Kong was "getting tougher", and the roughly 150,000 young people it estimates live in the territory were "being treated unfairly as collateral targets".

Divisions at HKU bubbled to the surface when a young woman running for the student union was accused of being a Beijing spy and subjected to online abuse after a campus television report highlighted her Communist Party Youth League membership.

A pro-Beijing newspaper leapt to her defense, warning against what it described as a dangerous "McCarthyite trend" in the former British colony.

Millions of Chinese schoolchildren are members of the Party's Youth League and Young Pioneers.

When another student in the same election confirmed that his grandfather had been a Communist Party member, bright red fliers merging an image of his face with that of Mao Zedong were plastered across his campaign posters.

Despite the accompanying warning to students to "Beware of the Communists, be careful when you vote!" his cabinet, as groups of students running on the same ticket are called, ultimately won.

POLARIZED

"At the time of an election, sometimes things get a little bit polarized," said HKU Dean of Student Affairs Albert Chau. "In the past even in campaigns between two local cabinets there were remarks made about political affiliation, political association which I don't think were very healthy."

Chau said isolated incidents should not seen as a sign of growing tension between mainland Chinese and locals.

Some students are not so sure.

"Hong Kong people are trying to control their hatred towards mainland China or people from mainland China, but you can still feel it," said Norah Zheng, a second-year HKU sociology student from Shandong province. "Mainland students somewhat hate local students as well because we feel this hatred from them."

The divide seems sharpest at HKU - students and professors at other Hong Kong universities said relations between local and mainland students had not worsened since the protests.

HKU had the most mainland students of the city's eight publicly-funded universities last year at nearly 3,000, or 16 percent of the student body, according to government data.

"The situation in Hong Kong has definitely become more political," said Nora Lam, the HKU CampusTV reporter whose story about student candidate Eugenia Yip sparked the spy controversy.

"Many student leaders of the Umbrella Movement were Student Union members, so I think it's justifiable that people are so concerned with the candidates' political views or influence."

In January, Hong Kong leader Leung Chun-ying expressed concern that universities could be incubating a separatist movement that would threaten Beijing's sovereignty.

"We must stay alert," he said, singling out HKU's student union magazine Undergrad for advocating self-determination.

"We also ask political figures with close ties to the leaders of the student movement to advise them against putting forward such fallacies."




Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 17, 2015, 09:16:35 PM
It is really bad now.  For two weeks in a row, there were anti-mainland tourist riots in different parts of Hong Kong.  Hundreds of people gathered in malls and shouted slogans against the toursts, telling them to leave and calling them names (locusts being the favourite). 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 08:21:20 AM
I guess angry Hong Kongers found a safer target to vent their frustration on than the government.

I was amused to see the Chinese Government reference McCarthy.  Kind of an obscure reference for non-Americans I would think.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 18, 2015, 08:39:24 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 08:21:20 AM
I guess angry Hong Kongers found a safer target to vent their frustration on than the government.

I was amused to see the Chinese Government reference McCarthy.  Kind of an obscure reference for non-Americans I would think.

Nah, they targetted mainland tourists not because it is a safe target.  Imagine tens of millions of tourists come to your city, and they do so not only on the busy weeks like Christmas, but 365 days a year.  They are going to turn your world upside down, and this is exactly what happened here, to an already cramped place.  All your favourite retail places will be gone, replaced by shops that only the tourists want, in our case thousands and thousands of drug stores, jewelry stores, Swiss watch places.  Everything will go much more expensive, from meals to housing to baby milk powder.  They don't just go to the landmarks.  The mainland tourists swarm all of HK's malls, supermarkets, they are everywhere.  They aren't here for sightseeing.  They are here because they don't trust their own supermarkets, drug stores and jewelry stores that sell fakes.  Hundreds of thousands of professional tourists travel between HK and the mainland, making several round trips a day to smuggle small quantities of milk powder, toilet paper and instant noodles to the mainland.  Imagine what this does to our public transport system.  Imagine local mothers can't buy milk powder for their newborns.  Imagine tourists taking up your hospital places so that locals can't have access to hospital beds.  Some of the bahaviour of the tourists don't help, like not respecting queues, peeing everywhere, shitting in swimming pools (yes, they love our swimming pools because mainland pools are more expensive) etc.

They feel they have to scare the tourists away themselves because the government want more tourists to come to get more business. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 08:42:25 AM
Well now I only said it was safer, not safe.  I think they are attacking the mainlanders as a proxy for the government as they feel powerless to have any impact on how their city is run.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 18, 2015, 08:47:05 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 08:42:25 AM
Well now I only said it was safer, not safe.  I think they are attacking the mainlanders as a proxy for the government as they feel powerless to have any impact on how their city is run.

The anger against the tourists is severe even among pro-government groups.  Most civil servants are pro-government, but everybody I meet complain about the tourists.  They are not just making the queues for the giant Buddha longer.  They are making housing prices reach insane levels, taking away school and hospital places, turning malls into nothing but a collection of drug stores and jewelry places. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 08:49:38 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 18, 2015, 08:47:05 AM
They are not just making the queues for the giant Buddha longer.

Their attachment to seeing the giant Buddha is the source of their unhappiness :om:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 18, 2015, 08:55:06 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 08:49:38 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 18, 2015, 08:47:05 AM
They are not just making the queues for the giant Buddha longer.

Their attachment to seeing the giant Buddha is the source of their unhappiness :om:

The real source of their unhappiness is that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on February 18, 2015, 09:40:07 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 08:21:20 AM
I guess angry Hong Kongers found a safer target to vent their frustration on than the government.

I was amused to see the Chinese Government reference McCarthy.  Kind of an obscure reference for non-Americans I would think.

Not in the least, it's used and referenced over here too. The good senator is quite infamous.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 09:41:45 AM
Quote from: celedhring on February 18, 2015, 09:40:07 AM
Not in the least, it's used and referenced over here too. The good senator is quite infamous.

'Politician tries to score points by taking advantage of public paranoia'

Is that really so unique?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on February 18, 2015, 10:15:27 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 09:41:45 AM
Quote from: celedhring on February 18, 2015, 09:40:07 AM
Not in the least, it's used and referenced over here too. The good senator is quite infamous.

'Politician tries to score points by taking advantage of public paranoia'

Is that really so unique?

Given that we haven't had that many elected politicians in our history, I'd say yeah  :P  Franco didn't need to make up many excuses to get people out of the way.

But your culture is our culture. It shouldn't be surprising that we adopt so many American references when you enjoy the kind of cultural dominance you have.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 18, 2015, 10:25:00 AM
BBC news is doing the usual report on people going on 20 hour train journeys and all that sort of thing because of the new year.
After the report the guy said "For BBC news this is Martin Patience".
Patience.
Ha.
That made me smile.

I'm going to try and make some gyoza (餃子, dunno the Chinese pronunciation) to celebrate Chinese new year...or rather because a Chinese friend was talking about them and made me want some.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on February 18, 2015, 10:30:30 AM
Frozen gyoza are one of the cheap, tasty items that one can get at Trader Joe's. :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 10:31:17 AM
I am not celebrating Chinese New Year until somebody gives me a red envelope full of money.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 10:33:12 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 18, 2015, 08:55:06 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 18, 2015, 08:49:38 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 18, 2015, 08:47:05 AM
They are not just making the queues for the giant Buddha longer.

Their attachment to seeing the giant Buddha is the source of their unhappiness :om:

The real source of their unhappiness is that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. 

Making it harder and harder to live in their city.  Tourist destination cities really suffer from that as a rule and I can only imagine in Hong Kong and Macau it is magnified.

But I was just making a Buddhist joke.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 18, 2015, 10:44:18 AM
Quote from: garbon on February 18, 2015, 10:30:30 AM
Frozen gyoza are one of the cheap, tasty items that one can get at Trader Joe's. :)
They have them even in the regular non-oriental supermarkets here.
But they're damn expensive <_<
But oh well. If I fail to make my own I can always buy them on sale next week!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 19, 2015, 08:09:42 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 18, 2015, 10:25:00 AM
BBC news is doing the usual report on people going on 20 hour train journeys and all that sort of thing because of the new year.
After the report the guy said "For BBC news this is Martin Patience".
Patience.
Ha.
That made me smile.

I'm going to try and make some gyoza (餃子, dunno the Chinese pronunciation) to celebrate Chinese new year...or rather because a Chinese friend was talking about them and made me want some.

Jiaozi in Mandarin.  Gaozi in Cantonese.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 07, 2015, 08:42:56 AM
Interesting, provocative piece. It does seem a brave thing to take on the allies of a previous leader, no?
Quote(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FBN-HG952_cover_P_20150306105233.jpg&hash=50b0332f801c73592dd2379feca73480ccdc0625)
Chinese President Xi Jinping, front center, and other Chinese leaders attend the opening meeting on Thursday of the third session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. PHOTO: XINHUA/ZUMA PRESS
By DAVID SHAMBAUGH
March 6, 2015 11:26 a.m. ET
137 COMMENTS
On Thursday, the National People's Congress convened in Beijing in what has become a familiar annual ritual. Some 3,000 "elected" delegates from all over the country—ranging from colorfully clad ethnic minorities to urbane billionaires—will meet for a week to discuss the state of the nation and to engage in the pretense of political participation.

Some see this impressive gathering as a sign of the strength of the Chinese political system—but it masks serious weaknesses. Chinese politics has always had a theatrical veneer, with staged events like the congress intended to project the power and stability of the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP. Officials and citizens alike know that they are supposed to conform to these rituals, participating cheerfully and parroting back official slogans. This behavior is known in Chinese as biaotai, "declaring where one stands," but it is little more than an act of symbolic compliance.

Despite appearances, China's political system is badly broken, and nobody knows it better than the Communist Party itself. China's strongman leader, Xi Jinping , is hoping that a crackdown on dissent and corruption will shore up the party's rule. He is determined to avoid becoming the Mikhail Gorbachev of China, presiding over the party's collapse. But instead of being the antithesis of Mr. Gorbachev, Mr. Xi may well wind up having the same effect. His despotism is severely stressing China's system and society—and bringing it closer to a breaking point.

Predicting the demise of authoritarian regimes is a risky business. Few Western experts forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union before it occurred in 1991; the CIA missed it entirely. The downfall of Eastern Europe's communist states two years earlier was similarly scorned as the wishful thinking of anticommunists—until it happened. The post-Soviet "color revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan from 2003 to 2005, as well as the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, all burst forth unanticipated.

China-watchers have been on high alert for telltale signs of regime decay and decline ever since the regime's near-death experience in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Since then, several seasoned Sinologists have risked their professional reputations by asserting that the collapse of CCP rule was inevitable. Others were more cautious—myself included. But times change in China, and so must our analyses.

The endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun, I believe, and it has progressed further than many think. We don't know what the pathway from now until the end will look like, of course. It will probably be highly unstable and unsettled. But until the system begins to unravel in some obvious way, those inside of it will play along—thus contributing to the facade of stability.

Communist rule in China is unlikely to end quietly. A single event is unlikely to trigger a peaceful implosion of the regime. Its demise is likely to be protracted, messy and violent. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Mr. Xi will be deposed in a power struggle or coup d'état. With his aggressive anticorruption campaign—a focus of this week's National People's Congress—he is overplaying a weak hand and deeply aggravating key party, state, military and commercial constituencies.

The Chinese have a proverb, waiying, neiruan—hard on the outside, soft on the inside. Mr. Xi is a genuinely tough ruler. He exudes conviction and personal confidence. But this hard personality belies a party and political system that is extremely fragile on the inside.

Consider five telling indications of the regime's vulnerability and the party's systemic weaknesses.

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A military band conductor during the opening session of the National People's Congress on Thursday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS
First, China's economic elites have one foot out the door, and they are ready to flee en masse if the system really begins to crumble. In 2014, Shanghai's Hurun Research Institute, which studies China's wealthy, found that 64% of the "high net worth individuals" whom it polled—393 millionaires and billionaires—were either emigrating or planning to do so. Rich Chinese are sending their children to study abroad in record numbers (in itself, an indictment of the quality of the Chinese higher-education system).

Just this week, the Journal reported, federal agents searched several Southern California locations that U.S. authorities allege are linked to "multimillion-dollar birth-tourism businesses that enabled thousands of Chinese women to travel here and return home with infants born as U.S. citizens." Wealthy Chinese are also buying property abroad at record levels and prices, and they are parking their financial assets overseas, often in well-shielded tax havens and shell companies.

Meanwhile, Beijing is trying to extradite back to China a large number of alleged financial fugitives living abroad. When a country's elites—many of them party members—flee in such large numbers, it is a telling sign of lack of confidence in the regime and the country's future.


Second, since taking office in 2012, Mr. Xi has greatly intensified the political repression that has blanketed China since 2009. The targets include the press, social media, film, arts and literature, religious groups, the Internet, intellectuals, Tibetans and Uighurs, dissidents, lawyers, NGOs, university students and textbooks. The Central Committee sent a draconian order known as Document No. 9 down through the party hierarchy in 2013, ordering all units to ferret out any seeming endorsement of the West's "universal values"—including constitutional democracy, civil society, a free press and neoliberal economics.

A more secure and confident government would not institute such a severe crackdown. It is a symptom of the party leadership's deep anxiety and insecurity.

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A protester is pushed to the ground by a paramilitary policeman in Beijing on Wednesday before the opening of the National People's Congress nearby. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS
Third, even many regime loyalists are just going through the motions. It is hard to miss the theater of false pretense that has permeated the Chinese body politic for the past few years. Last summer, I was one of a handful of foreigners (and the only American) who attended a conference about the "China Dream," Mr. Xi's signature concept, at a party-affiliated think tank in Beijing. We sat through two days of mind-numbing, nonstop presentations by two dozen party scholars—but their faces were frozen, their body language was wooden, and their boredom was palpable. They feigned compliance with the party and their leader's latest mantra. But it was evident that the propaganda had lost its power, and the emperor had no clothes.

In December, I was back in Beijing for a conference at the Central Party School, the party's highest institution of doctrinal instruction, and once again, the country's top officials and foreign policy experts recited their stock slogans verbatim. During lunch one day, I went to the campus bookstore—always an important stop so that I can update myself on what China's leading cadres are being taught. Tomes on the store's shelves ranged from Lenin's "Selected Works" to Condoleezza Rice's memoirs, and a table at the entrance was piled high with copies of a pamphlet by Mr. Xi on his campaign to promote the "mass line"—that is, the party's connection to the masses. "How is this selling?" I asked the clerk. "Oh, it's not," she replied. "We give it away." The size of the stack suggested it was hardly a hot item.

Fourth, the corruption that riddles the party-state and the military also pervades Chinese society as a whole. Mr. Xi's anticorruption campaign is more sustained and severe than any previous one, but no campaign can eliminate the problem. It is stubbornly rooted in the single-party system, patron-client networks, an economy utterly lacking in transparency, a state-controlled media and the absence of the rule of law.

Moreover, Mr. Xi's campaign is turning out to be at least as much a selective purge as an antigraft campaign. Many of its targets to date have been political clients and allies of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin . Now 88, Mr. Jiang is still the godfather figure of Chinese politics. Going after Mr. Jiang's patronage network while he is still alive is highly risky for Mr. Xi, particularly since Mr. Xi doesn't seem to have brought along his own coterie of loyal clients to promote into positions of power. Another problem: Mr. Xi, a child of China's first-generation revolutionary elites, is one of the party's "princelings," and his political ties largely extend to other princelings. This silver-spoon generation is widely reviled in Chinese society at large.

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Mr. Xi at the Schloss Bellevue presidential residency during his visit to fellow export powerhouse Germany in Berlin on March 28, 2014. PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Finally, China's economy—for all the Western views of it as an unstoppable juggernaut—is stuck in a series of systemic traps from which there is no easy exit. In November 2013, Mr. Xi presided over the party's Third Plenum, which unveiled a huge package of proposed economic reforms, but so far, they are sputtering on the launchpad. Yes, consumer spending has been rising, red tape has been reduced, and some fiscal reforms have been introduced, but overall, Mr. Xi's ambitious goals have been stillborn. The reform package challenges powerful, deeply entrenched interest groups—such as state-owned enterprises and local party cadres—and they are plainly blocking its implementation.

These five increasingly evident cracks in the regime's control can be fixed only through political reform. Until and unless China relaxes its draconian political controls, it will never become an innovative society and a "knowledge economy"—a main goal of the Third Plenum reforms. The political system has become the primary impediment to China's needed social and economic reforms. If Mr. Xi and party leaders don't relax their grip, they may be summoning precisely the fate they hope to avoid.

In the decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the upper reaches of China's leadership have been obsessed with the fall of its fellow communist giant. Hundreds of Chinese postmortem analyses have dissected the causes of the Soviet disintegration.

Mr. Xi's real "China Dream" has been to avoid the Soviet nightmare. Just a few months into his tenure, he gave a telling internal speech ruing the Soviet Union's demise and bemoaning Mr. Gorbachev's betrayals, arguing that Moscow had lacked a "real man" to stand up to its reformist last leader. Mr. Xi's wave of repression today is meant to be the opposite of Mr. Gorbachev's perestroika and glasnost. Instead of opening up, Mr. Xi is doubling down on controls over dissenters, the economy and even rivals within the party.

But reaction and repression aren't Mr. Xi's only option. His predecessors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao , drew very different lessons from the Soviet collapse. From 2000 to 2008, they instituted policies intended to open up the system with carefully limited political reforms.

They strengthened local party committees and experimented with voting for multicandidate party secretaries. They recruited more businesspeople and intellectuals into the party. They expanded party consultation with nonparty groups and made the Politburo's proceedings more transparent. They improved feedback mechanisms within the party, implemented more meritocratic criteria for evaluation and promotion, and created a system of mandatory midcareer training for all 45 million state and party cadres. They enforced retirement requirements and rotated officials and military officers between job assignments every couple of years.

In effect, for a while Mr. Jiang and Mr. Hu sought to manage change, not to resist it. But Mr. Xi wants none of this. Since 2009 (when even the heretofore open-minded Mr. Hu changed course and started to clamp down), an increasingly anxious regime has rolled back every single one of these political reforms (with the exception of the cadre-training system). These reforms were masterminded by Mr. Jiang's political acolyte and former vice president, Zeng Qinghong, who retired in 2008 and is now under suspicion in Mr. Xi's anticorruption campaign—another symbol of Mr. Xi's hostility to the measures that might ease the ills of a crumbling system.

Some experts think that Mr. Xi's harsh tactics may actually presage a more open and reformist direction later in his term. I don't buy it. This leader and regime see politics in zero-sum terms: Relaxing control, in their view, is a sure step toward the demise of the system and their own downfall. They also take the conspiratorial view that the U.S. is actively working to subvert Communist Party rule. None of this suggests that sweeping reforms are just around the corner.

We cannot predict when Chinese communism will collapse, but it is hard not to conclude that we are witnessing its final phase. The CCP is the world's second-longest ruling regime (behind only North Korea), and no party can rule forever.

Looking ahead, China-watchers should keep their eyes on the regime's instruments of control and on those assigned to use those instruments. Large numbers of citizens and party members alike are already voting with their feet and leaving the country or displaying their insincerity by pretending to comply with party dictates.

We should watch for the day when the regime's propaganda agents and its internal security apparatus start becoming lax in enforcing the party's writ—or when they begin to identify with dissidents, like the East German Stasi agent in the film "The Lives of Others" who came to sympathize with the targets of his spying. When human empathy starts to win out over ossified authority, the endgame of Chinese communism will really have begun.

Dr. Shambaugh is a professor of international affairs and the director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. His books include "China's Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation" and, most recently, "China Goes Global: The Partial Power."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 07, 2015, 08:44:17 PM
This is the most dangerous sign for Xi, hard to be a long lasting strongman if you don't put your own cadre of supporters in power

QuoteGoing after Mr. Jiang's patronage network while he is still alive is highly risky for Mr. Xi, particularly since Mr. Xi doesn't seem to have brought along his own coterie of loyal clients to promote into positions of power. Another problem: Mr. Xi, a child of China's first-generation revolutionary elites, is one of the party's "princelings," and his political ties largely extend to other princelings. This silver-spoon generation is widely reviled in Chinese society at large.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 08, 2015, 11:50:04 PM
How much of this is an objective evaluation of the communist party's future, and how much of it is wishful thinking?  These predictions appear on an almost weekly if not daily basis, but we are talking about a party that has survived the great leap forward, the cultural revolution and Tian An Men.  Some of the arguments mentioned are not convincing.  China's students have studied in overseas countries for more than a century, and there is a long tradition of moving to other places for a better life.  Using that as his first piece of evidence seems weak.  The other pieces of evidence, like bored officials at a seminar or free copies of the leader's teachings, are not impressive either.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 09, 2015, 12:15:15 AM
QuoteWhy a Confucian revival and the Internet could have unexpected consequences for China
Michael Schuman | March 4, 2015 7:30am
Tech Tank
Brookings


For much of China's imperial age, Confucius served – unwillingly – as a tool of autocratic emperors. Today, China's new emperors – the leaders of the Communist Party – are again turning to Confucius to build support for their dictatorial rule. However, the Communists can't ensure their political future by relying on the country's philosophical past.

Perhaps the greatest tragedy of Confucius's enduring influence on East Asian civilization is that he has become so intimately associated with authoritarianism. Confucius the historical philosopher spent his life preaching that good government should be based on benevolence and authority must be earned by virtuous acts, not imposed through coercion.

Unfortunately, those lofty ideals were sidelined when Confucius's teachings became the imperial state's orthodox ideology. An army of scholar-officials reinterpreted Confucius to suit their royal masters, by stressing virtues like filial piety and conceptualizing society as a strict hierarchy with the emperor at its apex. Confucius became a symbol to convince the masses that the emperors possessed the "Mandate of Heaven" – or the moral right to rule.

It is this imperial Confucius who the Communists think could win them that same Mandate. For much of its existence, the Communist Party had vilified the great sage as a feudal leftover, and during the Mao Zedong years, they tried to purge him from society. But the Communists had a change of heart in the 1980s after the introduction of "socialism with Chinese characteristics" – or what the rest of us call capitalism. The Marxist bombast of Mao sounded out of touch with the affluent times, so the regime required a new ideology to justify its rule.

Confucius seemed the perfect solution. Here was an undeniably Chinese political tradition that, the Communists believed, could uphold their totalitarian rule as it did the emperors', and at the same time fight off unwanted democratic ideas from the West. State newspapers that had once excoriated the sage instead praised him. Communist leaders litter their speeches with Confucian-sounding terms like "harmony." The campaign has intensified under current President Xi Jinping, who quotes Confucius and other Confucian thinkers so often he can sound more like a Ming Dynasty mandarin than a modern Marxist. Following in the footsteps of the emperors – literally – he went on a pilgrimage to Qufu, Confucius's hometown, in 2013, where he committed to study Confucian texts.

Confucius, however, won't serve the Communists as dutifully as he did the emperors. The Communist Confucian campaign has so far not been intensive enough. In the imperial age, the government pounded its version of Confucian ideals into the minds of the public with relentless perseverance. The only way to pass the grueling exams necessary to enter the civil service was to master the Confucian classics. Confucian mores infused family rituals. Confucius provided a kind of glue to hold society together.

What Beijing is attempting to create today is not a Confucian state but something more like "authoritarianism with Chinese characteristics." Though Xi Jinping has been advocating that schools teach the Chinese classics, we're still far from a true revival of Confucian education on a wide scale. Unless the Confucian campaign goes beyond mere slogans and exhortations, it's hard to imagine Confucius becoming a pillar of a new, Communist-led empire.

Beijing's Communists are also facing a vastly changed world than their predecessors. During the dynastic period, Chinese civilization had no real challenges from the outside. Invaders like the Mongols were absorbed into Confucian culture. Now Chinese are exposed to all sorts of influences from the Internet, foreign movies and TV programs, and overseas travel and education. That has changed their expectations about government and their ideas on how society should function. Confucius has (and should have) a place as part of this global culture, but that doesn't mean Beijing's leaders can impose their own version of a Confucian orthodoxy and shut out unwanted ideas from the rest of the world.

In fact, Confucius could end up mixing with those foreign ideals and generating political tumult. By reintroducing Confucius, the party is encouraging ordinary Chinese to revisit Confucius's teachings on their own. Confucian schools have opened and book clubs have formed. The Confucius they discover in those pages may not be the Confucius of Xi Jinping, but the Confucius of high moral principles who stood up to the rulers of his day. China's citizens may compare their leaders today against Confucius's lofty standards, and find them wanting.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 09, 2015, 01:30:41 AM
I think the real glue that works is nationalism.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on March 09, 2015, 02:58:01 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 09, 2015, 01:30:41 AM
I think the real glue that works is nationalism.

That's how I have always interpreted China's expansionism of recent times.

Also, there's been an onslaught of nationalistic Chinese films in the past few years, when previously the Chinese government didn't give a shit about backing film production.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 09, 2015, 07:17:02 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 08, 2015, 11:50:04 PM
How much of this is an objective evaluation of the communist party's future, and how much of it is wishful thinking?  These predictions appear on an almost weekly if not daily basis, but we are talking about a party that has survived the great leap forward, the cultural revolution and Tian An Men.  Some of the arguments mentioned are not convincing.  China's students have studied in overseas countries for more than a century, and there is a long tradition of moving to other places for a better life.  Using that as his first piece of evidence seems weak.  The other pieces of evidence, like bored officials at a seminar or free copies of the leader's teachings, are not impressive either.

Why would a Chinese collapse be something one would wish for?  The implications would be pretty severe.  Now a corrupt Chinese state teetering along?  That works.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 09, 2015, 07:43:17 AM
Quote from: Valmy on March 09, 2015, 07:17:02 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 08, 2015, 11:50:04 PM
How much of this is an objective evaluation of the communist party's future, and how much of it is wishful thinking?  These predictions appear on an almost weekly if not daily basis, but we are talking about a party that has survived the great leap forward, the cultural revolution and Tian An Men.  Some of the arguments mentioned are not convincing.  China's students have studied in overseas countries for more than a century, and there is a long tradition of moving to other places for a better life.  Using that as his first piece of evidence seems weak.  The other pieces of evidence, like bored officials at a seminar or free copies of the leader's teachings, are not impressive either.

Why would a Chinese collapse be something one would wish for?  The implications would be pretty severe.  Now a corrupt Chinese state teetering along?  That works.
Is anyone saying China is going to collapse?

Saying the Communist Party isn't going to last forever doesn't mean that China is going anywhere. It could collapse into interminable civil war (it won't) and it would eventually bounce back as one of the world's strongest states simply due to the fact that there are 900 million ethnic Han.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 09, 2015, 07:46:53 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on March 09, 2015, 07:43:17 AM
Is anyone saying China is going to collapse?

Saying the Communist Party isn't going to last forever doesn't mean that China is going anywhere. It could collapse into interminable civil war (it won't) and it would eventually bounce back as one of the world's strongest states simply due to the fact that there are 900 million ethnic Han.

Oh for Godsake Tim, I did not mean that the Earth would open up and China would disappear into its maw.  I meant if China became destabilized.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 09, 2015, 11:21:17 AM
The article seems somewhat off from my perspective - not that I'm an expert.

My read of Xi's purges is that they're in large parts reactive. Zhou Yongkang - a Jiang Zemin ally, if I'm not mistaken - seemingly tried to pull off a coup - somewhere between a hard coup and a soft coup - against Xi prior to his installation. It only seems reasonable that Xi repays that bill.

Basically, the way I see it is that the purges are a symptom of the problem. In this case, the problem is the classic one that once a single group has had a firm monopoly of power, factions within that group will struggle for the power and that struggle will become more intense.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 09, 2015, 11:27:37 AM
I don't see why you'd consider any purges in a consolidation and strengthening of power for a relatively new leader as "reactive"--it's a very proactive move.  Always has been for new leadership.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 09, 2015, 11:36:25 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 09, 2015, 11:27:37 AM
I don't see why you'd consider any purges in a consolidation and strengthening of power for a relatively new leader as "reactive"--it's a very proactive move.  Always has been for new leadership.

Fair enough - and even more so if the people being purged tried to take you out previously.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 13, 2015, 04:32:35 PM
Some ig'nant ass motherfuckers.   :lol:

QuoteChinese tourists in Thailand make headlines again after washing feet in bathroom sinks

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fshanghaiist.com%2Fattachments%2Fshang_shanghaiist%2Ftourist-feet-sink.PNG&hash=8fcb1b13e03dd553c285a140bf36efff72d5b227)

Chinese tourists continue to attract criticism for a distinct lack of etiquette abroad, this time for washing their feet and shoes in public toilet sinks on Phi Phi island, Thailand.

Thai media have chastised the culprits for their "inappropriate" conduct, with Chinese media outlet NetEase publishing images capturing the crude act.

This is not the first time there has been an outcry over the boorish behavior of Chinese tourists in Thailand. Notably, a Chinese man was questioned by police after a drunken joyride in a stolen pedicab, and a group of Chinese tourists were busted pushing over barricades at the Grand Palace in Bangkok by security footage.

Given the recent spate of Chinese travelers abusing the amenities at tourist sites in Thailand, Thai officials may wish to reconsider their decision not to introduce separated toilets to accommodate the unruliness of Chinese tourists.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 13, 2015, 04:36:59 PM
My first reaction after seeing those photos is - how is that pose humanly possible?  That's awesome acrobatics there. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 13, 2015, 05:16:35 PM
I wash my feet in the sink all the time.  :showoff:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 13, 2015, 05:17:51 PM
Your sink, perhaps.  Not the sink at Panera Bread.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 13, 2015, 05:22:20 PM
Yeah, but they're the same height.

If I was homeless, though...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on March 13, 2015, 05:54:17 PM
Gross
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 13, 2015, 06:11:42 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 08, 2015, 11:50:04 PM
How much of this is an objective evaluation of the communist party's future, and how much of it is wishful thinking?  These predictions appear on an almost weekly if not daily basis, but we are talking about a party that has survived the great leap forward, the cultural revolution and Tian An Men.  Some of the arguments mentioned are not convincing.  China's students have studied in overseas countries for more than a century, and there is a long tradition of moving to other places for a better life.  Using that as his first piece of evidence seems weak.  The other pieces of evidence, like bored officials at a seminar or free copies of the leader's teachings, are not impressive either.
Fair enough.

The piece is striking because David Shambaugh generally isn't a writer who routinely predicts the collapse of the CCP (and he's influential in Washington). It's striking that he's saying this. As the Global Times put it he used to be seen as a 'moderate China scholar', but now he's a 'vanguard agitator' :lol:

QuoteBasically, the way I see it is that the purges are a symptom of the problem. In this case, the problem is the classic one that once a single group has had a firm monopoly of power, factions within that group will struggle for the power and that struggle will become more intense.
Is that not part of his point when he says that he could foresee Xi facing another coup? So far the Chinese system has managed to keep the factionalism less overt and less serious (not least because the economy was growing fast and everyone could get rich together), if it loses that and the struggle becomes more intense then I think the risks are pretty high.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on April 08, 2015, 11:11:17 AM
Thought this was interesting:  http://news.yahoo.com/china-turns-nationalist-veterans-outcasts-propaganda-heroes-072029419.html

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on April 08, 2015, 02:33:10 PM
Quote from: derspiess on April 08, 2015, 11:11:17 AM
Thought this was interesting:  http://news.yahoo.com/china-turns-nationalist-veterans-outcasts-propaganda-heroes-072029419.html

"We have always been at war with Eastasia."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on April 14, 2015, 01:13:28 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-32282029

QuoteChina scraps unlimited Hong Kong entry for Shenzhen residents

China is to stop issuing multiple entry Hong Kong visas to residents of Shenzhen, state media reports.

The move is an attempt by Beijing to ease growing anger in Hong Kong over shopping trips by mainlanders who take advantage of lower taxes.

Shenzhen residents will now only be able to enter Hong Kong once per week, and stay for no longer than a week.

Hong Kong officials say 47 million visits were made in 2014 by mainland Chinese people.

QuoteJuliana Liu, BBC News, Hong Kong

Hong Kong activists who have been campaigning against parallel traders are celebrating what they call a small victory. The new policy is a clear sign that, despite a lack of capitulation to last year's Occupy Central pro-democracy protests, this time - when the row is over livelihood rather than political issues - the Chinese government will try to appease Hong Kong residents. Ronald Leung, a volunteer with the North District Parallel Imports Concern Group, told the BBC the policy change was an effort by central authorities to boost the popularity of pro-Beijing Chief Executive CY Leung. But the activists believe any drop in parallel trading will be temporary. There continues to be enormous demand by mainland Chinese for food and household goods sold in Hong Kong. They say the Shenzhen residents who had been ferrying those products will soon be replaced by Hong Kong residents who are not subject to travel restrictions.

About a tenth of those visits were by people who entered Hong Kong more than once a week, a large proportion of them Shenzhen residents holding multiple entry visas.

Many of the visitors buy up household goods in bulk to resell across the border - as Hong Kong does not charge sales tax - despite this being illegal.

There have been angry protests in recent months over this so-called parallel trading, occasionally resulting in scuffles in shopping malls close to the border.

China's Xinhua news agency, citing the ministry of security, said on Monday that the new rules applied immediately.

It said the decision had been made because of concerns that Hong Kong was struggling to cope with the huge numbers of tourists.

Hong Kong's Chief Executive CY Leung welcomed the move, saying he had raised the issue with Beijing in June.

Mainlanders have to get permission from their government to enter Hong Kong.

Mr Leung warned that existing visas would remain valid, meaning it could take some time for the effect of the change to be seen.

He also cautioned that the "unruly protests" seen in towns close to the border had actually hampered the discussions and "hurt the feelings between the people of Hong Kong and the mainland", the South China Morning Post reports.

Parallel trading has been a key factor in the growing anti-mainland sentiment in Hong Kong.

There is huge demand in China for household items from Hong Kong, in particular milk powder, as they are seen as being both cheaper and better quality.

Hong Kongers say this trade pushes up costs and causes huge delays at border crossings, while also complaining about poor behaviour from mainlanders.

The authorities on both sides of the border routinely arrest people caught smuggling and crack down on commercial operators, but locals have long demanded more decisive action.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 14, 2015, 07:21:38 PM
I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 15, 2015, 08:04:09 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 14, 2015, 07:21:38 PM
I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade. 

You should only vote for those who agree to support free trade.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on April 15, 2015, 08:07:26 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 14, 2015, 07:21:38 PM
I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade.

Is the problem with the mainlanders really that bad?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 08:18:08 AM
Quote from: Syt on April 15, 2015, 08:07:26 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 14, 2015, 07:21:38 PM
I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade.

Is the problem with the mainlanders really that bad?

Yeah.  There is an estimate that HK gets more visitors per year than the UK.  For such a small place, it is way over our capacity.  It has transformed our retail scene that only shops that cater to rich mainland tourists can survive the obscene levels of rent.  Our public transport system is overloaded.  There is very high inflation of basic necessities, as local HKers need to compete with rich mainlanders for stuff like bread.  The mainlanders don't come here to see attractions.  They come here to buy basic necessities, because they don't trust their own products.  We as an economy has benefited a lot from the increased business, but the problem is that the spoils are only obtained by the landlords, the rich, business owners and those who work in the high end retail industry.  The general population only feel the pain. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 08:18:33 AM
Quote from: Valmy on April 15, 2015, 08:04:09 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 14, 2015, 07:21:38 PM
I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade. 

You should only vote for those who agree to support free trade.

Those who support free trade the most are already in power :contract:  The opposition wants increased protectionism, in essence.  But under HK's political system, the business tycoons will always be in power and those who want protectionism can never share power no matter how popular they are.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 15, 2015, 08:44:04 AM
Isn't all that stuff imported anyway?  Why can't you just import more?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 09:18:04 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 15, 2015, 08:44:04 AM
Isn't all that stuff imported anyway?  Why can't you just import more?

It is the businesses charging whatever they can.  Basically, a working class family making 20k a year needs to compete with rich mainlanders with tens of millions in cash to buy milk powder.  The mainlanders will always outbid the little guys.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 15, 2015, 09:22:50 AM
Also it is a matter of square footage. You can only store so much milk powder inside urban establishments.

Damn milk powder sounds gross though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 15, 2015, 09:26:09 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 09:18:04 AM
It is the businesses charging whatever they can.  Basically, a working class family making 20k a year needs to compete with rich mainlanders with tens of millions in cash to buy milk powder.  The mainlanders will always outbid the little guys.

Which makes sense if everyone is bidding for the last container of milk powder left in the world.  Not so much if more can be produced and imported.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 09:28:23 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 15, 2015, 09:26:09 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 09:18:04 AM
It is the businesses charging whatever they can.  Basically, a working class family making 20k a year needs to compete with rich mainlanders with tens of millions in cash to buy milk powder.  The mainlanders will always outbid the little guys.

Which makes sense if everyone is bidding for the last container of milk powder left in the world.  Not so much if more can be produced and imported.

Problem is we are one of the few places in the world where tourists vastly outnumber locals.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 09:30:16 AM
Oh and if the product is flats, they can't be produced quickly enough.  And the consequence is locals don't have places to sleep.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 15, 2015, 09:31:48 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 09:28:23 AM
Problem is we are one of the few places in the world where tourists vastly outnumber locals.

A gigantic problem if you all are bidding for one milk powder container.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 15, 2015, 02:21:54 PM
Mono's political quietism ends as he joins HKIP.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 05:41:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 15, 2015, 02:21:54 PM
Mono's political quietism ends as he joins HKIP.

I am saying, yes the mainland tourists have brought tons of pain, but we still need more of them because that will bring our GDP up  :P

I simply explained why the majority of the population hate them.  I don't agree with them  :sleep:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 15, 2015, 05:51:16 PM
Wait you like having to pay more for your powdered milk?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 05:56:16 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 15, 2015, 05:51:16 PM
Wait you like having to pay more for your powdered milk?

I don't.  But it is not about whether I like it or not.  It is about free trade and GDP.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 16, 2015, 05:32:58 PM
One of the things I deal with at work has to do with tourists.  School buses.  There are no designated school buses in Hong Kong.  There are plenty of charter bus companies.  Guess what, they all want to do business with the tourists because they pay more than local parents, schools and students.  So the parents complain to us that nobody wants to bid for the school contracts to take their kids to school and back.  They all prefer to take the tourists to shops where the mainlanders will be coerced to buy crap.  Afterwards the tourist guides, bus drivers, shop staff etc will all take a cut in kickbacks.  The supply of school buses cannot be increased because HK is already such a small place and road space is very limited.  So Transport won't issue any more permits for charter buses.  That's a fixed number and locals can't compete with tourists.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 17, 2015, 02:08:24 AM
Appears? Fuck the AP, they can rot in hell with the BBC and other cowards of their ilk.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/17/gao-yu-and-document-no-9-china-jails-journalist-for-leaking-state-secrets

Quote
Gao Yu and Document No 9: China jails journalist for leaking state secrets
Guilty verdict and seven-year sentence appears to confirm formal Communist party policy on curbing press freedoms and civil society

Associated Press in Beijing

Friday 17 April 2015 04.12 BST  Last modified on Friday 17 April 2015 08.04 BST 

A Beijing court has sentenced a veteran Chinese journalist to seven years in prison after convicting her of leaking a document detailing the Communist party leadership's resolve to aggressively target civil society and press freedom as a threat to its monopoly on power.

The document that Gao Yu, 71, was convicted of leaking, deemed a state secret, underpins a clampdown under the administration of the Communist party leader, Xi Jinping.

The court verdict appears to confirm the authenticity of the leaked document, which had been reported since June 2013 but was never discussed openly by the leadership. It verifies widely held assumptions about Xi's distrust of any social organisation outside party control, recently manifested in the more-than month-long detentions of five women's rights activists held after planning to start a public awareness campaign about sexual harassment.

Gao had denied the charges, which could have carried a life sentence. Her lawyer Mo Shaoping said she was convicted of leaking state secrets by giving the strategy paper, known as Document No 9, to an overseas media group. The document argued for aggressive curbs on the spread of western democracy, universal values, civil society and press freedom, which the party considers a threat to its rule.

Another of Gao's lawyers, Shang Baojun, said Gao did not speak during the verdict and sentencing, but told her brother, Gao Wei, that she could not accept the result. "We will definitely appeal," Shang said.

Speaking to the Associated Press, Gao Wei said his sister appeared thinner and frailer than before her detention a year ago.

The court seemed to disregard Gao Yu's defence lawyers but heard only the prosecution, Gao Wei said, a common complaint in such cases where the outcome is usually determined before the court meets. "I'm very angry and concerned for my sister," Gao Wei said.

Police patrolled the perimeter of Beijing's No 3 intermediate court where the verdict was delivered. Journalists and foreign diplomats gathered at the court but were denied entry to the hearing.

"We're obviously disappointed with the verdict," said the US embassy first secretary, Dan Biers.

Gao, who wrote about politics, economics and social issues for media in Hong Kong and overseas, has already served time in prison on state secrets charges more than two decades ago.

In a statement, human rights watchdog Amnesty International said Gao was the victim of a vaguely worded and arbitrary state secrets law that is often used against activists to quell freedom of expression.

"This deplorable sentence against Gao Yu is nothing more than blatant political persecution by the Chinese authorities," William Nee, the group's China researcher, said in the statement.

The Hong Kong magazine to which Gao is alleged to have leaked the document, Minjing Monthly, issued a statement reiterating its contention that the charges against Gao were false. The magazine first reported on the document in August 2013.

The magazine suggested the document already had been circulated at the time when Gao is alleged to have leaked it. It also said the information contained neither military nor economic secrets, but was merely a "correct guidance" on ideological matters.

"This unjust judgment of an outstanding Chinese journalist utterly destroys Xi Jinping's commitment to 'rule according to law'," the magazine said.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on April 17, 2015, 10:44:16 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 05:56:16 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 15, 2015, 05:51:16 PM
Wait you like having to pay more for your powdered milk?

I don't.  But it is not about whether I like it or not.  It is about free trade and GDP.

I wouldn't mind them so much either if I had a fully paid flat and a senior civil servant job.   :P

When I lived in Shenzhen for 3 years I would often come to Hong Kong, and the throngs of mainland shoppers would be a common sight at the border, on the subway and at particular shopping venues.  I can see why a lot of HKers do not like them.  There are the wealthy ones which pose their own sets of problems, but the most noticeable (at least to my eyes) are the throngs of poorly mannered, uneducated bumpkins that descend upon the city day in and day out, some of them multiple times in one day.   
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 17, 2015, 11:08:37 AM
How come they trust HK products but not Chinese products?- are they not the same?
Can't Chinese shops just start importing from the same place as the HK shops?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2015, 11:18:10 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 17, 2015, 11:08:37 AM
How come they trust HK products but not Chinese products?- are they not the same?
Can't Chinese shops just start importing from the same place as the HK shops?

A mainland consumer couldn't be sure they are not knock offs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on April 17, 2015, 12:02:52 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 16, 2015, 05:32:58 PM
Afterwards the tourist guides, bus drivers, shop staff etc will all take a cut in kickbacks. 

I can understand why the shop owners pay the guides and drivers a gratuity for bringing in the hordes of mainlanders to their shops.  But why are they paying a "kickback" to their own staff?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 17, 2015, 06:17:35 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 17, 2015, 12:02:52 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 16, 2015, 05:32:58 PM
Afterwards the tourist guides, bus drivers, shop staff etc will all take a cut in kickbacks. 

I can understand why the shop owners pay the guides and drivers a gratuity for bringing in the hordes of mainlanders to their shops.  But why are they paying a "kickback" to their own staff?

Because I used the wrong word  :blush:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 17, 2015, 06:25:38 PM
Quote from: Camerus on April 17, 2015, 10:44:16 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 15, 2015, 05:56:16 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 15, 2015, 05:51:16 PM
Wait you like having to pay more for your powdered milk?

I don't.  But it is not about whether I like it or not.  It is about free trade and GDP.

I wouldn't mind them so much either if I had a fully paid flat and a senior civil servant job.   :P

When I lived in Shenzhen for 3 years I would often come to Hong Kong, and the throngs of mainland shoppers would be a common sight at the border, on the subway and at particular shopping venues.  I can see why a lot of HKers do not like them.  There are the wealthy ones which pose their own sets of problems, but the most noticeable (at least to my eyes) are the throngs of poorly mannered, uneducated bumpkins that descend upon the city day in and day out, some of them multiple times in one day.   

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi62.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fh101%2FMonoriu%2Fp_zpsc3moc8uc.jpg&hash=2faef3e3955ab0a0c1702cf2366b8d7baa9d7891) (http://s62.photobucket.com/user/Monoriu/media/p_zpsc3moc8uc.jpg.html)

I don't think tourist is the right word to describe them.  They are professional full time businessmen involved in a huge logistical operation that transports HK goods to the mainland with hundreds of thousands of people.  The reason they can't use containers and ships is because of mainland tariffs and customs.  This is now a very common sight in HK.  They leave the trash on the ground, obstruct pedestrian pavements, are noisy, drive up prices of transport and food, etc.  I am all for more business, but the pain for the locals is very real.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 17, 2015, 06:29:45 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 17, 2015, 11:08:37 AM
How come they trust HK products but not Chinese products?- are they not the same?
Can't Chinese shops just start importing from the same place as the HK shops?

No they aren't the same.  International suppliers often have different product lines for mainland and HK, with the HK product line being superior in quality.  There is also the matter of mainland customs and tariffs.  If you import stuff directly to the mainland, you'll need to pay heavy tariff.  HK is a free port and there are no such restrictions.  HK also uses HK currency which is considered cheaper when compared with RMB.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 17, 2015, 06:33:48 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi62.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fh101%2FMonoriu%2F0417-00174-001b1_zpsz0vaou0j.jpg&hash=2dce7bf79d3ed580551c33db27355afcbc9d5275) (http://s62.photobucket.com/user/Monoriu/media/0417-00174-001b1_zpsz0vaou0j.jpg.html)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 17, 2015, 06:38:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2015, 11:18:10 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 17, 2015, 11:08:37 AM
How come they trust HK products but not Chinese products?- are they not the same?
Can't Chinese shops just start importing from the same place as the HK shops?

A mainland consumer couldn't be sure they are not knock offs.

Thing is, if you buy knock offs on the mainland, then you complain about it, and the knock offs happen to be produced by some senior official (which is most of the time), you go to jail.  If you buy knock offs in HK, and you complain about it, the media can report it, the government will arrest the sellers and producers of the knockoffs, and you may or may not get a refund.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on April 17, 2015, 06:50:34 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 17, 2015, 06:29:45 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 17, 2015, 11:08:37 AM
How come they trust HK products but not Chinese products?- are they not the same?
Can't Chinese shops just start importing from the same place as the HK shops?

No they aren't the same.  International suppliers often have different product lines for mainland and HK, with the HK product line being superior in quality.  There is also the matter of mainland customs and tariffs.  If you import stuff directly to the mainland, you'll need to pay heavy tariff.  HK is a free port and there are no such restrictions.  HK also uses HK currency which is considered cheaper when compared with RMB.

Yeah, I'd estimate international goods in mainland China are a good 20%-40% more expensive than if purchased in HK... plus you run the risk that it is a fake.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 17, 2015, 08:44:24 PM
Basically, there is nobody I know who can stand the mainland tourists.  I am the only person who don't mind.  Everybody, even the most pro-mainland and pro-government people, scream that the government should put a stop to it.  If HK were a real democracy, it would have been done eons ago.  Only the unelected pro-business administration could have held off the tsunami of public opinion for as long as they did.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 06, 2015, 02:20:27 PM
I have absolutely no idea about these stereotypes but I laugh nonetheless.
South Chinese girls vs North Chinese girls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbiIu_EzuWk
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 06, 2015, 02:27:43 PM
 :hmm:

So basically
South China Girl = Bridget Jones
North China Girl = Ke$ha

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 02:30:21 PM
North Girl = juicehead psychopath.

South Girl = weenie.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 06, 2015, 02:33:10 PM
That's what I said. :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 02:33:58 PM
I don't know who Kei#ha is .
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 06, 2015, 02:36:34 PM
She sings about brushing her teeth with Jack Daniels.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 02:37:06 PM
Where's the psychopath part?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 06, 2015, 02:40:55 PM
Eh, I think if you knew who she was you could easily imagine her cutting a bitch.  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 06, 2015, 02:52:56 PM
South Chinese Girl: What Texan Women pretend to be
North Chinese Girl: What Texan Women actually are
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 02:54:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 06, 2015, 02:52:56 PM
South Chinese Girl: What Texan Women pretend to be
North Chinese Girl: What Texan Women actually are

heh
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on May 06, 2015, 05:59:34 PM
It does fit common Chinese stereotypes  :lol:

Northern girls (and men) also tend to be bigger and taller  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 06, 2015, 06:03:08 PM
North China girl seems a lot more fun :mellow:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 06, 2015, 06:20:29 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 06, 2015, 06:03:08 PM
North China girl seems a lot more fun :mellow:

Yes indeed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 06:23:05 PM
I'm all over the weenie.  Bet she's a screamer.  Plus she's cuter.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 07, 2015, 12:57:56 AM
Yes. The southerner wins on all counts except the cooking.

Though of the Chinese girls I know right now, one is southern and the other northern.... And both behave like the northern one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on May 07, 2015, 01:18:40 AM
I like Ke$ha.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on May 07, 2015, 01:25:03 AM
Now that I think about it, mine feels very much like the northern one.  The cooking part is spot on and happens in disturbing frequencies  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 07, 2015, 12:23:14 PM
http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/05/the-chinese-art-of-the-crowd/392531/

And now for something of a more Riefenstahl tinge :P

(More pictures, and explanations at the link)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fassets%2Fmedia%2Fimg%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F05%2Fthe-chinese-art-of-the-crowd%2Fc34_452881998%2Fmain_1500.jpg&hash=c902558c97e50f04089ffefce4a3cd534babde87)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fassets%2Fmedia%2Fimg%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F05%2Fthe-chinese-art-of-the-crowd%2Fc32_RTXP5DC%2Fmain_1500.jpg&hash=2875708d5e8424f3ffa2dd956ef4af4bc3da0afc)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fassets%2Fmedia%2Fimg%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F05%2Fthe-chinese-art-of-the-crowd%2Fc27_RTR48FBI%2Fmain_1500.jpg&hash=7a9085d65b72b3843ee975b443e8401d6e353aa5)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fassets%2Fmedia%2Fimg%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F05%2Fthe-chinese-art-of-the-crowd%2Fc25_91300454%2Fmain_1500.jpg&hash=46c6312748c57a1a10004362b9b5532e9ce1773f)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fassets%2Fmedia%2Fimg%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F05%2Fthe-chinese-art-of-the-crowd%2Fc20_RTXP10F%2Fmain_1500.jpg&hash=2e362b1a904018fd3c9560c7d76c372fee57e010)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fassets%2Fmedia%2Fimg%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F05%2Fthe-chinese-art-of-the-crowd%2Fc16_RTR28FCA%2Fmain_1500.jpg&hash=7a601d2858009f508c9d55d3d57951b7ec55d640)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.theatlantic.com%2Fassets%2Fmedia%2Fimg%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F05%2Fthe-chinese-art-of-the-crowd%2Fc12_RTR44R09%2Fmain_1500.jpg&hash=8e9ef504b0f113bc87f1eb032caa5906116da7fa)

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Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 07, 2015, 12:28:03 PM
Now if they could only line up like that when they got off their tour buses.  :glare:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 07, 2015, 12:39:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 07, 2015, 12:28:03 PM
Now if they could only line up like that when they got off their tour buses.  :glare:
:lol:
:yes:

Damn qing dynasty turning the Chinese forever off queues <_<
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on June 09, 2015, 08:20:10 PM
Bringing back some good 'ol Soviet/Frankenstein science ideas...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/chinese-surgeon-who-has-performed-1000-head-transplants-on-mice-wants-to-create-the-first-headtransplanted-monkey-that-can-live-at-least-for-a-little-while-10304115.html

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QuoteChinese surgeon who has performed 1,000 head transplants on mice wants to create the first head-transplanted monkey that can live 'at least for a little while'

Critics have branded his work 'ridiculous'


Christopher Hooton

Monday, 8 June 2015
Not content with having created over 1,000 hybrid mice with different heads, some a different colour from their bodies, controversial doctor Xiaoping Ren next wants to perform pioneering transplants on primates.

Shadowing him during a 10-hour operation, the Wall Street Journal witnessed a mouse with a new head move and breathe on its own following the procedure, even opening its eyes and drinking.

That being said, none of Dr Ren's transplanted mice have as yet lived longer than a few minutes.

He claims to be perfecting the procedure however, using tiny tubes to carry oxygenated blood from the brains to their new bodies, and will next try it out on primates (there are already plans for it up on his wall).

According to WSJ, he is hoping the primates will live, 'at least for a little while.'

Dr Ren claims his work isn't frivolous, likened it to previous concerns about now more commonplace hand transplants, and claimed his research might one day be able to help human patients who have healthy heads but have suffered spinal-cord injuries or muscle-wasting diseases.

Head transplants are hugely controversial however, raising ethical concerns and challenging the very idea of consciousness.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on June 09, 2015, 08:23:43 PM
Here's the original WSJ story (it didn't make me subscribe)...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/surgerys-far-frontier-head-transplants-1433525830
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 10, 2015, 02:27:26 AM
Kuala Lumpur, aye chihuahua, woah woah woah!

http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-wakes-up-to-china-1433892739
Quote
Malaysia Wakes Up to China

Kuala Lumpur shows new backbone against Beijing's incursions.
June 9, 2015 7:32 p.m. ET

0 COMMENTS 
 
The Journal got the scoop Monday that the Malaysian government will loudly protest the Chinese coast guard's incursions into its exclusive economic zone. National Security Minister Shahidan Kassim said in an interview that Prime Minister  Najib Razak will raise the issue personally with Chinese President  Xi Jinping.

The Malaysians are upset that a Chinese coast-guard ship is anchored in the waters around the Luconia Shoals within their exclusive economic zone. The state-owned company Petronas has active gas wells nearby.

Kuala Lumpur played down such provocations in the past; Chinese ships have frequented the area for at least two years, and Malaysia made pro forma protests. The Chinese disrupted oil survey work nearby in August 2012 and January 2013. Yet Malaysia took a low-key approach when Beijing's ally Cambodia shut down discussion of the South China Sea disputes at regional summits in 2012.

Malaysia has changed its attitude over the past year as China started reclaiming land for military bases on the disputed shoals and rocks it controls. Last year Kuala Lumpur offered to let the U.S. fly P-8 surveillance planes from Borneo airbases. At the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore at the end of May, Defense Minister  Hishammuddin Hussein warned that the dispute could "escalate into one of the deadliest conflicts of our time." Two weeks ago Mr. Najib was in Tokyo to discuss maritime defense-technology transfer with Prime Minister  Shinzo Abe.

The Malaysians used to chastise Vietnam and the Philippines for being too confrontational toward China and called for diplomatic solutions. But it didn't do them much good. The Chinese military is using the same tactics of creeping assertiveness in the Luconia Shoals that it employed in 2012 to take Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines. Beijing's aggressive behavior has created such fear among Southeast Asian nations that a new unity may be emerging.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 10, 2015, 02:36:56 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 10, 2015, 02:27:26 AM
Kuala Lumpur, aye chihuahua, woah woah woah!


Malaysia recently refused a HK pro-democracy legislator and student leader from entering its borders to participate in a seminar about 1989 Tian An Men, citing concerns about the diplomatic relationship with China. 

QuoteOccupy student leader Joshua Wong Chi-fung was denied entry into Malaysia yesterday with the country's police chief later saying they did not want him to jeopardise their ties with China.

The 18-year-old will miss four seminars at which he was to talk about last year's pro-democracy movement and the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, after government officers at Penang International Airport ordered him to return to Hong Kong.

Wong, convenor of the student group Scholarism, said he "deeply regretted" the Malaysian government's decision to reject him, which he said was "totally unexpected".

But Malaysia's Inspector-General of Police Abu Bakar Khalid said the purpose of Wong's visit was to explain how he had organised demonstrations in Hong Kong.

"We were afraid that what he was going to speak about would harm our security," he said.

"He was also going to speak about China. We know his anti-Chinese speeches. We do not want him to jeopardise our ties with China."

Malaysian authorities have blocked activists before - in 2012, they deported six Chinese Uygurs who had sought asylum back to the mainland, and the following year Australian politician Nick Xenophon was denied entry on national security grounds after he took part in an anti-government rally earlier.

In November, a group of Occupy leaders were denied entry into the mainland during the protests that lasted for 79 days.

"I understand the mainland [Chinese] government may see me as a sensitive person, but I am not there to fight for universal suffrage in Malaysia. I'm not there to plant a revolution," Wong said after returning to Chek Lap Kok airport.

The Malaysian consulate in Hong Kong confirmed Wong was denied entry.

"Based on records available to me, the named subject is listed as 'NTL' - not allowed to land," said Wang Syaifuldin, the consulate's immigration attaché.

Hong Kong's Security Bureau said by way of "international practice" it respected the decisions of immigration authorities of other countries in clearing travellers for entry based on their laws. Those authorities "had no duty" to report to the host country if a foreigner was rejected.

Wong was invited to attend four talks this week in Penang, Ipoh, Johor and Kuala Lumpur, organised by a group called the Working Committee for the 26th Anniversary Commemoration of June 4 Incident in Malaysia.

He was to be accompanied by radical lawmaker "Long Hair" Leung Kwok-hung at a seminar in the national capital on Friday. Leung said he would go to the city as scheduled.

Event organisers called Wong's rejection "political suppression".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 10, 2015, 04:45:29 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 10, 2015, 02:36:56 AM
Malaysia recently refused a HK pro-democracy legislator and student leader from entering its borders to participate in a seminar about 1989 Tian An Men, citing concerns about the diplomatic relationship with China.

Quote
Australian politician Nick Xenophon was denied entry on national security grounds after he took part in an anti-government rally earlier.

I am of course quoting a famed news anchor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KYS6xeoBnc

Awesome name for that Australian.

Don't really get the story though. He participated in an anti-government rally, I'm assuming against the Australian government? Is he an actually elected member of the opposition in parliament? If so, barring him from the country likely offended the Australian government.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on June 10, 2015, 08:48:28 PM
Quote from: Tyr on May 06, 2015, 02:20:27 PM
I have absolutely no idea about these stereotypes but I laugh nonetheless.
South Chinese girls vs North Chinese girls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbiIu_EzuWk

:lol:
Most of my coworkers in Shanghai fit the southern stereotype.
My wife is southern, most of those fit.
Cooking is the exception. She cooks enough to feed an army. Spicy, too :mmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 10, 2015, 08:58:18 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on June 10, 2015, 08:48:28 PM
Quote from: Tyr on May 06, 2015, 02:20:27 PM
I have absolutely no idea about these stereotypes but I laugh nonetheless.
South Chinese girls vs North Chinese girls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbiIu_EzuWk

:lol:
Most of my coworkers in Shanghai fit the southern stereotype.
My wife is southern, most of those fit.
Cooking is the exception. She cooks enough to feed an army. Spicy, too :mmm:

The Yangzi river is usually considered the divider between north and south.  Shanghai is located right at the mouth of the river.  It is on the northern side, but that is essentially meaningless as it sits right next to the river, so it is hard to say if it is north or south. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on June 11, 2015, 11:01:07 PM
 :hmm: :hmm: :hmm:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-11/china-security-chief-s-secret-trial-exposes-limits-of-xi-s-power

QuoteChina Security Head's Secret Trial Shows Limits of Xi's Push

by Ting Shi and Brendan Scott
June 12, 2015 — 1:00 AM JST
Updated on June 12, 2015 — 12:30 PM JST

The conviction of China's former security chief in a secret one-day trial laid bare the limits of President Xi Jinping's campaign against corruption and undercut his pledge to enforce the rule of law.

After suggesting as recently as March that at least part of Zhou Yongkang's hearing would be public, authorities announced Thursday he'd been sentenced to life in prison after closed-door proceedings last month in Tianjin. Zhou pleaded guilty to three charges including bribery, abuse of power and leaking state secrets, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

The prosecution of one of China's most powerful politicians represented a once-in-a-generation chance for the Communist Party to showcase the development of its legal system. In the end, Xi chose the safer path of a secret trial over the risk of giving Zhou, 72, a public platform to air the party's dirty laundry.




"He knows too much," said Zhang Lifan, a Beijing-based historian and former researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "Xi is dealing with someone who has extensive and deep connections in a corrupt system, the exposure of which would shake the entire structure. This puts on display the strength of the resistance against Xi's anti-corruption campaign."

Zhou, who until 2012 oversaw China's vast security apparatus, including police, prosecutors and the courts, is the highest-level official to face corruption charges in the party's history. He held sway over a network of proteges and former aides scattered across the oil industry, the state broadcaster and the southwestern Sichuan province.

Standing Committee

He served on the Communist Party's ruling Standing Committee with Xi before he retired and the latter was elevated to general secretary in 2012. Zhou is the first Standing Committee member ever to be charged with corruption.

The fact that such a high-ranking official was taken down, "shows the Communist Party's commitment to the rule of law," Xinhua said.

Zhou also ordered unauthorized spying on top leaders including Xi, two people familiar with the investigation of him have said previously.

Xi's detention of a former top Zhou aide just weeks after taking power kicked off an anti-graft campaign that would ensnare more than 100,000 "tigers" and "flies" -- high and lower-ranking cadres. The president put legal reforms at the top of his agenda at the party's fourth plenum last year, seeking to institutionalize the anti-corruption push and solidify party rule.

State Secrets

"It makes those of us who argue that the fourth plenum and rule of law is an ongoing process look out of step," said David Zweig, professor of political science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. "It suggests it's two steps forward and one step back."

Zhou's trial was closed because he faced charges of disclosing state secrets, Xinhua said. Supreme Court President Zhou Qiang was cited in March as saying Zhou's hearing would be open "in accordance with the law," suggesting some areas would be public.

"This demonstrates that there is no rule of law nor transparency in Xi's China," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, director of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University. "It also underscores that the Zhou trial has been a 100 percent political trial in which Chinese citizens and outside observers are reduced to believing the few little drops of information that the propaganda machine has deigned to offer."

White Hair

Xinhua reported that Zhou leaked six secret documents, without "serious consequences," to Cao Yongzheng, a fortune teller and tycoon. State television yesterday broadcast images of Zhou, his once jet-black hair now snowy white, admitting his guilt and saying he wouldn't appeal.

"The handling of my case in accordance with party rules and the law reflects the authorities' determination to govern the party strictly and advance the rule of law," Zhou said.

Zhou's secret trial contrasts with the decision to release live transcripts from the 2013 graft trial of Zhou's ally, disgraced former Politburo member Bo Xilai.

"Bo Xilai revealed what could go wrong in a show trial," said Rosita Dellios, an associate international relations professor at Bond University on Australia's Gold Coast.

During his hearing Bo told the court he received orders from Zhou's central committee of political and legal affairs on how to handle the February 2012 defection of Bo's one-time police chief to the U.S. consulate in Chengdu, Sichuan.

More awkward moments could've unfolded if Zhou's trial was public, said Zhang, the Beijing-based historian. Xi couldn't afford having Zhou drag in more senior officials, further undermining the party after an anti-corruption campaign that has struck the upper echelons of power.

"Here's a strong indication that Xi's big-tiger hunting campaign is drawing to a close," Zhang said.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 20, 2016, 12:35:31 PM
China Econ Post 1:

Talking the Talk:

QuoteAt the outset of his presidency, Xi Jinping billed himself as a transformative leader in the mould of Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese strongman who set the country's economic rise in motion in the 1980s. Now Mr Xi is turning to two more political giants of that decade — Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher — for inspiration as he seeks a "supply side" revolution for China's economy

Like the late US president and UK prime minister before them, Mr Xi and his premier, Li Keqiang, want to reduce taxes and red tape for businesses as they seek to cushion the decline of heavy industry with the rise of the consumer and service sectors

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6b1c30f8-be77-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html#ixzz3xo5luuT4

BUT not walking the walk:

QuoteChinese President Xi Jinping unexpectedly announced in September that he would cut troop numbers by 300,000, or some 13 percent of the world's biggest military, currently 2.3-million strong.
. . .
The official People's Liberation Army Daily, in a story on Tuesday, said the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and Civil Affairs Ministry had ordered state-owned firms to help find jobs for demobbed troops.

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKBN0UC08C20151229
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 20, 2016, 02:06:50 PM
China Econ Post 2:

From the China law blog at http://www.chinalawblog.com/2016/01/getting-money-out-of-china-what-the-heck-is-happening.html
(Great blog BTW)

QuoteRegular readers of our blog probably know that our basic mantra about getting money out of China is that if you have consistently follow all of China's laws, it ought to be no problem. Not true lately.

In the last week or so, our China lawyers have probably received more "money problem" calls than in the year before that. And unlike most of these sorts of calls, the problems are brand new to us.

. . .  if there is a common theme, it is that China banks seem to be doing whatever they can to avoid paying anyone in dollars. We are hearing the following:

1. Chinese investors that have secured all necessary approvals to invest in American companies are not being allowed to actually make that investment. I mentioned this to a China attorney friend who says he has been hearing the same thing. Never heard this one until this month.

2. Chinese citizens who are supposed to be allowed to send up to $50,000 a year out of China, pretty much on questions asked, are not getting that money sent. I feel like every realtor in the United States has called us on this one. The Wall Street Journal wrote on this yesterday. Never heard this one until this month

. . . .etc.

So Donald Trump is right that China is manipulating its currency.  But he is wrong that is undervalued by "15% to 40%.". It isn't undervalued at all.  It is OVER-valued.   The government is defending the yuan by the kinds of shadow capital controls alluded to in the quoted blog post. 

If the PRC government released the capital controls and let the Yuan free float down a likely consequence would be chaos in other Asian markets and the return of a big current account surplus (as the flip side to a massive capital outflow) -- right in the middle of US presidential election campaign with heavy populist undertones.  But keeping the currency high just adds more headwind to China's deteriorating macro position.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on January 20, 2016, 02:15:07 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 20, 2016, 02:06:50 PM
China Econ Post 2:

From the China law blog at http://www.chinalawblog.com/2016/01/getting-money-out-of-china-what-the-heck-is-happening.html
(Great blog BTW)

QuoteRegular readers of our blog probably know that our basic mantra about getting money out of China is that if you have consistently follow all of China's laws, it ought to be no problem. Not true lately.

In the last week or so, our China lawyers have probably received more "money problem" calls than in the year before that. And unlike most of these sorts of calls, the problems are brand new to us.

. . .  if there is a common theme, it is that China banks seem to be doing whatever they can to avoid paying anyone in dollars. We are hearing the following:

1. Chinese investors that have secured all necessary approvals to invest in American companies are not being allowed to actually make that investment. I mentioned this to a China attorney friend who says he has been hearing the same thing. Never heard this one until this month.

2. Chinese citizens who are supposed to be allowed to send up to $50,000 a year out of China, pretty much on questions asked, are not getting that money sent. I feel like every realtor in the United States has called us on this one. The Wall Street Journal wrote on this yesterday. Never heard this one until this month

. . . .etc.

So Donald Trump is right that China is manipulating its currency.  But he is wrong that is undervalued by "15% to 40%.". It isn't undervalued at all.  It is OVER-valued.   The government is defending the yuan by the kinds of shadow capital controls alluded to in the quoted blog post. 

If the PRC government released the capital controls and let the Yuan free float down a likely consequence would be chaos in other Asian markets and the return of a big current account surplus (as the flip side to a massive capital outflow) -- right in the middle of US presidential election campaign with heavy populist undertones.  But keeping the currency high just adds more headwind to China's deteriorating macro position.


Barack Obama must be a doozy a ChiCom agent to warrant that amount of sacrifice.  :) 


More seriously, JR why not spin this out into a new 2016 global economy thread?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 20, 2016, 04:12:04 PM
One of the things I've heard about is Chinese citizens putting up a pile of yuan as collateral in Hong Kong banks to get loans to buy US real estate.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 20, 2016, 04:21:40 PM
That kind of sucks :(

My in-laws are back in China to sell their place so they can buy something in Vancouver. That could put a stop to that.

On the upside, we'll get a chance to see whether Chinese cash really is the driving force behind the Vancouver property prices.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 20, 2016, 04:21:57 PM
In light of the recent bad economic news from Europe and Japan too..... doom?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 20, 2016, 04:23:07 PM
BTW, just noticed the Northern vs Southern girlfriend thing... seems pretty accurate (as broad stereotypes go), except the cooking one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on May 03, 2016, 09:26:15 AM
PLA recruiting video.  Better than expected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTdOnDSPZ_Q
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on May 03, 2016, 10:25:54 AM
Quote from: derspiess on May 03, 2016, 09:26:15 AM
PLA recruiting video.  Better than expected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTdOnDSPZ_Q

A little surprised that they need to make this.  Government jobs are very sought after in China.  Granted, this is the army, so it is no where as good as the civil service jobs.  But still. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 03, 2016, 12:06:28 PM
The military is rarely a popular career option.

'Come live in a barracks where we order you to!'
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on September 27, 2016, 08:38:10 PM
Ahsopalling.

But seriously...I'm somewhat surprised China has let the game play as long as it has.  Probably just to avoid market/financial shock, as there was no upside in pushing too hard, too fast.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/an-era-in-hong-kong-is-ending-thanks-to-chinas-tight-embrace-1474647072
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 27, 2016, 08:41:40 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 03, 2016, 12:06:28 PM
The military is rarely a popular career option.

'Come live in a barracks where we order you to!'

It's not that bad in China, I don't think - but you have to pay for promotion which kind of sucks.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on September 27, 2016, 08:45:35 PM
Big deal, so did Wellington.  With Party membership comes Party privilege!

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 27, 2016, 08:48:24 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on September 27, 2016, 08:45:35 PM
Big deal, so did Wellington.  With Party membership comes Party privilege!

The party membership thing is a separate track, this is straight up "pay RMB 200,000 or do not pass". While that may have worked for Wellington - and the PRC equivalents - it may not be as attractive for the hoi polloi. Hence the need for recruitment videos (and it's probably also a good way to funnel some gov't money to the right production companies).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Ed Anger on September 27, 2016, 08:49:28 PM
I offer 10 dollars for the post of Magister Militum.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 28, 2016, 12:42:56 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 27, 2016, 08:49:28 PM
I offer 10 dollars for the post of Magister Militum.

For $10 you can get something by post from Magister Militum, though I think shipping will be extra: http://www.magistermilitum.com/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: FunkMonk on June 07, 2017, 12:17:21 PM
Good news, China watchers. The DoD just released this year's China Military Power Report.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Publications/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on August 09, 2017, 09:52:52 AM
Brilliant idea!  :P
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-40851224 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-40851224)

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/15813/production/_97238088_cggkbvmfhi-alsanaac6wigjacu855.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 09, 2017, 10:21:32 AM
Has Cal gone into the restaurant business?  :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 03, 2018, 04:39:42 PM
Apparently Xi's newest initiative involves re-valuating the requirements for the all-important university entrance exams.

Math, science, etc are all being devalued a bit while the importance of political science is valued more.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on July 03, 2018, 06:59:28 PM
17 year old me would've loved that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on July 03, 2018, 07:01:27 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 03, 2018, 04:39:42 PM
Apparently Xi's newest initiative involves re-valuating the requirements for the all-important university entrance exams.

Math, science, etc are all being devalued a bit while the importance of political science is valued more.

And we were worried.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 03, 2018, 08:03:04 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 03, 2018, 06:59:28 PM
17 year old me would've loved that.

I'm not sure if 17 year old you would have received passing marks in Polisci in China...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: derspiess on July 03, 2018, 08:12:09 PM
17 year old Chinese me would have :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 03, 2018, 08:19:06 PM
Quote from: derspiess on July 03, 2018, 08:12:09 PM
17 year old Chinese me would have :contract:

Fair.

You know, now that I think about it, you would have made an excellent mid-level local CCP official :hug:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 03, 2018, 08:27:49 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 03, 2018, 04:39:42 PM
Apparently Xi's newest initiative involves re-valuating the requirements for the all-important university entrance exams.

Math, science, etc are all being devalued a bit while the importance of political science is valued more.

That sounds like code for (even) more essays about the wonders of Communist Party leader and the brilliance of Xi Thought.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 03, 2018, 08:32:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 03, 2018, 08:27:49 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 03, 2018, 04:39:42 PM
Apparently Xi's newest initiative involves re-valuating the requirements for the all-important university entrance exams.

Math, science, etc are all being devalued a bit while the importance of political science is valued more.

That sounds like code for (even) more essays about the wonders of Communist Party leader and the brilliance of Xi Thought.

Yeah that's my understanding. Can't let people get access to the prestigious educational opportunities if they don't  pay proper respect to the party...  :yucky:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on July 04, 2018, 01:41:17 AM
Yes. Sadly means this in practice. But it's the right idea overall. They do place way too much focus on a handful of subjects.
In China English is on the shortlist right?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on September 29, 2018, 02:20:54 AM
A story that was in the paper a while ago.

German police picked up a Romanian thief stealing baby formula from a supermarket. Nothing too unusual, but the guy slipped up and hinted that he was not working alone.

This started a larger investigation. It turned out that there was a network of thieves who were stealing small quantities of baby formula from supermarkets all over Germany. Individual quantities for each market were so small that the chains had no incentive to investigate.

The police were puzzled. Why would someone steal all this formula? Drug cartels? Nope. Turns out, the Romanian leader of the crime ring delivered to Chinese buyers who smuggled the baby formula into China where they sold it at a tidy profit. The Romanian guy alone made millions of Euros over the past years.

It seems this is still fallout from the baby formula scandal in China a few years ago, and the German product was considered the "gold standard".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on September 29, 2018, 02:23:50 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 29, 2018, 02:20:54 AM
A story that was in the paper a while ago.

German police picked up a Romanian thief stealing baby formula from a supermarket. Nothing too unusual, but the guy slipped up and hinted that he was not working alone.

This started a larger investigation. It turned out that there was a network of thieves who were stealing small quantities of baby formula from supermarkets all over Germany. Individual quantities for each market were so small that the chains had no incentive to investigate.

The police were puzzled. Why would someone steal all this formula? Drug cartels? Nope. Turns out, the Romanian leader of the crime ring delivered to Chinese buyers who smuggled the baby formula into China where they sold it at a tidy profit. The Romanian guy alone made millions of Euros over the past years.

It seems this is still fallout from the baby formula scandal in China a few years ago, and the German product was considered the "gold standard".

I don't think German baby formula is the gold standard.  Rather, any baby formula from the western world and Japan is trustworthy, whereas anything produced in China is untrustworthy. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on September 29, 2018, 03:02:52 AM
Quote from: Syt on September 29, 2018, 02:20:54 AM
A story that was in the paper a while ago.

German police picked up a Romanian thief stealing baby formula from a supermarket. Nothing too unusual, but the guy slipped up and hinted that he was not working alone.

This started a larger investigation. It turned out that there was a network of thieves who were stealing small quantities of baby formula from supermarkets all over Germany. Individual quantities for each market were so small that the chains had no incentive to investigate.


The "Romanian" thief was probably not a very skilled Gypsy.  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on September 29, 2018, 09:44:01 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 29, 2018, 03:02:52 AM
The "Romanian" thief was probably not a very skilled Gypsy.  :P

Not very skilled?

QuoteThe Romanian guy alone made millions of Euros over the past years.

How much would a skilled Gypsy have made?  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 16, 2018, 02:17:41 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/opinion/victor-mallet-china-press-freedom.html

QuoteChina's Media Crackdown Spreads to Hong Kong

Beijing expels Victor Mallet of The Financial Times in a move intended to freeze out independent voices.

Hong Kong's expulsion of a British journalist after he led a foreign correspondents' meeting with a pro-independence activist is, first and foremost, an attempt by Beijing to tamp down any dissent in the former British colony.

Hong Kong officials have not given a reason for rejecting a journalist visa for Victor Mallet, the Asia news editor for The Financial Times. China's only comment has been that Hong Kong authorities are within their right to do so. But that's the typical legalistic evasiveness of authoritarian regimes when they do something they know is hard and embarrassing to defend.

The authorities have never criticized Mr. Mallet's reporting. But he was the main spokesman for the Hong Kong Foreign Correspondents' Club in August when it hosted a talk by Andy Chan, head of a political party that called for Hong Kong's independence from China. Hong Kong and Beijing officials blasted the event in advance and subsequently banned the party.

Beijing took back control of Hong Kong from the British in 1997 after nearly a century of colonial rule, and agitation toward independence has never pleased China's leadership. Hong Kong as an "inalienable" part of China is written into the territory's Basic Law.

But Mr. Mallet did not advocate independence or endorse Mr. Chan; he moderated a talk on a critical political issue, which is what correspondents' associations do. And the bigger issue at hand is that Beijing and its supporters in the Hong Kong administration are clamping down on the freedoms granted the territory under the "one country, two systems" formula that have made it an island of prosperity and openness off the authoritarian mainland.

Expelling a foreign reporter is sadly normal on the mainland. The New York Times is among news organizations whose applications for journalist visas have been blocked, in The Times's case over reports in 2012 on the wealth accumulated by the families of Chinese leaders. But in Hong Kong, a large and lively cadre of foreign journalists has enjoyed freedom of expression, and human rights groups could not recall any expulsions.

The ouster of Mr. Mallet thus represents a serious and worrisome escalation in Beijing's campaign to crack down on any dissonant voices in Hong Kong, especially in the wake of the "Occupy Central" movement for universal suffrage that locked down parts of the city four years ago. President Xi Jinping, whose growing authoritarianism has been watched with trepidation in Hong Kong, warned on a visit to the territory last year that challenges to Beijing's authority would not be tolerated.

To the many international businesses that operate out of Hong Kong, the treatment of Mr. Mallet is in effect a threat to Hong Kong's identity and role. The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong warned in a statement on Monday that curtailing press freedoms in Hong Kong could damage its "competitiveness as a leading financial and trading center." The United States, Britain and the European Union have likewise sounded alarms. These should continue, loudly and clearly.



https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/world/asia/hong-kong-lau-siu-lai-democracy.html

QuoteHong Kong Bars Another Democracy Supporter From Running for Office

HONG KONG — The Hong Kong government on Friday disqualified a democracy advocate from running for a seat on the local legislature, the latest in a series of moves that have undermined the political power of the opposition camp in the semiautonomous Chinese city.

A local government officer told the democracy advocate, Lau Siu-lai, a community college lecturer and member of the city's Labour Party, late Friday that she was ineligible to run in a November special election.

Ms. Lau had previously been elected to the seat in 2016. But the government stripped her of the post after only a few days, disqualifying her for reading her oath of office very slowly in an act of protest. Six legislators lost their seats over protests related to their oaths, a serious blow to the democratic camp.

Hong Kong, a former British colony that returned to China in 1997, has its own local government. While half of its legislature is directly elected, efforts to expand democracy beyond that have met with little success.

The democratic camp has protested the barring of candidates and removal of elected lawmakers who have questioned Hong Kong's future as a part of China. They accuse the authorities of relying on technicalities to remove lawmakers who have won popular support.

The government has said that it must ensure legislators are sincere in their belief that Hong Kong is an "inalienable part" of China. Many of the legislators ousted after the 2016 election, including Ms. Lau, were part of a wave of young activists who took to electoral politics after the 2014 protests known as the Umbrella Movement, which sought more open local elections.

Hong Kong officials said Ms. Lau was disqualified because of a previous statement that Hong Kong residents should be allowed to choose the territory's political future, including the possibility of independence.

"The candidate cannot possibly comply with the requirements of the relevant electoral laws, since advocating or promoting 'self-determination,' or promoting independence" contradicts the declaration of fealty that candidates are required to make, the government said in a statement.

Ms. Lau, seeking to distance herself from her 2016 stances, has said she does not support Hong Kong's independence from China.

She and her party said in a statement on Friday that they "condemned the government's coarse interference in an election, ignoring a candidate's right to run for office and the voters' aspirations." They accused the government of "again and again using political methods to suppress dissent," while clearing the way for establishment politicians.

Fearing the possibility of a late disqualification after the nomination period closed, the Labour Party nominated a second candidate for the seat. Lee Cheuk-yan, a former legislator, filed on Friday as a backup candidate for Ms. Lau.

The Hong Kong government prohibited at least three pro-democracy candidates from running in a March election, including Agnes Chow, a prominent student leader during the 2014 protests. In that election the pro-democracy camp lost two seats, further weakening its declining clout in the local legislature.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 09, 2019, 12:11:42 PM
In the Hong Kong/Blizzard fallout, Reddit mods seem partially busy taking "controversial" stuff off the general front pages.

Anyways, one of the ones that were "buried" is a thread that linked to a story called "Internal Memo: ESPN Forbids Discussion Of Chinese Politics When Discussing Daryl Morey's Tweet About Chinese Politics" (story: https://deadspin.com/internal-memo-espn-forbids-discussion-of-chinese-polit-1838881032)

Anyways, the thread has a list of examples how companies accommodate China for that sweet, sweet dosh.

Thread: https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/dfc6qi/disneyowned_espn_forbids_discussion_of_chinese/
(links to the various news items are in the post at the link)

Activision Blizzard: banned player for supporting Hong Kong democracy protest. Confiscated all his winnings. Fired the 2 casters who interviewed him.

Apple: censors Taiwan flag emoji in iOS in Hong Kong

Apple (partial entry): censored Hong Kong protest map from App Store. Relented after it turned into a PR mess, now letting the app into App Store.

Vans: censors pro-HK democracy design in its shoe design competition

NBA (partial entry): rebuked Rockets manager for his pro-HK tweet, saying NBA was "extremely disappointed with Morey's inappropriate comment." Backpedalled after this turned into PR nightmare, now saying they support Morey's freedom of speech.

Disney / ESPN: forbids any mention of Chinese politics when discussing Rockets manager's pro-HK tweet. ESPN hosts castigated Morey & speculated about his sincerity, but they will not talk about what caused the tweet: China's encroachment on HK

Viacom / Paramount: censors Taiwan flag from the jacket worn by Tom Cruise in the new "Top Gun" movie

Disney / Marvel: censored Tibetan monk from "Doctor Strange" and turned him into a white woman. Per the movie's screenwriter: "if you acknowledge that Tibet is a place and that he's Tibetan, you risk alienating one billion people who think that that's bullshit".

ASICS, Calvin Klein, Coach, Fresh, Givenchy, Pocari Sweat, Valentino, Versace, Swarovski: details here

Marriott: apologized to China & changed "Taiwan" to "Taiwan, China" after China threw a hissy fit

Nike: removed all Houston Rockets products from their China webstore

Activision Blizzard: cut livestream when American University team held up pro-HK sign.

Apple: handed over iCloud data & encryption keys to China

Riot Games: censors the words "Hong Kong", forcing casters to refer to team "Hong Kong Attitude" as "HKA".

Cathay Pacific: fired employees for FB posts supporting HK protests.

Apple: minimized the seriousness of iOS exploits that enabled China to track Uyghurs, when 1M+ of them are rounded up by China in concentration camps

Google: censored pro-HK game "The Revolution of Our Times" from Google Play because it was about a "sensitive event".

Gap: apologized to China for selling T-shirts IN CANADA that didn't include Taiwan as part of China

Tiffany: removed tweet showing model covering 1 eye after China accused it of supporting HK

Marriott: fired employee who liked tweet from Tibetan group

Mercedes: apologized for quoting Dalai Lama on Instagram

American, Delta, United: deleted mention of Taiwan as a country from websites

Audi: apologized for using "incorrect map" of China that left off Taiwan

Muji: destroyed store catalogs that contain "incorrect" map of China

Zara: apologized for listing Taiwan as country

Medtronic: apologized for publishing "illegal content" that listed "Republic of China (Taiwan)" as country

Ray-Ban: changed "Taiwan" & "Hongkong" to "China Taiwan" & "China Hongkong"

Qantas, Air France, Air Canada, British Airways, Malaysia Airlines, Japan Airlines, ANA: changed "Taiwan" to "Taiwan China" on websites

TikTok: censor videos that mention Tiananmen Square, Tibetan independence, Falun Gong

Sheraton: banned Taiwan National Day event. China called event "illegal & a crime against international law"

Disney: shrank/removed non-white characters from Chinese poster of "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"

Philadelphia Sixers: ejected fans for supporting HK

Princeton: doesn't talk about the 3 Ts: Tibet, Tiananmen, Taiwan

Leica: released ad on Tiananmen protest. Apologized & distanced itself from ad

Reddit: took $150M from Tencent. Removed threads like this

Rockhampton, Queensland: censored Taiwan flag in student art project

Cisco: helped build the Great Firewall including module to persecute Falun Gong

MGM: changed Red Dawn's villain from China to N Korea to placate China

Global Blue: fired staff for calling Taiwan a country
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zoupa on October 09, 2019, 01:53:52 PM
Congrats Syt. Mono's pants are now a dairy factory. :mad:

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 09, 2019, 02:12:49 PM
One Country, One System, Double Talk
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2019, 02:14:36 PM
Most of these are either non-issues, like China being racist about its own internal advertising...I mean fuck China but hey it is their country, or marginally annoying like raising a fuss about Taiwan being a country. But it seems like they are trying to get social media companies and online communities like Blizzard and Reddit to start attacking the speech of other country's citizens and their opinions. That is unacceptable. They are certainly not alone in this.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Habbaku on October 09, 2019, 02:16:56 PM
If American companies want to do business in China, I encourage them to do so. But once they start espousing Chinese values--covertly or overtly--I am not about to purchase anything from them again. I'm happy to help them lose their American market to gain the Chinese.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 09, 2019, 02:26:52 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 03, 2018, 08:32:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 03, 2018, 08:27:49 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 03, 2018, 04:39:42 PM
Apparently Xi's newest initiative involves re-valuating the requirements for the all-important university entrance exams.

Math, science, etc are all being devalued a bit while the importance of political science is valued more.

That sounds like code for (even) more essays about the wonders of Communist Party leader and the brilliance of Xi Thought.

Yeah that's my understanding. Can't let people get access to the prestigious educational opportunities if they don't  pay proper respect to the party...  :yucky:
I don't think this is directly linked. But I've read a few interesting pieces about how the Party is starting to get a little concerned about Marxist study groups in universities.

To begin with they were like: great, the youth are engaging with ideology. Then the youth noticed that Marxist ideals don't look a great deal like Communist China and have started trying to help workers organise, support independent strikes etc.

Now the state is clamping down on the Marxist study groups :lol: :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Oexmelin on October 09, 2019, 02:45:02 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on October 09, 2019, 02:16:56 PM
If American companies want to do business in China, I encourage them to do so. But once they start espousing Chinese values--covertly or overtly--I am not about to purchase anything from them again. I'm happy to help them lose their American market to gain the Chinese.

I understand and applaud the commitment, but that will not change anything.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 09, 2019, 02:47:54 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on October 09, 2019, 02:16:56 PM
If American companies want to do business in China, I encourage them to do so. But once they start espousing Chinese values--covertly or overtly--I am not about to purchase anything from them again. I'm happy to help them lose their American market to gain the Chinese.

You're bluffing.  My guess is every US airline that flies across the Pacific does some variation of that China Taiwan thing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Habbaku on October 09, 2019, 02:49:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 09, 2019, 02:47:54 PM
You're bluffing.

:lol: Okay.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2019, 03:24:29 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 09, 2019, 02:45:02 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on October 09, 2019, 02:16:56 PM
If American companies want to do business in China, I encourage them to do so. But once they start espousing Chinese values--covertly or overtly--I am not about to purchase anything from them again. I'm happy to help them lose their American market to gain the Chinese.

I understand and applaud the commitment, but that will not change anything.

Yep. The only ones who can really do anything substantial about this are our governments.

I mean I can boycott a few companies who put the Chinese Government before our citizens but not all of them. And again it is not just the Chinese who do this, the Saudis have a lot of money in these media and tech companies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 09, 2019, 03:25:21 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 09, 2019, 02:26:52 PM
Now the state is clamping down on the Marxist study groups :lol: :(

I am reminded a bit of Putin's response to the 100th anniversary of the Russian Revolution: rebelling against the state and great leader is very bad. Look at all the bad stuff that happened.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 09, 2019, 03:27:44 PM
It would be more reasonable to boycott Chinese companies IMO.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Habbaku on October 09, 2019, 03:28:51 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 09, 2019, 03:24:29 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on October 09, 2019, 02:45:02 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on October 09, 2019, 02:16:56 PM
If American companies want to do business in China, I encourage them to do so. But once they start espousing Chinese values--covertly or overtly--I am not about to purchase anything from them again. I'm happy to help them lose their American market to gain the Chinese.

I understand and applaud the commitment, but that will not change anything.

Yep. The only ones who can really do anything substantial about this are our governments.

I mean I can boycott a few companies who put the Chinese Government before our citizens but not all of them. And again it is not just the Chinese who do this, the Saudis have a lot of money in these media and tech companies.

No disagreement there. But I can certainly easily avoid companies like Blizzard where my "loss" of their product is trivially replaced with a variety of other entertainment options.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Oexmelin on October 09, 2019, 05:05:18 PM
But the entanglements are really dense - and the variety of other entertainment options that are not enmeshed in love of Chinese money is getting quite thin. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: PDH on October 09, 2019, 06:02:58 PM
The best thing to do is to boycott companies whose products you don't like.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on October 10, 2019, 10:10:12 AM
Yes. Fuck Ferrari! Those assholes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Habbaku on October 10, 2019, 10:10:40 AM
Quote from: PDH on October 09, 2019, 06:02:58 PM
The best thing to do is to boycott companies whose products you don't like.

Done and done!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: FunkMonk on October 10, 2019, 10:10:58 AM
If only there was some sort of massive US-led international trade deal amongst Pacific countries that could counteract the PRC's bullshit.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Habbaku on October 10, 2019, 10:11:28 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on October 10, 2019, 10:10:58 AM
If only there was some sort of massive US-led international trade deal amongst Pacific countries that could counteract the PRC's bullshit.

:hmm: Sounds like a Chinese plot.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on October 10, 2019, 02:50:41 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on October 10, 2019, 10:10:58 AM
If only there was some sort of massive US-led international trade deal amongst Pacific countries that could counteract the PRC's bullshit.

:)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 11, 2019, 02:52:38 PM
ESPN recognizes China's territorial claims?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGnxDJWUYAApRCu?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 11, 2019, 03:10:00 PM
Taiwan, OK, I get it.
But the South China Sea islands stuff....that's just stupid. Even ignoring that their claim is a load of bollocks...For which other country would you draw a line in the sea like that on a map?  When do you ever see a dotty line covering the Ogasawara Islands for Japan? Never.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on October 11, 2019, 03:16:55 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 11, 2019, 03:10:00 PM
Taiwan, OK, I get it.
But the South China Sea islands stuff....that's just stupid. Even ignoring that their claim is a load of bollocks...For which other country would you draw a line in the sea like that on a map?  When do you ever see a dotty line covering the Ogasawara Islands for Japan? Never.

It appears to be a version of the Nine-Dash line, which China uses to assert sovereignty over the South China Sea.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 11, 2019, 03:21:12 PM
Disney is a big Chinese market enthusiast so that does not surprise me.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: FunkMonk on October 11, 2019, 03:22:09 PM
What is the context of that image? Why even show a map of the PRC at all? Just show their damn flag if you want a visual depiction of the PRC. Was this on American television? Don't broadcast PRC propaganda, dumbasses.

That is so stupid I'm wondering if it's even real. Is that a Photoshop?

ESPN sucks ass anyway.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 11, 2019, 03:27:21 PM
It may be related to this. https://deadspin.com/internal-memo-espn-forbids-discussion-of-chinese-polit-1838881032
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 11, 2019, 03:28:01 PM
Also: https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/highlight/2019/10/10/espn-slammed-over-china-nba-coverage-for-using-9-dash-line-map/

QuoteBEIJING: Sports network ESPN faced fresh criticism of its coverage of a row between the NBA and China after using a map that appeared to endorse the country's claims to both Taiwan and disputed territories in the South China Sea.

A now-deleted tweet by Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey last week supporting anti-government protests in Hong Kong has sparked a massive backlash in China, with a fan event cancelled and Chinese partners cutting ties with the NBA.

An ESPN broadcast on Wednesday morning in the United States showed a map of China that included both Taiwan, a self-ruled island that Beijing regards as a renegade province, and the so-called "nine-dash line," a feature used on official Chinese maps to illustrate disputed claims to vast expanses of the strategically important South China Sea.

The use of the map, which had a 10-dash version of the line, was visible in a video uploaded to YouTube by an ESPN journalist.

An ESPN broadcast earlier in the week had used a map of China that did not include those features.

China has never renounced the use of force to bring democratic Taiwan under its control. All maps published in China must show Taiwan as one of the country's provinces.

China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei all have territorial claims in the South China Sea, making it one of the biggest potential flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region.

ESPN, which has a multibillion-dollar content rights deal with NBA, had already faced strong criticism online this week after a report that its anchors had been forbidden from talking about the political side of the row.

Sports news website Deadspin published a story on Tuesday that said that an internal memo from Chuck Salituro, ESPN's senior news director, had forbidden anchors from discussing the political situation in Hong Kong, telling them to focus on the sports angle instead.

An ESPN source with knowledge of the matter said that emails to employees from Salituro had reiterated ESPN's stance that politics should only be discussed as it related to sports.

This stance has been in place for a year and a half, the source said.

ESPN did not respond to a request for comment on the use of the map.

Walt Disney Co, which owns 80% of ESPN, did not respond to requests for comment on the use of the map or the Deadspin report.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on October 11, 2019, 03:30:12 PM
This is a total prisoners dilemma issue.

China needs American companies a lot more than we actually need them, and if everyone just agreed to refuse any accomodation with their silliness, China would have to stop making those demands.

But the free market is terrible at handling prisoner dilemma because there is always someone for him their immediate best interest is to cave.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 11, 2019, 03:31:15 PM
Texas played the University of Washington fightin' Katmais back in 2015 in Men's Basketball in China and it was televised on ESPN and I swear to God the entire broadcast was just about how amazing China was, every once in a while some basketball talk might have occurred. You just kind of expect that when Disney and China are involved.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on October 11, 2019, 03:36:02 PM
Wouldn't it be neat if Trump gives up US protection for Taiwan in return for a trade deal?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 11, 2019, 03:40:21 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 11, 2019, 03:36:02 PM
Wouldn't it be neat if Trump gives up US protection for Taiwan in return for a trade deal?
Were the Taiwanese in Normandy?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 11, 2019, 03:40:30 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on October 11, 2019, 03:22:09 PM
What is the context of that image? Why even show a map of the PRC at all? Just show their damn flag if you want a visual depiction of the PRC. Was this on American television? Don't broadcast PRC propaganda, dumbasses.

That is so stupid I'm wondering if it's even real. Is that a Photoshop?

ESPN sucks ass anyway.

I was wondering the same thing.  Unless they were doing a story about travel distances for Chinese league away games.

Google gave me several stories, so not shopped.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 11, 2019, 05:12:21 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 11, 2019, 03:16:55 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 11, 2019, 03:10:00 PM
Taiwan, OK, I get it.
But the South China Sea islands stuff....that's just stupid. Even ignoring that their claim is a load of bollocks...For which other country would you draw a line in the sea like that on a map?  When do you ever see a dotty line covering the Ogasawara Islands for Japan? Never.

It appears to be a version of the Nine-Dash line, which China uses to assert sovereignty over the South China Sea.

Yes. That's what it is.
But my point is even if we assume that region of sea and everything in it is 100% without a doubt Chinese.... It's bizzare to mark it on a map like so
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on October 11, 2019, 05:14:15 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 11, 2019, 05:12:21 PM


But my point is even if we assume that region of sea and everything in it is 100% without a doubt Chinese.... It's bizzare to mark it on a map like so

The nine dash line is very common on the Mainland.  Failure to show the line is unpatriotic. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on October 11, 2019, 08:04:38 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 11, 2019, 03:40:21 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 11, 2019, 03:36:02 PM
Wouldn't it be neat if Trump gives up US protection for Taiwan in return for a trade deal?
Were the Taiwanese in Normandy?


The Koreans were, but Trump doesn't want to help them either.  Well, at least not the South Koreans.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Solmyr on October 12, 2019, 12:45:28 AM
It's kind of like in Russia it's illegal to show a map that doesn't have Crimea as part of Russia.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on October 12, 2019, 06:58:48 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 11, 2019, 03:30:12 PM
This is a total prisoners dilemma issue.

China needs American companies a lot more than we actually need them, and if everyone just agreed to refuse any accomodation with their silliness, China would have to stop making those demands.

But the free market is terrible at handling prisoner dilemma because there is always someone for him their immediate best interest is to cave.

Which is why if this issue continues American firms may need some kind of US government protection, eg language built into trade agreements that US firms can't be punished when American citizens exercise free speech while in America. Of course, that would require an enforcement mechanism, something which hasn't proved terribly effective in disputes so far - but will have to be more effective in the future for frankly a broad array of alleged abuses. And of course, it would be almost impossible to prevent individual nationalist consumers from staging boycotts.

Still, it would be much better than having individual firms at the mercy of Beijing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 14, 2019, 11:14:22 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/10/us/hong-kong-washington-wizards-game-trnd/index.html

QuotePro-Hong Kong signs were confiscated at the Washington Wizards game

(CNN)Several fans standing with a sign reading "Free Hong Kong" and "Google: Uyghurs" had them confiscated prior to a game between the Washington Wizards and the Guangzhou Loong Lions at the Capital One Arena in Washington, DC, Wednesday night.

The incidents were posted on Twitter and detail two separate interactions with arena officials who can be heard telling the group of fans "no political signs."

Scott Hall, a spokesman for the Wizards, confirmed the incident, telling CNN: "The building security staff removed signs tonight in accordance with Capital One Arena's long-standing Signs, Banners, Posters, and Flag Policy." Hall said no fans were asked to leave the game.

This is the second incident of security engaging with fans at NBA games over pro-Hong Kong signs this week. On Tuesday, two fans were ejected from a 76ers game at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia for after holding signs and chanting in solidarity with pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong.

Hall said the signs at Wednesday's game specifically violated the following elements of the stadium policy:

"Item may not be constructed or displayed in a manner that may obstruct the view of other guests, interrupt the experience of other guests, or create a safety hazard."

"Item may not be commercial or political in nature."

Jodi Fick, spokeswoman for the arena, had no additional comment.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 14, 2019, 11:33:33 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 11, 2019, 05:14:15 PM
The nine dash line is very common on the Mainland.  Failure to show the line is unpatriotic.

No doubt, but in the rest of the world it is considered to be an affront to international law, including the LOS Convention that the PRC signed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 14, 2019, 03:37:01 PM
The latest Dreamworks movie (co-produced with a Shanghai production company) also does this:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGzOyuvVAAAp1zT?format=jpg&name=small)

It has now been pulled in Vietnam.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 14, 2019, 03:39:05 PM
The silliest thing about the line is that it runs basically to the shore of sovereign nations.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 14, 2019, 04:22:01 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on October 12, 2019, 12:45:28 AM
It's kind of like in Russia it's illegal to show a map that doesn't have Crimea as part of Russia.


Crimea is at least big enough to be visible on a world map.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 14, 2019, 04:40:55 PM
Quote from: Syt on October 14, 2019, 03:39:05 PM
The silliest thing about the line is that it runs basically to the shore of sovereign nations.

That's the purpose of the line. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 14, 2019, 04:42:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 14, 2019, 04:22:01 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on October 12, 2019, 12:45:28 AM
It's kind of like in Russia it's illegal to show a map that doesn't have Crimea as part of Russia.


Crimea is at least big enough to be visible on a world map.
That's the silliest thimg.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on October 15, 2019, 11:36:19 AM
This is one of those case where having some freedom of speech puts you in a less free situation than if you didn't have it.  If the US had a law against private individuals/corporations conducting diplomacy by recognizing claims on contested lands, then they'd be protected from China's bullying.  Technically they'd have their speech limited by the US itself, but in practice this kind of limitation would pose less harm to them than being essentially subject to Chinese freedom of speech laws.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on October 15, 2019, 12:25:00 PM
I used to think that exposing China to liberal western culture would on the long (LONG) run ease a transition to more liberal values, but now it seems we're importing their cuntishness because of how dependant companies are on Chinese money, and the fact western countries don't control speech while China does.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: dps on October 15, 2019, 12:39:14 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2019, 11:36:19 AM
This is one of those case where having some freedom of speech puts you in a less free situation than if you didn’t have it.  If the US had a law against private individuals/corporations conducting diplomacy by recognizing claims on contested lands, then they’d be protected from China’s bullying.  Technically they’d have their speech limited by the US itself, but in practice this kind of limitation would pose less harm to them than being essentially subject to Chinese freedom of speech laws.

That's an incredibly stupid idea.  You know what would protect US companies from Chinese bullying?  Less greed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on October 15, 2019, 12:43:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 14, 2019, 03:37:01 PM
The latest Dreamworks movie (co-produced with a Shanghai production company) also does this:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGzOyuvVAAAp1zT?format=jpg&name=small)

It has now been pulled in Vietnam.
Is that Abominable?  It seems like it was co-produced with the Chinese office of tourism and approved by the Ministry of Propaganda...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on October 15, 2019, 02:57:29 PM
Quote from: dps on October 15, 2019, 12:39:14 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2019, 11:36:19 AM
This is one of those case where having some freedom of speech puts you in a less free situation than if you didn't have it.  If the US had a law against private individuals/corporations conducting diplomacy by recognizing claims on contested lands, then they'd be protected from China's bullying.  Technically they'd have their speech limited by the US itself, but in practice this kind of limitation would pose less harm to them than being essentially subject to Chinese freedom of speech laws.

That's an incredibly stupid idea.  You know what would protect US companies from Chinese bullying?  Less greed.
Yes, that is definitely a practical solution in a capitalist economy: just ask the companies nicely to not maximize their profits.

You're a smart man, smarter than me.  You know calling ideas "incredibly stupid" without elaborating doesn't give people the right idea of your intelligence, especially when you immediately follow it up by saying something not fully thought out.  It would be a better idea to not do that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on October 15, 2019, 04:15:04 PM
If men were angels, we wouldn't need laws.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: dps on October 18, 2019, 12:16:23 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2019, 02:57:29 PM
Quote from: dps on October 15, 2019, 12:39:14 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2019, 11:36:19 AM
This is one of those case where having some freedom of speech puts you in a less free situation than if you didn’t have it.  If the US had a law against private individuals/corporations conducting diplomacy by recognizing claims on contested lands, then they’d be protected from China’s bullying.  Technically they’d have their speech limited by the US itself, but in practice this kind of limitation would pose less harm to them than being essentially subject to Chinese freedom of speech laws.

That's an incredibly stupid idea.  You know what would protect US companies from Chinese bullying?  Less greed.
Yes, that is definitely a practical solution in a capitalist economy: just ask the companies nicely to not maximize their profits.

You’re a smart man, smarter than me.  You know calling ideas “incredibly stupid” without elaborating doesn’t give people the right idea of your intelligence, especially when you immediately follow it up by saying something not fully thought out.  It would be a better idea to not do that.

You seem to misunderstand my point.  The incredibly stupid part is thinking that you can somehow increase freedom by taking freedom away.  Of course people and businesses that do business with China are going to be vulnerable to being bullied by the Chinese--but they have the freedom to decide how to respond to that bullying.  And that's appropriate.  Heck, a private citizen who doesn't have any business dealings with China is free to express agreement with the PRC's policies and territorial claims if they wish;  another private citizen shouldn't lose that right just because they run a company that does happen to do business with China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on October 18, 2019, 12:34:22 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on October 15, 2019, 04:15:04 PM
If men were angels, we wouldn't need laws.


I was thinking of that the other day.  A question popped in my head.  Why would heaven need a king?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 18, 2019, 01:09:18 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-50093028

QuoteAbominable: A DreamWorks movie, a map, and a huge regional row

Malaysian censors have ordered a scene to be cut from DreamWorks film Abominable before it is screened there - because of a brief glimpse of a map.

It is the third South East Asian country to take offence at the scene in the film
, a Chinese co-production.

The contentious map shows the "nine-dash line", which China uses to show its claims in the South China Sea.

Parts of the sea and various island groups are claimed by five other Asian countries, as well as China.

Vietnam has already pulled the movie - while Philippine politicians are calling for a DreamWorks boycott.

It might be merely a backdrop in an animated movie - but it shines a spotlight on one of the world's hottest territorial disputes.

What is in the scene?
Abominable is an animated children's movie which actually has nothing to do with the South China Sea.

It's about a Chinese girl from Shanghai who discovers a yeti on her roof, strikes up a friendship with him, and - against all odds - manages to take him back to Mount Everest.

The girl, Yi, has a makeshift shed on the roof of the high-rise where she lives. In that shed, there's a big map of East Asia on the wall, with pictures and notes pinned to it.

And it shows the South China Sea - with a series of lines marking what's known as China's nine-dash line.

What is the nine-dash line?
The South China Sea is a strategically important region, rich in potential natural resources and fishing grounds, and lying between several influential countries.

China says it has always controlled a large chunk of this territory. The nine-dash line carves out by far the largest portion - leaving only a small coastal strip to each of the other claimants.

In 1947, China issued a map detailing its claims, and insists history backs up its claims.

The other claimants beg to differ.

Vietnam also has historic maps showing its claims, while the Philippines invokes its proximity to some of the islands, which have long been populated by Filipinos.

While Taiwan's claim mirrors that of China (and China considers Taiwan to be part of China anyway), Malaysia and Brunei insist parts of the sea fall within their economic exclusion zones as defined by United Nations laws.

The Philippines have sought international arbitration - and a UN tribunal in 2016 backed Manila, saying China had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights.

Beijing, though, boycotted the proceedings and the ruling hasn't had any consequences.

China's rapidly growing influence in the region has the other claimants torn between taking a stance - or bowing to Beijing's economic might.

Why was it included in the film?

It's hard to say, as it doesn't actually play a role in the movie.

But Abominable the first co-production between US company DreamWorks and China's Pearl Studio production firm.

Within China, the sea is routinely shown with the nine-dash line. So for the Chinese side of the co-production, it's simply an accurate and normal map.

Movie goers in Vietnam, though, were quick to accuse China of inserting the map to gradually make its claims less and less controversial on the global stage.

In fact, Beijing doesn't merely claim the territory: it runs naval patrols in the area and, for years, has been building military outposts on the disputed islands.

In some cases, small rocky reefs have turned into fully fledged military runways.

Over the past few years, China has become more insistent on territorial questions.

It has, for instance, been increasingly strict in policing how foreign firms describe Hong Kong - which is part of China but has a special status - or Taiwan, which is self-ruled but which Beijing sees as a province of the mainland that has broken away.

This has led to officials and outraged Chinese social media users going after Western companies that use "wrong" maps.

Just this week, Christian Dior apologised to China for using a map of China without Taiwan.

What have Malaysia and other countries said?

"The film has been given approval for screening in Malaysia," the Malaysian film board chairman Mohamad Zamberi Abdul Aziz told news agency Reuters.

"Under the condition that the controversial map is removed from the film."

Vietnamese movie-goers were the first to notice the nine-dash line - and officials swiftly ordered the film to be pulled.

Next was the Philippines, where public and politicians were equally upset. Foreign Minister Teddy Locsin on Twitter called for a boycott and speculated about cutting the map out of the movie.

The movie has been showing in the US since last month, and the map scene has largely gone unnoticed.

Yet the US is also frequently at loggerheads with Beijing over the South China Sea.

The US Navy routinely carries out what it calls "freedom of navigation" acts. Its ships sail through what the US calls international waters - only for China to accuse it of provocation and interference in regional matters.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on October 18, 2019, 05:30:14 AM
Quote from: dps on October 18, 2019, 12:16:23 AM
You seem to misunderstand my point. 
Very easy to do when your entire point consists of calling the argument incredibly stupid.
QuoteThe incredibly stupid part is thinking that you can somehow increase freedom by taking freedom away.
Okay, I see where you're coming from, so that allows me to address your argument.  What you're calling as incredibly stupid is in fact part of game theory.  It's paradoxical, not incredibly stupid.  Incredibly stupid may be missing the paradox entirely without realizing that the situation is more complex than it seems.

Sometimes having freedom to do something leaves you vulnerable to coercion that costs you more freedom than that freedom of action gives you.  In game theory, you often have situations where having an option to act actually forces your hand in equilibrium, so in fact that extra freedom is enslaving rather than liberating.  One of the solutions to prisoner's dilemma is to make snitching so cost-prohibitive that it's no longer an option, which would actually leave you better off as a result, because that same restriction of freedom that's imposed on you protects you from your partner snitching on you.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on October 18, 2019, 02:49:22 PM
Joint letter by 2 Senators/3 Representatives to Activision/Blizzard:

https://www.wyden.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/101819%20Wyden%20Letter%20to%20Activision%20Blizzard%20RE%20Hong%20Kong.pdf

Not often you will see Marco Rubio and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signing off together on an issue. :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 18, 2019, 02:51:42 PM
Yeah this whole China thing is producing rare moments of unanimity in Congress. You don't see that very often.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 25, 2019, 11:24:18 AM
Also in China.
Big news in the uk at the moment is 29 dead Chinese people being found in the back of a freezer van having just been smuggled into the country.
Apparently the Chinese Internet is freaking out and pulling ebrywhich way.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on October 25, 2019, 12:53:17 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 25, 2019, 11:24:18 AM
Also in China.
Big news in the uk at the moment is 29 dead Chinese people being found in the back of a freezer van having just been smuggled into the country.
Apparently the Chinese Internet is freaking out and pulling ebrywhich way.

39, not 29.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 25, 2019, 01:14:30 PM
Its beginning to look like the people in the refrigerated container were Vietnamese, at least some of them anyway.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50185788

£30k to be an illegal in the UK; sounds like a lot to me  :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on October 25, 2019, 02:05:54 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on October 25, 2019, 12:53:17 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 25, 2019, 11:24:18 AM
Also in China.
Big news in the uk at the moment is 29 dead Chinese people being found in the back of a freezer van having just been smuggled into the country.
Apparently the Chinese Internet is freaking out and pulling ebrywhich way.

39, not 29.

it was reported as 29 here on the first day too, so I guess they revised it at some point?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on October 25, 2019, 04:10:22 PM
Quote from: HVC on October 25, 2019, 02:05:54 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on October 25, 2019, 12:53:17 PM
Quote from: Tyr on October 25, 2019, 11:24:18 AM
Also in China.
Big news in the uk at the moment is 29 dead Chinese people being found in the back of a freezer van having just been smuggled into the country.
Apparently the Chinese Internet is freaking out and pulling ebrywhich way.

39, not 29.

it was reported as 29 here on the first day too, so I guess they revised it at some point?

They were reporting 39 before lunch back on Wednesday so it must have been a very early report that said 29.

Of course, at that time they were also still reporting as if the trailer, not just the cab, had come in from Holyhead. It was rather confusing the next time the news was on when all of a sudden the trailer had come from Zeebrugge without any explanation.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 05, 2019, 07:50:00 AM
Meanwhile in Chinese soft power:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/05/hong-kong-protest-themed-cake-disqualified-from-uk-baking-contest
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on November 05, 2019, 07:55:00 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2019, 07:50:00 AM
Meanwhile in Chinese soft power:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/05/hong-kong-protest-themed-cake-disqualified-from-uk-baking-contest

Jesus.

Opening up to China in the 90's was a mistake.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on November 05, 2019, 09:18:42 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2019, 07:50:00 AM
Meanwhile in Chinese soft power:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/05/hong-kong-protest-themed-cake-disqualified-from-uk-baking-contest

The more China does this shit the more unpopular it becomes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on November 05, 2019, 09:23:49 AM
as long as we buy their stuff I don't think they care how popular they are
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on November 05, 2019, 09:24:59 AM
Quote from: HVC on November 05, 2019, 09:23:49 AM
as long as we buy their stuff I don't think they care how popular they are

Well that is the thing. There are plenty of other places to make that shit, places that will not assault our citizens rights and freedoms and try to control our internal affairs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on November 05, 2019, 09:29:42 AM
Quote from: HVC on November 05, 2019, 09:23:49 AM
as long as we buy their stuff I don't think they care how popular they are

Seriously fuck the Chinese, better to just slowly start shifting production lines out of there. They steal everything, even if it's nailed down IP wise and worse they demand we conform to their internal depravities. Which in itself is a huge unknown business risk anyway. Sure they can maybe keep the pots and pans stuff, etc but everything else is better off someplace else
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on November 05, 2019, 09:35:28 AM
Quote from: Legbiter on November 05, 2019, 09:29:42 AM
Quote from: HVC on November 05, 2019, 09:23:49 AM
as long as we buy their stuff I don't think they care how popular they are

Seriously fuck the Chinese, better to just slowly start shifting production lines out of there. They steal everything, even if it's nailed down IP wise and worse they demand we conform to their internal depravities. Which in itself is a huge unknown business risk anyway. Sure they can making pots and pans, etc but everything else is better off someplace else

Legbiter and me agree on something :hmm:

I liked that story about how that Chinese company began this big sporting goods line called "Jordan" and had a silhouette of Michael Jordan as their logo, and this is one big fucking company with stores all over China. So, of course, Michael Jordan sues them and not only did the Chinese courts decide that that could be any basketball player named Jordan and ruled in favor of the Chinese company but then Jordan got counter-sued...and I think he even lost :lol: not to mention the latest threats to the entire NBA just because the GM of the Houston Rockets tweeted something. I mean and this is just shit related to Basketball. WTF China?

Anyway I thought the attempts to bring them into the international system would moderate the Communist Party in its excesses but...I think it is pretty obvious that that was a failed experiment. We all made money and had some fun but it is time to move on. They are not moderating shit and our interests are hurt the longer they are tied to theirs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on November 05, 2019, 10:25:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2019, 09:24:59 AM
Quote from: HVC on November 05, 2019, 09:23:49 AM
as long as we buy their stuff I don't think they care how popular they are

Well that is the thing. There are plenty of other places to make that shit, places that will not assault our citizens rights and freedoms and try to control our internal affairs.

but for the same price? I guess we can move to an African country to do it. we've gone through most of the Asian ones.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on November 05, 2019, 10:26:25 AM
Quote from: HVC on November 05, 2019, 10:25:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 05, 2019, 09:24:59 AM
Quote from: HVC on November 05, 2019, 09:23:49 AM
as long as we buy their stuff I don't think they care how popular they are

Well that is the thing. There are plenty of other places to make that shit, places that will not assault our citizens rights and freedoms and try to control our internal affairs.

but for the same price? I guess we can move to an African country to do it. we've gone through most of the Asian ones.

Actually the other Asian countries have been happy to get manufacturing back after the tariffs went into effect.

But there is always India and Bangladesh and places like that. Lots of peasants left.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 05, 2019, 10:45:05 AM
Y'all are missing the point. This stuff doesn't happen because China makes shit, but because they buy it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 05, 2019, 12:58:05 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on November 05, 2019, 07:55:00 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 05, 2019, 07:50:00 AM
Meanwhile in Chinese soft power:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/05/hong-kong-protest-themed-cake-disqualified-from-uk-baking-contest

Jesus.

Opening up to China in the 90's was a mistake.

only Nixon could go to China.
He should have stayed home instead
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on November 05, 2019, 02:17:48 PM
I read a story about Chinese manufacturing.  I think one of the reasons Chinese manufacturing is essential to the global supply chain is not only because of things like prices, but also because China is pretty much the only place in the world where a company boss has the ability to ring the bell in the middle of the night, wake up the 100,000 factory workers who literally live inside the gigantic factory compound in the middle of the night, and demand that they make sufficient quantities of a, say, specific type of nails that is needed to make a laptop.  And won't suffer any adverse consequences.  The same kind of nails would take a few months to make in the US, whereas it would be a matter of hours in Mainland China. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2019, 02:21:00 PM
The organizers of the baking show gave a reason for disqualifying unrelated to political speech.  It's also hard to see what they would have to fear from losing the Chinese market.  I don't think it fits the general pattern.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on November 05, 2019, 02:29:22 PM
Really, why would a baking show feel the need to disqualify innocuous unrelated political speech other then worrying about offending Chinese sensibilities?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on November 05, 2019, 02:43:54 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2019, 02:21:00 PM
The organizers of the baking show gave a reason for disqualifying unrelated to political speech.  It's also hard to see what they would have to fear from losing the Chinese market.  I don't think it fits the general pattern.

Damn it Sheilbh!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 05, 2019, 05:19:34 PM
:lol:

What can I say? At best I read headlines.

But the Global Times is reporting that Chinese netizens are unhappy at the "pro-violence" cakes:
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1169037.shtml
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 25, 2019, 03:43:51 PM
Second set of extraordinary leaks on Xinjiang.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/24/china-cables-leak-no-escapes-reality-china-uighur-prison-camp
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on November 25, 2019, 08:44:11 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 25, 2019, 03:43:51 PM
Second set of extraordinary leaks on Xinjiang.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/24/china-cables-leak-no-escapes-reality-china-uighur-prison-camp

I wonder why there are leaks and who is responsible for the leaks. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on November 25, 2019, 09:37:59 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 25, 2019, 08:44:11 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 25, 2019, 03:43:51 PM
Second set of extraordinary leaks on Xinjiang.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/24/china-cables-leak-no-escapes-reality-china-uighur-prison-camp

I wonder why there are leaks and who is responsible for the leaks.

Plumbers.


Or alternatively, decent people can't stand what they're witnessing; kind of like how the holocaust wasn't a keep a secret for too long.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on November 25, 2019, 09:53:27 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 25, 2019, 09:37:59 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 25, 2019, 08:44:11 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 25, 2019, 03:43:51 PM
Second set of extraordinary leaks on Xinjiang.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/24/china-cables-leak-no-escapes-reality-china-uighur-prison-camp

I wonder why there are leaks and who is responsible for the leaks.

Plumbers.


Or alternatively, decent people can't stand what they're witnessing; kind of like how the holocaust wasn't a keep a secret for too long.

Or some kind of power struggle within the top ranks  This leak weakens Xi. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 25, 2019, 11:11:25 PM
Plumbers fix leaks, any old fool can create one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on November 26, 2019, 08:45:48 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 25, 2019, 09:53:27 PM
Or some kind of power struggle within the top ranks  This leak weakens Xi. 

Jiang's faction  :ph34r:

It is not exactly shocking though, it reveals just the extent of the attempt to destroy the Uighurs. But that much is clear to anybody with eyes to see.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 26, 2019, 07:42:01 PM
Looks like Beijing is high on its own supply and legitimately thought they were going to gain seats in the Hong Kong election.  :lol:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/25/hong-kong-election-beijing-media-delusions-victory/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 26, 2019, 08:16:18 PM
Beijing: "Which civil servant wrote this briefing about the silent majority?!"
Mono: :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on November 26, 2019, 08:22:01 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 26, 2019, 07:42:01 PM
Looks like Beijing is high on its own supply and legitimately thought they were going to gain seats in the Hong Kong election.  :lol:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/25/hong-kong-election-beijing-media-delusions-victory/
I don't think there is an autocratic power structure anywhere that figured out how to scare people into obedience without putting itself into an information bubble.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 26, 2019, 08:35:33 PM
I think parts of mainland China could be heading that way. There was an excellent piece in the LRB on the Chinese internet.

But if you have an autocratic state, plus a consumer economy with state access to the underlying internet infrastructure and data of an Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook and the tools to analyse that then you'll be closer to an autocratic state plus good information that's been achieved.

It won't be perfect and there could still be surprises, but it's a world away from relying on a "Liaison Office" or the party plus secret police.

Edit:
LRB piece:
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n19/john-lanchester/document-number-nine
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on November 26, 2019, 09:24:33 PM
If you look at the election data, there is good reason for the pro-Beijing camp to believe that it will win the election.

Overall, pro-Beijing parties won more than 50% more votes than the last election.  Most pro-Beijing candidates won more votes than they did last time. 

You also need to understand how they do electioneering on the ground.  They don't rely much on advertisements.  Instead, it is a vast network of personal relationships.  They have lots of staff who personally know every voter, cater to their needs, help them apply for welfare, jobs and schools, give them gifts, free legal and health advice, day in, day out, over many years.  They know almost exactly how many votes they will get before each election.  They know they'll get 50% more votes than last time. 

50% more.  That is enough margin to win anything, right? 

Turns out the pan-democrats won like 200-300% more votes. 

So I don't think this is a case of believing its own propaganda.  It is a case of underestimating the opposition. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 27, 2019, 07:13:07 PM
That explanation actually makes sense. Interesting.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on November 27, 2019, 07:44:35 PM
The next election will be the legislative council election next year.  The district council election that just took place is first past the post.  The legislative council election is proportional representation. 

You know what, under HK's proportional representation system, knowing exactly how many votes you'll get gives you a huge advantage. 

Say it takes about 40k votes to win a seat.  The pro-Beijing camp nominates three candidates.  The pro-democracy camp nominates five candidates.

Pro-Beijing #1 = 41k votes
Pro-Beijing #2 = 43k votes
Pro-Beijing #2 = 42k votes

All 3 candidates are elected.  So 126k votes to gain 3 seats.

Pro-democracy #1 = 70k votes
Pro-democracy #2 = 10k votes
Pro-democracy #3 = 50k votes
Pro-democracy #4 = 30k votes
Pro-democracy #5 = 60k votes

So candidates 1, 3 and 5 are elected.  That's 220k votes to gain 3 seats.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on December 19, 2019, 04:52:49 AM
https://www.pcgamer.com/star-soccer-player-mesut-ozil-removed-from-pes-2020-in-china-over-tweets-criticizing-the-government/

QuoteStar soccer player Mesut Ozil removed from PES 2020 in China over tweets criticizing the government

Mesut Ozil tweeted about China's detention and mistreatment of Uighurs and other Muslims in the Xinjiang province

Arsenal star Mesut Ozil caused a stir last week when he criticized the alleged ongoing human rights abuses and persecution of Uighur Muslims by the Chinese government, and the failure of Muslims globally to adequately respond. As translated by The Guardian, he wrote, "[In China] Qurans are burned, mosques were closed down, Islamic theological schools, madrasas were banned, religious scholars were killed one by one. Despite all this, Muslims stay quiet."

The tweet sparked a backlash among Chinese Arsenal fans, and Arsenal's predictable effort to distance itself from its player—"As a football club, Arsenal has always adhered to the principle of not involving itself in politics"—failed to calm the outrage. Angry comments were posted, jerseys were burned, and China's state broadcaster canceled a planned airing of a game between Arsenal and Manchester City.

Now the backlash has also spread to videogames, as Ozil has reportedly been cut from PES 2020 in China. According to the BBC, publisher Netease has removed Ozil from all three editions of the game available in China, saying in a statement that his comments "hurt the feelings of Chinese fans and violated the sport's spirit of love and peace. We do not understand, accept or forgive this."

Earlier this year, 23 nations including the US, UK, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan issued a joint statement at the United Nations condemning the Chinese government's detention and mistreatment of Uighurs and other Muslims in camps in the Xinjiang province. Shortly after that, Belarus issued a statement on behalf of 54 nations, including Russia, Egypt, Bolivia, and Serbia, in support of China's "counter-terrorism" program, describing the detention camps as "vocational education and training centers."

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came out in explicit support of Ozil, saying on Twitter that "the truth will prevail."

The reaction to Ozil's criticism reflects an increased willingness by China's game industry to flex its muscles in support of the government, as seen previously in response to expressions of support for Hong Kong from Hearthstone grandmaster Chung "blitzchung" Ng Wai and Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey.

In both cases, corporate interests moved quickly to mollify Chinese audiences—Blizzard suspended Blitzchung and two casters involved in the incident, while the NBA issued a de facto apology on Morey's behalf—and as grotesque as it is, it's not hard to understand why: As we said in October, the Chinese market is simply "too lucrative to piss off."

And while cutting a real person from a videogame because they were critical of the Chinese government feels like an escalation, it's not at all out of character: China actively censors videogames and other forms of entertainment media, and maintains policies that ensure foreign companies can do very little about it.

Somewhat oddly, given his apparent support for human rights, Ozil is also a known supporter of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has imposed an increasingly authoritarian regime on the nation since becoming president in 2014 and recently launched an ethnic cleansing campaign of his own against Kurds in Syria. Erdogan actually served as a witness at Ozil's wedding earlier this year; Helge Braun, chief of staff of German Chancellor Angela Merkel (Ozil is German), said Erdogan's presence as a witness "makes one sad."

A Konami rep declined to comment on Ozil's removal from PES 2020 in China. I've reached out to Netease for more information, and will update if I receive a reply. Resident Arsenal fan Tim Clark would also like to hear Ozil's thoughts on why the team's season currently resembles a slow motion shuttle crash, but alas we are out of time.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on December 19, 2019, 07:44:10 AM
China sounds so lovely...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 19, 2019, 09:44:41 AM
Anyone able to comment on the slow motion shuttle crash?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 19, 2019, 04:59:59 PM
I hope more players will show solidarity and speak out. Will be interesting to see how the Chinese react with the whole league cut off. Hell. Let's make it international.
Finally the Chinese leagues time is here.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 22, 2019, 06:50:12 AM
Scandal in the UK:
QuoteTesco says it has suspended production at a factory in China alleged to have forced foreign prisoners to help make charity Christmas cards and also withdrawn them from sale.

The allegations came to light after the Sunday Times reported that Florence Widdicombe, aged six, from Tooting, south London, opened a box of charity Christmas cards from the supermarket and discovered a plea for help inside one of them.

The message read: "We are foreign prisoners in Shanghai Qinqpu prison China. Forced to work against our will. Please help us and notify human rights organization."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on December 22, 2019, 06:53:54 AM
I once found a card with something in Chinese scribbled on it, inside a bowl I bought at BB&B. I wanted to take it to a Chinese friend for translation, but I misplaced it.

Now I'm worried I let somebody die inside a Chinese salad bowl factory  :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 22, 2019, 07:30:21 AM
I recall reading a similar story last year.
Seems a common occurrence :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-45976946

If I was a Philippine factory owner (or someone else cheap but non-slavey) I'd advertise myself as guaranteed slave labour-free.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on December 25, 2019, 08:18:54 AM
Quote from: garbon on December 19, 2019, 07:44:10 AM
China sounds so lovely...
of course it is lovely.  Only madmen and criminals would disagree, and no one should associate with these anyway...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 25, 2019, 08:50:53 AM
Really fascinated on the Ozil story.

Yaya Toure basically tweeted at him that he should stay in his lane.

Shahid Afridi, former Pakistani cricketer, tweeted something in support of Uyghurs and asking Imran Khan to speak up (similar to Ozil's tweet which mainly seemed aimed at Muslim nations).

Chinese deputy foreign minister (and lots of netizens) reply that he's been misled by Western propaganda and the West is demonising China and exploiting the sentiments of Muslims. Also loads of Pakistani replies that he should shut up and know his place and China's Pakistan's closest friend now.

So he deleted the tweet - which is now being picked up by other people in Pakistan as an example of how they've moved from being a US "colony" to a Chinese "colony".

Really interesting to see if other athletes decide to say anything. For footballers there is a very real personal cost for their own commercial deals in China, but there'll be pressure even in sports that China doesn't care about.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 16, 2020, 03:30:07 PM
In 2016, the US exported $115.6 billion of goods to China and imported $462,420.   We don't have final numbers for Dec 2019.  But plugging in a monthly average would give annual numbers of $106.6 billion exports and $456 billion imports.

So basically after 3 years of bluster, threats and tariff impositions, the trade numbers remain almost exactly the same as they were pre-Trump.

That is a bit misleading, however, because economic activity in both countries has increased significantly in the last 3 years, so US-China trade as a proportion of overall economic activity has declined noticeably.  I.e. Trump hasn't moved the needle on the (irrelevant) trade balance that obsesses him, but he has suppressed trading activity overall.  The main consequence of the policy in the US has been suppressed agricultural sales as well as higher producer and consumer prices from taxation (tariffs).  To the extent the incidence of the tariffs falls on consumers it acts as a regressive tax; to the extent it falls on producers procuring inputs from China, it increases producer costs and makes them less competitive.

In short, the China trade policy to date appears to be a failure in terms of direct impact.  The question is whether it brings secondary benefit in terms of negotiating leverage which brings us to the agreement signed yesterday which will go in the next post.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on January 16, 2020, 03:43:47 PM
I really enjoy these analyses that you do. Please keep them coming.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 16, 2020, 04:43:43 PM
Which brings us to the Phase 1 deal.

+ The headline from the deal is the commitment by China to make billions in future purposes.  However, there is no real teeth to that commitment.  Also, if China believes that its ability to meet the commitment is affected by anything relating to the US, it is entitled to "consultations".  This looks something drafted for the purposes of a press release, not a meaningful trade accord provision.

+ Another component is commitments from China to ease barriers to US Ag imports.  While these seem potentially useful, the Phase 1 deal does not require China to cut tariffs on a range of ag products.

+ China makes various commitments ostensibly to strengthen its IP laws; however, most of those commitments seem to track provisions of a law that China enacted earlier this year.  In other words China is committing to enact legislation it already enacted months ago.

+ For the most part, existing tariffs remain in place.

Bottom line this looks like a political marketing documents more than a substantive accord.  It is designed to create the appearance of progress and it fit into press releases allowing each side to take credit for "victory"  It doesn't really move the ball on trade.

The best one can say from the US side is that it doesn't harm the US as compared to the status quo c. 1-14-20 and may provide a groundwork for future progress.  Problem is that the 1-14-20 status quo is not good so unless it generates momentum to a real deal, it represents a missed opportunity.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 16, 2020, 04:55:25 PM
It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking because Trump is doing it, it must be wrong.  I thought the trade war is certainly disruptive, but could be worth it in the long run.  But only if they succeed in dismantling the system of subsides for SOEs and strengthen IP protection.  Instead Trump is framing victory as China buys a bunch of US stuff made by people that support him, at least for a while.

On a side note, oodles of commentators have been crowing about Tesla's big entry into the Chinese market, but my fear is it's all an elaborate plot to steal Tesla tech and hand it over to Chinese competitors.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 16, 2020, 05:09:34 PM
Doesn't Tesla already share their technology openly?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 16, 2020, 05:11:42 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 16, 2020, 04:55:25 PM
It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking because Trump is doing it, it must be wrong. 

I agree. The deal is fine in itself.  It doesn't do much but it doesn't hurt either.  Same was true of the Mexico deal which was basically NAFTA redux + some stuff Mexico had already agreed to in the context of the TPP negotiations.  Problem is that Trump's case that tariffs will give him leverage to get big concessions has yet to be proven and I see no signs China intends to cave anytime soon.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 16, 2020, 05:16:48 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 16, 2020, 05:09:34 PM
Doesn't Tesla already share their technology openly?

They opened up their patents to open source a few years back and the software is open source as well.
Musk would probably be thrilled if Chinese mfrs copied tech and succeeded and getting mass sales - that would drive build-out of charging and support infrastructure.  His business model is about driving adoption of electric vehicles and driving out gas powered. I'm sure his is confident he can still execute better and grab a nice share of the premium end of a much expanded electric market.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on January 16, 2020, 05:25:00 PM
It's also one thing to share tech specs and a whole other thing to actually implement them. If someone were to use Tesla specs they would probably need a lot of help from Tesla to implement them. In order to make a fully compatible vehicle and loading station I mean.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 17, 2020, 01:05:41 PM
Quote from: Threviel on January 16, 2020, 05:25:00 PM
It's also one thing to share tech specs and a whole other thing to actually implement them. If someone were to use Tesla specs they would probably need a lot of help from Tesla to implement them. In order to make a fully compatible vehicle and loading station I mean.

Tesla has enough trouble implementing its own tech.  The Economist edition on China last week noted there are 40 EV start ups in China.  Telsa would benefit from their tech becoming the standard.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Savonarola on February 14, 2020, 04:01:23 PM
CB and I saw a lecture last night by Wanfa Zhang, a professor at the Florida Institute of Technology called "Why Communist China Isn't Collapsing."  He recently co-authored a book on the subject. (https://www.amazon.com/Communist-China-isnt-Collapsing-State-Society/dp/1498567150)  His thesis was existing political science models don't adequately explain the Chinese system and he developed his own "Comcapitalism" model to explain its survival.

The inherent contradiction (in Western eyes) to the system, I think was best demonstrated in some pictures he had of the center square in his hometown of Guiyang; which had the red wall with communists slogans on one side, the giant statue of Mao on the other and two large glass pyramids in the middle which served as the entrance to the Walmart under the square.

The reasons that he thought the Communist party had survived is that China has experienced incredible growth (per capita GDP was roughly $800 in 1990, today it's about $9000); the party has recruited almost all of the elites in the country (including such unlikely members of the workers' revolution as Ali Baba founder Jeff Ma and Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei); there is a fair amount of social mobility; the party has been responsive to the needs of the people, and have been willing to sacrifice their own local grandees when problems arise in the provinces.  He also brought up that the failures of democracy (especially in the former Eastern Bloc countries, or in the Middle East; but even our polarization in the west) have been used as propaganda for the Communist party.  Finally he said that the Chinese view of self-restraint allowed for a system where the populace could have broad freedoms; but one in which they wouldn't criticize the government.  (Zhang's own book won't be able to be sold in China, since it is heavily critical of Xi.)

The lecture was a kind of community engagement event put on by the university.  The audience was amusing.  About half seemed to believe that the Cultural Revolution was still going on, and had a hard time accepting that there were bookstores that sold anything other than Communist propaganda and children's books.  The other half was deeply ashamed of our Western imperialism and had a hard time accepting that people were actually willingly lining up for Pizza Hut.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 14, 2020, 04:35:10 PM
It could be argued that the greatest single achievement of any government in human history is the success of the post-Mao ChiComs lifting hundreds of millions of people out of dire poverty into a middle class standard of living.  That buys certain degree of popular credibility.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 14, 2020, 04:49:05 PM
It's more than a Chinese thing I'd say. Japan alos by rights should have long since collapsed but it has a special approach to the rules which means it stays perpetually amongst the living dead. Korea also, hasn't hit decline yet but when it does its incestuous system should keep it afloat.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on February 14, 2020, 05:09:18 PM
Not only has the CCP enjoyed economic success over the past several decades on a scale unprecedented in human history, but they are a product of a population that has known only autocratic rule for 5000 years and has very different political and cultural values than in the west.

I'd argue that the post-Mao CCP is largely contiguous with the most significant cultural and governmental traditions of Chinese civilization, although Xi is arguably taking things in a new direction with his technologically driven surveillance state.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on February 14, 2020, 05:37:24 PM
The problem with autocracy is not that it's not capable of producing impressive results, but rather that these kinds of outcomes are brittle and are liable to be reversed at any time.  That said, those of us living in democratic societies in 2020 shouldn't be too confident that our system of governance is all that more robust.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 14, 2020, 06:17:02 PM
Really? I would think Japan's rise from Iron Age backwater to Great World Power in one generation is a bigger thing then going from massive world power with lots of poverty to massive world power with much less poverty

I mean we all knew China, with its vast resources and population, could do this. It was why everybody was eager to invest there in the first place. So I am just a little baffled why this expected outcome is supposed to be mind blowing or some stupendous achievement.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 14, 2020, 06:22:12 PM
I mean would India being a huge economic super power be shocking? No, of course not. Everybody expects that to happen eventually.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 14, 2020, 06:25:32 PM
If Indian per capita income grew ten times it would be a big fucking deal.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on February 14, 2020, 08:08:25 PM
Where is the gratitude to the American/Western consumers that helped drive China's economic growth.  :mad:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on February 14, 2020, 08:15:41 PM
1860 Japan may have been a backwater but was well past the iron age.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on February 14, 2020, 09:34:28 PM
Japan's per-capita GDP doubled between the opening to the west around 1870 and the start of WW1.  That's impressive, but doesn't hold a candle to China 1990-2020.

Having said that, Japan's 2008 per capita GDP was more than ten times the size of its 1950 GDP, so what China has done since 1990 isn't unique.  It's just that we look at the wrong period of Japanese history.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on February 15, 2020, 12:25:37 AM
The formula for rapid growth of per capita GDP is actually fairly straightforward.  First, you have to have a culture that lends itself to being governable, so that when good government comes by, you don't have to spend centuries establishing strong central government tradition.  Second, you have to make sure to fuck things up comprehensively first, so that you can start from a very low level.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: dps on February 15, 2020, 08:07:03 AM
Quote from: grumbler on February 14, 2020, 09:34:28 PM

Having said that, Japan's 2008 per capita GDP was more than ten times the size of its 1950 GDP, so what China has done since 1990 isn't unique.  It's just that we look at the wrong period of Japanese history.

How does their 1950 per capita GDP compare to their 1929 per capita GDP?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 15, 2020, 04:08:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 14, 2020, 06:25:32 PM
If Indian per capita income grew ten times it would be a big fucking deal.

Sure but it would be almost three times what China's is now if they did that. But them dramatically growing to be a huge world economy would not be shocking, as they have that potential.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 15, 2020, 04:56:46 PM
And it'd be reverting to the norm after the unpleasantness with the Brits :ph34r:  :Embarrass:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 15, 2020, 05:46:39 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 15, 2020, 04:56:46 PM
And it'd be reverting to the norm after the unpleasantness with the Brits :ph34r:  :Embarrass:

I guess but it is also very unlikely that country even exists without the unpleasantness with the Brits. Your being assholes brought them together...well that and the university system which was probably the most unintentionally anti-Imperialist thing an empire did.

"Here people who hate each other from different languages, religions, and cultures throughout our tyrannical empire: we are going to give you a common language and insitutional infratstructure to bring you all together..."

But without a view into that alternative universe where Britain just stayed home I guess we will never know.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on February 16, 2020, 12:24:48 AM
Quote from: dps on February 15, 2020, 08:07:03 AM
Quote from: grumbler on February 14, 2020, 09:34:28 PM

Having said that, Japan's 2008 per capita GDP was more than ten times the size of its 1950 GDP, so what China has done since 1990 isn't unique.  It's just that we look at the wrong period of Japanese history.

How does their 1950 per capita GDP compare to their 1929 per capita GDP?

About 20% higher.  That was probably all late 1930s growth, since the economy actually shrank during WW2.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 25, 2020, 02:23:55 AM
Quote from: DGuller on February 15, 2020, 12:25:37 AM
The formula for rapid growth of per capita GDP is actually fairly straightforward.  First, you have to have a culture that lends itself to being governable, so that when good government comes by, you don't have to spend centuries establishing strong central government tradition.  Second, you have to make sure to fuck things up comprehensively first, so that you can start from a very low level.

I don't want to bump stuff that's too old, but Gully's point here is excellent.

Also, I don't think Xi's new direction is historically aberrant. He wouldn't be the first emperor who bragged about how many books he burned.

There is a sense in which I think Westerners and Chinese people have a disconnect in..I want to say worldview, but I think it's deeper than that. More like habit of thought. When the first Opium War kicked off, it was initially called a rebellion in China. The implication being that the mandarin leadership considered THE BRITISH EMPIRE a subject. China had been pretty much the center of the world forever in their own disconnected way, and culturally it still thinks it is. When I talk to the people I know from the mainland its all about "our Chinese people" and "our Chinese products" and "our Chinese girls shouldn't be marrying western white men". Never individuals. Only "our Chinese" whatever.

This is a mentality than can be very easily used by totalitarians to create conformity.

Mono is a downright individualist compared to some of the people I've met. The Confucian Societies especially seem to try to enforce conformity on US campuses among the Chinese students. I think they might be propaganda orgs now that I think about it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: dps on February 25, 2020, 03:07:02 AM
Quote from: grumbler on February 16, 2020, 12:24:48 AM
Quote from: dps on February 15, 2020, 08:07:03 AM
Quote from: grumbler on February 14, 2020, 09:34:28 PM

Having said that, Japan's 2008 per capita GDP was more than ten times the size of its 1950 GDP, so what China has done since 1990 isn't unique.  It's just that we look at the wrong period of Japanese history.

How does their 1950 per capita GDP compare to their 1929 per capita GDP?

About 20% higher.  That was probably all late 1930s growth, since the economy actually shrank during WW2.

Yes, I knew that.  I would have thought it had shrunken even more, and the 1950 GDP would have been lower than that of 1929.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 25, 2020, 03:15:55 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 25, 2020, 02:23:55 AM
Quote from: DGuller on February 15, 2020, 12:25:37 AM
The formula for rapid growth of per capita GDP is actually fairly straightforward.  First, you have to have a culture that lends itself to being governable, so that when good government comes by, you don't have to spend centuries establishing strong central government tradition.  Second, you have to make sure to fuck things up comprehensively first, so that you can start from a very low level.

I don't want to bump stuff that's too old, but Gully's point here is excellent.

Also, I don't think Xi's new direction is historically aberrant. He wouldn't be the first emperor who bragged about how many books he burned.

There is a sense in which I think Westerners and Chinese people have a disconnect in..I want to say worldview, but I think it's deeper than that. More like habit of thought. When the first Opium War kicked off, it was initially called a rebellion in China. The implication being that the mandarin leadership considered THE BRITISH EMPIRE a subject. China had been pretty much the center of the world forever in their own disconnected way, and culturally it still thinks it is. When I talk to the people I know from the mainland its all about "our Chinese people" and "our Chinese products" and "our Chinese girls shouldn't be marrying western white men". Never individuals. Only "our Chinese" whatever.

This is a mentality than can be very easily used by totalitarians to create conformity.

Mono is a downright individualist compared to some of the people I've met. The Confucian Societies especially seem to try to enforce conformity on US campuses among the Chinese students. I think they might be propaganda orgs now that I think about it.

"A subject" doesn't entirely capture it.  Historically, China considered itself the only civilised nation under heaven.  Everybody else are barbarians.  If reality is a civ game, there is only one civ in play.  The relationship between China and other countries isn't a lord/vassal one.  It is more like an educated civ helping a cannibalistic, stone age tribe. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 25, 2020, 03:18:54 AM
A one-player game with just this guy and a bunch of city-states then:

(https://forums.civfanatics.com/media/civ6-qinshihuang.3785/full?d=0)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 25, 2020, 03:21:23 AM
Not city-states.  Barbarian tribes.  City-states are still technological equals.  China considers everybody else inferior. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 25, 2020, 03:22:53 AM
So that made the century of humiliation so much more humiliating I guess.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 25, 2020, 03:29:32 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 25, 2020, 03:22:53 AM
So that made the century of humiliation so much more humiliating I guess.

Yes.  So China's recent rise isn't new.  It is just returning China to its rightful place. 

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2020, 04:05:23 AM
That's the perrenial question with China. To what extent have they got over their old China as ruler of the world view and adapted to the global Post westphalian system and to what extent are they just pretending.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on February 25, 2020, 08:43:46 AM
I don't think that historical view is that deeply held among modern educated Chinese - and certainly not to the extent that modern nationalists and the propaganda organs of the CCP would like! There is a very deep strand of cynicism about Chinese society, its institutions and governance, especially when compared to those in Western / developed countries.

This manifests itself in several ways, for example in the desire of Chinese elites move their money out of the country to Western safe havens to the extent possible and corresponding capital controls in China of increasing strictness) to send children to education overseas, or even to emigrate entirely if possible. Due to censorship within the country, it's hard to measure these attitudes entirely, but I believe these types of things are pretty good indicators.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 25, 2020, 09:08:24 AM
The elites don't necessary indicate what the regular people think do they? The common people might be very sincere.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 17, 2020, 05:21:04 PM
Erm:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/media/china-expels-american-journalists.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Edit: Really, really unsure this back and forth is helpful for the world right now.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on March 18, 2020, 06:59:44 AM
Yeah. And in the context of the Chinese government's desperate attempt to save their (even more) tarnished brand after COVID-19 and shift blame away from themselves for the Coronavirus, and instead attribute it to the United States, the US military, or, really, anywhere but themselves it's counterproductive.

From that perspective, expelling the New York Times and other mainstream left of centre outlets is dumb because many of those mainstream news outlets would have been among the most likely to be more sympathetic to China's narrative, as opposed to the more right-wing sources, which,  ever since the Trump election, have generally turned on a dime and become hawkish about all things Chinese.  Drastically heightened concerns about China will have implications for when the crisis is over and companies and states may re-evaluate supply chains, and the security implications of outsourcing of certain items to China.

And all that is quite apart from the worrisome escalation of tension and cultural drift that the move engenders.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 18, 2020, 11:26:10 AM
Isn't there a bunch of idiocy in the US that the (centre) left were the ones behind this?
Because. You know. We totally do that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 18, 2020, 12:42:33 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 18, 2020, 11:26:10 AM
Isn't there a bunch of idiocy in the US that the (centre) left were the ones behind this?
Because. You know. We totally do that.

Probably. But Syt's relatives were insisting it was a non-crisis that was being invented by the center left media to attack the President...while at the same time claiming it is a Chinese biological weapon.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 20, 2020, 10:25:08 AM
So, what are the chances we'll wake up in a China-dominated world after this?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on March 20, 2020, 10:40:41 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 20, 2020, 10:25:08 AM
So, what are the chances we'll wake up in a China-dominated world after this?

Immediately or in the foreseeable future? Because the probability of the latter has not changed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on March 20, 2020, 11:00:47 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 20, 2020, 10:25:08 AM
So, what are the chances we'll wake up in a China-dominated world after this?

We were already in one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 20, 2020, 12:17:11 PM
It would be nice to see China finally sorting out their wet markets out of this
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 20, 2020, 03:22:54 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on March 20, 2020, 10:40:41 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 20, 2020, 10:25:08 AM
So, what are the chances we'll wake up in a China-dominated world after this?

Immediately or in the foreseeable future? Because the probability of the latter has not changed.

pretty soon and far more openly than even in recent years. This is an excellent opportunity for the Party to flex their muscles. And they are. All those helping hands won't come for free.
And then there's the ruinous effect this'll have on the economies of the free world, coupled with the equally bad effect Trump has had on intra-Western ties (though he's hardly they only one to blame for that).
't Got me thinking...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2020, 03:38:31 PM
I think the Party is terrified. There was already what they consider utter chaos in Hong Kong. The economy has slowed, and it's not the gold rush atmosphere it was in 2005 or so. They've been clamping down on pretty much everything and becoming more and more oppressive. I think it's because they're afraid of losing power (and face). But mostly power.

I do think the future is going to have a huge Chinese participation though. Like in Firefly maybe. But it will be once China opens up and a couple generations go by. Definitely there will be a crisis or civil war in between now and then.

"The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 20, 2020, 03:41:54 PM
They've done a pretty effective job of crushing regional identities though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 20, 2020, 06:42:57 PM
It is a crisis but also an opportunity.  Beijing wants to show to the people that it can manage a crisis well, and that it can lead the world. 

The real problem I think will be what happens after this is over.  Probably tens of thousands people will die all over the world and the economy will suffer.  Many countries are facing their greatest challenge since WWII.  People won't forgive and forget so easily.  There will be demands for change, review and accountability.  The worst nightmare of China will be a united world demanding changes, such as the consumption and trading of wild animals, transparency when it comes to diseases, freedom of the press, more access by NGOs and international agencies, etc. 

I think the WHO is also kinda screwed. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2020, 06:48:05 PM
Oh yeah, the WHO is being exposed pretty badly. Good point. I think reforms will be demanded from them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2020, 06:52:23 PM
Interpol doesn't catch international criminals, the UN Security Council doesn't prevent wars, and the WHO doesn't prevent pandemics.  I didn't have overly high expectations of the WHO going in, and I wasn't disappointed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 20, 2020, 06:54:56 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2020, 06:52:23 PM
Interpol doesn't catch international criminals, the UN Security Council doesn't prevent wars, and the WHO doesn't prevent pandemics.  I didn't have overly high expectations of the WHO going in, and I wasn't disappointed.

The problem is many people are saying the WHO is, well, on China's payroll and its only job is to say good things about China  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2020, 06:55:59 PM
Much like the Red Cross incident a while back.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Habbaku on March 20, 2020, 10:00:34 PM
I'm pretty out of the loop on the WHO thing. Can someone give me a summary or link me something useful about it?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Fate on March 20, 2020, 10:14:06 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 20, 2020, 06:42:57 PM
It is a crisis but also an opportunity.  Beijing wants to show to the people that it can manage a crisis well, and that it can lead the world. 

The real problem I think will be what happens after this is over.  Probably tens of thousands people will die all over the world and the economy will suffer.  Many countries are facing their greatest challenge since WWII.  People won't forgive and forget so easily.  There will be demands for change, review and accountability.  The worst nightmare of China will be a united world demanding changes, such as the consumption and trading of wild animals, transparency when it comes to diseases, freedom of the press, more access by NGOs and international agencies, etc. 

I think the WHO is also kinda screwed.

Any talk or action in China about actually exterminating all wet markets? The 2003-2004 SARS outbreak was the canary in the coal mine. That only killed a few hundred. Now it's pretty clear horseshoe bats/pangolins are the source of SARS 2 / COVID -19. There will be a SARS 3 if the Chinese government allows this practice to continue.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2020, 10:21:26 PM
Swine flu was a thing, so it's not just wild vs. domesticated.

Is it because in China different species are all jammed together, either on farms or in wet markets?

Why have no new animal transmitted diseases not popped up in civilized parts of the world?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Fate on March 20, 2020, 10:29:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2020, 10:21:26 PM
Swine flu was a thing, so it's not just wild vs. domesticated.

Is it because in China different species are all jammed together, either on farms or in wet markets?

Why have no new animal transmitted diseases not popped up in civilized parts of the world?

It's not necessarily an issue of wild vs domesticated. The 2009 swine flu probably came from North American hogs so animal transmitted diseases can pop up in other parts of the civilized world.

Horseshoe bats and pangolins in China are a natural asymptomatic reservoir for a number of SARS virus variants, at least two of which in the past 20 years have caused serious outbreaks in humans.  Either they need to exterminate the natural reservoir species or ban wet markets. It's too dangerous for the world for this to continue.

Similarly there are bat species which are natural reservoirs for Ebola which I'd support extermination of as well, but that hasn't caused a global pandemic yet.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on March 21, 2020, 02:59:35 AM
Anybody here particularly attached to bats? What ecological role do they perform? I wouldn't mind getting rid.  :hmm:

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on March 21, 2020, 03:06:04 AM
They, like wasps, kill flies and mosquitoes. We have them around the house and I love them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 21, 2020, 03:10:20 AM
Not to mention their importance in fighting crime.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 21, 2020, 03:39:46 AM
Yeah I like bats. They're good pest controllers. Let's not eat them ok
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 21, 2020, 04:02:14 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2020, 06:48:05 PM
Oh yeah, the WHO is being exposed pretty badly. Good point. I think reforms will be demanded from them.

The WHO has no power.  It can only recommend and the recommendations it was making were largely ignored, including in the US where your President and his media allies said it was all a left wing hoax.

Yeah, let's definitely blame the WHO.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 21, 2020, 04:21:15 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 21, 2020, 04:02:14 AM
Yeah, let's definitely blame the WHO.

Nobody knows what it's like to be the bad guy.   :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on March 21, 2020, 04:23:24 AM
We won't get fooled again.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 21, 2020, 04:43:23 AM
We have hours, only lonely
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 21, 2020, 07:54:41 AM
Quote from: celedhring on March 21, 2020, 02:59:35 AM
Anybody here particularly attached to bats? What ecological role do they perform? I wouldn't mind getting rid.  :hmm:
I quite like bats - they're charismatic animals.

But we should keep a healthy distance between us and the bats in future :mellow:

QuoteThe WHO has no power.  It can only recommend and the recommendations it was making were largely ignored, including in the US where your President and his media allies said it was all a left wing hoax.

Yeah, let's definitely blame the WHO.
This is true. But the WHO has no power which is why in the middle of January they were issuing statements that there were no human-to-human transmission cases in Wuhan and nothing to worry about.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 21, 2020, 08:06:58 AM
Quote from: Fate on March 20, 2020, 10:14:06 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 20, 2020, 06:42:57 PM
It is a crisis but also an opportunity.  Beijing wants to show to the people that it can manage a crisis well, and that it can lead the world. 

The real problem I think will be what happens after this is over.  Probably tens of thousands people will die all over the world and the economy will suffer.  Many countries are facing their greatest challenge since WWII.  People won't forgive and forget so easily.  There will be demands for change, review and accountability.  The worst nightmare of China will be a united world demanding changes, such as the consumption and trading of wild animals, transparency when it comes to diseases, freedom of the press, more access by NGOs and international agencies, etc. 

I think the WHO is also kinda screwed.

Any talk or action in China about actually exterminating all wet markets? The 2003-2004 SARS outbreak was the canary in the coal mine. That only killed a few hundred. Now it's pretty clear horseshoe bats/pangolins are the source of SARS 2 / COVID -19. There will be a SARS 3 if the Chinese government allows this practice to continue.

Nothing wrong with wet markets per se.  The problem is live animals in wet markets.  An even greater problem is wild animals in wet markets.  In theory the party has already banned the consumption and trading of wild animals.  The trouble is the people ignore the law.  The Wuhan seafood market that started all this didn't really do seafood.  It was a trading and logistics hub of all kinds of wild animals.  Bats and different kinds of species intermixed there. 

The fundamental problem is there is a persistent belief among Chinese that wild animals have all kinds of treasures.  I have seen textbooks for kids educating them that eating the brains of this animal confers this benefit, eating the bone marrow of that will do this, etc etc. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 21, 2020, 08:19:05 AM
I've just looked up a wet market - yeah they're not an issue. Mono's right it's the live animals in there that's the problem.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 21, 2020, 08:41:09 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 21, 2020, 08:19:05 AM
I've just looked up a wet market - yeah they're not an issue. Mono's right it's the live animals in there that's the problem.

Hong Kong's problem is live chickens in our wet markets.  There is a belief that chickens taste better if they are alive when you buy the meat.  I am a pretty picky eater myself and I just don't notice the difference.  The real problem for the government is that there are hundreds of people who make a living out of selling and processing live chickens.  Government's strategy is to wait for them to retire, while discouraging anybody from joining the trade. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 21, 2020, 08:47:49 AM
Mono; are these viewpoints on animals old-fashioned or strong in young people as well as the elderly?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 21, 2020, 09:03:38 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 21, 2020, 08:47:49 AM
Mono; are these viewpoints on animals old-fashioned or strong in young people as well as the elderly?

I would imagine they are stronger among the elderly.  But on the Mainland, many young people still buy those crazy animal theories.  In a way it is a status symbol.  They are quite expensive, so eating exotic animals is one of the ways to show off wealth and status.  So it isn't just the elderly who do it. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on March 21, 2020, 09:06:21 AM
After this outbreak is over and the global cost has been tallied there should be...consequences for China. We got lucky with SARS, our luck ran out with this one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 21, 2020, 09:09:23 AM
Yeah, I just can't see say Italy or Spain moving on like nothing happened half a year later.  They will demand changes, and China will be in the crosshair. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 21, 2020, 09:09:51 AM
Saw this video the other day which is a good summary of china's market issue

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Fate on March 21, 2020, 10:17:23 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 21, 2020, 08:19:05 AM
I've just looked up a wet market - yeah they're not an issue. Mono's right it's the live animals in there that's the problem.

The entire world should ban all travel from China or Chinese nationals until they show us definitely that this practice is gone. We can't shut down our economies like this ever again.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on March 21, 2020, 10:27:22 AM
Quote from: Fate on March 21, 2020, 10:17:23 AMThe entire world should ban all travel from China or Chinese nationals until they show us definitely that this practice is gone. We can't shut down our economies like this ever again.

Need to decouple our supply chains out of that shithole, decentralize them and apply Cold War containment to China. They are an existential threat to us all.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on March 21, 2020, 10:30:02 AM
I wonder how much traction the Chinese "US military started the coronavirus" conspiracy theory will gain outside China. It seems to be taking firm root in the Mainland already.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on March 21, 2020, 10:39:14 AM
Saw that. Disgusting.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 21, 2020, 10:52:19 AM
Quote from: Camerus on March 21, 2020, 10:30:02 AM
I wonder how much traction the Chinese "US military started the coronavirus" conspiracy theory will gain outside China. It seems to be taking firm root in the Mainland already.
Interesting. Especially since the Chinese created it in a lab is gaining a lot of traction.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on March 21, 2020, 11:02:13 AM
They aren't the same. The "US military started it" conspiracy theory is being aggressively pushed by the Chinese state, including by its television networks and by its foreign ministry.

The "escaped man-made virus from a Wuhan lab" has nowhere near the same backing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 21, 2020, 11:02:58 AM
I mean with that isn't it ultimately what the Chinese state is probably going to spin about this now.

Unsustainable, strict measures clamp down and reduce coronavirus to zero new domestic transmissions. The Party declares victory over coronavirus. All new transmissions can be blamed on foreigners coming in and other countries failing to take the unsustainable, strict measures China did.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on March 21, 2020, 11:30:12 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 21, 2020, 09:09:51 AM
Saw this video the other way which is a good summary of china's market issue

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54

:thumbsup:  sent this to my students
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 21, 2020, 12:07:19 PM
Quote from: Camerus on March 21, 2020, 10:30:02 AM
I wonder how much traction the Chinese "US military started the coronavirus" conspiracy theory will gain outside China. It seems to be taking firm root in the Mainland already.

I've seen it crop up here by people who are generally on the not-gullible side.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on March 21, 2020, 12:09:09 PM
Quote from: Camerus on March 21, 2020, 11:02:13 AM
They aren't the same. The "US military started it" conspiracy theory is being aggressively pushed by the Chinese state, including by its television networks and by its foreign ministry.

The "escaped man-made virus from a Wuhan lab" has nowhere near the same backing.

Give it time, Trump has been moving in that direction recently and several members of his party have already gone there (along with some totally-not-aligned-with-the-Nazi media outlets like OAN)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on March 21, 2020, 02:19:39 PM
Quote from: grumbler on March 21, 2020, 11:30:12 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 21, 2020, 09:09:51 AM
Saw this video the other way which is a good summary of china's market issue

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54

:thumbsup:  sent this to my students

Turns out CdM was entirely right.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 21, 2020, 05:23:35 PM
Quote from: Camerus on March 21, 2020, 10:30:02 AM
I wonder how much traction the Chinese "US military started the coronavirus" conspiracy theory will gain outside China. It seems to be taking firm root in the Mainland already.

The idea is widely ridiculed in HK  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on March 21, 2020, 05:32:02 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 21, 2020, 02:19:39 PM
Quote from: grumbler on March 21, 2020, 11:30:12 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 21, 2020, 09:09:51 AM
Saw this video the other way which is a good summary of china's market issue

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54

:thumbsup:  sent this to my students

Turns out CdM was entirely right.

Wish this spurred him to come back for an I TOLD YOU SO ASSBURGERS, victory tour.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 21, 2020, 05:43:38 PM
I had hoped this quarantine would make at least one former poster come back out of sheer boredom. Hasn't happened yet.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2020, 05:45:13 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on March 21, 2020, 05:43:38 PM
I had hoped this quarantine would make at least one former poster come back out of sheer boredom. Hasn't happened yet.

Fromagia?  Pedrito?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 21, 2020, 05:56:05 PM
 :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 21, 2020, 09:28:07 PM
This is all really bad timing for Xi.  The next party congress, which is held every five years, is in 2022.  Xi came to power in 2012.  According to rules laid down by Deng, a leader may serve 10 years.  Both Jiang and Hu, Xi's predecessors, obeyed this rule.  Xi wants to stay longer, and he has already changed the constitution and prevented a successor from appearing.  2020 is supposed to be a big year for him.  He originally planned to declare 2020 as the year China finally lifted everybody out of poverty and reached middle-class hood.  The virus, Hong Kong all risked derailing his plans.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on March 27, 2020, 02:05:08 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 21, 2020, 09:28:07 PM
This is all really bad timing for Xi.  The next party congress, which is held every five years, is in 2022.  Xi came to power in 2012.  According to rules laid down by Deng, a leader may serve 10 years.  Both Jiang and Hu, Xi's predecessors, obeyed this rule.  Xi wants to stay longer, and he has already changed the constitution and prevented a successor from appearing.  2020 is supposed to be a big year for him.  He originally planned to declare 2020 as the year China finally lifted everybody out of poverty and reached middle-class hood.  The virus, Hong Kong all risked derailing his plans.

:( :cry: that's certainly the saddest thing I've heard so far...  It pales compared the devastation Europe &America have suffered due to his failures to enforce an official interdiction of wild animals being raised in cages, all closed to one another, slaughtered in the same place, and delivered to customers amongst the mice feeding off the carcasses.  It is so sad that no one in the entire world, no scientist of any renoknow ever raised the possibility of another pandemic as we are now living after the events of SARS-1, H1N1, and countless other localized diseases.  I'm so sad that Xi might be in a bad political spot right now.  I'll cry myself to bed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 27, 2020, 02:24:44 AM
Well, according to Beijing, the virus is a bio-weapon planted in Wuhan by the US military  ;)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 11:21:57 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 27, 2020, 02:24:44 AM
Well, according to Beijing, the virus is a bio-weapon planted in Wuhan by the US military  ;)

Iran is saying the same thing. The US military decided that bio-weapons were pretty inneffective and difficult to control (you know...like not spread to your own country and shit) decades ago so this isn't really something we do anymore. Besides even when we were it was more about temporarily disabling young soldiers not very slowly killing old people...and as it turned out even very sick soldiers defend themselves.

Though, to be fair, that at least makes more sense than Trump claiming this is a media conspiracy to keep him from being re-elected.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: fromtia on March 27, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 27, 2020, 02:24:44 AM
Well, according to Beijing, the virus is a bio-weapon planted in Wuhan by the US military  ;)

Before we closed, the Libertarians/Alex-Jones/Trump axis of my co workers was vocal about the virus being produced by the Chinese Military, as a rebuttal for Trumps sanctions. As I'm not friends with that cohort really, I haven't kept in touch while we are furloughed, so I'm not sure what the conspiracy du jour is.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on March 27, 2020, 12:46:23 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 11:21:57 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 27, 2020, 02:24:44 AM
Well, according to Beijing, the virus is a bio-weapon planted in Wuhan by the US military  ;)

Iran is saying the same thing. The US military decided that bio-weapons were pretty inneffective and difficult to control (you know...like not spread to your own country and shit) decades ago so this isn't really something we do anymore. Besides even when we were it was more about temporarily disabling young soldiers not very slowly killing old people...and as it turned out even very sick soldiers defend themselves.

Though, to be fair, that at least makes more sense than Trump claiming this is a media conspiracy to keep him from being re-elected.

Interestingly, so far it seems to be trending to look more helpful in getting him re-elected.  But even he may be surprised by that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on March 27, 2020, 12:48:39 PM
Quote from: fromtia on March 27, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 27, 2020, 02:24:44 AM
Well, according to Beijing, the virus is a bio-weapon planted in Wuhan by the US military  ;)

Before we closed, the Libertarians/Alex-Jones/Trump axis of my co workers was vocal about the virus being produced by the Chinese Military, as a rebuttal for Trumps sanctions. As I'm not friends with that cohort really, I haven't kept in touch while we are furloughed, so I'm not sure what the conspiracy du jour is.

Interesting that that derangement is still so popular.

I wonder it they'll re-purposing the FEMA death camps BS into something like 'Democrat state temp hospitals are a cover for exterminations camps for Trump patriots'?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:10:01 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 27, 2020, 12:46:23 PM
Interestingly, so far it seems to be trending to look more helpful in getting him re-elected.  But even he may be surprised by that.

Yeah old crazy uncle Joe has not exactly been out there taking a big leadership role in this time of crisis.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:10:58 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 27, 2020, 12:48:39 PM

I wonder it they'll re-purposing the FEMA death camps BS into something like 'Democrat state temp hospitals are a cover for exterminations camps for Trump patriots'?

See? You don't even live here and yet you know exactly what the story will be if we start having large numbers of deaths.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: fromtia on March 27, 2020, 01:17:20 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:10:01 PM

Yeah old crazy uncle Joe has not exactly been out there taking a big leadership role in this time of crisis.

Yeah The Biden seems to have gone into hiding. Odd. saw one puff piece about his rumination on his running mate and that's about it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on March 27, 2020, 01:23:58 PM
Quote from: fromtia on March 27, 2020, 01:17:20 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:10:01 PM

Yeah old crazy uncle Joe has not exactly been out there taking a big leadership role in this time of crisis.

Yeah The Biden seems to have gone into hiding. Odd. saw one puff piece about his rumination on his running mate and that's about it.

Joe Biden is self-isolating at home in Delaware, but is releasing daily videos from a home studio.

Realistically there's not much else he can be doing right now.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:27:39 PM
Not exactly inspiring. This is his chance to show that Trump is a chump and he is the man.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Camerus on March 27, 2020, 01:32:24 PM
Yeah. Not reassuring that the hope to beat Trump is at this moment cowering in a bunker.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:34:06 PM
I mean I get that for normal people going out with a facemask and protective gear is not possible but surely Joe should be able to get whatever gear he needs to go out and demonstrate how much better the country would be doing right now if he was in charge.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on March 27, 2020, 01:39:30 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:27:39 PM
Not exactly inspiring. This is his chance to show that Trump is a chump and he is the man.

It's called "leading by example".  People are supposed to stay at home - so he's staying at home.

His videos have been pretty good - in particular when compared to a Trump daily briefing. :bleeding:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:41:40 PM
Quote from: Barrister on March 27, 2020, 01:39:30 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:27:39 PM
Not exactly inspiring. This is his chance to show that Trump is a chump and he is the man.

It's called "leading by example".  People are supposed to stay at home - so he's staying at home.

His videos have been pretty good - in particular when compared to a Trump daily briefing. :bleeding:

I suppose. We are just in a position where we really need this dude to win. I have little confidence in him so I want to be reassured :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 27, 2020, 06:19:05 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 27, 2020, 12:46:23 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 11:21:57 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 27, 2020, 02:24:44 AM
Well, according to Beijing, the virus is a bio-weapon planted in Wuhan by the US military  ;)

Iran is saying the same thing. The US military decided that bio-weapons were pretty inneffective and difficult to control (you know...like not spread to your own country and shit) decades ago so this isn't really something we do anymore. Besides even when we were it was more about temporarily disabling young soldiers not very slowly killing old people...and as it turned out even very sick soldiers defend themselves.

Though, to be fair, that at least makes more sense than Trump claiming this is a media conspiracy to keep him from being re-elected.

Interestingly, so far it seems to be trending to look more helpful in getting him re-elected.  But even he may be surprised by that.

The pandemic has just started. Many of his supporters don't even think it's real. We'll see how things look in a few months.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on March 27, 2020, 07:42:36 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 27, 2020, 01:10:58 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 27, 2020, 12:48:39 PM

I wonder it they'll re-purposing the FEMA death camps BS into something like 'Democrat state temp hospitals are a cover for exterminations camps for Trump patriots'?

See? You don't even live here and yet you know exactly what the story will be if we start having large numbers of deaths.

:blush:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on April 15, 2020, 08:15:25 AM
So China is trying to clamp down on otherwise very wholeseome game Animal Crossing: New Horizons:

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2020-04-11-china-bans-sale-of-animal-crossing-new-horizons-after-it-becomes-a-haven-for-hong-kong-protesters

QuoteChina bans sale of Animal Crossing: New Horizons after it becomes a haven for Hong Kong protesters

China is taking on Animal Crossing: New Horizons, blocking its sale on the country's version of ebay.

The Chinese authorities have yet to approve the phenomenally popular Nintendo Switch exclusive for official release, so fans were importing directly from ebay-style websites such as Taobao and Pinduoduo, or buying it digitally by switching their Switch eShop region.

Now, Taobao and Pinduoduo have pulled the game at the request of the Chinese authorities. But why? According to Daniel Ahmad, a senior analyst at Niko Partners who specialises in the Asian video game industry, it's down to two things: Animal Crossing is being used by Hong Kong protesters and others to create politically sensitive user-generated content, and it's a smash hit on social media.

As reported by our friends at US Gamer, Animal Crossing: New Horizons is fast becoming a new way for Hong Kong protesters to fight for democracy amid the Coronavirus lockdown.

Under Chinese law, video games can't contain anything that "threatens China's national unity, sovereignty, or territorial integrity". They can't harm "the nation's reputation, security or interests". They can't promote cults, or "superstitions". They can't "incite obscenity, drug use, violence or gambling" - although loot boxes are, of course, fine - and they can't include anything that "harms public ethics" or China's "culture and traditions". They also can't include any "other content" that might violate China's constitution or law, whatever that may be, and they have to be published in China by a Chinese company.

Despite forcing some online retailers to pull Animal Crossing: New Horizons from their virtual shelves, the Chinese authorities face an uphill struggle banning the game completely. As Ahmad points out, Animal Crossing still works offline and online in China, and it's still available to buy, either from certain stores, or via switching region on the eShop. And people can always contact Taobao sellers privately and buy the game under the counter.

Animal Crossing: New Horizons is a remarkable hit globally, and it seems Chinese gamers are determined to play it. That comes as no surprise, given they've been playing unapproved video games for years. For more on that, check out Chris Tapsell's wonderful investigative feature, Video games in China: beyond the great firewall.


But if that's a concern, surely they would have to ban all online games that permit online chat?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 15, 2020, 08:19:09 AM
QuoteBut if that's a concern, surely they would have to ban all online games that permit online chat?
Sounds like a good tactic for those looking to build distaste towards the government.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 15, 2020, 08:36:55 AM
Wasn't there an article recently about some library in Minecraft that includes all sorts of content that's being censored?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 15, 2020, 08:55:21 AM
The HK dude who posted the forbidden messages and caused the whole game to be shut down is now receiving death threats from affected Mainland players  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on April 15, 2020, 09:06:20 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/14/asia/nnevvy-china-taiwan-twitter-intl-hnk/index.html

QuoteNnevvy: Chinese troll campaign on Twitter exposes a potentially dangerous disconnect with the wider world

Hong Kong (CNN)At first, it seemed like a straightforward Chinese internet controversy.

After Thai actor Vachirawit Chivaaree liked a photo on Twitter that listed Hong Kong as a "country," Chinese fans inundated his Instagram and other social media with comments "correcting" him, and he soon posted an apology for his "lack of caution talking about Hong Kong," which is a semi-autonomous Chinese city, and not an independent nation.

Vachirawit, who goes by the name "Bright," was not the first foreign celebrity or brand to cause offense in China by mischaracterizing issues related to Hong Kong or Taiwan, or by crossing numerous other political red lines familiar to those within China's Great Firewall.

Nor was he the first to try to apologize, only to have more alleged transgressions dredged up by nationalist Chinese web users looking for a new scalp.

For years, Chinese internet nationalists have leapfrogged the Great Firewall to go after the country's critics on banned social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. They've attacked pages run by the Taiwanese government, pro-Uyghur groups, and businesses deemed to have offended China, inundating them with abusive posts and clogging up their timelines.

Following Vachirawit's apology, comments from users on Weibo, a Chinese social media platform, found additional posts by him they disapproved of, as well as comments by his girlfriend, who goes by the name Nnevvy online, in which she appeared to endorse Taiwanese independence (or at least that the island was distinct from mainland China).

They called for a boycott of Vachirawit and his TV show, "2gether," and some began posting attacks against his girlfriend on both Weibo and Twitter under the hashtag #nnevvy.

On the Chinese platform, the hashtag attracted more than 1.4 million posts, and some 4 billion views, according to the Global Times, a state-backed tabloid. "There is no such thing as an idol when it comes to the important matters of our country," the paper quoted one popular post stating.

The expression of similar sentiments on Twitter were met with pushback by Thai fans, who quickly found themselves targeted by the Chinese users, who posted insults demeaning the southeast Asian country and its government. But here the users, used to debating within the limits of the Great Firewall, revealed something of how limited their political worldview is by censorship and propaganda.

In seeking to insult the Thais they were arguing with, they turned to the worst topics they could imagine, but instead of outrage, posts criticizing the Thai government or dredging up historical controversies, were met with glee by the mostly young, politically liberal Thais on Twitter.

"Say it louder!" read one post, after trolls shared photos of the Thammasat University massacre, in which government troops opened fire on leftist student protesters in 1976. Other Thais posted memes laughing at the futility of Chinese trolls attempting to insult them by attacking a government they themselves spend most of their time criticizing.

Hong Kong and Taiwanese posters soon joined in, with former Hong Kong lawmaker Nathan Law writing, "so funny watching the pro-CCP (Chinese Communist Party) online army trying to attack Bright. They think every Thai person must be like them, who love Emperor Xi (Chinese President Xi Jinping). What they don't understand is that Bright's fans are young and progressive, and the pro-CCP army always make the wrong attacks."

As of Tuesday, the #nnevvy hashtag is now overwhelmingly dominated by anti-China posts, as is #China, despite apparent efforts to flood it with positive content about the country. Even on Weibo, most recent posts are from users discussing the failure of the "expedition" with some poking fun at the "little pinks," as nationalist, pro-Communist Party trolls are known online.

While all this may seem petty and inconsequential, the failure of this particular trolling campaign is illustrative of a wider issue. The attitude expressed by the angry "little pinks" engaging in it, an easily offended, touchy nationalism that links love for country with love of the Communist Party and its leaders, has grown substantially in recent years, drowning out -- with the assistance of the censors -- what limited criticism there was of the government on the Chinese internet.

This type of groupthink could have potential real world consequences down the line. While China's leaders do not need to worry about public opinion in the same as their counterparts in a democracy, they cannot ignore it entirely. On issues such as pollution, corruption and food safety, public opinion has had a notable effect on government policy, even as the censors worked to ensure that people did not escalate their online dissatisfaction to offline protests.

However, in the past the authorities have seen patriotic anger run out of their control.

In 2012, large-scale violent anti-Japanese riots broke out in several Chinese cities over a dispute between Beijing and Japan over ownership of the Senkaku Islands, which China calls the Diaoyu Islands, in the East China Sea. Four years later, after a ruling in Manila's favor at the Hague over territorial claims in the South China Sea, protesters targeted Filipino and US businesses, and demanded the government take military action
.

In both instances, intense policing both online and off was able to rein in the protests, but it also exposed the government to a level of public anger they were not used to for not giving in to calls for a more belligerent response to either Japan or the Philippines.

With Hong Kong too, nationalist sentiment fostered by Beijing has in the past created something of a feedback loop. During intense and often violent anti-government protests in the semi-autonomous city last year, Chinese state media emphasized the most extreme elements of the movement and pushed conspiracies about foreign interference.

This led to calls from many online in mainland China for the Chinese military to intervene.

When the Hong Kong government instead gave in to some of the protesters' demands, it was to the understandable shock of many in China whose view of the unrest had been shaped by state media. This led to a backlash against Beijing, with some online asking the obvious question of why Hong Kong protesters, which state media had persistently referred to as rioters, could win concessions?


A similar level of disconnect and anger was seen when pro-democracy parties won big in local elections in Hong Kong, despite the confident predictions of state media and other voices on the Chinese internet that the city's population would reject them.

In both instances, just as the #nnevvy trolls were unable to conceive of anyone not being offended by having their government mocked, the limits of political imagination had been constrained by censorship and propaganda.

While some Hong Kongers and Taiwanese were crowing over the embarrassment of the Chinese trolls, they shouldn't be too complacent about the potential ramifications for any future debate over either territory's sovereignty.

If China's leaders one day find themselves painted into a corner by their own propaganda, unable to pursue or even consider more pragmatic solutions, the results could be potentially disastrous.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 15, 2020, 09:14:55 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 15, 2020, 08:36:55 AM
Wasn't there an article recently about some library in Minecraft that includes all sorts of content that's being censored?
I remember that. I wonder if Minecraft got banned out of it?

Step 1: Find out what games are popular in dictatorships.
Step 2: Post anti dictatorship stuff in the game.
Step 3: Watch as unrest builds in the dictatorship by a teensy bit.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 16, 2020, 02:03:52 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 15, 2020, 08:55:21 AM
The HK dude who posted the forbidden messages and caused the whole game to be shut down is now receiving death threats from affected Mainland players  :lol:

The Chinese government caused the game to be shut down.

And, of course, you would find death threats against someone else's life funny.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on April 16, 2020, 03:01:49 AM
I dunno, it is kind of funny to think of some commie/fascist/nationalist guy nerd raging because the government he supports won't let him play his game anymore.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 16, 2020, 03:14:12 AM
The milk tea alliance.  This term or meme arises from the recent and ongoing internet war between Thais and Mainland Chinese.  A lot of HKers and Taiwanese joined the internet war on the side of the Thais. 

(https://i.imgur.com/dcsJ1mQ.jpg)

Because Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand all have our unique and well-known recipes for milk tea. 

Hong Kong - tea leaves are mixed, and female stockings are used as a filter.  The result is a bitter but smooth milk tea.

Taiwan - first they love putting small and glutinous rice balls in the milk tea.  Then they have infinite numbers of combinations, e.g. all kinds of fruit flavours etc.

Thai - they have a unique, instantly recognisible orange colour and aroma for their milk teas. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on April 16, 2020, 03:21:37 AM
Interesting. May the Tripartite Alliance troll the wumaos into submission.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 16, 2020, 03:29:08 AM
Female stockings?
As opposed to male ones?
You mean actual kinky stockings are used? That sounds... Wasteful.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 16, 2020, 03:32:35 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 16, 2020, 03:29:08 AM
Female stockings?
As opposed to male ones?
You mean actual kinky stockings are used? That sounds... Wasteful.

They use the stockings as a filter.

(https://i.imgur.com/0wrfvRH.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 16, 2020, 03:14:10 PM
Just wait until the calls for Wuhan virus reparations from China begin in earnest. The little pinks and 50 cent army flamewars are going to be epic.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 30, 2020, 01:16:47 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52856876

QuoteTrump targets China over Hong Kong security law

President Donald Trump has announced that he will start to end preferential treatment for Hong Kong in trade and travel, in response to a new security law pushed by Beijing.

He described the Chinese government's moves to introduce the measure in Hong Kong as a "tragedy".

Mr Trump also said he was "terminating" the US relationship with the World Health Organization over Covid-19.

China has told the West to "stop interfering" in Hong Kong.

The territory, a former British colony, enjoys unique freedoms not seen in mainland China. But many people there see the looming security law as bringing an end to Hong Kong's special status, agreed under a 1984 agreement between China and the UK.

There are fears the proposed measure - which has sparked a wave of anti-mainland protests - could end Hong Kong's unique status and make it a crime to undermine Beijing's authority in the territory.

This week, Britain said that if China went forward with the law, it could offer British National (Overseas) passport holders in Hong Kong a path to UK citizenship.

On Friday, the UK Home Office confirmed that up to three million people with BNO status could acquire citizenship in this way - as long as they applied for and were granted a passport.

What did President Trump outline?

Mr Trump said that he no longer considered Hong Kong to be separate from China.

"China has replaced One Country, Two Systems with One Country, One System", Mr Trump told reporters in the White House's Rose Garden, in a prepared statement that attacked China on several fronts.

"This is a tragedy for Hong Kong... China has smothered Hong Kong's freedom," he said.

Mr Trump said sanctions would be imposed on Chinese and Hong Kong officials who were believed by Washington to be involved in eroding the territory's autonomy. He did not outline what form these sanctions would take.

He added that the State Department would revise its travel advisory for Hong Kong in light of "increased danger of surveillance" from China.

The president also said the US would suspend the entry of foreign nationals from China identified by the US as potential security risks. There are fears that this could affect thousands of graduate students
.

No further details were given on Mr Trump's announcement that he would "terminate" the US relationship with the WHO. In April, the US president said he would halt funding to the UN agency because it has "failed in its basic duty" in its response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He accused the WHO of mismanaging and covering up the spread of the virus after it emerged in China.

The Global Times newspaper - whose views are believed to reflect those of China's leaders- called the move towards revoking Hong Kong's special status with the US "recklessly arbitrary".

Hong Kong's Justice Secretary Teresa Cheng told the BBC's Chinese Service earlier on Friday that any threat of sanctions was unacceptable.

"Are the sanctions being imposed with a view to coerce another state to change their policy...? Any such sanctions are not going to benefit anyone," she said.

Adding a new edge to the deteriorating US-China relations

Analysis by Zhaoyin Feng, BBC Chinese

The US removing Hong Kong's special privileges sent a strong warning signal to China, which activists and protesters in the territory will welcome.

The announced measures include not only Hong Kong, but also intellectual property theft and Chinese firms listed in the US.

According to media reports, Washington is expected to revoke more than 3,000 Chinese graduate students' visas. While this accounts for only 1% of the total number of Chinese students in America, Washington's move will open yet another front of the bilateral tensions.

But the separate punishments announced for China may not be as harsh as what had been expected, as indicated in the stock markets' rise after his speech.

Beijing will probably match some of Washington's sanctions and restrictions in a tit-for-tat manner. After a short-lived honeymoon since the trade deal, China and the US appear to be heading towards the abyss at an accelerating speed.

China has proposed security legislation which would make it a crime to undermine Beijing's authority in Hong Kong, and could also see China installing its own security agencies in the region for the first time.

China's parliament has backed the resolution - which now passes to the country's senior leadership.

Full details about exactly what behaviour will be outlawed under the new security law are not yet clear. It is due to be enacted before September.

However, it is expected to criminalise:

- secession - breaking away from China
- subversion - undermining the power or authority of the central government
- terrorism - using violence or intimidation against people
- activities by foreign forces that interfere in Hong Kong

Experts say they fear the law could see people punished for criticising Beijing - as happens in mainland China. For example, Nobel Laureate Liu Xiaobo was jailed for 11 years for subversion after he co-authored a document calling for political reform.

China's foreign ministry in Hong Kong described US criticism of the new draft law as "utterly imperious, unreasonable and shameless".

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on June 11, 2020, 10:29:13 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53003688

QuoteZoom suspends account of US-based Chinese activists after Tiananmen meeting
6 hours ago

Humanitarian China says the call was attended by hundreds of people, including those in China
Video conferencing giant Zoom suspended the account of a group of US-based Chinese activists after they held a meeting on the platform to commemorate the Tiananmen Square crackdown.

The Humanitarian China group said its account was shut just days after the event, which was attended by about 250 people including some activists who called in from China.

Zoom said the account had been closed to comply with "local laws".

The account was later re-activated.

"When a meeting is held across different countries, the participants within those countries are required to comply with their respective local laws," Zoom said in a statement emailed to news outlets.

"We aim to limit the actions we take to those necessary to comply with local law and continuously review and improve our process on these matters," the statement said.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 16, 2020, 07:53:02 AM
Three Indian soldiers killed in border clashes with China. These have been going on for weeks and I feel should be a bigger news story - but I think this is the first loss of life.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 16, 2020, 08:12:06 AM
Interesting that China isn't reporting its casualties. It doesn't want to stir up shit against India at the moment?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on June 16, 2020, 08:15:05 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 16, 2020, 07:53:02 AM
Three Indian soldiers killed in border clashes with China. These have been going on for weeks and I feel should be a bigger news story - but I think this is the first loss of life.

I read the deaths were not caused by gunfire but by sticks and stones? They'd do the world a favour if they skipped WWIII and went straight to WWIV.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 16, 2020, 08:19:43 AM
Yeah I'm not sure if they have deaths or just injuries - they've not been shooting clashes (I would note in the videos I've seen of these clashes over the last few weeks in general the Indian soldiers seem quite restrained and professional while the Chinese soldiers are quite aggressive and behaving like American cops when they think the cameras are off):
QuoteIndia soldiers killed in clash with Chinese forces
    1 hour ago

Three Indian soldiers have been killed in a clash with Chinese forces in Ladakh in the disputed Kashmir region.

The deaths are the first in the disputed border area in at least 45 years, and follow rising military tensions between the nuclear powers.

The Indian army said senior military officials from both sides were "meeting to defuse the situation", adding that both sides suffered casualties.

An Indian army spokesman said the dead were one officer and two soldiers.

China did not confirm any casualties, but accused India of crossing the border in the Galwan Valley.


Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said India had crossed the border twice on Monday, "provoking and attacking Chinese personnel, resulting in serious physical confrontation between border forces on the two sides", AFP news agency reported.

Both sides insist no bullet has been fired in four decades, and the Indian army said on Tuesday that "no shots were fired" in this latest skirmish.


Local media outlets reported that the Indian soldiers were "beaten to death" but there was no confirmation from the military.

China's Global Times newspaper reported that "solemn representations" had been made with India over the incident.


The clash comes amid rising tensions between the two powers, which have brawled along the border in recent weeks but not exchanged any gunfire.

India has accused China of sending thousands of troops into Ladakh's Galwan valley and says China occupies 38,000sq km (about 14,700sq miles) of its territory. Several rounds of talks in the last three decades have failed to resolve the boundary disputes.

The deaths reported on Tuesday are believed to be the first in decades in a confrontation between the two powers. They have fought only one war so far, in 1962, when India suffered a humiliating defeat.

In May, dozens of Indian and Chinese soldiers exchanged physical blows in a clash on the border in the north-eastern state of Sikkim. And in 2017, the two countries clashed in the region after China tried to extend a border road through a disputed plateau.

Their armies - two of the world's largest - come face to face at many points. The two sides are separated by the poorly demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC). Rivers, lakes and snowcaps mean the line can shift, provoking confrontation.

There are several reasons why tensions are rising now - but competing strategic goals lie at the root, and both sides blame each other.

India has built a new road in what experts say is the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh. And India's decision to ramp up infrastructure seems to have infuriated Beijing.

The road could boost Delhi's capability to move men and material rapidly in case of a conflict.


India also disputes part of Kashmir - an ethnically diverse Himalayan region covering about 140,000sq km - with Pakistan.

Quote(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/143C5/production/_106858828_soutikbiswas-nc.png)

Over the past week, Indian media have been reporting that troops from both sides had been gradually moving back from their stand-off positions, and that efforts were under way to de-escalate the tensions along the border. So it will come as a surprise to many to hear of a violent clash in which three Indian soldiers were killed.

The last time the two sides exchanged any gunfire along the border was 1975, when four Indian soldiers were killed in a remote pass in north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh.

The details of the latest skirmish, and the emergency measures being taken to defuse it, are still unclear.

Whatever the result, the latest incident is likely to trigger a fresh wave of anti-China sentiments in India.


It will also present daunting foreign policy and security challenges to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government, which is struggling to contain a surge of Covid-19 infections and revive an economy which looks headed for recession.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 16, 2020, 08:45:22 AM
New reports in India that there are "significantly" more casualties, a number of Indian soldiers were captured and released but the PLA is still holding an Indian major and captain. It feels like this could get a lot worse especially as, at the minute, India probably doesn't have much leverage/room for retaliation. It seems the local mechanisms for de-escalation are working - Generals meeting in Ladakh which is promising.

But Chinese foreign ministry is taking a very strident line in its statements which probably makes that more difficult.

Edit: Indian army have now confirmed at least 20 dead. They also claim there were Chinese casualties, it sounds like at least about 40 dead and injured. All of these numbers seem implausibly high for a sticks and stones brawl :mellow:

If it was just a brawl I woner if some of the casualties are actually people falling and not being able to be rescued?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 16, 2020, 05:18:44 PM
Guardian story is crazy:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/india-says-soldiers-killed-on-disputed-himalayan-border-with-china?CMP=share_btn_tw
QuoteAn Indian commanding officer was pushed and fell into the river gorge, sources said, leading to reinforcements being called and up to 600 troops from both armies fighting hand-to-hand, with stones and iron rods as weapons, until late in the night, with several men from both sides falling to their deaths. No shots were fired.

Tensions between the two sides had been escalating since late April, after China's encroachment of thousands of troops into disputed territory along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), who set up camps and brought over artillery and vehicles and caught India off-guard. Chinese soldiers ignored repeated verbal warnings to leave, triggering shouting matches, stone-throwing and fistfights in key border areas, but on 6 June there was a meeting of senior Indian and Chinese military commanders and a commitment to disengagement was made on both sides.

However, tensions remained high as Chinese troops had still not withdrawn from certain areas of disputed territory, including Galwan Valley. Monday's fatal clashes happened close to Patrolling Point 14 in the Galwan Valley, near the LAC. Chinese PLA troops had reportedly begun to retreat east from the area as agreed, but then turned back and were then confronted by Indian troops patrolling the area.
:blink:

I am slightly terrified at two nuclear-armed, emerging super-powers basically having brawls between lads along their border :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on June 16, 2020, 06:14:30 PM
So on the youtube channel Voices from the Past there is a video of an account of a Chinese Monk traveling to India in the 4th Century AD in the Gupta period. In the comments below one Indian noted how wonderful their two great ancient civilizations were and said "love to China from India" to which a Chinese commenter repied: "Love from China! We want our territory back!" and another Indian immediately responded with "we want our territory back to"

Ah another international peace movement falling apart after its first member.

I have to say I have never before seen somebody expressing both love and a territorial demand juxtaposed like that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 16, 2020, 08:23:05 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 16, 2020, 06:14:30 PM
So on the youtube channel Voices from the Past there is a video of an account of a Chinese Monk traveling to India in the 4th Century AD in the Gupta period. In the comments below one Indian noted how wonderful their two great ancient civilizations were and said "love to China from India" to which a Chinese commenter repied: "Love from China! We want our territory back!" and another Indian immediately responded with "we want our territory back to"

Ah another international peace movement falling apart after its first member.

I have to say I have never before seen somebody expressing both love and a territorial demand juxtaposed like that.

What's wrong with that? :unsure:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on June 16, 2020, 08:33:19 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 16, 2020, 05:18:44 PM
I am slightly terrified at two nuclear-armed, emerging super-powers basically having brawls between lads along their border :ph34r:
Maybe they're practicing the post-nuclear-exchange tactics.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 16, 2020, 08:45:23 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 16, 2020, 08:23:05 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 16, 2020, 06:14:30 PM
So on the youtube channel Voices from the Past there is a video of an account of a Chinese Monk traveling to India in the 4th Century AD in the Gupta period. In the comments below one Indian noted how wonderful their two great ancient civilizations were and said "love to China from India" to which a Chinese commenter repied: "Love from China! We want our territory back!" and another Indian immediately responded with "we want our territory back to"

Ah another international peace movement falling apart after its first member.

I have to say I have never before seen somebody expressing both love and a territorial demand juxtaposed like that.

What's wrong with that? :unsure:

Nothing. 54 40 or fight!  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on June 16, 2020, 10:23:56 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 16, 2020, 08:23:05 PM
What's wrong with that? :unsure:

I mean you cannot really be more hostile than demanding another country's territory :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 17, 2020, 08:23:17 PM
I am the one person here who has a non-zero chance of seeing PLA troops in rioting gear in action before my eyes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 17, 2020, 08:31:45 PM
Even if you're right about China not invading and occupying a foreign country, any of us could potentially travel to China. :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 17, 2020, 08:35:25 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on June 17, 2020, 08:31:45 PM
Even if you're right about China not invading and occupying a foreign country, any of us could potentially travel to China. :contract:

That's true.  But still, I have a far higher chance of seeing that happen. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on June 17, 2020, 09:02:28 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 17, 2020, 08:23:17 PM
I am the one person here who has a non-zero chance of seeing PLA troops in rioting gear in action before my eyes.

Yeah...none of us are Indian.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 19, 2020, 09:14:48 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/mbVJmx9.jpg)

Indian side claimed the PLA used this weapon in the brawl. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 19, 2020, 09:19:57 AM
Fucking hell PLA :blink: :ph34r:

Sir Lawrence Freedman (Professor of War Studies) pointed out that this isn't the first time China's been involved in unusual forms of border conflict. Apparently during clashes on the Soviet border in 1969, one PLA division lined up and mooned their Soviet opponents over the border :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 19, 2020, 09:24:26 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 19, 2020, 09:19:57 AM
Fucking hell PLA :blink: :ph34r:

Sir Lawrence Freedman (Professor of War Studies) pointed out that this isn't the first time China's been involved in unusual forms of border conflict. Apparently during clashes on the Soviet border in 1969, one PLA division lined up and mooned their Soviet opponents over the border :lol:

[Languish] It wasn't a division, it was a reinforced mechanized brigade with an engineering battalion attached from the corps. [/Languish]
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 19, 2020, 04:47:14 PM
Interesting:
QuoteAustralia's government and institutions are being targeted by ongoing sophisticated state-based cyber hacks, Prime Minister Scott Morrison says.

Mr Morrison said the cyber attacks were widespread, covering "all levels of government" as well as essential services and businesses.

He declined to identify a specific state actor and said no major personal data breaches had been made.

The attacks have happened over many months and are increasing, he said.

The prime minister said his announcement on Friday was intended to raise public awareness and to urge businesses to improve their defences.

But he stressed that "malicious" activity was also being seen globally, making it not unique to Australia.

By all accounts the state is China. He said he wasn't making this public to raise alarm, but to raise awareness and had particular warnings about healthcare and service providers needing to improve their security.

Since Australia proposed an international inquiry into covid-19 (an attempt to offer a way out for China and Trump during the mutual accusations phase), China has imposed tariffs, stopped beef imports from Australia and warned Chinese tourists and students against travel to Australia due to racism. Australia has said they won't give into Chinese "bullying". Hopefully there'll be international support for Australia and I think there may need to be more looked at in the West on how to disentangle ourselves a bit from China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on June 19, 2020, 05:10:04 PM
Yes. Our attempts to work with China through mutual benefit and interests. China clearly doesn't want this so yeah it is probably time to look for other options. It is really too bad because if that had worked we really would have created a more peaceful and secure world.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 19, 2020, 07:07:06 PM
Chinese culture is less concerned about an objective truth.  Confucius was all about fixing human relationships.  Harmony is achieved when everybody is virtuous and agrees on who the boss is.  Everything else is subordinate to that goal, including any objective truth that gets in the way.  So all truth commissions are motivated by bad politics. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 19, 2020, 10:42:39 PM
China is all about hierarchy.  The concept of "win-win" is alien to them, and the government does not believe in comparative advantage.

The key to the next 50 years is going to be managing Chin's decline.  The Chinese government and people are not going to handle it well, but a firm international response will keep them from acting on their frustrations.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 27, 2020, 04:20:31 AM
QuoteChina has enlisted a squad of mixed martial arts fighters into its border militia ranks, according to state media.

The 20 MMA fighters were from the Enbo Fight Club in Sichuan province in the country's southwest and would form the Plateau Resistance Tibetan Mastiffs to be based in Lhasa, the capital of the Tibet autonomous region, state broadcaster CCTV reported on June 20.

The club is known for producing fighters who go on to compete in international tournaments such as the Ultimate Fighting Championship in the United States.

The announcement came after the deadliest clashes in decades between Chinese and Indian troops along the two countries' contested Himalayan border.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3090840/china-recruits-mma-fighters-tibet-border-militia
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 27, 2020, 04:41:18 AM
I thought MMA was hated in China?
I remember the incident some years ago with the MMA fighter wiping the floor with some tai chi master and being destroyed for siding with the west against Chinese culture etc...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 27, 2020, 04:46:07 AM
Quote from: Tyr on June 27, 2020, 04:41:18 AM
I thought MMA was hated in China?
I remember the incident some years ago with the MMA fighter wiping the floor with some tai chi master and being destroyed for siding with the west against Chinese culture etc...

I am not aware that MMA is hated.

Yeah, they are still doing these MMA vs kung fu master matches.  Almost invariably, the MMA guys completely dominate the kung fu guys.  I am talking about knocking out their opponents in one punch etc. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 06, 2020, 01:09:31 PM
Again - I do not understand this approach. "Become more dependent on us or there'll be consequences (which will be even graver if once you're more dependent on us)" :blink:
QuoteChina envoy warns of 'consequences' if Britain rejects Huawei
Liu Xiaoming cautions it is 'not in UK's interest' to make an enemy of Beijing
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on July 06, 2020, 01:16:13 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 06, 2020, 01:09:31 PM
Again - I do not understand this approach. "Become more dependent on us or there'll be consequences (which will be even graver if once you're more dependent on us)" :blink:
QuoteChina envoy warns of 'consequences' if Britain rejects Huawei
Liu Xiaoming cautions it is 'not in UK's interest' to make an enemy of Beijing

Didn't that approach work for the UK against China in the 19th century?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 01:16:44 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 06, 2020, 01:09:31 PM
Again - I do not understand this approach. "Become more dependent on us or there'll be consequences (which will be even graver if once you're more dependent on us)" :blink:
QuoteChina envoy warns of 'consequences' if Britain rejects Huawei
Liu Xiaoming cautions it is 'not in UK's interest' to make an enemy of Beijing

It's not rocket science.  Beijing is threatening British jobs, incomes and profits.  People like those things.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 06, 2020, 01:42:24 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 01:16:44 PM
It's not rocket science.  Beijing is threatening British jobs, incomes and profits.  People like those things.
Sure. But they're threatening that so that more British jobs, incomes and profits are dependent on Chinese goodwill. It just seems incredibly counterproductive to me.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 01:46:43 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 06, 2020, 01:42:24 PM
Sure. But they're threatening that so that more British jobs, incomes and profits are dependent on Chinese goodwill. It just seems incredibly counterproductive to me.

How is this different in that way from any other discussion of international trade and investment? 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 06, 2020, 01:48:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 01:46:43 PM
How is this different in that way from any other discussion of international trade and investment?
How is it similar? :mellow:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 01:50:05 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 06, 2020, 01:48:38 PM
How is it similar? :mellow:

If you do this/don't stop this, bad things will happen.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 06, 2020, 01:55:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 01:50:05 PM
If you do this/don't stop this, bad things will happen.
Okay. I just think this is a little bit more "nice country you got here, shame if something happened to it":
Quote"We want to be your friend. We want to be your partner. But if you want to make China a hostile country, you will have to bear the consequences."

Normally international trade and investment is positioned as win-win and how there are opportunities for both sides, and less if you take x procurement decision in the telecoms sector you will "bear consequences" from the rest of our country's business community.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 01:59:09 PM
I agree that making it personal is out of the ordinary for this field, but the dynamic is nothing new.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 03:08:47 PM
QuoteUPDATE 3-Tech companies suspend processing Hong Kong govt data requests
4:02 PM ET 7/6/20 | Reuters
UPDATE 3-Tech companies suspend processing Hong Kong govt data requests

(Adds Google)

By Katie Paul

July 6 (Reuters) - Facebook Inc, Google Inc and Twitter Inc suspended processing government requests for user data in Hong Kong, they said on Monday, following China's establishment of a sweeping new national security law for the semi-autonomous city.

Facebook, which also owns WhatsApp and Instagram, said in a statement it was "pausing" reviews for all of its services "pending further assessment of the National Security Law."

Google, a unit of Alphabet Inc, and Twitter said they suspended their reviews of data requests from Hong Kong authorities immediately after the law went into effect last week. Twitter cited "grave concerns" about the law's implications.

Google said it would continue reviewing Hong Kong government requests for removals of user-generated content from its services. Twitter declined to comment, while Facebook did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Social networks often apply localized restrictions to posts that violate local laws but not their own rules for acceptable speech. Facebook restricted 394 such pieces of content in Hong Kong in the second half of 2019, up from eight in the first half of the year, according to its transparency report.

Tech companies have long operated freely in Hong Kong, a regional financial hub where internet access has been unaffected by the firewall imposed in mainland China, which blocks Google, Twitter and Facebook.

China's parliament passed the new national security legislation for the semi-autonomous city last week, setting the stage for the most radical changes to the former British colony's way of life since it returned to Chinese rule 23 years ago.

Some Hong Kong residents said they were reviewing their previous posts on social media related to pro-democracy protests and the security law, and proactively deleting ones they thought would be viewed as sensitive.

The legislation pushed China further along a collision course with the United States, with which it is already in disputes over trade, the South China sea and the coronavirus. (Reporting by Katie Paul in San Francisco; Additional reporting by Akanksha Rana in Bengaluru and Sheila Dang in New York; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Richard Chang)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on July 06, 2020, 09:57:34 PM
I think the time to debate the National Security Law is over.  It is being enforced, and it is here to stay.  Don't like it?  Leave.  Those who stay, however, need to adapt and live with it.  The question isn't "will it scare foreign investors away?"  It is "how do we attract foreign investors and keep them here given that the law is here to stay?"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 10:37:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 06, 2020, 09:57:34 PM
I think the time to debate the National Security Law is over.  It is being enforced, and it is here to stay.  Don't like it?  Leave.  Those who stay, however, need to adapt and live with it.  The question isn't "will it scare foreign investors away?"  It is "how do we attract foreign investors and keep them here given that the law is here to stay?"

Those are both questions.

The time to debate the international response to the National Security Law is beginning.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 06, 2020, 10:41:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 10:37:04 PMThose are both questions.

The time to debate the international response to the National Security Law is beginning.
Yeah and there was no time to debate or prepare for the National Security Law because it was prepared in secret and then published once it was finalised and approved. So actually digesting it has only just begun as well.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on July 07, 2020, 01:16:24 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 10:37:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 06, 2020, 09:57:34 PM
I think the time to debate the National Security Law is over.  It is being enforced, and it is here to stay.  Don't like it?  Leave.  Those who stay, however, need to adapt and live with it.  The question isn't "will it scare foreign investors away?"  It is "how do we attract foreign investors and keep them here given that the law is here to stay?"

Those are both questions.

The time to debate the international response to the National Security Law is beginning.

I am sure you guys have better things to do, like the international response to COVID 19, global warming, Brexit, racial stuff, gays rights, women, dead elephants etc etc. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zoupa on July 07, 2020, 02:50:41 AM
All those things are related to how we deal with China is asshoe going forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p8Aq5BM9io
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on July 07, 2020, 03:53:22 AM
QuoteHong Kong police have been granted sweeping new powers, including the ability to conduct raids without a warrant and secretly monitor suspects, after controversial security laws were imposed on the city by the Chinese central government.

The powers allow for the confiscation of property related to national security offences, and allow senior police to order the takedown of online material they believe breaches the law. The city's chief executive can grant police permission to intercept communications and conduct covert surveillance. Penalties include HKD$100,000 (£10,300) fines and up to two years in prison.

They also allow police to enter and search premises for evidence without a warrant "under exceptional circumstances", to restrict people under investigation from leaving Hong Kong, and to demand information from foreign and Taiwanese political organisations and agents on their Hong Kong-related activities.

:showoff:


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on July 07, 2020, 08:26:16 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 07, 2020, 01:16:24 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 10:37:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 06, 2020, 09:57:34 PM
I think the time to debate the National Security Law is over.  It is being enforced, and it is here to stay.  Don't like it?  Leave.  Those who stay, however, need to adapt and live with it.  The question isn't "will it scare foreign investors away?"  It is "how do we attract foreign investors and keep them here given that the law is here to stay?"

Those are both questions.

The time to debate the international response to the National Security Law is beginning.

I am sure you guys have better things to do, like the international response to COVID 19, global warming, Brexit, racial stuff, gays rights, women, dead elephants etc etc.

Mono, this post should good for a few more loyalty points on your social credit score.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on July 07, 2020, 08:27:08 AM
Is there a max to the score?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on July 07, 2020, 09:10:58 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 07, 2020, 01:16:24 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 10:37:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 06, 2020, 09:57:34 PM
I think the time to debate the National Security Law is over.  It is being enforced, and it is here to stay.  Don't like it?  Leave.  Those who stay, however, need to adapt and live with it.  The question isn't "will it scare foreign investors away?"  It is "how do we attract foreign investors and keep them here given that the law is here to stay?"

Those are both questions.

The time to debate the international response to the National Security Law is beginning.

I am sure you guys have better things to do, like the international response to COVID 19, global warming, Brexit, racial stuff, gays rights, women, dead elephants etc etc.

Xi the Pooh wants to be seen as a super power. Being ignored is not something that a superpower usually want.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on July 07, 2020, 09:18:15 AM
Quote from: The Brain on July 07, 2020, 08:27:08 AM
Is there a max to the score?

Whatever score Xi JinPing has.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on July 07, 2020, 09:36:16 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 07, 2020, 09:18:15 AM
Quote from: The Brain on July 07, 2020, 08:27:08 AM
Is there a max to the score?

Whatever score Xi JinPing has.

I'll be very surprised if Xi and the politburo members have scores.  They are above such things. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on July 07, 2020, 09:43:59 AM
So much for a communist paradise.  :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on July 07, 2020, 09:48:41 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 07, 2020, 09:43:59 AM
So much for a communist paradise.  :(

A big part of having authority is ability to follow a different set of rules without suffering any consequence.  But of course you know that already. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on July 07, 2020, 09:49:56 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 07, 2020, 09:48:41 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 07, 2020, 09:43:59 AM
So much for a communist paradise.  :(

A big part of having authority is ability to follow a different set of rules without suffering any consequence.  But of course you know that already.

Clearly a big cultural difference we have here is that we at least like to pretend this is not what we want, and thus make laws against it (which then we largely ignore but still).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on July 07, 2020, 10:10:55 AM
I may be wrong, but as far as I know, the scoring system is never explained clearly.  That is deliberate.  You need to guess how it works.  You don't know for sure what works and what doesn't.  That makes people think twice before they try anything, because they never know what they are going to do is going to harm them or not. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on July 07, 2020, 10:44:14 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 07, 2020, 10:10:55 AM
I may be wrong, but as far as I know, the scoring system is never explained clearly.  That is deliberate.  You need to guess how it works.  You don't know for sure what works and what doesn't.  That makes people think twice before they try anything, because they never know what they are going to do is going to harm them or not.

:lol:

What a paradise.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 07, 2020, 10:46:20 AM
From what I've read there are obvious things like committing crimes and not paying debts.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 07, 2020, 11:43:20 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 07, 2020, 03:53:22 AM
QuoteHong Kong police have been granted sweeping new powers, including the ability to conduct raids without a warrant and secretly monitor suspects, after controversial security laws were imposed on the city by the Chinese central government.

The powers allow for the confiscation of property related to national security offences, and allow senior police to order the takedown of online material they believe breaches the law. The city's chief executive can grant police permission to intercept communications and conduct covert surveillance. Penalties include HKD$100,000 (£10,300) fines and up to two years in prison.

They also allow police to enter and search premises for evidence without a warrant "under exceptional circumstances", to restrict people under investigation from leaving Hong Kong, and to demand information from foreign and Taiwanese political organisations and agents on their Hong Kong-related activities.

:showoff:

Ausweis bitte!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on July 07, 2020, 12:10:42 PM
Sounds like one of those "throw you in jail for whatever we want" laws.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 07, 2020, 12:53:18 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 07, 2020, 12:10:42 PM
Sounds like one of those "throw you in jail for whatever we want" laws.

that's because it's that type of regime
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on July 07, 2020, 01:38:12 PM
And now Hong Kong is getting integrated. Brave resistance fighters must build up their strength to repel PLA troops with melee combat. We should support them by posting this emoji  :showoff:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on July 08, 2020, 07:36:04 AM
https://www.axios.com/china-hong-kong-law-global-activism-ff1ea6d1-0589-4a71-a462-eda5bea3f78f.html

QuoteWith new security law, China outlaws global activism

The draconian security law that Beijing forced upon Hong Kong last week contains an article making it illegal for anyone in the world to promote democratic reform for Hong Kong.

Why it matters: China has long sought to crush organized dissent abroad through quiet threats and coercion. Now it has codified that practice into law — potentially forcing people and companies around the world to choose between speaking freely and ever stepping foot in Hong Kong again.

What's happening: Article 38 of the national security law states, "This Law shall apply to offences under this Law committed against the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region from outside the Region by a person who is not a permanent resident of the Region."

In other words, every provision of the law applies to everyone outside of Hong Kong — including you.

Several experts in Chinese and international law confirmed this interpretation of the law to Axios.

"It literally applies to every single person on the planet. This is how it reads," said Wang Minyao, a Chinese-American lawyer based in New York. "If I appear at a congressional committee in D.C. and say something critical, that literally would be a violation of this law."

This means that anyone advocating democracy in Hong Kong, or criticizing the governments in Hong Kong or Beijing, could potentially face consequences if they step foot in Hong Kong, or have assets or family members in Hong Kong.

What they're saying: "One of the main purposes of having the national security law is to quash the international front of the movement," said Nathan Law, a Hong Kong pro-democracy lawmaker, who spoke to Axios after he fled the city last week.

"For Hong Kong, we have to understand that it is the foreground of a very global fight, authoritarianism versus democracy."

He and other leaders of the pro-democracy movement, including Joshua Wong, have traveled the globe in recent years to promote their cause, including meeting with U.S. lawmakers — an activity that the new law prohibits.

The big picture: This marks a historically unprecedented expansion of extraterritoriality — the application of a country's domestic laws abroad.

U.S. counterterrorism laws have a degree of extraterritoriality, but those laws are intended to fight actual violent terrorism — not free speech — and are not used to crush peaceful political organizing.

The new law codifies and extends to non-Chinese nationals the extraterritorial practices that the Chinese Communist Party has long applied to its own citizens abroad.

Earlier this year a Chinese student at the University of Minnesota was sentenced to six months in prison after returning home to China for the summer, for a tweet criticizing Xi Jinping that he posted while in the U.S.

Chinese officials have also threatened people of Chinese heritage abroad who are no longer Chinese citizens, in some cases kidnapping them, taking them back to China, and forcing them to renounce their foreign citizenship so that Chinese authorities can prosecute them as Chinese nationals without foreign involvement.

Beijing is also increasingly using market access as a form of leverage to silence foreign companies and organizations.

Hollywood movie studios make sure their films don't offend China's censors so they can retain access to China's massive domestic movie market.

After Beijing complained, Marriott fired an employee who used a company social media account to like a post about Tibet.

Until now, this was informal coercion. Now it's the law.

An example: The tweet that Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey posted last year in the support of the Hong Kong protests got the NBA in a lot of trouble in China.
That tweet would likely be illegal under the new law.

What's at stake: The point of the law isn't necessarily to immediately launch a sweeping global dragnet, but rather "to put the fear of God into all China critics the world over," wrote Donald Clarke, a professor Chinese law at George Washington University, in an analysis of the law.

"It's the obsession with seizing the narrative-setting power," said Alvin Cheung, a legal scholar at New York University.

What to watch: Hong Kong authorities may begin to detain or arrest people of any nationality upon entry to Hong Kong for their actions or speech elsewhere — or even issue extradition requests for major targets.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on July 08, 2020, 07:37:30 AM
 :showoff:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on July 08, 2020, 09:50:59 AM
I tend to think China has seen that subtle pressure on foreign corporations (including, and especially, in the West) to support the "one-China" policy, even those corporations only do so themselves in a subtle fashion, is working.  Even if they only do it to maintain profits and market access.  And the PRC is likely being more and more emboldened by that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 08, 2020, 08:34:46 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 08, 2020, 09:50:59 AM
I tend to think China has seen that subtle pressure on foreign corporations (including, and especially, in the West) to support the "one-China" policy, even those corporations only do so themselves in a subtle fashion, is working.  Even if they only do it to maintain profits and market access.  And the PRC is likely being more and more emboldened by that.
Yeah. Not just that issue - I think a lot about Arsenal's support for BLM and its statement that "as a football club, Arsenal has always adhered to the principle of not involving itself in politics" after Ozil's statement on Xinjiang.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: FunkMonk on July 08, 2020, 09:34:57 PM
There was a similar situation regarding the NBA last year. The general manager of the Houston Rockets tweeted support for Hong Kong protestors and the NBA quickly muzzled him.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on July 09, 2020, 04:46:22 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on July 08, 2020, 09:34:57 PM
There was a similar situation regarding the NBA last year. The general manager of the Houston Rockets tweeted support for Hong Kong protestors and the NBA quickly muzzled him.

IIRC it was slightly different. It was his team, the Rockets, the one that chastised him, not the league, which tried to support him without inciting further Chinese anger, in a tough balancing act which I guess left everyone unhappy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 13, 2020, 10:47:05 AM
Re threat-making extraordinary piece on Huawei in the Times:
QuoteThe Chinese telecoms firm wants to strike a deal with Boris Johnson to delay its removal from the mobile phone network until after the next election in 2025, in the hope that a future government might reverse the decision. In return, Huawei will pledge to maintain its equipment, which is also used in the 2G, 3G and 4G networks.

BT and Vodafone have said that stripping out Huawei equipment before 2025 could lead to a loss of phone coverage.

Sources close to the company say Huawei will not make an explicit threat to cease maintenance. It will streess "the costs of maintaining those networks" and make the point that "without Huawei there will be blackouts."

I mean briefing a paper about it seems like a fairly explicit non-explicit threat :mellow:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 13, 2020, 12:20:05 PM
the faster we stop buying chinese the better
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on July 13, 2020, 01:18:41 PM
Yeah, I think some people forgot national security issues in the name of free market.  Some industries need to be protected, even if you have to tolerate some inefficiencies because of that.  It's not a free market anyway if coercion is involved, and it seems like economic interdependence is used for coercive purposes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on July 13, 2020, 03:40:11 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 13, 2020, 01:18:41 PM
Yeah, I think some people forgot national security issues in the name of free market.  Some industries need to be protected, even if you have to tolerate some inefficiencies because of that.  It's not a free market anyway if coercion is involved, and it seems like economic interdependence is used for coercive purposes.

a classic case of the capitalist selling the rope with which he'll be hanged
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on July 15, 2020, 07:26:46 AM
Supposed footage of Uighurs being deported: https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/hriowi/drone_footage_of_uighurs_being_taken_away/

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Maladict on July 15, 2020, 07:36:29 AM
I'm sure Mono can explain to us why this is perfectly fine and we should trust the authorities to do the right thing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on July 15, 2020, 07:38:13 AM
Quote from: Syt on July 15, 2020, 07:26:46 AM
Supposed footage of Uighurs being deported: https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/hriowi/drone_footage_of_uighurs_being_taken_away/

These poor people have the double disadvantage of being a Muslim minority oppressed by a nominally communist regime, so neither the left nor the right can be bothered to protest on their behalf.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on July 15, 2020, 07:47:31 AM
Quote from: Maladict on July 15, 2020, 07:36:29 AM
I'm sure Mono can explain to us why this is perfectly fine and we should trust the authorities to do the right thing.

Huh?  This didn't happen in Hong Kong, so why should I say anything?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 15, 2020, 08:13:54 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2020, 01:59:09 PM
I agree that making it personal is out of the ordinary for this field, but the dynamic is nothing new.
Speaking of which Chinese state TV had someone calling for the "public and painful humiliation" of the UK over the Huawei decision. Which I don't think typically occurs during trade talks :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Maladict on July 15, 2020, 08:30:45 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 15, 2020, 07:47:31 AM
Quote from: Maladict on July 15, 2020, 07:36:29 AM
I'm sure Mono can explain to us why this is perfectly fine and we should trust the authorities to do the right thing.

Huh?  This didn't happen in Hong Kong, so why should I say anything?

That's what I thought  :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on July 15, 2020, 09:06:23 AM
Why would he care? He's Han Chinese. The winning race.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on July 15, 2020, 09:24:45 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on July 15, 2020, 09:06:23 AM
Why would he care? He's Han Chinese. The winning race.

Obviously white is the winning race :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on July 15, 2020, 09:44:51 AM
I disagree. China is winning.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on July 15, 2020, 09:49:01 AM
They certainly have more tiger blood.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on July 15, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on July 15, 2020, 09:44:51 AM
I disagree. China is winning.

Yeah right.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on July 15, 2020, 03:25:34 PM
Mono thinks it's 1920.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on July 27, 2020, 10:08:04 AM
John Oliver on China and the Uighurs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17oCQakzIl8
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on October 14, 2020, 06:03:43 AM
QuoteChina insists Genghis Khan exhibit not use words 'Genghis Khan'
Museum in Nantes pulls show after intervention by Beijing, which comes as Communist party hardens discrimination against ethnic Mongols

A French museum has postponed an exhibit about the Mongol emperor Genghis Khan citing interference by the Chinese government, which it accuses of trying to rewrite history.

The Château des ducs de Bretagne history museum in the western city of Nantes said it was putting the show about the fearsome 13th century leader on hold for over three years.

The museum's director, Bertrand Guillet, said: "We made the decision to stop this production in the name of the human, scientific and ethical values that we defend."

It said the Chinese authorities demanded that certain words, including "Genghis Khan," "Empire" and "Mongol" be taken out of the show. Subsequently they asked for power over exhibition brochures, legends and maps.

The spat comes as the Chinese government has hardened its discrimination against ethnic Mongols, many of whom live in the northern province of Inner Mongolia.

The exhibit was planned in collaboration with the Inner Mongolia Museum in Hohhot, China. But tensions arose, the Nantes museum said, when the Chinese Bureau of Cultural Heritage pressured the museum for changes to the original plan, "including notably elements of biased rewriting of Mongol culture in favour of a new national narrative".

The museum branded it "censorship" and said it underlined a "hardening ... of the position of the Chinese government against the Mongolian minority".

The Chinese consulate in Paris did not immediately return calls for comment.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 14, 2020, 07:00:38 AM
Huh. Never thought I would ever find myself siding with Genghis Khan against China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 14, 2020, 08:28:39 AM
I wonder if the CCP knows its days are numbered and is playing the long game. Making it so when China is in a place to collapse again, there are no fringe nationalities to secede.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 15, 2020, 06:59:50 AM
So lots of officials in Taiwan have recently been saying lots of very friendly things about India and Indian culture - it feels like something's up :hmm: :mellow:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 01, 2020, 06:06:25 AM
The escalation of Chinese issues with Australia is really incredible and probably a warning for other countries:
QuoteChina fires back at Morrison, doubles down on war crimes accusation
By Eryk Bagshaw and Anthony Galloway
Updated November 30, 2020 — 6.53pmfirst published at 5.39pm

China's Foreign Ministry has said Australia should be ashamed of its war crimes in Afghanistan after Prime Minister Scott Morrison demanded an apology over an inflammatory social media post from an official Chinese account.

Twitter was on Monday scrambling to assess whether a doctored image shared by a deputy director in China's Foreign Ministry had violated its terms of service after Mr Morrison called a press conference to demand the post be taken down, labelling it "repugnant" and "truly offensive".


The image purported to show a special forces soldier slitting the throat of an Afghan child with its head wrapped in an Australian flag as it cradled a lamb.

More than four hours after Mr Morrison's request for the image to be taken down, the social media giant had yet to respond. It has censored multiple replies to the image for violating its Twitter rules but not the original post itself.

Twitter has not responded to requests for comment. The Morrison government is preparing to escalate its response to the company's San Francisco headquarters on Tuesday if its demands are not met.

The post came three days after China hit Australia's $45 billion wine industry with a tariff of more than 200 per cent, in a major escalation of Beijing's trade strikes on billions of dollars worth of Australian exports.


In his strongest comments on any Chinese government action since he became Prime Minister, a visibly angry Mr Morrison said the Chinese government should be "totally ashamed of the post", accused the Communist Party of being immature and said he hoped this "awful event may lead to a reset" in the relationship.

(https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.34%2C$multiply_1.0582%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_43/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/5d6a62b4c6bbd18beeef06fc7c5655c9889448b0)
Lijian Zhao's tweet.Credit:Twitter/@zlj517

"It diminishes them in the world's eyes," he said. "It is an absolutely outrageous and disgusting slur. Australia is seeking an apology from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and we are seeking it be removed from Twitter."

In a swipe at Australia's human rights record after the release of the Brereton inquiry report into alleged war crimes committed by Australian soldiers in Afghanistan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman and information department deputy director Zhao Lijian called for Australia to be held accountable.

"These reports point to the hypocrisy of some Western countries who like to consider themselves as guardians of human rights and freedom," Mr Zhao said last week. The comments were later supported and repeated by the Russian Foreign Ministry.


China's Foreign Ministry on Monday evening fired back at Mr Morrison, claiming Australia should be "ashamed" of its record in Afghanistan.

"The Australian side is reacting so strongly to my colleague's Twitter," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said. "Does that mean that they think the coldblooded murder of Afghans is justified? The Australian government should feel ashamed of this; they owe an explanation to the world and they should solemnly pledge such crimes will not be repeated."

Mr Morrison said the government-initiated Brereton report showed that Australia had honest and transparent processes for war crimes to be investigated. "That is what a free, democratic, liberal country does," he said.

The report found up to 39 Afghans had been murdered by Australian soldiers.


China has detained up to 1 million Muslim Uighurs in re-education camps in Xinjiang and been criticised for its crackdown in Hong Kong. New national security laws imposed by Beijing on the former British colony in April punish dissent with sentences of up to life in prison.

Labor's foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong offered bipartisan support to Mr Morrison's comments.

"This is not the behaviour of a responsible, mature international power," she said. "These tactics will be met with unified condemnation in the Australian community."

The escalation is the latest instalment of China's attempt to target Australia's human rights record as it simultaneously ramps up trade pressure.

Ahead of the release of the Brereton inquiry on November 19, the Chinese embassy had flagged with Nine News, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age that it would use multilateral forums to pursue Australia's record on Indigenous affairs and aged care. The threats were made at the same time as embassy officials warned the government to change course as they delivered a list of 14 grievances with Australia across the national security, diplomacy and business sectors.

Department of Foreign Affairs secretary Frances Adamson called China's ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, on Monday to express Australia's deep disappointment with the post, but Mr Cheng has yet to be formally summoned by the government.

The doctored image was created by Wuheqilin, a self-styled Chinese "wolf warrior" artist, who came to prominence for his pro-Beijing illustrations during the Hong Kong protests last year. After the furious reaction from Australia, Mr Zhao pinned the tweet to the top of his social media feed, so it is the first post people searching his account see.

Herve Lemahieu, director of the power and diplomacy program at the Lowy Institute, said Mr Morrison should not have responded to the "smear" and "low blow" from a relatively junior Chinese official on Twitter.

He said Australia's response was "overly emotive and defensive" and played right into China's hands.

"We shouldn't deploy our top asset - head of government - to respond to a propaganda post from some junior level official in the Chinese Foreign Ministry. These guys seek attention and we have given it to them," Mr Lemahieu said.

"I would describe it as a smear and a sub-tweet, and I didn't think it merited a response from the Prime Minister. It's beneath the Prime Minister to have to react to that."

Mr Lemahieu said he believed the tweet was used as "bait to lure a response", and also to switch the debate from China's "blatant violation of the economic rules-based order" by imposing unfair tariffs on Australia.

"That [the tariffs] is the big story, and to me it looks like they are trying to switch the subjects and make Australia look like the villain. We shouldn't have fallen for it," he said.

"It is not a coincidence the Russians got involved as well. I wouldn't have been surprised if they coordinated their efforts in the last few days in terms of seizing on what they think is a soft target."


Michael Shoebridge, director of Australian Strategic Policy Institute's defence and national security program, said social media post "shows again why Chinese soft power is collapsing internationally".

"The Afghan war crimes inquiry and the Australian government moves to hold itself and Australian soldiers to account are in stark contrast to the Chinese government's denials and cover-ups about its abuses in Xinjiang and its repression in Hong Kong," Mr Shoebridge said.

"The world knows about the alleged unlawful killings of 39 Afghans because of a forensic inquiry conducted by Australia authorities, with a 480-page report released publicly.

"In contrast, the world knows about the over one million Uighurs in detention camps in China because of the accounts of escapees, because of leaked Chinese government documents, and analysis of satellite imagery."

Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge called Chinese-Australian community leaders to speak out about the tweet, saying it was "important to remember that the Chinese Communist Party's views are theirs alone".

"I don't believe this post reflects the views of the 1.2 million Australians of Chinese heritage who have chosen to call our great nation home," Mr Tudge said.

Eryk Bagshaw
Eryk Bagshaw is the China correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. Due to travel restrictions, he is currently based in Canberra.
Anthony Galloway
Anthony is foreign affairs and national security correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on December 01, 2020, 06:19:17 AM
A lot of people around the world wanted US supremacy to end. Well, they are getting the world they wanted.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 08, 2020, 08:27:47 AM
Fat Pang is back on the current Australia-China issues - and I totally agree with him:
Quote
Australia's allies need to help it stand up to China or risk being 'picked off' too, former Hong Kong governor warns
Chris Patten says Communist party 'trying to hammer Australia' with trade actions in order to set an example for other countries
Daniel Hurst in Canberra and Helen Davidson in Taipei
Tue 8 Dec 2020 01.53 GMT
First published on Mon 7 Dec 2020 23.23 GMT

Australia needs help from governments around the world to resist "the most extreme example of coercive, commercial" pressure from China, otherwise those countries will be "picked off" in the same way, the last British governor of Hong Kong has said.

Chris Patten, the governor from 1992 to until the handover to China in 1997, also told the Guardian he was "extremely sad" about the crackdown in Hong Kong this year and believed it reflected a change in character of the Chinese Communist party (CCP) under Xi Jinping's leadership.


Patten, who is the Lord Patten of Barnes in the House of Lords in the UK, argued the CCP was trying to "make an example of Australia" by taking a range of trade actions against Australian export sectors during the course of the year – including Australian wine, which is being hit with "anti-dumping" tariffs of up to 200%. Chinese authorities suspended imports from a sixth Australian beef processing company on Monday night.

"I think what has happened to Australia is a powerful argument for all of us for a change [in] working together to actually call China out and stand up to China," Patten said in an interview.

"Now, people say, 'Oh, we don't want a cold war with China'. Of course we don't want a cold war with China. But China is fighting us. China hates our value system. And the question is whether we actually stand up for the sort of societies we are or whether we let China undermine it."


Patten's call for a coalition of like-minded governments was echoed by Taiwan's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, who advised Australia to gather international support to resist the "tremendous pressure" China was putting it under.

"Fighting alone is not the way to deal with it," Wu told the Guardian in an interview.

The already strained relationship between Australia and China hit a new low last week with Scott Morrison demanding an apology after a Chinese foreign ministry official tweeted a digitally created image that appeared to show an Australian soldier cutting the throat of a child in Afghanistan.

China rebuffed the Australian prime minister's demand, but a number of countries including the United Kingdom, United States, France, Germany, New Zealand – along with the European Union – offered public statements condemning the tweet. Japan's embassy also reaffirmed trade should not be used as a political tool.

The Canadian government said on Tuesday it was collaborating with Australia "very closely" on issues related to China and it was "shocked to see the fabricated image posted by a Chinese government official".

Christelle Chartrand, a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada, told the Guardian: "The dissemination of such inflammatory material and disinformation is beneath the standards of proper diplomatic conduct".

While Beijing maintains it is up to the Morrison government to foster a better atmosphere for dialogue, and that Australian politicians and media need to abandon what it calls a "cold war mentality", Patten said he believed the Chinese government was "trying to hammer Australia" in order to set an example for other countries.

Beijing's aim, Patten said, was to demonstrate what would happen to countries if they insisted on having a proper investigation into how the Covid-19 pandemic began, or if they blocked Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from their 5G networks, or if they stood up to United Front activists, or if they questioned the CCP's narratives about its role in the world.

He said other countries should pursue partnerships with China on sensible terms, but be prepared to call the CCP out when it behaved as it was currently doing to Australia – taking action against billions of dollars in exports including barley, wine, red meat and coal, which Beijing has argued is being taken on technical grounds.

Patten said democracies and other concerned countries should work together – including through the World Trade Organization – to bring the Chinese government's behaviour "to the attention of the global community and to make China pay for it".

"Otherwise, other countries will be picked off in the way that Australia has been by this loutish behaviour by China," Patten said.

"What is happening in Australia is important for us in Europe if we want to defend our own rule of law and our own values as open societies and democracies."

Patten emphasised his argument was not with the Chinese people, but "with the Communist party and Xi Jinping's regime".


He said he did not believe the CCP could be trusted, as demonstrated by events in Hong Kong where "basically the Communist party has put the city in handcuffs" through the imposition of a new national security law and the disqualification of pro-democracy lawmakers.

Despite the value of trade with China – the world's second-biggest economy – Patten said countries like Australia and the UK "may have to occasionally lose some economic gain here or there in order to stand up for ourselves, but unless we do, the Chinese will continue to drive a harder and harder and rougher bargain".

"We can't let the wolf warriors, as they're called, to actually win because it will be a less secure world, it'll be a less prosperous world, and will have sacrificed some of the things that really matter to us along the road," he said.

Patten said Australia's transparent investigation into alleged war crimes by its special forces in Afghanistan was the type of action that was unimaginable in China. "Are they are they going to have an investigation into the murders around Tiananmen Square in 1989? Of course they're not," Patten said.

Wu, Taiwan's foreign minister, told the Guardian: "In order for the Australian government to be able to deal with the pressure from China in a more effective manner, my true recommendation, from my heart, is that like-minded partners need to come in and work together with Australia so that Australia will feel not alone in dealing with the situation," Wu said.

Wu suggested other countries could step in to fill the gaps left by China's bans and sanctions on Australian products, and said Taiwan would try to provide support also. Asked what that looked like, Wu said Taiwan's government needed to discuss with Australia what Australia felt would be beneficial.


Wu also advised Australia to follow Taiwan's lead in establishing anti-disinformation and media literacy campaigns to counter false information from Beijing.

He said Taiwan greatly appreciated Australia's vocal support for the World Health Organization to allow Taiwan to regain observer status – something that Beijing had used its global influence to prevent happening for several years.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: KRonn on December 08, 2020, 09:25:41 PM
Good article Sheilbh. I've heard of this recently also. Australia has been trying to hold China accountable, along with other nations and China has been threatening and trying to intimidate the Aussies now. Lots of propaganda out of China against Australia. Lots of propaganda in the US from China.

Today it was reported the FBI found that CA Rep Swalwell had a female Chinese spy working for him, along with other accomplices she was able to find jobs for in the US government.  This spy left the country. CA Senator Feinstein had a Chinese spy working for her for about 20 years, finally outed by the FBI a year or two ago. Over the past year or so there been a number of Chinese and Americans arrested who have been covertly working for the Chinese government in illicit actions. There's a recent video of a Chinese official bragging how they have their people infiltrated throughout the US and in government.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 09, 2020, 02:50:58 AM
maybe it's about time to call people working with the chinese government for what they are: collaborators.
and the chinese government for what it is: soon to be worse than Hitler if they don't change their trajectory

the CCP seems to indeed have learned lessons from the past 200 years. But it may all be the wrong lessons
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 09, 2020, 02:57:29 AM
Taxing Australian wine ain't exactly invading Austria.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on December 09, 2020, 03:03:16 AM
My experience with Aussie wines is that they are all over the place, so maybe the Chinese are doing the right thing  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on December 09, 2020, 04:17:14 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 09, 2020, 02:50:58 AM
maybe it's about time to call people working with the chinese government for what they are: collaborators.
and the chinese government for what it is: soon to be worse than Hitler if they don't change their trajectory

the CCP seems to indeed have learned lessons from the past 200 years. But it may all be the wrong lessons

Well I wouldn't go that far but it is pretty clear obvious that our attempts to woo China have failed. The CCP is not going to change its ways. We used to maybe think that "oh that was the bad old days of Mao and now they will be more pragmatic and moderate" well that clearly is not the case. This is still the party of labor camps and police states.

Unfortunately our political and economic leaders in the US are so corrupt and dysfunctional now I am not sure we can significantly change course. I know our current President made some symbolic gestures and rattled some sabers but I am not sure that really did much in extricating ourselves from our predicament. Well see what President Biden and his crew come up with, but I am not really optimistic.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on December 09, 2020, 04:50:48 AM
I'd argue that Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao more or less moved China in the right direction. It all went haywire with Pooh and the west seems to be scrambling to catch up.

I'd like to see a trade war with China, try to strangle their economy while we still can. If we wait a few decades the west will be an irrelevant appendix to a dominant Asia ruled by China. I'd rather see that we slow China down to let India, Indonesia, Japan and the other large Asian states become relevant counter weights. That way, in a multi-polar world the western states will still be relevant.

I think this is the single most important issue facing the current generation of political leadership.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on December 09, 2020, 05:30:07 AM
I mean, it's obvious that China intends to use its sizable economic influence to extract political leverage in a nationalistic quest for regional supremacy. It won't be the first great power to do so, but doesn't mean they should get a pass, particularly given their unsavory politics.

The problem is that the whole "decoupling" thing sounds nice, but it's rather impractical in free market societies like ours, barring extreme trade wars which will do more harm than good, particularly given the state of our economies. And I've never been a big fan of economic sanctions against authoritarian regimes, anyway, their track record of actually changing anything is pretty poor.

If you asked me 10 years ago I'd have thought that free trade and exposure to the west would ultimately move the emergent Chinese middle class to demand democratic concessions, but so far it doesn't seem to be happening.  <_<
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on December 09, 2020, 05:37:54 AM
From talking to a few fellow Chinese engineers a few years back it seems quite clear that the communist party has no legitimacy in their eyes. They despised communists. They were only willing to talk when alone and in English of course.

I think that the middle class, if they were able, would want to demand democratic concessions. They are not able though in a totalitarian police state with very advanced surveillance.

The idea that trade wars do more harm than good is of course correct from an economic perspective. It would cost us dearly to decouple China.

I believe that that cost is acceptable if it makes it so that my grandchildren won't have to live in a world dominated by an evil totalitarian police state.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on December 09, 2020, 05:46:04 AM
At the very least all hidden Chinese barriers to trade should be treated like for like. The 50% ownership of companies in China is obvious of course.

My company tried to, because of environmental reasons, re-use the black plastic trays that electronics came delivered on.

Could not do it, the company we dealt with understood why and there were no technical reasons. It's just that they could not convince the party officials on why they should be allowed to source that material from us when it would be cheaper to buy new from another Chinese company.

I'm quite sure that there are thousands examples like that where China puts up minor unofficial trade barriers.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on December 09, 2020, 05:49:38 AM
Oh, all the educated Chinese I've met over the years have little time for the CCP, but they're educated Chinese that I've met abroad, not sure how representative they are of their middle class.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on December 11, 2020, 12:41:41 AM
Quote from: celedhring on December 09, 2020, 05:49:38 AM
Oh, all the educated Chinese I've met over the years have little time for the CCP, but they're educated Chinese that I've met abroad, not sure how representative they are of their middle class.

The bulk of the Chinese exchange students I've talked to are very much aware of how corrupt and repressive things are in China, but see it as just the way Chinese do politics.  They generally think that representative democracy is just a western thing.  They'll play the game and hope to get rich.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 11, 2020, 03:32:15 AM
Quote from: celedhring on December 09, 2020, 05:30:07 AM

If you asked me 10 years ago I'd have thought that free trade and exposure to the west would ultimately move the emergent Chinese middle class to demand democratic concessions, but so far it doesn't seem to be happening.  <_<

I don't know why you think that way.  There are indeed plenty of Chinese middle class families who want democracy.  But the solution to that problem is to move to the West, not to start a revolution. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on December 11, 2020, 05:08:40 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 11, 2020, 03:32:15 AM
Quote from: celedhring on December 09, 2020, 05:30:07 AM

If you asked me 10 years ago I'd have thought that free trade and exposure to the west would ultimately move the emergent Chinese middle class to demand democratic concessions, but so far it doesn't seem to be happening.  <_<

I don't know why you think that way.  There are indeed plenty of Chinese middle class families who want democracy.  But the solution to that problem is to move to the West, not to start a revolution.

Perhaps that will change if rapid economic growth continues and the proportion of well-off families increases? Right now gdp per capita is still only about $10,000 ... so many must be delighted to be out of poverty and focussed on car ownership or whatever; if it gets to $30,000 their priorities might change. Taiwan and Singapore are democracies after all, with a greater value placed on good order than other Western countries perhaps.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on December 11, 2020, 05:42:01 AM
Taiwan, Korea and Singapore were not ruled by totally ruthless leaders with the technological ability to control every aspect of the populations lives. Perhaps in a generation or five the leadership might mellow to less ruthless. Or perhaps not.

I for one would not want my family in an extermination camp and my materially comfortable life destroyed by standing first in line in a new Tiananmen Square revolt.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 11, 2020, 06:07:06 AM
Quote from: Threviel on December 11, 2020, 05:42:01 AM
Taiwan, Korea and Singapore were not ruled by totally ruthless leaders with the technological ability to control every aspect of the populations lives. Perhaps in a generation or five the leadership might mellow to less ruthless. Or perhaps not.

I for one would not want my family in an extermination camp and my materially comfortable life destroyed by standing first in line in a new Tiananmen Square revolt.

Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore all had organised opposition, and a certain degree of civil society like independent NGOs.  All these are not present in Mainland China now.

In the 80s, there was a political reform wing of the communist party.  They cooperated with the students in Tiananmen Square in 1989.  The main consequence of Tiananmen was the complete destruction of that wing.  The party's lesson learned of Tiananmen is never back down on political matters.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 11, 2020, 06:10:24 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on December 11, 2020, 05:08:40 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 11, 2020, 03:32:15 AM
Quote from: celedhring on December 09, 2020, 05:30:07 AM

If you asked me 10 years ago I'd have thought that free trade and exposure to the west would ultimately move the emergent Chinese middle class to demand democratic concessions, but so far it doesn't seem to be happening.  <_<

I don't know why you think that way.  There are indeed plenty of Chinese middle class families who want democracy.  But the solution to that problem is to move to the West, not to start a revolution.

Perhaps that will change if rapid economic growth continues and the proportion of well-off families increases? Right now gdp per capita is still only about $10,000 ... so many must be delighted to be out of poverty and focussed on car ownership or whatever; if it gets to $30,000 their priorities might change. Taiwan and Singapore are democracies after all, with a greater value placed on good order than other Western countries perhaps.

I think a lot of rich provinces and major cities have already reached $30k in GDP per capita.  There are a lot of people who think the party is repressive etc, but there are also a huge number of people who are very nationalist. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on December 11, 2020, 07:59:12 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on December 11, 2020, 05:08:40 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 11, 2020, 03:32:15 AM
Quote from: celedhring on December 09, 2020, 05:30:07 AM

If you asked me 10 years ago I'd have thought that free trade and exposure to the west would ultimately move the emergent Chinese middle class to demand democratic concessions, but so far it doesn't seem to be happening.  <_<

I don't know why you think that way.  There are indeed plenty of Chinese middle class families who want democracy.  But the solution to that problem is to move to the West, not to start a revolution.

Perhaps that will change if rapid economic growth continues and the proportion of well-off families increases? Right now gdp per capita is still only about $10,000 ... so many must be delighted to be out of poverty and focussed on car ownership or whatever; if it gets to $30,000 their priorities might change. Taiwan and Singapore are democracies after all, with a greater value placed on good order than other Western countries perhaps.

Taiwan and Singapore had more luck in their fight against organized crime.  China was taken over by it.

There's nothing Western about democracy, per se.   It's just that democracy cannot exist where the thugs call the shots. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on December 12, 2020, 07:23:29 AM
Democracy is not necessary the most important stuff either. Rule and predictability of law is. Like Singapore and previously Hong Kong. Having, like Grumbsy says, the organized crime in charge makes that impossible for China. And now Hong Kong. And if China gets what it want also Taiwan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 18, 2020, 06:37:37 AM
In a bout of deal-making rumours the EU-China Investment Treaty may be almost agreed and possibly in place before President Biden takes office. Which I'm not sure is a great idea. It feels a bit like sacrificing Europe's political values for certain companies' economic interests (because I don't think this will help European manufacturing particularly in CEE which, to an extent, compete on cost).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 18, 2020, 09:11:24 AM
I don't see trade sanctions as a viable path to secure political reform in China.  The leadership clique isn't going to surrender just because the West makes it harder to trade.  Since 2005 the trade/GDP ratio for PRC has declined from 65% to 35% - a clear and unmistakable trend that shows how the internal market has advanced in relative terms.  Also, trade has expanded with non-American/Euro countries that can't be relied on to cooperate with a sanctions regime.  On the flip side, completely shutting down all trade with China would cause real pain to western economies with consequences for the politicians that pursue such a policy.

EDIT: For comparison, the EU countries average about 90% trade/GDP with Germany is 88% and France/UK in the mids 60s.  Much of that is intra-Euro trade of course, but it shows that a large country with a real domestic market is more insulated from disruption in trade flows.  The US is in the mid-20s and China seems to be gradually converging to that level.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 18, 2020, 09:18:24 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 18, 2020, 09:11:24 AM
I don't see trade sanctions as a viable path to secure political reform in China.  The leadership clique isn't going to surrender just because the West makes it harder to trade.  Since 2005 the trade/GDP ratio for PRC has declined from 65% to 35% - a clear and unmistakable trend that shows how the internal market has advanced in relative terms.  Also, trade has expanded with non-American/Euro countries that can't be relied on to cooperate with a sanctions regime.  On the flip side, completely shutting down all trade with China would cause real pain to western economies with consequences for the politicians that pursue such a policy.
I totally agree - but I query the benefit of doing a deal especially when we know that China uses economics to leverage their political goals. This feels like using economics to ignore political goals by the EU.

From a group of EU-China experts:
QuoteEU should not rush investment deal with China
By A group of EU-China experts
Brussels, Today, 13:59

Before the end of the year, European countries have to decide on an investment agreement with China.

A tentative document was rushed through a meeting of ambassadors in Brussels on Friday (18 December). A top-level leaders' discussion is scheduled for the coming days.

Despite seven years of hard negotiations, the text is only a modest step in promoting reciprocity, competitive neutrality and a level playing field.


Concluding it now, is a symbolical victory for China and makes it harder for Europe to engage it on critical matters in the future.

China's concessions are a small improvement in terms of market access. But the draft agreement fails to comprehensively advance equal economic openness and clear, binding, rules.

That Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron are backing this deal, is also the consequence of some last-minute Chinese concessions.

France got some gestures for its retirement home industry. Germany is especially keen on securing its interests in the Chinese electric vehicles and battery sector.

If such "wins" will materialise at all, they will happen in the context of a China that is reinforcing its self-reliance industrial policies and at home and mercantilist expansion abroad.

China still does not pledge to open public markets, for instance. Despite Chinese government procurement totalling hundreds of billions each year, European companies will not be treated equally in public tenders.

China refuses to sign the International Procurement Agreement. Europe also failed to make Beijing accept an investment court system for handling investor disputes and level playing field clauses are unlikely to capture issues such as pervasive indirect subsidies.

One of the main problems is that the commitments to improve labour rights remain vague. They don't include critical commitments with regard to forced labour, the right to association and are still open to further negotiations.

As soon as the deal is approved, it will be harder to press China on this matter, especially now that forced labour seems to have become part of its re-education policy in Xinjiang.

From the moment that the deal is signed, Europe will thus lose leverage not only on issues critical for its future competitiveness but also on fundamental value issues – ranging from human rights to the future of coal power plants.

This has been a year in which China has rescinded its international treaty over Hong Kong. It has been a year during which China clashed on the border with India, engaged in military coercion of Taiwan, and economic coercion against Australia.

From Beijing's perspective, having the EU sign an investment treaty after this sequence of events and in the phrase of power transition in the US, amounts to a strong endorsement of its political trajectory, if not an encouragement to behave more assertively.

Vague promises

Given that China has not fulfilled many of its promises to Europe in the past, why should a vague text commit it more securely?

On the contrary, as has often happened, having achieved a public diplomacy success over Europe, China will turn further its attention to its one tough customer – the US, with the added benefit to have divided allies during an all-important transition in Washington.

If we make our separate deal, much as Donald Trump concluded his Phase One trade agreement a year ago, it will further undermine the transatlantic partnership.

Why the fast-track, the hurry, and the sidestepping of a public debate, why play into China's hand? What message is Europe, so proud of its deepening integration, so talkative about its open strategic autonomy, so insistent on its respect for values, sending to the rest of the world? Member states should think twice.

This deal is about more than pragmatic concessions in the realm of investment. It affects other important European interests and core values. It is about credibility and not committing the same mistake of partial and uncoordinated deal making that Europeans rightly blamed president Donald Trump for.

This treaty is a milestone. It must be negotiated properly so that it becomes a milestone towards a more balanced economic order.

Author bio
François Godement, Institut Montaigne, France.
Sławomir Dębski, Director, The Polish Institute of International Affairs, Poland.
Ingrid D'Hooghe, Clingendael Institute, The Netherlands.
Mikko Huotari, Mercator Institute for China Studies, Germany.
Janka Oertel, ECFR European Council on Foreign Relations.
Plamen Tonchev, Institute of International Economic Relations, Greece.
Jonathan Holslag, Free University Brussels, Belgium.
Ivana Karaskova, Association for International Affairs, Czech Republic.
Mathieu Duchatel, Institut Montaigne, France.
Nicola Casarini, Institute of International Affairs, Italy.
Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Clingendael Institute, Netherlands.
Matej Šimalčík, Central European Institute of Asian Studies, Slovakia.
Max J. Zenglein, Mercator Institute for China Studies, Germany.
Lucrezia Poggetti, Mercator Institute for China Studies, Germany

To that I'd add that one way, I think of addressing China would be for the EU to engage with Biden, Canada, Japan and probably the UK to look at the WTO and international trade in general on a multilateral basis. As it is the Commission has apparently informed member states "this is as good as it gets" with China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on December 18, 2020, 12:49:07 PM
So, how would you curb China Joan?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 18, 2020, 04:02:07 PM
Curbing China is a different goal from regime change, just as Cold War containment differed from rollback.

Between the Obama and Trump admins, one started to see the elements of such a containment strategy: the "pivot", enhancing naval capability in the Pacific and freedom of passage exercises, key alliances in so-called "Indo-Pacific region" (the trumpers were right to link the regions together), toughened approaches in the CFIUS process to tech transfer and then using diplomacy to get Europeans on board. 

It is still a bit piecemeal and incoherent.  The US still has not adopted the LoS convention, which is madness especially at this point.  Obama had problems with the Philippines; Trump created wholly counterproductive issues with Korea - but did pretty well with Japan and India. Trump's tariff oriented policy was pointless and ended up counterproductive by not putting the proper emphasis on the theft and exploitation of stolen IP.  Most importantly, the abandonment of the TPP was a huge strategic mistake that is hard to recover from
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 18, 2020, 04:09:18 PM
America's hard power edge over China erodes every year and you can pick your date for when China could force matters in Taiwan using conventional arms if it were willing the pay the costs - if it's not there already it will be in the foreseeable future.  China has already been able to create fait accomplis in the South China Sea

America still retains a strong edge in soft power despite Trump's efforts to undermine it.  The belt has come off the B&R/Silk Road indicatives as China confronts the realities of international finance and diplomacy in overseas weak states; they are now starting to grasp why the World Bank works the way it does.  In the short run you can buy some diplomatic support with cheap credit, but it rarely sticks.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 20, 2020, 03:12:33 PM
I feel like a ban on the use of forced labour really should be the bear minimum requirement in deals with a third country - especially one that uses forced labour in its economy :blink:
QuoteEU nears China trade deal despite slave labor fears
Companies want greater market access, but EU politicians point to Beijing's attacks on Hong Kongers and Uighurs.

China and the EU are racing to strike a trade accord in the final days of the year, but political scrutiny over China's record on forced labor has only just begun.

Negotiators from Brussels and Beijing have made a breakthrough on access to each other's markets and the EU's trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis will on Monday try to seal the deal with his Chinese counterpart Liu He, EU diplomats and officials said.

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment offers safeguards to EU companies offshoring production to China and will make it easier for EU investors to buy Chinese companies, and vice-versa.

Sabine Weyand, the bloc's top trade bureaucrat, on Friday briefed EU ambassadors on progress in talks and described a surprisingly good offer from the Chinese side, according to five diplomats and one official. However, she warned that China had not agreed to the binding commitments on labor rights, especially a ban on forced labor, that Brussels would have wanted.


Politicians and activists across Europe say they have fundamental questions about whether Europe should be deepening its economic ties with an increasingly aggressive one-party state just as China is cracking down on democracy in Hong Kong, using mass surveillance technologies to control its population and is reportedly locking up hundreds of thousands of members of the Uighur Muslim minority in work camps.

Despite such concerns, EU countries backed Brussels to move into the "endgame" to lock down the deal, even though several nations asked the Commission to secure more commitments on labor. Two diplomats said that because of these remaining concerns, they would expect Weyand to give them another briefing before concluding the pact. "But with Weyand you never know, she is very autonomous," said one.

Many European politicians have been pressing Brussels to avoid economic and political alignment with China, but instead stop Beijing from undercutting the EU on lower labor and environmental standards.

"The political signal is disastrous. This deal mocks the concentration camps and enslavement of a people," said French MEP Raphaël Glucksmann. "I will be active in organizing opposition to this deal. If [EU leaders] think that ratifying this deal will be like posting a letter, they are gravely mistaken."

Critics also warn that agreeing a deal now risks complicating Brussels' effort to team up with U.S. President-elect Joe Biden to confront China on everything from human rights to technological standards.

Green MEP Reinhard Bütikofer complained: "A few market access concessions weigh more than both the need to stand tall against the appalling forced labour practises in China, and the opportunity of aligning with the incoming Biden team."


Cars and banks

In a crucial win for EU companies that have complained about an uneven playing field when doing business with China, the agreement commits Beijing to ease the requirements imposed on joint ventures when EU companies set up shop in China. It will lift foreign ownership bans on certain sectors, which will benefit European car and telecoms firms in particular.

The deal will "increase market access" for EU companies, in particular "financial services," such as banks, said Jörg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China.

China, meanwhile, hopes to invest more broadly in the EU's sensitive energy and high-tech sectors, EU diplomats said. Brussels and Beijing have in the past also presented the deal as a stepping stone towards a broader free-trade agreement.

Other sectors covered by the deal include air travel, hospitals, water transportation, electric and hydrogen cars, and research and development.

A spokesperson from the Chinese mission to the EU said that talks had "accelerated" over the past two weeks, and that the two sides had achieved "concrete results."

Diplomats said France and Germany had been the strongest proponents of the agreement, because their firms stood to benefit the most. Firms could sell their products or services without having to share the profits with a local Chinese partner.

Backing down on labor rights

The deal will face intense political scrutiny, as the European Parliament will need to vote on the agreement. Crucially, EU diplomats said the Commission had not secured binding commitments on forced labor, as it had originally hoped.

If Brussels indeed backs down on labor rights to strike a deal, it could fail to secure a majority in the European Parliament, where the Socialists and Democrats and Greens groups have said they would not ratify an agreement without binding labor rights commitments.


China's worsening track record on human rights, including its treatment of the Uighur minority and its crackdown on pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong, could also torpedo the deal.

Only on Thursday, MEPs adopted a resolution condemning the arbitrary detention, torture and surveillance of Uighur, Kazakh and other minority groups in China.

As part of the deal, the EU wanted China to commit to ratifying the International Labor Organization's "fundamental conventions" which abolish forced labor, and allow workers to organize to form independent unions. But China has refused to make binding commitments on this, fearing that independent labor unions could evolve into a political opposition to the communist party, as the Solidarity trade union did in Poland in the 1980s.

Three diplomats said Brussels could instead consider a compromise on labor rights along the lines of the EU's trade deal with Vietnam. However, in that deal, Vietnam only committed to making "sustained efforts towards ratifying" the ILO's core conventions. EU trade law experts have warned that such language is not legally binding.

"Parliamentarians might push back on labor rights and sustainability commitments, but also with regard to the broader strategic question of signing this agreement with China now instead of working more closely with like-minded partners," said Mikko Huotari, executive director of the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies in Berlin.

France, too, has expressed concern about Beijing's human rights record, though its President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have both supported the deal.

Bye bye strategic autonomy

There are also worries that, by signing a deal now, the EU will jeopardize its goal of becoming less economically dependent on China and diversifying its supply chains.

"This is a completely wrong response to what has happened for the past year," said MEP Glucksmann, from the Socialists and Democrats. "There has really been a questioning in public opinion across Europe of our dependence on China, of our inability to produce masks, of our inability to produce medicines," he added, arguing the deal undermined the EU's goal of securing more "strategic autonomy."

The deal could also undermine the EU's goal of teaming up with the new administration in the U.S. on an array of China-related issues. While Biden has promised a return to diplomacy in contrast to Trump's combative "America First" policy, his administration is poised to take a tough line on China, according to analysts.

Reaching the EU-China deal wasn't easy. "China needs to convince us that it is worth having an investment agreement," Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned in September, while trade chief Dombrovskis said that the agreement should be "ambitious" enough to address "imbalances" in the economic relationship.

However, given the economic difficulties Europe is facing amid the coronavirus crisis, its exporters are increasingly reliant on the Chinese market for growth. In the first three quarters of 2020 EU-China trade hit more than €420 billion, meaning China surpassed the U.S. to become the bloc's top trade partner.

Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting.

If member states endorse this it'll be a disgrace - just utterly craven.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 23, 2020, 04:53:15 PM
Good news! France (:wub:) has announced they'll oppose any EU-China investment agreement because of the use of Uyghur forced labour :w00t: :frog:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 29, 2020, 12:10:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 23, 2020, 04:53:15 PM
Good news! France (:wub:) has announced they'll oppose any EU-China investment agreement because of the use of Uyghur forced labour :w00t: :frog:
Apparently China has made some sort of concession on this - it'll be interesting to see what and no member state has objected to proceeding and trying to get this done by the (self-imposed) deadline of end of this year.

Coincidentally this story also came out today - the latest Buzzfeed investigation on the large and growing complex of factories in detention camps:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/alison_killing/xinjiang-camps-china-factories-forced-labor?bftwnews&utm_term=4ldqpgc#4ldqpgc
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 29, 2020, 04:25:40 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 29, 2020, 12:10:45 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 23, 2020, 04:53:15 PM
Good news! France (:wub:) has announced they'll oppose any EU-China investment agreement because of the use of Uyghur forced labour :w00t: :frog:
Apparently China has made some sort of concession on this - it'll be interesting to see what and no member state has objected to proceeding and trying to get this done by the (self-imposed) deadline of end of this year.

Coincidentally this story also came out today - the latest Buzzfeed investigation on the large and growing complex of factories in detention camps:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/alison_killing/xinjiang-camps-china-factories-forced-labor?bftwnews&utm_term=4ldqpgc#4ldqpgc

china doesn't make concessions, only lies
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on December 29, 2020, 08:06:18 AM
Yeah, China will stop using its Uygur slave labour because France disapproves it. They'll even pinkie-swear on it, which will be good enough for France and the rest of the EU to sign the deal and further enrich that dystopian hellhole of a country.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 29, 2020, 08:31:01 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 29, 2020, 08:06:18 AM
Yeah, China will stop using its Uygur slave labour because France disapproves it. They'll even pinkie-swear on it, which will be good enough for France and the rest of the EU to sign the deal and further enrich that dystopian hellhole of a country.
It'll be interesting to see but my guess is that they'll probably end up with either something like the trade deal with Vietnam were Vietnam commits to "work towards" ILO standards on not using forced labour, or it'll be a commitment to adhere to ILO standards but no audit rights for Europe to actual assess compliance.

It reminds me of that thread by David Henig (mainly about Brexit) that the EU until 2016 didn't really have any strong level playing field provisions because it mainly made trade deals with the developing world where it was seen as unfair. It was only when negotiating the deal with the US that EU started to develop them in particular because of the embarrassment caused by realising that American trade deals have more robust labour and environmental protections than European ones :lol:

I do find it astonishing that amid all the talk of strategic autonomy the decision is to try and get this done before Biden takes office (as Biden has clearly flagged that his preferred approach would be to work with Europe and to develop a common strategy towards China), so Europe can boldly have its China policy that is strategically autonomous from the US. But looked at overall it seems like the European model for strategic autonomy is to do very little to end their security dependence on the US and to take steps to increase commercial/economic dependence on China. It's baffling and it strikes me that at some point those two approaches may conflict.

This appears to be driven by the German Presidency and the Commission, the Coreper decision was to proceed on the basis that no member state had raised a "stop" sign, but a German Green MEP has said that from what he's heard Poland wanted more time to harmonise policy with the incoming US administration (and Poland's ambassador has said member states were bounced into a decision), Italy raised concerns that member states still haven't seen a draft of the Agreement and France and the Netherlands raised concerns around human rights and the Uyghur labour camps. But none of them actually said to stop with the process, so it's proceeding.

I think the core questions are the ones that Ulrich Speck raised on Twitter and these haven't been answered in my view:
- Will the investment deal deepen an already problematic EU dependency on China?
- Will it provide China with additional instruments in the competition with liberal democracies?
- Is it in the longer-term economic interest of the EU?
- What geopolitical message would such a deal send to Beijing, and to Washington?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 30, 2020, 05:03:24 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 29, 2020, 08:31:01 AM
- Will the investment deal deepen an already problematic EU dependency on China?
- Will it provide China with additional instruments in the competition with liberal democracies?
- Is it in the longer-term economic interest of the EU?
- What geopolitical message would such a deal send to Beijing, and to Washington?

given the stupidity of EU politicians the answers will probably be as follow:
1) yes
2) yes
3) no
4) the wrong one
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 30, 2020, 08:29:22 AM
So it is agreed in principle - hopefully the European Parliament takes a stern look at this (althought I imagine that's unlikely because it's likely to have strong support from EPP and governing parties):
QuoteUrsula von der Leyen
@vonderleyen
The EU has the largest single market in the world. We are open for business but we are attached to reciprocity, level playing field & values.

Today, the EU & China concluded in principle negotiations on an investment agreement.

For more balanced trade & business opportunities.

It'll be interesting to see quite where they got to on reciprocity, level playing field and values - I mean the New Zealand - China trade agreement has both parties reaffirming their commitment to and obligations under the ILO's declarations. If it's weaker than that I think the EU would probably have underplayed its hand.

It was apparently concluded on parallel conversations or what the Chinese are calling "four party talks" because, for some reason, on the call were Xi, Michel and vdL, plus Macron and Merkel. It's not clear yet if member states have a copy of the text (this was an Italian complaint) so things might shift once they've had a chance to look it over.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on December 30, 2020, 08:41:59 AM
I am glad that cooler heads prevailed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 30, 2020, 09:20:04 AM
Is there any indication that Biden plans to stop the trade conflict the US started under Trump against Europe?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/biden-europe-trade-war-negotiate/2020/11/11/1e7e87c6-2440-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

The US signed its own deal with the Chinese earlier this year and did not align that with the Europeans either.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/business/economy/china-trade-deal.amp.html

As the US often acts without consideration of European interests, there seems to be little argument that Europe should not do the same.

We don't know the content of the deal, so maybe there is something to criticize on its content. The questions asked above are of course relevant. That's something that needs lots of scrutiny by the European Parliament.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 30, 2020, 09:22:06 AM
The legal text will be worked out in 2021 with ratification planned in 2022. Ample time for analysis and reflection.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on December 30, 2020, 09:29:22 AM
On why the EU is doing it - the corrupt fucktards of Hungary have been making INSANELY disadvantageous deals with China the last couple of years, including tax payers paying for a Belgrade Budapest railroad to be built and used by China, and 16 000 respirators bought for 3x the market price, two thirds which have still not been delivered.

What this is telling me is that China is not shy to grease hands on an epic scale to get their projects done. I am sure they can find willing ears and hands on an EU level as well.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 30, 2020, 09:46:20 AM
That's just conjecture or do you have anything to support your claim? This has been in the works for seven years and is a committed common interest of the EU. I am not saying that there is no corruption in the EU, but I doubt that's a relevant driver for this policy.

The corruption of the Orban government is not China-specific, so maybe it has more to do with Orban than with China. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 30, 2020, 12:52:47 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 30, 2020, 09:20:04 AM
Is there any indication that Biden plans to stop the trade conflict the US started under Trump against Europe?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/biden-europe-trade-war-negotiate/2020/11/11/1e7e87c6-2440-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

The US signed its own deal with the Chinese earlier this year and did not align that with the Europeans either.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/business/economy/china-trade-deal.amp.html

As the US often acts without consideration of European interests, there seems to be little argument that Europe should not do the same.
Biden's NSA said, in reference to ths agreement that the new administration would welcome early consultations with European partners on common issues. Biden has criticised that deal that Trump did (though not totally repudiated it). And the Biden team have made it very clear that they want to work closely with the EU. I think there's plenty of indications that Biden wants to work with the EU which will definitely involve talking about Trump's trade war stuff with Europe.

I think my bigger point would be that we've had several of worsening human rights abuses in China and the wolf warrior diplomacy which seems to be getting a reward or at least not considered relevant by the EU - a values superpower in my view. And it's obvious that one of the key reasons China's making last-minute concessions now is precisely because it's between administrations to hopefully divide Europe and the US before Biden's even taken office. It'll take work by the European and American diplomats to avoid that risk.

QuoteWe don't know the content of the deal, so maybe there is something to criticize on its content. The questions asked above are of course relevant. That's something that needs lots of scrutiny by the European Parliament.
Yes but we do know that vdL has said of it:
QuoteWe will improve the status quo for a fairer treatment of our companies:
Transparency on subsidies & disciplines on  state owned enterprises
More market access, certainty & predictability for EU businesses
No more forced technology transfers & other distortive practices
This Agreement will uphold our interests & promotes our core values. It provides us a lever to eradicate forced labour. We are engaging with China to:
Protect our climate under  #ParisAgreement
Promote rule-based multilateralism

I think a lever to eradicated forced labour is exceptionally unlikely. And I think there is something on climate because Xi has made very ambitious goals for China on energy transition which are essential.

But on SOEs, on market access and on technology transfers what vdL is talking about here and what the EU will want goes against Xi's stated policy agenda (which I think will work - I think his autocratic capitalist model is going to succeed). It's the triumph of hope over experience to not take Xi at his word at this stage.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 30, 2020, 02:10:01 PM
The current US administration was actively hostile to European economic interests. For all we know, we might get a four year reconvergence with the next administration, but the Democrats pivoted towards protectionism as well. Let's see. But in case this agreement is actually concluded in 2022, half of that time is already up. Who knows if the next administration is again hostile to Europe?

The US concluded its own China agreement that contains e.g. provisions on IP and technology transfer in 2020, so obviously Europe should do the same.

If the new EU-China agreement does not change China's behaviour due to Xi's policies, it would not matter anyway whether or not we have an agreement. Unless the argument is that some kind of concerted action with the Americans would somehow yield better results? But if the argument is that it violates Xi's core policies, even concerted action seems unlikely to be effective.

And it is noticeable that the US likes to e.g. pressure countries or sanction companies that deal with Huawei, but then grant exceptions to American, but not foreign companies, so that they can deal with Huawei after all. That's not increasing confidence in American good faith with regards to concerted action on China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 30, 2020, 02:20:41 PM
For what it's worth, I find some of the alleged content questionable. We should be able to scrutinise and block Chinese investments in the EU more, not less.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 30, 2020, 02:42:29 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 30, 2020, 02:10:01 PM
The current US administration was actively hostile to European economic interests. For all we know, we might get a four year reconvergence with the next administration, but the Democrats pivoted towards protectionism as well. Let's see. But in case this agreement is actually concluded in 2022, half of that time is already up. Who knows if the next administration is again hostile to Europe?
But again I don't quite get this from a European perspective. Europe relies on America for defence and the way to address this is to rely more on China commercially and economically. That doesn't address the risk of American hostility (because Europe still relies on them for defence) but it increases the risk of Chinese hostility, especially as we know China uses its commercial ties for political ends. How does this address the risk of another Trump administration? It just seems to make Europe more potentially vulnerable and Europe in less of a position to say "no" to China. Or it exposes Europe to risk around American security guarantees.

And China's goal in dealing with Europe is to reach a point where they are politically neutral between the US and China.

QuoteThe US concluded its own China agreement that contains e.g. provisions on IP and technology transfer in 2020, so obviously Europe should do the same.
An agreement the incoming President has repeatedly criticised (though not repudiated).

QuoteIf the new EU-China agreement does not change China's behaviour due to Xi's policies, it would not matter anyway whether or not we have an agreement. Unless the argument is that some kind of concerted action with the Americans would somehow yield better results? But if the argument is that it violates Xi's core policies, even concerted action seems unlikely to be effective.
Yeah my argument is that concerted united action and a common strategy with Europe, the US, Japan, Korea, India, the UK, Canada, Australia working together (and practically speaking led by and cobbled together by the US) has a better chance of dealing jointly with China's distortions of the market economy and their political strategy of making the world safe for autocracy. It won't change Xi's core policies but it can limit their impact globally and their effect on us.

QuoteAnd it is noticeable that the US likes to e.g. pressure countries or sanction companies that deal with Huawei, but then grant exceptions to American, but not foreign companies, so that they can deal with Huawei after all. That's not increasing confidence in American good faith with regards to concerted action on China.
Again it might be worth waiting to see whether that lasts or whether that's a feature of America First politics.

The other side of this is how this agreement will affect the tech race - can China take advantage and increase their leadership (especially in relation to Europe) to become stronger. Again we know China uses its commercial relations for strategic, political ends. I think this is a particular risk for Europe because in key tech sectors like AI it is light-years behind China and the US (it's not clear if Europe can catch up) and I think those may end up being the alternatives for Europe to choose. A Chinese government advisor commented that this agreement will give China leverage in European rule-making for new industries, which I think is definitely a risk.

There is competition emerging in the world right now between a liberal, market rules based order and a state-led, autocratic rules based order and this agreement needs to be assessed in that context. In 2019 the EU said that China is a "systemic rival" and "economic competitor" as well as a "partner". How does this fit in with that?

I suppose the bigger issue is I think Xi has a policy agenda and a strategy - which I think may well succeed. It is easy to see how this fits into that. Europe's policy and strategy is less clear but there is something around values and the liberal, market rules based order, there is an awareness in EU work in tech of how far behind the EU is in comparison to the US and China in cutting edge  like AI and a desire to fix that in some way. I don't get how this fits with Europe's strategy, as opposed to just commercial interests and business as usual.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 30, 2020, 03:40:51 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 30, 2020, 02:42:29 PM
I don't get how this fits with Europe's strategy, as opposed to just commercial interests and business as usual.

might be better if you accept that the EU doesn't have a strategy other than pretending it is a meaningful player on the world stage instead of a potemkin village...
Cause that is what it looks like currently.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 31, 2020, 03:21:05 AM
Europe relies on the US for defence because thats in American interests, not because of altruism in America. Those interests will not change even with the investment pact. It's not like the Americans align with us when they unilaterally decide to scrap the Iran treaty or withdraw from Syria or Afghanistan.

How does an investment protection agreement increase economic dependency and why is that apparently just a one-way dependency?

By the way, in economic terms, the EU already is the neutral third pole between America and China.

Quotecommon strategy with Europe, the US, Japan, Korea, India, the UK, Canada, Australia
Japan, Korea, and Australia signed the RCEP recently with China, which is deeper than this agreement. So if agreements preclude working together, I guess they are out. India is often doing its own thing, is itself very protectionist, and is close to warfare with China in the Himalayas. I fail to see the common ground there. Leaves the UK and Canada, both already in the US sphere.

But lets assume we all work.together. What are the concrete steps that these countries should take towards China and how would these be successful, when they supposedly conflict with China's strategy?

QuoteThere is competition emerging in the world right now between a liberal, market rules based order and a state-led, autocratic rules based order and this agreement needs to be assessed in that context.
Yes. How does this agreement lessen Europe's clear position for a market based order and how do international obligations that China enters to uphold market based rules not contribute towards it? Is the assumption that China acts in bad faith whenever they promise something? If so, why engage with them at all? Also related to the concrete steps taken as a group together above.

By the way, on the tech gap, the reason China could build rivals to the US tech companies is very severe protectionism. Are you arguing for European protectionism here, a great firewall around Europe? That would rightfully be considered extremely hostile by the US as right now, the US has a massive lead there in the European market. If we want emulate China's approach, we would have to scrap GDPR and other privacy related legislation and pool the data of European consumers. Hardly what we want either.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 05:01:27 AM
Quote from: Zanza on December 31, 2020, 03:21:05 AM
Europe relies on the US for defence because thats in American interests,

How so?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 31, 2020, 05:19:00 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 05:01:27 AM
Quote from: Zanza on December 31, 2020, 03:21:05 AM
Europe relies on the US for defence because thats in American interests,

How so?
It furthers American influence and interests globally and allows America to project both soft and hard power.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 05:54:32 AM
At a higher cost than the benefits gained by those interests.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 31, 2020, 06:26:58 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 05:54:32 AM
At a higher cost than the benefits gained by those interests.
The costs for American international deployments are estimated at 100 billion per year or 0.5% of US GDP. Whether that price is commensurate with the benefits America gets is something the American political establishment so far affirmed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 07:39:03 AM
700 billion for total military spending, such as the weapons and personnel that can be moved to those installations. It's unclear how much this has netted us from favorable trade deals, if any.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on December 31, 2020, 07:41:36 AM
We would probably bend over backwards if the US threatened to pull out of Rota, tbf.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zoupa on December 31, 2020, 08:15:30 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 07:39:03 AM
700 billion for total military spending, such as the weapons and personnel that can be moved to those installations. It's unclear how much this has netted us from favorable trade deals, if any.

The insane amount given to defense spending in the US has very little to do with favorable trade deals.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on December 31, 2020, 08:36:52 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on December 31, 2020, 08:15:30 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 07:39:03 AM
700 billion for total military spending, such as the weapons and personnel that can be moved to those installations. It's unclear how much this has netted us from favorable trade deals, if any.

The insane amount given to defense spending in the US has very little to do with favorable trade deals.

Given the threat of China and Russia the insane defence spending is probably done in Europe rather than the US.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 08:47:45 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on December 31, 2020, 08:15:30 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 07:39:03 AM
700 billion for total military spending, such as the weapons and personnel that can be moved to those installations. It's unclear how much this has netted us from favorable trade deals, if any.

The insane amount given to defense spending in the US has very little to do with favorable trade deals.

Right. It's a cock-eyed form of altruism- "we'll be the biggest and strongest so the world will have relative peace and stability", not an investment to be recovered.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on December 31, 2020, 09:01:03 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on December 31, 2020, 08:47:45 AM
Right. It's a cock-eyed form of altruism- "we'll be the biggest and strongest so the world will have relative peace and stability", not an investment to be recovered.

US defense spending and foreign policy has never been "an investment to be recovered," but a policy system that has maintained a world very much organized in ways designed to benefit US interests. 

Trump-style thinking of it as an investment that has to turn a profit is short-sighted and leads to Trump-style foreign policy decisions that ultimately hurt US national interests.  Abandoning the Kurds to prove Trump's urgent manhood just alienated any potential Kurd-like allies of the US for future operations, and his rush to suck Israeli cock has moved the US hopelessly away from its mediation role in the Middle East.  Trump thinks it smart to turn that role over to Russia (maybe because he's been told to do that).

Treating foreign and defense policy as transactional is the opposite of strategy.  And defense and foreign affairs are the two arenas in which having a strategy are essential.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 31, 2020, 09:09:45 AM
Quote from: Zanza on December 30, 2020, 09:20:04 AM
Is there any indication that Biden plans to stop the trade conflict the US started under Trump against Europe?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/biden-europe-trade-war-negotiate/2020/11/11/1e7e87c6-2440-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

Did you read the story?  it's about the Airbus/Boeing subsidy cases, which started under GWB and were pursed during the Obama administration.  Both cases were substantially justified under WTO rules.

QuoteThe US signed its own deal with the Chinese earlier this year and did not align that with the Europeans either.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/business/economy/china-trade-deal.amp.html

That was an agreement on trade in goods and services, not investment.  The US discussed a bilateral investment treaty with China but did not sign one.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Iormlund on December 31, 2020, 09:13:56 AM
Quote from: Threviel on December 31, 2020, 08:36:52 AM
Given the threat of China and Russia the insane defence spending is probably done in Europe rather than the US.

Do you really think China or Russia could occupy Germany, much less France or Italy?

As Grumbler says, military expenses are a result of long-term strategy. And there is no European common strategy. There can't be. We're 27 different countries each with different needs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 31, 2020, 09:19:11 AM
The reason why investment deals raises security issues is the concern that the Chinese state uses Chinese owned enterprises as a Trojan Horse to gain improper access to Western IP and IT infrastructure. That should be a concern for the EU regardless of what US policy happens to be or indeed even if the US never existed. Since the US does exist and there is an obvious harmony of interest on this issue - as well as an opportunity to increase leverage through collective action - a joint approach seems very desirable for both parties.  It is fair to criticize that the Trump people didn't act cooperatively and that the Trump admin didn't know its collective ass from its collective elbow.  However, given the imminent departure of Trump and his replacement with what appears to be a pro-Atlanticist foreign policy team, the timing here seems particularly unfortunate.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 31, 2020, 09:23:14 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on December 31, 2020, 09:13:56 AM
Do you really think China or Russia could occupy Germany, much less France or Italy?

Of course Russia has the capability of occupying Germany; its has vastly more conventional forces and total nuclear dominance.  Whether it would want to is another question.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 31, 2020, 09:26:24 AM
IMO its a bit awkward for Europe to present the new administration with an ambitious list of joint initiatives while simultaneously dropping on them a fait accompli on one of the most pressing security issues.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 31, 2020, 09:40:03 AM
I should clarify - the strategic side of this is really important in my view. But my objection is primarily moral. I don't think it's right to enter into new economic agreements with states when they are building forced labour camps and behaving aggressively towards neighbours. That doesn't mean there should be sanctions on them necessarily and trade may well continue, but I think further integration and agreements should be put on hold until they are dismantling those labour camps and working with their neighbours.

One other thought I have is whether at some point trade policy should also consider climate as well as human rights (obviously we can't because the US) - but I think there's an argument that flagrant disregard of climate should be treated in a similar way as human rights abuses (especially when those human rights abuses support that countries economy and are integrated into it).

Quote from: Zanza on December 31, 2020, 03:21:05 AM
Europe relies on the US for defence because thats in American interests, not because of altruism in America. Those interests will not change even with the investment pact. It's not like the Americans align with us when they unilaterally decide to scrap the Iran treaty or withdraw from Syria or Afghanistan.
America doesn't align with Europe because they don't depend on Europe for their defence. And I agree about American interests - that's why I've always thought Europe needs to develop it's own proper defence capability, but that's not going to happen there's no appetite for it.

QuoteHow does an investment protection agreement increase economic dependency and why is that apparently just a one-way dependency?
Depth and sectors. From my understanding Chinese economic relations with Europe is generally broad based, with a focus that European rules have tried to stop on buying emerging tech companies. While key strategic European sectors rely to a huge extent on China - in particular automobiles and telecoms. I think this agreement is more likely to strengthen or exacerbate that than shift it.

QuoteBut lets assume we all work.together. What are the concrete steps that these countries should take towards China and how would these be successful, when they supposedly conflict with China's strategy?
So I think there's three sides to it: what is China's strategy? What are the areas where we can and should work together? What are the areas of risk or vulnerability or other red lines that we may have? I think the last two questions are ones that were a coordinated response would work best - so for example I think there are very real advantages to everyone engaging on climate, or on things like global pandemics, or even day to day trade.

My view of China's strategy is that economics and commercial interests are secondary to political goals. At the moment Xi is building what I think will be a successful and quite durable state capitalist model that basically injects a degree of political control into private businesses (not least to control the internal risks of the animal spirits in private businesses), but also to inject some private sector style risk taking and nimbleness into SOEs. But in both cases the commercial/economic is secondary to the political. On a global level there is a desire to in effect make the world safe for that model which is why China is focused on financial centres/nexuses and tech because it either offers them a chance to develop or create the platforms of the future or to influence the rule making/global standard setting decisively. Part of that is through the Chinese state making it easier for innovative private sector companies to access capital (without necessarily taking over), part of it is tech transfers or the mandatory JV structure or buying out innovative foreign companies (again potential through state facilitated funding) and part of it is through Chinese companies providing part of the essential infrastructure of other countries which is then used for political leverage.

I think responding to that is challenging because I think to a large extent it will work and I don't buy the Soviet containment angle which I think is nonsense. But I think there probably is something in working on a common strategy that identifies red-lines, for example, core tech or financial infrastructure - in my view human rights to an extent (i.e. China's an authoritarian state that we will trade and work with like other authoritarian states - building a network of forced labour camps for over 1 million people, based on estimates I think, because of their minority status moves China into a different category at the minute) and develops common protections or responses to that. Also I think a common approach on investment by Chinese companies into strategic sectors would be good. On a more positive scale I think there is an argument for supporting the development of alternative platforms (a little counter-state capitalism) in tech and finance - I think the EU voice would be very valuable given the intention to have ethics-led tech as without the EU it's more likely it will be the American model.

QuoteYes. How does this agreement lessen Europe's clear position for a market based order and how do international obligations that China enters to uphold market based rules not contribute towards it? Is the assumption that China acts in bad faith whenever they promise something? If so, why engage with them at all? Also related to the concrete steps taken as a group together above.
The Chinese leadership regularly breaks international trade and investment agreements. We have had thirty years of experience between the sort of WTO argument of integrating China into treaties and trade agreemements etc. Over the course of thosse 30 years it's clear that China prioritises their strategic and political interests over obligations under treaties or the international "order". That was the case before Xi but is even more the case now. I think expecting China to sign up to an agreement and live up to the "elimination" of forced labour, or transparency around SOEs or forced tech transfers is the triumph of hope over experience. I think the more accurate question is based on the last thirty years of practice in relation to its international obligations, why does the EU think China will comply with these?

And the advantage China gains from that is that it's likely that at least for the next few years the EU will focus on trying to make its agreement "work" rather than building a common strategy with other partners, particularly the US. Right now you have a new administration that is desperate to work with the EU (because that is part of their world vision) and that wants to build a common approach to China. It is likely that the EU is going to focus on making this treaty work for the next four years.

But more important, Europe imposed this artificial deadline which is creating the time pressure and strengthening the incentive to grasp a carrot offered by China. That's why China made sudden, last-minute concessions now. So the question isn't whether the EU should necessarily do a deal of some sort with China, but when they've got a new administration coming whether it would have been better to wait a few months and see what the new administration's view was and whether anything durable could be built or not. From everything I've read coming out of the Biden camp they were placing a big bet on working with the EU to try and rebuild the transatlantic partnership and something wider on China etc. The EU (because of its own deadline) seized the carrot and has decided that going it alone is more likely to advance their goals - I think that assessment is probably wrong, but I certainly think it's premature at this point and makes Europe look weak. And I think Biden will still want to work with Europe but that bet he made may not be worth it anymore and it might make more sense to pick up on Obama's pivot to China and focus on Asian alliances while continuing to draw down the European partnership.

I don't think the irony of the EU using Trump's unilateralism (after spending four years complaining about it) to justify this EU unilateralism weeks before Biden takes office will be lost on him or his advisors.  Is going it alone better than working with other partners like the US? Is it so much better that it's worth agreeing this in principle now (and sending that message to a new administration) rather than waiting a few months to see what the other options are?

QuoteBy the way, on the tech gap, the reason China could build rivals to the US tech companies is very severe protectionism. Are you arguing for European protectionism here, a great firewall around Europe? That would rightfully be considered extremely hostile by the US as right now, the US has a massive lead there in the European market. If we want emulate China's approach, we would have to scrap GDPR and other privacy related legislation and pool the data of European consumers. Hardly what we want either.
Protectionism is part of it for sure I slightly think that certainty matters too - in AI for example the EU has published numerous papers on ethical AI and has an intention at some point to regulate. But it hasn't got to the stage of actually setting out legal principles. I work with European companies in this area and there is a bit of a fear/hesitancy to really invest too much into this because it's kind of difficult to work out how these ethical ideas work and also which ones are likely to be translated into law. There is more certainty/confidence in the US where you can just do it until it's banned (I'm sure it's more complex than that :lol:) or China which is similar. I think clarity and certainty would really help - especially if it was a little bit in advance or early instead of several years down the line when companies in other countries have built up a huge advantage.

And I'm not necessarily saying that Europe should emulate China on that. There was a really interesting paper commissioned by the Commission (:lol:) around this that basically said the US model is just pure capitalism and China's model is basically pure state capitalism (i.e. focus is very much on security and tech for national security purposes). The paper's argument was basically that the EU should aim to be a third pole and their vision was basically a values-driven, ethical tech pole - the issue was the EU was so far behind that it might not be able to catch up so in a way an ethical regulatory framework (little bit like GDPR) is also a way that allows the EU some influence because it can maybe impose standards on Chinese or US tech companies. I think there is definitely a possibility that we end up with tech blocs: China, US/Five Eyes plus and Europe.

Without fixing the tech gap though I think it's more likely that Europeans are left choosing between US and Chinese tech platforms neither of which will fully comply with European law or a European ethics-led approach. I think we slightly see this already with GDPR and the social media platforms. I would be surprised if any of them are in any real way compliant with GDPR and if that data isn't hoovered up by the relevant spy agencies - so the question is are you more comfortable with it mainly being American spies and silicon valley techbros or with it being Chinese spies and their equivalent? As I say above I think this could be slightly addressed by working with partners to develop/support alternatives.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 10:28:43 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on December 31, 2020, 09:13:56 AM
Do you really think China or Russia could occupy Germany, much less France or Italy?

As Grumbler says, military expenses are a result of long-term strategy. And there is no European common strategy. There can't be. We're 27 different countries each with different needs.

Shouldn't the question be can Russia occupy one or more  of the Baltics, given that they're countries you're bound by treaty to defend?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 10:47:37 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on December 31, 2020, 08:15:30 AM
The insane amount given to defense spending in the US has very little to do with favorable trade deals.

I believe that's Eddie's point.  If you want to dispute it you should take it up with Zanza.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on December 31, 2020, 11:26:34 AM
Quote from: Iormlund on December 31, 2020, 09:13:56 AM
Do you really think China or Russia could occupy Germany, much less France or Italy?

As Grumbler says, military expenses are a result of long-term strategy. And there is no European common strategy. There can't be. We're 27 different countries each with different needs.

Yes, Russia is vastly superior militarily to Europe. Also an army with experience and a total ruthlessness for civilian life.

But the question should be this:

Would Russia listen to a threat of violence from Germany when invading a neighbouring state?

A militarily superior Germany, Poland, France and Italy has a strong voice. A militarily inferior EU can write a harsher letter.

FFS, look at Europe in the thirties. A militarily ready France could easily have stopped the war in 36 or so.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 31, 2020, 11:29:44 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 31, 2020, 09:40:03 AM
My view of China's strategy is that economics and commercial interests are secondary to political goals. At the moment Xi is building what I think will be a successful and quite durable state capitalist model that basically injects a degree of political control into private businesses (not least to control the internal risks of the animal spirits in private businesses), but also to inject some private sector style risk taking and nimbleness into SOEs.

I don't see the latter - the SOEs took some awful risks in the B&R initiative because they were told to and then the stopped because they lost their shirts and Xi told them to stop.  That's not exactly Schumpeterian entrepreneurial risk-taking in action.  The Chinese economic model predates Xi but has become more state directed under his rule.  It has been successful because high investment levels have driven economic growth rates that compensates for significant capital misallocation. The problem for China is that no advanced nation (i.e. on the technological and income frontier) has ever succeeded with such a model on a sustained basis.  I suppose there is always a first but count me skeptical.

QuoteThe Chinese leadership regularly breaks international trade and investment agreements. 

Yes and not just limited to that.  China's treatment of the Law of the Sea Convention is an object lesson for anyone who thinks its behavior can be easily controlled through paper agreements without some real enforcement mechanism backing it.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 31, 2020, 11:57:41 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 31, 2020, 11:29:44 AMI don't see the latter - the SOEs took some awful risks in the B&R initiative because they were told to and then the stopped because they lost their shirts and Xi told them to stop.  That's not exactly Schumpeterian entrepreneurial risk-taking in action.  The Chinese economic model predates Xi but has become more state directed under his rule. It has been successful because high investment levels have driven economic growth rates that compensates for significant capital misallocation.
Agreed - and there may be clarity on this in the future because we are awaiting the 14th Five Year Plan (and in a world once more where that is relevant). The other side of this of course is if you don't have high household consumption (and China doesn't yet) and you don't want to be over-exposed as just an export economy (and China doesn't for strategic reasons) then you need a strong state investment sector to create demand - especially given the old growth target and I've read the new 5 Year Plan will be the first without a growth target.

But I think there's been a move from just Belt and Road style projects to SOEs getting private capital and increasing their capital investment and R&D - which is what you would probably want them to do  and seems a more disciplined (and potentially successful) approach than just things like B&R. Especially now that there is clearly a tech war with the US/West which I actually think provides a focus for China that was perhaps not previously there.

The other side is I wonder how much of this is actually a way of managing the decline of certain SOEs especially in energy or heavy industry if China is serious (and I think they are) about Xi's energy transition/climate commitments?

QuoteThe problem for China is that no advanced nation (i.e. on the technological and income frontier) has ever succeeded with such a model on a sustained basis.  I suppose there is always a first but count me skeptical.
Yeah I get that. And they're probably not there yet - I think I saw the idea that the goal was for SOEs to get more market discipline and for private businesses to get more party discipline. I think that exchange could be productive and helpful and I'm not convinced that state capitalist model will fail. I think it's certainly a solid enough model for the medium term, especially in the context of energy transition which I think will be a dominant economic factor for the next 20-30 years.

You're right about no advanced nation, but I suppose my query would be have seen an example of this model in operation that is already so sophisticated and so involved in the world economy? So while your point is right, are China already further along than any previous state capitalist model? I could be wrong, but my suspicion is they are.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 31, 2020, 12:39:13 PM
Russia, Turkey, and Mexico follow a state capitalist model to some degree - they all have GDP/person a roughly the same level as China - in the US$9000-12,000.  China is in the middle of that pack although growing faster.  But most OECD nations are in the 30-60K range - that is a big gap.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on December 31, 2020, 02:21:28 PM
In some way the way the Western world deals with China reminds me of the episode after WW2 where the Brits gave away their leading jet engine technology to USSR.  Stalin was puzzled why they would do that, but was glad to take it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 31, 2020, 02:26:18 PM
I am growing worried at Chinese tech companies huge edge in producing the same quality but for much cheaper. Why wouldn't you buy a Chinese phone, its perfecty logical to do this. As a random man on the street you don't care about China getting access to your country's networks, you just want what's best for you.
And there's no clear way for government to tackle this short of unfair treatment of Chinese goods.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on December 31, 2020, 03:05:38 PM
There would be nothing unfair about treating Chinese goods adversely if they're an arm of foreign state, especially hostile one.  In general I find it to be a grave dereliction of duty on the part of Western governments when they leave their citizens to fight against hacking by hostile states all on their own.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 02, 2021, 02:32:48 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 10:28:43 AM
Shouldn't the question be can Russia occupy one or more  of the Baltics, given that they're countries you're bound by treaty to defend?
Not just in NATO, but in the Eurozone - the Baltic states are core, very integrated member states. But I think they are broadly seen as not quite fully "European".

Incidentally interesting piece on frustrations from other member states at the Franco-German push to agree this deal with China:
QuoteGermany's drive for EU-China deal draws criticism from other EU countries
Italy, Poland, Belgium and Spain don't like the way the investment agreement was pushed through in the last days of the German presidency of the EU.
By Jakob Hanke Vela, Giorgio Leali and Barbara Moens   
January 1, 2021 9:04 am

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's strong push to conclude the EU-China deal in the last days of the year has left a bad aftertaste among a group of EU countries who said they felt ignored.

Officials from Italy, Poland, Belgium and Spain criticized the way Germany pushed through the investment agreement with China in the final days of the German presidency of the Council of the EU, despite their warnings that the timing was tone deaf to slave labor concerns in China and risked alienating incoming U.S. President Joe Biden.


The officials said they felt steamrolled by Merkel and the "German engine" inside the European Commission, in particular Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and trade department director Sabine Weyand, who are both German.

"There's a lot of frustration among smaller countries about the way the Commission has been used to push through one of Merkel's pet projects at the end of her term and the end of her legacy," said one EU diplomat.

"Is this the way the EU will work post-Brexit? The Brits are just out and we're already missing their open market-oriented approach," the diplomat said. "If Germany weighs in too much, smaller EU countries have nothing to say."


The EU on Wednesday sealed a bilateral investment pact with China, allowing investors to acquire companies in a number of sectors, limiting joint venture requirements and allowing foreign employees to work in their respective markets.

But the critics worried that the deal was a political win for Chinese President Xi Jinping and came just as his government cracked down on democracy in Hong Kong, ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and journalists reporting on the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.

"We are giving a positive signal to China at a time of significant human-rights concerns," Italian Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs Ivan Scalfarotto told the Corriere della Sera on Thursday, citing China's crackdown in Hong Kong, "the persecution of Uighurs," and the four-year prison sentence imposed on a journalist this week for reporting on the pandemic in Wuhan.

German officials insist they and the Commission consulted with other capitals and that while some raised objections no one held up a "stop sign" to halt the deal.

Transatlantic snub

One EU official also pointed out that Weyand briefed member countries twice before Brussels sealed the pact with China, even though the Commission already had a legal mandate to negotiate and so was allowed to conclude the deal.

But that mandate was seven years old, as another diplomat from the group of critical countries pointed out, adding he was skeptical whether it was wise for the Commission to conclude the deal based on that mandate, given that relations with China had changed significantly in the meantime.

Diplomats also pointed out that some countries, such as Poland, had publicly voiced their opposition to rushing the deal through. "We need more consultations and transparency bringing our transatlantic allies on board. A good, balanced deal is better than a premature one," Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau tweeted last week.


The countries also argued that Brussels should have coordinated its approach with U.S. President-elect Biden, who said he wanted to work with the EU to tackle China. Biden takes office on January 20, so China's last-minute concessions, which paved the way for this week's deal, suggested Beijing wanted to lock the EU into an agreement before the transatlantic allies could coordinate a tougher approach.

Brussels should have waited for the new U.S. administration to take office before concluding the deal, Italy's Scalfarotto said. "This decision at this specific stage creates a problem," he said. "The incoming administration cannot speak, but it had made it clear that it would have preferred Europe to wait. I want to hope they don't consider it rude ... we must not miss the opportunity to work with Biden."

Scalfarotto said that, while Europe was entitled to seal its own trade deals, there was no need for "unnecessary rudeness."

EU tensions

Italy was also unhappy that French President Emmanuel Macron was invited to take part in a videoconference with Chinese President Xi Jinping alongside Merkel, who represented the EU presidency, while other EU leaders were not.

"I don't believe that having Macron, the choice of one country over the other 26, was justified. It's an unusual format which also marks a defeat for us Italians," Scalfarotto said, adding that Italy had asked to have EU leaders only on the call.


Other EU officials echoed the criticism of France. While France's junior minister for trade Franck Riester last week publicly criticized the deal over a lack of commitments on slave labor and a lack of investment protection, Paris ended up backing the deal.

Two diplomats said Macron had secured benefits for some particular companies, such as Airbus. Merkel, another official said, reached an understanding with Macron under which she would get to conclude the deal under the German presidency, while the ratification and signing of the deal would be finalized under the French Council presidency in the first half of 2022.

The group of critical countries worried the Franco-German push had led Brussels to ignore some legitimate concerns about the deal. They feared this approach, ignoring other views, did not bode well for the way the EU would handle its relations with America and China in the future.


"This isn't just another deal with some small country," one of the diplomats said. "The way we position ourselves in the U.S.-China dynamic will make or break the EU."

Hans von der Burchard contributed reporting.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 02, 2021, 02:41:54 AM
What's the positive spin on this agreement?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 02, 2021, 02:49:40 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 02, 2021, 02:41:54 AM
What's the positive spin on this agreement?
I think it's basically that it is good for European business and provides more certainty around investment in China (and vice versa). It is Europe taking a step towards strategic autonomy which is necessary after Trump (and the fact that 74 million people voted for him this time round too) and general uncertainty around the US's long-term commitment to Europe. It will tie China into more international, liberal market obligations which may result in either change of behaviour or enough enforceable rights to mitigate the "bad" behaviour. And China has made concessions that are "as good as it's going to get" so do you agree a deal of some type and bank those benefits or conclude there won't be a deal in foreseeable.

I'm not convinced any of them particularly stack up - except that it's good for European business - the thing about Macron and Airbus is particularly striking.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2021, 03:58:56 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 02, 2021, 02:41:54 AM
What's the positive spin on this agreement?
Just to add to this the Portuguese PM has now added another argument for the agreement that is, I think, true. Backing out now under American pressure would send a bad message about the EU when it's trying to behave as a strategically autonomous power. Politically that is right.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 04, 2021, 04:13:03 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2021, 03:58:56 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 02, 2021, 02:41:54 AM
What's the positive spin on this agreement?
Just to add to this the Portuguese PM has now added another argument for the agreement that is, I think, true. Backing out now under American pressure would send a bad message about the EU when it's trying to behave as a strategically autonomous power. Politically that is right.

Well apart from fact that cozying up to China doesn't increases one's autonomy. Out of the frying pan, into the fire?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2021, 04:17:22 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 04, 2021, 04:13:03 AMWell apart from fact that cozying up to China doesn't increases one's autonomy. Out of the frying pan, into the fire?
I agree on the substance. But I think there's no easy off-ramp for European politicians that doesn't end in a perception that they've folded under pressure from the US - which is the opposite of the image they want to give. And I think that will be a not insignificant driver in what happens now.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 04, 2021, 04:21:59 AM
So yet again short term political concerns take precedent.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 04, 2021, 04:25:19 AM
It's OK I am sure European industries will enjoy competing with slave labour prices :p
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2021, 04:31:59 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 04, 2021, 04:21:59 AM
So yet again short term political concerns take precedent.
I mean it's the nature of politics - it's the art of the possible and the successful statesmen are the ones who align the politics with the long-term vision/goal. In this context arguably Merkel's played it very well in that she has aligned the politics with this agreement.

I don't think we've been overly blessed with successful statesmen in a while (and this isn't just at country leader level it feels like lots of countries have lightweight/unimpressive cabinets behind them). I always wonder if that's just nostalgia/things were always better in the past view - but it reminds me of the 70s in terms of lots of countries seeming to have leaders who are just unequal to the task.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 04, 2021, 04:43:14 AM
This seems like a problem of their own making unless I'm mistaken and the EU populace as been clamoring for a China deal?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 04, 2021, 08:52:15 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 04, 2021, 04:43:14 AM
This seems like a problem of their own making unless I'm mistaken and the EU populace as been clamoring for a China deal?

I am pretty sure what the US call "lobbyists" were clamoring for it far more, though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2021, 09:04:30 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 04, 2021, 04:43:14 AM
This seems like a problem of their own making unless I'm mistaken and the EU populace as been clamoring for a China deal?
Totally agree - but I don't think that even in democracies the only bit of politics that matters are the people.

The EU and China set this artificial deadline. That creates pressure because no-one wants to fail. Merkel had identified it as a policy goal (theory: in the long-term Merkel's Eurasian focus/turn east on China, Russia, Turkey over the last 15 years will have more impact on the Atlantic alliance than Trump? :hmm:) for the German Presidency to focus on. That creates political pressure. Having made an agreement in principle to withdraw would be weak and folding under American pressure - again there are political incentives.

I think there was a really good column in the Economist about how inertia is the strongest force in European politics. Once the EU decides to do something it will normally do it because it takes a lot of effort/political capital to change that decision. I think that's definitely at play here.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on January 04, 2021, 09:06:27 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2021, 03:58:56 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 02, 2021, 02:41:54 AM
What's the positive spin on this agreement?
Just to add to this the Portuguese PM has now added another argument for the agreement that is, I think, true. Backing out now under American pressure would send a bad message about the EU when it's trying to behave as a strategically autonomous power. Politically that is right.

This is António Costa, what he says today can change very quickly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2021, 10:19:09 AM
The timing of this deal is interesting given China's recent treatment of Australia.  A cynic might say the EU is signalling they are happy to throw Australia under the bus and shut up about Uighur slave labor in exchange for more Luis Vuitton and BMW sales.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 04, 2021, 10:40:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2021, 10:19:09 AM
The timing of this deal is interesting given China's recent treatment of Australia.  A cynic might say the EU is signalling they are happy to throw Australia under the bus and shut up about Uighur slave labor in exchange for more Luis Vuitton and BMW sales.

You don't have to be a cynic because there is simply no other explanation why the EU would turn a blind eye to the literal enslavement of an entire nation of peoples.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 04, 2021, 02:49:28 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 04, 2021, 04:43:14 AM
This seems like a problem of their own making unless I'm mistaken and the EU populace as been clamoring for a China deal?

The EU doesn't have the habit of listening to what it's inhabitants want...

Quote from: Tamas on January 04, 2021, 10:40:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2021, 10:19:09 AM
The timing of this deal is interesting given China's recent treatment of Australia.  A cynic might say the EU is signalling they are happy to throw Australia under the bus and shut up about Uighur slave labor in exchange for more Luis Vuitton and BMW sales.

You don't have to be a cynic because there is simply no other explanation why the EU would turn a blind eye to the literal enslavement of an entire nation of peoples.

considering that the EU is also turning a blind eye to one of it's member states having a boatload of political prisoners.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 04, 2021, 05:47:10 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2021, 03:58:56 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 02, 2021, 02:41:54 AM
What's the positive spin on this agreement?
Just to add to this the Portuguese PM has now added another argument for the agreement that is, I think, true. Backing out now under American pressure would send a bad message about the EU when it's trying to behave as a strategically autonomous power. Politically that is right.

Better to go off the cliff then have to admit to your friends Mom was right . . .

it's not like the Biden people were taking out full page ads.  There are plenty of ways backing out can be explained without any reference to the US position.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 05, 2021, 01:41:47 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 02, 2021, 02:41:54 AM
What's the positive spin on this agreement?
It creates a more level playing field for European companies by removing several obstacles (tech transfer/JV in some industries, new access in other industries like healthcare).

Chinese companies were already fairly free to invest in Europe, but this agreement ogether with some new political instruments in 2019 enshrined that scrutiny and endorsement of Chinese investments moves from national capitals to Brussels, which will make China's divide & conquer tactics in Europe harder.

It also contains Chinese commitments for some ILO worker rights conventions (not signed by the US, so working with them on this issue seems a strange idea) and on SOEs, which is apparently the first time China ever engaged an external party about these.

Also as the EU officially sees China as a "systemic rival", but also a negotiation partner, I don't see why this agreement precludes common action with the US on topics of common concern regarding China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 05, 2021, 01:50:09 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 31, 2020, 09:09:45 AM
Quote from: Zanza on December 30, 2020, 09:20:04 AM
Is there any indication that Biden plans to stop the trade conflict the US started under Trump against Europe?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/biden-europe-trade-war-negotiate/2020/11/11/1e7e87c6-2440-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

Did you read the story?  it's about the Airbus/Boeing subsidy cases, which started under GWB and were pursed during the Obama administration.  Both cases were substantially justified under WTO rules.
Was just an example for the long-running trade disputes between US and EU. Here is a recent example where the USTR set new tariffs in response to new French tax, which might lead to another tit-for-tat between US and EU. If Biden wants to fix trade relations with Europe, he has a lot to do...
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-trade/2021/01/04/ustr-set-to-impose-tariffs-on-french-goods-in-tax-dispute-792544

Quote
QuoteThe US signed its own deal with the Chinese earlier this year and did not align that with the Europeans either.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/business/economy/china-trade-deal.amp.html

That was an agreement on trade in goods and services, not investment.  The US discussed a bilateral investment treaty with China but did not sign one.
Do you know if it contained provisions on human rights? Or just mercantilism for American farmers?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 05, 2021, 02:02:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2021, 10:19:09 AM
The timing of this deal is interesting given China's recent treatment of Australia.  A cynic might say the EU is signalling they are happy to throw Australia under the bus and shut up about Uighur slave labor in exchange for more Luis Vuitton and BMW sales.
Australia (and NZ, Japan Korea) signed RCEP, which has similar provisions as the EU/China CAI, with China less than two months ago and did not withdraw from that as far as I know.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 05, 2021, 02:33:45 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 05, 2021, 01:50:09 PM
Do you know if it contained provisions on human rights? Or just mercantilism for American farmers?

China is a member of the WTO so they are free to trade with any other WTO member on WTO terms.
The hitch is that Trump imposed unilateral tariffs anyway and then effectively neutered the WTO dispute resolution process by blocking the appointment of new appeals panel members.
Thus, the China trade agreement did not expand China's trading rights, it actually involved an implicit acceptance of arguably illegal restrictions that were less onerus than the ones Trump initially imposed.  In return, as you allude to, Trump got some verbal promises that he could put in a press release and that to no one's surprise have been ignored by China.

Unfortunately, China did not include human rights provisions so Trump was allowed to keep on violating human rights in the US.

If you want me to defend Trump's asinine trade policy, I can't and won't.  If you want to cite it as a policy model for the EU I beg to differ.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 06, 2021, 10:30:58 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/06/british-politicians-urge-eu-to-drop-china-deal-after-hong-kong-arrests

QuoteBritish politicians urge EU to drop China deal after Hong Kong arrests

The last British governor of Hong Kong has told the EU not to go ahead with an economic deal with China in the wake of the latest crackdown on the opposition in the territory.

The arrest of 53 people on charges of "subversion" led Lord Patten to tell the EU it would forfeit its right to be treated as a serious global economic and political power if it went ahead with the draft investment deal.

The draft has yet to be ratified by the European parliament, and Germany, the lead advocate of the deal, will come under intense pressure to justify the closer economic ties.

Patten, in remarks designed to resonate in Germany, said: "It is worth remembering, for all European politicians wherever they come from, that the Jewish community around the world has been outspoken about Xinjiang and in particular has drawn attention to the similarities between what is happening in that region today and the Holocaust in the 1940s."

He added: "If this deal goes ahead it will make a mockery of Europe's ambitions to be taken seriously as a global political and economic player. It spits in the face of human rights and shows a delusional view of the Chinese Communist party's trustworthiness on the international stage.

"It is surely inconceivable that the European parliament can support the miserable draft deal that the European commission wants to sign with Beijing.

"It is a massive strategic blunder at a time when [incoming] President [Joe] Biden will be seeking to put together an international partnership of liberal democracies to deal with the bullying loutish behaviour and assault on our international rules by Chinese Communists. We should not be seeking to contain China but to constrain the Chinese Communist party."

The EU called for the release of the arrested opposition figures on Wednesday and said it was considering further sanctions.

"We are currently analysing the situation to see how we might need to react. There are other possibilities open to us, sanctions for example," the European commission spokesperson Peter Stano told journalists.

"We call for the immediate release of the arrested people," Stano said.

Lisa Nandy, the Labour opposition's foreign affairs spokesperson, called for the British government to make a Commons statement on the arrests.

"Democracy is being dismantled in Hong Kong," she said. "China is undermining the rights and freedoms guaranteed under the Basic Law [Hong Kong's mini-constitution] and further disregarding its commitments under the Joint Declaration," which set out the terms of the return of the territory from the UK to China in 1997.

Her deputy, Stephen Kinnock, urged ministers to end the delay in the use of sanctions against individual Chinese officials behind the suppression.

The chair of the UK foreign affairs select committee, Tom Tugendhat, also challenged the EU saying: "The EU's China deal undermines freedom and democracy."

Norbert Röttgen, a candidate for the German CDU leadership and possible successor to Angela Merkel, said the EU could not ignore China's methods, including breach of contract and suppression.

Leading members of the European parliament demanded a response from the commission, including a credible explanation of how the commitments made by China in the investment deal can be policed and enforced.

Sabine Weyand, the lead EU commission official behind the deal, had only 24 hours earlier defended it partly on the basis that the EU was being asked to apply to its economic relationships moral standards not required of other blocs or countries.

She said the EU had used its negotiating leverage to obtain "WTO+ commitments on level playing field, market access and on sustainable development that benefit other partners as well, and should act as a springboard for global disciplines".

Other international politicians condemned the arrests.

Taiwan's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, tweeted: "The mass arrest in Hong Kong comes as a deep shock to those who treasure freedom."

Australia's foreign minister, Marise Payne, said the Australian government was concerned and was monitoring developments.

The Democratic chair of the US house foreign affairs committee, Gregory Meeks, said: "Beijing's national security law is being used to ruthlessly attack Hongkongers – last week by sentencing democracy activists, this week by arresting dozens of pro-democracy politicians for participating in last year's LegCo [legislature] primaries."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on January 06, 2021, 11:02:39 AM
No discussion about how China has been rounding up pro-democracy politicians in Hong Kong?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55555299
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 06, 2021, 11:09:53 AM
It might be one of the key items listed in my article :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 07:47:20 PM
Quote from: garbon on January 06, 2021, 10:30:58 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/06/british-politicians-urge-eu-to-drop-china-deal-after-hong-kong-arrests

QuoteBritish politicians urge EU to drop China deal after Hong Kong arrests

The last British governor of Hong Kong has told the EU not to go ahead with an economic deal with China in the wake of the latest crackdown on the opposition in the territory.

The arrest of 53 people on charges of "subversion" led Lord Patten to tell the EU it would forfeit its right to be treated as a serious global economic and political power if it went ahead with the draft investment deal.

The draft has yet to be ratified by the European parliament, and Germany, the lead advocate of the deal, will come under intense pressure to justify the closer economic ties.

Patten, in remarks designed to resonate in Germany, said: "It is worth remembering, for all European politicians wherever they come from, that the Jewish community around the world has been outspoken about Xinjiang and in particular has drawn attention to the similarities between what is happening in that region today and the Holocaust in the 1940s."

He added: "If this deal goes ahead it will make a mockery of Europe's ambitions to be taken seriously as a global political and economic player. It spits in the face of human rights and shows a delusional view of the Chinese Communist party's trustworthiness on the international stage.

"It is surely inconceivable that the European parliament can support the miserable draft deal that the European commission wants to sign with Beijing.

"It is a massive strategic blunder at a time when [incoming] President [Joe] Biden will be seeking to put together an international partnership of liberal democracies to deal with the bullying loutish behaviour and assault on our international rules by Chinese Communists. We should not be seeking to contain China but to constrain the Chinese Communist party."

The EU called for the release of the arrested opposition figures on Wednesday and said it was considering further sanctions.

"We are currently analysing the situation to see how we might need to react. There are other possibilities open to us, sanctions for example," the European commission spokesperson Peter Stano told journalists.

"We call for the immediate release of the arrested people," Stano said.

Lisa Nandy, the Labour opposition's foreign affairs spokesperson, called for the British government to make a Commons statement on the arrests.

"Democracy is being dismantled in Hong Kong," she said. "China is undermining the rights and freedoms guaranteed under the Basic Law [Hong Kong's mini-constitution] and further disregarding its commitments under the Joint Declaration," which set out the terms of the return of the territory from the UK to China in 1997.

Her deputy, Stephen Kinnock, urged ministers to end the delay in the use of sanctions against individual Chinese officials behind the suppression.

The chair of the UK foreign affairs select committee, Tom Tugendhat, also challenged the EU saying: "The EU's China deal undermines freedom and democracy."

Norbert Röttgen, a candidate for the German CDU leadership and possible successor to Angela Merkel, said the EU could not ignore China's methods, including breach of contract and suppression.

Leading members of the European parliament demanded a response from the commission, including a credible explanation of how the commitments made by China in the investment deal can be policed and enforced.

Sabine Weyand, the lead EU commission official behind the deal, had only 24 hours earlier defended it partly on the basis that the EU was being asked to apply to its economic relationships moral standards not required of other blocs or countries.

She said the EU had used its negotiating leverage to obtain "WTO+ commitments on level playing field, market access and on sustainable development that benefit other partners as well, and should act as a springboard for global disciplines".

Other international politicians condemned the arrests.

Taiwan's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, tweeted: "The mass arrest in Hong Kong comes as a deep shock to those who treasure freedom."

Australia's foreign minister, Marise Payne, said the Australian government was concerned and was monitoring developments.

The Democratic chair of the US house foreign affairs committee, Gregory Meeks, said: "Beijing's national security law is being used to ruthlessly attack Hongkongers – last week by sentencing democracy activists, this week by arresting dozens of pro-democracy politicians for participating in last year's LegCo [legislature] primaries."

A bit disappointing that the article did not present the full picture.  A bit more background.  There was supposed to be a legislative council election last year.  The rioters and pan-democrats formed a pact.  Gain a majority.  Then vote down every government bill and the budget, with the explicit aim of paralyzing the government, until the government surrendered to their demands.  The Chief Executive did warn them at the time that this pact would be considered subversion, and of course the warning was ignored. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on January 06, 2021, 08:01:46 PM
It is weird that some people in Hing Kong still thought that political parties other than the CCP were legal.  As the Chief Toady did warn them at the time, an agreement or pact on creation of a rival political party to implement alternate policies would be considered subversion, and it was.

Of course, every act is subversion, and the only difference is between subversion the Toady government decides to punish, and that which it decides to ignore.

it's not like we are fooled by the man behind the curtain.
(https://jimbuchan.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Wizard.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 08:12:52 PM
They revolted.  Who would have thought that revolting has consequences. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on January 06, 2021, 08:17:08 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 08:12:52 PM
They revolted.  Who would have thought that revolting has consequences.

Your revolting posts are likely reducing the respect other posters here have for you.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 08:19:44 PM
Quote from: mongers on January 06, 2021, 08:17:08 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 08:12:52 PM
They revolted.  Who would have thought that revolting has consequences.

Your revolting posts are likely reducing the respect other posters here have for you.

For me, the true purpose of languish is to say what I truly believe in  :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 06, 2021, 08:41:18 PM
Thank you for providing us the case study on banality of evil, I guess. :unsure:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 08:49:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 06, 2021, 08:41:18 PM
Thank you for providing us the case study on banality of evil, I guess. :unsure:

I like to call it apolitical. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 06, 2021, 08:51:25 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 08:49:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 06, 2021, 08:41:18 PM
Thank you for providing us the case study on banality of evil, I guess. :unsure:

I like to call it apolitical.
Interesting.  I can't wait to find out more of your likes and dislikes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on January 06, 2021, 09:19:49 PM
You can't be apolitical while calling one side thugs and cockroaches.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 09:40:43 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 06, 2021, 09:19:49 PM
You can't be apolitical while calling one side thugs and cockroaches.

Anybody who riots are thugs and cockroaches, regardless of the political context. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on January 06, 2021, 10:15:36 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 09:40:43 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 06, 2021, 09:19:49 PM
You can't be apolitical while calling one side thugs and cockroaches.

Anybody who riots are thugs and cockroaches, regardless of the political context.

That's an extreme political position.

But you know that.  What you may not know is that your schtick has worn so thin that I'd wish you'd take it back to your little Nazi thread in TBR, where I can ignore it.

You used to be one of my favorite posters.  I don't know whether you were always a massive douchebag and just successfully hid it before, whether you became a giant douchebag, or whether you've decided to pretend to be a giant douchebag for the Social Credit points, but it doesn't matter;  you post like a giant douchebag and I wish you'd do so out of my sight.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 10:24:59 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 08:12:52 PM
They revolted.  Who would have thought that revolting has consequences. 

Really? Every single person who was not a member of the CCP revolted?

Hong Kong must have a very small population.

How about all the crimes the CCP has committed? Are those ok?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 10:28:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 06, 2021, 10:24:59 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 08:12:52 PM
They revolted.  Who would have thought that revolting has consequences. 

Really? Every single person who was not a member of the CCP revolted?

Hong Kong must have a very small population.

How about all the crimes the CCP has committed? Are those ok?

Not sure what you mean when you say "every single person who was not a member of the CCP revolted".  Don't know what you are getting at.

The state has a monopoly on violence. 

Regardless of what the Party has done, there is no excuse for anyone to riot. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 10:34:45 PM
The latest news is that all the rioters and pan-democrats who were arrested yesterday would be released on bail.  No charges would be pressed for now. 

I actually have a lot of doubt if the charges will succeed even if they are pressed.  I don't think the goal is to secure a conviction in the first place.  The goal is to add to the already large number of cases they all face already.  Increase the cost of revolting, and encourage some of them to leave. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 10:45:17 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 10:28:53 PM
Regardless of what the Party has done, there is no excuse for anyone to riot.

You're ducking the question.

When Beijing breaks the law by, for example, kidnapping a HK resident, are they thugs and cockroaches?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 10:51:23 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 10:45:17 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 10:28:53 PM
Regardless of what the Party has done, there is no excuse for anyone to riot.

You're ducking the question.

When Beijing breaks the law by, for example, kidnapping a HK resident, are they thugs and cockroaches?

Kidnapping is wrong and criminal.  Not sure how that is related to what's happening now. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 10:57:19 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 10:51:23 PM
Kidnapping is wrong and criminal.  Not sure how that is related to what's happening now.

Both are breaking the law.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 11:00:49 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 10:57:19 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 10:51:23 PM
Kidnapping is wrong and criminal.  Not sure how that is related to what's happening now.

Both are breaking the law.

I have to obey the law.  Just because somebody else is breaking the law doesn't give me a legitimate excuse to break the law. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 11:04:32 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 11:00:49 PM
I have to obey the law.  Just because somebody else is breaking the law doesn't give me a legitimate excuse to break the law.

Absolutely. 

The question is why you call rioters thugs and cockroaches but not Beijing.

Is it something other than breaking the law that merits being called a thug and cockroach?  Perhaps it is an aesthetic judgement.  Maybe you don't like the way they dress, or their haircuts.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 11:15:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 11:04:32 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 11:00:49 PM
I have to obey the law.  Just because somebody else is breaking the law doesn't give me a legitimate excuse to break the law.

Absolutely. 

The question is why you call rioters thugs and cockroaches but not Beijing.

Is it something other than breaking the law that merits being called a thug and cockroach?  Perhaps it is an aesthetic judgement.  Maybe you don't like the way they dress, or their haircuts.

Ok.  If somebody murders someone, he is a murderer.  Is he a thug or a cockroach?  Let's just say I won't use those terms to describe a murderer. 

Why cockroach?  There are a couple of reasons why the term is used by pro-government groups to describe the rioters.  They wear black.  They are difficult to kill/arrest.  There are lots of them. They are everywhere.  These characteristics don't really apply to murderers or kidnappers. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 11:21:30 PM
I don't care why pro-government groups use the term, I care why you use the term, and that explanation sounds like bullshit.  and what about thug?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 11:32:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 11:21:30 PM
I don't care why pro-government groups use the term, I care why you use the term, and that explanation sounds like bullshit.  and what about thug?

I usually use rioters. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 11:42:55 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 11:32:16 PM
I usually use rioters.

But just now in this thread you didn't.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 11:56:32 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 11:42:55 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 11:32:16 PM
I usually use rioters.

But just now in this thread you didn't.

You used it first.  I responded :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 07, 2021, 01:06:10 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 11:56:32 PM
You used it first.  I responded :contract:

Eddie used it first.  Your doubled down.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 07, 2021, 02:50:23 AM
Quote from: grumbler on January 06, 2021, 10:15:36 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 06, 2021, 09:40:43 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 06, 2021, 09:19:49 PM
You can't be apolitical while calling one side thugs and cockroaches.

Anybody who riots are thugs and cockroaches, regardless of the political context.

That's an extreme political position.

But you know that.  What you may not know is that your schtick has worn so thin that I'd wish you'd take it back to your little Nazi thread in TBR, where I can ignore it.

You used to be one of my favorite posters.  I don't know whether you were always a massive douchebag and just successfully hid it before, whether you became a giant douchebag, or whether you've decided to pretend to be a giant douchebag for the Social Credit points, but it doesn't matter;  you post like a giant douchebag and I wish you'd do so out of my sight.

Indeed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on January 10, 2021, 06:03:03 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/09/asia/taiwan-us-restrictions-lifted-intl-hnk/index.html

I'm mixed...as I think normalization of relations with Taiwan and rejection of acceptance of the subjecting "one-China" policy is essential, the danger is that doing so part of the death throes of an administration is likely more dangerous than helpful.

If the CCP were to ever think that they needed the right window to move militarily on Taiwan, it is harder and harder to think that right now, or perhaps right after Biden swears in (presuming they have any doubts about improved relations with him in the seat), is that right time.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 10, 2021, 07:34:08 AM
I think the world has enough trouble for now.  COVID-19, the economy, an unruly US president, etc.  We really could use less risk now, not more. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 10, 2021, 12:54:53 PM
It's pure domestic politics and chalice poisoning - the idea is to put the incoming administration in the untenable position of escalating tension with a nuclear armed rival over the most combustible point of conflict or backing down to China.  They never dared take this step when they had a "president" in office.

Pompeo is a weasely coward.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 10, 2021, 01:47:17 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 10, 2021, 06:03:03 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/09/asia/taiwan-us-restrictions-lifted-intl-hnk/index.html

I'm mixed...as I think normalization of relations with Taiwan and rejection of acceptance of the subjecting "one-China" policy is essential, the danger is that doing so part of the death throes of an administration is likely more dangerous than helpful.

If the CCP were to ever think that they needed the right window to move militarily on Taiwan, it is harder and harder to think that right now, or perhaps right after Biden swears in (presuming they have any doubts about improved relations with him in the seat), is that right time.



Indeed. But then the same is true of a lot of trumps behaviour with China.
Obama was already pivoting against China, albeit in a talk nice but carry a big stick sort of way. Skillfully balancing things in the region.
Trump however with his far more bombastic approach and massive escalation may have been on the right path but he made it thoroughly toxic.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on January 10, 2021, 03:14:43 PM
I dunno.  Perhaps my biggest worry on Biden's presidency will be the foreign policy front.  Much of that team appears to be from the Obama camp (including his would-be SoS), and despite having more approval from the Euro-crowd, when it came to confronting the bad actors in the world, the Obama administration did not do very well (I think Clinton as SoS was a disaster, and Kerry only benefited by being mostly a non-entity).

I was watching an interview with Antony Blinken regarding Putin not long ago, and the naiveté of their initial thoughts about relations with Russia at that time was palpable.  I just hope that experience was instructive.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 10, 2021, 03:22:21 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 10, 2021, 03:14:43 PM
I dunno.  Perhaps my biggest worry on Biden's presidency will be the foreign policy front.  Much of that team appears to be from the Obama camp (including his would-be SoS), and despite having more approval from the Euro-crowd, when it came to confronting the bad actors in the world, the Obama administration did not do very well (I think Clinton as SoS was a disaster, and Kerry only benefited by being mostly a non-entity).

I was watching an interview with Antony Blinken regarding Putin not long ago, and the naiveté of their initial thoughts about relations with Russia at that time was palpable.  I just hope that experience was instructive.

I hope we can get back to ending the conflicts with Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran as I think that for the most part those countries are no threat to us and continuing to waste resources on them is foolish. We know where the trouble comes from: China and Russia, We need to disentangle ourselves from messing with minor countries like Libya and all that.

But even if we, for some stupid reason, still need to hand around in the Islamic world I really have a hard time seeing why we need to continue wasting resources battling impoverished regimes in Latin America.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on January 10, 2021, 04:48:51 PM
Venezuela:  I'm iffy on that. We should definitely support the anti-Maduro forces there...but would agree that any kind of direct intervention is unwise.

Cuba: Agree.  The Cuban-exile community needs to get over themselves.  We should definitely push more openness there, but closing them off is counterproductive.

Iran:  Hard disagree.  Iran, while maybe not a threat to us directly, they are very much a bad actor.  And they are not a just a bad actor hiding in their corner...they are working hard at undermining other states in the region (Syria, Yemen, etc.) in order to increase their own power/influence.  We might not like the regimes they're trying to undermine (I'm looking at you Saudi Arabia)...but I still think there is a definite need to confront their shenanigans.

Unfortunately, working against trouble from China/Russia means being involved, in some fashion, in minor countries like Libya (where Russia is actively engaged), because they certainly are.


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 11, 2021, 01:02:20 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 10, 2021, 04:48:51 PM
Iran:  Hard disagree.  Iran, while maybe not a threat to us directly, they are very much a bad actor.  And they are not a just a bad actor hiding in their corner...they are working hard at undermining other states in the region (Syria, Yemen, etc.) in order to increase their own power/influence.  We might not like the regimes they're trying to undermine (I'm looking at you Saudi Arabia)...but I still think there is a definite need to confront their shenanigans.

I am not sure there are any good choices there.  Too many mistakes over the last 100 years.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 11, 2021, 01:12:27 PM
Iran let's not forget is rather democratic. Irans actions depend a lot on Irans government. And a West that is looking to mend bridges will do well for Iranian politicians wanting the same.
Iran is probably the most reasonable and workable of the axis of evil
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 11, 2021, 01:20:48 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 11, 2021, 01:12:27 PM
Iran let's not forget is rather democratic. Irans actions depend a lot on Irans government. And a West that is looking to mend bridges will do well for Iranian politicians wanting the same.
Iran is probably the most reasonable and workable of the axis of evil

People in Iran get to vote, but a democracy it's not. No way the people can get rid of the real powers that be using just their vote. They can't even elect their cadidates of choice because all the ones that might be a danger to the regime get vetted out (if not worse).

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 01:22:30 PM
Iran is about as democratic as Hong Kong.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 11, 2021, 01:30:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 01:22:30 PM
Iran is about as democratic as Hong Kong.

What an odd thing to say
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on January 11, 2021, 01:35:18 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 11, 2021, 01:12:27 PM
Iran let's not forget is rather democratic. Irans actions depend a lot on Irans government. And a West that is looking to mend bridges will do well for Iranian politicians wanting the same.
Iran is probably the most reasonable and workable of the axis of evil

Iran has a facade of democracy.

Sure they have regular votes - but anyone overly critical of the regime isn't allowed to run.  And in any event most power is held by the unelected Supreme Leader, not the elected President.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 11, 2021, 05:55:53 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 11, 2021, 01:30:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 01:22:30 PM
Iran is about as democratic as Hong Kong.

What an odd thing to say

Technically pretty correct though.  Elections to select people from slates approved or controlled by the ruling class.
HK is still more liberal and the rule of law is still stronger but trend is not good.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 11, 2021, 06:16:56 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 11, 2021, 05:55:53 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 11, 2021, 01:30:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 01:22:30 PM
Iran is about as democratic as Hong Kong.

What an odd thing to say

Technically pretty correct though.  Elections to select people from slates approved or controlled by the ruling class.
HK is still more liberal and the rule of law is still stronger but trend is not good.

As you say HK has a long democratic history.  It is has been degraded and we are seeing much more overt control by the communists but simply equating one with the other ignores years of protest and struggle.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 11, 2021, 06:38:07 PM
Obviously iran isn't perfect. But we aren't comparing it with Sweden and Germany here. We are comparing it to China and North Korea.
I haven't paid attention to Iran at all in recent years but pre trump it did look to be normalising somewhat. Hong Kong as a comparison only stretches so far. The people above the democracy rely on the same power base.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on January 11, 2021, 07:56:51 PM
Iran is not more democratic than China, in that both have sham elections.  I'd argue that China's government is more representative of what its people want than Iran's is. Irn's government would be much more liberal if it's people had the choice, IMO, while China's would not.  The Chinese urban, educated types are reportedly okay with world domination, even if it means some risk.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 11, 2021, 08:40:24 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 11, 2021, 07:56:51 PM
Iran is not more democratic than China, in that both have sham elections.  I'd argue that China's government is more representative of what its people want than Iran's is. Irn's government would be much more liberal if it's people had the choice, IMO, while China's would not.  The Chinese urban, educated types are reportedly okay with world domination, even if it means some risk.

Based on anecdotal observations: there's a sizeable minority of the Chinese middle class who are not okay with the nationalist chauvinism the CCP is peddling. There's a larger proportion who buy it pretty much hook, line, and sinker. And then there's a whole bunch who don't really care that much and only worry about their day to day life.

I would expect if China had open elections right now, various flavours of hard nationalism would do well given the indoctrination everyone's had. But plenty of people question it too... just mostly in private, for reasons that make sense when you live in a place like China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 09:43:12 PM
If there are free and fair elections in Mainland China, I expect the communists to win handily.  People grumble about the party all the time but also realise that the communists have delivered years of stability and prosperity.  There is also no real alternative.

If there are free and fair elections in Hong Kong, the rioters will win easily.  They'll want to kick all the Mainlanders out, not allow Mainland tourists in, stop Mainland immigration, stop Mainlanders from buying HK property, etc. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 09:47:58 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 09:43:12 PM
There is also no real alternative.

Have you considered the possibility this might have something to do with the fact that it's illegal?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 09:53:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 09:47:58 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 09:43:12 PM
There is also no real alternative.

Have you considered the possibility this might have something to do with the fact that it's illegal?

Sure.  And?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 10:01:17 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 09:53:14 PM
Sure.  And?

And if it were made legal an alternative would arise.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:16:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 10:01:17 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 09:53:14 PM
Sure.  And?

And if it were made legal an alternative would arise.

Of course.  But the reality at the moment is, there is no real alternative. 

You know what, I am not sure you really want that alternative to arise.  A material portion of the Chinese population are very nationalistic, and want to go to war with Taiwan.  They think they'll win easily.  If there is an alternative, that party could call for an immediate invasion of Taiwan, war with Japan to reclaim some island, war with Vietnam to reclaim some historical land, etc. 

And a democratically elected central government will probably end One Country; Two Systems in Hong Kong immediately, and execute the HK rioters on a massive scale. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 10:17:57 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:16:21 PM
Of course.  But the reality at the moment is, there is no real alternative. 

Sure.  And?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:21:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 10:17:57 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:16:21 PM
Of course.  But the reality at the moment is, there is no real alternative. 

Sure.  And?

:lol:  If there are free and fair elections in Mainland China, the communists will win :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 10:31:05 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:21:14 PM
:lol:  If there are free and fair elections in Mainland China, the communists will win :contract:

If there are free and fair elections in China, opposition parties and candidates will legal, and there will be an alternative to Communist rule.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 11, 2021, 10:38:07 PM
If there were free and fair elections in China, the CCP would eventually split into multiple parties.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:40:25 PM
The real problem will come next year, when Xi's time will be up.  Everybody expects him to stay for at least five more years.  The question is will he appoint a successor who will succeed him in 2027. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 11, 2021, 11:43:08 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:40:25 PM
The real problem will come next year, when Xi's time will be up.  Everybody expects him to stay for at least five more years.  The question is will he appoint a successor who will succeed him in 2027.

Is it in question anymore? Isn't he planning on staying Chairman for life?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 11:48:53 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 11, 2021, 11:43:08 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:40:25 PM
The real problem will come next year, when Xi's time will be up.  Everybody expects him to stay for at least five more years.  The question is will he appoint a successor who will succeed him in 2027.

Is it in question anymore? Isn't he planning on staying Chairman for life?

We are not really sure.  He maybe planning that, but there are other factions.  We'll have a better idea at the 20th party congress, which should take place next year. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 12, 2021, 12:10:32 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:16:21 PM
A material portion of the Chinese population are very nationalistic, and want to go to war with Taiwan.  They think they'll win easily.  If there is an alternative, that party could call for an immediate invasion of Taiwan, war with Japan to reclaim some island, war with Vietnam to reclaim some historical land, etc.

Naturally the CCP has spent decades indoctrinating them to want those things. So we must preserve the CCP in order to save us from the CCP? Fascinating.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 12, 2021, 12:19:35 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 09:43:12 PM
If there are free and fair elections in Hong Kong, the rioters will win easily.  They'll want to kick all the Mainlanders out, not allow Mainland tourists in, stop Mainland immigration, stop Mainlanders from buying HK property, etc. 

Maybe. But the thing about free and fair elections is that you get more than one. Eventually the rioters would lose.

Actually can I refer to the CCP as the concentration camp genociders? So long as their opponents are called rioters I guess it would only be fair.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 12, 2021, 12:23:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 12, 2021, 12:19:35 AM
Maybe. But the thing about free and fair elections is that you get more than one. Eventually the rioters would lose.

They wouldn't be rioting if there were free and fair elections.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 12, 2021, 12:27:29 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 12, 2021, 12:10:32 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 11, 2021, 10:16:21 PM
A material portion of the Chinese population are very nationalistic, and want to go to war with Taiwan.  They think they'll win easily.  If there is an alternative, that party could call for an immediate invasion of Taiwan, war with Japan to reclaim some island, war with Vietnam to reclaim some historical land, etc.

Naturally the CCP has spent decades indoctrinating them to want those things. So we must preserve the CCP in order to save us from the CCP? Fascinating.

It isn't up to the US  :P  You and I are merely spectators. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 12, 2021, 12:30:54 AM
Valmy's making an argument about enlightened self interest, not moral responsibility.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on January 12, 2021, 02:23:26 AM
It's like the arab spring, hhen Egypt went democratic the people immediately wanted to declare war on Israel. I imagine the same would happen in China. Well, not war on Israel, but Taiwan perhaps.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 12, 2021, 03:48:23 AM
Quote from: grumbler on January 11, 2021, 07:56:51 PM
Iran is not more democratic than China, in that both have sham elections.  I'd argue that China's government is more representative of what its people want than Iran's is. Irn's government would be much more liberal if it's people had the choice, IMO, while China's would not.  The Chinese urban, educated types are reportedly okay with world domination, even if it means some risk.
Iffy.
Tehranites for sure would rather have something far more liberal than what they do have.
All signs suggest the rural majority is far more conservative than the very western city folks.

Though I'd definitely agree the balance is less in favour of keeping things as they are than in China I don't think we can call it a majority.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 12, 2021, 06:19:30 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 12, 2021, 12:23:11 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 12, 2021, 12:19:35 AM
Maybe. But the thing about free and fair elections is that you get more than one. Eventually the rioters would lose.

They wouldn't be rioting if there were free and fair elections.

exactly
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 12, 2021, 10:47:49 AM
A lengthy, but impactful read. Below is mainly just the background/setup; link continues with the recall of life in the camps. :(

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/12/uighur-xinjiang-re-education-camp-china-gulbahar-haitiwaji

Quote'Our souls are dead': how I survived a Chinese 're-education' camp for Uighurs

The man on the phone said he worked for the oil company, "In accounting, actually". His voice was unfamiliar to me. At first, I couldn't make sense of what he was calling about. It was November 2016, and I had been on unpaid leave from the company since I left China and moved to France 10 years earlier. There was static on the line; I had a hard time hearing him.

"You must come back to Karamay to sign documents concerning your forthcoming retirement, Madame Haitiwaji," he said. Karamay was the city in the western Chinese province of Xinjiang where I'd worked for the oil company for more than 20 years.

"In that case, I'd like to grant power of attorney," I said. "A friend of mine in Karamay takes care of my administrative affairs. Why should I come back for some paperwork? Why go all that way for such a trifle? Why now?"

The man had no answers for me. He simply said he would call me back in two days after looking into the possibility of letting my friend act on my behalf.

My husband, Kerim, had left Xinjiang in 2002 to look for work. He tried first in Kazakhstan, but came back disillusioned after a year. Then in Norway. Then France, where he had applied for asylum. Once he was settled there, our two girls and I would join him.

Kerim had always known he would leave Xinjiang. The idea had taken root even before we were hired by the oil company. We had met as students in Urumqi, the largest city in Xinjiang province, and, as new graduates, had begun looking for work. This was in 1988. In the job ads in the newspapers, there was often a little phrase in small print: No Uighurs. This never left him. While I tried to overlook the evidence of discrimination that followed us everywhere, with Kerim, it became an obsession.

After graduation, we were offered jobs as engineers at the oil company in Karamay. We were lucky. But then there was the red envelope episode. At lunar new year, when the boss handed out the annual bonuses, the red envelopes given to Uighur workers contained less than those given to our colleagues who belonged to China's dominant ethnic group, the Han. Soon after, all the Uighurs were transferred out of the central office and moved to the outskirts of town. A small group objected, but I didn't dare. A few months later, when a senior position came up, Kerim applied. He had the right qualifications and the seniority. There was no reason he shouldn't get the position. But the post went to an employee who belonged to a Han worker who didn't even have an engineering degree. One night in 2000, Kerim came home and announced that he had quit. "I've had enough," he said.

What my husband was experiencing was all too familiar. Since 1955, when communist China annexed Xinjiang as an "autonomous region", we Uighurs have been seen as a thorn in the side of the Middle Kingdom. Xinjiang is a strategic corridor and far too valuable for China's ruling Communist party to risk losing control of it. The party has invested too much in the "new silk road", the infrastructure project designed to link China to Europe via central Asia, of which our region is an important axis. Xinjiang is essential to President Xi Jinping's great plan – that is, a peaceful Xinjiang, open for business, cleansed of its separatist tendencies and its ethnic tensions. In short, Xinjiang without Uighurs.

My daughters and I fled to France to join my husband in May 2006, just before Xinjiang entered an unprecedented period of repression. My daughters, 13 and 8 at the time, were given refugee status, as was their father. In seeking asylum, my husband had made a clean break with the past. Obtaining a French passport in effect stripped him of his Chinese nationality. For me, the prospect of turning in my passport held a terrible implication: I would never be able to return to Xinjiang. How could I ever say goodbye to my roots, to the loved ones I'd left behind – my parents, my brothers and sisters, their children? I imagined my mother, getting on in years, dying alone in her village in the northern mountains. Giving up my Chinese nationality meant giving up on her, too. I couldn't bring myself to do it. So instead, I'd applied for a residence permit that was renewable every 10 years.

After the phone call, my head was buzzing with questions as I looked around the quiet living room of our apartment in Boulogne. Why did that man want me to go back to Karamay? Was it a ploy so the police could interrogate me? Nothing like this had happened to any of the other Uighurs I knew in France.

The man called back two days later. "Granting power of attorney will not be possible, Madame Haitiwaji. You must come to Karamay in person." I gave in. After all, it was only a matter of a few documents.

"Fine. I'll be there as soon as I can," I said.

When I hung up, a shiver ran down my spine. I dreaded going back to Xinjiang. Kerim had been doing his best to reassure me for two days now, but I had a bad feeling about it. At this time of year, Karamay city was in the grip of a brutal winter. Gusts of icy wind howled down the avenues, between the shops, houses and apartment buildings. A few bundled-up figures braved the elements, hugging the walls, but on the whole, there was not a soul to be seen. But what I feared most of all were the ever-stricter measures regulating Xinjiang. Anyone who set foot outside their home could be arrested for no reason at all.

...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 13, 2021, 03:20:13 PM
Well this is dissapointing news. This guy has really started to break through as an up and coming comedian in the uk

BBC News - Uncle Roger comedian deletes video with China critic
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55651798

BBCs app has stopped copy pasting <_<
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 13, 2021, 03:26:24 PM
Also :ph34r: :blink:
QuoteHuawei patent mentions use of Uighur-spotting tech
By Leo Kelion
Technology desk editor

A Huawei patent has been brought to light for a system that identifies people who appear to be of Uighur origin among images of pedestrians.

The filing is one of several of its kind involving leading Chinese technology companies, discovered by a US research company and shared with BBC News.

Huawei had previously said none of its technologies was designed to identify ethnic groups.

It now plans to alter the patent.


Forced-labour camps

The company indicated this would involve asking the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA) - the country's patent authority - for permission to delete the reference to Uighurs in the Chinese-language document.

Uighur people belong to a mostly Muslim ethnic group that lives mainly in Xinjiang province, in north-western China.

Government authorities are accused of using high-tech surveillance against them and detaining many in forced-labour camps, where children are sometimes separated from their parents.

Beijing says the camps offer voluntary education and training.

"One technical requirement of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security's video-surveillance networks is the detection of ethnicity - particularly of Uighurs," said Maya Wang, from Human Rights Watch.

"While in the rest of the world, such targeting and persecution of a people on the basis of their ethnicity would be completely unacceptable, the persecution and severe discrimination of Uighurs in many aspects of life in China remain unchallenged because Uighurs have no power in China."

Body movements

Huawei's patent was originally filed in July 2018, in conjunction with the Chinese Academy of Sciences .

It describes ways to use deep-learning artificial-intelligence techniques to identify various features of pedestrians photographed or filmed in the street.

It focuses on addressing the fact different body postures - for example whether someone is sitting or standing - can affect accuracy.

But the document also lists attributes by which a person might be targeted, which it says can include "race (Han [China's biggest ethnic group], Uighur)".


A spokesman said this reference should not have been included.

"Huawei opposes discrimination of all types, including the use of technology to carry out ethnic discrimination," he said.

"Identifying individuals' race was never part of the research-and-development project.


"It should never have become part of the application.

"And we are taking proactive steps to amend it.

"We are continuously working to ensure new and evolving technology is developed and applied with the utmost care and integrity."

'Confidential' document

The patent was brought to light by the video-surveillance research group IPVM.

It had previously flagged a separate "confidential" document on Huawei's website, referencing work on a "Uighur alert" system.

In that case, Huawei said the page referenced a test rather than a real-world application and denied selling systems that identified people by their ethnicity.


On Wednesday, Tom Tugendhat, who chairs the UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Select Committee and leads the Conservative Party's China Research Group, told BBC News: "Chinese tech giants supporting the brutal assault on the Uighur population show us why we as consumers and as a society must be careful with who we buy our products from or award business to.

"Developing ethnic-labelling technology for use by a repressive regime is clearly not behaviour that lives up to our standards."

Facial-recognition software

IPVM also discovered references to Uighur people in patents filed by the Chinese artificial-intelligence company Sensetime and image-recognition specialist Megvii.

Sensetime's filing, from July 2019, discusses ways facial-recognition software could be used for more efficient "security protection", such as searching for "a middle-aged Uighur with sunglasses and a beard" or a Uighur person wearing a mask.

A Sensetime spokeswoman said the references were "regrettable".

"We understand the importance of our responsibilities, which is why we began to develop our AI Code of Ethics in mid-2019," she said, adding the patent had predated this code.


Ethnic-labelling solutions

Megvii's June 2019 patent, meanwhile, described a way of relabelling pictures of faces tagged incorrectly in a database.

It said the classifications could be based on ethnicity, for example, including "Han, Uighur, non-Han, non-Uighur and unknown".

The company told BBC News it would now withdraw the patent application.

"Megvii recognises that the language used in our 2019 patent application is open to misunderstanding," it said.


"Megvii has not developed and will not develop or sell racial- or ethnic-labelling solutions.

"Megvii acknowledges that, in the past, we have focused on our commercial development and lacked appropriate control of our marketing, sales, and operations materials.

"We are undertaking measures to correct the situation."

Attribute-recognition model

IPVM also flagged image-recognition patents filed by two of China's biggest technology conglomerates, Alibaba and Baidu, that referenced classifying people by ethnicity but did not specifically mention the Uighur people by name.

Alibaba responded: "Racial or ethnic discrimination or profiling in any form violates our policies and values.

"We never intended our technology to be used for and will not permit it to be used for targeting specific ethnic groups."

And Baidu said: "When filing for a patent, the document notes are meant as an example of a technical explanation, in this case describing what the attribute-recognition model is rather than representing the expected implementation of the invention.

"We do not and will not permit our technology to be used to identify or target specific ethnic groups."

But Human Rights Watch said it still had concerns.

"Any company that sells video-surveillance software and systems to the Chinese police would have to ensure that they meet the police's requirements, which includes the capacity for ethnicity detection," Ms Wang said.

"The right thing for these companies to do is to immediately cease their sale and maintenance of surveillance equipment, software and systems, to the Chinese police."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on January 13, 2021, 03:28:13 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 13, 2021, 03:20:13 PM
Well this is dissapointing news. This guy has really started to break through as an up and coming comedian in the uk

BBC News - Uncle Roger comedian deletes video with China critic
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55651798

BBCs app has stopped copy pasting <_<

I watch this guys videos.  He's funny but kind-of one note.  I even watched the banned video last night - was pretty innocuous - just made fun of this guys dumpling-making skills.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 13, 2021, 03:29:18 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 13, 2021, 03:26:24 PM
Also :ph34r: :blink:
QuoteHuawei patent mentions use of Uighur-spotting tech
By Leo Kelion
Technology desk editor

A Huawei patent has been brought to light for a system that identifies people who appear to be of Uighur origin among images of pedestrians.

The filing is one of several of its kind involving leading Chinese technology companies, discovered by a US research company and shared with BBC News.

Huawei had previously said none of its technologies was designed to identify ethnic groups.

It now plans to alter the patent.


Forced-labour camps

The company indicated this would involve asking the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA) - the country's patent authority - for permission to delete the reference to Uighurs in the Chinese-language document.

Uighur people belong to a mostly Muslim ethnic group that lives mainly in Xinjiang province, in north-western China.

Government authorities are accused of using high-tech surveillance against them and detaining many in forced-labour camps, where children are sometimes separated from their parents.

Beijing says the camps offer voluntary education and training.

"One technical requirement of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security's video-surveillance networks is the detection of ethnicity - particularly of Uighurs," said Maya Wang, from Human Rights Watch.

"While in the rest of the world, such targeting and persecution of a people on the basis of their ethnicity would be completely unacceptable, the persecution and severe discrimination of Uighurs in many aspects of life in China remain unchallenged because Uighurs have no power in China."

Body movements

Huawei's patent was originally filed in July 2018, in conjunction with the Chinese Academy of Sciences .

It describes ways to use deep-learning artificial-intelligence techniques to identify various features of pedestrians photographed or filmed in the street.

It focuses on addressing the fact different body postures - for example whether someone is sitting or standing - can affect accuracy.

But the document also lists attributes by which a person might be targeted, which it says can include "race (Han [China's biggest ethnic group], Uighur)".


A spokesman said this reference should not have been included.

"Huawei opposes discrimination of all types, including the use of technology to carry out ethnic discrimination," he said.

"Identifying individuals' race was never part of the research-and-development project.


"It should never have become part of the application.

"And we are taking proactive steps to amend it.

"We are continuously working to ensure new and evolving technology is developed and applied with the utmost care and integrity."

'Confidential' document

The patent was brought to light by the video-surveillance research group IPVM.

It had previously flagged a separate "confidential" document on Huawei's website, referencing work on a "Uighur alert" system.

In that case, Huawei said the page referenced a test rather than a real-world application and denied selling systems that identified people by their ethnicity.


On Wednesday, Tom Tugendhat, who chairs the UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Select Committee and leads the Conservative Party's China Research Group, told BBC News: "Chinese tech giants supporting the brutal assault on the Uighur population show us why we as consumers and as a society must be careful with who we buy our products from or award business to.

"Developing ethnic-labelling technology for use by a repressive regime is clearly not behaviour that lives up to our standards."

Facial-recognition software

IPVM also discovered references to Uighur people in patents filed by the Chinese artificial-intelligence company Sensetime and image-recognition specialist Megvii.

Sensetime's filing, from July 2019, discusses ways facial-recognition software could be used for more efficient "security protection", such as searching for "a middle-aged Uighur with sunglasses and a beard" or a Uighur person wearing a mask.

A Sensetime spokeswoman said the references were "regrettable".

"We understand the importance of our responsibilities, which is why we began to develop our AI Code of Ethics in mid-2019," she said, adding the patent had predated this code.


Ethnic-labelling solutions

Megvii's June 2019 patent, meanwhile, described a way of relabelling pictures of faces tagged incorrectly in a database.

It said the classifications could be based on ethnicity, for example, including "Han, Uighur, non-Han, non-Uighur and unknown".

The company told BBC News it would now withdraw the patent application.

"Megvii recognises that the language used in our 2019 patent application is open to misunderstanding," it said.


"Megvii has not developed and will not develop or sell racial- or ethnic-labelling solutions.

"Megvii acknowledges that, in the past, we have focused on our commercial development and lacked appropriate control of our marketing, sales, and operations materials.

"We are undertaking measures to correct the situation."

Attribute-recognition model

IPVM also flagged image-recognition patents filed by two of China's biggest technology conglomerates, Alibaba and Baidu, that referenced classifying people by ethnicity but did not specifically mention the Uighur people by name.

Alibaba responded: "Racial or ethnic discrimination or profiling in any form violates our policies and values.

"We never intended our technology to be used for and will not permit it to be used for targeting specific ethnic groups."

And Baidu said: "When filing for a patent, the document notes are meant as an example of a technical explanation, in this case describing what the attribute-recognition model is rather than representing the expected implementation of the invention.

"We do not and will not permit our technology to be used to identify or target specific ethnic groups."

But Human Rights Watch said it still had concerns.

"Any company that sells video-surveillance software and systems to the Chinese police would have to ensure that they meet the police's requirements, which includes the capacity for ethnicity detection," Ms Wang said.

"The right thing for these companies to do is to immediately cease their sale and maintenance of surveillance equipment, software and systems, to the Chinese police."

God...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 21, 2021, 03:52:29 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/china-deal-damages-eus-human-rights-credibility-meps-to-say

QuoteChina deal damages EU's human rights credibility, MEPs to say

European commission will come under fire over agreement that is already causing tensions with US

Transatlantic tensions over how to handle China will come into the open next week when MEPs condemn the European commission for rushing to sign a controversial investment agreement with China that they say undermines the EU's credibility on human rights.

The criticism, echoing views held inside the Biden administration in the US, will confirm the view of those including the UK that believe the determination of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, to secure the China deal, and assert European autonomy from Washington on China, was a geopolitical blunder. The EU had set a deadline of the end of 2020 to reach the agreement.

The most complete analysis of the agreement yet published by the Institut Montaigne finds the agreement could not have been negotiated at a worse time, provides minimal additional market access and contains currently "next to no means" to enforce Chinese assurances over the eradication of forced labour.

The commission oversold the deal, largely due to pressure from Merkel, the report's author, François Godement, told the Guardian.

The agreement, already a source of tension between the EU and the Biden administration, is due to be published in full on Friday, and the European parliament is set to pass a resolution next week condemning the way the agreement was rushed through and undermined the EU's credibility on global human rights.

MEPs have a right to ratify the agreement and, according to Godement, this may take as long as a year. The delay will give the US time to seek changes to the agreement if it feels necessary.

The new secretary of state, Antony Blinken, told the Senate on Tuesday that he believed China was committing genocide in Xinjiang province, remarks that indicate the Biden team are going to push a tough trade approach to Beijing.


A motion due to be passed by the European parliament next week will "regret the fact that the decision for a political conclusion of the comprehensive agreement on investment (CAI) has not reflected the European parliament's requests in previous resolutions on Hong Kong for using investment negotiations as a leverage tool aiming at preserving Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy, as well as its basic rights and freedoms".

Godement argues the deal allows China "to build on Europe's claims to have advanced its values while escaping enforcement and remedies on the issues that are at the heart of current public debates: environment and labour".

He added: "Given China's track record, it is impossible to rely on goodwill to implement commitments and unwise to believe that on key issues, a top-down political process between both parties can be substituted to legal arbitration.


"On WTO-plus issues, the deal fails to put a secure mechanism of implementation in place."

No deadline is set for China to meet its International Labour Organization obligations.

He says that the EU is risking disaster for its interests and irrelevance for its values by going it alone and overestimating its potential for "strategic autonomy".

British diplomats, meanwhile, see the EU-China investment deal as a potential opening for the UK to offer itself as a better ally to the US on China than the EU.

But the British effort to portray itself as Biden's true ally on China is weakened by the fact that, whatever the rhetoric of Boris Johnson's government, UK investment in China is growing fast.

Foreign investment into China is up 6.2% to just under 1tn RMB (£110bn) in 2020, with the UK as one of the largest investors. British investment into China increased by 31% year-on-year, second only to the Netherlands in terms of investment growth.


The UK government is also resisting a human rights confrontation with China. It fended off an all-party effort to give the courts a chance to designate China guilty of genocide on the day that Blinken said China was intent on genocide in Xinjiang province.

The UK has not, unlike the US government, imposed any sanctions on Chinese officials for their role in suppressing democracy in Hong Kong, or for setting up "rehabilitation" camps for Uighur Muslims.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 23, 2021, 03:16:50 PM
So the current Chinese rumour mill is that Xi recently had brain surgery and that it "went well" meaning he survived. However the metaphor used was "a leaking water pipe fixed with tape." He can do things like stringing eight words together, according to the rumours, but it leaves him exhausted. He hasn't been seen in public recently, and any sightings in the near future are likely to be a body double wearing mask and hat

I don't know how much truth there is to it, but I'm putting it down for those who are interested.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on January 23, 2021, 03:22:45 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/Y2L5kJsZ/wtp.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 23, 2021, 03:26:22 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 23, 2021, 03:16:50 PM
So the current Chinese rumour mill is that Xi recently had brain surgery and that it "went well" meaning he survived. However the metaphor used was "a leaking water pipe fixed with tape." He can do things like stringing eight words together, according to the rumours, but it leaves him exhausted. He hasn't been seen in public recently, and any sightings in the near future are likely to be a body double wearing mask and hat

I don't know how much truth there is to it, but I'm putting it down for those who are interested.
No desire to wish death on him but I do wish him a happy a few decades spending all his time playing golf or mahjong or whatever he's into.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 23, 2021, 03:29:42 PM
I'm going to attent this online event on Monday eve.

https://www.csw.org.uk/2020/12/23/event/4933/article.htm

25 January 2021: Together for Uyghurs a Holocaust Memorial event
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 23, 2021, 04:07:09 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 23, 2021, 03:16:50 PM
So the current Chinese rumour mill is that Xi recently had brain surgery and that it "went well" meaning he survived. However the metaphor used was "a leaking water pipe fixed with tape." He can do things like stringing eight words together,

Huh so now China has its own Trump
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 23, 2021, 04:17:16 PM
I have a hard time believing such rumors from highly repressive states.  So often these rumors turn out to be completely baseless.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on January 23, 2021, 04:49:03 PM
Does it really matter?  I expect any new boss will be about the same as the old boss.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 23, 2021, 05:40:14 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 23, 2021, 04:17:16 PM
I have a hard time believing such rumors from highly repressive states.  So often these rumors turn out to be completely baseless.

Yeah, it could be purely memetic warfare for sure.

On the other hand, listening to "the Chinese rumour mill" put me ahead by about two months when it came to the Coronavirus, and a few days to a week (and more detail) during the Bo Xilai coup attempt when Xi succeeded. So sometimes it turns out to be true.

But yeah, I wouldn't bet any money on any of it. It's more of a hobby really - see what the rumour is and compare it against events later. Which is why I'm posting it here, so I can look back later and go "yeah that was nothing but hot air" or "oh that looks like it was accurate."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on January 23, 2021, 05:41:27 PM
Flex Tape or regular?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 23, 2021, 05:44:53 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 23, 2021, 04:49:03 PM
Does it really matter?  I expect any new boss will be about the same as the old boss.

From your perspective, probably not.

But had someone other than Xi succeeded Hu then things might have turned out different in Hong Kong. The shape of the Uighur genocide might have been different too; could've just been garden variety oppression for example. Or worse too, I suppose.

And if Xi loses control now rather than at some point in the future - given his apparent desire to hang on for longer than CCP convention - then there's no guarantee that his successor will have the same combination of intellectual insufficiency, insecurity, and belligerence and that could in fact have a significant impact even if they're from the same faction and has the same policy objectives. And if a potential successor is from a different clique then the policy objectives could change too.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 23, 2021, 05:48:05 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 23, 2021, 05:44:53 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 23, 2021, 04:49:03 PM
Does it really matter?  I expect any new boss will be about the same as the old boss.

From your perspective, probably not.

But had someone other than Xi succeeded Wen then things might have turned out different in Hong Kong. The shape of the Uighur genocide might have been different too; could've just been garden variety oppression for example. Or worse too, I suppose.

And if Xi loses control now rather than at some point in the future - given his apparent desire to hang on for longer than CCP convention - then there's no guarantee that his successor will have the same combination of intellectual insufficiency, insecurity, and belligerence and that could in fact have a significant impact even if they're from the same faction and has the same policy objectives. And if a potential successor is from a different clique then the policy objectives could change too.

Xi succeeded Hu, not Wen.  Wen was premier under Hu, and premier is usually either #2 or #3  :secret:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 23, 2021, 05:50:25 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 23, 2021, 05:48:05 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 23, 2021, 05:44:53 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 23, 2021, 04:49:03 PM
Does it really matter?  I expect any new boss will be about the same as the old boss.

From your perspective, probably not.

But had someone other than Xi succeeded Wen then things might have turned out different in Hong Kong. The shape of the Uighur genocide might have been different too; could've just been garden variety oppression for example. Or worse too, I suppose.

And if Xi loses control now rather than at some point in the future - given his apparent desire to hang on for longer than CCP convention - then there's no guarantee that his successor will have the same combination of intellectual insufficiency, insecurity, and belligerence and that could in fact have a significant impact even if they're from the same faction and has the same policy objectives. And if a potential successor is from a different clique then the policy objectives could change too.

Xi succeeded Hu, not Wen.  Wen was premier under Hu, and premier is usually either #2 or #3  :secret:

Right  :lol:

I'll fix it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 23, 2021, 06:06:45 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 23, 2021, 04:17:16 PM
I have a hard time believing such rumors from highly repressive states.  So often these rumors turn out to be completely baseless.

You mean how the actual Vladimir Putin died years ago and the current Putin is a series of doubles under control of the shadowy Russian security state? I don't see anything baseless about that. All facts point to it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 06:14:19 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 23, 2021, 05:48:05 PM
Xi succeeded Hu, not Wen.  Wen was premier under Hu, and premier is usually either #2 or #3  :secret:

Hu's on first?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 23, 2021, 06:15:21 PM
Wen's on second. I don't know is on 3rd.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 06:19:17 PM
Wen do they play?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 23, 2021, 06:22:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 06:19:17 PM
Wen do they play?

Wen's on second.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 23, 2021, 06:22:45 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 23, 2021, 06:15:21 PM
Wen's on second. I don't know is on 3rd.

Wen's third.  Wu Bangguo, Chairman of the People's Congress, was second.  During Hu's time, premier was #3.  The Politburo Standing Committee has a very strict and clear order.  Everybody knows his place. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 23, 2021, 06:24:09 PM
Wu? That doesn't work at all.  :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 06:26:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 23, 2021, 06:22:45 PM
During Hu's time, premier was #3.

That's what I'm asking!  During Hu's time??   :mad:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 23, 2021, 06:29:32 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 06:26:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 23, 2021, 06:22:45 PM
During Hu's time, premier was #3.

That's what I'm asking!  During Hu's time??   :mad:

Exactly. Hu's time.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on January 23, 2021, 06:31:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 06:14:19 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 23, 2021, 05:48:05 PM
Xi succeeded Hu, not Wen.  Wen was premier under Hu, and premier is usually either #2 or #3  :secret:

Hu's on first?

Xi's on second.

A standard joke in my world history class unit on China was:

Me:  Hu's the President of China.

Students:  I don't know.

Me:  I wasn't asking.

Students: [Quick Google search] Ha.  Ha.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 23, 2021, 06:36:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 06:26:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 23, 2021, 06:22:45 PM
During Hu's time, premier was #3.

That's what I'm asking!  During Hu's time??   :mad:

Long story.  During Tiananmen, premier was #2.  The premier at the time was Li Pang.  He was the face of the conservatives at the time.  But he was widely considered to be ineffective, not very bright, and too hardline, etc.  When Jiang took over after Tiananmen, he wanted his own premier.  So he kicked Li Peng upstairs to be the less influential Chairman of the People's Congress.  In order to placate Li Pang, Jiang changed the order of the Politburo Standing Committee, so that the Chairman of the People's Congress would be number two, and premier would be #3.  In the 00s, Hu and Wen took over from Jiang and Li.  But Li was still alive at that time.  In order not to offend Li, Hu kept the same order, i.e. Congress chairman would be #2, and premier would be number 3.  When Xi took over in 2012, he finally changed it back to the way it was before Tiananmen, i.e. premier #2, and Congress chairman #3.  Probably because Li Pang died or was in his final years, so no need to give face to him anymore. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 07:51:07 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cz3F0EifLY

It's a classic gag mono.  :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 23, 2021, 08:06:24 PM
Or more recently :P https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBv6UNix5xo
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 26, 2021, 05:48:33 AM
Read this today. Quite interesting. Mr Alibaba missing in action.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/jack-ma-disappear-ant-group-ipo

QuoteJack Ma is no stranger to taking risks. In October 2020 he was China's wealthiest man, preparing to float Ant Group, a fintech company, in what was billed to be the largest IPO in the world. "Miracles happen," he told the assembled dignitaries, academics and political heavyweights who had gathered at the Bund Summit in Shanghai on October 24. At the time, Ant Group was prepared for a dual listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong. "This is the largest listing ever priced in the history of the entire human race, and the pricing happened in a place other than New York City," he said.

But the listing never happened. That night was the last time that he was seen in public — since that speech, despite being one of the most high-profile people in the global tech sector, Ma has vanished.

In the weeks before his disappearance, there were rumours circulating that regulators in China might be about to slam the brakes on Ant's listing. But if Ma's intention was to win over the audience – which included the vice president of China Wang Qishan (who had delivered the opening remarks of the summit), the head of the People's Bank of China, and all of the major players in Chinese finance – then the rest of his speech was a deft lesson in how to lose friends and alienate people. He described China's financial system as operating "with a pawnshop mentality" and that the regulatory environment was akin to trying to "use the way to manage a railway station to manage an airport".

His comments were so brash that they reportedly caught the attention of Chinese president Xi Jinping. Retribution was swift. On November 2 Ma, alongside Ant's executive chairman Eric Jing and CEO Simon Hu, was summoned and interviewed by regulators. When this interview was made public by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Shanghai Stock Exchange decided to halt Ant's IPO on November 3, just two days before it was supposed to go live.

Alibaba Group, the tech giant that Ma founded and which launched his international reputation, had a 33 per cent share in Ant Group. Its stock price dropped seven per cent on the announcement. But that was not all – over the coming weeks the laws surrounding antitrust would be redrafted in China and Alibaba would be fined. And, all the while, Ma was nowhere to be found.



By the end of the year Alibaba's shares had fallen by almost a quarter. Ma's net worth dropped by almost $10 billion over the same period, according to data from Bloomberg. Ma Huateng, the founder of rival tech firm Tencent, pushed him off the top spot to become China's richest person.

So how did everything go so wrong? After all, Ma is known for his charisma – he speaks good English, is a darling of the Western media and is not shy of being the centre of attention. He once impersonated Michael Jackson, in full costume and with accompanying dance moves, in front of 30,000 Alibaba employees at the company's annual party. He starred in his own Kung-Fu movie, which he decided to premiere at Alibaba's Singles Day event in 2018, inviting Nicole Kidman on stage to clap along.

But this was not the Ma that appeared at the Bund Summit in October 2020. Gone was his carefree charm and irreverent humour. "Mr Ma is a big personality, but on stage he seemed stilted. He read his speech instead of giving it off the cuff which is out of character," says Duncan Clark, an early consultant to Alibaba and author of The House That Jack Ma Built. "There are a lot of powerful vested interests and a lot of employees within Alibaba itself who would have made a lot of money in that IPO," he adds, "I'm sure he was under a lot of pressure."

On September 16, 2020, a little over a month before the speech, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued new guidelines stating that funding from banks and shareholders should not exceed a microfinance company's total net assets. This was potentially a huge blow to the company.

In recent years Ant has taken on an outsized role in providing credit and loans, acting as matchmaker between China's dynamic and expanding consumer class and the ossified state banking sector that has been unable to reach them. As per the filing to the Hong Kong exchange, Ant said it retained only about two per cent of these loans on its balance sheet as of June 30, with the rest funded by third parties or packaged as securities and sold off. The new guidelines potentially meant a huge shake-up to Ant's core revenue stream – and Ma's future plans.



It wasn't just Ant that had been coming under scrutiny. China's tech scene is dominated by three companies, often referred to as BAT – Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent. As of 2018 these companies alone either invested in or owned outright over half of the 124 'unicorns' in the Chinese economy (companies valued over $1bn).

The three firms have been accused of using this power to create impenetrable monopolies and prevent market competition by using their vast scale to quash smaller rivals. In recent months the government has made numerous overtures that it was ready to bring these giants to heel. It's unclear therefore whether Ma simply misread the room or whether his speech was a strategic last-ditch attempt to save his IPO. After all, he is no stranger to making bold comments and standing his ground.

When Ma created Alipay, the digital payments service that is a cornerstone of Ant's business, he was stepping into controversial territory. That this crucial piece of digital infrastructure should have been created by a private enterprise in China, and not one of the state-owned banks or the central bank itself, was a risk. He repeatedly told key executives in Alibaba that he was willing to go to jail if it came to it, aware that launching the product might see him fall foul of the authorities. He had already formalised a line of successors should his underlings also have to follow him. The gamble paid off – as of last year Alipay had 700 million users and handled a staggering $17 trillion payments – all but $100bn of them within China alone.

It was deft moves like this that had propelled Ma to global fame and, until his recent change in fortunes, to his pedestal place as China's most successful business person. His comments could be seen as just another case of Jack being Jack, attempting to ward off the coming storm from the regulators. Had they paid off, and he managed to get his IPO through, it would have been another footnote in the long saga of his success. But it wasn't to be.

The last time he was seen in public was at the Bund Summit itself, and after his meeting with regulators the trail goes cold. By December 31, 2020, media organisations in the West started reporting that Ma had gone missing. The Financial Times noted that he hadn't appeared at Africa's Business Heroes, a talent show where he was a judge. He was abruptly replaced for the show's final shot in November, and promotional videos were hastily cut to remove any reference to him.



For Ma, a regular at international functions like Davos, to suddenly disappear after crossing the government raised eyebrows. In 2019, China's most famous actress Fan Bingbing similarly vanished from view for four months. She emerged with a Weibo post pledging loyalty to the communist party and a fine of nearly £100m for tax evasion and other offences.

Could the same thing be happening to Ma? In early November, sources confirmed to the Wall Street Journal that Xi Jinping himself had been involved in halting Ant's IPO. On realising that Ma had been absent from public view for a while, the rumour mill quickly cranked itself into overdrive.

Sources close to Ma told WIRED that he is lying low, keeping himself out of the spotlight and making himself available to the authorities while the regulators decide what to do about Ant. He is said to be in Hangzhou, the city where he founded Alibaba.

In a question and answer session with reporters in late December, Pan Gongsheng, a deputy governor of China's central bank, said Ant's corporate governance was "not sound" and ordered it to "return to its origins" as a payment services provider. However, as Zichen Wang, a reporter for the state-run Xinhua News Agency pointed out, neither Ant nor Ma were accused of breaking any law or committing any crimes.

They are accused of "rule-breaking" for the way that the company leveraged the poor regulatory framework in China to create an elaborate credit and lending system in such a short space of time without having to maintain the kind of leverage that banks do. If the crux of the complaint is a technical one on how the business operates, rather than egregious wrongdoing or illegal activities, it appears that Ma is not in serious trouble.


Instead, his decision to lay low may not just be because of the government itself, but because of pressure from the many investors and employees within Alibaba who have lost millions from the stalled IPO.

Ma has admitted in the past that Alibaba's success is due in no small part to significant support from the local government in Hangzhou. He has said that his relationship with Beijing is cordial, but not close – he once told reporters that the best relationship you can have with the government is to "be in love with them, but don't marry them". On a local or provincial level that doesn't mean there is no significant government investment in Alibaba and Ant group. While these entities may not have the power of Beijing, their power should not be underestimated.

It is likely that we won't see Ma until regulators have delivered a final verdict on what will happen to Ant and Alibaba. Until then, to be seen in public would mean fielding questions to which he may not yet have the answer; and to risk saying something that might once again put him in hot water. Reached for comment, a spokesperson for Alibaba declined to comment on when Ma can be expected to be next seen in public.

It can be easy, as some commentators have done, to portray this story as a clash of egos. China's richest person tried to talk down a room of China's most powerful politicians, and spectacularly failed.

But it's far more complex than that. Ma's star has dimmed in recent years in China. He stepped down as CEO of Alibaba in 2019 and hasn't turned up to the two record-breaking Single's Day events that the company has held since then, allowing the spotlight to shine on current CEO Daniel Zhang. His focus on philanthropic enterprises may have increased his profile in places like Africa and Latin America, but has meant he is less present in the Chinese media.



He has also made comments that have caused widespread ire amongst Chinese netizens. Referring to problems with overworking, which are endemic in China, he said people were lucky to have jobs that made demands of them. "I personally think that 996 is a huge blessing," he said, referring to work days that last from 9am to 9pm, six days a week. "How do you achieve the success you want without paying extra effort and time?" The comments did little to ingratiate him with the hundreds of hundreds of millions of struggling Chinese who are not billionaires.

If it wasn't a clash of egos, then what brought the IPO crashing down in such dramatic fashion just days before it was supposed to go live? "It's regulatory failure," says Rui Ma, a tech analyst specialising on China. The fact that the IPO was called off so close to the line and in such dramatic fashion has cast aspersions on how mature markets are in the country. "The problem is that there is fine fragmentation of the regulatory bodies, which means that an internet business like Ant that spans multiple industries allows regulatory bodies to step back and say that's not really my domain." The fact that there are also a lot of powerful vested interests in Ant and Alibaba has also surely acted as a brake on any regulation.

In the shadow of the failed IPO, it appears regulators are keen for Ant to be seen as a financial services provider. Draft rules have already been drawn up which would place a $45,000 cap on microloans and that lenders will have to put up 30 per cent of the capital in any trade. This will mean a huge reallocation of assets and liquidity within Ant Group. If it is understood as a financial services company and not a tech company it will also create profound downward pressure on its future valuation if it ever does manage an IPO.

The fact that these rules did not come sooner represents a key issue that China faces as it develops into a mature economy with a more developed technology sector. The government is desperate to boost innovation and maintain steady economic growth, but it is wary of ceding too much control to private firms. In the realm of personal finance not only did Ant pose a risk in terms of leverage, but also in amassing such a huge body of consumer data that the government may find useful for its own purposes.

Chinese netizens have welcomed the government's decision to intervene. Ant has been widely criticised for predatory lending in recent years. The two per cent leverage it held on its books created moral hazard to incentivise making ever riskier loans to people unable to pay them back. One commentator for a state broadcaster called Ant a "vampire" and a "parasite". On Weibo one person commented, "Ant Group has been sucking the blood out of Chinese borrowers for a long time. The punishment is long overdue."


It appears that the antitrust case against Alibaba will only deepen. Zhang Gong, the head of the The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), reaffirmed the agency's commitment to keeping the pressure on, according to an interview published on by Xinhua. Zhan said that SAMR will move first to cure the "causes" of monopolies and regulate their "consequences".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on January 26, 2021, 06:15:58 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 23, 2021, 05:40:14 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 23, 2021, 04:17:16 PM
I have a hard time believing such rumors from highly repressive states.  So often these rumors turn out to be completely baseless.

Yeah, it could be purely memetic warfare for sure.

On the other hand, listening to "the Chinese rumour mill" put me ahead by about two months when it came to the Coronavirus, and a few days to a week (and more detail) during the Bo Xilai coup attempt when Xi succeeded. So sometimes it turns out to be true.

But yeah, I wouldn't bet any money on any of it. It's more of a hobby really - see what the rumour is and compare it against events later. Which is why I'm posting it here, so I can look back later and go "yeah that was nothing but hot air" or "oh that looks like it was accurate."

At the uni I collaborate with there's a Chinese student (a master's student, not talking about some young'un here) that's extremely well clued-in regarding Chinese rumors. He told us about Covid being potentially truly world-shattering-nasty back in January because "CCP officials are losing their shit". I wish he had been wrong.

Anyway, FWIW I emailed him and he says he doesn't give the "bad Xi health" rumors too much credence.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 26, 2021, 06:29:58 AM
I think Xi has just done a speech (including a wonderful line about how the strong can't just bully the weak <_<) remotely at Davos - obviously.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 26, 2021, 07:06:50 AM
These rumours seem to be simply wishful thinking.  Most Chinese leaders enjoy longevity.  Jiang Zemin is still alive. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 26, 2021, 08:59:08 AM
Jack Ma is back, apparently successfully re-educated.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 26, 2021, 10:32:48 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 26, 2021, 06:29:58 AM
I think Xi has just done a speech (including a wonderful line about how the strong can't just bully the weak <_<) remotely at Davos - obviously.

Good for him, I suppose.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 26, 2021, 02:11:27 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 26, 2021, 08:59:08 AM
Jack Ma is back, apparently successfully re-educated.
I have tremendous respect for highly successful people who are still open to learning new ways of doing things.  You don't see that a lot over here.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 26, 2021, 02:37:25 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 26, 2021, 02:11:27 PM
I have tremendous respect for highly successful people who are still open to learning new ways of doing things.  You don't see that a lot over here.

I don't know about that, most of the American titans of industry were quite enthusiastic to accept the gospel of the American Dear Leader, give or take a bezos or two.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 02:50:56 AM
This just in, so I haven't found an English source yet.  China's foreign ministry just announced that BN(O) passports will no longer be recognised as a valid travel or ID document. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 29, 2021, 03:04:40 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 02:50:56 AM
This just in, so I haven't found an English source yet.  China's foreign ministry just announced that BN(O) passports will no longer be recognised as a valid travel or ID document.
That sounds like a big deal, no?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 29, 2021, 04:55:22 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 02:50:56 AM
This just in, so I haven't found an English source yet.  China's foreign ministry just announced that BN(O) passports will no longer be recognised as a valid travel or ID document. 
https://hongkongfp.com/2021/01/29/breaking-china-will-no-longer-recognise-uk-issued-bno-passports-for-hongkongers/

The only solution is to stop recognising fake Chinese passports. Taiwan is the only China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on January 29, 2021, 04:56:40 AM
It Taitoo baby.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 29, 2021, 04:59:30 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 29, 2021, 03:04:40 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 02:50:56 AM
This just in, so I haven't found an English source yet.  China's foreign ministry just announced that BN(O) passports will no longer be recognised as a valid travel or ID document.
That sounds like a big deal, no?
Is it? Everyone who's eligible for a BN(O) passport (and the visa route in the UK under that passport) is also eligible for a Hong Kong passport.

So they can apply for the UK visa on the BN(O) passport and travel on their Hong Kong passport. People who are activists or otherwise of interest to the Chinese state may not be able to travel out of Hong Kong easily, but that would apply regardless of which passport they use.

But it is another example of China breaking treaty commitments and emphasises why it's essential that we open a route for BN(O) holders (and their famillies). If there was someway to easily offer a visa route to all of Hong Kong I'd back it :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 29, 2021, 05:01:39 AM
I guess its less about emigration and more about consular protection?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 06:45:36 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 29, 2021, 03:04:40 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 02:50:56 AM
This just in, so I haven't found an English source yet.  China's foreign ministry just announced that BN(O) passports will no longer be recognised as a valid travel or ID document.
That sounds like a big deal, no?

Not sure at this point.  I think the real significance is it shows China's willingness to fight back.  The real punishment is revoking the HK citizenship status for anyone who takes up the UK offer.  No coming back to HK to work, no voting in HK, no more public housing here (that's a gigantic deal here), etc. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 29, 2021, 02:42:03 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 06:45:36 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 29, 2021, 03:04:40 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 02:50:56 AM
This just in, so I haven't found an English source yet.  China's foreign ministry just announced that BN(O) passports will no longer be recognised as a valid travel or ID document.
That sounds like a big deal, no?

Not sure at this point.  I think the real significance is it shows China's willingness to fight back.  The real punishment is revoking the HK citizenship status for anyone who takes up the UK offer.  No coming back to HK to work, no voting in HK, no more public housing here (that's a gigantic deal here), etc.
on the other hand: no more chance to go to the extermination camps
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 06:02:38 PM
At this point I think the practical effects are small.  It just means that BN(O) holders, most of them are Hong Kong people, cannot use it to leave and return to Hong Kong, cannot use it to buy air tickets etc.  The thing is, most HK people have three ways for ID and for passing border control: HK ID card, HK passport, and BN(O).  So even without the BN(O), the other two methods are still valid. 

So in terms of everyday life, this doesn't make much difference. 

The real implications are two-fold.  First, this is a signal that China will fight back.  This may only be the start.  The implicit threat is that they may take away the HK citizenship of anyone who takes up the offer any time.  The lightest implication is they cannot vote.  The medium implication is they cannot become civil servants or work for any publicly funded body.  That includes most hospitals, universities, schools, cultural bodies, and social welfare NGOs.  The most severe punishment is they cannot enter HK at all, and all welfare will be revoked, the most significant of all is the right to public housing, which in the most expensive city on Earth is an enormous deal. 

The second implication is that China may influence other nations into not recognising BN(O). 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 07:53:22 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/x9CDopk.jpg)

Not sure if you can read this.  Very interesting comments.  Some very unexpected reaction.  "They [HK people] will raise the national IQ by 10%" :blink:

Also, HK people are hardworking and have a work ethic that will put Brits to shame  :lmfao:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 07:55:26 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 07:53:22 PM
Not sure if you can read this.

:D
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 07:59:30 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 07:55:26 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 07:53:22 PM
Not sure if you can read this.

:D

I was worried that the picture won't load properly.  On my computer I need to click on it before it will enlarge. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 29, 2021, 08:02:07 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 07:53:22 PM
Also, HK people are hardworking and have a work ethic that will put Brits to shame  :lmfao:

Sometimes racist stereotypes work in your favor. You are all head working smart people.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 29, 2021, 08:40:52 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 29, 2021, 08:02:07 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 07:53:22 PM
Also, HK people are hardworking and have a work ethic that will put Brits to shame  :lmfao:

Sometimes racist stereotypes work in your favor. You are all head working smart people.
Yes - but also quite common British attitudes about the British (from an FT journalist watching focus groups of leavers and remainers):
QuoteThe targets of Leavers' praise and anger surprised me. None of them attacked elitist Remainers. Many Leavers lauded European countries for their national pride or their childcare. They complained about the EU, but also wanted Britain to leave on good terms and keep co-operating with other countries rather than (in the words of a south-western Leaver) do "its own thing and yah boo sucks to everyone else".

The bogeyman for Leavers is the benefit scrounger. People repeatedly echoed an age-old tabloid theme: immigrants come to Britain to live off its sumptuous state benefits. But Leavers were equally concerned about homegrown scroungers. "The English are feral," lamented one woman in the West Midlands. "If you stubbed your toe, you got Disability Living Allowance for the rest of your life, and you don't go to work."

Leavers wondered why few young Britons had replaced immigrants as fruit pickers. Did youngsters nowadays just want to be vloggers and "influencers"? These complaints sounded more like generational incomprehension than generational conflict. Still, in Leaver rhetoric, disgust about contemporary Britain often overshadowed pride. It's a disgust that Brexiter politicians cannot admit to publicly.

And the proposals have broad support - especially compared to when the first path for citizenship for BN(O) holders was created in 1990:
(https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2020-07-01/support%20proposals1.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 09:58:37 PM
One of my biggest shocks in Canada was they didn't have different classes of citizenship.  I at first assumed that I would become a Canadian National (Overseas) or something like that.  It would not include the right to vote or some such.  No big deal.  I then found out that Canada didn't have a ladder of citizenship like the UK did.  Then I began to notice that, actually, not that many countries in the world had different classes of citizenship.  The UK was actually the exception. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 10:18:30 PM
It is a weird concept. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 29, 2021, 10:26:53 PM
Isn't green card sort of second class citizenship?  Well, technically it's not a citizenship, but once you have green card, your presence in the country is no longer tenuous.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on January 30, 2021, 02:18:32 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 10:18:30 PM
It is a weird concept.

I understand and accept the rationale.  Hong Kong was a colony, not "UK proper". 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on January 30, 2021, 04:02:22 AM
Our former colonies have an expedited path to citizenship but no "middle" status like BN(O).

Then again, brits have always been confusing with all their overseas territories, dependencies, and shit.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 04:16:11 AM
I guess in the US Puerto Rico has a sort of in between status.  Everyone born their has US citizenship, but residents of the island have no federal voting rights.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on January 30, 2021, 06:18:51 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 29, 2021, 09:58:37 PM
One of my biggest shocks in Canada was they didn't have different classes of citizenship.  I at first assumed that I would become a Canadian National (Overseas) or something like that.  It would not include the right to vote or some such.  No big deal.  I then found out that Canada didn't have a ladder of citizenship like the UK did.  Then I began to notice that, actually, not that many countries in the world had different classes of citizenship.  The UK was actually the exception.

Brazilians may have as well a second class citizenship in Portugal, branded as as Equality Statute under the treaty of Porto Seguro. The difference being that the Brazilian with the special Portuguese ID cannot use it to travel freely in the EU/Schengen zone. Being elected for office is included though, except maybe top political positions; not sure about it.
Works reciprocally for the Portuguese in Brazil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equality_Statute_between_Brazil_and_Portugal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equality_Statute_between_Brazil_and_Portugal)

PS: nothing for Macau citizens, sorry Mono. It's all (Portuguese citizens) or nothing.  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 30, 2021, 11:33:07 AM
Don't Goans have some special status?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 30, 2021, 11:48:27 AM
Quote from: celedhring on January 30, 2021, 04:02:22 AM
Our former colonies have an expedited path to citizenship but no "middle" status like BN(O).

Then again, brits have always been confusing with all their overseas territories, dependencies, and shit.
Yeah it's a legacy of empire but actually quite a late development - things used to be simple. We didn't have codified citizenship laws until the 20th century - it was just "his/her Majesty's subjects" or not. I think initially that was the approach the to citizenship: if you were a subject then you were a citizen. So during the First World War newspapers would report the number of "British" casualties and then break it down by nationality but they counted Canadian, South African, Indian, Irish casualties as "British" (and legally, they were).

That all basically changes after the second world war when those Brits from other bits of the empire start to exercise their right to move and live in the UK which prompts various waves of racist panic. So there's some restrictions in 1948, more are imposed in the 60s and then in the 80s these various categories of citizenship are are created - and there's now a load of legacy citizenships like BN(O). I think the only one that people still get are for British Overseas Territories like the Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Bermuda etc.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on January 30, 2021, 01:07:20 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 30, 2021, 11:33:07 AM
Don't Goans have some special status?

More like an expedited path to citizenship, as the other lusophone countries.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 30, 2021, 01:13:30 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 04:16:11 AM
I guess in the US Puerto Rico has a sort of in between status.  Everyone born their has US citizenship, but residents of the island have no federal voting rights.

An even better example of this is American Samoans who are American Nationals but not American Citizens...whatever that means.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on January 30, 2021, 03:54:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 30, 2021, 11:48:27 AM
Quote from: celedhring on January 30, 2021, 04:02:22 AM
Our former colonies have an expedited path to citizenship but no "middle" status like BN(O).

Then again, brits have always been confusing with all their overseas territories, dependencies, and shit.
Yeah it's a legacy of empire but actually quite a late development - things used to be simple. We didn't have codified citizenship laws until the 20th century - it was just "his/her Majesty's subjects" or not. I think initially that was the approach the to citizenship: if you were a subject then you were a citizen. So during the First World War newspapers would report the number of "British" casualties and then break it down by nationality but they counted Canadian, South African, Indian, Irish casualties as "British" (and legally, they were).

That all basically changes after the second world war when those Brits from other bits of the empire start to exercise their right to move and live in the UK which prompts various waves of racist panic. So there's some restrictions in 1948, more are imposed in the 60s and then in the 80s these various categories of citizenship are are created - and there's now a load of legacy citizenships like BN(O). I think the only one that people still get are for British Overseas Territories like the Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Bermuda etc.

BN(O) is Hong Kong Unique and dates to the mid-Eighties, after the handover agreement was signed. Also, almost all British Overseas Territories citizens now also hold British citizenship (once Hong Kong was gone there was no need for it outside of Cyprus.)

While we are happy now to potentially allow 3 million Hong Kong citizens to emigrate here - we were not in the Eighties and Nineties (something which annoyed me then.) I seem to remember this being commented on when we extended full citizenship to most of the Overseas Territories under Blair.

One must also remember that the main "tidying up", that being the 1971 Act, was partly needed because we were joining the EEC and our somewhat lax definitions of citizenship were inadequate for "the Club".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on January 30, 2021, 05:28:47 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on January 30, 2021, 01:07:20 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 30, 2021, 11:33:07 AM
Don't Goans have some special status?

More like an expedited path to citizenship, as the other lusophone countries.

I learned a new word today!

It's going to take some work to put it properly into a sentence I might speak, but it's a great word.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 11, 2021, 05:35:23 PM
Similar to the Huawei patents. There needs to be a real responsibility for companies to manage their supply chain and not get involved with either forced labour or tech companies who've been doing this type of work:
QuoteAmazon questioned over contract with company that offered 'real-time Uighur warnings'
By Johana BhuiyanStaff Writer
Feb. 10, 2021 5:54 PM PT

Amazon.com Inc. faces questions from senators over a reported contract with Dahua, a Chinese security camera company that indicated it has the ability to alert police when its facial recognition software identifies members of the Uighur ethnic group.

Sens. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) sent the letter to Amazon Chief Executive Jeff Bezos one day after the Los Angeles Times reported on Dahua product support documents that suggest the company's technology can sort passersby by race, issue "real-time warnings for non-local Uighurs," and track "Uighurs with hidden terrorist inclinations."


Dahua is among the Chinese companies included on the Commerce Department's entity list for its ties to "human rights violations and abuses in the implementation of China's campaign of repression" against Uighurs, a Turkic ethnic group. The U.S. doesn't restrict American companies such as Amazon from buying from businesses on the entity list, though it urges caution. Companies on the entity list are barred from purchasing American products.

Menendez and Rubio asked whether Amazon knew Dahua was on the entity list when it was considering entering into a contract with the company and whether that came up in its deliberations. According to a Reuters report, Dahua sold 1,500 thermal imaging cameras to Amazon in a deal estimated to be worth close to $10 million.

"If these allegations against Dahua are true, it would mean that Amazon willfully ignored guidance from the United States government and purchased equipment from an entity-listed company that is complicit in China's atrocities against" the Uighurs, read the joint letter addressed to Bezos. "While buying equipment from Dahua Technology is not illegal, it does raise several questions for you, as the chief executive of Amazon."

On Wednesday, Dahua said in a statement that the documents referenced by The Times and in a separate report by the video surveillance news outlet IPVM were "historical internal software design documents."

"Dahua will not provide the features or applications in the software products in the future," the statement said. "Dahua will conduct a rigorous internal review and strengthen the design review process and management of the company's Research and Development functions."

Dahua said it "does not provide products and services for ethnicity detection" in the "regional markets reported by the media."


The Times report mentioned an Australian business that will cut ties with Dahua after noticing a race-identifying feature in its software, and an American contract holder unaware of the company's designation on the entity list.

Dahua did not address whether these features are functional in other markets.

The company also said total sales in "relevant regional markets ... have been declining rapidly on a yearly basis."

Amazon did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

"These reports are extremely disturbing and show that the comprehensive surveillance system that Chinese authorities have deployed against the [Uighurs] is just as bad as we had feared, if not worse," the senators wrote in the letter.

Johana Bhuiyan is a business reporter at the Los Angeles Times covering the technology industry with a focus on accountability.

Edit: For example apparently Xinjiang is a huge manufacturer of solar panels. It feels like it'd be worth looking for (and if necessary) funding alternatives because it's  quite possibly going to be an issue untangling whether or not they were made using forced labour.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on February 28, 2021, 10:36:46 PM
QuoteBoris Johnson says he is 'fervently Sinophile,' seeks to improve China-UK economic ties

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently declared that he is "fervently Sinophile" during a Downing Street round table with Chinese businesses to mark the Chinese Lunar New Year.

Johnson told those who gathered at the February 12 event that he wants to resume formal trade discussions between China and the UK by reactivating the Economic and Financial Dialogue and the China-UK Joint Trade and Economic Commission, a report published in the Guardian said. However, no date has been set for the resumption of either forum.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-22/UK-PM-Boris-Johnson-says-he-is-fervently-Sinophile--Y5Kvctu9Ik/index.html

:bowler:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on March 08, 2021, 03:16:51 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-economy/hong-kong-dropped-from-economic-freedom-index-as-policies-controlled-from-beijing-idUSKBN2AW0OI

QuoteHong Kong dropped from Economic Freedom Index as policies 'controlled from Beijing'

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong has been excluded from the Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom because its economic policies are controlled from Beijing, the Washington-based think tank said, removing Hong Kong from a list it topped for 25 years up to 2019.

The title of the world's freest economy for 2021 was retained by Singapore for the second year, the Heritage Foundation said, with Hong Kong's investment freedom hurt by political and social unrest dating back to 2019.

In the 2021 index published on Thursday, the foundation said Hong Kong and Macau, both special administrative regions of China, were no longer included because even though citizens enjoy more economic freedom than the average resident of China, "developments in recent years have demonstrated unambiguously that those policies are ultimately controlled from Beijing".

Developments in Hong Kong or Macau that are relevant to economic freedom would be considered in the context of China's evaluation in the index, it added. China slipped to 107 from 103, among the list of 178 countries.

A spokesman for the Hong Kong government's financial secretary expressed "deep disappointment" at the decision.

"The decision is neither warranted nor justified. It does not do justice to (Hong Kong)," the spokesman said, adding that the claim that the city's economic policies are controlled by Beijing is "ill-conceived and simply not true".

He added that the assessment was "politically biased" and that Hong Kong's core economic competitiveness, including free flow of capital, remains under the "one country, two systems" formula of governance put in place in 1997 when the city reverted from British to Chinese rule.

The U.S. suspended Hong Kong's preferential tariff rates for exports to the country and imposed sanctions on Hong Kong and Beijing officials last year in response to China's imposition of a national security law on the former British colony, saying it undermined the city's high autonomy.

Critics of the law say it is aimed at crushing dissent, while authorities in Beijing and Hong Kong say it was necessary to restore stability after anti-government and anti-China unrest.

Earlier this week, London-based non-governmental organisation Hong Kong Watch said in a report that "red capital" - money originating from mainland China - had fundamentally shaped Hong Kong's politics, media and the city's status as a business hub.

In 2019, 82% of IPOs in Hong Kong were by mainland companies, while in October 2020, mainland equities comprised 57.3% of the Hang Seng Index by weighting, the group said.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 08, 2021, 03:35:42 AM
Wasn't it just a page or two back Mono saying this would never happen?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 08, 2021, 08:11:08 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 08, 2021, 03:35:42 AM
Wasn't it just a page or two back Mono saying this would never happen?

What are you referring to?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 08, 2021, 08:16:50 PM
Quote from: Syt on March 08, 2021, 03:16:51 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-economy/hong-kong-dropped-from-economic-freedom-index-as-policies-controlled-from-beijing-idUSKBN2AW0OI

QuoteHong Kong dropped from Economic Freedom Index as policies 'controlled from Beijing'

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong has been excluded from the Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom because its economic policies are controlled from Beijing, the Washington-based think tank said, removing Hong Kong from a list it topped for 25 years up to 2019.

The title of the world's freest economy for 2021 was retained by Singapore for the second year, the Heritage Foundation said, with Hong Kong's investment freedom hurt by political and social unrest dating back to 2019.

In the 2021 index published on Thursday, the foundation said Hong Kong and Macau, both special administrative regions of China, were no longer included because even though citizens enjoy more economic freedom than the average resident of China, "developments in recent years have demonstrated unambiguously that those policies are ultimately controlled from Beijing".

Developments in Hong Kong or Macau that are relevant to economic freedom would be considered in the context of China's evaluation in the index, it added. China slipped to 107 from 103, among the list of 178 countries.

A spokesman for the Hong Kong government's financial secretary expressed "deep disappointment" at the decision.

"The decision is neither warranted nor justified. It does not do justice to (Hong Kong)," the spokesman said, adding that the claim that the city's economic policies are controlled by Beijing is "ill-conceived and simply not true".

He added that the assessment was "politically biased" and that Hong Kong's core economic competitiveness, including free flow of capital, remains under the "one country, two systems" formula of governance put in place in 1997 when the city reverted from British to Chinese rule.

The U.S. suspended Hong Kong's preferential tariff rates for exports to the country and imposed sanctions on Hong Kong and Beijing officials last year in response to China's imposition of a national security law on the former British colony, saying it undermined the city's high autonomy.

Critics of the law say it is aimed at crushing dissent, while authorities in Beijing and Hong Kong say it was necessary to restore stability after anti-government and anti-China unrest.

Earlier this week, London-based non-governmental organisation Hong Kong Watch said in a report that "red capital" - money originating from mainland China - had fundamentally shaped Hong Kong's politics, media and the city's status as a business hub.

In 2019, 82% of IPOs in Hong Kong were by mainland companies, while in October 2020, mainland equities comprised 57.3% of the Hang Seng Index by weighting, the group said.

Big deal.  A small dent in our PR efforts.  This is Hong Kong.  For as long as I remember, there is a crisis every few years.  The Sino-British talks in the early 80s.  Tiananmen in 1989.  The huge brain drain in the early 90s (I was one of them).  The handover and Asian financial crisis in 1997.  SARS and the anti-Article 23 protests in 2003.  The financial crisis of 2007/08.  The anti-patriot education protests of 2012.  The umbrella riots in 2014.  The Mongkok riot in 2016.  The black riots of 2019/20.  Hong Kong's death is predicted every time, and we are still here.

The real question is who will benefit from the prosperity.  The Cantonese-speaking locals who are born here?  Or the rich, well-connected, Mandarin speaking, Ivy-league educated second or third generation red princes from the Mainland?  I think the question has been settled with the victory of the government over the rioters :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on March 08, 2021, 09:11:24 PM
Who was projecting immediate collapse of Hong Kong? Nobody. We have just been warning about thr long term consequences.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on March 08, 2021, 09:12:47 PM
The victory of China over Hong Kong is why HK is being dropped from the index. :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 08, 2021, 09:25:30 PM
I see it as a victory of markets over politics. 

Say the real estate tycoons have a flat to sell.  There are two buyers.  A Mainland red prince with US$10 million in cash in a suitcase.  A Hong Kong 20-something middle class making US$2k a month. The red prince will out bid the local every time, and the local will have no choice but to live in a 50 square feet subdivided flat.  The local wants a democratically elected government who will ban the red prince from the real estate market, so that the tycoon will have to sell to the local at a reduced profit.  That plan has now failed. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 08, 2021, 10:02:47 PM
I see it as a victory of corrupt crony politics over markets.

Say the real estate tycoons have a flat to sell.  There are two buyers.  A Mainland red prince and a local without clout in Beijing.  It doesn't matter what the red prince bids because the tycoons now believe that the courts can't be counted on to rule fairly and will favor the side with more pull in Beijing and so they will give the flat to the red prince to be safe. The local wants a democratically elected government that will safeguard the rule of law in Hong Kong and stand up for the concept of One Country, Two Systems. That plan has now failed because Xi is building a corrupt neo-Maoist regime and there is no more room for Dengist flirtations with pluralism and experimentation. Hong Kong must be reduced to a province like any other.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 08, 2021, 10:09:06 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 08, 2021, 10:02:47 PM
I see it as a victory of corrupt crony politics over markets.

Say the real estate tycoons have a flat to sell.  There are two buyers.  A Mainland red prince and a local without clout in Beijing.  It doesn't matter what the red prince bids because the tycoons now believe that the courts can't be counted on to rule fairly and will favor the side with more pull in Beijing and so they will give the flat to the red prince to be safe. The local wants a democratically elected government that will safeguard the rule of law in Hong Kong and stand up for the concept of One Country, Two Systems. That plan has now failed because Xi is building a corrupt neo-Maoist regime and there is no more room for Dengist flirtations with pluralism and experimentation. Hong Kong must be reduced to a province like any other.

If that's really what's happening, HK real estate should be cheap.  It isn't.  HK flats are *the* most expensive in the world.  The red princes are bidding and paying. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 08, 2021, 11:04:10 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 08, 2021, 10:09:06 PM
If that's really what's happening, HK real estate should be cheap.  It isn't.  HK flats are *the* most expensive in the world.  The red princes are bidding and paying.

That doesn't follow. Corrupt crony politics are more than capable of sustaining bubbles.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 08, 2021, 11:08:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 08, 2021, 11:04:10 PM
That doesn't follow. Corrupt crony politics are more than capable of sustaining bubbles.

It does follow Joan's description of the market being determined by influence on the buy side.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 08, 2021, 11:18:44 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 08, 2021, 11:04:10 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 08, 2021, 10:09:06 PM
If that's really what's happening, HK real estate should be cheap.  It isn't.  HK flats are *the* most expensive in the world.  The red princes are bidding and paying.

That doesn't follow. Corrupt crony politics are more than capable of sustaining bubbles.

If what Minsky describes is happening, the red princes don't have to bid.  The tycoons will just give the flats to them, or sell the flats at below market prices to earn their favour.  That's not what's happening.  The tycoons are trying to maximise profits by selling to the highest bidder.  The red princes still have to buy the flats at astronomical prices.  In other words, the market dictates prices, not political clout. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 08, 2021, 11:33:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 08, 2021, 11:08:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 08, 2021, 11:04:10 PM
That doesn't follow. Corrupt crony politics are more than capable of sustaining bubbles.

It does follow Joan's description of the market being determined by influence on the buy side.

Correction accepted.

We'll see how long the state of affairs last.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 09, 2021, 02:03:10 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 08, 2021, 11:08:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 08, 2021, 11:04:10 PM
That doesn't follow. Corrupt crony politics are more than capable of sustaining bubbles.

It does follow Joan's description of the market being determined by influence on the buy side.

It doesn't have to result in prices declining if the sellers are smart and curry influence by supporting the right political line and giving the mainland "princes" first access to listings, desirable club memberships etc.  The princes as a class don't want to see prices decline because that is where they are putting a chunk of their wealth. Corruption is a dynamic game and there are lots of ways to play if you have money and status but are willing to lose a scruple or two.  But the regular folk almost always get the short end.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2021, 02:06:01 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 09, 2021, 02:03:10 AM
It doesn't have to result in prices declining if the sellers are smart and curry influence by supporting the right political line and giving the mainland "princes" first access to listings, desirable club memberships etc.  The princes as a class don't want to see prices decline because that is where they are putting a chunk of their wealth. Corruption is a dynamic game and there are lots of ways to play if you have money and status but are willing to lose a scruple or two.  But the regular folk almost always get the short end.

This is a different narrative than you one in which you said it doesn't matter what the red prince bids.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 09, 2021, 02:18:37 AM
I can add more nuance in response to a critique.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 09, 2021, 02:23:43 AM
The larger point is that the subversion of rule of law cannot credibly be characterized as a victory of markets over "politics".  I'm not a big fan of Heritage overall, but they have recognized the basic truth that the foundation of economic freedom is not low capital gains taxes or even sliced up red tape, but the security that a reliable system of impartial justice provides to investors and contracting parties.  Hong Kong had it, now it doesn't, and recovering virtue once lost is even more challenging than maintaining it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on March 09, 2021, 02:51:38 AM
Is there any evidence that the judicial arbitration of contracts has changed in recent months?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on March 12, 2021, 04:19:20 PM
https://www.state.gov/g7-statement-on-hong-kong-electoral-changes/

QuoteG7 Statement on Hong Kong Electoral Changes

The text of the following statement was released by the G7 foreign ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America and the High Representative of the European Union.

Begin Text:

We, the G7 Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America and the High Representative of the European Union, are united in expressing our grave concerns at the Chinese authorities' decision fundamentally to erode democratic elements of the electoral system in Hong Kong. Such a decision strongly indicates that the authorities in mainland China are determined to eliminate dissenting voices and opinions in Hong Kong.

The package of changes approved by the National People's Congress, combined with mass arrests of pro-democracy activists and politicians, undermines Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy under the "One Country, Two Systems" principle. The package will also stifle political pluralism, contrary to the aim of moving towards universal suffrage as set out in the Basic Law.  Furthermore, the changes will reduce freedom of speech, which is a right guaranteed in the Sino-British Joint Declaration.

The people of Hong Kong should be trusted to cast their votes in the best interests of Hong Kong.  Discussion of differing views, not silencing of them, is the way to secure the stability and prosperity of Hong Kong.

We call on China to act in accordance with the Sino-British Joint Declaration and its other legal obligations and respect fundamental rights and freedoms in Hong Kong, as provided for in the Basic Law. We also call on China and the Hong Kong authorities to restore confidence in Hong Kong's political institutions and end the unwarranted oppression of those who promote democratic values and the defense of rights and freedoms.

End text.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on March 12, 2021, 04:46:17 PM
Lots of calling, little to no action.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2021, 04:56:57 PM
Thank you Captain Obvious.

(G7 not Hillary)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on March 12, 2021, 05:26:04 PM
Hah thanks for the clarification.

While the note was weak I do still think HK is on a slow decline as a financial hub in the area.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 12, 2021, 05:28:28 PM
Quote from: HVC on March 12, 2021, 05:26:04 PM
Hah thanks for the clarification.

While the note was weak I do still think HK is on a slow decline as a financial hub in the area.

I am just happy that the US actually joined in.  Something that would have been unremarkable 5 years ago.  But what a relief to see them acting in a coordinated way with their allies again.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 22, 2021, 06:22:34 AM
I feel bad constantly stealing the FT's content so I'll just link:
https://www.ft.com/content/47c9b28b-8247-4984-9398-dc78ff62b424
UK spy agencies push for curbs on Chinese 'smart cities' technology

This is the weird scenario when intelligence agencies fears and moral concerns align. From the story: "freedom of information requests obtained by Reuters revealed that at least half of London's boroughs have bought and deployed surveillance systems made by Chinese suppliers, including Hikvision [linked to] Beijing's repression of Uyghur Muslims in China."

The UK has restrictive data protection laws and the regulator (and courts) have taken a pretty dim view of the advanced surveillance systems such as facial recognition CCTV etc. But it keeps being pushed by local councils and, inevitably, Chinese companies are some of the best in that area. We have a lot of CCTV and it feels like for state operators there should be restrictions on using Chinese suppliers for national security reasons, and more widely I think we need some sort of legislation like the Modern Slavery Act (which probably needs an update to reflect the situation in Xinjiang) that requires companies to ensure their supply chain doesn't include companies who are either benefiting from forced labour or participating in repression in that province.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on March 25, 2021, 03:57:45 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/25/nike-and-hm-face-backlash-in-china-over-xinjiang-statements

QuoteNike and H&M face backlash in China over Xinjiang statements

Anger with Nike has erupted on Chinese social media after the company issued a statement saying it was "concerned about reports of forced labour" in China's Xinjiang province, and that it would not source textiles from the region.

The backlash over the Nike statement was among the highest trending topics on China's Twitter-like social media Weibo on Thursday.

The popular Chinese actor Wang Yibo, 23, terminated his contract as a representative for Nike in response to the statement, his agency said on Weibo on Thursday.

Wang, who has found international recognition through the period drama The Untamed, and who has 38 million followers on Weibo, said he opposed "any act to smear China", according to China Global Television Network (CGTN) on Twitter.

Another Chinese actor, Tan Songyun, followed by 23 million on Weibo, also announced she was terminating her contract with Nike.

It was unclear when Nike had put out the statement, which did not have a date on it. Nike did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

"We are concerned about reports of forced labor in, and connected to, the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR)," the statement said.

"Nike does not source products from the XUAR and we have confirmed with our contract suppliers that they are not using textiles or spun yarn from the region."

The move comes amid anger in China at the Swedish clothing giant H&M's decision to no longer source cotton from Xinjiang .

The fashion retailer's products vanished from Chinese tech titan Alibaba's e-commerce platform Taobao on Wednesday, while two popular actors cut ties with H&M and state media published commentaries criticising the company.

Last year H&M said it would not source cotton from Xinjiang and was ending its relationship with a Chinese yarn producer over "forced labour" accusations involving minorities in the region.

The company's statement came after a report by thinktank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute pointed to H&M as a beneficiary of a forced labour transfer programme.

H&M China in a statement on Wednesday night said it "does not represent any political position" and remains committed to long-term investment in China.

The Communist Youth League and China Central Television [CCTV] criticised H&M for "spreading rumours", leading to boycotts of cotton-sourced products.

Besides H&M and Nike, state-run Beijing Youth Daily name-checked Adidas, New Balance, and Burberry for being members of the Better Cotton Initiative which suspended licensing of cotton sourced from Xinjiang early in 2020 due to lack of access and due diligence on whether supply chains there were using forced labour.

Around a dozen Japanese companies, including clothing brands Uniqlo and MUJI, are also believed to have suspended transactions related to Xinjiang cotton.

The row follows the introduction of sanctions against Chinese officials announced on Monday by the European Union, United States, Britain and Canada over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

China retaliated with sanctions on European lawmakers and institutions.

Human rights groups have described mass human rights abuses in Xinjiang, including the incarceration of more than a million people in internment and re-education camps, forced labour, mass sterilisation of women, and restrictions on religion, culture and language, as cultural genocide.

China has denied these claims and says it is providing vocational training, and that its measures are needed to fight extremism.

Hu Xijin, outspoken editor-in-chief of the state-run Global Times, urged western companies on Wednesday to be "highly cautious" and not to "suppress China's Xinjiang" in a social media post.

To do so would "undoubtedly arouse the anger of the Chinese public," he added. He did not single out any companies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on March 31, 2021, 10:06:01 AM
https://www.dw.com/en/china-gets-german-childrens-book-about-covid-withdrawn/a-56874633

QuoteChina gets German children's book about COVID withdrawn

German publisher Carlsen-Verlag has, at the urging of the Chinese embassy, taken a children's book off the market, because it implies a direct link between COVID-19 and China.

Whenever China is blamed for starting the COVID-19 pandemic, its government reacts. By describing it as the "Chinese virus," former US President Trump drew Beijing's ire for making the country responsible for the pandemic situation. World Health Organization (WHO) experts visiting China were also treated with more than just suspicion when they arrived at Wuhan province to investigate the origins of the virus.

Chinese artist Ai Weiwei, who routinely uses his creativity to criticize the Chinese government, also got a taste of Beijing's disapproval when he aired his film Coronation, which documents the heavy-handed measures taken by Chinese authorities during the lockdown in Wuhan.

"The People's Republic of China is trying to control how we think and talk about China. They feel there should only be good stories about China," says Ralph Weber, associate professor for European Global Studies at the University of Basel and an expert of Chinese relations.

German children's book links virus to China

And that attitude now has an impact on a children's book published in Germany, which stated, "the virus came from China and has spread from there all over the world." Beijing wasn't exactly pleased.

Written by author Constanze Steindamm and illustrator Dorothea Tust, the book, whose German title translates as "A Corona Rainbow for Anna and Moritz," was published by the Carlsen-Verlag publishing house in Hamburg. It aims to provide "the most important tips for daycare centers and elementary schools on how to behave properly during coronavirus pandemic," the publishers said, adding that it was an "affectionate nonfiction story."

Carlsen publishing house explained that the book was about "explaining the far-reaching changes to everyday life during the pandemic as well as the hygiene precautions and behavioral measures that children and adults alike can take to protect themselves from infection."

"It was important to the publishers to offer such a book as quickly as possible in the spring of 2020 to convey these aspects in a way that is suitable for children and based on facts, providing tips for behavior in everyday life."

The Chinese government's reaction

The Chinese consulate in Hamburg promptly threatened the Carlsen publishing house with filing criminal charges, demanding the recall of the book as well as a public apology.

Carlsen publishing house complied with the demand, telling DW that it had "stopped delivery of the book." A new edition with a different wording regarding the origins of the virus is already in the making
.

The publishing house said that the original version had been in line with what was being reported at the time of the release of the first edition, adding that "today we would no longer use this wording, as its meaning has proven to be far more open to interpretation than we had intended."

But why does a powerful nation like China choose to intervene at all with the wording in a children's book, of all things — especially taking into consideration that the book was launched with a relatively small initial print run of just a few thousand copies? And how can it be that a major German children's book publisher agrees to bow to pressure from Beijing, nearly 7,500 kilometers (4,600 miles) away?

The Carlsen-Verlag publishing house is keeping its lips rather sealed when approached for commentary. The same is true for the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine in Hamburg, which had advised the publishing house on the children's book.

China's growing influence

Chinese journalist Shi Ming highlights how politically sensitive the issue truly is: "In the beginning, the Chinese propaganda itself said that the disease had first started in China. It even referred to it as 'Wuhan pneumonia.' But now, it wants to erase the memory of the virus' origins with a worldwide political correctness campaign."

Shi also told DW that Beijing fears its image in the world could suffer, and that immeasurable compensation claims could ensue if the virus was positively linked to China. To combat this threat, China is leaving no stone unturned when it comes to the global narrative on COVID-19.

Ralph Weber, who lived in China himself for some time, says that Beijing rather wants to present a narrative that highlights, for example, "how China fought the coronavirus pandemic with great efficiency."

Working on China's image, at home and abroad

But China's strategy goes beyond showcasing hospitals built in a week or lockdowns implemented with military precision: "It also involves telling people in China that things are not going so well in Europe; that the European model needs an overhaul, that it has failed, that democracy as practiced in Europe doesn't work," Weber told DW.

This is exactly how the People's Republic casts itself in a good light — at least at home — making its own brand of authoritarianism look socially acceptable to its own people, says Weber.

The case of the Carlsen publishing house did not surprise the political expert at all; Weber says it is rather part of a pattern: "For a long time now, China has been influencing cultural life in Europe, and perhaps we haven't noticed that so far."

"A lot is being done to ensure that we talk much less today about Tibet, Tiananmen or Taiwan, for example," says Ralph Weber, listing how Chinese authorities from consulates to embassies are trying to create a positive image for example by sending dance groups around the globe or by offering free events at China's worldwide Confucius Institutes.

As a major publisher, could Carlsen have tried to defend itself against Chinese influence? Perhaps, says Weber, "but the question is rather, what would have been the consequences..."

Indeed, some insiders suspect that regime-loyal members of the Chinese community could have made life difficult for the publisher through letters to the editor or bad reviews on book sales portals. This is where the intervention of democratic states is called for, according to the Swiss political scientist: "Nobody will be strong enough on their own."

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 31, 2021, 12:25:01 PM
Quote
As a major publisher, could Carlsen have tried to defend itself against Chinese influence? Perhaps, says Weber, "but the question is rather, what would have been the consequences..."


Germans especially should know better than anyone else what the consequences are of yielding to hitlerian scum.
At least they have the honor of not being the only pnes, as everyone in the west seems to be appeasing the CCP
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on March 31, 2021, 12:35:31 PM
I kind of thought that one of the basic jobs of the government is to protect their citizens from other governments, at least while their citizens are on their territory.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 31, 2021, 12:40:20 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 31, 2021, 12:35:31 PM
I kind of thought that one of the basic jobs of the government is to protect their citizens from other governments, at least while their citizens are on their territory.

It is becoming a much more pressing issue for Canada.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 31, 2021, 12:49:05 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 31, 2021, 12:35:31 PM
I kind of thought that one of the basic jobs of the government is to protect their citizens from other governments, at least while their citizens are on their territory.
There's a real campaign at the minute by China - they've sanctioned several think-tanks and academics and publishers as well as parliamentarians (definitely in the UK and I think also at the European Parliament). The issue there seems to have been Xinjiang or Hong Kong rather than covid.

But it's quite alarming because it's clearly aimed at chilling discussion of those issues, on the other hand I've seen a fair amount of solidarity from others and ultimately it's relatively easy to go on with your life not transferring your assets to China, while if you're a Chinese civil servant not being able to transfer assets to the US, say, is a bit more likely to be an issue.

Also just thinking in terms of Garbon's post it feels like companies may have to start choosing - not because of governmet action (though I think the consumer boycotts in China do seem to have had some state support for the campaign) but because of consumers. Western consumers (and some lawmakers) increasingly have an issue shopping for goods that are partly supplied out of Xinjiang, so there's campaigns like the clean cotton campaign. On the other hand Chinese consumers increasingly seem to have an issue shopping with companies that decide to take a corporate stance on Xinjiang. I'm not sure how long companies will be able to straddle those two markets with any ease - and I think we're only at the start of finding out.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on March 31, 2021, 12:58:24 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 31, 2021, 12:49:05 PM
On the other hand Chinese consumers increasingly seem to have an issue shopping with companies that decide to take a corporate stance on Xinjiang. I'm not sure how long companies will be able to straddle those two markets with any ease - and I think we're only at the start of finding out.

Doing business in China is not a winning proposition for any westers (non-chinese) company it seems. You only end up strenghtening your inevitable competition given that you need to basically sign everything exect your underwear over to the chinese. Better stay away from that country by default imho. Even if it is a big market.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 01, 2021, 05:30:11 AM
BBC China correspondent in Beijing has relocated to Taipei following lots of pressure/difficulties. His wife is the RTE correspondent in China who has also been experiencing lots of pressure. Both have reported on Xinjiang, Hong Kong and covid - and have said that basically their safety and safety of their family ended up taking priority.

There are now I think very few western journalists still in China - certainly from English language media. A lot of US journalists were expelled, the Australian networks have pullled out for safety reasons, I think Canadian and UK media companies have now also really reduced their presence.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 01, 2021, 05:38:29 AM
Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 01, 2021, 06:09:16 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 31, 2021, 12:49:05 PM
Also just thinking in terms of Garbon's post it feels like companies may have to start choosing - not because of governmet action (though I think the consumer boycotts in China do seem to have had some state support for the campaign) but because of consumers. Western consumers (and some lawmakers) increasingly have an issue shopping for goods that are partly supplied out of Xinjiang, so there's campaigns like the clean cotton campaign. On the other hand Chinese consumers increasingly seem to have an issue shopping with companies that decide to take a corporate stance on Xinjiang. I'm not sure how long companies will be able to straddle those two markets with any ease - and I think we're only at the start of finding out.

Yeah, hopefully there will be enough pressure from Western consumers to divest from China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 12:35:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 01, 2021, 05:30:11 AM
BBC China correspondent in Beijing has relocated to Taipei following lots of pressure/difficulties. His wife is the RTE correspondent in China who has also been experiencing lots of pressure. Both have reported on Xinjiang, Hong Kong and covid - and have said that basically their safety and safety of their family ended up taking priority.

There are now I think very few western journalists still in China - certainly from English language media. A lot of US journalists were expelled, the Australian networks have pullled out for safety reasons, I think Canadian and UK media companies have now also really reduced their presence.

Yeah, it's a pretty shitty trajectory China is on right now, throwing its weight around and trying to bully everyone, escalating nationalism and domestic repression and so on.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 01, 2021, 12:40:55 PM
Yeah - weirdest thing is I think they were on course to kind of split everyone else so you'd have the US, Canada, UK and Australia on one track and being slightly more aggressive while decoupling the EU. It feels like they may have slightly blown that (I mean maybe not permanently) with their actions against EU think tanks, academics, journalists and politicians. The European Parliament seem a lot more sceptical of the CAI and a number of member states are also seeming a lot more concerned.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on April 01, 2021, 12:44:15 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 12:35:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 01, 2021, 05:30:11 AM
BBC China correspondent in Beijing has relocated to Taipei following lots of pressure/difficulties. His wife is the RTE correspondent in China who has also been experiencing lots of pressure. Both have reported on Xinjiang, Hong Kong and covid - and have said that basically their safety and safety of their family ended up taking priority.

There are now I think very few western journalists still in China - certainly from English language media. A lot of US journalists were expelled, the Australian networks have pullled out for safety reasons, I think Canadian and UK media companies have now also really reduced their presence.

Yeah, it's a pretty shitty trajectory China is on right now, throwing its weight around and trying to bully everyone, escalating nationalism and domestic repression and so on.

Yeah - for the longest time China very deliberately had a policy to not pick any foreign fights, but now they seem to be intent on fighting all countries (diplomatically speaking).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 12:47:09 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 01, 2021, 12:40:55 PM
Yeah - weirdest thing is I think they were on course to kind of split everyone else so you'd have the US, Canada, UK and Australia on one track and being slightly more aggressive while decoupling the EU. It feels like they may have slightly blown that (I mean maybe not permanently) with their actions against EU think tanks, academics, journalists and politicians. The European Parliament seem a lot more sceptical of the CAI and a number of member states are also seeming a lot more concerned.

On the current trajectory, I don't think China is going to be able to split off the EU. They're going to be obnoxious bullies and wear out European patience. That seems to be the only mode of international engagement they have right now.

I mean... Canada? We had zero interest in picking a fight with China and yet here we are.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 01, 2021, 08:13:04 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 01, 2021, 05:38:29 AM
Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p

People will either obey or move to another place, not rise up  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 03, 2021, 02:24:08 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 01, 2021, 08:13:04 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 01, 2021, 05:38:29 AM
Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p

People will either obey or move to another place, not rise up  :P

chinese history seems to have it's share of uprisings though. the communists themselves are the result of people rising up...
The CCP-scum know that too, or why else would they have turned China into a giant open air prison/concentration-camp?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 03, 2021, 06:04:25 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 03, 2021, 02:24:08 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 01, 2021, 08:13:04 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 01, 2021, 05:38:29 AM
Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p

People will either obey or move to another place, not rise up  :P

chinese history seems to have it's share of uprisings though. the communists themselves are the result of people rising up...
The CCP-scum know that too, or why else would they have turned China into a giant open air prison/concentration-camp?

Well if you look at Chinese history, a lot of revolts were motivated by starvation.  This doesn't apply now.

The Qing dynasty was overthrown because it was clear that China was centuries behind the West and the country was in danger of being colonised/taken over/broken up.  That too doesn't apply now.

The idea of Chinese rising up to demand democracy once they have become middle class has not really been tested.  But so far that theory doesn't really hold up.  Tiananmen was crushed rather easily. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on April 03, 2021, 07:00:19 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 03, 2021, 06:04:25 AMWell if you look at Chinese history, a lot of revolts were motivated by starvation.  This doesn't apply now.

The Qing dynasty was overthrown because it was clear that China was centuries behind the West and the country was in danger of being colonised/taken over/broken up.  That too doesn't apply now.

Yeah the comparison with the Qing works quite well. The Uighurs today call to mind the Mongol Dzungars in the 18th century. Not many of them around today. Northern Xinjiang is still called Dzungaria but that's about it.  :hmm: The Chinese resettled the area with Kazakhs and, ironically, Uighurs once all the Dzungars were dead or driven off..
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 03, 2021, 07:38:49 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 03, 2021, 06:04:25 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 03, 2021, 02:24:08 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 01, 2021, 08:13:04 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 01, 2021, 05:38:29 AM
Interesting times ahead for China.
On the one hand there's rabid nationalism. On the other there's getting their access to western goods severely disrupted.
Will the lack of H&M finally be enough to get the people to rise up? :p

People will either obey or move to another place, not rise up  :P

chinese history seems to have it's share of uprisings though. the communists themselves are the result of people rising up...
The CCP-scum know that too, or why else would they have turned China into a giant open air prison/concentration-camp?

Well if you look at Chinese history, a lot of revolts were motivated by starvation.  This doesn't apply now.

The Qing dynasty was overthrown because it was clear that China was centuries behind the West and the country was in danger of being colonised/taken over/broken up.  That too doesn't apply now.

The idea of Chinese rising up to demand democracy once they have become middle class has not really been tested.  But so far that theory doesn't really hold up.  Tiananmen was crushed rather easily. 

Except it wouldn't be democracy they'd be demanding. It would be the return of their comfortable autocracy with full easy access to consumer goods of the world.
China has bucked the expectations of people demanding democracy as it opens up due to giving so many of these material freedoms: when you have those more esoteric freedoms like democrwacy become less relevant.
But now those are being taken away...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 03, 2021, 10:21:03 AM
I don't think the end of the CCP regime is going to come because the populace spontaneously rise up and demand democracy in and of itself. It's possible, but not likely IMO. Rather I think it's going to be a combination of succession struggles going awry and domestic policy failure combined with economic downtown. I'm not saying those things are inevitable, but those are the main risks from the regime's point of view.

Bo Xilai vs Xi was less smooth than previous transitions. Xi has exempted himself from the usual CCP power rotation, which only makes the stakes higher. And frankly, I expect Xi will be about as gracious about giving up power as Trump was if he doesn't hang on for life.

As for domestic policy failure combine with economic downtown - IMO it doesn't have to lead to famine as Mono posits it, just a broad agreement that things have gotten a lot worse and that it's the CCP's fault. If the CCP wipes out all of Mono's retirement savings, f. ex., even he might start feeling animosity towards his masters. The CCP's best defence against this is the manipulation of popular sentiment against external enemies along nationalist lines... which we are, of course, seeing plenty of already.

And, of course, a military conflict where the CCP comes out as losers - especially with a high profile loss of Chinese life and negative economic impact on society at large - is potentially highly destabilizing. So it will be interesting to see how far the CCP is willing to push their current bullying line with their neighbours.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 03, 2021, 06:21:59 PM
Isn't it a bit premature to talk about the end of the party?  They exist and we need to deal with them.  Not day dream about the party's end that may or may not come in the next few decades :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 03, 2021, 08:22:09 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 03, 2021, 06:21:59 PM
Isn't it a bit premature to talk about the end of the party?  They exist and we need to deal with them.  Not day dream about the party's end that may or may not come in the next few decades :contract:

I am comfortable speculating about how it will end, if it ends. I am much less comfortable speculating when. Could be soon, could be in the distant future.

But whenever Xi loses power will be a point of vulnerability, whenever and however it happens.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 03, 2021, 09:47:45 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 03, 2021, 06:21:59 PM
Isn't it a bit premature to talk about the end of the party?  They exist and we need to deal with them.  Not day dream about the party's end that may or may not come in the next few decades :contract:

You should say "us," not "them."  You are effectively part of the Chinese Communist Party state apparatus.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 04, 2021, 12:33:25 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 03, 2021, 09:47:45 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 03, 2021, 06:21:59 PM
Isn't it a bit premature to talk about the end of the party?  They exist and we need to deal with them.  Not day dream about the party's end that may or may not come in the next few decades :contract:

You should say "us," not "them."  You are effectively part of the Chinese Communist Party state apparatus.

I am too far down the food chain to make that claim  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 04, 2021, 01:48:41 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 04, 2021, 12:33:25 AM
I am too far down the food chain to make that claim  :P

Just following orders.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on April 04, 2021, 02:08:19 AM
I guess that's what you'd get if you remade The Sound of Music from the pov of the nazis.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/03/china-launches-musical-in-bid-to-counter-uyghur-abuse-allegations

Quote
China launches musical in bid to counter Uyghur abuse allegations
Beijing is attempting to draw attention away from reports it is holding at least one million in Xinjiang internment camps


Agence France-Presse
Sat 3 Apr 2021 07.21 BST

A new state-produced musical set in Xinjiang inspired by the Hollywood blockbuster "La La Land" has hit China's cinemas, portraying a rural idyll of ethnic cohesion devoid of repression, mass surveillance and even the Islam of its majority Uyghur population.

China is on an elaborate PR offensive to rebrand the north-western region where the United States and other western nationals and human rights groups say genocide has been inflicted on the Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities.

As allegations of slavery and forced labour inside Xinjiang's cotton industry have drawn renewed global attention, including big brands like Nike saying they would no longer source materials from the region, inside China, Beijing has been curating a very different narrative for the troubled region.

Rap songs, photo exhibitions and a musical – "The Wings of Songs" – are leading the cultural reframing of the region, while a legion of celebrities have seemingly unprompted leapt to the defence of Xinjiang's tarnished textile industry.

Beijing denies all allegations of abuse and has instead recast Xinjiang as a haven of social cohesion and economic renewal that has turned its back on years of violent extremism thanks to benevolent state intervention.

The movie, whose release was reportedly delayed by a year, focuses on three men from different ethnic groups dreaming of the big time as they gather musical inspiration across cultures in the snow-capped mountains and desertscapes of the vast region.

Trailing the movie, state-run Global Times reported that overseas blockbusters such as "La La Land" have "inspired Chinese studios" to produce their own domestic hits.

But the musical omits the surveillance cameras and security checks that blanket Xinjiang. Also noticeably absent are references to Islam – despite more than half of the population of Xinjiang being Muslim – and there are no mosques or women in veils.

In one scene, a leading character, a well-shaven Uyghur, toasts with a beer in his hand.

At least one million Uyghurs and other mostly Muslim groups have been held in camps in Xinjiang, according to right groups, where authorities are also accused of forcibly sterilising women and imposing forced labour.

That has enraged Beijing, which at first denied the existence of the camps and then defended them as training programmes.

In March, Britain and the EU took joint action with the US and Canada to impose parallel sanctions on senior Chinese officials involved in the mass internment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang province in the first such western action against Beijing since Joe Biden took office.

China hit back immediately, blacklisting MEPs, European diplomats and thinktanks.

Last month, China also swiftly closed down the Clubhouse app, an audio platform where uncensored discussions briefly flowered including on Xinjiang, with Uyghurs giving unvarnished accounts of life to attentive Han Chinese guests.

The current PR push on Xinjiang aims at controlling the narrative for internal consumption, says Larry Ong, of US-based consultancy SinoInsider. Beijing "knows that a lie repeated a thousand times becomes truth", he said.

To many Chinese, that messaging appears to be working.

"I have been to Xinjiang and the film is very realistic," one moviegoer told AFP after seeing "The Wings of Songs" in Beijing. "People are happy, free and open," he said, declining to give his name.

Last week, celebrities, tech brands and state media – whipped up by outrage on China's tightly controlled social media – piled in on several global fashion brands who have raised concerns over forced labour and refused to source cotton from Xinjiang.

Sweden's H&M was the worst-hit and on Wednesday attempted to limit the damage in its fourth-largest market.

The clothing giant issued a statement saying it wanted to regain the trust of people in China, but the message was greeted with scorn on the Twitter-like Weibo platform, where 35 million people shared the fashion chain's comments.

The pushback has taken on a pop culture edge, with a rap released this week castigating "lies" by the "western settlers" about cotton from the region, while state broadcaster CGTN is set to release a documentary on the unrest that prompted the Beijing crackdown.

It is impossible to gain unfettered access to Xinjiang, with foreign media shadowed by authorities on visits and then harassed for their reporting.

This week, BBC journalist John Sudworth hurriedly left China for Taiwan, alleging "intimidation" after reporting on conditions in the cotton farms of Xinjiang.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on April 04, 2021, 02:11:58 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 04, 2021, 01:48:41 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 04, 2021, 12:33:25 AM
I am too far down the food chain to make that claim  :P

Just following orders.

(https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/newshour/app/uploads/2016/02/RTXIE46-258x300.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 04, 2021, 02:27:42 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 04, 2021, 01:48:41 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 04, 2021, 12:33:25 AM
I am too far down the food chain to make that claim  :P

Just following orders.

:yes:  :bowler:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on April 04, 2021, 03:06:33 AM
You guys should take it easy on Mono. It can be very dangerous for him to hint he might not agree with the regime. In some database somewhere a record is being made of his Internet activity, and it can be looked at whenever somebody important enough wants to give his job to somebody else.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 04, 2021, 04:42:19 AM
I don't see why we should care.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Solmyr on April 04, 2021, 04:47:44 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 04, 2021, 03:06:33 AM
You guys should take it easy on Mono. It can be very dangerous for him to hint he might not agree with the regime. In some database somewhere a record is being made of his Internet activity, and it can be looked at whenever somebody important enough wants to give his job to somebody else.

Pretty sure just being on Languish already tanks his social rating.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on April 04, 2021, 07:08:20 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 04, 2021, 03:06:33 AM
You guys should take it easy on Mono. It can be very dangerous for him to hint he might not agree with the regime. In some database somewhere a record is being made of his Internet activity, and it can be looked at whenever somebody important enough wants to give his job to somebody else.

Yes. Mono has a lot of interesting stuff to say on Chinese political leadership and society.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on April 04, 2021, 07:18:01 AM
While I disagree with his views, he certainly enriches the forum with an interesting perspective.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on April 04, 2021, 07:23:29 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 03, 2021, 06:04:25 AMThe idea of Chinese rising up to demand democracy once they have become middle class has not really been tested.  But so far that theory doesn't really hold up.  Tiananmen was crushed rather easily.

Yeah and I'm not sure any Western coalition would win in some generational ideological struggle against China. For one, the chamber of commerce Right in most Western countries would be adamantly against it. Imagine the Cold War against the Soviets with big business interests firmly on the Soviet side. :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 04, 2021, 10:13:29 AM
Fortunately there won't  be a grand ideological struggle because the ruling clique in China hasn't had any ideology since Mao died.  It's a just a group of clever ruthless people willing to do whatever it takes to stay on top and in control.  Every now and then, there is talk about the "Chinese Model" of governance, but the only people that seem really interested are lesser would be autocrats fishing around for a few extra justifications for subverting their own pseudo democracies at home.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on April 04, 2021, 10:24:32 AM
I get the sense that authoritarianism is THE ideology in both Russia and China.  Not authoritarianism as means to get things done, as in fascism and communism, but authoritarianism for the sake of it.  The easiest way to align yourself with Russia and China is to have your military or police shoot several hundred civilians.  The principle of the government having the right to mow down its citizens is the core value that should be defended everywhere.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on April 04, 2021, 10:56:34 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2021, 10:24:32 AM
I get the sense that authoritarianism is THE ideology in both Russia and China.  Not authoritarianism as means to get things done, as in fascism and communism, but authoritarianism for the sake of it.  The easiest way to align yourself with Russia and China is to have your military or police shoot several hundred civilians.  The principle of the government having the right to mow down its citizens is the core value that should be defended everywhere.

"Only an iron fist can keep this country together"? In the case of Russia it might be related to an attempt at reform and liberal democracy ended in the USSR falling apart?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 04, 2021, 12:38:44 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 09, 2021, 02:51:38 AM
Is there any evidence that the judicial arbitration of contracts has changed in recent months?

Story ran yesterday that international arbitration filings doubled over the past year in Singapore.  HK filings are flat.

In my own practice, I sometimes advise clients on dispute resolution clauses including choice of forum.  I personally would hesitate to recommend a HK forum to any non-PRC entity dealing with a counterparty with some PRC influence. It looks like the market is making the same judgment generally. I have no proof that influence has swayed the outcome of any HK commercial arbitration, but arbitrations are private so there is no way to know for sure.  That is the way the *perception* of absolute probity and neutrality is essential and anything that damages that perception can be fatal.  To quote the mob boss from Casino: even if you think things are basically OK, why take a chance?

We've discussed this before but this all part of a piece.  Hong Kong entered the millennium as one of the three great world cities., along with London and New York.  It is heading rapidly to a different status as a significant but second tier Chinese provincial city, secondary to Beijing and Shanghai.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 08, 2021, 10:54:04 AM
And linked to that I see that there's been a fairly negative business reaction to proposals in Hong Kong to reduce the publicly available information on corporate registers.

I could be wrong but my guess would be that the intention is to make it more difficult to discover links between government officials in Beijing/their relatives and connections they may have with Hong Kong companies or Hong Kong interests.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 12, 2021, 09:12:30 AM
Re. my suspicion that China might do something in relation to Taiwan to test Biden:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-china-defense/taiwan-reports-largest-incursion-yet-by-chinese-air-force-idUSKBN2BZ1L1
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on April 12, 2021, 11:05:50 AM
I kind of see China having two realistic options when it comes to moving on Taiwan:

1. Expect the U.S. will defend Taiwan in full:  This would make the PLA planners see it as necessary to not just attack Taiwan, but obliterate U.S. military threats in the regions (i.e. any CVNs, U.S bases on Okinawa, etc).  This would inevitably drag us, and likely Japan/other allies into a major conventional conflict that becomes very dangerous, very quickly.  A massive pre-emptive attack on the US bases on Okinawa, or the destruction of a CVN could not help but bring out all of the Pearl Harbor references one would care to muster.  Overall, a pretty bad idea.

2.  A full-focus attack on Taiwan alone, that completely ignores US/allies.  Perhaps the best option...if the attack/cross-channel crossing has enough surprise, and they don't wait to long to move personnel onto Taiwan proper (a couple days at most)  I could easily be wrong/ignorant/stupid, but I actually think that if PLA troops move onto Taiwan en masse, and in rapid order (not waiting for things like air superiority, etc), Taiwan will probably fold very quickly...far more quickly than most conventional war planners and number crunchers think.  Ignoring US forces also means they would test our resolve/dare us to put our money where our mouth is, and contest the propaganda angle that we are "attacking China" while they resolve an "internal matter".  Essentially try and make it a "Crimea-East" situation.

Alas, I tend to think it is only a matter of time, and not that much time anymore either, before they move on Taiwan...their only uncertainty is how far we will go to defend them.  Not to tie it in too much with the matters in Ukraine...but I am pretty certain that if Putin moves on Ukraine in a big way...and the West just sits by and watches, China could see that as the US/West lacking any kind of resolve, and Taiwan could shortly follow.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on April 12, 2021, 11:34:37 AM
Reasonable, the best way for China to do it would be in, or immediately after, the lame duck period after the next new president is elected. If they are quick enough a new baked president will be more or less served a fait accompli and it would perhaps be difficult to gather support for a war to re-conquer an already defeated Taiwan.

If successful it would be difficult for the US to setup a counter-China alliance. Trump has already showed that the US is an untrustworthy long term ally and a strategic defeat would remove the rest of the credibility.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 12, 2021, 11:38:29 AM
In earlier times I'd expect to see a lame duck president co-ordinate with a successor, but with the current crop of GOP that might be less certain.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on April 12, 2021, 11:42:17 AM
I imagine it would be dangerous if trump were to win, he's unpredictable and it is a huge gamble. But when he loses next time it will be a very uncoordinated handover.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on April 12, 2021, 11:42:34 AM
Chances of Xi and Putin coordinating to resolve their pending border adjustments simultaneously?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 12, 2021, 11:50:53 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 12, 2021, 11:42:34 AM
Chances of Xi and Putin coordinating to resolve their pending border adjustments simultaneously?

Possible, but China and Russia are not exactly buddies and neither are above playing the other.

I'd expect it'd be more along the lines of one of them deciding to make a move and the other deciding that changes things enough that they should also move.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on April 12, 2021, 11:52:31 AM
Quote from: Threviel on April 12, 2021, 11:34:37 AM
Reasonable, the best way for China to do it would be in, or immediately after, the lame duck period after the next new president is elected. If they are quick enough a new baked president will be more or less served a fait accompli and it would perhaps be difficult to gather support for a war to re-conquer an already defeated Taiwan.

If successful it would be difficult for the US to setup a counter-China alliance. Trump has already showed that the US is an untrustworthy long term ally and a strategic defeat would remove the rest of the credibility.

It's not unheard of for a defeated President to order military action during their lame-duck period.  Bush Senior ordered troops into Somalia in December 1992.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on April 12, 2021, 11:56:55 AM
Quote from: Barrister on April 12, 2021, 11:52:31 AM
Quote from: Threviel on April 12, 2021, 11:34:37 AM
Reasonable, the best way for China to do it would be in, or immediately after, the lame duck period after the next new president is elected. If they are quick enough a new baked president will be more or less served a fait accompli and it would perhaps be difficult to gather support for a war to re-conquer an already defeated Taiwan.

If successful it would be difficult for the US to setup a counter-China alliance. Trump has already showed that the US is an untrustworthy long term ally and a strategic defeat would remove the rest of the credibility.

It's not unheard of for a defeated President to order military action during their lame-duck period.  Bush Senior ordered troops into Somalia in December 1992.

Yeah, for a normal president it would be an opportunity to do the right thing without needing to be bothered by a future election. Hence the "or immediately after", it would all depend on the personalities involved.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on April 12, 2021, 12:02:35 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 12, 2021, 11:50:53 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 12, 2021, 11:42:34 AM
Chances of Xi and Putin coordinating to resolve their pending border adjustments simultaneously?

Possible, but China and Russia are not exactly buddies and neither are above playing the other.

I'd expect it'd be more along the lines of one of them deciding to make a move and the other deciding that changes things enough that they should also move.

Fair, I think.  Both are looking in very different, non-overlapping strategic directions, and, at least superficially, Putin and Xi have shown some public "fondness" for each other.

At the very least, one can expect each will support the other in any of the inevitable (lack of) action in the UNSC following any moves.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 12, 2021, 12:09:04 PM
Oh yes, both will be very adamant in support the right of big powers to throw their weight around without the US or international society doing anything about it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 15, 2021, 03:15:04 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/14/uyghur-commons-vote-all-party-motion-declaration-genocide-xinjiang-china

QuoteCommons to vote on declaration of genocide in Xinjiang province

The House of Commons is to be given a chance to vote to declare that a genocide is under way in Xinjiang province in China, in a move likely to damage Sino-British relations.

The organisers hope that at least two-thirds of MPs will vote on 22 April to back the all-party motion in a declaration of intent against China for its treatment of the Uyghur Muslims.

Relations are already at a low ebb after China sanctioned 10 individuals and entities in the UK in response to the Foreign Office imposing sanctions on four Chinese officials implicated in setting up detention camps in Xinjiang.

Ministers are likely to be asked to abstain in the vote on the basis that the government believes it is for the international courts alone to declare a genocide. The Foreign Office also supports the UN high commissioner on human rights being allowed by China to go to Xinjiang to conduct an unfettered inquiry.

China has already slapped sanctions on some MPs critical of China's human rights record, including the chairman of the foreign affairs select committee, Tom Tugendhat, and the chair of the Conservative party policy board, Neil O'Brien.

It is very rare for the Commons to make collective decisions on genocide, but MPs did vote in April 2016 by 278 to 0 in April 2016 to say the Yazidis had suffered genocide at the hands of Islamic State. The latest motion does not declare a terrorist group is committing genocide, but a fellow member of the UN security council.

The Foreign Office minister at the time, Tobias Ellwood, said he believed personally that a genocide was under way, but it was not for the UK government to have an opinion.

Although the new vote will be dismissed as non-binding on government, a large number of British MPs denouncing China for committing genocide could have a large diplomatic and moral impact.

The motion due to be included on the order paper on Thursday reads: "This house believes the Uyghurs and other ethnic and religious minorities in the Xinjiang region are suffering crimes against humanity and genocide."

It also calls on the government to fulfil its obligations under the convention on the prevention of genocide and other instruments of international law to bring it to an end.

The motion points out that two of the UK's closest allies – the US and Canada – have declared it a genocide.

The organisers of the motion are hoping that opposition frontbenches will impose a three-line whip to ensure there is a strong turnout on Thursday afternoon, and as many as 400 MPs will go through the division lobbies.

The Yazidi vote in 2016 was on a Wednesday when MPs were less likely to have already returned to their constituencies.

The foreign affairs select committee investigation into Xinjiang detention camps is looking at whether the UK should follow the US with a total ban on cotton imports from the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. It is also likely to recommend an update to the Modern Slavery Act, with a new corporate duty to prevent harm in business supply chains, so mandating companies to undertake due diligence or face fines. The Modern Slavery Act merely requires companies to publish reports on their diligence.

The committee has also been given evidence on "the conspicuous silence of the UN International Labour Organisation about the extent of forced labour in Xinjiang".

The news of the vote comes as a group of parliamentarians led by Lord Patten and the shadow foreign secretary, Lisa Nandy, call for Boris Johnson to extend limited sanctions to Hong Kong officials.

In a letter to Johnson, more than 100 parliamentarians write: "This unprecedented attack on democratic representatives of the western world deserves a robust and coordinated response.

"The time has come to expand the list of Chinese officials sanctioned for the gross human rights abuses taking place against the Uyghurs, including the architect of the detention camps, Chen Quanguo, and to finally introduce Magnitsky sanctions against the officials and entities responsible for the crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 15, 2021, 04:52:04 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 08, 2021, 10:54:04 AM
And linked to that I see that there's been a fairly negative business reaction to proposals in Hong Kong to reduce the publicly available information on corporate registers.

I could be wrong but my guess would be that the intention is to make it more difficult to discover links between government officials in Beijing/their relatives and connections they may have with Hong Kong companies or Hong Kong interests.

Yes.  And this will be a blow to the rioters and pan-democrats.  One of their favourite tactics is doxxing businesses interests and owners for supporting the government.  This will make it easier for companies to throw their weight behind the government without the owners being harrassed by angry, young internet users. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on April 15, 2021, 08:29:15 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 15, 2021, 04:52:04 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 08, 2021, 10:54:04 AM
And linked to that I see that there's been a fairly negative business reaction to proposals in Hong Kong to reduce the publicly available information on corporate registers.

I could be wrong but my guess would be that the intention is to make it more difficult to discover links between government officials in Beijing/their relatives and connections they may have with Hong Kong companies or Hong Kong interests.

Yes.  And this will be a blow to the rioters and pan-democrats.  One of their favourite tactics is doxxing businesses interests and owners for supporting the government.  This will make it easier for companies to throw their weight behind the government without the owners being harrassed by angry, young internet users.

I don't think that the victory of the thugs over the pro-democracy movement in the battle for Hong Kong will make it likelier that companies want to rely on thugs for legal protections.  If companies want to rely on thugs, there are plenty of banana republics closer than Hong Kong.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 15, 2021, 10:25:12 PM
A very senior guy - I think roughly the Chinese equivalent of the head of the CDC - recently stated that the efficacy of the Sinovac vaccine was lower than hoped. Shortly thereafter he retracted the statement, saying it was being "taken out of context."

Now, apparently the Chinese government is allowing the Pfizer vaccine, but unlike Sinovac (which is free in China) people will have to pay for Pfizer vaccines. Anecdotally a very great number of people are willing to pay for Pfizer.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 16, 2021, 10:58:05 PM
QuoteChina Backs Away as Philippines and U.S. Send Impressive Fleet to West Philippine Sea

In a surprising move, the Philippines sent its strongest response yet against China's expansion into the West Philippine Sea. Not since 2012 has the Philippines moved its naval forces to the West Philippine Sea to challenge China's militarization of the area. The move is a highly coordinated response with the United States.

In March, the Philippines reported the presence of 220 Chinese vessels at Julian Felipe Reef. That number has been reduced to fewer than 10 as of April 13.

"The Chinese have blinked," retired U.S. Navy officer Jerry Hendrix told Forbes.
...

Meanwhile, the U.S. also sent its aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to the area. But an American aircraft carrier never travels alone. With every sighting of a U.S. carrier, you can expect it brings along a large escort of submarines, destroyers, and cruisers protecting it from other vessels. This is on top of the dozens of aircraft it carries (it can carry up to 90 aircraft and can accommodate 4,500 personnel).

The U.S. also deployed the USS Makin Island, a formidable assault ship that can carry up to 20 attack aircraft or stealth strike-fighters. It also has its own escorts of submarines, destroyers, and cruisers.

https://www.esquiremag.ph/politics/news/china-backs-down-a00293-20210416-lfrm
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 19, 2021, 09:28:09 PM
Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 20, 2021, 05:55:58 AM
Quote from: Valmy on April 19, 2021, 09:28:09 PM
Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

the same thing that would happen if we continued to blink in the face of China's provocations, but in a position that'll be -ideally- less advantageous for China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on April 20, 2021, 06:14:50 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 20, 2021, 05:55:58 AM
Quote from: Valmy on April 19, 2021, 09:28:09 PM
Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

the same thing that would happen if we continued to blink in the face of China's provocations, but in a position that'll be -ideally- less advantageous for China.

:yes:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 20, 2021, 11:16:06 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 20, 2021, 05:55:58 AM
Quote from: Valmy on April 19, 2021, 09:28:09 PM
Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

the same thing that would happen if we continued to blink in the face of China's provocations, but in a position that'll be -ideally- less advantageous for China.

Not sure what to do with that. Is war inevitable and we are just jockeying for a good starting position?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 21, 2021, 12:48:46 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 20, 2021, 11:16:06 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 20, 2021, 05:55:58 AM
Quote from: Valmy on April 19, 2021, 09:28:09 PM
Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

the same thing that would happen if we continued to blink in the face of China's provocations, but in a position that'll be -ideally- less advantageous for China.

Not sure what to do with that. Is war inevitable and we are just jockeying for a good starting position?

yes
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 21, 2021, 01:04:55 PM
I don't think war is inevitable. But I don't think there's a clear correlation between being less confrontational with China lessening the chance of war, and being more robust increasing it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 21, 2021, 02:01:11 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 19, 2021, 09:28:09 PM
Well that is certainly something Teddy would have approved of. Very bully big stick there.

But, you know, what happens if the Chinese decide to not blink at some point?

China knows that the US can't and won't sustain that kind of naval deployment.  They will just keep steadily fortifying and improving the islands and features they have occupied.  Time is on their side.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on April 21, 2021, 02:06:22 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 21, 2021, 01:04:55 PM
I don't think war is inevitable. But I don't think there's a clear correlation between being less confrontational with China lessening the chance of war, and being more robust increasing it.

I don't know if war between China and the U.S. is inevitable...but unless either the government in Beijing falls, or Taiwan preemptively surrenders, I think a fight between China and Taiwan is inevitable. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on April 21, 2021, 02:30:39 PM
China in some ways is an easier to deal with problem then Russia.

China, I believe, is fundamentally "sane" in their approach. They might have hostile priorities and questionable values, but they can be understood if you just understand what they want, and how they think they can go about getting what they want. They are rational.

If we end up in a war with them, I suspect it will be because they decided that war was worth the risk.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 21, 2021, 04:26:25 PM
Rationality has its own dangers and limitations.  China may act rationally but will the US?  Or more to the point, will the US act or react in way that China thinks would be rational for the US.  The Korean War started in part because of rational calculations that the US would not intervene military into such a peripheral theater of competition. It's not too hard to imagine another rational miscalculation of intentions over Taiwan or the South Pacific or Diayou/Senkaku.  China could commit to force calculating that that US interests were too attenuated to risk armed conflict on Chinese terms.  It is ingrained in Chinese thinking that these are core areas of interest for China but of little or limited strategic value of the US.  But such a realist calculation misses the broader issues at stake for the US.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on April 21, 2021, 05:31:40 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 21, 2021, 04:26:25 PM
Rationality has its own dangers and limitations.  China may act rationally but will the US?  Or more to the point, will the US act or react in way that China thinks would be rational for the US.  The Korean War started in part because of rational calculations that the US would not intervene military into such a peripheral theater of competition. It's not too hard to imagine another rational miscalculation of intentions over Taiwan or the South Pacific or Diayou/Senkaku.  China could commit to force calculating that that US interests were too attenuated to risk armed conflict on Chinese terms.  It is ingrained in Chinese thinking that these are core areas of interest for China but of little or limited strategic value of the US.  But such a realist calculation misses the broader issues at stake for the US.

Well, I am not saying I am not worried about war. I am saying I think China is basically reasonably predictable.

In contrast to say, Russia. Putin is NOT predictable, or rather, Russia is not predictable because the shots are being called by someone who actually doesn't give much of a shit about Russia, he just cares about himself.

So you cannot look at the Ukraine and say "Well, this just doesn't make sense for Russia!". Because that might be true, and Putin may not care. Like many a personal dictator before him.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on April 21, 2021, 06:17:45 PM
I think Putin does care about Russia, at the very least Russia is his piggybank.  All his fortune won't be worth much if Russia goes tits up.  I think Russia is just a much more aggressive player than China.  China plays according to the strength of their position, while Russia plays according to the strength of their opponent's position.  It doesn't matter if you have a weak hand if your opponent isn't willing to call your bluff.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 21, 2021, 06:20:52 PM
I don't think it's rational or whether he cares or not. I think on the global system at the minute - and I can't remember who said this - but Russia basically is an anarchist. They don't want a global system that constrains them or the individuals who have captured the state. I think China has an alternative global rules based system in mind.

At the minute I think there's overlap and by the end of Putin's time in office I expect Russia will be largely part of a Chinese Eurasian sphere.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 21, 2021, 08:33:29 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 21, 2021, 06:20:52 PM
I don't think it's rational or whether he cares or not. I think on the global system at the minute - and I can't remember who said this - but Russia basically is an anarchist. They don't want a global system that constrains them or the individuals who have captured the state. I think China has an alternative global rules based system in mind..

Don't think I agree with either of those.
Putin's Russia is not anarchistic - it just seems that way because they are fighting against a hegmonic world system that consigns them to a position of relative inferiority.  The fact that they are in that position because on objective measures of state power - economic and technological - they are inferior is no consolation to them.  They would be perfectly happy with a world system with rules - even constraining rules - if it put them in position of equality with the great powers (i.e the US and China now).  Their goal is not freedom from constraint but respect.

China OTOH is essentially content with a world system that has underwritten their striking rise to superpower status, but wants to make some amendments to tone down or suppress the aspects it doesn't like - namely the core value of universal human rights - and linked with that - the notion that there is no absolute distinction between domestic and foreign concerns.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 22, 2021, 12:55:27 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/uk-mps-declare-china-is-committing-genocide-against-uyghurs-in-xinjiang

Quote
UK MPs declare China is committing genocide against Uyghurs in Xinjiang

British MPs voted to declare that China is committing genocide against the Uyghur people in Xinjiang province.

The motion passed on Thursday does not compel the government to act but is likely to mark a further decline in relations with China.

Nigel Adams, the Asia minister, admitted there was credible evidence of widespread use of forced labour, internment camps, and the targeting of ethnic groups. The actions amounted to clear and systematic abuse of human rights, but he said the UK's longstanding position was that determining genocide is for "competent national and international courts".

The vote, part of a growing movement in western democracies, was hailed by the chair of the US Senate foreign relations committee, Bob Menendez, who said the UK parliament had "shone a light on the egregious abuses the Chinese state commits against the Uyghur people. The free world must be united in holding the Chinese government to account for these abuses."

Senator Mario Rubio, the vice-chair of the US Senate select committee on intelligence, said: "One by one, democratic nations are calling out the Chinese government persecution of the Uyghur people We cannot stand idly by while these horrific abuses continue."

Nusrat Ghani, the author of the motion and a former Conservative minister, said: "The work does not stop here. We cannot continue business as usual with China while these atrocities continue. The government must now act urgently to ensure our supply chains are not tainted by goods made with Uyghur forced labour."

Adams turned down an invitation from his backbenchers to give formal government evidence to the Uyghur tribunal being led by Sir Geoffrey Nice, but said he had met the lawyer this week.

He said the government had sent a powerful message in March by sanctioning four senior Chinese officials involved in the abuses in Xinjiang province.

The shadow Foreign Office minister Stephen Kinnock said ministers needed to go further by widening the pool of Chinese officials sanctioned, ending further formal economic consultations with China, and advocating for the UN general assembly to request an advisory opinion from the international court of justice on the question of genocide.

China recently sanctioned 10 UK individuals and entities, including five MPs, as a response to the UK sanctions. Tim Loughton, one of the five MPs, told the Chinese embassy he would not be cowed and had only been re-energised by the sanctions.

The Foreign Office is caught in a growing dilemma as it seeks to compartmentalise its disagreements over the political and authoritarian direction of China from its efforts to persuade the country on its need to reduce its carbon emissions.

The Liberal Democrats' foreign affairs spokesperson, Layla Moran, has called on the government to commit to a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 01:04:16 PM
What's the deal with parliaments in different countries voting on whether or not something is genocide?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on April 22, 2021, 01:10:10 PM
It makes the victims feel better.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 22, 2021, 01:16:19 PM
Quote from: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 01:04:16 PM
What's the deal with parliaments in different countries voting on whether or not something is genocide?

Aren't there supposed to be certain treaty obligations? I think there is some UN treaty requiring a country do certain things when a genocide is going on...

Write a sternly worded letter or something.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on April 22, 2021, 01:19:30 PM
I am sure China would veto said letter.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on April 22, 2021, 01:27:42 PM
Quote from: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 01:04:16 PM
What's the deal with parliaments in different countries voting on whether or not something is genocide?

Well it must have some effect because it really pisses the Chinese off when other countries do it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 22, 2021, 01:47:36 PM
Quote from: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 01:04:16 PM
What's the deal with parliaments in different countries voting on whether or not something is genocide?

They investigate the evidence they have and, upon reflection, declare that yes in this case they consider it genocide. This provides some impetus for further action (slowly, generally, since it's foreign policy), and triggers some sanctions of various sorts.

Which part is confusing to you?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 05:24:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 22, 2021, 01:47:36 PM
Quote from: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 01:04:16 PM
What's the deal with parliaments in different countries voting on whether or not something is genocide?

They investigate the evidence they have and, upon reflection, declare that yes in this case they consider it genocide. This provides some impetus for further action (slowly, generally, since it's foreign policy), and triggers some sanctions of various sorts.

Which part is confusing to you?

The state does things all the time without parliament voting on it. Just seems weird to me to decide genocide in parliament, for several reasons. Making it a political decision sends the signal that genocide is just a matter of perspective.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 23, 2021, 03:43:57 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 21, 2021, 08:33:29 PM
Don't think I agree with either of those.
Putin's Russia is not anarchistic - it just seems that way because they are fighting against a hegmonic world system that consigns them to a position of relative inferiority.  The fact that they are in that position because on objective measures of state power - economic and technological - they are inferior is no consolation to them.  They would be perfectly happy with a world system with rules - even constraining rules - if it put them in position of equality with the great powers (i.e the US and China now).  Their goal is not freedom from constraint but respect.
Maybe - the thing that I find very striking about Russia is the extent to which it frames its actions in the language and concepts of the Western rules. So with their interventions in Syria and Libya, or the invasion of Ukraine and Georgia, the reasoning the Russian state offers for that is typically right to protect language. It is the same language that the Western powers used to justify intervening in Kosovo, or Iraq or Libya.

Similarly one of the reasons I think for the 2016 election meddling was possibly that it was 20 years on from Americans meddling in Russian elections while proclaiming how vital elections were.

And I think that's the point I always get with Russia is they don't believe there is a rules-based system. I think what they perceive is a hegemon exercising power - meddling in elections, intervening in domestic conflicts - in the name of human rights or whatever, but always in their interests. So I think in the Russian view the rules are hypocrisy used selectively to cover and justify the actions of the hegemon, so in Russia's response they own subvert and almost parody the "rules". I think Russia is less wanting respect than wanting to erode the perceived hypocrisy/moral grandstanding of rule-makers. I think it almost wants to expose the rules-lessness of the Western order and that at heart it's basically kind of Schmittian - the rules only apply to the West's enemies.

I think the one big exception is the striking degree that Russia is willing is using to use force in other countries to kill political opponents/exiles: the poisonings in the UK, the bomb in Czechia. There they just deny it.

QuoteChina OTOH is essentially content with a world system that has underwritten their striking rise to superpower status, but wants to make some amendments to tone down or suppress the aspects it doesn't like - namely the core value of universal human rights - and linked with that - the notion that there is no absolute distinction between domestic and foreign concerns.
Isn't that a new world system/set of rules though?

And I think the last point on domestic/foreign concerns is only true to a point. I think we seen in China's behaviour towards countries that are aligned with it, or depend on it that China wants those countries to shut down domestic critics of China. This is something that you can see in Canada, Australia, New Zealand and in countries in South-East Asia.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on April 23, 2021, 03:49:52 AM
Quote from: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 05:24:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 22, 2021, 01:47:36 PM
Quote from: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 01:04:16 PM
What's the deal with parliaments in different countries voting on whether or not something is genocide?

They investigate the evidence they have and, upon reflection, declare that yes in this case they consider it genocide. This provides some impetus for further action (slowly, generally, since it's foreign policy), and triggers some sanctions of various sorts.

Which part is confusing to you?

The state does things all the time without parliament voting on it. Just seems weird to me to decide genocide in parliament, for several reasons. Making it a political decision sends the signal that genocide is just a matter of perspective.

I think it is wonderful. It looks as something is being done without anything actually being done. It saves a lot of energy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 23, 2021, 04:28:54 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 23, 2021, 03:49:52 AM
Quote from: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 05:24:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 22, 2021, 01:47:36 PM
Quote from: The Brain on April 22, 2021, 01:04:16 PM
What's the deal with parliaments in different countries voting on whether or not something is genocide?

They investigate the evidence they have and, upon reflection, declare that yes in this case they consider it genocide. This provides some impetus for further action (slowly, generally, since it's foreign policy), and triggers some sanctions of various sorts.

Which part is confusing to you?

The state does things all the time without parliament voting on it. Just seems weird to me to decide genocide in parliament, for several reasons. Making it a political decision sends the signal that genocide is just a matter of perspective.

I think it is wonderful. It looks as something is being done without anything actually being done. It saves a lot of energy.

I think it is important as a step toward doing something. Makes it a bit harder to look go cozying up to China when your country says that China is committing genocide.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 23, 2021, 04:45:49 AM
I mean there is a question of what you can do when it's China not a small, pariah state. Especially as, from my understanding, a lot of the thinking by political scientists/academics in recent years has been broad-brush sanctions don't work - ones targetted to individuals have more impact (which is why states have gone down that route). The UK has sanctioned Chinese government figures and at least one company operating in Xinjiang.

But I think it's like the trade bill that's working through parliament and rebels keep trying to add an amendment on trade deals with countries that parliament or the courts (depending on which version of the amdendment you have) declare are committing genocide. The issue is the UK doesn't have a trade deal with China so it wouldn't actually make any difference.

On the other hand I think the Cameron-Osborne "Golden Century" approach with China is definitely dead.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 23, 2021, 10:06:52 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 23, 2021, 03:49:52 AM
I think it is wonderful. It looks as something is being done without anything actually being done. It saves a lot of energy.

What do you think is the right course of action? What, in your eyes, would not just be a cynical but ultimately pointless gesture signifying nothing?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on April 23, 2021, 11:37:16 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 21, 2021, 06:17:45 PM
I think Putin does care about Russia, at the very least Russia is his piggybank.  All his fortune won't be worth much if Russia goes tits up.  I think Russia is just a much more aggressive player than China.  China plays according to the strength of their position, while Russia plays according to the strength of their opponent's position.  It doesn't matter if you have a weak hand if your opponent isn't willing to call your bluff.


My point about Putin though is that if his *personal* position is in peril, he won't sacrifice it for Russia. He is like every other dictator in that sense - Russia is only useful to him in that it provides him with what he wants. That is dangerous, because it means that they don't really make a sober analysis about when to back down and take a "loss". You see this over and over and over in history. Dictators NEVER give up, because they know their personal power and status cannot survive a defeat, and they don't actually care about their country.a
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on April 23, 2021, 11:43:15 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 23, 2021, 10:06:52 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 23, 2021, 03:49:52 AM
I think it is wonderful. It looks as something is being done without anything actually being done. It saves a lot of energy.

What do you think is the right course of action? What, in your eyes, would not just be a cynical but ultimately pointless gesture signifying nothing?

Yeah, I am kind of at a loss there. What should the West DO about China and their actions?

I mean....whatever the West can do, it has to start with the political realization and will that something ought to be done. So this kind of stuff is exactly what we would want, right? More politicians realizing that cynical and pointless gestures will get them notice and votes? I think that is how democracy works, right?

This is always the problem with people who want things done - even when they are right and well meaning. You cannot get from A to Z without going through the steps in between. And that sucks almost all of the time.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on April 23, 2021, 11:54:46 AM
The west can't really do much in regards to china. its too integrated in our economy. strongly worded letters and toothless sanctions are the most we can do, i think.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 23, 2021, 12:09:22 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 23, 2021, 11:54:46 AM
The west can't really do much in regards to china. its too integrated in our economy. strongly worded letters and toothless sanctions are the most we can do, i think.

Yeah, I think those things are tiny but still may matter. Many little grains of sands, basically.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on April 23, 2021, 12:15:06 PM
China makes our stuff but China cannot feed it's population by itself. It is a delicate balance on both sides.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on April 23, 2021, 12:17:54 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 23, 2021, 12:09:22 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 23, 2021, 11:54:46 AM
The west can't really do much in regards to china. its too integrated in our economy. strongly worded letters and toothless sanctions are the most we can do, i think.

Yeah, I think those things are tiny but still may matter. Many little grains of sands, basically.

I don't know if it's just the (controlled) media making it out of china, but theses tiny actions seem to get the Chinese population more entrenched. which works out for Xi. the populace sides with the government against the lying west.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on April 23, 2021, 12:36:38 PM
At the risk of exposing my ignorance....why is China screwing over the Ughyurs to begin with? What is the perception of the threat that needs the action being taken?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 23, 2021, 12:37:10 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 23, 2021, 12:17:54 PM
I don't know if it's just the (controlled) media making it out of china, but theses tiny actions seem to get the Chinese population more entrenched. which works out for Xi. the populace sides with the government against the lying west.

Hard to tell, honestly. Few Chinese people are going to speak out against the government these days. IMO, if the population sentiment moves it's going to come as an apparently sudden shift from "everything as usual" to "holy shit, where did this popular unrest come from" with subtle signals only really noticable in retrospect (unless you're very very looped in).

That's my expectation. I know Chinese people in China who speak out against the government privately - and even semi-publicly - but most folks are going to keep their heads down.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on April 23, 2021, 12:46:47 PM
Quote from: Berkut on April 23, 2021, 12:36:38 PM
At the risk of exposing my ignorance....why is China screwing over the Ughyurs to begin with? What is the perception of the threat that needs the action being taken?

They're muslims who have agitated for independence in the past.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 23, 2021, 12:48:29 PM
Quote from: Berkut on April 23, 2021, 12:36:38 PM
At the risk of exposing my ignorance....why is China screwing over the Ughyurs to begin with? What is the perception of the threat that needs the action being taken?

I think there are a few factors in play.

1) It's just part of the general attempt at gradually assimilate minorities within the current imperial borders. The Uighurs have perhaps been more resistant than other groups in recent times.

2) The Uighurs are Muslims, and some of their pushback against Hanification has centred on their religious practices, and has - on at least a few occasions - led to terrorist type attacks inside core Han areas (mostly knife attacks). This has - historically - allowed the central government to speak of Muslim terrorists and act against the Uighurs without much comment for decades as they've tapped into anti-Muslim and anti-terrorist points of view.

3) The central government is highly suspicious of organized groups that are not beholden to the party. Religious groupings are seen as potential locuses for organizing anti-government resistance, and are therefore monitored and frequently required to show submission in various ways - and punished if they're not. Xi and his clique are particularly insecure in this regard, but it goes back before him (e.g. Falun Gong, control of Chinese Christians etc).

4) There has been large scale riots and clashes between Uighurs and Han in Xinjiang, f. ex. the Urumqi riots of 2009 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2009_%C3%9Cr%C3%BCmqi_riots). From the perspective of individual Han people it's very much a "I'm just trying to live my life in this part of China, the Uighurs are unreasonably violent and hateful - the government should protect me." From the Uighur perspective it's something like "they're trying to make us a minority in our own land by bringing in countless settlers, and they're keeping us as second class citizens with wealth accumulation, jobs, and influence primarily accruing to Han people" (this is the same story in Tibet as well).

5) And yes, there's an Uighur independence movement which is anathema to Chinese imperialist ambitions.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 23, 2021, 12:59:00 PM
I do think with the Uighurs that the CCP knows nothing lasts forever, including their rule... So they better make the genocide of non-han folks in the west a fait accompli just in case. The whole civilization not country world view at work.

And yeah, the west has really failed the Uighurs due to China being able to lean into the fighting terrorism angle.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 23, 2021, 01:13:48 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 23, 2021, 12:59:00 PM
I do think with the Uighurs that the CCP knows nothing lasts forever, including their rule... So they better make the genocide of non-han folks in the west a fait accompli just in case. The whole civilization not country world view at work.

And yeah, the west has really failed the Uighurs due to China being able to lean into the fighting terrorism angle.

The CCP would have found another reason to do what they do so it's not something to be laid at the door of the West. That's too easy a cop out.
What is typical is that the many islamic countries, who are so glad to shit on the west for perceived slights towards their 'religion', are not reacting. From officials that's to be expected since their usually criminals themselves, but their populaces aren't speaking out either. Destroying the Uyghurs is apparently less bad that Macron saying that Paty was in his right. No oil boycots this time it seems.
And that's something to populations in West also notice which will not help the ability of the West to act in a meaningful and coordinated way (on the contrary: I see  way too many people agreeing with the CCP on their dealings with the Uyghurs)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 23, 2021, 01:22:22 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 23, 2021, 01:13:48 PM
The CCP would have found another reason to do what they do so it's not something to be laid at the door of the West. That's too easy a cop out.

Yeah agreed. I don't think it's something that the West is responsible for. It has coloured the West's perception, I think, at least until fairly recently.

QuoteWhat is typical is that the many islamic countries, who are so glad to shit on the west for perceived slights towards their 'religion', are not reacting. From officials that's to be expected since their usually criminals themselves, but their populaces aren't speaking out either.

Yeah, it seems that a non-trivial set of governments in the Muslim world are more interested in collaboration with China than doing much for the Uighurs. That said, as I understand it Turkey - and the Turkish population in general - are pretty sympathetic to then Uighurs given the ethno-cultural connection (Uighurs are a Turkic people).

THAT said, China is definitely recruiting amenable Turks on an individual level to help with the suppression of the Uighurs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 23, 2021, 01:29:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 23, 2021, 01:22:22 PM
Yeah, it seems that a non-trivial set of governments in the Muslim world are more interested in collaboration with China than doing much for the Uighurs. That said, as I understand it Turkey - and the Turkish population in general - are pretty sympathetic to then Uighurs given the ethno-cultural connection (Uighurs are a Turkic people).

THAT said, China is definitely recruiting amenable Turks on an individual level to help with the suppression of the Uighurs.
Yeah I think Turkey has been far stronger on this than most other governments especially in the Middle East but also Pakistan - and interestingly there are reports of China considering sending a peacekeeping force into Afghanistan presumably to support pro-Pakistan elements.

And, obviously, the most prominent individual/celebrity statement was Ozil which was very much aimed at the rest of the Muslim world not calling this out. I think that was a not insignificant reason Arsenal decided to move him on, so he's now playing in Turkey.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 24, 2021, 07:39:18 AM
Quote from: Berkut on April 23, 2021, 12:36:38 PM
At the risk of exposing my ignorance....why is China screwing over the Ughyurs to begin with? What is the perception of the threat that needs the action being taken?

The Uighurs are viewed as terrorists or at least terrorist supporters by Mainland Chinese. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Kunming_attack

QuoteA group of eight knife-wielding terrorists attacked passengers in the Kunming Railway Station in Kunming, Yunnan, China, on 1 March 2014.[2] The attackers pulled out long-bladed knives and stabbed and slashed passengers at random. The assailants killed 31 civilians and injured more than 140 people.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 24, 2021, 09:29:03 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 24, 2021, 07:39:18 AM
Quote from: Berkut on April 23, 2021, 12:36:38 PM
At the risk of exposing my ignorance....why is China screwing over the Ughyurs to begin with? What is the perception of the threat that needs the action being taken?

The Uighurs are viewed as terrorists or at least terrorist supporters by Mainland Chinese. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Kunming_attack

QuoteA group of eight knife-wielding terrorists attacked passengers in the Kunming Railway Station in Kunming, Yunnan, China, on 1 March 2014.[2] The attackers pulled out long-bladed knives and stabbed and slashed passengers at random. The assailants killed 31 civilians and injured more than 140 people.

If you don't want to actually answer his question, why bother posting?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on April 24, 2021, 10:10:32 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 24, 2021, 09:29:03 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 24, 2021, 07:39:18 AM
Quote from: Berkut on April 23, 2021, 12:36:38 PM
At the risk of exposing my ignorance....why is China screwing over the Ughyurs to begin with? What is the perception of the threat that needs the action being taken?

The Uighurs are viewed as terrorists or at least terrorist supporters by Mainland Chinese. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Kunming_attack

QuoteA group of eight knife-wielding terrorists attacked passengers in the Kunming Railway Station in Kunming, Yunnan, China, on 1 March 2014.[2] The attackers pulled out long-bladed knives and stabbed and slashed passengers at random. The assailants killed 31 civilians and injured more than 140 people.

If you don't want to actually answer his question, why bother posting?

Mono lives in a country where the public believes the propaganda.  He buys the excuse so never looks for the cause.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 24, 2021, 10:24:41 AM
I like to rag on Mono for being a lackey of evil as much as the next guy, but he is right - the CCP and general Chinese attitude towards the Uighur is coloured by knife attacks and riots. If the question is "why are the Chinese screwing with the Uighur, what is the perception of threat" (and that was the question) part of the answer includes the Chinese reaction to riots and knife attacks.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 24, 2021, 10:31:49 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 24, 2021, 10:24:41 AM
I like to rag on Mono for being a lackey of evil as much as the next guy, but he is right - the CCP and general Chinese attitude towards the Uighur is coloured by knife attacks and riots. If the question is "why are the Chinese screwing with the Uighur, what is the perception of threat" (and that was the question) part of the answer includes the Chinese reaction to riots and knife attacks.

Except that it is misleading as this didn't start in 2014.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 24, 2021, 10:32:44 AM
Also, I'm not ragging on him. That implies at least a modicum of affection.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on April 24, 2021, 12:44:20 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 24, 2021, 10:24:41 AM
I like to rag on Mono for being a lackey of evil as much as the next guy, but he is right - the CCP and general Chinese attitude towards the Uighur is coloured by knife attacks and riots. If the question is "why are the Chinese screwing with the Uighur, what is the perception of threat" (and that was the question) part of the answer includes the Chinese reaction to riots and knife attacks.

Certainly part of the justification involves the two knife attacks and some riots, but the crackdown came before the knife attacks.  I believe that the reason China is screwing with the Uighurs is just old-fashioned racism.  Fucking with minorities is what the Chinese do.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on April 24, 2021, 05:01:35 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 24, 2021, 12:44:20 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 24, 2021, 10:24:41 AM
I like to rag on Mono for being a lackey of evil as much as the next guy, but he is right - the CCP and general Chinese attitude towards the Uighur is coloured by knife attacks and riots. If the question is "why are the Chinese screwing with the Uighur, what is the perception of threat" (and that was the question) part of the answer includes the Chinese reaction to riots and knife attacks.

Certainly part of the justification involves the two knife attacks and some riots, but the crackdown came before the knife attacks.  I believe that the reason China is screwing with the Uighurs is just old-fashioned racism.  Fucking with minorities is what the Chinese do.

I know nothing about this, I have to admit.

But this seems an unlikely explanation for why the government of China is screwing with them. I could see that might be why they are not liked, and a convenient scapegoat. But my understanding is the the Chinese government is expending significant resources and taking a lot of negative publicity over their genocidal actions. There has to be a reason beyond "They look funny and have a weird religion" for that. At least, I imagine there needs to be....are there economic factors at play?

Are they actual separatists?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 24, 2021, 06:28:38 PM
Quote from: Berkut on April 24, 2021, 05:01:35 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 24, 2021, 12:44:20 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 24, 2021, 10:24:41 AM
I like to rag on Mono for being a lackey of evil as much as the next guy, but he is right - the CCP and general Chinese attitude towards the Uighur is coloured by knife attacks and riots. If the question is "why are the Chinese screwing with the Uighur, what is the perception of threat" (and that was the question) part of the answer includes the Chinese reaction to riots and knife attacks.

Certainly part of the justification involves the two knife attacks and some riots, but the crackdown came before the knife attacks.  I believe that the reason China is screwing with the Uighurs is just old-fashioned racism.  Fucking with minorities is what the Chinese do.

I know nothing about this, I have to admit.

But this seems an unlikely explanation for why the government of China is screwing with them. I could see that might be why they are not liked, and a convenient scapegoat. But my understanding is the the Chinese government is expending significant resources and taking a lot of negative publicity over their genocidal actions. There has to be a reason beyond "They look funny and have a weird religion" for that. At least, I imagine there needs to be....are there economic factors at play?

Are they actual separatists?

Of course.  One of the problems with Uighurs and Tibetans is that religion is involved.  Han Chinese tend to be more materialistic.  They can be bought with material well-being.  Deliver economic growth, jobs, money, GDP, etc, and they'll be loyal to the regime.  Or at least, they'll be indifferent.

Not so with Uighurs and Tibetans.  Han Chinese generally don't have a very strong sense of religion even if they claim to be believers.  Uighurs and Tibetans place their religion above their material needs.  They cannot easily be placated by economic development. 

Hong Kong is similar, except you replace religion with democracy. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 24, 2021, 06:54:32 PM
Quote from: Berkut on April 24, 2021, 05:01:35 PM
I know nothing about this, I have to admit.

But this seems an unlikely explanation for why the government of China is screwing with them. I could see that might be why they are not liked, and a convenient scapegoat. But my understanding is the the Chinese government is expending significant resources and taking a lot of negative publicity over their genocidal actions. There has to be a reason beyond "They look funny and have a weird religion" for that. At least, I imagine there needs to be....are there economic factors at play?

Are they actual separatists?

There is definitely a separatist movement among the Uighurs. There is also an element who are unwilling to let their faith be suborned to the requirements of the CCP. There is also a significant segment who feel that the benefits of economical progress have primarily benefitted Han rather than the Uighur and - as I mentioned - a sense that the influx of Han people will make them a minority even in their own traditional areas and/ or lead to assimilation.

There are 55 official minorities in China (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_China). The Uighur have - in how they've responded to the above factors - probably been one of the ones more willing to push back against Han hegemony. I think this has led the CCP to push harder - they do not handle dissent well to put it mildly - which has got the Uighurs (or elements within the Uighur at least) to resist more and one thing has led to another.

IMO, while there are some economic elements I think the core is that the CCP are defending their notion of Chinese territorial and ideological integrity. You do not suggest that parts of what they think is China should not be China, and you do not have organizations and people you listen to more than the government (i.e. a strong faith that does not obviously toe the CCP line), and you do not question your place as a happy model minority in the wonderful People's Republic of China where you bring out your quaint ethnic costumes, charming dances, and interesting cuisine but otherwise aren't that different from the Han majority.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 24, 2021, 09:04:22 PM
I think it is interesting to compare say Uighurs and Tibetans.  They are both religiously minded minorities with a high degree of geographic concentration.  Why is there a difference in their treatment?

First and foremost, Uighurs are far more violent. They resort to terrorism against the Han civilian population in other parts of China.  Whereas Tibetans tend to self-immolate.  So there is far greater public support to manage the terrorism issue.

Secondly, Uighurs are Muslims, and there is some Muslim brotherhood issues at play.  The Uighurs are linked to a lot of international Muslim extremist groups, and I am sure that should be familiar to Americans.  Whereas this issue is absent in Tibet. 

Thirdly, a huge chunk of Han Chinese are Buddhists themselves.  Tibetans are sort of more open to outsiders as far as religion is concerned.  They are just much more accommodating.  Whereas the "us vs them" religious dynamic is much stronger in Xinjiang.  Islam has a public perception problem in China, a lot more so than Buddhism.  Hardly any Han Chinese are Muslims. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 24, 2021, 09:07:59 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 24, 2021, 09:04:22 PM
First and foremost, Uighurs are far more violent. They resort to terrorism against the Han civilian population in other parts of China.  Whereas Tibetans tend to self-immolate.  So there is far greater public support to manage the terrorism issue.

Aren't you overstating the case?  I can think one uncoordinated knife attack in Shanghai.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 24, 2021, 09:17:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 24, 2021, 09:07:59 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on April 24, 2021, 09:04:22 PM
First and foremost, Uighurs are far more violent. They resort to terrorism against the Han civilian population in other parts of China.  Whereas Tibetans tend to self-immolate.  So there is far greater public support to manage the terrorism issue.

Aren't you overstating the case?  I can think one uncoordinated knife attack in Shanghai.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2013_Bachu_unrest
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2013_Shanshan_riots
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Kunming_attack
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2014_%C3%9Cr%C3%BCmqi_attack
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2014_%C3%9Cr%C3%BCmqi_attack
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianjin_Airlines_Flight_7554
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Juma_Tayir
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Tiananmen_Square_attack
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 24, 2021, 09:24:57 PM
Fair enough.

Though in passing I will say those Wiki entries give off a distinct junior commissar writing style vibe.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on April 25, 2021, 01:48:33 AM
Guys, you are starting to make my stomach turn.

I am quite certain the Uighurs are being oppressed for the same reason the Soviet regimes oppressed their own peoples, why Stalin relocated the Crimean Tatars to Asia, the Albanians were cleansed in Kosovo or the Armenians were genocided in Turkey: they were deemed insufficiently docile, and too reluctant in taking it on the chin from the dominating/foreign culture/ethnicity acting like a dominating culture/ethnicity.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 25, 2021, 03:46:18 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 25, 2021, 01:48:33 AM
Guys, you are starting to make my stomach turn.

I am quite certain the Uighurs are being oppressed for the same reason the Soviet regimes oppressed their own peoples, why Stalin relocated the Crimean Tatars to Asia, the Albanians were cleansed in Kosovo or the Armenians were genocided in Turkey: they were deemed insufficiently docile, and too reluctant in taking it on the chin from the dominating/foreign culture/ethnicity acting like a dominating culture/ethnicity.

and that's why the right to self-determinations matters for all nations.

----------

anyways: both Serpentza and laowhy86 on youtube are pretty interesting when it comes to China. Both lived there for quite a while before having to leave (due to the CCP not being able to take any for of criticism, iirc)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 25, 2021, 03:47:36 AM
Must be a crisis for you, Ivan. Separatism and Islam.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 25, 2021, 04:05:57 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 25, 2021, 03:46:18 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 25, 2021, 01:48:33 AM
Guys, you are starting to make my stomach turn.

I am quite certain the Uighurs are being oppressed for the same reason the Soviet regimes oppressed their own peoples, why Stalin relocated the Crimean Tatars to Asia, the Albanians were cleansed in Kosovo or the Armenians were genocided in Turkey: they were deemed insufficiently docile, and too reluctant in taking it on the chin from the dominating/foreign culture/ethnicity acting like a dominating culture/ethnicity.

and that's why the right to self-determinations matters for all nations.

----------

anyways: both Serpentza and laowhy86 on youtube are pretty interesting when it comes to China. Both lived there for quite a while before having to leave (due to the CCP not being able to take any for of criticism, iirc)

I used to watch their videos a lot, particularly serpentza (laowhy is too unlikeable). I like their motorbike journeys ones.
Though lately he has kind of flown off the deep end. You can see why with the crap he has been through. But he has dropped any pretense of objectivity and is just doing yet more of the China uncensored (also once OK) style everything about China is evil stuff.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 25, 2021, 08:41:46 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 25, 2021, 03:47:36 AM
Must be a crisis for you, Ivan. Separatism and Islam.

stop projecting your issues on me, Garbon.
It's not because the Uyghurs are following a reprehensible ideology that they, as a nation, don't have any rights on their own country. After all, the Germans stopped being nazis and at some point the Chinese will liberate themselves from the CCP too.
Clearly the crisis is all on your side.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on April 25, 2021, 05:38:57 PM
I'm rubber, you're glue?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 26, 2021, 01:42:44 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 25, 2021, 03:46:18 AM
and that's why the right to self-determinations matters for all nations.

I would say human rights matters. Self-determination is exactly the justification for these kinds of atrocities. Got to get the right sorts of people on that land so it can "self determine" the correct fashion.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 26, 2021, 02:33:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 26, 2021, 01:42:44 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 25, 2021, 03:46:18 AM
and that's why the right to self-determinations matters for all nations.

I would say human rights matters. Self-determination is exactly the justification for these kinds of atrocities. Got to get the right sorts of people on that land so it can "self determine" the correct fashion.

You're forgetting that people are not the same and that people auto-congretate into similar groups (tribes or nations once the scale is sufficient).
In other words: even if all the world was honkey-dory and everyone one had full human rights you'd still end up with differences on how to govern society that transcend the purely ideological but are based on the shared cultural and historical experiences of the group. A Frenchman would still not be a German, would still not be an Egyptian, would still not be an American or whatever... all of these groups run their societies differently and would still do so if no rights were trampeled on.
Self-determination would still be required, unless you want to force everyone into to same straightjacket.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 26, 2021, 04:35:19 PM
In happier Chinese news.... This story was simply bizzare.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/russian-man-trapped-on-chinese-reality-tv-show-finally-voted-out

China WTF.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on April 26, 2021, 08:03:07 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 26, 2021, 04:35:19 PM
In happier Chinese news.... This story was simply bizzare.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/russian-man-trapped-on-chinese-reality-tv-show-finally-voted-out

China WTF.

A contract is a contract.  Don't like the contractual obligations?  Don't sign the contract in the first place :contract:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 02, 2021, 10:42:50 AM
So apparently Xi's CCP has just announced that the Cultural Revolution was a positive evolution in Chinese history.

Just fucking stellar.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 05, 2021, 12:31:10 PM
Worth noting the EU has now suspended work on trying to ratify the EU-China investment deal. Not really sure it was worth rushing through at the end of last year :mellow:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on May 05, 2021, 12:53:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 02, 2021, 10:42:50 AM
So apparently Xi's CCP has just announced that the Cultural Revolution was a positive evolution in Chinese history.

Just fucking stellar.

Wow.  The ministry of truth must be in overdrive working on all the now required edits to the official record.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 05, 2021, 01:30:06 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 05, 2021, 12:53:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 02, 2021, 10:42:50 AM
So apparently Xi's CCP has just announced that the Cultural Revolution was a positive evolution in Chinese history.

Just fucking stellar.

Wow.  The ministry of truth must be in overdrive working on all the now required edits to the official record.

More interesting considering his family history (if his wiki entry is to be believed) with the Cultural Revolution. 

But that may well be my bourgeoisie, Westerner perspective.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 05, 2021, 09:49:49 PM
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/272/677/ee8.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on May 06, 2021, 01:07:52 AM
I once talked about Mao with a Chinese man, he was born perhaps in the 60's. He was very interested in history and had travelled around the world and I asked him how they view Mao nowadays. He said that for his parents and their generation Mao was a hero, but for him, and his generation Deng was the great hero. Deng opened up and stabilized Chinese politics and made China the powerhouse it is today.

Sad to hear that Xi is taking a big dump on all that, but I guess action and re-action. In a few years the purges will start and when Xi dies in a few decades China will probably go to shit if there's no new Deng.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 06, 2021, 04:26:31 AM
Quote from: Jacob on May 02, 2021, 10:42:50 AM
So apparently Xi's CCP has just announced that the Cultural Revolution was a positive evolution in Chinese history.

Just fucking stellar.

Have they stopped the push to bring back Chinese culture too? Or just trying to square two different things?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 06, 2021, 05:50:15 AM
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hungary-blocks-eu-statement-criticising-china-over-hong-kong-diplomats-say-2021-04-16/

QuoteHungary blocks EU statement criticising China over Hong Kong, diplomats say

Hungary has blocked a European Union statement criticising China's new security law in Hong Kong, two diplomats said, in a move likely to undermine efforts to confront Beijing's curbing of freedoms in the former British colony.

The EU, which aims to support Britain and the United States in upholding human rights in Hong Kong, was due to make its statement on Monday at a meeting of EU foreign ministers, but failed to win the necessary agreement from all 27 EU states.

"Hungary's argument was that the EU already has too many issues with China," a senior EU diplomat told Reuters. A second senior diplomat confirmed the blockage and Hungary's position. An EU official said the statement had been withdrawn from the EU's approval process.

China and the EU imposed tit-for-tat sanctions over Western accusations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang on March 22.

Hungarian diplomats in Brussels were not immediately available for comment. Budapest reluctantly supported the EU sanctions last month, calling them "pointless", and hosted China's defence minister for an official visit days after the EU sanctions decision.

Hungary is a large recipient of Chinese investment. In the past both Hungary and Greece, where China's COSCO Shipping has a majority stake in Greece's largest port, have blocked EU statements on China.

Beijing's top representative in Hong Kong this week warned foreign powers that they would be taught a lesson if they tried to interfere in China's management of the global financial hub, as tensions escalated between China and Western governments over the city.

The West says the new Hong Kong security law breaks a promise to maintain a high degree of autonomy for the city since its 1997 return to Chinese rule. China's supporters say the law has restored order following mass anti-government and anti-China protests in 2019.

The impasse is the latest blow to the EU's credentials as a defender of human rights, one of the diplomats said, and raises questions about the economically powerful EU's "soft power" that relies on inspiring countries to follow its example by outlawing the death penalty and upholding press freedoms.

It also underscores the EU's challenge in balancing business ties with China, its second-largest trade partner, and its ability to speak out against Chinese government crackdowns in Hong Kong, on human rights lawyers since 2015 and on Muslim Uighurs in northwestern China.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on May 06, 2021, 01:16:44 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 26, 2021, 01:42:44 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 25, 2021, 03:46:18 AM
and that's why the right to self-determinations matters for all nations.

I would say human rights matters. Self-determination is exactly the justification for these kinds of atrocities. Got to get the right sorts of people on that land so it can "self determine" the correct fashion.
That's why the Chinese are transferring Uighurs to other parts of China and settling Hans in the province, to make sure that point is moot in the times that come.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 06, 2021, 01:17:58 PM
Quote from: viper37 on May 06, 2021, 01:16:44 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 26, 2021, 01:42:44 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 25, 2021, 03:46:18 AM
and that's why the right to self-determinations matters for all nations.

I would say human rights matters. Self-determination is exactly the justification for these kinds of atrocities. Got to get the right sorts of people on that land so it can "self determine" the correct fashion.
That's why the Chinese are transferring Uighurs to other parts of China and settling Hans in the province, to make sure that point is moot in the times that come.


Exactly. Old Soviet trick.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 06, 2021, 02:05:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 06, 2021, 01:17:58 PM
Quote from: viper37 on May 06, 2021, 01:16:44 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 26, 2021, 01:42:44 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 25, 2021, 03:46:18 AM
and that's why the right to self-determinations matters for all nations.

I would say human rights matters. Self-determination is exactly the justification for these kinds of atrocities. Got to get the right sorts of people on that land so it can "self determine" the correct fashion.
That's why the Chinese are transferring Uighurs to other parts of China and settling Hans in the province, to make sure that point is moot in the times that come.


Exactly. Old Soviet trick.
which is of course the exact opposite of self-determination. But you know that of course.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 06, 2021, 09:25:07 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 06, 2021, 02:05:12 PM
which is of course the exact opposite of self-determination. But you know that of course.

What I know is what I said. Individual rights matter. Once you start getting into collective rights based on identity politics all kinds of shenanigans result. You might argue they are not doing identity politics right but unfortunately the logic of this political principal leads to things like this.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 07, 2021, 05:02:03 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 02, 2021, 10:42:50 AM
So apparently Xi's CCP has just announced that the Cultural Revolution was a positive evolution in Chinese history.

Just fucking stellar.
So I've been reading Julia Lovell's really good Maoism: A Global History - and it makes me slightly wonder if this is slightly about foreign policy?

She mentioned in one section that the "China Dream" talks about how China has a tradition of cherishing peace and harmony and that China never seeks to pillage others or establish spheres of influence (unlike the West). The official position when researching another book was basically that China was more or less totally isolated and focusing on rebuilding from 1949-76. Obviously in that time - especially in the 60s - Chinese foreign policy was actually hyperactive. They were competing with the Soviets for leadership of the world revolution, they were supporting revolutionary groups across but especially Africa (by arms or cash or training or just statements). China wasn't the only one but she notes it may have been the period of peak Chinese soft power in the modern era (think of all those kids in Europe declaring themselves Maoist) - but it's disowned because it doesn't fit with the Chinese Dream and it's associated with the Cultural Revolution.

Now obviously I don't think they're about to start funding revolutionaries around the world - just like they're not about to launch a new Cultural Revolution. But I wonder if part of what's intended by the leadership with this shift is China's considering challenging global leadership again and is possibly slightly shifting from just cherishing peace and harmony? :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 07, 2021, 06:22:15 PM
Shows complete ignorance of broader Chinese history too. Chinese history is mega expansionist. Just look at the old dynasties compared to today.
It's sad to think of all the lost people groups trampled beneath generic hanisation.

The debt trap stuff they're doing is definitely aimed at building an empire. It annoys me to no end when you see people pull the whole "unlike the nasty Europeans China doesn't make an empire it just invests". When you just know if doing what China is doing today was an option with pliable local rulers subscribing to global economic rules  and there was no threat of other powers competing, then the victorian age European empires would have much rather gone this way.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 07, 2021, 08:10:09 PM
China is absolutely an imperialist power. It was in the past, and it is today. It had a period where it was victimized by other imperial powers, but it's come back as imperialist as ever.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on May 08, 2021, 04:11:54 AM
To be fair, the present Chinese borders roughly mirror the borders of the Qing dynasty, which was a Manchu dynasty, not Han Chinese.  The Qing dynasty was closely allied with the Mongols as well.  So a lot of the recent imperialist expansion was done by the Manchus and Mongols.  If you look at the borders of say Ming dynasty, it was a lots smaller than the Qings. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 08, 2021, 10:52:49 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/RyoZS8M.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 08, 2021, 11:09:36 AM
If the videos that occasionally pop up into my Youtube feed are anything to analyze by...it seems like Sky News Australia is trying to out-do William Randolph Hearst.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Habbaku on May 08, 2021, 11:23:49 AM
Quote from: Jacob on May 08, 2021, 10:52:49 AM
India-China Map

:hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on May 08, 2021, 04:35:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 06, 2021, 01:17:58 PM
Exactly. Old Soviet trick.
that's why people should seperate before that happens :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 09, 2021, 01:14:51 AM
Quote from: viper37 on May 08, 2021, 04:35:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 06, 2021, 01:17:58 PM
Exactly. Old Soviet trick.
that's why people should seperate before that happens :P


I believe Xinjiang has tried to do that multiple times in the past,
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 20, 2021, 03:46:01 PM
Looks like the European pariliament is pushing off the ratification of the current EU-China trade deal. The reason is that China has levied sanctions against a number of EU parliamentarians who are involved with China, in retaliation for the EU levying sanctions against four Chinese officials behind the camps in Xinjiant.

It's been also noted how China was dragging their feet on the deal for seven years and then the moment Biden was elected they decided to push it forward.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 25, 2021, 04:14:55 AM
Interesting interview from New Zealand's foreign minister - as noted there's been a lot of areas where there's a bit of a question about New Zealand's slightly more reticent approach on China:
Quote'A matter of time': New Zealand's foreign minister warns China 'storm' could be coming
In an interview with the Guardian, Nanaia Mahuta says exporters must diversify to protect themselves from a potential cooling of ties with Beijing
Tess McClure in Wellington
@tessairini
Mon 24 May 2021 21.00 BST

New Zealand could find itself at the heart of a "storm" of anger from China, foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta has warned, saying exporters needed to diversify to ensure they could survive deteriorating relations with Beijing.

Mahuta's comments come as the New Zealand government faces increasing pressure to take a firmer stance on human rights violations and crackdowns by China, putting the spotlight on the potential repercussions for countries who provoke Beijing's ire.

Neighbouring Australia is in a deepening trade war with China, which Mahuta likened to being at the centre of a storm – one which could easily engulf New Zealand.

"We cannot ignore, obviously, what's happening in Australia with their relationship with China. And if they are close to an eye of the storm or in the eye of the storm, we've got to legitimately ask ourselves – it may only be a matter of time before the storm gets closer to us," she told the Guardian.


It was one of the minister's more frank discussions of the vulnerability of New Zealand's trade dependency on China – and a clear directive to local exporters that they should be seeking to redistribute some of those eggs to baskets elsewhere.

"The signal I'm sending to exporters is that they need to think about diversification in this context – Covid-19, broadening relationships across our region, and the buffering aspects of if something significant happened with China. Would they be able to withstand the impact?" she asked. China accounts for more than $33bn of New Zealand's total trade, and nearly 30% of exports.

New Zealand is attempting to walk a difficult tightrope with China: maintaining a strong trade relationship, while still carving out space to criticise violations of human rights or international law. Over the past year, that position has become increasingly difficult to maintain.

The country is under pressure to take a stronger moral stance on human rights issues in and around China. Human rights groups have described mass human rights abuses in Xinjiang, including the incarceration of more than a million people in internment and re-education camps, forced labour, mass sterilisation of women, and restrictions on religion, culture and language, as cultural genocide.

The crackdown on pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong is ongoing: an operation rounding up of dozens of pro-democracy politicians and activists in March means many key voices of dissent are now in custody or prison. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said New Zealand's differences with China were becoming "harder to reconcile".

New Zealand has issued statements expressing "grave concerns" about China's actions in both Xinjiang and Hong Kong, but those statements have tended to be softer than those of its longstanding allies in the Five Eyes network, Britain, the US, Canada and Australia.

New Zealand, along with Australia, welcomed coordinated sanctions announced by the UK, US, the EU and Canada over Uyghur abuses, but did not institute sanctions of their own. In May, New Zealand shied away from using the word "genocide" in a motion on Xinjiang debated and unanimously adopted by parliament – opting instead to use more general, watered-down language of "human rights abuses". Mahuta says New Zealand "didn't go to the degree of naming it is genocide because of the international legal threshold around that".


At the time, trade minister Damien O'Connor said that using the language of genocide would hurt New Zealand's trade relationship. "Clearly the Chinese government wouldn't like something like that ... I have no doubt it would have some impact [on trade]. That's hardly rocket science," O'Connor said.

The opposition leader, Judith Collins, also said New Zealand's trade relationship with China was the "elephant in the room" in the discussion. "At the moment, clearly we are [beholden to China] in terms of trade," she told Stuff.

Mahuta has previously come under fire for comments that New Zealand was "uncomfortable with expanding the remit of the Five Eyes," a remark that some saw as a shift away from traditional allies. In China, state-run media heralded the comments as "New Zealand secure[ing] its interests by distancing from US-led clique".

"In sharp contrast with Australia, which tied itself to the US' chariot, New Zealand has maintained a relatively independent approach on foreign policies, paving the way for the country to pursue policies that benefit its own economy," the Global Times wrote.


"To be clear, New Zealand values the Five Eyes relationship," Mahuta told the Guardian. "It's a security and intelligence framework from which we can work with trusted allies on those specific issues. But the human rights community is much broader than that. ... We don't need the Five Eyes to articulate where we stand on human rights issues."

Australia provides a vision of what collapse in that trade relationship could look like. The diplomatic rift escalated when Australia called for an investigation into the origins of Covid-19 in China. It has only intensified since.

China has retaliated with tariffs, import restrictions and a warning to its citizens not to travel to Australia. Analysis last year found China's declared and undeclared sanctions cost Australia around AU$47.7bn (£26.5bn) last year. So far, the impact of that trade war has been buffered by China's continued reliance on Australian iron ore. But China has been exploring how to shift its sourcing to mines in Brazil and Guinea – if they're successful, Australia could be hit harder.

New Zealand does not have an equivalent resource monopoly in its China trade relationship. "Everything that you can get from New Zealand, you can get elsewhere," international law professor Alexander Gillespie said.


"China will know our vulnerability in this area. And I think the way that we're positioning ourselves with our statements shows that we're conscious of that vulnerability as well," he said.
China says Five Eyes alliance will be 'poked and blinded' over Hong Kong stance

If it came, trade retaliation from China could hit New Zealand across multiple industries. Near the end of 2020, the value of exports to China alone surpassed the value of New Zealand's next four largest trading partners – Australia, the US, UK, and Japan – combined.


Trade to China accounts for 28% of New Zealand's overall exports, including a quarter of dairy exports, more than 60% of forestry products and around 50% of meat. The country is New Zealand's second-largest source of tourism cash, behind only Australia – before Covid-19, Chinese tourists were spending about $1.7bn in New Zealand each year. International education is a $5bn industry for New Zealand, and Chinese students make up about 47% of international students at New Zealand universities.

"Right now, China will be delighted with us because they will see us as the weak link in the Five Eyes," Gillespie said. "For a country like New Zealand to steer away from that words like genocide when the other countries use it, symbolically, it's important."

Asked about the differences between New Zealand and Australia's approaches to China, Mahuta said she did not "want to be drawn into commenting on the approach of another country in its bilateral relationship". But she did say that New Zealand's connection with China had changed, maturing over time.

"The relationship with China has moved beyond the relationship of firsts – we were the first to achieve a free trade agreement with China – to a maturing relationship ... where we can be respectful, consistent and predictable on the issues that are important to us, but also on the issues that separate and differentiate our view of the world from China."

Mahuta was careful to frame her message to exporters as part of a wider broadening of New Zealand's connections across the Asia-Pacific. "We've said that it's 'China, and,' not 'China, or'," she said.

New Zealand would need to strengthen its relationships across the region in the coming years, she said. "Trade is – while it is important, so is regional peace and stability."

It is incredibly difficult for New Zealand and Australia - but I think this does indicate why it's important to avoid becoming so economically tied to China. As it is I feel like there may be work the EU and other countries like Canada, UK and US can do to help Australia and New Zealand diversify their trade relations/exports.

I know there was the campaign to buy Aussie wine - which is an idea but probably not really enough :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 25, 2021, 04:19:14 AM
Whatever happened to those plans for ultra high tech modern clipper cargo ships?
That would help solve the major qualm I have in trading with Australia and NZ; you're paying to transport something right around the world that you can just as easy get from a country or two over.


Though nit pick - love that lady, so like a Sci fi character rather than someone you expect to see in real life. But I don't think she knows what the eye of the storm is.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 25, 2021, 09:23:42 AM
Yeah, China has made it clear that they can't be relied upon. It's prudent for New Zealand and New Zealanders to prepare for the day when China decides to dick them around.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 01:04:24 AM
This strikes me as something some people may be interested in - translation of a new novel by a leading Xinjiang writer who has been disappeared:
https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-backstreets/9780231202916?fbclid=IwAR3bp-GFTwcz8GV5d_elaschV2ngAZB36q5xl1WT5x3K81Sq9I1ZBMAlja8
QuoteThe Backstreets
A Novel from Xinjiang
Perhat Tursun. Translated by Darren Byler and Anonymous

Columbia University Press

The Backstreets is an astonishing novel by a preeminent contemporary Uyghur author who was disappeared by the Chinese state. It follows an unnamed Uyghur man who comes to the impenetrable Chinese capital of Xinjiang after finding a temporary job in a government office. Seeking to escape the pain and poverty of the countryside, he finds only cold stares and rejection. He wanders the streets, accompanied by the bitter fog of winter pollution, reciting a monologue of numbers and odors, lust and loathing, memories and madness.

Perhat Tursun's novel is a work of untrammeled literary creativity. His evocative prose recalls a vast array of canonical world writers—contemporary Chinese authors such as Mo Yan; the modernist images and rhythms of Camus, Dostoevsky, and Kafka; the serious yet absurdist dissection of the logic of racism in Ellison's Invisible Man—while drawing deeply on Uyghur literary traditions and Sufi poetics and combining all these disparate influences into a style that is distinctly Tursun's own. The Backstreets is a stark fable about urban isolation and social violence, dehumanization and the racialization of ethnicity. Yet its protagonist's vivid recollections of maternal tenderness and first love reveal how memory and imagination offer profound forms of resilience. A translator's introduction situates the novel in the political atmosphere that led to the disappearance of both the author and his work.

About the Author

Perhat Tursun is a leading Uyghur writer, poet, and social critic from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. He has published many short stories and poems as well as three novels, including the controversial 1999 novel The Art of Suicide, decried as anti-Islamic. In 2018, he was detained by the Chinese authorities and was reportedly given a sixteen-year prison sentence.

Darren Byler is assistant professor of international studies at Simon Fraser University and author of In the Camps: China's High-Tech Penal Colony (2021). His anonymous cotranslator, who disappeared in 2017, is presumed to be in the reeducation camp system in northwest China.

Edit: Oh so this is weird. Perhat Tursun is, for some reason, not listed as the author on Amazon. You need to search for Darren Byler the translator :hmm: Won't be published until next spring but it seems important and, likely, enlightening.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 26, 2021, 02:22:25 AM
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/senior-china-diplomat-says-eu-politicising-trade-not-acceptable-2021-05-25/

QuoteSenior China diplomat says EU politicising of trade 'not acceptable'

Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi said on Tuesday that attempts by some in the EU to politicise trade issues are "not acceptable and will lead nowhere," and that Beijing had been shocked when Brussels placed sanctions on Chinese officials.

Wang, who is also foreign minister, made the remarks less than a week after the EU halted ratification of an investment pact with China until Beijing lifts its own sanctions on EU politicians. read more

China's retaliatory sanctions came after Brussels in March blacklisted Chinese officials over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang, which Beijing denies. read more

The investment pact was not a "one-sided favour" and stoking political confrontation and economic decoupling does not serve the EU's interests, Wang said at a talk hosted by the Munich Security Conference.

China remains ready to expand cooperation with Europe, based on mutual respect, he added.

"It has never come to our mind that the EU will put sanctions on us," Wang said, questioning how a strategic partner could take such action.

The sanctions reminded Chinese people "of the days when they were bullied by European imperialists," Wang said.

"And as the Chinese government, we have our sovereignty to uphold. We have our national dignity to uphold ... We have to push back falsehoods and disinformation," he added, explaining why China hit back.

"China is a trustworthy partner of all countries, not a systemic rival locked in confrontation," Wang said.


:lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 02:24:51 AM
:lol:
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/1H-PS_pr-t0/hqdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 08:46:59 AM
Quote from: Jacob on May 25, 2021, 09:23:42 AM
Yeah, China has made it clear that they can't be relied upon. It's prudent for New Zealand and New Zealanders to prepare for the day when China decides to dick them around.
FT actually had an interesting story on Australia's surprise adaptability in response to Chinese pressure. An example:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2TKziFXEAAiYQf?format=png&name=small)

I wonder if the fear for democratic countries is maybe worse than the actual impact that you'd expect :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 11:06:02 AM
A fine example of the flaw in libertarian approaches to markets.

There is more to be considered then simple profits and losses.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 11:35:00 AM
I can't remember who it was but it reminds me of the phrase someone used that to an extent doing business in China involves a "values tariff". It doesn't mean it's wrong but there is a cost away from the financials - see also John Cena/Hollywood/the NBA/Arsenal etc.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 12:04:30 PM
Quote from: Syt on May 26, 2021, 02:22:25 AM
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/senior-china-diplomat-says-eu-politicising-trade-not-acceptable-2021-05-25/

QuoteSenior China diplomat says EU politicising of trade 'not acceptable'

...

"China is a trustworthy partner of all countries, not a systemic rival locked in confrontation," Wang said.


Too fucking late. There was a period in time where China could've become a trustworthy partner of all countries, but at this point they've cemented their status as a systemic rival locked in confrontation.

Yours sincerely,

Xiacob
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 12:06:47 PM
China seems to be working very hard to burn all the goodwill they built up after 1989.

I don't get it. They were being very successful playing nice but then looked over at Russia and decided to be like them instead for some reason. The Chinese, in a very un-Mono way, are letting politics get in the way of money.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 26, 2021, 12:07:17 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 12:04:30 PM
Too fucking late. There was a period in time where China could've become a trustworthy partner of all countries, but at this point they've cemented their status as a systemic rival locked in confrontation.

Yours sincerely,

Xiacob

If CdM was still with us he would say, "I TOLD YOU SO" wrapped in an amusing and weirdly positive insult.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 12:07:56 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 08:46:59 AM
I wonder if the fear for democratic countries is maybe worse than the actual impact that you'd expect :hmm:

That's encouraging. It'd be great if it holds across the board.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 12:07:59 PM
Like Jesus and Arthur someday CdM will return.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 12:12:21 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 12:06:47 PM
China seems to be working very hard to burn all the goodwill they built up after 1989.

I don't get it. They were being very successful playing nice but then looked over at Russia and decided to be like them instead for some reason.
Power. They are now clearly a rising power and want to assert their position and be treated like one and the unipolar moment of the 90s is on a far less sure footing.

I think there is something to the Thucydides trap/Wilhelmine Reich v Edwardian Britain analysis.

As a country, what is the point of accruing economic influence and power if it is not used to advance your political agenda?

I don't think the blame goes to China for doing what makes sense and every other country does, but perhaps to the West for thinking you can de-couple economics and trade from politics. That either Chinese politics and interests would somehow align to the West (Step 1 - build up massive trading dependencies to China; Step 2 - ????; Step 3 - Chinese democracy) or that China, uniquely in the world and in history, would not use its economic leverage to advance its political interests.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 12:15:38 PM
What worries me is that they always include references to past humiliations/colonialism (even if true and justifiable) in their rhetoric.  Nations that do that, especially as a rising power, sooner or later seem to end up in a major war. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 12:20:14 PM
Yeah it does make one a bit nervous. China doesn't have any allies with interests in the Balkans though, so that's good.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 12:22:30 PM
I disagree, Sheilbh - I think you're seeing China and China's interest too monolithically. China had a numer of options available to it on key issues - nationalist populism, how to get what you want from your neighbours, how to manage internal friction, how to approach diaspora Chinese (incl. Hong Kong and Taiwan, but elsewhere as well), international collaboration etc. All could be blended in different proportions, prioritized differently, and be approached more or less collaboratively for example.

Xi Jinping and his clique has taken a very specific and muscular approach, and is very nakedly trying to punish anyone who annoy them in a way that IMO is ultimately beyond their reach. A different clique could (would) have taken a different approach and blended the various policy objectives and methods in a different way.

China's path and actions are no more purely determined by it's situation than the UK's or the US'. Sure there are broad realities that shape incentives and possible actions, but individual decisions still matter. And Xi's China has really been shitting the bed.

Incidentally, a prevailing theory among a number of anti-CCP diaspora Chinese is that the H&M debacle was deliberately staged by anti-Xi factions to hurt Xi, as the  EU response very clearly has. Xi put a lot of stock in the EU agreement when he was sparring with Trump over trade.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 12:27:56 PM
IMO, Xi and his clique have very much done a "drop the mask and proclaim WE ARE POWERFUL, RESPECT US OR SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES" move for China in a two-penny villain style. Again IMO, even if that was inevitable for China (which I don't think it was), they pulled it a few decades too early for it to be successful.

The only way it makes sense as a clever move is, IMO, if they think they need to lean hard into nationalist populism and pushing potential partners around to head off internal threats and instability from economic downturns in the next few decades. But personally I think it's more down to the personal failings of Xi and his closest cronies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on May 26, 2021, 12:28:47 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/

There's also the argument that China is increasingly belligerent because, like Russia, it is a deeply unpopular government that has to rely on increasing repression at home.  It has an aging, even declining, population https://www.ft.com/content/008ea78a-8bc1-4954-b283-700608d3dc6c which will increasing hurt economic growth as time goes on.

Picking fights with foreigners is a well-known strategy to get people to "rally around the flag" all over the world.

I'm not sure if that's a better or worse perspective than "China is aggressive because it is strong", but it is one to keep in mind.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 12:35:58 PM
I agree on Xi. Xi is taking that in a particular direction which is far more aggressive than others probably would - although wasn't his main competition Bo and who knows what his approach would have been? Genuine question - is there any stuff on what Bo's China might look like?

But I think the broad confrontational approach is inevitable because the US isn't going to share or cede global leadership (and by not re-electing Trump shows they don't yet want to just relinquish it) and China is not going to subordinate itself to a still US-dominated Western rules-based order and is powerful enough that it doesn't have to. I think that dynamic will lead to confrontation even if the details and the speed and the aggression around it are set by Xi.

I don't think the outcome is determined but I think it is likely to take skilful handling by leaders of both sides to avoid some conflict - even if it is indirect (but bloody) like the Cold War. Given the last few years I'm not convinced either side has that leadership which is what worries me most.

I think something similar with the UK and the EU. Because they are based on fundamentally different ideological bases and bets on what is best-placed to handle the future (nimble nation state v powerful coalition) they will always be in competition because the success or failure of one is the vindication or not of the other. The details and tone may change, but I think that's likely to be the dynamic.

Edit: And the other side is there may be something to BB's point around Xi adopting this to get a "rally round the flag" but I slightly wonder if we underestimate the power of Chinese public opinion. I've seen articles for years about the Chinese state encouraging nationalism - stuff that way pre-dates Xi - and whether the Chinese state could actually control it. They're still stoking it.

China's obviously a million miles from democratic but it is aware of and I think quite responsive to public attitudes/opinion (possibly more than democracies because it's based on constant monitoring rather than a vote every four years). There's a bit of me that wonders if part of this is actually a consequence of the years when China encouraged nationalism it is now finding it difficult to manage or de-escalate situations because of public opinion - or public opinion on monitored social media platforms.

Again no idea but I wonder if the CCP is far more afraid of public unrest in the event of a perceived "humiliation" rather than say a desire for democracy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 12:38:39 PM
And alienating the EU is a good way to do that? It seems to me if you were trying to undermine the US you would court the other big countries. Do they figure you can achieve USA type hegemony with just Russia and a few other malcontents?

That doesn't make much sense to me Sheilbh. The Chinese aren't stupid so that cannot be their motivation.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 12:43:22 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 12:38:39 PM
And alienating the EU is a good way to do that? It seems to me if you were trying to undermine the US you would court the other big countries. Do they figure you can achieve USA type hegemony with just Russia and a few other malcontents?

That doesn't make much sense to me Sheilbh. The Chinese aren't stupid so that cannot be their motivation.
No - I think they've clearly fucked up.

But that's why I think China is behaving differently than it did in the 90s. It doesn't mean I think they're doing it well or this is their sole path. It's because they are significantly more powerful than they were in 1989 and they aspire to more power.

Edit: And in terms of motivation I think they have overestimated their strength. In relation to the EU in particular I think the rush by the EU to agree the deal last year gave the impression to China that the EU was basically very weak and willing to agree almost anything to do a deal, which meant China's position was quite strong.

I think they have probably been surprised in Beijing that imposing sanctions on European parliamentarians and think tanks has resulted in issues with their deal. I think they probably miscalculated the politics in Europe, but not unreasonably given the rush at the end of last year to agree the deal in principle.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 12:50:07 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 26, 2021, 12:28:47 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/

There's also the argument that China is increasingly belligerent because, like Russia, it is a deeply unpopular government that has to rely on increasing repression at home.  It has an aging, even declining, population https://www.ft.com/content/008ea78a-8bc1-4954-b283-700608d3dc6c which will increasing hurt economic growth as time goes on.

Picking fights with foreigners is a well-known strategy to get people to "rally around the flag" all over the world.

I'm not sure if that's a better or worse perspective than "China is aggressive because it is strong", but it is one to keep in mind.

I think there's a lot of truth to this.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 01:06:49 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 12:35:58 PM
I agree on Xi. Xi is taking that in a particular direction which is far more aggressive than others probably would - although wasn't his main competition Bo and who knows what his approach would have been? Genuine question - is there any stuff on what Bo's China might look like?

It's hard to say. At the time of the showdown, Bo was the one who was leaning into the nationalism and harking back to the Cultural Revolution as a good thing and so on. But whether he would've gone harder that way, or whether he'd be more heavy on the trappings but more considered with the policy is beyond me.

QuoteBut I think the broad confrontational approach is inevitable because the US isn't going to share or cede global leadership (and by not re-electing Trump shows they don't yet want to just relinquish it) and China is not going to subordinate itself to a still US-dominated Western rules-based order and is powerful enough that it doesn't have to. I think that dynamic will lead to confrontation even if the details and the speed and the aggression around it are set by Xi.

Yeah tension and conflict is inevitable, I agree. The way it is expressed and handled is the real issue. Personally, I think a more slowly-slowly approach would've served China better, but perhaps that entailed other risks from the regime perspective (internal challenges, popular dissatisfaction once the economic growth slowed).

QuoteI don't think the outcome is determined but I think it is likely to take skilful handling by leaders of both sides to avoid some conflict - even if it is indirect (but bloody) like the Cold War. Given the last few years I'm not convinced either side has that leadership which is what worries me most.

Concur.

QuoteI think something similar with the UK and the EU. Because they are based on fundamentally different ideological bases and bets on what is best-placed to handle the future (nimble nation state v powerful coalition) they will always be in competition because the success or failure of one is the vindication or not of the other. The details and tone may change, but I think that's likely to be the dynamic.

Heh, that's a pretty UK centric perspective. I don't think the EU needs to see itself in competition with the UK much more than it's in competition with Canada. Conversely, the UK is going to perpetually define itself in terms of its relation to the EU, and there it has very much cast itself as being in competition. But from my perspective it'll likely be pretty one-sided (much like how Canada often defines itself relative to the US, but the US doesn't really think that much about Canada).

QuoteEdit: And the other side is there may be something to BB's point around Xi adopting this to get a "rally round the flag" but I slightly wonder if we underestimate the power of Chinese public opinion. I've seen articles for years about the Chinese state encouraging nationalism - stuff that way pre-dates Xi - and whether the Chinese state could actually control it. They're still stoking it.

Not sure about the "we" there  :lol:

Personally I think Chinese public opinion is one of the most important factors in Chinese politics. Chinese politicians absolutely care about it (which is why they spend so much effort in shaping and controlling it). And China has a long history of serious social upheaval once the people get well and truly sick of the governing class' shit.

Almost every Chinese political decision I'm aware of - and I follow internal Chinese politics somewhat, albeit second hand via my wife and in-laws - are framed in terms the people, and the public reaction is considered and discussed in great detail and as having basically equal importance as the manoeuvres of various factions.

QuoteChina's obviously a million miles from democratic but it is aware of and I think quite responsive to public attitudes/opinion (possibly more than democracies because it's based on constant monitoring rather than a vote every four years). There's a bit of me that wonders if part of this is actually a consequence of the years when China encouraged nationalism it is now finding it difficult to manage or de-escalate situations because of public opinion - or public opinion on monitored social media platforms.

Yeah, I think they jumped on the tiger and they're going to have a hard time coming off of it. The H&M story - or at least the theory I shared upthread - is a good example of how populist sentiment can be used to harm the interests of specific factions (in this case Xi).

QuoteAgain no idea but I wonder if the CCP is far more afraid of public unrest in the event of a perceived "humiliation" rather than say a desire for democracy.

I think they're against democracy because they don't want to give up power, but I think they're confident they can continue to crush any democracy or rule of law groups as required. But international humiliation that makes them look weak in the eyes of the population (and rival internal factions)? Yeah, that's a serious risk IMO. Which is why, to me, stepping up the overseas conflict as much as they have is a big risk as it increases both the stakes and the risks of such a humiliation down the road.

But obviously they consider it worth the risk, either because they think the alternatives are worse or because they think they can handle it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 01:11:04 PM
China is also doing a great job getting India and the US close together. That strikes me as a disastrous development if your goal is to knock the US down a few pegs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 01:11:23 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 12:43:22 PM
No - I think they've clearly fucked up.

But that's why I think China is behaving differently than it did in the 90s. It doesn't mean I think they're doing it well or this is their sole path. It's because they are significantly more powerful than they were in 1989 and they aspire to more power.

Edit: And in terms of motivation I think they have overestimated their strength. In relation to the EU in particular I think the rush by the EU to agree the deal last year gave the impression to China that the EU was basically very weak and willing to agree almost anything to do a deal, which meant China's position was quite strong.

I think they have probably been surprised in Beijing that imposing sanctions on European parliamentarians and think tanks has resulted in issues with their deal. I think they probably miscalculated the politics in Europe, but not unreasonably given the rush at the end of last year to agree the deal in principle.

Like I said, there's a prevailing theory that the conflict with the EU - and the flash point over H&M - was engineered internally by Xi's opponents within the CCP to weaken him. It's a bit of Zhongnanhaiology as it were, but it's at least plausible. Whether it was engineered or an overplay by Xi, I agree the consequences have been disagreeable to the regime.

... which is satisfying :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 01:13:47 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 01:11:04 PM
China is also doing a great job getting India and the US close together. That strikes me as a disastrous development if your goal is to knock the US down a few pegs.

IMO, China's motive is not to specifically to knock down the US however many pegs. I think there are two motives:

1) Be treated more like the Great Power they are, by everyone (including by, but not limited, to the US). They want to be able to push around their immediate neighbours. They want to be able to marshal minor countries elsewhere to support their interests. They want to be treated respectfully by peer powers.

2) Manage their internal politics, by succeeding at 1).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 26, 2021, 01:17:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 12:06:47 PM
China seems to be working very hard to burn all the goodwill they built up after 1989.

I don't get it. They were being very successful playing nice but then looked over at Russia and decided to be like them instead for some reason. The Chinese, in a very un-Mono way, are letting politics get in the way of money.

I wonder to what extent the change is caused by the possibility that the CCP will be old before it is rich enough to care for all the elders, and/or before they'll be able to solve their environmental degradation (and what not)

Iirc, there are already more people retiring than there are joining the workforce, population growth is probably over (or will be real soon), people are putting their money in houses they'll never use, water is a massive issue (one that might very will trigger a war with India), no social security worth the name....

It's as if the Party has decided to throw around it's weight now because there might very well be no later.

edit: ah, I now see that the comparison with Germany pre-1914 has already been made (rising power, place in the sun, in their case a big ass neighbour that was industrialising at an equally insane pace)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 01:40:10 PM
Agree with all of that :)

Quote from: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 01:06:49 PM
It's hard to say. At the time of the showdown, Bo was the one who was leaning into the nationalism and harking back to the Cultural Revulotion as a good thing and so on. But whether he would've gone harder that way, or whether he'd be more heavy on the trappings but more considered witht he policy is far beyond me.
Yeah - and it may also just be my ignorance of how Xi positioned himself before coming to power, particularly in relation to Bo and actually this was all terribly predictable. But I, again possibly ignorantly, would've assumed this scenario would be more likely if Bo had taken over.

QuoteHeh, that's a pretty UK centric perspective. I don't think the EU needs to see itself in competition with the UK much more than it's in competition with Canada. Conversely, the UK is going to perpetually define itself in terms of its relation to the EU, and there it has very much cast itself as being in competition. But from my perspective it'll likely be pretty one-sided (much like how Canada often defines itself relative to the US, but the US doesn't really think that much about Canada).
I'm less sure - maybe in general at an EU or European level you're right and I think you're definitely right if things go badly for the UK. But I think the UK v EU comparison is something that will, below the surface possibly, matter in France, for example.

But an example is that I don't think vaccines become as big a political issue in Europe if the UK is going at the same pace as them. If it was just Israel and the US storming ahead I think that it doesn't matter because there are reasons/rationalisations why they're doing better: Israel's small (or the size of many EU member states) and did a deal with Pfizer, the US is very capitalist and morally vacuous hoarding all their vaccines. I think it's the fact that the UK was doing well having opted out of the EU scheme that intensified the political pressure. Similarly if the EU program was miles ahead of the UK I think it would have had huge political salience here, while Israel is broadly ignored.

I'm not sure that dynamic is unique to vaccines, I think it will recur in lots of bits of policy because for the first time in a while the systems/alternative approaches in Europe will not be the EU (and acceding states) or Russia, Turkey, Belarus or Ukraine.

QuoteNot sure about the "we" there  :lol:
:blush:

QuoteI think they're against democracy because they don't want to give up power, but I think they're confident they can continue to crush any democracy or rule of law groups as required. But international humiliation that makes them look weak in the eyes of the population (and rival internal factions)? Yeah, that's a serious risk IMO. Which is why, to me, stepping up the overseas conflict as much as they have is a big risk as it increases both the stakes and the risks of such a humiliation down the road.

But obviously they consider it worth the risk, either because they think the alternatives are worse or because they think they can handle it.
Yeah - I agree.

And I think there is also ideological/philosophical content around this - I don't think the rise in Carl Schmitt studies in China or papers on theorising "empire" means is just window dressing. I think it is relevant and shaping decisions. I think too much of that is written off or ignored in the West.

I also wonder if there is a generational angle of this being the first proper leadership generation (from my understanding) that is out of Deng's shadow and, you know, under Mao China stands up, under Deng it gets rich and now there needs to be a new project or purpose. I get that the CCP isn't the old Maoist party or the Soviet Communist party - but I think a Communist Party needs an endpoint it should be aspiring to reach - without that it is meaningless in a way that normal/non-Communist parties aren't.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 01:45:14 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 01:40:10 PM
under Mao China stands up,

China was already up. It was already recognized as one of the five great powers even when Chiang Kai-shek was in charge. Mao helped knock it down a bit by isolating it and killing off tens of millions of people due to idiocy and mismanagement.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 01:55:33 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 01:45:14 PM
China was already up. It was already recognized as one of the five great powers even when Chiang Kai-shek was in charge. Mao helped knock it down a bit by isolating it and killing off tens of millions of people due to idiocy and mismanagement.

In China, the CCP has basically appropriated the credit for all the work of the Nationalists to the CCP.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 02:12:26 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 01:40:10 PM
Yeah - and it may also just be my ignorance of how Xi positioned himself before coming to power, particularly in relation to Bo and actually this was all terribly predictable. But I, again possibly ignorantly, would've assumed this scenario would be more likely if Bo had taken over.

IIRC he was basically a cifre. The main speculation was to what degree his father's treatment would influence his policy (and how), but little was known.

QuoteHI'm less sure - maybe in general at an EU or European level you're right and I think you're definitely right if things go badly for the UK. But I think the UK v EU comparison is something that will, below the surface possibly, matter in France, for example.

But an example is that I don't think vaccines become as big a political issue in Europe if the UK is going at the same pace as them. If it was just Israel and the US storming ahead I think that it doesn't matter because there are reasons/rationalisations why they're doing better: Israel's small (or the size of many EU member states) and did a deal with Pfizer, the US is very capitalist and morally vacuous hoarding all their vaccines. I think it's the fact that the UK was doing well having opted out of the EU scheme that intensified the political pressure. Similarly if the EU program was miles ahead of the UK I think it would have had huge political salience here, while Israel is broadly ignored.

I'm not sure that dynamic is unique to vaccines, I think it will recur in lots of bits of policy because for the first time in a while the systems/alternative approaches in Europe will not be the EU (and acceding states) or Russia, Turkey, Belarus or Ukraine.

You may be right re: vaccines. I'm not sure it's going to carry forward that much though. I think it's pretty context dependent. But we'll see :)

QuoteAnd I think there is also ideological/philosophical content around this - I don't think the rise in Carl Schmitt studies in China or papers on theorising "empire" means is just window dressing. I think it is relevant and shaping decisions. I think too much of that is written off or ignored in the West.

Not familiar with Carl Schmitt studies...?

But I've long been of the opinon that the CCP China is an imperialist power, using imperialist tools to achieve imperialist goals.

QuoteI also wonder if there is a generational angle of this being the first proper leadership generation (from my understanding) that is out of Deng's shadow and, you know, under Mao China stands up, under Deng it gets rich and now there needs to be a new project or purpose. I get that the CCP isn't the old Maoist party or the Soviet Communist party - but I think a Communist Party needs an endpoint it should be aspiring to reach - without that it is meaningless in a way that normal/non-Communist parties aren't.

Yeah, it looks to me that they've embraced "we're a Great Power"/ "the Middle Kingdom demands respect" as their current project.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 02:28:29 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 02:12:26 PM
Not familiar with Carl Schmitt studies...?
I only discovered it through Adam Tooze making a reference somewhere to the fact that there's apparently Schmitt fever in Chinese universities. While he was the legal theorist of Nazi Germany he was also, I think before the rise of the Nazis a very interesting critic of liberalism (the Talking Politics History of Ideas podcast did an episode on him) and apparently academia in (Communist!) China has taken a huge interest in him in recent years.

There was a piece in the Atlantic on it:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/12/nazi-china-communists-carl-schmitt/617237/

And I think I've seen the odd mention of him on the Reading the China Dream blog.

Edit: This piece also looks interesting:
http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1784/totalitarian-friendship-carl-schmitt-in-contemporary-china

QuoteBut I've long been of the opinon that the CCP China is an imperialist power, using imperialist tools to achieve imperialist goals.
[...]
Yeah, it looks to me that they've embraced "we're a Great Power"/ "the Middle Kingdom demands respect" as their current project.
Yep :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 02:46:48 PM
Is anyone actually surprised at China's treatment of Hong Kong?

I mean...did anyone believe for a moment that there was ever any chance that China would look at the "agreement" in good faith at all?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 02:52:16 PM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 02:46:48 PM
Is anyone actually surprised at China's treatment of Hong Kong?

I mean...did anyone believe for a moment that there was ever any chance that China would look at the "agreement" in good faith at all?

I am not surprised by the final result...that was pretty much inevitable (at the end of the Basic Law)  I think most were surprised, however, by how quickly they moved up the timeline.

Along with the naiveté that the whole "capitalism (with HK as an infecting virus) will make China more democratic" bullshit would kick in by then.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 02:59:26 PM
In the 1990s I was definitely banging my shoe on tables proclaiming the historically inevitable victory of Liberalism. However the reaction to the Falun Gong Cult/Religion was the wake up call that things were not going to go our way in China. O kind of excused Tibet and the rest of that to a discredited Maoist past...which was dumb. Ah well.

I don't think I was alone though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 26, 2021, 02:59:31 PM
Agreed.
There's no logical reason for China to be doing this. Hong Kong is just one small city and its not like it is infecting the mainland with its dangerous ideas as everyone had hoped pre handover.
With time Hong Kong was steadily being assimilated as Shanghai grew, mainlanders moved to HK, Cantonese is beaten into the dust, etc...
Logically you'd have thought they'd have just been patient and held to the agreement by which time cracking down would have been much easier anyway.

Though it must be said I don't think the capitalism infecting China thing is a bullet they've altogether dodged.
The Chinese people have gotten used to a certain standard of living, and it is a very precariously balanced one, the more China acts up and pulls itself apart from the west the dodgier maintaining this looks.
China already had the emerging challenge of growing grey before they grow rich. Now they're getting their middle income manufacturing economy slowly pulled out from under them before they've gotten too far in transitioning to a high income economy,
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 03:04:02 PM
Quote from: Tyr on May 26, 2021, 02:59:31 PM
Agreed.
There's no logical reason for China to be doing this. Hong Kong is just one small city and its not like it is infecting the mainland with its dangerous ideas as everyone had hoped pre handover.
With time Hong Kong was steadily being assimilated as Shanghai grew, mainlanders moved to HK, Cantonese is beaten into the dust, etc...
Logically you'd have thought they'd have just been patient and held to the agreement by which time cracking down would have been much easier anyway.

I think there is ample and obvious reasons why they are doing this, and honestly, if I were them, I would be doing the same thing.

From their perspective, HK was nothing but a blatant, in your face reminder of their weakness. I always assumed ANY deal they entered into in regards to getting the Brits out of HK amounted to them saying whatever was needed to be said, then the moment they had actual control promptly ignoring any agreement as quickly as they can get away with without it costing them too much diplomatically, but having exactly zero actual care for the actual terms of any agreement.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 26, 2021, 03:05:58 PM
The human rights angle, rightly or wrongly, is really a sideshow.  The more significant policy shift has been increasing willingness of the US and Europe to restrict Chinese trade and investment on national security grounds. This trend really got moving in the US under Trump's administration but it is not a Trumpist policy (Trump opposed trade on traditional protectionist grounds) - it is a bipartisan policy that unites Trumpist nativist, internationalist neo-cons, traditional trade unionists, and progressive human rights critics of China. And it is starting to go beyond restriction into discussion of industrial policy initiatives such as reshoring production of essential commodities and products and securing overseas sources of key materials.

The fundamental question is what are the substantive bases for security conflict between China and the West? One source of friction is China's drive to dominate the South China Sea. The reality is that China's success in that sphere is inevitable.  The have the ability and the will to develop and deploy sufficient resources and capabilities to dominate the area and there is little short of all out war that the US and in allies can do to stop it from happening.  And the US will not go to war over Chinese regional influence and effective sea control of that region. FWIW my own opinion is that the US has never taken this competition seriously - if it did, it would have signed UNCLOS long ago.

The wild card is Taiwan.  Xi personally and PRC have committed irrevocably to their vision of territorial integrity and need to present at least a plausible prospect of eventual reunification; however, Taiwanese politics cannot be counted on to accommodate that, especially since Xi's brutal annihilation of Hong Kong's separate "system" within the one China "country" destroyed what was supposed to be the model for peaceful unification. The unknown questions are China's appetite to put the matter to force and how far the US will go to to resist that force.

Other than Taiwan, however, it is not clear to me what the underlying security conflict is between China on the one hand and the "West" on the other.  Compared to the Cold War, China's threat to core security interests is far more attenuated and the potential benefits of cooperation are greater.  it should not escape notice that China has responded to increasing confrontation from the West by drawing closer to Russia and any China policy must take into account potential secondary effects of strengthening Russia as well.

I don't have a problem with taking a hawkish line on China but the policy should be based on practical and realistic assessment of policy goals and risks.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 26, 2021, 03:11:45 PM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 02:46:48 PM
Is anyone actually surprised at China's treatment of Hong Kong?

I mean...did anyone believe for a moment that there was ever any chance that China would look at the "agreement" in good faith at all?

As I just stated above - "surprise" may be the wrong word.  But there are obvious implications to what China is doing in HK on the policy towards Taiwan.  The HK example allowed the PRC and Taiwan to maintain the polite and ambiguous fiction that maybe someday there could be some political framework that encompassed both nations, as long as one country two systems could be plausibly maintained. Since Taiwan's status for the past 7 decades has been based on a series of fictions, the loss of this hypothetical narrative is destabilizing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 03:16:05 PM
I am rather reminded of this film scene (for all the flaws the movie has)  :sleep:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTNIg47QJpI&t=397s
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 03:52:43 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 26, 2021, 03:11:45 PM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 02:46:48 PM
Is anyone actually surprised at China's treatment of Hong Kong?

I mean...did anyone believe for a moment that there was ever any chance that China would look at the "agreement" in good faith at all?

As I just stated above - "surprise" may be the wrong word.  But there are obvious implications to what China is doing in HK on the policy towards Taiwan.  The HK example allowed the PRC and Taiwan to maintain the polite and ambiguous fiction that maybe someday there could be some political framework that encompassed both nations, as long as one country two systems could be plausibly maintained. Since Taiwan's status for the past 7 decades has been based on a series of fictions, the loss of this hypothetical narrative is destabilizing.

But I don't think China minds that destabilization at all, indeed, I suspect they welcome it.

They likely see the fiction around Taiwan as just as galling as the fiction around Honk Kong.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on May 26, 2021, 03:57:22 PM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 02:46:48 PM
Is anyone actually surprised at China's treatment of Hong Kong?

I mean...did anyone believe for a moment that there was ever any chance that China would look at the "agreement" in good faith at all?

In 1997 I had zero faith that the CCP would honour the agreement.

But let's remember - that was 20+ years ago.  Over the next number of years China did in fact honour the transition agreement.  And there seemed to be a real incentive for China to do so - if they could demonstrate that "one country, two systems" could actually work then perhaps Taiwan could be persuaded to peacefully return to the fold.

But now I'm back to having zero faith.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 04:39:27 PM
Back then I doubted but hoped.

More significantly, back then I thought there was a path for China to ease up on totalitarianism and imperialism. Didn't work out, alas.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 04:42:17 PM
The question, I guess, becomes to what degree the West is willing to back Taiwan when push comes to shove.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 04:42:55 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 04:39:27 PM
Back then I doubted but hoped.

More significantly, back then I thought there was a path for China to ease up on totalitarianism and imperialism. Didn't work out, alas.

I guess my thinking was that even if they eased up totalitarianism, they STILL would not stick to any agreement a moment longer then they absolutely had to.

I really looked at the HK agreement in the same way I look at how Germany looked at Versailles - an odious agreement that is so galling to their own idea of sovereignty, it could not possibly last absent some very, very serious exterior force making adherence simply mandatory. And of course there is and could not be any such force in regards to China.

Even a more liberal China would still be very nationalistic. And frankly, the very idea of Hong Kong has to be just completely galling to China's sense of national identity.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 04:46:20 PM
Yeah, for sure, I agree re: the galling aspect of Hong Kong's existence and the willingness to discard any agreement. I just thought there was a path where it wouldn't be so bad for Hong Kong as China itself could've moved to be less odious. But yeah, China is plenty nationalistic.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 04:50:18 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 04:42:17 PM
The question, I guess, becomes to what degree the West is willing to back Taiwan when push comes to shove.

Call me a cynic...but likely some weak protests followed by impotent targeted sanctions on individuals.  That is all we do nowadays.

After several months..."well yeah, we did agree to that one-China thing in principle after all...back to business".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on May 26, 2021, 04:56:12 PM
I do not think the US would acquiesce to an armed invasion of Taiwan.  Taiwan itself is too important a part of the world economy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:03:00 PM
If it goes to a conventional shooting war between the US and China, it's hard not to see that rapidly approaching WW3.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:09:53 PM
I'm just an armchair general, but I see two likely ways that China would look at a Taiwan invasion:

- A "cautious" approach...invade Taiwan while carefully avoiding attacks on any US (or 3rd party) military assets...essentially daring us to intervene/attack.  This way they could give plausible basis to a "we're just enforcing the one-China thing" argument, and play a partial victim.

- "Balls to the wall" approach...invade Taiwan while eliminating US threats in the regions.  This means obliterating Okinawa and bringing Japan into the fight, and pre-emptive elimination of any CVNs in the area...and risking a "Pearl Harbour all over again" resolve to a US response.  Hard to see this one not reaching a WW3-like spiral very quickly.

I'd think it more likely they'd go with the former, and plan for an overwhelming attack with the goal of a quick victory/quick Taiwanese surrender...and hand the West a fait accompli.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 05:14:12 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:03:00 PM
If it goes to a conventional shooting war between the US and China, it's hard not to see that rapidly approaching WW3.

For sure. So the question for China is whether they're willing to push that for Taiwan, knowing there's a chance the US does not back down.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 05:15:35 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:09:53 PM
I'm just an armchair general, but I see two likely ways that China would look at a Taiwan invasion:

- A "cautious" approach...invade Taiwan while carefully avoiding attacks on any US (or 3rd party) military assets...essentially daring us to intervene/attack.  This way they could give plausible basis to a "we're just enforcing the one-China thing" argument, and play a partial victim.

- "Balls to the wall" approach...invade Taiwan while eliminating US threats in the regions.  This means obliterating Okinawa and bringing Japan into the fight, and pre-emptive elimination of any CVNs in the area...and risking a "Pearl Harbour all over again" resolve to a US response.  Hard to see this one not reaching a WW3-like spiral very quickly.

I'd think it more likely they'd go with the former, and plan for a massive, overwhelming attack and hoping quick victory and quick Taiwanese surrender, and give the West a fait accompli.

I think the best way for China to do this is to get some sort of useful idiots on the Taiwan side to invite them over or provide a pretext for an attack (Taiwanese originated "terrorism" or some such).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 26, 2021, 05:16:36 PM
The concern is what happens with nukes.
It's not quite your traditional cold war ww3 when you can expect them to be launched ASAP.
But still.... They are a quick and easy way to be rid of a airfield or carrier group...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:18:29 PM
Quote from: Tyr on May 26, 2021, 05:16:36 PM
The concern is what happens with nukes.
It's not quite your traditional cold war ww3 when you can expect them to be launched ASAP.
But still.... They are a quick and easy way to be rid of a airfield or carrier group...

They don't need to use nukes.  Saturate a carrier group with surprise and enough mid-range conventional anti-ship missiles, and you get the job done.

Our ship-borne anti-missile defenses might be pretty good...but even they run out of ammo.

And that doesn't even mention the potential saturation attacks from submarines...even if we did know where all of them are located at all times.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 05:29:59 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:03:00 PM
If it goes to a conventional shooting war between the US and China, it's hard not to see that rapidly approaching WW3.

That is hyperbole.

I can't see how it could possibly approach anything like a World War. Who would be joining China in this war against the world?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 05:31:08 PM
Who would be firing nukes, and under what scenario would they be launched?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:33:14 PM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 05:29:59 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:03:00 PM
If it goes to a conventional shooting war between the US and China, it's hard not to see that rapidly approaching WW3.

That is hyperbole.

I can't see how it could possibly approach anything like a World War. Who would be joining China in this war against the world?

North Korea?  :P

But seriously...the next World War...no matter where it is, will likely stand out in more stark terms of highlighting those who refuse to take a side, than those who choose to fight.

For example, Russia would not get involved...but would almost certainly say that China is within its rights to enforce their control over Taiwan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 05:40:09 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:33:14 PM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 05:29:59 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:03:00 PM
If it goes to a conventional shooting war between the US and China, it's hard not to see that rapidly approaching WW3.

That is hyperbole.

I can't see how it could possibly approach anything like a World War. Who would be joining China in this war against the world?

North Korea?  :P

But seriously...the next World War...no matter where it is, will likely stand out in more stark terms of highlighting those who refuse to take a side, than those who choose to fight.

For example, Russia would not get involved...but would almost certainly say that China is within its rights to enforce their control over Taiwan.

Can you define "World War" then? Because I don't think it means what you think it means. Or maybe it doesn't mean what I think it means....
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 06:02:11 PM
Yeah, if for example the US and China get into an all-out knock-down total war with conventional forces and nukes, I think most third parties will want to stay clear of it. I mean, Russia will be laughing and stay clear if they can.

I think US allies may get involved, depending on how it shakes out of course.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 06:03:16 PM
If China just straight up invades Taiwan all you fuckers better not stay neutral. What is the plan for Canada and company if China kicks our ass?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2021, 06:06:49 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 06:03:16 PM
If China just straight up invades Taiwan all you fuckers better not stay neutral. What is the plan for Canada and company if China kicks our ass?

Agreed.

I think Canada will always support the US actions, one way or the other. That's how the bread is buttered. If China straight up invades Taiwan, I'll personally be all on board for supporting the US in defending Taiwan so I'm with you there as well. I think European NATO allies should be there as well, as far as I'm concerned.

I mean, I think (but am not sure) that technically that neither Canada nor the Western European nations are obligated to fight even defensive wars in Asia? Are they/ we signatories to treaties to that effect? But I agree, in the case of an all up invasion of Taiwan for no reason other than "it's ours and now we take it", Canada and the European NATO members should contribute to stopping China. And I would hope they/ we would do so vigorously.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 07:23:28 PM
I think a knock down, drag out war over Taiwan could be very intense, and wuold have a nearly zero percent chance of involving any WMDs of any kind.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on May 26, 2021, 07:38:17 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 26, 2021, 06:03:16 PM
If China just straight up invades Taiwan all you fuckers better not stay neutral. What is the plan for Canada and company if China kicks our ass?

I can't see this happening, the US military and naval forces have banked decades worth of huge 'investments' in weapon systems and all the necessary training that goes with it.  It's the reverse of May 1940- Dec 1941 when highly trained and somewhat better equipped Axis forces routed Western democracies for a while.

No doubt Chinese forces could do US regional forces and allies significant damage, but the US navy is still by far the pre-eminent world naval power and the Chinese naval/coastal defence forces aren't comparable to the Japanese imperial navy of 1941.
My guess is within a month or so of a wide ranging Chinese attack to invade Taiwan, the US and allies would have gained the strategic initiate and would be able to mount devastating conventional attacks on remaining naval, air and strategic targets in China's East coastal provinces.

Additionally nearly all of China's commercial shipping not in home ports will have been accounted for. And would China's financial system be robust enough to survive the crisis?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on May 26, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
I think China's relative lack of nuclear capability will serve to avoid the nuclear exchange, because there won't be a threat of first strike.  If US were to duke it out with Russia, however, then all bets are off.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 08:05:49 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 26, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
I think China's relative lack of nuclear capability will serve to avoid the nuclear exchange, because there won't be a threat of first strike.  If US were to duke it out with Russia, however, then all bets are off.

Indeed. The dangers with Russia are radically greater for a couple different reasons.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 26, 2021, 09:32:25 PM
Chiefly, that Russians are fucking crazy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 09:35:32 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on May 26, 2021, 09:32:25 PM
Chiefly, that Russians are fucking crazy.

Indeed. That is one of the factors.

The other is that both sides have credible (or at least imagine themselves to have credible) first strike capabilities. That makes actual shooty shooty wars really damn scary.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on May 26, 2021, 11:12:24 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on May 26, 2021, 09:32:25 PM
Chiefly, that Russians are fucking crazy.

But Soviet tanks never crossed the borders with the West.  Maybe they are not that crazy after all?  :unsure:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 11:55:39 PM
Quote from: Zanza on May 26, 2021, 03:06:38 PM
Wasn't it concluded in the early to mid 90s when it looked like liberal capitalism had triumphed and "history was over"? I have zero knowledge on the particulars of the agreement or its reception, but based on the general view of the world order back then could imagine an optimism that did not foresee the current stronger authoritarian nationalism in China.
It was agreed in 1984. The UK's lease of large chunks of Hong Kong lasted for 99 years and would run out in 1997 - Thatcher wanted to renew the lease. My understanding is that was absolutely unacceptable to Deng, who made clear China intended to re-assert sovereignty in full over all of Hong Kong (possibly like India and Goa).

But it's worth remembering that Hong Kong was very much a colony of the British. It had a Governor. It had very limited democratic institutions (MacMilllan had considered democratising Hong Kong as a dominion, like Singapore, but was told by Zhou Enlai that China would consider that a "very unfriendly act"). The legislative council had some electoral element but was largely appointed by the Governor. That was what was being handed over.

What changed, in the 90s, was Chris Patten became Governor (Fat Pang) and I think he felt very strongly that the UK owed something more to Hong Kongers. So he forced through electoral legislation - over very strong opposition from Beijing who wanted a hand over of the purely colonial administration and broad indifference from London. He also pushed for offfering all Hong Kongers British passports - which London rejected. I think his approach was if he could build some democratic and liberal instituions they might survive at least for the 50 years of One Country, Two Systems and, if they didn't, he'd try to give everyone in Hong Kong a way out. Neither fully happened.

QuoteDoes China actually have any "friends" internationally which are not just partners of convenience due to Chinese money?
Yeah, I think so. I think in the developing world  - especially Africa and some Latin American countries the money helps but also China is seen as a model for development/as a country who can help them grow rich as China did under Deng. I think Russia's move into the Chinese sphere is sincere/not just based on money too. Plus Pakistan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 27, 2021, 01:11:04 AM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 05:40:09 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:33:14 PM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 05:29:59 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:03:00 PM
If it goes to a conventional shooting war between the US and China, it's hard not to see that rapidly approaching WW3.

That is hyperbole.

I can't see how it could possibly approach anything like a World War. Who would be joining China in this war against the world?

North Korea?  :P

But seriously...the next World War...no matter where it is, will likely stand out in more stark terms of highlighting those who refuse to take a side, than those who choose to fight.

For example, Russia would not get involved...but would almost certainly say that China is within its rights to enforce their control over Taiwan.

Can you define "World War" then? Because I don't think it means what you think it means. Or maybe it doesn't mean what I think it means....

I would hope enough of our allies would be involved that it would meet that (very arbitrary) threshold...or I would be rather disappointed.  :sleep:

The RotW may not be direct belligerents...but bet your ass the entire world would feel, and likely be involved in nearly every aspect of the political and economic fallouts.

But I think we both know, that seriously arguing about the definition of "world war" isn't very useful (and I would grant, even used by me with a bit a dramatic exagerration), as the definition is ultimately a matter of opinion, be that either individual or public (or academic, if you like).



Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 02:15:32 AM
Incidentally on Hong Kong - it's stories like this that make me think if you want to do business in China with certain risks, you'd be as well setting up in Shanghai; if you want somewhere with rule of law and less risk, Singapore is probably the better option. So it's not clear what Hong Kong's pitch is anymore:
QuoteEXCLUSIVE Hong Kong threatens Lai's bankers with jail if they deal in his accounts
Greg TorodeJames PomfretSumeet Chatterjee
7 minute read

Hong Kong's security chief sent letters to media tycoon Jimmy Lai and branches of HSBC and Citibank this month threatening up to seven years' jail for any dealings with the billionaire's accounts in the city, according to documents seen by Reuters.

The letters, signed by Secretary for Security John Lee, were sent to Lai after the Hong Kong authorities announced the freezing of his majority stake in publisher Next Digital (0282.HK) and local accounts of three companies owned by him under a sweeping new national security law.

One of Lai's financial advisers said that while the amount of funds in the accounts was relatively small, they represented the Hong Kong management end of a global network of banking relationships covering his private wealth.

Three senior private bankers and three corporate lawyers - independent from Lai's accounts - said the action extended the tightening national security apparatus into elite tiers of the banking system for the first time, exposing risks for clients and top financial managers in Hong Kong.


The advisers are seeking guidance from bankers and lawyers on how to challenge the freeze, and its impact on offshore holdings and banking relationships managed through Hong Kong until now.

The action by the security secretary is also fuelling concern about the broader investment climate in the city given the potential reach of the security law, imposed on the former British colony last June by China's parliament, lawyers, bankers and diplomats say.


The moves could imperil any attempt by the democracy activist to move offshore assets back home to prop up Next's troubled Apple Daily tabloid, a staunch government critic, the financial adviser said.

Shares in Next Digital rose as much as 330% as they resumed trading on Thursday after authorities last week froze Lai's 71.26% stake, then worth $45 million.

Lai has emerged as one of the highest profile targets of the new law and is facing three national security charges including allegedly colluding with a foreign country.

The letter to Lai, sent to him at the city's high-security Stanley Prison, threatens up to seven years' jail and an unspecified fine for any dealing in the named assets, including disposal or conversion, using them as collateral or transferring them in or out of Hong Kong.

The letter to Lai lists seven Hong Kong accounts that are linked to three companies registered in the British Virgin Islands (BVI).

Lai could not be reached for comment.

Described as "Notice No. 1", the letter states that the action is taken under the "implementation rules" of Article 43 of the law, which allows for the seizure or freezing of property "used or intended to be used" for the commission of an offence.

The letters also acknowledge the right of Lai and the banks to challenge the notice, which expires in May 2023, in court.

The same language was used in letters to HSBC (HSBA.L) and Citibank (C.N), according to the documents seen by Reuters.

A Security Bureau spokesman said as judicial proceedings were going on "it is not appropriate for us to disclose operational details".

"Suffice to say, endangering national security is a very serious crime."

Banking regulator, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), said banks had to cooperate with law enforcement agencies in criminal investigations, including freezing of assets under relevant laws, which includes the national security law.


"The HKMA has no role in criminal investigations and we are not in a position to comment," it said.

'WAKE-UP CALL'

The letter to Lai specified that he would be held liable if he dealt with the assets "except under the authority of a licence" granted by Security Secretary Lee.

The letters to the two banks did not make clear which employees in the bank would be held liable.

A Hong Kong-based spokesperson for Citibank said the bank did not comment on individual client accounts. "Citi is required to comply with all applicable laws and regulations in markets where we operate," the spokesperson said. A spokeswoman at HSBC in Hong Kong declined to comment.

An account in OCBC Wing Hang Bank is also listed in the letter sent to Lai but it is not known if that bank received a similar notice. OCBC Wing Hang declined to comment.

Lai told Reuters last May that, given the pressure building on him, the bulk of his personal wealth was off-shore.

His advisers say this is spread across Asia and North America, including property in Taiwan, hotels in Canada and tens of millions in U.S. stocks.


"We are certain they are determined to choke Apple, and even without trying to seize assets offshore, they are making it difficult to move that money back into Hong Kong," one adviser told Reuters.

"We can now see that any banking relationship you have centred on Hong Kong makes you vulnerable under the national security law – that is going to be a big wake-up call for the wealth management industry here, and their rich clients," the adviser said.

"In trying to nail Jimmy Lai and Apple to the wall, they might well be nailing that industry too."


Lai's advisers fear the uncertainty surrounding his offshore assets stems from the fact that they are held in offshore accounts set up and managed through Hong Kong.

Bankers and lawyers say regulators and banks in other jurisdictions are not obliged to respond to demands related to individual accounts from another country, especially if those requests are not linked to terrorism or money laundering charges.

One senior private banker in Hong Kong said it was a common practice for Hong Kong-based private bankers to set up overseas accounts for clients - operating under a key assumption that such offshoring of wealth would be legally firewalled.


"It doesn't matter if the accounts are set up in Hong Kong. The money is somewhere else, and falls under another jurisdiction," the banker told Reuters. "It's secure."

If, however, confidence in this arrangement were undermined by the national security law and discretionary curbs on monetary outflows, it could hurt the industry.

"A lot of clients have already been spreading their eggs," said the banker who declined to be named given the sensitivity of the issue. "The No. 1 one destination is Singapore."

The 73-year-old Lai is serving a 14-month prison sentence for taking part in unauthorised assemblies during anti-government protests that rocked Hong Kong in 2019.

As those protests built, Lai's representatives moved assets offshore via Hong Kong bank branches to seek protection against a proposed extradition bill that fuelled the demonstrations.

While the government later shelved the bill, its key features - including the ability to render Hong Kong suspects for trial in mainland Chinese courts and broader asset seizure regulations - were included in the security law imposed by China's highest legislative body.

Lee, the security secretary, said last week that the move against Lai was meant to prevent further crimes and wasn't aimed at media work.

Hong Kong's leader Carrie Lam said the action would hopefully reinforce the city's status as a financial hub "so that no-one can use our financial system to carry out acts endangering national security".


Next Digital said in a statement on Wednesday it had enough working capital to operate for at least 18 months from April 1 without new loans or cash injections from Lai.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on May 27, 2021, 02:37:07 AM
Hong Kong's main draw is the listing of Chinese companies.  They won't list in Singapore.  If you want to speculate Chinese stocks, you have to do it in Hong Kong.

Most investors won't run a newspaper that calls for open revolt.  So I am not concerned.  It is highly unlikely they will consider that Jimmy Lai's case applies to them. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 02:39:12 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 27, 2021, 02:37:07 AMMost investors won't run a newspaper that calls for open revolt.  So I am not concerned.  It is highly unlikely they will consider that Jimmy Lai's case applies to them.
The bit I think is chilling isn't Jimmy Lai - it's the orders on the banks and lawyers.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 27, 2021, 03:03:33 AM
Quote from: DGuller on May 26, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
I think China's relative lack of nuclear capability will serve to avoid the nuclear exchange, because there won't be a threat of first strike.  If US were to duke it out with Russia, however, then all bets are off.

I'm not so confident on this. You frequently see reports from on the surface quite decent sources about China actually having far more than is reported.
And why wouldn't it. It has the resources and expertise and can't be blind to this as a weakness.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on May 27, 2021, 04:55:28 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 02:39:12 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 27, 2021, 02:37:07 AMMost investors won't run a newspaper that calls for open revolt.  So I am not concerned.  It is highly unlikely they will consider that Jimmy Lai's case applies to them.
The bit I think is chilling isn't Jimmy Lai - it's the orders on the banks and lawyers.

Same thing.  You can't run a newspaper that tries to overthrow the government any more, and you can't do business with such a newspaper.  Most foreign investors won't try to do anything remotely like that. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 06:48:24 AM
The Hong Kong government has abandoned the fig leaf of rule of law.  That's going to hurt HK, as it's presumed legal system was the main attraction of investing through there.  If one is going to have to deal with the tantrums of despots, Shanghai is the better place to invest.  The HK government cannot continue down the road to absolutism without slaying the goose that lays the golden eggs.  But it is clear that the thugs don't mind killing that, so long as they can pound their chests about putting down "rioters.".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 06:49:47 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 27, 2021, 04:55:28 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 02:39:12 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 27, 2021, 02:37:07 AMMost investors won't run a newspaper that calls for open revolt.  So I am not concerned.  It is highly unlikely they will consider that Jimmy Lai's case applies to them.
The bit I think is chilling isn't Jimmy Lai - it's the orders on the banks and lawyers.

Same thing.  You can't run a newspaper that tries to overthrow the government any more, and you can't do business with such a newspaper.  Most foreign investors won't try to do anything remotely like that.

Most foreign investors won't want to deal with the whims of thugs, though.  China's thugs are more predictable than HK's.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on May 27, 2021, 07:40:29 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:09:53 PMI'd think it more likely they'd go with the former, and plan for an overwhelming attack with the goal of a quick victory/quick Taiwanese surrender...and hand the West a fait accompli.

Yeah. Although looking at a map of Taiwan, quickly landing an amphibious assault force on the island itself looks like hell against a determined defender without very significant preparation . Need to knockout punch the Taiwanese airforce and navy at the start of hostilities. Presumably the Taiwanese will want to resist an invasion and have had a lot of time to plan against it. :hmm:

China would need some time to destroy all of the Taiwanese military installations with missile strikes, gathering an invasion flotilla would be obvious months in advance, giving the Taiwanese time to mobilize, mine the seas around the island and fortify likely landing zones.



Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on May 27, 2021, 07:53:52 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 06:48:24 AM
The Hong Kong government has abandoned the fig leaf of rule of law.  That's going to hurt HK, as it's presumed legal system was the main attraction of investing through there.  If one is going to have to deal with the tantrums of despots, Shanghai is the better place to invest.  The HK government cannot continue down the road to absolutism without slaying the goose that lays the golden eggs.  But it is clear that the thugs don't mind killing that, so long as they can pound their chests about putting down "rioters.".

Yeah we discussed this before and admittedly I am ignorant on the intricacies of the region, but I can't see what will set HK apart from every other major Chinese city, except the absolutely insane property prices, and expectation of further unrest before boots on faces get to press down properly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 27, 2021, 08:03:50 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 27, 2021, 01:11:04 AM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 05:40:09 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:33:14 PM
Quote from: Berkut on May 26, 2021, 05:29:59 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:03:00 PM
If it goes to a conventional shooting war between the US and China, it's hard not to see that rapidly approaching WW3.

That is hyperbole.

I can't see how it could possibly approach anything like a World War. Who would be joining China in this war against the world?

North Korea?  :P

But seriously...the next World War...no matter where it is, will likely stand out in more stark terms of highlighting those who refuse to take a side, than those who choose to fight.

For example, Russia would not get involved...but would almost certainly say that China is within its rights to enforce their control over Taiwan.

Can you define "World War" then? Because I don't think it means what you think it means. Or maybe it doesn't mean what I think it means....

I would hope enough of our allies would be involved that it would meet that (very arbitrary) threshold...or I would be rather disappointed.  :sleep:

The RotW may not be direct belligerents...but bet your ass the entire world would feel, and likely be involved in nearly every aspect of the political and economic fallouts.

But I think we both know, that seriously arguing about the definition of "world war" isn't very useful (and I would grant, even used by me with a bit a dramatic exagerration), as the definition is ultimately a matter of opinion, be that either individual or public (or academic, if you like).

I agree that an argument about what is or is not a world war isn't interesting.

But I don't even agree with the the idea that referencing a future war with China as a "world war" even rheotorically is trying to convey.

I think a war between the US and whatever allies come along and China over Taiwan would be brutal, violent, bloody, and limited.

Of course it would have impacts on the entire world, but any major war would - that doesn't make every major war a world war though. I mean, if it did, then why even have the term if it is just synonymouse with "major war"?

It would be limited to being fought in the immediate environs of Taiwan. It would not spread to other holdings of either power. I think Europe would wring their hands and express dismay but not get involved outside of the UK (maybe) and Canada (maybe) and Australia (maybe) and Japan (maybe). I think some of those might involve themselves, but it is entirely possible that none of them do. If they do however, it won't be them engaging in a general war with China across the globe, but rather contributing forces in the local theater.

There is precedent here, btw - the US and China have already been in a war against one another in Korea. That did not become a world war, and it had lots of other countries participating with the Allies as well.

Neither side would have anything to gain by escalating it beyond Taiwan. For either side, escalation would be considerably worse then simply losing in the immediate theater.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 27, 2021, 08:07:29 AM
Quote from: Tyr on May 27, 2021, 03:03:33 AM
Quote from: DGuller on May 26, 2021, 07:57:37 PM
I think China's relative lack of nuclear capability will serve to avoid the nuclear exchange, because there won't be a threat of first strike.  If US were to duke it out with Russia, however, then all bets are off.

I'm not so confident on this. You frequently see reports from on the surface quite decent sources about China actually having far more than is reported.
And why wouldn't it. It has the resources and expertise and can't be blind to this as a weakness.

They wouldn't because having more isn't a strength, but is actually a weakness.

China has enough capability that they can deter the US from using nukes. But not enough to be a credible threat as a first strike themselves.

They can and will continue to upgrade their capability, make them harder to take out, and harder to intercept, because that is important to their needs.

They are actually a very, very, VERY long way away from having an actual first strike capability, and to get one they would have to spend enormous resources that are frankly better spent on upgrading their conventional forces.

I think China has been very, very smart with their nuclear arsenal.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on May 27, 2021, 08:07:59 AM
I'm not 100% convinced the west will intervene in Taiwan. we didn't card when russia gobbled up a chunk of the ukraine.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 08:10:31 AM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 08:07:59 AM
I'm not 100% convinced the west will intervene in Taiwan. we didn't card when russia gobbled up a chunk of the ukraine.

Not even Ukraine (not "the Ukraine" anymore, btw) intervened when Russia took the Crimea.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on May 27, 2021, 08:25:45 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 08:10:31 AM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 08:07:59 AM
I'm not 100% convinced the west will intervene in Taiwan. we didn't card when russia gobbled up a chunk of the ukraine.

Not even Ukraine (not "the Ukraine" anymore, btw) intervened when Russia took the Crimea.
:pinch: Too soon, man, too soon.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 08:30:24 AM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 08:07:59 AM
I'm not 100% convinced the west will intervene in Taiwan. we didn't card when russia gobbled up a chunk of the ukraine.
A third of global trade doesn't sail through the Black Sea. You might well be right but I think that is a relevant difference.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on May 27, 2021, 08:32:53 AM
Quote from: Berkut on May 27, 2021, 08:03:50 AM

I agree that an argument about what is or is not a world war isn't interesting.

But I don't even agree with the the idea that referencing a future war with China as a "world war" even rheotorically is trying to convey.

I think a war between the US and whatever allies come along and China over Taiwan would be brutal, violent, bloody, and limited.

Of course it would have impacts on the entire world, but any major war would - that doesn't make every major war a world war though. I mean, if it did, then why even have the term if it is just synonymouse with "major war"?

It would be limited to being fought in the immediate environs of Taiwan. It would not spread to other holdings of either power. I think Europe would wring their hands and express dismay but not get involved outside of the UK (maybe) and Canada (maybe) and Australia (maybe) and Japan (maybe). I think some of those might involve themselves, but it is entirely possible that none of them do. If they do however, it won't be them engaging in a general war with China across the globe, but rather contributing forces in the local theater.

There is precedent here, btw - the US and China have already been in a war against one another in Korea. That did not become a world war, and it had lots of other countries participating with the Allies as well.

Neither side would have anything to gain by escalating it beyond Taiwan. For either side, escalation would be considerably worse then simply losing in the immediate theater.

A key difference was the conflict took place within a third country, Korea, North and South.
In this Taiwan scenario from day one the US will be targeting forces within China itself, because I'm pretty sure they're not going to wait for the Chinese invasion troops, naval forces and aircraft to leave a 12-mile territorial limit before attacking them?

There's no convenient Yalu river for both side to demarcate around.


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on May 27, 2021, 08:36:01 AM
Yeah, if the Chinese launch a flash invasion with SF, missile strikes and unopposed amphibious landings taking the outermost Penghu islands and 3 days later Taipei has fallen then, yeah, fait accompli.  :hmm:

If they vigorously resist for weeks and months then China is fucked.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on May 27, 2021, 09:51:08 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 08:10:31 AM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 08:07:59 AM
I'm not 100% convinced the west will intervene in Taiwan. we didn't card when russia gobbled up a chunk of the ukraine.

Not even Ukraine (not "the Ukraine" anymore, btw) intervened when Russia took the Crimea.

Sorry, yes, slip of the fingers.

Like Legbiter said, if Taiwan can be controlled quickly, would the world come in an pry it from their grubby little commie hands? I'm not sure. The world is economically entangled with china. Would the risk it to free a Taiwan? I'm not wholly convinced. but then again its not like im an expert.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 27, 2021, 10:11:08 AM
Yeah fighting a war to dislodge China from Taiwan will be a very different thing from supporting Taiwan defending itself.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 27, 2021, 10:24:00 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 27, 2021, 02:37:07 AM
Hong Kong's main draw is the listing of Chinese companies.  They won't list in Singapore.

But they will list in Shanghai and Shenzen - daily equity trading in those markets already dwarfs HK.

I think sheilbh's point is well taken - if HK loses its unique status it ends up as just another large Chinese regional city.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on May 27, 2021, 10:38:53 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 08:10:31 AM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 08:07:59 AM
I'm not 100% convinced the west will intervene in Taiwan. we didn't card when russia gobbled up a chunk of the ukraine.

Not even Ukraine (not "the Ukraine" anymore, btw) intervened when Russia took the Crimea.

But Russia struck at a very precise moment - in the immediate aftermath of a revolution in Ukraine.  Yanukovych fled the country Feb 22, 2014, while Russian special forces started seizing buildings Feb 27.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on May 27, 2021, 11:26:43 AM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 09:51:08 AMLike Legbiter said, if Taiwan can be controlled quickly, would the world come in an pry it from their grubby little commie hands? I'm not sure.

Taiwan is a very, very hard first opponent for the Chinese navy to tackle though. :hmm: For one it's apparently only feasible to invade once typhoon season is over, the distance to Taiwan from the mainland makes the Normandy invasion seem like a short jaunt and Taiwanese geography is a bitch with not that many feasible landing beaches available.

There's a million ways this goes tits up for the Chinese, probably better for them to go beat up Mongolia for that regime street cred.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on May 27, 2021, 11:29:03 AM
Quote from: Legbiter on May 27, 2021, 11:26:43 AM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 09:51:08 AMLike Legbiter said, if Taiwan can be controlled quickly, would the world come in an pry it from their grubby little commie hands? I'm not sure.

Taiwan is a very, very hard first opponent for the Chinese navy to tackle though. :hmm: For one it's apparently only feasible to invade once typhoon season is over, the distance to Taiwan from the mainland makes the Normandy invasion seem like a short jaunt and Taiwanese geography is a bitch with not that many feasible landing beaches available.

There's a million ways this goes tits up for the Chinese, probably better for them to go beat up Mongolia for that regime street cred.

Also, this isn't 1944 anymore.  A Chinese buildup to take Taiwan would be noticeable for weeks ahead of timegiving the US and others time to prepare.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 27, 2021, 11:30:11 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 27, 2021, 11:29:03 AM
Also, this isn't 1944 anymore.  A Chinese buildup to take Taiwan would be noticeable for weeks ahead of timegiving the US and others time to prepare.
See the recent discovery from satellite images of a new airstrip on an Omani island - guessed to be Emirati.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on May 27, 2021, 11:32:16 AM
doesn't china have 2 million plus active soldiers? how much of a build up do they need? Although, i guess troop movement to the south would be noticeable.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 27, 2021, 11:35:14 AM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 11:32:16 AM
doesn't china have 2 million plus active soldiers? how much of a build up do they need? Although, i guess troop movement to the south would be noticeable.

It's a long way to swim. They could have 2 billion soldiers, but they still have to get them across the straight. It's not really a numbers thing, it is a transport and support thing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 27, 2021, 11:36:00 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 27, 2021, 11:29:03 AM
Also, this isn't 1944 anymore.

1941?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on May 27, 2021, 11:36:03 AM
invasion by kayak :D
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on May 27, 2021, 11:52:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 27, 2021, 11:36:00 AM
Quote from: Barrister on May 27, 2021, 11:29:03 AM
Also, this isn't 1944 anymore.

1941?

I was thinking of D-Day.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 27, 2021, 12:34:09 PM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 11:32:16 AM
doesn't china have 2 million plus active soldiers? how much of a build up do they need? Although, i guess troop movement to the south would be noticeable.

I'm not confident that the regime would be able to sustain significant losses over an extended period of time. They may be able to, but it's not a given IMO, though a lot depends on the particulars of the conflict.

The information warfare angle would be interesting too.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 27, 2021, 12:44:42 PM
How much of a question mark are Chinese capabilities, on the whole? They've not exactly been combat tested in recent memory.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 27, 2021, 12:46:28 PM
Quote from: Syt on May 27, 2021, 12:44:42 PM
How much of a question mark are Chinese capabilities, on the whole? They've not exactly been combat tested in recent memory.

Well nothing beyond those weird skirmishes they have been having with India.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on May 27, 2021, 12:49:18 PM
There was that decisive victory in 1989, though I don't know whether it should be considered recent enough.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on May 27, 2021, 12:51:33 PM
They do look sharp in their military parades.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on May 27, 2021, 12:52:40 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 27, 2021, 12:46:28 PM
Quote from: Syt on May 27, 2021, 12:44:42 PM
How much of a question mark are Chinese capabilities, on the whole? They've not exactly been combat tested in recent memory.

Well nothing beyond those weird skirmishes they have been having with India.

That's the incident where they beat eachother with clubs, right?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 27, 2021, 12:55:53 PM
Quote from: HVC on May 27, 2021, 12:52:40 PM
That's the incident where they beat eachother with clubs, right?

And some giant spiked roller thing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 08:40:15 PM
Quote from: Syt on May 27, 2021, 12:44:42 PM
How much of a question mark are Chinese capabilities, on the whole? They've not exactly been combat tested in recent memory.

The Chinese have spent a lot of money on military training, indoctrination, and officer training.  I think that you have to consider them a typically effective conscript army (not on the level of the Israeli army, but not Russia, either).

The Navy and Air Force are more of a mixed bag.  The very name "People's Liberation Army Navy" tells you who call the shots and gets the promotions.  the navy's equipment seems decent, but they've not had modern naval equipment long enough to have developed effective doctrines and training.  Their carriers, for instance, are at least a decade away from being fully operational.  I suspect the same is true of their modern surface ships.  Submarines are probably typically effective, though, as they've had decent subs for long enough to know how to use them.

And Taiwan doesn't even have the PRC's military traditions and background.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 08:41:32 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 27, 2021, 12:49:18 PM
There was that decisive victory in 1989, though I don't know whether it should be considered recent enough.

Actually, the PLA suffered a whole series of defeats in 1989 before they brought in Mongolians who weren't at all reluctant to kill Han.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 03:56:51 AM
How's the ROC defense? From what I gather a lot of their navy seems old. Is the army up to snuff?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on May 28, 2021, 04:22:35 AM
The army can beat off any land attack.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 28, 2021, 06:26:50 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 03:56:51 AM
How's the ROC defense? From what I gather a lot of their navy seems old. Is the army up to snuff?

The ROC military is set up for a scenario that is no longer plausible:  fighting for air and sea control over the Taiwan Strait.   That's what they are structured for, with air and sea forces considerably outnumbering land forces.

In the modern day situation, with China having eliminated the ROC's technological advantages and being able to deploy missiles capable of knocking out the ROC's main bases, the ROC needs to pivot to sea and air denial, and abandon the idea that it can defend anything except the main island itself.  That means abandoning the building of fighters and large surface combatants, and focusing on deploying large numbers of mobile SAMs and SSMs, plus associated recon and targeting assets.  Right now the ROC military is probably better-trained and motivated than the PLA/N/AF, but not as well equipped and certainly not as well equipped to fight the war that is likely to occur.  The pivot to sea and air denial is happening, but only slowly.  The existing military brass were successful because they were the best at the old strategy, and military budgets have shrunk.

There is also a probable Fifth Column issue.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 06:57:36 AM
What are the odds of Taiwan getting F-35? Their air force seems to be made up of archaic F-5s, old F-16s, oldish Mirage 2000 and not very many of them either. Wikie has the with 56 F-16 V on order, but 56 modern fighters are not going to stop the PLA.

From my perspective it seems that Taiwan would have use of Visby's, A26's and Gripen's. About the same strategic context of a superior enemy that can be expected to have air and naval superiority and only a short distance away.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on May 28, 2021, 07:23:29 AM
Would the US stop food export to China in the defense of Taiwan?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 28, 2021, 08:32:32 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 06:57:36 AM
What are the odds of Taiwan getting F-35? Their air force seems to be made up of archaic F-5s, old F-16s, oldish Mirage 2000 and not very many of them either. Wikie has the with 56 F-16 V on order, but 56 modern fighters are not going to stop the PLA.

From my perspective it seems that Taiwan would have use of Visby's, A26's and Gripen's. About the same strategic context of a superior enemy that can be expected to have air and naval superiority and only a short distance away.

If it needs a runway, it's a bad bet for Taiwan (unless ballistic and cruise missile defenses are massively beefed up, which would probably preclude being able to afford aircraft).  Taiwan needs a lot of mobile stuff and maybe some smaller drones for air surveillance.  Anything in a fixed position should be counted as lost in the first hour of conflict.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 08:49:26 AM
Yeah, that's why I thought Gripen, all it needs is a straight road. But of course, to make a difference it would need hundreds and that is not going to happen.

What about a US trigger force located in Taiwan. Have US planes at ROC bases so any attack by necessity would include the US?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 28, 2021, 09:16:31 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 08:49:26 AM
What about a US trigger force located in Taiwan. Have US planes at ROC bases so any attack by necessity would include the US?

Just basing US forces on Taiwan would be seen as a huge provocation. And rightly so, because it would be for exactly the reason you are stating.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 28, 2021, 09:21:44 AM
Indeed...but it would be an interesting move.  Very provocative, but provocative enough to trigger an immediate invasion?  Even knowing that you couldn't avoid risking direct US military casualties and thus a greater trigger for US intervention?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 09:24:48 AM
Quote from: Berkut on May 28, 2021, 09:16:31 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 08:49:26 AM
What about a US trigger force located in Taiwan. Have US planes at ROC bases so any attack by necessity would include the US?

Just basing US forces on Taiwan would be seen as a huge provocation. And rightly so, because it would be for exactly the reason you are stating.

Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 28, 2021, 09:26:20 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 28, 2021, 09:21:44 AM
Indeed...but it would be an interesting move.  Very provocative, but provocative enough to trigger an immediate invasion?  Even knowing that you couldn't avoid risking direct US military casualties and thus a greater trigger for US intervention?

Well, that is the question, in one form or another, every US administration has been wrestling with for the last 50 years, right?

China wants Taiwan back.

The rest of the world, including Taiwan, want Taiwan to be independent.

The status quo is an independent Taiwan in fact, but not in word.

So US policy is to do whatever they can to maintain that status quo.

Which means that provocation is generally a pretty bad idea, unless it is clearly necessary to deter China from moving from status quo to actual invasion.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 28, 2021, 09:28:36 AM
And of course the other interesting point is Taiwan is particularly strategic in the modern world because of its dominance of global semiconductor manufacturing.

China, Europe and the US are all making developing domestic semiconductor manufacturing a priority, which must be something Taiwan looks at with concern/alarm.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 28, 2021, 09:29:11 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 09:24:48 AM
Quote from: Berkut on May 28, 2021, 09:16:31 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 08:49:26 AM
What about a US trigger force located in Taiwan. Have US planes at ROC bases so any attack by necessity would include the US?

Just basing US forces on Taiwan would be seen as a huge provocation. And rightly so, because it would be for exactly the reason you are stating.

Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.

It is not simply a question of relative strength though.

War over Taiwan is the worst possible outcome for the US. They want to avoid it at nearly any cost. Because there is very little to be gained by such a war. Indeed, there is almost nothing to be gained. Winning such a war might be worse then just letting China have Taiwan...but maybe not.

Germany in 1914 had rivals next door to them, that could (and evenutally did) directly invade and dismember the country. The current (and long ongoing) showdown over Taiwan is nothing like that.


Finally, the cold war mentality is exactly what has been done.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 09:39:11 AM
Yes, war is something to be avoided at almost all cost. I don't think the commies want a big war either and would probably just have to accept a US trigger force.

And then have ROC drop its claims to China and de facto declare independence so that the rest of the world can have proper diplomatic relations and all that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 28, 2021, 09:41:15 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 09:24:48 AM
Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.

If the US is Germany, is Europe Austria-Hungary?  I don't really get this analogy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 28, 2021, 09:43:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 28, 2021, 09:41:15 AM
If the US is Germany, is Europe Austria-Hungary?  I don't really get this analogy.
I don't think 1914 analogy specifically works with Taiwan :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 28, 2021, 09:52:03 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 09:39:11 AM
Yes, war is something to be avoided at almost all cost. I don't think the commies want a big war either and would probably just have to accept a US trigger force.

And then have ROC drop its claims to China and de facto declare independence so that the rest of the world can have proper diplomatic relations and all that.

We don't know what the commies will accept though. They have their own internal pressures, and I don't think you can really over-estimate their concern that they be taken seriously and treated as a great power.

There is a significant element in China that says that a showdown with the US is inevitable in the long run, and there will eventually be a war -so why not one over something that actually gets China something important, like control over Taiwan?

Again, there is no upside to fighting China over Taiwan for the US - the best possible outcome of that is a lot of blood and treasure lost to get the status quo!

The best possible outcome for China is securing Taiwan, and dealing a crippling blow to western prestige and a HUGE boost to China both internally and externally by beating the west in a shooting war.

Provocation, like basing actual troops on Taiwan, makes not sense for the US now, and I can't imagine a scenario where it makes sense ever - absent perhaps the US and China just becoming openly belligerent.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 10:05:50 AM
Fair enough.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 10:15:28 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 28, 2021, 09:41:15 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 09:24:48 AM
Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.

If the US is Germany, is Europe Austria-Hungary?  I don't really get this analogy.

It was not a WW1 analogy. Insert Roman Empire during the five good emperors, or Britain at about 1900 or some other historical example where a power is waning due to other powers rise.  As China grows in power the relative superiority of the US will decrease over time. If the trends continue eventually China will eclipse the US. Like tsarist Russia would do to Germany unless Germany does something about it.

So, if the US had wanted to put trip wire troops in Taiwan it could have done so in the 90ies and just laughed at Chinese protests, but there was no need back then.
At some point fear of China would make those trip wire troops impossible. Perhaps that point is already reached or perhaps it is decades away.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 28, 2021, 10:30:04 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 08:40:15 PM
The Navy and Air Force are more of a mixed bag.  The very name "People's Liberation Army Navy" tells you who call the shots and gets the promotions.  the navy's equipment seems decent, but they've not had modern naval equipment long enough to have developed effective doctrines and training.  Their carriers, for instance, are at least a decade away from being fully operational.  I suspect the same is true of their modern surface ships. 

They've had surface task forces of different compositions operating of the coast of Africa for over a decade now, so at the very least they have decent experience in blue water deployments and sustainment. \
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 28, 2021, 10:35:12 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 10:15:28 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 28, 2021, 09:41:15 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 09:24:48 AM
Yeah, so? Perhaps time for some cold war mentality again, stare them down and all that. The US is in the same position as 1914 Germany, it will only get relatively weaker as time goes by, stare them down when it's still possible.

If the US is Germany, is Europe Austria-Hungary?  I don't really get this analogy.

It was not a WW1 analogy. Insert Roman Empire during the five good emperors, or Britain at about 1900 or some other historical example where a power is waning due to other powers rise.  As China grows in power the relative superiority of the US will decrease over time. If the trends continue eventually China will eclipse the US. Like tsarist Russia would do to Germany unless Germany does something about it.

So, if the US had wanted to put trip wire troops in Taiwan it could have done so in the 90ies and just laughed at Chinese protests, but there was no need back then.
At some point fear of China would make those trip wire troops impossible. Perhaps that point is already reached or perhaps it is decades away.
Trends obviously won't continue however. China's current path has a clear cliff-edge, already they're passed the peak for many of the advantages that got them where they are.
Could China still fin a way to succeed in the future? Yes.
But it won't be on current trends.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 28, 2021, 10:42:35 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 28, 2021, 10:30:04 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 27, 2021, 08:40:15 PM
The Navy and Air Force are more of a mixed bag.  The very name "People's Liberation Army Navy" tells you who call the shots and gets the promotions.  the navy's equipment seems decent, but they've not had modern naval equipment long enough to have developed effective doctrines and training.  Their carriers, for instance, are at least a decade away from being fully operational.  I suspect the same is true of their modern surface ships. 

They've had surface task forces of different compositions operating of the coast of Africa for over a decade now, so at the very least they have decent experience in blue water deployments and sustainment. \

Those forces are tiny, though (two destroyers or frigates, supported by a single replenishment oiler that represented about 50% of the deployable AORs in the fleet).  Australia has more experience in blue water ops over the last 20 years than the PRC.

The PRC is definitely growing in capabilities faster than any other navy, though.  Time is on their side, for the next decade or so.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 28, 2021, 10:44:12 AM
Quote from: Threviel on May 28, 2021, 10:15:28 AM
If the trends continue eventually China will eclipse the US.

It depends which trend you mean.  GDP growth is still strong at around 6 percent a year (official numbers) but that is down from the 10+ percent recorded last decade.  Per capita GDP is in the 11-12K range as opposed to 50-60 for the advanced OECD nations.  Demographically, birth rates are down to 1.3 per woman - this is a population that is going to age very fast.

In 2050 China is likely to be a reasonably prosperous (ie roughly where SKorea is now in relative terms) but elderly nation.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 28, 2021, 10:45:14 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 28, 2021, 10:42:35 AM
Those forces are tiny, though (two destroyers or frigates, supported by a single replenishment oiler that represented about 50% of the deployable AORs in the fleet).  Australia has more experience in blue water ops over the last 20 years than the PRC.

The PRC is definitely growing in capabilities faster than any other navy, though.  Time is on their side, for the next decade or so.

What are they keeping in Djibouti these days?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 28, 2021, 07:19:47 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 28, 2021, 10:45:14 AM
What are they keeping in Djibouti these days?

Just a small support base, as far as I know.  About what Japan has, and much les than what the US and France have.  Djibouti is making bank on renting sand to foreigners.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 31, 2021, 12:18:28 PM
Good news for China - the central government has decreed that couples are now allowed to have three children each. Unfortunately, many young couples can't afford to have even one child.

My prediction: China will need additional measures to reverse the impending population decline.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on May 31, 2021, 12:23:11 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 31, 2021, 12:18:28 PM
Good news for China - the central government has decreed that couples are now allowed to have three children each. Unfortunately, many young couples can't afford to have even one child.

My prediction: China will need additional measures to reverse the impending population decline.

Preventing the best and brightest women being taken away by wiley foreigners, for example.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 31, 2021, 12:29:30 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 31, 2021, 12:23:11 PM
Preventing the best and brightest women being taken away by wiley foreigners, for example.

Oh she left on her own accord, because China's a shitty place to be good and bright. Turned out okay for me though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on May 31, 2021, 12:58:46 PM
In opposition to the Mono-view...a population decline in China is probably a good thing, but we all know it is hard to do well demographic-wise (to avoid that age cohort imbalance).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 31, 2021, 01:10:15 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 31, 2021, 12:58:46 PM
In opposition to the Mono-view...a population decline in China is probably a good thing, but we all know it is hard to do well demographic-wise (to avoid that age cohort imbalance).

Good for whom?

Economically it's potentially going to be a bit of a challenge for China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 31, 2021, 01:28:31 PM
Good for the world.
Most countries would be better off with a smaller population.
The trouble is getting to that situation is very painful.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 31, 2021, 01:36:06 PM
Quote from: Tyr on May 31, 2021, 01:28:31 PM
Good for the world.
Most countries would be better off with a smaller population.
The trouble is getting to that situation is very painful.

BuT eCoNomiC GrOWtH!!!111
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 31, 2021, 02:01:09 PM
Quote from: Syt on May 31, 2021, 01:36:06 PM
BuT eCoNomiC GrOWtH!!!111
More importantly - my pension :blush: :goodboy:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on May 31, 2021, 09:49:02 PM
Obviously the world needs more people.  A lot more.  Humanity needs to expand to meet the expanding needs of the population.  It is central to humanity's mission that we never cease to keep increasing production capacity and efficiency.  A population decline will mean reduced scarcity and nullification of humanity's central mission. 

On China and East Asia, I think one of the problems is that it isn't socially acceptable to have a baby without being married.  I don't have any hard evidence to back this up, but I think it isn't that rare to have a baby without entering into marriage in, say France. 

Say you have two families each bidding for a house or a flat.  Family A has two incomes and no children.  So two income streams, and two mouths to feed.  Family B has a working father, a stay home mother, and two children.  So one income stream, and four mouths to feed.  Family A will almost always out bid Family B, barring exceptional circumstances. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 01, 2021, 01:56:17 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 31, 2021, 12:58:46 PM
In opposition to the Mono-view...a population decline in China is probably a good thing, but we all know it is hard to do well demographic-wise (to avoid that age cohort imbalance).

A gradual decline is one thing, a rapid and hard crash is another.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Maladict on June 01, 2021, 05:13:47 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 31, 2021, 09:49:02 PM

Say you have two families each bidding for a house or a flat.  Family A has two incomes and no children.  So two income streams, and two mouths to feed.  Family B has a working father, a stay home mother, and two children.  So one income stream, and four mouths to feed.  Family A will almost always out bid Family B, barring exceptional circumstances.

How is that unique to China?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 01, 2021, 05:18:17 AM
Quote from: Maladict on June 01, 2021, 05:13:47 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 31, 2021, 09:49:02 PM

Say you have two families each bidding for a house or a flat.  Family A has two incomes and no children.  So two income streams, and two mouths to feed.  Family B has a working father, a stay home mother, and two children.  So one income stream, and four mouths to feed.  Family A will almost always out bid Family B, barring exceptional circumstances.

How is that unique to China?

I didn't say it was unique. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on June 01, 2021, 07:30:28 AM
Yeah only an economic masochist would want to have children. I enjoy pain.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on June 01, 2021, 08:46:23 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 01, 2021, 01:56:17 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 31, 2021, 12:58:46 PM
In opposition to the Mono-view...a population decline in China is probably a good thing, but we all know it is hard to do well demographic-wise (to avoid that age cohort imbalance).

A gradual decline is one thing, a rapid and hard crash is another.

Just as I said.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on June 01, 2021, 10:42:32 AM
There's this thing where the first European campus of the Chinese Fudan university is going to be opened in Budapest, as in the case with other Chinese investments in the country, sponsored by Hungarian taxpayers.

To add insult to injury, it is poised to overtake most of an area designated for a "Student Town" where it was meant to build affordable student halls and such, now instead it will host this quite very expensive Chinese state uni.

The affected councils (city and district) are opposition-controlled and of course ain't happy. They have decided to fight back with what's in their jurisdiction - renaming streets and parks in and around the planned campus:
- Dalai Lama Road
- Uighur Martyrs Road
- Free Hong Kong Road

etc
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 01, 2021, 11:12:20 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 01, 2021, 10:42:32 AM
The affected councils (city and district) are opposition-controlled and of course ain't happy. They have decided to fight back with what's in their jurisdiction - renaming streets and parks in and around the planned campus:
- Dalai Lama Road
- Uighur Martyrs Road
- Free Hong Kong Road

I appreciate the spirit of it :cheers:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on June 01, 2021, 11:18:27 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 01, 2021, 10:42:32 AM
There's this thing where the first European campus of the Chinese Fudan university is going to be opened in Budapest, as in the case with other Chinese investments in the country, sponsored by Hungarian taxpayers.

To add insult to injury, it is poised to overtake most of an area designated for a "Student Town" where it was meant to build affordable student halls and such, now instead it will host this quite very expensive Chinese state uni.

The affected councils (city and district) are opposition-controlled and of course ain't happy. They have decided to fight back with what's in their jurisdiction - renaming streets and parks in and around the planned campus:
- Dalai Lama Road
- Uighur Martyrs Road
- Free Hong Kong Road

etc

We want to avoid foreign liberal influence through some billionaires money! So we are going to make ourselves functionally a colony of another country at our own expense. Sounds logical. But I guess China has few Jews.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 01, 2021, 11:23:19 AM
If they're taking suggestions, you should off up something like "Independent Country of Taiwan" street/ park.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on June 01, 2021, 11:25:36 AM
Put up a huge playground with Winnie the Pooh theme across from it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on June 01, 2021, 11:27:22 AM
Put a lot of nerdy game/hobby shops in the area. Just a suggestion.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 01, 2021, 01:36:53 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 01, 2021, 10:42:32 AM
There's this thing where the first European campus of the Chinese Fudan university is going to be opened in Budapest, as in the case with other Chinese investments in the country, sponsored by Hungarian taxpayers.

To add insult to injury, it is poised to overtake most of an area designated for a "Student Town" where it was meant to build affordable student halls and such, now instead it will host this quite very expensive Chinese state uni.

The affected councils (city and district) are opposition-controlled and of course ain't happy. They have decided to fight back with what's in their jurisdiction - renaming streets and parks in and around the planned campus:
- Dalai Lama Road
- Uighur Martyrs Road
- Free Hong Kong Road

etc

The important thing is that Soros is still out. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on June 01, 2021, 03:42:11 PM
In regard to paying to be China's little European bitch, I am quite certain the deal is that Orbán and his vassals get a cut. Feudalism is expensive.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 01, 2021, 08:00:19 PM
I think what is unique to China are -

- One child policy
- the cultural norm where the responsibility to take care of the elderly rests with the children, rather than the government

The One child policy was implemented for almost 40 years.  Imagine if you were a child born during those 40 years.  You and your spouse are both single children.  You are culturally expected to take care of both of your parents (4 people) and yourself (2 people).  Now, the government wants you to have three children (3 people).  So even if you have 2 income streams, you have 9 mouths to feed.  Not to mention the substantial challenge of taking care of three children with both you and your spouse working "996 hours".  This is a Mainland term referring to the new normal where people work 6 days a week from 9am to 9pm each day. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on June 01, 2021, 11:09:37 PM
The high cost of living and the expectation of a middle class lifestyle together with more self-confident and edcuated women is what lowers China's birthrate. Just raising the limit will not do anything. I understand that there are policies flanking this raised limit, but I doubt that it will be enough.

China has been below replacement for at least two decades now and the sex imbalance from the one-child policy where parents favored boys must also play a role.

Looks likely that the population will soon stagnate and then decline, with the working age population declining faster than the overall population.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 02, 2021, 04:41:37 AM
Ahead of this Friday's anniversary:
Quote'No political story allowed': Hong Kong broadcaster falls silent on sensitive subjects
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/1d139a81f5cff143203af5c791de23e5ea5cd19a/0_332_5000_3001/master/5000.jpg?width=1020&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=118bb6e02de1f3dbb47dfe6958e4f50a)
People gather at Hong Kong's Victoria Park in 2020 to mark the Tiananmen Square protests. This year, media coverage will look very different. Photograph: Vincent Yu/AP
Employees at public broadcaster RTHK voice fears for future amid gradual erosion of media freedoms
Helen Davidson
Helen Davidson in Taipei
@heldavidson
Wed 2 Jun 2021 00.14 BST

Normally at this time of year Hong Kong media are bustling to prepare coverage of Friday's anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre which, before Covid restrictions hit, usually included a huge vigil in Victoria Park. The event is illegal in China but had been proudly held in Hong Kong for decades.

But this year journalists at the respected public broadcaster RTHK say they've been told to stand down.

"We were informed that no political story is allowed," says Emily*, an RTHK employee who, along with others interviewed for this article, asked for anonymity to speak freely. "We think it's kind of funny because what isn't a political story now?"


After mass pro-democracy protests in 2019, the Hong Kong government's worsening crackdown on dissent over the past two years has also targeted press freedom. Once ranked 18th in the world press freedom index, Hong Kong now sits at 80th.

RTHK is bearing the brunt, and many in the industry fear those in power intend to turn it into a propaganda department. Chris Yeung, head of the Hong Kong Journalists Association, says the patience the government and pro-establishment camp once had for RTHK's editorial freedom has run out.

"They can no longer tolerate a government department giving critical and at times embarrassing coverage in their editorial content," Yeung says, adding the government wants to "rectify" the broadcaster.

Its fate is a warning to the rest of the industry, says Emily. "If RTHK becomes propaganda, it's also the death of Hong Kong media."

'No room for proper journalism'

Established in 1928, RTHK is an award-winning, public broadcaster. But over recent months it has been accused of bias, being too independent, and taking the side of pro-democracy protesters instead of upholding charter obligations to promote "one country two systems".

RTHK has been publicly criticised by officials and attacked in Chinese state media. Journalists have been suspended, doxed, and harassed into resignation over their questioning. A producer has been prosecuted over an act of journalistic research, and new rules announced last week will require all non-civil service government employees, including RTHK staff, to pledge allegiance to the government.

After a highly critical government review found RTHK to have deficiencies in editorial management and accountability in February, the then director, Leung Ka-wing, left before the end of his contract, farewelled without thanks. A least five other senior staff have also resigned. Leung was replaced by former deputy home affairs secretary Patrick Li, a career bureaucrat with no journalism experience, who told legislators he intends to be hands on with the broadcaster, with plans for programs promoting government policies, and mainland media collaborations.


One of Li's first acts was to establish vetting and approval processes for all story pitches, including proposed interviewees, which is what Emily says meant the Tiananmen coverage was rejected.

Another RTHK employee, Ann* says the system is "destructive" to the editorial team. "We don't know what to do or what story can be aired ... There is no room for proper journalism."

Based on the panel's guidelines, RTHK has cut back or cancelled at least 10 programs – including an already-aired segment about the Tiananmen anniversary last week – and deleted entire online archives.

Free airtime is now being filled by Hong Kong's chief executive, Carrie Lam, in a daily program reportedly discussing the government's overhaul of the electoral system.

"The charter states that RTHK is editorially independent. It does not say that an individual programme production unit is editorially independent," Li told Legco in March.

The changes, which Emily describes as an "earthquake", appear concentrated in RTHK's public affairs division, home to more historically "rebellious" programs, such as the canned satirical show Headliner, and current affairs program Hong Kong Connection.

In a statement, RTHK management said three episodes of Hong Kong Connection, Hong Kong Stories, and LegCo Review "were not impartial, unbiased and accurate", and were cancelled because they had been made before the vetting system was in place, and "could not be rectified before production".

Hong Kong Connection has won multiple awards this year, including for an episode investigating police involvement in the notorious Yuen Long subway attacks.


The morning after the show won one of the awards, a producer, Bao Choy, was convicted and fined for accessing a publicly available database as part of her investigative work for the episode.

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/6bbce494523072fc461e35640550b4ce6e443905/278_21_3220_1932/master/3220.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3916864de53ee822833b8efe0c01ea98)
Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK) reporter Bao Choy arrives at the West Kowloon court in April. Photograph: Jérôme Favre/EPA

The pervasive assumption is that Apple Daily, the pro-democracy tabloid owned by jailed media tycoon and government critic Jimmy Lai, is next in line. Apple Daily's editor in chief, Ryan Law, told Agence France-Presse recently he was facing "the greatest crisis since I took up the post over three years ago".

As well as the prosecution of Lai, freezing of his assets, and raids on the newsroom, Hong Kong's police commissioner has accused Apple Daily of creating hatred and dividing society, while pro-Beijing media has called for it to be shut down.


An Apple Daily employee, Andy*, says: "There've been ... rumours we might be shut down before July, some say maybe before the election in September or the end of the year. We simply don't know what to believe."

Lai recently wrote to his staff from prison, telling them to stay strong but to also take care – journalism was now a far more dangerous job.

"It definitely affects the morale here," Andy says. "Not many of us have a personal relationship with Mr Lai but we all know he's the icon of Apple Daily."

'Correcting' the media

Government powers over the media are increasing, with the national security law (NSL) imposed last year, and a vaguely defined proposed law against "fake news", which critics say government and police will be allowed to define.

"I think we're at the early stage of their move to so-called correct the media scene," he says. "Also Carrie Lam has promised to improve the media system – that implies there are other things, in say regulating the media."


Lam and her government maintain they respect press freedom and that Hong Kong's press will not be targeted if they don't break the law, but the lack of clearly defined offences in the NSL, and police raids on Apple Daily and Stand News have created a well-documented chilling effect.

"Beijing and the Hong Kong government hold all the cards," says Apple Daily's Andy. "They have the legal means, the financial resources, to take over the scene of media.

"Those they can control they control, those they can't control they use brute force or put fear into."

In response to questions, RTHK denied there was a ban on Tiananmen anniversary coverage, and said there was no intention to have the broadcaster do the same work as the government information office, and that all editorial decisions were in the hands of the broadcaster's director, Li.

"According to the charter, RTHK is editorially independent and is immune from commercial, political and/or other influences. The producers' guidelines stipulates that 'there can never be editorial autonomy without responsibility, freedom without restraint'," a spokesperson said.


A government spokesperson did not answer questions about how "fake news" would be defined, instead saying any law enforcement actions taken are based on evidence and according to the law, with no relation to someone's political stance, background or occupation.

"It would be contrary to the rule of law to suggest that people or entities of certain sectors or professions could be above the law."

For Emily at RTHK, her eyes are on this week. On Thursday last week the government banned the vigil for the second year – ostensibly because of the pandemic, but it's likely people will mark it anyway, and media will try to cover it, because that's their job.

"I think June 4 is the point where we'll see the death of the media: if no one can go to the memorial or if those who report will be arrested or punished, then we'll understand the freedom is gone."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on June 02, 2021, 04:50:39 AM
Well, I mean, duh.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on June 02, 2021, 04:57:03 AM
(https://images.footballguys.com/Dropbox/Random%20Shots%20-%20Shared/shockedface.tlj.png)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 02, 2021, 04:11:53 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 01, 2021, 03:42:11 PM
In regard to paying to be China's little European bitch, I am quite certain the deal is that Orbán and his vassals get a cut.

Say it ain't so.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 02, 2021, 07:37:08 PM
They were allowed to hold their Tiananmen commemoration activities for more than 20 years. 

And see what they did in 2019.

They wanted their all or nothing gambit.  They got it :contract:

As for me, I am going to obey in advance.  I will make sure that my wife and I don't wear black on that day.  I have booked a restaurant for dinner in the mall just below my flat.  Meaning I won't appear in Causeway Bay (where they used to hold their vigils) or in the streets.  Police have announced that they will massively mobilise.  Three thousand police will be stationed in the park where they hold their vigil, and anybody who appeared there to commemorate will be arrested.  Last year they only arrested the dozen or so pan-democratic leaders, but this year police have announced that they will arrest everybody.  There will be a heavy police presence all over HK.  I have taken steps to remove my family from the streets so that I won't be in their way  :bowler:

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 02, 2021, 07:39:55 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 02, 2021, 04:41:37 AM


Hong Kong Connection has won multiple awards this year, including for an episode investigating police involvement in the notorious Yuen Long subway attacks.[/b]

The morning after the show won one of the awards, a producer, Bao Choy, was convicted and fined for accessing a publicly available database as part of her investigative work for the episode.



This is dishonest reporting.  That "publicly available" database requires anybody who searches the records to pledge that they search the database for "traffic related" purposes.  Obviously she lied when she signed that pledge.  She was fined for like US$700 for lying. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 02, 2021, 07:44:51 PM
How does that make the reporting dishonest?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 02, 2021, 07:48:28 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 02, 2021, 07:44:51 PM
How does that make the reporting dishonest?

It skipped the reason why she was fined, only stressing the "publicly available" part. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 02, 2021, 07:59:05 PM
Quote from: Zanza on June 01, 2021, 11:09:37 PM
The high cost of living and the expectation of a middle class lifestyle together with more self-confident and edcuated women is what lowers China's birthrate. Just raising the limit will not do anything. I understand that there are policies flanking this raised limit, but I doubt that it will be enough.

China has been below replacement for at least two decades now and the sex imbalance from the one-child policy where parents favored boys must also play a role.

Looks likely that the population will soon stagnate and then decline, with the working age population declining faster than the overall population.

I know someone who owns a factory on the Mainland.  He told me he used to hire 20k+ workers.  But now he can make do with a bit more than a thousand.  He bought robots.  He needed mostly engineers and technicians to maintain and calibrate the robots now. 

So the population decline may not be as disastrous as it seems. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 02, 2021, 08:11:29 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 02, 2021, 07:48:28 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 02, 2021, 07:44:51 PM
How does that make the reporting dishonest?

It skipped the reason why she was fined, only stressing the "publicly available" part.

Seems like they got the reason right.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 02, 2021, 09:07:54 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 02, 2021, 08:11:29 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 02, 2021, 07:48:28 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 02, 2021, 07:44:51 PM
How does that make the reporting dishonest?

It skipped the reason why she was fined, only stressing the "publicly available" part.

Seems like they got the reason right.

Yeah, you can't call thugs "thugs" in the press, when the thugs are running things.  It's so typically Chinese that publicly-available databases, funded by the public, can only be accessed if you swear you won't tell anyone what is in them (and will be taken to court if you do tell everyone what they could find out for themselves).  It's thugs all the way down.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on June 13, 2021, 04:31:36 AM
https://www.verdict.co.uk/alibabas-logistics-arm-moves-south-to-hainans-free-trade-port/

QuoteAlibaba transport logistics arm to "Hawaii of China" as Hong Kong faces increased competition

Cainiao, the logistics arm of Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba, announced that it plans to launch a pilot supply chain zone in cooperation with the government of Hainan, helping the southern Chinese island become a free-trade zone similar to Hong Kong.

At the Cainiao 2021 Global Smart Logistics Summit on Thursday, the company's CEO, Wan Lin, and the director of Hainan's International Economic Development Bureau, Han Shengjiang, jointly announced that they would work together to build a digital intelligence supply chain zone on the island, which is known as the "Hawaii of China".

The Alibaba-owned company said it would support Hainan's free-trade port by giving it access to its own global logistics capabilities and expertise in digital logistics technology. The aim is to attract more than 1,000 duty-free merchants, especially those that have not yet entered the China market.

The initiative will also see the establishment of a smart service centre and global supply chain centre in Hainan, which Cainiao said will allow customers to complete a pickup within 70 seconds at designated locations, half the time it currently takes.

Last year, China announced plans to turn Hainan, a tropical island in the south of China and a popular holiday destination, into a free-trade port similar to Hong Kong. The plan outlined by Beijing stated that income tax rates for selected individuals and companies would be lowered to 15% and relaxed visa requirements for tourists and business travellers would be implemented.

The island province with a population of 9.5m will also enjoy loosened restrictions on trade, investment, capital flows and the movement of people and data by 2035, with the goal of gaining "strong international influence" by the middle of the century.

Given that the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, which had always served as China's largest free-trade port, has been facing intensified pressure from Beijing, many have speculated that the Chinese government is making long-term plans to replace Hong Kong with Hainan.

In response to these speculations, Chinese officials have insisted on multiple occasions that Hainan becoming a free-trade port will complement Hong Kong's status and not threaten it. "The free-trade area of Hainan will have a different status, unlike that of Hong Kong," deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission Lin Nianxiu said after Beijing announced its plans. "It will focus on industries different from those in Hong Kong," he added.

The past year has seen Hainan rapidly expand its international reach. Cainiao said that as part of its cooperation with the island, it plans to upgrade Hainan's global freight network, including the expansion to more than 800 international cargo flights by the end of 2021. This news comes two months after the company launched seven weekly charter flights between Singapore and Hainan.

Amid rising pressure from Chinese authorities and fierce competition, Alibaba is facing a strenuous time. The ecommerce company suffered a net loss of 5.47bn yuan ($848.5m) in its fourth-quarter after it was hit with a $2.8bn antitrust fine recently.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 13, 2021, 05:14:37 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 02, 2021, 07:59:05 PM
Quote from: Zanza on June 01, 2021, 11:09:37 PM
The high cost of living and the expectation of a middle class lifestyle together with more self-confident and edcuated women is what lowers China's birthrate. Just raising the limit will not do anything. I understand that there are policies flanking this raised limit, but I doubt that it will be enough.

China has been below replacement for at least two decades now and the sex imbalance from the one-child policy where parents favored boys must also play a role.

Looks likely that the population will soon stagnate and then decline, with the working age population declining faster than the overall population.

I know someone who owns a factory on the Mainland.  He told me he used to hire 20k+ workers.  But now he can make do with a bit more than a thousand.  He bought robots.  He needed mostly engineers and technicians to maintain and calibrate the robots now. 

So the population decline may not be as disastrous as it seems. 
This is a misconception. One I used to share.
The vital commodity is not workers to produce things. It's consumers and tax payers.
For the latter I suppose things could be fixed by ramping up taxes on the rich. Good luck with that in China. Even once that's done there's huge potential for instability.
For the former ... That's tough. UBI?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 19, 2021, 05:31:46 PM
Lots of rumours that Dong Jingwei, a senior Chinese intelligence figure has defected to the US which, if true, would be the most senior Chinese defector. I think it actually started on Chinese social media but I'm not sure.

Interesting to be back in a world where intelligence agencies probably are looking at each other more on a state-to-state basis and looking for defectors than their focus on terrorist networks etc. I know there's been spies in quite senior positions caught in Australia, New Zealand and, I think, Canada.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 20, 2021, 09:57:46 PM
QuoteQuarantined South Koreans' passports accidentally burned after Chinese workers mistook them for garbage

The documents collected from a group of 31 visitors were put in a bag for sterilisation but workers misidentified the contents in it and sent the package to a waste treatment plant for incineration

Chinese officials apologised to South Korea for the fiasco and Seoul has expedited the process to issue new passports to the affected people

Passports belonging to a group of 31 South Koreans who arrived in China earlier this month were accidentally burned by sanitation workers after they mistook the travel documents for rubbish, local media reported on Saturday.

The incident happened after they were put into a three-week mandatory quarantine at a hotel in Beijing on June 4, Yonhap news agency and Hankook Ilbo daily reported.

Chinese authorities had collected their passports to make photocopies and complete the isolation paperwork.


https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3138013/quarantined-south-koreans-passports-mistakenly-burned-after
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on June 20, 2021, 10:19:05 PM
I am not super familiar with this kind of thing, but should you really EVER surrender your passport to a foreign government?

Is there ever a reason for them to actually physically take it?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on June 20, 2021, 10:52:00 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2021, 10:19:05 PM
I am not super familiar with this kind of thing, but should you really EVER surrender your passport to a foreign government?

Is there ever a reason for them to actually physically take it?
If you apply for a visa, you typically have to give or send them your passport. I used to have two passports when I still traveled a lot for business as countries like India, Russia or China take quite some time to send your passport back. Worst was with some African countries.
If you want a US visa, you also have to leave your passport at the consulate or embassy. But they send it to you within a few days.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 20, 2021, 11:34:12 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 20, 2021, 10:19:05 PM
I am not super familiar with this kind of thing, but should you really EVER surrender your passport to a foreign government?

Is there ever a reason for them to actually physically take it?

You have to do it all the time.

My wife's passport got stolen when she applied for US visa. You see, she had to send it to the consulate (couriered, for safety) and when they were done with it they MAILED it back. And - what a coincidence - the day it was delivered all the mailboxes at our condo got robbed. So she didn't go to the US as planned.

But yeah, you hand over your passport all the time when you travel or want visas. It can be pretty nerve wracking.

Anyways, the reason for them to physically take it is: they (whatever country it is) make the rules, and you don't have much of a choice, you just follow along.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on June 21, 2021, 12:12:48 AM
When I got my new passport a couple of years ago, the consulate asked if I wanted to pick it up when it's ready or to have it sent to me. I said I'd pick it up. Of course they sent it via unregistered letter instead.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on June 21, 2021, 12:44:49 AM
Quote from: Syt on June 21, 2021, 12:12:48 AM
When I got my new passport a couple of years ago, the consulate asked if I wanted to pick it up when it's ready or to have it sent to me. I said I'd pick it up. Of course they sent it via unregistered letter instead.
Inside Germany,  picking it up in person is the only option. With Covid now, it takes months to get an appointment for that apparently.  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on June 21, 2021, 01:27:46 AM
This reminds me I should get my passport renewed... old one expired in 2017 but never got around to get a new one since all my travel has been within Schengen...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on June 21, 2021, 01:53:34 AM
Quote from: celedhring on June 21, 2021, 01:27:46 AM
This reminds me I should get my passport renewed... old one expired in 2017 but never got around to get a new one since all my travel has been within Schengen...

I lost my passport in 2013. It was my only form of ID since Germany at the time didn't issue ID cards to expats. So I checked the requirements for getting a replacement - the usual stuff, plus proof that you reported the old passport lost. Problem was: birth certificate. So I sent an email to the registry office of the town where I was born, explaining the dilemma.
"Please send us a copy of your ID."
"Well ... that's the issue (if you had read my email). But here's my student ID - expired for 7 years - my facebook page, and my profile on the company website. Sorry, that's all I've got."
"Ok, we'll send it to you."
:blink:

That felt way too easy. They didn't even charge me, saying that it wouldn't be worth it considering it would be an international transfer (which within the SEPA area should not be an issue ...). When I handed in my papers to the clerk at the consulate he was surprised, because apparently it's not often that everyone has all the documents, in the right order, in original and copy, for their paperwork. :smarty:

Anyways, I got my passport, and an ID card (since now the issue those, and I can keep it in my wallet) a short 3 months later.

Not that anyone ever asks me for ID in Austria except when picking up a package at the post office, or doing a Covid test. :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 21, 2021, 03:25:40 AM
I've had to order my birth certificate to get my kids passport.
I didn't need any ID to prove who I was. Just had to know details of where and when I was born and my parents names.
Seems here that I could order anyone's birth certificate.

Quote from: Jacob on August 22, 2013, 12:02:48 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 22, 2013, 11:40:10 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 22, 2013, 10:58:49 AM
As well, somewhat unusually, Bo has denied himself guilty of wrongdoing.
Is it a crime in China to deny your guilt?

Nope, but as I understand it, it's pretty uncommon for many trials (as it apparently is in Japan). Things usually don't go to trial until the outcome is established (whether through evidence, confession, or fiat from higher up).
Yep. Huge misconception about Japanese law that many people have here. You always see cries about its mega high conviction rate as if this proves something is rotten. But it's basically as you say, they don't take things to court unless they're certain.
There are dodgy things in the Japanese legal system of course but not that.
Doesn't help that things are based on civil rather than common law too, which confuses Americans no end.

You see similar misunderstandings from nutters in the UK about the EU: the number of single candidate unanimous elections. They don't get the democracy happened before the vote.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on June 21, 2021, 07:39:40 AM
Huh, I did not know that.

I always kind of thought the state taking your identity papers was a pretty serious move.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 21, 2021, 07:53:09 AM
Quote from: Berkut on June 21, 2021, 07:39:40 AM
Huh, I did not know that.

I always kind of thought the state taking your identity papers was a pretty serious move.

When I renewed my British and Canadian passports, I also had to hand them in. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on June 21, 2021, 07:58:27 AM
Handing in or mailing in your passport sounds like the kind of nonsense you have to do in 2021 because no one can be bothered to do things differently, even though the technology exists nowadays to make things simpler for everyone.  There isn't a competing chain of German embassies out there advertising less hassle, is there?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 21, 2021, 10:13:35 AM
Quote from: Tyr on June 21, 2021, 03:25:40 AM
Yep. Huge misconception about Japanese law that many people have here. You always see cries about its mega high conviction rate as if this proves something is rotten. But it's basically as you say, they don't take things to court unless they're certain.
There are dodgy things in the Japanese legal system of course but not that.
Doesn't help that things are based on civil rather than common law too, which confuses Americans no end.

You see similar misunderstandings from nutters in the UK about the EU: the number of single candidate unanimous elections. They don't get the democracy happened before the vote.

You're responding to a post from 2013  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 21, 2021, 10:21:36 AM
Wow. Woops. :lol:
Whilst I was replying to a current one too so no idea how that happened.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 21, 2021, 11:40:04 AM
Has your opinion changed over the past 8 years?  :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on June 21, 2021, 12:33:05 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 21, 2021, 07:58:27 AM
Handing in or mailing in your passport sounds like the kind of nonsense you have to do in 2021 because no one can be bothered to do things differently, even though the technology exists nowadays to make things simpler for everyone.  There isn't a competing chain of German embassies out there advertising less hassle, is there?

If eliminating hassle was the objective, there are indeed better ways.  And that is likely the way the private sector would go in order to reduce cost.  But of course the main objective is to reduce fraud and so I am not sure the private sector solution you imply would be the best solution.


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on June 22, 2021, 09:57:26 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 21, 2021, 07:58:27 AM
Handing in or mailing in your passport sounds like the kind of nonsense you have to do in 2021 because no one can be bothered to do things differently, even though the technology exists nowadays to make things simpler for everyone.  There isn't a competing chain of German embassies out there advertising less hassle, is there?

This whole business of putting passports, IDs, driving licences in the mail as a regular thing shocked me a bit coming to the UK from Hungary. Sure, it's a hassle to go to the county office, bring my papers and have the renewal/request done there but FFS my life could be stolen from under me if the wrong person get their hands on the letter with my papers. Especially in a country where a credit card is a valid form of identification.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on June 22, 2021, 10:01:17 AM
Quote from: Syt on June 21, 2021, 12:12:48 AM
When I got my new passport a couple of years ago, the consulate asked if I wanted to pick it up when it's ready or to have it sent to me. I said I'd pick it up. Of course they sent it via unregistered letter instead.

:lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on June 23, 2021, 07:28:01 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57578926

QuoteApple Daily: Hong Kong pro-democracy paper announces closure

Hong Kong's largest pro-democracy paper Apple Daily has announced its closure, in a blow to media freedom in the city.

The tabloid's offices were raided last week over allegations that several reports had breached a controversial national security law.

Police detained the chief editor and five other executives, and company-linked assets were frozen.

The publication had become a leading critic of the Hong Kong and Chinese leadership.

The Apple Daily management said that "in view of staff members' safety", it had decided "to cease operation immediately after midnight" - making Thursday's publication the final printed edition.

UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the paper's closure was a "chilling blow to freedom of expression in Hong Kong".

The digital version of the 26-year old paper will no longer be updated after midnight.

A separate announcement by publisher Next Digital thanked the readers for their "loyal support" as well as its journalists, staff and advertisers.

The closure comes after sustained pressure on the paper from the authorities.

Apple Daily founder Jimmy Lai, who has long been a critic of the Chinese Communist Party, is already in jail on a string of charges.

Last Thursday, some 500 police officers raided the publication's newsroom, saying its reports had breached the city's new national security law, which makes undermining the government a criminal offence.

The arrests struck fear in employees at the paper and a number quit the publication soon after.

An editorial staff member at the paper described the feeling of unease as "having a knife over your head". "If you don't leave by yourself, you may be held criminally responsible," she told BBC Chinese.

A current affairs reporter for Apple Daily said after last week's raid: "I had mixed feelings. On one hand, I was angry at the ruthlessness of the regime. I was also sad that Hong Kong might not have Apple Daily but I also felt fear."

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on June 23, 2021, 10:32:10 AM
Did Mono get the last issue?  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 23, 2021, 03:28:26 PM
The lamps are going out all over China. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on June 23, 2021, 03:39:56 PM
Quote from: grumbler on June 23, 2021, 03:28:26 PM
The lamps are going out all over China. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.

Never say never.  If one thing I've learned in watching world events is that when change happens, it can happen incredibly quickly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 23, 2021, 05:32:53 PM
I don't think Xi is quite as secure as we sometimes think. But yeah, China is going in a dark direction at the moment (and there's no guarantee that any Xi successor would be better).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 07:26:31 PM
Apple Daily is a lot more than a newspaper.  It is a political player.  Evidence:

QuoteHong Kong media boss distances himself from contentious Hunter Biden-China report
By Reuters Staff

(Reuters) - Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai said he personally had "nothing to do with" a report on alleged China business links of the son of U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden, but admitted funds from his private firm had been used to fund it.

Lai, a prominent democracy advocate in Hong Kong and a staunch China critic, said on Twitter that he was "sorry" that his flagship newspaper, Apple Daily, had been implicated in an article by U.S. media outlet NBC.

In the article, NBC alleged that a 64-page document circulating on the internet about the purported connections of Hunter Biden to the Chinese Communist Party and his business dealings in China had "questionable authorship and anonymous sourcing".

The article cited the co-author of the "intelligence document", Christopher Balding, as saying the document had been "commissioned by Apple Daily", which the paper said in a statement were "false allegations".

Balding, an academic, didn't immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

While Lai said that his newspapers had not personally commissioned the 64-page document, he admitted that his senior executive, Mark Simon, had "worked with the project".

"Mark used my private company's money to reimburse for the research he requested. It's only US$10,000 so he didn't have to have my approval," Lai added on Twitter.

"I know it is hard for anyone to believe that I didn't know about it and my integrity is damaged."

In a statement posted online, Simon said he had resigned because of the incident, and apologised for having "allowed damage to Jimmy on a matter he was completely in the dark on".

He gave no further details when contacted by Reuters.

The Apple Daily recently published two articles on Hunter Biden and his ties to a Taiwanese businessman who the paper said was a purported broker "enabling Hunter Biden's deals in mainland China over a decade".

But the paper said in a statement that these stories had been carried out by its own journalists in Taiwan with independent verification of their own findings, and were separate from the 64-page document.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-politics-idUSKBN27G089

Jimmy Lai wanted Trump to win in 2020 because he, and a lot of HK rioters, believed that Trump would be tough on China.  So he made stuff up about Hunter Biden. 



I also want to ask, if say CNN openly called for China and Russia to sanction the US, would the US government just sit idly by and allow it to continue to make such calls?  That's what Apple Daily did, call for sanctions against China and Hong Kong. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 23, 2021, 07:40:10 PM
A lot of anti-CCP Chinese were pro-Trump and anti-Biden because they thought Trump would be tougher on China. Now that Biden is making Xi uncomfortable, and doing so unilaterally, many of those anti-CCP Chinese are changing their tune.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 07:45:13 PM
Jimmy Lai, Apple Daily, and a lot of HK people essentially revolted in 2019/20.  And they lost, completely.  Do they really expect that things will just continue as they are as though the revolt didn't happen? 

They knew that they engaged in an all or nothing gambit two years ago.  They went ahead, and lost.  They made their bed, and now have to sleep in it. 

Good riddance. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 08:12:21 PM
Quote from: grumbler on June 23, 2021, 03:28:26 PM
The lamps are going out all over China. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.

Apple Daily is a lamp?  Give me a break.  Aside from the lies on Hunter Biden to discredit his father, Apple Daily has a track record of "inventing news".

Many years ago, there was an ordinary HK family.  The wife murdered her two sons by throwing them out the window, literally.  She then followed and jumped to her death.  Apparently the husband had an affair. 

The Apple Daily reporter who covered this incident gave the husband US$640, on the condition that he would hire a prostitute and allow Apple Daily to take a picture of him grabbing the prostitute.  The goal is to create sensation to make the husband look as inhuman as possible. 

Jimmy Lai admitted that his corporation paid the bribes and made up the story. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 23, 2021, 09:20:11 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 07:45:13 PM
Jimmy Lai, Apple Daily, and a lot of HK people essentially revolted in 2019/20.  And they lost, completely.  Do they really expect that things will just continue as they are as though the revolt didn't happen? 

They knew that they engaged in an all or nothing gambit two years ago.  They went ahead, and lost.  They made their bed, and now have to sleep in it. 

Good riddance. 
Something tells me this guy wasn't one of the rioters.
Though if there was a millionaire amongst them that's pretty awesome.
Rioters! = protestors

Quote

I also want to ask, if say CNN openly called for China and Russia to sanction the US, would the US government just sit idly by and allow it to continue to make such calls?  That's what Apple Daily did, call for sanctions against China and Hong Kong.

Sections of the media in other countries does this sort of thing all the time. It was particularly common at the time of the Iraq war.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on June 23, 2021, 09:28:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 07:26:31 PM
I also want to ask, if say CNN openly called for China and Russia to sanction the US, would the US government just sit idly by and allow it to continue to make such calls?

Yes, the US government would in fact sit idly by and allow it to continue.

It's bizarre to me that you would even ask that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2021, 09:32:42 PM
Quote from: Tyr on June 23, 2021, 09:20:11 PM
Sections of the media in other countries does this sort of thing all the time. It was particularly common at the time of the Iraq war.

Really?  I can't recall a single instance of someone in the US, or the larger West for that matter, calling for sanctions to be imposed by other countries against their own officials.

But I also can't imagine how it would be illegal.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 09:53:19 PM
From wiki -

QuoteThe newspaper inclined toward supporting Donald Trump during the 2020 United States presidential election, which was believed to relate to his China-related policies. The paper published several opinion pieces, arguing "a vote for Trump is not only for the Americans' own interests, but it is also one that is for the survival of the free world", complaining the "leftist ideology permeated in Western academia and journalism".[106] The position of the newspaper and Jimmy Lai was echoed by many democracy activists in Hong Kong, Taiwan and exiled Chinese dissidents living in America.[107]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Daily

Do they really care about democracy?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 23, 2021, 10:24:03 PM
Note this was before trump turned against democracy.
That he was a cunt riding roughshod over established norms I don't expect to be too apparent to the average man in the street of HK.

Weird ad hom though. They supported trump in the election ergo its right they be banned....

Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2021, 09:32:42 PM
Quote from: Tyr on June 23, 2021, 09:20:11 PM
Sections of the media in other countries does this sort of thing all the time. It was particularly common at the time of the Iraq war.

Really?  I can't recall a single instance of someone in the US, or the larger West for that matter, calling for sanctions to be imposed by other countries against their own officials.

But I also can't imagine how it would be illegal.
The  UK media has long been packed with stuff about how Iraq was an illegal war, Blair should face international sanctions and trial, etc...
Largely born out of the far left and the anti war movement but the mainstream media often picks up on it too as it gives them a nice stick to whack labour with.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on June 23, 2021, 10:30:22 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 09:53:19 PM
From wiki -

QuoteThe newspaper inclined toward supporting Donald Trump during the 2020 United States presidential election, which was believed to relate to his China-related policies. The paper published several opinion pieces, arguing "a vote for Trump is not only for the Americans' own interests, but it is also one that is for the survival of the free world", complaining the "leftist ideology permeated in Western academia and journalism".[106] The position of the newspaper and Jimmy Lai was echoed by many democracy activists in Hong Kong, Taiwan and exiled Chinese dissidents living in America.[107]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Daily

Do they really care about democracy?

What is your point?

That it is ok to stifle the press if they say stuff you don't like?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 10:33:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 23, 2021, 10:30:22 PM


What is your point?

That it is ok to stifle the press if they say stuff you don't like?

The point is, they are far from saints and they are not an objective paper seeking the truth. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on June 23, 2021, 10:56:31 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 10:33:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 23, 2021, 10:30:22 PM


What is your point?

That it is ok to stifle the press if they say stuff you don't like?

The point is, they are far from saints and they are not an objective paper seeking the truth. 

That is either true, not true, or something in between.

And in any of those cases, it doesn't actually matter as to whether or not it is ok to shut them down for not towing the CCCP line in Hong Kong, which we all know is the reason they were destroyed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 11:00:59 PM
I still get plenty of media questions and complaints from anti-government media and websites.  Apple Daily is the largest riot-supporting paper, but is not the only one.  The others are still around. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 24, 2021, 05:31:40 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 07:45:13 PM
Jimmy Lai, Apple Daily, and a lot of HK people essentially revolted in 2019/20.  And they lost, completely.  Do they really expect that things will just continue as they are as though the revolt didn't happen? 

They knew that they engaged in an all or nothing gambit two years ago.  They went ahead, and lost.  They made their bed, and now have to sleep in it. 

Good riddance.

Let me fix that for you and translate into what it really means without censorship:

Jimmy Lai, Apple Daily, and a lot of HK people essentially exercised the free speech rights guaranteed under the Basic Law.  And they lost, completely.  Did they really expect the neo-Maoists in charge of the Mainland to respect one country two systems? 

They knew that they engaged in an all or nothing gamble in trusting the PRC to keep its word back in 1997.  They went ahead, and lost.  Their bed was made for them, and now have to sleep in it. 

Sad end for a once great free city.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: FunkMonk on June 24, 2021, 07:41:03 AM
Seriously Mono just go fuck yourself.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 24, 2021, 11:00:03 AM
Quote from: Berkut on June 23, 2021, 09:28:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 07:26:31 PM
I also want to ask, if say CNN openly called for China and Russia to sanction the US, would the US government just sit idly by and allow it to continue to make such calls?

Yes, the US government would in fact sit idly by and allow it to continue.

It's bizarre to me that you would even ask that.

In countries run by thugs, it is commo for the gullible in the population to believe that every other country in the world is secretly also run by thugs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 24, 2021, 11:11:52 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 10:33:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 23, 2021, 10:30:22 PM


What is your point?

That it is ok to stifle the press if they say stuff you don't like?

The point is, they are far from saints and they are not an objective paper seeking the truth.

And the people shutting them down are not saints and are not objective politicians seeming justice.  So what is your point?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 24, 2021, 11:13:21 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 11:00:59 PM
I still get plenty of media questions and complaints from anti-government media and websites.  Apple Daily is the largest riot-supporting paper, but is not the only one.  The others are still around.

The fact that some non-thug-supporting papers haven't been shut down by the thugs doesn't mean that it is okay that the thugs shut one of them down.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 24, 2021, 11:14:25 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on June 24, 2021, 07:41:03 AM
Seriously Mono just go fuck yourself.

I think that it is helpful for us to know what the useful idiots in the PRC have to say.  Shutting them off here doesn't change anything.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 24, 2021, 11:15:59 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on June 24, 2021, 07:41:03 AM
Seriously Mono just go fuck yourself.

Sad end for a once great poster.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on June 24, 2021, 11:23:02 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on June 24, 2021, 11:15:59 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on June 24, 2021, 07:41:03 AM
Seriously Mono just go fuck yourself.

Sad end for a once great poster.

:huh:

His 'sad end' was years ago.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on June 24, 2021, 11:28:57 AM
He lives in the world he lives in. don't know why anyone is surprised after all these years. Personally i think Mono adds more then detracts.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 24, 2021, 11:31:30 AM
Quote from: grumbler on June 24, 2021, 11:00:03 AM
In countries run by thugs, it is commo for the gullible in the population to believe that every other country in the world is secretly also run by thugs.

Mono is not gullible though. He clearly understands what's going on and is making a choice to align with the authorities.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 24, 2021, 11:33:42 AM
Quote from: HVC on June 24, 2021, 11:28:57 AM
He lives in the world he lives in. don't know why anyone is surprised after all these years. Personally i think Mono adds more then detracts.

Yeah, I enjoy Mono as long as he's not shilling for the authoritarians for whom he works.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on June 24, 2021, 12:02:04 PM
Quote from: garbon on June 24, 2021, 11:23:02 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on June 24, 2021, 11:15:59 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on June 24, 2021, 07:41:03 AM
Seriously Mono just go fuck yourself.

Sad end for a once great poster.

:huh:

His 'sad end' was years ago.

Same issue as current discussion.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on June 24, 2021, 12:34:13 PM
Quote from: HVC on June 24, 2021, 11:28:57 AM
Personally i think Mono adds more then detracts.

I disagree but that's nothing new.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 24, 2021, 12:51:42 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 24, 2021, 11:31:30 AM
Quote from: grumbler on June 24, 2021, 11:00:03 AM
In countries run by thugs, it is commo for the gullible in the population to believe that every other country in the world is secretly also run by thugs.

Mono is not gullible though. He clearly understands what's going on and is making a choice to align with the authorities.

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 24, 2021, 12:56:59 PM
Quote from: grumbler on June 24, 2021, 12:51:42 PM
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

I don't think it's due to stupidity nor maliciousness directly. I believe it's simply that Mono has decided what side his bread is buttered on, and goes all in, heart and soul. It's like he's a patriot, except he's not patriotic towards a nation but towards power. He has elevated being a lickspittle to the postion of supreme virtue. I suspect it's the result of pure moral cowardice.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on June 24, 2021, 01:00:16 PM
It is the type of moral cowardice that survives and endures. Like some Tsarist Bureaucrat who lived to eventually become People's Commissar of Railways.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 24, 2021, 01:04:04 PM
I think Mono's always been about the idea that you submit to the order/leadership that prevails whoever it is and that's it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on June 24, 2021, 01:05:29 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 24, 2021, 01:04:04 PM
I think Mono's always been about the idea that you submit to the order/leadership that prevails whoever it is and that's it.

There is some principle to it. Like law and order and not blocking roadways and disrupting civilization or whatever. An anti-chaos position.

I think if it was 1949 he would have been fanatically anti-Mao until order was established.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on June 24, 2021, 01:23:55 PM
What if it was 2,000 years ago, would he have supported Wang Mang?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on June 24, 2021, 01:27:26 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 23, 2021, 10:33:05 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 23, 2021, 10:30:22 PM


What is your point?

That it is ok to stifle the press if they say stuff you don't like?

The point is, they are far from saints and they are not an objective paper seeking the truth.


I don't think you understand what a newspaper is...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on June 24, 2021, 01:51:08 PM
Quote from: The Brain on June 24, 2021, 01:23:55 PM
What if it was 2,000 years ago, would he have supported Wang Mang?

Like everybody, he would Wang Chung tonight.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on June 24, 2021, 03:33:37 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 24, 2021, 01:51:08 PM
Quote from: The Brain on June 24, 2021, 01:23:55 PM
What if it was 2,000 years ago, would he have supported Wang Mang?

Like everybody, he would Wang Chung tonight.

I've always found Wang Chung's scepticism and rationality attractive.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Savonarola on July 16, 2021, 10:19:07 AM
From the BBC:

QuoteHong Kong: US to issue warning on business risks

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/AB27/production/_119451834_gettyimages-1215098878.jpg)
The US is set to issue a warning to firms over the risks of doing business in Hong Kong after China imposed a new national security law there last year.

In a new advisory, the White House will tell multinational firms that they are subject to the laws and that their people could be arrested under them.

Other risks may include having to surrender data to Chinese authorities.

President Biden said on Thursday that "the situation in Hong Kong is deteriorating".

Ahead of the business advisory being issued by the departments of State, Treasury, Commerce and Homeland Security, the president warned: "The Chinese government is not keeping its commitment that it made, how it would deal with Hong Kong".

The national security law was introduced in Hong Kong last year after protests over an extradition law turned violent and evolved into a broader anti-China and pro-democracy movement. It makes it easier to punish protesters and reduces the city's autonomy.

The advisory is expected to cover several other areas including freedom of the press, data privacy and sanctions.


Jeff Moon, a former assistant US trade representative who worked on Hong Kong policy during the Obama administration, told the BBC: "I think this is quite serious.

"I think it's a reflection of the dramatic changes that have gone on in Hong Kong."

He pointed out that hundreds of American companies have a presence in Hong Kong. According to the American Chamber of Commerce in the city, about 280 companies have regional headquarters there.

Businesses with operations or staff in Hong Kong should consider potential reputational and legal risks, the advisory is expected to say.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/14767/production/_119451838_gettyimages-1233825319.jpg)
According to the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, about 280 companies have regional headquarters there.


Mr Moon added that although Hong Kong is an incredibly valuable economic hub, the so-called "one country, two systems" principle which has come under pressure means its appeal to foreign firms will have changed.

Although the advisory will not recommend businesses withdraw from the area, Beijing said it would follow up with a "firm response" to any action taken by Washington.

"We urge the US side to stop interfering in the Hong Kong issue and China's internal affairs in any form," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a news conference on Friday.

The advisory comes several days after the US warned businesses about having links to China's Xinjiang region, citing alleged abuses of the mostly Muslim Uyghur minority group and surveillance there.

American firms that still have supply chain and investment ties in the region were told they "could run a high risk of violating US law", it said.

China has denied previous allegations that the region's Uyghur population has been subjected to human rights abuses.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on July 16, 2021, 12:41:49 PM
US companies are willing to accept some level of jurisdictional risk, as evidenced by the fact that many operate on the mainland.  But some fraction of them locate in HK because of the perceived jurisdictional safety and those will likely leave.  Some are there because of the perception that the  commercial courts are more reliable than on the mainland, perception that has taken a hit given the open strongarming of the judiciary by Beijing. 

The real problem HK is going to have going forward is why go there instead of Shanghai or some other 1st rank Chinese city.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 22, 2021, 02:41:08 PM
Excellent reporting by AP:
https://apnews.com/article/business-religion-china-only-on-ap-f89c20645e69208a416c64d229c072de
QuoteRoom for 10,000: Inside China's largest detention center
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 27, 2021, 10:42:01 PM
It is very likely that the number of casualties from the flood in Henan is much much higher than official numbers.

Outside military units were brought in to clear up the damage, rather than using the local police. The local police, meanwhile, are being sent door to door to make it clear to people not to speak to foreign looking reporters as they're the type to "make up lies" to hurt the motherland.

Major tunnels were flooded with hundreds of cars completely submerged.

People who've gone to the subway stations after the traditional seven days to grieve for their parents/ children/ other family who went to work and never came back on the day of the floods have been unceremoniously told they couldn't do that by the police.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on July 28, 2021, 12:37:36 AM
Pff. There's a big element of why here too. Natural disasters hir everywhere. And China isn't big on suing the government.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 28, 2021, 09:53:55 AM
Quote from: Tyr on July 28, 2021, 12:37:36 AM
Pff. There's a big element of why here too. Natural disasters hir everywhere. And China isn't big on suing the government.

Why?

The government response was terrible.

- The forecast was available, but no action were taken beforehand. The subway wasn't shut down, even as it was flooding, because no one with authority thought to shut it down. I.e. the mayor said "we are keeping open, we can't impact the economy due to bad weather", and no one above him in the party hierarchy said otherwise. Conversely, the subway manager followed the mayor's lead, and so on all the way down to individual subway employees.

- The highway tunnel that flooded with all the cars was fully backed up because it was a toll tunnel, and the staff manning the gates had left so the cars couldn't exit.

- A dam was opened (to relieve pressure because it was already in vulnerable state due to cracks), but no warning was given to people downstream. An entire village was washed away, essentially, and the people had no warning to flee.

Meanwhile, Xi is in Tibet and hasn't taken any action.

Basically, the authorities failed to prepare and are failing to respond except to cover up the magnitude of the consequences, focusing on making sure no one tallies up how bad it was or calls them out for their failures.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on July 28, 2021, 10:07:49 AM
Quote from: Jacob on July 28, 2021, 09:53:55 AM
Quote from: Tyr on July 28, 2021, 12:37:36 AM
Pff. There's a big element of why here too. Natural disasters hir everywhere. And China isn't big on suing the government.

Why?

The government response was terrible.

- The forecast was available, but no action were taken beforehand. The subway wasn't shut down, even as it was flooding, because no one with authority thought to shut it down. I.e. the mayor said "we are keeping open, we can't impact the economy due to bad weather", and no one above him in the party hierarchy said otherwise. Conversely, the subway manager followed the mayor's lead, and so on all the way down to individual subway employees.

- The highway tunnel that flooded with all the cars was fully backed up because it was a toll tunnel, and the staff manning the gates had left so the cars couldn't exit.

- A dam was opened (to relieve pressure because it was already in vulnerable state due to cracks), but no warning was given to people downstream. An entire village was washed away, essentially, and the people had no warning to flee.

Meanwhile, Xi is in Tibet and hasn't taken any action.

Basically, the authorities failed to prepare and are failing to respond except to cover up the magnitude of the consequences, focusing on making sure no one tallies up how bad it was or calls them out for their failures.

This cannot come as a surprise. This is how any government that has gone out of its way to control the means of communicating information is going to act - it is for exactly *this* purpose that they insist on having that control to begin with!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 28, 2021, 01:44:14 PM
Quote from: Berkut on July 28, 2021, 10:07:49 AM
This cannot come as a surprise. This is how any government that has gone out of its way to control the means of communicating information is going to act - it is for exactly *this* purpose that they insist on having that control to begin with!

Not a surprise, no. It has always been a feature of the CCP, but it seems particularly acute under Xi. In the medium to long term, I'm certain it will have a negative impact on the course of the Chinese state and people.

In other news, it's appear that China has the Delta variant in a number of cities - potentially arriving at an airport and spreading that way. It appears that in spite of the strict measures - or perhaps because of them - some people are have started to habitually circumvent them where convenient (paging Dorsey).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 28, 2021, 01:56:42 PM
On the foreign reporters point - statement from the BBC:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7TB1zxXoA49qVy?format=png&name=small)

Seems to be some possibly local CCP figures whipping up popular anger at the foreign press. Posting updates on where the BBC team are is pretty concerning behaviour.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 28, 2021, 01:58:50 PM
The immediate action by the CCP and the Chinese government was to have the local police go door to door to tell people not to speak to foreign journalists because they're going to spread lies to hurt China.

This was not a one-off social media post, it was a deliberate and sustained policy to focus on how reporting on the events by foreign media is a conspiracy against China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 28, 2021, 02:04:59 PM
Yeah - I think that might just been seen as BAU by the BBC or other entities reporting in China (a large number of British correspondents are now largely having to base themselves in Taipei or somewhere else in the region). I think getting netizens to be posting about their whereabouts and an angry crowd looking for them are new.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on August 06, 2021, 05:20:33 AM
Speaking of support for the One China policy...is it now time to dissolve HK's Olympic team?  :hmm:

(and yes, I would agree/concede that it is kinda sketchy that Puerto Rico has its own team as well)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2021, 10:17:50 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 06, 2021, 05:20:33 AM
Speaking of support for the One China policy...is it now time to dissolve HK's Olympic team?  :hmm:

(and yes, I would agree/concede that it is kinda sketchy that Puerto Rico has its own team as well)

Yet another reason why PR needs to become a state.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 06, 2021, 10:40:13 AM
The HK Olympic team does make me laugh. "Hong Kong - China".
Some real insecurities on show there.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 10:41:13 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 06, 2021, 10:40:13 AM
The HK Olympic team does make me laugh. "Hong Kong - China".
Some real insecurities on show there.
:lol:

Yes. I think China have also formally complained about the BBC coverage of "Chinese Taipei" which I think is the agreed name for Taiwan in the Olympics. I feel like the BBC should just reply "fine we'll call them Taiwan" :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on August 06, 2021, 10:52:56 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 10:41:13 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 06, 2021, 10:40:13 AM
The HK Olympic team does make me laugh. "Hong Kong - China".
Some real insecurities on show there.
:lol:

Yes. I think China have also formally complained about the BBC coverage of "Chinese Taipei" which I think is the agreed name for Taiwan in the Olympics. I feel like the BBC should just reply "fine we'll call them Taiwan" :lol:

I wish the ROTW would all just get on board with just telling the Chinese government, politely, to go fuck themselves whenever they bitch about this kind of crap.

The only thing China has to hold over everyone is their market, and that only works when the threat can be targeted - "If you don't do what we want, we will freeze you out!" only works if you can pick and choose who you freeze out.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 06, 2021, 10:57:35 AM
Yep.
Also an opportunity for Vietnam or whoever to go "you can call us whatever the hell you want if you invest"

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 10:41:13 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 06, 2021, 10:40:13 AM
The HK Olympic team does make me laugh. "Hong Kong - China".
Some real insecurities on show there.
:lol:

Yes. I think China have also formally complained about the BBC coverage of "Chinese Taipei" which I think is the agreed name for Taiwan in the Olympics. I feel like the BBC should just reply "fine we'll call them Taiwan" :lol:

Just for covering Taiwanese athletes at all?

Chinese Taipei is a weird compromise. Works precisely because in English and French there's no distinction between Chinese ala the country and Chinese ala the people. It dates back a while though so it is something where I could expect China to start kicking up shit again - I guess that's a brightside of the Chinese player beating the Taiwanese in badminton.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 11:01:42 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 06, 2021, 10:57:35 AM
Just for covering Taiwanese athletes at all?

Chinese Taipei is a weird compromise. Works precisely because in English and French there's no distinction between Chinese ala the country and Chinese ala the people. It dates back a while though so it is something where I could expect China to start kicking up shit again - I guess that's a brightside of the Chinese player beating the Taiwanese in badminton.
No for the use of "Chinese Taipei". As I say my understanding is that is the compromise name the IOC have agreed - incluidng China. It doesn't indicate independence in the way that Taiwan does, but isn't full-blown Republic of China.

Admittedly I love the refugee team but just scanning the medal table, every time I see ROC I immediately think "Taiwan's doing very well" :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on August 06, 2021, 11:17:17 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 11:01:42 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 06, 2021, 10:57:35 AM
Just for covering Taiwanese athletes at all?

Chinese Taipei is a weird compromise. Works precisely because in English and French there's no distinction between Chinese ala the country and Chinese ala the people. It dates back a while though so it is something where I could expect China to start kicking up shit again - I guess that's a brightside of the Chinese player beating the Taiwanese in badminton.
No for the use of "Chinese Taipei". As I say my understanding is that is the compromise name the IOC have agreed - incluidng China. It doesn't indicate independence in the way that Taiwan does, but isn't full-blown Republic of China.

Admittedly I love the refugee team but just scanning the medal table, every time I see ROC I immediately think "Taiwan's doing very well" :lol:

Same/ I don't really understand Russia's punishment if all their athletes are still counted together.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on August 06, 2021, 12:16:18 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 11:01:42 AM
Admittedly I love the refugee team but just scanning the medal table, every time I see ROC I immediately think "Taiwan's doing very well" :lol:

I'm glad I'm not the only one. :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on August 06, 2021, 12:25:23 PM
The whole "ROC" thing is a pathetic "punishment".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 06, 2021, 01:06:18 PM
:yes: on all fronts.

I guess ROC medals won't count for Russia on the all time table? But. Pff.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:08:26 PM
What's the ROC Russia thing?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Neil on August 06, 2021, 01:13:55 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:08:26 PM
What's the ROC Russia thing?
ROC = Russian Olympic Committee.  It's a way to allow their doped-up athletes to compete without breaking the ban on Russian participation, as punishing the athletes as a whole for the doping scheme that they participated in was deemed unfair. 

Really, it's a huge propaganda boost to the regime, as every Russian medal is able to be shown as a glorious victory against a world that is oppressing Russia, and they can point to the ban as proof of the perfidy of the Olympic Committee. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:18:16 PM
FFS - I thought that was the Refugee Olympics team and was really pleased how well they're doing (when I wasn't pleasantly surprised to see the Republic of China doing so well) :bleeding: :blush:

Truly an onion of incomprehension :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2021, 01:23:44 PM
It is really dumb. It is Russia, so I don't see the point of it all.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on August 06, 2021, 01:28:26 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:18:16 PM
FFS - I thought that was the Refugee Olympics team and was really pleased how well they're doing (when I wasn't pleasantly surprised to see the Republic of China doing so well) :bleeding: :blush:

Truly an onion of incomprehension :(

You really thought that the refugees were 5th in the medal table?

Until when does the ban last? They already had to pull something similar to this ROC stuff in the last winter olympics, right?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:34:50 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 06, 2021, 01:28:26 PM
You really thought that the refugees were 5th in the medal table?
I was surprised at how little attention the good news/heart-warming story of the summer was getting.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2021, 01:37:00 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:34:50 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 06, 2021, 01:28:26 PM
You really thought that the refugees were 5th in the medal table?
I was surprised at how little attention the good news/heart-warming story of the summer was getting.

One would think Putin's political exiles do nothing but train for the Olympics. Surely the sheer number of athletes involved at least caused you to question this narrative :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on August 06, 2021, 01:38:57 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:34:50 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 06, 2021, 01:28:26 PM
You really thought that the refugees were 5th in the medal table?
I was surprised at how little attention the good news/heart-warming story of the summer was getting.

That's an impressive level of self-delusion.  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:41:18 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2021, 01:37:00 PM
One would think Putin's political exiles do nothing but train for the Olympics. Surely the sheer number of athletes involved at least caused you to question this narrative :lol:
Look - arguably there were many occassions when I should have put this together earlier. But somehow none of them did until you all kept talking about ROC and Russia :P

QuoteThat's an impressive level of self-delusion.  :P
A blissful and fundamentally happier level of self-delusion. I was a happy pig and now I'm an unhappy human :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on August 06, 2021, 01:42:13 PM
Quote from: Neil on August 06, 2021, 01:13:55 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:08:26 PM
What's the ROC Russia thing?
ROC = Russian Olympic Committee.  It's a way to allow their doped-up athletes to compete without breaking the ban on Russian participation, as punishing the athletes as a whole for the doping scheme that they participated in was deemed unfair. 

Really, it's a huge propaganda boost to the regime, as every Russian medal is able to be shown as a glorious victory against a world that is oppressing Russia, and they can point to the ban as proof of the perfidy of the Olympic Committee.

OMG A NEIL SIGHTING
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on August 06, 2021, 01:43:58 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2021, 01:37:00 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:34:50 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 06, 2021, 01:28:26 PM
You really thought that the refugees were 5th in the medal table?
I was surprised at how little attention the good news/heart-warming story of the summer was getting.

One would think Putin's political exiles do nothing but train for the Olympics. Surely the sheer number of athletes involved at least caused you to question this narrative :lol:

The refugee Olympic team is composed mostly of Syrians, with Iran and South Sudan being the next countries of origin by number of people, and they all come the Middle East and Africa (except from one Venezuelan), there's not a single Russian exile in the team.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on August 06, 2021, 02:08:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:18:16 PM
FFS - I thought that was the Refugee Olympics team and was really pleased how well they're doing (when I wasn't pleasantly surprised to see the Republic of China doing so well) :bleeding: :blush:

Truly an onion of incomprehension :(

Oh, I thought you were making a statement by calling the Russian Olympic Committee Team refugees (from Putin's drugs regime etc.)

I actually hadn't heard of the Refugee Olympic Team until this thread. :Embarrass:

Although, the Refugee Team would be ROT, not ROC wouldn't they?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on August 06, 2021, 02:13:34 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on August 06, 2021, 02:08:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:18:16 PM
FFS - I thought that was the Refugee Olympics team and was really pleased how well they're doing (when I wasn't pleasantly surprised to see the Republic of China doing so well) :bleeding: :blush:

Truly an onion of incomprehension :(

Oh, I thought you were making a statement by calling the Russian Olympic Committee Team refugees (from Putin's drugs regime etc.)

I actually hadn't heard of the Refugee Olympic Team until this thread. :Embarrass:

Although, the Refugee Team would be ROT, not ROC wouldn't they?

Their official acronym is EOR, the French version of ROT.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 02:14:05 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on August 06, 2021, 02:08:35 PM
Although, the Refugee Team would be ROT, not ROC wouldn't they?
:lol: Once again, I cannot emphasise enough how little thought I gave this  :Embarrass:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on August 06, 2021, 02:17:15 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 06, 2021, 02:13:34 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on August 06, 2021, 02:08:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 01:18:16 PM
FFS - I thought that was the Refugee Olympics team and was really pleased how well they're doing (when I wasn't pleasantly surprised to see the Republic of China doing so well) :bleeding: :blush:

Truly an onion of incomprehension :(

Oh, I thought you were making a statement by calling the Russian Olympic Committee Team refugees (from Putin's drugs regime etc.)

I actually hadn't heard of the Refugee Olympic Team until this thread. :Embarrass:

Although, the Refugee Team would be ROT, not ROC wouldn't they?

Their official acronym is EOR, the French version of ROT.

so the refugee team was given a name that sounds like the depressed winnie the poo donkey?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on August 06, 2021, 02:17:49 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 06, 2021, 02:14:05 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on August 06, 2021, 02:08:35 PM
Although, the Refugee Team would be ROT, not ROC wouldn't they?
:lol: Once again, I cannot emphasise enough how little thought I gave this  :Embarrass:


:lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 06, 2021, 03:11:22 PM
ROC is the polite name the Olympic Committee chose for Roided Out Cheats
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 06, 2021, 04:20:40 PM
On the one hand sure. Fuck Russia. Cheating arse holes.
But you do have to be fair to those Russian athletes who had nothing to do with this and let them compete.
If only the old Olympics could be possible in the modern day - anyone can show up and take part. Their country is a fun side note rather than a big deal.
Obviously in the modern world this would be a disaster that takes years to get through.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on August 06, 2021, 05:15:06 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 06, 2021, 04:20:40 PM
On the one hand sure. Fuck Russia. Cheating arse holes.
But you do have to be fair to those Russian athletes who had nothing to do with this and let them compete.
If only the old Olympics could be possible in the modern day - anyone can show up and take part. Their country is a fun side note rather than a big deal.
Obviously in the modern world this would be a disaster that takes years to get through.

Let them compete but don't track to a country on medal table?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 10, 2021, 05:03:54 PM
Apparently China won the Olympics.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4266780

Note they spelled Chinese Taipei wrong.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on August 11, 2021, 02:52:12 AM
From bad faith, politically motivated prosecution to ridiculously petty social control measures.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/11/michael-spavor-verdict-canada-china-trial-court

QuoteMichael Spavor trial: China court sentences Canadian to 11 years for spying

Justin Trudeau has condemned as "absolutely unacceptable and unjust" China's jailing of Canadian entrepreneur Michael Spavor for 11 years on charges of spying.

Canada's prime minister said: "The verdict for Mr Spavor comes after more than two-and-a-half years of arbitrary detention, a lack of transparency in the legal process, and a trial that did not satisfy even the minimum standards required by international law."

The verdict, delivered by a court in Dandong on Wednesday morning, comes as Beijing steps up pressure ahead of a Canadian court ruling on whether to hand over Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou to face US criminal charges.

Spavor's arrest in 2018 came just days after Meng's arrest in Canada in connection with possible violations of trade sanctions on Iran, drawing accusations by critics of "hostage diplomacy".

Spavor, and fellow Canadian Michael Kovrig, have spent 975 days in detention, and were tried separately in secret earlier this year. In March China's state media tabloid, the Global Times, said Spavor – who lived near the North Korean border and arranged cultural exchanges – was accused of supplying intelligence to Kovrig, a former diplomat turned analyst for the International Crisis Group. Canadian authorities have said the charges are baseless.

On Wednesday, the court in Dandong announced Spavor had been found guilty of spying and illegally providing state secrets to other countries. He was sentenced to 11 years in jail, confiscation of personal property, and fined 50,000 yuan ($7,715), according to a statement by the Liaoning Dandong intermediate people's court.

Canadian ambassador Dominic Barton said he was disappointed with the long sentence. "We condemn in the strongest possible terms this [decision] which was rendered without due process or transparency."

Barton said he was able to have a consular visit with Spavor, who thanked his supporters and said he was in good spirits but wanted to get home.

The court had also ordered Spavor be deported but it was not clear when this would occur. Barton told the media they had interpreted the judgment to mean deportation after the sentence, but "hopefully there is a way for him to get home a little earlier".

Beijing-based lawyer Mo Shaoping told Reuters that deportation generally takes place after the person has finished serving the sentence but may happen earlier for special cases.

Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, a senior fellow at the University of Ottawa's graduate school of public and international affairs, said there was precedent in a similar 2014 case, in which Canadian couple Kevin and Julia Garratt were detained, charged and sentenced in China after Canada extradited Su Bin, a suspected spy, to the US. They were released and deported in 2017 soon after Su cut a deal in the US.

"[Spavor's case] may be a signal that the Chinese are willing to deport him at whatever time the Canadian government creates the right conditions for him to leave – in other words Meng being released to return to China," she said.

Spavor has two weeks to appeal against the ruling, but China's notoriously opaque justice system rarely grants appeals and routinely posts conviction rates of more than 99.9%.

...

Also as mentioned in hyperlink in that article, separately China also upgraded prison term for a Canadian citizen on drug charge to death sentence as conclusion to his appeal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/11/china-to-ban-karaoke-songs-with-content-that-endangers-national-unity

QuoteChina to ban karaoke songs with 'illegal content' that endangers national unity

China will establish a blacklist of karaoke songs to ban those containing "illegal content" from karaoke venues across the country starting from 1 October, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

The ministry said banned content would include that which endangers national unity, sovereignty or territorial integrity, violates state religious policies by propagating cults or superstitions, or which encourages illegal activities such as gambling and drugs.

Content providers to karaoke venues will be responsible for auditing the songs, the ministry said on its website on Tuesday, adding that China has nearly 50,000 entertainment outlets with a basic music library of more than 100,000 songs, making it difficult for venue operators to identify illegal tracks.

The ministry said it encouraged content providers to supply "healthy and uplifting" music to these venues.

China heavily regulates and scrubs content that includes violence, pornography, or politically sensitive commentary from social media and websites and has in recent months punished livestreaming to video platforms for hosting content it deems "low taste".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on August 11, 2021, 07:57:34 AM
ore signs that foreigners need to GTFO of China, and stay out.  There are non-corrupt countries where they can visit or work.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2021, 09:01:29 AM
My former employer had an office in China where they outsourced some of analytics.  I heard that they're closing it, and the rumors are that political risk was the reason.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 11, 2021, 09:32:21 AM
Personally I would not do business in China.

Might go to visit family, though :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2021, 09:44:10 AM
Honestly, I thought even twenty years ago that doing business in China was just blind short-sighted greed.  I think China has always viewed foreign businessmen as useful idiots.  Their belligerent behavior in recent times may have killed the goose that was quietly laying them golden eggs all this time.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 11, 2021, 10:10:46 AM
I followed a China law blog for some time  - it really got into the details of doing business in China.  For many years, China was steadily improving as a viable place to do business, a trend that has recently gone into sharp reverse.

It's silly to say that the US (or any other nation) should simply not do business; the scale of existing business is so massive that it isn't feasible.  OTOH there are going to be hard decisions that will have to made about the nature and level of commercial engagement, especially in areas like opening and maintaining overseas offices, posting expatriate personnel, and listing on Chinese exchanges. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 11, 2021, 11:02:54 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 11, 2021, 09:44:10 AM
Honestly, I thought even twenty years ago that doing business in China was just blind short-sighted greed.  I think China has always viewed foreign businessmen as useful idiots.  Their belligerent behavior in recent times may have killed the goose that was quietly laying them golden eggs all this time.

I think this is reductive. There was a genuine opportunity for things to turn out differently than they did. It was not a foregone conclusion that Chinese leadership would evolve as it did and make the decisions they did.

China is not a monolith - in spite of central leadership's efforts to make it seem as such.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2021, 11:35:28 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 11, 2021, 11:02:54 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 11, 2021, 09:44:10 AM
Honestly, I thought even twenty years ago that doing business in China was just blind short-sighted greed.  I think China has always viewed foreign businessmen as useful idiots.  Their belligerent behavior in recent times may have killed the goose that was quietly laying them golden eggs all this time.

I think this is reductive. There was a genuine opportunity for things to turn out differently than they did. It was not a foregone conclusion that Chinese leadership would evolve as it did and make the decisions they did.

China is not a monolith - in spite of central leadership's efforts to make it seem as such.
I was thinking of it in those terms at the time, not retroactively.  The issues with intellectual property were always there even before China's turn towards open belligerence.  In a modern economy, doing business with someone who won't respect your intellectual property and can't be compelled to is like having a gun store sell an arsenal to a gang of robbers.  It may be a very lucrative transaction initially, but it may wind up backfiring on you rather quickly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 11, 2021, 11:37:41 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 11, 2021, 11:02:54 AM
I think this is reductive. There was a genuine opportunity for things to turn out differently than they did. It was not a foregone conclusion that Chinese leadership would evolve as it did and make the decisions they did.

China is not a monolith - in spite of central leadership's efforts to make it seem as such.
I totally - agree.

The slight quibble I would have is that I do think ideology matters with China (I do actually think they're communists for example) and I wonder if people failed to join the dots until it became really obvious, perhaps because they were naive, or didn't believe in ideology, or didn't believe in politics v economics. Because it seems to me - and this may just be retrospect - that after Tiananmen it was clear that China as party-state was not going to loosen control by the party or brook challenges to that control. At the same time they were obviously encouraging a breakneck development on capitalist lines and the emergence of foreign businesses operating in China and also enormous Chinese companies.

I don't know if this is retrospective but it feels like part of what is happening is a re-assertion of party-state control of the economy. The foreign companies is a small-ish part of that compared to the way China is currently disciplining/subordinating the Chinese tech sector. And I wonder if people should have made that connection sooner - and certainly feel that it was probably likely once it became clear that (I don't know what Xi stood for at the time) Bo was one of the leading candidates. It's been clear for at least a decade that was the direction of travel but seems to be continuously re-discovered.

As I say it might be hindsight but it feels like there was a lot of handwaving as explanation from a really strong example of the party showing its control over social and political matters, but liberalising on economics. And maybe it was just sort of 90s/post-cold war hubris that the economy would drive or at least overpower political decisions; so not that China would become some western style democracy but that it would probably become a giant red Singapore. There were other failures of analysis on those lines and I think there's an argument that part of what's happening globally right now is the return of the politics - or the return of the primacy of politics over economics - and that's actually only going to intensify as we move to net zero (which is going to be a Chinese-led project).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 11, 2021, 11:48:05 AM
QuoteThe slight quibble I would have is that I do think ideology matters with China (I do actually think they're communists for example)
Statists 100%.
But communists?
Fascist is closer to what they've become.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on August 11, 2021, 11:51:26 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 11, 2021, 11:37:41 AM
And maybe it was just sort of 90s/post-cold war hubris that the economy would drive or at least overpower political decisions; so not that China would become some western style democracy but that it would probably become a giant red Singapore. There were other failures of analysis on those lines and I think there's an argument that part of what's happening globally right now is the return of the politics - or the return of the primacy of politics over economics - and that's actually only going to intensify as we move to net zero (which is going to be a Chinese-led project).

This was absolutely me at the time. I thought a powerful Chinese Capitalist Class would ensure that the business of China would become business and even lead to some liberalism. But obviously I was wrong.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on August 11, 2021, 11:53:38 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 11, 2021, 11:48:05 AM
QuoteThe slight quibble I would have is that I do think ideology matters with China (I do actually think they're communists for example)
Statists 100%.
But communists?
Fascist is closer to what they've become.

I mean they are not proponents of a stateless society without private property but they do like the dictatorship of the proletariat party. Speak loudly and carry a big people's stick.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 11, 2021, 12:05:49 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 11, 2021, 11:48:05 AM
Statists 100%.
But communists?
Fascist is closer to what they've become.
I disagree I think the ideology has developed and will continue to develop.

But I think it is fundamentally communist - especially the idea of a party state maintaining control while the economy develops. It's - to nick a phrase I quite like - possibly just a long NEP - it may even last a century or two.

Capitalists are allowed to do what they want in most of the economy but the core bits are retained by the state, political power is not shared with anyone (especially not capitalists who are the most dangerous social class) and the state can and will crackdown when it thinks there is a political or social need to do so.

It could fall apart if the party state is internally divided or becomes corrupted by capitalism (and I think that's where the Xi/Bo punishiment of corruption comes in) and I think both of those are probably quite real risks. And this doesn't mean it eventually transitions to communism, but I think there is an argument for it - in the context of Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Deng - being ideologically motivated and taking that ideology seriously. Which is why they were never going to let untrammeled freedom for capitalism if it started to affect core parts of the economy or would cause a social/political challenge.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on August 11, 2021, 12:11:41 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 11, 2021, 11:48:05 AM
QuoteThe slight quibble I would have is that I do think ideology matters with China (I do actually think they're communists for example)
Statists 100%.
But communists?
Fascist is closer to what they've become.


They've taken a hard turn left since Xi came to power.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 11, 2021, 12:12:15 PM
QuoteI disagree I think the ideology has developed and will continue to develop.

But I think it is fundamentally communist - especially the idea of a party state maintaining control while the economy develops. It's - to nick a phrase I quite like - possibly just a long NEP - it may even last a century or two.

Capitalists are allowed to do what they want in most of the economy but the core bits are retained by the state, political power is not shared with anyone (especially not capitalists who are the most dangerous social class) and the state can and will crackdown when it thinks there is a political or social need to do so.

This setup isn't particularly communist. As I say they're far more fascist than anything. Private business does what it wants but it must do what the state tells it to do.
The key distinguishing factor with the way China is going is the embracing of rabid ethno-nationalism. The old communist 55 ethnicities thing is very much falling by the wayside beneath a very definite there is only one valid type of Chinese doctrine.

Quote from: Razgovory on August 11, 2021, 12:11:41 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 11, 2021, 11:48:05 AM
QuoteThe slight quibble I would have is that I do think ideology matters with China (I do actually think they're communists for example)
Statists 100%.
But communists?
Fascist is closer to what they've become.


They've taken a hard turn left since Xi came to power.
Eh?
Under Xi they've gone sharply right.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 11, 2021, 03:43:02 PM
This is why left/right isn't a useful descriptor for international politics.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2021, 04:16:31 PM
Suppression of/conflict with internal ethnic minorities is not something totally alien to rock solid communist regimes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on August 11, 2021, 04:28:28 PM
Tyr, you sound like you are moving into "no true leftist" territory.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 11, 2021, 07:36:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 11, 2021, 11:35:28 AM
I was thinking of it in those terms at the time, not retroactively.  The issues with intellectual property were always there even before China's turn towards open belligerence.  In a modern economy, doing business with someone who won't respect your intellectual property and can't be compelled to is like having a gun store sell an arsenal to a gang of robbers.  It may be a very lucrative transaction initially, but it may wind up backfiring on you rather quickly.

There's a whole lot of business with China that does not particularly involve intellectual property.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 11, 2021, 11:19:09 PM
Things that are happening:

Xi is attempting to encourage the Chinese people to have more kids; the official ideal number is 3, now. Unfortunately for Xi, him setting that target has not resulted in increased birth rates - the costs of raising kids and giving them the best chance they can have is prohibitive. Getting your kid into a good school (relative to your wealth and social class) is crucial and incredibly competitive.

So... to solve this, Xi has just made cram-schools illegal. That should take some pressure off, is apparently the thought, and people won't have to spend money on it. Of course, the result is that cram school instruction now happens one-on-one (to prevent snitching), making it even more expensive for some (whose kids then get more advantages) while others have to resign themselves to knowing their kids have less of a chance to get into the good schools and have a good life.

It still remains to be seen if this will have any positive impacts on birth rates in China.

In another educational development, apparently in Shanghai they've taken English language skills off the entrance exams for the good junior high and high schools, replacing it with exams on "Xi thought."

Also, covid is spreading again in China and they're using the same super harsh control measures (which, among other things lead to starvation deaths) while cracking down on any reporting of what is happening.

This may all seem like much of a muchness to folks viewing China as monolithic stereotype, but from my POV it's looking a bit like China is heading towards a Xi lead Cultural revolution v 2.0 soon.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 12, 2021, 12:09:19 AM
Business as usual. Nothing to see here. /mono
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2021, 02:13:02 AM
I think Tyr has a point.  It's hard to see the PRC as communist more than in name,  The NEP is not a good comparison - that was a more about a tactical withdrawal from attempts to exert power over the countryside, freeing up small scale trading, and ceding power back to labor union organizations in the cities; that has not been the policy in China which has moved in the other direction.  Instead we have a nationalist one party dictatorship with an modernizing agenda and a corporatist, state capitalist economic model.  If it's not fascist it certainly seems to rhyme.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 12, 2021, 01:51:27 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 11, 2021, 11:19:09 PM
This may all seem like much of a muchness to folks viewing China as monolithic stereotype, but from my POV it's looking a bit like China is heading towards a Xi lead Cultural revolution v 2.0 soon.
Interesting FT story that the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the CCP's anti-corruption watchdog, is leading a crack down on the drinking culture. In part because of social media outrage about sexual harassment and assault in the workplace.

Separately the culture ministry is planning to ban songs from karaoke that spread "harmful information" including inspiring into drugs, gambling or religion - or songs that were deemed dangerous to Chinese sovereignty.

It is interesting as with the crackdown on private tuition and tech companies there are a couple of things that are striking. One is that there seems to be a bit of a "working towards Xi" element going on where bureaucracies like those above are starting to take measures before required by central bureaucracy.

But also - which I think is interesting in what I was saying before, but also in the context of Xi's promises on net zero - it's clear growth is no longer the priority. And in CCP history of China, my understanding is they've now completed all of Deng's agenda (reform and opening; building a moerately prosperous society) - so are moving onto Xi's which are, I believe, "realisation of socialist modernisation" by 2035 and "national rejuvenation" by 2050 (which is - perhaps relatedly? - also the point the PLAN aims to have global coverage).

But Deng's era has been formally closed and it feels like a real transition in the way the state is not prioritising growth or business friendliness as they once were.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 12, 2021, 03:33:25 PM
Yeah. Xi also talked trash about Tencent, causing their stockprices to take a beating. It looks like he's been going after a number of national champion type companies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 12, 2021, 03:42:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2021, 04:16:31 PM
Suppression of/conflict with internal ethnic minorities is not something totally alien to rock solid communist regimes.
Sure.
But making it a central policy pillar and being obsessed with the greatness and purity (cultural rather than ethnic in the Chinese case) of your one people?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on August 12, 2021, 03:48:12 PM
It's kind of fascinating that most of these "strong man" types like Xi appear to be deeply disturbed people ridden with insecurities. Don't get me wrong, they are obviously extremely cunning and dangerous, but sick in the head, none the less.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on August 12, 2021, 05:30:05 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 12, 2021, 03:42:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2021, 04:16:31 PM
Suppression of/conflict with internal ethnic minorities is not something totally alien to rock solid communist regimes.
Sure.
But making it a central policy pillar and being obsessed with the greatness and purity (cultural rather than ethnic in the Chinese case) of your one people?

We called it "The Soviet Union" back in the day.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 12, 2021, 05:38:30 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 12, 2021, 05:30:05 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 12, 2021, 03:42:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2021, 04:16:31 PM
Suppression of/conflict with internal ethnic minorities is not something totally alien to rock solid communist regimes.
Sure.
But making it a central policy pillar and being obsessed with the greatness and purity (cultural rather than ethnic in the Chinese case) of your one people?

We called it "The Soviet Union" back in the day.
They didn't do this.
At all.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 12, 2021, 07:08:16 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 12, 2021, 05:38:30 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 12, 2021, 05:30:05 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 12, 2021, 03:42:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2021, 04:16:31 PM
Suppression of/conflict with internal ethnic minorities is not something totally alien to rock solid communist regimes.
Sure.
But making it a central policy pillar and being obsessed with the greatness and purity (cultural rather than ethnic in the Chinese case) of your one people?

We called it "The Soviet Union" back in the day.
They didn't do this.
At all.

Russians didn't suppress non Russian populations within the Soviet Union?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on August 13, 2021, 04:11:46 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 12, 2021, 02:13:02 AM
I think Tyr has a point.  It's hard to see the PRC as communist more than in name,  The NEP is not a good comparison - that was a more about a tactical withdrawal from attempts to exert power over the countryside, freeing up small scale trading, and ceding power back to labor union organizations in the cities; that has not been the policy in China which has moved in the other direction.  Instead we have a nationalist one party dictatorship with an modernizing agenda and a corporatist, state capitalist economic model.  If it's not fascist it certainly seems to rhyme.

The thing is that a lot of leftists often argue that every failed communist experiment wasn't communist, it was fascist. Oh no, the Soviet Union wasn't communist, they didn't do communism correct, when we do it we will do it correct.

So yeah, what China does can be seen as a lot of the same corporativism that the fascists did, but the fascists were very much inspired by socialist ideas when they did their stuff in the 30's. Mussolini being an old socialist and NSDAP having that S in the name and so on. So the ChiComs going full circle does not stop them from being commies, even if it rhymes with the fascists.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 13, 2021, 04:34:23 AM
Quote
The thing is that a lot of leftists often argue that every failed communist experiment wasn't communist, it was fascist. Oh no, the Soviet Union wasn't communist, they didn't do communism correct, when we do it we will do it correct.

So yeah, what China does can be seen as a lot of the same corporativism that the fascists did, but the fascists were very much inspired by socialist ideas when they did their stuff in the 30's. Mussolini being an old socialist and NSDAP having that S in the name and so on. So the ChiComs going full circle does not stop them from being commies, even if it rhymes with the fascists.
Technically it's a fact that there has never been an actual communist government. Even the Soviet union never actually claimed to be communist. Their whole thing was claiming to be socialist and working towards communism as a future ideal. One of Khruschevs most famous quotes was his promise of "communism in 20 years".

Though this "leftists claim any failed socialist isn't a real socialist" thing is quite a myth, spread by Conservatives to smear socialists in the west.  Anyone who actually knows what they are talking about recognises the ussr was socialist... But we think it's missing the point to be upset about this and painting it as a reason socialism is bad. The ussrs socialism was imperfect and made mistakes but it wasn't particularly evil. The whole authoritarian dictatorship thing they had going on we find far more objectionable than how they ran their economy, women's and minority rights, etc....

Fascists took some cues from socialism, though usually in the sense of flying off in completely the opposite direction. The key differentiator between those Marxist leaders who were fascists with a lick of red paint and full on fascists lies in economics. And the way China is setup very closely resembles fascism, the old Marxist setup shows no sign of coming back.


Quote from: crazy canuck on August 12, 2021, 07:08:16 PM


Russians didn't suppress non Russian populations within the Soviet Union?

Not as part of a co-ordinated national effort to enforce a nationally uniform Russian culture heavily based on ancient beliefs of Russian supremacy.
With some notable exceptions the Soviet union, and communist China, were generally pretty ok when it came to treatment of minorities. On paper they were outright excellent with helping minorities being a central point of propeganda.
No, what China is doing really isn't standard communist behaviour at all. Even the propeganda about what they're doing, providing education camps et al, is very thin. Its clearly pointed in quite a different direction to liberation of the oppressed. The way they're being directed towards slaving for big connected corporations looking to grow even richer...far more parallels with nazi concentration camps than Soviet  gulags. Very far from maoist re-education.

China today  is built on victimhood and a great past golden age that was unfairly stolen and can only be reclaimed through unity and purity.
As much as Mao caused massive damage you can at least see Marxist thinking behind what was being done - down with tradition, let's build a better tomorrow. That's not what is happening in China today. They want to fight past injustices and restore the natural order of a past golden age.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on August 13, 2021, 04:48:56 AM
QuoteThe ussrs socialism was imperfect and made mistakes but it wasn't particularly evil. The whole authoritarian dictatorship thing they had going on we find far more objectionable than how they ran their economy, women's and minority rights, etc..

I am inclined to give you a fuck you over that one. I am glad the whole soviet socialist approach didn't inconvenience you but it did ruin my country, thank you very much.

And it is incredibly dishonest to neatly create an "everything that's bad" basket, then point at the acceptable and only mildly bad things which remain, and declare the overall summary to be fine.

Yes, some things improved under the communist regimes. But they improved compared to the medieval conditions that persisted on those countries prior to them. Like education. Except of course that you could not get past a certain point into higher education unless your family was politically reliable. The list could go on.

All of those things improved similarly and better in the West and you didn't need fucking Russian boots on your faces to achieve them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on August 13, 2021, 05:01:25 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 13, 2021, 04:34:23 AM
Not as part of a co-ordinated national effort to enforce a nationally uniform Russian culture heavily based on ancient beliefs of Russian supremacy.

Just because the Soviet Union was too ramshackle a state with too large a proportion of minorities to risk moving remotely as rapidly or forcefully as China has done does not mean that the end goal was not a new "Soviet People" (speaking Russian) and that measures were not taken to accomplish this. For example, the number of schools teaching in minority languages was in continual decline for the last decades of Soviet rule as part of deliberate policy.

The minorities in the Soviet Union got a good deal in the Twenties and Thirties as they were almost universally opposed to the Communists and were too numerous not to be appeased. Ending "Russification" and reversing some aspects of it was necessary for the security of the new Communist rulers. This changed with Stalin and the War; postwar the goal was the creation of a new "Soviet people".

In many ways this was a return to Tsarist policies concerning minorities; a good Soviet Communist couldn't admit that, of course.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 13, 2021, 06:22:58 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 13, 2021, 04:34:23 AMTechnically it's a fact that there has never been an actual communist government. Even the Soviet union never actually claimed to be communist. Their whole thing was claiming to be socialist and working towards communism as a future ideal. One of Khruschevs most famous quotes was his promise of "communism in 20 years".
Yeah but that is also what the CCP would say. Their take - since Deng at least - on a level of theory is that Marx is right and you do need to go through the historical stages to reach Communism and that the party state is, in theory, retaining control while taking China through those stages (at pace). Now, as with the USSR, the theory is often justification and rationalisation of policy decisions just like Khrushchev's line.

QuoteFascists took some cues from socialism, though usually in the sense of flying off in completely the opposite direction. The key differentiator between those Marxist leaders who were fascists with a lick of red paint and full on fascists lies in economics. And the way China is setup very closely resembles fascism, the old Marxist setup shows no sign of coming back.
I don't see any link between the content or circumstances of fascism and China.

QuoteNot as part of a co-ordinated national effort to enforce a nationally uniform Russian culture heavily based on ancient beliefs of Russian supremacy.
With some notable exceptions the Soviet union, and communist China, were generally pretty ok when it came to treatment of minorities. On paper they were outright excellent with helping minorities being a central point of propeganda.
No, what China is doing really isn't standard communist behaviour at all. Even the propeganda about what they're doing, providing education camps et al, is very thin. Its clearly pointed in quite a different direction to liberation of the oppressed. The way they're being directed towards slaving for big connected corporations looking to grow even richer...far more parallels with nazi concentration camps than Soviet  gulags. Very far from maoist re-education.
[/quote]
Those policies are still in place in China - I think they are ultimately derived and adapted from the nationality policy of the USSR. In China it's moved from nationality policy to ethnic minority from nationality to avoid the risk of disintegration. But the whole idea of having these official ethnic minorities, with certain separate institutions and with a sort of affirmative action or collective punishment is what the PRC has always had. I think there is more continuity from that approach to what China is doing now than you're suggesting. I don't think there is a wild break from Soviet or Chinese policies to minorities and Xinjiang - the example from the USSR is not the gulag but re-settlements and collective punishment for "disloyal" or dangerous minorities.

I think Xi is different but it's more scale or success than type. I think there's far more continuity than not with the past of the PRC.

QuoteYes, some things improved under the communist regimes. But they improved compared to the medieval conditions that persisted on those countries prior to them. Like education. Except of course that you could not get past a certain point into higher education unless your family was politically reliable. The list could go on.
Yes - I often think about Diane Abbott's line that Mao did more good than bad pointing at education and foot-binding in particular. Which is a take.

Although Adam Tooze recently had an interesting piece on the World Bank's 1983 report on China - which is really interesting because it sort of looks at where China is, where it was at and where it could go. And it is really interesting that the World Bank is kind of glowing about where China has been (and aspects of the Maoist legacy) given the different perspective of the World Bank v China. No doubt they didn't want to offend a new member, but it is striking.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 13, 2021, 06:37:08 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 13, 2021, 04:48:56 AM
I am inclined to give you a fuck you over that one. I am glad the whole soviet socialist approach didn't inconvenience you but it did ruin my country, thank you very much.
Much like the liberal Thatcherite approach in my country :p

I'm not a communist. I don't think they had the right idea with how to run their country at all. But at the same time I think its really missing the point to say they were bad because they were socialist. This was pretty incidental to the main reasons they were so awful.

Quote
And it is incredibly dishonest to neatly create an "everything that's bad" basket, then point at the acceptable and only mildly bad things which remain, and declare the overall summary to be fine.

Yes, some things improved under the communist regimes. But they improved compared to the medieval conditions that persisted on those countries prior to them. Like education. Except of course that you could not get past a certain point into higher education unless your family was politically reliable. The list could go on.

All of those things improved similarly and better in the West and you didn't need fucking Russian boots on your faces to achieve them.
I'm not sure what you mean here. I never said the eastern block was fine. I simply favour a more nuanced look than the evil empire of doom and it is worth reading up beyond the well known stuff where they were awful and seeing the areas where they got some things right.
Overall the big complaint is the way some spin the cold war as between "democracy" and "communism". Often using this to smear socialists in democratic countries for irrelevant reasons.

QuoteJust because the Soviet Union was too ramshackle a state with too large a proportion of minorities to risk moving remotely as rapidly or forcefully as China has done does not mean that the end goal was not a new "Soviet People" (speaking Russian) and that measures were not taken to accomplish this. For example, the number of schools teaching in minority languages was in continual decline for the last decades of Soviet rule as part of deliberate policy.

The minorities in the Soviet Union got a good deal in the Twenties and Thirties as they were almost universally opposed to the Communists and were too numerous not to be appeased. Ending "Russification" and reversing some aspects of it was necessary for the security of the new Communist rulers. This changed with Stalin and the War; postwar the goal was the creation of a new "Soviet people".

In many ways this was a return to Tsarist policies concerning minorities; a good Soviet Communist couldn't admit that, of course.
Sure. Soviet People. The wonderful communist people of the future, uniting all the world in a glorious stateless society.
Not the ancient and masterful rightful Chinese rulers of the world where the people of the middle kingdom rule supreme and all others know their place bowing before China.
If you find your group in the cross hairs then it makes little practical difference but we're talking about the ideology behind it all here and its pretty clear modern China has flipped to completely the other side of extremism.
It's missing how much there was genuine belief in marxism at the start to paint it all as just appeasing unruly minorities. Constitutionally there were genuine efforts to help minorities- as time went on of course real politic considerations began to enter into things. With the Soviets this was about the state and the survival of socialism until its inevitable future victory. With China its about Chinese civilization retaining its past glory.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on August 13, 2021, 08:27:08 AM
FFS Tyr.  I started typing but I better calm down first.

Them being socialist (as you say, I believe they called themselves communist) had everything to do with the way they acted. That was the ideology they used as an excuse to rob, coerce, oppress, and destroy people. Sure, people hated them for WHAT they did and not WHY they did it, but the two cannot be separated from each other.


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on August 13, 2021, 08:36:30 AM
Thinking that the intentional murder of millions of innocent civilians "isn't particularly evil" seems a bit weird.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 13, 2021, 08:50:37 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 13, 2021, 08:36:30 AM
Thinking that the intentional murder of millions of innocent civilians "isn't particularly evil" seems a bit weird.
They all would've died anyway at some point.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on August 13, 2021, 09:02:16 AM
Quote from: The Brain on August 13, 2021, 08:36:30 AM
Thinking that the intentional murder of millions of innocent civilians "isn't particularly evil" seems a bit weird.

And they killed even more unintentionally as a result of them trying to help them. It was best for the USSR just not to notice you either way.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on August 13, 2021, 09:03:55 AM
In the Soviet Union Russification was a big deal...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 13, 2021, 09:13:44 AM
Quote from: Threviel on August 13, 2021, 04:11:46 AM
The thing is that a lot of leftists often argue that every failed communist experiment wasn't communist, it was fascist. Oh no, the Soviet Union wasn't communist, they didn't do communism correct, when we do it we will do it correct.

I agree with that, but we aren't talking about 1970s China, which was clearly still "Left" and a lot worse then today's China.  The issue isn't about making everything good "Left" and everything bad "Right"  It's about the absurdity of labelling as "Communist" a competitive market economy with international stock and commodity exchanges, where the private sector generates 60% of the national GDP.

The Stalinist regime may not what Marx had in mind but it was clearly still a Communist regime and a lot more than lip service was paid to Marxist-Leninist doctrine.  The present day Chinese system is very different. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 13, 2021, 09:32:51 AM
QuoteThinking that the intentional murder of millions of innocent civilians "isn't particularly evil" seems a bit weird.
And why do you think murdering innocent civilians isn't evil?

Quote from: Tamas on August 13, 2021, 08:27:08 AM
FFS Tyr.  I started typing but I better calm down first.

Them being socialist (as you say, I believe they called themselves communist) had everything to do with the way they acted. That was the ideology they used as an excuse to rob, coerce, oppress, and destroy people. Sure, people hated them for WHAT they did and not WHY they did it, but the two cannot be separated from each other.

I don't agree there.
When someone has evil goals then you can pretty certain they're going to be evil fuckers.
When someone has positive goals.... Then they can still be perverted and used as an excuse for all manner of nasty stuff. But they can also be pursued in a harmless fashion.
As bad as the eastern block regimes were you do get plenty of decent socialist governments in democratic countries.
No such thing with fascists.

Even within the eastern block its also very debatable that everything they did was in the pursuit of socialism rather than simply their own selfish desire for power and the benefits that come with that. Doubtless there were plenty of examples where with a noble intention they fucked up massively with horrid results (e.g. the cultural revolution) but it is more common that most of the worst acts of marxist regimes were down dictator's attempts to maintain control.


QuoteYeah but that is also what the CCP would say. Their take - since Deng at least - on a level of theory is that Marx is right and you do need to go through the historical stages to reach Communism and that the party state is, in theory, retaining control while taking China through those stages (at pace). Now, as with the USSR, the theory is often justification and rationalisation of policy decisions just like Khrushchev's line.
Interesting thought. But I haven't seen much evidence to suggest that this is what is happening. Yes they're reigning in the big businesses and tying them even tighter to the regime.... but there's none of the doctrinal posturing you'd expect alongside this if they were following the Marxist roadmap. Instead the language is very fascist- its not people being rich that is bad, its the fact they are corrupt (to whatever extent this is actually true varies).


QuoteThose policies are still in place in China - I think they are ultimately derived and adapted from the nationality policy of the USSR. In China it's moved from nationality policy to ethnic minority from nationality to avoid the risk of disintegration. But the whole idea of having these official ethnic minorities, with certain separate institutions and with a sort of affirmative action or collective punishment is what the PRC has always had. I think there is more continuity from that approach to what China is doing now than you're suggesting. I don't think there is a wild break from Soviet or Chinese policies to minorities and Xinjiang - the example from the USSR is not the gulag but re-settlements and collective punishment for "disloyal" or dangerous minorities.

I think Xi is different but it's more scale or success than type. I think there's far more continuity than not with the past of the PRC.
Its still there on paper. But it is being very de-empathized and special rights for minorities being lost.

I think there's a continuity. But only in the sense that they started far left, have gone through liberalism, and are now coming out the other side.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on August 13, 2021, 09:52:37 AM
Ok so, in essence, if somebody in power is working toward selfish personal needs instead of the common good, they cannot possibly be labelled socialist? Gotcha.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on August 13, 2021, 10:57:42 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 13, 2021, 09:52:37 AM
Ok so, in essence, if somebody in power is working toward selfish personal needs instead of the common good, they cannot possibly be labelled socialist? Gotcha.

You are arguing with Tyr.  Why?  You won't learn anything, and he can't.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on August 13, 2021, 10:59:02 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 13, 2021, 09:52:37 AM
Ok so, in essence, if somebody in power is working toward selfish personal needs instead of the common good, they cannot possibly be labelled socialist? Gotcha.



It is kind of like the right wingers here who seem to equate right =  freedom, left = authoritarianism.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 13, 2021, 11:07:11 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 13, 2021, 09:52:37 AM
Ok so, in essence, if somebody in power is working toward selfish personal needs instead of the common good, they cannot possibly be labelled socialist? Gotcha.


That's not what I said.
Eastern block countries were socialist dictatorships.
It was the dictatorship part of that equation that was the cause of the majority of the bad shit that went on there.
The socialist part does just fine in a democratic system.
Socialism = bad because the Eastern block was bad is a massive logical leap that ignores one of the key points of those regimes.

But yeah. All going way off on a big tangent. China is increasingly fascist not because its bad and communists can't be bad (yes, far more the right wingers arguing the opposite of that one) but the form it's dictatorship is taking and the policies it is pursuing. Its a particularly black flavour of dictatorship, very distinct from maosim.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on August 13, 2021, 12:40:32 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 13, 2021, 09:13:44 AM
Quote from: Threviel on August 13, 2021, 04:11:46 AM
The thing is that a lot of leftists often argue that every failed communist experiment wasn't communist, it was fascist. Oh no, the Soviet Union wasn't communist, they didn't do communism correct, when we do it we will do it correct.

I agree with that, but we aren't talking about 1970s China, which was clearly still "Left" and a lot worse then today's China.  The issue isn't about making everything good "Left" and everything bad "Right"  It's about the absurdity of labelling as "Communist" a competitive market economy with international stock and commodity exchanges, where the private sector generates 60% of the national GDP.

The Stalinist regime may not what Marx had in mind but it was clearly still a Communist regime and a lot more than lip service was paid to Marxist-Leninist doctrine.  The present day Chinese system is very different.

All good points. China is difficult to categorise. What about this then: China is economically very similar to fascism, but politically more like a communist state.

Of course, totalitarian all of them, but CCP at least talks like communists, not like fascists.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on August 15, 2021, 06:54:40 PM
China isn't much like a fascist state economically at all; fascist states had large command economy sectors, which China does not.

What is somewhat similar to fascism in China today is Xi's "Chinese Dream" and "National Rejuvenation" concepts, that sound a lot to me like Mussolini (but with more individualism).  Xi doesn't talk about the withering away of the state at all, as far as I can see, but he does mention social justice, which is definitely something leftists advance and rightists sneer at.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 16, 2021, 09:35:18 AM
Quote from: grumbler on August 15, 2021, 06:54:40 PM
China isn't much like a fascist state economically at all; fascist states had large command economy sectors, which China does not.

?

The SOEs control what used to called the "commanding heights" industries - energy, transport, communications, media, and finance.  Three of the top 5 Fortune 500 global companies are Chinese SOEs.  Chinese private companies, while producing the majority of national GDP, are focused on less strategic areas like retail and e-commerce, real estate, healthcare, entertainment, and education.  But even there, private ownership is definitively in a subordinate position, as the owners and shareholders of private companies in the education sector recently learned.  Also some companies that are nominally private, such as Huawei, are operated and controlled by executives with a state sector background and are generally understood to coordinate closely with the state.  The comparison to the close relationship between the state and 30s era private German concerns such as VW, Krupp, IG Farben, and Siemens seems apt.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 17, 2021, 02:44:51 AM
I'm not so sure that state owned industries are too typical of fascism. More standard is an incestuous relationship between private companies and government.
The nazis for instance were really big on privatisation of industries.... But then it was the duty of corporations to serve the state and maintain a very close relationship.
It's notable this kind of setup though typical of fascism is also seen in modern South Korea and has a long history in Japan-the zaibatsu were broken up after the war but Japan Inc continues.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on August 17, 2021, 04:48:26 PM
I don't know of anyone who argues that state-owned industries are typical of fascism, so arguing that they weren't seems to be just stating a truism.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 17, 2021, 05:10:26 PM
State ownership was significant in Italy, where the IRI was formed and acquired controlling stakes in key industries.

In Germany, the Nazis tended to favor private ownership on paper, but channeled ownership stakes to favored industrialists that supported the government and cooperated with the tight regulatory regime and the new state fiscal policy.  Putin's Russia would be a modern point of comparison.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on August 17, 2021, 07:35:50 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 17, 2021, 05:10:26 PM
State ownership was significant in Italy, where the IRI was formed and acquired controlling stakes in key industries.

In Germany, the Nazis tended to favor private ownership on paper, but channeled ownership stakes to favored industrialists that supported the government and cooperated with the tight regulatory regime and the new state fiscal policy.  Putin's Russia would be a modern point of comparison.

I had been under the impression that the IRI refloated businesses after rescuing them, but this does not seem to be typical of the IRI.

Nazi Germany's economy was largely a command economy, with private ownership.  Sort of the reverse of today's China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 27, 2021, 10:21:50 AM
I'm seeing a lot articles coming out about China doing something, and thinking "hmm, that's actually not stupid at all".  For example, cracking down on crypto nonsense, cracking down on engagement algorithms that promote addiction, and now cracking down on "996" work culture.

What's your take on this, Jacob?  I'm I getting taken in by PR and propaganda, or is China actually putting their bureaucratic despotism to good use from time to time?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 27, 2021, 11:10:34 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 27, 2021, 10:21:50 AM
I'm seeing a lot articles coming out about China doing something, and thinking "hmm, that's actually not stupid at all".  For example, cracking down on crypto nonsense, cracking down on engagement algorithms that promote addiction, and now cracking down on "996" work culture.

What's your take on this, Jacob?  I'm I getting taken in by PR and propaganda, or is China actually putting their bureaucratic despotism to good use from time to time?

China is cracking down on crypto nonsense? That's good to hear - since last I heard they're one of the main drivers of mining. Honestly, though, I expect that any cracking down on it is based on "this is outside the control of the party"/ "this financially benefits someone other than Xi's clique in the party" rather than anything else. Xi seems hellbent on establishing party (and his own) supremacy, and crypto is something he can't control well.

Cracking down on 996 work culture... I'm skeptical that has any kind of legs at all. 996 is driven by pretty deep structural and cultural factors, and a simple party directive is not going to change much.

But, I mean it doesn't mean they can't occasionally accidentally put bureaucratic despotism to uses that sounds like it might be good... but I'm going to remain pretty skeptical.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 27, 2021, 11:29:08 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 27, 2021, 11:10:34 AM
China is cracking down on crypto nonsense? That's good to hear - since last I heard they're one of the main drivers of mining. Honestly, though, I expect that any cracking down on it is based on "this is outside the control of the party"/ "this financially benefits someone other than Xi's clique in the party" rather than anything else. Xi seems hellbent on establishing party (and his own) supremacy, and crypto is something he can't control well.
The official rationale was energy/climate and that this was basically a really wasteful way of using energy given China's net zero commitments - and it seems to have made some headway on that front - my understanding is that it's now falling quite strongly:
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2F8c2a12d0-e47b-11eb-9d33-51baac5fbaa5-standard.png?dpr=1&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700)

Separately the Chinese Central Bank is looking at digital currency - but that is just a different type of fiat currency I suppose so not really similar to crypto.

The one I find really interesting is the crackdown on "chaotic" fan culture:
QuoteCelebrities Disappear From Internet as China Moves Against Fan Culture

China announced further steps to control celebrity fan culture, which regulators say has become "chaotic." The moves came as one of China's most prominent stars Vicki Zhao Wei was scrubbed from the internet and another star, female actor Zheng Shuang was punished for a tax scandal.

The Cyberspace Administration of China on Friday issued a pair of connected notices. In one, it said that it would take punitive action against the spread of harmful information in celebrity fan groups. Discussion channels may be shut down.


In the second move, the CAC announced draft regulations for internet recommendation algorithms. It wants to halt algorithms that encourage users to spend large amounts of money or spend money in a way that "may disrupt public order." Internet companies must make it harder to create fake user accounts and make it easier for users to turn off recommendation systems.

Recommendation algorithms are used by home shopping services, news sites, social media and by streaming platforms. The draft is open to discussion until mid-September.

Chinese regulators, across a multitude of ministries and departments, are in the midst of a months-long campaign to reign in the country's tech giants. They regard them as having grown too big, having infringed on user privacy and encouraged vulgarity, individualism and pop culture.

Celebrities have been especially targeted by the crackdown. Superstar singer-actor Kris Wu has been arrested following rape allegations, and, as a consequence, his internet presence has been largely deleted.

Another star, Zhang Zhehan who is accused of hurting Chinese feelings after posing for photos at Tokyo's notorious Yasukuni Shrine recently saw his films and TV series deleted by broadcasters and streaming platforms. The state-owned Global Times newspaper reported that Zhang has been "forced out of the entertainment industry."

Now, Variety's sister publication WWD reports that Zhao, a film and TV star who has appeared in "Shaolin Soccer" and "Red Cliff," is also being banished. Her name is being edited out of the 1990s-made and still hugely popular TV series "My Fair Princess" by video platforms including Tencent Video, iQiyi and Youku.

WWD says it is unclear why Zhao, the face of Italian fashion brand Fendi in China, is currently being canceled. It speculates that her fate may be linked to ongoing investigations into Zhou Jiangyong, a senior official in Hangzhou, the city that is home to Alibaba. Zhao is also close to Jack Ma, the co-founder of Alibaba who has endured nearly a year of state-orchestrated attacks after publicly criticizing China's financial regulatory system.


Zheng, who was at the center of a storm over surrogate babies earlier in the year, has now been fined RMB299 million ($46 million) over unpaid income tax liabilities and excessive earnings. Though little known overseas, the 29-year-old Zeng is one of the highest paid actresses in the world. She was reportedly paid $24.6 million (RMB160 million) for 77 days of filming — $320,000 a day — for her role in the upcoming 50-episode series "A Chinese Ghost Story."

Being brought to heel over tax payments has clear echoes of the 2017 downfall of Fan Bingbing, China's biggest female star.

Fan's $100 million fines led to a film and TV production hiatus as companies rushed to clean up their tax affairs, rewrite contracts with performers and halt the use of domestic tax havens. China's authorities have previously also sought to cap celebrity pay packages for TV series, handed out exemplary punishments to celebrities who have used prostitutes or drugs, and threatened others with lifetime bans.

Streaming platform iQiyi this week said that it had has cancelled plans for talent contest shows, which create celebrities. The company's CEO Gong Yu said that the shows are "unhealthy."

The latest crackdowns on tech and celebrities appear also have a political context. The Communist Party of China may be eliminating all other sources of power and influence in civil society – wealth, technology, media and fame – other than its own.


Zhao has flirted with trouble in the past. In 2018, she and her husband were banned from securities markets for five years after giving false information in a corporate takeover. She has also criticized for amassing a fortune reported to be over $1 billion, in part through her early purchase of shares in film company Alibaba Pictures on the personal recommendation of Ma. In 2016, she was accused of supporting Taiwanese separatism by appearing in a film with Leon Dai (and in which Alibaba Pictures was a minority investor), while in 2001 she was severely criticized for wearing a dress that appeared to be made from a Japanese military flag.

Relatedly China has also launched a privacy law which is sort of similar to European privacy laws (with a broad get out for things "required by law" - which also exists in Europe but there are more controls). Until now China's regulation of the tech sector overwhelmingly focused on cybersecurity - which is still a big issue and why Didi have had to cancel their expansion. A new focus on more nebulous things like privacy or chaos is...interesting from a state like China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on August 27, 2021, 10:11:25 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 13, 2021, 10:59:02 AM

It is kind of like the right wingers here who seem to equate right =  freedom, left = authoritarianism.
It used to be the case.  Back in the good old days, when boys were boys and girls were girls.  Nowadays, everything is so confused :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on August 31, 2021, 03:52:50 AM
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-rolls-out-new-rules-minors-online-gaming-xinhua-2021-08-30/

QuoteThree hours a week: Play time's over for China's young video gamers

SHANGHAI, Aug 30 (Reuters) - China has forbidden under-18s from playing video games for more than three hours a week, a stringent social intervention that it said was needed to pull the plug on a growing addiction to what it once described as "spiritual opium".

The new rules, published on Monday, are part of a major shift by Beijing to strengthen control over its society and key sectors of its economy, including tech, education and property, after years of runaway growth.

The restrictions, which apply to any devices including phones, are a body blow to a global gaming industry that caters to tens of millions of young players in the world's most lucrative market.

They limit under-18s to playing for one hour a day - 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. - on only Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays, according to the Xinhua state news agency. They can also play for an hour, at the same time, on public holidays.

The rules from the National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) regulator coincide with a broader clampdown by Beijing against China's tech giants, such as Alibaba Group (9988.HK) and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK).

The campaign to prevent what state media has described as the "savage growth" of some companies has wiped tens of billions of dollars off shares traded at home and abroad. read more

"Teenagers are the future of our motherland," Xinhua quoted an unnamed NPPA spokesperson as saying. "Protecting the physical and mental health of minors is related to the people's vital interests, and relates to the cultivation of the younger generation in the era of national rejuvenation."

Gaming companies will be barred from providing services to minors in any form outside the stipulated hours and must ensure they have put real-name verification systems in place, said the regulator, which oversees the country's video games market.

Previously, China had limited the length of time under-18s could play video games to 1.5 hours on any day and three hours on holidays under 2019 rules.

The new rules swiftly became one of the most discussed topics on Weibo, China's answer to Twitter. Some users expressed support for the measures while others said they were surprised at how drastic the rules were.

"This is so fierce that I'm utterly speechless," said one comment that received over 700 likes.

Others expressed doubt that the restrictions could be enforced. "They will just use their parents' logins, how can they control it?" asked one.

GAMING SHARES ZAPPED

The Chinese games market will generate an estimated $45.6 billion of revenue in 2021, ahead of the United States, according to analytics firm Newzoo.

The crackdown reverberated around the world.

Shares in Amsterdam-listed tech investment company Prosus (PRX.AS), which holds a 29% stake in Chinese social media and video games group Tencent, were down 1.45%, while European online video gaming stocks Ubisoft (UBIP.PA) and Embracer Group (EMBRACb.ST) each fell over 2%.

Shares of Chinese gaming stocks slid in pre-market trading in the United States with NetEase falling over 6% and mobile game publisher Bilibili dropping 3%.

About 62.5% of Chinese minors often play games online, and 13.2% of underage mobile game users play mobile games for more than two hours a day on working days, according to state media.

Gaming companies have been on edge in recent weeks as state media criticised gaming addiction among young people, signalling a regulatory crackdown.

A state media outlet described online games as "spiritual opium" this month and cited Tencent's "Honor of Kings" in an article that called for more curbs on the industry, battering shares in the world's largest gaming firm by revenue.

Tencent later announced new measures to reduce the time and money children spend on games, starting with Honor of Kings. Its president also said it was working with regulators to explore ways in which the total amount of time minors spent on gaming could be capped across all titles in the industry.

The NPPA regulator told Xinhua it would increase the frequency and intensity of inspections for online gaming companies to ensure they were putting in place time limits and anti-addiction systems.

It also said that parents and teachers played key roles in curbing gaming addiction.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2021, 04:04:21 AM
MAH TENCENT SHARES  :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 31, 2021, 04:04:31 AM
Its funny/sad, I remember just last week watching a video about the rise of China's gaming industry. Genshin Impact is raking it in.
Yes, they're rolling out trash gatcha and pay to win games. But thats the way of the industry at the moment.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on August 31, 2021, 04:12:52 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 31, 2021, 04:04:31 AM
Its funny/sad, I remember just last week watching a video about the rise of China's gaming industry. Genshin Impact is raking it in.
Yes, they're rolling out trash gatcha and pay to win games. But thats the way of the industry at the moment.

Westerners can still drop all their money into those games, though. ;)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on August 31, 2021, 04:17:01 AM
PC Gamer has some more info, I esp. found this ... interesting:

https://www.pcgamer.com/uk/china-really-doesnt-want-young-people-to-play-online-games/

QuoteMore recently, Tencent announced its own tighter limits on gaming for minors, although it didn't go as far as the new government regulations. In August it reduced allowable play time from 90 minutes per day to 60 through the week and three hours to two on weekends and holidays. It also boosted its facial recognition checks to an "all-day inspection" system requiring re-authentication from all suspicious accounts in order to crack down on minors who have managed to circumvent the system, and banned online gaming for anyone under 12 altogether.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 31, 2021, 04:19:18 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 31, 2021, 04:12:52 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 31, 2021, 04:04:31 AM
Its funny/sad, I remember just last week watching a video about the rise of China's gaming industry. Genshin Impact is raking it in.
Yes, they're rolling out trash gatcha and pay to win games. But thats the way of the industry at the moment.

Westerners can still drop all their money into those games, though. ;)

True. But you need local talent to make them, and playing the games is a big source of recruitment.
Getting big opium war vibes here out of the concept of China making and exporting this crap but not playing it :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on August 31, 2021, 04:20:25 AM
Quote"This is so fierce that I'm utterly speechless," said one comment that received over 700 likes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on August 31, 2021, 04:29:39 AM
Quote from: garbon on August 31, 2021, 04:20:25 AM
Quote"This is so fierce that I'm utterly speechless," said one comment that received over 700 likes.

Tyra?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on August 31, 2021, 04:51:17 AM
Time for a resurgence of systems unconnected from the internet.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on August 31, 2021, 05:12:37 AM
I don't think this more strict approach (seemingly at every part of life by now) will work out for Winnie and co.

People will let you get away with a lot of shit as long as they feel like their immediate life is untouched and left alone (the fact that they are usually wrong about it even then, is beside the point). Start making their everyday lives miserable and they will start removing their consent to being treated like sheep.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 31, 2021, 05:19:08 AM
Other interesting thing is that he's been talking a lot about the need for billionaires and rich companies to "repay society" and I think the "third distribution" of wealth to achieve "common prosperity". Basically they want to "reasonably adjust excessive incomes and encourage high-income people and companies to pay back more to society". From my understanding third distribution basically means large-scale charitable giving/philanthropy.

Almost immediately TenCent announced they were putting aside about $8 billion for their "common prspoerity" program - no doubt to avoid too many questions from the state about what they're doing for "common prosperity".

So yeah I think between crackdowns on tech that's perceived as out of control, as earning too much, or possible social risks (fan culture, gaming) - I would probably avoid Chinese tech shares (maybe all Chinese shares) for a while.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 31, 2021, 09:47:21 AM
Cultural Revolution 2.0
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 31, 2021, 09:57:52 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 31, 2021, 05:12:37 AM
I don't think this more strict approach (seemingly at every part of life by now) will work out for Winnie and co.

People will let you get away with a lot of shit as long as they feel like their immediate life is untouched and left alone (the fact that they are usually wrong about it even then, is beside the point). Start making their everyday lives miserable and they will start removing their consent to being treated like sheep.

I agree with the larger point, but I doubt gaming is going to have much of an impact on that either way.

I do wonder if the "social distribution" is intended to in make life less hardscrabble for the average Chinese (as opposed to just taking wealth from the rich and redistributing them Xi-loyal apparatchiks and organizations). It's generally agreed - I think - that the massive economic growth and increase in standard of living of the Chinese population over the last handful of decades has been slowing down significantly. Maybe "social distribution" is an attempt to soften the impact of that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 31, 2021, 10:18:37 AM
With the whole 'lying down movement' and other general unrest amongst the young it does seem to be completely disregarding the long term to attack games.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on August 31, 2021, 10:26:38 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 31, 2021, 09:57:52 AM


I do wonder if the "social distribution" is intended to in make life less hardscrabble for the average Chinese (as opposed to just taking wealth from the rich and redistributing them Xi-loyal apparatchiks and organizations). It's generally agreed - I think - that the massive economic growth and increase in standard of living of the Chinese population over the last handful of decades has been slowing down significantly. Maybe "social distribution" is an attempt to soften the impact of that.

Unless evidence to the contrary I'd assume the whole crackdown on the rich thing is a powerplay. Everyone with wealth (and thus power) not personally owed to Xi is a potential risk.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 31, 2021, 10:51:11 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 31, 2021, 10:26:38 AM
Unless evidence to the contrary I'd assume the whole crackdown on the rich thing is a powerplay. Everyone with wealth (and thus power) not personally owed to Xi is a potential risk.

Yeah that's my starting assumption also.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 31, 2021, 04:47:20 PM
Incidentally interesting piece on Arm China basically taking Arm's IP then going rogue:
https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/the-semiconductor-heist-of-the-century

Inevitably despite that warning the UK government is showing no sign of trying to block the sale of a market-leading semi-conductor firm based in Wales to a Chinese suitor. I feel like it's reasonably predictable how that'll go :bleeding:

Edit: Oh apparently the sale has happened but it's now been called in for review for national security reasons and can be unwound/blocked (at least one advisor has said it should be).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 31, 2021, 04:50:31 PM
If Britain can sell the jet engine technology to USSR, why can't they sell chip technology to China?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 31, 2021, 05:05:08 PM
:lol: Britain for 60 years when the very blaringly obvious security risk is, in fact, exploited: "this is the one thing we didn't want to happen."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on August 31, 2021, 05:05:19 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 31, 2021, 04:50:31 PM
If Britain can sell the jet engine technology to USSR, why can't they sell chip technology to China?

Because to sell to China, you have to give Chinese 51% of your company's stake in a "joint venture".  The Chinese partners can then take the joint venture and run it independently of the interests of the 49% shareholders, and the courts will back them because crony capitalism.  So you don't sell to China, you agree to let the Chinese rob you.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 31, 2021, 05:16:53 PM
I read the arm piece a few days ago
Needs pointing out brexit is to blame for that - it was the post ref crash of the pound which knocked arm down to a bargain price that its board was willing to sell it to soft bank for.
Soft bank are a really awful company. White family ads excluded.
It's strange though as you'd think they should know better. Japan has generally been way ahead of the west with pulling back from China - I read loads about this happening when I was reading the Japanese papers regularly a decade ago. I guess soft bank as a big untraditional company fell outside this
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 31, 2021, 05:29:37 PM
Quote from: grumbler on August 31, 2021, 05:05:19 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 31, 2021, 04:50:31 PM
If Britain can sell the jet engine technology to USSR, why can't they sell chip technology to China?

Because to sell to China, you have to give Chinese 51% of your company's stake in a "joint venture".  The Chinese partners can then take the joint venture and run it independently of the interests of the 49% shareholders, and the courts will back them because crony capitalism.  So you don't sell to China, you agree to let the Chinese rob you.
Yeah, good point.  China is definitely not Stalin's USSR when it comes to trustworthiness.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 31, 2021, 05:35:24 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 31, 2021, 05:29:37 PM
Quote from: grumbler on August 31, 2021, 05:05:19 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 31, 2021, 04:50:31 PM
If Britain can sell the jet engine technology to USSR, why can't they sell chip technology to China?

Because to sell to China, you have to give Chinese 51% of your company's stake in a "joint venture".  The Chinese partners can then take the joint venture and run it independently of the interests of the 49% shareholders, and the courts will back them because crony capitalism.  So you don't sell to China, you agree to let the Chinese rob you.
Yeah, good point.  China is definitely not Stalin's USSR when it comes to trustworthiness.

Less to do with trustworthiness and more to do with sophistication.  The Soviets had no idea how to take over the corporate structure of their adversaries, the Chinese were doing it, with western regulatory approval, for quite some time.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 31, 2021, 05:36:52 PM
Yeah although the Soviets were trying to buy advanced heavy industrial equipment and arms to reverse engineer.

And Britain was glad to help :lol: :ph34r:

(So, from memory, at least was Nazi Germany which turned out really badly for them.)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 31, 2021, 06:01:54 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 31, 2021, 05:36:52 PM
Yeah although the Soviets were trying to buy advanced heavy industrial equipment and arms to reverse engineer.

And Britain was glad to help :lol: :ph34r:

(So, from memory, at least was Nazi Germany which turned out really badly for them.)

But that is Grumbler's point.  Compared to China the Soviets were unsophisticated rubes.  Why bother trying to reverse engineer when you can just buy a controlling interest in the company that owns the tech.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on September 01, 2021, 03:05:13 AM
I do wonder if there's any legal recourse on this stuff?
Within China of course not. But then in China they could just rip anything off no matter their rights.
For international selling however could stolen tech be outlawed? Enforcement would be a pain of course but it does seem possible with big ticket items.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on September 02, 2021, 05:51:46 PM
Good to see the Party getting back to basics?  :P

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-entertainment-business-religion-china-62dda0fc98601dd5afa3aa555a901b3f

QuoteChina bans men it sees as not masculine enough from TV
By JOE McDONALD
today

BEIJING (AP) — China's government banned effeminate men on TV and told broadcasters Thursday to promote "revolutionary culture," broadening a campaign to tighten control over business and society and enforce official morality.

President Xi Jinping has called for a "national rejuvenation," with tighter Communist Party control of business, education, culture and religion. Companies and the public are under increasing pressure to align with its vision for a more powerful China and healthier society.

The party has reduced children's access to online games and is trying to discourage what it sees as unhealthy attention to celebrities.

Broadcasters must "resolutely put an end to sissy men and other abnormal esthetics," the TV regulator said, using an insulting slang term for effeminate men — "niang pao," or literally, "girlie guns."

That reflects official concern that Chinese pop stars, influenced by the sleek, girlish look of some South Korean and Japanese singers and actors, are failing to encourage China's young men to be masculine enough.

Broadcasters should avoid promoting "vulgar internet celebrities" and admiration of wealth and celebrity, the regulator said. Instead, programs should "vigorously promote excellent Chinese traditional culture, revolutionary culture and advanced socialist culture."

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 02, 2021, 05:53:10 PM
But Xi himself looks like a grandma.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 05:55:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2021, 05:53:10 PM
But Xi himself looks like a grandma.
I mean tragically Winnie the Pooh is my model of masculinity so I feel this :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on September 02, 2021, 06:09:32 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 02, 2021, 05:55:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 02, 2021, 05:53:10 PM
But Xi himself looks like a grandma.
I mean tragically Winnie the Pooh is my model of masculinity so I feel this :P
Your model of masculinity is a bear without genitals?  :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 11, 2021, 10:04:26 AM
From Adam Tooze on Twitter:
QuoteAdam Tooze
@adam_tooze
Xi's "common prosperity for all", line has knocked €61.7bn, or almost 10 per cent, from the collective market value of Western luxury brands LVMH, Hermès, Kering, Richemont and Burberry since August 17.
https://ft.com/content/4cf59a
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-_-OshXIAAqeY9?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 11, 2021, 10:17:06 AM
I wouldn't just be worried about "common prosperity for all" if I were them, but also the general turn against the symbols of the West. Those brands are used to signal status not just by displaying wealth, but by proclaiming a connection to Western sophistication. For the longest time, Western was seen as better than Chinese across a whole swathe of areas, but that doesn't seem to sit well with Xi and his clique. I would not be super surprised if they attempt to replace those symbols with something more Chinese.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on September 11, 2021, 10:30:16 AM
I'm sure I've read stuff to that effect in the past yeah. Fits in nicely with the quite logical race to beat the wealth gap and follow the Korean and Japanese established leap up to quality manufacture.
Of course China is starting from a much lower place than Korea and Japan ever did when they were in the bulk manifacture space. AFAIK Japanese products were regarded as cheap shit that broke easily, not actively dangerous.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on September 12, 2021, 05:27:26 AM
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-suspends-approval-new-online-games-south-china-morning-post-2021-09-09/

QuoteChina slows down approval for new online games - SCMP

Sept 9 (Reuters) - China has temporarily slowed down approval for all new online games in a bid to curb a gaming addiction among young people, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday citing people with knowledge of the matter.

The SCMP said the strategy to slow down approvals emerged after a Wednesday meeting between Chinese authorities and gaming firms including Tencent Holdings Ltd (0700.HK) and NetEase Inc (9999.HK).

Beijing on Wednesday had summoned gaming firms including Tencent and NetEase.

Tencent declined to comment. NetEase did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.

China moved in August to ban under-18s from playing video games for more than three hours a week, saying this was needed to curb a growing addiction to what it once described as "spiritual opium". read more

China has conducted a broad crackdown on a wide range of sectors including tech, education and property to strengthen government control after years of runaway growth. read more

(This story was corrected to say China "slows down" approvals, not "suspended", in headline and paragraph 1 and 2 after SCMP clarifies. Also, corrects paragraph 2 to say China's strategy emerged after a meeting and not at the meeting)

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on September 12, 2021, 06:24:19 AM
Also in gaming read yesterday China is freaking out and review bombing the new life is strange game because somewhere in the background in a room is a tibetan flag. :lol:
Seems to me with China cracking down on games that this sort of thing offers great free advertising.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 15, 2021, 12:13:27 PM
So not sure if this should go here or books thread - but this new book keeps coming up on podcasts I listen to and sounds fascinating: How China Escaped Shock Therapy.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2021/09/07/book-review-how-china-escaped-shock-therapy-the-market-reform-debate-by-isabella-m-weber/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 17, 2021, 01:40:58 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 15, 2021, 12:13:27 PM
So not sure if this should go here or books thread - but this new book keeps coming up on podcasts I listen to and sounds fascinating: How China Escaped Shock Therapy.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2021/09/07/book-review-how-china-escaped-shock-therapy-the-market-reform-debate-by-isabella-m-weber/

Seems to me a bit of a straw man and missing the point.

"Shock therapy" was a program proposed for already well developed and middling+ advanced economies like the former USSR and eastern Europe in the 80s and 90s.  Not for impoverished countries at or just above subsistence like China just after Mao.

I think it is understood in the literature that development from that low income tier neither requires nor typically involves radical free market policies.  That wasn't the case for Korea or Taiwan, for example, usually cited as two the leading cases. 

The USSR itself demonstrated the feasibility of industrializing using a central planning model.  It clearly can work especially if one is willing to pay any humanitarian cost to make it work - the problem is that one hits a developmental-technological ceiling at a middle income stage.  Mao attempted that model but failed because his regime was so horribly dysfunctional.  It did, however, establish a human capital base for future development by raising basic levels of educational attainment and health care provision.

When Deng was reforming in the 80s I don't think shock therapy was a on the table as a policy model.   As an example see page 54 of this 1983 World Bank review which discusses the Chinese agricultural reforms; it is discussed as introducing the use of market based mechanisms within the overall framework of collective land ownership: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/5966/WDR%201983%20-%20English.pdf;sequence=1.  The report reviews these policies favorably.  It does not criticize China for adopting half-measures, nor does it recommend a shock transition to a full market system.  On the contrary, the one caveat expressed in the concern for "whether the new system can retain the advantages of the old system in financing social services for the poor and in organizing large-scale investment"

The more interesting question is how China was able to implement this development strategy at scale.  In the 80s and early 90s many believed that the Korea, Taiwan and HK examples could not work in the PRC because China was too big.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 17, 2021, 02:16:03 PM
The argument of the book is that it was a debate within the Chinese elite during the eighties.

So I think the way she describes "shock therapy" is basically as a combination of measures - price liberalisation (probably the most important) as quickly as possible, macroeconomic austerity (fical and monetary) followed by privatisation and trade liberalisation. And I think there's a normative sense to "escaped" but, also, I think we have internalised the meaning of "shock therapy" as something that is sort of imposed from the outside - it's an IMF/World Bank policy package, which I don't think is quite right for the period she's talking about.

Her argument is that there was a debate within Chinese policy-makers over this, though it was called "package reforms" in China. This was in the 80s so pre a lot of the USSR and Eastern European experience (or, rather, parallel to it). So the only recent examples were the UK and Chile, but in the context of China and transitioning from a state dominated (or in China, totally centrally planned model) the relevant comparison was post-war Germany and the Erhard miracle - which Chinese economists and policy makers were apparently incredibly interested in and they studied a lot (the discovery that Erhard's policies also resulted in Germany's only general strike is a reason they decided not to go for it). Although interestingly as well as Germany, they sent economists to Hungary and Yugoslavia in the 80s where they were also told the risk is the price liberalisation because it's really difficult to control and challenging for - like theirs - a "socialist" society.

Basically the strong reformers wanted to go for all of the package reforms with big bang price liberalisation (the shock of shock therapy), while the gradualists didn't. All of the Chinese policy makers were agreed they needed reform it was just the pace - also interesting here are concerns from a specific Chinese context so they apparently refer a lot to the risk of hyperinflation which they considered did in the Republic after the war and look at PRC policies to recover from the immediate post-war, but also look back at historic taxes and the concept that you control what is "heavy" and don't control what is "light". So the gradualist model was basically you release controls on what doesn't matter, but the essentials (household essentials and heavy industrial essentials) you keep control of for now.

Her argument is that the gradualists won the argument in 1986. In 1988 the students and intellectuals were broadly on the side of the reformers and the reformers get more, but it was, in part, the resulting inflation on core essential goods that spread the protest movement because it was clear there would be losers from marketisation, but also the gradualist approach had allowed for corruption to explode. Interestingly the liberal strong reformers were broadly people like Jiang Zemin who led the crackdown on protests in 1989, while the gradualists were more moderate in terms of their politics. Looking into the 90s it's not direct but basically the pro-package reform group tend to be pro-trade, pro-coastal development etc while the gradualists tend to be more pro-rural development etc.

But I think her argument is basically that there was this huge policy debate in China during the 80s over whether to adopt similar measures to the USSR (and Eastern Europe) or take a different approach to liberalisation/marketisation of the economy and the end result is that China not only ended up escaping shock therapy, but sort of the binary around it of free market v planned economy which is partly why China ended up on a development strategy to link to your question.

Haven't read it yet and it sounds very interesting.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 17, 2021, 03:31:08 PM
That's all new to me.  Every account I've read up to this point about China's development in the 80s describes regionally based and locally based experiments that often began as grey areas or even illegal but that proceeded with some wink-nods from the top. Failures were either abandoned or stopped and successes spread.  I've never heard the claim that there was serious debate in the early/mid 80s about full market liberalization across the whole country.  To say I am skeptical of that claim would be an understatement.  It sounds like an exaggeration of the influence and potential clout of some theoreticians in the reform camp.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 20, 2021, 10:45:32 AM
Maybe - people are raving about it and it's getting very strong reviews etc so it'd be interesting to see.

Separately what's happening with Evergrande and how much does it matter? :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 20, 2021, 12:01:05 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 20, 2021, 10:45:32 AM
Separately what's happening with Evergrande and how much does it matter? :ph34r:

I don't know enough about finance to have any firm opinions...

I think it's a sign of some of the structural weaknesses of the Chinese economy, and how it's not serving the needs of ordinary Chinese (i.e. housing is out of reach of many).

I think broadly speaking it's part of the realignment of the Chinese economy under Xi. It looks like they're not taking concerted action to backstop Evergrande, which I assumes means they're not super worried about wider contagion. In that context it's another signal to the super wealthy and business that the CCP calls the shots.

Is it going to trigger a collapse in the Chinese construction and housing markets? Maybe. Will that trigger a global collapse of some sort? Doubt it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 20, 2021, 02:01:14 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 20, 2021, 10:45:32 AM
Separately what's happening with Evergrande and how much does it matter? :ph34r:

Seems like a very western-style financial scandal.  Big developer leverages up and builds too much on spec, gets overextended, allegations of misleading disclosures and poor operating controls fly.

Hard to assess impact without knowing exactly who the creditors are and how much they are each in for.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 20, 2021, 02:29:10 PM
On a more light-hearted note - this is great:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/chinas-ugliest-buildings-contest-to-celebrate-unsightly-architecture-begins

Strongly recommend clicking through to the Chinese pages for the ones that aren't pictured and looking through the slideshow - the interior of the matryoshka shaped and themed hotel is quite something.

I actually genuinely kind of like this:
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/66fa4a54849638119c7a1e952e45255f86169d1f/0_364_6000_3600/master/6000.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=695200b82d7f7099c8f7e38abfe4a65c)

But questions need to be asked of the architects who built this :lol:
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/1a46c20f8ea8e1c2a26179c214c6d999e026bbdc/0_144_3360_2017/master/3360.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=caaa7ed192545ce5cacde506deadcd32)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on September 20, 2021, 02:33:39 PM
Yeah. "When did you decide to be awesome?"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on September 20, 2021, 03:10:43 PM
I wonder what the inside of that Sci fi pyramid is like.

The 3 wise men.... Well... Ive seen worse I must say. I appreciate the scale and it looks like it belongs rather than being too new and shiny or falling apart in too obvious and rapid a way.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on September 20, 2021, 03:29:19 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 20, 2021, 02:29:10 PM
On a more light-hearted note - this is great:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/chinas-ugliest-buildings-contest-to-celebrate-unsightly-architecture-begins

Strongly recommend clicking through to the Chinese pages for the ones that aren't pictured and looking through the slideshow - the interior of the matryoshka shaped and themed hotel is quite something.

I actually genuinely kind of like this:
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/66fa4a54849638119c7a1e952e45255f86169d1f/0_364_6000_3600/master/6000.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=695200b82d7f7099c8f7e38abfe4a65c)


Did you play a lot of Qbert as a kid? :D
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on September 24, 2021, 06:05:47 AM
QuoteChina Says All Crypto-Related Transactions Are Illegal

China's central bank said all cryptocurrency-related transactions are illegal and must be banned, sending the strongest signal yet on its determination to crack down on the industry.

All cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Tether, are not fiat currency and cannot be circulated on the market, the People's Bank of China said on its website. All crypto-related transactions, including services provided by offshore exchanges to domestic residents, are illicit financial activities, the PBOC said in the statement.

This latest harsh directive, which sent Bitcoin dropping as much as 5.5% on Friday, comes as global markets grow increasingly concerned over a debt crisis involving property developer China Evergrande Group. The Chinese government may also be responding to signs that miners are disguising their activities to stay in business.

Vijay Ayyar, head of Asia Pacific with cryptocurrency exchange Luno in Singapore, said that while the Chinese government has made similar statements in the past, it is "a slightly nervous environment for crypto with the recent SEC comments and overall macro environment with the Evergrande news. So any comments of this nature will cause a sell-of in risky assets."

The nation's economic planning agency also said it is an urgent task for China to root out crypto mining, and the crackdown is important to meet carbon goals.

Investors should expect "knee-jerk price reaction as China takes the wind out of Bitcoin's sails," said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo.  "The recent rebound from just below $40,000 has likely run its course for now." 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Savonarola on September 24, 2021, 07:36:20 AM
Quote from: The Larch on September 24, 2021, 06:05:47 AM
QuoteChina Says All Crypto-Related Transactions Are Illegal

China's central bank said all cryptocurrency-related transactions are illegal and must be banned, sending the strongest signal yet on its determination to crack down on the industry.

All cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Tether, are not fiat currency and cannot be circulated on the market, the People's Bank of China said on its website. All crypto-related transactions, including services provided by offshore exchanges to domestic residents, are illicit financial activities, the PBOC said in the statement.

This latest harsh directive, which sent Bitcoin dropping as much as 5.5% on Friday, comes as global markets grow increasingly concerned over a debt crisis involving property developer China Evergrande Group. The Chinese government may also be responding to signs that miners are disguising their activities to stay in business.

Vijay Ayyar, head of Asia Pacific with cryptocurrency exchange Luno in Singapore, said that while the Chinese government has made similar statements in the past, it is "a slightly nervous environment for crypto with the recent SEC comments and overall macro environment with the Evergrande news. So any comments of this nature will cause a sell-of in risky assets."

The nation's economic planning agency also said it is an urgent task for China to root out crypto mining, and the crackdown is important to meet carbon goals.

Investors should expect "knee-jerk price reaction as China takes the wind out of Bitcoin's sails," said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo.  "The recent rebound from just below $40,000 has likely run its course for now." 

Thus begins the opening chapter in the upcoming epic Sino-Salvadorian conflict.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 24, 2021, 09:51:40 AM
So big Adam Tooze thoughts in his substack on Evergrande. Still don't know what to think or which of the options of what's going on are more concerning :lol: :ph34r:
QuoteChartbook on Shutdown #4 - Neither Chernobyl Nor Lehman
Watching the world watching China's Evergrande crisis
Adam Tooze
Sep 22   

As John Authors argues in one of his latest columns, there is little doubt that anxiety about the Evergrande crisis has been moving global markets in recent days, though there are plenty of other stories to worry about.

This latest incident is one more demonstration of the eerie fact that in the first decades of the 21st century, the trajectory of global capitalism has come to hinge on the development of China, a country ever more clearly in the grip of a one-party communist regime.

As the FT reports, even in recent months, big Western money was flowing into Evergrande.

As late as August, BlackRock bought five different Evergrande dollar bonds for its high yield funds. Across its huge portfolio, BlackRock's total exposure runs to perhaps $400 million. As far as BlackRock is concerned that is a drop in the ocean, but it is indicative of the fact that China is a story, "you just have to be part of".

As the FT reminds its readers: "China has long been the biggest engine of global prosperity, contributing 28 per cent of GDP growth worldwide from 2013 to 2018 — more than twice the share of the US — according to a study by the IMF."


Watching the China watching

Not only is watching China something we have to do. We are actually at a point where how we observe China, how we stand in relation to China has come to define how we relate to the world and who we are in the eyes of others.

In other words, we not only watch China, but we watch how we watch China.

In Niklas Lumann's terms we are in the realm of second-order observation.
   
In Shutdown, my book on the corona crisis, I highlight the way in which the Chernobyl analogy served to cloud the outside view of events in China in January-February 2020. Wuhan, it turned out, was not a provincial town deep behind the Iron Curtain in the 1980s Soviet Union.

Today, faced with the Evergrande financial crisis what do we do? The first analogy that has been readily to hand is Lehman.

Even one of China's leading business papers, Caixin, resorted to the Lehman analogy in its excellent "warts and all" expose on Evergrande.


The Caixin report is highly recommended. It is at least as meaty as anything published by any Western news outlet. But, as Bill Bishop points out, this headline was confined to the English edition of Caixin.

Contagion?

Of course, there are similarities between the two cases that come to mind:

Evergrande is like Lehman in that it has speculated on real estate. It has a lot of debt spread across the entire Chinese economy and Chinese society. It is opaque. It is worrying.

And the Lehman analogy, unlike the Chernobyl analogy, does at least express a sense of entanglement on our part with the events in China.

Chernobyl happened to the Soviets. Lehman happened to "us".


But is Evergrande really Lehman? Closer examination suggests that the Evergrande crisis is not like Lehman at all.

The question of contagion is what concerns the markets. In the Evergrande case, there is some dispute between market insiders, but the majority of commentators seem to have decided that is not a Lehman-style issue.

Western observers are quick to point out that since China's banking system is ultimately state-backed there is no real risk of panic spreading.

You might think that this was reassuring. From the aftermath of the Lehman crisis, TARP etc you could draw the conclusion that ultimately the Western banks are state-backed too and the sooner this is made explicit in a big crisis, the better. But that is not generally the gist of the Evergrande commentary.

The point is that China is different. "CCP-controlled. State-owned. Rules are different." As Robert Armstrong succinctly puts it: "The whole point of China's mostly self-contained financial system is that most of the debt is owed by one part of the country to another. The party is in control of all of those parts, and so the debt is, essentially, whatever the party says it is."

This is a way, not of expanding the argument, not of turning the mirror back on the West (is debt in the West now owed by one part of the country to another?), but of shutting the train of thought down.


After all, market players in the West have other things to worry about. So long as there will not be a general meltdown that is all they need to know. Evergrande is not Lehman because China is different. Great. Time to move on.

Controlled Demolition

That quick move to dismiss contagion is convenient also because it avoid wrestling with another more unsettling difference.

The more basic difference between Lehman and Evergrande, is that crisis in China was deliberately brought about.

Unlike the disastrous chain reaction at Lehman, this is a controlled demolition, deliberately triggered by the regime.


Beijing is doing what critics have been asking China to do for a while - to deflate the housing bubble. It is doing what the West did not do in 2007-2008, i.e use regulatory intervention to manage a hard landing short of outright crash.

The backdrop as is spelled out in this excellent episode of the Odd Lots podcast with Travis Lundy, is the entanglement of the system of private property and local government finance that was created during the reform process in the 1990s.

In 1995 public finances were reorganized and the ability of local government to borrow was curtailed. That was followed in 1998 by a land management law that allowed land to be sold to private parties. Thus, local government discovered that it could finance itself by selling land and raising debts through off-balance sheet SPV that used land as collateral. Property developers became giant hoarders of land, which was then developed and sold to households who lacked other remunerative ways of investing. "So you have the local governments in bed with the real estate developers who are all kind of aligned with seeing property prices go up because they own the land banks, which they bought five years ago. And then all of the populace, you know, that's their savings vehicle. Obviously they want the value of that saving vehicle to go up. So, no one's really interested in seeing prices go down, except for those people who don't have real estate already."

Home-ownership rates are staggeringly high in China. But, there is also a severe dispersion in property prices, which creates a two-tier system amongst property owners.

As a private developer without direct state backing, Evergrande secured its position by being willing to invest in the second-tier cities and built a dense network of political connections there.

It was a key node in an entrenched network of capital, private interests and political connections.


In 2020 Kenneth S. Rogoff Yuanchen Yang came out with an important NBER paper summarizing the scale of the problem.

In terms of scale of investment, the Chinese real estate and construction sector is at least twice the size of its US counterpart and three times as important in relation to GDP. In cities it accounts for c. 17 percent of employment. Its share in local public revenue stands at about 1/3. Real estate accounts for c. 80 percent of household wealth in China, versus a share of around 30 percent in the US.

Strategic intent

The campaign to rein in this gigantic growth machine began in earnest in October 2017 when Xi gave his speech to the 19th Party Congress with the famous line: "houses are for living in, not for speculation".

In November 2018 the PBoC red-flagged the huge level of debt in private property developers like Evergrande. At that point the interest rate at which Evergrande borrowed popped to 13 percent. No one could be in any doubt about its status as a high-risk business.

In August 2020, the Chinese regulators announced their three red lines, imposing tough new financing limits on property companies. As Robert Armstrong's compilation makes clear, Evergrande ran foul of all three.

New funding was effectively cut off and a cat and mouse game ensued between Evergrande, its creditors and the authorities.


There can be little doubt about the overall strategic intent of the regime. As Bill Bishop remarks: "Xi set out three tough battles for the government- poverty, pollution and financial risks. Significant progress has been made on the first two, but the battle against financial risks has lagged. Perhaps Evergrande will mark a turning point in that battle, "

In an important essay for Carnegie, Michael Pettis focuses on the concerns of the regulators: "By clamping down on leverage among property developers, Beijing was hoping to accomplish at least two things. First, this measure was intended directly to address surging debt among one of the most indebted sectors in China's economy. Second, the hope was it would help stabilize the housing market by constraining what regulators believed was one of the sources of speculative frenzy, the debt-fueled competition among developers to scoop up as much land as possible."

For Pettis, the economist, the problem is the structure of lending: "There was very little credit differentiation in the lending markets. Banks, insurance companies, and bond funds fell over each other to lend to large, systemically important borrowers. Moral hazard, in other words, underpinned the entire credit market. That is why Chinese regulators have decided to have a showdown with creditors over Evergrande. By convincing lenders that they will no longer stand behind large Chinese borrowers, they are trying to transform the country's financial system by making Chinese lenders more reluctant to fund nonproductive investment projects."

As Pettis points out, Xi has accompanied the push over the summer of 2021 with a key paper in the party's theoretical journal Qiushi on "quality growth".

The recent focus of industrial policy on high tech and green growth fits squarely with this emphasis.

So, if we set aside the misleading analogy to the unplanned catastrophe of Lehman, and see Evergrande as an exercise of deliberate policy, the question is whether Beijing's strategy will actually work.

Risk 1 - There are hidden issues & Beijing is not fully in control of the situation.

As Bloomberg reports: "China has left the market on tenterhooks," said Zhou Hao, senior economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. "Traders can't figure out Beijing's thoughts on how the Evergrande crisis will be resolved and how weak the economy is allowed to be. In the near term, the PBOC will inject sufficient short-term liquidity to maintain ample cash supply." What if the crisis-managers misjudge?

Or, as Bill Bishop remarks: "This silence looks like they are still working through the magnitude of the problem and so are not willing to make any significant statements until they have a fuller grasp of the extent of the mess and a plan to resolve it. Not comforting if that guess is correct .... As this newsletter has discussed several times, I would not be confident that the regulators have a full understanding of all the Evergrande liabilities and interconnections with other firms. Xu Jiayin has been masterful, at least until now, at obfuscating the full extent of Evergrande's debts .... "

Bad as this could get, if we assume that the regime can ultimately contain financial contagion, the work-out may be messy, but it is manageable.

Risk 2 Financial distress will spread

Pettis in his Carnegie essay points to a more fundamental set of difficulties. If Beijing is serious about resetting its entire financial model then it faces a huge task: "To erase the assumption of moral hazard would mean wiping out the structural underpinnings of the country's credit markets. Financial markets, in other words, would have to undergo a major repricing of credit and a corresponding reallocation of credit risk portfolios. The problem is that there would be a vicious circularity to this process. Bankers wouldn't know how to restructure credit portfolios until they understood what the restructured market would look like. But knowing this would require answers to questions like: Who will still be able to access credit? How much and in what form? At what prices, and what guarantees, if any, will remain? But, of course, they could only know what the restructured market would look like after they have collectively restructured their credit portfolios. Among other things, this means that individual lenders should rationally wait for all other lenders to restructure their portfolios before doing so themselves."

This would imply a prolonged credit stop that could have disastrous effects.

Furthermore, as the credit system becomes glued up, the risks begin to spread. As Robert Armstrong remarks: "The ugliest number on Evergrande's balance sheet is not captured in the red lines ratios at all. It is, instead, Evergrande's Rmb951bn ($142bn) in short-term payables." All those contractors with unpaid invoices will find themselves under financial pressure and will pass that on to their creditors.

This is what Pettis calls "financial distress": "In finance, indirect financial distress refers to adverse changes in the behavior of stakeholders who are responding to a rising risk of insolvency, with this behavior in turn further raising the probability of insolvency. Financial distress behavior is a highly pro-cyclical process during which an incremental deterioration in credit conditions suddenly begins to accelerate, so a linear decline in credit becomes nonlinear. Which is a big deal that they do not seem fully prepared for .... ".

To address this risk of spiraling credit contraction, Pettit urges rapid and decisive action: "Property purchases have fallen very quickly, and retail investors in wealth management products have already organized visible protests in many cities. Meanwhile, suppliers and contractors are reeling from potential losses, and since many of them have been paid in real estate, they are likely to try to sell these assets as quickly as possible to satisfy their own liquidity needs. This cannot help but disrupt the real estate market further. What is more, Evergrande's 200,000 employees, not to mention hundreds of thousands of employees at other property developers and at affected upstream and downstream businesses, are probably beginning to feel fairly aggrieved. Before financial distress spreads further throughout the economy, regulators must address this as rapidly as possible by drawing very clear lines about what will and what will not be rescued so as to suppress the uncertainty Evergrande has created in the economy."

Risk 1 is transient, risk 2 is more serious because the real estate sector is so large.

Clearly, pricking the real estate bubble is a hugely delicate political operation with vast ramifications for the economy as a whole.

The question is, can the political economy of China, not just the regime but households, regional governments etc adjust. Will other sources of growth emerge? Will the regime stick the course?

One line argues that the real estate impasse reveals deep structural difficulties connected to demography and the exhaustion of easy sources of growth.

    As a piece in the FT by James Kynge and Sun Yu comments:
    "China's population is hardly growing. In 2020, only 12m babies were born, down from 14.65m a year earlier in a country of 1.4bn. The trend may well become more pronounced over the next decade as the number of women of peak childbearing age — between 22 to 35 — is due to fall by more than 30 per cent. Some experts are predicting that the birth rate could drop below 10m a year, throwing China's population into absolute decline and further dampening demand for property. Houze Song, an analyst at Chicago-based think-tank MacroPolo, says the situation is exacerbated by the phenomenon of "shrinking cities". After around three decades during which hundreds of millions of people left their rural villages to settle in cities, the biggest migration in human history has now dwindled to a trickle. About three quarters of the cities in China are in population decline, says Song. "A decade from now, even assuming that some people will leave for growth cities, more than 600m Chinese citizens will still live in shrinking cities.""

This is a version of the "middle-income trap" diagnosis of China's development problems.

Another line, is that regime will not stick the course in deflating the real estate bubble, because it hurts too much. The entire system is too wedded to growth targets. These require repeated stimulus to "top up" natural growth with a discretionary policy-driven element. That is most easily done by investment and that is concentrated in real estate. This is clearly the concern of Michael Pettis, who has long been arguing that China's growth model is unsustainable.

Similarly, Bill Bishop remarks: "Perhaps Evergrande will mark a turning point in that battle, or perhaps the problems run so deep that they will have to back off from the most stringent efforts to rein in real estate, as they have had to do after previous attempts to lance the festering economic and political boil that is PRC real estate."

But what about a third possibility? What if it actually works?

What if, along with assertion of dominance over tech, throttling of steel industry and push to end coal finance this is actually what a shifting of economic gear looks like?


I dont have a crystal ball or the insight of the real China experts, but in watching the China watchers, it is striking how rarely this question is posed.

It is possible that Xi and the real estate bubble are different. It is possible that they mark some point of culmination. But as I argued in a piece in Noema, drawing on the work of political economists like Victor Shih, the repeated pattern of China's development since the 1980s has been one of avoiding crisis by backing away from the brink.

Contrary to many predictions, the network of interest groups around the party in China seems, so far at least, not to produce either paralysis, or wars of attrition. Even before Xi, the regime showed a capacity to switch between growth regimes and macroeconomic settings.

And is this not the ultimate strategic aim? Is ultimate prize not the growth rate or political stability per se, but the autonomy of the regime? After all, the aim is to uphold the capacity of the CCP to shape China's future for the next century.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 24, 2021, 10:53:03 AM
Quote
For Pettis, the economist, the problem is the structure of lending: "There was very little credit differentiation in the lending markets. Banks, insurance companies, and bond funds fell over each other to lend to large, systemically important borrowers. Moral hazard, in other words, underpinned the entire credit market. That is why Chinese regulators have decided to have a showdown with creditors over Evergrande. By convincing lenders that they will no longer stand behind large Chinese borrowers, they are trying to transform the country's financial system by making Chinese lenders more reluctant to fund nonproductive investment projects."

Pettis is one of the more astute observers of the Chinese economy so what he says has credibility for me. But it Tooze's point is emphasize that this crisis is nothing like the US subprime crisis and the Lehman collapse, this passage doesn't help the case.  In fact it suggests it is very much like Lehman.  The moral hazard problem that Pettis mentions is exactly what manifested in US residential real estate in the early and mid-oughts.  The false alchemy of securitization and CDOs caused originators to lower credit standards until there were no standards, safe in the knowledge they could offload them to the securitizing middle men; all of this was egged on by a White House pushing its "ownership society" ideology and a Congress not willing to cross the RE and finance lobbies.  And just as Pettis claims this crisis was triggered "(b)y convincing lenders that they will no longer stand behind large Chinese borrowers", the 2008 crisis was triggered when Treasury refused to back stop Lehman on moral hazard grounds, triggering a cascade of trade fails and losses throughout the interlinked financial system and causing the large financial players left standing to horde what capital they had and retreat behind their moats.  Which again is similar the "credit stop" Pettis postulates in "Risk 2"

Clearly are salient differences between China 2021 and US 2008 that the article delineates.  But I'm wary of the tone of Chinese exceptionalism that seems to run through Tooze's piece (Note: I'm a big fan of Tooze overall and follow his twitter) - it almost veers into the unfortunate history of exoticizing the East as a strange and mysterious place.  The reality is that virtually all financial crises in all times and places share certain essential characteristics.  Institutional differences exist and matter and we should care about the details.  But they shouldn't obscure the inherent commonalities.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 24, 2021, 01:55:43 PM
I think that's fair. There is a strand of Chinese exceptionalism that runs through Tooze's stuff in general lately.

Personally I think some degree of Chinese exceptionalism is justified because I can't think of another example of a state of that size achieving the modernisation it has, moving up the value chain quite rapidly and lifting the hundreds of millions of people out of poverty etc. It is, clearly, an enormous country and I don't think there is a comparison of a country emerging like China is probably since the rise of the US. The only other real examples I can think of are the post-war Asian Tigers and even then, this is on an utterly different (and exceptional) scale. Maybe if India makes the leap to a middle income country - and I wouldn't bet against it - it'll seem less exceptional. I also think the party state institutional set up matters.

Although I think his point isn't that it isn't Lehman necessarily - that's just almost being mentally shut down by market commentators from my read. But point taken on the degree to which Lehman was also partly deliberate - if the fallout wasn't - and I think there is a definite risk that this does cause a credit freeze in China and let's see where that spreads. And also what the PBoC does in response if it does start spreading - especially if what might be prudent central banking policy is felt to clash with a political agenda by the party, that strikes me as a potentially unique risk.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 24, 2021, 02:10:34 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 24, 2021, 01:55:43 PM
The only other real examples I can think of are the post-war Asian Tigers and even then, this is on an utterly different (and exceptional) scale.

The scale was very different and there was skepticism that the model could be replicated at that scale. For one thing could the world financial system accommodate current account surpluses at that scale?

But that's basically what happened - start with an emphasis on broad based education, focus resources on the low end of the export-oriented manufacturing chain and gradually move up, suppress the exchange rate to keep exports competitive, use capital controls to mobilize investment funds domestically. 

The current account surpluses were enormous and the financial system endured stress but China was fortunate that this development stage coincided with the American unipolar moment and it was able to recycle the surpluses into accumulation of US dollar reserves at a staggering scale without collapsing the entire system.

QuoteMaybe if India makes the leap to a middle income country - and I wouldn't bet against it - it'll seem less exceptional.

India's problem is that it hasn't succeeded in educating the masses of its population the way that Korea, Taiwan and China did.  Compared to those countries at a similar stage of development there is a significant human capital deficit.  That's why one sees decent economic dynamism at the level of the educated middle classes but uneven development across regions and classes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 24, 2021, 07:01:32 PM
Meng Wanzhou has entered a deferred prosecution deal with US authorities, meaning the extradition proceedings have been dropped. She could, I believe, be leaving Canada as soon as this evening.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/meng-wanzhou-us-court-1.6188093

Hopefully we can get the two Michaels home soon.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 24, 2021, 08:35:51 PM
Apparently both Meng and the two Michaels have boarded planes and are returning to their respective homelands.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on September 24, 2021, 09:03:37 PM
I guess taking hostages does work.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on September 24, 2021, 10:12:24 PM
Yeah, not a great feeling about this news.  Happy for the Michaels of course.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 24, 2021, 11:33:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 24, 2021, 09:03:37 PM
I guess taking hostages does work.

Yeah... but honestly, I don't think it's that far fetched to view the Meng arrest as a hostage taking either. How many billionaire-dynasty executives of her caliber get arrested for that level of alleged malfeasance?

I mean, I loathe Xi and the CCP regime, and I'm all for the wealthy elites being subject to the law and all that... but her arrest did seem a bit extraordinary, to be honest. It seemed a bit political.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zoupa on September 25, 2021, 01:47:09 AM
A month ago one of them was convicted of spying on China and got 11 years. China is really a joke isn't it.

This saga should discourage any and all visits to China for any reason from anyone holding a foreign passport.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on September 25, 2021, 02:42:34 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on September 25, 2021, 01:47:09 AM
A month ago one of them was convicted of spying on China and got 11 years. China is really a joke isn't it.

This saga should discourage any and all visits to China for any reason from anyone holding a foreign passport.

:yes:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on September 25, 2021, 07:56:24 AM
Quote from: DGuller on September 24, 2021, 09:03:37 PM
I guess taking hostages does work.

I don't think that is what happened.  I doubt the Americans weighed the two Michaels in the decision to abandon the prosecution.  But once the decision was made to bail it served American interests to include the two Michaels in the deal.

The reason the Americans had to bail on the prosecution is that it was very likely that the extradition request was going to be denied.  Justice Holmes' decision was going to be made next month.  During the hearing she repeatedly expressed doubt that a prima facie case of fraud had been established.  She repeatedly asked for an explanation of how it could be fraud against the HSBC when the defendant made it clear that there was a link and HSBC provided the banking assistance despite knowing that fact.

The Americans must have known their case was in trouble and that this deferred prosecution deal, without a fine, without a guilty plea, and without any cooperation agreement, was the best they could get.   

Quote from: Zoupa on September 25, 2021, 01:47:09 AM
A month ago one of them was convicted of spying on China and got 11 years. China is really a joke isn't it.

This saga should discourage any and all visits to China for any reason from anyone holding a foreign passport.

I agree this should discourage any and all visits to China.  They clearly held the two Michaels as hostages.  But China is definitely not a joke. The takeaway is the world has become a very unstable and dangerous place.  The Americans should never have sought the extradition - but the evidence seems clear that Trump wanted to apply pressure on China and the US engaged in a creative fraud prosecution to further that objective.  China retaliated by grabbing innocent Canadians. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zoupa on September 25, 2021, 08:54:07 PM
I meant that the rule of law is a joke. It's not even thinly veiled.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 03:50:46 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on September 25, 2021, 08:54:07 PM
I meant that the rule of law is a joke. It's not even thinly veiled.

Were there people under the impression China ever cared about the Rule of Law?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 27, 2021, 04:55:15 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 03:50:46 PM
Were there people under the impression China ever cared about the Rule of Law?

Yes. There's been a distinct degradation regarding the rule of law in China in the last decade or so. At one point, moving towards genuine rule of law and building institutions to enshrine it was considered a real possibility inside China. That got dialed back to some sort of "let's conduct ourselves as if we value to rule of law, with only key exemptions as necessary". Then the list of "key exemptions" has grown and at this point it's pretty clear that there is not much left.

But yeah, at one point it looked like it might have gone differently. At least that's what I thought, and what I saw reported from inside China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 05:17:09 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 27, 2021, 04:55:15 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on September 27, 2021, 03:50:46 PM
Were there people under the impression China ever cared about the Rule of Law?

Yes. There's been a distinct degradation regarding the rule of law in China in the last decade or so. At one point, moving towards genuine rule of law and building institutions to enshrine it was considered a real possibility inside China. That got dialed back to some sort of "let's conduct ourselves as if we value to rule of law, with only key exemptions as necessary". Then the list of "key exemptions" has grown and at this point it's pretty clear that there is much left.

But yeah, at one point it looked like it might have gone differently. At least that's what I thought, and what I saw reported from inside China.

I recall a time when China wanted to give some comfort to people investing there that their investments would be relatively safe and free of overt government interference.  But I don't recall a period of time in which that actually occurred.  There were always special "rules" and open corruption.  And always the threat that if someone in the party did not like you, you should probably get as much of your investment out of the country asap.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 28, 2021, 02:27:01 PM
I think you've both put your finger on it. The concept of rule of law made some progress in China, but only in instrumental terms, and not out of principle, so it has no staying power. The ugly intellectual heritage of Legalism is always lurking about in Chinese history and it seems to have found secure footing in the mind of Xi.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 29, 2021, 11:57:41 PM
The energy crisis is hitting China quite badly :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/how-bad-is-chinas-energy-crisis

Not helped by Xi's trade war with Australia of course.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 12:32:09 AM
Yeah, my wife was telling me last week how most of China has scheduled rolling electricity shutdowns. According to what she and her parents are hearing, it's not just in the North East but more widespread.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 12:34:33 AM
There's also the bit that apparently now you require three doctors to sign off on non-medically-necessary abortions in an effort to slow down the population decline.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on September 30, 2021, 12:52:22 AM
What are they signing off on? "In my expert opinion, she really does want to get an abortion"?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on September 30, 2021, 04:09:54 AM
This woman has paid enough to get an abortion.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 30, 2021, 04:36:57 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 12:32:09 AM
Yeah, my wife was telling me last week how most of China has scheduled rolling electricity shutdowns. According to what she and her parents are hearing, it's not just in the North East but more widespread.
At least 20 provinces (pretty big/important ones) have announced shutdowns so far:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAWdAVJXIAAph9Y?format=jpg&name=small)

And it's probably a sign of where things are that Global Times is publishing this:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235145.shtml

Given the trade war with Australia which isn't great for a big coal importer, and with the new Siberian gas pipe China's apparently turning more to Moscow to increase its oil and gas supply - so not just Europe becoming increasingly dependent on/tied to Russia but also China.

But in terms of gas prices especially it looks like we're moving back to the 2000s pre-shale sort of levels.

Seems to me there is a risk (especially with the discombobulation of vaccine/endemic countries and zero covid countries) that we end up with rolling supply and demand crises for a while :ph34r:

Edit: And it's an obvious point but if China has an electricity problem, then the world will shortly have a manufacturing/supply problem.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 30, 2021, 10:50:15 AM
Quote from: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 12:34:33 AM
There's also the bit that apparently now you require three doctors to sign off on non-medically-necessary abortions in an effort to slow down the population decline.

just claim to be a Uyghur, you'll get your abortion.

that said: how long before all chinese women are forced to have 3 children? End of the decade? Or will it be a bit longer?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on September 30, 2021, 12:49:56 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 29, 2021, 11:57:41 PM
The energy crisis is hitting China quite badly :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/how-bad-is-chinas-energy-crisis

Not helped by Xi's trade war with Australia of course.

It's shocking how Xi's attempts to re-assert central control over the economy is leading to a series of bad policy outcomes... :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on September 30, 2021, 01:04:18 PM
Is Mandate of Heaven still a thing in Chinese culture?  I imagine looking up at starry nights will make some people think about heaven.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 30, 2021, 01:07:01 PM
Quote from: Barrister on September 30, 2021, 12:49:56 PM
It's shocking how Xi's attempts to re-assert central control over the economy is leading to a series of bad policy outcomes... :hmm:

Yes this appears to be an Econ 101 fail
QuoteEnergy companies are, in effect, rationing electricity to industrial and domestic users under orders from president Xi Xinping's officials to not pass on the higher costs from rising prices of imported coal.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 01:09:39 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 30, 2021, 10:50:15 AM
just claim to be a Uyghur, you'll get your abortion.

I think the downside of being registered as belonging to a minority subject to official suspicion makes it not worth it in most cases.

Quotethat said: how long before all chinese women are forced to have 3 children? End of the decade? Or will it be a bit longer?

I don't think they'll be able to get away with that. Heavy incentives and pressure, for sure, but not explicitly forced. Too many complications and factors in play. But "have children for the glory of the nation" campaigns? And incentives for multiple children and censure for few or none? That's probably coming sooner than in a decade.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 01:15:15 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 30, 2021, 01:04:18 PM
Is Mandate of Heaven still a thing in Chinese culture?  I imagine looking up at starry nights will make some people think about heaven.

Not explicitly in those terms. But not having the confidence of the population definitely is, and mishandling disasters and causing self-inflicted wounds is certainly going to impact that confidence. I'm pretty confident it does drive (at least partially) the internal power struggles of the CCP. And the population getting frustrated enough to turn against the CCP is definitely considered a realistic nightmare scenario by the regime, I think. The Chinese people can get pretty intense when they get frustrated and take to the streets....
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on September 30, 2021, 01:28:27 PM
I admit I am getting a mental image of women being kidnapped by the government on the walk home and artificially inseminated.
Seems a natural flip of over zealous population control.

More seriously I do wonder how they'll incentivise/punish those failing to have many kids. There's tried and tested techniques but they're expensive as fuck and don't give the massive pay off the regime wants.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 30, 2021, 01:31:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 01:09:39 PM
I think the downside of being registered as belonging to a minority subject to official suspicion makes it not worth it in most cases.
Yeah for sure. Although historically I think one child policy only applied to Han women so you'd get weird situations of very non-Muslim, who'd stopped practicing years ago or whatever but were identified as ethnically/nationally Hui Chinese with multiple kids.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: fromtia on September 30, 2021, 01:35:37 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 01:15:15 PM
The Chinese people can get pretty intense when they get frustrated and take to the streets....

Intensely rendered into petfood by tank tracks perhaps?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 02:04:47 PM
Quote from: fromtia on September 30, 2021, 01:35:37 PM
Intensely rendered into petfood by tank tracks perhaps?

There are hundreds if not thousands of demonstrations against the regime every year, usually on narrow local issues. They don't typically result in tanks grinding the protestors down. The leaders are often (but far from always) punished, but it doesn't stop further protests from occuring.

Of course, if any given protest starts looking like it might be an existential threat to the regime they crack down hard. But ultimately, the tools for the crack down - the military and the police - are drawn from the people. And if the military and police are sympathetic enough to the protestors (because the regime has been fucking up enough), then it'll start looking really dark for the regime.

We're nowhere near, of course, but it's not an unrealistic scenario... one day, perhaps.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 02:07:47 PM
Quote from: Tyr on September 30, 2021, 01:28:27 PM
More seriously I do wonder how they'll incentivise/punish those failing to have many kids. There's tried and tested techniques but they're expensive as fuck and don't give the massive pay off the regime wants.

The usual stuff with... access to urban residence permits, access to schools, access to support services, financial incentives, different wage tiers, different levels of access to bureaucratic support, tax incentives, access to promotion at work and within the party... for people with the required number of kids. And, of course, denial of same for people with the wrong number of kids.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on September 30, 2021, 02:18:55 PM
Quote from: Jacob on September 30, 2021, 02:04:47 PM
Of course, if any given protest starts looking like it might be an existential threat to the regime they crack down hard. But ultimately, the tools for the crack down - the military and the police - are drawn from the people. And if the military and police are sympathetic enough to the protestors (because the regime has been fucking up enough), then it'll start looking really dark for the regime.

We're nowhere near, of course, but it's not an unrealistic scenario... one day, perhaps.

Indeed, the greatest fear of any authoritarian regime is having the troops disobey an order to gun down people just like them.  Because then the troops have to overthrow the regime top avoid punishment for disobeying an order.

During the '89 protests, the regular army near Beijing suffered from "traffic jams" that prevented them from going into the city - because the unit commanders figured the troops would disobey orders to massacre the population.  The regime had to bring in troops from elsewhere (mostly Mongolian, I believe) to get troops that they were confident would commit atrocities against the people of Beijing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 01, 2021, 05:18:28 AM
This could have gone in the AUKUS thread - but it seems like a broader issue, and problem, with Xi's foreign policy style than just Australia. As telling, I think, is the relatively muted regional reception to AUKUS - no-one seems to be protesting it: Indonesia and Vietnam are cautious, Singapore optimistic, Philippines, Japan and India broadly seem to welcome it. I feel like if China had succeeded in building relations in its neighbourhood, instead of scaring its neighbours, we'd see more protests on China's behalf - and I think we would have even 5 years ago:
QuoteHow Xi Jinping lost Australia
Canberra went from welcoming the 'Asian Century' to arming itself with nuclear-powered submarines in less than a decade of the Chinese president's rule.
By Zoya Sheftalovich and Stuart Lau   
September 27, 2021 12:11 pm

SYDNEY — Nearly 10 years ago, Australia thought it was on the cusp of a beautiful friendship with China: It was opening up its economy to Beijing, wanted to teach Mandarin in schools and invited the Chinese president to address parliament.

Now, that's all over.

These days, Australia is buying up nuclear-powered submarines to fend off Beijing, barring the country from key markets and bristling at its relentless attempts to coerce Australian politicians and media.

In part, the head-spinning shift reflects rising global wariness of China's increasingly pugilistic behavior.

But for Chinese President Xi Jinping, it also offers a remarkable example of how his relentless attempts to control the economic and cultural climate overseas can rapidly boomerang — even in a country receptive to Beijing's overtures. Instead of bullying Australia into submission, Xi's "wolf warrior" tactics simply pushed Australia right back into its traditional military nexus, with the U.S. and U.K., costing Beijing a potentially valuable partner in the region.

Here's how things turned sour so quickly.

2012: Australia foresees an 'Asian Century'

When Xi took control of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, the Australian government was in the midst of a geostrategic pivot.

In its 2012 Australia in the Asian Century White Paper, Canberra set out national objectives that included teaching Asian languages such as Mandarin in schools, strengthening trade relations with Beijing and opening up its economy to Asia.

The white paper was part of Australia's broader move away from its colonial Commonwealth roots and position as America's deputy sheriff in the Asia-Pacific, and toward carving out a role as a regional power in its own right.

Canberra naturally turned to Beijing, the largest player in the region — and then, as now, its top trading partner — for a landmark free-trade agreement and relationship reset.

Australia and China concluded negotiations for the trade pact in November 2014, with Xi invited to address a joint sitting of Australia's parliament — an honor usually reserved for U.S. commanders in chief.


"We should increase mutual understanding and be sincere and trustworthy partners," Xi told parliament, adding China and Australia were "not burdened by historical problems between us ... We have every reason to go beyond a commercial partnership to become strategic partners who have a shared vision and pursue common goals."

Some thought it was the dawn of a new age between the two countries. Spoiler alert: It wasn't.

2013: Xi wants the 'dominant position'

While Australia was pivoting to China, Beijing was orchestrating its own pivot: Xi had delivered a very different address to his countrymen before his speech to the Australian parliament.

In January 2013, shortly after becoming the chairman of the Communist Party and just months before becoming Chinese president, Xi laid out plans to make China a global superpower through economic and technological might.

"We must concentrate our efforts on bettering our own affairs, continually broadening our comprehensive national power," Xi told his Communist Party comrades in the speech. The focus would be on "building a socialism that is superior to capitalism, and laying the foundation for a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position."

That meant going after the Western alliance —with Australia as the weakest link. So while publicly promising sincerity and trust, Xi secretly sought to squeeze the island nation.

First came the cyberattacks, with Chinese state-linked hackers going after the Australian parliament, the country's Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian National University and numerous others.

Then came attacks on Australia's Chinese-language media, with reports of coercion, bullying and intimidation at any outlet daring to depart from the Communist Party line.

Reports emerged that China had reached deep into the Australian political establishment, seeking to steer policy in China's favor. Investigations found Beijing-linked businesses were the largest sources of donations with foreign ties, and the money went to both sides of the political spectrum.

The financial intrusions rattled Australian politics. In 2017, Australian Labor Party Senator Sam Dastyari was forced to resign over his ties to Chinese Communist Party-linked donors. 

Beijing sought control and influence in overt ways, too.

Later in 2017, China's security chief warned Labor leadership the party would risk losing support among Australia's Chinese diaspora community if it didn't back an extradition treaty Beijing wanted.

And over the past 18 months, China hit Australia with a series of trade restrictions and tariffs in response to Canberra's call for an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, which emerged from the Chinese city of Wuhan.

Meanwhile, China was also building its military might in the region, making sweeping claims to the South China Sea and squeezing Hong Kong and Taiwan — moving southward toward Australia. 

The combined effect drew from the entire "wolf-warrior" playbook, named after a popular Chinese action film.


And it backfired.

2021: Break-up complete

Australia, having once extended Beijing a hand of friendship, is now back in the arms of its old associates.

Earlier in September, Canberra announced a wide-ranging security partnership with the U.S. and U.K. The pact, dubbed AUKUS, comes amid a broader Australian attempt to pivot its economy away from China.

"The level of Chinese economic coercion and cyber espionage against Australia was once unimaginable, so our security agencies have learned to consider worst-case possibilities," said Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at the Australian National University and author of "Indo-Pacific Empire."

AUKUS, he said, "is an alignment made in Beijing."

Under the new Anglo-American alliance, the U.S., U.K. and Australia have agreed to share advanced technologies with one another, including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, quantum computing, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities. Australia also abandoned a submarine deal with France worth more than €50 billion to acquire American nuclear-powered submarines instead.

"It's a remarkable collapse in Australia-China relations and a massive deterioration in Australia's security outlook that's led to this outcome," said Michael Shoebridge, a director at the influential Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) think tank, which receives funding from the Australian and other governments.


Xi "caused a trifecta of changes" that would have been unthinkable just a decade ago, Shoebridge said: A shift in Australian policy that deemed nuclear-powered technology too sensitive and expensive as recently as 2016; and a shift in U.S. and U.K. policy that allowed the two nations to share nuclear tech with each other only until recently.

"That's a pretty radical, remarkable shift in three nations' politics in just five and a bit years," Shoebridge added.

Indeed, the change was percolating in 2016 when Canberra blocked bids by two Chinese companies to buy electricity distributor Ausgrid, citing national security concerns. Two years later, Australia fully banned Chinese tech giant Huawei from its 5G network.

Now, the federal government is considering stripping Chinese company Landbridge of its 99-year lease of the strategically crucial Port of Darwin — only six years after the regional government awarded the contract to the shock of then-U.S. President Barack Obama.

U.S. Marines regularly rotate through Darwin for training exercises, and Australia's Defense Minister Peter Dutton earlier this year proposed expanding their numbers and forming a joint training brigade with Australian troops.


Dutton warned Canberra must be prepared for whatever lurks "on or below the horizon" amid growing tensions with China.

Where's the EU?

When Australia tore up its submarine deal with France, President Emmanuel Macron's instinct was to blame Canberra and Washington.

But what neither Macron — nor the EU leadership — mentioned was the economic and security threat China has posed to Australia in recent years.

It's not that EU officials were oblivious to Beijing's coercive tactics against Canberra. Australia's Trade Minister Dan Tehan, visiting Brussels earlier this year at a time when trade talks were still on a good track, admitted Canberra was keen to have closer trade ties with the EU while facing intense economic pressure from Beijing.

"What I can say is, from an Australian point of view, what we've done is to stick true to our principles," Tehan told POLITICO in April. "If that leads to consequences, where we might run into disputes with certain countries, then ... we will put out our sovereignty first."


France is now threatening to cut off trade talks between the EU and Australia, accusing Canberra of being an untrustworthy partner in the wake of AUKUS.

"The complete absence in the current media coverage of whether the seriousness of Australian security concerns were fully appreciated within French circles is symptomatic of a core European shortcoming," said Alessio Patalano, professor of war at King's College London.

It's an omission that longtime observers find glaring.


"The systemic challenge of China hugely outweighs the relationship difficulties between France and Australia," said ASPI's Shoebridge.

Did Xi still win?

The fact numerous European leaders swiftly turned on Australia and the U.S. in the wake of the AUKUS announcement has some wondering whether Xi ultimately won out despite losing Australia's goodwill.

According to Shoebridge, that's a simplistic view. He argues once the dust settles, the EU, including France — will come back to the transatlantic table.

"I don't think it will play much to China's favor," Shoebridge said. "The thing that will keep driving [the West] together are the actions of China under Xi."

Shoebridge pointed to research that shows the collapse of public perceptions of China around the world.

"Now Xi has to face an Australia with accelerating military capabilities, up to and including nuclear submarines, brought about due to the direction he's taking China," he said.


Zoya Sheftalovich reported from Sydney. Stuart Lau reported from Brussels.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 01, 2021, 10:29:15 AM
I hope we will see a more clear pivot in Canada also.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 01, 2021, 01:04:45 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 01, 2021, 05:18:28 AM
This could have gone in the AUKUS thread - but it seems like a broader issue, and problem, with Xi's foreign policy style than just Australia. As telling, I think, is the relatively muted regional reception to AUKUS - no-one seems to be protesting it: Indonesia and Vietnam are cautious, Singapore optimistic, Philippines, Japan and India broadly seem to welcome it. I feel like if China had succeeded in building relations in its neighbourhood, instead of scaring its neighbours, we'd see more protests on China's behalf - and I think we would have even 5 years ago:]

Agreed.
The US is not universally loved, but it is a known quantity.  Nations in the Pacific region don't have to worry about a surprise US invasion, or a border dispute, or bullying over the exercise of economic rights in a sea zone.  China was a known quantity but under XI it has become unpredictable.  And of course for most of these nations China is much closer. The days of the US as singular regional hegemon are past, leaving it as a potentially useful counterweight.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on October 01, 2021, 01:10:27 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 01, 2021, 10:29:15 AM
I hope we will see a more clear pivot in Canada also.
You should vote differently if that is your wish.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 01, 2021, 01:11:57 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 01, 2021, 10:29:15 AM
I hope we will see a more clear pivot in Canada also.
Yeah - I think Canada and New Zealand have faced a similar but maybe little bit lighter version of what's happened with Australia. But I think that with more coercion from China that may shift.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 02, 2021, 09:07:35 AM
Looks like there's some internal power-struggles going on - and obviously at the same time I think something like 30 Chinese planes entered Taiwanese airspace which Taiwan says was the largest incursion they've ever seen:
QuoteChina anti-graft watchdog probes former justice minister
Reuters
(https://www.reuters.com/resizer/Rya9p3VzO1Cqyo9mRNcbXSVsMbI=/960x0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/WT44Q7JMXRPU3GYWFKKPP25MUM.jpg)
Fu Zhenghua, is pictured during a meeting in Beijing, China on Jan. 17, 2011, when he was head of Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

BEIJING, Oct 2 (Reuters) - China's top anti-corruption watchdog said on Saturday it is investigating a former justice minister, Fu Zhenghua, the latest high-ranking domestic security official to be brought before the authorities in a broad crackdown.

The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said it suspected Fu of "serious violations of discipline and national laws", in a statement that offered no other details about the investigation.

Fu, a former rising star of law enforcement, and the commission could not be reached for comment.

President Xi Jinping started a campaign of purges of China's domestic security apparatus last year, seeking to ensure police, prosecutors and judges are "absolutely loyal, absolutely pure and absolutely reliable".


In addition to security, industries from tech to entertainment have come under sweeping crackdowns by the authorities in recent months, with celebrities told to be more patriotic, cryptocurrency trading banned and a giant stock market listing halted.

Fu, 66, was deputy head of the Ministry of Public Security before becoming justice minister in 2018. He led a number of high-profile investigations and crackdowns, including a probe into former security czar Zhou Yongkang, who was found guilty of corruption.

Since 2015, he headed an office dedicated to the suppression of what the ruling Communist Party calls "evil cults", including the banned spiritual movement Falun Gong.


Fu's self-described "heavy fist" approach to law enforcement had won him plaudits from Chinese state media, which has previously said his campaigns helped clean up Chinese society and tackle graft.

"Fu might not be able to get any lawyer to represent him," said a political observer who asked to remain anonymous for fear of repercussions. When Fu was the vice head of China's Public Security Ministry, many human rights lawyers were rounded up and imprisoned.

The anti-graft watchdog also said on Thursday that Sun Lijun, a former deputy head of the Ministry of Public Security, was expelled from the party and his post for "serious violations of party discipline and national laws".

Sun had resorted to all means to achieve his political objectives and formed gangs, seriously undermining the unity of the party, it said in a statement.
Reporting by Yew Lun Tian; Editing by William Mallard

The line on Fu not being able to get a lawyer having previously targeted many human rights lawyers is sort of what made me post this though... :blush:

Edit: Also - pointed out by Alex Clarkson - and I'm sure people are aware of who it is in China. But it'd be really interesting from the outside to see a list of who has been purged/targeted in the Chinese state and big business in the last 2 years or so because I feel like I've seen a lot of individual stories but nothing looking at the overall picture and it feels like there's been a lot :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 02, 2021, 10:16:59 AM
Live by the politically motivated corruption purge, die by the politically motivated corruption purge, I guess.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 02, 2021, 07:43:05 PM
I see Xi has not enjoyed the Dragon Age franchise :(
QuoteChina to ban video games featuring same-sex relationships, 'effeminate' men and moral choices
Lily Wakefield
Sat, 2 October 2021, 10:50 am·2-min read

China will ban video games featuring same-sex relationships, 'effeminate' men and moral choices, according to a leaked memo.

The internal memo from a recent internal training by the state-backed gaming association was revealed by the South China Morning Post, lays out new restrictions for approving video games in China.

According to the publication, the memo said that video games must not be viewed as "pure entertainment", and should instead convey "a correct set of values".

Games that feature queer relationships or "effeminate males", the memo states, should not be approved for release in China.

"If regulators can't tell the character's gender immediately, the setting of the characters could be considered problematic and red flags will be raised," it added.

Games that allow players to make moral choices between good and evil should also not be approved, according to the memo.

"Some games have blurred moral boundaries," it said.

"Players can choose to be either good or evil... but we don't think that games should give players this choice... and this must be altered."


The memo comes as China increasingly regulates its gaming industry, with the government announcing in August that it would be limiting the amount of time minors can play online games to three hours per week.

China recently banned 'sissy' effeminate men from TV

The leaked memo marks the latest move by China to crack down on the perceived decline of traditional "masculinity".

Last month, China announced that "sissy" effeminate men would be banned being on TV, insisting broadcasters must only "vigorously promote excellent Chinese traditional culture".

The official instruction was issued to broadcasters in China as part of a "national rejuvenation" campaign by president Xi Jinping to enforce traditional "morality" by tightening government control of business and society.


The government said broadcasters must "resolutely put an end to sissy men and other abnormal aesthetics" on screen.

Really quite intrigued to see the reaction among gamers - especially those annoyed at SJWs within gaming.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on October 02, 2021, 09:09:28 PM
Quotecould be considered problematic and red flags will be raised

So which is it? Pick a lane.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on October 03, 2021, 01:52:47 AM
Quote from: The Brain on October 02, 2021, 09:09:28 PM
Quotecould be considered problematic and red flags will be raised

So which is it? Pick a lane.

:lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on October 03, 2021, 05:03:30 AM
Is the "no sissy men" rule a way to get rid of K-Pop male bands?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 03, 2021, 10:32:00 AM
Quote from: The Larch on October 03, 2021, 05:03:30 AM
Is the "no sissy men" rule a way to get rid of K-Pop male bands?

Not only, but yes they're definitely part of that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on October 03, 2021, 10:45:25 AM
When reading this thread lately I'm getting on image of some kind of a Twilight Zone episode, where a 75-year old curmudgeon wakes up in a world where not only do people start listening to his "in my days" whining, but where he also has the power to make rules for other people to follow.  At first he starts of tepidly, but quickly the power goes to his head, and he bans all the newfangled nonsense that kids do these days.  It's still early in the episode, though, so we're still waiting for the punch line.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on October 03, 2021, 10:49:18 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 02, 2021, 07:43:05 PM
I see Xi has not enjoyed the Dragon Age franchise :(
QuoteChina to ban video games featuring same-sex relationships, 'effeminate' men and moral choices
Lily Wakefield
Sat, 2 October 2021, 10:50 am·2-min read

China will ban video games featuring same-sex relationships, 'effeminate' men and moral choices, according to a leaked memo.

The internal memo from a recent internal training by the state-backed gaming association was revealed by the South China Morning Post, lays out new restrictions for approving video games in China.

According to the publication, the memo said that video games must not be viewed as "pure entertainment", and should instead convey "a correct set of values".

Games that feature queer relationships or "effeminate males", the memo states, should not be approved for release in China.

"If regulators can't tell the character's gender immediately, the setting of the characters could be considered problematic and red flags will be raised," it added.

Games that allow players to make moral choices between good and evil should also not be approved, according to the memo.

"Some games have blurred moral boundaries," it said.

"Players can choose to be either good or evil... but we don't think that games should give players this choice... and this must be altered."


The memo comes as China increasingly regulates its gaming industry, with the government announcing in August that it would be limiting the amount of time minors can play online games to three hours per week.

China recently banned 'sissy' effeminate men from TV

The leaked memo marks the latest move by China to crack down on the perceived decline of traditional "masculinity".

Last month, China announced that "sissy" effeminate men would be banned being on TV, insisting broadcasters must only "vigorously promote excellent Chinese traditional culture".

The official instruction was issued to broadcasters in China as part of a "national rejuvenation" campaign by president Xi Jinping to enforce traditional "morality" by tightening government control of business and society.


The government said broadcasters must "resolutely put an end to sissy men and other abnormal aesthetics" on screen.

Really quite intrigued to see the reaction among gamers - especially those annoyed at SJWs within gaming.


So in China I can only play as evil characters?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on October 03, 2021, 08:53:27 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 02, 2021, 07:43:05 PM
I see Xi has not enjoyed the Dragon Age franchise :(
And the Koto series with its moral choices :(

Come to think of it, he wants to ban all games except for Duke Nukem and GTA? :P

Quote
Really quite intrigued to see the reaction among gamers - especially those annoyed at SJWs within gaming.
Yeah, I wonder where they'll lean.  I guess, they'll be split on the issue.

But what I wonder is if gaming studios will go the Hollywood way and bend over to please China.  They might even released a censored version for the chinese market and the regular version for our market.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 04, 2021, 12:17:33 AM
I am just happy to see Dragon Age still considered relevant, to Sheilbh anyway, after seven years with no new games.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on October 04, 2021, 03:04:14 AM
This sudden cultural turn by Xi seems a bit odd. No need to add even more layers of oppression when what you had seemed to be working allright.

Then again, I'm far from being a China expert. But it feels like the regime is trying to overplay its hand.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 04, 2021, 03:06:55 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 04, 2021, 12:17:33 AM
I am just happy to see Dragon Age still considered relevant, to Sheilbh anyway, after seven years with no new games.
I'm just not very current :blush:

And I read that the state doesn't want same sex relationships, effeminate men or moral choice games and the last game I can think of with those elements was probably one of the Dragon Age series. I am thrilled if that's become the mainstream of modern gaming.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 04, 2021, 03:10:35 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 04, 2021, 03:04:14 AM
This sudden cultural turn by Xi seems a bit odd. No need to add even more layers of oppression when what you had seemed to be working allright.

Then again, I'm far from being a China expert. But it feels like the regime is trying to overplay its hand.
In a very weird way - it all feels a little like a Chinese "ok boomer" policy. I have no idea of the generational stereotypes in China.

But off the top of my head he's banned effeminate haircuts for men, restricted young people to one hour of gaming a day, now he's going after morally and sexually ambiguous games. Add in the stuff about not really being a fan of financial magic in the economy v the "real" economy of making things, and spends a big deal of rhetoric re-enshrining Mao and making sure he doesn't get canceled. It's not a million miles away from a national populism with Chinese characteristics :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 04, 2021, 08:22:43 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 04, 2021, 03:06:55 AM
Quote from: Valmy on October 04, 2021, 12:17:33 AM
I am just happy to see Dragon Age still considered relevant, to Sheilbh anyway, after seven years with no new games.
I'm just not very current :blush:

And I read that the state doesn't want same sex relationships, effeminate men or moral choice games and the last game I can think of with those elements was probably one of the Dragon Age series. I am thrilled if that's become the mainstream of modern gaming.

I didn't think any of the men in Dragon Age were particularly effeminate...but then I am not particularly sensitive to those kinds of issues. :P

It could just be my corrupt and decadent western ways that unless they are over the top I don't even think about it.

Hopefully sometime in the next five years we finally get the next Dragon Age game and it doesn't suck.

But back to our regularly scheduled Chinese dystopia.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 04, 2021, 10:10:32 AM
Sounds to me like Xi has been using the internet to read the Daily Mail and the Daily Express  :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 04, 2021, 10:35:29 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 04, 2021, 03:10:35 AM
In a very weird way - it all feels a little like a Chinese "ok boomer" policy. I have no idea of the generational stereotypes in China.

I'm not a China expert either, but I'm pretty sure that's exactly what it is. Certainly it is not (typically) men of Xi's generation who consume fanfic (the authors of which were the first targets in this sweep, IMO), Japanese manga & K-Pop & Chinese dramas with "girly" men and so on.

QuoteBut off the top of my head he's banned effeminate haircuts for men, restricted young people to one hour of gaming a day, now he's going after morally and sexually ambiguous games. Add in the stuff about not really being a fan of financial magic in the economy v the "real" economy of making things, and spends a big deal of rhetoric re-enshrining Mao and making sure he doesn't get canceled. It's not a million miles away from a national populism with Chinese characteristics :hmm:

That's exactly what this is, IMO. I mean, there could obviously be other factors in play but the the facts fit the thesis so far.

IMO, he's finding that the typical levers of Chinese nationalism ("Japan bad!!!!") is insufficient to distract from lacklustre economic growth, corruption, and incompetence so he's stepping it up a level or three by finding more internal targets. It's not like it's a new playbook or anything.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on October 04, 2021, 10:57:00 AM
Quote from: Jacob on October 04, 2021, 10:35:29 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 04, 2021, 03:10:35 AM
In a very weird way - it all feels a little like a Chinese "ok boomer" policy. I have no idea of the generational stereotypes in China.

I'm not a China expert either, but I'm pretty sure that's exactly what it is. Certainly it is not (typically) men of Xi's generation who consume fanfic (the authors of which were the first targets in this sweep, IMO), Japanese manga & K-Pop & Chinese dramas with "girly" men and so on.

QuoteBut off the top of my head he's banned effeminate haircuts for men, restricted young people to one hour of gaming a day, now he's going after morally and sexually ambiguous games. Add in the stuff about not really being a fan of financial magic in the economy v the "real" economy of making things, and spends a big deal of rhetoric re-enshrining Mao and making sure he doesn't get canceled. It's not a million miles away from a national populism with Chinese characteristics :hmm:

That's exactly what this is, IMO. I mean, there could obviously be other factors in play but the the facts fit the thesis so far.

IMO, he's finding that the typical levers of Chinese nationalism ("Japan bad!!!!") is insufficient to distract from lacklustre economic growth, corruption, and incompetence so he's stepping it up a level or three by finding more internal targets. It's not like it's a new playbook or anything.

I would say it is more concerning then as what will come next.

These kinds of things tend to escalate. When you are trying to distract the people with other bullshit, and you are a nationalistic, authoritarian state, that tends to not end with bitching about media. It tends to end with bangie-bangie-shooty-shooty.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 04, 2021, 11:28:12 AM
Quote from: Berkut on October 04, 2021, 10:57:00 AM
I would say it is more concerning then as what will come next.

These kinds of things tend to escalate. When you are trying to distract the people with other bullshit, and you are a nationalistic, authoritarian state, that tends to not end with bitching about media. It tends to end with bangie-bangie-shooty-shooty.

I don't think war is inevitable, but it's definitely part of the possible trajectory. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the need for Zhongnanhai to look strong to it's own population results in "robust action", leading to loss of lives. I mean, it's already happened on the border with India. It's certainly not far fetched that it'll happen elsewhere, and neither is it far fetched that it could escalate faster and more unfortunately than desired.

On one hand, China continues to up-arm so, them, the later any real conflict happens the better. Similarly, I believe Zhongnanhai analysts consider the West to be in decline (though if there are more steps like AUKUS, they may be less confident about that).

On the other hand, the internal logic of the regime as they continue along the "internal enemies to distract from internal flaws" may push the need for greater confrontation forward.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 04, 2021, 11:48:04 AM
"Donald Trump with Chinese characteristics."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 04, 2021, 11:48:46 AM
Quote from: grumbler on October 04, 2021, 11:48:04 AM
"Donald Trump with Chinese characteristics."

:lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on October 04, 2021, 12:28:52 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 03, 2021, 10:32:00 AM
Quote from: The Larch on October 03, 2021, 05:03:30 AM
Is the "no sissy men" rule a way to get rid of K-Pop male bands?

Not only, but yes they're definitely part of that.

Well, if a short while ago they also went against "fan culture" it'd seem to me that this is, in part, a concerted attack on popular youth culture (gaming, celebrities, soap operas, K pop...)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 04, 2021, 12:34:59 PM
Quote from: The Larch on October 04, 2021, 12:28:52 PM
Well, if a short while ago they also went against "fan culture" it'd seem to me that this is, in part, a concerted attack on popular youth culture (gaming, celebrities, soap operas, K pop...)

Absolutely. I think it's about getting rid of popular groupings that may shape opinion outside of party control. Venture capitalists and tech-bros as much as celebrity culture. When groups of people starts saying "[this person] we really really admire said [this], it's so profound" Xi's CCP gets concerned if they're outside party control - whether [this person] is a swoony male idol, Jack Ma, a spokesperson for LGTBQ+ perspective, or someone else.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 04, 2021, 09:00:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 02, 2021, 09:07:35 AM
Looks like there's some internal power-struggles going on - and obviously at the same time I think something like 30 Chinese planes entered Taiwanese airspace which Taiwan says was the largest incursion they've ever seen:
Apparently over 50 Chinese planes entering Taiwanese airspace today :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on October 04, 2021, 09:25:56 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 04, 2021, 09:00:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 02, 2021, 09:07:35 AM
Looks like there's some internal power-struggles going on - and obviously at the same time I think something like 30 Chinese planes entered Taiwanese airspace which Taiwan says was the largest incursion they've ever seen:

Apparently over 50 Chinese planes entering Taiwanese airspace today :ph34r:

Shelf it's not Taiwanese airspace, all the 'incursions' have taken place within international airspace, but within their self-declared defence zone; areas many countries define as being zones where they will monitor military traffic and response with non-violent defence measures.

Though that's not to say the Chinese sabre-rattling isn't concerning.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 04, 2021, 09:27:06 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 03, 2021, 08:53:27 PM
[


But what I wonder is if gaming studios will go the Hollywood way and bend over to please China.  They might even released a censored version for the chinese market and the regular version for our market.

Would be nice to see them go down the south park stick of truth path. Thats how censorship should be done.

Though, is China really such a significant market for games?
I had understood piracy was absolutely rampant there so it's only really stuff that relies on micro transactions et al which makes money there - Chinese players are big on buying expensive skins and the like to show off how rich they are.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 04, 2021, 09:35:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 04, 2021, 11:28:12 AM
. Similarly, I believe Zhongnanhai analysts consider the West to be in decline

The West has been in decline for at least 99 years; wouldn't take much comfort in that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 06, 2021, 12:00:42 PM
Update on the power map:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FA-9zJ0UcAQUrat?format=jpg&name=small)

This is definitely going to feed into global supplies of - I imagine - everything at some point.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 09, 2021, 05:47:03 PM
First confirmed case of a US company contracting with the Xinjiang government to transport Uyghur workers on their plant in another part of China - basically contracting to transport forced labour:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/exclusive-us-electronics-firm-struck-deal-transport-hire-uyghur-workers-2021-10-07/

It makes remote controls and supplies Sony, Samsung, Microsoft, LG and others.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 11, 2021, 07:53:03 AM
Well what can you do? They are bound by their fiduciary obligations to generate value for their shareholders.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 15, 2021, 05:23:57 PM
Interesting read in Foreign Policy.

The primary argument (packaged with a bunch of historical analogies potentially of interest to languishites): China is a power that was rising, but is peaking. There is an increased risk of great power conflict between China and the US not because China is on a path to supercede the US (unless the US fucks itself over), but because China is in its strongest position vis-a-vis the US right now and may be tempted to "lock in" any potential gains before the window to strike closes more firmly.

QuoteThe idea of a Thucydides Trap, popularized by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, holds that the danger of war will skyrocket as a surging China overtakes a sagging America. Even Chinese President Xi Jinping has endorsed the concept arguing Washington must make room for Beijing. As tensions between the United States and China escalate, the belief that the fundamental cause of friction is a looming "power transition"—the replacement of one hegemon by another—has become canonical.

The only problem with this familiar formula is that it's wrong.

The Thucydides Trap doesn't really explain what caused the Peloponnesian War. It doesn't capture the dynamics that have often driven revisionist powers—whether that is Germany in 1914 or Japan in 1941—to start some of history's most devastating conflicts. And it doesn't explain why war is a very real possibility in U.S.-China relations today because it fundamentally misdiagnoses where China now finds itself on its arc of development—the point at which its relative power is peaking and will soon start to fade.

There's indeed a deadly trap that could ensnare the United States and China. But it's not the product of a power transition the Thucydidean cliché says it is. It's best thought of instead as a "peaking power trap." And if history is any guide, it's China's—not the United States'—impending decline that could cause it to snap shut.


QuoteThis is the real trap the United States should worry about regarding China today—the trap in which an aspiring superpower peaks and then refuses to bear the painful consequences of descent.

China's rise is no mirage: Decades of growth have given Beijing the economic sinews of global power. Major investments in key technologies and communications infrastructure have yielded a strong position in the struggle for geoeconomic influence; China is using a multi-continent Belt and Road Initiative to bring other states into its orbit. Most alarming, think tank assessments and U.S. Defense Department reports show China's increasingly formidable military now stands a real chance of winning a war against the United States in the Western Pacific.

It is unsurprising, therefore, that China has also developed the ambitions of a superpower: Xi has more or less announced that Beijing desires to assert its sovereignty over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and other disputed areas, becoming Asia's preeminent power and challenging the United States for global leadership. Yet if China's geopolitical window of opportunity is real, its future is already starting to look quite grim because it is quickly losing the advantages that propelled its rapid growth.

From the 1970s to the 2000s, China was nearly self-sufficient in food, water, and energy resources. It enjoyed the greatest demographic dividend in history, with 10 working-age adults for every senior citizen aged 65 or older. (For most major economies, the average is closer to 5 working-age adults for every senior citizen.) China had a secure geopolitical environment and easy access to foreign markets and technology, all underpinned by friendly relations with the United States. And China's government skillfully harnessed these advantages by carrying out a process of economic reform and opening while also moving the regime from stifling totalitarianism under former Chinese leader Mao Zedong to a smarter—if still deeply repressive—form of authoritarianism under his successors. China had it all from the 1970s to the early 2010s—just the mix of endowments, environment, people, and policies needed to thrive.

Since the late 2000s, however, the drivers of China's rise have either stalled or turned around entirely. For example, China is running out of resources: Water has become scarce, and the country is importing more energy and food than any other nation, having ravaged its own natural resources. Economic growth is therefore becoming costlier: According to data from DBS Bank, it takes three times as many inputs to produce a unit of growth today as it did in the early 2000s.

China is also approaching a demographic precipice: From 2020 to 2050, it will lose an astounding 200 million working-age adults—a population the size of Nigeria—and gain 200 million senior citizens. The fiscal and economic consequences will be devastating: Current projections suggest China's medical and social security spending will have to triple as a share of GDP, from 10 percent to 30 percent, by 2050 just to prevent millions of seniors from dying of impoverishment and neglect.

China is also approaching a demographic precipice: From 2020 to 2050, it will lose an astounding 200 million working-age adults—a population the size of Nigeria—and gain 200 million senior citizens.

To make matters worse, China is turning away from the package of policies that promoted rapid growth. Under Xi, Beijing has slid back toward totalitarianism. Xi has appointed himself "chairman of everything," destroyed any semblance of collective rule, and made adherence to "Xi Jinping thought" the ideological core of an increasingly rigid regime. And he has relentlessly pursued the centralization of power at the expense of economic prosperity.

State zombie firms are being propped up while private firms are starved of capital. Objective economic analysis is being replaced by government propaganda. Innovation is becoming more difficult in a climate of stultifying ideological conformity. Meanwhile, Xi's brutal anti-corruption campaign has deterred entrepreneurship, and a wave of politically driven regulations has erased more than $1 trillion from the market capitalization of China's leading tech firms. Xi hasn't simply stopped the process of economic liberalization that powered China's development: He has thrown it hard into reverse.

The economic damage these trends are causing is starting to accumulate—and it is compounding the slowdown that would have occurred anyway as a fast-growing economy matures. The Chinese economy has been losing steam for more than a decade: The country's official growth rate declined from 14 percent in 2007 to 6 percent in 2019, and rigorous studies suggest the true growth rate is now closer to 2 percent. Worse, most of that growth stems from government stimulus spending. According to data from the Conference Board, total factor productivity declined 1.3 percent every year on average between 2008 and 2019, meaning China is spending more to produce less each year. This has led, in turn, to massive debt: China's total debt surged eight-fold between 2008 and 2019 and exceeded 300 percent of GDP prior to COVID-19. Any country that has accumulated debt or lost productivity at anything close to China's current pace has subsequently suffered at least one "lost decade" of near-zero economic growth.

All of this is happening, moreover, as China confronts an increasingly hostile external environment. The combination of COVID-19, persistent human rights abuses, and aggressive policies have caused negative views of China to reach levels not seen since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. Countries worried about Chinese competition have slapped thousands of new trade barriers on its goods since 2008. More than a dozen countries have dropped out of Xi's Belt and Road Initiative while the United States wages a global campaign against key Chinese tech companies—notably, Huawei—and rich democracies across multiple continents throw up barriers to Beijing's digital influence. The world is becoming less conducive to easy Chinese growth, and Xi's regime increasingly faces the sort of strategic encirclement that once drove German and Japanese leaders to desperation.

Case in point is U.S. policy. Over the past five years, two U.S. presidential administrations have committed the United States to a policy of "competition"—really, neo-containment—vis-à-vis China. U.S. defense strategy is now focused squarely on defeating Chinese aggression in the Western Pacific; Washington is using an array of trade and technological sanctions to check Beijing's influence and limit its prospects for economic primacy. "Once imperial America considers you as their 'enemy,' you're in big trouble," one senior People's Liberation Army officer warned. Indeed, the United States has also committed to orchestrating greater global resistance to Chinese power, a campaign that is starting to show results as more and more countries respond to the threat from Beijing.

In maritime Asia, resistance to Chinese power is stiffening. Taiwan is boosting military spending and laying plans to turn itself into a strategic porcupine in the Western Pacific. Japan is carrying out its biggest military buildup since the end of the Cold War and has agreed to back the United States if China attacks Taiwan. The countries around the South China Sea, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, are beefing up their air, naval, and coast guard forces to contest China's expansive claims.

Other countries are pushing back against Beijing's assertiveness as well. Australia is expanding northern bases to accommodate U.S. ships and aircraft and building long-range conventional missiles and nuclear-powered attack submarines. India is massing forces on its border with China while sending warships through the South China Sea. The European Union has labeled Beijing a "systemic rival," and Europe's three greatest powers—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—have dispatched naval task forces to the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. A variety of multilateral anti-China initiatives—the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue; supply chain alliances; the new so-called AUKUS alliance with Washington, London, and Canberra; and others—are in the works. The United States' "multilateral club strategy," hawkish and well-connected scholar Yan Xuetong acknowledged in July, is "isolating China" and hurting its development.

No doubt, counter-China cooperation has remained imperfect. But the overall trend is clear: An array of actors is gradually joining forces to check Beijing's power and put it in a strategic box. China, in other words, is not a forever-ascendant country. It is an already-strong, enormously ambitious, and deeply troubled power whose window of opportunity won't stay open for long.

...


https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-united-states/

Separate from the main argument, there's this bit as well: "Most alarming, think tank assessments and U.S. Defense Department reports show China's increasingly formidable military now stands a real chance of winning a war against the United States in the Western Pacific."

How real is that?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 15, 2021, 06:07:15 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 15, 2021, 05:23:57 PM
Separate from the main argument, there's this bit as well: "Most alarming, think tank assessments and U.S. Defense Department reports show China's increasingly formidable military now stands a real chance of winning a war against the United States in the Western Pacific."

How real is that?

I think that China's new hardware is impressive in both capabilities and numbers, but I question whether they have had it long enough to work out the doctrine, training, and maintenance to make it fully effective.  The real question is whether or not the Chinese leadership thinks that they are powerful enough to win against the US-led alliance.  The USSR vastly over-estimated the effectiveness of their military when they allied with Hitler and found out how wrong they were the hard way.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 15, 2021, 06:16:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 15, 2021, 05:23:57 PM
The primary argument (packaged with a bunch of historical analogies potentially of interest to languishites): China is a power that was rising, but is peaking.

Maybe.

The 2 big arguments here are debt and demographics.

People have been doom-saying about China's debt levels for decades now.  If there is an argument about unsustainability I don't see it clearly articulated here. And the US is hardly debt free

"The country's official growth rate declined from 14 percent in 2007 to 6 percent in 2019"  - that's statistical cherry-picking - 2007 was a peak blip.  Looking at per capita growth, it goes from the 7-10 percent range in the late 90s and early oughts to the 6-7 percent range last decade. That's a pretty graceful decline and what one would expect.  And it's still much faster than the leading OECD countries.

"Rigorous studies suggest the true growth rate is now closer to 2 percent." - I guess they are so rigorous that actual citation is superfluous?  This is another China trope that goes back decades - that the growth numbers are way lower than reported.  The transformation of China's cities suggests otherwise.

"China is also approaching a demographic precipice: From 2020 to 2050, it will lose an astounding 200 million working-age adults—a population the size of Nigeria—and gain 200 million senior citizens."  - That is admittedly a significant issue, but one that will play out over decades not years.  And even after losing 200 million working age people, China will still have far more than any country other than India.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 15, 2021, 06:24:33 PM
Quote from: grumbler on October 15, 2021, 06:07:15 PM
I think that China's new hardware is impressive in both capabilities and numbers, but I question whether they have had it long enough to work out the doctrine, training, and maintenance to make it fully effective.  The real question is whether or not the Chinese leadership thinks that they are powerful enough to win against the US-led alliance.  The USSR vastly over-estimated the effectiveness of their military when they allied with Hitler and found out how wrong they were the hard way.

It's also been a very long time since there has been a great power maritime confrontation; there has to be a some uncertainty about exactly how it plays out and how new techs and capabilities like anti-ship missiles will really work.  National militaries game out scenarios and test capabilities through exercises but history suggests real shooting wars don't always play out quite as expected.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 15, 2021, 06:29:10 PM
Good point Joan.  The same applies to any future air war.

Or even ground war.  I don't think many people saw Armenia-Azerbaijan playing out exactly as it did.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 15, 2021, 06:38:21 PM
You can say a lot of things about Xi but I don't think he's a wild gambler.  I don't think he would willfully roll the dice on a war in the Pacific with the US.  But I do see him using escalation to probe and test US resolve and it isn't always possible to control that process.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 15, 2021, 07:14:46 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 15, 2021, 06:24:33 PM
Quote from: grumbler on October 15, 2021, 06:07:15 PM
I think that China's new hardware is impressive in both capabilities and numbers, but I question whether they have had it long enough to work out the doctrine, training, and maintenance to make it fully effective.  The real question is whether or not the Chinese leadership thinks that they are powerful enough to win against the US-led alliance.  The USSR vastly over-estimated the effectiveness of their military when they allied with Hitler and found out how wrong they were the hard way.

It's also been a very long time since there has been a great power maritime confrontation; there has to be a some uncertainty about exactly how it plays out and how new techs and capabilities like anti-ship missiles will really work.  National militaries game out scenarios and test capabilities through exercises but history suggests real shooting wars don't always play out quite as expected.

Anti-ship missiles are not a new tech.  The US and its allies have both used them and been attacked by them, and so know far more about how such attacks work than the Chinese.

But that wasn't my point.  My point was not about the scenarios testing strategy, it was about the fact that the Chinese military has not had these new capabilities for long enough to know how to best use them, train others to use them, and properly maintain them.  They are in the position of, say, the Great Power militaries fighting WW1, but against an enemy that has been using WW1 tech for a decade.  Beattie's battlecruisers blew up at Jutland because the RN hadn't had enough experience in operating them to recognize the danger of the operating procedures they were using.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 15, 2021, 10:21:03 PM
ASBMs not cruise missiles
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 15, 2021, 10:53:26 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 15, 2021, 10:21:03 PM
ASBMs not cruise missiles

Those won't become real threats in the immediate future.  They are another example of a technology that hasn't matured to the point that they have a robust targeting system and a doctrine that would allow them to be effectively used.  Though there is a danger that the PRC will begin to believe its own propaganda and think that they've solved the problem of how to defeat a CVBG.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 15, 2021, 11:11:46 PM
Thanks for the perspectives grumbler and Minsky. Good food for thought.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on October 16, 2021, 01:59:31 PM
Quote from: grumbler on October 15, 2021, 07:14:46 PM
Beattie's battlecruisers blew up at Jutland because the RN hadn't had enough experience in operating them to recognize the danger of the operating procedures they were using.

Total aside to the thread subject, but I forgot to ask your views on this in the thread dedicated to it....

I wonder if the "story" of the BCs is as much driven by how the German BCs did not blown up, as the Brits did.

They got absolutely pummeled as well, but they didn't just blow up and sink.

I've read that was the result of

A) Luck. One of the German BCs was on the verge of a catastrophic explosion and some quick action at the very last moment saved it. No quick action, or the guy doing it was a bit more injured, and its likely at least on the German BCs would have had a catastrophic result as well.
B) The Germans had smaller guns, but much better armor and overall survivability. The Brits counted on heavier guns and better gunnery to take out the enemy BCs before they were badly damaged. Turns out, in this case, better armor won out over bigger/better guns
C) In regards to B, it would seem that the British ammunition was actually flawed? The fuses did not work right, and their heavier guns shells simply exploded on initial contact, causing a lot of external but superficial (to the integrity of the ship anyway) damage. So maybe this is actually kind of part of B - maybe B would have worked had the guns actually performed as expected?
D) The engagement itself. Beatty had a job to do, to pull in the HSF into range of the GF, and he did it, but that meant subjecting his ships to fire far longer then they were designed.

Any thoughts on those? Some of them, all of them, some more then others?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on October 16, 2021, 02:02:41 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 15, 2021, 11:11:46 PM
Thanks for the perspectives grumbler and Minsky. Good food for thought.

I think we've touched on this before.

The concern here is at least as much about the fear of war as the actual outcome of that war.

I am not worried about a shooting war with China so much because I am afraid we might lose, as I think the consequences of the war itself are going to be horrific, even if the "good guys" win.

So I don't find analysis of the actual capabilities, even when that analysis comes down on the side of the good guys, all that encouraging.

The number of examples of wars started by an objectively weaker, and in hindsight actually doomed, power is not trivial, and in fact both of the really bad wars were "started" by the sides that were objectively weaker.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 16, 2021, 02:28:09 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 16, 2021, 02:02:41 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 15, 2021, 11:11:46 PM
Thanks for the perspectives grumbler and Minsky. Good food for thought.

I think we've touched on this before.

The concern here is at least as much about the fear of war as the actual outcome of that war.

I am not worried about a shooting war with China so much because I am afraid we might lose, as I think the consequences of the war itself are going to be horrific, even if the "good guys" win.

Yup.

If it was a strategy game, I'd be tempted to flip the switch to resolve the tension; probably at what my analysis suggested is the optimal point in terms of relative strength. But in reality there are lives and welfare of hundreds of millions of people on the line so I'm very much against pulling any triggers.

QuoteSo I don't find analysis of the actual capabilities, even when that analysis comes down on the side of the good guys, all that encouraging.

The number of examples of wars started by an objectively weaker, and in hindsight actually doomed, power is not trivial, and in fact both of the really bad wars were "started" by the sides that were objectively weaker.

Yeah which brings it back to the arguments in the article I shared. It says that China was on a trajectory of increasing power and lessening the gap to the US, but now that trajectory looks is slowing down and may potentially reverse. The article postulates that that moment is a much greater risk as China may be inclined to strike "before it's too late" so to speak.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on October 16, 2021, 03:19:09 PM
I think the big danger is that internal economics and politics will eventually get so bad that Xi will consider escalation of tensions (which then he may not be able to control) or even war to he his only way to save his power. That lone of thinking had already caused at least one world wars.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 16, 2021, 05:11:58 PM
Quote from: Berkut on October 16, 2021, 01:59:31 PM
Total aside to the thread subject, but I forgot to ask your views on this in the thread dedicated to it....

I wonder if the "story" of the BCs is as much driven by how the German BCs did not blown up, as the Brits did.

That, and the myth that the RN battlecruiser blew up because of their thin belt armor.  That was Beatty's position, and he had the authority to push his own agenda, thereby disguising the fact that his own orders doomed at least two of the three BCs lost.

QuoteThey got absolutely pummeled as well, but they didn't just blow up and sink.

I've read that was the result of

A) Luck. One of the German BCs was on the verge of a catastrophic explosion and some quick action at the very last moment saved it. No quick action, or the guy doing it was a bit more injured, and its likely at least on the German BCs would have had a catastrophic result as well.
B) The Germans had smaller guns, but much better armor and overall survivability. The Brits counted on heavier guns and better gunnery to take out the enemy BCs before they were badly damaged. Turns out, in this case, better armor won out over bigger/better guns
C) In regards to B, it would seem that the British ammunition was actually flawed? The fuses did not work right, and their heavier guns shells simply exploded on initial contact, causing a lot of external but superficial (to the integrity of the ship anyway) damage. So maybe this is actually kind of part of B - maybe B would have worked had the guns actually performed as expected?
D) The engagement itself. Beatty had a job to do, to pull in the HSF into range of the GF, and he did it, but that meant subjecting his ships to fire far longer then they were designed.

Any thoughts on those? Some of them, all of them, some more then others?

A) The German BC that almost had a "magazine explosion" was the Seydlitz at the battle of Dogger Bank.  Instead, it had a propellant fire that took out both after turrets when the magazines were flooded.  The Germans realized that the flaw had been excessive accumulation of ready powder charges, and changed procedures after the battle to reduce the flow of charges to the rate at which they were used.  The British did the opposite, as Beatty had concluded that only increasing his ships rate of fire would allow them to defeat the German First Scouting Group before the Germans could get away.  Their slowest ships were several knots faster than his slowest ships, and if he left his slowest ships behind they would outnumber him.  This would come back to haunt the British at Jutland, as three ships (and almost a another, with Beatty aboard) were lost to turret hits that travelled down the excess powder accumulation and into the magazines.

B) The German battlecruiser designs were derived from their battleship designs, not armored cruiser designs like the British ones.  They thus had a lot more compartmentalization, which increased survivability at the cost of habitability and a bit of range.  In addition, they had effective shells and their powder came in cases, not bags.  The latter took much more effort to burn, and, with magazine venting (again, the British didn't have) meant that their magazines were much less a danger to the ship.  They'd have fires, not explosions.  Plus, of course, much better armor (though it wasn't lack of armor that doomed the British battlecruisers).

C)  Yes, in a situation weirdly like the US WW2 torpedo fiasco, the British discovered too late that their Cordite B shell charges were actually detonating on contact with German armor (due to the compression of the shell as it hit the armor) rather than detonating when the fuse went off.  By 1918, they had replaced their entire stock of shells with the Greenboy shell, which used the much less volatile Cordite D.  The Germans would likely have been far worse hurt had the British shells performed as advertised.  British gunnery was as good as German, and they had a lot more guns.

D)  Yes, sort of.  Remember that Invincible was not with Beatty, but with Jellicoe, and it also suffered the turret-hit-travels-to-magazine catastrophe.  Beatty lost the two ships he lost quite early in the action (Indefatigable fourteen minutes in and Queen Mary 42 minutes in).  The whole action until the Grand Fleet arrived last about two-and-one-half hours.  You could certainly argue that the early British battlecruisers were not designed to be used the way Beatty had to use them (they were, after all, designed to fight nothing larger than a cruiser and were initially called "Dreadnought Armored Cruisers").  That they were misused was largely a factor of the decision to call them (as well as the better-armored "Cats") "battlecruisers," which allowed the RN to completely fool itself as to the adequacy of its battlecruiser numbers.  Beatty took three battlecruisers and six dreadnought armored cruisers to hunt the five German battlecruisers, for the most part, and was probably lucky that he never found them.  At Jutland he was fortunate to have three battlecruisers three dreadnought armored cruisers, and four fast battleships.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Agelastus on October 16, 2021, 07:12:50 PM
Four battlecruisers, 2 dreadnought armoured cruisers,  and 4 fast battleships.

Lion, Princess Royal,  Queen Mary, Tiger.

Indefatigable, New Zealand.

Warspite, Valiant, Barham, Malaya.

I also thought that the prevailing theory was that while Indefatigable and Invincible succumbed to turret hits and inadequate flash protection, Queen Mary was unlucky enough to take a direct hit to a magazine.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 16, 2021, 07:54:17 PM
Quote from: Agelastus on October 16, 2021, 07:12:50 PM
Four battlecruisers, 2 dreadnought armoured cruisers,  and 4 fast battleships.

Lion, Princess Royal,  Queen Mary, Tiger.

Indefatigable, New Zealand.

Warspite, Valiant, Barham, Malaya.

Correct.

QuoteI also thought that the prevailing theory was that while Indefatigable and Invincible succumbed to turret hits and inadequate flash protection, Queen Mary was unlucky enough to take a direct hit to a magazine.

We don't know because the blast destroyed any evidence, but the Derflinger's shell shouldn't have been able to penetrate the belt at that target angle and in any case shouldn't have had enough of an angle to reach the magazine.  Range was about 13,000m.  Warfare is random, though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on October 16, 2021, 11:10:08 PM
DOOM

https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb

Quote
   China tests new space capability with hypersonic missile
Launch in August of nuclear-capable rocket that circled the globe took US intelligence by surprise

China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August that circled the globe before speeding towards its target, demonstrating an advanced space capability that caught US intelligence by surprise.

Five people familiar with the test said the Chinese military launched a rocket that carried a hypersonic glide vehicle which flew through low-orbit space before cruising down towards its target.

The missile missed its target by about two-dozen miles, according to three people briefed on the intelligence. But two said the test showed that China had made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and was far more advanced than US officials realised.

The test has raised new questions about why the US often underestimated China's military modernisation.

"We have no idea how they did this," said a fourth person.

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The US, Russia and China are all developing hypersonic weapons, including glide vehicles that are launched into space on a rocket but orbit the earth under their own momentum. They fly at five times the speed of sound, slower than a ballistic missile. But they do not follow the fixed parabolic trajectory of a ballistic missile and are manoeuvrable, making them harder to track.

Taylor Fravel, an expert on Chinese nuclear weapons policy who was unaware of the test, said a hypersonic glide vehicle armed with a nuclear warhead could help China "negate" US missile defence systems which are designed to destroy incoming ballistic missiles.

"Hypersonic glide vehicles . . . fly at lower trajectories and can manoeuvre in flight, which makes them hard to track and destroy," said Fravel, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Fravel added that it would be "destabilising" if China fully developed and deployed such a weapon, but he cautioned that a test did not necessarily mean that Beijing would deploy the capability.

Mounting concern about China's nuclear capabilities comes as Beijing continues to build up its conventional military forces and engages in increasingly assertive military activity near Taiwan.

Tensions between the US and China have risen as the Biden administration has taken a tough tack on Beijing, which has accused Washington of being overly hostile.

US military officials in recent months have warned about China's growing nuclear capabilities, particularly after the release of satellite imagery that showed it was building more than 200 intercontinental missile silos. China is not bound by any arms-control deals and has been unwilling to engage the US in talks about its nuclear arsenal and policy.

Last month, Frank Kendall, US air force secretary, hinted that Beijing was developing a new weapon. He said China had made huge advances, including the "potential for global strikes . . . from space". He declined to provide details, but suggested that China was developing something akin to the "Fractional Orbital Bombardment System" that the USSR deployed for part of the Cold War, before abandoning it.

"If you use that kind of an approach, you don't have to use a traditional ICBM trajectory. It's a way to avoid defences and missile warning systems," said Kendall.

In August, General Glen VanHerck, head of North American Aerospace Defense Command, told a conference that China had "recently demonstrated very advanced hypersonic glide vehicle capabilities". He warned that the Chinese capability would "provide significant challenges to my Norad capability to provide threat warning and attack assessment".

Two of the people familiar with the Chinese test said the weapon could, in theory, fly over the South Pole. That would pose a big challenge for the US military because its missiles defence systems are focused on the northern polar route.

The revelation comes as the Biden administration undertakes the Nuclear Posture Review, an analysis of policy and capabilities mandated by Congress that has pitted arms-control advocates against those who believe the US must do more to modernise its nuclear arsenal because of China.

The Pentagon did not comment on the report but expressed concern about China. "We have made clear our concerns about the military capabilities China continues to pursue, capabilities that only increase tensions in the region and beyond," said John Kirby, spokesperson. "That is one reason why we hold China as our number one pacing challenge."

The Chinese embassy declined to comment on the test, but Liu Pengyu, spokesperson, said China always pursued a military policy that was "defensive in nature" and its military development did not target any country.

"We don't have a global strategy and plans of military operations like the US does. And we are not at all interested in having an arms race with other countries," Liu said. "In contrast, the US has in recent years been fabricating excuses like 'the China threat' to justify its arms expansion and development of hypersonic weapons. This has directly intensified arms race in this category and severely undermined global strategic stability."

One Asian national security official said the Chinese military conducted the test in August. China generally announces the launch of Long March rockets — the type used to launch the hypersonic glide vehicle into orbit — but it conspicuously concealed the August launch.

The security official, and another Chinese security expert close to the People's Liberation Army, said the weapon was being developed by the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics. CAAA is a research institute under China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the main state-owned firm that makes missile systems and rockets for China's space programme. Both sources said the hypersonic glide vehicle was launched on a Long March rocket, which is used for the space programme.

The China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, which oversees launches, on July 19 said on an official social media account that it had launched a Long March 2C rocket, which it added was the 77th launch of that rocket. On August 24, it announced that it had conducted a 79th flight. But there was no announcement of a 78th launch, which sparked speculation among observers of its space programme about a secret launch. CAAA did not respond to requests for comment.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 20, 2021, 05:51:06 AM
Not sure where to put this (we maybe need an energy politics/consequences thread because this stuff isn't clearly national) - but London Metal Exchange which is the world's largest market for forwards and futures and hedging etc on metals has just put emergency measures on copper trading largely around liquidity fears in the market. The context is the global (China) energy issues plus supply chain, extraction issues and increased demand which is causing companies to pull copper from supply because they think it'll be worth more in the future here's cash-to-3 month spread which is now over $1,000 (the previous highest level was $330) - this is going to cause costs around the world on all sorts of products that include copper:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCCvoBOXEAQ7Af6?format=png&name=small)

I believe there's similar issues with other metals too - especially with the ongoing surge in demand, global supply chain issues (ships waiting at LA Port, cost of containers shooting up) plus China's energy rationing on industry. Over half the world's copper ends up in China to manufacture products for the rest of the world (plus internal construction), I believe it's quite important in manufacturing solar panels and wind farms which will have a knock-on effect on other bits of energy politics.

So this and the other price rises in other metals, plus energy rationing in certain industries/provinces - all feels like it could start adding up into a pretty strong supply shock - or am I worrying too much :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 20, 2021, 09:36:28 AM
Big squeeze now in manganese, where China controls 75%+ of output, but production is way down due to the central government's power rationing.  Combined with the shipping disruptions it's a perfect storm.

I am all for taking urgent measures to address carbon emissions but these kinds of the Stalinist style central planning directives are creating significant distortions and disruptions in the world economy.  It is raising questions about China's reliability as a supplier.  China is a dominant exporter of primary materials not because it controls all reserves but because it is a cheap and efficient producer.  These metals and materials could be mined elsewhere and probably in a more environmental sound way, albeit subject to NIMBY objections.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on October 20, 2021, 09:54:17 AM
I think what we're seeing here is an argument for some strategic intervention in the markets.  Sure, the short-sighted economics may lead you to get all your shit produced in China.  However, the strategic vulnerability of a country having all its shit produced in China is a cost that is not captured.  Free markets are much better at leading to optimal microeconomic results than they are at leading to optimal macroeconomic results.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 20, 2021, 10:05:45 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 20, 2021, 09:54:17 AM
I think what we're seeing here is an argument for some strategic intervention in the markets.  Sure, the short-sighted economics may lead you to get all your shit produced in China.  However, the strategic vulnerability of a country having all its shit produced in China is a cost that is not captured.  Free markets are much better at leading to optimal microeconomic results than they are at leading to optimal macroeconomic results.
I think we saw that with PPE production during the very early days of covid. I agree there needs to be more strategic and possibly "national security" approach to supply chains and production.

Not just raw materials or PPE but also things such as batteries. Similarly with Taiwan and semiconductor production being a possible problem for China and the world.

I think we are moving to an era of political and military competition. We shouldn't be looking to "de-couple" from China because that's not a good idea and very difficult but I think we should ensure that our economies are organised in a way that can deal with that competition. So not a general de-coupling but intervening in markets to ensure we are not dependent on China in any core sectors.

I also think that there's a current mismatch of supply and demand in energy. In the past that is something that can cause recessions or end periods of growth, I think it is going to be a part of the near-term energy transition. I think strategic intervention is also necessary in that case because we don't want core sectors of our economies to be affected by China's energy transition as well as our own, in particular because the Chinese state may decide that the key strategic they need to keep going regardless of energy issues are different than what we rely on/need.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 20, 2021, 02:11:48 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 20, 2021, 09:54:17 AM
I think what we're seeing here is an argument for some strategic intervention in the markets.  Sure, the short-sighted economics may lead you to get all your shit produced in China.  However, the strategic vulnerability of a country having all its shit produced in China is a cost that is not captured.  Free markets are much better at leading to optimal microeconomic results than they are at leading to optimal macroeconomic results.

That's certainly the logic that prevailed in the Cold War period.  The Soviet Union was blessed with many natural resources that capitalist countries needed and used but it was understood that that the "free" countries had to develop and maintain alternative sources of supply, even if it meant subsidizing less economically efficient production.

With Dengist China, that logic did not prevail on the understanding that the PRC was operating a dualist system of a nominally Communist Party controlling a monopoly of political power while allowing economic forces to develop competitively and relatively openly.  The PRC might not be one of us but it was always open for business.  But under the developing political conditions of High Xiism, those assumptions no longer hold. 

The complicating factor is that it is no longer merely an issue of production and distribution of Commodity X - i.e. does the "West" control sufficient deposits of uranium, rare earths, etc.  It is partially unwinding or developing parallel redundancies in highly complex systems of component production, assembly, shipping and logistics centered on China as a critical hub in the system.  That creates challenges for industrial policy that didn't exist in the same way during its last heyday in the 60s and 70s.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on November 18, 2021, 09:16:54 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59325399

QuotePeng Shuai: Doubt cast on email from Chinese tennis star

The head of the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) has cast doubt on an email released by Chinese state media attributed to tennis player Peng Shuai.

The tennis star has not been heard from since she made sexual assault allegations against a top Chinese government official two weeks ago.

In the email, Ms Peng purportedly says the allegations are "not true".


Steve Simon, chairman of the WTA, said the message "only raises" his concerns about Ms Peng's safety.

"I have a hard time believing that Peng Shuai actually wrote the email we received or believes what is being attributed to her," he said in a statement.

Written in her voice and published by the broadcaster CGTN, the email claims she is not missing or unsafe, adding: "I've just been resting at home and everything is fine."

Many responding on social media have cast doubt on its authenticity.

Ms Peng - a former number one-ranked tennis doubles player - had not been heard from since posting an allegation about former Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli on Chinese social media site Weibo in early November.

She alleged she was "forced" into sexual relations with Mr Zhang - who served as the country's Vice Premier between 2013 and 2018 and was a close ally of China's leader Xi Jinping - in a post that was later taken down. She has not been seen or heard from publicly since.

The WTA and leading voices from the world of tennis have increasingly spoken out about Ms Peng since.

On Thursday, the spokesman for China's foreign ministry did not give further details about the situation when asked by reporters.

"This is not a foreign affairs matter," Zhao Lijian said. "And I am not aware of the relevant situation you mentioned."

Earlier this week, world number one male tennis player Novak Djokovic said he hoped Ms Peng was OK, adding that he was shocked, while Naomi Osaka also voiced concerns about her whereabouts.

"The WTA and the rest of the world need independent and verifiable proof that she is safe," WTA chair Steve Simon said on Wednesday.

He also reiterated that her sexual assault allegation must be investigated "with full transparency and without censorship".

"The voices of women need to be heard and respected, not censored nor dictated to," he added.

Ms Peng, 35, is a prominent figure in Chinese tennis. She has won two Grand Slams at Wimbledon in 2013 and the 2014 French Open, both alongside Taiwan's Hsieh Su-wei.

Her allegation is the highest profile incident in China's fledgling #MeToo movement.

Ms Peng has more than half a million followers on Weibo, the Chinese equivalent of Twitter.

Her post containing the sexual assault allegations was taken down only minutes after it was posted on 2 November, and other recent posts from her account have also been removed.

For Weibo users now searching for Ms Peng's name online, it is still possible to find her account but it is no longer possible to write comments beneath her remaining posts
.



Analysis by Robin Bryant, Shanghai Correspondent:

Ms Peng hasn't been seen in public nor heard from in weeks. Now an email appears and the language appears flippant.

The image released by the state controlled TV network CGTN appears to be a screenshot, with a cursor hovering on the page. All of which has raised immediate suspicions about its authenticity.

No other domestic media outlet has picked it up.

Prominent people do disappear from view in China. Sometimes it's billionaire businessmen. It's not usually athletes.

Sporting success, like Ms Peng's, has become a key component of the ruling Communist Party's soft power push. That is, however, yet to include a #MeToo moment.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 20, 2021, 01:42:12 AM
Sweet sounding Chinese pop song with anti-regime lyrics. 20 million views in two weeks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rp7UPbhErE (subtitled)

The male singer is Chinese Malaysian, the female singer is Taiwanese.

The chives in the video is a well known metaphor for the common working people, the Panda is Xi Jinping/ the CCP, "li'l pinky" refers to Chinese nationalists. Lot's of other little metaphors and imagery. Civets is a reference to SARS. You can probably identify a Covid-19 reference as well. Pineapples is a reference to harming Taiwan's economy, Apple is an anti-CCP Hong Kong daily paper as you may recall. 10 miles is a reference to some of Xi's nonsensical claims about his "toughness" during his youth.

Article in the Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/the-australian-singer-behind-the-viral-pop-hit-that-infuriated-beijing-20211118-p59a2a.html
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 20, 2021, 02:23:46 AM
Another song by the same artist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NtzsP8U6vc

(Kinmen is a small group of Taiwanese islands right off the mainland coast)

A video digging into the video a bit more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sDERBmygwY

Some of the symbolism of the video is explained.

Unsurprisingly the video is banned in the PRC.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 21, 2021, 03:00:33 PM
So... The peng case looks over?

BBC News - Peng Shuai: Chinese tennis star tells Olympic officials she is safe
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59368774

Though I don't know how they can say this. There might well be a security agent off camera with a gun to her dad's head.

And this is the ioc... Kind of known for corruption
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 29, 2021, 03:51:23 AM
Strong recommend on the recent Talking Politics episode with Cindy Yu.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 01, 2021, 02:44:42 PM
Maybe I spoke too soon with Peng.

BBC News - Peng Shuai: WTA announces immediate suspension of tournaments in China
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/59498779
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on December 06, 2021, 04:18:10 PM
QuoteUS confirms it will stage diplomatic boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics
Decision is response to what is described as China's 'genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang' and other abuses

The White House will stage a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, press secretary Jen Psaki has confirmed.

"The Biden administration will not send any diplomatic or official representation to the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympic Games, given the PRC's ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses," Psaki said from the briefing room podium on Monday.

The announcement comes two months before the games are to begin. American athletes are still expected to compete in the Olympics, despite the Biden administration not sending any representatives to Beijing.

"The athletes on Team USA have our full support," Psaki said. "We will be behind them 100% as we cheer them on from home. We will not be contributing to the fanfare of the games."

Psaki said the White House determined it would be wrong to deny athletes the opportunity to compete in the games, and she argued the lack of a diplomatic delegation would still send a "clear message" about the administration's priorities.

Before the announcement, China said a diplomatic boycott of the Olympics would be "a stain on the spirit of the Olympic charter" and "sensationalist and politically manipulative", in what appeared to be a further rift in the already strained bilateral relations.

The last time the US staged a full boycott of the Olympics was during the cold war in 1980, when the former president Jimmy Carter snubbed the Moscow summer Games along with 64 other countries and territories.

China's foreign ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, on Monday accused Washington of "hyping a 'diplomatic boycott' without even being invited to the Games".

"I want to stress that the Winter Olympic Games is not a stage for political posturing and manipulation," Zhao said. "It is a grave travesty of the spirit of the Olympic charter, a blatant political provocation and a serious affront to the 1.4 billion Chinese people."

The US diplomatic boycott comes amid escalating tensions between China and many western countries. It was first raised by Joe Biden last month as pressures grew in the US Congress over its concerns about China's human rights record, including over the treatment of Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities. Politicians including Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives, have advocated a boycott as protest.

Concerns have been raised in recent weeks over the treatment of the Chinese tennis star, Peng Shuai. The 35-year-old former doubles world No 1 last month accused a former senior Chinese politician of having coerced her into sex.

Countries from the US to Australia have since called on China's authorities to ensure Peng's wellbeing, and the Women's Tennis Association last week announced the suspension of future games in China.

Rights groups have also seized on the opportunity to urge the international community to boycott the Beijing Olympics.

In the UK, the Commons leader, Jacob Rees-Mogg, told MPs last month that "no tickets have been booked" for the Beijing Games in February. But he also added that the UK government "have long had a policy of thinking that sporting boycotts do not work and that it is a matter for the International Olympic Committee to decide whether the athletes go."

The Foreign Office said on Monday that "no decisions have yet been made" about the government's attendance at the Beijing Winter Olympics.

In Australia, Canberra last week joined 19 other countries in not signing the Olympic Truce – a tradition that dates back to ancient Greece and ensures conflicts don't disrupt the sports competition – with China in order to send a message to Beijing.

On Friday, the Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, said his government "was considering those matters and working through those issues".

Zhao on Monday said in response to Morrison's comments that "no one would care about whether these people come or not, and it has no impact whatsoever on the Olympics to be successfully held by Beijing".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on December 06, 2021, 04:45:28 PM
as long as the athletes still go this really doesn't mean much, i don't think.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on December 06, 2021, 04:47:40 PM
Quote from: HVC on December 06, 2021, 04:45:28 PM
as long as the athletes still go this really doesn't mean much, i don't think.

Still seems to upset the Chinese Communist Party though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on December 06, 2021, 04:49:54 PM
They have to say something because they need to have the last word, but internally i doubt most would notice (or even know depending on the level of censorship). Hard to hide missing countries on the field though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on December 06, 2021, 04:53:06 PM
The good thing about them being so prickly and quick to anger is that it doesn't take much to make a point.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 06, 2021, 04:56:24 PM
Quote from: HVC on December 06, 2021, 04:45:28 PM
as long as the athletes still go this really doesn't mean much, i don't think.
Yeah. We need to stop that too.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Savonarola on December 06, 2021, 04:56:40 PM
We use GPS for train location services and to set timing for our fiber backbones.  Today I got a request in from a project in the PRC to replace all GPS antennas and receivers (which have been used on the system for fifteen years) with GPS/BeiDou compatible antennas and receivers.  (I hope this is some sort of zany nationalism and not China's plan to jam GPS or something like that.)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 06, 2021, 05:18:57 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 06, 2021, 04:47:40 PM
Quote from: HVC on December 06, 2021, 04:45:28 PM
as long as the athletes still go this really doesn't mean much, i don't think.

Still seems to upset the Chinese Communist Party though.

Yup, a point is made. I actually think this is a reasonable way to do it. Boycotting something is a symbolic action, and this symbolism seems to be sticking in the CCP's craw. No need to punish athletes for whom going to the Olympics is potentially the highlight of their career when you can still make the symbolism stick.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 06, 2021, 05:26:22 PM
I also found the WTA's stance quite interesting and impressive compared to many other sports - maybe just a feature of it being an individual-led and dominated sport rather than one run by federations and clubs? :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on December 06, 2021, 05:30:43 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 06, 2021, 05:26:22 PM
I also found the WTA's stance quite interesting and impressive compared to many other sports - maybe just a feature of it being an individual-led and dominated sport rather than one run by federations and clubs? :hmm:

Yeah, the WTA President is a damn hero. Maybe its just because there is so much less to lose then what those fucking bootlickers at the NBA stand to lose?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 06, 2021, 05:33:33 PM
Quote from: Berkut on December 06, 2021, 05:30:43 PM
Yeah, the WTA President is a damn hero. Maybe its just because there is so much less to lose then what those fucking bootlickers at the NBA stand to lose?
Maybe - my guess is it's athlete power. Serena had posted about Peng and I think in tennis if a few of the top athletes who are big draws say they won't do something/don't want to go somewhere than it won't happen.

Teams and franchises and federations have lots of people to not take a stand and make a lot of money. See also the Arsenal and Ozil incident.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 06, 2021, 07:25:10 PM
Yeah I agree... in the NBA (and other leagues, like soccer) the teams are owned by someone or groups of someone who - while they may love the sport and have ethics and so on - are concerned about their return on investment. They're possibly also concerned about their other business interest, because team owners are typically rich folks with business interests.

But in tennis, are there any businesses or investors whose interests need to be safeguarded (as in, don't leave money on the table by displeasing China)? Or are the individual athletes the primary decision makers?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2021, 09:24:52 PM
There's also a significantly lower chance of an NBA player being sexually assaulted by a member of the Politburo.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on December 06, 2021, 09:50:11 PM
But they could be gulaged for unpatriotic thoughts.  The WTA has a lot less money tied up in China
Then the NBA or even the ITF. To sheilbh's point plenty of male tennis stars have spoken out but the ITF has said they won't boycott.  Morals are all well and good, but money talks.


*edit* ATP has said they won't boycott either.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 09, 2021, 05:55:27 PM
So Evergrande has apparently defaulted (Kaisa as well): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/evergrande-defaults-for-first-time-as-china-debt-strains-spread
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 09, 2021, 06:21:06 PM
Saw a random YouTube video today which said the bankruptcy of the natural railway wasn't far off on the horizon due to all the useless high speed line construction :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 29, 2021, 07:33:40 AM
Stand media shut down by police in Hong Kong this morning. Editors, board members and a pro-democracy popstar have been arrested.

We are a bit used to this now - it seems to be pretty minor news now (it was on the frontpage of the Guardian, but is now not) of the type we are used to. But the speed and range of the collapse in freedoms in Hong Kong is really astonishing.

From a purely UK perspective it's also essential we expand the criteria for the BNO visa route so as many people as possible can leave if they wish.

Edit: And vast majority of Hong Kongers detained under the National Security Law are not being allowed bail and are just being imprisoned until trial. So far that includes people who've been held for almost a year. This was reported on by Stand, whose journalists will now be added to that list :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on December 29, 2021, 03:55:45 PM
Well at least Mono is happy those rioters are getting what's coming to them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 29, 2021, 03:56:44 PM
Just wait till they come for the anime.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 29, 2021, 04:39:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 29, 2021, 03:55:45 PM
Well at least Mono is happy those rioters are getting what's coming to them.
Yeah - so for Mono's take there's the Chief Secretary for Administration (which I understand is the number 2 role in HK), John Lee's statement:
QuoteAnybody who attempts to make use of media work as a tool to pursue their political purpose or other interests and contravenes the law, particularly offences that endanger national security, they are the evil elements that damage press freedom. Professional media workers should recognise that these are the bad apples who are abusing their position simply by wearing a false coat of media worker and then, using that position, abuse news as a tool, to pursue their own purposes. They will pollute press freedom. They are the people who damage press freedom. Professional media workers should recognise this, say no to these people and stand far from them.

Which sounds like a pretty unveiled threat.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 29, 2021, 05:46:07 PM
I hope this is badly translated as he sure repeats the same dumb line a lot.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on December 29, 2021, 06:16:23 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 29, 2021, 05:46:07 PM
I hope this is badly translated as he sure repeats the same dumb line a lot.

I think that's intrinsic to a totalitarian regime - repeat the same lie often enough etc.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on December 29, 2021, 09:45:22 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 29, 2021, 07:33:40 AM
From a purely UK perspective it's also essential we expand the criteria for the BNO visa route so as many people as possible can leave if they wish.

one of the board members is also a Canadian citizen, she could have come back when she wanted, but stayed and fought.  Giving visas and citizenship don't matter much if the activists decide to stay.  Besides, with covid, it's a hell of a time for mass repatriation.  China sure knows when to act. :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on December 30, 2021, 09:09:22 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 29, 2021, 04:39:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 29, 2021, 03:55:45 PM
Well at least Mono is happy those rioters are getting what's coming to them.
Yeah - so for Mono's take there's the Chief Secretary for Administration (which I understand is the number 2 role in HK), John Lee's statement:
QuoteAnybody who attempts to make use of media work as a tool to pursue their political purpose or other interests and contravenes the law, particularly offences that endanger national security, they are the evil elements that damage press freedom. Professional media workers should recognise that these are the bad apples who are abusing their position simply by wearing a false coat of media worker and then, using that position, abuse news as a tool, to pursue their own purposes. They will pollute press freedom. They are the people who damage press freedom. Professional media workers should recognise this, say no to these people and stand far from them.

Which sounds like a pretty unveiled threat.

Just another patriot taking a stand against the biased mainstream media.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on January 05, 2022, 08:45:25 AM
https://kotaku.com/14-000-chinese-game-companies-have-gone-out-of-business-1848299632

Quote14,000 Chinese Game Companies Have Gone Out Of Business Due To Regulation Freeze

Regulators in China have not released a list of approved new titles since July 2021

China's freeze on video game licenses continues. South China Morning Post notes that the National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) has not released a list of newly approved titles since July 2021. Because of this, state-run newspaper Securities Daily reports, approximately 14,000 small game studios and video game connection companies, including those involved in merchandising or publishing, have gone under.

Typically, the NPPA approves around 80 to 100 games a month, so the lack of an approved list has ground part of the industry to a halt. China is such a massive market, and the hiatus has caused uncertainty that has led to layoffs at game companies, and conglomerates with game divisions. However, it sounds like the smaller outfits have been hit the hardest.

In comparison, companies like tech giant Tencent have continued to expand internationally as a way to balance the regulatory situation at home. SCMP points out that Tencent also plans to open a new studio in Singapore under the TiMi Studio Group, which is responsible for Tencent's mega-hit Honor of Kings. TiMi also has international studios in Montreal, Seattle, and Los Angeles.

No reason has been given for the hiatus, and the NPPA hasn't stated when approvals will restart. Prior to this latest freeze, the longest period that new game licenses were not released was a nine-month window in 2018.

SCMP points out that the approval freeze happened a few months after March 2021, when President Xi Jinping mentioned his concerns about gaming's psychological impact on young people. Later in August, state-run media referred to video games as "spiritual opium" and "electronic drugs." Then, on September 1, restrictions limiting the online gaming of the nation's youth went into effect. While these restrictions were not law (and were soon circumvented), the combined impact of all this, the lack of new game approvals, and general uncertainty, is impacting the industry—and not in a good way.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on January 05, 2022, 08:57:53 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 05, 2022, 08:45:25 AM
https://kotaku.com/14-000-chinese-game-companies-have-gone-out-of-business-1848299632

Quote14,000 Chinese Game Companies Have Gone Out Of Business Due To Regulation Freeze

Regulators in China have not released a list of approved new titles since July 2021

China's freeze on video game licenses continues. South China Morning Post notes that the National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) has not released a list of newly approved titles since July 2021. Because of this, state-run newspaper Securities Daily reports, approximately 14,000 small game studios and video game connection companies, including those involved in merchandising or publishing, have gone under.

Typically, the NPPA approves around 80 to 100 games a month, so the lack of an approved list has ground part of the industry to a halt. China is such a massive market, and the hiatus has caused uncertainty that has led to layoffs at game companies, and conglomerates with game divisions. However, it sounds like the smaller outfits have been hit the hardest.

In comparison, companies like tech giant Tencent have continued to expand internationally as a way to balance the regulatory situation at home. SCMP points out that Tencent also plans to open a new studio in Singapore under the TiMi Studio Group, which is responsible for Tencent's mega-hit Honor of Kings. TiMi also has international studios in Montreal, Seattle, and Los Angeles.

No reason has been given for the hiatus, and the NPPA hasn't stated when approvals will restart. Prior to this latest freeze, the longest period that new game licenses were not released was a nine-month window in 2018.

SCMP points out that the approval freeze happened a few months after March 2021, when President Xi Jinping mentioned his concerns about gaming's psychological impact on young people. Later in August, state-run media referred to video games as "spiritual opium" and "electronic drugs." Then, on September 1, restrictions limiting the online gaming of the nation's youth went into effect. While these restrictions were not law (and were soon circumvented), the combined impact of all this, the lack of new game approvals, and general uncertainty, is impacting the industry—and not in a good way.


Though Xi's still playing his favourite game, 'How to wreck a functioning semi-market economy in 10 simple patriotic moves'.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 06, 2022, 06:17:49 AM
It is so weird to see the same scenario play out in countries where a complexes-ridden cruel man establishes very centralised control, time and time again. Human existence is not nearly as free-willed an unique as it is made out to be.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on January 06, 2022, 08:45:52 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 06, 2022, 06:17:49 AM
It is so weird to see the same scenario play out in countries where a complexes-ridden cruel man establishes very centralised control, time and time again. Human existence is not nearly as free-willed an unique as it is made out to be.

But this time it is different!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on January 07, 2022, 12:18:42 AM
So SCMP is trying to blame climate change on... streaming k-pop.  :hmm:  :lmfao:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Savonarola on January 07, 2022, 10:51:52 AM
From Guardian News:

James Pond: Chinese state news agency releases spoof mocking MI6 focus on Beijing (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6og10hBza04)

QuoteBritain's spy chief has thanked China's state news agency for 'free publicity' after it posted a James Bond spoof that mocked the western intelligence community's growing focus on threats posed by Beijing. The rare response by the head of MI6, Richard Moore, on Thursday comes as China and Britain clash over Beijing's treatment of its Uyghur minority and creeping authoritarianism in the former British colony of Hong Kong.

Oh those wacky Chinese; the laugh track really makes the jokes sparkle.   :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 07, 2022, 12:46:10 PM
Is publicity something that spy agencies are looking for? :unsure:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 07, 2022, 12:49:52 PM
It's been a learning process given that it was only in the 80s that the the government acknowledged that MI6 existed :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 07, 2022, 01:18:49 PM
American accents have changed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 08, 2022, 06:12:55 PM
Huge Sunday Times story that HSBC has continued to buy shares in subsidiaries of  Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps which has been sanctioned by the US. They also issued some very pro-government statements during the Hong Kong protests and I wonder if there's an element of the Chhinese state making companies pick sides/dip their hands.

It's also a big story in the UK because there's UK "based" banks that basically make most of their money in Asia, like Standard Chartered. But HSBC are very much an Asian bank, but also one of the largest retail banks in the UK. All told they have 15 million customers here. It's ring-fnced as an entirely separate and separable entity (separate IT systems etc) because of UK banking regulations following the crash to ring-fence retail from investment banks totally. I'm starting to wonder if it's time to require that they do separate.

Separately HSBC have been fined a few billion in recent years by the US for money laundering that included Cuba, Iran, Libya and drug cartels. They've also just been fined a far smaller amount (same as always with the UK: great rules, pathetic enforcement) for systemic failures in money laundering. Plus the standard LIBOR fixing and tax evasion scandals that hit most large banks (and I think all banks on the LIBOR panel).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 10, 2022, 10:47:36 AM
China is building a massive new embassy in London in Royal Mint Court - there's a pleasing historical symmetry in China's embassy occupying the building that was the destination of the huge silver payments the UK extracted by force from the Qing dynasty. Like the new US embassy in Nine Elms, it's a really big development:
(https://www.cbre.co.uk/-/media/cbre/countryunitedkingdom/images/general/capital-markets-case-studies/royal-mint-court-chinese-embassy2-2639x1903.jpg)

It is, however, in Tower Hamlets and Tower Hamlets council in government by troling news have voted to consider renaming all the streets around the new Chinese embassy. They would now be named: Tiananmen Square, Uyghur Court, Hong Kong Road and Tibet Hill :lol:

I think part of the issue here may be that I think there's been quite a lot of protests in Bangladesh and in the Bengali community in the UK over Xinjiang and Tower Hamlets has a large Bengali community. Bangladeshi politics has quite a big impact in the borough - mainly, though not always, within the Labour party - so I imagine it probably also doesn't help that Bangladesh and China aren't super close. Bangladesh is quite selective of which Belt and Road projects it will allow. Plus China's close to Burma so I wonder iof they're maybe a little tainted with the Rohingya genocide.

Local councils in the UK have form for this - I think Glasgow renamed the street the South African consulate was on as Nelson Mandela Avenue in the 80s :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 10, 2022, 10:49:27 AM
They did the same in Budapest around the area where the government planned to sponsor building of student accommodations but instead sold the land to a Chinese state university.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 10, 2022, 10:55:26 AM
I appreciate the sentiment :)

Not that they're taking suggestions from me, but I think calling Tiananmen Square something like "June 4th Square" would work  better. No Chinese official noses are going to be out of joint over something called Tiananmen Square, I don't think, not anymore than an American would be upset about a place called "Washington Square" or "Washington Mall".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 10, 2022, 11:00:25 AM
I agree. Maybe they should install one of the memorial statues that have been taken down in Hong Kong :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 10, 2022, 11:00:55 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 10, 2022, 11:00:25 AM
I agree. Maybe they should install one of the memorial statues that have been taken down in Hong Kong :ph34r:

That would be brilliant.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 10, 2022, 11:44:29 AM
I approve.

I'll particularly laugh if they respond in kind and the British reaction is "yes.".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on January 19, 2022, 12:32:58 PM
China says that omicron introduced to China by mail from Canada. Going so far as to spread the rumor that it was done on purpose.

https://www.businessinsider.com/weibo-canada-mail-covid-19-omicron-poison-beijing-winter-olympics-2022-1
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 19, 2022, 02:51:51 PM
How ironic.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 19, 2022, 03:55:52 PM
When a country proclaims Canada its arch enemy you know that country is the baddies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 19, 2022, 04:07:42 PM
Apparently Slovenia is thinking of poking the panda and opening a trade relations office with Taiwan (rather than Taipei)... which is, as you recall, the reason China is so angry with Lithuania.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on January 19, 2022, 10:00:30 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 10, 2022, 10:55:26 AM
I appreciate the sentiment :)

Not that they're taking suggestions from me, but I think calling Tiananmen Square something like "June 4th Square" would work  better. No Chinese official noses are going to be out of joint over something called Tiananmen Square, I don't think, not anymore than an American would be upset about a place called "Washington Square" or "Washington Mall".
"Benedict Arnold Square" might elicit some kind of reaction, though. :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 19, 2022, 11:38:43 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2022, 10:00:30 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 10, 2022, 10:55:26 AM
I appreciate the sentiment :)

Not that they're taking suggestions from me, but I think calling Tiananmen Square something like "June 4th Square" would work  better. No Chinese official noses are going to be out of joint over something called Tiananmen Square, I don't think, not anymore than an American would be upset about a place called "Washington Square" or "Washington Mall".
"Benedict Arnold Square" might elicit some kind of reaction, though. :P

I don't know. I think feelings have cooled. After all he did win Saratoga.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2022, 06:17:23 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 19, 2022, 04:07:42 PM
Apparently Slovenia is thinking of poking the panda and opening a trade relations office with Taiwan (rather than Taipei)... which is, as you recall, the reason China is so angry with Lithuania.
I think they've gone further. The Slovenian PM said that whether or not to declare independence is a sovereign decision for the Taiwanese people :ph34r: :lol:

I find the small Eastern European countries poking China an interesting trend. I''m not sure how much of it is because they know they can't win the argument on China within the EU, so they're forcing the pace. They provoke China, China overreacts, that forces the EU to take a harder line to protect a member state.

I did see one article quoting a senior Brussels figure that everyone was getting a little bit sick of Lithuania. They read it as Lithuania trying to signal that they're on the US's side to help keep the US engaged in the Baltics, so it was all for the benefit of Lithuania-US relations. But, in that figures view, it was at the expense of the rest of Europe's relationship with China which was seen as very frustrating.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 20, 2022, 02:42:33 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 20, 2022, 06:17:23 AM
I think they've gone further. The Slovenian PM said that whether or not to declare independence is a sovereign decision for the Taiwanese people :ph34r: :lol:

Which it is. Good on him.

Just like it is the sovereign decision of the people of Quebec, the people of Greenland, the people of Scotland, and so on whether to declare independence or not.

QuoteI find the small Eastern European countries poking China an interesting trend. I''m not sure how much of it is because they know they can't win the argument on China within the EU, so they're forcing the pace. They provoke China, China overreacts, that forces the EU to take a harder line to protect a member state.

I did see one article quoting a senior Brussels figure that everyone was getting a little bit sick of Lithuania. They read it as Lithuania trying to signal that they're on the US's side to help keep the US engaged in the Baltics, so it was all for the benefit of Lithuania-US relations. But, in that figures view, it was at the expense of the rest of Europe's relationship with China which was seen as very frustrating.

I was wondering what the impetus was... I mean, I get the moral imperative but that's typically not that weighty. Aligning more closely with the US makes sense.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 20, 2022, 02:47:53 PM
Switzerland should have a referendum on recognising Taiwan. Unlikely to succeed but I'm sure there's enough people willing to sign to put it to the ballot. Or would its rejection help China?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 20, 2022, 06:30:30 PM
The cynic in me wonders if these guys didn't get any Belt and Road money.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 20, 2022, 06:53:14 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 20, 2022, 02:42:33 PM
I was wondering what the impetus was... I mean, I get the moral imperative but that's typically not that weighty. Aligning more closely with the US makes sense.
I think the moral imperative angle is bigger with the Baltic states or at least that's the impression give. Trying to be good allies with the US makes sense though.

Of course the irony with Slovenia is that's one of the countries there's been concerns about democratic backsliding in Europe and the PM has been accused of all sorts of media intimidation etc.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on January 23, 2022, 10:30:32 AM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2022, 10:00:30 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 10, 2022, 10:55:26 AM
I appreciate the sentiment :)

Not that they're taking suggestions from me, but I think calling Tiananmen Square something like "June 4th Square" would work  better. No Chinese official noses are going to be out of joint over something called Tiananmen Square, I don't think, not anymore than an American would be upset about a place called "Washington Square" or "Washington Mall".
"Benedict Arnold Square" might elicit some kind of reaction, though. :P

That would definitely warrant a chuckle, for sure.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 23, 2022, 12:25:27 PM
I do hope China try.
Though I guess they've got enough intelligence to know it would just make them look silly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 23, 2022, 10:41:21 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2022, 10:00:30 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 10, 2022, 10:55:26 AM
I appreciate the sentiment :)

Not that they're taking suggestions from me, but I think calling Tiananmen Square something like "June 4th Square" would work  better. No Chinese official noses are going to be out of joint over something called Tiananmen Square, I don't think, not anymore than an American would be upset about a place called "Washington Square" or "Washington Mall".
"Benedict Arnold Square" might elicit some kind of reaction, though. :P
No one really cares about him anymore. If the Chinese want to respond that way they should name streets after Confederate leaders. Jefferson Davis square, Robert E. Lee street, etc.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on January 23, 2022, 11:20:34 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 23, 2022, 10:41:21 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 19, 2022, 10:00:30 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 10, 2022, 10:55:26 AM
I appreciate the sentiment :)

Not that they're taking suggestions from me, but I think calling Tiananmen Square something like "June 4th Square" would work  better. No Chinese official noses are going to be out of joint over something called Tiananmen Square, I don't think, not anymore than an American would be upset about a place called "Washington Square" or "Washington Mall".
"Benedict Arnold Square" might elicit some kind of reaction, though. :P
No one really cares about him anymore. If the Chinese want to respond that way they should name streets after Confederate leaders. Jefferson Davis square, Robert E. Lee street, etc.

The idea that someone thinks an American would get bent out of shape over Benedict Arnold is even funnier then the idea of someone naming a street after him.

Even a Confederate would not enrage anyone - it would just be weird...like, why would someone in China care about a Confederate?

I am trying to imagine someone who would actually piss Americans off if another country named a street after them. Nothing really comes to mind though. Maybe you could piss off some Americans if you targetted specific political names, like Trump or Reagan or Obama?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on January 24, 2022, 12:38:32 AM
Bull Connor Blvd.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 24, 2022, 01:11:41 AM
Edward Snowden Boulevard might irk a few people.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2022, 01:50:01 AM
Tora Tora Tora Avenue

Hanoi Hilton Way

Bin Laden Place
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 24, 2022, 02:43:41 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2022, 01:11:41 AM
Edward Snowden Boulevard might irk a few people.

Yeah, him Assange and Chelsea Manning may be a bit of a thing. But it wouldn't rise to the same level as "Nation of Taiwan Plaza" or "June 4th Street" would for China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 24, 2022, 02:48:37 AM
Maybe if they go blunt?
"Fuck the Jews Avenue" or something?
Would be a bit of a cringe for sending post to the embassy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on January 24, 2022, 03:26:53 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 24, 2022, 02:43:41 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2022, 01:11:41 AM
Edward Snowden Boulevard might irk a few people.

Yeah, him Assange and Chelsea Manning may be a bit of a thing. But it wouldn't rise to the same level as "Nation of Taiwan Plaza" or "June 4th Street" would for China.

Want to trigger Republicans and split Democrats? Have an Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Square, and rename connecting roads Ilhan Omar Boulevard and Rashida Tlaib Avenue.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on January 24, 2022, 07:17:26 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 24, 2022, 02:43:41 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2022, 01:11:41 AM
Edward Snowden Boulevard might irk a few people.

Yeah, him Assange and Chelsea Manning may be a bit of a thing. But it wouldn't rise to the same level as "Nation of Taiwan Plaza" or "June 4th Street" would for China.

Derek Chauvin Place?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on January 24, 2022, 11:40:37 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2022, 01:50:01 AM
Tora Tora Tora Avenue

Hanoi Hilton Way

Bin Laden Place

None of those would have that element of national guilt though.

Even something like My Lai Avenue would just make most Americans think "Well, yeah, that was definitely fucked up and we cannot complain" mostly, as opposed to the national government getting all butthurt and demanding it be removed.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2022, 09:23:59 AM
They would have the element of national fuck you.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on January 25, 2022, 09:35:34 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2022, 09:23:59 AM
They would have the element of national fuck you.

Sure. I just don't see many Americans actually caring.

Hanoi Hilton? Americans don't look on that with embarrassment.

Bin Laden? You would just be saying "Hey, we are most definitely your enemy!". Just doesn't have the same angst behind it that seems so obvious when the CHinese government rails and gnashes their teeth over someone mentioning Taiwan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2022, 09:44:40 AM
Wouldn't the US equivalent be something like George Wallace Avenue, Bull Connor Square etc?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on January 25, 2022, 09:48:11 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 25, 2022, 09:44:40 AM
Wouldn't the US equivalent be something like George Wallace Avenue, Bull Connor Square etc?


It's like I don't even post here. :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 25, 2022, 09:48:11 AM
It's hard for an open society to be embarrassed by something.  In order for something to be embarrassing, you have to know that it's true, everyone else has to know that it's true, and you have to stubbornly be refusing to talk about it.  Internal dissent kind of provides an exposure therapy for all the embarrassing stuff.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2022, 09:57:43 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 25, 2022, 09:48:11 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 25, 2022, 09:44:40 AM
Wouldn't the US equivalent be something like George Wallace Avenue, Bull Connor Square etc?


It's like I don't even post here. :(
Soz - I read and then forgot :blush:

QuoteIt's hard for an open society to be embarrassed by something.  In order for something to be embarrassing, you have to know that it's true, everyone else has to know that it's true, and you have to stubbornly be refusing to talk about it.  Internal dissent kind of provides an exposure therapy for all the embarrassing stuff.
I think the key is that with the Chinese examples it is embarrassment as you say.

The nearest equivalent for the US in terms of emotional responses seems to me to be shame - it would be segregation and slavery which is undoubtedly a part of the American story, but something that the majority of Americans feel shame and guilt over. I think the British equivalent would be things around imperialism: Bengal famine, Amritsar massacre etc.

But shame is different from embarrassment - I think for China or any other state experienced imperialism shame would probably be tied to that (Shimonoseki Treaty Street, Treaty of Nanking Square etc) :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2022, 10:41:58 AM
Anyone seen Raz?

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on January 25, 2022, 11:34:47 AM
Sheilbh, I think you vastly vastly overrate the historical knowledge of the average citizen.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on January 25, 2022, 12:55:28 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 25, 2022, 11:34:47 AM
Sheilbh, I think you vastly vastly overrate the historical knowledge of the average citizen.

Agree. I don't think we are keeping those names around but rather letting them fall into the historical dustbin.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2022, 12:59:59 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 25, 2022, 11:34:47 AM
Sheilbh, I think you vastly vastly overrate the historical knowledge of the average citizen.
Fair - but I think if Beijing council decided to rename all the streets around the UK's embassy after imperial atrocities it would definitely provoke a similar response even if the knowledge wasn't there to begin with. Probably a mix of outrage from the imperial nostalgists ("why isn't this named The Railways and Cricket Avenue?!") and shame and guilt from the rest of us.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on January 25, 2022, 01:08:59 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 25, 2022, 09:57:43 AM

Soz - I read and then forgot :blush:



:hug:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on January 25, 2022, 01:10:11 PM
They can put the US embassy on a street name that includes the N-word. Officially they can say it's about remembering US slavery and present-day US racism.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 25, 2022, 01:29:27 PM
I think a German embassy on Adolf-Hitler-Plaza or so would not work. Probably reason enough to stop diplomatic relations. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on January 26, 2022, 11:36:44 PM
We might get that one day in Namibia.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 07, 2022, 06:34:44 AM
Time for the UK to recognise Taiwan? :hmm:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/07/truss-says-falklands-part-of-british-family-after-china-supports-argentinas-c
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 07, 2022, 06:37:02 AM
I don't know why but Truss seems to have annoyed China - there's been a couple of pieces in the Chinese media basically saying she's not an iron lady but a "chocolate soldier". I don't think Raab had any similar response. I'm not sure why :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 07, 2022, 11:32:00 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 07, 2022, 06:34:44 AM
Time for the UK to recognise Taiwan? :hmm:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/07/truss-says-falklands-part-of-british-family-after-china-supports-argentinas-c

Your link isn't working and appears to be truncated.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 17, 2022, 10:37:03 AM
Very good special by the New Statesman on the Uyghurs - I think it is out of the paywall for a period too:
https://www.newstatesman.com/uyghur-special/2022/02/the-silencing-a-special-report-on-china-the-uyghurs-and-a-culture-under-attack
QuoteThe Silencing: a special report on China, the Uyghurs and a culture under attack
(https://www.newstatesman.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/02/1038x788_-1-960x1280.jpg)
From Xinjiang's network of detention centres to the suppression of tradition, writers report on China's relentless campaign against the Uyghurs – and what will be lost if it succeeds.
By Katie Stallard

It is no longer credible to say we don't know what is happening to the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. You can say you don't care, as the billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya did in January when he said the plight of the Uyghurs was "below my line". But we can no longer pretend the atrocities aren't well documented.

The combined weight of satellite imagery, official documents and survivor testimony that has accumulated over the last five years sets out the Chinese government's actions in Xinjiang in devastating and undeniable detail. The UK parliament, although so far not Boris Johnson's government, has declared the situation genocide.

International attention on this issue tends to focus on the sprawling network of internment camps and prisons where between one and three million people have been confined. Rightly so. These mass detentions are shameful and those responsible must be held to account. Reports of forced sterilisation, systematic torture and rape must be urgently investigated. The severity of these alleged abuses cannot simply be shrugged off or deemed to be below some arbitrary line that might warrant concern.   

But the horrors of Xinjiang are not confined to the high concrete walls of the camps. The entire region has been transformed into what amounts to an open-air prison for the Uyghurs and people from other ethnic minorities. Checkpoints and surveillance cameras blanket the cities. Facial recognition technology and mandatory location-tracking apps on mobile phones allow constant, real-time monitoring of the cities' inhabitants. Party cadres from China's ethnic majority Han population are encouraged to stay overnight with Uyghur families, who are predominantly Muslim, and monitor them for signs of "extremism", which might include praying or declining to eat pork or drink alcohol.   

China's constitution guarantees its citizens "freedom of religious belief" but this right exists in name alone, something the country's Christians can also attest. In Xinjiang displaying any outward sign of religious faith now renders one subject to suspicion and an indeterminate period of detention. Under Xi Jinping, the president, only worship of the party and his leadership is allowed. Thousands of mosques and shrines dating back to the 10th century have been bulldozed, although officials deny they are destroying these sites, insisting they are merely working "to protect them".     

Beijing claims to be fighting a "war on terror" in Xinjiang, pointing to the region's borders with Afghanistan and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, and the number of Uyghurs who have joined groups such as Islamic State or carried out attacks in China. Yet the campaign the authorities have waged in the years since Xi came to power goes far beyond any plausible counterterrorism campaign. As well as the detentions and the relentless surveillance and harassment, the government has embarked on a programme of forced assimilation that seems intended to destroy the Uyghurs' identity.

Given the extent to which Xi has personalised power in China, it is inconceivable that he does not know what is happening in Xinjiang. He could halt these policies immediately if he wanted to. Instead, as detailed in leaked documents, he has urged officials to show "absolutely no mercy" in what he characterises as a "struggle against terrorism, infiltration and separatism".

This is not happening in isolation. Xi has presided over a broad crackdown on human rights and individual freedoms across China, as well as the destruction of civil society in Hong Kong. If the UK government resumes trade talks in pursuit of stronger economic ties with China despite all of this, as the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has urged, this will send the unfortunate message that post-Brexit Britain is more interested in attracting Chinese investment than it is in human rights. Sunak has insisted it is possible to do both, to speak up for human rights while increasing trade, but Beijing respects actions more than it does words.

The Uyghurs' story goes far beyond their present victimhood. The New Statesman's series of essays set out not just the Chinese authorities' relentless campaign against the Uyghurs, but what will be lost if they succeed: the unique history, culture and heritage that is at stake.

John Simpson goes behind Xi Jinping's Great Wall of Iron
How China's Uyghur population became the target of a merciless campaign of collective punishment.

Katie Stallard on the subjugation of Xinjiang
Xinjiang has long been treated with suspicion. At least one million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities have been imprisoned in the Xinjiang region. The Chinese say they are combating separatism and religious extremism. Western governments call it genocide.

Rian Thum and Musapir on the suppression of Uyghur culture
Shaped over centuries by pilgrimage, trade, art and war, a unique culture has been suppressed and exploited by Beijing. Can Uyghur distinctiveness re-emerge?

Elif Shafak on why the greatest threat to the Uyghurs is Western apathy
We know that populist dictators are emboldened by each other's atrocities, so how many more disappearances will it take before China crosses the West's "red line"?

Anoosh Chakelian meets the exiled poet Fatimah Abdulghafur Seyyah
Sharing a series of specially commissioned poems, the Uyghur writer, who left China in 2010, discusses her family's devastating persecution.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 17, 2022, 11:21:58 AM
The CBC has an article on the topic also - from an American scholar who's been in Xinjang and witnessed the transformation into technology enabled totalitarianism:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/china-s-high-tech-repression-of-uyghurs-is-more-sinister-and-lucrative-than-it-seems-anthropologist-says-1.6352535
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on February 17, 2022, 12:49:34 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 17, 2022, 11:21:58 AM
The CBC has an article on the topic also - from an American scholar who's been in Xinjang and witnessed the transformation into technology enabled totalitarianism:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/china-s-high-tech-repression-of-uyghurs-is-more-sinister-and-lucrative-than-it-seems-anthropologist-says-1.6352535

This is why we need to be careful not to pretend like this (or Russia for that matter) is some kind of reversion back to some historical pre-pax Americana state. It is not.

It is not a return to Great Power regional geo politics. It is something different, and something new, and needs to be evaluated on its own merits and challenges.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 22, 2022, 08:44:00 PM
Another interesting (to me at least) article in the Texas National Security Review on China, the US (and the West), and Globalization: https://tnsr.org/2022/01/the-growing-rivalry-between-america-and-china-and-the-future-of-globalization/

It provides a brief overview of the history of globalization, and examines five possible future scenarios. Of the five, the one that it considers best of the most likely outcomes is what it calls Globalization 2.5 - an American led Western/ Free World trading system distinct from Chinese led trading system. The two are not exactly walled off from each other, but exchanges are done in a more controlled and fairly scrutinized manner.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on February 24, 2022, 10:09:27 AM
https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1496837845092548609?s=20&t=rJqRR3cyXkCDDe1CtiPj8w

Quote國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C. 🇹🇼
@MoNDefense

9 PLA aircraft (Y-8 RECCE and J-16*8) entered #Taiwan's southwest ADIZ on February 24, 2022. Please check our official website for more information: https://bit.ly/353feQg

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMXWFHdaAAI-Ie9?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMXWFHeagAQI4it?format=jpg&name=medium)

Hopefully just an ill timed coincidence. Possibly a message sent to Taiwan and Western countries.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 24, 2022, 12:47:50 PM
Isn't this a regular occurrence?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2022, 05:06:08 PM
Quote from: mongers on February 24, 2022, 10:18:04 AM
Very likely so.

Crop your quotes you lazy git. :bleeding:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on February 24, 2022, 05:44:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2022, 05:06:08 PM
Quote from: mongers on February 24, 2022, 10:18:04 AM
Very likely so.

Crop your quotes you lazy git. :bleeding:

:D
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on February 25, 2022, 12:31:56 PM
Quote from: mongers on February 24, 2022, 05:44:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2022, 05:06:08 PM
Quote from: mongers on February 24, 2022, 10:18:04 AM
Very likely so.

Crop your quotes you lazy git. :bleeding:

:D

:)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 03, 2022, 02:48:29 PM
Looks like China is beginning to block pro-Ukraine voices on social media.

Previously it'd been very much two sides in fierce debate, but it looks like a decision has been made by the government.

Not that it surprises anyone, I don't think.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 03, 2022, 03:16:30 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 03, 2022, 02:48:29 PMLooks like China is beginning to block pro-Ukraine voices on social media.

Previously it'd been very much two sides in fierce debat, but it looks like a decision has been made by the government.

Not that it surprises anyone, I don't think.
I wonder what the play is.
They know they don't have that good will to lose anyway so being slightly pro Russia helps with vasalising them over the years to come?

I do wonder whether all this has taken china's attention away from Taiwan a bit and towards the bigger resource gains (but much smaller prestige, national destiny, etc.. Gains) of increasing influence in the Russian far east.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 03, 2022, 05:35:30 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 03, 2022, 02:48:29 PMLooks like China is beginning to block pro-Ukraine voices on social media.

Previously it'd been very much two sides in fierce debat, but it looks like a decision has been made by the government.

Not that it surprises anyone, I don't think.
On the other hand the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which was seen as a potential Chinese version of the IMF/World Bank has all operations in Russia and Belarus on hold.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on March 03, 2022, 06:09:10 PM
They don't want to be sanctioned/fined as collateral damage, but at the same time don't want to give people the idea that resistance against an evil occupying force is a good idea?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 12:00:35 AM
I wonder what China is going to do at this point.

There was an interesting article in official Chinese media arguing that China should repudiate Russian aggression and engage more closely with the rules based Western order. It sounds nice, but I am sceptical that Xi's regime will go that way.

Then, of course, there's the converse action - going all in supporting Russia (probably in return for vassalizing Russia as much as possible), providing arms and financial assistance and so on. The bet, I guess, would be that the West wouldn't be up for the mutually assured economic destruction that a proper response would entail; and then the West would be shown to be weak and in decline just like Putin and Xi and their enablers have declared for so long. But I don't know if Xi is brave enough, nor desperate enough, to make that bet now.

Then I guess there are two neutralish scenarios. One where China genuinely stays mostly neutral, letting Russia flounder, helping only a little bit here and there where China can take significant advantage of Russian desperation; and another scenario where they claim to be doing that (staying neutral), while helping Russia as much as they can on the down-low, without being caught be Western sanctions.

Personally, I expect Xi to do something in the neutralish range of things, probably supporting Russia more than we'd like but not enough to really rock the boat.

Then of course there's Taiwan.

What do you reckon the Beijing regime will do? If any of you have good links with analysis of China's actions and options (and Western actions and options towards China), please share.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 12:30:43 AM
FT on China re: Russia, Ukraine, etc: https://www.ft.com/content/50aa901a-0b32-438b-aef2-c6a4fc803a11

One thing I hadn't considered was the potential impact on China from the massive increase in both oil & gas and commodity (esp. food) prices. China is the biggest global importer of both oil & gas and food, China is struggling to meet tepid financial targets, and China's upcoming harvest is apparently going to be really bad due to weather. That could put some real inflationary and quality of life pressures on the population and thus the regime.

The other thing that's standing out is that there are two possible stories about how much Xi and the PRC knew, and neither are particularly flattering. Either they knew of Putin's planned anschluss of Ukraine and did nothing, countenancing it with total inaction. That makes Xi somewhat complicit. Alternately, Xi and his regime were caught as flatfooted as the rest of us, which indicates that his the Chinese-Russian friendship "with no limits" in fact does have limits and Chinese intelligence is pretty useless when it comes to Russia.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 01:18:32 AM
Found the piece I was referencing earlier:

The twitter summary here (https://twitter.com/ramez/status/1502895847301812224).

The actual article here (https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/):
QuotePossible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China's Choice

Update on March 13, 2022: The following article was submitted by the author to the Chinese-language edition of the US-China Perception Monitor. The article was not commissioned by the US-China Perception Monitor, nor is the author affiliated with the Carter Center or the US-China Perception Monitor.

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. To read more by Hu, click here to read his article on "How did Deng Xiaoping coordinate domestic and international affairs?"

Written on March 5, 2022. Translated by Jiaqi Liu on March 12, 2022.


The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will result in far greater global consequences than September 11 attacks. At this critical moment, China needs to accurately analyze and assess the direction of the war and its potential impact on the international landscape. At the same time, in order to strive for a relatively favorable external environment, China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests.

Russia's 'special military operation' against Ukraine has caused great controvsery in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options.

I. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

1.  Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin's attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia's domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine's capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin's best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.

2.  The conflict may escalate further, and the West's eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia's military power is no match for NATO's, would be even worse for Putin.

3.  Even if Russia manages to seize Ukraine in a desperate gamble, it is still a political hot potato. Russia would thereafter carry a heavy burden and become overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter whether Volodymyr Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to confront Russia in the long term. Russia will be subject both to Western sanctions and rebellion within the territory of Ukraine. The battle lines will be drawn very long. The domestic economy will be unsustainable and will eventually be dragged down. This period will not exceed a few years.

4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated at the hands of the West. After Putin's blitzkrieg failed, the hope of Russia's victory is slim and Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented degree. As people's livelihoods are severely affected and as anti-war and anti-Putin forces gather, the possibility of a political mutiny in Russia cannot be ruled out. With Russia's economy on the verge of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to prop up the perilous situation even without the loss of the Russo-Ukrainian war. If Putin were to be ousted from power due to civil strife, coup d'état, or another reason, Russia would be even less likely to confront the West. It would surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia's status as a great power would come to an end.

II. Analysis of the Impact of Russo-Ukrainian war On International Landscape

1. The United States would regain leadership in the Western world, and the West would become more united. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war signifies a complete collapse of U.S. hegemony, but the war would in fact bring France and Germany, both of which wanted to break away from the U.S., back into the NATO defense framework, destroying Europe's dream to achieve independent diplomacy and self-defense. Germany would greatly increase its military budget; Switzerland, Sweden, and other countries would abandon their neutrality. With Nord Stream 2 put on hold indefinitely, Europe's reliance on US natural gas will inevitably increase. The US and Europe would form a closer community of shared future, and American leadership in the Western world will rebound.

2. The "Iron Curtain" would fall again not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but also to the final confrontation between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line between democracies and authoritarian states, defining the divide with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain will no longer be drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor will it be confined to the Cold War. It will be a life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy. The unity of the Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries: the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and other countries like Japan will stick even closer to the U.S., which will form an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.

3. The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scene after the 1991 Soviet and Eastern upheavals may repeat itself: theories on "the end of ideology" may reappear, the resurgence of the third wave of democratization will lose momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will possess more "hegemony" both in terms of military power and in terms of values and institutions, its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.

4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West. Once Putin falls, the U.S. will no longer face two strategic competitors but only have to lock China in strategic containment. Europe will further cut itself off from China; Japan will become the anti-China vanguard; South Korea will further fall to the U.S.; Taiwan will join the anti-China chorus, and the rest of the world will have to choose sides under herd mentality. China will not only be militarily encircled by the U.S., NATO, the QUAD, and AUKUS, but also be challenged by Western values and systems.

III. China's Strategic Choice

1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and the West helps divert U.S. attention from China, China should rejoice with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall. Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless Putin can secure victory with China's backing, a prospect which looks bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia. The law of international politics says that there are "no eternal allies nor perpetual enemies," but "our interests are eternal and perpetual." Under current international circumstances, China can only proceed by safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils, and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively.

2. China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present, China has tried not to offend either side and walked a middle ground in its international statements and choices, including abstaining from the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly votes. However, this position does not meet Russia's needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side of much of the world. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a sensible choice, but it does not apply to this war, where China has nothing to gain. Given that China has always advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can avoid further isolation only by standing with the majority of the countries in the world. This position is also conducive to the settlement of the Taiwan issue.

3. China should achieve the greatest possible strategic breakthrough and not be further isolated by the West. Cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality will help build China's international image and ease its relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring great wisdom, it is the best option for the future. The view that a geopolitical tussle in Europe triggered by the war in Ukraine will significantly delay the U.S. strategic shift from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region cannot be treated with excessive optimism. There are already voices in the U.S. that Europe is important, but China is more so, and the primary goal of the U.S. is to contain China from becoming the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, China's top priority is to make appropriate strategic adjustments accordingly, to change the hostile American attitudes towards China, and to save itself from isolation. The bottom line is to prevent the U.S. and the West from imposing joint sanctions on China.

4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. As Putin has explicitly requested Russia's strategic deterrent forces to enter a state of special combat readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian war may spiral out of control. A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little. If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world's turmoil. To demonstrate China's role as a responsible major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin's possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin's departure from China's support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.

I don't think Xi is going to heed this advice. But it's interesting to see an analysis focused on "what's best for China", IMO.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on March 14, 2022, 05:32:31 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 01:18:32 AMFound the piece I was referencing earlier:
... snip ...
I don't think Xi is going to heed this advice. But it's interesting to see an analysis focused on "what's best for China", IMO.

Thanks for that interesting article, Jacob.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 14, 2022, 06:46:49 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 12:30:43 AMFT on China re: Russia, Ukraine, etc: https://www.ft.com/content/50aa901a-0b32-438b-aef2-c6a4fc803a11

One thing I hadn't considered was the potential impact on China from the massive increase in both oil & gas and commodity (esp. food) prices. China is the biggest global importer of both oil & gas and food, China is struggling to meet tepid financial targets, and China's upcoming harvest is apparently going to be really bad due to weather. That could put some real inflationary and quality of life pressures on the population and thus the regime.

The other thing that's standing out is that there are two possible stories about how much Xi and the PRC knew, and neither are particularly flattering. Either they knew of Putin's planned anschluss of Ukraine and did nothing, countenancing it with total inaction. That makes Xi somewhat complicit. Alternately, Xi and his regime were caught as flatfooted as the rest of us, which indicates that his the Chinese-Russian friendship "with no limits" in fact does have limits and Chinese intelligence is pretty useless when it comes to Russia.

Of course they knew. Vlad telegraphed that shit for months.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 14, 2022, 12:06:59 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on March 14, 2022, 06:46:49 AMOf course they knew. Vlad telegraphed that shit for months.

Then they are smarter than everyone else.  If people are now saying they knew for sure an invasion of all Ukraine was going to happen months before it did - they are likely bullshitting you.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 12:08:22 PM
I'd be pretty amazing if they knew months ahead when it looks like most of Russia's administration - and most of the people involved in the actual invasion - didn't know until a few days before.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on March 14, 2022, 12:32:01 PM
We've been talking about it since November.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 14, 2022, 12:59:03 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on March 14, 2022, 12:32:01 PMWe've been talking about it since November.


"It"?  Who here since November knew that an invasion of this type would occur.  There was a lot of talk about attempts to take the so called separatist areas similar to what occurred with Crimea.  But if you can point to one person who predicted what actually happened I would be obliged if you could point that truly prescient person out. 

I believe it was Berkut who came closest but even he, amongst Languishites, did not predict this.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 03:27:08 PM
I guess the CIA should've been reading languish instead of trying to do their own analysis of China's knowledge and reaction.

QuoteThe brutality of President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has "unsettled" President Xi Jinping and spurred fissures between Russia and China, U.S. intelligence believes, undermining concerted public efforts by the two powers to appear aligned in their respective efforts to grab power internationally.

Despite heavy Chinese investments in its partnership with Russia in recent years, "the Chinese leadership, President Xi in particular, is unsettled by what he's seeing" in Europe, CIA Director William Burns told Congress on Thursday, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on a scale unseen on the continent since World War II.

"His own intelligence doesn't appear to have told him what was going to happen," Burns said of Xi, citing also the Chinese Communist Party leader's new concerns about "the reputational damage that China suffers by associating with the ugliness of Russia's aggression with Ukraine."

Burns' comments to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, as a part of annual hearings regarding threats to the U.S., represent the first major public assessment of what China knew in advance of Russia's assault on its former Soviet ally. And they signal troubling tensions between Moscow and the Chinese financial juggernaut that Putin appears to have believed would bail out Russia in the wake of predictable Western economic sanctions.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2022-03-10/u-s-intel-china-alarmed-by-russian-brutality-in-ukraine
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 07:05:19 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 14, 2022, 05:32:31 AMThanks for that interesting article, Jacob.

So apparently the author has now been completely scoured from Chinese social media, so I guess that was a little too honest for the regime.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on March 14, 2022, 07:10:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 14, 2022, 07:05:19 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 14, 2022, 05:32:31 AMThanks for that interesting article, Jacob.

So apparently the author has now been completely scoured from Chinese social media, so I guess that was a little too honest for the regime.

Yes, it was interesting that the Chinese critiques centered around (1) the government cannot follow this advice without losing face, and (2) many Western commentators on the piece overestimated Hu's importance.  None of them seemed to address the substance of his arguments.

The article had ben published in China for a week without pushback.  It was only when the Carter Center translated and published it that it became incorrect.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 15, 2022, 05:07:46 AM
China has apparently completed wasted the last two years of ironclad lockdowns and is probably going to melt down as badly as India.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420660869214213
QuoteNEW: I'm not sure people appreciate quite how bad the Covid situation is in Hong Kong, nor what might be around the corner.

First, an astonishing chart.

After keeping Covid at bay for two years, Omicron has hit HK and New Zealand, but the outcomes could not be more different. 1

After accounting for lag between infection & death, *1 in 20* cases in Hong Kong currently ends in death.

To put that into context, HK's case fatality rate (NB different to infection fatality rate) is currently higher than England's pre-vaccine peak. Two years into the pandemic. 2

Hong Kong doesn't just look grim when compared to its Asia-Pacific peers.

In March 2020 we saw awful pictures from northern Italy. Last winter, UK & Portugal saw huge mortality spikes, and last summer it was Namibia, but Hong Kong has now set a new global record for daily deaths 3

e cumulative view almost looks like a glitch in the data.

Hong Kong's total death toll has risen almost vertically in the last two weeks, shooting past not only its Asia-Pacific peers, but now European countries including Norway and Finland. And that line will keep rising. 4

Comparing Hong Kong to its peers, all of whom kept Covid largely at bay for the best part of two years, it's extraordinary the extent to which it is an outlier in terms of the lethality of this wave.

So what's driving this? 5

Vaccines.

Or more specifically: the elderly vaccination rate.

When Omicron hit, *more than two-thirds of people aged 80+ in Hong Kong were still unvaccinated*, compared to a couple of percent in New Zealand and Singapore. This was a year after vaccines became available. 6

Exacerbating this is that most of Hong Kong's elderly vaccinees had China's non-mRNA Sinovac shot, which is less effective than Pfizer etc at blocking infection.

Sinovac does fare better against severe disease, but overall this is likely to have contributed to the poor outcomes. 7

Now you might think, well, the over-80s are only a small share of the population, so surely this can't have such an enormous impact on overall fatality rates? 8

But that would be to miss the fact that, all else being equal, older people are at far *far* higher risk of death from Covid than younger 9

So vax rates by age are better understood like this, with bars sized according to each age group's baseline mortality risk.

That is a helluva lot of red, unvaxxed people. And in Zero Covid countries there are no prior infections, so these people are completely immuno-naive. 10

In a situation grimly reminiscent of England in March 2020, outbreaks have torn through Hong Kong's care homes, killing more than 1,000 vulnerable residents in a matter of days.

Again, this is two years into the pandemic. 11

Here's our full story, from @mroliverbarnes, @primroseriordan, @imandylin2 and me, on the crisis in Hong Kong and how it got there https://ft.com/content/6e610cac-400b-4843-a07b-7d870e8635a3

But there's more...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 17, 2022, 12:10:26 AM
Looks like the Chinese are actively spying and attempting to influence the US through various covert means:

QuoteUnsealed files have revealed a plot by five people working on behalf of Chinese secret police to stalk and harass a US military veteran running for Congress, and to spy on an artist.

It is the first time, they say, a federal election campaign has been undermined in this way in America.

The perpetrators went to "outrageous and dangerous" lengths to do so, the Department of Justice said.

Three of the accused have been arrested, but two are at large.

According to court documents, they are accused of "transnational repression schemes" to target American residents whose political views and actions were "disfavoured by the People's Republic of China (PRC) government".

The co-conspirators allegedly tried to "interfere with federal elections" by orchestrating a campaign to undermine the US congressional candidacy of a military veteran who was once a leader of the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations in Beijing.

In another plot, they planned to destroy the work of a Chinese artist, living in Los Angeles, who had been critical of his home government, and allegedly planted spy equipment in the artist's workplace and car.

Fan "Frank" Liu, Matthew Ziburis and Shujun Wang were all arrested in the Eastern District of New York earlier this week.

Two other suspects, Qiang "Jason" Sun and Qiming Lin are at large.

Breon Peace, US attorney for the Eastern District of New York, said the plots had involved campaigns to "silence, harass, discredit and spy" on US residents for "simply exercising their freedom of speech".

More here: https://www.bbc.com/news/60773595

This can't be good for US - Chinese relations at this delicate time...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on March 17, 2022, 12:16:47 AM
I'm surprised they haven't thrown a bag over your head and spirited you to Shanghai on a tramp steamer by now, Xiacob.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 17, 2022, 01:10:14 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 17, 2022, 12:16:47 AMI'm surprised they haven't thrown a bag over your head and spirited you to Shanghai on a tramp steamer by now, Xiacob.

Heh. That's funny for a number of reasons I'm not going to discuss in a publicly searchable forum.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 17, 2022, 04:03:19 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 17, 2022, 01:10:14 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 17, 2022, 12:16:47 AMI'm surprised they haven't thrown a bag over your head and spirited you to Shanghai on a tramp steamer by now, Xiacob.

Heh. That's funny for a number of reasons I'm not going to discuss in a publicly searchable forum.

Jacob is a CCP agent. Confirmed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 17, 2022, 08:51:28 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 17, 2022, 04:03:19 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 17, 2022, 01:10:14 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 17, 2022, 12:16:47 AMI'm surprised they haven't thrown a bag over your head and spirited you to Shanghai on a tramp steamer by now, Xiacob.

Heh. That's funny for a number of reasons I'm not going to discuss in a publicly searchable forum.

Jacob is a CCP agent. Confirmed.

He did stop posting for a while.

So did Seedy

 :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on March 17, 2022, 09:05:27 AM
They wouldn't know they both are CCP agents. China keeps those very separated & with a small scope of missions.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 17, 2022, 10:24:27 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 17, 2022, 04:03:19 AMJacob is a CCP agent. Confirmed.

Go fuck yourself, you Putin-supporting stooge.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on March 17, 2022, 10:29:03 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 17, 2022, 10:24:27 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 17, 2022, 04:03:19 AMJacob is a CCP agent. Confirmed.

Go fuck yourself, you Putin-supporting stooge.

I find it encouraging that the Xi and Putin stooges here on languish are fighting.  Hopefully,  they are representative of their counterparts in the two governments.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 17, 2022, 11:14:43 AM
Quote from: grumbler on March 17, 2022, 10:29:03 AM
Quote from: Jacob on March 17, 2022, 10:24:27 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 17, 2022, 04:03:19 AMJacob is a CCP agent. Confirmed.

Go fuck yourself, you Putin-supporting stooge.

I find it encouraging that the Xi and Putin stooges here on languish are fighting.  Hopefully,  they are representative of their counterparts in the two governments.

 :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 17, 2022, 11:16:34 AM
I thnk
Quote from: Grey Fox on March 17, 2022, 09:05:27 AMThey wouldn't know they both are CCP agents. China keeps those very separated & with a small scope of missions.



Seedy let slip Jacob's code name very early on - and then tried to recover by trying to turn it into a joke.  Same mission?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 17, 2022, 04:51:52 PM
Testing out posting images:

hug.jpg

panda01.jpg
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 17, 2022, 06:55:47 PM
top one
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on March 21, 2022, 02:34:20 PM
QuoteChina has fully militarized at least three of several islands it built in the disputed South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment, and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby, a top U.S. military commander said Sunday.

U.S. Indo-Pacific commander Adm. John C. Aquilino said the hostile actions were in stark contrast to Chinese President Xi Jinping's past assurances that Beijing would not transform the artificial islands in contested waters into military bases. The efforts were part of China's flexing its military muscle, he said.


QuoteAs the P-8A Poseidon flew as low as 15,000 feet (4,500 meters) near the Chinese-occupied reefs, some appeared to be like small cities on screen monitors, with multi-story buildings, warehouses, hangars, seaports, runways and white round structures Aquilino said were radars. Near Fiery Cross, more than 40 unspecified vessels could be seen apparently anchored.

Aquilino said the construction of missile arsenals, aircraft hangars, radar systems and other military facilities on Mischief Reef, Subi Reef and Fiery Cross appeared to have been completed but it remains to be seen if China will pursue the construction of military infrastructure in other areas.

"The function of those islands is to expand the offensive capability of the PRC beyond their continental shores," he said. "They can fly fighters, bombers plus all those offensive capabilities of missile systems."

He said any military and civilian plane flying over the disputed waterway could easily get within range of the Chinese islands' missile system.

"So that's the threat that exists, that's why it's so concerning for the militarization of these islands," he said. "They threaten all nations who operate in the vicinity and all the international sea and airspace."


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-admiral-says-china-has-fully-militarized-at-least-three-islands-in/


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 05, 2022, 03:46:49 PM
Article on what lessons China may draw from the Russian invasion of Ukraine so far:

QuoteWhat Is China Learning from the Ukraine War?
From battlefield concepts to geopolitics, Beijing is sure to be watching with avid interest—and some chagrin.

By THOMAS CORBETT, MA XIU and PETER W. SINGER
APRIL 3, 2022


Operation Desert Storm was a turning point in modern Chinese military history. As military planners with the People's Liberation Army watched U.S. and allied forces make short work of the world's fourth-largest military (on paper), equipped with many of the same systems as the PLA, it became obvious that China's quantitatively superior but qualitatively lacking massed infantry would stand no chance against the combination of modern weaponry, C4ISR, and joint operations seen in Iraq. The result was new military concepts and over two decades of often-difficult reforms, which produced the modern, far more capable, "informationized" PLA of today.

Today, the PLA is no doubt closely observing its Russian contemporaries in Ukraine as they under-perform in multiple areas, from failing to take key targets or claim air supremacy to running low on fuel and supplies and possibly experiencing morale collapse, and surely taking away lessons that will shape its own future. Of note, Russia's experience appears to have confirmed many of China's recent assumptions behind its investments, such as the utility of unmanned aerial systems in high-intensity conflict, as well as the necessity for the PLA's 2015 reforms, which aim to fix many of the issues driving Russian failure that the PLA recognizes in itself.

Of the many issues that have contributed to Russia's physical battlefield woes in Ukraine, one of the most important has been the lack of effective joint or combined arms operations, widely considered essential to any effective modern fighting force. Russia's poor level of coordination between its various services and branches can only be generously described as incompetent. For example, it has repeatedly failed to provide effective air support to its ground forces or deconflict its air and air-defense forces to avoid friendly fire.

The PLA has long had its own serious issues with joint operations. Traditionally dominated by the Army, the PLA had little success developing a truly joint force until a series of sweeping reforms in 2015 that replaced the former Army-dominated system with a series of joint theater commands. The PLA is thus aware of its own shortcomings and taking steps to fix it, but likely remains far off from being able to conduct truly effective, seamless joint operations. Efforts to conduct joint exercises are becoming more common, but most senior PLA leaders are still relatively inexperienced with joint operations, and even new officers typically do not receive joint education below the corps level. Further, it remains to be seen how far these reforms will go or to what extent they will "stick;" indeed, one reason the PLA did not attempt these reforms until 2015 was because of strong institutional pushback from the Army, whose leaders wished to retain their dominant status.

[full article in link below]

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/04/what-lessons-china-taking-ukraine-war/363915/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on April 06, 2022, 02:36:30 AM
https://twitter.com/aliceysu/status/1511558828802068481

QuoteAs seen on Weibo: Shanghai residents go to their balconies to sing & protest lack of supplies. A drone appears: "Please comply w covid restrictions. Control your soul's desire for freedom. Do not open the window or sing."

Christ  :lol:  :(

Putin wishes he could pull that off.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on April 06, 2022, 02:41:50 AM
And over here people protested because they felt needing a Covid test to go to the pub was equivalent to living in a surveillance state.  :wacko:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on April 06, 2022, 02:49:03 AM
"Control your soul's desire for freedom. Do not sing" is a very lyrical kind of totalitarian phrase, followed by the bluntness of a sledgehammer.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on April 06, 2022, 03:04:38 AM
Very dystopian.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 06, 2022, 04:44:39 AM
Quote from: The Larch on April 06, 2022, 02:49:03 AM"Control your soul's desire for freedom. Do not sing" is a very lyrical kind of totalitarian phrase, followed by the bluntness of a sledgehammer.
I can only assume it sounds less terrifying/grim in Chinese.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 06, 2022, 10:01:13 AM
One mildly satisfying thing coming out of the Shanghai thing is the number of people saying that Fang Fang had a point (author of the Wuhan diaries, chronicling the impact of the lockdown in Wuhan), when they had previously denounced her as an anti-regime, anti-Chinese stooge of Western disinformation.

Not that it matters much in the big scheme of things, but there are a couple of folks I get personal satisfaction from knowing they're locked down.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 06, 2022, 01:39:29 PM
Bladerunner meets 1984.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 07, 2022, 12:34:48 AM
Shanghai is fucking up their covid management and it's circulating on social media. They've built massive facilities for quarantining folks. When they deliver food and provide blankets there's no organization, just a free for all - meaning there are people who are going hungry for days or are sleeping without blankets because they lost out in the frenzy.

That's following stories of people who've been quarantined for days in public washrooms and the like, because that's where they were when the lock-down order came down.

And Shanghai is supposed to be the most advanced, modern, civilized, and well organized Chinese city. Not a good look.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 07, 2022, 02:48:18 AM
That's crazy.
Just why is China keeping at this zero covid approach when everyone else has gotten to a stage of covid is now a flu?
They've got to be looking for an opportunity to smoothly wind down whilst making it seem it was all their idea.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 07, 2022, 04:42:59 AM
Quote from: Josquius on April 07, 2022, 02:48:18 AMJust why is China keeping at this zero covid approach when everyone else has gotten to a stage of covid is now a flu?
They've got to be looking for an opportunity to smoothly end down whilst making it seem it was all their idea.
Generously - China has messed up its vaccine programme and the elderly who are most at risk are even less vaccinated than in Hong Kong. So ending zero covid now would result in probably millions of deaths.

Less generously it gives the regime an excuse and mechanism to cut off China from the rest of the world without taking an ideological turns.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on April 07, 2022, 10:55:37 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 07, 2022, 12:34:48 AMShanghai is fucking up their covid management and it's circulating on social media. They've built massive facilities for quarantining folks. When they deliver food and provide blankets there's no organization, just a free for all - meaning there are people who are going hungry for days or are sleeping without blankets because they lost out in the frenzy.

That's following stories of people who've been quarantined for days in public washrooms and the like, because that's where they were when the lock-down order came down.

And Shanghai is supposed to be the most advanced, modern, civilized, and well organized Chinese city. Not a good look.

Squid Game irl
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 07, 2022, 01:44:38 PM
Quote from: The Larch on April 06, 2022, 02:49:03 AM"Control your soul's desire for freedom. Do not sing" is a very lyrical kind of totalitarian phrase, followed by the bluntness of a sledgehammer.

the delivery of the message by drone is the icing on the creepy Orwellian cake.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on April 07, 2022, 03:10:02 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 07, 2022, 01:44:38 PM
Quote from: The Larch on April 06, 2022, 02:49:03 AM"Control your soul's desire for freedom. Do not sing" is a very lyrical kind of totalitarian phrase, followed by the bluntness of a sledgehammer.

the delivery of the message by drone is the icing on the creepy Orwellian cake.

What would make it even more terrifying? The message being read in a robotic voice? Or in a soothing human one?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2022, 04:11:02 PM
Chirpy Japanese voice.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on April 07, 2022, 04:42:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2022, 04:11:02 PMChirpy Japanese voice.  :ph34r:

Cutesy anime girl style?  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2022, 04:43:48 PM
Quote from: The Larch on April 07, 2022, 04:42:14 PMCutesy anime girl style?  :lol:

I was thinking Bladerunner geisha/hostess style.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 07, 2022, 04:47:45 PM
Quote from: The Larch on April 07, 2022, 04:42:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2022, 04:11:02 PMChirpy Japanese voice.  :ph34r:

Cutesy anime girl style?  :lol:
Mono's writing the memo suggesting this right now.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 07, 2022, 04:47:53 PM
I think if I was locked in my apartment for an unknown amount of time, with limited access to food, and a drone flew by to tell me to stay indoors / now worry / comply - the type of voice and exact phrasing would change the flavour of dystopian sentiment, but not the intensity. It'd all suck, because the situation fundamentally just sucks.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on April 09, 2022, 03:06:13 PM
Looks like there's looting in Shanghai. Wonder how bad the crackdown will be.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 09, 2022, 04:04:59 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 09, 2022, 03:06:13 PMLooks like there's looting in Shanghai. Wonder how bad the crackdown will be.

Source?

But yeah, starving a city of 26 million is not going to go well I don't think.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on April 09, 2022, 04:51:39 PM
Was in my news feed, can't find the original one I read anymore, but here's the Dailymail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10702811/Shanghai-residents-revolt-Zero-Covid-lockdown-Videos-shows-mobs-looting-stores-urgent-food.html


And I guess looting was a loaded term, starving people are rightfully looking for food.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on April 09, 2022, 05:25:10 PM
This mega lockdown of Shanghai is puzzling for me. Is there like a vaccination program still ongoing? If not what's the long term plan? Regular lockdowns for a few decades until covid mutates itself to nonconsequential even for the un-vaccinated?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 09, 2022, 08:31:10 PM
The CCP is incompetent. Like the Russian army. Ensure compliance via coercion. Be surprised when complex realties don't comform to CCP face saving requirements, then double down. That's the plan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 09, 2022, 08:33:15 PM
It was Shenzhen earlier this year which is another enormous city, but this is going on longer and causing these logistical issues.

I think China's plan is still zero covid - so ongoing lockdowns as necessary, strict border controls etc. I don't think it's a plausible long term plan given the rest of the world (which I think has always been the issue with zero covid - once it escaped China). But if you're a totalitarian state that trade off is, I suspect, a feature not a bug.

I also think, practically, the Chinese vaccines are good - but they're not as good as other vaccines. China has almost no natural immunity because their zero covid policies have broadly worked. At the minute old people have not been vaccinated enough - I think it's around 50% and actually reduces as you go up the age scale (and risk).

Omicron is back to being about as lethal as covid 1 but it spreadsa lot more. So if there was an outbreak with Chinese vaccination rates there would be an awful lot of deaths. Even if China actually vaccinates everyone and gets the rate for the elderly up, there will still be in sheer numbers a lot of people who will likely die of covid because no vaccine's 100% - and when you're looking at China even a small percentage is going to be a huge number of people.

On a purely political level I don't know that the Chinese state has prepared people for that - or for anything but zero covid. My understanding is that there's been a sense that covid, far from being a crisis for the system, was seen as giving it great legitimacy. It took really strict measures but successfully stopped the disease (within China) and China has had very few deaths compared to many other countries. Any policy other than zero covid will change that (even though the vaccines are very good) - and I'm not sure the people are really aware of/prepared for that - but zero covid will mean issues like locking down a city of 26 million people with all the logistical challenges of keeping people fed if cases don't decline quickly enough, closing globally important industrial centres and the overall economic cost of keeping the rest of the world out of China. I don't think either route is easy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2022, 02:14:29 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 09, 2022, 08:33:15 PMAt the minute old people have not been vaccinated enough - I think it's around 50% and actually reduces as you go up the age scale (and risk).

This part baffles me.  I would think China would be the one country in the world that could compel 100% vaccination.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 10, 2022, 11:25:31 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2022, 02:14:29 AMThis part baffles me.  I would think China would be the one country in the world that could compel 100% vaccination.

1) The Chinese population - broadly speaking - does not have a high level of trust in "made in China" medicine, whatever the government may be saying.

2) The CCP went for positive inducement for vaccination ("get vaccinated and get 20 eggs!" and similar). While the CCP absolutely can (and does) discard public sentiment for various reasons at times, it is very conscious of maintaining public legitimacy. I guess in this case the CCP collectively judged that enforcing vaccination wasn't worth the cost. As well (2b), in an authoritarian society like China, people would absolutely find ways to get "vaccinated" status without actually being vaccinated if push came to shove. The Chinese are pretty good at circumventing the reach of their authoritarian state while appearing compliant. Forcing everyone to be vaccinated only for people to get sick because SinoVax and SinoPharm are ineffective and because some individuals and some local authorities collaborated to fake vaccination status, would be pretty embarrassing for the CCP (and thus undermine legitimacy).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on April 10, 2022, 01:41:19 PM
Damn.  I could have gotten 20 eggs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 19, 2022, 07:35:21 AM
On the latest lockdown - this is another reason I'm not sure we're out of supply chain worries yet, at least as long as China continues a zero covid policy:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQp-igdXEAI4XGS?format=jpg&name=small)

This lockdown is happening to Shanghai, but before this there was one of Shenzhen - I'm not sure what the impact would be if more than one Chinese region/city was under this type of lockdown. But I suspect the global economic impact would be pretty huge.

Separately I see that Weibo has now banned the first line of the Chinese national anthem ("Stand up! Those who refuse to be slaves!") because of how it's being used about Shanghai.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 19, 2022, 08:30:42 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 19, 2022, 07:35:21 AMOn the latest lockdown - this is another reason I'm not sure we're out of supply chain worries yet, at least as long as China continues a zero covid policy:

Shipping map outside of Shanghai:
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1516325398644236290/photo/1
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on April 19, 2022, 08:37:54 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 19, 2022, 08:30:42 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 19, 2022, 07:35:21 AMOn the latest lockdown - this is another reason I'm not sure we're out of supply chain worries yet, at least as long as China continues a zero covid policy:

Shipping map outside of Shanghai:
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1516325398644236290/photo/1

Jaysus.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on April 19, 2022, 08:47:57 AM
That seems less then ideal.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on April 19, 2022, 08:50:13 AM
Maybe that will reduce the insane yields of the Shanghai-Western US trade route & let some empty containers go somewhere else.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 19, 2022, 10:19:57 PM
Quote from: celedhring on April 06, 2022, 02:36:30 AMhttps://twitter.com/aliceysu/status/1511558828802068481

QuoteAs seen on Weibo: Shanghai residents go to their balconies to sing & protest lack of supplies. A drone appears: "Please comply w covid restrictions. Control your soul's desire for freedom. Do not open the window or sing."

Christ  :lol:  :(

Putin wishes he could pull that off.

It is stuff like this that makes me slightly terrified of the future.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on April 19, 2022, 10:27:38 PM
Don't worry too much. In the future, you'll be dead.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 20, 2022, 11:59:47 AM
So apparently China's population is set to decline this year, about a decade earlier than predicted.

To quote my wife "under Xi, anything is possible!"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 21, 2022, 02:46:20 AM
I wonder, are local authorities lying about population numbers as they lie about gdp?


In other news. Saw this video the other day on china's great green wall and its stupidity.
Sigh.
https://youtu.be/yu_qTrxTEEA
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 24, 2022, 08:35:24 AM
Shops being absolutely cleared in Beijing right now an hour or two after it was announced that a neighbouring rural district had needed mass testing. Fear presumably that Beijing may soon be in a Shanghai style lockdown.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 24, 2022, 10:55:51 AM
I wonder if we'll be able to get a good estimate of the economic impact from the Shanghai shutdown - and any Beijing shutdown if it happens.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 25, 2022, 10:26:01 AM
Shanghai stock market is apparently posting major drops, with some major stocks dropping signficantly.

Talking to a friend in Shanghai, the reasons he gives are a combination of the impact of China's Covid 0 policies, the US increasing their interest rates, and fear that anti-Russian sanctions will impact Chinese companies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 01, 2022, 11:36:09 PM
Street protests defying lock-downs and a lack of food in Shanghai: https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1520979322575548417?t=322S99YN2u9Ui0anJasDKQ&s=19

Beijing is apparently a ghost town right now.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 02, 2022, 08:37:03 AM
It doesn't appear that anti-Russian sanctions will have a huge impact on China because most Chinese companies seem to have decided to respect the sanctions rather than risking access to the US and Europe.

This crisis has brought out in sharp relief the fundamental contradictions between China's exterior economic and political/security policies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 03, 2022, 05:01:09 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 02, 2022, 08:37:03 AMThis crisis has brought out in sharp relief the fundamental contradictions between China's exterior economic and political/security policies.
I think there's something similr with the covid policies going on between China's economic policies/agenda and their continued commitment to zero covid in a world with endemic covid (but that helps support/buttress isolation/security).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 04, 2022, 10:59:34 PM
Wild rumours swirling on Chinese social media that Xi's been sidelined.

I rate it at 0.1% chance of being real, but still greater than zero.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on May 05, 2022, 12:38:07 AM
Who would be the one sidelining him, and why now?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 05, 2022, 06:29:38 AM
Possibly not the right threat - but not big enough news for its own - but South Korea's intelligence agency has joined the NATO cyber-defence group as a participating member (like Sweden or Austria). It's the first Asian state to join.

As you can imagine China's particularly annoyed about this, but I think it's really striking the way the invasion has pushed Pacific countries like Japan, South Korea and Australia to deepen their ties with NATO (and NATO states). They've all joined in providing stuff to Ukraine and in imposing sanctions, and now this.

I think it's a pretty good thing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 10, 2022, 01:10:55 AM
There volume of vague rumours coming out of China right now re: Xi continues to be high. Nothing super concrete, all of them potentially explainable, but still. They're not quite Bo Xilai vs Xi Jinping levels, but still at a noticeably higher than baseline level.

We'll see, I guess.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 10, 2022, 04:26:35 AM
Quote from: Jacob on May 10, 2022, 01:10:55 AMThere volume of vague rumours coming out of China right now re: Xi continues to be high. Nothing super concrete, all of them potentially explainable, but still. They're not quite Bo Xilai vs Xi Jinping levels, but still at a noticeably higher than baseline level.

We'll see, I guess.

Took me a minute it so to figure out that it wasn't about Xi being continuously high...

Not sure if good though, even with a replacement the CCP remains a threat to the free world. But with Xi out or curtailed the world might be lulled into complacency again re the dangers the CCP poses.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 10, 2022, 02:30:03 PM
The WHO have said China's zero covid policy is unsustainable -it's FT so paywalled but screenshot of section from journalist:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSaiW9uXsAAVVqg?format=png&name=small)

I wonder how much that is the source of elite dissatisfaction with Xi because it is clearly unsustainable, it's causing a lot of economic and social problems. It might help with isolation which is possibly why it's still so attractive to Xi but it feels impossible and counter-productive at this point.

But I've no idea how you get out of it once you're zero covid and the rest of the world is endemic.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on May 10, 2022, 02:40:07 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 10, 2022, 02:30:03 PMBut I've no idea how you get out of it once you're zero covid and the rest of the world is endemic.

Massive vaccination efforts.

Just googled - China reports 86% fully vaxed.  But then it's a question of the efficacy of the Chinese vaccines - if they aren't all that effective (in particular against the variants) it's be hard/impossible for Xi to admit it.

Or the 86% number could be bogus as well.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 10, 2022, 02:43:40 PM
Yeah and I think China has been even worse than Hong Kong (which had a huge spike in deaths with Omicron) at getting vaccines to the elderly. Vaccination levels are important but in the recent waves the key is how much you've vaccinated the vulnerable.

Although as you say it depends on effectiveness of their vaccines. From what I remember one was very good when used in other countries and one not so much.

I can't see an easy way out - I think New Zealand and Australia have probably faced similar challenges. I'm not sure how they've managed it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 10, 2022, 03:18:40 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 10, 2022, 02:30:03 PMThe WHO have said China's zero covid policy is unsustainable -it's FT so paywalled but screenshot of section from journalist:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSaiW9uXsAAVVqg?format=png&name=small)

I wonder how much that is the source of elite dissatisfaction with Xi because it is clearly unsustainable, it's causing a lot of economic and social problems. It might help with isolation which is possibly why it's still so attractive to Xi but it feels impossible and counter-productive at this point.

But I've no idea how you get out of it once you're zero covid and the rest of the world is endemic.

Hilariously, Chinese media is apparently reporting it exactly the opposite "the WHO is saying China's covid zero method is the best way forward!"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 11, 2022, 07:14:34 AM
Really helpful but slightly concerning thread from FT data reporter on China, vaccines and zero covid:
https://twitter.com/imandylin2/status/1524046064437043200?s=20&t=2TDRA-s0hVm51_YcEdHziw

Basically there isn't much of a vaccination drive, in fact vaccination numbers - especially among the elderly - are slack. In part this is because of the emphasis on zero covid and the pre-emptive lockdowns. Vaccination just doesn't seem to be the focus - it's not zero covid to buy time for vaccinations. For example the statement form the Politburo on covid strategy (chaired by Xi) which is 1,900 words long and was published on the front page of papers spent 10 words on vaccination. The rest was around testing, quarantine and movement control.

I suspect there's something of a political fight going on over zero covid in China where it's assumed a meaning beyond just a covid response policy?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 11, 2022, 09:05:04 AM
PRC screwed themselves on vaccines by opting for a "national" solution that turned out be second tier and using their propaganda machines to bad mouth the Western mRNA vaccines, as a result of a good chunk of the population doesn't trust any COVID vaccine. 

In hindsight the Party should have used its coercive machinery a year or so ago to force mass vaccination using the Western model vaccines.  Sadly, all the brutal authoritarianism and propaganda in the world can't turn back time.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 12, 2022, 04:11:10 AM
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hong-kong-police-arrest-catholic-cardinal-alleged-collusion-with-foreign-forces-2022-05-11/

QuoteHong Kong police bail Catholic cardinal arrested on national security charge

HONG KONG, May 11 (Reuters) - Cardinal Joseph Zen, one of the most senior Catholic clerics in Asia, and three others who helped run a now-disbanded Hong Kong fund for protesters were arrested on charges of "collusion with foreign forces," and later released on bail.

Zen, a 90-year-old former bishop of Hong Kong, was questioned for several hours on Wednesday at the Chai Wan Police Station close to his church residence, before being released on police bail. The silver-haired Zen, wearing a white clerical collar, left without making any comment to the media.

Local police said in a statement that the national security department of the police force had arrested two men and two women, ranging from 45 to 90 years old for "collusion with foreign forces" on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Police said they were suspected of asking for foreign sanctions. All were released on bail with their passports confiscated under the national security law, police said.

A legal source familiar with the matter had earlier told Reuters that five people had been arrested in connection with the case: Zen; senior barrister Margaret Ng, 74; activist and pop singer Denise Ho; former lawmaker Cyd Ho; and former academic Hui Po-keung.

Zen has long been an advocate of democratic causes in Hong Kong and mainland China, and has spoken out against China's growing authoritarianism under President Xi Jinping, including a Beijing-imposed national security law, and the persecution of some Roman Catholics in China.

Hui had been arrested at the airport on Tuesday night, according to media reports, while Cyd Ho was already in prison over a separate case.

The five were trustees of the "612 Humanitarian Relief Fund" which helped protesters who had been arrested during pro-democracy, anti-China protests in 2019 to help pay their legal and medical fees.

VATICAN CONCERNED

Hong Kong has long been one of the most important Catholic beachheads in Asia, home to an extensive network of aid agencies, scholars and missions that have supported Catholics in mainland China and elsewhere.

Beijing imposed the sweeping national security law in June 2020 that punishes terrorism, collusion with foreign forces, subversion and secession with possible life imprisonment.

The Vatican said on Wednesday it had learned of the arrest of Zen in Hong Kong "with concern" and was following developments "with extreme attention".

Reuters was not able to immediately reach the others for comment. The Hong Kong Catholic Diocese gave no immediate comment.

The "612 Humanitarian Relief Fund" was scrapped last year after the disbandment of a company that had helped receive donations through a bank account.

The arrests come after police said last September that they had begun investigating the fund for alleged violations of the national security law.

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre called on China and Hong Kong authorities to cease targeting Hong Kong advocates and to immediately release those "unjustly detained and charged," including Zen.

"All I can tell you is that I think we're increasingly troubled by steps in Hong Kong to pressure and eliminate civil society," U.S. Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell told a separate event in Washington when asked about the arrests.

Hui, an associate cultural studies professor at Lingnan University, had once taught exiled democracy activist Nathan Law.

"If you want to punish someone, you can always find an excuse," Law wrote on his Facebook page in response to Hui's arrest.

Critics, including the United States, say the security law erodes the freedoms promised by China under a "one country, two systems" arrangement when Hong Kong was returned from British to Chinese rule in 1997.

Hong Kong authorities, however, say the law has brought stability to the city after the 2019 mass demonstrations.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on May 12, 2022, 05:41:29 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 11, 2022, 07:14:34 AMReally helpful but slightly concerning thread from FT data reporter on China, vaccines and zero covid:
https://twitter.com/imandylin2/status/1524046064437043200?s=20&t=2TDRA-s0hVm51_YcEdHziw

Basically there isn't much of a vaccination drive, in fact vaccination numbers - especially among the elderly - are slack. In part this is because of the emphasis on zero covid and the pre-emptive lockdowns. Vaccination just doesn't seem to be the focus - it's not zero covid to buy time for vaccinations. For example the statement form the Politburo on covid strategy (chaired by Xi) which is 1,900 words long and was published on the front page of papers spent 10 words on vaccination. The rest was around testing, quarantine and movement control.

I suspect there's something of a political fight going on over zero covid in China where it's assumed a meaning beyond just a covid response policy?

Seems to me that the current policy is Xi's and since Xi can't be wrong then the current policy will be maintained at all costs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on May 12, 2022, 10:52:10 AM
Seems an effective autocrat needs some gaslighting ability so he can change course when something isn't working.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 12, 2022, 10:55:34 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 11, 2022, 09:05:04 AMIn hindsight the Party should have used its coercive machinery a year or so ago to force mass vaccination using the Western model vaccines.

You realize that, in the Xi world, there was absolutely zero chance of this ever happening.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on May 12, 2022, 11:55:40 AM
Can't he say that the Chinese vaccines themselves and the propaganda against Western vaccines was a plot by the corrupt Chinese vaccine developers?  Sure, you'll have to shoot a dozen of them or two, but surely that's more palatable than the economically damaging strategy with no endgame?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 12, 2022, 12:02:08 PM
China under Xi seems to be massively into the our-propaganda-spin-is-mightier-than-reality way of coping. It doesn't bode well for their future.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 12, 2022, 02:38:13 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 12, 2022, 12:02:08 PMChina under Xi seems to be massively into the our-propaganda-spin-is-mightier-than-reality way of coping. It doesn't bode well for their future.

If it means China eliminates itself as a threat, ideally without war, I'm sure we can only encourage them
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 12, 2022, 03:50:47 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 12, 2022, 02:38:13 PMIf it means China eliminates itself as a threat, ideally without war, I'm sure we can only encourage them

Yeah I suppose, though it also increases the odds of a miscalculation leading to war, Putin style.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 12, 2022, 04:07:43 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 12, 2022, 03:50:47 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on May 12, 2022, 02:38:13 PMIf it means China eliminates itself as a threat, ideally without war, I'm sure we can only encourage them

Yeah I suppose, though it also increases the odds of a miscalculation leading to war, Putin style.

true, but that goes too if china becomes stronger
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on May 15, 2022, 01:09:05 AM
Xi has a brain aneurism, at least according to the Dailymail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10816327/Chinas-leader-Xi-Jinping-suffering-brain-aneurysm-snub-new-medicine-reports-claim.html
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 15, 2022, 01:19:11 AM
My wife brought it up as well, but I'm going to wait until I hear it from somewhere other than the Daily Mail.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on May 15, 2022, 01:56:04 AM
He wants to treat brain aneurism with traditional medicine?  I guess he really cares a lot about the wellbeing of his country.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on May 15, 2022, 01:59:13 AM
Or he's getting all the modern treatment while putting this out for PR.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on May 15, 2022, 02:29:31 AM
Or afraid of going under the knife. Convenient way to assassinate someone.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 15, 2022, 07:11:30 AM
Yeah. There may be something to it but that's just one of those articles reporting what's being said on social media/blogs.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 15, 2022, 09:44:05 AM
At least it wasn't a plane crash.  Or does the Party not do that anymore?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 15, 2022, 11:04:11 AM
Wouldn't it just put a shine on 2022 if both Xi and Putin exited this year?

Not that I expect any replacements to be better, but it's still pleasant on a personal level.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 15, 2022, 11:34:11 AM
Quote from: Jacob on May 15, 2022, 11:04:11 AMWouldn't it just put a shine on 2022 if both Xi and Putin exited this year?

Not that I expect any replacements to be better, but it's still pleasant on a personal level.

The replacements won't be better. But it's that one step closer to the replacements to the replacements to the replacements who might be.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 15, 2022, 11:41:35 AM
Quote from: Josquius on May 15, 2022, 11:34:11 AMThe replacements won't be better. But it's that one step closer to the replacements to the replacements to the replacements who might be.

Xi's replacement could be better.  Compare the trend lines pre-Xi and now.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on May 15, 2022, 11:51:19 AM
I think Xi's replacement could be better, my understanding is that China used to have an effective pipeline for leadership by authoritarian country standards.  It's hard to tell who the Putin's replacement is even going to be, the people you would think of as Putin replacements by definition don't stick around as Putin's replacements.

Regardless of the quality of replacement, the good thing is that authoritarians need time to establish themselves.  Starting a war in Ukraine is not something you do on your second year on the job, you need to thoroughly cow the elite into submission personally.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 15, 2022, 11:56:07 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 15, 2022, 11:41:35 AMXi's replacement could be better.  Compare the trend lines pre-Xi and now.

One can hope. But it's an open question whether Xi's direction is an aberration or indicative of a new direction.

And - as per CdM's point of view - a softer China could just lull us into a fall sense of security, allowing Xi 2.0 (who might be less incompetent) to do more damage when he comes around.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 15, 2022, 12:39:03 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 15, 2022, 11:41:35 AM
Quote from: Josquius on May 15, 2022, 11:34:11 AMThe replacements won't be better. But it's that one step closer to the replacements to the replacements to the replacements who might be.

Xi's replacement could be better.  Compare the trend lines pre-Xi and now.

That's true. But I get the impression Xi has thoroughly remade the party along his lines and got rid of any of the old generation from when China seemed to be going in a positive direction.

Those who actually know about Chinese politics please do correct me.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 15, 2022, 12:56:01 PM
My read is China was never going in a positive direction and that Xi isn't a break or an aberration but a clear choice by the party of the direction they wanted to go. After all, the main alternative was Bo Xilai.

Edit: But obvs - absolutely not knowing much.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 15, 2022, 02:56:55 PM
Quote from: Josquius on May 15, 2022, 12:39:03 PMThat's true. But I get the impression Xi has thoroughly remade the party along his lines and got rid of any of the old generation from when China seemed to be going in a positive direction.

Those who actually know about Chinese politics please do correct me.

It'll take more than what Xi did to get rid of countervailing forces in China, and within the party. The Chinese in general are very good at colouring within the lines. Tens of millions of Chinese are taking the piss out of (and critiquing) Xi and the CCP in social medial in various ways using slang, code, and metaphors. The sentiment may not make a substantial difference most of the time, but it's there.

Similarly, China and the party is big enough that cliques exist. Li Keqiang is the premier (though slated to be replaced) is from a different faction and occasionally says (and does) things to undermine Xi. Yes Xi has purged a number of potential enemies (corruption, don't you know), but most folks in the party know how to make the right noises, keep their heads low, and bide their time.

Basically, Xi has only started the process of centralizing and personalizing his power that Putin has carried out for decades, and the Chinese system has and had way more safeguards and structural obstacles in the way. That Xi wants to be Mao (or Putin) is pretty clear, but he's got longer to go.

So whatever streams existed within the party prior to Xi's ascent are still there, I expect.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 15, 2022, 03:05:50 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 15, 2022, 12:56:01 PMMy read is China was never going in a positive direction and that Xi isn't a break or an aberration but a clear choice by the party of the direction they wanted to go. After all, the main alternative was Bo Xilai.

Edit: But obvs - absolutely not knowing much.

I think the June 4th movement, the HK pro-democracy movement, and the phases of liberalization in thought and economics represented movement in a positive direction. But until China accepts pluralism, any movement in a positive direction can be washed away in an instant.

The question, of course, is also what is meant by "a positive direction". Positive for the world economy and standards of living? Positive for the Chinese people to not be oppressed? Positive for non-Han populations inside China to not be forcefully assimilated? Positive for China's neighbours?

But yeah, given the choice of what Bo Xilai promised and what Xi Jinping delivered neither can be seen as movement in a positive direction, so that was a choice between two bad directions. Hu Jintao was, comparatively, less malign IMO.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 15, 2022, 03:25:05 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 15, 2022, 03:05:50 PMI think the June 4th movement, the HK pro-democracy movement, and the phases of liberalization in thought and economics represented movement in a positive direction. But until China accepts pluralism, any movement in a positive direction can be washed away in an instant.
Fair points. I was not meaning wider Chinese society never going in a positive direction - rather the state.

QuoteThe question, of course, is also what is meant by "a positive direction". Positive for the world economy and standards of living? Positive for the Chinese people to not be oppressed? Positive for non-Han populations inside China to not be forcefully assimilated? Positive for China's neighbours?
Quite. I still think the vast majority of the legitimacy the PRC has is because of their role (mostly mythologised) in national liberation, then subsequently (more real) economic growth transforming the lives of hundreds of millions of Chinese and lately Chinese assertiveness - and the initial success of covid zero in China pre-vaccines.

Those are big things that for many was, I imagine, enough of a positive direction for support or quiescence. But China was never going to move to anything that remotely challenged or threatened the supremacy of the party. Instead, as China grows richer and more powerful, the role of the party would probably have to grow. For example, it would not want to be at the behest of oligarchs or, say, technocrats who are not properly in line with the party.

As long as the party-state is the model I don't see China deviating from that. And, for what it's worth, I think Soviet history is incredibly contingent on Gorbachev's failures as a leader - he was too idealistic, too naive and not very competent. So it's less whether China will eventually appoint a Gorbachev who will open them up, but whether they will appoint a bad leader and the party have so little left to remove them before it all falls apart. I'm not optimistic on that either.

QuoteBut yeah, given the choice of what Bo Xilai promised and what Xi Jinping delivered neither can be seen as movement in a positive direction, so that was a choice between two bad directions. Hu Jintao was, comparatively, less malign IMO.
I agree on Hu. What I'm unsure of is how much is that because the party wanted that less malign model - or because they didn't feel in a position to assert a more forceful position as they were leaving the leadership generations at least partialy mapped by Deng.

My instinct is that it's becuase China wasn't in a position to take the sort of direction Bo and Xi would - both internationally, but also just in terms of tech and research. I think the direction reflects the party leadership's sense of China's strength rather than actually being a shift. But again that is basically just a guess and I could be totally wrong.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 15, 2022, 04:26:46 PM
Xi has always seemed to me to be reaching for things that the CCP's post-Mao leadership has instinctively avoided: supreme power vested in one man who cannot be held accountable because he makes himself president-for-life; an aggressive foreign policy that seeks to overturn the current world order that has brought China so much prosperity (maybe giving China hegemonic power, but maybe just breaking everything that allows China to succeed); spending money on arms rather than infrastructure; and a cult of personality.

I don't think that the "contented China" of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao is still in the cards, as the Chinese populace has gotten used to a foreign policy of belligerent arrogance and assertiveness, but I think that it can go back to being a country whose actions (not words) support a world order that doesn't let China claim to be top dog, but does allow China to prosper.

China is today's Imperial Germany and Xi is today's Kaiser Wilhelm II.  The world can successfully deal either of those, but not both together.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 15, 2022, 09:45:55 PM
Quote from: grumbler on May 15, 2022, 04:26:46 PMXi has always seemed to me to be reaching for things that the CCP's post-Mao leadership has instinctively avoided: supreme power vested in one man who cannot be held accountable because he makes himself president-for-life; an aggressive foreign policy that seeks to overturn the current world order that has brought China so much prosperity (maybe giving China hegemonic power, but maybe just breaking everything that allows China to succeed); spending money on arms rather than infrastructure; and a cult of personality.

I don't think that the "contented China" of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao is still in the cards, as the Chinese populace has gotten used to a foreign policy of belligerent arrogance and assertiveness, but I think that it can go back to being a country whose actions (not words) support a world order that doesn't let China claim to be top dog, but does allow China to prosper.

China is today's Imperial Germany and Xi is today's Kaiser Wilhelm II.  The world can successfully deal either of those, but not both together.

Doesn't help when they're going through their pop cultural equivalent of the over-the-top, jingoistic Reagan-era action themes of the 1980s with their "Wolf Warrior" foreign policy.  "Rambo with Chinese characteristics."  Ugh.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 15, 2022, 10:55:41 PM
Some recent Chinese economy stats:

QuoteApril data out of China as cities locked down to maintain Covid Zero. All figures are yoy:

Retail sales -11.1%
Industrial output -2.9%
Manufacturing output -4.6%
Electricity output -4.3%
Crude steel output -5.2%
Apparent oil demand -6.7%
YTD home sales -32%

The urban jobless rate rose to 6.1% as well, which is high for China I believe.

The numbers are from Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-16/china-s-economy-contracts-sharply-as-covid-zero-curbs-output?srnd=premium) (I think - don't have a subscription).

It would suck for the Chinese economy if the housing bubble burst - though maybe it'll encourage the tang ping to re-engage in the economy as they might be able to afford places to live.

A high urban jobless rate probably isn't that good for regime stability either.

Anyways, things aren't looking super hot in China right now and, whatever the structural weaknesses may be there and whatever has happened internationally the Covid Zero lockdowns are having a massive impact.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 16, 2022, 11:07:33 PM
The Chinese gov't has completely lost the plot.

Here they are taking strong action to contain Covid in Beijing... spraying who knows what all over the city en masse: https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1526324712267083776?t=sbdtVkBVfDcTE2u3rXgsHA&s=19
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on May 17, 2022, 05:58:52 AM
Quote from: Jacob on May 16, 2022, 11:07:33 PMThe Chinese gov't has completely lost the plot.

Here they are taking strong action to contain Covid in Beijing... spraying who knows what all over the city en masse: https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1526324712267083776?t=sbdtVkBVfDcTE2u3rXgsHA&s=19 

It's not unusual for the Chinese government to do something for the sake of being seen doing something.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 17, 2022, 09:54:17 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 17, 2022, 05:58:52 AMIt's not unusual for the Chinese government to do something for the sake of being seen doing something.

Very very true.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on May 17, 2022, 04:43:48 PM
I thought the Chinese housing bubble had already burst not too long ago?

Isn't that what the evergrande thing was about?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 17, 2022, 05:13:07 PM
Quote from: Josquius on May 17, 2022, 04:43:48 PMI thought the Chinese housing bubble had already burst not too long ago?

Isn't that what the evergrande thing was about?

It didn't lead to a massive drop in property prices, so I don't think it counts as burst.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on May 17, 2022, 05:48:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 16, 2022, 11:07:33 PMThe Chinese gov't has completely lost the plot.

Here they are taking strong action to contain Covid in Beijing... spraying who knows what all over the city en masse: https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1526324712267083776?t=sbdtVkBVfDcTE2u3rXgsHA&s=19
Well, at least the people of China can lick the streets without fear of getting Covid.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 17, 2022, 11:35:59 PM
The number of cars sold in Shanghai in April 2022: 0

That's significantly below normal for a city of 26 million.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 18, 2022, 06:44:39 AM
Quote from: Jacob on May 17, 2022, 11:35:59 PMThe number of cars sold in Shanghai in April 2022: 0

That's significantly below normal for a city of 26 million.

Only the Chinese could pull that kind of stat off.


Oh, China...

(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.flipada.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F11%2Ffoto-6-18.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)

You're capable of such beautiful dreams and such horrible nightmares.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on May 20, 2022, 03:47:06 PM
Interesting video - obviously with a German focus - from DW on research and academic links between European universities and China's defence research:
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1527246861794299904?s=20&t=NOhbR1lSIwVeb3HLrDoX1Q

I'm sure there'll be more reporting forthcoming on this as it looks like the start of a project.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 23, 2022, 08:46:17 AM
There have been hints of this since Biden took office, but the US has now definitively dropped the strategic ambiguity policy over Taiwan, and made a clear statement that the US will help defend Taiwan against an attack by the PRC.  Yet another consequence of the Ukraine affair.

The PRC foreign ministry response was interesting - it focused directly on the concern of encouraging and fomenting independence and raised the One China policy and the joint communiques as a governing statement of policy that should control.  So although harsh in tone for a diplomatic communication, the message is clear that at least at present, the PRC intends to stand by the traditional policy and not seek resolution by force, provided Taiwan does not seek a declaration of indepedence.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on May 23, 2022, 10:28:18 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html

Is this a considered change in tone, or just Biden saying out loud (again) something everyone knew to be true but for diplomatic reasons has always been careful to not say out loud?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 23, 2022, 10:39:18 AM
Quote from: Berkut on May 23, 2022, 10:28:18 AMhttps://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html

Is this a considered change in tone, or just Biden saying out loud (again) something everyone knew to be true but for diplomatic reasons has always been careful to not say out loud?

I dunno, but I'll take it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 23, 2022, 10:39:53 AM
My understanding was that the policy was that the US was committed to supplying Taiwan with the means of resistance* but maintained ambiguity about whether the US would commit its own forces to oppose a PRC invasion.  There were hints of a change in policy at the beginning of the Trump admin, but that was chalked up to Trump being Trump.  There were additional hints earlier from Biden, but that was chalked up to Biden's speech issues.  AFAIK this the first clearly official and authorized statement of policy stating that the US "would" use its military forces to intervene.  As such, it seems to be a real change in the policy.  It still leaves open the level and nature of the commitment.


*The substance of this pledge can be questioned as the US does not always make available what Taiwan requests.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 24, 2022, 01:08:05 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 23, 2022, 10:39:18 AM
Quote from: Berkut on May 23, 2022, 10:28:18 AMhttps://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html

Is this a considered change in tone, or just Biden saying out loud (again) something everyone knew to be true but for diplomatic reasons has always been careful to not say out loud?

I dunno, but I'll take it.


Well, let's see...from being a player at Potsdam to having its UN Security Council seat taken away and given to one of the most obstructionist regimes in the UN, to reinventing itself from a staid dictatorship to one the world's driving economies, with a handful of diplomatic relations and constantly being undersold with commitments from the US in order to not ruffle any mainland feathers and their bullshit sensitivities, I'd say, yeah...it's time to say the quiet part out loud when it comes to Taiwan. 

There's no more room in the Southeast Pacific security picture for "strategic ambiguity."  Ambiguity leads to unintentional escalation, particularly by a China with a party-driven military engaged in an arms race with no history or training in the concept of brinksmanship.

LIBERATE WEST TAIWAN
DOWN WITH POOH
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on May 24, 2022, 02:04:24 PM
Long article by the BBC about Chinese treatment of the Uyghurs, based on a recent leak of data from the Chinese authorities:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/85qihtvw6e/the-faces-from-chinas-uyghur-detention-camps
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 25, 2022, 11:43:33 PM
Quote from: Syt on May 24, 2022, 02:04:24 PMLong article by the BBC about Chinese treatment of the Uyghurs, based on a recent leak of data from the Chinese authorities:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/85qihtvw6e/the-faces-from-chinas-uyghur-detention-camps

It's pretty fucking awful.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 25, 2022, 11:47:18 PM
Beijing students protesting against excessive lockdown restrictions: https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1529622640675135491?t=fkLA_SITy6npNkV47aYnoQ&s=19
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 26, 2022, 04:57:02 PM
Apparently university students in Tianjin University are protesting too.

As one commenter said "33 years ago students were protesting for freedom and political rights, now they're just protesting for the right to go home."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 04, 2022, 11:42:30 AM
Heading to the Statue of Liberty at UBC with the family shortly, to light some candles.

In the meantime, here's an instagram account collecting pictures and accounts from May 33rd, 1989: Northern Square. (https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.instagram.com/northern_square/&sa=D&source=hangouts&ust=1654447223948000&usg=AOvVaw2qtPYWH_aqXxq609FuvuUW)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 18, 2022, 02:48:51 PM
From the Department of Irony: After the Shanghai lockdown the PRC has banned "the Internationale" as being subversive.

So, for example, at this moment, a video of a man driving by Tiananmen Square while playing "the Internationale" on his car stereo is an anti-government statement.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 18, 2022, 02:53:04 PM
Chalk that one up for the China no longer Marxist side.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on June 18, 2022, 03:23:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 18, 2022, 02:48:51 PMFrom the Department of Irony: After the Shanghai lockdown the PRC has banned "the Internationale" as being subversive.

So, for example, at this moment, a video of a man driving by Tiananmen Square while playing "the Internationale" on his car stereo is an anti-government statement.

What? On what rationale?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on June 18, 2022, 03:24:31 PM
Quote from: Josquius on June 18, 2022, 02:53:04 PMChalk that one up for the China no longer Marxist side.

I doubt anyone still considered them Marxist.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 18, 2022, 03:38:03 PM
Quote from: The Larch on June 18, 2022, 03:24:31 PM
Quote from: Josquius on June 18, 2022, 02:53:04 PMChalk that one up for the China no longer Marxist side.

I doubt anyone still considered them Marxist.

I have seen it argued their current ultra capitalist/fascist setup is all part of putting Marxism into action and making sure the necessary stage of capitalism hits China to build up the economy needed for socialism to take hold.

Which imo is just wishful thinking and denialism from marxists.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on June 18, 2022, 03:39:57 PM
Quote from: Josquius on June 18, 2022, 03:38:03 PM
Quote from: The Larch on June 18, 2022, 03:24:31 PM
Quote from: Josquius on June 18, 2022, 02:53:04 PMChalk that one up for the China no longer Marxist side.

I doubt anyone still considered them Marxist.

I have seen it argued their current ultra capitalist/fascist setup is all part of putting Marxism into action and making sure the necessary stage of capitalism hits China to build up the economy needed for socialism to take hold.

Which imo is just wishful thinking and denialism from marxists.

Austounding levels of copium displayed there.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 18, 2022, 04:37:44 PM
I think they're still Marxist-Leninist. It's a vanguard party state and the party has the ultimate say over the economy, which they are using. And I think it shapes what they say and how party leaders think. I'm not sure it's cope for me because I'm fairly anti-tankie and think Marxism-Leninism is bad.

I'm not sure I'd say it's ultra-capitalist because I don't think there's any question that the capitalists don't have the power. I can't think of another ultra-capitalist state that has more or less disappeared it's richest man for what seem to be party/political reasons.

Edit: For example I think the state basically controls the 'commanding heights' of the economy and will continue to do so, but they may shift over time to also include more tech and hard research areas. I think the whole approach and attitude is shaped by a more Marxist economically determinist reading of the world (with Chinese nationalism), than simply being about race or 'action'/war in the way fascism was. They are not talking about unleashing market forces for the benefit of market players - it might be glorious and you might now be let into the party but it's for the benefit of China as determined by the party. Similarly they're not bigging up the sanctity of property rights which is typically the core of an ultra-capitalist dictatorship - the re-assertion and protection through the state of private property.

I know there's often a desperate desire to see left-wing dictatorships as somehow 'right-wing' but I think that's all it is. And I don't tink it holds up with a state built by Deng, especially as it's going into a cycle of asserting even more party-state control.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on June 18, 2022, 05:00:13 PM
Quote from: The Larch on June 18, 2022, 03:39:57 PMAustounding levels of opium displayed there.

this is more in character for china
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 19, 2022, 11:13:26 AM
Quote from: The Larch on June 18, 2022, 03:23:56 PMWhat? On what rationale?

People in Shanghai played it from their balconies to protest the draconian lockdown measures. The Chinese lines about slaves arising and starvation and such were seen as apt.

And since the song was used to criticize the regime, it was banned.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 04, 2022, 05:47:05 PM
Lots of questions about this story of stolen data of 1 billion people from Shanghai police database (via WSJ reporter) - but wow  :ph34r:
https://twitter.com/_karenhao/status/1543949945614393344?s=21&t=-5voB09gEA3eLESE1j5axQ
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 04, 2022, 06:25:49 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 04, 2022, 05:47:05 PMLots of questions about this story of stolen data of 1 billion people from Shanghai police database (via WSJ reporter) - but wow  :ph34r:
https://twitter.com/_karenhao/status/1543949945614393344?s=21&t=-5voB09gEA3eLESE1j5axQ

That's wild.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on July 08, 2022, 11:48:23 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on June 18, 2022, 04:37:44 PMI think they're still Marxist-Leninist. It's a vanguard party state and the party has the ultimate say over the economy, which they are using. And I think it shapes what they say and how party leaders think. I'm not sure it's cope for me because I'm fairly anti-tankie and think Marxism-Leninism is bad.

China lost some billionaires over the last year but still has over 600 (#2 after USA).  I don't think a country can have 600+ billionaires and still pass itself off as Marxist-Leninist.

Yes there are a single party state.  But single party states are hardly exclusive to Marxist regimes.  The same is true for dictatorial states that maintain political control over key economic sectors.  If anything, the Chinese approach is more akin to 20th century fascist-corporatist regimes than classic Marxist ones.

The closest comparison to the current Chinese development model is probably postwar Japan.  Postwar Japan was technically a multi-party democracy, but in practice a single party dominated the state, with different factions bargaining for pre-eminence in a manner not all that different from the post-Deng operation of the Communist Party before Xi.  The PRC did not have the legacy of the keiritsu (or the Korean chaebol) and that role was assumed to some degree by state enterprises under the control of bureaucrat-dynasts.   But the SOEs are paralleled by powerful privately owned industrial groups that have real autonomy of action in the economic sphere.  I think it stretches the terminology too far to keep the Marxist-Leninist label on this system.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 10, 2022, 06:29:42 AM
Haven't read the article (because it's in German and there's no link) and I don't mean to pick on Germany - but selling engines for Chinese warships seems sub-optimal :bleeding:
https://twitter.com/hmtillack/status/1546025493559902208?s=20&t=WY1rQ9pFWtz4YJBnPcadOQ

No doubt the Greens are good on this but everyone less so :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on July 11, 2022, 07:05:02 AM
Chinese banks in Henan province froze accounts since April leading to protests and subsequent crackdown of said protests.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-crushes-mass-protest-by-bank-depositors-demanding-their-life-savings-back/ar-AAZqmng?li=AAggNb9
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 11, 2022, 01:11:47 PM
Looks like the bank run is spreading somewhat. As I understand it, it's mostly smaller local type banks that are being affected. Then again, if you had your money in a bigger bank and saw your neighbour lose everything you might be tempted to pull out your money just to be safe.

Also as I understand it, many Chinese banks are heavily involved in construction and real estate so this may be a knock-on effect of some of the defaults or near defaults we've been hearing about.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on July 11, 2022, 01:24:54 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on July 10, 2022, 06:29:42 AMHaven't read the article (because it's in German and there's no link) and I don't mean to pick on Germany - but selling engines for Chinese warships seems sub-optimal :bleeding:
https://twitter.com/hmtillack/status/1546025493559902208?s=20&t=WY1rQ9pFWtz4YJBnPcadOQ

No doubt the Greens are good on this but everyone less so :(
The company in question is owned by Rolls-Royce.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on July 11, 2022, 01:45:28 PM
Which is owned by BMW.

Edit: Oh no - apologies you're quite right. The defence business is separate and still listed here and should be blocked from doing any defence business with China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on July 11, 2022, 03:29:43 PM
Quote from: The Larch on June 18, 2022, 03:24:31 PM
Quote from: Josquius on June 18, 2022, 02:53:04 PMChalk that one up for the China no longer Marxist side.

I doubt anyone still considered them Marxist.

Marxism is unworkable anarchist bullshit anyway. Withering away of the state  :lol:

Yeah right. The dictatorship of the proletariat party has never even approached 1% of state withering.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 14, 2022, 02:09:53 PM
Read this thread where somebody named Elbridge Colby argues there's a high chance of China invading Taiwan in the not too distant future:
https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1547256901213343744

I'm curious what people think of that - and even more so, what do we think are likely scenarios if China does pull the trigger.

One first big question is whether the US (& other allies) will intervene.

One argument in favour of intervention which I'd not considered previously is Taiwan's microprocessor industry. Losing it - especially losing it to China - would be a big blow to the West and the US's position of economic and military power.

If the US does intervene, another question I've seen is raised is whether it'd be able to so. It's not something I'd considered previously - I'd just assumed it would - but maybe some of you folks know better. Is American positioning and procurement in a state that it's more of an open question whether it could successfully defend Taiwan? Or are things fine there?

The other question I have is if we have any sense of scale of the economic damage - to China, to the US, and to the West - if there's an actual war? The scope of possible repercussions and knock-on effects are hard to get a handle on for me right now, so I'm curious if any of you have thoughts?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on July 14, 2022, 02:19:41 PM
China has been undergoing a military build-up over the last several years for sure.

But the PLA hasn't been involved in any kind of meaningful military action since 1979 against Vietnam.  As we have seen from Russia you don't quite know what your military is capable of until you actually use it.  No PLA soldier or general has any experience in combat by now.

Any conquest of Taiwan would also involve an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Straight - one of the most difficult types of assaults to make.

And the West's economic involvement in Taiwan is huge - it vastly outweighs our economic ties to Ukraine.  Semiconductors is a big part of it, but not the only part.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on July 14, 2022, 02:24:10 PM
Someone I know has sold off his business interests in Taiwan because of a concern about an invasion in the not to distant future.  His concern is that the political imperative for the US to defend Taiwan may be lessoning while there is a large incentive for China to take out the West's access to chip production before the West develops its own capacity.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on July 14, 2022, 02:26:35 PM
Grumbler had a few good posts about the feasibility (or lack there of) of China pulling off a amphibious assault recently. Hopefully he'll chime in again.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 14, 2022, 02:34:13 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on July 14, 2022, 02:24:10 PMSomeone I know has sold off his business interests in Taiwan because of a concern about an invasion in the not to distant future.  His concern is that the political imperative for the US to defend Taiwan may be lessoning while there is a large incentive for China to take out the West's access to chip production before the West develops its own capacity.

What's the argument that the political incentive is lessening for the US?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on July 14, 2022, 03:15:39 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 14, 2022, 02:34:13 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on July 14, 2022, 02:24:10 PMSomeone I know has sold off his business interests in Taiwan because of a concern about an invasion in the not to distant future.  His concern is that the political imperative for the US to defend Taiwan may be lessoning while there is a large incentive for China to take out the West's access to chip production before the West develops its own capacity.

What's the argument that the political incentive is lessening for the US?


His concern is not that objectively it should be less, but rather the unpredictable nature of American politics - who knows what they will stand for or defend after each election cycle?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on July 14, 2022, 06:26:19 PM
On the question of China invading Taiwan, a big factor is in how they do it...

1. If they go in assuming we might intervene, and decided that that almost obligates a pre-emptive attack on any of our assets in the region (CVNs, Okinawa, etc.) that would make an intervention possible.  That, of course, makes intervention by us inevitable.  If a CVN is attacked/sunk and Kadena AFB is blown to crap, and we do nothing...then the US's strategic influence in the world is pretty dead.

2. If they play it all coy, and deliberately avoid anything that looks like targeting or involving our forces in the region, "just moving our troops into our province, nothing to see here".  Of course this makes the invasion that much harder, but a much stronger pretext in the international community to say "step off, this is an internal matter", and  pretend that that position is fully legitimate.  And try to play any US intervention as an attack on China (they could even bluster nuclear armageddon Russian-style).

I also have to wonder, if prior to Putin's airborne gambit on Kiev, some PLA generals might have been thinking "if we just dropped some paratroops on Taipei, maybe those decadent capitalists won't fight back and will fold inside a week"...and now to have to strongly reconsider that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 01:49:41 AM
The US has to intervene in any invasion of Taiwan.
Even ignoring morality, the country's reputation, geopolitics, etc... Of the invasion itself, it would be very dangerous for China to gain such a hold over the global economy via Taiwans microchip industry.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 01:56:30 AM
Quote from: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 01:49:41 AMThe US has to intervene in any invasion of Taiwan.

Is it optional for everyone else?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 03:22:03 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 01:56:30 AM
Quote from: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 01:49:41 AMThe US has to intervene in any invasion of Taiwan.

Is it optional for everyone else?

Bar maybe Japan pretty much. Not many countries with carrier battle groups hanging around the area.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 03:24:25 AM
Quote from: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 03:22:03 AMBar maybe Japan pretty much. Not many countries with carrier battle groups hanging around the area.

Other countries have ground troops, combat aircrat, ASW frigates, destroyers, AA missile batteries, etc., etc.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 04:01:40 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 03:24:25 AM
Quote from: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 03:22:03 AMBar maybe Japan pretty much. Not many countries with carrier battle groups hanging around the area.

Other countries have ground troops, combat aircrat, ASW frigates, destroyers, AA missile batteries, etc., etc.

In position to react to a surprise Chinese invasion?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on July 15, 2022, 04:18:05 AM
Presumably it's very much in the interest of nations like Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines to contain an aggressive Commie China.

A bit further away there's Australia, New Zealand, India, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

If Russia should go non-retard it's also in their interest to contain China.

And then there's all of Nato.

So there are a lot of possible allies to the Republic of China that has interests aligning. Some kind of East Asian Nato could possibly be built to contain the commies.

Too bad that that Trump fucked up the budding alliance that Obama was building and also fucked up the credibility of the US.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:38:43 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 01:56:30 AMIs it optional for everyone else?

Well... no one else has a position as global power to defend. I think "the US has to intervene" is not "they are morally obligated to intervene" but rather "to maintain its economic and political and military security, the US basically has to intervene...." Though obviously that'll be for the US to decide.

That said, I'd think that the rest of the West and Asian allies should intervene from a moral and geopolitical standpoint... but doing so without the US would probably be relatively ineffective.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on July 15, 2022, 10:58:10 AM
Quote from: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 01:49:41 AMThe US has to intervene in any invasion of Taiwan.
Even ignoring morality, the country's reputation, geopolitics, etc... Of the invasion itself, it would be very dangerous for China to gain such a hold over the global economy via Taiwans microchip industry.

Did you miss the Trump Presidency by any chance?  You are talking like there will always be a rational actor in that seat.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 12:16:42 PM
At the same time, China seems to be having some economic troubles: bank runs and the construction/ real estate sector (which is a significant share of Chinese GDP and wealth) seems to be having real issues. It seems potentially pretty significant. If the CCP fails to hold up their end of the "we increase or at least maintain your standard of living and you let us rule" bargain, things could get pretty ugly.

Taking it back to Taiwan... on one hand it could mean "no times for expensive adventures when the economy is in trouble, especially ones that could hit the economy even harder." On the other hand, it could also lead to "let's distract from our economic woes by starting a war and whipping up a nationalist frenzy."

I dunno. I confess to having a lot of misgivings these days.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 12:39:23 PM
Should we be hoping for a Japanese politician to do something dumb and give an alternative outlet?

...then again that could just lead to an invasion of the Senkakus.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on July 15, 2022, 01:07:55 PM
Taiwan spend 16B on defense. Roughly the same as much more protected Canada and less then half the 58B that Japan spends. They're getting a 8B top up this year, but still why so low when you're in the shadow of the beast? The top up puts them at 3% of GDP, Which was their target for years but not attained.

Afraid of poking China? Expecting America to foot the bill? Other?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on July 15, 2022, 01:36:45 PM
Probably an assessment of the likelihood of an attack - the problem is that isn't a great metric to drive military spending given the lag time in deciding to commit spending and the result of that spending.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 07:19:20 PM
Quote from: Josquius on July 15, 2022, 04:01:40 AMIn position to react to a surprise Chinese invasion?

Military capability is a choice.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 07:22:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:38:43 AMWell... no one else has a position as global power to defend. I think "the US has to intervene" is not "they are morally obligated to intervene" but rather "to maintain its economic and political and military security, the US basically has to intervene...." Though obviously that'll be for the US to decide.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would threaten the US's economic and military security about as much as it would threaten Belgium's.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on July 15, 2022, 08:04:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 07:22:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:38:43 AMWell... no one else has a position as global power to defend. I think "the US has to intervene" is not "they are morally obligated to intervene" but rather "to maintain its economic and political and military security, the US basically has to intervene...." Though obviously that'll be for the US to decide.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would threaten the US's economic and military security about as much as it would threaten Belgium's.

Taiwan produces like 90% of the world's advanced microchips. If it goes, the developed world's economy goes to the shitter.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on July 15, 2022, 08:44:06 PM
I know it's obvious in hindsight, but how the fuck did the US just let a country under threat of Chinese attack be essentially the sole manufacturer of a super strategically important good?  I assume the US is stepping up the production now, but how long will it take to ramp up the production to the point where it's not vulnerable?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 08:44:41 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 07:22:56 PMA Chinese invasion of Taiwan would threaten the US's economic and military security about as much as it would threaten Belgium's.

I'm not convinced that's true, but I don't care enough to argue it so sure.

Even so, the US is entitled to (and should and typically does) assess the scenario and act based on its own interests.

Most of the analysis I've read have been by Americans, from an American point of view. And while I'm sure Belgium (and Canada and Denmark) has policy objectives and will feel the repercussions of a potential invasion, personally I'm more interested in the American point of view as I expect it to be more relevant to how things unfold.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 08:51:07 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 15, 2022, 08:44:06 PMI know it's obvious in hindsight, but how the fuck did the US just let a country under threat of Chinese attack be essentially the sole manufacturer of a super strategically important good?  I assume the US is stepping up the production now, but how long will it take to ramp up the production to the point where it's not vulnerable?

Part of it may be deterrence. "You know we can't let you take this... so don't try. "
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 09:31:24 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 08:44:41 PMEven so, the US is entitled to (and should and typically does) assess the scenario and act based on its own interests.

And other countries assess their own self interest with the assumption that the US will act to protect those as well.

How about Ukraine?  Much of the rhetoric is not about self interest on the part of countries imposing sanctions and/or supplying weapons, but rather defense against aggression to protect democracy, freedom, self-determination, etc.  Is that false rhetoric?  If it is true, shouldn't those principles apply to countries not just on Europe's borders?

Common defense against external aggression is part of the UN Charter.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on July 15, 2022, 09:37:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 15, 2022, 08:44:06 PMI know it's obvious in hindsight, but how the fuck did the US just let a country under threat of Chinese attack be essentially the sole manufacturer of a super strategically important good?  I assume the US is stepping up the production now, but how long will it take to ramp up the production to the point where it's not vulnerable?

According to what I've read on the topic it's been a gradual industry change that started in the late 80s when the current industry leader, a company called TSMC (one of these "the most important company you've never heard of" kind of companies) was founded and introduced a new production model (called the foundry model) for microchips. I guess that by the time China started to really be a threat this model was already so successful that most of the world's industry was following it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:25:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 09:31:24 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 08:44:41 PMEven so, the US is entitled to (and should and typically does) assess the scenario and act based on its own interests.

And other countries assess their own self interest with the assumption that the US will act to protect those as well.

How about Ukraine?  Much of the rhetoric is not about self interest on the part of countries imposing sanctions and/or supplying weapons, but rather defense against aggression to protect democracy, freedom, self-determination, etc.  Is that false rhetoric?  If it is true, shouldn't those principles apply to countries not just on Europe's borders?

Common defense against external aggression is part of the UN Charter.

For sure.

But what do you think the US will do if the PRC attacks Taiwan?

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 10:31:58 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:25:33 PMBut what do you think the US will do if the PRC attacks Taiwan?

Beets me.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:34:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 10:31:58 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:25:33 PMBut what do you think the US will do if the PRC attacks Taiwan?

Beets me.

What do you think the US should?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 10:51:07 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:34:43 PMWhat do you think the US should?

Make ambiguously threatening statements about intervening then walk away if China pulls the trigger.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on July 15, 2022, 11:10:24 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:34:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 15, 2022, 10:31:58 PM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:25:33 PMBut what do you think the US will do if the PRC attacks Taiwan?

Beets me.

What do you think the US should?

Make a deal with Taiwan and offer them full diplomatic recognition as an independent state if they cut all the old claims to the mainland (may even need to drop being the "Republic of China").  Then simultaneously sign a mutual defense pact (ideally with Japan/other east Asian allies) and park a few fighter squadrons and SAM batteries there.



Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 16, 2022, 01:47:48 AM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:34:43 PMWhat do you think the US should?

What do you think Canada and Denmark should do?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Eddie Teach on July 16, 2022, 01:55:21 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 16, 2022, 01:47:48 AM
Quote from: Jacob on July 15, 2022, 10:34:43 PMWhat do you think the US should?

What do you think Canada and Denmark should do?

Support us.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on July 16, 2022, 02:15:06 AM

Quote from: DGuller on July 15, 2022, 08:44:06 PMI know it's obvious in hindsight, but how the fuck did the US just let a country under threat of Chinese attack be essentially the sole manufacturer of a super strategically important good?  I assume the US is stepping up the production now, but how long will it take to ramp up the production to the point where it's not vulnerable?

Capitalism at work.
What the market says is the most efficient setup may not necessary be the best and most resilient setup.
I really hope we do learn this from covid rather than seeking to get back to business as usual as we did after all those lessons from 2008.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on July 16, 2022, 10:17:49 AM
Quote from: Josquius on July 16, 2022, 02:15:06 AM
Quote from: DGuller on July 15, 2022, 08:44:06 PMI know it's obvious in hindsight, but how the fuck did the US just let a country under threat of Chinese attack be essentially the sole manufacturer of a super strategically important good?  I assume the US is stepping up the production now, but how long will it take to ramp up the production to the point where it's not vulnerable?

Capitalism at work.
What the market says is the most efficient setup may not necessary be the best and most resilient setup.
I really hope we do learn this from covid rather than seeking to get back to business as usual as we did after all those lessons from 2008.
But we know long before Covid that strategically important goods should not be left to the free market.  I think Larch is correct that TSMC has cornered the market on superconductors just on the strength of their technology, but you'd think that we would still be able to convince (or coerce) them to set up some manufacturing capacity here in the US, obviously with some financial incentives.  Even if China doesn't succeed at taking Taiwan, I don't see why it would be more reluctant to give it a Grozny treatment than Russia would be.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on July 16, 2022, 10:41:30 AM
Quote from: DGuller on July 16, 2022, 10:17:49 AM
Quote from: Josquius on July 16, 2022, 02:15:06 AM
Quote from: DGuller on July 15, 2022, 08:44:06 PMI know it's obvious in hindsight, but how the fuck did the US just let a country under threat of Chinese attack be essentially the sole manufacturer of a super strategically important good?  I assume the US is stepping up the production now, but how long will it take to ramp up the production to the point where it's not vulnerable?

Capitalism at work.
What the market says is the most efficient setup may not necessary be the best and most resilient setup.
I really hope we do learn this from covid rather than seeking to get back to business as usual as we did after all those lessons from 2008.
But we know long before Covid that strategically important goods should not be left to the free market.  I think Larch is correct that TSMC has cornered the market on superconductors just on the strength of their technology, but you'd think that we would still be able to convince (or coerce) them to set up some manufacturing capacity here in the US, obviously with some financial incentives.  Even if China doesn't succeed at taking Taiwan, I don't see why it would be more reluctant to give it a Grozny treatment than Russia would be.

I think the answer is a combination of what Larch said and the fact that until recently globalization was considered to be a how modern economies should work.

 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 16, 2022, 10:57:30 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 16, 2022, 01:47:48 AMWhat do you think Canada and Denmark should do?

Participate in whatever US-led multilateral response is organized.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on July 16, 2022, 06:17:50 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 16, 2022, 10:17:49 AM
Quote from: Josquius on July 16, 2022, 02:15:06 AM
Quote from: DGuller on July 15, 2022, 08:44:06 PMI know it's obvious in hindsight, but how the fuck did the US just let a country under threat of Chinese attack be essentially the sole manufacturer of a super strategically important good?  I assume the US is stepping up the production now, but how long will it take to ramp up the production to the point where it's not vulnerable?

Capitalism at work.
What the market says is the most efficient setup may not necessary be the best and most resilient setup.
I really hope we do learn this from covid rather than seeking to get back to business as usual as we did after all those lessons from 2008.
But we know long before Covid that strategically important goods should not be left to the free market.  I think Larch is correct that TSMC has cornered the market on superconductors just on the strength of their technology, but you'd think that we would still be able to convince (or coerce) them to set up some manufacturing capacity here in the US, obviously with some financial incentives.  Even if China doesn't succeed at taking Taiwan, I don't see why it would be more reluctant to give it a Grozny treatment than Russia would be.

They're already doing so. In the last few years they've apparently started exploring ways to increase production outside of Taiwan, specifically in Japan, the US and Germany.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on July 17, 2022, 01:35:24 PM
Quote from: The Larch on July 16, 2022, 06:17:50 PMThey're already doing so. In the last few years they've apparently started exploring ways to increase production outside of Taiwan, specifically in Japan, the US and Germany.

So we'll have something in 10-15 years?  Cool.  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on July 17, 2022, 02:02:23 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 17, 2022, 01:35:24 PM
Quote from: The Larch on July 16, 2022, 06:17:50 PMThey're already doing so. In the last few years they've apparently started exploring ways to increase production outside of Taiwan, specifically in Japan, the US and Germany.

So we'll have something in 10-15 years?  Cool.  :P

Hey, Rome wasn't built in a day and you don't set up a multi-billion hi-tech factory from one day to the next.  :P

The one in the US, for instance, has been in the works at least since 2020. It'll be in Phoenix and its original budget was 12 billion $, later reviewed to possibly triple the factory's size and raise the budget to 35 billion $. They started construction in June 2021 and is expected to start production in 2024. The one in Japan is smaller, with a budget of "only" 8.6 billion $. The one planned for Germany is 44 billion $ in budget, as much as the other two combined, but is still at an earlier development stage.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on July 17, 2022, 02:07:23 PM
I seem not too long ago Siemens tried to invest heavily in that area setting up a huge plant near here... Big political celebration... Which failed quickly.

Even relying on one company seems unwise even if it spreads its stuff but that's the way the market goes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on July 17, 2022, 02:31:55 PM
Quote from: Josquius on July 17, 2022, 02:07:23 PMI seem not too long ago Siemens tried to invest heavily in that area setting up a huge plant near here... Big political celebration... Which failed quickly.
The former Siemens chip division is now Infineon and fairly healthy, among the ten biggest makers of semiconductors.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on July 17, 2022, 03:37:59 PM
So what's the economic situation in China? I heard mentions of unrest in some region over the Evergrande property thing?

Also a week or so ago I saw mention something what sounded like a lot of stimulus spending planned by the government. It is sounding a bit like they are entering their own rendition of the 2008 crisis, which would be awful timing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on July 17, 2022, 10:53:43 PM
Two key aspects of the Chinese economy: (1) RE prices don't just matter because of the housing market but because local and regional governments finance themselves through land sales. (2) Infrastructure spending is used to hit GDP targets regardless of need.  If you see announcements of big new programs out of China, it means the functionaries believe they are below the GDP targets.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on July 18, 2022, 04:01:12 AM
QuoteChina banks told to bail out property developers as mortgage boycotts threaten economy
Intervention comes as thousands of homebuyers refuse to make mortgage repayments in deepening property sector crisis

Chinese banks have been told to bail out struggling property developers to help them complete unfinished housing projects and head off the growing mortgage strike that threatens to seriously damage the economy.

With thousands of homebuyers banding together to refuse to keep up with mortgage instalments on unfinished apartments bought off the plan, regulators have stepped up efforts to encourage lenders to extend loans to qualified real estate projects.

The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) told the official industry newspaper on Sunday that banks should meet developers' financing needs where reasonable.

The CBIRC expressed confidence that with concerted efforts, "all the difficulties and problems will be properly solved", the China Banking and Insurance News reported.

Chinese bank shares still rallied on Monday in wake of the regulator's intervention and a belief that the government in Beijing will have enough policy measures at its disposal to control the situation.

However, it was not clear whether the banks would be able to absorb the cost of the mortgage strike, which is affecting an estimated 100 projects in 50 cities.

The value of the mortgages involved amounts to 2bn yuan ($300m), according to data from the banks on Friday, but some analysts think the real figure is much higher. GF Securities in Guangdong, for example, said that the amount could be 2tn yuan ($300bn).

The property sector in China, which accounts for up to 30% of economic output, has been in crisis since the slow collapse of the second biggest developer, Evergrande, began last year. Since then the toxic fallout from its default on a large part of its $300bn debt mountain has started to spread throughout the economy.

As the government's zero-Covid policy continues to cripple activity and property sales continue to struggle, analysts at S&P issued a chilling warning on Monday that the writing was now on the wall for property companies facing bond payments totalling $88bn before the end of the year.

"The end of the beginning is at hand for China developer defaults," S&P said. "In the first stage, firms asked investors to exchange or extend defaulted bonds, to buy some time until the property market recovers. In the next stage, we assume investors will lose patience for such deferrals, especially if home sales do not soon recover."

If home sales do not pick up sufficiently, S&P said, up to one in five of the rated companies face going bust.

"Based on our sensitivity tests, at least one-fifth of rated Chinese developers could be insolvent. This assumes no refinancing, and that all pre-sold obligations are completed."

In another note, the rating agency downgraded the Henan province-based developer Central China Real Estate to a B-minus rating as sales fell 55% in the first half of the year and household income also dipped amid the ongoing problems caused by successive Covid lockdowns.

It also noted that "a series of incidents in Henan" had "sparked homebuyers' concerns over smooth delivery of pre-sold properties in the industry downcycle", suggesting falling confidence in the industry after hundreds of savers demonstrated outside a bank in Henan in protest at not being able to access their accounts.

Mark Dong, Hong Kong-based co-founder and general manager of Minority Asset Management, said Beijing had the will to fix the crisis and expected state-owned developers to step in and acquire troubled projects from heavily indebted private peers, accelerating an industry consolidation.

The CBIRC had already vowed last Thursday to strengthen its coordination with other regulators to "guarantee the delivery of homes".

The rebound in Chinese banking stocks was also aided by news that China will accelerate the issuance of special local government bonds to help supplement the capital of small banks, part of efforts to reduce risks in the sector.

Another regulatory measure included possible tighter rules around the escrow accounts where upfront payments for homes bought off the plan are held. The idea is for that money to be used to complete projects but there is concern that in some cases the funds can be diverted elsewhere by developers to pay off different debts.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 19, 2022, 11:02:23 AM
Between a 250+% debt to GDP ratio, Covid-zero policies grinding growth to a halt, government funded thugs undermining public confidence in the banking system, the looming default of massive real estate companies, and the very real risk that billions of dollars of overseas debt will become non-performing China's economy may be a bit at risk:

QuoteChina's debt bomb looks ready to explode
Many warning signs suggesting that a debt reckoning is imminent

Minxin Pei is professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a nonresident senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Confidence in the safety of Chinese banks has been badly shaken by the failure of several small banks in Henan Province in April this year. In terms of their assets of about 40 billion yuan ($6 billion) and the number of customers, roughly 400,000, the shuttered rural banks are minions in China's financial system.

The implosion of these poorly supervised and likely corruption-ridden financial institutions should not be surprising. But how local authorities handled the fallout is shocking even to the most jaded observers of China's political scene.

Instead of compensating the depositors, who are entitled to up to 500,000 yuan, according to government regulations, officials in Henan have done everything imaginable to silence them.

They initially restricted the movement of the depositors by turning the COVID test code on their smartphones red, which effectively made it impossible for them to take public transportation or even drive their own cars. A public outcry forced the Henan government to abandon this abusive tactic.

But when several hundred depositors unable to gain access to their savings in the failed banks gathered on July 10 to protest in front of the People's Bank branch office in Zhengzhou, capital of Henan, local officials sent in a large number of thugs who viciously assaulted the depositors, with uniformed police officers looking on.

This scandal should alarm investors not simply because of the brutal tactics used by local authorities eager to cover it up but because of the circumstances under which these small banks failed.

Ever since China began to binge on debt to fuel its growth in 2009, many have wondered how long the party could go on. To the chagrin of many bearish observers, predictions of a financial crisis have not panned out. Today, China's banking system is still standing despite a debt-to-GDP ratio of 264%.

Perhaps because Beijing seems to be able to defy financial gravity, fewer people these days worry that its ballooning debt could unleash a systemic crisis. But there are many warning signs indicating that China may face a debt reckoning soon.

Weak supervision, poor risk management and corruption that likely drove the small rural banks in Henan into insolvency are systemic among the country's nearly 4,000 small and medium-sized banks with nearly $14 trillion assets.

It is highly likely that other similar banks will fail soon. By pure coincidence, when Henan authorities were cracking down on the victims of bank failure there, authorities in Shanghai had put on trial, in secret, a former billionaire who allegedly controlled a medium-sized bank in Inner Mongolia and used it to fund various illicit schemes. When the government seized the failed bank in 2019, the bailout cost several billion dollars.

If a large number of small banks fail together, such an event could produce a chain reaction threatening the stability of the financial sector. Their counterparties and lenders, especially bigger banks, could suffer massive losses. Confidence in China's shadow banking system, through which small banks attract funds with a higher interest rate, will likely evaporate.

The chances of such a financial meltdown are much higher today than before. One of the reasons that China has avoided a financial crisis in the last decade is that its economy managed to grow at a reasonably high rate, averaging 6.8% a year from 2011 to 2020. A faster-growing economy normally makes it easier to manage or even conceal the debt burden.

But as the Chinese economy is now slowing down rapidly, in part due to Beijing's zero-COVID policy, the debt bomb is ticking much louder.

The most ominous warning light is clearly China's debt-ridden real estate sector. China Evergrande Group, the country's largest real estate developer, which has borrowed more than $300 billion, has already defaulted on its bonds. More defaults seem likely because Chinese developers are on the hook for $13 billion in dollar-denominated bond payments in the second half of this year.

China's debt-laden local governments are also facing grim prospects. Declining income from land sales because of the crisis in the real estate sector and falling tax receipts are expected to cause a 6 trillion yuan shortfall, roughly $900 billion, in local government revenues this year. Local government financing vehicles that have borrowed heavily from banks or issued bonds will have great difficulties servicing their debt.

Large banks in China are in trouble as well. They have lent tens of billions to poor countries as part of China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. A significant portion of their credit portfolio is likely to become nonperforming as their borrowers are unable to service the debt due to the global economic downturn.

The most recent economic implosion and the collapse of the government of Sri Lanka will likely force their Chinese lenders to write off a large portion of the loans. If big Chinese banks themselves face rising nonperforming loans abroad, they will be less able to help bail out insolvent small or medium-sized banks at home.

It might be possible for China to dodge another financial meltdown this time. But if local officials have to hire thugs to attack bank customers trying to get their money back, investors should brace for far worse days ahead for China's banking sector.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-debt-bomb-looks-ready-to-explode
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on July 19, 2022, 01:31:11 PM
It is quite worrying.
If it was just that then I'd hope the good of fuck the PRC would outweigh the bad.
But with all the other economic upheaval factors currently at play too...

Quote from: Josquius on July 17, 2022, 02:07:23 PMI seem not too long ago Siemens tried to invest heavily in that area setting up a huge plant near here... Big political celebration... Which failed quickly.
The former Siemens chip division is now Infineon and fairly healthy, among the ten biggest makers of semiconductors.
[/quote]

What went wrong in the UK?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on July 21, 2022, 11:39:38 AM
From the Globe and Mail


QuoteWhen Canadian-Chinese billionaire Xiao Jianhua was kidnapped from a hotel in Hong Kong in 2017, halfway across the world in Poland, David Lesperance's phone started ringing.

Originally from Ontario, Mr. Lesperance specializes in helping wealthy individuals secure alternative passports and move their businesses and money overseas, out of the reach of potentially hostile governments. Or, as he puts it, "protecting your ass and your assets."

For many rich Chinese, Mr. Xiao, who was worth an estimated US$4.5-billion when he was snatched, has become the ultimate cautionary tale.

He had moved much of his wealth out of the country, held both Canadian and Antiguan passports and avoided mainland China, operating instead from nominally autonomous Hong Kong. But in the end, none of this was enough to protect him from Beijing.

When the tycoon finally went on trial in Shanghai this month, Mr. Lesperance said he saw another spike in enquiries from wealthy Chinese wanting to avoid his fate, worried their own escape plans were equally not fit for purpose.

Since Chinese President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, many elite figures who once thought themselves untouchable have been caught up in his sweeping anti-corruption campaign or by more recent clampdowns targeting the technology and financial sectors.

"When they went after Jack Ma, you had a lot of people saying, 'Well, I'm not as big as Jack Ma, so I better plan accordingly,'" Mr. Lesperance said, referring to the founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba, who largely disappeared from public view after a public spat with Beijing in late 2020.

China's tough "zero-COVID" policy, which has led to draconian lockdowns in Shanghai and dozens of other cities, has also made many Chinese – both wealthy and not – consider moving elsewhere.

Last month, Huang Yimeng, the billionaire co-founder of Shanghai-based gaming firm XD Inc., said he was preparing to leave China, citing family reasons. The announcement was widely discussed online, with many pointing to Mr. Huang's personal experience of the Shanghai lockdown as well as a bruising government crackdown on the gaming industry.

According to investment migration consultancy Henley & Partners, some 13,000 high-net-worth individuals will leave China and Hong Kong this year, almost as many as the 15,000 predicted to depart Russia. They will take with them billions of dollars in assets, with Portugal, Singapore and a number of Caribbean countries among the top destinations, thanks to generous residence or citizenship programs.

Andrew Amoils, head of research at New World Wealth, a South African-based consultancy, said that "affluent individuals are extremely mobile, and their movements can provide an early warning signal into future country trends."

"Wealth emigration is beginning to hurt in China," he wrote in a recent report. "General wealth growth in the country has been slowing over the past few years. As such, recent outflows of [high-net-worth individuals] may be more damaging than in the past."

This could be why Beijing is throwing up barriers to those trying to leave.

China has some of the tightest foreign exchange controls in the world, with citizens only allowed to convert US$50,000 a year, and strict reporting requirements on most overseas transactions. While people with foreign residency or citizenship can move money out of the country more easily, doing so in the current climate may put them on the wrong side of the government.

"You have to plan to try and get as much out as possible, as you're only going to have one chance to do it," said Mr. Lesperance. And you may be leaving behind more than money, he added, pointing to how China has used exit bans to punish the family members of those it deems to have fled overseas.

In 2018, American siblings Victor and Cynthia Liu found themselves trapped in China after travelling there to see an ailing grandfather. Their father, former Bank of Communications official Liu Changming, had left the country in 2007 facing fraud charges, but his children maintained they had no contact with Mr. Liu and no way to get him to return to China.

They were finally released last year, apparently as part of the deal that saw U.S. prosecutors resolve a case against Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, which also prompted the release of detained Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.

Even just physically leaving the country has become more difficult.

Earlier this year, Beijing announced strict curbs on all "non-essential" overseas travel. While ostensibly in the name of fighting COVID-19, the restrictions coincided with a spike in outbound travel and widespread discussion online of "run-ology," a term used for both the desire to leave and practical tips and strategies for doing so.

In 2021, China issued just 630,000 passports, about 2 per cent of the number handed out in 2019, according to the National Immigration Administration. Applicants now have to show an urgent need to travel, such as a job offer or place at a foreign university.

There have also been reports of immigration staff clipping the corners of Chinese travellers' passports when they return home, preventing them from leaving again, though the NIA has denied that such a policy is in place.

Eva Li, a 27-year-old Shanghai resident, told The Globe and Mail that she tried to renew her passport in June but was rejected.

"I told them my passport was expiring and I wanted to get a new one," she said. "I had a 10-year visa [for the U.S.] on it, and they said it's impossible to renew a passport with a tourism visa on it, as now the policy is that people should avoid going abroad unnecessarily."

Ms. Li said she is worried that leaving the country "might be nothing but a dream in the future."

"I do want to travel more," she said. "To be honest, I'd love to leave tomorrow, but how?"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on July 21, 2022, 12:33:17 PM
I'm kind of ok with that.  They profited from corruption and graft, so now face the repercussions. Sucks for the none wealthy though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on July 21, 2022, 01:36:20 PM
Too bad Mono is no longer around to give us the pro-Beijing spin on things. He must be getting fairly dizzy spinning around.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 02, 2022, 10:21:00 AM
Chinese official and social media is going completely OTT re: Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, covering her every move minute by minute.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zoupa on August 02, 2022, 10:59:41 AM
I think the last few months have proved there's only one superpower in this world.

US calling bluffs left and right. Old Nancy and Joe don't give a fuck, I love it.  :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on August 02, 2022, 11:20:50 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 02, 2022, 10:21:00 AMChinese official and social media is going completely OTT re: Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, covering her every move minute by minute.

Pretty humiliating for China to let the Americans yank them around like that if all they do is huff and puff but then do nothing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 02, 2022, 12:15:23 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 02, 2022, 11:20:50 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 02, 2022, 10:21:00 AMChinese official and social media is going completely OTT re: Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, covering her every move minute by minute.

Pretty humiliating for China to let the Americans yank them around like that if all they do is huff and puff but then do nothing.

China's Final Warning (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning#:~:text=%22China's%20final%20warning%22%20(Russian,that%20carries%20no%20real%20consequences.)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: FunkMonk on August 02, 2022, 12:17:45 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on August 02, 2022, 10:59:41 AMI think the last few months have proved there's only one superpower in this world.

US calling bluffs left and right. Old Nancy and Joe don't give a fuck, I love it.  :)

 :cheers:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 02, 2022, 02:34:05 PM
The footage of Chinese tanks racing about on the beach and scattering tourists is quite funny.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on August 02, 2022, 03:53:45 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 02, 2022, 12:15:23 PMChina's Final Warning (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning#:~:text=%22China's%20final%20warning%22%20(Russian,that%20carries%20no%20real%20consequences.)

QuoteThe People's Republic of China released their first "final warning" to the United States for their reconnaissance flights on 7 September 1958, during the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. At the time, the United States considered the Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of China, and conducted reconnaissance flights in waters controlled by the People's Republic of China. The People's Republic of China recorded such incidents, and issued a "final warning" through diplomatic channels for each incident. More than 900 Chinese "final warnings" had been issued by the end of 1964

:lol:

Yeah basically nothing happened. Maybe someone in Xi's inner circle told him the truth about what will happen to Chinese food and energy imports if they go to war with the US. They'll be back to Mao period living standards in 6 months.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on August 02, 2022, 07:54:10 PM
I can see the PLA attempting to take one or more of the outlying Tiawanese islands that lie close to the mainland, not necessarily Quemoy or Matsu (sp?) but the less inhabited ones and/or those that are little more than tidal mudflats.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on August 02, 2022, 08:23:08 PM
I'm kinda surprised they don't (or haven't already) just bumrush the Kinmen islands.  It'd be a good test of international/US resolve on the issue ahead of a full-on invasion of Taiwan proper.  Seems like it'd be pretty easy to get away with.

Unless the calculus is that such a trick might only work once, and if you go for it, you gotta go for it all.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 02, 2022, 08:59:58 PM
Speaking of Kinmen, here's the Kinmen Tourism Association song:

My wife and I have been wanting to visit at some point in the not too distant future. Hopefully events won't make that impossible.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 03, 2022, 03:17:40 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 02, 2022, 12:15:23 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on August 02, 2022, 11:20:50 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 02, 2022, 10:21:00 AMChinese official and social media is going completely OTT re: Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, covering her every move minute by minute.

Pretty humiliating for China to let the Americans yank them around like that if all they do is huff and puff but then do nothing.

China's Final Warning (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning#:~:text=%22China's%20final%20warning%22%20(Russian,that%20carries%20no%20real%20consequences.)
Huh, I never realized that's where the Russian saying "Последнее китайское предупреждение" comes from.  I think most people using it in Russian don't realize it either, because they use it as if it's adding emphasis to the warning rather than detracting from it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on August 03, 2022, 03:56:43 PM
In a shocking turn of events, Simon Jenkins disapproves of the Pelosi visit.  :lol:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/03/taiwan-nancy-pelosi-visit-ukraine-us
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 03, 2022, 06:42:24 PM
A similar ambiguity infuses the west's attitude towards Russia over Ukraine. The US and Britain reiterate that Russia "must fail and be seen to fail". But can Russia really be relied on to tolerate ever greater destruction of its armaments without escalation? The west seems set on holding Ukraine to a drawn game, hoping to postpone some horrific penalty shootout. All Russia can do is perpetrate ever more atrocities to keep its team in play. Suppose it escalates something else?

Ossum stuff.

Please tell me Mr. Jenkins, if the West really wanted Ukraine to win, what would they be doing differently?

Or perhaps by drawn game you mean Ukraine should surrender immediately?

And we're forcing poor Poutine to commit atrocities?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 03, 2022, 09:06:04 PM
QuoteThe fates of Ukraine and Taiwan merit every diplomatic support but they cannot be allowed to lurch downhill towards global war or nuclear catastrophe. This may reduce the effect – always overstated – of nuclear deterrence, and make them vulnerable to blackmail. But it is one thing to declare yourself "rather dead than red", quite another to inflict that decision on others.

Ran this through Google translate but couldn't get an English translation.  Does anyone know the source langauge?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 04, 2022, 04:21:03 AM
Simon Jenkins - the wrongest man in Britain :lol:

Literally every week this happens.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 04, 2022, 05:00:13 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 04, 2022, 04:21:03 AMSimon Jenkins - the wrongest man in Britain :lol:

Literally every week this happens.

I decided to check on him and see what he did at university. As I expected/hoped, he did PPE at Oxford  :lol:

The purveyors of that degree ought to hang their heads in shame.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on August 04, 2022, 05:44:34 AM
That's a weird mixture of subjects.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on August 04, 2022, 05:53:14 AM
Quote from: HVC on August 04, 2022, 05:44:34 AMThat's a weird mixture of subjects.

It's the choice degree for British politicians, IIRC.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 04, 2022, 06:21:18 AM
And journalists (hell, it was Riz Ahmed's degree). There's an entire genre of books and articles about how Oxford and PPE are ruining the country by people who did PPE at Oxford (as they remind us regularly in their articles/books) :lol:

Simon Kuper is particularly bad at this - but literally on Sunday, Will Self had a piece: "PPE at Oxford has produced a Pernicious Political Elite - and me".

I feel like it's a very particular brand of humble-bragging.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on August 04, 2022, 07:00:07 AM
What's the allure of producing jack-of-all-asses?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 04, 2022, 07:24:44 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 04, 2022, 06:21:18 AMAnd journalists (hell, it was Riz Ahmed's degree). There's an entire genre of books and articles about how Oxford and PPE are ruining the country by people who did PPE at Oxford (as they remind us regularly in their articles/books) :lol:

Simon Kuper is particularly bad at this - but literally on Sunday, Will Self had a piece: "PPE at Oxford has produced a Pernicious Political Elite - and me".

I feel like it's a very particular brand of humble-bragging.

Meh. Just because you're one of the uber privelged elites doesn't mean you must use your power to keep the unfair system in place. Perfectly valid for people from the public school - oxbridge production line to point out it isn't right that people like themselves have so much privelege.
It could be argued even that it's the right thing to do when you get such an opportunity to take it to better being down the system.

Of course then there's examples like this where they do it poorly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 04, 2022, 11:31:32 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 04, 2022, 04:21:03 AMSimon Jenkins - the wrongest man in Britain :lol:

Literally every week this happens.

I personally thought the visit was inadvisable, but Jenkins' piece is so awful the most logical explanation is that he is an agent provocateur in favor of it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 04, 2022, 11:37:02 AM
I agree with the folks that argue that incrementally giving in to China's bullying on this increases danger, just like letting Russia fuck around with Ukraine encouraged Putin.

As Pelosi said, Congressional delegations to Taiwan are not rare. China decided to go all in on this one. But the US - and the world - should not let China dictate how other countries interact.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on August 05, 2022, 11:52:27 AM
Congressional delegations to Taiwan are not rare, but the Speaker of the House hasn't visited in like 25 years. I think there's two-fold issues here--one is the fact that Xi is certainly looking to stir up trouble and stoke his "Wolf Warrior" position in preparation for his party congress which will see his third term confirmed. We cannot simply kowtow to a Chinese leader who wants to act bellicose for domestic political purposes.

On the flipside, we made a commitment as a country, to essentially recognize PRC as the government of China. As part of that, we did essentially betray Taiwan. That was something that maybe the American stomach couldn't handle, so we developed our posture of "supporting Taiwan's ability to defend itself" and "a desire for no-unilateral change in Status" and "perpetual peace in the Taiwan strait." But at core, we did turn our back on Taiwan for the PRC. As part of that normalization of relations with the PRC, we acknowledged that there is only one China.

If the baseline U.S. position back when the agreement occurred was thus that there was "one China, but we also will support Taiwan's ability to defend itself and oppose any bellicose change in status", the reality is it is on us to not attempt to undermine the "one China" part. PRC has a valid beef that we have, in some areas and in minor ways, been pushing things that could be interpreted as attempting to change the One China reality. I don't think we've done anything to warrant the response Xi is giving, but we did make a commitment to One China and I think it's not totally irrational that China is paranoid about any signs that we are attempting to renege on that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 05, 2022, 11:57:57 AM
IMO, the West's commitment to "one China" is about as solid as China's commitment to human rights. It's something we say for reasons of convenience and to manage political realities, but it is not something we actually support.

So yeah, you're right it makes sense for China to be paranoid about it, because only they're bullying is what keeps it in place.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 05, 2022, 12:19:58 PM
The purpose of the visit is purely political; it's a way for Pelosi to shore up the national security credentials of congressional Democrats in a way that the GOP cannot object to and must support.  Otherwise it's an empty gesture.  The Taiwanese were not aching to hear Pelosi's oratorical prowess first hand.

The way it played out it did bring some benefit to the good guys, who are getting some free intel about current PRC naval and air capabilities.  PRC would have been better served making a curt and firm diplomatic protest and otherwise maintain an ominous silence.

The Chinese leadership is conservative in the small "c" sense - they are not eager to risk their position and the Party with an uncertain war with the West, especially after watching Russia's difficulties tangling with their supposed breakaway province.   At the same time, the Party has to maintain face as the guardian of national sovereignty domestically.  If Xi is forced to make a decision between the two priorities, its likely he will opt for domestic stability first, even at the risk of uncertain war.

I'm not categorically averse to some poking of the dragon, but only for a real return.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 05, 2022, 12:23:59 PM
The fact that US support for One China is mostly lip service only makes it more important to be seen to be maintaining the pretext.  The policy serves a purpose.  A decision to drop or revise it should not be made lightly, and should not be driven by 2022 midterm election politics.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 05, 2022, 12:37:44 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 05, 2022, 12:23:59 PMThe fact that US support for One China is mostly lip service only makes it more important to be seen to be maintaining the pretext.  The policy serves a purpose.  A decision to drop or revise it should not be made lightly, and should not be driven by 2022 midterm election politics.

The One China policy is a bit more nuanced than that.  It does not concede that China has sovereignty over Taiwan.  It does concede that the Republic of China does not exist.  Pelosi's visit fits in that grey area.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 05, 2022, 12:50:51 PM
The communique states: "The US side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position."

The communication itself does not concede PRC sovereignty over Taiwan.  However, the US subsequently recognized the PRC and withdrew diplomatic recognition from Taiwan.  That decision, when combined with the US government's agreement not to challenge the One China position, means that the US position is not to challenge PRC sovereignty.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 05, 2022, 01:04:37 PM
It also does not concede it.  Has there ever been a US person with any governmental authority who has said that the PRC has sovereignty over Taiwan?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 05, 2022, 01:35:42 PM
It's a negative commitment - an agreement not to challenge.  The Pelosi visit is in tension with that commitment.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 05, 2022, 03:26:30 PM
Given everything the US has done to assist Taiwan I think it unlikely the commitment was ever as strong as you say it is.  Although a commitment not to challenge is itself a nuanced concept if you put Pelosi's presence on the wrong side of the line, then surely the US allowing military support and materials to go to Taiwan would also have been a breach of the commitment.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on August 05, 2022, 03:37:30 PM
Yeah, I admit that I'm not particularly clued into all the pageantry of international relations, but if I was China I'd take more umbrage at the multibillion military aid than at Nancy Pelosi.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 05, 2022, 03:57:44 PM
I think it's an amorpheous thing... they take umbrage at everything they can, with a special focus on things they think they can push across the line as "okay, we won't do that again". The long term view is to push everything across, but at any given time anything they can push is a step in the right direction for the PRC regime.

If they could push military aid across, they would. But if they can get the US and others to make concessions on other things to avoid PRC anger, they'll take that.

Bullying by milimetres, basically.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 05, 2022, 04:25:24 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 05, 2022, 03:57:44 PMI think it's an amorpheous thing... they take umbrage at everything they can, with a special focus on things they think they can push across the line as "okay, we won't do that again". The long term view is to push everything across, but at any given time anything they can push is a step in the right direction for the PRC regime.

If they could push military aid across, they would. But if they can get the US and other to make concessions on other things to avoid PRC anger, they'll take that.

Bullying by milimetres, basically.

I agree entirely with your analysis, which is one of the reasons I disagree with the view expressed by Joan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 05, 2022, 04:57:38 PM
The stuff about not cooperating on global warming was worrying.
I just hope they're not nuts enough to go "Right, well, who cares about the planet anyway"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 05, 2022, 05:00:54 PM
Quote from: Josquius on August 05, 2022, 04:57:38 PMThe stuff about not cooperating on global warming was worrying.
I just hope they're not nuts enough to go "Right, well, who cares about the planet anyway"

They are the world leaders in the tech - empty words.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 05, 2022, 05:03:54 PM
Quote from: Josquius on August 05, 2022, 04:57:38 PMThe stuff about not cooperating on global warming was worrying.
I just hope they're not nuts enough to go "Right, well, who cares about the planet anyway"
They've got their own reasons for wanting to get carbon neutral and are committed to that.

And it sort of goes both ways - I think what convinced Manchin on the decarbonisation spending was apparently the need to avoid Chinese dominance in those areas. Both sides need to cooperate for the good of the world, for both domestically tension that will stop them cooperating might push them more into decarbonising - it's maybe a bit of an irony? :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on August 07, 2022, 01:15:39 PM
Quote from: celedhring on August 05, 2022, 03:37:30 PMYeah, I admit that I'm not particularly clued into all the pageantry of international relations, but if I was China I'd take more umbrage at the multibillion military aid than at Nancy Pelosi.

Part of why I think the multibillion dollars in military aid isn't as much of a flash point is because it was specifically addressed during our normalization negotiations with PRC. It was essentially agreed that "there would be no agreement on this matter, and both sides will continue to disagree." That means PRC will occasionally huff and puff, but because it's kind of a black and white area where both sides agreed to normalize in spite of that outstanding, unresolved disagreement, it has never been as useful for Beijing as other things in their grievance parties.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on August 07, 2022, 09:57:40 PM
Apple sides with China, tells Taiwanese suppliers to label their products as made in China. "Taiwan, China" specifically.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/07/apple-asks-suppliers-in-taiwan-to-label-products-as-made-in-china-report
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 07, 2022, 10:01:43 PM
Yet another reason to avoid Apple products
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 07, 2022, 10:10:33 PM
I've said it before, but I think the only way to combat such attacks by China on private citizens and corporations is to make it illegal to give in to China's demands.  By giving companies or individuals the option to succumb to China's demands you're actually exposing them to tremendous pressure by China. 

The way governments work is that they're the ones who deal with geopolitical shit, in exchange for those falling under their protection not having the ability to negotiate their own geopolitical agreements.  That's the deal, and it actually works out to the benefit of the little guy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on August 07, 2022, 10:36:59 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 07, 2022, 10:10:33 PMI've said it before, but I think the only way to combat such attacks by China on private citizens and corporations is to make it illegal to give in to China's demands.  By giving companies or individuals the option to succumb to China's demands you're actually exposing them to tremendous pressure by China. 

The way governments work is that they're the ones who deal with geopolitical shit, in exchange for those falling under their protection not having the ability to negotiate their own geopolitical agreements.  That's the deal, and it actually works out to the benefit of the little guy.

Agreed
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 08, 2022, 07:25:32 AM
DGuller, since this is a regulation for importing into China, your proposal would cause companies who wish to continue to conduct business in China between paying fines in China or fines in whatever country makes it illegal to comply with Chinese regulations.

If your goal is to stop all commercial relations with China then your proposal is a good first step. But otherwise, not so much.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 08:17:15 AM
Quote from: celedhring on August 05, 2022, 03:37:30 PMYeah, I admit that I'm not particularly clued into all the pageantry of international relations, but if I was China I'd take more umbrage at the multibillion military aid than at Nancy Pelosi.

The aid is part of the 70s era settlement of the "China question".  The US agreed to recognize the PRC as China but on the understanding that the US would support Taiwan in resisting unification by force.  That has been the status quo for over 40 years.  The PRC may not like it, but it does not represent a threatened change in policy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 08:21:14 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on August 07, 2022, 01:15:39 PMPart of why I think the multibillion dollars in military aid isn't as much of a flash point is because it was specifically addressed during our normalization negotiations with PRC. It was essentially agreed that "there would be no agreement on this matter, and both sides will continue to disagree." That means PRC will occasionally huff and puff, but because it's kind of a black and white area where both sides agreed to normalize in spite of that outstanding, unresolved disagreement, it has never been as useful for Beijing as other things in their grievance parties.

Yes, this.
What sets off the PRC is the perception that policy is changing in a way they don't like.  A continuation of a policy they don't like is not perceived the same way.

And yes the PRC are a bunch of hypocrites that try to revise prior understandings themselves - i.e. violating the HK accords; signing and then flagrantly violating the LOS convention, etc. They like to test the West by pushing the envelope but by the same token they recognize similar actions against them and push back when they perceive it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 08, 2022, 08:47:19 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 08:17:15 AM
Quote from: celedhring on August 05, 2022, 03:37:30 PMYeah, I admit that I'm not particularly clued into all the pageantry of international relations, but if I was China I'd take more umbrage at the multibillion military aid than at Nancy Pelosi.

The aid is part of the 70s era settlement of the "China question".  The US agreed to recognize the PRC as China but on the understanding that the US would support Taiwan in resisting unification by force.  That has been the status quo for over 40 years.  The PRC may not like it, but it does not represent a threatened change in policy.

And so you are going to have to explain how Pelosi's visit is inconsistent with that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 08, 2022, 08:48:25 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 08:21:14 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on August 07, 2022, 01:15:39 PMPart of why I think the multibillion dollars in military aid isn't as much of a flash point is because it was specifically addressed during our normalization negotiations with PRC. It was essentially agreed that "there would be no agreement on this matter, and both sides will continue to disagree." That means PRC will occasionally huff and puff, but because it's kind of a black and white area where both sides agreed to normalize in spite of that outstanding, unresolved disagreement, it has never been as useful for Beijing as other things in their grievance parties.

Yes, this.
What sets off the PRC is the perception that policy is changing in a way they don't like.  A continuation of a policy they don't like is not perceived the same way.

And yes the PRC are a bunch of hypocrites that try to revise prior understandings themselves - i.e. violating the HK accords; signing and then flagrantly violating the LOS convention, etc. They like to test the West by pushing the envelope but by the same token they recognize similar actions against them and push back when they perceive it.

It's a change of policy because the APRC says it is?  I don't buy it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 10:22:08 AM
The China recognized by the US government did not give permission to visit but Pelosi went anyways based on the permission granted by the China not recognized by the United States.  Hence the inconsistency.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 08, 2022, 10:25:23 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 10:22:08 AMThe China recognized by the US government did not give permission to visit but Pelosi went anyways based on the permission granted by the China not recognized by the United States.  Hence the inconsistency.

How so, you yourself said "The US agreed to recognize the PRC as China but on the understanding that the US would support Taiwan in resisting unification by force".  Pelosi's visit is entirely consistent with that understanding.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 08, 2022, 10:55:13 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 10:22:08 AMThe China recognized by the US government did not give permission to visit but Pelosi went anyways based on the permission granted by the China not recognized by the United States.  Hence the inconsistency.

Has the PRC's permission been sought and granted by previous visits from US representatives? I believe the Speaker of the House visited Taiwan some 25 years ago and other Congressional delegations visited much more recently (this year even?) - did the PRC grant permission in those cases?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 11:03:13 AM
There was diplomatic back and forth in 97 but ultimately the PRC greenlighted the Gingrich visit as long as he didn't fly direct from China to Taipei.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 11:09:33 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 08, 2022, 10:25:23 AMHow so, you yourself said "The US agreed to recognize the PRC as China but on the understanding that the US would support Taiwan in resisting unification by force".  Pelosi's visit is entirely consistent with that understanding.

Despite the claims of Fox News, I don't think Nancy Pelosi has much explosive content. And the use of the House Speaker as ordinance seems disrespectful to the office not to mention dangerous to her health.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 08, 2022, 11:12:09 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 11:09:33 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 08, 2022, 10:25:23 AMHow so, you yourself said "The US agreed to recognize the PRC as China but on the understanding that the US would support Taiwan in resisting unification by force".  Pelosi's visit is entirely consistent with that understanding.

Despite the claims of Fox News, I don't think Nancy Pelosi has much explosive content. And the use of the House Speaker as ordinance seems disrespectful to the office not to mention dangerous to her health.

The current state of US gun laws may have distracted you from the fact that one can support resistance without ordinance.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on August 08, 2022, 11:13:11 AM
As long as she's not used as ordnance.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 08, 2022, 11:48:41 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 08, 2022, 11:03:13 AMThere was diplomatic back and forth in 97 but ultimately the PRC greenlighted the Gingrich visit as long as he didn't fly direct from China to Taipei.

Interesting.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 09, 2022, 07:18:13 PM
It makes strategic sense for both the US and the EU to commit to domestic chip manufacturing, absolutely.

Still, if I was in Taiwan those announcements would give me a sinking feeling of becoming more expendable :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on August 10, 2022, 06:52:16 AM
Quote from: Jacob on August 09, 2022, 07:18:13 PMIt makes strategic sense for both the US and the EU to commit to domestic chip manufacturing, absolutely.

Still, if I was in Taiwan those announcements would give me a sinking feeling of becoming more expendable :(

I have no idea of the numbers of potential chip manufacturing outside of Taiwan being bandied about by the US or the EU, but I seriously doubt that they'll unseat Taiwan as the main producer by far of microchips in the world. I mean, Taiwan's TSMC is even part of some of these projects to increase manufacturing outside of Taiwan itself.

It's not about Taiwan becoming expendable, it's about the rest of the world's economy not being so overwhelmingly dependant on Taiwan manufacturing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 10, 2022, 08:17:43 AM
I agree.  Taiwan is going to be important for the foreseeable future in the industry no matter what, it's just a difference between a massively disruptive event and a catastrophic shortage.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on August 10, 2022, 08:30:42 AM
Right, the goal of steps we're taking now should be to shore up domestic chip production for critical national defense and infrastructure industries. We should also take a bit of a global approach to trying to purchase and invest in chip production in non-Chinese/Taiwanese sources as much as possible. The perfect can often be the enemy of the good, we cannot insulate ourselves from the risks of Chinese domination of the chip market in case of a Taiwanese invasion, but that does not mean we should not even attempt to alleviate the problem. I'd note that something to remember is unless Taiwan were to capitulate bloodlessly, it is highly likely much of TMSC's assets would be damaged or destroyed in an all out war, and chip fabs don't get repaired in a few weeks or even a few months, they take years to get built.

This is yet another glaring fault of entrusting things of high national concern to the sole vagaries of the free market, there are probably good economic efficiency reasons so much of the world's chip manufacturing happens in Taiwan. But it is not good "industrial policy" (which the United States has lacked for over 40 years.)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 10, 2022, 12:04:54 PM
Iirc both Belgium and the Netherlands have some advanced chip production but not in amounts that rival Taiwan. Not by a mile.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 11, 2022, 04:43:50 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on August 10, 2022, 08:30:42 AMRight, the goal of steps we're taking now should be to shore up domestic chip production for critical national defense and infrastructure industries. We should also take a bit of a global approach to trying to purchase and invest in chip production in non-Chinese/Taiwanese sources as much as possible. The perfect can often be the enemy of the good, we cannot insulate ourselves from the risks of Chinese domination of the chip market in case of a Taiwanese invasion, but that does not mean we should not even attempt to alleviate the problem. I'd note that something to remember is unless Taiwan were to capitulate bloodlessly, it is highly likely much of TMSC's assets would be damaged or destroyed in an all out war, and chip fabs don't get repaired in a few weeks or even a few months, they take years to get built.

This is yet another glaring fault of entrusting things of high national concern to the sole vagaries of the free market, there are probably good economic efficiency reasons so much of the world's chip manufacturing happens in Taiwan. But it is not good "industrial policy" (which the United States has lacked for over 40 years.)

Baring in mind that we run liberal economies that don't work in a top down, state chooses to build a factory, fashion...how is this done?

Tariffs on Taiwanese chips? Tax breaks for domestic producers? Carbon taxes for anything from the other side of the world?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2022, 05:01:34 AM
Quote from: Josquius on August 11, 2022, 04:43:50 AMTax breaks for domestic producers?

Or low interest loans. 

I hope that people keep in mind the next time Bernie Sanders mewls about corporate welfare that this kind of thing is what he is talking about.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 11, 2022, 10:50:33 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2022, 05:01:34 AMOr low interest loans. 

I hope that people keep in mind the next time Bernie Sanders mewls about corporate welfare that this kind of thing is what he is talking about.

As with any kind of welfare it's not generally the basic idea that's controversial. Usually it's the broad scope, specific implementation, and possibility of misapplication that's up for debate.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zoupa on August 11, 2022, 11:46:57 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2022, 05:01:34 AM
Quote from: Josquius on August 11, 2022, 04:43:50 AMTax breaks for domestic producers?

Or low interest loans. 

I hope that people keep in mind the next time Bernie Sanders mewls about corporate welfare that this kind of thing is what he is talking about.

While you're technically/semantically correct, that is definitely not the gist of what he's talking about. I'm pretty sure you know that.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 11, 2022, 11:56:06 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on August 11, 2022, 11:46:57 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2022, 05:01:34 AM
Quote from: Josquius on August 11, 2022, 04:43:50 AMTax breaks for domestic producers?

Or low interest loans. 

I hope that people keep in mind the next time Bernie Sanders mewls about corporate welfare that this kind of thing is what he is talking about.

While you're technically/semantically correct, that is definitely not the gist of what he's talking about. I'm pretty sure you know that.

Rather than Yi being intellectually dishonest, it is possible he really does not understand.  Given the positions he normally takes on economic matters, there is a lot of reason to think it is the later rather than the former.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 11, 2022, 12:34:54 PM
Yi is right about Bernie's position: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/prepared-remarks-sanders-files-amendment-on-microchip-legislation-to-restrict-blank-check-corporate-welfare/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 11, 2022, 12:40:49 PM
I'm confused at these past few posts.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 11, 2022, 12:46:52 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 11, 2022, 12:34:54 PMYi is right about Bernie's position: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/prepared-remarks-sanders-files-amendment-on-microchip-legislation-to-restrict-blank-check-corporate-welfare/


You give Yi's posts a charitable reading
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 11, 2022, 12:48:56 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 11, 2022, 12:34:54 PMYi is right about Bernie's position: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/prepared-remarks-sanders-files-amendment-on-microchip-legislation-to-restrict-blank-check-corporate-welfare/

To what degree do you think Bernie's objections are about accountability and ensuring the money is being used efficiently to pursue the national interest vs about not wanting to use money to support a strong domestic microchip industry at all?

Because I can totally see merit in "let's not throw billions of dollars at companies who'll just pocket them and just say 'national security' to shut down any questions." On the other hand, I think spending billions of dollars to actually ensure a strategically critical supply of microchips is very valid.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2022, 03:13:09 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on August 11, 2022, 11:46:57 AMWhile you're technically/semantically correct, that is definitely not the gist of what he's talking about. I'm pretty sure you know that.

You are wrong.  Please tell me the gist.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2022, 06:42:11 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 11, 2022, 12:48:56 PMTo what degree do you think Bernie's objections are about accountability and ensuring the money is being used efficiently to pursue the national interest vs about not wanting to use money to support a strong domestic microchip industry at all?

Because I can totally see merit in "let's not throw billions of dollars at companies who'll just pocket them and just say 'national security' to shut down any questions." On the other hand, I think spending billions of dollars to actually ensure a strategically critical supply of microchips is very valid.

Did you read the link?  He's pretty clear about what he objects to and what he wants changed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 11, 2022, 08:13:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2022, 06:42:11 PMDid you read the link?  He's pretty clear about what he objects to and what he wants changed.

I didn't, which is why I'm asking.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2022, 09:24:22 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 11, 2022, 08:13:21 PMI didn't, which is why I'm asking.

He objects to giving money to firms which are making profits and pay their CEOs large salaries.

His proposed amendment says that if the firms make a profit using this money, the government must be repaid a reasonable rate of return.  Also the firms may not buy back their stocks, offshore production, void union agreements, or interfere with union organizing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2022, 10:20:15 PM
I read the first couple of paragraphs of it.  Seem like Bernie is arguing that chip manufacturers should feel a patriotic duty to build some manufacturing capacity in the US.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zoupa on August 12, 2022, 12:35:36 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 11, 2022, 09:24:22 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 11, 2022, 08:13:21 PMI didn't, which is why I'm asking.

He objects to giving money to firms which are making profits and pay their CEOs large salaries.

His proposed amendment says that if the firms make a profit using this money, the government must be repaid a reasonable rate of return.  Also the firms may not buy back their stocks, offshore production, void union agreements, or interfere with union organizing.

So you do get the gist of it. What's objectionable here?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 12, 2022, 01:45:40 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on August 12, 2022, 12:35:36 AMSo you do get the gist of it. What's objectionable here?

You're the one raising an objection to my statement that Bernie considers this kind of spending corporate welfare, so you tell me.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on August 12, 2022, 11:21:14 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on August 10, 2022, 12:04:54 PMIirc both Belgium and the Netherlands have some advanced chip production but not in amounts that rival Taiwan. Not by a mile.

The US still makes about 10% of the world's computer chips, as well.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 19, 2022, 06:47:25 AM
Interesting that after the annual summer retreat for the leadership - and I think ahead of the twentieth party congress - to see Xi go to a revolutionary era monument in the north-east and do a speech on "common prosperity", while Li Keqiang went to Shenzhen and placed a wreath at the Deng memorial and made remarks praising "reform and openness".

To an extent it's obviously what you'd expect, in terms of that divide/focus, but still interesting to see it drawn attention to in that way.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 19, 2022, 12:16:53 PM
QuoteA Chinese-Canadian billionaire snatched in Hong Kong and taken to China in 2017 was sentenced to 13 years in prison on Friday, over a month after he was tried in secret in Shanghai.

Xiao Jianhua, who was worth an estimated $4.5-billion at the time of his disappearance, was found guilty of a number of financial crimes, including the illegal use of funds and bribery, the Shanghai No.1 Intermediate People's Court said in a statement.

His company, Tomorrow Holdings, was also fined 55 billion yuan (C$10.5 billion). The vast conglomerate has been slowly dismantled by Chinese regulators since Mr. Xiao's kidnapping in 2017, with various parts seized by the government or forced to close.

At its peak, Tomorrow controlled dozens of companies, including banks, insurers and online financial platforms, and was worth an estimated 3 trillion yuan (C$572 billion). Mr. Xiao's ownership of Tomorrow, through a variety of intermediaries, was in violation of "national financial management laws and regulatory regulations," the court said.

Mr. Xiao was found guilty of illegally collecting public deposits, using entrusted assets in breach of trust, illegally using funds and bribery. As well as the massive fine imposed on Tomorrow, Mr. Xiao was himself ordered to pay 6.5 million yuan, and the court said it would seek to recover "illegal gains" from his various crimes.

The court praised Mr. Xiao's admission of guilt and cooperation in "recovering stolen goods and restoring losses," and said his "meritorious performance" deserved a more lenient punishment.

More than 99 per cent of cases in China end in a guilty verdict, and mounting a proper defence is impossible due to the politicized nature of the criminal justice system. Defendants are often advised by lawyers to seek what amounts to an informal plea deal by cooperating with prosecutors and hoping for as lenient a sentence as possible.

While allegations of corruption and illicit dealings are not uncommon in China's cutthroat business and financial worlds, the precise reason for Mr. Xiao's sudden and dramatic downfall remains unclear.

Some observers have speculated the size of Tomorrow Holdings had alarmed Beijing, which has moved in recent years to shore up control over the business sector, reining in even companies as powerful as Alibaba and Tencent. Others have suggested Mr. Xiao was caught up in factional politics of some kind, as Chinese President Xi Jinping used a sweeping corruption campaign to crack down on enemies within the Communist Party.

A child prodigy who earned a scholarship at 15 to study law at the prestigious Peking University, Mr. Xiao first became successful selling computers, and cultivated a financial empire that gave him access to China's political and business elite. But he was also dogged by accusations that he acted as an agent or facilitator for officials who wanted to make business deals without public scrutiny, something he always denied.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW ADVERTISEMENT


In the dead of the night on January 27, 2017, Mr. Xiao was kidnapped from a luxury hotel in Hong Kong where he was living and ferried across the border to mainland China.

A naturalized citizen of Canada, Mr. Xiao also held an Antiguan passport and Hong Kong residency. The Canadian government made multiple attempts to gain access to Mr. Xiao after he was detained, but to no avail. This included being barred from attending his trial in July.

That hearing took place amid tight secrecy, with Mr. Xiao's name not appearing on any court dockets and officials refusing to comment. While multiple sources confirmed to The Globe and Mail that the trial took place on July 4, the Chinese authorities did not acknowledge it until the sentence released by the court Friday.

Nor has China ever acknowledged Mr. Xiao's Canadian passport. At a regular press conference in Beijing on Friday, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that "we don't recognize dual nationality" when asked about Mr. Xiao's citizenship, a response that was not included in an official transcript.

Mr. Wang referred other questions about the verdict to the court's statement. Global Affairs Canada did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Mr. Xiao's case.

Guy Saint-Jacques, a former Canadian ambassador to China, said it was "regrettable that Canada could not have access to him during his detention and could not attend his trial." He said he hoped Ottawa will "mount an effort with other countries to force China to recognize foreign citizenships."

Since the release of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor last year after over 1,000 days in Chinese detention, there have been hopes for a reset in relations between Ottawa and Beijing. The conclusion of Mr. Xiao's case, while embarrassing to Canada given its complete lack of access to him, may serve to remove at least one roadblock to this, though Mr. Saint-Jacques was skeptical about how much relations could improve.

"Let's recall that Mr. Xiao will be in jail for 13 years – and Canadian officials won't have access to him – we have four other Canadians on death row plus a large number of other prisoners in Chinese jails," he said. "It will also be difficult for relations to improve as we have learned a lot about China's aggressive behaviour and foreign policy in recent years, its interference in domestic affairs in Canada and the abysmal state of human rights in China, including in Hong Kong."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on August 19, 2022, 01:17:54 PM
Doesn't look like Mono's scheme of having multiple passports is quite the guarantee of an escape route he seemed to think it was.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 19, 2022, 01:31:37 PM
Got me reading up on Antigua passports there. 30th most powerful in the world and freely for sale at 100k a pop.
This sets off all kinds of questions.
Just why are nations being so open to Antigua when their citizenship is such a free for all
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 19, 2022, 01:36:42 PM
Quote from: Josquius on August 19, 2022, 01:31:37 PMGot me reading up on Antigua passports there. 30th most powerful in the world and freely for sale at 100k a pop.
This sets off all kinds of questions.
Just why are nations being so open to Antigua when their citizenship is such a free for all
For a lot of countries I think it's normally just a mirroring. If you're relatively relaxed/easy on people coming in then that tends to get reciprocated. I think certainly for Latin American countries they normally just copy the tourism requirements that are imposed on their citizens.

The West then add layers that disadvantage the global south below a certain income level. But it's not about things like how strict or not citizenship is.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 22, 2022, 06:18:55 AM
I know F.A about mahjong.
But this intrigues me nonetheless. A way to crack through the han uber culture and see regional differences on a map :w00t:

(https://miro.medium.com/max/1200/0*ZH2Ryk2XHKIb03H4.png)


(https://medium.com/the-physics-arxiv-blog/the-curious-link-between-online-gaming-and-chinese-regional-culture-f482a7946e50)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on August 22, 2022, 10:33:52 AM
But where do they stand in soda vs pop?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: CountDeMoney on August 23, 2022, 08:52:57 AM
Quote from: Josquius on August 22, 2022, 06:18:55 AMA way to crack through the han uber culture and see regional differences on a map :w00t:

Han set first.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on August 23, 2022, 12:36:13 PM
27 individuals punished for "ugly" math book illustrations 10 years after the books were first published

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/23/china-punishes-27-people-over-tragically-ugly-illustrations-in-maths-textbook
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on August 23, 2022, 05:39:31 PM
QuoteThe statement said the illustrators and designers were "dealt with accordingly" but did not give details.

 :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 23, 2022, 07:33:04 PM
Quote from: The Larch on August 23, 2022, 05:39:31 PM
QuoteThe statement said the illustrators and designers were "dealt with accordingly" but did not give details.

 :ph34r:

Fear is most effective when people are left to imagine what might happen to them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 07, 2022, 01:02:51 PM
On a happier China note, I found this story interesting.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/07/why-chinese-vase-valued-at-euros-2000-sold-for-euros-8m-france

Quote'A crazy story': how a Chinese vase valued at €2,000 sold for €8m
French auction house tells of build-up to bidding war that led to an expert losing his job and a seller being left 'traumatised'


In the 41 years of wielding the gavel at his auction house a stone's throw from the royal chateau at Fontainebleau, Jean-Pierre Osenat had never seen anything like it.

"This is a crazy story," he said. "Quite extraordinary."

The story has cost one of the auctioneer's experts his job, after a Chinese vase he declared an ordinary decorative piece worth €2,000 (£1,760) at most sold for almost €8m, nearly 4,000 times the estimate.

"The expert made a mistake. One person alone against 300 interested Chinese buyers cannot be right," Osenat said. "He was working for us. He no longer works for us. It was, after all, a serious mistake."


The extraordinary story began earlier this year when a French woman living abroad decided to sell furniture and various objects from her late mother's home in Brittany. Having entrusted Osenat with the sale, the vase – which had belonged to her grandmother – was packed up, dispatched to Paris and put in a "furniture and works of art" auction of 200 lots, none of which was valued over €8,000.

Last Saturday, the vase, a Chinese tianqiuping – meaning "heavenly globe'" and denoting the round base and long neck – stood on a display table at the Osenat auction room. The catalogue described it as: lot 36 "large tianqiuping porcelain and polychrome enamel vase in a blue-white style with globular body and long cylindrical neck, decorated with nine fierce dragons and clouds (mark under the base)". The 54cm by 40cm vase was noted as being in "good condition".

The estimated price, between €1,500 and €2,000, reflected the expert's view that it was a 20th-century decorative piece and not a rare artefact.


Osenat said his suspicions this might not be the case were raised when the catalogue went online and the pre-auction exhibition was swamped with 300 to 400 interested buyers 15 days before the sale.

"They came with lamps and magnifying glasses to look at it. Obviously they saw something," he said. "There were so many registrations [to take part in the auction online] we had to stop them. At that point we understood something was happening."

Initially, the auction house staff put the unexpected interest down to the passion of the French Chinese community for China's art and history.

Faced with overwhelming interest, auctioneers decided not to allow online bids and the number of buyers was limited to 30 – half in the auction room the other bidding by telephone, with each required to pay a €10,000 deposit to take part.

The tianqiuping-style vase attracted hundreds of interested buyers to a pre-auction exhibition.
The tianqiuping-style vase attracted hundreds of interested buyers to a pre-auction exhibition. Photograph: Maison Osenat
Almost as soon as lot 36 came up frantic bidding erupted. Osenat was conducting the sale of rapidly increasing bids – €100,000, €200,000, €500,000 – when someone shouted "Two million". By the time bids reached €5m, 10 buyers were still competing; by €7m only two remained.

When the gavel was finally brought down, to applause from the room, the final bid had reached €7.7m. With fees, the anonymous Chinese buyer will pay €9.12m.

Osenat said for the seller, who had moved abroad 15 years ago,the windfall came with problems and the amount would be "hard for them to come to terms with".

"The vase had been in her family for generations. She said they used to put flowers in it. She had lived with it for 30 years and never imagined it was worth that much," he said. "She's completely unsettled. If it had sold for €150,000 that would have been something, but €7.7m is something else. She's terrified of being in the press and quite traumatised by it."

The buyer bid by telephone and lives in China. It has been suggested that in addition to the vase featuring the dragon and cloud, a sought-after motif among east Asian collectors, some may have spotted a stamp of Qianlong, an 18th-century Chinese emperor, who is a sacred figure.

The expert, who was sacked and has not been named, is reported to be standing by his original valuation.

Cédric Laborde, the director of the auction house's Asian arts department, is still not entirely convinced the expert was wrong. "We don't know whether it [the vase] is old or not or why it sold for such a price. Perhaps we will never know," Laborde said.

"The valuation corresponded to what the expert thought. In China, copying something, like an 18th-century vase, is also an art. In this case I don't have an answer. Over the last few years there have been some surprises in auctions of Asian objects."

Osenat, whose previous record sale was the €4.8m paid in 2007 for the sword Napoléon Bonaparte carried at the Battle of Marengo in 1800, said he had faith in the auctioneer's hammer.

"The expert thought it was a 20th-century copy, a decoration, so we didn't change the estimation. In the end the market decided it was 18th century," he said. "I have confidence in the market. One expert said what he said ... but the real price is what the buyers decide."


Would love to see how this develops. Would be amazing if it turns out to be a fake afterall.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 07, 2022, 07:56:55 PM
My bet is that the appraiser was correct and the mob was wrong.  There are ways experts can sort through these kinds of things, though its possible that the appraiser simply didn't think the vase worth putting through those ways.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on October 07, 2022, 08:00:17 PM
I'd assume that someone paying that much would have sent one of those " lamps and magnifying glasses" people to appraise.  But who knows, rich people are weird sometimes. What's a few million when you have billions.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 13, 2022, 11:53:46 AM
Pretty amazing given heightened security for the party congress - protest banner displayed in Beijing:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe7bRDqVIAEHYUD?format=jpg&name=small)

Translation apparently:
QuoteOne read: "No Covid test, we want to eat. No restrictions, we want freedom. No lies, we want dignity. No Cultural Revolution, we want reform. No leaders, we want votes. By not being slaves, we can be citizens."

One video - tiny protest not worth noticing anywhere in the world, except Beijing three days before the party congress:
https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1580467557563215872

Incredible bravery.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 13, 2022, 12:02:24 PM
Mandate from Heaven slipping?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 13, 2022, 12:46:42 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 13, 2022, 11:53:46 AMPretty amazing given heightened security for the party congress - protest banner displayed in Beijing:

...

Incredible bravery.

Yup. High chance of destroying or losing your life over this kind of thing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 14, 2022, 10:56:29 AM
Twitter thread explaining how Biden's move yesterday has essentially paralyzed - and thus severely damanged - the Chinese semi-conductor industry: https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889341265469440

Basically (according to the thread) pretty much everyone with American citizenship working in the Chinese industry have resigned overnight, and major American companies have stopped doing any business with Chinese semi-conductor companies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on October 14, 2022, 11:49:36 AM
Quote from: Jacob on October 14, 2022, 10:56:29 AMTwitter thread explaining how Biden's move yesterday has essentially paralyzed - and thus severely damanged - the Chinese semi-conductor industry: https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889341265469440

Basically (according to the thread) pretty much everyone with American citizenship working in the Chinese industry have resigned overnight, and major American companies have stopped doing any business with Chinese semi-conductor companies.

I was not aware of this, what is it exactly that Biden did yesterday? What are the sanctions the guys in the Twitter thread talk about?

Btw, I found this quite ilustrative of the last few years:

QuoteOne round of sanctions from Biden did more damage than all four years of performative sanctioning under Trump.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 14, 2022, 12:05:30 PM
Basically (as I understand it) American companies and American nationals (and that includes a number of executives and scientists actually in China, many of whom resigned yesterday) are forbidden from doing business with or in China in areas related to high end chip manufacturing and research. And, apparently, Chinese industry relies heavily on both American know-how in its staffing and industrial inputs from American companies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on October 14, 2022, 12:39:31 PM
Good news. The emergence of the Chinese chip industry is a menace to Taiwan, amongst other things.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 14, 2022, 03:48:17 PM
I hope it gets the domestic attention in the US it warrants. Way too many idiots still think trump is the one who was tough on China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 14, 2022, 05:20:47 PM
Quote from: Josquius on October 14, 2022, 03:48:17 PMI hope it gets the domestic attention in the US it warrants. Way too many idiots still think trump is the one who was tough on China.

I wouldn't count on it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 14, 2022, 05:32:43 PM
Xi Jinping has frequently referred to the West as China's enemies.  It's probably no accident that these sanctions came down just before the Party Congress that is apparently intended to confirm him as China's emperor-for-life.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on October 15, 2022, 12:09:26 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 14, 2022, 12:39:31 PMGood news. The emergence of the Chinese chip industry is a menace to Taiwan, amongst other things.

Hmmm, could China see it as a Pre-WW2 Japan oil sanctions kind of thing though, and be more of a reason to make a move on Taiwan?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on October 15, 2022, 08:20:30 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 15, 2022, 12:09:26 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on October 14, 2022, 12:39:31 PMGood news. The emergence of the Chinese chip industry is a menace to Taiwan, amongst other things.

Hmmm, could China see it as a Pre-WW2 Japan oil sanctions kind of thing though, and be more of a reason to make a move on Taiwan?

Aren't those chip factories a marriage between the high-tech machinery and the skilled workforce; make the worker refugees and with a modest amount of damage/sabotage the plant is useless, where as the South Asian oil fields the Japanese went for could be re-built?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on October 15, 2022, 10:00:58 AM
That is indeed the flaw in that idea...but that only means the PRC needs to consider that risk.  Balanced with simple resource denial and every other factor they'd consider to justify grabbing Taiwan, they might still make a go at it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 15, 2022, 10:35:18 AM
The Prince podcast by the Economist - also the first podcast project they've had as their front page - on Xi is worth a listen.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 15, 2022, 11:12:37 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on October 15, 2022, 10:00:58 AMThat is indeed the flaw in that idea...but that only means the PRC needs to consider that risk.  Balanced with simple resource denial and every other factor they'd consider to justify grabbing Taiwan, they might still make a go at it.

For sure. There are three main factors I think:

- The fabs themselves, which I understand to be very delicate. While China could potentially seize them, the question is how vulnerable the fabs themselves are to damage  from a the companies, the Taiwanese government, hostile American action, or acts of resistance from individual or small group of Taiwanese guerillas.

- The skills needed to run the fabs (and continue pushing towards the cutting edge of development). As Biden's new sanctions appear to demonstrate, these may be non-trivial to source and maintain by a potentially isolated China.

- The process inputs - from raw materials (probably the least challenging thing to manage), to chemicals, processes, and complex component parts for both chips and machines. I understand chip development and manufacturing to be complex, highly international, and with a limited number of actors along a number of key stages.

This is based on a fairly limited knowledge, but I don't think controlling the fabs themselves is sufficient.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 15, 2022, 11:25:16 AM
Quote from: mongers on October 15, 2022, 08:20:30 AMAren't those chip factories a marriage between the high-tech machinery and the skilled workforce; make the worker refugees and with a modest amount of damage/sabotage the plant is useless, where as the South Asian oil fields the Japanese went for could be re-built?
I think the other complication is the tech side of it and my understanding is that while China's done very well at moving up the tech ladder - it is clear it's less further along than it had perhaps understood (or than the West understood). I think that's part of why there's been a purge/measures in the industry is because it is, from the party's perspective, a national security issue not just a useful industry.

Also I know there's stuff about the different types of chips I don't understand - so the Netherlands is a world leader in the really super-advanced stuff, Taiwan in its sector, the chip factory in Newport a Chinese company was tring to buy makes power silicon chips (which are really important - in every charger, most of the chips in an EV etc) which are really different from the Taiwanese or Dutch etc - and I'm sure there are others. They're all jumbled up in all the talk about this generally and I'd expect that actually China's technical ability and focus varies a lot within different types.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 17, 2022, 09:59:36 AM
Small in the context of everything with the party congress etc - but minor scandal in the UK.

There's been footage and eyewitness accounts from a protest of mainly Hong Kongers outside the China's Consulate General in Manchester -from local reporter:
QuoteBig story: Shameful scenes at the Chinese consulate

Top line: Chinese government officials in Manchester are facing calls for their expulsion from the country after videos emerged yesterday that show consular staff beating a protester and dragging him inside the grounds of the consulate.

What happened: The incident occurred during a peaceful protest outside the consulate in Rusholme by pro-democracy activists from Hong Kong. Around 30 minutes after the protest began, staff from the consulate appear to rush out of the gates and grab signs and placards made by the protesters. Videos taken at the event then show:
    A protester being pulled inside the gates by his hair, while a Greater Manchester Police officer attempts to pull him back.
    A group of men, some wearing protective vests and helmets, beating the protester inside the consulate grounds, before police manage to get him out.
    According to police, the man "suffered several physical injuries and remained in hospital overnight for treatment".


(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F46152750-953c-4e75-81e9-214ca0283a39_5136x3423.jpeg)
Staff from the consulate pull the hair of a protester at the gate. Photo by Matthew Leung/Chaser News.

Police say they are investigating "the assault of a man following a protest outside the Chinese Consulate in Manchester yesterday". They say that shortly before 4pm, "a small group of men came out of the building and a man was dragged into the Consulate grounds and assaulted. Due to our fears for the safety of the man, officers intervened and removed the victim from the Consulate grounds." The statement goes on: "Detectives from our Major Incident Team are investigating the incident and we are liaising with national policing and diplomatic partners. No arrests have been made and our ongoing and complex enquiries continue."

'Shock and concern': In a statement released at lunchtime today, Assistant Chief Constable Rob Potts said:
    We understand the shock and concern that this incident will have caused not just locally, but for those much further afield who may have connections with our communities here in Greater Manchester. A full and comprehensive investigation is underway by our experienced Major Incident Team detectives, and I can assure the public that all viable avenues will be explored to bring to justice anyone we believe is culpable for the scenes we saw outside the Chinese Consulate on Sunday.

The response: Last night, we asked both Andy Burnham and Manchester's council leader Bev Craig for a comment on the incident and continued to push them for a statement all morning. Manchester City Council eventually said it "would always condemn violence of any kind during a planned demonstration," but that it would be "inappropriate to comment further at this stage." Andy Burnham released the following statement just before we sent this briefing:
    What took place yesterday outside the Chinese Consulate in Manchester was deeply worrying and has no place in a city region like ours that prides itself on peoples' right to protest peacefully. Greater Manchester Police immediately started a full investigation and are in close touch with the Home Office and Foreign Office. It is important that the full facts surrounding this incident are established and for that we will need to wait for the investigation to conclude. However, on the basis of what I have seen, I want to make clear that it is never acceptable for peaceful protestors to be assaulted and those responsible need to be held to account for their actions.

National politicians, in contrast to their counterparts in Greater Manchester, reacted swiftly to the videos yesterday. Alicia Kearns MP, chair of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, has tweeted that the Chinese ambassador should be summoned and "if any official has beaten protesters, they must be expelled or prosecuted".

    Kearns also said: "The CCP [Chinese Communist Party] will not import their beating of protestors and denial of free speech to British streets."

    Former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith tweeted: "The UK government must demand a full apology from the Chinese ambassador to the UK and demand those responsible are sent home to China".


Eyewitnesses: This morning The Mill has spoken to two people who witnessed the incident first-hand. One of them, a 30-year-old man who goes by the name Luci, says he saw a group of men coming out of the consulate to grab the protest signs, one of which satirises Xi Jingping by suggesting he is trying to rule Hong Kong, Taiwan and Ukraine. Luci told us:
    Two of them were wearing riot gear — some kind of bullet proof vest and helmets. The others were plain clothed. They managed to get it [the Xi sign] inside the territory of the consulate and destroyed it.

    They tried to grab one of us inside the consulate, but the police managed to get everyone out. So none of us were grabbed inside before the gates closed. But the painting was already inside the territory.


Luci was taking photos when the incident took place. When the violence began, his first thought was: "I can't sit by and watch some of my friends and people get dragged into the Chinese territory. Once the gate is closed, they are within the Chinese territory and that's it."

(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4aad1173-16d8-42c2-8862-98182af323f6_1820x1212.jpeg)
A photo taken by Luci shows consulate staff just inside the gates.

The protesters: According to people we've spoken to, most of the people at the protest were from Hong Kong and came to Manchester in the past year or two via the BNO visa scheme. Earlier in the protest, they were told by a police officer that they were allowed to protest on the pavement as long as their banners didn't touch the consulate walls or block prams and wheelchairs from passing.

Consul general: It's been suggested by various Twitter users — including a reporter from the US news organisation Axios — that the smartly-dressed man seen in the videos with grey hair and a blue and red scarf (on the left of the first photo above) is Zheng Xiyuan, the consul general and the most senior Chinese official in Greater Manchester, a man who has met Andy Burnham on multiple occasions. The videos and photos show him dragging a protester by the hair. We put this claim to the consulate this morning but have not heard back yet.

    A consulate spokesperson told the BBC that protesters "hung an insulting portrait of the Chinese president at the main entrance".

    They went on: "This would be intolerable and unacceptable for any diplomatic and consular missions of any country. Therefore, we condemn this deplorable act with strong indignation and firm opposition."

Fear and anger: "I am very angry," Luci told us. "This strengthens our resolve to do this [protest] further. I'm quite shocked. How can they do that?"

(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96032932-ed4e-42e2-a0ca-665c19298fc2_4176x2789.jpeg)
Staff from the consulate approach the image of Xi Jinping on the pavement outside. Photo by Matthew Leung/Chaser News.

Another eye-witness, who is still going through the asylum process from Hong Kong, told us the actions of the consulate's officials have left him feeling scared: "I didn't expect that China would do this in front of UK and Hong Kong people. I'm really worried about it. I don't want to go out. I'm really scared of Chinese officials watching me."

The backstory: As we reported in a detailed long read last year, Greater Manchester's leaders and universities have become deeply enmeshed with China — working hard to attract Chinese students and businesses. "We've always had very good relationships with the Chinese consulate," a senior source at Manchester City Council was quoted saying in that piece, which reported that top council officials attend regular dinners and meetings at the magnificent Denison House in Rusholme.

A key question: It was at the gates of Denison House that yesterday's shameful incident took place, in which the officials of a foreign power are seen destroying protest signs and assaulting a demonstrator in plain view. What would have happened if the police officer hadn't intervened and the protester had been trapped inside the consulate's grounds? The key line from GMP today — "Due to our fears for the safety of the man, officers intervened and removed the victim from the Consulate grounds" — is a shocking line to read in a police statement in this country.

Bottom line: The thuggish behaviour of Chinese diplomatic officials yesterday is a major scandal that demands an urgent response. Local politicians and business leaders, both of whom have regular dealings with the consulate, should be urgently raising it with the consul general today, even if that comes at a commercial cost.

Again this is small in the general scheme of China, but I find the way that they assume a right to police the entire Chinese diaspora (including Hong Kong or Malay origin Chinese) really objectionable. Similarly there's a point in The Prince podcast I mentioned where the Economist correspondent (Australian of Chinese heritage, through Malaysia) where she talks about how she was targeted by state media and nationalist bloggers as a "race traitor" (using a slur tied to collaborators with the Japanese) for her reporting.

And it seems fairly unique - I can think of other regimes who monitor and police dissidents/emigres but I can't think of another regime that treats all people of Chinese descent as their remit like the CCP does.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 17, 2022, 11:52:04 AM
IMO the UK should expel Chinese diplomats over this. That's completely disgraceful.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on October 17, 2022, 07:10:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 17, 2022, 11:52:04 AMIMO the UK should expel Chinese diplomats over this. That's completely disgraceful.

IMO the UK government has a duty to arrest or expel the Chinese personnel involved.  You cannot allow thugts to claim diplomatic immunity without punishing the government protecting them as well as the thugs themselves. Adding a one-year suspension of the power to replace them is optional but recommended.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 17, 2022, 07:27:12 PM
I suggest the British police look the other way while Chinese-British storm the consulate and hold the staff hostage.

Is there something about Britain that makes thug regimes act like dick heads there?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 18, 2022, 02:51:40 AM
It reminds me of all those theoretical scenarios like what happens if somebody gets shot across a border.
Surely in order to have grabbed someone and dragged them into the consulate their hands at least had to have been in the UK-proper and its those hands that broke the law?
Or is it where your feet are that counts?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: ulmont on October 18, 2022, 09:25:10 AM
Quote from: Josquius on October 18, 2022, 02:51:40 AMIt reminds me of all those theoretical scenarios like what happens if somebody gets shot across a border.

Theoretical?

QuoteThere's no dispute on whether Jesus Mesa Jr. killed 15-year-old Sergio Adrián Hernández Güereca.

He did. And there's a video of it.

In 2010 Mesa, an on-duty U.S. Border Patrol agent who was at the border in El Paso, Texas, shot Hernández at least twice — once in the face. At the time, the boy, a Mexican national, was on the southern side of the border in Ciudad Juarez.

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/25/809401334/supreme-court-rules-border-patrol-agents-who-shoot-foreign-nationals-cant-be-sue
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 18, 2022, 01:27:09 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 15, 2022, 10:35:18 AMThe Prince podcast by the Economist - also the first podcast project they've had as their front page - on Xi is worth a listen.

Very disappointing.  Hours and hours about Chinese politics and not a single minute of funk.  False advertising.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 20, 2022, 05:29:09 AM
Quote from: Jacob on October 17, 2022, 11:52:04 AMIMO the UK should expel Chinese diplomats over this. That's completely disgraceful.
Second urgent question on this in parliament today. Government are saying the police are still establishing facts and they'll give an update next week.

If the police establish there are chargeable offences they "expect" China to waive the diplomatic immunity of the consulate staff. If that doesn't happen there will be "serious diplomatic consequences" - it'll be interesting to see what they are but it feels like it should be expulsions.

Especially as the consul general did this sit down with Sky News. Which doesn't really tally with the video footage, photos and eyewitness accounts:
QuoteChinese consul-general defends actions after being seen pulling protester's hair in Manchester
In a letter sent to Greater Manchester Police, Zheng Xiyuan stated that the banners being used by protesters featured a "volume of deeply offensive imagery and slogans", including a picture of the Chinese president with a noose around his neck.
Inzamam Rashid
Thursday 20 October 2022 09:14, UK

The Chinese consul-general accused of attacking a protester has denied the claims and said his alleged victim was "abusing my country, my leader".

Senior diplomat Zheng Xiyuan was pictured pulling Bob Chan's hair before yanking him into the Chinese consulate in Manchester.

Mr Zheng told Sky News that it was his "duty" and he was at the demonstration "peacefully".

(https://e3.365dm.com/22/10/1600x900/skynews-chinese-consul-general_5936670.jpg?20221019230850)
Image: Chinese consul-general Zheng Xiyuan was seen pulling a protester's hair

What happened outside and on the grounds of the consulate is now the centre of a diplomatic incident.

The pro-democracy protest by Hong Kongers started off peacefully but banners and posters, which the Chinese say they found deeply offensive, were torn down by officials including the consul-general.

That led to a violent clash which saw Bob Chan apparently dragged into the consulate grounds and beaten by its staff - leaving him with cuts and bruises all over his body.

But these claims have been refuted by Mr Zheng, who said: "I didn't beat anybody. I didn't let my people beat anybody. The fact is, the so-called protesters beat my people."


However, when asked about the hair-pulling incident, he said: "He (Bob Chan) was abusing my country, my leader, I think it's my duty."

Mr Zheng added: "I think it's an emergency situation - that guy threatened my colleague's life, and we tried to control the situation. I wanted to separate him from my colleagues - that's a very critical point."


'They used very rude words - unacceptable'

Asked why the peaceful demonstration turned violent, Mr Zheng claimed it was because of the "rude banners" that had been put on display.

In a letter sent to Greater Manchester Police, he stated the banners featured a "volume of deeply offensive imagery and slogans", including a picture of the Chinese president Xi Jinping with a noose around his neck.

"I think the most serious reason for this incident is because they used very rude banners. They used very rude words, unacceptable. Everybody never accepts these kinds of words," Mr Zheng told Sky News.

"It's not right to put such banners close to my gate. After I advised them to remove very politely, they refused."

'I was under attack'

In his letter, the consul-general also said he was disappointed police didn't do more to help and claimed one of the protesters grabbed a member of his staff "by the neck and refused to let go" during the ensuing scuffle.

"I was under attack by the protesters and my colleagues were under attack and at that time, we didn't receive any protection from the policeman, so we had to do something to protect ourselves," Mr Zheng said.

He added some of his staff were injured during the incident, with video footage showing a man allegedly from the consulate being kicked by protesters whilst on the floor.

"It's a very serious harassment for me, the consulate and China," he added.

Protester was 'kicked and punched'

The protester at the centre of the controversy, Bob Chan, fled Hong Kong to the UK for his safety last March, but explained how he thought he was going to die during the incident.

"I held onto the gate where I was kicked and punched. I could not hold on for long and was eventually pulled into the grounds of the consulate," he said.

"I'm shocked and hurt by this unprovoked attack. I'm shocked because I never thought something like this could happen in the UK."


But it did happen here, and it's now an issue on the agenda of the foreign secretary, James Cleverly.

It'll be down to police to decide if any criminal justice action is needed - and for the government to determine whether there are diplomatic consequences.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 22, 2022, 06:28:53 AM
This seems weird - Hu being made to leave the party congress while the media are there:
https://twitter.com/dansoncj/status/1583663702896967680?s=20&t=L7Y8cOtAQV_2UzT5ZcyfVA

Edit: This angle - set of cuts is even worse:
https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1583752083605684225?s=20&t=dn8OA4Q9YILMC2W2TDKH3w
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on October 22, 2022, 09:48:30 AM
It shows that even the highest-ranking, most honored persons are not safe from the wrath of the dear leader. Very effective.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 22, 2022, 11:35:44 AM
Yeah I'm guessing Hu and his patronage network presented on of the larger centres of power within the CCP not beholden to Xi. So taking Hu out is a strong signal that those folks should get on the Xi wagon immediately.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 22, 2022, 12:27:22 PM
That was my guess, but Bill Bishop noted that the CCTV broadcast on the congress doesn't include this (not surprising) but also does include shots of Hu in his seat next to Xi which seems a bit weird if there's some signal of a purge? :hmm:

Edit: And I thought this was an interesting summary/take on what the personnel shifts mean - I think Languish is fairly pessimistic on this so not many surprises:
https://twitter.com/ProfYangZhang/status/1583788208894414849
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on October 23, 2022, 10:04:40 AM
Surrounding himself with sycophants during what looks like to be a pretty challenging time for China is Xi falling into the usual autocrat's trap. My only fear is that at some point he's going to pull a Putin with Taiwan. Xi mismanaging the Chinese economy would have some pretty disastrous aftershocks, too.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 23, 2022, 10:08:02 AM
The Guardian says basically nothing to see here. The way he left with other senior people standing as a sign of respect and all that does backup the claim that it was just due to health reasons that he left. He is an old guy afterall.
Plus Xi doesn't need to purge him to get what he wants.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on October 23, 2022, 11:37:37 AM
Apparently to veteran (insert the Commie Chinese equivalent of) Kremlinologists the downfall of Hu Jintao was clear well before he was expelled, as he appeared in the congress with his natural grey hair showing, which is apparently a sign of being on the bad side of a power struggle within the high spheres of the party. It seems that access to hair dye, so you can appear in public with jet black hair, no matter how advanced your age is, is a sign of being close to the powers that be.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 23, 2022, 03:53:26 PM
Quote from: The Larch on October 23, 2022, 11:37:37 AMApparently to veteran (insert the Commie Chinese equivalent of) Kremlinologists the downfall of Hu Jintao was clear well before he was expelled, as he appeared in the congress with his natural grey hair showing, which is apparently a sign of being on the bad side of a power struggle within the high spheres of the party. It seems that access to hair dye, so you can appear in public with jet black hair, no matter how advanced your age is, is a sign of being close to the powers that be.

That's bizarre.  How would they stop the dude from bopping into a drug store and picking up a few jugs?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 23, 2022, 05:54:57 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 23, 2022, 03:53:26 PM
Quote from: The Larch on October 23, 2022, 11:37:37 AMApparently to veteran (insert the Commie Chinese equivalent of) Kremlinologists the downfall of Hu Jintao was clear well before he was expelled, as he appeared in the congress with his natural grey hair showing, which is apparently a sign of being on the bad side of a power struggle within the high spheres of the party. It seems that access to hair dye, so you can appear in public with jet black hair, no matter how advanced your age is, is a sign of being close to the powers that be.

That's bizarre.  How would they stop the dude from bopping into a drug store and picking up a few jugs?

Yeah. It sounds a lot more North Korean than modern China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on October 24, 2022, 07:36:42 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 23, 2022, 03:53:26 PM
Quote from: The Larch on October 23, 2022, 11:37:37 AMApparently to veteran (insert the Commie Chinese equivalent of) Kremlinologists the downfall of Hu Jintao was clear well before he was expelled, as he appeared in the congress with his natural grey hair showing, which is apparently a sign of being on the bad side of a power struggle within the high spheres of the party. It seems that access to hair dye, so you can appear in public with jet black hair, no matter how advanced your age is, is a sign of being close to the powers that be.

That's bizarre.  How would they stop the dude from bopping into a drug store and picking up a few jugs?

Beats me (maybe the Party Barbershop keeps all of the best stuff?), but apparently it's a real thing. I read it's common for disgraced politicians to be kept imprisoned for long enough for their dye job to run out so they'll be all grey by the time they appear in public for their show trial or whatever. Grey hair is taken as a sign of either being retired or having been purged.

There are a few articles around about the obsession of Chinese big wigs with jet black hair even on their old age, while they're at the top. It seems that Xi as appeared in public a couple of times with some white hair showing and it created quite the turnmoil, being interpreted as a "populist move" to make him appear closer to the Chinese everyman and as a sign that he fears no internal threat.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 24, 2022, 12:46:59 PM
Yeah in my experience, Chinese folks dye their grey hair black as a matter of course. So it makes a lot of sense to me that showing your grey hair in public is a way to communicate that you're done with public life.

My guess - and it's just that, a guess - is that Hu's grey hair is an indication that the scene was choreographed somewhat with his knowledge. Maybe he didn't know that he was going to be made to leave (or maybe he did), but he did know - and had agreed to (under whatever pressure) - to appear and show that he was no longer a factor.

Some sort of "Comrade Hu, we know you are not opposing Chairman Xi's necessary and [series of pompous adjectives] program, but there are those who see you as a symbol of opposition to him. It would be best for the Party if you could signal to those misguided individuals - whom you obviously do not encourage - that you are not going to contest Xi's leadership."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 24, 2022, 01:03:50 PM
Quote from: Josquius on October 23, 2022, 05:54:57 PMYeah. It sounds a lot more North Korean than modern China.

Recently I have been getting the feeling that the Chinese looked over at North Korea and thought "yes...this...this is what we want for China." They have been doing everything to mimic them recently. Down to appointing what seems to me is basically a Xi monarchy. Granted Xi has no sons, which to me is the only reason to not despair.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 24, 2022, 01:07:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 24, 2022, 12:46:59 PMYeah in my experience, Chinese folks dye their grey hair black as a matter of course

Really? Because in most pictures of Xi I see he has grey stripes on his hair.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Xi_Jinping_2019.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 24, 2022, 01:49:28 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 24, 2022, 01:07:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 24, 2022, 12:46:59 PMYeah in my experience, Chinese folks dye their grey hair black as a matter of course

Really? Because in most pictures of Xi I see he has grey stripes on his hair.

I don't have much experience with Xi, to be honest. Most of the other old Chinese folk I know do dye their hair, however.

Larch suggested it's perceived as a "populist move", which may make sense.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 24, 2022, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 24, 2022, 01:03:50 PMRecently I have been getting the feeling that the Chinese looked over at North Korea and thought "yes...this...this is what we want for China." They have been doing everything to mimic them recently. Down to appointing what seems to me is basically a Xi monarchy. Granted Xi has no sons, which to me is the only reason to not despair.

The CCP maybe. I don't think the broader Chinese population think of North Korea as something other than the butt of jokes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on October 24, 2022, 01:55:08 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 24, 2022, 01:07:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on October 24, 2022, 12:46:59 PMYeah in my experience, Chinese folks dye their grey hair black as a matter of course

Really? Because in most pictures of Xi I see he has grey stripes on his hair.

I mentioned that on my post. Apparently those few whisps of white hair that he has only appeared in public with in the last few years produced quite the turnmoil in China and all kinds of tea leaves reading on what they could mean.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 24, 2022, 02:03:10 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 24, 2022, 01:03:50 PM
Quote from: Josquius on October 23, 2022, 05:54:57 PMYeah. It sounds a lot more North Korean than modern China.

Recently I have been getting the feeling that the Chinese looked over at North Korea and thought "yes...this...this is what we want for China." They have been doing everything to mimic them recently. Down to appointing what seems to me is basically a Xi monarchy. Granted Xi has no sons, which to me is the only reason to not despair.

he's probably still capable at making sons....
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 25, 2022, 02:10:36 PM
On policing Chinese overseas including the Chinese (and other ethnic groups) diaspora:
QuoteVeerle Nouwens 温丽玉
@VeerleNouwens
Dutch news reporting that the Dutch MFA has confirmed the apparent existence of two illegal Chinese police stations in NL - one in Rotterdam and one in Amsterdam - that have been in operation since 2018.

Story in Dutch - but I think there's been similar stories in a couple of other European countries.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on October 25, 2022, 07:12:20 PM
How is that possible?  How do you have illegal police stations in other countries?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on October 25, 2022, 08:21:22 PM
I would guess you send some cops over on diplomatic cover, with the job of going around and checking up on your own expats and maybe kidnap/interrogate as necessary.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on October 26, 2022, 07:51:17 AM
Well, today a Catalan newspaper is running an investigative piece exposing two of those "police stations" in Barcelona and Manresa (a town in central Catalonia). Overall, Spain would have 9.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 26, 2022, 09:15:23 AM
I suspect the Chinese would actually have zero issue with this and frame it in terms of extra terratorial Europeans in the 19th century - because you know, it wasn't that this was bad behaviour that was the issue, its that china was on the weak end
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on October 26, 2022, 08:47:43 PM
Here is an english-language news report on it:

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on October 27, 2022, 04:24:01 AM
A report from an international NGO based in Madrid is claming that there are 9 of these illegal Chinese police stations in Spain, which have as their main task chasing dissidents and "convincing" presumptive fugitives to voluntarely return to China, but seem to also offer a series of administrative and diplomatic services to Chinese citizens. Worldwide they claim that there are at least 54 of these stations, mostly in Europe. Their quoted numbers are as follows:

- Spain (9)
- Italy (4)
- France, Portugal, UK & Canada (3)
- Netherlands, Czech Republic, Hungary, Brazil & Ecuador (2).
- Ireland, Slovakia, Germany, Greece, Sweden, Austria, Ukraine, Serbia, Argentina, Chile, US, Nigeria, Tanzania, Lesotho, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Cambodia, Brunei & Japan. (1)

Apparently as part of the same program within which these police stations were set up (originally claimed to be created to prosecute online fraud comitted by Chinese citizens outside the country) a group of 9 countries, mostly SE Asian, have been decreed to be off limits for Chinese citizens to settle or travel to without good reasons.

Here's the report, if anyone wants to check it: https://safeguarddefenders.com/sites/default/files/pdf/110%20Overseas%20%283%29.pdf (https://safeguarddefenders.com/sites/default/files/pdf/110%20Overseas%20%283%29.pdf)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2022, 04:40:25 AM
I wonder why we have so many more than other comparable Euro countries. Just checked and UK/France/Italy have much larger Chinese immigrant populations.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on October 27, 2022, 04:45:50 AM
Quote from: celedhring on October 27, 2022, 04:40:25 AMI wonder why we have so many more than other comparable Euro countries. Just checked and UK/France/Italy have much larger Chinese immigrant populations.

Maybe it's just that there's a local bias to the NGO that produced the report being located in Spain. They might have better sources and informants here than in other countries.

Either that or the Chinese community in Spain is super into dissidency.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on October 27, 2022, 04:54:17 AM
The few Chinese-born people I know in Spain dislike the CCP with passion, but consider the regime essentially invincible and something to be endured rather than fought. Hence them having migrated.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on October 27, 2022, 07:26:17 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 25, 2022, 07:12:20 PMHow is that possible?  How do you have illegal police stations in other countries?

That's a cold war classic, of kidnapping dissidents and using embassies and consulates to ship them back to the old country, as in to get rid of them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 05:43:44 AM
Very striking story - I think there's been similar stories in Australia and New Zealand plus the foreign police stations across Europe. I know in the UK there's been lots of MPs of all parties doing events with United Front front organisations, generally I think innocently, because they think they're a real organisation of the local Chinese community. But the money and the structure seem very reminiscent of the very concerted efforts by Chinese agencies to get into Australian and New Zealand institutions - I think Europe is possibly less of a priority than Pacific states.

Relatedly I think the UK government (under pressure from backbenchers) is moving to ban Confucius Institutes, there've been offers from Hong Kong and Taiwanese groups to replace them which I think would be a good idea.
QuoteCanadian intelligence warned PM Trudeau that China covertly funded 2019 election candidates: Sources
By Sam Cooper Global News
Published November 7, 2022

Canadian intelligence officials have warned Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that China has allegedly been targeting Canada with a vast campaign of foreign interference, which includes funding a clandestine network of at least 11 federal candidates running in the 2019 election, according to Global News sources.

Delivered to the prime minister and several cabinet members in a series of briefings and memos first presented in January, the allegations included other detailed examples of Beijing's efforts to further its influence and, in turn, subvert Canada's democratic process, sources said.

Based on recent information from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), those efforts allegedly involve payments through intermediaries to candidates affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), placing agents into the offices of MPs in order to influence policy, seeking to co-opt and corrupt former Canadian officials to gain leverage in Ottawa, and mounting aggressive campaigns to punish Canadian politicians whom the People's Republic of China (PRC) views as threats to its interests.

CSIS told Global News it could not answer some questions for this story. But the service confirmed it has identified the PRC's foreign interference in Canada, which can include covert funding to influence election outcomes.

The briefings did not identify the 2019 candidates. But the alleged election interference network included members from both the Liberal and Conservative parties, according to sources with knowledge of the briefs.

Global News was not able to confirm from the sources which cabinet ministers may have been privy to the briefs nor the specific timing that the information was reportedly shared.

Chief among the allegations is that CSIS reported that China's Toronto consulate directed a large clandestine transfer of funds to a network of at least eleven federal election candidates and numerous Beijing operatives who worked as their campaign staffers.

The funds were allegedly transferred through an Ontario provincial MPP and a federal election candidate staffer. Separate sources aware of the situation said a CCP proxy group, acting as an intermediary, transferred around $250,000.

The 2022 briefs said that some, but not all, members of the alleged network are witting affiliates of the Chinese Communist Party. The intelligence did not conclude whether CSIS believes the network successfully influenced the October 2019 election results, sources say.

CSIS can capture its findings through warrants that allow electronic interception of communications among Chinese consulate officials and Canadian politicians and staffers.

Sources close to this situation say they are revealing details from the 2022 briefs to give Canadians a clearer understanding of China's attacks on Canada's democratic system. Out of fear of retribution, they have asked their names be withheld.

In response to the briefing details, experts say the alleged interference points to weakness in Canada's outdated espionage and counterintelligence laws, which sophisticated interference networks run by China, Russia and Iran are exploiting.

Still, the 2022 intelligence asserts that China conducts more foreign interference than any other nation, and interference threats to Canada increased in 2015 when Chinese president Xi Jinping elevated the CCP's so-called United Front influence networks abroad.

The Prime Minister's Office (PMO) did not directly answer a series of questions from Global News, including whether or not Prime Minister Trudeau was briefed in 2022 on Canadian intelligence that alleged China had covertly funded a clandestine network of candidates in the 2019 election.

It also did not respond to a question on the need for tighter federal rules against foreign influence on Canadian politics.

"Protecting Canadians' security is our top priority. Threats, harassment, or intimidation of Canadian citizens are unacceptable, and all allegations of interference are investigated thoroughly by our security agencies," a statement from the PMO said. "As threats evolve, so must the methods used to address them. That is why the Prime Minister has given the Minister of Public Safety the mandate to improve collaboration between Canadian security agencies."

Conservative Party leadership did not respond to Global News questions by deadline for this story.

"We simply don't have a prosecutorial end game to deal with foreign interference," said Dan Stanton, a former CSIS officer who studies Chinese interference, but isn't privy to recent CSIS reporting. "The sophistication of the threat: it is not the guy with the fedora and black coat, like the old days with the KGB. The whole point of influence networks is that anyone can be used by a foreign state as a co-optee, or agent, or source."

Stanton and other experts told Global News that CSIS benefits from modernized counter-terror laws that have enabled the service to mitigate terror planning and funding networks since 9/11, but Canada's espionage laws are stuck in the Cold War era.

In April 2021, a private members bill in the House of Commons called for a foreign influence registry, but it did not become law.

Kenny Chiu, the B.C. Conservative MP who wrote the bill, was subsequently targeted by the CCP's election interference network, sources said. Chiu says his law would have compelled anyone working for hostile regimes, such as Russia and Iran and China, to declare their interests, and this transparency would protect Canada's democracy.

The Toronto Consulate and Chinese officials in Ottawa did not respond to questions from Global News about allegations in the 2022 briefs.

Money and influence

Interference on Canadian soil is orchestrated by the CCP's powerful United Front Work Department, which mobilizes large sections of society abroad to fulfill Chinese Communist Party objectives, according to the 2022 briefs.

United Front operations can include politicians, media, business, student and community groups, and are aimed at consolidating support for CCP policy as well as targeting critics and the causes of ethnic groups seen as "poisons" by the CCP, such as Uyghurs and Tibetans.

Several federal candidates from Canada's 2019 federal election met with China-based United Front Work Department officials, the intelligence alleges, but did not identify the politicians.

While Xi's United Front is not itself an espionage agency, intelligence briefs allege its networks in Canada facilitate interference operations by China's foreign espionage service, the Ministry of State Security.

The briefs also reported that Xi's United Front operates through Chinese consulates in Canada, from which officials direct funds into Canada's political system, using CCP proxies.

The CSIS briefs also point to the 2014 imbroglio over Toronto District School Board's partnership with the Confucius Institute, China's controversial state-funded, culture-education program. Many parents, teachers and students opposed the involvement of these schools, which are guided by the United Front Work Department, according to the U.S. State Department.

According to the briefs, the Toronto Chinese Consulate allegedly transferred $1 million to unidentified proxy groups, which in turn organized protests to support the continued integration of the program into Toronto's district school board system. That effort ultimately failed when the TDSB voted to sever its ties to the organization.

But China's alleged United Front campaigns extend beyond financing to the co-opting of politicians and harassment of critics.

One of the more dramatic allegations from the briefs pertained to a pivotal February 2021 vote in the House of Commons, in which members would either support or reject a United Nations resolution declaring China's treatment of the Uyghur people a genocide.

The intelligence also alleges that, in the aftermath of the House vote, Chinese intelligence agents conducted in-depth background research into MPs who voted in favour of the resolution, declaring China guilty of genocide.

The agents studied the ridings of specific, targeted MPs in order to learn what industries and companies were present and whether these companies had economic links to China.

The objective was to judge whether China could leverage the local economies of Canadian politicians seen as the CCP's enemies, sources said.

In addition, it was alleged that before the September 2021 federal election, a small number of MPs reported they feared for their families and their reputations and believed they were being targeted in operations to hurt their election chances.

One of the MPs whom the CCP allegedly targeted, MP Kenny Chiu, said he believes Chinese agents succeeded in smearing him as a racist in WeChat and Mandarin-language media reports. As the member from Steveston-Richmond, Chiu had advocated for transparent elections in Hong Kong, voted in favour of declaring China's actions in Xinjiang a genocide, and tabled his April 2021 bill calling for a foreign influence registry.

"So ahead of the 2021 election, I was given a distancing treatment by Chinese-language media. And during the campaign people were shutting the door in my face. The messages I was getting were, 'Kenny Chiu is a racist. Kenny is Anti-Asian.'"

Some pundits, however, argued that Chiu swung his riding for the Conservatives in 2019 and the riding simply reverted to the Liberals two years later.

Chinese intelligence in the field

The 2022 briefs alleged that one official in Toronto's Chinese Consulate directed a 2019 federal election-campaign staffer to control and monitor their candidates' meetings. These efforts included preventing meetings with representatives of Taiwan, a democratic country that Beijing claims is a renegade province.

This kind of interference extends to elected officials as well, according to the briefs, which referred to instances in which clandestine operatives were placed alongside elected officials in an attempt to control the policy choices of federal MPs.

"I'm not surprised at all," said Harry Tseng, Taiwan's deputy minister of foreign affairs and top diplomat in Ottawa. "This type of activity is directed from Beijing in many consulates abroad. I think China can be that coercive because they have a very comprehensive list of Canadian politicians.

The 2022 briefs also detailed Chinese intelligence efforts to infiltrate, surveil and "mess with" Chinese diaspora communities.

Fenella Sung, a Hong Kong Canadian community leader in Vancouver, said she has long believed that Chinese intelligence has infiltrated Canadian diaspora groups, by using business inducements and "subtle psychological warfare."

She also believes that China's United Front controls and funds an "interchangeable" network of candidates and nominations in some British Columbia and Ontario ridings.

Turnisa Matsedik-Qira, a Uyghur-Canadian activist, said many in her community believe Chinese agents monitored and harassed them. She provided photos from her December 2021 Facebook posting that showed one alleged incident. In the post, Matsedik-Qira says she was protesting outside the Chinese Consulate in Vancouver when a van pulled up, and two men jumped out.

"I'm scared and worried for my safety. I think he is connected to the Chinese Consulate, for sure. The Consulate has many people in Canada working for China."

Coerced Repatriations

The 2022 briefs also shed light on the PRC's so-called Fox Hunt, a high-profile international campaign in President Xi's efforts to battle corruption and persuade economic fugitives to return to China.

National security experts argue the Fox Hunt is less about battling corruption and more about the CCP extending tentacles of repression into diaspora communities abroad and clamping down on rivals and dissidents.

The 2022 briefs alleged that one of China's Fox Hunt targets in Canada had connections to the Politburo, the CCP's elite inner circle of leaders.

Concern was raised in 2020 when a Chinese police agent worked with a Canadian police officer to repatriate an economic fugitive. In another coerced repatriation, Chinese police brought a Fox Hunt target's brother and father into Canada and would not allow them to return to China unless the economic fugitive also agreed to return, the 2022 briefs alleged.

A new report from the Spanish human rights NGO SafeGuard Defenders bolsters these suspicions, identifying three alleged secret Chinese police stations in Toronto, among 50 similar worldwide, which are used to repatriate Fox Hunt targets. SafeGuard Defenders cited Chinese state records that connect the Toronto locations to police bureaus in Fujian province.


Dan Stanton, the former CSIS official, and David Mulroney, Canada's former ambassador to China, said that Canada is more exposed than other Western democracies to China's interference, and yet as the United States, UK and Australia strengthen their counter-interference laws and ramp up investigations into Xi's United Front networks, Ottawa remains strangely inactive.

Global News also described some of the allegations sources say were briefed to Trudeau in 2022, including China's election interference and targeting of MPs and diaspora communities in Canada, to Dennis Molinaro, a former senior CSIS analyst and expert on foreign interference, who now teaches legal studies at Ontario Tech University.

Molinaro said if the CSIS intelligence warnings sources say were provided to Trudeau are confirmed as accurate, they raise concerns about why the government hasn't yet responded by tabling new legislation to counter the threats.

"The level of foreign interference activity you describe is serious and alarming," Molinaro said. "And if confirmed, the level of interference you describe says to me that foreign adversaries understand the legislative loopholes that exist in Canada and are taking full advantage of them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on November 08, 2022, 06:56:41 AM
A semi-serious Spanish newspaper is claiming today that many certified Chinese translators working in Spain regularly leak the documents they translate (like i.e. private contracts or - critically - immigration paperwork) to the CCP.

It may very well be true, but I'm also seeing a bit of a "yellow peril" thingie going on...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 12:24:59 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 08, 2022, 06:56:41 AMA semi-serious Spanish newspaper is claiming today that many certified Chinese translators working in Spain regularly leak the documents they translate (like i.e. private contracts or - critically - immigration paperwork) to the CCP.

It may very well be true, but I'm also seeing a bit of a "yellow peril" thingie going on...
Yeah I think that's a risk and I think the function of Confucius Institutes, for example, are really good - same with genuine local groups. The problem is that in recent years there's evidence that they are being used by CCP agencies - especially the United Front Work Department (and part of this is, I think, the extent to which the CCP assumes a role of policing/monitoring Chinese communities around the world).

It's why I hope if we do ban it that we work with Hong Kong and Taiwanese group to develop a non-specialised, non-academic forum for learning Chinese and about Chinese culture in British universities and schools. Admittedly the take on Chinese culture might be a little different.

I also wonder if this is part of the strategy from Xi is trying to reduce the space for non-political/apolitical exchanges with China so you reduce everything to the party-state and its external enemies and make everyone choose. Because I could be wrong but I feel like that was a strategy for the USSR and KGB when they were operating abroad was ultimately to groups trying to engage with Russia and Russian culture into having to accept some form of "fellow traveller"-ness or be grouped and tarred with reactionary emigre forces?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 12:35:56 PM
Confucius Institutes are not "good." They are an arm if the CCP's spying and political intimidation and corruption apparatus.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 12:38:21 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 12:35:56 PMConfucius Institutes are not "good." They are an arm if the CCP's spying and political intimidation and corruption apparatus.
The ostensible function of them - like British Council offices, Cervantes Institutes, Goethe Institutes etc - and they do run real classes. Totally agree that how they're actually used but it's why I hope we do work with Hong Kong and Taiwanese groups to set up an alternative in our universities that delivers the function without the CCP.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 01:40:38 PM
I'm not sure about anything coming out of HK at the moment being a real alternative to China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 01:45:43 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 01:40:38 PMI'm not sure about anything coming out of HK at the moment being a real alternative to China.
Yeah sorry not clear by Hong Kong groups I mean in the UK wanting to set up alternatives.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 08, 2022, 04:23:19 PM
I guess the trouble with getting decent Chinese people to do it is a big part of why governments are so happy with the prc doing it is that they pay for it.

It does seem it'd be a smart move for Taiwan and I doubt it could cost that much. But I'd imagine it would need to be much reduced with some countries prioritised over others.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 04:28:18 PM
Isn't the bloom off the rose of learning Chinese?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2022, 01:26:16 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 04:28:18 PMIsn't the bloom off the rose of learning Chinese?

Not for young people looking for a career in a national security related field. 
But for them Confucius Institute is not the best choice.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 16, 2022, 08:16:50 AM
Interesting clip of Xi and Trudeau:
https://twitter.com/AnnieClaireBO/status/1592784639474929665?s=20&t=sWfqMEQq9yvsa2NNG-dqbg

And this on the last bit (before Trudeau cut over it) from a thinktanker:
QuoteCharles Burton
@cburton001
Xi says 否則這個結果不好說了 which was not translated. It is a menacing threat to Trudeau: "otherwise it is hard to say what will happen"
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 26, 2022, 04:10:41 PM
Public protests in Shanghai, against Covid rules but including chants like "fuck the CCP" and "Xi step down."

Reportedly about 500-1,000 people, but still.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 26, 2022, 05:44:05 PM
A variety of reports coming in of people protesting in Beijing as well - universities, but also elsewhere.

Protest signs include completely blank pieces of paper and signs that say "you know what I want to say". The Internationale is being sung as a protest song. Online, people are supporting the protests by posting things like just saying "good good good good good good".

Obviously the Chinese state has a massive machinery of oppression in place, but this is still pretty noteworthy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on November 26, 2022, 07:15:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 26, 2022, 05:44:05 PMA variety of reports coming in of people protesting in Beijing as well - universities, but also elsewhere.

Protest signs include completely blank pieces of paper and signs that say "you know what I want to say". The Internationale is being sung as a protest song. Online, people are supporting the protests by posting things like just saying "good good good good good good".

Obviously the Chinese state has a massive machinery of oppression in place, but this is still pretty noteworthy.

Indeed, and the near total control opportunity afforded by Covid-19 lockdowns is one too many burdens for large numbers of ordinary Chinese to carry.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 26, 2022, 08:31:18 PM
Just saw a video of the protesters in Shanghai singing "Do you hear the people sing" from Les Miserables.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 26, 2022, 08:54:11 PM
Another video currently banned in China right now: pictures of world cup fans partying and chanting, with a Chinese woman voice over saying "guys guys! Please wear your masks! Don't you know it's a pandemic? Please wear your masks."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 27, 2022, 01:09:02 AM
Interesting thread from Cambridge academic on what seems distinctive in these protests:
https://twitter.com/wjhurst/status/1596722048717709312?s=46&t=tOrIV6EiwzNLXPuAqc8Drg
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 27, 2022, 03:18:59 AM
Video on Twitter 45 minutes ago of a mass of students Tsinghua University (one of the top 2 universities in China) chanting "we want freedom" and "rule of law and democracy." This is happening right now. It's on Weibo, though it'll probably be taken down soon.


Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 27, 2022, 03:25:43 AM
Quote from: Jacob on November 27, 2022, 03:18:59 AMVideo on Twitter 45 minutes ago of a mass of students Tsinghua University (one of the top 2 universities in China) chanting "we want freedom" and "rule of law and democracy." This is happening right now. It's on Weibo, though it'll probably be taken down soon.
Total aside from this thread - but it is an example of the sort of thing that Twitter is brilliant for and (as a Westerner) I can't think of an equivalent. If there's something you're interested in you can follow accounts to see others who know better all commenting, as well as actual material from other networks being re-posted. From these protests, to Ukraine or the Arab Spring, which is when I first got Twitter because everything was being posted there.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 27, 2022, 03:36:17 AM
So the Tsinghua thing...

The first video, a few hours ago: One girl was standing at the university, holding up a blank piece of paper. Some plain-clothes (maybe four or five) security officers came to hustle her away, saying "you can't be here." This was filmed, and bystanders were yelling "why are you doing this to her?" "she hasn't done anything"and "you're the ones making this a scene!" Several other students - girls - joined her.

Now: Hundreds or thousands of students are chanting, demanding - among other things - democracy, rule of law, and freedom at one of China's top two universities. Videos are circulating.

That one girl, in that first video... she - and her family potentially - are going to be in a lot of trouble. Probably the same for the handful of girls who joined her initial stance as well, if they can be identified.

I don't know if this pebble is going to roll down the mountain or not, but I hope for the best for those brave souls.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 27, 2022, 03:38:21 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 27, 2022, 03:25:43 AMTotal aside from this thread - but it is an example of the sort of thing that Twitter is brilliant for and (as a Westerner) I can't think of an equivalent. If there's something you're interested in you can follow accounts to see others who know better all commenting, as well as actual material from other networks being re-posted. From these protests, to Ukraine or the Arab Spring, which is when I first got Twitter because everything was being posted there.

Yeah, I picked a bad day to stop using my twitter account. So far I can rely on my wife, but if this takes off I may return.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 27, 2022, 11:50:26 AM
Protests across a number of large cities in China. A blank piece of white paper as well as songs and slogans focusing on the power of the people are common.

While there are reports (and video) of individual arrests and police action, there's no major crackdown reported... but given the trajectory, it's probably only a matter of time.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on November 27, 2022, 12:08:27 PM
Zero covid in the context of low vaccination rates for the older population in China, no acquired immunity to speak of in the general population and unending lockdowns, yeah there is no good way out for China. If they abandon their current strategy then what happens will probably be similar to what happened in Hong Kong in the beginning of this year. And Hong Kong had a strong health system.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FikTg8qWQAAUmr4?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 27, 2022, 12:48:20 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on November 27, 2022, 12:08:27 PMZero covid in the context of low vaccination rates for the older population in China, no acquired immunity to speak of in the general population and unending lockdowns, yeah there is no good way out for China. If they abandon their current strategy then what happens will probably be similar to what happened in Hong Kong in the beginning of this year. And Hong Kong had a strong health system.

Yeah for sure.

But at this point the demonstrators are chanting about wanting democracy and freedom, not about covid. The heavy-handed, cruel, and non-sensical covid controls were just the proximate cause.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 27, 2022, 12:57:13 PM
Another thing that happened recently and added to the stress - and I don't know how much this was reported in Western media (I didn't see it reported myself) - in Xinjiang there was a fire in a residential compound in Urumqi. Urumqi has been in lockdown for 3+ months. The fire fighters couldn't get to combat the fire because of lockdown measures and a number of people died (10 according to official accounts, but who believes those)?

The dead were all Uighurs and some government officials said some pretty shitty things (like how they weren't good enough at escaping the fire, in spite of lockdown measures, so it was sort of their own fault). This triggered protests in Urumqui - by Han Chinese, because the Uighur are too frightened from government repression to do anything.

China has a number of these incidents - where people die due the combination of strict measures, heavy-handed enforcement, and mischance - and news of them are circulating in spite of government controls.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on November 27, 2022, 03:00:11 PM
News video by Deutsche Welle:

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 27, 2022, 04:02:55 PM
Central district in Chengdu: https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1596951120588308481?t=7A3tkcOt-ocKLTSTGBNd1g&s=19

People are chanting "without freedom I'd rather die" (Hong Kong protester slogan), "we want freedom of speech", and "we want a free press."

Covid restrictions may have been the final trigger, but the issues are more fundamental.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Berkut on November 27, 2022, 04:07:24 PM
I don't know how to evaluate this. Obviously it is amazing to see happening, but....it just seems so hopeless. After Tiananmen, I just don't have much room for optimism.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 27, 2022, 04:18:06 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 27, 2022, 04:07:24 PMI don't know how to evaluate this. Obviously it is amazing to see happening, but....it just seems so hopeless. After Tiananmen, I just don't have much room for optimism.

Yeah. Same as Iran, really.

I nurture a small seed of optimism, but mostly it's admiration. That, and bearing witness.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on November 28, 2022, 03:05:13 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-63776816?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6383eaa9e7e8f473cfbfbcca%26BBC%20extremely%20concerned%20about%20arrest%20of%20BBC%20journalist%20in%20China%262022-11-27T23%3A13%3A41.998Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:caf91381-e2d4-41c0-93a0-6a35a0d166bb&pinned_post_asset_id=6383eaa9e7e8f473cfbfbcca&pinned_post_type=share

QuoteBBC extremely concerned about arrest of BBC journalist in China

Several hours ago, a BBC journalist covering the protest in Shanghai was arrested and detained by Chinese authorities.

The BBC has said it is extremely concerned about his treatment.

Ed Lawrence was beaten and kicked during his arrest, the BBC said. He was then handcuffed and held for several hours before being released.

A spokesperson said the attack on Lawrence while carrying out his duties as an accredited journalist was very worrying.

They said the Chinese authorities had given no credible explanation or apology for his detention.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 03:57:48 AM
Yeah.... That does seem to be where this is going. Conspiracy hat I wonder how organic it all even was originally.
Could it be the regime creating/using a given opportunity to flush out subversive attitudes and move back towards the totalitarianism xi desires?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on November 28, 2022, 04:31:20 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 03:57:48 AMYeah.... That does seem to be where this is going. Conspiracy hat I wonder how organic it all even was originally.
Could it be the regime creating/using a given opportunity to flush out subversive attitudes and move back towards the totalitarianism xi desires?

No.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on November 28, 2022, 08:08:58 AM
I think the West should stop talking about Taiwan and go back to the old position, that they're two governments in dispute about who rules China, one is Beijing the other it Taipei .

And just accurately describe what they are, so Xi would be called the "the Chinese dictator" and the president in Taipei " the Chinese president democratically elected by Chinese people".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 28, 2022, 11:20:26 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 03:57:48 AMYeah.... That does seem to be where this is going. Conspiracy hat I wonder how organic it all even was originally.
Could it be the regime creating/using a given opportunity to flush out subversive attitudes and move back towards the totalitarianism xi desires?

 :rolleyes:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 11:29:57 AM
Quote from: Jacob on November 28, 2022, 11:20:26 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 03:57:48 AMYeah.... That does seem to be where this is going. Conspiracy hat I wonder how organic it all even was originally.
Could it be the regime creating/using a given opportunity to flush out subversive attitudes and move back towards the totalitarianism xi desires?

 :rolleyes:
You don't see a hard crackdown and further backsliding as the most likely outcome?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 28, 2022, 11:44:05 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 11:29:57 AMYou don't see a hard crackdown and further backsliding as the most likely outcome?

Why would the Xi regime desire to enact a hard crackdown and further backsliding? If they did desire a hard crackdown and further backsliding, why would they need to trigger mass public protests to do so?

Why would a regime which is notoriously sensitive about appearances and displays of dissent - even by Chinese standards - manufacture incidents to make themselves look foolish and illegitimate? Why would they deliberately undermine the image of "benevolent paternalists" that they work so hard to cultivate at all times?

Do you think the protests in Iran were staged by the regime there as well?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 12:10:15 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 28, 2022, 11:44:05 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 11:29:57 AMYou don't see a hard crackdown and further backsliding as the most likely outcome?

Why would the Xi regime desire to enact a hard crackdown and further backsliding? If they did desire a hard crackdown and further backsliding, why would they need to trigger mass public protests to do so?

Why would a regime which is notoriously sensitive about appearances and displays of dissent - even by Chinese standards - manufacture incidents to make themselves look foolish and illegitimate? Why would they deliberately undermine the image of "benevolent paternalists" that they work so hard to cultivate at all times?
Legitimising crack downs is very much part of the standard dictator playbook. Things were very much looking that way in light of Hong Kong, Xi's new term, continued covid measures, and other factors in China.
I really wouldn't be surprised if his plans are sped up out of this.

QuoteDo you think the protests in Iran were staged by the regime there as well?
As well?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 28, 2022, 12:11:09 PM
Quote from: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 11:29:57 AM
Quote from: Jacob on November 28, 2022, 11:20:26 AM:rolleyes:
You don't see a hard crackdown and further backsliding as the most likely outcome?
I think that's working backwards. I don't think you can look at outcomes or results and work out causes from that.

I also don't think a harsh crackdown necessitated by a challenge to the legitimacy of the regime is helpful for Xi, even if it means stricter control.

Edit: There's definitely regimes that use agents provocateurs etc - but that's normally because they're already in a more unstable position (Tsarist Russia, South Africa spring to mind). But they didn't cause the underlying instability/attack on the regime's legitimacy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 30, 2022, 04:04:03 AM
Jiang Zemin has died. Strikes me as a risky element to throw into the current situation.

But I was just reading about the history of Chinese protests and how many of them seem to happen or coalesce around funerals. So I might just have Zhou Enlai in mind but I wonder if there's a bit of a risk especially as Jiang is, I believe, associated with a looser more open time and more collective leadership? :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 30, 2022, 09:37:11 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 28, 2022, 12:11:09 PM
Quote from: Josquius on November 28, 2022, 11:29:57 AM
Quote from: Jacob on November 28, 2022, 11:20:26 AM:rolleyes:
You don't see a hard crackdown and further backsliding as the most likely outcome?
I think that's working backwards. I don't think you can look at outcomes or results and work out causes from that.

I also don't think a harsh crackdown necessitated by a challenge to the legitimacy of the regime is helpful for Xi, even if it means stricter control.

Edit: There's definitely regimes that use agents provocateurs etc - but that's normally because they're already in a more unstable position (Tsarist Russia, South Africa spring to mind). But they didn't cause the underlying instability/attack on the regime's legitimacy.

I don't think its at all likely that the protests from the ground up are all the regime's doing.
I definitely wouldn't put it past them to use the opportunity to try and drag some dissidents out into the open however.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 01, 2022, 10:54:37 AM
A paper from the German ministry for economy was leaked that has a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 as likely scenario and discussed the impact on Germany. 2027 is apparently the 100th anniversary of the PLA.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on December 02, 2022, 11:29:30 AM
Quote from: Zanza on December 01, 2022, 10:54:37 AMA paper from the German ministry for economy was leaked that has a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 as likely scenario and discussed the impact on Germany. 2027 is apparently the 100th anniversary of the PLA.

I remember when covid began and we figured out a large chunk of our pharmaceutics (antibiotics especially plus insulin) was all made in China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 02, 2022, 03:38:22 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on December 02, 2022, 11:29:30 AM
Quote from: Zanza on December 01, 2022, 10:54:37 AMA paper from the German ministry for economy was leaked that has a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 as likely scenario and discussed the impact on Germany. 2027 is apparently the 100th anniversary of the PLA.

I remember when covid began and we figured out a large chunk of our pharmaceutics (antibiotics especially plus insulin) was all made in China.

That's a potential big worry.
I hope moves are afoot to friendshore it?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on December 04, 2022, 02:38:28 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on December 02, 2022, 11:29:30 AM
Quote from: Zanza on December 01, 2022, 10:54:37 AMA paper from the German ministry for economy was leaked that has a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 as likely scenario and discussed the impact on Germany. 2027 is apparently the 100th anniversary of the PLA.

I remember when covid began and we figured out a large chunk of our pharmaceutics (antibiotics especially plus insulin) was all made in China.

Not to mention the masks. :frusty:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 14, 2022, 03:36:44 PM
So it looks like the Xi regime has decided to do away with all anti-Covid measures - no lock-downs, no vaccine passports; but also no mask mandates and no testing anywhere.

Predictably, there are a lot of people who are getting really sick as Covid spreads like wildfire and the Chinese vaccinations are wearing off (or were less efficacious than hoped to begin with).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 14, 2022, 05:35:31 PM
That could turn very nasty very fast. Especially as their vaccine isn't efficient against more modern models of covid, there's no herd-immunity and there's been more than a few possible superspreader events (protests) already.
Whatever happens, this may backfire on Xi in full since he's the emperor resposible for everything.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 14, 2022, 06:00:33 PM
From what I've read, the Chinese vaccines are perfectly good - but they need three jabs and for whatever reason there's not been a massive campaign of getting jabs in arms. They focused on working age people so the stats on how many of the elderly are vaccinated is really alarming especially if you're looking at the full booster course. I believe vaccinations are now surging but where barely happening for months so there's a lot of catching up to do especialy with the most vulnerable.

The vaccine nationalism is also a problem because it means China can't just expand its programs by getting other vaccines from Western companies. I've no issue with countries bigging up their vaccines - I think it's probably quite good and helps enccourage people - but doing down other vaccines was a huge mistake in my view (as well as just wrong).

Sadly none of the vaccines are perfect and capable of stopping all deaths. So even countries that were really successful in zero covid approaches, like New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan and Japan have now experienced deaths around the 400-600 per million figure - it's still vastly better than countries that failed to stop it straight away. China is still in single digits per million.

There's really no easy way out for China. There's never been a national lockdown but I wonder if we might see China going through something like the European experience (but with fewer deaths because it's happening when vaccines are available) of vaccine drive with intermittent lockdowns not to try and get to zero covid, but to stop the risk of the health system being overwhelmed? Again I just don't see an easy or good way out :(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 15, 2022, 03:56:48 AM
I wonder whether party people and other well connected folks are vaccinated and what with...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 16, 2022, 11:14:47 AM
The consensus seems to be that the mRNA vaccines are superior.  I don't know enough of the science to form an educated opinion as to the accuracy of the consensus.  However, observing that wealthy Chinese are crossing borders to get western mRNA vaccines whereas no one in the US and Europe seems to be seeking out the Chinese vaccine is evidence favoring the consensus.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on December 16, 2022, 12:27:05 PM
I'm surprised the Xi regime has part backed down on the zero-covid policy.

Maybe they'll watch it rip through the population, say 'See We* were right' after all and re-institution harsh state control?


* Xi and the loyal CCP.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 16, 2022, 12:43:09 PM
Quote from: mongers on December 16, 2022, 12:27:05 PMI'm surprised the Xi regime has part backed down on the zero-covid policy.

Maybe they'll watch it rip through the population, say 'See We* were right' after all and re-institution harsh state control?


* Xi and the loyal CCP.

Yeah, that's option too. Let it rip for a bit, then uncle Xi comes back with even harsher repression.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: PJL on December 16, 2022, 01:17:33 PM
I'm surprised too but not inconsistent with the CCP responding to specific gripes to alleviate / divert focus away from the more generalized criticism of the regime. Basically a divide and conquer tactic.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 23, 2022, 03:37:14 PM
Read an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 23, 2022, 05:07:45 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 23, 2022, 03:37:14 PMRead an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

I think it was Zeihan who mentioned that 20 million would not be impossible. Relatively a drop, absolutely a near incomprehensible amount of people.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2022, 05:47:30 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 23, 2022, 03:37:14 PMRead an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

Did everyone stop wearing masks overnight?  I'm trying to understand what change in behavior would have led to this.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on December 23, 2022, 05:53:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2022, 05:47:30 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 23, 2022, 03:37:14 PMRead an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.

Did everyone stop wearing masks overnight?  I'm trying to understand what change in behavior would have led to this.

The stop of 3 years of strict lockdown at the first sign of an infection.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2022, 06:17:50 PM
Quote from: Tamas on December 23, 2022, 05:53:52 PMThe stop of 3 years of strict lockdown at the first sign of an infection.

But we didn't get 2.5% infection daily after we ended lockdown.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 23, 2022, 07:03:03 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2022, 06:17:50 PMBut we didn't get 2.5% infection daily after we ended lockdown.
We had far higher acquired immunity and didn't lift lockdown into omicron. There may also be a density factor but that seems high - especially as China's also wound down a lot of mandatory testing.

QuoteRead an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.
Yeah. New Zealand and Australia had a very successful zero covid approach that means their fatality rate over the pandemic is far lower than countries that failed to keep it out - but even with mRNA vaccines they have had around 500 deaths per million. In a country like China that's still a lot of deaths.

And that's assuming the healthcare system holds up.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2022, 03:14:08 AM
Quote from: Zanza on December 23, 2022, 03:37:14 PMRead an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.
I'm skeptical that the Omicron fatality rate really is 0.5%.  I think the numbers of confirmed cases these days are less reliable than they were even at the very start of the pandemic, because now people just test themselves with home kits.  I think at this point you'll get a better estimate just by looking at Covid deaths per population, since it's safe to assume that a large portion of population has had Omicron.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 24, 2022, 07:12:18 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 24, 2022, 03:14:08 AM
Quote from: Zanza on December 23, 2022, 03:37:14 PMRead an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day. That's like 35 million per day. Considering a fatality rate of maybe 0.5% in the West with multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, this will cause millions of deaths.
I'm skeptical that the Omicron fatality rate really is 0.5%.  I think the numbers of confirmed cases these days are less reliable than they were even at the very start of the pandemic, because now people just test themselves with home kits.  I think at this point you'll get a better estimate just by looking at Covid deaths per population, since it's safe to assume that a large portion of population has had Omicron.
Fair point. But then our numbers are probably not comparable to Cjona precisely because our population had multiple waves and mRNA vaccines, which means it is likely deadlier in China than it was in the West. But we will never know as the Chinese will not provide any figures.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 24, 2022, 10:58:18 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2022, 06:17:50 PM
Quote from: Tamas on December 23, 2022, 05:53:52 PMThe stop of 3 years of strict lockdown at the first sign of an infection.

But we didn't get 2.5% infection daily after we ended lockdown.

I don't know about the 2.5% number specifically, but reasons that Chinese mortality numbers may be higher than in the West are:

- less efficacious vaccine, targeted at earlier variants rather than Omicron and later.
- lower rate of vaccination (especially multiples) across the population.
- years of strict covid zero lockdown policies have resulted in lower natural immunity in the population.
- the PRC need to save face and comply with central directives increases the odds of inefficient and counterproductive decision making.
- there's a real risk the Chinese health system will be overwhelmed if the preceding items play out poorly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 24, 2022, 10:58:47 AM
Seeing reports that several provinces are telling health staff "come to work even if you're sick, no need to get tested."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 24, 2022, 12:22:08 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 24, 2022, 10:58:18 AMI don't know about the 2.5% number specifically, but reasons that Chinese mortality numbers may be higher than in the West are:

- less efficacious vaccine, targeted at earlier variants rather than Omicron and later.
- lower rate of vaccination (especially multiples) across the population.
- years of strict covid zero lockdown policies have resulted in lower natural immunity in the population.
- the PRC need to save face and comply with central directives increases the odds of inefficient and counterproductive decision making.
- there's a real risk the Chinese health system will be overwhelmed if the preceding items play out poorly.
It's also worth remembering that China never had a national lockdown. In a way I think the most likely risk is that they go through what Europe went in the first wave (with the very good news that they already have vaccines) of being forced into lockdowns on and off to stop health systems being overwhelmed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Iormlund on December 25, 2022, 02:58:25 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 23, 2022, 03:37:14 PMRead an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day.
.

That's not how it works. Spread is exponential, not linear. The original strain doubled the amount of infected hosts every two to three days. Omicron can do that at least daily.

So if 2.5% of the population is infected now, tomorrow 5% will be and the day after 10%. Eventually the virus starts running out of "fuel" and the wave ends. But China is still a few weeks from that.
And in the meantime the health system will collapse, since there are about 100 million unvaccinated Chinese (with no natural immunity either).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on December 25, 2022, 03:18:10 PM
Looks like it's starting to rip through China.

QuoteI just came back from two harrowing days traveling from emergency ward to emergency ward around Baoding in Hebei, one of the first areas hit by the current wave. The situation is very grim. ICU units totally overwhelmed.

https://twitter.com/dakekang/status/1606551661367132160 (https://twitter.com/dakekang/status/1606551661367132160)

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 25, 2022, 05:28:23 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on December 25, 2022, 02:58:25 PM
Quote from: Zanza on December 23, 2022, 03:37:14 PMRead an estimate that currently about 2.5% of the population are infected with Covid per day.
.

That's not how it works. Spread is exponential, not linear. The original strain doubled the amount of infected hosts every two to three days. Omicron can do that at least daily.

So if 2.5% of the population is infected now, tomorrow 5% will be and the day after 10%. Eventually the virus starts running out of "fuel" and the wave ends. But China is still a few weeks from that.
And in the meantime the health system will collapse, since there are about 100 million unvaccinated Chinese (with no natural immunity either).
The 2.5% might be the sustained rate of infection considering the factors you name that brake an exponential growth. Exponential growth does not have to mean doubling every day either.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on December 28, 2022, 06:39:07 PM
So. Apparently there's been a big rush to book foreign travel in China.

In response a bunch of countries putting mandatory testing in place. One plane found half its passengers infected.

Given how much of a petri dish China is... I do think there's value in a bit of caution here. Covid 23 et al.

BBC News - Covid in China: US imposes Covid testing for visitors from China
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-64111492
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on December 28, 2022, 07:33:25 PM
Quote from: Josquius on December 28, 2022, 06:39:07 PMSo. Apparently there's been a big rush to book foreign travel in China.

In response a bunch of countries putting mandatory testing in place. One plane found half its passengers infected.

Given how much of a petri dish China is... I do think there's value in a bit of caution here. Covid 23 et al.

BBC News - Covid in China: US imposes Covid testing for visitors from China
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-64111492

Who goes back to square one first? :unsure:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on December 29, 2022, 05:07:57 AM
If it gets put again the repercussions for China will be more severe though, I think. Especially as it seems they're again withholding data on the virus-trains.
Frankly, it would be best if the rest of the world puts in major restrictions on travel from China. Let them stew a bit more while protecting our own people.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on January 13, 2023, 12:16:49 AM
Going back to the topic of a Taiwan crisis, found this CSIS report published on Monday interesting:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan (https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan)

QuoteThe First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
January 9, 2023

CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan.
However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.

Download the full report here, a longish PDF, but it's an interesting read:
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ (https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ)


And here's their 3 minutes summary video on youtube:
https://youtu.be/bFDMh_dyshY (https://youtu.be/bFDMh_dyshY)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 13, 2023, 03:48:51 AM
Drone subs are something one rarely hears about though it strikes me they're what this report is solidly pointing towards as a key requirement.

I'm curious on the US losing global position point.... Since China lost more, who won?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on January 13, 2023, 07:13:03 AM
Turkey probably.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 13, 2023, 07:16:48 AM
Quote from: Josquius on January 13, 2023, 03:48:51 AMDrone subs are something one rarely hears about though it strikes me they're what this report is solidly pointing towards as a key requirement.
We're providing some minehunting automated subs to Ukraine - I think there's others western countries are providing more generally.


Edit: I think there was a video from an automated boat that attacked Russian ships in Sevastopol which was really fascinating. But it definitely feels like an increasingly important area? :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 13, 2023, 03:29:57 PM
Random Chinese related gossip - some years ago the Xi regime put a whole bunch of money into an initiative to help China advance rapidly in microchip manufacturing. Progress has been solid, with chips being revealed showing advances and showcasing Chinese industry's ingenuity.

... except, recently, it turns out that at least two of these new technology champions (who received lots of money from the goverment) were simply taking chips from old Nokia phones and from Samsung washing machines respectively. The Nokia guy left China before this was discovered. Not sure about the Samsung fellow.

In any case, media coverage of the great microchip initiative has dropped off significantly in China since this was discovered.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 13, 2023, 03:32:39 PM
The courage and nerve of people when committing cons and scams is amazing. If only people had similar audacity when advancing noble causes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on January 13, 2023, 03:36:49 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 13, 2023, 03:32:39 PMThe courage and nerve of people when committing cons and scams is amazing. If only people had similar audacity when advancing noble causes.

Being noble don't make you rich... unless your the kind of noble who had an ancestor that was a close personal friend of William the conqueror :D
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 14, 2023, 09:16:47 AM
QuoteAround 900 million people in China, or 64% of the population, had contracted COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic as of Wednesday, according to a report by local researchers.

A team led by Peking University assistant professor Ma Jingjing compiled the figure using private-sector estimates on infection rates, the Chinese newspaper Economic Observer reported. The estimates were based on online search data for key phrases, like "fever."

The new report also provided infection rate estimates for different provinces, including around 91% in Gansu province, around 84% in Yunnan province, and around 80% in Qinghai province.

Coronavirus cases have been surging across China since the government eased its strict zero-COVID restrictions last month. The country saw 3.73 million new infections and  21,300 deaths on Friday, British research company Airfinity estimated -- up from 2.42 million infections and 15,850 deaths on Jan. 5.

Cumulative deaths since December have topped 345,000, and are expected to reach 1.7 million by the end of April, Airfinity said.

Local governments in China continue to report rapid rises in infections. Hohhot, the capital of Inner Mongolia, said Thursday that its infection rate stood between 74% and 81%. Henan province on Monday reported an 89% infection rate.

The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has not published daily infections and deaths since Sunday, making it difficult to grasp the extent of the spread nationwide.

The World Health Organization has expressed doubts over the accuracy of data coming out of China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs hit back at these comments Thursday, with spokesperson Wang Wenbin saying Beijing hopes the WHO'S statements"reflect objectivity and impartiality."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 14, 2023, 05:44:51 PM
I always wondered what the point of the zero Covid policy was. Covid was well established in the world by that point. It seemed to serve no purpose at all but delay the inevitable.

The lockdowns way back in 2020 might have done something, but doing this shit in 2022? That was ridiculous.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on January 14, 2023, 06:09:51 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 14, 2023, 05:44:51 PMI always wondered what the point of the zero Covid policy was. Covid was well established in the world by that point. It seemed to serve no purpose at all but delay the inevitable.

The lockdowns way back in 2020 might have done something, but doing this shit in 2022? That was ridiculous.

It was the emperor's command, the only necessary reason.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 14, 2023, 06:29:24 PM
It made sense and was a really impressive policy to buy time for vaccines and to support a vaccine roll-out so you can then transition out of it. It feels like it became a bit of a fetish where zero covid was the purpose in itself.

And as Mongers says it became very tightly associated with Xi.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on January 14, 2023, 06:56:10 PM
Yeah, China's Zero Covid policy seems like one of those cases where a measure without the required follow-through does more damage than good.  If they followed up on the Zero Covid policy with widespread vaccination using effective vaccines, then this policy could actually have been the most effective policy in the world.  However, by botching the vaccination step, not only did Zero Covid policy just delay the inevitable at great cost, but it also set China up for the opposite of flattening the curve when they did let go of it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 14, 2023, 06:58:58 PM
Ok so one of those times when a decent idea quickly turned into a counter-productive ego thing. Sort of like iconoclasm in religion  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on January 24, 2023, 09:37:28 AM
Blizzard's contract with their Chinese partner has run out, and they've been unable to come to terms with them. Since having a Chinese partner is a requirement in the market, all Blizzard games are now officially offline in China (including WoW).

I've only skimmed the news articles, but I wonder how much of the breakup was state mandated, considering the government's crusade against video games.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 24, 2023, 11:17:46 AM
As I understand it, the breakup was largely because Blizzard demanded new terms that NetEase found too onerous.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on January 24, 2023, 12:38:51 PM
It's not all.

Diablo Immortal is still working.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 24, 2023, 12:39:20 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 24, 2023, 12:38:51 PMIt's not all.

Diablo Immortal is still working.

Yeah, IIRC Diablo is on a separate contract.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 24, 2023, 12:42:34 PM
Curious the collapse would  be on blizzards side. Usually it is the Chinese side asking too much
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 24, 2023, 01:11:54 PM
Quote from: Josquius on January 24, 2023, 12:42:34 PMCurious the collapse would  be on blizzards side. Usually it is the Chinese side asking too much

Who knows, but the Chinese side has clearly communicated that they've found Blizzard unreasonable, including blaming much of the breakdown on one (unnamed, but it's Bobby Kotick) jerk.

QuoteSpeaking very candidly on LinkedIn, Simon Zhu, spoke of his disappointment with the separation, stating that he himself had spent "10,000 hours" playing Blizzard games and claiming that he was "heartbroken" not only for himself, but for "all of the players who lived in those worlds". Most pointedly, Zhu singles out an unnamed "jerk" at Activision Blizzard for, in Zhu's opinion, causing damage to the relationship.

"As a gamer who spent 10,000 hours in the world of Azeroth, Starcraft and Overwatch, I feel so heartbroken as I will no longer have the access to my account and memories next year," began Zhu. "One day, when what has happened behind the scene could be told, developers and gamers will have a whole new level [of] understanding of how much damage a jerk can make."

"Feel terrible for players who lived in those worlds."

As we reported earlier, Blizzard Entertainment will suspend service to its range of IPs in the China region, formerly distributed by NetEase. This includes hugely popular titles such as World of Warcraft, StarCraft, Diablo, Hearthstone, and Overwatch. It has since been confirmed that mobile title Diablo: Immortal falls under a separate contract and will continue to be distributed by NetEase.

Blizzard Entertainment is currently looking for a new partner to carry its products in the very financially lucrative territory in the future.

QuoteNetEase has released a statement noting that it found the proposed extension from Activision Blizzard "rude and unreasonable, inappropriate and commercially illogical".

"As far as we know, Blizzard's negotiations with other companies during the same period were all based on a three-year contract period, responds NetEase. "Considering the non-reciprocity, unfairness, and other strict conditions attached to the cooperation, the parties could not reach an agreement in the end."

In addition, NetEase accuses Activision Blizzard of "endless, exorbitant demands, taking free rides, and taking all advantages without responsibilities."

QuoteThere is a definitive element of "He said, She said" at play regarding the initial split, as both parties have commented that it was irreconcilable differences with the other that caused the 14-year publishing deal to not receive an extension. Various sources have cited money, data handling, and IP proposals as lynchpins for the failed contract negotiations, with NetEase president Simon Zhu going so far as to refer to an unnamed Activision Blizzard executive as a "jerk".

https://www.destructoid.com/activision-netease-for-collapse-of-china-publishing-partnership/

That doesn't mean that NetEase isn't being recalcitrant due to government directives or simple greed, but the story is "irreconcilable differences", with NetEase's version of what those are being the one with the most traction.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on January 29, 2023, 10:15:11 PM
QuoteIn a memo dated February 1 but released on Friday, General Mike Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, wrote to the leadership of its roughly 110,000 members saying: "My gut tells me we will fight in 2025."
:hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on January 30, 2023, 12:36:39 AM
What is interesting in one of stories I saw on that is...that an official spokesperson confirmed the contents of the memo, instead of refusing to comment.  Which almost sounds like they wanted it to be public.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on January 30, 2023, 12:41:00 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 30, 2023, 12:36:39 AMWhat is interesting in one of stories I saw on that is...that an official spokesperson confirmed the contents of the memo, instead of refusing to comment.  Which almost sounds like they wanted it to be public.

Indeed, though perhaps Xi will take the 'hint' where Putin didn't?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on January 30, 2023, 12:15:01 PM
I wouldn't sweat a quote of a single short sentence taken completely out of context.  He could have been discussing his marriage, for all that quote tells us.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 30, 2023, 12:39:23 PM
:lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on February 02, 2023, 12:47:00 AM
US moving back into the Philippines:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-64479712 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-64479712)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 02, 2023, 01:03:22 AM
"West Philippine Sea" indeed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on February 02, 2023, 10:40:29 PM
Breaking News:

High altitude Chinese 'spy' balloon over Montana, White House has considered shooting it down.  :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on February 02, 2023, 10:46:18 PM
Quote from: mongers on February 02, 2023, 10:40:29 PMBreaking News:

High altitude Chinese 'spy' balloon over Montana, White House has considered shooting it down.  :hmm:

AP News has this:
https://apnews.com/article/chinese-surveillance-balloon-united-states-montana-47248b0ef2b085620fcd866c105054be#:~:text=A%20senior%20defense%20official%20told%20Pentagon%20reporters%20that,missile%20silo%20fields%20at%20Malmstrom%20Air%20Force%20Base. (https://apnews.com/article/chinese-surveillance-balloon-united-states-montana-47248b0ef2b085620fcd866c105054be#:~:text=A%20senior%20defense%20official%20told%20Pentagon%20reporters%20that,missile%20silo%20fields%20at%20Malmstrom%20Air%20Force%20Base.)

QuotePentagon: Chinese spy balloon spotted over Western US
By TARA COPP and LOLITA C. BALDOR
14 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. is tracking a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that has been spotted over U.S. airspace for a couple days, but the Pentagon decided not to shoot it down over concerns of hurting people on the ground, officials said Thursday. The discovery of the balloon puts a further strain on U.S.-China relations at a time of heightened tensions.

A senior defense official told Pentagon reporters that the U.S. has "very high confidence" it is a Chinese high-altitude balloon and it was flying over sensitive sites to collect information. One of the places the balloon was spotted was Montana, which is home to one of the nation's three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, provided a brief statement on the issue, saying the government continues to track the balloon. He said it is "currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground."



(https://storage.googleapis.com/afs-prod/media/626feee6d34d4fc8b35d4ce76f0a213a/800.webp)

QuoteADDS PENTAGON RESPONSE THAT IT WOULD NOT CONFIRM - A high altitude balloon floats over Billings, Mont., on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023. The U.S. is tracking a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that has been spotted over U.S. airspace for a couple days, but the Pentagon decided not to shoot it down due to risks of harm for people on the ground, officials said Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023. The Pentagon would not confirm that the balloon in the photo was the surveillance balloon. (Larry Mayer/The Billings Gazette via AP)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on February 02, 2023, 11:12:09 PM
Better than shooting it down would be to find a way to snag it for examination.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 03, 2023, 03:35:04 AM
Doesn't China have spy satellites?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on February 03, 2023, 03:41:14 AM
The best anti-balloon weapon is another balloon.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on February 03, 2023, 06:17:33 AM
Quote from: The Brain on February 03, 2023, 03:41:14 AMThe best anti-balloon weapon is another balloon.

Too late, the balloon has already gone up.  :bowler:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on February 03, 2023, 12:13:46 PM
They are testing an update of the circa WWII Japanese weapons platform.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on February 04, 2023, 06:23:33 PM
"Russia is the weather, China is the climate"


Heard a lord ruskin (?) say he got the quote off someone else.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on February 04, 2023, 06:29:18 PM
Breaking News:

They've shoot it down:

BBC News video page (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-64525258)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 04, 2023, 06:29:29 PM
Quote from: mongers on February 04, 2023, 06:23:33 PM"Russia is the weather, China is the climate"


Heard a lord ruskin (?) say he got the quote off someone else.
I think that variation has been used by the DG of MI5 and head of German intelligence - but I think it's from something else and I can't remember what :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on February 04, 2023, 06:38:33 PM
Quote from: mongers on February 04, 2023, 06:29:18 PMBreaking News:

They've shoot it down:

BBC News video page (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-64525258)

F-22 popped it. Will it count as a kill?  :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2023, 06:49:42 PM
Quote from: Legbiter on February 04, 2023, 06:38:33 PMF-22 popped it. Will it count as a kill?  :hmm:

Didn't they keep separate tallies of balloons and planes killed during WWI? 

It would be cool if they painted a balloon on the side.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on February 04, 2023, 09:31:14 PM
(https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/329377296_899076298210415_1427603965339345106_n.jpg?stp=cp6_dst-jpg&_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=BG3wtjj28lQAX_vqYqm&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&oh=00_AfDRUK5EkGZICGRV_CdY7xVd3qT85evpM2HeASy7tTGQXw&oe=63E4E753)

I do have to wonder is this a joke? Is China making fun of us? Who uses a spy balloon? What is this? 1862?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 05, 2023, 01:07:53 AM
Well apparently it's been going on for a while, so it may have worked okay. Basically it's a low cost alternative to a spy-satellite.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2023, 01:17:34 AM
Yeah, I can see how it's cost effective.  Radio the data back, write off the balloon.

Wonder how the folks who were backing the Chinese side when our P3 was rammed by a Chinese jet back in the Parodox days are framing this one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on February 05, 2023, 01:29:46 AM
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3288543/f-22-safely-shoots-down-chinese-spy-balloon-off-south-carolina-coast/

Quote[...]

The official said Chinese balloons briefly transited the continental United States at least three times during the prior administration.

[...]

Weird we never heard about that. :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 05, 2023, 05:35:18 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 05, 2023, 01:07:53 AMWell apparently it's been going on for a while, so it may have worked okay. Basically it's a low cost alternative to a spy-satellite.
Also I could be wrong but presumably they can also normally go higher than jets (but obviously wtihin the atmosphere) because they can be a lot lighter?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on February 05, 2023, 06:01:32 AM
How high does national airspace reach?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 05, 2023, 09:50:18 AM
Quote from: The Brain on February 05, 2023, 06:01:32 AMHow high does national airspace reach?

all the way to the nine dashed cloud?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on February 05, 2023, 11:54:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2023, 01:17:34 AMYeah, I can see how it's cost effective.  Radio the data back, write off the balloon.

The radio transmitter, power supply, and antenna are going to be major weight burdens given that this balloon would have to transit in the high frequency spectrum to get the data back to anywhere.

I think that it may have been just a collect and store system until it got back to within UHF range of China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on February 12, 2023, 02:46:03 AM
Another balloon shot over the Yukon.  Guess the new Chinese weatherman isn't any better then the last one.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 13, 2023, 11:01:27 AM
Quote from: The Brain on February 05, 2023, 06:01:32 AMHow high does national airspace reach?

"Outer space" which is not clearly defined under international law.
However, the PRC balloon was clearly within the limit however defined.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 15, 2023, 09:08:40 PM
The central government has recently cut medical expense accounts by 2/3rds (essentially the money is used to access family doctor equivalent services and purchase medicine and other things at pharmacies). Additionally reforms have moved certain treatments and consultations to hospitals (more expensive) and removed the coverage of certain medicines previously covered.

This has led to groups of seniors - not typically thought of as a segment prone to anti-government manifestations - to gather and protest the government (by singing "the Internationale") in Wuhan and Daliang.

https://twitter.com/fangshimin/status/1625927064351289344?t=ivqyad1pV8J2GNj_1MBxLA&s=19

https://twitter.com/whyyoutouzhele/status/1625814616856035328?t=9LRtN5hjKwHyhIfrhDpvtg&s=19
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 13, 2023, 06:02:42 PM
So Xi was unanimously re-elected on 10 March. I saw (via Adam Tooze) that apparently Chinese social media was flooded with a picture of another Chinese leader who also took office on 10 March: Yuan Shikai :lol: :ph34r:

Always impressed by the mad inventiveness of Chinese netizens.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on March 13, 2023, 07:06:09 PM
The skies also darkened on the day of Xi's ascent: https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/sandstorm-and-pollution-darken-beijing-s-idUSRTSH21NL

Not an auspicious sign.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 14, 2023, 11:43:08 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4DKz2Yn_As

Chinese Karen starts at 3:54.

One anomaly of Chinese authoritarianism is how much shit Chinese cops take from citizens.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on March 19, 2023, 06:55:02 AM
I'm not sure it's an anomaly.  Soviet cops legally had to take a lot of shit from citizens as well.  Of course, once you were in environment controlled by them, you were liable to get some extralegal treatment, followed by emergency medical or mortician treatment.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on March 24, 2023, 05:14:01 AM
Polygon had an article on what would happen if TikTok is banned by the US. Comments have a pretty strong contingent of those noting that it is xenophobia and America is worse than China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 24, 2023, 05:20:00 AM
What I'm not getting is how western money isn't chasing the obvious opening of tiktok without the dictatorship.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on March 24, 2023, 06:18:47 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 24, 2023, 05:20:00 AMWhat I'm not getting is how western money isn't chasing the obvious opening of tiktok without the dictatorship.

We overstate the importance of tiktok. Youtube got that market cornered really.

Tiktok should be banned.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on March 24, 2023, 06:19:36 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 24, 2023, 05:20:00 AMWhat I'm not getting is how western money isn't chasing the obvious opening of tiktok without the dictatorship.
Once again repeating my geriatric millenial cry of "bring back Vine!" :weep:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2023, 07:01:14 AM
It does seem Tik Tok lost out to Instagram.

Just a hunch.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on March 24, 2023, 07:06:41 AM
Every big platform copied Tik Tok's format, now Facebook, Youtube and Instagram all have a similar story/short/whatever feature.

That hasn't made Tik Tok any less popular, AFAIK.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on March 24, 2023, 07:20:03 AM
They are even tiktoking Spotify...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 24, 2023, 07:28:00 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on March 24, 2023, 06:18:47 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 24, 2023, 05:20:00 AMWhat I'm not getting is how western money isn't chasing the obvious opening of tiktok without the dictatorship.

We overstate the importance of tiktok. Youtube got that market cornered really.

Tiktok should be banned.

I think your age might be showing here.
I don't see the appeal of tiktok either. But for teh yoof apparently short form is where its at and youtube's half arsed efforts in that direction aren't really getting anywhere.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on March 24, 2023, 08:03:25 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 24, 2023, 07:28:00 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on March 24, 2023, 06:18:47 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 24, 2023, 05:20:00 AMWhat I'm not getting is how western money isn't chasing the obvious opening of tiktok without the dictatorship.

We overstate the importance of tiktok. Youtube got that market cornered really.

Tiktok should be banned.

I think your age might be showing here.
I don't see the appeal of tiktok either. But for teh yoof apparently short form is where its at and youtube's half arsed efforts in that direction aren't really getting anywhere.

Nah, Youtube says it has 50 billions daily views on shorts.  Last time Tiktok updated the figure it was only reaching 1 billion views.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on March 24, 2023, 08:29:54 AM
Strange tiktok is the one you always hear a big buzz about (even aside from the China business) then. Quality of impressions or just the media being silly?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on March 24, 2023, 05:27:20 PM
Talking of notching up viewing stats, Xi and Putin have now met 40 times.  :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 26, 2023, 10:52:41 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on March 24, 2023, 08:03:25 AMNah, Youtube says it has 50 billions daily views on shorts.  Last time Tiktok updated the figure it was only reaching 1 billion views.

That can't possibly be right; Tiktok has over 1 billion users, and average user is on over 90 minutes per day. It has to have far more than 1 billion daily views. 

My understanding is that tiktok has been cleaning instagram's clock, at least with the under30s. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on March 26, 2023, 11:27:23 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on March 26, 2023, 10:52:41 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on March 24, 2023, 08:03:25 AMNah, Youtube says it has 50 billions daily views on shorts.  Last time Tiktok updated the figure it was only reaching 1 billion views.

That can't possible be right; Tiktok has over 1 billion users, and average user is on over 90 minutes per day. It has to have far more than 1 billion daily views. 

My understanding is that tiktok has been cleaning instagram's clock, at least with the other 30s. 

It's possible because Tiktok doesn't seem to want to update it's figure.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 04, 2023, 05:33:21 AM
To the surprise of no-one:
QuoteMidjourney CEO Says 'Political Satire In China Is Pretty Not Okay,' But Apparently Silencing Satire About Xi Jinping Is Pretty Okay

Free Speech from the pretty-not-okay dept
Fri, Mar 31st 2023 10:46am - Sarah McLaughlin

As a rule, it's a good idea to be particularly suspicious of defenses of censorship that — coincidentally — materially benefit the people espousing them. In this case, the argument in favor of censorship is coming from founder and CEO of AI image generator Midjourney, David Holz. And Holz makes clear that he is willing to exempt Xi Jinping from the tool's capabilities to retain Midjourney's viability in China.

That's right: Xi Jinping, one of the most powerful and repressive government officials in the world and most deserving of political skewering and mockery will be one of the few exempt from it, at least where Midjourney is concerned. Some other terms are restricted, though Holz won't make the list public — "Afghanistan" for example, and now some depictions of arrests after the fake Donald Trump arrest fiasco — but Holz reportedly treats China as a unique case.

His quote about it is a doozy. From The Washington Post:
QuoteBut the year-old company, run out of San Francisco with only a small collection of advisers and engineers, also has unchecked authority to determine how those powers are used. It allows, for example, users to generate images of President Biden, Vladimir Putin of Russia and other world leaders — but not China's president, Xi Jinping.

    "We just want to minimize drama," the company's founder and CEO, David Holz, said last year in a post on the chat service Discord. "Political satire in china is pretty not-okay," he added, and "the ability for people in China to use this tech is more important than your ability to generate satire."

He wants you to simultaneously believe that his program is so important that it must do whatever is necessary to remain accessible to people within China, but so unimportant that it doesn't matter if fundamental political expression about one of the most powerful authoritarians in the world can't be created on it. It doesn't add up.

It's no surprise that a tech CEO would be willing to make trade-offs for the Chinese market. At this point, it's more surprising if one won't do so. But Holz's position is particularly careless and reveals an increasingly serious threat to free expression on and offline today: individual countries' censorship laws, particularly those of powerful countries like China, are setting global rules sometimes enforced by tech companies anxious to display their compliance. It's not just Midjourney's China-based users that can't satirize Xi Jinping — that rule applies to users everywhere, even in the United States.

Local laws are suddenly not so local anymore, and people like Holz have no qualms about aiding their illiberal international spread.

What this means in practice is that authoritarian leaders don't just get to subject their own countries to repressive laws limiting political speech. They also get to set the rules for global communities which are not, and should not be, under any expectations to abide by them. Zoom engaged in such practices in 2020 when it applied Chinese law to users outside mainland-China, shutting down online Tiananmen memorials held by users in Hong Kong and the United States. In response to well-deserved criticism, Zoom announced it would no longer allow Chinese law to dictate policies outside mainland China. Midjourney took notes, it seems, and learned a different lesson.

Holz's exact words were "the ability for people in China to use this tech is more important than your ability to generate satire," but his meaning was clear: Midjourney's interest in being accessible in China is more important than its users' interest in engaging in political expression.

This acquiescence signals to authoritarians of all sorts that if they want to control their image on the global internet, ramping up repressive efforts at home will be rewarded. As if they needed more incentive. Oversee a large enough financial market and censor enough people and you, too, may be able to control your reputation on the global internet.

Will Midjourney stop with just Xi Jinping? Or should we expect satire of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for example, to be next on the chopping block if Midjourney wants access to an increasingly unfree India?

Lastly, Holz may argue that he's helping Chinese citizens — and not just his own company — by attempting to ensure that Midjourney will be available in China. But his claim that he wants to preserve "the ability for people in China" to use this tech is paternalistic in a way Holz doesn't seem to realize. Chinese citizens, after all, may themselves want to use Midjourney to satirize their own government. Why does their freedom to satirize their ruler matter less than the freedom of the rest of the world to mock their leaders?

In fact, in the later months of 2022, protesters in cities across China held up blank sheets of paper in country-wide demonstrations to protest not just the country's restrictive COVID policies, but the many things that Chinese citizens aren't allowed to voice. This censorship is a result of oppressive and wide-ranging governmental control over what they can say in every forum, online and off. But it's reinforced when foreign companies, in this case a U.S.-based AI image generating tool, are all too eager to do their part in enforcing those restrictions — not just on the population legally bound by them, but on the rest of the world, too.

Companies like Midjourney may be the vanguard of new technology and the changing internet. But censorship is nothing new, and they won't change the game by willingly conducting reputation management for authoritarian governments.

That, one might say, is "pretty not-okay."


Sarah McLaughlin is Senior Scholar, Global Expression at the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression.

Listened to a really interesting podcast on China and Hollywood recently. They made the point that through the 2010s there was a lot of focus on films that could be screened in China. China has a quota on foreign films - there are ways around it if it's a local "co-production" - but ultimately needs to go through censors. Some genres were just not ever allowed really: Chinese censors don't like certain sorts of sci-fi, they don't like gore, they don't like ghosts or spiritualism, they don't like sexuality etc. But lots of others can succeed and Marvel had the most success.

But since 2020 there has been a huge shift from Chinese censors. The foreign films let in always reflect underlying politics and as US-China relations aren't great that means Hollywood are losing out. Films Hollywood previously would have expected could be shown are now being routinely turned down - so Marvel had six films on the bounce turned down. Part of this was also zero covid and as China is now open again some more films are being allowed back (in part, the theory goes, to get people back into the cinema).

The other pressure is that Hollywood is more and more focused on streamers which are just not allowed in China. China apparently made it very clear, very early in Netflix's existence that they will never be allowed in because China has their own fairly successful domestic streamers and have no intent in exposing them to competition from Netflix, Disney Plus etc (which, interestingly, frees up Netflix to make more Taiwanese Chinese language content).

Apparently because of all of this studios have basically decided to treat Chinese earnings as found money. It is no longer part of their budgeting or planning. All of that is done on the basis of not being able to release in China. If they can and they earn an extra $100million in China then that's just treated as an upside/free money.

I feel like it's a model that other industries should probably take note of - I suspect it's one they'll have to learn at some point or other.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: frunk on April 04, 2023, 06:38:38 AM
I wonder if Winnie the Pooh will also be banned.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 04, 2023, 06:59:33 AM
Quote from: frunk on April 04, 2023, 06:38:38 AMI wonder if Winnie the Pooh will also be banned.

This one will be, most likely:

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/74/Winnie_the_Pooh%2C_Blood_and_Honey_Film_Poster.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 08, 2023, 03:42:59 PM
Big state visit by Macron (accompanied by over 50 business leaders) to China - where the consensus is that he got played like a fiddle.

The trip was a little controversial within Europe so Macron added vdL who was always on a separate agenda. But the Chinese made it very clear. Macron was greeted with full military band and honours by the Foreign Minister, vdL at the passenger terminal by the Ecology Minister. The VdL read-out was also fairly robust from teh Chinese and EU perspective - for example she raised Taiwan, Macron's line was "I'm neither Taiwan, nor the United States".

The context is that VdL (again, I think, very impressively) gave a very strong speech on China recently and is apparently being depicted in the Chinese press as a US lapdog. VdL's message is consistent - no change to status quo on Taiwan, Xi needs to use his influence on Russia, the EU needs to de-risk from China and as relations have worsened the CAI is not a basis for a deal. I think she's right.

Macron on the other hand got very special treatment - it feels like China (like Russia before them) have realised he is susceptible to a bit of flattery. Macron noted that the lengthy meetings he had with Xi showed "France is not considered a country like any other". China reporters are noting that they can't remember a time under Xi that a Western leader got such positive wall-to-wall coverage, and Macron got huge crowds waving at all of the bits of his visit such as to Guangzhou University. Some of his Tweets from the state visit frankly have a whiff of Sino-Soviet friendship or Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai

There were joint meetings and some have said it was good cop-bad cop but most I've read dismiss that and say the messages were incredibly disjointed and the Chinese were really playing divide and rule.

At the end China and France announced a 50+ point action plan. From the people I've seen there were several French commercial deals signed on nuclear energy, wind, pork and cosmetics (not exactly "de-risking" trade relations) Aside from that the only concrete Chinese commitments were that Xi would call Zelenskiy (no specified timeframe) and a specific reference to the Zaporishya nuclear plant. The other big win was French recognition of Burgundy as a protected geographical indication (obvs). On the French side from analysts I've read there were more concrete (but still not huge) wins on access to French digital and 5G markets (Xi mentioned Huawei and some think Macron is walking back the block on them), space cooperation, formalised "dialogue" between PLAN and French fleet in the South Pacific. As former PM Jean-Pierre Raffarin (who was attending with Macron) put it to Reuters, "flattery works".

Within hours of Macron's plane taking off from China, China announced military operations around Taiwan.

I think VdL and the EU have a good and clear eyed strategy on China if member states are willing to commit. Sadly the combination of Scholz's (also very business heavy) visit and Macron's gives the impression that key member states are still looking at the economic upside and the partnership angle and, maybe for France, the classic thing of trying to distinguish their policy from the Americans.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on April 08, 2023, 05:08:26 PM
Chinese propaganda videos of their military/naval pre-invasion drills seem a bit better than those of the Russian border military exercise from before Feb 2022; question is will this help lull the Chinese into believing their own BS and risking a Tiawan invasion, something that's likely to be as successful as Putin's war?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 09, 2023, 11:27:29 AM
Like a fiddle :bleeding:

Good to see leaders learning their lessons from the invasion of Ukraine. Bit one step forward two steps back following France's revised strategy document which notes that Europe and the Pacific's security is "indivisible" and now these comments. As ever with Macron I'm not entirely sure his analysis is wrong but I feel like the way he's going about and his own comments get in the way:
QuoteEurope must resist pressure to become 'America's followers,' says Macron
The 'great risk' Europe faces is getting 'caught up in crises that are not ours,' French president says in interview.
By Jamil Anderlini and Clea Caulcutt   
April 9, 2023 12:39 pm CET

ABOARD COTAM UNITÉ (FRANCE'S AIR FORCE ONE) — Europe must reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview on his plane back from a three-day state visit to China.

Speaking with POLITICO and two French journalists after spending around six hours with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his trip, Macron emphasized his pet theory of "strategic autonomy" for Europe, presumably led by France, to become a "third superpower."

He said "the great risk" Europe faces is that it "gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy," while flying from Beijing to Guangzhou, in southern China, aboard COTAM Unité, France's Air Force One.

Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party have enthusiastically endorsed Macron's concept of strategic autonomy and Chinese officials constantly refer to it in their dealings with European countries. Party leaders and theorists in Beijing are convinced the West is in decline and China is on the ascendant and that weakening the transatlantic relationship will help accelerate this trend.

"The paradox would be that, overcome with panic, we believe we are just America's followers," Macron said in the interview. "The question Europeans need to answer ... is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction," he said.


Just hours after his flight left Guangzhou headed back to Paris, China launched large military exercises around the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which China claims as its territory but the U.S. has promised to arm and defend.

Those exercises were a response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen's 10-day diplomatic tour of Central American countries that included a meeting with Republican U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy while she transited in California. People familiar with Macron's thinking said he was happy Beijing had at least waited until he was out of Chinese airspace before launching the simulated "Taiwan encirclement" exercise.

Beijing has repeatedly threatened to invade in recent years and has a policy of isolating the democratic island by forcing other countries to recognize it as part of "one China."

Taiwan talks

Macron and Xi discussed Taiwan "intensely," according to French officials accompanying the president, who appears to have taken a more conciliatory approach than the U.S. or even the European Union.

"Stability in the Taiwan Strait is of paramount importance," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who accompanied Macron for part of his visit, said she told Xi during their meeting in Beijing last Thursday. "The threat [of] the use of force to change the status quo is unacceptable."

Xi responded by saying anyone who thought they could influence Beijing on Taiwan was deluded.

Macron appears to agree with that assessment.

"Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, 'watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there'? If you really want to increase tensions that's the way to do it," he said.

"Europe is more willing to accept a world in which China becomes a regional hegemon," said Yanmei Xie, a geopolitics analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. "Some of its leaders even believe such a world order may be more advantageous to Europe."

In his trilateral meeting with Macron and von der Leyen last Thursday in Beijing, Xi Jinping went off script on only two topics — Ukraine and Taiwan — according to someone who was present in the room.

"Xi was visibly annoyed for being held responsible for the Ukraine conflict and he downplayed his recent visit to Moscow," this person said. "He was clearly enraged by the U.S. and very upset over Taiwan, by the Taiwanese president's transit through the U.S. and [the fact that] foreign policy issues were being raised by Europeans."

In this meeting, Macron and von der Leyen took similar lines on Taiwan, this person said. But Macron subsequently spent more than four hours with the Chinese leader, much of it with only translators present, and his tone was far more conciliatory than von der Leyen's when speaking with journalists.

'Vassals' warning

Macron also argued that Europe had increased its dependency on the U.S. for weapons and energy and must now focus on boosting European defense industries.

He also suggested Europe should reduce its dependence on the "extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar," a key policy objective of both Moscow and Beijing.

"If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up ... we won't have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals," he said.

Russia, China, Iran and other countries have been hit by U.S. sanctions in recent years that are based on denying access to the dominant dollar-denominated global financial system. Some in Europe have complained about "weaponization" of the dollar by Washington, which forces European companies to give up business and cut ties with third countries or face crippling secondary sanctions.

While sitting in the stateroom of his A330 aircraft in a hoodie with the words "French Tech" emblazoned on the chest, Macron claimed to have already "won the ideological battle on strategic autonomy" for Europe.

He did not address the question of ongoing U.S. security guarantees for the Continent, which relies heavily on American defense assistance amid the first major land war in Europe since World War II.

As one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and the only nuclear power in the EU, France is in a unique position militarily. However, the country has contributed far less to the defense of Ukraine against Russia's invasion than many other countries.

As is common in France and many other European countries, the French President's office, known as the Elysée Palace, insisted on checking and "proofreading" all the president's quotes to be published in this article as a condition of granting the interview. This violates POLITICO's editorial standards and policy, but we agreed to the terms in order to speak directly with the French president. POLITICO insisted that it cannot deceive its readers and would not publish anything the president did not say. The quotes in this article were all actually said by the president, but some parts of the interview in which the president spoke even more frankly about Taiwan and Europe's strategic autonomy were cut out by the Elysée.

Imagine there'll be plenty of Americans looking at Russia building pipelines and increasing dependency in Europe, supporting the European led Minsk solution to the 2014 invasion, and Macron still talking about a Europe from the Atlanttic to the Urals - and noting that they've been more than happy to help out in Europe's crisis.

I'd also add the Euro was on its way to becoming a global alternative in a way that RMB hasn't - that ended in the self-harming response to the Eurozone crisis.

Edit: Incidentally, ,good on Politico for adding that editorial note. It is standard practice in much of continental Europe but should be transparently described - slightly mad that those are the comments the Elysee were happy with :ph34r:

Edit: Also "Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, 'watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there'" - could we try harder on Ukraine? I'm not convinced we're doing the absolute utmost... :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 09, 2023, 11:53:07 AM
Love how it's a conflict between the US and China over taiwan.
Taiwan itself is irrelevant.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 09, 2023, 11:57:28 AM
Just like Ukraine until last year.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on April 09, 2023, 11:58:11 AM
I am getting tired of Macron.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 09, 2023, 12:11:58 PM
Burning the golden calf, again?  :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: PJL on April 09, 2023, 01:11:49 PM
Well if Europe doesn't want to be entangled in a dispute between China and the US over Taiwan, I wouldn't blame the US to get too involved in the continuing dispute between Europe and Russia over Ukraine. No wonder the Chinese government has reason to believe the West is in decline, they may have a point after Macrons visit to China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on April 09, 2023, 01:26:41 PM
Quote from: Josquius on April 09, 2023, 11:53:07 AMLove how it's a conflict between the US and China over taiwan.
Taiwan itself is irrelevant.

And that Macron can speak for Europe.  France /= Europe.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 09, 2023, 02:40:22 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 09, 2023, 12:11:58 PMBurning the golden calf, again?  :P

I think you overestimate how much folks outside of France are invested in French politics.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 09, 2023, 02:49:06 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 09, 2023, 02:40:22 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 09, 2023, 12:11:58 PMBurning the golden calf, again?  :P

I think you overestimate how much folks outside of France are invested in French politics.

I think you overestimate  the number of people over here I was alluding to.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 09, 2023, 02:51:08 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 09, 2023, 01:26:41 PM
Quote from: Josquius on April 09, 2023, 11:53:07 AMLove how it's a conflict between the US and China over taiwan.
Taiwan itself is irrelevant.

And that Macron can speak for Europe.  France /= Europe.

The French still haven't accepted that they don't rule Europe (and that their last attempt was a disaster)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on April 09, 2023, 02:52:44 PM
Every time I think that the french are right about England they remind that France is worse.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 09, 2023, 03:01:01 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 09, 2023, 02:51:08 PMThe French still haven't accepted that they don't rule Europe (and that their last attempt was a disaster)
No but they're one of the only countries in Europe that have taken foreign and defence policy seriously for more than the last year - so they matter.

Thing that annoys me most - with that line about Ukraine - is that Ukraine and the response within Europe (again VdL has been excellent) could, I think, prompt serious European strategic autonomy. But it would require France to give up delusions of European strategic autonomy meaning France leading Europe and France (and Germany to a large extent) sharing the risk perception, fears, concerns of Eastern European partners as if they were their own. Without that happening a huge chunk of Europe will look at comments like this and think their best bet is to keep doubling down with the US - undermining the goal of autonomy and creating a risk for Europe depending on the course of US politics.

With France, in particular, I almost feel like part of it is that the alternative is too naive/not cynical enough. The West isn't perfect on this - but in general democracies are better than autocracies. That's entirely absent from Macron's comments - it's just US and Chinese power as if they're interchangeable, which feels admirably cynical in a way that would be admired in Paris but is nonsense. Similarly I feel like Polish, Baltic etc fears and commitment on Ukraine and Russia are just seen as a bit naive or overemotional, which they're not.

Edit: Basically I feel like there's a strong French instinct to be too cool for school :lol: :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 09, 2023, 03:36:44 PM
Sheilbh - I think you hit the nail on the head.  The idea of "European strategic autonomy" is not consistent with French strategic autonomy.  For the former to become a reality, the latter would have to be compromised. And that is not going to happen, certainly not while President Jupiter is in charge.

A broader point is that very concept of strategic autonomy is incoherent. Meaningful strategic choice is powerful constrained by the strategic environment. European states are free to take whatever decisions they wish and enter or leave whatever alliances they wish. But the reality of Russian power and aggression is there on the continent and can't be ignored. Finland didn't switch policy to joining NATO because of being compelled for lack of strategic autonomy; it did so as the rational exercise of such autonomy.

The situation with China is a little more subtle but only little more. Under Xi, China is proposing to overturn the existing international economic and security order, but it is proposing any clear alternative.  And the alternative it does present - surrendering national technological advantage for market access - is not (should not) be palatable.

I'll add one other point - I was among those who thought that the US and Britain handled the AUKUS situation poorly vis-a-vis France. However, this kind of diplomatic stunt underscores why there are reservations about including France in such security arrangements.  Playing both sides may be an exercise in "strategic autonomy" but strategic consequences follow from those choices.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: frunk on April 09, 2023, 03:45:46 PM
Perun's video from this week addresses this quite well.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 09, 2023, 04:04:51 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 09, 2023, 03:36:44 PMA broader point is that very concept of strategic autonomy is incoherent. Meaningful strategic choice is powerful constrained by the strategic environment. European states are free to take whatever decisions they wish and enter or leave whatever alliances they wish. But the reality of Russian power and aggression is there on the continent and can't be ignored. Finland didn't switch policy to joining NATO because of being compelled for lack of strategic autonomy; it did so as the rational exercise of such autonomy.

The situation with China is a little more subtle but only little more. Under Xi, China is proposing to overturn the existing international economic and security order, but it is proposing any clear alternative.  And the alternative it does present - surrendering national technological advantage for market access - is not (should not) be palatable.
And I think these are linked. It is not coincidental that the most hawkish European nations on China are (broadly) in Central and Eastern Europe - they are doing that because by identifying with America's security concerns they hope to induce America to continue to identify with Europe's. It's the basis of alliance.

I feel that imaginative step is missing with France (at least under Macron). The route to European strategic autonomy runs through Warsaw and is based on a powerful identification of Western Europe with the security interests of Europe's eastern fringe which is incredibly real. Then you can see the Poles and Balts maybe identifying France's concerns in the Sahel's or Eastern Med as their own. But until then it looks, I think, from Eastern Europe like an opportunity for "Old Europe" to tell "New Europe" what's really in their best interests.

QuoteI'll add one other point - I was among those who thought that the US and Britain handled the AUKUS situation poorly vis-a-vis France. However, this kind of diplomatic stunt underscores why there are reservations about including France in such security arrangements.  Playing both sides may be an exercise in "strategic autonomy" but strategic consequences follow from those choices.
I totally understand French anger at AUKUS and the way it came out.

But my view is it was based on a profound shift in Australia's perception of the risks in the Pacific and its environment. Whatever else, I think the Australian decision is pretty vindicated by these types of comments.

Edit: And incidentally I view European strategic autonomy as Europe's ability to defend itself and its interests even if America is no longer interested, I think Macron's positioning is that strategic autonomy is just equidistance between power blocs, which I think is delusional.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 09, 2023, 08:18:35 PM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 09, 2023, 02:49:06 PMI think you overestimate  the number of people over here I was alluding to.

:lol:

Point.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on April 10, 2023, 08:31:04 AM
I guess Macron is fairly alone in that ambition.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Hamilcar on April 10, 2023, 01:17:45 PM
The whole episode is a farce. America keeps saying that Europe needs to step up, take responsibility and develop its own capabilities.

Macron makes one trip to China and America is yelling "no, not like that!"

Make up your minds.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 10, 2023, 01:49:15 PM
Sure - America's saying that Europe needs to do all of that because they're providing security for Europe and the vast majority of material support to Ukraine.

The idea that Europe can step up and assert it's role as a typical French balancing power between the US and China while it isn't even capable in Europe is delusional.

Also it'd be fine if Macron set out what he thought Europe's (or France's) interests were. But he just talks about the US' and China's and that Europe's is to aspire to equidistance. In reality my suspicion is that Europe's interests will basically be broadly the same as America and that we'll end up doing the same uncomfortable splits as with Russia: increasing our economic dependence on one power while maintaining our security dependence on another (and in the end security will win).

Edit: And obviously the more Macron talks like this, while Europe doesn't have strategic autonomy even in its own neighbourhood - the more Eastern and Central European countries try to strengthen trans-Atlantic ties, including through China hawkery which reduces the ability to develop European strategic autonomy - especially as Poland's becoming like a France of Eastern Europe.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on April 10, 2023, 03:26:07 PM
As every delusional French leader before him, Macron might be living under the illusion that other european countries are actually willing to make a hypothetical European strategic autonomy basically a byword for French strategic autonomy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Legbiter on April 10, 2023, 04:11:25 PM
Quote from: The Larch on April 10, 2023, 03:26:07 PMAs every delusional French leader before him, Macron might be living under the illusion that other european countries are actually willing to make a hypothetical European strategic autonomy basically a byword for French strategic autonomy.

The French always talk a lot. French strategic autonomy in Europe will be a default the day France spends 5% on defence and forward deploys 2 divisions for the benefit of Eastern NATO partners. :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2023, 06:30:12 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 10, 2023, 01:49:15 PMIn reality my suspicion is that Europe's interests will basically be broadly the same as America

Disagree.  Europe will want to have nothing to do with fighting off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on April 10, 2023, 06:40:56 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2023, 06:30:12 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 10, 2023, 01:49:15 PMIn reality my suspicion is that Europe's interests will basically be broadly the same as America

Disagree.  Europe will want to have nothing to do with fighting off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Disagree.  Europeans seem largely to opposed to the idea of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and see such an invasion as very much against their interests.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 10, 2023, 07:28:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2023, 06:30:12 PMDisagree.  Europe will want to have nothing to do with fighting off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
No-one said anything about fighting off a Chinese invasion :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 11, 2023, 02:10:31 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 10, 2023, 01:49:15 PMSure - America's saying that Europe needs to do all of that because they're providing security for Europe and the vast majority of material support to Ukraine.

The idea that Europe can step up and assert it's role as a typical French balancing power between the US and China while it isn't even capable in Europe is delusional.



I suppose what Europe does have is economic power. And the economy is a lot more important to China than it was to Russia?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Larch on April 11, 2023, 04:06:48 AM
Taiwanese Air Force badge.  :lol:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/1ed0c5458775104595817e76f36b2c0bd967ea72/0_185_5557_3335/master/5557.jpg?width=620&quality=85&dpr=1&s=none)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on April 13, 2023, 02:12:08 AM
WTA going back to China. Guess they finally paid off enough people for them to stop pretending to care about Peng Shuai
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2023, 05:21:20 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu3AZfhFunM

Two Chinese US citizens arrested for running a Chinese police station in Manhattan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 17, 2023, 08:30:41 PM
Good.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on April 17, 2023, 10:41:49 PM
China seems to be rather selective with the concept of sovereignty, which supposedly is very important to it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 18, 2023, 12:43:10 AM
Which is why it might be interesting to call them an imperialist state t every opportunity. Maybe even call the occupation of Tibet and east turkestan a century of humiliation...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:25:42 AM
Read on Titter that the US worries that Chinese hypersonic anti ship missiles are a significant threat to US carriers. Credible?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on April 18, 2023, 06:15:16 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:25:42 AMRead on Titter that the US worries that Chinese hypersonic anti ship missiles are a significant threat to US carriers. Credible?

That's true as far as I know.  Only a few US ships have received the upgrade that allows for a reasonable chance of success against those missile.  However, China doesn't have the assets to effectively target the US carriers at a distance, and hypersonic missiles are as susceptible to decoys and jamming as any other guided weapon.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 06:36:19 AM
Quote from: grumbler on April 18, 2023, 06:15:16 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:25:42 AMRead on Titter that the US worries that Chinese hypersonic anti ship missiles are a significant threat to US carriers. Credible?

That's true as far as I know.  Only a few US ships have received the upgrade that allows for a reasonable chance of success against those missile.  However, China doesn't have the assets to effectively target the US carriers at a distance, and hypersonic missiles are as susceptible to decoys and jamming as any other guided weapon.

So it's a credible threat but not a knockout counter.

I guess there's no way to know outside very small circles, but would the US risks its carriers to go into range of these missiles?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 18, 2023, 07:18:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2023, 05:21:20 PMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu3AZfhFunM

Two Chinese US citizens arrested for running a Chinese police station in Manhattan.

Cops in Seoul busted a similar operation back in December.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on April 18, 2023, 10:15:30 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 06:36:19 AM
Quote from: grumbler on April 18, 2023, 06:15:16 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:25:42 AMRead on Titter that the US worries that Chinese hypersonic anti ship missiles are a significant threat to US carriers. Credible?

That's true as far as I know.  Only a few US ships have received the upgrade that allows for a reasonable chance of success against those missile.  However, China doesn't have the assets to effectively target the US carriers at a distance, and hypersonic missiles are as susceptible to decoys and jamming as any other guided weapon.

So it's a credible threat but not a knockout counter.

I guess there's no way to know outside very small circles, but would the US risks its carriers to go into range of these missiles?

I have seen it argued that the cost is also so prohibitely high that you stand a better chance of success by shooting a much larger salvo of regular missiles to overwhelm countermeasures.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on April 18, 2023, 01:33:05 PM
Quote from: celedhring on April 18, 2023, 10:15:30 AMI have seen it argued that the cost is also so prohibitely high that you stand a better chance of success by shooting a much larger salvo of regular missiles to overwhelm countermeasures.

In addition, it isn't clear that these missiles are as effective as Chinese sources want the West to believe.  For instance, it is claimed that the terminal phase reaches Mach 10.  At those speeds heat is going to significantly degrade sensors, and at that speed maneuverability will be minimal. 

That's probably why the Japanese seem to be seeking to develop a glider version to go slower but lower in the final phase.

Plus, these things haven't been deployed operationally, and there's many a slip between successful testing and successful actual combat-capable deployment.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:37:13 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 18, 2023, 01:33:05 PMAt those speeds heat is going to significantly degrade sensors, and at that speed maneuverability will be minimal. 

I guess when you're enveloped in plasma you're not seeing shit at any wavelength.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on April 18, 2023, 01:41:43 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 17, 2023, 08:30:41 PMGood.

the Globe is reporting (behind a paywall) that a cell phone recovered from one of the suspects provides evidence that a number of such stations exist in other countries, with several located in Canada.  The story goes on to explain that Canada lacks the same laws the US has to prosecute such activity. 

And the Canadian gov't has been dragging its feet on implementing the necessary legislation.  The further context makes the two earlier leaks from CSIS all the more understandable.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on April 18, 2023, 03:02:23 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:37:13 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 18, 2023, 01:33:05 PMAt those speeds heat is going to significantly degrade sensors, and at that speed maneuverability will be minimal. 

I guess when you're enveloped in plasma you're not seeing shit at any wavelength.
The one time I was enveloped in plasma I couldn't see anything.  I didn't even see the guys who work at the blood bank until after they threw me out.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on April 23, 2023, 01:20:07 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/23/france-and-baltic-states-condemn-china-envoy-remarks-over-ukraine-sovereignty

QuoteBaltic states condemn China envoy's remarks over sovereignty of ex-Soviet nations

Lu Shaye's comments raise fresh questions over China's role in brokering peace in Ukraine

France, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have expressed dismay after China's ambassador in Paris questioned the sovereignty not only of Ukraine, but all the former Soviet Republics including the Baltic states.

Lu Shaye's remarks in a TV interview late on Friday raise fresh questions about the faith the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has placed in China to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

Lu had been asked whether he considered the peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, part of Ukraine under international law.

"Even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have effective status, as we say, under international law because there's no international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country," Lu said
.

Lu's comments appeared to brush aside the sovereignty of countries, including ironically Russia, that formally recognised each other after the Soviet Union's dissolution and are represented at the United Nations and in European security organisations.

Asked if Crimea was part of Ukraine, he said the answer depended on one's position, and it was not so simple.

He added: "There is a history here where Crimea was originally part of Russia. It was Khrushchev who offered Crimea to Ukraine during the period of the Soviet Union".

France officially reacted by saying it heard his remarks with dismay and demanded to know if they reflected China's official position, "which we hope not to be the case."

"We stress our full solidarity with all of our allies and partners concerned, who have gained their long-awaited independence after decades of oppression," a French Foreign Ministry spokesperson said. "The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 is illegal under international law."

Ukraine was recognised "within borders including Crimea in 1991 by the entire international community, including China, at the fall of the USSR as a new member state of the United Nations", Paris said.

The French president's diplomatic adviser, Emmanuel Bonne, has been deputed to hold talks with China to explore a possible peace initiative, a move that has alienated many in Europe.

The Latvian foreign minister, Edgars Rinkēvičs, said the Chinese ambassador's comments were "completely unacceptable".

"We expect [an] explanation from the Chinese side and complete retraction of this statement," he said, adding there would be "a strong and unified response" from the EU at a meeting of European foreign affairs ministers in Brussels on Monday.

Estonia's foreign ministry summoned China's ambassador to Estonia to clarify the country's position over its country's sovereignty, calling Shaye's position "incomprehensible".

Estonia pointed out that since 1994 China had recognised the Budapest memorandum agreement under which Russia accepted Ukraine's borders and Kyiv agreed to hand over its Soviet-era nuclear weapons.

Lithuania's foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, said the Chinese ambassador's remarks demonstrated why European countries had little faith in China's ability to play a constructive role in brokering peace.

"If anyone is still wondering why the Baltic states don't trust China to 'broker peace in Ukraine', here's a Chinese ambassador arguing that Crimea is Russian and our countries' borders have no legal basis,"
he said on Twitter. He said the Chinese ambassador to Lithuania was being summoned on Monday to provide an explanation.

Vadym Omelchenko, Ukraine's ambassador to France, said in a Twitter post: "There's no place for ambiguity. Crimea is Ukraine. The Soviet empire no longer exists. History moves on."

Lu's comments appeared to contradict China's position paper on Ukraine issued in February, which pledges to uphold "the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries ... big or small".

In a related development, Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, on a visit to Portugal was forced to make some of his strongest criticisms of Russia's invasion, after appearing to be entirely neutral in the conflict on a visit to China last week.

In Lisbon, he said: "The war should not have started. Russia should not have invaded, but it did. The fact is that it happened. So instead of choosing sides, I want to find a third way, the construction of peace." Ukrainians protested outside the Brazilian embassy in Lisbon calling Russia a terrorist state.

Last weekend, Lula said Europe should stop supplying arms to Ukraine since it was prolonging the conflict, a position that would leave the aggressor and victim treated in the same way. He made his remarks shortly after visiting China's president, Xi Jinping.

The Brazilian president, offering himself as a peace broker, met the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, in Brasília last week but has never met any senior Ukrainians. Lavrov has praised Lula for "his clear understanding of the genesis of the situation".

The White House has accused Lula of "parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda without looking at the facts". The concern in Washington is that countries such as Brazil, eager to build their trading relationship with China, are determined to ignore the Ukraine issue knowing that China wants Russia protected from defeat.

The UK foreign secretary, James Cleverly, will set out Britain's approach to China in a major speech on Tuesday. No senior British figure has been to China since the country's economy opened up after Covid.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 23, 2023, 01:57:19 PM
Xi and Lula offering their services as "peace brokers", meeting with Russian officials but no Ukrainian representatives, is not very persuasive.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 23, 2023, 02:43:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 23, 2023, 01:57:19 PMXi and Lula offering their services as "peace brokers", meeting with Russian officials but no Ukrainian representatives, is not very persuasive.

Lula has a long history of pro-Putin neutralism (à la Bolsonaro), with a persistent false equivalency of Russia and Ukraine, so he got booed by Ukrainians (sizable community in Portugal) at the Brazilian Embassy in Lisbon during his state visit in Portugal.

(https://www.reuters.com/resizer/5RxlsJGJclwr2kyD2RtbAmihBLo=/1200x0/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/QLV25CYBFJIHTE4ZLRGDIAZZLE.jpg)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/angry-brazils-lula-ukrainians-protest-lisbon-official-visit-starts-2023-04-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/angry-brazils-lula-ukrainians-protest-lisbon-official-visit-starts-2023-04-21/)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on April 23, 2023, 08:47:06 PM
The problem with a third way peace scenario is that Russia already signed a treaty guaranteeing Ukraine's borders and territorial integrity that they did not respect. So what concessions can Ukraine possibly give to Russia? Any guarantee from Russia cannot be trusted by Ukraine.

So I am curious where Lula sees this third way.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 24, 2023, 12:52:29 AM
Probably sticking it to the 'gringos' and lining his pockets with that Xi money.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2023, 06:20:39 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 24, 2023, 12:52:29 AMProbably sticking it to the 'gringos' and lining his pockets with that Xi money.

Wrong language.  :P
Gringo in Portuguese just means foreigners (depreciative however), not Yanks.
Xi money is spot on however (Bolsonaro or Lula). Not to mention Putin's.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 24, 2023, 06:56:53 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2023, 06:20:39 AMGringo in Portuguese just means foreigners (depreciative however), not Yanks.

How bizarre that an expression based on the English "green go home" migrated to Portuguese to mean foreigners in general.

Closest thing I can think of how in Japan "arbeit" means part time job.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2023, 07:27:16 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 24, 2023, 06:56:53 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2023, 06:20:39 AMGringo in Portuguese just means foreigners (depreciative however), not Yanks.

How bizarre that an expression based on the English "green go home" migrated to Portuguese to mean foreigners in general.

Closest thing I can think of how in Japan "arbeit" means part time job.

It's more of a Brazilian thing anyways, which may explain the semantic drift.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 24, 2023, 07:30:24 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 24, 2023, 06:56:53 AMHow bizarre that an expression based on the English "green go home" migrated to Portuguese to mean foreigners in general.

Closest thing I can think of how in Japan "arbeit" means part time job.
FWIW I think the origin is believed to be "Griego" basically from "it's all Greek to me" which exists in Spanish and Portuguese. So no more bizarre than that term drifting to mean Americans.

I think it's only specifically Americans in Mexico. Certainly used for non-yankees in, say, Argentina.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 24, 2023, 08:46:09 AM
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2023, 06:20:39 AM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 24, 2023, 12:52:29 AMProbably sticking it to the 'gringos' and lining his pockets with that Xi money.

Wrong language.  :P
Gringo in Portuguese just means foreigners (depreciative however), not Yanks.
Xi money is spot on however (Bolsonaro or Lula). Not to mention Putin's.

I'm aware the Brazil is speaks Portuguese and that gringo is more for Spanish speaking south Americans.
I used it as a placeholder for a general anti-west sentiment that exists in the region, and in many places in the world to be honest. Makes you occasionally wish that these countries were made to enjoy a century of 'Russian peace' or Chinese harmony', with all the genocide that entails. They'd then understand that the Americans are not the worst in the line-up. And might very well be the best, historically.

Luckily the desire for that wish passes quickly, as this timeline is bad enough as it is.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on April 24, 2023, 09:09:18 AM
Quote from: SheilbhFWIW I think the origin is believed to be "Griego" basically from "it's all Greek to me" which exists in Spanish and Portuguese. So no more bizarre than that term drifting to mean Americans.

Like many other things in life, Greek has been substituted by Chinese in the current version of that idiom  :P

But yeah, "gringo" as "foreigner" has been recorded in Spanish since the XVIIIth century.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 24, 2023, 10:04:38 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 24, 2023, 07:30:24 AMFWIW I think the origin is believed to be "Griego" basically from "it's all Greek to me" which exists in Spanish and Portuguese. So no more bizarre than that term drifting to mean Americans.

Grego has other meanings, beside the Greek ethnicity obviously:
Quoteagradar a Gregos e Troianos
To please opposed parties

ver-se grego
To be in real trouble


QuoteI think it's only specifically Americans in Mexico. Certainly used for non-yankees in, say, Argentina.

As for gringo, not just Mexico, according to Dictionary of the Real Academia, among other meanings:

Quote1. adj. coloq. Extranjero, especialmente de habla inglesa, y en general hablante de una lengua que no sea la española. U. t. c. s.

3. adj. Bol., Chile, Col., Cuba, Ec., El Salv., Hond., Nic., Par., Perú, Ur. y Ven. estadounidense (United Statesian). U. t. c. s.


https://dle.rae.es/gringo?m=form (https://dle.rae.es/gringo?m=form)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on April 28, 2023, 06:09:26 PM
Fascinated by the Soviet colour footage of the foundation of the PRC - hadn't seen this in colour before:
https://www.arte.tv/en/videos/090602-004-A/mysteries-from-the-archives/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Duque de Bragança on April 29, 2023, 11:08:16 AM
Mystères d'Archives from ARTE and INA is interesting most of the, this video is one of the best.
Lost the habit of catching on TV due to moving schedules, but catch-up TV solves the issue.

PS: just saw they had a video on HK reverting to China. Tempus fugit...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 30, 2023, 11:17:32 AM
Apparently China is going through some large scale ecological devastation right now, converting what little remaining wilderness they have to farmland. This is apparently an attempt to increase food security in case of war.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on April 30, 2023, 12:17:57 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 30, 2023, 11:17:32 AMApparently China is going through some large scale ecological devastation right now, converting what little remaining wilderness they have to farmland. This is apparently an attempt to increase food security in case of war.

Right now as in since covid or...?

Sad to hear. Past news did suggest China had largely realised its environmental disaster and was taking steps to fix it, with the exception of its rivers.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 30, 2023, 08:01:14 PM
As in: it's something that's happening all across China in the last few weeks. "These wetlands are being drained and converted to farmland" etc.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on April 30, 2023, 08:12:21 PM
And yes China realized, but their current ruler has a grade 3 education, a strong centralizing instinct (through himself, with expertise valued through a purely political/ loyalty lens), and a belief in his destiny as a great emperor bringing Taiwan back under Beijing rule.

Asserting Zhongnanhai's imperial prerogative with impunity is higher priority than anything related to the environment.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Hamilcar on May 01, 2023, 04:39:26 AM
This still doesn't fix the fact that all their trade passes through shipping lanes which are only open at the pleasure of the US Navy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Hamilcar on May 01, 2023, 05:29:16 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 30, 2023, 11:17:32 AMApparently China is going through some large scale ecological devastation right now, converting what little remaining wilderness they have to farmland. This is apparently an attempt to increase food security in case of war.

Do you have a good link for this story?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 01, 2023, 09:38:17 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on May 01, 2023, 05:29:16 AMDo you have a good link for this story?

Not immediately at hand. I'll be looking for it.

The source is dinner table conversation derived from Chinese internet social media, especially Chinese expat social media. The track record of my sources - in my experience - about 75% chance of being accurate, and 25% percent chance of being an inaccurate overstatement.*

I'm 100% certain that certain wetlands near my wife's hometown have are being converted to farmland - local wildlife be damned - and that other outlying areas of her town (including ones I've visited) are being converted to farmland too.

... but I'll see if I can find a more substantial source than that, and if so I'll share it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 01, 2023, 05:34:27 PM
This article is pretty good I think - you'll have to use google translate (or equivalent) though: https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/shehui/gt-04282023032947.html
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Hamilcar on May 02, 2023, 04:31:06 AM
Jacob since you're plugged in to the discourse: Is China busy sending workers to the Russian far east? You know, just in case they need to protect Chinese-speakers on traditionally Chinese lands from a Nazi regime?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on May 03, 2023, 10:02:01 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on May 02, 2023, 04:31:06 AMJacob since you're plugged in to the discourse: Is China busy sending workers to the Russian far east? You know, just in case they need to protect Chinese-speakers on traditionally Chinese lands from a Nazi regime?

If they are it's not something that's high profile or discussed widely to my knowledge.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: viper37 on June 05, 2023, 11:15:58 AM
(https://i.redd.it/re04hrl2n74b1.jpg)
34 years ago, absolutely nothing happened in Tiananmen Square (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiananmen_Square) (Official Wikipedia page for the place lists nothing for 1989).
There is however, a detailed page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests_and_massacre) about the incident.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 05, 2023, 12:12:51 PM
Quote from: viper37 on June 05, 2023, 11:15:58 AM(https://i.redd.it/re04hrl2n74b1.jpg)
34 years ago, absolutely nothing happened in Tiananmen Square (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiananmen_Square) (Official Wikipedia page for the place lists nothing for 1989).
There is however, a detailed page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests_and_massacre) about the incident.


The TS wiki pages includes, in a summary of key events occurring in the square, "the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 after the death of Hu Yaobang, which was suppressed in a military crackdown" with a link to the wiki article "1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 05, 2023, 02:45:52 PM
Something that I don't think many in the West really think of anymore is that the protests were nationwide. My wife remembers sitting on the back of her father's bike after school and riding by burning buildings and angry crowds in her hometown.

She's also talked about how VHS tapes were passed around and everyone (well, the grown ups) knew what happened in Beijing, seeing the reports.

On a related note, a number of the university "blank page" protestors protesting excessive covid measures have just disappeared.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on June 05, 2023, 02:55:16 PM
Nationwide as in major cities right?
Didn't they stop tianmin by bringing in rural (mongol?) army units who saw no issue smashing student skulls?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 06, 2023, 08:52:26 AM
Quote from: Josquius on June 05, 2023, 02:55:16 PMNationwide as in major cities right?
Didn't they stop tianmin by bringing in rural (mongol?) army units who saw no issue smashing student skulls?

Nationwide as in hundreds of cities.

The massacres in Beijing were not in Tiananman Square (which the students eventually evacuated) but in the surrounding city.  The protests were widespread in the city and the some of the troops were undisciplined in theirs shooting (killing hundreds of bystanders and people in buildings along the routes the army was taking).  Other units refused to use force against their own civilians and there's some evidence of intra-army fighting.

The most brutal assaults were performed by the 38th Army, which was not recruited from any specific group of people.  There were a number of divisions from the Northern Command, which bordered Mongolia, but I've not seen evidence that they were especially brutal.

I had heard some time ago (and believed) that the most violent troops were non-Han, but discovered after some research that this did not appear to be the case.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 07, 2023, 11:57:32 AM
The CCP is alleged to have used TikTok data to track Hong Kong protestors, and to have access to US user data:

QuoteA former executive at ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns the popular short-video app TikTok, says in a legal filing that some members of the ruling Communist Party used data held by the company to identify and locate protesters in Hong Kong.

Yintao Yu, formerly head of engineering for ByteDance in the United States, says those same people had access to U.S. user data, an accusation that the company denies.

Yu, who worked for the company in 2018, made the allegations in a recent filing for a wrongful dismissal case filed in May in the San Francisco Superior Court. In the documents submitted to the court, he said ByteDance had a "superuser credential" — also known as a "god credential" — that enabled a special committee of Chinese Communist Party members stationed at the company to view all data collected by ByteDance, including those of U.S. users.

The credential acted as a "backdoor to any barrier ByteDance had supposedly installed to protect data from the C.C.P's surveillance," the filing says.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tiktok-hong-kong-1.6868141

... I don't think that'll surprise anyone here, of course.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on June 07, 2023, 12:11:59 PM
Yeah I'd be shocked if the Chinese state doesn't have access to TikTok data everywhere. I just cannot see such a mega-influential product and company be free of government oversight and influence (at the very least covert) in a country like China. Just does not happen.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on June 07, 2023, 05:21:11 PM
I think the story has been clear enough about TikTok for a while.  I wonder about Telegram:  so many people are using it to get the news about the war, and so many rumors are floating that FSB has the keys to everything.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 07, 2023, 05:34:49 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 07, 2023, 05:21:11 PMI think the story has been clear enough about TikTok for a while.  I wonder about Telegram:  so many people are using it to get the news about the war, and so many rumors are floating that FSB has the keys to everything.

I would be shocked if the FSB does not have keys to everything at Telegram.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 07, 2023, 05:55:16 PM
Yeah I've had conversations about Telegram through work.

It is essential in that part of the world and elsewhere (huge in Turkey too). Which mean it's where information and people are.

It has a reputation for being secure and good for privacy. They did have some fights with the Russian state (it was banned for a couple of years in Russia to no great success). So it is widely used in activist circles - again particularly in parts of Eastern Europe, Turkey etc. From my understanding, that reputation is unfounded and from a cybersecurity perspective it is one of the least secure or private social media platforms, especially from a default user perspective. I don't know if the FSB has some privileged access. From my understanding I'm not sure they'd need it because every security agency can do a lot of snooping on Telegram.

I remember speaking to someone about this in the context of Turkey when there were protests and loads of opposition groups organising on Telegram and deliberately avoiding WhatsApp because of Snowden/NSA etc etc. There were lots of memes of how unsafe it was. But in reality Telegram is far less secure and hugely easier for Turkish intelligence agencies to snoop on. It was such a thing that I actually heard theories that some of those memes were maybe basically digital agents provocateurs to undermine trust in more secure networks and build it up in a less secure one - so the very people state security agencies want to monitor are herded onto a network that is easier to monitor.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 20, 2023, 04:35:49 PM
So apparently German car makers are losing significant market share to Chinese companies in China... and the Chinese cars are also making inroads in the German market.

Reportedly, you get more for your money for the Chinese cars and the quality is... not bad? Good, even?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: PJL on June 20, 2023, 04:46:59 PM
Sounds like the Chinese are starting to do the own decoupling trade wise...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on June 20, 2023, 04:48:41 PM
I wonder why we haven't seen any Chinese car manufacturers try to expand to north america yet (I mean - other than Volvo).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on June 20, 2023, 04:51:16 PM
It's the thing that happens when a manufacturing sector matures in a country with cheaper labor.  Japanese cars used to be cheap crap.  Then they became the best buy.  Then they priced their cars where they should be.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 20, 2023, 05:02:20 PM
Quote from: Barrister on June 20, 2023, 04:48:41 PMI wonder why we haven't seen any Chinese car manufacturers try to expand to north america yet (I mean - other than Volvo).


Yeah I'm wondering the same...

I assume some sort of protectionism, but it's just an assumption.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on June 20, 2023, 07:31:55 PM
I think the Polestar 2 is damn fine looking car/EV...styling-wise.  But being PRC-made, it instinctively goes to the bottom of my list. 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on June 20, 2023, 08:16:13 PM
Yeah on the flipside in addition to the political implications there are safety concerns. I know of at least one case where someone died from a BYD spontaneously exploding.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on June 20, 2023, 11:00:25 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 20, 2023, 04:35:49 PMSo apparently German car makers are losing significant market share to Chinese companies in China... and the Chinese cars are also making inroads in the German market.

Reportedly, you get more for your money for the Chinese cars and the quality is... not bad? Good, even?

The Chinese car market is mainly growing in the small electric car segment right now, where the German manufacturers do not even offer anything. That said, the electric cars the German manufacturers offer do not seem to meet the taste of Chinese consumers, mainly for design or software reasons apparently. Will be a challenging transition in the next years to compete with the Chinese companies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on June 20, 2023, 11:06:07 PM
Quote from: Barrister on June 20, 2023, 04:48:41 PMI wonder why we haven't seen any Chinese car manufacturers try to expand to north america yet (I mean - other than Volvo).

I noticed some BYD and Lynk&Co cars in Germany recently. Polestars have been around for a few years already. Haven't seen other Chinese brands such as Nio or Xpeng yet.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Iormlund on June 21, 2023, 02:53:19 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 20, 2023, 08:16:13 PMYeah on the flipside in addition to the political implications there are safety concerns. I know of at least one case where someone died from a BYD spontaneously exploding.

I work in safety critical car components and I would not buy a Chinese made car if I could help it. Or from Africa, Latam, etc.

Quality Assurance is very much culturally driven (and company culture is just as important here).

Proper quality procedures increase costs tremendously.
We have almost as many engineers and technicians working in Quality as we do in Engineering or Maintenance. For example, we have teams babysitting systems that trace the amount of ultraviolet and infrared radiation released during every weld, and store them so if one fails we can track down every part that had a similar behaviour to do a recall.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on June 21, 2023, 03:06:41 PM
Quote from: PJL on June 20, 2023, 04:46:59 PMSounds like the Chinese are starting to do the own decoupling trade wise...
Not the first time I've heard someone say that. And I think it's something Europe is possibly really unprepared for.

My understanding is fundamentally Chinese car companies are offering cars that are more in-line with what Chinese consumers want in a way that German (and possibly Japanese?) companies didn't keep up with. I assume the US was never a big player in that market? They're purely electric and have been designed that way, they're small for crowded cities, they have really good consumer electronics etc. No doubt protectionism plays a part - as it has in every country in the world trying to develop its own industry - but from what I've read it's not just protectionism.

It'll be interesting to see if there are other markets around the world that also find the small, electronics heavy electric cars more attractive - my suspicion is that there probably are a fair few markets like that, but I've no real basis for saying that. But I feel like it could be a popular sort of car for, say, South-East Asia, Latin America, India (although obvs issues there) and, frankly, Europe :ph34r:

Of course it's also in line with Chinese goals to move up the supply chain and I can't help but hear echoes of every other concern about "made in China" in concerns about it. Having said that in kitting out my flat I avoided all Chinese products like white goods etc - although mainly for ethical reasons and because I'm comfortable enough to be able to afford ethics. If I could drive I wouldn't buy Chinese (but small, urban EV sounds ideal).

I think these are the charts I saw on it:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzCY1cVaUAIAcJB?format=jpg&name=small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzCY1ceaEAAHeTy?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on June 21, 2023, 06:21:14 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on June 21, 2023, 02:53:19 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 20, 2023, 08:16:13 PMYeah on the flipside in addition to the political implications there are safety concerns. I know of at least one case where someone died from a BYD spontaneously exploding.

I work in safety critical car components and I would not buy a Chinese made car if I could help it. Or from Africa, Latam, etc.

Quality Assurance is very much culturally driven (and company culture is just as important here).

Proper quality procedures increase costs tremendously.
We have almost as many engineers and technicians working in Quality as we do in Engineering or Maintenance. For example, we have teams babysitting systems that trace the amount of ultraviolet and infrared radiation released during every weld, and store them so if one fails we can track down every part that had a similar behaviour to do a recall.

 :cool:  :cool:

As someone who used to spend a bit of time looking at welds from a QA viewpoint, that's a rather nifty technique.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Iormlund on June 22, 2023, 05:47:14 PM
Quote from: mongers on June 21, 2023, 06:21:14 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on June 21, 2023, 02:53:19 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 20, 2023, 08:16:13 PMYeah on the flipside in addition to the political implications there are safety concerns. I know of at least one case where someone died from a BYD spontaneously exploding.

I work in safety critical car components and I would not buy a Chinese made car if I could help it. Or from Africa, Latam, etc.

Quality Assurance is very much culturally driven (and company culture is just as important here).

Proper quality procedures increase costs tremendously.
We have almost as many engineers and technicians working in Quality as we do in Engineering or Maintenance. For example, we have teams babysitting systems that trace the amount of ultraviolet and infrared radiation released during every weld, and store them so if one fails we can track down every part that had a similar behaviour to do a recall.

 :cool:  :cool:

As someone who used to spend a bit of time looking at welds from a QA viewpoint, that's a rather nifty technique.

It's pretty finicky.

The system detects any variation, so unless you have a very stable process it can be a pain in the ass (eg. excess oil leftover from stamping). Most of what it flags are actually Ok parts, which then have to be inspected and validated manually (as the next process will not accept any part that has been flagged as Nok).
But it also routinely detects stuff that visual inspection will miss (and from time to time, stuff that the operators should have detected but did not).

It's also great help when setting process parameters.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on June 22, 2023, 06:15:58 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on June 22, 2023, 05:47:14 PM
Quote from: mongers on June 21, 2023, 06:21:14 PM
Quote from: Iormlund on June 21, 2023, 02:53:19 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 20, 2023, 08:16:13 PMYeah on the flipside in addition to the political implications there are safety concerns. I know of at least one case where someone died from a BYD spontaneously exploding.

I work in safety critical car components and I would not buy a Chinese made car if I could help it. Or from Africa, Latam, etc.

Quality Assurance is very much culturally driven (and company culture is just as important here).

Proper quality procedures increase costs tremendously.
We have almost as many engineers and technicians working in Quality as we do in Engineering or Maintenance. For example, we have teams babysitting systems that trace the amount of ultraviolet and infrared radiation released during every weld, and store them so if one fails we can track down every part that had a similar behaviour to do a recall.

 :cool:  :cool:

As someone who used to spend a bit of time looking at welds from a QA viewpoint, that's a rather nifty technique.

It's pretty finicky.

The system detects any variation, so unless you have a very stable process it can be a pain in the ass (eg. excess oil leftover from stamping). Most of what it flags are actually Ok parts, which then have to be inspected and validated manually (as the next process will not accept any part that has been flagged as Nok).
But it also routinely detects stuff that visual inspection will miss (and from time to time, stuff that the operators should have detected but did not).

It's also great help when setting process parameters.

Thanks Iorm for the explanation, very interesting.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on July 01, 2023, 08:59:19 PM
Looks like Xi may be purging the entire leadership of the Rocket Army  (https://www.rfi.fr/cn/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD/20230701-%E7%93%A6%E6%A0%BC%E7%BA%B3%E5%85%B5%E5%8F%98%E4%BC%A0%E6%B3%A2%E5%8A%A8%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%86%9B%E6%96%B9-%E7%81%AB%E7%AE%AD%E5%86%9B%E5%87%BA%E7%8E%B0%E6%B8%85%E6%B4%97%E4%BD%86%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF%E6%97%A0%E6%B3%95%E8%AF%81%E5%AE%9E) - source in Chinese, google translate does a good job though
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on July 06, 2023, 03:25:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on June 20, 2023, 05:02:20 PM
Quote from: Barrister on June 20, 2023, 04:48:41 PMI wonder why we haven't seen any Chinese car manufacturers try to expand to north america yet (I mean - other than Volvo).


Yeah I'm wondering the same...

I assume some sort of protectionism, but it's just an assumption.

Yesterday I received a request to participate in a poll from a car manufacturers association of some sort.  It was mainly about the purchase of my new vehicle (btw my IONIC 5 finally came in).  There were a series of questions of around whether I would consider purchasing vehicles manufactured in certain countries.  There were several questions getting at whether I would purchase from a Chinese manufacturer. 

So the issue seems to be top of mind of other car makers.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on August 08, 2023, 07:31:23 AM
China having another go at stopping Philippines access to their grounded LST base on that reef, this time they're also demanding it be towed away.

Just to underline the absurdity of China's 'nine-dots line' claim, this is a decent looking map, all other country claims look reasonable, certainly solving by direct negations or by resolution in the international courts, but China's:

(https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/INTERACTIVE_South-China-Sea-claims_August2023-02-1691481913.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C770&quality=80)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on August 30, 2023, 09:31:38 AM
Not really political but I found this really interesting - Pew doing research onto attitudes to religion/"religious" practices in China:
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/08/30/measuring-religion-in-china/
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 30, 2023, 12:00:01 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2023, 07:31:23 AMJust to underline the absurdity of China's 'nine-dots line' claim, this is a decent looking map, all other country claims look reasonable, certainly solving by direct negations or by resolution in the international courts, but China's:

It can't help Brunei's tourist business that sunbathers risk crossing into Chinese territory if they wade out into the water.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 30, 2023, 12:03:18 PM
Anyone ever read anything about china's daft claims from a more China sympathetic viewpoint?
An actual examination I mean. Not just "mwa wa wa west was bad to China in the 19th century and now we strong and Chinese sailors have always gone there so there!"
As it really seems to be just such a blatant piss take. And it's curious it's only in this very specific area. Their nonsense is more standard in other seas.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on August 30, 2023, 10:01:35 PM
China real estate collapse back on? Another big developer, Country Garden, announced a 6.7 billion loss for the first half of the year.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on August 31, 2023, 11:30:07 AM
Quote from: HVC on August 30, 2023, 10:01:35 PMChina real estate collapse back on? Another big developer, Country Garden, announced a 6.7 billion loss for the first half of the year.

I don't think it was ever off.  This is just a continuation of the problem.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on August 31, 2023, 11:32:12 AM
Isn't this rather similar to what happened in Japan? I seem to recall a massive real-estate bubble being a key part of their problems in 1995.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 31, 2023, 11:44:35 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 31, 2023, 11:32:12 AMIsn't this rather similar to what happened in Japan? I seem to recall a massive real-estate bubble being a key part of their problems in 1995.

I think there are partial parallels to most of the major economic crises in the last many decades, making prediction by comparison a bit tricky.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on August 31, 2023, 02:32:21 PM
Yeah, there's similarities to Japan but it is quite a different situation.
In Japan it was land speculation and speculation on mad theme park businesses and that sort of thing actually becoming profitable.
Actual property has very little value in Japan.

In China it is squarely about property. About owning raw numbers of competed flats with zero intention of using them and the only idea about turning a profit being that real estate always goes up.

In Japan it was a far more natural consequence of the over heated economy.
In China it's just where the limited freedom to do much else with your money and cultural weirdness has got them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on August 31, 2023, 06:42:01 PM
Another dimension to the property boom in China is that for the longest time, buying real estate was practically the only / safest way to invest money for the average Chinese person.

On top of that school districts are fundamental to life success for your children - you go to school in your district, but better elementary schools feed to better high schools which increases the chance of better university placements (or placements at all). So the average Chinese person would see significant real value in owning property in an area with better schools than where they're coming from.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on September 04, 2023, 01:24:32 AM
Read a report in NZZ on the Chinese real estate crisis. Some crazy numbers there. 90 million empty appartments, another 230 million square meters under construction.  Some older investments had to be written down by 2/3 already. 70% of all private savings invested in real estate. When that bubble bursts, it will be the greatest crash of all times.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: mongers on September 05, 2023, 06:13:24 AM
Quote from: Zanza on September 04, 2023, 01:24:32 AMRead a report in NZZ on the Chinese real estate crisis. Some crazy numbers there. 90 million empty appartments, another 230 million square meters under construction.  Some older investments had to be written down by 2/3 already. 70% of all private savings invested in real estate. When that bubble bursts, it will be the greatest crash of all times.

Yeah and just think of all that wasted concrete and the CO2 emissions produced in the construction.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on September 05, 2023, 09:27:08 AM
It's not only in China. Chinese firm built a multi billion ghost town in Malaysia too with the sultans backing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 12, 2023, 02:42:30 PM
I think I've mentioned it before but the Economist podcast on China, Drum Tower, is worth a listen. The lastest episode is really interesting, on the Third Front including reporter visiting Panzhihua which is one of the cities built at that itime.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 12, 2023, 03:05:43 PM
Can you give an executive summary?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on September 12, 2023, 03:24:10 PM
It's a little tough because the episodes are normally about a reporting trip with clips of people who they speak to (and, as they always point out, who are willing to speak and be recorded by a Western journalist).

But in this one their China correspondent in China (the other one is now reporting from Taiwan) read a book about the Third Front which was basically Mao's push from the mid-60s to the mid-70s to build Chinese infrastructure and industry inland. This was all secret, like closed cities in the USSR and designed to be hidden from potential enemies. After reading the book he visited Panzhihua which was one of these cities built around a steel mill in a place that had no good reason for a steel mill to exist. But now it has a large Third Front museum (though it's not on the red tourist trail party promoted sites).

Interesting conversations with Chinese tourists. But also the actual history was that most of the CCP leadership were highly resistant and kept on fobbing Mao off about it, until the Gulf of Tonkin and US escalation in Vietnam which made all the leadership think they were at risk from Soviet and/or American and/or Indian attack (this was when there were regular clashes on the border). Then they were basically all in until Nixon's visit. So some reflections on that as it was hugely expensive economically and in human terms (though never a priority for the CCP), but was suddenly seen as essential for security by the leadership.

Also slightly complicated because the book by a Western academic actually ends with evidence noting that it was hugely expensive economically, it was at huge human cost - but there's reason to believe it meant the interior of China was able to develop much quicker than otherwise so in the long run the economic cost/benefit is less clear.

But really interesting bit of history, plus current China and also people talking about it as many in the town or visiting either were or had family who were moved into the Third Front.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on September 12, 2023, 03:26:28 PM
Thanks for that :cheers: :nerd:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on September 12, 2023, 05:51:24 PM
Quote from: HVC on September 05, 2023, 09:27:08 AMIt's not only in China. Chinese firm built a multi billion ghost town in Malaysia too with the sultans backing.

To be honest I
Quote from: Zanza on September 04, 2023, 01:24:32 AMRead a report in NZZ on the Chinese real estate crisis. Some crazy numbers there. 90 million empty appartments, another 230 million square meters under construction.  Some older investments had to be written down by 2/3 already. 70% of all private savings invested in real estate. When that bubble bursts, it will be the greatest crash of all times.

On the other hand, in the US least we could use a few million new houses or apartments.  :glare:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on September 13, 2023, 12:40:39 AM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on September 12, 2023, 05:51:24 PM
Quote from: HVC on September 05, 2023, 09:27:08 AMIt's not only in China. Chinese firm built a multi billion ghost town in Malaysia too with the sultans backing.

To be honest I
Quote from: Zanza on September 04, 2023, 01:24:32 AMRead a report in NZZ on the Chinese real estate crisis. Some crazy numbers there. 90 million empty appartments, another 230 million square meters under construction.  Some older investments had to be written down by 2/3 already. 70% of all private savings invested in real estate. When that bubble bursts, it will be the greatest crash of all times.

On the other hand, in the US least we could use a few million new houses or apartments.  :glare:

Could you though?
I get the impression the US situation is even more extreme than the UK one in that there's no actual national  housing shortage but a huge mismatch between where the housing is and where people want/have to live.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on October 03, 2023, 11:04:04 PM
Chinas bring out the big guns. They're taking back their pandas from other countries zoos. That'll teach you to be mean to China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on October 04, 2023, 01:42:27 AM
Quote from: HVC on October 03, 2023, 11:04:04 PMChinas bring out the big guns. They're taking back their pandas from other countries zoos. That'll teach you to be mean to China.

Good. They're useless animals anyway. To lazy to procreate.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: garbon on October 04, 2023, 02:00:18 AM
I judge everything on a strict schedule of utility.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Brain on October 04, 2023, 02:07:50 AM
Quote from: garbon on October 04, 2023, 02:00:18 AMI judge everything on a strict schedule of utility.

:(
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 20, 2023, 02:24:47 PM
This focuses on AI (because tech press) but China as well is very striking. If these reports are true I have to wonder what exactly Apple thought they were getting with Stewart:
QuoteApple Reportedly Cancels Jon Stewart's Show Over His AI and China Talking Points
The show was abruptly canceled due to tension over Stewart's desire to cover the topics of artificial intelligence and China, report says.
By
Kevin Hurler

Jon Stewart is best known for pissing the right people off with his nuanced political takes on his Apple TV show The Problem with Jon Stewart, and it appears he's also pissed off his employer. Stewart's The Problem has officially been canceled, and the reason why may lie in his view on artificial intelligence, a project Apple has been quietly working on.

The show would not be returning for a third season on the streaming platform Apple TV+, The New York Times reported Thursday. Things came to an "abrupt" end due to differences in direction between Stewart and Apple fueling the split. The Times says that Apple was feeling tension regarding Stewart's interest in covering topics surrounding artificial intelligence and China. Future topics related to the upcoming 2024 presidential election reportedly could have caused an even further divide between the company and Stewart.

Apple reportedly approached Stewart and informed him that he needed to be "aligned" with the company's values, according to The Hollywood Reporter. Stewart apparently "balked" at the idea of being sterilized by Apple, the report says.

Taping for the third season's first episode was scheduled to begin in a few weeks. The comedian and political commentator is currently in the midst of a multi-year deal with Apple to produce content with his company Busboy Productions.

Apple did not immediately return Gizmodo's request for comment.

Artificial intelligence has been taking the world by storm for bad or for worse, with companies like OpenAI ham-fisting the tech into every facet of our lives. Apple has also been interested in its piece of the pie, and canceling The Problem over coverage of AI could be a way to keep the brand's name positively associated with the technology.

In May, news broke that Apple was building its own AI while banning its employees from using large language models like the wildly popular ChatGPT.  Apple made progress on its AI endeavors in July with the main AI framework being codenamed "Ajax" (perhaps a reference to Apple Jacks), while an internal chatbot has the name "Apple GPT."

I always wonder quite how Apple fits into US-China de-risking. I believe some interpreted the Chinesse direction of state employees to not use Apple phones as a shot across the bow to Apple and the US but it feels like they're an incredibly vulnerable target - and possibly can't even do anything about it because if they do, the Chinese state may interpret it fairly badly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 20, 2023, 02:50:40 PM
Interesting. My thoughts:

1) Good on Stewart :cheers: - it's good that there are still people out there producing investigative / critical analysis like him.

2) Apple banning their staff from using ChatGPT (presumably at work) makes sense. There are massive risks for companies handling any kind of confidential data to let their people use products doing unknown things to the inputs. And that's before the any kind of "we want a slice of the pie, not feed a competitor" considerations. Most tech companies I know of have pretty restrictive policies on things like ChatGPT and for good reasons.

3) Good observation re: Apple and China. I expect the US gov't has some security and intelligence ins on the down low with Apple. I also think China would like some. And those two things are mutually exclusive. It's not unthinkable that complying with Chinese, US, and EU legislation around gov't access/ private information/ monitoring becomes impossible at some point.

And given Xi's proclivities, it's not far-fetched to envision a scenario where he decides a more compliant domestic champion should have Apple's marketshare, or that Apple's Chinese operations should become a Chinese company fully compliant with Zhongnanhai.

Looking at what happened to folks like Jack Ma (and many others) I'm confident that Xi would enjoy showing a foreign company like Apple (or Tesla) who the boss really is.

Significant risk there for Apple, IMO.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on October 20, 2023, 03:07:48 PM
Interesting.  I just finished reading this piece on Jon Stewart in The Bulwark:

https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/jon-stewart-and-apples-low-reward

Writer Sonny Bunch points out that Stewart's show does very poorly (40,000 unique viewers) bringing basically zero benefit to the company, but that given his still-high-profile he always runs the risk of saying something and going viral, which risks tying Apple to whatever Stewart just said.

Plus yeah, it focuses on China, not AI.

Concluding paragraph:

QuoteIf Jon Stewart really did walk from his show because Apple wanted him to shy away from potentially controversial topics, well, bully for him, that's great: I will likely never know, but I'm sure it's not easy to walk away from an eight-figure check on general principle even when you're worth nine figures. The whole thing is a reminder, however, that the entertainment industry's decision to entwine itself with Chinese interests has had a real and measurable negative impact on the ability to tell honest and important stories about our time.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 22, 2023, 09:36:04 PM
And just on Apple - from the FT. China is launching a tax and land use investigation into Foxconn.

Separately China's imposed export restrictions on graphite which is a key component for EV battery manufacture. China only has a small propoprtion of the world's graphite but 65% of graphite processing is in China. The major importers are the US, South Korea and Poland.

As with a lot of other similar stories like this, the US and other impcted can produce this and can catch up (on graphite specifically, Turkey has a lot of reserves) - but it'll take time and it'll take state direction/coordination.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 23, 2023, 11:26:31 AM
I don't get the Chinese strategy here.  Intimidating Foxconn just encourages the trend whereby Apple and other big  foreign players that have helped underwrite China's manufacturing might will direct every incremental dollar somewhere else.  If China's economy were overheating that would be one thing, but the reality appears to be the opposite - that the PRC is at risk of a deflationary recession, assuming it already isn't in one.

The graphite ban also makes no sense; it won't do any material damage to the US or SK but it just adds further momentum to the reshoring/friendshoring bandwagon.   

What concerns me is that the only strategic rationale that makes sense here is if the goal is to transition back to Maoism or "Socialism in One Country." 
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on October 23, 2023, 11:32:36 AM
It also works for internal consumption, which is shirt term thinking but important for Chinese leadership.  They also know the west has a short memory and (I assume) think they can mend things in the future if need be.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 23, 2023, 12:05:55 PM
"Xi wants to be Mao" has been the analysis of the Chinese people I'm the closest to pretty much since he took over.

I've seen nothing to counter-indicate that and plenty that conforms to the theory.

Xi and his family was hurt by the cultural revolution. Seems the lesson he took was that a cultural revolution is fine as long as he is in the driver's seat.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 26, 2023, 08:05:51 PM
Li Keqiang has just died of a heart attack.

The former premier stepped down last year, having been the highest ranking CCP member speaking against Xi's policies. Whether or not Xi had Li murdered, Li's death will certainly generate rumours and perceptions to that effect.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 29, 2023, 06:19:35 PM
Many mentions of his wife who translate Yes Minister into Chinese in the obits (he was very supportive).

And interesting detail from a former British diplomat:
QuoteShaun Riordan
@shaun_riordan
Obits of Li Keqiang mention his wife translated Yes Prime Minister into Chinese. When I was in the Embassy there in late 80s we lent our videos of Yes Minister to MFA. When we asked for them back they said they were using them to train Chinese diplomats @vtchakarova

Apparently - and this is not confirmed but given the above sounds more plausible - Deng was a huge fan, which is very weird to discover :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 29, 2023, 08:26:19 PM
An interesting phenomenon is that the memorializing of Li is used to criticize Xi heavily. I've seen some pretty brazen things expressed.

I don't know how much this made ripples in the West, but Li was seen as being in opposition to Xi. Xi would make statements like "we should celebrate how we have lifted everyone in China out of poverty" and Li would almost immediately say things like "there are still X million people in China living on less than [poverty line]. We still have much work to do."

I mean, he was still one of the top CCP officials in the country, with the CCP being an authoritarian dictatorship - but it's still a thing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on October 30, 2023, 02:54:35 AM
Ripples in the west?
I haven't seen this guy even mentioned on the news since that incident at the conference.

Hell. China in general rarely gets a mention these days unless xi is meeting someone or there's worries about supplying Russia.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 30, 2023, 06:33:26 AM
It is worth noting that restrictions on Western reporters are far, far stricter than they used to be. I know the Economist, NYT and FT, for example, have all had people expelled or pulled for their safety to Taiwan, South Korea or Singapore. There are some still able to do reporting on the ground, but it is restricted - which I think is part of why you see less general China coverage and more about say Xi meeting x.

Even his last speech when he'd ended his term as Premier had a line that "heaven is watching" which was reported a bit.

I think the Western media realy strugges to cover Chinese politics because there is a little bit of a black box element that it's difficult to know or explain what's going on in the Party. I think Richard McGregor's The Party is still seen as one of the best books explaining Chinese politics and it's about 15 years old.

The way to report Li also I think reflects the particular challenges in the Xi era. Wen Jiabao got more coverage as part of Hu-Wen's term. I think to begin with Li was reported in similar ways but as it became clear this wasn't like Hu's term, the focus shifted to Xi because that's where power lied and was the most important story - so reporting Li as people had Wen would be misleading. On the other hand, by not covering him especially as Jacob points out, you're perhaps reinforcing Xi's message and project because there's no (guarded) internal pushback. If you report Xi like normal, you're missing the story; if you just report Xi, you're maybe still missing the story?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 30, 2023, 10:43:26 AM
Yeah it's an interesting observation. I don't really have any answers.

While looking at photos of the massive flower arrangements that spontaneously have appeared to commemorate Li's passing. Whether truly spontaneous, or organized by a counter-Xi grouping of some form, it's still noteworthy in that official media is downplaying all of this and basically not reporting on Li's passing (keeping in mind that the protests that led to the Tiannanmen Square massacre started in a similar way).

Messages on some of the flowers - circulating on social media - have been pretty blatantly anti-Xi, denouncing autocratic rule and such.

I mean, this is unlikely to quick off an actual rising or anything like that - but anti-Xi sentiment is definitely bubbling under the surface.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on October 30, 2023, 11:59:14 AM
That also seems resonant in China with the respose to Zhou Enlai's death.

I read that one indication this was a genuine surprise/natural causes was the extent to which state media and the CCP weren't really prepared. Obviously CCP leaders normally live to a very long age, which means a line is normally prepared by the time they die. Apparently on this it took some time to actually put that together which is unusual in China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on October 30, 2023, 12:14:26 PM
Question for older American folks here:  how much did reasonably educated Americans know and understand about USSR, pre-Gorbachev, compared to how much they know and understand about China today?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 30, 2023, 12:17:34 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 30, 2023, 11:59:14 AMThat also seems resonant in China with the respose to Zhou Enlai's death.

I read that one indication this was a genuine surprise/natural causes was the extent to which state media and the CCP weren't really prepared. Obviously CCP leaders normally live to a very long age, which means a line is normally prepared by the time they die. Apparently on this it took some time to actually put that together which is unusual in China.

... so if he was murdered, it apparenlty wasn't a widely planned for event.

(Just a note for the conspiracy theories floating around)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on October 30, 2023, 03:46:06 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 30, 2023, 12:14:26 PMQuestion for older American folks here:  how much did reasonably educated Americans know and understand about USSR, pre-Gorbachev, compared to how much they know and understand about China today?

I am not sure as I was not particularly well educated back then but it sure seems like the shitty state of the USSR and its former satellites caught us by surprise. I vaguely remember us thinking East Germany was a far stronger entity than it actually was.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on October 30, 2023, 03:48:23 PM
I'm not American, but personally I had no real idea of how thoroughly hollow the USSR was. I think I have a much better idea about China today than I did the USSR.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 30, 2023, 05:14:18 PM
I grew up at the time of detente, START II, the Helsinki Accords, Brezhnev.  I think most people had a decent understanding of the political workings and the geopolitics and had a general (not very finely grained) image of the incredible dreariness of life in the workers paradise.  I think we have a better understanding of life at the street and village level of China now.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 31, 2023, 09:01:56 AM
Funny story  - I was on a high school debate team in the 1987.  In one debate round I argued that if Gorbachev's reforms were allowed to proceed it would eventually lead to a peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union.  I lost the round, because the judge said that the scenario was inherently so implausible it couldn't be taken seriously.  (this is in the context of an activity where people regularly argued that minor changes to ERISA or farm supports would result in nuclear annihilation).

I recall that a key source material were articles in a journal called "Problems of Communism" which apparently still exists.

Not sure how this cuts in terms of answering DG's question.  :)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 02, 2023, 05:21:29 AM
To totally flip the topic on its head....
Barbie.
Random LinkedIn post from a Chinese translator (nobody I know.) I found interesting.

QuoteBarbie totally blew up on Chinese social media when it hit the big screen in China. Some of my friends who aren't that great with English told me they thought Barbie came off as kind of pretentious with this fake or pseudo-feminism vibe, just based on the subtitles.

A couple of days ago, I ran into this cool post that was comparing the official Chinese subtitles with the ones from this "wild fansub group" (野生字幕组).

I went through all the examples they gave super carefully, and wow, it turned out to be such an interesting dive!

Every single translation in Example 2 (V2) was done by an official translator from 甲骨易 (BestEasy) in Beijing. People were not only calling out the pretty messed-up translations but also the super obvious stereotypes and biases towards Barbie and all the female characters.

It kinda seemed like the translator was standing in Ken's shoes. I can't say for sure if the official translator did this on purpose (not counting those mistranslations), but it sure made a lot of female viewers feel attacked, humiliated, and just plain mad with all that gender-biased Chinese.

This might be why this fansub group took matters into their own hands and decided to re-translate the subtitles.

This fansub group is made up of some awesome female translators who mainly work on female-led movies and TV shows. They really went all out to use inclusive, unbiased, and just the right language to capture the essence of the original text in all the examples in V1. A few peeps mentioned that their V1 versions might be a tad too academic or straight-up.

The fansub group's translation is even gonna be used as a reference for this girl's grad thesis on "the subjective differences in Barbie translations by translators of different genders." And there are other folks out there working on similar thesis topics too.

Scratching further apparently this is a big thing in China. Officially sanctioned subtitles which completely miss the point, sanitise, and render shit, and then fan retranslations which get things right.

I do wonder whether its just the official people being 'wrong'. This post blaming it on their gender. Or something more nefarious and (self?-) censorship.
Fascinating and I'd love to find out more.

(alas the cool post they talk about is in Chinese so useless to me- https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4E22AQGO98q4OUQ9Tg/feedshare-shrink_800/0/1698303080724?e=1701907200&v=beta&t=m8dqY4gJgbiBUGJL3eLaC9yYDXqjUQm3C7D8r1DtCD4)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on November 02, 2023, 08:01:15 AM
It's not about films but it reminds me a bit of a brilliant book by Megan Walsh called The Subplot which is about what China is reading but also how it is reading (and often creating) particularly digitally. FT review:
QuoteThe Subplot: What China is Reading and Why it Matters
An illuminating insight into the web fiction, sci-fi and subtle dissent read by one-fifth of humanity

Isabel Hilton January 27 2022

Earlier this month, one man's story caught the imagination of millions of China's "netizens". Mr Yue is 44, a former fisherman. He had left home to look for his son, who had vanished after working in the capital as a chef. Yue left behind a paralysed father, a mother with a broken arm, a wife and child, all of whom he continued to support in a gruelling round of poorly paid shift work across Beijing. His was a schedule that barely allowed for meals, let alone sleep.

We know this because Yue's life was laid bare when he tested positive for Covid-19 and his travels around the city were tracked. He was one of the shadow army of migrant workers in China's glistening cities, whose stories are largely unheard.

Except that now, as critic Megan Walsh reveals in The Subplot, a short but illuminating exploration of the reading habits of one-fifth of humanity, the prose and poetry of migrant workers such as Yue are one of several new genres that have blossomed in China's digital spaces. The Chinese internet may be a place of unpleasantness and censorship, but it is also, as Walsh explains, a creative space that has given migrant workers an unprecedented platform, beginning with the viral success of the 2017 diary of a domestic worker, I am Fan Yusu.

There are several other literary phenomena in this fascinating account. Another is the cut-throat world of Chinese web fiction, in which novels are pushed out at punishing speed and in staggering volume on online fiction platforms, in the hope of attracting a film or TV deal. China's online reading platforms, she notes, carry some 24m fiction titles by writers who hammer out between 3,000 and 30,000 words a day. This disorderly energy apparently worries President Xi Jinping, not least because it bypasses the traditional gatekeepers of the Chinese Writers Association, who used to be able to weed out authors who might signal trouble for the Party.

There is still, of course, a more formal publishing world in which established authors try to make sense of the massive upheaval and disruptions of the past 40 years. Writers such as the 2012 Nobel laureate Mo Yan, best known for his 1986 debut Red Sorghum, or Yan Lianke, author of the novel Hard Like Water and the memoir Three Brothers, continue to write — if not always to be published in the People's Republic.

For many authors who must navigate the uncertainties of shifting official red lines, science fiction offers a safe haven. It is a genre in which to address the disruption and dislocations between past and present, and between official narratives and reality, and to explore otherwise dangerous themes such as social injustice.

Liu Cixin, a computer engineer and bestselling sci-fi author, locates real-world problems such as pollution and human greed on distant planets, while in the story Regenerated Bricks, Han Song describes recycling the rubble of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, which contains victims' remains, into "intelligent bricks" for space colonisation, thus populating distant planets with unhappy ghosts.

It is a fair guess that most readers of The Subplot will never read the bulk of the literature Walsh describes. Yet she argues persuasively that the foreign reader who wants to understand Chinese society should explore the fictional worlds that lie beyond what she calls the "broad-brush political and economic narratives of the public domain." And for those keen to explore a bit more, Walsh has pulled together a further reading list.

The world she explores is a vigorous panorama of multiple genres that encompass the rural nostalgia of "cottagecore", espionage fiction, crime stories and fantasy martial arts heroics. Little of it — despite official exhortation — seems to sing the praises of the Party, preferring to grapple with the massive social and personal dislocations of recent times.

Despite this teeming landscape, there are, however, still missing voices: Uyghur and Tibetan writers and intellectuals have all but vanished from the public sphere — some have fallen silent, others have literally disappeared. Han authors write versions of China's "minorities" but their own stories await a future reckoning.

The Subplot: What China is Reading and Why it Matters by Megan Walsh, Columbia Global Reports $16, 136 pages

Isabel Hilton is the founder of the China Dialogue Trust

You also think of, say, Lan Yu which is an amazing gay Chinese film from a time when things were a little more open (there is no way it would be made now) based on a novel published online in the late 90s - and the huge popularity of those gay love stories in online fiction, which Xi is trying to repress. Even with the control, represssion, whipped up nationalist fury - all of which exists - on the Chinese internet it is still, I think, a place of creativity, perhaps something like resistance or counter-culture (even if just in the Havel way of writing about etc things outside the party). Especially with things like writing and I'd include unofficial translations in that because it is more difficult to control than, say, film.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on November 02, 2023, 08:22:12 AM
Lets send George RR Martin to China.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on November 02, 2023, 08:24:30 AM
Also, if internet literature is the window into the soul of a society then the west is way more into furries and my little pony than I'm comfortable with.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on November 02, 2023, 10:13:27 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 02, 2023, 05:21:29 AMTo totally flip the topic on its head....
Barbie.
Random LinkedIn post from a Chinese translator (nobody I know.) I found interesting.
...
Scratching further apparently this is a big thing in China. Officially sanctioned subtitles which completely miss the point, sanitise, and render shit, and then fan retranslations which get things right.

I do wonder whether its just the official people being 'wrong'. This post blaming it on their gender. Or something more nefarious and (self?-) censorship.
Fascinating and I'd love to find out more.

(alas the cool post they talk about is in Chinese so useless to me- https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4E22AQGO98q4OUQ9Tg/feedshare-shrink_800/0/1698303080724?e=1701907200&v=beta&t=m8dqY4gJgbiBUGJL3eLaC9yYDXqjUQm3C7D8r1DtCD4)

My take is that decision making power in China rests with a bunch of conservative old men who are very subject to "kids these days" ignorance. They are 100% comfortable and able to push their own view with no real opposition, and have whole bureaucracies devoted to anticipating and catering to their prejudice (including the bureaucracy responsible for approving films and providing official translations).

So far this lens has about 100% success rate in providing reasonable explanations for phenomena like the Barbie translation situation, IMO.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on November 16, 2023, 04:40:41 AM
So what are the odds of a landmark agreement from the Biden-Xi meeting?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on November 21, 2023, 10:34:39 AM
Turns out Michael Kovrig was a spy after all.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on November 21, 2023, 12:19:38 PM
Wasn't Spavor a drug dealer too?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on November 22, 2023, 10:03:46 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on November 21, 2023, 12:19:38 PMWasn't Spavor a drug dealer too?

?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on November 26, 2023, 07:14:28 AM
Some military moves going on lately with China deliberately injuring some Australian divers by ignoring all warnings and using active sonar on them.

This was followed by the US navy with two carrier groups trapping the Chinese carrier in a pincer and making the Chinese military shit themselves.

Read a good comment somewhere about china's shitty actions in the seas- it's basically childish bullying. Cause enough hastle and annoyance for other nations, who afterall don't have much to lose, that they just decide it's not worth their trouble and stay out of the waters where China is being a cunt.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 26, 2023, 11:15:40 AM
well, the Chinese navy is still a bit of brownwater one....
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on December 22, 2023, 06:18:57 AM
Three gorges damn is cracking again.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on December 25, 2023, 03:41:52 PM
So, the new Fujian aircraft carrier has finally gotten underway, though still incomplete.  It is shaping up to be one of those bureaucratically-driven failures like the US Zumwalt class destroyers, as political pressures forced the PLAN to take huge technical risks without any real means to constrain their losses in the event of failure.

For instance, the directive came down from the supreme military command, headed by Xi himself, that the PLAN was to bypass the normal technical evolution of catapults and instead jump directly to electromagnetic launch systems like the new US Ford class.  The ship's power plant though, lacks the energy output to operate EMALS at anything like a normal operating tempo while also providing propulsion.  Even worse, there was no time to build prototype land-based version of the EMALS they wanted to use, which was a completely hypothetical one proposed by an engineering student at Beijing University.  There have been no tests of the EMALS and it isn't entirely clear that it is even fully installed or, perhaps not even fully developed.  The officer in charge of PLAN R&D, who oversaw the project, was arrested for "corruption" (but likely actually for making promises that could not be kept).

That creates another severe problem, because the proposed aircraft for the Fujian is the venerable J-15,  which is an extremely heavy aircraft for a carrier-based fighter, and its successor is still on the drawing board.  The only positive for the PLAN in this is that they don't have the pilots to man the new air wing, so not being able to launch or land aircraft is not such a drawback.

It is possible that the PLAN will figure out how to make the EMALS work, and draw enough planes and pilots from their two existing carriers to start crew training, but since Fujian uses a completely new launch and landing system and flight deck "dance," training is going to take a few years even given the ability to call on experienced crew members from the first two carriers.

All signs are that this ship, like Zumwalt, \was a step too far in advance of what the technology would actually allow.  It looks like heads have already started to roll.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on December 29, 2023, 04:50:20 PM
China has a new defence minister. The previous one disappeared without explanation a few months ago. New guy is from the navy.

Anyway, I saw this (small) picture in a news feed. What's going on? Raised fists, five persons standing behind him. More sitting on chairs uncomfortably? Strange.

(https://apps-cloud.n-tv.de/img/24629062-1703858066000/17-6/470/GChPm-facAEg8ol.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on December 29, 2023, 05:10:44 PM
They seem to be doing that sometimes. This image is from 2015:

(https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/china_military007.jpg)
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on December 29, 2023, 05:12:00 PM
Looks, like they're yelling into an invisible large prop telephone.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on December 29, 2023, 05:13:57 PM
Quote from: HVC on December 29, 2023, 05:12:00 PMLooks, like they're yelling into an invisible large prop telephone.
:lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 29, 2023, 05:16:12 PM
Isn't that the PLA version of a salute?  I thought I read that somewhere.  And I do know the Russkies tried to eliminate the salute in the name of egalitarianism before bringing it back.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Threviel on December 29, 2023, 05:40:37 PM
Quote from: grumbler on December 25, 2023, 03:41:52 PMSo, the new Fujian aircraft carrier has finally gotten underway, though still incomplete.  It is shaping up to be one of those bureaucratically-driven failures like the US Zumwalt class destroyers, as political pressures forced the PLAN to take huge technical risks without any real means to constrain their losses in the event of failure.

For instance, the directive came down from the supreme military command, headed by Xi himself, that the PLAN was to bypass the normal technical evolution of catapults and instead jump directly to electromagnetic launch systems like the new US Ford class.  The ship's power plant though, lacks the energy output to operate EMALS at anything like a normal operating tempo while also providing propulsion.  Even worse, there was no time to build prototype land-based version of the EMALS they wanted to use, which was a completely hypothetical one proposed by an engineering student at Beijing University.  There have been no tests of the EMALS and it isn't entirely clear that it is even fully installed or, perhaps not even fully developed.  The officer in charge of PLAN R&D, who oversaw the project, was arrested for "corruption" (but likely actually for making promises that could not be kept).

That creates another severe problem, because the proposed aircraft for the Fujian is the venerable J-15,  which is an extremely heavy aircraft for a carrier-based fighter, and its successor is still on the drawing board.  The only positive for the PLAN in this is that they don't have the pilots to man the new air wing, so not being able to launch or land aircraft is not such a drawback.

It is possible that the PLAN will figure out how to make the EMALS work, and draw enough planes and pilots from their two existing carriers to start crew training, but since Fujian uses a completely new launch and landing system and flight deck "dance," training is going to take a few years even given the ability to call on experienced crew members from the first two carriers.

All signs are that this ship, like Zumwalt, \was a step too far in advance of what the technology would actually allow.  It looks like heads have already started to roll.

Interesting. How's Emals shaping up on the US carriers?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on December 29, 2023, 07:41:38 PM
Quote from: Threviel on December 29, 2023, 05:40:37 PMInteresting. How's Emals shaping up on the US carriers?

EMALS is working better than the steam catapults it replaces, but hasn't yet met the reliability figures it is expected to eventually meet.  Fine tuning will be ongoing for years.

It is encouraging that Donald Trump, world's greatest genius, hates EMALS.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 29, 2023, 07:47:37 PM
Yeah, the fist is just how the PLA salutes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on December 29, 2023, 08:24:59 PM
Is that just the old communist/leftie raised fist or is there a specific meaning in the PLA/China?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on December 29, 2023, 11:07:32 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 29, 2023, 08:24:59 PMIs that just the old communist/leftie raised fist or is there a specific meaning in the PLA/China?

Turns out I was confidently wrong. The PLA has a normal looking flat hand salute similar to the Royal Navy and US military.

The raised fist thing is, I suppose, some sort of old communist/leftie salute that they use at different times for historical reasons.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zoupa on January 18, 2024, 04:43:43 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEHokjQaYAA-QWl?format=png&name=900x900)

This goes pretty hard.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 23, 2024, 01:23:28 PM
The Chinese stock market is at a five year low and has lost 6.3 trillion dollar over the last two years. The government now blocked some institutional investors from selling stocks, stopped short selling and will inject 280 billion (from state owned enterprises) into the stock market. I am sure that will strengthen investors confidence.  :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 23, 2024, 01:27:54 PM
I'm in two minds about this...

On one hand, I am absolutely prone to schadenfreude when it comes to Xi's China.

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that a massive shock to the Chinese economy would suck for a lot of people across the world.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 23, 2024, 01:53:59 PM
In for a penny in for a pound?
Better it crashes so completely the chinese debt collectors around the world get a "lol no"?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 23, 2024, 01:58:07 PM
Quote from: Josquius on January 23, 2024, 01:53:59 PMIn for a penny in for a pound?
Better it crashes so completely the chinese debt collectors around the world get a "lol no"?

How much of an impact do you think a shock like that would have on global and our local economies and standards of living?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on January 23, 2024, 02:09:33 PM
Is China still a major money lender? Any chance of them calling in loans?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on January 23, 2024, 02:11:19 PM
America owes almost a trillion, but I don't know if it can be called early. Many African countries are also in debt, but I doubt they could pay out if needed.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 23, 2024, 02:24:32 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 23, 2024, 02:11:19 PMAmerica owes almost a trillion, but I don't know if it can be called early. Many African countries are also in debt, but I doubt they could pay out if needed.

China can seize the assets they paid for. Some say this was the intent all along. They did it with Sri Lanka.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 23, 2024, 02:25:56 PM
Quote from: Josquius on January 23, 2024, 02:24:32 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 23, 2024, 02:11:19 PMAmerica owes almost a trillion, but I don't know if it can be called early. Many African countries are also in debt, but I doubt they could pay out if needed.

China can seize the assets they paid for. Some say this was the intent all along. They did it with Sri Lanka.

Yeah, I have read analysis that was the goal of Belt and Road initiative all along.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 23, 2024, 03:52:07 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 23, 2024, 01:27:54 PMI'm in two minds about this...

On one hand, I am absolutely prone to schadenfreude when it comes to Xi's China.

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that a massive shock to the Chinese economy would suck for a lot of people across the world.
From what I read most Chinese consumers are not that exposed to the stock market, so the crash is not that terrible.

The only evitable crash of the real estate market in the other hand...

I guess the overall trajectory of the Chinese economy is negative for them and the world. They are no longer the main driver of the world economy. Instead their over investment into producing industry combined with repressed domestic demand will be bad for the world economy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 24, 2024, 07:55:55 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 23, 2024, 01:27:54 PMI'm in two minds about this...

On one hand, I am absolutely prone to schadenfreude when it comes to Xi's China.

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that a massive shock to the Chinese economy would suck for a lot of people across the world.
I think the third possibility is that it is broadly in line with what Xi has been speaking about and intending to do. I saw this in the Economist, framed as trying to offset the real estate slump:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDdm5AubMAEbBqF?format=png&name=small)

And that could be right but given that the party will be in all the businesses including those banks, I'm not so sure. Xi has talked many times about not wanting money being wasted in non-productive sectors like real estate. This could be to offset losses elsewhere, but I think it could also be the policy goal.

I think there's something to Pettis' view here:
QuoteMichael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
Jan 23
"Wall Street economists are also ringing alarm bells about how long the real-estate slump will last."

In fact some economists were warning two years ago that in a speculative market (i.e. one in which the main reason for buying was... via @WSJ
expectations of further price increases), it would be almost impossible to stabilize prices. This is why, when many were calling for policies to support property prices, we argued that these were counterproductive and couldn't possibly work.
That's because in a speculative market it's all but impossible – once expectations of permanently rising prices have reversed – to revive buying until prices fall to below their fundamental values, e.g, perhaps when rental yields compare favorably with government bond yields.
I think we still have a long way to go for that to be the case.

But we should be clear, although continued weakness in the property markets may hurt the economy in the short term, the faster the property market adjusts, the better for China in the medium and long term.
Here, Japan provides (as it often does) a useful example of what not to do. Japan's property bubble burst in 1991, but property prices didn't stop declining until 2009. While China's bubble wasn't quite as crazy as Japan's, the adjustment lesson is nonetheless the same.
Until prices clear, the property sector will continue being a drag on the economy, and the longer it takes, the greater the cumulative impact. So while many analysts see lower prices as a bad thing, and argue that Beijing should do all it can to slow the adjustment in...
property prices, I'd argue instead that it is a good thing, and that Beijing should speed it up while implementing policies aimed primarily at counterbalancing the costs to the household sector (yes, that means initiating income transfers to the household sector).
No country overly-reliant on non-productive investment in property and infrastructure has ever been able to avoid a very difficult adjustment, and China is an extreme case, but there are better and worse ways to absorb the adjustment costs.
Too-rapid adjustment can lead to crises and hysteresis (e.g. Brazil in 1983). Too slow can lead to decades of stagnation (Japan after 1990). But one way or another the economy will adjust.

I'm not sure whether it's good or bad for the world but Zanza's right that the large increase in industrial capacity (and continuing to move up the supply chain), without increasing domestic demand is going to lead to trade tensions. As elsewhere China's share of global manufacturing is growing at twice the pace of China's share of global GDP and three times its share of global consumption.

Which means it will only work if the rest of the world's trade policy is willing to accept further and bigger Chinese surpluses - and in fairness the US won't, the EU might not, the ROTW might.

But as I say for all the concern about it I always keep thinking that the comparison you often see on real estate bubbles is Japan - and China still has an awful lot of catch-up potential, I think, before that level which may change things. But also, looking at Xi's comments and the sectors China's manufacturing is growing etc - I'm not sure it's not deliberate and I'm not sure it won't work either.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 24, 2024, 08:12:49 AM
If there is an autocracy and things are seemingly going not well, the most likely assumption is that thing are simply not going well, not that the there is A Plan by the Strong Man that makes this actually a good thing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 24, 2024, 08:27:49 AM
Maybe. As I say it's in line with what they're talking about in terms of their policy goals.

But that general attitude strikes me as dangerously complacent especially when dealing with an autocracy that's succeeded (on their own terms) as much as China's has in the last 50 years.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 24, 2024, 08:31:43 AM
Explain how China is succeeding on their own terms? Why all accounts they are now failing quite miserably.

They had the potential to be much more successful on their own terms but the new glorious leader made some pretty bad blunders, which has made success, very unlikely.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 24, 2024, 11:23:50 AM
I was talking about success over the last 50 years which seems pretty self-evident to me.

At the minute Xi's talking is about Chinese productive capacity and know how, particularly in relation to future technologies - green tech (EV, solar etc), AI etc. On the other side of that has been moving from "non-productive" spending such as basically banning education tech companies or this deflation of the real estate bubble (Xi on this: "homes are for living in, not speculating with") - which I think has been bigger and more severe than they'd anticipated. And more broadly redistribution and a "crackdown" on corrution.

So my point is not that they are necessarily succeeding but that we should be open to that possibility. As much as anything I think not being open to that possibility is at risk of being complacent and arrogant and maybe wishcasting a little bit - it seems very Clinton on China's early attempts at controlling the internet: "good luck". There's a 50 year record of relative success by this technocratic autocracy and that what's happening now seems to be within the framework of the policy goals set by the leadership. I think the real estate bubble getting popped has been more severe than expected. But I think the bigger indicator of things going "wrong" (on their terms) would be outcomes that you wouldn't expect from their policy agenda or ones that just seem outside that framework - and I'm not totally sure that's what we're seeing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 24, 2024, 02:33:02 PM
I would argue a 50 year time span is irrelevant (or worse, misleading) to an analysis of the policies that have been adopted by the current leadership.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 24, 2024, 04:27:38 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 24, 2024, 08:31:43 AMExplain how China is succeeding on their own terms? Why all accounts they are now failing quite miserably.

China's success is likely as much a result of American benevolence on the world stage as CCP effort. Don't think China would be where it is today if the US (and later on the West and then the rest of the world) wouldn't have opened up their markets or allowed their technology to be 'transferred'.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 24, 2024, 07:58:44 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 24, 2024, 02:33:02 PMI would argue a 50 year time span is irrelevant (or worse, misleading) to an analysis of the policies that have been adopted by the current leadership.



I dunno. On both Chinese and Marxist time scales 50 years is nothing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 25, 2024, 04:45:09 AM
Quote from: Josquius on January 24, 2024, 07:58:44 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 24, 2024, 02:33:02 PMI would argue a 50 year time span is irrelevant (or worse, misleading) to an analysis of the policies that have been adopted by the current leadership.



I dunno. On both Chinese and Marxist time scales 50 years is nothing.

Nah, I am with CC. It's easy to see, for example, that Xi has returned to the Maoist ways of instituting himself as God Emperor. That was a big no-no for the leadership generation after Mao. There's zero consistency so Winnie has zero claim to the successes of the past 50 years.

It's not like Sunak can claim credit for the victory in WW2.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2024, 05:37:39 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 24, 2024, 02:33:02 PMI would argue a 50 year time span is irrelevant (or worse, misleading) to an analysis of the policies that have been adopted by the current leadership.
I think these are two slightly different things though. On the 50 year record it is that China's technocrats in a country that's very complex have been pretty successful at running it and at delivering the leadership's policy agenda. By that I don't mean any judgement on any policy agenda of the last fifty years, or that there's continuity. Simply that the people running China (at the levels below the leadership) seem pretty competent. I think that earns a benefit of the doubt for the civil service/party technocracy.

Looking at the current outcomes and Xi's policy agenda, I'm not convinced it isn't the result of pretty skilled technocrats trying to deliver that. I think in terms of things going "wrong" I'd be more interested in signs of the economy going in a different direction than the current policy agenda, or the completely unexpected.

Separate to that is Xi's policy agenda. On economics I'm not convinced it's entirely wrong or won't work - because it seems to me it's not a million miles away from what I think the West should do. It seems based on the fact that we're entering an era of great power competition. So China needs to build up its technological self-sufficiency and also its manufacturing dominance, particularly in the key industries of the future especially for energy transition. Plus building alternative markets as a mitigation against trade wars (but that'll only ever mitigate a risk). I think a lot of that would also go for the West so we avoid dependence and vulnerability to China and I can see why they might think the same. Plus some measures to mitigate inequality (though China still seems allergic to building a welfare state), and crackdowns on corruption (always real, but often politically motivated).

I don't think the challenge to that approach is the stock market or real estate - I think it's China's ageing (and soon expected to start shrinking) population and youth unemployment. Again not issues that are unfamiliar to the West. And, which is more unique to China, recklessly aggressive language and style in foreign policy (also a core part of Xi's approach) which turns countries who might be subornable against you, undermining the economics.

QuoteNah, I am with CC. It's easy to see, for example, that Xi has returned to the Maoist ways of instituting himself as God Emperor. That was a big no-no for the leadership generation after Mao. There's zero consistency so Winnie has zero claim to the successes of the past 50 years.
Ish. I think we should be cautious about this. He has re-instituted the cult of personality and is the most dominant/domineering leader since Mao (although I always slightly wonder about the degree Deng's power behind the scenes remembering his dictum for China: "hide your strength").

But he is not particularly like Mao. He might like the red culture and the references back to Mao but there is none of the chaos and there is none of the voluntarism or any of that sort of thing. Not least because of Xi's family background in the Cultural Revolution. To the extent it's "Maoist" it's a very, very controlled version.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 25, 2024, 06:08:44 AM
Quotebut there is none of the chaos and there is none of the voluntarism or any of that sort of thing.

(https://i.imgflip.com/25p2oj.jpg)

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2024, 06:21:14 AM
Maybe. I think there's almost zero sign that any Chinese leader, including Xi, wants to unleash potential disorder in the way Mao did (and enjoyed).

Similarly even on the technological stuff it looks more like the classic communist problem of companies reporting that they're a bit more advanced than they actually were, so the tech/trade war maybe came a bit soon. But it's that problem, not Maoist style leaps forward.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 25, 2024, 06:29:55 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 25, 2024, 06:21:14 AMMaybe. I think there's almost zero sign that any Chinese leader, including Xi, wants to unleash potential disorder in the way Mao did (and enjoyed).

Similarly even on the technological stuff it looks more like the classic communist problem of companies reporting that they're a bit more advanced than they actually were, so the tech/trade war maybe came a bit soon. But it's that problem, not Maoist style leaps forward.

The point is, you cannot claim a 50 years continuity to Xi in any shape of form that gives Xi credit for those 50 years. Besides that being silly in every case, he is the most autocratic power centraliser in China in my own living memory.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2024, 06:41:53 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 25, 2024, 06:29:55 AMThe point is, you cannot claim a 50 years continuity to Xi in any shape of form that gives Xi credit for those 50 years. Besides that being silly in every case, he is the most autocratic power centraliser in China in my own living memory.
I agree. But that's not what I'm doing. I'd also add that if we're discounting continuity, then surely we also need to ask what are the metrics for success under Xi - because why would they be the same as under Hu or Jiang or, say, involve stock market figures? That may have been relevant for the last 30 years or so and under previous Chinese leaders. Given that there is discontinuity - is it still relevant for Xi?

I'm claiming 50 years of continuity for the Chinese state and giving them a lot of credit for that. Not least because I think China's a very big, complex country to run and I think there's always a lag and space between central leadership and actual delivery. So local actors - lower down party functionaries, civil servants, other technocrats etc have a fair amount of lee-way.

Policy has changed under Xi, although I think it's largely evolution from thinking within the Chinese leadership and CCP and there is a significant amount of continuity - with the exception of the cult of personality which I think is a revolutionary change.

So when we're looking at "things going wrong" I think you've got to look at whether it's within the range of expected outcomes from Xi's policies. If it is, then surely a possibility is that it is those technocrats in the Chinese state pivoting and effectively delivering the new policy directive.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 25, 2024, 07:46:18 AM
And all it took were tanks and concentration camps.  ;)

I know what you mean and not squandering becoming the assembly line for the West (like Hungary did or how Russia failed to grab the opportunity to modernise) is an achievement, I am just reluctant to give credit to the Chinese state for anything, because they are too reprehensible. And that does not just mean a moral reluctance to praise them, but also it means there has been no transparency to judge their level of success through. Maybe (likely) a democratic China could have achieved the same or better minus the severe repression of its citizens which would make these successive Communist governments an abject failure, for example.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2024, 08:05:21 AM
Yeah. I understand that.

I think my point is that I think China is a risk precisely because it is a morally reprehensible party state and also a very effective one. Because they are bad morally doesn't mean they are bad at everything and, as I say, I think that way lies complacency.

Similarly I'm not trying to judge against a hypothetical democratic China I simply mean in the context of where China was and other similar countries (acknowledging there aren't really any given China's size etc). I always feel we're maybe a little over-confident on the inevitable triumph of democracies for something that has maybe happened once and only in the last 45 years - like I'm always struck by capitalism's place in the "natural order" of things, given it's a few hundred years old and until recently a regional phenomenon. I feel like alternatives good and bad are possible.

But, you know, it goes to CC's point around agency. I'm not sure Xi is a "great man" yet (I think Putin absolutely is) in terms of that individual altering the course of history v the broad structural shifts. But again, in a lot of ways, I think there is more continuity with Xi than is often depicted (as you'd expect given it's the system he emerged from). I always remember that most Western thinkers in the 70s were absolutely convinced the West was being outstripped by Brezhnev's Soviet Union - and I'm never sure if it was, if the collapse of the Eastern Bloc was already starting or, perhaps, even already baked in. Always the fear of the present :ph34r: :lol:

Edit: And on that point it is striking that there are those other echoes of the 70s for the West: conflict in the Middle East impacting our economies, geopolitical crises disrupting energy supply, inflation, a certain political exhaustion/fatigue/malaise...? :hmm:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 25, 2024, 09:49:04 AM
I have a lot of difficulty accepting the proposition that the policies under Xi are a natural extension and evolution of what had come before.


Everyone I know who is doing business in China noted the dramatic change and got out.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 25, 2024, 10:21:45 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 25, 2024, 09:49:04 AMI have a lot of difficulty accepting the proposition that the policies under Xi are a natural extension and evolution of what had come before.


Everyone I know who is doing business in China noted the dramatic change and got out.


Surely that could mean either
A: as you say, that Xi was a complete change on things,
B: these people totally misread the situation and put too much faith in the power of liberalism to change China
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 25, 2024, 11:16:46 AM
Quote from: Josquius on January 25, 2024, 10:21:45 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 25, 2024, 09:49:04 AMI have a lot of difficulty accepting the proposition that the policies under Xi are a natural extension and evolution of what had come before.


Everyone I know who is doing business in China noted the dramatic change and got out.


Surely that could mean either
A: as you say, that Xi was a complete change on things,
B: these people totally misread the situation and put too much faith in the power of liberalism to change China

It hasn't been difficult over the last several years to notice the different vibe coming out of China, not just becoming a loud nationalist retard like Germany cca. 1890s but also the one-man rule Xi was going for.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2024, 11:42:19 AM
Yeah. There is change for sure - and look this is the GCSE history question to the modern: continuity or change?

I'm not denying there's change and I wouldn't say that Xi's China is a natural extension of what came before. I think there are areas with greater change than others - I think the anti-corruption drive and the cult of personality are the biggest areas of difference.

But I think you often read it in terms of a revolutionary change or rupture with the near past - which then structures how you look at everything - and I'm not sure that's true. I think the other story is that since Deng, China has been working towards advancing technologically and economically (to become a "moderately prosperous society" - now achieved). Not for its own sake (though it helps legitimise party rule) but for the purpose of advancing Chinese power. That was, for want of a better phrase, the "hide your strength, bide your time" phase - and having achieved that is now in the more assertive "standing up" phase.

I think that if the first bit worked and China was able to develop then because of the nature of its state and because of the party (and, perhaps, possibly, arguably because it's just to big to fit within an American-led order; or possibly we'll see the same with India and it is likely in nations rising from the experience of colonialism or century of humiliation into great powers?) was going to end up with a policy a lot like Xi's.

It's a thing I've mentioined before and I wonder about - I've no doubt they're maybe surprised by the cult of personality stuff - but did the Chinese leadership ultimately choose Xi because they knew what they'd be getting. From the party's perspective I think it's possible they were looking for someone to "deal" with corruption because that presented an existential risk to their rule and they wanted someone to assert China's role as it "stands up".
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 25, 2024, 11:45:21 AM
Then the question is did the party choose Xi or did he manage his career successfully enough to be chosen- I've read that he has been very shrewd from his earliest days, purposefully taking less desirable and more out of the way posts to network and build up a support base whilst at the same time giving an impression he wasn't power hungry.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2024, 11:58:07 AM
Quote from: Josquius on January 25, 2024, 11:45:21 AMThen the question is did the party choose Xi or did he manage his career successfully enough to be chosen- I've read that he has been very shrewd from his earliest days, purposefully taking less desirable and more out of the way posts to network and build up a support base whilst at the same time giving an impression he wasn't power hungry.
Oh yeah - absolutely he's an incredibly canny operator. And as I say - I don't know how much what I've said up there is right. I just think there's a plausible case.

I've read similar to that about corruption in Xi's past too.

And also the exact oppopsite could be true. My understanding was that he had been lined up as successor early but Bo Xilai's rise, flair and popularity led to views that he might overtake Xi by the time of actually appointing the successor to Hu. So possibly Xi was the safe, steady pair of hands in contrast to the perceived danger of Bo? Though as I say I think the increasing confrontation with the West etc was probably pretty inevitable.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 25, 2024, 02:34:31 PM
Prior to the takeover, Xi was definitely seen as the safe, steady, non-controversial pair of hands. 100% this.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 25, 2024, 03:50:52 PM
I'm 50-50 on the main topic under discussion right now.

On one hand I don't want to underestimate the CCP regime because they're autocrats, so obviously we're better simply by virtue of not being autocrats. That way lies complacency.

On the other hand, I also don't want to uncritically buy into the whole "those devious Chinese and cultural propensity for generational thinking; whatever they're doing is obviously the result of a cunning long term scheme" thing either.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: celedhring on January 25, 2024, 04:01:12 PM
I'm kinda not entirely sold on this idea of Xi being this shrewd forward thinker after the way he handled the whole Covid-zero mess just not to admit he was wrong (because dictators can never be wrong).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 25, 2024, 04:05:35 PM
A thought that's sprung from some of the conversation here...

General maxim I believe to be true: one of the weaknesses of autocratic forms of government is in succession;
1) there's a higher propensity for chaotic and destructive power struggles; and
2) if the succession ends up with an imbecile in power, it's a threat to the country and system.

A thing I thought to be true, but now I'm not sure: the CCP, post Mao, has done an excellent job managing the succession. They ended up with relatively competent people in power, and the successions were generally smooth.

However, as Sheilbh points out perhaps the post-Mao, pre-Xi years of governance can rightly be seen as an uninterrupted period of rule by Deng, with his approved successors acting as figureheads. Xi's ascent was the  first real succession. As such was marked by greater instability (tanks in the streets, the persecution of the other candidate, continued attacks on rival power centres) and the dismantling of the norms of the previous ruler (Xi now having the role of Chairman for life, rather than being a term limited representative of the party).

Therefore, the notion that the CCP might have found a way to mitigate one of the weaknesses of autocracy may be premature.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 25, 2024, 04:10:50 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 25, 2024, 04:01:12 PMI'm kinda not entirely sold on this idea of Xi being this shrewd forward thinker after the way he handled the whole Covid-zero mess just not to admit he was wrong (because dictators can never be wrong).

The prevailing view in my sphere of Chinese analysts is that Xi is a complete fucking moron. He's gifted at looking unthreatening to his superiors (in part because he's a moron), and incredibly thin-skinned (and therefore unwilling to risk looking like an idiot), which helped him rise to his current position (combined with the Red Princeling network he was born into).

He's the Chairman because he lucked into being the compromise candidate for cliques opposed to Bo Xilai rather than as a result of a clever campaign of scheming. Someone had to rise to the top, and it turned out to be him.

Now I'm not expert enough to say whether it's true or not with great confidence, but I certainly see the logic and haven't seen any clear counter indications.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2024, 04:43:43 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 25, 2024, 03:50:52 PMOn the other hand, I also don't want to uncritically buy into the whole "those devious Chinese and cultural propensity for generational thinking; whatever they're doing is obviously the result of a cunning long term scheme" thing either.
Absolutely - and to be clear I don't really mean that. I always hate the Western short termism v Chinese long termism nonsense (on both sides :lol:).

The relative success of the last 50 years has been, as with every other country, actually dealing with the short term and with crises. There are over-arching policies within that for a period, like reform and opening, but it is as much navigating an inflation crisis in the 80s, the fall of the USSR, Tiananmen (and the - as it turns out, limited - fallout), the emergence of the internet, the global financial crisis, covid etc. Just like Western societies or any other. My view on that I suppose is that I think it's been common to underestimate the role of ideology on China's leadership, while, perhaps, overestimating it or conversely underestimating the technocratic capability of China's party civil servants/functionaries. Indeed I think some of that success - particularly their response to the global financial crisis and covid - strongly buttressed the party's legitimacy internally but may have made them a little overconfident?

Separate from that sort of operational/technocratic ability is the leadership. And I take the point on "generational thinking" etc. Obviously a lot of the leadership is also pivoting and responding to those events in the short term. I think there is a degree of "generational" strategy within China's leadership purely because of the way they're brought into the system with the generation model and they are socialised with party elders traditionally holding onto significant power (or power networks at least). I think that does create for a degree of continuity that is - by design - absent in a democratic system.

And I do think - which is why I wonder how much Xi matters at this point - that there are structural forces about a rival power etc.

Again generally my basic point is that we should be open to the possibility that the Chinese leadership and state are competent. I think there's an interesting contrast between common perceptions of Russia's leadership v China's.

QuoteI'm kinda not entirely sold on this idea of Xi being this shrewd forward thinker after the way he handled the whole Covid-zero mess just not to admit he was wrong (because dictators can never be wrong).
Sure. Zero covid ended as a mess and a humiliation. But at the same time China never had a national lockdown, had significantly fewer deaths per capita and significantly less impact to economic activity than most of the West.

I think the narrative on China's response to covid depends on when you look at it and I'm not sure that just how it ends is the most accurate picture. It was a source of legitimacy and then a challenge to it.

QuoteA thing I thought to be true, but now I'm not sure: the CCP, post Mao, has done an excellent job managing the succession. They ended up with relatively competent people in power, and the successions were generally smooth.

However, as Sheilbh points out perhaps the post-Mao, pre-Xi years of governance can rightly be seen as an uninterrupted period of rule by Deng, with his approved successors acting as figureheads. Xi's ascent was the  first real succession. As such was marked by greater instability (tanks in the streets, the persecution of the other candidate, continued attacks on rival power centres) and the dismantling of the norms of the previous ruler (Xi now having the role of Chairman for life, rather than being a term limited representative of the party).
I need to read the new biography of Deng (and the Xi one which is meant to be excellent).

I think you're right that it's the biggest risk for autocratic regimes - not sure what the Chinese equivalent is of Swan Lake playing on TV. And I don't think Deng was necessarily running the country behind the scenes. And as I say I don't know but I just wonder if we under-estimate his role and influence in retirement. There was no cult of personality but given his prestige and what he'd accomplished and also just his sheer time at the top (with all those networks) means his power must have been immense.

On Mao-ish behaviour for example - look at Deng's Southern Tour. From what I've read the central committee was intending to pause reform and opening to retrench when the supposedly retired Deng launched it - and the central committee had no idea it was going to happen or what he was going to do or say. I think I read that Beijing refused to even comment on it while it was happening because they were just watching like everyone else. Ultimately it breathes life back into Deng's agenda which is re-launched. The thing I can't help but think of is Mao swimming the Yangtze.

I wonder if we're slightly buying Deng's own myth of himself?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 25, 2024, 04:53:31 PM
Hes a princeling sure. He was always going to do ok in life.
But it still must have took some talent and ability to get through all the lower levels of politics to even be in the conversation for leadership.
He isn't like trump in being able to completely just skip over everything and right to the top contest.
I could see luck explaining a lot at the earlier stages but such consistent and sustained luck?
He must have some skill somewhere.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on January 25, 2024, 05:30:56 PM
Some people are just lucky enough to fail upwards. We've all worked with those people, no doubt. Not saying Xi mastered that level of luck, I don't know enough, but I can see it happening. At some point you hit a momentum of power and connections and it's hard to stop.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 25, 2024, 07:57:09 PM
Quote from: Josquius on January 25, 2024, 10:21:45 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 25, 2024, 09:49:04 AMI have a lot of difficulty accepting the proposition that the policies under Xi are a natural extension and evolution of what had come before.


Everyone I know who is doing business in China noted the dramatic change and got out.


Surely that could mean either
A: as you say, that Xi was a complete change on things,
B: these people totally misread the situation and put too much faith in the power of liberalism to change China

No, B does not follow.  They noted the changes Xi brought in and got out.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 25, 2024, 08:18:13 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 25, 2024, 05:30:56 PMSome people are just lucky enough to fail upwards. We've all worked with those people, no doubt. Not saying Xi mastered that level of luck, I don't know enough, but I can see it happening. At some point you hit a momentum of power and connections and it's hard to stop.
Yeah. I think the biggest challenge to that is the consolidation of power and cult of personality.

My general default is that people who become leaders of countries - especially a country like China - are effective, skilled politicians. But even if we assume he rises to the top by accident I don't see how the next step is ruthless consolidation of power, destruction of your predecessor's faction and institution of a cult of personality not seen since the founding father of your party/country. Especially given we know of the issues that previous leaders have had establishing themselves - Jiang and Hu were in office several years before they were in power.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 25, 2024, 09:32:18 PM
Well yeah if you define "exceptional ability" to equal "rises to the top" then of course anyone who rises to the top has exceptional ability.

It may, however, be that that exceptional ability to rise to the top in a particular political system is not the same as exceptional ability in making decisions when in power. Similarly, it may not map one to one to other traits that are more typically considered signs of general intelligence.

But yeah, by that metric Bashar Assad, Kim Jung Un, and Liz Truss also have exceptional abilities.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 26, 2024, 02:47:31 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 25, 2024, 09:32:18 PMWell yeah if you define "exceptional ability" to equal "rises to the top" then of course anyone who rises to the top has exceptional ability.

It may, however, be that that exceptional ability to rise to the top in a particular political system is not the same as exceptional ability in making decisions when in power. Similarly, it may not map one to one to other traits that are more typically considered signs of general intelligence.

But yeah, by that metric Bashar Assad, Kim Jung Un, and Liz Truss also have exceptional abilities.

Not so sure on Kim and Assad given they just had to be better than their siblings.
But on Truss yes. She absolutely must be pretty good at politics to even become an MP never mind then becoming PM.
The issue with her terrible reign likely coming from the fact the skills required to rise to this place: schmoozing, telling people what they want to hear, and so on, are completely irrelevant to actually understanding economics on any level.

There does tend to be a correlation between one sort of intelligence and another - eg a huge majority of professors leaning progressive rather than trumpy - but this isn't absolute.

With xi you have a guy who ticked off all the abilities to get himself to the top, but then to also do a "good" ruler (in the sense of tightening his rule, crushing his enemies, etc...). There's probably a fair bit of overlap there. Maybe the less desirable jobs xi took early career are weirdly better places to practice the skills to be dictator than the sexier jobs the expected path would have involved?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 26, 2024, 06:31:00 AM
QuoteIt may, however, be that that exceptional ability to rise to the top in a particular political system is not the same as exceptional ability in making decisions when in power

I think that has been extensively proven during both recent and not so recent history. Stalin, Trump, Orban, Putin, Boris Johnson, the list is endless.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 27, 2024, 03:10:12 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 26, 2024, 06:31:00 AM
QuoteIt may, however, be that that exceptional ability to rise to the top in a particular political system is not the same as exceptional ability in making decisions when in power

I think that has been extensively proven during both recent and not so recent history. Stalin, Trump, Orban, Putin, Boris Johnson, the list is endless.

Biden etc etc
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 28, 2024, 02:15:17 PM
My favourite Chinese language pop-artist has released a song celebrating the upcoming Year of the Dragon and 5000 years of Chinese civilization:


Another recent song of his also caught my attention. I don't think Mono would approve:

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 29, 2024, 06:45:58 AM
I love the whole Winnie-the-Pooh thing. If apparatchiks let it slide when it was a thing, nobody would remember it now that for a week or two Xi was likened to it. Now it's stuck on him forever.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 29, 2024, 11:39:24 AM
A Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of Evergrande now. The company has about 300 billion dollars debt. Might be just an exception or the first of a wave that will destabilise the Chinese real estate sector, which contributed an outsized share of GDP and taxes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 29, 2024, 12:44:18 PM
So I guess there's two schools on Evergrande?

1) Oh man the Chinese economy is in trouble.

2) This is a deliberate move by Xi to recalibrate the economy on "the real" (i.e. making things, not speculating). So far I've only heard this from Sheilbh, but I'm sure he's not alone.

Thoughts from Languish?

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on January 29, 2024, 12:50:29 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 29, 2024, 12:44:18 PMSo I guess there's two schools on Evergrande?

1) Oh man the Chinese economy is in trouble.

2) This is a deliberate move by Xi to recalibrate the economy on "the real" (i.e. making things, not speculating). So far I've only heard this from Sheilbh, but I'm sure he's not alone.

Thoughts from Languish?



My main thought is the two points are not mutually exclusive - that Xi's desire to focus on "the real" economy is going to cause a lot of trouble for China's economy...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 29, 2024, 01:10:52 PM
The Chinese economy already makes way too many things and does not consume enough. So focussing on making even more will have dimishing returns and will cause foreign markets to increase trade barriers.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 29, 2024, 01:20:18 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 29, 2024, 12:44:18 PMSo I guess there's two schools on Evergrande?

1) Oh man the Chinese economy is in trouble.

2) This is a deliberate move by Xi to recalibrate the economy on "the real" (i.e. making things, not speculating). So far I've only heard this from Sheilbh, but I'm sure he's not alone.

Thoughts from Languish?



I am not sure how this could be the latter other than to say, I think that an assumption is being made that the liquidation will take place in a way that mirrors what would occur in a country that has a strong process for such things. But in the Chinese context, this will be highly chaotic.  Will the Hong Kong judgement be scrupulously observed on mainland, China?  How will foreign creditors be treated in the liquidation process? To what extent will endemic corruption determine how these assets are dealt with during the liquidation process?

And that's just off the top of my head.  One would have to have a very rosy view of the world to think that this was a masterstroke plan.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 29, 2024, 02:30:45 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 29, 2024, 12:50:29 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 29, 2024, 12:44:18 PMSo I guess there's two schools on Evergrande?

1) Oh man the Chinese economy is in trouble.

2) This is a deliberate move by Xi to recalibrate the economy on "the real" (i.e. making things, not speculating). So far I've only heard this from Sheilbh, but I'm sure he's not alone.

Thoughts from Languish?



My main thought is the two points are not mutually exclusive - that Xi's desire to focus on "the real" economy is going to cause a lot of trouble for China's economy...

Yeah, definitely aspects of both.
See also mao.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 29, 2024, 02:34:06 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 29, 2024, 11:39:24 AMA Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of Evergrande now. The company has about 300 billion dollars debt. Might be just an exception or the first of a wave that will destabilise the Chinese real estate sector, which contributed an outsized share of GDP and taxes.
Also the impact on local government balance sheets. Although the 2-3 year period since the first Evergrande crisis may have allowed them to get out more safely.

QuoteMy main thought is the two points are not mutually exclusive - that Xi's desire to focus on "the real" economy is going to cause a lot of trouble for China's economy...
Yep. And see just last week the central bank cutting interest rates and setting up a unit for loans to the tech and green sectors (as well as a few other areas) - when it's not clear that the issue is a lack of capital but, as Zanza pointed out lack of domestic demand.

I'd add that real estate bubbles bursting are almost always very bad for an economy - it doesn't mean that the better option is to keep the bubble going (this goes to the general levels of debt in a society being a risk, not just government debt - and total Chinese debt is almost 300% of GDP). But I think they are linked and China is trying to shift growth model away from local governments relying on property developers to hit the centre's targets (and worth noting that, so far, the central party has broadly required local governments to complete unfinished developments). Whether they're able to hit the targets any other way is another question.

As I say my view is in part prompted from what I've read from Chinese statements but also from the Economist, which characterised this shift as being banks trying to offset real estate losses with manufacturing:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDdm5AubMAEbBqF?format=png&name=small)
No doubt that'd be right in a market economy. But I'm not sure it is in China. I think it's more likely to be policy/reflect a decision set by the party. Not sure it's just off-setting losses/increased risk in one type of customer.

And on that chart - in 2017, Xi made his "houses are for living in, not speculating with" comments. In 2019-20 they introduced a series of new regulatory requirements on real estate - Evergrande failed all of them. Then in 2021 as regulatory pressure increased, Xi published a piece in the party's theory journal on "understanding the new development stage" all about the "new development philophy" which was about creating "quality growth". Industrial policy, focus on tech and green manufacturing all fit into that. My totally personal guess is that Xi's piece was to make clear he was personally backing the regulatory pressure on real estate developers - so you (party leaders in local government, financial sector, the real estate companies themselves) either get in line, or you're opposing him. It wasn't either technocrats free-lancing in an area without much attention from the leadership, or something he'd give way on.

Even though Xi is unprecedentedly powerful I think the CCP is still about managing and balancing various interest groups within the party, which takes time. That may go wrong. Crisis management is difficult and there may be unknown unknowns out there (although the slow motion demolition may have allowed those to be squared away) which could destabilise unexpected bits of the economy. All those are big risks (although, this isn't the main story on Caixin) where things could get out of hand. Not to mention on the "quality growth" model - as Zanza says, where is the demand supposed to come from? Will it just be shifting one pile of debt to other sectors?

On this the "what if it works" point is whether the slow process of increased scrutiny from the central bank, increased regulatory pressure plus signs from the party leadership has given time to square away those risks. Are they able to deflate the real estate bubble, resolve Evergrande and other heavily indebted real estate companies without destabilising the wider economy and without causing crises elsewhere in the economy? That's challenging to say the least.

Also there are lots of ways China is and should be treated as a special case - but 70-something leader moaning about the weakness of the "real economy" v speculators and real estate doesn't seem like one of them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on January 29, 2024, 03:30:38 PM
And again, both you and the Economist engage in an analysis that is only valid in a society with a strong Rule of Law.  The analysis looks great on paper, and an imaginary China where there is something resembling a viable legal liquidation process.

But what will happen is very different and chaotic and will be dictated mainly by whoever is in the right position, or knowns those in the right position, to take advantage of this large transfer of assets.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: grumbler on January 29, 2024, 07:47:16 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 29, 2024, 12:44:18 PMSo I guess there's two schools on Evergrande?

1) Oh man the Chinese economy is in trouble.

2) This is a deliberate move by Xi to recalibrate the economy on "the real" (i.e. making things, not speculating). So far I've only heard this from Sheilbh, but I'm sure he's not alone.

Thoughts from Languish?

There has always been in China a bit of a moralist streak, taken from Confucianism, that argues that the people with real value to society are those who make things and that those who merely trade them are parasites.   
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 29, 2024, 09:58:49 PM
Yeah the "old man yells at economy-clouds, but economy has to follow because he's chairman of the CCP" explanation is far from implausible.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on January 29, 2024, 10:03:29 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 29, 2024, 07:47:16 PMThere has always been in China a bit of a moralist streak, taken from Confucianism, that argues that the people with real value to society are those who make things and that those who merely trade them are parasites.   

Many western cultures had that too, wonder when it went away. Age of exploration?

As for chinas moving economic goals. I don't think they're moving to manufacturing and thus housing is failing, I think they're moving to manufacturing because housing is failing. Only so long you can prop up a housing bubble... unless you're Canada I guess.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 30, 2024, 04:18:46 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 29, 2024, 09:58:49 PMYeah the "old man yells at economy-clouds, but economy has to follow because he's chairman of the CCP" explanation is far from implausible.
Yes. But this is where my China-hawkery leads me to a slightly uncomfortable place of maybe they're right?

Because I think what the West needs to do is to build up its industrial capacity particularly in cutting edge technology, through state industrial policy etc. Basically for the mirror opposite reason. I want to reduce our dependence on and vulnerability to China and, by extension, the CCP - and I think that matters more than growth in itself or the nostrums of a particular world order.

I think driving Xi's desire to move to "quality" growth and focus on developing those commanding heights of 20th century industry is because growth matters less (especially in a state so able, if reluctant, to re-distribute). What's most important is the autonomy of the regime to avoid dependence and vulnerability so extending the CCP's ability to determine China's future, and by extension, the world's in the 20th century.

As a random example, from the NYT last year:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFHhTaTWoAEj_C0?format=jpg&name=small)

And the other tension is - is it good for the world? I read today that Europe is capable of meeting about 5% of its energy transition targets without Chinese solar imports. Similarly Europe's move like a whale into LNG markets (because of Russia's invasion) has massively hurt South Africa and Pakistan's ability to import LNG which was a staple for them, they are both turning to China to massively import Chinese solar. Good for the world, bad for the West (and maybe oversupply and cheap goods in green tech isn't the worst thing?) :ph34r:

I find it hard to say that, no, a model more focused on real estate speculation is the right one if those are your priorities - if it is just growth for its own sake, maybe. And I think a focus on growth for its own sake or the theory of our model is what got the West into the trouble of using Russia for cheap energy and China for a cheap manufacturing base.

As I say I think there are risks for China - youth unemployment, demand shortfalls (or where is it coming from especially if Europe and the US starts imposing trade restrictions), debt shuffling around, risks to state credibility. I'm just not totally sure they are the same risks as or that they result from a general theory of autocracy.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: PJL on January 30, 2024, 05:05:45 PM
I do think the old idea that globalisation (at least economic) was supposed to democratise the world but instead what has happened is that it has corrupted democracies due to the influx of Russian & Saudi petro-dollars and has strengthened the authoritarians in China and elsewhere. Back 20-30 years ago the idea of taking control of the commanding heights of the economy that left wing governments wanted to do 60-70 years ago seemed laughable. Now, in a way it seems like they might have had the right idea to some extent and it's reflected in Biden's economic policy and Labour's Green New Deal / securonomics proposals.

Couple that with all the financial / geo-political & pandemic / supply shocks we've had, it now looks as though the economic ideas of Reganomics and Thatcherism may have been the naive idealism instead of what went on before.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on January 30, 2024, 05:17:56 PM
The world could of course build a car battery without China. It's just a dirty business and doing it elsewhere would be more expensive. Same with solar panels.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 30, 2024, 05:37:26 PM
There is fundamentally something very broken in the modern economic system that just wasn't there 50 years ago that absolutely everything comes down to who gets precisely what profits skimmed off.
Just look at the shit trying to ramp up shell production for ukraine
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Valmy on January 30, 2024, 06:55:56 PM
Quote from: PJL on January 30, 2024, 05:05:45 PMI do think the old idea that globalisation (at least economic) was supposed to democratise the world but instead what has happened is that it has corrupted democracies due to the influx of Russian & Saudi petro-dollars and has strengthened the authoritarians in China and elsewhere. Back 20-30 years ago the idea of taking control of the commanding heights of the economy that left wing governments wanted to do 60-70 years ago seemed laughable. Now, in a way it seems like they might have had the right idea to some extent and it's reflected in Biden's economic policy and Labour's Green New Deal / securonomics proposals.

That is what I ultimately had to uncomfortably conclude. FDR and the New Dealers were correct. You had to control the strategic necessities for your economy and ensure prosperity for the average Joes and Janes and gender fluids or you were setting yourself up for disaster both domestically and in foreign affairs.

Hence my slide leftwards.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 30, 2024, 06:59:27 PM
Quote from: Josquius on January 30, 2024, 05:37:26 PMThere is fundamentally something very broken in the modern economic system that just wasn't there 50 years ago that absolutely everything comes down to who gets precisely what profits skimmed off.
Just look at the shit trying to ramp up shell production for ukraine

Hasn't it always been like that, except with the people doing the skimming being more secure in their power to maintain their take?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 30, 2024, 07:15:42 PM
Quote from: PJL on January 30, 2024, 05:05:45 PMI do think the old idea that globalisation (at least economic) was supposed to democratise the world but instead what has happened is that it has corrupted democracies due to the influx of Russian & Saudi petro-dollars and has strengthened the authoritarians in China and elsewhere. Back 20-30 years ago the idea of taking control of the commanding heights of the economy that left wing governments wanted to do 60-70 years ago seemed laughable. Now, in a way it seems like they might have had the right idea to some extent and it's reflected in Biden's economic policy and Labour's Green New Deal / securonomics proposals.

Couple that with all the financial / geo-political & pandemic / supply shocks we've had, it now looks as though the economic ideas of Reganomics and Thatcherism may have been the naive idealism instead of what went on before.
I basically agree.

But. 20 years ago I was a Blairite ultra who believed in the inevitability of globalisation and the third way as the route to mitigating its impact. So I also wonder if I'm not just, fundamentally a bit of a weather vane swinging to whatever's current? :hmm:

I am however strongly of the view that any settlement or order contains within it the flaws that will ultimately bring it to an end/lead to its replacement. And I'm sure that's true of securonomics - whether Biden, Xi or Starmer's version.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on January 30, 2024, 08:05:40 PM
I do think globalisation and the victory of progressive democracies is "inevitable" - it won't happen automatically and will take effort but it is more likely this happens than the alternatives.
However that liberal economics would be the vanguard of this.... No.
I do wonder how people were so mistaken on this. Was it even good faith or just greed?

Quote from: Jacob on January 30, 2024, 06:59:27 PM
Quote from: Josquius on January 30, 2024, 05:37:26 PMThere is fundamentally something very broken in the modern economic system that just wasn't there 50 years ago that absolutely everything comes down to who gets precisely what profits skimmed off.
Just look at the shit trying to ramp up shell production for ukraine

Hasn't it always been like that, except with the people doing the skimming being more secure in their power to maintain their take?
Maybe.
But it is better if you know precisely who is taking what cut.
It's not the fact people in the system are making money which is really hobbling the west (though some are taking much too much) but the endless negotiation and jostling for what in the grand scheme are pennies.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2024, 04:13:26 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 30, 2024, 05:17:56 PMThe world could of course build a car battery without China. It's just a dirty business and doing it elsewhere would be more expensive. Same with solar panels.

Orbán has clearly launched a massive program of having Chinese battery factories built in Hungary. A speculation I read that this also serves to secure his regime against German political pressures, as German auto makers will benefit from Hungary and not their own country being turned into a toxic dump to supply the fake green revolution of electric wheeled battleships.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on January 31, 2024, 06:17:36 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 30, 2024, 05:17:56 PMThe world could of course build a car battery without China. It's just a dirty business and doing it elsewhere would be more expensive. Same with solar panels.
Sure - although Chinese dominance in the upstream stages (and there seems to be a strategy of building a dominant position down the entire supply chain) is more of a challenge there.

I suppose that attitude works as long as we think disruptions to supply chains or geopolitics intervening are relatively unlikely and I'm not sure they are. The world could build them without China, but from basically a standing start because of a supply chain crisis might be challenging with lots of knock on effects in the rest of the economy.

Ultimately we're choosing cheap and outsourcing the environmental impact over security of supply - which is a valid choice. But I'm not sure it's the right one given how I view the Chinese state/party.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on January 31, 2024, 07:32:51 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_industry_in_Quebec

Except the last assembly which will be done in Ontario, Quebec's being building a battery industry.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 31, 2024, 11:19:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2024, 04:13:26 AMOrbán has clearly launched a massive program of having Chinese battery factories built in Hungary. A speculation I read that this also serves to secure his regime against German political pressures, as German auto makers will benefit from Hungary and not their own country being turned into a toxic dump to supply the fake green revolution of electric wheeled battleships.

That's quite vehement.

Is your opinion that electrification in general is a crock, or is your problem purely with electric cars?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 31, 2024, 11:29:55 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 31, 2024, 11:19:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2024, 04:13:26 AMOrbán has clearly launched a massive program of having Chinese battery factories built in Hungary. A speculation I read that this also serves to secure his regime against German political pressures, as German auto makers will benefit from Hungary and not their own country being turned into a toxic dump to supply the fake green revolution of electric wheeled battleships.

That's quite vehement.

Is your opinion that electrification in general is a crock, or is your problem purely with electric cars?

isn't tamas saying that as the opinion of Orban and Cro(nies)?

that said: batteries aren't exactly clean, but technological advances can hopefully rectify that
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 31, 2024, 12:32:03 PM
I took "the fake green revolution of electric wheeled battleships" to represent Tamas' personal opinion, not Orban's - but perhaps I was mistaken.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2024, 12:42:17 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 31, 2024, 12:32:03 PMI took "the fake green revolution of electric wheeled battleships" to represent Tamas' personal opinion, not Orban's - but perhaps I was mistaken.

You are right it was my own opinion (who knows what Orban's is, I recon he doesn't care). I feel like EVs are a step forward but not what they are made out to be. Mainly, electricity still needs to be generated. My favourite example is Germany using a lot of coal-burning power plants. EVs there are coal-driven cars, not exactly green.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on January 31, 2024, 12:50:52 PM
Obviously the answer is wood burning cars!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2024, 12:57:39 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 31, 2024, 12:50:52 PMObviously the answer is wood burning cars!

 :lol:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 01, 2024, 04:33:58 PM
Re: the Year of the Dragon music video I shared, here's another video pointing out many of the anti-CCP swipes and current event references in the video:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on February 01, 2024, 11:01:21 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2024, 12:42:17 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 31, 2024, 12:32:03 PMI took "the fake green revolution of electric wheeled battleships" to represent Tamas' personal opinion, not Orban's - but perhaps I was mistaken.

You are right it was my own opinion (who knows what Orban's is, I recon he doesn't care). I feel like EVs are a step forward but not what they are made out to be. Mainly, electricity still needs to be generated. My favourite example is Germany using a lot of coal-burning power plants. EVs there are coal-driven cars, not exactly green.
Even with the current energy mix in Germany (>50% renewable, 20% coal), electric cars are better on emissions than ICE cars when considering both manufacturing and driving (about 40% in a recent study, going to grow to 55% at the end of the decade).

The environmentally problematic aspect about electric cars is not emissions, but very high water consumption in manufacturing and the need for scarce resources being mined. The latter will be addressed by more battery recycling though (mandated by EU starting in 26%).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Grey Fox on February 02, 2024, 01:41:27 PM
You guys can send any electric cars you don't want to Quebec where we have 99% renewable energy generation.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2024, 02:25:17 PM
On batteries... The British volt saga is quite hilarious. Really needs a writeup at some point. But given its in the north it is largely flying under the radar.


Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2024, 12:42:17 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 31, 2024, 12:32:03 PMI took "the fake green revolution of electric wheeled battleships" to represent Tamas' personal opinion, not Orban's - but perhaps I was mistaken.

You are right it was my own opinion (who knows what Orban's is, I recon he doesn't care). I feel like EVs are a step forward but not what they are made out to be. Mainly, electricity still needs to be generated. My favourite example is Germany using a lot of coal-burning power plants. EVs there are coal-driven cars, not exactly green.
Yep.
As mentioned in the past I see big vibes from a big section of the right (helped by Musk being a thing) to really whole heartedly push EVs as something that solves climate change without anything having to actually change.

Surprised you're saying it though tbh. Weren't you very pro car?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 02, 2024, 03:38:20 PM
Tamas is not pro-car, he's just anti-nonsense (using Tamas' definition of nonsense).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 02, 2024, 03:56:30 PM
Although he is quite pro-car :P
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 05, 2024, 08:09:12 PM
Think there's a lot to this piece which is far more expert and better expressed (and slightly different) than what I was trying to say, but I think gets the point. This is from Richard McGregor who wrote The Party which I think is still talked about as the best book on how the party operates within China, even though it came out in 2010:
QuoteWhy the Peak China story is overdone
China's economy is no longer about to dash past the US, but its ability to mobilise capital, people, resources and military muscle for specific purposes remains enormous.
Richard McGregorColumnist
Feb 2, 2024 – 11.22am

China's slowing economy has produced at least one growth industry – in economists congratulating themselves for predicting that the country's business model would inevitably hit the wall.

But policymakers in Australia and elsewhere should be wary of making the next leap, and embracing the argument that China's military and geopolitical clout is waning as well.

The (mostly Western) economists' victory lap is fair enough on one level. They correctly judged that China's overbuilt property market, worth about a quarter of the economy, was unsustainable.

The Chinese leadership has long understood this, but held off until 2020 to burst the bubble, when they ordered banks to cut lending to developers to guide the sector onto a sustainable path.


What was meant to be a kind of controlled demolition has turned into something else, a slow-rolling series of disruptive bankruptcies of some of the biggest developers in the world.

The decision of a Hong Kong court this week to liquidate Evergrande, the country's largest developer with debts of US$300 billion ($455 billion), symbolises the size of the hole the industry was allowed to dig itself into.

The liquidation will have minimal practical effect – Hong Kong creditors will have little, if any, access to Evergrande's mainland assets, which have largely been frozen, seized or sold off already.

But the property downturn will weigh on the public, who have watched the value of their homes fall or, in some cases, have lost deposits on unbuilt apartments altogether. As a result, anxious consumers are saving rather than spending.

This matters, as Communist China has a far higher rate of home ownership than Australia, in part because there are so few other assets to invest in.

The capital account is closed, so they can't easily invest offshore, and the local sharemarket, never a reliable investment, is in a deep slump.

So far, China has been unable to find sources of growth to replace property outside of its massive industrial base, but that creates a different problem. Chinese industries have ramped up production, but can't sell their goods at home, so they are exported.

Already locked in a trade war with the US, Beijing faces another one this year with Europe, which confronts the prospect of deindustrialisation from a wave of cheap Chinese electric vehicles.

The weakening Chinese economy has real world geopolitical impacts, as it compounds the country's slow-burning fiscal crisis, with high-short term debts and rising aged care spending as the population declines.

That, in turn, will cut into defence budgets and the literally hundreds of billions the Chinese state is throwing at its efforts to catch up and surpass the US and its allies in high-tech.

All of this is important for obvious reasons. A strong economy is the key to China's ability to challenge the US and portray itself globally as a solid and enduring political alternative to Western liberal democracies.

It is worth remembering that the hugely influential arguments that Australian strategist Hugh White mounted on China policy are primarily economic.

White's assertion that Australia should radically break from its traditional alignment with the US and accept that China as the premier power in Asia is tied to a single projection, by the Australian Treasury in 2017.

The Foreign Policy White Paper, published that year, included a Treasury forecast that by 2030, China's economy would be nearly double the size of America's, based on spending power.

The world looks very different today. Post-COVID, you will find few economists, even in Beijing itself, who think that the Chinese economy is going to race past the US and eventually dwarf it in size.

But the Chinese economy is slowing, not collapsing. We are not so much reaching Peak China; it is more like Plateau China, as one commentator dubbed the current phase.

The focus on property sometimes crowds out China's formidable strengths.

China is responsible for about a third of global manufacturing. Increasingly, the value captured by it doesn't go to foreign investors. It starts and stays at home.

"As one set of headlines has declared Peak China, another has trumpeted China's sudden emergence as the world's biggest car exporter, and its domination of most links of the green energy supply chain," wrote Arthur Kroeber, of Gavekal Economics.


Even with many weakness, China's party-state has another strength – the ability to mobilise capital, people, resources and technology, for a singular purpose.

What other nation could turn its ordinary fishing fleet into a militia that acts as an extension of its navy and coast guard, and an instrument of power projection into its nearby contested seas?

Xi Jinping, China's communist party leader, has made it his mission to strengthen that leverage, by ensuring any nominally private actors in the economy, be they entrepreneurs or NGOs, are firmly aligned with his program.

It is true that China may no longer be a 10-foot-tall giant sweeping all aside, as much as it likes to project such strength. But it is not drifting into oblivion.

Xi and the ruling party remain unflinching in their ambitions to take Taiwan and dominant the South China Sea. They rehearse these objectives every day.

Diminished it may be, China is still big enough to challenge the US, and will remain so for decades. Quibbling about a few percentage points of growth here or there won't change that.

Chinese property might have peaked. China has not.

Richard McGregor is a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney./quote]
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 05, 2024, 09:13:03 PM
Speaking of "the ability to mobilise capital, people, resources and technology, for a singular purpose" - there's apparently a space race on, including to put people on the moon and eventually build a base on the South side of the moon (where there may be significant amounts of hydrogen).
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on February 05, 2024, 10:52:22 PM
I read articles on Chinese government institutions being overburdened with debt and having too little revenue sources besides land sales. That would put their ability to raise capital into question. On the other hand, with deflation, they can just print money I guess.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2024, 03:20:07 AM

Time to dump my tencent shares.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on February 08, 2024, 07:28:00 AM
Not available in my area. What's going on now?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2024, 07:30:10 AM
Dude says China's going to melt down, much worse than US 07.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 08, 2024, 09:17:15 AM
To be fair haven't we heard that every year since Tiananmen?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on February 08, 2024, 10:43:56 AM
China melting down is just now becoming news for some people?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: crazy canuck on February 08, 2024, 10:47:06 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 08, 2024, 09:17:15 AMTo be fair haven't we heard that every year since Tiananmen?

You may have missed that time between 1989 and 2020 when China became the manufacturer for the world
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: PJL on February 08, 2024, 11:45:13 AM
China isn't going to melt down. It's just going to be Japan 2.0 with it's massive debt overhang due to it's inflated property boom going bust. Expect years of low inflation and growth (relative to China) to follow, but it will muddle through.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Barrister on February 08, 2024, 12:03:29 PM
The problem with trying to forecast about China is the government is so opaque about it's statistics and finances.

It could melt down.  It could just go through a "lost decade", or any of a number of other scenarios.  We just don't know.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 08, 2024, 12:22:45 PM
Quote from: PJL on February 08, 2024, 11:45:13 AMChina isn't going to melt down. It's just going to be Japan 2.0 with it's massive debt overhang due to it's inflated property boom going bust. Expect years of low inflation and growth (relative to China) to follow, but it will muddle through.

Trouble is Japan became very rich before everything went pear shaped.
The last 3 decades weren't marvelous... But they were OK. People weren't exactly starving en masse, opportunities to really thrive were low but they got to live fully modern lives in a meritocraticish system.

China... Had not reached such a high position before the property bust. Its people aren't treading water at the top of the world but from an on paper pretty Meh position which in reality is far worse for most.

Another issue to consider with China - the past 2 decades building boom with riddled with corruption. The more the years pass the more likely major buildings will fail critically. Providing yet more human suffering and controversy.

The only sensible path for China does seem to be to double down on the oppression since actually making people content is moving off the table for them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 08, 2024, 12:31:05 PM
The other side of Japan becoming a leading developing country when there was a property bust and China not is that there was limited return on money in Japan flowing into infrastructure, manufcaturing, other capital intensive uses because Japan was already at the cutting edge.

I think with China there's still a lot of capacity to "catch up" so I'm less sure that's doomed to failure (with all the risks and caveats).

I also think there's still a fair bit of output legitimacy for the Chinese system, even if it definitely took a battering with zero covid and the end of covid measures.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on February 08, 2024, 01:12:47 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 08, 2024, 12:31:05 PMThe other side of Japan becoming a leading developing country when there was a property bust and China not is that there was limited return on money in Japan flowing into infrastructure, manufcaturing, other capital intensive uses because Japan was already at the cutting edge.

I think with China there's still a lot of capacity to "catch up" so I'm less sure that's doomed to failure (with all the risks and caveats).
China certainly has limited return on capital investment. They have not just overbuilt real estate, but also e.g. railways. The state railway company has close to a trillion dollar debt. Their manufacturing industries are overproducing demand which means additional investment will be tough to amortize.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 08, 2024, 02:04:16 PM
I agree and it is diminishing - but for all the comparisons with Japan in 1989, I think that's a really big difference. The gap between China and a highly developed country is still quite large and there is still space to "catch up" - acknowledging that there are diminishing returns.

Also I think the debt is real, I think the lack of domestic demand is a problem (although that depends on the ROTW's response too) - but I'm not sure how much what would be serious issues in a normal market economy matter in a Communist party state when the party sits on the board of every company, as well as the regulators and the local government and the lenders and the state etc.

Totally agree on BBoy's point about how to work out what's going. One metric is perhaps that China imports basically all of its energy, iron and other raw materials - and from what I understand those have been really volatile since 2020 (like the rest of the world), but China's demand is basically still steady or growing.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 08, 2024, 02:43:32 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 08, 2024, 12:31:05 PMThe other side of Japan becoming a leading developing country when there was a property bust and China not is that there was limited return on money in Japan flowing into infrastructure, manufcaturing, other capital intensive uses because Japan was already at the cutting edge.

I think with China there's still a lot of capacity to "catch up" so I'm less sure that's doomed to failure (with all the risks and caveats).

I also think there's still a fair bit of output legitimacy for the Chinese system, even if it definitely took a battering with zero covid and the end of covid measures.

I'm not so sure.
China has already built every viable high speed line and more besides - some of their constructions have been a massive waste.

A lot of Japan's 90s infrastructure spending was wasteful and corrupt... But China is on a whole different level for that sort of thing than Japan.

Another potential pain point for China - the world pivoting away from them due to recent behaviour.
Where Japan in the 90s was still seen as high tech wonderland with its products in demand. China is stuck in Japan's 1960s position of producer of cheap tat, it not worse, even in the developing world distrust of Chinese products is simmering

Though people have been predicting the end of China since before the boom it does seem to be coming off the tracks a bit lately.
It won't be crashing into nothingness but it will be shifting into something quite different. Less threatening economically but far more liable to do something stupid
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on February 08, 2024, 08:14:42 PM
I had Chinese food for lunch!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 08, 2024, 09:19:51 PM
Holy fuck, Xi's ridiculous...

As you may know, Lunar New Year - aka Chinese New Year - is one of the biggest holidays in China. It's basically like Christmas is in the West in terms of family and emotional impact.

The holiday starts on on New Years eve and goes on for another 10 days.

So it turns out that the word for New Years Eve is a homonym for "eliminate Xi"... and as of this year, New Years Eve is no longer a public holiday in China.

What a fucking cretin.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on February 08, 2024, 09:25:21 PM
Sounds like a premise for an article from the Chinese version of the onion.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 08, 2024, 10:46:25 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 08, 2024, 02:04:16 PMI agree and it is diminishing - but for all the comparisons with Japan in 1989, I think that's a really big difference. The gap between China and a highly developed country is still quite large and there is still space to "catch up" - acknowledging that there are diminishing returns.

But the question is whether they will converge or fall into a middle income trap.  They still have a powerful manufacturing and export engine but demographics have turned against them.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 09, 2024, 06:27:19 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 08, 2024, 09:19:51 PMHoly fuck, Xi's ridiculous...

As you may know, Lunar New Year - aka Chinese New Year - is one of the biggest holidays in China. It's basically like Christmas is in the West in terms of family and emotional impact.

The holiday starts on on New Years eve and goes on for another 10 days.

So it turns out that the word for New Years Eve is a homonym for "eliminate Xi"... and as of this year, New Years Eve is no longer a public holiday in China.

What a fucking cretin.


It's already quite a disaster period with the big rush to get home...
Sounds like things will be interesting.

Surely effectively cancelling Christmas cannot go well for him?
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on February 09, 2024, 06:39:29 AM
Wonder when he'll go after chinas real enemies. Sparrows.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 09, 2024, 07:51:24 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 08, 2024, 10:46:25 PMBut the question is whether they will converge or fall into a middle income trap.  They still have a powerful manufacturing and export engine but demographics have turned against them.
Yeah - although I think that's another reason why I think the comparisons with 80s Japan are not that illuminating.

Although one other thought I have - and I have no idea if there's any basis to it - is that we are saying there's low domestic demand and overproduction. And (as I say, no idea if there's anything to this) I couldn't help but think of Saudi during the shale boom when they kept production at levels that were not economically viable given the prices, but the goal was to maintain market share (and having complained about comparisons with Japan here I am throwing in Saudi Arabia :lol:). Especially given the industries where China's investing I can't help but wonder if part of it is basically to build market share? (As the Suadis hoped - and failed - to kill of shale, so China hoping to kill of industries in the West in those core sectors that are their focus).

The other thing I often think about is all of the talk in the West, especially Europe, about de-coupling now pivoting to de-risking. I see China massively increasing its renewable capacity with over 50% domestic production supporting that expansion; while in Europe the European production is around 3% and the target is unattainable without Chinese industry. And I think of covid and I wonder is overproduction also building spare capacity - and is China envisaging a scenario when they might want to de-risk or de-couple from the West?

It's the question that I feel like Western countries (especially washed out ones like Europe) are really struggling to grapple with: what if the rest of the world also has agency now? :ph34r:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 10, 2024, 02:52:41 AM
Oh absolutely. China is following the amazon approach of kill the competition and then in the future do what it likes with the market. Probably use it for political ends too - admit that there's never been any such thing as Uighurs or no batteries for you.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 10, 2024, 04:01:57 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 09, 2024, 07:51:24 PMEspecially given the industries where China's investing I can't help but wonder if part of it is basically to build market share? (As the Suadis hoped - and failed - to kill of shale, so China hoping to kill of industries in the West in those core sectors that are their focus).

It's been a few years ago, maybe even close to a decade, but I've seen this before. Basically what China does is invite western companies, steals their technology, then outproduces, outsubsidises and outprices these western companies until they go under. All this in an attempt to basically destroy western industrial capacity.

I've got no reason to assume this isn't their strategy since the CCP is basically evil incarnate.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: PJL on February 10, 2024, 02:24:46 PM
Today I learned that China has a 'strategic pork reserve'. Seriously WTF, you couldn't make this up.

Full report here (mainly explaining China's deflation crisis): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1qLbDu04d0
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 10, 2024, 02:41:47 PM
A Chinese strategic pork reserve makes sense to me given China's relatively low level of food self-sufficiency and how central pork is to the Chinese diet.

Unsustainable increases in the price of pork or supply issues is a potential threat to the stability of the regime. It's something basically everyone would feel and care about.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 10, 2024, 02:44:27 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 10, 2024, 02:41:47 PMA Chinese strategic pork reserve makes sense to me given China's relatively low level of food self-sufficiency and how central pork is to the Chinese diet.

Unsustainable increases in the price of pork or supply issues is a potential threat to the stability of the regime. It's something basically everyone would feel and care about.
Yeah I think it makes a lot of sense and is weirdly something I'd heard about before.

Edit: Although I still find the idea quite fun.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 10, 2024, 02:45:23 PM
Having a strategic food reserve makes sense.
Though pork? That doesn't exactly keep well.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 10, 2024, 02:49:30 PM
It varies by country and says something about each regions food - for example I know India has centrally managed reserves of onions because it's really important in Indian food and shortages or shocks to the prices in the past have kicked off massive protests.

I think it's less a massive stock in case something goes wrong and more something that can be tapped to keep prices stable.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 10, 2024, 03:03:33 PM
Quote from: Josquius on February 10, 2024, 02:45:23 PMHaving a strategic food reserve makes sense.
Though pork? That doesn't exactly keep well.

My guess is that they rotate the stock.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Syt on February 10, 2024, 03:04:15 PM
Let's not forget that Canada has a strategic Maple Syrup Reserve. :P

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Canadian_Maple_Syrup_Heist
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on February 11, 2024, 04:20:00 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 10, 2024, 02:45:23 PMHaving a strategic food reserve makes sense.
Though pork? That doesn't exactly keep well.
Canned pork can keep for a while.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on February 11, 2024, 04:20:59 AM
The Asian fascination with spam truly is remarkable. I'll keep my maple syrup  :D
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Zanza on February 11, 2024, 04:25:26 AM
The European Union used to have a "butter mountain" and still has a "wine lake", both due to overproduction.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on February 11, 2024, 04:28:12 AM
US Had cheese hordes (MB beloved government cheese) from diary subsidies over production. Not sure if they still do.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 11, 2024, 11:04:37 AM
In other China news this whole messi in Hong Kong thing is amazing

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/68261461.amp

Inter Miami had a friendly in HK during which Messi didn't play due to injury....
Prompting massive anger and people demanding their money back.
A little later Miami had a friendly in Japan during which Messi had recovered a little and did appear.... Which made it a severe national insult in China.  :lmfao:
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on February 11, 2024, 11:09:40 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 11, 2024, 11:04:37 AMIn other China news this whole messi in Hong Kong thing is amazing

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/68261461.amp

Inter Miami had a friendly in HK during which Messi didn't play due to injury....
Prompting massive anger and people demanding their money back.
A little later Miami had a friendly in Japan during which Messi had recovered a little and did appear.... Which made it a severe national insult in China.  :lmfao:

Small penis syndrome: everything's an insult...
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on February 11, 2024, 11:16:19 AM
Didn't something similar happen in Korea with Ronaldo a few years back?

Tickets were sold on the advertising, so I get angry ticket holders. National outrage is dumb though.

Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Tonitrus on February 11, 2024, 01:31:48 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 11, 2024, 04:20:00 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 10, 2024, 02:45:23 PMHaving a strategic food reserve makes sense.
Though pork? That doesn't exactly keep well.
Canned pork can keep for a while.

SPAM!
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 11, 2024, 01:43:33 PM
Quote from: HVC on February 11, 2024, 04:20:59 AMThe Asian fascination with spam truly is remarkable. I'll keep my maple syrup  :D

I think most of those nations went through one or more periods of serious privation or straight up famine where spam ended up being "attainable and nutritionally valuable culinary luxury in the context of the time."
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: DGuller on February 11, 2024, 02:05:29 PM
Soviet war veterans loved Spam from lend lease.  It may not seem like a desirable food during peacetime in the West, but during the war it must've been a top delicacy. 

Even in the time of my childhood canned pork was was something you looked forward to eating.  In fact, I still have a soft spot for it and buy it occasionally during my trips to the Russian food store, even though I know it's super unhealthy and not really anything special by the Western food standards.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 11, 2024, 02:22:23 PM
I never really ate spam but pek is definitely a guilty pleasure of mine.

Spam does seem to have a big military link in Asia - in Japan okinawan restaurants always have lots of spam dishes.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 11, 2024, 03:44:43 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 11, 2024, 01:43:33 PM
Quote from: HVC on February 11, 2024, 04:20:59 AMThe Asian fascination with spam truly is remarkable. I'll keep my maple syrup  :D

I think most of those nations went through one or more periods of serious privation or straight up famine where spam ended up being "attainable and nutritionally valuable culinary luxury in the context of the time."
Also isn't it most popular in Korea, Okinawa and the Philippines, so has a lot to do with American troops, the Cold War and America's forward Pacific positions.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 11, 2024, 04:17:29 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 11, 2024, 03:44:43 PMAlso isn't it most popular in Korea, Okinawa and the Philippines, so has a lot to do with American troops, the Cold War and America's forward Pacific positions.

It certainly has a pretty solid place in China also. I can't speak to how it compares, though.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Razgovory on February 11, 2024, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 11, 2024, 02:05:29 PMSoviet war veterans loved Spam from lend lease.  It may not seem like a desirable food during peacetime in the West, but during the war it must've been a top delicacy. 

Even in the time of my childhood canned pork was was something you looked forward to eating.  In fact, I still have a soft spot for it and buy it occasionally during my trips to the Russian food store, even though I know it's super unhealthy and not really anything special by the Western food standards.
Everyone seems to have liked Spam, except US soldiers, who despised it.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on February 11, 2024, 06:33:14 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 11, 2024, 03:44:43 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 11, 2024, 01:43:33 PM
Quote from: HVC on February 11, 2024, 04:20:59 AMThe Asian fascination with spam truly is remarkable. I'll keep my maple syrup  :D

I think most of those nations went through one or more periods of serious privation or straight up famine where spam ended up being "attainable and nutritionally valuable culinary luxury in the context of the time."
Also isn't it most popular in Korea, Okinawa and the Philippines, so has a lot to do with American troops, the Cold War and America's forward Pacific positions.

That's why I stipulated Asian :P but yeah, I assume it's an American army thing mainly.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 11, 2024, 07:46:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 11, 2024, 04:17:29 PMIt certainly has a pretty solid place in China also. I can't speak to how it compares, though.
Yes - although even there I wonder if there's an American legacy? Whether from missionaries, or the American troops sent to protect them at various point, or the American support and huge number of supplies for Chiang, which must have included vittles like spam.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 11, 2024, 10:08:52 PM
One of my favorite stews from my time in Korea was budaejjigae, or "army stew", which consists of spzm, hot dogs, ramen, and various other things.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Jacob on February 12, 2024, 12:43:59 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 11, 2024, 07:46:56 PMYes - although even there I wonder if there's an American legacy? Whether from missionaries, or the American troops sent to protect them at various point, or the American support and huge number of supplies for Chiang, which must have included vittles like spam.

I was about to state my theory - that I think it's because it's affordable and easy to export / import / store for long periods of time which made it more accessible in various ways.

Then I went to the wikipedia page for Spam and it said this:

China
In mainland China, Hormel decided to adopt a different strategy to market Spam (Chinese: 世棒; pinyin: Shìbàng), promoting it as a foreign, premium food product and changing the Spam formula to be meatier to accommodate local Chinese tastes. Spam-like canned pork products are also produced by other food companies in China as "Luncheon Meat" (Chinese: 午餐肉; pinyin: Wǔcānròu; Jyutping: Ng5 caan1 juk6; Zhuyin Fuhao: ㄨˇ ㄘㄢ ㄖㄡˋ).

Hong Kong
After World War II, meat was scarce and expensive in Hong Kong, so Spam was an accessible, affordable alternative. The luncheon meat has been incorporated into dishes such as macaroni with fried egg and spam in chicken soup, as well as ramen.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Sheilbh on February 12, 2024, 07:20:33 AM
:lol: I love that and I'm totally wrong for Mainland China at least.

Two entirely different explanations for two immediately adjacent regions.

Hong Kong sounds like the British experience too when Spam was big post-WW2 - just (to the surprise of no-one) Hong Kongers were significantly more culinarily experimental and turned it into something great, while we just tried various ways of frying it.

Don't know if Ive mentioned it before but my history teacher in Scotland (when we were doing 19th century social life - Highland clearances, tenements, industrial slums, John Snow etc) told the story of his time in university during Britain's last typhoid outbreak. According to his story, it was caused by the Fray Bentos corned beef factory in Uruguay (so not quite spam but tinned meats). Basically he said part of the manufacturing process has the tins packed with meat and really hot and need to be cooled very quickly, so they get dumped into cold, flowing water. At that point the Fray Bentos factory, which was on the Uruguay River, basically just pumped in river water for that process. There was a batch of tins which were defective and had tiny punctures so the waste and pollution from the river got into the cans, which then ended up in Aberdeen where they wreaked havoc through the student community.
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: HVC on February 12, 2024, 07:40:00 AM
Mmm yum, poop water flavoured
Title: Re: The China Thread
Post by: Josquius on February 12, 2024, 07:48:55 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 12, 2024, 12:43:59 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 11, 2024, 07:46:56 PMYes - although even there I wonder if there's an American legacy? Whether from missionaries, or the American troops sent to protect them at various point, or the American support and huge number of supplies for Chiang, which must have included vittles like spam.

I was about to state my theory - that I think it's because it's affordable and easy to export / import / store for long periods of time which made it more accessible in various ways.

Then I went to the wikipedia page for Spam and it said this:

China
In mainland China, Hormel decided to adopt a different strategy to market Spam (Chinese: 世棒; pinyin: Shìbàng), promoting it as a foreign, premium food product and changing the Spam formula to be meatier to accommodate local Chinese tastes. Spam-like canned pork products are also produced by other food companies in China as "Luncheon Meat" (Chinese: 午餐肉; pinyin: Wǔcānròu; Jyutping: Ng5 caan1 juk6; Zhuyin Fuhao: ㄨˇ ㄘㄢ ㄖㄡˋ).

Hong Kong
After World War II, meat was scarce and expensive in Hong Kong, so Spam was an accessible, affordable alternative. The luncheon meat has been incorporated into dishes such as macaroni with fried egg and spam in chicken soup, as well as ramen.

Changed the spam formula to be 'meatier'....
This is China...
They added bones didn't they?