Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[grumbler]

There are suggestions that Scholz holding out made the US commit Abrams. If so, he just did what he stated upfront and once he achieved his goal did what was promised.

Yes.  It was worth all the Ukrainian deaths resulting from the long delay in delivering tanks so Scholz could try to coerce Biden.

[Zanza]

There are suggestions that Scholz holding out made the US commit Abrams. If so, he just did what he stated upfront and once he achieved his goal did what was promised.

Yes.  It was worth all the Ukrainian deaths resulting from the long delay in delivering tanks so Scholz could try to coerce Biden.

That's actually something I wonder about for all Western weapons deliveries. E.g the US and Germany waited close to a ten months after Russia started bombing Ukraine to announce delivering Patriot SAMs to Ukraine. Why? It cannot be availability of the hardware as these ate existing systems. But somehow all countries only seem to deliver after long deliberation. What materially changed to now make it sensible to deliver Western IFV like Bradley and Marder that was not around before. Why did Germany not deliver Leopard 2 tanks last March? It is not like they built many new ones since...

Edit: Maybe it is actual fear of escalation, but that does not explain hesitancy in the last few months anymore.

[crazy canuck]

One of the things that became clear very early on was the need for someone in the West to take control over the supply to Ukraine.  I am not sure to what extent that occurred behind scenes, but the public posturing makes one wonder how organized the effort really is.

[Sheilbh]

In which case, credit to him.

I think that probably depends on the objective/rationale for Scholz's linking Leopard and Abrams. Especially because I think it has always been likely that the Leopards would go - the pattern is Germany always does the right thing just after weeks of explaining why it can't and annoying all its allies.

If it was to maximise the amount of tanks Ukraine gets then he has been playing some magnificent 4D chess. But I'm not sure that's the case.

For the rest I think it needs to be balanced against the hit perceptions of German reliability as an ally has taken - as I say there is a pattern here. This isn't the first time this has happened.

That's actually something I wonder about for all Western weapons deliveries. E.g the US and Germany waited close to a ten months after Russia started bombing Ukraine to announce delivering Patriot SAMs to Ukraine. Why? It cannot be availability of the hardware as these ate existing systems. But somehow all countries only seem to deliver after long deliberation. What materially changed to now make it sensible to deliver Western IFV like Bradley and Marder that was not around before. Why did Germany not deliver Leopard 2 tanks last March? It is not like they built many new ones since.. 

I think to begin with many countries expected Ukraine to lose and lose pretty quickly.

Also I think Ukrainian needs/priorities shift over time. So I imagine at the start the priority was very much anti-tank, anti-air etc in order to repel Russian assaults. As it's shifted they wanted more equipment that enables their mobility, artillery and now longer distance artillery. As they're preparing for spring offensives (and knowing the Russians are too) they want tanks (and probably anti-tank stuff again) ready to go. I think anti-air has been a pretty constant requirement. So I imagine some of the phases reflects what Ukraine is pushing hardest for at any given point.

Probably a degree of coordination between allies - but even then they are getting multiple systems which must be logistically incredibly challenging (I wonder if "adopting" sectors might help?).

Frankly I think there has also been a bit of patronising attitudes to Ukraine which has been consistently disabused. First they were just going to collapse, then they were going to fight bravely but still be ground down - and on the weapons side I think there's been almost a sense of Ukrainians not being able to deal with/learn how to operate Western equipment. Every time one of those attitudes set in and Ukrainians are given the chance they dispel it pretty rapidly.

And I wonder if there's been an element of wanting Western supply chains warmed up a bit before things are sent - because, I think, implicit with any weapon systems going is an obligation to keep them supplied with ammo so they can operate usefully and not be stop-start. Not so much with the US, but across Europe I think supplies of weapons and ammo had been run pretty low before the war. I think on this Macron might have gone furthest - he announced in the Summer that the French defence industry should consider itself on a war footing (and keeps repeating that). It's not in the way it would if France were in a hot war but I think they have significantly increased orders and production to keep themselves and Ukraine supplied. Although France is a bit of a mystery because we know they're doing a lot of very helpful stuff but it's just not being made public for some reason.

I think there's also been a few moments of escalation concerns. So the Polish Migs for example had full US support one day - literally two days later they stopped it happening. I think it's since come out that China sent urgent back-channel messages to DC that they were very concerned about that and the US blocked them in consultation with the Chinese. I think also when the UK and US provided certain artillery systems it was made very clear they could not be used on targets in (actual) Russian territory.

One of the things that became clear very early on was the need for someone in the West to take control over the supply to Ukraine.  I am not sure to what extent that occurred behind scenes, but the public posturing makes one wonder how organized the effort really is.

I think it's reasonably coordinated and organised. Even on a purely practical level, it's challenging to get this stuff into Ukraine but also coordinating the various countries training Ukrainians on new weapons systems. I think it's a pretty impressive feat so far:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/24/nato-ukraine-military-aid-germany/

[Legbiter]

Next Ramstein will be about F-16's most likely. Russia will get the full Fulda Gap experience come May.

[Zanza]

Switzerland also changed their policy and now lets other countries export Swiss made weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, e.g. ammunition for the Gepard SPAAG.

[Josquius]

Curious conflicting rumours flying about that both the Russian line in Luhansk is on the verge of collapse with regular soldiers and civilians being withdrawn and that Ukraine is considering a full retreat from Luhansk.

[The Larch]

Another issue I think has been that Ukraine has proved over time to be a reliable partner. At first even the US was hesitant to deliver some particular weapons systems for fear they'd be used to hit targets within Russia itself, which always seemed to be a huge no-no, so deliveries started with smaller stuff like MANPADs, Javelins and the like, rather than, say, missile systems or long range artillery. Also, as said, when they were in the defensive tanks were not a priority for them. Now that they're in the offensive, and aiming to recover territory over the spring/summer, then tanks become a priority.

Once Ukraine proved that they're able to limit their use of Western weapons to targets within Ukraine, it opens the possibility to supply them more and more stuff with the knowledge that it'll only be used for what Ukraine is told that they can use them.

[Jacob]

Curious conflicting rumours flying about that both the Russian line in Luhansk is on the verge of collapse with regular soldiers and civilians being withdrawn and that Ukraine is considering a full retreat from Luhansk.

If one of those rumours is true, then the other rumour is probably propaganda to help stiffen the resolve of the weaker side.

[Zanza]

US now committed 31 Abrams MBTs to Ukraine.

[Legbiter]

Solovyov reveals Germany is ruled by Nazi Pharisees. I'm shocked by this turn of events. We have to stop our support for Ukraine guys, I'm just thoroughly demoralized now.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1618010872995270657

[The Brain]

His Smack Fu is weak.

[Zanza]

Is that someone relevant?

[Josquius]

I wonder why the US is sending 31. Seems a strange random number. 14 is a standard tank company size I understand. Where do the extra 3 fit in?- this is combined with some smaller nations contributions to make 3 companies?

[Valmy]

I wonder why the US is sending 31. Seems a strange random number. 14 is a standard tank company size I understand. Where do the extra 3 fit in?- this is combined with some smaller nations contributions to make 3 companies?

Maybe three are to be used for training purposes and/or reserve?