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#31
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - March 28, 2024, 05:57:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 28, 2024, 05:28:20 PMWhat political space is Farrage trying to occupy now that Brexit is done?
Good question. Every few months teasing that he would be willing, if drafted, to join the Tories and become their leader - or that he'll get involved with Reform. I suspect that it is to keep his own relevance up as much as anything else.

As you say there's no big campaign point for him to rally around. And he spent 20 years in small fourth/fifth party politics to achieve his goal. I'm not convinced he's particularly interested in doing it again - as opposed to being asked if he'd like to do it again and getting headlines/right-wing Tories excited.

On the other hand - arguably there's no better chance to replace the Tories. Once Labour are in office, there will be a need for an opposition and people will start drifting to the Tories again. While at the minute they're haemorrhaging Red Wall voters to Labour, disappointed by the wild failure of leveling up, they're vulnerable to the Lib Dems in their heartlands, exhausted by culture war politics - and the culture warriors are deeply dissatisfied with what they perceive as a squishy, pointless, flailing government (and all three points of view are kind of true). If you wanted to replace the right or re-define it or try to become PM - this might be the best shot. Edit:

And I think with Johnson, Truss, Sunak (and, to an extent, Starmer) we're in an incredibly "vibes politics"/affect politics time. Johnson won an election on the most centrist, big state, interventionist Tory manifesto this side of Rab Butler - but parts of the right are convinced he's one of theirs and they love him, but he couldn't deliver. With Sunak I think we have our most genuinely right-wing PM since Thatcher but his affect is "liberal elite" - as Janan Ganesh put it, he's British Asian, sounds like Tony Blair, is richer than God and comfortable abroad. He is not "one of us" for many on the Tory right.

Edit: And Farage is a very vibes politician.

Weirdly I think Sunak is, unlike Johnson or Truss, fundamentally competent and could possibly be capable of doing things. But while they actually have (if sometimes wrong and sometimes mad) ideas, Sunak gives the impression of someone overawed by the ambition of the Cones Hotline. As far as I can tell what he is really passionate about is improving the teaching maths and geeking out about AI - which is fine for a junior minister, but underwhelming in a PM. And makes it difficult to win over naysayers - it all just feels very "we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas".
#32
Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...
Last post by Valmy - March 28, 2024, 05:51:46 PM
Quote from: Josquius on March 28, 2024, 05:47:13 PMIs it bullshit? Surely it's pretty standard that the economy of today is made by decisions from a few years ago?

It can be but usually it is stuff that happened long before a few years ago or from events that had nothing to do with decisions made by the government. Sometimes supply and demand and economics just sort of happen.

And it gets really stupid. People start blaming the economy on the President the second he gets into office as if somehow just him getting elected shifted the whole economy around.
#33
Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...
Last post by Josquius - March 28, 2024, 05:47:13 PM
Is it bullshit? Surely it's pretty standard that the economy of today is made by decisions from a few years ago?
#34
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - March 28, 2024, 05:41:42 PM
Quote from: Gups on March 28, 2024, 05:29:29 PMNo chance of an election before October.  Sunak won't resign. Garage, I'm not sure. I think he wants to move into the Tory party but who knowss
I know it's mad - but I genuinely wonder how much is just ego. If he gets to October Sunak can at least say he served as PM for two years.

QuoteAlternatively I reckon he'll resign as PM/Tory leader after the local elections, but only if he feels that there is a consensus for a caretaker PM to lead the final 6 months or so to at least steady the ship and least recover something from the inevitable defeat. My money is Gove being that caretaker PM, Nobody likes him, but he fits the bill as being somewhat competent and a safe pair of hands to lead the party. Furthermore he didn't contest the last leadership election and hence has no permanent ambition to be PM, and also he has a safe seat.
*CANADA 93 INTENSIFIES*
#35
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by PJL - March 28, 2024, 05:37:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 28, 2024, 05:28:20 PMWhat political space is Farrage trying to occupy now that Brexit is done?

That's the point, Brexit isn't done, or least the in the way Farrage / Reform are arguing it should be done. They would fix it better than the Tories. And I kind of get their point, Brexit was about taking back control and prioritising the home market for many, not surrendering all our advantages in trade deals to countries like Australia, just for the sake of 'Global Britain'. Of course the best way to solve it would be to create a fairer system to alleviate the feeling of wanting to 'keep up with the Joneses'.
#36
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by Admiral Yi - March 28, 2024, 05:32:56 PM
Watched Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.  If you take away Margaret Qualley's underage ass sticking out of a car window there's not much left.  Better than your average Tarentino post Pulp Fiction bust.
#37
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Gups - March 28, 2024, 05:29:29 PM
No chance of an election before October.  Sunak won't resign. Garage, I'm not sure. I think he wants to move into the Tory party but who knowss
#38
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Admiral Yi - March 28, 2024, 05:28:20 PM
What political space is Farrage trying to occupy now that Brexit is done?
#39
Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023
Last post by Admiral Yi - March 28, 2024, 05:23:47 PM
Quote from: Jacob on March 27, 2024, 04:49:24 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 27, 2024, 02:46:13 PMDisagree.  It's my belief that the one interest group he considers absolutely indispensable is evangelicals.  And Israel is their pet.

There are few things Donald Trump loves more than taking advantage of people and pulling something over on people who think he's in their corner.

One theme for the current American radical right is the way they've turned on and jettisoned previous shibboleths and purity tests for their movement. Sure they evangelical right loves Israel, but if Trump could find a way to turn his base against Israel for his own gain (or ego) he'd have no compunction not to. And if the Trump base is given a choice between Trump or Israel, I think they'll break for Trump in large numbers.

EDIT: Not right now, of course. But soon enough.

I think you're overstating the case. This maybe describes free trade.  And maybe pussy grabbing.
#40
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by PJL - March 28, 2024, 05:23:03 PM
I think a June election is most likely, my guess is that Sunak will call an election before the end of April, or at the latest the week after the local elections.

Alternatively I reckon he'll resign as PM/Tory leader after the local elections, but only if he feels that there is a consensus for a caretaker PM to lead the final 6 months or so to at least steady the ship and least recover something from the inevitable defeat. My money is Gove being that caretaker PM, Nobody likes him, but he fits the bill as being somewhat competent and a safe pair of hands to lead the party. Furthermore he didn't contest the last leadership election and hence has no permanent ambition to be PM, and also he has a safe seat.

As for Farrage leading Reform, I think he needs to decide on this very quickly, latest next week to fully capitalise any possible gains in the locals and a springboard for the general election.