Languish.org

General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: MadImmortalMan on December 21, 2009, 04:32:41 AM

Title: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 21, 2009, 04:32:41 AM
Yeah, it's a hobby. Has been for a long time.


I dumped my gold stocks - GLD and AEM a couple weeks ago, and I'm damn glad I did. I'm still holding some oil and NatGas in the form of CVX and LINE, plus a chunk of Banco Santander which I bought at seven bucks and a couple hundred shares of their Brazilian IPO (BSBR). I like Brazil as a growth market, particularly in banking and oil. I also have a decent share in Caterpillar. Here's a transplant post:

Quote
You know, every now and then I get this feeling that things are going to go down for a bit any maybe I go go all in cash and watch what happens. Problem is, I usually have some specific plan for when and under what condition I want to sell it before I buy something. Each of my stock positions has some kind of thought behind it like that, and I know that suddenly deciding that things are going down the crapper and dumping it all is a panic move. Like Mojo said--don't trade on emotion.

But here's the thing. An example, if you will. I bought CAT at $31.79 back in October as the market was sinking. As you may know, the current price of CAT is at just under $60. And I've been collecting their dividends all year. So, you would think that's good, right?

Well, I did have the urge to dump it later in October as it traded down through 28-ish. Not because I didn't like the company, but because I didn't like the overall economy. Sure enough, it went all the way down to $21 or so but I still held on thinking I was smarter than the market. So I still own it today at $59 or whatever it happens to be as of this posting.

But was I really smarter than the market? If I had heeded my gut when I didn't like the market, dumped it, and then picked up the same stock, say in April or March for $23 or $25--well I would have lost out on two dividend payments, but I would currently be up six or seven points more than I am.

All considered, I think I did all right by holding. But what if the swing was a lot bigger, say like Citi or something. Down to $1 before coming back up, but not to where it was. In that case, I would have been right to dump it and come back in later.

I think the difference is the amount of exposure the company in question has to the downfall and what type of downfall it is. Clearly Citi is a lot more exposed to a banking collapse than CAT is, but CAT is not immune.

The trouble is, a banking collapse is kinda easy to figure out who will suffer. Banks. Homebuilders, etc. What may be coming up, not so easy.


Things don't look super-optimistic right now. A lot of uncertainty. I'm not going anywhere near pharma or healthcare or anything related right now, like GE (Centricity--look it up). Too much shit up in the air. Metals and commodities had a boom, but I don't know if the inflation rate will keep that going. Basically, I don't know what to do next. If the inflation rate keeps going up, a lot of things will be bullish. We'll see.

:bowler:  <-- Capitalist hat
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 21, 2009, 04:48:10 AM
I simply don't believe this is the end of the economic troubles.  I've experienced it myself.  I've seen what's going on in Japan.  The bursting of giant housing bubbles has nasty and long-term consequences, and the effects may take years to surface.  Ours burst in 1997, and the lowest point of the stock market was not reached until 2003.  Between 97 and 03 there were lots of ups and downs. 

But then, I could be wrong  :P  I have half in stocks and half in cash right now.  In case I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on December 21, 2009, 05:29:29 AM
By January, I will have enough money which (barely)  worth investing. I was thinking some fund, but I am also thinking: why should the bank get most of the profits from stocks? On the other hand, I am not very good in this. Me: :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 21, 2009, 05:34:51 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 21, 2009, 05:29:29 AM
By January, I will have enough money which (barely)  worth investing. I was thinking some fund, but I am also thinking: why should the bank get most of the profits from stocks? On the other hand, I am not very good in this. Me: :unsure:

The bank is no better than you in picking stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 21, 2009, 06:19:07 AM
Cool, I like these threads.  :bowler:

Here's a list of my current holdings:

ACN (Accenture)
AWF (AllianceBernstein Global High Income)
BLKB (Blackbaud)
CHK (Chesapeake Energy)
F (Ford)
GRMN (Garmin)
HPY (Heartland Payment Systems)
SNE (Sony)
T (AT&T)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 21, 2009, 08:22:19 AM
I share F and AT&T with Cal.  :)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 21, 2009, 08:28:00 AM
For a while I was down (way down) on Ford, but I've been up on it for the past few months, given how it's the only American car manufacturer that seems to understand how to properly function.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 21, 2009, 08:35:02 AM
I've got my first urge to buy individual stocks a couple of days ago, when I saw a bunch of Keurig coffee makers being sold for Christmas.  Considering how good these coffee makers are, and how they require K-cups that cost a bundle, I figured that it was a very good income stream for the company that makes them.  Then I looked up the stock history of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, and I realized that I was beaten to the punch by a year.  Damn.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 21, 2009, 08:38:56 AM
Never buy a stock just because the company puts out a product you (and/or others) like.  It's as much, or more, about how well the company manages its finances than what they happen to be producing.

That said, I rarely buy a stock if I can't understand what the company is doing in order to make money, and especially if their product is something intangible.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Rasputin on December 21, 2009, 08:41:00 AM
Adm

Everything else will make your eyes bleed as we close in on the next collapse.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 21, 2009, 08:49:31 AM
Quote from: Caliga on December 21, 2009, 08:38:56 AM
Never buy a stock just because the company puts out a product you (and/or others) like.  It's as much, or more, about how well the company manages its finances than what they happen to be producing.

That said, I rarely buy a stock if I can't understand what the company is doing in order to make money, and especially if their product is something intangible.
I didn't consider buying it because I personally like their product.  I considered buying it because I saw a lucrative monopoly.  If plenty of people buy those machines, then plenty of people will need to keep buying the supplies for them that cost a fortune.  If you're selling something that's not just a commodity, you're poised to make very good money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 21, 2009, 10:20:55 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 21, 2009, 05:29:29 AM
By January, I will have enough money which (barely)  worth investing. I was thinking some fund, but I am also thinking: why should the bank get most of the profits from stocks? On the other hand, I am not very good in this. Me: :unsure:
Index funds give you diversification without soaking up all your gains in management fees.

I currently own

JPM (JP Morgan)
SPY (S&P 500 index fund)
WMT (Wally World)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Slargos on December 21, 2009, 10:37:33 AM
I was tricked by my older brother and a german market analyst into buying stock in Obducat, a company that makes machines for the production of microchips. OSTENSIBLY.

They hardly sell anything, but have been in business for over 20 years.

I was young, stupid, and my investment is currently worth about 15% of the $1000ish I paid for it 5 years ago, nominally.

I'm keeping the stock out of a morbid curiosity more than any notion that they will ever be worth more than hot air.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 21, 2009, 10:41:07 AM
Hot stock tips always wind up like that.  I suspect that all of those tips get started by pump and dumpers, and then rely on word of mouth to disseminate.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zanza on December 21, 2009, 10:43:17 AM
Apparently my stocks are Deutsche Telekom (the guys behind T-Mobile) and DWS Top 50 World (a mutual fund from Deutsche Bank that invests into HP, Novartis, Nestle, Cisco, JP Morgan, IBM, BHP Billington, Pepsico etc. ). I haven't followed their development in the last years so I have no idea if they went up or down. Presumably, they went down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 21, 2009, 10:44:17 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 21, 2009, 10:41:07 AM
Hot stock tips always wind up like that.  I suspect that all of those tips get started by pump and dumpers, and then rely on word of mouth to disseminate.
:yes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on December 21, 2009, 11:16:05 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 21, 2009, 08:49:31 AM
Quote from: Caliga on December 21, 2009, 08:38:56 AM
Never buy a stock just because the company puts out a product you (and/or others) like.  It's as much, or more, about how well the company manages its finances than what they happen to be producing.

That said, I rarely buy a stock if I can't understand what the company is doing in order to make money, and especially if their product is something intangible.
I didn't consider buying it because I personally like their product.  I considered buying it because I saw a lucrative monopoly.  If plenty of people buy those machines, then plenty of people will need to keep buying the supplies for them that cost a fortune.  If you're selling something that's not just a commodity, you're poised to make very good money.

Exxon has done okay selling a commodity.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on December 21, 2009, 11:19:09 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 21, 2009, 10:20:55 AM
Quote from: Tamas on December 21, 2009, 05:29:29 AM
By January, I will have enough money which (barely)  worth investing. I was thinking some fund, but I am also thinking: why should the bank get most of the profits from stocks? On the other hand, I am not very good in this. Me: :unsure:
Index funds give you diversification without soaking up all your gains in management fees.

I currently own

JPM (JP Morgan)
SPY (S&P 500 index fund)
WMT (Wally World)

I only own index funds (and company stock). Sometimes I'll trade individual stocks, but only if I have a very good understanding of the business (basically if I worked there, or know someone in a senior position, and have gone through their filings).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 21, 2009, 11:19:47 AM
Exxon has done pretty well finding, extracting, transporting, and refining a commodity.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on December 21, 2009, 11:23:10 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 21, 2009, 11:19:47 AM
Exxon has done pretty well finding, extracting, transporting, and refining a commodity.

Unfortunately, to sell a commodity you have to be in its possession and deliver it to the point of sale.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 21, 2009, 11:33:51 AM
I've owned Exxon stock on like three separate occasions.  Each occasion ended with a substantial capital gain ;)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 23, 2009, 09:06:13 PM
What about bonds?  Do you guys have bonds in your portfolios?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 23, 2009, 09:15:15 PM
Not in my hobby stock account, but I've tried the odd options here and there. I have bonds in the 401ks and IRAs along with the mutual funds of course.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 23, 2009, 09:28:06 PM
Another problem is the strength of the US$, or lack thereof.  The HK$ is pegged to the US$.  So if the US$ drops, the HK$ follows.  I am tempted to buy Euro bonds, but I'm not sure if that's a good idea given what's going on in Greece and other places.  I am also worried about possible inflation in the coming years.  OTOH doing nothing is also a dangerous option.  Doing nothing means holding HK$/US$ in cash.  I get no income and I give up interest from bonds.  The whole thing is so frustrating :frusty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 23, 2009, 09:41:21 PM
Same as MiM... don't mess with bonds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 23, 2009, 09:45:49 PM
Quote from: Caliga on December 23, 2009, 09:41:21 PM
Same as MiM... don't mess with bonds.

But fixed income assets should be essential components of a balanced portfolio.  Bonds strike a balance with equities (whose value fluctuates greatly) and cash (whose income is too small and there is almost no appreciation in value).  Not having any bonds is itself a risky proposition.  When we are young we can afford to put everything in equities.  But as we approach retirement age, we need to become more conservative. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 23, 2009, 10:01:52 PM
I also own oil company stocks.  My fear is that these companies can become the next Kodaks.  So much effort is being put into alternative energy sources that I worry the day will come sooner than I think.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 23, 2009, 10:16:44 PM
What do you people think about safe withdrawal rates? 

For those who don't know, it is a simple rule of thumb way to calculate the amount of assets needed for retirement.  It represents the amount of money you can withdraw from the portfolio every year without exhausting the portfolio.  Say, you need $50k a year after retirement.  Assume that you adopt a 4% SWR, then the initial asset requirement is $50k divided by 0.04 = $1.25 million.  How much money you need after retirement is really a matter of personal preference.  So the SWR becomes crucial.  The typical SWR regarded as safe is 4%.  Anything below 4% is conservative and stands a higher chance of success.  An SWR of 5% or above is risky - the portfolio may be depleted before you die. 

There is a huge amount of literature written on this.  Some say it is idiotic, because the strategy could be too conservative and leave a large unspent balance.  Some say they've tested the strategy with real data from the past century or so, and it can withstand a recession the scale of the Great Depression.  Some say the best idea is to buy an annuity.  Some say annuities are traps. 

What say you?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on December 23, 2009, 11:13:17 PM
My goal is to make enough that I can retire on cash reserves and real estate.  Those bits I feel comfortable enough that I know what's going on.  Equities and buying and selling shit?  Nope.

If I am to have a continued revenue stream after I stop working it'll have to be residuals, royalties or other IP derived income.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 01:15:25 AM
I am going to rely on a combination of cash, bonds, bond funds, index funds, and individual stocks.  Most will be on a buy and hold basis.  For bonds, I'll diversify into different currency denominations.  For stocks, I'll favour defensive plays with relatively stable dividend payouts (e.g. utilities). 

In case they fail, I also have 5 secret doomsday weapons.

First is the wife's portfolio.  Much smaller than mine but it is there.

Second is the HK government's generous old age benefit scheme which amounts to a whopping US$120 per month after I reach 70.  I know they try to abolish the scheme so it may not be there when I am 70.

Third is our life long defined benefit monthly PENSION and a big payout that each of us will get when we hit 60  MUHAHAHAHAhahahaha

Fourth is the flat that we currently live in.  The current plan assumes that I'll die with full equity in the flat, untouched.  I can perhaps tap into that when starvation is imminent. 

Finally, as citizens of Great Britain/European Union and Canada, we can fly to either place to collect whatever social benefit they have if all else fails. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 24, 2009, 01:29:26 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 23, 2009, 09:45:49 PM

But fixed income assets should be essential components of a balanced portfolio.  Bonds strike a balance with equities (whose value fluctuates greatly) and cash (whose income is too small and there is almost no appreciation in value).  Not having any bonds is itself a risky proposition.  When we are young we can afford to put everything in equities.  But as we approach retirement age, we need to become more conservative.

Of course they are. I don't trade with my retirement account though. That's where the bonds and funds are. I trade with an account that's just for trading. Speculation. The risky shit. It's nowhere near the size of our real retirement accounts. I don't trade with those. The sad thing is, I've done WAY better with my speculative account than I have with the 401k or either IRA over the last year.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 01:38:11 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on December 24, 2009, 01:29:26 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 23, 2009, 09:45:49 PM

But fixed income assets should be essential components of a balanced portfolio.  Bonds strike a balance with equities (whose value fluctuates greatly) and cash (whose income is too small and there is almost no appreciation in value).  Not having any bonds is itself a risky proposition.  When we are young we can afford to put everything in equities.  But as we approach retirement age, we need to become more conservative.

Of course they are. I don't trade with my retirement account though. That's where the bonds and funds are. I trade with an account that's just for trading. Speculation. The risky shit. It's nowhere near the size of our real retirement accounts. I don't trade with those. The sad thing is, I've done WAY better with my speculative account than I have with the 401k or either IRA over the last year.  :P

I don't have all those different accounts.  Just one single account fully controlled by me and me alone.  You guys probably have lots of different tax regulations.  We don't.  The government doesn't tax our investment incomes, and doesn't add anything to our retirement accounts. We're on our own.  My pension is there as a job benefit. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on December 24, 2009, 01:54:20 AM
I'm investing virtually all of our net savings in shares atm and expect to continue to do so for the forseeable future, can't be bothered with those pesky bonds  :P

OTOH, we do own two houses outright and also both have government-guaranteed and inflation-protected final-salary pensions to look forward to. So I think that the share purchases are actually putting our finances into a more balanced state.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 02:24:16 AM
QuoteThe U.S. stock market is wrapping up what is likely to be its worst decade ever.
In nearly 200 years of recorded stock-market history, no calendar decade has seen such a dismal performance as the 2000s.
Investors would have been better off investing in pretty much anything else, from bonds to gold or even just stuffing money under a mattress. Since the end of 1999, stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange have lost an average of 0.5% a year thanks to the twin bear markets this decade.
Worst Decade Ever

See an interactive chart of annual returns, by year and decade


The period has provided a lesson for ordinary Americans who used stocks as their primary way of saving for retirement.
Many investors were lured to the stock market by the bull market that began in the early 1980s and gained force through the 1990s. But coming out of the 1990s, the best calendar decade in history with a 17.6% average annual gain, stocks simply had gotten too expensive. Companies also pared dividends, cutting into investor returns. And in a time of financial panic like 2008, stocks were a terrible place to invest.
With two weeks to go in 2009, the declines since the end of 1999 make the last 10 years the worst calendar decade for stocks going back to the 1820s, when reliable stock market records begin, according to data compiled by Yale University finance professor William Goetzmann. He estimates it would take a 3.6% rise between now and year end for the decade to come in better than the 0.2% decline suffered by stocks during the Depression years of the 1930s.
The past decade also well underperformed other decades with major financial panics, such as in 1907 and 1893.
"The last 10 years have been a nightmare, really poor," for U.S. stocks, said Michele Gambera, chief economist at Ibbotson Associates.
While the overall market trend has been a steady march upward, the last decade is a reminder that stocks can decline over long periods of time, he said.
"It's not frequent, but it can happen," Mr. Gambera said.
To some degree these statistics are a quirk of the calendar, based on when the 10-year period starts and finishes. The 10-year periods ending in 1937 and 1938 were worse than the most recent calendar decade because they capture the full effect of stocks hitting their peak in 1929 and the October crash of that year.
From 2000 through November 2009, investors would have been far better off owning bonds, which posted gains ranging from 5.6% to more than 8% depending on the sector, according to Ibbotson. Gold was the best-performing asset, up 15% a year this decade after losing 3% each year during the 1990s.
This past decade looks even worse when the impact of inflation is considered.
Getty Images CLICK ON IMAGE: Markets during the '80s and '90s were fixated on the cheap and powerful computing power created by Microsoft's Bill Gates. Click on the image to see the annual returns, by decade, for a broad measure of stock-ownership.



Since the end of 1999, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has lost an average of 3.3% a year on an inflation-adjusted basis, compared with a 1.8% average annual gain during the 1930s when deflation afflicted the economy, according to data compiled by Charles Jones, finance professor at North Carolina State University. His data use dividend estimates for 2009 and the consumer price index for the 12 months through November.
Even the 1970s, when a bear market was coupled with inflation, wasn't as bad as the most recent period. The S&P 500 lost 1.4% after inflation during that decade.
That is especially disappointing news for investors, considering that a key goal of investing in stocks is to increase money faster than inflation.
"This decade is the big loser," said Mr. Jones.
For investors counting on stocks for retirement plans, the most recent decade means many have fallen behind retirement goals. Many financial plans assume a 10% annual return for stocks over the long term, but over the last 20 years, the S&P 500 is registering 8.2% annual gains.
Should stocks average 10% a year for the next decade, that would lift the 30-year average return to only 8.8%, said North Carolina State's Mr. Jones. It is even worse news for those who started investing in 2000; a 10% return a year would get them up to only 4.4% a year.
There were ways to make money in U.S. stocks during the last decade. But the returns paled in comparison with those posted in the 1990s.
Of the 30 stocks today that comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average, only 13 are up since the end of 1999, and just two, Caterpillar Inc. and United Technologies Corp., doubled over the 10-year span.
So what went wrong for the U.S. stock market?
For starters, it turned out that the old rules of valuation matter.
"We came into this decade horribly overpriced," said Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of money managers GMO LLC.
In late 1999, the stocks in the S&P 500 were trading at about an all-time high of 44 times earnings, based on Yale professor Robert Shiller's measure, which tracks prices compared with 10-year earnings and adjusts for inflation. That compares with a long-run average of about 16.
Buying at those kinds of values, "you'd better believe you're going to get dismal returns for a considerable chunk of time," said Mr. Grantham, whose firm predicted 10 years ago that the S&P 500 likely would lose nearly 2% a year in the 10 years through 2009.
Despite the woeful returns this decade, stocks today aren't a steal. The S&P is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 20 on Mr. Shiller's measure.
Mr. Grantham thinks U.S. large-cap stocks are about 30% overpriced, which means returns should be about 30% less than their long-term average for the next seven years. That means returns of just 1.6% a year before adding in inflation.
Another hurdle for the stock market has been the decline in dividends that began in the late 1980s.
Over the long term, dividends have played an important role in helping stocks achieve a 9.5% average annual return since 1926. But since that year, the average yield on S&P 500 stocks was roughly 4%. This decade it has averaged about 1.8%, said North Carolina State's Mr. Jones.
That difference "doesn't sound like much," said Mr. Jones, "but you've got to make it up through price appreciation." Unless dividends rise back toward their long-term averages, Mr. Jones thinks investors may need to lower expectations. Rather than the nearly 10% a year that has been the historical average, stocks may be good for only about 7%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on December 24, 2009, 02:40:22 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 02:24:16 AM
QuoteThe U.S. stock market is wrapping up what is likely to be its worst decade ever.
In nearly 200 years of recorded stock-market history, no calendar decade has seen such a dismal performance as the 2000s.
Investors would have been better off investing in pretty much anything else, from bonds to gold or even just stuffing money under a mattress. Since the end of 1999, stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange have lost an average of 0.5% a year thanks to the twin bear markets this decade.

That's why individual stocks are the way to go.

Apple    Jan. 1, 2000  25.94   
           Dec. 1, 2009  202.10


Google  Sep. 1, 2004   102.37
           Dec. 1, 2009   611.68



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 04:56:43 AM
Well, if you have the ability to pick winning stocks AND avoid poor performing stocks, sure.  Thing is, I certainly don't have this ability, and I will be very, very skeptical of anyone who claims they do. 

I buy individual stocks not because I think I know better than the market, but because stocks with a higher dividend yield than average suit my needs better.   
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 09:22:00 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 23, 2009, 10:16:44 PM
What do you people think about safe withdrawal rates? 

For those who don't know, it is a simple rule of thumb way to calculate the amount of assets needed for retirement.  It represents the amount of money you can withdraw from the portfolio every year without exhausting the portfolio.  Say, you need $50k a year after retirement.  Assume that you adopt a 4% SWR, then the initial asset requirement is $50k divided by 0.04 = $1.25 million.  How much money you need after retirement is really a matter of personal preference.  So the SWR becomes crucial.  The typical SWR regarded as safe is 4%.  Anything below 4% is conservative and stands a higher chance of success.  An SWR of 5% or above is risky - the portfolio may be depleted before you die. 

There is a huge amount of literature written on this.  Some say it is idiotic, because the strategy could be too conservative and leave a large unspent balance.  Some say they've tested the strategy with real data from the past century or so, and it can withstand a recession the scale of the Great Depression.  Some say the best idea is to buy an annuity.  Some say annuities are traps. 

What say you?
You know what I'm going to say, buy annuities.  They're designed to do exactly what you're trying to do, but due to the fact that you're pooling with many, many people, it allows you to do it with much less conservatism.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 24, 2009, 09:28:24 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on December 24, 2009, 01:29:26 AM
Of course they are. I don't trade with my retirement account though. That's where the bonds and funds are. I trade with an account that's just for trading. Speculation. The risky shit. It's nowhere near the size of our real retirement accounts. I don't trade with those. The sad thing is, I've done WAY better with my speculative account than I have with the 401k or either IRA over the last year.  :P
Yes, this describes my situation exactly as well.  I'm talking about my "fun" portfolio here when I say I don't mess with bonds... and just like you I did much better with my fun portfolio than my IRA did.  LOL can I be: Wall Street broker.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 24, 2009, 10:25:49 AM
For my spare cash trades, I always look for trends. After the 2001 attacks, I moved into defense and security stocks. After the tech bubble burst, I bought good tech companies when they were on their lows. When the car makers went south, I bought some Ford at around 2.

And that GM goofyness that netted me 120 bucks.  :blush:

Worked well for me so far.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 24, 2009, 10:27:47 AM
:yes: Always look for a solid company going through a bit of bad news/publicity.  Assuming you believe they will weather the crisis, you will PROFIT.  I wish I was able to buy stock in whatever company makes Tylenol right after the news broke back in the early 80s that some weirdo was putting poison in Tylenol bottles.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 24, 2009, 10:32:33 AM
Quote from: Caliga on December 24, 2009, 10:27:47 AM
:yes: Always look for a solid company going through a bit of bad news/publicity.  Assuming you believe they will weather the crisis, you will PROFIT.  I wish I was able to buy stock in whatever company makes Tylenol right after the news broke back in the early 80s that some weirdo was putting poison in Tylenol bottles.

McNeil. Edit: looked it up, ans it was Johnson & Johnson.

Gotta watch out for companies that go under, like Chi-Chi's when that hep A scare hit the chain.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 24, 2009, 10:34:22 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 24, 2009, 10:32:33 AM
Gotta watch out for companies that go under, like Chi-Chi's when that hep A scare hit the chain.
:pinch: My dad worked for Prandium (Chi-Chi parent) as their Director of Facilities when that happened.  That was the end of his restaurant industry career.  Now he's semi-retired (he runs a small woodworking shop these days).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 24, 2009, 10:37:08 AM
Quote from: Caliga on December 24, 2009, 10:34:22 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 24, 2009, 10:32:33 AM
Gotta watch out for companies that go under, like Chi-Chi's when that hep A scare hit the chain.
:pinch: My dad worked for Prandium (Chi-Chi parent) as their Director of Facilities when that happened.  That was the end of his restaurant industry career.  Now he's semi-retired (he runs a small woodworking shop these days).

Ow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 24, 2009, 10:39:27 AM
I doubt he had anything to do with it, but they blamed a bunch of their senior dudes and I think he got canned because of it, but he's "sensitive" about the topic and won't discuss it with me or my bro.  I know he got a nice severance package, so he probably made out better than the dudes who didn't get broomed and were still around when the company went under, and therefore didn't get jack shit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 10:54:19 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 09:22:00 AM

You know what I'm going to say, buy annuities.  They're designed to do exactly what you're trying to do, but due to the fact that you're pooling with many, many people, it allows you to do it with much less conservatism.

NEVER  :P  Reasons:

Annuities make sense for people who are so far from saving the needed amount of cash to retire early.  They need to export the risk.  I don't.  I am on track to achieve my goals.

I already have an annuity in the form of my pension. 

In HK, most annuities have variable payouts, depending on market conditions.  In effect, I am giving the insurance companies a discretionary mandate to manage the money for me.  I'll do that when hell freezes over. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 11:04:56 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 10:54:19 AM
NEVER  :P  Reasons:

Annuities make sense for people who are so far from saving the needed amount of cash to retire early.  They need to export the risk.  I don't.  I am on track to achieve my goals.
I don't see how that follows.  Annuities take out the uncertainty that comes from your inability to manage your mortality risk. 

If you don't know when you're going to die, you can't plan your post-retirement spending appropriately.  You'll have to spend too little on average, because you have to self-insure against the risk of living too long. 

Self-insurance is almost always a very bad idea when the risk being insured against is a large portion of your net worth.  The reason insurance prospers is that it takes advantage of the Law of Large Numbers, and on average allows people to use much more of their assets instead of putting them away for a rainy day.  People like you don't see the forest for the trees.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 11:10:21 AM
Quote from: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 11:04:56 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 10:54:19 AM
NEVER  :P  Reasons:

Annuities make sense for people who are so far from saving the needed amount of cash to retire early.  They need to export the risk.  I don't.  I am on track to achieve my goals.
I don't see how that follows.  Annuities take out the uncertainty that comes from your inability to manage your mortality risk. 

If you don't know when you're going to die, you can't plan your post-retirement spending appropriately.  You'll have to spend too little on average, because you have to self-insure against the risk of living too long. 

Self-insurance is almost always a very bad idea when the risk being insured against is a large portion of your net worth.  The reason insurance prospers is that it takes advantage of the Law of Large Numbers, and on average allows people to use much more of their assets instead of putting them away for a rainy day.  People like you don't see the forest for the trees.

1. All insurance companies are crooks.  I don't trust them.  Not one bit.  There is no way I'll entrust the final few decades of my life to these guys.

2. As I said, I already have an annuity.  Life long.  Guranteed by the government.  Indexed to inflation.  Defined benefit. I am already covered. 

3. Almost all annuities have life insurance components.  I don't need them.  My wife doesn't need them.  I'll be forced to buy something that we don't need. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 11:21:51 AM
Your pension insures you against becoming destitute.  It doesn't insure you against leaving too much assets unused when you die, unless you splurge for the first couple of years and then fall back on your pension.

Anyway, my advice wasn't just directed at you, it was an answer to a general question.  If you save a whole ton of money, and then draw down a percentage of it, you're leaving a lot of money on the table.  Good for your heirs, not so good for you. 

I have yet to see a criticism of annuities from financial advisers that address their primary role as an insurance.  All of the criticisms focus on how they're bad investments (duh, it's insurance, it's not the purpose of insurance to maximize returns).  That leads me to believe that those people are just typical financial advisers, and thus mind-bogglingly stupid.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 11:35:15 AM
I think annuities have to fit the person.  I do not deny that, for some people, having annuities maybe better off for them.  In my case, they are clearly unsuitable. 

One thing I don't get.  How do annuities insure me against leaving too many assets unused?  Assuming that I do buy an annuity, and very soon after that, I die.  How does the annuity benefit me exactly?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 11:53:39 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 11:35:15 AM
One thing I don't get.  How do annuities insure me against leaving too many assets unused?  Assuming that I do buy an annuity, and very soon after that, I die.  How does the annuity benefit me exactly?
Assuming that you don't buy an annuity, and very soon after not buying it you die.  How does that bundle of money you didn't spend on an annuity benefit you?

As for how annuities insure you against leaving too many assets, it's pretty simple, and I've written about that before.  Without annuity, you have to plan for dying at a very old age, to be conservative.  With annuity, you can always live like you're going to die at an average age.  That means more money to spend per year, because you're planning for less years.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 12:09:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 11:53:39 AM

As for how annuities insure you against leaving too many assets, it's pretty simple, and I've written about that before.  Without annuity, you have to plan for dying at a very old age, to be conservative.  With annuity, you can always live like you're going to die at an average age.  That means more money to spend per year, because you're planning for less years.

Then my pension already serves the same purpose. 

Whether annuities are beneficial will depend on the numbers.  If the returns are too low and the terms too unfavourable, one maybe better off investing the money himself.  And who will help me if my insurance company fails?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 24, 2009, 12:16:46 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 12:09:21 PM
  And who will help me if my insurance company fails?

For Americans, http://www.winknightsmoney.org/features/archives/2009/01/krr_is_your_annuity_safe.html

You I assume, would be screwed over.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 12:27:00 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 24, 2009, 12:16:46 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 12:09:21 PM
  And who will help me if my insurance company fails?

For Americans, http://www.winknightsmoney.org/features/archives/2009/01/krr_is_your_annuity_safe.html

You I assume, would be screwed over.

Most definitely!  I am taking on an awful lot of additional risk by buying an annuity.  Talk about putting all eggs in one basket.  Last year when AIG was nearly bust there were huge queues in their HK office to cancel insurance policies. 

This reminds me.  I have to give yet another talk to my wife to reassure her on the virtues of not buying any annuity, life insurance, mortgage insurance etc etc. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 12:27:19 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 12:09:21 PM
Then my pension already serves the same purpose. 
As I said short time ago, it insures you against destitution at very old age, which is something.  It still doesn't insure you against an inefficient allocation of your other funds due to lack of mortality risk management.
QuoteWhether annuities are beneficial will depend on the numbers.  If the returns are too low and the terms too unfavourable, one maybe better off investing the money himself. 
Obviously.  If the insurance company takes a 90% cut, annuities are not going to be a good deal.
QuoteAnd who will help me if my insurance company fails?
In US we have guarantee funds, which insure you against insurance company's insolvency up to a certain level.  Even before that point, insurance companies are heavily regulated to protect the capital that funds their policies.  I don't know what level of regulation there is in Hong Kong.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 24, 2009, 12:36:03 PM
Figures the insurance guy would pitch annuities.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 12:36:51 PM
There were a couple of small bank failures in HK a few years ago.  Depositors got exactly zero dollars back.  No, I'm not going to trust them. 

You know what kind of people sell insurance policies here?  Youngsters, with no experience whatsoever.  They don't have a penny in salary.  The insurance companies give them like US$500 a month.  These are loans.  If they don't sign any contracts, the company will approach debt collectors.  These agents have every incentive to lie, deceive, exaggerate, distort, misrepresent, etc. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 12:38:48 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on December 24, 2009, 12:36:03 PM
Figures the insurance guy would pitch annuities.  :P
I'm not working on the life side, that's not even in the domain of the actuarial society I belong to.  The only thing being an insurance guy does is make me aware of the need to mitigate the risks I can't afford to take.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 12:45:27 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 12:36:51 PM
There were a couple of small bank failures in HK a few years ago.  Depositors got exactly zero dollars back.  No, I'm not going to trust them. 

You know what kind of people sell insurance policies here?  Youngsters, with no experience whatsoever.  They don't have a penny in salary.  The insurance companies give them like US$500 a month.  These are loans.  If they don't sign any contracts, the company will approach debt collectors.  These agents have every incentive to lie, deceive, exaggerate, distort, misrepresent, etc.
Life insurance salesmen in US don't enjoy the greatest of reputations either, although it's almost on par with the reputation of used car salesmen.  However, that's neither here nor there.

Sounds like the problem is not with insurance, but rather with a stupidly unregulated capitalism.  If there is any example of it being penny wise and pound foolish, it's this.  At some point the uncertainty has heavy costs in itself, and it definitely has huge costs when you can't rely on your bank deposits or your insurance policies.  Obviously if you can't trust financial institutions to honor their commitments, the value of any financial instrument goes down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 24, 2009, 01:00:54 PM
Sure, but a lot of the biggest money advisers out there are very hard on annuities. I think it's mostly due to their costs compared to other things.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 01:09:13 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on December 24, 2009, 01:00:54 PM
Sure, but a lot of the biggest money advisers out there are very hard on annuities. I think it's mostly due to their costs compared to other things.
And, as I said, it's a stupid reason to bash them, which is not surprising, because money advisers are a stupid and corrupt bunch.  Insurance products aren't supposed to maximize returns, they're supposed to protect you against adverse outcomes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on December 24, 2009, 02:28:56 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 24, 2009, 04:56:43 AM
Well, if you have the ability to pick winning stocks AND avoid poor performing stocks, sure.  Thing is, I certainly don't have this ability, and I will be very, very skeptical of anyone who claims they do.

I don't think picking Apple and Google as winning stocks is taking too great a leap.  ;)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on December 25, 2009, 12:23:29 AM
QuoteTop Three ETFs for 2010
Don Dion
12/24/09 - 06:00 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- In 2009, investors in exchange-traded funds flocked to alternative assets, emerging markets and bonds.

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF(GLD Quote) and Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(VWO Quote) both had net asset inflows of more than $1 billion.

Bond funds like iShares' TIPS ETF(TIP Quote) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF(LQD Quote) ranked among the largest funds in the ETF universe.

In the wake of the global economic crisis, some investors regained their appetite for risk, while others sought protection from it.

As 2010 begins, a different group of market forces, political pressures and investor frustrations will guide the flow of ETF assets and help to shape the future of the fund industry. ETFs, with their unique structure and low management costs, will continue to offer investors convenient ways to access individual sectors, market trends and portfolio strategies. While many of the concerns that inspired investors in 2009 will still affect investing in the months ahead, ETF investors should consider the three following themes, and their corresponding funds, as they prepare their portfolios for 2010:

Dividends: iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF(DVY Quote)

With rates pegged near zero for the foreseeable future, investors will have to venture out of bond and money market funds and into equities to find returns. High-yield dividend stocks are attractive holdings for investors looking to step off the sidelines and put their money to work.

ETFs like DVY are a good way to gain exposure to high-yielding equities while minimizing security-specific risk.

DVY's strategy is to identify companies with the highest-paying dividends, and then eliminate the riskiest holdings with a series of "screens." In an effort to avoid exposure to extremely distressed firms, DVY's index omits REITs, as well as firms that have paid more than 60% of earnings in the form of dividends or cut their dividend in the past five years.

DVY is a large, liquid ETF with top holdings that currently include Chevron(CVX Quote), Kimberly-Clark(KMB Quote) and McDonald's(MCD Quote). The top sector allocations in DVY's portfolio are utilities, consumer goods and industrials, with 26.56%, 18.55% and 14.97% allocations, respectively. Inflation Protection: iShares Barclays TIPS Bond(TIP Quote)

Low interest rates, a weak dollar and massive stimulus spending will continue to keep talk of both inflation and deflation in the headlines in 2010. While hard economic data has yet to demonstrate a real inflation threat, it makes sense to include inflation protection in your portfolio, and to do so before periods of high inflation.

Buying shares of an ETF like TIP, which tracks a portfolio of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), is an easy and inexpensive way to protect against inflation in a diversified portfolio. TIP has the advantage of being the first mover in the TIPS ETF space, and this ETF has a laddered structure to provide exposure to securities with different maturities.

According to recent data from the National Stock Exchange, TIP is the sixth largest fund in the ETF universe when measured by assets. TIP experienced an incredible expansion in 2009, and government initiatives, coupled with investor fears, should help to keep this fund at the top of the pack in 2010. Green Energy: PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy(PBW Quote)

Science has yet to come to a consensus on global warming, but two hard facts will keep "green energy" a hot topic in 2010. First, the rapid expansion of emerging markets and limited natural resources have helped to put a premium on the development of green energy technology. Secondly, both legislation and regulation are working to curb carbon emissions in both the U.S. and abroad. (See "Five Energy ETFs to Watch".)

PBW is designed to deliver capital appreciation through exposure to companies that focus on greener and generally renewable sources of energy and technologies that facilitate cleaner energy. This large, liquid ETF tracks 52 firms, including JA Solar Holdings(JASO Quote), Fuel Systems Solutions(FSYS Quote) and Advanced Battery Technologies(ABAT Quote).

Cleaner energy and the reduction of carbon emissions will be top items on the political agenda in 2010. As companies work to comply with new standards, investors in PBW will already be ahead of the curve. (See "ETF Plays for Copenhagen Talks".)

ETFs are an easy, inexpensive way to gain access to short-term market trends and diversify a long-term portfolio. As investors move assets into segments of the market like clean energy, inflation protected securities and high-yielding equities, the rapidly expanding ETF marketplace will evolve to meet their changing needs.

Inflation concerns fueled the recent launch of three additional TIPS ETFs by bond giant PIMCO, while the buzz over renewable energy has produced increasingly focused green ETFs.

Investors looking to participate in these areas of the market should aim for ETFs with high liquidity and low expense ratios.

DVY, TIP and PBW are good funds to target in 2010.

-- Written by Don Dion in Williamstown, Mass.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 25, 2009, 12:03:32 PM
Quote from: citizen k on December 24, 2009, 02:28:56 PM

I don't think picking Apple and Google as winning stocks is taking too great a leap.  ;)

It is not good enough to just pick Apple and Google.  You have to hold onto them, and avoid all other losers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 25, 2009, 12:19:45 PM
Quote from: DGuller on December 24, 2009, 01:09:13 PM

And, as I said, it's a stupid reason to bash them, which is not surprising, because money advisers are a stupid and corrupt bunch.  Insurance products aren't supposed to maximize returns, they're supposed to protect you against adverse outcomes.

But insurance doesn't come free.  Cost is a valid concern in evaluating whether I should get the insurance or not.  In the case of annuities another problem is that the cost to me is very opaque, that I have trouble even seeing the price tag. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 25, 2009, 12:38:47 PM
This whole business is so tough.  Knowing that every wrong action (or inaction) has severe consequences puts a lot of pressure on me.  I am not in this for fun.  I am betting my future.  I just can't stop me from blaming me.  Why didn't you sell at that time?  Why was I a pussy and didn't buy back then? 

Right now the stock levels are too low to sell, and too high to buy.  So I'm stuck.  But I keep telling myself that I need to do something
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on December 25, 2009, 04:58:12 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 25, 2009, 12:38:47 PM
This whole business is so tough.  Knowing that every wrong action (or inaction) has severe consequences puts a lot of pressure on me.  I am not in this for fun.  I am betting my future.  I just can't stop me from blaming me.  Why didn't you sell at that time?  Why was I a pussy and didn't buy back then? 

Right now the stock levels are too low to sell, and too high to buy.  So I'm stuck.  But I keep telling myself that I need to do something
Ah the Chinese and their gambling.
What is it with that?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 25, 2009, 05:18:04 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 25, 2009, 12:38:47 PMBut I keep telling myself that I need to do something.

Sometimes nothing is the right thing to do. It's just hard to keep holding when your gut tells you there is uncertainty or trouble ahead. Like the Caterpillar example in the OP. For me it just comes down to how good the asset in question is and how much ability to survive the unknown it has.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on December 26, 2009, 10:33:26 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 25, 2009, 12:03:32 PM
Quote from: citizen k on December 24, 2009, 02:28:56 PM

I don't think picking Apple and Google as winning stocks is taking too great a leap.  ;)

It is not good enough to just pick Apple and Google.  You have to hold onto them, and avoid all other losers.

You'll never be able to do that. You can only be diversified to hedge your bets.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on December 26, 2009, 10:34:57 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 25, 2009, 04:58:12 PM
Ah the Chinese and their gambling.
What is it with that?

Human nature?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valdemar on December 27, 2009, 07:30:34 AM
I'm doing like most here, my retirement fund is part of my employment and I let them take a substantial part of my income, even if their investments is subpar they have the added benefit of insurance and guarantees of payment if by some reason I need to retire before planned time (and with my current medical sit that may well be in the 50s or early 60s instead of full retirement age)

On the private side I put it into longterm basic stocks. Been very fortunate with the timing of stocks like Carlsberg (+100%), FL Smidt (+80%) and trucking/transport (+60%) all within a year, mostly due to the timing of the buy... others I've had for a long term are banking (which suffered hard) and medical.. which has turned out to be THE perfect longterm, but then I've had them 20 years or so :D

I DO diversify with bonds, but the DEN realestate bond makret is very unique in terms of safety.

V
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 02, 2010, 06:47:26 AM
So let's say your family has some modest saving accounts, plus about 10k$ which could be used for the hope of a somewhat higher yield. Where to put it? :hmm:

Assuming (and this is quite unlikely, sadly) that there is reasonable access from a Hungarian brokerage to foreign funds, would it make any sense to put half of it in a couple of emerging market funds, and the other half into the whatever-its-name gold ETF? Thinking along the lines of course that if there is yet another crash, people will flock to gold, while if there will be a consensus that teh depression is over, emerging markets would take off again?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 02, 2010, 01:19:17 PM
I think if you buy gold right now you're buying into a bubble.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Fate on January 02, 2010, 01:28:02 PM
You mean the gold bugs that advertise non stop on FOXNEWS and FOXBUSINESS are wrong?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 02, 2010, 01:53:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 02, 2010, 01:19:17 PM
I think if you buy gold right now you're buying into a bubble.

Yeah but last time I checked (pre-holidays) it was going down a bit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 02, 2010, 01:58:54 PM
Quote from: Fate on January 02, 2010, 01:28:02 PM
You mean the gold bugs that advertise non stop on FOXNEWS and FOXBUSINESS are wrong?  :hmm:
Dude, you need some new hobbies.

Tamas: if I were you I would put some money into companies that service Chinese domestic demand.  At some point the Chinese currency will have to rise.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on January 03, 2010, 11:03:26 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 02, 2010, 06:47:26 AM
So let's say your family has some modest saving accounts, plus about 10k$ which could be used for the hope of a somewhat higher yield. Where to put it? :hmm:

Assuming (and this is quite unlikely, sadly) that there is reasonable access from a Hungarian brokerage to foreign funds, would it make any sense to put half of it in a couple of emerging market funds, and the other half into the whatever-its-name gold ETF? Thinking along the lines of course that if there is yet another crash, people will flock to gold, while if there will be a consensus that teh depression is over, emerging markets would take off again?

Gold is a very high risk bet.  I won't put half my portfolio in that.  Emerging market funds are high risk too, so chances your portfolio will be extremely volatile.  Nothing wrong with that, if "high risk; high return" is what you're after. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2010, 06:10:03 AM
I had a little Christmas money to put in my IRA and ended up putting it in AT&T.  I figured we aren't going to see any more significant increase in prices for a while, so I browsed the list of high dividend stocks on E*Trade's stock suggestions.  The great majority were real estate investment trusts, which I know nothing about (but if anyone feels like explaining why so many are on a list of high dividend stocks, feel free).  6+% dividend yield on the AT&T.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on January 09, 2010, 04:43:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2010, 06:10:03 AM
The great majority were real estate investment trusts, which I know nothing about (but if anyone feels like explaining why so many are on a list of high dividend stocks, feel free).  6+% dividend yield on the AT&T.

QuoteWhy REITs Deserve Your Attention
Kevin Grewal, Contributor
10/09/09 - 09:30 AM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As the real estate market shows some signs of prosperity, real estate investment trusts have been drawing investor attention and for good reason.

At the commercial real estate level, REITs are attractive because they offer an opportunity to a debt market that banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions are not considering. A weak labor force, declines in consumer spending and other recessionary factors put pressure on income-producing properties and increased stress on the loans that these properties supported. In turn, this created an opportunity for REITs to lend to these income-property owners.

As for residential REITs, they are drawing attention because of their record-low prices. Some investors think that the worst has past for residential real estate and are looking to buy when prices are low. The trends in both commercial and residential REITs has enabled the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate(IYR Quote) to reap the benefits. The ETF is up 90% from its March low of $22.21 to close at $42.21 on Thursday.

This attractiveness appears to be emerging globally as well. In fact, international REITs are drawing even more attention because they earn profits in foreign currencies and are enabling investors a new way to hedge a weakening dollar. As a result, the iShares FTSE/NAREIT Global ex-US(IFGL Quote) has more than doubled from its March low of $14.63 to close at $30.41 on Thursday.

When investing in these equities, keep in mind the inherent risks that are involved. A good way to mitigate these risks is through the implementation of an exit strategy, which tells investors specific price levels when an upward trend in equities could be coming to an end. Such an exit strategy can be found at www.SmartStops.net.

Written By Kevin Grewal in Laguna Niguel, Calif.


QuoteREITs With 15% Yields Grab Investors
Jake Lynch
07/22/09 - 02:00 AM EDT

Real estate investment trusts, or REITs, have suffered since the recession hit. But many investors threw out the babies with the bath water. Annaly Capital Management(NLY Quote) and MFA Financial(MFA Quote) are two misunderstood REITs that offer huge yields and are poised to rebound.

To further limit risk, consider gaining exposure to the two stocks through the First Trust Specialty Finance and Financial Opportunities(FGB Quote) closed-end fund or the Burnham Financial Services(BURKX Quote) mutual fund.

Annaly is a REIT that manages a portfolio of securities, including collateralized mortgage obligations, pass-through certificates and callable debentures. As the subprime mania seized the market, the stock was battered. It has fallen 15% since February 2008.

After posting a fourth-quarter loss of 95 cents a share, Annaly resumed profitability in the first quarter as net income rose 44% to $350 million despite a 10% drop in revenue. The operating margin remained exorbitant at 96%, and the net margin widened 28 percentage points to 48%. Like most REITs, Annaly's capital structure is skewed toward leverage, which is evident in its debt-to-equity ratio of 6.

The trust invests in mortgage-backed securities that have actual or implied AAA-ratings. By doing so, it minimizes credit risk. And the company generates above-average returns by leveraging its positions. Although that strategy sounds reminiscent of Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers, it isn't. The company efficiently regulates risk. Its operating performance has been remarkably consistent during a period of financial tumult.

Annaly distributes income to shareholders through cash distributions. The yield is currently 15%, more than four times that of the S&P 500 Index. Mortgage-backed securities are still cheap because of investors' aversion to real estate and an effort by banks to purge their balance sheets of so-called toxic assets.

Annaly is seizing the opportunity to borrow at low rates and invest in undervalued securities. The downside to its stock is affordability. The shares have surged 22% in three months and now trade at an expensive price-to-earnings ratio of 20. But the high yield compensates for a costly share price.

MFA offers a similar story. It's a mortgage REIT specializing in hybrid and adjustable-rate mortgage-backed securities. But MFA, unlike Annaly, swallowed its major loss in the first quarter of 2008 and has since achieved four consecutive periods of earnings growth.

First-quarter revenue rose 28% to $132 million as the company swung to a net profit of $54 million, or 23 cents per share, from a loss of $86 million, or 61 cents per share, in the year-earlier period. The operating margin remained steady at 96% and the net margin stretched to 41%. The pitch is the same as Annaly, but MFA is cheaper. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio under 7 and offers a 14% yield. TheStreet.com Ratings gives MFA a "hold" recommendation because it has a slightly weaker financial position.



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 10, 2010, 05:10:25 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on January 03, 2010, 11:03:26 AMNothing wrong with that, if "high risk; high return" is what you're after.


He's a fairly young guy. It's not an unreasonable strategy I'd say.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 10, 2010, 05:11:07 PM
I'm investing in canned goods and shotguns.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 10, 2010, 05:19:30 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 10, 2010, 05:11:07 PM
I'm investing in canned goods and shotguns.
hope you remembered to invest in some shells and can openers too :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 10, 2010, 05:44:01 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 10, 2010, 05:19:30 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 10, 2010, 05:11:07 PM
I'm investing in canned goods and shotguns.
hope you remembered to invest in some shells and can openers too :P

The Brain Gremlin from gremlins II can't be wrong.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MBp4kL-rN8

:)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on January 11, 2010, 12:53:57 PM
One of my funds is racking up 62% over 1 year.

Damn. It's -6.5% over 2 years, but I don't care, I wasnt there 2 years ago.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2010, 04:27:31 AM
Let's say I want to have an account abroad from where I want to buy ETFs, and as a result store a very significant amount of my savings there (basically, my family has enough wealth to the effect that a catastrophic run would "only" destroy my hopes of moving abroad, and not me personally. So I dont need at this point to keep a traditional savings account). Do you know any really big and reliable online-available companies?
Basically I want to sleep well knowing i can take my money back any time despite the different country thing. But also important: this way, could I avoid my country's 20% tax on my gains? :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 02, 2010, 05:26:28 AM
I don't know about Hungary, but my own experience is that it is very, very difficult to set up an offshore account.  Banks only do it for their most wealthy clients.  You may have a shot if you have US$1 million in liquid assets (i.e. not counting the equity in your primary residence).  But even that is no gurantee. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2010, 05:30:23 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 02, 2010, 05:26:28 AM
I don't know about Hungary, but my own experience is that it is very, very difficult to set up an offshore account.  Banks only do it for their most wealthy clients.  You may have a shot if you have US$1 million in liquid assets (i.e. not counting the equity in your primary residence).  But even that is no gurantee.

I already have a Swiss account with an investment bank :P I might end up reactivating that but they are getting suspicious like moving to an other office and shit.

I think I will just open a hungarian account and swallow the god damn taxes (they take half my income, then go ahead and take a fifth of what I make with the other half. Fucking thieves, the lot of them)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 02, 2010, 06:31:53 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2010, 06:10:03 AM
I had a little Christmas money to put in my IRA and ended up putting it in AT&T.  I figured we aren't going to see any more significant increase in prices for a while, so I browsed the list of high dividend stocks on E*Trade's stock suggestions.  The great majority were real estate investment trusts, which I know nothing about (but if anyone feels like explaining why so many are on a list of high dividend stocks, feel free).  6+% dividend yield on the AT&T.
I've got some AT&T stock.  :cool:

I just had to do my taxes (Princesca works under 1099 so has to file early) and I only made $379 in dividends last year, so I may pick up more T.

Princesca used to work for a REIT in Boston.  I dunno why they would yield high dividends, but I do know what a REIT is.  Basically the invest money from shit like pension funds to buy (typically) commercial real estate.  She worked for AMB Property, which at the time owned warehouses all over the US.  IIRC they owned all the warehouses used by PeaPod and Homeruns... not sure if either one of them are still in business.  They also owned some strip malls and general distro centers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2010, 11:25:32 AM
AT&T went in the shitter right after I bought, so now's probably a good time to pick some up. :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2010, 12:03:42 PM
Ok I will do this. I shall build an investment account (mostly) out of ETFs.
Mind you that I barely have enough funds to call the whole enterprise reasonable, but my plan is to adopt new sectors or buy more existing ones in my portfolio every couple of months or so.

My initial plan, along the lines which I shall do further research, is to put half the money into one or two US index ETFs like the SP500 one, as to give it a relatively solid base which should not tank in a heartbeat, but with some chance of a big spike upwards. As my money accumulates, I shall enlarge this part with other first-world index ETFs or more risk-averse industrial sectors.

The other half should be my high-risk stuff. For starters I am thinking about pulling off that emerging-markets-and-gold trick of mine I was contemplating.

:hmm:

Feel free and welcome to tear my ideas into tiny sorry-ass pieces.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2010, 12:25:54 PM
Gold is a retard play.  The bubble will pop eventually, it's only a matter of time.

If I were you, with your cutting edge technology saavy, I would hunt down a small start up with a product that you think will be world beater.  Or as you technology types like to say, a "killer app."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 02, 2010, 12:35:06 PM
I made some money shorting Apple, but I'm regretting not selling off my AMZN as well...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2010, 12:37:46 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 02, 2010, 12:35:06 PM
I made some money shorting Apple, but I'm regretting not selling off my AMZN as well...
I'd be interesting in learning the ABCs of option trading if you're feeling so inclined.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 02, 2010, 12:38:13 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 02, 2010, 12:35:06 PM
I made some money shorting Apple, but I'm regretting not selling off my AMZN as well...

Very wise.  The rule is always "buy on rumour, sell on news", so last week was a perfect time to short AAPL.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 02, 2010, 01:27:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2010, 12:37:46 PM
I'd be interesting in learning the ABCs of option trading if you're feeling so inclined.

Extremely rough overview:

An option is a sort of promise to trade shares (usually 100) at a certain price at a certain time. You are trading the promise, not the shares. It's a contract, basically. An option will have a date and a price (strike price) attached to it. There are two types of options. A call option is the right to buy the stock at the set price. A put option is the right to sell a stock at the price given.

They take this form: (AMZN April 125 call) and will have an option price, say $7.

That is, an option to buy 100 shares of Amazon by April at $125 per share. The price of the option is $7, so I can buy the right to buy 100 shares in April right now for $7. If I don't want to buy the shares before April, I lose my $7. Actually I don't get my $7 back, no matter what happens, but I digress.


The current price of AMZN is like $117. So, if I just buy my 100 shares right now, it would cost me $11700.




Say I think AMZN will go to 130 before May. I can buy the 100 shares for $11700 and then sell them at 130 for $13000. Or, I can buy the April 125 call option for $7 and wait until it gets to 130. Then I can exercise my option at 130, which is, buy the stock per my contract for 125 and sell it for 130 right away. I make $500 bucks and only pay $7. If the stock goes higher than that, I can make more, but only if I do it before May. If the stock never goes over my option price, I lose my $7.

It's useful if you either don't have the money to pay eleven grand for the stock, or for controlling large amounts of stock with only a little money. Say I have the eleven grand in my pocket as in the scenario above, but instead of buying stock and turning my eleven grand into thirteen, I buy options with it:

11k x AMZN April 125 call at $7 = 1571 April 125 call options, or the contract to buy (1571x100) shares of AMZN by April for $125. AMZN goes to 130. I exercise the options (buying 157100 shares at 125 and selling them for 130, making $5 per share)

Risk=$11,000

Profit=$785,500


If it never goes over 125, I lose my 11k.


Put options are the same, only shorting the stock (strike price will be lower than the current trading price of the shares).

Another use is to hedge your bets. Say I bought a bunch of shares in AMZN and I suddenly decide I'm not sure if it will actually meet my predictions or I think it might tank. I can keep the shares I own and also buy some puts. So if the stock goes up as I thought, then I make the money I thought I would and the money I spent on the puts is lost. If it tanks, I can exercise the put options I bought and make enough money to offset the losses in the stock tanking on me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2010, 01:39:32 PM
Let's say your call is in the money, but you don't want to excercise it (maybe you don't have 11 large).  You can sell it before the strike date, right, and presumably the price has risen above 7 dollars?

How are brokerage fees on options?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 02, 2010, 01:53:50 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2010, 01:39:32 PM
Let's say your call is in the money, but you don't want to excercise it (maybe you don't have 11 large).  You can sell it before the strike date, right, and presumably the price has risen above 7 dollars?

Yeah, most of the time, that's what happens. You can trade out your option position in that case, because the price of the option itself will have risen proportionally. ie--the same option you bought for 7 would now be worth a lot more than that.



Quote
How are brokerage fees on options?

Bad.  :P

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 02, 2010, 02:51:01 PM
Option King used to pretty cheap IIRC
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 02, 2010, 04:04:53 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 02, 2010, 01:53:50 PM
Quote
How are brokerage fees on options?

Bad.  :P
:yes:

I have to enable options trading on my account (and there's a fee just to do that), and have never done so due to the costs.

My dad does tons of options trading and is (or claims to be :P ) very good at it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 02, 2010, 04:10:25 PM
I don't do options.

I prefer the Spread or Power I.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 02, 2010, 07:14:25 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 02, 2010, 04:10:25 PM
I don't do options.

I prefer the Spread or Power I.

The spread can kiss my ass. Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 02, 2010, 07:16:56 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 02, 2010, 07:14:25 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 02, 2010, 04:10:25 PM
I don't do options.

I prefer the Spread or Power I.

The spread can kiss my ass. Three yards and a cloud of dust.

Nobody does fullbacks anymore.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 02, 2010, 08:37:33 PM
I don't do options.  Hong Kong has thousands of different kinds of options (if not tens of thousands) being traded at any given moment.  Read any newspaper and you are bound to be bombarded by them.  But research shows that 60-70% of people lose money on them.  The thing is, you are not betting against fellow retail investors.  Those options are issued by large investment banks, who have teams of rocket scientists to do the number crunching.  The terms on the options are specifically designed to make money for them.  The odds are stacked against the little guys.  It's just like the casino.  I won't touch these. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2010, 08:48:21 PM
Actually Mono, though things may be different in HongKongistan, in the US anyone can sell an option, and the price is set by the market, not by evil banks out to fuck you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 02, 2010, 08:56:49 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2010, 08:48:21 PM
Actually Mono, though things may be different in HongKongistan, in the US anyone can sell an option, and the price is set by the market, not by evil banks out to fuck you.

The issue of evil banks aside, I have doubts if options can be classified as an investment.  Options, by definition, have an expiry date.  And it is short to begin with, usually months or even weeks.  In the case of bonds, you're supposed to get back 100% of your principal plus interest when you approach the "expiry date".  Not the case with options.  Come expiry date, you either win, or lose.  If you lose, you lose everything on the option.  That fits the definition of gambling more than the definition of investment.  Options are supposed to complement an existing stock portfolio to reduce risks but for retail investors it is almost impossible to get a good hedge out of the deal.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 02, 2010, 09:48:12 PM
Based on my knowledge of options, they are indeed a gamble, not an investment.  They're basically a zero-sum (on present value basis) side bet before expenses get taken into account.  They can be used for hedging, but they can't be used solely for investing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 02, 2010, 10:01:54 PM
I agree, but there are a few cases derivatives can be thought of as investments.

Maybe the most generic example is corn. Farmers need to have some certainty that they can make a profit before they invest in growing a crop, so they want to lock in a future price. Buyers (especially end consumers) have less need and desire to lock in a price. So excess demand for futures exists among the farmers, which should depress the futures price. In this type of case, a person selling the futures (to the farmers) can think of it as an investment.

(at least in the past, there have been some studies indicating that for agricultural products the markets functioned in this way)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 02, 2010, 10:08:01 PM
Options do have advantanges. 

- it requires very small amounts of capital, usually much smaller than buying stocks.
- the potential gains can be very large, relative to the starting capital. 
- it is quick.  Options can be paid out in months, weeks, and days.
- for retail investors, it is usually difficult to find a way to profit from a falling market.  Options and futures enable us to do so.

A lot of people who cannot afford to buy stocks turn to options.  To buy a single lot of shares of the largest developer in Hong Kong costs more than US$12k.  That's more than a lot of people can afford.  But only a few hundred US$ is needed to buy an option contract on the same company. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 02, 2010, 10:12:02 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 02, 2010, 10:01:54 PM
I agree, but there are a few cases derivatives can be thought of as investments.

Maybe the most generic example is corn. Farmers need to have some certainty that they can make a profit before they invest in growing a crop, so they want to lock in a future price. Buyers (especially end consumers) have less need and desire to lock in a price. So excess demand for futures exists among the farmers, which should depress the futures price. In this type of case, a person selling the futures (to the farmers) can think of it as an investment.

(at least in the past, there have been some studies indicating that for agricultural products the markets functioned in this way)
I would argue that in this case, you're not investing, you're market-making.  In theory this shouldn't even be possible, but practice is less liquid than theory.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 02, 2010, 10:23:18 PM
The learning curve on options is steep.  I took a whole course on derivatives in university, but when I read the options tables in the newspapers I am completely bewildered.  Terms like implied volatility etc are very difficult to understand in the first place, and I personally don't understand their implications.  It'll take a huge effort on my part before I'll begin to get the mechanism on how options work in practice. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 02, 2010, 10:27:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 02, 2010, 10:12:02 PM
I would argue that in this case, you're not investing, you're market-making.  In theory this shouldn't even be possible, but practice is less liquid than theory.

Wouldn't putting your capital to work in a market-making enterprise be an investment?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 02, 2010, 11:14:47 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 02, 2010, 10:27:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 02, 2010, 10:12:02 PM
I would argue that in this case, you're not investing, you're market-making.  In theory this shouldn't even be possible, but practice is less liquid than theory.

Wouldn't putting your capital to work in a market-making enterprise be an investment?
I guess it is investing, but in a somewhat different category.  I view market-making as closer to arbitrage, a guaranteed profit from market inefficiency rather than a calculated risk.  It's not something that can be done by any Joe off the street.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 03, 2010, 11:33:16 AM
Quote from: DGuller on February 02, 2010, 11:14:47 PM

I guess it is investing, but in a somewhat different category.  I view market-making as closer to arbitrage, a guaranteed profit from market inefficiency rather than a calculated risk.  It's not something that can be done by any Joe off the street.

There is still a high risk. If there is a rational expectation that the orange crop will sell at $100 a box, the agricultural community may have to lock in a futures price at $95 because few people have an incentive to sell them the futures without an expectation of profit. But just because you sell a bunch of futures that have an expected gain doesn't mean that you won't lose a fortune if there is a bumper harvest and the price goes to $30 a box.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 09, 2010, 08:41:42 AM
Mehhers. I have opened my trading account, will transfer the money today, but crap: my original plan was that I would start with small amounts per share (fund), like 1k$. however, the minimum fee for american exchanges is 20 bucks, so that would be a 2% loss just by buying the stuff  :mad:

Will probably end up doubling that amount, but then I will postpone the buying of the cross-market fund (that seems to be a less than sure bet right now anyways) and concentrate on the high risk stuff.

I know that gold is more than risky now, but as I said, I want it as a tool to bet on / defend against the weakening of the dollar. Question is, what should be the other pair, something to fly with an optimistic economy. Some general emerging market ETF is what I am thinking.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 09, 2010, 09:14:33 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 09, 2010, 08:41:42 AM
Mehhers. I have opened my trading account, will transfer the money today, but crap: my original plan was that I would start with small amounts per share (fund), like 1k$. however, the minimum fee for american exchanges is 20 bucks, so that would be a 2% loss just by buying the stuff  :mad:

Will probably end up doubling that amount, but then I will postpone the buying of the cross-market fund (that seems to be a less than sure bet right now anyways) and concentrate on the high risk stuff.

I know that gold is more than risky now, but as I said, I want it as a tool to bet on / defend against the weakening of the dollar. Question is, what should be the other pair, something to fly with an optimistic economy. Some general emerging market ETF is what I am thinking.  :hmm:


Emerging market ETFs on american exchanges sounds like the way to go. Pay 1%-2% of your investment in fees to a foreign bank every time you make a move, for the priviledge of investing in your own economy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 09, 2010, 09:47:50 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 09, 2010, 09:14:33 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 09, 2010, 08:41:42 AM
Mehhers. I have opened my trading account, will transfer the money today, but crap: my original plan was that I would start with small amounts per share (fund), like 1k$. however, the minimum fee for american exchanges is 20 bucks, so that would be a 2% loss just by buying the stuff  :mad:

Will probably end up doubling that amount, but then I will postpone the buying of the cross-market fund (that seems to be a less than sure bet right now anyways) and concentrate on the high risk stuff.

I know that gold is more than risky now, but as I said, I want it as a tool to bet on / defend against the weakening of the dollar. Question is, what should be the other pair, something to fly with an optimistic economy. Some general emerging market ETF is what I am thinking.  :hmm:


Emerging market ETFs on american exchanges sounds like the way to go. Pay 1%-2% of your investment in fees to a foreign bank every time you make a move, for the priviledge of investing in your own economy.


:lol:

its more complicated than that :P

there are emerging markets with potential, unlike Hungary :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 09, 2010, 12:28:58 PM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10676708/1/old-guard-etfs-hemorrhaging.html (http://www.thestreet.com/story/10676708/1/old-guard-etfs-hemorrhaging.html)

Comment on the stuff in there plz.

edit: I wonder if the QQQQ and similar "oldies" are indeed such dead dogs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 09, 2010, 12:40:00 PM
Short cover rally today. I took the opportunity to close a bunch of my positions and put my cash on the sideline.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 09, 2010, 03:44:50 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 09, 2010, 12:28:58 PM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10676708/1/old-guard-etfs-hemorrhaging.html (http://www.thestreet.com/story/10676708/1/old-guard-etfs-hemorrhaging.html)

Comment on the stuff in there plz.

edit: I wonder if the QQQQ and similar "oldies" are indeed such dead dogs.

SPY's problem is that IVV does the same thing, and has a lower expense ratio.  SPY recently improved its ratio and they are now about even but IVV has the momentum. 

QQQQ is IMO rather silly; it enjoyed favor in the dotcom era as a way to speculate on fashionable tech stocks, but I can't think of a legit portfolio purpose for it now.  For a US passive ETF, the expense ratio is a bit high.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 09, 2010, 07:16:19 PM
If I look for an ETF, I'll want these things -

- low expenses
- liquidity, i.e. I can get in and out easily
- the dividends are distributed to me
- that the fund invests passively, i.e. closely tracks established indices instead of trying to beat the market
- low minimum investment threshold
- operated by gigantic firms (too big to fail)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 10, 2010, 09:29:21 AM
What is the general take on India's economy?

The couple of opinions I have read on it seem to think that they weren't really affected by the depression, and they have a very domestic economy (do they?).

The two related ETFs did quite well last year, so maybe it is crazy but they seem to be a good "buy and forget" kind of investment.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 17, 2010, 12:54:51 PM
An interesting little article about oil prices:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10682218/1/oil-carry-trade-all-about-contango.html (http://www.thestreet.com/story/10682218/1/oil-carry-trade-all-about-contango.html)

(for the record, obviously the oil futures are beyond my financial means so I am not looking at them).

In the meantime, half of my stockmarket money is in an India ETF now, but I am on the sidelines with the other half, I am planning to perhaps try some short- and midterm trading via CFDs in the meantime.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 17, 2010, 02:59:46 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 10, 2010, 09:29:21 AM
What is the general take on India's economy?

India's economy and the assets that happen to be traded on the Bombay exchange are two different things.  The India ETFs are highly concentrated in a relatively small number of companies that happen to be publically traded, and even more concentrated in industry sector.  So for example, if the Indian economy grows strongly over the next 10-20 years, but the main beneficiaries are privately held SMEs (like an Indian mittelstand), you will not necessarily benefit by owning an India ETF.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 17, 2010, 03:06:26 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 17, 2010, 02:59:46 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 10, 2010, 09:29:21 AM
What is the general take on India's economy?

India's economy and the assets that happen to be traded on the Bombay exchange are two different things.  The India ETFs are highly concentrated in a relatively small number of companies that happen to be publically traded, and even more concentrated in industry sector.  So for example, if the Indian economy grows strongly over the next 10-20 years, but the main beneficiaries are privately held SMEs (like an Indian mittelstand), you will not necessarily benefit by owning an India ETF.

Yeah well this Wisdom Tree fund seem to be much more "on the spot" than the other one (cant remember its name) which is indeed just Indian companies already present in American stock markets.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 19, 2010, 09:49:26 AM
My modest bid on Adobe (via CFD) seems to net a more than expected profit, thanks to some analyst upgrade they received :cheers:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2010, 11:40:40 AM
Does anyone know how long before a dividend issue date you have to buy to get that quarter's dividend?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 19, 2010, 02:03:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2010, 11:40:40 AM
Does anyone know how long before a dividend issue date you have to buy to get that quarter's dividend?

Usually like ten days. It's not always the same. You have to check each company's announcements.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2010, 03:13:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 19, 2010, 02:03:14 PM
Usually like ten days. It's not always the same. You have to check each company's announcements.
Then it looks like I got Tamased. <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2010, 03:57:25 PM
I shot Etrade a question and they answered right back.  Woo hoo.  Whoever is holding on the ex-dividend date gets the dividend.  Based on a sample size of two ex-dividend looks like it comes roughly three weeks before the issue date.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 19, 2010, 04:13:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2010, 03:13:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 19, 2010, 02:03:14 PM
Usually like ten days. It's not always the same. You have to check each company's announcements.
Then it looks like I got Tamased. <_<

:huh:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2010, 04:37:48 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 19, 2010, 04:13:20 PM
:huh:
It's a riff on the Tamas = gypsy joke.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 19, 2010, 04:40:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2010, 04:37:48 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 19, 2010, 04:13:20 PM
:huh:
It's a riff on the Tamas = gypsy joke.

Ah :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 23, 2010, 03:50:51 PM
Almost all my fun account's funds are in cash, but with the tanking this morning on the consumer confidence news, I wanted to play a little bit. So I took on two small positions. Fifty shares each of SLB and WM. I bought them near today's bottom with the Dow down about 88-89. So far the results:



      SLB    

   50    <----#of shares

   60.9687    <----value (current)

   3,050.00    <----position value

   3,022.50    <----cost

   27.50    <----profit

   0.86    <----%gain/loss

   
   

      WM    

   50    

   32.6384    

   1,632.00

   1,639.97    

   -7.97         <----loss   

   -0.49    



It doesn't really want to push up past about -80. I'm not sure if I want to hold these, but hey, if I don't I'll make fifteen bucks.  :lol:

I do think Schlumberger is a good buy after the merger pushed it down a bit.



Edit: And now the dow is down 95 with an hour left.  <_<

My gains are holding though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 23, 2010, 04:44:25 PM
I have discovered that the firm I have my account with offers future CFDs as well on quite good terms. So have been making some plays with small amounts of gold and oil. Certainly had a lucky first week, even managed to catch today's slip (hehe) of oil
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 23, 2010, 08:36:13 PM
Can you guys buy futures online?

I can't.  My bank doesn't offer futures trading.  And brokerages require me to place orders through a human broker, which I hate. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 24, 2010, 03:34:42 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 23, 2010, 08:36:13 PM
Can you guys buy futures online?

I can't.  My bank doesn't offer futures trading.  And brokerages require me to place orders through a human broker, which I hate.

the previous brokerage I used a couple of years ago did let people buy them. But the terms (minimum amount and such) were so that they werent in my leauge, really.

In this case, there are no real futures, but rather future CFDs. So basically I am just making a bet on the given future's price. The minimum amounts for example are 5 ounces of gold, and 25 barrels of oil.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 24, 2010, 01:05:03 PM

"I do love this so"

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.filmdope.com%2FGallery%2FActorsM%2F11610-20780.gif&hash=2fcb6c04453187c54ced907f0c5f70a638d15a51)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on February 25, 2010, 11:21:54 PM
QuoteChina ETF Bets on Rising Middle-Class
Roger Nusbaum
02/25/10 - 05:00 AM EST
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- China has been an important, yet controversial, investment destination for years.

Important because the country is spending money to modernize almost every aspect of people's lives, and controversial as the rest of the world tries to figure out whether there is a lending bubble. Also, China has frosty relations with the U.S. because of the currency peg, trade tariffs, the issue of Taiwan -- even the Dalai Lama.

I have written about where money must be spent in China. The easiest path to do this is to tap into the country's effort to modernize, which has been under way for years but still has a way to go in terms of delivering a middle-class lifestyle to more people.

There are several exchange traded funds that play into this theme, including the new EG Shares China Infrastructure ETF(CHXX Quote). There are ETFs that invest in emerging-market infrastructure, not only China, and there are others that focus on specific sectors in China. Only the EG Shares fund combines the two.

The fund allocates money to nine industries within infrastructure, the largest ones being real estate management and development, at 23%; metals and mining, 21%; construction and engineering, 15%; and electrical equipment, 14%.

The inclusion of real estate will surprise some people, but the reasoning is interesting. China wants to bring a middle-class lifestyle to poorer and more rural parts of the country, mostly the western provinces. Part of this lifestyle includes shopping malls and restaurants, which will be built and run by real estate companies. EG Shares' chief investment officer, Richard Kang, made a point of mentioning the importance of lifestyle enhancement as a source of social stability, implying a sort of social contract between the country and its citizens. Safe new roads, malls and cable TV play an important role, Kang said.

This part of the story isolates two important points for would-be investors in the new fund. As mentioned above, there are concerns about whether certain aspects of China are a bubble -- short-seller Jim Chanos has made a lot of headlines in the past couple of months by calling the real estate market in China a bubble.

If stock prices in the Chinese real estate industry drop more than the broader market does, it makes sense to expect that the EG Shares China Infrastructure ETF will have a rough go of things.

The heavy weighting in real estate, and mining for that matter, also addresses a subtler question, at least for this fund. Some have wondered whether infrastructure should be thought of as its own asset class like commodities or bonds. Ideally an asset class would offer some diversification benefit, such as having a low correlation to the stock market during a decline. It seems unlikely that real estate and mining stocks will zig when the stock market zags, making the fund part of an existing asset class, equities in particular, not a new asset class.

That does not mean that the EG Shares China Infrastructure ETF is poorly designed -- far from it. It provides access to what I have been saying is a very important theme in a country that is rapidly moving up in the global pecking order. As I have said, infrastructure is an area where money has to be spent -- and is going to be spent -- which creates a natural tailwind for the theme. This issue with real estate is a risk factor, to be sure, but all ETFs contain risks.

The decision about whether this fund will turn out to be the best proxy for infrastructure in China will boil down to the very simple question of whether real estate will enhance or hinder the fund's performances. Given that China seems to be in the midst of a pullback right now, it makes sense to see how this fund does versus some of its competitors.


QuoteBeyond Brazil, Part 1: Mexico ETF
Don Dion
02/25/10 - 06:00 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Mexico and Chile are the two Latin American economies that have moved beyond the emerging market stage of development (both are members of the OECD), and they are two of the larger single-country ETFs from the Latin America region.

Investors looking for ways to play the region while avoiding Brazil, which dominates broad regional funds, should first look to these two country ETFs.
Mexico

Mexico is home to over 111 million people and boasts the twelfth largest economy in the world. Mexico's markets have faced economic crises, most famously the peso's violent devaluation in 1994 and most recently the global financial crisis, but the country has rebounded before and will again. Currently, forecasters predict economic growth in the latter half of 2010.

Similar to economies of developed nations, Mexico's economy is dominated by its services and industrial sectors. Top services include banking, education and telecommunications. Mexico's main industries are cement and construction, food and beverages, and fossil fuel production.

The United States is the recipient of the lion's share of the country's exports. Major goods shipped abroad include manufactured goods, silver, oil, and agriculture. Thanks to the implementation of NAFTA in 1994, trade with the United States and Canada has expanded threefold. Aside from its North American neighbors, Mexico also has trade agreements with a number of South American nations, Europe and countries in Asia.

Mexico is also home to one of the world's wealthiest individuals, Carlos Slim. Ranked just below Warren Buffett, the businessman's wealth in 2009 was valued at $35 billion.

Launched in 1996, the iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Market Index Fund(EWW Quote) is currently the only pure play ETF available for investors looking for access to the U.S.' southern neighbor.

Sector exposure is in line with the economy. Telecommunications account for 35% of assests, followed by 23% in consumer staples, 14% in materials, 13% in consumer discretionary and 8% in industrials.

Although the fund is designed to track the broad Mexican market through an index consisting of 45 holdings, its performance is largely dependent on the success of a small number of these constituents. Carlos Slim's telecommunications firm, America Movil(AMX Quote), accounts for nearly a quarter of the fund's total portfolio. Other top holdings include Wal-Mart de Mexico(WMMVY Quote) and cement giant Cemex(CX Quote). Together, these top holdings make up 40% of the fund's index.

EWW's Performance has remained negative through the first part of 2010, but its growth in the most recent one-year period ending Feb. 23 has been impressive. In that time, the fund has managed to gain more than 100%.

Given the top-heavy nature of EWW, I would advise investors looking to hold this fund to keep exposure small. Also, it is essential that investors continually monitor the performance of the instrument and the holdings dominating its index. If any of these top weighted companies see a volatile move, its effect on EWW's performance will be significant.

QuoteBeyond Brazil, Part 2: Chile ETF
Don Dion
02/25/10 - 12:00 PM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Mexico and Chile are the two Latin American economies that have moved beyond the emerging-market stage of development, and they are two of the larger single-country ETFs from the Latin America region. Investors looking for ways to play the region while avoiding Brazil, which dominates broad regional funds, should first look to these two country ETFs.

In part 1 of this series, I examined the ETF that tracks Mexico's economy. Now I'll look at an ETF that gives investors exposure to Chile.

Chile, a country of nearly 17 million people, is probably best known as a major copper exporter and for having perhaps the best run economy in Latin America.

The country's military overthrew an increasingly Marxist government in the 1970s and was ruled by Augusto Pinochet until democracy was restored in 1990.

The period of military rule was not without its problems, but economic progress was a focus of reforms.

When democracy was restored, the government continued to build upon those reforms, ultimately leading to Chile's recent addition to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a group of nations that have advanced beyond the developing stage.

Chile's economy is reliant on copper, which accounts for about one-third of the government's revenue. Exports are roughly 40% of GDP, and the country has free trade agreements with the U.S., the European Union, China, India and South Korea, among others.

Despite the dependence on trade and resource exports, Chile has not seen the type of volatility associated with resource-dependent economies thanks to prudent fiscal management that banks the copper revenues during boom periods and spends them during the bust periods.

Investors can gain access this country's equity market via the iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index Fund(ECH Quote). It has an expense ratio of 0.65%, total assets of about $375 million and ample liquidity, with more than 150,000 shares traded per day in the latest three-month period.

Despite the Chilean economy's reliance on copper exports, the fund has little direct exposure to the metal. Although it has 21% of assets in the materials sector, almost all of that exposure comes from three top-10 holdings engaged in fertilizers, wood and paper, and iron ore.

Mining is an energy-intensive industry, however, and the largest sector exposure comes via utilities, at 29% of this ETF. Much of this exposure is through the second and third largest holdings in the fund: Enersis(ENI Quote), with 11% of assets; and Empresa Nacional de Electricidad(EOC Quote), with 10.2%.

Industrials make up another 20% of assets, with conglomerate Empresas Copec the No. 1 holding in ECH, at 13.6% of assets, and LAN Airlines(LFL Quote) (LFL), a top 10 holding, with 4.4% of assets.

Beyond the top three sectors, the next two each have more than 9% of assets: financials and consumer staples. Half of the financial exposure comes from Banco Santander(SAN Quote), while more than half of the consumer staples exposure is contained retailer Cencosud.

Overall, iShares MSCI Chile has 32 holdings, sufficient for diversification. The largest holding is less than 15% of assets, which keeps the fund from being over-reliant on a single holding, but the 72% invested in the top 10 holdings is a bit on the high side. Still, assets are diversified across sectors and, given the size and characteristics of Chile's economy, this is probably more diverse than most investors expect from a Chile ETF.

Chile is a country that has moved beyond the developing-market stage and is on its way to becoming a developed nation. The economy will remain dependent on copper prices, but less so as time goes on. Over the long term, this country and its equities should continue to be a more stable performer in the region.

Performance has also been strong in the recent past. Year to date in 2010, ECH has a positive return and is the second best performing country ETF in this region. 




Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 26, 2010, 02:31:24 AM
the heavy buying which started after the stocks were let to fall because of the various bad news, burned me bad. In 1.5 weeks, I raised my account's net value by almost ten percents, range-trading oil and gold futures through CFDs (never risking more than 1% of my account, as a rule of thumb I will more rigorously follow from now on). Then I thought these bad news would make the bearish downturn in John Deere which I was anticipating for a while, so I CFD-ed in with a big amount to "neutralize" the commission fee. Half of my profits are gone.  :cry:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 26, 2010, 03:02:24 AM
I've given up on predicting short term price movements. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on February 26, 2010, 03:17:32 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 26, 2010, 03:02:24 AM
I've given up on predicting short term price movements.

Yes, I think the weeny private investor is at a disadvantage in that area.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 02, 2010, 01:16:14 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 23, 2010, 03:50:51 PM
Almost all my fun account's funds are in cash, but with the tanking this morning on the consumer confidence news, I wanted to play a little bit. So I took on two small positions. Fifty shares each of SLB and WM. I bought them near today's bottom with the Dow down about 88-89. So far the results:



      SLB    

   50    <----#of shares

   60.9687    <----value (current)

   3,050.00    <----position value

   3,022.50    <----cost

   27.50    <----profit

   0.86    <----%gain/loss

   
   

      WM    

   50    

   32.6384    

   1,632.00

   1,639.97    

   -7.97         <----loss   

   -0.49    



It doesn't really want to push up past about -80. I'm not sure if I want to hold these, but hey, if I don't I'll make fifteen bucks.  :lol:

I do think Schlumberger is a good buy after the merger pushed it down a bit.



Edit: And now the dow is down 95 with an hour left.  <_<

My gains are holding though.

Well, my 50-50 test is over.
I never closed either of these positions, and now I'm at:

SLB: $95 profit

WM: $36 profit


If I sell right now, naturally, and minus trade fees. A decent short-term take on a trade that small, but I actually like both of those companies. I'd increase the positions on the next big down-day if I had any confidence in the market.

Should I dump it and wait for the next market plunge and try again with bigger stakes?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 02, 2010, 04:13:04 PM
A general note: reading stock market related articles, I am increasingly having deja vu: the general "why the fuck are the bulls leading when the economic data is shit" sentiment is exactly like a couple of months before all hell went loose during the whole recession thing.  :hmm:

I have kept playing with commodities with very mixed results. I still have to have my first day in the red with oil future deals, but the daily nice profit I make with those are only marginally more than what is needed to compensate for my bad bets in the other ones :P

In stocks, I CFDed into Schlumberger when it seemed like getting out of the downslide it got into after acquiring that other company, and seems to be working so far. Well, my stop on it now is to cover for the cost of the whole deal, and I hope to have it rise even more in the coming weeks.

I am also long on Google and will be keeping an eye on Microsoft to get in once today's dip is over. :)
Of course I am keeping a close eye on stop losses in case the bad data finally catches up to people and they start unloading.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 02, 2010, 04:18:11 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 02, 2010, 01:16:14 PM


Well, my 50-50 test is over.
I never closed either of these positions, and now I'm at:

SLB: $95 profit

WM: $36 profit


If I sell right now, naturally, and minus trade fees. A decent short-term take on a trade that small, but I actually like both of those companies. I'd increase the positions on the next big down-day if I had any confidence in the market.

Should I dump it and wait for the next market plunge and try again with bigger stakes?

Well I am very interested in SLB. Could close with a nice (for me) profit, about $130 from 100 shares (thats actually like 2.5% of my entire account's value so perhaps I should stay sane and take it happily), but barring a general pessimistic overtake of the market I fail to see why it should not keep going higher. And it should keep this good speed if optimism continues, no?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 02, 2010, 09:44:10 PM
I just have to get this off my chest.  When the hell will my wife learn that a computer will not stop her from doing stupid things?  She can get away with ordering her underlings around, because if shit happens, she can blame them for not bringing stuff to her attention.  Not a chance with a computer, my dear.  You want to commit suicide?  A computer will let you, and you can't blame it on "malicious compliance". 

Ok, there was this stock placement.  A company basically needs cash, and is going to issue new shares on a pro rata basis to existing shareholders.  In other words, all existing shareholders have to chip in $ to help rescue the company.  You have an option to pay or not - if you pay, you maintain your level of ownership and lose cash.  If you don't, your level of ownership will be diluted by the new shares.  Companies usually sweeten these deals by issuing the new shares at absurdly low prices.  Say, if the market price of a share is $40, they issue the new shares at $25 per share.  If you believe the company has a good future, it is usually a good idea to pay. 

So I paid, 98% of other shareholders also paid, and my wife also wanted to join.  Guess what happened?  She had multiple accounts in her bank, like 3.  When she did the stock placement, the online banking screen asked her where her shares are in a drop down menu.  (You gotta do the stock placement in the account where your existing shares are).  A stupid question, I know, but there you are. 

Account 349873498
Account 239875981
Account 348730934

Her shares are in 348730934.  Of course, in typical fashion, she didn't remember all those numbers, AND couldn't be arsed to find out.  So she just picked the default choice, account 349873498 (the first in the drop down menu), thinking that if she made a mistake, the computer would correct it for her, since the bank *should* know where her shares are.  If not, she would lodge a complaint.  Again, typical bossy thinking.

Predictably, the computer rejected her command because she did not have any existing shares in that account.  It was an invalid instruction.  When she complained, the bank explained that she herself pressed the ok button on an invalid choice, and there was nothing they could do.  So she didn't buy the new shares at a very cheap price.  Not because she didn't want to buy, but because she assumed that she could rely on someone else to do the work for her.  Her work. 

2 years later, the share price increased by 300%. 

She still think it is the bank's fault.  I disagree. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 02, 2010, 10:05:56 PM
And the reason I am so pissed off, is because this is not the first time something similar happens. 

Once she wanted to sell some shares.  The lot size of that company is 1,000.  Again, she didn't remember this, and couldn't be arsed to find out.  So she just picked a number, in that case 500, and gave online instructions to sell 500 shares twice.  She assumed that the computer would recognize her mistake if the lot size turned out to be 1,000.  (For those of you who don't know, if you sell shares not according to the lot size of the company, your trades will be done at a discount.  If you sell 1,000 shares at 50, you get 50,000.  But if you sell 500 shares of the same company, you don't get 25,000 - you get maybe 23,500.  The stock exchange does this to discourage people from trading odd number of shares). 

I now understand why some people need human brokers.  You wanna trade shares online?  You gotta do the work yourself. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 03, 2010, 12:47:50 AM
1) you should not let your wife handle computer matters
2) you are not as poor as you make us believe :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 03, 2010, 01:02:04 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 03, 2010, 12:47:50 AM
1) you should not let your wife handle computer matters
2) you are not as poor as you make us believe :P

1) We have separate finances.  I handle my own money, she handles hers.  I don't want her to interfere with my trading activities, and I don't control her investments.  Nevertheless, I am still pissed when our family wealth is needlessly diminished. 

2) Most people in HK own shares in individual companies, from the guys living in public housing estates to billionaires.  And the figures that I used in these posts are purely made up for illustration purpose. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 03, 2010, 04:09:22 AM
QuoteChinese Real Estate ETFs: Opportunity Knocks

03/02/10 - 02:23 PM EST
By Kevin Grewal, Editorial Director at www.SmartStops.net

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As China expects to lead the world in economic growth in 2010, some think the nation's real estate markets pose an opportunity and will likely see appreciation in the coming year.

When comparing price-to-book ratios vs. return on equity, a recent study indicated that Chinese real estate was the most undervalued when vs. other high-growth nations like India and Hong Kong. Additionally, some expert analysts state that the Chinese real estate sector has underperformed by nearly 30% when compared to the benchmark MSCI China Index.

On the negative side, Chinese property prices could face headwinds as a result of dampened growth. This dampened growth could potentially result from the most recent steps taken by the government, which has already raised bank reserve requirements to curb lending and tighten the credit markets.

Although real estate prices did inflate in 2009, they are expected to soften in the coming year and consumers are expected to start buying again. In fact, Credit Suisse is bullish on the sector, in particularly property developers and construction and contracting.

Some diverse ways to access the Chinese real estate sector include:

# Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate(TAO Quote), which solely focuses on Chinese real estate. TAO closed at $17.69 on Monday.
# Claymore/AlphaShares China All-Cap(YAO Quote), which gives exposure to Chinese lenders China Construction Bank and Bank of China as well as construction and contracting giant China Overseas Land & Investment. YAO closed at $24.66 on Monday.
# iShares FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Dev Asia Idx (IFAS Quote), which allocates more than 8% of its assets to Chinese real estate holdings. IFAS closed at $28.68 on Monday.

When focusing on international real estate markets, it is important to consider the inherent risk that they carry. To help mitigate these risks, it is important to implement an exit strategy, which triggers price points at which an upward trend could potentially be coming to an end and enable one to preserve equity.

According to the latest data at www.SmartStops.net, an upward trend in these ETFs could come to an end at the following price points: TAO at $16.49; YAO at $23.19; and IFAS at $28.34. These price points change on a daily basis as market conditions fluctuate; updated data can be found at www.SmartStops.net.

Written by Kevin Grewal in Laguna Niguel, Calif.


QuoteThe Best Developed Market ETF Plays
Don Dion
03/02/10 - 12:07 PM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As developed market ETFs continue to separate in performance, ETF investors should allocate assets to benefit from strength and avoid weakness.

Japan, Australia and Canada are sources of strength, while Europe and the United Kingdom are facing serious financial problems.

On Monday and Tuesday, the differences were clear. The British pound and the euro sank in Monday trading, highlighting the continued weakness across the Atlantic, while Australia's central bank raised interest rates to 4% today as the economy continues to recover, with unemployment at only 5.3%.

The divergent returns represent a continuation of current trends. Resource exporters Australia and Canada have recovered nicely from the financial crisis, while Europe and the U.K. seemed poised to stumble into another round of adversity. ETF returns have widened recently, and these trends could last for several months.

CurrencyShares Australian Dollar(FXA Quote) has gained 0.5% this year and the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar(FXC Quote) is up 0.8%. By contrast, the CurrencyShares Euro(FXE Quote) is down 5.3% and the CurrencyShares British Pound(FXB Quote) has declined 7.3%.

This currency divergence is also evident in the equity ETFs. iShares MSCI Australia(EWA Quote) and iShares MSCI Canada(EWC Quote) have returns just below and above 0%, respectively, while iShares MSCI EMU Index(EZU Quote) and iShares MSCI United Kingdom(EWU Quote) have suffered losses of 10% and 6%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Japan continues to quietly outperform in 2010. CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY Quote) is up 4.4% this year and iShares MSCI Japan(EWJ Quote) is up 3.1%, despite having Toyota(TM Quote) as its No. 1 holding.

As long as the Greece debt problems remain unresolved, the euro is likely to remain weak in the near term. Even if a bailout can be agreed upon (and Germany has yet to agree to one), it could mean a weaker euro in the long run, if other countries are bailed out.

The most direct way to play the weaker euro is with ProShares UltraShort Euro(EUO Quote), which offers two times the daily inverse of the euro versus the U.S. dollar. A more indirect way to play the euro weakness is with PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Bullish Index(UUP Quote).

The drawback of UUP is that it only has 57.6% inverse exposure to the euro. The 13.6% of the index in the Japanese yen has worked against it, but the greater weakness in the British pound, which accounts for 11.9% of the index, will benefit UUP.

The pound sank on Monday, with explanations for the slide in the pound ranging from the purchase of AIG's Asian life insurance business for $35.5 billion to upcoming elections and the fiscal deficit. Included in Prudential's (U.K.) offer for AIG is $25 billion in cash. It's possible the firm immediately hedged its position in the market.

Britain's budget deficit is nearly as much as Greece's, but the country does not face as dire a crisis yet because the pound can adjust to Britain's economic situation.

Nevertheless, investors expecting fiscal discipline from a new Conservative-party led government (an election is expected in May) are readjusting their forecasts because the Conservative's lead has been cut to just two points over the Labour party.

This suggests that the Conservatives could lose, or in the event of a close victory, they will have little ability to maneuver with a slim majority. If this has been the cause for the pound's slip in recent weeks, it could remain weak for several more.

-- Written by Don Dion in Williamstown, Mass.


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 04, 2010, 02:38:37 AM
QuoteCommodity ETFs Top Performance List
Kevin Baker
03/03/10 - 06:50 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Six of the 10 best-performing exchange traded products rode the resurgence in commodity prices in February. The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Cotton Subindex Total Return ETN(BAL Quote) spun its way to a return of 18% for the month.

The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Nickel Subindex Total Return ETN(JJN Quote) topped the four metals investments, returning 15% by tracking the spot value of nickel. Third-best was SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF(XME Quote), up 11% on holdings of mining shares such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold(FCX Quote), Newmont Mining(NEM Quote) and Alcoa(AA Quote).

Today's economy is not built on raw materials alone. Building most new products, from cell phones to baby dolls, involves embedding semiconductor chips. Chips, which must be ordered with sufficient lead time at the beginning of a new-product cycle, are an early indicator of better economic times to come.

Funds fully participating in this trend include the PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductors Portfolio(PSI Quote), up 11%; and the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF(XSD Quote), up 9.2%. Both funds hold Intel(INTC Quote), Texas Instruments(TXN Quote) and Micron Technology(MU Quote), although the SPDR is the more liquid fund to trade.

Improbably, with oil surging back over $80 a barrel, not only is a fund tracking oil in the top-10 performers for February, but so is an airline fund. The iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN(OIL Quote) gained 9.2%, while the Claymore/NYSE Arca Airline ETF(FAA Quote) ascended 11%.

For the best rated exchange-traded funds, check out our Top Rated ETFs page.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fcontent%2Fimage%2F58225.include&hash=7ca03e6d05afdf0db9e7b0af9666455c349be2e2)


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 06, 2010, 12:24:11 AM
QuoteETFs Slowly Displace Mutual Funds in 401(k)s
Joe Mont
03/05/10 - 07:46 AM EST

BOSTON (TheStreet) -- BlackRock(BLK), the largest seller of exchange traded funds, is helping to push more Americans toward ETFs instead of mutual funds in their 401(k) plans.

Americans held $3.9 trillion in employer-based defined-contribution retirement plans, of which $2.7 trillion was held in 401(k) plans as of Sept. 30, according to the Profit Sharing/401k Council of America. Mutual funds had $2 trillion of those assets, but ETFs are starting to chip away, as they have with everyday trading among institutional and individual investors.

BlackRock estimates that as much as $2 billion of its iShares funds are now held in 401(k) plans, accounting for half that market. "Within the 401(k) space in the next five years, it is conceivable that flows to ETFs could reach several billion dollars," says Darek Wojnar, head of product research and strategy at BlackRock's iShares, its ETF unit.

ETFs may not seem a good fit. Because you don't need to pay taxes on capital gains in retirement accounts, ETFs' inherent tax advantages are mitigated. Active investors may love the intra-day trading ability of the funds, but within 401(k) plans, that feature isn't desirable -- or even feasible.

The main selling points are low and transparent fees. According to BlackRock, the average expense ratio of an iShares ETF is 0.41% versus the average mutual fund's 1.50%, a difference that can result in tens of thousands of dollars over 30 to 40 years.

BlackRock isn't treading on new turf. ShareBuilder 401(k), a subsidiary of ING Direct(ING) that sells 401(k) plans to small businesses, has provided ETF-based vehicles for four years. Vanguard Group, the third-largest provider of ETFs, uses index mutual funds for its own 401(k) offerings, but has marketed ETFs to other plans for several years.

In 2007, WisdomTree Investments(WSDT) created a business unit designed to deliver ETFs to the 401(k) marketplace. In all, the company sells 52 funds.

Small businesses have been early adopters of ETFs in their retirement plans because of lower costs. That trend may continue until larger companies join the fray. When that happens, mutual funds' dominance may slip quickly.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on March 09, 2010, 12:03:55 AM
What do y'all think about investing in real estate generally, as opposed to stocks?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 09, 2010, 05:00:09 AM
Real estate is dead. Nothing moves. I would do it if it was a ten-year ownership plan or longer though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 09, 2010, 05:31:35 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on March 09, 2010, 12:03:55 AM
What do y'all think about investing in real estate generally, as opposed to stocks?

The problems with real estate investment are -

Very large capital needed, compared to stock;
Much more illiquid.  You can easily sell stock in an exchange; it is far more difficult to sell a house;
Much higher transaction costs - the commission for trading a house is much higher;
Increased risks to the investment.  Your stock holdings are pretty safe.  Your house can be burned down, can be illegally occupied by gangsters, can be flooded, etc.
With stocks, you just sit there and get dividend income.  With a house you can rent it out, but you risk the tenant not paying or playing legal games with you;
It is far easier to diversify with stocks; whereas a lot of people only have enough money for one investment property - all the eggs in one basket.

In fact, there are ways to invest in the real estate market without buying a house.  You can own shares in real estate developers; you can buy REITs, etc. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on March 09, 2010, 06:24:52 AM
What about the pros?  :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2010, 06:59:48 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on March 09, 2010, 06:24:52 AM
What about the pros?  :unsure:
There's a finite stock and people always need housing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 09, 2010, 07:02:59 AM
I know that if I had enough money, I would have bought some houses in the States during this whole metldown thing. In case of careful selection, it has to be a very good long term investment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 09, 2010, 07:05:15 AM
In other news, my slightly positive results are only thanks to my oil future calls. And stocks. I have been tanking on other commodities I have tried.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Malthus on March 09, 2010, 10:05:07 AM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on March 09, 2010, 06:24:52 AM
What about the pros?  :unsure:

For most people, the biggest real estate investment is one they live in. To my mind, that's a pro - you can't live inside a pile of stock certificates.

Also, this is an area of investment where a personal eye to an "up and comming" area can actually make a difference. Most people really know squat about the future potentials of various companies or commodities. It is easier for the average shlemiel to know about their own neighbourhood, which streets are "good" to live on and thus desireable, etc.

Downside is that most folks will not want to liquidate their own house if they need cash; often this is an extreme form of investment, one your kids will cash in on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 09, 2010, 10:26:35 AM
One way to get some exposure to RE with a more modest sum and retain liquidity is to purchase REITs.  There is a passive REIT index which trades as an ETF under VNQ.  Note that this is not really the same as direct RE investment, more like a hybrid kind of investment, but it is a lot more convenient than investing directly in housing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 09, 2010, 10:49:10 AM
Quote from: Malthus on March 09, 2010, 10:05:07 AM
For most people, the biggest real estate investment is one they live in. To my mind, that's a pro - you can't live inside a pile of stock certificates.
IMO, that's not really a valid difference.  Shelter is just a dividend of real estate, just like stocks have their dividends.  You use it up yourself or you can rent it out to others, it's an income stream just the same, and it's priced in.
QuoteDownside is that most folks will not want to liquidate their own house if they need cash; often this is an extreme form of investment, one your kids will cash in on.
And even if you want to liquidate, it's hardly simple or cost-less.  It's very illiquid, in other words.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Fireblade on March 09, 2010, 10:49:39 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 09, 2010, 07:02:59 AM
I know that if I had enough money, I would have bought some houses in the States during this whole metldown thing. In case of careful selection, it has to be a very good long term investment.

Unfortunately, your nest egg of a couple hundred thousand forints is only worth about $50 in REAL money. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Malthus on March 09, 2010, 11:08:19 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 09, 2010, 10:49:10 AM
IMO, that's not really a valid difference.  Shelter is just a dividend of real estate, just like stocks have their dividends.  You use it up yourself or you can rent it out to others, it's an income stream just the same, and it's priced in.

I dunno if the numbers work out on that. Renting to others comes with a whole host of management complications - it is hardly cost-free!

I dunno if you can find $500K in stocks which will, *without risk*, return sufficient amount in dividends to rent a house worth 500K (and appreciating), year after year.   

Rents in Toronto seem all over the map but a house worth $500K seems to rent for around $3000/month. That works out to around a 7% return, not counting capital appreciation. How many stocks *reliably* pay a 7% dividend? (I honestly don't know)

Of course I'm no economist so my math and knowledge of basic concepts may be screwy.

I'm not saying buying rental properties is a great investment, either, since as I said that 7% doesn't take into account a whole host of costs ... but if you live in the house some of those costs you'd have to pay anyway, if you (say) invested in stocks and rented a place with the dividends; some of those costs are unique to renting to other folks. 

QuoteAnd even if you want to liquidate, it's hardly simple or cost-less.  It's very illiquid, in other words.

Yup.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 09, 2010, 11:24:22 AM
Quote from: Malthus on March 09, 2010, 11:08:19 AM
I dunno if the numbers work out on that. Renting to others comes with a whole host of management complications - it is hardly cost-free!

I dunno if you can find $500K in stocks which will, *without risk*, return sufficient amount in dividends to rent a house worth 500K (and appreciating), year after year.   

Rents in Toronto seem all over the map but a house worth $500K seems to rent for around $3000/month. That works out to around a 7% return, not counting capital appreciation. How many stocks *reliably* pay a 7% dividend? (I honestly don't know)
The actual dividend should be the income, not the revenue.  That would be rent minus all of the various expenses and property taxes. 

Even then, I didn't mean to imply that houses and stocks are equivalent types of investment.  Houses are more divident-oriented, stocks are usually more appreciation-oriented.  The point was that the shelter that you get from your house is not a free thing, it's just a revenue stream priced in.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Malthus on March 09, 2010, 11:40:50 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 09, 2010, 11:24:22 AM
Quote from: Malthus on March 09, 2010, 11:08:19 AM
I dunno if the numbers work out on that. Renting to others comes with a whole host of management complications - it is hardly cost-free!

I dunno if you can find $500K in stocks which will, *without risk*, return sufficient amount in dividends to rent a house worth 500K (and appreciating), year after year.   

Rents in Toronto seem all over the map but a house worth $500K seems to rent for around $3000/month. That works out to around a 7% return, not counting capital appreciation. How many stocks *reliably* pay a 7% dividend? (I honestly don't know)
The actual dividend should be the income, not the revenue.  That would be rent minus all of the various expenses and property taxes. 

Even then, I didn't mean to imply that houses and stocks are equivalent types of investment.  Houses are more divident-oriented, stocks are usually more appreciation-oriented.  The point was that the shelter that you get from your house is not a free thing, it's just a revenue stream priced in.

Way I was looking at it is this: fit I invest in stocks, can I earn enough to pay for my shelter, same as if I invest in real estate? That is, can I earn enough to pay the rent, on-going? Presumably the value of the stocks would increase over time, but then, so will the rent. Will the increase on stocks be sufficient to cover this, ongoing?

I guess my point is this: I agree that they are very different sorts of investments, but this difference is IMO an advantage in some ways. Houses are as you say illiquid, but they are very "safe" if you do not want to sell; you can always just live in them. Once you have bought a house, if you don't want to sell of move you really could not care less if the real estate market tanks tomorrow; you will still have your house. If your stocks tank, you have only bits of paper fit to wipe your bum with. 

To many, the "investment" component is really just icing on the cake. After you are through living in the house (in some cases, after you are through living, period) you have a valuable asset to give to your kids. 



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 09, 2010, 11:54:32 AM
Quote from: Malthus on March 09, 2010, 11:40:50 AM
Way I was looking at it is this: fit I invest in stocks, can I earn enough to pay for my shelter, same as if I invest in real estate? That is, can I earn enough to pay the rent, on-going? Presumably the value of the stocks would increase over time, but then, so will the rent. Will the increase on stocks be sufficient to cover this, ongoing?
You can't buy as many stocks on the margin as you can a house, so that can be the advantage.  You won't be able to buy $500,000 in stocks on a $100,000 downpayment, and in any case it would be a highly dangerous thing to do.
QuoteI guess my point is this: I agree that they are very different sorts of investments, but this difference is IMO an advantage in some ways. Houses are as you say illiquid, but they are very "safe" if you do not want to sell; you can always just live in them. Once you have bought a house, if you don't want to sell of move you really could not care less if the real estate market tanks tomorrow; you will still have your house. If your stocks tank, you have only bits of paper fit to wipe your bum with. 
You're making a crucial, and potentially dangerous assumption, and that is that you will continue to have the income to service your debt.  Since houses are sold on a margin, you do indeed have a very real risk that at some point in the future you'll become unable to make payments.  Many people forget that they're going hugely in debt when buying a house, and leverage can always work both ways.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Malthus on March 09, 2010, 12:07:54 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 09, 2010, 11:54:32 AM
Quote from: Malthus on March 09, 2010, 11:40:50 AM
Way I was looking at it is this: fit I invest in stocks, can I earn enough to pay for my shelter, same as if I invest in real estate? That is, can I earn enough to pay the rent, on-going? Presumably the value of the stocks would increase over time, but then, so will the rent. Will the increase on stocks be sufficient to cover this, ongoing?
You can't buy as many stocks on the margin as you can a house, so that can be the advantage.  You won't be able to buy $500,000 in stocks on a $100,000 downpayment, and in any case it would be a highly dangerous thing to do.
QuoteI guess my point is this: I agree that they are very different sorts of investments, but this difference is IMO an advantage in some ways. Houses are as you say illiquid, but they are very "safe" if you do not want to sell; you can always just live in them. Once you have bought a house, if you don't want to sell of move you really could not care less if the real estate market tanks tomorrow; you will still have your house. If your stocks tank, you have only bits of paper fit to wipe your bum with. 
You're making a crucial, and potentially dangerous assumption, and that is that you will continue to have the income to service your debt.  Since houses are sold on a margin, you do indeed have a very real risk that at some point in the future you'll become unable to make payments.  Many people forget that they're going hugely in debt when buying a house, and leverage can always work both ways.

Yeah, but that risk is from a totally different source. For example, the stock market tanked significantly in the last recession (call that risk A) yet I didn't lose my job (risk B) and the market for real estate did not fall significantly in my city (risk C). Owning real estate rather than stocks proved to have an advantage there, even though it was somewhat leveraged (thank goodness, not much any more - I've been making extra mortgage payments and I'm almost done!  :D); risk A materialized but not risk B.

My point is not that reals estate is a better investment, merely that it has its advantages: owning your house diversifies your exposure to various risks. It can be a sensible part of an overall investment scheme, or at least, that's been my experience.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 11, 2010, 01:11:54 PM
What the fuck is wrong with people?!!
Citigroup is a huge fucking mess, with the government to unload 27% of the shares in the coming months, and they just keep buying and buying the stock, especially after the CEO sez "we will be grand". :ultra:
This is the same bullshit I saw in the news prior to the crash: economic data was pure horrible, then came Bernanke, said "all will be good" and the stock market soared.

Yes, of course I went short on Citigroup. Yes, I got MAJORLY pwned by the CEO speech.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 11, 2010, 03:38:33 PM
QuoteCitigroup's Stock Likely to Keep Climbing: Bove

Citigroup has turned itself around and investors in the stock, which has risen around 12 percent in the last 5 days, are likely to make important gains in the long term, Richard Bove, financial strategist at Rochdale Securities, told CNBC Wednesday.

The most important factor in the stock's rise over the past days was Citi CEO Vikram Pandit's testimony to Congress, where "he was just ebullient," Bove said.

Citigroup will be pricing a $2 billion preferred shares offering at $25 par value with a yield of 8.875 percent, traders told CNBC on Tuesday.

One trader said the offering was "multiple times oversubscribed."

Citigroup's balance sheet shows that the bank exceeds all the government's capital requirements, Bove said, adding that the bank has $192 billion in cash, more than 10 percent of its assets.

Pandit has separated businesses to keep and businesses to sell in the bank and this will increase the value of Citigroup, Bove explained.

"If one was able to separate out the business that they're going to sell at the moment ... the part that's going to survive has got a 65 cents to 70 cents earnings power, which I think is a $7 stock," he said.

"But you have to go through the sale of the government stock before, I think, it starts to move up even more seriously," Bove added.

The bank is likely to lose money in the first and probably the second quarter, he said, so it is a longer-term investment.

"If we go out two-three years... my view is that the dividend payout ratios in banks are going to go back up to 40 percent and if people were to buy these banks at the present time, they're looking at extraordinarily high yields based on where dividends could be, say, in 2013," Bove said.

QuoteCiticorp May Earn $20 Billion by End-2012: Report


Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit is set to forecast returns of 1.25 percent a year or more on the bank's main assets within a few years, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

Pandit, set to speak at a conference on Thursday, will not give a specific profit target for Citicorp, the FT reported.

Pandit is expected to focus the market's attention on the performance of the Citicorp unit, which had more than $1 billion of assets at the end of December, out of Citigroup's total $1.86 billion.

If Citicorp's assets grow by about 5 percent a year, as some executives expect, the unit could earn roughly $20 billion by the end of 2012, a big increase from current levels, the FT reported.

Citigroup's performance depends not only on Citicorp, where it houses its main assets, but also on Citi Holdings, which has businesses and assets it is looking to shed.

Analysts have struggled to predict Citi Holdings' performance, which depends on the quality of its assets and the global economy.

But in recent days, investors have become much more hopeful about Citigroup's prospects — the company's shares have risen 11 percent since Monday's close.

Shares of other hard-hit U.S. financial companies, including insurer American International Group , have also rallied.

The U.S. government, which owns more than a quarter of Citigroup's outstanding shares, is eligible to start selling portions of its stake in the middle of next week.

The government will sell its shares only if it can do so at a profit. Citigroup's shares closed at $3.96 on Wednesday. Taxpayers bought shares of the third-largest U.S. bank at $3.25 each. Citigroup spokesman Jon Diat was not immediately available for comment.


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 11, 2010, 03:45:34 PM
The second one's important part: CitiCORP. The rest of the company is in a much much worse state and will keep bogging the banking part down.

As for the first article, I could cite some which say "OMG sell!" :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 11, 2010, 06:42:38 PM
I'm not going anywhere near C. They haven't paid back TARP yet, right? Even so, you never know what regulatory atom bombs could fall from the sky without warning.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on March 11, 2010, 06:54:01 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on March 09, 2010, 06:24:52 AM
What about the pros?  :unsure:

I want to invest in real estate (and will someday), and think there are a lot of pros.

It's a tangible asset that will never hit zero value.  A company can go bankrupt and the stock becomes worthless.  A company can default on its bonds and the bond becomes worthless.  A mutual fund or investment company can go under, etc.  But real estate will always be worth something.

You can take a hand in increasing it's value.  You are managing your investment.  If I don't like how a stock is doing, there's nothing I can do about it.

You're not at the whim of the market and it's daily fluctuations.

It's an investment that generates a fairly stable revenue stream.

It's a necessity.  Even in a recession people need homes, businesses need facilities, etc. 

And they're not making any more of it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 11, 2010, 06:55:58 PM
Quote from: Barrister on March 11, 2010, 06:54:01 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on March 09, 2010, 06:24:52 AM
What about the pros?  :unsure:

I want to invest in real estate (and will someday), and think there are a lot of pros.

It's a tangible asset that will never hit zero value.  A company can go bankrupt and the stock becomes worthless.  A company can default on its bonds and the bond becomes worthless.  A mutual fund or investment company can go under, etc.  But real estate will always be worth something.

You can take a hand in increasing it's value.  You are managing your investment.  If I don't like how a stock is doing, there's nothing I can do about it.

You're not at the whim of the market and it's daily fluctuations.

It's an investment that generates a fairly stable revenue stream.

It's a necessity.  Even in a recession people need homes, businesses need facilities, etc. 

And they're not making any more of it.

:)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 11, 2010, 07:00:16 PM
Quote from: Barrister on March 11, 2010, 06:54:01 PM

You can take a hand in increasing it's value.  You are managing your investment.  If I don't like how a stock is doing, there's nothing I can do about it.



This means it's more work than just about any other investment too, and has a way of consuming your time. I'm thinking along the same lines you are, but I want to look into some of those property management companies that will handle the day to day stuff for you in exchange for, well, some kind of fee I guess. It could be a ripoff, but the idea sounds appealing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 11, 2010, 07:38:46 PM
Quote from: Barrister on March 11, 2010, 06:54:01 PM
It's a tangible asset that will never hit zero value.  A company can go bankrupt and the stock becomes worthless.  A company can default on its bonds and the bond becomes worthless.  A mutual fund or investment company can go under, etc.  But real estate will always be worth something.
The value of the asset may never hit zero without a major collapse of governance (e.g. Detroit), but your equity in it may get to zero, and much further down than that, since you usually buy real estate with a loan.  If you buy it with cash, then you're fine, but then your returns are going to be very crappy.  In the long run, the value of the real estate appreciates very little in real terms.
QuoteIt's a necessity.  Even in a recession people need homes, businesses need facilities, etc. 
Maybe, but not in the same quantities.  If the recession gets bad, people pack themselves more densely, such as with children staying longer with the parents instead of branching off on their own.
QuoteAnd they're not making any more of it.
They're not making any more of water either, but it doesn't mean that investing in water is a good idea.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on March 11, 2010, 07:58:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 11, 2010, 07:38:46 PM
The value of the asset may never hit zero without a major collapse of governance (e.g. Detroit), but your equity in it may get to zero, and much further down than that, since you usually buy real estate with a loan.  If you buy it with cash, then you're fine, but then your returns are going to be very crappy.  In the long run, the value of the real estate appreciates very little in real terms.

I'm not saying you should invest in any real estate.  Obviously you need to judge that the RE you are purchasing is at a fair value, and unlikely to fall.  You also want to keep your leverage to a reasonable amount.  UP here for a non-principle residence you'll need to put down 25% which seems quite fair amount of leverage to assume.

Quote from: DGuller on March 11, 2010, 07:38:46 PM
QuoteIt's a necessity.  Even in a recession people need homes, businesses need facilities, etc. 
Maybe, but not in the same quantities.  If the recession gets bad, people pack themselves more densely, such as with children staying longer with the parents instead of branching off on their own.

Not sure what you're saying here.  Every investment can be sensitive to a downturn.  But RE is impacted less than almost any other sector.  Not that it is immune, but it is impacted less.

Quote from: DGuller on March 11, 2010, 07:38:46 PM
QuoteAnd they're not making any more of it.
They're not making any more of water either, but it doesn't mean that investing in water is a good idea.

On the contrary - water falls from the sky every day.  As far as humans are concerned, it is being created.  Land is very different in that way.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 11, 2010, 08:09:04 PM
Quote from: Barrister on March 11, 2010, 07:58:42 PM
I'm not saying you should invest in any real estate.  Obviously you need to judge that the RE you are purchasing is at a fair value, and unlikely to fall.  You also want to keep your leverage to a reasonable amount.  UP here for a non-principle residence you'll need to put down 25% which seems quite fair amount of leverage to assume.
It's not unusual for real estate, but it's still a fairly high leverage ratio of 4.  It's far from impossible for real estate to fall that low, no matter where.
QuoteNot sure what you're saying here.  Every investment can be sensitive to a downturn.  But RE is impacted less than almost any other sector.  Not that it is immune, but it is impacted less.
I'm saying that just because people need shelter doesn't mean that demand for real estate won't go down.  I also find it a dubious proposition that real estate is less sensitive to economic downturns.  In locally depressed areas from which people are moving out in search of jobs elsewhere, it can be quite sensitive.
QuoteOn the contrary - water falls from the sky every day.  As far as humans are concerned, it is being created.  Land is very different in that way.
:rolleyes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 12, 2010, 02:19:32 AM
QuoteWhat Commodity ETF Investors Should Know
Michael Johnston, Senior Contributor
03/11/10 - 09:35 AM EST
By Michael Johnston, founder of ETF Database

It's difficult to put a finger on the exact cause of the recent surge in popularity of commodity investing. More than likely, the boom is attributable to a number of different factors. Correlation between international equity markets (and even between stocks and bonds) has surged in recent years, increasing both the importance and difficulty of adding noncorrelated assets to investor portfolios. Given the relatively weak correlation with other asset classes, commodities have found a home in many investors' portfolios.

Moreover, unprecedented injections of liquidity into the financial system have created anxiety over a coming uptick in inflation that could erode returns to stocks and fixed-income instruments. Commodities have historically served as an effective inflation hedge, and many are once again turning to natural resources to protect assets from a surge in the CPI.

Regardless of the cause, commodity investing is hot, and many investors have turned to ETFs as a way to gain commodity exposure. There are three primary ways to gain exposure to commodity prices (as well as two spinoffs) through exchange-traded products, and each can potentially offer a very unique risk and return profile:

1. Physically-Backed ETFsThe most efficient way to gain exposure to changes prices of natural resources is to actually buy and hold the underlying commodity. Portfolios utilizing this strategy will ensure a near perfect correlation with the spot price of the commodity, because the value of the underlying holdings will move in unison with market prices.

Unfortunately, the physical properties of many commodities make physical storage impractical or prohibitively expensive. The physically backed exposure approach only makes sense for commodities that 1) are nonperishable, 2) are easily stored, and 3) maintain high value-to-weight ratios.

As such, the universe of physically backed ETFs is essentially limited to precious metals funds that store bullion in secure vaults. Commodities available through physically backed ETFs include gold, silver, platinum and palladium.


2. Futures-Based Funds

While the physically backed ETF structure works well for precious metals, a similar approach obviously wouldn't work with the majority of commodities. A physically backed livestock ETF would be a potential disaster for obvious reasons, while the storage costs and logistical headaches associated with a fund storing barrels of oil or bushels of wheat would likely necessitate a double-digit expense ratio.

In order to provide exposure to prices of resources that don't lend themselves to physical storage, many ETFs invest in futures contracts written on the related asset. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a certain date for a predetermined price, so its value generally moves along with spot prices.

In order to avoid taking physical possession of the underlying commodities, these funds conduct a regular "roll" process, selling contracts nearing expiration and using the proceeds to purchase longer-dated futures contracts. As such, futures-based products are impacted by three factors: 1) changes in the spot price of the underlying commodity, 2) interest earned on uninvested cash, and 3) the "roll yield" incurred when near-month contracts are exchanged for longer-dated futures. If prices for future delivery are significantly higher or lower than the current price level, the third of these factors can contribute significantly to overall returns.

While the returns to futures-based commodity funds will generally exhibit a strong correlation with spot prices, the movements are often far from perfect. Perhaps the most extreme example is the United States Natural Gas Fund(UNG). In 2009, natural gas prices remained stable, but UNG (which implements a futures-based strategy) lost more than half of its value as a result of consistent contango in futures markets (see What's Wrong With UNG).

Funds utilizing a futures-based approach include UNG, the United States Oil Fund (USO) and PowerShares DB Commodity Fund(DBC).

2b. Futures-Based Commodity ETNs

Among exchange-traded commodity products relying on a futures-based strategy, there are some subtle yet extremely important nuances. A number of commodity funds are actually structured as exchange-traded notes (ETNs) that are linked to futures-based commodity benchmarks.

The UBS E-TRACS CMCI Food Total Return(FUD) is a good example. FUD is linked to the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Food Index, which measures the collateralized returns from a basket of 11 futures contracts from the agricultural and livestock sectors. FUD doesn't actually invest in these contracts directly, but is rather a debt security that pays returns based on the movement of a related benchmark.

Commodity ETNs have both potential advantages and drawbacks. Because they don't actually invest in futures contracts, ETNs will generally exhibit lower tracking error, and the management process may be more cost-efficient. But because ETNs are senior unsecured debt securities, they expose investors to the credit risk of the issuer. In the case of a bankruptcy, there are no underlying assets to be distributed to investors. Most ETN issuers maintain very high credit ratings, but the risk of default should never be completely written off.

Many of the commodity products offered by iPath and UBS are structured as ETNs.


3. Commodity-Intensive Equities

Frustrated with the impact of contango on certain exchange-traded commodity products, some investors have turned to equities of commodity-intensive companies as an alternative means of establishing exposure to natural resource prices. Because the profitability of hard-asset producers is often impacted significantly by the prevailing level of prices for the related commodities, a strong correlation generally exists between these assets.

However, investors should remember that the holdings of these ETFs are not commodities, but stocks, and as such will generally exhibit a higher correlation with equity markets than spot commodity prices (thereby potentially diminishing one of the primary advantages of investing in commodities).

There are a handful of ETFs offering both broad-based exposure to asset producers (e.g., HAP) as well as more targeted exposure to gold miners (GDX, PSAU), agribusiness companies (PAGG, MOO), timber stocks (CUT, WOOD), and steelmakers (SLX, PSTL). A complete list of the ETFs included in the Commodity Producers Equities ETFdb Category is available here.

3b. IndexIQ ARB Global Resources ETF(GRES)

This ETF employs a unique investment strategy to offer exposure to commodity products, and as such is worthy of its own subset of the commodity-intensive equities heading. GRES invests in global companies that operate in commodity-specific market segments, but also includes short exposure to the S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE Index, essentially isolating the return component generated through movements in commodity prices.

At the time of publication, Johnston had no positions in ETFs mentioned.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Malthus on March 12, 2010, 10:08:58 AM
Quote from: Barrister on March 11, 2010, 06:54:01 PM
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on March 09, 2010, 06:24:52 AM
What about the pros?  :unsure:

I want to invest in real estate (and will someday), and think there are a lot of pros.

It's a tangible asset that will never hit zero value.  A company can go bankrupt and the stock becomes worthless.  A company can default on its bonds and the bond becomes worthless.  A mutual fund or investment company can go under, etc.  But real estate will always be worth something.

You can take a hand in increasing it's value.  You are managing your investment.  If I don't like how a stock is doing, there's nothing I can do about it.

You're not at the whim of the market and it's daily fluctuations.

It's an investment that generates a fairly stable revenue stream.

It's a necessity.  Even in a recession people need homes, businesses need facilities, etc. 

And they're not making any more of it.

One downside I should mention is that, if you live in that real estate, there are lots of expenses associated with it that have to be paid all the time - upkeep can be a literal money pit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 13, 2010, 03:04:36 AM
                                                               
Examining ETFs: China Watch

http://www.thestreet.com/video/10701002/examining-etfs-china-watch.html?puc=_etf_html_pla1&cm_ven=EMAIL_etf_html&s=1#71525136001 (http://www.thestreet.com/video/10701002/examining-etfs-china-watch.html?puc=_etf_html_pla1&cm_ven=EMAIL_etf_html&s=1#71525136001)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 17, 2010, 12:15:30 PM
Has any of you folks checked out VMware recently? I mean as far as financial figures and such goes.

Because I am trying to find a reason to NOT choose this as my second non-margin stock purchase. Due to my work I am in a good position to see just how virtualization will overwhelm the way IT infrastructures are handled. Yes, a lot of it has already happened but it is just a start.
And I think it is not that dependend on economic growth, I mean, whatever your company is doing, after a certain (not too big size) you will have quite a dependancy on IT and either things go well and you will need more IT infrastructure, or they will go bad in which case you need to cut costs on the existing one and virtualization is the ready-made answer for it. And it looks like VMware is by far the best choice for that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2010, 01:01:16 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 17, 2010, 12:15:30 PM
Has any of you folks checked out VMware recently? I mean as far as financial figures and such goes.

Because I am trying to find a reason to NOT choose this as my second non-margin stock purchase. Due to my work I am in a good position to see just how virtualization will overwhelm the way IT infrastructures are handled. Yes, a lot of it has already happened but it is just a start.
And I think it is not that dependend on economic growth, I mean, whatever your company is doing, after a certain (not too big size) you will have quite a dependancy on IT and either things go well and you will need more IT infrastructure, or they will go bad in which case you need to cut costs on the existing one and virtualization is the ready-made answer for it. And it looks like VMware is by far the best choice for that.

P/E of 109, no dividends (not unusual for a tech company) and it's at its 52-wk high. However, everything you said about it is absolutely right. It has been up as high as $70 before, just not in the last year. I think the high P/E is due to the fact that their earnings dropped through the floor in the downturn. Hardly surprising with the crunch. Even the analysts who recommend sell are projecting the earnings to go back up. One thing I think is a mistake that analysts make about VMWare is that they look at it with too narrow a focus. They call it a software company. But it's a bit more than that.

IMO, the main vulnerability is exposure to M$FT's Hyper-V (which I have no personal experience with--all my stuff is running on VMWare ESX). If Hyper-V sucks, no problem. If Hyper-V is more expensive to license (likely), then VMW remains the gold standard. If M$FT does something to their server platform that introduces incompatibilities with ESX and other VMW platforms, that will be bad, but it can't happen for a few years at least. 2k8R2 and W7 work great on VMWare. I've also noticed the changes to the licensing structure for ESX 4 from 3.5 are likely to raise the revenue VMW can expect to bring in, not just from new datacenters and metal-to-virtual conversions, but also existing customers upgrading existing platforms.

So, basically I agree with you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 18, 2010, 03:00:53 AM
QuoteStocks Rally Again But "Zombie Market" Faces "Major Risks," Bleier Says
Posted Mar 17, 2010 02:11pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, XLF, SPY, QQQQ, FNM, FRE
Stocks were higher midday Wednesday, putting the Dow on track for a seventh-straight gain while the S&P 500 moved to its highest level in 17 months.

In what's become a familiar pattern, the rally is occurring on low volume and without any of the drama investors have become accustomed to in the past two years. That's good news but it's also a sign of what Scott Bleier, president of CreateCapital.com, calls a "zombie market," where the vast majority of trading volume is computer driven and occurs at the open and during the last 10 minutes of the session.

Bleier's theory -- which definitely has some "conspiracy" elements -- is that policymakers at the highest levels of government have come to the realization that "it's the capital market tail that wags the economy's dog."

While there's no way to prove the "plunge protection team" is in the market buying futures to make sure major averages stay above "critical" levels, what is true is the Federal Reserve has taken extraordinary measures to aid the financial markets.

By keeping rates at zero for an "extended period," the Fed has allowed the banks to repair their balance sheets by earning the spread between the fed funds rate (effectively zero) and the "risk-free" rate of return on 10-year Treasuries, which is hovering around 3%. This "free money" trade is a big reason why banks have been sitting on TARP funds, rather than lending them out.

But the Fed's comments about buying mortgage-backed securities are at least as important as the comments about rates, Bleier says. The Fed has pledged to purchase $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities. In effect, the Fed is allowing banks and brokers to park their "toxic" assets on the Fed's balance sheet and given the investment community cash equivalents in exchange. "They then turn that into investable dollars. They leverage it up and buy stocks, bonds and commodities," Bleier says.

While one of many factors, the Fed's MBS purchase program is the single-most important reason why the financial markets have risen so dramatically in the past year, Bleier suggests.

That being the case, the critical question is what happens if, as currently planned, the Fed winds down the program at the end of the month?

Along with raised earnings expectations, this "hand-off between a government-supported market and a market that can stand on its own two feet" is the "major risk" facing the bulls, Bleier says. "We have not see any technical signs to bail from this current rally [but] we have got our finger on the trigger."

Rest assured he is not alone in that pose, another reason the recent move higher is lacking volume and conviction.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 18, 2010, 08:42:00 AM
It does remain to be seen whether the government can exit from the MBS market without triggering another mini-crisis, or alternative an extended period of market weakness.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 18, 2010, 09:47:37 AM
Ford is at 14.33. :w00t:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 18, 2010, 09:58:52 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 18, 2010, 09:47:37 AM
Ford is at 14.33. :w00t:

When it was at 13.67 yesterday, I set an order to buy at 13.5  <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 18, 2010, 10:00:46 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 18, 2010, 09:58:52 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 18, 2010, 09:47:37 AM
Ford is at 14.33. :w00t:

When it was at 13.67 yesterday, I set an order to buy at 13.5  <_<

I got it at just over 2.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 18, 2010, 10:01:37 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 18, 2010, 10:00:46 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 18, 2010, 09:58:52 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 18, 2010, 09:47:37 AM
Ford is at 14.33. :w00t:

When it was at 13.67 yesterday, I set an order to buy at 13.5  <_<

I got it at just over 2.  :)

Cool :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 18, 2010, 10:06:52 AM
Economic calamity = opportunity.   :menace:

I still kick myself not exploiting the tech bubble bursting. :pinch:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 19, 2010, 05:55:22 PM
Well, I bailed from my couple of remaining long margins before today's downturn got into swing, one on breakeven, the other (Microsoft) with profit.

At the end of the week I decided this was not a general trend-turn and climbed back in on Sclumberger(sp?) and bought Ford.

But, I am short on Starbucks (stop drinking cofee, people) and this sun energy company thingie which saw some pretty heavy insider selloff this week. The latter, I kick myself for only daring half of my usual amount because it did fell 3%, while Starbucks yielded like less than 2% in two days.

So my basic plan is that I hope to see an upward move on Monday because I am more heavily invested on that part, but I think my shorts will probably be lacking any serious upmove even in that case, so I should have my ass somewhat covered.

While I was travelling to Spain my margin trades took a huge hit, a good lesson and remainder to not be so exposed. Managed to crawl back during the last few days but I am still slightly in the red after buying these stocks soon before close.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 19, 2010, 05:57:56 PM
I thought people like Tamas only existed as caricatures in Burton Malkiel's book.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 19, 2010, 06:00:32 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 19, 2010, 05:57:56 PM
I thought people like Tamas only existed as caricatures in Burton Malkiel's book.
Were you not yet in the Free World during the dotcom bubble?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 19, 2010, 06:09:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 19, 2010, 06:00:32 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 19, 2010, 05:57:56 PM
I thought people like Tamas only existed as caricatures in Burton Malkiel's book.
Were you not yet in the Free World during the dotcom bubble?
I was, but I never heard the technical analysis in action in all its glory.  It was mainly "buy dotcom, buy dotcom" that I heard. 

To my credit, I even managed to talk my dad out of investing into some get-rich-quick investment that my uncle was pushing, telling him that when people like my uncle start trying to make a quick buck by investing, you know the end is near.  It was the first and last time that my dad actually followed my recommendation on any financial matters.  My uncle, of course, got burned.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 19, 2010, 06:16:59 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg441.imageshack.us%2Fimg441%2F2732%2F51968079.gif&hash=807805e6905947aade045e9bdfe5f194f0ddf262)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 19, 2010, 06:17:27 PM
I am not some believer of technical analysis telling the future or anything like that. And I would not base long term investments on it.

I think it's use -beside gathering and displaying past info like volume of buying and selling- is in the fact that many people do use it and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Like often some moving averages serving as support/resistance.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 19, 2010, 06:19:49 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 19, 2010, 05:55:22 PM
So my basic plan is that I hope to see an upward move on Monday

I'm not optimistic for that. I wish I had closed out more positions before the market closed yesterday, but I got busy with other stuff and didn't get back to it until after the close.


Ed:  :lol:  Cramer thinks we're all gonna die if health care passes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 19, 2010, 06:22:43 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 19, 2010, 06:19:49 PM


Ed:  :lol:  Cramer thinks we're all gonna die if health care passes.

:lol:

I love Cramer. Only in small doses, and I never buy or sell because he says so. He's alright pointing out stocks to look at though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on March 19, 2010, 07:49:07 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2010, 01:01:16 PM
P/E of 109, no dividends (not unusual for a tech company) and it's at its 52-wk high. However, everything you said about it is absolutely right. It has been up as high as $70 before, just not in the last year. I think the high P/E is due to the fact that their earnings dropped through the floor in the downturn. Hardly surprising with the crunch. Even the analysts who recommend sell are projecting the earnings to go back up. One thing I think is a mistake that analysts make about VMWare is that they look at it with too narrow a focus. They call it a software company. But it's a bit more than that.

IMO, the main vulnerability is exposure to M$FT's Hyper-V (which I have no personal experience with--all my stuff is running on VMWare ESX). If Hyper-V sucks, no problem. If Hyper-V is more expensive to license (likely), then VMW remains the gold standard. If M$FT does something to their server platform that introduces incompatibilities with ESX and other VMW platforms, that will be bad, but it can't happen for a few years at least. 2k8R2 and W7 work great on VMWare. I've also noticed the changes to the licensing structure for ESX 4 from 3.5 are likely to raise the revenue VMW can expect to bring in, not just from new datacenters and metal-to-virtual conversions, but also existing customers upgrading existing platforms.

So, basically I agree with you.

You're discounting the threat of Xen, KVM, and VirtualBox.  The latter especially, as Oracle could do some interesting things with that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 19, 2010, 09:07:38 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 19, 2010, 06:19:49 PM
Ed:  :lol:  Cramer thinks we're all gonna die if health care passes.

No, he just said you might want some dividend stocks to offset the hit the market will take when healthcare passes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2010, 01:55:46 AM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on March 19, 2010, 07:49:07 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2010, 01:01:16 PM
P/E of 109, no dividends (not unusual for a tech company) and it's at its 52-wk high. However, everything you said about it is absolutely right. It has been up as high as $70 before, just not in the last year. I think the high P/E is due to the fact that their earnings dropped through the floor in the downturn. Hardly surprising with the crunch. Even the analysts who recommend sell are projecting the earnings to go back up. One thing I think is a mistake that analysts make about VMWare is that they look at it with too narrow a focus. They call it a software company. But it's a bit more than that.

IMO, the main vulnerability is exposure to M$FT's Hyper-V (which I have no personal experience with--all my stuff is running on VMWare ESX). If Hyper-V sucks, no problem. If Hyper-V is more expensive to license (likely), then VMW remains the gold standard. If M$FT does something to their server platform that introduces incompatibilities with ESX and other VMW platforms, that will be bad, but it can't happen for a few years at least. 2k8R2 and W7 work great on VMWare. I've also noticed the changes to the licensing structure for ESX 4 from 3.5 are likely to raise the revenue VMW can expect to bring in, not just from new datacenters and metal-to-virtual conversions, but also existing customers upgrading existing platforms.

So, basically I agree with you.

You're discounting the threat of Xen, KVM, and VirtualBox.  The latter especially, as Oracle could do some interesting things with that.

Hmm, yeah. I love VirtualBox on my desktop. I haven't used it on the enterprise level myself, but I understand it beats ESX in it's management interfaces/hypervisor (which does seem to be a VMWare weakness to me).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2010, 02:09:02 AM
Quote from: citizen k on March 19, 2010, 09:07:38 PM
No, he just said you might want some dividend stocks to offset the hit the market will take when healthcare passes.
Like AT&T at 6 & 3/4. :smarty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 20, 2010, 02:15:42 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2010, 02:09:02 AM
Quote from: citizen k on March 19, 2010, 09:07:38 PM
No, he just said you might want some dividend stocks to offset the hit the market will take when healthcare passes.
Like AT&T at 6 & 3/4. :smarty:

:yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 20, 2010, 05:33:34 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2010, 01:55:46 AM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on March 19, 2010, 07:49:07 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2010, 01:01:16 PM
P/E of 109, no dividends (not unusual for a tech company) and it's at its 52-wk high. However, everything you said about it is absolutely right. It has been up as high as $70 before, just not in the last year. I think the high P/E is due to the fact that their earnings dropped through the floor in the downturn. Hardly surprising with the crunch. Even the analysts who recommend sell are projecting the earnings to go back up. One thing I think is a mistake that analysts make about VMWare is that they look at it with too narrow a focus. They call it a software company. But it's a bit more than that.

IMO, the main vulnerability is exposure to M$FT's Hyper-V (which I have no personal experience with--all my stuff is running on VMWare ESX). If Hyper-V sucks, no problem. If Hyper-V is more expensive to license (likely), then VMW remains the gold standard. If M$FT does something to their server platform that introduces incompatibilities with ESX and other VMW platforms, that will be bad, but it can't happen for a few years at least. 2k8R2 and W7 work great on VMWare. I've also noticed the changes to the licensing structure for ESX 4 from 3.5 are likely to raise the revenue VMW can expect to bring in, not just from new datacenters and metal-to-virtual conversions, but also existing customers upgrading existing platforms.

So, basically I agree with you.

You're discounting the threat of Xen, KVM, and VirtualBox.  The latter especially, as Oracle could do some interesting things with that.

Hmm, yeah. I love VirtualBox on my desktop. I haven't used it on the enterprise level myself, but I understand it beats ESX in it's management interfaces/hypervisor (which does seem to be a VMWare weakness to me).

:hmm: VMWare can count on its existing lead in this case I guess. Especially if it manages to become a sort of standard for big service companies (boarding teams pushing for certified VMWare experts and such)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 21, 2010, 09:05:34 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 18, 2010, 09:47:37 AM
Ford is at 14.33. :w00t:
Guess who else owns some of that shit? :smoke:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 21, 2010, 09:41:47 AM
Quote from: Caliga on March 21, 2010, 09:05:34 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 18, 2010, 09:47:37 AM
Ford is at 14.33. :w00t:
Guess who else owns some of that shit? :smoke:

:)



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 11, 2011, 09:42:30 AM
Strangely, my portfolio opened strong today and isn't sinking despite all the bad Japan news.  Exception: my position in Sony. :bleeding:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 11, 2011, 11:47:45 AM
My portfolio is still nicely up (0.78%, with F up 2.42% and MAIN up 1.90%).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 11, 2011, 01:42:09 PM
My Total(TOT) stock is doing awesome.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 11, 2011, 07:03:58 PM
Total, like the Frog oil company?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 11, 2011, 07:04:54 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 11, 2011, 07:03:58 PM
Total, like the Frog oil company?

Yep.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 11, 2011, 07:15:43 PM
Fantastique.  ADRs or Paris Bourse shares?

Anyone ever owned shares in a company that was taken over?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 11, 2011, 07:18:20 PM
ADR.

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:TOT

That is about as adventurous I'll get with foreign stuff.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 11, 2011, 07:22:55 PM
I'm putting 100% of my 401 money into an international equity mutual fund.  Soon I will be the owner of: Luis Vitton.

Will also start buying Pearson (UK) ADRs through the employee stock purchase plan come July.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 11, 2011, 08:12:32 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 11, 2011, 07:15:43 PM
Anyone ever owned shares in a company that was taken over?
Yes, it's happened to me twice that I can recall.

I owned Wrigley stock when it was purchased in 2008 by Mars or Nestle or somebody.  The result was a forced buyout for me but at I think a $28/shr premium, so I didn't exactly mind very much. :cool:  It was weird because I had no idea the merger was planned, and one day I logged into my account to find a huge cash transaction had taken place... I then noticed that my Wrigley stock seemed to have disappeared altogether, and quickly put two and two together.

I also used to own stock in a company called Health Express USA, back when I was trying to focus on investing in the restaurant industry; this was a startup company trying to get a vegetarian fast food chain going down in Miami.  Well, it didn't work out and another company called Natural Nutrition bought them, and my stock was exchanged and then almost immediately there was a significant reverse split.  Then like a year later, that stock turned into something called 'CSI Business Finance' and I somehow ended up with a large number of nearly worthless shares.  About a year after that, the stock turned into AppTech, Inc., which is a 'company' that makes smartphone apps for the Latin American market. :wacko:

Anyway, I now own one and a half million shares of AppTech so I really hope Brazilians start buying that Daily Jesus Devotional app up like hotcakes.  If the stock price ever hits a buck, y'all can contact me in the Caymans. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 11, 2011, 08:16:10 PM
 :lmfao:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 11, 2011, 08:18:49 PM
 :lol: I view this 'investment' as a writeoff but you never know, someday it could hit a buck.  I could also win the Powerball. :showoff:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 11, 2011, 09:25:19 PM
 :lol:  How many shares outstanding in this regional dynamo, do you know?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 11, 2011, 09:54:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 11, 2011, 09:25:19 PM
:lol:  How many shares outstanding in this regional dynamo, do you know?


4.2 BILLION.   :lol:


Though it would be funny if Cal found out he had a controlling stake. APCX appears to be the symbol.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 12, 2011, 04:26:49 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 11, 2011, 07:15:43 PM
Fantastique.  ADRs or Paris Bourse shares?

Anyone ever owned shares in a company that was taken over?

Two in the past year; International Power and Northern Foods. The holding in Northern Foods got me an 85% gain in a single year, the one in International Power (a reverse takeover by GDF Suez) netted a gratifying 35% or so. Northern Foods is going private once the takeover is complete, I still retain a holding in International Power but only half of the original stake.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 12, 2011, 05:39:39 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 11, 2011, 09:54:07 PM
APCX appears to be the symbol.
Yep, that's right.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2011, 03:22:09 PM
Did you takeover target guys ever get a chance to vote on the takeover?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 12, 2011, 06:56:45 PM
Not me, my shares are bought and held in a nominee account, so I don't really own them  :hmm:

Which is a bit of a shame with the Marston's (a brewer and pub operator) shares; as they give discounts to shareholders which I would probably benefit from.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 12, 2011, 07:39:06 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2011, 03:22:09 PM
Did you takeover target guys ever get a chance to vote on the takeover?
That's a negative, chief.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:04:49 AM
I think this is the first and last time I'm going to short something. Wow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 11:22:42 AM
I don't do options. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:32:59 AM
I normally don't either. But with Japan gone to hell, I figured gold would drop with a predicted short term drop in demand for the metals and commodities.

So far, so good.

I'll likely move into Caterpillar and other construction type firms.

Disclaimer: This post does not constitute financial advice
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 15, 2011, 11:35:02 AM
I'm definitely looking for some bargains shortly. These drops are insane. I actually was thinking of increasing my position in CAT.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 11:36:29 AM
The move into CAT seems too obvious. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 15, 2011, 11:37:27 AM
Quote from: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 11:36:29 AM
The move into CAT seems too obvious. :hmm:
Agreed, especially considering the worsening Israeli-Palestinian situation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:39:40 AM
Quote from: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 11:36:29 AM
The move into CAT seems too obvious. :hmm:

Our buddy Cramer was into CAT yesterday. And Alcoa again. I think Alcoa gives him hookers and blow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:40:45 AM
Also, I wish I had an online survivalist store. Supposedly, people are going nuts buying iodine pills and shit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 11:44:45 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:39:40 AM
Our buddy Cramer was into CAT yesterday.
Ok, then I'm right.... avoid at all costs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:46:07 AM
Quote from: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 11:44:45 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:39:40 AM
Our buddy Cramer was into CAT yesterday.
Ok, then I'm right.... avoid at all costs.

Maybe. His general advice of moving into companies that would help with rebuilding was sound however.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 11:47:57 AM
Right, you just need to avoid specific tickers he is recommending.  He tends to have a small pool which he is obsessed with paid to endorse: Alcoa, like you mentioned, is a big one.  Also Annaly Capital Management, for example.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:49:54 AM
I love CAT no matter what. Their stuff squish the Rachael Corries good.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 15, 2011, 11:50:46 AM
Nobody got my Israel reference?  You people suck.  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 11:51:20 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:49:54 AM
I love CAT no matter what. Their stuff squish the Rachael Corries good.
:lmfao:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:51:28 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 15, 2011, 11:50:46 AM
Nobody got my Israel reference?  You people suck.  :mad:

We got it. St. Rachael Corrie of the pancake.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 11:51:46 AM
Quote from: DGuller on March 15, 2011, 11:50:46 AM
Nobody got my Israel reference?  You people suck.  :mad:
I didn't get it till Ed made the more obvious reference. :Embarrass:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:54:44 AM
I go right for the yuks. I leave the cerebral comedy for my cat.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 04:01:44 PM
I'm spent. Too much stress for options, even though the rewards have been quite good.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 15, 2011, 04:53:38 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 15, 2011, 11:35:02 AM
I'm definitely looking for some bargains shortly. These drops are insane. I actually was thinking of increasing my position in CAT.
I was giving half a thought to US nuke stock.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 05:58:02 PM
My brother owns ETR and has been gnashing his teeth about it since the earthquake.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 15, 2011, 06:10:59 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 15, 2011, 05:58:02 PM
My brother owns ETR and has been gnashing his teeth about it since the earthquake.


Looking at that chart I can see why. Maybe he should double down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 16, 2011, 03:21:40 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 11, 2011, 08:12:32 PM
Anyway, I now own one and a half million shares of AppTech so I really hope Brazilians start buying that Daily Jesus Devotional app up like hotcakes.  If the stock price ever hits a buck, y'all can contact me in the Caymans. :cool:
Woohoo! :w00t:

QuoteAppTech's Oronoco Sales Continue to Grow
11:44a ET March 16, 2011 (PR NewsWire)
AppTech Corp (Pink Sheets: APCX) is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary, Oronoco Telecom sales continue to grow and are ahead of projections. For the first fifteen days of March 2011, sales were approximately $75,000.

Daniel Miroli, President of Oronoco stated: "the sales figures for the first half of March actually beat our expectations. Comparing sales for the second week of March 2011 with the second week of February 2011, sales are up approximately 100%." Eric Ottens, AppTech's CEO added: "the fact that we have been able to beat our initial sales projections is a significant achievement. We will continue our aggressive and relentless campaign to grow Oronoco's revenue."

About AppTech Corp

AppTech Corp is developing mobile application market places serving emerging markets in Latin America, Brazil and the USA. AppTech is focused on multi-platform mobile apps designed to run on device operating systems such as Apple's iPhone and Google's Android. In addition, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Oronoco Telecom, AppTech is working on securing agreements with top communication companies in Central America, South America and The Caribbean.

Forward-Looking Statements

This release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and such forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. "Forward-looking statements" describe future expectations, plans, results, or strategies and are generally preceded by words such as "may," "future," "plan" or "planned," "will" or "should," "expected," "anticipates," "draft," "eventually" or "projected." You are cautioned that such statements are subject to a multitude of risks and uncertainties that could cause future circumstances, events, or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, including the risks that actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, and other risks identified in a company's annual report.

Contact:
Virmmac, LLC
810-333-1129
[email protected]

 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on March 16, 2011, 03:28:04 PM
For you penny stock investors, here is a 50 cent hot stock tip: "TVG's stock went from 5 cent to 10 in one day. You can double your money right now. Just get what you can afford."

Seems like a sure thing. (I make most of my investment decisions from rap star twitter feeds)

http://new.music.yahoo.com/blogs/thatsreallyweek/130325/jan-10-16-50-cent-uses-twitter-to-make-87-million-in-one-day/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2011, 12:28:44 PM
My position in WLL is up a decent amount after languishing for the last couple weeks. CAT up a little too. This is a good day. Maybe I should sell. You guys think this is a blip in an otherwise down trend, or were the big earthquake selloffs the blip in an otherwise up trend?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 17, 2011, 12:31:12 PM
IMO there will be a crash at some point this year, probably before end of Q2.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2011, 12:36:32 PM
Oh shit. I just noticed Cramer interviewed Whiting's CEO yesterday. Maybe this is a pump and dump. At least I was ahead of Cramer this time...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 17, 2011, 01:02:24 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2011, 12:28:44 PM
My position in WLL is up a decent amount after languishing for the last couple weeks. CAT up a little too. This is a good day. Maybe I should sell. You guys think this is a blip in an otherwise down trend, or were the big earthquake selloffs the blip in an otherwise up trend?

I tend to think "where else is there to put the money?"  :hmm:

Not impressed by the "safety" of government bonds. I dunno, maybe a lot of people feel the same way, the market has been stronger this entire 12-18 months than the pundits expected.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 17, 2011, 05:07:59 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2011, 12:28:44 PM
My position in WLL is up a decent amount after languishing for the last couple weeks. CAT up a little too. This is a good day. Maybe I should sell. You guys think this is a blip in an otherwise down trend, or were the big earthquake selloffs the blip in an otherwise up trend?
I think it's going to be a good year.  At some point people with jobs will realize the economy is actually in pretty good shape and start spending the money they're now sitting on.

The only thing I'm worried about is that when QE2 ends up higher bond yields might make stocks look less attractive.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 17, 2011, 05:40:29 PM
I've mostly withdrawn from everything in my speculation fund. I made enough the other day to last me quite a while to see how things shake out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2011, 05:51:59 PM
Oil will go higher now. Watch Ghaddafi light up some wells.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 18, 2011, 11:11:33 AM
 :cool: The CEO says this ain't a pump and dump, so it ain't a pump and dump. :smoke:

QuoteAppTech's CEO Discusses Recent Events
9:54a ET March 17, 2011 (PR NewsWire)
AppTech Corp (Pink Sheets: APCX) Eric Ottens, CEO of AppTech Corp wanted to share some of the Company's "Moving Forward" plans.

First let me state that we have submitted the documents to OTCMarkets-Pinksheets so that we can improve our designation to "Current Reporting".

I am hopeful that the new designation will be posted on the Pink Sheets in the next 3-5 business days. I would also like to address the issue of 'reverse splits and dilution'. There are no plans whatsoever for a reverse split for AppTech. Recently 2 billion shares were returned to treasury as a result of the rescission of a previous agreement. We have reissued some shares mostly for acquisitions but these are 144 shares that are restricted for one year from the date of issue. Our basic share structure has not changed since the beginning of the year. There is no basis for the concern regarding dilution.

Ottens continues: "AppTech is actively seeking 'partnerships' with other companies so as to be able to grow the company as quickly as possible. I am very much focused on the company's financial success for the benefit of all shareholders. From the time we begin negotiations for a prospective 'union' with another company until we conclude the negotiations, this time period can take several months. I have a goal to go 'full reporting' within a year. I wish I could do it sooner but the financial statements for 2009 cannot be audited since the predecessor company had inventory in its balance sheet and this inventory can no longer be valuated. No one associated with AppTech will be part of any so called pump and dump scheme. My number one objective is to grow AppTech in a methodical, disciplined manner for the benefit of all shareholders."

About AppTech Corp

AppTech Corp is developing mobile application market places serving emerging markets in Latin America, Brazil and the USA. AppTech is focused on multi-platform mobile apps designed to run on device operating systems such as Apple's iPhone and Google's Android. In addition, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Oronoco Telecom, AppTech is working on securing agreements with top communication companies in Central America, South America and The Caribbean.

Forward-Looking Statements

This release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and such forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. "Forward-looking statements" describe future expectations, plans, results, or strategies and are generally preceded by words such as "may," "future," "plan" or "planned," "will" or "should," "expected," "anticipates," "draft," "eventually" or "projected." You are cautioned that such statements are subject to a multitude of risks and uncertainties that could cause future circumstances, events, or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, including the risks that actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, and other risks identified in a company's annual report.

Contact:
Virmmac, LLC
810-333-1129
[email protected]

 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 28, 2011, 01:00:42 PM
My Whiting Petroleum position stop lossed out today for a 10% gain. Half my entire account was in that position. Mrs MIM gets a nice dinner tonight.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Count on March 28, 2011, 03:41:20 PM
I got some inheritance money about 10 years ago and invested 1,000 dollars in Intel. Now I'm collecting my 680 dollars.   ;)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 28, 2011, 04:08:50 PM
Quote from: Count on March 28, 2011, 03:41:20 PM
I got some inheritance money about 10 years ago and invested 1,000 dollars in Intel. Now I'm collecting my 680 dollars.   ;)

Bummer. Ten years ago the tech boom was already over. I assume you got some dividends. A little less than $200 if my math is right. If that $680 includes the dividends, then you got screwed by your broker fees.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 28, 2011, 04:42:39 PM
I wonder if you had put that $1000 into Apple back then what it would be worth today?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 28, 2011, 04:55:30 PM
Quote from: citizen k on March 28, 2011, 04:42:39 PM
I wonder if you had put that $1000 into Apple back then what it would be worth today?

In March of 2001, AAPL traded around $10, and they haven't paid dividends since the 90s. Current price is $350.44. In February of 2005 there was a 2:1 split. So he'd have 200 shares worth 350.44 today, or $70,088.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 28, 2011, 04:56:47 PM
Apple is the most overpriced stock of all time. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on March 28, 2011, 04:59:55 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 28, 2011, 04:56:47 PM
Apple is the most overpriced stock of all time. :)

With room to grow.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 28, 2011, 08:24:33 PM
Thinking about Toyota(TM), if it drops much below 80.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2011, 06:42:22 AM
I thought the max contribution to a Roth IRA was 2,500 a year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 29, 2011, 10:41:24 AM
I think it was back when it was created, but it's 5k nowadays.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 29, 2011, 01:10:51 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 28, 2011, 08:24:33 PM
Thinking about Toyota(TM), if it drops much below 80.

Auto makers are in big trouble right now because of the tsunami. Toyota might be a good trade if you can find the bottom or get near it. You might have to hold it for a while. Which would be fine if the dividends keep coming. I'm not sure how safe the dividend is atm. I have generally avoided trading in that industry for the most part, not even partying with Ford like a lot of you guys have.

But my general take on it right now is that the sell point for auto stocks was before the Japan disaster, and the time to buy them might be coming soon if you can figure out which ones will be adversely affected the least. Or if there is a big overreaction that pushes the Japanese stocks lower than they should go.

One thing that gnaws at me is that most of the automakers were in decline before the earthquake happened. Maybe just a general trend through February of the overall market though. If the parts shortages and stuff really does knock these guys down a lot, I may actually think about it too.


Edit: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9M8F0RO0.htm
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 29, 2011, 06:19:56 PM
A good article about why M$FT can't get traction. All the interesting bits about the internal politics in the company are spot-on. I won't be a buyer of MSFT stock (as a retail investor or as an employee stock purchase plan member) until at least one fiscal quarter after Ballmer is no longer the CEO.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/29/the-problem-with-microsoft/



"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share" - Steve Ballmer
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 29, 2011, 08:44:10 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 29, 2011, 01:10:51 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 28, 2011, 08:24:33 PM
Thinking about Toyota(TM), if it drops much below 80.

Auto makers are in big trouble right now because of the tsunami. Toyota might be a good trade if you can find the bottom or get near it. You might have to hold it for a while. Which would be fine if the dividends keep coming. I'm not sure how safe the dividend is atm. I have generally avoided trading in that industry for the most part, not even partying with Ford like a lot of you guys have.

But my general take on it right now is that the sell point for auto stocks was before the Japan disaster, and the time to buy them might be coming soon if you can figure out which ones will be adversely affected the least. Or if there is a big overreaction that pushes the Japanese stocks lower than they should go.

One thing that gnaws at me is that most of the automakers were in decline before the earthquake happened. Maybe just a general trend through February of the overall market though. If the parts shortages and stuff really does knock these guys down a lot, I may actually think about it too.


Edit: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9M8F0RO0.htm

Yeah, Ford is kinda holding on so far...but if it ducks under 14 (maybe even 14.50), I'll likely dump it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 30, 2011, 08:34:12 AM
HA.  I sold my Pfizer position one day before the end of eligibility for voting in the annual meeting.

Since I am no longer a shareholder, I opted to vote against the board's recommendation in every case.  Take THAT, Big Pharma! :menace:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 31, 2011, 12:37:49 PM
Since this week has been basically a sit and watch things crawl upward kinda week in the market, here's some news you can use:



Quote from: USA Today
Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon expects inflation
By Jayne O'Donnell, USA TODAY
U.S. consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations warned Wednesday.

The world's largest retailer is working with suppliers to minimize the effect of cost increases and believes its low-cost business model will position it better than its competitors.

Still, inflation is "going to be serious," Wal-Mart U.S. CEO Bill Simon said during a meeting with USA TODAY's editorial board. "We're seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate."


Along with steep increases in raw material costs, John Long, a retail strategist at Kurt Salmon, says labor costs in China and fuel costs for transportation are weighing heavily on retailers. He predicts prices will start increasing at all retailers in June.

"Every single retailer has and is paying more for the items they sell, and retailers will be passing some of these costs along," Long says. "Except for fuel costs, U.S. consumers haven't seen much in the way of inflation for almost a decade, so a broad-based increase in prices will be unprecedented in recent memory."

Consumer prices — or the consumer price index — rose 0.5% in February, the most since mid-2009, largely because of surging food and gasoline prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose a more modest 0.2%, though that still exceeded estimates.

The scenario hits Wal-Mart as it is trying to return to the low across-the-board prices it became famous for. Some prices rose as the company paid for costly store renovations.

"We're in a position to use scale to hold prices lower longer ... even in an inflationary environment," Simon says. "We will have the lowest prices in the market."

Major retailers such as Wal-Mart are the best positioned to mitigate some cost increases, Long says. Wal-Mart, for example, could have "access to any factory in any country around the globe" to mitigate the effect of inflation in the U.S., Long says.

Still, "it's certainly going to have an impact," Long says. "No retailer is going to be able to wish this new cost reality away. They're not going to be able to insulate the consumer 100%."
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2011-03-30-wal-mart-ceo-expects-inflation_N.htm

Been staying away from Wal-Mart, Costco, etc. If broad-based inflation does kick in, the reaction will almost certainly be a hit to the nicer retailers and a benefit to these guys.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 31, 2011, 04:15:11 PM
Quote
Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish U.S. trades on hold
12:19p ET March 31, 2011 (MarketWatch)
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. shares of Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks remained halted midday Thursday after the Irish government released results of bank stress tests. The New York Stock Exchange-traded stocks were halted about 45 minutes after the close of regular trading in Wednesday's after-hours session. Ireland's central bank said Thursday that four Irish banks, including Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland, will be required to raise a combined $34.1 billion in capital to meet new requirements.


Bank of Ireland dropped 35% today to 27 cents.


Edit: Irish gov agreed to recapitalize and stood down from the threat to make bondholders take a loss. Casino time. I entered an order to buy 15k shares of IRLBF then trigger a stop loss order of 5% once that one fires. Hopefully, there will be a spike on the news, but if not, I'll lose two hundred bucks or so. Either way, I'll likely not be hanging on this dog bank past the end of trading tomorrow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on March 31, 2011, 04:28:35 PM
Quote from: citizen k on March 28, 2011, 04:42:39 PM
I wonder if you had put that $1000 into Apple back then what it would be worth today?

I bought 20 shares of Apple back when it was ~$18.   :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 31, 2011, 04:37:14 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on March 31, 2011, 04:28:35 PM
Quote from: citizen k on March 28, 2011, 04:42:39 PM
I wonder if you had put that $1000 into Apple back then what it would be worth today?

I bought 20 shares of Apple back when it was ~$18.   :cool:

Do you still have it? That's a nice chunk of change today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2011, 05:59:34 PM
Or did you take your profits when it hit 20?  :D

My AT&T was jumping yesterday.  I think on some merger approval news.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 31, 2011, 06:22:28 PM
I also have AT&T. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 01, 2011, 11:44:26 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 31, 2011, 04:15:11 PM
Bank of Ireland dropped 35% today to 27 cents.


Edit: Irish gov agreed to recapitalize and stood down from the threat to make bondholders take a loss. Casino time. I entered an order to buy 15k shares of IRLBF then trigger a stop loss order of 5% once that one fires. Hopefully, there will be a spike on the news, but if not, I'll lose two hundred bucks or so. Either way, I'll likely not be hanging on this dog bank past the end of trading tomorrow.

Well, this trade never fired because the pop I was trying to catch happened before the market opened. BoI went from .27 to .46 while the NY market was still closed and my limit order was set at .30. If I'd placed the order on a market in a different time zone, I'd have doubled my money.  :P

Oh well. On the bright side--I don't own stock in any Irish banks. :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2011, 04:32:33 PM
Just plopped five grand in the IRA.  Planning on putting it all in SPY, but since the ex-margin date just passed there's no rush, so I'm going to wait for a dip before buying.

After that my plan is to wait for QE2 to end, interest rates to pick up, then buy corporate bonds.  Just got off the phone with a very sexy sounding lady on the ETrade bond help desk.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Maximus on April 01, 2011, 06:38:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2011, 04:32:33 PM
Just plopped five grand in the IRA.  Planning on putting it all in SPY, but since the ex-margin date just passed there's no rush, so I'm going to wait for a dip before buying.

After that my plan is to wait for QE2 to end, interest rates to pick up, then buy corporate bonds.  Just got off the phone with a very sexy sounding lady on the ETrade bond help desk.
If this post doesn't get you flagged by British intelligence I don't know what will.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 01, 2011, 09:58:12 PM
 :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on April 01, 2011, 10:56:10 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 31, 2011, 04:37:14 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on March 31, 2011, 04:28:35 PM
Quote from: citizen k on March 28, 2011, 04:42:39 PM
I wonder if you had put that $1000 into Apple back then what it would be worth today?

I bought 20 shares of Apple back when it was ~$18.   :cool:

Do you still have it? That's a nice chunk of change today.

:yes:
I do wish I had bought more.
Worse, I'm not sure when I should cash in and reinvest what I've got.


On an unrelated note: does anyone know anything about international trading on Fidelity (or elsewhere)? I'd love to buy stock in Samsung, but it's only traded on the Seoul, London and Luxembourg (http://www.samsung.com/us/aboutsamsung/ir/irfaqs/stockdividend/IR_StockDividend.html) stock exchanges.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 02, 2011, 04:02:50 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on April 01, 2011, 10:56:10 PM
:yes:
I do wish I had bought more.
Worse, I'm not sure when I should cash in and reinvest what I've got.


On an unrelated note: does anyone know anything about international trading on Fidelity (or elsewhere)? I'd love to buy stock in Samsung, but it's only traded on the Seoul, London and Luxembourg (http://www.samsung.com/us/aboutsamsung/ir/irfaqs/stockdividend/IR_StockDividend.html) stock exchanges.

Yeah you can.

http://personal.fidelity.com/accounts/services/overview.shtml.cvsr?refpr=brk39

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on April 02, 2011, 04:56:13 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 02, 2011, 04:02:50 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on April 01, 2011, 10:56:10 PM
:yes:
I do wish I had bought more.
Worse, I'm not sure when I should cash in and reinvest what I've got.


On an unrelated note: does anyone know anything about international trading on Fidelity (or elsewhere)? I'd love to buy stock in Samsung, but it's only traded on the Seoul, London and Luxembourg (http://www.samsung.com/us/aboutsamsung/ir/irfaqs/stockdividend/IR_StockDividend.html) stock exchanges.

Yeah you can.

http://personal.fidelity.com/accounts/services/overview.shtml.cvsr?refpr=brk39

Thanks! :)

QuoteWhich accounts are eligible?

Non-retirement brokerage accounts at the gold commission level, which requires either:

    * 120+ trades per year and $25,000+ in household assets, or
    * $1 million in household assets

Oh.  :Embarrass:
Well, maybe someday...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 04, 2011, 03:47:12 PM
From a post on Pragmatic Capitalism. The implication is that the price of crude telegraphs the market by ten years or so. Weird.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mcoscillator.com%2Fdata%2Fcharts%2Fweekly%2FCrude_1890-2011.gif&hash=88f656206d663c39900a1b463cfdbba35f390316)

I guess we're supposed to think the market will tank again around 2017.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 05, 2011, 03:09:44 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 17, 2011, 12:31:12 PM
IMO there will be a crash at some point this year, probably before end of Q2.

I still have a couple oil stocks I've been holding long-term. SLB, CVX and (sort of) KMP in particular. The two prevailing opinions are:


1-Oil is up due to demand and that is structural. As long as the economy doesn't tank, oil won't either. It will keep crawling up.

2-The increase in fuel costs will put the brakes on the economy, causing oil to go back down.

You seem to think #2 is right. It makes a ton of sense, but I'm still undecided. Here's my thinking. #2 happened to the US in 2007-2008. We all had cars already, but we started buying smaller more fuel-efficient ones. Our power plants shifted to cheaper NatGas. Now, we're all driving smaller cars and the plants are all converted. Oil going back up again. We already made our adjustments.

Then there's this:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704858404576133461380779324.html

Asia. China and India seem to have strong car sales even with these fuel costs. But these aren't sales of people buying more fuel-efficient cars as much as they are sales of people who never owned cars before buying some shitty Tata or something. In other words, fuel consumption going from zero to nonzero. So I'm not so sure the oil prices we're seeing now aren't structural, and catching up to the real demand. So maybe I'll wait for news of a drop in auto sales in China/India before expecting that drop everyone is expecting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2011, 11:59:18 AM
I am avoiding logging in to my accounts today.  :Embarrass:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 18, 2011, 12:10:50 PM
It's not a pretty sight.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on April 18, 2011, 12:12:51 PM
I'm glad I haven't actually invested my IRA money into anything yet.  :w00t:

BTW, since foreign earned income isn't taxable, I had no taxable income last year. Therefore I was not allowed to put money into a Roth IRA for 2010, and I have to pay a $150  fine.  :pinch:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2011, 12:30:59 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on April 18, 2011, 12:12:51 PM
I'm glad I haven't actually invested my IRA money into anything yet.  :w00t:


Today looks like a hell of an opportunity to do it then.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2011, 01:27:15 PM
Based on MiM's Crameresque ranting I expected a bloodbath but when I logged on I saw the S&P500 was down less than 2%.   That's not that bad.

Going to keep my IRA contribution in cash until it goes truly tits up in June.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2011, 01:28:39 PM
Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on April 18, 2011, 01:33:04 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2011, 01:28:39 PM
Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.

Infrastructure plays still seem worthwhile in the long term, no?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2011, 01:33:57 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2011, 01:28:39 PM
Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.

Never could figure out why you bought Caterpillar after the Jap nuke boo boo.  Did you expect them to cover the plants with dirt?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2011, 01:38:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2011, 01:33:57 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2011, 01:28:39 PM
Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.

Never could figure out why you bought Caterpillar after the Jap nuke boo boo.  Did you expect them to cover the plants with dirt?

I was just using the dip in the market to pick up more. I still plan to stay long. I wasn't trying to time it specifically on the nuke thing. Or the tsunami.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 19, 2011, 06:01:24 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2011, 01:38:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2011, 01:33:57 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2011, 01:28:39 PM
Yeah, I'm just cranky because I have a big Caterpillar position.

Never could figure out why you bought Caterpillar after the Jap nuke boo boo.  Did you expect them to cover the plants with dirt?

I was just using the dip in the market to pick up more. I still plan to stay long. I wasn't trying to time it specifically on the nuke thing. Or the tsunami.


I think I'm gong to try something I've never done before, now that I've got several positions of a decent size (like that one). Selling covered calls on my existing positions. Anybody ever tried it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 19, 2011, 07:02:23 PM
Nope, never have really gotten into that sort of thing.  I buy stocks, collect dividends (sometimes), and sell them.  That's it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 20, 2011, 10:23:53 AM
Irrational exuberance today  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 20, 2011, 10:39:29 AM
Well, this has wiped out all losses from Monday and then some.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 20, 2011, 12:28:12 PM
I'm pleased because there are some shares I want to sell on tuesday just before they go ex-dividend; so for once I'm very interested in the short-term fluctuations.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 21, 2011, 02:21:43 PM
Toni--I think you should get out of the PSLV before QE2 ends if you haven't already. IMO, silver doesn't have the demand support that oil has. You can always buy it back if QE2 ending doesn't knock the wind out of the commodities market (or better yet, if it does-then you buy it back lower). If I'm wrong, you lose nothing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 21, 2011, 05:03:46 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 05, 2011, 03:09:44 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 17, 2011, 12:31:12 PM
IMO there will be a crash at some point this year, probably before end of Q2.

I still have a couple oil stocks I've been holding long-term. SLB, CVX and (sort of) KMP in particular. The two prevailing opinions are:


1-Oil is up due to demand and that is structural. As long as the economy doesn't tank, oil won't either. It will keep crawling up.

2-The increase in fuel costs will put the brakes on the economy, causing oil to go back down.

You seem to think #2 is right. It makes a ton of sense, but I'm still undecided. Here's my thinking. #2 happened to the US in 2007-2008. We all had cars already, but we started buying smaller more fuel-efficient ones. Our power plants shifted to cheaper NatGas. Now, we're all driving smaller cars and the plants are all converted. Oil going back up again. We already made our adjustments.

Then there's this:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704858404576133461380779324.html

Asia. China and India seem to have strong car sales even with these fuel costs. But these aren't sales of people buying more fuel-efficient cars as much as they are sales of people who never owned cars before buying some shitty Tata or something. In other words, fuel consumption going from zero to nonzero. So I'm not so sure the oil prices we're seeing now aren't structural, and catching up to the real demand. So maybe I'll wait for news of a drop in auto sales in China/India before expecting that drop everyone is expecting.


Here's a follow-up:


Quote
China's Sinopec cuts off oil exports

by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) April 20, 2011

Chinese oil giant Sinopec has stopped exporting oil products to maintain domestic supplies amid disruption concerns caused by Middle East unrest and Japan's earthquake, a report said Wednesday.

The state-run Xinhua news agency did not say how long the suspension would last but it reported that the firm had said it also would take steps to step up output "to maintain domestic market supplies of refined oil products".

Sinopec would ensure supplies met the "basic needs" of the southern Chinese special regions of Hong Kong and Macao, but they also should expect an unspecified drop in supply, Xinhua quoted an unnamed company official as saying.

AFP was not immediately able to reach a Sinopec spokesman by phone for comment.

The report said Sinopec has raised output of refined oil products this year, with its first-quarter production reaching 31.55 million tonnes, an increase of 6.2 percent from the same period last year.

Sinopec last month said its 2010 net profit rose nearly 14 percent on higher oil prices and strong domestic demand for refined oil and chemical products.

It reported a net profit of 71.8 billion yuan ($11 billion).

The Beijing-based company attributed the result to China's rapid economic growth, robust oil demand and "the increase in the price of crude oil, oil products and petrochemical products."

It had said at the time that it would continue to "expand markets" in China and overseas this year, while intensifying its exploration efforts in the country's western regions.

Oil prices have surged on supply concerns as governments in the oil-rich Middle East and North Africa are hit by popular uprisings, while the Japan quake and resulting nuclear crisis led the country to seek other forms of energy other than atomic.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on April 21, 2011, 07:34:17 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 21, 2011, 02:21:43 PM
Toni--I think you should get out of the PSLV before QE2 ends if you haven't already. IMO, silver doesn't have the demand support that oil has. You can always buy it back if QE2 ending doesn't knock the wind out of the commodities market (or better yet, if it does-then you buy it back lower). If I'm wrong, you lose nothing.

Trying to be my broker now?  :D

Hah, I was thinking of bringing that up in this thread...I still have it (just 100 shares), and have been getting a bit of an inclination to sell now that I'm at/past the "doubled my money" point.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 07:33:20 AM
For some dumb reason Princesca is bugging the crap out of me to put $1,000 into a "safe" money market fund.  Do any of you guys hold one and, if so, which?

My cash sweep goes into an Ameritrade money market, but the yield on it is only 0.03%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 22, 2011, 08:58:55 AM
Quote from: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 07:33:20 AM
For some dumb reason Princesca is bugging the crap out of me to put $1,000 into a "safe" money market fund.  Do any of you guys hold one and, if so, which?

My cash sweep goes into an Ameritrade money market, but the yield on it is only 0.03%.

My parents have some money in a MM fund that pays 0.09% Might as well stuff it in the mattress.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 09:28:39 AM
$1,000  :huh:  :hmm: ?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 09:33:03 AM
It comes from some thing she read in a book by this guy named Dave Ramsey that advises you how to get debt-free as quickly as possible.  We don't have an inordinate amount of debt (mainly just the mortgage and associated HELOC) but for reasons unclear to me she's paranoid about paying it off as fast as possible. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 22, 2011, 09:39:02 AM
How about a money market account at your bank?  FDIC insured.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 22, 2011, 09:44:27 AM
Quote from: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 09:33:03 AM
It comes from some thing she read in a book by this guy named Dave Ramsey that advises you how to get debt-free as quickly as possible.  We don't have an inordinate amount of debt (mainly just the mortgage and associated HELOC) but for reasons unclear to me she's paranoid about paying it off as fast as possible. :hmm:
Pop financial gurus. :bleeding:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 22, 2011, 09:54:44 AM
Quote from: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 09:33:03 AM
It comes from some thing she read in a book by this guy named Dave Ramsey that advises you how to get debt-free as quickly as possible.  We don't have an inordinate amount of debt (mainly just the mortgage and associated HELOC) but for reasons unclear to me she's paranoid about paying it off as fast as possible. :hmm:

Actually, I sorta agree with that, as long as you don't deplete yourself getting debt free.

There is another storm a comin'. I can feel it in my bones.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 10:16:59 AM
Yes, being debt-free and owning a house is a desirable position; you can manage on almost nothing with that behind you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 22, 2011, 10:19:04 AM
Yeah, but you're losing the subsidy the government gives you to reward you for leveraging yourself.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 10:21:28 AM
I agree with the general principle but the $1K thing seems totally arbitrarily and annoys me.  We have much, more more than that already put away in IRAs for retirement, all if which is sitting in what I would consider to be extremely safe investments.  I don't understand why I need an additional $1,000 sitting in a fund that's going to be flat. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 10:21:51 AM
No subsidy in the UK anymore; but I take your point.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 22, 2011, 10:23:45 AM
Quote from: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 10:21:28 AM
I agree with the general principle but the $1K thing seems totally arbitrarily and annoys me.  We have much, more more than that already put away in IRAs for retirement, all if which is sitting in what I would consider to be extremely safe investments.  I don't understand why I need an additional $1,000 sitting in a fund that's going to be flat. :hmm:
Yeah, I don't get it either.  What's the point of it anyway?  I can understand holding something like $10,000 in money market account, as a short-term slush fund in case you lose your job.  What will $1,000 give you?  Gas money to the soup kitchen?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 10:24:17 AM
It's just $1000 then? Not even $1000 a month? I mean, you are quite well-off..................surely a $1000 is irrelevant?


But then, that is what you are saying  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 10:26:03 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 22, 2011, 10:23:45 AM
Yeah, I don't get it either.  What's the point of it anyway?  I can understand holding something like $10,000 in money market account, as a short-term slush fund in case you lose your job.  What will $1,000 give you?  Gas money to the soup kitchen?
Yeah... it's supposed to be an 'emergency fund'... but see I thought that's what my savings account was for.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 22, 2011, 10:26:25 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 10:21:51 AM
No subsidy in the UK anymore; but I take your point.
If there is one thing that I hope comes out of the budget crisis, it's the death of the mortgage interest deduction.  Unfortunately, not only does it make too much sense, but it also runs counter to the home-ownership fetish in America, and will hit too many voters directly in their pocketbooks, so this will never happen.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 10:26:36 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 10:24:17 AM
But then, that is what you are saying  :D
:yes:

That's why I'll probably just cave and do it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 22, 2011, 10:29:21 AM
Quote from: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 10:21:28 AM
I agree with the general principle but the $1K thing seems totally arbitrarily and annoys me.  We have much, more more than that already put away in IRAs for retirement, all if which is sitting in what I would consider to be extremely safe investments.  I don't understand why I need an additional $1,000 sitting in a fund that's going to be flat. :hmm:

Coffee cans buried in your yard.

The Ed Anger solution.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 10:30:01 AM
I think Dave Ramsey's target audience is poor people with compulsive borrowing/spending habits, which is why I don't understand her interest in him. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 10:30:53 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 22, 2011, 10:26:25 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 10:21:51 AM
No subsidy in the UK anymore; but I take your point.
If there is one thing that I hope comes out of the budget crisis, it's the death of the mortgage interest deduction.  Unfortunately, not only does it make too much sense, but it also runs counter to the home-ownership fetish in America, and will hit too many voters directly in their pocketbooks, so this will never happen.

We used to have it over here, but they phased it out during a recent property boom...........the boom making withdrawal of the subsidy fairly painless. Given the shortage of housing in the UK the subsidy merely led to house prices being bid up even further, I'm glad it's gone.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 22, 2011, 10:32:06 AM
Don't let her watch Suze Orman.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 10:34:05 AM
Quote from: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 10:30:01 AM
I think Dave Ramsey's target audience is poor people with compulsive borrowing/spending habits, which is why I don't understand her interest in him. :hmm:

Oh I know lots of people who should take up that advice. They are the sort of people who won't go to a restaurant with you because it's 5 days till payday. It's good advice for them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 22, 2011, 10:58:43 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 10:34:05 AM
Quote from: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 10:30:01 AM
I think Dave Ramsey's target audience is poor people with compulsive borrowing/spending habits, which is why I don't understand her interest in him. :hmm:

Oh I know lots of people who should take up that advice. They are the sort of people who won't go to a restaurant with you because it's 5 days till payday. It's good advice for them.
I have the same reaction when I see "Payday" reminders in my co-workers' calendars every 2 weeks.  How bad with finances do you have to be to live paycheck to paycheck on an actuary's salary?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 11:06:05 AM
Yeah, I have no idea what days I get paid but alot of the grunts here go around shouting "yeehaw IT'S PAYDAY" to remind me. :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: KRonn on April 22, 2011, 02:40:37 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 09:28:39 AM
$1,000  :huh:  :hmm: ?
Probably 1k in case the banks, financial system goes screwy for a while, like if the govt devalues the dollar or some other outlier type event. So you have some cash for a while, until things calm down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 22, 2011, 02:42:19 PM
Quote from: KRonn on April 22, 2011, 02:40:37 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 09:28:39 AM
$1,000  :huh:  :hmm: ?
Probably 1k in case the banks, financial system goes screwy for a while, like if the govt devalues the dollar or some other outlier type event. So you have some cash for a while, until things calm down.
If you want to insure against outlier events, $1000 in a money market account seems like a very sucky insurance policy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: KRonn on April 22, 2011, 02:43:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 22, 2011, 02:42:19 PM
Quote from: KRonn on April 22, 2011, 02:40:37 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 22, 2011, 09:28:39 AM
$1,000  :huh:  :hmm: ?
Probably 1k in case the banks, financial system goes screwy for a while, like if the govt devalues the dollar or some other outlier type event. So you have some cash for a while, until things calm down.
If you want to insure against outlier events, $1000 in a money market account seems like a very sucky insurance policy.
I thought this was about rationale for keeping 1k in cash at home; that's what I was referring to.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 22, 2011, 02:50:36 PM
Quote from: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 07:33:20 AM
For some dumb reason Princesca is bugging the crap out of me to put $1,000 into a "safe" money market fund.  Do any of you guys hold one and, if so, which?

My cash sweep goes into an Ameritrade money market, but the yield on it is only 0.03%.

If you want liquidity, an FDIC insured savings account is safer than money market funds and the yield differential is negligible on current conditions.

If you want a safe place to park some cash for the short term, a CD is probably a better option.

the main use for money market is exactly what you are using it for - a cash sweep in a securities account.

I don't get the rationale here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 22, 2011, 02:51:22 PM
LOCKBOX
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 23, 2011, 02:15:36 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 21, 2011, 07:34:17 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 21, 2011, 02:21:43 PM
Toni--I think you should get out of the PSLV before QE2 ends if you haven't already. IMO, silver doesn't have the demand support that oil has. You can always buy it back if QE2 ending doesn't knock the wind out of the commodities market (or better yet, if it does-then you buy it back lower). If I'm wrong, you lose nothing.

Trying to be my broker now?  :D

Hah, I was thinking of bringing that up in this thread...I still have it (just 100 shares), and have been getting a bit of an inclination to sell now that I'm at/past the "doubled my money" point.


Never take stock picks from some dude on the internet.   :P

But yeah, I think if we get QE3, it'll great for it, but QE2 ends in June, and that will make at least a temporary slump. Depends on how much bubble inflating Obi-Wan has a taste for. I think Obama will be pressuring him by then due to high gas prices. I made a nice profit on it too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Fate on April 23, 2011, 10:57:38 AM
Quote from: Caliga on April 22, 2011, 10:30:01 AM
I think Dave Ramsey's target audience is poor people with compulsive borrowing/spending habits, which is why I don't understand her interest in him. :hmm:

I don't doubt that's a big part of his audience, but if you listen to the call ins.. there are quite a lot middle to upper middle class white folks making 100k+, bragging they just paid off their mortgage and cars, or something along the lines like that. What bothers me is how much jesus crap he throws in there, but Ramsey's an entertaining guy to listen to.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 23, 2011, 11:10:02 AM
Well, it's probably that the poor religious people listen, but since they are all-around failures in life, would never be in a position to call in and celebrate their success. :smarty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 12:24:48 PM
So for the options thing...getting my feet wet with a small experiment.

Bought 700 shares Alcoa (AA) = -$11,839.64

Sold 7 options (May 17 calls) on AA = +$292.72


So right now, I have the stock. And the cash. And if the people who bought my options don't exercise them before they expire in a month, I keep it all and write another round of options next month. If they do, I sell them my stock at $17 for a small profit of about $70.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 25, 2011, 12:26:41 PM
Interesting... I've actually been eyeing Alcoa for a while myself.  One of the reasons I've hesitated is because Cramer has a tendency to push that stock, which automatically gives me pause.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 12:43:31 PM
Is 292 the strike on the options or how much you sold them for?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 12:46:06 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 12:43:31 PM
Is 292 the strike on the options or how much you sold them for?
The second one is the only logical answer, for a variety of reasons.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 12:52:41 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 12:46:06 PM
The second one is the only logical answer, for a variety of reasons.

Just a variety, or a cornucopia of reasons?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 12:58:46 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 12:52:41 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 12:46:06 PM
The second one is the only logical answer, for a variety of reasons.

Just a variety, or a cornucopia of reasons?
A shitload of reasons, how about that?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 01:05:47 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 12:58:46 PM
A shitload of reasons, how about that?

The fact that everyone is celebrating your failure to kill Jesus is no reason to get cranky.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 01:11:05 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 01:05:47 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 12:58:46 PM
A shitload of reasons, how about that?

The fact that everyone is celebrating your failure to kill Jesus is no reason to get cranky.
Why the fuck do you think I'm cranky?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:12:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 12:43:31 PM
Is 292 the strike on the options or how much you sold them for?

17 is the strike. 292 is the money I got for them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 01:17:19 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:12:43 PM
17 is the strike. 292 is the money I got for them.

:o Damn dude, it's 16.96 right now.  Was your plan to just flip it for the 292 dollars?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:25:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 01:17:19 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:12:43 PM
17 is the strike. 292 is the money I got for them.

:o Damn dude, it's 16.96 right now.  Was your plan to just flip it for the 292 dollars?

Yeah pretty much. Unless it doesn't get exercised. Then I can do it all over again. It has to go farther in the money than just breaking even for the option buyer to make money on it, don't forget. He has to make his three hundred bucks back. Plus, he might just be hedging.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 01:28:38 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:25:20 PM
Yeah pretty much. Unless it doesn't get exercised. Then I can do it all over again. It has to go farther in the money than just breaking even for the option buyer to make money on it, don't forget. He has to make his three hundred bucks back. Plus, he might just be hedging.

Sounds like a very crafty play.  But won't the counterparty excercise at 17.01, to minimize his loss?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 01:44:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 01:28:38 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:25:20 PM
Yeah pretty much. Unless it doesn't get exercised. Then I can do it all over again. It has to go farther in the money than just breaking even for the option buyer to make money on it, don't forget. He has to make his three hundred bucks back. Plus, he might just be hedging.

Sounds like a very crafty play.  But won't the counterparty excercise at 17.01, to minimize his loss?
It doesn't seem that crafty to me, it's just a basic option play, which is theoretically zero sum in the end (minus the transaction costs).  MiM just reshaped his returns by cashing in the upside potential of the stock, and leaving himself exposed to the downside movement.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 01:48:25 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 01:44:43 PM
It doesn't seem that crafty to me, it's just a basic option play, which is theoretically zero sum in the end (minus the transaction costs).  MiM just reshaped his returns by cashing in the upside potential of the stock, and leaving himself exposed to the downside movement.

Good explanation. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 01:53:57 PM
I'm an expert on this. :smarty:  I'm about to take my fourth investment exam.  Well, technically I'm taking the same exam for the fourth time, but still.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:58:25 PM
Yep. The buyer bought the rights to the profits beyond the strike price, essentially. I am holding the stock, which can go down in value. I'm fairly sure that doing this is only worthwhile for stocks that you believe will not move much in price. I wouldn't do it with Apple or anything like that. Too volatile.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:58:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 01:53:57 PM
I'm an expert on this. :smarty:  I'm about to take my fourth investment exam.  Well, technically I'm taking the same exam for the fourth time, but still.

4th time is the charm!  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 02:00:29 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:58:25 PM
Yep. The buyer bought the rights to the profits beyond the strike price, essentially. I am holding the stock, which can go down in value. I'm fairly sure that doing this is only worthwhile for stocks that you believe will not move much in price. I wouldn't do it with Apple or anything like that. Too volatile.

Except that presumably call options for Apple would cost more to reflect the volatility, jah?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 02:02:57 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:58:25 PM
Yep. The buyer bought the rights to the profits beyond the strike price, essentially. I am holding the stock, which can go down in value. I'm fairly sure that doing this is only worthwhile for stocks that you believe will not move much in price. I wouldn't do it with Apple or anything like that. Too volatile.
But volatility is priced in, the option costs more with higher volatility.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 02:31:10 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2011, 02:00:29 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 01:58:25 PM
Yep. The buyer bought the rights to the profits beyond the strike price, essentially. I am holding the stock, which can go down in value. I'm fairly sure that doing this is only worthwhile for stocks that you believe will not move much in price. I wouldn't do it with Apple or anything like that. Too volatile.

Except that presumably call options for Apple would cost more to reflect the volatility, jah?

Yes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 25, 2011, 04:44:33 PM
I'm pleased as punch that TOT is over 60.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on April 25, 2011, 05:19:34 PM


Jim Cramer just said the UK is the most investable country on Earth thanks to the budget cuts.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 05:55:03 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-noIrLMiiqlg%2FTbLot8q_S5I%2FAAAAAAAAA24%2F7Q4916eZqlk%2Fs640%2FScreen%2Bshot%2B2011-04-23%2Bat%2B10.55.44%2BAM.png&hash=3ad157e979093896b7d5f6a5eb952245f0712d28)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on April 25, 2011, 06:38:04 PM
So is that suggesting that silver is going to drop like a bitch in a couple years?  :P

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 07:25:12 PM
It bears noting that the 1980 event was a market manipulation of some sort. I can't remember exactly. Somebody cornered it or something.




Edit: found it - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 25, 2011, 07:28:31 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 07:25:12 PM
It bears noting that the 1980 event was a market manipulation of some sort. I can't remember exactly. Somebody cornered it or something.

Aye.  A quick summary I found with 15 secs of googling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

All I could take from the graph is that the price of silver and the USD are entirely unrelated. :mellow:

Edit: Damn you MIM!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 07:33:03 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 25, 2011, 07:28:31 PM
All I could take from the graph is that the price of silver and the USD are entirely unrelated. :mellow:

At least since 2007 it isn't the case. They traded pretty much as mirror images once the economy got choppy until QE2 in November--when silver broke away. To me, that suggests a trend break. People trading it on Quantitative Easing (as in fact I did myself you'll recall). I think that same thinking is going to make it drop once QE is over.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 07:36:43 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 25, 2011, 07:28:31 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday
The wonder of free and efficient markets. 

Trading silver now seems to me like timing an exit in a bubble.  You're not dealing with fundamentals anymore, you're dealing with what you think other people think about what other people think.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on April 25, 2011, 08:10:55 PM
Meh, either way, I took MiM's advice and sold off PSLV this morning at 22.90.  95%-ish percent profit is nothing to cry over.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 26, 2011, 12:01:19 PM
Today is a good day to own Ford. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: KRonn on April 26, 2011, 12:12:48 PM

Quote

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/26/news/companies/ford_1q_earnings_report/index.htm?hpt=T2
ford

Ford: Best first quarter since '98

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Ford Motor combined strong sales and improved pricing to roar past earnings forecasts and post its best first-quarter profit since 1998.

Ford earned $2.6 billion, or 61 cents a share, up 22% from a year earlier, the company said Tuesday. The earnings not only topped the consensus forecast of 50 cents a share, they were better than the most bullish estimate of any analyst surveyed by earning tracker Thomson Reuters.


  The last time Ford earned this much in the first quarter was in 1998, when the company sold part of its financial services unit. The past quarter's performance underlined the continued turnaround at the company, which has now posted seven straight quarters of profit after years of losses.

Shares of Ford (F, Fortune 500) climbed nearly 3% in morning trading to $15.96. Ford's stock has struggled since the company missed earnings forecasts with its fourth-quarter results, then was hit by investor worries about the impact of higher gas prices.

Revenue rose 18% to $33.1 billion, which also easily topped the most optimistic forecasts, as the number of vehicles Ford sold worldwide climbed 12%. In March, Ford's U.S. sales topped those of rival General Motors (GM) for the first time since 1998.


"Our team delivered a great quarter, with solid growth and improvements in all regions," said CEO Alan Mulally in the company's earnings statement.

Mulally told analysts and journalists that rising gas prices could slow economic growth both domestically and worldwide, but that Ford still anticipates stronger demand for cars the rest of the year.

That forecast was buttressed by the consumer confidence survey released Tuesday by the research organization The Conference Board, which found 4.7% of consumers intending to buy a new car in the next six months, despite lingering concerns about the economy. That is the highest intention-to-buy reading in that part of the survey since 1999.

Mulally said the gas price rise is causing a shift towards smaller, fuel-efficent vehicles, which typically sell at a lower profit margin that larger cars and trucks. But he said Ford's new lineup of small cars leaves it well positioned for this shift, and Ford is finding small car buyers willing to pay extra for more features on their cars.

While the number of vehicles sold was not a surprise, the revenue per car was stronger than analysts had expected, helping the company to exceed expectations. Improved pricing allowed it to post increased profits in all of its various regions worldwide.
Cool cars from the New York Auto Show

Ford did not give a specific earnings target for the rest of the year, although it said it expects to continue to post improved results. But it warned that lower profit from its Ford Credit unit, higher commodity prices, seasonal factors and the need for increased investments and costs related to its longer-term plans will make it difficult to match the first quarter's strong results later this year.

Still, Ford said it expects to continue to gain market share in both the U.S. and European markets.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 26, 2011, 12:37:49 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 25, 2011, 08:10:55 PM
Meh, either way, I took MiM's advice and sold off PSLV this morning at 22.90.  95%-ish percent profit is nothing to cry over.


And today it's down 5%. Nicely done.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 04, 2011, 08:54:38 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 26, 2011, 12:37:49 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on April 25, 2011, 08:10:55 PM
Meh, either way, I took MiM's advice and sold off PSLV this morning at 22.90.  95%-ish percent profit is nothing to cry over.


And today it's down 5%. Nicely done.

Damn, the timing of your advice to sell was uncanny.  I shall have you to buy you and the wife dinner if I pass by your way...which I may very well do...waffling between a Pacific Coast vs. Pacific Crest travel option down to California.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on May 04, 2011, 09:04:02 PM
Intel has been doing very well the past 3 weeks.  Does the crowd have any thoughts on it?  Been holding it for a couple of years now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on May 05, 2011, 04:03:10 AM
I've come across a fair amount of hype about their new generation of chips, eg. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-13283882

It certainly sounds like good profits are in the pipeline. It is probably already taken into account by the share price.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 06, 2011, 09:54:28 AM
Hello, Silver crash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on May 06, 2011, 10:26:25 AM
Is Cramer: peeing his pants.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 06, 2011, 12:02:43 PM
Wow, looks like a lot of margin calls are happening to commodities speculators. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 09, 2011, 05:40:35 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 04, 2011, 08:54:38 PM
Damn, the timing of your advice to sell was uncanny.  I shall have you to buy you and the wife dinner if I pass by your way...which I may very well do...waffling between a Pacific Coast vs. Pacific Crest travel option down to California.  :D

Honestly, I researched the hell out of it. So it was time well-spent.  I had a lot of skin in that one. It's always nice when a theory plays out like that. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 09, 2011, 05:43:18 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 06, 2011, 12:02:43 PM
Wow, looks like a lot of margin calls are happening to commodities speculators.

CME is hiking margin requirements on a bunch of commodities by 25%. Oil now too. People with too much leverage are getting chopped back.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 09, 2011, 06:09:57 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 09, 2011, 05:43:18 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 06, 2011, 12:02:43 PM
Wow, looks like a lot of margin calls are happening to commodities speculators.

CME is hiking margin requirements on a bunch of commodities by 25%. Oil now too. People with too much leverage are getting chopped back.
Good.   :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 19, 2011, 06:18:01 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 25, 2011, 12:24:48 PM
So for the options thing...getting my feet wet with a small experiment.

Bought 700 shares Alcoa (AA) = -$11,839.64

Sold 7 options (May 17 calls) on AA = +$292.72


So right now, I have the stock. And the cash. And if the people who bought my options don't exercise them before they expire in a month, I keep it all and write another round of options next month. If they do, I sell them my stock at $17 for a small profit of about $70.


These are about to expire, so let's see.

The cost of the May 21 call right now is $0.03. So I have pocketed safely 36.75 per call, or $257.25. (Original call price $0.3975 when I sold them.)

AA is currently selling at $16.64, and I bought my shares at $16.94. So the value of the shares has declined by $210. It has been fluctuating just north and south of 17 per share all month, which suggests it is pinning to the strike price of 17, (the strike with the most trading volume on it). The highest the stock has been in May is right around the price the buyer of the 17 calls would need it to be to make any money off his calls (about 17.65).

The next leg for June 18 calls at a strike of $17 is currently at $.44. Or just slightly more than the one I am about to complete. So I can carry this over and write June calls at 17 and get another three hundred bucks or so. Or, I can dip into the money a little bit and write my calls at a $16 strike. Those are currently going for $.99. That would be about $700 worth of time premium I would pocket Monday instead of $300. I would be starting out the new month right about at the call buyer's break-even point though. And if exercised at 16 I would lose a little less than a buck a share on the transaction, almost nullifying the time premium money. That's where the downside exposure I am taking on comes into play. Now, we just came off a couple big down days in the market, so I think it makes more sense to go with the 17s again. Also, the biggest trading volume on the June calls is actually on the 18 strike. See the volume on the right end:



   
AA Jun 18 2011    30 Days to Expiration
   

   14.0 Call       2.70       2.74       2.94       0.18       3       372    
   15.0 Call       1.79       1.81       1.84       0.01       218       1,247    
   16.0 Call       0.99       1.02       0.99       -0.08       828       3,246    
   17.0 Call       0.44       0.46       0.45       -0.04       3,430       9,499    
   18.0 Call       0.17       0.19       0.17       -0.05       2,320       39,492    
   19.0 Call       0.06       0.08       0.08       -0.01       322       17,398


I would make about $120 off the 18 strike on 7 calls. (Or $1890 on 7 $14 calls for 2.70. Might sound like a good idea, but I would lose two grand on selling that stock at $14. That's risky.)

Another thing about the volume. For people who don't ever trade options or want to--knowing the option volumes is good for figuring out where other traders are expecting the stock to go. The consensus on Alcoa for June is that it will be trading higher by this time next month. A big majority are looking for $17 or higher. Here are the puts:


   

   14.0 Put       0.03       0.05       0.05       -0.01       1       472    
   15.0 Put       0.11       0.13       0.13       0.00       63       6,499    
   16.0 Put       0.33       0.34       0.35       -0.02       4,037       34,323    
   17.0 Put       0.77       0.79       0.78       -0.04       6,591       41,206    
   18.0 Put       1.48       1.52       1.55       0.03       14,698       6,859    
   19.0 Put       2.38       2.48       2.39       -0.02       150       4,351    

A little more spread out, but again more traders betting on a strike price above the current price of between 16 and 17. The puts are mostly around the current price, so I think they are mostly hedges. In other words, the calls are betting it will go up, and the puts are betting it will stay the same. So, it probably doesn't make sense for me to trade thinking AA will drop very much.

I'll write my next round Monday at either 17 or 18, depending on what happens between now and then.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 19, 2011, 06:32:28 PM
How would knowing the volume tell you much about traders' expectations?  For every person long an $18 call, there is someone short an $18 call.  Their expectations would seem to cancel out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 19, 2011, 06:43:17 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 19, 2011, 06:32:28 PM
How would knowing the volume tell you much about traders' expectations?  For every person long an $18 call, there is someone short an $18 call.  Their expectations would seem to cancel out.

The prices they are picking, whether seller or buyer doesn't matter. It's a guess on which direction the stock will go either way. If you think the stock is going down a point, you're not going to sell an option guaranteed to lose money if you're right. I'm selling an $18 call and you're buying an $18 call. I'm betting it won't go much above 18 and you're betting it will go above 18. Which one of us thinks in that situation it'll go down? Neither.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on May 19, 2011, 06:45:50 PM
Quote from: citizen k on April 25, 2011, 05:19:34 PM


Jim Cramer just said the UK is the most investable country on Earth thanks to the budget cuts.

I'd be interested to know where he gets his smoke from.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 19, 2011, 07:14:23 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 19, 2011, 06:43:17 PM
I'm selling an $18 call and you're buying an $18 call. I'm betting it won't go much above 18 and you're betting it will go above 18. Which one of us thinks in that situation it'll go down? Neither.
I don't see how that follows.  If you're selling an $18 call, you don't think that the stock with go much above $18.  So far so good.  Why must you think that it wouldn't fall, though?  If I think that the price would be $14, I'd certainly be willing to sell $18 calls as well, if some people out there want to buy them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 19, 2011, 07:56:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 19, 2011, 07:14:23 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 19, 2011, 06:43:17 PM
I'm selling an $18 call and you're buying an $18 call. I'm betting it won't go much above 18 and you're betting it will go above 18. Which one of us thinks in that situation it'll go down? Neither.
I don't see how that follows.  If you're selling an $18 call, you don't think that the stock with go much above $18.  So far so good.  Why must you think that it wouldn't fall, though?  If I think that the price would be $14, I'd certainly be willing to sell $18 calls as well, if some people out there want to buy them.


Because if it's going to fall that far, I would just sell the stock. I have to hold on to it as long as I have a contract out on it. I don't want it to go down more than the amount of money I get for selling the option contract over the period of time I have it open or I lose money overall. That's the downside risk you mentioned before.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 19, 2011, 08:18:59 PM
Do you actually need to own the stock to sell calls on it?  There are other ways to limit your potential losses should the stock price go up while you're short a call.  You can just buy a call for a higher strike price, to cover the possibility of the stock price shooting into stratosphere.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 19, 2011, 08:31:02 PM
I could sell the call naked, yes. That's considered risky. Buying a call at a higher strike could work just as well as a hedge I suppose. Maybe a lot of the guys writing contracts at 17 are the same ones buying the 19 calls? Heh.

You have a mind for risk mitigation. I wonder why...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on May 23, 2011, 09:23:28 AM
My daily update email from Ameritrade made me wince. :yuk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 30, 2011, 08:09:36 PM
I was a little surprised to find that the 15th largest stock in the S&P 500 is Bershire Hathaway.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 30, 2011, 09:04:49 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 25, 2011, 07:36:43 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 25, 2011, 07:28:31 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday
The wonder of free and efficient markets. 

Trading silver now seems to me like timing an exit in a bubble.  You're not dealing with fundamentals anymore, you're dealing with what you think other people think about what other people think.

Do precious metals have fundamentals? (aside from what their industrial value would be)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 07, 2011, 04:07:05 PM
Just signed up for my employee stock purchase plan.  Monthly (biweekly??) payroll deductions pre-tax, used to purchase Pearson ADRs at a 15% discount of the lower of the market price on July 1 or on December 31.

So I would really appreciate it if y'all would subscribe to the Financial Times and buy a lot of Penguin books.  But do it after July 1.   :)

Anyone else in a stock purchase plan?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 07, 2011, 05:25:19 PM
My wife has a decent ESPP at Microsoft, and we plan to begin participating in it once Steve Ballmer steps down as CEO.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 07, 2011, 06:46:32 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 07, 2011, 05:25:19 PM
My wife has a decent ESPP at Microsoft, and we plan to begin participating in it once Steve Ballmer steps down as CEO.

That makes no sense.  If you think MS is undervalued and underperforming because of its CEO, now's the time to buy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 07, 2011, 07:06:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 07, 2011, 06:46:32 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 07, 2011, 05:25:19 PM
My wife has a decent ESPP at Microsoft, and we plan to begin participating in it once Steve Ballmer steps down as CEO.

That makes no sense.  If you think MS is undervalued and underperforming because of its CEO, now's the time to buy.

Ah, but I don't want to tie up my capital in a dog stock until it's just getting ready to go up. I shall wait put my money in profitable things in the meantime.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 07, 2011, 07:09:06 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 07, 2011, 07:06:29 PM
Ah, but I don't want to tie up my capital in a dog stock until it's just getting ready to go up. I shall wait put my money in profitable things in the meantime.

That argument makes a lot more sense from a dashing Captain Day Trader perspective than from a mild-mannered monthly contribution worker ant perspective.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on June 07, 2011, 07:47:25 PM
We have a plan--MIM, don't you get a 15% discount? That is a guaranteed gain you won't get elsewhere. Also, a lot of plans have an option value built in (you can buy at the lower price of multiple dates).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on June 07, 2011, 07:49:06 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 07, 2011, 05:25:19 PM
Steve Ballmer steps down as CEO.
:cool:

I told my brother not to buy MSFT till Ballmer left, and he didn't listen.  He wishes now he did, though. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 14, 2011, 01:12:36 PM
My options experiment is nearing the end of the second month. The June calls expire on the 18th (this Sunday). I sold my June AA calls at .54 for a total take of 378 in time premiums. AA is worth..15.40 right now. I bought at just about 17, so I'm down 1200 in value there. I've made a little over 600 in time premiums over the two months while losing 1200 in stock value. I also received a $72 dividend payment on the AA stock on 5/25.


So, I'm down 525 or so. I suppose it could be worse. I could be down the whole 1200 for this shitty month.  :P

Today's looking up, at least.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on June 14, 2011, 01:20:57 PM
I bought Vodafone stock last week.

ATTENTION BOARD EUROTRASH: Buy more Vodafone products PLZ. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 14, 2011, 01:49:52 PM
I bought a little GLD today. I may ease back into PSLV again if there is a significant dip in it soon. This is options expiration week, so we should know a bit better in a couple days how this post-silver-crash will shake out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on June 16, 2011, 03:04:46 PM
I'm getting assraped by holding Ford right now. :bleeding:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 16, 2011, 03:54:47 PM
Maybe Brazilian religious iPhone apps or whatever it was will explode soon.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 16, 2011, 06:16:17 PM
Damn, I hope none of you are holding RIMM.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on June 16, 2011, 07:04:18 PM
I've avoided RIM for a while now.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on June 16, 2011, 07:55:48 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 16, 2011, 03:54:47 PM
Maybe Brazilian religious iPhone apps or whatever it was will explode soon.  :)
:cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 17, 2011, 02:44:01 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 14, 2011, 01:12:36 PM
My options experiment is nearing the end of the second month. The June calls expire on the 18th (this Sunday). I sold my June AA calls at .54 for a total take of 378 in time premiums. AA is worth..15.40 right now. I bought at just about 17, so I'm down 1200 in value there. I've made a little over 600 in time premiums over the two months while losing 1200 in stock value. I also received a $72 dividend payment on the AA stock on 5/25.


So, I'm down 525 or so. I suppose it could be worse. I could be down the whole 1200 for this shitty month.  :P

Today's looking up, at least.

Woohoo.

AA now trading at...14.67. So my open June 16 calls are expiring. I buy them back for a penny. I sell to open new July calls at a 13 strike price for 1.78. In the money but not much. This nets me $1246 in cash. The stock value is down $1624 from my original purchase price.


So, for May, June and July I've banked $1800 or so in time premiums while losing $1624 in stock value. Hopefully the market will rebound and I'll get my losses wiped out, but if the in the money calls I just sold get exercised during the next four weeks, I'll have made some money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on June 17, 2011, 02:45:30 PM
Nice going. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on June 17, 2011, 03:21:25 PM
If Rimm drops a bit further, I may jump in thinking it is a takeover target. Hmmmmmmm
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 17, 2011, 03:28:09 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 17, 2011, 03:21:25 PM
If Rimm drops a bit further, I may jump in thinking it is a takeover target. Hmmmmmmm

I was thinking about that too. Here's some dude's take on it from SA:

Quote from: SeekingAlpha

Acquisition Scenario

The probability of Microsoft buying Research In Motion does not make much sense. All one has to do is study public statements by Microsoft and Nokia (NOK) related to their cooperation and the strategy of Microsoft as it relates to the acquisition of Skype, it becomes clear that there is not a technological or business reason for Microsoft to buy Research In Motion.

Google (GOOG), with the success of Android, certainly doesn't have the appetite to buy Research In Motion.

Carriers such as Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) would not want to buy Research In Motion for the fear of alienating Apple (AAPL) and Google. Cable operators, such as Comcast (CMCSA) have their focus on content and are not likely to jump to Research In Motion's rescue. If Comcast were to consider an acquisition in the wireless space, Sprint (S ) is a much better fit. Research In Motion has significant operations in Asia and Latin America where Comcast has no operations and thus no possibility of offering bundled services.

Satellite operator Dish Network (DISH) appears to be in the market for acquisitions, but it is better off engineering a merger with Direct TV (DTV).

Our analysis shows that there are not any obvious buyers of Research In Motion in Europe.

Indian and Chinese companies may have an interest but they tend to buy only when the assets are cheap. A good example is Tata Motors (TTM) of India buying Jaguar from Ford (F).

Our analysis shows that the Indian and Chinese companies will be attracted to Research In Motion at a stock price around $20.00.

The conclusion is that under this scenario, the value of Research In Motion is $20.00.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/275378-what-is-the-true-value-of-research-in-motion

Seems to point to nobody buying them, but you never know. There are a few potentials he doesn't mention there.

Edit: There is also the fact that Ballmer has a long history of doing things that don't "make much sense".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on June 17, 2011, 06:08:08 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 17, 2011, 03:28:09 PM
Edit: There is also the fact that Ballmer has a long history of doing things that don't "make much sense".
:yes: Ballmer sucks.  So there's a very real possibility of Microsoft buying RIM.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 21, 2011, 11:52:19 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 17, 2011, 02:44:01 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 14, 2011, 01:12:36 PM
My options experiment is nearing the end of the second month. The June calls expire on the 18th (this Sunday). I sold my June AA calls at .54 for a total take of 378 in time premiums. AA is worth..15.40 right now. I bought at just about 17, so I'm down 1200 in value there. I've made a little over 600 in time premiums over the two months while losing 1200 in stock value. I also received a $72 dividend payment on the AA stock on 5/25.


So, I'm down 525 or so. I suppose it could be worse. I could be down the whole 1200 for this shitty month.  :P

Today's looking up, at least.

Woohoo.

AA now trading at...14.67. So my open June 16 calls are expiring. I buy them back for a penny. I sell to open new July calls at a 13 strike price for 1.78. In the money but not much. This nets me $1246 in cash. The stock value is down $1624 from my original purchase price.


So, for May, June and July I've banked $1800 or so in time premiums while losing $1624 in stock value. Hopefully the market will rebound and I'll get my losses wiped out, but if the in the money calls I just sold get exercised during the next four weeks, I'll have made some money.

The calls I sold last week at 1.79 are now selling at 2.29. Not that it matters to me. I've got my cash. But it would have made a $300 difference if I could have sold them at that price Friday. I need to find out if that's because the stock is up 3% or so, or if it's because call buyers like to re-up the first couple days of the option month. Time to research.



Edit: Seems to be almost entirely correlated to the stock price this far from expiration day. Which makes sense, because the $300 difference I didn't get from selling the calls up here I have got back in the stock value. (My losses are that much less than they were Friday.)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on June 21, 2011, 04:14:31 PM
My inner risk taker is wanting to buy 100 or 200 of NBG @~1.40. So far, my inner risk taker has been tied up and locked up in the spleen.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 21, 2011, 04:55:02 PM
Dang.  I was expecting a big jump in Wallie World because of the USC decison decertifying the class action suit, but it's only up 25 cents.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on June 21, 2011, 04:56:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 21, 2011, 04:55:02 PM
Dang.  I was expecting a big jump in Wallie World because of the USC decison decertifying the class action suit, but it's only up 25 cents.

Wally World has bigger problems than a bunch of uppity women.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 21, 2011, 04:58:21 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 21, 2011, 04:56:28 PM
Wally World has bigger problems than a bunch of uppity women.

IIRC they were looking at paying something like $4K to every single woman that had every worked for them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 28, 2011, 01:43:11 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 17, 2011, 02:44:01 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 14, 2011, 01:12:36 PM
My options experiment is nearing the end of the second month. The June calls expire on the 18th (this Sunday). I sold my June AA calls at .54 for a total take of 378 in time premiums. AA is worth..15.40 right now. I bought at just about 17, so I'm down 1200 in value there. I've made a little over 600 in time premiums over the two months while losing 1200 in stock value. I also received a $72 dividend payment on the AA stock on 5/25.


So, I'm down 525 or so. I suppose it could be worse. I could be down the whole 1200 for this shitty month.  :P

Today's looking up, at least.

Woohoo.

AA now trading at...14.67. So my open June 16 calls are expiring. I buy them back for a penny. I sell to open new July calls at a 13 strike price for 1.78. In the money but not much. This nets me $1246 in cash. The stock value is down $1624 from my original purchase price.


So, for May, June and July I've banked $1800 or so in time premiums while losing $1624 in stock value. Hopefully the market will rebound and I'll get my losses wiped out, but if the in the money calls I just sold get exercised during the next four weeks, I'll have made some money.


Getting deeper in the money as AA is hitting about 15.50 today, up several percentage points total from the strike of 13. Making my losses in stock value $1049. And my gains from the calls still $1800. Nothing's been exercised, and there are no record dates coming. Nice that I'm getting a bit of a rebound. I may close it up so I don't get called.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 28, 2011, 02:11:51 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 21, 2011, 04:55:02 PM
Dang.  I was expecting a big jump in Wallie World because of the USC decison decertifying the class action suit, but it's only up 25 cents.
Wasn't the decision already priced in?  It's not like investors didn't know long before the announcement that a 5 to 4 decision in their favor was coming.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 28, 2011, 05:39:54 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 28, 2011, 02:11:51 PM
Wasn't the decision already priced in?  It's not like investors didn't know long before the announcement that a 5 to 4 decision in their favor was coming.

Generally a person gets more credit for predicting an event before it takes place.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 01, 2011, 11:33:36 AM
Alcoa up to 16.23 today. Frankly, I don't understand why my open options aren't getting called  for a nearly 20% gain. I sure as hell would exercise that shit. If this keeps up, I'm gonna have my cake and eat it too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 01, 2011, 12:03:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 28, 2011, 05:39:54 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 28, 2011, 02:11:51 PM
Wasn't the decision already priced in?  It's not like investors didn't know long before the announcement that a 5 to 4 decision in their favor was coming.

Generally a person gets more credit for predicting an event before it takes place.
What does it have to do with anything?  The point is that investors don't ignore court battles until the decision comes in.  They already price in the odds, and given the extreme pro-business slant of the current make-up, the odds were probably so good that most of the decision was reflected in the price already.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 08, 2011, 11:27:30 AM
Used a pile of sideline cash today on this dip to pick up some things. T and CSX. I'm hoping some good budget news will come out and bump us back up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 11, 2011, 07:09:32 PM
Obviously didn't get the bump. Alcoa reported a decent earnings number after the close today and nearly wiped out a nearly three percent decline that had happened during the session. Oddly, that makes me more nervous my shares will get called away, not less. Italy's fault this time. 45 basis point rise in their 10 year bonds.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fav.r.ftdata.co.uk%2Ffiles%2F2011%2F07%2FItalian-10-year-government-bond-benchmark-yield-11-July-2011-Reuters.jpg&hash=d2eb74f051b7f7fa0a5fbf2d643db85865f1a07e)

Yeowch.


Also this:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fav.r.ftdata.co.uk%2Ffiles%2F2011%2F07%2FiTraxx_11July.png&hash=09179349005a3572b9ab465a1f7717e90f1607a5)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 12, 2011, 03:13:23 PM
I'm entering a phase of retrenchment. Other than my long-term holdings, I have converted everything to cash/shiny gold.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on July 12, 2011, 03:16:39 PM
Time to get out ?

Total Eurozone sovereign debt - 7.8 trillion euros.

Ireland, Greece and Portugal had 8.5% of that total.

Italy has 23.5% of it, and is looking for 500 bn euros in borrowings into 2014.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 12, 2011, 03:18:46 PM
My reasoning was that the chance of a debt ceiling deal is lessened, and I am clearing the decks just in case.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on July 12, 2011, 03:23:15 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on July 12, 2011, 03:18:46 PM
My reasoning was that the chance of a debt ceiling deal is lessened, and I am clearing the decks just in case.

You've inverted the possibilities, previously people were talking about the chance of a debt default, is the probability now that the reps push the USA off a cliff, though there's still a small chance the situation could be rescued ? :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 12, 2011, 05:46:25 PM
Quote from: mongers on July 12, 2011, 03:23:15 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on July 12, 2011, 03:18:46 PM
My reasoning was that the chance of a debt ceiling deal is lessened, and I am clearing the decks just in case.

You've inverted the possibilities, previously people were talking about the chance of a debt default, is the probability now that the reps push the USA off a cliff, thought there's still a small chance the situation could be rescued ? :unsure:

I'm going on my gut. My gut doesn't fail me much in bidness.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 13, 2011, 12:50:34 PM
Metals hitting the roof thanks to the bernank. Silver more than gold though. Doing well, and probably will until the next Eurozone country throws us under the bus. Maybe I'll start a pool to guess which one it will be.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 13, 2011, 01:36:15 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 13, 2011, 12:50:34 PM
Metals hitting the roof thanks to the bernank. Silver more than gold though. Doing well, and probably will until the next Eurozone country throws us under the bus. Maybe I'll start a pool to guess which one it will be.

And the winner is...

Quote

Fitch Ratings-London-13 July 2011: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Greece's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'CCC' from 'B+. The Short-term foreign currency IDR is also downgraded to 'C' from 'B' and the Rating Watch Negative (RWN) on all three ratings has been removed. The agency has affirmed the euro area Country Ceiling at 'AAA', which is applicable to all euro area member states, including Greece.

The downgrade follows the assigning of a RWN on Greece's ratings on 20 May. At that time, Fitch stated that it would resolve the RWN in light of the conclusion of the fourth review of Greece's economic programme by the IMF and that in the absence of a fully-funded and credible EU-IMF programme, Greece's sovereign ratings would likely be lowered to 'CCC'. Moreover, Fitch's previous rating of 'B+' was premised on the judgement that provision of new money would not be conditional on private sector participation in any new and enhanced EU-IMF programme that would potentially result in a default event.

Today's rating downgrade reflects the absence of a new, fully-funded and credible EU-IMF programme for Greece, coupled with heightened uncertainty surrounding the role of private creditors in any future funding, as well as Greece's weakening macroeconomic outlook.

New money is required to address Greece's fiscal funding shortfall that would otherwise emerge in 2012 - a key weakness of the current EU-IMF programme highlighted by Fitch at the turn of the year. Fitch had expected the uncertainty surrounding new money, along with the role of private creditors, to be resolved with the completion of the fourth review of the current EU-IMF programme earlier this month. The agency notes that while the main parameters of a new multi-annual adjustment programme were discussed at an Ecofin meeting on 11-12 July, no further clarity on the volume and the terms of new money or the nature of private sector participation was forthcoming.

Fitch remains of the opinion that any additional financial support for Greece will only be credible in providing a path to fiscal solvency if it is fully funded beyond the end of the current programme in mid-2013. New European Commission estimates of gross fiscal financing needs of EUR172bn up to mid-2014 imply substantial additional EU-IMF financial support over and above the EUR110bn already committed. However, the agency is concerned that reliance on privatisation receipts of EUR30bn and largely unquantifiable private sector participation to supplement official new money would leave a new programme vulnerable to future funding shortfalls, subjecting Greece to continuing uncertainty. While asset sales of EUR5bn look attainable in 2011, the privatisation programme will become increasingly challenging.

Fitch believes any new programme must be backed by credible policy targets. The successful passage through parliament of the Medium Term Fiscal Strategy at the end of June sent a strong message that the Greek authorities remain fully committed to the EU-IMF programme. However, official new data for the first six months of 2011 point to expenditure overruns and revenue shortfalls, highlighting the urgent need for recently legislated new measures for 2011, while there are growing doubts about the capacity of the Greek economy to withstand further fiscal consolidation in a climate of continuing economic and financial uncertainty. Thus, a further contraction in economic activity of some 4% of GDP now looks likely in 2011, followed by a weak recovery in 2012.

Fitch's 'CCC' rating encapsulates substantial credit risk and acknowledges that default is a real possibility. As previously stated by Fitch, private sector involvement would likely be viewed as a sign of sovereign credit impairment and could trigger a rating default event.

lulz


Market's drifting slowly down from this morning's bump.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on July 13, 2011, 02:03:34 PM
So Greece isn't doing too well financially? I bet nobody saw that coming, good job eagle-eyed Fitch spotted it!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 13, 2011, 05:05:55 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on July 13, 2011, 02:03:34 PM
So Greece isn't doing too well financially? I bet nobody saw that coming, good job eagle-eyed Fitch spotted it!

It hasn't dawned on the EU, the ECB, and the IMF yet.

What did Bernanke do MIM?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 13, 2011, 05:14:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 13, 2011, 05:05:55 PM
What did Bernanke do MIM?

Hinted that more QE-type activities were being considered.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 13, 2011, 05:17:34 PM
Goddamn Jewboy. :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 13, 2011, 05:54:42 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 13, 2011, 12:50:34 PM
Metals hitting the roof thanks to the bernank.

:)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on July 13, 2011, 06:11:04 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 13, 2011, 05:14:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 13, 2011, 05:05:55 PM
What did Bernanke do MIM?

Hinted that more QE-type activities were being considered.

Will they be handing out free wheelbarrows this time ?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on July 14, 2011, 12:42:19 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 13, 2011, 05:05:55 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on July 13, 2011, 02:03:34 PM
So Greece isn't doing too well financially? I bet nobody saw that coming, good job eagle-eyed Fitch spotted it!

It hasn't dawned on the EU, the ECB, and the IMF yet.


It is very disturbing that the policy on Greece seems to be so reactive. Everyone else seems to know that Greece will never repay the bulk of that debt. They should get ahead of the game and provide a credible solution and end this damaging uncertainty.

Meh, a pointless tautological post really, but why don't the Euro institutions see it that way?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 14, 2011, 03:14:33 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on July 14, 2011, 12:42:19 AM
It is very disturbing that the policy on Greece seems to be so reactive. Everyone else seems to know that Greece will never repay the bulk of that debt. They should get ahead of the game and provide a credible solution and end this damaging uncertainty.

Meh, a pointless tautological post really, but why don't the Euro institutions see it that way?

Nobody cares about Greece per se. They care about Greece as the first domino.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on July 14, 2011, 04:34:58 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 14, 2011, 03:14:33 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on July 14, 2011, 12:42:19 AM
It is very disturbing that the policy on Greece seems to be so reactive. Everyone else seems to know that Greece will never repay the bulk of that debt. They should get ahead of the game and provide a credible solution and end this damaging uncertainty.

Meh, a pointless tautological post really, but why don't the Euro institutions see it that way?

Nobody cares about Greece per se. They care about Greece as the first domino.

I thought that was Laos ?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 15, 2011, 12:41:36 PM
Well, my Alcoa options are still open and this is the last trading day before expiration. They are so far in the money at this point that they are trading above what I sold them for even on expiration day. Hopefully, they will either expire clean or drop in value at the end of the trading session so I can buy them back. Either of those means I walk with the cash and the stock. If they are called, I have to sell the stock for $13 a share. I will only make a couple hundred bucks if that happens.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 15, 2011, 01:57:21 PM
I've decided that once this nerve-wracking thing is over, I'm selling the lot and going long GLD. I might sell options against that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 15, 2011, 03:44:39 PM
The trading day is over and my contracts are still open. They'll go dead tomorrow and I get to keep all the money.  :punk:

Beats having to sell all those shares for 13 bucks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on July 18, 2011, 02:31:13 AM
I'm out. Back to cash, shame there is nowhere decent to put it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 18, 2011, 10:59:24 AM
What a retard.



Quote


PSA: Brokers, Don't Pump Stocks on Twitter

It's amazing that this needs to be repeated in 2011, but here goes...
BROKERS, DON'T PUMP STOCKS ON TWITTER.

Idiots, the internet is forever.  No different than the old message boards or email.  Same rules apply and nothing you delete is deleted.  And you'll look like a dirtbag anyway.

Here's DealBook on a broker who's been suspended for sending "unbalanced" tweets about stocks she owned:

    Wall Street's self regulatory organization has suspended a California-based broker for sending a series of "misrepresentative and unbalanced" messages on the microblogging site Twitter. The Financial Regulatory Authority, or Finra, also fined the broker $10,000. Her suspension will last a year...

    Finra sanctioned the California broker after she touted certain investments to her 1,400 Twitter followers without notifying her firm of the stock-picking "tweets." Some of the "overly positive" messages predicted that stocks, including Advanced Micro Devices, or AMD, would soon surge.

    On Sept. 9, 2009, she tweeted, "Keep an i on AMD ppl! Just bike abve $5 = margins & institutionals can now 'play ball!' Barclay upgraded to $7 ystrdy, but it should be $10+"

    A couple months later, she tweeted, "How accurate am I with AMD? Just check out my tweets! The future of AMD in 2010? Ummm..I would say $12 is conservative!"

By the way, what's an "institutional", lol.

We're not here to debate how stupid the people acting on her tweets are, that's a separate discussion.  If you go make investment decisions based on something you read on Twitter and do no further research, you're a schmuck and we don't feel bad for you.

But for Wall Street professionals taking advantage of social media, try to be smart about it so you don't ruin it for everyone.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 18, 2011, 01:54:37 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on July 18, 2011, 02:31:13 AM
I'm out. Back to cash, shame there is nowhere decent to put it.

I'm mostly in cash coming out of the weekend. I closed all my Alcoa positions with a profit. All I have left is cash and some GLD. Not including the IRA, of course.


So today I got a couple slightly ITM calls in SLB and IBM, who both report this week.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 18, 2011, 04:22:19 PM
Goodbye Borders. I enjoyed your 50% off coupons.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 19, 2011, 11:32:33 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 18, 2011, 01:54:37 PM

I'm mostly in cash coming out of the weekend. I closed all my Alcoa positions with a profit. All I have left is cash and some GLD. Not including the IRA, of course.


So today I got a couple slightly ITM calls in SLB and IBM, who both report this week.

I bought 2 calls on IBM yesterday ahead of the quarter announcement last night. Sold for a 2k profit. Hopefully I can do something similar with SLB on Friday.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 19, 2011, 11:49:56 AM
I've completed my 'debt ceiling apocalypse' prep just in case everything goes to hell. Which it won't, but better safe than sorry.

Also, News Corp is popping up on my radar. I grabbed 250 shares at around 15.8 something. Just for shits and giggles.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on July 19, 2011, 01:54:51 PM
Am enjoying Intel going up 3 and a half percent today.   :punk:


Not enjoying looking at the potential had I not been so stupid and sold a hundred or so shares of Apple 2 years ago.  :weep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 19, 2011, 04:27:11 PM
August gold and silver options contracts expire in a week on 7-26. There seems to be a quasi-pattern of a dip or lull around expiration time and then a jump up afterward. We just came off a big gain though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 21, 2011, 01:09:38 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on July 19, 2011, 01:54:51 PM
Am enjoying Intel going up 3 and a half percent today.   :punk:



Looks like you gave it back. I tried to ride their quarter announcement and they failed me. Luckily Union Pacific made up for it. It was a wash. My SLB position is looking very good though. I'm fighting the urge to sell because I want to wait until after they report in the morning.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 22, 2011, 10:57:18 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 19, 2011, 11:32:33 AMHopefully I can do something similar with SLB on Friday.

:cool:

Yeah. I'm in this trade at a strike of 85.

Best winner of the week for me.


WTF happened to CAT? Glad I wasn't betting on their quarter.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on July 22, 2011, 11:12:42 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 21, 2011, 01:09:38 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on July 19, 2011, 01:54:51 PM
Am enjoying Intel going up 3 and a half percent today.   :punk:



Looks like you gave it back. I tried to ride their quarter announcement and they failed me. Luckily Union Pacific made up for it. It was a wash. My SLB position is looking very good though. I'm fighting the urge to sell because I want to wait until after they report in the morning.

Yeah It's terribly annoying.  They've beat expectations every quarter for the past like 18 months.  With this quarter a year ago being a record for profits, and they've managed to drop due to 'slowing demand' every time anyway.   :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 25, 2011, 11:42:49 AM
Netflix reports just after the market closes tonight. I'm hoping for a pop like Apple and IBM had so I can cash in tomorrow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 25, 2011, 04:59:58 PM
I'm giving a tiny bit of thought to buying into a short gold fund.  I've got IRA funds on the sideline waiting for a major dip in the market caused by uncertainty over the debt limit and the end of QE2, but that has failed to materialize.

Anyone know how a short fund operates?  More specifically, how does a short fund stay alive at a time when the underlying asset is rising in price?  Seems to me if you keep on buying puts that are never in the money eventually you're broke.

More generally, any thoughts on the idea?  MIM, you seem to be kind of an Ouija board when it comes to commodity prices.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on July 25, 2011, 05:07:32 PM
RIM firing more people today. 2000. another Canadian telecom gonna fail?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 25, 2011, 05:51:46 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 25, 2011, 04:59:58 PM
I'm giving a tiny bit of thought to buying into a short gold fund.  I've got IRA funds on the sideline waiting for a major dip in the market caused by uncertainty over the debt limit and the end of QE2, but that has failed to materialize.

Anyone know how a short fund operates?  More specifically, how does a short fund stay alive at a time when the underlying asset is rising in price?  Seems to me if you keep on buying puts that are never in the money eventually you're broke.

More generally, any thoughts on the idea?  MIM, you seem to be kind of an Ouija board when it comes to commodity prices.

You have to be careful with ETFs on commodities, because there are a couple different ways they spot themselves to the commodities. Futures contracts and stuff like that don't always track the live prices well, and you can get movements too late to matter. The ones I like for gold and silver are the ones who actually have a physical inventory. GLS and SLV hold both bullion and paper, Sprott (PHYS and PSLV) holds actual bullion as 100% of the trust. Futures options can telegraph a bit on them. The number of open contracts is available data. One site that great for metals analysis is this one:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Some of the best info is on blogs, actually. Today's post is a good example.
Quote
Tomorrow is option expiration on the Comex. I hear that there are quite a few call options open around the 1600 strike. So we would expect the price of gold to get hammered down below 1600 sometime this week.

When options are in the money, they are converted into open futures contracts. So there may be a lot of new holders of futures contracts who get a stiff gut check on Wednesday through Friday, if it does not come tomorrow.

I could have looked that stuff up, but hey.

Options expiration dates tend to have this pattern recently (well, since I've followed it). The options go in the money as the price goes up, get exercised at a lower strike, and bam. Everybody who is holding gold or silver futures and are short calls are suddenly selling their paper at strike because they have to and the market moves down.

He does a lot of charting too, but also tracks the inventories of the major clearing houses. Declining inventories is a signal of higher prices coming. There seems to be some distrust because they issue a lot more paper than they have inventory. So people insist on taking delivery and it compounds the problem.

As for a short etf, they are buying puts on the futures or on one or more of the commodity funds or various kinds of commodity swaps and options. Theoretical losses are infinite, of course. Ultra short ones means they are not only short, but leveraged 2x. So, if gold goes down 10 points, ultra short gold goes up 20. I don't short often, frankly. I sell when I think it's gonna crash and buy once it's done. As for how they stay alive when prices are going up, well that's tough. If their rules say they have to be short X% at all times, then they can't really save themselves by going to cash, which would be the obvious thing to do in that situation. GLL is a 2x short gold fund, and (I just looked) it's only 47% invested. So I guess the answer is, hold cash.


As for RIMM--It's a corpse.
http://www.bgr.com/2011/06/30/open-letter-to-blackberry-bosses-senior-rim-exec-tells-all-as-company-crumbles-around-him/
"Like working in Soviet Russia." :p


And Netflix failed me today. I'll still make a bit from them, but I was hoping for a pop. The after hours people didn't like their quarter announcement. Tomorrow we'll get 3M and Norfolk Southern. The market likes MMM I think, and after the results from CSX and Union Pacific, I think NSR will be good too.




Edit: Here's the earnings calendar.

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20110726.html

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 26, 2011, 03:22:07 PM
Poking around a little on etrade I got this about GLL:

"Leveraged and Inverse ETFs may not be suitable for investors who plan to hold positions for longer than one trading session."

What trading session are they referring to?  Options I know all have one day in the month when they come due.  Is the same true of other derivatives contracts?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 26, 2011, 09:08:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 26, 2011, 03:22:07 PM
Poking around a little on etrade I got this about GLL:

"Leveraged and Inverse ETFs may not be suitable for investors who plan to hold positions for longer than one trading session."

What trading session are they referring to?  Options I know all have one day in the month when they come due.  Is the same true of other derivatives contracts?

Trading session=same day.

They mean "our shit is for day traders".  :P

And yes, options all have an expiration date. You can get them with very long times on them. Like six months sometimes. Or short weekly ones. Usually, people just trade the normal month.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 27, 2011, 11:37:19 AM
Quote
The market likes MMM I think, and after the results from CSX and Union Pacific, I think NSR will be good too.

MMM was a bad call. Norfolk Southern was a good one. I don't risk much gambling on earnings so no biggie, Norfolk's symbol is NSC btw. I messed it up above. I made slightly more on NSC than I lost on MMM.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on July 27, 2011, 07:50:58 PM
I never buy based on earnings results.  Been burned too many times.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 27, 2011, 07:53:11 PM
I buy on gut feelings, Oijua board readings and the entrails of chicken sacrifices.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on July 27, 2011, 07:56:34 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on July 27, 2011, 07:53:11 PM
I buy on gut feelings, Oijua board readings and the entrails of chicken sacrifices.
I'm kind of partial to tasseomancy myself.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: jimmy olsen on July 27, 2011, 08:04:06 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 15, 2011, 11:32:59 AM

Disclaimer: This post does not constitute financial advice
:D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 28, 2011, 08:28:27 PM
God bless the oil companies. That's all I have to say.



I hope this stupid debt ceiling thing doesn't get locked up another week. It will hurt.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 29, 2011, 01:49:33 AM
Boehner gave up trying to get the votes for the evening. After hours trading is in freefall. Have a fucking wonderful Friday morning.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on July 29, 2011, 02:08:11 AM
Didn't think they would get things sorted, one of the reasons I sold out. For my investing decisions I work on the premise that Congress is incompetent.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 31, 2011, 02:54:56 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on July 29, 2011, 02:08:11 AM
Didn't think they would get things sorted, one of the reasons I sold out. For my investing decisions I work on the premise that Congress is incompetent.

Sadly, I'm a retarded optimist.  :P

I'm holding out for the bump sometime before my small bets expire Aug 20th.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on July 31, 2011, 04:39:11 PM
Well, there is also the British tax system for me to consider. In our current state of affairs the marginal rate of taxation I face on dividends is excessive for a potentially risky holding.

I doubled up on a siberian gold mine though, targetting capital gains which would be treated favourably atm. Which is far more risky but also free of tax unless it goes really well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 01, 2011, 06:29:20 PM
I'm looking for a short squeeze tomorrow. I'll have to get up early I think.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 01, 2011, 06:42:57 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 01, 2011, 06:29:20 PM
I'm looking for a short squeeze tomorrow. I'll have to get up early I think.

Do they tend to be more approachable in the morning?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 01, 2011, 09:47:12 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 01, 2011, 06:42:57 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 01, 2011, 06:29:20 PM
I'm looking for a short squeeze tomorrow. I'll have to get up early I think.

Do they tend to be more approachable in the morning?

The reason I say that is that the market reacts in the early day to what happened overnight. Margin requirements start getting called in forcing shorts to buy, mutual funds allocate capital deposits and other things like that. A lot of times that sets the tone for the day. In this case, the Senate is voting at noon (9 my time). That's a reaction a couple hours after the open, so there will probably be a swing rather than a morning set and then flat kind of day. Also, the House voted just after the close today, so that's not quite baked in yet either.


Friday's nonfarm payroll news will suck, apparently. That might be a good gold buying day after I sell off some stuff on the budget bump in the next couple days. I'll decide later in the week.


Then again, Italy might keep crashing and ruin everything early.  :P

Also, there a rumor of a downgrade on France.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 02, 2011, 12:34:26 PM
Just bought some more SPY on today's dip.  Paid 127.16.

Thanks for talking me out of the GLL MIM.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 02, 2011, 02:02:39 PM
I picked up some shares of CAT and some ITM calls on UNP, FMC and AAPL at about the -160/-170 Dow level. Hopefully, there will at least be a mini recovery in the next two weeks.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 02, 2011, 02:33:24 PM
We're bouncing up and down off the -200 level.


Edit: Okay we left it behind, and volumes are crazy. Let's see what I can poach in the last 15 minutes...


Edit2: Down 250  :wacko:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 02, 2011, 03:06:12 PM
Final damage: Dow down 265 points. I got some super cheap ITM calls at the very end in CSX and Chevron.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 03, 2011, 01:00:24 PM
We were down another 130 when rumors of QE3 hit the wire. Now we've gone barely positive.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 03, 2011, 01:21:46 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 03, 2011, 01:00:24 PM
We were down another 130 when rumors of QE3 hit the wire. Now we've gone barely positive.

excellent! for an other heavy run of the printing press, the Fed can buy another 3 months of stagnation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 03, 2011, 02:31:54 PM
The Rake's Progress :

http://www.soane.org/collections_legacy/the_soane_hogarths/rakes_progress/

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 03, 2011, 02:38:57 PM
How ironic that all you guys dumped on the expectation of default and wound up benefitting after a deal was made.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 03, 2011, 03:21:24 PM
Well it is just one thing after another, the markets seem to be turning on Italian bonds now :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14392943

The instability of it all seems to be increasing  :huh:


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zanza on August 04, 2011, 06:37:13 AM
I want to invest into some indices (DAX or Euro Stoxx). Should I buy an actively managed fund or an ETF?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 04, 2011, 07:03:01 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 03, 2011, 03:21:24 PM
Well it is just one thing after another, the markets seem to be turning on Italian bonds now :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14392943

The instability of it all seems to be increasing  :huh:

IIRC sometime around 2009 Soros warned against the growing optimism and outlined that the gargantuan CDS ties between banks could cause a massive chain of defaults and collapses, even after a default which could seem to be contained.

And now that there is a real danger of that he closes his fund and retires. Suspicious, and alarming.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on August 04, 2011, 07:47:33 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 04, 2011, 07:03:01 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 03, 2011, 03:21:24 PM
Well it is just one thing after another, the markets seem to be turning on Italian bonds now :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14392943

The instability of it all seems to be increasing  :huh:

IIRC sometime around 2009 Soros warned against the growing optimism and outlined that the gargantuan CDS ties between banks could cause a massive chain of defaults and collapses, even after a default which could seem to be contained.

And now that there is a real danger of that he closes his fund and retires. Suspicious, and alarming.

I think we're seeing the slow, drawn out death of an ideology.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 04, 2011, 10:17:08 AM
I'm 25% GLD, 25% itm calls on GLD and SLV for the last couple days. What little I have in other stocks are basically play money positions I've added as we go down. Anyone who was short gold at this point has had his back broken.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 04, 2011, 11:46:20 AM
Quote from: mongers on August 04, 2011, 07:47:33 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 04, 2011, 07:03:01 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 03, 2011, 03:21:24 PM
Well it is just one thing after another, the markets seem to be turning on Italian bonds now :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14392943 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14392943)

The instability of it all seems to be increasing  :huh:

IIRC sometime around 2009 Soros warned against the growing optimism and outlined that the gargantuan CDS ties between banks could cause a massive chain of defaults and collapses, even after a default which could seem to be contained.

And now that there is a real danger of that he closes his fund and retires. Suspicious, and alarming.

I think we're seeing the slow, drawn out death of an ideology.

Socialists like Soros will be around for some time to come.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 04, 2011, 12:14:44 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 04, 2011, 07:03:01 AM
And now that there is a real danger of that he closes his fund and retires. Suspicious, and alarming.

More like two-faced and cynical.

http://blogs.forbes.com/halahtouryalai/2011/07/26/soros-exits-and-takes-a-cheap-shot-at-regulators/ (http://blogs.forbes.com/halahtouryalai/2011/07/26/soros-exits-and-takes-a-cheap-shot-at-regulators/)

Quote
Soros Exits And Takes A Cheap Shot At Regulators
Jul. 26 2011

In order to avoid a new rule that would force Soros's funds to register with the SEC he will no longer manage outside investors' money.

George Soros is not a casualty of Dodd-Frank, and his decision to stop managing investors' money shouldn't be blamed on new financial rules.

Billionaire hedge fund manager George Soros announced he is bowing out of the business and will no longer manage other investors' money. In a letter to investors today the Hungarian hedge fund titan explained his decision saying it is "an unfortunate consequence" of new financial reform regulations. That's an odd reason for one of the world's most successful hedge fund managers to stop winning money for investors.

What Soros is referring to in his letter is a Dodd-Frank regulation that gives the Securities and Exchange Commission the power to force hedge funds with over $150 million in assets to register with the agency. When the SEC adopted the rules late last month its chairperson Mary L. Schapiro said in a statement, "our proposal will give the Commission, and the public, insight into hedge fund and other private fund managers who previously conducted their work under the radar and outside the vision of regulators."

In other words, the regulator believes gathering hedge funds' information such as the size and ownership of the fund, the types of clients they advise, their employees, their advisory activities and conflicts of interest will empower investors with more information about who they give their money to, and also give regulators a better view of the hedge fund industry.

But by bowing out of the money management business (for outside investors anyway) Soros is saying he doesn't like those requirements. As a result and in order to avoid such registration requirements Soros now will only manage money for its family office clients–exempting it from registration. Read the SEC's rules about exempting family offices here.

Citing the registration requirement as a reason to leave the business is an odd move for someone who's been supportive of the Democratic Party even after it successfully pushed for Dodd-Frank regulations.

Moreover, blaming SEC registration does not send a good message. Unless you think hedge funds should remain exempt from sharing very basic information about the way they do business and how much money they manage hedge fund registration shouldn't be a problem.

As one hedge fund industry veteran puts it, "Soros's comments about regulation is a cheap shot at regulators."

It's also a strange comment on Soros's part when you consider that the hedge fund industry's biggest lobbying group supports hedge fund registration. The Alternative Investment Management Association position on hedge fund registration is that it will help regulators "...and other public authorities to obtain a better understanding of our industry...."

From AIMA:

    While some details and definitions remain to be clarified, AIMA supports those parts of the bill relating to the registration of hedge fund managers and the periodic reporting by managers to supervisors in the interests of improving their ability to assess financial stability.

If anyone should be asking questions it's those investors whose money will be returned to them at the end of the year–all $1 billion of it. My first question: Why is the guy who's been managing my money for all these years finding ways to avoid reporting to the SEC?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 04, 2011, 12:29:39 PM
Mac and Cheese?

Quote from: Dow 30
ALCOA
-5.19%

AM EXPRESS
-3.11%

BOEING
-3.99%

BANK OF AM
9.12
-4.4%

CATERPILLAR
-4.47%

CISCO
-2.52%

CHEVRON
-4.16%

DU PONT
-3.92%

DISNEY
-3.92%

GE
-3.81%

HOME DEPOT
-1.79%

H-P
-2.94%

IBM
-2.21%

INTEL
-2.2%

J&J
-0.66%

JP MORGAN
-2.86%

COCA COLA
-1.77%

KRAFT
+2.3%

MCDONALDS
-0.01%

3M
-2.74%

MERCK
-1.62%

MICROSOFT
-1.42%

PFIZER
-1.53%

P&G
-0.36%

AT&T
-1.29%

TRAVELERS
-1.16%

UNITED TECH
-4.17%

VERIZON
-1.78%

WALMART
-1.23%

EXXON MOBIL
-3.36%
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 04, 2011, 02:39:47 PM
Quote from: Zanza on August 04, 2011, 06:37:13 AM
I want to invest into some indices (DAX or Euro Stoxx). Should I buy an actively managed fund or an ETF?

An actively managed index fund is a bit of an oxymoron, no?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 04, 2011, 10:21:51 PM
I suggest you find one that shorts the European financial sector, Z.

:lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 05, 2011, 03:28:52 AM
Interesting
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zanza on August 05, 2011, 03:53:00 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 04, 2011, 02:39:47 PM
An actively managed index fund is a bit of an oxymoron, no?
The funds I think of contain stocks from a particular index, but not necessarily in the same quantities as the market capitalization would suggest.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zanza on August 05, 2011, 03:55:09 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 04, 2011, 10:21:51 PM
I suggest you find one that shorts the European financial sector, Z.

:lol:
Hehe. I want to put some money into the stock market after this has blown over. I don't think the situation is hopeless and the markets will go up again eventually.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 05, 2011, 03:56:18 AM
Quote from: Zanza on August 05, 2011, 03:53:00 AM
The funds I think of contain stocks from a particular index, but not necessarily in the same quantities as the market capitalization would suggest.

Not sure I see the point.  One of the main selling points of an index fund is that the management ratios is very low compared to an actively managed fund.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zanza on August 05, 2011, 04:03:53 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 05, 2011, 03:56:18 AM
Quote from: Zanza on August 05, 2011, 03:53:00 AM
The funds I think of contain stocks from a particular index, but not necessarily in the same quantities as the market capitalization would suggest.

Not sure I see the point.  One of the main selling points of an index fund is that the management ratios is very low compared to an actively managed fund.
The point is that I wondered if potentially higher gains from active management sets of the lower cost of an ETF.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on August 05, 2011, 08:38:29 AM
I'm glad I didn't buy stocks when I was asking for the advice on Languish a couple of months ago. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 05, 2011, 12:25:17 PM
Might be a good time to buy now, or maybe another 10% fall is in the offing  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 05, 2011, 12:31:16 PM
Yesterday, I bought calls on Kraft and that's up 261% today.  :D


The Euro bailout will bring a temporary bottom here I think, but I'm not putting a ton into it until it's more proven.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 05, 2011, 07:29:17 PM
Today one of my stop losses triggered and I dumped my position in MAIN.  Held it since November and earned a small net gain, plus some decent dividends (paid monthly).  I turned right around put most of the proceeds into a new positon in ETR.  So let's all keep our fingers crossed that there are no nuclear disasters in the US anytime soon. :)

On another note, my Garmin position, which is usually a source of disappointment, skyrocketed today. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 05, 2011, 07:38:01 PM
Quote from: Caliga on August 05, 2011, 07:29:17 PM
On another note, my Garmin position, which is usually a source of disappointment, skyrocketed today. :hmm:
Maybe lots of people need direction to Canada just about now.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 06, 2011, 10:59:09 PM
Pretty much nobody knows what to do now. I have some trades placed for Monday morning that liquidate my standing stock holdings and get puts on Intel, GE and Microsoft. I'm tired of riding the decline with no profits. Yesterday, I made a small packet shorting Bank of America. I have some long calls on other things that I've been placing as we fall. If the market drops on those, I lose maybe five hundred bucks. If the market goes up a couple hundred points, they will make me fifty grand. I'll take the risk.

If new news hits tomorrow about Germany's willingness to back Italy, I'll cancel my short trades.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2011, 11:06:04 PM
MIM's money never sleeps.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 07, 2011, 01:20:14 PM
Once again, I got the fuck out with my short term stock account when it was about to go into the shitter for a bit.



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 07, 2011, 01:38:39 PM
ECB's about to buy a shit ton of Italian and Spanish bonds. Makes another QE here more likely. Geithner is staying at Treasury--I'm not sure if that's bullish or bearish though. :p


I put a stop loss on my gold. The Israeli and Saudi markets opened very badly over the weekend.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 07, 2011, 05:05:36 PM
S&P futures down 250 points. Gold nearly 1700. This will be fun.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 07, 2011, 06:51:01 PM
I'm gonna watch CNBC's special at 8pm and see how panic-y they are.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 07, 2011, 07:05:56 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 07, 2011, 05:05:36 PM
S&P futures down 250 points. Gold nearly 1700. This will be fun.

That can't be right--that is about 20%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on August 07, 2011, 07:10:01 PM
Nikkei down about 1.5% and Sydney around 1.00% lower; not too significant ?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 07, 2011, 07:19:18 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 07, 2011, 07:05:56 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 07, 2011, 05:05:36 PM
S&P futures down 250 points. Gold nearly 1700. This will be fun.

That can't be right--that is about 20%.

Yeah I think that was Dow. My bad.



Anyway, I have some calls on GLD which will certainly be deep in the money at the open tomorrow.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 07, 2011, 07:21:25 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 07, 2011, 07:10:01 PM
Nikkei down about 1.5% and Sydney around 1.00% lower; not too significant ?

They might be waiting for Europe's markets to open.

Or they took my advice and CALMED THE FUCK DOWN. I contacted the ambassadors.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 07, 2011, 07:24:03 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 07, 2011, 07:21:25 PM

Or they took my advice and CALMED THE FUCK DOWN. I contacted the ambassadors.

The G7 guys came out of their meeting saying they were starting up the presses. I think that put the brakes on the dive.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DontSayBanana on August 07, 2011, 08:58:09 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 07, 2011, 07:24:03 PM
The G7 guys came out of their meeting saying they were starting up the presses. I think that put the brakes on the dive.

At the mints?  Or suggesting some magic bullet that they want to unveil at a news conference? :huh:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 12:51:23 AM
Quote from: DontSayBanana on August 07, 2011, 08:58:09 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 07, 2011, 07:24:03 PM
The G7 guys came out of their meeting saying they were starting up the presses. I think that put the brakes on the dive.

At the mints?  Or suggesting some magic bullet that they want to unveil at a news conference? :huh:

No they're buying up bonds. Quantitative easing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 08:07:53 AM
I think CNBC dropped some downers into Cramer's coffee this morning. He is not being entertaining.  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 08:10:50 AM
Bank of America is getting flushed down the loo. I bought puts.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 08:20:09 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22781946/NYSE_Invokes_Rule_48


Rule 48!


That's when the NYSE floor traders all turn against the Jedi.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 08, 2011, 09:09:31 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 08:20:09 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22781946/NYSE_Invokes_Rule_48


Rule 48!


That's when the NYSE floor traders all turn against the Jedi.

Other rules, as relayed by Frank Lopez:

Rule #1: Don't underestimate the other guy's greed (rarely forgotten on wall street, though perhaps by people who do business there).

Rule #2: Don't get high on your own supply (tragically forgotten by Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, who retained too many of the crappy securities they created).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 09:28:47 AM
Go P&G, go!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 09:49:20 AM
If there is going to be a turn today, it will be after Europe closes.

Best investment: VIX   :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 10:31:54 AM
 :lmfao:


I bought some puts on BofA at a strike of 7 last week. They just went in the money. BAC is crashing hard.  :nelson:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 08, 2011, 10:54:13 AM
For some reason I find market crashes a lot of fun. At least at the start. In 2008 it ceased to be fun at the end.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 01:28:10 PM
Jesus.

The puts I got as protection (C, BAC, BK, VZ) are all up so much my entire portfolio is up almost 27%.  :blink:




I should short crashes more often.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 08, 2011, 01:32:49 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 01:28:10 PM
Jesus.

The puts I got as protection (C, BAC, BK, VZ) are all up so much my entire portfolio is up almost 27%.  :blink:




I should short crashes more often.

:cheers: Here's to doomsday.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 08, 2011, 02:05:23 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 01:28:10 PM
Jesus.

The puts I got as protection (C, BAC, BK, VZ) are all up so much my entire portfolio is up almost 27%.  :blink:




I should short crashes more often.
Seems like you overhedged.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 03:28:00 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 09:49:20 AM

Best investment: VIX   :P

I really wish I'd followed my own advice.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on August 08, 2011, 03:29:11 PM
So was this a 'Crash' ?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 08, 2011, 03:41:05 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2011, 03:29:11 PM
So was this a 'Crash' ?

Mongers, a few more days like today, and I may be hitting you up for bike lessons.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 08, 2011, 03:41:36 PM
Nobody got the scarface reference?  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 08, 2011, 05:54:17 PM
Another stop loss triggered today.  My 'portfolio' is like 50% cash now. :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 08, 2011, 06:17:19 PM
In another couple of days like this, it would be indeterminate % cash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 08, 2011, 06:23:47 PM
I'm at 85% cash myself, about 5% beer, and only 10% in equities.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 08, 2011, 06:25:01 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 08, 2011, 06:17:19 PM
In another couple of days like this, it would be indeterminate % cash.
:Embarrass:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 06:25:48 PM
I'm at 10% gold bars, 40% canned goods, 40% shotguns and 10% prophylactics.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on August 08, 2011, 06:51:15 PM
What's with the gold fixation; there was a senior American bond trader on Channel 4 news, and he was suggesting a position of around 10-20% in gold, despite spending all the previous bit of the interview triumphing treasury bonds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 06:54:03 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2011, 06:51:15 PM
What's with the gold fixation; there was a senior American bond trader on Channel 4 news, and he was suggesting a position of around 10-20% in gold, despite spending all the previous bit of the interview triumphing treasury bonds.

It is considered a safe harbor.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 08, 2011, 06:56:39 PM
Cramer is saying 20% gold, too.  I ain't going there, though.  That bubble has got to burst at some point.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 06:59:19 PM
Quote from: Caliga on August 08, 2011, 06:56:39 PM
Cramer is saying 20% gold, too.  I ain't going there, though.  That bubble has got to burst at some point.

I know this is going to rile Raz up, but I bought some gold when it was around 1500/oz. I wouldn't buy it now though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on August 08, 2011, 07:20:38 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 06:59:19 PM
Quote from: Caliga on August 08, 2011, 06:56:39 PM
Cramer is saying 20% gold, too.  I ain't going there, though.  That bubble has got to burst at some point.

I know this is going to rile Raz up, but I bought some gold when it was around 1500/oz. I wouldn't buy it now though.

I can't get mad at you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on August 08, 2011, 07:20:56 PM
Panic in Asia ? - the main indexes are down 2-3% in early trading.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on August 08, 2011, 07:22:11 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 06:54:03 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2011, 06:51:15 PM
What's with the gold fixation; there was a senior American bond trader on Channel 4 news, and he was suggesting a position of around 10-20% in gold, despite spending all the previous bit of the interview triumphing treasury bonds.

It is considered a safe harbor.

I know that, but I couldn't understand why they are recommending converting cash into bubble which might be about to burst ?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 07:23:25 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2011, 07:22:11 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 06:54:03 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2011, 06:51:15 PM
What's with the gold fixation; there was a senior American bond trader on Channel 4 news, and he was suggesting a position of around 10-20% in gold, despite spending all the previous bit of the interview triumphing treasury bonds.

It is considered a safe harbor.

I know that, but I couldn't understand why they are recommending converting cash into bubble which might be about to burst ?

For some weird reason, a lot of people think that gold can only go up. Everytime I hear that on TV, it sets my teeth on edge.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 08, 2011, 07:27:30 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2011, 07:22:11 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 06:54:03 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2011, 06:51:15 PM
What's with the gold fixation; there was a senior American bond trader on Channel 4 news, and he was suggesting a position of around 10-20% in gold, despite spending all the previous bit of the interview triumphing treasury bonds.

It is considered a safe harbor.

I know that, but I couldn't understand why they are recommending converting cash into bubble which might be about to burst ?

Your cash might become totally worthless, gold is always worth something.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on August 08, 2011, 07:30:07 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 08, 2011, 07:27:30 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2011, 07:22:11 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 06:54:03 PM
Quote from: mongers on August 08, 2011, 06:51:15 PM
What's with the gold fixation; there was a senior American bond trader on Channel 4 news, and he was suggesting a position of around 10-20% in gold, despite spending all the previous bit of the interview triumphing treasury bonds.

It is considered a safe harbor.

I know that, but I couldn't understand why they are recommending converting cash into bubble which might be about to burst ?

Your cash might become totally worthless, gold is always worth something.

:D

I didn't think I'd find someone more pessimistic than me.

Tomorrow, I'm going to stock up on essentials.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on August 08, 2011, 07:36:31 PM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/business-14454406 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/business-14454406)

Quote
Asian markets tumble after share sell-off in the US
09 August 11 01:34
Asian markets have been hammered amid fears that the US is heading for a recession and after Wall Street posted the biggest losses since late 2008.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 3.7%, South Korea's Kospi lost 5%, and Australia's ASX shed 3.8%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 08, 2011, 07:36:58 PM
As the smart gremlin said in Gremlins II, Canned goods and shotguns.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsMc-IswG3w
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 08, 2011, 08:53:35 PM
Quote
LONDON (Dow Jones)--JP Morgan (JPM) has become the latest bank to up its forecast for spot gold prices, hiking its estimates by a whopping 39% and predicting the precious metal to reach at least $2,500 a troy ounce by the end of the year.

This is almost $800/oz higher than current levels, which represent an all-time high.

The U.S. bank had previously expected spot gold to be at $1,800/oz by year-end.

The move will come amid very high volatility, the bank's Colin Fenton said, and is being driven by "rising probability of a reflaring of financial crisis."

Earlier Monday, Goldman Sachs (GS) raised its forecast for gold, saying its economists now place a one-in-three chance of a U.S. recession that would most likely occur within the next six months. But its prices are significantly lower than JP Morgan's, with Goldman predicting a spot prices of $1,645/oz in three months and $1,730/oz by six months.

Gold soared higher overnight and has become an investor favorite amid deteriorating economic conditions in the euro zone and the U.S.

Friday's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA-plus by ratings agency S&P triggered the most recent strength in gold, which leapt over $70 from Friday's low to peak at $1,715.29/oz earlier Monday.

Morgan Stanley, ANZ, UBS, MF Global and Barclays Capital last week all upgraded their gold price forecasts, while producers like Barrick Gold (ABX), AngloGold Ashanti (AU) and Randgold Resources (GOLD) have been making bullish statement in support of further rises in recent days.

But JP Morgan said it isn't just gold that will benefit from the financial malaise. Commodities geared toward Asia, investment, and inflation will outperform commodities anchored more to the growth prospects and local supply chains of the U.S.

"The bullish basket includes Brent crude oil, gasoil, gold, raw sugar, copper, corn, and wheat," said JP Morgan's Fenton. "The bearish basket includes WTI crude oil, RBOB gasoline, aluminum, zinc, and North American natural gas."

He singled out sugar, noting that dollar weakness and rising inflation expectations open the upside for raw sugar prices to surge far higher than would otherwise be likely, perhaps doubling or more in a spike. But he cautioned that "sugar rallies tend to be brief, violent, and difficult to time."

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 08, 2011, 08:57:07 PM
An older but still relevant news item from last February:

Quote
Gold hasn't reinvented itself as a currency yet. But it is getting closer.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said it will allow clients to use the metal as collateral in some transactions. For example, a hedge fund wanting to borrow money for a short period can put up gold as collateral and use the borrowings to invest elsewhere, betting on making a better return. Typically, banks accept only Treasury bonds and stocks in such agreements.

By making the announcement, J.P. Morgan is effectively saying gold is as rock solid an investment as triple-A rated Treasurys, adding to a movement that ...

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 09:43:09 PM
Man, I'm buying more puts tomorrow. I'll be ready to sell them if the Fed does anything though. After this bloodbath, I'd have to guess they will.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 08, 2011, 09:56:24 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 08, 2011, 09:43:09 PM
Man, I'm buying more puts tomorrow. I'll be ready to sell them if the Fed does anything though. After this bloodbath, I'd have to guess they will.

It is just one crisis after another. I'd respect Bernanke if he put out a statement saying he is done dealing with this crap and he is off to Hawaii.

One of our classes of stock was down 14% today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 08, 2011, 10:01:19 PM
The S&P 500 futures are down another 2.5%. We are still quite a bit up on the recent past, so valuations aren't super attractive yet (the valuations could act as a floor). I wonder if we get a piece of really bad news if we don't crash out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 08, 2011, 11:28:07 PM
Meh, I think I am just gonna let my modest IRA holdings ride the roller coaster. 

Not due to retire for another decade or so anyway.

That, and if there's a real super-panic, I'll probably be among the jack-booted thugs shooting up food riots anyway.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdvdmedia.ign.com%2Fdvd%2Fimage%2Farticle%2F999%2F999563%2Fthe-running-man-special-edition-20090629053741894-000.jpg&hash=866dc0bce8d69320fbddfaab63b30bbae5bd8429)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 09, 2011, 01:36:57 AM
Get ready for the next round in the morning.  <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 09, 2011, 02:43:12 AM
With impending doom, is there no way I could open an account (to buy some stocks n' stuff online once the storm passes) in the US? Last fuckin' thing I want is to have my money on Hungarian accounts when we crash and burn. The government already nationalized the pension accounts, who knows what will happen to savings?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 09, 2011, 07:11:15 AM
I wake up, and things seem a bit more....stable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 09, 2011, 07:13:32 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 09, 2011, 07:11:15 AM
I wake up, and things seem a bit more....stable.

They are waiting for the regular "everything is under control" speech from Bernanke, to rally. Then crash again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 09, 2011, 07:15:24 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 09, 2011, 07:13:32 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 09, 2011, 07:11:15 AM
I wake up, and things seem a bit more....stable.

They are waiting for the regular "everything is under control" speech from Bernanke, to rally. Then crash again.

I bet 6 quatloos it stays positive today. Of course, I'm not putting anything into this market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on August 09, 2011, 07:21:04 AM
Europe is beginning to show some signs this tumble may be deccelerating. London, Paris and several other indices are in the green, and DAX is down "only" by 1.5%. Only Russia seems to continue tumbling down, with a 5% loss today.

Warsaw is minus 3.2. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on August 09, 2011, 07:21:35 AM
Crap, FTSE just went into red again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 09, 2011, 07:26:32 AM
Relax, everything major happens in the US. European markets are just copycats almost all the time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on August 09, 2011, 07:38:07 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 09, 2011, 07:26:32 AM
Relax, everything major happens in the US. European markets are just copycats almost all the time.

Actually, no. I don't think the last few days are a result of a rational downturn in the economy. So what matters is not what is really happening, but the perception. Having Europe as a sort of green haven among the world of storms will mean investors will not withdraw money from (say) Poland (I know it makes little sense, but yeah they tend to look at the entire Europe as one), which is good for my job.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 09, 2011, 07:41:54 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 09, 2011, 07:38:07 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 09, 2011, 07:26:32 AM
Relax, everything major happens in the US. European markets are just copycats almost all the time.

Actually, no. I don't think the last few days are a result of a rational downturn in the economy. So what matters is not what is really happening, but the perception. Having Europe as a sort of green haven among the world of storms will mean investors will not withdraw money from (say) Poland (I know it makes little sense, but yeah they tend to look at the entire Europe as one), which is good for my job.

What I am saying is that it is pointless to see things into what is happening today by the hour. The federal bank's prez will speak tonight. The markets will react positively, unless Bernake thinks it is time to let it fall, then markets will resume loitering, until some other predictable bad news make them fall.

I saw this happening a lot of time in recent years. The "fed speech stops the fall" thing is like clockwork. I guess the real fall will begin when this won't be true.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 09, 2011, 08:34:12 AM
Where did my crash go? I was just making a crapload of crash money and now it's gone. Boo.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 09, 2011, 02:38:18 PM
What's the most efficient way to short gold in the long term?  I'm thinking that buying puts in the gold ETF, like GLD, would be that, but are there better ways?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 09, 2011, 02:46:05 PM
You are welcome, Marty.

The only times my predictions are bad are when I actually put real money behind them, which I did not do this time.  :showoff:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 09, 2011, 03:10:07 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 09, 2011, 02:38:18 PM
What's the most efficient way to short gold in the long term?  I'm thinking that buying puts in the gold ETF, like GLD, would be that, but are there better ways?

That's the way I would do it. I made some trades with calls on GLD last week. I also had a pile of shares in it that I unloaded about two hours ago.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 09, 2011, 04:20:15 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 09, 2011, 07:15:24 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 09, 2011, 07:13:32 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 09, 2011, 07:11:15 AM
I wake up, and things seem a bit more....stable.

They are waiting for the regular "everything is under control" speech from Bernanke, to rally. Then crash again.

I bet 6 quatloos it stays positive today. Of course, I'm not putting anything into this market.

Huh. I am: great.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 10, 2011, 05:43:44 AM
I'm back in, but with only about half what I had invested before. It is in safe shares, you know, the ones that go down just like all the others when the market is tanking  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 10, 2011, 08:16:12 AM
I turn on CNBC, and see that French banks are getting punched in the balls.

My investing stance has moved from Calm to Mildly Spooked.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 10, 2011, 08:45:53 AM
If we could just keep the Europe markets closed for a couple weeks, we'd have an awesome rally.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on August 10, 2011, 10:16:25 AM
And we're back!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 10, 2011, 10:23:44 AM
I have a personal rule against shorting anything that I've only broken once, and I've never shorted an interest bearing instrument, however...if 10 year treasury notes go under 2%, I'm going to be tempted to short treasuries.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 10, 2011, 11:06:38 AM
So an informal poll: by month end, what are the chances we crash?

Condition 1: A one day drop of 10% or more?

Condition 2: We drop 20% from where we are now by the end of the month (S&P 500 is 1135)?

I think the odds are good if we get some bad news (such as a major bank failure, or a worsening debt crisis in europe).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 10, 2011, 11:29:22 AM
I'm willing to bet that there is no crash, with real money.  The bad shit always happens in September.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 10, 2011, 11:36:15 AM
I got some puts on silver just after it peaked a bit ago.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 10, 2011, 11:43:44 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 10, 2011, 05:43:44 AM
It is in safe shares, you know, the ones that go down just like all the others when the market is tanking  :lol:

But have juicy dividends that soften the market's drops?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 10, 2011, 11:47:54 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 10, 2011, 11:29:22 AM
I'm willing to bet that there is no crash, with real money.  The bad shit always happens in September.

:lol: If I can't make a caveat (such as I did in the previous post), I'd say the odds are less than 50-50. But I still think there is a significant risk of a crash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 10, 2011, 11:52:01 AM
The S&P's dividend yield is now higher than Treasuries.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 10, 2011, 11:52:19 AM
Quote from: citizen k on August 10, 2011, 11:43:44 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 10, 2011, 05:43:44 AM
It is in safe shares, you know, the ones that go down just like all the others when the market is tanking  :lol:

But have juicy dividends that soften the market's drops?

Yeah, British utilities that are yielding 6% and slowly increase their dividends year-on-year. Their price though is, to me at least, surprisingly volatile  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 10, 2011, 01:11:57 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 10, 2011, 08:45:53 AM
If we could just keep the Europe markets closed for a couple weeks, we'd have an awesome rally.


Once again, Europe closes for the day, we rally.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 10, 2011, 01:17:12 PM





Quote

South Korean Stock Broker Sends Apology Text Messages Then Jumps To His Death Amid Market Turmoil


World financial markets, which have been rocked by fears surrounding the U.S. economy and the ongoing euro zone crisis, pushed a stock broker who felt bad about his clients' losses to take his own life Wednesday.

A South Korean stock broker jumped to his death from a high-rise building after suffering losses amid global financial panic, police said.

From NBC Los Angeles:

"The 48-year-old broker, identified only as "Seo," sent text messages to colleagues expressing regret over severe losses, just minutes before leaping to his death Wednesday in the city of Daegu, according to Chief investigator Lee Kang-ho."

The stock broker sent text messages apologizing to his clients for the massive losses, the report said.

South Korea reportedly has one of the highest suicide rates in the developed world.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/south-korean-stock-broker-sends-apology-text-messages-then-jumps-to-his-death-amid-market-turmoil-2011-8#ixzz1UeQ46tiv

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 10, 2011, 03:32:49 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/there-is-a-guy-threatening-to-jump-off-30-rock-right-now-2011-8


(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic6.businessinsider.com%2Fimage%2F4e42ea5769bedd413c000000%2F30-rock-jumper.png&hash=db8e7ef83fbacac373e0e19ff1182976d4fb83fc)


Is it John Paulson?



Edit:
Quote
Pic via NBC's @Durrellojello who says: "Our office is mesmerized by this guy on roof of 30 Rock. Police seem to be trying to talk him down."

Gothamist reports he's on the 70th floor observation deck.  As you can see from the pic the FDNY is on the scene and apparently trying to talk him down.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 11, 2011, 04:48:59 AM
Things are looking bad for the Mauritian rupee :

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/mauritius-rupee-heads-for-three-week-low-to-dollar-on-france-debt-concern.html

:hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 11, 2011, 08:00:33 AM
So apparently, asian banks are reducing their loan limits for French banks, which are also extremely exposed to shitty European countries, and are now being punished.

Can this possibly be yet another fresh case of some serious shit-skeleton falling out of the closet? The french banking system? Really?
If yes, hello  $3 Ford stocks!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on August 11, 2011, 08:05:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 11, 2011, 08:00:33 AM
So apparently, asian banks are reducing their loan limits for French banks, which are also extremely exposed to shitty European countries, and are now being punished.

Can this possibly be yet another fresh case of some serious shit-skeleton falling out of the closet? The french banking system? Really?
If yes, hello  $3 Ford stocks!

Can't see this happening. The French government would intervene anyway. Societe Generale is not Lehman's. It's like Bank of America.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 11, 2011, 08:06:23 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 11, 2011, 08:05:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 11, 2011, 08:00:33 AM
So apparently, asian banks are reducing their loan limits for French banks, which are also extremely exposed to shitty European countries, and are now being punished.

Can this possibly be yet another fresh case of some serious shit-skeleton falling out of the closet? The french banking system? Really?
If yes, hello  $3 Ford stocks!

Can't see this happening. The French government would intervene anyway. Societe Generale is not Lehman's. It's like Bank of America.

Yes, after Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, there must be still a lot of free money laying around to bail out them bankers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on August 11, 2011, 08:08:55 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 11, 2011, 08:06:23 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 11, 2011, 08:05:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 11, 2011, 08:00:33 AM
So apparently, asian banks are reducing their loan limits for French banks, which are also extremely exposed to shitty European countries, and are now being punished.

Can this possibly be yet another fresh case of some serious shit-skeleton falling out of the closet? The french banking system? Really?
If yes, hello  $3 Ford stocks!

Can't see this happening. The French government would intervene anyway. Societe Generale is not Lehman's. It's like Bank of America.

Yes, after Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, there must be still a lot of free money laying around to bail out them bankers.

I thought only ECB has been bailing out Spain and Italy. The eurozone governments weren't involved.

At least Poland is not part of the Eurozone - if worst comes to worst, we can always devalue zloty to keep from defaulting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on August 11, 2011, 08:42:24 AM
Seems the American stock exchanges caused the European rally again. Warsaw indices are in green for the first time since the beginning of the week it seems, after being -2% for most of the day.  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 11, 2011, 08:51:40 AM
Quote from: Martinus on August 11, 2011, 08:05:31 AM

Can't see this happening. The French government would intervene anyway. Societe Generale is not Lehman's. It's like Bank of America.

If there are more bank bailouts in the US it will be a major shitstorm.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2011, 10:52:41 AM
I'd like to buy puts on Tiger Woods.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: 11B4V on August 11, 2011, 10:54:21 AM
Has Vegas started placing odds on the DJIA?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2011, 11:02:59 AM
Quote from: 11B4V on August 11, 2011, 10:54:21 AM
Has Vegas started placing odds on the DJIA?
That would be a highly stupid undertaking.  There are much more efficient ways to bet on the market moves, so bookies trying to compete would either have to charge too much juice to be competitive, or they would be arbitraged into oblivion.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2011, 03:48:40 PM
I wonder if the jumper had a better day today. I know I did.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 11, 2011, 03:52:26 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 11, 2011, 03:48:40 PM
I wonder if the jumper had a better day today. I know I did.

The LSE was up and down more often than a tart's knickers today  :P

I think I've bought some quality shares at knockdown prices this week; but in this market, as 11B4V suggests,  it does resemble Vegas rather than rational investing  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 11, 2011, 04:00:16 PM
I also dipped back in to the market too with my day trade account. And set up the sell orders so I can grab quickie profits if it goes sown tomorrow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 11, 2011, 04:29:12 PM
It's funny when mainstream news sites pick up minute-by-minute coverage of the stock market during times like these.
Like today:

"markets are down, the swiss frank is stronger, we are doomed!"
"markets are up, frank is weaker, optimism is abundant"
"optimism has faded, frank is getting stronger"
"we are in a free fall!"
"markets climbing back to the green again, the frank is weakening rapidly"
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 12, 2011, 05:31:17 PM
Short ban on banks in Europe in effect. Screw that, I still bought puts on Banco Santander.  :P

I eagerly await profits in fifteen days.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 12, 2011, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 12, 2011, 05:31:17 PM
Short ban on banks in Europe in effect. Screw that, I still bought puts on Banco Santander.  :P

I eagerly await profits in fifteen days.

That's probably the strongest of the PIIGS banks.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 12, 2011, 05:47:10 PM
Quote from: citizen k on August 12, 2011, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 12, 2011, 05:31:17 PM
Short ban on banks in Europe in effect. Screw that, I still bought puts on Banco Santander.  :P

I eagerly await profits in fifteen days.

That's probably the strongest of the PIIGS banks.

It's one of the best banks in the world. It's still going to get shit on though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 12, 2011, 05:49:42 PM
I bought 1000 BAC @7. Trigger sold them @7.25. Me get 250 dollar profit. Me happy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 12, 2011, 05:50:46 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 12, 2011, 05:47:10 PMIt's still going to get shit on though.

I could make a German scheisseporn joke here, but...

¡Viva España!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 18, 2011, 12:47:47 AM
Quote
SEC Insider Accuses Agency Of Destroying Records Of Wall Street Probes


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A Securities and Exchange Commission employee is accusing the agency of illegally destroying thousands of files pertaining to formal SEC inquiries into possible wrongdoing on Wall Street.

SEC enforcement lawyer Darcy Flynn alleges the SEC routinely destroyed the files as a matter of internal policy in violation of federal rules, according to a letter last month from Flynn's lawyer to Sen. Charles Grassley (R., Iowa).

Flynn, through his lawyer, says the SEC has trashed 9,000 files since 1993 on so-called "matters under inquiry," including inquiries into possible securities law violations at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Lehman Brothers, Deutsche Bank AG (DB), and hedge fund SAC Capital as well as Bernard L. Madoff's fraud.

Flynn also alleges that senior SEC officials lied about their document destruction to federal archives officials.

All the destroyed files relate to inquiries that were closed after SEC staff decided not to open a formal investigation.

Grassley sent a letter to SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro Wednesday asking her to respond to several questions about Flynn's claims.

"From what I've seen, it looks as if the SEC might have sanctioned some level of case-related document destruction," the senator said in a statement. "It doesn't make sense that an agency responsible for investigations would want to get rid of potential evidence."

SEC Inspector General David Kotz said his office is investigating the matter and will issue a report by the end of September.

Federal agencies are required by law to establish policies for managing their records with the National Archives and Records Administration. The SEC for years directed its employees to destroy all documents connected to matters under inquiry that never progressed to formal investigations. Last year, Flynn raised concerns with the archives office about the SEC's policy. The SEC subsequently backed off from instructing staff to dispose all documents collected during inquiries.

"Not every document that comes into an agency's possession in the course of its work meets the definition of a record covered by the retention requirements," SEC spokesman John Nester said. He added the SEC keeps track of all its inquiries, including what staff looked at, the reason why the inquiry was closed and a description of any documents collected.

The National Archives and Records Administration believes the SEC may have improperly destroyed federal records, according to a letter it sent to the SEC last summer after Flynn raised his concerns. The letter was excerpted in Flynn's attorney's letter to Grassley. A spokeswoman from the archives office didn't respond to a request for comment.

Rolling Stone magazine reported on Flynn's allegations and his discussions on the matter with Congress earlier Wednesday.

Formal SEC inquiries into potential securities law violations typically are either closed or ramped up into full investigations within days or weeks, according to people familiar with them. Files on such inquiries, therefore, don't usually contain a lot of important information, the people said.

Flynn, a 13-year SEC veteran, alleges that one of the destroyed files related to an inquiry into possible financial fraud at Lehman Brothers in 2002 and insider trading at the now-defunct bank in 2005. Other destroyed files concerned possible insider trading of credit default swaps at Goldman Sachs in 2009 and possible insider trading and currency manipulation at SAC Capital in 2006 and 2010, respectively. Three Deutsche Bank files were also allegedly destroyed, pertaining to 2002 inquiries into possible insider trading and market manipulation, and a 2004 investment-advisory inquiry.

Files were also destroyed of inquiries into alleged financial fraud at Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC), Flynn alleges.

Spokesmen for Goldman, SAC Capital, Citi, Wells, and Bank of America declined to comment. A spokesman from Lehman didn't respond to a request for comment. A spokesman for Deutsche said, "as a matter of bank policy we cannot comment on regulatory matters, particularly those that have been closed for nearly a decade."

-By Liz Moyer and Jessica Holzer, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2512; [email protected]


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 18, 2011, 01:31:18 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 12, 2011, 05:49:42 PM
I bought 1000 BAC @7. Trigger sold them @7.25. Me get 250 dollar profit. Me happy.

I have fifty puts on BAC @ 7. I hope the fuckers go to zero.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 18, 2011, 07:17:32 PM
Me today: 

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Flbcommuter.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F05%2FrageGuy2.jpg&hash=bff803e97d0a3d4e491e17ddbb48a7414019ba18)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 18, 2011, 07:23:53 PM
Yeah I know how you feel.  :lol:


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 18, 2011, 07:34:07 PM
:yes:

I was gonna pick some shit up, but it didn't quite get down to my limit orders.  I'm still extremely cash-heavy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 18, 2011, 07:39:10 PM
Also, Cramer pissed the living shit out of the Euro guy at CNBC this morning. Totally hilarious.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2011, 07:44:18 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 18, 2011, 07:39:10 PM
Also, Cramer pissed the living shit out of the Euro guy at CNBC this morning. Totally hilarious.

What were they arguing about?

I watched a fair bit of CNBC on my road trip.  I especialy liked that morning show when all six people yell at the same time.  Squawk Talk?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 18, 2011, 07:48:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2011, 07:44:18 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 18, 2011, 07:39:10 PM
Also, Cramer pissed the living shit out of the Euro guy at CNBC this morning. Totally hilarious.

What were they arguing about?

I watched a fair bit of CNBC on my road trip.  I especialy liked that morning show when all six people yell at the same time.  Squawk Talk?

It was during the 9am show when Euro dude interpreted Cramer's Euro bank talk(saying they are about to go through their '08 type situation) as telling people to sell Euro bank stocks and basically panic. Whiny Euro dude got pissy. Everybody in the US studio defended Cramer. Cramer said he is basically covering his ass.

Also the half-Korean chick is uber fuckable.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 19, 2011, 12:47:47 AM
Yesterday, I did: totally miniscule shorting of the SP500 and october oil, and celebrated my pocket change profits!  :showoff:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 19, 2011, 02:27:48 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 18, 2011, 07:17:32 PM
Me today: 

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Flbcommuter.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F05%2FrageGuy2.jpg&hash=bff803e97d0a3d4e491e17ddbb48a7414019ba18)

:lol:

Pretty much the same here. Though at least I sold out before the last fall from the FTSE from 6000 and bought back in around 5200-5300, with a smaller stake too. A lot of them are utility shares yielding 6% or more......odd that someone would prefer a bond yielding 2.5% to these..........oh well  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 19, 2011, 10:55:16 AM
Cashed in on HPQ puts I bought Tuesday this morning for a 257% gain. lol
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 19, 2011, 11:12:30 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 19, 2011, 10:55:16 AM
Cashed in on HPQ puts I bought Tuesday this morning for a 257% gain. lol

:thumbsup:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 22, 2011, 09:14:20 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcAXDc4Uz6Y
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 22, 2011, 02:58:46 PM
Lloyd Blankfein hired a defense attorney, and Goldman is tanking.



http://www.businessinsider.com/blankfein-hires-weingarten-2011-8
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 22, 2011, 03:04:02 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 22, 2011, 02:58:46 PM
Lloyd Blankfein hired a defense attorney, and Goldman is tanking.



http://www.businessinsider.com/blankfein-hires-weingarten-2011-8

Perjury related to what, anyone know?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 22, 2011, 03:40:51 PM
Nobody knows yet. In a way, that's worse for the investors. Everyone is probably guessing, and people have crazy imaginations. So the selloff. I missed that trade. I saw the tweet by ZeroHedge and then clicked in as fast as I could to buy puts. But by the time I confirmed the order the price of the puts had gone a hundred bucks past my limit order.  :lol:

It still kept going down after the close.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 23, 2011, 03:38:41 PM
Jeez, BAC is really melting down.  300 some basis points for CDS cover now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 23, 2011, 03:52:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 23, 2011, 03:38:41 PM
Jeez, BAC is really melting down.  300 some basis points for CDS cover now.


Yep. I'm still holding puts on BAC, so I'm completely happy. I sold a lot of calls today for ok profits and a couple things for marginal losses that I doubt are going to get any better. I'm holding back most of my cash as I raise it out of the gloom. Maybe I'll try to trade Bernank on Friday. Something will happen.

There is talk that BofA will need to be taken over by JP Morgan. Apparently Geithner had a talk with Dimon. I dunno. What will it be then... JP CountryStearns MutualAmerica?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 23, 2011, 03:58:04 PM
I don't see how that's possible.  Either BoA or Morgan is already at the regulatory limit for market concentration.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 23, 2011, 04:06:16 PM
That's a supremely good question. Also, in the last hour, JPM analysts upgraded BofA and also said they would need a capital raise.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08/23/660626/jpmorgan-says-bofa-may-need-a-capital-raise/

:huh:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 23, 2011, 04:15:48 PM
I'm a little tempted to make a short term bet on BAC's upside.  The only thing holding me back is the fact that I am the worst stock picker and timer in the universe.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 23, 2011, 04:57:43 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 23, 2011, 03:52:40 PM
There is talk that BofA will need to be taken over by JP Morgan. Apparently Geithner had a talk with Dimon. I dunno. What will it be then... JP CountryStearns MutualAmerica?

Too bad his #1 fan is no longer at the FDIC. Sheila take a bow, you boyfriend is Obama's favorite banker.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 24, 2011, 11:57:40 AM
BAC up 8% today.  Too late.  Maybe.

But oddly CDS is supposed to widening.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 24, 2011, 01:18:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 24, 2011, 11:57:40 AM
BAC up 8% today.  Too late.  Maybe.

But oddly CDS is supposed to widening.


You pretty much have to do those kind of things in an overnight trade. Buy before the market closes, let it move and then decide the next day what to do with it. The CDS does bother me, but Europe bothers me more. BAC has exposure to the hailstorms over there, so nobody knows what their assets are actually worth. Also, they write CDS contracts. So, if there is a credit event anywhere in the Eurozone BAC will have to pay out CDS redemptions. That frightens the crap out of me. The other stuff--lawsuits and such don't bother me.

I'm not trading any banks right now except some short-term puts here and there. Maybe a straddle play on Bernak's Friday thing.



Edit: If there is a good resolution to Europe's issues, I'm buying.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 24, 2011, 05:47:21 PM
Jobs resigns. Apple stockholders will FREAK THE FUCK OUT.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on August 24, 2011, 05:49:10 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 24, 2011, 05:47:21 PM
Jobs resigns. Apple stockholders will FREAK THE FUCK OUT.

:o :o :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 24, 2011, 05:53:35 PM
Sell sell sell!

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.seekingalpha.com%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F10%2F26%2Fsaupload_0205cramer.jpg&hash=46743b1f7d6908465ab4417caebc134135da7a4d)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 24, 2011, 05:56:44 PM
Cramer is calm on CNBC. "They have a strong bench".

We are now at the sports analogy stage.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 24, 2011, 06:09:11 PM
 :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 24, 2011, 06:11:08 PM
Holy fuck, down 20.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 24, 2011, 06:11:59 PM
S&P is down afterhours.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 24, 2011, 06:20:48 PM
Great, we just keep losing Jobs.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 24, 2011, 06:32:46 PM
Good news!  That turtleneck-wearing douche gave guys named Steve everywhere a bad name. :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 24, 2011, 06:36:03 PM
It's taking the entire Nasdaq down with it. Poor guy probably isn't going to live much longer. Of course, "Steve Jobs Resigns" is not nearly as bad a headline for AAPL as "Steve Jobs Dead". Best of luck to him.


Lets just hope Tim Cook doesn't turn out to be another Steve Ballmer.


@Guller  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 24, 2011, 06:37:49 PM
Quote from: Caliga on August 24, 2011, 06:32:46 PM
Good news!  That turtleneck-wearing douche gave guys named Steve everywhere a bad name. :mad:

You still have this guy!
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.techdigest.tv%2Fsteve-ballmer-hands.jpg&hash=3ed628ad1f0b4babecb80571642fd8f8b5da9378)


:lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 24, 2011, 06:38:05 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 24, 2011, 06:36:03 PM
Lets just hope Tim Cook doesn't turn out to be another Steve Ballmer.
:yes:

I don't trust guys named Tim.  :yuk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 24, 2011, 06:39:39 PM
I also still have this guy:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.amazon.com%2Fimages%2FP%2F0971024995.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg&hash=f2f14ca42bb677998bf5ee777f521acfc8329d77)
:yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zanza on August 25, 2011, 07:29:47 AM
So Deutsche Bank offers me a free depot where I can use a savings plan that would allow me to buy ETFs. I noticed that a few of the ETFs have no upfront cost and no management fee. How does Deutsche Bank even earn money on those?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 25, 2011, 04:02:37 PM
Quote from: Zanza on August 25, 2011, 07:29:47 AM
So Deutsche Bank offers me a free depot where I can use a savings plan that would allow me to buy ETFs. I noticed that a few of the ETFs have no upfront cost and no management fee. How does Deutsche Bank even earn money on those?

I would assume on the difference between the bid and offer prices.

BAC up another 8% today.  The Sage of Omaha has taken a position.  Window of opportunity: closed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 25, 2011, 05:04:00 PM
Must be nice to be the guy who can move the market with every fart he makes.  No wonder he holds efficient market theory in contempt.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 25, 2011, 05:14:41 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 25, 2011, 04:02:37 PM
Quote from: Zanza on August 25, 2011, 07:29:47 AM
So Deutsche Bank offers me a free depot where I can use a savings plan that would allow me to buy ETFs. I noticed that a few of the ETFs have no upfront cost and no management fee. How does Deutsche Bank even earn money on those?

I would assume on the difference between the bid and offer prices.

BAC up another 8% today.  The Sage of Omaha has taken a position.  Window of opportunity: closed.


It sagged back down again all day. I don't know if it can hold the Buffett Bounce.

I opened a straddle option trade on the XLF going into the weekend's Fed/ECB hoedown. I figure the banks will go somewhere. Staying flat is the least probable outcome.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 26, 2011, 05:34:42 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 24, 2011, 05:49:10 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 24, 2011, 05:47:21 PM
Jobs resigns. Apple stockholders will FREAK THE FUCK OUT.

:o :o :o

Wow. Not lookin good.


(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fll-media.tmz.com%2F2011%2F08%2F26%2F0826-steve-jobs-02pcn-credit-1.jpg&hash=d8ce420a018035b7cb207fba878c7e0bf17bc54b)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 26, 2011, 05:35:54 PM
Must be recess at Dachau in that pic.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 29, 2011, 12:08:47 PM
S&P bouncing around at 1200. I'm buying puts on it. I think when the 50day and 10day mv/avg converge in an hour and a half the machines will sell off. Teh speculation!!11
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2011, 12:40:19 PM
BAC up another 5 1/2 % today.

Just bought some BoA 10 year bonds paying 6.14 %.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on August 29, 2011, 01:00:47 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 26, 2011, 05:34:42 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 24, 2011, 05:49:10 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 24, 2011, 05:47:21 PM
Jobs resigns. Apple stockholders will FREAK THE FUCK OUT.

:o :o :o

Wow. Not lookin good.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fll-media.tmz.com%2F2011%2F08%2F26%2F0826-steve-jobs-02pcn-credit-1.jpg&hash=d8ce420a018035b7cb207fba878c7e0bf17bc54b)

Damn, that's sad; he looks in a lot of pain.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 29, 2011, 02:13:34 PM
Heads up: Ford workers have authorized a strike.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2011, 02:28:59 PM
 :frusty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 29, 2011, 03:51:01 PM
SocGen says we're just like Japan.


(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2Fuser5%2Fimageroot%2F2011%2F08%2FSPX%2520Nikkei.jpg&hash=05f66b7ad7a0b9cf0bca8fe2c361a7e2cf1349e5)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2011, 04:01:12 PM
The standard explanation for the Japanese lost decade is their banks never threw the wounded overboard.  They just kept lending into arrears because if they wrote off nonperforming loans it would have killed their capital asset ratios.  The US doesn't have that problem.

Anyway, what does Societe General know?  They're sitting on a trillion dollars worth of Greek bonds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2011, 04:07:33 PM
p.s. I hope your puts all blow up like the Hindenburg.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: ulmont on August 29, 2011, 04:16:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2011, 04:01:12 PM
The standard explanation for the Japanese lost decade is their banks never threw the wounded overboard.  They just kept lending into arrears because if they wrote off nonperforming loans it would have killed their capital asset ratios.  The US doesn't have that problem.

You sure about that, with respect to mortgages?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2011, 04:20:28 PM
Quote from: ulmont on August 29, 2011, 04:16:18 PM
You sure about that, with respect to mortgages?

I'm sure that US banks aren't lending new money to deliquent mortgage holders to prevent them from defaulting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 29, 2011, 05:36:03 PM
Picked up some JNK the other day.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 30, 2011, 09:12:14 AM
Consumer confidence 44.5% and we crash this morning. I got out of my puts with a 20% gain. Now I'm happy to see us float up the rest of the day.



Edit: FOMC meeting concludes with no easing decided. That seems to be what the market expected, because nothing happened.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 01, 2011, 04:20:43 PM
Looks like Netflix finally got hit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 02, 2011, 09:19:46 PM
The government is suing...everyone. Just about any bank in the world that matters. Yay.  :huh:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 03, 2011, 12:59:18 AM
I guess we know why BAC sold their soul to Warren Buffet...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 03, 2011, 04:01:40 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 02, 2011, 09:19:46 PM
The government is suing...everyone. Just about any bank in the world that matters. Yay.  :huh:

And once they have been sued and paid damages we can use more taxpayers money to bail them out  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 03, 2011, 04:04:46 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 03, 2011, 04:01:40 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 02, 2011, 09:19:46 PM
The government is suing...everyone. Just about any bank in the world that matters. Yay.  :huh:

And once they have been sued and paid damages we can use more taxpayers money to bail them out  :hmm:

funny because true  :lol:

I am rather heavily shorting the market (compared to my miniscule gambling funds) so I sure hope Greece goes official bankrupt on Monday or something.

BTW, why on earth are they still struggling to save them, when their one year bonds go for like 75% interest, and the 10 year bonds for like 48%? WTF?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 03, 2011, 06:43:51 AM
The Greeks need to default and get back to their Drachma, 10% inflation, constant devaluation and cheap holidays for the more thrifty and diligent part of Europe. It used to work quite well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 05, 2011, 04:56:08 AM
Sure glad I kept my SP500 and Stocks50 shorts during the weekend. It is fun to earn money on betting against the economy!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 05, 2011, 09:16:31 AM
muhaha, I took my my profits on the euro50 early in the morning when there was an upspike, but had to wager my pocket change on it again. It's like free fall is iminent/ongoing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 05, 2011, 09:24:16 AM
I turn on CNBC expecting their weekend/holiday programming and they are live from Europe down 5%. FUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCKKK.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 05, 2011, 09:37:41 AM
So what will happen tomorrow after the US open? Fade back to last Friday's levels, or collapse?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 05, 2011, 09:39:16 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 05, 2011, 09:37:41 AM
So what will happen tomorrow after the US open? Fade back to last Friday's levels, or collapse?

futures are down at least 200, so it is gonna be a shitty day.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 05, 2011, 03:36:45 PM
Yep. I'm way too long too. This blows. I'm trying not to think about it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 05, 2011, 05:23:13 PM
I laughed when Cramer when he said Euorpe's banks are undercapitalized. I ain't laughing anymore when IMF chick says it.

This shit is getting old.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 06, 2011, 11:54:41 AM
The good: I finally closed out my puts on BofA when I got up this morning. Nice profit. The only thing that consistently makes me money is shorting that fucking bank.  :P


The bad: When skynet tanked the market at the end of Friday, I thought it was a good opportunity to load up. Shortly thereafter, the "let's sue the whole world" plan came out. :bleeding:

(Do they have a team of dudes sitting around a table in Washington thinking"how can we make this worse?").

Anyway, I went long buying Phillip Morris, and calls on AMZN, AA, LLY, PEP, SLB and...GE. Yeah GE is on the list of the sued. Wonderful.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on September 07, 2011, 05:46:34 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 05, 2011, 09:16:31 AM
muhaha, I took my my profits on the euro50 early in the morning when there was an upspike, but had to wager my pocket change on it again. It's like free fall is iminent/ongoing.

What kind of money are you earning this way (on average), per month? I'm just wondering if getting a decent job wouldn't be a better solution. Unless of course you are in it for the gamble, but then I'd recommend a casino.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on September 07, 2011, 05:48:23 AM
My parents had (have?) a gun, but I never even considered it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 07, 2011, 06:50:07 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 07, 2011, 05:46:34 AM
What kind of money are you earning this way (on average), per month? I'm just wondering if getting a decent job wouldn't be a better solution. Unless of course you are in it for the gamble, but then I'd recommend a casino.

Derivatives probably offer a better return than a casino.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on September 08, 2011, 06:40:32 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 07, 2011, 06:50:07 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 07, 2011, 05:46:34 AM
What kind of money are you earning this way (on average), per month? I'm just wondering if getting a decent job wouldn't be a better solution. Unless of course you are in it for the gamble, but then I'd recommend a casino.

Derivatives probably offer a better return than a casino.

:hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 08, 2011, 06:48:54 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 07, 2011, 05:46:34 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 05, 2011, 09:16:31 AM
muhaha, I took my my profits on the euro50 early in the morning when there was an upspike, but had to wager my pocket change on it again. It's like free fall is iminent/ongoing.

What kind of money are you earning this way (on average), per month? I'm just wondering if getting a decent job wouldn't be a better solution. Unless of course you are in it for the gamble, but then I'd recommend a casino.

I wish this would be a question  :D

I have a very decent job. I am playing (nowadays) with a totally, ridicously miniscule amount of money which severly limits my abilities. But since I learned to keep within these limitations (ie. commission-free CFDs), it is a fun and exciting/frustrating hobby.And I am throwing darts at a board.

IF I had the capital, I would dig deeper into commodity futures trading, but that is not going to happen unless my daily job's salary dramatically raises.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 08, 2011, 07:39:37 AM
I noticed while the ECB frenchy guy was talking, the Euro stocks went down and the futures here. har.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 08, 2011, 08:27:51 AM
When is Obama's "I wanna play FDR!" speech?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 08, 2011, 08:46:46 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 08, 2011, 08:27:51 AM
When is Obama's "I wanna play FDR!" speech?

Tonight, 8est. I think. I'm pissed because it is gonna interfere with the Packers-Saints game. What a selfish fucker.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 08, 2011, 09:07:38 AM
I also regard my shares as being a rather interesting hobby. It's like a rather superior version of horse-racing and I'm delighted with the returns I have been getting. I don't do this shorting stuff mind you, bit too risky for my tastes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 08, 2011, 09:24:49 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 07, 2011, 06:50:07 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 07, 2011, 05:46:34 AM
What kind of money are you earning this way (on average), per month? I'm just wondering if getting a decent job wouldn't be a better solution. Unless of course you are in it for the gamble, but then I'd recommend a casino.

Derivatives probably offer a better return than a casino.
What's the juice on derivatives, if bought on individual level?  Derivative market doesn't exactly strike me as frictionless.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 08, 2011, 11:21:54 AM
I'm short SPY.


I think I might start my own hedge fund that only shorts the market when the President is on TV.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2011, 12:41:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 08, 2011, 09:24:49 AM
What's the juice on derivatives, if bought on individual level?  Derivative market doesn't exactly strike me as frictionless.

Not sure.  I would guess around $20 trade.  MIM?

There's no casino game where you can pay $20 to buy an even money bet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on September 08, 2011, 12:48:32 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 08, 2011, 08:46:46 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 08, 2011, 08:27:51 AM
When is Obama's "I wanna play FDR!" speech?

Tonight, 8est. I think. I'm pissed because it is gonna interfere with the Packers-Saints game. What a selfish fucker.

They better fucking wait.

Altho I don't mind missing the Ad-Kick Off/No return-Ad routine.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 08, 2011, 12:56:42 PM
Closed my short position following the drop that just happened.  20 puts on SPY for about $500 profit. Meh. That's a decent day's work. Maybe I'll short again if we get another bump.


I'm not really sure what Gully is asking there.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2011, 12:58:04 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 08, 2011, 12:56:42 PM
I'm not really sure what Gully is asking there.

How much is the commission on on options trade.  And/or futures if you know that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 08, 2011, 01:11:32 PM
Oh, it's $9.99 plus $.75 per contract for options on TDA (including multi-option trade like a strangle). If you exercise, there's a $20 fee.

http://www.tdameritrade.com/pricing.html

Futures - $3.50 per contract.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 08, 2011, 01:46:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2011, 12:41:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 08, 2011, 09:24:49 AM
What's the juice on derivatives, if bought on individual level?  Derivative market doesn't exactly strike me as frictionless.

Not sure.  I would guess around $20 trade.  MIM?

There's no casino game where you can pay $20 to buy an even money bet.
If you pay to get an even money bet, then you're not really getting an even money bet.  Paying the fees and bid/ask spread is equivalent to spotting the casino an edge in a bet.  In both cases, your expected return is negative.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2011, 01:50:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 08, 2011, 01:46:37 PM
If you pay to get an even money bet, then you're not really getting an even money bet.  Paying the fees and bid/ask spread is equivalent to spotting the casino an edge in a bet.  In both cases, your expected return is negative.

No shit Shylock.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 08, 2011, 02:16:01 PM
Well, it looks like I was a bit hasty covering my short. I should have listened to my own advice. Could have made a couple hundred bucks more than I did. My GLD calls are skyrocketing though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 09, 2011, 08:17:18 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fprofile.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhprofile-ak-snc4%2F50335_124721064983_2252_n.jpg&hash=e9de167b807654baaa0bf295661c4e242d3ddb36)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 09, 2011, 08:40:35 AM
GODDAMMIT
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on September 09, 2011, 10:07:08 AM
Unretirement?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 09, 2011, 11:26:57 AM
Man. I wish I had listened to my own advice and held my puts until after the speech.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 09, 2011, 11:35:09 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on September 09, 2011, 10:07:08 AM
Unretirement?

no.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 09, 2011, 11:35:26 AM
Sadly they fucked up my shorts earlier this week, so this dive-bombing is only enough to cover those losses.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 09, 2011, 11:53:44 AM
BTW I am planning to keep my SP500 short on for the weekend. Just in case an anniversary terror plot succeeds :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 09, 2011, 12:01:40 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 09, 2011, 11:53:44 AM
BTW I am planning to keep my SP500 short on for the weekend. Just in case an anniversary terror plot succeeds :P

You might see a patriotic bounce if the shit hits the fan.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 09, 2011, 12:02:40 PM
I think we're going to drift a little up. I'm trying a small daytrade with SPY calls.





Greece says they are going to be able to fully implement their bailout agreement and will definitely not default.  :shutup:



Edit: And just like that, one of the Fed's peeps says QE3 would be a good idea. Here we go.  :lol:


Edit2: Calls keep flirting with stopping out at the breakeven point. Float over. I'm selling them before the close in any case.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 12, 2011, 07:09:23 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 09, 2011, 08:17:18 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fprofile.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhprofile-ak-snc4%2F50335_124721064983_2252_n.jpg&hash=e9de167b807654baaa0bf295661c4e242d3ddb36)

rinse, repeat.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 12, 2011, 07:25:13 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbrightgreenshoots.co.uk%2Findex1%2FContact_files%2Fshapeimage_3.png&hash=5a8e552f2d755d069b8d4d237f36f1b4957baf8b)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 12, 2011, 10:39:52 AM
I need to seriously stop turning on CNBC after I wake up.

My progression this morning:

:sleep:
:glare:
:yucky:
:wacko:
:hmm: (Notices NetLogic up a lot)
:menace: (Remembers I own NetLogic long-term)
:cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 15, 2011, 04:15:52 PM
Mono, I sincerely hope you got out of RIMM when I called it a corpse. They just got killed in the after-market off their horrendous earnings release.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 15, 2011, 11:42:08 PM
http://www.google.com/finance/option_chain?q=NYSE:SPY# (http://www.google.com/finance/option_chain?q=NYSE:SPY#)

Look at the massive volume of SPY calls around the 117-119 range. Tomorrow is expiration on these options, and they're gonna get called. I think that probably means the market will be hell-bent on closing below 119 on SPY and whatever that equates to on the Dow. Roughly down about the amount we were up today. It would have to be some pretty huge forces pushing higher to prevent it. Not a prediction, just a speculative guess.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 16, 2011, 01:12:26 AM
My SP500 shortings has been assraped lately, in my vague attempts to find a top before the upcoming Greek default announcement.

The coordinated USD-lending by various central banks announced yesterday, I think, indicates that Greek default is coming.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habsburg on September 16, 2011, 01:22:21 AM
Greek default should not pull us down.  Portugal or Ireland probably not either (all three might not be great.)

Should contagion spread to Italy or Spain, problems.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.awardsdailyforums.com%2Fimages%2Fsmilies%2Fcontagion.jpg&hash=a6aa9b9107f1639f5dd4b55dde1cdda8e3e83385)

However the players seem to be coming together on the issue?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 16, 2011, 08:44:59 AM
OK, people, fess up, who taught Habsburg how to show images in posts?  Don't be afraid, I promise that your execution won't be summary.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 16, 2011, 02:55:44 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 16, 2011, 08:44:59 AM
OK, people, fess up, who taught Habsburg how to show images in posts?  Don't be afraid, I promise that your execution won't be summary.  :)

Be thankful I haven't joined in with more animated gifs. Pony .gifs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 16, 2011, 03:24:47 PM
I'm signing up for the CNBC million dollar portfolio challenge. Starts Monday. Should be fun to shed most safety plays and just go balls to the wall. I imagine playing super risky would be the way to win a thing like this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 16, 2011, 03:42:46 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 16, 2011, 03:24:47 PM
I'm signing up for the CNBC million dollar portfolio challenge. Starts Monday. Should be fun to shed most safety plays and just go balls to the wall. I imagine playing super risky would be the way to win a thing like this.
I never understood the point of that challenge.  The winning strategy seems to be the exact opposite of everything you want to do when investing.  To maximize your chances of winning the challenge, you should find one extremely volatile stock, and pour all your money into it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 16, 2011, 03:43:36 PM
What a buzzkill.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 16, 2011, 03:45:19 PM
I just find CNBC to be a representation of many things that are wrong in America, and this stupid game in particular is a good representation of what CNBC is about.  If killing buzz makes me a buzzkill, then buzzkill I am.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habsburg on September 16, 2011, 03:47:01 PM
CNBC has not been the same since Erin went over to CNN and Mark passed.  :(

I'm starting to watch Bloomberg.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 16, 2011, 03:47:37 PM
I watch CNBC to see if Cramer is going to have a stroke on the 9am show.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 16, 2011, 03:48:54 PM
Yeah, that's what I mean. You basically want to leverage yourself all in to 3x ETFs and other stuff that would be essentially seppuku in the real world to win the game. You get five different portfolios to do it in too. So, I'm thinking going 3x long the market in one, 3x short the market in another, etc. Maybe I'll have a portfolio where I trade whatever Languish decides. :p
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habsburg on September 16, 2011, 03:49:57 PM
Erin Burnett's new show starts on CNN soon (bye Jon King!) :mmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habsburg on September 16, 2011, 03:50:50 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 16, 2011, 03:47:37 PM
I watch CNBC to see if Cramer is going to have a stroke on the 9am show.

LOLz, or that nasty Michelle chick will slap him.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 16, 2011, 03:54:19 PM
Quote from: Habsburg on September 16, 2011, 03:50:50 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 16, 2011, 03:47:37 PM
I watch CNBC to see if Cramer is going to have a stroke on the 9am show.

LOLz, or that nasty Michelle chick will slap him.

Michelle...nasty? That is my future junior wife when I get the Utah compound built.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on September 16, 2011, 05:42:40 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 16, 2011, 03:54:19 PM
Quote from: Habsburg on September 16, 2011, 03:50:50 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 16, 2011, 03:47:37 PM
I watch CNBC to see if Cramer is going to have a stroke on the 9am show.

LOLz, or that nasty Michelle chick will slap him.

Michelle...nasty? That is my future junior wife when I get the Utah compound built.

I don't speak for Caliga but I think he'd approve.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habsburg on September 16, 2011, 07:16:16 PM
Have fun with that one, she is mean.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 16, 2011, 07:17:17 PM
Quote from: Habsburg on September 16, 2011, 07:16:16 PM
Have fun with that one, she is mean.

I can tame the wild beasts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on September 16, 2011, 07:31:03 PM
Quote from: citizen k on September 16, 2011, 05:42:40 PM
I don't speak for Caliga but I think he'd approve.
Who? :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habsburg on September 16, 2011, 07:32:32 PM
Quote from: Caliga on September 16, 2011, 07:31:03 PM
Quote from: citizen k on September 16, 2011, 05:42:40 PM
I don't speak for Caliga but I think he'd approve.
Who? :hmm:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.cnbc.com%2Fi%2FCNBC%2FSections%2FCNBC_TV%2FCNBC_US%2FBios%2FLee_Melissa%2FCover%2FLee_Melissa_new_240x250.jpg&hash=db3abc89603fc28ee333c9e882c2d954578d3a3d)

She beats up on her male co-anchors.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on September 16, 2011, 08:03:16 PM
Looks like a bitch.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on September 16, 2011, 08:07:45 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on September 16, 2011, 08:03:16 PM
Looks like a bitch.

If she works for CNBC that's sort of a given.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on September 16, 2011, 08:31:16 PM
Asians don't do anything for me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 16, 2011, 08:34:00 PM
Quote from: Caliga on September 16, 2011, 08:31:16 PM
Asians don't do anything for me.

Me neither  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on September 16, 2011, 10:06:38 PM
Quote from: Caliga on September 16, 2011, 07:31:03 PM
Quote from: citizen k on September 16, 2011, 05:42:40 PM
I don't speak for Caliga but I think he'd approve.
Who? :hmm:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffastcache.gawkerassets.com%2Fassets%2Fimages%2F7%2F2010%2F01%2Fmichelle_caruso-cabrera_6.jpg&hash=aa8d24bcf0faa623d93ab198adb3a445b16fb3f5)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 16, 2011, 10:07:54 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 16, 2011, 08:07:45 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on September 16, 2011, 08:03:16 PM
Looks like a bitch.

If she works for CNBC that's sort of a given.
You're thinking of stupid.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on September 16, 2011, 10:22:27 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 16, 2011, 10:07:54 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 16, 2011, 08:07:45 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on September 16, 2011, 08:03:16 PM
Looks like a bitch.

If she works for CNBC that's sort of a given.
You're thinking of stupid.

When ever I see CNBC I see raving jackasses.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 19, 2011, 02:48:13 AM
Metals traders are dying to use this current drop to load up. With the PCs tomorrow by Geithner and Obama, tomorrow is bound to be a down day. I went pretty heavily short SPY Friday at the close. I will be closing those trades most likely tomorrow. Certainly before Wednesday. Bernanke can rip your face off with a surprise beyond "operation twist" and we can go into a new bullish phase on both stocks and commodities. If that happens, I'm going back into silver, increasing my position in GLD and also taking some deep long calls going out maybe six months.


CNBC trading contest starts in the morning. I get five portfolios. I plan to make one each for bull market and bear market with as many leveraged ETFs as I can find. Another will be a Euro default portfolio, which will be short EUFN, euro currency and whatever else I can find betting on that. I may day trade with one. We'll see.


Edit: Although looking at the chart for gold, it looks bad...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 19, 2011, 08:46:57 AM
Wonderful open.   :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 19, 2011, 11:57:27 AM
For the game:


***Bear Portfolio-

Bought 15,000 shares FAZ.



***Bull Portfolio-

Bought 5000 shares TNA

Bought 4000 QQQQ

Bought FAS 2000

Bought AAPL 500




***Eurocrash Portfolio-

Bought 15000 FAZ

Shorted the euro with all of the margin I have available in forex.


I would never do any of this in real life.  :P



Edit: I'm trying to sell short Barclay's and Santander, but I guess I can't.

Added 5000 SH to bear portfolio.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 20, 2011, 04:02:52 PM
I'm selling the AAPL out of the bull portfolio--rumors of accounting irregularities, plus it was up big today.



In real life, I sold SPY calls from yesterday at the top and bought puts. Then I sold the puts near the close. So...can't get much better than that. Made about $5500 on those two trades together. woot. I also sold off my Apple calls and my whole position in McDonald's. All I have left is 100 shares of PM and a couple small option positions (January calls on KO and November puts on USO).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 21, 2011, 02:36:04 PM
Shorting AAPL here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on September 21, 2011, 02:49:08 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 21, 2011, 02:36:04 PM
Shorting AAPL here.

That sounds unwise.  New iPhone coming out in a couple weeks.  Short term I would expect a bump, not a slide.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 21, 2011, 02:53:46 PM
Damn. I was super-bored at work and wanted to see if I can scalp the DAX. Surely to the shock of many, I can't. So while I catched this nice fall after the Fed, I will close the day in the red.  :glare:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 21, 2011, 05:06:56 PM
BeetMaster: do not be conned by MIM's stories of massive day trading profits.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 21, 2011, 05:42:31 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 21, 2011, 05:06:56 PM
BeetMaster: do not be conned by MIM's stories of massive day trading profits.  :ph34r:

Sadly, some of my stories are of massive losses. A quarter of my portfolio were in short-term calls at the beginning of August.  :lol: Not doing that again.

I want everything to go back to where it is not necessary to watch the shit like a hawk anymore.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on September 21, 2011, 06:46:19 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 21, 2011, 05:42:31 PM
I want everything to go back to where it is not necessary to watch the shit like a hawk anymore.
GL with that, chief. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 22, 2011, 07:51:41 AM
Fuck it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 22, 2011, 08:45:26 AM
Quote from: Barrister on September 21, 2011, 02:49:08 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 21, 2011, 02:36:04 PM
Shorting AAPL here.

That sounds unwise.  New iPhone coming out in a couple weeks.  Short term I would expect a bump, not a slide.

Closed my AAPL short for a 500 dollar gain.   ;)     Edit: Should have held on for longer. The stock is exhausted.

That makes up for the losses in my PM stock overnight.  :P Doesn't the stress make you guys want a cigarette? Go on, light up.
I think gold is going to 1600. Unless more QE happens.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 22, 2011, 09:28:22 AM
I'm dipping my toe back in with my day trade fund.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 22, 2011, 10:49:31 AM
MIM, could you share your thoughts about why the gold price is likely to fall?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 22, 2011, 10:56:26 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 22, 2011, 10:49:31 AM
MIM, could you share your thoughts about why the gold price is likely to fall?


Weak euro and strong dollar=gold down. In a nutshell. I think no US easing to keep the dollar parity with the falling euro is bad for gold prices. Things could change if the euro finds a way to get stronger, but I don't think Europe wants that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 22, 2011, 11:01:36 AM
Ah, I see..........so the price could even hold in terms of euros.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 22, 2011, 11:51:17 AM
Yes.


Incidentally, even though I do think that, I'm going long GLD calls right now for the shorter term.


Edit: My USO puts are doing nicely. Gasoline is through the floor.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 22, 2011, 12:04:59 PM
Stopped out on GLD .  :lol:

Whatever. That was fast.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 22, 2011, 12:20:55 PM
My bear-side portfolio in the cnbc game is up $34,000.  :lol:


Edit: "Eurocrash" portfolio is up $53,000.  :P



Edit2: And that puts me in 8261st place. The current leader is up 161k. Wow. I'm not leveraged enough.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on September 22, 2011, 12:51:57 PM
I guess 1st place will go to a guy with an utterly crazy plan that just happens to turn out right; there being thousands of entrants with crazy plans, some of which will work out fine  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 22, 2011, 01:09:14 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 22, 2011, 09:28:22 AM
I'm dipping my toe back in with my day trade fund.

Made some money, decided I didn't want the stress and left the day with a nice little profit. Screw this crap.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 22, 2011, 04:15:57 PM
WTF was that crazy-ass move back and forth near the close. damn
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 22, 2011, 04:31:25 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 22, 2011, 12:51:57 PM
I guess 1st place will go to a guy with an utterly crazy plan that just happens to turn out right; there being thousands of entrants with crazy plans, some of which will work out fine  :cool:
:yes: That's the strategy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 23, 2011, 07:09:29 AM
This morning by the time I logged in, positive action seemed to fade. So I shorted the SP500 and the DAX.

God damn I was right or what. I wonder if this will become a real meltdown once New York opens.

I will have to stop fucking around with the German index however. It is just too big for the funds I am willing to risk on this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 23, 2011, 11:01:22 AM
Damn, look at gold.


:wizard:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 27, 2011, 11:09:10 AM
Okay, the metals crash came, and the prices I expected to see (Gold 1600, Silver 35 lol) got passed by quickly. Now gold's back up in the 1650 range but silver didn't make up the difference in that huge-er crash it had. Still at about 32. I'm not comfortable trading either atm, but gun to my head, I'd rather buy silver. Both have a month to go until comex expiration. As with everything else, it all depends on Europe.  <_<


The market couldn't keep the up open going so I'm shorting SPY here.


Edit: Crap. I really need to learn to set my stops wider. The old rules don't apply. I got stopped out on wavy fluctuation and now I'm at my daytrade limit again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on September 27, 2011, 11:43:41 AM
I may cash out of my AT&T position as it's up around 10%.  Looking for a good growth stock.  Ideas PLZ.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 27, 2011, 12:11:28 PM
Phillip Morris - PM

It's all the tobacco business outside the US. (Domestic is Altria.) This is the only stock I own in my trading acct.



Coke - KO

I have January calls on Coca Cola



Kinder-Morgan - KMP

Pipeline operator. They profit on volume moving through the pipes, not on the price of oil or gas. All the new shale plays are making these guys rich. It's a master limited partnership, so I only own it in an IRA. Big dividend machine.

Those are safe dividend growers.




For more spec stuff: If I had a ton of cash laying around, I'd be buying the shale drillers, especially Chesapeake for that find in Ohio along with Continental, Hess and maybe Whiting if I'm feeling lucky. Drillers need to buy drills and stuff, so Schlumberger and Halliburton. I own a big chunk of SLB in my IRA too. I'm looking into the guys planning to build the facilities to export LNG from North America. That's a very interesting future development IMO.


Different people know about different sectors, and you can kinda tell what I spend my time researching. I know jack about drug companies, for example. I like the valuation and yield on LLY though. I like the numbers on Alcoa an awful lot, but they seem to be repeatedly pounded by the market because of commodity prices despite being fundamentally an awesome stock to own. If some QE is announced, the reverse will probably be true.


Stocks I will not buy until something dramatic changes: MSFT, WMT.

To be fair to Ballmer Nation, if you want something predictable to trade: Set consecutive one-triggers-another orders to buy MSFT at 24 and sell at 27 repeatedly. :p




Edit: One more thing. AMZN has a P/E ratio of 101. That's just fucking nuts. Remember what happened to Netflix up in those levels? I'm staying the hell away from that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 27, 2011, 06:32:25 PM
Wow, that's just idiotic.  Investors seem to forget that while Internet entities may have networking effect and economy of scale on their side, they also have a tendency to be obsoleted almost overnight by an even better idea.  Assuming an unbounded growth given that possibility seems a little over-optimistic.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on September 27, 2011, 06:33:42 PM
Good call on PM.  I've been eyeing that one for some time.  Brazilians must die of lung cancer so that I may profit. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 28, 2011, 05:10:09 PM
I rode the Amazon tiger today and made a shitload of money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 28, 2011, 05:16:10 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 28, 2011, 05:10:09 PM
I rode the Amazon tiger today and made a shitload of money.

Get off before the tiger eats you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 28, 2011, 05:19:48 PM
I was surprised when I read in the FT that gold and silver crashed yesterday.

Bubble's a poppin', time to run away.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 28, 2011, 05:25:45 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 28, 2011, 05:16:10 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 28, 2011, 05:10:09 PM
I rode the Amazon tiger today and made a shitload of money.

Get off before the tiger eats you.

Got off just off the peak. I figured once the shiny wears off the Fire, it is time to get off.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 28, 2011, 06:18:42 PM
Read another article in the FT, this one about Berkshire Hathaway.  They're considering a stock buy back with the mountain of cash they're sitting on.  This means The Man doesn't think stocks will be dropping any time soon (otherwise he would hold the cash to snap up bargains).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on September 28, 2011, 06:26:59 PM
I reconsidered and I think I'm going to hold my ETR position and enroll it in DRIP.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 29, 2011, 04:46:15 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 28, 2011, 05:25:45 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 28, 2011, 05:16:10 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 28, 2011, 05:10:09 PM
I rode the Amazon tiger today and made a shitload of money.

Get off before the tiger eats you.

Got off just off the peak. I figured once the shiny wears off the Fire, it is time to get off.

222.44
-7.27 (-3.16%)


LOL

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 30, 2011, 10:26:04 AM
 :lol:



I had a sweet gain from a batch of puts I bought at end of day yesterday, but TDA/thinkorswim was down and I couldn't take my profits. Finally, they came back online, I moved my stop to lock in at least a little gain, and...well it triggered just as I was writing this. Bleh. That hiccup cost me about 80% of the gains on that trade. At least I didn't lose anything.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on October 01, 2011, 04:28:38 AM
Cool, didn't realize you were a TDA customer also.  What's that thinkorswim thing do anyway?  I keep saying to myself "I should check this out" but never get around to it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 03, 2011, 11:23:46 AM
Took me a while to get into it. Had to find time to sit around and watch the tutorials they have. It has so much going on it's a bit overwhelming at first. I like the live charting it does. The other tool, trade architect, is kinda nice for figuring out things like option spreads. Sometimes getting a look at a trade first makes you decide not to do it, so there's definitely value there. TOS is pretty cool for doing things like placing your stops along with the buy orders and things. I also like the newsfeed, oh--and they have a contract with cnbc to embed the channel live right in the platform without commercials. That's very nice.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 12, 2011, 06:08:46 PM
I'm back in black. Thanks for the shitburger Europe.  <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 13, 2011, 02:01:04 AM
SP500 almost touched 1220. Time for 1120 again next week.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 13, 2011, 11:27:34 AM
I'm short from yesterday afternoon. SPY puts which were not itm yesterday but opened itm today. So far so good. Watching TLT to see if it has a strong enough rebound to signal a reversal.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 24, 2011, 03:57:58 PM
NFLX down about $35 after hours...

It might actually be buyable soon.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 24, 2011, 04:04:03 PM
Holy shit! :o What the fuck happened?  Surely this isn't a reaction to the expansion of streaming services to other countries?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 24, 2011, 04:07:21 PM
Earnings guidance was bad. Basically they said European expansion was eating up all of next quarter's profits. Closed today at 118. Now bouncing around 85.


Booyah!

Quote
NFLX - Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Don't Abandon Ship
Netflix

Jim Cramer recommended:    buy
Date:    Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Price Then:    $266.91
Price Now:    $118.84
Return:    -55.48%
Jim Cramer on NFLX
Tuesday, July 26, 2011


The question is not whether or not to sell, it's whether the dip in the company's price is a buying opportunity. He said Netflix management has delivered time and time again, and it's unlikely that the company just shot itself in the foot by raising prices. Subscribers will not be leaving in droves because of a few dollars, he said. Netflix is extremely cheap. Given that the company just expanded into Latin America and will be conquering Europe soon, Cramer said Netflix is still a buy.

thestreet.com
Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Don't Abandon Ship
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 24, 2011, 04:11:40 PM
In a little over 3 months, Netflix managed to lose 72% of its market cap.  That's quite an impressive destruction of shareholder value by any measure.  :thumbsup:  To be fair, though, the valuation seems to have been extremely insane to start with, so it was bound to crash sooner or later when the unrealistic growth expectations would not pan out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 24, 2011, 04:13:26 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on October 24, 2011, 04:07:21 PM
Booyah!

Quote
NFLX - Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Don't Abandon Ship
Netflix

Jim Cramer recommended:    buy
Date:    Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Price Then:    $266.91
Price Now:    $118.84
Return:    -55.48%
Jim Cramer on NFLX
Tuesday, July 26, 2011


The question is not whether or not to sell, it's whether the dip in the company's price is a buying opportunity. He said Netflix management has delivered time and time again, and it's unlikely that the company just shot itself in the foot by raising prices. Subscribers will not be leaving in droves because of a few dollars, he said. Netflix is extremely cheap. Given that the company just expanded into Latin America and will be conquering Europe soon, Cramer said Netflix is still a buy.

thestreet.com
Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Don't Abandon Ship
:lmfao: 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 24, 2011, 04:54:27 PM
I'm surprised he has had time for Netflix, since he has been too busy recently sucking Apple cock.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 24, 2011, 05:32:17 PM
Nice to see the S&P back up to 1250.  Just a couple more bucks and I'll be breaking even on my purchase on the first day of the summer crash.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 25, 2011, 08:52:21 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 24, 2011, 04:04:03 PM
Holy shit! :o What the fuck happened?  Surely this isn't a reaction to the expansion of streaming services to other countries?

Part of it is the latter.
The other part is that Netflix revealed that its margins on the physical DVD business are 50% while the margins on streaming is 8%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 25, 2011, 09:09:10 AM
Tomorrow's EU meeting has been cancelled.

HIDE YOUR KIDS, HIDE YOUR WIVES!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 25, 2011, 09:29:01 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 25, 2011, 08:52:21 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 24, 2011, 04:04:03 PM
Holy shit! :o What the fuck happened?  Surely this isn't a reaction to the expansion of streaming services to other countries?

Part of it is the latter.
The other part is that Netflix revealed that its margins on the physical DVD business are 50% while the margins on streaming is 8%.
:hmm: Why again are they trying to let the DVD service collect dust?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on October 25, 2011, 03:05:44 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 25, 2011, 09:29:01 AM
:hmm: Why again are they trying to let the DVD service collect dust?

Presumably the people asking that question are the ones selling the stock . . .
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 25, 2011, 03:12:14 PM
Amazon's turn. Missed quarter. Down 30 pts in after hours already.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 25, 2011, 03:29:55 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on October 25, 2011, 03:12:14 PM
Amazon's turn. Missed quarter. Down 30 pts in after hours already.
but, isn't that obviously for their huge-ass orders of the new kindle lines?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 25, 2011, 03:35:51 PM
Product cycle spending may explain it, yes. One thing about AMZN is they don't have a huge margin on their profitability. They really have to make investments like this count.


Quote
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Amazon.com Inc. said Tuesday afternoon that earnings plunged by 73% in the third quarter as a sharp ramp-up in spending offset a strong surge in sales. For the period ended Sept. 30, Amazon reported net income of $63 million, or 14 cents a share, compared to net income of $231 million, or 51 cents a share, for the same period the previous year. Revenue jumped 44% to $10.88 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of 24 cents a share on revenue of $10.95 billion for the quarter, according to consensus forecasts from FactSet Research.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 25, 2011, 03:37:55 PM
Plus this.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fregmedia.co.uk%2F2011%2F09%2F30%2Ffire_bom.jpg&hash=590e1d92a228f9dfee390d531659a7e5e368e2d8)

Kindle Fire list price: $199
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 25, 2011, 03:42:16 PM
yeah but their market share is pretty solid, since basically they are the market. The Apple buzz is going to go only downhill from now on, with Jobs no longer showcasing the new funky gadgets, so Amazon can bite off a big chunk of the music sales as well I would guess, and online content in general.

if we werent in front of a major panicky sell-off due to the greek default, I'd buy and hold amazon here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 25, 2011, 03:46:20 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 25, 2011, 03:42:16 PM
yeah but their market share is pretty solid, since basically they are the market. The Apple buzz is going to go only downhill from now on, with Jobs no longer showcasing the new funky gadgets, so Amazon can bite off a big chunk of the music sales as well I would guess, and online content in general.

if we werent in front of a major panicky sell-off due to the greek default, I'd buy and hold amazon here.
Just because a company is solid doesn't mean that it can't be overvalued.  If investors think that a solid company is uber-awesome, and will eventually have a market cap of twice the world's GDP, there is a possibility of a stock price crash down the line.

I agree that Amazon is here to stay for a long time.  They have the brand name and the dominance in the industry where economy of scale rules.  That doesn't mean that no price is too high for them, though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 25, 2011, 03:47:01 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 25, 2011, 03:46:20 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 25, 2011, 03:42:16 PM
yeah but their market share is pretty solid, since basically they are the market. The Apple buzz is going to go only downhill from now on, with Jobs no longer showcasing the new funky gadgets, so Amazon can bite off a big chunk of the music sales as well I would guess, and online content in general.

if we werent in front of a major panicky sell-off due to the greek default, I'd buy and hold amazon here.
Just because a company is solid doesn't mean that it can't be overvalued.  If investors think that a solid company is uber-awesome, and will eventually have a market cap of twice the world's GDP, there is a possibility of a stock price crash down the line.

I agree that Amazon is here to stay for a long time.  They have the brand name and the dominance in the industry where economy of scale rules.  That doesn't mean that no price is too high for them, though.

fair point
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 25, 2011, 06:03:02 PM
Next victim:

CMG...no

PCLN...no


It's LNKD! LinkedIn with a P/E ratio as of today's close of 1317.88x.

They report on 11/3 after the close, so you still have seven trading days to short the fuck out of them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 26, 2011, 08:01:36 AM
HOLY SHIT MY AMAZON STOCK.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 27, 2011, 04:06:18 PM
Whoa.  Monster day in the market.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 27, 2011, 05:17:45 PM
I guess you blood-sucking short sellers are not as psyched as I am. :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 27, 2011, 05:25:29 PM
My profits are above where they were at the market peak in April/May, since the market is still down about 5-6% I am well pleased. I don't short btw, but have been selling and buying more than I would like due to the market conditions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 28, 2011, 01:12:07 PM
It's certainly been a good opportunity for people to average down their cost to purchase. Anyone who is doing cost averaging via regular 401k contributions, for example.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 28, 2011, 01:36:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 27, 2011, 05:17:45 PM
I guess you blood-sucking short sellers are not as psyched as I am. :lol:

I switched to being on the long side in time to save myself :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 29, 2011, 12:41:05 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 28, 2011, 01:36:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 27, 2011, 05:17:45 PM
I guess you blood-sucking short sellers are not as psyched as I am. :lol:

I switched to being on the long side in time to save myself :P

Me too. Shorting has been only good for daytrades the past couple weeks. And hedging.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 31, 2011, 07:28:42 PM
Oh dear. Looks like Corzine tried to save the company by "borrowing" 700 million from customer accounts to shore up trading losses. This isn't going to be good.  Sorry, MF Global. Chris Christie is too busy to clean it up this time. It's bankruptcy for you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on November 01, 2011, 05:18:56 AM
The Greeks are going to have a referendum on whether they should accept the various debt deals :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15533940

Interesting times, I have taken my profits and now hold only the dreariest of British utilities; I find this extreme volatility takes the fun out of it, I have kept my profits during it but suspect that was by good luck rather than good management.

At a guess the Greeks will reject the deal, which will lead to a default and a return to the drachma. Assuming that all that doesn't happen before the referendum can be held.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on November 01, 2011, 06:17:35 AM
Letting the people decide?  :yuk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on November 01, 2011, 07:55:35 AM
DAMMIT
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 08:38:15 AM
So, did Jon Corzine's firm embezzle customers' funds to trade with?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 08:56:26 AM
Oh, wow, just found an article that they didn't separate customer funds from investment funds.  That sounds like a cardinal sin by a broker, and I would be very surprised if it's not the kind of thing you go to jail for, despite white collar crime on Wall Street being largely legal.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 08:58:46 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on October 31, 2011, 07:28:42 PM
Oh dear. Looks like Corzine tried to save the company by "borrowing" 700 million from customer accounts to shore up trading losses. This isn't going to be good.  Sorry, MF Global. Chris Christie is too busy to clean it up this time blame teachers unions in a series of rants on youtube . It's just bankruptcy for you. Actually, it might be better this way.

An alternative take on events.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 09:00:04 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 08:56:26 AM
Oh, wow, just found an article that they didn't separate customer funds from investment funds.  That sounds like a cardinal sin by a broker, and I would be very surprised if it's not the kind of thing you go to jail for, despite white collar crime on Wall Street being largely legal.

There must be another side to this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 09:58:25 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 09:00:04 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 08:56:26 AM
Oh, wow, just found an article that they didn't separate customer funds from investment funds.  That sounds like a cardinal sin by a broker, and I would be very surprised if it's not the kind of thing you go to jail for, despite white collar crime on Wall Street being largely legal.

There must be another side to this.
What can it possibly be?  If you didn't play with your clients' funds, you should be able to produce them. 

I wonder how many times people do it, and get away with it, so no one even knows that they were freerolled?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 10:17:38 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 09:58:25 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 09:00:04 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 08:56:26 AM
Oh, wow, just found an article that they didn't separate customer funds from investment funds.  That sounds like a cardinal sin by a broker, and I would be very surprised if it's not the kind of thing you go to jail for, despite white collar crime on Wall Street being largely legal.

There must be another side to this.
What can it possibly be?  If you didn't play with your clients' funds, you should be able to produce them. 

I wonder how many times people do it, and get away with it, so no one even knows that they were freerolled?

It doesn't make sense. Assuming Corzine had something to do with this, why would a respected former governor with a high net worth resort to something like this?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 10:24:17 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 10:17:38 AM
It doesn't make sense. Assuming Corzine had something to do with this, why would a respected former governor with a high net worth resort to something like this?
I can think of many reasons.  He could've been very careless to start with.  He could've been overly ambitious, trying to build up his firm into the next big thing.  He could've tapped into clients' funds to shore up his capital after going overboard on making risky leveraged bets.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 11:08:51 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 10:24:17 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 10:17:38 AM
It doesn't make sense. Assuming Corzine had something to do with this, why would a respected former governor with a high net worth resort to something like this?
I can think of many reasons.  He could've been very careless to start with.  He could've been overly ambitious, trying to build up his firm into the next big thing.  He could've tapped into clients' funds to shore up his capital after going overboard on making risky leveraged bets.

I guess. He was CEO of Goldman Sachs and governor of New Jersey. It seems like he had a lot to throw away.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 01, 2011, 01:21:02 PM
IMO, he's going to jail. Can't see any other ending to it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 08:05:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 01, 2011, 01:21:02 PM
IMO, he's going to jail. Can't see any other ending to it.

CNN is reporting $600 million is missing. If that is true, and if there isn't an innocent explanation, this is a major fraud that should have some very long prison terms.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on November 01, 2011, 10:37:55 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 09:00:04 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 01, 2011, 08:56:26 AM
Oh, wow, just found an article that they didn't separate customer funds from investment funds.  That sounds like a cardinal sin by a broker, and I would be very surprised if it's not the kind of thing you go to jail for, despite white collar crime on Wall Street being largely legal.

There must be another side to this.


Quote

Now that the affdavit of MF Global COO Bradley Abelow has been filed, we finally get the (partial and quite watered down) inside scoop of just what the events were that brought the company to its knees, and what specifically were the precipitating catalysts that ultimately led to the Halloween massacre. The relevant part begins with section E, paragraph 33, on page 13. "As a global financial services firm, MF Global is materially affected by conditions in the global financial markets and worldwide economic conditions. On September 1, 2011, MF Holdings announced that FINRA informed it that its regulated U.S. operating subsidiary, MFGI, was required to modify its capital treatment of certain repurchase transactions to maturity collateralized with European sovereign debt and thus increase its required net capital pursuant to SEC Rule 15c3-1. MFGI increased its required net capital to comply with FINRA's requirement...." Read on.


Full affidavit:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/9.pdf (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/9.pdf)


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 04, 2011, 03:49:06 PM
 :P


Quote from: Kyle Bass
    He still owned stacks of gold and platinum bars that had
    roughly doubled in value, but he remained on the lookout for hard
    stores of wealth as a hedge against what he assumed was the coming
    debasement of fiat currency. Nickels, for instance.

     

    "The value of the metal in a nickel is worth six point eight cents," he said. "Did you know that?"

     

    I didn't.

     

    "I just bought a million dollars' worth of them," he said, and then,
    perhaps sensing I couldn't do the math: "twenty million nickels."

     

    "You bought twenty million nickels?"

     

    "Uh-huh."

     

    "How do you buy twenty million nickels?"

     

    "Actually, it's very difficult," he said, and then explained that he
    had to call his bank and talk them into ordering him twenty million
    nickels. The bank had finally done it, but the Federal Reserve had its
    own questions. "The Fed apparently called my guy at the bank," he says.
    "They asked him, 'Why do you want all these nickels?' So he called me
    and asked, 'Why do you want all these nickels?' And I said, 'I just
    like nickels.'"

     

    He pulled out a photograph of his nickels and handed it to me. There
    they were, piled up on giant wooden pallets in a Brink's vault in
    downtown Dallas.

     

    "I'm telling you, in the next two years they'll change the content
    of the nickel," he said. "You really ought to call your bank and buy
    some now."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on November 04, 2011, 03:56:00 PM
Quote"I'm telling you, in the next two years they'll change the content
    of the nickel," he said. "You really ought to call your bank and buy
    some now."


Pass.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: fhdz on November 04, 2011, 05:25:04 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 01, 2011, 08:05:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 01, 2011, 01:21:02 PM
IMO, he's going to jail. Can't see any other ending to it.

CNN is reporting $600 million is missing. If that is true, and if there isn't an innocent explanation, this is a major fraud that should have some very long prison terms.

He's resigned.

Also:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/03/rnc-calls-on-obama-to-return-corzine-contributions/?iref=storysearch

:XD:

I am sure few Republicans are returning Koch Bros. contributions despite the fact they sold a bunch of shit to Iran.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 09, 2011, 02:38:57 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on October 25, 2011, 06:03:02 PM
Next victim:

CMG...no

PCLN...no


It's LNKD! LinkedIn with a P/E ratio as of today's close of 1317.88x.

They report on 11/3 after the close, so you still have seven trading days to short the fuck out of them.

This post is worth $12/share so far.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on November 09, 2011, 10:52:47 PM
My million dollar portfolio challenge portfolio:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhome.comcast.net%2F%257Ehdkeckert%2Fmdpc_2011a.jpg&hash=369c870171de473d83ee8f3924cea5445f733838)


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on November 12, 2011, 12:08:15 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhome.comcast.net%2F%257Ehdkeckert%2Fmdpc_2011e.jpg&hash=d785b1468f68809ab68a0a2df7ac725c1325aaaa)


(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fhome.comcast.net%2F%257Ehdkeckert%2Fmdpc_2011f.jpg&hash=687d4cbaea1c225859f0491edea84b5c4ae3cd28)


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 12, 2011, 01:23:42 AM
Not bad. My game accounts got zeroed out by the cheating incident, but I don't think I ever got as high as that. It was in the eleven thousand range.

My "short the euro" portfolio was doing very well though.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on November 12, 2011, 04:01:32 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 12, 2011, 01:23:42 AM
Not bad. My game accounts got zeroed out by the cheating incident, but I don't think I ever got as high as that. It was in the eleven thousand range.

My "short the euro" portfolio was doing very well though.  :(

That's what sucks about these contests. Someone tries to cheat and ends up ruining it for everybody.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2011, 06:52:00 PM
Buffet bought stakes in Intel, IBM, and DirectTV.  Or Dish, I can never keep them seperate.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 17, 2011, 06:39:53 PM
I'm thinking about shorting treasury bonds. The 30 year just went under 3% yield. Does anyone have ideas on the best way to do this?

I'm thinking about shorting the long term bond fund at Vanguard (EDV). There are some short bond funds out there, but EDV is transparent regarding what is in it, so I can see what I'm getting into.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2011, 08:24:48 PM
No.  Never heard of bond options or futures, and short-selling is not an option for retail traders/investors I don't think.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 17, 2011, 08:53:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2011, 08:24:48 PM
No.  Never heard of bond options or futures, and short-selling is not an option for retail traders/investors I don't think.

There are a variety of derivatives out there to hedge or speculate on interest rate changes, but I don't know to what extent these are available to retail investors (I've never touched them).

I've shorted stock before--average joe can do that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2011, 08:55:54 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 17, 2011, 08:53:58 PM
I've shorted stock before--average joe can do that.

Are you talking about buying puts, or are you talking about paying to borrow stock and then dumping it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 17, 2011, 09:15:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2011, 08:55:54 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 17, 2011, 08:53:58 PM
I've shorted stock before--average joe can do that.

Are you talking about buying puts, or are you talking about paying to borrow stock and then dumping it?

The latter.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2011, 09:22:13 PM
Really?  I had no idea.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 17, 2011, 09:33:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2011, 09:22:13 PM
Really?  I had no idea.

It isn't a great thing, imo, because if your position goes negative you get hit with nasty margin interest rates (unless you have a lot cash the rates are high). Also if what you are shorting pays dividends (or interest payments in the case of a bond), you are stuck paying those.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 18, 2011, 09:35:24 AM
I'm going to bump this, because even though I only posted this last night, by this morning it is already off the front page.  :wacko:

Apparently Languish isn't dying in Europe.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 18, 2011, 02:57:57 PM
Short TLT.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 18, 2011, 03:31:07 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 18, 2011, 02:57:57 PM
Short TLT.

Any reason for TLT over EDV? (they seem about the same, except EDV has slightly longer duration, which would give me more interest rate exposure)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 18, 2011, 03:40:38 PM
Not really. I watch TLT because it seems to be a better indicator for the market and trades inverse to stocks fairly closely. So it's my favorite bond etf. It moves more.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 18, 2011, 04:06:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 18, 2011, 03:40:38 PM
Not really. I watch TLT because it seems to be a better indicator for the market and trades inverse to stocks fairly closely. So it's my favorite bond etf. It moves more.

Thanks MIM. Do you know of any derivatives that might give exposure to treasury rates and are available to retail investors?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 21, 2011, 01:28:48 PM
There is a new etf coming soon from Barclay's.

http://etfdailynews.com/2011/11/21/ishares-funds-files-for-ishares-barclays-u-s-treasury-bond-fund-etf/

Quote
The iShares Barclays U.S. Treasury Bond Fund (the "Fund") seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Bond Index.



No symbol yet.

It seems there is a lot of movement in the market anticipating higher rates now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 22, 2011, 01:53:36 PM
Groupon. :nelson:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 23, 2011, 05:26:22 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 09, 2011, 02:38:57 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on October 25, 2011, 06:03:02 PM
Next victim:

CMG...no

PCLN...no


It's LNKD! LinkedIn with a P/E ratio as of today's close of 1317.88x.

They report on 11/3 after the close, so you still have seven trading days to short the fuck out of them.

This post is worth $12/share so far.

Oct 25th open: $91.43

Today's close: $66


Difference: $25.43



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2011, 07:02:29 PM
Just heard on CNN that "dozens" of major banks got downgraded after the market closed today.  Expect carnage tomorrow morning.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 29, 2011, 07:45:18 PM
37 of them. Including Morgan Stanley, Goldman, AIG, Citi, Wells Fargo, BofA, RBS, HSBC, UBS, BBVA, Bank of New York Mellon, Barclays, and Lloyds.




Talk about dropping the hammer. Luckily, I ended today's session holding puts on SPY. Accidental good fortune. E-Minis look like they are down about five after hours. It had been seven, so maybe not super-bloodbath levels for the open, but not good.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on November 29, 2011, 07:56:59 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2011, 07:02:29 PM
Just heard on CNN that "dozens" of major banks got downgraded after the market closed today.  Expect carnage tomorrow morning.  :ph34r:
Why should that matter, unless there are some credit rating triggers in play?  Surely credit rating agencies don't possess superior analytic abilities when it comes to, well, anything?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on November 30, 2011, 03:34:54 AM
I have downgraded the credit rating agencies' credibility to EEE.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on November 30, 2011, 10:54:39 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2011, 07:02:29 PM
Just heard on CNN that "dozens" of major banks got downgraded after the market closed today.  Expect carnage tomorrow morning.  :ph34r:
yuo =incorrect. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 30, 2011, 12:05:15 PM
I lost money. Yi isn't entirely wrong.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on November 30, 2011, 12:38:02 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 30, 2011, 12:05:15 PM
I lost money. Yi isn't entirely wrong.  :lol:

Despite the beating I got, I will eye re-shorting tomorrow.

How significant is this top-6 central banks deal is, when the hype of coordinated action is taken off of it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on November 30, 2011, 01:02:07 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 30, 2011, 12:38:02 PMHow significant is this top-6 central banks deal is, when the hype of coordinated action is taken off of it?
Biggest intervention by them since Lehman.  How big that was I don't know :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 08, 2011, 01:45:29 PM
I have to admit, I'm surprised Corzine isn't taking the fifth.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on December 08, 2011, 02:33:14 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on December 08, 2011, 01:45:29 PM
I'm surprised Corzine isn't taking the fifth.

Isn't taking much responsibilty either.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 12, 2011, 12:43:44 PM
Fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 12, 2011, 12:44:16 PM
Motherfucking pus eating europeans
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 12, 2011, 01:04:34 PM
Europe has hijacked all markets with their rumors and delays. They release rumors about stuff just to see if the market will like it, then they deny the rumors or one of them refuses to go along. Same shit every week. Nuking them from orbit is starting to look appealing.



Nothing to trade on anymore. I took $350 worth of January 8 calls on UNG at .11 just in case there's a big snowstorm and natgas goes up a little. Or maybe Obama will outlaw fracking and the world will panic. Whatever.

Gold's chart looks like shit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 12, 2011, 01:06:13 PM
I dumped my gold when it last hit 1800/oz. I just couldn't take the bs anymore.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 12, 2011, 06:58:51 PM
Just got an email about a magicJACK IPO.  :lol:

That company really needs to get a less greasy spokesman.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on December 13, 2011, 08:56:01 AM
What day this week is the Zynga IPO?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 13, 2011, 11:45:25 AM
Thursday.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 13, 2011, 02:35:25 PM
And the fed says: nothing.


Crash
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 13, 2011, 03:27:04 PM
Oh lord this is wonderful. About damn time I played a fed day right.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on December 13, 2011, 03:58:28 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on December 13, 2011, 03:27:04 PM
Oh lord this is wonderful. About damn time I played a fed day right.

God damn I missed it!  :mad:
Shorted the DAX shortly before it's CFD's close, hoping to get a few bucks from the initial german reaction tomorrow morning, before the weekly "we are savered!" news hit the wires.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 14, 2011, 10:18:57 AM
This shit has gone beyond annoying.

Cramer this morning: THE EUROPEANS HAVE BLOWN IT! WARGARBLLLLLLLL
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 14, 2011, 04:43:13 PM
Gold is crashtacular again this week. Even the September crash didn't break the long-term up trendline that began in 2008. This time it poked right through that floor. I have to believe it will find some support soon, but people trade charts--and this one looks like it's supposed to go up to touch the underside of that line at 1650 or so and then fall very hard. So I think I'll keep avoiding it for a while.

Edit: If this a great buying opportunity, I'll miss it. But I don't like the risk.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 14, 2011, 05:07:12 PM
That Richard Quest dude on CNN was also a bit panicky today.

I'M BUYING CANNED GOODS AND SHOTGUNS
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 14, 2011, 05:21:21 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 14, 2011, 05:07:12 PM
That Richard Quest dude on CNN was also a bit panicky today.

I'M BUYING CANNED GOODS AND SHOTGUNS

He's a spaz.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 15, 2011, 01:29:31 PM
Quote
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department sold $12 billion in 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities on Thursday at a yield of negative 0.877%. Bidders offered to buy 3.01 times the amount of TIPS sold, the highest so-called bid-to-cover ratio since April 2010 and above the average of 2.6 times at the last four comparable auctions. Indirect bidders, a group that includes global central banks, bought 48.7%, the highest since October 2006 and versus an average of 37.1% of recent auctions. Direct bidders, a class that includes domestic money managers, purchased another 9.4% compared to 4.41% on average. After the auction, the broader bond market remained under slight pressure. Yields on 10-year notes, which move inversely to prices, rose 1 basis point to 1.92%, after earlier touching 1.86%, their lowest level since early October


We're sucking up all Europe's money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 15, 2011, 04:26:07 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 25, 2011, 05:51:46 PM


As for RIMM--It's a corpse.


RIMM missed earnings by a ton. It's dumping hard after hours.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 15, 2011, 06:19:49 PM
Good, I hate RIMM.  Fucking joke of a company.  "Co-CEOs"... get outta here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on December 15, 2011, 09:29:37 PM
Quote from: Caliga on December 15, 2011, 06:19:49 PM
Good, I hate RIMM.  Fucking joke of a company.  "Co-CEOs"... get outta here.

Didn't the Romans try that?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 15, 2011, 09:37:10 PM
 :menace:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 16, 2011, 02:23:34 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on December 13, 2011, 08:56:01 AM
Zynga IPO?


Down 8% out of the gate. Woo.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 19, 2011, 02:39:04 PM
Bank of America has been bouncing along at $5 all day. Somebody really wants it to stay above 5.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 19, 2011, 02:40:45 PM
This reminds me.  Fredo, you asked about shorting Treasuries.  A guy I work with (used to put retail customers in options, so not a bozo) said you can buy Treasury futures on the *comodity* exchange.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 19, 2011, 04:26:13 PM
I think I have 20 or 25 whole shares of Winn Dixie. I R 1%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 20, 2011, 04:56:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 19, 2011, 02:40:45 PM
This reminds me.  Fredo, you asked about shorting Treasuries.  A guy I work with (used to put retail customers in options, so not a bozo) said you can buy Treasury futures on the *comodity* exchange.

Quick futures symbol reference:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ftradeflight.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F12%2FmwDATR_2011-12-16.png&hash=dc3cd45e9a28ade7d075599014d0851500ac251a)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 20, 2011, 05:45:39 PM
Oracle crapped their pants and gave negative guidance. The tech spending world looks bad, so...what other companies are coming up on earnings announcements that might also be disappointments?

Calendar: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20111221.html

Hmm. Not much in the near term. Micron tomorrow.

F5 and Western Digital Jan 18th. AMD, Intel and M$FT Jan 19th.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 28, 2011, 03:43:00 PM
Can anyone recommend a German index fund with a low management fee?

I'm thinking of plopping my 2012 IRA contribution into Germany to take advantage of the low euro.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 28, 2011, 05:13:33 PM
This week last year, Jim Cramer announced that the best performing stock in the Dow in 2011 would be: Alcoa.

:lol:

AA YTD down 43%
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 28, 2011, 06:21:18 PM
Oh, Cramer.   :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 28, 2011, 07:07:06 PM
Why does anyone still care, in any way, what that moron has to say about anything?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 28, 2011, 07:07:58 PM
He entertains me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 29, 2011, 12:47:18 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on December 14, 2011, 04:43:13 PM
Gold is crashtacular again this week. Even the September crash didn't break the long-term up trendline that began in 2008. This time it poked right through that floor. I have to believe it will find some support soon, but people trade charts--and this one looks like it's supposed to go up to touch the underside of that line at 1650 or so and then fall very hard. So I think I'll keep avoiding it for a while.

Edit: If this a great buying opportunity, I'll miss it. But I don't like the risk.

It didn't have much of the expected bump.


(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-RyNCpHeb9iY%2FTvuGcZ9kCEI%2FAAAAAAAAT4M%2FU7xmvBBfMRI%2Fs640%2Fgolddaily1.PNG&hash=e6b12e32bc04137f539477d577c81e6a9ce353e8)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 29, 2011, 01:31:47 PM
At 1500 now?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 29, 2011, 01:38:14 PM
1540-ish


GLD just poking under 150.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 29, 2011, 01:45:39 PM
I was Googling gold price, and I came upon this site:  http://goldprice.org/ .  Reading through the titles of the guy's "analysis" was pretty amusing.  "If Gold Price Closes Over $1,800 Two Days Running, Don't Wait Buy Fistfuls ", from November 15.  :lol:

Financial analysts today must be what fortune tellers were hundreds of years ago.  Unfortunately, the world's economy suffers from the financial charlatans, whereas fortune tellers kept the damage contained largely to the fools they conned.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on December 29, 2011, 01:59:01 PM
Quote from: Caliga on December 15, 2011, 06:19:49 PM
Good, I hate RIMM.

Wouldn't it depend on whether you are giving or receiving?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on December 31, 2011, 05:08:01 AM
Apparently gold was about $2500 per ounce in today's money during the Middle Ages before the Spanish discoverd the Aztec gold. Although how they worked it out with a curency that didn't even exist before the late 18th century I don't know.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 04, 2012, 03:25:56 AM
Considering buying some amazon stock, appears to have dropped a bit the past few months despite strong growth and a trend that I would think can only go up....

Any thoughts from some of you gurus?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 12:38:26 PM
There was an article yesterday on seekingalpha that seemed compelling to me. It was a comparison between Microsoft 1999 and Amazon 2011. I've been staying away from MSFT for years due to the dead money problem. $25 a share for ten years. But they actually have been growing the underlying business through the whole decade, and now are at an under ten PE ratio. While Amazon is still up near 100. IMO, somewhere in the 10-15 range is desirable. I may have to rethink my MSFT hate eventually. Hmmm...not just yet though. Keep in mind the difference between the business models.



Edit: http://seekingalpha.com/article/317024-amazon-is-the-old-microsoft

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2012, 12:40:01 PM
Quote from: PJL on December 31, 2011, 05:08:01 AM
Apparently gold was about $2500 per ounce in today's money during the Middle Ages before the Spanish discoverd the Aztec gold. Although how they worked it out with a curency that didn't even exist before the late 18th century I don't know.

Convert it into a commodity or commodities first then back into dollars.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 04, 2012, 02:23:06 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 12:38:26 PM
There was an article yesterday on seekingalpha that seemed compelling to me. It was a comparison between Microsoft 1999 and Amazon 2011. I've been staying away from MSFT for years due to the dead money problem. $25 a share for ten years. But they actually have been growing the underlying business through the whole decade, and now are at an under ten PE ratio. While Amazon is still up near 100. IMO, somewhere in the 10-15 range is desirable. I may have to rethink my MSFT hate eventually. Hmmm...not just yet though. Keep in mind the difference between the business models.



Edit: http://seekingalpha.com/article/317024-amazon-is-the-old-microsoft

Thanks, interesting read.  Maybe I'll hold off.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 02:27:02 PM
Quote
@jimcramer Jim Cramer
Look, i own up when i mess up. I am furious at myself about $AA. I should not have stuck with $F. Nobody's perfect. I blew these, okay?


;)

People have been giving him shit on Twitter apparently.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 03:10:48 PM
Eastman Kodak filed for bankruptcy. EK down 30% today to about 45 cents a share. I always wonder why they don't go to zero. The common stock holder is last in a bankruptcy settlement. They were a big deal in Rochester when I was a kid. Sad.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on January 04, 2012, 03:20:41 PM
Wall Street's biggest banks expect the Federal Reserve's 0% interest rates to persist into at least 2014, and see better than 50/50 odds of QE3.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/01/04/big-banks-see-better-than-5050-odds-of-qe3/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on January 04, 2012, 04:51:19 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on January 04, 2012, 03:20:41 PM
Wall Street's biggest banks expect the Federal Reserve's 0% interest rates to persist into at least 2014, and see better than 50/50 odds of QE3.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/01/04/big-banks-see-better-than-5050-odds-of-qe3/

If UK bonds are a good proxy with bank rates then ours aren't likely to rise before 2015.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 04, 2012, 04:58:56 PM
I got the hell out of Chipolte. Ed's stock drop(of Chipolte) senses are going off.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 07:27:36 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 04, 2012, 04:58:56 PM
I got the hell out of Chipolte. Ed's stock drop(of Chipolte) senses are going off.

The one at the mall seemed pretty busy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 07:37:27 PM
Since I opened my Roth over a year ago, COST is still my strongest stock (making up for a lot of small losers), and will remain as one of my "I like the company, shop there a lot" dividend stocks (that's kinda the core of my purchase inspirations).

I picked up MSFT a couple weeks ago, and will probably add to it with this year's IRA contribution.

My other two winners have been PFE and SBUX, both (especially SBUX) have been good, strong dividend stocks over the last several months.  I just wonder how much more steam SBUX has, but they seem to be a strong, dividend-paying hometown company, so I'll probably hold onto it.

I haven't bought into AMAZ because one; the price and P/E ration is higher than I like, and I don't care for Bezos.

I had also bought AA, and got stung a bit, but they pay a dividend, so unless they're looking at bankruptcy, they'll just go into the "long-term" dividend-paying pile.

Also had a fair amount of SWHC that I sold for a small profit a month ago...wish I held it a little longer.

Though still need to research some other strong dividend stocks to add.


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 04, 2012, 07:48:48 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 07:27:36 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 04, 2012, 04:58:56 PM
I got the hell out of Chipolte. Ed's stock drop(of Chipolte) senses are going off.

The one at the mall seemed pretty busy.

My gut outranks your mall.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:52:23 PM
I don't think it's a good idea to invest in restaurants unless you want to invest in one of the well-established giants (e.g. McDonalds, Yum).  Restaurants usually operate on a grow-or-die model and as soon as they stop growing, they usually tumble and/or get bought.  I did successfully buy in to Famous Dave's about ten years ago and made a nice profit, but in general I'm very nervous about this sector given the nature of the restaurant business.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 07:54:49 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:52:23 PM
I don't think it's a good idea to invest in restaurants unless you want to invest in one of the well-established giants (e.g. McDonalds, Yum).  Restaurants usually operate on a grow-or-die model and as soon as they stop growing, they usually tumble and/or get bought.  I did successfully buy in to Famous Dave's about ten years ago and made a nice profit, but in general I'm very nervous about this sector given the nature of the restaurant business.

I don't have any restaurant stocks (I don't count SBUX), because Tilted Kilt is not publicly traded.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2012, 07:55:13 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:52:23 PM
I don't think it's a good idea to invest in restaurants unless you want to invest in one of the well-established giants (e.g. McDonalds, Yum).  Restaurants usually operate on a grow-or-die model and as soon as they stop growing, they usually tumble and/or get bought.  I did successfully buy in to Famous Dave's about ten years ago and made a nice profit, but in general I'm very nervous about this sector given the nature of the restaurant business.

Isn't getting bought usually a nice thing?

Tonto:  AT&T has spit out a 6% dividend as regular as a Swiss clock since I've had it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 07:55:40 PM
If inside the IRA, put in some reits for high dividends. My biggest gainer in 2011 was KMP by a lot. Kinder-Morgan. I did like MCD but it's gotten overvalued now too. People fleeing to safe things all over the place. I think the company is still strong though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 07:56:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2012, 07:55:13 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:52:23 PM
I don't think it's a good idea to invest in restaurants unless you want to invest in one of the well-established giants (e.g. McDonalds, Yum).  Restaurants usually operate on a grow-or-die model and as soon as they stop growing, they usually tumble and/or get bought.  I did successfully buy in to Famous Dave's about ten years ago and made a nice profit, but in general I'm very nervous about this sector given the nature of the restaurant business.

Isn't getting bought usually a nice thing?

Tonto:  AT&T has spit out a 6% dividend as regular as a Swiss clock since I've had it.

Yeah, I've been looking hard at AT&T.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:57:36 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 07:55:40 PM
If inside the IRA, put in some reits for high dividends.
I agree. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:58:31 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2012, 07:55:13 PM
Isn't getting bought usually a nice thing?
Not always, and if the stock collapses prior then you don't gain much.  OTOH I've always done well in buyouts myself...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 08:00:12 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:58:31 PMOTOH I've always done well in buyouts myself...

Well, you've still got those South American Christian phone apps to fall back on or whatever it was.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 08:03:05 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:57:36 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 07:55:40 PM
If inside the IRA, put in some reits for high dividends.
I agree. :cool:

I've got a fair bit in a REIT mutual fund, and have never been too impressed with the dividend...


You guys care to make any specific recommendations?  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 08:09:41 PM
KMP returned 33.52% for me this year. Still my favorite. Dunno about the timing. Might get a chance at a better price. Only own them in an IRA though IMO. They have tax complications otherwise.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 04, 2012, 08:33:50 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 07:56:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2012, 07:55:13 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:52:23 PM
I don't think it's a good idea to invest in restaurants unless you want to invest in one of the well-established giants (e.g. McDonalds, Yum).  Restaurants usually operate on a grow-or-die model and as soon as they stop growing, they usually tumble and/or get bought.  I did successfully buy in to Famous Dave's about ten years ago and made a nice profit, but in general I'm very nervous about this sector given the nature of the restaurant business.

Isn't getting bought usually a nice thing?

Tonto:  AT&T has spit out a 6% dividend as regular as a Swiss clock since I've had it.

Yeah, I've been looking hard at AT&T.

As long as you aren't trying to get service from them.   :yuk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 08:54:34 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on January 04, 2012, 08:33:50 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 07:56:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2012, 07:55:13 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:52:23 PM
I don't think it's a good idea to invest in restaurants unless you want to invest in one of the well-established giants (e.g. McDonalds, Yum).  Restaurants usually operate on a grow-or-die model and as soon as they stop growing, they usually tumble and/or get bought.  I did successfully buy in to Famous Dave's about ten years ago and made a nice profit, but in general I'm very nervous about this sector given the nature of the restaurant business.

Isn't getting bought usually a nice thing?

Tonto:  AT&T has spit out a 6% dividend as regular as a Swiss clock since I've had it.

Yeah, I've been looking hard at AT&T.

As long as you aren't trying to get service from them.   :yuk:

My cell service is AT&T...never needed service, but never had any problems either.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 09:01:52 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 04, 2012, 08:00:12 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 07:58:31 PMOTOH I've always done well in buyouts myself...

Well, you've still got those South American Christian phone apps to fall back on or whatever it was.  :)
:D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 09:08:51 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 08:03:05 PM
I've got a fair bit in a REIT mutual fund, and have never been too impressed with the dividend...


You guys care to make any specific recommendations?  :P
Are you only concered with yield?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 09:27:51 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 09:08:51 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 04, 2012, 08:03:05 PM
I've got a fair bit in a REIT mutual fund, and have never been too impressed with the dividend...


You guys care to make any specific recommendations?  :P
Are you only concered with yield?

Besides having great tracts of land?  :P

Growth is nice, but I'd tend to think with a REIT, yield is paramount.  But as I have said, I am quite a novice at these things.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 04, 2012, 09:58:10 PM
Take a look at: HCN, HCP, VTR, SPG, BXP, AIV.  I own/have owned stock in a few of these.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 05, 2012, 09:14:04 AM
Cramer on the those hoarding shows:

WHY ARE THERE DEAD CATS HANGING FROM THE CEILING?

Cramer at 9am: Amusing.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2012, 09:40:47 AM
Hoarding shows?  Que es eso?  Folks call in and compare survival rations and bunker floor plans?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 05, 2012, 12:00:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2012, 09:40:47 AM
Hoarding shows?  Que es eso?  Folks call in and compare survival rations and bunker floor plans?

Sometimes I wonder about you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2012, 12:06:21 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 05, 2012, 12:00:45 PM
Sometimes I wonder about you.

While you're wondering, tell me what a hoarding show is.  I have no clue.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 05, 2012, 12:07:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2012, 12:06:21 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 05, 2012, 12:00:45 PM
Sometimes I wonder about you.

While you're wondering, tell me what a hoarding show is.  I have no clue.

Shows about these folks:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compulsive_hoarding

Totally hilarious.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 05, 2012, 02:32:44 PM
I've been in uber-volatility mode since the summer. Most of my money has been made on overnight OTM straddle trades on the SPY. It's the only thing that's been consistent. Eurorumors and Bernanke have jacked with every rational plan I've tried to put together. The market only moves in overnight gaps. The damn chart has more stairs than an Escher painting.


Some of these questions have me thinking a little more long-term now. Thing is, I emptied most of my trading account which had built up significantly in order to buy some real estate. But I do want to go back to the build a thesis and then trade to a plan method. I'm way better at it.

Commodities all seem to be somewhat bullish, so maybe I'll start there. I do have a tiny position in UNG (natural gas--which has been the one commodity that cannot go up). I'm hoping for a snowstorm.  :lol:

But that's nothing serious. Just a lottery ticket.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 06, 2012, 06:37:07 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 05, 2012, 02:32:44 PM
Thing is, I emptied most of my trading account which had built up significantly in order to buy some real estate. But I do want to go back to the build a thesis and then trade to a plan method. I'm way better at it.
Meaning you bought some actual land as opposed to like stock in a REIT or something?  Interesting. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 09, 2012, 02:00:38 PM
Yes.

So now I've got a straddle with Jan 127 puts and 129 calls since thursday. What happens? The market hangs out at 128 for five days burning my time premiums. The market is a jackass.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 09, 2012, 08:09:53 PM
I've been thinking of buying some land.  I would like a big woodlot in Kentucky or Tennessee I can camp at and shoot my guns off as much as I want without anyone bitching. :)

The thing you always forget when looking in to doing that is that you have to pay property taxes, so it's like you're renting it even though you own it.  Damn government.  I want services without having to pay for them. :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 10, 2012, 12:33:55 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 09, 2012, 02:00:38 PM
Yes.

So now I've got a straddle with Jan 127 puts and 129 calls since thursday. What happens? The market hangs out at 128 for five days burning my time premiums. The market is a jackass.  :P


Okay that's more like it. My straddle went from being 30% in the hole last night to a 20% gain today with the calls going in the money. Whew.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 20, 2012, 05:07:30 PM
Put my 2012 IRA contribution into Schlumberger (SLB).  Stumbled across the stock while researching Haliburton.  I'm hoping for a big upside this year so I can flip it, in contrast to my typical buy and hold.

Fun fact: Schlumberger rhymes with Faberge.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Maximus on January 20, 2012, 05:12:25 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 20, 2012, 05:07:30 PM
Fun fact: Schlumberger rhymes with Faberge.
Don't know what Faberge is but we always pronounced it shlumber-jay
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 20, 2012, 05:14:34 PM
Quote from: Maximus on January 20, 2012, 05:12:25 PM
Don't know what Faberge is but we always pronounced it shlumber-jay

Faberge as in Faberge eggs.  The tzar?  Ocean's 13?  Octopussy? No?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Maximus on January 20, 2012, 05:32:33 PM
Nope, hadn't heard of them, but I have now. Thanks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 20, 2012, 05:37:39 PM
Should have jumped on Amazon when I had the chance, up 20$ a share since I was about to press the button.   :hmm:



On a side note, still in love with Intel.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 21, 2012, 09:12:56 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/20/us-markets-juice-idUSTRE80J11420120120

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fidiotflashback.files.wordpress.com%2F2010%2F02%2Ftrading_places_f.jpg&hash=42c2b1560c3bc87be27447cb4e8b6fd3a71c348e)

or....

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thehollywoodnews.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FTrading-Places-41.jpg&hash=77996ccad7ea6ca874fb3df2265333d227229f70)

:hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 23, 2012, 01:19:03 PM
I bought 200 shares of SLB for about $55 in 09. I still have them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on January 23, 2012, 04:33:21 PM
I wish I had money in '09. :(

Oh well. Just save and wait for the next crash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 26, 2012, 09:13:13 AM
I'm glad I bought Netflix after it crashed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2012, 09:45:31 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 26, 2012, 09:13:13 AM
I'm glad I bought Netflix after it crashed.

I was thinking about Netflix.  How much is up from its trough?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 26, 2012, 09:58:39 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2012, 09:45:31 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 26, 2012, 09:13:13 AM
I'm glad I bought Netflix after it crashed.

I was thinking about Netflix.  How much is up from its trough?

It was down to nearly 60,IIRC.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 26, 2012, 02:17:44 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2012, 09:45:31 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 26, 2012, 09:13:13 AM
I'm glad I bought Netflix after it crashed.

I was thinking about Netflix.  How much is up from its trough?

Cramer says avoid it. So this may well be the time to buy.  :P



Quote
Jim Cramer
jimcramer Jim Cramer
Avoid Netflix - http://ow.ly/8HoCI $NFLX
2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2012, 02:19:05 PM
I certainly don't see it as a long term hold.  You have to figure at some point in the future they'll get Blockbustered.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 26, 2012, 02:20:16 PM
@116? He's right most likely.

I know I made some cool cash off the obscene rise today.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 26, 2012, 06:19:51 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.optionmonster.com%2Fcms%2Fdrj_blog%2Fimages%2Fchart-of-the-day-iphone-activations-q4-jan-26-2012.jpg&hash=8b06d438e5602ed156edb672015e327c8b1f60bd)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: stjaba on January 26, 2012, 06:26:03 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on January 23, 2012, 04:33:21 PM
I wish I had money in '09. :(

Oh well. Just save and wait for the next crash.

I would think it would be better off regularly investing your money, then trying to "time" a low. Just like it's difficult/impossible to predict high in stock prices, it's difficult to predict low prices.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2012, 06:57:00 PM
Quote from: stjaba on January 26, 2012, 06:26:03 PM
I would think it would be better off regularly investing your money, then trying to "time" a low. Just like it's difficult/impossible to predict high in stock prices, it's difficult to predict low prices.

But then he's stuck investing in a mutual fund.  :yucky:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 27, 2012, 06:03:03 PM
Netfux is being sued in a class action suit by former shareholders.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pomerantz-law-firm-has-filed-a-class-action-against-netflix-nflx-2012-01-27
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 27, 2012, 06:27:30 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 27, 2012, 06:03:03 PM
Netfux is being sued in a class action suit by former shareholders.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pomerantz-law-firm-has-filed-a-class-action-against-netflix-nflx-2012-01-27


Ouch. But hey maybe you and I can get five bucks or something. I owned NFLX at some point during that time frame.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 27, 2012, 06:29:01 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 26, 2012, 06:19:51 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.optionmonster.com%2Fcms%2Fdrj_blog%2Fimages%2Fchart-of-the-day-iphone-activations-q4-jan-26-2012.jpg&hash=8b06d438e5602ed156edb672015e327c8b1f60bd)

almost as if a widely covered apple-related event gave a lot of free publicity for their products.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 27, 2012, 06:41:30 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 27, 2012, 06:27:30 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 27, 2012, 06:03:03 PM
Netfux is being sued in a class action suit by former shareholders.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pomerantz-law-firm-has-filed-a-class-action-against-netflix-nflx-2012-01-27


Ouch. But hey maybe you and I can get five bucks or something. I owned NFLX at some point during that time frame.  :P

A five dollar coupon off 1 NES game.  ;)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on January 28, 2012, 02:46:27 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2012, 06:29:01 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 26, 2012, 06:19:51 PM
[img]http://www.optionmonster.com/cms/drj_blog/images/chart-of-the-day-iphone-activations-q4-jan-26-2012.jpg[/img

almost as if a widely covered apple-related event gave a lot of free publicity for their products.

Indeed. I blame Steve Jobs. Many people emotionally bought iPhone 4S even though it was not a major revision.

However, iPhone 5 may come earlier around June, and it will indeed have a whole new form factor + 4G LTE connectivity. These people will have to upgrade. Luckily, I bought the stock around Thanksgiving, and my position is now up 20%. :) [/quote]
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 01, 2012, 09:17:45 AM
Amazon down 20 in pre-market.

My reaction:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fartfulwriter.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F02%2Fdog-whargarbl.jpg&hash=8668f06b5bbb10e373dfa69aaa20532c41a3e869)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 01, 2012, 09:50:00 AM
How come, any idea?  I've been considering picking  them up.


Edit:  Ah, didn't meet expectations.  Not sure If I should grab it or not.   :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 01, 2012, 12:59:07 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on February 01, 2012, 09:50:00 AM
How come, any idea?  I've been considering picking  them up.


Edit:  Ah, didn't meet expectations.  Not sure If I should grab it or not.   :hmm:


It's been drifting steadily upward all day since the overnight crash. Certainly it has believers. P/E is still 141, but hey.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2012, 01:02:06 PM
Amazon PE is at 141?? WTF??

MIM, *if* my SLB ever rises enough to flip, my thought is to sell puts on AT&T (since I wouldn't mind owning it).  I could use some hand holding from you on first ever options contract, if you don't mind.

Still a big if obviously.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 01, 2012, 02:02:40 PM
Quote from: Twitter
DougKass Douglas Kass
I am buying PBI now - just modestly raised its dividend to 37.5 cents/quarter - yielding 7.8%. BETTER THAN A MONEY MARKET FUND! $PBI

Douggie ranting on twitter. Pitney-Bowes has a P/E of only 10, yields a buck fifty and is currently trading at $19.20 a share. Some of you were asking about dividend payers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2012, 02:04:53 PM
Of course it's better than a MM fund, they're paying less than a percent right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 01, 2012, 02:28:18 PM
Selling puts is a great way to go, but the downside to it is you have to make sure you have the cash available to make the purchase if they get exercised. You can do significantly better than the dividend yield of the underlying security, and you get the money up-front. There is also the bonus if your brokerage account pays you interest on your cash holdings. Which makes the reserve cash not so much a problem. You earn on both the cash and the put premium.

Time is your friend in that situation. Go out several months in the future for the expiration to make it worth it. T February puts are selling for 8 bucks right now. Go out to October and it's more like 200 each for near the money puts. (Those seem to be the best ones, with the value increasing more slowly after that.) January 2014s are at 340. You get less for going nearer in time or farther away from the current trading price. Doing either of those things reduces the risk that they will be exercised, so duh.

Each one is a hundred shares worth of stock control, so keep enough cash to buy the stock at the strike price you choose x 100. So if you sell 10 T Oct 27 puts, you will need to have $27k of buying power if exercised. The cash you got from selling the puts counts toward that of course, in the case of the Oct 27, that would have been $1150 for the ten if you did it today (they are going for 115).

If the stock never gets down to your strike price, you keep the cash and can do it again. It's not a problem to do it in very small numbers of options either.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2012, 02:39:00 PM
Well, I would only have enough cash for 1, 2 at the most T puts, so it looks like I will have to go long-dated so the fee doesn't eat my premium.

Check my math for me.  T is paying a 6ish dividend right now, and 115/2,700 = 4.25 (plus the handful of basis points Etrade throws me on the sweep).  Not really sure if that's a winner.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 01, 2012, 03:13:04 PM
6%=1.5% per quarter. October is 3 quarters away, not four. So you're comparison should be against the 3 quarters of dividend (1.5%x 3=4.5%)

It's either that or 4.25% today + whatever rate you get from eTrade on your cash.

It's very close in this case.

If you don't mind owning the stock here, you might consider selling covered calls instead. Buy the T shares and sell calls against it to get a little more out of it. That way you collect the dividend as long as you hold it. You don't need to hold the cash then. The risk is that you might have your shares called away if your sold calls go in the money. T Oct 30 calls are selling for 130 right now. 31s for 84.

Owning 100 T and selling the 30 calls would get you the 4.5% over the three quarters plus (130/3000=4.33%) call premium = 8.33% as long as the calls aren't exercised. I would probably shave that a little, since the 30 strike is a bit too close for my comfort.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2012, 03:19:35 PM
That seems like maybe a better idea. 

Although I don't know about the riskiness of the 30 calls.  T price moves like a glacier. :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 01, 2012, 05:32:18 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 01, 2012, 02:02:40 PM
Quote from: Twitter
DougKass Douglas Kass
I am buying PBI now - just modestly raised its dividend to 37.5 cents/quarter - yielding 7.8%. BETTER THAN A MONEY MARKET FUND! $PBI

Douggie ranting on twitter. Pitney-Bowes has a P/E of only 10, yields a buck fifty and is currently trading at $19.20 a share. Some of you were asking about dividend payers.

Recommend this for a long term hold?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 01, 2012, 06:46:30 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on February 01, 2012, 05:32:18 PM
Recommend this for a long term hold?

I would based on the numbers I've bothered to look at, yeah. It's a great yield and low valuation, all other things notwithstanding. It looks like the kind of thing you add to the 401k and don't fuss over. PBI's business isn't one that I've followed closely though. I think I'll look them up on edgar (http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml).


Edit--More: http://seekingalpha.com/article/332622-an-almost-8-yielder-that-gets-no-love-from-the-market

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 02, 2012, 11:58:10 PM
I having been buying and selling positions in Zynga since $8. It was on fire last night! :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 07, 2012, 04:21:45 PM
Buffalo Wild Wings skyrocketed after hours today, but Panera tanked.  :hmm:



Edit: Panera's CFO quit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 07, 2012, 04:32:40 PM
I am getting tired of the stock market keep going up. Give me a crash. :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 07, 2012, 04:40:31 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 07, 2012, 04:21:45 PM
Buffalo Wild Wings skyrocketed after hours today, but Panera tanked.  :hmm:



Edit: Panera's CFO quit.

Panera needs to kick out all the bums who camp on tables with their laptops and don't buy anything.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 07, 2012, 05:17:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 07, 2012, 04:40:31 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 07, 2012, 04:21:45 PM
Buffalo Wild Wings skyrocketed after hours today, but Panera tanked.  :hmm:



Edit: Panera's CFO quit.

Panera needs to kick out all the bums who camp on tables with their laptops and don't buy anything.

I thought Starbucks cornered that market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2012, 11:50:18 AM
2/3 to 90% of publicly traded stock in Zynga, Groupon, and Linkedin are being used to short.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 08, 2012, 12:23:49 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2012, 11:50:18 AM
2/3 to 90% of publicly traded stock in Zynga, Groupon, and Linkedin are being used to short.
Let's bid them up. (https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.backupot.com%2FSmileys%2Fclassic%2Ffd59oj.gif&hash=a146ebdf981ebc55d06d736f20a958f18f9f9cff)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2012, 12:42:53 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on February 08, 2012, 12:23:49 PM
Let's bid them up. (https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.backupot.com%2FSmileys%2Fclassic%2Ffd59oj.gif&hash=a146ebdf981ebc55d06d736f20a958f18f9f9cff)

Go ahead and start without me. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: stjaba on February 08, 2012, 12:45:57 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2012, 11:50:18 AM
2/3 to 90% of publicly traded stock in Zynga, Groupon, and Linkedin are being used to short.

How do you find something like that out?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2012, 12:47:50 PM
Quote from: stjaba on February 08, 2012, 12:45:57 PM
How do you find something like that out?

Read about it on FT.com.*

A fine product of Pearson PLC.  Subscribe today and be in the know!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 09, 2012, 09:10:40 AM
On CNBC they are talking Greece and Cramer mentions they need a new Archduke Ferdinand in Europe to snap Europe out of the economic shit. LOLZ.

I love Cramer.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 09, 2012, 10:59:05 AM
If rumors of an Apple iTV are true, I may hold AAPL into 2013.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 09, 2012, 12:20:20 PM
What's MiM's sage take on Linkedin's coming earnings report?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zanza on February 09, 2012, 12:53:08 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on February 09, 2012, 10:59:05 AM
If rumors of an Apple iTV are true, I may hold AAPL into 2013.
Apple already has a product called Apple TV, what do you expect this new product to add?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 09, 2012, 01:19:46 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 09, 2012, 12:53:08 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on February 09, 2012, 10:59:05 AM
If rumors of an Apple iTV are true, I may hold AAPL into 2013.
Apple already has a product called Apple TV, what do you expect this new product to add?

Lots of rumours that Apple will produce an actual Apple-branded television.  The Jobs bio really stirred the pot when it quoted Jobs talking about televisions, that their controls / interface are terrible, and that "he had finally figured out" a better solution.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 09, 2012, 01:31:25 PM
The people saying this as positive news, have any actual idea about the kind of competition Apple would move against?

Internet-ing on your TV is soooo 2010, and the kind of LED TVs coming, boy, Apple would have a hard time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 09, 2012, 01:38:20 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 09, 2012, 01:31:25 PM
The people saying this as positive news, have any actual idea about the kind of competition Apple would move against?

Internet-ing on your TV is soooo 2010, and the kind of LED TVs coming, boy, Apple would have a hard time.

I want to sell the stock amidst the hype when it is announced. I personally seeing people transition to consuming video media via their computers, tablets, and smartphones. Then again, I also mistakenly assumed that the original iPad would only occupy a small niche.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 09, 2012, 01:49:50 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 09, 2012, 01:31:25 PM
The people saying this as positive news, have any actual idea about the kind of competition Apple would move against?

Internet-ing on your TV is soooo 2010, and the kind of LED TVs coming, boy, Apple would have a hard time.

Well the info we know is that Apple, if they enter the TV market, figures they have some kind of innovation with respect to interface.  A lot of the speculation is that it is going to be voice activated, ala the Siri feature.  Or, that you're going to use your iPhone/iPad to control your tv.

TVs are pretty heavily commoditized.  I'm sure Apple could get someone to manufacture TVs for them that are equal to anything on the market.  Their game is not to compete on specs anyways.

But in short - who knows?  It seem like an almost suicidal move - the TV space is awfully crowded.  But then again look at the cellphone market of 2007 - also a very crowded market...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 09, 2012, 02:16:23 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 09, 2012, 01:49:50 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 09, 2012, 01:31:25 PM
The people saying this as positive news, have any actual idea about the kind of competition Apple would move against?

Internet-ing on your TV is soooo 2010, and the kind of LED TVs coming, boy, Apple would have a hard time.

Well the info we know is that Apple, if they enter the TV market, figures they have some kind of innovation with respect to interface.  A lot of the speculation is that it is going to be voice activated, ala the Siri feature.  Or, that you're going to use your iPhone/iPad to control your tv.

TVs are pretty heavily commoditized.  I'm sure Apple could get someone to manufacture TVs for them that are equal to anything on the market.  Their game is not to compete on specs anyways.

But in short - who knows?  It seem like an almost suicidal move - the TV space is awfully crowded.  But then again look at the cellphone market of 2007 - also a very crowded market...

You can already control TVs with an iPad, or Android in case of Samsung. You have Toshiba TVs which have face recognition which apply settings linked to the person sitting in front of them.

You have oLED (or however you write it) entering the mainstream market this year with a revolutionary picture quality. You can already stream movies to TVs directly.

Of course, this is Apple, so if they showcase those features in a TV, the general crowd will go apeshit crazy-happy over these radical new interventions.
But the big manufacturers will not sell Apple their top-notch panel technologies and manufacturing capabilities I am telling you that.

I am kind of hoping for this Apple TV, because I am telling you I will set aside some money to short Apple after the initial boost of the announcement and keep the short for as long as I can, because if they go serious about slicing an opening on the top-TV market, it will be their downfall.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 09, 2012, 02:32:07 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 09, 2012, 02:16:23 PM
You can already control TVs with an iPad, or Android in case of Samsung. You have Toshiba TVs which have face recognition which apply settings linked to the person sitting in front of them.

You have oLED (or however you write it) entering the mainstream market this year with a revolutionary picture quality. You can already stream movies to TVs directly.

Of course, this is Apple, so if they showcase those features in a TV, the general crowd will go apeshit crazy-happy over these radical new interventions.
But the big manufacturers will not sell Apple their top-notch panel technologies and manufacturing capabilities I am telling you that.

I am kind of hoping for this Apple TV, because I am telling you I will set aside some money to short Apple after the initial boost of the announcement and keep the short for as long as I can, because if they go serious about slicing an opening on the top-TV market, it will be their downfall.

What the hell - I'll participate in an Apple hijack.

Been said many times that Apple rarely comes to market with a brand new idea.  But instead, they bring out technologies and do them better.

There's certainly room for improvement for TVs.  My tv remote for my samsung has enough buttons to fill a keyboard.  Then the add the remote for my cable-box, and my blue-ray player.  Then try to get them to all communicate with each other.  Then of course throw in my Apple TV (the remote is certainly different with its two buttons and a wheel), but it is still a hassle to switch between them all.

If Apple could invent a tv that scrapped all of those remotes, worked everything seemlessly through one simple interface, I think that would be worth a lot.

One other possibility - there are now thousands of iOS developers out there.  Presumably an Apple-branded TV would run off of iOS.  The biggest iOS selling apps are games.  Would an Apple-branded TV be an instant competitor to Playstation / XBox?

And Apple is sitting on almost $100 billion dollars.  TV manufacturers would eagerly sell screens to Apple.  And remember they wouldn't be selling technology - Apple doesn't manufacture anything these days.  Rather Apple would contract with them to build their tvs, so they're getting a cut of the action as well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 10, 2012, 10:09:56 AM
Market taking a beating, thinking about putting a stop order in on PBI which was recommended further up for high dividends.  It's tanking today on market news...

Thinking about putting an 18.45 stop on, if it hits cool, if not...oh well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2012, 10:12:00 AM
Quote from: Alcibiades on February 10, 2012, 10:09:56 AM
Market taking a beating, thinking about putting a stop order in on PBI which was recommended further up for high dividends.  It's tanking today on market news...

Thinking about putting an 18.45 stop on, if it hits cool, if not...oh well.

Not sure I see the logic of putting a stop on a *dividend* stock.  If news comes out that affects their earnings, then maybe.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 10, 2012, 10:13:23 AM
Not steep enough. Give us a crisis to cause a bigger drop, and then I will buy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 10, 2012, 10:30:10 AM
Haven't put it on while im still home, but it's still dropping quickly.   :shutup:

Maybe 18.10?


And I have a large amount of money sitting around collecting about 3 cents a month interest....Wanting to do *something* with it.  Feel free to give me ideas.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 10, 2012, 10:35:53 AM
wait for eventual greek collapse, and the needless overreaction by US stocks.

Buy some.


Profit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 10, 2012, 10:37:46 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 10, 2012, 10:35:53 AM
wait for eventual greek collapse, and the needless overreaction by US stocks.

Buy some.


Profit.
+1

Patience, Alcibiades. I also have large amount of money, waiting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2012, 10:38:14 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 10, 2012, 10:35:53 AM
wait for eventual greek collapse, and the needless overreaction by US stocks.

Buy some.


Profit.

I say go the other way.  The market is pricing in too much risk today, given the likelihood of a deal.  Put it all on bla...er, short dated euro futures.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 10, 2012, 10:47:21 AM
 :lol:

I, too, think they will end up bailing those goat fuckers out and everyone will be hunky dory.  But, if you guys really think I should show patience, I shall.  I bow to your wisdom.   :pope:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Berkut on February 10, 2012, 11:17:22 AM
Quote from: Barrister on February 09, 2012, 02:32:07 PM

There's certainly room for improvement for TVs.  My tv remote for my samsung has enough buttons to fill a keyboard.  Then the add the remote for my cable-box, and my blue-ray player.  Then try to get them to all communicate with each other.  Then of course throw in my Apple TV (the remote is certainly different with its two buttons and a wheel), but it is still a hassle to switch between them all.

If Apple could invent a tv that scrapped all of those remotes, worked everything seemlessly through one simple interface, I think that would be worth a lot.


Those are problems because the various manufacturers have traditionally refused to specify common interfaces for their various components.

How is Apple, a company notorious for refusing to participate in any common interface specifications, going to solve that problem?

Will an Apple TV talk to a Sony receiver and a Magnavox blue ray player and an XBOX better than Vizio does somehow?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 10, 2012, 01:22:18 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on February 10, 2012, 10:30:10 AM
Haven't put it on while im still home, but it's still dropping quickly.   :shutup:

Maybe 18.10?


And I have a large amount of money sitting around collecting about 3 cents a month interest....Wanting to do *something* with it.  Feel free to give me ideas.

It's a post-earnings dump. Don't worry about it. They beat estimates anyway. This happens a lot to blue chips.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 10, 2012, 01:25:39 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 09, 2012, 12:20:20 PM
What's MiM's sage take on Linkedin's coming earnings report?

I want nothing to do with it. That doesn't mean it isn't going to go to 120 before people figure out the valuation is nuts though. Current P/E on LNKD at 89 bucks is 653.74. How good are forward earnings? lol
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 10, 2012, 01:29:15 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 10, 2012, 01:22:18 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on February 10, 2012, 10:30:10 AM
Haven't put it on while im still home, but it's still dropping quickly.   :shutup:

Maybe 18.10?


And I have a large amount of money sitting around collecting about 3 cents a month interest....Wanting to do *something* with it.  Feel free to give me ideas.

It's a post-earnings dump. Don't worry about it. They beat estimates anyway. This happens a lot to blue chips.

Yeah I missed the dip, went down to 18.20, back around 18.90 again.   :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: stjaba on February 10, 2012, 05:52:25 PM
Quote from: Berkut on February 10, 2012, 11:17:22 AM
Quote from: Barrister on February 09, 2012, 02:32:07 PM

There's certainly room for improvement for TVs.  My tv remote for my samsung has enough buttons to fill a keyboard.  Then the add the remote for my cable-box, and my blue-ray player.  Then try to get them to all communicate with each other.  Then of course throw in my Apple TV (the remote is certainly different with its two buttons and a wheel), but it is still a hassle to switch between them all.

If Apple could invent a tv that scrapped all of those remotes, worked everything seemlessly through one simple interface, I think that would be worth a lot.


Those are problems because the various manufacturers have traditionally refused to specify common interfaces for their various components.

How is Apple, a company notorious for refusing to participate in any common interface specifications, going to solve that problem?

Will an Apple TV talk to a Sony receiver and a Magnavox blue ray player and an XBOX better than Vizio does somehow?

Another problem is that there is no profit in TVs. A few weeks ago, I read an article in the Economist that said TV manufacturers are making almost no money  in TVs because prices have come down so low. That's why right now they're trying to push 3d TVs, TVs with internet apps, etc. because they can sell those TVs at a premium.  But apparently, the next generation in TVs are doing so well.

I think another, related problem is that people are more price sensitive for high end TVs than for iphones and similar products. Apple's products are almost always more expensive than competitors. While customers may be willing to spring an extra $200 for an Apple cell phone, I bet they may be less willing to purchase an Apple premium TV for an extra $1000(or whatever).

That being said, an Apple TV that could interface with really well with Ipads/Iphones would be really cool. Also, I'm sure if Apple was going to come out with a TV, they would also come out with related accessories(or license it out to third parties). I'm sure the BarristerBoys of the world would happily buy Apple TVs, Apple blu ray players, Apple speakers, Apple HDMI cables, etc.  ;)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 10, 2012, 08:11:55 PM
I think they are going to try providing content and push Netflix and Amazon out of the way. iFlix. Preloaded on your iTV. iTunes too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2012, 02:05:34 PM
Check this out. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-china-economy-jobs-idUSTRE8170DY20120208)


Quote
(Reuters) - The annual average growth of China's minimum wages should be at least 13 percent in the five years to 2015, according to a government job market plan for the period published on Wednesday.

13 percent per year for 5 years. Short Wal-Mart?

I'm guessing US consumers will be bearing this cost.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2012, 02:13:04 PM
Also, my trading platform has triggered alerts on the volume of MSFT Feb calls today, and there are surely a lot of them being traded. Mostly ITM.


Quote

         MSFT

   Calls Calculator    

   Op Int    

   28.0 Call       2.62       2.65       2.61       0.13       252,196       60,759    
   29.0 Call       1.63       1.64       1.63       0.14       92,264       41,524    
   30.0 Call       0.62       0.64       0.62       0.08       4,824       68,136    
   31.0 Call       0.06       0.07       0.07       0.00       4,315       32,379    
   32.0 Call       0.01       0.02       0.02       0.00       120       2,352    
   33.0 Call       --       0.01       0.02       0.00       0       116

These expire in five days. I have no idea what it means. Either someone knows something, or is hedging a massive short position.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 13, 2012, 02:17:28 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2012, 02:05:34 PM
13 percent per year for 5 years. Short Wal-Mart?

Bad idea IMO.  Wages make up a tiny fraction of US retail goods.  Plus, they're establishing themselves in the China market as a trusted brand for food that won't kill you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2012, 03:29:05 PM
Pitney got downgraded by Fitch. The one caveat Kass (or was it SA?) mentioned on them is the debt. Looks like they've got a 17% short interest, and now yielding an incredible 8.11%. I took a look at that balance sheet, and I have to say the debt is pretty big. They are a little under 95% leveraged.

I haven't seen any upcoming problems on the financing schedule, and they appear to have been carrying a large amount of debt for years (http://ycharts.com/companies/PBI/long_term_debt). Their cash flow is acceptable even though I wouldn't expect much growth. The conference call gave guidance of plus or minus 2% for 2012. They even raised the dividend in the face of that. So caveat emptor I suppose. It's so cheap for that dividend I might buy some and just hedge it against catastrophe.




Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 13, 2012, 07:13:38 PM
Hmm... Guess I'll think about picking it up if it hits to around 18?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2012, 07:54:56 PM
Up to you. Like I said, I don't follow their business sector much. But if they do end up having to, say cut the dividend by 25%, you're still gonna be getting a 6% annual out of it. It's a long-term holder, not a trade.


Edit: I forgot to mention, it's rated "hold" by analysts almost across the board. It's an uber-vanilla thing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 13, 2012, 08:46:54 PM
Dammit, Moody's downgrades. I'm reviewing my triggers in case the SHIT HITS THE FAN.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 14, 2012, 02:10:54 PM
Quote
At least seven new funds from two different major ETF sponsors are scheduled to make their debuts tomorrow and six of those funds will be country-specific offerings.
Van Eck , the fifth-largest U.S. ETF issuer by assets, will roll out the Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: FRAK). That ETF will track the Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas Index, which was home to 43 securities of companies with a market capitalization range of between approximately $1.4 billion to $80.6 billion and an average market capitalization of $10.4 billion as of January 31 , according to a statement.
FRAK is designed to give investors exposure to companies involved in the production of coalbed methane, coal seam gas, shale oil, shale gas and firms operating in oil sands properties. The new ETF will have an expense ratio of 0.54%.
As Benzinga previously reported First Trust , the eleventh-largest U.S. ETF issuer, has plans to roll out seven new country-specific funds and it looks like six members of that group will debut on Wednesday.
Those new ETFs are the First Trust Australia AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FAUS), the the First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FKU), the First Trust Taiwan AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FTW), the First Trust Hong Kong AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FHK), the the First Trust Switzerland AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FSZ) and the the First Trust Germany AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: FGM).
All of the new First Trust offerings will have expense ratios 0.8% and all will compete with previously existing funds issued by BlackRock's (NYSE: BLK) iShares unit, the world's largest ETF sponsor.

Taiwan FTW!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 14, 2012, 03:08:53 PM
Quote from: Marketwatch
Apple would be $18,000 if it traded like Netflix
February 14, 2012, 9:18 AM

Bespoke Investment Group takes Apple's $500 price as an opportunity to consider how the tech giant is priced compared with other technology and retailing companies.

At $502.50, Apple is trading at 11.8 times expected earnings for the year.

By contrast, the S&P 500 is trading at 13.5 times forward earnings, on a weighted basis.

Bespoke also compares Apple's P/E with a selection of traditional tech stocks such as Intel, Cisco, and Yahoo. In those cases, the valuation of Apple ranges from $459 to $803, depending on which P/E you choose to apply.

Bespoke also compares Apple's P/E with Amazon's  (77.8) which would yield a price for Apple of $3,346.50 a share; and Netflix  (422.5) which would put Apple's price at $17,947.80.

11.8 is very cheap for a tech company. Although it could be argued that Apple is now a retail company.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 14, 2012, 03:22:06 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 14, 2012, 03:08:53 PM
11.8 is very cheap for a tech company. Although it could be argued that Apple is now a retail company.

Are they even retail? I assume a huge chunk of their earnings are the iPhone, which is  likely to face stiff future competition. They are a company with a great product that is going to be obsolete soon, and will be reliant on a great R&D department to sustain their current earnings.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on February 14, 2012, 03:34:59 PM
I'd say Apple are more a consumer electronics company these days than a tech one.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 14, 2012, 03:46:28 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 14, 2012, 03:22:06 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 14, 2012, 03:08:53 PM
11.8 is very cheap for a tech company. Although it could be argued that Apple is now a retail company.

Are they even retail? I assume a huge chunk of their earnings are the iPhone, which is  likely to face stiff future competition. They are a company with a great product that is going to be obsolete soon, and will be reliant on a great R&D department to sustain their current earnings.

iPhone will be king (even increased share) for at least another year. iPhone 5 will be a huge product refresh with bigger screen and 4G LTE connectivity (even though a record amount of fools bought iPhone 4s).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 14, 2012, 04:00:58 PM
I am getting tired of these late-day rallies. :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 14, 2012, 04:08:46 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on February 14, 2012, 04:00:58 PM
I am getting tired of these late-day rallies. :mad:

It's crazy. Wiped out the whole trading day in a heartbeat. I sold puts I was holding from the morning on the mini-ramp about noon. Thank god. Too bad I didn't try to play the main ramp though. Sometimes you can make great cash getting weekly calls around 12:30, catching the ramp and dumping them before the close at 1. Pacific time, obviously. That's 3:30-4 eastern. It's been less predictable since about December, but came in hard today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on February 14, 2012, 05:12:51 PM
I've got some shares in Aviva which aren't doing too badly at the moment, plus the dividend yield is great too (about 7%). Having said that I've put some money in the Footsie Super Short ETF thinking that the market was a bit top heavy and about to turn, which it hasn't yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 14, 2012, 07:05:23 PM
A share of AAPL stock now costs as much as the original iPod. If you spent that money on Apple stock instead, it would be worth $27,556 today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 14, 2012, 11:33:13 PM
Zynga Posts Loss in First Earnings Report: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577223523778815992.html
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.backupot.com%2FSmileys%2Fclassic%2Fyipi.gif&hash=fdbbb7f660d6d5517297aec7a5656151f08b7075)

Hopefully, it gets oversold so I can buy back in a cheap position.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 15, 2012, 11:54:57 AM
My Apple stock is up almost 40% in less than 3 months. :wacko:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 15, 2012, 12:55:52 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on February 14, 2012, 11:33:13 PM
Zynga Posts Loss in First Earnings Report: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577223523778815992.html
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.backupot.com%2FSmileys%2Fclassic%2Fyipi.gif&hash=fdbbb7f660d6d5517297aec7a5656151f08b7075)

Hopefully, it gets oversold so I can buy back in a cheap position.

This is a tough time to be shorting anything. Especially stuff related to the upcoming Facebook IPO. I think the bad Zynga quarter will be good for keeping Facebook from overheating out of the gate. They are something like 15% of Facebook's earnings. So yeah. Good dip.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 15, 2012, 01:12:04 PM
when is that IPO anyway?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 15, 2012, 01:31:42 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 15, 2012, 01:12:04 PM
when is that IPO anyway?


Not scheduled yet. They are on the "roadshow". If I had to guess it will happen before the end of May.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 15, 2012, 04:39:53 PM
AAPL started the day about 510, went to 525, and then tanked to just under 500. That's a total move in market cap over the course of today of almost 40billion. Or a little over two times the entire worth of Yahoo. This thing is the tail that wags the Nasdaq.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 15, 2012, 04:42:46 PM
I got my profits at least.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 15, 2012, 04:44:55 PM
Still kicking myself daily for selling 100 shares at 110$ back in 08.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 15, 2012, 04:45:45 PM
For those of you who have access to The Economist, there's an interesting graph in there that shows various companies' share of US internet ad revenue.  I was *very* surprised to learn that Yahoo!, while steadily declining, has only now fallen to the same level as Google.  Both are at around 12% now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 16, 2012, 07:56:55 AM
I read Cramer lashed out on people who got scared of yesterday's Apple move. Does this mean the stock will never see $500 again? :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2012, 09:39:09 AM
I just received my first ever bond coupon!  :w00t:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 16, 2012, 11:50:16 AM
Quote from: Alcibiades on February 15, 2012, 04:44:55 PM
Still kicking myself daily for selling 100 shares at 110$ back in 08.
:pinch: That's like a $40,000 mistake.  Yikes. :pinch:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 16, 2012, 01:18:31 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 16, 2012, 11:50:16 AM
Quote from: Alcibiades on February 15, 2012, 04:44:55 PM
Still kicking myself daily for selling 100 shares at 110$ back in 08.
:pinch: That's like a $40,000 mistake.  Yikes. :pinch:

It's only opportunity cost. Don't discourage him.  :P







Quote from: Twitter
Jon Najarian @optionmonster

Even with long-term view like Tilson, you can own AAPL LEAPS and sell calls into it to generate fantastic returns

He's one of the goatee guys on CNBC. Leaps are very long-term options. I think the strategy he's talking about is to buy calls on Apple that expire a very long time from now, say Jan 2014, and then sell calls every week or month against that position. I assume the faster deteriorating time premium on the shorter-term sold calls is where the profit is in this strategy.

Let's see--AAPL Jan 2014 490 (currently in the money) calls cost 91.45. So I'd have to buy one of those for $9145.00. Total cost = x100.

Then I sell, say the monthly calls. I want to stay somewhat out of the money so I pick Feb 2012 calls at 505. Those cost $5.30 right now. So I pocket $530 this month. Repeat every month until Jan 2014. Five hundred bucks a month for 23 months. I would likely have to make adjustments to my underlying leap to account for changes in AAPL's market price and to keep my leap far enough in the future to keep its value, but the income would likely be roughly the same.

A little more than double the initial investment in almost two years. The weeklies would bring in maybe 200 a week from the sold calls. That would triple the investment. Interesting exercise, anyway.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2012, 01:54:29 PM
Unless it gets called the first month, in which case you're out eight and a half large.

Something has been pushing up my small cap ETF the last week or so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 16, 2012, 02:51:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2012, 01:54:29 PM
Unless it gets called the first month, in which case you're out eight and a half large.


So I understood it correctly. Is this supposed to be along the lines that if you keep sucking up some pretty bad losses on keeping selling monthlies on continued Apple strength, you will make an absolute killing in 2014 covering all those earlier losses?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2012, 02:53:30 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 16, 2012, 02:51:22 PM
So I understood it correctly. Is this supposed to be along the lines that if you keep sucking up some pretty bad losses on keeping selling monthlies on continued Apple strength, you will make an absolute killing in 2014 covering all those earlier losses?

The way I understand it you're buying the long dated call option to cover the otherwise naked calls you're selling short term. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 16, 2012, 03:05:50 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2012, 02:53:30 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 16, 2012, 02:51:22 PM
So I understood it correctly. Is this supposed to be along the lines that if you keep sucking up some pretty bad losses on keeping selling monthlies on continued Apple strength, you will make an absolute killing in 2014 covering all those earlier losses?

The way I understand it you're buying the long dated call option to cover the otherwise naked calls you're selling short term.


Yes, you got it.

I assume that in order to manage risk with this strategy, you would have to make sure you're swapping the long call out for one with a better strike when it needs to be---as well as being careful to not get caught short an in the money call on the short-term side (you can always buy it back if the price gets close, but that cuts into your profits). You would get the chance to pick a different strike each month or week on the short side.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on February 16, 2012, 03:19:30 PM
So, does everyone win ?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 17, 2012, 01:20:48 AM
How much more?

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FMI-BN608_PANMKT_G_20120216231202.jpg&hash=de04e0ef7b707ce2890395b6d314d47ab04392f3)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 21, 2012, 04:01:19 PM
Wallie World is taking a beating today.

MIM: never wrong?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 21, 2012, 04:04:48 PM
Give me a crash. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 23, 2012, 01:59:05 PM
Apple is sitting on $100 billion in cash. Give us a dividend. :mad:


http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/02/23/an-apple-dividend-dont-count-on-it-just-yet/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/02/23/an-apple-dividend-dont-count-on-it-just-yet/)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on February 23, 2012, 02:05:37 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on February 23, 2012, 01:59:05 PM
Apple is sitting on $100 billion in cash. Give us a dividend. :mad:


http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/02/23/an-apple-dividend-dont-count-on-it-just-yet/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/02/23/an-apple-dividend-dont-count-on-it-just-yet/)

Dividend? Obama should go commie on their asses & seize it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 23, 2012, 02:08:40 PM
No shit. Apple's not some gay techy-fad startup anymore. Well, they're not a startup.  :P



If I were appointed CEO of Apple, the first thing I would do is begin paying a dividend. It's baffling that they haven't already.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 09, 2012, 02:51:46 PM
Greece's thing is a credit event (maybe). I just bought a big pile of weekly puts on SPY that expire in an hour and a half.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on March 09, 2012, 02:53:11 PM
Will bond investors ever trust again?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 09, 2012, 02:55:33 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on March 09, 2012, 02:53:11 PM
Will bond investors ever trust again?

Yes. For some reason, they historically always come back.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 09, 2012, 03:02:41 PM
Pulled out of half my puts for a triple. That more than pays for the trade. Let's see what happens with the rest.


Edit: Out. Volume has died away and I don't want to get caught in an EOD ramp. Nice little trade: over


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 13, 2012, 03:38:11 PM
BAC up 5% on the day, JPM up 7%, WMT up 5%.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 13, 2012, 05:54:44 PM
Looks like the big bounce in financials was caused by results of a new financial institution stress test released today.  Citi, Ally, SunTrust and Met Life (?) failed.

Then again the stress test was to see how capital would hold up if unemployment rose to 13%, so I don't know how immediately useful that was.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 14, 2012, 11:28:38 AM
That and JPM announced a dividend boost and a stock buyback on the same day.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on March 16, 2012, 11:13:27 AM
What's with RIMM up over 5% right now? It makes me want to short it.(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.backupot.com%2FSmileys%2Fclassic%2F39.gif&hash=41060136bc3114d417df7d35575234752e82a1fd)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2012, 12:48:19 AM
Hey MIM, prices for options are quoted per share, right?  For example I was looking at selling $17 April puts on PBI and saw a bid price of 30 cents.

FYI everybody, PBI's price has dropped so much they're now yielding 8.9%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 21, 2012, 12:18:22 PM
Yes. Price is quoted per share. If it says thirty cents, the option costs thirty dollars.



I don't know why the market hates that stock so much. I guess it's out of the cycle. When the market is going up, people all want to be in sexy stuff. I don't know that business well though. But it's got a lot of short interest, and the technical pattern has no triggers in it. The analyst ratings are all neutral/hold with the biggest flaws pointed out being slow growth and poor share price performance, but we know that already.

Quote
Pitney Bowes (PBI)

    * Market Cap: $3.63 Billion
    * Dividend Yield: 8.26%
    * Shares in Float: 199.27 Million
    * Short Float: 24.18%

http://seekingalpha.com/article/446651-5-high-dividend-stocks-under-short-attack

That can turn into a short squeeze quickly if it uncoils. You buy stuff like this for a dividend (which they raised last month), not a quick punt, but either a takeover or short squeeze would be all right too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2012, 04:44:30 PM
Here's my plan, tell me what you think of it.

I sell April puts on PBI for 200 shares, maybe at $17.  If the stock puts to me, great.  If not, I buy it anyway before the 5/15 ex-dividend date.  Then I sell covered calls in every month *except* the ones with an ex-dividend date.  If it gets called away, I go back to selling puts, unless it's a month with an ex-dividend date, in which case I buy it again.

:)

Seems to me a dividend stock with with a low share price is the perfect type to play this put/call strategy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 21, 2012, 06:57:00 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2012, 04:44:30 PM
Here's my plan, tell me what you think of it.

I sell April puts on PBI for 200 shares, maybe at $17.  If the stock puts to me, great.  If not, I buy it anyway before the 5/15 ex-dividend date.  Then I sell covered calls in every month *except* the ones with an ex-dividend date.  If it gets called away, I go back to selling puts, unless it's a month with an ex-dividend date, in which case I buy it again.

:)

Seems to me a dividend stock with with a low share price is the perfect type to play this put/call strategy.

I like it. Deceptively conservative.

It's hard to pick bad strikes or burn too much in trade fees with a stock that moves like this one. Otherwise, I'd say those are the biggest risks, particularly when trading small numbers of contracts. Sell your puts too low and you get less than the dividend, too high and it gets exercised too easily. This stock is a good match for this sort of thing, IMO.



Quote from: PBI

   Puts Calculator    
                  

                  Bid              Ask             Last             Change         Vol           Op Int    

   16.0 Put       0.05       0.10       0.06       0.01       0       1,822    
   17.0 Put       0.15       0.20       0.15       -0.05       14       12,584    
   18.0 Put       0.30       0.40       0.35       -0.05       26       3,711    
   19.0 Put       0.85       0.95       1.00       -0.05       10       1,097    
   20.0 Put       1.75       1.90       2.08       0.07       0       176    
   21.0 Put       2.75       3.00       2.20       -0.79       0       36    



Watch the open interest and the volume when working with lightly-traded options like this. Your plan should be fine with just a couple at a time, but if you were scaled up to a lot of options per trade it would be tough to move them. You can't do this with a hundred grand worth of PBI moving five thousand puts around at a time.







Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2012, 07:15:53 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 21, 2012, 06:57:00 PM
Watch the open interest and the volume when working with lightly-traded options like this. Your plan should be fine with just a couple at a time, but if you were scaled up to a lot of options per trade it would be tough to move them. You can't do this with a hundred grand worth of PBI moving five thousand puts around at a time.

:lol:  Thanks for the heads up MIM.  I was this close to putting a hundred G's into uncovered PBI puts.

Re open interest: does this mean the # of outstanding contracts, or does this mean the # of contracts which have been offered but not yet bought?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 22, 2012, 06:04:35 PM
It's the number of open contracts. It tells you how many people own them. It's a good thing to look at as expiration day closes in to guess how the stock might move. If for example there are tons of open calls at a certain stock price, it's more likely that stock will find it difficult to get below that price as the things begin to exercise there.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 26, 2012, 04:13:45 PM
Etrade just dinged my request for level 2 options trading, which I needed to sell covered puts.  Gave me level 1 instead, which allows me to only sell covered calls.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on April 03, 2012, 02:01:54 PM
Dipped my toe in the water and bought some shares in Telefonica S.A. (TEF)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on April 04, 2012, 09:56:11 PM
Recent investments:

StatOil ADR (STO) @ $25.76 (currently @$26.98)
Kellogg's (K) @$51.02 (currently @$53.31)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 23, 2012, 08:27:55 AM
FUCKING WALLY WORLD.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FS8H2FIf1oH4%2F0.jpg&hash=0e9d70924de35f843b185dd279661354c820d3b8)

SELL!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 23, 2012, 09:36:19 AM
Damn it Ed, where is the screaming face shouting FFFFUUUUCCCCKKKK that you normally post when the markets are tanking?

I find that it cheers me up in dark times  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on April 23, 2012, 09:41:06 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.threadbombing.com%2Fdata%2Fmedia%2F31%2FOMFG.jpg&hash=909a3985d69724f9759e56691562026b6951d360)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 23, 2012, 11:23:35 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 23, 2012, 09:36:19 AM
Damn it Ed, where is the screaming face shouting FFFFUUUUCCCCKKKK that you normally post when the markets are tanking?

I find that it cheers me up in dark times  :D


(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm3.staticflickr.com%2F2553%2F3865537991_8cc360a9f9.jpg&hash=9a2facaf013fb7581e0b7f959cacf577d0bd564a)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 23, 2012, 11:24:17 AM
I locked in my profits on wally world. It does down some more, I'll buy again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 23, 2012, 12:14:20 PM
TY Ed, much appreciated  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 30, 2012, 02:54:27 PM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11513200/1/fair-market-value-update.html


tldr: Doug Kass says the fair market value of the S&P is 1485. He also tweeted we'd close green today. As for me, I have a bear call spread on at 141/140 SPY, expires Friday. I bought PG after the drop the other day to have something in there. Doug has 8 minutes for his green close to kick in...


Edit: Red close, you lose Dougie.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 01, 2012, 06:34:44 PM
Facebook IPO: May 18th


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 02, 2012, 04:13:53 PM
I was thinking of shorting Green Mountain on Monday after my successful play on Apple's earnings. I didn't do it, and went for a more conservative trade instead. Now look at this, GMCR--down 40% after hours. Trading halted.  :P

I wish I would trust my gut more. Last summer shook my confidence.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 02, 2012, 04:19:08 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 02, 2012, 04:13:53 PM
I was thinking of shorting Green Mountain on Monday after my successful play on Apple's earnings. I didn't do it, and went for a more conservative trade instead. Now look at this, GMCR--down 40% after hours. Trading halted.  :P

I wish I would trust my gut more. Last summer shook my confidence.
What happened?  Did scientists discover that the plastic from K-cups causes cancer?  Green Mountain was one of my missed investing opportunities many years ago, when I noticed how ubiquitous Keurig coffee-makers becomes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 02, 2012, 04:20:09 PM
I think Starbucks is moving into the overpriced single cup of coffee maker at home space.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 02, 2012, 04:26:19 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on May 02, 2012, 04:20:09 PM
I think Starbucks is moving into the overpriced single cup of coffee maker at home space.
Didn't Starbucks renew their contract with GMC?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 02, 2012, 04:32:34 PM
No idea. I only remember business news when Jim Cramer plays funny sound effects.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 04, 2012, 04:14:14 PM
I haven't taken the time to properly decipher the stuff here:
http://www.nxcoreapi.com/aqck/3271.html

but it is still interesting - if you want to seek evidence/pattern of high frequency algo trading in today's market, you need to analyze 25 milliseconds charts or less. Fascinating, and scary.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 04, 2012, 05:20:32 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 30, 2012, 02:54:27 PMAs for me, I have a bear call spread on at 141/140 SPY, expires Friday.

We closed at 137. I got the full profit this time. Although what I would have gotten from GMCR puts would have been way better. Still, my spread netted me 30% or so.

Quote
I haven't taken the time to properly decipher the stuff here:
http://www.nxcoreapi.com/aqck/3271.html

but it is still interesting - if you want to seek evidence/pattern of high frequency algo trading in today's market, you need to analyze 25 milliseconds charts or less. Fascinating, and scary.


But they provide liquidity!!!1111

Heh. I still think every trade should require a mouse click by a human. But that's me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 08, 2012, 06:52:08 PM
Learned a new term today.  A "Texas hedge" is when a farmer goes long on his own commodity in the futures market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 08, 2012, 07:03:19 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 08, 2012, 06:52:08 PM
Learned a new term today.  A "Texas hedge" is when a farmer goes long on his own commodity in the futures market.

My father in law does that with hog futures and pork bellies. It evens out the ups and downs, making their income more predictable too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 08, 2012, 09:33:34 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 08, 2012, 07:03:19 PM
My father in law does that with hog futures and pork bellies. It evens out the ups and downs, making their income more predictable too.

You might not be getting it.  Farmers should sell positions to hedge.  A farmer who buys a position is doubling his exposure.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 09, 2012, 09:09:25 AM
What a clusterfuck.

MY GE STOCKS.  :cry:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on May 10, 2012, 06:53:09 PM
from April 13:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-13/jpmorgan-said-to-transform-treasury-to-prop-trading.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-13/jpmorgan-said-to-transform-treasury-to-prop-trading.html)

today:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-10/jpmorgan-chase-says-cio-unit-suffered-significant-loss.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-10/jpmorgan-chase-says-cio-unit-suffered-significant-loss.html)



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 10, 2012, 07:20:25 PM
So...they put a Greek in charge of the part of the company that's supposed to be protecting the bank from risk.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on May 11, 2012, 12:32:06 PM
Does anyone think that Facebook is worth a short when it goes onto the market? Probably not the first few days, but when the initial hype dies down?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 11, 2012, 12:43:30 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 04, 2012, 05:20:32 PM
But they provide liquidity!!!1111
I wonder if that's actually true.  I can see how they can provide liquidity in a sense that they would lower the bid/ask spread.  On the other hand, I can see this kind of frantic trading on very thin margins creating liquidity crises, when something sets off a chain reaction.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 11, 2012, 01:29:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 11, 2012, 12:43:30 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 04, 2012, 05:20:32 PM
But they provide liquidity!!!1111
I wonder if that's actually true.  I can see how they can provide liquidity in a sense that they would lower the bid/ask spread.  On the other hand, I can see this kind of frantic trading on very thin margins creating liquidity crises, when something sets off a chain reaction.

Yeah, I think you're right to wonder. There are times when they actually suck all the liquidity out rather than facilitating trades. Particularly when the majority of trading is going one direction. We've seen the HFTs actually drive the spreads out of control, rather than keep it tight.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 11, 2012, 01:50:11 PM
So the big stink at Green Mountain is that the Chairman (now ex-) Robert Stiller took out loans against his stock to buy a yacht and some other stuff. Then when the recent price drop happened, he got a margin call on those loans. That triggered the broker to sell all his stock. You can imagine how the market reacts to the chairman of the company dumping all his stock at once of course. So he's been fired as chairman for inappropriate behavior or someshit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 11, 2012, 01:56:54 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 11, 2012, 01:50:11 PM
So the big stink at Green Mountain is that the Chairman (now ex-) Robert Stiller took out loans against his stock to buy a yacht and some other stuff. Then when the recent price drop happened, he got a margin call on those loans. That triggered the broker to sell all his stock. You can imagine how the market reacts to the chairman of the company dumping all his stock at once of course. So he's been fired as chairman for inappropriate behavior or someshit.
:lmfao:  I thought that only happened in Railroad Tycoon 3.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 11, 2012, 02:01:24 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 11, 2012, 01:29:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 11, 2012, 12:43:30 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 04, 2012, 05:20:32 PM
But they provide liquidity!!!1111
I wonder if that's actually true.  I can see how they can provide liquidity in a sense that they would lower the bid/ask spread.  On the other hand, I can see this kind of frantic trading on very thin margins creating liquidity crises, when something sets off a chain reaction.

Yeah, I think you're right to wonder. There are times when they actually suck all the liquidity out rather than facilitating trades. Particularly when the majority of trading is going one direction. We've seen the HFTs actually drive the spreads out of control, rather than keep it tight.


Speaking of which:

http://premarketinfo.wordpress.com/2012/05/07/two-years-after-the-flash-crash-spreads-are-narrower-and-liquidity-deeper-than-ever-before-guess-again/

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 14, 2012, 03:21:12 PM
Anybody know what company is likely to get the contract to print drachmas? Is De La Rue a good guess? Isn't there another big one in Germany?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 14, 2012, 06:34:44 PM
Can somebody explain why I should care or be concerned about the "flash crash"?

There are high frequency computer algorithms driving trades and there are people that try to take into account the value of the underlying asset (company, index, etc). I'm in the latter category. If a program (or cascade of programs) completely jumps the shark, in the unlikely event I'm paying attention I get to either buy at a steep discount or sell at a windfall. Winnings for me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on May 14, 2012, 06:38:40 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 14, 2012, 06:34:44 PM
Can somebody explain why I should care or be concerned about the "flash crash"?

No need for concern, just don't use stop loss orders.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 14, 2012, 06:56:03 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 14, 2012, 06:34:44 PM
Can somebody explain why I should care or be concerned about the "flash crash"?

There are high frequency computer algorithms driving trades and there are people that try to take into account the value of the underlying asset (company, index, etc). I'm in the latter category. If a program (or cascade of programs) completely jumps the shark, in the unlikely event I'm paying attention I get to either buy at a steep discount or sell at a windfall. Winnings for me.
If you're trading in options, and your position is unprotected on one side, you should be very concerned.  If the flash crash causes a liquidity crisis because every trader gets an instant margin call, you should be concerned as well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 14, 2012, 07:04:41 PM
So lets assume I'm not out using exotic and complex derivatives (a bit tongue in cheek on the exotic and complex part) and I'm not placing counterintuitive orders to sell when the price gets low. I'm just an ordinary investor that buys when valuations look right and sells when they look high.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 14, 2012, 07:23:50 PM
Then your main risk is exposure to the secondary effects of the flash. Like people ripping their money out of the market quickly out of fear and the value of your stuff going down as a result.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 14, 2012, 07:37:10 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 14, 2012, 07:23:50 PM
Then your main risk is exposure to the secondary effects of the flash. Like people ripping their money out of the market quickly out of fear and the value of your stuff going down as a result.

That sounds like more opportunity.

I don't think we need to regulate the sale of plasma TVs based on the risk that a moron manager at Wal Mart will price one at $20. If that happens and I see it, I will happily take advantage and buy the TV at $20. If everyone else panics and starts selling their plasma TVs for $20, I will outfit every room I have with a plasma TV.

This breaks down in that I have a limited opportunity to use plasma TVs. But stocks give me an ownership claim to the future cash flows of a company. I have an unlimited appetite for those. If I don't think those justify the purchase price, I don't buy the stock.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 15, 2012, 11:32:12 AM
So Delta Airlines bought an oil refinery. I know it's near impossible to make an airline profitable in modern times, but this is a different strategy. I guess they are forced to get creative, and figured some vertical integration might help. I doubt it will do much for their operating costs on the airline itself, although it may provide a profitable sideline to offset their flying losses.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 12:03:04 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 14, 2012, 07:37:10 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 14, 2012, 07:23:50 PM
Then your main risk is exposure to the secondary effects of the flash. Like people ripping their money out of the market quickly out of fear and the value of your stuff going down as a result.

That sounds like more opportunity.

I don't think we need to regulate the sale of plasma TVs based on the risk that a moron manager at Wal Mart will price one at $20. If that happens and I see it, I will happily take advantage and buy the TV at $20. If everyone else panics and starts selling their plasma TVs for $20, I will outfit every room I have with a plasma TV.

This breaks down in that I have a limited opportunity to use plasma TVs. But stocks give me an ownership claim to the future cash flows of a company. I have an unlimited appetite for those. If I don't think those justify the purchase price, I don't buy the stock.
Liquidity events have real costs, they're not zero-sum. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 12:16:26 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 12:03:04 PM
Liquidity events have real costs, they're not zero-sum.

For modern equity markets traded on exchanges? I'm skeptical...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: stjaba on May 15, 2012, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 15, 2012, 11:32:12 AM
So Delta Airlines bought an oil refinery. I know it's near impossible to make an airline profitable in modern times, but this is a different strategy. I guess they are forced to get creative, and figured some vertical integration might help. I doubt it will do much for their operating costs on the airline itself, although it may provide a profitable sideline to offset their flying losses.  :P

A few years ago, at least one one of the major airlines made a profit almost  based solely on petroleum futures. :lmfao:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on May 15, 2012, 01:05:34 PM
Airlines seem to have been going broke for as long as I can recall. I wonder how the average returns on the entire sector since, say, 1950, compare to other industries? At a guess pretty poorly. Rational markets vs.  ooh! it's big and shiny and flies through the air!  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 01:15:05 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 15, 2012, 01:05:34 PM
Airlines seem to have been going broke for as long as I can recall. I wonder how the average returns on the entire sector since, say, 1950, compare to other industries? At a guess pretty poorly. Rational markets vs.  ooh! it's big and shiny and flies through the air!  :D

I don't know if it is still true, but at one recent point the airline industry had net losses since inception.

I big part of the problem is that airlines are relatively cheap to operate, sans massive upfront costs made years in advance (buying the plane). People in an industry have a bias to overproject their future prospects: no one projects they are going to lose market share, afterall. The result is chronic overcapacity. Unfortunately for the airlines (and fortunately for the flying public), those giant expensive planes are sunk costs and airlines have to slash prices to attract passengers and cover current operating costs.

I understand the same problems existed with trains on the competitive passenger routes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 01:36:22 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 15, 2012, 01:05:34 PM
Airlines seem to have been going broke for as long as I can recall. I wonder how the average returns on the entire sector since, say, 1950, compare to other industries? At a guess pretty poorly. Rational markets vs.  ooh! it's big and shiny and flies through the air!  :D

But a lot of the newer, low-cost airlines have generally been pretty profitable, such as Southwest, Ryan Air, and Westjet.

So in's not some problem inherent to the airline industry.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 01:51:06 PM
Quote from: stjaba on May 15, 2012, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 15, 2012, 11:32:12 AM
So Delta Airlines bought an oil refinery. I know it's near impossible to make an airline profitable in modern times, but this is a different strategy. I guess they are forced to get creative, and figured some vertical integration might help. I doubt it will do much for their operating costs on the airline itself, although it may provide a profitable sideline to offset their flying losses.  :P

A few years ago, at least one one of the major airlines made a profit almost  based solely on petroleum futures. :lmfao:
That's doesn't seem that funny or strange to me, that just seems like an accounting quirk.  If you're going to hedge the price of fuel, which a competent airline should do, then it's not surprising that a lot of your "profit" is going to come from the futures if the price of fuel goes up.  The futures are supposed to insure your operations against rising fuel prices.  If your house burns down, then most of your "profits" for the year are going to come from the insurance policy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on May 15, 2012, 02:14:45 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 01:36:22 PM
But a lot of the newer, low-cost airlines have generally been pretty profitable, such as Southwest, Ryan Air, and Westjet.

So in's not some problem inherent to the airline industry.
Isn't a big part of their business model using older, often second hand planes?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 02:30:25 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 01:36:22 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 15, 2012, 01:05:34 PM
Airlines seem to have been going broke for as long as I can recall. I wonder how the average returns on the entire sector since, say, 1950, compare to other industries? At a guess pretty poorly. Rational markets vs.  ooh! it's big and shiny and flies through the air!  :D

But a lot of the newer, low-cost airlines have generally been pretty profitable, such as Southwest, Ryan Air, and Westjet.

So in's not some problem inherent to the airline industry.

Business isn't supposed to be zero or negative sum. If it was, long term investing would be equivalent to going to vegas--you tend to lose, even if some might win. If the airline industry hasn't been historically profitable even though a few companies have been over the shorter term, I would think there are inherent problems in the industry.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 02:35:59 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 15, 2012, 02:14:45 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 01:36:22 PM
But a lot of the newer, low-cost airlines have generally been pretty profitable, such as Southwest, Ryan Air, and Westjet.

So in's not some problem inherent to the airline industry.
Isn't a big part of their business model using older, often second hand planes?

Westjet, the Canadian low-cost airline, has the country's newest fleet.  I think they may fhave gotten started using used 737s.  Wiki says average age of the fleet is 6 years.

Wiki says the average age of fleet for Ryanai is 3.9 years.  Wiki doesn't give an age of fleet for Southwest, but it looks like 3/4 of their fleet is the new 737-700, with the remainder being the older 737-200 and 737-300.

All airlines run such a similar business model that they all run identical planes - nothing but 737s.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 02:40:31 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 02:30:25 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 01:36:22 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 15, 2012, 01:05:34 PM
Airlines seem to have been going broke for as long as I can recall. I wonder how the average returns on the entire sector since, say, 1950, compare to other industries? At a guess pretty poorly. Rational markets vs.  ooh! it's big and shiny and flies through the air!  :D

But a lot of the newer, low-cost airlines have generally been pretty profitable, such as Southwest, Ryan Air, and Westjet.

So in's not some problem inherent to the airline industry.

Business isn't supposed to be zero or negative sum. If it was, long term investing would be equivalent to going to vegas--you tend to lose, even if some might win. If the airline industry hasn't been historically profitable even though a few companies have been over the shorter term, I would think there are inherent problems in the industry.

Shorter term?  Southwest goes back to the 70s (but looks like it didn't really get going until deregulation in the late 70s / ealy 80s).  The other two simply wholesale adopted the Southwest business model.

It's like arguing the movie business has inherent problems because all DVD rental stores are going out of business.  It's just one business model within that industry that has problems.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 02:44:23 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 01:51:06 PM
Quote from: stjaba on May 15, 2012, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 15, 2012, 11:32:12 AM
So Delta Airlines bought an oil refinery. I know it's near impossible to make an airline profitable in modern times, but this is a different strategy. I guess they are forced to get creative, and figured some vertical integration might help. I doubt it will do much for their operating costs on the airline itself, although it may provide a profitable sideline to offset their flying losses.  :P

A few years ago, at least one one of the major airlines made a profit almost  based solely on petroleum futures. :lmfao:
That's doesn't seem that funny or strange to me, that just seems like an accounting quirk.  If you're going to hedge the price of fuel, which a competent airline should do, then it's not surprising that a lot of your "profit" is going to come from the futures if the price of fuel goes up.  The futures are supposed to insure your operations against rising fuel prices.  If your house burns down, then most of your "profits" for the year are going to come from the insurance policy.

While I agree, I think there is an inherent problem in using derivatives like this (which I ignored in my defense of derivatives in other threads).

To take a real life example, Southwest hedged against the risk that fuel prices would rise, while Delta did not. Fuel prices did go up, and Southwest had major gains and a significant competitive advantage over Delta. Delta subsequently went bankrupt.

The problem is that there is no such thing as a free lunch: the derivatives Southwest got would have cost the airline dearly had prices declined. Very possibly they would have been bankrupt while Delta grew.

These fate of these two airlines wasn't just about which could best manage normal airline operations, but rather which can best hedge/speculate (depending on your perspective) the costs of fuel.

I think this is too bad, as the focus of management should be on their core business such as figuring out ways to begin charging for carryons or take away drink service, rather than how to play the oil markets.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 02:56:08 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 02:44:23 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 01:51:06 PM
Quote from: stjaba on May 15, 2012, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 15, 2012, 11:32:12 AM
So Delta Airlines bought an oil refinery. I know it's near impossible to make an airline profitable in modern times, but this is a different strategy. I guess they are forced to get creative, and figured some vertical integration might help. I doubt it will do much for their operating costs on the airline itself, although it may provide a profitable sideline to offset their flying losses.  :P

A few years ago, at least one one of the major airlines made a profit almost  based solely on petroleum futures. :lmfao:
That's doesn't seem that funny or strange to me, that just seems like an accounting quirk.  If you're going to hedge the price of fuel, which a competent airline should do, then it's not surprising that a lot of your "profit" is going to come from the futures if the price of fuel goes up.  The futures are supposed to insure your operations against rising fuel prices.  If your house burns down, then most of your "profits" for the year are going to come from the insurance policy.

While I agree, I think there is an inherent problem in using derivatives like this (which I ignored in my defense of derivatives in other threads).

To take a real life example, Southwest hedged against the risk that fuel prices would rise, while Delta did not. Fuel prices did go up, and Southwest had major gains and a significant competitive advantage over Delta. Delta subsequently went bankrupt.

The problem is that there is no such thing as a free lunch: the derivatives Southwest got would have cost the airline dearly had prices declined. Very possibly they would have been bankrupt while Delta grew.

These fate of these two airlines wasn't just about which could best manage normal airline operations, but rather which can best hedge/speculate (depending on your perspective) the costs of fuel.

I think this is too bad, as the focus of management should be on their core business such as figuring out ways to begin charging for carryons or take away drink service, rather than how to play the oil markets.

:mellow:

But a large number of industries have their profit/loss closely tied to the price of a single commodity.  Steel companies, airlines, power companies - all need to be able to best manage their costs, potentially by hedging.

It's nice to say "management should focus on their core business" but that's not how the world works.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 02:58:25 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 02:40:31 PM

Shorter term?  Southwest goes back to the 70s (but looks like it didn't really get going until deregulation in the late 70s / ealy 80s).  The other two simply wholesale adopted the Southwest business model.

It's like arguing the movie business has inherent problems because all DVD rental stores are going out of business.  It's just one business model within that industry that has problems.

I would think that rental stores have been historically profitable, and are only now going away as they are becoming obsolete. It isn't an applicable comparison.

I don't know how large Southwest was--I thought they became really big in the past 10-15 years. Could be wrong. I don't see why that matters: Vegas is a terrible overall investment, even if there are millionaires who have made their living at the poker or sports books beating the odds. Southwest may be really good in a really bad industry and make money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 15, 2012, 02:59:38 PM
Going short EWZ (Brazil ETF). Vertical call spread 55/54.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 03:07:36 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 02:56:08 PM
It's nice to say "management should focus on their core business" but that's not how the world works.

No kidding--that doesn't mean I can't whine about it. :p And in this case, sans derivatives, it wouldn't be very practical.

Quote:mellow:

But a large number of industries have their profit/loss closely tied to the price of a single commodity.  Steel companies, airlines, power companies - all need to be able to best manage their costs, potentially by hedging.

A large part of that is because their competitors are hedging. Imagine if no one hedged in the airline industry. If fuel prices went up 50%, that would hit all the airlines. That should end up increasing the cost of a ticket by some value less than that, which would have some effect on passenger travel and hurt the airlines to an extent, but not critically.

If everyone hedges, and hedges in the same way, then the investment banks get healthy fees, and the airlines still likely have some exposure especially longer term, but everyone is in the same boat.

Now imagine that some airlines hedge, and some don't (or at least in significantly different ways)--this is the world we live in. If you have not hedged effectively, you are noncompetitive and bankrupt.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 03:25:26 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 03:07:36 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 02:56:08 PM
It's nice to say "management should focus on their core business" but that's not how the world works.

No kidding--that doesn't mean I can't whine about it. :p And in this case, sans derivatives, it wouldn't be very practical.

Quote:mellow:

But a large number of industries have their profit/loss closely tied to the price of a single commodity.  Steel companies, airlines, power companies - all need to be able to best manage their costs, potentially by hedging.

A large part of that is because their competitors are hedging. Imagine if no one hedged in the airline industry. If fuel prices went up 50%, that would hit all the airlines. That should end up increasing the cost of a ticket by some value less than that, which would have some effect on passenger travel and hurt the airlines to an extent, but not critically.

If everyone hedges, and hedges in the same way, then the investment banks get healthy fees, and the airlines still likely have some exposure especially longer term, but everyone is in the same boat.

Now imagine that some airlines hedge, and some don't (or at least in significantly different ways)--this is the world we live in. If you have not hedged effectively, you are noncompetitive and bankrupt.

But an airline hedging on fuel prices, a steel company hedging on iron prices, a power company hedging gas or coal prices - that is what the commodities hedging was designed for in the first place.  These are not derivatives, they're not hyper-complex securities - they're pretty basic financial tools, and no different than producers like a farmer, minor or oil company, using hedging to reduce their risk.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 03:45:16 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 03:25:26 PM

But an airline hedging on fuel prices, a steel company hedging on iron prices, a power company hedging gas or coal prices - that is what the commodities hedging was designed for in the first place.  These are not derivatives, they're not hyper-complex securities - they're pretty basic financial tools, and no different than producers like a farmer, minor or oil company, using hedging to reduce their risk.

They are absolutely derivatives. Not to get into another argument about whether derivatives are complex, but I don't think the derivatives being discussed are inherently more simple than say the derivatives that got AIG in so much trouble.

I also think you are mixing categories here. A farmer, a minor, or an oil company all make significant up front investments that are in part based on future product prices. Derivatives help them manage that risk.

An airline or power company is hedging a variable input cost--that in this case can be passed on to some extent to customers. There are dramatically different ways to hedge as well. And I don't know if this is still the case, but at least about 10 years ago you couldn't even hedge jet fuel, these airlines are hedging other products such as oil that are to a greater or lesser extent correlated with jet fuel, but not identically. It is a bit messier.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on May 15, 2012, 03:47:56 PM
PBI down to 13.45 today.  Dodged a bullet on that one.   :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 03:52:06 PM
Here is an example that is completely contrary to what I was arguing a few days ago, but I doubt all that many people read what I write anyway.

Take foreign currency hedges. If your Canadian company has a major British sub, you probably are hedging against fluctuations in the pound to keep your earnings consistent.

However, as a diversified investor, I probably own not only shares of your company, but also a British company that has a major Canadian sub that is hedging in the opposite direction.

On a net basis, I was protected before any hedging took place. The only effect of the two companies hedging is that earnings I normally would have had are now going to pay the bonus of some dude on Wall Street. Worse, if one company diversifies and the other doesn't, I'm still paying the bonus of some dude on Wall Street and am now unprotected.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 04:00:32 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 03:45:16 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 03:25:26 PM

But an airline hedging on fuel prices, a steel company hedging on iron prices, a power company hedging gas or coal prices - that is what the commodities hedging was designed for in the first place.  These are not derivatives, they're not hyper-complex securities - they're pretty basic financial tools, and no different than producers like a farmer, minor or oil company, using hedging to reduce their risk.

They are absolutely derivatives. Not to get into another argument about whether derivatives are complex, but I don't think the derivatives being discussed are inherently more simple than say the derivatives that got AIG in so much trouble.

I also think you are mixing categories here. A farmer, a minor, or an oil company all make significant up front investments that are in part based on future product prices. Derivatives help them manage that risk.

An airline or power company is hedging a variable input cost--that in this case can be passed on to some extent to customers. There are dramatically different ways to hedge as well. And I don't know if this is still the case, but at least about 10 years ago you couldn't even hedge jet fuel, these airlines are hedging other products such as oil that are to a greater or lesser extent correlated with jet fuel, but not identically. It is a bit messier.

What is the difference between hedging your future product prices and hedging your input cost though?  I will note that both a farmer and an airline have to make significant up front investments that are based both of future product prices and future input costs.

I'll concede that commodity hedging is a derivative - but it's one of the oldest and mature derivatives out there.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 04:23:12 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 02:44:23 PM
While I agree, I think there is an inherent problem in using derivatives like this (which I ignored in my defense of derivatives in other threads).

To take a real life example, Southwest hedged against the risk that fuel prices would rise, while Delta did not. Fuel prices did go up, and Southwest had major gains and a significant competitive advantage over Delta. Delta subsequently went bankrupt.

The problem is that there is no such thing as a free lunch: the derivatives Southwest got would have cost the airline dearly had prices declined. Very possibly they would have been bankrupt while Delta grew.

These fate of these two airlines wasn't just about which could best manage normal airline operations, but rather which can best hedge/speculate (depending on your perspective) the costs of fuel.

I think this is too bad, as the focus of management should be on their core business such as figuring out ways to begin charging for carryons or take away drink service, rather than how to play the oil markets.
I don't see a problem here at all.  The point of a hedge is to insulate your business against outside influences, because bankruptcy has real costs that amount to waste.  If fuel prices rise, then the value of core business goes down, but you get a payoff from the futures.  If fuel prices fall, then you lose on the futures, but at least you have a profitable core business.  That's why it's a hedge:  it evens out the outcomes if you treat the hedge and hedged item as one unit. 

What probably happened is that Delta gambled and lost.  I also doubt that Southwest would've been bankrupt if fuel prices decreased, as long as their hedge was properly constructed.  If your hedge can bankrupt you, then it's not a hedge anymore, it's speculation.  Obviously airline companies shouldn't speculate as if they're Goldman Sachs, but not hedging their exposure to fuel prices in some way is dumb.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 04:30:41 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 03:52:06 PM
Here is an example that is completely contrary to what I was arguing a few days ago, but I doubt all that many people read what I write anyway.

Take foreign currency hedges. If your Canadian company has a major British sub, you probably are hedging against fluctuations in the pound to keep your earnings consistent.

However, as a diversified investor, I probably own not only shares of your company, but also a British company that has a major Canadian sub that is hedging in the opposite direction.

On a net basis, I was protected before any hedging took place. The only effect of the two companies hedging is that earnings I normally would have had are now going to pay the bonus of some dude on Wall Street. Worse, if one company diversifies and the other doesn't, I'm still paying the bonus of some dude on Wall Street and am now unprotected.
There are a couple of problems with the "let investors take risk, they're diversified" logic. 

First, financial distress incurs costs that are a waste.  Secondly, if your company can live or die based on some random factor outside of its control, you're either going to be less attractive to potential employees, or you'll have to pay them more.  Lastly, if your company's business is not hedged, its income will fluctuate wildly.  That's not very tax efficient.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 04:44:40 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2012, 04:00:32 PM

What is the difference between hedging your future product prices and hedging your input cost though?  I will note that both a farmer and an airline have to make significant up front investments that are based both of future product prices and future input costs.

There is a significant difference for an airline. A generic farmer invests before a crop is planted and then sells when it is harvested. The costs are linked to the revenues--although the revenues are dependent on price and the costs must be determined before those are known.

There would be more similarity if the futures were linked to the purchase of an airplane (or even the purchase of a ticket). But they aren't. Airlines tend to hedge for a number of years: which is less than their useful life of their planes, and they aren't entering the hedges when purchasing/leasing the planes. They are trying to protect against fluctuations in their daily operating costs, which to an extent can be passed on to consumers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 04:48:07 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 04:30:41 PM
There are a couple of problems with the "let investors take risk, they're diversified" logic. 

First, financial distress incurs costs that are a waste.  Secondly, if your company can live or die based on some random factor outside of its control, you're either going to be less attractive to potential employees, or you'll have to pay them more.  Lastly, if your company's business is not hedged, its income will fluctuate wildly.  That's not very tax efficient.

I don't know about the tax efficiency part, but that is basically what I was arguing a few days ago.

Obviously there is a lot of truth to that, but there is also truth to the fact that businesses with solid balance sheets are hedging against currency risks so they can present more consistent returns to analysts. To that extent, I think there is truth to what I am posting today.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 05:09:34 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 04:23:12 PM
I don't see a problem here at all.  The point of a hedge is to insulate your business against outside influences, because bankruptcy has real costs that amount to waste.  If fuel prices rise, then the value of core business goes down, but you get a payoff from the futures.  If fuel prices fall, then you lose on the futures, but at least you have a profitable core business.  That's why it's a hedge:  it evens out the outcomes if you treat the hedge and hedged item as one unit. 

What probably happened is that Delta gambled and lost.  I also doubt that Southwest would've been bankrupt if fuel prices decreased, as long as their hedge was properly constructed.  If your hedge can bankrupt you, then it's not a hedge anymore, it's speculation.  Obviously airline companies shouldn't speculate as if they're Goldman Sachs, but not hedging their exposure to fuel prices in some way is dumb.

What I think happened is that Delta needed to cut costs, and hedging is very expensive. There were academics making the case I am making, and so they decided to stop hedging.

It has been documented as a classic case of management shortsightedness. But it doesn't change the dynamic. Roughly speaking, basic futures lock in the current fuel price. If everyone is using those futures except Delta, then as most airlines are paying the historic fuel price, in the short term Delta is the only one exposed to fluctuation. If the price goes down, they can undercut Southwest. If the price goes up, they will be undercut by Southwest.

Delta could expect to come out ahead for two reasons because it didn't have to pay for the expensive hedges. But in the larger sense, are fuel hedges really effective? Yes, if fuel prices go up that will increase costs, and thus prices, and thus the demand to fly. But fuel costs are linked to the economy, which is also linked to demand to fly.

These days, both Delta and Southwest have fuel hedges, but strategies differ, and a diversity of financial products mean they can differ a lot. Hence airlines are in part competing based on their ability to gauge futures markets for fuel rather than the service they provide. Delta buying a refinery probably doesn't seem crazy to Delta executives because fuel speculation is effectively a core part of their business.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 05:38:31 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 05:09:34 PM
What I think happened is that Delta needed to cut costs, and hedging is very expensive. There were academics making the case I am making, and so they decided to stop hedging.
One caveat to what I was saying would be that if Delta were already on the ropes, it should not have hedged.  Once you're in trouble, you may as well let it ride, and have bondholders take it on the chin if fortune doesn't go your way.  Once you're likely to go bankrupt, you don't really care whether you wind up being $1 in the red or $1 trillion.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 07:43:44 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 05:38:31 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 05:09:34 PM
What I think happened is that Delta needed to cut costs, and hedging is very expensive. There were academics making the case I am making, and so they decided to stop hedging.
One caveat to what I was saying would be that if Delta were already on the ropes, it should not have hedged.  Once you're in trouble, you may as well let it ride, and have bondholders take it on the chin if fortune doesn't go your way.  Once you're likely to go bankrupt, you don't really care whether you wind up being $1 in the red or $1 trillion.

So I guess I was thoroughly unconvincing. Bummer--I thought this was one argument I could change someone's mind.

Would you at least go with another caveat that if you are simply one of many airlines struggling to break even in your hellhole of an industry, then it could make sense to stop hedging in the knowledge if things go your way you will get massive returns, and if not, you will only lose the few crappy gains you can expect in the industry as you explode.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 08:37:31 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 07:43:44 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 15, 2012, 05:38:31 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 15, 2012, 05:09:34 PM
What I think happened is that Delta needed to cut costs, and hedging is very expensive. There were academics making the case I am making, and so they decided to stop hedging.
One caveat to what I was saying would be that if Delta were already on the ropes, it should not have hedged.  Once you're in trouble, you may as well let it ride, and have bondholders take it on the chin if fortune doesn't go your way.  Once you're likely to go bankrupt, you don't really care whether you wind up being $1 in the red or $1 trillion.

So I guess I was thoroughly unconvincing. Bummer--I thought this was one argument I could change someone's mind.

Would you at least go with another caveat that if you are simply one of many airlines struggling to break even in your hellhole of an industry, then it could make sense to stop hedging in the knowledge if things go your way you will get massive returns, and if not, you will only lose the few crappy gains you can expect in the industry as you explode.
That's a continuation of a previous argument.  If the average returns are terrible, let it ride.  If you're playing roulette in a casino with borrowed money, hedging by betting on all 36 numbers is not a very smart strategy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 17, 2012, 12:42:08 PM
For the hell of it:

Bear call spread on SPY weeklies--133/134 net credit .17 qty 50. Total profit if spy does not hit 134 before tomorrow is over: $900.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 06:47:30 PM
I talked about it a few months ago, but today I decided to take the plunge and short US treasury bonds.

I tried to short the ETF EDV, but it wasn't available.  :rolleyes:

I moved on to the ETF TLT, but I didn't get it executed before close.

So hopefully something crazy won't happen before open tomorrow. If anyone has a better treasury government bond ETF to short, let me know. I liked EDV because it had long term bonds. TLT is a bit shorter (16 years average duration--wanted 20+), which is bad. Maybe I'll be able to short EDV tomorrow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 06:53:20 PM
Bad move IMO.  Not the slightest sign of inflation, no pressure on the Fed to tighten.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 07:00:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 06:53:20 PM
Bad move IMO.  Not the slightest sign of inflation, no pressure on the Fed to tighten.

The 30 year rate is 2.80%.

This isn't a 3 month play, this is looking at it thinking over the medium term rates are probably going to be significantly higher.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 07:16:42 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 07:00:28 PM
The 30 year rate is 2.80%.

This isn't a 3 month play, this is looking at it thinking over the medium term rates are probably going to be significantly higher.

You're going to sit on a short for 2 to 5 years?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 07:22:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 07:16:42 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 07:00:28 PM
The 30 year rate is 2.80%.

This isn't a 3 month play, this is looking at it thinking over the medium term rates are probably going to be significantly higher.

You're going to sit on a short for 2 to 5 years?

Why not? I've basically not been buying anything for a couple years. I have a bunch of cash not doing anything, and interest rates are basically zero so it just getting inflationed away (even if inflation is low, it isn't zero).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 07:33:22 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 07:22:39 PM
Why not? I've basically not been buying anything for a couple years. I have a bunch of cash not doing anything, and interest rates are basically zero so it just getting inflationed away (even if inflation is low, it isn't zero).

Please tell me what your play is, so that you don't get eaten alive by premiums.  Did you buy in to a bond short fund?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 07:40:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 07:33:22 PM
Please tell me what your play is, so that you don't get eaten alive by premiums. 

How are you going to stop that, are you going to pay my premiums for me?  :P

The bond short funds are for shorter term plays--they tend to have high fees and don't correlate well with the market over the long term. It is also less transparent exactly what they are doing.

I'm trying to short a long term US government bond index ETF. The fees I will pay are the trading commission (same as a stock trade) plus I will have to pay the dividends for as long as I hold the short (at less than 3% a year that isn't bad--this is what typically makes shorting bonds a loser). As long as I keep the account adequately funded I won't have to pay the brokerage interest (that shouldn't be hard since I have a bunch of cash doing nothing right now).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 08:36:40 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 07:40:47 PM
How are you going to stop that, are you going to pay my premiums for me?  :P

Bah.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 08:43:02 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 08:36:40 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 07:40:47 PM
How are you going to stop that, are you going to pay my premiums for me?  :P

Bah.

:P

Seriously, if you have a better idea how to play this, let me know.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 17, 2012, 08:47:44 PM
The ten-year hit an all-time (ever) low yield today. I can certainly follow the reasoning here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 09:06:26 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 08:43:02 PM
Seriously, if you have a better idea how to play this, let me know.

My point is shorts are great but expensive to maintain for any kind of time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 09:38:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 09:06:26 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 08:43:02 PM
Seriously, if you have a better idea how to play this, let me know.

My point is shorts are great but expensive to maintain for any kind of time.

The two reasons they are expensive:

1) You have to pay dividends. Here they are very low, and if they go up, that means major winnings.
2) The interest to the brokerage, but this is avoidable if you keep you account sufficiently funded. This normally has opportunity costs, but right now rates are near zero. If that changes, see #1 (major winnings).

I think right now is the exception to that rule.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 09:41:37 PM
What's your break-even point?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 17, 2012, 09:52:48 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 17, 2012, 08:47:44 PM
The ten-year hit an all-time (ever) low yield today. I can certainly follow the reasoning here.
The problem is that as interest rate decreases, bond's sensitivity to further decrease in the interest rate increases.  Japan used to have them at near zero, if that's where we're headed (and I sure hope it's not where we're headed).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 09:53:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 17, 2012, 09:41:37 PM
What's your break-even point?

~4.5% per year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 17, 2012, 10:01:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 17, 2012, 09:52:48 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 17, 2012, 08:47:44 PM
The ten-year hit an all-time (ever) low yield today. I can certainly follow the reasoning here.
The problem is that as interest rate decreases, bond's sensitivity to further decrease in the interest rate increases.  Japan used to have them at near zero, if that's where we're headed (and I sure hope it's not where we're headed).

Japanese 30 year bond yields are about 1.7% right now. I know they used to be lower. So there is potential for further declines. However, our inflation rate was 3% last year, and the dollar has not been doing well against many non euro countries.

I think you need to remember our respective track records on this stuff, and how pre 2008 you were so wrong on the housing market and I was so right. You even made a thread about how I was right about everything.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 17, 2012, 10:18:59 PM
 :). To be fair, I really have no strong opinion, my ears glaze over whenever a subject of bond yields comes up.  I just offer comments as they come, without any greater opinion about things.  This isn't at all like the housing market subject, which I thought about for years, and had a pretty strong belief on.  It's also a lot easier to predict an inefficient market with lots of dumb money than something like a bond market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 18, 2012, 10:57:53 AM
Facebook bombing.  :yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 18, 2012, 11:02:29 AM
:punk:

Below its initial price?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: derspiess on May 18, 2012, 11:05:20 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 18, 2012, 11:02:29 AM
:punk:

Below its initial price?

Down from its initial price, but still above the IPO price.  I wouldn't necessarily call that "bombing", but I'm no stock guru.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 18, 2012, 11:07:25 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 18, 2012, 10:57:53 AM
Facebook bombing.  :yeah:


Really?  It opened at $42.99, up from its initial $38.  How is that bombing?

Zuckerburg is now the 29th richest person in the world.  Over 1,000 Facebook employees became millionaires today.

Wouldn't call that bombing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 18, 2012, 11:08:41 AM
LOL, Bono just became the wealthiest musician in the world today, thanks to FB.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:09:58 AM
Been trying to short FB, but apparently it's not allowed. So much for free markets eh...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: derspiess on May 18, 2012, 11:14:17 AM
FB is currently at $40.32, up 6.45% from the IPO price.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 18, 2012, 11:15:33 AM
Quote from: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:09:58 AM
Been trying to short FB, but apparently it's not allowed. So much for free markets eh...

Ha!  When are people going to learn The Little Guy doesn't get first dibs on IPOs.  Hell, don't even get 4th dibs.

You'll be allowed to have a crack at it when it's at $77.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:18:44 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 18, 2012, 11:15:33 AM
Quote from: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:09:58 AM
Been trying to short FB, but apparently it's not allowed. So much for free markets eh...

Ha!  When are people going to learn The Little Guy doesn't get first dibs on IPOs.  Hell, don't even get 4th dibs.

You'll be allowed to have a crack at it when it's at $77.

Well, that's fine by me, because it sure isn't worth $40, let alone $77.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 18, 2012, 11:19:14 AM
Quote from: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:09:58 AM
Been trying to short FB, but apparently it's not allowed. So much for free markets eh...

Please elaborate.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:21:54 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 18, 2012, 11:19:14 AM
Quote from: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:09:58 AM
Been trying to short FB, but apparently it's not allowed. So much for free markets eh...

Please elaborate.

I'm using Tradefair, the spead betting site and have actually phoned the dealing people there, and was told that the market aren't allowing any shorts on Facebook.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on May 18, 2012, 11:22:09 AM
I knew a guy at Ubisoft who bought 5000 Apple shares at 5$.

I hate that guy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 18, 2012, 11:29:28 AM
Coming back. Hopefully not enough to drag the market back with it. Apple can do that, but I don't think FB has enough shares out there for it.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F9CZSd.png&hash=b19ee51391e65a1470815f4c7bf40fc396174a72)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 18, 2012, 11:37:09 AM
Quote from: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:21:54 AM
I'm using Tradefair, the spead betting site and have actually phoned the dealing people there, and was told that the market aren't allowing any shorts on Facebook.

So a betting site is saying they can't take the bet because the market is not allowed to short Facebook?

You're a Swedonite, right?  I wonder if this has anything to do with the Greece inspired "no naked short" rule in Europe.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:39:51 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 18, 2012, 11:37:09 AM
Quote from: PJL on May 18, 2012, 11:21:54 AM
I'm using Tradefair, the spead betting site and have actually phoned the dealing people there, and was told that the market aren't allowing any shorts on Facebook.

So a betting site is saying they can't take the bet because the market is not allowed to short Facebook?

You're a Swedonite, right?  I wonder if this has anything to do with the Greece inspired "no naked short" rule in Europe.

No, I'm in the UK, so it's either London or New York that is stopping shorts being allowed on Facebook right now. And even in Europe, naked shorts were only banned against bank shares.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 18, 2012, 11:47:21 AM
I think Facebook may not be shortable because it isn't marginable yet (too soon after IPO). Until it is marginable you can't buy it on margin or short it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habsburg on May 18, 2012, 02:30:28 PM
So four hours after opening FB trades at $38.10!!!!!!!  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: ulmont on May 18, 2012, 02:33:54 PM
Quote from: Habsburg on May 18, 2012, 02:30:28 PM
So four hours after opening FB trades at $38.10!!!!!!!  :P

QuoteHenry Blodget made the point earlier today that companies aren't going to go public anymore until they're ready to trade sideways. We shouldn't expect to see a huge pop. But Facebook is a really rare investment. Is it perhaps the biggest internet property in the world? Yes. Is it a big risk? Yes.

If you want a stable mature tech company at a reasonable valuation, you should buy Apple or Google. If you want a brand new start up, you should chase some flavor of the month, a lot of which are on the secondary market. If want something that's going to have explosive growth, you should have invested in Facebook a long time ago. [Note: For the moment, Robak is prescient. He made this comment before Facebook's IPO was flat.]
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/05/if-facebooks-profit-model-stays-the-same-this-valuation-doesnt-make-any-sense/257396/#
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 18, 2012, 02:54:25 PM
My grandparents rallied around the flag during the crisis of WWII and bought Liberty Bonds to keep our government financed.

In this time of financial crisis, I am now selling short the American government.

:swiss:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on May 19, 2012, 12:29:25 PM
Quote
FaceBook: The Complete Forensic Post-Mortem

While much has already been written on the topic of peak valuation, social bubbles popping, and the ethical social utility of yesterday's historically overhyped IPO, nobody has done an analysis of the actual stock trading dynamics as in-depth as the following complete forensic post-mortem by Nanex. Because more than anything, those tense 30 minutes between the scheduled open and the actual one (which just happened to coincide with the European close), showed just how reliant any form of public capital raising is on technology and electronic trading. And to think there was a time when an IPO simply allowed a company to raise cash: sadly it has devolved to the point where a public offering is a policy statement in support of a broken capital market, which however is fully in the hands of SkyNet, as yesterday's chain of events, so very humiliating for the Nasdaq, showed. From a delayed opening, to 2 hour trade confirmation delays, virtually everyone was in the dark about what was really happening behind the scenes! As the analysis below shows, what happened was at times sheer chaos, where everything was hanging by a thread, because if FB had gotten the BATS treatment, it was lights out for the stock market. Well, the D-Day was avoided for now, but at what cost? And how much over the greenshoe FaceBook stock overallotment did MS have to buy to prevent it from tumbling below $30 because as Reuters reminds us, "had Morgan Stanley bought all of the shares traded around $38 in the final 20 minutes of the day, it would have spent nearly $2 billion." What about the first defense of $38?  In other words: in order to make some $67 million for its Investment Banking unit, was MS forced to eat a several hundred million loss in its sales and trading division just to avoid looking like the world's worst underwriter ever? We won't know for a while, but in the meantime, here is a visual summary of the key events during yesterday's far less than historic IPO.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/facebook-complete-forensic-post-mortem (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/facebook-complete-forensic-post-mortem)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on May 19, 2012, 12:37:02 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 18, 2012, 11:15:33 AM

Ha!  When are people going to learn The Little Guy doesn't get first dibs on IPOs.  Hell, don't even get 4th dibs.

You'll be allowed to have a crack at it when it's at $77.

:yes: Indeed. Here's a comment from zerohedge that mirrors your sentiment. andrewp111 writes,
Quote
The REAL IPO of FB took place more than a year ago. Hundreds of insiders and thousands of "qualified investors"  already got their shares. The public IPO was just so they could unload their shares onto the suckers. Anyone who was paying attention knew this would happen.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 19, 2012, 12:48:22 PM
Plenty of shares available at the IPO price now.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 19, 2012, 12:49:23 PM
I'll pass.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on May 19, 2012, 01:39:52 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on May 19, 2012, 12:49:23 PM
I'll pass.  :)

Yeah, I get the impression it'll be downhill all the way till what, a rally around $10, then again at $5 and a sustained effort by investors to optimistically keep it at around $1 in the long run.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 19, 2012, 01:47:14 PM
Quote from: mongers on May 19, 2012, 01:39:52 PM
Yeah, I get the impression it'll be downhill all the way till what, a rally around $10, then again at $5 and a sustained effort by investors to optimistically keep it at around $1 in the long run.

I sincerely doubt it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 21, 2012, 07:48:25 AM
Facefuck trading at 37 in pre-open market this AM.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 21, 2012, 08:22:05 AM
Ed: WINNAR
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 21, 2012, 08:49:05 AM
Holy fuck, Facebook slaughterhouse this morning. -4.50.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 21, 2012, 08:54:13 AM
-5 or so @ ~33.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on May 21, 2012, 12:10:35 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on May 21, 2012, 08:54:13 AM
-5 or so @ ~33.  :lol:

Bugger, should have tried to short it over the weekend. Oh well, not sure if it will go much lower for the time being.

Actually, tried to short it earlier, but still can't do that. I'm sure once it goes below $20, they'll allow it then.... :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 21, 2012, 02:45:11 PM
~20 min before the close, bear call credit spreads on both SPY and QQQ. PJL, if you do want to, you can short the Nasdaq with QQQ.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on May 21, 2012, 04:13:53 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 21, 2012, 02:45:11 PM
~20 min before the close, bear call credit spreads on both SPY and QQQ. PJL, if you do want to, you can short the Nasdaq with QQQ.

I can short the Nasdaq on Tradefair, but I don't really want to, it's too unpredictable. It's just Facebook they're not letting me short.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 21, 2012, 10:00:57 PM
I was surprised to learn in an article about FB that Google's PE is only 18 right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: CountDeMoney on May 22, 2012, 07:05:44 AM
Trading this AM at $34.03, apparently.

FB has lost $11B, Zuckerberg alone is worth $2B less today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on May 22, 2012, 11:37:32 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 22, 2012, 07:05:44 AM
Trading this AM at $34.03, apparently.

FB has lost $11B, Zuckerberg alone is worth $2B less today.

Well, was he ever woth that extra $2G in the first place
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 23, 2012, 12:42:14 PM
So what do you guys think about going long the euro? FXE is around 1.25 now, and there has to be a bump when Greece bails.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 23, 2012, 01:05:53 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 23, 2012, 12:42:14 PM
So what do you guys think about going long the euro? FXE is around 1.25 now, and there has to be a bump when Greece bails.

I'm not a currency trader (or any kind of trader). But why do you think that? The euro opened against the dollar at something like 1.17, and I think it was under 0.90 for a while. The eurozone isn't some super cheap region with an obviously undervalued curency.

The ECB also has been less interventionist than the fed--if things hit the wall they could reduce interest rates and accept inflation, which would be bearish for the euro.

It is also very possible a Greek exit is going to be obscenely messy. I realize you are talking about speculating on the currency and wouldn't be subject to that, but if people look at a Greek mess and think, "I don't want to go through that" subsequently avoding Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, and Ireland, that is going to put downward pressure on the euro as well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 23, 2012, 01:37:28 PM
Theory is the Greek exit is already baked in and the thing would cause them to buy euros. Of course if it just stoked fear about Spain and/or the ECB to print that could go out the window. Dunno, I never trade forex.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 23, 2012, 03:04:07 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 23, 2012, 01:37:28 PM
Theory is the Greek exit is already baked in and the thing would cause them to buy euros. Of course if it just stoked fear about Spain and/or the ECB to print that could go out the window. Dunno, I never trade forex.

First, I don't think a Greek exit is baked in. If you look at gambling markets like intrade, it isn't.

Second, Greece is a very small country. The extent to which it uses its crappy new currency to buy euros will be partially offset by people using euros to buy the crappy new currency, and in both cases the effect will be muted because Greece is so small. The implications for Spain and Italy are much larger.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 23, 2012, 07:01:58 PM
Now that I am home on a computer that doesn't block gambling sites, Intrade has the odds of a country dropping the euro by 12/31/2012 at 41.5%. If you think that is a sure thing, that seems to be the bet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 23, 2012, 08:35:31 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 23, 2012, 07:01:58 PM
Now that I am home on a computer that doesn't block gambling sites, Intrade has the odds of a country dropping the euro by 12/31/2012 at 41.5%. If you think that is a sure thing, that seems to be the bet.
Are those bets euro- or dollar-denominated?   :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 23, 2012, 08:44:01 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 23, 2012, 08:35:31 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 23, 2012, 07:01:58 PM
Now that I am home on a computer that doesn't block gambling sites, Intrade has the odds of a country dropping the euro by 12/31/2012 at 41.5%. If you think that is a sure thing, that seems to be the bet.
Are those bets euro- or dollar-denominated?   :hmm:
:lol: Dollar.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 24, 2012, 10:57:01 AM
There was a rumor on the twitter machine yesterday that Greece would go 1/1/2013. I think it depends more on the Greeks themselves. The rest of the EZ seems to be pretty supportive of keeping them in.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 24, 2012, 10:59:43 AM
I would love for Greece to walk away from the deal.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on May 24, 2012, 11:58:38 AM
Quote
Europeans Betting Millions That Facebook Will Plunge Another 30% By December

While US banks have been busy refocusing their "creative financial products"-time over the past two months, instead defending against allegations of muppetism, or explaining how hedging is really betting it all on red, and then doubling down (just because the casino supposedly has the bank's back), Europe has been busy coming up with new and creative ways of betting on the demise of FaceBook. While official shorting of the most overhyped and overvalued company in history only became a reality for most investors today, Europe's banks have a head start courtesy of "innovated" structured products created by UBS, Commerzbank and Julius Baer. As Bloomberg explains, "the most actively traded structured products tied to Facebook since its IPO have been so-called put warrants, whose buyers profit if the shares drop below a pre-defined level, in some cases as low as $22, data compiled by Bloomberg show. UBS AG (UBSN), Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Julius Baer Group Ltd. (BAER) are among lenders that listed 1,504 warrants and certificates in Europe linked to shares of the social networking site that were offered at $38...."There has been strong demand on the put side, with the ratio between puts and calls at around 70/30" with "some people expressing deep downside views," Heiko Geiger, the head of public distribution for Germany and Austria at Bank Vontobel AG in Frankfurt, said in an interview yesterday."
The Facebook strange attractor: magic number 22. With a $ sign. From Bloomberg:

Bank Vontobel's best-selling Facebook-linked product is a put warrant that will reward investors if the shares are below $22, the so-called strike price, in December, said Geiger. Put warrants give investors a cash payment depending on how far a stock falls below a set level.

Julius Baer sold the securities with the largest trading volumes, two put warrants with strikes of $35 and $30 on the Scoach exchange in Zurich. Investors traded 402,000 contracts yesterday valued at $335,780 of the former and 603,000 warrants for $322,620 of the latter, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Zurich-based structured products distributor EFG Financial Products AG added Facebook shares to a basket of 10 social media companies that are tracked by a certificate that has traded on Scoach since last month, it said in an e-mailed statement.


Of course, should FB implode to the degree expected, while on one hand it will subtract meaningful points from GDP growth as retail ends up, once again, poorer, the one biggest winner will be securities law attorneys, who are sensing so much blood courtesy of FaceBook's brand new multi-billion cash hoard, that Zuckerberg will have no choice but to 'invest' almost exclusively in legal defense teams and settlement reserves, leaving him with no time, or money, to find (and fund) the next even lower IRR social-media bolt on acquisition.




Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 24, 2012, 12:30:39 PM
RIMM down to ten bucks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 25, 2012, 03:14:59 PM
Carl Icahn is buying up a big piece of Chesapeake Energy. Hopefully he can slap some people around.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 25, 2012, 03:28:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 25, 2012, 03:14:59 PM
Carl Icahn is buying up a big piece of Chesapeake Energy. Hopefully he can slap some people around.

Oh snap, that was fast.

Quote

Icahn seeks removal of 4 Chesapeake directors

13 min ago4:13 p.m. May 25, 2012

- Matt Andrejczak

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on May 29, 2012, 07:59:40 PM
So I enrolled in the ESPP today.  Company stock at a 10% discount with no brokerage fees and a ~3.65% quarterly dividend?  YES PLZ.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on May 29, 2012, 08:00:24 PM
I used to own CHK years ago.  Made a killing on it. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 29, 2012, 08:25:59 PM
Quote from: Caliga on May 29, 2012, 07:59:40 PM
So I enrolled in the ESPP today.  Company stock at a 10% discount with no brokerage fees and a ~3.65% quarterly dividend?  YES PLZ.

My discount is 15%. :nelson:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on May 29, 2012, 09:08:51 PM
Nice. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 29, 2012, 09:11:21 PM
Cal seizes the moral high ground. :weep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 01, 2012, 07:17:45 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fthechive.files.wordpress.com%2F2012%2F05%2Fdar-thursday-26.jpg&hash=35a1dd82de6a10d5c3342fbd69dcb4b3082ee0b1)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on June 01, 2012, 07:42:45 PM
As long as there are no Cleveland Steamers on the line, we're good. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 01, 2012, 07:47:43 PM
 :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 06, 2012, 04:02:41 PM
Trading Twitter



Quote from: CNBC

A new hedge fund that uses Twitter to determine its trading strategy outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the average hedge fund in its first month of trading.

Financial News called the news "the first sign that social media data can be used successfully to enhance electronic trading techniques."

London-based Derwent Capital, which bills itself as "Europe's first social media-based Hedge Fund," returned 1.85% in July, according to Financial News. The S&P 500 fell 2.2% during that time, while the average hedge fund made 0.76%.

The fund, which declined to comment, uses sentiment data mined from millions of Twitter messages, or 'tweets', to predict market movements. The strategy is based on research published by the University of Manchester and Indiana University in October which demonstrated that the number of emotional words on Twitter could be used to predict daily moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Derwent scans 10% of available tweets at random and then sorts them into moods by focusing on words like "alert," "vital" or 'happy." That data is then used to predict market movement. The initial research, Financial News reports, predicted movement in liquid stocks with 88% accuracy.
"The Twitter algorithm was very very useful [in July]. 

Sentiment was extremely dominant in the markets, so to have that signal was a huge advantage," Paul Hawtin, Derwent's founder and fund manager, told CNBC on Friday.

According to a press release put out by Derwent in May, real-time "sentiment analysis" provides what the fund "hopes will be an invaluable insight into the 'fear and greed' aspect within the financial markets."

"For years investors have widely accepted that financial markets are driven by fear and greed but we've never before had the technology or data to be able to quantify human emotion," Hawtin said at the time. "This is the 4th dimension."


Interesting. I'd love to see how they turn Twitter aggregation into trading decisions. A lot of traders do monitor it all during the trading day and get their news that way.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 06, 2012, 07:49:33 PM
Very good day in the market today.  S&P up 2.25%  Made up some ground from a very bad May.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 07, 2012, 07:08:05 PM
Bonds still at hyper low yields. I wonder how much of that is the euro carry trade (borrow in euros, buy US Treasuries, maximize your yield with the exchange difference), and what would happen to the US bond market if there was suddenly some perception that the euro crisis was about to be solved.

Same thing in the Japanese, UK and Swiss bonds right now too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on June 15, 2012, 03:36:04 PM
With my gut giving me the queasies about Europe, I decided to cash in my short term stocks and am only keeping a few long term holdings.

I've got a bad feeling about Monday.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 15, 2012, 03:43:38 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on June 15, 2012, 03:36:04 PM

I've got a bad feeling about Monday.

I'm also totally out except one option straddle. That way, I win if we go up or down a lot. If we stay flat I lose.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on June 17, 2012, 07:45:03 PM
I may have bet wrong. :lmfao:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 25, 2012, 11:38:48 AM
Chesapeake still fucking up.


Quote
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK -8.81% Chief Executive Officer Aubrey McClendon sent emails about efforts to keep bidding prices low for land in an apparent violation of antitrust laws, according to a Reuters report on Monday. Shares of Chesapeake fell nearly 9% as the worst perfomer in the S&P 500. The Reuters story cited internal Chesapeake emails the news agency had seen. One email from a Chesapeake deputy to McClendon said he had been in touch with rival firm Encana CA:ECA -4.71% ECA -4.88% "to discuss how they want to handle the entities we are both working to avoid us bidding each other up in the interim." McClendon's answer to this was, "thanks," according to the report. An antitrust expert contacted by Reuters said the emails amount to a "red flag" for collusion and market allocation. Spokesmen for Encana and Chesapeake confirmed they had discussions about a formal joint venture but no agreement was reached

Eventually, this thing is gonna be a great buy. Maybe they need Carl Icahn or somebody to come in.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 02, 2012, 12:44:07 PM
Now that RIMM is selling in the single digits, I'm wondering how likely it might be that somebody just says fuck it and buys them for their patent portfolio.   :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 03, 2012, 11:44:50 AM

Quote


Kass: Curbing My Enthusiasm (http://www.thestreet.com/story/11605261/1/kass-curbing-my-enthusiasm.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN)

NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Strategic adjustments:

    I have slightly adjusted my S&P 500 fair market value downward from 1455 to 1430 -- the market is still about 5% undervalued.

    A trading range of 1290 to 1430 seems probable for the balance of 2012.

    Against the anticipated trading range above, reward and risk remain basically in balance (70 S&P points up and 70 S&P points down).

Changes

Let's investigate what fundamental, sentiment, valuation and political changes have occurred since my last fair market value update five weeks ago.

   U.S. Economy: Deteriorating. Domestic economic data have been disappointing relative to my modest expectations. First-quarter 2012 real GDP growth came in a tad under 2%, and second-quarter 2012 real GDP growth will be challenged to match the previous quarter. We seem destined to muddle through this year, closer to 1.5% growth compared to our previous below-consensus expectation of 2.0% growth. Payroll growth seems stuck at below-consensus levels, and the rate of growth in U.S. manufacturing activity is decelerating at a more rapid pace. On the other hand, some major positives for worldwide growth include global easing, the drubbing in commodities (a tax cut to the consumer and a prop to corporate profit margins, which argues in favor of an extended period of easing) and the improvement in the U.S. housing market (the sector represents the greatest divergence in economic series relative to consensus). Business and consumer confidence, which was still elevated as recently as last month seems destined to drop in the months ahead amid EU concerns and U.S. political concerns (the fiscal cliff).

    Europe's Economy: Negative With Little Visibility.
Despite some steps in a positive direction achieved at the recent Brussels meeting, a lot of structural issues and heavy lifting remain. More importantly, the bigger issues of insured bank deposits, eurobonds, fiscal integration and a larger scale for both the ESM and ESFS were not discussed in any detail. Here is the extreme negative case for the eurozone, as told by Byron Wien. This week I expect the ECB to cut its target rate by 25 basis points and its deposit rate paid on reserves by 10 basis points, in line with general expectations.

    China's Economy: Heading Toward a Hard Landing. A soft landing no longer seems to be the strong base case scenario as there are emerging question marks over the strength of the region's economy and the validity of its data.

    Corporate Profits: Consensus Forecast Is Now in Jeopardy.
While only one-sixth of aggregate S&P profits come from Europe, the region's economic outlook is ambiguous at best. I am now skeptical of consensus eurozone real GDP growth expectations of a modest reduction in 2012 and a small increase in 2013. The U.S. remains the best house in a bad neighborhood: with 1.5% to 2% real GDP growth and less than 2% inflation, nominal GDP growth is likely to be a subpar 3% to 4% this year, translating to about 5% to 6% sales and profit growth. (Of course, most realtors will tell you never buy the best house in a bad neighborhood.)

    Investor Sentiment and Expectations: Still Low. Most classes of investors have de-risked, which is not surprising considering sluggish worldwide economic growth, still elevated unemployment and the ongoing eurozone crisis. Add in the JPMorgan Chase (JPM) large derivative loss and the Libor manipulation of Barclays (BCS) and other banks, and a show-me attitude will likely continue for some time. Low trading volume, dominated still by high-frequency strategies, and the absence of inflows into domestic equity funds are a reflection of investor indifference. Stated simply, stocks remain an unpopular asset class, and the reallocation out of bonds and into stocks looks to be a more distant event.

    Political: The Outlook for the November Election Remains Uncertain.
The Supreme Court's healthcare decision has likely further divided our dysfunctional political leaders/parties. As a result, an August 2011-like impasse on the fiscal cliff is more likely. A potential positive to the capital markets (based on the general belief that a Republican administration will be more business- and market-friendly) is that the Republican Party is gaining some traction as compared to several months ago.


Today I have updated the probabilities of the four outcomes to reflect the six changing conditions listed above. In large measure, the worsening situation in both Europe and the U.S. is leading me to further reduce my calculation of the S&P 500's fair market value from 1455 to 1430, which is still about 5% above the cash level at Monday's close of trading (1358):

    I am keeping the chances of the two tail events -- namely, a reacceleration of U.S. growth and a U.S. recession in 2013, at 5% each.

    I am increasing the probability of sub-1.5% 2013 real GDP growth from 25% to 35%.

    I am reducing the likelihood of my baseline, muddle-through scenario (defined as 2013 real GDP growth of between 1.5% and 2.0%) from 65% to 55%.

My base case of muddling through, with a slightly better than 50/50 probability, yields an S&P 500 price target of 1540, far higher than my fair market value calculation of 1430 and well above cash (1358). The probability of muddling through, however, has been ratcheted down and will likely move still lower in the next month, due to a continuation of a weakening domestic economy and the bandages applied to the eurozone. Below-consensus growth (scenario No. 3 below), which is now accorded an increased 35% probability (the second-highest), yields an S&P 500 target of 1290, below both the current level of S&P 500 cash (1358) and well under my 1430 fair market value estimate. (These two most likely outcomes account for a 90% probability.)

S&P cash closed yesterday at 1358. In all likelihood, I expect the S&P 500 to be contained within the range of 1290 and my fair market value of 1430 over the balance of the year, representing an almost perfect balance between reward and risk. This yields a generally underwhelming and less-than-compelling investment equation. Taken literally, this would mean that there are about 70 S&P points of risk and an equal amount of S&P points of potential reward. (In other words, there will be a premium on individual stock selection over market risk-on/risk-off decisions in the months ahead.)

As I have repeatedly written, my methodology, though appearing precise, recognizes the difficulty of attaining investment precision given the numerous moving parts (economic, interest rates, sentiment/psychology and exogenous factors) in its calculation. It is intended more as a thoughtful guideline (of reasonable expectations/outcomes) than an exercise that should be taken literally. (Input your own probabilities and outcomes to produce your own market expectations.)

Below are the criteria and methodology I use to evaluate the S&P 500 and upon which I conclude that fair market value is approximately 1430, or about 5% above Friday's closing quote of 1358.

Scenario No. 1 -- Economic Reacceleration Above Consensus (probability stays at 5%)
: The pace of U.S. economic recovery reaccelerates to above-consensus forecasts (3%+ real GDP growth) based on pro-growth fiscal policies geared toward generating job growth; corporate profit margins being preserved (with low inflation and contained wage growth); interest rates remaining low; and durable spending (housing and autos) recovering sharply as pent-up demand is unleashed. The $550 billion fiscal cliff is whittled down to only about $150 billion (subtracting less than 0.5% from 2013 real GDP) as Governor Romney wins the Presidency and the Republican Party gains control of the Senate and regains the House. Europe stabilizes (and experiences a shallow recession), and China has a soft landing (with GDP growth tracking in excess of 8%). There is no QE3. S&P 500 profit estimates for 2013 are raised to $110-$113 per share. Stocks, valued at 15.5x under this outcome, have 26% upside over the next nine months. S&P target is 1725.

Scenario No. 2 -- Recession (probability stays at 5%):
The U.S. enters a recession precipitated by a loss of business and consumer confidence, producing a fall in manufacturing output and personal consumption expenditures. The Democratic Party regains the White House and the Senate, but the Republicans maintain control of the House of Representative. The schism between the two parties persists. Partisanship leads to rancor during summer debt-ceiling deliberations (instituted because of slowing nominal GDP) similar to that of August 2011. Confidence deteriorates further, and the housing market seizes up as bank lending becomes more restrictive when the fiscal cliff is not remedied/addressed (the hit to GDP is -1.5% to -2.0%). QE3 is instituted but fails to contain the economic weakness. A series of European bank failures and EU sovereign debt defaults contribute to a deepening European recession and a hard landing in China and India. S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2013 are materially reduced to $75 to $80 per share. Stocks, valued at 11.5x under this outcome, have 35% downside risk over the next nine months. S&P target is 890.

Scenario No. 3 -- Below-Consensus Economic Growth (probability goes from 25% to 35%): The U.S. experiences a disappointing sub-1.5% real GDP growth rate, Europe experiences a medium-scale recession, and China's economic growth disappoints modestly relative to expectations. QE3 is initiated and has a modestly favorable impact on aggregate growth. Obama regains the presidency, and the Republicans control Congress. The fiscal cliff is reduced by less than half (to $275 billion to $350 billion). The S&P 500 profit forecast for 2013 is reduced to levels slightly below 2012's results and below consensus at $98 to $100 per share, as corporations' pricing power is limited and profit margins are pressured. Stocks, valued at 13.0x under this outcome, have 5% downside risk over the next nine months. S&P target is 1290.

Scenario No. 4 -- Muddle Through (probability goes from 65% to 55%): The U.S. muddles through, with 1.5% to 2.25% real GDP growth, and the European economies suffer a modest (but contained) business downturn. China's and India's economies grow in line relative to consensus forecasts. There is no further quantitative easing. Obama regains the White House, and the Republicans control Congress. The fiscal cliff is reduced by half (to $275 billion). S&P 500 profits for 2013 trend toward a range of $107-$109 per share as some modest margin slippage occurs (coincident with escalating inflationary pressures). Stocks, valued at 14.25x under this outcome, have 13% upside over the next nine months. S&P target is 1540.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 05, 2012, 01:02:22 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 25, 2012, 11:38:48 AM
Chesapeake still fucking up.


Quote
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK -8.81% Chief Executive Officer Aubrey McClendon sent emails about efforts to keep bidding prices low for land in an apparent violation of antitrust laws, according to a Reuters report on Monday. Shares of Chesapeake fell nearly 9% as the worst perfomer in the S&P 500. The Reuters story cited internal Chesapeake emails the news agency had seen. One email from a Chesapeake deputy to McClendon said he had been in touch with rival firm Encana CA:ECA -4.71% ECA -4.88% "to discuss how they want to handle the entities we are both working to avoid us bidding each other up in the interim." McClendon's answer to this was, "thanks," according to the report. An antitrust expert contacted by Reuters said the emails amount to a "red flag" for collusion and market allocation. Spokesmen for Encana and Chesapeake confirmed they had discussions about a formal joint venture but no agreement was reached

Eventually, this thing is gonna be a great buy. Maybe they need Carl Icahn or somebody to come in.


Carl Icahn did in fact come in and bought up a 7% or so share. He's pushing to be on the board. New sheriff in town. I am putting 400 shares of Chesapeake in the IRA today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 06, 2012, 02:29:40 PM
Best Buy laying off 2400, including most of the Geek Squad.


Sorry, geeks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 06, 2012, 03:48:59 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 06, 2012, 02:29:40 PM
Best Buy laying off 2400, including most of the Geek Squad.


Sorry, geeks.
Wow, free market does work.  Eventually.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 06, 2012, 03:51:06 PM
Hey, that's false advertising.  That's far from "most of the Geek Squad".  Fuck capitalism.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on July 06, 2012, 04:33:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 29, 2012, 08:25:59 PM
Quote from: Caliga on May 29, 2012, 07:59:40 PM
So I enrolled in the ESPP today.  Company stock at a 10% discount with no brokerage fees and a ~3.65% quarterly dividend?  YES PLZ.

My discount is 15%. :nelson:

You fuckers and your ESPPs. <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on July 06, 2012, 04:35:30 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 02, 2012, 12:44:07 PM
Now that RIMM is selling in the single digits, I'm wondering how likely it might be that somebody just says fuck it and buys them for their patent portfolio.   :hmm:

I'd jump on some of that if I had the cash handy.  My meager IRA is all tied up in Blackrock Kelso (BKCC) at the moment, though, and I have no impetus to change that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on July 12, 2012, 06:36:22 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FP1-BG995_FED_G_20120711183905.jpg&hash=cc1738ff3b431b388950ffa461c0e25401a01303)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 12, 2012, 06:56:12 AM
So basically, fall was stopped / rally was resumed every time they pumped fresh air into the collapsing bubble?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 12, 2012, 11:35:04 AM
OT-extended is really small compared to the others.

Also, there's only so much left of the short term treasuries to sell. They're running out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 13, 2012, 02:08:41 PM
The PFG guy is screwed. Here's his suicide note.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/full-pfg-ceo-suicide-note

Maybe better if his suicide attempt had been more successful than his business,
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 09:44:27 AM
Market is dumping while Bernanke talks. They aren't hearing the "easing" word. It's like a meth addict. Give me what I want or I'll throw a tantrum and break your stuff.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on July 17, 2012, 09:46:45 AM
I seem to have the kiss of death for stocks lately.  I picked up PBI, thinking they looked undervalued and had an awesome dividend...and it has been sliding further downward ever since...  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 09:48:27 AM
Dumping?  The S&P is down half a percent.  That's daily noise.

Tonto:  I bought some PBI as well.  As long as they don't go belly up and continue to pay a decent (great) dividend, who cares about the price?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on July 17, 2012, 09:51:09 AM
I know...I am still thinking of selling another loser I have and picking up some more.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 10:13:37 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 09:48:27 AM
Dumping?  The S&P is down half a percent.  That's daily noise.

Tonto:  I bought some PBI as well.  As long as they don't go belly up and continue to pay a decent (great) dividend, who cares about the price?

Looking at the chart I'm watching it does look like dumping. The thing is down a couple of S&P points almost vertically. But it's only a 5 day timeframe so it looks like a lot. It seems lots of people are very happy with the 1350 SPY level. It's like a magnet.

PBI has taken a beating. Most analysts put it's fair market value at about $19-$22 though. Trading below $14 now. I think people are wary of a dividend that high, frankly. I looked up their balance sheet a couple months ago, and it didn't seem terrible. High debt, but decent free cash flow. They're paying out a lot of their revenue in dividends, obviously.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 10:19:21 AM
I'm not worried about the market for postage meters disappearing.  For that to happen junk mail would have to disappear.  I do however worry about what happens to PBI's cash flow and balance sheet when Teh Fed tightens money.  Seems to me the smart thing to do would be to use revenue to pay down debt instead of paying out dividends.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 10:29:01 AM
True, but the Fed is committed to keeping rates low at least through 2014 if you believe what they are telling us. PBI reports earnings on August 2nd if you're interested in checking it out. I like to listen to the conference calls on stock I own to see what the guidance is and how they answer the questions from analysts. Somebody is bound to ask if they plan to lower the dividend. You can download the audio or listen live. (http://www.investorrelations.pitneybowes.com/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=83377&eventID=4805528)


Edit: Looks like the mini-dump is over, and we've gained back most of it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 11:31:18 AM
And now we're into the green for the day Dr. Doom.  :nelson:

Except for PBI, which seems to be looking for a floor at $10.  :lol:

Just talked to my ESPP guys, and they charge $10/transaction + 7 cents/share to unload.  At first I was a little PO'ed but now I'm thinking that's a typical bid-offer spread.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 11:38:51 AM
Also MIM, what was that REIT that you gave you wood?  I'm thinking if housing prices have bottomed it's a good time to get in.

Can you DRIP REITs?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 11:40:44 AM
Yeah, I switched from weekly puts to calls a little while ago. 

I'm up a hundred bucks. :p


Gambling with the weekly options is tough when we get these back and forth days. You're almost guaranteed to lose if you are putting in stops instead of watching it constantly. They all get shaken out.

Those trade fees aren't really that bad. Only discount brokerages and online trade platforms have better.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 12:23:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 11:38:51 AM
Also MIM, what was that REIT that you gave you wood?  I'm thinking if housing prices have bottomed it's a good time to get in.

Can you DRIP REITs?

Oh, sure you can. May have to call to set that up. I trade my IRA using Fidelity's online setup and I haven't seen a way to input a drip order that way. I've been taking my dividends in cash and then adding to positions manually. Not all REITs offer the drip option I think. Most of the ones you'd want to be in do.

I only own REITs and MLPs in the IRA though. Too weird for the tax returns otherwise.

I own KMP and LRY in there.

KMP = Kinder Morgan (Master Limited Partnership)

LRY = Liberty Property Trust

When you're looking at REITs, the P/E will look insane, like in the hundreds. That's normal. Also, they equalize the balance sheet so the assets and liabilities are the same.

Kinder is a pipeline operator and Liberty is a commercial real estate operator, so neither of those is residential real estate.

For mortgages, I've been considering Annaly. NLY. Screaming dividend (12.9%), cheap price at seventeen bucks. 70% margins. Some shorter-term funding risk if interest rates go up quickly I bet (a risk with any of these I think). ~85% leverage. Another very similar is AGNC American Capital Agency Group, Very similar numbers and balance sheets, trading about $35 with a dividend a little over 14%.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 12:32:40 PM
Wow those weekly calls I mentioned are now pulling me up by over $400. Too bad I only have fifteen of them. Keep going, market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 12:34:29 PM
Can you give me a little bit on how NLY and AGNC operate?  Do they just buy and hold residential mortgages? 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 12:46:21 PM
Yeah they hold mortgages. Mostly federally-insured CDOs and targeted mortgage pass-through securities. Meaning bundles of mortgages that fit the profiles they target--income levels, collateral backing, geographical market location, stuff like that. They usually go around and study the different cities and decide where the strength is and all of that. Incidentally, in case you care, AGNC has NO analysts ratings that are lower than buy right now.

Also, there is a mortgage REIT ETF that's been way outperforming the S&P and yields 10.5%. Symbol MORT.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 12:49:20 PM
I checked them out on etrade because you were too goddamn slow with your response.

I don't really get it.  If principle *and* interest payments are federally guaranteed, why are they paying such mongo dividend yields?  Where's the downside?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 12:53:11 PM
Also, holding mortgages doesn't give you any upside potential if residential housing prices rise.

You happen to know of a way to make that bet, other than with sort of short term index future?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 01:00:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 12:49:20 PM
I checked them out on etrade because you were too goddamn slow with your response.

I don't really get it.  If principle *and* interest payments are federally guaranteed, why are they paying such mongo dividend yields?  Where's the downside?

You remember 2008?  :P

REITs and MLPs devote all their profits to dividends. Well, that's a little simplistic, but basically true. So mongo dividends is basically them zeroing out the balance sheet. The main risk I see would be an interest rate spike. The value of the shares would drop like a stone, I would think. As for the risk of the loans themselves, I'm not sure of the mechanics behind the federal loan guarantees. It does sound like a win-win investment for the REIT if not for the taxpayer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 01:08:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 12:53:11 PM
Also, holding mortgages doesn't give you any upside potential if residential housing prices rise.

You happen to know of a way to make that bet, other than with sort of short term index future?

You want a bet on rising housing values? The ones that took the biggest hit when the values went down were the builders and construction dudes. Like Lennar and Pulte. ETFs maybe XHB and ITB.

I don't know how much it will help them now that they are going back up, but some of those companies have been recovering recently so maybe. But those are builders specifically and not necessary into the rising value of existing homes, which mostly accrues to the individual owners. Many of whom, ATM, are banks. :P

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 17, 2012, 01:29:15 PM
Thanks MIM.  You can take a break now if you want.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 17, 2012, 07:57:51 PM
My big question mark in the housing market is the outstanding pending foreclosures in the pipeline. The biggest reason prices are going up is because there isn't much supply. There isn't much supply for two reasons, underwater owners like me can't sell, and all the foreclosures out there waiting to happen.

They've only gotten through like ten or fifteen percent of the pending foreclosures, and people have been waiting years. In my state, we passed a law that put some requirements on the administrative foreclosure process that basically brought a halt to it happening at all. They went from 5000 a month down to 150 a month. All those people are waiting to get it over with.

When you are foreclosed, you have to pay taxes on the writeoff amount as income. There is an exemption on that tax until the end of 2012, so when these poor people get delayed, it's gonna cost them 30% or whatever in taxes they otherwise wouldn't have had. Houses here are underwater by a hundred grand or more. That's a big tax bill.

Now in the last couple months, the banks have changed tactics. The foreclosure process is too clogged, so now they've begun doing judicial foreclosures instead. That's basically where they sue you to take the property in court. That process is fast. The judge makes his decision and the bank gets the house.

My concern is that once the judicial process ramps up, the houses will begin dumping on the market. Might not happen, but who knows. Banks could sit on them as long as they want theoretically.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on July 18, 2012, 04:34:53 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 06, 2012, 03:48:59 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 06, 2012, 02:29:40 PM
Best Buy laying off 2400, including most of the Geek Squad.


Sorry, geeks.
Wow, free market does work.  Eventually.

I was recently in a best buy. A very odd assortment of products: TVs, cameras, CDs, appliances, computers, computer games. Mostly stuff you can get at a big box retailer or order online, probably at a discount. I would think their selling point would be the sales staff, but man did they look scuzzie. Lots of tattoos and piercings, one guy that was apparently ignorant of his need for a bra.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 18, 2012, 04:37:34 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 18, 2012, 04:34:53 PM
I was recently in a best buy. A very odd assortment of products: TVs, cameras, CDs, appliances, computers, computer games. Mostly stuff you can get at a big box retailer or order online, probably at a discount. I would think their selling point would be the sales staff, but man did they look scuzzie. Lots of tattoos and piercings, one guy that was apparently ignorant of his need for a bra.
Yes, Best Buy stores are truly unpleasant, I don't know how they stay in business.  Those warranties they hang on unsuspecting rubes must be made of pure profit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on July 18, 2012, 04:45:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 18, 2012, 04:37:34 PM
Yes, Best Buy stores are truly unpleasant, I don't know how they stay in business.  Those warranties they hang on unsuspecting rubes must be made of pure profit.

I buy those warranties.  :blush:

In general, I usually turn them down. But for some reason where I live I blow out my modems almost every 12-18 months. Now I get the warranties for $10, and by the time the modem blows out it is no longer carried and I get whatever is in the rough price range of the store (hence a modem upgrade). I do have to keep paying the $10 though. And eventually the joke will be on me when Best Buy goes belly up and I have a worthless $10 warranty.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 18, 2012, 05:13:12 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 18, 2012, 04:45:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 18, 2012, 04:37:34 PM
Yes, Best Buy stores are truly unpleasant, I don't know how they stay in business.  Those warranties they hang on unsuspecting rubes must be made of pure profit.

I buy those warranties.  :blush:

In general, I usually turn them down. But for some reason where I live I blow out my modems almost every 12-18 months. Now I get the warranties for $10, and by the time the modem blows out it is no longer carried and I get whatever is in the rough price range of the store (hence a modem upgrade). I do have to keep paying the $10 though. And eventually the joke will be on me when Best Buy goes belly up and I have a worthless $10 warranty.
Well, my statement was too sweeping.  If you can adverse select warranties well enough, there is no reason to not buy them.  Seems like you're doing a good job sticking it to the insurance companies, so well done there.

In general, though, getting a warranty is just wasting money, the profit margins are humongous on them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 18, 2012, 06:39:23 PM
IBM 188.25 +4.60‎ (2.50%‎)

:)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 18, 2012, 07:00:46 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on July 18, 2012, 06:39:23 PM
IBM 188.25 +4.60‎ (2.50%‎)

:)


That's a big weight in the Dow. It'll be hard for the market to not gap up in the morning.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 18, 2012, 07:05:01 PM
Last I looked, it was up over 5 in the after market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 25, 2012, 02:21:44 AM
Apple missed earnings expectations :nelson:

Steve Jobs can only die once, apparently.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 25, 2012, 03:00:03 AM
Netflix and BWLD failed badly too. We'll be down in the am. I have a straddle with a 700 dollar crossover on. (I had puts while the market was going down and bought offsetting calls when it bottomed out and I had a 700 dollar gain).  That was before AAPL announced. They are down 30 bucks in after hours, and that's gonna kill the Nasdaq, as well as lots of other things. The strange thing is, the Fed leaked rumors about considering more QE and AAPL still destroyed the bump from that.


I seriously think more QE will have diminishing returns. The more we do it the less it matters. Especially if Europe and Japan are doing it too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 25, 2012, 07:33:52 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 25, 2012, 02:21:44 AM
Apple missed earnings expectations :nelson:

Steve Jobs can only die once, apparently.
Once is enough.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 25, 2012, 06:14:12 PM
And the lawsuits over LIBOR are starting to roll in. Blackrock and Fidelity are suing Citi and JPM and PIMCO has jumped on the bandwagon in BR's suit against BofA.

I'm still holding puts on JPM, which are not profitable at the moment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 25, 2012, 06:22:10 PM
Yeah, that LIBOR shit is going to be really nasty.  You can't really have banks compensate the victims, because banks can't can't claw back the gains from the counter-parties who profited from the fixing.  However, you can't just do nothing either.  I'll be damned if I knew how to square that circle.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 26, 2012, 06:12:35 AM
heh, european stocks rally on Draghi pledging to save Euro no matter what.

that's it. Now that was some NEWSFLASH. What a bunch of nerve-wrecks
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 26, 2012, 11:51:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 26, 2012, 06:12:35 AM
heh, european stocks rally on Draghi pledging to save Euro no matter what.

that's it. Now that was some NEWSFLASH. What a bunch of nerve-wrecks

The next statement from the German government will bring us back to Earth.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 26, 2012, 02:03:22 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 26, 2012, 11:51:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on July 26, 2012, 06:12:35 AM
heh, european stocks rally on Draghi pledging to save Euro no matter what.

that's it. Now that was some NEWSFLASH. What a bunch of nerve-wrecks

The next statement from the German government will bring us back to Earth.  :P

Damn this shit. I had such a good month. Not in absolute money terms, but how I consistently made good calls (that often being staying the fuck out of things), and with baby steps I was recovering my lost funds. Then I go mental over today and lose back like more than half of last month's gain. Because I just couldn't STOMACH seeing that we rally the fuck up just because a mostly powerless figure tells us that "I am going to do my job".

P.S. yeah I know, market was oversold and shit. But I just couldn't take it. I had to fight it on principle. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 26, 2012, 02:11:40 PM
You gotta calm down.  :P

Most of the time, the best thing to do really is nothing. Getting scared makes people do stupid stuff. You will lose on trades all the time. ALL the time. Just don't let it bother you.

Here's Larry Williams:

Quote
It is an Inconvenient Truth...

A word about blowouts and babbling brooks; if you're going to trade commodities, or stocks, you better look this one directly in the eyes.



What I'm about to tell you is the one thing brokers and advisors don't impress upon you and always gloss over. Thus when it happens, you do not have the correct response.

Here's the inconvenient truth...

Anyone who has ever traded has had losses. This means you will have losses. This means you will have lots of losses. Are you really prepared to deal with that?

I don't think so. There's nobody in this game that really tells you about it or explains and places any emphasis at all on the fact that you're going to get burned in this business.

That's why today I want to discuss this with you.

Again, make note, there are no two ways about it; you will lose money trading. That doesn't mean you have to lose all your money trading, but it means you will go through losing time periods, have losing streaks, and at times will have an undue amount of pressure working upon your psyche.

So how do you deal with that?

I really don't know, because I really don't know you. But I can tell you a few things about myself that we probably share in common. These are things I've also discussed with other traders, and we have developed a commonality of how we approach losing.

To begin with, just the idea that you understand you're going to lose will make you a much better trader. I say that because if you know you have a high probability of losing on your next trade you're going to protect yourself. You'll have protective stop losses, and you'll never bet big thanks to your fear of losing. In other words, fear is a great thing in this business.

Losing trades and losing streaks can drain one emotionally as well as financially. Because of that you need a mindset to approach losses. I want to make certain losing streaks don't turn into blowouts for you. I have techniques that can overcome this.

Here's one of mine.

I don't know of any business that doesn't have losses. The grocery store has to throw out milk they couldn't sell that went stale. The local haberdasher cannot sell all of the men's suits or shoes, so he marks them down until they are below his cost. He understands he is going to take a loss, but he has no other choice. That's part of business.

Small business or large business, it's all the same. At some point they have losses. Look at Starbucks and the huge cut back they had to make because of losing stores.

This can be so draining... not only are you losing money, but you are not succeeding. You're failing at what you want to do and that can be very hard. Failure causes dejection, which causes more failure, leading to a circular downfall.

One thing I learned years ago, and it has meant a great deal to me, is this little slogan;

"I will have my losses, but they will not have me."

I have seen very successful people come into this business of trading, have a string of losses and then get confused and lose it all. They think they are, essentially, their losses. They see no way out. Of course, with that mindset, there really isn't.

This means you cannot dwell on your losses. They are of your past; they are water under the bridge. You can study your past trades to see what you did wrong. But you cannot let the losses pull you down like some anchor holding a boat from drifting free.

That gets us right back to understanding that we will have losses. Once you understand that, thoroughly internalized, then you realize it's just part of the game. You are prepared for the future. So when that happens you can let losses go under your emotional bridge, just like so much water coming down a babbling brook.

The only true statement I have ever learned from the government is that past performance is no guarantee or assurance of future performance. That is an absolute. It is like the law of gravity.

Which means your past failures are no indication in any way whatsoever of your future successes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 26, 2012, 02:17:43 PM
good one, thanks :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on July 26, 2012, 02:28:45 PM
To which I would add keep your principles out of your share purchases  :P

My guess yesterday was that some EU panjandrum would pop up today and kick the can further down the road. I don't think that is any way to run a continent, but the guess was correct from the point of view of making some money............probably luck.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 26, 2012, 04:23:34 PM
SLB is up 3 bucks today.  Wonder if they got a bump from an Economist article about oilfield services companies.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 01, 2012, 01:05:51 PM
A few minutes to Bernanke and the market is spiking downward. It's like they're warning him that if they don't like what he's going to say, they'll throw a tantrum. Mr. Market is a crack whore waiting for his next easing fix.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on August 01, 2012, 01:48:45 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 01, 2012, 01:05:51 PM
A few minutes to Bernanke and the market is spiking downward. It's like they're warning him that if they don't like what he's going to say, they'll throw a tantrum. Mr. Market is a crack whore waiting for his next easing fix.

Ahh that might explain why I'm making a mint on the euro plunging then....
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on August 03, 2012, 03:21:06 PM
Quote
Interview With A High-Frequency Trader

While the attached interview between the Casey Report and HFT expert Garrett from CalibratedConfidence will not reveal much unknown new to those who have been following the high frequency trading topic ever since ZH made it a mainstream issue in April of 2009, it will serve as a great foundation for all those new to the topic who are looking for an honest, unbiased introduction to what is otherwise a nebulous and complicated matter. We urge everyone who is even remotely interested in market structure, broken markets and the future of trading to read the observations presented below.

From Casey Report:

Interview with a High-Frequency Trading Expert

High-frequency trading (HFT) – wherein computers transact thousands of times per second with incomprehensible speed – now accounts for over 60% of all trades on American exchanges. How does this sweeping market change affect retail investors?
There are two very different answers to that question. Supporters claim that high-frequency traders (HFTs) are a net-positive market force because they provide liquidity and tighten bid-ask spreads. They say that high-frequency trading is rarely if ever used for nefarious purposes, and regulators make sure of it.

On the other side, detractors claim that HFTs regularly manipulate unaware investors and otherwise destabilize markets. They say that HFTs are a net-negative force on the market and should be reined in.

The answer surely lies somewhere in between. But which is closer to the truth? To find out, we talked to Garrett, an expert on market systems and high-frequency trading. Having experienced first-hand the problems HFTs can cause, he fits firmly in the "detractor" camp, for reasons you'll read below. Garrett gave us excellent insight into how HFTs profit, along with tips on how to make sure they don't profit at your expense.



ttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/interview-high-frequency-trader (http://languish.org/forums/%20http://www.zerohedge.com/news/interview-high-frequency-trader)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 03, 2012, 03:29:11 PM
The answer is somewhere between net negative and net positive?  :hmm: Way to go out on a limb.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 03, 2012, 04:25:26 PM
PBI up almost a buck today. :yeah:

How are your JPM puts doing MIM?  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 03, 2012, 05:42:29 PM
Not well.  :Embarrass:

Luckily there are only ten of them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 06, 2012, 02:33:59 PM
The Sprott silver asset value premiums are down to their early 2011 lows--around 3%. It was a little over 20% that April when the spike happened.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 06, 2012, 03:40:40 PM
Chesapeake boosts guidance and is rocketing after hours. Awesome. I have a big position in the IRA.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 10, 2012, 11:33:48 AM
I'm going short TLT with a decent-size. Not puts, just shorting it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 10, 2012, 11:44:56 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 10, 2012, 11:33:48 AM
I'm going short TLT with a decent-size. Not puts, just shorting it.

Copycat. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 13, 2012, 02:01:31 PM
A couple of prints just above 1409 SPY about an hour apart seem to be telegraphing the direction today. I took on some SPY calls 20 minutes ago and those are already up pretty well. Good daytrade opportunity. It'll probably pay for my dinner tonight anyway.

TLT short is red but getting pinker as the day goes on. I'm staying with that for a while. Very confident in that trade.


Edit: SPY calls stop-triggered for only a $20 gain. Dinner is right.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 13, 2012, 02:23:49 PM
Enjoy your shared Applebee's dessert.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 13, 2012, 02:24:49 PM
3rd print of the day just happened at the exact same spot just over 1409. Somebody really wants the market to go there.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 14, 2012, 05:30:57 PM
I'm thinking of making a play on the recent tech companies like Zynga and Groupon who might be gobbled up if their stock weakness continues. I ain't gonna invest much.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 15, 2012, 01:55:43 PM
I actually did get some September puts on TLT the day I posted my short, and they're up 48%. The short itself is up fifty bucks. Those puts way more than make up for my loss on the JPM puts. I still wish death or scandal on Jamie Dimon however. Hopefully before Friday.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 16, 2012, 11:43:38 AM
Sold 10 TLT puts. No reason to be too greedy. Gain was about 170% Will buy more if it drops below this line of support at around 120. Pretty likely it will take a swan dive then.


JPM puts will likely expire worthless tomorrow. Oh well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 16, 2012, 11:46:13 AM
You can send my cut of the TLT winnings to a charity of your choice.  :P

I'm thinking of cashing out soon too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 16, 2012, 11:53:12 AM
Swan dive might be coming early. Just dropped fifty cents in the last few minutes.  :lol:

I still have the short, but no puts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 16, 2012, 02:44:12 PM
BOA just called my bond, so I'm thinking about rolling it over to a REIT.

MIM, can you expand a bit on the tax issues, or do you know a site that would spell them out for me?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on August 16, 2012, 02:50:55 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 14, 2012, 05:30:57 PM
I'm thinking of making a play on the recent tech companies like Zynga and Groupon who might be gobbled up if their stock weakness continues. I ain't gonna invest much.

If you want to make a quick speculative play then sure, but the fundamentals of both companies are pretty crappy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 16, 2012, 02:56:32 PM
REIT (and MLP) income is not dividends, and it's taxed at your normal tax rate instead of the normal 15%. You are a "partner" and they send you an income statement every year. Your income from the company comes as partnership/ownership proceeds.

So basically, you pay higher taxes because the REIT pays none. So I only own them in the IRA.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 16, 2012, 02:59:24 PM
Danke.

Maybe I'll plop it in to PBI. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 16, 2012, 05:42:44 PM
Order in for 200 shares of AGNC at 33.50.  :ph34r:

I was hoping I could get in to American Residential Properties.  They're a Phoenix outfit that buys distressed properties and rents them; mentioned in an Economist article on the trend toward rentals.  Alas, they're not publicly traded.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on August 16, 2012, 06:38:55 PM
Quote from: Barrister on August 16, 2012, 02:50:55 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on August 14, 2012, 05:30:57 PM
I'm thinking of making a play on the recent tech companies like Zynga and Groupon who might be gobbled up if their stock weakness continues. I ain't gonna invest much.

If you want to make a quick speculative play then sure, but the fundamentals of both companies are pretty crappy.

I wouldn't be investing on the strength of their boards.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 07, 2012, 02:44:29 PM
Thinking of going short bonds again...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 07, 2012, 07:55:31 PM
I was looking at the Kinder-Morgan investor page (decided not to buy because the org structure was too weird).  Learned that the CEO is paid $1 a year.  Course he owns 24% of the company...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 11, 2012, 11:06:08 AM
PBI up a buck off its trough.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 11, 2012, 07:23:47 PM
I'm making a list of things to short going into the fiscal cliff. Widely-held stocks that have gone up a lot, so people have lots of unrealized gains they'd rather take at the lower tax rate this year.

1: Apple

2: Apple

3: Apple

4: Apple

Research ongoing...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on September 11, 2012, 08:35:26 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 11, 2012, 07:23:47 PM
I'm making a list of things to short going into the fiscal cliff. Widely-held stocks that have gone up a lot, so people have lots of unrealized gains they'd rather take at the lower tax rate this year.

1: Apple

2: Apple

3: Apple

4: Apple

Research ongoing...

Apple is going pear shaped ?

Or are you just bananas ?

Personally my next pc is a:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.raspberrypi.org%2F&hash=9587977654b462c2a749308f4f8d0617ac07c1a3)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 11, 2012, 10:57:38 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 11, 2012, 08:35:26 PM
Apple is going pear shaped ?

Clearly not what I said. I think there will be a wave of trades selling it ahead of the tax increases before the year ends. There is nothing fundamental about Apple that makes it look rotten. Yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 13, 2012, 03:21:49 PM
AT&T hit a P/E of 50 today. I'm selling.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 13, 2012, 03:38:13 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-17/treasury-accelerates-withdrawal-of-fannie-freddie-backing.html

Fannie and Freddie winding down possibly. Geithner might do it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on September 13, 2012, 05:17:09 PM
With the Fed keeping interest rates near zero until at least mid-2015, I can defer my glorious return to the United States a few years before buying a home. :showoff:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on September 13, 2012, 05:52:15 PM
It looks like silver is easing upwards again, and I am thinking of making another stab at a run with PSLV...mistake?  :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 13, 2012, 07:38:11 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 13, 2012, 05:52:15 PM
It looks like silver is easing upwards again, and I am thinking of making another stab at a run with PSLV...mistake?  :unsure:

It sure worked with the last QE. I was thinking the same thing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on November 09, 2012, 09:10:11 AM
I'm going to go curl up in a ball right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 09, 2012, 12:19:11 PM
Quote from: mongers on September 11, 2012, 08:35:26 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on September 11, 2012, 07:23:47 PM
I'm making a list of things to short going into the fiscal cliff. Widely-held stocks that have gone up a lot, so people have lots of unrealized gains they'd rather take at the lower tax rate this year.

1: Apple

2: Apple

3: Apple

4: Apple

Research ongoing...

Apple is going pear shaped ?

Or are you just bananas ?

Personally my next pc is a:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.raspberrypi.org%2F&hash=9587977654b462c2a749308f4f8d0617ac07c1a3)


Still think I'm bananas, m?  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on November 09, 2012, 12:28:37 PM
:worship:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 13, 2012, 02:10:50 AM
MSFT will take a hit in the morning. The head of the Windows 8 division resigned tonight.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on November 13, 2012, 02:20:11 AM
This constant fluctuation in share prices since the smash seems to be a licence to make money. My method is simple, I buy as the FTSE nears 5000 and sell as it gets near 6000.......so far so good and in 3 years I have nearly doubled my money  :hmm:

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2013, 06:14:06 PM
AAPL still freefalling. Closed at $450 today.

Time to theorize. What will be the catalyst that stops this?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 25, 2013, 04:06:29 PM
I knew I should have picked up some NFLX when they were on the ropes.  :weep:

But man, that P/E ratio....
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2013, 04:08:30 PM
I'm thinking about putting my '13 IRA contribution into Boeing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 25, 2013, 04:10:59 PM
I am not sure they've taken enough of a post-787-grounding hit for me to not be wary yet. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 25, 2013, 04:13:26 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 25, 2013, 04:10:59 PM
I am not sure they've taken enough of a post-787-grounding hit for me to not be wary yet.

He's announcing his intention to conspire with terrorists to bomb aircraft.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2013, 04:35:13 PM
Maybe not.  Just took at a peak at Boeing's share performance and they seem to be trading around their 52 week high.  :blink:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 30, 2013, 12:57:43 PM
It's RIMM day. Big expo unveiling the Blackberry 10. Also, they are renaming the company to Blackberry and it's getting a new ticker symbol. And they hired Alicia Keys as "Global Creative Director", whatever that is. PR shill I guess. The phones seem cool. It'll be interesting to see if they pick things up like the Lumia did for Nokia.

RIMM stock price spiked four percent and then promptly sold off four and a half. Meh.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 30, 2013, 02:48:43 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 30, 2013, 12:57:43 PM
It's RIMM day. Big expo unveiling the Blackberry 10. Also, they are renaming the company to Blackberry and it's getting a new ticker symbol. And they hired Alicia Keys as "Global Creative Director", whatever that is. PR shill I guess. The phones seem cool. It'll be interesting to see if they pick things up like the Lumia did for Nokia.

RIMM stock price spiked four percent and then promptly sold off four and a half. Meh.


Quote
Stephen Fry ‏@stephenfry

People think me an incurable Apple fanboi, but I have to say I'm tremendously impressed by the BlackBerry Z10.

Holy crap hell just froze over.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2013, 09:47:41 AM
Etrade is telling me I can put 6500 in my IRA for 2013.

Anyone else heard of this?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 05, 2013, 09:55:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2013, 09:47:41 AM
Etrade is telling me I can put 6500 in my IRA for 2013.

Anyone else heard of this?

That is the limit if you are over 50, otherwise 1k less.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2013, 10:00:27 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 05, 2013, 09:55:56 AM
That is the limit if you are over 50, otherwise 1k less.

Ah, thanks. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 13, 2013, 01:41:12 PM
Just put a bet down on McGraw-Hill, parent company of Standard & Poors.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 13, 2013, 01:44:00 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2013, 10:00:27 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 05, 2013, 09:55:56 AM
That is the limit if you are over 50, otherwise 1k less.

Ah, thanks. :)
:unsure: I didn't realize you were that old.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2013, 01:46:14 PM
Quote
Just put a bet down on McGraw-Hill


Which direction? 


I've been sitting quietly for nearly a year. Time to trade a little more actively, so I picked up a few SPY puts. H+S pattern over the last couple days. So far, it isn't paying off, but it's only been a half hour.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 13, 2013, 01:52:37 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2013, 01:46:14 PM
Which direction? 

Long.  Gubmint's case is bogus.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2013, 02:28:21 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2013, 01:46:14 PM
So far, it isn't paying off, but it's only been a half hour.  :P


Nevermind. Working now.


Edit: Out with ten contracts. $124 gain.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 13, 2013, 03:56:48 PM
I still like REITs at the moment, mainly cause I like stability and I like dividends right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 13, 2013, 06:04:52 PM
I've got 150 ounces of silver (don't ask). I will be able to buy off a barbarian tribe to leave my lands alone.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 13, 2013, 07:01:52 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 13, 2013, 06:04:52 PM
I've got 150 ounces of silver (don't ask). I will be able to buy off a barbarian tribe to leave my lands alone.

If they charge the same as Judas, you can do it five times.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 15, 2013, 02:59:14 PM
This little mini-dump looks like it exhausted itself. I'm trying a 10 call trade hoping it bumps a bit into the close. Could fail but what the hell. Stops are tight at 151.60 (low of the day).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 15, 2013, 03:26:55 PM
Somebody really wants to get the SPY to 152.30 today. Look at these bars. The horizontal line is where I bought my calls.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 15, 2013, 03:41:22 PM
And I'm out for a hundred dollar gain. Done for the day.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 15, 2013, 03:43:57 PM
Pretty soon you'll have enough to buy hotels for Pennsylvania Avenue.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 15, 2013, 03:49:01 PM
Heh. Yeah I took most of the money out of my trading account to buy real estate, so you're not wrong.  :lol:

I'm playing with peanuts here, but hey--snipping a hundred bucks every other day or so is respectable enough. It's more than minimum wage.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 15, 2013, 03:53:54 PM
Hay mang, no shame in day trading for a hundred clams a day.  Party on Garth.:punk:

The real shame lies in defrauding your employers of your time.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 15, 2013, 08:07:08 PM
I bought some P stock a few months back, and got 30% growth on it so far...beginning to think it's getting close to time to cash in...but I think it might ride to 14-15/share yet. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 15, 2013, 08:25:11 PM
I was tempted to buy Carnival (CCL).

Might still do it if it drops to around 35.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 15, 2013, 08:40:49 PM
Need to sabotage a few more ships.

Send katmai on a cruise.  :menace:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 18, 2013, 10:57:12 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 13, 2013, 06:04:52 PM
I've got 150 ounces of silver (don't ask). I will be able to buy off a barbarian tribe to leave my lands alone.

And with silver below 30 bucks, I'm losing money.

Note to self: never let people repay debts with silver.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 18, 2013, 04:21:05 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 18, 2013, 10:57:12 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 13, 2013, 06:04:52 PM
I've got 150 ounces of silver (don't ask). I will be able to buy off a barbarian tribe to leave my lands alone.

And with silver below 30 bucks, I'm losing money.

Note to self: never let people repay debts with silver.

The fear of QE ending is more powerful than the QE itself. The market is nuts.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 18, 2013, 04:22:38 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 18, 2013, 04:21:05 PM
The fear of QE ending is more powerful than the QE itself. The market is nuts.  :P

?? An end to QE should drive down the price of precious metals.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 18, 2013, 04:25:55 PM
Right. And that's what they are trying to prepare for. Bond yields are going up too. Mr Market is a skitz who tries to predict everything.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 18, 2013, 04:31:16 PM
Right.  Never mind. :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 21, 2013, 01:38:12 PM
BOE is maybe the most easing-friendly central bank right now. They are trying to out-Japan the BoJ. There's a lot of talk about shorting the Pound right now. People are comparing it to the setup Soros used to make his 100billion dollar short on sterling and forced the BOE to pull the pound off the Euro exchange rate mechanism.

I don't trade forex, but It'll be nice to take another trip to the UK. The last time I was there was pre-crash and the exchange rate was 2/1. Who wants to pay $30 for fish and chips?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 13, 2013, 06:41:38 PM
Cal, I've got some money sitting on its ass right now.

What REITs do you own/like?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 13, 2013, 07:09:24 PM
I own VNQ and VTR right now.  VNQ is an ETF index tho.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 13, 2013, 07:18:29 PM
I recently read an article about how people with stock in various Japanese companies get all sorts of free gifts from the companies. Sadly it requires levels of stock ownership that would make the value of these gifts worthless ($7000 worth....) but intruiging nonetheless.
I really wish this stocks stuff was easier to do on a low level. Doesn't seem to be at all worthwhile with transaction fees, handling fees and all sorts of fee fees.

QuoteAnd with silver below 30 bucks, I'm losing money.

Note to self: never let people repay debts with silver.
Unless you actually get to physically own the silver. That would be cool.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 13, 2013, 07:19:41 PM
I own 10 shares of Sony.  Where's my goddamn Jap bling  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 13, 2013, 07:20:16 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 13, 2013, 07:19:41 PM
I own 10 shares of Sony.  Where's my goddamn Jap bling  :mad:
100 seems the usual cutoff.
And the company not being in the process of going under helps too.

It was an updated version I read but it is pretty interesting:
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/20/your-money/20iht-mperks_ed3_.html
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 13, 2013, 07:21:32 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 13, 2013, 07:09:24 PM
I own VNQ and VTR right now.  VNQ is an ETF index tho.

:hmm: I was hoping for a little richer dividend yield.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 13, 2013, 07:32:27 PM
REITs pay a decent, steady dividend (which they are required by law to do, in fact) and they are typically a good long term investment because their business is owning a large pool of tangible assets so it's not like they're going to vanish overnight like a pharma or a tech company could.  If you want a huge div yield then you're going to need to look into something way more risky.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 13, 2013, 07:46:56 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 13, 2013, 07:18:29 PM
I recently read an article about how people with stock in various Japanese companies get all sorts of free gifts from the companies. Sadly it requires levels of stock ownership that would make the value of these gifts worthless ($7000 worth....) but intruiging nonetheless.
I really wish this stocks stuff was easier to do on a low level. Doesn't seem to be at all worthwhile with transaction fees, handling fees and all sorts of fee fees.

QuoteAnd with silver below 30 bucks, I'm losing money.

Note to self: never let people repay debts with silver.
Unless you actually get to physically own the silver. That would be cool.

It is in the safe. It isn't that exciting. 150 tiny little rectangles.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 13, 2013, 07:55:23 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 13, 2013, 07:32:27 PM
REITs pay a decent, steady dividend (which they are required by law to do, in fact) and they are typically a good long term investment because their business is owning a large pool of tangible assets so it's not like they're going to vanish overnight like a pharma or a tech company could.  If you want a huge div yield then you're going to need to look into something way more risky.

It appears there are a variety of REIT types.  The one Mimsy turned me on to, AGNC, doesn't own any property, it buys government-issued MBS.  That type pays a mongo dividend.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 13, 2013, 08:25:28 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 13, 2013, 07:46:56 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 13, 2013, 07:18:29 PM
I recently read an article about how people with stock in various Japanese companies get all sorts of free gifts from the companies. Sadly it requires levels of stock ownership that would make the value of these gifts worthless ($7000 worth....) but intruiging nonetheless.
I really wish this stocks stuff was easier to do on a low level. Doesn't seem to be at all worthwhile with transaction fees, handling fees and all sorts of fee fees.

QuoteAnd with silver below 30 bucks, I'm losing money.

Note to self: never let people repay debts with silver.
Unless you actually get to physically own the silver. That would be cool.

It is in the safe. It isn't that exciting. 150 tiny little rectangles.

It's enough to buy five Jesuses.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 13, 2013, 08:30:32 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 13, 2013, 08:25:28 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 13, 2013, 07:46:56 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 13, 2013, 07:18:29 PM
I recently read an article about how people with stock in various Japanese companies get all sorts of free gifts from the companies. Sadly it requires levels of stock ownership that would make the value of these gifts worthless ($7000 worth....) but intruiging nonetheless.
I really wish this stocks stuff was easier to do on a low level. Doesn't seem to be at all worthwhile with transaction fees, handling fees and all sorts of fee fees.

QuoteAnd with silver below 30 bucks, I'm losing money.

Note to self: never let people repay debts with silver.
Unless you actually get to physically own the silver. That would be cool.

It is in the safe. It isn't that exciting. 150 tiny little rectangles.

It's enough to buy five Jesuses.

Jesus saves.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on April 01, 2013, 01:05:02 AM
What do you guys think of Tesla motors?  (TSLA)

Been watching them for a few weeks and hoping I didn't just miss a window, looks like they're about to have a nice spike in the morning.  Really hoping for another offering though...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2013, 01:53:07 AM
Tesla, no?

I took a look at their site, and it says right there they have a corporate philosophy of never paying any dividends.  That turned me right off.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on April 01, 2013, 02:44:26 AM
Yeah I missed a in there, thanks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 01, 2013, 03:16:55 AM
Quote from: Alcibiades on April 01, 2013, 01:05:02 AM
What do you guys think of Tesla motors?  (TSLA)

Been watching them for a few weeks and hoping I didn't just miss a window, looks like they're about to have a nice spike in the morning.  Really hoping for another offering though...
IMO, from an car guy's perspective, they're a dead end.  Their current cars are crap, and if there is a breakthrough in battery technology, the big boys will put it in place first, and much more comprehensively.  Then again, their crappiness may already be fully priced in, so buying their stock is like taking a gamble that they'll turn out to be less crappy than expected for a while.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on April 01, 2013, 03:34:14 AM
What makes you say they are crappy?  And already they are the leaders in battery technology and actually supply the big boys with their current battery technology.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 01, 2013, 08:21:04 AM
Should've bought it.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 01, 2013, 08:25:04 AM
The reason I'm skeptical of Tesla is that today's battery technology isn't going to cut it, there isn't enough development in it to ever make it practical for a car.  There has to be a revolution in battery technology, and it'll come eventually.  However, given how many big boys in many different industries are interested in it, the odds are that they'll get it and not an upstart like Tesla.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: frunk on April 01, 2013, 03:07:15 PM
The big boys tend to follow paths of research that haven't been explored because they are expensive to develop, not because they are innovative.  The oddball results are found by the little boys.  I wouldn't bet on any single developer to have the solution, but it probably won't be found by any of the big players and it's equally possible that it will be several small incremental enhancements from many different sources.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on April 02, 2013, 08:30:18 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 01, 2013, 08:21:04 AM
Should've bought it.  :(

Should have :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 03, 2013, 04:17:33 AM
Investing in penny stocks is a huge gamble. Find ten biotech companies and put the same amount into each. One them will spike at some point and the rest will make you lose your shit. Try to guess the good ones, maybe.

If we do cure cancer, I've got a short list of parasites to get puts on.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on April 03, 2013, 04:55:31 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 03, 2013, 04:17:33 AM
Investing in penny stocks is a huge gamble. Find ten biotech companies and put the same amount into each. One them will spike at some point and the rest will make you lose your shit. Try to guess the good ones, maybe.

If we do cure cancer, I've got a short list of parasites to get puts on.  :)
Later. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 04, 2013, 01:54:59 PM
I increased my cash position in the IRA to about 30%. Closed positions in Chesapeake, Chevron and Shlumberger. Too much oil in the mix. Kept Kinder-Morgan. I'll probably pick up some of that AGNC with the settled cash tomorrow.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 10, 2013, 01:21:13 PM
Bitcoin dropping like a rock. lol

High today: $260
Current price: $169
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 15, 2013, 07:52:46 AM
Gold is taking a beating.

*looks at the silver price....cries*
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 15, 2013, 11:13:21 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 15, 2013, 07:52:46 AM
Gold is taking a beating.

*looks at the silver price....cries*

The multiple between them is still historically way off. The magic number used to be 16. (Gold's price is 16 times silver's.) right now it's ~60 times. In order to get back there, gold would have to crash to $360 or silver would have to go up to $85. I'm guessing something between that. We may never see the 16 multiple again, who knows.


I'm interested to see where gold finds an equilibrium. We may finally see a buying opportunity.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 15, 2013, 11:57:11 AM
Just put some money into iShares Korean index ETF.

Anyone have any experience with country-specific ETFs?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zanza on April 15, 2013, 02:32:50 PM
Quote from: frunk on April 01, 2013, 03:07:15 PM
The big boys tend to follow paths of research that haven't been explored because they are expensive to develop, not because they are innovative.  The oddball results are found by the little boys.  I wouldn't bet on any single developer to have the solution, but it probably won't be found by any of the big players and it's equally possible that it will be several small incremental enhancements from many different sources.
It will be interesting how well Tesla's business model scales when they ramp up production.

My impression from the R&D departments of the big players in the automotive industry is that they are definitely innovative and will try new technologies. The problem is that they will usually not go for solutions that work in high price small unit series, but rather must find something that can be built cheaply in big numbers. I am not sure that battery technology is already there.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 15, 2013, 02:34:53 PM
Did a rough calculation, looks like I've lost about a thousand in the value of my silver.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 15, 2013, 02:44:27 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 15, 2013, 02:34:53 PM
Did a rough calculation, looks like I've lost about a thousand in the value of my silver.

Don't you physically have it? What is it, those little chips?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 15, 2013, 02:45:44 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 15, 2013, 02:44:27 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 15, 2013, 02:34:53 PM
Did a rough calculation, looks like I've lost about a thousand in the value of my silver.

Don't you physically have it? What is it, those little chips?

Little tiny rectangles.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 15, 2013, 05:23:49 PM
There are reports of PM dealer premiums going up a lot, and the prices of physical metals not crashing like the paper metals etfs. I guess a gold in the hand is worth more than two in the GLD.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 15, 2013, 05:54:36 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-12/paulson-loses-more-than-300-million-as-gold-falls.html

I wonder what that's up to now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 17, 2013, 01:30:50 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 15, 2013, 11:57:11 AM
Just put some money into iShares Korean index ETF.

Anyone have any experience with country-specific ETFs?
At one point when I was ETF shopping I looked at a few national index funds like that one but none were at the right strike price for me at the time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 17, 2013, 01:34:32 PM
I have around $3K sitting idle in my Ameritrade money market ATM.  Suggestions?  Nothing is jumping out and me, screaming "buy me!" right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 17, 2013, 01:55:12 PM
Go short cupcakes. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324345804578425291917117814.html)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 17, 2013, 02:03:08 PM
Honestly, I'm not liking the look of real estate anymore at the moment. Foreclosures about to flush through my local market. Or much else for that matter. Maybe I'm just in a bad mood.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 17, 2013, 02:05:16 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 17, 2013, 01:55:12 PM
Go short cupcakes. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324345804578425291917117814.html)
HA.  I knew this day was coming.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2013, 02:09:50 PM
Quote from: Caliga on April 17, 2013, 01:34:32 PM
I have around $3K sitting idle in my Ameritrade money market ATM.  Suggestions?  Nothing is jumping out and me, screaming "buy me!" right now.

My next purchase is going to be a Mexico ETF.  I think they're poised to go big.  The pretty boy socialist presidente is turning out to be union killer and monopoly destroyer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on April 17, 2013, 04:04:54 PM
I am considering buying more Apple at $400 or below.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 17, 2013, 04:09:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2013, 02:09:50 PM
Quote from: Caliga on April 17, 2013, 01:34:32 PM
I have around $3K sitting idle in my Ameritrade money market ATM.  Suggestions?  Nothing is jumping out and me, screaming "buy me!" right now.

My next purchase is going to be a Mexico ETF.  I think they're poised to go big.  The pretty boy socialist presidente is turning out to be union killer and monopoly destroyer.

I think Mexico's biggest problems are that it isn't safe and has an unstable rule of law, not its unions or monopolies.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on April 17, 2013, 04:18:38 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 17, 2013, 04:09:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2013, 02:09:50 PM
Quote from: Caliga on April 17, 2013, 01:34:32 PM
I have around $3K sitting idle in my Ameritrade money market ATM.  Suggestions?  Nothing is jumping out and me, screaming "buy me!" right now.

My next purchase is going to be a Mexico ETF.  I think they're poised to go big.  The pretty boy socialist presidente is turning out to be union killer and monopoly destroyer.

I think Mexico's biggest problems are that it isn't safe and has an unstable rule of law, not its unions or monopolies.
Exaggeration on violence and only in certain areas. Compare to United States.

Meanwhile, investors are loving the President's economic moves:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FMI-BV317_MKTLED_G_20130411180604.jpg&hash=9a445d009eddc8d0f215a8b54deba3305e62d404)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324010704578416870746707576.html (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324010704578416870746707576.html)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on April 18, 2013, 01:51:57 PM
Really, because I know a few years back during the surge Mexico had more murders than Iraq, to put it into perspective. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2013, 01:57:49 PM
I think it's time to take a speculative short position on the S&P as a whole.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2013, 02:10:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2013, 01:57:49 PM
I think it's time to take a speculative short position on the S&P as a whole.

If you think, like I do, that easy money is driving stock prices, you're in effect betting against the Fed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2013, 02:51:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2013, 02:10:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2013, 01:57:49 PM
I think it's time to take a speculative short position on the S&P as a whole.

If you think, like I do, that easy money is driving stock prices, you're in effect betting against the Fed.


Yes. Betting against the fed is a bad idea. Like I said, I think the run-up in stocks has been mostly due to there being no good alternatives.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on April 18, 2013, 03:52:47 PM
Bought some Apple today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 18, 2013, 04:08:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2013, 02:10:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 18, 2013, 01:57:49 PM
I think it's time to take a speculative short position on the S&P as a whole.

If you think, like I do, that easy money is driving stock prices, you're in effect betting against the Fed.
Are you saying that betting against the Fed is suicidal?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on May 10, 2013, 01:28:07 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 01, 2013, 08:25:04 AM
The reason I'm skeptical of Tesla is that today's battery technology isn't going to cut it, there isn't enough development in it to ever make it practical for a car.  There has to be a revolution in battery technology, and it'll come eventually.  However, given how many big boys in many different industries are interested in it, the odds are that they'll get it and not an upstart like Tesla.



That whole Tesla thing?  Yeah doubled in the past month, should have bought it.  :(


First quarter of profitability and consumer report named it their top scoring car, not electric cars, of all cars.   :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 10, 2013, 05:47:21 AM
A company's stock price shooting way up while they're losing money left-and-right makes me wonder about the stock market sometimes :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: ulmont on May 10, 2013, 08:18:24 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 10, 2013, 05:47:21 AM
A company's stock price shooting way up while they're losing money left-and-right makes me wonder about the stock market sometimes :hmm:

If you're talking about Tesla, they're profitable now, which is sort of the point.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 10, 2013, 08:22:28 AM
Quote from: Alcibiades on May 10, 2013, 01:28:07 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 01, 2013, 08:25:04 AM
The reason I'm skeptical of Tesla is that today's battery technology isn't going to cut it, there isn't enough development in it to ever make it practical for a car.  There has to be a revolution in battery technology, and it'll come eventually.  However, given how many big boys in many different industries are interested in it, the odds are that they'll get it and not an upstart like Tesla.



That whole Tesla thing?  Yeah doubled in the past month, should have bought it.  :(


First quarter of profitability and consumer report named it their top scoring car, not electric cars, of all cars.   :sleep:
Meh, Consumer Reports to cars is what Raz is to sanity.  But, yes, my long-term skepticism is in stark contrast to other people short-term optimism.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 13, 2013, 09:56:43 AM
And here I thought P was peaking at 15/share.  I have a bad habit of selling too early.  :glare:

My favorite recent penny-stock has been NVLX.  I double-downed (well, more like 1000-downed) on them last week.  Here's hoping Tim hasn't tainted biotech.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 13, 2013, 06:57:26 PM
Holdings in gold ETFs are down 20% this year. On the other hand, short positions in gold are at a new all-time high, finally cracking over the previous peak in 1999. And then you have shortages of physical gold everywhere. I can't decide if the shorts are right and the paper gold market will simply break or if there will be a rebound that pulls off a huge short squeeze. One way or another that rubber band is stretched.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 22, 2013, 01:25:04 PM
I sniped two hundred bucks with puts going into the fed minutes. If I had done that trade with the full weight of my account behind it I would have made about seven grand in 15 minutes. I can't help it, I just can't bring myself to risk more than 10 or 20 options at a time. Thinking about what could have been is poison though. Makes you take dumb risks next time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on May 29, 2013, 07:06:35 PM
Anybody actually think the Fed will ease up on bond purchases soon? The market seems to think so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 18, 2013, 03:41:16 AM
Before I go to bed, I wanted to mention that Wednesday is gonna be one of the most important trading days of the year because everything depends on Bernanke. My opinion is that the Fed has had enough of the doubt and rumors they made last month because they aren't getting the economic numbers they need (unemployment 6.5%) and they will stick to the script of QE until we say otherwise. Probably means a bump but I'm taking a straddle just because I think that bump will happen, but if it doesn't the opposite will.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 24, 2013, 04:38:26 PM
Damn, market has been going a little nuts last few weeks.  Time to cash out some positions I think.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 24, 2013, 04:59:14 PM
Dumped my Haliburton, dumped my mom's BAC, would dump my McGraw-Hill except I really want to wait for the federal lawsuit against them to curl up and die first.

Just put a bet down on a Canadian biotech penny stock that my Canadian bud, who I had not talked to in 10 years, was flogging like a mad man.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on July 24, 2013, 07:37:49 PM
Good growth from Facebook this past quarter.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FMK-CF010_FACEBO_NS_20130724181203.jpg&hash=8b34d45c47c79f2b51c678f808aaf0cec3f4bc56)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 25, 2013, 07:01:29 PM
Just rolled over my Haliburton money and my mom's BAC money into an iShares Mexican index fund.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 25, 2013, 09:17:56 PM
You think the new Zetas CEO is going to do better than the old one?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 25, 2013, 09:35:44 PM
I think the new pretty boy president is serious about tackling vested interests and opening up markets.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 01, 2013, 08:00:12 PM
MFHI up 42% since I bought in, haven't gotten the bullshit legal case bounce yet. :punk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 19, 2013, 03:58:48 PM
After the market close today...

MAH REITS
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 19, 2013, 04:00:44 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 19, 2013, 03:58:48 PM
After the market close today...

MAH REITS
:(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 19, 2013, 04:02:36 PM
Pandora is doing very well recently, though.  Wish I had gotten more of that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2013, 04:14:21 PM
My AGNC is tanking as well, but I did the calculation and I'm still getting a 14% yield based on the last dividend.

Maybe the market thinks the dividend is going to sink like a stone?  Not really sure how this thing works.  Broke Buffet's rule #1 when i bought in.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 19, 2013, 04:18:03 PM
Hm, just noticed I picked up 150 shares of Annaly Capital Management (NLY) today.  Whoops :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2013, 04:21:37 PM
Dude, that's not even close to the spelling you were aiming for.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 19, 2013, 04:22:53 PM
 :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 19, 2013, 09:08:17 PM
Yields going up--bonds get hit. These REITs are taking it in the ass on their valuations, and that hurts the book value. It matters a lot if they are trading the bonds rather than holding them for the coupon. Everything connected to real estate got hammered today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 23, 2013, 10:52:17 AM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.chicagoreader.com%2Fbinary%2F9827%2F1359477787-tumblr_lh17zlt3ba1qb73tpo1_400.jpeg&hash=922d81a3fe3992b1d0331e9f937670431d154530)

Bye Bye!


Quote

Steve Ballmer Resigning



Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer put an end to years of speculation about his future on Friday, announcing plans to retire within the next 12 months once a successor is named to replace him.

Ballmer was employee number 30 at Microsoft, coming on board in 1980 – five years after it's founding. He was the first business manager hired by founder Bill Gates, and led a number of divisions before becoming president in 1998, and then CEO in 2000 when Gates stepped aside from the day-to-day management of the company. Under his tenure, Microsoft's annual revenue rose from $25 billion to $70 billion, and most recently he has driven an attempt to unify the mobile and desktop operating systems with Windows 8.

"There is never a perfect time for this type of transition, but now is the right time," Ballmer said in a statement. "We have embarked on a new strategy with a new organization and we have an amazing senior leadership team. My original thoughts on timing would have had my retirement happen in the middle of our company's transformation to a devices and services company. We need a CEO who will be here longer term for this new direction."

Microsoft's board has appointed a special committee to lead the succession search, and Gates is among its members.

"As a member of the succession planning committee, I'll work closely with the other members of the board to identify a great new CEO," said Gates. "We're fortunate to have Steve in his role until the new CEO assumes these duties."

Ballmer's departure will be the passing of the baton from one of Microsoft's early employees to a new generation, and one of the last executives to help lead a company from a start-up into a Fortune 500 giant, said James Alexander, a senior vice-president with the Info-Tech Research Group.

"Lots of people are talking about the fact Microsoft needs a change but just look at the fortunes of some of the other iconic companies, the Sun Microsystems of this world, and you have to say regardless of whether the criticism he receives for not growing the company or it getting stodgy, it's still in business and has the largest footprint in the corporate world of any organization," said Alexander.


MSFT +5%



:yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah:
:punk: :punk: :punk: :punk: :punk: :punk: :punk: :punk: :punk: :punk: :punk:
:cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 02, 2013, 11:47:06 AM
I'm going to make a defense play when the market opens tomorrow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on September 02, 2013, 11:53:21 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on September 02, 2013, 11:47:06 AM
I'm going to make a defense play when the market opens tomorrow.

How.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 02, 2013, 11:54:43 AM
Well, considering the thread title includes "stocks" in the title, it might have something to do with that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 02, 2013, 12:44:23 PM
I know these billionaire guys don't have human feelings, but I wonder what it feels like to announce your retirement, and have the stock of your company rally.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on September 02, 2013, 10:45:39 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2013, 12:44:23 PM
I know these billionaire guys don't have human feelings, but I wonder what it feels like to announce your retirement, and have the stock of your company rally.

YES! ALL THOSE OPTIONS THEY HAVE BEEN GIVING ME ARE GOING TO BE IN THE MONEY AFTER ALL!  :yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 03, 2013, 03:43:28 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on September 02, 2013, 10:45:39 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 02, 2013, 12:44:23 PM
I know these billionaire guys don't have human feelings, but I wonder what it feels like to announce your retirement, and have the stock of your company rally.

YES! ALL THOSE OPTIONS THEY HAVE BEEN GIVING ME ARE GOING TO BE IN THE MONEY AFTER ALL!  :yeah:

Your Ballmer impression is spot on. All screamy.   :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on September 03, 2013, 06:31:58 PM
Raytheon up .28  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on September 15, 2013, 10:48:30 PM
Big meeting soon. ;)

Meanwhile, Larry Summers has withdrawn his name for consideration as the next Fed chief. Stock futures soaring.

I accumulated a large position in mREIT American Capital Agency (AGNC) during the past few months' selloff, so it may be a big win for me if the Fed decides not to taper this week.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 15, 2013, 11:02:16 PM
You own AGNC too?  I think that makes 3 of us.

Do you understand exactly how they make money?  I've figured out their price goes up when rates are low and down when rates are expected to rise, but past that I'm in the dark.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 15, 2013, 11:04:18 PM
Why are the futures soaring?  Isn't Summers a big friend of casino capitalism?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on September 15, 2013, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 15, 2013, 11:02:16 PM
You own AGNC too?  I think that makes 3 of us.

Do you understand exactly how they make money?  I've figured out their price goes up when rates are low and down when rates are expected to rise, but past that I'm in the dark.

I own it also, but bought it when it was wee bit higher.  Just hoping to coast back into the black sometime on the dividend.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on September 18, 2013, 03:15:44 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 15, 2013, 11:02:16 PM
You own AGNC too?  I think that makes 3 of us.

Do you understand exactly how they make money?  I've figured out their price goes up when rates are low and down when rates are expected to rise, but past that I'm in the dark.

AGNC makes money off of the spread between short term interest rates (0%-1%) and long-term interest rates (3%+). Interest payments fund the fat dividends.

However, rapidly rising rates devalues the long-term portfolio of bonds/securities (?) that the company holds/maintains, causing a drop in book value (and thus market cap / share price) as well as limits recycling/intake (?) of new bonds/securities that keep the dividends coming, which results in dividend cuts.

However, Fed today will not taper as expected, thus causing AGNC to  :showoff:

I believe the worst is behind us and am cautiously optimistic that AGNC will climb back towards $30 with healthy dividends.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 18, 2013, 03:56:28 PM
Thanks dude.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 18, 2013, 04:00:06 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2013, 11:04:18 PM
Why are the futures soaring?  Isn't Summers a big friend of casino capitalism?

He made statements expressing skepticism about the efficacy of QE and some musings about bubbles.
So the conclusion is that he was more likely to be hawkish on monetary policy.
I think that was probably a misunderstanding but Yellen is clearly the more known quantity and has backed the Bernanke line all the way.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on September 18, 2013, 05:39:02 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 18, 2013, 04:00:06 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 15, 2013, 11:04:18 PM
Why are the futures soaring?  Isn't Summers a big friend of casino capitalism?

He made statements expressing skepticism about the efficacy of QE and some musings about bubbles.
So the conclusion is that he was more likely to be hawkish on monetary policy.
I think that was probably a misunderstanding but Yellen is clearly the more known quantity and has backed the Bernanke line all the way.

So that's a confirmation that a bubble is forming and plenty of people are going to make a good deal of money for quite some time as it inflates ?  :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on September 18, 2013, 08:21:09 PM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324492604579083243936441418.html (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324492604579083243936441418.html)

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FP1-BN199_LIONDO_G_20130918190603.jpg&hash=d7383d665085b3c58cc7e3aa4b7d217c095372a7)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on September 18, 2013, 10:40:23 PM
Marc Faber: We Are in `QE Unlimited'
http://bloom.bg/18zIe7j (http://bloom.bg/18zIe7j)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 19, 2013, 03:45:49 AM
Explain this to me guys.

At the end of the day, QE is about "printing" money to create demand which otherwise would not be there, right? And considering all the angst over turning it off, I suppose there is no real demand to replace it. What is the endgame with this then? How is this different from the situation that caused the crisis?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 19, 2013, 08:58:51 AM
Quote from: mongers on September 18, 2013, 05:39:02 PM
So that's a confirmation that a bubble is forming and plenty of people are going to make a good deal of money for quite some time as it inflates ?  :unsure:

No I do not think there is a bubble forming.
US stocks do appear to be somewhat overvalued on traditional measures but I would not characterize that as a bubble.
The Feds job is to promote price stability and employment, not target the S&P.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on September 19, 2013, 09:05:46 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on September 19, 2013, 08:58:51 AM
Quote from: mongers on September 18, 2013, 05:39:02 PM
So that's a confirmation that a bubble is forming and plenty of people are going to make a good deal of money for quite some time as it inflates ?  :unsure:

No I do not think there is a bubble forming.
US stocks do appear to be somewhat overvalued on traditional measures but I would not characterize that as a bubble.
The Feds job is to promote price stability and employment, not target the S&P.

:thumbsup:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 19, 2013, 09:06:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 19, 2013, 03:45:49 AM
Explain this to me guys.

At the end of the day, QE is about "printing" money to create demand which otherwise would not be there, right? And considering all the angst over turning it off, I suppose there is no real demand to replace it. What is the endgame with this then? How is this different from the situation that caused the crisis?

QE involves swapping one liquid asset (fed reserves) for another slightly less liquid asset (treasury or agency bonds).
The theory is that how it works is through direct effects on the yield of the purchased debt, but more important by influencing expectations of future inflation and output.
The endgame is to try to restore the economy to an "equilibrium path" back to full employment and to normal levels of nominal income growth.  So there would be "real demand" again if it works.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on September 19, 2013, 09:20:38 AM
Quote from: citizen k on September 18, 2013, 10:40:23 PM
Marc Faber: We Are in `QE Unlimited'
http://bloom.bg/18zIe7j (http://bloom.bg/18zIe7j)

There is a whole class of hedge fund types that hate Bernanke because they got burned fighting the Fed while trying to short Treasuries.  Faber is one of them.

In December 2008, Faber advised that the big trade for 2009 was to "go short Treasuries massively"  (http://www.cnbc.com/id/28418476/site/14081545)
Anyone who did that trade would have been killed.
In early 2010, he warned that inflation would "explode" and again advised shorting Treasuries.  Once again, no inflation manifested and the Treasury short was a widowmaker trade.

Faber is a bit more sophisticated than some of these guys but I would still take what he says with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 19, 2013, 11:08:36 AM
My PBI has climbed back into the green. :yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 03, 2013, 05:54:32 PM
I've adjusted my sell orders. I've placed Ed's finances on yellow alert. Raise the shields.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 05, 2013, 02:52:05 PM
Heard on NPR that trading was suspended on shares of Tweeter after it rose 1,400% in one day, as people thought they were buying Twitter.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 05, 2013, 03:18:08 PM
 :XD: Hopefully someone was fast enough on the trigger to sell.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 10, 2013, 05:10:53 PM
MAH SHAREHOLDER VALUE  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 10, 2013, 05:30:27 PM
Amen.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 10, 2013, 05:32:21 PM
We trade on sideshows now.  :P

I lightened up on some positions today. Thanks, Boehner and Obama.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 15, 2013, 05:45:09 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on October 03, 2013, 05:54:32 PM
I've adjusted my sell orders. I've placed Ed's finances on yellow alert. Raise the shields.

Moving to red alert. Raise the shields. MAH SHAREHOLDER VALUE
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 16, 2013, 04:33:47 PM
Time to start taking profits out. SELL MORTIMER, SELL!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2013, 07:47:04 PM
I've got a limit sell order on my mom's SPY at 175.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on October 18, 2013, 01:28:55 AM
Good rally today for Sprint (S) due to analyst upgrades. I sold off part of my position for a slight profit, but stand ready to buy if the price dips to $6 again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 03, 2013, 05:26:02 PM
PBI has come back from the grave.  Up 20% since I bought in.  :)

AGNC continues its death spiral, but I ran the numbers and the last dividend was still good enough for a 8% yield.

Anyone know anything about Master Limited Partnerships?  Specifically, a bar buddy of mine who does electrical engineering for Apache opted out of his employee stock plan because (according to him) if you own an MLP you have to file taxes in every state they do business in.  I'm trying to find out if that's true or not.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on November 03, 2013, 06:26:54 PM
AGNC is once again oversold. What makes people think the company's portfolio will suffer any more book value loss from $25? Interest rates have fallen from their peak in early September.

I bought more shares last week at $22.09 and the company's President bought more at $21.66

Near-term threat is that "experts" now think there is a chance of Fed QE tapering in December.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 03, 2013, 07:31:12 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 03, 2013, 05:26:02 PM
Anyone know anything about Master Limited Partnerships?  Specifically, a bar buddy of mine who does electrical engineering for Apache opted out of his employee stock plan because (according to him) if you own an MLP you have to file taxes in every state they do business in.  I'm trying to find out if that's true or not.


Check the MLP you want to invest in. There may be a way to get the exposure to the investment without the tax headache. Kinder-Morgan has a listed stock (KMR) that exists to own shares of their MLP (KMP). Hopefully that makes sense.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328851-kinder-morgan-management-a-cheaper-way-to-own-kinder-morgan-partners

Just an example.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 03, 2013, 07:40:54 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 03, 2013, 07:31:12 PM
Check the MLP you want to invest in. There may be a way to get the exposure to the investment without the tax headache. Kinder-Morgan has a listed stock (KMR) that exists to own shares of their MLP (KMP). Hopefully that makes sense.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328851-kinder-morgan-management-a-cheaper-way-to-own-kinder-morgan-partners

Just an example.

Not crazy about the mandatory stock reinvestment.  Seems to me like your dividend is just diluting your ownership.

Can you confirm the tax hassles of owning an MLP outright?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 11:37:44 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 03, 2013, 07:40:54 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 03, 2013, 07:31:12 PM
Check the MLP you want to invest in. There may be a way to get the exposure to the investment without the tax headache. Kinder-Morgan has a listed stock (KMR) that exists to own shares of their MLP (KMP). Hopefully that makes sense.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328851-kinder-morgan-management-a-cheaper-way-to-own-kinder-morgan-partners

Just an example.

Not crazy about the mandatory stock reinvestment.  Seems to me like your dividend is just diluting your ownership.

Can you confirm the tax hassles of owning an MLP outright?

There really is no dilution so long as it's a distribution that is appropriate to your share of ownership (and you reinvest all of it).

MLPs can be an abject bitch tax-wise.  You end up owning a unit interest in a Publicly Traded Partnership.  Now, that means it'll trade like your garden variety corporation, but because you own an interest in a partnership you will received a K-1 showing your pro-rata share of the Partnership's operations during your period of ownership.  I remember I had to do taxes for a guy who day traded the damn things.  I ended up having to wade through a stack of K-1s about a foot or two tall with all kinds of weird oil & gas tax credits (and all this for about 23 cents of allocable income due to his ownership of .00002% of several MLPs for 24 minutes on July 22nd).

As to whether you'd have to file taxes everywhere, probably not.  Unless you've got a huge stake, your allocable share of the operations in each state is not likely to be huge enough to trigger the mandatory filing requirements.  It depends on the state though.  That's my thinking anyhow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2013, 11:42:19 AM
If new shares are not being created when you reinvest your dividend (thus diluting ownership), where are they coming from?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 02:33:16 PM
The issue here really is whether your ownership is being diluted.  It isn't if you're reinvesting.

Let's say you own 100 shares of something that has 1000 shares total.  The company decides to do a stock dividend (to make things easier in this example) of .1 shares per share owned.  You would get 10 shares, boosting your ownership to 110 shares.  The overall stock out would get kicked up to 1100 shares.  Before the distribution, you owned 10% of the company.  After the distribution, you own 10% of the company.  More shares out, but *no* dilution of your interest in the company.

Same deal with cash dividends if you're reinvesting, except that by reinvesting when others are not your ownership interest is actually increasing.  Like, in the above example, imagine if instead of taking the shares you took cash while everyone else took the stock.  Then you'd have 100 shares and some cash, but total shares out would be 1090.  Thus, your ownership would have been diluted down to 9.17% from 10%.  Flip that around such that you're the only one taking the shares and everyone else takes cash, you would end up with 110 shares in a company that has 1010 shares out (i.e. 10.89% ownership).

So that example assumes they're just issuing new shares from a stack of authorized shares.  The other way they could give you shares is by selling you Treasury Stock.  Companies tend to buy back a bunch of their stock on the market so that they can then give it to employees as part of some stock compensation plan, or to sell to shareholders as part of a DRIP (Dividend ReInvestment Plan).

So... yeah.  That's roughly how it works.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2013, 02:37:23 PM
Well that seems to be the kicker, doesn't it?  Whether the stock your are purchasing through DRIP is existing stock or new stock.

And I mispoke when i said dilution earlier.  What I meant to say is that (assuming DRIP buys new stock) is that your dividend is buying nothing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 03:00:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2013, 02:37:23 PM
Well that seems to be the kicker, doesn't it?  Whether the stock your are purchasing through DRIP is existing stock or new stock.

And I mispoke when i said dilution earlier.  What I meant to say is that (assuming DRIP buys new stock) is that your dividend is buying nothing.

Eh, not really.  Stock is stock.  If they're issuing new authorized stock, the total pie is increasing and your proportional ownership (and entitled to dividends) is staying exactly the same or rising depending on the actions of other shareholders.  If they're selling you stock out of the Treasury, it pretty much works out the same way.

The dividend is buying something - more stock.  The more shares you have, the more shares you will get dividends on.  And when you go to sell the stock, you're selling more shares.  So you are getting something.  Eventually.  The only problem is that the something you're getting could drop in value, whereas the cash is what it is forever.  It really depends on what your outlook is on the company.

(And what's up with these verification questions?  I disappear for three or four years and everything changes...)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on November 05, 2013, 03:00:37 PM
Holy shit - Nappy? :blink:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2013, 03:04:43 PM
Quote from: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 03:00:07 PM
Eh, not really.  Stock is stock.  If they're issuing new authorized stock, the total pie is increasing and your proportional ownership (and entitled to dividends) is staying exactly the same or rising depending on the actions of other shareholders.  If they're selling you stock out of the Treasury, it pretty much works out the same way.

I don't see how.  If your dividends are buying new stock, then the next go-around you're just slicing up the existing dividend pie into more slices.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 05, 2013, 03:18:10 PM
Maybe that explains the share price discount between the reinvest fund and the straight-up partnership shares.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 05:08:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2013, 03:04:43 PM
Quote from: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 03:00:07 PM
Eh, not really.  Stock is stock.  If they're issuing new authorized stock, the total pie is increasing and your proportional ownership (and entitled to dividends) is staying exactly the same or rising depending on the actions of other shareholders.  If they're selling you stock out of the Treasury, it pretty much works out the same way.

I don't see how.  If your dividends are buying new stock, then the next go-around you're just slicing up the existing dividend pie into more slices.

Yes, except the dividend pie isn't fixed.  In theory, if you take your dividend pie slice and kick it back into the company, the company will have that much more to invest in its operations.  If the company is at all decent at doing what it's doing, the return it earns on that reinvested capital should exceed its cost of capital, leading to more profits (and an overall larger dividend pie to be cut up).

Or something like that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 05:11:21 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 05, 2013, 03:00:37 PM
Holy shit - Nappy? :blink:

Yep.  It's me.  I kind of got busy these past few years (law school, CPA licensure, buying a house, starting a business...) and never got around to checking here too much.  It's not like I ever really posted much anyhow. 

How are things?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2013, 05:12:31 PM
Sure, and some companies like Apple have never paid out a dividend.  It just seems kind of gimmicky for a tracking stock of a MLP, which is required by law to pass 90% of quarterly profit to its owners.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 05:36:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2013, 05:12:31 PM
Sure, and some companies like Apple have never paid out a dividend.  It just seems kind of gimmicky for a tracking stock of a MLP, which is required by law to pass 90% of quarterly profit to its owners.

Apple pays a dividend... (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL)  :unsure:

Not really sure how it's a gimmick either.  It's same as would be for, say, a mutual fund.  It's pretty common and strongly recommended for the average long term investor type (it's the stock version of compound interest).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on November 05, 2013, 05:39:23 PM
Quote from: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 05:11:21 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 05, 2013, 03:00:37 PM
Holy shit - Nappy? :blink:

Yep.  It's me.  I kind of got busy these past few years (law school, CPA licensure, buying a house, starting a business...) and never got around to checking here too much.  It's not like I ever really posted much anyhow. 

How are things?

Holy shit - you went to law school too? :lol:

Things are well.  Languish itself is pretty much unchanged.  All of the posters of course are a few years older, with all that entails.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 05:49:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 05, 2013, 05:39:23 PM
Quote from: Napoleon XIV on November 05, 2013, 05:11:21 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 05, 2013, 03:00:37 PM
Holy shit - Nappy? :blink:

Yep.  It's me.  I kind of got busy these past few years (law school, CPA licensure, buying a house, starting a business...) and never got around to checking here too much.  It's not like I ever really posted much anyhow. 

How are things?

Holy shit - you went to law school too? :lol:

Things are well.  Languish itself is pretty much unchanged.  All of the posters of course are a few years older, with all that entails.

Yeah.  It seemed like a good idea at the time...  Who else went to law school?  Last I remember, Ideologue was either in or heading off to it for some reason...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on November 05, 2013, 08:08:08 PM
Sprint (S) hit a new recent high today. :)

I hoping for 100% return with a year or two.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 18, 2013, 10:23:00 AM
Bitcoins crashing again.

Quote

The price of a Bitcoin was sent tumbling Wednesday after China's largest exchange for the virtual currency said it would stop accepting yuan deposits — China's local currency.

The much-ballyhooed currency has now fallen by around 50% below the record trading highs seen at the end of November, when it briefly touched the $1,200 level. On Wednesday, the price of a Bitcoin was down approximately 20% to $550.

The exchange, BTC China, said that "due to the reasons that everyone knows, BTC China has to temporarily stop its yuan account recharging functions." BTC China made the comments on Weibo, a popular Chinese micro-blogging service similar to Twitter. "BTC China will continue to operate. Please continue to monitor our website, we will try to offer another way to recharge," the exchange said.

The currency has been on the slide since earlier this month when the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, said that it would not allow financial institutions to sell, trade or store Bitcoins, which it does not consider to be a real currency because it doesn't have any legal status or monetary equivalent.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 18, 2013, 02:10:42 PM
OMG Taper Taper Taper

Damn, the market just went down 50 then up 200 in less than a minute.


Edit: We've cracked $16k on the Dow.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2014, 04:12:22 PM
S&P down about 3% last two days.

Glad I unloaded my mom's SPY at 175.

Could this finally be the long-awaited tapering readjustment?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 24, 2014, 04:24:31 PM
I'm hoping so.  I dumped my Intel shares from the past 5 years on the 31st, with a 47% gain, for tax purposes. :w00t:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2014, 05:02:54 PM
Hey at least income inequality is reducing.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 24, 2014, 05:04:55 PM
:shakes fist:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2014, 05:43:40 PM
Strangely, this was my single best trading day of the year so far. The only position I'm holding is MSFT, and they were up today after yesterday's earnings report. And I'm selling calls against it at 37. I'm holding March puts on SPY, plus I did a daytrade with ten weekly puts this morning. That last one netted a super nice profit by itself.

I sold the wife's Microsoft ESPP shares today as well. 400 of them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: stjaba on January 24, 2014, 06:16:37 PM
Bought 10k worth of SPY yesterday.  :cry: I am investing only for the very long run, so a drop doesn't hurt my feelings too much, but I could have bought an extra share or two if I had just waited a few days.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2014, 05:12:04 PM
Mimsy, if your only position is MSFT, where are you parking the rest of your loot?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 25, 2014, 05:21:36 PM
That's the only position in my trading account. I trade in bursts and tend to have a decent sized cash position in there. But that account is only for doing the risky stuff. Most of my savings in the IRAs and such are in funds and ETFs. I'm not sitting on a life savings of cash if that's what you mean.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 27, 2014, 05:45:26 PM
AAPL snapping back about to the 500 level after hours tonight. That's a $50 loss. They beat their numbers too.


Edit: Clicky! (https://vine.co/v/Mu6PTxrIVL3?link=sfmw)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on January 27, 2014, 06:21:19 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 27, 2014, 05:45:26 PM
AAPL snapping back about to the 500 level after hours tonight. That's a $50 loss. They beat their numbers too.


Edit: Clicky! (https://vine.co/v/Mu6PTxrIVL3?link=sfmw)
Good. If Apple drops back towards $450, I will consider taking a bite.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2014, 06:23:38 PM
I get it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 29, 2014, 09:06:44 AM
BRACE FOR IMPACT
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 29, 2014, 07:27:13 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 29, 2014, 09:06:44 AM
BRACE FOR IMPACT

I was thrown across the bridge, then put the centurion in the disposal chute.

Out of 20 stocks held, 14 had their sell orders triggered. Fucking foriegners.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 30, 2014, 03:04:34 PM
Check out wrestling. WWE (http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=wwe)   :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 30, 2014, 04:59:41 PM
Amazon taking a crap after earnings today. Dropped about $30 to the 370ish range after hours. That leaves their new P/E ratio somewhere around 1200 or so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2014, 05:02:15 PM
PBI up 18% in one day. :punk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 30, 2014, 05:05:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2014, 05:02:15 PM
PBI up 18% in one day. :punk:

Their CEO was interviewed on CNBC earlier. 2013 has been really terrific for them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 30, 2014, 05:09:31 PM
There is some news that Bill Gates might be removed as chairman...

Uh oh.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 30, 2014, 08:40:26 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 30, 2014, 05:05:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2014, 05:02:15 PM
PBI up 18% in one day. :punk:

Their CEO was interviewed on CNBC earlier. 2013 has been really terrific for them.

:face:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2014, 08:41:46 PM
I bought into PBI as a stodgy dividend stock and it turns out to be a high flyer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2014, 11:01:28 PM
Just put in an order to cash out my PBI.

I am: taking profit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 30, 2014, 11:10:05 PM
I sat on the sidelines for a long time unsure, get what I deserve for always being so hesitant.  Apple at @110, Amazon @160, Tesla @35, PBI @18....   :(


Too damn cautious. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2014, 03:50:18 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on January 30, 2014, 11:10:05 PM
I sat on the sidelines for a long time unsure, get what I deserve for always being so hesitant.  Apple at @110, Amazon @160, Tesla @35, PBI @18....   :(


Too damn cautious.

If you were in the market at all in '13 you should have done all right.  Great year.

Anyone have any suggestions on what to do with the cash from PBI?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 31, 2014, 04:00:28 PM
I'm being really careful about adding positions atm. The market is pretty shaky. I still have MSFT and a couple days ago I added some Core Labs. Also a little Micron as a spec, but I'm ready to drop that on a whim if necessary. I've been selling calls against things to hedge the drops, but they haven't been too bad in any case. I shouldn't have been hedging Microsoft, maybe. Blunts the upside a bit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2014, 04:01:59 PM
Maybe I'll  just part it in T then, which is my bond substitute.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on January 31, 2014, 05:40:21 PM
Dividend is still pretty good on AT&T, though.

My former dividend cash cow, AAR, as finally paid off for me.  I got special preferred shares in the new American at a rate of 1.17:1, converting to common stock over 4 months.  With the gains the new stock has made since the conversion, I have doubled my money from what the original AAR position cost me, not counting the cash paid before the old American went tits-up.  I may flush the position once the conversions complete in April, though.

If anyone is interested in somewhat risky, high-dividend (10% - 12% yield) stocks, I have been doing very well with BKCC.  With dividend reinvestment I'm up almost 21% since May 2012, despite the stock's price volatility.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2014, 05:50:55 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on January 31, 2014, 05:40:21 PM
Dividend is still pretty good on AT&T, though.

Which is why I'm treating it as a bond substitute.

What line of work is AAR in?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 31, 2014, 06:06:12 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on January 31, 2014, 05:40:21 PM
Dividend is still pretty good on AT&T, though.

My former dividend cash cow, AAR, as finally paid off for me.  I got special preferred shares in the new American at a rate of 1.17:1, converting to common stock over 4 months.  With the gains the new stock has made since the conversion, I have doubled my money from what the original AAR position cost me, not counting the cash paid before the old American went tits-up.  I may flush the position once the conversions complete in April, though.

If anyone is interested in somewhat risky, high-dividend (10% - 12% yield) stocks, I have been doing very well with BKCC.  With dividend reinvestment I'm up almost 21% since May 2012, despite the stock's price volatility.

Seems pretty stable over the past 5 years, excluding the crash where everyone dived.  Got any more information on the stock?   Been thinking about investing deep into something, been waiting to get back into intel - with a .22 dividend....but if I can get 3600 shares with the same amount.....  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2014, 08:55:40 PM
Yowza.  Major correction underway.

Any guesses where the S&P 500 will bottom out?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 03, 2014, 10:34:04 PM
 :hmm: I guess those adverts about a 90% market correction this year I've been seeing were true. :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 03, 2014, 11:05:54 PM
I just sold out of everything besides an ETF that I'm already down so much on it doesn't matter.


Here's hoping for a good ride.  :cheers: 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 03, 2014, 11:15:38 PM
Puts on SPY help a lot on days like this. If you hate the market as a whole but like specific things and want to keep them it's a good way to do it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 03, 2014, 11:18:00 PM
My Total SA is hanging on. It hits 54 and it'll sell to.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 03, 2014, 11:28:56 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 03, 2014, 11:15:38 PM
Puts on SPY help a lot on days like this. If you hate the market as a whole but like specific things and want to keep them it's a good way to do it.

Can you ELI5 how exactly puts work?  Sorry for my ignorance, I know what they are, but not exactly how they work.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 03, 2014, 11:47:29 PM
Puts are a contract to sell at a certain strike price. They become more valuable the closer they get to the strike price, and a lot more after they pass that point. If they are past the strike price (lower for puts, higher for calls.), then you can exercise them--execute the trade specified. Each put is worth a hundred shares. So exercising it would give you a sell short position against whatever the put is on of a hundred shares.

When I use them, I nearly always just sell the puts back because they tend to track in value the same as the profit you would have made on having the short position on the underlying security they represent. If selling SPY short 100 shares yesterday would have made you a profit of $100 today, then a put on SPY bought yesterday would be worth roughly $100 more than you paid for it today. But selling 100 shares short costs a lot more money than an option does. So it's a way to get protection to the downside without risking tons of money, and the potential losses of doing it are capped at a small fraction of the value of the shares being controlled by you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 03, 2014, 11:53:18 PM
The reason I hedge with SPY is because there is the most liquidity there and you can be reasonably sure you will get the prices for things you expect--just because people trade it so much. If you have options on a stock that trades few options, you might not have buyers and sellers moving them when you want to trade. DIA is heavily traded as well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 04, 2014, 09:24:25 PM
What's next?

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303442704579363301581514102

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FWO-AR232A_GROWT_G_20140204190909.jpg&hash=35a4f2073b7cc2df68ff134713728f28639cad59)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 07, 2014, 04:08:52 PM
I have to say I really didn't expect today to be so up, but it was pretty clear early on it would be like this all day. I like when I get those clarity days. I've been so hedged my account has been net short for a while. When I got up this morning I was twelve hundred bucks in the hole. So I took on a small pile of weekly options expiring today and made up the difference with a day trade, even closed with a couple hundred dollar gain. Still hanging on to everything I had before.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 11, 2014, 11:57:25 AM
Traders will find their correlations anywhere they can.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fslopeofhope.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F02%2FFed-Deflation-since-1980-640x466.jpg&hash=e66fbc604aa6d029482cd84d39ad4d2130b9bfb8)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 11, 2014, 01:01:15 PM
Did Greenspan dive into the dirty laundry basket for these pants?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 11, 2014, 01:10:07 PM
Zoot Suit Greenspan.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 11, 2014, 01:10:28 PM
Wu Tang clan gave him a makeover.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FsM6vSaS.jpg&hash=e39f66f651d0f747f675539593ee62a34a22d572)



For those who don't get the reference:

http://www.comedycentral.com/video-clips/tw2ltp/chappelle-s-show-wu-tang-financial



:P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: FunkMonk on February 11, 2014, 02:57:21 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 11, 2014, 11:57:25 AM
Traders will find their correlations anywhere they can.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fslopeofhope.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F02%2FFed-Deflation-since-1980-640x466.jpg&hash=e66fbc604aa6d029482cd84d39ad4d2130b9bfb8)

Next year's new smash hit, Dismal Science, only on FOX.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 12, 2014, 12:43:15 PM
mREITs slowly recovering. Hopefully interest rates stay stable. AGNC was balsy enough to even buy $400 million of its fellow mREIT stocks in December and January. I will sell when share price gets closer to book value ($24).

SeaDrill recently downgraded and sporting a fat dividend of 10%+. Since I am bearish on the global economy and oil (short-term), I need another big drop (maybe near $33 or $30?) before I get into it.

Sprint has been very volatile the past few months. I will buy more shares if it drops down to mid or low $7.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: stjaba on February 14, 2014, 05:09:59 PM
Is the correction over? I was kicking myself for buying SPY at 182.96 when it dropped down to 174 and I kept reading doom and gloom articles everywhere. Now it's already back up to 184. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 14, 2014, 05:13:25 PM
My hunch is we're going to see more downward pressure as QE continues to taper off.

If we see any actual inflation, then brace for impact.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 14, 2014, 05:17:40 PM
Ended up holding off on BKCC, its up 30 cents in the past week so that's... ok.  Picked up Intel again at 24, my safe option, and its up 75 cents this week.  Still holding a sizeable amount to snatch up anything if it presents itself, still may pull the trigger on BKCC if that downward pressure resumes, dat yield rate.  :mmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: jimmy olsen on February 15, 2014, 12:09:22 PM
My investments are up 28% over the last year. ^_^
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 15, 2014, 02:26:58 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on February 15, 2014, 12:09:22 PM
My investments are up 28% over the last year. ^_^
Taxes on dividends and realized gains. :weep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 15, 2014, 11:53:11 PM
No such thing as a bad profit, Jaya. Don't make trading decisions based on taxes.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 21, 2014, 01:53:19 PM
Joey Ramone became obsessed (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbJxMd3Pls8) with Maria Bartiromo before he died. I never saw it. Sara Eisen's little sideways smile is a bit endearing though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 21, 2014, 04:58:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 21, 2014, 01:53:19 PM
Joey Ramone became obsessed (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbJxMd3Pls8) with Maria Bartiromo before he died. I never saw it. Sara Eisen's little sideways smile is a bit endearing though.

I'm writing a Jim Cramer song. I need a soundboard.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2014, 03:44:58 PM
Jessica Yellin has said that because of the divergence of long term and short term unemployment and the drop in labor force participation, the old line of 6.5% unemployment to start raising rates might no longer be in force.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on February 25, 2014, 12:41:26 PM
Since I disappeared from the thread after my last post: :P

- AAR was American Airlines' preferred stock issue.  It was one of the few preferred stock offerings that was not from a utility or financial institution.  Since the dividends were technically interest, though, reinvestment was not an option and they didn't qualify for the capital gains rate.

- BKCC is a joint venture between the BlackRock asset management company and the private equity firm Kelso & Company.  They provide mezzanine capital (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mezzanine_capital) for mid-market businesses.  They are small-ish (< $1B total assets) in Wall Street terms.

BKCC reports earnings a week from Thursday.  Since its Q4, it should include some information about the dividend going forward.

American has been rocking my casbah, though.  As part of the bankruptcy and merger, the new company made good on all the AAR debt to the full amount owed (par + unpaid interest) in the form of convertible preferred shares in the new company.  Half my holding has converted so far, and between payout and appreciation I am already at a 110% gain.  That doesn't count the several quarters of interest I received before American went tits up, either.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 26, 2014, 02:31:19 PM
Went short with 20 June puts on Phillip Morris yesterday.




Question: Who's in Tesla? Anyone shorting it? I'm having trouble convincing myself one way or the other. It's not like the Netflix-Amazon dichotomy. Tesla has both the super-positive outlook and also the crazy stupid valuation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2014, 02:49:07 PM
Apart from Dorsey4arbitrage short selling Treasuries (which I expect he's regretting immensely now) I'm pretty sure you're the only Languishite who engages in other than plain vanilla trades.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 26, 2014, 02:58:21 PM
Why it concerns me:

Quote
Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass 4m

I understand the TSLA narrative has shifted to batteries, but TSLA sells at mkt cap of $1.4 mill/car compared to GM at $6k F at $11k

How many more cars do they have to sell next year to bring it down to the 10k per car range? That's a crazy amount of growth already built in to the stock price.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 26, 2014, 08:38:13 PM
Dissuaded at $35 a share :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 26, 2014, 08:45:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2014, 02:49:07 PM
Apart from Dorsey4arbitrage short selling Treasuries (which I expect he's regretting immensely now) I'm pretty sure you're the only Languishite who engages in other than plain vanilla trades.
Not sure what you mean by 'plain vanilla trades' but I place limit orders, stop orders, bracket orders, etc.  I'm guessing you mean trading options and if so yes, I don't do that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2014, 08:48:01 PM
That's what I meant.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 27, 2014, 05:41:36 PM
I made roughly 70% more money from my trading hobby last year than I did from my actual job. The wife is now looking for some overseas jobs. London, Dublin or Singapore.

Shit. There will be expectations on me to do this professionally and I don't know if I can do it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2014, 05:45:32 PM
How hard is it for the spouse of someone with a work visa to get one as well?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 27, 2014, 08:08:51 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 27, 2014, 05:41:36 PM
I made roughly 70% more money from my trading hobby last year than I did from my actual job. The wife is now looking for some overseas jobs. London, Dublin or Singapore.
My dream.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 27, 2014, 10:49:18 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 27, 2014, 05:41:36 PM
I made roughly 70% more money from my trading hobby last year than I did from my actual job. The wife is now looking for some overseas jobs. London, Dublin or Singapore.

Shit. There will be expectations on me to do this professionally and I don't know if I can do it.


Sell me your secrets, for free preferably.  :mmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: stjaba on February 28, 2014, 01:54:25 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on February 27, 2014, 10:49:18 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 27, 2014, 05:41:36 PM
I made roughly 70% more money from my trading hobby last year than I did from my actual job. The wife is now looking for some overseas jobs. London, Dublin or Singapore.

Shit. There will be expectations on me to do this professionally and I don't know if I can do it.


Sell me your secrets, for free preferably.  :mmm:

Yes, I would gladly track your all your trades if you are that successful. My stock picking track record is miserable. That's why I just stick all my money in SPY now.

In fact, I have come to the conclusion that it is almost impossible for most people to beat the market in the long run, in the absence of proprietary information or the like. Or rather, that is the conclusion of the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street and I found the book's explanation convincing. That being said I'd happily follow someone's else strategy if there was a chance it is consistently better than the market in the long run.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 28, 2014, 05:34:57 PM


Look at a chart of the S&P for 2013. You didn't have to be a genius to make money.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 28, 2014, 05:43:52 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 28, 2014, 05:34:57 PM


Look at a chart of the S&P for 2013. You didn't have to be a genius to make money.  :lol:

I thought about pointing that out, but thought I'd leave you your little bit of glory and admiration. -_-
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on February 28, 2014, 06:03:30 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 28, 2014, 05:34:57 PM


Look at a chart of the S&P for 2013. You didn't have to be a genius to make money.  :lol:

Though you do need some brains and a sense of timing to keep it. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 03, 2014, 09:33:37 AM
Ed's shareholder value this morning:  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 03, 2014, 10:04:55 AM
My couple of legal-cannabis-speculation stocks have been going bonkers recently.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on March 03, 2014, 10:10:00 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2014, 02:49:07 PM
Apart from Dorsey4arbitrage short selling Treasuries (which I expect he's regretting immensely now) I'm pretty sure you're the only Languishite who engages in other than plain vanilla trades.

Wait, what?????

That was a brilliant trade. I didn't get all the runup because I closed the position, but 10 year treasury rates have rocketed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: stjaba on March 03, 2014, 12:01:39 PM
Good time to buy more SPY? Markets seem to be down because the Ukraine crisis, can't imagine that will be a long term problem.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on March 03, 2014, 12:32:27 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 03, 2014, 09:33:37 AM
Ed's shareholder value this morning:  :(
Most of my portfolio is tied to US government bonds and oil, so :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 03, 2014, 12:49:28 PM
Quote from: stjaba on March 03, 2014, 12:01:39 PM
Good time to buy more SPY? Markets seem to be down because the Ukraine crisis, can't imagine that will be a long term problem.

I just put my IRA allotment into T, to ride out the tapering.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 03, 2014, 05:00:15 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 03, 2014, 10:10:00 AM
Wait, what?????

That was a brilliant trade. I didn't get all the runup because I closed the position, but 10 year treasury rates have rocketed.

Kay.

How much did you make on that deal?

I figured there was no way you beat the S&P's 30% gain with that deal.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 03, 2014, 08:38:48 PM
I cashed out a couple of my mom's stocks in '13, with significant capital gains.

Both the stocks were dripped.  Is there any easy way to report the capital gains  on 30+ reinvested dividends?  Anything short of inputting those 30 reinvested dividends one by one?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2014, 01:55:27 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 03, 2014, 05:00:15 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on March 03, 2014, 10:10:00 AM
Wait, what?????

That was a brilliant trade. I didn't get all the runup because I closed the position, but 10 year treasury rates have rocketed.

Kay.

How much did you make on that deal?

I figured there was no way you beat the S&P's 30% gain with that deal.

I really don't know. I cashed out a while back.

But, as a point of comparison, the S&P has gained 30% since December 31, 2012 (roughly). 10 year treasury yields were about 1.76% then. 10 year treasury yields are 2.61% today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2014, 02:44:12 AM
The formula for calculating a bond's value given the interest rate eludes me, but I'm pretty sure the trading price of those bonds didn't drop by 48%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on March 04, 2014, 10:15:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2014, 02:44:12 AM
The formula for calculating a bond's value given the interest rate eludes me, but I'm pretty sure the trading price of those bonds didn't drop by 48%.

They didn't. I think I traded some bond fund that had a blend of longer term bonds.

If the runup period had a 30% gain in the S&P 500, I probably didn't beat the S&P 500. But then that is an odd way to judge the profitability of an investment--an investor needs some diversity, and most of my money is in S&P 500 funds.

Maybe when I do my taxes I'll get the real data.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on March 04, 2014, 10:36:06 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 03, 2014, 08:38:48 PM
I cashed out a couple of my mom's stocks in '13, with significant capital gains.

Both the stocks were dripped.  Is there any easy way to report the capital gains  on 30+ reinvested dividends?  Anything short of inputting those 30 reinvested dividends one by one?

I'm not sure what you mean by "inputting those 30 reinvested dividends one by one".  The capital gain is just the sale price minus all of the money put into the position, including the dividends.  Is the problem that you don't have the actual amount paid out and you are trying to reconstruct it from historical data?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2014, 02:04:35 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on March 04, 2014, 10:36:06 AM
I'm not sure what you mean by "inputting those 30 reinvested dividends one by one".  The capital gain is just the sale price minus all of the money put into the position, including the dividends.  Is the problem that you don't have the actual amount paid out and you are trying to reconstruct it from historical data?

I think the software wants you to put in acquisition dates and purchase prices for each purchase, so that it can calculate which purchases qualify as long term holdings and which don't.

I say think because my dad and I have a weird relationship and he's the one filing my mom's return.

What would probably be simplest is if there's anyone here who had capital gains on a stock they dripped, and they told me how they input the purchases/reinvestments.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 05, 2014, 03:58:20 PM
Buys:

LNG
HON
WYNN


Short:

PM

I think traditional cigarettes are going to get hammered in the crossfire between newly-legal pot and e-cigs. When you can load an e-cig with THC oil, I mean come on. Every smoker I know is trying them or wants to.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2014, 04:06:20 PM
Alci, Jibber, there are your winning bets.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 17, 2014, 02:11:49 PM
Bought: LO

Short: Nothing except SPY which I buy a few puts just because. Also, I still hate PM. Puts on that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on March 17, 2014, 05:30:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2014, 02:04:35 PM
I think the software wants you to put in acquisition dates and purchase prices for each purchase, so that it can calculate which purchases qualify as long term holdings and which don't.

I say think because my dad and I have a weird relationship and he's the one filing my mom's return.

What would probably be simplest is if there's anyone here who had capital gains on a stock they dripped, and they told me how they input the purchases/reinvestments.

I can pull a statement from Vanguard that shows which gains are short and which are long.  I have not had to input that into tax software, though, because thus far I have only done this in my Roth.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 19, 2014, 01:43:27 PM
Janet isn't making the market happy atm. She doesn't seem to come across well to me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 19, 2014, 02:14:10 PM
Oh wow. this is going quite badly indeed. Glad I bought some puts.

Edit: Closed out with a nice gain to offset the fact that she's tanking everything else.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 19, 2014, 02:22:16 PM
Was there some announcement?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 19, 2014, 02:26:25 PM
Yeah the regularly scheduled Fed announcement. She read her statement and then everything fell apart during the Q&A. Lost about a week's worth of gains in a minute and a half. She seemed really flustered at first. I think this is her first one of these. I think we'll claw back a bit before the close. Well, in the next 40 minutes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 19, 2014, 02:27:39 PM
Teh Tapering(tm) was going to happen regardless of who was chairman.  You can't pin that on her.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on March 19, 2014, 10:26:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 19, 2014, 02:27:39 PM
Teh Tapering(tm) was going to happen regardless of who was chairman.  You can't pin that on her.
Tapering's not the issue. Problem is that she signaled the Fed may raise short-term interest rates earlier than expected.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2014, 05:41:17 PM
Tapering and raising the discount rate are parts of the same parcel.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2014, 06:19:10 PM
Tapering is priced-in. Everyone already expects it.


Yesterday's little drama was the result of tradebots parsing her words and trading off of it combined with her accidentally making a mis-statement while answering a question. The result is a mini-flashcrash. Dudes clicking buttons can't drop the market that much that fast.

This is why Benny was so crazy precise with his wording, but mini versions of this happened to him a few times too.

Anyway, we got it all back.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2014, 06:23:56 PM
Then you should thank her for creating an upside opportunity.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2014, 06:37:00 PM
In the gloating department, AT&T jumped 2 clams a share after I dumped a bunch of money into it.  :showoff:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2014, 06:57:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2014, 06:23:56 PM
Then you should thank her for creating an upside opportunity.  :)

I had puts on SPY which I sold while it was cratered. Janet bought my plane ticket to Europe with that little slip.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2014, 07:03:35 PM
Jessica. :nerd:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2014, 03:41:13 PM
Big drop in the market today. S&P is down 2%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on April 10, 2014, 03:55:02 PM
I should CoCo.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 10, 2014, 04:08:23 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2014, 06:19:10 PM
Tapering is priced-in. Everyone already expects it.


Yesterday's little drama was the result of tradebots parsing her words and trading off of it combined with her accidentally making a mis-statement while answering a question. The result is a mini-flashcrash. Dudes clicking buttons can't drop the market that much that fast.

This is why Benny was so crazy precise with his wording, but mini versions of this happened to him a few times too.

Anyway, we got it all back.
If I were a Federal Reserve chairman, I would deliberately fuck with all those Twitter-parsing bots.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on April 10, 2014, 07:04:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2014, 03:41:13 PM
Big drop in the market today. S&P is down 2%.
AGNC rose today, so I sold some.
SDRL dropped today, so I bought some.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 29, 2014, 02:45:10 PM
Stuff I have:

MSFT: up 7%

CLB: up 7%

LO: up 13%

Calls sold every month on those pulling down some free money.

PM put: down 50%

Short PM put (offset for time premium): up 40%

So I've made way more money on the LO buy than (I lost on) the PM put. They've essentially traded together and it's acting as a hedged position. I've noticed that happens a lot now that people have been using ETFs more and more. Things trade together with their sectors more than they ever did before. So my ecig theory was right but my idea that it would hurt PM was not. So far, anyway. Can't win 'em all.

Covered call strategy has been working well recently with the market going sideways.




Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on April 29, 2014, 04:17:16 PM
I am hoping for a short-term pull-back in AGNC and SDRL before their June ex-dividend dates.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 29, 2014, 04:54:52 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on April 29, 2014, 04:17:16 PM
I am hoping for a short-term pull-back in AGNC and SDRL before their June ex-dividend dates.

Well the market just bounced off the all-time highs again without quite getting there. The last four times that's happened have been great shorting opportunities, so you might get your buying opportunity in roughly a couple weeks if it holds the pattern.

Of course now that I've said that, it'll finally break through and hit a runner in the morning.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 29, 2014, 05:43:19 PM
I think AGNC is a countercyclical play.  If the economy does well, it increases the likelihood of Fed rate hikes, which fuck up AGNC's play.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 29, 2014, 05:47:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 29, 2014, 05:43:19 PM
I think AGNC is a countercyclical play.  If the economy does well, it increases the likelihood of Fed rate hikes, which fuck up AGNC's play.

Yeah rate hikes would mess their valuation. I think the traders are trading on expectations there by undervaluing it. Future value reflected today, if you will.

Those guys have done a good job of getting short-term with their bonds though. I doubt they'll be wrecked by rate hikes too much.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on April 29, 2014, 06:01:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 29, 2014, 05:43:19 PM
I think AGNC is a countercyclical play.  If the economy does well, it increases the likelihood of Fed rate hikes, which fuck up AGNC's play.
That's the bet. I believe we will see low interest rates until at least late 2015.

The company is doing well now because bond yields have decreased from last year against expectations.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on April 30, 2014, 08:48:28 AM
U.S. Economic Growth Slows To a Crawl in First Quarter

The first read of first-quarter gross domestic product, released this morning, showed growth of just 0.1%, well below expectations of a 1.2% increase and fourth-quarter growth of 2.6%.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304178104579533412969885426.html
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on May 01, 2014, 10:17:09 AM
@ MIM


BKCC At $8.55

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:BKCC&ei=q19iU6iqM6SsiQK1Kw


Down 50 cents today after they lowered dividends to .21    :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 07, 2014, 07:07:56 AM
I have modest reserves, some of which (think a few thousand pounds for now) I think I should invest for the long term via a UK ISA account.

I am thinking putting it into a fund, then as more accumulates I would either add those there or "diversify" with other funds or ETFs.

But with all the major stuff going on in my life, I have really lost track of stock market and economical happenings. Which sectors would make sense to invest in?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 07, 2014, 07:20:32 AM
I've been pushing dividend stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 07, 2014, 07:46:30 AM
Something like this looks nice:
https://funds.barclaysstockbrokers.co.uk/clients/barclaysstockbrokers/search_factsheet_summary.aspx?code=B2PLJJ3&profile=0&header=N&deal=N&pop=Y

I might be just eating the government propaganda but the UK seems to be on a decent enough track.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on May 07, 2014, 09:58:29 AM
AGNC finally broke through $23 for the first time since October 2013; a nice victory, even if psychological.

I have been very pleased that U.S. Treasury bonds have been doing very well this year despite tapering by the Fed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 09, 2014, 08:06:30 PM
Read in the Economist that 80% of US retail investors pay for investment advice.  :wacko:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 09, 2014, 08:47:13 PM
I use the monkeys/dartboard method myself.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 09, 2014, 08:52:32 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 09, 2014, 08:47:13 PM
I use the monkeys/dartboard method myself.

I watch Jim Cramer. BUY BUY BUY

not really
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 10, 2014, 06:29:02 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 09, 2014, 08:06:30 PM
Read in the Economist that 80% of US retail investors pay for investment advice.  :wacko:

I spend many hours researching things. I guess that's really not too much better.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 10, 2014, 06:41:45 PM
Sometimes I think I'd just do better to hire MiM as my financial guru.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on May 10, 2014, 11:18:10 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 10, 2014, 06:41:45 PM
Sometimes I think I'd just do better to hire MiM as my financial guru.  :P
Hire him.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2014, 02:42:05 PM
Anyone giving any thought to the Alibaba IPO?  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 14, 2014, 02:47:45 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2014, 02:42:05 PM
Anyone giving any thought to the Alibaba IPO?  :ph34r:

A way to play that would be Yahoo!. They own a big share of it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2014, 02:48:57 PM
Alibaba is going  to be a US listing.  Don't see the need  to make a 2nd cousin play.  Especially when Yahoo! is otherwise a crap company.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 14, 2014, 02:54:13 PM
I agree with you, but not everybody gets a chance to participate in the IPO. The only other way is to buy after it goes public.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on May 14, 2014, 03:54:30 PM
U.S. Treasury yields hit a new low for the year today. Bond bears may get slaughtered in the near future if not already hurting. The U.S. economy might have actually contracted the first quarter, and there is no convincing evidence yet that this quarter will be a full "bounce back."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2014, 06:23:58 PM
AT&T is trying to merge/acquire DirecTV.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on May 14, 2014, 08:56:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2014, 06:23:58 PM
AT&T is trying to merge/acquire DirecTV.
Good. Hopefully we also get a SprinT-Mobile merger.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 19, 2014, 09:17:18 AM
Going to buy some EnorNOC (ENOC).  Read an article in The Economist.  They pay companies to switch off equipment during peak electricity demand.  Active in Europe, which is going to have increasing electricity supply problems IMO.  Plus they just reported a big quarterly loss and their share price dived.

I'm also thinking there's a built in discont because their name is  too close to Enron's.  :ph34r:

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on May 28, 2014, 08:58:44 AM
Treasurys Rise; Yield Touches 2014 Low

"Benchmark 10-Year Notes Fall to 2014-Low 2.464% Yield"

http://online.wsj.com/articles/treasurys-rise-yield-touches-2014-low-1401284037

Yields this year have been falling on mixed news and in spite of QE3 tapering. Imagine if bad news hits. Yet, stocks stay high. It is increasingly tricky to figure out what to do with investment portfolios.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 03, 2014, 11:40:39 AM
I left for vacation with everything fairly tight. Not much room to fail, but Core Labs did drop significantly. About the same amount as MSFT gained. Which is good for me and good for Mrs. MIM's sock buying program, which has frankly been languishing for more than a decade. Now that Ballmer's gone, there seems to be a spark, and I like it.

I had sold calls and offsetting puts on my CLB position (and the others too---no sense worrying about your portfolio when you're wandering around Ljubjiana). Anyway, I lost a couple hundred bucks there. Gained some in LO. More or less flat, as intended. Those PM puts are toast. I guess people just thought it was to dangerous a time to not be invested in tobacco. Luckily, I had LO to counter. The puts I originally bought on PM are worth about 3c each. I'm just going to let them go in the vain and worthless hope that maybe Carl Icahn will be caught trading them illegally or something.  In the meantime. basking in the happy of the gains elsewhere. My last negative month was August 2011. I don't want to remember that one.  :Embarrass:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on June 03, 2014, 02:04:41 PM
As soon I sell intel (house financing) it rockets up.  Would be my luck.   :angry: :angry: :angry:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on June 03, 2014, 06:52:34 PM
I am trying to find a bottom on Splunk (SPLK).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on June 03, 2014, 08:19:32 PM
Quote from: Tamas on May 07, 2014, 07:07:56 AM
But with all the major stuff going on in my life, I have really lost track of stock market and economical happenings. Which sectors would make sense to invest in?
I think RH recommended reading the FT's guide to investing which is what I'll do when I'm ready. But to be honest I doubt I'll be like these guys in terms of lots of trading.

Speaking of which what do you guys think of this:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027346/global-watchdogs-rattled-by-lack-of-fear-in-the-markets/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 03, 2014, 08:47:27 PM
I agree that bonds are dangerously bid up right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on June 03, 2014, 10:12:32 PM
Let's see what the ECB does this Thursday and then U.S. jobs report on Friday.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 09, 2014, 03:00:38 PM
Today's chart looks bad, kids. Like it wants to make a head and shoulders, which technicians hate. Or love to short, if you prefer. There's a gap to fill below as well. I'm thinking maybe 5 SPY points down would satisfy them.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 12, 2014, 12:59:00 PM
Yeah here's what I expected to see. Patience paying off for once.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on June 12, 2014, 05:13:44 PM
Iraq tumult gave my oil stock SDRL quite a boost; received fat dividend just two days ago (11% annual yield).

And any reason for flight to the safety of U.S. debt keeps AGNC happy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on July 01, 2014, 06:11:28 PM
Another stock market record today. When will it end! :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on July 02, 2014, 07:00:42 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on July 01, 2014, 06:11:28 PM
Another stock market record today. When will it end! :(
Hopefully not any time soon.  I am thinking of taking some of my recent earnings and buying a new car. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on July 02, 2014, 08:07:44 AM
Quote from: Caliga on July 02, 2014, 07:00:42 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on July 01, 2014, 06:11:28 PM
Another stock market record today. When will it end! :(
Hopefully not any time soon.  I am thinking of taking some of my recent earnings and buying a new car. :cool:
Which car?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2014, 04:54:17 PM
My Canadian penny stock has come roaring back from the dead.  I could sell out now for an 11% gain (over maybe a year :thumbsdown) or hold on in the hopes of further gains.  What say ye?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 25, 2014, 02:18:39 PM
Sell. No such thing as a bad gain. You can always buy it again later if it gets stable.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on July 25, 2014, 04:14:51 PM
American is going to give me ulcers. <_<  The bankruptcy was very good for me, but the volatility of the stock right now is nerve-wracking.

BTW, in case you fellow Blackrock Kelso fans aren't aware, their next earnings report, and probably dividend announcement, is Thursday.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on July 25, 2014, 08:03:58 PM
What are you thinking we are going to see?   :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 14, 2014, 11:28:17 AM
To those who claim you cannot consistently beat the market, explain this (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1408046400000&chddm=2415989&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXSP:.INX;INDEXDJX:.DJI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSE:BRK.A&ntsp=1&ei=d-HsU6iQEsyAsgfkm4DwBw).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on August 14, 2014, 11:55:56 AM
Berkshire has a 201k share price?!?!?!? That is not a lot of issued shares.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 14, 2014, 03:42:13 PM
I don't think they ever split. Buffett likes to have his investors really believe in it, and the high price weeds out the fast movers and the less-committed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 15, 2014, 03:52:03 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 14, 2014, 11:28:17 AM
To those who claim you cannot consistently beat the market, explain this (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1408046400000&chddm=2415989&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXSP:.INX;INDEXDJX:.DJI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSE:BRK.A&ntsp=1&ei=d-HsU6iQEsyAsgfkm4DwBw).

Who is the "you" directed to?
I don't think Warren Buffet is a languish member.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ancient Demon on August 16, 2014, 05:10:01 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 14, 2014, 03:42:13 PM
I don't think they ever split. Buffett likes to have his investors be rich, and the high price weeds out the poor.

FYP  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 05:22:37 PM
Why can't somebody just create an ETF consisting solely of Berkshire shares, to get around the absurdly high price?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 05:33:17 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 15, 2014, 03:52:03 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 14, 2014, 11:28:17 AM
To those who claim you cannot consistently beat the market, explain this (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1408046400000&chddm=2415989&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXSP:.INX;INDEXDJX:.DJI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSE:BRK.A&ntsp=1&ei=d-HsU6iQEsyAsgfkm4DwBw).

Who is the "you" directed to?
I don't think Warren Buffet is a languish member.

The "you" isn't directed at anyone.  It's a stand-in for people who think there exist investments that consistently outperform the market.  Several people on this board, Mono in particular, think this is impossible.  By that chart, though, it appears someone who invests all their money in Berkshire will consistently outperform every market index in existence.  Thus, I was asking those who claim beating the market consistently in the long term is impossible to explain how Buffet and his investors are doing just that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 05:34:56 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 05:22:37 PM
Why can't somebody just create an ETF consisting solely of Berkshire shares, to get around the absurdly high price?

I'm not aware of any reason.  As far as I know, a fund manager can choose whatever equity investments they want, subject to restrictions imposed by those who created the fund.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 05:37:54 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 05:33:17 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 15, 2014, 03:52:03 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 14, 2014, 11:28:17 AM
To those who claim you cannot consistently beat the market, explain this (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1408046400000&chddm=2415989&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXSP:.INX;INDEXDJX:.DJI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSE:BRK.A&ntsp=1&ei=d-HsU6iQEsyAsgfkm4DwBw).

Who is the "you" directed to?
I don't think Warren Buffet is a languish member.

The "you" isn't directed at anyone.  It's a stand-in for people who think there exist investments that consistently outperform the market.  Several people on this board, Mono in particular, think this is impossible.  By that chart, though, it appears someone who invests all their money in Berkshire will consistently outperform every market index in existence.  Thus, I was asking those who claim beating the market consistently in the long term is impossible to explain how Buffet and his investors are doing just that.
The standard answer is that it's impossible to expect to beat it.  In hindsight you can always find stocks that outperformed (and underperformed) the market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 05:45:22 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 05:37:54 PM
The standard answer is that it's impossible to expect to beat it.  In hindsight you can always find stocks that outperformed (and underperformed) the market.

I don't buy that.  The nature of what a market indices represent and the existence of investments that consistently beat their performance indicates that there will exist in the future other investments that will do the same.  If someone were able to figure out a way to identify some of these investments while they are doing so, and dispose of them before they cease to, this person can expect to beat the market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 05:48:48 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 05:45:22 PM
If someone were able to figure out a way to identify some of these investments while they are doing so, and dispose of them before they cease to, this person can expect to beat the market.
That's like saying that if someone were to figure out a way to build a machine that puts out more energy than it takes in, they would be able to create a perpetual motion machine.  Which is a true statement.  The devil is in the details.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 16, 2014, 06:45:32 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 05:22:37 PM
Why can't somebody just create an ETF consisting solely of Berkshire shares, to get around the absurdly high price?

Investment vehicles (not sure about ETFs) have been made to do that. It prompted Buffett to offer b shares at a much lower price (they are some fraction of the a shares).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 06:58:19 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 05:48:48 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 05:45:22 PM
If someone were able to figure out a way to identify some of these investments while they are doing so, and dispose of them before they cease to, this person can expect to beat the market.
That's like saying that if someone were to figure out a way to build a machine that puts out more energy than it takes in, they would be able to create a perpetual motion machine.  Which is a true statement.  The devil is in the details.

No, it isn't.  Based on the current understanding pf physics, a machine that puts out more energy than it takes in cannot exist.  If such a machine could and did exist, then it would be possible but not necessarily practical to create a perpetual motion machine.

Which was my point.  The existence of an investment in the past capable of consistently beating market averages, combined with the nature of how market averages are constructed, means that such investments will exist in the future.  The existence of such an investment that is itself composed primarily of investments also proves it is not impossible to find these in the future, as someone has done so in the past.  Thus, it is not impossible to beat the market or expect to beat the market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 07:41:52 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 06:58:19 PM
No, it isn't.  Based on the current understanding pf physics, a machine that puts out more energy than it takes in cannot exist.  If such a machine could and did exist, then it would be possible but not necessarily practical to create a perpetual motion machine.
Obviously I was a little ironic.  Figuring out ahead of time which investments will outperform the market in the future is only the most difficult, and some say impossible, part.
QuoteThe existence of an investment in the past capable of consistently beating market averages, combined with the nature of how market averages are constructed, means that such investments will exist in the future. 
Of course.  I can guarantee you that 100% of the investments today will either outperform or underperform the market during the next 10 years.  None of them can match the market perfectly.  They can't all underperform, so at least one is bound to outperform.
QuoteThe existence of such an investment that is itself composed primarily of investments also proves it is not impossible to find these in the future, as someone has done so in the past.  Thus, it is not impossible to beat the market or expect to beat the market.
I don't think you understand what "expect" means.  I can get 30 heads in the next 50 coin flips.  I cannot expect to get anything other than 25 heads in the next 50 coin flips.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 08:11:36 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 07:41:52 PM
QuoteThe existence of such an investment that is itself composed primarily of investments also proves it is not impossible to find these in the future, as someone has done so in the past.  Thus, it is not impossible to beat the market or expect to beat the market.
I don't think you understand what "expect" means.  I can get 30 heads in the next 50 coin flips.  I cannot expect to get anything other than 25 heads in the next 50 coin flips.

Yes, but an ideal coin flip is a purely random process.  Were I to randomly construct a portfolio, I would agree.  However, saying the expected return of a portfolio is not significantly different from that of an index is saying that there exists no method to choose positions that is known to be better than random selection.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 16, 2014, 08:32:43 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 08:11:36 PM
Yes, but an ideal coin flip is a purely random process.  Were I to randomly construct a portfolio, I would agree.  However, saying the expected return of a portfolio is not significantly different from that of an index is saying that there exists no method to choose positions that is known to be better than random selection.

Were there some method to consistently beat the market, everyone would do it, and you couldn't beat the market by doing it any more.

I'm very surprised by the BH share price.  I peeked at it not that long ago and I think it was trading at 16K.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: frunk on August 16, 2014, 08:38:38 PM
Consistently beating the market shouldn't be significantly more difficult then accurately predicting the temperature and barometer readings at a location a month in advance.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 10:46:29 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 08:11:36 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 07:41:52 PM
QuoteThe existence of such an investment that is itself composed primarily of investments also proves it is not impossible to find these in the future, as someone has done so in the past.  Thus, it is not impossible to beat the market or expect to beat the market.
I don't think you understand what "expect" means.  I can get 30 heads in the next 50 coin flips.  I cannot expect to get anything other than 25 heads in the next 50 coin flips.

Yes, but an ideal coin flip is a purely random process.  Were I to randomly construct a portfolio, I would agree.  However, saying the expected return of a portfolio is not significantly different from that of an index is saying that there exists no method to choose positions that is known to be better than random selection.
The efficient market hypothesis states that all information is incorporated in the price, so any deviation from the market performance is indeed a purely random process.  Yes, some portfolios are going to get better returns, and some will get worse returns, but you can't predict which of them will do it ahead of time.  To get better expected returns than the market, you have to expose yourself to more systemic risk than the market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 16, 2014, 10:53:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 16, 2014, 08:32:43 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 08:11:36 PM
Yes, but an ideal coin flip is a purely random process.  Were I to randomly construct a portfolio, I would agree.  However, saying the expected return of a portfolio is not significantly different from that of an index is saying that there exists no method to choose positions that is known to be better than random selection.

Were there some method to consistently beat the market, everyone would do it, and you couldn't beat the market by doing it any more.

I'm very surprised by the BH share price.  I peeked at it not that long ago and I think it was trading at 16K.

You were probably looking at a different class of stock than the one in the link.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 16, 2014, 11:05:19 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 16, 2014, 10:53:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 16, 2014, 08:32:43 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 08:11:36 PM
Yes, but an ideal coin flip is a purely random process.  Were I to randomly construct a portfolio, I would agree.  However, saying the expected return of a portfolio is not significantly different from that of an index is saying that there exists no method to choose positions that is known to be better than random selection.

Were there some method to consistently beat the market, everyone would do it, and you couldn't beat the market by doing it any more.

I'm very surprised by the BH share price.  I peeked at it not that long ago and I think it was trading at 16K.

You were probably looking at a different class of stock than the one in the link.
When you're as old as Yi, 1993 seems like yesterday.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 17, 2014, 05:58:17 AM
Sold Kinder Morgan for a significant gain last week. :cool:  I could have made more had my sell limit order not kicked off at my set price, but I'm still happy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 10:36:33 AM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on August 16, 2014, 08:11:36 PM
However, saying the expected return of a portfolio is not significantly different from that of an index is saying that there exists no method to choose positions that is known to be better than random selection.

There are two that have been empirically demonstrated to work - one is the small stock premium and I forgot the second one.  I wouldn't bet on either continuing in the future in the long run but an asset allocation plan for the long haul that overweight small stocks a bit wouldn't be irrational.

That's basically it.  There have been many studies of the active side of the mutual fund industry and the findings are pretty consistent - the managers don't perform better than the index in aggregate, and past performance is no guide to future result so there is no way to pick the "good" funds in advance.

The hedge fund studies are a bit more mixed - some have results showing a small but identifiable outperformance.  However, the investor does not benefit because the premium is completely swallowed up (and then some) by fees.  Also one should be careful with these findings as correcting for survivorship bias is tricky.

As to why the hedgies might be able to slightly beat market, I have the following theories:
1). There is just enough dumb sucker money in the market to be taken advantage of to eke out a few dozen extra basis points.
2) A few players may take advantage of insider trading and help boost the averages. 
3). A few quant based funds may for at least a period of time succeed in exploiting tiny arbitrage opportunities
4). The rare genius.  Maybe Soros.  Maybe Buffet (although he doesn't use the fund structure).  If these rare birds truly exist beyond statistical artifact they are rare indeed.

None of this is of any relevance to the ordinary retail investor.   Allocating to indices is the only smart play at that level.  If you enjoy the game of picking stocks, go ahead - it is better than going to Vegas or the track.   If the only interest is portfolio maximization though, then you are just sucker money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 10:52:40 AM
There are times with smaller cap stocks that I am convinced the market isn't efficient.

For example, one of my clients back when I was in public accounting had two different classes of stock--that only differed based on voting rights. A majority of the voting shares was held by a single entity, so voting rights really meant nothing. Historically the two classes traded very close together.

However, for a brief time, the shares widely diverged--the voting shares became worth more than twice the nonvoting. I'm not sure why--though there was an article written about the company as a great buy on something like Motley Fool that only mentioned the voting shares. I had left public accounting by that point, and so was free to trade their stock, and shorted the voting shares while buying the non voting. When share prices normalized, I made a decent profit, though I doubt any institutional investor would have cared--the company was too small to really make a huge profit.

There have been a few other similar circumstances (though less obvious) where I think that the market was missing something on very small companies.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 11:06:14 AM
AR - as I mentioned in the post above, small stock performance is one of the only consistent anomalies that studies over the years have revealed.  So you may be on to something, but it is very much the exception not the rule.

What these means for the retail investor?  Unless you are going to put lots of hours obsessively analyzing small cap stocks, nothing other than maybe allocating a few extra percent to small cap.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 12:57:50 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 10:36:33 AM
If you enjoy the game of picking stocks, go ahead - it is better than going to Vegas or the track.   If the only interest is portfolio maximization though, then you are just sucker money.

I don't see why. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 01:40:22 PM
Which sentence is bothering you?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 01:41:46 PM
"You are just sucker money."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 01:53:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 01:41:46 PM
"You are just sucker money."

OK.
If you are picking stocks actively, what you are doing is betting that the market price is lower than the true value.  Which means you think your own judgment about the stock is better than the considered judgment of other market participants.

What that means practically is that you are betting that you know better than:
1) The active managers - reasonably smart or sometimes really smart people who spend their professional lives analyzing stocks,
2) Quant types that deploy PhD math geniuses, supercomputers and proprietary algorithms to ferret out opportunities, and
3) Traders with inside information that you don't have.

That seems to me a bad bet - it's the old adage about what is going on if you can't spot the sucker at the card table - it's probably you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 02:00:48 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 01:53:20 PM
OK.
If you are picking stocks actively, what you are doing is betting that the market price is lower than the true value.  Which means you think your own judgment about the stock is better than the considered judgment of other market participants.

Not at all.  When I pick stocks I do it with the assumption that the market price is the true value.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 02:02:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 02:00:48 PM
Not at all.  When I pick stocks I do it with the assumption that the market price is the true value.

But then by definition you can't outperform the market portfolio, you are just taking on extra transaction costs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 02:07:42 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 02:02:53 PM
But then by definition you can't outperform the market portfolio, you are just taking on extra transaction costs.

One doesn't need to outperform the market to avoid the label of sucker money.

I don't see where the extra transaction costs come from.  The commission for buying an individual stock is exactly the same as for an index fund.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 02:27:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 02:07:42 PM

One doesn't need to outperform the market to avoid the label of sucker money.

I don't see where the extra transaction costs come from.  The commission for buying an individual stock is exactly the same as for an index fund.

An individual stock isn't the same as an index fund--it has much greater risk. Recreating an index fund through the purchase of individual stocks is going to be more expensive.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 02:30:41 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 01:53:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 01:41:46 PM
"You are just sucker money."

OK.
If you are picking stocks actively, what you are doing is betting that the market price is lower than the true value.  Which means you think your own judgment about the stock is better than the considered judgment of other market participants.

What that means practically is that you are betting that you know better than:
1) The active managers - reasonably smart or sometimes really smart people who spend their professional lives analyzing stocks,
2) Quant types that deploy PhD math geniuses, supercomputers and proprietary algorithms to ferret out opportunities, and
3) Traders with inside information that you don't have.

That seems to me a bad bet - it's the old adage about what is going on if you can't spot the sucker at the card table - it's probably you.

This really likely only comes into play with small caps. However, there is a form of the efficient market hypothesis that stocks will only be efficiently priced to the extent that they still provide a fair excess return for skilled market professionals. If so, a person may not be able to beat the professionals, but still beat the market, by accepting a lesser return.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 18, 2014, 02:38:59 PM
Quote from: Caliga on August 17, 2014, 05:58:17 AM
Sold Kinder Morgan for a significant gain last week. :cool:  I could have made more had my sell limit order not kicked off at my set price, but I'm still happy.

I sold half of mine, making it no longer my single largest position. It was up ~53% since I opened it, not counting the divs. So I'm happy too. I got all my original cash back plus many quarters of dividends along the way. We'll see what happens to it when the consolidation is done.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 02:44:02 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 02:27:16 PM
An individual stock isn't the same as an index fund--it has much greater risk. Recreating an index fund through the purchase of individual stocks is going to be more expensive.

Of course.  I would not recommend that anyone put everything they own into one stock.

But that doesn't validate Joan's argument.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 18, 2014, 02:50:10 PM
It's very hard to beat the market when you're managing a very large pile of money. The more you are managing, the harder it gets. That's why mutual funds can't do it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 02:51:42 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 02:44:02 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 02:27:16 PM
An individual stock isn't the same as an index fund--it has much greater risk. Recreating an index fund through the purchase of individual stocks is going to be more expensive.

Of course.  I would not recommend that anyone put everything they own into one stock.

But that doesn't validate Joan's argument.

It does if one assumes - as is true - that there exist very inexpensive options for replicating the market portfolio and getting perfect diversification.  The question then becomes why deviate from the cheap market portfolio?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 02:53:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 02:44:02 PM

Of course.  I would not recommend that anyone put everything they own into one stock.

But that doesn't validate Joan's argument.

I think it does.

Since you don't claim to have abnormal insight (you assume the market price is the "true" price), you are either accepting an inferior product (higher risk) or greater transaction costs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 02:55:47 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 02:30:41 PM
However, there is a form of the efficient market hypothesis that stocks will only be efficiently priced to the extent that they still provide a fair excess return for skilled market professionals. If so, a person may not be able to beat the professionals, but still beat the market, by accepting a lesser return.

Except that the empirical evidence does not support the existence of excess returns by the professionals, except the rather equivocal results for the "2-and-20" hedge fund/PE industry.  And there are good reasons to think that premium - assuming it exists and represents genuine alpha - is Not easily replicable even in part by non-professional ordinary Joes.

Personally I would not invest the time and trading costs to find out but OMMV.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 03:04:24 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 02:51:42 PM
It does if one assumes - as is true - that there exist very inexpensive options for replicating the market portfolio and getting perfect diversification.  The question then becomes why deviate from the cheap market portfolio?

There are a variety of reasons: preference for greater risk/reward than the market average, preference for higher dividend yield, yada yada yada.  Plus it's fun.

You seem to be backing off your original statement about sucker money Joan.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 03:12:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 03:04:24 PM

There are a variety of reasons: preference for greater risk/reward than the market average, preference for higher dividend yield, yada yada yada.

There are different types of risk. The risk related to being non diversified does not increase reward. Diversification reduces risk without reducing reward.

The risk / reward profile of the market average may not be the best for you, but generally the most efficient way to find such a risk / reward profile is through adjusting the asset classes you are investing in or specific sectors of the market. In the latter case, there are so many mutual funds specializing in different areas, that will probably be the most efficient way to change the risk/reward profile from the general market.
Quote
Plus it's fun.


Aka, gambling is fun.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 18, 2014, 03:51:12 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 03:04:24 PM
There are a variety of reasons: preference for greater risk/reward than the market average

Either market portfolio with leverage, or buy S&P futures ---> same result, but cheaper and better diversification

Quotepreference for higher dividend yield

Modigliani-Miller suggests don't bother but if you wish there are passive funds for that too.

QuotePlus it's fun.

Like I said before I perfectly valid reason,  I meant that in all seriousness. 

QuoteYou seem to be backing off your original statement about sucker money Joan.

Nope, just using more polite language.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 04:23:21 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 03:12:27 PM
Diversification reduces risk without reducing reward.

This is not true.

QuoteAka, gambling is fun.  :P

Gambling means no time value of money and house odds.  Investing is not gambling.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 04:41:19 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 04:23:21 PM
This is not true.

It is sort of a cornerstone of modern finance theory....say the expected return on stock A is 10%, stock B is 9%, and stock C is 11%. The expected return, assuming equal investments, is going to be a straight average of the 3, or 10%.

The risk, measured by the expected volitility of the returns, is not so simple, but if you are diversifying properly, it will be less than the average of the three. That is because the returns of a basket of stocks is generally less volitile than an individual stock.

So in risk adjusted terms, diversification provides a rare opportunity to have your cake and eat it too.

QuoteGambling means no time value of money and house odds.  Investing is not gambling.

That is a very narrow view. If you benchmark your returns against putting your money under the mattress, picking and choosing stocks may very well be positive sum, and thus not gambling under the terms you just provided. But if you benchmark against an index fund in the S&P 500, then it is likely negative sum and offers the average investor poor odds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 18, 2014, 04:45:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2014, 04:23:21 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 18, 2014, 03:12:27 PM
Diversification reduces risk without reducing reward.

This is not true.
:huh: Yes, it is.  Unless you're about to debunk modern finance, that's one of the basics.
Quote
QuoteAka, gambling is fun.  :P

Gambling means no time value of money and house odds.  Investing is not gambling.
The decision to trade actively over investing passively fits the definition.  It's a strategy that adds risk in exchange for negative expectation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on August 18, 2014, 07:03:47 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 18, 2014, 02:38:59 PM
Quote from: Caliga on August 17, 2014, 05:58:17 AM
Sold Kinder Morgan for a significant gain last week. :cool:  I could have made more had my sell limit order not kicked off at my set price, but I'm still happy.

I sold half of mine, making it no longer my single largest position. It was up ~53% since I opened it, not counting the divs. So I'm happy too. I got all my original cash back plus many quarters of dividends along the way. We'll see what happens to it when the consolidation is done.

I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter please.

Really though, I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts more often in this thread on stocks you're watching/moving on.

:hug:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 19, 2014, 08:32:34 AM
I try not to say much because I am constantly doing stuff, but if you look back in the thread you'll see things I have posted I was buying and selling and not always good ones. Occasionally I have missed. I'm all right with that as long as I usually hit, and I do. Once in a while, I know something so strongly that I will say in unequivocal terms and I'm almost never wrong on those. (Seriously rare.) Sometimes my scope is way more short-term than most people have though. Remember, I'm doing it every day. Some of my posts are pretty short term in nature. I trade a lot in options, and most people don't. So, I have tried to keep my stuff more to myself since people really can't get much from it.

Having people following my trades makes me nervous because I'm already risking my own family's well-being and the last thing I want is to be wrong when it comes to the college fund of some kid in Alabama. There's a lot of pressure in this.

But. I will give my IRA allocation. Here's what's in the thing right now, and remember that I am diversified across multiple accounts.

Quote
ticker          thing                  ytd
ACMVX Am Century Mid Cap 72.82%
FDSSX  Fidelity Stock Selector 80.71%
FMILX  Fidelity New Milennium  50.22%
IBB Nasdaq Biotech                -1.21%
IWM Russell                            -4.11%
KMP Kinder Morgan                 54.15%
MTUM iShares Momentum         0.90%

This is where I put my long-term things. Stuff I don't think about for a year at a time. As you can see, buying the small cap Russell index isn't working well for me at least. :p

Also, remember that mutual find "increases" include reinvestment. The KMP position earned me way more money than the New Millennium because the quarterly cash dividends don't show.

If I'm buying Ford calls in anticipation of earnings next week, I will generally not post that.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on August 21, 2014, 11:01:17 PM
I bought a lot of Sprint (S) this past month as it fell below $6
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on August 22, 2014, 11:22:15 AM
Thanks :)


I ended up picking up a hefty piece of BKCC, was that you, Yi, or VM that recommended that one?  Has worked out decently well for me.  Looking to hold long, but the dividends are delicious on it.  :mmm:

Otherwise im just holding TTWO which is up 25% over the past year, thinking of dropping it here soon, though.


Had to sell my 1300 shares of intel for the house.....has gone up $9 a share since I sold it two months ago.  :weep:


Looking at other opportunities, but I can't help but get the feeling that the market is a little...high... right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 22, 2014, 03:47:02 PM
That 70% gain is year to date, not life to date??? 

Year to date as in 2014??
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 10, 2014, 02:21:57 PM
Market has been in free fall.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 10, 2014, 03:01:40 PM
This market exhausts me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 10, 2014, 03:21:58 PM
Option straddles are working well though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on October 10, 2014, 03:36:18 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on August 22, 2014, 11:22:15 AM
I ended up picking up a hefty piece of BKCC, was that you, Yi, or VM that recommended that one?  Has worked out decently well for me.  Looking to hold long, but the dividends are delicious on it.  :mmm:

That was me.  I made the mistake of selling it a month ago to double down on American, which promptly cratered.  <_<  American now appears to be heavily oversold, so I will give it a week to rebound then cut my losses and move back to BKCC.  For those interested, the latter is only about $0.20 above its 52-week low right now and paying $0.21/share.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 15, 2014, 11:00:01 AM
Free fall continues.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 15, 2014, 11:01:47 AM
Since when is a 1%-2% drop considered a "free fall"?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 15, 2014, 11:04:52 AM
2% a day for 3 or 4 days.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on October 15, 2014, 11:08:49 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2014, 11:01:47 AM
Since when is a 1%-2% drop considered a "free fall"?

Since Obama became president.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 15, 2014, 11:10:05 AM
:o Oh, crap, my 401k.  :cry: It feels weird to win or lose a value of a brand new car, or two, over the ebbs and flows of the stock market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on October 15, 2014, 11:29:42 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2014, 11:10:05 AM
:o Oh, crap, my 401k.  :cry: It feels weird to win or lose a value of a brand new car, or two, over the ebbs and flows of the stock market.

I know what you mean.*

Well not a brand new car, but a brand new tank of gas. Ultimate unleaded even.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 15, 2014, 01:30:57 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 15, 2014, 11:08:49 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 15, 2014, 11:01:47 AM
Since when is a 1%-2% drop considered a "free fall"?

Since Obama became president.

THANKS OBAMA.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 11:28:46 AM
Down again today.

Anyone know what set off the drop?  I haven't heard any bad US macro news, nor an announcement from the Fed.

My guess is unemployment dropping below 6% makes monetary tightening inevitable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 01:59:31 PM
Mimsy: Etrade gave me 5 free option trades.  I feel like putting a bet down on a rebound, but I'm sort of overwhelmed by the information on the option screen.  Feel like walking me through it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 16, 2014, 02:17:04 PM
Sure. What kind of trade do you want to do?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 02:21:13 PM
SPY call.  I figure I dump a grand in.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on October 16, 2014, 02:28:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 11:28:46 AM
Down again today.

Anyone know what set off the drop?  I haven't heard any bad US macro news, nor an announcement from the Fed.

My guess is unemployment dropping below 6% makes monetary tightening inevitable.

Monetary tightening plus deflation in europe.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 16, 2014, 02:42:42 PM
Okay cool. Pick an expiration and a strike price. SPY is at 186.60 as I write this. Say you decide you want a call with an expiration of December(usually third week) and you think it will be above 200 then. You could either pick an out of the money call with a 200 strike (it will be cheap) or be safer and pick one with a lower strike price. If you do the latter, the value will remain longer if the market goes the other way and you change your mind. Both are equally valid.

It will give you the option chain table to choose from. Each one has a bid and an ask price. The bid is what you'll pay. These are denominated in hundredths but the option actually controls 100 shares. So the bid price on Dec20 SPY 200 calls right now says 0.66. That will be $66 per contract. So you could get about fifteen of them with your grand. Currently in the money(186 strike price) calls are showing 6.22. So those would cost you $622 dollars per contract.

I'm guessing you aren't planning to sell them tomorrow or I would have chosen way different examples like short term weeklies or something.

While you are looking at the table look at one other thing. It should show you the volume and open interest for each option. Higher numbers for these means there are more people interested in them. Volume is way lower for options than stocks, so I try to make sure I don't put much money into very low volume options unless it's for a specific purpose. If you want to sell them later, you will want there to be buyers available. Otherwise, you'll find yourself waiting for days for your sell order to trigger. That's almost never a problem with highly-traded options like SPY, QQQ, etc.

Edit: I forgot to mention that the option volume on certain stocks can hint where that stock will trade around opex time. Like if the table for MSFT options shows the highest volume and interest just above and below $47, then it's very likely that will be the price of MSFT stock at the end of the week.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 02:56:52 PM
I was thinking more short-dated, in part because I think it will bounce back quickly or not at all, and because premiums go up so much for long dated options.

For example I'm looking at October 24 SPY 190 priced at $1.13.  (You meant I pay the ask, not the bid, right?)  So that would be $113 a contract.

Can I tell how much that option will be worth if I'm in the money by the expiration date?  Is it just the market value -190 X 10?

And what kind of volume should I be looking for, or should I not sweat it with SPY options?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 16, 2014, 03:05:05 PM
Nothing really to worry about the volume with SPY. It's maybe the most traded options there are. Yes, you pay the ask, my bad.

There are calculators out there that can estimate the possible price at expiration under your conditions. I'm sure you can find many just by googling it. They use the Black-Scholes method usually. Abbreviated BS method. Generally, the profit will be close to the same profit you would get by the appreciation of that many hundred shares of SPY over the same period. You just have to risk way less money to get it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 03:25:37 PM
Oh what the hell.  Looks like at my option level I can't buy a simple call.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 16, 2014, 03:27:20 PM
Eh? I think I had to do an application a few years ago to enable all of the option types or something. I don't remember exactly.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 16, 2014, 03:37:02 PM
Oh you know the market had closed before you posted that. It might have meant you don't have it enabled for after-hours trading. I don't either.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on October 16, 2014, 03:40:23 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 03:25:37 PM
Oh what the hell.  Looks like at my option level I can't buy a simple call.

:console:

It must be hard to realize that after a lifetime of voting republican, advanced financial opportunities are only open to the 1%. Sad that you had to learn it like this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on October 16, 2014, 03:40:55 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on October 16, 2014, 03:37:02 PM
Oh you know the market had closed before you posted that. It might have meant you don't have it enabled for after-hours trading. I don't either.

Oh. Well, never mind that last post.  :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 03:53:23 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on October 16, 2014, 03:40:23 PM
:console:

It must be hard to realize that after a lifetime of voting republican, advanced financial opportunities are only open to the 1%. Sad that you had to learn it like this.

Talked to some foreign sounding broad at customer service and got the impression all you need for higher level options is applying 90 days after you've gotten level 1.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on October 16, 2014, 09:19:58 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on October 10, 2014, 03:36:18 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on August 22, 2014, 11:22:15 AM
I ended up picking up a hefty piece of BKCC, was that you, Yi, or VM that recommended that one?  Has worked out decently well for me.  Looking to hold long, but the dividends are delicious on it.  :mmm:

That was me.  I made the mistake of selling it a month ago to double down on American, which promptly cratered.  <_<  American now appears to be heavily oversold, so I will give it a week to rebound then cut my losses and move back to BKCC.  For those interested, the latter is only about $0.20 above its 52-week low right now and paying $0.21/share.

Ah nice, yesterday would have been a good time to buy back in.   :D 

Dropped as low as 7.86.  I strongly considered dumping in a big chunk of change, but I just have a big feeling that the market will come down more....  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 16, 2014, 11:11:30 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on October 16, 2014, 09:19:58 PMI just have a big feeling that the market will come down more....  :hmm:

I'm playing a wide spread both ways. Any surprise is profit. All downside is known and limited.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 21, 2014, 12:17:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2014, 02:56:52 PM

For example I'm looking at October 24 SPY 190 priced at $1.13. 

Current bid on these is 3.45. So Yi's trade of nine of them would have cost him $1017 and be worth $3105 right now.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on October 21, 2014, 03:04:59 PM
Quote from: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on October 10, 2014, 03:36:18 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on August 22, 2014, 11:22:15 AM
I ended up picking up a hefty piece of BKCC, was that you, Yi, or VM that recommended that one?  Has worked out decently well for me.  Looking to hold long, but the dividends are delicious on it.  :mmm:

That was me.  I made the mistake of selling it a month ago to double down on American, which promptly cratered.  <_<  American now appears to be heavily oversold, so I will give it a week to rebound then cut my losses and move back to BKCC.  For those interested, the latter is only about $0.20 above its 52-week low right now and paying $0.21/share.

American is going to give me an ulcer.  After closing at $28.58 the trading day after I posted this (13OCT), it has shot up to $37.77.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 21, 2014, 03:19:45 PM
The market certainly has come roaring back.

Pretty major sell-off, and I'm not picking up a thing about it in the media.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on October 30, 2014, 05:47:39 PM
I just got a pump-and-dump style email about Ryder.  Yes, the (formerly big and yellow) truck leaser Ryder.

Quote
Huge Potential! New Momentum Play with Bullish Technicals.

Stock Symbol: R
Company: RYDER SYSTEM INC.
Currently traded: 87.50
Trade Date: October 31st
Target: 91

Did You See Today`s News? Details Inside! It Will Be Featured In
The Wall Street Journal Tomorrow!

I can't figure out the angle.  Anybody ever see something like this before?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 30, 2014, 05:48:36 PM
At my work email I frequently get HOT stock tips.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Baron von Schtinkenbutt on October 30, 2014, 06:02:25 PM
Well, yeah, I get this shit all the time.  It's always for sub-$1 stocks with very little public information and that promise "1000% gainz!!!!!11onetrue".  I have never seen such a thing for an established stock worth $87.50/share and promising a mere 4% gain.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 30, 2014, 06:16:54 PM
There's an adage about when you start getting stock tips from cab drivers and shoeshine boys.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 30, 2014, 06:23:54 PM
How does it go?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 30, 2014, 06:41:51 PM
Google says the origin was Joseph Kennedy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy,_Sr.).


Quote from: Wikipedia
Kennedy later claimed he knew the rampant stock speculation of the late 1920s would lead to a market crash. It is said that he knew it was time to get out of the market when he received stock tips from a shoe-shine boy.

I guess he made a killing by being short into the crash. Huh.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on October 30, 2014, 06:43:42 PM
Sold out of my TTWO today, went up 11% today, 45% gain in a year on it.   :cool:

Think it's going  to keep doing well, but the old lady's student loans  :glare:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 04, 2014, 07:39:26 PM
One thing I've been doing recently when I want to buy stock is instead selling puts against it.

If XYZ is a good stock but it's selling at 50 and I'm happier paying 45 for it, sell a naked put with a 45 strike and get some cash. If it gets down to 45 I buy the stock, if not, I just keep the cash and let the put expire. Rinse and repeat.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on November 04, 2014, 10:00:01 PM
I swear, I either need to learn this shit better, or hire you as my financial manager.  :P

I'm that punk who buys/sells at market price.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2014, 10:05:44 PM
I work with a guy who used to do that full time for Shearson-Lehman. Sell the put until it strikes, then you own the stock.  Then you sell the covered call until it strikes, then rinse and repeat.

He claims he makes a 15% return doing that.

Course, you do miss out on 30% market appreciations, and you can end up owning $30 stock you paid $45 for.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 05, 2014, 12:38:17 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2014, 10:05:44 PM
I work with a guy who used to do that full time for Shearson-Lehman. Sell the put until it strikes, then you own the stock.  Then you sell the covered call until it strikes, then rinse and repeat.

He claims he makes a 15% return doing that.

Course, you do miss out on 30% market appreciations, and you can end up owning $30 stock you paid $45 for.

You understand it exactly. That's the risk.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2014, 01:16:48 PM
Just put on a sell order for 100 McGraw-Hill at 91.  105% runup since I bought in.  Holding the other 49 shares.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on November 05, 2014, 03:59:15 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 04, 2014, 10:00:01 PM
I'm that punk who buys/sells at market price.  :(
Do you at least use limit orders?  I haven't put in a straight market order since like 1998 or so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2014, 04:15:20 PM
I don't see limit orders as being necessities.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on November 05, 2014, 04:44:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2014, 04:15:20 PM
I don't see limit orders as being necessities.
:hmm:  Why not?  If I want a stock, I always want it at a certain price.  I stopped placing basic market orders when I ended up paying almost a buck more than I wanted for a stock back in the 90s because the price was spiking.  I'd rather not have position at all than have one at a higher price than I was anticipating opening it at.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2014, 04:49:41 PM
Because if I want a stock, I don't always want it at a certain price. :p

If I buy a stock I think is undervalued, I could miss out if the price rises above my limit.  If I want to sell a stock I think is overvalued, I could miss out if the price falls below my limit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 05, 2014, 04:56:10 PM
The main problem I've had with limit orders tend to be when the price gaps up or down after hours and skips right over my limit. I hate that. I still use them though.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 05, 2014, 05:03:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2014, 04:49:41 PM
Because if I want a stock, I don't always want it at a certain price. :p

If I buy a stock I think is undervalued, I could miss out if the price rises above my limit.  If I want to sell a stock I think is overvalued, I could miss out if the price falls below my limit.

It sounds like a problem with your limit setting, not with the limit.

If a stock is trading at $10, you are willing to buy it up to $20, and you set your limit at $12, you really shouldn't be mad if you don't get it when it gets to $13. Just set the limit to $20.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2014, 05:08:02 PM
Fair enough.  Entering the realm of meaningless though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2014, 10:46:05 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2014, 01:16:48 PM
Just put on a sell order for 100 McGraw-Hill at 91.  105% runup since I bought in.  Holding the other 49 shares.

Executed!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 19, 2014, 05:46:29 PM
A little banking fun this evening. (http://online.wsj.com/articles/senate-report-says-banks-gained-unfair-advantages-in-commodity-markets-1416434539)


Quote from: WSJ

Senate Report Says Banks Gained Unfair Advantages in Commodity Markets

Report Notes Deals Between Goldman, Deutsche and Others Drove Up Aluminum Prices

WASHINGTON -- A two-year U.S. Senate investigation of commodity-market activities at big Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS -0.73% and J.P. Morgan Chase JPM -0.31% & Co. found the firms compromised market integrity and put the broader financial system at risk.

The firms did so by influencing prices, gaining trading advantages with non-public information and entering risky businesses like uranium trading and coal production, according to the investigation.

The findings from the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations shed new light on how banks built up voluminous inventories of aluminum, copper and other commodities, often exceeding regulatory limits. It portrays banks straying far beyond their traditional business lines to dabble in lucrative but risky activities that posed legal and financial threats to the firms.

The Senate report also depicts the Federal Reserve as failing to stop the bank buildup of commodities, allowing firms like J.P. Morgan to hold assets well in excess of allowable limits. At times, the report said, the Fed was simply unaware of how much oil, aluminum and copper banks were stockpiling.

Investigators found J.P. Morgan exceeded restrictions on copper holdings by defining it as a precious metal despite its widespread use in industrial applications and exceeded aluminum limits by holding it as an asset of a subsidiary instead of the parent company. Morgan Stanley MS -0.20% held 55 million barrels of oil storage capacity, enough supply for nearly three days' worth of U.S. consumption. The report found that Goldman engaged in "merry-go-round" transactions involving aluminum for its own financial gain.

The banks say they adequately manage the risks of the activities and don't use their commodities business to gain an unfair advantage. All three firms have moved to reduce their commodities holdings amid congressional and regulatory scrutiny.

The findings are likely to put additional pressure on the Fed as it considers whether to restrict or reduce Wall Street banks' role in physical commodity markets. Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo is expected to testify at a Senate hearing on the report on Friday.

Democrat and Republican lawmakers said the evidence showed new reforms and restrictions are needed to rein in Wall Street's role in raw materials markets. The report recommended a series of actions that could shrink bank trading and strengthen oversight. While none of the activities highlighted in the report appear to be illegal, officials said they had not yet decided whether to refer certain matters to enforcement agencies.

"We found substantial evidence that these activities expose major banks to catastrophic risks that are poorly understood," said Sen Carl Levin, (D., Mich.), who chairs the subcommittee and will hold the two-day hearing. Executives from Goldman, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are set to testify. "They are raising costs and uncertainty for the end users of commodities, which hurts American manufacturers and consumers."

It's time for minimal slap on the wrist #9862583. If banks are your thing, they might get a temporary pop lower at the open tomorrow.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 19, 2014, 08:50:14 PM
I don't trust the source of the report. Do you really think a senate subcommittee was going investigate large investment banks and not say anything negative?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 20, 2014, 02:46:34 AM
Sounds very dog bites man.
Use of non-public info can be legal.  The regulatory allegations sounds like standard exploiting loophole kind of stuff.  And of course bank trading activities can "influence prices." Uranium is radioactive, but is trading it more "risky" than trading bonds or gold?

Commodities markets are where big boys go to play, it is a zero-sum game, and any sane individual investor shouldn't be anywhere near there in the first place.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 10, 2014, 06:02:25 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fthebooksmugglers.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F05%2Fbalanceof-terror.jpg&hash=177941a247d8fc041c9897adf8555feab5e2e63c)

Load the Ameritrade account into the disposal tubes

:bleeding:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 12, 2014, 04:16:15 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages4.wikia.nocookie.net%2F__cb20080826015621%2Fmemoryalpha%2Fen%2Fimages%2Fthumb%2F6%2F68%2FHansen_%28Commander%29.jpg%2F640px-Hansen_%28Commander%29.jpg&hash=a8b4eb1e87e0b9dcd2b34a39e85cd16513c2d685)

Tell my family......the silver is buried in the second shed *cough* *dies*

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 12, 2014, 04:26:47 PM
SPY puts doing great.  :ph34r:

Try some of these maybe?
http://www.tradermike.net/inverse-short-etfs-bearish-etf-funds/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 12, 2014, 04:32:16 PM
I'll take a gander into those ETF's.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 16, 2014, 03:30:40 PM
Just bought another 200 T with some of my winnings from McGraw-Hill, taking advantage of the dip.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 17, 2014, 05:30:49 PM
Nice rebound today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 18, 2014, 01:28:54 PM
Un otro buen dia por la bolsa. :punk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2015, 11:59:23 AM
Looking for Spain ETFs to plop my '15 IRA contribution.  AFAICT Vanguard doesn't do country-specific ETFs.

Anyone know of any alternatives to Black Rock?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on January 06, 2015, 12:18:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2015, 11:59:23 AM
Looking for Spain ETFs to plop my '15 IRA contribution.  AFAICT Vanguard doesn't do country-specific ETFs.

Anyone know of any alternatives to Black Rock?

Would this be of any help?  http://etf.about.com/od/foreignetfs/a/Invest-In-Specific-Countries-With-Country-And-Rergion-Etfs-And-Etns.htm (http://etf.about.com/od/foreignetfs/a/Invest-In-Specific-Countries-With-Country-And-Rergion-Etfs-And-Etns.htm)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on January 06, 2015, 12:20:12 PM
How about this?  http://etfdb.com/etf/QESP/ (http://etfdb.com/etf/QESP/)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2015, 12:23:29 PM
Thanks dude.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2015, 01:53:52 PM
Bought 200 shares of Spain.  Thanks Agent K.

Get to work Spaniards!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: derspiess on January 09, 2015, 02:47:13 PM
Lol all Spaniards now work for Yi.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2015, 03:00:50 PM
Not the half of the population that's working for the Krauts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2015, 03:29:38 PM
I think I may have bought the most thinly traded equity in the universe.  The price has not budged a fraction of a penny since I bought it.  The trading volume today is two shares.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 14, 2015, 03:34:31 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2015, 03:29:38 PM
I think I may have bought the most thinly traded equity in the universe.  The price has not budged a fraction of a penny since I bought it.  The trading volume today is two shares.
:lol:

I have one that would sometimes go a week with no activity on it.  That was not my best investment ever.  Lost 98% of my investment on it and still holding it today because I don't quite need the capital loss yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2015, 03:40:41 PM
I'm not worried about this security pulling a Cal, since it does track an index and can be arbitraged.  Plus it pays a pretty sweet divided.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 14, 2015, 05:25:05 PM
Good news for Blackberry: Someone finally took pity on them and offered a buyout bid.

Bad news for Blackberry: That someone is Samsung.


How's the Canadian government going to react?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on January 14, 2015, 05:28:52 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 14, 2015, 05:25:05 PM
Good news for Blackberry: Someone finally took pity on them and offered a buyout bid.

Bad news for Blackberry: That someone is Samsung.


How's the Canadian government going to react?

My guess - they'll be glad Backberry isn't going under.

ssix years ago it would have been a different story...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 15, 2015, 03:29:10 PM
30 year bonds below 2.40 atm. Time to refinance.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2015, 06:04:45 PM
1,000 shares of Spain traded today!!!  :w00t:

4% bounce in the price!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 23, 2015, 01:13:30 AM
Draghi bagged me enough scratch today to buy two tickets to visit him.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2015, 07:12:25 PM
My Canadian penny stock (made in Canada) got enough of a lift on news that they were close to developing some cow vaccine or other that I was able to unload 2/3 my shares at a tiny profit.  Unfortunately the loonie has taken a beating since I bought in so I'm still losing money on the deal.  Live and learn.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 28, 2015, 02:31:38 PM
Market's not reacting to the Fed very well today. Hedges making profit is generally a bad sign I guess.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 28, 2015, 02:34:54 PM
Oil going under $45 too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 29, 2015, 07:39:56 PM
Shake Shack IPO is tomorrow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 03:48:45 PM
AT&T got a ratings downgrade (to BBB) and the share price rose 2%. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 03, 2015, 03:50:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 03:48:45 PM
AT&T got a ratings downgrade (to BBB) and the share price rose 2%. :hmm:
I have some T in my portfolio. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 03, 2015, 03:57:19 PM
T and Mr T.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 03, 2015, 04:37:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2015, 07:12:25 PM
My Canadian penny stock (made in Canada) got enough of a lift on news that they were close to developing some cow vaccine or other that I was able to unload 2/3 my shares at a tiny profit.  Unfortunately the loonie has taken a beating since I bought in so I'm still losing money on the deal.  Live and learn.

Why the hell would you be investing in a Canadian penny stock?  The TSX venture exchange is not as properly regulated as it perhaps should be...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 04:41:09 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 03, 2015, 04:37:04 PM
Why the hell would you be investing in a Canadian penny stock?  The TSX venture exchange is not as properly regulated as it perhaps should be...

I wanted to show some faith in the high school buddy who was flogging it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 03, 2015, 06:17:13 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 03, 2015, 04:37:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2015, 07:12:25 PM
My Canadian penny stock (made in Canada) got enough of a lift on news that they were close to developing some cow vaccine or other that I was able to unload 2/3 my shares at a tiny profit.  Unfortunately the loonie has taken a beating since I bought in so I'm still losing money on the deal.  Live and learn.

Why the hell would you be investing in a Canadian penny stock?  The TSX venture exchange is not as properly regulated as it perhaps should be...

I am not sure your comment is correct.  But in any event there are considerably better reasons why someone (and particularly an American someone with currency risk) might be a bit dubious about investing on the venture exchange over the last couple of years.

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/27/can-the-once-mighty-tsx-venture-exchange-be-saved/   
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 06:34:10 PM
Anyone here have any experience with micro-lending?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 03, 2015, 07:05:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 06:34:10 PM
Anyone here have any experience with micro-lending?

No, and I see zero reason why I want to experience it, on either side of the equation. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 07:09:17 PM
I'm thinking about giving it a go.  Lowest rate is 6.86%, I've read default rates are 2%, and the site only takes a 1% fee.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 03, 2015, 07:17:11 PM
People who have tried it have told me they got default rates anywhere from zero to 30 percent. It seems like one of those things you have to pick your investments carefully.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 03, 2015, 07:21:11 PM
I have no problem lending money to BP, Goldman Sachs, the People's Republic of China, General Electric, or a real estate developer on the mainland etc.  There is no way I'll lend money to some farmer in India. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 07:23:59 PM
How about an office worker in the US?

One of the things I find attractive about this is that, according to the article I read, it is based on a market failure: banks don't charge different interest rates on credit card balances based on credit-worthiness.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 03, 2015, 07:24:44 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 07:23:59 PM
How about an office worker in the US?

One of the things I find attractive about this is that, according to the article I read, it is based on a market failure: banks don't charge different interest rates on credit card balances based on credit-worthiness.

Still no.  I am not lending money to individuals, even if that is my brother-in-law. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 03, 2015, 07:59:19 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 07:23:59 PM
How about an office worker in the US?

One of the things I find attractive about this is that, according to the article I read, it is based on a market failure: banks don't charge different interest rates on credit card balances based on credit-worthiness.
Are you talking about something like prosper.com?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 08:00:40 PM
I was looking at LendingClub.com.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2015, 08:06:09 PM
I don't know a ton about PTP lending but my understanding is that a lot of the originations are bought up in significant quantities by funds.  If that is true, then as an individual investor I would be wary of wading in because the inventory that would then be available is to certain extent what the smart money has taken a pass on.

Seems like it would be a lot of work to do it profitably given the risk.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 03, 2015, 08:07:06 PM
Is there a database of all past loans available?  It would be a fun predictive modeling project to try to cherrypick the among the equally-rated risks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 03, 2015, 08:08:26 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2015, 08:06:09 PM
I don't know a ton about PTP lending but my understanding is that a lot of the originations are bought up in significant quantities by funds.  If that is true, then as an individual investor I would be wary of wading in because the inventory that would then be available is to certain extent what the smart money has taken a pass on.

Seems like it would be a lot of work to do it profitably given the risk.
:hmm: Good point.  If I had that idea, then other people with more money and resources probably had it much earlier.  Unless there isn't enough money involved to be worth the time of serious quants.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 08:11:56 PM
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/browse.action

They let you browse loans available for investment without signing up.  Not enough info to build actuarial tables off of.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 03, 2015, 08:12:13 PM
Ooh, there is.  :w00t:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 03, 2015, 08:13:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 08:11:56 PM
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/browse.action

They let you browse loans available for investment without signing up.  Not enough info to build actuarial tables off of.
This looks enough:  https://www.lendingclub.com/info/download-data.action
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 08:17:32 PM
I'm not going to wade through a giant CSV file just to talk actuarial shop, but surely those files are just going to include the same info as the browse screen, no?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 03, 2015, 08:21:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 08:17:32 PM
I'm not going to wade through a giant CSV file just to talk actuarial shop, but surely those files are just going to include the same info as the browse screen, no?
Well, the CSV files have 50+ variables.  Obviously these variables are of no use if you can't also see those same 50 variables on the loan offer, but I think a lot of those variable are credit-based stuff that's not open to everyone to see.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 03, 2015, 08:26:52 PM
My panties fall off when DG talks shop.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 03, 2015, 08:42:07 PM
There isn't much I can do about it if the guys don't want to pay me back, right?  I don't hold any collatoral, and even if I do, I don't know what to do with it in case of a default.  The risk is far too high for the returns.  If there is a change in the macro economic environment, be it a Federal Reserve rate hike, a financial crisis, Greece doing funny stuff for the 924th time, or what not, I won't see my money back. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 09:11:23 PM
What are your fly-by-night real estate development bonds collateralized with?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 03, 2015, 09:12:25 PM
I looked into it some more, and it seems like a lot of really bright minds have already tackled that problem, and there are even sites out there lending out their algorithms for a fee (of course).  Even if I'm a good enough predictive modeler, I'm not a good enough programmer to beat the bots timing-wise that already exist out there.  Maybe there is still enough dumb money left for the taking after the bots snap up the good stuff, but I doubt it, and it's becoming far too serious of a problem to be fun.  I'll stick to Kaggle.

You can put your panties back on, Ed.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 03, 2015, 09:15:13 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 09:11:23 PM
What are your fly-by-night real estate development bonds collateralized with?

The prestige and face of one of the richest men in Hong Kong.  His business empire will be seen as untrustworthy, his official titles will be taken away, and he won't be able with walk among the elites with his head up if he defaults on my bonds. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 09:37:28 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 03, 2015, 09:12:25 PM
I looked into it some more, and it seems like a lot of really bright minds have already tackled that problem, and there are even sites out there lending out their algorithms for a fee (of course).  Even if I'm a good enough predictive modeler, I'm not a good enough programmer to beat the bots timing-wise that already exist out there.  Maybe there is still enough dumb money left for the taking after the bots snap up the good stuff, but I doubt it, and it's becoming far too serious of a problem to be fun.  I'll stick to Kaggle.

You can put your panties back on, Ed.  :(

Your model for analyzing the dumbness of the noninstitutional money is not overly rigorous.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 03, 2015, 09:44:14 PM
I prefer a good collateral to loan value over some gangster cred any day.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 03, 2015, 10:03:42 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 09:37:28 PM
Your model for analyzing the dumbness of the noninstitutional money is not overly rigorous.
You don't always need a model, sometimes good judgment reigns supreme over bunches of numbers.  My judgment tells me that automated algorithmic trading is a winner-takes-all marketplace, and being good enough isn't good enough.  My judgment also tells me that there is indeed a sizable potential to find significantly above-average deals, since prices are determined by one actor rather than the marketplace, and the nature of loans is very heterogeneous.

However, that's actually a bad thing for you if you're not an algorithmic bot.  If there is a potential to beat the average, there is also a corresponding potential to under-perform the average.  In the marketplace with algorithmic bots, guess who gets the second bag.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 03, 2015, 10:15:21 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 03, 2015, 09:44:14 PM
I prefer a good collateral to loan value over some gangster cred any day.

Well, for a small retail bond investor like me, the collateral isn't really something that I care about.  I am sure it is written in that 500 page book somewhere, but it doesn't mean much to a layman.  I can only process the size of the bond, the investment period, the yield to maturity, and a gut feeling of whether this firm will default or not. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 04, 2015, 04:47:00 AM
I am torn between two different ways to calculate if I have enough money to retire. 

Method 1: I need to spend x dollars per year after retirement.  The retirement fund needs to be x times 25. 

Method 2: The retirement fund needs to generate x dollars per year. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 04, 2015, 08:20:47 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2015, 08:11:56 PM
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/browse.action

They let you browse loans available for investment without signing up.  Not enough info to build actuarial tables off of.

Is my two-seconds look correct that a lot of that stuff is people seeking mirco loans to pay off credit card debt? So basically, I would be like the shady guy his cousin know, except I couldn't send a gorilla with a baseball bat to collect if he defaults?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2015, 02:00:25 PM
Not really.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2015, 08:30:58 PM
Picked up a phone and a calling plan at the AT&T store today (to facilitate near-term communications).  I jokingly asked the sales dude if there was a discount for AT&T shareholders, and he knocked $40 off the phone.

He also told me he used to work at GEICO, and picked up Berkshire shares through their ESPP.  Holds about 10 shares, so he's sitting pretty.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 08, 2015, 08:53:07 PM
Nice.  I too am an AT&T shareholder and my contract is up soon.  I will have to remember this. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2015, 08:55:35 PM
FYI, there is no official shareholder discount.  It's the "associate's" prerogative.  But obviously not a bad schmooze angle.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 09, 2015, 04:55:05 AM
The biggest Bitcoin trading firm in HK has failed, and the owner has disappeared.  Around 3,000 people have accounts with them.  I personally won't touch anything Bitcoin related. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 09, 2015, 04:09:12 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2015, 08:30:58 PMHolds about 10 shares, so he's sitting pretty.

Wow, nice. He's a millionaire.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2015, 04:11:48 PM
Eh?  I thought it was trading at $16K a share.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 09, 2015, 04:15:10 PM
A shares are over 200k each right now. I guess it depends which ones he's got.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on February 09, 2015, 04:18:45 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 09, 2015, 04:15:10 PM
A shares are over 200k each right now. I guess it depends which ones he's got.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BRK-A (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BRK-A)

Quote
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A) -NYSE
223,999.88  880.13(0.39%) 4:00PM EST
Add to Portfolio
Prev Close:   224,880.00
Open:   224,545.00
Bid:   223,416.00 x 100
Ask:   223,600.00 x 200
1y Target Est:   N/A
Beta:   0.25
Next Earnings Date:   N/A
Day's Range:   223,208.77 - 224,545.00
52wk Range:   168,000.00 - 229,374.00
Volume:   167
Avg Vol (3m):   352
Market Cap:   358.40B
P/E (ttm):   17.78
EPS (ttm):   12,597.69
Div & Yield:   N/A (N/A



Maybe he's only got the Class Bs ?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2015, 04:28:33 PM
I'm pretty sure he has Bs.   I asked if the price was still 16K and he said yes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 09, 2015, 10:00:47 PM
Unless I am looking in the wrong place, B's look like they're $160.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2015, 10:31:49 PM
Yeah, I'm seeing 149.

So maybe not as pretty as I had thought, and more consistent with working as a sales dude at AT&T.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 09, 2015, 11:01:31 PM
What's the difference between A and B Buffet shares?  I heard that he doesn't pay out dividends, and that's a problem for me. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2015, 03:10:29 AM
I think Bs are nonvoting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 10, 2015, 03:18:50 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2015, 03:10:29 AM
I think Bs are nonvoting.

:lmfao:  As if share voting rights mean anything to retail investors.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 10, 2015, 03:23:53 AM
Honestly, I have only actually voted a couple times. The last one was the Kinder-Morgan re-organization.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 10, 2015, 03:29:33 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 10, 2015, 03:23:53 AM
Honestly, I have only actually voted a couple times. The last one was the Kinder-Morgan re-organization.

I probably own like 0.000000000000000001% in many different companies.  I just don't see the point at all.  Plus, all of my shares are parked in a bank, and the bank has never asked me anything related to voting.  Not that I care. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 10, 2015, 03:31:49 AM
You don't get the voting packets in the mail?

I get them all the time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 10, 2015, 03:36:44 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 10, 2015, 03:31:49 AM
You don't get the voting packets in the mail?

I get them all the time.

I certainly don't.  I think HK's system is that the bank act as my "nominee" to deal with these things.  So the votes and packets go to the bank, and they vote for us.  I've read somewhere that investors have to open a separate individual account with some public authority to genuinely become a separate shareholder.  It can be done, but it is far too much work for nothing.  Most people who open those accounts do so to avoid a situation where, if their stock broker goes bankrupt, they'll lose their shares, not for voting rights.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 10, 2015, 03:46:15 AM
I think during the 08 financial crisis, there was an effort by HSBC to get the HK shareholders to vote.  HSBC is a favourite of local HK retail investors, and a lot of people hold shares in the company for decades, passing the shares from generation to generation.  But the international hedge fund investors are the only ones who vote, and they give the HSBC management hellish times.  Their solution was to push for the silent majority HK shareholders to say something, because the bank believe that we take a more long term view. 

I love HSBC, but sorry, I am not getting involved in your disputes with the hedge funds. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2015, 05:09:14 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 10, 2015, 03:18:50 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2015, 03:10:29 AM
I think Bs are nonvoting.

:lmfao:  As if share voting rights mean anything to retail investors.

The price differential between classes of shares does  ;)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 10, 2015, 06:56:06 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 10, 2015, 03:31:49 AM
You don't get the voting packets in the mail?

I get them all the time.
Same.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2015, 07:02:30 PM
I get mine electronically, except for the Canadian penny stock, which came in the mail.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 11, 2015, 05:57:59 AM
One of my bonds will mature next week, and I am not inclined to buy another bond due to the low yields. 

I am thinking of buying more US shares.  I already own AT&T shares.  What else is good?  I am really only interested in big companies, preferrably those that pay nice dividends. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 11, 2015, 06:16:22 AM
The companies that I am considering are HCP, Mattel, Philip Morris and TECO energy.  I can pick two.  My gut instinct is Philiip Morris first, because people smoke during recessions, even if they don't buy toys for their kids.  But Philip Morris also offers the lowest dividend among these four  <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 11, 2015, 06:16:58 AM
I like energy stocks.

re: HCP... I also like REITs and have a large position in one at the moment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 11, 2015, 06:24:53 AM
Quote from: Caliga on February 11, 2015, 06:16:58 AM
I like energy stocks.

re: HCP... I also like REITs and have a large position in one at the moment.

HCP and Philip Morris then? 

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 11, 2015, 06:31:50 AM
My position is in VTR, but HCP is fine too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 11, 2015, 08:14:43 AM
Quote from: Caliga on February 11, 2015, 06:31:50 AM
My position is in VTR, but HCP is fine too.

Ok, I'll keep VTR in mind.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on February 11, 2015, 08:21:06 AM
I know a guy, works @ Ubisoft, who owns a couple hundred shares of Apple. Brought them to Salary negotiation once apparently.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2015, 09:27:01 AM
He carried in paper shares?  :huh:

What for?  :huh:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on February 11, 2015, 10:30:12 AM
He says his pitch was basically. "I don't need to work here, do you need me to work here? If so, this is xxxx how much it's going to cost you."

AFAIK he still works at Ubisoft, so they paid up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 13, 2015, 03:42:22 AM
I just got my first ever notice to vote as a shareholder. 

The richest man in HK wants to restructure his two major companies.  According to the rules, he, as majority shareholder, cannot vote on the matter.  The bar is quite high - like 75% of minority shareholders need to vote yes.  That's probably the reason why my bank bother to invite us to vote, because such an important person needs it :lol:

I really wanted the restructure to go ahead, because since the announcement, share prices went up by 25%, and I want it to stay that way.  I struggled with the question "should I tick yes, sign it, and hand it back to the bank when I walk pass it" for a few minutes.

Then I read that the bank would charge me US$6 to vote for me at the Shareholders' conference.  I immediately put the entire package to the shredder without hesitation. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 13, 2015, 07:57:28 AM
As a rule, I always vote to fire the CEO of any company I hold stock in.  I like to think of myself as the slave sitting next to them at their daily Triumph, whispering 'memento mori'. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 13, 2015, 08:25:25 AM
Quote from: Caliga on February 13, 2015, 07:57:28 AM
As a rule, I always vote to fire the CEO of any company I hold stock in.  I like to think of myself as the slave sitting next to them at their daily Triumph, whispering 'memento mori'. :)

So you would vote to fire Steve Jobs when he was alive, if you held Apple stocks?  :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 13, 2015, 09:08:19 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 13, 2015, 08:25:25 AM
So you would vote to fire Steve Jobs when he was alive, if you held Apple stocks?  :unsure:

Cal actually led the charge:

(https://bonisatani.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/fall-of-steve-jobs1.jpg)

I bet you didn't know Cal had a large stock portfolio in 1985.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 13, 2015, 10:54:18 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 13, 2015, 08:25:25 AM
Quote from: Caliga on February 13, 2015, 07:57:28 AM
As a rule, I always vote to fire the CEO of any company I hold stock in.  I like to think of myself as the slave sitting next to them at their daily Triumph, whispering 'memento mori'. :)

So you would vote to fire Steve Jobs when he was alive, if you held Apple stocks?  :unsure:
Absolutely.  I would be even more inclined to do it if I help Apple stock, because I thought he was an enormous douche.  However, he was obviously good for the price of that stock. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 13, 2015, 03:01:09 PM
I was thinking about dumping the last of my McGraw Hill profits into IMAX, but then saw it's trading at 52 times trailing earnings.  On the other hand Thompson Reuters and SmartConcensus give it a buy rating.

Thoughts?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 13, 2015, 03:39:26 PM
Hey Mono, are you able to automatically reinvest your dividends, and if so, are you doing it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 13, 2015, 03:46:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 13, 2015, 03:39:26 PM
Hey Mono, are you able to automatically reinvest your dividends, and if so, are you doing it?

Yes, and no.  HSBC is a big believer in reinvesting dividends, and they do offer that option.  I don't take that up because there is the issue of lot size in Hong Kong.  In HK, we trade shares in standard lots.  HSBC for example has decided that its standard lot size is 400.  Most people have to trade HSBC's shares in multiples of 400.  Odd lots, i.e. chunks of shares in anything other than multiples of 400, are traded at a large discount, like 10-15% lower than their market value.  If I reinvest my dividends, I get odd lot shares. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on February 13, 2015, 03:52:29 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 13, 2015, 03:46:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 13, 2015, 03:39:26 PM
Hey Mono, are you able to automatically reinvest your dividends, and if so, are you doing it?

Yes, and no.  HSBC is a big believer in reinvesting dividends, and they do offer that option.  I don't take that up because there is the issue of lot size in Hong Kong.  In HK, we trade shares in standard lots.  HSBC for example has decided that its standard lot size is 400.  Most people have to trade HSBC's shares in multiples of 400.  Odd lots, i.e. chunks of shares in anything other than multiples of 400, are traded at a large discount, like 10-15% lower than their market value.  If I reinvest my dividends, I get odd lot shares.

I assume they don't let you buy odd lot shares (at the discount) and then sell them in the standard 400 size (at full prize) when you reach that number?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 13, 2015, 03:56:52 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 13, 2015, 03:52:29 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 13, 2015, 03:46:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 13, 2015, 03:39:26 PM
Hey Mono, are you able to automatically reinvest your dividends, and if so, are you doing it?

Yes, and no.  HSBC is a big believer in reinvesting dividends, and they do offer that option.  I don't take that up because there is the issue of lot size in Hong Kong.  In HK, we trade shares in standard lots.  HSBC for example has decided that its standard lot size is 400.  Most people have to trade HSBC's shares in multiples of 400.  Odd lots, i.e. chunks of shares in anything other than multiples of 400, are traded at a large discount, like 10-15% lower than their market value.  If I reinvest my dividends, I get odd lot shares.

I assume they don't let you buy odd lot shares (at the discount) and then sell them in the standard 400 size (at full prize) when you reach that number?

If you buy odd lot shares in the stock market, you pay a premium of 10-15%.  Of course, if you buy the odd lot shares from HSBC by reinvesting the dividends, they sell at market rate, so it is possible to accumulate the odd lots and sell 400 shares eventually.  But I also like to get dividend in cash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 16, 2015, 10:37:34 AM
Considering buying shares in a Chinese state-owned coal mining and electricity company.  A bit concerned that coal-fired power plants may not have a very bright future if the mainland is determined to fight air pollution.  But then again the dividend rate and price look good, and coal-fired power plants won't go out of business in the next few years. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 16, 2015, 11:39:05 PM
They'll get converted to burn Russian gas.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 18, 2015, 03:43:07 AM
Going to try to buy these tonight: HCP (HCP), Philip Morris (PM), General Electric (GE), Vanguard S&P500 ETF (VOO), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI).  Also will add a little to AT&T (T).   

One problem with buying US stocks is the time difference.  I need to stay alert and awake at 11pm.  I have an early flight tomorrow to boot  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 20, 2015, 09:48:04 AM
Market crashing this morning. If this happens four straight days, I'll make a lot of money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2015, 09:50:35 AM
Eh?  Not open yet.  Are you looking at overnight futures?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 20, 2015, 09:51:22 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on February 20, 2015, 09:48:04 AM
Market crashing this morning. If this happens four straight days, I'll make a lot of money.

How do you know this and why would four consecutive market crashes make you a lot of money?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 20, 2015, 09:58:29 AM
I have March puts. They are dead atm, but the closer it gets the more they wake up. 400 dow points would do it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2015, 10:10:45 AM
Not crashing.  500 is down 0.5% at the open.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2015, 11:29:46 AM
And rising.  Sorry Mimsy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 20, 2015, 05:24:32 PM
Puts went completely worthless. Calls now have the straddle in the green.  :P The last four days have been kinda wasted time. But hey, I'll take it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on February 21, 2015, 04:39:25 AM
I'm fairly pleased with a large (for me) purchase of Rexam shares I made in January. At £4.40 they seemed undervalued, a few weeks pass and Ball corporation have made an offer of £6.28  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 23, 2015, 02:35:14 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 18, 2015, 03:43:07 AM
Going to try to buy these tonight: HCP (HCP), Philip Morris (PM), General Electric (GE), Vanguard S&P500 ETF (VOO), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI).  Also will add a little to AT&T (T).   

One problem with buying US stocks is the time difference.  I need to stay alert and awake at 11pm.  I have an early flight tomorrow to boot  :lol:

I slacked off and didn't buy VTI.  Put the money in VOO instead  :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 26, 2015, 05:28:12 AM
Another bond will mature soon.  Thinking of buying shares in Royal Dutch Shell, Mattel and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. 

Ok idea?  Stupid idea?  Alternative ideas?  :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2015, 09:00:16 AM
You need some index fund.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 26, 2015, 09:33:27 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2015, 09:00:16 AM
You need some index fund.

Ok.  Vanguard Mid-cap (VO), Mattel (MAT) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2015, 01:37:20 PM
Residents of Iowa are not allowed to invest on Lending Club.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 02, 2015, 09:59:11 AM
Just bought me some Germany.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 02, 2015, 02:48:07 PM
All this sideways movement is annoying. It just melts away the time premium.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 02, 2015, 08:35:59 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 02, 2015, 02:48:07 PM
All this sideways movement is annoying. It just melts away the time premium.

I love sideway movements.  If the market stays stagnant, my retirement plan will work.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2015, 02:15:35 PM
200 more shares of T.

Took a look at preferred stocks.  The higher yields are heavily dominated by energy companies.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 06, 2015, 03:58:02 PM
This etf for dividends looks pretty good. SDIV about 23 bucks. Yield over 6. I think I'll put some of the retirement money there.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 06, 2015, 04:22:23 PM
Since I'm looking at the retirement accounts, I should mention that the best mutual funds in there have been Fidelity New Millennium and American Century Midcap Value fund. Earning 55% and 59% respectively. Tickers FMILX and ACMVX.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 06, 2015, 06:57:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2015, 02:15:35 PM
200 more shares of T.

Took a look at preferred stocks.  The higher yields are heavily dominated by energy companies.  :ph34r:

I really hate the American pricing system.  Each share is so expensive.  A share of T costs US$33-34 or so.  The price per share is usually quite high. 

In HK, the price of the blue chip stocks is usually between HK$1-100, or US$0.2-US$15.  The mainland Chinese banks for example are usually priced at below US$1 per share.  ICBC, the bank with the higest capitalisation, is priced at around US$0.7 per share. 

What this means in practice is that I can yell "I just bought TEN THOUSAND shares of ICBC" rather than "I just bought two hundred shares of T".  See, the former is much more bombastic and cool  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2015, 06:59:31 PM
I used to own FIFTEEN THOUSAND shares of a bullshit Canadian penny stock, but then I sold TEN THOUSAND shares and only have FIVE THOUSAND left.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 06, 2015, 07:01:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2015, 06:59:31 PM
I used to own FIFTEEN THOUSAND shares of a bullshit Canadian penny stock, but then I sold TEN THOUSAND shares and only have FIVE THOUSAND left.

:lol:

But ICBC is not a penny stock.  It is probably *the* bank with the highest capitalisation in the world right now.  Or one of the highest. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 06, 2015, 08:16:59 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2015, 06:59:31 PM
I used to own FIFTEEN THOUSAND shares of a bullshit Canadian penny stock, but then I sold TEN THOUSAND shares and only have FIVE THOUSAND left.
I used to own 1.86 million shares of a bullshit penny stock, but then it did a gigantic reverse split.  Now I own 7. :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 06, 2015, 08:42:30 PM
I never could pull the trigger on a penny stock. Instead, I bury silver in the yard.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 06, 2015, 08:55:08 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 06, 2015, 08:42:30 PM
I never could pull the trigger on a penny stock. Instead, I bury silver in the yard.
You're much better off.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Brain on March 07, 2015, 05:21:15 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 06, 2015, 08:42:30 PM
I never could pull the trigger on a penny stock. Instead, I bury silver in the yard.

Your yard must be a regular Potosí by now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 07, 2015, 11:09:05 AM
Quote from: Caliga on March 06, 2015, 08:55:08 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 06, 2015, 08:42:30 PM
I never could pull the trigger on a penny stock. Instead, I bury silver in the yard.
You're much better off.

I have a couple penny stocks that are worse off than being buried...but they're at the point where there is no point in selling them, and one of them (a bio-pharm company) has a glimmer of prospect in turning around in a big way.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 10, 2015, 03:46:11 PM
Market has been taking a beating last couple days.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 10, 2015, 05:49:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 10, 2015, 03:46:11 PM
Market has been taking a beating last couple days.
Yes.  I r sad. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 16, 2015, 02:07:21 PM
Digging out of the hole.  :)

If anyone comes across an article with a reasonable explanation for these periodic 5% downswings, I'd be interested in reading it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 18, 2015, 03:28:56 PM
Losses made good again.  :) :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2015, 01:00:00 PM
I've never seen the market as flat as it is today.  Nothing in my portfolio is budging.  It's like every single investor out there is waiting for some big news.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 24, 2015, 11:25:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2015, 01:00:00 PM
I've never seen the market as flat as it is today.  Nothing in my portfolio is budging.  It's like every single investor out there is waiting for some big news.

I'm too lazy to follow the day-to-day movements.  I just buy it and wait to collect my dividends  :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 25, 2015, 10:10:32 AM
I don't check my stocks as a work thing; it's like watching gold fish.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 25, 2015, 03:51:47 PM
Kraft and Heinz merge. The combined company will be 51% owned by Berkshire Hathaway. Kraft up 40% after hours.

Get ready for synergies, shareholder value.

Employees--
Kraft: 23000
Heinz: 32000

My guess is 5k minimum cuts, maybe 10.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 25, 2015, 03:58:56 PM
Do their product lines overlap that much?  I'll take the under for funsies.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 23, 2015, 09:10:46 AM
Moved a bunch of my mom's money she had sitting in zero interest CDs into AT&T right before the quarterly earning report; jumped a buck this morning. :punk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 23, 2015, 09:17:50 AM
Nice, I have T in my portfolio. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 23, 2015, 11:28:36 AM
Now up $1.41 on the day.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 27, 2015, 02:39:33 PM
Just got an email from E*Trade informing me they are shutting down global markets access.  I have until July something to close out my positions and move my balances.  Commission-free, thankfully.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on April 27, 2015, 09:04:27 PM
I am far too lazy to check the latest stock prices.  I just buy and forget.  I have absolutely no idea what US stocks I own now and what the prices are  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 27, 2015, 10:03:40 PM
How much work does it take you?

I just have to log in to a site, then click the mouse twice to shuffle through my accounts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on April 27, 2015, 10:27:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 27, 2015, 10:03:40 PM
How much work does it take you?

I just have to log in to a site, then click the mouse twice to shuffle through my accounts.

For some reason my bank requires a code from a security device before I can access information on US stocks.  It is a mini-keypad thing.  I need to input a password before the keypad will display a number.  Then I need to input the number into the bank's website to access information on anything related to US stocks.  This is in addition to the typical user name and password of the website.  No such restrictions exist for HK stocks.

An additional issue is that I have bought shares in like 35 individual companies and I tend to forget which is which  :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on April 30, 2015, 04:30:20 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 27, 2015, 02:39:33 PM
Just got an email from E*Trade informing me they are shutting down global markets access.  I have until July something to close out my positions and move my balances.  Commission-free, thankfully.

Yi and others: do you put your stocks in stock brokerage firms and not banks?  What happens if the firm becomes insolvent, for whatever reason?  There have been several stock brokerage failures in Hong Kong and in all the cases, the customers don't get much back.  There is a fund that compensates customers in these situations, but there is a compensation cap of US$20k per person. 

So I only trade with banks, and banks that are too big to fail only. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 30, 2015, 05:38:26 AM
 :hmm: My brokerage firm is TD Ameritrade which is a bank (Toronto Dominion).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 30, 2015, 08:49:36 AM
My brokerage is not holding my money, they're maintaining a record of what stocks I own.

Well, they are holding a little bit of money in my sweep account, but that is an FDIC insured deposit.

In order to get my money they would have to pretend to buy stocks that they didn't, then run off with the money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on April 30, 2015, 08:57:10 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 30, 2015, 08:49:36 AM
My brokerage is not holding my money, they're maintaining a record of what stocks I own.

Well, they are holding a little bit of money in my sweep account, but that is an FDIC insured deposit.

In order to get my money they would have to pretend to buy stocks that they didn't, then run off with the money.

I am not talking about the money.  I mean your stocks.  In HK, the stocks are normally held in "nominee accounts".  I don't directly own my stocks.  They are actually held in my bank's name.  My name doesn't even appear on the company's register or whatever it is called.  The voting rights and dividends first go to the bank, which then passes them to me.  In the event that the bank fails, I won't be able to get my stocks back.  In theory it is possible to get an actual stock certificate and put my name on it, and a lot of people have done that.  The downside is that it takes a few days if I want to sell it.  If I hold it in nominee accounts, I can sell them with a few clicks.

I have no idea how it works in the US.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 30, 2015, 09:08:20 AM
We do it differently. 

For one thing, I'm constantly getting notifications of annual meetings and proxy votes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on April 30, 2015, 09:18:49 AM
I have thought long and hard whether I should trade using a bank, or open an online account with a brokerage firm.  The main advantage of a brokerage firm is lower fees.  Banks charge 0.25% on each trade.  The brokerage firms have lower fees, sometimes below 0.1%.  Brokerage firms also offer more options, like derivatives trading, full service brokers, and are, hmm, more willing to flexibly interpret the rules.  Banks however have much better IT systems and administration.  Their websites really link directly to their data centres, and are reliable.  The brokerage firms often don't really have automated account operations.  Their "websites" are often just fronts, with humans doing the fund transfers and operations behind.  So they tend to screw up and make mistakes.  Deposit 2k and the account shows 1k, that sort of thing. 

But the critical consideration for me is that HSBC is not going to fail.  The HK government won't let a bank that contains more than half of HK's retail deposits fail.  But brokerages do fail, and has happened many times before.  When that happens, the stock owners typically don't get much back. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 30, 2015, 09:35:12 AM
Hey Mono, have you ever thought about using a brokerage instead of a bank?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on April 30, 2015, 09:44:58 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 30, 2015, 09:35:12 AM
Hey Mono, have you ever thought about using a brokerage instead of a bank?

Already answered above.  Actually I did use a brokerage at one point.  The fees were lower, but that's about the only advantage.  Not interested in derivatives or human brokers.  It was a pain transferring funds between the bank and the brokerage, and they often screwed up basic account operations (though they did fix them).  But the biggest issue for me was that I could no longer take it psychologically.  After seeing brokerage after brokerage fail or stole assets from their customers, and countless investors losing their life's savings, ending up protesting on the streets but getting a "buyer beware" response from the government, I decided that the risk with brokerages was too great. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 30, 2015, 09:47:55 AM
I thought you were being a little repetitively redundant.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on April 30, 2015, 05:40:00 PM
Definitely use a brokerage....e-trade actually.

Can you not just enter your stock information/numbers/value into google finance and track it there?   I put all that info into google finance and check that frequently and just hop onto my brokerage website once a month or so to verify. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on April 30, 2015, 07:38:50 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on April 30, 2015, 05:40:00 PM
Definitely use a brokerage....e-trade actually.

Can you not just enter your stock information/numbers/value into google finance and track it there?   I put all that info into google finance and check that frequently and just hop onto my brokerage website once a month or so to verify.

I basically pretend that Google does not exist - I use Yahoo search.  Just checked, Google finance requires registration.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 30, 2015, 08:34:21 PM
Yahoo has a very good finance section too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on April 30, 2015, 09:10:20 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 30, 2015, 08:34:21 PM
Yahoo has a very good finance section too.

I will check it out :hug:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 30, 2015, 09:32:29 PM
I just mash buttons to pick stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on April 30, 2015, 10:23:19 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 30, 2015, 09:32:29 PM
I just mash buttons to pick stocks.

That's probably no different than what the fund managers do anyway. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on May 01, 2015, 07:07:24 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 30, 2015, 08:34:21 PM
Yahoo has a very good finance section too.
Yeah, that's the only thing on Yahoo I use anymore.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 01, 2015, 10:23:14 AM
Enornoc, a company I bought shares in as a long term venture type play, got a 25% bump from an announcement they were partnering with Tesla on battery something something.  :w00t:

That bump was on a price that had been seriously tanking however.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on May 04, 2015, 10:31:16 PM
Ira Sohn Conference Picks And Pans Summary
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2Fuser5%2Fimageroot%2F2015%2F05%2FIra%2520Sohn%25202015_0.jpg&hash=f2af3bcbc4b82268e16749a1f462bcd0c7a7631a)




Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 05, 2015, 09:09:12 AM
Needs a sound board and an excitable bald guy to go with those picks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 05, 2015, 10:08:37 AM
Was giving some thought to buying Chipotle until I learned the share price is  $633.  :blink:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 05, 2015, 11:20:17 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 05, 2015, 10:08:37 AM
Was giving some thought to buying Chipotle until I learned the share price is  $633.  :blink:
Good things cost good money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 05, 2015, 01:58:16 PM
Whenever Piada Italian Street Food does an IPO, I'm jumping in like a mad dog.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on May 05, 2015, 11:26:02 PM
Considering picking up CYS Investments Inc (CYS) if it dips back down a bit more, to around 8.50.  (Div/yield   0.30/13.54,   EPS 2.04)

Big fan of dividend stocks all of a sudden......  Anyone know anything about it or care to take a glance at it? 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 05, 2015, 11:29:46 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on May 05, 2015, 11:26:02 PM
Considering picking up CYS Investments Inc (CYS) if it dips back down a bit more, to around 8.50.

Big fan of dividend stocks all of a sudden......  Anyone know anything about it or care to take a glance at it?

I am a big fan of dividend stocks.  My preference is to buy these stocks and hold them until retirement.  So far I like it.  It is like having an additional worker in our household.  AT&T seems like a good US stock for this purpose.  I also hold Philip Morris, some REIT, etc.  Even if the market dips, I can ignore it and continue to collect dividends. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 06, 2015, 12:09:12 AM
For those kind of dividend stocks, do you take the cash, or automatic reinvesting?

My brokerage account is defaulted to auto-reinvesting, which seems like a sound idea (more stock, no transaction fee)...but I'm wondering if that may be iffy if it's simply a high-dividend stock in an uncertain company vs. a major, established corporation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 06, 2015, 12:12:11 AM
Quote from: Alcibiades on May 05, 2015, 11:26:02 PM
Considering picking up CYS Investments Inc (CYS) if it dips back down a bit more, to around 8.50.  (Div/yield   0.30/13.54,   EPS 2.04)

Big fan of dividend stocks all of a sudden......  Anyone know anything about it or care to take a glance at it?

But on your question, Alci, I am personally kinda wary of these high-dividend stocks that invest in mortgage-back securities (AGNC was another I think we've talked about awhile back), and their long-term prospects.  They give me that "fly-by-night" high risk kinda feeling. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 06, 2015, 01:05:16 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 06, 2015, 12:09:12 AM
For those kind of dividend stocks, do you take the cash, or automatic reinvesting?

My brokerage account is defaulted to auto-reinvesting, which seems like a sound idea (more stock, no transaction fee)...but I'm wondering if that may be iffy if it's simply a high-dividend stock in an uncertain company vs. a major, established corporation.

I take the cash option.  We have lot sizes in Hong Kong.  I cannot just say, I want to buy 298,487 shares of this company.  Each company decides its own lot size.  HSBC has decided, for whatever reason, that its standard lot size in Hong Kong is 400.  So I can only trade multiples of 400 shares.  I *can* buy 100 HSBC shares, but at a price penalty (around 10-20%).  So I don't want the reinvest option because that will give me odd lots, i.e. shares not in the proper lot sizes. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on May 06, 2015, 10:32:34 AM
I was considering just taking the dividends out for cash from CYS, mortgage related stocks make me nervous as well .  BKCC, my other dividend stock, i re-invest.  But that company invests in "middle market companies" not mortgages.

I'm pretty sure someone on here brought BKCC to my attention :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 10:33:52 AM
I'm taking my (currently shitty) AGNC dividend as cash.  That's the only one I'm not reinvesting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 01:27:12 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 01, 2015, 10:23:14 AM
Enornoc, a company I bought shares in as a long term venture type play, got a 25% bump from an announcement they were partnering with Tesla on battery something something.  :w00t:

That bump was on a price that had been seriously tanking however.

And now it's all gone.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on May 06, 2015, 06:24:10 PM
Back in the day I owned stock in a company called Digital Angel.  They made tracking chips you could implant in dogs, kids, etc. in case they were lost or stolen.

One day they were profiled on the Today Show.  The stock skyrocketed so much that if I had sold at market close that day, I would have made $30,000 profit.  Unfortunately, I was very busy at work that day and had no time to check my portfolio, and didn't have any sort of price alerts set up on my account.

A few days later I realized what had happened and checked the stock.  It had dropped so much since then that I was only able to sell it at like 250% profit, which I guess was still good... but if only I hadn't been distracted at work!!!  :ultra:

Needless to say I now have price alerts on my positions. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 06, 2015, 07:19:47 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on May 06, 2015, 10:32:34 AM
I was considering just taking the dividends out for cash from CYS, mortgage related stocks make me nervous as well .  BKCC, my other dividend stock, i re-invest.  But that company invests in "middle market companies" not mortgages.

I'm pretty sure someone on here brought BKCC to my attention :hmm:

Someone did.  I put a sizable amount into BKCC as well.

I'd consider some of those high-dividend mortgage stocks for the cash dividend, but my crappy USAA brokerage account seems to default to re-invest everything, and there is no easy way to change that.  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on May 06, 2015, 07:25:52 PM
Yeah, I use USAA to track my accounts like I used to use Mint for....that's about all I use their website for now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 06, 2015, 07:34:05 PM
Quote from: Caliga on May 06, 2015, 06:24:10 PM
Back in the day I owned stock in a company called Digital Angel.  They made tracking chips you could implant in dogs, kids, etc. in case they were lost or stolen.

One day they were profiled on the Today Show.  The stock skyrocketed so much that if I had sold at market close that day, I would have made $30,000 profit.  Unfortunately, I was very busy at work that day and had no time to check my portfolio, and didn't have any sort of price alerts set up on my account.

A few days later I realized what had happened and checked the stock.  It had dropped so much since then that I was only able to sell it at like 250% profit, which I guess was still good... but if only I hadn't been distracted at work!!!  :ultra:

Needless to say I now have price alerts on my positions. :)

Generally speaking, I find that the volatility of individual US stocks is much greater than HK stocks.  In HK, a 10% swing is gigantic.  8% is skyrocketed.  A theory I have read is that HK stocks generally have stable majority shareholders, be it rich families or the communist party.  Here, majority share-owning really does mean 50.1%.  Only a small portion of the shares are in the hands of hedge fund managers and retail investors, so volatility is much smaller.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 07:36:36 PM
The conventional wisdom is that the smaller the float, the higher the volatility.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 06, 2015, 08:15:42 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on May 06, 2015, 07:25:52 PM
Yeah, I use USAA to track my accounts like I used to use Mint for....that's about all I use their website for now.

Their commissions are pretty good though.  Who do you use for trading?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 06, 2015, 08:46:02 PM
I'm slowly shifting from bonds to stocks.  The split used to be 5:5.  Now it is more like 6:4 in favour of stocks.  Planning to go 7:3.  The problem with bonds is that they are difficult to sell without significant transactions costs.  So generally I can only wait until they mature. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 08:51:34 PM
How much ChiCom stock do you own Mono?  Read in The Economist that the Shanghai index doubled in the last 12 months.

At some point Beijing will need to figure out a way for its citizens to have reasonable investment options.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 06, 2015, 08:57:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 08:51:34 PM
How much ChiCom stock do you own Mono?  Read in The Economist that the Shanghai index doubled in the last 12 months.

At some point Beijing will need to figure out a way for its citizens to have reasonable investment options.

I am inherently suspicious of state-owned Chinese companies, so I don't own enough of them.  A rough estimate is around 15% of total portfolio.  But a lot of HK based companies have lots of business ties in China.  So.

What do you mean about reasonable investment options?  Everybody can trade stocks on the mainland.  It is also not that difficult for mainlanders to open accounts in HK and buy international stuff.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 09:01:44 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 06, 2015, 08:57:38 PM
What do you mean about reasonable investment options?  Everybody can trade stocks on the mainland.  It is also not that difficult for mainlanders to open accounts in HK and buy international stuff.

Well, they have a ridiculous real estate bubble, dodgy public bonds, and a stock market filled with crooks.

I didn't know they could move their money overseas that easily.  It's a wonder everyone doesn't do that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 06, 2015, 09:05:26 PM
It's been in the local news for hometown that quite a number of Chinese are coming in and buying high-end homes (note, these are $800,000 and up kinda homes) for cash.  My parents could probably make out like bandits if they were of the mind to downsize and move.

And my old elementary school's student body is majority Asian these days (66% to 23% white).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 06, 2015, 09:08:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2015, 09:01:44 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 06, 2015, 08:57:38 PM
What do you mean about reasonable investment options?  Everybody can trade stocks on the mainland.  It is also not that difficult for mainlanders to open accounts in HK and buy international stuff.

Well, they have a ridiculous real estate bubble, dodgy public bonds, and a stock market filled with crooks.

I didn't know they could move their money overseas that easily.  It's a wonder everyone doesn't do that.

China has a fast growing economy.  That's where opportunities are, so that's where people and money go (and stay).  You are right about the dodgy stuff, so that's why most people have one foot elsewhere as insurance.  There is a reason why foreign passports are so coverted.  If you want low risk, low return, stability etc, you put money elsewhere.  For high risk, high return, you invest in China. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 06, 2015, 09:21:07 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 06, 2015, 09:05:26 PM
It's been in the local news for hometown that quite a number of Chinese are coming in and buying high-end homes (note, these are $800,000 and up kinda homes) for cash.  My parents could probably make out like bandits if they were of the mind to downsize and move.

And my old elementary school's student body is majority Asian these days (66% to 23% white).

The thing with China is that you can't be a successful businessman without having lots of ties with officials.  That means there is a considerable chance that when these officials fall, the businessmen fall too.  Falling here doesn't just mean losing their fortunes.  It means death, or life imprisonment.  For their entire families.  So they all want backdoors and safe havens for family.  The kids, wives and concubines stay in safe places; the men make money in China. 

That, and the fact that the west offers a nice life for those who don't need to find work.  There is blue sky, clean air, reliable hospitals, and the kids aren't subject to 20+ years of suffering in the education system. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 11, 2015, 10:54:37 PM
For some reason, my stock-based mutual funds always seem to go in the opposite directions of the major stock indices. :hmm:

Edit:  Nevermind...it's just that on the USAA website, it says one fund was up 1.26% on the day, even though Google says it was down.  But the closing share price's both match.   :wacko:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 12, 2015, 12:52:42 PM
So AT&T is going to buy DirecTV for $49 billion.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 13, 2015, 04:32:12 AM
 :lol: @ Jim Cramer wearing his Apple watch alongside his really very nice Breitling.

Sorry, but Apple isn't Breitling. If you're on a date with a girl, she's gonna remember the watch you had on. Breitling is a guaranteed winner. Omega, Tag Hauer, or Baume & Mercier, also gonna impress. (Also your shoes. Don't forget the shoes.)

Apple? It says something, but what...

I'm a douche?

Trendy foody soft footed poodle walker?

I don't know.

Apple is gonna score once again on a bad product though because shitty people are attracted to the smell of shit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 13, 2015, 04:46:27 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 13, 2015, 04:32:12 AM
:lol: @ Jim Cramer wearing his Apple watch alongside his really very nice Breitling.

Sorry, but Apple isn't Breitling. If you're on a date with a girl, she's gonna remember the watch you had on. Breitling is a guaranteed winner. Omega, Tag Hauer, or Baume & Mercier, also gonna impress. (Also your shoes. Don't forget the shoes.)

Apple? It says something, but what...

I'm a douche?

Trendy foody soft footed poodle walker?

I don't know.

Apple is gonna score once again on a bad product though because shitty people are attracted to the smell of shit.

I don't have a watch  :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 13, 2015, 11:07:40 AM
Just bought me some Poland.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on May 13, 2015, 11:12:02 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 13, 2015, 04:32:12 AM
:lol: @ Jim Cramer wearing his Apple watch alongside his really very nice Breitling.
I'm sure he's been paid to wear one, though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 13, 2015, 02:37:36 PM
That and he's got a major boner for their stock.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 22, 2015, 01:49:03 PM
I have found sometimes that going back at looking at stocks I have held in the past (that I had sold for a small, tidy profit at the time, and are now worth even far more if I had held on to them), is a lot like looking back at past relationships.

So much lost potential.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 22, 2015, 03:21:25 PM
Do you keep a written record of every stock you sold and the price you sold it at?

Kind of obsessive sounding.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 22, 2015, 03:37:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 22, 2015, 03:21:25 PM
Do you keep a written record of every stock you sold and the price you sold it at?

Kind of obsessive sounding.

No.  I was just going through some of my older brokerage statements (mainly to try and look at overall returns for some of my long-term stuff), and saw an old stock I had, and was like "I wonder how that is doing now?  Ah shit".

Basically just like a random Facebook stalking of a person one used to know.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 23, 2015, 03:42:57 PM
Mono, can you explain what is going down with the HK and Shenzhen exchanges? I've heard they are merging and a bunch of the rules will change.

I'm thinking of shorting something like CNXT or some other ETF that's as close as I can get to focusing solely on the Shenzhen stocks. I don't know what Hong Kong getting into the mix will do to that though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 25, 2015, 02:12:28 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 23, 2015, 03:42:57 PM
Mono, can you explain what is going down with the HK and Shenzhen exchanges? I've heard they are merging and a bunch of the rules will change.

I'm thinking of shorting something like CNXT or some other ETF that's as close as I can get to focusing solely on the Shenzhen stocks. I don't know what Hong Kong getting into the mix will do to that though.

No, they are not merging.  I think it is like what has already happened between the Shanghai and HK exchanges.  Basically, the agreement allows me, a HK resident, to buy shares in the Shanghai exchange directly.  No need to open an account with a Shanghai broker.  I just log on to my existing bank account, and there is an option to pick any company listed on the Shanghai stock exchange to buy it.  Of course, it goes both ways and Shanghainese people can also buy HK shares.  I think they are now trying to expand the agreement to also cover Shenzhen. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 04, 2015, 01:22:51 PM
Looks like I'm frontrunning Bill Gross (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/06/04/bill-grosss-next-short-shenzhen/) on Shenzhen.

At the very least I'd stay out of China right now. Valuations are nuts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 04, 2015, 02:12:52 PM
Totally nuts.  I'm beginning to think that stuff about Chinese being good with money is BS.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on June 04, 2015, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 04, 2015, 02:12:52 PM
Totally nuts.  I'm beginning to think that stuff about Chinese being good with money is BS.

Who said that Chinese are good with money?   :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 04, 2015, 04:17:13 PM
You want names?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on June 04, 2015, 05:20:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 04, 2015, 04:17:13 PM
You want names?

I always want names.  I don't think I have a category that titled "People who think the Chinese are good with money".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on June 04, 2015, 09:43:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 04, 2015, 04:17:13 PM
You want names?

Yeah, why not?  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 05, 2015, 07:14:37 AM
Bill, Frank, Jane.

It is commonly acknowledged, particularly in the context of discussing the Chinese diaspora, that Chinese possess good business acumen (perhaps not identical to being good with money, but close).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 05, 2015, 12:29:57 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 04, 2015, 01:22:51 PM
Looks like I'm frontrunning Bill Gross (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/06/04/bill-grosss-next-short-shenzhen/) on Shenzhen.

At the very least I'd stay out of China right now. Valuations are nuts.

What kinds of companies are listed?  How are their earnings calculated and reported?  What is the level of float?  Who is buying and selling on the exchange and what kinds of information do they have?  What drives listings?

There are a ton of questions that I would need answered before taking a position long or short. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 05, 2015, 01:41:47 PM
I've been looking up the companies listed in the etf I mentioned (CNXT). The results are hilarious.

Here's the top ten:

Quote
Top 10 Holdings
Company    YTD Return    % of Assets
* East Money Information Co Ltd    --    4.05%    P/E 944
* Suning Commerce Group Co Ltd    --    3.69%    P/E 166
* Hangzhou Hik-Vision Digital Technology Co Ltd    --    2.93%    P/E 36
* Leshi Internet Information & Technology Corp Beijing    --    2.63%  P/E 384 
* Siasun Robot & Automation Co Ltd    --    2.44%  P/E 238
* Jiangsu Kangde Xin Composite Material Co Ltd    --    2.37%  P/E 47
* Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd    --    2.30%   P/E 209
* Wonders Information Co Ltd    --    2.21%    P/E 318
* Iflytek Co Ltd    --    2.05%    P/E 164
* Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd    --    1.76%   P/E 22


Only one of those is priced rationally.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 05, 2015, 01:43:26 PM
To be fair, P/E ratios can be misleading.  They go to infinity when the company is not making any money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 10:05:38 AM
I picked one of those at random - Siasun Robot.  As it happens it was down 10% in the most recent trading day, so perhaps the bubble story is confirmed.  Maybe.

Looking at their accounts: gross profit, net income, EBITDA - whatever measure you use, has tripled into the past 4 years.

I know virtually nothing about this company.  They make industrial robots apparently.  Is there a market for that in China?  Yes there is a big one, it is growing, and it is likely to keep growing for quite a while.  Is it possible this domestic company may have an advantage selling to other domestic enterprises that are automating?  It's certainly possible. 

P/e in the 200 range seems high but it is not an immediate obvious certainty that valuation is wrong.    Expensive compared to what?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 10:08:13 AM
Expensive compared to cash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 10:12:40 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 10:08:13 AM
Expensive compared to cash.

Cash earns zero so no.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 10:17:42 AM
Stock prices will crash so yes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 10:43:49 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 10:17:42 AM
Stock prices will crash so yes.

Begs the question.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 10:49:26 AM
Fair enough.  As long as  the best possible yield a Chinese investor can get is 0.5% (nominal), then 200 PE is rational.

However, 9% of total purchases are bought on margin, I'm assuming at cost higher than 0.5%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 10:57:20 AM
Chinese "investors" are doing things like buying vintage wine and artworks or plowing money into an obviously overheated RE market or un-backed "trust" products for lack of useful investment outlets  . . .

Comparatively speaking a company that triples profits in 4 years could look attractive.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 11:01:04 AM
I don't understand how you can say on the one hand that the RE market is overheated but then defend these insane stock valuations.  Seems to me all your arguments about lack of reasonable investment opportunities could be used to defend RE prices.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 11:04:50 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 11:01:04 AM
Seems to me all your arguments about lack of reasonable investment opportunities could be used to defend RE prices.

Yes they could.
And the RE prices may be defensible, at least in the high tier cities. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 08, 2015, 11:10:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 10:49:26 AM
Fair enough.  As long as  the best possible yield a Chinese investor can get is 0.5% (nominal), then 200 PE is rational.
It's only rational if investors are risk-seeking, and not risk averse as is commonly assumed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 12:21:46 PM
It's an easy mistake to fall into to look at China through the prism of a western capitalist economy.  China has banks, industrial enterprises, tech companies, consumer companies, it has stocks and bonds, and exchanges where securities are bought and sold.  It looks like a regular western economy.  But these things don't work the same way or have the same function they have in the West.  If it becomes deemed that there is a state or party interest that Company X have more sales or profits or that its stock sell for price Y that can be made to happen, and the fact that Bill Gross insists it is grossly mis-valued on the fundamentals means exactly nothing. 

Keep in mind most of the companies listed in Shenzhen are state owned or controlled . . . as are their main customers and suppliers, as are the local banks that likely own or control most of the corporate securities.

This does not mean I think these are "buys".   On the contrary I think anyone without very deep insight into this market is taking huge risks by taking any position.,
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 12:25:02 PM
I am not aware of any examples of the state engineering public demand for this or that company.  Also if they are able to engineer profitability with the wave of a hand it's puzzling why so many SOEs are losing money.

I think it's more reasonable to say the stat can kill a company, but not make one successful.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 08, 2015, 12:25:55 PM
Yeah, that's a good point.  If it's possible to earn excessive profits in a market, then you better not enter that market unless you know how to get those excessive profits.  Otherwise you'll be the one on whose back excessive profits are being made.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 12:47:19 PM
Yi the entire banking system was on the verge of insolvency in the early half of last decade; the central authorities simply recapitalized the banks.  At one point ICBC had an NPL ratio around 20%.  Now they are the largest bank in the world by market cap.  So yes the state can make success if it really wants to.

One question I would ask w/r/t MIMs top 10 list is: what is the free float? 
And who owns/controls it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 12:49:04 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 12:47:19 PM
Yi the entire banking system was on the verge of insolvency in the early half of last decade; the central authorities simply recapitalized the banks.  At one point ICBC had an NPL ratio around 20%.  Now they are the largest bank in the world by market cap.  So yes the state can make success if it really wants to.

I thought we were talking about engineering profitability.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on June 08, 2015, 12:51:37 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 12:47:19 PM
Yi the entire banking system was on the verge of insolvency in the early half of last decade; the central authorities simply recapitalized the banks.  At one point ICBC had an NPL ratio around 20%.  Now they are the largest bank in the world by market cap.  So yes the state can make success if it really wants to.

One question I would ask w/r/t MIMs top 10 list is: what is the free float? 
And who owns/controls it?

I was curious why you were worried about the insolvency of the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, given that it's a Crown Corporation... :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 08, 2015, 01:05:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2015, 12:49:04 PM
I thought we were talking about engineering profitability.

Well ICBC turned a profit of RMB 275 billion  last year; I'll leave it open as to what extent the state had influence on that result.

But what we are really talking about are stock prices and how they are determined.
The question I asked - half rhetorically - is about the ownership and extent of free float - half rhetorically because I can't figure it out and suspect it may be unknown, half not because maybe some one does.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 10, 2015, 03:32:32 PM
Just heard on CNBC that Elon Must said at the Tesla shareholder meeting he expects Tesla to grow by 50% a year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 10, 2015, 03:54:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 10, 2015, 03:32:32 PM
Just heard on CNBC that Elon Must said at the Tesla shareholder meeting he expects Tesla to grow by 50% a year.
:hmm: For how many years?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 10, 2015, 03:55:32 PM
Something like "for a while."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 10, 2015, 04:17:21 PM
Also, apparently one of the shareholders inquired about the possibility of building a vegan Tesla.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on June 10, 2015, 05:57:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 10, 2015, 03:32:32 PM
Just heard on CNBC that Elon Must said at the Tesla shareholder meeting he expects Tesla to grow by 50% a year.
Well what else is he gonna say? :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on June 10, 2015, 06:19:21 PM
Then Cramer farted.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on June 11, 2015, 06:00:27 AM
New HSBC bonds are now available for sale.  Yield is 4.5%.  Minimum investment is very accessible at only US$2k.  The only problem is that the maturity date is 2042 :bleeding:

Should I take the plunge?  :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on June 11, 2015, 08:35:09 AM
The market is giving me the queasies now. The bubble is gonna pop.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Brain on June 11, 2015, 08:40:33 AM
Quiet you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 11, 2015, 08:50:58 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 11, 2015, 06:00:27 AM
New HSBC bonds are now available for sale.  Yield is 4.5%.  Minimum investment is very accessible at only US$2k.  The only problem is that the maturity date is 2042 :bleeding:

Should I take the plunge?  :unsure:

No.  I wouldn't want to be stuck with QE interest rates when the Fed starts to raise rates.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 15, 2015, 08:51:46 PM
Quote
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Senior executives of listed firms in China have stepped up the pace at which they are selling shares in their own companies, suggesting they may have doubts about whether their stock prices can go much higher.

In May company insiders - senior executives or their relatives - sold a combined 1.68 billion shares, a tripling from April, and much more than in each of the previous months of this year, according to data compiled by Reuters.

Share sales by senior managers are sometimes taken as a worrying sign by investors, as they can indicate people who know a company best think its stock price is too high.

"It's a vote of confidence," said Hong Hao, chief strategist at Bank of Communications International.

"It's evidence that stock prices are high".

However, Hong added he expects these sales will only slow, not stop, stock price rises, in what's become a frenzied market.

China's benchmark stock indexes have surged nearly 150 percent over the past year, beating the rest of the world's major indexes, even as the country's economy slows.

Shenzhen's start-up board ChiNext has more than tripled in the last 12 months and is now trading at earning multiples of 140, meaning at the current level of profitability, investors need to wait 140 years to recoup their investments.

Some shareholders are getting impatient.

Between June 1 and June 3, Jia Yueting, Chairman and president of Leshi, sold 35 million shares in the internet firm he founded, making 2.5 billion yuan ($402.85 million).

Leshi said on May 25 that Jia plans in total to sell up to 148 million shares over the next six months or 8 percent of the company, though he will remain the biggest shareholder after that with a 36.85 percent holding.

Leshi said that Jia will lend the proceeds of the sale to the company interest free. A spokeswoman declined to say whether the selling was prodded by a view that share prices are too high.

Cashing out

It's not just company management who are selling; major cornerstone investors, freed from mandated lock-up periods, are also reducing their stakes.

Cornerstone stakeholders slashed 109 billion yuan worth of China-listed shares in May, double the amount sold during the previous month, according to data from Southwest Securities.

That doesn't include 3.5 billion yuan worth of banking shares dumped by sovereign investment firm Central Huijin on May 26.

The reduction by Huijin, in its holdings in China Construction Bank (CCB) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), represents a reversal of strategy by the state investor.

Huijin had been buying mainland-listed banking shares since the global finiancial crisis in 2008, in an apparent support to their share prices.

Huijin confirmed in statement that it has sold the shares but did not provide its reasons for doing so.

A similar trend was captured by an index compiled by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities that tracks major shareholders' trading activities.

The index surged over the past month, to a record high, meaning major shareholders are reducing holdings at unprecedented levels.

"It a barometer of how people in the real economy view stock valuations," said Liu Junwei, analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan.

"It means at the current level, a correction is very likely".


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2015, 10:07:43 AM
Some good news about T must have come out today or last night.  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 29, 2015, 05:46:29 PM
Remember my post from May 23rd?

https://www.google.com/search?q=cnxt&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on June 29, 2015, 07:34:56 PM
How much would you charge to manage my finances?  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on June 29, 2015, 08:12:22 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 29, 2015, 07:34:56 PM
How much would you charge to manage my finances?  :P

Don't trust anyone to manage your finances :contract:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 30, 2015, 01:58:31 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 29, 2015, 08:12:22 PM
Don't trust anyone to manage your finances :contract:

Anyone who charges you has a conflict. I wouldn't do it, and I don't have the proper license to do it. Some of my family members have put small trading accounts in my care. Just by giving me the logins.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 30, 2015, 03:12:18 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 30, 2015, 01:58:31 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 29, 2015, 08:12:22 PM
Don't trust anyone to manage your finances :contract:

Anyone who charges you has a conflict. I wouldn't do it, and I don't have the proper license to do it. Some of my family members have put small trading accounts in my care. Just by giving me the logins.
How much do you want for the logins?  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 30, 2015, 03:15:17 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 30, 2015, 01:58:31 PM
Anyone who charges you has a conflict.

That's not necessarily true.  Problems arise when broker/advisers are being paid sales commissions or when their brokerage house is giving them a churn commission.  Conflict of interest is not inherent to the job.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on June 30, 2015, 03:19:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 30, 2015, 03:15:17 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 30, 2015, 01:58:31 PM
Anyone who charges you has a conflict.

That's not necessarily true.  Problems arise when broker/advisers are being paid sales commissions or when their brokerage house is giving them a churn commission.  Conflict of interest is not inherent to the job.

But in reality, most brokers are on the sales commissions model.  So their top priority is to sell me life insurance policies, with absolutely no interest to learn if I have children or not  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 30, 2015, 03:20:11 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 30, 2015, 03:19:17 PM
But in reality, most brokers are on the sales commissions model.  So their top priority is to sell me life insurance policies, with absolutely no interest to learn if I have children or not  :lol:

How many data points are you basing this conclusion on Mono? :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on June 30, 2015, 03:26:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 30, 2015, 03:20:11 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 30, 2015, 03:19:17 PM
But in reality, most brokers are on the sales commissions model.  So their top priority is to sell me life insurance policies, with absolutely no interest to learn if I have children or not  :lol:

How many data points are you basing this conclusion on Mono? :)

My banks call me periodically over the years.  They always start with life insurance.  If that fails, they sell mutual funds, followed by derivatives.  I have yet to meet anybody who has shown *any* interest in my family situation or financial goals  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 30, 2015, 03:29:11 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 30, 2015, 03:26:09 PM
My banks call me periodically over the years.  They always start with life insurance.  If that fails, they sell mutual funds, followed by derivatives.  I have yet to meet anybody who has shown *any* interest in my family situation or financial goals  :lol:

In Korea this is called "North question, south answer."

So, two?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on June 30, 2015, 03:33:49 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 30, 2015, 03:29:11 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on June 30, 2015, 03:26:09 PM
My banks call me periodically over the years.  They always start with life insurance.  If that fails, they sell mutual funds, followed by derivatives.  I have yet to meet anybody who has shown *any* interest in my family situation or financial goals  :lol:

In Korea this is called "North question, south answer."

So, two?

A lot more than two.  I have accounts in two major banks, and their staff turnover is very high.  The finance people, our best people, are always looking for better pay.  They give me a call when a new guy comes, and a new guy comes every few months.  I don't call them but they call me. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on July 06, 2015, 02:25:42 AM
London stock exchange seems unfazed by the Greek no. I'm actually up by £41..... :lol:.................a pleasant surprise.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2015, 02:27:22 AM
Hookers and blow on Tricky.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on July 06, 2015, 02:34:38 AM
I am considering buying more European stocks.  Should I?  :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Martinus on July 06, 2015, 02:35:14 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 06, 2015, 02:34:38 AM
I am considering buying more European stocks.  Should I?  :unsure:

Yes. :shifty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on July 06, 2015, 03:23:18 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 06, 2015, 02:27:22 AM
Hookers and blow on Tricky.

Ah......I'm a few hundred down now, perhaps a pint of lager and a bag of crisps will do?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: frunk on July 06, 2015, 09:40:28 AM
I'm guessing there's more money running away from China than from Greece.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on July 15, 2015, 10:29:49 PM
More US$ have magically appeared in my account without me doing anything.  I hate it when the bank just says "corporate event: US$xxx deposited".  Hello, I'd at least like to know which company or bond paid dividend/interest. 

So, the time has come when I must pick another stock.  Looking at AT&T (6% dividend yield), Chevron (4.5%), Proctor & Gamble (3.2%), or Coca-cola (3.2%).  I already have some AT&T, so it may not be a good idea to put everything there. 

Thoughts?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on July 16, 2015, 12:30:08 AM
A couple others that I have and like so far...

ARI
BKCC (I think was mentioned here already)
RRD (kinda meh price wise, but the dividend has been pretty consistent long term)

And eyeing NMM for my next acquisition.

But on your proposals, I am guessing you favor big, well-known blue chips.  :P

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on July 16, 2015, 01:27:31 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 16, 2015, 12:30:08 AM


But on your proposals, I am guessing you favor big, well-known blue chips.  :P

I am too lazy to follow the movements of the stocks that I own, and I am easily frightened  :blush:  So I want to buy stocks that I am reasonably confident will be there a few years later. 

Yeah, that means I would have bought stuff like Enron, or Lehman without bothering to check their prices.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 16, 2015, 06:37:07 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 15, 2015, 10:29:49 PM
Thoughts?

I've given some thought to Century Link.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on July 16, 2015, 08:10:52 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 16, 2015, 06:37:07 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on July 15, 2015, 10:29:49 PM
Thoughts?

I've given some thought to Century Link.

Ok, I'll do it tonight.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on July 23, 2015, 03:56:16 PM
Amazon is up $85 after the close on their earnings release.  :huh:


Edit: Apparently they actually made money this quarter.  :P

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on July 23, 2015, 08:01:13 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on July 23, 2015, 03:56:16 PM
Amazon is up $85 after the close on their earnings release.  :huh:


Edit: Apparently they actually made money this quarter.  :P

Amazon is one of those stocks that I avoid.  I want to invest in companies that want to make money.  With Amazon, I'm not so sure. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 23, 2015, 08:20:08 PM
T has been taking a beating last couple days.

It'll bounce back though.  Always does. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 18, 2015, 01:40:32 PM
I was just thinking a week ago I should pick up some Zulily stock...but didn't pull the trigger on it.  :(

TMUS has been doing pretty well for me though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on August 18, 2015, 11:12:58 PM
So one of my RMB bonds will mature next week.  Frankly I don't have much faith in the value of RMB right now, and I think I am far too concentrated in mainland/HK. 

Consistent with the theme of recent chemical explosions, I am considering buying stocks in Dow chemical or Dupont. 

Also considering Centerpoint Energy, Iron Mountain, Verizon, and Chevron.

This time I will pick two.  Thoughts?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on August 18, 2015, 11:19:00 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on August 18, 2015, 11:12:58 PM
So one of my RMB bonds will mature next week.  Frankly I don't have much faith in the value of RMB right now, and I think I am far too concentrated in mainland/HK. 

Consistent with the theme of recent chemical explosions, I am considering buying stocks in Dow chemical or Dupont. 

Also considering Centerpoint Energy, Iron Mountain, Verizon, and Chevron.

This time I will pick two.  Thoughts?
Chevron (and other oil stocks) near bottom?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 21, 2015, 12:30:15 PM
S&P trying to hold 2000 today. Might not make it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on August 22, 2015, 11:15:33 AM
I decided to bet on oil being oversold and bought stocks 7 minutes before the close at the 52-week low.  Catch falling knives!  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 24, 2015, 11:46:23 AM
Added to my position in DIS this morning. The crash was over almost immediately though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 24, 2015, 02:06:38 PM
Holy fuck.  I'm poor.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 24, 2015, 02:09:57 PM
Yeah, I am in that mode of waffling between panic selling and "should I just ride it out".  :P

Fortunately, I had sold off my major holdings in AAPL and SBUX a couple weeks ago, and mostly have a lot of a dividend-heavy stocks (which still also are getting clobbered", so my inkling is to just let it ride, collect dividends, and hope for recovery.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 24, 2015, 03:04:38 PM
For options expiring this week, the put volume is maybe ten times the calls. And the price spread is pretty big. People are paying up for short-term insurance.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on August 24, 2015, 05:27:11 PM
I've been holding some of the stocks that I own for like 15 years, and I am not going to sell.  I can't remember the number of crashes that I've been through already.  I love crashes.  Every time there is a crash, I buy more. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on August 24, 2015, 06:19:31 PM
I bought some AGNC this morning @ $19.  Ex-dividend date in a few days, and lower U.S. Treasuries = higher book value?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 24, 2015, 08:27:00 PM
Are the analysts saying this is a reaction to China and other international crap?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 24, 2015, 08:46:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 24, 2015, 08:27:00 PM
Are the analysts saying this is a reaction to China and other international crap?

They're blaming China, yes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on August 24, 2015, 09:05:30 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 24, 2015, 08:27:00 PM
Are the analysts saying this is a reaction to China and other international crap?

China, yes.  For the past two decades, that China is growing at a quick pace can be regarded as a fundamental economic truth.  But now, the inevitable slowdown happens.  The question is, is this part of a normal business cycle, or has China hit a ceiling without political reforms? 

China's slowdown is very obvious to us living in HK.  The number of mainland tourists has decreased, and they spend less.  The retail scene is ugly.  To let signs everywhere.  Restaurants are far less busy.  Everybody are doing discount sales.  The luxury brands are retreating, their flagship stores closing.  When I go to China, the hotels are empty.  Macau (basically China's Las Vegas) is now having -20% GDP growth.  No, the zero is not a typo. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 24, 2015, 09:08:24 PM
Communist China hiccups and capital markets shudder in fear. What has the capitalist west come to?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 25, 2015, 12:40:04 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 24, 2015, 09:08:24 PM
Communist China hiccups and capital markets shudder in fear. What has the capitalist west come to?

Come to do business in China.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Brain on August 25, 2015, 12:42:04 PM
A round-eyed man can never truly understand China.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: KRonn on August 26, 2015, 09:56:39 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on August 24, 2015, 09:05:30 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 24, 2015, 08:27:00 PM
Are the analysts saying this is a reaction to China and other international crap?

China, yes.  For the past two decades, that China is growing at a quick pace can be regarded as a fundamental economic truth.  But now, the inevitable slowdown happens.  The question is, is this part of a normal business cycle, or has China hit a ceiling without political reforms? 

China's slowdown is very obvious to us living in HK.  The number of mainland tourists has decreased, and they spend less.  The retail scene is ugly.  To let signs everywhere.  Restaurants are far less busy.  Everybody are doing discount sales.  The luxury brands are retreating, their flagship stores closing.  When I go to China, the hotels are empty.  Macau (basically China's Las Vegas) is now having -20% GDP growth.  No, the zero is not a typo.

Wow, looks pretty tough going right now. Is there talk of a recession looming? I don't think anyone knows yet if this is long term or a short hit, but from the little I've seen reported it does seem that the Chinese government has been helping prop up the economy quite significantly and that all is starting to implode a bit. Kind of like the US Treasury printing money that helps prop up the stock market and any news of the Feds increasing interest rates even a little sends some waves through the market. And I think talk of such increases, possibly in a month or so, have added to fears over the Chinese stock market hits and added to the US market's woes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on August 26, 2015, 09:59:45 AM
Quote from: KRonn on August 26, 2015, 09:56:39 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on August 24, 2015, 09:05:30 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 24, 2015, 08:27:00 PM
Are the analysts saying this is a reaction to China and other international crap?

China, yes.  For the past two decades, that China is growing at a quick pace can be regarded as a fundamental economic truth.  But now, the inevitable slowdown happens.  The question is, is this part of a normal business cycle, or has China hit a ceiling without political reforms? 

China's slowdown is very obvious to us living in HK.  The number of mainland tourists has decreased, and they spend less.  The retail scene is ugly.  To let signs everywhere.  Restaurants are far less busy.  Everybody are doing discount sales.  The luxury brands are retreating, their flagship stores closing.  When I go to China, the hotels are empty.  Macau (basically China's Las Vegas) is now having -20% GDP growth.  No, the zero is not a typo.

Wow, looks pretty tough going right now. Is there talk of a recession looming? I don't think anyone knows yet if this is long term or a short hit, but from the little I've seen reported it does seem that the Chinese government has been helping prop up the economy quite significantly and that all is starting to implode a bit. Kind of like the US Treasury printing money that helps prop up the stock market and any news of the Feds increasing interest rates even a little sends some waves through the market. And I think talk of such increases, possibly in a month or so, have added to fears over the Chinese stock market hits and added to the US market's woes.

Don't know about you guys, but recession is already upon us.  Now  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 26, 2015, 03:54:27 PM
Some impressive rallies last couple days.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on August 26, 2015, 07:36:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 26, 2015, 03:54:27 PM
Some impressive rallies last couple days.

I hate these.  I am assembling a cash fund to buy low, so I want the stock market to enter free fall.  Pay day for August is coming up  :menace:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on September 01, 2015, 11:16:58 AM
We'll be back there.  :P

Anyway, with Macau down 20 I'm selling short some gaming companies.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 01, 2015, 01:18:17 PM
Rally over.  Mono pleased.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on September 01, 2015, 08:04:27 PM
I closed out my 1-week oil speculation this past Friday for a 17% gain.  Now, I have the cash waiting for another go.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 02, 2015, 12:32:13 AM
Short I assume?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on September 09, 2015, 10:22:25 PM
Beijing State-owned Assets HK Management Company Limited is offering US$ bonds at 4.3% yield.  10 years until maturity. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 09, 2015, 10:31:22 PM
Not yet.  Wait for the Fed to raise rates.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on September 09, 2015, 10:36:19 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 09, 2015, 10:31:22 PM
Not yet.  Wait for the Fed to raise rates.

I've been waiting for, what, 7-8 years now for the US to raise rates.  All I get are delays after delays.  They always have some excuse not to do it.  I imagine that they may say, oh we were REALLY planning to do it, but because China is slowing down we have to reconsider blah blah blah.  I am sick and tired of their [expletives deleted] excuses.  I am glad that I did not wait when I bought the bonds that I own now. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 09, 2015, 10:42:26 PM
OK, don't wait.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on September 09, 2015, 10:51:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 09, 2015, 10:42:26 PM
OK, don't wait.

:lol:

Wanda Properties is offering bonds with 5.6% yield, 9 years to maturity.  Wanda is owned the one of the richest men in China, and is...linked with Jia, an ex-Politburo Standing Committee member and ex-Chairman of the Political Consultative Conference.  Previously that should be considered safe, but the unspoken rule that ex-Politburo Standing Committee members might never be prosecuted, no matter what crimes he might have committed, was broken just a few months ago.  So I am not too sure. 

This probably belongs to the tabloids, but Wanda made international news because they tried to pull down some historical building in Madrid but faced strong political opposition. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 10, 2015, 01:08:15 PM
I thought you were storing up manna to buy into the US dip?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on September 10, 2015, 07:42:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 10, 2015, 01:08:15 PM
I thought you were storing up manna to buy into the US dip?

More like stocking up to buy into the HK dip.  The HK market has dropped 25% from the highs.  That's a much bigger decline than the US one.  But I like to keep my options open.  Checking the bond yields takes 3 minutes. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on October 20, 2015, 05:16:50 AM
Ok, I have received the dividends and interests, and it is time to buy again.

I have Century Tel, General Electric, HCP, Mattel, Philip Morris, AT&T, Royal Dutch Shell, Mid Cap ETF and S&P500 ETF. 

Any recommendations?  I can pick three this time. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 22, 2015, 01:48:31 PM
Fun fact Mono, GE has been a component of the Dow Jones 100 since its inception.

Anyone else own Wally World?  They've been in a death spiral, starting approximately the time it was announced Amazon had a higher market valuation than they did.  I've given back all my gains since I bought in at the trough of the Greatest Recession Evah.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on October 22, 2015, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 22, 2015, 01:48:31 PM
Fun fact Mono, GE has been a component of the Dow Jones 100 since its inception.



I've heard that it is the only company left  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 22, 2015, 05:59:22 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 22, 2015, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 22, 2015, 01:48:31 PM
Fun fact Mono, GE has been a component of the Dow Jones 100 since its inception.



I've heard that it is the only company left  :ph34r:
It's very hard to track corporations like that.  They're not human beings that are either alive or dead, they mutate continuously.  A lot of the old companies have morphed one way or another into other entities.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 23, 2015, 01:24:09 AM
A lot of oil companies are going very cheap right now, meanwhile Saudi Arabia looks shaky, I think that the oil majors are a good long term investment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on October 23, 2015, 01:51:04 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on October 23, 2015, 01:24:09 AM
A lot of oil companies are going very cheap right now, meanwhile Saudi Arabia looks shaky, I think that the oil majors are a good long term investment.

Ok, Chevron then.  Will also double down on CNOOC in my main HK effort. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 23, 2015, 02:01:00 AM
My theory is that either the oil price will recover and oil shares will rise, or that the oil price will not recover leading to political turmoil in producer states and an increase in the oil price. Meanwhile the yields on Shell and BP are about 7%. A pity that cashflow is a bit weak in the Hakluyt household right now, though I did buy £10k of RDSB at £15-something with my personal cash a couple of weeks back  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 27, 2015, 05:31:44 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on October 23, 2015, 02:01:00 AM
My theory is that either the oil price will recover and oil shares will rise, or that the oil price will not recover leading to political turmoil in producer states and an increase in the oil price. Meanwhile the yields on Shell and BP are about 7%. A pity that cashflow is a bit weak in the Hakluyt household right now, though I did buy £10k of RDSB at £15-something with my personal cash a couple of weeks back  :cool:

You forgot one thing. Leverage risk causing consolidation. Drillers and producers in heavy debt not making the cash flow anymore will keep going broke for a while, allowing their assets to be bought up by the survivors. That's going to mean better market share for those left standing, which will be the big guys with deep pockets. Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Total and BP aren't going to go bust. They are going to end up owning the assets of people like Wildcat Drilling Inc.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 27, 2015, 05:35:43 PM
Shell just had to write off $7 billion (billion with a b) for Arctic drilling.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 29, 2015, 03:47:45 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 27, 2015, 05:35:43 PM
Shell just had to write off $7 billion (billion with a b) for Arctic drilling.

Yes, in a way it is perhaps surprising how well the share price holds up. But they are maintaining the dividend and have the "deep pockets" that MIM mentions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Brain on October 29, 2015, 07:09:42 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 22, 2015, 05:59:22 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 22, 2015, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 22, 2015, 01:48:31 PM
Fun fact Mono, GE has been a component of the Dow Jones 100 since its inception.



I've heard that it is the only company left  :ph34r:
It's very hard to track corporations like that.  They're not human beings that are either alive or dead, they mutate continuously.  A lot of the old companies have morphed one way or another into other entities.

Don't you have organization numbers in America?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on October 29, 2015, 01:34:12 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 20, 2015, 05:16:50 AM
Ok, I have received the dividends and interests, and it is time to buy again.

I have Century Tel, General Electric, HCP, Mattel, Philip Morris, AT&T, Royal Dutch Shell, Mid Cap ETF and S&P500 ETF. 

Any recommendations?  I can pick three this time.

How about some highly speculative biotech or 3D printing startups?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 29, 2015, 05:13:02 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on October 29, 2015, 01:34:12 PM
How about some highly speculative biotech or 3D printing startups?

By the time they have an IPO they're no longer so speculative.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 29, 2015, 05:22:31 PM
Yeah, if you want to try putting some money in VC try AngelList.


Be very careful.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on October 29, 2015, 07:49:36 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on October 29, 2015, 01:34:12 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 20, 2015, 05:16:50 AM
Ok, I have received the dividends and interests, and it is time to buy again.

I have Century Tel, General Electric, HCP, Mattel, Philip Morris, AT&T, Royal Dutch Shell, Mid Cap ETF and S&P500 ETF. 

Any recommendations?  I can pick three this time.

How about some highly speculative biotech or 3D printing startups?

Nah, I am not that type.  I am the AT&T, cash cow, blue chip, dividend queen, buy and forget type. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 29, 2015, 07:52:11 PM
I was thinking about AT&T and their monster dividend and decided it's basically a bet that no new technology will come along to make cell phones obsolete.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on October 30, 2015, 07:04:16 PM
Seems all the bonds with yields above 4% are denominated in RMB now.  But I really don't want to buy much RMB now, with China's economy entering uncertain territory and the end of the long-term appreciation expectation of the currency.  I don't want to risk holding RMB until 2025 or something like that. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 31, 2015, 12:20:11 PM
You could do what it seems like every other Chinese person with savings is doing. Buy houses in California.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on November 09, 2015, 01:07:03 AM
WY is merging up PCL.

I own both.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 09, 2015, 01:27:18 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 09, 2015, 01:07:03 AM
WY is merging up PCL.

I own both.  :)

If you bought WY below 35, keep it forever.  Good enough dividend for the Mono list. 4% or thereabouts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on November 09, 2015, 01:59:47 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 09, 2015, 01:27:18 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 09, 2015, 01:07:03 AM
WY is merging up PCL.

I own both.  :)

If you bought WY below 35, keep it forever.  Good enough dividend for the Mono list. 4% or thereabouts.

Yeah, I had picked it up at about 28 and it's one of my dividend keepers.

And it fits in my pro-Washington state, home field investment bias.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on November 09, 2015, 02:13:26 AM
Actually MiM, I would be curious for your take on my crappy, amateurish invest architecture...

My current set-up is like this...

Vanguard Roth IRA:  I set this up back before I joined the military...has only two investments in it, Vanguards REIT index fund(VGSIX), and Total Market index fund (VTSAX).  I haven't added to, or touched them in about a decade.

USAA Roth IRA: I've been keeping this topped up to the contribution limit.  Right now is about half a mixture of USAA mutual funds (of various types), and then I've been keeping my REIT stocks in there (with dividend reinvestment), for ease-of-tax purposes...because REIT tax issues look like a complicated bitch to me.  Plus a smattering of speculative stock purchases, and penny stock lottery tickets (like a few biotechs).  My biggest REITs in there are the ones that actually own property, and have respectable dividends, but are not those crazy dividend mortgage debt places...currently I have CSG, IRT, and SIR.

Brokerage (the one that is taxed):  Here I keep most of my blue chip stocks, with a strong bias towards good dividends.  Current major holdings are:
- COST
- AAPL
- T
- BKCC
- MAIN
- CTL
- WY (and soon-to-be-former PCL)
- PCAR
- SBUX
- NWL
- PFE

Plus a few other minor positions in some other wildcards (e.g. NMM, which has a rather nice dividend, but has tanked pretty good recently too.  :P)

Though, alas, don't really have the time/skill/knowledge to do anything much fancier than the meat-and-potatoes buying and selling of stock...and my picking strategy is probably not much better than the chimp-throwing-darts-at-a-dartboard method.   :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 16, 2015, 04:03:32 PM
AT&T is up 2.25% today on news that the Sage of Omaha has bought more shares.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on November 16, 2015, 07:57:30 PM
AT&T can suck my dick.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 16, 2015, 08:58:37 PM
Sure it can.  It can do anything.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on November 16, 2015, 09:45:01 PM
As long as it's sucking with good dividends...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on November 16, 2015, 09:45:57 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 16, 2015, 09:45:01 PM
As long as it's sucking with good dividends...

Hear! Hear!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 17, 2015, 07:09:15 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 09, 2015, 02:13:26 AM
Actually MiM, I would be curious for your take on my crappy, amateurish invest architecture...

My current set-up is like this...

Vanguard Roth IRA:  I set this up back before I joined the military...has only two investments in it, Vanguards REIT index fund(VGSIX), and Total Market index fund (VTSAX).  I haven't added to, or touched them in about a decade.

USAA Roth IRA: I've been keeping this topped up to the contribution limit.  Right now is about half a mixture of USAA mutual funds (of various types), and then I've been keeping my REIT stocks in there (with dividend reinvestment), for ease-of-tax purposes...because REIT tax issues look like a complicated bitch to me.  Plus a smattering of speculative stock purchases, and penny stock lottery tickets (like a few biotechs).  My biggest REITs in there are the ones that actually own property, and have respectable dividends, but are not those crazy dividend mortgage debt places...currently I have CSG, IRT, and SIR.

Back to front:
SIR—It's a very diverse REIT. 25% tech, 12% Industrial, 12% retail, the rest other stuff. Great div (over ten), low debt ratio (1.1). They have a high tech percentage. Their list of tenants includes F5 and Amazon. I didn't dig deep enough to see if any of that was actually datacenter space.

IRT—This one is apartments, mostly focused in the SEC states with some others scattered about. Debt ratio is 2.7, all long-term. Dividend nine and change. One thing as you said about "residential" reits is that some manage properties and the others buy mortgages. This is the former type. They own actual non-paper assets. Something like UDF might look more profitable on paper, but their net asset value is going to suffer the whims of the bond market a lot more. Your thinking is solid in my opinion.

CSG—Office REIT.  That's the category, but most of their properties are actually warehouses and distribution centers. I'm very averse to investing in offices in general (I'll explain in a minute*), but this one is interesting. They own SpaceX's HQ too. Debt ratio is low at around 1. Dividend 7. I think it's one of the safest office reits out there tbh and it isn't very expensive. I bet you didn't know you were invested in SpaceX, in a small way.  :P

*One of my theses is that office real estate is not going to be a growth market in our lifetimes. It's not like it's going to crash, but I think economics, politics, technology, competition and the labor market are going to increasingly cause cube farms to go dark over the course of the next couple generations. Not kill commuting entirely, just put significant and persistent downward pressure on that part of the real estate market. I think we'll see a lot of that space converted to living space in the downtown cores. A good counterpoint to this might be getting in some datacenter reits. Most of them are a bit better growth and dividends are kinda similar to high-yielding stocks. Frustratingly, these can be listed under either reit-office or reit-industrial.

Quote
Brokerage (the one that is taxed):  Here I keep most of my blue chip stocks, with a strong bias towards good dividends.  Current major holdings are:
- COST
- AAPL
- T
- BKCC
- MAIN
- CTL
- WY (and soon-to-be-former PCL)
- PCAR
- SBUX
- NWL
- PFE

Plus a few other minor positions in some other wildcards (e.g. NMM, which has a rather nice dividend, but has tanked pretty good recently too.  :P)

PCAR stands out. They've taken a beating, along with Cummins, Volvo, Cat, Navistar. Every one of them is giving gloomy outlooks, and they're all kinda trading together. Look at a chart of any of them vs the S&P and you'll see what I mean. The numbers look good to me, however. Better than the others I just listed.  Very cheap now. It might take a long while to come in, but the dividend is ok.

NMM: Look at that dividend. 17.5% :P I wonder how safe that is. Navios is rare in that group in that they actually have income.

Rubbermaid is not in trouble, even though that's a boring one, IMO. I like MAIN and I also own Blackrock, PFE and T.

Might be a good time to get in a little energy. Chevron is paying almost 5%. I have not yet done so, but I might.

CenturyLink has come in a lot too. Some numbers on them:
INCOME STATEMENT
Q3 FY15 Q3 FY14
Net Sales ($mil) 4,554.00 4,514.00
EBITDA ($mil) 1,782.00 1,746.00
EBIT ($mil) 734.00 649.00
Net Income ($mil) 205.00 188.00
BALANCE SHEET
Q3 FY15 Q3 FY14
Cash & Equiv. ($mil) 355.00 734.00
Total Assets ($mil) 48,754.00 50,646.00
Total Debt ($mil) 20,414.00 21,151.00
Equity ($mil) 14,250.00 16,445.00
PROFITABILITY
Q3 FY15 Q3 FY14
Gross Profit Margin 56.35% 56.29%
EBITDA Margin 39.13% 38.67%
Operating Margin 16.12% 14.38%
Sales Turnover 0.37 0.36
Return on Assets 1.49% 1.62%
Return on Equity 5.10% 5.00%
DEBT
Q3 FY15 Q3 FY14
Current Ratio 0.60 0.88
Debt/Capital 0.59 0.56
Interest Expense 341.00 337.00
Interest Coverage 2.15 1.93
SHARE DATA
Q3 FY15 Q3 FY14
Shares outstanding (mil) 554 571
Div / share 0.54 0.54
EPS 0.37 0.33
Book value / share 25.72 28.82
Institutional Own % NA NA
Avg Daily Volume 5,094,406 5,423,87
I made it this small on purpose.

If it can get over 30 per share, I'll be more convinced. You kinda don't need it when you already have T.

All only my opinion.


Mutual funds are all kinda the same, as long as they have low overhead I think.
FMILX New Milennium has always been my fav.

I will note though that I've got some positions in Vanguard's dividend fund VIG and also the SDIV global etf, and neither of those have come anywhere close to the returns I'm getting on the stuff I pick myself for dividends.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on November 17, 2015, 07:55:36 PM
Yeah, I've been thinking of dumping my stock/dividend mutual funds to roll into REITs or the actual dividend stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on November 17, 2015, 07:58:41 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 17, 2015, 07:55:36 PM
Yeah, I've been thinking of dumping my stock/dividend mutual funds to roll into REITs or the actual dividend stocks.

Actually, I've been thinking of doing the opposite, dumping the dividend stocks to buy dividend funds  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 17, 2015, 08:07:54 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 17, 2015, 07:58:41 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 17, 2015, 07:55:36 PM
Yeah, I've been thinking of dumping my stock/dividend mutual funds to roll into REITs or the actual dividend stocks.

Actually, I've been thinking of doing the opposite, dumping the dividend stocks to buy dividend funds  :lol:

I'm not sure what it is, since a lot of the good dividend stocks are in the funds too. I don't think the management costs are quite that bad. They must just be weighed down with a bunch of junk. The SDIV is probably because it's in some badly-performing foreign stuff.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 17, 2015, 08:13:05 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on November 17, 2015, 08:07:54 PM
The SDIV is probably because it's in some badly-performing foreign stuff.

Even if they're performing well they're going to get hurt in dollar terms by the appreciation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on November 18, 2015, 03:27:17 PM
Speaking of REITs, MIM, what are your thoughts on CYS if you happen to have a second to look at it?  Seems the price has fallen a lot in the past 6 months.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACYS&ei=H89MVoHhM8H2jAGd_KDACg
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on November 18, 2015, 07:14:43 PM
CYS:

Quote from: CYS, what we do in a nutsack
About CYS Investments, Inc.

CYS Investments, Inc. is a specialty finance company that primarily invests on a leveraged basis in residential mortgage pass-through certificates for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. The Company refers to these securities as Agency RMBS. CYS Investments, Inc. has elected to be treated as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes.

Okay, essentially, they take your equity, use it to borrow more money at leverage, and then use that debt to buy RMBS(mortgages). Standard.

I looked up their financial statements. Hope this looks readable.
Edit--ok that looked terrible. Click here (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTk4ODc1fENoaWxkSUQ9MzA5NDAwfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1) for a pdf.



Quote
Summary Financial Data
(in thousands)                        Three Months Ended
Key Balance Sheet Metrics       September 30, 2015    June 30, 2015          March 31, 2015
Average settled Debt Securities (1)    $13,099,727   $13,219,744          $12,653,266
Average total Debt Securities (2)       $13,928,756    $14,711,932       $14,810,062    
Average repurchase agreements and FHLBC Advances (3)$11,557,064 $11,610,144   $10,954,377    
Average Debt Securities liabilities (4)       $12,386,093    $   13,102,332    $    13,111,173    
Average stockholders' equity (5)       $1,790,420          $1,893,445       $1,981,424    
Average common shares outstanding (6)       155,702       157,334          160,523    
Leverage ratio (at period end) (7)          6.87:1          7.06:1          6.77:1    
Book Value per common share          $    9.59          $   9.62          $    10.53

Okay, the first thing that stands out to me from that is the leverage ratio. For every dollar you put in as a shareholder, they're borrowing seven.

Let's see what they bought.



(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F4wusXmO.png&hash=546f91b5a6e2eaa3791f717a8d2c881e38fac60c)

So they're about split between loans of duration 15 and 30 years earning an average three and a half coupon.

As for the money they're borrowing, it's left a bit opaque, but I get the impression it's all short-term libor loans hedged with swaps and caps (like calls and puts on debt securities, sort of). I may be explaining that badly. Anyway, finviz lists their long-term debt to equity at only .28. It's probably a quarter behind, but that leaves the other 6.6 to 1 as all short-term loans if true.

So basically, their strategy is to borrow very short-term to buy long term mortgages paying low interest rates. That's a strategy to max out the interest rate gap (like a carry trade).

I don't want to get too far in the weeds, but basically the risks of this strategy are that one, you have to incur constant costs associated with hedging, and two, you are constantly rolling your debt while your income is locked in on long-term mortgage terms. Basically, if interest rates go up considerably, you're fooked. There is a summary of that in their pdf (maybe optimistic).
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FGLP4CXT.png&hash=7315a4821daa12731707c0c802b0b549d32dedbd)


Honestly, I'd prefer having all debt match duration with my securities, essentially contractualizing the profits, rather than relying on swaps deals to hedge the interest rate risk. I don't like it. I don't want to have to bug the Fed's bathrooms to see who farts when so I know when to sell.

Analysts don't seem to like it much.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXo7oe85.png&hash=8ef56905f65630ad93d4b44407e430642ec70989)


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 18, 2015, 07:41:11 PM
Tonto doesn't want to look at all that shit.  He wants you to tell him what to buy and what to sell.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on November 18, 2015, 08:34:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 18, 2015, 07:41:11 PM
Tonto doesn't want to look at all that shit.  He wants you to tell him what to buy and what to sell.

I didn't ask about that one...but I do want to see all that shit.  I needs to be edumacated.  :smarty:

But as I had already talked about...my instincts sour on those high-dividend, purely-mortgage loan-based REITs.  They feel too scammy/good-to-be-true for investments that are even remotely long-term.

I prefer the idea of buying REITs that own property and extract rents...because that is what I would like to do with my money, but don't want to actually having to deal personally with all that landlord shit.  And a nice, modest dividend (as SIR/IRT, etc have) is good too.  ;)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on November 18, 2015, 09:42:20 PM
Thanks MIM, you're the best.  :hug:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 21, 2015, 10:32:32 PM
Pearson ADRs went in the shitter.

I r poor.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2015, 05:58:59 PM
Thinking about putting my 2016 IRA money into Square.  They have an app that allows small businesses to process credit card payments through their smart phone.  Anyone want to talk me out of it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on December 06, 2015, 07:17:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2015, 05:58:59 PM
Thinking about putting my 2016 IRA money into Square.  They have an app that allows small businesses to process credit card payments through their smart phone.  Anyone want to talk me out of it?

http://investorplace.com/2015/12/300-million-reasons-avoid-square-stock-sq/ (http://investorplace.com/2015/12/300-million-reasons-avoid-square-stock-sq/)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2015, 09:35:25 PM
Danke agent k.  Doesn't necessarily talk me out of it, but the number of participants in the market is definitely food for thought.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on December 06, 2015, 09:53:57 PM
 NPR had a story not long ago highlighting some pretty glaring problems they had with client service that was pissing of some of their users/customers.  That being that they were arbitrarily shutting off accounts for unproven "questionable activity" and locking up the associated funds (which could be killer for some of those micro businesses).  Normally might be something calling their client customer service could square away, but the spin of the story was that the above account shuttering also cut off their access to that very same client service.  :wacko:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 07, 2015, 03:56:17 PM
Rubbermaid kickin on merger talks.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/newell-rubbermaid-jarden-in-merger-talks-1449521419

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on December 07, 2015, 08:50:26 PM
I had some NWL, but sold it a couple months ago.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on December 11, 2015, 11:41:27 PM
MAH STOCKS.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 12, 2015, 02:16:01 AM
Fed.  We've been living on borrowed time.  Let's see where it bottoms out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 12, 2015, 10:27:23 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 11, 2015, 11:41:27 PM
MAH STOCKS.  :(

I had Chipolte stock. HAD.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 13, 2015, 11:31:13 PM
I hope the Federal Reserve grow some balls and raise interest rates.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 07, 2016, 10:11:52 PM
Just pulled the trigger on SQ.

Spray and pray.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 08, 2016, 12:01:54 AM
There are so many different types of those services, what makes square unique/makes you optimistic on them?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 08, 2016, 08:57:30 AM
Quote from: Alcibiades on January 08, 2016, 12:01:54 AM
There are so many different types of those services, what makes square unique/makes you optimistic on them?

First mover advantage.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 08, 2016, 10:09:47 AM
I had my limit set at 11.16 and it opened at 11.40.  Trigger: NOT PULLED.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 08, 2016, 10:11:59 AM
I still have a position in CHK.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 08, 2016, 04:09:19 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 08, 2016, 10:11:59 AM
I still have a position in CHK.  :(

:face:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 08, 2016, 04:11:33 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 08, 2016, 10:11:59 AM
I still have a position in CHK.  :(
When did you enter it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 08, 2016, 08:01:48 PM
I've bought in and out of it several times, and made a windfall on it in like 2009 or something.  This latest position is a couple of years old.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 08, 2016, 09:35:39 PM
I am thinking I should be taking advantage of that weak Canadian dollar to make a northwest native art investment shopping trip to the Vancouver area.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2016, 02:58:38 AM
You should take advantage of that weak loonie by banging the hell out of screamin' hott Montreal hoors.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 12, 2016, 03:22:19 PM
Man, I wish I could screencap my TV. CNBC was just running a crawl that said "catastrophic year, sell everything".  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on January 12, 2016, 04:03:11 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 12, 2016, 03:22:19 PM
Man, I wish I could screencap my TV. CNBC was just running a crawl that said "catastrophic year, sell everything".  :lol:

That's apparently what Royal Bank of Scotland is advising "sell everything".

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on January 12, 2016, 04:07:53 PM
Well Zerohedge is saying there's no trade (as in no ships actually moving between ports) and the Baltic Dry Index has fallen to an all time low. So perhaps it's not so far off the mark?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on January 12, 2016, 04:29:37 PM
Quote from: PJL on January 12, 2016, 04:07:53 PM
Well Zerohedge is saying there's no trade (as in no ships actually moving between ports) and the Baltic Dry Index has fallen to an all time low. So perhaps it's not so far off the mark?

I took a peak at zerohedge (thanks, now I have to take a shower <_<) and what they're saying is that chinese shipbuilding orders have collapsed, dropping 59% in 2015.  Which is bad, but is hardly the same as "no ships moving between ports".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 12, 2016, 07:47:34 PM
Oil at or near a 12-13 year low.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on January 13, 2016, 12:14:04 AM
Quote from: mongers on January 12, 2016, 07:47:34 PM
Oil at or near a 12-13 year low.  :hmm:

And so is the CDN $. <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2016, 01:44:11 AM
Quote from: Barrister on January 13, 2016, 12:14:04 AM
And so is the CDN $. <_<

Man, you're not kidding. :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2016, 10:29:53 AM
SQ: acquired.

2nd day of rally in the market.

T continues its ascent.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 27, 2016, 08:50:53 PM
MAH AAPL   :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on January 27, 2016, 09:25:26 PM
All I want to say is, the Federal Reserve are pussies for not raising rates  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 27, 2016, 09:33:12 PM
I got boned hard by Boeing today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 09, 2016, 06:33:38 AM
Been looking closely at FEYE, been dropping hard, and isn't necessarily profitable.  But it looks so juicy.  :mmm:


Any thoughts on it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zanza on February 10, 2016, 01:00:01 PM
Rumors about Deutsche Bank (11th biggest bank in the world by assets) 'defaulting' on so-called contigent convertible bonds in April, meaning their bond holders lose their money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on February 10, 2016, 07:04:30 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 08, 2016, 10:11:59 AM
I still have a position in CHK.  :(
:bleeding: :frusty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: celedhring on February 10, 2016, 07:08:50 PM
Quote from: Zanza on February 10, 2016, 01:00:01 PM
Rumors about Deutsche Bank (11th biggest bank in the world by assets) 'defaulting' on so-called contigent convertible bonds in April, meaning their bond holders lose their money.

A close friend of mine is a marketing consultant for them, and she told me they were running like headless chickens a couple months ago, but she didn't know why. Guess we all know, now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on February 11, 2016, 02:34:49 AM
Concerns about Deutsche Bank have reached the mainstream British media now :

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/10/deutsche-bank-germany-financial-colossus-stumbles
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 11, 2016, 02:49:34 AM
Credit-Anstalt


:ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 11, 2016, 08:35:35 PM
Thank you rebound in gold. €€€€€££££¥¥¥¥$$$$

I'm getting a 2007 feeling in the housing market.  :glare:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 12, 2016, 02:42:11 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 11, 2016, 08:35:35 PM
I'm getting a 2007 feeling in the housing market.  :glare:

I kind of agree. It's shaky. But don't worry. They won't let it crash until after the election this time.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on February 12, 2016, 09:06:02 PM
Prices where I live haven't really moved at all in the past 3 years :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: citizen k on February 23, 2016, 02:44:45 PM
Stocks ruined my life  :(

https://www.gofundme.com/4kqtbvk4 (https://www.gofundme.com/4kqtbvk4)




Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 28, 2016, 08:31:53 PM
Conducted my first Square transaction down at the Regal Beagle.  Easy peasy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 29, 2016, 03:00:54 PM
Sent some cash to Lending Club, set up automated investing.

I have 3 referrals that are worth $75 each (you have to invest 5K).  Anyone interested?  I've sent out emails to 3 friends/relatives, so I need to see what they say first.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 29, 2016, 03:57:31 PM
To clarify, these are signup bonuses that go to you, not referral bonuses that go to me.

Which is kind of a gyp.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on March 01, 2016, 04:06:10 PM
Splunk (SPLK) is up 40% for me since I bought the dip two weeks ago amidst the tech / big data stock negative sentiment.  I want to sell and pocket the quick profit, but am greedy that these stocks will get run up to super silly valuations again.   :hmm:

Meanwhile, underperforming Sprint (S) remains a long thorn in my side.  So much dead money in there.  :mad:  Please give me a merger or spectrum deal rumor.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 01, 2016, 04:12:41 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on March 01, 2016, 04:06:10 PM
Splunk (SPLK) is up 40% for me since I bought the dip two weeks ago amidst the tech / big data stock negative sentiment.  I want to sell and pocket the quick profit, but am greedy that these stocks will get run up to super silly valuations again.   :hmm:


Greed and fear are the two main things that make people make mistakes. I'd sell enough to get the initial investment back. You can let the rest run with a clear conscience.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 02, 2016, 04:06:50 PM
Greed are fear are the only things that matter in finance.

Taking your whole original stake off the table seems like too much.  That's 71% of current holdings.  If you think there's still upside, sell off like 50% of current holdings.

I'm getting some nice movement on SQ, and T is brushing up on $38 a share.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Brain on March 08, 2016, 01:41:55 PM
I heard that Paradox Interactive will be going public.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2016, 02:58:49 PM
Five business days after my funds arrived at Lending Club, $3,750 of $5,000 has been lent out, putting to rest my fear that the hidden cost was a long float period while my money just sat there.  The rest has been "committed," meaning it has been matched with a borrower, but the loan is not final because the total amount has not been subscribed yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 09, 2016, 03:11:01 PM
Good luck.  I've been contemplating Lending Club as well, but I stopped when I found out that there are plenty of predictive models out there working off the API feed.  Since I can't compete with that either on timing or on analytics, I'll be taking the crap deemed too risky for the price by sophisticated algorithms.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2016, 03:17:40 PM
I don't mind if the big boys beat me by a couple basis points.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 09, 2016, 03:20:19 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2016, 03:17:40 PM
I don't mind if the big boys beat me by a couple basis points.
Couple of basis points I'm fine with.  Negative returns, not so much.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2016, 03:25:34 PM
Friendly wager on my total return?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 09, 2016, 03:32:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2016, 03:25:34 PM
Friendly wager on my total return?
No, I don't have a good handle on figures.  But I'm curious, what kind of return are you expecting?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2016, 03:37:54 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 09, 2016, 03:32:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2016, 03:25:34 PM
Friendly wager on my total return?
No, I don't have a good handle on figures.  But I'm curious, what kind of return are you expecting?

They say expected return for my risk profile is 8.83.  Historical range 6.95 to 9.95.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2016, 03:56:16 PM
Make the historical 6.43 to 9.55.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 17, 2016, 02:52:50 PM
AT&T edges past 39.  Thinking about unloading some shares if it hits 40.

Warren has already cut back his holdings.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 21, 2016, 01:55:38 AM
All the risk talk is getting to me. I mean, maybe these decades of low interest and QE really are akin to over-prescribing antibiotics and we're all gonna get hit with a super-resistant flu.

It seems like the obvious thing to do keeps getting postponed. I wish I could sit down and talk to Paul Volcker right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 21, 2016, 02:41:25 AM
It seems to be that the underlying problem is a lack of demand. Too much money in the hands of people who simply won't spend it. People already in debt are expected to ride to the rescue by borrowing and spending even more, but their financial position is already dreadful. Low interest and QE have helped people who already have money to increase the value of their holdings, but austerity has also reduced our faith in the state so people cling on to these gains to insure against disaster. I think the ageing of the population plays an important role in this, older people are more cautious with money because the prospect of being old with no money is just too horrible to contemplate.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2016, 06:12:34 PM
Big jump in SQ today, can't find any news that's driving it.  I'm up 30%, toying with the idea of cashing out, either in whole or in part.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 21, 2016, 07:25:23 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2016, 06:12:34 PM
Big jump in SQ today, can't find any news that's driving it.  I'm up 30%, toying with the idea of cashing out, either in whole or in part.

Go to finance.google.com and pull up the stock symbol.  They have a little pertinent news feed on the upper right side.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2016, 07:41:25 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 21, 2016, 07:25:23 PM
Go to finance.google.com and pull up the stock symbol.  They have a little pertinent news feed on the upper right side.

Thanks.

Looks like the rise was driven by folks covering their shorts.

Should I be glad the market beat up the short sellers, or should I worry they were shorting 37% of the float?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2016, 04:43:44 PM
Sold off about 1/3 my SQ stake when it hit 15 (bought in at 10.25).  I think that might be the most emotionally satisfying thing to do with a stock that has a big appreciation in a short time frame, take your winnings off the table and leave your original stake.

Put those winnings and proceeds from iShares midcap index fund (which was doing nothing for 4 years) into Sketchers, the shoe company.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 12, 2016, 09:59:13 PM
My first big tranche of LendingClub payments came in today.  They were all due 4/7 and I had been sweating the last couple days thinking my entire portfolio was lent to Greeks.  The fact they all came in the same day suggests to me that it takes 4 business days for the payments to post to my account.  That seems more reasonable than 125 people all making their late payment on exactly the same day.

So far I've made 38.78 on 5K down.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2016, 01:43:37 PM
Ruh-ro.  My first two officially late payments.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 14, 2016, 01:50:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2016, 01:43:37 PM
Ruh-ro.  My first two officially late payments.
Need any help collecting?  :) :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 28, 2016, 03:21:26 PM
https://www.yieldstreet.com/?gclid=CK_938STsswCFQiUaQodgXUHaw

Check out the public face of this fund.  ^_^
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 28, 2016, 10:14:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 28, 2016, 03:21:26 PM
https://www.yieldstreet.com/?gclid=CK_938STsswCFQiUaQodgXUHaw

Check out the public face of this fund.  ^_^

Fuck Yeah! I'm all in!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 04, 2016, 07:43:32 PM
My regular stocks have been hit or miss for the most part lately (mostly miss  :( ), but just about all of my REITS have been blazing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2016, 11:32:01 AM
Ugh, bad couple days.  My new stocks have given up all their gains.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on May 06, 2016, 03:49:37 PM
My one REIT that I have left is going pretty strong. I'm out of all other positions wholly right now, though. Just have a feeling things aren't that rosy and will continue to fall.


Bkcc dropped about 1.50 a share in the last couple of weeks. Pretty tempted despite my above feelings. Initially got in at 8.50 and sold at 9.30 around 2 Jan. Sitting around 8.00 right now.   :hmm:

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 06, 2016, 07:49:36 PM
mah square stock.  :cry:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2016, 07:55:15 PM
You bought Square too?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 06, 2016, 07:57:23 PM
Had a hundred shares.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2016, 07:58:35 PM
Did you unload today?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on May 06, 2016, 07:59:18 PM
Yep. Took a minor loss.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on May 07, 2016, 12:10:35 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 06, 2016, 11:32:01 AM
Ugh, bad couple days.  My new stocks have given up all their gains.  :(

Recent declines are slightly disappointing, but the rally before that was not really justified either.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 07, 2016, 01:09:48 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on May 07, 2016, 12:10:35 AM
Recent declines are slightly disappointing, but the rally before that was not really justified either.

Hey did you cash in any of your Splunk winnings?

I feel like fucking Dr. Doom right now for taking some Square chips off the table near the peak.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on May 07, 2016, 11:51:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 07, 2016, 01:09:48 AM

Hey did you cash in any of your Splunk winnings?

I feel like fucking Dr. Doom right now for taking some Square chips off the table near the peak.

Nope. :D

My cost basis is $33 from a February purchase.
Yesterday it ended at $46
Two weeks ago it was $53

Hold.  I am waiting for another cycle of hype (acquisition, blow-out quarter, etc).  Their billing model is how much data an organization ingests each year.  Their customers are locked in and can't stop!  Still don't see any major competitor.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 18, 2016, 08:52:55 PM
Warren has sold off his entire AT&T position.

Tesla is selling $2 billion in existing stock to the public to finance production of their new sedan.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on May 18, 2016, 09:09:26 PM
I won't buy Tesla stocks.  I don't think the guy's primary goal is profits.  He is already rich enough.  He just wants to disrupt the electronics car market and make the car giants to roll out their electronics cars. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on May 18, 2016, 09:33:50 PM
The Simpsons episode about Elon was pretty funny, and makes a similar point to Mono's. Musk did his own voice. I watched it in Spanish in Chile. Los Simpson.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on June 07, 2016, 09:54:48 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on May 07, 2016, 11:51:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 07, 2016, 01:09:48 AM

Hey did you cash in any of your Splunk winnings?

I feel like fucking Dr. Doom right now for taking some Square chips off the table near the peak.

Nope. :D

My cost basis is $33 from a February purchase.
Yesterday it ended at $46
Two weeks ago it was $53

Hold.  I am waiting for another cycle of hype (acquisition, blow-out quarter, etc).  Their billing model is how much data an organization ingests each year.  Their customers are locked in and can't stop!  Still don't see any major competitor.

Just sold off my entire Splunk position @ $59, a 78% gain.  Markets reaching a 2016 high while Splunk reaching for the $60 psychological point scared me.

Also reduced a small portion of my stagnant Sprint holdings at a break even price.

Altogether got a good amount of cash now waiting to deploy during worse times.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 09, 2016, 01:44:09 PM
T broke through 40 today.

Anyone else thinking about unloading?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 09, 2016, 01:46:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 09, 2016, 01:44:09 PM
T broke through 40 today.

Anyone else thinking about unloading?
:hmm: I'm excited about it too, but not that excited.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 09, 2016, 02:12:42 PM
I have no reason to sell it yet.

At $50 the P/E would only be 21.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on June 13, 2016, 02:00:16 PM
Government bond yields continue to drop.  Incredible.  Or scary.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 20, 2016, 02:14:38 PM
Entered a sell order for 200 T @ @41.  I'm way too concentrated in T anyway.  Assuming it goes through, any suggestions on where to put that money?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on June 24, 2016, 10:21:06 AM
Anybody ever look into Telefonica (TEF)?  It has reached at least a 5-year low, but still pays a dividend even with all its debt. :wacko:

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATEF (https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATEF)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 24, 2016, 11:15:12 AM
Yeah 250% debt to equity makes it hard to make money.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpZSYVkb.jpg&hash=d44d2eef53505c3030e649815940e2c9a5ffcdd9)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 24, 2016, 11:54:53 AM
It's funny, DOW down 500. Altria and WalMart up. It's the "invest in the things poor people buy" thinking.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on June 24, 2016, 11:58:02 AM
Still nothing looks cheap to me right now.  Need a bigger drop.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 24, 2016, 12:12:32 PM
Crude down 5%. That means there are margin calls going on IMO.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on June 27, 2016, 08:43:34 AM
Another nice drop in markets this morning, but still need more to make stock prices look attractive.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 27, 2016, 03:02:16 PM
S&P couldn't stay above 2000 today. Lost almost a thousand in two trading days now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: CountDeMoney on June 27, 2016, 06:25:23 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 20, 2016, 02:14:38 PM
Entered a sell order for 200 T @ @41.  I'm way too concentrated in T anyway.  Assuming it goes through, any suggestions on where to put that money?

Blue horseshoe loves Teldar Paper.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on June 28, 2016, 02:12:20 AM
Not so bad for the Hakluyt portfolio, shares in oil and pharma that are listed in London are up. They trade in dollars and are not "British" companies per se, so a 10% decline in the value of sterling effectively means that their dividends are up a corresponding amount.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 29, 2016, 03:21:13 PM
Markets certainly shrugged off Brexit quickly.  Maybe everything will be ossum.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on June 29, 2016, 03:23:04 PM
Probably just a short squeeze.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Brain on June 29, 2016, 03:31:15 PM
Any Paradox owners here?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 03, 2016, 01:59:54 AM
Anyone pay any attention to analysts?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on July 03, 2016, 11:15:54 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 03, 2016, 01:59:54 AM
Anyone pay any attention to analysts?

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/4qhb98/wsb_weekly_herald_idiot_canadian_trader_hailed_as/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 21, 2016, 08:49:03 AM
I have been thinking about experimenting a bit with algorithm based investing. I like that you can test it using old data before you can take it live. The amount of money would be pretty low I just thought it might be kind of fun. Anybody have some advice on how to do that? I am worried fees and so forth might make it non-feasible as a source of entertainment and possible profit. Is that true?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 21, 2016, 10:22:44 AM
QuoteI like that you can test it using old data before you can take it live.
Be careful, the stock market cemetery is full of people who had an algorithm that worked well in back-testing.  Churn through enough candidates, and you'll find one that predicts the past very well.
QuoteAnybody have some advice on how to do that?
Don't.
QuoteI am worried fees and so forth might make it non-feasible as a source of entertainment and possible profit. Is that true?
When it comes to entertainment, YMMV.  But as far as profits go, absolutely.  Algorithmic trading is a very brutal business, and algorithmic traders do things like finding the physical location with the shortest cable length to the exchange servers, to eek out milliseconds in lag.  You're not going to fare well against such entities, you'll be the source of their profits.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 21, 2016, 10:28:57 AM
QuoteWhen it comes to entertainment, YMMV.  But as far as profits go, absolutely.  Algorithmic trading is a very brutal business, and algorithmic traders do things like finding the physical location with the shortest cable length to the exchange servers, to eek out milliseconds in lag.  You're not going to fare well against such entities, you'll be the source of their profits.

Ah. Gotcha. It sounds a bit like Fan Duel or some shit.

I thought it might be fun, like some kind of video game, but not if it goes like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDIbYXM2jK0
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 10:43:10 AM
It's possible you guys are talking about two different things.

Valmy, are you talking about that company that advertised nationally a while back, that automatically divides up your money into different investments?  Can't remember the name.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 21, 2016, 11:02:10 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 10:43:10 AM
It's possible you guys are talking about two different things.

Valmy, are you talking about that company that advertised nationally a while back, that automatically divides up your money into different investments?  Can't remember the name.

Not exactly. A few years ago a good buddy of mind was having a good time doing currency speculation type shit (well he did stocks and commodities as well but he enjoyed currency the most) using algorithms and he would usually pocket a few hundred extra bucks a month and this was all during the economic downturn. He said we might be fun to do a bit of it together at some point. Well now I have some money to do something like that but he passed away from cancer a few years back.

So I was just thinking about it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 21, 2016, 07:39:18 PM
Ok so I am asking around and I am told the most hands on low risk-ish short term investiness entertainment for my money is peer to peer lending. Like Lending Club or something which apparently has been a thing for awhile but I had never heard of it before. Is that better? I am thinking of putting in a hundred bucks a month to fool around with and posting an AAR around the first of the month here so you can all laugh at/cheer me as I goof around in the world of high stakes video games.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Forig00.deviantart.net%2Fd4e7%2Ff%2F2012%2F247%2F6%2Fb%2Fand_it_s_gone_by_celeith-d5div3y.jpg&hash=709a69ab463cb23282fcfdb3b8b30773a257e43d)

Sound like fun? Entertaining? Advice?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on July 21, 2016, 07:40:33 PM
You can always watch Mad Money*.

*not serious advice
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 07:46:18 PM
I've got some money in Lending Club.  Was trying to give away referral bonuses, no takers.  It's $75 free money if you put up five large.

FYI, it's not short term.  Loan durations are 3 and 5 years.

I'm making 9 percent and change right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 21, 2016, 10:22:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 07:46:18 PM
I've got some money in Lending Club.  Was trying to give away referral bonuses, no takers.  It's $75 free money if you put up five large.

FYI, it's not short term.  Loan durations are 3 and 5 years.

I'm making 9 percent and change right now.

9 percent sounds good to me :hmm: I am glad you are doing this, you usually know your investments. So I guess the chances of losing it all super fast are low.

Yes I know it is only short termish but it was the best I could do.

Anyway I will be playing with $100 a month not 5 large :P

But hey if I end up playing a couple years it could eventually be 5 large.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 10:37:03 PM
100 bucks is only 4 loans.  Poorer rated loans have historic default rates of like 9%, so it's theoretically possible you'd get wiped out on your first due date.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 21, 2016, 10:39:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 10:37:03 PM
100 bucks is only 4 loans.  Poorer rated loans have historic default rates of like 9%, so it's theoretically possible you'd get wiped out on your first due date.

Well won't that be fun? It takes a few weeks at least to get to the first due date. I was worried it would take a few minutes, like thinking you are going to have a good time at a Vegas Casino or something.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 10:47:20 PM
Go ahead and get 4 A or B rated loans.  You'll get less yield, but I haven't had any As or Bs Greece out on me yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 21, 2016, 10:48:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 10:47:20 PM
Go ahead and get 4 A or B rated loans.  You'll get less yield, but I haven't had any As or Bs Greece out on me yet.

I was planning on taking mostly those combined with a few nutso ones from time to time. Diversify and all that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 10:54:07 PM
Dude, $100 gets you four loans.  You can't diversify with four loans.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 21, 2016, 10:57:46 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 10:54:07 PM
Dude, $100 gets you four loans.  You can't diversify with four loans.

I think you failed to see the rules of the game. $100 gets added every month.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2016, 10:58:21 PM
K
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on July 21, 2016, 11:29:47 PM
Do it.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi380.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Foo250%2Fstinkdyr%2FCigars%2Fpopcorn.gif%7Eoriginal&hash=fe1abc8a6a6fd27b23fea04a7626c7b5a39adee5)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 22, 2016, 01:41:34 AM
Thinking about buying some AMLP with my AT&T selloff.

Alerian Master Limited Partnership Exchange Traded Fund.  Get some of those nice MLP dividends without the tax headaches. Yielding 8.78% right now.

BTW Mono, you never thanked me for pimping you AT&T.  <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on July 22, 2016, 02:56:24 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on July 21, 2016, 07:40:33 PM
You can always watch Mad Money

You monster!  :wacko:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 22, 2016, 07:43:50 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on July 21, 2016, 11:29:47 PM
Do it.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi380.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Foo250%2Fstinkdyr%2FCigars%2Fpopcorn.gif%7Eoriginal&hash=fe1abc8a6a6fd27b23fea04a7626c7b5a39adee5)

:hug:

I am glad one of you thinks this might be a fun idea :lol:

Anyway probably more entertaining to AAR about then testing investment algorithms.

I am going to be out of town soon but once I get back I will do my first episode of 'Valmy vs Lendingclub' around the 5th of August or so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 22, 2016, 10:38:12 AM
Pulled the trigger on AMLP. :pipelinetycoon:

Got crushed on Sketchers earnings report. :bleeding:

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 25, 2016, 01:45:39 PM
Square is back up above 10 in the run up to the earnings report.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on July 25, 2016, 02:07:45 PM
Sprint (S) up almost 30% after surprise earnings show the carrier might actually be recovering.

I sold off some shares and remain cautious.  They are highly dependent on financial engineering to maintain their massive debt load and deep discounting to barely add postpaid customers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 02, 2016, 12:12:19 PM
Anyone looking for first rate money management at a very reasonable price should check out the firm of Morgan, Kleinworth, Lehman & Coutts:  http://www.vice.com/read/rattraders-0000519-v21n12   They may not look like your typical Wall Street money manager but you can't argue with results.  And they have a built in advantage in the wall street rat race.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Brazen on August 03, 2016, 09:37:19 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 02, 2016, 12:12:19 PM
Anyone looking for first rate money management at a very reasonable price should check out the firm of Morgan, Kleinworth, Lehman & Coutts:  http://www.vice.com/read/rattraders-0000519-v21n12   They may not look like your typical Wall Street money manager but you can't argue with results.  And they have a built in advantage in the wall street rat race.
:D
But could we get the same result is we just gave traders an electric shock every time they get it wrong?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on August 03, 2016, 09:53:05 AM
Quote from: Brazen on August 03, 2016, 09:37:19 AM
But could we get the same result is we just gave traders an electric shock every time they get it wrong?

Yes but you can't house them in cages and feed them moldy cheese.  Damn human rights conventions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 05, 2016, 06:51:45 PM
Ok so yesterday it was time to start my grand adventure in the deep dungeons of LENDING CLUB. Oh what vile monsters will devour my soul in this abyss of usurious darkness?

Alright so here we go:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi93.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl58%2FValmy77%2FLC1_zpscge01vpy.jpg&hash=bb7bd5aa9fb63f04528d12811ce988632cca6951)

Hell yeah! Viper can tell you I always play on hard mode. Also I am only investing $100.00 so might as well.

Speaking of $100.00 I must arm myself with my noobie sword.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi93.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl58%2FValmy77%2FLC4_zpsiw2lkcby.jpg&hash=44930523be75f7b519419a9fd1bf6435f8a6f1e9)

Now to slay the...um wait what?

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi93.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl58%2FValmy77%2FLC3_zpsbzwbjiiw.jpg&hash=a6d78610e1df77760f99d790ab29eb27b2f1db35)

Friday? Ok damn I will come back on Friday.

Ok so today I load it up all excited to get in there and start battling the noobie notes of doom but...

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi93.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl58%2FValmy77%2FLC2_zpsg0e1avbi.jpg&hash=d2ab38488f79362539431b087bc870f12be76140)

FUCK this game takes forever to load up.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.loadthegame.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F05%2FLoading____Please_Wait_by_Cyanide_Cloud.png&hash=d95740a2080a25fe20b56fb01fa71944b888aa6b)

I will tell Total Biscuit to do a very harsh review of this game.

Anyway so...I guess I will start this all next week then. At least me losing all my money immediately will not happen!

I guess I should make a 'Lending Club Quest' graphic or something. Well I have plenty of time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 05, 2016, 07:29:42 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 05, 2016, 06:51:45 PM
I will tell Total Biscuit to do a very harsh review of this game.

Did I mention I met him? Also Charles Barkley. Same day.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 05, 2016, 08:33:18 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 05, 2016, 07:29:42 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 05, 2016, 06:51:45 PM
I will tell Total Biscuit to do a very harsh review of this game.

Did I mention I met him? Also Charles Barkley. Same day.

No you never did. Awesome. What even would include both of them? :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 05, 2016, 08:38:26 PM
CES show Vegas January 1016.  :)

TB was calling a CS tournament.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 05, 2016, 08:47:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 05, 2016, 08:38:26 PM
CES show Vegas January 1016.  :)

TB was calling a CS tournament.

Jealous. Is there a good story there?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 01:12:27 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 05, 2016, 06:51:45 PM
I guess I should make a 'Lending Club Quest' graphic or something. Well I have plenty of time.

Ok so here it is:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi93.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl58%2FValmy77%2FLC5_zpsvm2qy6pj.jpg&hash=733961410bbc3b1be6aa30963e45cd17143115e9)

What do you think? :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 06, 2016, 01:14:56 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 01:12:27 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 05, 2016, 06:51:45 PM
I guess I should make a 'Lending Club Quest' graphic or something. Well I have plenty of time.

Ok so here it is:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi93.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl58%2FValmy77%2FLC5_zpsvm2qy6pj.jpg&hash=733961410bbc3b1be6aa30963e45cd17143115e9)

What do you think? :hmm:

:D :D

9.5/10, would play.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2016, 01:27:08 PM
FYI Valmy, even if you lose all your money right away, you won't lose all your money right away.  A loan stays on the books for a long time after a payment is missed, at a discounted value.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 01:28:23 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2016, 01:27:08 PM
FYI Valmy, even if you lose all your money right away, you won't lose all your money right away.  A loan stays on the books for a long time after a payment is missed, at a discounted value.

Ah so I could theoretically sell my stake to some sucker at a discounted value then? Interesting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 01:28:46 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 06, 2016, 01:14:56 PM
:D :D

9.5/10, would play.

:thumbsup: Thanks!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2016, 01:33:13 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 01:28:23 PM
Ah so I could theoretically sell my stake to some sucker at a discounted value then? Interesting.

There is a dedicated secondary market which I haven't bothered looking at on the assumption that the discounts demanded would be outrageous.

Lending Club provides the discounted value, based on their historical experience with recovering money from loans that have gone delinquent, for informational purposes.  It's definitely not a resale price guarantee.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 02:16:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 06, 2016, 01:33:13 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 01:28:23 PM
Ah so I could theoretically sell my stake to some sucker at a discounted value then? Interesting.

There is a dedicated secondary market which I haven't bothered looking at on the assumption that the discounts demanded would be outrageous.

Lending Club provides the discounted value, based on their historical experience with recovering money from loans that have gone delinquent, for informational purposes.  It's definitely not a resale price guarantee.

I get that. But the secondary market gives me a second chance. In any case hopefully none of this will be relevant for me anytime soon.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 06, 2016, 02:50:57 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 06, 2016, 01:14:56 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 01:12:27 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 05, 2016, 06:51:45 PM
I guess I should make a 'Lending Club Quest' graphic or something. Well I have plenty of time.

Ok so here it is:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi93.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl58%2FValmy77%2FLC5_zpsvm2qy6pj.jpg&hash=733961410bbc3b1be6aa30963e45cd17143115e9)

What do you think? :hmm:

:D :D

9.5/10, would play.

Agreed.  Reminds me of the old Sierra Online games.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 06, 2016, 02:54:52 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 06, 2016, 02:50:57 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 06, 2016, 01:14:56 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 01:12:27 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 05, 2016, 06:51:45 PM
I guess I should make a 'Lending Club Quest' graphic or something. Well I have plenty of time.

Ok so here it is:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi93.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fl58%2FValmy77%2FLC5_zpsvm2qy6pj.jpg&hash=733961410bbc3b1be6aa30963e45cd17143115e9)

What do you think? :hmm:

:D :D

9.5/10, would play.

Agreed.  Reminds me of the old Sierra Online games.  :P

Just needs some pixellated bags of gold coins.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 05:17:03 PM
I was thinking of doing:

Usury Quest: So you want to be a Mono

In this style:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theschoolforheroes.com%2Fwordpress%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F08%2Fillo_herosquest.jpg&hash=a0003939c5bf36a58027b89e8c97a7a819e6700c)

Hah at the free Prodigy.

But then I saw this:

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Funderscoopfire.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F02%2Fspaceballs-the-search-for-more-money_opt.jpg&hash=c152479a0566ac5c70724042aff85f8149189610)

And decided on its current form :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 06, 2016, 05:19:50 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 06, 2016, 02:54:52 PM
Just needs some pixellated bags of gold coins.

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fvignette3.wikia.nocookie.net%2Fquestforglory%2Fimages%2Fc%2Fce%2FMoney_pouch1.jpg%2Frevision%2Flatest%3Fcb%3D20120730015026&hash=c89762b68aa311244f2f59ea8db8008332084a5e)

:hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on August 08, 2016, 09:30:54 AM
Getting interested in buying one of the regional wireless telecoms such as SHEN or USM.  Maybe they will get bought out by T-Mobile US or other party.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 06, 2016, 08:00:26 PM
My Twitter strategery failed. I hoped Zuckerfuckface would make a play for the company, but instead the stock went into the shitter.

Made a small profit, but I'm a bit butthurt right now.  :cry:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on October 08, 2016, 10:39:57 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on October 06, 2016, 08:00:26 PM
My Twitter strategery failed. I hoped Zuckerfuckface would make a play for the company, but instead the stock went into the shitter.

Made a small profit, but I'm a bit butthurt right now.  :cry:

What reasons for Facebook to acquire Twitter?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 24, 2016, 02:36:46 PM
AT&T has been taking a beating recently, following news of their takeover bid for Time Warner.  36.79 today, after peaking around 43.  Credit raters also put them on watch (currently BBB+).

My only hope now is to get written into the Anger Monkey will.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 24, 2016, 04:21:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 24, 2016, 02:36:46 PM
AT&T has been taking a beating recently, following news of their takeover bid for Time Warner.  36.79 today, after peaking around 43.  Credit raters also put them on watch (currently BBB+).

My only hope now is to get written into the Anger Monkey will.  :(

No
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on November 03, 2016, 09:52:13 AM
BKCC taking a beating, was down as low as 6.85 a share this morning.  Good time to buy, maybe?  Though their release after COB yesterday looked a bit concerning.... :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on November 03, 2016, 10:10:43 AM
Momentum trading FTW. Generally speaking.  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on November 10, 2016, 04:01:25 PM
Wall Street giddiness scaring me.  I sold off a piece of my portfolio today to build up cash and lock in gains.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2016, 04:05:33 PM
It's interesting how the market is predicting Trump's policies:

Foreign ETFs: ass crushed.  Mexico in particular.

Finance: up a bunch.  Analysts say regulations will be watered down.

My pipeline ETF is up a bunch, I guess because Trump will ditch a lot of green stuff like electric car subsidies?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2016, 05:27:53 PM
Just got an email from Lending Club: 2 United miles for every dollar invested.

How much is a frequent flyer mile worth?  I've never had any.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on November 10, 2016, 05:38:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2016, 05:27:53 PM
Just got an email from Lending Club: 2 United miles for every dollar invested.

How much is a frequent flyer mile worth?  I've never had any.

Few cents. Inflation rate is rough.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Malthus on November 10, 2016, 05:46:54 PM
I have no idea what the fuck is going on with the markets today. My portfolio is up 3% overall. This much volatility worries me, even though it is great to see such an increase, after a year that started with a downer and has been pretty anemic in recovering since.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2016, 05:47:56 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on November 10, 2016, 05:38:16 PM
Few cents. Inflation rate is rough.

I meant how many miles do you need before you can get a ticket.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2016, 05:49:57 PM
Never mind, Googled it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on November 10, 2016, 05:50:02 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2016, 05:47:56 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on November 10, 2016, 05:38:16 PM
Few cents. Inflation rate is rough.

I meant how many miles do you need before you can get a ticket.

Ah. Answer depends hugely on program and where you want to go. Say a business class return to Asia, 100-200k miles, roughly.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on November 10, 2016, 06:23:15 PM
It really depends, but a rule of thumb is a point is worth a penny.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on November 10, 2016, 08:29:09 PM
I've made bigly money the last couple of days.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on November 22, 2016, 09:18:19 PM
Wondering if/when I should start selling on this Trump "bubble". :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 07, 2016, 10:48:21 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 22, 2016, 09:18:19 PM
Wondering if/when I should start selling on this Trump "bubble". :hmm:

Market sure is fizzy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: frunk on December 07, 2016, 11:07:36 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 22, 2016, 09:18:19 PM
Wondering if/when I should start selling on this Trump "bubble". :hmm:

The day before whenever the market realizes that Trump is serious about tariffs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 07, 2016, 11:34:38 AM
Wasn't reading on the news feed for SQ (which incidentally is doing quite well, 13.65 at the moment) that they just bought Caviar, a restaurant delivery service in Philly.

What is a start up that is still losing money doing buying out another company?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on December 07, 2016, 11:45:04 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 07, 2016, 11:34:38 AM
Wasn't reading on the news feed for SQ (which incidentally is doing quite well, 13.65 at the moment) that they just bought Caviar, a restaurant delivery service in Philly.

What is a start up that is still losing money doing buying out another company?

Quick googling suggests that happened in 2014.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 07, 2016, 11:47:05 AM
Quote from: Barrister on December 07, 2016, 11:45:04 AM
Quick googling suggests that happened in 2014.

My bad.  They bought Main Line Delivery.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 07, 2016, 06:33:51 PM
Wow, a lot of elevation today. :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 07, 2016, 08:11:09 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on November 10, 2016, 08:29:09 PM
I've made bigly money the last couple of days.

Update:

BIGLY MONEY
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on December 07, 2016, 09:16:47 PM
AMAT has been an awesome stock for me over the last year, and PCAR...which I honestly bought primarily because their HQ is in my hometown...has been popping recently too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 12, 2016, 04:55:33 PM
There's a lot of money fleeing India right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Malthus on December 12, 2016, 05:33:55 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 07, 2016, 08:11:09 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on November 10, 2016, 08:29:09 PM
I've made bigly money the last couple of days.

Update:

BIGLY MONEY

Heh a rising tide lifts all boats - my portfolio has done very well since the election, having been relatively anemic all year. No idea why.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 14, 2016, 11:50:14 AM
Fed finally doing something today.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 14, 2016, 03:14:44 PM
The poor anchorbots on CNBC were so excited to get to 20,000 today. Janet robbed them.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on December 14, 2016, 08:39:41 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on December 14, 2016, 03:14:44 PM
The poor anchorbots on CNBC were so excited to get to 20,000 today. Janet robbed them.  :P

The job of the Federal Reserve is "to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_McChesney_Martin
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on December 15, 2016, 02:14:41 AM
Just as well, remember to sell when you start getting stock tips from your cab driver.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 15, 2016, 10:11:13 AM
Market shrugs off Yellin's punch bowl antics, another bigly day.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 15, 2016, 04:39:29 PM
BIGLY
[/color][/size]
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 15, 2016, 04:40:10 PM
Fuck.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 27, 2016, 03:17:21 PM
My German ETF just announced a biannual dividend of 9/10 of a penny per share.  I will be 94 cents richer after tomorrow. :yeah:

WTF?  I hope that's an input error.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on December 27, 2016, 08:23:01 PM
BIGLY PROFITS
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on December 27, 2016, 08:43:32 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on December 27, 2016, 08:23:01 PM
BIGLY PROFITS

Wait till next year to sell and pay the tax in 2018?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 03, 2017, 08:02:22 PM
Ed's Bigly profits continue. ALL HAIL THE GOD EMPEROR

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.deathandtaxesmag.com%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F04%2Fscroogemcduck_feature.jpg&hash=5dc49bb721580e85b43b89e7565bd5459b3252ff)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2017, 08:13:19 PM
Any suggestions for my 2017 IRA contribution?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 08, 2017, 07:29:16 PM
Pretty sure anyone short Sears Holdings is never going to have to cover. What a tragic story that mess is.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 08, 2017, 07:34:35 PM
Put in an order for VHT--Vanguard Health Care Index Fund.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: AnchorClanker on January 09, 2017, 01:07:42 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2017, 08:13:19 PM
Any suggestions for my 2017 IRA contribution?

Yes, but give me time to round up a fuller entry.  A Roth IRA, I presume?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2017, 10:26:45 AM
Quote from: AnchorClanker on January 09, 2017, 01:07:42 AM
Yes, but give me time to round up a fuller entry.  A Roth IRA, I presume?

Regular.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 09, 2017, 04:26:54 PM
If you want to add after-tax to it, you can convert it to a Roth, but do it slowly. Only enough per year to avoid a huge tax bill. Meantime, you have two IRAs, one for pre-tax contributions and one for if you want to put extra savings away.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 09, 2017, 08:21:20 PM
The Limited is closing all of its stores. I'm surprised it took this long though. I bet you can get some deals in liquidation sales.

Strange how Wexner abandoned the original company and just continued with acquired things like Victoria's Secret instead. It's been a few years since they dumped The Limited, I think.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on January 09, 2017, 08:38:33 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 09, 2017, 08:21:20 PM
The Limited is closing all of its stores. I'm surprised it took this long though. I bet you can get some deals in liquidation sales.

Strange how Wexner abandoned the original company and just continued with acquired things like Victoria's Secret instead. It's been a few years since they dumped The Limited, I think.

All these brick and mortar stores need to go away.  We will be a more happy, prosperous people getting rid of the wasted space.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 09, 2017, 08:42:52 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 09, 2017, 08:21:20 PM
The Limited is closing all of its stores. I'm surprised it took this long though. I bet you can get some deals in liquidation sales.

Strange how Wexner abandoned the original company and just continued with acquired things like Victoria's Secret instead. It's been a few years since they dumped The Limited, I think.

Sears and Kmart will soon be joining them. Which makes me sad a bit, since I worked at Kmart back in the late 80's- early 90's.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2017, 08:47:01 PM
Gnawing on blocks of gubmint cheese during breaks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 09, 2017, 08:49:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2017, 08:47:01 PM
Gnawing on blocks of gubmint cheese during breaks.

I still lived at home. FREE RENT? YES.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 09, 2017, 10:39:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2017, 08:47:01 PM
Gnawing on blocks of gubmint cheese during breaks.

Those blocks were YUGE.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 10, 2017, 11:05:45 AM
QuoteMW Here's how much ETFs are dominating on the trading floor

Jan 10, 2017 09:10:00 (ET)

By Ryan Vlastelica

Of the 15 most active securities in 2016, 14 were ETFs

Stock traders have become ETF traders.

In a sign of how fast exchange-traded funds have become the dominant security traded on Wall Street, only one of the 15 most heavily traded issues on the stock market in 2016 was actually a stock. The rest were ETFs, which trade like stocks but, like mutual funds, have a variety of holdings.

Total ETF volume in 2016 rose 17% over 2016, according to Credit Suisse. It was up 50% from 2015.To compare, trading volume for stocks rose just 7% between 2014 and 2016.

ETFs are increasingly favored by investors because they offer easy access to pretty much any sector, region, asset class, or strategy, typically with lower fees and greater tax efficiency than mutual funds. While the accessibility of ETFs, the largest of which are index funds, has played into the growing trend of passive investing (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/passive-investing-a-winner-in-2016-shows-no-sign-of-stopping-2016-12-27), the spike in volume indicates that traders are also using the funds as short-term holdings rather than core positions in their portfolios.

In 2016, ETFs accounted for 30% of all U.S. trading in terms of value, and 23% in terms of share volume. Their usage represents remarkably swift adoption of an asset class that is not even 30 years old -- the first launched in 1993. Trading growth could accelerate in 2017 with the implementation of the Labor Department's "fiduciary rule," which is widely expected to favor ETFs (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fiduciary-rule-may-create-a-10-trillion-exchange-traded-behemoth-by-2020-2016-10-05).

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) -- the oldest and largest ETF, with about $230 billion in assets -- was the most traded of any security last year, with an average daily volume of almost 90 million shares. The most active stock, Bank of America Corp. (BAC), came in 13th place, with a little more than 20 million shares traded daily, on average.

Similar results were seen when activity is measured by the value traded, as opposed to just the number of shares. The S&P ETF still came in first, with $19 billion traded in the fund each day, while a stock didn't enter the ranks until 13th place. By this metric, however, Apple Inc. (AAPL) was most active, with less than $1 billion traded.

This is particularly notable as Apple is the largest U.S. company by market cap, at around $626 billion, more than twice the assets of the S&P fund.

U.S. equity funds remain the most popular ETF category by far, in terms of volume. However, other categories saw much faster growth over 2016. While volume for U.S. equity funds rose 19% in 2016, international equity funds grew 55% while fixed income ETFs had volume growth of 68%. Commodity-based funds saw the biggest volume uptick, growing 172%, according to Credit Suisse.

"Equity ETFs still account for the bulk of ETF trading, but the growth is coming from ETFs on other asset classes," wrote the team of Credit Suisse analysts, led by Ana Avramovic, the firm's director of market structure strategy.

The second-most popular ETF by volume was the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which had almost 80 million shares traded daily. The VanEck fund was one of the best-performing sector funds in 2016; it is expected to be (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-stock-market-sectors-will-be-the-most-volatile-in-2017-goldman-sachs-2017-01-05) one of the most volatile in 2017.

Funds tied to emerging markets (EEM) and financials (XLF) were also widely traded; both saw particular interest after the election of Donald Trump in November. Financials were boosted (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-trump-rally-is-mostly-a-bank-rally-2016-11-17) by expectations of both deregulation and rising interest rates, while emerging markets fell after the election (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-blame-trumps-tough-trade-talk-for-emerging-market-selloff-2016-11-16).

-Ryan Vlastelica; 415-439-6400; [email protected]
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 11, 2017, 11:01:09 AM
A Euro costs a buck o five.


Just like freedom.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on January 11, 2017, 11:07:40 AM
Quote from: Phillip V on January 09, 2017, 08:38:33 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 09, 2017, 08:21:20 PM
The Limited is closing all of its stores. I'm surprised it took this long though. I bet you can get some deals in liquidation sales.

Strange how Wexner abandoned the original company and just continued with acquired things like Victoria's Secret instead. It's been a few years since they dumped The Limited, I think.

All these brick and mortar stores need to go away.  We will be a more happy, prosperous people getting rid of the wasted space.

Nuts to that - I want to be able to handle my merchandise before purchasing, and I want the immediacy of bring an item home as soon as I purchase it.

Online shopping has its place, but it should never be the only option.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on January 11, 2017, 11:46:15 AM
It will level out at some point I expect. Market share is getting quite big in some countries :

http://www.invespcro.com/blog/global-online-retail-spending-statistics-and-trends/

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 19, 2017, 02:24:10 PM
What news hit in the last few minutes?


Edit: Bloomberg saying a computer algo selling.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 19, 2017, 02:32:44 PM
You know, it seems like mini-flash-crashes are a periodic occurrence now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 19, 2017, 02:36:11 PM
I'm only seeing the 500 down .44%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 19, 2017, 02:40:33 PM
I'm watching a live daily chart most of the time. A big chunk of the dropoff happened in a couple seconds. Usually if it's a computer flipout, it'll go back where it was pretty fast though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 19, 2017, 04:03:17 PM
Pearson ADRs dropped 25% yesterday.  What a shit show. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 19, 2017, 04:06:48 PM
Fortunately, it doesn't appear to have triggered any of the trailing stop losses I set up just yesterday.  :P

The TSLA I bought a month ago is doing quite well, however.  :showoff:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 19, 2017, 08:02:51 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 19, 2017, 02:32:44 PM
You know, it seems like mini-flash-crashes are a periodic occurrence now.
It's pretty inevitable with algorithms running the show.  One the one hand they legitimately decrease the friction in trading.  However, that's not necessarily a good thing.  Sometimes you need a little friction to keep things stable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PJL on January 20, 2017, 01:35:47 PM
Yeah, it's like earthquakes. The plate borders that produce little earthquakes every so often may be more 'unstable' but are unlikely to produce devastating quakes. On the other hand, the ones that appear stable are more likely to produce a devastating quake when the tension does become too much.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on January 23, 2017, 03:59:57 PM
Still patiently waiting on a market dip to buy.  75% of my account is cash!  :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2017, 05:41:57 AM
My best investment of 2016 by percentage gain---Bitcoin.  :lol:

I put three hundred bucks worth in a flash drive thingie. Now it's worth six. Maybe tomorrow only two. Who knows.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2017, 03:52:28 PM
QuoteExecutives at some of the biggest Wall Street banks have sold nearly $100 million worth of stock since the presidential election, more than in that same period in any year over the past decade, according to a Wall Street Journal review of securities filings.

The share sales occurred as financial stocks soared since Nov. 9 on expectations of lighter regulation, lower taxes and pro-growth economic policies. The KBW Nasdaq Bank index is up nearly 20% since Donald Trump's victory, about triple the gains notched by the broader market.


In addition to the share sales, bank executives have sold another $350 million worth of stock to cover the cost of exercising options, filings show. That is twice the amount sold for that purpose at big banks in the year leading up to the election.

An added bonus: The postelection run-up in share prices gave value to some options that were likely to expire worthless. At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., for instance, the postelection bounce turned half a billion dollars worth of stock options into winners -- some just days before they were set to expire.

At Morgan Stanley, Chief Executive James Gorman sold shares three days after the presidential election, the first time he has done so in six years.

Mr. Gorman exercised options on 200,000 Morgan Stanley shares and sold them all at an average price of $37.70 each, filings show. He sold another 100,000 shares later the same month as the stock surged on the back of Mr. Trump's victory, and disposed of a further 285,000 late last week. Altogether, the Morgan Stanley boss realized a profit of at least $8.4 million after taking into account the cost of exercising underlying options.

Further selling may be in store, and not all big banks have filed reports on selling by all their top executives.

What's more, bank employees typically can't sell shares or exercise options in the run-up to earnings reports. The big banks finished posting their latest round of earnings last week, meaning employees will now in most cases be free to sell.

Those sales won't be as apparent, though. Banks only have to disclose trades for a handful of top executives, although some rank-and-file employees are paid largely in stock and options.

Share sales by corporate executives are often viewed by investors as a sign that insiders could be growing wary of valuations or be less confident in an increase in share prices. While that may be the case among some bank executives, the sales also follow a multiyear period in which they largely held on to moribund stock.

Some executives even doubled down during the depths of the postcrisis trough. Chief Executive James Dimon bought 500,000 J.P. Morgan Chase shares in 2012 in the wake of the so-called London Whale trading blowup. Mr. Dimon bought another 500,000 shares in early 2016 as bank stocks were sliding. Mr. Gorman bought $2 million in Morgan Stanley shares in 2011, when the stock was at less than half its current price.

Now, with share prices and valuations rising, executives are acting. At Morgan Stanley, whose shares have risen 23% since the election, executives who have to report transactions sold more than $50 million of stock between Nov. 9 and Nov. 30, filings show. Many were the fruit of options granted to executives years ago when shares were trading at half their current value.

Those options allowed their holders to buy shares at big discounts to current prices. Last week, Mr. Gorman exercised options, granted in 2013, on 285,000 shares that allowed him to buy them at $23 apiece, according to filings. He sold the shares for $42.30 each, the filings show.

For options to be worth exercising, the stock must be trading above the so-called strike price, the level at which an option-holder has the right to buy it.

Before the election, Mr. Gorman had only sold shares to cover the cost of exercising his options, holding on to much of his stock in the process. After the latest sales, Mr. Gorman still owns 1.3 million shares, worth about $56 million. He is required by the bank to continue holding 75% of all share awards as long as he is CEO.

When he bought 100,000 shares in 2011 at about $20.62 apiece, Mr. Gorman planned to sell them if and when the share price doubled from that price, which it did just after the election, according to a person familiar with his thinking.

Morgan Stanley shares ended Monday's trading at $41.96, slightly below their postelection peak.

J.P. Morgan executives who have to report the transactions collectively sold $20.5 million worth of shares since the election, filings show. At Goldman Sachs, executives of a similar level let go of nearly $25 million worth oftheir firm's stock.

Some of the selling at these banks has been from executives who have announced their retirements, including Morgan Stanley Chief Operating Officer Jim Rosenthal and Goldman Europe head Michael Sherwood. Other trades are pursuant to prearranged plans that schedule trades for certain times or price triggers. And some have occurred as once-worthless options gained value. In late 2006, Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein and other top executives were granted options with a strike price of $199.84 that would expire 10 years later.

By November 2016, with the expiration date approaching, Goldman shares were nowhere near $199.84. The week after the election, though, Goldman shares jumped above $210. The bank's shares ended Monday's trading at $232.67.

Six current Goldman Sachs executives, as well as board member and ex-finance chief David Viniar, exercised 983,000 options, filings show. That represented about $200 million worth of shares.

Without the Trump boost, those options likely would have expired worthless.

Another chunk of options set to expire later this year also have been pushed "into the money." All told, since the election, Goldman executives became eligible to buy at least $500 million worth of stock at below-market prices after a 33% rise in the share price.

There is one potential downside to the bank-stock rally: Firms recently awarded 2016 compensation based on stock that is suddenly higher in value, meaning employees received fewer shares or options that have higher exercise prices.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2017, 04:42:42 PM



Quote from: P/E ratio of S&P500
Jan 24, 2017    25.59 estimate
Jan 1, 2017    25.54
Jan 1, 2016    22.18
Jan 1, 2015    20.02
Jan 1, 2014    18.15
Jan 1, 2013    17.03
Jan 1, 2012    14.87
Jan 1, 2011    16.30
Jan 1, 2010    20.70
Jan 1, 2009    70.91
Jan 1, 2008    21.46
Jan 1, 2007    17.36
Jan 1, 2006    18.07
Jan 1, 2005    19.99
Jan 1, 2004    22.73
Jan 1, 2003    31.43
Jan 1, 2002    46.17
Jan 1, 2001    27.55
Jan 1, 2000    29.04
Jan 1, 1999    32.92
Jan 1, 1998    24.29
Jan 1, 1997    19.53
Jan 1, 1996    18.08
Jan 1, 1995    14.89
Jan 1, 1994    21.34
Jan 1, 1993    22.50
Jan 1, 1992    25.93
Jan 1, 1991    15.35
Jan 1, 1990    15.13
Jan 1, 1989    11.82
Jan 1, 1988    14.03
Jan 1, 1987    18.01
Jan 1, 1986    14.28
Jan 1, 1985    10.36
Jan 1, 1984    11.52
Jan 1, 1983    11.48
Jan 1, 1982    7.73
Jan 1, 1981    9.02
Jan 1, 1980    7.39
Jan 1, 1979    7.88
Jan 1, 1978    8.28
Jan 1, 1977    10.41
Jan 1, 1976    11.83
Jan 1, 1975    8.30
Jan 1, 1974    11.68
Jan 1, 1973    18.08
Jan 1, 1972    18.00
Jan 1, 1971    18.12
Jan 1, 1970    15.76
Jan 1, 1969    17.65
Jan 1, 1968    17.70
Jan 1, 1967    15.30
Jan 1, 1966    17.81
Jan 1, 1965    18.76
Jan 1, 1964    18.78
Jan 1, 1963    17.68
Jan 1, 1962    21.25
Jan 1, 1961    18.60
Jan 1, 1960    17.12

The really high numbers in the crash years must be from earnings cratering faster than the market. Tends to peak in the high 20s otherwise. Stocks are not a bargain right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2017, 05:50:47 PM
I wonder if some of that is explained by the high valuations of start ups with zero earnings.

I'm also curious if losses get included in the denominator or they're just zeroed out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on January 24, 2017, 06:32:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2017, 05:50:47 PM
I wonder if some of that is explained by the high valuations of start ups with zero earnings.

I'm also curious if losses get included in the denominator or they're just zeroed out.

The latest rally has been based on Trump winning, not any fundamental revenue and earnings growth.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2017, 06:36:07 PM
Quote from: Phillip V on January 24, 2017, 06:32:52 PM
The latest rally has been based on Trump winning, not any fundamental revenue and earnings growth.

It has been based on the expectation of future earnings growth in certain industries that could benefit from reduced regulation and the expectation of increased demand from deficit spending.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 24, 2017, 06:39:17 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2017, 04:42:42 PM


The really high numbers in the crash years must be from earnings cratering faster than the market. Tends to peak in the high 20s otherwise. Stocks are not a bargain right now.

You are going back to 1960. There is no reason to believe that PE ratios should be all that comparable.

-interest rates are considerably lower they they have been over the bulk of the period, and that results in naturally lower discount rates and higher valuations.
-We have shifted away from a manufacturing and brick and mortar retail based economy. In those types of industries, investments tend to be capitalized and don't depress earnings until future years. For service oriented companies, investments are often immediately expensed or only can be capitalized for short periods. Thus even with the same growth projections and cash flows - and hence valuations - the service oriented company will likely end up with a higher PE ratio.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 24, 2017, 07:00:05 PM
Are P/E ratios adjusted for dividends in any way?  And does it matter, or does the math somehow wash?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2017, 07:03:45 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2017, 07:00:05 PM
Are P/E ratios adjusted for dividends in any way?  And does it matter, or does the math somehow wash?

What do you mean?  Earnings are divided into retained earnings and dividends.  Dividends are a subset of earnings.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 24, 2017, 07:42:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2017, 07:03:45 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2017, 07:00:05 PM
Are P/E ratios adjusted for dividends in any way?  And does it matter, or does the math somehow wash?

What do you mean?  Earnings are divided into retained earnings and dividends.  Dividends are a subset of earnings.
I'm thinking about their effect on the P part.  When you pay out dividends, your P goes down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 24, 2017, 10:09:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2017, 07:00:05 PM
Are P/E ratios adjusted for dividends in any way?  And does it matter, or does the math somehow wash?

The math doesn't wash. A company will have a higher P/E ratio at the end of a year if it pays significant dividends versus if it doesn't.

But P/E ratios aren't a serious way to value a company; they are just an easily calculated and transparent benchmark. Analysts use discounted cash flow models, but those are complex and too involved to work through on a web forum.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2017, 10:45:43 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 24, 2017, 10:09:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2017, 07:00:05 PM
Are P/E ratios adjusted for dividends in any way?  And does it matter, or does the math somehow wash?

The math doesn't wash. A company will have a higher P/E ratio at the end of a year if it pays significant dividends versus if it doesn't.

But P/E ratios aren't a serious way to value a company; they are just an easily calculated and transparent benchmark. Analysts use discounted cash flow models, but those are complex and too involved to work through on a web forum.

And yet, we can still reliably use it to see if market valuations are fair or not.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 24, 2017, 10:54:20 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2017, 10:45:43 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 24, 2017, 10:09:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 24, 2017, 07:00:05 PM
Are P/E ratios adjusted for dividends in any way?  And does it matter, or does the math somehow wash?

The math doesn't wash. A company will have a higher P/E ratio at the end of a year if it pays significant dividends versus if it doesn't.

But P/E ratios aren't a serious way to value a company; they are just an easily calculated and transparent benchmark. Analysts use discounted cash flow models, but those are complex and too involved to work through on a web forum.

And yet, we can still reliably use it to see if market valuations are fair or not.

Very arguably.

Upthread you posted the PE ratio of the S&P 500 was 17.12 on 1/1/1960 versus 25.59 today. Without a lot more work regarding differential interest rates, differences in accounting treatments both due to rules changes and to changes in the types of companies in the S&P 500, changes in the risk premium of the S&P 500 due to the changing makeup of the index, tax changes, and other factors, I don't think those data points tell us much of anything.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 25, 2017, 04:06:25 PM
Finally closed over 20000. CNBC's muppets are happy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2017, 04:08:44 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 25, 2017, 04:06:25 PM
Finally closed over 20000. CNBC's muppets are happy.

I won a drink off a guy in a wheelchair who's on disability!  :w00t:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 25, 2017, 08:25:00 PM
Ed Anger portfolio update:

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7abGogJwT2eHXDKE/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 25, 2017, 11:02:44 PM
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.gettyimages.com%2Fphotos%2Ftoy-wagon-with-cash-picture-id483462455%3Fs%3D170667a&hash=e97febc2052f618edb5c6333579e578fd023de3f)

Just waiting for that crash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on January 26, 2017, 03:13:25 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 25, 2017, 08:25:00 PM
Ed Anger portfolio update:

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7abGogJwT2eHXDKE/giphy.gif)

Funny how the markets tanked whenever it looked bad in Greece, but when a chap with special needs becomes president of the US they do fine  :hmm:

One would almost think that the rational markets hypothesis was a load of cobblers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: CountDeMoney on February 08, 2017, 10:11:16 PM
QuoteFormer Piggly Wiggly employees told stock values plummet to near zero
By Warren L. Wise
Feb 7, 2017 Post and Courier
Updated 13 hrs ago

The employee-owned parent of Piggly Wiggly Carolina is now essentially worthless, and former workers will not receive stock payouts this year, according to a letter from the head of the once-prominent supermarket chain.

"The company has no positive value," said David R. Schools, president of Mount Pleasant-based Greenbax Enterprises, in a recent mailing to participants in the employee stock ownership plan.

Schools said an outside firm determines the value of the business each year and, because of financial obligations of Greenbax and the negative value of its assets, "there will be no ... distribution this year based on share value."

Joe Pinto, a former employee of Piggly Wiggly for nearly 40 years, said he wasn't surprised that the value of the stock has been nearly wiped out.

"We are terribly, terribly disappointed," the West Ashley resident said Tuesday.

Pinto declined to say how much he has lost with the company's collapse, but he noted at one point Greenbax shares were valued at more than $700 each.

While he continues to earn an income by working for a different company, he said he feels sorry for all of the Piggly Wiggly employees who counted on the stock plan for retirement and now have nothing.

"This is all so many had," Pinto said.

The letter to shareholders comes a year after a group of former employees sued the grocer in federal court, seeking millions of dollars in lost retirement money and alleging poor decisions and inaction by top company executives, including Schools, led to the company's ruin.

The pending case, representing a group that could be larger than 1,000 people, alleges that senior officials with the grocer and Greenbax enriched themselves while the value of the employee-owned stock plan plummeted by nearly 90 percent over eight years, "devastating the retirement accounts of thousands of company employees."

Schools declined further comment on the stock shares' negative value Tuesday.

The 83-page lawsuit, which is seeking class-action status, estimates that the stock value skidded from $88.7 million in 2008 to $9 million in 2015. The CEO's letter puts the stock plan's value at just under $457,000 for the annual period that ended March 31, 2016.


The employee-owned Piggly Wiggly franchise - with a tagline of "Local Since Forever" in recent years - was established in downtown Charleston 60 years ago. The beginning of the end came in 2013, when the company began selling assets and closing stores after encountering serious financial problems. Bi-Lo and Harris Teeter, longtime rivals of Piggly Wiggly, acquired most of the chain's Lowcountry supermarkets. The last remaining company-owned store in the Charleston area - in Hollywood - was sold last spring.

Also last year, Greenbax sold 14 shopping centers in South Carolina and Georgia, including three in the Charleston area, to a Virginia-based real estate company for $71 million.

"Most assets have been liquidated," Schools said in his letter. "Remaining are partnerships in two real estate parcels and restricted cash."

Details about the land are not included in the letter. The restricted cash refers to $4 million held mostly by the S.C. Workers' Compensation Commission as collateral to service open claims. The rest of the money is with the Board of Workers' Compensation in Georgia, where Piggly Wiggly operated some stores.

Schools said Greenbax applied to the South Carolina agency to release all or some of the cash collateral because it believed the amount being held was "excessive based on our claim liability," but that request was denied.

The inability to tap into those funds "greatly reduced the value of Greenbax," Schools said in the letter. The company can request that the money be released just once every 12 months, so it must wait until the fall to reapply, he said.

Schools also said Greenbax continues to incur expenses such as real estate leases, including rent payments for stores that are now closed.

"The leases are those for which we tried to negotiate reasonable exits, but were unable to do so," he said.

Schools said the company and its subsidiaries will continue to sell off assets "to wind-down the business." He also said Greenbax will try to eliminate its overhead expenses "so that, possibly, distributions can be made to ... participants in the future."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 17, 2017, 05:34:29 PM
Yi's Lending Club account update, one year (more or less) anniversary.

2/14/16 I moved five large into my account, took a couple days for the transfer to hit, so let's say today.

Today my Adjusted Account Value is $5,247.90. By simple math that's a yield of 4.958%. The "adjusted" refers to partial write downs of loans that are currently late. 

I have two loans that are in Grace Period (up to 15 days late) with a remaining face value of $41.56, adjusted down to $30.75.
I have nine loans that are late 31-160 days with a face value of $203.91 and an adjusted value of $46.90.
I have 13 loans fully charged off (defaulted) with a face value of $303.82 and an adjusted value of 0. Duh.

Lending Club reports my Adjusted Net Annualized Return as 5.50%, but what I'm pretty sure they're not taking into account is all the time your cash is sitting idle.  I.e. minimum loan is $25, so anything <25 the cash is just sitting there. Also once a loan request gets fully matched with funding it sits there for a couple days "processing."

In contrast to Granny Valma with his milksop A's and B's, I opted for the automated allocation heavy on C's, D's, and E's.  Then once most of my money had been allocated I switched off automatic allocation, but tried to mimic it manually, because I found early that the automatic allocation put a lot of money into loans that never closed, because not enough other lenders signed up for it.

c. 5% is a reasonable yield, and sure beats the hell out of CD rates, but I was expecting and hoping for better, maybe 7.

I definitely think if someone had sent me a referral email so I could get that $75 bonus that first year yield would look a lot sweeter.

I'm going to play out the string with my original investment (i.e. keep plowing profits back into new loans) because it is kind of fun. I am Shylock, with no ability to collect a pound of flesh. However my biggest worry is what will happen if we hit a recession and unemployment pops.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on February 17, 2017, 06:00:08 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 25, 2017, 08:25:00 PM
Ed Anger portfolio update:

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7abGogJwT2eHXDKE/giphy.gif)

You've become a doorman?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 17, 2017, 07:04:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 17, 2017, 05:34:29 PM
In contrast to Granny Valma with his milksop A's and B's, I opted for the automated allocation heavy on C's, D's, and E's.

I wanted a firm and secure foundation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 17, 2017, 07:16:23 PM
I'm glad I stuck with Boeing.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 17, 2017, 07:30:57 PM
Glad I held on to Square.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2017, 04:02:26 PM
Etrade is frozen up and not updating today's prices.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2017, 04:07:14 PM
Markets closed. :face:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on February 20, 2017, 04:47:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2017, 04:07:14 PM
Markets closed. :face:

"Why you forget my birthday?"

(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Farchives.wdet.org%2Fmedia%2F_versions_%2Fdetroit_today_images%2Fyoung_george_washington_fb_small.jpg&hash=bd925a242e10ccdb5db0deb1ebb774a0213045a5)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2017, 01:36:11 PM
Big pop for Square today. :punk:

Thanks Donald.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 23, 2017, 09:32:23 PM
MAH TSLA  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on February 23, 2017, 09:35:10 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 23, 2017, 09:32:23 PM
MAH TSLA  :(

Elon Musk is a overrated faggot.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2017, 05:00:56 PM
Starting to get a little antsy about this perky market. I'm thinking if that profit repatriation (partial?) amnesty doesn't materialize we're fooked.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 01, 2017, 06:08:12 PM
It has been very subdued on the FTSE-100 compared to the NYSE. Taking a 5-year horizon it is only +20% compared to +60%. Plus £ has fallen against the $  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 15, 2017, 04:04:12 PM
So bigly
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 15, 2017, 07:48:00 PM
Long Live the Federal Reserve!  YES to interest rate hikes!!!!1111 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 15, 2017, 07:59:42 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 15, 2017, 07:48:00 PM
Long Live the Federal Reserve!  YES to interest rate hikes!!!!1111

Easy. If your erection lasts more than four hours, see a doctor.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Phillip V on March 15, 2017, 11:03:41 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 15, 2017, 07:48:00 PM
Long Live the Federal Reserve!  YES to interest rate hikes!!!!1111 

The market has been very happy about interest rate increases!  The Fed has remarkably been a stabilizing force, or should I move more towards cash?



:hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 27, 2017, 02:33:18 PM
All my foreign ETFs that got pounded by the strong dollar (and various fuckups) have been doing rather well under the Trumpenreich.  Almost out of the red.  Can't understand it.  Fed has raised rates, said they will raise more, which will strengthen dollar.  Threat of trade wars should hurt.

Any ideas?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on March 27, 2017, 04:54:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 27, 2017, 02:33:18 PM
All my foreign ETFs that got pounded by the strong dollar (and various fuckups) have been doing rather well under the Trumpenreich.  Almost out of the red.  Can't understand it.  Fed has raised rates, said they will raise more, which will strengthen dollar.  Threat of trade wars should hurt.

Any ideas?

Irrational exuberance?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on March 27, 2017, 05:51:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 27, 2017, 02:33:18 PM
All my foreign ETFs that got pounded by the strong dollar (and various fuckups) have been doing rather well under the Trumpenreich.  Almost out of the red.  Can't understand it.  Fed has raised rates, said they will raise more, which will strengthen dollar.  Threat of trade wars should hurt.

Any ideas?

Bond and stock markets had been proceeding under contradictory assumptions - stocks had gone up on the assumption of a successful growth agenda, but bonds yields kept low despite Fed action on the assumption that the economy continued to face significant risks.  Right now it looks like those contradictions are being resolved in favor of the bond bulls, with the stock market rally faltering.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on April 03, 2017, 07:23:55 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 23, 2017, 09:32:23 PM
MAH TSLA  :(

MAH TSLA.  :)

I just wish I had bought more of it last week.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 03, 2017, 07:32:08 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 23, 2017, 09:35:10 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 23, 2017, 09:32:23 PM
MAH TSLA  :(

Elon Musk is a overrated faggot.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on April 03, 2017, 07:32:50 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 03, 2017, 07:32:08 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on February 23, 2017, 09:35:10 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 23, 2017, 09:32:23 PM
MAH TSLA  :(

Elon Musk is a overrated faggot.

I am fine with that, as long as the market holds that belief until I sell at an opportune time.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 25, 2017, 07:25:18 PM
I HAVE FULL NASDAQ ERECTION
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on April 25, 2017, 10:20:32 PM
(and just to trigger Anger's Musk-hate a bit...)

WOO TSLA  :w00t:

Though it is likely grossly overvalued, which is why I now have a pretty tight trailing stop-loss sell order on it.

Though over time, my real big winner stock has been AMAT

And...MAH REITS :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Malthus on April 26, 2017, 11:07:08 AM
My portfolio has done well over the past year. I'm up 13%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 26, 2017, 03:55:21 PM
Online brokers are in a price war.  Etrade recently dropped its price to 6.49, and I just saw an add for 4.49.  I figure the market will have to consolidate at some point.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on June 10, 2017, 07:53:29 PM
Seedy will be pleased to know I took a minor shot to the gut when the NASDAQ shit the bed. I had my triggers set because I knew it wouldn't last but still.....

I need food stamps.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 22, 2017, 02:20:18 PM
For the first time a company I own shares in is being bought out.  How does this play out?  Do I just sit back, then one day a new ticker will show up in my account?  Or cash?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 22, 2017, 02:28:10 PM
Bought by Enel, a Guinea-wop company.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 11, 2017, 06:30:26 PM
QuoteMore than half of fund families saw outflows so far this year

In the world of asset management, it increasingly seems like there's Vanguard, and then there's everyone else.

The investment management giant has taken in more than $177.3 billion in inflows across its products thus far in 2017, according to Morningstar data. That's about as much as its 10 closest competitors--combined.

The losers amid Vanguard's victory include such Wall Street titans as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), all of which have seen notable outflows this year.

Vanguard's dominance is a byproduct of investors moving en masse to passive products (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/passive-investing-a-winner-in-2016-shows-no-sign-of-stopping-2016-12-27), which simply track an index like the S&P 500 , as opposed to actively managed products, which aim to outperform such indexes through portfolio managers selecting the securities held. Data have repeatedly shown that passive funds perform better than active ones, particularly over the long term. Just as importantly, passive funds typically have much lower fees than their active counterparts. Vanguard funds, which are among the cheapest in the industry, can be had for as little as 4 basis points, or $4 for every $10,000 invested.

While Vanguard does offer actively managed funds--as well as "smart beta" funds, which use rules to deliver such strategies as "growth," "value," or "low volatility"--the overwhelming trend has been to passive. Last year, active funds as an overall category saw outflows of $285.2 billion while passive funds attracted inflows of $428.7 billion. This rotation has been occurring for at least 10 years.

According to Morningstar data, the flows into Vanguard products--which lifted its total assets to $3.826 trillion--were nearly double that of the second-place finisher, iShares, another giant in passive strategies, where inflows were about $94 billion.

Morningstar's flow data, which is through the end of May, looks at both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, an investment structure that has become increasingly popular (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-etf-industry-became-a-4-trillion-juggernaut-2017-05-10). Not only are ETFs dominated by passive strategies, but they are both cheaper and more tax efficient than equivalent mutual funds.

Read: An industry icon explains how Enron's fall sparked the ETF explosion (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/an-industry-icon-explains-how-enrons-fall-sparked-the-etf-explosion-2017-06-02)

According to FactSet, the 10 equity ETFs with the largest year-to-date inflows are all iShares or Vanguard products, with five funds from each sponsor seeing the greatest adoption. Of the top 20 stock funds, 17 come from either one or the other. (Of the remaining three, one comes from Charles Schwab, while another is sponsored by SPDR State Street Global Advisors and the third is from PowerShares.) A similar trend is seen in fixed-income ETFs, where all the top 12 funds are either iShares or Vanguard products.

The iShares suite is owned by BlackRock (BLK), which--separate from iShares--had inflows of $4.54 billion thus far this year.

Morningstar looked at products from 852 fund families, and of those, only five had inflows of more than $10 billion over the time period considered. (In addition to Vanguard and iShares, they were Dimensional Fund Advisors, Pimco, and Schwab ETFs.) More than half the fund families--439, amounting to 51.5%--had outflows.

Among the families with the biggest redemptions, Franklin Templeton Investments led the way with $11.24 billion in outflows. The firm couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

Wells Fargo funds had outflows of $5.25 billion thus far this year, the fifth-highest of any firm. The redemptions lowered the assets held by Wells funds to $88.3 billion.

Other major names have also seen outflows in 2017. J.P. Morgan funds have seen a combined $3.79 billion in outflows this year, lowering its assets to $285.75 billion, while $332.9 million has been pulled from Goldman Sachs funds.

According to a report by the Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/147bd89c-6304-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1), Goldman Sachs Asset Management was the worst-selling fund manager globally thus far in 2017. The asset manager had outflows of $26.7 billion, per the FT, almost twice the rate of Federated Investors, the second-worst selling house.

"By their nature, money market fund flows in any short period are a misleading measure of our business or longer term performance for clients," a Goldman spokesperson told the FT.

While Goldman funds overall saw outflows, the firm did see increased adoption of its ETF lineup. One fund, the Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF (GSLC), had inflows of $733.4 million thus far this year, according to FactSet. Two other ETFs also had year-to-date inflows above $150 million.

SPDR State Street Global Advisors, the third major player in the passive arena, bucked the trend of Vanguard and iShares, showing outflows of about $504 million in 2017. This is almost entirely due to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which has had outflows of nearly $7.5 billion thus far this year. The SPY, the largest and most actively traded ETF on the market, is frequently used as a short-term holding or a vehicle for hedging by investors. Its flows fluctuate wildly on a day-to-day basis.

People are beginning to see the light.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 15, 2017, 11:36:02 AM
QuoteMW UPDATE: ETF fee war expands, bringing more pain to active managers

Sep 15, 2017 11:13:00 (ET)

By Ryan Vlastelica

Pressure on 'smart beta' fees is credit negative: Moody's

The ETF fee war is great for investors, saving them millions of dollars, but it's created a headwind for traditional active managers that's expected to intensify.

This month alone has seen two entrants into the exchange-traded funds marketplace that could radically change the fee equation across the industry, putting ever more revenue pressure on traditional managers, who have been struggling to retain assets amid a broader shift to low-fee index funds (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/passive-investing-a-winner-in-2016-shows-no-sign-of-stopping-2016-12-27).

At the start of the month, the GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR) was launched with an expense ratio of 0.2%, or $20 for every $10,000 invested. That's half the fee charged by the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), by far the biggest gold fund on the market, and it also undercut the 0.25% charged by the iShares Gold Trust (IAU).

Read more:Quoting Bond villain, new gold ETF takes aim at rivals on fees (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/quoting-bond-villain-new-gold-etf-takes-aim-at-rivals-on-fees-2017-08-31)

The market for U.S.-listed commodity-based ETFs isn't huge--it has about $70 billion in assets, according to FactSet data, compared with nearly $2.5 trillion in equity funds--so that particular case may only have a limited impact. On Monday, however, Goldman Sachs filed for a fund that track an equally weighted index of large cap stocks. The ETF will only cost 0.09%, dramatically lower than the similar Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which goes for 0.2%.

Goldman's "move expands the ETF price war beyond plain vanilla ETFs into smart-beta ETFs, implying that the industry's higher pricing assumptions for smart-beta products will not hold," wrote Stephen Tu, a senior analyst at Moody's, in a Monday note. He added that the smart beta price war was a credit negative for traditional active equity managers.

"Smart beta" is a category of ETF that sits midway between passive funds--which track an index like the S&P, holding what it does, and in the same proportion--and active funds, where the holdings are individually selected by a portfolio manager. While these funds, also known as "strategic beta," do track an index, the components of many are not weighted by their market capitalization, and they are designed to do better than the traditional index over time. The indexes tracked by smart-beta funds are developed through rules that tilt toward such strategies as "value" or "growth."

Tu noted that traditional active managers, such as Legg Mason (LM), Franklin Resources (BEN) and Janus (JHG), have seen "steadily declining market share" as a result of the move to passive funds. According to Morningstar, active funds saw outflows of $285.2 billion in 2016; passive funds attracted inflows of $428.7 billion.

Related:Feeling bullish on the ETF industry? There's an ETF for that (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feeling-bullish-on-the-etf-industry-theres-an-etf-for-that-2017-04-20)

See also: These 10 ETFs sucked up half of all inflows in August (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-10-etfs-sucked-up-half-of-all-inflows-in-august-2017-09-11)

To combat this, such managers have been investing in smart-beta products, which they viewed as "a product category with which they could grow assets without too much sacrifice on revenue," Tu wrote.

Goldman's aggressively low fee could change that equation. Currently, most smart-beta products have been priced between 0.24% and 0.39%, a pricing range that at the high end is more than four times more expensive than Goldman's proposed fund.

Currently, the 100 largest smart-beta funds have an average expense ratio of 0.27%, although this is heavily impacted by Vanguard, which has been the big winner of the shift to passive funds and other low-fee products. Excluding Vanguard, the average ratio for the largest 100 funds is 0.33%.

Read:Investors flock to Vanguard funds, dump Goldman, Wells Fargo, and others (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-flock-to-vanguard-funds-dump-goldman-wells-fargo-and-others-2017-07-11)

"The plain vanilla ETF category has experienced a severe price war in which products pricing has migrated toward zero basis points, and this aggressive price competition is migrating up toward the smart-beta category," Tu wrote. "As a result, much of the hope and investment traditional managers placed into smart beta as a product salvation may be at risk. This is negative for traditional active managers that move into this space and expect to charge active light management fees, but will rather face a more index-like pricing environment."

Don't miss:How the bond industry changed, 15 years after the first fixed-income ETF (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-bond-industry-changed-15-years-after-the-first-fixed-income-etf-2017-08-03)

While investors don't care about fees to the exclusion of all other factors--for example, tracking error, tradability, and liquidity--the dominant trend in recent years has been to the cheapest funds on the market. According to data from Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/how-low-can-they-go-goldman-cuts-smart-beta-fees-to-a-new-level), ETFs that charge between 0% and 0.1% have had inflows of nearly $250 billion thus far this year (through the end of August). Funds charging between 0.21% and 0.3% have seen inflows of less than $25 billion.

According to the Investment Company Institute, expense ratios for U.S. equity ETFs overall dropped by nearly a third between 2009 and 2016 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-much-etf-fees-have-dropped-since-the-financial-crisis-2017-05-18), falling 32% to 23 basis points (or 0.23% of assets) on average, from 34 basis points. In June, Morgan Stanley estimated that fees could fall an additional 10% to 15% (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-predicts-fees-for-mutual-funds-etfs-falling-a-further-10-15-2017-06-01) over the coming three to five years.

Moody's currently rates Legg Mason as Baa1 negative, Franklin as A1 negative and Janus as Baa3 positive. Tu also said that falling smart-beta fees would be a negative for existing managers in the space, "which are likely to respond with price cuts on existing products."

Among those, Invesco Ltd. is rated A2 stable while both BlackRock Inc. (BLK) and State Street Corp. (STT) are rated A1 positive. BlackRock operates the iShares suite of products and has the largest market share of the ETF space. State Street sponsors the SPDR family of funds, which includes the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), the oldest and largest ETF on the market.

-Ryan Vlastelica; 415-439-6400; [email protected]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

tldnr: fees for index funds have been declining, now "smart-beta" funds are cheaper too, active funds getting clobbered.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 03, 2017, 09:42:54 PM
I'm pulling the plug on my Lending Club experiment.  Not pulling the plug per se, but I've stopped rolling over my incoming payments.  I caught a bad spell and my yield is down to about 4%.  That's way less than the 6-8 I signed up for.  And that's at a time of full employment.  I can only guess what will happen to these loans if a recession hits.

How're you doing Valmy?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on October 03, 2017, 09:57:08 PM
I read an article the other day saying that Lending Club was overrun by bots and third world research slaves snapping up the best loans before the average Joe can even review 'em.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on October 03, 2017, 10:00:14 PM
Huh. I am still finding good notes. How recent is this?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 03, 2017, 10:30:09 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 03, 2017, 10:00:14 PM
Huh. I am still finding good notes. How recent is this?

Bout two months running.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 03, 2017, 11:09:48 PM
Quote from: Camerus on October 03, 2017, 09:57:08 PM
I read an article the other day saying that Lending Club was overrun by bots and third world research slaves snapping up the best loans before the average Joe can even review 'em.
That's what I would expect.  If you have a way to make a buck online by analyzing information better than competition, and there is an easy way to access that flow of information programmatically, botting will become inevitable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 11, 2017, 08:29:13 AM
I am thinking about putting a little money (by that I mean really little) into a couple of broad (probably index-based) ETFs.

Will this move immediately trigger the burst of the current global stock-price bubble, or am I safe to do so?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 11, 2017, 03:48:54 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 11, 2017, 08:29:13 AM
I am thinking about putting a little money (by that I mean really little) into a couple of broad (probably index-based) ETFs.

Will this move immediately trigger the burst of the current global stock-price bubble, or am I safe to do so?

The way I look at it, after the subprime crash it took two years to regain the previous high.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on October 11, 2017, 04:52:07 PM
It depends on what your investment horizon is.  If you plan on buying and selling in several decades, I say go for it.

Yes, there are a number of indicators suggesting that stocks are reaching historically dangerous levels of overvaluation.  That certainly has me hesitating a bit, which is why I'm rebalancing some of my equities to bonds at the end of this year (not by much, just altering the balance by a couple percentage points) and slightly decreasing my US ETF in favour of international markets – though again, only by a couple percentage points, since I'm not sure international markets wouldn't crater anyway in the event of a US crash.  On the other hand, timing the market is virtually impossible for most mortals, which is why a buy and hold ETF approach is better for most individual investors.

Yi's observation about the Great Recession is correct.  But there have definitely been much longer bear markets in recent history than the Great Recession's.   Just by way of a brief example, using historic S&P 500 returns per https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-returns-by-year-2388543, if you had $1000 invested during the tech bubble in 2000, your money wouldn't have regained its value until the end of 2006 (where it would be worth ~ $1082) ... only to be wiped away again by the Great Recession.  You wouldn't be in the black again until the end of 2010, where it would be worth $1047.  That's around a decade of zero growth, not to mention a lot of anxiety to go with it.  Of course, if you were still holding it by the end of 2016, it would be worth $2,118 – and would be worth even more as of today's date. Nor would you hopefully be invested solely in an S&P 500 index.

All that is to say market timing is probably impossible, but if you're not going to be selling in several decades anyway, then it's hard for an individual investor to beat the ease and historic success of ETFs (as measured by historic index performance).  Just make sure your portfolio is diversified across a number of global markets and that you're holding enough bonds in there to reflect your risk tolerance / age.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 12, 2017, 08:59:08 AM
Thanks.

I wonder how somebody with my meager means could bet against the UK housing market. It seems it is getting into a proper stall, and with now less subsidy on buy-to-let (who the hell thought that was a good idea anyways?) and UK interest rate hike continuously hinted at, a fall is pretty much guaranteed once the Brexit disaster properly unravels.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 12, 2017, 10:09:50 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 12, 2017, 08:59:08 AM
Thanks.

I wonder how somebody with my meager means could bet against the UK housing market. It seems it is getting into a proper stall, and with now less subsidy on buy-to-let (who the hell thought that was a good idea anyways?) and UK interest rate hike continuously hinted at, a fall is pretty much guaranteed once the Brexit disaster properly unravels.

I had always suspected, and had it confirmed in an Economist article, that it's difficult if not impossible to short real estate.

That being said, I suggest you think about your investing goals.  I've talked to a couple guys and I've heard the same story a couple times: they want to get a big hit quick.  One guy was talking about gold, the other about bitcoin.  I think you dicked around with options a while back, no?  That's speculation.  You could hit, or could lose it all.  What I recommend instead is that you think about plugging your money into boring old stocks, reinvesting your dividends, and look to make 6-8% a year over the long haul.  It's not sexy, but that's how you make your money grow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 12, 2017, 10:12:56 AM
Good point
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 20, 2017, 01:26:43 PM
Sketchers just popped 40%. :punk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 22, 2017, 03:44:49 AM
@Tamas

One useful thing is that most of the FTSE-100 companies are large multinationals, their performance is independent of the UK economy's performance (except insofar as a bad performance by the UK impacts the world economy). Many of them pay dividends in US$ (converted on the day into £). The consequence is that they can be used as a useful hedge against poor performance of the UK, great if your main source of income is UK-based.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 23, 2017, 05:46:33 AM
Thanks RH.

Having opened an IG account, I am thinking of starting off with an FTSE100 ETF (maybe the one dealing with dividend stocks) and shorting the UK Property UCTIS ETF. I am just looking into hidden costs of holding a short position over time - I used to do that in CFDs when I was dicking around with those, but never with proper shares. That's a short position I'd be comfortable to sit on for quite a while.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 23, 2017, 06:48:01 AM
Never mind, I can't short on normal stocks :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 23, 2017, 10:00:06 AM
So, I guess I have my plan ready: most of my monthly savings go automatically to two regular saving accounts as they have been doing so (two accounts due to the "help to buy" ISA - given enough time government help will allow us pick up an extra furniture or two!).

From the previously accumulated savings, most will go into some kind of bond (I am yet to research that), the rest (and it ain't much, trust me) went to my freshly created stocks ISA - half into a FTSE100 ETF, the other half went into adventure: Lloyds shares  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 23, 2017, 11:13:56 AM
Ah yes, I have some Lloyds shares.

At the moment the dividend runs at about 6% and, all being well, their profits will increase and there will be potential capital gains.

Or there might be another financial crisis  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 23, 2017, 11:30:39 AM
Yes I read they should benefit from the rate hike, and have a nice dividend, and many analysts feel they'll be growing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on October 24, 2017, 07:47:07 PM
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FeminineDiscreteFlyinglemur-small.gif)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 25, 2017, 03:50:02 AM
Slightly better GDP result for the UK than expected, and I see my shares dip a bit. Weird. Oh well, I'll eventually get used to not checking them daily.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 25, 2017, 04:03:55 AM
I believe the story is the GDP number raises the possibility of an interest rate hike, thus depressing stocks.

Why not check every day?  I do.  It's like watching gold fish in a tank.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 25, 2017, 04:04:56 AM
Oh, and don't forget to turn on dividend reinvestment, if that's a thing for youse guys, which I assume it is.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 25, 2017, 04:06:15 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 25, 2017, 04:03:55 AM
I believe the story is the GDP number raises the possibility of an interest rate hike, thus depressing stocks.

Why not check every day?  I do.  It's like watching gold fish in a tank.  :)

Well, I am just worried my gambling instinct get triggered. :) But yeah its fun. Will be more fun when I have some meaningful amount of money there in a couple of years.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 25, 2017, 04:11:29 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 25, 2017, 04:04:56 AM
Oh, and don't forget to turn on dividend reinvestment, if that's a thing for youse guys, which I assume it is.

Thanks! I have checked, looks like they are working on implementing it. I will have ridiculously meagre dividends for a while so I can wait.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on October 25, 2017, 04:39:52 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 25, 2017, 03:50:02 AM
Slightly better GDP result for the UK than expected, and I see my shares dip a bit. Weird. Oh well, I'll eventually get used to not checking them daily.  :D

The Tamas Effect

Lloyds just issued some good Q3 results and interest rates are likely to rise (also deemed good for the bank) but the shares fall  :hmm:

What has changed in the past few days  :hmm: ???
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 25, 2017, 04:50:39 AM
 :lol:

I am up 1.65% on Lloyds at this moment :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 25, 2017, 06:00:22 PM
I'm looking around for some cap gains to dump to offset this dog of a stock I had that got bought out by the Eyetalians, but all my big winners are in my IRA.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on November 02, 2017, 07:05:33 AM
Why would Lloyds fall right after the rate hike decision?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on November 02, 2017, 07:33:13 AM
One possibility is that stocks, especially in a market that may be overpriced, can become relatively less attractive to bonds if bond yields become higher. This is especially true for dividend stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 27, 2017, 07:03:34 PM
Thinking about putting the 2018 IRA money into Tencent.  Any thoughts?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on December 27, 2017, 10:04:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 27, 2017, 07:03:34 PM
Thinking about putting the 2018 IRA money into Tencent.  Any thoughts?

Go for whoever make Armalites.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 27, 2017, 10:20:41 PM
Parent company Strategic Armory Corporation is privately held afaict mongers. :nerd:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 30, 2017, 12:22:55 AM
I might have access to CBE.  I wanna short bitcoin.  Anyone traded futures before?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 30, 2017, 01:07:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 30, 2017, 12:22:55 AM
I might have access to CBE.  I wanna short bitcoin.  Anyone traded futures before?
You're asking the wrong crowd.  You need to ask around in the homeless shelter.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 19, 2018, 06:46:23 PM
Thanks for talking me out of it DGuller.  :D

Anyone else getting leery about the frothiness of the market?  Anyone doing anything about it, or already cashed out?  I remember someone, I think it was the Flipican, did early in the Trump admin.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 19, 2018, 07:28:11 PM
I'm very leery.  I think we're living in the new age of economics, where instead of having inflation we have asset bubbles.  This probably has to do with increasing wealth inequality, where all the extra money from overheating economy winds up in the pockets of people who already have more than enough for spending.

I have no idea what to do about it, though.  It's one thing to know that something is a bubble, it's another thing to make a correct financial decision with that knowledge.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 19, 2018, 07:48:09 PM
I dunno...that's a fair point, but the recent announcement from Apple is also encouraging...if other companies follow a similar path.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 19, 2018, 08:04:51 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 19, 2018, 07:48:09 PM
I dunno...that's a fair point, but the recent announcement from Apple is also encouraging...if other companies follow a similar path.

What did they say?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 19, 2018, 08:13:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 19, 2018, 08:04:51 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 19, 2018, 07:48:09 PM
I dunno...that's a fair point, but the recent announcement from Apple is also encouraging...if other companies follow a similar path.

What did they say?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2018/01/17/apple-to-open-new-u-s-campus-pledges-to-bring-350-billion-and-20000-jobs-to-the-u-s-within-next-five-years/?utm_term=.445914fe5f63
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 19, 2018, 08:16:12 PM
Pay walled!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 19, 2018, 08:19:46 PM
Eh?  Opening sites in your "incognito window" defeat most of those.

Though TWP doesn't even hit me up for that in regular Chrome.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on January 19, 2018, 08:22:25 PM
I look at it as follows... Yes, there are many indicators the market is overvalued.  But even so, there are encouraging signs suggestive of continued good performance into the near future. Thus, as always, there is simply no way to know how the market is going to perform this year. One might as well read sheep entrails to predict the events of the coming lunar year.

Personally, I am reducing my exposure to equities moderately, but not by very much... and also making sure I'm globally diversified for whatever that's worth. After all, the historic odds still are in favour of a positive year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 19, 2018, 08:36:25 PM
Quote from: Camerus on January 19, 2018, 08:22:25 PM
I look at it as follows... Yes, there are many indicators the market is overvalued.  But even so, there are encouraging signs suggestive of continued good performance into the near future. Thus, as always, there is simply no way to know how the market is going to perform this year. One might as well read sheep entrails to predict the events of the coming lunar year.

Personally, I am reducing my exposure to equities moderately, but not by very much... and also making sure I'm globally diversified for whatever that's worth. After all, the historic odds still are in favour of a positive year.

A counterargument to this line of reasoning is that even though if you cash out you lose X amount of possible future upside, that is all upside that only further increases the irrational valuations.  *IF* a future correction reverts the market to historical PE, you're still better off cashing out now.

A counterargument to that counterargument is that (at least IMO) a large part of that valuation is coming from low profit or loss-making startup or semistartup companies.  Has it been usual in the past for loss making startups to go public?  If anyone knows of an article directly addressing this point I would be appreciative.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on January 20, 2018, 09:27:33 AM
Once again though, you're still left with trying to figure out to what extent the valuations are "irrational", when the market correction will occur, and how significantly.  IMO this is for all intents and purposes impossible to do with much reliability.

After all, you can go back at any point over the past few years of this bull for example and find intelligent and convincing warnings of impending corrections that never materialized, beyond at worst a few blips. You would have lost out on significant growth had you pulled out then, irrational or no.

The picture is further complicated by strong global stock performance and thus the immense number of variables.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 21, 2018, 08:20:06 PM
I made a move into gold when it was in the 1200's/oz. I can now buy off small barbarian tribes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Alcibiades on January 22, 2018, 02:52:02 AM
Quote from: Ed Anger on January 21, 2018, 08:20:06 PM
I made a move into gold when it was in the 1200's/oz. I can now buy off small barbarian tribes.

(https://i.gyazo.com/251b25695ac9338e29f6bbdf78179327.png)


:hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 22, 2018, 06:33:54 AM
To be fair even a shop clerk in the western world could probably buy himself an African village with his savings, if he really wanted to.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 22, 2018, 09:30:35 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 22, 2018, 06:33:54 AM
To be fair even a shop clerk in the western world could probably buy himself an African village with his savings, if he really wanted to.

:blink:

"You can take the Hungarian out of the village, but you can't take the village out of the him".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 22, 2018, 09:44:13 AM
Quote from: mongers on January 22, 2018, 09:30:35 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 22, 2018, 06:33:54 AM
To be fair even a shop clerk in the western world could probably buy himself an African village with his savings, if he really wanted to.

:blink:

"You can take the Hungarian out of the village, but you can't take the village out of the him".

What? Now I can't even point out that there are deprived areas in Africa? You might be willing to ignore their plight in your stronghold of privilege, but I won't.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 12:52:05 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 22, 2018, 06:33:54 AM
To be fair even a shop clerk in the western world could probably buy himself an African village with his savings, if he really wanted to.

Alcibiades' point was that Boner is only up 100/ounce.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 22, 2018, 01:15:07 PM
Are African villages actually owned by anyone?  How can you buy something that is not owned?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on January 22, 2018, 02:30:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 22, 2018, 01:15:07 PM
Are African villages actually owned by anyone?  How can you buy something that is not owned?

I imagine it depends on the village. I doubt there is one pan-African village ownership system.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 22, 2018, 02:44:27 PM
There are communal land ownership systems.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 22, 2018, 03:29:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 22, 2018, 02:30:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 22, 2018, 01:15:07 PM
Are African villages actually owned by anyone?  How can you buy something that is not owned?

I imagine it depends on the village. I doubt there is one pan-African village ownership system.

Indeed, and given the cultural diversity and range of colonial influences, I suspect you'd find a huge range of ownership/legal situations as regard land ownership.

A hint for Tamas, many retail clerks in the Western world now only make minimum wage, and I think plenty of them could be on top-up benefits, so who would these people be able to afford nearly all capital expenditures let along land and multiply buildings.

Incidentally the last documentary I saw set in Africa was a couple of weeks ago, the issue at hand was land deputes in Tanzania between the generations of families, the main case involved ten acres of land near the village, that iirc amounted to $20,000. So not exactly pocket change is it.

After all sorts of tactics to drive off/discredit the inheriting daughter, the case was solve through negotiation and the daughter got her money, maybe not full value, and she was reconciled with the wider family. I think the uncle was at fault.

Tamas assertion only make sense if you have a Trumpian view of the world.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 03:50:48 PM
Anyone else own Square?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 22, 2018, 04:09:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 03:50:48 PM
Anyone else own Square?

Space?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 04:11:24 PM
Quote from: mongers on January 22, 2018, 04:09:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 03:50:48 PM
Anyone else own Square?

Space?

Inc.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 22, 2018, 04:21:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 04:11:24 PM
Quote from: mongers on January 22, 2018, 04:09:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 03:50:48 PM
Anyone else own Square?

Space?

Inc.

It's the web design portal I keep hearing advertised during some US originated podcasts?

If so, doesn't sound anything special.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 04:30:02 PM
Quote from: mongers on January 22, 2018, 04:21:21 PM
It's the web design portal I keep hearing advertised during some US originated podcasts?

If so, doesn't sound anything special.

Different.  Two year old startup that began with plastic card readers that attached to your handie so that small retailers could accept credit cards.

My understanding is they started operating in You Kay, so next time you're at the farmers' market see if any vendors have cell phones with little white plastic boxes sticking out the top.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 05:12:07 PM
And if you do see them, buy some turnips with a card so I can get a cut.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 22, 2018, 05:16:42 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 04:30:02 PM
Quote from: mongers on January 22, 2018, 04:21:21 PM
It's the web design portal I keep hearing advertised during some US originated podcasts?

If so, doesn't sound anything special.

Different.  Two year old startup that began with plastic card readers that attached to your handie so that small retailers could accept credit cards.

My understanding is they started operating in You Kay, so next time you're at the farmers' market see if any vendors have cell phones with little white plastic boxes sticking out the top.

Thanks, so just a different kind of nothing special?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 05:19:17 PM
 :lol:

Sure mongers.  It's not made out of wood or flax, and it makes people's lives easier, so it's not real.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 22, 2018, 05:42:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 05:19:17 PM
:lol:

Sure mongers.  It's not made out of wood or flax, and it makes people's lives easier, so it's not real.

My point was we've had those things for years over here, really nothing special.  :bowler:

If you want tech and innovative why not look up Rocket Lab, a US-Kiwi startup.  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on January 22, 2018, 05:52:01 PM
How much do youse allocate every year for speculative stocks / investments?  Dollar figure or % if anyone's inclined to answer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2018, 06:02:21 PM
Quote from: Camerus on January 22, 2018, 05:52:01 PM
How much do youse allocate every year for speculative stocks / investments?  Dollar figure or % if anyone's inclined to answer.

My last three purchases have been on the speculative side because I felt I had been too conservative up to then and I was missing out on all the monsters.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on January 22, 2018, 08:17:19 PM
I also invest my spare change coffee cans  into lottery ticket scratch off or casino binges. I've done okay on that score.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2018, 01:07:03 AM
Just saw part of an interview with Tim Buckley, Vanguard CEO.  He said to expect 4.5% returns for the next 10 years.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 23, 2018, 08:23:31 AM
Quote from: mongers on January 22, 2018, 03:29:48 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 22, 2018, 02:30:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 22, 2018, 01:15:07 PM
Are African villages actually owned by anyone?  How can you buy something that is not owned?

I imagine it depends on the village. I doubt there is one pan-African village ownership system.

Indeed, and given the cultural diversity and range of colonial influences, I suspect you'd find a huge range of ownership/legal situations as regard land ownership.

A hint for Tamas, many retail clerks in the Western world now only make minimum wage, and I think plenty of them could be on top-up benefits, so who would these people be able to afford nearly all capital expenditures let along land and multiply buildings.

Incidentally the last documentary I saw set in Africa was a couple of weeks ago, the issue at hand was land deputes in Tanzania between the generations of families, the main case involved ten acres of land near the village, that iirc amounted to $20,000. So not exactly pocket change is it.

After all sorts of tactics to drive off/discredit the inheriting daughter, the case was solve through negotiation and the daughter got her money, maybe not full value, and she was reconciled with the wider family. I think the uncle was at fault.

Tamas assertion only make sense if you have a Trumpian view of the world.

Yeah, so I better be careful about how include minimum wage earners and African villages in jokes, but you are perfectly free to refer to my upbringing in a derogatory term.

Why is it that it is fine to be racist to East Europeans?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2018, 05:26:57 PM
Massacree today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: KRonn on February 05, 2018, 10:44:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2018, 05:26:57 PM
Massacree today.

Indeed, correction or whatever. I think part of it is that as the economy improves, the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates.  So the big players in the market start changing investments. Plus the worry about inflation as the economy heats up but I don't think inflation is an issue yet at all.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 06, 2018, 03:51:02 AM
Doom?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 06, 2018, 04:10:56 AM
Nah.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 06, 2018, 05:05:32 AM
MAH PROFITS
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 06, 2018, 09:40:26 AM
On the other hand, I guess the "panic" is strengthened by slow news day:

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/a9c6aeef4509d7a3e2ff10aae8197f735d6988e5/0_0_957_543/master/957.png?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=fe4064f390223355bc00c177999a37e2)


LOWEST SINCE NOVEMBER LAST YEAR?! EXTRAORDINARY!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on February 06, 2018, 09:42:16 AM
What we need now is for Trump to do something stupid so that the news can concentrate on him.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: frunk on February 06, 2018, 09:43:16 AM
So just like every other day for the past two years.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on February 06, 2018, 09:45:01 AM
Quote from: frunk on February 06, 2018, 09:43:16 AM
So just like every other day for the past two years.

Exactly, but now it would be a cause for good. It's his time to shine.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 06, 2018, 09:45:47 AM
Quote from: HVC on February 06, 2018, 09:45:01 AM
Quote from: frunk on February 06, 2018, 09:43:16 AM
So just like every other day for the past two years.

Exactly, but now it would be a cause for good. It's his time to shine.

Calling the Dems traitors for not celebrating his speech doesn't count?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 06, 2018, 01:26:13 PM
Market is up today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 06, 2018, 03:54:02 PM
It seems odd that the market isn't up post trump considering the generous benefits tax reform bestowed upon corporate america. We are at roughly Dow 25000. We aren't too far away in percentage terms from that infamous benchmark Dow 36000.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 06, 2018, 04:34:43 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 06, 2018, 03:54:02 PM
It seems odd that the market isn't up post trump considering the generous benefits tax reform bestowed upon corporate america. We are at roughly Dow 25000. We aren't too far away in percentage terms from that infamous benchmark Dow 36000.

As I understand the reasonable people explain this with anticipated higher inflation and rising interest rates.

I think it was as good a day as any to take profits and scare people so they could buy shit on the low.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 06, 2018, 04:37:38 PM
Who is "they" Tamas? The Trilateral Commission?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 06, 2018, 10:37:38 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 06, 2018, 04:34:43 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 06, 2018, 03:54:02 PM
It seems odd that the market isn't up post trump considering the generous benefits tax reform bestowed upon corporate america. We are at roughly Dow 25000. We aren't too far away in percentage terms from that infamous benchmark Dow 36000.

As I understand the reasonable people explain this with anticipated higher inflation and rising interest rates.

I think it was as good a day as any to take profits and scare people so they could buy shit on the low.

Tamas, higher interest rates will cause a decline in the stock market, all else being equal. But higher inflation should cause markets to go higher absent a change in interest rates.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 07, 2018, 09:38:01 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 06, 2018, 09:40:26 AM
LOWEST SINCE NOVEMBER LAST YEAR?! EXTRAORDINARY!

:lol:

MY STOCKS LOST 1/200th OF THEIR VALUE!

Time for a panic. Everybody sell all their shit at once.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Liep on February 07, 2018, 12:14:39 PM
"In the "old days," when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!"

Can someone verify that this is how the market responds now?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 07, 2018, 12:20:12 PM
Quote from: Liep on February 07, 2018, 12:14:39 PM
"In the "old days," when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!"

Can someone verify that this is how the market responds now?

That is an incredibly idiotic statement. I presume the President tweeted this out?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Liep on February 07, 2018, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 07, 2018, 12:20:12 PM
Quote from: Liep on February 07, 2018, 12:14:39 PM
"In the "old days," when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!"

Can someone verify that this is how the market responds now?

That is an incredibly idiotic statement. I presume the President tweeted this out?

:yes:

Like all good writers before him he has a distinct style.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2018, 03:51:02 PM
Ouch.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 08, 2018, 03:54:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2018, 03:51:02 PM
Ouch.

Well that sucks. Hopefully this is just a short-term hiccup.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 08, 2018, 05:54:16 PM
There isn't much evidence of inflationary risk (yet), but rates are tightening.  The Fed didn't have great things to say about the tax package - their perception of fiscal laxity + decent growth fundamentals --> tight policy bias. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2018, 09:01:22 PM
Let's play guess the bottom.

I say 2,400.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 08, 2018, 09:43:31 PM
DOW 2,400?

That would essentially be a market apocalypse.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2018, 10:08:09 PM
S&P 500
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2018, 10:08:45 PM
The Dow is a stupid index and I never pay attention to it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 09, 2018, 04:57:29 AM
So of my tiny little stock purchase some time ago, Lloyds Bank was a reasonably good idea I think. the FTSE100 ETF was less so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 09, 2018, 09:49:58 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2018, 10:08:45 PM
The Dow is a stupid index and I never pay attention to it.
If S&P is a smart index, why is it so small relative to Dow?  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2018, 09:35:58 PM
If this is it, I've ended up only giving back December and January, which is not so bad.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2018, 04:33:11 PM
Well that wasn't much of a crash.

My spidey sense says double dip.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on February 17, 2018, 11:27:47 AM
I wonder how many folks with cash reserves waiting for the impending correction blew their load on this dip.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 21, 2018, 03:24:54 AM
I'm all set up to do my first ever options trade--writing 3 covered calls for ATT, @37.50, March 9 expiration.  I would make $89.74 (at 33 cents a share) and pay a commission of $9.20.

I just can't bring myself to pull the trigger.  Somebody talk me into it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 21, 2018, 04:08:29 AM
Order placed.  Thanks for nothing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2018, 02:30:28 AM
Does the value of a bond fund decline when interest rates rise?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 27, 2018, 02:38:32 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 21, 2018, 04:08:29 AM
Order placed.  Thanks for nothing.

Sorry, I rarely pay attention to this thread or I'd have offered a bit of advice.

What's got you into options trading?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 27, 2018, 02:41:35 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2018, 02:30:28 AM
Does the value of a bond fund decline when interest rates rise?

Not necessarily, but that's typically true. Times of rising rates aren't the best for bonds in general, but particulars might be suitable. If you think rates will continue to rise, shift away from long-term bonds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2018, 04:00:32 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 27, 2018, 02:38:32 AM
What's got you into options trading?

I used to work with a guy at Pearson who had worked at Lehman and his whole career was selling covered calls until it struck, then selling the put to get back in.  He claimed to clear 15% a year.

Then I caught a youtube clip about a kid who started trading when he was 11.  The interviewer asked him what his first options trade was and he said he cobbled together enough shares (SPY I think) to sell one covered call.

Then I was thinking if I'm going to unload a stock (which I wanted to do because I think we have another correction coming and really need to move some money into fixed income anyways) why not make some money while doing it by selling the covered call?

Plus it makes me feel like a badass, with not a great deal of downside.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 27, 2018, 09:29:37 AM
I'm not naive enough to believe fully in efficient market, it does have holes that well-connected can exploit, but clear 15% a year? :yeahright: Only if it's occasionally followed by a clear -100% a year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 28, 2018, 07:02:16 PM
Anyone know why some stocks trade after hours and others don't?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: frunk on February 28, 2018, 07:06:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 28, 2018, 07:02:16 PM
Anyone know why some stocks trade after hours and others don't?

Listed on other exchanges, maybe?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 28, 2018, 07:10:38 PM
Quote from: frunk on February 28, 2018, 07:06:18 PM
Listed on other exchanges, maybe?

Not for the stock I looked at.

I'm wondering if it has something to do with earnings reports.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Brain on March 01, 2018, 03:01:38 AM
So are you guys gonna buy Spotify?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2018, 03:44:59 AM
QuoteThat competition has forced Spotify to spend heavily on music licensing, to maintain a deep catalog of music boasting 35 million tracks , as well as on marketing and R&D. The spending has resulted in hefty and growing losses. In 2017, Spotify said it had a net loss of €1.2 billion ($1.5 billion USD), compared to a net loss of €539 million the year before.

Maybe not.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Brain on March 01, 2018, 03:58:24 AM
The Internet will make everyone rich. It's not just a fad.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 14, 2018, 10:58:41 PM
Hey Abacus, got an options question for you.

I buy a call.  Stock price rises, I'm in the money.  I don't want the stock, so I sell the call to close out my position.

Does someone have to buy that call from me, or is it automatic?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 15, 2018, 11:31:07 AM
If it's traded on the open market (I assume you have a broker? Or bought the option from an exchange?), then it's pretty much automatic, assuming I'm understanding your question correctly.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 19, 2018, 08:43:14 PM
Second options trade today, this time covered calls on Square.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 20, 2018, 03:53:51 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 19, 2018, 08:43:14 PM
Second options trade today, this time covered calls on Square.

Price jumps 3 bucks today, call is way in the money, but counterparty doesn't call my shares.  Holding out for more upside?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 22, 2018, 02:44:03 PM
And now he's out of the money.  Suck on it, you greedhead.

Market not very happy today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 22, 2018, 03:00:27 PM
In typical fashion, I had my tiny stock account in modest green until recently. Now the FTSE 100 ETF is quite set in the red, while the Bank of England decision has also switched my Lloyds to red.

This kinda' matters a bit because in a month or two I'll need to close the account because they'll start charging inactivity fees :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 23, 2018, 06:30:27 PM
I dumped all stock in dollar store chains.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 23, 2018, 07:20:15 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 23, 2018, 06:30:27 PM
I dumped all stock in dollar store chains.

Do you mean you sold everything and put it all in stores for poors, or sold off everything you had in stores for poors?

Wish I could have gotten in on Dollar General.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on March 23, 2018, 07:30:44 PM
 :glare:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sophie Scholl on March 23, 2018, 07:58:23 PM
I know the general agreement is that a President has little to no effect on what happens with the economy overall, but unilaterally passing potentially globally disastrous tariffs makes this an exception to the rule, no?  Am I "insanely naive" to think such a thing? :mellow:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 23, 2018, 08:27:33 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on March 23, 2018, 07:30:44 PM
:glare:

wut?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: jimmy olsen on March 24, 2018, 05:09:52 AM
Quote from: Benedict Arnold on March 23, 2018, 07:58:23 PM
I know the general agreement is that a President has little to no effect on what happens with the economy overall, but unilaterally passing potentially globally disastrous tariffs makes this an exception to the rule, no?  Am I "insanely naive" to think such a thing? :mellow:

You are correct
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 31, 2018, 12:22:33 PM
I had a meeting with a bank financial adviser at my local Chase bank.  I came armed with skepticism, but I was willing to hear him out.  I do think that financial advisers at the bank can help you with some things, especially if you're not particularly knowledgeable in the messy details of personal finance, even if you have to swat away a pitch or two for the proprietary financial products. 

It did not go well. 

At the beginning, he recommended that I dump my prior company's stock in my 401k, because it under-performed the market in the last five years.  I asked him what the beta of my company stock was.  He said it had to be at least 2, since a single stock is so risky.   :wacko:  I told him that we must not be thinking of the same concept when we talk about betas.  Just to put his statement in context because he wouldn't, I looked it up on my phone and it was actually 0.60.   :hmm:  Yes, it under-performed the market, but with a beta like that it would be expected to in the last five years, I would think.  It is risky to own a single stock, but the problem is diversification, not poor performance.  He probably lost me right there and then, but I continued hearing him out.

He then recommended that I move my funds out of my target retirement funds, and have Chase actively manage them for me.  The fee would be higher than the expense ratio of the target retirement fund, but it would be worth it, because active management means that Chase would give me better returns and reduce my risk.  A whole bunch of numbers were thrown at me all throughout.

I asked him about my options if I didn't believe in active management.  He said that in that case, Chase is not for me.   :hmm:  I was coming to that conclusion myself.  He did try to convince me that I was stupid for not wanting to get all those extra returns, and grew increasingly agitated when I wasn't budging, and was wondering out loud what the hell I wanted from him if I wasn't interested in getting better returns.  I said I wanted diversification with passive management, and he kept trying to convince me that active management is what will accomplish that.  Eventually he conceded that maybe target retirement funds are the best option for what I'm looking for, and I shouldn't do anything differently.

I was aware of the stereotype of financial adviser at the bank, but I expected it to be hyperbolic, and that reality would be less cynical.  I would have to say that my meeting confirmed the stereotype to the fullest.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 31, 2018, 12:32:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 31, 2018, 12:22:33 PM
At the beginning, he recommended that I dump my prior company's stock in my 401k, because it under-performed the market in the last five years.  I asked him what the beta of my company stock was.  He said it had to be at least 2, since a single stock is so risky.   :wacko:

Time to run away screaming.

QuoteHe then recommended that I move my funds out of my target retirement funds

Danger! Danger!

Quoteand have Chase actively manage them for me.  The fee would be higher than the expense ratio of the target retirement fund, but it would be worth it, because active management means that Chase would give me better returns and reduce my risk.

:lol: Holy shit. You met the stereotype of salesman-not-advisor.

QuoteI was aware of the stereotype of financial adviser at the bank, but I expected it to be hyperbolic, and that reality would be less cynical.  I would have to say that my meeting confirmed the stereotype to the fullest.

You made the right decision.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 31, 2018, 12:44:08 PM
Are there any banks around that have financial advisors that actually help you with bullshit you can't possibly know, rather than try to sell you on shit so that they get to skim the fees?  Or is my experience pretty much par for the course?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on March 31, 2018, 03:35:14 PM
UBS
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2018, 03:41:06 PM
IMO anyone who hands their money over to a wealth management guy is tossing 1% of their money out the window.  Every year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2018, 03:52:29 PM
BTW what is the expense ratio on your target retirement fund?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 31, 2018, 04:04:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2018, 03:52:29 PM
BTW what is the expense ratio on your target retirement fund?
It's 0.50%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2018, 04:10:08 PM
And what is (are) the question you had for Salesman Dude, pray tell?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 31, 2018, 04:45:24 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2018, 04:10:08 PM
And what is (are) the question you had for Salesman Dude, pray tell?
It started out as a different banking matter, not involving the 401k, or the financial advisor for that matter.  Had I known that active management was the only trick in his bag, and not just the first sales pitch for the suckers, I would've not wasted my time. 

I guess I also expected something like "here's what you're not doing, but you should be thinking about doing", about something I never thought about doing but is probably a good idea.  Given how complicated the world of finance is, and how intolerant I am of learning about the nitty gritty bullshit relating to this, I thought there was some potential of value add on his part.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 01, 2018, 08:41:03 PM
DGuller, the problem is that you want:

a) a guy to not charge you an hourly or flat fee; which basically means a guy gets paid off commission;
b) a passive investment strategy that doesn't give the retail bank advisor space for commissions.

Also smart guy who is educated in finance enough to know about betas isn't going to be working at a local retail bank.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 02, 2018, 07:26:01 PM
I got butchered in the Nasdaq.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 03, 2018, 04:49:05 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 01, 2018, 08:41:03 PM
Also smart guy who is educated in finance enough to know about betas isn't going to be working at a local retail bank.

Yeah, I think therein lies the problem.  If you walk into a retail space for advice, expect retail advice.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 03, 2018, 04:49:37 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on April 02, 2018, 07:26:01 PM
I got butchered in the Nasdaq.

A sacrifice is needed from time to time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 03, 2018, 07:38:28 PM
So hurtful.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Ed Anger on April 06, 2018, 07:27:50 PM
MUH SELL LIMIT ORDERS
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 08, 2018, 11:23:17 AM
I am thinking about putting a tiny amount of gambling money into Bluejay Mining as the idea of Greenland mining intrigues me:
https://www.titanium.gl/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 11, 2018, 03:51:44 AM
Well I haven't. Too much like gambling even for me.

Screw Trump though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on July 11, 2018, 11:02:09 PM
I hear the commodities money is in lithium and other battery component materials.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 05, 2018, 06:25:23 PM
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-dang-turns-out-even-hitler-was-shorting-tesla-stock-2018-08-05

Musk mocks Tesla short sellers (sitting on $2 billion paper loss) with doctored Downfall clip.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on September 06, 2018, 03:45:58 PM
MAH NASDAQ
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 11, 2018, 05:24:49 PM
MA NET WORTH
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on October 11, 2018, 09:16:43 PM
MUH CRYPTO
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on October 11, 2018, 10:10:15 PM
Not a good last few days huh?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 12, 2018, 01:35:48 AM
Buying opportuniuty
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on October 24, 2018, 08:06:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 12, 2018, 01:35:48 AM
Buying opportuniuty

Still think this way?  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 24, 2018, 08:30:55 PM
Quote from: mongers on October 24, 2018, 08:06:08 PM
Still think this way?  :P

Absolutely.  Any dip, any correction is temporary.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2018, 12:55:50 PM
I now own: ganja.  :smoke:

Renard, help a brother out and buy Canopy Growth products.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on December 21, 2018, 09:19:10 PM
US stocks have nearly the worst week in a decade:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46654064 (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46654064)

Quote
US stocks suffered one of the worst weekly falls in a decade as trade tensions with China, interest rate rises and a possible government shutdown rattled markets.

All three indexes closed lower, with the technology-focused Nasdaq down 20% since its peak, placing it in so-called "bear market" territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its biggest weekly drop in percentage terms since 2008.

The S&P 500 fell 7% for the week.

It is the biggest weekly percentage drop since August 2011 while the Nasdaq's 8.36% decline is the sharpest since November 2008.

The Dow Jones fell 6.8% during the week.

Trumpian* chickens coming home to roost?



* I can't tell because surprisingly he hasn't been twittering about it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on December 25, 2018, 03:15:08 PM
Dow has worst ever Xmas eve and largest December drop since 1931.  :hmm:

Asia indexes down today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46679094 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46679094)

Quote
Japan's Nikkei index slides amid US uncertainty
25 December 2018

Japan's main stock market index has plunged, reflecting traders' worries following a slide on Wall Street.

The Nikkei closed down 5% on Tuesday, its worst finish since April 2017. Indexes in Shanghai, Bangkok and Taiwan also fell.

Investors have been concerned about President Trump's dispute with the US central bank chief and another government shutdown.
US stocks had their worst Christmas Eve on record.

The Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies fell more than 650 points on Monday, and is on track for its worst December since 1931, during the Great Depression.

Many financial markets in Asia, Europe and North America are closed on Tuesday for Christmas.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on December 25, 2018, 05:10:00 PM
Not that I am enjoying this fall with my meager positions taking a beating, but to be fair I read several times over the years that the good times had been made possible and propped up by QE and the nonexistent interest rate and things will turn for the worst once these change.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 25, 2018, 05:53:13 PM
I am extremely happy when interest rates go up  :showoff:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on December 25, 2018, 06:31:55 PM
Tamas, do you mostly invest in the US markets?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on December 26, 2018, 03:14:24 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on December 25, 2018, 06:31:55 PM
Tamas, do you mostly invest in the US markets?

I have very little money in it so it doesn't even worth analysing. The plan was to regularly add to it (with most of my savings going to normal savings), but that's now on hold until Trump saves us all from Mexicans ruining the stock market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2018, 04:06:12 PM
Well this is a little more like it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on December 27, 2018, 01:35:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 26, 2018, 04:06:12 PM
Well this is a little more like it.

Dead cat bounce? :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 27, 2018, 04:31:32 PM
Do real dead cats actually bounce?  I've never even once seen it happen.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Liep on December 27, 2018, 05:57:03 PM
Quote from: DGuller on December 27, 2018, 04:31:32 PM
Do real dead cats actually bounce?  I've never even once seen it happen.

How many dead cats have you thrown to the ground?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 27, 2018, 06:18:04 PM
Quote from: Liep on December 27, 2018, 05:57:03 PM
Quote from: DGuller on December 27, 2018, 04:31:32 PM
Do real dead cats actually bounce?  I've never even once seen it happen.

How many dead cats have you thrown to the ground?
Zero.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on December 27, 2018, 07:43:55 PM
"dead cat bounce" may be my favourite euphemism ever.   :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: 11B4V on December 27, 2018, 10:34:35 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 27, 2018, 07:43:55 PM
"dead cat bounce" may be my favourite euphemism ever.   :)

Shamelessly using this in a Facebook troll.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 17, 2019, 10:55:54 AM
meow
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 17, 2019, 12:04:25 PM
Buying puts on Netflix is looking attractive right now.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 17, 2019, 12:07:25 PM
Because of the price increase, or something else?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 17, 2019, 02:15:36 PM
I actually think the price increase is a good thing for them. Their subscriber base seems, to me, pretty resilient to increases due to the perceived value. Increasing like they are shores up their revenue position a lot.

Mostly, though, I think the stock is horribly inflated. For a supposed growth stock, it's getting long in the tooth. I don't see their ability to expand much further into areas they're targeting (India), for instance. Then again, their floating threat to start policing multiple log-ins on the same account might actually give them even more subscribers.

I'm not going to pull the trigger, but I am going to see what things are like in a few hours for a sick thrill.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: AnchorClanker on January 19, 2019, 03:15:16 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on December 25, 2018, 05:53:13 PM
I am extremely happy when interest rates go up  :showoff:

Ha, it depends on what one is investing in - real estate guys tend to hate it...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: AnchorClanker on January 19, 2019, 07:50:53 AM
Oh, the galaxy of investing options out there...

First off, Armanino Fine Foods of Distinction (AMNF) is a real gem of a small-cap.  It's below $3/share, pays around 3% in dividends, and is very well-run.  Nice little family business that makes meatballs and pesto.  I've had it for years, and it's a nice little penny stock.  Growth PLUS dividends?  Yes, please.  Plus, the kids aren't interested in running the company, so it's a possible buy-out candidate in the near to mid-term future.

Royal Nickel (RNKLF) up in Canada is a nickel AND gold miner - and they found a LOT of gold in an established nickel mine in Western Australia (the Beta Hunt mine).  It's bounced between 30ish and 80ish cents for the last few months, but they are quite likely to pop when the full seam gets explored.  There's a 4km seam down there, and plenty of gold to be mined.  Worth looking into, if you have some cash to spare.  Eric Sprott is on board, and has bought upwards of 10% of the shares... and he knows his mining business.

There's some others out there that I like, but I'll save them for later.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2019, 01:36:40 AM
Lot of big IPOs coming out this year.  Starting with Lyft today.  Uber, Airbnb.

Anyone piling in?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 29, 2019, 01:44:15 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2019, 01:36:40 AM
Lot of big IPOs coming out this year.  Starting with Lyft today.  Uber, Airbnb.

Anyone piling in?

Nah.  The only one I am interested in is Saudi Aramco. 

Now that I think about it, I don't even think I have a way to participate in a US IPO.  I seriously doubt if my bank will allow me to subscribe. 

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2019, 01:53:13 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2019, 01:44:15 AM
Now that I think about it, I don't even think I have a way to participate in a US IPO.  I seriously doubt if my bank will allow me to subscribe.

I don't either.  I'm talking about getting in post issue.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 29, 2019, 01:59:01 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2019, 01:53:13 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2019, 01:44:15 AM
Now that I think about it, I don't even think I have a way to participate in a US IPO.  I seriously doubt if my bank will allow me to subscribe.

I don't either.  I'm talking about getting in post issue.

Really?  I have no idea how it works in the US.  But in Hong Kong, it is very common for ordinary folk to participate in an IPO.  They distribute forms in banks.  You line up, get one, fill in the form, and return it to the bank.  Then it depends.  If the IPO is under-subscribed, you get all the shares that you asked for.  If the IPO is over-subscribed, the underwriter decides what to do.  Most common method is to draw lots to determine who gets the right to buy the shares.  Some of the gigantic IPOs, e.g. state-owned mainland banks, have a policy of ensuring that everybody gets one lot (in HK, shares are traded in lots.  You have to buy 1000 shares of Company A, or you trade at a disadvantage). 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2019, 02:08:27 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2019, 01:59:01 AM
Really?  I have no idea how it works in the US.  But in Hong Kong, it is very common for ordinary folk to participate in an IPO.  They distribute forms in banks.  You line up, get one, fill in the form, and return it to the bank.  Then it depends.  If the IPO is under-subscribed, you get all the shares that you asked for.  If the IPO is over-subscribed, the underwriter decides what to do.  Most common method is to draw lots to determine who gets the right to buy the shares.  Some of the gigantic IPOs, e.g. state-owned mainland banks, have a policy of ensuring that everybody gets one lot (in HK, shares are traded in lots.  You have to buy 1000 shares of Company A, or you trade at a disadvantage).

Well, I've heard it said many times that new shares get reserved for "valued clients" by brokerages.  The conventional wisdom is IPOs are a way for fat cat investors to get fatter.  And I've never read or heard anything to debunk that conventional wisdom.

I just did a quick spot check on IPOs on Etrade, and they say you need to fill out a form and get approval first.  Then you can put a conditional offer in if you have cash in your account.  I'm not going to bother.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on March 29, 2019, 02:14:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2019, 02:08:27 AM


Well, I've heard it said many times that new shares get reserved for "valued clients" by brokerages.  The conventional wisdom is IPOs are a way for fat cat investors to get fatter.  And I've never read or heard anything to debunk that conventional wisdom.

I just did a quick spot check on IPOs on Etrade, and they say you need to fill out a form and get approval first.  Then you can put a conditional offer in if you have cash in your account.  I'm not going to bother.

The valued clients part is true here as well, particularly for small companies.  I don't bother with those.  But some of the IPOs are state-owned enterprises.  They exist not only to make a profit, but to ensure perpetual communist rule.  So they have an incentive to make sure that the little folks all own a tiny amount of the state-owned enterprises, and they make some profit in the deal.  It is almost like a government handout, so every adult in Hong Kong hands in a form. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 29, 2019, 11:08:21 AM
Regular investors can get in on the IPO sometimes, it just depends on whether the stock is expected to tank after going public.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 29, 2019, 11:09:18 AM
I'm looking forward to options contracts opening on Lyft.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 29, 2019, 11:34:17 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 29, 2019, 11:09:18 AM
I'm looking forward to options contracts opening on Lyft.

Give the article in the NYTimes a read, most of the upside appears to be taken already by the private investors who are now taking it public.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 29, 2019, 01:30:11 PM
That seems to be very likely to be the case, yes. I don't expect puts to come cheaply, but...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2019, 01:44:58 PM
13% bounce for Lyft out of the gate.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 29, 2019, 01:48:08 PM
The hype is strong.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2019, 05:29:23 PM
And now it's cratering.

Did you ever buy those puts Seppuku, or did they stay hypothetical?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 10, 2019, 06:03:35 PM
The puts were (rather predictably) priced excessively high for the potential return. With a breakeven somewhere around the low-$50s, I didn't feel confident enough buying.

Checking up, current reasonable breakeven is ~$40 mark, and I'm not convinced they'll actually lose 1/3rd their current value.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2019, 06:08:00 PM
Yeah, I've noticed in my cursory investigation of options that the easy money is already priced like easy money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 10, 2019, 06:09:25 PM
I'd hope so, or the writers are suckers.  :D

Though there's some money to be had writing calls and puts at easy money levels...  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 12, 2019, 12:55:39 PM
You inspired me Seppuku.  Just sold 7 AT&T covered calls at 32.50.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 12, 2019, 02:17:23 PM
 :showoff: Writing can be good money. I'm glad you're covering.

Don't be this guy: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelcannivet/2018/11/29/a-recent-hedge-fund-implosion-offers-lessons-for-everyday-investors/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 12, 2019, 02:27:43 PM
Infinite liability!

Have you done a bit of writing?  I just doubled the number of covered calls I've written, from 2 to 4.

Mono, this might be for you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 12, 2019, 02:54:19 PM
I've dabbled, but tend to recommend traditional stocks for greater returns. As I get older, I'll likely shift to writing more options for a more stable rate of return.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 27, 2019, 01:28:16 PM
Seppuku, maybe you can help me think through the first principles of this split-strike conversion options strategy.

It seems to me to be a variant of the straddle, in which you simultaneously sell the call and the put, to make the bookmakers' vig in the middle.

It seems perfect for a stock that has some volatility, but with a stagnant long term trend.  AT&T for example.  Back of the envelope calculations say I can make about 10% return selling calls on AT&T. 

The danger (I'm sure there are others) is that your stock spikes.  Now if you try to get it back by selling puts, you're able to buy fewer shares because of the price rise.  Or you can buy the same number of shares but eat up all your put premium profit and then some.

I'm thinking in that case you walk away from that stock and find a random stock to sell cash covered puts on.  No emotional attachments, just money.

Thoughts?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 13, 2019, 02:31:45 PM
Just bought some Uber
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 11, 2019, 03:32:00 PM
Just got an offer from Etrade to sign up for their Fully Paid Lending Program, and did so.

Basically, I have a chance to be the counter party to a short sale.

AFAICT, the only downside is while the stock is lent, you get a cash payment in lieu of dividend which has a different tax treatment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 13, 2019, 02:49:43 PM
And right off the bat 100 shares of Canopy Growth (Canadian pot stock) get borrowed, and I get paid the princely interest rate of 1.7204%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 14, 2019, 06:33:26 PM
Etrade, Schwab and TD Ameritrade have all dropped their commissions to zero. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on November 11, 2019, 11:54:52 AM
Travis Kalanick (former Uber CEO and all around shitbag) just dumped half a billion in stock.

Time to buy some long-term puts?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on November 11, 2019, 01:45:05 PM
Probably cashing out some chips before their failure to actually make a profit catches up with them.

https://www.businessinsider.com/where-uber-spends-its-money-lost-5-billion-second-quarter-2019-8?r=US&IR=T

QuoteUber lost a whopping $5.2 billion in the second quarter of 2019, the company revealed on Thursday, its deepest quarterly loss ever, thanks to an expensive initial public offering earlier this year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2019, 03:27:40 PM
But strangely Uber's price didn't move much.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on November 11, 2019, 05:11:00 PM
He only sold ~21% of his holdings in Uber, so it's possible it's seen as just a profit-taking move on his part rather than an indicator of value.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on November 11, 2019, 05:26:42 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2019, 03:27:40 PM
But strangely Uber's price didn't move much.

Hobson's choice?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2019, 05:36:38 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 11, 2019, 05:26:42 PM
Hobson's choice?

I don't follow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on November 11, 2019, 06:01:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2019, 05:36:38 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 11, 2019, 05:26:42 PM
Hobson's choice?

I don't follow.

If I was clever I explain and have made it a better analogy.  :Embarrass:

So we're just have to go with the 'it's the only pony in town' - what other smartphone driven ride scheme is possibly going to make billions for investors, perhaps?

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on November 11, 2019, 06:17:35 PM
...you mean besides Lyft?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 12, 2019, 10:38:26 PM
Did you buy some Saudi Aramco mono?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on December 12, 2019, 10:44:03 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 12, 2019, 10:38:26 PM
Did you buy some Saudi Aramco mono?

No.  It is only listed on the Saudi Arabia Exchange.  I don't have access to that.  I just feel very sad that Saudi Aramco didn't choose to list in Hong Kong :weep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on December 14, 2019, 04:23:44 PM
Find a HK ETF that's in it. That's how I shorted the Shenzhen exchange for the Chinese crash a few years ago.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 19, 2019, 07:03:35 PM
Is anyone willing to talk about their own equity/bond distribution?

Rule of thumb says 60/40.  I'm 100% stocks, a little cash waiting for a dip to buy into.

I just think yields are just to low to hold bonds.  I've also heard too much a bubble in bonds caused by investors chasing shitty returns.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on December 19, 2019, 08:42:46 PM
I'm ca. 15-85 bonds to stocks. That's a historically somewhat risky ratio, sure, but one justified by low interest rates and my relatively younger age and longer timeframe for investing.

No cash, as I view (Canadian government) bond ETFs as a better alternative to cash in the medium and long runs.

A dip or even major correction  /  bear is clearly coming at some point, but as the saying goes, more money has been wasted waiting on the sidelines for a correction to happen than in actual corrections. Think of the money you would have missed out on staying on the sidelines in 2019, for example.

Besides which, there's so much pessimism about next year's returns that I wonder how much of that is already baked into prices.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on December 19, 2019, 08:45:30 PM
I missed out on 2019 by not investing new funds but I kept the funds I had invested in play.  Still wary about putting new money in.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on December 19, 2019, 11:41:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 19, 2019, 07:03:35 PM
Is anyone willing to talk about their own equity/bond distribution?

Rule of thumb says 60/40.  I'm 100% stocks, a little cash waiting for a dip to buy into.

I just think yields are just to low to hold bonds.  I've also heard too much a bubble in bonds caused by investors chasing shitty returns.

I'm 100% stocks at the moment in my retirement portfolio with some crypto. I expect to be 100% in stocks for at least 15 more years, though I seriously question your portfolio's balance as you're presumably much closer to retirement than I am, Yi.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on December 20, 2019, 01:27:42 AM
5% bonds, 25% cash and 70% stocks.........despite my age  :P

But our principal assets are various public sector pensions which, presuming the country doesn't collapse, are inflation-proofed and very solid.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 20, 2019, 03:55:29 PM
You bond guys in bond funds or own individual bonds?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on December 20, 2019, 04:35:56 PM
My investments are predominantly equities, with a mix of selected blue chip stocks and also a fair bit of a dividend/income focus (mostly in REITs).  The idea being a split of modest/conservative growth and good, steady income to supplement the eventual pension.  Hopefully making post-retirement employment highly optional.

But then maybe I'm an investment idiot.   :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on December 21, 2019, 09:49:49 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 20, 2019, 03:55:29 PM
You bond guys in bond funds or own individual bonds?

Bond funds. Easier to buy, and can be sold pretty easily if stocks tank and a buying opportunity arises. Also makes rebalancing easier.

Flip side of course is more obvious price fluctuation, especially based on interest rate movement, which obviously seriously undermines the purpose of a bond. With low rates we have now that's a bit of a problem for the future. On the other hand in the event of a dip in stocks, interest rates may be cut again, thus driving up bond ETF value and making rebalancing even more advantageous. In the Canadian context the Bank of Canada has signaled there will likely be no raises in interest rates for a while, but we'll see what happens.

In the event, the Canadian bond funds my wife and I own haven't had phenomenal returns obviously in this current bull, but they've easily beat inflation on average and beaten most if not all high interest savings account rates available to us. I think there's only been one year where total returns resulted in a loss, but even that was just around 1%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on December 21, 2019, 12:09:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 19, 2019, 07:03:35 PM
Is anyone willing to talk about their own equity/bond distribution?

Rule of thumb says 60/40.  I'm 100% stocks, a little cash waiting for a dip to buy into.

I just think yields are just to low to hold bonds.  I've also heard too much a bubble in bonds caused by investors chasing shitty returns.

Fuck bonds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on December 21, 2019, 01:58:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 20, 2019, 03:55:29 PM
You bond guys in bond funds or own individual bonds?

Both.  I let the guys who manage my portfolio put in a bond mix but they take into consideration the fact that I own bonds outside that portfolio.  I don't really like paying a management fee on those sorts of essentially fixed investments.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 23, 2019, 12:00:28 PM
Tesla going nuts.

$420 now, IPO price $17.  :cry:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on December 23, 2019, 12:29:14 PM
Yeah, kinda wishing I bought it again back in the mid $200s.

But...we cannot all buy winning lottery tickets.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 27, 2019, 09:06:36 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on December 19, 2019, 11:41:26 PM
I'm 100% stocks at the moment in my retirement portfolio with some crypto. I expect to be 100% in stocks for at least 15 more years, though I seriously question your portfolio's balance as you're presumably much closer to retirement than I am, Yi.

I think I'll stay 100% stocks.  Here's why.

As we've discussed before, we recovered from the last crash in about two years.  Even taking into account the longer time it took to recover from the dot com crash, that crash wiped out several prior years of equity appreciation which bonds did not benefit from.  To put it in child like terms, that crash, at the trough, reduced the long term yield on stocks to the level bonds had always been at.  By child like I mean I don't want to hunt down some historical charts and do the math.

And bond yields are just too damn low.  You might as well just hold cash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 29, 2020, 05:49:18 PM
Sometimes it is good to bet on the crazy guy.   :P



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2020, 10:02:12 PM
He's a visionary.  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 03, 2020, 12:22:34 PM
Now I regret having not gone bigger.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2020, 12:42:24 PM
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-biggest-bull-stampedes-to-a-7000-price-target-2020-02-03

If you buy this lady's argument it's still a buying opportunity.  $7,000 base case by 2024, $15,000 best case, $1,500 worst case.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 03, 2020, 01:00:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2020, 12:42:24 PM
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-biggest-bull-stampedes-to-a-7000-price-target-2020-02-03

If you buy this lady's argument it's still a buying opportunity.  $7,000 base case by 2024, $15,000 best case, $1,500 worst case.

Yeah, I saw that.  I think that is a bit much, but I'm thinking $1K-1.5K is looking pretty realistic.  Especially if the Model Y starts off good.

Myself...I'd never buy a Model 3.  I really hate the big-iPad-only look.  The dash of the Model X is way, waaaay better.  Just the $100K.  :(

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2020, 01:08:38 PM
Dude, we're already pushing 800.  1,000 by 2024 would be pretty dire.

Although I can't bring myself to buy into this rocket ride.

Maybe if Elon tweets a death threat to the SEC chairman and creates another big dip.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 03, 2020, 05:51:40 PM
The one smart thing I did this time, though, is bought the stock in my Roth IRA (I had done a quick TSLA buy-and-sell a couple years ago too, but that was in my regular brokerage account)...the at least these gains are tax free.  :smarty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2020, 01:52:00 PM
This is getting silly.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 04, 2020, 02:02:58 PM
I need to think about putting a trailing stop-loss on it now.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 04, 2020, 02:35:06 PM
Tesla is starting to scare me. What goes up that fast, that high, must surely come down pretty hard too, right? I just don't see the fundamentals there.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2020, 03:09:02 PM
As my old macro professor used to say, every financial decision is a struggle between greed and fear.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2020, 04:17:52 PM
80 bucks down from its intraday high.  FOMOs and fanbois piled in and smart money took profits, killing the bubble.  Back to a nice, healthy, runaway stock price. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on February 05, 2020, 01:52:25 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 04, 2020, 02:35:06 PM
Tesla is starting to scare me. What goes up that fast, that high, must surely come down pretty hard too, right? I just don't see the fundamentals there.

It's pure algo-rage
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2020, 11:41:42 AM
Yesterday's gain almost exactly given back.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 05, 2020, 01:09:12 PM
Should've followed my gut. :cry:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2020, 02:42:58 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPHEb0bGcPw

Ralph Nader making no sense about Tesla price manipulation and general market overpricing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 05, 2020, 02:56:25 PM
 :lol: He's saying things that make sense at the start, and then just starts rambling. Yee-ikes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 05, 2020, 02:57:41 PM
The anchor is very charitable, throwing him a lifeline at the end there.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 13, 2020, 03:21:43 AM
Ok, one of my bonds has matured, and I need to find another one.

Bond yields are abysmal.  Among the bonds that are available for tiny retail investors, the one with the highest yield is...

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  Yield 3.46%.  Date of Maturity 2046 :bleeding:

Second highest yield is from some Mainland Chinese asset management company.  Yield is 3% or so.  Date of maturity is 2027. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 18, 2020, 03:29:36 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 05, 2020, 01:09:12 PM
Should've followed my gut. :cry:

Looks like you'll get another chance.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 18, 2020, 03:47:32 PM
 :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2020, 02:10:53 AM
Still climbing in after hours.  :ph34r:

I think I'll drop a couple of shares if it hits $950.

Or not.  Shit.  I feel like I'm sitting on the bitcoin bubble.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 02:35:45 AM
Should I buy Iron Mountain, QSR and McDonald's?  I understand that QSR is the holding company of languish legend and favourite Tim Horton's :unsure:

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 02:47:38 AM
More importantly, QSR owns Popeye's.  If I had to invest in a boring food service company with an OK dividend and steady but uninspiring growth I would pick QSR over Mickey's just for the Popeye's connection.  And there was a recent internet flareup about the popularity of their new chicken sandwich so maybe that will internationalize.

I wouldn't buy Iron Mountain.  Long term declining industry and their outrageous dividend is under threat because of the need to invest out of their core business to stay alive.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 02:49:20 AM
Ok, QSR then.  I just have to make sure I stay awake long enough to press the buttons in the middle of the night. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 02:50:35 AM
Anything else?  Any other boring, steady, big company that pays good dividend? 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 02:59:05 AM
I recently bought some Viacom (B shares).  Dude on CNBC said its programming (they own CBS) makes it merger bait in the streaming wars and they pay 2 and a halfish yield.

I also gave thought to buying GE as a recovery play.  They're digging out of a deep hole though and their dividend is like 0.33%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 03:10:19 AM
Do you never buy more speculative stocks?  It's a lot of fun when they hit.  Lots of flashing lights and clanging bells.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 03:33:06 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 03:10:19 AM
Do you never buy more speculative stocks?  It's a lot of fun when they hit.  Lots of flashing lights and clanging bells.

Don't have time to follow all the lights. 

I have like 40 stocks, 7 bonds and 10 funds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 03:38:07 AM
I don't see why you have to follow anything.  I'm not talking about day trading.  I'm talking about buying more risk.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 03:43:07 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 03:38:07 AM
I don't see why you have to follow anything.  I'm not talking about day trading.  I'm talking about buying more risk.

If I buy more risk, I then have to check the stocks very frequently, otherwise they may fall dramatically without me noticing. 

My goal is early retirement.  I want a portfolio that can largely replace my income.  So I just want securities that give me income. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 04:02:54 AM
You can convert asset value to income when you retire.  Right now you just want to maximize appreciation + yield. 

Of course speculative stocks can crater.  They can also recover from disaster, and they can skyrocket.  You buy several so you're diversified.  Think like a venture capitalist.

And it's not like chug chug chug value stocks can't crater.  GE did.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 06:13:06 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 04:02:54 AM
You can convert asset value to income when you retire.  Right now you just want to maximize appreciation + yield. 

Of course speculative stocks can crater.  They can also recover from disaster, and they can skyrocket.  You buy several so you're diversified.  Think like a venture capitalist.

And it's not like chug chug chug value stocks can't crater.  GE did.

I don't think I know enough about any speculative stocks to make a bet. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 06:31:05 AM
What about AbbVie and British American Tobacco?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 07:22:45 AM
Exxon Mobil Corp, Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF, Vanguard Growth ETF, Johnson and Johnson, Duke Energy, AT&T, Wells Fargo. 

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 07:37:18 AM
Ok one more time.

QSR, British American Tobacco, Philip Morris, Verizon, Exxon Mobil Corp, Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF, Vanguard Growth ETF, Johnson and Johnson, AT&T, Wells Fargo.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 10:21:01 AM
OK I sat there for half an hour, pressed all the buttons and the deed is done.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 05:10:23 PM
You bought all those?

Morgan Stanley just acquired Etrade.  Wonder how I will be affected.

Thanks for the baby commercials. :cheers:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 05:16:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 05:10:23 PM
You bought all those?

Morgan Stanley just acquired Etrade.  Wonder how I will be affected.

Thanks for the baby commercials. :cheers:

Yeah I bought 10. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 05:43:15 PM
Are you using some algorithm advisor that says Mr [insert customer name here] we recommend you buy the following stocks?

How do you come up with your lists?

BTW, Viacom nosedived today.  Don't listen to anything I say.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 05:45:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 05:43:15 PM
Are you using some algorithm advisor that says Mr [insert customer name here] we recommend you buy the following stocks?

How do you come up with your lists?

BTW, Viacom nosedived today.  Don't listen to anything I say.

Whatever appears in my internet searches  :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 05:59:39 PM
 :lol:

What are you typing in the search bar?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 06:09:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 05:59:39 PM
:lol:

What are you typing in the search bar?

Best US dividend stocks.

Dividend aristocrats.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 06:25:26 PM
I looked up total return for dividend aristocrats vs broad market.

ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF: 69% five year return.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF: 67% five year return.

Good on ya.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 07:42:54 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 06:25:26 PM
I looked up total return for dividend aristocrats vs broad market.

ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF: 69% five year return.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF: 67% five year return.

Good on ya.

I don't aim to beat the market.  I am happy with market returns.  I am just very happy when I receive tens of letters in the mailbox telling me that I have received a dividend  :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 08:03:09 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 07:42:54 PM
I don't aim to beat the market.  I am happy with market returns.  I am just very happy when I receive tens of letters in the mailbox telling me that I have received a dividend  :blush:

Do they not have electronic delivery of documents in FishBallistan?  Save a couple trees why don't you, you greasy lowlife free rider.

And are you not automatically reinvesting those dividends?  You greasy lowlife dividend-spender.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 09:44:24 PM
Electronic - some banks have changed to electronic statements on a mandatory basis.  Other banks now charge a fee, about US$2.5 dollars a year if I don't switch to electronic.  I choose not to switch because I love getting piles of letters in the physical mailbox telling me that I have received dividends.  This is an indulgence of mine  :blush:

Reinvesting dividends - most companies don't offer that option here.  There is another problem unique to HK - there is this thing called lot size here.  For every company traded on the exchange, there is a preferred lot size.  Say GE's preferred lot size would be 100.  So everybody trades GE shares in multiples of 100.  If you want to trade 60 shares, you can, but those 60 shares will be traded at a discount/premium.  If I reinvest the dividends, I will get odd sized shares that are traded at a discount. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2020, 09:52:26 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 09:44:24 PM
Electronic - some banks have changed to electronic statements on a mandatory basis.  Other banks now charge a fee, about US$2.5 dollars a year if I don't switch to electronic.  I choose not to switch because I love getting piles of letters in the physical mailbox telling me that I have received dividends.  This is an indulgence of mine  :blush:

Bad, bad mono.  [gives mono electronic spanking]

QuoteReinvesting dividends - most companies don't offer that option here.  There is another problem unique to HK - there is this thing called lot size here.  For every company traded on the exchange, there is a preferred lot size.  Say GE's preferred lot size would be 100.  So everybody trades GE shares in multiples of 100.  If you want to trade 60 shares, you can, but those 60 shares will be traded at a discount/premium.  If I reinvest the dividends, I will get odd sized shares that are traded at a discount.

Yeah, I've never looked into whether the price paid on automatic reinvestment is a fair price or not.

Lot sized here mean a couple pennies difference in most cases.  Are the price differences big there?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 10:19:55 PM
A couple per cent, I think.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Monoriu on February 20, 2020, 10:23:18 PM
Oh and I will stick to paper for as long as I can.  Hong Kong companies pay dividends at about the same time every year.  That mail box overflowing with 20 letters all telling me that they have paid me is...worth $2.5. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 24, 2020, 03:13:37 PM
THE CORONA VIRUS CORRECTION IS ON

Where's the bottom going to be?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on February 24, 2020, 03:58:51 PM
I predict we won't see bottom if and until we start seeing significant effects of supply chain disruption. Tomorrow could even rebound, even if only temporarily.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on February 25, 2020, 01:16:50 AM
Almost always at least a short rebound after a day like that.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 25, 2020, 01:27:16 PM
Quote from: Camerus on February 24, 2020, 03:58:51 PM
I predict we won't see bottom if and until we start seeing significant effects of supply chain disruption. Tomorrow could even rebound, even if only temporarily.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-coronavirus-is-pushing-italy-towards-its-fourth-recession-since-200/

subscriber only, but upshot is Italy could be the new Greece.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 25, 2020, 05:54:49 PM
BLOOD ON THE STREETS
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 25, 2020, 06:23:48 PM
So now I am not feeling as stupid for sitting on cash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 25, 2020, 06:36:58 PM
At what point are you planning on not sitting in cash?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 25, 2020, 06:54:40 PM
I'm giving thought to jumping in after another bad day.

Maybe buy some Alphabet then, maybe wait for some more bad news to hit Apple before buying that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 25, 2020, 06:56:35 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 25, 2020, 06:36:58 PM
At what point are you planning on not sitting in cash?

I don't know yet.  I had a meeting scheduled with people who wanted to give me that answer in January but it had to be rescheduled for next week.  I am interested to hear what they tell me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on February 26, 2020, 03:23:14 AM
I'm in cash now apart from some gold stocks, some bonds and a couple of speculatives.

I think this virus will become a pandemic and will seriously disrupt the world economy.....so there will be a substantial adjustment to stockmarket values.

Of course I could easily be wrong  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2020, 09:31:45 AM
Market opens up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 26, 2020, 09:39:48 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2020, 09:31:45 AM
Market opens up.

Obvs. The POTUS has just confirmed the coronavirus panic is just fake news.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on February 26, 2020, 01:11:44 PM
Volatility to ignore. #longterminvestor
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2020, 01:59:03 PM
After the positive open the broad market has turned red.  Maybe this was Mimsy's predicted bounce before continuing the PRECIPITOUS DECLINE INTO FINANCIAL RUIN.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on February 26, 2020, 02:09:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2020, 01:59:03 PM
After the positive open the broad market has turned red.  Maybe this was Mimsy's predicted bounce before continuing the PRECIPITOUS DECLINE INTO FINANCIAL RUIN.

If a few red days lead you to financial ruin, man, you gotta revaluate your position on risk management.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2020, 02:14:07 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on February 26, 2020, 02:09:40 PM
If a few red days lead you to financial ruin, man, you gotta revaluate your position on risk management.

The financial ruin is upcoming, not what has already happened.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 26, 2020, 02:41:14 PM
This crisis calls for an immediate government bail-out!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on February 26, 2020, 03:12:19 PM
Stand your ground and keep buying assets at lower prices.  :bowler:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 26, 2020, 03:14:03 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on February 26, 2020, 01:11:44 PM
Volatility to ignore. #longterminvestor

:cheers:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 28, 2020, 04:36:44 AM
I haven't added anything to my stock market account in ages due to the account being in the Netherlands and Brexit. So I am not seriously-seriously exposed to the growing shitshow.

But it still kinda hurts that I've got an automatic warning that my Lloyd's Bank shares lost 22% of their value in one day.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 02, 2020, 08:51:50 PM
Wee!

V-shaped dip or false recovery?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on March 03, 2020, 04:06:57 AM
I've been getting lots of text messages from people I usually don't talk to asking me what the hell to do.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 03, 2020, 04:07:40 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 03, 2020, 04:06:57 AM
I've been getting lots of text messages from people I usually don't talk to asking me what the hell to do.  :P

That must be annoying!

So, what did you tell them? :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 03, 2020, 08:48:17 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 03, 2020, 04:06:57 AM
I've been getting lots of text messages from people I usually don't talk to asking me what the hell to do.  :P

:lol: I offered to help someone set up their retirement/investment accounts some months ago when they said they were clueless about this stuff. Unbidden, he contacted me yesterday wanting to set up something. I shouldn't be surprised, and yet...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 03, 2020, 01:11:00 PM
Market not too appreciative of 50 basis point cut.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2020, 04:52:29 PM
Robin Hood crashed last two days.  Oops.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 04, 2020, 05:03:54 PM
Commentary from a blogger I read (Matt Levine):

QuoteI wrote yesterday that "one of the best services a retail broker can provide is not answering the phones during a crash": When the market is going down, retail investors often panic and sell at the worst time. Just turning off the phones—or, these days, the computers—can save your investors a lot of money. On the other hand online brokerage Robinhood's platform crashed this Monday, when the market was up 4.6% and lots of Robinhood customers were hoping to buy. That seems bad!

But it depends on what the counterfactual is. One reader emailed me the tongue-in-cheek headline "Market Rallies as Robinhood Outage Ends Panic Selling." Robinhood's platform was down basically all day Monday, and Monday was the first green day for stocks in over a week. Robinhood traders who were looking to buy, and couldn't, complained loudly; Robinhood traders who were looking to sell first thing Monday morning, and couldn't, were presumably quietly relieved. But what if there were a lot of the latter? What if they had all watched the market drop and made plans to sell on Monday, and the market would have gone even lower, but Robinhood's outage prevented them from doing so and led to the rally? Robinhood's problems were more or less fixed by yesterday, and the market dropped again. Hmm.

I'm kidding, I'm kidding, I don't really believe that the global stock market moves around with the whims of mobile-phone-based retail traders. But I did read that WallStreetBets story. Maybe the retail traders are more powerful than we think?

Anyway here is Robinhood's apology for the outage. It makes no mention of the theory (popular on Twitter and Reddit, but without any apparent evidence) that the problems were due to a Leap Day coding error. Instead it blames the problems on, just, too much going on:

QuoteWe now understand the cause of the outage was stress on our infrastructure—which struggled with unprecedented load. That in turn led to a "thundering herd" effect—triggering a failure of our DNS system.

Multiple factors contributed to the unprecedented load that ultimately led to the outages. The factors included, among others, highly volatile and historic market conditions; record volume; and record account sign-ups.

I have to say, if I ran an upstart brokerage firm that had to apologize for not having the infrastructure to support a lot of trades in a volatile market, I might stay away from the phrase "thundering herd." I get that it is a standard phrase in computer science, but it has a different meaning in the financial industry. There it usually refers to Merrill Lynch's giant army of retail brokers. Often these days, in a world of indexing and robo-advisers and online zero-commission trading, the "thundering herd" sounds a little quaint, but if you run an online zero-commission brokerage that breaks, you don't really want to remind your customers that your competitor has thousands of live brokers standing by to take their calls.

Elsewhere:

QuoteCustomers of Vanguard Group and Fidelity Investments had trouble accessing online accounts on Friday morning, angering investors who couldn't trade as stock
markets fell.

The S&P 500 closed on Friday at its lowest level since October; it has since rebounded. Vanguard and Fidelity did it right!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 04, 2020, 05:20:03 PM
Come to think of it, Etrade was slightly gimpy one day last week.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2020, 06:54:43 PM
I've been tracking the main Asian indices the last couple days to get like a leading indicator of the US market, but there does seem to be a disconnect.  Asian markets have all steadied in the green while US has been seesawing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: FunkMonk on March 06, 2020, 12:12:34 PM
I'll never get tired of Larry Kudlow advising people to buy at the dip.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 08, 2020, 09:48:30 PM
Asian markets all down.  S&P 500 futures fell 5% and a circuit breaker kicked in.  Could be a rough week or twelve.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on March 08, 2020, 11:34:58 PM
It's like 2008 all over again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 09, 2020, 04:52:44 AM
You guys let me know when I should start buying stuff.


Worst of all with the timing is that probably I will be forced to close my little stock account at the end of the year due to it being in the Netherlands and I am being a subject of Boris Johnson.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 09, 2020, 05:08:39 AM
You are still Hungarian too and a EU citizen; not a bad position to be in O pessimistic Magyar one  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 09, 2020, 05:41:14 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 09, 2020, 05:08:39 AM
You are still Hungarian too and a EU citizen; not a bad position to be in O pessimistic Magyar one  :P

Could be worse, I know. :P

But I have residence in Britain so the Dutch might not be able to keep managing my account. Or rather, to offer guarantees good enough to have me keep it with them.

Although I guess if prices won't recover until then, I can might as well just leave it with them and see what happens.  :D

But I will need a cheap British brokerage to start buying next summer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Maladict on March 09, 2020, 06:34:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 09, 2020, 05:41:14 AM

But I have residence in Britain so the Dutch might not be able to keep managing my account. Or rather, to offer guarantees good enough to have me keep it with them.


I'll take it off your hands. Special price, just for you  :shifty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: FunkMonk on March 09, 2020, 08:41:38 AM
*Market implodes*

Larry Kudlow: Buy at the dip guys!!!!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 09, 2020, 09:02:34 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 09, 2020, 04:52:44 AM
You guys let me know when I should start buying stuff.


Worst of all with the timing is that probably I will be forced to close my little stock account at the end of the year due to it being in the Netherlands and I am being a subject of Boris Johnson.

For what it is worth my financial guy isn't going to look at buying until early April.  He was selling into the blip of strength last week.  If I miss the front end of a recovery I am ok with that. 



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on March 09, 2020, 01:16:30 PM
Jesus Christ, this is a slaughter.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 09, 2020, 01:32:50 PM
Yeah, we're back to the dreadful days of...Dec. 2018.  :hmm:

If the losses keep coming, then I'll worry. The VIX being as high as it is is concerning, however.

On the bright side, if this keeps up, it might take away Trump's only realistic shield for 2020.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on March 09, 2020, 02:32:58 PM
Yeah. I look forward to hearing the brain-dead pundits talk about the inevitable "Biden Bounce".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2020, 03:01:18 PM
New financial buzz word seems to be "leg in."

I legged in today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 09, 2020, 03:01:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2020, 03:01:18 PM
New financial buzz word seems to be "leg in."

I legged in today.

What does that mean?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on March 09, 2020, 03:16:05 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 09, 2020, 01:32:50 PM
Yeah, we're back to the dreadful days of...Dec. 2018.  :hmm:

If the losses keep coming, then I'll worry. The VIX being as high as it is is concerning, however.

On the bright side, if this keeps up, it might take away Trump's only realistic shield for 2020.

I mean if we are going to have another economic collapse I guess it is better to have it right before the election than right after it.

But if we could not have one at all that would be preferable. Stupid infectious disease.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 09, 2020, 04:02:51 PM
Agreed on all fronts there.

In order of preference:
1: Virus ends tomorrow, no more deaths, market recovers, everything's great
2: Market keeps tanking, Trump loses hard
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 10, 2020, 11:54:48 AM
A little schizo today
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on March 12, 2020, 04:24:53 PM
How are people doing?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 12, 2020, 04:27:19 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 12, 2020, 04:24:53 PM
How are people doing?

Feeling like I missed getting on a flight that crashed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 04:27:27 PM
If you have a lot of cash on hand, what would you do?  Is it time to be greedy when others are fearful, or is there still plenty to be fearful about?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 12, 2020, 04:29:07 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 04:27:27 PM
If you have a lot of cash on hand, what would you do?  Is it time to be greedy when others are fearful, or is there still plenty to be fearful about?

I posted about this upthread.  My guy tells me not even to think about buying in until beginning of April. If he changes his view he will let me know.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2020, 04:32:32 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 04:27:27 PM
If you have a lot of cash on hand, what would you do?  Is it time to be greedy when others are fearful, or is there still plenty to be fearful about?

I heard a chick on CNBC say something interesting a couple days back:

We all know you should buy low and sell high.  This is what buying low looks like.  It's always scary.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 05:09:25 PM
What makes me extra wary is the possibility that this isn't just a coronavirus.  What if the market had been overheating for a while, especially with the tax cuts feeding stimulus right when we don't need it, and we were bound to be in for a deep recession anyway?  We may be seeing a crash that was overdue on its own and just finally triggered, and now we have the bubble pop coupled with the legitimate economic effect of coronavirus putting the downward pressure on everything.

But Yi's chick does make a good point.  It must be scary when it's a buying opportunity, or it wouldn't be a buying opportunity.  At some point you have to grab your balls and go for it, and hope that it isn't just a beginning of much worse things to come.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2020, 05:15:31 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 05:09:25 PM
What makes me extra wary is the possibility that this isn't just a coronavirus.  What if the market had been overheating for a while, especially with the tax cuts feeding stimulus right when we don't need it, and we were bound to be in for a deep recession anyway?  We may be seeing a crash that was overdue on its own and just finally triggered, and now we have the bubble pop coupled with the legitimate economic effect of coronavirus putting the downward pressure on everything.

Yeah, I think most people agreed PEs were stretched before the crash.  And then you can discuss what a reasonable PE is and get to a bottom.  The problem with that is because of covid we don't know what E will be.

The part I don't agree with is that a market correction leads automatically to a recession, just by itself.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: merithyn on March 12, 2020, 05:17:25 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on February 26, 2020, 03:23:14 AM
I'm in cash now apart from some gold stocks, some bonds and a couple of speculatives.

I think this virus will become a pandemic and will seriously disrupt the world economy.....so there will be a substantial adjustment to stockmarket values.

Of course I could easily be wrong  :P

Seems you weren't. :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 05:17:57 PM
Fair enough, I conflated the market crash with the economy, when these two shouldn't necessarily go together.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on March 12, 2020, 05:20:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 10, 2020, 11:54:48 AM
A little schizo today


Sorry,  I slept in and forgot to take my meds this morning.  I'll get right on that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on March 12, 2020, 05:23:54 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on March 12, 2020, 05:20:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 10, 2020, 11:54:48 AM
A little schizo today


Sorry,  I slept in and forgot to take my meds this morning.  I'll get right on that.

Sorry Raz, you can't take the credit for this, it takes a real destructive genius to pull of last night's stunt that has in part cratered the stock markets today, biggest loses in 33 years apparently.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on March 12, 2020, 05:25:30 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 12, 2020, 04:24:53 PM
How are people doing?

My investments are taking a beating but since I don't really plan on doing anything with them for a few decades I am not worried too much. I mean surely the market will have recovered by then.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: merithyn on March 12, 2020, 05:33:56 PM
I just tried to log in to my 401K portfolio and the website is down. :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2020, 05:35:47 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 12, 2020, 05:23:54 PM
Sorry Raz, you can't take the credit for this, it takes a real destructive genius to pull of last night's stunt that has in part cratered the stock markets today, biggest loses in 33 years apparently.

Really?  Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 12, 2020, 06:04:13 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 04:27:27 PM
If you have a lot of cash on hand, what would you do?  Is it time to be greedy when others are fearful, or is there still plenty to be fearful about?

I messed around with the TVIX today and made some cash with my fun money. I do not recommend this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 12, 2020, 06:05:26 PM
Quote from: Valmy on March 12, 2020, 05:25:30 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 12, 2020, 04:24:53 PM
How are people doing?

My investments are taking a beating but since I don't really plan on doing anything with them for a few decades I am not worried too much. I mean surely the market will have recovered by then.

This is the correct attitude. I log in every day because I'm obsessive, but I don't worry, counsel not worrying, and definitely don't fucking sell in times like these.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2020, 06:10:12 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 12, 2020, 06:04:13 PM
I messed around with the TVIX today and made some cash with my fun money. I do not recommend this.

You go long VIX or short?

U SO HARDCORE MANG
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 12, 2020, 06:43:14 PM
 :lol: Bought in on TVIX around $360 this morning and sold before I headed home from work. Fun throw of the dice.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 06:51:23 PM
Why are they going up so much?  Did they find a cure for the coronavirus?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 06:57:21 PM
My employer's stock lost 53% of its value in one month.  :yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2020, 07:00:31 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 06:51:23 PM
Why are they going up so much?  Did they find a cure for the coronavirus?

VIX is the volatility index.  It goes up when market volatility goes up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 07:01:30 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2020, 07:00:31 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 06:51:23 PM
Why are they going up so much?  Did they find a cure for the coronavirus?

VIX is the volatility index.  It goes up when market volatility goes up.
Oh.  :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2020, 07:16:22 PM
I recommend checking out CNBC once in a while if you don't now.  They compress a lot of information into little manageable bites.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2020, 07:20:58 PM
Plus they have a fair few cute presenters. :contract:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 12, 2020, 09:44:33 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 06:57:21 PM
My employer's stock lost 53% of its value in one month.  :yeah:

That seems bad. Hopefully you don't do the boner move and invest much in your own employer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 09:54:37 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 12, 2020, 09:44:33 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 12, 2020, 06:57:21 PM
My employer's stock lost 53% of its value in one month.  :yeah:

That seems bad. Hopefully you don't do the boner move and invest much in your own employer.
Oh, don't worry, I'm well aware that investing in my employer is a boner move.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on March 12, 2020, 09:55:51 PM
The rout continues in morning trading on the Asian markets.

Quote

In morning trading Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 was 9.7% lower, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was down by 6.9%, and China's Shanghai Composite had lost 3.4%.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on March 13, 2020, 04:54:47 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 12, 2020, 07:20:58 PM
Plus they have a fair few cute presenters. :contract:

Agreed, Cramer is cute, especially when he gets angry.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 13, 2020, 09:01:14 AM
My employer seems to have a beta of 2 when the stocks are going down, and a beta of 0 when the stocks are going up.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 13, 2020, 11:26:42 AM
Trump gives a conference in 2.5 hours or something. Time to buy puts on the entire market?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2020, 01:52:59 PM
Is this it?  The Big V Shaped Recovery?  Asian markets are all up
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on March 24, 2020, 02:25:02 PM
Good thing I completed our bi-weekly buy orders on Monday.   :P

But I expect a ton more turbulence to come, to be honest.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2020, 03:03:43 PM
I get it.  ^_^

Anyone else bought the dip yet?

And not in that cheapo 401k way..
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 24, 2020, 03:49:25 PM
Nope, the worst of the virus has yet to hit, there is a lot of Trumpist bullshit out there atm.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 24, 2020, 04:00:13 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2020, 01:52:59 PM
Is this it?  The Big V Shaped Recovery?  Asian markets are all up

I don't think so, no. Possible dead cat bounce. I'm fairly confident we begin to see strong movements downward again in the next two weeks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 25, 2020, 04:03:24 AM
I believe that the markets will continue to fall. But there are some great opportunities for people not afraid of risk. My fingers hovered over the buy button when Royal Dutch Shell fell below £10 here; decided not to risk it and now it is at £13.71.........heigh ho.....
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on March 25, 2020, 05:11:01 AM
Classic bear market bounce. We're re-testing the lows for sure.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 25, 2020, 09:48:42 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on March 25, 2020, 05:11:01 AM
Classic bear market bounce. We're re-testing the lows for sure.

I agree, the pandemic has not even started in earnest in the US yet, the UK is also yet to enter the toughest phase.

Then again, it is well-advised to listen to my views on the stock market and do the exact opposite :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on March 25, 2020, 10:42:53 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 25, 2020, 09:48:42 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on March 25, 2020, 05:11:01 AM
Classic bear market bounce. We're re-testing the lows for sure.

I agree, the pandemic has not even started in earnest in the US yet, the UK is also yet to enter the toughest phase.

Then again, it is well-advised to listen to my views on the stock market and do the exact opposite :P

This thread is now crying out for Ed Anger comments about emergency rations, money in buried coffee tins and guns.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on March 25, 2020, 12:34:44 PM
I really doubt we go more than 10% below the bottom. As far as the US markets go, I think we've seen the worst.

This is a short term issue and the stimulus bill is generous in providing unemployment benefits and financing to businesses.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 25, 2020, 01:04:53 PM
I bought DIS close to it bottoming out.  I expect to sell it for a tidy profit soon. :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 25, 2020, 01:11:45 PM
Cal is unafraid of drawing the evil eye to himself. :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on March 25, 2020, 04:11:18 PM
The what now? :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 25, 2020, 04:12:47 PM
The spirit force that punishes you when you openly express pride and satisfaction.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 25, 2020, 05:27:24 PM
Quote from: Caliga on March 25, 2020, 04:11:18 PM
The what now? :sleep:

Yi is superstitious
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on March 26, 2020, 12:41:00 PM
My portfolio was ca. 15% bonds before the crash. Simply rebalancing back to 15% would give me some additional cash to buy equities with.

But is now or even early next week the time to send the Imperil Guard in, and go down to 5-10% bonds? Or 0%?  :ph34r:

Or should I stay at 15% bonds?  :hmm:

Decisions, decisions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 26, 2020, 03:28:28 PM
Quote from: Camerus on March 26, 2020, 12:41:00 PM
My portfolio was ca. 15% bonds before the crash. Simply rebalancing back to 15% would give me some additional cash to buy equities with.

But is now or even early next week the time to send the Imperil Guard in, and go down to 5-10% bonds? Or 0%?  :ph34r:

Or should I stay at 15% bonds?  :hmm:

Decisions, decisions.

BUY BUY BUY
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 26, 2020, 10:01:46 PM
Just heard the interesting observation on CNBC that Warren hasn't made any big moves yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 27, 2020, 12:12:35 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 26, 2020, 10:01:46 PM
Just heard the interesting observation on CNBC that Warren hasn't made any big moves yet.
She's probably still busy binge watching replays of her debates with Bloomberg.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 27, 2020, 12:13:47 AM
Eh, Buffet
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on March 29, 2020, 06:45:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 27, 2020, 12:13:47 AM
Eh, Buffet

Hasn't Berkshire Hathaway been hammered by their exposure to Airlines?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 06:58:14 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 29, 2020, 06:45:20 PM
Hasn't Berkshire Hathaway been hammered by their exposure to Airlines?

They've been hammered because everything has been hammered.

Wasn't aware they had big airlines holdings.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on March 29, 2020, 07:03:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 06:58:14 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 29, 2020, 06:45:20 PM
Hasn't Berkshire Hathaway been hammered by their exposure to Airlines?

They've been hammered because everything has been hammered.

Wasn't aware they had big airlines holdings.

Yi, just what I read, not sure  how accurate it was.

I was interested in the contrast between an industry buggered inthe short-run (the virus) vs it's more traditional American brand holding etc.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 07:29:14 PM
Looks like you're right.  Significant minority stakes in four carriers.

Don't really know what you mean by:

an industry buggered inthe short-run (the virus) vs it's more traditional American brand holding etc.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 29, 2020, 07:50:37 PM
I'd also be concerned about his insurance holdings.  For Geico this whole thing must be a windfall, but he's also in reinsurance business.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 30, 2020, 08:38:36 AM
The market opens eerily flat.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 30, 2020, 01:10:08 PM
Mah REITs...


...are taking a pounding.  But that's gonna happen with the interest rate cuts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 31, 2020, 05:41:41 AM
Looking at finally taking the plunge into this and opening an account before the tax year is up. Not too much money for now. The drawbacks of price of transactions looks large.
What platform is the one to use?
I read Cavendish or nutmeg?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2020, 05:47:04 AM
Only the other Poms are going to be able to help you with that Squeeze.  Those brokerages don't operate here AFAIK.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 31, 2020, 06:59:14 AM
My current brokerage, which ran well enough through my banking platform/website...sold it's brokerage functions out to Charles Schwab, and is going make me switch over to there.  :ultra:

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on March 31, 2020, 07:21:34 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2020, 05:47:04 AM
Only the other Poms are going to be able to help you with that Squeeze.  Those brokerages don't operate here AFAIK.

Mongers International Trading Inc do an exceptional bespoke trading service.  :bowler:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2020, 07:44:03 AM
Quote from: mongers on March 31, 2020, 07:21:34 AM
Mongers International Trading Inc do an exceptional bespoke trading service.  :bowler:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dg76Qrhbkc
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 31, 2020, 10:01:21 AM
Surely there's a Vanguard-adjacent brokerage for the UK that offers low-cost mutual fund support and such?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 03, 2020, 03:41:57 AM
I went with cavedish, seemed the best for my beginner low value needs. Putting in just £50-100 a month to see what happens for now. Regarding it somewhat similar to the way some will bet on sports.

Now to decide on funds. Oddly the highest yield ones seem to have the lowest ratings. Will have to do a lot of reading about quite what this all means.  But I got it open before the 6th April deadline, thats the important part, can chill and look into it more on the weekend.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 03, 2020, 05:06:12 AM
Now is not the time to dick around Squeeze.  Now is the time to go all in.  Every penny you can spare, put in shares right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 03, 2020, 05:22:03 AM
Yi's shameless cheerleading to keep his stocks afloat aside, I do wonder when it's a good time to start buying. The US is nowhere near the peak of the epidemic.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 03, 2020, 10:28:34 AM
Now is a good time to start buying. So was yesterday. So is tomorrow.

Squeeze, what funds you want depends on what your goals are. Likely, you're looking at investing for retirement? Considering your age, you have plenty of room to maneuver. What you should be looking for is high diversification (IE, many, many companies) within an all-stock fund that also has low management fees.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on April 04, 2020, 09:17:11 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

Canned foods, coffee tins and shotgun cartridges.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2020, 09:34:15 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

I think you need to assess your own psychological downside risk.

Let's so you put it all on red and the market drops another 10%.  You will feel bad in a certain way.

Or let's say you put a portion in right now (you "leg in") and the market rises 10% before you can deploy the rest.  You feel bad in a different way.

Do the one you expect will make you feel less bad with an adverse result.  Missing out or being a chump.

Seems to me the vast majority of fund managers on CNBC are calling a bottom.  Some are calling it the buying opportunity of a life time.  Early anecdotal economic news out of China is good.

Most people seem to be saying watch out for highly leveraged companies, but if you're a fund-only guy you don't need to worry so much.

I've legged in throughout the correction, buying at 12% down, more at 20%, more at 30%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 04, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
I got screwed by that...like a moron I had been contributing the max to my HSA for years but just leaving it in cash. I never use the HSA, and when this started I realized I had about $30k in it.  :hmm:

I moved it to an index fund, on a friday morning. The market went up 10% that day after the great orange leader spoke at the end of the day. The money was invested at the end of the day. The market opened 12% down the following Monday. $3k gone in a poof of smoke, while the market was really at about the same level it was when I pushed the buy button.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 04, 2020, 10:10:51 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

The literature I've read on the subject says that dumping it all in at the same time is the correct move in this situation. Legging in/dollar-cost-averaging as Yi mentions is a valid strategy (and also the correct one for consistent contributions going forward), but if you've been sitting on a lump sum...now's the time to dump it in, in my opinion.

For further reading of bigger brains: http://vanguard.com/pdf/ISGDCA.pdf
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2020, 10:16:00 AM
linkee no workee
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 04, 2020, 10:30:28 AM
Thanks. Edited--should be fixed now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2020, 10:32:24 AM
Negatory Big Ben
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 04, 2020, 10:36:54 AM
:hmm: Maybe now?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 04, 2020, 10:38:15 AM
Dropbox link, regardless: https://www.dropbox.com/s/qsly8c8d069l7rh/ISGDCA.pdf?dl=0

Really wish I could just upload a PDF directly here, but Languish's 1990 size restrictions...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2020, 10:56:05 AM
The relevant graph in that article is at the end, relative performance of two approaches in different market conditions.

Unfortunately it just repackages what we already know in a different format.  If the market truly has bottomed, then of course you should go all in.  The problem is you only really know the bottom ex post.

Buying a dip is always a leap of faith.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 04, 2020, 11:01:03 AM
So via my current Dutch brokers I have pretty decent access to different markets. What should be my US index ETF of choice?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 04, 2020, 11:05:49 AM
VTI.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2020, 11:20:55 AM
Not really an ETF guy.  I like buying names.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 06, 2020, 06:56:29 PM
Student loan payments frozen at 0% interest until late September. Yee-haw. Time to invest the payments instead?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PDH on April 06, 2020, 07:14:33 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 06, 2020, 06:56:29 PM
Student loan payments frozen at 0% interest until late September. Yee-haw. Time to invest the payments instead?

Hmmm, end of September, that is right before October.  Time to invest in pumpkins!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 06, 2020, 07:24:43 PM
Pumpkin futures are in this year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on April 06, 2020, 07:38:04 PM
I gotta feeling they're gonna peak right around January.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2020, 12:21:57 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 06, 2020, 06:56:29 PM
Student loan payments frozen at 0% interest until late September. Yee-haw. Time to invest the payments instead?

What rate are you paying on your loans?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 07, 2020, 08:05:49 AM
They're all pretty modest--~3.5-4.2%. I don't think it makes sense to pay those more quickly, especially with the potential for the loans all being wiped away by Congress.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2020, 01:37:26 AM
S&P 500 is up 23% from it's 3/23 bottom.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 08:31:59 AM
I'm expecting another dip, but otherwise am somewhat optimistic that we'll start the ready return to the top. It will probably take a couple years, though, and assumes this is more an economic panic than a recession/depression.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2020, 08:34:28 AM
Are you keeping any powder dry Seppuku?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 08:36:53 AM
Always do, but I run fairly conservatively with my finances--IE, holding back way more than the general recommendation of 3 months worth of emergency expenses. I put a modest portion of my excess in when the mess started and am happy with how that did, and also played around a bit with TVIX when it was bouncing around 5-800.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2020, 08:50:15 AM
I meant more in the sense of sitting on cash that you're going to leg in at some point in the future.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 08:52:01 AM
That's what I meant by holding on to too much excess, but was a little opaque on that. I keep a high level of emergency funds saved back in case of catastrophe, but am also willing to kick in a bit of it short term if I see a good buying opportunity like, say, a pandemic panic or a housing crash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 09, 2020, 10:14:39 AM
I picked up some SDIV last week at a 17% yield.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2020, 10:29:19 AM
So far I have bought Google, Skechers (Nike knock off manufacturer), and added to Canopy Growth (pot) and Tesla.

I would like to buy some Visa if I could figure out how to open a Roth on the suddenly very hinky Etrade platform.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 10:55:48 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 04, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
I got screwed by that...like a moron I had been contributing the max to my HSA for years but just leaving it in cash. I never use the HSA, and when this started I realized I had about $30k in it.  :hmm:

I moved it to an index fund, on a friday morning. The market went up 10% that day after the great orange leader spoke at the end of the day. The money was invested at the end of the day. The market opened 12% down the following Monday. $3k gone in a poof of smoke, while the market was really at about the same level it was when I pushed the buy button.

I'm guessing you aren't screwed by this any more.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 10:56:38 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2020, 10:29:19 AM
So far I have bought Google, Skechers (Nike knock off manufacturer), and added to Canopy Growth (pot) and Tesla.

I would like to buy some Visa if I could figure out how to open a Roth on the suddenly very hinky Etrade platform.

Your lack of diversification scares the bejesus out of me, but I also do the same with fun money, so what the fuck do I know?

Why Etrade instead of Vanguard or someone else for the Roth?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2020, 11:09:21 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 10:56:38 AM
Why Etrade instead of Vanguard or someone else for the Roth?

I guess I could.  I've been with Etrade for 11 years and I like to be a loyal customer. :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 09, 2020, 11:15:37 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 10:55:48 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 04, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
I got screwed by that...like a moron I had been contributing the max to my HSA for years but just leaving it in cash. I never use the HSA, and when this started I realized I had about $30k in it.  :hmm:

I moved it to an index fund, on a friday morning. The market went up 10% that day after the great orange leader spoke at the end of the day. The money was invested at the end of the day. The market opened 12% down the following Monday. $3k gone in a poof of smoke, while the market was really at about the same level it was when I pushed the buy button.

I'm guessing you aren't screwed by this any more.  :P

It is still $3k gone...that will never change.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2020, 11:19:57 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 10:56:38 AM
Your lack of diversification scares the bejesus out of me, but I also do the same with fun money, so what the fuck do I know?

Just to be clear, that's just what I bought this dip, not all my holdings.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 11:23:05 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2020, 11:19:57 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 10:56:38 AM
Your lack of diversification scares the bejesus out of me, but I also do the same with fun money, so what the fuck do I know?

Just to be clear, that's just what I bought this dip, not all my holdings.

:cheers:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 09, 2020, 11:25:36 AM
I have given the green light to my guy to start investing.  So probably best to run for the hills.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 09, 2020, 06:12:59 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 09, 2020, 11:25:36 AM
I have given the green light to my guy to start investing.  So probably best to run for the hills.

Don't worry. I could not convince myself to pull the trigger this week, so a massive rally is imminent :p
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 06:18:06 PM
Is imminent, has already happened, is happening...

(https://i.ibb.co/Sxj8K4R/VTI5day.png) (https://ibb.co/yR918cW)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 09, 2020, 06:45:26 PM
That is very much depends on the time frame you look at :p

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 06:47:37 PM
I'm mostly just poking fun at the hemming and hawing over buying after such a downspot in the market. You know everything's down 20-30% from the top, but are still hesitant? Even if it went down another 10% tomorrow, I'd consider the price good, long-term.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 09, 2020, 08:42:11 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 06:47:37 PM
I'm mostly just poking fun at the hemming and hawing over buying after such a downspot in the market. You know everything's down 20-30% from the top, but are still hesitant? Even if it went down another 10% tomorrow, I'd consider the price good, long-term.  :P
This kind of thinking would not work out well in Japan exactly 30 years ago.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 08:45:50 PM
Fortunately, we're not Japan.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 10, 2020, 07:08:51 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 06:47:37 PM
I'm mostly just poking fun at the hemming and hawing over buying after such a downspot in the market. You know everything's down 20-30% from the top, but are still hesitant? Even if it went down another 10% tomorrow, I'd consider the price good, long-term.  :P

Yeah, that was my logic.  If the market drops over the next 6 months and then increases I am ok with that.  I don't want to try to time the bottom perfectly.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 10, 2020, 09:44:50 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 09, 2020, 06:47:37 PM
I'm mostly just poking fun at the hemming and hawing over buying after such a downspot in the market. You know everything's down 20-30% from the top, but are still hesitant? Even if it went down another 10% tomorrow, I'd consider the price good, long-term.  :P

Actual value has been destroyed.

The S&P 500 is a lot lower than it used to be, but it includes companies like Boeing, Airlines, hotel companies, Carnival Cruise Lines, retailers like Macy's, restaurant groups, oil companies...

Even for the companies not as directly harmed as those, their valuations must be different if we initially assumed a economy producing a 3.5% unemployment rate quickly transformed into an economy with double digit inflation.

Finally, the market value of the US stock market is really dominated by multinationals. Put aside that other countries have closed down much more than the US and the US stimulus plan hasn't been matched in comparable size in many other places. The dollar has strengthened significantly. This is a major blow to the earnings of multinationals, as the USD equivalent of their foreign earnings is now less.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 10, 2020, 09:58:36 AM
I don't disagree with any of that. I am purely speaking from a long-term perspective here. I don't expect the market to suddenly start piling up double-digit growth because of all the dislocations and damage that's been done.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 11:00:10 AM
My concern is that we don't actually have COVID-19 effect priced in.  The 20%-25% drop in the market prices could've come out on nowhere, even without the virus, as the widespread belief was that the market was a little too hot.  Then you have to factor in the already realized effects of COVID-19, and on top of that you have to factor the potential for secondary economic fallout if the ramp up to normal life is handled poorly, and numerous otherwise viable businesses go bust because the shock to the economy wasn't managed well.  With all those factors combined in mind, I'm not sure that a 25% drop is it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 10, 2020, 11:06:04 AM
Those are all very valid concerns. My personal view is that I'm willing to take the risk of another significant drop in the short-to-mid-term and count the 20-30% drop we have already as enough inducement to buy in further.

Timing the bottom is always going to be difficult in any time where so much is unknown and changes on a weekly basis, but everyone has to make their own call as to how long they think is acceptable before they commit anything significant beyond what they're (hopefully) already doing on a regular basis.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 10, 2020, 11:20:18 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 09, 2020, 10:29:19 AM
So far I have bought Google, Skechers (Nike knock off manufacturer), and added to Canopy Growth (pot) and Tesla.

I would like to buy some Visa if I could figure out how to open a Roth on the suddenly very hinky Etrade platform.

How much does it cost you to buy stocks directly? (on top of the actual price of the stock or course)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 10, 2020, 11:32:20 AM
Used to be nine bucks a trade but now zero. Sixty five cents for options contracts.

https://www.tdameritrade.com/retail-en_us/resources/pdf/TDA4075.pdf

Almost all brokers offer a certain number of free trades for new accounts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 10, 2020, 12:13:30 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 11:00:10 AM
My concern is that we don't actually have COVID-19 effect priced in.  The 20%-25% drop in the market prices could've come out on nowhere, even without the virus, as the widespread belief was that the market was a little too hot.  Then you have to factor in the already realized effects of COVID-19, and on top of that you have to factor the potential for secondary economic fallout if the ramp up to normal life is handled poorly, and numerous otherwise viable businesses go bust because the shock to the economy wasn't managed well.  With all those factors combined in mind, I'm not sure that a 25% drop is it.

If you are waiting to be sure that there will not be another drop then you probably have time lines that are too short to be thinking about equities in the first place, unless you are a day trader, in which case good luck.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 10, 2020, 12:19:27 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 10, 2020, 11:32:20 AM
Used to be nine bucks a trade but now zero. Sixty five cents for options contracts.

https://www.tdameritrade.com/retail-en_us/resources/pdf/TDA4075.pdf

Almost all brokers offer a certain number of free trades for new accounts.
Yeah, I noticed when I bought DIS a few weeks back I wasn't charged commission (I have an Ameritrade account).  Didn't realize that they had waived commission. :huh:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on April 10, 2020, 12:25:47 PM
I feel this virus will largely kill off market and economic optimism for sometime, which was after all significantly behind the ramp up in stock markets during Trumps first administration, despite his wide ranging incompetence.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 10, 2020, 12:38:53 PM
Quote from: Caliga on April 10, 2020, 12:19:27 PMI noticed when I bought DIS a few weeks back

Stay away from the destroyers of Star Wars.  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on April 10, 2020, 12:59:33 PM
(https://radiosurvivor.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/no-cat-225x300.jpg)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 10, 2020, 01:10:27 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 10, 2020, 12:13:30 PM


If you are waiting to be sure that there will not be another drop then you probably have time lines that are too short to be thinking about equities in the first place, unless you are a day trader, in which case good luck.

Theoretically you should be looking at buying stocks the same way as an interest in any other company. Ie, looking at the cash flow projections of the business and discounting them back to a present value at a risk adjusted rate - and then comparing that value to the price you are asked to pay.

Looking at the current asking price to buy in to a stock (or bundle of stocks/index) and judging that as too expensive is not indicative of being a day trader.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 01:42:32 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 10, 2020, 12:13:30 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 11:00:10 AM
My concern is that we don't actually have COVID-19 effect priced in.  The 20%-25% drop in the market prices could've come out on nowhere, even without the virus, as the widespread belief was that the market was a little too hot.  Then you have to factor in the already realized effects of COVID-19, and on top of that you have to factor the potential for secondary economic fallout if the ramp up to normal life is handled poorly, and numerous otherwise viable businesses go bust because the shock to the economy wasn't managed well.  With all those factors combined in mind, I'm not sure that a 25% drop is it.

If you are waiting to be sure that there will not be another drop then you probably have time lines that are too short to be thinking about equities in the first place, unless you are a day trader, in which case good luck.
Doesn't matter what your investment horizon is, buying something before it falls in price is a loss.  It's a loss whether you buy it for one week or for 500 years.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 10, 2020, 02:02:24 PM
I think misunderstood
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 02:16:16 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 10, 2020, 02:02:24 PM
I think misunderstood
:unsure: I think you need to find a place with a better reception.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2020, 04:28:09 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 10, 2020, 11:20:18 AM
How much does it cost you to buy stocks directly? (on top of the actual price of the stock or course)

Everyone went zero commission not long after Robin Hood showed up.

How much do you pay?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2020, 04:57:31 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 10, 2020, 09:44:50 AM
Actual value has been destroyed.

The S&P 500 is a lot lower than it used to be, but it includes companies like Boeing, Airlines, hotel companies, Carnival Cruise Lines, retailers like Macy's, restaurant groups, oil companies...

Even for the companies not as directly harmed as those, their valuations must be different if we initially assumed a economy producing a 3.5% unemployment rate quickly transformed into an economy with double digit inflation.

Finally, the market value of the US stock market is really dominated by multinationals. Put aside that other countries have closed down much more than the US and the US stimulus plan hasn't been matched in comparable size in many other places. The dollar has strengthened significantly. This is a major blow to the earnings of multinationals, as the USD equivalent of their foreign earnings is now less.

What exactly is your point Fredo?

That the stock market has declined?  That the economy is contracting?  We know that.  What are you arguing against?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 10, 2020, 05:18:06 PM
The market was overvalued. In early February, the S&P's PE ratio was 25. Today it's about 21. It should be below fifteen. It might not actually be even that low after dinged up companies report their dinged up quarterly earnings reports. It's not unreasonable to say that the value that was destroyed was never really there to begin with.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 10, 2020, 05:41:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2020, 04:57:31 PM
What exactly is your point Fredo?

That the stock market has declined?  That the economy is contracting?  We know that.  What are you arguing against?

Maybe no one.

I was getting a sense that a part of the argument for buying now was that this is a better buying time because prices are lower than they were a few months ago. While they are lower, and all else being equal it is better to buy something at a lower price than a high price, the reality that has unfolded is one of the more negative scenarios that would have been projected (ahead of a major supervolcano eruption or unrestrained nuclear war, but behind most others).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 10, 2020, 05:41:59 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 10, 2020, 05:18:06 PM
The market was overvalued. In early February, the S&P's PE ratio was 25. Today it's about 21. It should be below fifteen. It might not actually be even that low after dinged up companies report their dinged up quarterly earnings reports. It's not unreasonable to say that the value that was destroyed was never really there to begin with.

I'm going to register my previously stated passionate hatred of PE ratios.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2020, 05:54:11 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 10, 2020, 05:18:06 PM
The market was overvalued. In early February, the S&P's PE ratio was 25. Today it's about 21. It should be below fifteen. It might not actually be even that low after dinged up companies report their dinged up quarterly earnings reports. It's not unreasonable to say that the value that was destroyed was never really there to begin with.

Taking PE as a historical constant does not account for the opportunity cost, which is bond yields.  Not even Schiller has been pushing this thesis for a while now.  Even our own illustrious Joan has been silent on the subject.  As long as the Fed keeps pumping money and the bonds stay at 1.5-2%, higher stock PEs are justified. (Although I think most people agree that PEs were stretcheed even accepting this logic in early February.)

Now of course the Great Stock Bubble is imperiled (implodes?) when the Fed needs to tighten in response to inflation, but for some inexplicable reason inflation is not materializing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 06:27:46 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2020, 05:54:11 PM
Now of course the Great Stock Bubble is imperiled (implodes?) when the Fed needs to tighten in response to inflation, but for some inexplicable reason inflation is not materializing.
I don't see why it's so inexplicable.  The money is going to the people who are buying Vanguard ETFs, not the people who are buying basic goods and services.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 10, 2020, 07:31:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2020, 05:54:11 PM
Taking PE as a historical constant does not account for the opportunity cost, which is bond yields.  Not even Schiller has been pushing this thesis for a while now.  Even our own illustrious Joan has been silent on the subject.  As long as the Fed keeps pumping money and the bonds stay at 1.5-2%, higher stock PEs are justified. (Although I think most people agree that PEs were stretcheed even accepting this logic in early February.)

Now of course the Great Stock Bubble is imperiled (implodes?) when the Fed needs to tighten in response to inflation, but for some inexplicable reason inflation is not materializing.

Taking PEs as a historical benchmark has the added problem that "E" is an accounting answer. The accounting rules that lead to that answer have changed dramatically over the years, and the rules lead to rather dramatic differences across industries (for example, you would generally expect a tech company to have a low PE versus an industrial company, even if they had the same projected growth).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2020, 09:32:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 06:27:46 PM
I don't see why it's so inexplicable.  The money is going to the people who are buying Vanguard ETFs, not the people who are buying basic goods and services.

Are you maybe looking at an increased savings rate?  Increased liquidity is not an argument in that function.

Unless you're claiming there has been a decrease in business investment and consumer credit use in favor of leveraged stock purchase, liquidity doesn't have the effect you claim.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2020, 09:33:36 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 10, 2020, 07:31:39 PM
Taking PEs as a historical benchmark has the added problem that "E" is an accounting answer. The accounting rules that lead to that answer have changed dramatically over the years, and the rules lead to rather dramatic differences across industries (for example, you would generally expect a tech company to have a low PE versus an industrial company, even if they had the same projected growth).

Actuarities always gotta be boring up every thread.  :rolleyes:

If you don't like earnings then look at free cash flow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 10, 2020, 09:39:32 PM
All numbers like that are only useful in relative ways. Nothing is ever exact. GDP doesn't actually measure the real domestic product, CPI doesn't measure the real inflation, etc. They're still useful though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2020, 01:49:34 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 10, 2020, 05:41:07 PM
Maybe no one.

I was getting a sense that a part of the argument for buying now was that this is a better buying time because prices are lower than they were a few months ago. While they are lower, and all else being equal it is better to buy something at a lower price than a high price, the reality that has unfolded is one of the more negative scenarios that would have been projected (ahead of a major supervolcano eruption or unrestrained nuclear war, but behind most others).

If I follow you correctly, you're arguing a straw man.  No one says earnings are not going to be impacted and that we're going to zip back up to the February highs in a straight line.

The guys I was listening to on CNBC were saying given the impact on earnings in the near and medium term, stocks are still underpriced.  One guy pointed out that the current year's earnings only account for 90% of a stock price's value.  You with your constant mantra of NPV of future earnings, of all people, should understand that.

Or at least stock were underpriced back in March.  Some of you Johnny Come Lately's might have missed out.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 11, 2020, 02:43:52 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2020, 01:49:34 AMNPV of future earnings

The reason I don't like that method of valuation is future earnings haven't happened yet, and might never if the projections don't work out. If there's a scandal, terrorist attack, pandemic or something.

I prefer to pay a fair price for what a company's doing right now, not pay today a price that would be a good deal this time next year if the projections work out.

I know that means that next year, people will be paying two years from now's price, but hey. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2020, 03:26:00 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 11, 2020, 02:43:52 AM
The reason I don't like that method of valuation is future earnings haven't happened yet, and might never if the projections don't work out. If there's a scandal, terrorist attack, pandemic or something.

I prefer to pay a fair price for what a company's doing right now, not pay today a price that would be a good deal this time next year if the projections work out.

I know that means that next year, people will be paying two years from now's price, but hey. :P

This year's earnings haven't happened yet either.  Your valuation method makes every stock worth zero.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2020, 01:07:10 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aF2L_G49eIA

This guy says we're going to retest the low, so folks who are thinking about jumping in now might want to wait a bit.

A guy this ugly has to know what he's talking about.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 11, 2020, 07:54:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 02:16:16 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 10, 2020, 02:02:24 PM
I think misunderstood
:unsure: I think you need to find a place with a better reception.

A place without idiots.  Good idea  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 11, 2020, 08:43:32 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 11, 2020, 07:54:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 02:16:16 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 10, 2020, 02:02:24 PM
I think misunderstood
:unsure: I think you need to find a place with a better reception.

A place without idiots.  Good idea  :)
I don't think you will ever find it in your lifetime.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: grumbler on April 11, 2020, 08:47:20 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 11, 2020, 07:54:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 10, 2020, 02:16:16 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 10, 2020, 02:02:24 PM
I think misunderstood
:unsure: I think you need to find a place with a better reception.

A place without idiots.  Good idea  :)

And if you go there, we will be one.  I like this plan.  Except, of course, that this plan has been promised multiple times in the past and we always end up with you posting again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 12, 2020, 07:46:05 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 10, 2020, 09:33:36 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 10, 2020, 07:31:39 PM
Taking PEs as a historical benchmark has the added problem that "E" is an accounting answer. The accounting rules that lead to that answer have changed dramatically over the years, and the rules lead to rather dramatic differences across industries (for example, you would generally expect a tech company to have a low PE versus an industrial company, even if they had the same projected growth).

Actuarities always gotta be boring up every thread.  :rolleyes:

If you don't like earnings then look at free cash flow.

Free cash flow is much better.

No one buying a business would use a PE ratio--they might use an EBITDA multiple, discounted cash flow model, or something else, but I've never seen a PE ratio.

An example (of a zillion of them)--we used to amortize goodwill over 40 years (goodwill being the excess amount paid for a business over the value of the other assets--it can be a very substantial part of many company's balance sheets). That means 1/40th of the balance is recorded of the expense and reduces net income (the E in a PE ratio). Obviously this was completely arbitrary, so the rule got changed so it is no longer amortized--it never hits net income at all (there are certain circumstances, but those rules are complex). Today the board is contemplating reinstating the amortization of goodwill, and making the period 10 years.

The point being that accounting is an arbitrary process that has dramatically changed over time. The rules in the 1970s are materially different than the 2020s, as are the businesses. If you want to talk about historical averages, you should be adjusting the "E" for these changes, and applying them to industry standards (with the mix changing over time).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 12, 2020, 07:51:01 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 10, 2020, 05:18:06 PM
The market was overvalued. In early February, the S&P's PE ratio was 25. Today it's about 21. It should be below fifteen. It might not actually be even that low after dinged up companies report their dinged up quarterly earnings reports. It's not unreasonable to say that the value that was destroyed was never really there to begin with.

Why should it be below 15?

That implies you are getting earnings of 6.7% on your investment. Is that a good return? I don't know, but for market segments that don't require significant investments and are stable or growing, that may be a rich return with interest rates where they are.

Also, who knows what is going to happen with earnings, but obviously a lot of companies are going to get hammered. If earnings fall 80% for a company, or it has losses the first half of the year, I don't think that implies the value should fall dramatically if liquidity isn't a concern and projections for 2021 and beyond remain mostly intact.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on April 13, 2020, 01:44:54 PM
15 is where it goes when it snaps back.

I'm really wary--afraid actually--of "this time is different" or "new normal" methodologies. I'm afraid of succumbing to them. I'm also wary of limiting my view of reality to my own lifetime.

(https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/3/20/6932-14899985812969568.png)

This writer is arguing from that perspective. But when I look at that chart I see a 40 year distortion. Like the famous GDP vs wages comparison or home prices vs wage comparison. They all sort of correlate, even.

Piketty described the entire post-war period in the West as a multigenerational aberration, so it's not unprecedented.

There are lots of good explanations for higher ratios. Fed rates, online/retail trading, computer trading, regulations, etc. They all make sense and are considered structurally new and permanent things. What about railroads. Weren't they a permanent structural change in the way the economy works? Standardized shipping containers maybe even moreso? Long-distance trucking and interstates, FDIC, 401ks, accounting rules, there are lots of things that could be called permanent structural changes in the economy or how the market itself works, but none of them seem to have altered the basic ratios much in the long run.

Quote from: cc
That implies you are getting earnings of 6.7% on your investment.

The dividend is my return. Anything else requires selling/trading. Stocks (S&P) generally return a remarkably stable ~2% yield.

I'm aware that this secular shift might last our whole lifetimes, and that would mean that at least for us it's effectively a new normal. Why I use 15 and not 13. Watching the ratios has been a successful strategy for me even so. It's how I nailed Shenzhen. I went to 50% cash around the state of the union in all our retirement accounts and lost a month's profits because the S&P was approaching 25.  :lol:

It's definitely too quick and dirty, but it does work fairly well. At least it has for me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 13, 2020, 01:57:38 PM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 13, 2020, 01:44:54 PM

I'm really wary--afraid actually--of "this time is different" or "new normal" methodologies. I'm afraid of succumbing to them. I'm also wary of limiting my view of reality to my own lifetime.


The discounted cash flow model is not some "new normal" methodology:

QuoteDiscounted cash flow calculations have been used in some form since money was first lent at interest in ancient times. Studies of ancient Egyptian and Babylonian mathematics suggest that they used techniques similar to discounting of the future cash flows. This method of asset valuation differentiated between the accounting book value, which is based on the amount paid for the asset.[2] Following the stock market crash of 1929, discounted cash flow analysis gained popularity as a valuation method for stocks. Irving Fisher in his 1930 book The Theory of Interest and John Burr Williams's 1938 text The Theory of Investment Value first formally expressed the DCF method in modern economic terms.[3]

From wikipedia.

There are a lot of issues with the chart below, and I think to an extent it tends toward numerology. I would like to point out that the most massive spike in the chart is also the point at which you could generate some of the most massive returns in the past 50 years - that coincided with the financial crash when earnings plummeted. The spike in PE ratios wasn't because the market was overvalued (it appears it was significantly undervalued) but because the "E" had a short term and dramatic decline.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 13, 2020, 09:29:21 PM
Mimsy:  Fredo and I are not bringing up easy money as the equivalent of some disruptive technology, but as the determinant of the next best use of your money besides investing in stocks: bond yields.  A historical PE of 15, converted to earnings yield, gets 6.7%.  That compares reasonably to historical bond yields of, what, 4.5-5%?  Now compare the modern 25 PE, yielding 4%, to current bond yields of what, 1.5-2%?  The point is when 10 years are yielding 80 basis points you're going to settle for a pretty minimal equity yield.

That's leaving out what I consider to be an overlooked aspect of current PEs, which is the abundance of loss-making or break-even, potentially disruptive growth companies.  Amazon is a famous example.  Amazon's earnings are notoriously tiny compared to its revenues, but its growth is unstoppable. And it has enormous market cap means its ridiculous PE (60 last time I checked before The Plague) is going to push overall market PE dramatically. Tesla is another one that I am familiar with.  No full year of profitability yet, so PE is infinite.  I think people preaching the reversion to 15 PE line fail to account for this increase in "growth" stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2020, 02:40:04 AM
Norway's sovereign wealth fund owns 1.5% of global market capitalization.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2020, 08:37:26 AM
Tesla is going nutter butter again. :wacko:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 14, 2020, 09:31:04 AM
I have long since given up on figuring Tesla's price out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 14, 2020, 09:51:28 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 13, 2020, 09:29:21 PM
Mimsy:  Fredo and I are not bringing up easy money as the equivalent of some disruptive technology, but as the determinant of the next best use of your money besides investing in stocks: bond yields.  A historical PE of 15, converted to earnings yield, gets 6.7%.  That compares reasonably to historical bond yields of, what, 4.5-5%?  Now compare the modern 25 PE, yielding 4%, to current bond yields of what, 1.5-2%?  The point is when 10 years are yielding 80 basis points you're going to settle for a pretty minimal equity yield.

That's leaving out what I consider to be an overlooked aspect of current PEs, which is the abundance of loss-making or break-even, potentially disruptive growth companies.  Amazon is a famous example.  Amazon's earnings are notoriously tiny compared to its revenues, but its growth is unstoppable. And it has enormous market cap means its ridiculous PE (60 last time I checked before The Plague) is going to push overall market PE dramatically. Tesla is another one that I am familiar with.  No full year of profitability yet, so PE is infinite.  I think people preaching the reversion to 15 PE line fail to account for this increase in "growth" stocks.

I'm going to go accountant on everyone for a second, but I think that this is a very important point so try to hang with me. This was the major pet peeve of Bill Gates in the 90s (he lost the arguments with the accounting gods).

A manufacturer (like Ford) invests for the future by buying machinery and equipment.

A technology company (like Microsoft) invests for the future by investing in R&D and people.

If you buy Machinery and Equipment for $1 million, you have an asset on the balance sheet for $1 million (no immediate impact on earnings).

If you spend $1 million on R&D, or recruiting an awesome team of software engineers, you have $1 million of expenses that go through the income statement (immediately reducing your earnings).

The point being: If Ford has a PE of 15, that doesn't mean it can pay 6.7% to shareholders: it has to invest in machinery and equipment - not just for growth but also to just keep its plants running (as stuff wears out, you need new stuff). It might not even be able to pay anything. If Microsoft has a PE of 15, because its investments are largely reflected in the "E", it might be able to pay something close to 6.7%.

If in the Ford economy a PE of 15 was a fair return, you would expect the average PE to go up as the economy shifts to a Microsoft economy, even before we consider what has happened with interest rates.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2020, 10:30:40 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 14, 2020, 09:51:28 AM
The point being: If Ford has a PE of 15, that doesn't mean it can pay 6.7% to shareholders: it has to invest in machinery and equipment - not just for growth but also to just keep its plants running (as stuff wears out, you need new stuff). It might not even be able to pay anything.

But depreciation *is* an expense.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 14, 2020, 10:34:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2020, 10:30:40 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 14, 2020, 09:51:28 AM
The point being: If Ford has a PE of 15, that doesn't mean it can pay 6.7% to shareholders: it has to invest in machinery and equipment - not just for growth but also to just keep its plants running (as stuff wears out, you need new stuff). It might not even be able to pay anything.

But depreciation *is* an expense.

It is, but depending on the policy, it may be over 20 years or more. With inflation and even modest growth in the business, it doesn't even out. Microsoft takes 100% of the hit today; Ford is still taking some of it a couple decades from now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2020, 10:42:11 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 14, 2020, 10:34:55 AM
It is, but depending on the policy, it may be over 20 years or more. With inflation and even modest growth in the business, it doesn't even out. Microsoft takes 100% of the hit today; Ford is still taking some of it a couple decades from now.

So, are you saying if depreciation was not a thing, and Ford had to expense equipment purchases today, Ford would have a higher PE? :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 14, 2020, 10:56:28 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2020, 10:42:11 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 14, 2020, 10:34:55 AM
It is, but depending on the policy, it may be over 20 years or more. With inflation and even modest growth in the business, it doesn't even out. Microsoft takes 100% of the hit today; Ford is still taking some of it a couple decades from now.

So, are you saying if depreciation was not a thing, and Ford had to expense equipment purchases today, Ford would have a higher PE? :unsure:

Absolutely.

Why wouldn't it? Whether Ford depreciates equipment over 50 years, 20 years, 5 years, or immediately--that has no cash flow impact - it is just book accounting. It doesn't even impact taxes because tax depreciation is separate from book accounting (which is used to compute earnings). It shouldn't impact the valuation of the company in any way.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2020, 12:00:33 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 14, 2020, 10:56:28 AM
Absolutely.

Why wouldn't it? Whether Ford depreciates equipment over 50 years, 20 years, 5 years, or immediately--that has no cash flow impact - it is just book accounting. It doesn't even impact taxes because tax depreciation is separate from book accounting (which is used to compute earnings). It shouldn't impact the valuation of the company in any way.

Ford buys equipment for $100.  This equipment generates $20 in annual revenue for  the life of the machine.

Scenario A, Ford expenses the equipment in year one.  That year Ford has minus $80 in cash flow.  Every year after it has 20 positive cash flow.

Scenario B, Ford amortizes the equipment over 20 year, 5 depreciation/year.  "Earnings" are 15 /year.

You said if Ford expensed equpment, it would have a higher PE.  P has to stay the same, because its the same profit stream.  That means E has to be lower in scenario A.  E is in fact lower in year 1; it's negative.  But it's higher in the out years. 

So, I still don't see your point.  Explain to me, very simply, as you would to a young child or a golden retriever, how E is lower in scenario A.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 14, 2020, 12:31:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2020, 12:00:33 PM

Ford buys equipment for $100.  This equipment generates $20 in annual revenue for  the life of the machine.

Scenario A, Ford expenses the equipment in year one.  That year Ford has minus $80 in cash flow.  Every year after it has 20 positive cash flow.

Scenario B, Ford amortizes the equipment over 20 year, 5 depreciation/year.  "Earnings" are 15 /year.

You said if Ford expensed equpment, it would have a higher PE.  P has to stay the same, because its the same profit stream.  That means E has to be lower in scenario A.  E is in fact lower in year 1; it's negative.  But it's higher in the out years. 

So, I still don't see your point.  Explain to me, very simply, as you would to a young child or a golden retriever, how E is lower in scenario A.

Over a theoretical long term like you just laid out, where Ford just makes one purchase over 20 years, over a 20 year cycle it balances out. In reality there is inflation and business growth. The dollar value of the purchases in year 1 are greater than the preceding years.

I looked up the actual financial disclosures of Ford. I'm going to use 2018 (just because 2019 Ford was at breakeven).

Net Income for its shareholders (the E) was $3.7 billion.

Putting aside ford capital, capital spending was $7.7 billion and depreciation/amortization was $5.4 billion.

If you were to take your "expense it all day 1" perspective, there would be an additional $2.1 billion reduction to net income, and the E would go down from $3.7 billion to $1.6 billion. Whatever the PE was would more than double.

2018 wasn't an outlier--Ford disclosed 3 years, and for each year of 2017-2019 the capital spending exceeded depreciation/amortization by $2.0 - $2.3 billion each year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 14, 2020, 01:06:16 PM
Throg head hurt.  Throg must rest.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 16, 2020, 06:16:41 PM
A lot of action after hours on news Gilead Science might a cure for covid 19.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on April 17, 2020, 02:54:04 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 16, 2020, 06:16:41 PM
A lot of action after hours on news Gilead Science might a cure for covid 19.

Which seems like irresponsible reporting based on what was released.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2020, 03:31:51 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 17, 2020, 02:54:04 AM
Which seems like irresponsible reporting based on what was released.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

You don't like the word "cure?" 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on April 17, 2020, 05:57:19 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2020, 03:31:51 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 17, 2020, 02:54:04 AM
Which seems like irresponsible reporting based on what was released.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

You don't like the word "cure?" 

I don't like that it is partial data from one trial site. Seems premature to get hopes up.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-gilead-sciences-idUSKBN21Y3GV
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 17, 2020, 06:37:56 AM
Gilead?
:ph34r: :handmaid:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2020, 06:38:41 AM
QuoteGilead, in an emailed statement, said "the totality of the data need to be analyzed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial."

UChicago Medicine, also in an email, said "partial data from an ongoing clinical trial is by definition incomplete and should never be used to draw conclusions."

Seems like responsible reporting to me.  Your results may vary.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on April 17, 2020, 06:51:07 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2020, 06:38:41 AM
QuoteGilead, in an emailed statement, said "the totality of the data need to be analyzed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial."

UChicago Medicine, also in an email, said "partial data from an ongoing clinical trial is by definition incomplete and should never be used to draw conclusions."

Seems like responsible reporting to me.  Your results may vary.

My link at least clarifies that near the front, yours does not.

Also, they quote saying no conclusions should be drawn and we get headlines about Gilead's drug showing effectiveness. It is misleading.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2020, 07:04:15 AM
OK Grab On.  Don't buy Gilead stock.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on April 17, 2020, 07:27:11 AM
I'm not really worried about stock. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 17, 2020, 08:08:05 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 17, 2020, 07:27:11 AM
I'm not really worried about stock. :P

.........and yet it is crucial if you want to make a really nice soup  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on April 17, 2020, 09:49:17 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 17, 2020, 08:08:05 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 17, 2020, 07:27:11 AM
I'm not really worried about stock. :P

.........and yet it is crucial if you want to make a really nice soup  :hmm:

:D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on April 17, 2020, 10:23:13 AM
Quote from: mongers on April 17, 2020, 09:49:17 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 17, 2020, 08:08:05 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 17, 2020, 07:27:11 AM
I'm not really worried about stock. :P

.........and yet it is crucial if you want to make a really nice soup  :hmm:

:D

I'm a simple soup maker -_-

https://www.knorr.com/uk/knorr-products/stock-pots/beef-stock-pot.html
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 24, 2020, 07:49:40 AM
So it'd seem we are back to a see-saw market bouncing  up and down in a very tight range.

I think if there are any sudden moves out of this it will be downwards.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 24, 2020, 09:16:50 AM
I'm still staying out waiting for the crash  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on April 24, 2020, 10:12:18 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 24, 2020, 09:16:50 AM
I'm still staying out waiting for the crash  :P

Will there ever be a sudden unrecoverable crash during this crisis?

Or will we see a sea-sawing gradual decline as market players/forces realise the magnitude of the economic damage done and the future nature of commerce and international trade/industries? 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 24, 2020, 10:25:17 AM
Quote from: mongers on April 24, 2020, 10:12:18 AM
Will there ever be a sudden unrecoverable crash during this crisis?

Or will we see a sea-sawing gradual decline as market players/forces realise the magnitude of the economic damage done and the future nature of commerce and international trade/industries?

How about a see-sawing decline, offering the false hope of a better tomorrow, followed by a cataclysmic decline as we realize all is lost?  Your options are not complete mongers.  :lol:

I've got about a third of investable funds waiting for that retest of the bottom that Gollum looking dude warned about.  Also that UI bonus is going in.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 24, 2020, 10:36:50 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 24, 2020, 10:25:17 AM
I've got about a third of investable funds waiting for that retest of the bottom that Gollum looking dude warned about.

How did you get pictures of me?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on April 24, 2020, 11:52:43 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 24, 2020, 10:25:17 AM
Quote from: mongers on April 24, 2020, 10:12:18 AM
Will there ever be a sudden unrecoverable crash during this crisis?

Or will we see a sea-sawing gradual decline as market players/forces realise the magnitude of the economic damage done and the future nature of commerce and international trade/industries?

How about a see-sawing decline, offering the false hope of a better tomorrow, followed by a cataclysmic decline as we realize all is lost?  Your options are not complete mongers.  :lol:

....

:lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Larch on May 01, 2020, 04:03:57 PM
Any Tesla stockholders in the room?  :P

QuoteElon Musk tweet wipes $14bn off Tesla's value

Tesla's founder Elon Musk wiped $14bn off its value after tweeting its share price was too high in his opinion.

The tweet also knocked $3bn off Mr Musk's own stake in Tesla as investors promptly bailed out of the company.

"Tesla stock price is too high imo," he said, one of several tweets that included a vow to sell his possessions.

In other tweets, he said his girlfriend was mad at him, while another simply read: "Rage, rage against the dying of the light of consciousness."

In 2018, a tweet about Tesla's future on the New York stock market led to regulators fining him $20m and agreeing to have all further posts on the platform pre-screened by lawyers.


'Headache'

The Wall Street Journal reported it had asked the billionaire if he was joking about the share price tweet and whether it had been vetted, receiving the reply "No".

Tesla's share price has surged this year, putting the electric carmaker's value at close to $100bn, a mark that would trigger a bonus payment of hundreds of millions of dollars to the entrepreneur.

"We view these Musk comments as tongue in cheek and it's Elon being Elon. It's certainly a headache for investors for him to venture into this area as his tweeting remains a hot button issue and [Wall] Street clearly is frustrated," Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives told Reuters news agency.

In 2018, Mr Musk tweeted that he may have secured funding to possibly remove Tesla from the stock market and take it private, which again led to swings in the share price. The Securities and Exchange Commission judged it a market-moving comment, fined him and forced Tesla to put in place checks to ensure it did not happen again.

But last month, a federal judge said Tesla and Musk must face a lawsuit by shareholders over the going-private tweet, including a claim that Mr Musk intended to defraud them.

Earlier this week he tweeted to his 33.4 million followers some strong criticism of US stay-at-home restrictions because of the coronavirus pandemic. He also found himself in court last year after tweeting that a British diver was a "pedo guy".

Mr Musk said the promise to sell his possessions included his house, formerly owned by actor and producer Gene Wilder, and bought in 2013.

"One stipulation on sale," he tweeted, "I own Gene Wilder's old house. It cannot be torn down or lose any of its soul."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on May 01, 2020, 05:17:40 PM
Only by proxy (through index funds). I don't touch TSLA--far too volatile.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 01, 2020, 07:05:57 PM
Proud owner.  :)

Buy a Tesla!  Save the planet!  Impress the chicks!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 01, 2020, 07:06:29 PM
Sounds like Musk is building up his image to run for President.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: grumbler on May 01, 2020, 08:06:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2020, 07:04:15 AM
OK Grab On.  Don't buy Gilead stock.  :)

Everybody drink.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on May 02, 2020, 11:30:10 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 07:29:14 PM
Looks like you're right.  Significant minority stakes in four carriers.

Don't really know what you mean by:

an industry buggered inthe short-run (the virus) vs it's more traditional American brand holding etc.

Well the ex-Sage has spoken, bails on the four airlines, admits getting into the industry was a big mistake.

Oh and announces 1Q loses of $50 billion. :whistle:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on May 03, 2020, 12:47:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on May 01, 2020, 07:06:29 PM
Sounds like Musk is building up his image to run for President.

:(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 03, 2020, 02:57:59 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2020, 01:52:59 PM
Is this it?  The Big V Shaped Recovery?  Asian markets are all up

I was scrolling through this thread and noticed I posted this one day after the bottom.  :smarty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 03, 2020, 06:27:01 PM
Quote from: garbon on May 03, 2020, 12:47:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on May 01, 2020, 07:06:29 PM
Sounds like Musk is building up his image to run for President.

:(

Don't worry...like Schwarzenegger, he is ineligible.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 04, 2020, 12:25:23 PM
Quote from: The Larch on May 01, 2020, 04:03:57 PM
Any Tesla stockholders in the room?  :P


It's up so far today.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 08, 2020, 12:32:48 AM
Looks like Gollum missed his call.

What did you vacillators end up doing?  DGuller?  Squeeze?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 08, 2020, 07:12:50 AM
What does it mean for Gollum to miss his call? :unsure: Did someone leave him a voicemail? :unsure:

I legged it in, or more like footed it in, or even toed it in.  I'm still not convinced that the market really priced in all of the virus, bubble burst, recession, and post-COVID recovery mismanagement.  Even if it has, it surely hasn't grossly overpriced them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on May 08, 2020, 07:59:15 AM
Quote from: DGuller on May 08, 2020, 07:12:50 AM
What does it mean for Gollum to miss his call? :unsure: Did someone leave him a voicemail? :unsure:

I legged it in, or more like footed it in, or even toed it in.  I'm still not convinced that the market really priced in all of the virus, bubble burst, recession, and post-COVID recovery mismanagement.  Even if it has, it surely hasn't grossly overpriced them.

Quote
US jobless rate rises to 14.7% as coronavirus pandemic devastates the economy - 20.5 million jobs lost in April

This'll be the story the world over this Spring.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 08, 2020, 08:28:49 AM
Quote from: mongers on May 08, 2020, 07:59:15 AM


Quote
US jobless rate rises to 14.7% as coronavirus pandemic devastates the economy - 20.5 million jobs lost in April

This'll be the story the world over this Spring.  :(

Quick back of the napkin calculations:

33 million have filed for unemployment--that is about 20.1% of the workforce.

Beginning unemployment was 3.2%.

So that has 23.4% unemployed at some point in the stretch, so if we are at 14.7% now that means either 8.7% of the workforce has found a new job in this environment or has dropped out.

Honestly, with how fast everything is moving, I wonder how accurate that unemployment number is.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: FunkMonk on May 08, 2020, 09:10:32 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 08, 2020, 08:28:49 AM
Quote from: mongers on May 08, 2020, 07:59:15 AM


Quote
US jobless rate rises to 14.7% as coronavirus pandemic devastates the economy - 20.5 million jobs lost in April

This'll be the story the world over this Spring.  :(

Quick back of the napkin calculations:

33 million have filed for unemployment--that is about 20.1% of the workforce.

Beginning unemployment was 3.2%.

So that has 23.4% unemployed at some point in the stretch, so if we are at 14.7% now that means either 8.7% of the workforce has found a new job in this environment or has dropped out.

Honestly, with how fast everything is moving, I wonder how accurate that unemployment number is.

Household survey estimates always tend to be smaller than the total weekly UI claims over the month. Different data sources, methodologies, etc etc.

However, BLS said they had significant response rates issues for the survey in March and April, so who knows.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 08, 2020, 09:22:39 AM
Funkmunk, do you know when the surveys are conducted and how they are weighted?

Ie--obviously employment levels are plummeting rapidly. The employment situation at the beginning of April was better than the end. If surveys are conducted through the whole month, an April 1 response is before 16-17 million unemployment claims. Even a week ago is missing over 3 million.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: FunkMonk on May 08, 2020, 09:24:56 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 08, 2020, 08:28:49 AM
Quote from: mongers on May 08, 2020, 07:59:15 AM


Quote
US jobless rate rises to 14.7% as coronavirus pandemic devastates the economy - 20.5 million jobs lost in April

This'll be the story the world over this Spring.  :(

Quick back of the napkin calculations:

33 million have filed for unemployment--that is about 20.1% of the workforce.

Beginning unemployment was 3.2%.

So that has 23.4% unemployed at some point in the stretch, so if we are at 14.7% now that means either 8.7% of the workforce has found a new job in this environment or has dropped out.

Honestly, with how fast everything is moving, I wonder how accurate that unemployment number is.

There seems to have been some confusion in the data collection as well.

QuoteIn addition to the increase in the number of unemployed
people, there was also an increase in the number of workers who
were classified as employed but absent from work for the entire
reference week. As in March, special instructions sent to
household survey interviewers called for all employed people
absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, not all such workers were so classified in April. As is our usual
practice, no ad hoc actions were taken to reassign survey
responses; the data were accepted as recorded. If the workers
who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to ?other reasons? (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). Additional information is available online at www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.pdf
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: FunkMonk on May 08, 2020, 09:47:18 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 08, 2020, 09:22:39 AM
Funkmunk, do you know when the surveys are conducted and how they are weighted?

Ie--obviously employment levels are plummeting rapidly. The employment situation at the beginning of April was better than the end. If surveys are conducted through the whole month, an April 1 response is before 16-17 million unemployment claims. Even a week ago is missing over 3 million.

The household survey's reference period is the week of the 12th of the month. They have to be out of work the entire week (and either looking for work or expect to be recalled to their jobs)  to be classified as "unemployed".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 08, 2020, 10:07:21 AM
Thanks FunkMonk! It seems it is hard to catch a falling knife.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: FunkMonk on May 08, 2020, 10:27:04 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 08, 2020, 10:07:21 AM
Thanks FunkMonk! It seems it is hard to catch a falling knife.

:bowler:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 08, 2020, 09:33:03 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 08, 2020, 07:12:50 AM
What does it mean for Gollum to miss his call? :unsure: Did someone leave him a voicemail? :unsure:

That bald dude in the CNBC clip I linked upstream said most corrections have a false recovery and then retest the lows.  A double dip if you like.

I bought his story and have been sitting on my Roth money waiting for a retest, but got tired of seeing 2% gains day after day so I legged into Visa.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 08, 2020, 09:43:44 PM
I just don't see what others are seeing.  Before the worldwide pandemic we already had a market that was running a little hot.  Now everything is crashing down with a pretty bleak and uncertain near-term outlook, and we're just 15% off the highest of sugar highs?  I don't get it, and I'm not yet letting the daily movements shake my confidence in my judgment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 08, 2020, 10:28:56 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

When you posted this, the S&P 500 was 27% off its peak.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 08, 2020, 10:41:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 08, 2020, 10:28:56 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

When you posted this, the S&P 500 was 27% off its peak.
And I put my leg hair or two in the market right around that time, but it took a while to set up the brokerage, so I didn't quite get in at the bottom.  I think even 27% off the peak is optimistic, and 15% is just nuts.  Yes, I know I could've bought at -27% and sold at -15%, but that's just trying to predict the irrationality of the crowd.  S&P 500 fell almost 50% during the Great Recession.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 08, 2020, 11:10:45 PM
And the Mississippi and South Seas companies fell 100%.

But hey, it's your money.  Just don't get crabby if I gloat about my gains.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 08, 2020, 11:38:45 PM
 :huh: When have I ever been crabby?  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 09, 2020, 12:23:38 AM
Self deprecating humor is the highest form. :cheers:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on May 09, 2020, 09:50:00 AM
Quote from: DGuller on May 08, 2020, 09:43:44 PM
I just don't see what others are seeing.  Before the worldwide pandemic we already had a market that was running a little hot.  Now everything is crashing down with a pretty bleak and uncertain near-term outlook, and we're just 15% off the highest of sugar highs?  I don't get it, and I'm not yet letting the daily movements shake my confidence in my judgment.

I'm certainly not buying now, but the crisis has "short term" written all over it. If you are investing for the long haul, a 15% discount may be enough for 12-18 months of shit.

Also, I don't want to be super cynical, but small businesses are probably getting hit harder than the bigger players represented in the financial markets. To the extent there is a battle between the two for market share, this could have some long term benefits. And the risk of a new democratic administration coming in and putting into place onerous taxes and regulations is tempered by the liklihood it will inherit a dire economic situation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 09, 2020, 10:06:52 AM
Yes its a short term thing but also one of the attempted remedies has been to slash interest rates. I am assuming that taking free money from the printer and inflating stock prices with it to make your results look awesome is what's going on.

I mean what else are you going to do?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 09, 2020, 10:33:08 AM
The crisis is definitely a short term shock, but short-term shocks have a way of bringing on long-term complications, especially if delivered to a system with pre-existing conditions.  We're not just going to instantly reboot back to 4% unemployment once this is over.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 11, 2020, 02:50:17 PM
Quote from: Tamas on May 09, 2020, 10:06:52 AM
Yes its a short term thing but also one of the attempted remedies has been to slash interest rates. I am assuming that taking free money from the printer and inflating stock prices with it to make your results look awesome is what's going on.

I mean what else are you going to do?

Here is one view of what is happening - there is nowhere else to invest because bond prices are so low.  Also, the market is not the economy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/economy-stock-market-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=3
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 04, 2020, 12:08:21 AM
Just got back to my personal February high.  :yeah:

Course a good chunk of that is unemployment top up I'm stashing in savings, but still feels like an important milestone.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: FunkMonk on June 06, 2020, 12:58:19 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on May 08, 2020, 09:24:56 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on May 08, 2020, 08:28:49 AM
Quote from: mongers on May 08, 2020, 07:59:15 AM


Quote
US jobless rate rises to 14.7% as coronavirus pandemic devastates the economy - 20.5 million jobs lost in April

This'll be the story the world over this Spring.  :(

Quick back of the napkin calculations:

33 million have filed for unemployment--that is about 20.1% of the workforce.

Beginning unemployment was 3.2%.

So that has 23.4% unemployed at some point in the stretch, so if we are at 14.7% now that means either 8.7% of the workforce has found a new job in this environment or has dropped out.

Honestly, with how fast everything is moving, I wonder how accurate that unemployment number is.

There seems to have been some confusion in the data collection as well.

QuoteIn addition to the increase in the number of unemployed
people, there was also an increase in the number of workers who
were classified as employed but absent from work for the entire
reference week. As in March, special instructions sent to
household survey interviewers called for all employed people
absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, not all such workers were so classified in April. As is our usual
practice, no ad hoc actions were taken to reassign survey
responses; the data were accepted as recorded. If the workers
who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to ?other reasons? (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). Additional information is available online at www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.pdf

Quoting this because this methodological issue is being brought up after the recent jobs report, which came in better than expected. Some conspiracy theory floating around on Twitter that BLS intentionally cooked the numbers this month to give Donald something to brag about. Krugman made a lazy tweet that he later took back and it sort of blew up. There's an article in the WaPo about the misclassification now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on June 08, 2020, 08:35:57 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 09, 2020, 11:25:36 AM
I have given the green light to my guy to start investing.  So probably best to run for the hills.

So far it has worked out.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on June 09, 2020, 06:32:08 PM
Jinxed it
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on June 10, 2020, 12:27:47 PM
I dunno...holding on to my TSLA has paid off pretty well so far. :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 10, 2020, 07:46:04 PM
 :yeah:

How you feeling about that "maybe 1,000 by 2024" prediction now Tonto?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on June 11, 2020, 10:25:54 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on June 09, 2020, 06:32:08 PM
Jinxed it

I jinxed it worse.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 11, 2020, 02:31:43 PM
Ouch.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 11, 2020, 03:58:40 PM
Strange pattern to the sell off today.  I've never seen it before where so many stocks decline in % terms so close to what the broad market (using the S&P 500) declined.  Like somebody decided all stocks were 6% overvalued and threw a switch.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 11, 2020, 08:33:01 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MH2dru5y3xc

CNBC says the crazy rally has been fueled by a lot of new retail accounts.  Huge increase in new accounts.  Takeaway: dumb money going crazy, smart money saying slow down today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 12, 2020, 06:58:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 11, 2020, 08:33:01 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MH2dru5y3xc

CNBC says the crazy rally has been fueled by a lot of new retail accounts.  Huge increase in new accounts.  Takeaway: dumb money going crazy, smart money saying slow down today.
Yeah, it has to be dumb money, or investors have the expectation that public companies would be extracting more profit from less economic activity.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 12, 2020, 07:29:33 AM
Or, OR, the whole thing is a rigged playground for big investors, now totally detached from other economical realities thanks to decade-long and continuing money printing and non-existent interest rates.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on June 12, 2020, 07:50:31 AM
Quote from: DGuller on June 12, 2020, 06:58:12 AM

Yeah, it has to be dumb money, or investors have the expectation that public companies would be extracting more profit from less economic activity.

If that is the expectation, I don't think that it is crazy (within limits and over a longer time horizon, of course).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on June 12, 2020, 07:54:47 AM
Ya'll need to stop being pessimistic commies until my retirement fund is fleshed out, okay?  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on June 12, 2020, 09:29:35 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 11, 2020, 10:25:54 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on June 09, 2020, 06:32:08 PM
Jinxed it

I jinxed it worse.  :(

:D

Your mea culpa seems to have worked.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 12, 2020, 09:51:54 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 12, 2020, 07:29:33 AM
Or, OR, the whole thing is a rigged playground for big investors, now totally detached from other economical realities thanks to decade-long and continuing money printing and non-existent interest rates.

This makes no sense.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: grumbler on June 13, 2020, 06:53:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 12, 2020, 09:51:54 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 12, 2020, 07:29:33 AM
Or, OR, the whole thing is a rigged playground for big investors, now totally detached from other economical realities thanks to decade-long and continuing money printing and non-existent interest rates.

This makes no sense.

Sure it does.  The big investors got to be the big investors because they are totally detached from economic realities other than the stock market.  Chumps who invested money based on economic consideration got screwed.  You know... somehow.  Because reasons.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 15, 2020, 07:41:26 AM
Asian markets getting beat up.  Could be some carnage today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 16, 2020, 04:18:31 AM
So it seems like the Fed starting to buy company bonds have really calmed the markets and its going all up.

One thing I don't understand is that, is this something that's going to be viable now for ever? The Fed prints money, QEs it to banks, buys company bonds, so things stay afloat. For somebody uneducated like me that sounds like that should result in inflation, but it doesn't. So is this the economy now? Endless pretend money pouring in and all will be fine?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on June 16, 2020, 04:40:38 AM
I think it is because of an increasingly elderly population, many of whom have lots of money; rather than spend the extra money they buy real estate, stocks and bonds.........so the inflation occurs there. Meanwhile the QE doesn't percolate down to the poor; so the stuff they buy does not increase in price.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on June 16, 2020, 09:16:32 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 16, 2020, 04:18:31 AM
So it seems like the Fed starting to buy company bonds have really calmed the markets and its going all up.

One thing I don't understand is that, is this something that's going to be viable now for ever? The Fed prints money, QEs it to banks, buys company bonds, so things stay afloat. For somebody uneducated like me that sounds like that should result in inflation, but it doesn't. So is this the economy now? Endless pretend money pouring in and all will be fine?

That logic was discredited more than a decade ago but keeps getting repeated.  But even right wing think tanks are realizing it is wrong.

https://www.cato.org/blog/return-inflation-mongers

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 16, 2020, 12:59:10 PM
I think the danger with the Krugman side of the argument is missing a conditional or two.  It may be that printing money does not increase inflation given that some other factor holds true.  As long as that factor doesn't change, you don't have to identify it, or even be aware of it.  However, if that factor changes, and suddenly printing money does in fact cause inflation, everything can explode in your face.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 16, 2020, 01:14:51 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 16, 2020, 12:59:10 PM
I think the danger with the Krugman side of the argument is missing a conditional or two.  It may be that printing money does not increase inflation given that some other factor holds true.  As long as that factor doesn't change, you don't have to identify it, or even be aware of it.  However, if that factor changes, and suddenly printing money does in fact cause inflation, everything can explode in your face.

In finances things exploding in your face and collapsing? Unheard of!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on June 16, 2020, 01:17:22 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 16, 2020, 12:59:10 PM
I think the danger with the Krugman side of the argument is missing a conditional or two.  It may be that printing money does not increase inflation given that some other factor holds true.  As long as that factor doesn't change, you don't have to identify it, or even be aware of it.  However, if that factor changes, and suddenly printing money does in fact cause inflation, everything can explode in your face.

Krugman identifies the factors he says needs to hold true.  You should probably read the article I linked.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 02, 2020, 01:54:00 PM
Tesla just passed Toyota to become the #1 car maker by market cap.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 02, 2020, 02:11:23 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 02, 2020, 01:54:00 PM
Tesla just passed Toyota to become the #1 car maker by market cap.

I don't think there's much reason to compare a speculative stock bubble to bloody Toyota.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on July 02, 2020, 02:17:43 PM
Quote from: Tamas on July 02, 2020, 02:11:23 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 02, 2020, 01:54:00 PM
Tesla just passed Toyota to become the #1 car maker by market cap.

I don't think there's much reason to compare a speculative stock bubble to bloody Toyota.

Tesla is more than a "speculative stock bubble".  It is a real company that ships real cars and has for years.

Stock price went up because it produced 90,000 vehicles last quarter.  That was a decline of 5% from last year, but miles better than the industry's 30% decline.

I have no idea is the stock is worth it at that price, but it's no 90s dot-com bubble company.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on July 02, 2020, 02:24:36 PM
Another way of seeing things is that the other cars manufacturers, especially the American ones, are undervalued because they carry so much retirement fund obligation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 02, 2020, 03:32:37 PM
Sometimes I have to keep reminding myself that the market cap represents the ability of the company to extract economic surplus from its activity.  What it doesn't represent is the total economic surplus it's generating for the society. 

If we had a conglomerate that had a 100% market share in providing food, shelter, and entertainment to everyone in the world, but they did it at cost, the market cap of that conglomerate would be less than the market cap of one toaster manufacturer, even though society benefited more from that conglomerate than it did from having one more toaster manufacturer.  Toyota obviously brings more utility to the world than Tesla, probably by a couple of orders of magnitude, but ironically they were so successful at making cars an affordable commodity that they can't sufficiently profit from it compared to Tesla.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 02, 2020, 03:35:17 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 02, 2020, 03:32:37 PM
Sometimes I have to keep reminding myself that the market cap represents the ability of the company to extract economic surplus from its activity.  What it doesn't represent is the total economic surplus it's generating for the society. 

If we had a conglomerate that had a 100% market share in providing food, shelter, and entertainment to everyone in the world, but they did it at cost, the market cap of that conglomerate would be less than the market cap of one toaster manufacturer, even though society benefited more from that conglomerate than it did from having one more toaster manufacturer.  Toyota obviously brings more utility to the world than Tesla, probably by a couple of orders of magnitude, but ironically they were so successful at making cars an affordable commodity that they can't sufficiently profit from it compared to Tesla.

Tesla still has not made a full year profit.

And of course the market cap of your zero profit company would be zero.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 02, 2020, 03:36:19 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on July 02, 2020, 02:24:36 PM
Another way of seeing things is that the other cars manufacturers, especially the American ones, are undervalued because they carry so much retirement fund obligation.
That's like saying that other car manufacturers are worth less because they paid out a lot of money in salaries 30 years ago, whereas Tesla is worth more because it paid nothing in salaries 30 years ago.  Retirement fund obligations are incurred during employment, not during retirement.  It may seem like they're incurred after someone's retirement only because these pension fund obligations were not properly funded at the time they were incurred, and the company got away with it at the time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 02, 2020, 03:39:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 02, 2020, 03:35:17 PM
Tesla still has not made a full year profit.

And of course the market cap of your zero profit company would be zero.
Okay, what I meant was expected ability to extract profit, not currently realized ability to extract profit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on July 03, 2020, 05:51:54 AM
Quote from: DGuller on July 02, 2020, 03:36:19 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on July 02, 2020, 02:24:36 PM
Another way of seeing things is that the other cars manufacturers, especially the American ones, are undervalued because they carry so much retirement fund obligation.
That's like saying that other car manufacturers are worth less because they paid out a lot of money in salaries 30 years ago, whereas Tesla is worth more because it paid nothing in salaries 30 years ago.  Retirement fund obligations are incurred during employment, not during retirement.  It may seem like they're incurred after someone's retirement only because these pension fund obligations were not properly funded at the time they were incurred, and the company got away with it at the time.

Yes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on July 07, 2020, 05:13:22 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/07/boohoo-shares-concern-factory-conditions

QuoteBoohoo shares plunge amid concern over factory conditions

The value of the online fashion retailer Boohoo has plunged by more than £1.5bn in two days, after revelations about conditions endured by the workers that supply its garments.

Boohoo's sales have been booming during the coronavirus lockdown as consumers shifted to buying clothes online, but its shares fell by 14% in early trading on Tuesday, extending the previous day's falls.

The company is now worth more than a third less than it was on Friday afternoon, before allegations about its supply chain wiped £1.5bn off its stock market value.

Boohoo said on Monday it was investigating claims that staff at one of its Leicester factories were paid as little as £3.50 an hour and were working without proper equipment to guard against Covid-19.

The firm, which owns the Nasty Gal and Pretty Little Thing brands, said it would not hesitate to terminate its relationship with any suppliers that were found in breach of its code of conduct.

But the case has ignited broader concerns about working conditions in hundreds of small warehouse factories in Leicester's garment industry, which supplies high street fashion brands.

Jaswal Fashions was the supplier initially named in a Sunday Times report that alleged staff were working in hot and cramped conditions, without sufficient protective equipment and were paid rates below the minimum wage.

The company has strenuously denied its involvement, saying it no longer works from the factory on Leicester's Gas Street, no longer supplies Boohoo, and has leased the premises to another firm.


A director of the company that leased the premises from Jaswal Fashions has not responded to requests for comment from the Guardian.

Concerns about Boohoo's supply chain emerged less than a month after the company announced a bonus plan worth up to £150m for its bosses.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on July 10, 2020, 04:45:51 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 10, 2020, 12:27:47 PM
I dunno...holding on to my TSLA has paid off pretty well so far. :sleep:

Maybe it is time to cash out? :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 10, 2020, 05:09:45 PM
I'm holding mine.

I gave half a thought to cashing out a slice when it hit $1,000, then buying back in at $800 or $600.  Didn't pull the trigger, and how stupid would I have looked now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 10, 2020, 07:00:04 PM
Elon has moved past Warren on the billionaire's list.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on July 11, 2020, 01:02:28 PM
I'm so ridiculously bullish on equities medium to long term. Do not fight the Fed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 20, 2020, 01:56:55 PM
Hope you didn't sell your Tesla Tonto.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on July 20, 2020, 02:26:36 PM
I hadn't.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on July 23, 2020, 08:01:05 AM
And they reported a profit for Apr-Jun quarter.  :sleep:

Also...the Cybertruck will be built in a new factory in Valmy's backyard.  Musk bless Texas.  :P

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 23, 2020, 11:49:58 AM
I am glad to see our city continue to embrace new technology.

Though Texans don't just love trucks they love how trucks look, so I don't know if they are going to warm up to Tesla's weird non-truck looking truck. But we'll see.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 23, 2020, 12:52:01 PM
Quote from: Valmy on July 23, 2020, 11:49:58 AM
I am glad to see our city continue to embrace new technology.

Though Texans don't just love trucks they love how trucks look, so I don't know if they are going to warm up to Tesla's weird non-truck looking truck. But we'll see.

Musk is the new Steve Jobs. It doesn't matter what he does, if he does it people will pour money into it because why not.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 23, 2020, 12:52:58 PM
Musk is a genius. I do like that Steve Jobs comparison because they both kind of suck as people but damn you are glad they are around doing what they do.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on July 23, 2020, 01:09:06 PM
Quote from: Valmy on July 23, 2020, 12:52:58 PM
Musk is a genius. I do like that Steve Jobs comparison because they both kind of suck as people but damn you are glad they are around doing what they do.

:yes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 23, 2020, 02:16:17 PM
TBF he is much more useful than Jobs. Jobs was a great mix of designer, sales person, and religious leader but it didn't seem to care for much than his own good.

Musk at least using his similar qualities for the common goods of space enterprise and electric cars.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 23, 2020, 02:18:38 PM
BTW since I guess this is the closest to a general economics/finances thread we have:

We discussed in the past how there's no inflation to speak of, I remember even the Economist had a long study on it some months ago and how this seems to go against established models.

Isn't it just, though, that instead of consumer goods inflation, we have asset price inflation? Seems like all the free money since various QE programs begun (and trickled down to the masses via low interest rates) have poured into housing and stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on July 23, 2020, 03:38:30 PM
Quote from: Tamas on July 23, 2020, 02:18:38 PM
Isn't it just, though, that instead of consumer goods inflation, we have asset price inflation? Seems like all the free money since various QE programs begun (and trickled down to the masses via low interest rates) have poured into housing and stocks.
That's my theory, inflation is showing up as the asset bubbles, which is exacerbated by increased concentration of wealth.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on July 23, 2020, 04:44:18 PM
Yes, QE + the low interest rates that accompany it (thus encouraging borrowing to invest and discouraging investing in bonds) has significantly inflated asset prices for those wealthy enough to already own meaningful amounts, thus further contributing to inequality.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on July 30, 2020, 11:17:47 PM
So it was with trepidation that I opened the statement on my 401k expecting to have taken a bath over the past three months (April-June) but instead I see it went up in value by over 15%  :blink:

Maybe it was all invested in mask and ventilator manufacturers  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 31, 2020, 12:29:42 AM
Quote from: Valmy on July 30, 2020, 11:17:47 PM
So it was with trepidation that I opened the statement on my 401k expecting to have taken a bath over the past three months (April-June) but instead I see it went up in value by over 15%  :blink:

Maybe it was all invested in mask and ventilator manufacturers  :hmm:

Since 2008 the stock market only reacts to the amount of money printed by the Fed not the state of the economy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 31, 2020, 05:51:46 AM
Quote from: Valmy on July 30, 2020, 11:17:47 PM
So it was with trepidation that I opened the statement on my 401k expecting to have taken a bath over the past three months (April-June) but instead I see it went up in value by over 15%  :blink:

Maybe it was all invested in mask and ventilator manufacturers  :hmm:

That 15% climb is up from the March trough, when people were panic selling to prepare for the end of the world.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on July 31, 2020, 08:46:35 AM
Yeah, my investments have been doing well enough that my retirement calculator now declares that I can retire at 66 rather than 67. :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Camerus on July 31, 2020, 04:09:04 PM
Yeah, in spite of the earlier dip, my wife and are still moving closer to our goal of early retirement.  :mono:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 01, 2020, 04:50:41 AM
I still think my best performing asset are the shares in my own tech startup.  :bowler:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 03, 2020, 05:15:20 PM
Do you recon there will be a general correction before the eternal run upwards resumes, or it is just now up all the time, every time?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 04, 2020, 02:48:21 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 03, 2020, 05:15:20 PM
Do you recon there will be a general correction before the eternal run upwards resumes, or it is just now up all the time, every time?

Define correction.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: merithyn on August 04, 2020, 03:23:28 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 23, 2020, 08:01:05 AM
And they reported a profit for Apr-Jun quarter.  :sleep:

Also...the Cybertruck will be built in a new factory in Valmy's backyard.  Musk bless Texas.  :P

My friend, Erik, is on the list for one of those. :yuk:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 04, 2020, 03:25:59 PM
Quote from: merithyn on August 04, 2020, 03:23:28 PM
My friend, Erik, is on the list for one of those. :yuk:

It just doesn't look like a truck does it? I mean even if it is better at being a truck than a current truck often people just want a truck for the aesthetics, not because they always want to be the person their friends call when they are moving.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: merithyn on August 04, 2020, 03:28:34 PM
He needs a truck for his hobbies, and wants a self-driving car. So this is perfect for him. And I think he actually likes the way it looks, though I have no idea how/why. I think it's because he appreciates that it's all angles so easier/faster/cheaper to produce than modern cars/trucks? :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 04, 2020, 03:31:44 PM
I like the looks of Rivian's EV pickup, and Nikola's as well.  But, they're both yet-to-tested EV companies.  Tesla at least has credibility.

But Tesla is really becoming like the Microsoft (Windows) of EVs.  I think their real genius has been their lean-in on the charging infrastructure.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on August 04, 2020, 05:02:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on July 30, 2020, 11:17:47 PM
So it was with trepidation that I opened the statement on my 401k expecting to have taken a bath over the past three months (April-June) but instead I see it went up in value by over 15%  :blink:

Maybe it was all invested in mask and ventilator manufacturers  :hmm:

That is great news.  I had the opposite happen.  Gains not as large as I expected given that I nailed the timing to move back in (dumb luck) but my broker is pretty defensive in his strategy.   I kind of wish I had instructed him to be more aggressive but I am not psychologically built that way for investing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 05, 2020, 02:38:14 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 04, 2020, 02:48:21 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 03, 2020, 05:15:20 PM
Do you recon there will be a general correction before the eternal run upwards resumes, or it is just now up all the time, every time?

Define correction.

IDK, I guess, going back to April levels?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 05, 2020, 02:40:40 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 04, 2020, 05:02:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on July 30, 2020, 11:17:47 PM
So it was with trepidation that I opened the statement on my 401k expecting to have taken a bath over the past three months (April-June) but instead I see it went up in value by over 15%  :blink:

Maybe it was all invested in mask and ventilator manufacturers  :hmm:

That is great news.  I had the opposite happen.  Gains not as large as I expected given that I nailed the timing to move back in (dumb luck) but my broker is pretty defensive in his strategy.   I kind of wish I had instructed him to be more aggressive but I am not psychologically built that way for investing.

My workplace pension fund from my previous employer is in a high risk fund. The annual report was just after the crash and it lost like 10% IIRC but when I checked on it last week it was all back and some. Virtual money printing sure works. I am thinking I am going to leave this account separate and high risk, and use my freshly accumulating newest workplace pension account as medium risk.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 05, 2020, 04:29:42 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 05, 2020, 02:38:14 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 04, 2020, 02:48:21 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 03, 2020, 05:15:20 PM
Do you recon there will be a general correction before the eternal run upwards resumes, or it is just now up all the time, every time?

Define correction.

IDK, I guess, going back to April levels?

Outside of an external distruptor like Corona, essentially nil.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on August 05, 2020, 09:18:40 AM
And since the world is experiencing an external distruptor like Corona what does your crystal ball say?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 05, 2020, 01:13:20 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 05, 2020, 09:18:40 AM
And since the world is experiencing an external distruptor like Corona what does your crystal ball say?

My prior on them is flat.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 10, 2020, 09:35:02 AM
FYI stay well clear of Intel and Silver positions as I've put money in both. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on August 10, 2020, 03:26:59 PM
You figure Intel has gotten as bad as they can get? 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 10, 2020, 04:02:52 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 10, 2020, 03:26:59 PM
You figure Intel has gotten as bad as they can get?

Yes more or less. Today was a negative day for many tech firms but not them. That swung me over the fence. It is important to note though that I am terrible at judging this stuff.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 10, 2020, 04:07:15 PM
My impression is that Intel is suffering from a sclerotic corporate culture.  Once this affliction sets in, it can be very difficult to root out, and usually decades of subpar performance follow.  That said, what matters in picking stocks is not your evaluation, but rather how much your evaluation is already priced in.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 11, 2020, 04:42:25 PM
TSLA doing a 5-1 stock split.  Wheeeeeeeee?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2020, 04:47:26 PM
What is everyone thought process about buying a property in the big city?  For the first time in a long time, I'm more than passingly entertaining that option, but I'm wondering how much of a gamble it is.  Will big cities ever be coming back to the way they were before Covid?  Or is WFH going to destroy the real estate prices in big cities for decades to com?  Why would you live in a super expensive shoebox if you don't even need to be physically close to your workplace?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 11, 2020, 06:18:07 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 11, 2020, 04:47:26 PM
What is everyone thought process about buying a property in the big city?  For the first time in a long time, I'm more than passingly entertaining that option, but I'm wondering how much of a gamble it is.  Will big cities ever be coming back to the way they were before Covid?  Or is WFH going to destroy the real estate prices in big cities for decades to com?  Why would you live in a super expensive shoebox if you don't even need to be physically close to your workplace?

Have prices even really come down?

I read a market analysis yesterday that looked at about 15 cities and broke down where employees lived--their thesis was that housing in cities and zip codes with a lot of service industry, certain manufacturing, and transportation related employees would get hurt, while others would endure. NYC seemed reasonably immune (though there were a few areas that were exposed), and places like Las Vegas and Detroit were generally in trouble.

I'm not sure how valid that is--who wants to live in NYC right now?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on August 11, 2020, 06:29:37 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 11, 2020, 04:47:26 PM
What is everyone thought process about buying a property in the big city?  For the first time in a long time, I'm more than passingly entertaining that option, but I'm wondering how much of a gamble it is.  Will big cities ever be coming back to the way they were before Covid?  Or is WFH going to destroy the real estate prices in big cities for decades to com?  Why would you live in a super expensive shoebox if you don't even need to be physically close to your workplace?

foreclosures here are going up even with all the mortgage deferrals and COVID federal payments.  The US big cities will likely experience the same thing and probably worse given the failure to provide ongoing aid.  Not sure what the trend on overall prices is going to be, but there are probably going to be a number of foreclosure sales where the prices are tempting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 11, 2020, 10:04:11 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 11, 2020, 06:18:07 PM
Have prices even really come down?
Where I live, it feels like the prices are coming down.  A lot of condos that are on the market seem to be slashing the asking prices dramatically.  That coupled with ridiculously low mortgage rates makes it more affordable than ever.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 12, 2020, 04:32:02 AM
I was looking around recently for a sort of usable online community as source of news/ideas/etc as I have lost my patience waiting for a second dip (which means it is probably imminent).

The search has made me realise that all the Bitcoin Bros have moved into Tesla and the other skyrocketing tech stocks. I am seeing the same kind of "lol memes kind and sensitive person yolo" attitude people gathering for reassurance as the ones I have glimpsed during the Bitcoin craze.

I mean, there is for eampe the "wallstreetbets" Reddit community. It has over 1 million members. The "stocks" community that tries to stay more grounded has less than half of that.

It is full of such noob youngsters that it is painful sometimes. They are so leveraged up their asses, they are getting nervous breakdowns from a 0.5% move the wrong way. And they are frenzying each other into one reckless trade after the other, mostly using options. They seem to think if they can convince each other not to sell something it will buoy the price.

I also was looking around at Discord. There I found a slightly less crazy group "unusua whales" where they have a script post big option trades (what they consider possible insider trading) so it's less of a Bro Culture fueled gambling fest at least in theory, but in practice it is close. There, I could see the same nicknames risking thousands of dollars per trade, and chatting about how they are looking forward to finish high school and go into uni.

It's effin' crazy.


In other news, I remembered how volatile Silver is and got out with barely any losses. :P I'll leave that to these kids.

Instead I have decided to follow up on my "no more crashes" commitment and bought American Airlines. It won't go anywhere for a year I guess but I don't think we are done air travelling.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 12, 2020, 10:23:01 AM
r/wallstreetbets is for entertainment purposes only

There are some good analysts/fund managers on twitter worth following.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 12, 2020, 10:50:00 AM
Just be like my dad and watch Jim Cramer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 12, 2020, 11:41:22 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 12, 2020, 10:50:00 AM
Just be like my dad and watch Jim Cramer.

:lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 13, 2020, 09:50:00 AM
So basically Tesla has become a safety asset? If people have no better idea they just pump their daily moneys into it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 16, 2020, 03:41:49 AM
Last night I was out with a friend who is really into stocks and he reckoned buying tesla was the smart thing to do as it'll be the biggest company in the world by 2024.

All seems very speculative.

Thinking to open an actual money account on trading 212 or some other app that I can't remember the name of. See if I can figure out how this stuff works

Banks look to be a good short term investment. Barclays and bank of Montreal are pretty low now, they've a lot of ground to regain....
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 18, 2020, 09:54:29 AM
I have recently opened a small CFD account to temper my raging gambling instincts. Basically so far I have used it to hedge my hemorrhaging regular stocks with daily long Tesla CFDs :P

F this market. Also F me for not jumping into tech stocks in time. Can't wait for a vaccine so my portfolio stops looking this depressing.   
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 18, 2020, 01:35:01 PM
S&P 500 is at its all time high.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 18, 2020, 01:48:06 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 18, 2020, 01:35:01 PM
S&P 500 is at its all time high.

I know. It makes no sense.

I mean I am grateful for all the retirement money, don't get me wrong.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 18, 2020, 02:16:11 PM
As if we are also in state capitalism now, just much lighter than China. Everything depends on the Fed. As long as they are printing we go up even during a pandemic. IDK what will happen when they stop. I don't think they'll stop until something really massive forces them to.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2020, 04:50:35 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 18, 2020, 09:54:29 AM
Also F me for not jumping into tech stocks in time.

So get into the next one.  I heard AirBnB is going to IPO this year after all.  I think Google is still buyable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 18, 2020, 06:07:08 PM
Isn't airbnb collapsing?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2020, 07:47:38 PM
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/11/airbnb-is-getting-ready-for-an-ipo-what-investors/

QuoteThe travel industry has been hit harder than most by the coronavirus, and Airbnb is no exception. In a message to employees in May, CEO Brian Chesky laid off 25% of Airbnb's workforce, saying 2020 revenue would be down over 50% year over year.

But perhaps things are already picking back up. One of Airbnb's biggest competitors is Vrbo, owned by Expedia Group. The company doesn't break out Vrbo's individual results, but noted it returned to bookings growth in June. Therefore, now may be an opportune time for Airbnb to access the public capital it most likely desperately needs. Investors may be enticed to buy the IPO based on improving trends.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 19, 2020, 03:20:13 AM
Yeah I would buy in. Airbnb is awesome and the pandemic won't last forever.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 19, 2020, 03:24:06 AM
Most of the risk in Airbnb's model will be pushed onto the property owners; they will have had a bad six months.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 07:17:09 AM
Uber is another one that's buyable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 19, 2020, 07:31:37 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 07:17:09 AM
Uber is another one that's buyable.

Have they ever been even remotely close to profitable?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 06:41:07 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 19, 2020, 07:31:37 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 07:17:09 AM
Uber is another one that's buyable.

Have they ever been even remotely close to profitable?

Remotely, I think yeah.

Way I see it Lyft is dying, Uber is gobbling up food delivery, and their rideshare has to come back at *some* point
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 07:27:40 PM
QuoteOverview of Uber:
Full-year 2019 revenue grew 26% to $14.1 billion and net loss was -$8.5 billion compared to a net profit of $997 million for 2018. Stock-based compensation was $4.6 billion in 2019 for a net loss of $4.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of negative -$2.73 billion.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 07:32:21 PM
You also might want to keep in mind that if you wait until after they're a healthy, mature, profitable company to buy, you don't get the crazy appreciation that you're hoping for.  :)

Learn to appreciate risk!  Think like a venture capitalist.  One monster makes up for a lot of dogs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 08:28:43 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpRnDAZbmpA

Bezos, Gates, Zuckerberg, Musk.  He just became #4.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 08:43:04 PM
I wonder what happened to Carlos Slim.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 20, 2020, 02:24:47 PM
And TSLA cracks 2000.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 20, 2020, 03:09:30 PM
Bought some GT (Goodyear) out of solidarity. 

I always had Goodyear tires on my FJ back in the States, and was always very satisfied with them.

And they actually look like a potentially good buy too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 20, 2020, 03:30:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 06:41:07 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 19, 2020, 07:31:37 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 07:17:09 AM
Uber is another one that's buyable.

Have they ever been even remotely close to profitable?

Remotely, I think yeah.

Way I see it Lyft is dying, Uber is gobbling up food delivery, and their rideshare has to come back at *some* point

Lyft seem to be going for a more sustainable growth pattern whilst uber are trying to grab as much of the market as they can. It's a question of whether uber is able to keep faith for a long while before breaking even.
Is lyft available anywhere outside the US yet?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 20, 2020, 04:04:02 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 20, 2020, 02:24:47 PM
And TSLA cracks 2000.  :sleep:

Make sure you hold your shares until end of tomorrow to be eligible for the split stocks as dividend.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 01:12:30 PM
Thank you Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey for the bountiful blessings you have bestowed on Yi, your humble servant.  :worthy:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2020, 02:17:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 01:12:30 PM
Thank you Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey for the bountiful blessings you have bestowed on Yi, your humble servant.  :worthy:

Congrats, man, who would have thought it gets this crazy. I'd be looking to sell after the initial post-split buyfest, though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on August 21, 2020, 02:18:56 PM
I still think Musk is going to jail someday. :hmm:

But anyway, congrats Yi. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2020, 02:20:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 06:41:07 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 19, 2020, 07:31:37 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 19, 2020, 07:17:09 AM
Uber is another one that's buyable.

Have they ever been even remotely close to profitable?

Remotely, I think yeah.

Way I see it Lyft is dying, Uber is gobbling up food delivery, and their rideshare has to come back at *some* point

Fuck it, I went into American Airlines way too early and with terrible timing, just couldn't watch another sucky position on my list. As my losses there had about as much as my gains this week mini-betting on Tesla CFDs, I just sold AAL and replaced it with the more hip dud Uber. Can't be much worse, I'll reenter an airline in a couple of months.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on August 21, 2020, 02:32:49 PM
BRB, buying puts on Uber.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2020, 02:40:30 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on August 21, 2020, 02:32:49 PM
BRB, buying puts on Uber.

STFU :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 03:48:21 PM
How about Visa Tamas?  Revenue was growing 24% a year pre-Covid, the world will only get more cashless, and it has been ticking up like a metronome (not going ballistic) since I bought some during the dip.  Pays a joke of a dividend.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2020, 05:30:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 03:48:21 PM
How about Visa Tamas?  Revenue was growing 24% a year pre-Covid, the world will only get more cashless, and it has been ticking up like a metronome (not going ballistic) since I bought some during the dip.  Pays a joke of a dividend.

Will check it out in my next round purchase, cheers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2020, 05:31:01 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on August 21, 2020, 02:32:49 PM
BRB, buying puts on Uber.

BTW if you are still playing with options, are you aware of this group?

https://discord.com/channels/710524439133028512/711097562249035807

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on August 21, 2020, 05:42:30 PM
That link doesn't lead me anywhere, but if it's a group that discusses stock trades or derivatives, I'm not joining.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 21, 2020, 05:47:20 PM
What am I missing on Tesla?  Is everyone just bored to death due to Covid, and is trying to set the Guiness world record for the biggest tulip bubble?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2020, 05:50:46 PM
That's sorted then.  :D

The main purpose of it is for an algo to share unusual option trades of high volume (called Unusual Whales).

As I don't do options I don't care much for those but the chat during trading hours is rather fun and sometimes informstive
It's not even close to the retardedness of Wallstreetbets but it is rather full of 20-somethings recklessly gambling, being bailed out by Tesla, and thinking they are good at it all.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2020, 05:53:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 21, 2020, 05:47:20 PM
What am I missing on Tesla?  Is everyone just bored to death due to Covid, and is trying to set the Guiness world record for the biggest tulip bubble?

No idea but at this stage it is the next Bitcoin. Utter madness.

There is even a copycat stock out there called Nikola I shit you not, they claim to be working on an electric truck. I saw something mentioned on the aforementioned Discord that some people on twitter went to their factory address and made photos and it is basically a remote farm.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 21, 2020, 05:47:20 PM
What am I missing on Tesla?  Is everyone just bored to death due to Covid, and is trying to set the Guiness world record for the biggest tulip bubble?

Massive data advantage in driverless, five years ahead in battery tech, world trending EV, factories in China (massive market) and Germany, upside potential of semi and pickup markets.  Way upstream Tonto and I were talking about the chick from Ark Investments who has a base case of 7 grand for 2024.  No doubt there is a huge amount of fanboism out there, but I think the bull case is legitimate.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2020, 06:00:51 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 05:58:28 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 21, 2020, 05:47:20 PM
What am I missing on Tesla?  Is everyone just bored to death due to Covid, and is trying to set the Guiness world record for the biggest tulip bubble?

Massive data advantage in driverless, five years ahead in battery tech, world trending EV, factories in China (massive market) and Germany, upside potential of semi and pickup markets.  Way upstream Tonto and I were talking about the chick from Ark Investments who has a base case of 7 grand for 2024.  No doubt there is a huge amount of fanboism out there, but I think the bull case is legitimate.

Oh please that might explain a share price 10% of what it is now. Even people who pour their life savings into it do not pretend it makes any economic sense.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 21, 2020, 06:01:59 PM
Which reminds me, there was Bitcoin then Tesla. Do let me know if you spot what's the next tulip is going to be :p
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 06:09:58 PM
We'd like to thank our global partners at Beet Holdings for their meticulous financial analysis.  :sleep:

10% of current price is probably explained by current profits.  90% is speculation on future earnings.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 21, 2020, 06:16:50 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 06:09:58 PM
We'd like to thank our global partners at Beet Holdings for their meticulous financial analysis.  :sleep:

10% of current price is probably explained by current profits.  90% is speculation on future earnings.
I'd say it's 10% explained by current profits, 10% explained by speculation on future earnings, 30% explained by speculation on speculation on future earnings, and 50% explained by speculation on speculation on speculation on future earnings.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 09:17:34 PM
Let me see your math. :nerd:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 24, 2020, 09:19:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 09:17:34 PM
Let me see your math. :nerd:
The math is a little complicated, but it's all in here:  :moon:.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 24, 2020, 09:29:46 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 21, 2020, 06:16:50 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 21, 2020, 06:09:58 PM
We'd like to thank our global partners at Beet Holdings for their meticulous financial analysis.  :sleep:

10% of current price is probably explained by current profits.  90% is speculation on future earnings.
I'd say it's 10% explained by current profits, 10% explained by speculation on future earnings, 30% explained by speculation on speculation on future earnings, and 50% explained by speculation on speculation on speculation on future earnings.

Looking up its financial statements, Tesla hasn't produced profits in the last 3 years (the only years I've checked). Last year it lost $862 million for its shareholders. In the first 6 months of this year, it has turned a profit of $120 million. I didn't check the current market cap based on today's stock price, but as a few days ago, it was $350 billion.

I think 10% explained by current profits may be a bit generous (which would be $35 billion). Hell, claiming it is profitable because it peaked its head above water for a part of a year seems rather generous.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 25, 2020, 02:44:48 AM
You're right.  Doubling that 120 million and using a PE of 25 I get 1.7% of current market cap.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 26, 2020, 02:55:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2020, 02:10:53 AM
Still climbing in after hours.  :ph34r:

I think I'll drop a couple of shares if it hits $950.

Or not.  Shit.  I feel like I'm sitting on the bitcoin bubble.

And here we are 6 months later.  :P

Noticed that the stock value is now just about 10x it's 52-week low.

This feels a bit like that Jefferson quote about holding a wolf by the ears.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 27, 2020, 03:18:20 PM
So... This tech bubble.... Massive sign of a screwed up economy right? I all that money being traded back and forth between people over shares of a few firms rather than being invested into value making business....
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 27, 2020, 04:30:35 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 27, 2020, 03:18:20 PM
So... This tech bubble.... Massive sign of a screwed up economy right? I all that money being traded back and forth between people over shares of a few firms rather than being invested into value making business....

Kind of, but probably not in the way you are thinking.

The ridiculously low yields on bank savings and bonds has definitely pushed people into equities.  On the other hand, the ridiculously low yields on bank lending and bonds means anyone who wants to borrow to finance the purchase of plant and equipment can do so very easily.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 28, 2020, 10:06:32 PM
What are the biggest dogs in y'all's portfolios?  Here are mine.

AMLP.  Alerian Master Limited Partnership, oil pipeline index fund.  Down 53.44%.

EWP.  Spain index fund.  Down 30.37%.  First I got fucked by Catalan independence, then by Covid.

AGNC.  FHA bond REIT.  Mimsy turned me onto this because of the too good to be true 15% dividend yield.  Down 52.57%.

PSO.  Pearson ADR.  I bought at 15% discount to market at various times through a payroll deduction program so can't calculate percentage loss.  Bought at like 12, 14, 16, trading now at $7.49.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 29, 2020, 03:02:42 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 27, 2020, 04:30:35 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 27, 2020, 03:18:20 PM
So... This tech bubble.... Massive sign of a screwed up economy right? I all that money being traded back and forth between people over shares of a few firms rather than being invested into value making business....

Kind of, but probably not in the way you are thinking.

The ridiculously low yields on bank savings and bonds has definitely pushed people into equities.  On the other hand, the ridiculously low yields on bank lending and bonds means anyone who wants to borrow to finance the purchase of plant and equipment can do so very easily.

Yeah, the point is though they aren't. This kind of productive investment, the sign of a healthy economy, isn't happening. Instead it's all going into the bubble.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 03:25:20 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 03:02:42 AM
Yeah, the point is though they aren't. This kind of productive investment, the sign of a healthy economy, isn't happening. Instead it's all going into the bubble.

I don't know what you mean by "it."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 29, 2020, 03:51:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 03:25:20 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 03:02:42 AM
Yeah, the point is though they aren't. This kind of productive investment, the sign of a healthy economy, isn't happening. Instead it's all going into the bubble.

I don't know what you mean by "it."
££££
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 29, 2020, 05:18:48 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 27, 2020, 03:18:20 PM
So... This tech bubble.... Massive sign of a screwed up economy right? I all that money being traded back and forth between people over shares of a few firms rather than being invested into value making business....

Why do you think it's a bubble?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 29, 2020, 05:20:33 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 29, 2020, 05:18:48 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 27, 2020, 03:18:20 PM
So... This tech bubble.... Massive sign of a screwed up economy right? I all that money being traded back and forth between people over shares of a few firms rather than being invested into value making business....

Why do you think it's a bubble?

You can call it overinflation due to speculation I guess but "bubble" is easier and means the same thing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 29, 2020, 06:52:59 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 29, 2020, 05:20:33 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 29, 2020, 05:18:48 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 27, 2020, 03:18:20 PM
So... This tech bubble.... Massive sign of a screwed up economy right? I all that money being traded back and forth between people over shares of a few firms rather than being invested into value making business....

Why do you think it's a bubble?

You can call it overinflation due to speculation I guess but "bubble" is easier and means the same thing.

Ok, why do you think it's that?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 29, 2020, 07:43:07 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 29, 2020, 06:52:59 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 29, 2020, 05:20:33 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 29, 2020, 05:18:48 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 27, 2020, 03:18:20 PM
So... This tech bubble.... Massive sign of a screwed up economy right? I all that money being traded back and forth between people over shares of a few firms rather than being invested into value making business....

Why do you think it's a bubble?

You can call it overinflation due to speculation I guess but "bubble" is easier and means the same thing.

Ok, why do you think it's that?

e.g.

QuoteToday the stocks in the Nasdaq Composite Index are valued in aggregate at a wild, sky-high $17 trillion. That's equal to 90% of the entire U.S. gross domestic product, and more than half the market value of all U.S. traded stocks.

So why do you think he is wrong about it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 29, 2020, 10:09:35 AM
I hate to answer with a question, but why do you think that ratio is a signal that the Nasdaq is overvalued?

FWIW, you're mixing flow (GDP per year) with asset value (which includes flow from future years).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 29, 2020, 10:16:33 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 29, 2020, 10:09:35 AM
I hate to answer with a question, but why do you think that ratio is a signal that the Nasdaq is overvalued?

FWIW, you're mixing flow (GDP per year) with asset value (which includes flow from future years).

Why do you think ratio is not a signal that the Nasdaq is overvalued?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: grumbler on August 29, 2020, 10:29:17 AM
The reason that the NASDAQ looks over-priced is because the intangible value of the assets being traded seems to outweigh the tangible value of those assets.  The value of intangible assets is highly volatile and the NASDAQ investors seem to be ignoring that fact.

Do you believe that the NYSE was not over-valued on September 3, 1929?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 01:40:46 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 03:51:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 03:25:20 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 03:02:42 AM
Yeah, the point is though they aren't. This kind of productive investment, the sign of a healthy economy, isn't happening. Instead it's all going into the bubble.

I don't know what you mean by "it."
££££

You seem to be suggesting that companies and individuals are borrowing money to buy stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 29, 2020, 01:55:56 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 01:40:46 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 03:51:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 03:25:20 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 03:02:42 AM
Yeah, the point is though they aren't. This kind of productive investment, the sign of a healthy economy, isn't happening. Instead it's all going into the bubble.

I don't know what you mean by "it."
££££

You seem to be suggesting that companies and individuals are borrowing money to buy stocks.

Why wouldn't institutions do so? Banks especially. Not directly, but the money printing loans they get from the fed to bolster their reserves frees them up to be more brave elsewhere.

Plus if one trades on margin that's kind of like a loan is it not?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 01:59:49 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 29, 2020, 01:55:56 PM
Why wouldn't institutions do so? Banks especially. Not directly, but the money printing loans they get from the fed to bolster their reserves frees them up to be more brave elsewhere.

Plus if one trades on margin that's kind of like a loan is it not?

Banks have limits on proprietary trading.  Banks are not the only companies that borrow money.

Trading on margin would apply.  Is there any evidence of an increase in margin trading?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 29, 2020, 02:09:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 01:40:46 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 03:51:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 03:25:20 AM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 03:02:42 AM
Yeah, the point is though they aren't. This kind of productive investment, the sign of a healthy economy, isn't happening. Instead it's all going into the bubble.

I don't know what you mean by "it."
££££

You seem to be suggesting that companies and individuals are borrowing money to buy stocks.

Not something which really came into my thought process. They could well be.
More that the money which is available, whether on hand or borrowed, is being pumped into pushing some tech stocks ever higher rather than into actual businesses.
There seems to be little confidence for startups or even established businesses looking to raise funds. Instead everyone is trading amongst themselves, speculating on pushing up tesla, apple, etc... ever higher and higher.
The more I learn about this stuff the more it becomes clear that there are two kinds of high stock market, a healthy and an unhealthy one...and we are very much in the latter.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 02:28:48 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 02:09:35 PM
Not something which really came into my thought process. They could well be.
More that the money which is available, whether on hand or borrowed, is being pumped into pushing some tech stocks ever higher rather than into actual businesses.
There seems to be little confidence for startups or even established businesses looking to raise funds. Instead everyone is trading amongst themselves, speculating on pushing up tesla, apple, etc... ever higher and higher.
The more I learn about this stuff the more it becomes clear that there are two kinds of high stock market, a healthy and an unhealthy one...and we are very much in the latter.

What I'm trying to point out is that "money is being pumped into pushing some tech stocks ever higher" is not an accurate representation of the workings of monetary policy.  You need an actual channel through which low interest cause people to borrow money to speculate on stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 29, 2020, 02:36:30 PM
Don't most people buying stocks just use their salary?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 02:44:02 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 02:36:30 PM
Don't most people buying stocks just use their salary?

Absolutely.  They don't borrow to do so.  So "pushing money etc. etc." doesn't make much sense.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 29, 2020, 02:48:17 PM
I'm lost. I never mentioned borrowing at all.
The money is there and being invested in the stock market.
Rather than a healthy spread that can go into actually helping businesses that need investment, ipos, non stockmaret investments  etc... It is instead going into trading top stocks back and forth.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on August 29, 2020, 02:53:26 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2020/08/27/the-stock-market-is-near-correction-levels
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 03:04:53 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 02:48:17 PM
I'm lost. I never mentioned borrowing at all.
The money is there and being invested in the stock market.
Rather than a healthy spread that can go into actually helping businesses that need investment, ipos, non stockmaret investments  etc... It is instead going into trading top stocks back and forth.

Let's start at the beginning.  We agree that most people put aside some portion of their salaries and wages and buy stocks with that money. 

In this scenario, who is doing the pushing and what does pushing consist of?  This is just a guy buying stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 11:24:22 PM
A share of Tesla is only $442 now!  Super cheap.  Time to pile in everyone!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 29, 2020, 11:33:59 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 03:04:53 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 02:48:17 PM
I'm lost. I never mentioned borrowing at all.
The money is there and being invested in the stock market.
Rather than a healthy spread that can go into actually helping businesses that need investment, ipos, non stockmaret investments  etc... It is instead going into trading top stocks back and forth.

Let's start at the beginning.  We agree that most people put aside some portion of their salaries and wages and buy stocks with that money. 

In this scenario, who is doing the pushing and what does pushing consist of?  This is just a guy buying stocks.

Buying the same few stocks. The more demand there is for a stock the more its price is pushed up by people trading it back and forth.
In more healthy times a lot of this money would instead be going elsewhere, much of it into areas that help the economy.

Also not sure that this is most people. Quite a minority I think. Maybe a majority if you weigh people by salary.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 11:50:06 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 11:33:59 PM
Buying the same few stocks. The more demand there is for a stock the more its price is pushed up by people trading it back and forth.
In more healthy times a lot of this money would instead be going elsewhere, much of it into areas that help the economy.

Got it.  Two critiques.  One is that if you sell me shares in company X, that's just a transaction between you and me.  The company can't use that money to purchase plant and equipment.  So buying this stock or that stock doesn't help any area of the economy.

Second, why do you think tech companies don't help the economy?  They hire people, they invest, they produce goods and services.  They contribute to GDP.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on August 30, 2020, 12:34:57 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 11:50:06 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 11:33:59 PM
Buying the same few stocks. The more demand there is for a stock the more its price is pushed up by people trading it back and forth.
In more healthy times a lot of this money would instead be going elsewhere, much of it into areas that help the economy.

Got it.  Two critiques.  One is that if you sell me shares in company X, that's just a transaction between you and me.  The company can't use that money to purchase plant and equipment.  So buying this stock or that stock doesn't help any area of the economy.

Second, why do you think tech companies don't help the economy?  They hire people, they invest, they produce goods and services.  They contribute to GDP.
Do public companies typically hold some of their stock in their coffers, in case they want to cash in on the "enthusiasm" for their stock without a formal issuance of additional shares?  Regardless, I imagine that higher valuation allows the companies to borrow cheaper, I know that's how it was in Railroad Tycoon 3.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 30, 2020, 01:08:52 AM
Quote from: DGuller on August 30, 2020, 12:34:57 AM
Do public companies typically hold some of their stock in their coffers, in case they want to cash in on the "enthusiasm" for their stock without a formal issuance of additional shares?  Regardless, I imagine that higher valuation allows the companies to borrow cheaper, I know that's how it was in Railroad Tycoon 3.

I don't think they hold shares on the company account, but they can always do a secondary IPO to raise money.  Tesla did that in March.  The proceeds went to the company, not any shareholders.

I don't think a higher share price decreases borrowing costs, though someone like Fredo could correct me.  I think it's all about the balance sheet, debt service, cash flow, etc.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on August 30, 2020, 02:24:19 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 29, 2020, 10:16:33 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on August 29, 2020, 10:09:35 AM
I hate to answer with a question, but why do you think that ratio is a signal that the Nasdaq is overvalued?

FWIW, you're mixing flow (GDP per year) with asset value (which includes flow from future years).

Why do you think ratio is not a signal that the Nasdaq is overvalued?

Interest rates are super low and will stay low, so DCF calculations extend far into the future.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 30, 2020, 03:05:20 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 29, 2020, 11:50:06 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 29, 2020, 11:33:59 PM
Buying the same few stocks. The more demand there is for a stock the more its price is pushed up by people trading it back and forth.
In more healthy times a lot of this money would instead be going elsewhere, much of it into areas that help the economy.

Got it.  Two critiques.  One is that if you sell me shares in company X, that's just a transaction between you and me.  The company can't use that money to purchase plant and equipment.  So buying this stock or that stock doesn't help any area of the economy.

Second, why do you think tech companies don't help the economy?  They hire people, they invest, they produce goods and services.  They contribute to GDP.

1: Yep. Thats exactly my point. This is why the NASDAQ-100 and the like hitting all time highs is not necessarily the great economic indicator it is presented as. Often its quite the opposite. And there's a feedback loop built in that makes it more than just an indicator. We are in one of those times.

2: Because of point 1. The money isn't going to them. It isn't contributing to anything other than higher stock prices.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 30, 2020, 03:13:37 AM
I am having a great deal of difficulty following your train of thought Squeeze.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 30, 2020, 07:26:36 AM
There is an immense amount of capital/money available; but instead of funding new firms and industries it is inflating existing stock and property prices. If the economy was more innovative then people would have better things to invest in.

I think that is what Tyr is saying; I'm inclined to agree if it is.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 30, 2020, 08:51:09 AM
Also, Yi, concluding that stocks are overinflated doesn't mean that it is a bad idea to invest in them, or that those who have made a mistake.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: grumbler on August 30, 2020, 09:10:00 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 30, 2020, 08:51:09 AM
Also, Yi, concluding that stocks are overinflated doesn't mean that it is a bad idea to invest in them, or that those who have made a mistake.

It's not a mistake so long as the investor understands the volatility of the price of the asset he or she is buying.  The problem with bubbles is that this idea gets lost in the rush to "buy before the price goes up even more."

If you truly believe that a stock is over-inflated in value, the only reason to hang on to it is because you think that you are smarter than the market and can time your sale of the asset better than the average buyer, so that you can sell at or near the price peak.  Otherwise, you should sell the overinflated stocks and use the money to buy underappreciated stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 30, 2020, 01:46:53 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 30, 2020, 07:26:36 AM
There is an immense amount of capital/money available; but instead of funding new firms and industries it is inflating existing stock and property prices. If the economy was more innovative then people would have better things to invest in.

I think that is what Tyr is saying; I'm inclined to agree if it is.



:yes:

A bit of a problem in the world at large for decades to some extent. But now more than ever we are in this situation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 30, 2020, 02:13:29 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 30, 2020, 01:46:53 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 30, 2020, 07:26:36 AM
There is an immense amount of capital/money available; but instead of funding new firms and industries it is inflating existing stock and property prices. If the economy was more innovative then people would have better things to invest in.

I think that is what Tyr is saying; I'm inclined to agree if it is.



:yes:

A bit of a problem in the world at large for decades to some extent. But now more than ever we are in this situation.

So you guys think more money should go into Venture Capital funds?  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 31, 2020, 04:58:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 30, 2020, 02:13:29 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 30, 2020, 01:46:53 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 30, 2020, 07:26:36 AM
There is an immense amount of capital/money available; but instead of funding new firms and industries it is inflating existing stock and property prices. If the economy was more innovative then people would have better things to invest in.

I think that is what Tyr is saying; I'm inclined to agree if it is.



:yes:

A bit of a problem in the world at large for decades to some extent. But now more than ever we are in this situation.

So you guys think more money should go into Venture Capital funds?  :hmm:

That could be one way. Or a better system for mico-investing, particularly locally, could be great. Or a better system for mature companies to raise funds by selling new options of some form. Or go completely away from the stock market and people just spend more on stuff for their life; a very tricky one.  There's probably a lot of good ideas that haven't come to me in a few minutes of quick thought.
The problem is obvious. The solution less-so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 12:57:20 PM
Tesla up another 10% after the split.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 01:06:22 PM
Which I guess you would argue is perfectly rational for a company making niche cars for the rich.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 31, 2020, 01:35:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 12:57:20 PM
Tesla up another 10% after the split.

Fuck. If only I ever had money to invest.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 01:44:26 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 01:06:22 PM
Which I guess you would argue is perfectly rational for a company making niche cars for the rich.

I wouldn't argue this because they make mass-market cars too, and I don't see any connection between the market they serve and the share price rising after a split.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 01:45:27 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 31, 2020, 01:35:47 PM
Fuck. If only I ever had money to invest.

I understand now how teh gays get so rich.  No kids, plenty of disposable income.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on August 31, 2020, 01:48:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 01:45:27 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 31, 2020, 01:35:47 PM
Fuck. If only I ever had money to invest.

I understand now how teh gays get so rich.  No kids, plenty of disposable income.

Well to be fair I was in even worse shape back when I had no kids :blush:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 02:13:23 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 01:44:26 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 01:06:22 PM
Which I guess you would argue is perfectly rational for a company making niche cars for the rich.

I wouldn't argue this because they make mass-market cars too, and I don't see any connection between the market they serve and the share price rising after a split.

Which one is their mass market model?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 02:34:12 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 02:13:23 PM
Which one is their mass market model?

3
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 02:36:10 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 02:34:12 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 02:13:23 PM
Which one is their mass market model?

3

Mate, that STARTS from £42k. That is not mass market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 02:42:56 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 02:36:10 PM
Mate, that STARTS from £42k. That is not mass market.

It's a lot cheaper outside You Kay.  32ish?  I know they discounted off that price in China, don't know if they did elsewhere.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 02:46:35 PM
Leaving that aside, if we assume for the sake of argument that Tesla produces cars only for rich dickheads, what does that have to do with the share price rising after a split?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 02:57:32 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 02:46:35 PM
Leaving that aside, if we assume for the sake of argument that Tesla produces cars only for rich dickheads, what does that have to do with the share price rising after a split?

More with the overall valuation of the company than the post-split FOMO-fueled rise, really.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on August 31, 2020, 05:09:06 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 02:42:56 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 31, 2020, 02:36:10 PM
Mate, that STARTS from £42k. That is not mass market.

It's a lot cheaper outside You Kay.  32ish?  I know they discounted off that price in China, don't know if they did elsewhere.

I've noticed that Tesla's have an even more premium price here in Albion.  It's as if they just decided not to bother with a GBP/USD conversion and leave the numbers the same.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 07:44:58 PM
Don't Britanicos pay an ass load of car sales tax?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on August 31, 2020, 11:23:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 07:44:58 PM
Don't Britanicos pay an ass load of car sales tax?

VAT of 20% will be charged, as it is for most things.......that may account for the higher price.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on September 01, 2020, 03:11:30 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 31, 2020, 01:35:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 31, 2020, 12:57:20 PM
Tesla up another 10% after the split.

Fuck. If only I ever had money to invest.

Stop spending on family and save.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 01, 2020, 04:13:40 AM
QuoteApple overtakes FTSE 100
Here's one for the history books - Apple is now worth more than every company in the FTSE 100, combined!

After rallying (yet again) yesterday, the world's most valuable company is now worth over $2.1 trillion, an all-time record.

In contrast the Footsie (which is woefully light on tech stocks) is now worth around £1.5 trillion, or roughly $2 trillion.

While Apple has surged by an astonishing 75% this year, the blue-chip FTSE 100 has lost over 20% of its value since January 1st, in a blow to UK savers and investors.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 01, 2020, 08:13:23 AM
Lloyds has sunk another -5% today WTF :bleeding: I am at the stage with it where it just doesn't worth selling the stocks might as well let it ride down to zero for the off chance it ever recovers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2020, 04:47:26 PM
Tesla: HAMMERED
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 08, 2020, 04:57:39 PM
Damn it, I was just starting to research how to short that bubble, and as usual I'm a couple of days late to the party.  There is still plenty of downside, that I am sure, but it sucks to have missed out on the most certain part of it.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on September 08, 2020, 05:07:01 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 08, 2020, 04:57:39 PM
Damn it, I was just starting to research how to short that bubble, and as usual I'm a couple of days late to the party.  There is still plenty of downside, that I am sure, but it sucks to have missed out on the most certain part of it.  :(

Well it looks certain now but it wasn't when it started. Tesla's price can change quite violently so it was a risky proposition to short it, I lost most of what I gained from following it up the second half of August, refusing to believe this is THE collapse I was expecting a month or two later.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 08, 2020, 05:10:13 PM
Quote from: Tamas on September 08, 2020, 05:07:01 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 08, 2020, 04:57:39 PM
Damn it, I was just starting to research how to short that bubble, and as usual I'm a couple of days late to the party.  There is still plenty of downside, that I am sure, but it sucks to have missed out on the most certain part of it.  :(

Well it looks certain now but it wasn't when it started. Tesla's price can change quite violently so it was a risky proposition to short it, I lost most of what I gained from following it up the second half of August, refusing to believe this is THE collapse I was expecting a month or two later.
That's why I was researching it as opposed to diving head first.  Once the P/E ratio goes into a completely insane territory, there is no telling how much more insane it can get before something happens that is interpreted as a sign to wrap it up.  I know that with short plays you can easily be forced to realize the loss before reality catches up to your position.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2020, 05:23:05 PM
If you were/are considering short selling, don't.  You have unlimited downside risk.  If you want to make a bet the price will fall, buy puts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Napoleon XIV on September 11, 2020, 08:03:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2020, 05:23:05 PM
If you were/are considering short selling, don't.  You have unlimited downside risk.  If you want to make a bet the price will fall, buy puts.

Unless you cover the short with a purchased call.  That'd insulate you from the unlimited risk at least during the pendency of the contract.  But nothing is going to save you from short interest and dividends.  I learned that the hard (albeit moderately creative) way while sitting in a Fed Tax class in law school.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on September 12, 2020, 03:59:20 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2020, 05:23:05 PM
If you were/are considering short selling, don't.  You have unlimited downside risk.  If you want to make a bet the price will fall, buy puts.

Yeah, easier to burn your money with crappy 3X inverse leveraged ETFs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on September 14, 2020, 04:48:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 08, 2020, 04:47:26 PM
Tesla: HAMMERED

And...back up. :mellow:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on September 27, 2020, 08:11:27 AM
Quote from: DGullerIs PredictIt even a valid market, from a technical perspective?  The low betting limits seem to be a significant impediment towards making the market efficient.  My understanding is that sometimes you need a hammer of a huge bet to whack some sense into the market.

Moving from the US elections thread to here.

If the $850 limit makes markets less efficient, that is quality from the perspective of someone on the platform (though a negative that you can't place that "big bet").

Predictit charges 10% of winning trades and a 5% withdrawal fee. So if I buy a share at $0.50, and sell it at $0.60, predictit will give me $0.59 with $0.01 taken by the exchange (10% of winnings).

I started with $2k and put $1700 on the republicans to lose the presidential election and donald trump to lose with them at 44%. Since I can only do $850 per market, that is the max I could do (they have separate markets for the personal winner of the presidential election--you can still bet on Bloomberg  :P--and the party of the winner).

But they also have state wide races--which are bizarre. California is 6% chance of Trump -- I started by using my left over $300 going against Trump here. But then I had an idea and dropped another $1k and bet more against Trump in California and against Trump in NY state--where he is at 7% to win.

I would deposit a lot more money to bet on these type of races--I think the chance that Trump wins California or NY state is effective 0%. I think I'm basically getting a pretty good interest rate on a deposit. But there won't be another presidential election next year, and I'm worried about getting money stuck on the site. If this is a one time thing, I'm probably not going to get much on the California or NY state investments--I'm barely breaking even if I immediately withdraw the money after the election when i get hit with a 5% withdrawal fee.

Hopefully if Biden wins the overall election (and squeeks out victories in California and NY) I'll have about $4400 on the site and there will be enough obvious stuff to bet on next year that I can make something off that money. But the $850 limit is constraining.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on September 27, 2020, 11:14:33 AM
Yeah, I wonder how much value you can put on PredictIt odds when the market is clearly not efficient enough to even clear out 5-7% Trump victory chance in CA and NY.  The low betting limits prevent people from collecting nickels in front of steamrollers, which is dangerous but essential for market efficiency.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on September 27, 2020, 12:47:19 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 27, 2020, 11:14:33 AM
Yeah, I wonder how much value you can put on PredictIt odds when the market is clearly not efficient enough to even clear out 5-7% Trump victory chance in CA and NY.  The low betting limits prevent people from collecting nickels in front of steamrollers, which is dangerous but essential for market efficiency.

I may contribute more as we get closer to the election to try to capture the nickels if polls stay as they are. I'm not dismissive of a wave election in either direction if we are putting the odds extremely low.

The debates are a total wild card: either candidate could have a serious senior moment up to and including forgetting where they are and dropping trou and taking a dump on the debate stage.

Even without that possibility, there seems a decent chance people are going to realize that Trump really is an awful president, things really do suck, and a late break will turn his current 7 point deficit into something double digits.

Or on the other hand, democrats are disproportionately deterred from voting due to covid. Or more ominously, volunteering in urban areas, so voting in those areas becomes chaotic with a lack of poll workers. Or there are issues with mail in ballots (disqualifications, delivery, outright fraud, or some combination). The ultimate result being votes counted in 2020 being cast by a demographic group very different than what was expected.

That said--Trump at better than 5% in California and NY seems ridiculous.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on October 29, 2020, 02:27:39 PM
So... The market seems to be crashing a bit?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 29, 2020, 02:35:01 PM
I mean, I would not call a 3% drop followed by a 1.5% rise crashing a bit?  That doesn't even meet the requirement for a correction, which is less than a crash?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 29, 2020, 03:13:48 PM
I mean, it's probably profit-taking pre-election or just buyers staying away until then.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 30, 2020, 07:34:49 AM
Intel got totally unfairly massacred for only matching earning expectations though. My stocks went from 11% up to 8% down in a space of a week.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 30, 2020, 07:42:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 30, 2020, 07:34:49 AM
Intel got totally unfairly massacred for only matching earning expectations though. My stocks went from 11% up to 8% down in a space of a week.
I think it was massacred because AMD surged.  While AMD surged mostly at Nvidia's expense, I would think that any good news for AMD is bad news for Intel.  The more robust AMD is, the more of a threat to Intel it is.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 30, 2020, 07:45:24 AM
AMD last surge was exactly the same time Intel fell in after hours following the earnings report.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 30, 2020, 07:59:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 30, 2020, 07:45:24 AM
AMD last surge was exactly the same time Intel fell in after hours following the earnings report.
And also the time they announced that their new GPU cards have gone from being shit to being the shit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 30, 2020, 11:06:55 AM
Quote from: DGuller on October 30, 2020, 07:59:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 30, 2020, 07:45:24 AM
AMD last surge was exactly the same time Intel fell in after hours following the earnings report.
And also the time they announced that their new GPU cards have gone from being shit to being the shit.

Isn't it though that that non-gaming hardware use far more Intel? To me AMD looks overvalued, pumped up by Robin Hood-using neckbeards.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on October 30, 2020, 12:02:29 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 30, 2020, 11:06:55 AM
Isn't it though that that non-gaming hardware use far more Intel? To me AMD looks overvalued, pumped up by Robin Hood-using neckbeards.
I see no reason why that should persist, especially given Intel's price gouging for non-consumer hardware, which was more egregious than even for consumer hardware.  Big corporations have a lot of inertia, but they also have a lot of bean counters.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 06:51:00 PM
Market nicely up today.  :cool:

Yo Tams, you buy Uber?  Big jump today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on November 04, 2020, 07:18:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 06:51:00 PM
Market nicely up today.  :cool:

Yo Tams, you buy Uber?  Big jump today.

Yeah up like 33 percent on it overall. I will have a look at it tomorrow and might take the humble profits.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 04, 2020, 07:23:24 PM
Fucking day traders.  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on November 05, 2020, 01:18:12 PM
Nah I am keeping it for a while.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on November 06, 2020, 11:38:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 05, 2020, 01:18:12 PM
Nah I am keeping it for a while.

This was the right call, for once.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on November 25, 2020, 02:38:57 AM
I'm a lazy investor. I have a few investment funds that my bank runs and where I invest monthly. Mostly future tech, emerging markets, green tech, tech to tackle climate change/mitigate its effects etc.

Amusingly, since the start of the pandemic the value of my portfolio for one that's basically run by the World Wildlife Fund has gained over 30%, while the Biotec one is down 13% :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on November 25, 2020, 11:17:22 AM
Quote from: Syt on November 25, 2020, 02:38:57 AM
I'm a lazy investor. I have a few investment funds that my bank runs and where I invest monthly. Mostly future tech, emerging markets, green tech, tech to tackle climate change/mitigate its effects etc.

Amusingly, since the start of the pandemic the value of my portfolio for one that's basically run by the World Wildlife Fund has gained over 30%, while the Biotec one is down 13% :lol:

Yeah I wish I realised that back in April, probably missed a lifetime chance of loading up on some big tech companies on semi-reasonable prices.

The sort of tech-based meme market is still swinging though to some degree. Spent a little money on Uber, cashed out when it was +35% up, then as an even bigger gamble spent all that money on Palantir shares about a week ago. It's some data software company. They had good quarterly results and turned out Soros invested in them back in September, so I jumped in when it was something like $17.6 per share, today it is flirting with $26.

These are now compensating for my terrible moves a couple of years back, when I invested in Lloyds bank right up at their top, and in one of them weed companies about 8% shy of their all time high, now both worth little more than half of their value then. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 25, 2020, 11:14:53 PM
I'm thinking of dumping my loser Yuro etfs after the December dividends pay out and reinvesting in Boeing.

TALK ME OUT OF IT.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on November 26, 2020, 05:31:22 AM
Citibank (and others) seem to think that the dollar will fall a lot next year :

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-dollar-forecast/vaccine-rollout-could-cause-u-s-dollar-to-fall-20-in-2021-citi-idUSKBN27W25E
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 03, 2020, 07:25:01 PM
Goldman announced a 780 price target for Tesla.

Airbnb IPO filing says price between 35 and 40, implied valuation of 35 billion.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2020, 06:30:24 PM
Airbnb to IPO on 12/9, first day of trading 12/10.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on December 07, 2020, 08:05:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2020, 06:30:24 PM
Airbnb to IPO on 12/9, first day of trading 12/10.

Thanks for the heads-up. What's our take on it, then? I defo want to invest into it, but a valuation of $40 IIRC, it might take a nose-dive from there before goes back up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on December 07, 2020, 09:51:32 AM
I'm pretty bullish on AirBNB, at least long-term. It's an excellent business model that's recovered quite a bit in the wake of the 'Rona. They also have a lot of leverage on their "suppliers" in terms of squeezing fees and such. The real trouble is (obviously, nothing new here) going to come from potential regulations on the local scale.

As usual with these things, though, I don't recommend buying and selling individual stocks. Now, crypto on the other hand...  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on December 07, 2020, 11:18:23 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on December 07, 2020, 09:51:32 AM
As usual with these things, though, I don't recommend buying and selling individual stocks. Now, crypto on the other hand...  :P

Oh shut up. :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on December 07, 2020, 11:26:15 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on December 07, 2020, 09:51:32 AM
Now, crypto on the other hand...  :P

I recently got rid of my bitcoin money. I got it as vouchers for christmas/belated 5 year gift from the company almost 3 years ago. I waited a good few months before using the vouchers, but the rate still dropped significantly after that. I recently sold when it finally became about 15 or 20% worth more than what I originally cashed in on. Deleted my wallet and am done with this. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 07, 2020, 01:15:35 PM
Quote from: Tamas on December 07, 2020, 08:05:56 AM
Thanks for the heads-up. What's our take on it, then? I defo want to invest into it, but a valuation of $40 IIRC, it might take a nose-dive from there before goes back up.

My magic eight ball says the price is going to climb straight out of the gate.  Fanbois on youtube are geeking out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on December 07, 2020, 01:35:53 PM
Quote from: Tamas on December 07, 2020, 11:18:23 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on December 07, 2020, 09:51:32 AM
As usual with these things, though, I don't recommend buying and selling individual stocks. Now, crypto on the other hand...  :P

Oh shut up. :rolleyes:

The latest shitcoins are going to moon despite your FOMO.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on December 07, 2020, 04:53:01 PM
Quote from: Syt on December 07, 2020, 11:26:15 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on December 07, 2020, 09:51:32 AM
Now, crypto on the other hand...  :P

I recently got rid of my bitcoin money. I got it as vouchers for christmas/belated 5 year gift from the company almost 3 years ago. I waited a good few months before using the vouchers, but the rate still dropped significantly after that. I recently sold when it finally became about 15 or 20% worth more than what I originally cashed in on. Deleted my wallet and am done with this. :P

:cheers: Good call.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 08, 2020, 07:39:44 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWfEmVe5dlg

Cramer says he expects airbnb to open 56-60.

68 or lower, buy buy buy.  80 leave it alone.

I don't pay that much attention to Cramer (in part because I can't understand his mumbling) but it is nice to have some buy/don't price parameters.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on December 08, 2020, 07:43:29 PM
I have put some playing around money into the psychedelics.  Now I wish I had put some real money into it.   Up over 50%
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 10, 2020, 12:12:50 PM
Now ABNB is opening at 68 and expected to rise to 153 when trading starts later in the day.  Too rich for my blood, sitting it out.  Bought Beoing with that money instead.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 10, 2020, 02:30:39 PM
Kaboom.  145.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 13, 2020, 10:15:23 PM
Options premiums are pretty rich on Tesla.  Am giving thought to getting back in the covered call business.

1 12/28 call @800 would give me c. $1,000.

Any thoughts?  Tonto, you in particular?

Worst case is Tesla zooms up way past 800/share in two weeks, I cash out 100 shares at 800 per.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on December 14, 2020, 12:31:41 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on December 08, 2020, 07:43:29 PM
I have put some playing around money into the psychedelics.  Now I wish I had put some real money into it.   Up over 50%


I bought mind medicine at 2 and it is now above 6. 

One thing you guys might want to think about is not investing in the names that you and everyone else already knows.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 22, 2020, 02:59:08 PM
Bought some NNDM.

Brain, did you buy Spotify?  I see it has been on a tear.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on December 24, 2020, 03:20:41 AM
I am a winnah.
Bought a batch of clean energy fuels stock and it spiked. Other green energy stuff is doing well too.
Still can't help but feel paranoid about actually getting the cash monies from all this when I need it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 24, 2020, 06:00:17 PM
Quote from: Tyr on December 24, 2020, 03:20:41 AM
Still can't help but feel paranoid about actually getting the cash monies from all this when I need it.

I know exactly how you feel.

The first time a withdrawal actually showed up in my bank account was a relief.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 04:57:16 PM
Lending Club has gone belly up looks like.  Not accepting any more funds.

Don't read further if bragging bothers you.

I just had the most monumental year in terms of investments.  The IRA is up 122% year to date.  Total net worth up 87%.  Hooray.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on December 31, 2020, 05:00:14 PM
:cheers:

Them's some good returns, Yi.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 05:01:59 PM
Thanks  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 31, 2020, 05:02:23 PM
According to Wiki, LC hasn't gone belly up, but rather they're winding down.  As far as your IRA returns, I could've done that as well if I sold before the Covid crash and bought back in at the bottom.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on December 31, 2020, 07:52:51 PM
Nice work, Yi. :cool:

CC, I looked at your Mind Medicine company's financials.... they don't look like a 'real' company to me... like it doesn't look like they have any employees based on their income statement?  Do you know these folks personally or something?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on December 31, 2020, 08:29:57 PM
Quote from: DGuller on December 31, 2020, 05:02:23 PM
As far as your IRA returns, I could've done that as well if I sold before the Covid crash and bought back in at the bottom.

I too could have made money if i bought stocks and sold them at the right time


:P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 08:41:06 PM
Quote from: DGuller on December 31, 2020, 05:02:23 PM
According to Wiki, LC hasn't gone belly up, but rather they're winding down.  As far as your IRA returns, I could've done that as well if I sold before the Covid crash and bought back in at the bottom.

I thought you were talking BS, what with the S&P only up 12ish for the year, but if my math is right that checks out.  I get like 150% return.

Did you read that somewhere, or did you run the numbers to satisfy some funky Jewish anal-retentive psychological need?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on December 31, 2020, 10:54:10 PM
I made a blind guess  :blush:.  I did wonder later on if a single sell and buy sequence would get the job done, but it was too late, so I tried to not think about it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on January 01, 2021, 03:23:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 04:57:16 PM
Lending Club has gone belly up looks like.  Not accepting any more funds.

Don't read further if bragging bothers you.

I just had the most monumental year in terms of investments.  The IRA is up 122% year to date.  Total net worth up 87%.  Hooray.

Excellent returns, you must have timed your buys and sells almost perfectly  :cheers:

I'm up 18% on the year; I sold at the perfect point early in the year but was slow to get back in, portfolio is also heavy with LSE which has not gone well at all this year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 01, 2021, 03:25:51 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 01, 2021, 03:23:41 AM
Excellent returns, you must have timed your buys and sells almost perfectly  :cheers:

My timing was mediocre.  I started getting in too early.

My great fortune was to have bought into a couple of monsters a while back.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 01, 2021, 06:06:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 31, 2020, 04:57:16 PM
Lending Club has gone belly up looks like.  Not accepting any more funds.

Don't read further if bragging bothers you.

I just had the most monumental year in terms of investments.  The IRA is up 122% year to date.  Total net worth up 87%.  Hooray.

I'm close...around 76% (that is only from March on...as my brokerage switched, it would take more work to get complete numbers).  Most of it driven by a timely TSLA buy, and dragged down a bit by my REITs, which have been mostly hammered by COVID.

AAPL and MSFT are also big contributors...also done very well with TRUP.  I figured you can always count on people to be a bit fanatic and splurge on their pets.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 01, 2021, 07:18:33 AM
Good on ya mate. :cheers:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 01, 2021, 08:32:32 AM
I had made a good profit on TSLA 4-5 years ago, and just took a quick profit on it.  Perhaps the key difference between that time and this, is that this time I bought TSLA from my Roth IRA account. 

I'm holding it for now...but I'll likely dump it as soon as it starts any kind of trend downwards (but worry that it won't trend down, but crash down).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on January 01, 2021, 09:58:43 AM
Tesla really has a marvellous product and is exactly right in time. I've been comparing different electrical vehicles and it's quite obvious that Tesla is head and shoulders above the competition. Kind of like Apple. Perhaps not the best based on raw compared data points, but the experience as a whole is just totally superior.

Tesla does not have the financial numbers to explain its valuation and I think it's grossly over-valued right now, but it seems to be a healthy company with a superior product. I can see a re-evaluation, but I think it will still hold a significant value for the next ten years or so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 02, 2021, 12:34:23 PM
So are the stimulus checks going straight into bitcoin or what? People should stick to meme stocks instead of this shit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 02, 2021, 01:04:11 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 01, 2021, 06:06:41 AM
also done very well with TRUP.

QuoteTrupanion is a pet insurance provider based in Seattle, Washington, that offers and administers cat and dog insurance in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Puerto Rico.

I thought I was easily winning the Most Obscure Investment contest with my pipeline ETF but you smash it with TRUP.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 02, 2021, 01:58:37 PM
I think the main reasons I picked it up are; the aforementioned faith in people spending on their fur babies...and that it is Seattle-based.  I do have a definite hometown/area bias in my stock picks (i.e. MSFT, SBUX, COST...I held PCAR for a long time).

For example, BLFS is another one I have done pretty well with.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 02, 2021, 04:27:36 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 02, 2021, 12:34:23 PM
So are the stimulus checks going straight into bitcoin or what? People should stick to meme stocks instead of this shit.

:hmm: Why stick to meme stocks if Bitcoin is up 500% or whatever?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 02, 2021, 04:40:45 PM
I do think that the reason we seem to have so many asset bubbles lately is that a lot of cash makes its way to the people who frankly already have so much they don't know what to do with it.  They've done all the consumption they were going to do, so now they have to figure out how make more money out of the extra money they have lying around.  Had more of that extra cash made its way to the poorer people, then we'd have consumer price inflation (remember that?) instead of asset bubbles.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 02, 2021, 05:20:48 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 02, 2021, 04:27:36 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 02, 2021, 12:34:23 PM
So are the stimulus checks going straight into bitcoin or what? People should stick to meme stocks instead of this shit.

:hmm: Why stick to meme stocks if Bitcoin is up 500% or whatever?

I own a meme stock but I do not own Bitcoin :p
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 02, 2021, 11:08:12 PM
Oh, so you sold it all after the run-up? Good move!  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 03, 2021, 05:50:44 PM
I am currently happy with my crypto investments.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2021, 12:18:55 PM
Never a dull moment with Tesla.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 04, 2021, 03:47:23 PM
Quote from: Caliga on December 31, 2020, 07:52:51 PM
Nice work, Yi. :cool:

CC, I looked at your Mind Medicine company's financials.... they don't look like a 'real' company to me... like it doesn't look like they have any employees based on their income statement?  Do you know these folks personally or something?

They reported a payroll of over 1 million in the third quarter.  Government regulation has just recently began allowing more research so I anticipate that will grow.  I don't know these folks.  But I do know folks in another company in this area of research in which I have also invested.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 09:50:26 AM
Big jump in ganja stock on GA election news.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 06, 2021, 09:51:19 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 09:50:26 AM
Big jump in ganja stock on GA election news.  :D

Yay, I am now only -31% on Canopy  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 09:56:30 AM
Hey Tonto, I've preached to you several times about holding on to your Tesla, so in the interest of full disclosure I should tell you that I sold a covered call @750 which would get assigned if price doesn't drop by 1/8.  I do however, intend to sell the put if and when my shares get assigned.  I'm also still holding shares that aren't covering that call option.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 06, 2021, 10:45:18 AM
I'll admit to being a dummy, and not even really knowing (and obviously not caring enough to research) all the complex trading stuff like covered calls, etc.  So I honestly have no idea what that means or how it works.   :sleep:

I'm just kinda casually watching it, and guesstimating a sell/limit price essentially on whether or not I could still buy a Model X with my gains.    :P

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 06, 2021, 10:53:37 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 06, 2021, 10:45:18 AM
I'll admit to being a dummy, and not even really knowing (and obviously not caring enough to research) all the complex trading stuff like covered calls, etc.  So I honestly have no idea what that means or how it works.   :sleep:

As someone who knows the stuff very well, it's not worth your time and energy to learn and you should stay away from it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 06, 2021, 10:57:29 AM
The most annoying thing to me right now is that USAA had shuffed their brokerage services off to Charles Schwab...and CS doesn't have as an easy functionality to put a trailing stop-loss trade on a stock...probably the most "complex" and useful function I would take advantage of.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 10:58:13 AM
It's all just jargon.  A call is the option to buy shares at a predetermined price, $750 in this case.  Covered means the seller (me) has the shares to sell at that price and is contrasted with a naked call, which means you don't have the shares and if the price rises enough you (the seller) either have to run out and buy enough shares to sell to the option holder (at a loss) or buy the call to close out your option (at a loss).

tldnr: good chance I will be selling c. 2/3 of my Tesla shares this week.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 06, 2021, 12:36:35 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 06, 2021, 10:53:37 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 06, 2021, 10:45:18 AM
I'll admit to being a dummy, and not even really knowing (and obviously not caring enough to research) all the complex trading stuff like covered calls, etc.  So I honestly have no idea what that means or how it works.   :sleep:

As someone who knows the stuff very well, it's not worth your time and energy to learn and you should stay away from it.

:yes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 06, 2021, 12:44:00 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 03, 2021, 05:50:44 PM
I am currently happy with my crypto investments.  :sleep:

My son tells me that despite the runup in prices, the difficulty of mining has not increased.  The last time prices spiked lots of people tried mining (and graphics card prices went through the roof as a result).   In hindsight if he had invested the money he spent setting up his rig back in the day into crypto he would be better off today.  But his mining rig functions as a no fee cypto investment account with constant no cost* contributions.

* well except for the electricity his parents gift to him. :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 06, 2021, 12:46:40 PM
Sounds like he's getting the better end of the deal even if he could have made more money by plowing the rig costs into the actual crypto.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Caliga on January 06, 2021, 12:46:43 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 04, 2021, 03:47:23 PM
They reported a payroll of over 1 million in the third quarter.  Government regulation has just recently began allowing more research so I anticipate that will grow.  I don't know these folks.  But I do know folks in another company in this area of research in which I have also invested.
Hm, I must have misread their financials then.  I'll take another look.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 06, 2021, 12:48:13 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 06, 2021, 12:46:40 PM
Sounds like he's getting the better end of the deal even if he could have made more money by plowing the rig costs into the actual crypto.  :lol:

That is what I told him.  In the long run he will be better off.  It is essentially a mandatory dollar cost averaging savings account if he just keeps it running in our basement.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 07, 2021, 11:44:18 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2021, 10:58:13 AM
tldnr: good chance I will be selling c. 2/3 of my Tesla shares this week.

Whelp, as they're just about on their overall analyst price target...maybe I should join you. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 07, 2021, 01:21:39 PM
If you own 100 shares, you should consider selling the covered call instead of straight selling the stock.   :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on January 07, 2021, 01:26:30 PM
Apparently with the increase in TSLA Elon Musk is now the world's richest man.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 07, 2021, 02:10:23 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 07, 2021, 01:21:39 PM
If you own 100 shares, you should consider selling the covered call instead of straight selling the stock.   :)


I've done some basic reading, and am intrigued. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 07, 2021, 02:42:19 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 07, 2021, 02:10:23 PM
I've done some basic reading, and am intrigued. :hmm:

The price is dancing around $800 today.  If you straight sold you would have 80 large.  If you sold a covered call at, say $820, you would have 82 large (if it's assigned) plus the premium, which is $25/share right now.  That's for a 1/15 expiry.  If it's not assigned you would still have your shares plus the $2,500 premium.  Not the end of the world.  Pocket the premium and sell the call again the next week.

Your downside is if the price drops right after you sell the call, and you missed the opportunity to sell at some kind of peak.  You also carry the risk of the price zooming up to the stratosphere, but if you want to sell anyway that risk is moot.  When you sell options you're assuming risk in exchange for cash, but if you really do want to sell, that risk is greatly reduced.

Seeing a lot of Youtube clips about Robinhood guys chest thumping about MASSIVE OPTIONS PAYOFFS or LOL I LOST EVERYTHING YOLO makes me think these millenial knuckleheads are going to nuts in the options markets, bidding up premiums.  On CNBC I saw a story that said yes, options are being driven by retail investors.  I think they're approaching it like they do Texas hold 'em.  Pocket 10/2 unsuited?  All in!!!!  Take advantage of their fanboism.  Make some money off it.

I've also compared premiums on the stocks in my portfolio and it seems limited to certain fanboi stocks.  Tesla is definitely a fanboi stock.  Square, surprisingly, does not have very fat premiums.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 07, 2021, 03:34:07 PM
Apparently with CS, I have to submit for approval to do option trading...so I have a few days cooling off period.  :P  <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 07, 2021, 03:36:08 PM
Credit Suisse? :unsure:

That's great.  Do a hypothetical trade and see how it pans out.  Choose a strike price and expiry date.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 07, 2021, 03:36:54 PM
Charles Schwab
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 08, 2021, 11:51:51 AM
My Canopy stock has gone back to breakeven levels!  :showoff:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 08, 2021, 11:59:22 AM
 :lol: Congrats.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 08, 2021, 12:20:59 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 08, 2021, 11:59:22 AM
:lol: Congrats.

Little victories.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 08, 2021, 12:27:47 PM
Hey, no losses is a definite victory.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 08, 2021, 12:47:59 PM
Speaking of people piling into Democrat pet projects: I have about 10% profit on my Shell shares. Shall I sell them and buy a clean energy ETF for the money?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 08, 2021, 12:54:44 PM
Invest in a lithium mine.  :P

(half-joking, I've been looking at CYDVF...but it's on the OTC market, so probably really like buying a handful of lottery tickets.)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 08, 2021, 01:00:21 PM
Also...just for a timely anti-Trump inspired stock buy update...my holdings in Goodyear are so far up 20% since purchase.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 08, 2021, 05:00:09 PM
ruh roh.  Etrade just went down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 11, 2021, 04:15:26 PM
My Tesla got called, so this morning I sold a cash covered put.  1/11 expiry, @740.  This is the opposite of a call.  It gives the buyer the option to sell me 100 shares of Tesla at $740.

Premium was fatter than I expected for put so far out of the money and such a short expiry.

This alternate selling of stock covered calls and cash covered puts is called the wheel strategy.

woops, 1/15 expiry
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 11, 2021, 04:36:26 PM
The stock market is weird. Wrong company gets a price boost after a a comment by Elon.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/autos/news/elon-musk-said-use-signal-and-confused-investors-sent-the-wrong-stock-up-438-on-monday/ar-BB1cF6Zo?ocid=entnewsntp
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 02:38:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 07, 2021, 03:36:08 PM
Credit Suisse? :unsure:

That's great.  Do a hypothetical trade and see how it pans out.  Choose a strike price and expiry date.

So I got approved, and am looking at the mechanics.

TSLA has some calls at 1000, expiring on 22 Jan with a $6/share premium.  So if I bet that TSLA won't hit 1000 by that date, I'll pocket 600 bucks and likely keep my stock?  Seems like a too easy $600. :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 02:53:03 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 02:38:11 PM
So I got approved, and am looking at the mechanics.

TSLA has some calls at 1000, expiring on 22 Jan with a $6/share premium.  So if I bet that TSLA won't hit 1000 by that date, I'll pocket 600 bucks and likely keep my stock?  Seems like a too easy $600. :hmm:

That's what I thought when I sold 8 Jan calls @750, when the price was around $660.  Then the price jumped 200 bucks and my shares got assigned. 

There's no such thing as risk free profit in the market, but yeah, I think Tesla premiums are pretty juicy.  You do, however, have to be aware of the possibility, however remote, that you'll have to sell off at $1000.  Remember this whole discussion started when you were thinking about just dumping your shares.

Another upside to consider is that once you sell that call you get to feel like Gordon Gecko.  :ccr
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 02:57:25 PM
That's why it sounds too good.  :lol:

If it doesn't hit 1000 in a bit over a week (I think it's fairly unlikely), then I pocket an easy $600.  If it does...I pocket $100,600.  It seems like there is no major downside unless it shoots to something like 1200-2000/share.  And even then, that's just potential regret dollars.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 02:58:52 PM
Exactly.  The only way you lose is if it zooms way past your strike price.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 03:00:11 PM
At this point, my only major worry feels like it is having to account for it all come tax time.  :P

(I am guessing option premium income inside a Roth IRA might not be covered by the Roth tax advantage)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 03:01:55 PM
Didn't you say you hold Tesla in your Roth?  Tax free options and capital gains baby.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 04:05:20 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 02:57:25 PM
That's why it sounds too good.  :lol:

If it doesn't hit 1000 in a bit over a week (I think it's fairly unlikely), then I pocket an easy $600.  If it does...I pocket $100,600.  It seems like there is no major downside unless it shoots to something like 1200-2000/share.  And even then, that's just potential regret dollars.
What is it about the concept of "paper gains" that make people think that gains and losses don't matter?  The downside is when you have to sell the asset that is worth $1050 for $1000.  That's a $5000 loss right there. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 04:07:53 PM
Let's say you're selling your house.  One buyer offers you $1,000,000.  Another buyer offers you $1,100,000.  If you take the first offer, should you go "ka-ching, I bought that house for $600,000 five years ago", or should you go "did I just give away $100,000?"
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 04:08:55 PM
It's hard to see it as a "loss" when the cost basis is somewhere down around $100.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 04:10:30 PM
Though I know it is not exactly along the lines of what you are saying, but it is pretty close to the mindset of thinking that I could agonize, as a "loss", over every stock that I've ever sold that is now worth far more than I sold it for. 

That's a lot of agony/loss that one could do without.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 04:11:25 PM
Also, you analogy sucks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 04:14:54 PM
It should be...I am not sure the $600K house I bought will be worth $1M next week, but I'll sell a contract on it that says if someone will buy it at $1M next week (Zillow thinks it is at about $850K), they can, but they have to pay me $10,000 for that privilege, and if they won't pay $1M, they don't get it, but I keep the $10K.  Then the following week, it is appraised at $1,100,000.

Oops, turned out to not the best call I could have made...but I come out pretty well ok.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 04:16:20 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 04:07:53 PM
Let's say you're selling your house.  One buyer offers you $1,000,000.  Another buyer offers you $1,100,000.  If you take the first offer, should you go "ka-ching, I bought that house for $600,000 five years ago", or should you go "did I just give away $100,000?"

Bad analogy.  In the Tesla case we don't have the second buyer's offer yet, just the possibility of a future offer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 04:24:54 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 04:16:20 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 04:07:53 PM
Let's say you're selling your house.  One buyer offers you $1,000,000.  Another buyer offers you $1,100,000.  If you take the first offer, should you go "ka-ching, I bought that house for $600,000 five years ago", or should you go "did I just give away $100,000?"

Bad analogy.  In the Tesla case we don't have the second buyer's offer yet, just the possibility of a future offer.
You have a second buyer.  When the option matures in the money, buyer number one is the option holder.  Buyer number two is the open market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 13, 2021, 04:34:14 PM
DG in your thinking selling any stock that will ever reach a higher price point than your sale price was a net loss.

I recommend you do not start stock speculating because you will blow your brains out with that attitude.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 04:34:37 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 13, 2021, 04:10:30 PM
Though I know it is not exactly along the lines of what you are saying, but it is pretty close to the mindset of thinking that I could agonize, as a "loss", over every stock that I've ever sold that is now worth far more than I sold it for. 

That's a lot of agony/loss that one could do without.
Yes, that's right.  The factually correct mindset is knowing that it's not possible to avoid losses from buying high or selling low, though they may be very slightly reduced.  The factually incorrect mindset is pretending that losses that you couldn't reasonably avoid didn't happen, and are really those magical paper losses that are different from real losses.  As a poker player and an insurance actuary, I'm perfectly fine with the notion that I can only eliminate a miniscule percentage of the errors committed due to imperfect information; I do what I can, and it would be harder to do what I can if I had to handicap myself with an incorrect notion of what an error is.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 04:38:26 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 04:24:54 PM
You have a second buyer.  When the option matures in the money, buyer number one is the option holder.  Buyer number two is the open market.

At this moment in time, you don't have a second buyer.  *If* the market price rises in the future to the strike price, then you will have a second buyer.

Present tense and future tense.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 05:47:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 04:34:37 PM
Yes, that's right.  The factually correct mindset is knowing that it's not possible to avoid losses from buying high or selling low, though they may be very slightly reduced.  The factually incorrect mindset is pretending that losses that you couldn't reasonably avoid didn't happen, and are really those magical paper losses that are different from real losses.  As a poker player and an insurance actuary, I'm perfectly fine with the notion that I can only eliminate a miniscule percentage of the errors committed due to imperfect information; I do what I can, and it would be harder to do what I can if I had to handicap myself with an incorrect notion of what an error is.

This is a manifesto for inaction.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 06:57:06 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 05:47:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 04:34:37 PM
Yes, that's right.  The factually correct mindset is knowing that it's not possible to avoid losses from buying high or selling low, though they may be very slightly reduced.  The factually incorrect mindset is pretending that losses that you couldn't reasonably avoid didn't happen, and are really those magical paper losses that are different from real losses.  As a poker player and an insurance actuary, I'm perfectly fine with the notion that I can only eliminate a miniscule percentage of the errors committed due to imperfect information; I do what I can, and it would be harder to do what I can if I had to handicap myself with an incorrect notion of what an error is.

This is a manifesto for inaction.
I don't follow.  The only manifesto I see here is acknowledging that when your asset goes down in price, you lose money, regardless of when and at what price you acquired that asset.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 09:07:15 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 06:57:06 PM
I don't follow.  The only manifesto I see here is acknowledging that when your asset goes down in price, you lose money, regardless of when and at what price you acquired that asset.

Actually, we've been talking about acknowledging when your asset goes up in price after you've sold.

And this mindset does lead to paralysis.  Because any purchase you make could crater tomorrow, you'll never buy anything.  Because any holding could skyrocket tomorrow you'll never sell anything.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 09:19:49 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 09:07:15 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 13, 2021, 06:57:06 PM
I don't follow.  The only manifesto I see here is acknowledging that when your asset goes down in price, you lose money, regardless of when and at what price you acquired that asset.

Actually, we've been talking about acknowledging when your asset goes up in price after you've sold.

And this mindset does lead to paralysis.  Because any purchase you make could crater tomorrow, you'll never buy anything.  Because any holding could skyrocket tomorrow you'll never sell anything.
It's not a mindset, it's reality.  Mental accounting is a bias, not a sound way to think about things.  The fact that sometimes humans are ill-equipped to handle rationality is a different matter.  I still think that the best way forward is to not go down the rabbit hole of "playing with house's money" bias, and instead work on the emotions that make you paralyzed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 09:49:23 PM
Here's another way to think about it.  Let's say people have irrational fears about investing in the stock market.  For example my favorite uncle has it.  He's sure the day he invests will be 1929 all over again.

So maybe people need some mental tricks to get over that irrational fear.  "Playing with house money" could fall into that category.

My mental trick is to fall back on the efficient market hypothesis.  All available information, positive or negative, including about the future, has already been incorporated into the current stock price.  That's the price some of the smartest people in the world, with access to reams and reams of data, and with no other job than this, have decided that stock is worth.  So if I buy *any* stock I am buying it at the fair market value.  If I sell a stock I am selling it at the fair market value.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 13, 2021, 10:59:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 13, 2021, 09:49:23 PM
My mental trick is to fall back on the efficient market hypothesis.  All available information, positive or negative, including about the future, has already been incorporated into the current stock price. 


We all need our fantasies I suppose.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 14, 2021, 04:26:43 AM
I am not sure I follow the drama here.

You own a stock. Its price goes up 20%. That meets the profit target you wanted out of it, so you sell it. 3 months later stock's price increases a further 30%. So what?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 14, 2021, 04:43:39 AM
I can see how it'll be annoying if the price goes up the day after you sell, though the longer after the rise happens the less painful it gets, and more fool you for keeping an eye on it and torturing yourself.


All this stuff with options and calls boggles by brain.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 14, 2021, 05:07:18 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 14, 2021, 04:43:39 AM
I can see how it'll be annoying if the price goes up the day after you sell, though the longer after the rise happens the less painful it gets, and more fool you for keeping an eye on it and torturing yourself.


Yes but DGuller suggests that if you sell for profit, then later the stock price increases, you have suffered financial loss. Which you did not.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 14, 2021, 07:55:24 AM
What I suggest is that selling a stock at time B is either a good decision or it's not, economically speaking.  It's not a good decision for some and bad decision for others, economically speaking.  It's not like for all those who bought it at 20, it's a good decision, and for all those who bought at 30 it's not, and yet that's where mental accounting will lead you.  The gains and losses happen when the price changes, not when they're realized.

Yes, I'm ignoring taxes here, make a report to the IRS if you want.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 14, 2021, 08:03:05 AM
Incidentally, I do think that Yi has a point.  If you think that the market is efficient, and that it's generally a good investment, what matters more is if your beliefs get you in the market.  What matters none at all is whether your beliefs are rational or full of behavioral biases or superstitions.  Avoiding mental biases only matters if your skill has the possibility of changing the outcome, which isn't really the case in the efficient market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 14, 2021, 12:04:23 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 14, 2021, 08:03:05 AM
Incidentally, I do think that Yi has a point.  If you think that the market is efficient, and that it's generally a good investment, what matters more is if your beliefs get you in the market.  What matters none at all is whether your beliefs are rational or full of behavioral biases or superstitions.  Avoiding mental biases only matters if your skill has the possibility of changing the outcome, which isn't really the case in the efficient market.


I think that what matters more is investing rationally rather than on the basis of belief.  For many stock picking or doing their own investing is not a rational decision.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2021, 08:18:04 PM
Did you pull the trigger Tonto, or did Gloomy Guller scare you off?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 14, 2021, 08:40:51 PM
 :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 15, 2021, 11:21:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2021, 08:18:04 PM
Did you pull the trigger Tonto, or did Gloomy Guller scare you off?

Not yet.  Apparently I goofed and only submitted for approval to trade options on me regular account, not the Roth one.  :sleep:

But, to test the waters, I did trade a covered call from that account on AAPL at an absurd 150/share (as I am not really that inclined to unload it) that expires in a couple weeks.  That one is worth a couple hundred bucks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 15, 2021, 03:00:12 PM
When did you start speaking Irish.  ^_^

Did you get any Gecko vibe?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 15, 2021, 03:03:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 15, 2021, 03:00:12 PM
When did you start speaking Irish.  ^_^

Did you get any Gecko vibe?

:huh:

And no, not yet.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 15, 2021, 03:04:58 PM
Me account, faith and bogorah.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 19, 2021, 12:08:12 PM
Sold 1 Tesla put 1/29 @740.

Sold 7 NNDM calls 2/29 @17.50.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 21, 2021, 03:15:32 PM
I'm starting to get that itchy feeling like it's nearing time to cash out.  :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 03:18:41 PM
Cash out of Tesla? Of the stock market in general? Of your 401k?

Playing games with timing is dangerous.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 21, 2021, 03:20:48 PM
In general.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 03:41:27 PM
Everyone has to make their own decisions at the end of the day, but I strongly urge you not to play the timing game. Staying in, consistently investing, and steadily rebalancing away from risky assets as you age is the most proven means of success.

I think it's normal to get jitters as the market breaks all time highs year after year, but if you bail out now, when do you get back in? After the next crash?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 21, 2021, 04:20:10 PM
Part of the feeling, I think, is that I am pretty much at what I've seen as being my financial goal/target (well ahead of schedule)...and cashing out would mean that I may be able to just coast, without worrying as much about the ups and downs of the market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on January 21, 2021, 04:26:08 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 21, 2021, 04:20:10 PM
Part of the feeling, I think, is that I am pretty much at what I've seen as being my financial goal/target (well ahead of schedule)...and cashing out would mean that I may be able to just coast, without worrying as much about the ups and downs of the market.

Sounds like maybe you should rebalance and go more conservative, but I wouldn't recommend a wholesale exit from the stock market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 21, 2021, 04:39:32 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 21, 2021, 04:20:10 PM
Part of the feeling, I think, is that I am pretty much at what I've seen as being my financial goal/target (well ahead of schedule)...and cashing out would mean that I may be able to just coast, without worrying as much about the ups and downs of the market.

For God sake man, do not go to languish for financial advice, get a good certified financial planner to figure out how to meet your investment goals.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 21, 2021, 04:51:39 PM
I wasn't seeking advice...venting/thinking out loud more than anything.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 05:04:44 PM
For starters, you can't cash out your Roth or regular IRA (if you have one) without significant tax penalties.

Look at your options.  You don't want your wealth sitting in cash, or in savings or CDs earning 50 or 75 basis points.

I'm in a similar situation to you.  Last years gains have put me ahead of target.  What I did was sold off some losers and put a chunk of money into a dividend ETF.  The one I bought is WDIV, yielding 5.5%.

My advice to you is to rotate some money into dividend stocks, keep on making max annual contributions to the Roth (possibly using funds from your regular brokerage account), and have some cash on hand for if and when the forecast market correction comes.

You can keep on holding high flyers in your Roth as long as you're diversified.

Buying an annuity is an option, but stay away from fixed index annuities.  They are a scam.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 21, 2021, 05:34:26 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 21, 2021, 04:51:39 PM
I wasn't seeking advice...venting/thinking out loud more than anything.  :sleep:

I figured.  It is just that when I read Yi's posts giving advice about how to do this and that, it is worth stating the obvious from time to time.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 06:00:06 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 21, 2021, 04:39:32 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 21, 2021, 04:20:10 PM
Part of the feeling, I think, is that I am pretty much at what I've seen as being my financial goal/target (well ahead of schedule)...and cashing out would mean that I may be able to just coast, without worrying as much about the ups and downs of the market.

For God sake man, do not go to languish for financial advice, get a good certified financial planner to figure out how to meet your investment goals.

:contract:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 21, 2021, 06:06:59 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 06:00:06 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 21, 2021, 04:39:32 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 21, 2021, 04:20:10 PM
Part of the feeling, I think, is that I am pretty much at what I've seen as being my financial goal/target (well ahead of schedule)...and cashing out would mean that I may be able to just coast, without worrying as much about the ups and downs of the market.

For God sake man, do not go to languish for financial advice, get a good certified financial planner to figure out how to meet your investment goals.

:contract:

Telling him to get investment advice is slightly different then Yi telling him how to invest.   ;)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 06:07:21 PM
 :huh: I'm agreeing with you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 21, 2021, 06:14:40 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 06:07:21 PM
:huh: I'm agreeing with you.

I am terrible at interpreting smiles, my apologies.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 07:54:29 PM
Article in The Economist about explosion in option trading.  Talks about the retail investors chasing long odds thing I mentioned.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 08:56:42 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 07:54:29 PM
Article in The Economist about explosion in option trading.  Talks about the retail investors chasing long odds thing I mentioned.

It's the Reddit WallStreetBets/Boredom Markets effect. Lots of people glommed onto WSB over the last two years (me included) and the gush of loss/gain excitement due to the magnifying effect of options seems to have led far, far too many people stuck in lockdown to thinking they can make it rich with just one lucky call option.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 09:12:21 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 08:56:42 PM
It's the Reddit WallStreetBets/Boredom Markets effect. Lots of people glommed onto WSB over the last two years (me included) and the gush of loss/gain excitement due to the magnifying effect of options seems to have led far, far too many people stuck in lockdown to thinking they can make it rich with just one lucky call option.

Yup.  But I think you were wrong when you said options in general are bad news and best to stay away.  I'm inclined to agree when it's limited to the buy side, but as I mentioned earlier these yahoos are bidding up premiums and that can be taken advantage of on the sell side.

I've never visited but I'll bet not many folks on Reddit are cackling about selling covered calls.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 21, 2021, 09:53:09 PM
My note about options should be clarified to be referring to buying any of them, for the most part. I think there are probably better uses of your money than writing covered calls, but you're not wrong about the premiums getting bid up because of the retard sector and if you're making money there, you're not doing anything wrong.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 10:21:06 PM
FYI I'm making about $500/week writing covered calls against 75 grand in capital.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 10:45:31 PM
edit: calls and puts
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 07:24:24 AM
Part of my "cash-out" (and that's not the full cash-out that Yi suggested...IRA's would still stay, just a major shift to more conservative/stable investments as BB mentioned) apprehension, is that it feels like we're big into bubble territory.  The market values compared to Covid-effects just looks way too out of whack.  It's usually justified with post-Covid optimism...but that doesn't make a lot of sense...especially if the market can be considered overvalued even if the pandemic had never happened.

It just seems like there is bound to a be a fairly long, delayed economic effect where reality will hit and the markets will get pummeled for several months to a couple years, even if the "real" economy (jobs, etc.) is back on an upswing as Covid is more under control.  And as Habs suggested, trying to bet on the timing of when the peak is/will be, and when a slide might hit, is problematic.

Or...my thinking is all wrong.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 22, 2021, 10:40:31 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2021, 10:21:06 PM
FYI I'm making about $500/week writing covered calls against 75 grand in capital.

:cheers: Damn good returns, I just wonder when that gravy train will end. As long as you're playing it safe (covered only), then I can't complain too much.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2021, 05:08:39 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 22, 2021, 10:40:31 AM
:cheers: Damn good returns, I just wonder when that gravy train will end. As long as you're playing it safe (covered only), then I can't complain too much.

The gravy train ends when either a) the fanbois get tired of Tesla (which will be never) or b) the price rises so high selling a put =<$750 doesn't make any money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2021, 05:19:43 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 07:24:24 AM
Part of my "cash-out" (and that's not the full cash-out that Yi suggested...IRA's would still stay, just a major shift to more conservative/stable investments as BB mentioned) apprehension, is that it feels like we're big into bubble territory.  The market values compared to Covid-effects just looks way too out of whack.  It's usually justified with post-Covid optimism...but that doesn't make a lot of sense...especially if the market can be considered overvalued even if the pandemic had never happened.

It just seems like there is bound to a be a fairly long, delayed economic effect where reality will hit and the markets will get pummeled for several months to a couple years, even if the "real" economy (jobs, etc.) is back on an upswing as Covid is more under control.  And as Habs suggested, trying to bet on the timing of when the peak is/will be, and when a slide might hit, is problematic.

Or...my thinking is all wrong.

I heard one guy on CNBC say the 500 is 8.5% overvalued.  I've seen a bunch of clips that follow that up by saying it's sectoral, concentrated in tech.

If you sell covered calls against your tech stocks, you will generate cash, and the possibility of assignment, which would give you a bankroll with which to buy the upcoming dip, and trim your positions.

I don't see any reason that the correction would be the start of a prolonged slump, unless inflation (then interest rates) start to slump.

edit: rise, not slump
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 22, 2021, 05:56:41 PM
I think the days of inflation are past us for the foreseeable future.  I think the way inflation manifests itself is through asset price bubbles.  The down times in the market will not be coming from interest rate increases, but rather from credit crunch.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 23, 2021, 03:45:07 AM
Has anyone been following this game stop insanity going on?

Someday ill understand all this short and put and other stuff. For now it seems bizzare but interesting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 04:24:16 AM
That day is today!!!

A call is the option to buy a stock at an pre-agreed price.  A put is an option to sell a stock at a pre-agreed price

Short and long are antonyms.  Long means you benefit by a price increase.  Short means you benefit by a price decrease.  If you own shares, you are long that stock.

The owner of a call option benefits when the price rises, the are also long that stock.  The owner of a put option benefits when the price decreases, they are short that stock.

A short seller is someone who borrows someone else's stock, paying a daily premium, and sells it.  Their hope is the price will fall, and they can repurchase the stock (to return to the lender) more cheaply than they bought it.  A short seller is short the stock, duh.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 23, 2021, 11:44:14 AM
Thanks.
It's more the How's and whys that particularly confuse.
If you can get an agreement to pay the price of today in a month, gambling the price will rise, then why not just buy it today and sell it in a month?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 05:05:21 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 23, 2021, 11:44:14 AM
Thanks.
It's more the How's and whys that particularly confuse.
If you can get an agreement to pay the price of today in a month, gambling the price will rise, then why not just buy it today and sell it in a month?

Because options are much cheaper than shares, and because you can sell the option before it expires for potentially massive profit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 09:00:59 PM
Here's a concrete example.  I recently sold one Tesla call option with a January 8 expiry at a "strike price" of $750 for $3.54 per share.  VERY IMPORTANT to keep in mind that each option contract covers 100 shares.  So the buyer paid me $354, and he paid his broker a commission for executing the option.  My broker charges 65 cents per option.  I paid my broker 65 cents as well to execute my sell order.

That was the time Tesla's share rose c. $200 in two weeks.  Tesla *met* (not surpassed, just met) its announced target for delivering cars in 2020, and the share price rose $100.  Then the idiots stormed the Capitol, and the price rose another $100 per share.

That call option I had sold was now trading for something like $106 per share.  Which makes sense, because the right to buy a share at $750 is worth that when the stock is trading at $856.

106X100=10,600.  So the buyer of that call made a nice pile of loot in two weeks for an outlay of $354.

Please keep in mind no one is suggesting you buy calls in hopes of striking it rich overnight.  The consensus here is that they are a sucker's bet.  But you asked about the motivation, and the motivation is fast big money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 24, 2021, 12:32:34 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 22, 2021, 07:24:24 AM
Part of my "cash-out" (and that's not the full cash-out that Yi suggested...IRA's would still stay, just a major shift to more conservative/stable investments as BB mentioned) apprehension, is that it feels like we're big into bubble territory.  The market values compared to Covid-effects just looks way too out of whack.  It's usually justified with post-Covid optimism...but that doesn't make a lot of sense...especially if the market can be considered overvalued even if the pandemic had never happened.

It just seems like there is bound to a be a fairly long, delayed economic effect where reality will hit and the markets will get pummeled for several months to a couple years, even if the "real" economy (jobs, etc.) is back on an upswing as Covid is more under control.  And as Habs suggested, trying to bet on the timing of when the peak is/will be, and when a slide might hit, is problematic.

Or...my thinking is all wrong.

Habs is wise.  One of the reasons you should get some good professional advice, is it is too easy to get sucked along with people talking about how well they are doing in very short time increments (you will rarely hear about the times they got burned making short term bets) when you are really investing for long term goals.  One thing to think about is the analysis that came out a couple of weeks ago that looked at long term trends which concluded that one would have to be extraordinarily lucky and make the correct judgment in a few moments in time when it really mattered for market timing to work out better in the long run.

Despite all the best advice I got from they guy who does my investments, I held back a bunch of cash for way too long thinking the market would crash.  Thankfully I did not sell anything (he put his foot down on that) I just didnt invest new money.  I missed a lot of gains because of that.  The bit of silver lining is I had that cash on hand when the COVID crash occurred and so it was not a total loss, but I would have been better of just investing regularly earlier.

As BB suggested, get good advice about how invest at your age and stage.  Don't worry about what the Yi's of the world are doing.  If you want to take part in placing short term bets, then you might do what I do and set aside some play money that you would otherwise blow on other things.  It is fun to play around with the market.  But that is as far as it goes for me.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 24, 2021, 01:23:53 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 24, 2021, 12:32:34 PM
As BB suggested, get good advice about how invest at your age and stage.  Don't worry about what the Yi's of the world are doing.  If you want to take part in placing short term bets, then you might do what I do and set aside some play money that you would otherwise blow on other things.  It is fun to play around with the market.  But that is as far as it goes for me.

This exactly. I have the gambling gene in me, and so don't follow my own advice for literally every dollar I have. But I fully recognize that setting aside a portion of my money for gambling/entertainment is entirely separated from my goal of maximizing my returns without playing games. I strongly urge following CC's steps--get with a CFP ASAP and work out a proper plan to take all the controllable stress out of the equation, then come up with a (relatively small) portion of your overall investments to play games with if you really, really want to.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 04:01:14 AM
The safest way to invest in the stock market for someone not very interested would be to find a free index fund following some big local stock index. The stock market has always gone up over time and it's reasonable to assume that that will continue and an index fund makes your savings follow that increase. A local index fund takes away any currency effects.

Then, when one approaches the time to use the money one takes out 10% for every year remaining. With ten years to time of use take out 10% and so on. This to mitigate volatility at the end of the savings period.

I use this tactic, but instead of an index fund I put my savings in a very cheap investment company index fund, betting that it will surpass index, which it has so far.

And I play with some small percentage of the total savings. Those investments have generally been my best investments, especially Paradox and Apple, but they are still only a small part of the total.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 25, 2021, 09:58:47 AM
I think TSLA is easily about 60-65% of my Roth IRA value right now...but that wasn't intended.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 25, 2021, 10:00:10 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on January 15, 2021, 11:21:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 14, 2021, 08:18:04 PM
Did you pull the trigger Tonto, or did Gloomy Guller scare you off?
But, to test the waters, I did trade a covered call from that account on AAPL at an absurd 150/share (as I am not really that inclined to unload it) that expires in a couple weeks.  That one is worth a couple hundred bucks.

The market is trying hard to prove me wrong.  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 25, 2021, 10:02:08 AM
Quote from: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 04:01:14 AM
The stock market has always gone up over time and it's reasonable to assume that that will continue and an index fund makes your savings follow that increase.
I always get scared when I read something like this.  Anything that is thought of to always go up over time will be eventually bid up to the point where it may not always go up over time going forward.  Instead it may be bid up to the 1990 point of this graph: https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 25, 2021, 10:11:39 AM
Palantir on another rampage upward today. Before close I will sell half my shares. It will cover my dentistry costs.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 10:26:30 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 25, 2021, 10:02:08 AM
Quote from: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 04:01:14 AM
The stock market has always gone up over time and it's reasonable to assume that that will continue and an index fund makes your savings follow that increase.
I always get scared when I read something like this.  Anything that is thought of to always go up over time will be eventually bid up to the point where it may not always go up over time going forward.  Instead it may be bid up to the 1990 point of this graph: https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data.

Yes, that is a possibility. 2001-2007 the Swedish stock market halved. Now it's bounced back and more. I put all my pension savings in the stock market, but I also invest in other stuff, my house, my farm, my career and so on. If my stock market investment fails I will retire five years later and I won't buy a new car upon retirement. Quite serious, but not lose-my-house-serious. I recommend no-one to put their economical security on the line in the stock market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 11:10:42 AM
Also, during my saving years, the last 20 years, Nikkei has doubled. Of course, it has almost tripled the last ten years, but anyway.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 25, 2021, 12:04:02 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2021, 09:00:59 PM
Here's a concrete example.  I recently sold one Tesla call option with a January 8 expiry at a "strike price" of $750 for $3.54 per share.  VERY IMPORTANT to keep in mind that each option contract covers 100 shares.  So the buyer paid me $354, and he paid his broker a commission for executing the option.  My broker charges 65 cents per option.  I paid my broker 65 cents as well to execute my sell order.

That was the time Tesla's share rose c. $200 in two weeks.  Tesla *met* (not surpassed, just met) its announced target for delivering cars in 2020, and the share price rose $100.  Then the idiots stormed the Capitol, and the price rose another $100 per share.

That call option I had sold was now trading for something like $106 per share.  Which makes sense, because the right to buy a share at $750 is worth that when the stock is trading at $856.

106X100=10,600.  So the buyer of that call made a nice pile of loot in two weeks for an outlay of $354.
So options cost a lot less than actually buying the stock for a price would?
You buy an option of $10 for 50 cents and its effectively a gamble on the stock price rising by more than 50 cents so there value in using it to buy stocks/people will want to buy it so they can buy stocks?

Quote

Please keep in mind no one is suggesting you buy calls in hopes of striking it rich overnight.  The consensus here is that they are a sucker's bet.  But you asked about the motivation, and the motivation is fast big money.
No intention of gambling serious money here rest assured :p
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 25, 2021, 12:46:57 PM
Quote from: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 11:10:42 AM
Also, during my saving years, the last 20 years, Nikkei has doubled. Of course, it has almost tripled the last ten years, but anyway.
The point is that "in the long run the stock market always goes up" hasn't been the case for people who invested in Nikkei in 1990.  Thirty years later they're still in the hole.  The reason they're in the hole is because shortly before 1990 too many people believed that in the long run the stock market would always go up, and invested accordingly.

The age we're living in now may not be representative.  I believe that there are three important factors that are all inflating the stock markets everywhere in a way that's a one-time boost:  the increasing popularity of investing in the stock market, the increasing wealth inequality making more funds available for investment/speculation because there is nothing else to do with it, and the central bank policy encouraging asset bubbles.  If you got in the market ahead of all these drivers, then you feel smart, but there is no guarantee we're not right now in the 1990 Nikkei territory, when no one who puts their money in the stock market now will ever be made whole again in their lifetime.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 25, 2021, 12:49:21 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 25, 2021, 12:46:57 PM
Quote from: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 11:10:42 AM
Also, during my saving years, the last 20 years, Nikkei has doubled. Of course, it has almost tripled the last ten years, but anyway.
The point is that "in the long run the stock market always goes up" hasn't been the case for people who invested in Nikkei in 1990.  Thirty years later they're still in the hole.  The reason they're in the hole is because shortly before 1990 too many people believed that in the long run the stock market would always go up, and invested accordingly.

The age we're living in now may not be representative.  I believe that there are three important factors that are all inflating the stock markets everywhere in a way that's a one-time boost:  the increasing popularity of investing in the stock market, the increasing wealth inequality making more funds available for investment/speculation because there is nothing else to do with it, and the central bank policy encouraging asset bubbles.  If you got in the market ahead of all these drivers, then you feel smart, but there is no guarantee we're not right now in the 1990 Nikkei territory, when no one who puts their money in the stock market now will ever be made whole again in their lifetime.

The people who invested in Japanese stocks in 1935 are also still in the hole. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 25, 2021, 12:55:12 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 25, 2021, 12:46:57 PM
Quote from: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 11:10:42 AM
Also, during my saving years, the last 20 years, Nikkei has doubled. Of course, it has almost tripled the last ten years, but anyway.
The point is that "in the long run the stock market always goes up" hasn't been the case for people who invested in Nikkei in 1990.  Thirty years later they're still in the hole.  The reason they're in the hole is because shortly before 1990 too many people believed that in the long run the stock market would always go up, and invested accordingly.

The age we're living in now may not be representative.  I believe that there are three important factors that are all inflating the stock markets everywhere in a way that's a one-time boost:  the increasing popularity of investing in the stock market, the increasing wealth inequality making more funds available for investment/speculation because there is nothing else to do with it, and the central bank policy encouraging asset bubbles.  If you got in the market ahead of all these drivers, then you feel smart, but there is no guarantee we're not right now in the 1990 Nikkei territory, when no one who puts their money in the stock market now will ever be made whole again in their lifetime.
Not directly stock market related, but I am seeing a lot of signs in the UK at least that we're on a similar development path as Japan, only a few decades behind the curve. Would be fascinating and scary to see things map that closely...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 25, 2021, 01:02:54 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 25, 2021, 12:46:57 PM
Quote from: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 11:10:42 AM
Also, during my saving years, the last 20 years, Nikkei has doubled. Of course, it has almost tripled the last ten years, but anyway.
The point is that "in the long run the stock market always goes up" hasn't been the case for people who invested in Nikkei in 1990.  Thirty years later they're still in the hole.  The reason they're in the hole is because shortly before 1990 too many people believed that in the long run the stock market would always go up, and invested accordingly.

The age we're living in now may not be representative.  I believe that there are three important factors that are all inflating the stock markets everywhere in a way that's a one-time boost:  the increasing popularity of investing in the stock market, the increasing wealth inequality making more funds available for investment/speculation because there is nothing else to do with it, and the central bank policy encouraging asset bubbles.  If you got in the market ahead of all these drivers, then you feel smart, but there is no guarantee we're not right now in the 1990 Nikkei territory, when no one who puts their money in the stock market now will ever be made whole again in their lifetime.

My mother in law was an early convert to the Asian market. She did very well with her meagre savings during the 80s going all Japan all the time.   I first met her in the late 80s, and suggested she see a professional advisor about retirement planning.  He got them diversified into a number of things.  Just in time....
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 25, 2021, 01:33:37 PM
Anyone looking for a fun encapsulation of the frenzy around GameStop stock (GME) and a really savvy explanation of the technicals around options (including plain-English descriptions of "The Greeks") need go no further than Matt Levine's column today, which is great reading:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-25/the-game-never-stops
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 02:04:58 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 25, 2021, 12:46:57 PM
Quote from: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 11:10:42 AM
Also, during my saving years, the last 20 years, Nikkei has doubled. Of course, it has almost tripled the last ten years, but anyway.
The point is that "in the long run the stock market always goes up" hasn't been the case for people who invested in Nikkei in 1990.  Thirty years later they're still in the hole.  The reason they're in the hole is because shortly before 1990 too many people believed that in the long run the stock market would always go up, and invested accordingly.

The age we're living in now may not be representative.  I believe that there are three important factors that are all inflating the stock markets everywhere in a way that's a one-time boost:  the increasing popularity of investing in the stock market, the increasing wealth inequality making more funds available for investment/speculation because there is nothing else to do with it, and the central bank policy encouraging asset bubbles.  If you got in the market ahead of all these drivers, then you feel smart, but there is no guarantee we're not right now in the 1990 Nikkei territory, when no one who puts their money in the stock market now will ever be made whole again in their lifetime.

I don't think I mentioned it, but I suggest a monthly saving. Or a weekly. The ones investing monthly between 1980 and 2000 are ahead.

But, what do you suggest as investment option for the uninformed and uninterested?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 25, 2021, 02:07:25 PM
I'm probably the most boring person ever...I typically save/invest over 50-60% of my monthly income.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 25, 2021, 02:14:04 PM
Quote from: Threviel on January 25, 2021, 02:04:58 PM
But, what do you suggest as investment option for the uninformed and uninterested?
The best I could think of for myself was just to max out my contributions to 401k, and put them in low-fee target retirement funds.  I realize that my objections to how some people think about stock markets are rarely actionable, but I still think there is value in not ever letting yourself think that some investment option can't lose (unless you choose to engage to insider trading, in which case ignore what I say, and listen to your lawyer or pardon broker instead).  We've already lived through the times when real estate couldn't go down in value within our lifetimes, and even though it's inflated again, that belief still burned some people to a crisp.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 25, 2021, 02:30:51 PM
As a financial professional, I can say that DG's personal decision of choosing a low-fee, target-date retirement fund is absolutely the best for the uninterested, ignorant investor who just wants to make sure their retirement nest-egg is going to grow over the long-term and wants basically no interaction with it other than "money go in now, more money come out later".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2021, 07:19:43 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 25, 2021, 12:04:02 PM
So options cost a lot less than actually buying the stock for a price would?

Yes.  For the $354 cost of that call the buyer could have bought a little over half a share.

QuoteYou buy an option of $10 for 50 cents and its effectively a gamble on the stock price rising by more than 50 cents so there value in using it to buy stocks/people will want to buy it so they can buy stocks?

I'm a little confused by this question.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 25, 2021, 07:42:08 PM
I couldn't parse it either.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 25, 2021, 07:56:11 PM
I think he is getting confused with the value of the option and the strike price of the option?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2021, 10:21:37 PM
Another important caveat Squeeze: I've read about different kinds of options, American style and European style.  They differ in that with the American style the buyer can exercise the right to buy at any point up to expiration.  With European style the right to buy is exercised automatically at close of market on the expiration date.

You being in You Kay, I don't know which type is available to you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 26, 2021, 09:36:23 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2021, 07:19:43 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 25, 2021, 12:04:02 PM
So options cost a lot less than actually buying the stock for a price would?

Yes.  For the $354 cost of that call the buyer could have bought a little over half a share.

QuoteYou buy an option of $10 for 50 cents and its effectively a gamble on the stock price rising by more than 50 cents so there value in using it to buy stocks/people will want to buy it so they can buy stocks?

I'm a little confused by this question.  :hmm:

I mean; stock price is $10 and you buy an option to buy for $10 at 50 cents.
Thats essentially a gamble that in the future, the stock price will be more than $10.50, as thats the only circumstance in which you'd be making money there.
Right?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2021, 06:19:45 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 26, 2021, 09:36:23 AM
I mean; stock price is $10 and you buy an option to buy for $10 at 50 cents.
Thats essentially a gamble that in the future, the stock price will be more than $10.50, as thats the only circumstance in which you'd be making money there.
Right?

Not quite.  First, you can buy a call at virtually any price, it doesn't have to be the market price of the stock at the time you buy the option.  In my Tesla example, the stock was trading at $660/share when I sold the call at a strike price of $750.  That call was a bet the price would rise to $750.

The second thing you have to understand is that options include a time value.  Even if the market price has not yet reached the strike price of the option, the price of the option will rise because of the *possibility* it will rise before the option expires.  So if on day one of my Tesla option the price had risen from $660 to $680, the cost of the option would have risen too, because even though it was still not "in the money," there was an increased chance it would be in the money in the 12 or so trading days left before it expired.  As the days tick off, that time value will shrink because there are fewer days left in which the market price can change.  At the very end of the option period the option price will get nearer and nearer to the difference between the market price and the strike price because the time value is approaching zero.  Back to my Tesla example, toward market close on the Friday when the contract expired the price of the option was $106, which was very close to the difference between the strike price ($750) and the market price ($856).

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 26, 2021, 06:22:17 PM
In other words Tyr, the option itself is traded and while the value of the option may be influenced by the stock price is it just the option to enter into a future contract to purchase that is being traded.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2021, 06:44:30 PM
So to use your example Squeeze, you would break even if you bought an option with a strike of $100 for a cost of 50 cents and the share price rose from $100 to $100.50, but that's only true on the last second of trading before the option expires.  You would make money if the share price rose to$100.49 on day one of the option, because the option price would now include the 49 cents *plus* it would still have several days of time value.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 26, 2021, 07:24:04 PM
GameStop opened at $88, closed at $148, is up to ~$220 after hours. Elon Musk is tweeting them and is in the WallStreetBets Discord.

Lord save us all.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 26, 2021, 08:19:02 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 26, 2021, 07:24:04 PM
GameStop opened at $88, closed at $148, is up to ~$220 after hours. Elon Musk is tweeting them and is in the WallStreetBets Discord.

Lord save us all.

This is the stock that Reddit randomly picked to troll hedge funds, right?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 26, 2021, 08:26:10 PM
Among others, such as BlackBerry, yes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 26, 2021, 08:28:56 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 26, 2021, 07:24:04 PM
GameStop opened at $88, closed at $148, is up to ~$220 after hours. Elon Musk is tweeting them and is in the WallStreetBets Discord.

Lord save us all.

I guess Mr. Musk doesn't care too much about securities regulator fines.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 26, 2021, 09:49:00 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2021, 06:19:45 PM
In my Tesla example, the stock was trading at $660/share when I sold the call at a strike price of $750.  That call was a bet the price would rise to $750.
Am I not understanding the terminology correctly?  If you sell the call, aren't you the one hoping that the stock price doesn't rise to the level when the call is excercised?  The guy who bought your call is the one praying for a well-time Musk tweet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2021, 10:03:24 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 26, 2021, 09:49:00 PM
Am I not understanding the terminology correctly?  If you sell the call, aren't you the one hoping that the stock price doesn't rise to the level when the call is excercised?  The guy who bought your call is the one praying for a well-time Musk tweet.

The person who bought the call now owns the call, and he has made an upside bet.  So the call is an upside bet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 26, 2021, 10:33:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2021, 10:03:24 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 26, 2021, 09:49:00 PM
Am I not understanding the terminology correctly?  If you sell the call, aren't you the one hoping that the stock price doesn't rise to the level when the call is excercised?  The guy who bought your call is the one praying for a well-time Musk tweet.

The person who bought the call now owns the call, and he has made an upside bet.  So the call is an upside bet.
Oh, I misread the sentence.  I originally read it as you making a bet on Tesla stock price going up by selling a call.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2021, 11:40:40 PM
I just took a look.  Gamestop puts are *not* cheap.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 26, 2021, 11:48:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2021, 11:40:40 PM
I just took a look.  Gamestop puts are *not* cheap.
What does that mean?  Those who sell puts think that the current stock price is not the new normal?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2021, 11:55:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 26, 2021, 11:48:15 PM
What does that mean?  Those who sell puts think that the current stock price is not the new normal?

It means demand is high and supply is low.  Not many people selling puts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 01:13:05 AM
Thinking about making a bet on Gamestop.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 27, 2021, 01:19:29 AM
I admit, I bought a tiny bit of gamestop for the crack. Quite entertaining to follow it all. I don't understand it all but I've seen a few explanations and it sounds convincing. Shorted above and beyond the amount of stock available with a lot of these options expiring Friday.
Lots of talk about a target of $1000 plus and some shady market manipulation business going on to force emergency sell offs.
This is a repeat of volkswagen.... Hopefully not a repeat of 2008 as a whole.
Buzz seems to be blackberry is the next one set to blow up like so. I got in on that with a fair bit more money given it wasn't too insanely priced and actually has long term viability too.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 26, 2021, 06:44:30 PM
So to use your example Squeeze, you would break even if you bought an option with a strike of $100 for a cost of 50 cents and the share price rose from $100 to $100.50, but that's only true on the last second of trading before the option expires.  You would make money if the share price rose to$100.49 on day one of the option, because the option price would now include the 49 cents *plus* it would still have several days of time value.

Thanks. Makes sense. So multi layered 3d gambles. I had thought these could only be cashed in on the day they mature? Or that's just shorts?
Way beyond me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on January 27, 2021, 01:20:58 AM
Gamestop? The brick and mortar video game store?  :huh:

Does that business have a bright future I am not aware of?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 27, 2021, 01:25:40 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 27, 2021, 01:20:58 AM
Gamestop? The brick and mortar video game store?  :huh:

Does that business have a bright future I am not aware of?
Guy who did well with a company called chewy (I've never heard of it) bought a large chunk and got involved with its management.
This chewy company successfully competes against amazon for pet food.
Buzz is with the brand recognition gamestop could manage the same and get back into decent profit.... Albeit nothing to represent whats going on here.
Mostly its that some smart unemployed guy trawled stocks and discovered the sheer amount of short sells on it.
It is worth a look at some of the main threads on wall street bets writing this all up. Just need to squint a bit past all the 🚀
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 01:26:29 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 27, 2021, 01:19:29 AM
Thanks. Makes sense. So multi layered 3d gambles. I had thought these could only be cashed in on the day they mature? Or that's just shorts?
Way beyond me.

There's no financial instrument called a short.  Short is an adjective which describes one's position in relation price rises and falls.

There are calls and puts.  Calls and puts can be "sold to close" at any time up to expiration and can be exercised at any time up to expiration.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 01:27:39 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 27, 2021, 01:20:58 AM
Gamestop? The brick and mortar video game store?  :huh:

Does that business have a bright future I am not aware of?

What I saw on CNBC is that it's still the same shitty mall store losing hundreds of millions a year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 01:39:53 AM
So maybe it makes sense that their stock goes up when they can't operate due to Covid.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on January 27, 2021, 01:51:02 AM
I thought it's just price manipulation for the LULZ
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:09:10 AM
I don't see what the end game.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 03:25:06 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:09:10 AM
I don't see what the end game.
You pump up the price for the shares, and then sell them to those who must buy them at any price to cover their short position?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:33:04 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 03:25:06 AM
You pump up the price for the shares, and then sell them to those who must buy them at any price to cover their short position?

Except there's no deadline on a short sale.  You can run one indefinitely, as long as you pay the interest (which is very low based on my shares that have been borrowed) and you post the collateral.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 27, 2021, 09:58:30 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 27, 2021, 01:20:58 AM
Gamestop? The brick and mortar video game store?  :huh:

Does that business have a bright future I am not aware of?

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 27, 2021, 09:59:09 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:09:10 AM
I don't see what the end game.

There is none. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 27, 2021, 10:06:38 AM
Elon Musk tweeted on the Gamestop thing and it shot up :lol:
It is said by random internet commenters that the guy being attacked by this assault on shorts has been shorting tesla for years so Musk is really enjoying it.

QuoteExcept there's no deadline on a short sale.  You can run one indefinitely, as long as you pay the interest (which is very low based on my shares that have been borrowed) and you post the collateral.
Didn't you explain before about expiry et al?
Again, this isn't something I know anything about, but all I've read suggests a bazillion (or more than there is existing stock) short options expiring on Friday. Its basically the same sort of thing as Volkswagen in 2008.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 12:03:46 PM
I am half-convinced this madness is partly because of the blanket stimulus checks being spent by young people to do crazy bets.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 12:05:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:33:04 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 03:25:06 AM
You pump up the price for the shares, and then sell them to those who must buy them at any price to cover their short position?

Except there's no deadline on a short sale.  You can run one indefinitely, as long as you pay the interest (which is very low based on my shares that have been borrowed) and you post the collateral.
I think there can be.  Someone can ask for their stock back, in which case you have to procure it somewhere else in order to have something to give back.  I think that's how the VW squeeze worked, the short sellers had to buy the stock at any price because they needed to have it right that moment no matter what.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 27, 2021, 12:08:39 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 12:05:07 PM
I think there can be.  Someone can ask for their stock back, in which case you have to procure it somewhere else in order to have something to give back.  I think that's how the VW squeeze worked, the short sellers had to buy the stock at any price because they needed to have it right that moment no matter what.
And presumably it's something that you're holding on your book anyway that you need to hold capital against? So at some point you either need to sell it or close it if it reaches a certain point, no?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 12:11:32 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 27, 2021, 12:08:39 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 12:05:07 PM
I think there can be.  Someone can ask for their stock back, in which case you have to procure it somewhere else in order to have something to give back.  I think that's how the VW squeeze worked, the short sellers had to buy the stock at any price because they needed to have it right that moment no matter what.
And presumably it's something that you're holding on your book anyway that you need to hold capital against? So at some point you either need to sell it or close it if it reaches a certain point, no?
I imagine collateral requirements get updated from time to time.  If the property I borrowed increases tenfold in price, the collateral should move accordingly.  That said, I find it so hard to wrap my head around stock short selling mechanics, in every other facet of life it's a dick move to sell something you borrowed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 27, 2021, 12:17:58 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 12:11:32 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 27, 2021, 12:08:39 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 12:05:07 PM
I think there can be.  Someone can ask for their stock back, in which case you have to procure it somewhere else in order to have something to give back.  I think that's how the VW squeeze worked, the short sellers had to buy the stock at any price because they needed to have it right that moment no matter what.
And presumably it's something that you're holding on your book anyway that you need to hold capital against? So at some point you either need to sell it or close it if it reaches a certain point, no?
I imagine collateral requirements get updated from time to time.  If the property I borrowed increases tenfold in price, the collateral should move accordingly.  That said, I find it so hard to wrap my head around stock short selling mechanics, in every other facet of life it's a dick move to sell something you borrowed.
Fixed.



Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 12:03:46 PM
I am half-convinced this madness is partly because of the blanket stimulus checks being spent by young people to do crazy bets.


Yes. From comments I've seen being bored at home with nothing to do combined with this does seem to have prompted a lot of them into it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 12:32:50 PM
I think this reinforces my view that asset bubbles form because people who have extra money have nothing to do with that money.  You don't have inflation, because people with extra money have all the goods they need and don't want any more, or because of Covid they can't blow it in restaurants or such.  That money sits there and burns a hole in people's pockets, and they decide to gamble with it.  That's probably why the stock market shot up after early shock, despite the economic fundamentals being highly questionable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 27, 2021, 01:37:04 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 12:03:46 PM
I am half-convinced this madness is partly because of the blanket stimulus checks being spent by young people to do crazy bets.

That's a good portion of the "Boredom Markets Hypothesis" that Matt Levine subscribes to, yes.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 27, 2021, 01:37:59 PM
The whole thing has a theme song now:

https://youtu.be/rejpDqQUcV0
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 01:59:01 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 27, 2021, 10:06:38 AM
Didn't you explain before about expiry et al?
Again, this isn't something I know anything about, but all I've read suggests a bazillion (or more than there is existing stock) short options expiring on Friday. Its basically the same sort of thing as Volkswagen in 2008.

Call and put options expire.  A short sale is not an option.

I think you and DGuller are confusing a "short squeeze" with the ability of the lender to call back the stock at will.  A short squeeze is any time the price rises after a short sale.  If the short seller believes the price will continue to rise, they will buy stock at the elevated price to cover their short sale and cut their losses.  This will have the effect of magnifying the price rise.

I've never heard of any ability to call back lent stock.  As I mentioned, some of my stock has been lent and I'm pretty sure I don't have the option to call it back.

I took a look at GME and decided not to buy a put.   No way to know how long this will last.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 27, 2021, 02:04:07 PM
I really enjoyed this piece:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/amberjamieson/gamestop-reddit-stock-shares

And we've seen what the internet has done to the media, to politics and I feel like maybe we're now about to see it happen to markets. This is just the first example of some of the weirdness we'll see :lol:

Edit: At the very least it feels like trading houses probably need to start to monitor bits of social media for weirdness like this and implement that into how they trade.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 02:06:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 01:59:01 PM
I've never heard of any ability to call back lent stock.  As I mentioned, some of the stock has been lent and I'm pretty sure I don't have the option to call it back.
What if you want to sell the stock that you lent?  Surely the borrower can't keep your stock until they decide to give it back.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 02:08:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 02:06:01 PM
What if you want to sell the stock that you lent?  Surely the borrower can't keep your stock until they decide to give it back.

The terms that I agreed to said I can still sell lent stock.  Don't ask me how that works.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 02:12:12 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 02:08:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 02:06:01 PM
What if you want to sell the stock that you lent?  Surely the borrower can't keep your stock until they decide to give it back.

The terms that I agreed to said I can still sell lent stock.  Don't ask me how that works.
Can I ask Habbaku?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 27, 2021, 02:12:47 PM
 :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 02:16:54 PM
No.  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 27, 2021, 02:21:14 PM
When did these side bets become a thing? seems like it gives a better strong incentive to screw with the market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 02:43:03 PM
TD Ameritrade has imposed trading restrictions on Gamestop and AMC (??).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 27, 2021, 02:49:19 PM
I'm fucking bitter. I tried shorting Gamestop (my first trade in like a dozen years) today and it said I had to call to place the order because it was hard to borrow, and there were increased fees.

So I called, stayed on hold 1 hour 20 minutes with fidelity, and the guy answered there was a problem with his machine and he was transferring me to another dude with a working machine, and then after 20 more minutes on hold I hung up.

Fuck fidelity.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 27, 2021, 02:55:12 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 02:43:03 PM
TD Ameritrade has imposed trading restrictions on Gamestop and AMC (??).

not Blackberry yet?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on January 27, 2021, 02:55:53 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 02:43:03 PM
TD Ameritrade has imposed trading restrictions on Gamestop and AMC (??).

Apparently Blackberry too.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 27, 2021, 02:58:07 PM
what's the rational for imposing restrictions? As far as i know buying stock stupidly isn't illegal. if it was there would be no market :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:03:59 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 02:58:07 PM
what's the rational for imposing restrictions? As far as i know buying stock stupidly isn't illegal. if it was there would be no market :D

One rationale would be to prevent a pump and dump.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:06:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:03:59 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 02:58:07 PM
what's the rational for imposing restrictions? As far as i know buying stock stupidly isn't illegal. if it was there would be no market :D

One rationale would be to prevent a pump and dump.

Is that illegal? Serious question.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:09:39 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:06:20 PM
Is that illegal? Serious question.

Not an expert, but I do know that market manipulation can get you in trouble with the SEC.  Like when Elon paid that fine for tweeting he was going to go private.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on January 27, 2021, 03:10:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:09:39 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:06:20 PM
Is that illegal? Serious question.

Not an expert, but I do know that market manipulation can get you in trouble with the SEC.  Like when Elon paid that fine for tweeting he was going to go private.

He's an insider to the company though.

Not sure if some average joe does it what happens.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:15:50 PM
QuoteWhat Is Pump-and-Dump?

Pump-and-dump is a scheme that attempts to boost the price of a stock through recommendations based on false, misleading or greatly exaggerated statements. The perpetrators of this scheme already have an established position in the company's stock and sell their positions after the hype has led to a higher share price. This practice is illegal based on securities law and can lead to heavy fines.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pumpanddump.asp
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 27, 2021, 03:19:45 PM
I sold my GameStop shares a few hours ago.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on January 27, 2021, 03:21:18 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 27, 2021, 03:19:45 PM
I sold my GameStop shares a few hours ago.  :sleep:

You and half their management.

All those people who were looking for ways to get off the sinking ship suddenly have enough for retirement.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:22:17 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 27, 2021, 03:19:45 PM
I sold my GameStop shares a few hours ago.  :sleep:

Pump and dump!  :ultra:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 27, 2021, 03:22:59 PM
I am: WSB Redditor.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:24:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:15:50 PM
QuoteWhat Is Pump-and-Dump?

Pump-and-dump is a scheme that attempts to boost the price of a stock through recommendations based on false, misleading or greatly exaggerated statements. The perpetrators of this scheme already have an established position in the company's stock and sell their positions after the hype has led to a higher share price. This practice is illegal based on securities law and can lead to heavy fines.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pumpanddump.asp


Hmm. I wonder if "buy it for Lolz" counts as  false, misleading or greatly exaggerated statements. Lawyers of languish, what say ye?

*edit* and thanks Yi
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 27, 2021, 03:25:23 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:24:04 PM
Hmm. I wonder if "buy it for Lolz" counts as  false, misleading or greatly exaggerated statements. Lawyers of languish, what say ye?

*edit* and thanks Yi
:lol: Yeah it seems like something different to me.

I understand the automatic market suspensions have been triggered a number of times.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:30:15 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:24:04 PM
Hmm. I wonder if "buy it for Lolz" counts as  false, misleading or greatly exaggerated statements. Lawyers of languish, what say ye?

*edit* and thanks Yi

Right.  AFAICT this is about a Reddit community agreeing amongst themselves to buy shitty stocks because they hate short sellers and want to punish them, not about a few con men talking up the brilliant business prospects of Gamestop and Blackberry to entice the gullible.

Which is why I asked what the end game is.  After you and your Reddit friends and crushed the short sellers, you're left holding stock you paid $300 for and which is virtually worthless.  Gamestop lost $4.57 per share last year.  So now what?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:31:02 PM
So I think another rationale for trading restrictions is to protect the stupids from themselves.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:31:56 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:30:15 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:24:04 PM
Hmm. I wonder if "buy it for Lolz" counts as  false, misleading or greatly exaggerated statements. Lawyers of languish, what say ye?

*edit* and thanks Yi

Right.  AFAICT this is about a Reddit community agreeing amongst themselves to buy shitty stocks because they hate short sellers and want to punish them, not about a few con men talking up the brilliant business prospects of Gamestop and Blackberry to entice the gullible.

Which is why I asked what the end game is.  After you and your Reddit friends and crushed the short sellers, you're left holding stock you paid $300 for and which is virtually worthless.  Gamestop lost $4.57 per share last year.  So now what?

i figure the person (people) who started it had gamestop stock originally and sold for a profit already. I agree, its the dumb redditers i don't get. guess a laugh is worth a few hundred bucks when you're bored


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 03:36:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:31:02 PM
So I think another rationale for trading restrictions is to protect the stupids from themselves.

Yeah I guess they don't want the hassle or tons of margin calls to deal with.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 27, 2021, 03:43:44 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:30:15 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:24:04 PM
Hmm. I wonder if "buy it for Lolz" counts as  false, misleading or greatly exaggerated statements. Lawyers of languish, what say ye?

*edit* and thanks Yi

Right.  AFAICT this is about a Reddit community agreeing amongst themselves to buy shitty stocks because they hate short sellers and want to punish them, not about a few con men talking up the brilliant business prospects of Gamestop and Blackberry to entice the gullible.

Which is why I asked what the end game is.  After you and your Reddit friends and crushed the short sellers, you're left holding stock you paid $300 for and which is virtually worthless.  Gamestop lost $4.57 per share last year.  So now what?

The idea as I gather for those who are in on it big is that the short sellers will be effectively forced by the institutions who loaned them the stock to pay huge money for actual stock as happened with volkswagen.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:47:48 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 27, 2021, 03:43:44 PM
The idea as I gather for those who are in on it big is that the short sellers will be effectively forced by the institutions who loaned them the stock to pay huge money for actual stock as happened with volkswagen.

Right.  Apart from the "forced" part, I get the logic of the short squeeze driving up the price.  But for that to work you still need willing buyers at a price above what you paid.  Where are those willing buyers?  Except for the members of the Reddit flash mob, everyone else thinks it's a $6 stock.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 27, 2021, 03:58:31 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:31:02 PM
So I think another rationale for trading restrictions is to protect the stupids from themselves.
How you do that with expanding retail platforms is difficult.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 04:04:56 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ii1U7UW-jE

Endowment manager of Akron U. thinks several short hedge funds will go bankrupt and explains today's market sell off as short funds liquidating their positions to cover.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 27, 2021, 04:47:13 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:06:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:03:59 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 02:58:07 PM
what's the rational for imposing restrictions? As far as i know buying stock stupidly isn't illegal. if it was there would be no market :D

One rationale would be to prevent a pump and dump.

Is that illegal? Serious question.

There are what are referred to as circuit breakers built into the electronic trading systems that kick in when there are dramatic fluctuations.  The main purpose is to give people who are not trading by computer algorithm have a chance to react.  Not sure it works as designed but it also works here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 05:18:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:47:48 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 27, 2021, 03:43:44 PM
The idea as I gather for those who are in on it big is that the short sellers will be effectively forced by the institutions who loaned them the stock to pay huge money for actual stock as happened with volkswagen.

Right.  Apart from the "forced" part, I get the logic of the short squeeze driving up the price.  But for that to work you still need willing buyers at a price above what you paid.  Where are those willing buyers?  Except for the members of the Reddit flash mob, everyone else thinks it's a $6 stock.
I think that's the point; you buy up on the cheap to drive up the share price, and then sell when short sellers are forced to buy the stock to close out their position.  I did this regularly in Railroad Tycoon 3.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 05:22:51 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 27, 2021, 04:47:13 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:06:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:03:59 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 02:58:07 PM
what's the rational for imposing restrictions? As far as i know buying stock stupidly isn't illegal. if it was there would be no market :D

One rationale would be to prevent a pump and dump.

Is that illegal? Serious question.

There are what are referred to as circuit breakers built into the electronic trading systems that kick in when there are dramatic fluctuations.  The main purpose is to give people who are not trading by computer algorithm have a chance to react.  Not sure it works as designed but it also works here.
I think the point of the circuit breakers is to save the market from the fluctuations themselves.  Fluctuations can feed upon themselves, like a structure that hits its resonant frequency.  For example, a sharp fall in stock prices, if reacted to quickly, can lead to people selling off said stocks to limit their losses, which on aggregate just amplifies the fluctuation and triggers further stop loss orders.  At some point the dynamic moves quicker than people can rationally react to it, so circuit breakers let people catch their breath.  That's my understanding of it anyway.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 27, 2021, 06:01:59 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 05:22:51 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 27, 2021, 04:47:13 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 03:06:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:03:59 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 02:58:07 PM
what's the rational for imposing restrictions? As far as i know buying stock stupidly isn't illegal. if it was there would be no market :D

One rationale would be to prevent a pump and dump.

Is that illegal? Serious question.

There are what are referred to as circuit breakers built into the electronic trading systems that kick in when there are dramatic fluctuations.  The main purpose is to give people who are not trading by computer algorithm have a chance to react.  Not sure it works as designed but it also works here.
I think the point of the circuit breakers is to save the market from the fluctuations themselves.  Fluctuations can feed upon themselves, like a structure that hits its resonant frequency.  For example, a sharp fall in stock prices, if reacted to quickly, can lead to people selling off said stocks to limit their losses, which on aggregate just amplifies the fluctuation and triggers further stop loss orders.  At some point the dynamic moves quicker than people can rationally react to it, so circuit breakers let people catch their breath.  That's my understanding of it anyway.

Yes, we are saying the same thing. They kick in with individual stocks as well as the market as a whole (which is much more rare).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 27, 2021, 06:05:18 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 04:04:56 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ii1U7UW-jE

Endowment manager of Akron U. thinks several short hedge funds will go bankrupt and explains today's market sell off as short funds liquidating their positions to cover.

I don't buy that guys on reddit are doing this. There is real money behind it.

When the price was approaching $150 a share, I texted a friend, "I want to short this but I'm worried someone like Elon Musk is driving it" -- that was a few hours before his tweet. He is very public about hating short sellers and he could poor billions into a shit company like Gamestop and wipe out the shorts.

But at $350 a share there is a limit to how high he can drive it. I was trying to use a bit under 1/3 of my account as a short--the problem with taking this to $1,050 a share (where I'd start to run into problems with margin calls) is that the valuation becomes $70+ billion (I'm assuming the stock base has been expanding), and that gets to be too pricy even for him.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 06:18:34 PM
At some point it becomes an infinite leveling game.  Maybe people on reddit didn't have the power to do the short squeeze, but if others believed they did, or believed that others believed they did, and so on to infinity, then they would start trying to get ahead of the game.  If the market believed that a single homeless guy living under an overpass could move the market with one word, then that single former options trader would be able to move the market with one word.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 27, 2021, 06:39:47 PM
But there isn't a current short squeeze (which is distinct from individual shorts getting squeezed, which is definitely happening). The stock is so shorted there is nothing available to short. Every available share is shorted. That is true now and it will be true so long as the price remains this high.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 27, 2021, 06:42:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 03:47:48 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 27, 2021, 03:43:44 PM
The idea as I gather for those who are in on it big is that the short sellers will be effectively forced by the institutions who loaned them the stock to pay huge money for actual stock as happened with volkswagen.

Right.  Apart from the "forced" part, I get the logic of the short squeeze driving up the price.  But for that to work you still need willing buyers at a price above what you paid.  Where are those willing buyers?  Except for the members of the Reddit flash mob, everyone else thinks it's a $6 stock.
For some it'll be YOLO with, say, $1,000 - join in, internet community, watch a hedgie go bust. I can think of worse ways to spend time in a pandemic.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 06:56:27 PM
Apparently Reddit has shut down the Wallstreetbets forum.
Big investors get bailouts for recklessness, individuals get silenced.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 27, 2021, 06:59:56 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 06:56:27 PM
Apparently Reddit has shut down the Wallstreetbets forum.
Big investors get bailouts for recklessness, individuals get silenced.

I feel hard to feel all the people are being silenced with this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 27, 2021, 07:05:44 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 06:56:27 PM
Apparently Reddit has shut down the Wallstreetbets forum.
Big investors get bailouts for recklessness, individuals get silenced.
Yeah. Apparently it's not been shut down for anything to do with this. It's been shut down for "hate speech".

It took them four plus years to have a look at what was going on in TheDonald <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 27, 2021, 07:30:34 PM
That forum wasn't costing rich guys money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 27, 2021, 07:31:40 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 06:56:27 PM
Apparently Reddit has shut down the Wallstreetbets forum.
Big investors get bailouts for recklessness, individuals get silenced.

It got set private. It's been set private before. WSB will rise again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 07:59:57 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 06:56:27 PM
Big investors get bailouts for recklessness

Please elaborate.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 08:02:46 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 07:59:57 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 06:56:27 PM
Big investors get bailouts for recklessness

Please elaborate.

Aint gonna give you a brief on the 2008 crisis mate you will need to do your own reading up on that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 08:09:30 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 08:02:46 PM
Aint gonna give you a brief on the 2008 crisis mate you will need to do your own reading up on that.

I guess you didn't consider the possibility I didn't know what you were talking about.  I saw something similar in a youtube title and figured some short hedge funds had been bailed out.

Of course calling TARP a bailout of "big investors" is bullshit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zoupa on January 27, 2021, 08:11:56 PM
 :bleeding:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 08:20:01 PM
Tesla misses on earnings report, stock down from 880 to 820 after hours.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 27, 2021, 08:26:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 08:09:30 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 08:02:46 PM
Aint gonna give you a brief on the 2008 crisis mate you will need to do your own reading up on that.

I guess you didn't consider the possibility I didn't know what you were talking about.  I saw something similar in a youtube title and figured some short hedge funds had been bailed out.

Of course calling TARP a bailout of "big investors" is bullshit.

What would you classify it as?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 08:28:42 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 08:26:48 PM
What would you classify it as?

Propping up the banking system (and the auto industry later).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 27, 2021, 08:32:51 PM
Maybe I'm misremembering, or misunderstanding , but didn't most of the money go to investment banks? Wouldn't that be classified as "big investors"?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 08:38:18 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 08:32:51 PM
Maybe I'm misremembering, or misunderstanding , but didn't most of the money go to investment banks? Wouldn't that be classified as "big investors"?

When I read "big investors" I think individuals.  Does the statement work in regards to big financial institutions?  I need to think about it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 27, 2021, 10:33:31 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 08:38:18 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 08:32:51 PM
Maybe I'm misremembering, or misunderstanding , but didn't most of the money go to investment banks? Wouldn't that be classified as "big investors"?

When I read "big investors" I think individuals.  Does the statement work in regards to big financial institutions?  I need to think about it.

Odd to disassociate big investor from the big institutional investors.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 27, 2021, 10:41:30 PM
WSB is public again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 11:03:10 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 27, 2021, 08:32:51 PM
Maybe I'm misremembering, or misunderstanding , but didn't most of the money go to investment banks? Wouldn't that be classified as "big investors"?

Well, some of them were big (and some were small and some were medium sized) and some of them did engage in proprietary trading.  But they weren't the biggest investors.  Those would be pension funds, insurance companies, university endowments, mutual funds, and hedge funds.  And proprietary trading was a small part of those banks' business.

So no, I don't think it's fair to say "big investors got bailed out."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 11:06:20 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HYBo5teFTU

Bottom of the "hedge funds got bailed out" story.  Melvin Capital, which shorted Gamestop, got an "infusion" of three billion from two other hedge funds.  No details on whether that's a loan, or equity, or what.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 11:10:00 PM
Is there any fundamental reason why anyone would short sell a stock?  There must be some, because some very smart people are doing it, but it sounds like such a dangerous hassle.  Can't you just buy a put or sell a call if you are bearish on the stock?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 11:21:49 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 11:10:00 PM
Is there any fundamental reason why anyone would short sell a stock?  There must be some, because some very smart people are doing it, but it sounds like such a dangerous hassle.  Can't you just buy a put or sell a call if you are bearish on the stock?

Dunno.

You have leave to ask Habbaku.  :pope:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 11:54:49 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOLn07bCSEQ

Ryan Cohen (co-founder of Chewy), Donald Foss (ex-CEO of dodgy car loan company), and Michael Burry (from The Big Short), all invested big in Game Stop and made a bunch of dough.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on January 28, 2021, 12:05:15 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 11:54:49 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOLn07bCSEQ

Ryan Cohen (co-founder of Chewy), Donald Foss (ex-CEO of dodgy car loan company), and Michael Burry (from The Big Short), all invested big in Game Stop and made a bunch of dough.

I saw an interesting a twitter thread (https://twitter.com/toxic/status/1353890766800621569) that lays out how "the little guys vs big wall street" narrative is a bit off.

QuoteStep 0: Citadel pays Robinhood for order flow. Citadel gets to see RH's orders a few milliseconds before they're filled. Citadel may choose to front-run some of those trades.

Step 1: RH's customers and WallStreetBets start manipulating $GME. This is happening in the open.

Officially, they're manipulating $GME (and $BB and $KOSS) because these low-value stocks are being very heavily shorted, and if something moves the value of the stock up (like, tens of thousands of retail investors acting in near unison), those short-sellers may be forced to sell

...to cover their borrowed shares. If most shares are held by retail investors who won't sell, the price will skyrocket (supply/demand) until someone does. The bear hedge funds and such will still have to buy to cover, which may cause a bit of a liquidity crisis for the funds.

The concept of "Screw the hedge fund vampires who exist only to destroy companies like Gamestop" is a big part of /r/WallStreetBets's messaging. It's a compelling message, and a decent secondary reason for this.

The primary reason to manipulate markets remains profit, though.

Step 2: HFTs buy shares ahead of Robinhood users.

Remember Citadel, the firm who can front-run robinhood trades, and got to see all of that RH data a little early because they paid for flow? Yeah. When do you think they started buying $GME in front of RH traders on momentum?

Because the volume of shares exchanged suggests that the HFT folks were all over this, all the way to $150. The message on WSB might be "lots of little guys screwing big Wall Street", but the truth is that the HFT robots were screwing everyone, while paying RobinHood a kickback.

Step 3: A hedge fund becomes insolvent. Today it was Melvin Capital Management. It very likely won't be the last.

Melvin immediately sells off a portion of itself, because it needs the influx of cash or it will vanish in a poof of smoke, vaporizing ~$15 Billion in the process.

Step 4: Who's the lead investor, picking up part of a usually successful fund at fire-sale prices?

Right. Citadel, probably with some of the cash they made by repeatedly profiting in the milliseconds before filling the trades that collapsed this fund.
Citadel, Point72 to Invest $2.75 Billion Into Melvin Capital Management
WSJ News Exclusive | Citadel, Point72 to Invest $2.75 Billion Into Melvin Capital Management
Hedge fund Melvin Capital has been hit hard by a series of short bets to start the year, down nearly 30% for 2021 through Friday, people familiar with the firm said.

Step 5: Citadel still has access to RH order flows, is still allowed to front-run them and/or pocket the spread, and can use that and other information to determine the next over-leveraged fund that's going to get squeezed.

So, the next time you discount the impact of "4chan with a bloomberg terminal", remember that they are not the only ones who stand to benefit from intentionally screwing exposed short-sellers.

The professionals are all too happy to amplify the efforts of the amateurs for profit.

Because if amateurs manipulate the market, uh, truthfully, then nobody loses their license.

"I (retail investor) bought because I hate Citron & hedge funds, and we're going to screw them for profit. Join us, but do your own due diligence. YOLO!" might just be legal. IANAL.

If a licensed broker/dealer did this, they'd lose their license, and probably go to jail. Martha Stewart did time for less.

But Citadel, by paying for order flow and sitting in the middle, gets to legally ride-along, printing money the whole way.

So, when you ask yourself, "who pays for no-commission trades, and why?" or "what's the harm of RobinHood's business model?", take a look at what happens behind the scenes, in the milliseconds after you press buy, but before you own those shares.

It's vampires all the way down.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zoupa on January 28, 2021, 12:29:12 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/XUZUfhS.jpeg)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on January 28, 2021, 01:08:39 AM
 :lol:

Damn well done.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 01:10:39 AM
Straw man
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 28, 2021, 03:43:55 AM
I still see WSB just fine.
I note its member count has doubled.

But yeah. There's a lot of worry there they'll be shut down. Talk that some idiots are sending threatening messages to the short sellers, that they keep being infiltrated by dodgy accounts posting misleading stuff, etc...
Their general takeaway is that they're onto something and the man (tm) is scared.

As to doubting WSB is behind it.... Look at the numbers some of the guys on there are pouring in. It's not just kids with $100 to burn. Some are dealing in the millions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 04:18:50 AM
What annoys me most is the institutional shrilling.

They don't have a problem with stock manipulation, they have problems with it happening outside of their comfort zone and by the market segment that was intended to simply provide them a stream of income and not a hit of losses.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on January 28, 2021, 04:26:45 AM
Were there any consequences for senators who received a classified Covid briefing early on and used that privileged knowledge to optimize their stocks portfolios?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 05:09:28 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 28, 2021, 04:26:45 AM
Were there any consequences for senators who received a classified Covid briefing early on and used that privileged knowledge to optimize their stocks portfolios?

There certainly has not been a widespread discussion of it in the financial media.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 05:10:44 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 28, 2021, 04:26:45 AM
Were there any consequences for senators who received a classified Covid briefing early on and used that privileged knowledge to optimize their stocks portfolios?

Wiki says the FBI closed their investigations.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 05:14:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 05:10:44 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 28, 2021, 04:26:45 AM
Were there any consequences for senators who received a classified Covid briefing early on and used that privileged knowledge to optimize their stocks portfolios?

Wiki says the FBI closed their investigations.

:lol: At least some things are the same in both the US and Hungary.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 28, 2021, 05:17:40 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 05:14:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 05:10:44 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 28, 2021, 04:26:45 AM
Were there any consequences for senators who received a classified Covid briefing early on and used that privileged knowledge to optimize their stocks portfolios?

Wiki says the FBI closed their investigations.

:lol: At least some things are the same in both the US and Hungary.

Do people in Hungary not eat food nor need oxygen? :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 05:21:40 AM
 :rolleyes: 2/10.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 28, 2021, 05:28:51 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 05:21:40 AM
:rolleyes: 2/10.

:hug:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 28, 2021, 05:29:37 AM
Granted I haven't been to America since last Feb so I can't say what they currently do.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 07:11:56 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 08:02:46 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 27, 2021, 07:59:57 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 27, 2021, 06:56:27 PM
Big investors get bailouts for recklessness

Please elaborate.

Aint gonna give you a brief on the 2008 crisis mate you will need to do your own reading up on that.

It is almost as though you are starting at a conclusion point.

If in 2008 we bailed out big investors with long positions, we fucked over big investors with short positions.

Theoretically the Gamestop runup is fueled by small investors trying to fuck over big investors with short positions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 08:32:14 AM
Might be just people losing their shit but apparently Robinhood has stopped accepting buy orders for the meme stocks of the last few days.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zoupa on January 28, 2021, 08:35:15 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 01:10:39 AM
Straw man

Is the current US financial system flawed?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 08:37:05 AM
Not just Robinhood:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unprecedented-move-td-ameritrade-puts-restrictions-transactions-gme-amc?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

QuoteThe brokerage said that it imposed these unprecedented unilateral - as in not mandated by either a regulator or the government - actions "out of an abundance of caution amid unprecedented market conditions and other factors."

Expect many more exchanges to follow suit, because hedge funds clearly need to be protected when faced with the retail daytrading mob.

Meanwhile, with nobody there to bail them out, the basket of top hedge fund favorites, the Goldman hedge fund VIP stock basket, is plumbing new lows as fears of wholesale liquidations grow as the Goldman basket of most shorted names keeps rising ever higher,
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zoupa on January 28, 2021, 08:41:12 AM
 :lol:

It's so rigged, and transparently so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 08:42:24 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 11:10:00 PM
Is there any fundamental reason why anyone would short sell a stock?  There must be some, because some very smart people are doing it, but it sounds like such a dangerous hassle.  Can't you just buy a put or sell a call if you are bearish on the stock?

Yes, but merely buying the put or selling the call puts a cap on your upside as well as the downside. It's a matter of degrees.

Just as with put options, short selling can be an excellent hedge in a portfolio that is otherwise long on a bunch of stocks and is worried over rising volatility.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 09:00:03 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 28, 2021, 08:41:12 AM
:lol:

It's so rigged, and transparently so.

This is what I am finding fascinating and infuriating - they can't afford to pretend it's a fair game anymore.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 09:02:09 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 28, 2021, 08:35:15 AM
Is the current US financial system flawed?

It's hunky dory.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 28, 2021, 09:13:03 AM
I was posting about this a few months ago; the stock market is ridiculous. A self-contained economy with little bearing on the reality for the majority.

It has long left its simple roots of investing in a business that you have confidence in doing well. So much of it is now people trading bits of paper back and forth, some winning some losing. Impacts on the actual companies involved being very abstract and related to the potential to sell more bits of paper rather than any direct income from selling a stock for $100 vs $50. Its understandable that it would go ever higher and higher in this situation.

As I said however a key problem is that there's no easy and more productive way to invest your money. When you've confidence stocks (and property)= earnings, then there's no incentive to invest in things that might actually have useful effects beyond the market, like some guy in your town starting up a new brewery or the like.

We really need something to make it a viable alternative to put money towards useful needs. Even if the potential earnings are lower, if you can be fairly sure you won't lose, it could be a winner with many.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 09:14:13 AM
Nice interview on this:

https://youtu.be/1iYh_mc26SU?t=538
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 09:54:31 AM
Changed my mind.  Bought 1 February 5 GME put @35.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 28, 2021, 10:00:32 AM
I bought 3 GME at the start of the week. Just sold 1, so I'm in profit for the lot, won't be losing anything. Now I can relax with the other 2 and see what happens.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 28, 2021, 10:04:33 AM
:lol:

After de-listing some of the stocks RobinHood has been flooded with 1 star reviews and now looks like this in the App store:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Es06VcFUUAEesRy?format=png&name=small)

A bit like in the Stock Exchange, most appstores have rules and will de-list apps if they fall below a certain rating.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 10:27:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 09:54:31 AM
Changed my mind.  Bought 1 February 5 GME put @35.

How much did you pay?

Seems like almost no chance of it going under $35 a share in a week.

I was looking at a 1 year put with a strike price of $300 and the cost was $240. The universe is pricing in a collapse but I can only place short orders with Ally and Fidelity and neither will take the order. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 10:33:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 10:00:32 AM
I bought 3 GME at the start of the week. Just sold 1, so I'm in profit for the lot, won't be losing anything. Now I can relax with the other 2 and see what happens.

You should sell them and enjoy your profits and never do this again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 10:35:33 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 10:27:26 AM
How much did you pay?

Seems like almost no chance of it going under $35 a share in a week.

I was looking at a 1 year put with a strike price of $300 and the cost was $240. The universe is pricing in a collapse but I can only place short orders with Ally and Fidelity and neither will take the order. :(

$210.

I agree about tiny chance of dropping to $35.  But as long as the share price drops I can cash out the put at a profit.  (Just before I posted Etrade was showing an option price of $2.69) And I didn't want to bet a lot of money, so I had to go pretty far down the chain to get a relatively cheap option.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 28, 2021, 10:44:37 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 10:00:32 AM
I bought 3 GME at the start of the week. Just sold 1, so I'm in profit for the lot, won't be losing anything. Now I can relax with the other 2 and see what happens.
The old "playing with the house's money" thinking again.  If you're not willing to buy 2 GME right now, then you should probably not be keeping them either.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on January 28, 2021, 10:47:53 AM
Man, I would burn all of this down. Stupid Capitalism.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 10:51:53 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 10:33:05 AM
You should sell them and enjoy your profits and never do this again.

I thought you were in GME.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 28, 2021, 10:55:41 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 28, 2021, 10:47:53 AM
Man, I would burn all of this down. Stupid Capitalism.
This whole saga does make one question to what extent the stock market is just a casino for the rich that gives no positive contribution to society.  It definitely seems like a huge waste to have a whole bunch of really smart people trying to figure out how to one-up each other on some option squeeze play rather than put their talents to something that would make the world a better place, such as researching cure for cancer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:06:52 AM
I wonder if Etrade just turned off GME trading.  Not showing bid/offer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 28, 2021, 11:07:20 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 28, 2021, 10:55:41 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 28, 2021, 10:47:53 AM
Man, I would burn all of this down. Stupid Capitalism.
This whole saga does make one question to what extent the stock market is just a casino for the rich that gives no positive contribution to society.  It definitely seems like a huge waste to have a whole bunch of really smart people trying to figure out how to one-up each other on some option squeeze play rather than put their talents to something that would make the world a better place, such as researching cure for cancer.
Or even its function as an efficent market of shares in companies that are in some way linked to or understood in some way to reflect the value of that company. It does make you think what is the purpose of a stock market and is it meeting it's simpler classic purpose of a source of capital. I mean is there a better way to use the capital that's backing these more exotic investments and should we be looking at that?

It is striking that this little event does seem to cast more of a mood on this stuff than various government steps to ban or restrict it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 28, 2021, 11:08:40 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 28, 2021, 10:44:37 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 10:00:32 AM
I bought 3 GME at the start of the week. Just sold 1, so I'm in profit for the lot, won't be losing anything. Now I can relax with the other 2 and see what happens.
The old "playing with the house's money" thinking again.  If you're not willing to buy 2 GME right now, then you should probably not be keeping them either.

At the moment it looks like I probably should have sold all yes.  But meh, I'm conservative with losses and liberal with gains, I'm not a gambler and not expecting to make it big with stocks (as seen from the very small amount put in to begin with. In hindsight its tempting to regret not throwing in 10k and earning big) and if I miss out on £500 its unfortunate but not going to impact my finances much.
The manipulation going on by the trading platforms does seem to have ruined the projections. Nonetheless that's hindsight, had no way to know back then that I was selling near the top, and lets see how things work out, Friday does still stand as a day when all those options expire. Regular people may be locked out but there's more than regular people looking in on this now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 11:09:23 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 28, 2021, 10:44:37 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 10:00:32 AM
I bought 3 GME at the start of the week. Just sold 1, so I'm in profit for the lot, won't be losing anything. Now I can relax with the other 2 and see what happens.
The old "playing with the house's money" thinking again.  If you're not willing to buy 2 GME right now, then you should probably not be keeping them either.

:hug:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 11:10:28 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 10:51:53 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 10:33:05 AM
You should sell them and enjoy your profits and never do this again.

I thought you were in GME.

Per my statement, I was in on GME for 1 hour, 4 minutes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 11:11:52 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:06:52 AM
I wonder if Etrade just turned off GME trading.  Not showing bid/offer.

We just discussed this above. Several brokers banned stock purchase of meme stocks, people can only sell, and it is being reflected in the prices as well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:16:47 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 11:11:52 AM
We just discussed this above. Several brokers banned stock purchase of meme stocks, people can only sell, and it is being reflected in the prices as well.

You betcha.  We had discussed Robin Hood and TD Ameritrade not taking buy orders.  And now I'm discussing Etrade.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:18:07 AM
Price is dropping like a stone.  Hope they don't void options.

Squeeze, you might want to get out while you can.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 11:20:11 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 10:35:33 AM
I agree about tiny chance of dropping to $35.  But as long as the share price drops I can cash out the put at a profit.  (Just before I posted Etrade was showing an option price of $2.69) And I didn't want to bet a lot of money, so I had to go pretty far down the chain to get a relatively cheap option.

I think you may end up having made the correct decision.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:21:25 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 11:20:11 AM
I think you may end up having made the correct decision.  :D

How's that for timing, eh?  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 28, 2021, 11:23:03 AM
I wonder what is it is like psychogically for gamestop in a of this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 11:25:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:21:25 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 11:20:11 AM
I think you may end up having made the correct decision.  :D

How's that for timing, eh?  :D

I will not be surprised if you end up making more from GME than I did if this keeps up.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:27:55 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 11:25:26 AM
I will not be surprised if you end up making more from GME than I did if this keeps up.  :lol:

What bar am I aiming for?  :shifty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 11:30:07 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 28, 2021, 10:55:41 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 28, 2021, 10:47:53 AM
Man, I would burn all of this down. Stupid Capitalism.
This whole saga does make one question to what extent the stock market is just a casino for the rich that gives no positive contribution to society.  It definitely seems like a huge waste to have a whole bunch of really smart people trying to figure out how to one-up each other on some option squeeze play rather than put their talents to something that would make the world a better place, such as researching cure for cancer.

There are obviously 2 reasons to be in the stock market: to invest in companies, and to speculate.

If you are there to invest, you are theoretically looking at value of the business.

Speculation is just a nice term for gambling.

The theory I was taught in business school is that the speculators provide market liquidity for the longer investors and in a rational market also are aligned the value with the longer term investors. Equilibrium is reached with people equally betting that the price will go up or go down.

But here you have a tiny company and it seems the entire country was trying speculate on it. The long term investors are irrelevant to the equation. The rules are restricted on the side of the short sellers. So you basically end up in a situation that those wanting to buy the stock are able to, at every accelerating prices. Those that are bearish are frozen out of the market (people like me couldn't short sell).

If Fidelity had taken my order yesterday, I'd be up about $10k right now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:32:26 AM
Oooh, little rally going on!

This is so exciting.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 11:33:28 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:27:55 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 11:25:26 AM
I will not be surprised if you end up making more from GME than I did if this keeps up.  :lol:

What bar am I aiming for?  :shifty:

I pulled the plug after ~2k profit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 28, 2021, 11:34:51 AM
Robin Hood is going to be destroyed due to this. Trading 212 seems to blocking buys too.
I hope there is some outcome from it all and it isn't just swept udnet the carpet.
Power to the people and all that.

I do wonder where gamestop will settle for the long term. Higher than before seems likely I'd say.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:39:17 AM
Ho, rally continues!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 11:42:07 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 10:33:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 10:00:32 AM
I bought 3 GME at the start of the week. Just sold 1, so I'm in profit for the lot, won't be losing anything. Now I can relax with the other 2 and see what happens.

You should sell them and enjoy your profits and never do this again.

This is beginning to feel a lot like the time just before the 90s tech boom collapse. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 28, 2021, 11:49:31 AM
WSB says

Quote
Do not fall for the naked short ladder attacks! This is where MMs naked short a stock and sell the same stock back and forth to each other - this is what is going on when you see the stock drop down in a straight line out of nowhere!

I'm not sure about the 90s tech crash but I hope there is a reckoning out of this.
Gamestop should never have been allowed to be shorted over 100%. This kind of investment vulturism is finally getting a taste of its own medicine and everything is being thrown to protect it.
There is also clearly a gap in the market for a more independent mainstream stock tool given the buying freezes going on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 11:58:38 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 09:02:09 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 28, 2021, 08:35:15 AM
Is the current US financial system flawed?

It's hunky dory.

I wouldn't go that far, but this is a problem that can be fixed by upping market manipulation enforcement and adding some clarifying legislation targeting this coordinated schemes.  It's hardly an indictment of the entire financial system.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:59:50 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 11:58:38 AM
I wouldn't go that far, but this is a problem that can be fixed by upping market manipulation enforcement and adding some clarifying legislation targeting this coordinated schemes.  It's hardly an indictment of the entire financial system.

How would you define the problem?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 28, 2021, 12:02:40 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 11:49:31 AM
WSB says

Quote
Do not fall for the naked short ladder attacks! This is where MMs naked short a stock and sell the same stock back and forth to each other - this is what is going on when you see the stock drop down in a straight line out of nowhere!

I'm not sure about the 90s tech crash but I hope there is a reckoning out of this.
Gamestop should never have been allowed to be shorted over 100%. This kind of investment vulturism is finally getting a taste of its own medicine and everything is being thrown to protect it.
There is also clearly a gap in the market for a more independent mainstream stock tool given the buying freezes going on.
I think Joe Wiesenthal's point is probably right that this will change things because once you've seen what is in effect a crash, upwards you can't go back to a framework where that doesn't exist. Whether that'll just be changing in how you price options or something else - who knows. But we now know there's a possibility of shares being Gamestopped which is new and not something I don't think anyone had ever previously really considered - who's heard of investors having to decrease their exposure because a stock is doing too well :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 12:04:57 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 27, 2021, 11:10:00 PM
Is there any fundamental reason why anyone would short sell a stock?  There must be some, because some very smart people are doing it, but it sounds like such a dangerous hassle.  Can't you just buy a put or sell a call if you are bearish on the stock?

Options are standard form contracts with fixed durations and strike prices so they are less flexible than shorts.  With a short you can maintain the position as long as you keep making margin.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 12:06:06 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:59:50 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 11:58:38 AM
I wouldn't go that far, but this is a problem that can be fixed by upping market manipulation enforcement and adding some clarifying legislation targeting this coordinated schemes.  It's hardly an indictment of the entire financial system.

How would you define the problem?

The internet allows otherwise unconnected individuals to coordinate together on a decentralized market manipulation scheme.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 12:07:48 PM
Goddamn you're smart Joan.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 12:10:38 PM
Yow, price is charging back.

Stay in Squeeze, stay in!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 12:12:27 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 12:06:06 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 11:59:50 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 11:58:38 AM
I wouldn't go that far, but this is a problem that can be fixed by upping market manipulation enforcement and adding some clarifying legislation targeting this coordinated schemes.  It's hardly an indictment of the entire financial system.

How would you define the problem?

The internet allows otherwise unconnected individuals to coordinate together on a decentralized market manipulation scheme.

decentralized market manipulation?  Isn't that what we call the market  :P

For all the hype from those like Yi who defend the market with the mantra that if left unregulated it is efficient and prices are set by the price one is willing to pay yada yada yada,  this shows the need for regulation.   For the first time the market insiders didn't have the advantage they normally do. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 11:42:07 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 10:33:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 10:00:32 AM
I bought 3 GME at the start of the week. Just sold 1, so I'm in profit for the lot, won't be losing anything. Now I can relax with the other 2 and see what happens.

You should sell them and enjoy your profits and never do this again.

This is beginning to feel a lot like the time just before the 90s tech boom collapse.

Beginning? Where have you been the last three years?  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 12:21:56 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 12:12:27 PM
decentralized market manipulation?  Isn't that what we call the market  :P

:D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 12:26:44 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 12:12:27 PM
For all the hype from those like Yi who defend the market with the mantra that if left unregulated it is efficient and prices are set by the price one is willing to pay yada yada yada,  this shows the need for regulation.   For the first time the market insiders didn't have the advantage they normally do.

There is regulation; the SEC brings plenty of manipulation enforcement cases and has plenty of authority; the exchanges also have some power to address manipulation. It's just that this manifestation is novel, the regulators are used to ferreting out schemes hatched by related individuals (e.g. in the same firm or industry) not an anonymous group of people on a subreddit.

And it's not like the US is the only country in the world that has an options market.  It's just a lot bigger than most of the others.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 12:27:21 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 12:12:27 PM
For all the hype from those like Yi who defend the market with the mantra that if left unregulated it is efficient and prices are set by the price one is willing to pay yada yada yada,  this shows the need for regulation.   For the first time the market insiders didn't have the advantage they normally do.

Not sure why this shows the need for regulation. You have a bunch of gamblers gambling, and in the meantime giving an actual company an opportunity to raise capital, while employees with stock or stock option (or normal investors) get a winning lottery ticket.

Probably a bunch of speculators are going to get burned, and a smaller group will win, but if they want to gamble that isn't skin off our backs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 12:29:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 12:07:48 PM
Goddamn you're smart Joan.  :)

It's just that over the years I've been involved in lots of cases involving Wall Street one way or another: I haven't seen it all but I've seen a lot.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 12:31:46 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 12:26:44 PM
the regulators are used to ferreting out schemes hatched by related individuals (e.g. in the same firm or industry)

There are several people with enough capital to do this on their own.

For example, if rather than a bunch of reddit users, Elon Musk decided to teach the shorts a lesson and make them back off, he could do this unilaterally. Regulators wouldn't be able to pursue that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 12:33:22 PM
America today: I see antifa people trying to burn the system down in the streets, and the MAGA people trying to burn the system down in the stock market. What if they really mad at the same group at the top, and this group at the top is focused on making sure the other two groups hate each other more?  :hmm:

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 12:53:54 PM
There are plenty of regulation being considered to protect people from undue risk

(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/804357668645896222/804408145567809536/EsymUqaVoAE0lpj.png?width=582&height=582)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 12:56:37 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 12:31:46 PM
There are several people with enough capital to do this on their own.

For example, if rather than a bunch of reddit users, Elon Musk decided to teach the shorts a lesson and make them back off, he could do this unilaterally. Regulators wouldn't be able to pursue that.

What you describe is not unknown - the CEO of overstock tried something like that a couple years ago. He got hit with a class action suit, but managed to get it dismissed last year.  It's a risk that shorts face but unless there is a real motivation why would the individual bother?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 01:11:29 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 12:20:45 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 11:42:07 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 10:33:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 10:00:32 AM
I bought 3 GME at the start of the week. Just sold 1, so I'm in profit for the lot, won't be losing anything. Now I can relax with the other 2 and see what happens.

You should sell them and enjoy your profits and never do this again.

This is beginning to feel a lot like the time just before the 90s tech boom collapse.

Beginning? Where have you been the last three years?  :P

Fair point.

Quote from: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 12:33:22 PM
America today: I see antifa people trying to burn the system down in the streets

You really need to stop watching FOX

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 12:26:44 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 12:12:27 PM
For all the hype from those like Yi who defend the market with the mantra that if left unregulated it is efficient and prices are set by the price one is willing to pay yada yada yada,  this shows the need for regulation.   For the first time the market insiders didn't have the advantage they normally do.

There is regulation; the SEC brings plenty of manipulation enforcement cases and has plenty of authority; the exchanges also have some power to address manipulation. It's just that this manifestation is novel, the regulators are used to ferreting out schemes hatched by related individuals (e.g. in the same firm or industry) not an anonymous group of people on a subreddit.

And it's not like the US is the only country in the world that has an options market.  It's just a lot bigger than most of the others.

Of course there is regulation.  And of course regulators try to regulate.  But we have both been involved with enough securities cases to see there are deficiencies.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 01:14:22 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 12:56:37 PM
What you describe is not unknown - the CEO of overstock tried something like that a couple years ago. He got hit with a class action suit, but managed to get it dismissed last year.  It's a risk that shorts face but unless there is a real motivation why would the individual bother?

Because it would be awesome?

If you have $150 billion, why not?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 28, 2021, 01:43:14 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 12:33:22 PM
America today: I see antifa people trying to burn the system down in the streets, and the MAGA people trying to burn the system down in the stock market. What if they really mad at the same group at the top, and this group at the top is focused on making sure the other two groups hate each other more?  :hmm:


MAGA people? :blink:

But ja, that's long been observed as a problem with the alt right. Many of them are decent guys, and their eyes are open enough to realise there's something rotten in the world....
They've just been fed a bunch of counter productive nonsense about what that problem is and how to fix it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 02:06:37 PM
There are a few relevant factors contributing to gamestop and the other short squeezes.  One is the "gamma squeeze" that exploits the fact that the securities markets rely on institutional market makers to make a liquid and fair market. Because the market makers want to stay neutral and hedge their risk, they can become heavy buyers when out of the money call options get close to being in the money, and that buying can precipitate a short squeeze and a scramble for shares.  This phenomenon is a by-product of a trading system that uses market markers - and IMO the presence of market markers is a desirable feature of the system.

If the price rise that precipitates the squeeze occurs based on fundamentals/market news/market trends, then again it's WAD and if the shorts lose their shirt it's because they took that risk.  But if the price rise is based on some variant of pump-and-dump style manipulation, then it's not WAD and the regulators should act.

Another factor I think Tyr raised is that securities lending rules permit the same shares to be lent more than once (albeit subject to some limits).  I've never been able to figure out the purpose of allowing that from a market regulation standpoint.  My understanding is that it is permitted because brokerages make significant income from rehypothecation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 02:20:29 PM
Another thing worth mentioning in this context is that there is a common narrative that views short sellers very negatively as skeevy unethical vultures.  No doubt there are and have been unethical shorts just as there are and have been unethical people in every other nook and cranny of the Street.  It's also true that shorts don't have the same social cachet as (say) VC fund managers or boutique investment banks.

My own opinion based on some experience is that short sellers have a useful role to play in a healthy market system - technically they contribute to price discovery and liquidity and more substantively it is often the short sellers that do the deepest substantive analysis into companies, sometimes finding weaknesses and frauds that would otherwise go undiscovered.  The recent Wirecard scandal is a good example - it was the shorts that first identified the problem.  The reaction was telling as well - the well connected insiders predictably attacked the shorts very aggressively, to the point of convincing the market regulator that instead of investigating the very real massive fraud on the heart of the company, they should instead investigate the shorts and the newspapers that reported the allegations.  So my experience is to be skeptical when you see a lot of people with vested interests attacking shorts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 02:25:56 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 01:43:14 PM

MAGA people? :blink:


Didn't wall street bets get shut down ostensibly because of hate speech rather than market manipulation?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 28, 2021, 02:34:33 PM
So, uh. I'm seeing reports that RobinHood is forcing sales of GameStop held by its users because the owner of RH is also pretty deeply connected to some of the hedge funds getting fucked over by what's going on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 02:36:20 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 02:25:56 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 28, 2021, 01:43:14 PM

MAGA people? :blink:


Didn't wall street bets get shut down ostensibly because of hate speech rather than market manipulation?

It's a usual Internet cesspit of juvenile humour, of course it is easy to find hate speech there. But it is not some kind of Trumpian Internet community, jeesh.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 02:54:11 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 02:25:56 PM
Didn't wall street bets get shut down ostensibly because of hate speech rather than market manipulation?

My understanding is it was hate speech against short sellers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 02:58:27 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 28, 2021, 02:06:37 PM
There are a few relevant factors contributing to gamestop and the other short squeezes.  One is the "gamma squeeze" that exploits the fact that the securities markets rely on institutional market makers to make a liquid and fair market. Because the market makers want to stay neutral and hedge their risk, they can become heavy buyers when out of the money call options get close to being in the money, and that buying can precipitate a short squeeze and a scramble for shares.  This phenomenon is a by-product of a trading system that uses market markers - and IMO the presence of market markers is a desirable feature of the system.

So market makers are counterparties on options?

QuoteIf the price rise that precipitates the squeeze occurs based on fundamentals/market news/market trends, then again it's WAD and if the shorts lose their shirt it's because they took that risk.  But if the price rise is based on some variant of pump-and-dump style manipulation, then it's not WAD and the regulators should act.

That's why I think the SEC is scratching its head on this.  If the price rise is based on a short seller vendetta, and the manipulators are indifferent to their losses, what are they supposed to do?

QuoteAnother factor I think Tyr raised is that securities lending rules permit the same shares to be lent more than once (albeit subject to some limits).  I've never been able to figure out the purpose of allowing that from a market regulation standpoint.  My understanding is that it is permitted because brokerages make significant income from rehypothecation.

Please explain to me why this is a problem.
[/quote]
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 04:15:30 PM
AOC has called for an investigation of brokers who blocked purchases.

Joined by Donald Trump Jr. and Ted Cruz.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 05:21:01 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDML5eveB34

Robin Hood to allow "limited" buying of Reddit stocks starting tomorrow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 05:41:17 PM
So perhaps those who absolutely had to get out of GME shorts to save their bonuses have done so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 28, 2021, 06:08:19 PM
The modern Republican party really is a sight to behold:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Es2mNzyXEAAp86R?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 06:20:32 PM
In the Congressman's defense it is not far off what AF posted in this thread.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 28, 2021, 06:26:05 PM
Is it true some finance people interviewed are calling Reddit the  "deep web" and claiming the wsb people are MAGA supporters?  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 28, 2021, 06:49:01 PM
Robinhood app is not available in my area? Never checked before today so I don't know if it's not available in Canada, or if apple took it down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 28, 2021, 07:22:11 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 28, 2021, 06:20:32 PM
In the Congressman's defense it is not far off what AF posted in this thread.

I have no clue what you are talking about. I don't catch any relation between the congressman shilling his website's promotion and anything I posted here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2021, 01:29:44 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 04:15:30 PM
AOC has called for an investigation of brokers who blocked purchases.

Joined by Donald Trump Jr. and Ted Cruz.

My first thought is that the brokers overstepped by cutting off their own clients, but I'm not sure i want to join this coalition.

Yi questions - 1) yes typically a marketmaker will take the other side of a transaction, to the extent the firm has net exposure one way or another they will hedge. 
2) I'm not sure this is vendetta, I think the reddit investors are looking to make $ by forcing the squeeze
3) Over rehypothication is problematic because in a crisis event collateral that is supposed to there has already been moved and lent out, perhaps multiple times.  This was one of the problems that manifested in the 08 crisis which led the SEC to put some limits on it - but arguably not enough.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 02:01:58 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2021, 01:29:44 AM
3) Over rehypothication is problematic because in a crisis event collateral that is supposed to there has already been moved and lent out, perhaps multiple times.  This was one of the problems that manifested in the 08 crisis which led the SEC to put some limits on it - but arguably not enough.

But isn't that a problem with rehypothecation rather than with shorting +100% of the float?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on January 29, 2021, 02:28:08 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 28, 2021, 06:08:19 PM
The modern Republican party really is a sight to behold:


That they put the QAnon lady on the committee responsible for education is certainly the best(worst) example of how far they've sunk.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 29, 2021, 06:40:40 AM
Gamestop back in the 400s with pre-market buzz. I noticed in Trading 212 the buy button isn't locked anymore.
No intention to buy anymore myself, that's gamblers stuff, shall be aiming to sell up at some point, but looks to be an interesting day ahead. Today is the day shorts are meant to hit the end of the road and have to buy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 06:42:35 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 06:40:40 AM
Today is the day shorts are meant to hit the end of the road and have to buy.

I think you're still confusing short selling and put options.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on January 29, 2021, 06:58:01 AM
Stephen Colbert roughly explains the GameStop stuff: https://youtu.be/AfK9sb9RQ3s

(after a summary of Marjorie Taylor Greene's craziness)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 29, 2021, 08:06:14 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2021, 01:29:44 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 28, 2021, 04:15:30 PM
AOC has called for an investigation of brokers who blocked purchases.

Joined by Donald Trump Jr. and Ted Cruz.

My first thought is that the brokers overstepped by cutting off their own clients, but I'm not sure i want to join this coalition.

I don't think you need to worry about this as a coalition.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/28/aoc-ted-cruz-gamestop-twitter-capitol

QuoteOcasio-Cortez rejects support from Ted Cruz: 'You almost had me murdered'

The Democratic representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has rejected a message of support from Ted Cruz, adding the Texas senator "almost had me murdered three weeks ago".

Cruz on Thursday had endorsed Ocasio-Cortez's call on Twitter for a congressional hearing about the decision by the online trading platform Robinhood to restrict trading in GameStop shares. But while welcoming the chance to work across party lines on the issue, Ocasio-Cortez had harsh words for Cruz.

"I am happy to work with Republicans on this issue where there's common ground, but you almost had me murdered 3 weeks ago so you can sit this one out," Ocasio-Cortez tweeted. "Happy to work w/ almost any other GOP that aren't trying to get me killed. In the meantime if you want to help, you can resign."

"While you conveniently talk about 'moving on', a second Capitol police officer lost their life yesterday in the still-raging aftermath of the attacks you had a role in," she said. "This isn't a joke. We need accountability, and that includes a new senator from Texas."

...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 29, 2021, 08:14:56 AM
When I see articles like this (on game/entertainment sites even), I get worried those elements of frustration (and the sense that nothing really matters) on the right and their manifestations in society in general.

https://kotaku.com/i-threw-1-000-into-that-stonks-game-because-why-not-1846152366

QuoteI Threw $1,000 Into That Stonks Game Because Why Not

My partner and I spent $1000 on a game yesterday. We didn't spend it on Pokémon cards, or Fortnite V-bucks, or decide to become whales in Genshin Impact. But, at my insistence, we combined some funds, downloaded the Robinhood trading app, and bought some stock.

I mean, why the hell not right? We've seen the news about billion-dollar hedge funds flinching because of an organized group of Redditors with an affinity for GameStop. We've seen just about every jokified explanation of what in the actual fuck "shorting stock" means.
Hell, we've even seen all the rocket emojis and "TO THE MOON!!" memes taking over Reddit and Twitter.

In short, this shit looked fun.

We didn't buy GameStop stock, the $300 per share price was a little too rich for our blood, and I didn't want to court any potential conflict of interest quagmires in case the stock did indeed rocket "TO THE MOON." AMC Entertainment stock looked nice at around $11 a share. The subreddit WallStreetBets started to throw around $AMC peppered with the rocket emojis in its daily discussion thread, suggesting it was about to become the next GameStop. So my partner put in the order, and away we went.

I should say, we didn't invest anything that would hurt us to lose. Both of us had a clear understanding of what was at stake playing this little game together (so invest responsibly, kiddos!) We knew we weren't gonna get rich if we did earn some money. And if we lost it all, well, that's how the stock market goes.

There's a phenomenon in gaming (and life) that people like to call "numbers go up." It's when satisfaction is derived from seemingly boring tasks like resource management or finding the right piece of gear to minutely increase a character's stats because it makes numbers go up. And, unless it's golf, numbers going up in a game is good. My partner and I are "numbers go up" people (him more than me) so watching that thin green line representing AMC's stock price rise felt good. Conversely, when it went down, panic ensued. I could always tell when the stock price was doing something because I could hear my partner's loud groans or "holy shits!" from my work station on the opposite end of our apartment.

I spent the day with an r/WallStreetBets tab open, occasionally refreshing its daily discussion thread to see if they had any wisdom regarding which stock to pick next or when to sell. I saw a lot of diamond hands (I feel pretty adept at parsing what memes are supposed to mean, but I could not figure this out at all), the standard "TO THE MOON," and an endless spam of the hallowed ticker symbols $GME, $NOK, and my own $AMC. It felt like a weird cross between all of Michael Douglas' scenes in Wall Street and 4chan.

It reminded me of my days lurking Trade Chat in World of Warcraft. Just being a fly on the subreddit's wall felt like watching a vaguely funny and entertaining drama unfold (when they weren't hurling ableist slurs everywhere).

Still, the subreddit evoked that same weird sense of community, that seductive feeling of camaraderie combined with the notion that not only are the people there making money, but they're also doing so in a way that completely fucks the morally corrupt billionaires on Wall Street. I started to think that I could make a habit of this. I really liked the idea of keeping an eye on this subreddit over time and jumping in on the newest squeeze to make enough money to keep my savings padded with enough cash on hand to cover any catastrophes. No visions of grandeur, no million-dollar days, just a small way to make my little bit of money work for me in the short-term instead of waiting the decades it takes traditional investments to grow. And if it dicked over some billionaires—hell yeah!

I left the decision of when to sell to my partner. He pulled the parachute cord around $16 a share. We didn't make a ton of money, maybe $250 bucks all told in a mere handful of hours. We could have made a little more if we held on longer, and I secretly lamented that he didn't leave some money behind so we could try again the next day. But as it turns out, we made the right decision. We played on the last day the game was still fun. We got in on the joke, made a little money, and got out. Damn, were we lucky.

Now, those plans to reinvest are shot. We can't buy any of the stock we want, and if we had left some cash behind, we would have lost out big. r/WallStreetBets is furious. Numerous top threads on the subreddit are threatening a class action suit against Robinhood (there's now a dedicated subreddit for it) for blocking the ability to trade certain stocks, and almost everyone I follow on Twitter is crying murder most foul—Ja Rule too.

More than the spigot being arbitrarily turned off, the people really being hurt by this do not have the resources hedge fund managers do. They won't be able to ask wealthy friends (like the government) for bailouts. They'll just be left out. It sucks. All of this is so deeply fake, and now, before our eyes, the facade is ripped away. The irony that all of this is going down because of an app called Robinhood is not lost on me. Rob from the rich, give to the—no not like that.


When things calm down, maybe I'll go back to Robinhood or find another app to do some longer-term investing. It seems like all the trading apps are capitulating to their Wall Street overlords, so it'll be hard to find one reputable enough that still has a spine.

The comment section is all then a howling of rage at the elite.  When someone noted:

QuoteSounds a little like the sentiments I heard from the very few Trump supporters in my circles. They were so tired of being passive-aggressively fucked by the status quo that some dark part of them was willing to buy in to impossible/incoherent promises (remember when people could buy homes and support a family on a single income?! lets be great again!) or... in extremis... maybe they could watch it all burn and that would be ok too.

The author basically replied that it wasn't the same as this rage didn't hurt 'black, brown and queer folk'.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 29, 2021, 08:20:03 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 06:42:35 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 06:40:40 AM
Today is the day shorts are meant to hit the end of the road and have to buy.

I think you're still confusing short selling and put options.

:hmm: He might be elsewhere, but at least in this situation he's accurate. Today is supposed to be the day that the prophecy foretold as the forced-buy to cover all the short positions that other hedges have taken.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 29, 2021, 08:23:57 AM
Another worrying example is the cognitive dissonance between the below and the fact that these individuals are being encouraged by the current richest man in the world. :mellow:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/28/gamestop-fun-turns-deadly-serious-reddit-wallstreetbets

Quote"You're a firm who makes money off of exploiting a company and manipulating markets and media to your advantage," the poster writes to Melvin Capital, the most prominent of the GameStop short-selling hedge funds. "I dumped my savings into GME [GameStop's trading symbol], paid my rent for this month with my credit card, and dumped my rent money into more GME. This is personal for me, and millions of others. I'm making this as painful as I can for you."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 29, 2021, 08:30:46 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 29, 2021, 08:23:57 AM
Another worrying example is the cognitive dissonance between the below and the fact that these individuals are being encouraged by the current richest man in the world. :mellow:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/28/gamestop-fun-turns-deadly-serious-reddit-wallstreetbets

Quote"You're a firm who makes money off of exploiting a company and manipulating markets and media to your advantage," the poster writes to Melvin Capital, the most prominent of the GameStop short-selling hedge funds. "I dumped my savings into GME [GameStop's trading symbol], paid my rent for this month with my credit card, and dumped my rent money into more GME. This is personal for me, and millions of others. I'm making this as painful as I can for you."

Well yeah but Musk got rich on selling services and products (and doing that with good marketing). Yes he rode the previous stock craze to the top but he didn't instigate it.

People are hating on the reckless unfair gambling that is allowed unpunished for Wall Street and the rich in general, who are operating a rigged game disguised as open and fair. And I think what really got the anger flowing is that the "elite's" reaction to a group of individuals exploiting the rigged game to the "elite's" disadvantage has been EXACTLY as bad as their worst dectractors thought it would be.

Now of course, trying to make a crusade out of stock speculation is silly and what's happening is clearly a game of musical chairs. But I think Wall Street's handling of this, especially with the crap pulled yesterday, plus the broad media campaign before it are despicable and they deserve all the hate directed toward them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zoupa on January 29, 2021, 08:40:39 AM
You seem to be worrying about weird things, garbon. I don't think the salient points to this story are nihilism and Musk, but more how the game is blatantly rigged against the average Joe on Wall Street.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 29, 2021, 08:41:17 AM
https://gizmodo.com/google-deletes-100-000-negative-reviews-of-robinhood-ap-1846156699


Well we don't want an unreliable manipulative service handling money for their customers be disadvantaged by being known as unreliable and manipulative, do we.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 29, 2021, 08:43:07 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 29, 2021, 08:40:39 AM
You seem to be worrying about weird things, garbon. I don't think the salient points to this story are nihilism and Musk, but more how the game is blatantly rigged against the average Joe on Wall Street.

Exactly, and as I said, it is astonishing how seemingly little it took for this to be admitted in public, in practice.

What it makes me think is that despite the 2008 crisis, these various funds and banks are exactly as insanely leveraged in stupid shit as then, except maybe not specifically in mortgages.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 29, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
Totally agreed with Tamas.
Not many people hate the rich just for being rich. Musk got to where he is for actual innovation and clever marketing. He is really trying to push forward civilization with his space stuff too. This is absolutely the kind of thing that should see success for you.
As opposed to the shorters who are looking to profit from driving a company that employs 10s of thousands of largely poor young people into the ground.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 10:32:36 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
Totally agreed with Tamas.
Not many people hate the rich just for being rich. Musk got to where he is for actual innovation and clever marketing. He is really trying to push forward civilization with his space stuff too. This is absolutely the kind of thing that should see success for you.
As opposed to the shorters who are looking to profit from driving a company that employs 10s of thousands of largely poor young people into the ground.

If your company goes bankrupt and blames the people shorting stock, and you buy that, you are a fool. You are the sort of person I would want to short, but Americans aren't allowed to short people these days (since 1865 anyway).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 29, 2021, 10:33:13 AM
QuoteDaybook
@DaybookJobs
Job Opportunity!

Robinhood seeks a Federal Affairs Manager based in Washington D.C. to focus on federal advocacy and government affairs related to legislative and regulatory matters. @RobinhoodApp
:lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 29, 2021, 11:02:12 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 29, 2021, 08:40:39 AM
You seem to be worrying about weird things, garbon. I don't think the salient points to this story are nihilism and Musk, but more how the game is blatantly rigged against the average Joe on Wall Street.

But we already knew that the economic structure is set up in such a way that if favors those who already have the money. If it wasn't, we wouldn't have the terrible degree of wealth inequality that we have.

This example to be seems to have at its core a foundational narrative about how this is the little guy sticking it to the billionaires but that doesn't appear to be true and as Tamas said "trying to make a crusade out of stock speculation is silly and what's happening is clearly a game of musical chairs".  It is definitely even sillier when one of the key figures encouraging you is the wealthiest individual alive. So you have another situation where social media and a wealthy guy, are encouraging people to engage in a) risky behaviors and b) engage in fantastical narratives about fighting the good fight.

After all, what's going to happen to the individuals who elect to pay their rent on their credit card so they can put their money into the stock and #holdtheline? The poor get poorer and victimization complex escalates.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 29, 2021, 11:06:43 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
Totally agreed with Tamas.
Not many people hate the rich just for being rich. Musk got to where he is for actual innovation and clever marketing. He is really trying to push forward civilization with his space stuff too. This is absolutely the kind of thing that should see success for you.

They probably should. It is heartbreaking to think about how much wealth a single individual can have, while we having people dying because they can't afford food/healthy food, healthcare and/or a place to live.

Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
As opposed to the shorters who are looking to profit from driving a company that employs 10s of thousands of largely poor young people into the ground.

:huh:

Gamestop is a piece of shit company that exploits its employees and is overly reliant on a dying business model. I don't think many will be sad to see it go.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 11:09:22 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 29, 2021, 11:02:12 AM
After all, what's going to happen to the individuals who elect to pay their rent on their credit card so they can put their money into the stock and #holdtheline? The poor get poorer and victimization complex escalates.

There are always suckers. In the past these people invested in snake oil, land speculation schemes that turned out to be swampland, or enrolled in Donald Trump's real estate university. They aren't really victims, they are just stupid, and like previous generations of stupid, they will be bitter, but that bitterness will die with them.

It is better for them than before because right now we have an eviction moratorium.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2021, 11:25:09 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 02:01:58 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2021, 01:29:44 AM
3) Over rehypothication is problematic because in a crisis event collateral that is supposed to there has already been moved and lent out, perhaps multiple times.  This was one of the problems that manifested in the 08 crisis which led the SEC to put some limits on it - but arguably not enough.

But isn't that a problem with rehypothecation rather than with shorting +100% of the float?

Yes.  The only issue with shorting so much of the float is that if there is a successful squeeze the effects will be heightened because of the scramble to secure shares to close out the shorts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 29, 2021, 11:31:23 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 29, 2021, 11:06:43 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
Totally agreed with Tamas.
Not many people hate the rich just for being rich. Musk got to where he is for actual innovation and clever marketing. He is really trying to push forward civilization with his space stuff too. This is absolutely the kind of thing that should see success for you.

They probably should. It is heartbreaking to think about how much wealth a single individual can have, while we having people dying because they can't afford food/healthy food, healthcare and/or a place to live.

Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
As opposed to the shorters who are looking to profit from driving a company that employs 10s of thousands of largely poor young people into the ground.

:huh:

Gamestop is a piece of shit company that exploits its employees and is overly reliant on a dying business model. I don't think many will be sad to see it go.

One oddity I've realised is that with the current state of the Republicans, I've drifted further and further to the left as I've aged. Actually, I think that's what Tim said the other day too! :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on January 29, 2021, 11:34:52 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 29, 2021, 11:06:43 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
Totally agreed with Tamas.
Not many people hate the rich just for being rich. Musk got to where he is for actual innovation and clever marketing. He is really trying to push forward civilization with his space stuff too. This is absolutely the kind of thing that should see success for you.

They probably should. It is heartbreaking to think about how much wealth a single individual can have, while we having people dying because they can't afford food/healthy food, healthcare and/or a place to live.


This. I think if you work hard or have a groundbreaking business model you deserve to make money from it and get rich. But I believe the increasing agglomeration of wealth in the hands of a few is not a good thing, not least for the economy. Maybe I'm naive, but I feel putting some of that money into the hands of people who will actually spend it can't be anything but a stimulus for the economy. That can be private individuals who use it for consumption, or the state who can use the money for infrastructure, education etc.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on January 29, 2021, 11:36:01 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 29, 2021, 11:31:23 AM
One oddity I've realised is that with the current state of the Republicans, I've drifted further and further to the left as I've aged. Actually, I think that's what Tim said the other day too! :o

I saw on Steam that you got the Drama Queen achievement in Civ6. Years ago I would have found that hilariously appropriate. These days, not so much. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on January 29, 2021, 11:37:29 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 29, 2021, 11:36:01 AM
Quote from: garbon on January 29, 2021, 11:31:23 AM
One oddity I've realised is that with the current state of the Republicans, I've drifted further and further to the left as I've aged. Actually, I think that's what Tim said the other day too! :o

I saw on Steam that you got the Drama Queen achievement in Civ6. Years ago I would have found that hilariously appropriate. These days, not so much. :P

:D :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2021, 12:41:28 PM
A few more points:

+stock shorts don't kill companies. Inability to generate operating income and repay debt kills companies. It doesn't matter whether GameStop stock trades on the secondary market at $500 or $10.  What matters is that their revenue has been declining for 10 straight years, they are running near -$100 million net income per quarter, and even operating cash flow is negative this year.  What matters is that they are still a brick and mortar retailer in a business transitioning rapidly to digital delivery and cloud-based subscription models.

+the hedge fund guys are complaining that if hedge fund managers coordinated in the same way the subreddit did, they'd go to jail.  They are right.  That differential treatment didn't matter back in the days where a bunch of minnows would trade stock tips on a bulletin board. But it looks very different when there is active coordination of a combined capital pool that matches or exceeds the largest hedge funds.  It's not so much David vs Goliath as 3 million Lilliputians coming together to take down some Gullivers.

+ what the subreddit leaders are doing is egging people on to pay $500 for something worth $10; an indeterminate number of them may be personally profiting from this. Even if they succeed in crushing the shorts, eventually the price will correct and a lot of ordinary individuals will sustain big losses.

+Robinhood issues a press release saying that they imposed trading restrictions because otherwise they would have breached net capital regs and been unable to meet clearinghouse deposits.  That has some plausibility given the news they just had to draw a few hundred mil in additional loans.  Either way, Congress will investigate and the truth will out..
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 29, 2021, 01:00:18 PM
One thing I would add is that coordinating hedge fund managers would go to jail if they were stupid enough to do it publicly. That they do it privately I have no doubt.

One thing comes to mind is Kodak. Last year it had some violent price moves thanks to silly vaccine related news and whatnot. It was obviously some shady coordinated insider tradimg bullshit but it didn't even register in the news.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on January 29, 2021, 01:06:38 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2021, 12:41:28 PM+the hedge fund guys are complaining that if hedge fund managers coordinated in the same way the subreddit did, they'd go to jail.  They are right.  That differential treatment didn't matter back in the days where a bunch of minnows would trade stock tips on a bulletin board. But it looks very different when there is active coordination of a combined capital pool that matches or exceeds the largest hedge funds.  It's not so much David vs Goliath as 3 million Lilliputians coming together to take down some Gullivers.

Then the Lilliputians should have founded a company with their funds first and then made the transaction as that company?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 29, 2021, 01:40:20 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2021, 12:41:28 PM
A few more points:

+stock shorts don't kill companies. Inability to generate operating income and repay debt kills companies. It doesn't matter whether GameStop stock trades on the secondary market at $500 or $10.  What matters is that their revenue has been declining for 10 straight years, they are running near -$100 million net income per quarter, and even operating cash flow is negative this year.  What matters is that they are still a brick and mortar retailer in a business transitioning rapidly to digital delivery and cloud-based subscription models.



Stock shorts can harm companies who might otherwise seek to finance changes to their business through equity offerings.

Quote+the hedge fund guys are complaining that if hedge fund managers coordinated in the same way the subreddit did, they'd go to jail.  They are right.  That differential treatment didn't matter back in the days where a bunch of minnows would trade stock tips on a bulletin board. But it looks very different when there is active coordination of a combined capital pool that matches or exceeds the largest hedge funds.  It's not so much David vs Goliath as 3 million Lilliputians coming together to take down some Gullivers.

Not only does it look different.  It is different.  The Lilliputians are the market and the folks who are used to the concentration of information in the hands of the few are feeling the effects.

Quote+ what the subreddit leaders are doing is egging people on to pay $500 for something worth $10; an indeterminate number of them may be personally profiting from this. Even if they succeed in crushing the shorts, eventually the price will correct and a lot of ordinary individuals will sustain big losses.


Here is the big disconnect.  Now we are try to judge what a stock is really worth, when has that been a thing in recent years. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 29, 2021, 01:51:03 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 10:32:36 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
Totally agreed with Tamas.
Not many people hate the rich just for being rich. Musk got to where he is for actual innovation and clever marketing. He is really trying to push forward civilization with his space stuff too. This is absolutely the kind of thing that should see success for you.
As opposed to the shorters who are looking to profit from driving a company that employs 10s of thousands of largely poor young people into the ground.

If your company goes bankrupt and blames the people shorting stock, and you buy that, you are a fool. You are the sort of person I would want to short, but Americans aren't allowed to short people these days (since 1865 anyway).
Who is doing that?
Companies rise and fall naturally all the time.
At the same time there are those who actively gamble on their failing. And when you've billions resting on companies going under its in your interest to make sure they do.
I've seen way too many examples of stock market shenanigans crushing companies that might otherwise have lived on.
It's not the company themselves that are worth feeling for in this case. They often have shitty management who will go onto retire rich and happy. It's all the normal people who lose their jobs out of it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 29, 2021, 02:08:04 PM
Interesting reading this thread and the FT's ongoing coverage of Wirecard and the fallout - particularly around the allegations (which regulators believed :blink:) that negative reports were being made corruptly to help short sellers in hedge funds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 02:16:57 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 01:51:03 PM

I've seen way too many examples of stock market shenanigans crushing companies that might otherwise have lived on.


Can you name any that resulted from shorting stock?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 02:29:18 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 29, 2021, 12:41:28 PM
+the hedge fund guys are complaining that if hedge fund managers coordinated in the same way the subreddit did, they'd go to jail.  They are right.  That differential treatment didn't matter back in the days where a bunch of minnows would trade stock tips on a bulletin board. But it looks very different when there is active coordination of a combined capital pool that matches or exceeds the largest hedge funds.  It's not so much David vs Goliath as 3 million Lilliputians coming together to take down some Gullivers.

I think the concept that the market is rigged against the small guy is 99% bullshit, but there are places it does have validity.

A bunch of wealthy guys can band together, pool their money, and use their collective billions to squeeze the fuck out of shorts, launch hostile takeovers, or short a stock into oblivion. We call such collectives "hedge funds". The managers of such collectives even get their compensation at significantly reduced tax rates due to the treatment of carried interest.

Smaller investors are legally excluded from forming hedge funds. If they folks on reddit were able to meet the wealth requirements to form a hedge fund, they could have done so and run up the price of Gamestop with their collective money, and it would all be legal (assuming of course that they are really driving Gamestop, which I don't believe).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on January 29, 2021, 04:20:24 PM
What are the mechanisms to deal with the voting rights associated to the stock being loaned-sold-bought-resold? 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 05:18:20 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 02:29:18 PM
Smaller investors are legally excluded from forming hedge funds. If they folks on reddit were able to meet the wealth requirements to form a hedge fund, they could have done so and run up the price of Gamestop with their collective money, and it would all be legal (assuming of course that they are really driving Gamestop, which I don't believe).

And that hedge fund would be in the exact same situation the reditteers are now: owning shares they paid $300 for in a company that's worth $6 a share.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Malthus on January 29, 2021, 05:18:34 PM
Looking around Reddit, it looks like classic bubble language - most of the posts are encouraging everyone to buy, buy, buy. The idea is that the price must go up, because of all the short sellers, so you can't lose.

I assume that when this is all over, a lot of investors will be left owning piles of low value stocks that they bought at the top of the enthusiasm.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 29, 2021, 05:32:59 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 02:16:57 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 01:51:03 PM

I've seen way too many examples of stock market shenanigans crushing companies that might otherwise have lived on.


Can you name any that resulted from shorting stock?
I said stock market shenanigans.
Vaux is the big one that really hurts for me personally. Literally ripped a hole in the middle of Sunderland which 20 years later still hasn't been fixed.
Then there was 2008 and all of its casualties...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Razgovory on January 29, 2021, 05:50:51 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
Totally agreed with Tamas.
Not many people hate the rich just for being rich. Musk got to where he is for actual innovation and clever marketing. He is really trying to push forward civilization with his space stuff too. This is absolutely the kind of thing that should see success for you.
As opposed to the shorters who are looking to profit from driving a company that employs 10s of thousands of largely poor young people into the ground.


I certainly don't hate the rich for being rich.  I hate them for being smarter than me.  Always showing off their knowledge.  Also, I hate the ones that dumber than me cause those assholes just want to pull me down with them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 29, 2021, 05:51:00 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 29, 2021, 04:20:24 PM
What are the mechanisms to deal with the voting rights associated to the stock being loaned-sold-bought-resold?

The simple answer is that if a share has voting rights attached to it, whoever is the owner of the share has the rights attached to the share.  I am not sure what you are asking.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 06:00:57 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 05:32:59 PM
I said stock market shenanigans.

You also said this

"At the same time there are those who actively gamble on their failing. And when you've billions resting on companies going under its in your interest to make sure they do. "
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 07:07:43 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 05:32:59 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 02:16:57 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 29, 2021, 01:51:03 PM

I've seen way too many examples of stock market shenanigans crushing companies that might otherwise have lived on.


Can you name any that resulted from shorting stock?
I said stock market shenanigans.
Vaux is the big one that really hurts for me personally. Literally ripped a hole in the middle of Sunderland which 20 years later still hasn't been fixed.
Then there was 2008 and all of its casualties...

I don't know anything about Vaux, but the story in 2008 generally revolves around the mortgage market and debt market, not the stock market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 07:14:21 PM
Yeah, what is Vaux?  Googling gives me a town in France.  Vauxhall?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 07:42:41 PM
https://www.slashgear.com/robinhood-reveals-strict-new-volatile-stock-rules-limits-on-gme-amc-fractional-shares-29657318/

Robinhood's limits.  TLDNR: clients can only hold one share of Gamestop.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Zoupa on January 29, 2021, 07:52:55 PM
Can't you buy stocks a zillion ways? What's the big deal about this app?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on January 29, 2021, 08:00:19 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 07:14:21 PM
Yeah, what is Vaux?

Fort Vaux? A tomb of heroes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 29, 2021, 08:02:18 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 29, 2021, 07:52:55 PM
Can't you buy stocks a zillion ways? What's the big deal about this app?

no transactional fees.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 08:05:03 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 29, 2021, 07:52:55 PM
Can't you buy stocks a zillion ways? What's the big deal about this app?

You need to ask someone who buys into the "Robinhood protecting their hedge fund buddies" narrative.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on January 29, 2021, 08:07:48 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 29, 2021, 07:52:55 PM
Can't you buy stocks a zillion ways? What's the big deal about this app?

Well not when you have your money in an app and that is how you buy and trade stocks. You would have to find a completely different way instantly and by that time maybe the position you wanted is no longer available.

But it was not just Robinhood, other stock trading services like TD Ameritrade are also in on it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on January 29, 2021, 08:08:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 08:05:03 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 29, 2021, 07:52:55 PM
Can't you buy stocks a zillion ways? What's the big deal about this app?

You need to ask someone who buys into the "Robinhood protecting their hedge fund buddies" narrative.

Hey it doesn't matter why they were doing it. Freezing trading in a stock is one thing, only allowing sales and not buys is market manipulation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Larch on January 29, 2021, 08:10:47 PM
The GME - Wall Street Bets sea shanty, meme crossover of the year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rejpDqQUcV0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rejpDqQUcV0)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 08:20:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 29, 2021, 08:08:27 PM
Hey it doesn't matter why they were doing it. Freezing trading in a stock is one thing, only allowing sales and not buys is market manipulation.

Isn't the point of market manipulation usually to profit somehow?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 29, 2021, 08:38:01 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 29, 2021, 08:10:47 PM
The GME - Wall Street Bets sea shanty, meme crossover of the year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rejpDqQUcV0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rejpDqQUcV0)

I posted that upthread.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 29, 2021, 08:38:49 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 29, 2021, 08:08:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 08:05:03 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 29, 2021, 07:52:55 PM
Can't you buy stocks a zillion ways? What's the big deal about this app?

You need to ask someone who buys into the "Robinhood protecting their hedge fund buddies" narrative.

Hey it doesn't matter why they were doing it. Freezing trading in a stock is one thing, only allowing sales and not buys is market manipulation.

It absolutely does matter why they were doing it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on January 29, 2021, 09:27:50 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 29, 2021, 05:51:00 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 29, 2021, 04:20:24 PM
What are the mechanisms to deal with the voting rights associated to the stock being loaned-sold-bought-resold?

The simple answer is that if a share has voting rights attached to it, whoever is the owner of the share has the rights attached to the share.  I am not sure what you are asking.

Who's the owner of a loaned share that has been sold & resold.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 09:32:05 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 29, 2021, 09:27:50 PM
Who's the owner of a loaned share that has been sold & resold.

My guess would be the person who bought it from the shortseller, but that's just a guess.  I do have shares that have been lent, but I haven't paid attention to voting rights and proxy votes in years.  Last one that piqued my interest was Elon's quadrillion dollar bonus only salary proposal, which I voted for and which got shot down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 09:35:54 PM
Man, I wish reddit would stick it to the man with one of the stocks I own.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 09:50:35 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgfwa0WV1Jo

Discussion of why Robin Hood suspended/limited trading related to clearing and margin requirements blah blah.  I don't really understand it and I doubt many people will pay attention to it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on January 29, 2021, 09:56:32 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 09:35:54 PM
Man, I wish reddit would stick it to the man with one of the stocks I own.  :(

Pick worse stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Larch on January 29, 2021, 10:13:28 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 29, 2021, 08:38:01 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 29, 2021, 08:10:47 PM
The GME - Wall Street Bets sea shanty, meme crossover of the year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rejpDqQUcV0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rejpDqQUcV0)

I posted that upthread.  :P

Not clear enough and too long ago.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 10:17:29 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 29, 2021, 09:56:32 PM
Pick worse stocks.

I had the same thought.  I need to buy more crummy overvalued stocks that short sellers are going to attack.

Though to be fair Tesla has been a consistent short seller target.  Maybe I already mentioned this, but folks on CNBC call Tesla "the wood chipper" because of how it eats short sellers up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 29, 2021, 10:19:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 09:50:35 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgfwa0WV1Jo

Discussion of why Robin Hood suspended/limited trading related to clearing and margin requirements blah blah.  I don't really understand it and I doubt many people will pay attention to it.

Nah, most are too busy posting memes that haven't been fact-checked and are too eager to attack RH et al as manipulating the market without having much evidence either way.

The lawsuit has been filed. My prediction? It will go nowhere.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 29, 2021, 10:27:06 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 29, 2021, 09:27:50 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 29, 2021, 05:51:00 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 29, 2021, 04:20:24 PM
What are the mechanisms to deal with the voting rights associated to the stock being loaned-sold-bought-resold?

The simple answer is that if a share has voting rights attached to it, whoever is the owner of the share has the rights attached to the share.  I am not sure what you are asking.

Who's the owner of a loaned share that has been sold & resold.

I see.  It isn't actually a loan - its called a borrowed share in the sense that shares need to be given back (but obviously not exactly the ones that were given since those shares were sold by the short seller).   So when the short seller sells them, the buyer of those shares now owns all the rights attached to those shares. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 29, 2021, 10:34:31 PM
I'm wondering about another thing about short selling.  Let's say Shitco has 1000 shares outstanding, and I own one of it.  I lend it to a short seller, then I buy it back from him, and then I lend it back to him again, and then buy it back again.  Let's say we repeat the cycle 1998 more times.  Am I now long for 200% of the company?  What does the short seller do when the time comes to give me back all the stock I lent him (I'm not selling it, I have a sentimental attachment to Shitco).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 10:52:58 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 29, 2021, 10:19:16 PM
Nah, most are too busy posting memes that haven't been fact-checked and are too eager to attack RH et al as manipulating the market without having much evidence either way.

Mainstream media fake news.  Covering up for their corporate buddies.

AOC is going to be a treat at the hearings.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on January 29, 2021, 11:16:24 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 09:35:54 PM
Man, I wish reddit would stick it to the man with one of the stocks I own.  :(

Spend time on reddit. You would have direct access to thousands of buyers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on January 29, 2021, 11:22:40 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 29, 2021, 10:19:16 PM
The lawsuit has been filed. My prediction? It will go nowhere.

If RH did nothing wrong then that is how it should go. We'll see.

Quote from: Habbaku on January 29, 2021, 08:38:49 PM
It absolutely does matter why they were doing it.

But why though? I mean we have all these people saying investors shouldn't be able to buy stocks because um...they use reddit. That doesn't make much sense to me. Either individual investors can buy whatever stock they want or they cant.

Neither does a platform should be able to take a captive part of the market and dictate what stocks they can buy.

Were these hedge fund investors blowing billions on shitty Wallstreet bets, and now asking for tax dollar bailout, are they restricted in what they can do?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 29, 2021, 11:46:04 PM
Tax dollar bailout?  Where did that come from?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on January 30, 2021, 12:36:51 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 29, 2021, 10:27:06 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 29, 2021, 09:27:50 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 29, 2021, 05:51:00 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 29, 2021, 04:20:24 PM
What are the mechanisms to deal with the voting rights associated to the stock being loaned-sold-bought-resold?

The simple answer is that if a share has voting rights attached to it, whoever is the owner of the share has the rights attached to the share.  I am not sure what you are asking.

Who's the owner of a loaned share that has been sold & resold.

I see.  It isn't actually a loan - its called a borrowed share in the sense that shares need to be given back (but obviously not exactly the ones that were given since those shares were sold by the short seller).   So when the short seller sells them, the buyer of those shares now owns all the rights attached to those shares.

Ah. Thank you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 02:33:38 AM
OK so Robinhood allegedly was near bankruptcy and that's why they fucked their clients. Fine.

What about all the other platforms who did the same, though?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 02:41:04 AM
I haven't seen anything about bankruptcy.  What I've seen is about broker/dealer capital requirements.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 03:36:43 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 02:41:04 AM
I haven't seen anything about bankruptcy.  What I've seen is about broker/dealer capital requirements.

Fine, that then. Was that the same for all other brokerages refusing but orders for a few specific stocks?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 03:50:15 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 03:36:43 AM
Fine, that then. Was that the same for all other brokerages refusing but orders for a few specific stocks?

Haven't seen anything about the other brokerages.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 04:54:53 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 03:50:15 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 03:36:43 AM
Fine, that then. Was that the same for all other brokerages refusing but orders for a few specific stocks?

Haven't seen anything about the other brokerages.

So would you agree that the alleged troubles of Robinhood even if true are not sufficient to rule out the narrative that these brokerages restricted service to their retail clients in the financial interest of their owners/institutional business partners?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 05:11:51 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 04:54:53 AM
So would you agree that the alleged troubles of Robinhood even if true are not sufficient to rule out the narrative that these brokerages restricted service to their retail clients in the financial interest of their owners/institutional business partners?

I don't know what you mean institutional business partners.  If you mean the evil short hedge funds, I haven't seen anything that suggests Robinhood did this as  favor to them, or got some kind of bribe for doing it.

My understanding is they did it to maintain regulatory compliance.  So yes, to the extent that not paying a fine is in one's financial self interest, I imagine it was.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 05:50:13 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 05:11:51 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 04:54:53 AM
So would you agree that the alleged troubles of Robinhood even if true are not sufficient to rule out the narrative that these brokerages restricted service to their retail clients in the financial interest of their owners/institutional business partners?

I don't know what you mean institutional business partners.  If you mean the evil short hedge funds, I haven't seen anything that suggests Robinhood did this as  favor to them, or got some kind of bribe for doing it.

My understanding is they did it to maintain regulatory compliance.  So yes, to the extent that not paying a fine is in one's financial self interest, I imagine it was.

You keep returning to Robinhood's individual case despite we have established they might have a genuine reason to sodomise their clients' backsides. What I pointed out that they were far from the only firm doing this so Robinhood's individual predicament is surely not explanation enough for this limiting action across multiple brokerages.

However, if you do insist on pretending it was just Robinhood, there are some easily traceable links which while do not prove anything, they sure should raise some questions.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/29/robinhood-citadel-gamestop-reddit/

QuoteThe Silicon Valley-based trading platform makes a large amount of revenue from Citadel Securities, a Chicago-based financial-services giant. Robinhood's regulatory filings show the company charges large investment firms called "market makers" fees to access real-time information about which stocks its users are buying and selling, a practice some regulators and industry watchers have seen as a potential conflict of interest.

Robinhood routes more than half of its customer orders to Citadel, by far its largest market-making partner by volume, Robinhood disclosures show. The app also works with Virtu, G1 Execution Services, Wolverine and Two Sigma.

QuoteCitadel LLC, a separate hedge fund also founded by Griffin, recently helped bail out Melvin Capital, a fund that sank 30 percent in a few weeks after shorting GameStop.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 06:09:16 AM
I keep returning to Robinhood's case because that's what I've seen interviews and articles about.  I haven't seen anything about TD Ameritrade, nor Etrade.

Yes, Citadel is a market maker and gives a kickback for each order they route to them.  That's Robinhood's entire business model.  They are commission free because they get a cut of Citadel's market making activity.

Their cut does not increase when they route fewer trades to Citadel.

Citadel has denied requesting Robinhood to halt trading on WSB stocks.  Citadel also would not make more money if Robinhood routed fewer trades to them.

Citadel's bailout of Melvin does raise the appearance of conflict of interest between itself and Melvin (not, we should note, between Robinhood and Melvin).  However, Melvin closed out all its shorts very early in this process.  Maybe Monday?  Maybe Tuesday?  Anyway, it was before Robinhood halted trading.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 07:15:21 AM
Fine, Robinhood is all innocent in this because a) they say they had no ulterior motives and b) they say they were forced to restrict people due to these whatever circumstances they listed.

But as I said, this was more widespread than Robinhood and as you pointed out nobody else seem to have provided an explanation, so dismissing the claim of wrongdoing just because one accused actor gives verbal assurances that they did not do this to benefit themselves or other institutions financially, seem quite lenient.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 10:19:00 AM
If you think what I'm saying is incorrect, why do you have to mischaracterize it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 30, 2021, 10:24:41 AM
A valid reason to restrict access to Gamestop:

Since Wednesday, every day, at certain points I've been unable to log into my Ally account. On Friday, there was a point that I could log into my account, but the whole stock trading system went down.

On Vanguard, where I had to call to place a type of order, I spent an hour and forty minutes on hold, before hanging up.

For actual investors and not jackasses wanting to play the Gamestop lottery game, Gamestop is making it very tough to access financial services. They have a legitimate grievance. I'm really annoyed by it and I'm one of the fucktards only interested in playing the Gamestop lottery game.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 11:16:35 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 30, 2021, 10:24:41 AM
A valid reason to restrict access to Gamestop:

Since Wednesday, every day, at certain points I've been unable to log into my Ally account. On Friday, there was a point that I could log into my account, but the whole stock trading system went down.

On Vanguard, where I had to call to place a type of order, I spent an hour and forty minutes on hold, before hanging up.

For actual investors and not jackasses wanting to play the Gamestop lottery game, Gamestop is making it very tough to access financial services. They have a legitimate grievance. I'm really annoyed by it and I'm one of the fucktards only interested in playing the Gamestop lottery game.

That's actually a complaint fairly in line with your corona hiking shtick, bravo.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 12:21:46 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 02:29:18 PM
Smaller investors are legally excluded from forming hedge funds. If they folks on reddit were able to meet the wealth requirements to form a hedge fund, they could have done so and run up the price of Gamestop with their collective money, and it would all be legal (assuming of course that they are really driving Gamestop, which I don't believe).

That is not a sound assumption. Hedge funds and their traders are subject to regulations and funds owe contractual and other legal duties to investors. For example, hedge funds cannot (as one of the reddit leaders did) follow a trading strategy with the express objective of losing money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 30, 2021, 12:29:45 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 12:21:46 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 29, 2021, 02:29:18 PM
Smaller investors are legally excluded from forming hedge funds. If they folks on reddit were able to meet the wealth requirements to form a hedge fund, they could have done so and run up the price of Gamestop with their collective money, and it would all be legal (assuming of course that they are really driving Gamestop, which I don't believe).

That is not a sound assumption. Hedge funds and their traders are subject to regulations and funds owe contractual and other legal duties to investors. For example, hedge funds cannot (as one of the reddit leaders did) follow a trading strategy with the express objective of losing money.

One dude claiming (almost certainly falsely) he was trying to lose money is a red herring.

Reality:
Wealthy investors can form a hedge fund that pools their money, and buys up a stock to force a short squeeze and then sell.

Small investors are prohibited from joining a hedge fund, and if they try to coordinate their activity on reddit so that their collective money is used to buy up a stock to force a short squeeze and then sell, they face sanctions for manipulating the market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 01:25:23 PM
Reality is that any hedge fund who tried to pull what the subredditers did here would get hit with multiple lawsuits, face gov't investigations for market manipulation and would be dragged before Congress.

I can't think of an example of a hedge fund trying something like this.  The closest analogy I can think of was the Hunt Brothers corner, which resulted in them sustaining terrible losses, and SEC investigation, and eventually bankruptcy from the follow on civll suits.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 01:43:48 PM
For what's worth, Jim Cramer from 2006 touches on how as a hedge fund manager he'd prioritise quarterly results over sticking to the rules: https://youtu.be/QFfjX8dW-QQ?t=554 Specifically he explains it is not allowed to "foment" but it is profitable and the SEC won't enforce it anyhow.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 01:50:25 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 01:25:23 PM
Reality is that any hedge fund who tried to pull what the subredditers did here would get hit with multiple lawsuits, face gov't investigations for market manipulation and would be dragged before Congress.

I can't think of an example of a hedge fund trying something like this.  The closest analogy I can think of was the Hunt Brothers corner, which resulted in them sustaining terrible losses, and SEC investigation, and eventually bankruptcy from the follow on civll suits.

Is it against SEC rules to buy lots and lots of a stock while it is being shorted?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 01:52:49 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 29, 2021, 01:40:20 PM
Stock shorts can harm companies who might otherwise seek to finance changes to their business through equity offerings.

Equity capitalization is either done through a formal offering process or through a private placement.  The pricing is set based on the buy interest in the market - if the shares are priced artificially low, that should drive buy interest, not suppress it.

QuoteNot only does it look different.  It is different.  The Lilliputians are the market and the folks who are used to the concentration of information in the hands of the few are feeling the effects.

The "market" is an abstraction.  The Lilliputians are actual identifiable people that are involved in real conduct that if done by people on Street would lilkely end with people banned from the industry or put into handcuffs.

This has nothing to do with concentration of information. The information about Gamestop is well known and public. Trading activity in the stock is also public and known.

QuoteHere is the big disconnect.  Now we are try to judge what a stock is really worth, when has that been a thing in recent years.

Gamestop is not Tesla.  One can argue if the stock is worth $0 or $5 or $10 but is it NOT $500.  Gamestop is not a $30 billion business - it has steadily declined in revenue for a decade and has a solid track record for hundreds of millions of negative net income. Derrida himself would not argue for a reality so indeterminate that it could give Gamestop a $30 billion valuation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 02:10:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 01:50:25 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 01:25:23 PM
Reality is that any hedge fund who tried to pull what the subredditers did here would get hit with multiple lawsuits, face gov't investigations for market manipulation and would be dragged before Congress.

I can't think of an example of a hedge fund trying something like this.  The closest analogy I can think of was the Hunt Brothers corner, which resulted in them sustaining terrible losses, and SEC investigation, and eventually bankruptcy from the follow on civll suits.

Is it against SEC rules to buy lots and lots of a stock while it is being shorted?

Not in itself, it depends on context

The SEC defines manipulation as including  "conduct designed to deceive or defraud investors by controlling or artificially affecting the
price of securities" or "intentional interference with the free forces of supply anddemand" and it includes "practices  that are intended to mislead investors by artificially affecting market activity." and the courts have held that trading activity alone can constitute manipulation. 

So it is going to depend on the reasons  and purpose for the trading activity and the methods used.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 02:16:02 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 02:10:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 30, 2021, 01:50:25 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 01:25:23 PM
Reality is that any hedge fund who tried to pull what the subredditers did here would get hit with multiple lawsuits, face gov't investigations for market manipulation and would be dragged before Congress.

I can't think of an example of a hedge fund trying something like this.  The closest analogy I can think of was the Hunt Brothers corner, which resulted in them sustaining terrible losses, and SEC investigation, and eventually bankruptcy from the follow on civll suits.

Is it against SEC rules to buy lots and lots of a stock while it is being shorted?

Not in itself, it depends on context

The SEC defines manipulation as including  "conduct designed to deceive or defraud investors by controlling or artificially affecting the
price of securities" or "intentional interference with the free forces of supply anddemand" and it includes "practices  that are intended to mislead investors by artificially affecting market activity." and the courts have held that trading activity alone can constitute manipulation. 

So it is going to depend on the reasons  and purpose for the trading activity and the methods used.

See these are typically the kind of rules that are made as a tool in the game - obviously these things are done all the time (if nothing else just check out the quote from Cramer I linked - he talks about this very stuff as par de course), and you only get caught by it if you are not part of the circle or if you really overreach.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 02:16:43 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 01:43:48 PM
For what's worth, Jim Cramer from 2006 touches on how as a hedge fund manager he'd prioritise quarterly results over sticking to the rules: https://youtu.be/QFfjX8dW-QQ?t=554 Specifically he explains it is not allowed to "foment" but it is profitable and the SEC won't enforce it anyhow.

There is a lot of bad behavior on Wall Street.  I'm not defending the conduct of hedge funds generally.  I'm also not shedding many tears for the pro short sellers that are taking hits, that's part of the risk one takes.  Never take a position if you can't afford to deal with a loss.

But from a market integrity standpoint, it is not a good thing if internet vigilantes can easily manipulate prices of targeted stocks.  I think that is an uncontroversial point but it's one that risks being lost in the populist narrative and the undeniable pleasures of schadenfreude at the expense of hedge fund shorts.

Hedge funds definitely need more regulation especially given the relative pass they got over the last 4 years. But regulation needs to be done according to rules enforced by authorized regulators, not roving bands of reddit vigilantes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 02:22:38 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 30, 2021, 02:16:02 PM
See these are typically the kind of rules that are made as a tool in the game - obviously these things are done all the time (if nothing else just check out the quote from Cramer I linked - he talks about this very stuff as par de course), and you only get caught by it if you are not part of the circle or if you really overreach.

The US isn't Orban's Hungary, at least not yet.  The SEC and the US attorneys in NY can be accused of many shortcomings, but over-solicitude to the powerful on Wall Street is not one of them.  The enforcement guys love hunting big scalps; big cases can make careers. One the biggest manipulation cases in recent years has been the LIBOR benchmark cases; the defendant firms are like a roll call of the Street elite.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 30, 2021, 02:24:08 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 02:22:38 PM
The US isn't Orban's Hungary, at least not yet.  The SEC and the US attorneys in NY can be accused of many shortcomings, but over-solicitude to the powerful on Wall Street is not one of them.  The enforcement guys love hunting big scalps; big cases can make careers. One the biggest manipulation cases in recent years has been the LIBOR benchmark cases; the defendant firms are like a roll call of the Street elite.
I always think of Oliver Bullough's line that from an anti-corruption/anti-dodginess perspective the best situation would be UK style transparency and US style enforcement. One day, hopefully.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 30, 2021, 02:27:20 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 02:16:43 PMHedge funds definitely need more regulation especially given the relative pass they got over the last 4 years. But regulation needs to be done according to rules enforced by authorized regulators, not roving bands of reddit vigilantes.

Sure. But the growth of vigilantism in so many spheres of our society should alert us to a crisis of confidence about the capacity of our institutions to produce just outcomes, and to punish adequately certain kinds of people - who always seem to be winning, regardless of the sort of behavior they engage in.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 30, 2021, 03:20:00 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 30, 2021, 01:25:23 PM
Reality is that any hedge fund who tried to pull what the subredditers did here would get hit with multiple lawsuits, face gov't investigations for market manipulation and would be dragged before Congress.

I can't think of an example of a hedge fund trying something like this.  The closest analogy I can think of was the Hunt Brothers corner, which resulted in them sustaining terrible losses, and SEC investigation, and eventually bankruptcy from the follow on civll suits.

A hedge fund would never do what subredditers did because it is epically stupid. But I'll consider you to be conceding:

-rich people can pool their money in hedge funds, poor people can not,
-it is not explicitly illegal for a hedge fund to try to squeeze shorts, while it is illegal for redditers to organize collectively to do the same.

Which seems to me to be a way the rules really are tilted toward the wealthy. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 30, 2021, 05:13:24 PM
Which Vaux - Vaux Breweries. Don't expect it to be well known outside of The North. Just one example of stock market games screwing over a viable business that happens to be close to me. Plenty of more well known and objectively dodgier examples out there.


Nothing illegal is happening on reddit.
"I've done my research and figured out gamestop is actually a great buy because it's massively over leveraged by short sellers, if it reaches a certain level the price will shoot up and short sellers will be fucked. Here's details of my reasoning. "
Is the kind of stuff tonnes of websites do. This has been brewing for a long time (though I and most of the world only became aware a week ago). It has only become a problem suddenly when it is working.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 31, 2021, 12:19:05 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 30, 2021, 03:20:00 PM
-rich people can pool their money in hedge funds, poor people can not,
-it is not explicitly illegal for a hedge fund to try to squeeze shorts, while it is illegal for redditers to organize collectively to do the same.

Which seems to me to be a way the rules really are tilted toward the wealthy. :(

Poor people are shut out of the market entirely - 45% of Americans own no stock and many of those that do own small, employer controlled 401K plans. This isn't about poor vs rich b/c the poor arent even in the conversation.

For the relatively affluent minority of Americans that do have non-de minimus stock holdings over which they can exercise meaningful control, it is arguably a golden age. Individual investors can trade a vast array of products unimaginable a few decades ago, quickly and conveniently, and without commissions. They even can access hedge and PE funds indirectly through fund-of-fund type vehicles but why would they want to?  The alternative fund industry does not generate alpha, at best it can claim to some degree of non-correlated beta.  An individual investor will almost always be best off buying Vanguard-type funds and ETFs with a standard asset allocation, something that is pretty cheap and easy to do.  That will perform as well over the long haul  as 99+% of the actively managed strategies out there.

What the WSB sub is doing has nothing to do with democratization or finance of evening the playing field.  It is as many have noted just the gamification of finance, applying to the stock marked the tropes, vocabulary and tactics of mobile gaming and reddit "culture". The point is not to do what real hedge funds do, the point is to thumb one's noses at hedge funds and burn a few greedy Wall Street fingers.  The point is fun, the fun of the old medieval carnivals.  And it is fun; I read enough of the sub to see that.  But there are real world consequences to this brand of fun.

If you really wanted to democratize finance you'd have to find a way to give everything HFT tech or get seats on commodities trading exchanges or give everyone their own team of 10 math and compsci PhDs to create investing algos for them.  To say the highly capitalized players have an advantage over ordinary Joes in finance is just to say we live in a capitalist system.  An ordinary Joe that decides he wants to start up his own chip foundry is going to find quickly he is not on a level playing field with Intel and Samsung.  You don't fix that problem by giving Joe the right to commit arson against the competing foundries.

If you think capitalism produces inequitable results, the two options are to abandon it for socialism or keep the system but use the power of the state for redistribution.  Anything else is a mirage.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 12:53:56 AM
QuoteThe company was founded in 1806 by Cuthbert Vaux (1779–1850),[1] producing several popular brands including Vaux's Stout, Maxim, Double Maxim, and Sunderland Best Bitter. For nearly 200 years, it was a major employer in the city.[2]

In 1972, the company bought the Sheffield-based Wards Brewing Company, which it retained as a separate subsidiary.[3] In 1981, it attempted to establish a foothold in the U.S. with the purchase of the New York-based family-owned Fred Koch Brewery.[4]

By the 1990s, the Vaux Group had expanded into hotels. Despite the brewing business being profitable and an offer to buy it having been received from management, in March 1999 the Board accepted the advice of the Corporate Financier, BT Alex. Brown, a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank, and decided to close both breweries.[3] This caused Chairman Sir Paul Nicholson, who disagreed with the closure decision, to resign.[5] The company changed its name to Swallow Group plc, and in July sold its tenanted pub estate to a client of the corporate financier, concentrating on Swallow Hotels business and incorporating the former Vaux-managed pub estate under the Swallow Inns & Restaurants brand.[6]

The company was taken over by Whitbread in 2000, following which most of the hotels were rebranded as Marriott and the larger pubs were brought under other national brands, such as Brewers Fayre.[7] Later, 10 hotels unsuitable for Marriott conversions were sold off, forming the nucleus of the current Swallow Hotels chain.[8]

In 2000, two former Vaux directors and the former head brewer formed what is now called the Maxim Brewery, buying some of the beer brands and recipes. They resurrected the former Samson and Double Maxim lines.[9]

The Sunderland brewery was later vacated and the buildings were demolished for redevelopment.[10] In November 2014 a partnership between Carillion and Sunderland City Council was formed to redevelop the site.[11] However, Carillion collapsed into liquidation in January 2018. After a six-month delay, redevelopment resumed in July 2018, with Tolent as the main contractor.[12]

In April 2019 a Sunderland-based company announced their intention to resurrect the Vaux brand.[13] In March 2020 the new Vaux Brewery announced plans to open a new brewery and bar in the centre of Sunderland. [14][15]

From Wiki.  I don't see stock market shenanigans here.  I see a contested decision to close two breweries.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 01:11:23 AM
Here's what I would do if I were the SEC.

Identify the WSB instigators.  Announce that any instigator who sells shares in the next week will be charged with pumping and dumping.  The week gives bandwagoners a chance to unload their worthless shares before the instigators have a chance to.

After that they are on their own.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 01:22:55 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NksiQJY7WU

TD Ameritrade.  Based on this it seems they didn't ban trading in general, only selling naked calls.

Seppuku will be pleased.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 04:09:32 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 01:11:23 AM
Here's what I would do if I were the SEC.

Identify the WSB instigators.  Announce that any instigator who sells shares in the next week will be charged with pumping and dumping.  The week gives bandwagoners a chance to unload their worthless shares before the instigators have a chance to.

After that they are on their own.

:huh:

What they do on WSB is telling each other to buy and hold and explaining its because they believe shorts will have to cover and they price will skyrocket. There should might as well be a blanket ban on recommending stock and option purchases on the Internet because otherwise any specific attempt to try and regulate online stock discussion and coordination will be an even more rubbery and abusable set of rules than the apparently honorable SEC is using for regular stockmarket rules.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 04:38:52 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 04:09:32 AM
:huh:

What they do on WSB is telling each other to buy and hold and explaining its because they believe shorts will have to cover and they price will skyrocket. There should might as well be a blanket ban on recommending stock and option purchases on the Internet because otherwise any specific attempt to try and regulate online stock discussion and coordination will be an even more rubbery and abusable set of rules than the apparently honorable SEC is using for regular stockmarket rules.

If they hold their shares it would be a moot point, wouldn't it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:17:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 04:38:52 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 04:09:32 AM
:huh:

What they do on WSB is telling each other to buy and hold and explaining its because they believe shorts will have to cover and they price will skyrocket. There should might as well be a blanket ban on recommending stock and option purchases on the Internet because otherwise any specific attempt to try and regulate online stock discussion and coordination will be an even more rubbery and abusable set of rules than the apparently honorable SEC is using for regular stockmarket rules.

If they hold their shares it would be a moot point, wouldn't it?

You have lost me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:24:05 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:17:56 AM
You have lost me.

I said the SEC should require the instigators to hold their shares for a week.  If in fact they do want to hold their shares until the short squeeze forces the hedge funds to buy shares at infinity plus one, they have presumably abided by my hypothetical SEC requirement, and there is no punishment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:37:45 AM
Joan, I've been rolling your gamma squeeze over in my mind.

Would you agree that high call volume can exacerbate a price rise but not cause one by itself?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:42:30 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:24:05 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:17:56 AM
You have lost me.

I said the SEC should require the instigators to hold their shares for a week.  If in fact they do want to hold their shares until the short squeeze forces the hedge funds to buy shares at infinity plus one, they have presumably abided by my hypothetical SEC requirement, and there is no punishment.

Ah right. But you can't realistically police Internet commenters, unless you are China.

One "nice" thing about this whole narrative from the Wall Street side is that the discussion is about "is it ok for non-guild people to use the tools of the guild?" instead of for example "if it was not allowed to short a company for more than there are shares in circulation, this would have never happened in the first place".

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 31, 2021, 06:57:02 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:24:05 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:17:56 AM
You have lost me.

I said the SEC should require the instigators to hold their shares for a week.  If in fact they do want to hold their shares until the short squeeze forces the hedge funds to buy shares at infinity plus one, they have presumably abided by my hypothetical SEC requirement, and there is no punishment.
The instigator is well known, I can't remember where but there was a mainstream media piece about him a few days ago, some guy in Boston, and is holding.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:01:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:42:30 AM
Ah right. But you can't realistically police Internet commenters, unless you are China.

One "nice" thing about this whole narrative from the Wall Street side is that the discussion is about "is it ok for non-guild people to use the tools of the guild?" instead of for example "if it was not allowed to short a company for more than there are shares in circulation, this would have never happened in the first place".

But it did happen with other companies.  I heard on CNBC that short interest in AMC is comparatively small.  Have you heard that other companies besides Gamestop are shorted more than 100% of float?

"This whole narrative from the Wall street side" is something that I have not encountered.  Where are you picking this up from? 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 08:13:15 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:01:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:42:30 AM
Ah right. But you can't realistically police Internet commenters, unless you are China.

One "nice" thing about this whole narrative from the Wall Street side is that the discussion is about "is it ok for non-guild people to use the tools of the guild?" instead of for example "if it was not allowed to short a company for more than there are shares in circulation, this would have never happened in the first place".

But it did happen with other companies.  I heard on CNBC that short interest in AMC is comparatively small.  Have you heard that other companies besides Gamestop are shorted more than 100% of float?

"This whole narrative from the Wall street side" is something that I have not encountered.  Where are you picking this up from?

Are you saying that discussion (and not just from the institutional side in fact) has not concentrated talking about the risks of Reddit users coordinating investment decisions, as opposed to the risks of over-leveraged short positions?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 31, 2021, 12:52:31 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:37:45 AM
Joan, I've been rolling your gamma squeeze over in my mind.

Would you agree that high call volume can exacerbate a price rise but not cause one by itself?

There would need to be some movement in the underlying stock, from looking at the wsb sub people were buying the stock as well as the options. When the stock gets close to the strike prices of the options the squeeze is on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 02:49:51 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 08:13:15 AM
Are you saying that discussion (and not just from the institutional side in fact) has not concentrated talking about the risks of Reddit users coordinating investment decisions, as opposed to the risks of over-leveraged short positions?

I have seen a fair bit of discussion of the high amount of short selling of Gamestop.  BTW, AFAICT leverage doesn't enter into it.

I've seen plenty of talk about the risks *to* reddit users of buying worthless shares.  What I have not seen is anything approximating "this whole narrative from the Wall Street side about non-guild people using guild tools."

So now that I answered your questions maybe you can answer mine and tell me where you're getting that from.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 03:18:51 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 02:49:51 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 08:13:15 AM
Are you saying that discussion (and not just from the institutional side in fact) has not concentrated talking about the risks of Reddit users coordinating investment decisions, as opposed to the risks of over-leveraged short positions?

I have seen a fair bit of discussion of the high amount of short selling of Gamestop.  BTW, AFAICT leverage doesn't enter into it.

I've seen plenty of talk about the risks *to* reddit users of buying worthless shares.  What I have not seen is anything approximating "this whole narrative from the Wall Street side about non-guild people using guild tools."

So now that I answered your questions maybe you can answer mine and tell me where you're getting that from.

Dude, I don't get why you have to be such a white knight to the sanctity of the stock market. I am pretty sure you listened to the experts and most of the media at the onset of this before the more popular "people screwing Wall Street" story overtook the latter.

But let me just get you one example in particular, where the Nasdaq chief declared they might stop trading stocks based on social media chatter.


https://www.nme.com/news/gaming-news/authorities-examine-role-reddit-gamestop-shares-saga-2866973

Quote

Nasdaq chief Adena Friedman said in a statement obtained by Sky News: "If we see a significant rise in the chatter on social media ... and we also match that up against unusual trading activity, we will potentially halt that stock to allow ourselves to investigate the situation."



Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 03:39:16 PM
Yeah, I don't get how you get from there to the guild non-guild business. 

The white knight comment reinforces my conviction that this whole affair is much less about facts and logic as it is about narratives and emotion and which side you're on.  I care about facts and logic.  Other than facts and logic I don't have a dog in this fight.  When somebodysays Robinhood halted trading because they're trying to help out their hedge fund buddies, it sets off a red flag for me because it makes no fucking sense.  So I examine the facts and try to determine what's really going on.  If presenting these facts makes me against the little guy, an enemy of people power and on the side of teh evil hedge funds, so be it.

If you want to discuss facts I'm happy to do so.  If you want to discuss which side people are on, you'll need to find someone else.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 03:44:13 PM
I have never read a stock market related comment from you here over the years that wasn't along the line of "this is fine / the rules are right". I very much doubt you are as fact-based on this topic as you claim.

But I agree we are not going to convince each other.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 31, 2021, 03:47:14 PM
Have you considered that Yi has made those comments because "[it was] fine / the rules [were] right"? I don't see how his not posting negatively means he's not fact-based.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 03:56:08 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 31, 2021, 03:47:14 PM
Have you considered that Yi has made those comments because "[it was] fine / the rules [were] right"? I don't see how his not posting negatively means he's not fact-based.

I have considered it and found him to be wrong.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 31, 2021, 04:03:00 PM
Cool. So you've considered it, but instead of actually tackling that argument, you've decided to just accuse him of white knighting and dismissing everything else out of hand. Very cool.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 31, 2021, 04:15:45 PM
FT reports the the big banks are already deploying algorithms based on automated processing of internet chatter. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 31, 2021, 04:20:44 PM
Today the redditers are championing the cause of a small weak company.
But the same techniques could just as easily be used for other purposes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 31, 2021, 04:24:17 PM
Which they have been for years.
Media has given stock recommendations for as long as there has been stocks and media.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:02:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 31, 2021, 04:24:17 PM
Which they have been for years.
Media has given stock recommendations for as long as there has been stocks and media.

Various actors have been giving stock recommendations since forever based on intrinsic value.  (Or magical lines on graphs, which is more recent.) This is something new.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 05:14:50 PM
Facts and logic seem a bizarre basis for a discussion of the stock market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 05:15:20 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 31, 2021, 04:20:44 PM
Today the redditers are championing the cause of a small weak company.
But the same techniques could just as easily be used for other purposes.

It has already been the case for Tesla, then before Bitcoin. But that didn't cause unexpected loss of billions to influential people so there was no wailing.

There was also little to no attention for example, when somebody managed to bribe somebody in the Trump administration to announce granting a loan to Kodak to produce Covid-19 medicine, which of course came to nothing and their stock price made a similar rollercoaster like with Gamestop. Then again this was old school fake news spreading agreed behind close doors by a few people.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/04/why-kodak-stock-skyrocketed-75-in-2020/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:21:33 PM
Big name shorts have been crushed on Tesla.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:37:34 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 05:14:50 PM
Facts and logic seem a bizarre basis for a discussion of the stock market.

I'll bite.  Why?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 31, 2021, 05:53:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:02:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 31, 2021, 04:24:17 PM
Which they have been for years.
Media has given stock recommendations for as long as there has been stocks and media.

Various actors have been giving stock recommendations since forever based on intrinsic value.  (Or magical lines on graphs, which is more recent.) This is something new.
Not really.
It wasn't just a case of a sub deciding one day to spam gamestop for a laugh.
Gamestop and its overly shorted potential has been talked about and recommended on wsb for months.
Many of the others finding themselves grouped in with gamestop have been recommended by more mainstream stock sites for a long while.
There is absolutely nothing illegal going on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:56:22 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 31, 2021, 05:53:01 PM
Not really.
It wasn't just a case of a sub deciding one day to spam gamestop for a laugh.
Gamestop and its overly shorted potential has been talked about and recommended on wsb for months.
There is absolutely nothing illegal going on.

Really.  Reccomending you buy a stock to bid up the price to induce a short squeeze is not something that has been done to the best of my knowledge.  If you know otherwise, please inform me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:00:11 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:56:22 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 31, 2021, 05:53:01 PM
Not really.
It wasn't just a case of a sub deciding one day to spam gamestop for a laugh.
Gamestop and its overly shorted potential has been talked about and recommended on wsb for months.
There is absolutely nothing illegal going on.

Really.  Reccomending you buy a stock to bid up the price to induce a short squeeze is not something that has been done to the best of my knowledge.  If you know otherwise, please inform me.

Has not been successfully done on an Internet forum before? Probably. But it has been done via other means surely, as in, agreed between investors/fund managers/whatever. And no, I don't have any proof and won't be looking for one.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:02:05 PM
But if you say it surely has been done that's good enough.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 06:26:54 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:37:34 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 05:14:50 PM
Facts and logic seem a bizarre basis for a discussion of the stock market.

I'll bite.  Why?

For two reasons:

1) Generally, the stock market's whole schtick is greed, fear, exhilaration. These are powerful emotions. We harness facts to these emotions, not the reverse. It therefore shouldn't be surprising that emotions play a very important role in assessing how it operates.

2) Specifically, because here, the issue is divided on the very notion of what ought to be. Stating what the rules are is an important element in any discussion, but the crux of the matter is always what they mean, and that discussion itself is almost impossible to disentangle from what we think they ought to achieve. And in that regard, we can only work through metaphors.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:34:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:02:05 PM
But if you say it surely has been done that's good enough.

Are we really arguing that all short squeezes of history until now had been achieved by single actors with them never informing anyone of their intentions or actions? Really?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 31, 2021, 06:39:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:37:34 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 05:14:50 PM
Facts and logic seem a bizarre basis for a discussion of the stock market.

I'll bite.  Why?
Why, Yi, why?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:46:03 PM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2021, 06:34:29 PM
Are we really arguing that all short squeezes of history until now had been achieved by single actors with them never informing anyone of their intentions or actions? Really?

Single actors has not been brought up.  Straw man.

I've never been made aware of some individual or group or fund announcing they were going to bid up shares in an effort to induce a short squeeze and inviting others to join.  Do I *know* this has never happened?  I do not.  I have not analyzed 100% of communication regarding the stock market since the invention of the Dutch East Indies Company.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 06:51:04 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 31, 2021, 06:39:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:37:34 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 05:14:50 PM
Facts and logic seem a bizarre basis for a discussion of the stock market.

I'll bite.  Why?
Why, Yi, why?

?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on January 31, 2021, 06:56:06 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 05:14:50 PM
Facts and logic seem a bizarre basis for a discussion of the stock market.
It's always been animal spirits, no?

I thought this take was interesting:
QuoteThe GameStop affair is like tulip mania on steroids
Dan Davies
It's eerily similar to the 17th-century Dutch bubble, but with the self-organising potential of the internet added to the mix
Fri 29 Jan 2021 14.20 GMT
Last modified on Sat 30 Jan 2021 04.37 GMT

Towards the end of 1636, there was an outbreak of bubonic plague in the Netherlands. The concept of a lockdown was not really established at the time, but merchant trade slowed to a trickle. Idle young men in the town of Haarlem gathered in taverns, and looked for amusement in one of the few commodities still trading – contracts for the delivery of flower bulbs the following spring. What ensued is often regarded as the first financial bubble in recorded history – the "tulip mania".

Nearly 400 years later, something similar has happened in the US stock market. This week, the share price of a company called GameStop – an unexceptional retailer that appears to have been surprised and confused by the whole episode – became the battleground between some of the biggest names in finance and a few hundred bored (mostly) bros exchanging messages on the WallStreetBets forum, part of the sprawling discussion site Reddit.

The rubble is still bouncing in this particular episode, but the broad shape of what's happened is not unfamiliar. Reasoning that a business model based on selling video game DVDs through shopping malls might not have very bright prospects, several of New York's finest hedge funds bet against GameStop's share price. The Reddit crowd appears to have decided that this was unfair and that they should fight back on behalf of gamers. They took the opposite side of the trade and pushed the price up, using derivatives and brokerage credit in surprisingly sophisticated ways to maximise their firepower.

To everyone's surprise, the crowd won; the hedge funds' risk management processes kicked in, and they were forced to buy back their negative positions, pushing the price even higher. But the stock exchanges have always frowned on this sort of concerted action, and on the use of leverage to manipulate the market. The sheer volume of orders had also grown well beyond the capacity of the small, fee-free brokerages favoured by the WallStreetBets crowd. Credit lines were pulled, accounts were frozen and the retail crowd were forced to sell; yesterday the price gave back a large proportion of its gains.

To people who know a lot about stock exchange regulation and securities settlement, this outcome was quite inevitable – it's part of the reason why things like this don't happen every day. To a lot of American Redditors, though, it was a surprising introduction to the complexity of financial markets, taking place in circumstances almost perfectly designed to convince them that the system is rigged for the benefit of big money.

Corners, bear raids and squeezes, in the industry jargon, have been around for as long as stock markets – in fact, as British hedge fund legend Paul Marshall points out in his book Ten and a Half Lessons From Experience something very similar happened last year at the start of the coronavirus lockdown, centred on a suddenly unemployed sports bookmaker called Dave Portnoy. But the GameStop affair exhibits some surprising new features.

Most importantly, it was a largely self-organising phenomenon. For most of stock market history, orchestrating a pool of people to manipulate markets has been something only the most skilful could achieve. Some of the finest buildings in New York were erected on the proceeds of this rare talent, before it was made illegal. The idea that such a pool could coalesce so quickly and without any obvious sign of a single controlling mind is brand new and ought to worry us a bit.

And although some of the claims made by contributors to WallStreetBets that they represent the masses aren't very convincing – although small by hedge fund standards, many of them appear to have five-figure sums to invest – it's unfamiliar to say the least to see a pool motivated by rage or other emotions as opposed to the straightforward desire to make money. Just as air traffic regulation is based on the assumption that the planes are trying not to crash into one another, financial regulation is based on the assumption that people are trying to make money for themselves, not to destroy it for other people.

When I think about market regulation, I'm always reminded of a saying of Édouard Herriot, the former mayor of Lyon. He said that local government was like an andouillette sausage; it had to stink a little bit of shit, but not too much. Financial markets aren't video games, they aren't democratic and small investors aren't the backbone of capitalism. They're nasty places with extremely complicated rules, which only work to the extent that the people involved in them trust one another. Speculation is genuinely necessary on a stock market – without it, you could be waiting days for someone to take up your offer when you wanted to buy or sell shares. But it's a necessary evil, and it needs to be limited. It's a shame that the Redditors found this out the hard way.

    Dan Davies is a former regulatory economist at the Bank of England and the author of Lying For Money: How Legendary Frauds Reveal the Workings of Our World
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:58:01 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 06:26:54 PM
For two reasons:

1) Generally, the stock market's whole schtick is greed, fear, exhilaration. These are powerful emotions. We harness facts to these emotions, not the reverse. It therefore shouldn't be surprising that emotions play a very important role in assessing how it operates.

My opinion differs.  Shocker!

As you might be aware, I watch a good bit of CNBC, and I read the ocassional piece from Motley Fool or other investment web sites.  Nothing on those sources fits your description of (if you will excuse the paraphrase) rationalizing facts to fit our emotions.

What I see much more fitting your description is popular culture discussions.  Wallstreetbets writ large.  "OMG Elon is King!  Tesla to $20,000!"

I also have seen a great deal of discussion about common mistakes of retail investors based on irrationality: assuming an uptrending stock will keep on, not selling off losers, etc.  Those are arguments against emotionally informed stock choices.

So if your thesis is that irrationality exists in the market, I agree.  If your thesis is that facts and logic play *no* part, I completely disagree.  P/E ratios are facts.  Monetary and tax policy are facts.  Free cash flow is a fact.  Earnings per share is a fact.

Quote2) Specifically, because here, the issue is divided on the very notion of what ought to be. Stating what the rules are is an important element in any discussion, but the crux of the matter is always what they mean, and that discussion itself is almost impossible to disentangle from what we think they ought to achieve. And in that regard, we can only work through metaphors.

Here we might actually have some partial agreement.  The way I see it, there are two separate grown-up discussions one can have about WSB/Gamestop.  One is what is actually happening.  The second is what, if anything, should be done about it.  And obviously the second must be informed by our sense of right and wrong, our morals, our ethics, etc.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:02:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:46:03 PMI've never been made aware of some individual or group or fund announcing they were going to bid up shares in an effort to induce a short squeeze and inviting others to join. 

It seems we return to the dividing point. If the novelty here is that the group of investors was coordinated through the internet, it seems you can either ask: what in essence, differentiates that from a group of investors coordinated through either a legal vehicle (a hedge fund) or a shared sociability (Wall Street traders); or you can ask what consequences this has for the future of online trading. I.e., the existing rules are unfair vs the existing rules are threatened.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 31, 2021, 07:06:27 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 06:51:04 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 31, 2021, 06:39:29 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:37:34 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 05:14:50 PM
Facts and logic seem a bizarre basis for a discussion of the stock market.

I'll bite.  Why?
Why, Yi, why?

?
Just seemed obvious that you threw the hook there, waiting for someone to ask you to elaborate.  https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q?t=25
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:09:19 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 06:58:01 PM
So if your thesis is that irrationality exists in the market, I agree.  If your thesis is that facts and logic play *no* part, I completely disagree.  P/E ratios are facts.  Monetary and tax policy are facts.  Free cash flow is a fact.  Earnings per share is a fact.

I only disagree inasmuch as our reason is mostly rationalisation. Which doesn't mean it can't be powerful, nor that facts can't exist - in this case, it succeeds at making uncomfortable discussion about greed, injustice, purpose, etc. very distant, very removed. In essence, I think you see emotion as an unavoidable parasite in what ought to be rational; I see it as the underlying assumption that is being channeled in very specific ways. But that is mostly a generic point.

QuoteHere we might actually have some partial agreement.  The way I see it, there are two separate grown-up discussions one can have about WSB/Gamestop.  One is what is actually happening.  The second is what, if anything, should be done about it.  And obviously the second must be informed by our sense of right and wrong, our morals, our ethics, etc.

:cheers: I was attempting to rephrase to explain the disconnect, maybe only for myself.

(I do think you are too quick to ascribe to people who denounce the underlying injustice that peeks through as throwing a tamper tantrum, but what else is new  :P)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:10:29 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:02:35 PM
It seems we return to the dividing point. If the novelty here is that the group of investors was coordinated through the internet, it seems you can either ask: what in essence, differentiates that from a group of investors coordinated through either a legal vehicle (a hedge fund) or a shared sociability (Wall Street traders); or you can ask what consequences this has for the future of online trading. I.e., the existing rules are unfair vs the existing rules are threatened.

If you've been following this entire Gamestop discussion, you'll know I kind of asked Joan this same question more or less.  I don't think there's a pat answer.

What i think would help clarify this particular issue is a concrete historical case of this strategy being executed by an institutional investor.  Joan tried, and came up with the Hunt brothers cornering the silver market (the entire world's silver market!!) but to my mind that doesn't help because it doesn't include the short squeeze mechanism.

Or to put it another way, if your argument is that institutional investors have done this so it's only fair that retail investors get to do it too (or outlaw it for institutional investors), we need to establish whether in fact the big boys have actually done it.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:11:53 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 31, 2021, 07:06:27 PM
Just seemed obvious that you threw the hook there, waiting for someone to ask you to elaborate.  https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q?t=25

:huh: Of course.

I love Yi, but he has the tendency to answer long posts with a sentence or two. I'd rather not lose my time if he's not interested in an exchange. I assume you were not.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:20:51 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:09:19 PM
I only disagree inasmuch as our reason is mostly rationalisation. Which doesn't mean it can't be powerful, nor that facts can't exist - in this case, it succeeds at making uncomfortable discussion about greed, injustice, purpose, etc. very distant, very removed. In essence, I think you see emotion as an unavoidable parasite in what ought to be rational; I see it as the underlying assumption that is being channeled in very specific ways. But that is mostly a generic point.

So you're arguing that investors that outperform have superior emotions that they rationalize?

Quote(I do think you are too quick to ascribe to people who denounce the underlying injustice that peeks through as throwing a tamper tantrum, but what else is new  :P)

I criticize people who build narratives based on made up facts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:32:05 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:10:29 PMOr to put it another way, if your argument is that institutional investors have done this so it's only fair that retail investors get to do it too (or outlaw it for institutional investors), we need to establish whether in fact the big boys have actually done it.

Yes, I have been following - if only because I am fond of moments like this where we are forced to peer behind the curtains of what the economy is "made of". (And so I am more invested - haha - in reintroducing the notion of power in this than in suddenly making every little investor capable of coordinating with thousands others. I don't have a clear sense of what we ought to do about it).

And ultimately, this is a political case. I don't think most Redditors were seeing it primarily as an investment strategy; they were seeing it as a political strategy, a power-play. Which I think some people will want to read as an undue intervention of political preferences in the economy, and some people will want to read as a welcome reminder that the economy is political. I think the main issue is less about the mechanisms of the short-squeeze than about the capacity of certain individuals and groups to leverage way more power, and profit from it, than even great multitudes.

I think one of the issue here is that, as Tammas vaguely suggested, we'll have a lot of stories of controversial squeezes (and so the failed ones), because they are the ones generating the paper (and therefore, generating the regulation mechanisms), whereas if it's a "business-as-usual" thing, that will go largely unnoticed. I can't really tell - but since the sociology of traders and arbitrage shows a lot of ordinary coordination that gets erased by official paper, I wouldn't be surprised and wouldn't find it shocking to assume it happens in this case too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:34:05 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:20:51 PMSo you're arguing that investors that outperform have superior emotions that they rationalize?

No.  :huh:

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:47:24 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:32:05 PM
And ultimately, this is a political case. I don't think most Redditors were seeing it primarily as an investment strategy; they were seeing it as a political strategy, a power-play. Which I think some people will want to read as an undue intervention of political preferences in the economy, and some people will want to read as a welcome reminder that the economy is political. I think the main issue is less about the mechanisms of the short-squeeze than about the capacity of certain individuals and groups to leverage way more power, and profit from it, than even great multitudes.

To clarify, this is a statement of your preference, and not fact, correct?

QuoteI think one of the issue here is that, as Tammas vaguely suggested, we'll have a lot of stories of controversial squeezes (and so the failed ones), because they are the ones generating the paper (and therefore, generating the regulation mechanisms), whereas if it's a "business-as-usual" thing, that will go largely unnoticed. I can't really tell - but since the sociology of traders and arbitrage shows a lot of ordinary coordination that gets erased by official paper, I wouldn't be surprised and wouldn't find it shocking to assume it happens in this case too.

Please tell me more about sociology of traders and arbitrage and ordinary coordination that gets erased by official paper, as I have no idea what you're talking about.  Bonus points for succinctness.  ;)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:50:36 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:34:05 PM
No.  :huh:

If decisions are based mainly on emotions that are rationalized (instead of facts that are analyzed)  then it seems to me one of two things must be true.  Either performance is randomly distributed (which it is not) or better performers have better emotions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: viper37 on January 31, 2021, 07:54:23 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 05:14:50 PM
Facts and logic seem a bizarre basis for a discussion of the stock market.
I have absolutely no idea how NASA can effectively plan a mission to mars.  I do not know how the next generation engines will work, not a clue.  And I've read about it, the theoritical papers.  Well, I do get the basics, but the rest is filled with sorcery and weird incantations.
But just because I do not understand the underlying maths does not mean it is not based on facts and logics.
Sometimes, reading about history, I don't understand how some people made decisions that appear totally illogical to me.  It doesn't mean those decisions were illogical at the time, with the information they had.
You are channeling your best impression of Patrick Lagacé with that statement.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 08:10:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:47:24 PM
To clarify, this is a statement of your preference, and not fact, correct?

What do you mean? My analysis (and I don't see that as especially novel) is that this is not an issue driven by a loophole in the regulatory scheme, but that it's driven by politics. By the preferences and desires of Redditors to stick it to Wall Street, and make some people pay, rather than make a lot of money for themselves. Accounts of the events seem to favor this interpretation.

My preference is that the debate over "what to do" take this element into account. Your prefence may be that it does not. 

QuotePlease tell me more about sociology of traders and arbitrage and ordinary coordination that gets erased by official paper, as I have no idea what you're talking about.  Bonus points for succinctness.  ;)

Executive summary: trading is insider trading. Information must flow, and it always does, through tons of interpersonal channels that do not appear neatly in annual reports and minutes. The delicate task of people inside businesses and inside government (who are often the same) is to decide how to index some information as "inside trading" thus worthy of being regulated, and the rest as not deserving of such scrutiny.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 08:24:49 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 08:10:22 PM
What do you mean? My analysis (and I don't see that as especially novel) is that this is not an issue driven by a loophole in the regulatory scheme, but that it's driven by politics. By the preferences and desires of Redditors to stick it to Wall Street, and make some people pay, rather than make a lot of money for themselves. Accounts of the events seem to favor this interpretation.

My preference is that the debate over "what to do" take this element into account. Your prefence may be that it does not. 

I do take this into account.  I have taken this into account in this very thread.  One complication arises over the fact that sticking it to the man can (and has) resulted in profit.  Enormous profit for some.

QuoteExecutive summary: trading is insider trading. Information must flow, and it always does, through tons of interpersonal channels that do not appear neatly in annual reports and minutes. The delicate task of people inside businesses and inside government (who are often the same) is to decide how to index some information as "inside trading" thus worthy of being regulated, and the rest as not deserving of such scrutiny.

Excellent summary.  I too assume there is a lot of backdoor unofficial communication by market participants.  Insider trading is pretty gray IMO.  So is market manipulation.  Joan posted the text on market manipulation and it can be summarized IMO as "it's our judgement call."

Now do we get from there to "institutional investors have coordinated to profit from a short squeeze, so retail investors should be able to as well?"  I say more no than yes, and I'm going to guess you say more yes than no.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 08:28:01 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 07:50:36 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:34:05 PM
No.  :huh:

If decisions are based mainly on emotions that are rationalized (instead of facts that are analyzed) 

Got it. You are opposing two things which I do not oppose. It's not one or the other. Decisions are mostly based on incomplete data and instinct. Both offer predictive value, and both are subject to analysis. Rationalizations are created after the fact to bridge the gap between the two. Reasons are offered in the hopes of winning some people over to one's side. Which doesn't mean they do not have value. In any of these steps, some people may do a better job than others; in any of these steps, some element of circumstances may be rewarded by society.

Analogy from a non-capitalist perspective: Tamas insults Yi. Yi feels he must avenge his honor with Tamas' blood. Sure, Yi could spend a full month analyzing Tamas' and figuring out the true meaning of the insult but that is neither advisable nor possible. The duel is fought with all the knowledge and skill and rules of swordfight. Yi wins. He is accused of murder. Yi defends his case in front of the king; the king is swayed. Was Yi a better swordsman, or a better lawyer? Did he have better info about the king or about Tamas? Maybe after 100 duels we'd know that Yi is indeed a better swordsman, but I contend we may also want to ask why he gets into so many duels...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 08:29:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 08:24:49 PMNow do we get from there to "institutional investors have coordinated to profit from a short squeeze, so retail investors should be able to as well?"  I say more no than yes, and I'm going to guess you say more yes than no.

Most probably.  :cheers:


Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 08:38:05 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 08:28:01 PM
Got it. You are opposing two things which I do not oppose. It's not one or the other. Decisions are mostly based on incomplete data and instinct. Both offer predictive value, and both are subject to analysis. Rationalizations are created after the fact to bridge the gap between the two. Reasons are offered in the hopes of winning some people over to one's side. Which doesn't mean they do not have value. In any of these steps, some people may do a better job than others; in any of these steps, some element of circumstances may be rewarded by society.

Analogy from a non-capitalist perspective: Tamas insults Yi. Yi feels he must avenge his honor with Tamas' blood. Sure, Yi could spend a full month analyzing Tamas' and figuring out the true meaning of the insult but that is neither advisable nor possible. The duel is fought with all the knowledge and skill and rules of swordfight. Yi wins. He is accused of murder. Yi defends his case in front of the king; the king is swayed. Was Yi a better swordsman, or a better lawyer? Did he have better info about the king or about Tamas? Maybe after 100 duels we'd know that Yi is indeed a better swordsman, but I contend we may also want to ask why he gets into so many duels...

I'm afraid I don't understand any this.  Maybe best if we just drop it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 31, 2021, 09:38:05 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 31, 2021, 12:19:05 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 30, 2021, 03:20:00 PM
-rich people can pool their money in hedge funds, poor people can not,
-it is not explicitly illegal for a hedge fund to try to squeeze shorts, while it is illegal for redditers to organize collectively to do the same.

Which seems to me to be a way the rules really are tilted toward the wealthy. :(

Poor people are shut out of the market entirely - 45% of Americans own no stock and many of those that do own small, employer controlled 401K plans. This isn't about poor vs rich b/c the poor arent even in the conversation.

For the relatively affluent minority of Americans that do have non-de minimus stock holdings over which they can exercise meaningful control, it is arguably a golden age. Individual investors can trade a vast array of products unimaginable a few decades ago, quickly and conveniently, and without commissions. They even can access hedge and PE funds indirectly through fund-of-fund type vehicles but why would they want to?  The alternative fund industry does not generate alpha, at best it can claim to some degree of non-correlated beta.  An individual investor will almost always be best off buying Vanguard-type funds and ETFs with a standard asset allocation, something that is pretty cheap and easy to do.  That will perform as well over the long haul  as 99+% of the actively managed strategies out there.

What the WSB sub is doing has nothing to do with democratization or finance of evening the playing field.  It is as many have noted just the gamification of finance, applying to the stock marked the tropes, vocabulary and tactics of mobile gaming and reddit "culture". The point is not to do what real hedge funds do, the point is to thumb one's noses at hedge funds and burn a few greedy Wall Street fingers.  The point is fun, the fun of the old medieval carnivals.  And it is fun; I read enough of the sub to see that.  But there are real world consequences to this brand of fun.

If you really wanted to democratize finance you'd have to find a way to give everything HFT tech or get seats on commodities trading exchanges or give everyone their own team of 10 math and compsci PhDs to create investing algos for them.  To say the highly capitalized players have an advantage over ordinary Joes in finance is just to say we live in a capitalist system.  An ordinary Joe that decides he wants to start up his own chip foundry is going to find quickly he is not on a level playing field with Intel and Samsung.  You don't fix that problem by giving Joe the right to commit arson against the competing foundries.

If you think capitalism produces inequitable results, the two options are to abandon it for socialism or keep the system but use the power of the state for redistribution.  Anything else is a mirage.

You are obfuscating.

Groups of investors can pool their assets to collectively invest: they typically use hedge funds or mutual funds. Mutual funds are much more tightly regulated and are much more limited in the types of speculative activity they can undertake.

High net worth individuals can join hedge funds. Most ordinary investors are prohibited by law from doing so, but could if they met the wealth requirement.

If you want to argue that hedge funds don't produce above market returns and high net worth individuals aren't really getting a comparative advantage from being allowed to join them: I'm receptive to that argument. I also think the amateur speculators buying up Gamestop are by and large morons and deserve the losses most of them will suffer. But the financial regulatory structure prevents them from organizing in ways that wealthy people can--I can see a fundamental unfairness there.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on January 31, 2021, 09:43:08 PM
For the record, if you are talking about trading major securities, there are a lot of advantages the big players have that are difficult for a small investor can't overcome. But at the same time, there are advantages that a small investor has that a big player can't match - not in trading stock in a company like amazon - but can have intimate knowledge of a smaller local company that doesn't have much (or any) analyst coverage. Or the ability to invest in smaller ventures that aren't publicly traded.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 11:26:29 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2021/01/26/the-hedge-fund-genius-who-started-gamestops-4800-rally-now-calls-it-unnatural-insane-and-dangerous/?sh=53cf2b10303b

I was curious if the three big early pre-frenzy Gamestop buyers had cashed out their positions, so I googled "have Michael Burry and the Chewy guy cashed out their Gamestop positions?"  I got this article.  God I love Google.  So glad I own Alphabet.

One interesting factoid is that the share buyback he called for and was the reason for his buying in, helps explain the high short interest relative to float.  At his instigation Gamestop bought back 38% of outstanding shares.  [DGuller asks how this works.  No one knows.]

It also says he bought 3.4 million shares and held only 1.7 million as of September 30, before the fun started.  The author assumes he sold off as prices rose.  My understanding is we only know his holdings up to 9/30 because that's the last quarterly filing he had to make.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 12:00:57 AM
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/28/yes-a-stock-can-have-short-interest-over-100-heres/

Motley Fool article on how greater than 100% of float can be shorted.

QuoteHowever, even without a naked short sale, it's theoretically possible for short interest to exceed 100%. The reason has to do with the nature of the short-sale transaction itself.

As an example, take a situation involving four investors. Annie owns shares of GameStop, and Annie and her broker have an agreement that allows the broker to lend Annie's shares to short-sellers. It lends them to Bob, who subsequently sells those borrowed shares short in hopes that GameStop's share price will fall.

An investor named Chris ends up buying those borrowed shares from Bob. However, Chris has no way of knowing that those shares have been borrowed from Annie. To Chris, they're just like any other shares.

More importantly, if Chris has the same kind of agreement, then Chris's broker can lend out those shares to yet another investor. Diane, another GameStop bear, can borrow those shares and sell them short.

In this example, the same shares end up getting borrowed and sold twice. The short interest volume these transactions add to the total is twice the number of shares actually involved. You can therefore see that if this happened throughout the market, total short interest would eventually exceed the number of shares outstanding and approach 200%.

This still might seem impossible, and in a sense, it is. But part of the answer lies in the fact that there are investors that don't currently possess actual shares of GameStop but who have the same economic interest as shareholders. They have the right to get back the shares they lent at any time. When you add together the actual shares plus these "synthetic" positions in the stock, the short interest can't exceed 100% of that larger total.

I post this in part because I was wrong about short lenders being able to call back their lent stock.  I stand corrected.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 12:06:51 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:21:33 PM
Big name shorts have been crushed on Tesla.

This.

Again my concern is not with the hedge funds, they can take care of themselves. They already are maneuvering to incorporate the new retail investor behavior into their modeling.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 12:08:42 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2021, 05:56:22 PM
Really.  Reccomending you buy a stock to bid up the price to induce a short squeeze is not something that has been done to the best of my knowledge.  If you know otherwise, please inform me.

Anecdotally I think this kind of thing happened pre-1934 (ie pre SEC).  Like in the Jesse Livermore era.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 12:16:19 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 06:26:54 PM
1) Generally, the stock market's whole schtick is greed, fear, exhilaration. These are powerful emotions. We harness facts to these emotions, not the reverse. It therefore shouldn't be surprising that emotions play a very important role in assessing how it operates.

Institutional investors still dominate share trading. Exhilaration is rarely a factor, fear only occasionally, greed admittedly more. Institutions trade according to models that are based on some sort of analytical framework - with mathematically based algorithms steadily gaining prominence over time.  Where human discretion is deployed, it is enveloped in elaborate risk control techniques The image of the buccaneering, risk-taking trader is really more self-mythologizing at this point.

Quote2) Specifically, because here, the issue is divided on the very notion of what ought to be. Stating what the rules are is an important element in any discussion, but the crux of the matter is always what they mean, and that discussion itself is almost impossible to disentangle from what we think they ought to achieve. And in that regard, we can only work through metaphors.

That is true for virtually all social phenomena.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 12:33:38 AM
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 31, 2021, 07:32:05 PM
Yes, I have been following - if only because I am fond of moments like this where we are forced to peer behind the curtains of what the economy is "made of".

Well that one is easy enough. Using the metaphorical turn one can say that the entire economy involves the manufacture of sausage in one form or another. Even when the end products seem nice they may not always be healthy and a close examination of how the product came to be is often not uniformly pleasant. 

Moreover, to switch metaphors to something more easily analogizable to the mechanisms of the financial market, this episode may give some apparent insight into how the shell game hucksters move the cups around. But the trick is still on the viewer because we are still focusing on the wrong shell.  The stock market occupies a talismanic position in the American imagination, as can be seen in how it obsessed Donald Trump or in the fact that the Dow Jones index still dominates media headlines despite its near disuse in the markets. But the stock market is a relative financial minnow compared with the vastly larger and more significant debt markets. Even in the area of equity finance the public markets have to compete with the large and still growing private equity markets.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 12:45:46 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on January 31, 2021, 09:38:05 PM
You are obfuscating.

Groups of investors can pool their assets to collectively invest: they typically use hedge funds or mutual funds. Mutual funds are much more tightly regulated and are much more limited in the types of speculative activity they can undertake.

High net worth individuals can join hedge funds. Most ordinary investors are prohibited by law from doing so, but could if they met the wealth requirement.

If you want to argue that hedge funds don't produce above market returns and high net worth individuals aren't really getting a comparative advantage from being allowed to join them: I'm receptive to that argument. I also think the amateur speculators buying up Gamestop are by and large morons and deserve the losses most of them will suffer. But the financial regulatory structure prevents them from organizing in ways that wealthy people can--I can see a fundamental unfairness there.

That's exactly the argument I made above that you just said was "obfuscating" (?)
There is no solid evidence that taken a whole the hedge fund industry produces alpha, and some evidence it actually lags behind after fees.
The best case for alternatives is that they can more easily generate non-correlated beta for diversification purposes, but even if true and provable it's a pretty minor point for a typical small investor putting $ away for retirement.

The premise is also false - as I stated there are fund-of-fund vehicles and bank sponsored hedge funds with relatively low min investments - some in the 4 figures - plus ETFs that are designed to mimic hedge fund strategies.  It's true that ordinary Joe investor can't get preferential access to the so-called "top" or "hot" managers - of course, that is also true for many quite wealthy people as well.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 01, 2021, 04:10:16 AM
This used to be a nice, low-key thread, that mostly evaded the Languish-Pontification Borg.   Ya'll have ruined it.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 06:27:19 AM
The Guardian is calling today's pumping of silver as a Reddit thing despite WallStreetBets specifically trying to have nothing to do with it, with people downvoting any mention of SLV etc.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 01, 2021, 06:29:16 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 06:27:19 AM
The Guardian is calling today's pumping of silver as a Reddit thing despite WallStreetBets specifically trying to have nothing to do with it, with people downvoting any mention of SLV etc.


Yes, very curious to see from the guardian in particular. My respect for them has dropped.

Regardless I have a few mining shares. They have gone up. Time to sell? :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 06:34:52 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 12:45:46 AM
That's exactly the argument I made above that you just said was "obfuscating" (?)
There is no solid evidence that taken a whole the hedge fund industry produces alpha, and some evidence it actually lags behind after fees.
The best case for alternatives is that they can more easily generate non-correlated beta for diversification purposes, but even if true and provable it's a pretty minor point for a typical small investor putting $ away for retirement.

The premise is also false - as I stated there are fund-of-fund vehicles and bank sponsored hedge funds with relatively low min investments - some in the 4 figures - plus ETFs that are designed to mimic hedge fund strategies.  It's true that ordinary Joe investor can't get preferential access to the so-called "top" or "hot" managers - of course, that is also true for many quite wealthy people as well.

The reason I'm saying you are obfuscating is that my point is that there is validity that what the reddit dudes complaint that the rules are biased against them.

They are trying to profit (or make the world a better place by scaring short positions) by collectively taking action to aggressively speculate in a single stock. While you have said they could get sued for doing what they did through a hedge fund vehicle, it isn't explicitly illegal to do so. But they couldn't form a hedge fund because the SEC has income and high net worth tests that most people have to pass to be allowed into the funds. They were denied the opportunity to provide themselves legal cover for their collective actions because they don't make or have enough money - and that is because of SEC rules not because fund managers don't want to mess with poor people.

Being able to work around not being able to get into hedge fund like vehicles is not the same thing. These guys couldn't join a hedge fund like vehicle to squeeze short positions in Gamestop because such a fund doesn't exist.

I have zero interest in joining or creating a hedge fund, and have seen the research that they don't produce above market returns. For the vast majority of investors, the best returns will be obtained by investing in well diversified mutual funds with very low fees (such as index funds) -- which is the way that I invest - I haven't bought an individual stock in over 10 years. That is immaterial to the point that SEC rules provide high net worth individuals additional investment opportunities versus ordinary investors.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 06:50:27 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 01, 2021, 06:29:16 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 06:27:19 AM
The Guardian is calling today's pumping of silver as a Reddit thing despite WallStreetBets specifically trying to have nothing to do with it, with people downvoting any mention of SLV etc.


Yes, very curious to see from the guardian in particular. My respect for them has dropped.

Regardless I have a few mining shares. They have gone up. Time to sell? :hmm:

When I first fumbled around in the stock market (like 15 years ago, knew even less than I do now so don't ask) I noticed Silver was extremely volatile and unpredictable and in general seemed like a big boys' playground.

I don't think WSB could make a dent in it even if they wanted to. I'd assume some funds were doing/planning to do some moves and decided to grab the coattails for some additional news exposure to hype it up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 06:58:09 AM
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/31/investing/silver-price-squeeze-reddit-wallstreetbets/index.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/silver-futures-jump-7percent-as-reddit-traders-try-their-squeeze-play-with-the-metal.html


When I had a look a few hours ago I could not find a SINGLE WSB post calling people to buy silver-related stocks/futures/whatevs. Saw a few actively discouraging people from doing so.

How nice when market manipulation meets journalistic laziness. Decidedly old school compared to what happened to Gamestop.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 01, 2021, 07:25:56 AM
I found this site useful for examining WSB buzz:

https://www.topstonks.com/stocks/GME

Just put in the ticker code you want in place of GME.

Most of the silver stuff does seem to be in the "WTF is the media going on about?" area :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 08:02:06 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 01, 2021, 06:29:16 AM
Regardless I have a few mining shares. They have gone up. Time to sell? :hmm:

You should sell and stop buying individual stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 08:32:01 AM
Also, you shouldn't buy individual socks. Unless you only have one foot, in which case, carry on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 01, 2021, 09:22:53 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 08:02:06 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 01, 2021, 06:29:16 AM
Regardless I have a few mining shares. They have gone up. Time to sell? :hmm:

You should sell and stop buying individual stocks.
:blink:

This is a personal attack?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 09:39:41 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 01, 2021, 09:22:53 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 08:02:06 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 01, 2021, 06:29:16 AM
Regardless I have a few mining shares. They have gone up. Time to sell? :hmm:

You should sell and stop buying individual stocks.
:blink:

This is a personal attack?

I think the idea is that buying an ETF or similar is safer, especially if you aim to be exposed to a particular sector.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 10:17:54 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 01, 2021, 09:22:53 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 08:02:06 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 01, 2021, 06:29:16 AM
Regardless I have a few mining shares. They have gone up. Time to sell? :hmm:

You should sell and stop buying individual stocks.
:blink:

This is a personal attack?

:huh:

Very, very few people should be picking and choosing individual stocks, as Tamas says. Invest in a broad portfolio of stocks, not individuals. Your long-term returns are basically guaranteed to be higher.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 10:20:36 AM
Lay off Squeeze.  :mad:

Just put an order in to sell 1 Tesla put 2/5 @740.  Order didn't execute right away which is strange.  Usually it's instantaneous.  Wonder if I'm getting caught in some Gamestop backwash.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 10:26:38 AM
Never mind.  Went through.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 10:30:24 AM
Silver up a decent amount, GME way way down. :yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 10:51:17 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 10:30:24 AM
Silver up a decent amount, GME way way down. :yeah:

I will be bitter the remainder of my life* that I was unable to short GME. I bet the top 1% have brokers that gave them access to shorting GME.

*or until next week, should my life extend that long
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 10:57:33 AM
Fair level of bitterness, but I still think that the bizarre strength and the extreme expense of it has probably saved you some money.

What were you intending on buying into? What premium level? What strike price and on what date? We can track your potential losses/gains in real time!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 10:59:52 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 10:51:17 AM
I will be bitter the remainder of my life* that I was unable to short GME. I bet the top 1% have brokers that gave them access to shorting GME.

*or until next week, should my life extend that long

You understand that the scarcity of borrowable GME shares has nothing to do with your broker, right?

Strangely the price of my put is moving in the opposite direction from the share price.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 01, 2021, 11:01:16 AM
I think if it were easier to short GME, it would've crashed sooner to begin with.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 11:02:12 AM
To AR's bet that the 1% are monopolizing the chance to short, I think there is a misconception that people in the 1% spend their time playing the public markets.

A lot of money of the 1% is actually chasing investment opportunities in the private equity market and those investors really could not care less about placing bets on which way the public market will fluctuate.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 11:09:33 AM
Last week I decided to live it large and used my shitty CFD provider to "sell" 1 (one) stock of Gamespot when it was in freefall. Then trading got suspended due to the 10%+ move, and when it resumed my provider glitched, registered a price that never was which hit the automatic stop loss a shitty provider like this would have on a CFD and I found myself unfairly short on £40.

Today their tech support guy called me back and told me they'd just refund me if the contract never happened since the price moved way past the automatic stop loss since then. Was fine with me obvs.

So as it started falling today, I did the same thing, "sold" 1 CFD, and then the circuit-breaker hit again and when it came back the system glitched again, and I am once again lost £40 pounds totally unfairly.  :lol: Called them again and asked them to sort it out.

Won't try for a third time though.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 11:12:09 AM
So I will ask the question, why did you buy it in the first place?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 11:13:24 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 10:57:33 AM
Fair level of bitterness, but I still think that the bizarre strength and the extreme expense of it has probably saved you some money.

What were you intending on buying into? What premium level? What strike price and on what date? We can track your potential losses/gains in real time!

I hit the button to short on the Fidelity website at 360. When it didn't go through I called the suggested number to process the trade, and was on hold for 1 hour 20 minutes and requested the broker to put the trade through at 320 (the then market price). He then said there was a problem with his system and he would transfer me to another broker that could help, but that just put me on hold again and I hung up after 20 more minutes.

So either $360 or $320. I was trying to establish a $15k short position.

It wasn't expensive at all: the trade was free with a quoted borrowing rate of 27% APR.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 11:17:08 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 11:13:24 AM
It wasn't expensive at all: the trade was free with a quoted borrowing rate of 27% APR.

FYI the rate I'm getting on my lent shares is in the 1.5-.5% range.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 11:19:24 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 11:12:09 AM
So I will ask the question, why did you buy it in the first place?

No with a CFD you don't have to buy to sell. It's basically a gambling contract - you hit "sell" on X number of "shares" which becomes a margin position of that value on the stock. Then when you close it, if the price of the stock has decreased you get the difference. If it has risen, you pay the difference to the "broker".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 11:22:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 11:19:24 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 11:12:09 AM
So I will ask the question, why did you buy it in the first place?

No with a CFD you don't have to buy to sell. It's basically a gambling contract - you hit "sell" on X number of "shares" which becomes a margin position of that value on the stock. Then when you close it, if the price of the stock has decreased you get the difference. If it has risen, you pay the difference to the "broker".

I know, why did you buy the contract when you knew it was just gambling?  Just to see how it worked?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 11:25:46 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 11:22:29 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 11:19:24 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 11:12:09 AM
So I will ask the question, why did you buy it in the first place?

No with a CFD you don't have to buy to sell. It's basically a gambling contract - you hit "sell" on X number of "shares" which becomes a margin position of that value on the stock. Then when you close it, if the price of the stock has decreased you get the difference. If it has risen, you pay the difference to the "broker".

I know, why did you buy the contract when you knew it was just gambling?  Just to see how it worked?

Because I am a degenerate gambler? :D

I am maintaining that separate CFD account with a broker well away from my stock account (which is with a more serious outfit) as an outlet of my gambling instincts, plus a platform to try some riskier plays. It has seen some highs and lows, recently mostly lows. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 11:27:26 AM
Ok, you approach it like I do, it is just a game with play money  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 11:31:54 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 11:25:46 AM
Because I am a degenerate gambler? :D

:D We're not so different, you and I...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 02:14:22 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 06:34:52 AM
They are trying to profit (or make the world a better place by scaring short positions) by collectively taking action to aggressively speculate in a single stock.

Now that is obfuscation

QuoteBut they couldn't form a hedge fund because the SEC has income and high net worth tests that most people have to pass to be allowed into the funds.

You are confusing requirements for investing in fund with the requirements for forming one.

The accredited investor bar for investing is not that high - 200k income individually or 300k jointly or 1 million in net worth.  Even if you don't meet the bar you can qualify if you are an employee of the company or hold certain professional qualifications relating to finance.

It is the SEC's judgment that people who do not meet the bar should not be investing in risky ventures and products and the rule is there to protect them. You are free to disagree but in that case the issue is not that the "rules" are against the "little guy"  Your beef is with the paternalism of the SEC.

QuoteBeing able to work around not being able to get into hedge fund like vehicles is not the same thing. These guys couldn't join a hedge fund like vehicle to squeeze short positions in Gamestop because such a fund doesn't exist.

Well it's true that there is no fund vehicle that pursues a strategy of pursing pump-and-dump market manipulation techniques to inflate the prices of crappy companies.  I don't think that proves your point of unfairness though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 02:38:41 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 02:14:22 PM

The accredited investor bar for investing is not that high - 200k income individually or 300k jointly or 1 million in net worth.  Even if you don't meet the bar you can qualify if you are an employee of the company or hold certain professional qualifications relating to finance.

It is the SEC's judgment that people who do not meet the bar should not be investing in risky ventures and products and the rule is there to protect them. You are free to disagree but in that case the issue is not that the "rules" are against the "little guy"  Your beef is with the paternalism of the SEC.


LOL--and here is the crux. "Not that high". US median household income is $65k. I think the wealth test is $1 million in liquid net worth--excluding residential wealth. Regardless, the vast majority of Americans are excluded from participating in certain types of collaborate investment ventures on the basis of their wealth and income.

"Paternalism" doesn't change that the rules are actually more restrictive for less wealthy investors precisely on the basis of their wealth and income.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 02:49:05 PM
Do you think we should remove the restrictions of hedge fund participation
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 02:54:57 PM
GME not collapsing as I had hoped.  I'll probably let it ride till Wednesday then cut my losses.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 02:58:57 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 02:49:05 PM
Do you think we should remove the restrictions of hedge fund participation

I could be convinced. I also don't know why anyone would want to go plunk their money down in hedge funds considering their horrid performance.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 03:04:07 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-AFMM3paOU&t=267s

Interview with Ameritrade ex CEO.  He explains Robinhood's clearing situation some more.

Boils down to the two day lag to transfer funds.  So even though Robinhood is sitting on the customers' cash, when a customer makes a purchase that cash takes two days to get to the clearing house.  So Robinhood has to maintain a deposit at the clearing house to cover that float.

A little surprised it takes BIG FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS that long to move money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 03:04:58 PM
Tonto mongered! :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 03:08:51 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 02:49:05 PM
Do you think we should remove the restrictions of hedge fund participation

I don't care one way or the other.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 01, 2021, 03:25:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 03:04:58 PM
Tonto mongered! :o

I realized my post evidenced half-baked thinking.

While, sure, I could sell a covered call on TSLA, at 1000, that expires in April, for $5K...which sounds like a too-easy five grand, especially as I doubt TSLA would make 1000, and if it did, I'd almost certainly sell off there.

BUT...I then realized the downside...I have to hold the stock until April...and if it nose dives, I cannot unload it before then.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 03:40:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 03:04:07 PM
A little surprised it takes BIG FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS that long to move money.

There have been pushes to reduce it but, IIRC, there hasn't been a whole lot of need to do so...until...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 03:49:26 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 02:58:57 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 02:49:05 PM
Do you think we should remove the restrictions of hedge fund participation

I could be convinced. I also don't know why anyone would want to go plunk their money down in hedge funds considering their horrid performance.

AR is arguing for more ways for unsophisticated investors to lose their money.  I am not so sure that is the best regulatory approach.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 04:11:27 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 03:49:26 PM
AR is arguing for more ways for unsophisticated investors to lose their money.  I am not so sure that is the best regulatory approach.

I'm unconvinced that income and wealth qualify someone as "sophisticated", but I'm actually not even arguing that. I am arguing that if there are additional options available to the wealthy that are legally closed to the poor--because they have been classified as unsophisticated based on their financial status-- the complaint that the rules are biased against the poor/in favor of the rich is going to have merit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 04:17:57 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 03:49:26 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 01, 2021, 02:58:57 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 02:49:05 PM
Do you think we should remove the restrictions of hedge fund participation

I could be convinced. I also don't know why anyone would want to go plunk their money down in hedge funds considering their horrid performance.

AR is arguing for more ways for unsophisticated investors to lose their money.  I am not so sure that is the best regulatory approach.

I'm also not sure that's the best step either, but as AR says, I think there's an argument to be had there. It creates poor perceptions even when the reality is that the rich are, on average, fools to put their money into hedge funds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 05:09:30 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 02:38:41 PM
LOL--and here is the crux. "Not that high". US median household income is $65k.

Right and nearly half of American own NO stock. 

I agree here is the crux but respectfully to say that the problem that median income households earning 65K a year face is lack of sufficient ability to engage in esoteric trading strategies and options plays misses the point in a very big way.   
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 05:24:40 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 03:04:07 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-AFMM3paOU&t=267s

Interview with Ameritrade ex CEO.  He explains Robinhood's clearing situation some more.

Boils down to the two day lag to transfer funds.  So even though Robinhood is sitting on the customers' cash, when a customer makes a purchase that cash takes two days to get to the clearing house.  So Robinhood has to maintain a deposit at the clearing house to cover that float.

A little surprised it takes BIG FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS that long to move money.

Well it's easier to be clever with numbers and accounting on both ends if there's a bit of a lag.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 05:55:45 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 01, 2021, 05:09:30 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 02:38:41 PM
LOL--and here is the crux. "Not that high". US median household income is $65k.

Right and nearly half of American own NO stock. 

I agree here is the crux but respectfully to say that the problem that median income households earning 65K a year face is lack of sufficient ability to engage in esoteric trading strategies and options plays misses the point in a very big way.

They are able to engage in esoteric trading strategies and options. They just can't do so through a hedge fund. Back before I ditched cable I used to see lots of advertisements and infomercials offering to teach them all sorts of methods to do so on their own. For those so inclined they would probably be better off sticking to trying to flip houses, or paying Sal with the 4am infomerical $20 for his "lock of the week" gambling advice.

Without googling stats, I feel safe in saying the vast majority of households with stock ownership fall short of the "sophisticated investor" financial criteria. I also suspect that is true of those playing with options.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 06:04:31 PM
In hindsight it seems clear the Gamespot squeeze ended with the purchase bans on Thursday. Until it happened the price was climbing steadily, then collapsed, never getting close to the pre-ban highs.

Whether it was deliberate to get this effect or not is up to debate, but the effect itself seems very clear to me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on February 01, 2021, 06:11:52 PM
How exciting that there are now two films in the works about this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 01, 2021, 06:46:11 PM
I'm not so sure it's over.
Looking at todays posts it seems the quantities being sold a very low with it all being artificial ladder attacks to try and push down the price to trigger people's sell offs.... The problem is that (for the short sellers) the WSB lot are not selling. Even those who stand to be millionaires if they sell are still holding out for the squeeze, confident that time is on their side and they just have to wait whilst the shorters interest payments keep increasing.
Despite all this it seems to be rising again, currently stuck trying to crack the $250 barrier. The most interesting part lies ahead I reckon.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 06:50:24 PM
My understanding is that volume was low compared to last week's frenzy but in line with normal times.

More importantly there were insane amounts of useless noise on WSB even before this, so I wouldn't try to understand the situation by reading them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 01, 2021, 06:52:41 PM
Also Tyr, Tradingview has the last after hours price at 187.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 01, 2021, 06:57:37 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 01, 2021, 06:46:11 PM
I'm not so sure it's over.
Looking at todays posts it seems the quantities being sold a very low with it all being artificial ladder attacks to try and push down the price to trigger people's sell offs.... The problem is that (for the short sellers) the WSB lot are not selling. Even those who stand to be millionaires if they sell are still holding out for the squeeze, confident that time is on their side and they just have to wait whilst the shorters interest payments keep increasing.
Despite all this it seems to be rising again, currently stuck trying to crack the $250 barrier. The most interesting part lies ahead I reckon.

There was never going to be a conventional short squeeze at these prices, where the short sellers have to close their positions resulting in an effective decrease in the number of shares available. As one short seller leaves, another will be around to step in. There were a lot of people trying to short the stock but unable to do so because shares weren't available.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 10:08:56 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 01, 2021, 06:46:11 PM
I'm not so sure it's over.
Looking at todays posts it seems the quantities being sold a very low with it all being artificial ladder attacks to try and push down the price to trigger people's sell offs.... The problem is that (for the short sellers) the WSB lot are not selling. Even those who stand to be millionaires if they sell are still holding out for the squeeze, confident that time is on their side and they just have to wait whilst the shorters interest payments keep increasing.
Despite all this it seems to be rising again, currently stuck trying to crack the $250 barrier. The most interesting part lies ahead I reckon.

What's a ladder attack?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 10:18:09 PM
https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/135807/closing-shorted-positions-via-short-ladder-attacks

Look it up your own damn self Yi!  :mad:

This site says it's a bullshit term made up on WSB to convince people to hold onto their shares.

If this is right this, those talking about ladder attacks are dancing around the line between stupidity and fraud.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2021, 10:20:02 PM
Quote from: garbon on February 01, 2021, 06:11:52 PM
How exciting that there are now two films in the works about this.

Yeah, right?  Two films about people typing on their phones.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 12:10:48 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 01, 2021, 03:25:52 PM
I realized my post evidenced half-baked thinking.

While, sure, I could sell a covered call on TSLA, at 1000, that expires in April, for $5K...which sounds like a too-easy five grand, especially as I doubt TSLA would make 1000, and if it did, I'd almost certainly sell off there.

BUT...I then realized the downside...I have to hold the stock until April...and if it nose dives, I cannot unload it before then.

Shorter option periods, less FOMO.  I'm selling 1 week TSLA options, two weeks max.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 08:29:43 AM
GME down to 128 in pre-market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 09:30:21 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 08:29:43 AM
GME down to 128 in pre-market.

I hope the 1% that got access to short the stock enjoy the new mega yachts they are get to buy with their winnings. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 09:37:37 AM
You're such a knucklehead sometimes Fredo.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2021, 09:44:29 AM
Thats that then, looks like the jig is up for the gamestop gang. Shame.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 09:45:53 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 09:44:29 AM
Thats that then, looks like the jig is up for the gamestop gang. Shame.

Are you staying the course or cutting and running?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2021, 09:50:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 09:45:53 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 09:44:29 AM
Thats that then, looks like the jig is up for the gamestop gang. Shame.

Are you staying the course or cutting and running?
Already sold. Profits on all way above what I'd normally expect out of shares albeit not quite the near peak of the first one. Oh well.
Tried to buy back in for a small amount  as I felt I saw a temporary bottom but the buy was rejected.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 09:53:24 AM
GME at $112.61
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 09:59:25 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 09:53:24 AM
GME at $112.61

I'd be up about $10k if Fidelity had processed my order.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 10:02:27 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 09:59:25 AM
I'd be up about $10k if Fidelity had processed my order.

You could have bought some puts.  No one to blame but your own knuckleheaded self.

Price of my put just EXPLODED to 1.90.  :yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 10:23:08 AM
I'll totally FOMO into GME.


At around $20.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 10:43:25 AM
85.01.

Jesus Fredo, why the hell didn't you short this dog?  You really blew it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2021, 10:47:08 AM
Mark Cuban AMA on the topic:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lawubt/hey_everyone_its_mark_cuban_jumping_on_to_do_an/
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 02, 2021, 10:47:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 10:43:25 AM
85.01.

Jesus Fredo, why the hell didn't you short this dog?  You really blew it.

:face:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 10:48:35 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 10:02:27 AM
You could have bought some puts.  No one to blame but your own knuckleheaded self.

Price of my put just EXPLODED to 1.90.  :yeah:

I think we discussed this before!!!!

The price of options priced in a crash of the stock over the medium term. When I was trying to short, with the price around $350, I looked at buying a one year put with the strike price of $350....It was like $220.

For someone confident that the stock would revert to a more reasonable level but not willing to bet on a timeline for that to happen, the only play was to outright short the stock (with a significant cushion of funds to avoid margin calls in the event it continued its dramatic rise in the short term).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 10:53:42 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 10:48:35 AM
I think we discussed this before!!!!

The price of options priced in a crash of the stock over the medium term. When I was trying to short, with the price around $350, I looked at buying a one year put with the strike price of $350....It was like $220.

For someone confident that the stock would revert to a more reasonable level but not willing to bet on a timeline for that to happen, the only play was to outright short the stock (with a significant cushion of funds to avoid margin calls in the event it continued its dramatic rise in the short term).

You discussed this before, we haven't.

A one year put was knuckleheaded.  There was no way the price was going to stay inflated that long.

Knucklehead knucklehead knucklehead.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 10:55:05 AM
2/5 put @35 up to $3.26! :yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 11:00:10 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 10:47:08 AM
Mark Cuban AMA on the topic:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lawubt/hey_everyone_its_mark_cuban_jumping_on_to_do_an/

Tell me what I'm supposed to be looking at.  I see an opening tweet by Cuban than a bunch of spazzy conspiracy stuff.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2021, 11:03:42 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 11:00:10 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 10:47:08 AM
Mark Cuban AMA on the topic:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lawubt/hey_everyone_its_mark_cuban_jumping_on_to_do_an/

Tell me what I'm supposed to be looking at.  I see an opening tweet by Cuban than a bunch of spazzy conspiracy stuff.
Not a normal reddit user?
Try changing the sort by to q&a if it isn't showing up.
Mcuban is his replies to people's questions, they're showing highlighted to me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 11:07:01 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 11:03:42 AM
Not a normal reddit user?

Hells no.

I see his comment now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 02, 2021, 11:24:30 AM
The one totally on the nose comment Cuban made in that AMA (re Robinhood)

Quote
Yes. There will be class action suits. And you will win. And after legal feeds you will get your $4.00 settlement check
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 11:24:52 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 10:53:42 AM
You discussed this before, we haven't.

A one year put was knuckleheaded.  There was no way the price was going to stay inflated that long.

Knucklehead knucklehead knucklehead.

That is the point: if you take the position there is "no way" the price will stay inflated that long, you get "guaranteed" profit with a short. You can hold a short position for a year or longer without an issue.

The way puts were priced, you have to bet that not only will the stock price fall, but it will fall in the short term.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 11:45:00 AM
I'll be pissed if my 1-stock CFD short at $250 will not be restored as an active position by my CFD broker. They still haven't come back to me regarding the glitch yesterday which stop-lossed me out of it incorrectly. I want my 100 pounds of profit dammit!  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 11:55:37 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 11:24:52 AM
That is the point: if you take the position there is "no way" the price will stay inflated that long, you get "guaranteed" profit with a short. You can hold a short position for a year or longer without an issue.

The way puts were priced, you have to bet that not only will the stock price fall, but it will fall in the short term.

Well duh.  You wanted to make a overkill sure thing bet and were butthurt that it cost a lot.  Of course it cost a lot.  How can a sure thing not cost a lot?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 02, 2021, 12:24:48 PM
How much flexibility do companies have to sell their own stock on short notice?  I know you can issue more stock, but it sounds like a length process.  Can Gamestop keep a supply of their own stock in a vault, maybe after buying them back, without removing them from the circulation?  If they could do that, then cashing in that vault could easily allow them mint losses for many more years.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 02, 2021, 12:31:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 02, 2021, 12:24:48 PM
How much flexibility do companies have to sell their own stock on short notice?  I know you can issue more stock, but it sounds like a length process.  Can Gamestop keep a supply of their own stock in a vault, maybe after buying them back, without removing them from the circulation?  If they could do that, then cashing in that vault could easily allow them mint losses for many more years.

You have to issue a prospectus, get it approved, which is lengthy.

Now, if Gamestop already had a prospectus and was already authorized to sell stock from time to time, then absolutely they should be doing that.  I read some takes that this bizarre story has "saved" the movie theatre business because AMC (which also had a similar stock increase) has been doing just that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 12:33:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 11:55:37 AM
Well duh.  You wanted to make a overkill sure thing bet and were butthurt that it cost a lot.  Of course it cost a lot.  How can a sure thing not cost a lot?

Are we talking about options or shorting?

I'm really not butthurt about either. Options pricing is fair, and shorting is cheap but logically unavailable because in high demand. I'm a bit annoyed that the response is to leave me on hold for 1 hour 40 minutes rather than just say, "shorting of this stock is in high demand and only available to our highest priority clients".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 12:59:06 PM
https://nypost.com/2021/02/02/barstool-founder-dave-portnoy-sells-gamestop-amc-shares-at-700k-loss/

QuoteOutspoken social media personality Dave Portnoy tweeted Tuesday that he has sold his shares in companies GameStop and AMC at a major loss, blaming trading app Robinhood for killing the so-called "Reddit Rally" that he joined and helped promote in recent weeks.

"I have officially sold all my meme stocks. I lost 700k ish." Portnoy tweeted, going on to take a personal shot at the CEO of Robinhood. "Vlad and company stole it from me and should be in jail."

:nelson:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2021, 01:01:08 PM
He ain't wrong though. That's the big take away from Cuban. Robinhood blocking access is when things turned.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 01:15:56 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 01:01:08 PM
He ain't wrong though. That's the big take away from Cuban. Robinhood blocking access is when things turned.

He is wrong.  Robinhood customers could have moved their funds to another broker and kept up the fight.

Things turned when sellers outnumbered buyers.  This short squeeze ponzi squeeze needed a net inflow of buyers to keep the price jacked up long enough so the shorts ran out of money to post collateral and pay the borrowing interest.

Actually Squeeze, you, and people like you killed the scheme.  Everyone who cashed out their winnings killed the scheme.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 02, 2021, 01:17:14 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 01:01:08 PM
He ain't wrong though. That's the big take away from Cuban. Robinhood blocking access is when things turned.

Yes, but the drive was completely unsustainable - it wasn't going to keep going up.  Robinhood may have been what started the downturn, but if not Robinhood something else would have.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:21:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 01:15:56 PM

Robinhood customers could have moved their funds to another broker and kept up the fight.


Yes. If they reacted superfast on Thursday, realising the  restrictions were there to stay and withdrew funds immediately, they would have received them by today, and quite possibly have had their new accounts somewhere else verified, ready to make a new deposit just about now.

Come on mate. I was bloody watching the GME chart and the UnusualWhales discord as it unfolded. The momentum broke as the news came out and and as it spread the price started to fall.

No matter what, these pains and tears are how it was to end for a lot of people, but the particular way the squeeze ended was absolutely linked to Robinhood and the other popular brokers shutting people's access off.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 01:25:01 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:21:33 PM
Yes. If they reacted superfast on Thursday, realising the  restrictions were there to stay and withdrew funds immediately, they would have received them by today, and quite possibly have had their new accounts somewhere else verified, ready to make a new deposit just about now.

Come on mate. I was bloody watching the GME chart and the UnusualWhales discord as it unfolded. The momentum broke as the news came out and and as it spread the price started to fall.

No matter what, these pains and tears are how it was to end for a lot of people, but the particular way the squeeze ended was absolutely linked to Robinhood and the other popular brokers shutting people's access off.

Did any of this compel owners of GME to sell their shares?  The price only drops when people sell.

FYI, I linked an interview upstream that says Ameritrade never stopped trading, only prohibited naked calls.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:32:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 01:25:01 PM


Did any of this compel owners of GME to sell their shares?  The price only drops when people sell.

FYI, I linked an interview upstream that says Ameritrade never stopped trading, only prohibited naked calls.

I would think so, as the narrative was that it'd be buying from retail investors that'd keep up the momentum.

Also it could had informed short sellers that further rise to the price is unlikely so they do not need to cover their shorts to prevent further losses.

Obviously it is speculation, but so is your assumption that stop in the upward momentum coincided with the Robinhood/other buying bans by mere accident.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 01:39:29 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 01, 2021, 11:02:12 AM
To AR's bet that the 1% are monopolizing the chance to short, I think there is a misconception that people in the 1% spend their time playing the public markets.

David Portnoy is lying about losing money on the Robin Hood app. The top 1% don't play in the public markets, as CC noted above, and we know CC is never wrong.

QuoteA lot of money of the 1% is actually chasing investment opportunities in the private equity market and those investors really could not care less about placing bets on which way the public market will fluctuate.

I missed this earlier...but it is worth mentioning that to participate in a lot of private equity or angel investing you have the same the same wealth and income tests as for hedge funds, so ordinary investors are frozen out by regulation.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2021, 01:40:23 PM
There's always going to be a certain number wanting to buy and wanting to sell.
Cutting off buy options artificially grossly distorted the ratio the opposite direction to the way it naturally was previously.

Regardless I may have called it too early. Still plenty with millions in who aren't giving up. The plumet isn't continuing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 01:51:33 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:32:28 PM
I would think so, as the narrative was that it'd be buying from retail investors that'd keep up the momentum.

Also it could had informed short sellers that further rise to the price is unlikely so they do not need to cover their shorts to prevent further losses.

Obviously it is speculation, but so is your assumption that stop in the upward momentum coincided with the Robinhood/other buying bans by mere accident.

What you are describing is not compulsion, it is choice.  No investor on the planet was compelled by Robinhood's action to sell his shares.  Any Robinhood investor could have been back buying with a 6 day lag.

Now I agree with you that for many buyers Robinhood's action changed the narrative.  But the creators of and believers in that narrative are responsible for it.  They created a new narrative in which they were beat by evil conspiring forces and had to sell.  That was their choice.  If all those owners had stayed true to the cause(tm) and held their shares the price would not have fallen.

It's owners who defected from the one true cause and sold shares who caused the scheme to collapse.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:52:14 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 01:40:23 PM
There's always going to be a certain number wanting to buy and wanting to sell.
Cutting off buy options artificially grossly distorted the ratio the opposite direction to the way it naturally was previously.

Regardless I may have called it too early. Still plenty with millions in who aren't giving up. The plumet isn't continuing.

It opened yesterday at 316, finished at 225. Today it is standing at 104. The plumet is real.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 01:55:18 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 01:40:23 PM
There's always going to be a certain number wanting to buy and wanting to sell.
Cutting off buy options artificially grossly distorted the ratio the opposite direction to the way it naturally was previously.

The way it was naturally when the price was $2, or the way it was naturally when the price was rising 10,000%?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:58:12 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 01:51:33 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:32:28 PM
I would think so, as the narrative was that it'd be buying from retail investors that'd keep up the momentum.

Also it could had informed short sellers that further rise to the price is unlikely so they do not need to cover their shorts to prevent further losses.

Obviously it is speculation, but so is your assumption that stop in the upward momentum coincided with the Robinhood/other buying bans by mere accident.

What you are describing is not compulsion, it is choice.  No investor on the planet was compelled by Robinhood's action to sell his shares.  Any Robinhood investor could have been back buying with a 6 day lag.

Now I agree with you that for many buyers Robinhood's action changed the narrative.  But the creators of and believers in that narrative are responsible for it.  They created a new narrative in which they were beat by evil conspiring forces and had to sell.  That was their choice.  If all those owners had stayed true to the cause(tm) and held their shares the price would not have fallen.

It's owners who defected from the one true cause and sold shares who caused the scheme to collapse.

Here is what you are ignoring: the strategy/expectation (for a lack of a better word) that people followed was that a drive to a $1000+ share price would be sustained by a continued influx of new retail funds as well as the resulting institutional short covering.

What the Robinhood and other bans confirmed -even if we accept that these bans were entirely innocent- was that the above strategy would not be sustainable because the brokers readily available for small investors were not able to cope with the scope and/or risk of the short squeeze. Robinhood themselves and the others admitted that much.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:10:25 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:58:12 PM
Here is what you are ignoring: the strategy/expectation (for a lack of a better word) that people followed was that a drive to a $1000+ share price would be sustained by a continued influx of new retail funds as well as the resulting institutional short covering.

What the Robinhood and other bans confirmed -even if we accept that these bans were entirely innocent- was that the above strategy would not be sustainable because the brokers readily available for small investors were not able to cope with the scope and/or risk of the short squeeze. Robinhood themselves and the others admitted that much.

Where does time sensitivity enter into this?  Where are the narrative creators telling their disciples that "if we let up for six days it will all collapse?"

Or for that matter, what's preventing people from starting over?  Gamestop is still heavily shorted.  Recruit some new people and do it again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 02, 2021, 02:12:51 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 01:01:08 PM
He ain't wrong though. That's the big take away from Cuban. Robinhood blocking access is when things turned.

What Cuban said is that the meme investors erred in counting on a thinly-capitalized broker-dealer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:16:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:10:25 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:58:12 PM
Here is what you are ignoring: the strategy/expectation (for a lack of a better word) that people followed was that a drive to a $1000+ share price would be sustained by a continued influx of new retail funds as well as the resulting institutional short covering.

What the Robinhood and other bans confirmed -even if we accept that these bans were entirely innocent- was that the above strategy would not be sustainable because the brokers readily available for small investors were not able to cope with the scope and/or risk of the short squeeze. Robinhood themselves and the others admitted that much.

Where does time sensitivity enter into this?  Where are the narrative creators telling their disciples that "if we let up for six days it will all collapse?"

Or for that matter, what's preventing people from starting over?  Gamestop is still heavily shorted.  Recruit some new people and do it again.

The catalyst for this originally was short interest wasn't it? It was well over 100%. Officialy NASDAQ numbers won't come out until the 9th but various outlets like Bloomberg have reported short interest around 40% the most.

But otherwise, if your argument is that this would have been an even more effective short squeeze if instead of a disjointed undisciplined and inexperienced massive horde of individuals it was done by a highly coordinated, organised, and disciplined horde of individuals, then of course you are right.

However, the original argument that you challenged was that the buying ban broke the momentum. Just because there are valid arguments for why it should not have broken it, it doesn't mean it did not break it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2021, 02:18:55 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 01:52:14 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 01:40:23 PM
There's always going to be a certain number wanting to buy and wanting to sell.
Cutting off buy options artificially grossly distorted the ratio the opposite direction to the way it naturally was previously.

Regardless I may have called it too early. Still plenty with millions in who aren't giving up. The plumet isn't continuing.

It opened yesterday at 316, finished at 225. Today it is standing at 104. The plumet is real.


It is now.
When they restricted sales it was still heading up
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:21:19 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:16:58 PM
The catalyst for this originally was short interest wasn't it? It was well over 100%. Officialy NASDAQ numbers won't come out until the 9th but various outlets like Bloomberg have reported short interest around 40% the most.

But otherwise, if your argument is that this would have been an even more effective short squeeze if instead of a disjointed undisciplined and inexperienced massive horde of individuals it was done by a highly coordinated, organised, and disciplined horde of individuals, then of course you are right.

However, the original argument that you challenged was that the buying ban broke the momentum. Just because there are valid arguments for why it should not have broken it, it doesn't mean it did not break it.

No, the statement I challenged was "Vlad stole my money."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:24:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:21:19 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:16:58 PM
The catalyst for this originally was short interest wasn't it? It was well over 100%. Officialy NASDAQ numbers won't come out until the 9th but various outlets like Bloomberg have reported short interest around 40% the most.

But otherwise, if your argument is that this would have been an even more effective short squeeze if instead of a disjointed undisciplined and inexperienced massive horde of individuals it was done by a highly coordinated, organised, and disciplined horde of individuals, then of course you are right.

However, the original argument that you challenged was that the buying ban broke the momentum. Just because there are valid arguments for why it should not have broken it, it doesn't mean it did not break it.

No, the statement I challenged was "Vlad stole my money."

Ok so you find it possible that the buying ban broke the squeeze's momentum?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:24:22 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 01:40:23 PM
The plumet isn't continuing.
Quote
It is now.

:hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:26:11 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:24:04 PM
Ok so you find it possible that the buying ban broke the squeeze's momentum?

I find it likely that a number of participants chose to react to the ban in a way that broke the squeeze's momentum.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2021, 02:27:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:24:22 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 01:40:23 PM
The plumet isn't continuing.
Quote
It is now.

:hmm:
It dropped a lot earlier today.
It is now fairly steady.
Checking up the 100 barrier has been crossed with no massed sell off resulting. Really suggests the WSB crew are sticking.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:30:05 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:26:11 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:24:04 PM
Ok so you find it possible that the buying ban broke the squeeze's momentum?

I find it likely that a number of participants chose to react to the ban in a way that broke the squeeze's momentum.

I'll take that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:34:57 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 02:27:48 PM
It dropped a lot earlier today.

Around the time you posted "it isn't plumeting?"
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:35:43 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:30:05 PM
I'll take that.

Of course that's leaving aside the question of why we're supposed to give a fuck about momentum.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 02, 2021, 02:38:19 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:34:57 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 02, 2021, 02:27:48 PM
It dropped a lot earlier today.

Around the time you posted "it isn't plumeting?"
No, around when I said looks like it's over.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:38:52 PM
I wonder if any shorts are using today's drop to take profit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:51:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:35:43 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:30:05 PM
I'll take that.

Of course that's leaving aside the question of why we're supposed to give a fuck about momentum.

I think that comes back to what as I recall you had trouble with earlier, namely that most people are influenced by emotions when trading. I am sure you are not, but many are.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 02, 2021, 02:55:29 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 02, 2021, 11:24:30 AM
The one totally on the nose comment Cuban made in that AMA (re Robinhood)

Quote
Yes. There will be class action suits. And you will win. And after legal feeds you will get your $4.00 settlement check

$4.00? That would be a pretty sweet class action lawsuit payout. Usually you get something like 85 cents.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 02, 2021, 02:58:02 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 02, 2021, 02:51:08 PM
I think that comes back to what as I recall you had trouble with earlier, namely that most people are influenced by emotions when trading. I am sure you are not, but many are.

OK.  So that leaves us with "Vlad didn't protect me from my own irrational response when halting trading due to regulatory requirements so that means he stole my money."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 05:07:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 02, 2021, 11:24:30 AM
The one totally on the nose comment Cuban made in that AMA (re Robinhood)

Quote
Yes. There will be class action suits. And you will win. And after legal feeds you will get your $4.00 settlement check

Whoa! So the big shot lawyers will get a handsome payday while the ordinary victims get $4? Seems like the deck is stacked against the little guy. :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 02, 2021, 05:17:57 PM
That is how class action lawsuits work. Each plaintiff gets very little but the entire point is to punish the corp for their bad behavior not get rich...well unless you are a lawyer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 02, 2021, 05:38:03 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 05:07:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 02, 2021, 11:24:30 AM
The one totally on the nose comment Cuban made in that AMA (re Robinhood)

Quote
Yes. There will be class action suits. And you will win. And after legal feeds you will get your $4.00 settlement check

Whoa! So the big shot lawyers will get a handsome payday while the ordinary victims get $4? Seems like the deck is stacked against the little guy. :(

You may misunderstand the purpose of a class action proceeding.

They were designed so that when large numbers of people have the same small individual claims, all those claims can be pursued at once.  Otherwise, there would be no way to prosecute their individual claims.  The damages they are entitled to remain the small amount the were entitled to in the first place.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 04:28:07 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 02, 2021, 05:38:03 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 05:07:19 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 02, 2021, 11:24:30 AM
The one totally on the nose comment Cuban made in that AMA (re Robinhood)

Quote
Yes. There will be class action suits. And you will win. And after legal feeds you will get your $4.00 settlement check

Whoa! So the big shot lawyers will get a handsome payday while the ordinary victims get $4? Seems like the deck is stacked against the little guy. :(

You may misunderstand the purpose of a class action proceeding.

They were designed so that when large numbers of people have the same small individual claims, all those claims can be pursued at once.  Otherwise, there would be no way to prosecute their individual claims.  The damages they are entitled to remain the small amount the were entitled to in the first place.

I understand the class action industry in the US well. One of the largest class action administrators was one of my main clients before I took a corporate job. It is how I know it is rife with abuse.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 04:34:41 AM
Bloody hell WSB was a sad read last night. Not so much the loss porn but more like the clearly upset people clinging on to false hope and sense of solidarity to justify their losses and continued pouring of money into this lost cause.

The few voices of reason are drowned out by DIAMON HANDS and HODL.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 03, 2021, 04:43:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 04:34:41 AM
Bloody hell WSB was a sad read last night. Not so much the loss porn but more like the clearly upset people clinging on to false hope and sense of solidarity to justify their losses and continued pouring of money into this lost cause.

The few voices of reason are drowned out by DIAMON HANDS and HODL.



Explains why the plummet stopped. Everyone who was in for a quick buck is gone leaving behind the true cultists and those playing a very long game who bought in at $2 or something.
Iirc all the shorts they were betting against were set quite a bit lower than $80, coming from the days when it had a sane price and was expected to drop even from that.
I am going to keep an eye on this, just on the off chance it isnt over. As said there are people with millions in this still
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 05:14:36 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 03, 2021, 04:43:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 04:34:41 AM
Bloody hell WSB was a sad read last night. Not so much the loss porn but more like the clearly upset people clinging on to false hope and sense of solidarity to justify their losses and continued pouring of money into this lost cause.

The few voices of reason are drowned out by DIAMON HANDS and HODL.



Explains why the plummet stopped. Everyone who was in for a quick buck is gone leaving behind the true cultists and those playing a very long game who bought in at $2 or something.
Iirc all the shorts they were betting against were set quite a bit lower than $80, coming from the days when it had a sane price and was expected to drop even from that.
I am going to keep an eye on this, just on the off chance it isnt over. As said there are people with millions in this still

It's going to $50 today. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2021, 05:19:11 AM
God I hope so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 03, 2021, 05:24:49 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 05:14:36 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 03, 2021, 04:43:43 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 04:34:41 AM
Bloody hell WSB was a sad read last night. Not so much the loss porn but more like the clearly upset people clinging on to false hope and sense of solidarity to justify their losses and continued pouring of money into this lost cause.

The few voices of reason are drowned out by DIAMON HANDS and HODL.



Explains why the plummet stopped. Everyone who was in for a quick buck is gone leaving behind the true cultists and those playing a very long game who bought in at $2 or something.
Iirc all the shorts they were betting against were set quite a bit lower than $80, coming from the days when it had a sane price and was expected to drop even from that.
I am going to keep an eye on this, just on the off chance it isnt over. As said there are people with millions in this still

It's going to $50 today. :P
That would be interesting. I've got a $60 figure in my head for some reason, though that does feel too high. Might just be the value when I first noticed this.

The question stands as to just what those with millions who didn't sell at the top are doing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 05:29:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2021, 05:19:11 AM
God I hope so.

I still have no reply from my CFD provider.  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 05:32:18 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 03, 2021, 05:24:49 AM

The question stands as to just what those with millions who didn't sell at the top are doing.

If they are men of honor, seppuku.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2021, 05:37:01 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 03, 2021, 05:32:18 AM
If they are men of honor, seppuku.

Waiting for Steiner's army.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 05:41:06 AM
I would assume most of them have covered. It is the people buying around 300-400 who are still holding. It's pretty standard to cling to your losing ones hoping for a miracle.

The main guy who started this whole thing DFV or whoever, allegedly he has already cashed out $10+ million but continues to hold the rest (and already lost like close to $20 mill since the top).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2021, 07:49:40 AM
Holding steady at 90 pre-market!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2021, 10:21:31 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 02, 2021, 05:07:19 PM
Whoa! So the big shot lawyers will get a handsome payday while the ordinary victims get $4? Seems like the deck is stacked against the little guy. :(

Now you're on the right track . . .
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2021, 10:22:32 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 04:34:41 AM
Bloody hell WSB was a sad read last night. Not so much the loss porn but more like the clearly upset people clinging on to false hope and sense of solidarity to justify their losses and continued pouring of money into this lost cause.

The few voices of reason are drowned out by DIAMON HANDS and HODL.

How long did they think the stock was going to stick at $500+ per share?   
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 03, 2021, 10:23:56 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2021, 10:22:32 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 04:34:41 AM
Bloody hell WSB was a sad read last night. Not so much the loss porn but more like the clearly upset people clinging on to false hope and sense of solidarity to justify their losses and continued pouring of money into this lost cause.

The few voices of reason are drowned out by DIAMON HANDS and HODL.

How long did they think the stock was going to stick at $500+ per share?   
Not long. They expected a repeat of Vauxhall in 2008 with a peak at above 1000 before crashing as everyone sells to shorters
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on February 03, 2021, 10:41:04 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2021, 10:22:32 AM
Quote from: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 04:34:41 AM
Bloody hell WSB was a sad read last night. Not so much the loss porn but more like the clearly upset people clinging on to false hope and sense of solidarity to justify their losses and continued pouring of money into this lost cause.

The few voices of reason are drowned out by DIAMON HANDS and HODL.

How long did they think the stock was going to stick at $500+ per share?   

Well you did have luminaries like Ja Rule telling them to #holdtheline
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2021, 10:59:30 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 03, 2021, 10:23:56 AM
Not long. They expected a repeat of Vauxhall in 2008 with a peak at above 1000 before crashing as everyone sells to shorters

Do you mean Volkswagen?  Googling Vauxhall short squeeze gives me nothing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 03, 2021, 11:25:40 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2021, 10:59:30 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 03, 2021, 10:23:56 AM
Not long. They expected a repeat of Vauxhall in 2008 with a peak at above 1000 before crashing as everyone sells to shorters

Do you mean Volkswagen?  Googling Vauxhall short squeeze gives me nothing.

Yes I think he meant VW. But also if you are looking to find Vauxhall you need to look for Opel.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 03, 2021, 11:54:28 AM
Yes, meant Volkswagen, mind went elsewhere.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2021, 12:59:51 PM
Hmm looks the reddit investors won their war against the shorts only to get run over by their quant fund "allies"
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2021, 01:02:04 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2021, 12:59:51 PM
Hmm looks the reddit investors won their war against the shorts only to get run over by their quant fund "allies"

Please explain.

Not sure about winning the war against the shorts.  The second wave (Citron and one other fund who's name I can't remember) must have made money on the drop from 400 to 80.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2021, 01:20:29 PM
Once the reddit buyers got the squeeze train rolling, the funds that trade on algorithmic strategies or momentum piled in and presumably took profits leaving the diamond hands holding the bag on the downside.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 04, 2021, 10:15:38 AM
GameStop rout continues. :yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2021, 02:45:24 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsXvGrHmYlM

Koss insiders unloaded shares on redditeers. :nelson:

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 04, 2021, 02:53:57 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2021, 02:45:24 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsXvGrHmYlM

Koss insiders unloaded shares on redditeers. :nelson:


Probably not the actual WSB people who lost out but those who heard from a friend of a friend that anything mentioned there was a get rich quick scheme.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 04, 2021, 02:55:36 PM
I'd take the class warfare angle more seriously if these guys would go into more blue collar stocks like Air Products and Chemicals, as opposed to a gaming retailer and a fancy headphone company.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2021, 03:02:41 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 04, 2021, 02:53:57 PM
Probably not the actual WSB people who lost out but those who heard from a friend of a friend that anything mentioned there was a get rich quick scheme.

Why do you think so?

Because the actual WSB people have demonstrated how astute and savvy they are, like the guy from Boston you said lost 10 million?

Even the very first movers on any of these short squeezes were paying owners way above market prices for their shares.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 04, 2021, 03:05:21 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2021, 03:02:41 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 04, 2021, 02:53:57 PM
Probably not the actual WSB people who lost out but those who heard from a friend of a friend that anything mentioned there was a get rich quick scheme.

Why do you think so?

Because the actual WSB people have demonstrated how astute and savvy they are, like the guy from Boston you said lost 10 million?

Even the very first movers on any of these short squeezes were paying owners way above market prices for their shares.
Because they were all buying Gamestop.
Koss wasn't even one of the main secondaries.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2021, 03:11:40 PM
OK.  Only WSB stuff I've ever read is that Cuban thread you linked, so if you say they didn't buy Koss I'll take your word for it.

Not sure what difference that makes.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 04, 2021, 04:42:27 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 04, 2021, 02:55:36 PM
I'd take the class warfare angle more seriously if these guys would go into more blue collar stocks like Air Products and Chemicals, as opposed to a gaming retailer and a fancy headphone company.

People who work at Gamestop are not lower class?

Anyway it was selected because of how shorted it was. Not every stock is that manipulatable. Is investing in Air Products going to bankrupt any hedge funds or anything?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 04, 2021, 04:52:32 PM
Well I mentioned Air Products because the bears have pushed it down recently. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 04, 2021, 05:06:06 PM
If the point is to stick it to "Wall Street," they also picked the wrong target.  In the list of big Wall Street bad boys, I'd put long-short hedgies or short-focused funds way down the list.   PE and debt traders near the top, commodities traders somewhere up there.  Even in the hedge fund world I'd put the shorts and long-shorts behind NFT and the quant focused funds.  The latter tend to add to market instability but the shorts and long-shorts are stabilizing.  In an equity market dominated by passive index trackers, there needs to be some critical mass of active institutional-level investors to keep the pricing honest. Long only active managers can do that indirectly, but there is definitely a place and use for long-short and shorts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2021, 06:13:38 PM
GME 49.85 after hours.  You were a day off Tamas.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2021, 08:58:35 PM
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/reddit-gamestop-booster-under-regulatory-scrutiny-11612457594

Roaring Kitty is a registered broker.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2021, 03:53:27 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VUql_xILpI

Dude reads what he claims is the very first WSB Gamestop post.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 05, 2021, 04:13:18 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 04, 2021, 06:13:38 PM
GME 49.85 after hours.  You were a day off Tamas.

And the CFD broker just wrote they can give me my loss from the glitch back but that's it.  :mad: Bloody morons I would have been up almost 200 pounds.

Well, there goes their future income from my reckless gambling.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 05, 2021, 05:10:38 AM
CFDs...all I know of them is stay away.

And OK, this one is funny.
(https://i.redd.it/ofjr3m1awlf61.jpg)

Seems the whole thing has been very good for gamestop though. They've gone on quite a recruitment drive.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 05, 2021, 06:27:09 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 05, 2021, 05:10:38 AM
CFDs...all I know of them is stay away.


In general yes, but in Europe they are your only practical way to short a US stock unless you can meet the requirements with the couple of brokerages offering US options.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2021, 09:59:33 AM
Very weird.  I'm looking to cut my losses on my GME put that I paid 210 for.  The bid on the 36 put is 62 cents, the bid on the 34 put is 46 cents.

And the bid on the 35 put is five cents. :mellow:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 05, 2021, 10:16:42 AM
Seems to be a big rally on for gamestop... And trading halted on it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: viper37 on February 07, 2021, 07:51:54 PM
If I buy stocks from a Swedish company listed in the Stockholm stock exchange, do I have to pay capital gains taxes over there, if and when I sell them at profit or is the capital gain realized in Canada, my country of residence?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 07, 2021, 09:56:32 PM
Not Spotify?  I know that is listed on the NYSE.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 08, 2021, 10:43:39 AM
I bought a Canadian stock once (Shaw Communications), and got hit with some Canadian tax...I didn't want to deal with that noise, so I dumped the stock shortly after for a small profit.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 11:14:42 AM
Tesla announces purchase of $1.5 billion in bitcoin.  Questions whether he was manipulating the price in his tweets.  Tesla shares up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 08, 2021, 12:04:17 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 08, 2021, 10:43:39 AM
I bought a Canadian stock once (Shaw Communications), and got hit with some Canadian tax...I didn't want to deal with that noise, so I dumped the stock shortly after for a small profit.  :sleep:

How does that work? Did you buy it on a Canadian exchange or something?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 12:13:16 PM
Etrade used to allow trading on a number of foreign exchanges (Toronto, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Germany are the ones I remember) but they discontinued it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 08, 2021, 12:31:32 PM
My Dutch stock brokers let me buy shares almost everywhere altough not everything. Options and shorting only on euro stuff, and different fees based on market. Oddly enough US is cheaper than Europe.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 08, 2021, 12:56:17 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 08, 2021, 10:43:39 AM
I bought a Canadian stock once (Shaw Communications), and got hit with some Canadian tax...I didn't want to deal with that noise, so I dumped the stock shortly after for a small profit.  :sleep:

There is no tax for purchasing a stock in Canada.  The tax part comes in if you sell and have a capital gain or if you get dividend income.  Shaw regularly pays dividends and so that is probably what happened - you were paying tax on your dividend income.  I don't know how the US Canada tax treaty works for US residents, but I suspect you would only have had to pay tax on that dividend on your US tax return and not in Canada.

But yeah, before investing in a foreign jurisdiction, and especially if you are a resident of a country that taxes on world wide income like the US, its a good idea to know the tax implications ahead of time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 08, 2021, 01:05:24 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 08, 2021, 12:56:17 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 08, 2021, 10:43:39 AM
I bought a Canadian stock once (Shaw Communications), and got hit with some Canadian tax...I didn't want to deal with that noise, so I dumped the stock shortly after for a small profit.  :sleep:

There is no tax for purchasing a stock in Canada.  The tax part comes in if you sell and have a capital gain or if you get dividend income.  Shaw regularly pays dividends and so that is probably what happened - you were paying tax on your dividend income.  I don't know how the US Canada tax treaty works for US residents, but I suspect you would only have had to pay tax on that dividend on your US tax return and not in Canada.

But yeah, before investing in a foreign jurisdiction, and especially if you are a resident of a country that taxes on world wide income like the US, its a good idea to know the tax implications ahead of time.

Yep, that was it.  I was attracted to Shaw because their dividend yield was pretty good.  As I recall, the tax was deducted automatically by my broker...it was a relatively trivial amount, and I never followed up on the legalities of it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 08, 2021, 01:11:45 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 08, 2021, 01:05:24 PM
Yep, that was it.  I was attracted to Shaw because their dividend yield was pretty good.  As I recall, the tax was deducted automatically by my broker...it was a relatively trivial amount, and I never followed up on the legalities of it.

I was wondering why Shaw specifically - I mean it's a fine company, but not one I'd go out of my way to invest in a foreign jurisdiction.  But that makes sense.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 08, 2021, 01:30:50 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 08, 2021, 01:11:45 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on February 08, 2021, 01:05:24 PM
Yep, that was it.  I was attracted to Shaw because their dividend yield was pretty good.  As I recall, the tax was deducted automatically by my broker...it was a relatively trivial amount, and I never followed up on the legalities of it.

I was wondering why Shaw specifically - I mean it's a fine company, but not one I'd go out of my way to invest in a foreign jurisdiction.  But that makes sense.

It is a bit of a darling stock for people who pursue a dividend income strategy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: viper37 on February 08, 2021, 01:39:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 07, 2021, 09:56:32 PM
Not Spotify?  I know that is listed on the NYSE.
no, another company that does not seem listed in NA, only on Europe's stock exchanges. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on February 09, 2021, 04:15:59 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 11:14:42 AM
Tesla announces purchase of $1.5 billion in bitcoin.  Questions whether he was manipulating the price in his tweets.  Tesla shares up.

What's the play here for Tesla? Hope that they can help drive bitcoin to be firmly entrenched in the mainstream?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 09, 2021, 04:23:51 AM
Quote from: garbon on February 09, 2021, 04:15:59 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2021, 11:14:42 AM
Tesla announces purchase of $1.5 billion in bitcoin.  Questions whether he was manipulating the price in his tweets.  Tesla shares up.

What's the play here for Tesla? Hope that they can help drive bitcoin to be firmly entrenched in the mainstream?

Or be the #1 choice for drug dealers?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2021, 04:37:41 AM
Quote from: garbon on February 09, 2021, 04:15:59 AM
What's the play here for Tesla? Hope that they can help drive bitcoin to be firmly entrenched in the mainstream?

Speculation?  PR?  It looks pretty fruity to me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 10:17:17 AM
Pot stocks exploding.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 11:10:11 AM
Did some big news just hit that we all missed?  Share prices just suddenly dropped.

Took advantage of the drop in Tesla to sell a 2/12 put @740 for $494.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2021, 11:11:29 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 10:17:17 AM
Pot stocks exploding.

There are rumors that Congress is going to decriminalize pot nationwide.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 10, 2021, 11:11:50 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 10, 2021, 11:11:29 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 10:17:17 AM
Pot stocks exploding.

There are rumors that Congress is going to decriminalize pot nationwide.

:wub:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 11:14:01 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 10, 2021, 11:11:29 AM
There are rumors that Congress is going to decriminalize pot nationwide.

I don't think the federal government has that authority.

Might you be confusing discussion of legalization of banking by pot producers?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on February 10, 2021, 11:18:29 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 11:14:01 AM
I don't think the federal government has that authority.

Ok Mr. Pedant. I meant the rumor is that they are not making it a Federal Crime anymore. States are, of course, welcome to continue to make it a crime.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2021, 11:20:42 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 11:14:01 AM
Quote from: Valmy on February 10, 2021, 11:11:29 AM
There are rumors that Congress is going to decriminalize pot nationwide.

I don't think the federal government has that authority.

Might you be confusing discussion of legalization of banking by pot producers?

My understanding is there has been no end of confusion because pot has been legalized in some US states, but remains illegal federally.  Obama decided not to prosecute federal drug laws in jurisdictions which legalized it but the law remains on the books which is what has caused the banking problems you mentioned.

But yes if pot is legalized federally it would remain illegal in states that have laws against possessing it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on February 10, 2021, 11:21:17 AM
And Sessions absolutely loved using the DoJ against pot. While, as you say, Obama didn't and Barr didn't.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 11:26:57 AM
To clarify, you guys are saying possession, use, or distribution without an interstate commerce nexus are federal crimes?

I blew it on the Tesla put.  Should have sold a much, much longer option to lock in that premium.  Wasn't thinking clearly.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on February 10, 2021, 12:19:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 11:10:11 AM
Did some big news just hit that we all missed?  Share prices just suddenly dropped.

Took advantage of the drop in Tesla to sell a 2/12 put @740 for $494.

Might be skittishness on the Bitcoin thing finally hitting...and China gave them a quality-control dressing down the other day.

I'm thinking of bailing on it soon. 

That and Model X interior refresh sucks ass, so that is off the table as a future purchase.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 10, 2021, 01:53:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on February 10, 2021, 11:11:29 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 10:17:17 AM
Pot stocks exploding.

There are rumors that Congress is going to decriminalize pot nationwide.

Weed stocks have been skyrocketing for like a month now on that news.

I think the dip is simply taking profits before the Feds guy is talking today. There's been a lot of rallying.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on February 10, 2021, 01:58:07 PM
Just as a warning - in this country pot stocks exploded before and shortly after legalization in October 2019, but slumped badly in the year following.

Perhaps the old "by on rumour, sell on news" approach.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 10, 2021, 02:04:00 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 10, 2021, 01:58:07 PM
Just as a warning - in this country pot stocks exploded before and shortly after legalization in October 2019, but slumped badly in the year following.

Perhaps the old "by on rumour, sell on news" approach.

Tamas and I have both owned CGC since before the slump.  :)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 10, 2021, 02:07:48 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 10, 2021, 01:58:07 PM
Just as a warning - in this country pot stocks exploded before and shortly after legalization in October 2019, but slumped badly in the year following.

Perhaps the old "by on rumour, sell on news" approach.

Yeah, thanks. I bought Canopy just before the burst of the previous bubble. But my shares went from -40% in value to +60% since Biden took over.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 10, 2021, 02:25:28 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 10, 2021, 01:58:07 PM
Just as a warning - in this country pot stocks exploded before and shortly after legalization in October 2019, but slumped badly in the year following.

Perhaps the old "by on rumour, sell on news" approach.

The smart investors were buying in initially on the hope that it would become easier to sell in the US.  And that is what is happening.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: PDH on February 10, 2021, 02:37:45 PM
By high, sell cheap - that was my Dad's mantra. 


He died with about $1100.00 left so his timing was okay at least.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2021, 02:21:38 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXwqmXxJBH0

Pot stock discussion.

Fun fact: Canuck companies are all listed in the US, US companies all listed in Canada.

There appears to be a WSB short squeeze attack on Tilray, but dude points out it's not a true short because the shorts are abritraging between Tilray and another company being aquired, so the squeeze won't work. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 11, 2021, 02:25:33 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2021, 02:21:38 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXwqmXxJBH0

Pot stock discussion.

Fun fact: Canuck companies are all listed in the US, US companies all listed in Canada.

There appears to be a WSB short squeeze attack on Tilray, but dude points out it's not a true short because the shorts are abritraging between Tilray and another company being aquired, so the squeeze won't work.

Weed stocks plummeted this morning, don't get engrossed in this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2021, 02:30:46 PM
Why they ran up and why they ran down is interesting to me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 11, 2021, 04:04:25 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2021, 02:30:46 PM
Why they ran up and why they ran down is interesting to me.

People bought and people sold.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 11, 2021, 04:09:00 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 11, 2021, 04:04:25 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2021, 02:30:46 PM
Why they ran up and why they ran down is interesting to me.

People bought and people sold.
I guess what Yi is wondering about is why people bought and people sold these stocks at one price one day, and why people bought and people sold these stocks at a very different price the next day.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 11, 2021, 04:11:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 11, 2021, 04:09:00 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on February 11, 2021, 04:04:25 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 11, 2021, 02:30:46 PM
Why they ran up and why they ran down is interesting to me.

People bought and people sold.
I guess what Yi is wondering about is why people bought and people sold these stocks at one price one day, and why people bought and people sold these stocks at a very different price the next day.

Yeah, and that is the joke.  Anyone who says they can figure that out probably has a bridge or two to sell as well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 16, 2021, 10:11:44 AM
Sold 3/26 TSLA put @740 for $3,600.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 18, 2021, 02:58:56 PM
Everything seems down right this week.
Lunar new year? Or the start of the collapse?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 18, 2021, 03:14:47 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 18, 2021, 02:58:56 PM
Everything seems down right this week.
Lunar new year? Or the start of the collapse?

IDK but after the big runs lately this doesn't feel catastrophic just yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 18, 2021, 03:51:08 PM
Vad Tenev and Keith Gill (aka Roaring Kitty) go to the same barber.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2021, 01:59:21 PM
Anyone watch any of the Gamestop hearings?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HCkgjJFguo

AOC grilling Vlad.  Goofy, but not as goofy as I was hoping for.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 19, 2021, 02:02:57 PM
I watched a lot of it, yeah. Waters grilling Vlad was the usual Congressional dumbassery. "Isn't it true that...?" style "questions" are insufferable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 19, 2021, 02:56:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2021, 01:59:21 PM
Anyone watch any of the Gamestop hearings?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HCkgjJFguo

AOC grilling Vlad.  Goofy, but not as goofy as I was hoping for.

Her questions seemed cogent but the format doesn't allow for a real substantive back-and-and forth.
Also someone needs to tell Vlad that just because 2 Beatles died doesn't mean there are plans to audition new members.  And even if that was the plan I doubt they'd go bac to the 1963 look.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 19, 2021, 03:01:01 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 19, 2021, 02:56:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2021, 01:59:21 PM
Anyone watch any of the Gamestop hearings?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HCkgjJFguo

AOC grilling Vlad.  Goofy, but not as goofy as I was hoping for.

Her questions seemed cogent but the format doesn't allow for a real substantive back-and-and forth.
Also someone needs to tell Vlad that just because 2 Beatles died doesn't mean there are plans to audition new members.  And even if that was the plan I doubt they'd go bac to the 1963 look.

Whether one agrees with her policy positions or not, she is always well prepared and asks informed questions.  Like getting him to explain why saying that his service had no fees wasnt just a bit misleading.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2021, 03:15:50 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 19, 2021, 02:56:38 PM
Her questions seemed cogent but the format doesn't allow for a real substantive back-and-and forth.
Also someone needs to tell Vlad that just because 2 Beatles died doesn't mean there are plans to audition new members.  And even if that was the plan I doubt they'd go bac to the 1963 look.

You say cogent, I say goofy. 

Her first question was a conclusion posing as a question, which, in her defense, is about the only type of question asked at Congressional hearings.  I'm referring to the question about the need to halt trading because of insufficient deposits at the central clearing house being a result of Robinhood's ineptitude.  What this means if all brokers would need to maintain an infinite deposit at the clearing house to avoid the charge of ineptitude.

She asked another question about returning payment for order flow to Robinhood customers.  That's the only revenue Robinhood derives from its "commission free trading."  She wants Robinhood (and presumably all retail brokers) to continue to process trades without revenue.  That's goofy.

I recently learned that other countries don't allow payment for order flow, which is why they still charge commissions for trades.  If you want to do it that way, more power to you.  But that is not the choice AOC's questions were getting at.  Her questions were about Robinhood is the bad guy, do it for free.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 19, 2021, 03:54:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2021, 03:15:50 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 19, 2021, 02:56:38 PM
Her questions seemed cogent but the format doesn't allow for a real substantive back-and-and forth.
Also someone needs to tell Vlad that just because 2 Beatles died doesn't mean there are plans to audition new members.  And even if that was the plan I doubt they'd go bac to the 1963 look.

You say cogent, I say goofy. 

Her first question was a conclusion posing as a question, which, in her defense, is about the only type of question asked at Congressional hearings.  I'm referring to the question about the need to halt trading because of insufficient deposits at the central clearing house being a result of Robinhood's ineptitude.  What this means if all brokers would need to maintain an infinite deposit at the clearing house to avoid the charge of ineptitude.

She asked another question about returning payment for order flow to Robinhood customers.  That's the only revenue Robinhood derives from its "commission free trading."  She wants Robinhood (and presumably all retail brokers) to continue to process trades without revenue.  That's goofy.

I recently learned that other countries don't allow payment for order flow, which is why they still charge commissions for trades.  If you want to do it that way, more power to you.  But that is not the choice AOC's questions were getting at.  Her questions were about Robinhood is the bad guy, do it for free.

Only if you are completely disingenuous.   Her point is that not disclosing there is a cost is misleading.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 19, 2021, 11:09:59 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2021, 03:15:50 PM
I'm referring to the question about the need to halt trading because of insufficient deposits at the central clearing house being a result of Robinhood's ineptitude.  What this means if all brokers would need to maintain an infinite deposit at the clearing house to avoid the charge of ineptitude.

I may be giving her the benefit of the doubt but I didn't interpret the question that way.  I don't think she was suggesting they need to maintain infinite deposits - that would be pretty goofy.  I think she was suggesting that *given their business model* their reserves were insufficient.  I.e. if you market yourself to mass market day traders and encourage lots of trading and margin usage and if your business model is pushing rapid account growth, then you should be prepared for high volatility days with unusually high trading activity.  It is perfectly legitimate to inquire whether they carried sufficient capital to meet their obligations to maintain orderly operations for customers and what methods they used to determine appropriate capital levels.

QuoteShe asked another question about returning payment for order flow to Robinhood customers.  That's the only revenue Robinhood derives from its "commission free trading."  She wants Robinhood (and presumably all retail brokers) to continue to process trades without revenue.  That's goofy.

Again I interpret it differently.  First there is a faulty premise - namely, that the only alternatives are transaction commissions or PFOF.  Not so - Fidelity charges zero commissions on stock trades and does not sell order flow on equities (they do PFOF on options).  Their strategy is to entice account holders to pay for pricey advice or retirement planning services. Admittedly their target customer is not likely a WSB stonk trader.

Second PFOF is a controversial practice for a reason.  If the order flow is taken off exchange as is common, there is no real guarantee of best execution, which means the customer could be paying nickels (poor execution pricing or larger buy-sell spreads) to save pennies (commissions).  To what extent is this true?  Hard to say because there is little insight into pricing where the market maker executes internally.  So this is an area of legitimate interest to Congress as regulator with relevant issues including: how does PFOF affect spreads and customer execution prices, to what extent are customers informed of the practice, and to what extent are customers properly informed of the potential tradeoffs.

What I found slightly goofy was the non-substantive response which basically says - yes we sell order flow and now everyone does it.  But that doesn't get to whether it is really a good deal for the customer or whether the customer understands what is going on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 19, 2021, 11:36:46 PM
Joan, when you said her questions were cogent, were you talking about the actual words that came out of her mouth, or what they might have been had you had a chance to rewrite them?

She contextualized her "question" about clearing house deposits by mentioning the crash Robinhood experienced a while back.  She was trying to paint a picture of ineptitude, not open a dialogue about sufficient reserves to maintain orderly processing.  Note that Robinhood has not had a problem up to now with clearing house deposits, even though their customer demographic has not changed AFAIK.

I'm aware of the issues around payment for order flow.  She raised none of them.  She asked if Robinhood was willing to pass them on to its customers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 20, 2021, 12:35:04 AM
I guess my standards are lower . . . the fact that she identified relevant topic areas and didn't just condemn Wall Street out of hand seemed encouraging :)
I also don't expect people in Congress to ask proper questions.  Even if they had the ability to do it right, they don't have the time to conduct a proper cross-examination.  Plus they need to send a clean sound bite back home.

And I don't think its unfair to suggest the possibility of  ineptitude when a securities firm is forced to halt trading by their regular customers. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 20, 2021, 12:50:20 AM
Prior to the events of the last few weeks would you have said a reasonable, competent brokerage should have kept enough cash on hand to float coordinated, massive purchases that drove stock prices up 1,000%? 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 20, 2021, 01:47:20 AM
Extreme volatility events are pretty common on Wall Street.  Far more common than a normal statistical distribution would suggest.  So the answer is maybe.  I would want to know how they modeled their needs internally and what assumptions they made.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 20, 2021, 03:54:53 AM

I've been meaning to catch the highlights of this at least. Proved rather hard to find so far
Will try again this weekend.
QuoteNot so - Fidelity charges zero commissions on stock trades and does not sell order flow on equities

:unsure:
Is this a recent trade or only in US thing?
I tried using fidelity for a bit. Free for etf trades but stocks I avoided as they charge 10 quid a pop.
Also the interface is one of the worst things ever
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 20, 2021, 10:40:25 AM
I didn't know Fidelity was even available outside the US.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 20, 2021, 12:13:44 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 20, 2021, 03:54:53 AM

I've been meaning to catch the highlights of this at least. Proved rather hard to find so far
Will try again this weekend.
QuoteNot so - Fidelity charges zero commissions on stock trades and does not sell order flow on equities

:unsure:
Is this a recent trade or only in US thing?
I tried using fidelity for a bit. Free for etf trades but stocks I avoided as they charge 10 quid a pop.
Also the interface is one of the worst things ever

Tyr, it might be too late with Brexit having happened and all, but if all you want is stocks and none of the gambling stuff (so, no CFDs and no US options) then check out Degiro.  They are a Dutch outfit but  other than having the risk of dealing with the relevant Dutch authority to reclaim your insured deposit if they go bust, they are very much legit.

Compared to all other brokers available in the UK that I have checked, they have super-low commissions. For US stocks it's something like £0.60 per transaction. And of course it being a legit brokerage you get dividend payments as well, just got my cca. 8 pounds worth (they deduct tax as well) from Intel.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 23, 2021, 01:30:54 PM
I shall look into this degiro. Paying for transactions sits uneasy however.
I'm being hit hard lately with my long term investments suffering from the exchange rate. The pound is getting back towards pre no deal levels and the dollar has beoxome very weak. Wish I could sell and keep the money in dollars.
What's going on with the dollar falling?

Pretty bad days lately. Something is going on.
And
BBC News - Bitcoin: Elon Musk loses world's richest title as Tesla falters
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56174404
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2021, 03:44:14 PM
I see the dollar falling from .825 euros to .82 euros.  :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 25, 2021, 05:34:12 PM
CORRECTION ON
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2021, 05:38:41 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 25, 2021, 05:34:12 PM
CORRECTION ON
Ey?
I've noticed things being generally down and more gme insanity. Something else on?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 25, 2021, 05:44:59 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 25, 2021, 05:38:41 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 25, 2021, 05:34:12 PM
CORRECTION ON
Ey?
I've noticed things being generally down and more gme insanity. Something else on?

I mean, we had an insane bull market for the past 6 months or so. Eventually things must go down for a bit.

I'd guess a longer term thin that may happen is the switch from meme stocks and ridiculously overvalued speculative plays like Tesla back into companies with actual value.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 25, 2021, 06:06:55 PM
Quote from: Tyr on February 25, 2021, 05:38:41 PM
Ey?
I've noticed things being generally down and more gme insanity. Something else on?

My portfollio, which is tech-heavy, has been getting massacred since Monday, when alarm bells sounded about rising interest rates.  Like Tamas mentioned, my dividend and value stuff has not been much affected.

What do you own?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 25, 2021, 06:26:27 PM
I'm pretty varied.
A lot in green energy; bet on a Biden win before the election, which is pretty sharply down over the last week though today was less bad.
CLNE is one where I've regret of not selling at the top, still think it should recover though.
Workhorse too... No idea what's next there. Obvious reasons for its collapse.
In random stuff sold bank of Montreal at the top though ( can't remember the reasoning but Canadian banks seemed a good bet and it looked the most under priced) so there's that.
Bought some air travel related stuff at the bottom too which is starting to go up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 25, 2021, 08:22:40 PM
If you don't mind my asking Squeeze, back in March 20 did you dribble and drabble or did you go all in like I suggested?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 26, 2021, 03:26:09 AM
Absolutely not all in no, very much trying to keep this gambling habit under control with small bits every month, part to secure long term investments and part to spec stuff.
If I had put all my money into some things last year I'd be well up but on the other hand I just know I would have chose the wrong ones. Still learning with all this
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2021, 05:48:10 AM
I wish you wouldn't think of buying shares as gambling.  Options, yes, shares no.  Shares are an asset that over time is going to grow geometrically.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 26, 2021, 09:34:25 AM
Tyr, when considering whether Yi's approach to purchasing shares is gambling or not, consider his phraseology of "going all in"
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 26, 2021, 09:39:29 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 26, 2021, 03:26:09 AM
Absolutely not all in no, very much trying to keep this gambling habit under control with small bits every month, part to secure long term investments and part to spec stuff.
If I had put all my money into some things last year I'd be well up but on the other hand I just know I would have chose the wrong ones. Still learning with all this

Is the money you're putting in purely gambling money or is this meant to be part of your retirement plan as well?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2021, 01:21:19 PM
Bought some more CRSP.  Sold an Uber 3/26 put @50.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 27, 2021, 10:33:48 AM
Quote
Is the money you're putting in purely gambling money or is this meant to be part of your retirement plan as well?
I don't think I'll reach an age to be in a state to think about retirement. If I do then I just have to hope my kids like me. Such is the way for millennials and younger.
So no. Not thinking about stocks with an eye to this. Though it does remind me I need to get on top of moving my Swiss pension into an account without charges.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 26, 2021, 05:48:10 AM
I wish you wouldn't think of buying shares as gambling.  Options, yes, shares no.  Shares are an asset that over time is going to grow geometrically.

It's safer than most gambling for sure. You are highly unlikely to lose ALL the money you put in. And it isn't as dependent on luck as walking into a casino or even betting on sports.
Nonetheless compared to just keeping money in the bank even the best etf is a slight gamble. Stocks more so.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 27, 2021, 10:36:54 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 27, 2021, 10:33:48 AM
Such is the way for millennials and younger.

:rolleyes:

QuoteSo no. Not thinking about stocks with an eye to this. Though it does remind me I need to get on top of moving my Swiss pension into an account without charges.

Do you not see the disconnect here? This is a terrible way to think about investing.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 27, 2021, 10:39:48 AM
I think a good definition to separate gambling from (possibly risky) investment is whether the expected return is positive or negative, after all expenses and such.  There is an inflection point there: if your expected returns are positive, then you want to minimize the volatility as much as possible to maximize your chance of making a profit.  If your expected returns are negative, then you want to push the volatility up without bound to maximize your chance of making a profit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 27, 2021, 11:21:02 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on February 27, 2021, 10:36:54 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 27, 2021, 10:33:48 AM
Such is the way for millennials and younger.

:rolleyes:

QuoteSo no. Not thinking about stocks with an eye to this. Though it does remind me I need to get on top of moving my Swiss pension into an account without charges.

Do you not see the disconnect here? This is a terrible way to think about investing.


No. I don't get your meaning.
Not being overly concerned with building a pension doesn't mean I want to actively lose pension money if its avoidable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2021, 04:06:47 PM
In the long run investing is not gambling.  It's a sure thing.  There is a chance the market crashes and you lose 40% the day after you decide to buy.  But I guarantee that in 15 years that investment will have grown more than if you had put it in a bank.

There is also the risk of an individual company cratering.  That's why you diversify.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 27, 2021, 05:09:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2021, 04:06:47 PM
In the long run investing is not gambling.  It's a sure thing.  There is a chance the market crashes and you lose 40% the day after you decide to buy.  But I guarantee that in 15 years that investment will have grown more than if you had put it in a bank.

There is also the risk of an individual company cratering.  That's why you diversify.
Be careful with financial guarantees.  I think history shows that 15 years isn't a long enough period to guarantee a positive return.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 27, 2021, 05:16:57 PM
One of the signs it is time to sell - someone claims equities are a sure thing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2021, 05:29:13 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 27, 2021, 05:09:15 PM
Be careful with financial guarantees.  I think history shows that 15 years isn't a long enough period to guarantee a positive return.

Since the creation of the Dutch East Indies Company I can think of two cases that break that rule.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 27, 2021, 06:56:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2021, 05:29:13 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 27, 2021, 05:09:15 PM
Be careful with financial guarantees.  I think history shows that 15 years isn't a long enough period to guarantee a positive return.

Since the creation of the Dutch East Indies Company I can think of two cases that break that rule.
What are those?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2021, 07:01:46 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 27, 2021, 06:56:17 PM
What are those?

Great Depression and Japan 80s.

South Sea bubble and Louisiana bubble don't count because they were single companies, not entire markets.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on February 27, 2021, 07:39:54 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2021, 07:01:46 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 27, 2021, 06:56:17 PM
What are those?

Great Depression and Japan 80s.

South Sea bubble and Louisiana bubble don't count because they were single companies, not entire markets.
The Dotcom Bubble may or may not make the cut, by a small margin either way.  The S&P 500 went from 1510 to 1865 in the 15.5 year period from the middle of 2000.  That's 1.4% annualized return, which back then was probably doable in the saving account.  The Obama recovery in the last couple of years of that 15.5 year period made a huge difference.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2021, 08:06:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 27, 2021, 07:39:54 PM
The Dotcom Bubble may or may not make the cut, by a small margin either way.  The S&P 500 went from 1510 to 1865 in the 15.5 year period from the middle of 2000.  That's 1.4% annualized return, which back then was probably doable in the saving account.  The Obama recovery in the last couple of years of that 15.5 year period made a huge difference.

That doesn't include dividends.  :showoff:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 27, 2021, 08:26:42 PM
Also, consider the artificiality of that situation.  Who, besides the odd lottery winner, sits on a big chunk of change and invests it all at one go?  The plain vanilla investor puts some away each year.  So the money he invested a year before the bubble peak makes somewhat better than that 1.4, the money two years before better still, and so on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on February 28, 2021, 05:33:06 AM
I tried to argue this earlier. Say that someone invests 100€ in index funds each month from the age of 20 to the age of 60. That's 40 years and I believe that even a Japanese saver that started in 1981 will have made a profit on that strategy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 28, 2021, 05:52:10 AM
Quote from: Threviel on February 28, 2021, 05:33:06 AM
I tried to argue this earlier. Say that someone invests 100€ in index funds each month from the age of 20 to the age of 60. That's 40 years and I believe that even a Japanese saver that started in 1981 will have made a profit on that strategy.
But a Japanese saver who started in the late 80s?
That's where a lot of signs in western economies are pointing towards us being.

I've a friend who is ahead of me in this market business. I remember him being aghast when I mentioned how much deposit I put down on my house. I should have invested it in stocks and paid the minimum deposit instead he said.
But... Just as diversifying in the market is smart so too is diversifying what you do with your money. I think its more likely than not that things will remain OK for some time to come and we arent looking at another big crash for a while... But theres still way too big a chance of that happening to gamble against it with everything.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on February 28, 2021, 06:54:23 AM
Someone that started later will presumably be better off since that someone will lose less in the 90's crash. The first few years will be bad investments, but hot damn the 2002 ones are good. Of course, someone that started in 1952 will presumably be crossed. The tactic is of course a bit more complex, including that one should start to move away from the stock market more and more as one gets closer to time where the money is to be used. Doing it that way will make the 1952'er sing and weep with joy at all the glorious profit. And this by just looking at index, there are dividends to consider also which might even make the 1989 savings be profitable in the long run.

Leveraging the mortgage is not a bad tactic, but it presumes that one can always afford to keep up with the payments. We leverage our mortgage, but our mortgage is about 1/6th of the value of our huse so the risk is minimal. Leverage increases risk and I would not recommend it if the mortgage is too big in relation to the value of the security or if the payments is any kind of a problem.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on February 28, 2021, 01:30:25 PM
The piece about moving to other investments as you get closer to the date you are going to need some of the capital is the part that is missing from Yi's - its a sure thing reckless comment.

It is never a sure thing, but it can be a good investment strategy under certain conditions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on February 28, 2021, 01:47:49 PM
For many people the mortgage payments will be the best investments of their lives. For most of them that is because that is the only serious investment they do in their life.

Stock market is a gamble. The risk is not at the level of lotto or horse races but it is still there. As with any kind of a gamble you should only play of you can afford to lose. We invest about 5% of our income in the stock market, hoping that the returns will allow early retirement and the ability to support our kids, but also knowing that we might not even get all back.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on February 28, 2021, 03:27:20 PM
The thing with the stock market is also what your objective is. An ex of mine's parents put money away for her education in some sort of conservative market vehicle. Unfortunately, she went to university right as the market cratered and she got very little out of the money her parents had diligently been putting away for a decade+ (significantly less than the principal IIRC).

If they'd sat on the investment for another five or ten years or whatever it would've turned around and they'd be ahead, most likely, but that didn't help her pay her way through school.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: grumbler on February 28, 2021, 05:29:11 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 28, 2021, 03:27:20 PM
The thing with the stock market is also what your objective is. An ex of mine's parents put money away for her education in some sort of conservative market vehicle. Unfortunately, she went to university right as the market cratered and she got very little out of the money her parents had diligently been putting away for a decade+ (significantly less than the principal IIRC).

If they'd sat on the investment for another five or ten years or whatever it would've turned around and they'd be ahead, most likely, but that didn't help her pay her way through school.

That's when you consider taking a loan rather than liquidating assets (not that it matters this far removed, but people should remember that taking loans is the other side of the money management coin).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on February 28, 2021, 11:39:26 PM
Quote from: grumbler on February 28, 2021, 05:29:11 PM
That's when you consider taking a loan rather than liquidating assets (not that it matters this far removed, but people should remember that taking loans is the other side of the money management coin).

The principle is sound, but I expect that wasn't an option. I believe it was some sort of tax sheltered "save up for the education of your children and let the market grow" it thing, so it essentially had to be spent while she was at school. I don't know for sure, though. Could've been peevishness for all I know.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: grumbler on March 01, 2021, 12:16:24 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 28, 2021, 11:39:26 PM
Quote from: grumbler on February 28, 2021, 05:29:11 PM
That's when you consider taking a loan rather than liquidating assets (not that it matters this far removed, but people should remember that taking loans is the other side of the money management coin).

The principle is sound, but I expect that wasn't an option. I believe it was some sort of tax sheltered "save up for the education of your children and let the market grow" it thing, so it essentially had to be spent while she was at school. I don't know for sure, though. Could've been peevishness for all I know.

Could have been peevishness, the policy of the plan they used, or just a lack of recognition that there were other options.  Kind of moot now, but it highlights your observation that one cannot plan on the markets to have a given value when you need them to.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 12:51:51 AM
Amsterdam passed London last year in volume of shares traded.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 01, 2021, 02:32:22 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 12:51:51 AM
Amsterdam passed London last year in volume of shares traded.

Sweet sweet freedom
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 02:52:20 AM
Of particular interest to you Tamas, in that same Economist article it mentioned there is a branch of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange operating in Amsterdam.  So curious you don't have access to US derivitives
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 01, 2021, 04:09:51 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 02:52:20 AM
Of particular interest to you Tamas, in that same Economist article it mentioned there is a branch of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange operating in Amsterdam.  So curious you don't have access to US derivitives

Yeah. They might be just hiding it from me as I don't have the moneis.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 04:24:55 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 01, 2021, 04:09:51 AM
Yeah. They might be just hiding it from me as I don't have the moneis.

I know with Etrade and the brokerages that Tonto uses option trading is an option that you have to request.  Search around the site for "request options trading."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 01, 2021, 04:34:39 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 04:24:55 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 01, 2021, 04:09:51 AM
Yeah. They might be just hiding it from me as I don't have the moneis.

I know with Etrade and the brokerages that Tonto uses option trading is an option that you have to request.  Search around the site for "request options trading."

Yeah done that already. Not eager to lose all my money though so it's no biggie.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 01, 2021, 04:49:21 AM
The way C. Schwab does their approval is in "levels" that appear to correspond with risk.

I just got Level 0, which allows covered calls and some other what-must-be low-risk options.  Helps keep the temptation away.

I think the riskiest C-call I did last week was betting TSLA wouldn't spike back up over 700 in exchange for a $1500 premium.  It did spike above 700, but closed below that by the time the option expired.  So I appear to have won that bet.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 05:01:05 AM
What happened to that speech about boo hoo hoo, what if I sell the call and then the stock tanks and I can't unloard it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 01, 2021, 05:02:34 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 05:01:05 AM
What happened to that speech about boo hoo hoo, what if I sell the call and then the stock tanks and I can't unloard it?

There was no such speech, and I bought the call on a Wednesday with it expiring on Friday. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 01, 2021, 05:04:58 AM
I would like to highlight to everyone reading that despite Yi's carefree attitude there are significant risks when playing with options.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 05:06:47 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 01, 2021, 05:02:34 AM
There was no such speech, and I bought the call on a Wednesday with it expiring on Friday.

Wait, you bought the call or sold it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 05:07:44 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 01, 2021, 05:04:58 AM
I would like to highlight to everyone reading that despite Yi's carefree attitude there are significant risks when playing with options.

We've been over this.  There are huge risks buying options.  Selling them your risks are hypothetical.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 01, 2021, 05:08:23 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 05:06:47 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 01, 2021, 05:02:34 AM
There was no such speech, and I bought the call on a Wednesday with it expiring on Friday.

Wait, you bought the call or sold it?

Sold.  :sleep:

This is why I agree with Tamas.  There are indeed risks, and I will likely only ever do covered calls, and then only in cases where I am prepared to sell the stock anyway.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 05:11:05 AM
Selling cash covered puts is nice too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 01, 2021, 05:46:45 AM
It is probably pompous, but there is a part of my psyche that thinks anything approaching short-selling is somewhat unethical.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 11:16:14 AM
Quote from: grumbler on February 28, 2021, 05:29:11 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 28, 2021, 03:27:20 PM
The thing with the stock market is also what your objective is. An ex of mine's parents put money away for her education in some sort of conservative market vehicle. Unfortunately, she went to university right as the market cratered and she got very little out of the money her parents had diligently been putting away for a decade+ (significantly less than the principal IIRC).

If they'd sat on the investment for another five or ten years or whatever it would've turned around and they'd be ahead, most likely, but that didn't help her pay her way through school.

That's when you consider taking a loan rather than liquidating assets (not that it matters this far removed, but people should remember that taking loans is the other side of the money management coin).

They likely invested in a Register Education Savings Plan.  In concept it is a great idea because the government matches contributions up to a certain maximum.

The down side is you need to use the accumulated money for the child's post secondary education which obviously occurs during a set and small period of time.  People who thought equities were a sure bet could get badly burned.  The better approach is to take advantage of the governments subsidy and invest in a way that preserves the principle amount without too much concern for making bets on the upside.

Any funds which are unused are fully taxable in the parent's hands.  So it would not make much sense to hold on to the capital rather than spending it on its intended purpose.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 01, 2021, 11:59:33 AM
With the caveat that I've not looked into that program at all, why would it not make sense to invest in equities, collect the subsidy, then, if the market is down, pay the taxes on the amount when the time comes? You've then gotten the matching on an otherwise-taxable account, which is...still pretty nice. Am I missing a detail here?

Obviously, if you can't afford to pay the taxes, that nixes the idea, but that's how I'd plan on doing things if I had access to it.  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 01, 2021, 12:12:24 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 01, 2021, 11:59:33 AM
With the caveat that I've not looked into that program at all, why would it not make sense to invest in equities, collect the subsidy, then, if the market is down, pay the taxes on the amount when the time comes? You've then gotten the matching on an otherwise-taxable account, which is...still pretty nice. Am I missing a detail here?

Obviously, if you can't afford to pay the taxes, that nixes the idea, but that's how I'd plan on doing things if I had access to it.  :hmm:

The tax is paid on the whole amount of the principle, not just the gains, if it is not used for its purpose.  And also in the hands of the parent with the highest taxable income.

Now for a low income earner the calculation might be different, especially if they are not paying tax anyway.  But for most, it would not make much sense. 

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 04:21:01 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 01, 2021, 05:46:45 AM
It is probably pompous, but there is a part of my psyche that thinks anything approaching short-selling is somewhat unethical.  :sleep:

When you sell a put your counterparty is the one going short.  They are betting on a fall in price.  You are technically long, since you are contractually bound to buy the stock.

Although, your view of short selling is pretty goofy too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 01, 2021, 05:28:29 PM
"Unethical" might be the wrong word.  I suppose I see the market as a place one should (well, make money, of course) be going to invest in companies in order to support growth/progress. 

Just going around making bets on who is going to fail, to me, feels like little more than being vulture-like.

But really, I know it's mostly a grand game...it still feels a little dirty.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 01, 2021, 05:39:22 PM
I understand the sentiment, because I see the exact same thing at the craps table.  A lot of players get pissed when someone bets the don't pass line, especially if they're throwing.  As if that don't bet somehow affected their roll.  Jinxed them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 02, 2021, 10:08:06 AM
Sold 3 SQ 3/26 calls @292.50 for $845

Sold 7 NNDM 3/19 calls @20 for $81.97

I wanted to sell calls against my Viacom B and my Uber, but the bid/offer is humongous so I took that as a sign to stay away.

I talked to a bar buddy who sells a lot of options, and he says he aims for 1% return a month.  He has a Motley Fool subscription, so I imagine that's where he picked it up.

Maybe I'll see what's going on with CGC and Skechers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 02, 2021, 10:16:27 AM
Nope, those two are no good either.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 03, 2021, 02:17:23 PM
It's really annoying how hard it is made to be to anything other than basic stock buying as an europoor.

Even if I could convince myself not to gamble stupidly with my mini CFD account, I'd still like to keep it around for some shorting - I could potentially short-sell some European stocks on my regular brokerage account, but first of all who the hell wants to bother with that, and secondly, I won't do margin transactions on my account out of general principle and self-aware gambler survival instinct.

But even the CFD providers are giving you ridiculous commissions. There were no commissions just a tiny spread with the Italians I used earlier but the GME fiasco made me leave them. So I went to markets.com pretty much the only one I have found without commissions. Until now. They have introduced them for "equities" (as if this is anything else than a bet with them) and I am not even sure of the percentage (according to their support they have introduced without first updating the online documents or even letting people know) but the minimum amount is like £14. Which is just ridiculous at the play-money amounts I intend to play around with. I mean, my actual bloody stock purchases where I actually purchase something have like £0.5 commission.

So now I can try and find another provider again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 04, 2021, 11:26:06 AM
Awful lot of articles speaking of a stock market crash lately...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 04, 2021, 11:30:06 AM
So you're selling everything then?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 04, 2021, 12:41:24 PM
Still seems to be largely the meme-ishly overvalued stocks suffering. Luckily I got out of this nano-tech nonsense NNDM for example. Bought at $15, gave up just below $12. Now it's below $8.

My Intel, Ford, even Palantir (a very meme-ish stock) are holding ground fairly decently. Even Canopy is hovering bit above my breakeven point. None of these are flying but also not dying with the rest.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 04, 2021, 12:54:40 PM
Just noticed tesla
Wow. It popped?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 04, 2021, 12:59:09 PM
I have lost significant ground with my play money account.  A good reminder to stick with my day job  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 05, 2021, 02:26:10 AM
Aaannnnd on top of the downturn and already existing problems with currency conversion trading 212 are introducing fees for foreign currency transactions.
I shall be putting no more money into there, just looking to simplify and close off much of what is already in when the time is right and find a different broker.
Really jealous of the choice Americans seem to have.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 05, 2021, 03:39:48 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 02:26:10 AM
Aaannnnd on top of the downturn and already existing problems with currency conversion trading 212 are introducing fees for foreign currency transactions.
I shall be putting no more money into there, just looking to simplify and close off much of what is already in when the time is right and find a different broker.
Really jealous of the choice Americans seem to have.

I thought Trading 212 was a CFD broker.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 05, 2021, 04:13:27 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 05, 2021, 03:39:48 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 02:26:10 AM
Aaannnnd on top of the downturn and already existing problems with currency conversion trading 212 are introducing fees for foreign currency transactions.
I shall be putting no more money into there, just looking to simplify and close off much of what is already in when the time is right and find a different broker.
Really jealous of the choice Americans seem to have.

I thought Trading 212 was a CFD broker.
They do that too, heavily try to push new sign ups and existing users on the isa/standard investing towards it. Figuring out what that was all about and that it should be avoided at all costs delayed my sign up quite a bit I remember.
The rumours for why they're making their standard offering worse (they've already took away limit buys/sells for anything under £100) is that the CFD business where they make most of their money is suffering as people become more savvy as to what it is.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 05, 2021, 04:15:44 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 04:13:27 AM
Quote from: Tamas on March 05, 2021, 03:39:48 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 02:26:10 AM
Aaannnnd on top of the downturn and already existing problems with currency conversion trading 212 are introducing fees for foreign currency transactions.
I shall be putting no more money into there, just looking to simplify and close off much of what is already in when the time is right and find a different broker.
Really jealous of the choice Americans seem to have.

I thought Trading 212 was a CFD broker.
They do that too, heavily try to push new sign ups and existing users on the isa/standard investing towards it. Figuring out what that was all about and that it should be avoided at all costs delayed by sign up quite a bit I remember.
The rumours for why they're making their standard offering worse (they've already took away limit buys/sells for anything under £100) is that the CFD business where they make most of their money is suffering as people become more savvy as to what it is.

These F-ers who surprise-introduced punitive CFD commissions (what a laughable concept) have only done so for their stock stuff. The support lady pointed me toward their other products with no commission. Of course, forex and commodities, and indicies betting, thank you very much. Short-term betting on stocks is hard science compared to the reckless crap those are.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 06:18:40 PM
My 2021 gains got wiped out, which is not so bad considering.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:28:52 PM
I'm fairly optimistic about this year in general, but don't expect the first two quarters to be pretty.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 05, 2021, 06:36:05 PM
Thinking the correction is over?
Looking at the charts for recent days things did seem to recover slightly from halfway through today.... Though yesterday also had similar albeit less pronounced signs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:37:23 PM
I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 05, 2021, 06:39:15 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:37:23 PM
I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.

It is too late Yi has turned them into gamblers.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 06:43:06 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 06:36:05 PM
Thinking the correction is over?
Looking at the charts for recent days things did seem to recover slightly from halfway through today.... Though yesterday also had similar albeit less pronounced signs.

I've already bought the dip, but I think we have a ways to go yet.  This selloff is driven by rising Treasury yields, if interest rates continue to climb I think we will see more downside.

I also have the feeling this correction doesn't account for the pullback we were due for just being overvalued.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 05, 2021, 07:26:52 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:37:23 PM
I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.
It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 05, 2021, 07:33:16 PM
What did I tell you Habs  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 07:26:52 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:37:23 PM
I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.
It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 05, 2021, 07:36:49 PM
Understanding short term movements is an illusion. Sure, your guess can be educated and sometimes there are obvious plays but it's still gambling.

Espexially in the sense that all the bad instincts that accompany gambling can overtake you. Be careful.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 07:36:59 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 05, 2021, 07:33:16 PM
What did I tell you Habs  :D

I'm just gonna go lie down, JFC.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 05, 2021, 07:38:00 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 07:26:52 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:37:23 PM
I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.
It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.

Exactly as fun and harmless as trying to catch a falling knife.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 07:38:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 07:26:52 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:37:23 PM
I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.
It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.

If there's a correct approach to watching daily movements, I can't disagree with this. On the other hand, I don't think people should generally be sitting on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy those dips, either. That is a form of timing, though a far less likely to backfire kind.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 05, 2021, 07:43:37 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 07:38:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 07:26:52 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:37:23 PM
I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.
It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.

If there's a correct approach to watching daily movements, I can't disagree with this. On the other hand, I don't think people should generally be sitting on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy those dips, either. That is a form of timing, though a far less likely to backfire kind.

While, as someone who sat with a bunch of cash engaged in the "fun" of predicting when I should buy, it was hardly harmless.  I lost a lot of money in the sense that I gave up a lot of gains I would otherwise have had.  Like I said in my other posts, I am just lucky I had a finance guy who refused to allow me to sell what I did have invested (thank goodness).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 07:43:51 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 05, 2021, 07:38:00 PM
Exactly as fun and harmless as trying to catch a falling knife.

For this to be true, you would have to be predicting the extinction of the financial system, and have already liquidated your holdings and turned them into ammo and survival rations.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 05, 2021, 07:44:36 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 07:43:51 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 05, 2021, 07:38:00 PM
Exactly as fun and harmless as trying to catch a falling knife.

For this to be true, you would have to be predicting the extinction of the financial system, and have already liquidated your holdings and turned them into ammo and survival rations.

Or simply not take into consideration the money you would have made if you had not acted so stupidly.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 07:46:30 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 07:38:27 PM
If there's a correct approach to watching daily movements, I can't disagree with this. On the other hand, I don't think people should generally be sitting on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy those dips, either. That is a form of timing, though a far less likely to backfire kind.

It's pretty much the modern Buffet approach.

I think it makes a difference whether your stocks are generating a revenue stream that you can use to buy a dip (like mine does because of the commissions from selling options) or whether you are taking money from your regular income to sit passively in a brokerage account earning 5 basis points.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 05, 2021, 07:52:51 PM
I think you guys are mixing up different time frames in this discussion.

If you want to hold for years then trying and failing to buy the dip should largely be harmless but also feels like a largely pointless excersize.

However if you are aiming for short term shuffling like Tyr was implying you can absolutely make big loser moves by buying the dip.what is a dip in a 2 years scale can be a pretty rough fall  if you want to / have to sell a few weeks or a month from its start.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 08:00:55 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 05, 2021, 07:43:37 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 07:38:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 05, 2021, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 07:26:52 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:37:23 PM
I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.
It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.

I think it's a mistake to try and time the market.  On the other hand I do think it is worthwhile buying dips, and it is fun and harmless to try and figure out the bottom of the dip.

If there's a correct approach to watching daily movements, I can't disagree with this. On the other hand, I don't think people should generally be sitting on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy those dips, either. That is a form of timing, though a far less likely to backfire kind.

While, as someone who sat with a bunch of cash engaged in the "fun" of predicting when I should buy, it was hardly harmless.  I lost a lot of money in the sense that I gave up a lot of gains I would otherwise have had.  Like I said in my other posts, I am just lucky I had a finance guy who refused to allow me to sell what I did have invested (thank goodness).

Yeah, and that's my point about holding cash waiting for those moments. Eventually, one of those moments is likely to come, but in the interim you've lost how much in dividends and possible gains? And with the potential that the dip is not even low enough to take you back to the starting point?

It's a mug's game.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 05, 2021, 08:02:29 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 05, 2021, 07:26:52 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on March 05, 2021, 06:37:23 PM
I don't really pay attention to daily movements and nor should you.
It doesn't make sense to sit on stock in profit but losing value when you can sell now and rebuy at a lower price. Even those where there's reason to be optimistic.
It's not something I feel I have to do of course. But if I do have time it earns a few quid: if I was playing with big money I could well imagine some people support themselves from understanding the ebbs and flows of a few stocks.
If stocks were guaranteed to act like a sine wave, then sure.  If you know that the price of the stock is going to come back to $25 infinite number of times, why not sell it when it's at $30?  I suspect that the flaw with your approach is that stocks are not in fact guaranteed to fluctuate perpetually.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 06, 2021, 05:02:01 AM
Timing things for the absolute top and bottom is a virtual impossibility.
Selling near where you think is a top and then buying when you think it's near a bottom... Often less difficult.

And its all gambling. That's why you won't find me putting big money into this stuff :p
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 06, 2021, 09:26:07 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 06, 2021, 05:02:01 AM
Timing things for the absolute top and bottom is a virtual impossibility.
Selling near where you think is a top and then buying when you think it's near a bottom... Often less difficult.

And its all gambling. That's why you won't find me putting big money into this stuff :p

The way you are doing it, yes it is gambling.  But it seems you have not understood Habs' posts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 06, 2021, 09:35:31 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 06, 2021, 05:02:01 AM
Selling near where you think is a top and then buying when you think it's near a bottom... Often less difficult.
It's not just less difficult, it's trivially easy.  The difficult part is correlating what you think with the actual movement of the price.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 06, 2021, 11:07:49 AM
QuoteIf you know that the price of the stock is going to come back to $25 infinite number of times, why not sell it when it's at $30?  I suspect that the flaw with your approach is that stocks are not in fact guaranteed to fluctuate perpetually.
Woops, missed the second part. Think I was in a rush.
In this case you would sell at $30... but then you'd see it fall back to $25. And if whatever you based your decisions on the first time around still holds up you buy it again- maybe to sell again at $30, hopefully for it to break that wall this time and go higher.

QuoteIt's not just less difficult, it's trivially easy.  The difficult part is correlating what you think with the actual movement of the price.
Come on. You know what I meant. Whether you're just rolling a dice or doing a detailed analysis based on an in-depth understanding of the market and/or the company, or anything in between, its what you think is going to happen with a stock.

I'm far from an expert in this stuff. But even I have found I've been able to correctly guess a few movements based on publicly available data. It's sometimes pretty easy to see clustering of sellers at big landmark amounts or analyst projection targets.
If you've got a stock running up towards targets at $30 and you see there's a huge chunk of its volume listed for sale at $20 then it can be a smart move to get out before it hits that... and then if it all checks out and you're still confident in it get back in again at $15 for another shot at $30.

Is there some other reason buy low, sell high, shouldn't apply to the same stock more than once?


Quote from: crazy canuck on March 06, 2021, 09:26:07 AM

The way you are doing it, yes it is gambling.  But it seems you have not understood Habs' posts.
Well its going back to the point of a few pages ago, but it's all gambling. Even the more significant sums I'm putting into ETFs. The odds are very good that they will come out in my favour if I decide to sell some years down the line but they're still a gamble.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 06, 2021, 01:09:15 PM
Hmmm.....it may be a gamble but if so it is in a casino where the game is rigged in favour of the punter.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 01:10:48 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 06, 2021, 01:09:15 PM
Hmmm.....it may be a gamble but if so it is in a casino where the game is rigged in favour of the punter.

Yup.  The House can have a bad night or two but will always win in the end.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on March 06, 2021, 01:32:26 PM
Tyr reminds me of a story I read from a big Swedish forum. Some dude found out that you can still play on football games in the final minutes. If Barcelona leads by 2-0 in the 89th minute you could still put down money on a Barcelona win. Sure, the winnings were small, but it was trivially easy to see that Barcelona was going to win.

So this dude bet his entire months wage, and won something like 20€. And he continued to do that for months on sure games, because it was trivially easy to spot where sure money was going to come.

Easy peasy money, until one night when Barcelona did not win that game. Sometimes unpredictable shit happens, and by playing the market you are going to get burned when that happens. If it was that easy to predict the market there would be a gazillion funds doing just that, and gambling companies would not allow bets in the 90th minute.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 06, 2021, 01:35:57 PM
Collecting nickels in front of a steamroller seems easy until you're under the steamroller.  Rarely do these nickels amount to enough to pay for the medical bills afterwards, particularly because the fees can really eat you up on such bets.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 01:52:10 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 06, 2021, 01:35:57 PM
Collecting nickels in front of a steamroller seems easy until you're under the steamroller.  Rarely do these nickels amount to enough to pay for the medical bills afterwards, particularly because the fees can really eat you up on such bets.

If, as I assume, you're referring to Squeeze's market timing, what constitutes the steamroller?

Long Term Capital did in fact go bust doing exactly what you described.  In fact I think one of the founders coined the term nickels in front of steamrollers.  But their demise was due to selling long dated way out of the money put options on the S&P500.  So when one of the periodic market crashes happened they owed their counterparties a ton of money.  There is nothing in market timing that is equivalent to this.  Squeeze could miss out on some theoretical upside if he sells before the peak or if he buys back before the trough.  Neither of these is the same as actually losing cash money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 06, 2021, 01:56:08 PM
The thing is though people have made decent money off exploiting the market. Rather than collecting nickles placed in front of a steam roller as the companies want they've figured out where the nickles are kept.
It's in large part due to this that various brokers are starting to introduce extra fees and restrictions.

Quote from: Threviel on March 06, 2021, 01:32:26 PM
Tyr reminds me of a story I read from a big Swedish forum. Some dude found out that you can still play on football games in the final minutes. If Barcelona leads by 2-0 in the 89th minute you could still put down money on a Barcelona win. Sure, the winnings were small, but it was trivially easy to see that Barcelona was going to win.

So this dude bet his entire months wage, and won something like 20€. And he continued to do that for months on sure games, because it was trivially easy to spot where sure money was going to come.

Easy peasy money, until one night when Barcelona did not win that game. Sometimes unpredictable shit happens, and by playing the market you are going to get burned when that happens. If it was that easy to predict the market there would be a gazillion funds doing just that, and gambling companies would not allow bets in the 90th minute.
The problem here is the guy was making 20 euros off a 2000 euro gamble.
Not making 5 dollars off 15 dollars. Quite a different thing.
There are plenty of examples out there of people getting involved in this stuff at the worst time and doing it stupidly. I've read of a fair few who bought into gamestop at the top or lost all their savings on bitcoin.
Never gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on March 06, 2021, 03:44:45 PM
I was going for the no sure thing angle rather than the lose everything angle.

Sorry, nothing personal, but if the market is so easy that Tyr, or I for that matter, could predict it then no-one would think Berkshire Hathaway was anything special, since millions of stock brokers would outperform it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 06, 2021, 05:15:47 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 01:52:10 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 06, 2021, 01:35:57 PM
Collecting nickels in front of a steamroller seems easy until you're under the steamroller.  Rarely do these nickels amount to enough to pay for the medical bills afterwards, particularly because the fees can really eat you up on such bets.

If, as I assume, you're referring to Squeeze's market timing, what constitutes the steamroller?

Long Term Capital did in fact go bust doing exactly what you described.  In fact I think one of the founders coined the term nickels in front of steamrollers.  But their demise was due to selling long dated way out of the money put options on the S&P500.  So when one of the periodic market crashes happened they owed their counterparties a ton of money.  There is nothing in market timing that is equivalent to this.  Squeeze could miss out on some theoretical upside if he sells before the peak or if he buys back before the trough.  Neither of these is the same as actually losing cash money.
I'm referring to the dude on the Swedish forum.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 05:33:22 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 06, 2021, 05:15:47 PM
I'm referring to the dude on the Swedish forum.

gotcha

Though Threviel, you never did say whether he came out ahead or behind.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 05:43:11 PM
A question for all the "investing is gambling" types: is the house gambling in a casino?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 06, 2021, 05:57:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 05:43:11 PM
A question for all the "investing is gambling" types: is the house gambling in a casino?

What are we comparing to being the house in a casino? Buy and hold or selling covered call options or daytrading or what?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 06, 2021, 06:00:49 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 05:43:11 PM
A question for all the "investing is gambling" types: is the house gambling in a casino?
It's more like a bookies than a casino.
With aspects of competitive casino games.
The ones looking to directly profit from your losses are not the ones you are directly betting on, rather the intermediary and other players elsewhere (of whom their links to the platforms is a controversial topic at the moment)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 06, 2021, 06:04:54 PM
I don't know any type of gambling that maps to the results that US stock market indexing and buy-and-hold strategies have provided, where short-term losses are mitigated by long-term returns.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 06, 2021, 06:23:48 PM
I am guessing Tyr's point is that you can't be certain that your stock purchase will be profitable.

When you purchase a bond you get a contract you are getting your money back with interest after a time period. You get no such thing with a stock. In that sense he is right. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 06, 2021, 06:32:38 PM
Bonds may have that contract, but there is certainly no certainty you'll get your money back with them.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 07:56:31 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 06, 2021, 05:57:07 PM
What are we comparing to being the house in a casino? Buy and hold or selling covered call options or daytrading or what?

Whatever the people who said "investing is gambling" meant.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on March 07, 2021, 12:32:56 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 05:33:22 PM
Though Threviel, you never did say whether he came out ahead or behind.

Well, I don't know if he continued after losing his pay. He lived, as far as I can remember from hand to mouth and this was not an investment strategy, just some idiot gambling.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 07, 2021, 01:17:38 AM
Quote from: Threviel on March 07, 2021, 12:32:56 AM
Well, I don't know if he continued after losing his pay. He lived, as far as I can remember from hand to mouth and this was not an investment strategy, just some idiot gambling.

You said he won piddly stakes a lot of times before finally losing.  I was wondering if all those piddly stakes were greater or lesser than the big loss.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on March 07, 2021, 09:48:30 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 07, 2021, 01:17:38 AM
You said he won piddly stakes a lot of times before finally losing.  I was wondering if all those piddly stakes were greater or lesser than the big loss.

I've been trying to find it again, but this was a decade or two ago and I have not been able to. My guess is that he did not since it would presumably take years of betting the monthly wage.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: grumbler on March 07, 2021, 01:00:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 07:56:31 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 06, 2021, 05:57:07 PM
What are we comparing to being the house in a casino? Buy and hold or selling covered call options or daytrading or what?

Whatever the people who said "investing is gambling" meant.

Buying a house is gambling, as is buying an apple.  Lots of decisions are gambles.  The questions are always how well you can estimate the risks, what your stake is, and what the downside of losing the gamble is.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 07, 2021, 01:48:40 PM
Quote from: grumbler on March 07, 2021, 01:00:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 06, 2021, 07:56:31 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 06, 2021, 05:57:07 PM
What are we comparing to being the house in a casino? Buy and hold or selling covered call options or daytrading or what?

Whatever the people who said "investing is gambling" meant.

Buying a house is gambling, as is buying an apple.  Lots of decisions are gambles.  The questions are always how well you can estimate the risks, what your stake is, and what the downside of losing the gamble is.
In this context, I think gambling has a very specific definition:  it's a bet with negative expectation that you hope to get lucky on.  In this context, a bet with positive expectation that you can get unlucky on is not gambling.  That said, there is a gray area where you can make a bet with positive expectation, but nevertheless the risk of ruin is high enough that it may be an unwise bet from a utility curve perspective.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on March 08, 2021, 01:25:29 PM
Looks like Gamestop is up to its old tricks - the stock is up to $188 per share, triple what it was just a couple of weeks ago.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on March 09, 2021, 11:10:15 AM
Quote from: Barrister on March 08, 2021, 01:25:29 PM
Looks like Gamestop is up to its old tricks - the stock is up to $188 per share, triple what it was just a couple of weeks ago.

$230 at the moment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 09, 2021, 11:19:39 AM
Quote from: Barrister on March 09, 2021, 11:10:15 AM
Quote from: Barrister on March 08, 2021, 01:25:29 PM
Looks like Gamestop is up to its old tricks - the stock is up to $188 per share, triple what it was just a couple of weeks ago.

$230 at the moment.

All the silly "growth" stocks like Tesla are rallying today. I suspect a big bulltrap for the enthusiastic retail buyers fomo-ing in when stimulus is passed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 09, 2021, 11:32:19 AM
I'm really surprised that GME is up so much. Expected it was just a temporary spike up into the 100s but there it goes.
Regretting not buying when I noticed it starting to go at 70 again. Hey ho.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 09, 2021, 12:49:45 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 09, 2021, 11:32:19 AM
I'm really surprised that GME is up so much. Expected it was just a temporary spike up into the 100s but there it goes.
Regretting not buying when I noticed it starting to go at 70 again. Hey ho.

There were far more reasons to think it was on its way to 12.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2021, 01:02:57 PM
Tesla and Square have been jumping up and down like a yoyo today.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on March 09, 2021, 01:09:37 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 09, 2021, 12:49:45 PM
Quote from: Tyr on March 09, 2021, 11:32:19 AM
I'm really surprised that GME is up so much. Expected it was just a temporary spike up into the 100s but there it goes.
Regretting not buying when I noticed it starting to go at 70 again. Hey ho.

There were far more reasons to think it was on its way to 12.

Yeah.  This stock price is completely divorced from the company's fundamentals.  Investing in it now is more akin to gambling than any kind of investment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 09, 2021, 01:12:31 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2021, 01:02:57 PM
Tesla and Square have been jumping up and down like a yoyo today.

Tesla has been almost non-stop upward. I'll short it a day or so after the stimulus bill is passed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2021, 01:19:18 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 09, 2021, 01:12:31 PM
Tesla has been almost non-stop upward. I'll short it a day or so after the stimulus bill is passed.

Hmm.  Maybe Etrade's reporting is fucked up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 09, 2021, 01:25:51 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2021, 01:19:18 PM
Quote from: Tamas on March 09, 2021, 01:12:31 PM
Tesla has been almost non-stop upward. I'll short it a day or so after the stimulus bill is passed.

Hmm.  Maybe Etrade's reporting is fucked up.

Use Tradingview, especially if you don't mind having just up to 3 indicators in their free tier.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2021, 01:47:45 PM
I used google.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 15, 2021, 02:39:59 PM
Sold 2 Viacom 4/16 calls @125.  Strangely 125 is high as it goes.  Seems Viacom is under a short squeeze, ,price has really run up.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2021, 04:55:39 PM
Another good thing about covered calls is you can relax when the stock is getting clobbered.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 30, 2021, 10:43:54 AM
Some delicate green shoots appearing after a brutal couple of weeks.

Anyone following the Archegos story?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 31, 2021, 01:47:34 PM
Sold 3 SQ $275 calls and 1 TSLA $820 call.  Both April 30.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 31, 2021, 05:10:38 PM
My play money investments are down 42%.

Please, if I ever make noises about not needing my financial advisor, remind me about this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 31, 2021, 08:22:23 PM
Play money is play money, but it's also a good reminder of what not to do with your retirement money.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 01, 2021, 02:31:33 AM
I've gone really long and have put most of the loot into passive index-trackers; I intend to leave these investments to my kids. The rest I have turned into cash which I will spend travelling once the plague is history.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 01, 2021, 04:55:50 AM
So we're all forseeing a crash? :unsure:

Quote from: crazy canuck on March 31, 2021, 05:10:38 PM
My play money investments are down 42%.

Please, if I ever make noises about not needing my financial advisor, remind me about this.
How have you managed that? Anything in particular collapsed?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 01, 2021, 05:30:17 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 01, 2021, 04:55:50 AM
So we're all forseeing a crash? :unsure:


In silly meme stocks? Possibly. In companies which are not grossly overvalued? Nah.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 01, 2021, 10:21:15 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 01, 2021, 04:55:50 AM
So we're all forseeing a crash? :unsure:

Quote from: crazy canuck on March 31, 2021, 05:10:38 PM
My play money investments are down 42%.

Please, if I ever make noises about not needing my financial advisor, remind me about this.
How have you managed that? Anything in particular collapsed?

Mainly the psilocybin medical stocks I bought basically at the top, one day they will hopefully be worth something.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 10:33:53 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 01, 2021, 04:55:50 AM
So we're all forseeing a crash? :unsure:

I think the worst is over and we're now going to ramp into the reopening rally.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 01, 2021, 10:39:28 AM
Who's "we"?

I don't foresee a crash any time soon and expect steady growth over the next few years.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 01, 2021, 10:52:51 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 10:33:53 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 01, 2021, 04:55:50 AM
So we're all forseeing a crash? :unsure:

I think the worst is over and we're now going to ramp into the reopening rally.
I'm not sure that a rally is guaranteed after Covid reopening.  If Covid is bad for stocks and lack of Covid is good for stocks, then why did stocks rally during Covid even despite the initial dip?  On the other hand, if Covid is good for stocks and lack of Covid is good for stocks, then then just doesn't make sense.

My theory is that stocks went way up during Covid because that's how inflation manifested itself.  The people who lost income were typically the people who never had funds to invest in the first place, while the people who worked from home couldn't dine out from home or take vacations from home, so they over-invested in aggregate even more than has been the recent norm.  I suspect that's we'll see a reverse after Covid, and that we may see a real old-fashioned inflation for the first time in a long time as too much money chases too few goods and services rather than too few Bitcoins.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 12:27:16 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 01, 2021, 10:52:51 AM
I'm not sure that a rally is guaranteed after Covid reopening.  If Covid is bad for stocks and lack of Covid is good for stocks, then why did stocks rally during Covid even despite the initial dip?  On the other hand, if Covid is good for stocks and lack of Covid is good for stocks, then then just doesn't make sense.

My theory is that stocks went way up during Covid because that's how inflation manifested itself.  The people who lost income were typically the people who never had funds to invest in the first place, while the people who worked from home couldn't dine out from home or take vacations from home, so they over-invested in aggregate even more than has been the recent norm.  I suspect that's we'll see a reverse after Covid, and that we may see a real old-fashioned inflation for the first time in a long time as too much money chases too few goods and services rather than too few Bitcoins.

Not all stocks rallied in 2020.  Cruise lines, airlines, theater chains etc. got crushed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 01, 2021, 12:34:30 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 01, 2021, 10:52:51 AM
I'm not sure that a rally is guaranteed after Covid reopening.  If Covid is bad for stocks and lack of Covid is good for stocks, then why did stocks rally during Covid even despite the initial dip?  On the other hand, if Covid is good for stocks and lack of Covid is good for stocks, then then just doesn't make sense.

My theory is that stocks went way up during Covid because that's how inflation manifested itself.  The people who lost income were typically the people who never had funds to invest in the first place, while the people who worked from home couldn't dine out from home or take vacations from home, so they over-invested in aggregate even more than has been the recent norm.  I suspect that's we'll see a reverse after Covid, and that we may see a real old-fashioned inflation for the first time in a long time as too much money chases too few goods and services rather than too few Bitcoins.

That certainly seems plausible.  We've already seen big run-ups in things like vacation homes.

There was also a lot of quantitative easing helping to support stock prices, and that will go away (if it hasn't already).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 01, 2021, 01:23:03 PM
You guys talk about "stocks" - the overpriced tech people flocked into are suffering (though not all) and the ones people fled or just didn't over-bubble are starting to come to life, that's what happening.

I'd take profit from Tesla as I think that's well on its sub-500 way, but "boomer stocks" I would not worry about.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 01:30:02 PM
Quote from: Tamas on April 01, 2021, 01:23:03 PM
You guys talk about "stocks" - the overpriced tech people flocked into are suffering (though not all) and the ones people fled or just didn't over-bubble are starting to come to life, that's what happening.

I'd take profit from Tesla as I think that's well on its sub-500 way, but "boomer stocks" I would not worry about.

Wanna make a side bet on Tesla share price year end?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 01, 2021, 01:35:47 PM
Quote from: Tamas on April 01, 2021, 01:23:03 PM
You guys talk about "stocks" - the overpriced tech people flocked into are suffering (though not all) and the ones people fled or just didn't over-bubble are starting to come to life, that's what happening.

I'd take profit from Tesla as I think that's well on its sub-500 way, but "boomer stocks" I would not worry about.

Not that I recommend buying individual stocks in the first place, but if I did, I would agree with this analysis.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 01, 2021, 01:38:12 PM
I refuse to comment on tesla. That bubble has looked like popping for years now. Who knows when it actually will and stay down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 01, 2021, 01:44:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 01:30:02 PM
Quote from: Tamas on April 01, 2021, 01:23:03 PM
You guys talk about "stocks" - the overpriced tech people flocked into are suffering (though not all) and the ones people fled or just didn't over-bubble are starting to come to life, that's what happening.

I'd take profit from Tesla as I think that's well on its sub-500 way, but "boomer stocks" I would not worry about.

Wanna make a side bet on Tesla share price year end?

No I gamble enough on that already, thanks though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 01:48:57 PM
So here's a scenario that's come up for me. I'd like your opinion...

When I did my MBA, one of my (and the class's) favourite profs was the corporate finance prof. We did a bunch of case studies, balance sheet and financial statement analysis figuring out where companies went wrong and/ or where opportunities... that sort of stuff. Super fascinating if you're into it.

Anyways, the prof's background is pretty legit and includes stints at Salomon Bros, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs, as well as a bunch of relevant academic and industry experience. In my judgement he knows what he's doing and is trustworthy (because if I didn't think so, nothing else really matters and I wouldn't be posting about this at all).

This prof, along with a partner of his (that I don't know) managed an investment fund - a search fund - that basically looks for and finds successful owner-operated businesses where the business owner is looking to retire but where there's no clear succession plan. The fund buys those businesses (where the fundamentals indicate it), puts in new management (they have a network of people they can draw on for that), operates the business for a while, and then sells the business on for a profit. Typically a search fund invests in around 30 businesses, with the lifecycle of the fund being 5 to 10 years.

So, the prof and his partner and investors had such a fund, it performed very well, they wrapped it up, and now they're doing it again. They're in the funding stage, with a minimum of $500K. I, alas, do not have $500K lying around to put into interesting investment funds on a lark. However, some of the prof's students and former students are discussing amongst ourselves to pool our money and meet the $500K min to invest.

I am told that the historic IRR of search funds are 33.7% for North America and 28.7% Internationally which is pretty good (though of course, past history is no indication of future performance and all that).

The question, of course, is whether I should invest or not. It wouldn't be a matter of merely reallocating play-money or similar, since I don't really do that. Nor would it be some massive all-in, risk the house type commitment. Rather it would be a "yeah that's kind of inconvenient, and we'll have to give up something somewhere, but if it goes wrong we'll be fine" type of investment. Alternately, I suppose I might be able to put some of my RRSP (retirement fund) money in.

So yeah, those are the broad strokes of the scenario. Should I do it?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 01, 2021, 01:55:01 PM
Yes, assuming you've done due diligence (I assume these guys will get audited, etc?).

It sounds like a private equity company and this is a way to get in on investments other than stocks (diversification) without having to do active work.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 01:56:16 PM
1.  I would like to see his funds total return first, not the industry average.

2.  The pooling of funds to create one joint account sounds like it might create legal issues.  Wouldn't you need to create a legal entity in who's name the money is invested?  How are decisions made about the joint funds?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 02:00:20 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 01, 2021, 01:55:01 PM
Yes, assuming you've done due diligence (I assume these guys will get audited, etc?).

Auditing by KPMG, with 3rd party legal and reporting as well.

QuoteIt sounds like a private equity company and this is a way to get in on investments other than stocks (diversification) without having to do active work.

Yeah that's what I'm thinking as well. In my case, I'd be diversifying away from mediocre mutual funds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 02:03:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 01:56:16 PM
1.  I would like to see his funds total return first, not the industry average.

Agreed - based on what I understand, we'll have access to financial models and investor reports from the previous fund before we commit, so there'll be more due dilligence.

Quote2.  The pooling of funds to create one joint account sounds like it might create legal issues.  Wouldn't you need to create a legal entity in who's name the money is invested?  How are decisions made about the joint funds?

Yeah, that's part of the plan. Apparently we'll be incorporating an SPV... though I don't know what SPV stands for :blush:

But agreed, there needs to be a clear and acceptable plan for handling the pooled funds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 02:06:13 PM
Special Purpose Vehicle
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 02:07:46 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 02:06:13 PM
Special Purpose Vehicle

Thank you!

Now I can pretend I knew all along when I talk to my peeps :cheers:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 01, 2021, 02:52:31 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 01:48:57 PM
So, the prof and his partner and investors had such a fund, it performed very well, they wrapped it up, and now they're doing it again. They're in the funding stage, with a minimum of $500K. I, alas, do not have $500K lying around to put into interesting investment funds on a lark. However, some of the prof's students and former students are discussing amongst ourselves to pool our money and meet the $500K min to invest.

Okay, so the reason there is a minimum investment is because of securities law.  Ordinarily if you're selling shares you need to prepare a prospectus - a document which outlines all the positives and negatives of the investment.  You also have to provide regular updated financial information.  This is all to protect small investors like yourself.

There is an exception however.  If someone can invest a very large sum like $500k (limit in BC is $150k) they are deemed to be a 'sophisticated investor' - they presumably have enough knowledge and sophistication that they don't need all of this corporate disclosure.

So here's what really worries me - you're not allowed to pool up investments in order to get to the $150k minimum.

Okay... so just going back to review.  The sophisticated investor exception is $150k in BC.  There are other exemptions as well: if there are no more than 50 shareholders, and shares are sold only to (amongst others) close friends and business associates.

So: I would want to make sure this fellow is in compliance with securities law, because it kind of sounds like they won't be.  But maybe I'm wrong and they are going to do up a prospectus (but then why the $500k minimum)?  Or maybe it will be limited to only 50 investors (but that counts everyone participating in the pool) and they figure former MBA students count as close business associates.


The other concern is this is going to be a very illiquid investment.  Your investment is going to be locked in until the company is wound up.  If you need that money?  Too bad.  There's no secondary market to sell into.

Proceed with caution.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 03:12:57 PM
Have you already researched how easily (or at all) you can use your Royal Ruritianian Services Policy money this way?

Now I don't know anything about the Canucklehead system, but do you have something like the maximum annual IRA contribution?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 01, 2021, 03:23:28 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 03:12:57 PM
Have you already researched how easily (or at all) you can use your Royal Ruritianian Services Policy money this way?

Now I don't know anything about the Canucklehead system, but do you have something like the maximum annual IRA contribution?

I believe an RRSP (registered retirement savings plan) works much like an IRA.  Money is not taxed when placed into an RRSP, but is taxed when withdrawn.  Yes there is a yearly maximum (which carries over).  No idea if the RRSP money could be invested in Jacob's professor's SVP.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 04:18:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 03:12:57 PM
Have you already researched how easily (or at all) you can use your Royal Ruritianian Services Policy money this way?

Now I don't know anything about the Canucklehead system, but do you have something like the maximum annual IRA contribution?

There's a max contribution room, yeah, and I do have room. On the flipside, like I said, I'd be okay with cashing in some mutual funds and moving the money over into this thing.

Whether it's possible or not, I don't know, however. Maybe the fund doesn't want to deal with it (if there's something for it to deal with, I don't know), or maybe it's not eligible. That's something I'll have to figure out if I go ahead.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 04:22:09 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 01, 2021, 02:52:31 PM
...

Proceed with caution.

Thanks for the heads up on those issues. I'll make sure it's all on the up and up, but my assumption is that it's going to be. Like I said, there's a legit law firm attached, and I'm assuming they'll make sure there's no securities fraud involved.

As for it being illiquid, yeah I know. This would be a fire and forget (or fire and monitor). I would not expect to have access to those funds if I suddenly needed them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 01, 2021, 07:35:08 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 01, 2021, 02:03:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 01, 2021, 01:56:16 PM
1.  I would like to see his funds total return first, not the industry average.

Agreed - based on what I understand, we'll have access to financial models and investor reports from the previous fund before we commit, so there'll be more due dilligence.

Quote2.  The pooling of funds to create one joint account sounds like it might create legal issues.  Wouldn't you need to create a legal entity in who's name the money is invested?  How are decisions made about the joint funds?

Yeah, that's part of the plan. Apparently we'll be incorporating an SPV... though I don't know what SPV stands for :blush:

But agreed, there needs to be a clear and acceptable plan for handling the pooled funds.

Yi has misunderstood what this is.  It is not like a mutual fund.  Whatever the return to the investors in the other fund might have been has absolutely no relationship to the return of the new fund.  It could be that they got very lucky/unlucky with the businesses they choose to acquire.   Also, the fortunes of the acquired businesses can change quickly (for good or ill) once acquired.

The important thing to understand is this is a short term high risk proposition.  If the acquired business does not improve or a willing buyer who wants to purchase the business for a greater price cannot be found, you are kind of stuck.  Because these funds are set up on such short time lines (relatively speaking) what you are really trusting is the people running the show are able to negotiate a steal of a price on the buying end and negotiate a huge mark up when they sell the business.  All based on the assumption they can run the business better over the short term, making the financials look attractive and reel in the sucker.. I mean new purchaser.

I know folks who have made a LOT of money investing in these things.  I also have a friend who lost most of what he had. 

One thing to examine very carefully is what the people running this are paying themselves vs what your upside is.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 02, 2021, 10:07:02 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 01, 2021, 07:35:08 PM
The important thing to understand is this is a short term high risk proposition.  If the acquired business does not improve or a willing buyer who wants to purchase the business for a greater price cannot be found, you are kind of stuck.  Because these funds are set up on such short time lines (relatively speaking) what you are really trusting is the people running the show are able to negotiate a steal of a price on the buying end and negotiate a huge mark up when they sell the business.  All based on the assumption they can run the business better over the short term, making the financials look attractive and reel in the sucker.. I mean new purchaser.

Yeah... I think I do trust them to do that, but it's a very good point. I don't think they're looking to reel in suckers, but to genuinely improve value and performance.

QuoteI know folks who have made a LOT of money investing in these things.  I also have a friend who lost most of what he had.

Fair caution, thank you. I'm not going to invest most of what I have and can afford to lose. While I may down prioritize other spending that I'd otherwise enjoy, I'm not going to invest anything I can't manage if it all goes away.

QuoteOne thing to examine very carefully is what the people running this are paying themselves vs what your upside is.

Another good point. The stated answer is: 2% management fee, and 20% carry on capital gain - European Waterfall (investments paid back before carry kicks in), against a 5.5x of the invested capital for investors (that's the average return of Search Funds in 2019 according to Stanford, excluding the top 5). That's for the fund. I don't know anything about the SPV, as that hasn't been discussed yet.

My wife is reading up on it now too  and she's inveighled her company's investment manager into a meeting on Wednesday to give it a look with us. So it looks like we'll be getting professional investment advice on this.

For anyone interested, here's a bit on Search Funds from Stanford University:
https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/centers-initiatives/ces/research/search-funds
https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/case-studies/2020-search-fund-study-selected-observations

Looks like there'll be a zoom call Tuesday evening where the prof will field questions. I believe the person who's organizing the SPV will be there as well. I'll keep you guys posted if you're interested.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 02, 2021, 10:34:24 AM
@BB - it looks like being accredited investor is not about the amount you invest but your net worth and/ or income: https://accreditedcapitalcorp.com/cadosc45.php
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 03, 2021, 11:52:09 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 02, 2021, 10:34:24 AM
@BB - it looks like being accredited investor is not about the amount you invest but your net worth and/ or income: https://accreditedcapitalcorp.com/cadosc45.php

Its either.  You can be exempt by either investing $150k or being an accredited investor.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 16, 2021, 03:25:05 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/theres-a-single-new-jersey-deli-doing-35000-in-sales-valued-at-100-million-in-the-stock-market.html

Quote


HWIN
-0.51 (-3.78%)

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn warned of dangers for retail investors that he sees in the market, and one of his main examples was a tiny New Jersey deli with a market capitalization of more than $100 million.

The Paulsboro, New Jersey-based Your Hometown Deli is the sole location for Hometown International, which has an eye-popping market value despite totaling $35,748 in sales in the last two years combined, according to securities filings.


"Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey ... HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8. The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing," Einhorn said in a letter to clients published Thursday.

Hometown, which appears to have begun trading in 2019, according to FactSet, has shares that trade over the counter and rarely has more than a few hundred shares change hands per day. Often, there are no trades logged in an entire trading day.

Still, the company's market cap is just over $100 million, according to FactSet.

Hometown did not immediately return a request seeking comment made to the phone number listed in the company's securities filings. A manager was not available to comment at the deli's phone number.

According to the company's latest 10-K filing, the company's single location was closed from March 23 to September 8 of last year because of the coronavirus pandemic. During that time, the company's stock price rose to $9.25 per share from $3.25 per share. It last traded at just under $14 per share.


The company sold 2.5 million shares last year and has about 60 total shareholders, according a filing.



Hometown reported more than $600,000 in expenses last year, up from about $154,000 in 2019. The company also reported a net cash gain of $2.2 million from financing activities, such as selling stock, in 2020.

Einhorn's highlighting of Hometown comes as politicians, regulators and high-profile investors have publicly fretted about the boom in certain types of stocks over the past year.

As a new wave of retail investors joined the market in recent months, special purpose acquisition companies have launched at a record pace and some stocks, like GameStop and Discovery, have seen wild swings after being bid up by traders on Reddit or hedge funds.

The over-the-counter stock market, often referred to as pink sheets and penny stocks, have historically been a risky place for investors. Shares of penny stocks have also soared in recent months.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 16, 2021, 03:31:05 PM
My first thought was a boiler room.

Anyone ever gotten a boiler room call?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 16, 2021, 03:40:17 PM
I think this is what happens during the last stages of a bubble.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 16, 2021, 03:49:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 16, 2021, 03:40:17 PM
I think this is what happens during the last stages of a bubble.

Pandemic, major power relations getting worse, nationalism and authoritarianism on the rise, the characteristics of a bubble present in the stock market and real estate (and elsewhere?).

Sounds vaguely familiar. I wonder how concerned I should be....?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 16, 2021, 03:52:00 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 16, 2021, 03:49:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 16, 2021, 03:40:17 PM
I think this is what happens during the last stages of a bubble.

Pandemic, major power relations getting worse, nationalism and authoritarianism on the rise, the characteristics of a bubble present in the stock market and real estate (and elsewhere?).

Sounds vaguely familiar. I wonder how concerned I should be....?

Margret Macmillan gave a lecture on the similarities to the run up to WWI in the pre-pandemic days - I wonder what she would say now about WWII....
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 17, 2021, 03:11:54 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 16, 2021, 03:31:05 PM
My first thought was a boiler room.

Anyone ever gotten a boiler room call?
I wonder how much of this useless pump and dump these days is done via that traditional way and how much via the Internet.
Certainly seen a lot of posts trying to pump useless stuff.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2021, 09:02:13 PM
Quote from: Tyr on April 17, 2021, 03:11:54 AM
I wonder how much of this useless pump and dump these days is done via that traditional way and how much via the Internet.
Certainly seen a lot of posts trying to pump useless stuff.

How would you assign "the rip" with that system?  With a traditional boiler room each guy on a phone gets the commission for the sales he generates.

Unless maybe you just assign one salesman/con man to each given stock, and whatever sales there are for that stock all the rip goes to that one guy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 18, 2021, 03:44:29 AM
I think it's just based on owning a lot yourself before you start bigging it up then selling at the top.
No doubt much deeper stuff going on that I've not had the Interest or time to research into.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2021, 08:52:29 AM
I'm a little confused.  What do you mean by traditional pump and dump?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on April 23, 2021, 01:58:36 PM
More money has flown into the stock market in the last 5 months then in the past 12 years. that seems.. worrying

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstocks/more-money-has-flowed-into-the-stock-market-over-the-last-5-months-than-in-the-past-12-years-according-to-bank-of-america/ar-BB1fYLqH?ocid=entnewsntp
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 26, 2021, 11:03:17 AM
one of my play money picks is going to be listed on Nasdaq tomorrow and its value is going up in anticipation - so now my loses don't look as bad as before (all my other picks are still under water).  But this one will probably pull me into the black.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 26, 2021, 12:49:00 PM
:cheers:

My play money picks continue to perform well. A little too well...  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 07, 2021, 04:57:43 AM
So, like, if you know that a company you have no affiliation with whatsoever is planning some major expansions, do you buy their stocks or hold off because the money-spending will make the price fall?

Asking for a friend.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 12, 2021, 09:44:48 AM
This week has been bloody so far.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on May 12, 2021, 11:27:50 AM
The dollar seems to have collapsed in recent months too which doesn't help.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 12, 2021, 11:28:43 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 12, 2021, 09:44:48 AM
This week has been bloody so far.

Aye.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 12, 2021, 04:01:07 PM
I hope you kept your Ethereum investments Habs  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on May 12, 2021, 04:41:38 PM
I did. I'm pretty happy so far.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2021, 05:11:28 PM
Did my weekly tabulation and I gave back all my 2021 gains.  So class half full I guess.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on May 14, 2021, 05:28:38 PM
The other half are learning remotely?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2021, 05:32:26 PM
 :blurgh:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 17, 2021, 10:58:53 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on May 12, 2021, 04:41:38 PM
I did. I'm pretty happy so far.

My son just told me that his mining is making more than the last job he had. Granted it was a student summer job - but still it amazes me he found a way to combine old computer parts we had in the garage with hydro power to make a constant stream of money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on May 17, 2021, 11:23:05 AM
That's pretty awesome. I had looked into mining equipment some time ago, but it's not really feasible in my area even at current prices unless I'm stealing my neighbor's electricity. I think I calculated the payback period some months ago at ~3 years, all in a volatile environment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on May 17, 2021, 11:24:43 AM
Etherium is the one where its based on giving up spare hard drive space rather than GPU burning right? This is what you're son is doing?
Have heard of a fair few doing well off getting in on that early.
But that hd prices have blown up because of it :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on May 17, 2021, 11:28:39 AM
No, Ether is still based on GPU performance at the moment, but is shifting over in the next cough cough.

Hopefully, at that point, the GPU prices will begin to come down.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 17, 2021, 11:33:16 AM
Hopefully crypto prices will come crashing down soon.  Some of us need GPUs to do useful calculations.  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 17, 2021, 11:37:50 AM
Quote from: Tyr on May 17, 2021, 11:24:43 AM
Etherium is the one where its based on giving up spare hard drive space rather than GPU burning right? This is what you're son is doing?
Have heard of a fair few doing well off getting in on that early.
But that hd prices have blown up because of it :(

No it is definitely GPU intensive.  He started out a few years ago using old GPUs and some old computer parts we were going to send to the recyclers.  He got into it as a hobby without much of a thought of making any money at it and Ether was not worth much back then. He just wanted to see if he could make it all work.  He also wanted to teach himself how to do the necessary coding.  He sold some of his Ether to upgrade his GPUs.  If he could get his hands on the newest models (I can't remember what that is) he would be doing even better. 

@ Habs, yeah, having access to cheap hydro here definitely makes it much more viable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on May 17, 2021, 12:21:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 17, 2021, 11:33:16 AM
Hopefully crypto prices will come crashing down soon.  Some of us need GPUs to do useful calculations.  :rolleyes:

If it goes up enough, I'll buy you a GPU at market price as compensation.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 17, 2021, 12:29:18 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 17, 2021, 11:33:16 AM
Hopefully crypto prices will come crashing down soon.  Some of us need GPUs to do useful calculations.  :rolleyes:

Hopefully governments will regain (come up with?) some sanity, and outlaw cryptocurrencies outright.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 17, 2021, 12:56:07 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 17, 2021, 11:33:16 AM
Hopefully crypto prices will come crashing down soon.  Some of us need GPUs to do useful calculations.  :rolleyes:

I don't think you can blame crypto for the shortage of superconductors.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2021/05/06/the-global-chip-shortage-wont-ease-soon/?sh=2f72ba3185f4
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 17, 2021, 01:13:33 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on May 17, 2021, 12:21:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 17, 2021, 11:33:16 AM
Hopefully crypto prices will come crashing down soon.  Some of us need GPUs to do useful calculations.  :rolleyes:

If it goes up enough, I'll buy you a GPU at market price as compensation.  :P
I'd like an RTX 3090, any manufacturer will do.  Thanks!  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: viper37 on May 17, 2021, 09:04:00 PM
Quote from: Tamas on May 07, 2021, 04:57:43 AM
So, like, if you know that a company you have no affiliation with whatsoever is planning some major expansions, do you buy their stocks or hold off because the money-spending will make the price fall?

Asking for a friend.
If they plan a major expansion, the markets will react favorably before that will increase future sales&profits (well, it is expected, at the very least).  I'm a little late, but buy now if you have the tip and not many others know about it and there's no risk you are doing insider trading (as you stated you have no link with).

Stock markets often react on rumours, founded or not.  By the time the announcement arrives, there might be a significant gain on the stock, if not that many people already knew about it and bought the stock already.   If there's a trend toward asking to buy more&more of this stock, the price will increase gradually up 'til the day of the announcement.

Depending on how big the rumour/hype was vs how big the real investement is, the stock will more upward or downward accordingly.  I can't give you an estimate of how much the stock can appreciate or depreciate though, even if I knew the company.  But I can tell you in your place, I would buy it, if I had the liquidities for it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 18, 2021, 02:40:30 AM
:thumbsup:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: viper37 on May 18, 2021, 05:45:42 PM
Quote from: Tyr on May 17, 2021, 11:24:43 AM
Etherium is the one where its based on giving up spare hard drive space rather than GPU burning right? This is what you're son is doing?
Have heard of a fair few doing well off getting in on that early.
But that hd prices have blown up because of it :(
No, that's Chia.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: viper37 on May 18, 2021, 05:47:27 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 17, 2021, 11:33:16 AMSome of us need GPUs to do useful calculations.  :rolleyes:
you mean Doom Eternal?
:P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 23, 2021, 01:02:26 PM
Bitcoin has done very nicely as an asset class.  For the ostensible purpose it was intended - a currency for facilitating transactions or a substitute for government fiat currency - it has been a predictable disaster. In 2017, Bitcoin hit 300,000 daily transactions.  It's held roughly at that level through ups and down over 4 years.  300,000 daily transactions is nice if you are selling smartphones, so-so if selling cups of coffee, and laughingly inadequate for a proposed currency.  Its failure as money is directly related to its success as an asset: no one wants to use a form of money whose value fluctuates wildly day-to-day and which increases in value - i.e. causes price deflation - in double or triple digit percentages annually.

Bitcoin cannot and will never succeed as money - it was fatally flawed from inception - but that doesn't mean it can't succeed as an speculative investment asset. While it's true it lacks "intrinsic value," that is true of many successful investment assets like fine art or collectibles. Bitcoin does not have heritage connotations like some of these assets but it does have one of the attributes that make them successful - a strong and committed community of enthusiasts.  As long at that continues to hold true, the value will continue to go up as Bitcoin is designed to enhance its relative scarcity over time.  So there is some rational basis for optimism over a 5 or even 10 year time horizon.

Longer term, can Bitcoin retain enthusiasm and commitment in a similar manner as Old Dutch Masters or French Impressionists?  It's possible but I have my doubts.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 23, 2021, 01:14:31 PM
A core of enthusiasts is not enough to increase the price of a collectible.  You need an expanding pool of suckers for that to happen.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 23, 2021, 01:26:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 23, 2021, 01:14:31 PM
A core of enthusiasts is not enough to increase the price of a collectible.  You need an expanding pool of suckers for that to happen.

The art market suggests otherwise. Admittedly I don't have data to back it up - but I don't think the pool of buyers for contemporary art (e.g.) is constantly and rapidly expanding.  A single bitcoin now costs five figures so it has taken on qualities as a status symbol as well.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 23, 2021, 01:30:23 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 23, 2021, 01:26:34 PM
The art market suggests otherwise. Admittedly I don't have data to back it up - but I don't think the pool of buyers for contemporary art (e.g.) is constantly and rapidly expanding.  A single bitcoin now costs five figures so it has taken on qualities as a status symbol as well.

Disagree.  New multimillionaires and billionaires are being minted all the time.  They all want to buy status, and overpriced white squares does that to a degree.  An old master certainly does that.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on May 23, 2021, 01:46:09 PM
Art as an investment is crazy stuff.
Nestle I know has a vault full of the stuff. They put a piece or two on display around the hq but mostly just cache it in the hope it increases in value.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 23, 2021, 02:12:36 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 23, 2021, 01:30:23 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 23, 2021, 01:26:34 PM
The art market suggests otherwise. Admittedly I don't have data to back it up - but I don't think the pool of buyers for contemporary art (e.g.) is constantly and rapidly expanding.  A single bitcoin now costs five figures so it has taken on qualities as a status symbol as well.

Disagree.  New multimillionaires and billionaires are being minted all the time.  They all want to buy status, and overpriced white squares does that to a degree.  An old master certainly does that.

New billionaires are minted and old ones die off.  Most of them have no native interest in art and just follow whatever is currently "hot" in the market.  A submarket like Dutch Old Masters is of little interest to a typical billionaire - but there is a small community of enthusiasts that supports it.  That's all you need if supply is sufficiently constricted.

To be clear I am not saying bitcoin is sustainable in this way.  I am expressing a clear suspicion that it is not.  But a strong enough fad can carry for years before fading out.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 02:23:47 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 23, 2021, 01:02:26 PM
Bitcoin has done very nicely as an asset class.  For the ostensible purpose it was intended - a currency for facilitating transactions or a substitute for government fiat currency - it has been a predictable disaster. In 2017, Bitcoin hit 300,000 daily transactions.  It's held roughly at that level through ups and down over 4 years.  300,000 daily transactions is nice if you are selling smartphones, so-so if selling cups of coffee, and laughingly inadequate for a proposed currency.  Its failure as money is directly related to its success as an asset: no one wants to use a form of money whose value fluctuates wildly day-to-day and which increases in value - i.e. causes price deflation - in double or triple digit percentages annually.

Bitcoin cannot and will never succeed as money - it was fatally flawed from inception - but that doesn't mean it can't succeed as an speculative investment asset. While it's true it lacks "intrinsic value," that is true of many successful investment assets like fine art or collectibles. Bitcoin does not have heritage connotations like some of these assets but it does have one of the attributes that make them successful - a strong and committed community of enthusiasts.  As long at that continues to hold true, the value will continue to go up as Bitcoin is designed to enhance its relative scarcity over time.  So there is some rational basis for optimism over a 5 or even 10 year time horizon.

Longer term, can Bitcoin retain enthusiasm and commitment in a similar manner as Old Dutch Masters or French Impressionists?  It's possible but I have my doubts.

The problem is your starting point that Bitcoin had a purpose for which it was intended.  It was intended to be a proof of concept for how block chain tech could work.  That it why it is flawed for the ostensible purpose you have suggested.  It is kind of like a aberrant stamp.  It might have value because it is finite by design.  But it is never going to be a replacement currency.  Again because it is finite by design.  But it works pretty well as an alternative.

Other Cryptos don't have the same drawbacks as Bitcoin and are better designed.  They have moved beyond the proof of concept phase.  But what the future holds for any of those alternatives is nothing but a guess.  The one thing something like, say, Ether has going for it, is a researcher can add their calculations to what is being solved by the miners to have access to the worlds most powerful supercomputer.  It is also not finite and is secure, at least for now.  So it has some advantages over dealing with the very unsecure ways we currently transfer electronic funds using the banks with varying degrees of security.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 24, 2021, 02:42:26 PM
IMHO best case scenario for crypto, the technology will be employed to record actual money, although I am sceptical.

Other than that these will be speculative "assets" and neat way for paying for illegal stuff and perhaps money laundering.

As it's been said about Bitcoin a while ago, it's a great solution to a problem that hasn't been invented yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 02:46:37 PM
Quote from: Tamas on May 24, 2021, 02:42:26 PM
IMHO best case scenario for crypto, the technology will be employed to record actual money, although I am sceptical.

Other than that these will be speculative "assets" and neat way for paying for illegal stuff and perhaps money laundering.

As it's been said about Bitcoin a while ago, it's a great solution to a problem that hasn't been invented yet.


My knowledge of the tech is obviously limited, but iirc the security of a block chain is that it cannot be altered externally and so I am not sure how it could record anything external to what is generated on its leger without making it something different from a block chain and destroy its security.

And again the problem is the analysis that focuses on Bitcoin.  It was not invented to be a solution to anything.  It was simply a proof of concept.  So saying it does not solve a problem doesn't tell us much. What came in later iterations do solve problems - Ether provides researchers with access to computing power they cannot get anywhere else, as just one example.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 24, 2021, 03:32:59 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 02:46:37 PM
Quote from: Tamas on May 24, 2021, 02:42:26 PM
IMHO best case scenario for crypto, the technology will be employed to record actual money, although I am sceptical.

Other than that these will be speculative "assets" and neat way for paying for illegal stuff and perhaps money laundering.

As it's been said about Bitcoin a while ago, it's a great solution to a problem that hasn't been invented yet.


My knowledge of the tech is obviously limited, but iirc the security of a block chain is that it cannot be altered externally and so I am not sure how it could record anything external to what is generated on its leger without making it something different from a block chain and destroy its security.

And again the problem is the analysis that focuses on Bitcoin.  It was not invented to be a solution to anything.  It was simply a proof of concept.  So saying it does not solve a problem doesn't tell us much. What came in later iterations do solve problems - Ether provides researchers with access to computing power they cannot get anywhere else, as just one example.

Yeah fine but if you are not paying for something you don't want  authorities to know you are paying for it, what's the point of using blockchain as currency?

I guess, if it was under government control, a blockchain-based currency could be very useful in tracing transaction histories, wouldn't it? But the "private revolution of currency" angle touted by many blockchain proponents I think at best naive at worst sinister.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 03:50:59 PM
Quote from: Tamas on May 24, 2021, 03:32:59 PM
Yeah fine but if you are not paying for something you don't want  authorities to know you are paying for it, what's the point of using blockchain as currency?

Already explained above, in a word, security. 

QuoteI guess, if it was under government control, a blockchain-based currency could be very useful in tracing transaction histories, wouldn't it? But the "private revolution of currency" angle touted by many blockchain proponents I think at best naive at worst sinister.

Yes, I think this is a significant point that most miss.  The purpose of a blockchain is to be secure and unalterable.  If governments regulate the identifiers of the accounts through which the transactions flow voila - Traceable transactions.  I think it will always remain a form of private currency though.  I am not sure how an algorithm generated product can ever replace the fiat of a state currency.  By definition those are two very different concepts. 

There are a lot of actors, beyond the stereotypical drug lords, that would not want this to happen.  Think about how much easier it would be for taxing authorities to audit.  And how much more difficult it would be to abuse off shore tax havens.  Come to think of it, if the Biden proposal for internal minimum tax polices goes anywhere, a viable blockchain currency would support that considerably.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 24, 2021, 04:20:20 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 02:23:47 PM
The problem is your starting point that Bitcoin had a purpose for which it was intended.  It was intended to be a proof of concept for how block chain tech could work. 

Right - it says something about the intensity of the enthusiasm for the concept that bitcoin has been taken so far from its original presentation.

QuoteOther Cryptos don't have the same drawbacks as Bitcoin and are better designed.  They have moved beyond the proof of concept phase.  But what the future holds for any of those alternatives is nothing but a guess.  The one thing something like, say, Ether has going for it, is a researcher can add their calculations to what is being solved by the miners to have access to the worlds most powerful supercomputer.  It is also not finite and is secure, at least for now.  So it has some advantages over dealing with the very unsecure ways we currently transfer electronic funds using the banks with varying degrees of security.

Well, Ether is the only other one I have even a vauge understanding about.  And that understanding is that the design was supposed to emphasize its flexibility for use in different kinds of transactions.  That's a sound approach in theory but in practice Ether is having the same "problem" as Bitcoin - it has been too successful as a speculative asset category, which really hampers its development as a transactional utility.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 04:34:26 PM
Speculation aside, Ether is a very different creature from Bitcoin.  I think it is valid to ask the question Tamas asked - ie what problem does this tech solve.   But where the analysis goes wrong imo, is to then answer that question using the Bitcoin example and then compound the error by assuming the whole lot of them have the same shortfalls.  I think it is likely that some wiz kid is out there improving what Ether has to offer using the blockchain tech.  There are lots of things that can be done with it.  I think that focusing on only Bitcoin is a bit like writing off air flight since the Wright brothers didn't travel very far with their proof of concept. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on May 24, 2021, 04:35:46 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 03:50:59 PM
Already explained above, in a word, security. 

IMO bitcoin lacks security. It has none of the protections against fraud or accidental loss that real currencies have. Can't speak to any of the other crypto currencies.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 24, 2021, 04:47:18 PM
As to ether, it is still "mined" and it is mined using CPU power, so that's a pretty bad flaw. If they move to proof of stake it solves the environmental problem but gives more power with those who have a vested interest in maintaining or inflating its value.  I would note that while ethereum has a better transaction flow than bitcoin, it's still pretty weak - around 1.2 million transactions daily now, as compared to 1 million in early 2018.  It's not fulfilling its ostensible purpose.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 04:53:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on May 24, 2021, 04:35:46 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 03:50:59 PM
Already explained above, in a word, security. 

IMO bitcoin lacks security. It has none of the protections against fraud or accidental loss that real currencies have. Can't speak to any of the other crypto currencies.

What protections do you have in mind?  Fraud using real currencies is a multi billion dollar endeavor.  We have had to resort to completely locking down my father in law's access to his real currency because of it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 04:55:23 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 24, 2021, 04:47:18 PM
As to ether, it is still "mined" and it is mined using CPU power, so that's a pretty bad flaw. If they move to proof of stake it solves the environmental problem but gives more power with those who have a vested interest in maintaining or inflating its value.  I would note that while ethereum has a better transaction flow than bitcoin, it's still pretty weak - around 1.2 million transactions daily now, as compared to 1 million in early 2018.  It's not fulfilling its ostensible purpose.

I think you are again misattributing it's ostensible purpose to being only one thing that blockchain technology can do.  It already performs more that that one claimed purpose. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 24, 2021, 06:14:27 PM
If there is some purpose other then use in transactions, then yes - I am not aware of that use and presumably am misattributing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 07:49:07 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 24, 2021, 06:14:27 PM
If there is some purpose other then use in transactions, then yes - I am not aware of that use and presumably am misattributing.

As referred to above, one of the things Ether does it is allows researchers to purchase time so that the miners are actually solving those equations - giving researchers access to the most powerful supercomputer on the planet.

But to your main point, identifying the number of financial transitions it is presently used for is again like saying the Wright Brothers were barking up the wrong tree. 

Also, small quibble, you stated earlier that Ether miners use CPUs to mine presently.  I think you meant to mine GPUs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 24, 2021, 09:20:01 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 07:49:07 PM
But to your main point, identifying the number of financial transitions it is presently used for is again like saying the Wright Brothers were barking up the wrong tree. 

12 years after the Wright Brothers flight was 1915 - numbers of aircraft, flights, range, miles travelled had all increased exponentially over that time and there had been major breakthroughs in flight and aircraft construction technology.  The use cases for aircraft had vastly expanded.  There really is no comparison.  To make the comparison you would have to imagine a world where aircraft technology in 1915 had advanced roughly to the 1906 level and airplanes were still mainly being used for novelty and experimental purposes, but hobbyists and wealthy enthusiasts had pushed the prices of airplanes to the cost of mansions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 25, 2021, 10:10:10 AM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 24, 2021, 09:20:01 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 24, 2021, 07:49:07 PM
But to your main point, identifying the number of financial transitions it is presently used for is again like saying the Wright Brothers were barking up the wrong tree. 

12 years after the Wright Brothers flight was 1915 - numbers of aircraft, flights, range, miles travelled had all increased exponentially over that time and there had been major breakthroughs in flight and aircraft construction technology.  The use cases for aircraft had vastly expanded.  There really is no comparison.  To make the comparison you would have to imagine a world where aircraft technology in 1915 had advanced roughly to the 1906 level and airplanes were still mainly being used for novelty and experimental purposes, but hobbyists and wealthy enthusiasts had pushed the prices of airplanes to the cost of mansions.

I am not sure you understand how Ether or Bitcoin operate even within the narrow constraints you have defined.  It is possible to buy and sell in increments.  You don't purchase a full "coin".
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 25, 2021, 10:59:51 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 25, 2021, 10:10:10 AM
I am not sure you understand how Ether or Bitcoin operate even within the narrow constraints you have defined.  It is possible to buy and sell in increments.  You don't purchase a full "coin".

Right and it is possible to purchase a ticket for a one way flight as opposed to buying an entire passenger jet.

The point is that however one slices it up, there just aren't very many cryptocurrency transactions.

Sure it is nice that Ethereum figured out of way to impart use value to their proof of work computations but Ethereum wasn't set up as a kind of virtual high performance computing facility for third party researchers; there are more straightforward means of accomplishing that end.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:29:58 PM
Some sanity detected in the WSJ...   :sleep:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ban-cryptocurrency-to-fight-ransomware-11621962831
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 27, 2021, 12:21:33 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 25, 2021, 10:59:51 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on May 25, 2021, 10:10:10 AM
I am not sure you understand how Ether or Bitcoin operate even within the narrow constraints you have defined.  It is possible to buy and sell in increments.  You don't purchase a full "coin".

Right and it is possible to purchase a ticket for a one way flight as opposed to buying an entire passenger jet.

The point is that however one slices it up, there just aren't very many cryptocurrency transactions.

Sure it is nice that Ethereum figured out of way to impart use value to their proof of work computations but Ethereum wasn't set up as a kind of virtual high performance computing facility for third party researchers; there are more straightforward means of accomplishing that end.

Bad analogy.  purchasing crypto in increments less than a full coin does not equate to getting something inferior.

You are returning to the logic that because it is not widely used some negative inference should be drawn.  All new financial transaction technologies have taken time to be adopted.  I remember a time when credit card usage was not routine.  Ether is the first cryptocurrency that has gone beyond the bitcoin proof of concept phase.  And it is not yet in its final form.  It is very much premature to be passing judgment on the viability of a technology still in its infancy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 27, 2021, 12:22:19 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on May 26, 2021, 05:29:58 PM
Some sanity detected in the WSJ...   :sleep:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ban-cryptocurrency-to-fight-ransomware-11621962831

Why not just ban ransomware....  oh yeah, Governments can't just waive a magic wand.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on May 27, 2021, 12:28:39 PM
If you ban ransomware, only criminals will have ransomware!  :mad:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on May 27, 2021, 01:02:26 PM
Quote from: Syt on May 27, 2021, 12:28:39 PM
If you ban ransomware, only criminals will have ransomware!  :mad:

:D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 03, 2021, 08:52:53 AM
A very good week across the board.
A lot of missed opportunities for me, not a gambler by nature et al, but still made a few hundred from meme stocks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 05, 2021, 04:57:14 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ct3mQLZx8xE

AMC is cashing in on meme stock status by issuing buttloads of shares.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 03:02:59 AM
So, I've decided to take all my fun* savings, about 200$ and invest in meme stocks. What's the strategy people use?

*I sold my old Amiga for about 100$ five or so years ago, put the money in a small internet bank and invested in index funds, just to try out that broker.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 07, 2021, 03:29:07 AM
Quote from: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 03:02:59 AM
So, I've decided to take all my fun* savings, about 200$ and invest in meme stocks. What's the strategy people use?

*I sold my old Amiga for about 100$ five or so years ago, put the money in a small internet bank and invested in index funds, just to try out that broker.
Find a time machine to skip back a week or two or cross your fingers and wait for them to come back down again.

For me this time around it was Blackberry, which at its low single figure prices was a decent long term buy anyway. And a (sadly very small) amount of AMC as it was also at a reasonable price and cinemas reopening seemed a natural winner.

Though hey, I'm overly careful.

My general strategy... yeah. Look at the various sub-reddits.  See what is trending with decent and believable writeups by established posters behind it. Read up on them elsewhere to see if they are viable. And if the price is currently reasonable so you're unlikely to really lose much if it doesn't go anywhere then go for it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 03:35:33 AM
Yes, it was prompted last week by me going into wallstreetbets for the first time, noticed that they talked about blackberry, noticed that what they said made sense, wanted to buy but my money was locked into the index funds. Day after blackberry is up 35%...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 07, 2021, 04:41:06 AM
IIRC AMC was struggling even pre-pandemic so it was never more than a gamble, Tyr :p
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 07, 2021, 04:51:06 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 07, 2021, 04:41:06 AM
IIRC AMC was struggling even pre-pandemic so it was never more than a gamble, Tyr :p
First time around yes. But the last time it shot up alongside the first big GME spike there was a lot reported about how its business was saved, its debt problems were solved, etc....
Yet still it fell back into mid-single figures.
Honestly I wasn't expecting it to go up again and sold it way too early. Thought I was just going to get a few dollars off it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 04:53:48 AM
Some of the companies they talk about are not necessarily stupid investments. Sure, not something I would normally invest in, but anyway. Take Clover Health Investments, Corp. for example. Someone is trying to get that to lift, and if it lifts AMC-style then it's an excellent investment. If it doesn't lift the value should hold somewhat in the short to middle term and the gamble holds far less risk than AMC...

On the other hand, I'm an engineer, I'm probably talking out of my ass.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 07, 2021, 01:54:01 PM
Quote from: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 03:02:59 AM
What's the strategy people use?

Split strike conversion.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 01:55:27 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 07, 2021, 01:54:01 PM
Quote from: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 03:02:59 AM
What's the strategy people use?

Split strike conversion.

Come again?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 07, 2021, 01:59:00 PM
Quote from: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 01:55:27 PM
Come again?

I'm jerking your chain.

"Split strike conversion" is the strategy Bernie Madoff claimed to be using for his Ponzi scheme.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 01:59:44 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 07, 2021, 01:59:00 PM
I'm jerking your chain.

"Split strike conversion" is the strategy Bernie Madoff claimed to be using for his Ponzi scheme.

:D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on June 07, 2021, 02:07:17 PM
Quote from: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 03:02:59 AM
So, I've decided to take all my fun* savings, about 200$ and invest in meme stocks. What's the strategy people use?

*I sold my old Amiga for about 100$ five or so years ago, put the money in a small internet bank and invested in index funds, just to try out that broker.

If you're going to invest in meme stocks, pick one of the ones that WSB is hyping up in the near future and roll the dice on calls/puts. If you're gambling, why not go for the gold?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 07, 2021, 02:14:22 PM
I was going to say one advantage of buying options is you don't have to fuck around with diamond hands and paper hands, but I realized that's not true.  If your option is in the money you very much have to worry about those things.

Another advantage of selling options.  :smoke:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 07, 2021, 02:40:02 PM
Threviel for the love of God do not sell uncovered calls.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 07, 2021, 03:59:54 PM
I will not do anything fancy, either all in on some stock or back into my funds. Looks like CLOV for now, I will decide when I get access to the cash.

It's just 200$ and it's just for fun.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 01:09:43 AM
So... I laid my order for CLOV, apparently I had 254$ so I put in an order for 21 stocks for 11,94. To the stonk and up!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 08, 2021, 02:57:15 AM
Quote from: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 01:09:43 AM
So... I laid my order for CLOV, apparently I had 254$ so I put in an order for 21 stocks for 11,94. To the stonk and up!

To prove you how bad an idea it is, I have purchased 25 shares at 11.82 yesterday. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 03:01:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on June 08, 2021, 02:57:15 AM
Quote from: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 01:09:43 AM
So... I laid my order for CLOV, apparently I had 254$ so I put in an order for 21 stocks for 11,94. To the stonk and up!

To prove you how bad an idea it is, I have purchased 25 shares at 11.82 yesterday. :P

It was at 8 when I had the idea to buy it, so I expect that it will be back at 8 shortly. :Embarrass:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 08, 2021, 10:07:35 AM
Been too busy to look at stocks this week.
Should have bought clov. Wow. Well done. Hope you sold at the top.

... Or I'm wrong and it has further to go.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 10:53:57 AM
Forgot all about it, I did not get any with my 11.94 order. Dang. Second time I was right and missed big.  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 08, 2021, 11:01:15 AM
Quote from: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 10:53:57 AM
Forgot all about it, I did not get any with my 11.94 order. Dang. Second time I was right and missed big.  :lol:

:pinch:

I feel dirty when such ridiculous meme stocks work out. It's nonsense.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 12:11:18 PM
Hot dang, it's soon at 21... Well well, time to go look for my next meme stock.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 08, 2021, 12:14:51 PM
Tell me what I should buy next. This is absolutely not  beginners luck. I'm sure of it.

It's dirty for sure. I know a guy made a lot of a company with the ticker bbq. Which he bought purely because pork is nice.
I'm looking at nakd to get a similarly ridiculous boost. Again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 12:20:50 PM
Let me be very clear: Everything I talk about here is only fun and games. I am in no way investing any serious money in these meme stocks and I am in no way taking any risks above and beyond my play money and I do not recommend that you buy anything I ever talk about.

And to explain, for Blackberry it made sense to invest, they are sitting on a lot of intellectual property and they have potential to grow under the current business model, at least as far as I could ascertain, I've forgotten the details. Now massively over-priced due to memes.

The same with CLOV, the company was sensibly valued at 10ish dollars, so any investment in it shouldn't be a massive risk, if I would have bought at 12 the worst case was that it would have gone back to 8, 33% loss. Huge losses, but manageable (since it's just a game for fun, not manageable with my real investment fund). And I did not expect it to go back to 8. Now, at 21 or whatever it is massively overpriced due to meme hype, so best to sell. Sure, it might go up more, I would guess to 24 or so*, but still, better sell when ahead.

So on to look for a trending meme stock that has had a stable price for at least half a year or so, but crucially also one that makes sense to invest in regardless of meme status.

* I have contacts in the department of things guessed out of my ass.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 02:39:42 PM
So.. I've been reading wallstreetbets for several minutes. Apparently CLNE might be the next big thing. It's a utilities company dealing in environmentally friendly gas and it might have an ok future. It does seem to be reasonably priced, a far bit below its maximum.

My estimation, based on the smell of my latest fart and the look of its price curve is that it will bottom at around 6.50 if it goes down. I went all-in and bought 26 stocks for 9.82. To the moon stonkingly.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 08, 2021, 02:43:52 PM
I was joking. As said that's my approach too.

CLNE is one I've been in a bit since it was down at 2. Made a fair bit selling at the last peak and rebuying since.

Really not sure on it long term but medium term it seems decent.

I'm surprised WSB has picked up on it now. It's shorted heavily enough for their attention?

A company called broadwind is one that has got my attention lately. Suspect it could be due for a rise and is near its bottom.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2021, 02:44:51 PM
You might not be getting the full stonk experience Threviel.

As I understand it the full stonk comes when a shit stock goes 10X or 20X because of a short squeeze, i.e. GME and AMC.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on June 08, 2021, 02:47:10 PM
Yes, what Yi said. In addition, you don't buy the stock itself, but YOLO into deep OTM call options to really make your bet shine if it pays off.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 02:50:52 PM
Come again? Please talk to me in economic retard.

Edit: To Habby, not Yi.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 08, 2021, 02:54:18 PM
If you are an American you could buy options on most of these shares. Which is an easy way to make incredibly high losses if you are not careful, but also sound like a reasonable way of making good payout bets if done carefully and you don't mind losing money.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on June 08, 2021, 02:54:42 PM
 :lol: I am afraid to explain how options work because I don't want to encourage anyone to buy them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 02:55:17 PM
Yes, not that retard. What does OTM stand for?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 02:56:43 PM
I do know what an option is, I'm an engineer, maths is not that hard. But I do not know the english economical lingo with all its acronyms.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on June 08, 2021, 02:57:47 PM
"Out of The Money", IE options with a strike price (the price at which you are buying the right to purchase the stock) at a level above (or below in the case of puts) current price levels.

A fast and loose example is buying call options on a stock with a strike price at $10 while the stock's current price is, say, $2. That would be extra-deep OTM. It's highly unlikely to work, but is also typically very cheap, so if you ever actually exercise the option, you will make out like a bandit.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2021, 03:01:54 PM
"Make out like a bandit" means you will make a lot of money. :nerd:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 03:04:51 PM
Aha, I was hoping for love under a star studded night sky with my ill-gotten gains shining in a corner of my den.  :cry:

Or seriously: Crikey, that shit sounds dangerous.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2021, 03:07:23 PM
YOLO!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 03:13:32 PM
It seems wallstreetbets strategy with AMC is to buy and hold. Shorters continuously shorting it and failing will presumably drive up the price. And it seems to be working so far.

This thing is going to pop like a balloon once it pops and AMC is going to end up being owned by some very poor redditors.

What is the flaw in my reasoning?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 08, 2021, 03:20:16 PM
The theory is when the short squeeze finally hits it shoots up to infinity ala volkswagon and there's enough demand from the shorters that it will stay at the top for long enough to get out.
How realistic this is.... I think a lot of the WSB are egging each other on to be diamond hands and never to sell with the full intent of selling themselves when they think it has peaked.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 08, 2021, 03:22:50 PM
Quote from: Tyr on June 08, 2021, 03:20:16 PM
I think a lot of the WSB are egging each other on to be diamond hands and never to sell with the full intent of selling themselves when they think it has peaked.

Indeed.

Best case scenario for the "hodlers" to AMC become like GME with violent and unexpected moves in both directions. But unlike Gamestop, AMC seems perfectly willing to use this to save themselves from financial ruin, and as I understand have been releasing new stock since the GME days and the last time only very recently. I can't see it not tanking eventually.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2021, 03:23:15 PM
Quote from: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 03:13:32 PM
It seems wallstreetbets strategy with AMC is to buy and hold. Shorters continuously shorting it and failing will presumably drive up the price. And it seems to be working so far.

This thing is going to pop like a balloon once it pops and AMC is going to end up being owned by some very poor redditors.

What is the flaw in my reasoning?

There is no flaw in your reasoning.  You don't want to be the one holding the stock when the music ends.  You don't want to be the last guy at the party.

Well, your description of short sellers is a little off.  Short selling is not per se a strategy intended to lower the price.  It's a bet, much like an option, that the price will go lower on its own, typically because of weak fundamentals (i.e. earnings). 

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 03:38:12 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2021, 03:23:15 PM
Quote from: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 03:13:32 PM
It seems wallstreetbets strategy with AMC is to buy and hold. Shorters continuously shorting it and failing will presumably drive up the price. And it seems to be working so far.

This thing is going to pop like a balloon once it pops and AMC is going to end up being owned by some very poor redditors.

What is the flaw in my reasoning?

There is no flaw in your reasoning.  You don't want to be the one holding the stock when the music ends.  You don't want to be the last guy at the party.

Well, your description of short sellers is a little off.  Short selling is not per se a strategy intended to lower the price.  It's a bet, much like an option, that the price will go lower on its own, typically because of weak fundamentals (i.e. earnings).

Short selling is, IIUC, lending stocks, selling them, wait for them to drop, buy back at lower price, return stocks, profit!
By failing I mean it not dropping and that they therefore have to buy them back at a loss thereby driving the value upwards if everone else is just holding. I do not mean short squeeze here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2021, 03:43:42 PM
Quote from: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 03:38:12 PM
Short selling is, IIUC, lending stocks, selling them, wait for them to drop, buy back at lower price, return stocks, profit!
By failing I mean it not dropping and that they therefore have to buy them back at a loss thereby driving the value upwards if everone else is just holding. I do not mean short squeeze here.

OK.  It's true short sellers fail when the price goes up.

But I don't get the last sentence.  The price going up is the definition of a short squeeze.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 03:46:31 PM
As I understood the short squeeze on GME there was not enough stocks around to buy for the shorters, driving up the prices astronomically, they were squeezed. It was not a normal day-to-day event, it was something extraordinary.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2021, 03:58:30 PM
Quote from: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 03:46:31 PM
As I understood the short squeeze on GME there was not enough stocks around to buy for the shorters, driving up the prices astronomically, they were squeezed. It was not a normal day-to-day event, it was something extraordinary.

GME was different in that 120% of the float had been shorted, but any time the price rises on a short seller that constitutes a short squeeze.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 04:16:00 PM
Roger.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 08, 2021, 05:19:45 PM
Uhm no, not all and any price rises are short squeezes.

A short squeeze is when the price rises high enough (by accident or by deliberate action) that a lot of short positions are closing their shorts meaning buying shares meaning pushing the price higher meaning prompting more shorts to cover etc.

If you are shorting a stock and it closes the day 0.5% up you are not being short squeezed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 08, 2021, 05:22:12 PM
OK.  I looked it up and you're right.  There has to be a cycle of shorts covering their positions.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 09, 2021, 05:50:36 AM
Apparently CLNE is up 30ish percent in pre-market. This is just stupid.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 09, 2021, 06:34:02 AM
Yeah seeing what was going down I jumped in to a number of idiotic memes, all of them will be up on a range of 30-60% on open:
-CLNE
-WISH
-AHT

I also still have CLOV. I am going to keep CLOV probably and take profits (large percentage-wise, small in total as I didn't risk serious money) on all the above which fails to rally immediately onward.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 09, 2021, 09:38:42 AM
CLNE isn't idiotic :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 09, 2021, 12:46:36 PM
I am out of WISH on breakeven and CLOV on a nice gain. AHT has just about breakeven stop loss set

My next retard bet is... Tootsie Roll.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 09, 2021, 01:11:04 PM
Congrats! I'm holding on for dear life on CLNE. Or rather I've laid a sell order at 15.00.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 09, 2021, 02:58:56 PM
Quote from: Threviel on June 08, 2021, 02:39:42 PM
So.. I've been reading wallstreetbets for several minutes. Apparently CLNE might be the next big thing. It's a utilities company dealing in environmentally friendly gas and it might have an ok future. It does seem to be reasonably priced, a far bit below its maximum.

I believe the business model is based on supplying the transport sector which makes it highly speculative.  But at least there is the theoretical possibility of a growth story as opposed to say Gamestop.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 10, 2021, 04:57:47 AM
I shall remain with CLNE for a while yet. Hopefully this meme thing goes somewhere, if not its business as usual for me, it has a bit of rise to come should Biden lean heavier into support for the environment. Which I think he will.

WISH I hadn't heard of before but looking into it...It seems to be at a decent price right now. The lowest analyst target is above its current value. Very tempted there.,
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on June 10, 2021, 05:43:23 AM
Wish, if we are talking about the buy-cheap-stuff-from-China-company is a company whose services I use sometimes. I recently had a wrong delivery and they fixed that in an excellent manner without any kind of fuss. Good impression.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 10, 2021, 06:16:13 AM
Quote from: Threviel on June 10, 2021, 05:43:23 AM
Wish, if we are talking about the buy-cheap-stuff-from-China-company is a company whose services I use sometimes. I recently had a wrong delivery and they fixed that in an excellent manner without any kind of fuss. Good impression.

Yeah it's them but its a shitty company with a shitty half-scam service, and they are riddled with lawsuits.

The reason they are a meme is because of all the short interest, and everyone is in search of the next GME. One thing I think people are missing is that GME -if it ever was just a retail thing- worked because everyone concentrated on it. Now people are chasing like 8 different stocks criss-crossing around them.

BTW I think CLNE belongs to this group so I wouldn't consider it an investment. Plenty other legit renewables ETFs and companies to put your money into.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 10, 2021, 08:04:22 AM
5% inflation in the US of A.

Seems like limitless money printing, err. asset purchases by the Fed, can't continue for too long now. Button down your hatches and pay attention when gambling like a retard.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on June 10, 2021, 08:50:32 AM
The inflation numbers since March 2020 are all FUBAR because the consumption baskets are off and because of the wild supply and demand swings in the early shutdown months.  Plus the aftershocks on supply chains are still continuing, as anyone in the market for GPUs knows.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on June 10, 2021, 02:09:10 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 10, 2021, 08:04:22 AM
5% inflation in the US of A.

Seems like limitless money printing, err. asset purchases by the Fed, can't continue for too long now. Button down your hatches and pay attention when gambling like a retard.

I feel weirdly assured by this. I felt like that somehow the basic laws of economics didn't apply anymore. We have basically been trying to force inflation for a very long time, at least 15 years, and have been mostly unsuccessful at it.

So maybe this means reality still works.

Or maybe not. All this stuff eventually starts to feel unreal like wizards control the economy or something.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 10, 2021, 02:26:44 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 10, 2021, 06:16:13 AM
Quote from: Threviel on June 10, 2021, 05:43:23 AM
Wish, if we are talking about the buy-cheap-stuff-from-China-company is a company whose services I use sometimes. I recently had a wrong delivery and they fixed that in an excellent manner without any kind of fuss. Good impression.

Yeah it's them but its a shitty company with a shitty half-scam service, and they are riddled with lawsuits.

The reason they are a meme is because of all the short interest, and everyone is in search of the next GME. One thing I think people are missing is that GME -if it ever was just a retail thing- worked because everyone concentrated on it. Now people are chasing like 8 different stocks criss-crossing around them.

BTW I think CLNE belongs to this group so I wouldn't consider it an investment. Plenty other legit renewables ETFs and companies to put your money into.

CLNE Rose from sub $1 to above 10 due to natural factors. I bought into it as part of my Biden is going to win bet.

But true on gme. A lot of talk at the time about silver being touted and what are they going to hit next was claimed by the WSB lot to be inventions of the media specifically to distract.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on June 10, 2021, 03:09:55 PM
Quote from: Valmy on June 10, 2021, 02:09:10 PM
Quote from: Tamas on June 10, 2021, 08:04:22 AM
5% inflation in the US of A.

Seems like limitless money printing, err. asset purchases by the Fed, can't continue for too long now. Button down your hatches and pay attention when gambling like a retard.

I feel weirdly assured by this. I felt like that somehow the basic laws of economics didn't apply anymore. We have basically been trying to force inflation for a very long time, at least 15 years, and have been mostly unsuccessful at it.

So maybe this means reality still works.

Or maybe not. All this stuff eventually starts to feel unreal like wizards control the economy or something.
I think the inflation we're experiencing now is due to pent up demand for goods.  I think the lack of inflation we've been experiencing for a while now is because it reinvented itself as an asset bubble.  The rich like to spend money on speculative financial instruments rather than on consumer goods, and they've been the ones collecting most of the increase in income.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: grumbler on June 12, 2021, 12:51:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 10, 2021, 03:09:55 PM

I think the inflation we're experiencing now is due to pent up demand for goods.  I think the lack of inflation we've been experiencing for a while now is because it reinvented itself as an asset bubble.  The rich like to spend money on speculative financial instruments rather than on consumer goods, and they've been the ones collecting most of the increase in income.

I think that you are right, and that this is further evidence that trickle-down economics is total bullshit, and that income redistribution would be good for everyone (though holders of stocks would take a loss in the short term as there would be fewer rich morons bidding up stocks because they already own everything they want to own).  More money to the 90% would improve consumption and thus employment.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on June 12, 2021, 01:04:57 PM
Quote from: grumbler on June 12, 2021, 12:51:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 10, 2021, 03:09:55 PM

I think the inflation we're experiencing now is due to pent up demand for goods.  I think the lack of inflation we've been experiencing for a while now is because it reinvented itself as an asset bubble.  The rich like to spend money on speculative financial instruments rather than on consumer goods, and they've been the ones collecting most of the increase in income.

I think that you are right, and that this is further evidence that trickle-down economics is total bullshit, and that income redistribution would be good for everyone (though holders of stocks would take a loss in the short term as there would be fewer rich morons bidding up stocks because they already own everything they want to own).  More money to the 90% would improve consumption and thus employment.

In general I agree, but I think "trickle down" was originally meant to mean low taxes and in general not interfering with business incomes, as opposed to the ceaseless money printing and handing to banks that's been taking place the past decade. (I know it's not money given to them for free usage but rather asset purchases to keep them safe and stable but clearly that stability has been used to free up regular funds for risky investments and such).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 23, 2021, 03:13:34 PM
Viacom is rumbling.

Plumetted perhaps a few months ago but seems profitable and stable. Maybe plumetted too much.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on June 23, 2021, 03:15:57 PM
 :huh:

The drop was in March.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 23, 2021, 03:23:09 PM
Viacom crashed because it was a major holding of Archegos, the family firm that went bust and generated huge losses for Nomura, UBS, etc.

It's likely rising again on takeover speculation. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on June 25, 2021, 12:35:38 PM
Gambling goes here, right? So the stupid political gambling site I'm using has a discussion feature, which seems most useful for running pump and dump schemes. One of the markets to bet on is how many rounds it will take to determine the winner in the NYC Mayoral Race Democratic Primary (it is using ranked choice voting). Some dude just went insane before the election putting up a zillion arguments that the number of rounds would be exactly 11, which seemed both oddly specific and unlikely. Assumed he was just pumping and dumping.

So the election has happened, and while the number of rounds is still to be determined and could be 11, the odds for 11 have cratered.

So I looked this guy up in the discussion of that betting market to troll him about being stupid by picking 11, and he posted this.

QuoteI'm sorry

I became a caricature of the very thing I hated, or claimed to. I spoke of truth yet manufactured a lie. I berated others as stupid when it was I who felt stupid.

I recently got wiped out in crypto. Yes, btfo. I actually owe money because it dropped faster than the margin call could hit. I don't expect most to care but maybe a few will take some satisfaction karma was balanced.

Looked into AA today. I can see what I became and I don't like him. I will come correct if I return.

Gray, I owe you $100. It will be in your PayPal exactly one week from today.

Mea culpa, degenerates.

I guess he made a side bet with Gray on this thing....I decided not to troll him. I guess when you are running unsuccessful pump and dump schemes on the number of rounds to determine a winner in the NYC mayoral democratic primary, that is a really low point.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on June 25, 2021, 03:22:33 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 25, 2021, 12:35:38 PM
Gambling goes here, right?

Wrong.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on June 25, 2021, 03:23:13 PM
Gambling definitely goes here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on June 30, 2021, 04:05:36 PM
I'm surprised.
Seems something come of the GME fiasco and Robin Hood investigation.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/30/investing/robinhood-trading-fine-finra/index.html
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on June 30, 2021, 05:26:28 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on June 25, 2021, 03:22:33 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on June 25, 2021, 12:35:38 PM
Gambling goes here, right?

Wrong.

Lots of talk about making quick profits on what amounts to day trading - what is the difference?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 18, 2021, 12:07:49 PM
Robinhood has IPOed.  I sold a put on it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 31, 2021, 11:29:49 AM
I saw this collection of stock screeners-
https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/lglskh/collection_of_finviz_screeners/

And thought some sounded pretty interesting so I've set up an experiment with them of setting up (fake money) portfolios from them and checking back in regularly to see which performs best.
Early doors yet, I've only done one iteration, need to setup more portfolios on different representative days... but number 5 is seeming to be the best performer. 12.62% growth over a month. Not bad. 15 is in second.
Number 6 worst. -8.24%. 3 not far behind.

Any thoughts?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 11, 2021, 03:33:43 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0exa28omOTg

Covered call ETF.  QYLD yields 11.5% selling covered calls against the NASDAQ 100 index.  However unlike regular dividend names or ETFs the dividends in QYLD will not grow over time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 28, 2021, 05:43:28 PM
Tesla going nutty again.  My $810 call got assigned, so I employed "the wheel" strategy and sold the $810 put.  Surprisingly high premium for an option $200 out of the money.

That leaves me 70 shares of Tesla.  Toying with the idea of unloading the 20 shares in my taxed account and rolling that money into a dividend ETF.

Tonto, you're the other Teslanaire here.  HODLing?  Bailing?

Robinhood also dropped so looks like my put might get assigned there too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on October 28, 2021, 05:58:55 PM
Holding on to 70 shares of Tesla? You are a brave man, and I admire your gambling ways.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 28, 2021, 06:07:29 PM
I haven't been paying attention to the stock/meme news for months, was there a special reason for Tesla to go above $1000?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 28, 2021, 06:08:00 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on October 28, 2021, 05:58:55 PM
Holding on to 70 shares of Tesla? You are a brave man, and I admire your gambling ways.

And trying to buy 100 more @810.  :(
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 28, 2021, 06:09:29 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 28, 2021, 06:07:29 PM
I haven't been paying attention to the stock/meme news for months, was there a special reason for Tesla to go above $1000?

Well, several firms did issue price targets of 900+ a while back.  But short answer no.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on October 28, 2021, 06:19:18 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 28, 2021, 06:07:29 PM
I haven't been paying attention to the stock/meme news for months, was there a special reason for Tesla to go above $1000?

Yes. Hertz (big, but bankruptcy-troubled car rental business) announced an order of 100,000 Teslas to fit out their fleet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on October 28, 2021, 06:19:42 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 28, 2021, 06:08:00 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on October 28, 2021, 05:58:55 PM
Holding on to 70 shares of Tesla? You are a brave man, and I admire your gambling ways.

And trying to buy 100 more @810.  :(

Do you need to borrow some money? :shifty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 28, 2021, 06:21:16 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on October 28, 2021, 06:19:42 PM
Do you need to borrow some money? :shifty:

Don't get it.   :huh:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on October 28, 2021, 06:22:43 PM
If you're trying to buy more at 810 with your call, what's stopping you?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 28, 2021, 06:26:26 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on October 28, 2021, 06:22:43 PM
If you're trying to buy more at 810 with your call, what's stopping you?

I *sold* a put, I didn't buy a call.

That's the way the wheel works.  Sell the call until assigned, then sell the put until assigned.  Rinse and repeat.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on October 28, 2021, 06:28:27 PM
Ah, gotcha, misunderstood what your strategy was.

I'd still offload all your Tesla.  :sleep:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 30, 2021, 12:44:14 PM
Here's something I don't understand about puts, maybe someone can explain it to me.

So I sold a $37 Robinhood put and it got assigned.  So I expected that I would own 100 shares of Robinhood at a purchase price of $37. 

But instead my purchase price is $35.7467.  What gives?  I was obligated to buy shares at 37 but someone gave me a break.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 02, 2021, 02:48:08 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UOJ5tTZEZI

Long discussion summarizing the SEC report on the Gamestop saga.

TLDNW: the reddit yahoos were wrong about everything.

The most interesting to me how was how tiny the short covering was compared to retail investor buying.  In other words, short covering contributed to the massive price rise at the beginning, but then it was 100% wallstreetbettors bidding up a bubble.

He's got a link to the 45 page report if you'd rather read it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 02, 2021, 08:22:13 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 30, 2021, 12:44:14 PM
Here's something I don't understand about puts, maybe someone can explain it to me.

So I sold a $37 Robinhood put and it got assigned.  So I expected that I would own 100 shares of Robinhood at a purchase price of $37. 

But instead my purchase price is $35.7467.  What gives?  I was obligated to buy shares at 37 but someone gave me a break.

Seems like a glitch.  That would make sense as the sales price for the put owner (assuming commission is charged).  But not what you would pay.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2021, 01:34:58 PM
Looking for suggestions of stocks to sell puts against.

Selling Tesla puts is no longer a good deal for me, as I can't make 1% a month at a 810 strike.  The 810 is to maintain my cost basis.

Just sold 2 Airbnb puts, but that leaves me a chunk of change from selling Tesla that I want to put to work covering puts.

Ideal candidates are upward trending with some nice volatility.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on November 29, 2021, 03:13:14 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2021, 01:34:58 PM
Looking for suggestions of stocks to sell puts against.

Selling Tesla puts is no longer a good deal for me, as I can't make 1% a month at a 810 strike.  The 810 is to maintain my cost basis.

Just sold 2 Airbnb puts, but that leaves me a chunk of change from selling Tesla that I want to put to work covering puts.

Ideal candidates are upward trending with some nice volatility.

Big Pharmas
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on November 29, 2021, 03:19:19 PM
Rolls Royce, IAG, most of the British economy at the moment seems to be in a dip ala last year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2021, 03:26:39 PM
Thanks for the suggestions.

I can't do Rolls Royce because Etrade only allows trading on US markets.  What is IAG?

Pharma is a possibility, though it would be a little duplicative of my health care ETF.

I just thought of Beyond Meat.  Gotta look at a chart and a Motley Fool article.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on November 29, 2021, 03:27:43 PM
International Airlines group

British Airways and Co.
No idea how American companies in the field are doing but omicron has crashed their recovery.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2021, 04:22:07 PM
Brrrf. Don't wanna have anything to do with airlines, especially legacy carriers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on November 30, 2021, 05:04:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2021, 04:22:07 PM
Brrrf. Don't wanna have anything to do with airlines, especially legacy carriers.
. Whys that?
They aren't going to massively multiply a hundred times over but are critically undervalued.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2021, 05:10:10 AM
Because they seem to operate on a perpetual boom and bust cycle.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on November 30, 2021, 05:53:28 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2021, 05:10:10 AM
Because they seem to operate on a perpetual boom and bust cycle.
That makes them a good buy during a bust right?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 30, 2021, 05:59:05 AM
Quote from: Tyr on November 30, 2021, 05:53:28 AM
That makes them a good buy during a bust right?

Unless your ownership gets diluted because of the bailout structure.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 09, 2022, 01:23:08 PM
After having taken profit on my so far most profitable single trade (bunch of Ford stocks held for almost a year and sold for 100% profit), I now have a bit of money to put in stocks. What should I buy if I want to bet on a continued high inflation worldwide and the resulting political instability, and the possible end of the print-money-like-there's-no-tomorrow policy of the last decade?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2022, 04:09:49 PM
It's easier to say what you should short in a high inflation/high interest rate environment--highly indebted companies--than what you should go long.

Maybe banks?  I think the conventional wisdom is that higher rates widen their margin.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on January 10, 2022, 01:14:26 AM
I believe Tamas has already had the"joy" of holding Lloyds bank shares  :lol:

They are a big domestic retail bank, lots of mortgage loans that sort of thing. The recent rise in interest rates led to an immediate rise in loan rates here, but no increase in savers' rates; so theoretically thay are a good buy as they will coin it as the interest rates continue to rise.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 10, 2022, 03:51:04 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on January 10, 2022, 01:14:26 AM
I believe Tamas has already had the"joy" of holding Lloyds bank shares  :lol:

They are a big domestic retail bank, lots of mortgage loans that sort of thing. The recent rise in interest rates led to an immediate rise in loan rates here, but no increase in savers' rates; so theoretically thay are a good buy as they will coin it as the interest rates continue to rise.

Indeed.  :lol:

I am less in the red with that stock since rate hikes have become likely, in fact.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on January 10, 2022, 04:15:05 AM
It is a conundrum, if I buy they will rattle along at 50p or so, if i don't buy they will double in 18 months  :hmm: :lmfao:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 10, 2022, 05:30:57 AM
Canadian banks have been flying.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on January 10, 2022, 06:04:39 AM
I took the plunge and bought some  :bowler:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 10, 2022, 06:06:37 AM
Isn't Lloyd's at a high point right now? :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on January 10, 2022, 06:09:14 AM
We'll see.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 10, 2022, 06:54:20 AM
Quote from: Tyr on January 10, 2022, 06:06:37 AM
Isn't Lloyd's at a high point right now? :unsure:

Tyr the Capitalist.

:hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 10, 2022, 11:35:56 AM
Tyr the Gambler, based on his past statements.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on January 10, 2022, 01:39:05 PM
Money and the stock market are facts of life.
That I hope in the long term they cease to exist doesn't mean I think it's imminent. And I live in the world as it is. :p
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: mongers on January 10, 2022, 01:46:24 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 10, 2022, 01:39:05 PM
Money and the stock market are facts of life.
That I hope in the long term they cease to exist doesn't mean I think it's imminent. And I live in the world as it is. :p

Most socialist 'compromise' in this way.  :bowler:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 10, 2022, 03:00:05 PM
Quote from: Tyr on January 10, 2022, 05:30:57 AM
Canadian banks have been flying.

Canadian banks have been the bedrock of Canadian portfolio managers since the 90s.   :Canuck:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 21, 2022, 04:30:16 AM
Mah stocks!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2022, 04:37:25 AM
This thread is not quite as much fun when you're getting slaughtered.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on January 21, 2022, 04:47:00 AM
My portfolio lost 10% since December. :(

It's still 30% in the green, though. :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 21, 2022, 04:47:11 AM
https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/let-the-wild-rumpus-begin/

QuoteAll 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend. But before they did, a handful went on to become superbubbles of 3-sigma or greater: in the U.S. in 1929 and 2000 and in Japan in 1989. There were also superbubbles in housing in the U.S. in 2006 and Japan in 1989. All five of these superbubbles corrected all the way back to trend with much greater and longer pain than average.Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years.Previous equity superbubbles had a series of distinct features that individually are rare and collectively are unique to these events. In each case, these shared characteristics have already occurred in this cycle. The checklist for a superbubble running through its phases is now complete and the wild rumpus can begin at any time

QuoteA speculative investor frenzy that generated stories for distant decades, which we have had for well over a year;
A penultimate blow-off phase where stock gains accelerate, as we had in 2020;
And the ultimate narrowing phase – unique to these few superbubbles – where a decreasing number of very large blue chips go up as riskier and more speculative stocks underperform or even decline, as they did in 1929 and 2000 and as they have done since February 2021.
All previous large bubbles have deflated back to their trend levels, Grantham explains. This time, this would mean the S&P 500 index plunging around 45%, back to its trend value of about 2500 points.

Grantham explains:

The bottom line is that in general the bubbles in multiple assets, not just equities, have continued to inflate and therefore the potential pain from a break has increased.

As usually happens, the equity bubble begins to deflate from the riskiest end of the market first – as it has been doing since last February. So, good luck! We'll all need it.

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/1bb09a4f16ccec790c04d8efc957a7e51409a318/0_0_722_420/master/722.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=42f8ba4b45acb0839055bb1d54bae39e)

I do feel like buying Paypal at 192 was a serious mistake. :P If it goes solidly below 170 I am probably getting rid of it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2022, 08:25:02 AM
I'm back where I was at the start of '21.  All my '21 gains wiped out, including the money I made selling calls.

I guess it could be worse.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on January 31, 2022, 09:26:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2022, 04:37:25 AM
This thread is not quite as much fun when you're getting slaughtered.

(https://c.tenor.com/c980sTBcQ5cAAAAC/first-time-meme.gif)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2022, 09:51:05 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 31, 2022, 09:26:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2022, 04:37:25 AM
This thread is not quite as much fun when you're getting slaughtered.

(https://c.tenor.com/c980sTBcQ5cAAAAC/first-time-meme.gif)

:lol:

My stock market account is still fairly in the green although much diminished following my terribly timed foray into Paypal. My gambling account though is in shambles.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 31, 2022, 11:00:27 AM
I continue to be very happy I pay someone who knows what they are doing to invest my money and set up my financial affairs.  He is definitely not a flavour of the month type and very much a slow and steady wins the race type.  Helps me sleep much better knowing my investment goals are well on target.  :) 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on January 31, 2022, 11:01:46 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 31, 2022, 09:51:05 AM
My gambling account though is in shambles.

Yeah, my gambling account is a constant reminder I should never try to make investment decisions with my real money.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2022, 01:00:42 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 31, 2022, 09:26:41 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 21, 2022, 04:37:25 AM
This thread is not quite as much fun when you're getting slaughtered.

(https://c.tenor.com/c980sTBcQ5cAAAAC/first-time-meme.gif)

:lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2022, 04:41:04 PM
Nice bounce back today.  Is there some significant news driving the market?

Big money! Big money!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 31, 2022, 04:47:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2022, 04:41:04 PM
Nice bounce back today.  Is there some significant news driving the market?

Big money! Big money!

I think it's a bear market rally. Fucked up the shorts I was using my gambling account for, though. OUCH.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 01, 2022, 02:29:54 PM
Quote from: Caliga on September 16, 2011, 08:31:16 PM
Asians don't do anything for me.

I was browsing the archives and came across this gem. ^_^
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on February 01, 2022, 02:36:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 31, 2022, 04:41:04 PM
Nice bounce back today.  Is there some significant news driving the market?

Big money! Big money!

Prices are down! Buy! BUY! BUY!!!


At least that's my less then informed assumption.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 05, 2022, 09:22:27 PM
Google/Alphabet is going to split 20-1.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 10, 2022, 05:57:10 AM
It uses some assumptions of course but based on public data here is a comparison of how Cramer recommendations, trades by Congressmen, and by Pelosi specifically, could have done:
unusualwhales.com/etfs

Spoiler alert: too bad Congress is now talking of banning themselves from trading, it means Pelosi won't have to disclose what she is doing, robbing you from nice profits.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 10, 2022, 06:09:53 AM
Wasn't the thing with Pelosi more her husband?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 10, 2022, 06:19:16 AM
Quote from: Tyr on February 10, 2022, 06:09:53 AM
Wasn't the thing with Pelosi more her husband?

Not sure but let's not pretend the husband isn't working on info gotten from the wife.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 10, 2022, 08:50:30 AM
Transitionary inflation in the US now up to 7.5%
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2022, 01:21:37 PM
So as I mentioned a while back, I sold a Tesla call @810 and was feeling like an eejit when it rose to 1200.

Feeling less like an eejit now that Tesla is down to 794, and my put is in the money. (I sold the put Habbakku.)

Still getting slaughtered though.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on February 23, 2022, 01:22:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 23, 2022, 01:21:37 PM
Feeling less like an eejit now that Tesla is down to 794, and my put is in the money. (I sold the put Habbakku.)

:yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 07, 2022, 07:53:00 AM
Channeling Emperor Hirohito, I'm beginning to think that I may not have bought those Lloyds shares at the most opportune time  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 07, 2022, 09:39:27 AM
Hey Tricky, can you buy non Brit stocks?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 07, 2022, 09:44:45 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 07, 2022, 07:53:00 AMChanneling Emperor Hirohito, I'm beginning to think that I may not have bought those Lloyds shares at the most opportune time  :hmm:


Holy F. And it was starting to look like it's coming back, too.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on March 07, 2022, 10:12:10 AM
Yes, though I mainly get them through funds listed in London.


Edit : In reply to Yi earlier.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 09, 2022, 09:36:52 AM
I'm getting vibes the worst may be over and it's time to invest in stuff.

Non Russian gas companies or... Something?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on March 09, 2022, 09:43:33 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 09, 2022, 09:36:52 AMI'm getting vibes the worst may be over and it's time to invest in stuff.


(https://c.tenor.com/EMnR602pnHsAAAAM/haha-no-nope.gif)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on March 09, 2022, 10:07:24 AM
You should stop trying to time the market and just invest.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 28, 2022, 05:31:02 PM
Quote from: Josquius on March 09, 2022, 09:36:52 AMI'm getting vibes the worst may be over and it's time to invest in stuff.

Non Russian gas companies or... Something?

Buy tech names that have been beaten up.  Can you buy US ETFs?  Buy Cathie Woods' Ark Innovation fund (ARKK I think).  It has been absolutely hammered.

I think even Amazon is down 30% of its high. Meta/Facebook has been killed but I don't like Facebook.

I'm giving thought to selling puts on Palantir (down c. 75%) but Buffet says don't buy any company if you don't know how they make money.  Anyone know what it is they do?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on March 28, 2022, 05:48:25 PM
From what I'm reading, they're not making any money, so there is nothing to know.  You can go ahead and buy.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on March 28, 2022, 07:03:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on March 28, 2022, 05:48:25 PMFrom what I'm reading, they're not making any money, so there is nothing to know.  You can go ahead and buy.

:lmfao:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 29, 2022, 02:50:13 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 28, 2022, 05:31:02 PM
Quote from: Josquius on March 09, 2022, 09:36:52 AMI'm getting vibes the worst may be over and it's time to invest in stuff.

Non Russian gas companies or... Something?

Buy tech names that have been beaten up.  Can you buy US ETFs?  Buy Cathie Woods' Ark Innovation fund (ARKK I think).  It has been absolutely hammered.

I think even Amazon is down 30% of its high. Meta/Facebook has been killed but I don't like Facebook.

I'm giving thought to selling puts on Palantir (down c. 75%) but Buffet says don't buy any company if you don't know how they make money.  Anyone know what it is they do?

This etf doesn't exist for me.

Think I missed the boat on buying tech names. Amazon looks to be nearly back to where it was a few months ago.

As to palantir... Aren't they American Cambridge analytica?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2022, 10:42:53 PM
Buy Square. :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzEi7VCObJg

Many stock splits.

Amazon 20-1
Google 20-1
Apple 4-1
Tesla 5-1

I own 5 shares of Google, so after the split I'll be able to write a covered call.  :yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 09:56:57 AM
Elon has disclosed a 9.2% share of Twitter stock.  Stock price jumped 25%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on April 04, 2022, 11:16:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 09:56:57 AMElon has disclosed a 9.2% share of Twitter stock.  Stock price jumped 25%.

And this is why the market makes no sense.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 11:21:09 AM
How's that?  A stake that big can signal a takeover bid.  A takeover means a premium on the current price.  Makes perfect sense for the price to rise.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 04, 2022, 12:20:18 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 04, 2022, 11:16:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 09:56:57 AMElon has disclosed a 9.2% share of Twitter stock.  Stock price jumped 25%.

And this is why the market makes no sense.

Your first mistake is assuming the market ever makes sense.  The notion of rational buyers and sellers is an assumption economists need to make to create their models.  They cannot model actual behaviour and particularly irrational decisions. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on April 04, 2022, 12:30:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 11:21:09 AMHow's that?  A stake that big can signal a takeover bid.  A takeover means a premium on the current price.  Makes perfect sense for the price to rise.


I see your point that it would raise prices if a take over to occur, but I have no idea why.

How does that make Twitter more valuable? If tesla owns Twitter what are they going to do, put out some poorly assembled tweets?

Elon is just a weird phenomenon. Like when he made a vague tweet and a companies value went up 3000% 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 04, 2022, 12:32:56 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 04, 2022, 12:30:58 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 11:21:09 AMHow's that?  A stake that big can signal a takeover bid.  A takeover means a premium on the current price.  Makes perfect sense for the price to rise.


I see your point that it would raise prices if a take over to occur, but I have no idea why.

How does that make Twitter more valuable? If tesla owns Twitter what are they going to do, put out some poorly assembled tweets?

Elon is just a weird phenomenon. Like when he made a vague tweet and a companies value went up 3000% 


The more obvious conclusion is that people can convince themselves of anything.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on April 04, 2022, 12:40:12 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 04, 2022, 12:20:18 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 04, 2022, 11:16:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 09:56:57 AMElon has disclosed a 9.2% share of Twitter stock.  Stock price jumped 25%.

And this is why the market makes no sense.

Your first mistake is assuming the market ever makes sense.  The notion of rational buyers and sellers is an assumption economists need to make to create their models.  They cannot model actual behaviour and particularly irrational decisions. 

I'm obviously not an economist so the hell if I know. The stock market just seems like an old school rich people board game that somehow became a thing everyone wants in on. It's 50 times bigger now then it was in the 80s and a lot of transactions are run by algorithms.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 04, 2022, 01:01:29 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 04, 2022, 12:40:12 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 04, 2022, 12:20:18 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 04, 2022, 11:16:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 09:56:57 AMElon has disclosed a 9.2% share of Twitter stock.  Stock price jumped 25%.

And this is why the market makes no sense.

Your first mistake is assuming the market ever makes sense.  The notion of rational buyers and sellers is an assumption economists need to make to create their models.  They cannot model actual behaviour and particularly irrational decisions. 

I'm obviously not an economist so the hell if I know. The stock market just seems like an old school rich people board game that somehow became a thing everyone wants in on. It's 50 times bigger now then it was in the 80s and a lot of transactions are run by algorithms.

The thing you need to understand is guys like Yi who try to find rational reasons for why the shares of particular companies go up or down in value are just kidding themselves.  But they have to because they bought the line that the market is the amalgamation of all the decisions of rational decision makers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 01:06:46 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 04, 2022, 12:30:58 PMI see your point that it would raise prices if a take over to occur, but I have no idea why.

How does that make Twitter more valuable? If tesla owns Twitter what are they going to do, put out some poorly assembled tweets?

Elon is just a weird phenomenon. Like when he made a vague tweet and a companies value went up 3000% 


First the party taking over *has to* pay a premium, else the current shareholders won't want to give up their shares.

Second, they *can* pay a premium because they believe they can increase profits, by cutting costs, or "creating synergies" with their existing company, or stripping out the assets and selling off the carcass.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 01:22:17 PM
Quote from: HVC on April 04, 2022, 12:40:12 PMI'm obviously not an economist so the hell if I know. The stock market just seems like an old school rich people board game that somehow became a thing everyone wants in on. It's 50 times bigger now then it was in the 80s and a lot of transactions are run by algorithms.

It became a thing because brokerage fees got a lot cheaper, online brokerages made trading easy peasy, and they stopped quoting prices in eighths of a dollar.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 05, 2022, 11:26:37 AM
So what do you reckon?

Will Trump get his Twitter account back now that Elon Musk is on the board, and the largest shareholder of Twitter?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 05, 2022, 11:34:30 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2022, 11:21:09 AMHow's that?  A stake that big can signal a takeover bid.  A takeover means a premium on the current price.  Makes perfect sense for the price to rise.

8-K filed today: "For so long as Mr. Musk is serving on the Board and for 90 days thereafter, Mr. Musk will not, either alone or as a member of a group, become the beneficial owner of more than 14.9% of the Company's common stock outstanding at such time, including for these purposes economic exposure through derivative securities, swaps, or hedging transactions."
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 05, 2022, 11:36:31 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 05, 2022, 11:26:37 AMSo what do you reckon?

Will Trump get his Twitter account back now that Elon Musk is on the board, and the largest shareholder of Twitter?

I knew Musk was a dick but is he a trumpy?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 05, 2022, 11:50:29 AM
Quote from: Josquius on April 05, 2022, 11:36:31 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 05, 2022, 11:26:37 AMSo what do you reckon?

Will Trump get his Twitter account back now that Elon Musk is on the board, and the largest shareholder of Twitter?

I knew Musk was a dick but is he a trumpy?

He tweeted pro-convoy stuff, at least. And Trump and Musk are social peers, as well. I don't think it's a given, but neither is it impossible... which is why I ask.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on April 05, 2022, 01:15:31 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 05, 2022, 11:26:37 AMSo what do you reckon?

Will Trump get his Twitter account back now that Elon Musk is on the board, and the largest shareholder of Twitter?

Good way to potentially start a mass exodus.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 05, 2022, 03:26:52 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 05, 2022, 11:26:37 AMSo what do you reckon?

Will Trump get his Twitter account back now that Elon Musk is on the board, and the largest shareholder of Twitter?

Musk's beefs so far have been with the SEC and California, for locking down his factory.  I've personally never caught a whiff of Trumpishness from him.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 05, 2022, 06:30:05 PM
That being said, I sure hope Elon doesn't do anything boneheaded at Twitter that kills the Tesla brand.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 05, 2022, 06:53:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 05, 2022, 03:26:52 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 05, 2022, 11:26:37 AMSo what do you reckon?

Will Trump get his Twitter account back now that Elon Musk is on the board, and the largest shareholder of Twitter?

Musk's beefs so far have been with the SEC and California, for locking down his factory.  I've personally never caught a whiff of Trumpishness from him.

He tweeted in support of the "freedom" convoy in Canada, which is firmly across the line as far as I'm concerned.

And being a billionaire tech bro, I wouldn't be surprised to see him embrace free speech absolutism when it doesn't affect him personally. But that's just a hunch on my side.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on April 05, 2022, 06:58:10 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 05, 2022, 06:30:05 PMThat being said, I sure hope Elon doesn't do anything boneheaded at Twitter that kills the Tesla brand.

He called a rescuer a pedophile, with no repercussions. I think the brand is fine :lol:

I just wish tesla concentrate more on the power walls and solar.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 05, 2022, 07:04:37 PM
A stock ownership sidebar, or as Raz would say: question.

What's the dodgiest stock you own, or would be wiling to own?  In terms of climate, or governance, employee treatment or whatever.

I own Uber and I own Alerian Master Limited Partnership  ETF, a US oil pipeline ETF.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 05, 2022, 07:11:20 PM
I've no idea - as I just have savings in funds. But I have recently moved out of purely socially responsible funds - my theory was given that I was volubly in favour of sending weapons to Ukraine and re-arming Europe I should probably not be so pious about the companies I'd be willing to have investments in.

Separately I have just re-claimed some very old occupational pension from ages ago (I'd not even really realised I had it) - I've put that into Sharia funds as I'm still young and apparently they're generally the best for growth (all equity, no debt).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 05, 2022, 07:59:51 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 05, 2022, 07:11:20 PMI've put that into Sharia funds as I'm still young and apparently they're generally the best for growth (all equity, no debt).

Don't know if it's true that no debt means high growth.  That's pretty much the entire reason for debt, to finance expansion.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2022, 10:51:25 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuayDllNbbE

Here's another one for you Hillary.  Berkshire-Hathaway discloses 11.4% share of Hewlitt-Packard, price rises 12%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 07, 2022, 11:03:23 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 05, 2022, 07:59:51 PMDon't know if it's true that no debt means high growth.  That's pretty much the entire reason for debt, to finance expansion.
As a very basic investor in funds it does though. You're just getting equity - no bonds etc to ballast the portfolio.

My understanding is there's been a study done on various funds in the UK open to the public and all the ones with the best returns are Sharia compliant for that reason.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2022, 11:13:24 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 07, 2022, 11:03:23 AMAs a very basic investor in funds it does though. You're just getting equity - no bonds etc to ballast the portfolio.

My understanding is there's been a study done on various funds in the UK open to the public and all the ones with the best returns are Sharia compliant for that reason.

Ah, I misunderstood.  I thought you meant the fund held companies that had no debt on their balance sheets.  I.e. sharia compliant companies, not funds.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 07, 2022, 11:17:37 AM
They're vetted by a Sharia committee to ensure the investment is Sharia compliant - eg no alcohol, gambling companies etc.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 07, 2022, 11:22:29 AM
I had forgotten what an old Catholic church lady you are.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 07, 2022, 11:34:35 AM
To be honest that stuff is why I only had ESG/socially responsible funds but I've gone back on that.

It's just a nice coincidence that funds with the best return are also more virtuous :goodboy:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 11, 2022, 01:18:36 PM
Huh.  Now I own 25 shares of Warner Bros Discovery after AT&T spun it off.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 14, 2022, 06:34:51 AM
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-offers-to-buy-twitter-for-4139-bn-104842104.html

Elon Musk has made an offer to buy Twitter with a bid that values the company at $43.4bn.


Just what is Elon up to 🤔
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 14, 2022, 06:36:19 AM
Quote from: Josquius on April 14, 2022, 06:34:51 AMhttps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-offers-to-buy-twitter-for-4139-bn-104842104.html

Elon Musk has made an offer to buy Twitter with a bid that values the company at $43.4bn.


Just what is Elon up to 🤔

It's in the Musk thread already, and he is bluffing to pump and dump the 9% share he has already bought and has no intention to keep.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 20, 2022, 01:57:24 PM
Anyone buying Netflix?  37% off, limited time only!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 20, 2022, 05:45:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 20, 2022, 01:57:24 PMAnyone buying Netflix?  37% off, limited time only!
You think?
I'm really not confident in netflix's future. It may have first mover advantage and big brand recognition but with the way the market is going...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 20, 2022, 06:28:29 PM
I'm not buying Netflix.  Low or no margin commodity business, same as the music streamers.  I figure Disney is the only one of the streamers that has stickiness because of the Star Wars geek community.

I feel similarly about Google, which I own.  People will be using google for search and watching youtube for the next 2,000 years.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 20, 2022, 06:53:59 PM
Is it really commodity business?  Commodity business sounds like an old-school kind of business, as opposed to a network-effect winner-takes-all snowball kind of business.  Netflix strikes me as the latter kind of business:  we're all collectively worse off with having two streaming services competing with each other, because we have two infrastructures to support, and each one would be diminished due to exclusive content being present on only one or the other.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 20, 2022, 09:42:32 PM
What infrastructure is there apart from the internet? 

Commodity in the sense that, with the aforementioned Star Wars franchise exception, there is no streamer that consistently provides must see programming. 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 21, 2022, 02:44:23 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 20, 2022, 06:53:59 PMIs it really commodity business?  Commodity business sounds like an old-school kind of business, as opposed to a network-effect winner-takes-all snowball kind of business.  Netflix strikes me as the latter kind of business:  we're all collectively worse off with having two streaming services competing with each other, because we have two infrastructures to support, and each one would be diminished due to exclusive content being present on only one or the other.

Yes. Yes we are.
But are the companies selling content worse off?

It is tempting to draw a parallel to satellite TV where once upon a time there would be multiple competitors. But the barrier to entry there was huge with massive infrastructure requirements.
With streaming... Competition is far easier and a lot less reliant on actual infrastructure (only servers really).
I do worry where streaming is headed. It seems unlikely to be great for consumers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Threviel on April 21, 2022, 02:50:14 AM
The streaming market is obviously ripe for consolidation and I think HBO and Netflix are some of the smaller fish around to be eaten by Disney or Apple or some other giant.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 08:15:42 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 20, 2022, 09:42:32 PMWhat infrastructure is there apart from the internet? 

Commodity in the sense that, with the aforementioned Star Wars franchise exception, there is no streamer that consistently provides must see programming. 
The overhead required to build and sustain membership.  Software on these site is not just of the write once and forget variety, you have to make sure that your IT is always up to scratch to ensure smooth experience, you have to advertise to attract new subs, and so on.  Most of these expenses are duplicated or even cannibalistic between the different providers.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 21, 2022, 11:21:26 AM
Quote from: Threviel on April 21, 2022, 02:50:14 AMThe streaming market is obviously ripe for consolidation and I think HBO and Netflix are some of the smaller fish around to be eaten by Disney or Apple or some other giant.

Netflix does not have a significantly smaller market capitalization than Disney - and all it does is streaming.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 11:36:39 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 08:15:42 AMThe overhead required to build and sustain membership.  Software on these site is not just of the write once and forget variety, you have to make sure that your IT is always up to scratch to ensure smooth experience, you have to advertise to attract new subs, and so on.  Most of these expenses are duplicated or even cannibalistic between the different providers.

Marketing costs are not infrastructure.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 03:08:01 PM
It's still a fixed cost, it's an investment that's required to build the network so that you'll profit from the effect.

In other streaming news, CNN+ folded just one month after launching.  :lol: I'm sure there was a cheaper way to get rid of Chris Wallace.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 21, 2022, 03:12:57 PM
Quote from: Josquius on April 21, 2022, 02:44:23 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 20, 2022, 06:53:59 PMIs it really commodity business?  Commodity business sounds like an old-school kind of business, as opposed to a network-effect winner-takes-all snowball kind of business.  Netflix strikes me as the latter kind of business:  we're all collectively worse off with having two streaming services competing with each other, because we have two infrastructures to support, and each one would be diminished due to exclusive content being present on only one or the other.

Yes. Yes we are.
But are the companies selling content worse off?

It is tempting to draw a parallel to satellite TV where once upon a time there would be multiple competitors. But the barrier to entry there was huge with massive infrastructure requirements.
With streaming... Competition is far easier and a lot less reliant on actual infrastructure (only servers really).
I do worry where streaming is headed. It seems unlikely to be great for consumers.

The barrier to entry is the cost of content.

Netflix got started in an era where the content owners didn't really value the streaming rights, so Netflix was able to get them cheap and got an early start on the streaming wars.  But the cost of content has gotten more and more expensive.  That's why Netflix has been investing so much on its own content, and why the competitors are largely from companies that already own huge libraries of content (plus Amazon, which can afford to just throw gobs of money at content).
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 03:16:35 PM
What made Netflix far less useful to me over the years was the fact that the space became so fragmented.  If there are five old shows I would be interested in watching, I'd probably need to have 3-4 different streaming services.  Some time ago Netflix felt like the Google of streaming content, a central repository that has almost everything, now it feels like it just has some scraps.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 21, 2022, 03:20:20 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 03:16:35 PMWhat made Netflix far less useful to me over the years was the fact that the space became so fragmented.  If there are five old shows I would be interested in watching, I'd probably need to have 3-4 different streaming services.  Some time ago Netflix felt like the Google of streaming content, now it feels like it just has some scraps.

Without a doubt Netflix has less content on it - or at least less of the "classic" old movies and shows I might want to watch.

I think my household has 4 streaming services right now: Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime, and Crave (which mostly has HBO/Warner content), which definitely feels like too much.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on April 21, 2022, 03:38:19 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 03:08:01 PMIt's still a fixed cost, it's an investment that's required to build the network so that you'll profit from the effect.

In other streaming news, CNN+ folded just one month after launching.  :lol: I'm sure there was a cheaper way to get rid of Chris Wallace.

From Variety it looks like bosses at launch thought it was doing well but new leadership axed it as it didn't like plan to have CNN+ as separate offer.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 21, 2022, 03:41:02 PM
Quote from: garbon on April 21, 2022, 03:38:19 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 03:08:01 PMIt's still a fixed cost, it's an investment that's required to build the network so that you'll profit from the effect.

In other streaming news, CNN+ folded just one month after launching.  :lol: I'm sure there was a cheaper way to get rid of Chris Wallace.

From Variety it looks like bosses at launch thought it was doing well but new leadership axed it as it didn't like plan to have CNN+ as separate offer.

Yeah - looks like it had very little to do with CNN+ itself, and more the fact that new corporate masters were coming into place just as it launched.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:07:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 03:08:01 PMIt's still a fixed cost, it's an investment that's required to build the network so that you'll profit from the effect.

It's a variable cost.  You don't build a gigantic marketing supertanker that costs the same whether you market to one person or a billion, you spend incremental dollars to market to each person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQZm89ELZbU

I found Josh's arguments persuasive and am now considering buying Netflix.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:21:38 PM
So I am following Hab's advice from facebook and waiting for May 1st for the new I series US savings bonds. Supposed to get 9%+ rate on on them. I plan on buying them on May Day while wearing a top hat and monocle.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 08:26:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:07:42 PMIt's a variable cost.  You don't build a gigantic marketing supertanker that costs the same whether you market to one person or a billion, you spend incremental dollars to market to each person.
I think it's a fixed cost from the point of view of needing to create a network of a certain size in order for your business model to be viable.  A lot of startups spend absurd amounts of their venture capital acquiring customers, it can be many times over the revenue from the customer. 

Are they doing it because they think it's a viable business model to spend 300% of customer revenue on customer acquisition?  Probably not, I think they realize that it's hard to be profitable when your variable expense is more than 100% of your revenue.  The reason they're doing that is because they need to get the critical mass, before their business model starts generating a momentum of their own.  Until they get that critical mass, it doesn't make sense to relate their customer acquisition costs to their revenue.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:42:08 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:21:38 PMSo I am following Hab's advice from facebook and waiting for May 1st for the new I series US savings bonds. Supposed to get 9%+ rate on on them. I plan on buying them on May Day while wearing a top hat and monocle.

No shit? :o
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:48:48 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:42:08 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:21:38 PMSo I am following Hab's advice from facebook and waiting for May 1st for the new I series US savings bonds. Supposed to get 9%+ rate on on them. I plan on buying them on May Day while wearing a top hat and monocle.

No shit? :o

I mean that is what he said they would be at next month. Right now they are at 7.12%

If true I am buying the $10,000 dollar max.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:51:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:48:48 PMI mean that is what he said they would be at next month. Right now they are at 7.12%

Well shit.  How can Treasury bonds be at 3ish when savings bonds are at 7?  Savings bonds have always been the poor cousin of the family.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 21, 2022, 08:52:04 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 08:26:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:07:42 PMIt's a variable cost.  You don't build a gigantic marketing supertanker that costs the same whether you market to one person or a billion, you spend incremental dollars to market to each person.
I think it's a fixed cost from the point of view of needing to create a network of a certain size in order for your business model to be viable.  A lot of startups spend absurd amounts of their venture capital acquiring customers, it can be many times over the revenue from the customer. 

Are they doing it because they think it's a viable business model to spend 300% of customer revenue on customer acquisition?  Probably not, I think they realize that it's hard to be profitable when your variable expense is more than 100% of your revenue.  The reason they're doing that is because they need to get the critical mass, before their business model starts generating a momentum of their own.  Until they get that critical mass, it doesn't make sense to relate their customer acquisition costs to their revenue.

This makes sense if you think there's a significant network effect and you want to lock in your first mover advantage. Otherwise, less so... except, of course, if customer numbers is part of your sales pitch for acqusition/ IPO.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:53:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:51:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:48:48 PMI mean that is what he said they would be at next month. Right now they are at 7.12%

Well shit.  How can Treasury bonds be at 3ish when savings bonds are at 7?  Savings bonds have always been the poor cousin of the family.

The way he explained it they are indexed to the inflation rate by some formula. I don't anticipate this current inflation to last long, at least not 30 years long, so it seems insane not to jump on it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 21, 2022, 08:56:11 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:21:38 PMSo I am following Hab's advice from facebook and waiting for May 1st for the new I series US savings bonds. Supposed to get 9%+ rate on on them. I plan on buying them on May Day while wearing a top hat and monocle.

If you can afford to do so and already have your account set up, there's no reason not to buy them now. Then you're effectively locking in the 7.12 + estimated 9.6%. Remember, that 9.6% is only guaranteed to last the six months. Hypothetically, the CPI crashes and you might only get 5% for the year!  :lol:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:59:19 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 21, 2022, 08:56:11 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:21:38 PMSo I am following Hab's advice from facebook and waiting for May 1st for the new I series US savings bonds. Supposed to get 9%+ rate on on them. I plan on buying them on May Day while wearing a top hat and monocle.

If you can afford to do so and already have your account set up, there's no reason not to buy them now. Then you're effectively locking in the 7.12 + estimated 9.6%. Remember, that 9.6% is only guaranteed to last the six months. Hypothetically, the CPI crashes and you might only get 5% for the year!  :lol:

Safest and easiest money ever. Thanks for alerting me to this situation :mono:

So really? Buy them now and not wait until May 1st? Well alright then. I will go get my top hat and monocle.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 21, 2022, 09:00:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:51:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:48:48 PMI mean that is what he said they would be at next month. Right now they are at 7.12%

Well shit.  How can Treasury bonds be at 3ish when savings bonds are at 7?  Savings bonds have always been the poor cousin of the family.

I Series bonds are designed to be good wards against inflation. They have their rates built off two components--a fixed rate (0% at the moment, lol), and a CPI-based component. At the moment, the CPI component--due to high inflation--is 7.12%, as Valmy intimated. Next month, they go up to an estimated 9.6%.

It's a ridiculously good opportunity if you're sitting on spare cash or looking for a place to diversify for ~1 year.

There are a few downsides, however. Foremost is the purchase cap--$10,000 of electronic bonds and an additional $5,000 for paper per Social Security number. In addition, you have to register for the charmingly Geocities-era Treasury website which may or may not send you down a bit of a rabbit hole of having to go to a local financial institution to get them to validate you.

Next is that the rates are only fixed in six-month increments, so hypothetically the CPI could crash over the next several months and the rate will go down with it. Not the worst thing, except...

Selling any time before 1 year is forbidden. Selling between 1-5 years incurs a 1-quarter coupon penalty, so if you sell right at the 1 year mark, you're "only" getting 3 quarters of interest. Not the worst thing if the rate is a constant 9.6% and then crashes right after...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 09:02:58 PM
Thanks Seppukku
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 09:48:44 PM
Ooof you are right the registration method is remarkably obtuse.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Grey Fox on April 21, 2022, 09:55:36 PM
That's a good opportunity. Hopefully one of my funds will buy some US bonds, if that is somehow allowed.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 10:22:38 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on April 21, 2022, 09:55:36 PMThat's a good opportunity. Hopefully one of my funds will buy some US bonds, if that is somehow allowed.

Only individuals can buy savings bonds.  That's why they ask for a social.  No institutional buyers allowed.

AFAIK
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 23, 2022, 02:19:31 PM
Ubisoft

https://kotaku.com/ubisoft-acquisition-buyout-assassin-s-creed-far-cry-gho-1848831498

🤔

Strange site to see this on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2022, 09:01:58 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:07:42 PMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQZm89ELZbU

I found Josh's arguments persuasive and am now considering buying Netflix.  :ph34r:

Filled!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 25, 2022, 10:28:58 AM
I hope none of you had major positions on stocks traded on the Shanghai exchange. Looks like a roughly 40-50% drop across the board.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2022, 10:43:51 AM
I have Tencent ADRs but they only fell 1.57%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 25, 2022, 10:47:38 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 25, 2022, 10:28:58 AMI hope none of you had major positions on stocks traded on the Shanghai exchange. Looks like a roughly 40-50% drop across the board.

I don't buy Chinese stocks.  :smarty:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 25, 2022, 10:55:34 AM
If Musk - free speech enthusiast that he is - buys Twitter, what do you reckon the odds are he'll rescind Trump's ban?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on April 25, 2022, 10:55:41 AM
Chinese stock markets don't have circuit breakers?  :huh:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2022, 11:10:27 AM
Quote from: Jacob on April 25, 2022, 10:55:34 AMIf Musk - free speech enthusiast that he is - buys Twitter, what do you reckon the odds are he'll rescind Trump's ban?

25%
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 25, 2022, 11:12:28 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 25, 2022, 10:55:41 AMChinese stock markets don't have circuit breakers?  :huh:

I assume Jake means 4-5%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 25, 2022, 11:15:58 AM
That makes sense.  Shanghai Composite Index is down 5%
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 25, 2022, 11:23:26 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 25, 2022, 11:12:28 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 25, 2022, 10:55:41 AMChinese stock markets don't have circuit breakers?  :huh:

I assume Jake means 4-5%.

Yeah... I was caught up in too many children shenanigans + "what did your friend say" translation on the fly :Embarrass:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 25, 2022, 12:50:44 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 25, 2022, 10:55:34 AMIf Musk - free speech enthusiast that he is - buys Twitter, what do you reckon the odds are he'll rescind Trump's ban?
100%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 25, 2022, 01:17:40 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 25, 2022, 12:50:44 PM
Quote from: Jacob on April 25, 2022, 10:55:34 AMIf Musk - free speech enthusiast that he is - buys Twitter, what do you reckon the odds are he'll rescind Trump's ban?
100%.

I dunno - Musk is Trump-adjacent at times, but not a Trumpist.  I give it 50/50.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 25, 2022, 01:40:02 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 25, 2022, 01:17:40 PMI dunno - Musk is Trump-adjacent at times, but not a Trumpist.  I give it 50/50.
I don't think it's necessarily because he's Trumpy. I think it's because he's talked a lot about free speech on Twitter and I can't think of a bigger, easier way to make a splash on that point.

An adjustment to their T&Cs or moderation policy won't really say much.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 25, 2022, 02:54:45 PM
Knowing how shallow and vain Trump is, Musk might be gambling on being the one holding the reigns of twitter being worth a lot in government kickbacks et al for his other businesses should trump win again?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on April 25, 2022, 03:54:55 PM
Quote from: Josquius on April 25, 2022, 02:54:45 PMKnowing how shallow and vain Trump is, Musk might be gambling on being the one holding the reigns of twitter being worth a lot in government kickbacks et al for his other businesses should trump win again?

He runs a lot of very politically sensitive businesses. It does make a lot of sense for him to own a major media company.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 26, 2022, 06:47:09 PM
Ouch.  I'm getting stomped on.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Syt on April 27, 2022, 02:16:18 AM
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/26/1094870412/tesla-shares-sink-twitter-elon-musk?t=1651043498949

QuoteTesla shares sink, wipe out over $125 billion in value, as Musk scores Twitter deal

Taking over Twitter may be good for Elon Musk, but it hasn't been good for Tesla's shares.

One day after Twitter announced it had accepted Musk's $44 billion takeover bid, Tesla shares sank 12.2%, wiping out more than $125 billion off the electric vehicle maker's market value.

The falls come as Wall Street fretted about how the deal could impact the electric vehicle maker and its stock price.

When Musk announced he had secured the money to finance the transaction, he said he would cover $21 billion himself, with banks helping finance the other half.

What remains unclear is how he will come up with that money — whether he will sell some of the Tesla shares he owns, borrow against them, bring in additional investors, or all three.

There is also growing concern about whether owning Twitter would bring him into conflict over free speech with the government in China, a key market for Tesla where the auto maker also has significant production.

On top of that, there is the risk Musk could become distracted by his latest acquisition.

Musk is the CEO of Tesla and Space-X and is involved with other business ventures such as Neuralink, which develops brain implant technology, as well as The Boring Company, which makes tunnels.

Telsa had reported record earnings

Musk, who is the world's richest man, has a net worth of $257 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index But two-thirds of his wealth is in Telsa stock.

If Musk does offload some of those holdings, it could drive Tesla's share price down further. This is something the company warned investors about in its latest annual report, filed in February with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

"If Elon Musk were forced to sell shares of our common stock that he has pledged to secure certain personal loan obligations, such shares could cause our stock price to decline," the company wrote.

It also could result in a hefty tax bill for Musk himself, who sold billions of dollars worth of Tesla shares last year. sending them sharply lower, as he engaged in heated back-and-forth with Democratic lawmakers about how billionaires should be taxed.

Last week, Tesla reported record earnings for the first quarter of 2022, despite high prices and supply-chain challenges. The company also presented a production forecast that impressed Wall Street.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 27, 2022, 02:51:19 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 26, 2022, 06:47:09 PMOuch.  I'm getting stomped on.

Yeah.


I wonder if Twitter owners accepted Musk's offer because they realised their share price wouldn't reach that high for quite, quite a while, if ever.  :nelson: at Musk for making a terrible deal.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 27, 2022, 05:53:42 PM
Quote from: Syt on April 27, 2022, 02:16:18 AMhttps://www.npr.org/2022/04/26/1094870412/tesla-shares-sink-twitter-elon-musk?t=1651043498949

QuoteTesla shares sink, wipe out over $125 billion in value, as Musk scores Twitter deal

Taking over Twitter may be good for Elon Musk, but it hasn't been good for Tesla's shares.

One day after Twitter announced it had accepted Musk's $44 billion takeover bid, Tesla shares sank 12.2%, wiping out more than $125 billion off the electric vehicle maker's market value.

The falls come as Wall Street fretted about how the deal could impact the electric vehicle maker and its stock price.

When Musk announced he had secured the money to finance the transaction, he said he would cover $21 billion himself, with banks helping finance the other half.

What remains unclear is how he will come up with that money — whether he will sell some of the Tesla shares he owns, borrow against them, bring in additional investors, or all three.

There is also growing concern about whether owning Twitter would bring him into conflict over free speech with the government in China, a key market for Tesla where the auto maker also has significant production.

On top of that, there is the risk Musk could become distracted by his latest acquisition.

Musk is the CEO of Tesla and Space-X and is involved with other business ventures such as Neuralink, which develops brain implant technology, as well as The Boring Company, which makes tunnels.

Telsa had reported record earnings

Musk, who is the world's richest man, has a net worth of $257 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index But two-thirds of his wealth is in Telsa stock.

If Musk does offload some of those holdings, it could drive Tesla's share price down further. This is something the company warned investors about in its latest annual report, filed in February with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

"If Elon Musk were forced to sell shares of our common stock that he has pledged to secure certain personal loan obligations, such shares could cause our stock price to decline," the company wrote.

It also could result in a hefty tax bill for Musk himself, who sold billions of dollars worth of Tesla shares last year. sending them sharply lower, as he engaged in heated back-and-forth with Democratic lawmakers about how billionaires should be taxed.

Last week, Tesla reported record earnings for the first quarter of 2022, despite high prices and supply-chain challenges. The company also presented a production forecast that impressed Wall Street.


An objective good?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 02, 2022, 08:07:01 PM
Anyone buying the dip yet?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on May 02, 2022, 08:16:35 PM
Not in any big way. Steady, monthly contributions for me.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on May 07, 2022, 12:58:05 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 02, 2022, 08:07:01 PMAnyone buying the dip yet?
the dip? The dip of the dip? The dippity dip? The only way is down...no bottom in sight...
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2022, 03:40:31 PM
Rally on?  It's been a good week.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on July 22, 2022, 10:04:01 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 21, 2022, 03:40:31 PMRally on?  It's been a good week.

https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bear-market-rally?r=1g7lhb&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on August 05, 2022, 05:52:05 AM
I'm afraid to look at my account.

But avast merger is back on and with it the price jumped a tonne. I shall make a fair bit here.  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on August 05, 2022, 07:52:20 AM
A macro guy who is pretty good convinced me to put some money via ETF into 20+ years US Treasury bonds on account of market pricing in a recession and rate drops. Took me a while to find a Europe-based ETF doing that, but I have just now sold it all because the giant payroll number tells me there won't be any Fed pivot anytime soon.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: alfred russel on August 05, 2022, 08:13:54 AM
In a great personal tragedy, the government issued a letter yesterday revoking the authorization of the political gambling site I've fallen in love with to continue operating.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on August 05, 2022, 12:19:06 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on August 05, 2022, 08:13:54 AMIn a great personal tragedy, the government issued a letter yesterday revoking the authorization of the political gambling site I've fallen in love with to continue operating.

:console:

That kinda sucks. You obviously enjoyed that site tremendously.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 25, 2022, 10:42:00 AM
Tesla split again, 3 for 1 this time.

Etrade brain farted and is showing I have a a daily gain of $162K on the call option I sold.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on September 18, 2022, 09:26:36 AM
Ongoing confirmation why having my money managed by someone who knows what they are doing is the obvious right choice-my (their conservative largely dividend producing) investments are well ahead of the market.

My play money investments where I make what I think are intelligent bets, down so far it's embarrassing.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 04, 2022, 08:32:24 PM
I'm seeing more and more people calling a bottom on CNBC.  Most but not all.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on October 04, 2022, 09:10:31 PM
:yeah:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on October 05, 2022, 01:06:31 AM
June was not the bottom. Capitulation hasn't happened yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on October 09, 2022, 08:06:07 PM
I'm watching Eat the Rich, Netflix's docu on Gamestop.

Plenty of people are saying things that make me want to punch them, like "short sellers made the price drop."

Keith Gill aka Roaring Kitty aka Deep Fucking Value gets beat up as a market manipulator more than I remember he did the first time around.

Specifically, they're talking now about how Robinhood uses their interface to fuck with people and get them to trade more.  So Squeeze as a bona fide professional in this very field, can you tell me some ways in which interfaces do this?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on October 10, 2022, 03:47:31 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 09, 2022, 08:06:07 PMI'm watching Eat the Rich, Netflix's docu on Gamestop.

Plenty of people are saying things that make me want to punch them, like "short sellers made the price drop."

Keith Gill aka Roaring Kitty aka Deep Fucking Value gets beat up as a market manipulator more than I remember he did the first time around.

Specifically, they're talking now about how Robinhood uses their interface to fuck with people and get them to trade more.  So Squeeze as a bona fide professional in this very field, can you tell me some ways in which interfaces do this?

I've never used Robin Hood.
But I do remember reading a while ago how they use gamification tricks like happy little animations and dings when you buy, making the whole process of spending thousands in seconds seem like a game rather than the pretty serious thing it is.
I think RH even lets you do options with the same ease?

At a quick google a bunch of writeups out there facing those outside the field.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/dark-patterns-regulators-eye-tech-tricks-hurt-consumers-rcna4365
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on October 13, 2022, 01:54:52 AM
I think the SEC needs to investigate EA and the bloody gaming market for their loot box BS. At least children can't get a RobinHood account.

Also, I want to make a short ETF of Tom Lee's portfolio.

And another one of companies with fad goofy names ending in "ly".

"Grammarly"---The name itself is a grammatical error.  :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2022, 04:04:46 PM
Thinking about buying.  Nvidia or AMD?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on November 14, 2022, 08:17:00 PM
Nvidea just lost a major manufacturer and their new cards have the tendency to catch on fire. I'd avoid them. Intel is trying to re-enter  the GPU market, if you want to invest in that, though with the continuing death of crypto none of them are a great bet. Unless it's a joke I don't get, then never mind :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2022, 08:38:47 PM
Not a joke.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on November 15, 2022, 04:56:21 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2022, 04:04:46 PMThinking about buying.  Nvidia or AMD?

Not yet.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 16, 2022, 05:47:39 PM
I ended up selling an Amazon put, which is a nice no decision type decision.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on December 13, 2022, 12:58:30 PM
Amd thoughts?

Was flying high but along with all else in a slump right now. Forecasts still have it at up to double current rates.
Thinking to get more of it whilst it's low sometime soon.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on December 13, 2022, 01:09:44 PM
I wouldn't buy any tech stocks before, say, middle of next year. It seems we are done with the "omg interest rate hikes" dumps, but the "omg it really is recession" dump is yet to come. And then there is the Fed's QT that shall continue to remove easy liquidity from the market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 13, 2022, 05:52:20 PM
Buy every dip.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: viper37 on December 13, 2022, 08:55:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2022, 04:04:46 PMThinking about buying.  Nvidia or AMD?

AMD's business is CPU and GPU.

They offer video cards for professionals and gamers, but they don't have a significant market share (around 10%, I think).   Their consumer CPUs are doing better with an average of 30-35% market share in the last two years.  Their server CPU market share is overing over 15% and growing.

However, that's pretty much all they do.


Nvidia's core business is no longer its GPU, they make good products and they are creaming the market, but where they make their money is their deep learning and AI business solutions.

AMD can offer a steady but small stock growth from it's consumer products, but I think Nvidia is poised to generate much more money over the long term.  No matter how bad they screw their consumers, people are always asking for more, so it does not seem to really matter.  Their sales are unaffected by their overpriced GPUs, their stock did not take a hit from their GPUs catching fire (they succesffully blamed it on their consumers misconnecting it; kinda curious it never happened with previous cards and other brands, as if consumers just suddenly became stupid - but it's another matter); they're like that guy getting pissed on his face on stage by a rock singer and asking for more.

I think overall AMD's stock will offer a small steady growth, but Nvidia is poised to give you better yieild due to their core AI/Deep learning business.

Intel is mostly a dividend stock.  Nothing truly revolutionary coming out of them, just steady improvements to their products.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 13, 2022, 11:01:12 PM
Thanks veep.  Nvidia it is when the opportunity presents.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 23, 2023, 05:10:25 PM
US market has been pretty perky so far this year.  How are youse guys doing?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2023, 01:09:59 AM
How is Mono? Is he ok? Is he still alive?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2023, 01:46:05 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2023, 01:09:59 AMHow is Mono? Is he ok? Is he still alive?

Someone said he's on Facebook.

I wish someone would ask him to come back.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on January 24, 2023, 02:03:45 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2023, 01:46:05 AM
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on January 24, 2023, 01:09:59 AMHow is Mono? Is he ok? Is he still alive?

Someone said he's on Facebook.
What does that mean?  He's in a vegetative state? :unsure:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2023, 09:54:46 AM
Just pulled the trigger on Nvidia veep.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 24, 2023, 11:41:13 AM
I am keeping an eye on Raytheon and/or a healthcare ETF to buy into, but definitely not overvalued tech stocks. I don't think free institutional gambling money is coming back anytime soon to pump those.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 24, 2023, 07:31:17 PM
I own the healthcare ETF VHT.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on January 25, 2023, 03:36:26 AM
Have you got out of Tesla yet, Yi?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 25, 2023, 01:04:13 PM
Negatory.  I'm certainly not going to unload during a trough.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on February 08, 2023, 09:23:06 AM
Is it safe to look again?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on February 08, 2023, 09:25:33 AM
Quote from: Josquius on February 08, 2023, 09:23:06 AMIs it safe to look again?

US markets have been in total FOMO mode for close to a month now, and just now seem to be returning to kangaroo-market mode.  It is probably too late.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 08, 2023, 05:01:55 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 08, 2023, 09:25:33 AMUS markets have been in total FOMO mode for close to a month now, and just now seem to be returning to kangaroo-market mode.  It is probably too late.

Oddly enough it hasn't been driven by retail investors, accordiing to a CNBC clip I saw a few days ago.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2023, 09:58:44 PM
To respond to Squeeze's question, I've seen a few predictions of apocalpyse, a few saying liftoff, and a bunch saying bumpy for another year.  If you have funds parked waiting to deploy, I might suggest waiting for another dip.

Or better yet sell short dated puts against it the cash.  Earn 12% a year and automatically buy a dip.  :)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2023, 10:00:30 PM
And veep, you made me 20% already.  :cheers:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 18, 2023, 12:45:41 AM
Retail money has been pouring in to equities. 

Run away, run away!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on April 16, 2023, 02:50:32 PM
Bumping this for Hamilcar.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 17, 2023, 01:11:38 PM
I'm all in on Microsoft. Considering a Google short.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2023, 05:54:43 PM
I'm long Google and happy with it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 17, 2023, 11:55:55 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 17, 2023, 01:11:38 PMI'm all in on Microsoft. Considering a Google short.

Whats M$ got brewing?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 12:53:38 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 17, 2023, 05:54:43 PMI'm long Google and happy with it.

You saw that Samsung is considering ditching Google for Microsoft search on their phones?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 12:54:11 AM
Quote from: Josquius on April 17, 2023, 11:55:55 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 17, 2023, 01:11:38 PMI'm all in on Microsoft. Considering a Google short.

Whats M$ got brewing?

6-12 months head start over Google in AI. Plus Google can't ship.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2023, 12:56:40 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 12:53:38 AMYou saw that Samsung is considering ditching Google for Microsoft search on their phones?

I did not.  But that doesn't worry me.  Regardless of what your device comes with as the default it's too easy to switch.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:23:37 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2023, 12:56:40 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 12:53:38 AMYou saw that Samsung is considering ditching Google for Microsoft search on their phones?

I did not.  But that doesn't worry me.  Regardless of what your device comes with as the default it's too easy to switch.

Interesting. Then why is Google paying Apple $8-12bn per year to be the default search on iOS?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on April 18, 2023, 01:40:01 AM
Main difference is Bing sucks. Sucks so much it's become its own meme. So have to jump that hurdle first.  If Google is paying I'm assuming they're paying so apple doesn't developed their own.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:46:44 AM
Quote from: HVC on April 18, 2023, 01:40:01 AMMain difference is Bing sucks. Sucks so much it's become its own meme. So have to jump that hurdle first.  If Google is paying I'm assuming they're paying so apple doesn't developed their own.

Google is useless to me. The first page of search results is just ads, and then its pages which have been SEO'd to death.

Bing search is also bad but not quite. The full integration of Bing Chat is a real advantage.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2023, 01:54:29 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:23:37 AMInteresting. Then why is Google paying Apple $8-12bn per year to be the default search on iOS?

I was not aware of this.

That is certainly much more than I thought the default on Apple would be worth.

Any idea how much MS is paying Samsung?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on April 18, 2023, 02:29:58 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:46:44 AM
Quote from: HVC on April 18, 2023, 01:40:01 AMMain difference is Bing sucks. Sucks so much it's become its own meme. So have to jump that hurdle first.  If Google is paying I'm assuming they're paying so apple doesn't developed their own.

Google is useless to me. The first page of search results is just ads, and then its pages which have been SEO'd to death.

Bing search is also bad but not quite. The full integration of Bing Chat is a real advantage.

Maybe you are just bad at using search engines?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 02:31:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2023, 01:54:29 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:23:37 AMInteresting. Then why is Google paying Apple $8-12bn per year to be the default search on iOS?

I was not aware of this.

That is certainly much more than I thought the default on Apple would be worth.

Any idea how much MS is paying Samsung?

Couldn't find a number.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 02:33:04 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 18, 2023, 02:29:58 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:46:44 AM
Quote from: HVC on April 18, 2023, 01:40:01 AMMain difference is Bing sucks. Sucks so much it's become its own meme. So have to jump that hurdle first.  If Google is paying I'm assuming they're paying so apple doesn't developed their own.

Google is useless to me. The first page of search results is just ads, and then its pages which have been SEO'd to death.

Bing search is also bad but not quite. The full integration of Bing Chat is a real advantage.

Maybe you are just bad at using search engines?

Maybe you're duped by the ads? The icon is very small now.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on April 18, 2023, 02:35:43 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 02:33:04 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 18, 2023, 02:29:58 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:46:44 AM
Quote from: HVC on April 18, 2023, 01:40:01 AMMain difference is Bing sucks. Sucks so much it's become its own meme. So have to jump that hurdle first.  If Google is paying I'm assuming they're paying so apple doesn't developed their own.

Google is useless to me. The first page of search results is just ads, and then its pages which have been SEO'd to death.

Bing search is also bad but not quite. The full integration of Bing Chat is a real advantage.

Maybe you are just bad at using search engines?

Maybe you're duped by the ads? The icon is very small now.

Maybe your vision is going? :console:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 18, 2023, 03:08:38 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 02:31:55 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 18, 2023, 01:54:29 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 18, 2023, 01:23:37 AMInteresting. Then why is Google paying Apple $8-12bn per year to be the default search on iOS?

I was not aware of this.

That is certainly much more than I thought the default on Apple would be worth.

Any idea how much MS is paying Samsung?

Couldn't find a number.

Yes we have established you cannot use Google.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on April 18, 2023, 10:13:34 AM
New computer at work.  It was Bing set up as the default search engine.

Bing really sucks.  I mean truly.  Goggle is much, much more likely to give me the result I'm looking for in the top one or two results.

Maybe Bing Chat makes a difference.  I don't think I've used it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 18, 2023, 10:19:35 AM
I try to use Ecosia to get away from Google's tentacles a little and because the planet is nice...but damn it I keep going back to Google. Its just better.
Bing doesn't have any added advantage to make something worse worth it.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 22, 2023, 01:57:53 PM
I picked up some Games Workshop because Nerds really pay a small fortune for their minis. Plus the Amazon adaptation will really drive this company forward.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 22, 2023, 02:09:31 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 22, 2023, 01:57:53 PMI picked up some Games Workshop because Nerds really pay a small fortune for their minis. Plus the Amazon adaptation will really drive this company forward.

1. Is there an Amazon adaptation?

2. Surely GW isn't a very recession - proof stock?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 22, 2023, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Tamas on April 22, 2023, 02:09:31 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 22, 2023, 01:57:53 PMI picked up some Games Workshop because Nerds really pay a small fortune for their minis. Plus the Amazon adaptation will really drive this company forward.

1. Is there an Amazon adaptation?

2. Surely GW isn't a very recession - proof stock?

1. Yes and Henry Cavill will star in it and produce it.

2. What recession?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 22, 2023, 05:05:26 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 22, 2023, 02:14:50 PM2. What recession?

Give it 3-4 months.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 22, 2023, 05:17:38 PM
What else do you have in your portfolio Hamilcar?

I'll show you mine first if anyone cares.

Tesla
Square
SPY (SP500 ETF)
Netflix
Google
Nvidia
VHT (healthcare ETF)
AMLP (pipeline ETF)
Skechers
Tencent
Robinhood
Paramount
Crisper Therapeutics
NNDM (Israeli 3D printing)
Canopy Growth
AT&T
Visa
Boeing
Walmart
JPMorgan
WDIV (dividend ETF)

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 23, 2023, 05:48:57 AM
Mostly US index ETFs plus some Microsoft. Trying to figure our positioning for the next market phase.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 25, 2023, 05:47:09 PM
Microsoft up over 8% on earnings beat.  ;)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 25, 2023, 06:37:25 PM
Quote from: Josquius on April 17, 2023, 11:55:55 PMWhats M$ got brewing?
I don't pick stocks I put savings in pre-selected funds, so ignore my opinion because I don't know.

But from my sector they've made interesting moves in the last year in online advertising with purchases they've made. No idea if they can stitch it all together. Nor sure also what strategy they'll go for but lots of the bits they have acquired liked to pitch themselves as better at privacy (they're not) and less of a walled garden than, say, Google - so I can see an idea of what Microsoft might want to try and create. Again, no idea if they can.

Google seem to be in a slightly more difficult spot - but that might just be wishful thinking on my part :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 03:35:09 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 22, 2023, 05:05:26 PM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 22, 2023, 02:14:50 PM2. What recession?

Give it 3-4 months.

I'm increasing convinced that the recession was in the second half of last year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 26, 2023, 04:25:17 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 25, 2023, 05:47:09 PMMicrosoft up over 8% on earnings beat.  ;)

Yeah for quite a while this year I felt good for bailing out of it at $273, not anymore. :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 04:26:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 26, 2023, 04:25:17 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 25, 2023, 05:47:09 PMMicrosoft up over 8% on earnings beat.  ;)

Yeah for quite a while this year I felt good for bailing out of it at $273, not anymore. :P

It's going to be over $450 in a year.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 04:31:17 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 22, 2023, 05:17:38 PMWhat else do you have in your portfolio Hamilcar?

I'll show you mine first if anyone cares.

Tesla
Square
SPY (SP500 ETF)
Netflix
Google
Nvidia
VHT (healthcare ETF)
AMLP (pipeline ETF)
Skechers
Tencent
Robinhood
Paramount
Crisper Therapeutics
NNDM (Israeli 3D printing)
Canopy Growth
AT&T
Visa
Boeing
Walmart
JPMorgan
WDIV (dividend ETF)



What's your rough division between ETFs and individual names? I try to minimize individual names unless I have a really solid thesis and that takes time.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 26, 2023, 04:44:52 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 04:26:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 26, 2023, 04:25:17 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 25, 2023, 05:47:09 PMMicrosoft up over 8% on earnings beat.  ;)

Yeah for quite a while this year I felt good for bailing out of it at $273, not anymore. :P

It's going to be over $450 in a year.

I would not expect 2020-21 to the be new normal on the stock market.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 05:14:39 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 26, 2023, 04:44:52 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 04:26:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 26, 2023, 04:25:17 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 25, 2023, 05:47:09 PMMicrosoft up over 8% on earnings beat.  ;)

Yeah for quite a while this year I felt good for bailing out of it at $273, not anymore. :P

It's going to be over $450 in a year.

I would not expect 2020-21 to the be new normal on the stock market.

That assessment isn't based on overall market performance but on the fact that Microsoft is all in on AI and has a head start.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 26, 2023, 07:08:47 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 04:31:17 AMWhat's your rough division between ETFs and individual names? I try to minimize individual names unless I have a really solid thesis and that takes time.

Around a fifth in ETFs.

As for solid thesis, all I need is a hunch, one Motley Fool article for due diligence, then i throw the dice.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 07:10:18 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 26, 2023, 07:08:47 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 04:31:17 AMWhat's your rough division between ETFs and individual names? I try to minimize individual names unless I have a really solid thesis and that takes time.

Around a fifth in ETFs.

As for solid thesis, all I need is a hunch, one Motley Fool article for due diligence, then i throw the dice.

Ah, a true wallstreetbets student  :lol:

I remember the days when Shkreli himself was a mod. That was glorious.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 26, 2023, 07:16:18 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 07:10:18 AMAh, a true wallstreetbets student  :lol:

I remember the days when Shkreli himself was a mod. That was glorious.

Fuck that noise.  Those clowns don't diversify and they want to get rich quick so they bet the farm on call options.  As you can see I'm diversified and I've only bought one option in my life, a put on Gamestop at the peak of the frenzy.

Instead I'm getting a slow drip, drip, drip of income from *selling* options.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 26, 2023, 10:44:23 AM
Hami, what are your thoughts about the regulatory rejection in the UK for your favourite shares?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 26, 2023, 10:45:52 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 26, 2023, 10:44:23 AMHami, what are your thoughts about the regulatory rejection in the UK for your favourite shares?

Minor issue.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 26, 2023, 11:07:17 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 26, 2023, 10:44:23 AMHami, what are your thoughts about the regulatory rejection in the UK for your favourite shares?
The rise of the CMA as a very interventionist and merger-sceptical regulator is really interesting. They blocked the Sabre Farelogix deal and, after the event, are forcing Facebook to sell Giphy. Their guidance on how they'll approach tech mergers is also very interventionist and robust.

It's been developing for the last few years (also some big investigations ongoing on energy and cloud), but is striking.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 26, 2023, 11:15:44 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 26, 2023, 11:07:17 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 26, 2023, 10:44:23 AMHami, what are your thoughts about the regulatory rejection in the UK for your favourite shares?
The rise of the CMA as a very interventionist and merger-sceptical regulator is really interesting. They blocked the Sabre Farelogix deal and, after the event, are forcing Facebook to sell Giphy. Their guidance on how they'll approach tech mergers is also very interventionist and robust.

It's been developing for the last few years (also some big investigations ongoing on energy and cloud), but is striking.

Interesting. We are seeing a similar trend with Canadian regulators.  Previously the attitude seemed to be come one come all and buy our stuff.  But now, especially given the problem of China buying up our resource extraction companies, they have become more interventionist.

There is also more willingness to enforce the competition act.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 26, 2023, 11:55:57 AM
That makes sense - I think there's definitely growing focus on China and new national security grounds.

But here I think there's an interesting emerging focus on tech (Nvidia, Sabre, Giphy and now this deal) - and the CMA is going to be getting even more powers over digital markets. Fair to say not all regulators are anywhere near as activist.

Activision's response is extraordinary and basically asking for political intervention but, short of new legislation, I'm not sure there's much politicians can do (and literally yesterday they introduced a bill that would increase the CMA's responsibilities).

I'm not sure but would love to know why/how they've become so interventionist.

Edit: Another recent example of their focus on tech and digital markets was the deal with Google on App Store payments just last week.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 26, 2023, 12:19:58 PM
After shooting itself in the foot, the UK has to now go all in protectionist?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 26, 2023, 12:37:50 PM
Except for Nvidia-Arm, I don't think any of them involve UK companies (and that was a bit more political because chips).

Worth pointing out all the centre-right think tanks are fairly regularly apoplectic about the CMA. Worth noting in this case I believe the FTC has also objected (but very different/court based system there) and EU regulators won't give their view until the next few months.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Valmy on April 26, 2023, 12:46:02 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 26, 2023, 12:19:58 PMAfter shooting itself in the foot, the UK has to now go all in protectionist?

I think everybody kind of is. We seem to go in this pattern internationally of going all free trade and international cooperation to protectionism and every country for itself and then back again.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on April 26, 2023, 04:26:39 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 26, 2023, 12:46:02 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on April 26, 2023, 12:19:58 PMAfter shooting itself in the foot, the UK has to now go all in protectionist?

I think everybody kind of is. We seem to go in this pattern internationally of going all free trade and international cooperation to protectionism and every country for itself and then back again.

Canada is still trying to avoid it, at least within North America.  The Americans are going even more protectionist than they have in the past though, which will mean Canada and Mexico will need to do the same.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Jacob on April 26, 2023, 05:52:46 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 26, 2023, 11:55:57 AMActivision's response is extraordinary and basically asking for political intervention but, short of new legislation, I'm not sure there's much politicians can do (and literally yesterday they introduced a bill that would increase the CMA's responsibilities).

What's the story with the CMA and Activision?

(and what does CMA stand for?)
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on April 27, 2023, 01:58:05 AM
CMA = Competition and Markets Authority

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/apr/26/what-does-uks-ban-on-microsofts-activision-blizzard-takeover-mean-for-gaming

The CMA maintains it is looking out for the interests of gamers. Their decision vetoes the planned merger. The USA and EU may think that having a relatively small economy interfere in this way is unacceptable.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 27, 2023, 02:53:28 AM
Checking up Activision do seem to have 2 studios in the UK. One of them seems to be the Call of Duty guys.
There was a recent case where a UK registered tech company was taken over by an American rival, with the UK authority being the one in the world to delay things, but then when it happened almost everyone in the UK was fired... Its nice to think the government might be taking note of this.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on April 27, 2023, 03:01:45 AM
Quote from: Josquius on April 27, 2023, 02:53:28 AMChecking up Activision do seem to have 2 studios in the UK. One of them seems to be the Call of Duty guys.
There was a recent case where a UK registered tech company was taken over by an American rival, with the UK authority being the one in the world to delay things, but then when it happened almost everyone in the UK was fired... Its nice to think the government might be taking note of this.

Sure but what if a UK company is being sold because it cannot make it on its own? Then cancelling the deal would be what  destroys jobs.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on April 27, 2023, 03:03:01 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 27, 2023, 03:01:45 AM
Quote from: Josquius on April 27, 2023, 02:53:28 AMChecking up Activision do seem to have 2 studios in the UK. One of them seems to be the Call of Duty guys.
There was a recent case where a UK registered tech company was taken over by an American rival, with the UK authority being the one in the world to delay things, but then when it happened almost everyone in the UK was fired... Its nice to think the government might be taking note of this.

Sure but what if a UK company is being sold because it cannot make it on its own? Then cancelling the deal would be what  destroys jobs.

Thats not what happened in my example nor here.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 27, 2023, 05:14:13 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 27, 2023, 01:58:05 AMThe CMA maintains it is looking out for the interests of gamers. Their decision vetoes the planned merger. The USA and EU may think that having a relatively small economy interfere in this way is unacceptable.
Not sure what the US or EU could really do about it. Companies could basically cut the UK out of their deals but so far no-one's showing much willingness to do this (I think they would over some of the online safety stuff).

I'm reminded of the huffing and puffing and threats to cut Australia out of the internet when they had the temerity to propose a tax on social media companies. They passed the tax. The social media companies have paid up and the internet still functions in Australia.

It's based on market share or revenue in the UK and I actually think this is probably going to be a growing trend. A lot of state law in the US that affect digital companies are basically extra-territorial (it's based on residents) - similarly EU law on this is extra-territorial (as is the UK's because we've still got the same laws). I think we're at a bit of a tipping point on this - increasingly it seems like you either have laws that basically require localisation of online services so they're subject to your regulations if they're using the data/offering goods and services to your residents (the Russian and Chinese solution) or you have domestic regulators with increasingly extra-territorial scope if you touch the data of or offer services to their residents (what's happening at state level in the US, but also the EU, UK, Australia etc). See also the Italian data protection regulator ordering a block on ChatGPT in Italy until they fix some issues.

QuoteThere was a recent case where a UK registered tech company was taken over by an American rival, with the UK authority being the one in the world to delay things, but then when it happened almost everyone in the UK was fired... Its nice to think the government might be taking note of this.
That's not it and I don't think that's part of the CMA's terms of reference. I think the government accidentally got what it wanted - the CMA's powers were beefed up when we left the EU because competition policy is now domestic. The government then consulted on a "pro-competition" regulator and regime. I suspect as they're watching them block or unwind mergers because they're anti-competitive, the government is basically thinking "not like that!" :lol:

As I say the CMA has also been picked as the lead regulator for digital markets and consumer protection online with powers to fine up to 10% of global revenue and more powers with extra-territorial scope. Which I think is probably a good thing because they're an active regulator unlike, sadly, the UK's data protection regulator which is very slow and just really struggles with complex, technical, likely litigious decisions.

QuoteWhat's the story with the CMA and Activision?
Yeah as everyone says - the UK's competition regulator blocked Microsoft's purchase of Activision. They are going to appeal but the appeal route is pretty narrow and is basically judicial review - so it only really looks at "reasonableness" and procedure. Microsoft's statement was pretty punchy. Activision's was incredibly strong and basically trying to make politicians do something about it (and you do see lots in right-wing think tanks about the CMA being a regulator gone rogue):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fupd3DzWAAUp0L8?format=jpg&name=small)

The CMA has form and have emerged as a very important competition regulator. They've blocked Nvidia-Arm, they blocked the Sabre-Farelogix merger, they are forcing Facebook to sell Giphy (that was the first case which gave a hint of this) and they're forcing Google to open up payment option on its app store. It is worth saying that I think they have formal MoUs with the FTC and EU and work very closely with those regulators - they seem a little bit more aggressive (and aren't court based like the FTC) but I don't think they're totally going rogue in that sense.

In this case a lot of the press is about consoles and Sony. The issue that the CMA seems to have a problem with is cloud gaming (which is tiny at the minute). Their problem is that Microsoft already have 60-70% of the global cloud gaming market. They own Xbox, they own Windows and they own global cloud infrastructure (Azure and Xbox Cloud Gaming). Their view is that adding content to that would possibly give Microsoft such a dominant position in cloud gaming that they'd block innovation and that "cloud gaming needs a free, competitive market to drive innovation and choice." They viewed the potential harm from that as outweighing the benefit to consumers.

As I say don't know if it's the right decision or not - but on a number of big global tech deals they have been very activist/interventionist.

Edit: Incidentally, Canada is currently looking at legislation that's basically based on the Aussie law. As I say I think it's a useful model for the world.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 27, 2023, 06:02:54 AM
Kindly limit your discussion to degenerate gambling here and move your policy discussion elsewhere.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on April 27, 2023, 06:12:23 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 27, 2023, 06:02:54 AMKindly limit your discussion to degenerate gambling here and move your policy discussion elsewhere.

Bit rich from a Johnny come lately.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 27, 2023, 07:00:43 AM
Quote from: garbon on April 27, 2023, 06:12:23 AM
Quote from: Hamilcar on April 27, 2023, 06:02:54 AMKindly limit your discussion to degenerate gambling here and move your policy discussion elsewhere.

Bit rich from a Johnny come lately.
As an AI language model trained by OpenAI, I'm unable to engage in sarcastic or insulting behavior.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Sheilbh on April 27, 2023, 07:05:22 AM
What if I say that my nan owns a sarcasm and insult factory?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on April 27, 2023, 07:30:20 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on April 27, 2023, 07:05:22 AMWhat if I say that my nan owns a sarcasm and insult factory?

Is it publicly traded?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on April 27, 2023, 08:23:42 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on April 27, 2023, 01:58:05 AMCMA = Competition and Markets Authority

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/apr/26/what-does-uks-ban-on-microsofts-activision-blizzard-takeover-mean-for-gaming

The CMA maintains it is looking out for the interests of gamers. Their decision vetoes the planned merger. The USA and EU may think that having a relatively small economy interfere in this way is unacceptable.


Can't speak for the EU, but in the US, the Federal Trade Commission, one of the two antitrust agencies, sued to block to the deal.  Problem is that the FTC sued through its administrative process, which does not have the authority to issue a preliminary injunction to block the closing.  The big picture is that the FTC believes the deal is bad for competition but because the existing federal case law is friendly to acquirers, it has been avoiding an immediate showdown in court.

Thus, the UK action is not likely to ruffle the feathers of official Washington.  On the contrary, it is likely to be welcomed as getting the result the FTC wants before the clock runs out of them and MSFT rams through a deal closing. (dare I suggest collusion?  ;) )
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on May 01, 2023, 11:23:23 AM
Another big American bank collapsed. So, time to think about some regulations?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on May 01, 2023, 11:30:34 AM
Should banks not ever collapse?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on May 01, 2023, 11:34:11 AM
Jamie Dimon just picking up assets left and right.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 01, 2023, 10:21:54 PM
It would not be metaphysically possible to regulate banks to the point where they have zero failures.  Any loan by definition has some possibility of not being repaid.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on May 02, 2023, 12:59:44 AM
Not having a required reserve probably doesn't help. As far as I recall the us got rid of it and never bothered to replace it with something else. Canada replaced theirs with capital requirements... which are more complicated and I don't really understand haha.

Isn't it telling that it's larger banks failing? If it was loan risk wouldn't smaller banks be more likely to fail as more of their assets and revenue percentages are loans? It was the big ones the failed in 2008 too, wasn't it?


Minsky will be along eventually to tell me I'm wrong, and I'll agree with him because he knows about this stuff :D
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 02, 2023, 01:03:23 AM
I've never heard of the reserve requirement being abolished.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: HVC on May 02, 2023, 01:13:48 AM
Let's see, I recall reading about it a few year ago, but this is what wiki says

QuoteThe United States removed reserve requirements for nonpersonal time deposits and eurocurrency liabilities on Dec 27, 1990 and for net transaction accounts on March 27, 2020.


Net transaction accounts are checking and savings, so it appears that there's no reserve requirements for us banks any more.

But then again it's wiki, so you know... 
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 02, 2023, 03:52:52 AM
What I have trouble with is not supervising banks enough but then bailing them out just the same.

Or their clients. Silicon Valley Bank probably made good use of their reckless investments and I assume their big clients benefited from that while the going was good, and turned out telhe risk they all took wasn't really a risk at least not for the uninsured depositors, because their money was retrospectively guaranteed.

And then the Fed started the program of effectively replacing shitty bonds with newer (and thus better) ones for all banks.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 02, 2023, 03:55:32 AM
SVB's crazy reckless assets were US Treasury bonds.  I'm sure they made like a stupid mad 2%/year on them.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 02, 2023, 04:02:47 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 02, 2023, 03:55:32 AMSVB's crazy reckless assets were US Treasury bonds.  I'm sure they made like a stupid mad 2%/year on them.

Still, the uninsured deposits should have been left uninsured and no "exchange your bonds for free" program should have been initiated. Let crappy banks wash out of the system. You know, free market and all.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 02, 2023, 10:17:31 AM
Quote from: Tamas on May 02, 2023, 04:02:47 AMStill, the uninsured deposits should have been left uninsured and no "exchange your bonds for free" program should have been initiated. Let crappy banks wash out of the system. You know, free market and all.

SVB did wash out of the system.  And I would argue they were not a crappy bank.  They were an extremely conservative, solvent bank that got undone by irrational depositor behavior.

I agreed with you about not making depositors whole, but then as Joan pointed out businesses have no place to park their working capital.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: The Minsky Moment on May 02, 2023, 01:22:49 PM
Reserve requirement was moved to zero when COVID hit.

By statute the Fed's authority to institute reserve requirements can be used "solely for the purpose of implementing monetary policy."  Reserve requirements are not set for prudential and regulatory purposes.  They are there to be used as a monetary policy tool. 

However, reserve requirements ceased being important as a tool for monetary a long time ago. Post 2008 they became a complete dead letter, as the amount of reserves that depository institutions kept with the Fed increased massively.  The level of reserves has declined somewhat from its peak but is still extremely high by pre 2009 standards.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on May 20, 2023, 12:06:14 PM
Microsoft  :cool:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Hamilcar on May 20, 2023, 12:07:27 PM
I tried experimenting with three top portfolio tracking tools and was really disappointed. They all support crypto and one even had an NFT option.

None of them allowed me to add a t bill.  :wacko:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 25, 2023, 09:20:55 AM
Nvidia up 23% in one day.  I don't think i've seen a one day rise that big outside a wallstreetbets stock.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tamas on May 25, 2023, 09:22:34 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 25, 2023, 09:20:55 AMNvidia up 23% in one day.  I don't think i've seen a one day rise that big outside a wallstreetbets stock.

AI AI AI AI!
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on May 25, 2023, 09:36:40 AM
Didn't someone earlier in the thread warn against Nvidia? <_<
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 25, 2023, 09:40:12 AM
Quote from: Josquius on May 25, 2023, 09:36:40 AMDidn't someone earlier in the thread warn against Nvidia? <_<

Should we cancel them?  Demand our fee back?

Every single stock has a bull case and a bear case.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: DGuller on May 25, 2023, 09:41:33 AM
Nvidia's CUDA was a sleeper hit, it took years to pay off for them, but paying off it is.  I hope AMD and Intel are working on an effective response to CUDA, because otherwise Microsoft and Google monopoly might seem tame in comparison to Nvidia monopoly.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Habbaku on May 25, 2023, 09:52:13 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 25, 2023, 09:40:12 AM
Quote from: Josquius on May 25, 2023, 09:36:40 AMDidn't someone earlier in the thread warn against Nvidia? <_<

Should we cancel them?  Demand our fee back?

Every single stock has a bull case and a bear case.

:yes:

If you're going to get irate about following a tip that doesn't work out, maybe consider doing the rational thing and not engaging in stock picking?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on May 25, 2023, 10:35:14 AM
FYI Squeeze, it was Hillary who warned off Nvidia. Let the public shaming begin. :ph34r:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 01, 2023, 09:39:32 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODz4Ex58oeM

MSNBC interview with dude about Netflix, Disney, streaming in genera.  I thought he had interesting things to say.

Full disclosure: I own Netflix.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on June 11, 2023, 03:59:53 AM
Disney's in a cash crunch because they have to buy Hulu. That's probably the cause of most of their current problems. Financial problems. The terrible TV shows and movies are a completely different issue.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on June 12, 2023, 02:28:45 PM
I wish they would buy Paramount.

Finally back to my high of two years ago.  Or looking at the glass half empty, zero return for two years.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Barrister on June 12, 2023, 02:36:41 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on June 12, 2023, 02:28:45 PMI wish they would buy Paramount.

Pretty sure that would cause massive anti-trust issues.  It was tricky enough when they bought chunks of Fox.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: MadImmortalMan on August 26, 2023, 01:07:53 AM
I've finally closed my short position on Disney. Bob Iger's incompetence has been paying off for years but now hopefully bottoming out. That guy wanted to run for President. What a loser.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on August 30, 2023, 08:07:30 PM
Thanks again veep. :cheers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-hOs-a1vLc

Nvidia up 237.48% YTD, AMD up 64.64%.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 14, 2024, 12:08:42 PM
The shares in companies researching psilocybin based medication for depression that I bought with my play money a while back (that have done nothing but go down in value since I bought them) are showing signs of life now.  One received FDA initial approval on Monday and shot up in value.  The second received FDA approval on Wednesday and that price did not move.   So I bought a bunch more - it's just a penny stock at this point.  This morning the second company announced the results of second round of clinical trials - 75% of patients were in remission after only 2 doses.  Remission!  That is very promising.  [Furiously knocks on wood]
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 19, 2024, 09:31:38 PM
Chiptole is splitting 50-1.
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on March 20, 2024, 01:48:31 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 19, 2024, 09:31:38 PMChiptole is splitting 50-1.

Nasty
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 26, 2024, 09:51:10 PM
Tempted to toss a token amount into DJT as a very cynical investment move...on the idea that when roughly 40-45% of the population are suckers...profit???  :hmm:
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: garbon on March 27, 2024, 02:10:59 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 26, 2024, 09:51:10 PMTempted to toss a token amount into DJT as a very cynical investment move...on the idea that when roughly 40-45% of the population are suckers...profit???  :hmm:

Why don't you buy one of his new God bless America bibles?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 27, 2024, 04:25:19 AM
Surely the time to do this was some months ago?
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: crazy canuck on March 27, 2024, 06:57:35 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 27, 2024, 04:25:19 AMSurely the time to do this was some months ago?


It just went public.

Toni, it's never a good idea to get involved in a pump and dump scheme even if you know it is a pump and dump scheme.

Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Tonitrus on March 27, 2024, 08:22:22 AM
Quote from: garbon on March 27, 2024, 02:10:59 AM
Quote from: Tonitrus on March 26, 2024, 09:51:10 PMTempted to toss a token amount into DJT as a very cynical investment move...on the idea that when roughly 40-45% of the population are suckers...profit???  :hmm:

Why don't you buy one of his new God bless America bibles?

No chance for return on investment.  :P
Title: Re: Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono
Post by: Josquius on March 27, 2024, 10:51:33 AM
Quote from: crazy canuck on March 27, 2024, 06:57:35 AM
Quote from: Josquius on March 27, 2024, 04:25:19 AMSurely the time to do this was some months ago?


It just went public.

Toni, it's never a good idea to get involved in a pump and dump scheme even if you know it is a pump and dump scheme.



The SPAC has been around for a while though right?
I haven't looked at reddit for a while but I'd be surprised if they weren't on that.