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General Category => Off the Record => Topic started by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2022, 07:29:58 PM

Title: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2022, 07:29:58 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BgXcLq_wMU

Oklahoma governor's race is a toss up.  I did not expect that at all.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on November 05, 2022, 07:44:37 PM
It's gonna be a rough Tuesday.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 05, 2022, 08:20:44 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2022, 07:29:58 PMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BgXcLq_wMU

Oklahoma governor's race is a toss up.  I did not expect that at all.

How's the Arizona governor race? The Republican candidate is full on MAGA bonkers and really fucking scary.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 05, 2022, 08:25:01 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 05, 2022, 08:20:44 PMHow's the Arizona governor race? The Republican candidate is full on MAGA bonkers and really fucking scary.

538 has the loon up by 2.

Very surprisingly on that same page they have blue up by 5 in the Kansas governor's race.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/arizona/
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zoupa on November 05, 2022, 10:49:25 PM
I think Democrats will lose the House, the Senate and most governorships. It's gonna be bleak as fuck.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josephus on November 06, 2022, 06:33:49 AM
Ok, so I haven't been paying attention to U.S. politics. But I'm pretty sure just a few months ago, the consensus was the Democrats were going to do quite well, that the abortion decision swung things there way. Now that's not the case. What happened? Inflation shit?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2022, 08:23:02 AM
Quote from: Josephus on November 06, 2022, 06:33:49 AMOk, so I haven't been paying attention to U.S. politics. But I'm pretty sure just a few months ago, the consensus was the Democrats were going to do quite well, that the abortion decision swung things there way. Now that's not the case. What happened? Inflation shit?

No one has a genuine answer to this, and it's been the subject of endless political op-ed writing and etc.

The consensus from people I read is that the summer was an aberrant blip. People got upset about Roe v. Wade being repealed and turned that anger towards the Republican party. But, like so many things, it was a news cycle and nothing more. People don't get abortions every day, they aren't part of "daily life." There's plenty of centrist voters who don't want to see them made illegal, but how much does it really impact their day-to-day life? Sure, if they end up needing an abortion that they or a loved one can't get, they will change their opinion on how important it is, but that's only a small sliver of society. People are often very good at cognitive dissonance, there's plenty of women who had abortions before the age of 25 who are middle aged pro-lifers now, or at least indifferent to the subject.

I think the reasons the Democrats are looking bad is the same reasons as they looked bad prior to the Dobbs decision--and there is a matter of dispute there. There's basically a few schools of thought that I've seen pundits of both sides express:

- It's the economy, stupid. [Note a study recently came out showing that the performance of the economy largely does not seem predictive for congressional midterms. Going back to the New Deal era.
- Cultural issues. Basically Republicans have succeeded in making people very angry about a number of cultural issues, and the Democrats have no adequate response.
- We have such a polarized society that a huge portion of the electorate is permalocked now, and there's a weird 10ish to 15ish percent, that polling has consistently shown simply "vote against" whomever is in power, every single election. In a hyper-polarized country this just guarantees the Democrats will lose. This same theory would likely say it guaranteed the Republican losses in 2018 and likely guarantees the D or R losses in 2026 depending on who wins in 2024.

I think there's decent evidence for all of these, but little evidence anyone can meaningfully demonstrate which of these theories explains which segment of voters behaving in which way. There has also been a huge infusion of billionaire cash into the political system this cycle almost all going towards Republicans. While many analyses have showed that political ad spending appears to have diminishing returns that cap out at levels an order of magnitude below what is being spent (i.e. tons of that money is entirely wasted), there's no reason to assume it has 0% influence. It also represents the reality that as the Republicans have steadily dismantled our democracy, Citizens United has allowed the GOP to use such money surges in repeated election cycles. It may be the case political advertising in a crunch season only moves the bar slightly, but that persistent infusion of conservative money into politics likely has worked at a lower background level over the last decade in ways that aren't easily captured by various metrics.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2022, 09:04:48 AM
Video of a Bill Maher standup this weekend on the state of the country and how democracy is likely ending--I largely agree with it:

https://youtu.be/HKVBvooZ2c8

I think he gets a few things slightly wrong, but it doesn't matter in the big picture (which he gets right.)

I'm a "supply sider" in why I think American democracy is coming to an end. I don't think it is Trump or specific politicians, it's the people. That's why one of the minor disagreements I have with Maher is him saying it is the most important election of our lifetimes. Unfortunately, with an entrenched anti-democratic public, that isn't true. If the Democrats somehow held the line, what would that change? When there is a groundswell of opposition to democratic norms, they can just keep coming back every two years--and they will eventually win. The country was lost when so many people turned on democracy, whichever election is the final nail in the coffin is mostly an accounting matter.

I also disagree with Maher's theory that if Trump loses in 2024 his army of election deniers will let him show up and be installed anyway. I actually don't think that's true because I don't think the specific nature of how our democracy will end will allow that. At least not in 2024. The election deniers are taking ministerial roles in many states, but those roles are governed by laws. It isn't actually that easy as a State Secretary of State or county election board to just look at a bunch of ballots with a result you don't like and say "nah, Trump won." That would be challenged in court, and even our currently Trump-infused judiciary would IMO based on what we saw in 2020, overrule blatant thefts of elections.

That shouldn't really comfort anyone, it's just saying some of the mechanics of our system will take a few cycles and a few more years to totally break down.

Also, the specific format of the current anti-democratic project, it won't really matter that much who the President is. The game is to defenestrate the Federal government and devolve power to an unelected elite, primarily businesspeople. America's post-democracy reality won't look like Hungary where opposition media is shutdown, or Putin's Russia where political opposition is criminalized.

Instead, we'll continue to have elections, they just won't matter. The goal isn't concentration camps or anything, it's more a society in which many people will live in areas where they have no protections for their drinking water, air quality, where their public schools have largely been gutted in the favor of religious charter schools, where your boss is going to be able to do more or less whatever he wants to you and you won't have any recourse. It'll be a country where wealthy people like me are pretty safe and comfortable, but if you don't fit that definition you likely will find a lot of things in your life get worse.

However, Maher is also right most people won't care. This is because most people are political ignorant, and won't link any unhappiness they find with their lives with the votes they are casting, they will be casting votes for "Christian values", and won't understand that is why their employer health plan gets gutted and they later get fired with no benefits, they'll blame that on socialists.

America has too entrenched a concept of free speech for us to see the non-regime media go away, and there is no reason to pursue that. The right has already succeeded in making that media irrelevant. They are enemies of the people. There will always be liberal lions crying into the void on MSNBC, but they will have no influence and nothing they say will matter.

Policy will largely be determined by whatever thing Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, and the disinformation regime they represent decide is good for engagement that week.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tamas on November 06, 2022, 09:15:47 AM
In other words, you'll become Orban's Hungary. :cheers:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tamas on November 06, 2022, 09:18:53 AM
I am on this fairly large Discord of a bunch of gamblers stock traders full of young(ish) Americans and the number of pro-Trump idiots is just overwhelming. Really depressing.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 06, 2022, 09:31:18 AM
I've said this before to friends. I have moved from a Humanist to a straight out Carlin pessimist.

Humanity had a good run, but it just isn't going to work out. Neither side of the political spectrum can get out of its tribes long enough to let humanity function at scale.

Evolution evolved us into a dead end.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 06, 2022, 05:10:04 PM
Quote from: Josephus on November 06, 2022, 06:33:49 AMOk, so I haven't been paying attention to U.S. politics. But I'm pretty sure just a few months ago, the consensus was the Democrats were going to do quite well, that the abortion decision swung things there way. Now that's not the case. What happened? Inflation shit?

I think a couple things happened.

One is that we heard a bunch of abortion advocates overselling the impact of abortion on voting, like Biscuit said, and bought the narrative.

Second, Mitch said primary voters had nominated a bunch of idiot Trumpists for Senate races (Walker and Oz come to mind) and that while the GOP was likely to win back the House he expected Democratic gains in the Senate.  My gut is that still holds true.  I saw a poll that had Fetterman with a four or six point lead over Oz.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zoupa on November 06, 2022, 08:01:48 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 06, 2022, 09:31:18 AMI've said this before to friends. I have moved from a Humanist to a straight out Carlin pessimist.

Humanity had a good run, but it just isn't going to work out. Neither side of the political spectrum can get out of its tribes long enough to let humanity function at scale.

Evolution evolved us into a dead end.

The US is not humanity. Canada, the EU, Japan, NZ, Australia and a bunch of others are largely avoiding the shitshow.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2022, 08:32:58 PM
I mean NZ and Australia are like 0.5% of humanity combined. The EU is...not remotely looking like it is safe from this, and Japan is a little uncertain on a number of fronts as well.

It's also worth noting most of humanity wasn't on board with Western liberal democracy to begin with, so losing the largest and most powerful Western democracy doesn't bode well.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zoupa on November 06, 2022, 09:29:46 PM
Sure, but democracy didn't start with the US and it won't end with it.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 06, 2022, 09:46:50 PM
Whatever foibles the US may have, they're a cornerstone of global democracy. If the US goes to autocracy, the rest of us will definitely feel it - especially up here in Canada.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on November 07, 2022, 02:16:30 AM
Quote from: Jacob on November 06, 2022, 09:46:50 PMWhatever foibles the US may have, they're a cornerstone of global democracy. If the US goes to autocracy, the rest of us will definitely feel it - especially up here in Canada.

I don't think the US will go autocratic any time soon. A kinda pedestrian authoritarian system seems much more likely to me. There is no obvious candidate for US autocrat (someone with the cunning and strength to grab absolute power) that I know of.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 07, 2022, 02:53:37 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 06, 2022, 09:04:48 AMVideo of a Bill Maher standup this weekend on the state of the country and how democracy is likely ending--I largely agree with it:

*snipped for brevity*


Saw that one too yesterday. Nothing cheery there. A few days earlier an op-ed piece in a local news-source was about the democracy-fatigue in Flanders/Belgium/EU. One of the points the writer of that piece was making is that voters lose democratic fervour as more and more come to the conclusion that their votes matter less and less.
Something that is especially a problem in growing parts of Europe where the EU just does as it pleases, the national goverments can often not do anything much at all due to coalitions/vested interests/EU/NGOs/lobbyists/etc (rightly or wrongly, because we all know the union is used as a scapegoat often enough).
Anyway, you get the drift.

The result being that people will vote for more outlying or even extreme parties. Of course these end up not being able to do much either in most cases. This then strengthens the feeling that democracy doesn't work at all anymore, leading to more people giving up on the concept.

Anyway, it'll get worse before it gets better again.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on November 07, 2022, 03:30:05 AM
I would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 07, 2022, 07:08:58 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 07, 2022, 03:30:05 AMI would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.


https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/youthanddemocracy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/12/08/yes-millennials-really-are-surprisingly-approving-of-dictators/

Seems it's those older people who are more invested in democracy than the younger generations though. No wonder as the old people are those capable of living in a society with multitudes of viewpoints, being unable to 'swipe' them away.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Gups on November 07, 2022, 12:25:57 PM
Quote from: Josquius on November 07, 2022, 03:30:05 AMI would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.


Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: crazy canuck on November 07, 2022, 12:31:12 PM
Quote from: Gups on November 07, 2022, 12:25:57 PM
Quote from: Josquius on November 07, 2022, 03:30:05 AMI would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.


Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.

I don't recall anyone suggesting that democracy in the US was in peril until now.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 07, 2022, 12:36:14 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on November 07, 2022, 02:53:37 AMSaw that one too yesterday. Nothing cheery there. A few days earlier an op-ed piece in a local news-source was about the democracy-fatigue in Flanders/Belgium/EU. One of the points the writer of that piece was making is that voters lose democratic fervour as more and more come to the conclusion that their votes matter less and less.

Same thing in US, and lesser extent Canada.

People will pull out surveys stating that large majorities of Americans are concerned about democracy.  But a lot of those respondents are voting Republican, and the concern they have about democracy is more about corporate donations / "cancel culture" and the like.

And I know there's an undercurrent out in the prairies that despite the fact the Conservatives have gotten a bigger share of the vote the last two elections, we keep getting governments that seem outwardly hostile to the prairies and use Alberta in particular as a foil in their messaging.  Thus leading to support for independence (though still low) and stupid freedom convoys.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 07, 2022, 12:46:37 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on November 07, 2022, 12:31:12 PM
Quote from: Gups on November 07, 2022, 12:25:57 PM
Quote from: Josquius on November 07, 2022, 03:30:05 AMI would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.


Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.

I don't recall anyone suggesting that democracy in the US was in peril until now.

Yeah that seemed a bit much.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on November 07, 2022, 01:18:28 PM
Quote from: Gups on November 07, 2022, 12:25:57 PM
Quote from: Josquius on November 07, 2022, 03:30:05 AMI would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.


Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.

You don't get how the Internet is relevant to the current post truth reality?
It's literally the major factor. If it isn't relevant I don't know what is.

And quite the opposite that people are always wrong. It goes back further than boomers too.

It's a pretty well observed that

1: the introduction of new communications technology is usually followed by a period of instability and a rise in extremism. Arguably this goes way back to the printing press. With less of a stretch it certainly goes back to the OG fascists and how they exploited then cutting edge new technologies to spread their message.
2: Research is pretty strong that those who grew up with the internet are on average far more conscious users who are less liable to be taken in by misinformation.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Gups on November 07, 2022, 01:21:02 PM
I hadn't understood J to be referring to the preilous state of American democracy in particular, just the general state of American politics and the likelihood of Republican victories. In any event, I'm pretty sure people have worried about democracy in America at regular intervals since 1776 - FDR standing for a 3rd term; Watergate, the military-industrial complex, the political murders in the 1960s.

It does feel worse now though I concede. At least since the ACW, losing parties have accepted the results. 
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 07, 2022, 01:22:42 PM
I personally feel like American democracy is in peril. Hopefully it turns out that my fears don't come to pass, but I'm definitely worried.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Gups on November 07, 2022, 01:35:05 PM
Quote from: Josquius on November 07, 2022, 01:18:28 PM
Quote from: Gups on November 07, 2022, 12:25:57 PM
Quote from: Josquius on November 07, 2022, 03:30:05 AMI would like to hope America is just needing to ride out a storm at the minute with boomers dying and more people who can handle the Internet turning 18.


Apart from the internert (not sure why that is relevant), people have bene saying something along these lines since the boomers were kids. They're always wrong.

You don't get how the Internet is relevant to the current post truth reality?
It's literally the major factor. If it isn't relevant I don't know what is.

And quite the opposite that people are always wrong. It goes back further than boomers too.

It's a pretty well observed that

1: the introduction of new communications technology is usually followed by a period of instability and a rise in extremism. Arguably this goes way back to the printing press. With less of a stretch it certainly goes back to the OG fascists and how they exploited then cutting edge new technologies to spread their message.
2: Research is pretty strong that those who grew up with the internet are on average far more conscious users who are less liable to be taken in by misinformation.

Is there evidence that the under 40s are less partisan than older people? Looking at the Yougov poll on Qanon support, there is little difference between the age groups. 32% of 65 years+ believed senior Dems were involved in child sex trafficking rings. 31% of 29-44s and 29% of both 45-64 years olds and 18-29s.

Meanwhile older people were slighly less likely to believe in a deep state conspiracy than younger people.

Older people were substantially less likely to beleieve that vaccines caused autism than younger people

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/30/which-groups-americans-believe-conspiracies


Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 07, 2022, 01:41:24 PM
Apparently Millenials and Gen Z are unlikely to identify with either party and an increasing amount of Millenials note they are independents.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/397241/millennials-gen-clinging-independent-party.aspx
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 07, 2022, 01:43:05 PM
Quote from: Josephus on November 06, 2022, 06:33:49 AMOk, so I haven't been paying attention to U.S. politics. But I'm pretty sure just a few months ago, the consensus was the Democrats were going to do quite well, that the abortion decision swung things there way. Now that's not the case. What happened? Inflation shit?

So this wasn't my analysis, I'm paraphrasing someone I heard on a podcast, but can't remember who or which one:

In the spring and summer the GOP was running strong based on issues of inflation and crime, with a side of 'the out party always does well in midterms', whereas the Dems were upset with Biden for nto getting a bunch of his biggest priorities done.

Some September though Democrats "came home", and started supporting Biden again.  This caused an increase in Dems poll numbers.

But this was always going to happen.  If you looked at Dems increasing poll numbers, and projected that increase through to November, then you could see the Dems doing quite well.  But there had been no fundamental change in the race and the "coming home" Democrat vpters were a limited group.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 07, 2022, 02:58:10 PM
My butt is firmly clenched. Need to hold the Senate.

The situation locally is also pretty bizarre. A bunch of fear mongering culture war money has flooded in take over the local school district. It is all nonsense and the local school district is one of the best in the state. It is completely manufactured outrage and man is it hard to deal with. I mean I cannot prove the schools AREN'T spreading pedophilia propaganda, I mean sure the fact there is no current problem with pedophilia in the school district doesn't seem to matter. But us locals do not have the money or resources to counter this culture war surge. We will see if we hold on on election day. It's nuts.

I feel bad for the teachers, they are working so hard and have done a great job and their reward to be smeared as pedophiles by the right wing culture warriors. For no reason at all, it is just a political strategy to seize power.

It is weird because when this outside money isn't flowing in we usually win these elections pretty handily. I will see what happens. Where is all the institutional backing and Hollywood and all these elite institutions who supposedly support the left? So much for that conspiracy theory. We never get shit but the other team just gets showered with funds from outside groups. It is frustration.

I hope the Democrats manage to win 14 Congressional seats, though the usual very low turnout in the Rio Grande Valley remains an issue. All the statewide elections will be close-ish but we should lose them all.

So that is how things look around here.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2022, 03:16:40 PM
I was concerned at first when I saw 538's projection that the GOP would pick up two Senate seats, but upon reflection I don't think it makes much difference.  Since a GOP controlled House is essentially a given, the next hurdle up from that is a Senate supermajority, capable of overriding a Biden veto.

I guess it would give them enough votes to stop confirmations. 

Are there any other advantages I'm not thinking of?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 07, 2022, 03:23:11 PM
I guess we should expect a massive amount of Congressional investigations into this that and the other non-GOP politicians. And, of course, the Jan 6th Committee investigations will end or be completely redirected.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on November 07, 2022, 03:24:41 PM
I hope they look into this Antifa thing I've heard so much about.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 07, 2022, 03:42:00 PM
There is no hope in a world where Herschel Walker is actually running in a dead heat for a US Senate seat.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 07, 2022, 05:37:59 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 07, 2022, 03:16:40 PMI was concerned at first when I saw 538's projection that the GOP would pick up two Senate seats, but upon reflection I don't think it makes much difference.  Since a GOP controlled House is essentially a given, the next hurdle up from that is a Senate supermajority, capable of overriding a Biden veto.

I guess it would give them enough votes to stop confirmations. 

Are there any other advantages I'm not thinking of?

Confirmations and being able to bring things up for a vote.

When the GOP-controlled House inevitably impeaches Joe Biden, would a Dem-controlled Senate be forced to hold the trial?  I know the Dem-controlled Senate did back in the 90s, but could the Senate Majority leader just go "Nah..."?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 07, 2022, 05:38:33 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 07, 2022, 03:42:00 PMThere is no hope in a world where Herschel Walker is actually running in a dead heat for a US Senate seat.

He's a celebrity, man.

I still say that goes a long way to explaining Trump.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Grey Fox on November 07, 2022, 06:27:14 PM
Lots of black and other minority people are going to have quite the nightmare to wake up too starting Wednesday morning.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 07, 2022, 07:03:03 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 07, 2022, 05:37:59 PMWhen the GOP-controlled House inevitably impeaches Joe Biden, would a Dem-controlled Senate be forced to hold the trial?  I know the Dem-controlled Senate did back in the 90s, but could the Senate Majority leader just go "Nah..."?

The Senate was very much in the hands of the Republicans in the 1990s when Clinton was impeached. They just didn't control it enough to convict.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on November 08, 2022, 06:51:03 AM
QuoteIs there evidence that the under 40s are less partisan than older people? Looking at the Yougov poll on Qanon support, there is little difference between the age groups. 32% of 65 years+ believed senior Dems were involved in child sex trafficking rings. 31% of 29-44s and 29% of both 45-64 years olds and 18-29s.

Meanwhile older people were slighly less likely to believe in a deep state conspiracy than younger people.

Older people were substantially less likely to beleieve that vaccines caused autism than younger people

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/30/which-groups-americans-believe-conspiracies

Covid is an interesting exception to the usual norm. Lots of theories for why this is the case but it basically comes down to older people having more trust in doctors- due to their upbringing? More experience with doctors in life? Less exposure all their life to antivax nonsense?
But certainly yes, it was quite bizzare to see people who are usually signed up for the anti-fact side being very pro vaccine.  I wonder if there was also a factor of how much their life was suffering due to covid /how at risk they personally were, that was to blame.





Quote from: garbon on November 07, 2022, 01:41:24 PMApparently Millenials and Gen Z are unlikely to identify with either party and an increasing amount of Millenials note they are independents.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/397241/millennials-gen-clinging-independent-party.aspx

Which with the republicans embracing the extreme right I would suggest is more promising for the Democrats.
Purely anecdotally when I was in Japan I met a lot of young conservative Americans...almost universally they now vote Democract, the only exception being one who was already pretty nuts and has gone off the deep end.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 08:18:37 AM
FWIW I don't know without further evidence that less party identification is a sign of less polarization. There's a lot of extremists who now identify as independents, but exclusively vote for one party. I think a certain segment of the population, and more so with the young, just dislike the idea of being part of a "party." Like I know several extremer Trumpers who would sooner have their toenails pulled off than vote for a Democrat who will vigorously deny being a Republican. There's a weird dissonance for many of them where they think being a Republican means having fealty to the party, which many of them hate. A lot of them actually think elements in the party are anti-Trump or undermine the "real" conservative agenda, and don't want to be seen as associated with that.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on November 08, 2022, 09:02:38 AM
In current times, being "neutral" is a statement in itself, just like being neutral in Russia-Ukraine war.  Being in the middle is no virtue when one side is clearly an unmitigated evil, even if you take claims of neutrality at face value.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Grey Fox on November 08, 2022, 09:04:46 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/11/elon-trump-resentment/672030/?utm_content=edit-promo&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_term=2022-11-07T23%3A48%3A57

Interesting article on, mostly, Trump and the resentment campaign.

I put this in this mid-term election because it's mainly a election article.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 08, 2022, 11:22:38 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2022, 09:02:38 AMIn current times, being "neutral" is a statement in itself, just like being neutral in Russia-Ukraine war.  Being in the middle is no virtue when one side is clearly an unmitigated evil, even if you take claims of neutrality at face value.
I suspect as it relates to the younger generation, it isn't that they are so much "neutral" is that their faith in institutions has been so badly damaged that they don't have any particular belief that either side gives much of a shit about them at all.

My kids friends (so far as I can tell) despise the GOP, but they don't look at the Democrats as any kind of saviors either.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 11:39:18 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-08/midterm-elections-joe-biden-s-economy-is-second-only-to-one

QuoteBiden's Economy Is Second Only to One at Midterm
More than a dozen measures of relative prosperity show this administration has outperformed six of its last seven predecessors.

ByMatthew A. Winkler
November 8, 2022 at 5:12 AM EST

As Americans cast their votes near the end of Democrat Joe Biden's second year in the White House, his 42% approval rating and the outcome of such midterm elections historically favoring the party not currently in charge gives the edge to Republicans. But the history of more than a dozen measures of relative prosperity shows Biden outperformed the last six of his seven predecessors and the 46th president has no peers reducing the nation's budget deficit.

The reality is that Biden has a credible economic record in the looming showdown with Republicans threatening to cut Social Security and Medicare spending while opposing any increase in the nation's borrowing limit next year. Growth in gross domestic product, jobs created, expanding home equity levels and the strengthening dollar combined to make the Biden economy over his first two years superior to every midterm presidency since Jimmy Carter.

As if that's not enough, the almost 10 percentage-point decline in the federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP -- to 5.4% from 15.6% -- is unprecedented. Presidents Bill Clinton and Carter reduced the deficit 2.4 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, in their first two years while it expanded 1.1 percentage points under Donald Trump, 1.3 percentage points under George H.W. Bush, 1.7 percentage points under Ronald Reagan, 3.7 percentage points under Barack Obama and 4.5 percentage points under George W. Bush, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

To be sure, the sudden scourge of inflation that was sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic eroded wage gains and prompted the Federal Reserve to tighten credit the most for any eight-month period. Stocks and bonds fell into bear markets, putting a big dent into savings and retirement accounts, with the central bank signaling no end to rising interest rates. But even as the bond market sustained losses for the first time in a first-term presidency going back to 1988 when such data was first compiled, benchmark Treasury securities proved a better investment than debt from the rest of the world, where inflation accelerated at a faster rate.

Aside from the $1.4 trillion reduction in the deficit, which is the largest drop in US history, the Biden economy broke another record when non-farm payrolls increased 7.6% to 153 million, the most since such data became available in 1939. At the same time, the US enjoys an unemployment rate of just 3.7%, hovering near a 50-year low. Jobs under Carter in the second half of the 1970s rose a greater percentage, 10.2%, but total payrolls were much smaller back then at 88 million. They climbed 6.1% during Clinton's first two years, 3% under Trump, 2.1% under the first Bush and declined 3% under Obama and 1.7% under the second Bush, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Manufacturing employment under Biden climbed 6% to 12.9 million, the most since 2008 and a percentage gain exceeded only by Carter's 9.1%. Factory workers declined 3.5% and 13.2% during the Bush midterm presidencies, 10.5% under Reagan and 9.8% under Obama. They increased 3.5% for Trump and 2.7% for Clinton, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nominal GDP reached a record $26 trillion in September, rising 18.2% under Biden and beating every midterm presidency since Carter's 28.1%, when GDP was just 9.6% of today's total. Homeowners'  equity in real estate advanced 31.5% to $29 trillion, a percentage gain unsurpassed since the 40% increase to $1.5 trillion under Carter. Dollar strength underlined the Biden economy's rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic, appreciating 23.3% against major world currencies -- the most for any midterm presidency since Reagan was in the White House. The dollar depreciated for every other president in their first two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nominal GDP reached a record $26 trillion in September, rising 18.2% under Biden and beating every midterm presidency since Carter's 28.1%, when GDP was just 9.6% of today's total. Homeowners'  equity in real estate advanced 31.5% to $29 trillion, a percentage gain unsurpassed since the 40% increase to $1.5 trillion under Carter. Dollar strength underlined the Biden economy's rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic, appreciating 23.3% against major world currencies -- the most for any midterm presidency since Reagan was in the White House. The dollar depreciated for every other president in their first two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

For all of the economy's presumed flaws since he took office 22 months ago, Biden is proving to be among its ablest stewards. No major developed nation has recovered faster from the Covid-19 pandemic. With unemployment at all-time lows in 11 states and less than 3% in 17 others, Biden policies helped create almost 700,000 manufacturing jobs as companies invested in domestic industries amid the century's biggest commitment to rebuilding roads, airports, bridges and ports. Any presidency achieving this much while overseeing the record decline in the federal deficit during the quickest rebound from recession speaks for itself.

It is interesting the perception--that frankly it seems the Democrats barely even contest on the airwaves or anywhere else, is that the economy is really bad right now. When by almost every measure of economic performance and measure of prosperity, the economy has improved from the time Biden was sworn in. Not only has it improved, it has improved more than it did for 6 of Biden's 7 predecessors.

What's the deal? Well if you look to the predecessor whom Biden is 2nd to, it is an ominous warning--that predecessor is Jimmy Carter. And there are actually some comparables between the two men.

Both did some things that I think deserve credit for helping the economy. Both also were primarily benefitting from the fact the economy had previously been in the gutter and was undergoing a corrective surge during their first years in office. There are probably reasons neither man got much credit--at least psychologically I think many people don't perceive all of the positives in the economy because they are just coming off a period of extreme economic disruption. In Carter's case coming out of the Ford era recession and in Biden's coming out of the various covid economic disruptions. The facts on the ground were improving for the country both in Carter's first two years and Biden's, but the tone was not. People did not feel positive about the future of America, in either Carter or Biden's first two years.

Biden has faced a far better funded, more comprehensive, and effective propaganda campaign designed to paint the picture of his administration being a failure and the country being a hellscape. The whole "country being a hellscape" line of attack in fact is now a good 12-year project by the forces promoting it and it has become almost innately entrenched in that side of the country as directly linked to not just the election of Democrats but the existence of Democrats at all.

Interestingly Carter was to be knocked out of office two years later by Reagan, one of the first major, national level candidates in the GOP to start trotting out the idea that America was a huge shithole (but hey vote for me and we'll restore it.) You can find some elements of the genesis of that line of argument in Nixon's '68 campaign, albeit Reagan really set the tone that was carried forward.

Personality wise, defenders of either men would likely concede that tonal and personality wise Carter/Biden both suffer from not being "strong leaders." They just are not bombasts, braggarts, and neither has "swagger." At the time they were elected this was a good thing, but for both men it seems like people decided they didn't like more restrained and quiet leaders almost immediately after casting their ballots.

Inflation was high for both Presidents, as were gas prices, which tend to be very visible economic indicators that upset people.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 08, 2022, 11:41:08 AM
Quote from: Berkut on November 08, 2022, 11:22:38 AMMy kids friends (so far as I can tell) despise the GOP, but they don't look at the Democrats as any kind of saviors either.

Well no they are not 'saviors' but frankly that is a pretty high bar for any political party to clear. I will point out that if any young people care at all about global warming the Democrats did pass as great an alternative energy bill we are likely to see for a long time in their oddly titled anti-inflation bill.

The Democrats will be precisely as good as we make them be. I am a little concerned that this time the Democrats surpassed my expectations for what they were able to do with such a tiny minority and it looks like the voters are not going to reward them for it. That is frustrating to me. When the voters elected all these Democrats back in 2018 I am not exactly sure what it is they were expecting them to do.

The politicians are not getting much direction from public opinion on anything, it just seems to erratically swing back and forth between parties. It doesn't even really seem to respond to economic conditions as the economy was doing really well in 2016 and 2018 yet the ruling parties took big loses in both elections.  It really doesn't seem to matter what happens. We just kind of lurch backwards and forwards without much regard for what the politicians actually do. Which is weird and kind of concerning. If there is no incentive to do well by the people then the incentive becomes...something else.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 08, 2022, 12:18:10 PM
Yes, it is a shame that they don't realise that apathy only perpetuates the cycle.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Oexmelin on November 08, 2022, 12:24:24 PM
Restricting political action to only voting every cycle isn't much more than apathy either.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 12:46:02 PM
Part of the problem frankly is we give voters too many opportunities to voice their displeasure. I think our country would at least have a reduction in problems (none solved completely, of course) if we only voted every 4 years. I'd be perfectly fine with House and Senate terms both being standardized at 4 years and held in sync with the Presidential election.

The theory was staggering it protected us from a "dangerous faction" controlling the country. But in practice countries that have unified elections seem to have less trouble with that than America does. Sure, it was good in 2018 we were able to vote out the Republican House so we could at least put brakes on Trump's shit to some degree. But the reality is a lot of voters seem to have bad attitudes because of a pervasive perception of "no matter who I vote for nothing gets done." They don't understand the civics and process side of it--that the way we structure our government means you can vote a team in one year, but then 2 years later you enable them to be gutted and make it so they can do nothing. Generally I think it would be a lot healthier if Presidents came into office with four years ahead of them facing the consequences of their election. If voters gave them the House and Senate, that's a sign that the President should push aggressively his policies. If they give him a divided government then it means he needs to figure out how to negotiate that for the next four years.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 08, 2022, 12:56:35 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 12:46:02 PMPart of the problem frankly is we give voters too many opportunities to voice their displeasure. I think our country would at least have a reduction in problems (none solved completely, of course) if we only voted every 4 years. I'd be perfectly fine with House and Senate terms both being standardized at 4 years and held in sync with the Presidential election.

The theory was staggering it protected us from a "dangerous faction" controlling the country. But in practice countries that have unified elections seem to have less trouble with that than America does. Sure, it was good in 2018 we were able to vote out the Republican House so we could at least put brakes on Trump's shit to some degree. But the reality is a lot of voters seem to have bad attitudes because of a pervasive perception of "no matter who I vote for nothing gets done." They don't understand the civics and process side of it--that the way we structure our government means you can vote a team in one year, but then 2 years later you enable them to be gutted and make it so they can do nothing. Generally I think it would be a lot healthier if Presidents came into office with four years ahead of them facing the consequences of their election. If voters gave them the House and Senate, that's a sign that the President should push aggressively his policies. If they give him a divided government then it means he needs to figure out how to negotiate that for the next four years.

Sounds like you're arguing for a parliamentary system of government... :whistle:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 08, 2022, 01:07:12 PM
I'm not sure the UK's model is currently crowning itself in glory. It appears to be allowing a moribund party to hang around longer than it should.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 01:10:19 PM
Also a presidential system but maybe yearning to a stable majoritarian legislature is clearly vindicated de Gaulle, not Britain :ph34r:

Edit: Hell, Macron's party just passed their budget without requiring legislative approval which could definitely get rid of the debt ceiling drama.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 08, 2022, 01:10:53 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 08, 2022, 12:24:24 PMRestricting political action to only voting every cycle isn't much more than apathy either.

I'm not sure on the extent to which widespread, increase civic participation would be a net positive. Do you have an examples in mind?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 08, 2022, 01:11:26 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 08, 2022, 01:07:12 PMI'm not sure the UK's model is currently crowning itself in glory. It appears to be allowing a moribund party to hang around longer than it should.

I think pretty much every system of government allows for that, US included.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zoupa on November 08, 2022, 01:14:21 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 08, 2022, 01:10:53 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 08, 2022, 12:24:24 PMRestricting political action to only voting every cycle isn't much more than apathy either.

I'm not sure on the extent to which widespread, increase civic participation would be a net positive. Do you have an examples in mind?

 :huh:

Are you seriously questioning the benefits of an increase in civic participation?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 01:42:09 PM
I mean I am skeptical of such increase when it appears most of the people being brought into the system are extremely uneducated and stupid, yes.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on November 08, 2022, 01:45:11 PM
Jan 6 didn't exactly improve things. Election day is fine.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 08, 2022, 01:55:21 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 08, 2022, 12:24:24 PMRestricting political action to only voting every cycle isn't much more than apathy either.

Yes I probably should be attending city council and School board meetings and all that.

But damn. I do have other things to do.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 02:03:38 PM
Reminds me of the Wilde line that the trouble with socialism is it takes up too many evenings.

I don't think that's the only sort of engagement or action though - campaign groups or, indeed, party activism might be another way.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 08, 2022, 02:33:53 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 02:03:38 PMReminds me of the Wilde line that the trouble with socialism is it takes up too many evenings.

I don't think that's the only sort of engagement or action though - campaign groups or, indeed, party activism might be another way.

No doubt. That is just the kind of engagement I am interested in. The party activism and politicking is more your speed. I want good ideas in government that serve the community, not having big fights over imaginary pedophile rings and secret Antifa cells.

On the other hand imaginary pedophile rings and secret Antifa cells (and leftwing equivalent fear mongering) make great politics and get people to vote and care about stuff. So me going around demanding people stop with bullshit and be reasonable might hurt in political activism.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 02:41:44 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 08, 2022, 02:33:53 PMNo doubt. That is just the kind of engagement I am interested in. The party activism and politicking is more your speed. I want good ideas in government that serve the community, not having big fights over imaginary pedophile rings and secret Antifa cells.

On the other hand imaginary pedophile rings and secret Antifa cells (and leftwing equivalent fear mongering) make great politics and get people to vote and care about stuff. So me going around demanding people stop with bullshit and be reasonable might hurt in political activism.
But the way politics is done in democracies is in response to voters (through campaigns) and parties. I don't really see how you get good ideas in government, in a democracy, in a way that doesn't involve either activism or the parties?

At least unless you're an admirably virtuous billionaire :P

Edit: Also the flaw is in one of your parties which suggests that's the battlefield.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 08, 2022, 02:52:47 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 02:41:44 PMBut the way politics is done in democracies is in response to voters (through campaigns) and parties. I don't really see how you get good ideas in government, in a democracy, in a way that doesn't involve either activism or the parties?

At least unless you're an admirably virtuous billionaire :P

Edit: Also the flaw is in one of your parties which suggests that's the battlefield.

Well my experience in government is that nobody really follows or cares what actually happens in the council rooms. The local media is mostly dead around the country. The local officials are very sensitive to just whatever vibe is going on in the room at the time. If you are there to influence it, it doesn't matter at all really what the voters demanded in the election...to the extent they demanded anything.

The fear mongering gets them to go out there and vote. Not much else.

And yeah obviously the other way to influence the process, and a much more effective way, is just to be a huge stakeholder. But since I am not well...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 03:35:25 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 02:41:44 PMBut the way politics is done in democracies is in response to voters (through campaigns) and parties. I don't really see how you get good ideas in government, in a democracy, in a way that doesn't involve either activism or the parties?

At least unless you're an admirably virtuous billionaire :P

Edit: Also the flaw is in one of your parties which suggests that's the battlefield.

Think tanks and op eds.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 03:42:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 03:35:25 PMThink tanks and op eds.
I'd file think tanks under the admirable billionaire :P
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 04:27:36 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 03:42:38 PMI'd file think tanks under the admirable billionaire :P

Oh, I didn't know we were doing class warfare in this thread too.

I challenge you to name one good idea that has come from the grass roots, the plebs, the groundlings, teh people.  The masses don't do good ideas, they do mantras, causes, slogans.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 08, 2022, 04:33:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 04:27:36 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 03:42:38 PMI'd file think tanks under the admirable billionaire :P

Oh, I didn't know we were doing class warfare in this thread too.

I challenge you to name one good idea that has come from the grass roots, the plebs, the groundlings, teh people.  The masses don't do good ideas, they do mantras, causes, slogans.
Defund the police! 

That was a great idea!
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 08, 2022, 04:35:22 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 04:27:36 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 03:42:38 PMI'd file think tanks under the admirable billionaire :P

Oh, I didn't know we were doing class warfare in this thread too.

I challenge you to name one good idea that has come from the grass roots, the plebs, the groundlings, teh people.  The masses don't do good ideas, they do mantras, causes, slogans.

Prohibition. :P
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on November 08, 2022, 04:36:44 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 04:27:36 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 03:42:38 PMI'd file think tanks under the admirable billionaire :P

Oh, I didn't know we were doing class warfare in this thread too.

I challenge you to name one good idea that has come from the grass roots, the plebs, the groundlings, teh people.  The masses don't do good ideas, they do mantras, causes, slogans.

Abolitionism.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 04:49:45 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 08, 2022, 04:36:44 PMAbolitionism.

Good one.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 04:52:17 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 04:27:36 PMOh, I didn't know we were doing class warfare in this thread too.
I mean I'm not the one saying democracy's a charade for the plebs and that what really matters is basically the elite level of politics in think tanks and newspapers :P

But yeah I think the funding networks behind think tanks/the elite thought level of politics is very important. It is also disproportionately - like all philanthropy - populated by the very rich or their legacies. I think it's telling that stating that fact is somehow class warfare.

I don't even think there's any judgement in it - as I say these are the admirable, virtuous billionaires. Like all philanthropy there's some extraordinary, in this case, intellectual legacies and tributes because of that wealth.

QuoteI challenge you to name one good idea that has come from the grass roots, the plebs, the groundlings, teh people.  The masses don't do good ideas, they do mantras, causes, slogans.
So that's not quite what I'm saying, my point is the way we do politics in a democracy is through parties and activists. We can be snooty about them but they're doing a fuckton more to save American democracy than most people, if for no other reason than that they're it's bloodstream.

But for good ideas from activists - expanding the franchise, abolitionism, paid politicians so it's not a hobby for the already rich, civil rights, gay rights, paid annual leave, limits on working hours, labour rights. More or less anything on either side - the ideas aren't necessarily good but they don't happen without that engagement by everyday, normal people. I don't think Roe v Wade gets overturned without activists and people getting involved and changing their party. These were not gifts or curses bestowed by highly educated think tankers and op-ed writers.

It's also a way to engage civically, be involved in the political process without requiring you to change career and become a think tanker somehow :P
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Savonarola on November 08, 2022, 04:58:19 PM
There was an enormous line today at my polling place; especially considering that the polls show the up-ticket races aren't even close (and, in my deeply red district, the down ticket ones are foregone conclusions.) 
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Savonarola on November 08, 2022, 05:08:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 08, 2022, 02:52:47 PMWell my experience in government is that nobody really follows or cares what actually happens in the council rooms. The local media is mostly dead around the country. The local officials are very sensitive to just whatever vibe is going on in the room at the time. If you are there to influence it, it doesn't matter at all really what the voters demanded in the election...to the extent they demanded anything.

The fear mongering gets them to go out there and vote. Not much else.

And yeah obviously the other way to influence the process, and a much more effective way, is just to be a huge stakeholder. But since I am not well...

I've been on the wrong side of many, many zoning boards and city councils.  I don't blame anyone for not wanting to get involved in that; but, given your profession, there must be power advisory boards that you could be involved with (if you want to be part of The ProcessTM)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 05:18:09 PM
Just read that Pelosi is seriously considering retirement after the mid terms.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on November 08, 2022, 06:24:30 PM
This has been the most stealthy election I remember personally.  I live in Jersey City and work in Manhattan, and between those two places, I would have had no idea that today was an election day, or for the last month I would have no idea that election day was coming. 

Considering that NY could actually get a Republican governor, I find that bewildering.  Maybe I've done too good of a job disconnecting myself from the social media craziness, but surely somebody should've been accosting me near the subway entrance or exit? :unsure:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on November 08, 2022, 06:26:47 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 05:18:09 PMJust read that Pelosi is seriously considering retirement after the mid terms.
I think it would be a shame, but it has to happen sometime.  On the one hand, Democrats need politicians who know how power works, but on the other hand they need someone who was born after WWI ended.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 08, 2022, 06:30:13 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 05:18:09 PMJust read that Pelosi is seriously considering retirement after the mid terms.

Yeah it is time for the next generation of septagenarians to take over.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on November 08, 2022, 06:34:12 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 05:18:09 PMJust read that Pelosi is seriously considering retirement after the mid terms.
The attack on her husband rattled her.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on November 08, 2022, 06:34:52 PM
I voted.  For all the good it will do.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 06:35:02 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2022, 06:24:30 PMConsidering that NY could actually get a Republican governor, I find that bewildering.  Maybe I've done too good of a job disconnecting myself from the social media craziness, but surely somebody should've been accosting me near the subway entrance or exit? :unsure:

Which other media do you consult? Any local and/or regional news outlets?

Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2022, 06:26:47 PMI think it would be a shame, but it has to happen sometime.  On the one hand, Democrats need politicians who know how power works, but on the other hand they need someone who was born after WWI ended.

Well, if the Dems lose control of the House her relinquishing the role of Speaker makes for a good moment to take a bow and retire from the scene. I mean, she's 82, by any account she should have already retired a good while ago.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 06:36:06 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 08, 2022, 06:34:12 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 05:18:09 PMJust read that Pelosi is seriously considering retirement after the mid terms.
The attack on her husband rattled her.

Apparently it was a big factor, yes. For what I read she was considering it for a while but the attack made her to finally decide for it.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 06:40:43 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 06:35:02 PMWell, if the Dems lose control of the House her relinquishing the role of Speaker makes for a good moment to take a bow and retire from the scene. I mean, she's 82, by any account she should have already retired a good while ago.
Yeah - although in a way it's sad to go like this.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on November 08, 2022, 06:49:42 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 06:35:02 PMWhich other media do you consult? Any local and/or regional news outlets?
No, maybe that's the problem.  I limit myself to Google News, and I filtered trash like Fox News out of my feed.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 06:59:22 PM
State of politics in the US that I saw this and thought it was better than I expected :(
QuoteSteven Portnoy
@stevenportnoy
PRELIMINARY CBS NEWS EXIT POLL -- NATIONAL:

Do you think that Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020?

Yes 63%
No 34%
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 07:30:59 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 04:52:17 PMI mean I'm not the one saying democracy's a charade for the plebs and that what really matters is basically the elite level of politics in think tanks and newspapers :P

But yeah I think the funding networks behind think tanks/the elite thought level of politics is very important. It is also disproportionately - like all philanthropy - populated by the very rich or their legacies. I think it's telling that stating that fact is somehow class warfare.

I don't even think there's any judgement in it - as I say these are the admirable, virtuous billionaires. Like all philanthropy there's some extraordinary, in this case, intellectual legacies and tributes because of that wealth.
I was mostly talking smack, but in the style of a French police interrogation, the petulant manner in which you responded betrays your true Jacobin colors.

As a digression on talking smack, my current tenure as unpaid karaoke DJ at the local Rainbow Bar(tm) has made me reflect on the differences and similarities between talking smack (jockish, blackish) and throwing shade (gay).  Do UK gays throw shade?  It might be hard to tell in a country where taking the piss is the national sport.  Do you partake in gay culture?

QuoteSo that's not quite what I'm saying, my point is the way we do politics in a democracy is through parties and activists. We can be snooty about them but they're doing a fuckton more to save American democracy than most people, if for no other reason than that they're it's bloodstream.

But for good ideas from activists - expanding the franchise, abolitionism, paid politicians so it's not a hobby for the already rich, civil rights, gay rights, paid annual leave, limits on working hours, labour rights. More or less anything on either side - the ideas aren't necessarily good but they don't happen without that engagement by everyday, normal people. I don't think Roe v Wade gets overturned without activists and people getting involved and changing their party. These were not gifts or curses bestowed by highly educated think tankers and op-ed writers.

It's also a way to engage civically, be involved in the political process without requiring you to change career and become a think tanker somehow :P

I suppose this points out the somewhat artificial distinction between policies on the one hand and angry slogans on the other, both of which "ideas" span.

For example suffrage and abolition, these are both causes that contain their own fix, their own requested remedy.

But there are also clear cases of a clear difference between the problem and fix.  Income inequality and BLM come to mind.  Climate change too, although climate change is interesting because the cause was led by scientists.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: mongers on November 08, 2022, 07:33:01 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 08, 2022, 06:34:52 PMI voted.  For all the good it will do.

Still the :cool: thing to do.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 07:45:30 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 08, 2022, 06:49:42 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 08, 2022, 06:35:02 PMWhich other media do you consult? Any local and/or regional news outlets?
No, maybe that's the problem.  I limit myself to Google News, and I filtered trash like Fox News out of my feed.

Well, there you have it. You've insulated yourself so much you've ended up in a bubble, but this time of ignorance of your immediate surroundings.

It somehow reminds me of my own father. He's long ago disavowed our local paper because he thinks it's not good enough to be used as fish wrap, and he never watches the local news because he finds them too parochial, so all his news sources are, at best, national, that when he's not even reading foreign newspapers (something that drives my mother nuts). Then he's absolutely surprised and flabbergasted when something happens in our city that he had not  heard about, when it had been talked about and discussed for months previously, just not in any place where he would have noticed it.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 07:48:52 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 06:59:22 PMState of politics in the US that I saw this and thought it was better than I expected :(
QuoteSteven Portnoy
@stevenportnoy
PRELIMINARY CBS NEWS EXIT POLL -- NATIONAL:

Do you think that Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020?

Yes 63%
No 34%

Worse than I expected.  Last i saw a while ago was 60% of Republicans. 

It's almost as if swing voters are thinking they'll vote Republican because of inflation, and since we're voting Republican we might as well embrace their full crazyness.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on November 08, 2022, 07:51:19 PM
My kids and I voted for Connelly in VA. He's not likely to lose but it's still good to vote. Met my state delegate there and had a nice chat.  :)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on November 08, 2022, 07:53:28 PM
The problem I see with local news is that it's mostly about inducing anxiety in you.  That's the real media bias, IMO.  It's much more newsworthy to talk about a schoolgirl that got kidnapped and murdered than all the schoolgirls who got home safely, but it doesn't help with giving people the right perspective.  There are a lot of people in this world, something bad is happening to someone all the time.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 07:55:02 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 07:30:59 PMAs a digression on talking smack, my current tenure as unpaid karaoke DJ at the local Rainbow Bar(tm) has made me reflect on the differences and similarities between talking smack (jockish, blackish) and throwing shade (gay).  Do UK gays throw shade?  It might be hard to tell in a country where taking the piss is the national sport.  Do you partake in gay culture?
:lol: I partake :sleep:

I personally think it's the jockish bit of American culture that travels least well here - it's the one that seems most alien/peculiarly American (maybe because the lack of people caring about high school or college sport?). I think Brit gays do and often have the same jokes anyway due to Drag Race etc. I think British gay culture is a little less serious/cool/glamourous and a little more camp/end-of-the-pier (but I think that might be true of all of British society v the US :lol: :ph34r:). But you're right it's just another level to the general piss-taking.

QuoteI suppose this points out the somewhat artificial distinction between policies on the one hand and angry slogans on the other, both of which "ideas" span.
As, you say, I think in a democracy it's an artificial distinction. But I just think the angry slogans are actually the essential part of politics in a democratic society. If it's just policies you're in a dictatorship - possibly a terribly benign one with wonderful policies, but not a democracy.

It seems weird that the bit of politics that is most looked down on is the bit about voters.

QuoteFor example suffrage and abolition, these are both causes that contain their own fix, their own requested remedy.

But there are also clear cases of a clear difference between the problem and fix.  Income inequality and BLM come to mind.  Climate change too, although climate change is interesting because the cause was led by scientists.
Sure and there have been fights about income inequality as long as there has been democratic politics and there probably will be until the end of time. But if it's something you care about - I'd recommend getting involved.

BLM and climate change both seem to me a little too soon to tell - I certainly don't think we're going back to attitudes even ten years ago about race or climate. They've not achieved all they want but I think to a large extent they're movements that are here to stay and have already made a change.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 08:06:51 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 07:55:02 PMAs, you say, I think in a democracy it's an artificial distinction. But I just think the angry slogans are actually the essential part of politics in a democratic society. If it's just policies you're in a dictatorship - possibly a terribly benign one with wonderful policies, but not a democracy.

It seems weird that the bit of politics that is most looked down on is the bit about voters.

Disagree.  Voting without the angry slogans is still democracy.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 08:21:35 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 08:06:51 PMDisagree.  Voting without the angry slogans is still democracy.
Yeah and the immaculate conception is still a pregnancy. I just wouldn't use it to set expectations.

I think the policies create the divisions - they're not artificial. We wouldn't all come together and agree on everything because people have profoundly different values, goals, ideas, beliefs (it's why I'm a little dubious whenever people call for citizens' assemblies as a solution to everything). That's the point of democracy - it allows for opposing visions and ideologies to operate within the same system and exchange power peacefully within that system. The polarisation is to an extent inherent in the system because it's about accommodating difference peacefully.

That's why I think the decline in loser's consent is so worrying in the US - to my mind the GOP are opting out of the core of that system and democracy. Their direction is that their opponents are cheating and too dangerous to allow the system to operate as normal/if it was operating they would win; that in turn makes Democrats raise exactly the same issues, but accurately. I don't know how a society gets out of that situation.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 09:51:15 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 08, 2022, 08:21:35 PMYeah and the immaculate conception is still a pregnancy. I just wouldn't use it to set expectations.

I think the policies create the divisions - they're not artificial. We wouldn't all come together and agree on everything because people have profoundly different values, goals, ideas, beliefs (it's why I'm a little dubious whenever people call for citizens' assemblies as a solution to everything). That's the point of democracy - it allows for opposing visions and ideologies to operate within the same system and exchange power peacefully within that system. The polarisation is to an extent inherent in the system because it's about accommodating difference peacefully.

That's why I think the decline in loser's consent is so worrying in the US - to my mind the GOP are opting out of the core of that system and democracy. Their direction is that their opponents are cheating and too dangerous to allow the system to operate as normal/if it was operating they would win; that in turn makes Democrats raise exactly the same issues, but accurately. I don't know how a society gets out of that situation.

I'm not entirely sure where you're going.

I was contesting your assertion that without angry slogans it's a dictatorship, whereas I think voting is the one necessary component of democracy.

As best as I can figure, you're going on about angry slogans being an indication of differing opinions and perspectives, whereas I'm saying differing opinions are a given and a democratic society adjudicates those differences at the ballot box.

****

Reports I'm hearing on NPR and seeing on CNN look dire.  Red wave.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 10:11:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 09:51:15 PMvoting is the one necessary component of democracy

I believe every modern dictatorship features voting.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 10:16:26 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 10:11:38 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 09:51:15 PMvoting is the one necessary component of democracy

I believe every modern dictatorship features voting.

I don't think Saudi Arabia does? Then again, maybe it's not very modern/
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 10:16:55 PM
Saudi Arabia isn't a dictatorship, and they do have local elections.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 10:21:01 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 10:16:55 PMSaudi Arabia isn't a dictatorship, and they do have local elections.

I stand corrected.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 10:24:20 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 09:51:15 PMI'm not entirely sure where you're going.

I think Sheilbh's point is that democracy without angry slogans is a nice ideal, but not something that happens in actual reality.

Which I guess raises the question - are there examples of functioning democracies where there's been an absence of angry slogans (at least for some period of time)?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: FunkMonk on November 08, 2022, 10:28:21 PM
We elected our state's first black governor and legalized marijuana. Pretty good night for funkmonk.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 10:42:18 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 10:11:38 PMI believe every modern dictatorship features voting.

I did not say necessary and sufficient.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 10:43:39 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 10:24:20 PMI think Sheilbh's point is that democracy without angry slogans is a nice ideal, but not something that happens in actual reality.

Except he didn't say a nice ideal, he said without them you have dictatorship.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on November 08, 2022, 10:45:58 PM
Pot legalization is winning here.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 08, 2022, 11:08:43 PM
I think pot legalization won't lose many statewide referendums, some of the hardcore anti-pot Southern states have no initiative process so it will likely remain illegal there indefinitely. But even somewhat MAGA Republicans are fairly against the whole pot criminalization regime.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 11:18:27 PM
Do you get stoned Raz?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 11:29:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 10:43:39 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 10:24:20 PMI think Sheilbh's point is that democracy without angry slogans is a nice ideal, but not something that happens in actual reality.

Except he didn't say a nice ideal, he said without them you have dictatorship.

I believed he clarified with: "yeah and the immaculate conception is still a pregnancy. I just wouldn't use it to set expectations."
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on November 08, 2022, 11:53:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 11:18:27 PMDo you get stoned Raz?
Nope.  Never.  Raz is a square.  Besides it probably would mess with my meds.  Still, too many people have been hand their lives fucked up my that stupid law.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 12:13:38 AM
While it is far too early to call control, results this far suggest red wave simply isn't in the cards. GOP are slightly favored to take House and Senate is toss up—I would wager they win both, but it's very close. Will be a lot of analysis to be done.

It appears GOP have significantly underperformed both their polling and the midterm conventional norms.

I am incidentally down $3000 as I am doing some election gambling and had backed a lot of R.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 12:22:21 AM
Oz has basically lost PA.

CBS PA exit poll has 36% of voters said abortion was their most important issue—largest issue in the State. Inflation was second at 28%. That almost certainly has cost Oz the election.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 12:27:09 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 08, 2022, 11:53:55 PMRaz is a square.

"Straight edge" is the cool way to say that.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: frunk on November 09, 2022, 12:32:14 AM
I think this calls for some Nyango Star:

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on November 09, 2022, 12:35:02 AM
Quote from: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 11:29:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 08, 2022, 10:43:39 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 08, 2022, 10:24:20 PMI think Sheilbh's point is that democracy without angry slogans is a nice ideal, but not something that happens in actual reality.

Except he didn't say a nice ideal, he said without them you have dictatorship.

I believed he clarified with: "yeah and the immaculate conception is still a pregnancy. I just wouldn't use it to set expectations."

The Immaculate Conception refers to Mary, not Jesus.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 01:11:26 AM
QuoteA short while ago, Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor in Arizona, spoke to supporters. Lake is currently behind Democratic candidate and Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs — with 52 percent of the expected votes reporting, Hobbs leads 57 percent to Lake's 43 percent.

This is cool.  From 538.  Time stamped 12:39.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Solmyr on November 09, 2022, 02:13:44 AM
Lots of election results denial incoming?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on November 09, 2022, 02:16:13 AM
Looks like Abbott and De Santis retain the governor posts in TX and FL. Though Arizona looks like it might flip? (Which the Rpublicans will of course fight tooth and nail if it were to happen.)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on November 09, 2022, 02:18:39 AM
Heh, results are better than expected. Looks like there's a decent chance of holding the senate, even.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Maladict on November 09, 2022, 02:26:10 AM
Another Georgia runoff?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on November 09, 2022, 02:36:37 AM
Seen on Twitter

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhGak4pWQAAAks1?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 09, 2022, 03:27:36 AM
So, it wasn't quite the red wave as expected? Just a red trickle? Or not even that?

I'm reading that the trumpier candidates didn't do as well as expected and the Republicans that did well were the ones that set their own path. Do the Republicans have a Trump problem now?

I'm also seeing that Lauren Boebert might loose her House seat, so at least's that's a win for all parts.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 03:28:46 AM
NBC calls Fetterman over Oz.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 09, 2022, 03:43:51 AM
Also apparently Trump is threatening De Sanctis with releasing negative info about him if he runs against him for the GOP nomination in 2024.  :lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on November 09, 2022, 03:50:01 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 09, 2022, 03:43:51 AMAlso apparently Trump is threatening De Sanctis with releasing negative info about him if he runs against him for the GOP nomination in 2024.  :lol:

Isn't it common knowledge that DeSantis is a Republican?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 09, 2022, 05:39:18 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 08, 2022, 01:14:21 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 08, 2022, 01:10:53 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on November 08, 2022, 12:24:24 PMRestricting political action to only voting every cycle isn't much more than apathy either.

I'm not sure on the extent to which widespread, increase civic participation would be a net positive. Do you have an examples in mind?

 :huh:

Are you seriously questioning the benefits of an increase in civic participation?

I think we always hold it as a truth but in line with what OvB said, I'm not sure that more day-to-day involvement in politics would be a panacea.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 09, 2022, 06:12:38 AM
DeSantis won reelection in a landslide while some of Trump's most prominent candidates lost, so the fight between them is going to get heated
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: FunkMonk on November 09, 2022, 06:41:28 AM
Seems the Rs barely made a dent. The Trumpy candidates got their asses handed to them. Rs should still take the House but with such a small majority it might be impossible for them to get anything passed.

Meanwhile, DeSantis has turned Florida into Texas.  :hmm:

Apparently the Democrats took complete control of the state government of Michigan. First time in 40 years :hmm:

Seems all the ballot measures to protect abortion access won as well.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: FunkMonk on November 09, 2022, 07:11:23 AM
https://twitter.com/MikeSington/status/1590284025234862081?t=1Z7pMA42QNENCXoRSV-vEA&s=19

QuoteFox News on the election results: "This is an absolute disaster for the Republican Party."

 :lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on November 09, 2022, 07:20:01 AM
I haven't done a deep dive yet but a lot of commentary along those lines of things going very well for sane people.
Looking at the numbers it still looks pretty nasty for the dems? Or are there enough sensible republicans left to keep things going?

I wonder whether we might have a situation similar to the UK with brexit where in much of the country you can't publicly express you're against it for fear of being a social pariah (in America, with added guns); you're expected to tow the Trumpist line even if you can see its a load of bollocks and come election time, put that into action.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 07:37:59 AM
Nah, this night is unabashedly good for the Democrats across the board. America has an almost psychotic electorate, prone to voting against the party in power with an almost pathological zeal.

Bill Clinton who sailed to reelection in 1996, and was a fairly popular President throughout, lost 54 seats in the 1994 midterms.

This is an unpopular Dem President, one who I know very few people viewed with enthusiasm in 2020. He was basically the choice because everyone felt the entire rest of the Dem primary lineup were too far left for the country, so we get a guy who turned 80 in his first two years as POTUS. This is an economy that while not as bad as the pundits make it out to be, is struggling with inflation and gas prices, two things that are almost always fatal to the party in power.

Losing control of both Houses in the midterms is an entirely normal, and fairly routine part of our system. What is unexpected is polling was indicating a significant chance of a very large "red wave", meaning potentially 40 seat Republican majority in the House. Instead, the Democrats if I had to guess go on to barely losing the House and the Senate remains genuinely too close to call, with four races that may take a few days to determine and one of those four will likely have to be ran again as a runoff.

One might wonder "okay, but the Democrats still lost, isn't this the end?" Well, how you lose matters, right? If the Republicans had a dream of holding Biden hostage with the debt limit to force deep cuts to Medicare and Social Security...that scheme is immensely harder to pull off if you have say, a 5 seat majority in the lower chamber. Simply because fucking with the debt ceiling is seen as deeply undesirable even by some traditional Republican constituencies (Wall Street and the Chamber of Commerce style Republicans.) Such a small Republican majority undermines McCarthy's ability to do really bad things like this because you'll likely have enough moderate Republicans to agree to support the Democrats in Congress on votes like the debt ceiling.

The way a lot of races went down some of the worst and most extreme Trumpy candidates very seriously underperformed. DeSantis meanwhile significantly overperformed. If you are Trump who was expecting to bully your way to a coronation, the nomination now seems at least like it could be seriously contested by DeSantis. Primarily because the country itself is suggesting it will continue to vote Democrat even when fundamentals predict it wouldn't if the Republicans are going to continue embracing Trump.

While it will be weeks before we have the kind of data that will tell us anything definitively, it seems entirely likely that Generation Z is going to emerge as a stronger political force, earlier, than anyone had expected. They broke harder for the Democrats than I believe that age cohort has ever done--+28 D is devastating for the future of the Republican party. Particularly when it appears this spread is over fundamental issues like abortion rights on which the Republicans have few options for moderating their positions without imploding their own coalition.

The GOP message continues to find resonance with the boomers and the small numbers of people alive from prior generations. Every two years more of those people leave the world and more of the youngest generation matriculate into voting age. This process was expected to take 10 years or more which meant even if it eventually worked to the Democrats advantage, it left the Republicans a large gap of time with which to dismantle our democracy. Now that is in doubt. With numbers like these it is reasonable to conclude a Trump lead Republican ticket in 2024--when, by the way, the electorate will almost certainly be younger and more diverse (midterm electorates are always older and whiter), will quite potentially be a serious weakness to the GOP.

This is good for reasons beyond blue team red team shit--it is good because for the craven operators in the Republican party who have embraced the party's worst instincts and ideas because of popular wisdom doing so was necessary for election now have a new path. If you actually see some level of moderation of Republican candidates in future cycles that is huge for the future of the country. In our system the idea of one party going away was not realistic, so actually seeing evidence that the dangerous party may need to consider moderating to protect its electoral chances is an extremely good indicator.

Probably the biggest take away from this is the Democrats seem poised to have a fighting chance to continue to resist the fascist take over of the country. It is still, depressingly, going to be a close fought battle whose outcome is uncertain--but this night's results at least suggest it won't be a blowout.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2022, 07:52:07 AM
Good news is that there a solid majority of Americans prepared to come to vote to defend democratic norms.  Bad news is that there is a solid 40%+ minority ready and willing see those norms torched if they don't get their way.  That's still Weimar Germany levels.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on November 09, 2022, 07:53:58 AM
If it's any consolation Weimar didn't last long.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 08:05:13 AM
I think a big issue is most of the country doesn't really understand democratic norms. We have a very uninformed electorate and many who don't understand the principles on which democracy functions. This is not just a Republican problem, I think even a significant number of Democrat voters are fairly ignorant / ambivalent of this side of thing. I think abortion very likely helped the Democrats a lot this year, and general distaste for Trump as an individual, I unfortunately don't think Bill Maher and other liberal scolds warning about democratic norms explains much of this (just my guess.)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 09, 2022, 09:07:52 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhH8EbxXEAA5LsE?format=jpg&name=small)

Feels like it has awfully similar feel to Der Führer
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on November 09, 2022, 09:18:51 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 09, 2022, 06:41:28 AMSeems all the ballot measures to protect abortion access won as well.
Yeah, I'm shocked Kentucky voted that abortion ban constitutional amendment down.  Figured it was a foregone conclusion it'd win.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on November 09, 2022, 09:24:10 AM
Also, to me these results say that if Trump wins the Republican nomination in 2024, he's pretty much guaranteed to lose the general.  I assumed he would even before last night, but I feel like that's solidified now.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: FunkMonk on November 09, 2022, 09:26:53 AM
https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1590341634709131265?t=LwT5CJNx7wvXcinf1TFc1w&s=19

Quote"Trump is livid" and "screaming at everyone," after last night's disappointing midterm results for GOP, according to a Trump adviser. The adviser went on to slam the former president's handpicked contenders: "they were all bad candidates." "Candidates matter," the adviser said.

This adviser said it's unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because "it's too humiliating to delay." But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point.

lol
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on November 09, 2022, 09:33:33 AM
 :nelson:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on November 09, 2022, 09:37:20 AM
Quote from: Caliga on November 09, 2022, 09:18:51 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 09, 2022, 06:41:28 AMSeems all the ballot measures to protect abortion access won as well.
Yeah, I'm shocked Kentucky voted that abortion ban constitutional amendment down.  Figured it was a foregone conclusion it'd win.

TN abolished slavery too! It's not all bad  :P
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 10:20:39 AM
One of my takeaways from last night is...man, if the GOP could even slightly moderate on a few issues they would be damn near unbeatable. But it seems like they have almost no willingness to do that.

I think Democrats have a much harder problem in terms of trying to "tone shift", because they are an incredibly diverse coalition of interests, so some tone shifts would alienate key constituencies. The Democrats best option is to try and de-nationalize congressional races, which has been I think a better state of affairs for them in the past. That's much harder to do though because it's hard when most people are informed by nationalized forms of media (be it cable news or social), and local media is largely gutted throughout the country.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 09, 2022, 10:27:25 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 10:20:39 AMOne of my takeaways from last night is...man, if the GOP could even slightly moderate on a few issues they would be damn near unbeatable. But it seems like they have almost no willingness to do that.
I don't really agree - or rather, I don't think it is really the point.

The GOP don't have issues anymore, they have anger and personalities. So what is there to moderate on, exactly?

If I was in charge of the GOP, and I wanted to do what you are describing...what would that actually look like? It's not like they have an actual policy to moderate. The only thing I could think of would be immigration, where there is some kind of semblance of an actual policy to moderate.

Abortion maybe? How do you moderate that issue at this point?

Honest questions. And I am asking them because I think it is critical to the optimistically sane future where the GOP somehow moves itself back towards being an actual governing, functioning political body rather then a populist cult front for some pseudo strongman.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 10:59:41 AM
Rats - I thought independent Evan McMullin would pull it off in Utah.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on November 09, 2022, 11:03:07 AM
Agreed.
The problem with "if the republicans were moderate on x they'd win" is its the same sort of thing as "what if Hitler wasn't anti semitic?".
Take that away and he loses all his guiding force and wouldn't be half as successful


Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 07:37:59 AMNah, this night is unabashedly good for the Democrats across the board. America has an almost psychotic electorate, prone to voting against the party in power with an almost pathological zeal..

Probably the biggest take away from this is the Democrats seem poised to have a fighting chance to continue to resist the fascist take over of the country. It is still, depressingly, going to be a close fought battle whose outcome is uncertain--but this night's results at least suggest it won't be a blowout.

Thanks. Nice summary which is encouraging.

Whilst I'm a socialist and obviously want an actual left winger with a positive global outlook in charge there, top priority is obviously avoiding a literal fascist to absolutely fuck things up - as a fucked up America is a fucked up world, and in light of climate change, Ukraine, China, etc... It's a critical time for this.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 09, 2022, 12:14:27 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 10:20:39 AMOne of my takeaways from last night is...man, if the GOP could even slightly moderate on a few issues they would be damn near unbeatable. But it seems like they have almost no willingness to do that.
Agreed - and I've said before but I think DeSantis is a real risk. More competent than Trump, actually going through the Orbanist playbook of using state power to enforce cultural norms but presents as more of a "normal" politician.

Overall though it seems about as good as it could have gone for the Democrats and as bad as it could have gone for Trump.

QuoteI believed he clarified with: "yeah and the immaculate conception is still a pregnancy. I just wouldn't use it to set expectations."
Yeah and also my starting point was if you want to do more politics than just voting, or you want to participate civically joining campaigns about things you care about or parties is a way of doing that. Again I think it's striking that it's elided with "angry slogans" and futility because, in my view, the people who've been campaigning and activists are doing more for American democracy than most - including seeing this result.

I don't think the problem in American politics is angry slogans, or activists, or democratic excess - I think it's the Republican party backing away from the democratic system.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 09, 2022, 12:20:16 PM
Incidentally total aside - I've always liked Biden (although I was 90% won over by the Onion parody) and I get the issues with him and don't think he should run in 2024....But I think he's building a record as, quietly, a very effective leader.

I think the IRA (:lol:) is really significant in breaking the deadlock on climate in the US, these midterms, foreign policy with Ukraine and China (plus a bit of industrial policy with chips) - and it strikes me as a pretty impressive record given the votes he has in the House and Senate and the wider context.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 12:31:41 PM
DeSantis is by far the most politically savvy of that faction of Republicans. Note that he has essentially stayed out of take any strong public stances on abortion--I should clarify, he is orthodox pro-life as all Republicans are required to be, but he hasn't come out big on post-Dobbs legislation or full bans. The situation with abortion in Florida is complex as there is a State constitutional amendment enshrining right to privacy, and the State legislature has only been pushing a ban at 15 weeks (which FWIW, is more liberal than several countries in Western Europe, for a little frame of reference.) DeSantis seems to know which culture wars actually are net winners and which aren't.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 09, 2022, 12:37:29 PM
I assume Sarah Huckabee Sanders is the daughter of Mike Huckabee and Bernie Sanders?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 12:41:39 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 09, 2022, 12:37:29 PMI assume Sarah Huckabee Sanders is the daughter of Mike Huckabee and Bernie Sanders?

I'm not quite sure who taught you about the birds and the bees, but it might be time for a bit of a refresher...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 09, 2022, 01:05:42 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 12:41:39 PMI'm not quite sure who taught you about the birds and the bees, but it might be time for a bit of a refresher...

It's 2022 man, a girl can have two dads.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Savonarola on November 09, 2022, 01:42:28 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 09, 2022, 03:43:51 AMAlso apparently Trump is threatening De Sanctis with releasing negative info about him if he runs against him for the GOP nomination in 2024.  :lol:

He's also got a new witty nickname for him "Desanctimonious;" and has accused Casey Desantis (Ron's wife) of running his campaign.  (I think that's supposed to be a bad thing.  Say what you like about Trump, no one has ever accused Melania of being the brains behind the operation.)

Even stranger, Biden, when here campaigning for Charlie Crist, called Desantis "Trump incarnate."  I'm not sure if Biden believes Trump is incorporeal, or that Trump has transcended to this material plane so that he and his avatar can exist simultaneously; like, say, a meetup between Vishnu and Krishna.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on November 09, 2022, 01:50:18 PM
Trump needs to workshop that DeSanctis nickname, "Desanctimonious" is far too laboured.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 02:01:16 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 09, 2022, 01:50:18 PMTrump needs to workshop that DeSanctis nickname, "Desanctimonious" is far too laboured.

I like it.

You have to check out this ad he released, which literally says he was sent by God to be a "fighter" for the people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9oTBA-MvZk

You can tell though that Trump himself didn't come up with DeSanctimonius though.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on November 09, 2022, 02:09:01 PM
I dearly hope for a Trump/ De Santis bloodbath that makes de Santis just as thoroughly tainted as the orange man.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 02:18:07 PM
https://www.theonion.com/smiling-fetterman-asks-oz-if-he-d-mind-slowly-repeating-1849763117

QuoteSmiling Fetterman Asks Oz If He'd Mind Slowly Repeating Concession For 5th Time

PITTSBURGH–Speaking to the Republican candidate over the phone early Wednesday morning, a smiling John Fetterman reportedly asked Mehmet Oz if he would mind slowly repeating his concession for the fifth time. "I don't know if you knew this, but I've been experiencing some auditory processing difficulties–would you mind repeating yourself again?" said Fetterman, who settled into an armchair as the phone call with his defeated opponent passed the 45-minute mark. "I'm sorry, I didn't quite get that. A little slower please. You said something about losing? I just want to be absolutely certain I'm hearing this right." At press time, Fetterman suggested that perhaps he could accept the concession in person if he were ever in New Jersey.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tamas on November 09, 2022, 03:00:52 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 02:01:16 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 09, 2022, 01:50:18 PMTrump needs to workshop that DeSanctis nickname, "Desanctimonious" is far too laboured.

I like it.

You have to check out this ad he released, which literally says he was sent by God to be a "fighter" for the people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9oTBA-MvZk

You can tell though that Trump himself didn't come up with DeSanctimonius though.


Woa, woa. Are you claiming this is an actual DeSantis ad, and not a parody?

OMG and you guys thought Trump was bad, wait until this guy is your President.  :lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 03:07:02 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2022, 03:00:52 PMWoa, woa. Are you claiming this is an actual DeSantis ad, and not a parody?

OMG and you guys thought Trump was bad, wait until this guy is your President.  :lol:

Actual ad. -_-

And while I get and appreciate the "Well at least he isn't Trump" sentiment, De Santis is the guy who flew migrants from Texas (not even his home state) and dropped them off at Martha's Vineyard by lying to them and not notifying anyone...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Maximus on November 09, 2022, 04:22:16 PM
DeSantis is the bigger threat; has been for several years. He's Trump, but more competent.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 04:25:39 PM
Putin propogandist Vladimir Solovyov speculates that the withdrawl from Kherson was only announced today so as to avoid giving Biden and the Democrats any good news prior to the election.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-media-sent-reeling-over-us-midterm-election-results
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 04:38:36 PM
The Russkies have a poor read on America if they think foreign policy moves our politics much, our people are almost criminally indifferent to it.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 04:40:19 PM
I kind of wonder if this isn't the end of Trump's dominance of the republican party. His candidates really sucked and probably kept republicans from a senate with a decent majority. Dr. Oz lost to a stroke victim having trouble speaking, Masters couldn't even get republican funding, people like Vance and Walker were well behind any other republicans in their states...

Republicans have tolerated stuff like 1/6 but making fun of DeSantis before an election and getting Dr. Oz into a general election may have crossed the line.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 04:41:23 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 04:38:36 PMThe Russkies have a poor read on America if they think foreign policy moes our politics much, our people are almost criminally indifferent to it.

Biden's numbers went noticeably down during the disaster that was leaving Afghanistan.

A Russian withdrawal from Kherson last week, together with a triumphant Ukrainian seizure of the city, could give a small bump (and hurt those saying "no more aid to Ukraine").
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zoupa on November 09, 2022, 04:43:33 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2022, 03:00:52 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 02:01:16 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 09, 2022, 01:50:18 PMTrump needs to workshop that DeSanctis nickname, "Desanctimonious" is far too laboured.

I like it.

You have to check out this ad he released, which literally says he was sent by God to be a "fighter" for the people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9oTBA-MvZk

You can tell though that Trump himself didn't come up with DeSanctimonius though.


Woa, woa. Are you claiming this is an actual DeSantis ad, and not a parody?

OMG and you guys thought Trump was bad, wait until this guy is your President.  :lol:

The US is not a serious country anymore. Half the population is uneducated retards.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 04:44:09 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 04:40:19 PMI kind of wonder if this isn't the end of Trump's dominance of the republican party. His candidates really sucked and probably kept republicans from a senate with a decent majority. Dr. Oz lost to a stroke victim having trouble speaking, Masters couldn't even get republican funding, people like Vance and Walker were well behind any other republicans in their states...

Republicans have tolerated stuff like 1/6 but making fun of DeSantis before an election and getting Dr. Oz into a general election may have crossed the line.

Trump owns the GOP for as long as the base adores him.

I mean it's long been obvious Trump was an electoral loser.  He lost the popular vote twice.  Under his watch they lost the House and the Senate.  Trump-endorsed candidates did noticeably worse when compared to more independent GOPers.

But his base still adores him.  A Trump endorsement is a huge deal in winning a nomination battle (though not overwhelmingly so).

If Trump wants to, he'll easily be the nominee in 2024 and lose for a third time.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: PDH on November 09, 2022, 04:45:04 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2022, 04:43:33 PMThe US is not a serious country anymore. Half the population is uneducated retards.

Half?  We are improving!
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 04:54:08 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 04:44:09 PMIf Trump wants to, he'll easily be the nominee in 2024 and lose for a third time.

It is a long way off, but I don't think Trump would win against DeSantis. If they went toe to toe in the primary, my guess is that would be extremely divisive among republicans, but I think DeSantis would come out on top but possibly politically damaged with a lot of the republican base alienated.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 09, 2022, 05:03:43 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2022, 04:43:33 PMThe US is not a serious country anymore. Half the population is uneducated retards.

Well we went from barbarism to decadence without the usual period of civilization in between.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 09, 2022, 05:05:38 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2022, 03:00:52 PMWoa, woa. Are you claiming this is an actual DeSantis ad, and not a parody?

OMG and you guys thought Trump was bad, wait until this guy is your President.  :lol:

He is a big fan of Viktor Orban. So that's comforting.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 05:19:14 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 04:54:08 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 04:44:09 PMIf Trump wants to, he'll easily be the nominee in 2024 and lose for a third time.

It is a long way off, but I don't think Trump would win against DeSantis. If they went toe to toe in the primary, my guess is that would be extremely divisive among republicans, but I think DeSantis would come out on top but possibly politically damaged with a lot of the republican base alienated.

No way.

DeSantis would get the same treatment as Rubio, Cruz and Jeb!.  Trump will denigrate and belittle DeSantis, while DeSantis would be too afraid to lay a hand on Trump because DeSantis needs his supporters.  Trump will walk through with enough votes and enthusiasm to win the nomination.

Unless Trump decides not to run.  I mean the man is 76 years old, will be 78 by election day 2024.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on November 09, 2022, 05:28:22 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 04:54:08 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 04:44:09 PMIf Trump wants to, he'll easily be the nominee in 2024 and lose for a third time.

It is a long way off, but I don't think Trump would win against DeSantis. If they went toe to toe in the primary, my guess is that would be extremely divisive among republicans, but I think DeSantis would come out on top but possibly politically damaged with a lot of the republican base alienated.
I think DeSantis could win in the general.  I am convinced (as I said a little earlier in the thread) there's no way Trump can, so naturally I am hoping Trump declares his candidacy next week, coasts to the nomination, and then gets his ass kicked in the general.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 05:34:41 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 05:19:14 PMNo way.

DeSantis would get the same treatment as Rubio, Cruz and Jeb!.  Trump will denigrate and belittle DeSantis, while DeSantis would be too afraid to lay a hand on Trump because DeSantis needs his supporters.  Trump will walk through with enough votes and enthusiasm to win the nomination.

Unless Trump decides not to run.  I mean the man is 76 years old, will be 78 by election day 2024.

Since I exclusively consume printed news I basically never hear anyone speak. For some reason youtube recently recommended me a video with desantis speaking and i watched...i thought for the first 20 seconds that someone was trying to be funny and putting trump's voice over desantis speaking...I think desantis and trump have the same punchy style and desantis will be able to hit back.

I don't think desantis would run for president under an impression he could go up against trump and win without saying anything bad about him. You'd have to be a really dumb consultant to think that would work.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 05:38:14 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 05:34:41 PMSince I exclusively consume printed news I basically never hear anyone speak. For some reason youtube recently recommended me a video with desantis speaking and i watched...i thought for the first 20 seconds that someone was trying to be funny and putting trump's voice over desantis speaking...I think desantis and trump have the same punchy style and desantis will be able to hit back.

I don't think desantis would run for president under an impression he could go up against trump and win without saying anything bad about him. You'd have to be a really dumb consultant to think that would work.

How do you go after Trump though?  Call him out for being a liar?  A swindler?  For trying to steal the election?

His supporters will HATE DeSantis for this.  Just ask Liz Cheney.

DeSantis would have to try and thread a needle of "Trump's great, but his time is over".  Not sure it can be done.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tamas on November 09, 2022, 05:40:58 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 09, 2022, 05:05:38 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2022, 03:00:52 PMWoa, woa. Are you claiming this is an actual DeSantis ad, and not a parody?

OMG and you guys thought Trump was bad, wait until this guy is your President.  :lol:

He is a big fan of Viktor Orban. So that's comforting.

That DeSantis ad is just chilling.

Max mentioned what I was going to ask - is DeSantis the non-dumb version of Trump? As I was saying earlier, I thought the US got lucky with Trump in a lot of ways. The same far-right tide that enabled Orban (and solidified Putin I'd think) and handed the UK to a bunch of rich retards, rose up Trump.

Could have been far worse if he actually knew how to use the power his charisma gave him.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 05:45:02 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2022, 05:40:58 PMThat DeSantis ad is just chilling.

Max mentioned what I was going to ask - is DeSantis the non-dumb version of Trump? As I was saying earlier, I thought the US got lucky with Trump in a lot of ways. The same far-right tide that enabled Orban (and solidified Putin I'd think) and handed the UK to a bunch of rich retards, rose up Trump.

Could have been far worse if he actually knew how to use the power his charisma gave him.

DeSantis is like the non-dumb, non-charismatic version of Trump.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 05:49:56 PM
Trump just posted the following to Truth Social:

QuoteNow that the Election in Florida is over, and everything went quite well, shouldn't it be said that in 2020, I got 1.1 Million more votes in Florida than Ron D got this year, 5.7 Million to 4.6 Million? Just asking?

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/109315822774097761

And the thing is, his fans seem to eat this shit up, instead of seeing it as being all pathetic and needy.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tamas on November 09, 2022, 05:56:07 PM
DeSantis will just need to be more vile and evil against immigrants and other vulnerable groups and Trump's followers will switch to him especially if he will be seen as gaining momentum.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 05:56:28 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 05:38:14 PMHow do you go after Trump though?  Call him out for being a liar?  A swindler?  For trying to steal the election?

His supporters will HATE DeSantis for this.  Just ask Liz Cheney.

DeSantis would have to try and thread a needle of "Trump's great, but his time is over".  Not sure it can be done.

I'm not great at this stuff, I'm an accountant posting on the internet.

Say he is a loser. He picks loser candidates, he lost reelection. He was a loser as president because while Trump was giving press conferences with the most awful man in history (to a republican primary audience), Dr. Fauci, he was opening the state of florida. Trump was weak for not firing Dr. Fauci. A weak loser.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 06:07:36 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 05:56:28 PMI'm not great at this stuff, I'm an accountant posting on the internet.

Say he is a loser. He picks loser candidates, he lost reelection. He was a loser as president because while Trump was giving press conferences with the most awful man in history (to a republican primary audience), Dr. Fauci, he was opening the state of florida. Trump was weak for not firing Dr. Fauci. A weak loser.

I'll give you the Covid stuff.

But you can't call him a loser.  MAGA-heads think he won in 2020.  The election was stolen, remember?  And by calling Trump a loser, you're calling MAGA-heads losers.

Tamas might be on to something by just being even more evil than Trump, but I don't see much of an opening there either.  It's not like DeSantis will come up with some line or policy that would be too evil for Trump.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 06:17:55 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 06:07:36 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 05:56:28 PMI'm not great at this stuff, I'm an accountant posting on the internet.

Say he is a loser. He picks loser candidates, he lost reelection. He was a loser as president because while Trump was giving press conferences with the most awful man in history (to a republican primary audience), Dr. Fauci, he was opening the state of florida. Trump was weak for not firing Dr. Fauci. A weak loser.

I'll give you the Covid stuff.

But you can't call him a loser.  MAGA-heads think he won in 2020.  The election was stolen, remember?  And by calling Trump a loser, you're calling MAGA-heads losers.

Tamas might be on to something by just being even more evil than Trump, but I don't see much of an opening there either.  It's not like DeSantis will come up with some line or policy that would be too evil for Trump.

Another angle is age. The base will love hammering biden for infirmity and/or dementia. Finish those lines off with "you know I see some of that now in Trump too. he has lost a step or two or a dozen."

I not only think DeSantis can do this, he is giving every indication he is going to run, and if he does I don't think he is going to let trump attack him (which trump is already doing) and not punch back. My hunch is that if this plays out as DeSantis vs. Trump, DeSantis wins but it tears the party apart, Trump takes it very badly, and DeSantis is deeply wounded in the general election.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 09, 2022, 06:21:00 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 09, 2022, 04:43:33 PM
Quote from: Tamas on November 09, 2022, 03:00:52 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 02:01:16 PM
Quote from: celedhring on November 09, 2022, 01:50:18 PMTrump needs to workshop that DeSanctis nickname, "Desanctimonious" is far too laboured.

I like it.

You have to check out this ad he released, which literally says he was sent by God to be a "fighter" for the people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9oTBA-MvZk

You can tell though that Trump himself didn't come up with DeSanctimonius though.


Woa, woa. Are you claiming this is an actual DeSantis ad, and not a parody?

OMG and you guys thought Trump was bad, wait until this guy is your President.  :lol:

The US is not a serious country anymore. Half the population is uneducated retards.
But that was always true. Hell, I think its true of everywhere.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on November 09, 2022, 06:26:07 PM
France is not a serious country anymore. Half the population is uneducated retards.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on November 09, 2022, 06:31:36 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 09, 2022, 06:26:07 PMFrance is not a serious country anymore. Half the population is uneducated retards.
It's probably true of all occidental countries now.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 07:20:28 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 09, 2022, 04:38:36 PMThe Russkies have a poor read on America if they think foreign policy moves our politics much, our people are almost criminally indifferent to it.

I didn't see a single survey that listed Ukraine as a priority for voters.

It's either my number 2 or number 3.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 09, 2022, 07:34:07 PM
Ukraine is definitely a huge deal for me. But it wasn't really relevent in any of my elections.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 09, 2022, 07:38:07 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 05:38:14 PMHow do you go after Trump though?  Call him out for being a liar?  A swindler?  For trying to steal the election?

His supporters will HATE DeSantis for this.  Just ask Liz Cheney.

DeSantis would have to try and thread a needle of "Trump's great, but his time is over".  Not sure it can be done

Were I DeSantis going after Trump, here's how I would do it:

- "I'm just as petty and cruel as Trump. Watch me trigger the libs and personally go after folks out of spite."

- "I am, however, not a fucking loser. Look at that chump." Compare some of Trump's biggest lies with reality, but not in a "omg the audacity" but in a "look how ridiculous he looks" way.

- "I mean, I think Trump did some good work. I really appreciate it... but he's getting a little shaky. So old. Kind of confused. A bit like Biden, really. No difference between those two. Both are getting close to senile."

- "Here, watch me be deliberately cruel to trans folks / illegal immigrants / intellectuals from the city. Because I trigger the libs. You can still get that kick of anger and spite with me."

- "Trump... you now he talks tough, but that Jared Kushner, isn't he a bit suspect [JEWISH!]. You know that whole family are caught up in getting the approval of degenerate rootless cosmopolitan elites... here are some examples of him sucking up to Libs instead of triggering them."

- "Trump is a loser. He lost. His candidates lost. And he's going to win. He can't actually do it. I, however, am a winner. Look at my record of winning. Trump... he's a loser. And his brats are losers too."
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 07:46:56 PM
Quote from: Maximus on November 09, 2022, 04:22:16 PMDeSantis is the bigger threat; has been for several years. He's Trump, but more competent.

Unless he competently tries to overturn elections and disregards the rule of law he is a lesser threat.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 09, 2022, 08:13:34 PM
Cheers: to Maryland for electing Wes Moore, the winner of the 2032 Presidential election.
Jeers:  to Maryland for passing recreational marijuana with 70% of the vote. Fucking stoners. Fuck.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on November 09, 2022, 08:18:14 PM
:lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 08:28:42 PM
Trump running opposed in a primary would be a net positive for the country IMO.  The only way to excise the tumor is for Republicans to have an internal debate about all Trump's baggage.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 08:30:10 PM
I'll link to a NY Post editorial...blasting Trump...in case you wonder how Rupert Murdoch feels.

https://nypost.com/2022/11/09/heres-how-donald-trump-sabotaged-the-republican-midterms/?utm_source=NYPOpinionTwitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=SocialFlow

I'm telling you: when the history is written, republicans were cool with everything up to and including 1/6, but cost them a bunch of winnable senate seats and the knives come out.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 09, 2022, 08:31:17 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 05:19:14 PMUnless Trump decides not to run.  I mean the man is 76 years old, will be 78 by election day 2024.

He is running. He is emotionally incapable of not running. His ego will not allow it.

For a man who nurses every grudge for decades, for whom no slight has ever been too small, for which every cruelty is specifically designed to enjoy with great relish, he can't not run. Not with DeSantis as a rival. 

DeSantis refused to bend his knee and kiss the ring to the one who believes he is owed so much for DeSantis' success, so he much destroy him.  To hell with the rest of the party, which never mattered much to him as anything other than a live studio audience.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 09, 2022, 09:11:35 PM
Apparently Boebert may still make it... last I heard she's about 60 down from the Dem candidate.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on November 09, 2022, 09:27:21 PM
If Trump does lose the GOP primary...what are the chances he goes Bull Moose? :hmm:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 09:44:37 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 09, 2022, 09:27:21 PMIf Trump does lose the GOP primary...what are the chances he goes Bull Moose? :hmm:

I'd say very high if it didn't take a lot of effort to get ballot qualified.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 09, 2022, 09:49:08 PM
Quote from: Jacob on November 09, 2022, 09:11:35 PMApparently Boebert may still make it... last I heard she's about 60 down from the Dem candidate.

Short 73 votes with 95% of the ballots in.

Just a few more votes away from starting her OnlyFans account.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 09, 2022, 10:01:43 PM
Lenny Dykstra will be her first subscriber
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 09, 2022, 10:04:53 PM
Looks like Murdoch is less supportive off Trump:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhKkE2HVIAIHJlC?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 10:06:40 PM
What is going to be entertaining is, assuming the republicans have a ridiculously narrow house majority, the next speaker is going to be screwed. You've got total nutjobs on the far right, but you also have some new congressmen that just got elected in places like New York in very blue areas. He will have to keep them all in line to get anything done.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 09, 2022, 10:26:46 PM
So it turns out that Trump support seems to have become something of a poison pill. 

Good thing the Senate held him to account for his attempted insurrection instead of letting Mitch demand they give him a pass "until later".
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 10:41:46 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 09, 2022, 10:26:46 PMSo it turns out that Trump support seems to have become something of a poison pill.

Good thing the Senate held him to account for his attempted insurrection instead of letting Mitch demand they give him a pass "until later".


The Senate acquitted him. Weird definition of "held him to account".
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 10:46:48 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 10:41:46 PMThe Senate acquitted him. Weird definition of "held him to account".

As much as Throbby's stalking and holding grudges tire me out, I'm going to score this round for him.  The impeachment trial, and I would argue to a greater extent the Jan 6 hearings, have been part of the process of turning the public against Trump.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 09, 2022, 10:54:05 PM
QuoteI'll say this before Tuesday and we get the results of the election. This is completely wrong. There are only two things worth doing: doing things that achieve results, and doing things that achieve electoral advantage. The trial only achieved a Trump acquittal and it looks like now that no republican is paying much of a price for supporting Trump. Certainly not in a competitive senate race.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 11:32:43 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 09, 2022, 10:54:05 PM
QuoteI'll say this before Tuesday and we get the results of the election. This is completely wrong. There are only two things worth doing: doing things that achieve results, and doing things that achieve electoral advantage. The trial only achieved a Trump acquittal and it looks like now that no republican is paying much of a price for supporting Trump. Certainly not in a competitive senate race.


I thought things would go worse for democrats than they did. However, in the brightest possible spot of the election, the US Senate, the democrats lost every race in a state that Trump won in 2020. If all the uncalled races break the democrats way, they won the states that the Biden won however. Since Trump carried 25 states in 2020, that is certainly not a path to a majority.

Not a single republican incumbent lost, although Murkowski who was one of the few to vote to convict trump, is currently behind to a more conservative republican in Alaska (I think she probably wins). So it is kind of hard to say that there were benefits reaped from putting republican senators to a tough vote.

Why didn't Republicans do better? In midterm elections the out party tends pick up seats. There was Dobbs, but also look at the people the republicans nominated. To take Georgia as an example, a state Biden won, Herschel Walker is arguably the worst candidate to run for any office in this country or any other. We will find out in December if he wins, but in terms of hte overall environment every statewide office was won by Republicans in Georgia. This was a state that Biden won in 2020. You have another candidate talking in New Hampshire talking about democrats putting litter boxes in schools to accommodate furries, Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, Masters in Arizona who got funding pulled by Mitch McConnell because of his asshattery.

If the premise is that the Democrats had effective leadership because they have so far won all the senate seats in states Biden won while losing all the races in states he didn't, I don't accept that. The Republicans clearly get an F. That doesn't mean Democrats should get better than a D.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 11:37:34 PM
The Democrats beat the spread.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 10, 2022, 12:04:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 11:37:34 PMThe Democrats beat the spread.

The spread on the morning of November 8, 2022? Yes they did.

The spread on Jan 21, 2021 when Biden was taking office and direction was being set? I think they lost to that spread. I don't know of a place where senate / house odds were available to bet that early to show for sure, but the 2024 presidential market back then had republicans in the low 40s. Now they are at 55% to win.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on November 10, 2022, 01:37:04 AM
Biden saying be will stand for re-election.
This seems sort of unwise given his age and now damaged position as a uncontroversial centrist.
But I guess the dems have failed in what should have been a major goal of grooming a successor. Harris has vanished off the face of the earth
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 10, 2022, 01:50:49 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 10, 2022, 12:04:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 11:37:34 PMThe Democrats beat the spread.

The spread on the morning of November 8, 2022? Yes they did.

The spread on Jan 21, 2021 when Biden was taking office and direction was being set? I think they lost to that spread. I don't know of a place where senate / house odds were available to bet that early to show for sure, but the 2024 presidential market back then had republicans in the low 40s. Now they are at 55% to win.

So everybody was assuming that Biden was going to have gains in the midterms despite that very rarely ever happening in US political history? Huh. Gamblers are sure stupid.

I mean most of the stuff he promised to do he did, and the stuff he failed to do he at least attempted with his tiny majorities. And what? He was supposed to go off in a vastly different direction than the platform he campaigned and won on? I think the Democratic base would have been upset. And it's not like there is this vast pool of voters that can be won over. A huge number of voters are not going to vote Democrat no matter what they do, so chasing them at the expense of the base sounds like a strategy to repeat 2010...and 1994.

Besides a huge component is overcoming the shitty world economy which is largely outside the US President's ability to control. Which is also why I think odds of 2024 in 2021 or 2022 are worthless. A lot will be determined by just how things happen to be going regardless of what anybody does.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 10, 2022, 01:55:34 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 10, 2022, 01:37:04 AMBiden saying be will stand for re-election.
This seems sort of unwise given his age and now damaged position as a uncontroversial centrist.
But I guess the dems have failed in what should have been a major goal of grooming a successor. Harris has vanished off the face of the earth

Having a successor lined up hasn't worked well yet. I vastly prefer we get out candidate more organically.

Besides there weren't really any rising stars to get. Harris was never going to be the successor, her performance in the 2020 Primary made that clear.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 10, 2022, 02:24:06 AM
Quote from: Jacob on November 09, 2022, 01:05:42 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 09, 2022, 12:41:39 PMI'm not quite sure who taught you about the birds and the bees, but it might be time for a bit of a refresher...

It's 2022 man, a girl can have two dads.

Alas, she's just married.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 10, 2022, 02:52:16 AM
Harris was chosen to tick boxes, always a poor qualification.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on November 10, 2022, 02:55:15 AM
Biden was always going to say that - even if in the end he doesn't run for whatever cooked up reason. The moment he says he's just a one-termer he becomes a lame duck.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2022, 04:46:33 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 10, 2022, 12:04:26 AMThe spread on the morning of November 8, 2022? Yes they did.

The spread on Jan 21, 2021 when Biden was taking office and direction was being set? I think they lost to that spread. I don't know of a place where senate / house odds were available to bet that early to show for sure, but the 2024 presidential market back then had republicans in the low 40s. Now they are at 55% to win.

Inflation didn't start until into 21.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 10, 2022, 04:49:45 AM
And turning against Trump and turning against the GOP are two different things.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 10, 2022, 04:52:19 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 10, 2022, 01:37:04 AMdamaged position as a uncontroversial centrist

What?  :wacko:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 10, 2022, 06:59:07 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 09, 2022, 05:56:28 PMI'm not great at this stuff, I'm an accountant posting on the internet.

Say he is a loser. He picks loser candidates, he lost reelection. He was a loser as president because while Trump was giving press conferences with the most awful man in history (to a republican primary audience), Dr. Fauci, he was opening the state of florida. Trump was weak for not firing Dr. Fauci. A weak loser.
I totally agree. I think DeSantis is a real risk to Trump (and probably more of a risk than Trump).

But I always think about that Blair line about thinking for a long time before attacking his opponents to work out the line that most voters, who don't follow politics, will nod along to rather than tune out. I think for a fellow Republican that attack is that he's a loser.

His supporters believe that he won the election but in actual reality, he lost and he's no longer in the White House. I think reality beats his prince over the water stylings from Mar-a-Lago. He lost them elections in 2018, he lost the White House in 2020, his candidates lost 2020 - while (if I were DeSantis) DeSantis turned a purple state red.

But also, sadly, there's something to Tamas' line about DeSantis can do. Trump is an ex-president. He can post on Truth Social and he can hold rallies. DeSantis is a governor - he can push "don't say gay" laws, he can get into a fight with Disneyland, he can ship immigrants to Martha's Vineyard. He has power and he can get on the news and dominate news cycles in a way Trump used to be able to, but increasingly can't because he's just an ex-president.

Having said that I don't think DeSantis has much charisma and his speaking voice isn't great - but I think those can to some extent be fixed. I think he's in a better position than any other Republican.

I think that NY Post front page is exactly the type of message and tone to go for with Trump - and I think tone matters. Part of Trump's appeal is transgression - so attacking him from a point of seriousness, or concern probably helps him. I think that may have been the challenge for Democrats in responding to Trump - my instinct is that the best attack for Democrats against Trump is that he's weak. But it's difficult to attack someone as weak (or a loser) while simultaneously talking about them as a threat to the republic. I think that's true but I also think it flatters Trump and plays into the sense he's doing things. There's a similar tonal dissonance in the threat of Trump (serious, grave etc) v actual Trump, that I think he exploits quite well.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:01 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 10, 2022, 01:37:04 AMBiden saying be will stand for re-election.
This seems sort of unwise given his age and now damaged position as a uncontroversial centrist.
But I guess the dems have failed in what should have been a major goal of grooming a successor. Harris has vanished off the face of the earth

Biden is the head of the party..
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2022, 01:55:34 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 10, 2022, 01:37:04 AMBiden saying be will stand for re-election.
This seems sort of unwise given his age and now damaged position as a uncontroversial centrist.
But I guess the dems have failed in what should have been a major goal of grooming a successor. Harris has vanished off the face of the earth

Having a successor lined up hasn't worked well yet. I vastly prefer we get out candidate more organically.

Besides there weren't really any rising stars to get. Harris was never going to be the successor, her performance in the 2020 Primary made that clear.

Biden, as the President of the United States, is the political head of the Democratic Party. His sitting Vice President--any Vice President--is the presumptive successor. That's the way it's always been.

The fact that she's so readily dismissed shows how far the concept of the party mechanism has dissolved.

That, and everyone hates educated and accomplished uppity negresses that lock up dumbass stoners in Chongistan.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:32 AM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on November 10, 2022, 02:52:16 AMHarris was chosen to tick boxes, always a poor qualification.

I rest my case.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Grey Fox on November 10, 2022, 07:05:22 AM
You guys lack patience. There is no need for the heir apparent to be out there right now to be attacked by the opposition.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 10, 2022, 08:22:21 AM
Note that all Biden said was "he still plans to run again", which he has been saying since like 15 months ago. It isn't quite the same as the formal announcement of a reelection campaign. For some reason pundit class types and others have just assumed he wouldn't really run, but he has never given any indication of that.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 10, 2022, 08:37:45 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:01 AMBiden, as the President of the United States, is the political head of the Democratic Party. His sitting Vice President--any Vice President--is the presumptive successor. That's the way it's always been.

The fact that she's so readily dismissed shows how far the concept of the party mechanism has dissolved.

That, and everyone hates educated and accomplished uppity negresses that lock up dumbass stoners in Chongistan.

While Biden did become President I don't think the intention was to groom him for President. I think both he and Harris were selected for roughly the same reason, to balance out the ticket. Likewise I don't think the Republicans were expecting Cheney or Pence to be the next President.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 10, 2022, 08:56:04 AM
Cheney was clearly a bit of an outlier from a traditional VP--Bush had a lot of question marks going into the 2000 campaign related to his general competence, a "boring" but technocratic/capable VP was seen as burnishing his administration.

I don't necessarily think the Vice Presidency is "assumed" to be an anointing of a Presidential heir, but it is certainly the case that most people selected to be Vice President it is at least presumed they will be a contender for a Presidential nomination in the future.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on November 10, 2022, 09:04:25 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 10, 2022, 08:56:04 AMCheney was clearly a bit of an outlier from a traditional VP--Bush had a lot of question marks going into the 2000 campaign related to his general competence, a "boring" but technocratic/capable VP was seen as burnishing his administration.

I don't necessarily think the Vice Presidency is "assumed" to be an anointing of a Presidential heir, but it is certainly the case that most people selected to be Vice President it is at least presumed they will be a contender for a Presidential nomination in the future.
I agree that there is no reason to waste a VP spot on someone who has no chance of being a successor, and this is where Biden's demographic requirements have really hurt the Democrats.  Arbitrary restrictions don't matter if you have an infinite pool of candidates to choose from, but I don't think an infinite amount of Democratic presidential candidates is the reality we're in right now.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 10, 2022, 09:14:54 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 10, 2022, 08:56:04 AMCheney was clearly a bit of an outlier from a traditional VP--Bush had a lot of question marks going into the 2000 campaign related to his general competence, a "boring" but technocratic/capable VP was seen as burnishing his administration.

I don't necessarily think the Vice Presidency is "assumed" to be an anointing of a Presidential heir, but it is certainly the case that most people selected to be Vice President it is at least presumed they will be a contender for a Presidential nomination in the future.
Also Biden. Historically hasn't the VP mainly been about geographic balancing and that seems less of a thing now but there is maybe a bit more of an ideological/experience/image balancing in recent VP picks? It also feels like in the past the VP pick was maybe more willing to act as the attack dog/be more overtly political while the candidate tried to act "presidential".

I agree, they absolute get included in the list of possible successor but I think it's maybe always been about more what they offer the ticket at the point of the election rather than that they're the best person in 8 years time.

Which is where I'd slightly quibble with DG of whether what he's saying has always been that way? Biden was explicit about his requirements in a VP, but they've always been there - just normally been about geogrpahy or perceived political position for outreach to x part of the party.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on November 10, 2022, 09:24:34 AM
The last time the VP was the nominee in 2000 with Al Gore. Cheney didn't run in 2008, Biden stepped aside for Hillary in 2016, and Biden was not the primary front runner until South Carolina in 2020. VP selections are more about balancing the existing ticket rather than setting up the heir apparent.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: FunkMonk on November 10, 2022, 09:29:45 AM
I was impressed by Fetterman in PA, although I haven't really followed him. I know he suffered a recent stroke, which put his campaign in doubt, but obviously it didn't hurt him in the election.

He also looks like a professional wrestler. The man looks like he could pile drive DeSantis into the ground so hard that DeSantis would be speaking Chinese.  On Twitter someone said he looks like if a union was a man  :lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 10, 2022, 09:31:41 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 10, 2022, 09:04:25 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 10, 2022, 08:56:04 AMCheney was clearly a bit of an outlier from a traditional VP--Bush had a lot of question marks going into the 2000 campaign related to his general competence, a "boring" but technocratic/capable VP was seen as burnishing his administration.

I don't necessarily think the Vice Presidency is "assumed" to be an anointing of a Presidential heir, but it is certainly the case that most people selected to be Vice President it is at least presumed they will be a contender for a Presidential nomination in the future.
I agree that there is no reason to waste a VP spot on someone who has no chance of being a successor, and this is where Biden's demographic requirements have really hurt the Democrats.  Arbitrary restrictions don't matter if you have an infinite pool of candidates to choose from, but I don't think an infinite amount of Democratic presidential candidates is the reality we're in right now.

The demographic limits were to balance the ticket. If there was some superstar out there he probably would have gone that direction, but there wasn't. Mayor Pete doesn't exactly deliver anybody who wasn't already voting for Biden.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on November 10, 2022, 10:14:03 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 10, 2022, 09:29:45 AMI was impressed by Fetterman in PA, although I haven't really followed him. I know he suffered a recent stroke, which put his campaign in doubt, but obviously it didn't hurt him in the election.

He also looks like a professional wrestler. The man looks like he could pile drive DeSantis into the ground so hard that DeSantis would be speaking Chinese.  On Twitter someone said he looks like if a union was a man  :lol:
It did hurt him in the election (though he still won)... he was trouncing Oz in the polls until they debated, which is something he was reluctant to do and if you watch the debate, you'll see why.  On account of his stroke he is really struggling to communicate clearly and it's pretty difficult to watch.  I really hope he recovers his speech since I think Fetterman is great.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on November 10, 2022, 10:20:50 AM
Quote from: Caliga on November 10, 2022, 10:14:03 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 10, 2022, 09:29:45 AMI was impressed by Fetterman in PA, although I haven't really followed him. I know he suffered a recent stroke, which put his campaign in doubt, but obviously it didn't hurt him in the election.

He also looks like a professional wrestler. The man looks like he could pile drive DeSantis into the ground so hard that DeSantis would be speaking Chinese.  On Twitter someone said he looks like if a union was a man  :lol:
It did hurt him in the election (though he still won)... he was trouncing Oz in the polls until they debated, which is something he was reluctant to do and if you watch the debate, you'll see why.  On account of his stroke he is really struggling to communicate clearly and it's pretty difficult to watch.  I really hope he recovers his speech since I think Fetterman is great.

I do wonder how much the whole "The dems are running a mentally deficient person" thing helped him though- a hell of a lot of people in the country will have someone close to them who has had a stroke and be able to see through that.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 10, 2022, 10:44:23 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2022, 01:50:49 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 10, 2022, 12:04:26 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2022, 11:37:34 PMThe Democrats beat the spread.

The spread on the morning of November 8, 2022? Yes they did.

The spread on Jan 21, 2021 when Biden was taking office and direction was being set? I think they lost to that spread. I don't know of a place where senate / house odds were available to bet that early to show for sure, but the 2024 presidential market back then had republicans in the low 40s. Now they are at 55% to win.

So everybody was assuming that Biden was going to have gains in the midterms despite that very rarely ever happening in US political history? Huh. Gamblers are sure stupid.

I mean most of the stuff he promised to do he did, and the stuff he failed to do he at least attempted with his tiny majorities. And what? He was supposed to go off in a vastly different direction than the platform he campaigned and won on? I think the Democratic base would have been upset. And it's not like there is this vast pool of voters that can be won over. A huge number of voters are not going to vote Democrat no matter what they do, so chasing them at the expense of the base sounds like a strategy to repeat 2010...and 1994.

Besides a huge component is overcoming the shitty world economy which is largely outside the US President's ability to control. Which is also why I think odds of 2024 in 2021 or 2022 are worthless. A lot will be determined by just how things happen to be going regardless of what anybody does.

Valmy, you didn't understand what I wrote. I don't know of any betting market on the midterms that existed at the start of Biden's term. But there was a betting market on who would win the presidential election in 2024, and that had republicans at about 40%. My guess is that they were well below 50% because 1) incumbents usually get reelected, 2) an assumption Jan 6 and general republican chaos would hurt them, 3) vaccine rollout was starting and the idea america could take off when freed from covid, partially offset by 4) biden being really old and possibly not the strongest candidate in 2024.

Today the betting markets have chances of a republican victory in 2024 at about 55%. So the outcome of the past two years appears to be a net positive for republicans if we are using the spread as a guide as Yi brought up.


But the bigger point i've been trying to make for 2 years is that what is really important is the senate, and the messaging needs to reflect that. Lets assume that democrats win all the senate races that have yet been called. We are calling this a win for democrats, but republicans won 1 seat in a Biden state and all of them in 2020 Trump states. In 2020, the republicans also won the senate race in every state that Trump carried, and 1 seat in a Biden state. This is not sustainable: winning in states like Georgia and Arizona should not be seen as a "miracle" or "triumph", it is simply holding serve if the party is to be competitive for majorities in the long term (the bill on this comes due in 2024 when all 3 of the democratic senate seats held in trump 2020 states are up). Now if the republicans keep nominating people like Walker or people that want to fixate on furries using litter boxes in schools in the most competitive states, they might do so. But that won't be because of quality democratic leadership, it will be because of the implosion of the opposition.

The number of seats that shifted is also kind of a limiting way to think about things...for an incoming president, congressional results were not good at all for democrats in 2020. In a more normal cycle democrats may have picked up 15 or so more seats in 2020, and then lost them in 2022.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 10, 2022, 10:50:38 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 10, 2022, 10:20:50 AM
Quote from: Caliga on November 10, 2022, 10:14:03 AM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 10, 2022, 09:29:45 AMI was impressed by Fetterman in PA, although I haven't really followed him. I know he suffered a recent stroke, which put his campaign in doubt, but obviously it didn't hurt him in the election.

He also looks like a professional wrestler. The man looks like he could pile drive DeSantis into the ground so hard that DeSantis would be speaking Chinese.  On Twitter someone said he looks like if a union was a man  :lol:
It did hurt him in the election (though he still won)... he was trouncing Oz in the polls until they debated, which is something he was reluctant to do and if you watch the debate, you'll see why.  On account of his stroke he is really struggling to communicate clearly and it's pretty difficult to watch.  I really hope he recovers his speech since I think Fetterman is great.

I do wonder how much the whole "The dems are running a mentally deficient person" thing helped him though- a hell of a lot of people in the country will have someone close to them who has had a stroke and be able to see through that.

I mean he was running against Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Turkish & muslim citizen who lives in a different state and spent years on TV peddling nonsense to improve your orgasm, who had his TV benefactor (oprah) endorse Fetterman. A while back the democrats won against a super terrible candidate in Missouri (John Ashcroft) running a person who was literally dead. Some people are just tough to vote for.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 10, 2022, 11:10:38 AM
All that is true. You seem really intent on coming up with 100 reasons why the GOP under performed, rather then conceding that your premature victory lap you ran before the election based on a single reason why you wanted us to believe the Dems would under-perform - because they impeached Trump.

Weird. It is almost like your analysis is entirely driven by your need for validation on Languish.

Of course it goes without saying that the GOP running moron candidates helps the Dems. But they run moron candidates, in part, because they have gotten themselves into a place where their Dear Leader Trump gets to pick the candidates, and he loves morons, and America despises Trump, except for those who love him and support him and want to protect him from being called to account for his actions.

Herschel Walker is not the candidate *despite* Trump, he is the candidate because of Trump. Imagining a "better" GOP candidate doesn't mean that they would beat the Dem easily, because they would have to run on an entirely different platform. One of policy and boring crap like actual plans, rather then "Owning the libs" - which Walker does a great job at, and the Trumpists just love love love.

You cannot disconnect the fact that Oz is the candidate from Trump, the two are linked. And you cannot disconnect Trump from what happened on the 6th, and you cannot disconnect what happened on the 6th from how the Dems chose to respond, which includes holding a Senate trial against the objections of Moscow Mitch and you.

And I love that your premature spooge was all about the midterm election, and now that that has fallen flat, you are shifting to the 2024 *Presidential* election polling as your New and Improved Reason Why I Was Definitely Right All Along for Sures.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 10, 2022, 11:22:59 AM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on November 10, 2022, 09:24:34 AMThe last time the VP was the nominee in 2000 with Al Gore. Cheney didn't run in 2008, Biden stepped aside for Hillary in 2016, and Biden was not the primary front runner until South Carolina in 2020. VP selections are more about balancing the existing ticket rather than setting up the heir apparent.

Absolutely--the Presidential candidate selects the VP candidate he/she believes will most contribute to their ability to get elected. There is no other primary reason. Consideration of future party Presidential candidates or certain other concerns can definitely factor into the thinking, but there is no way someone who is running for President picks any veep candidate other than the one they think most contributes to their own election odds.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 10, 2022, 11:53:59 AM
I initially thought that Biden picking Harris as VP served in part as a desire to groom a successor (maybe Biden was only planning to serve one term on account of his age?), by elevating Harris' stock after her lackluster primary campaign, but given the lack of exposure that Harris is having I can see that that was not the plan. Unless that changes radically in Biden's 2nd half of this term, that is.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on November 10, 2022, 11:57:20 AM
It's possible that it was the plan, until Harris floundered and forced the plan to change.  She wouldn't lack exposure if exposure of her was a good thing.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 11:58:18 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 10, 2022, 11:53:59 AMI initially thought that Biden picking Harris as VP served in part as a desire to groom a successor (maybe Biden was only planning to serve one term on account of his age?), by elevating Harris' stock after her lackluster primary campaign, but given the lack of exposure that Harris is having I can see that that was not the plan. Unless that changes radically in Biden's 2nd half of this term, that is.

I think he didn't mind if Harris became his successor, but really he had committed himself to picking a woman of colour and just figured she was the best he could find with those demographics.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 11:59:47 AM
Quote from: DGuller on November 10, 2022, 11:57:20 AMIt's possible that it was the plan, until Harris floundered and forced the plan to change.  She wouldn't lack exposure if exposure of her was a good thing.

Well Biden hasn't exactly put her in positions to succeed.  He put her in charge of "the border" but his administration hasn't exactly made that a priority, for example.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on November 10, 2022, 12:01:10 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 11:58:18 AM
Quote from: The Larch on November 10, 2022, 11:53:59 AMI initially thought that Biden picking Harris as VP served in part as a desire to groom a successor (maybe Biden was only planning to serve one term on account of his age?), by elevating Harris' stock after her lackluster primary campaign, but given the lack of exposure that Harris is having I can see that that was not the plan. Unless that changes radically in Biden's 2nd half of this term, that is.

I think he didn't mind if Harris became his successor, but really he had committed himself to picking a woman of colour and just figured she was the best he could find with those demographics.
Correct, I believe he repeatedly promised during the primaries that his running mate would be a woman, and would not be white (doubt those were the exact words he used, but it was something to that effect).
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 10, 2022, 12:01:55 PM
Mayor Pete!
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 12:27:24 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 10, 2022, 12:01:55 PMMayor Pete!

After that surprising 2020 primary run he's definitely solidified himself as a great speaker (and apparently cable news guest).

HIs resume though is still so thin... small city mayor, then Secretary of Transportation.  And as a member of Biden's cabinet he definitely can't run against Biden if he seeks to run again, and it'd be difficult to run against Harris.

Actually I can't think of any serious Presidential primary candidates whose biggest claim to fame was being a cabinet secretary.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 10, 2022, 12:47:19 PM
Quote from: Berkut on November 10, 2022, 11:10:38 AMAll that is true. You seem really intent on coming up with 100 reasons why the GOP under performed, rather then conceding that your premature victory lap you ran before the election based on a single reason why you wanted us to believe the Dems would under-perform - because they impeached Trump.


This is a deranged lie.

If you think my analysis of the election was significantly off, you are a moron in addition to a lier. I made thousands betting on what was going to happen on the midterms. I think I had a fairly good pulse on what would happen.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 10, 2022, 12:54:00 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 10, 2022, 11:57:20 AMIt's possible that it was the plan, until Harris floundered and forced the plan to change.  She wouldn't lack exposure if exposure of her was a good thing.

Maybe but the media has also her found her uninteresting to cover. If I just look for what mentions I see of her in my day-to-day reading of the news, she could be dead for all I know. However, if I do a specific search on her, I can see there are plenty of articles on Kamala but they never rise to the top.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 10, 2022, 12:55:25 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 10, 2022, 12:54:00 PMMaybe but the media has also her found her uninteresting to cover. If I just look for what mentions I see of her in my day-to-day reading of the news, she could be dead for all I know. However, if I do a specific search on her, I can see there are plenty of articles on Kamala but they never rise to the top.
Yeah - you wonder if that's deliberate from the White House as well.

If you're an elderly leader the last thing you want is lots of coverage on the young deputy, so I wonder if they're deliberately positioning it all around the White House and Biden?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 01:06:28 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 10, 2022, 12:55:25 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 10, 2022, 12:54:00 PMMaybe but the media has also her found her uninteresting to cover. If I just look for what mentions I see of her in my day-to-day reading of the news, she could be dead for all I know. However, if I do a specific search on her, I can see there are plenty of articles on Kamala but they never rise to the top.
Yeah - you wonder if that's deliberate from the White House as well.

If you're an elderly leader the last thing you want is lots of coverage on the young deputy, so I wonder if they're deliberately positioning it all around the White House and Biden?

I really don't think that's it.  Strategically if Biden is elderly and risking to appear a little bit out of it, why wouldn't you want to emphasize you have a youngish and vibrant vice president?  It's not like Biden has any further ambitions after being President.

I think it's either:

a. Biden just doesn't have a great rapport with Harris.  I think I've read that Biden still tends to rely on some of the same team of advisors from Delaware that he's used for years and decades.  Ironically though Biden and Obama apparently had really good relationship; or

b. Harris just isn't as interesting to cover.  Joe Biden always made for good copy (compelling personal story, would speak without as much of a filter, the whole Onion "waxing his Corvette on the WH lawn" thing), but Harris much less so.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 10, 2022, 01:14:29 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 01:06:28 PMb. Harris just isn't as interesting to cover.  Joe Biden always made for good copy (compelling personal story, would speak without as much of a filter, the whole Onion "waxing his Corvette on the WH lawn" thing), but Harris much less so.

At least as far as the current media stance is considered. I think there is a lot of interesting things that could be covered based on Harris's biography.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 10, 2022, 01:15:05 PM
Also, they didn't seem to have such a problem when it was initially en vogue to cover how difficult she was to get along with. Then articles were like wildfire...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 10, 2022, 01:18:37 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 01:06:28 PMI really don't think that's it.  Strategically if Biden is elderly and risking to appear a little bit out of it, why wouldn't you want to emphasize you have a youngish and vibrant vice president?  It's not like Biden has any further ambitions after being President.
If you feel it's a weakness/vulnerability there's nothing that'll draw attention as much as a contrast, plus a bit of ego which I think all top level politicians have at some level. But you're probably right.

Quotea. Biden just doesn't have a great rapport with Harris.  I think I've read that Biden still tends to rely on some of the same team of advisors from Delaware that he's used for years and decades.  Ironically though Biden and Obama apparently had really good relationship; or
Yeah it does seem weird as the Obama-Biden relationship was very strong and Biden did work very closely with the White House. Of course that raises the possibility the issue isn't with the White House but Harris' team.

Quoteb. Harris just isn't as interesting to cover.  Joe Biden always made for good copy (compelling personal story, would speak without as much of a filter, the whole Onion "waxing his Corvette on the WH lawn" thing), but Harris much less so.
I thought Harris seemed really interesting but thought her primary campaign was a bit underwhelming. I wonder if that's rolled on - plus, as you say, she's been given the border to deal with which seems like a very canny use of a Vice President, but not great for her career.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 01:30:25 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 10, 2022, 01:14:29 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 01:06:28 PMb. Harris just isn't as interesting to cover.  Joe Biden always made for good copy (compelling personal story, would speak without as much of a filter, the whole Onion "waxing his Corvette on the WH lawn" thing), but Harris much less so.

At least as far as the current media stance is considered. I think there is a lot of interesting things that could be covered based on Harris's biography.

:huh:

I don't really see it.  She's the daughter of two university professors, grew up if not in affluence then in comfort.  Spent part of her childhood in Quebec which would be interesting, but makes her quite dissimilar from ordinary americans.  Her racial background is unique (mixed Caribbean black - Indian hindu) but again very hard to relate to for many.

She's had a very successful legal and then political career, but again I don't know if that makes her "interesting" to the average American.

Her personal life is even less interesting - she married at age 50 and is a step mom to her two white stepdaughters.



Compare that to Biden - grew up in more humble circumstances.  One of the youngest senators ever.  The whole story of his wife and child's death.  Grew up to overcome stuttering.  The struggles with Hunter's addictions.


Now don't get me wrong.  After I complained about Buttigieg having a thin resume to be President Kamala Harris has an excellent one - even before becoming VP.  I was just speculating on why she gets little media coverage.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 10, 2022, 01:59:28 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 01:30:25 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 10, 2022, 01:14:29 PM
Quote from: Barrister on November 10, 2022, 01:06:28 PMb. Harris just isn't as interesting to cover.  Joe Biden always made for good copy (compelling personal story, would speak without as much of a filter, the whole Onion "waxing his Corvette on the WH lawn" thing), but Harris much less so.

At least as far as the current media stance is considered. I think there is a lot of interesting things that could be covered based on Harris's biography.

:huh:

I don't really see it.  She's the daughter of two university professors, grew up if not in affluence then in comfort.  Spent part of her childhood in Quebec which would be interesting, but makes her quite dissimilar from ordinary americans.  Her racial background is unique (mixed Caribbean black - Indian hindu) but again very hard to relate to for many.

She's had a very successful legal and then political career, but again I don't know if that makes her "interesting" to the average American.

Her personal life is even less interesting - she married at age 50 and is a step mom to her two white stepdaughters.



Compare that to Biden - grew up in more humble circumstances.  One of the youngest senators ever.  The whole story of his wife and child's death.  Grew up to overcome stuttering.  The struggles with Hunter's addictions.


Now don't get me wrong.  After I complained about Buttigieg having a thin resume to be President Kamala Harris has an excellent one - even before becoming VP.  I was just speculating on why she gets little media coverage.

Difference makes a person uninteresting?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 10, 2022, 02:14:14 PM
It's looking like D will be around 214 in the House, amazingly better outcome than we were expecting even a week ago. What's a little annoying is if New York's Democratic party wasn't criminally inept, the Dems very well could have held the House.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 10, 2022, 03:06:55 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 10, 2022, 02:14:14 PMIt's looking like D will be around 214 in the House, amazingly better outcome than we were expecting even a week ago. What's a little annoying is if New York's Democratic party wasn't criminally inept, the Dems very well could have held the House.
Yeah, I would not start holding your breath on that one.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on November 10, 2022, 03:28:17 PM
Quote from: The Larch on November 10, 2022, 04:52:19 AM
Quote from: Josquius on November 10, 2022, 01:37:04 AMdamaged position as a uncontroversial centrist

What?  :wacko:

He was elected presenting as a centrist. Appealing to the right as a non crazy option.
At the same time not alienating stupid people on the left (the smart ones obviously seeing him as the best option by far).
Through being a real acting president he will have alienated many who hoped for things to go one way or the other with him.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 11, 2022, 12:49:28 AM
I think the Dems are actually going to go up 1 seat in the Senate.

Without Kemp sharing the ticket, I think Walker loses a runoff in Georgia.

Kelly looks to hold her margin in Arizona, and I think Nevada ends up going blue - the gap is 1% right now, and there are over 10% of the votes to go, and those are all from the more populous areas of Nevada, which I think trend Dem. This is a bit more of a long shot then the other two, of course.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 11, 2022, 12:56:00 AM
Actually, Nevada isn't even that much of a stretch.

The Republitard, Laxalt is ahead by about 9,000 votes, and there are over 55,000 votes still to be counted, almost all of which are from Clark County, which is where Vegas is located - and that area is predominantly Dem.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zoupa on November 11, 2022, 02:33:01 AM
I just want Dems to get 51 so no one has to hear about Manchin ever again.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on November 11, 2022, 02:39:10 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 11, 2022, 02:33:01 AMI just want Dems to get 51 so no one has to hear about Manchin ever again.

Then you'll hear about Sinema  :P
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 11, 2022, 08:45:06 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 11, 2022, 02:33:01 AMI just want Dems to get 51 so no one has to hear about Manchin ever again.
:yes:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 11, 2022, 08:46:00 AM
Quote from: celedhring on November 11, 2022, 02:39:10 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 11, 2022, 02:33:01 AMI just want Dems to get 51 so no one has to hear about Manchin ever again.

Then you'll hear about Sinema  :P
But you can work much more effectively with two recaltricents when you only need one of them.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 11, 2022, 08:56:31 AM
There is still a possible, but narrow scenario where the Dems keep control of the House....

I woke up this morning to a CNN analysis where they basically parroted my post from last night.

There are 95000 votes left to count in Nevada, all from the two more populous counties (Where Reno and Vegas are located). If the Dem gets 60% of those votes, she wins by about 10k votes.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 11, 2022, 09:17:45 AM
Zoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on November 11, 2022, 09:57:55 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 11, 2022, 09:17:45 AMZoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.

I am sure that they are happy that you can tell them how they feel.  How else could they know?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 11, 2022, 10:00:31 AM
Quote from: grumbler on November 11, 2022, 09:57:55 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 11, 2022, 09:17:45 AMZoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.

I am sure that they are happy that you can tell them how they feel.  How else could they know?

I don't think they are happy for me telling them anything, because I don't think they like me.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on November 11, 2022, 10:02:38 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 11, 2022, 10:00:31 AM
Quote from: grumbler on November 11, 2022, 09:57:55 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 11, 2022, 09:17:45 AMZoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.

I am sure that they are happy that you can tell them how they feel.  How else could they know?

I don't think they are happy for me telling them anything, because I don't think they like me.

They can't handle the trooth.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 11, 2022, 10:49:17 AM
Quote from: Berkut on November 11, 2022, 08:56:31 AMThere are 95000 votes left to count in Nevada, all from the two more populous counties (Where Reno and Vegas are located). If the Dem gets 60% of those votes, she wins by about 10k votes.

Most of the deep wonk analysts are pretty firm on Laxalt (R) losing in Nevada, not like 95% firm but 70%+.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 11, 2022, 11:29:01 AM
Via Philip Cowley - this is just wild from a British perspective:
https://twitter.com/Craigipedia/status/1590563176495853568?s=20&t=tOFIZBtelk4FWuK5rYTuDA

In the UK all the parties engage in massive expectations management around elections where they play down their own chances and try to increase the pressure on their opponents. It's just crazy to see politicians and consultants saying "yeah it's going to be a landslide!" :lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 11, 2022, 11:32:27 AM
I think there is decent evidence claims of election theft by Republicans has at least a mildly depressing effect on Republican turnout, with that in mind I kind of hope they keep doing it.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 11, 2022, 12:06:04 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 11, 2022, 10:49:17 AM
Quote from: Berkut on November 11, 2022, 08:56:31 AMThere are 95000 votes left to count in Nevada, all from the two more populous counties (Where Reno and Vegas are located). If the Dem gets 60% of those votes, she wins by about 10k votes.

Most of the deep wonk analysts are pretty firm on Laxalt (R) losing in Nevada, not like 95% firm but 70%+.
They've obviously been following my blog.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on November 11, 2022, 12:14:03 PM
The one where you think Mark Kelly is a woman?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 11, 2022, 12:14:59 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 11, 2022, 11:32:27 AMI think there is decent evidence claims of election theft by Republicans has at least a mildly depressing effect on Republican turnout, with that in mind I kind of hope they keep doing it.
I also wonder if the specific claims hurt the Republicans. It might be totally different in the US - but looking at UK stats on postal voting the "red wall" areas that are behind recent Tory victories are far more likely to use postal voting, while in-person voting is far bigger in liberal, metropolitan urban areas.

I have no evidence for this but my instinct would be that older voters are probably one of the demographics most likely to use early or mail voting - and they are a core part of the GOP base. It feels like the specific election theft around early and mail voting may have hurt.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 11, 2022, 12:20:10 PM
In many states, prior to covid, postal voting leaned Republican, in some states substantially so. There was an interview with a top Republican organizer in Florida who had been building out Florida's mail voter system since the late 1980s. It had largely developed into a very effective mail voting system that had a decent pro-R partisan lean. The reasons kind of follow what you think--Republican voters tend to be older and more rural, two things that can make it harder to get to the polls.

When covid hit and we had a few special elections, Trump observed that because many Republicans did not believe covid was real, and Democrats largely took it seriously, a disproportionate surge of Democrats were choosing to vote via mail. He extrapolated that mail voting was a serious risk to his reelection and started to demonize it. It is very likely he had immature and stupid response to a very limited set of data, and he probably undermined his very own reelection by attacking mail voting.

The problem with the attacks are--say you successfully turn off an elderly rural voter to mail voting, one who previously mail voted regularly. Now he plans to vote on e-day, which is fine, but in terms of odds, he is more likely to have something happen to him on e-day that may interrupt his plans. Maybe he is sick that day, maybe he has an important doctor's appointment, maybe a family member he relies on to drive him around has to cancel last minute. There is no fixing it if you've waited until e-day.

The effect is likely relatively small, the elderly are a high voter participation group in any case, but they are a big voting block and even on the margins with as close as many of our elections have been in the electoral college, it could make a difference.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 11, 2022, 12:33:10 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 11, 2022, 11:29:01 AMVia Philip Cowley - this is just wild from a British perspective:
https://twitter.com/Craigipedia/status/1590563176495853568?s=20&t=tOFIZBtelk4FWuK5rYTuDA

In the UK all the parties engage in massive expectations management around elections where they play down their own chances and try to increase the pressure on their opponents. It's just crazy to see politicians and consultants saying "yeah it's going to be a landslide!" :lol:

Interesting idea to compare one's hypothetical victory to a torrent of blood and a civilization ending disaster.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on November 11, 2022, 01:47:09 PM
Just read that the 89 year old Chuck Grassley was re-elected for another six years as US senator. Been in office since 1981 and before that served in Iowas state legislature since 1958.

I think it is absurd to have people that age in any political office. The party internal selection mechanisms do not seem to work well 
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: PJL on November 11, 2022, 02:15:51 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 11, 2022, 01:47:09 PMJust read that the 89 year old Chuck Grassley was re-elected for another six years as US senator. Been in office since 1981 and before that served in Iowas state legislature since 1958.

I think it is absurd to have people that age in any political office. The party internal selection mechanisms do not seem to work well 

Maybe you should also tell Wolfgang Schäuble & the CDU that as well. He's been a member of the Bundestag
for Offenburg since 1972.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on November 11, 2022, 02:51:31 PM
Quote from: PJL on November 11, 2022, 02:15:51 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 11, 2022, 01:47:09 PMJust read that the 89 year old Chuck Grassley was re-elected for another six years as US senator. Been in office since 1981 and before that served in Iowas state legislature since 1958.

I think it is absurd to have people that age in any political office. The party internal selection mechanisms do not seem to work well 

Maybe you should also tell Wolfgang Schäuble & the CDU that as well. He's been a member of the Bundestag
for Offenburg since 1972.
Definitely. He should have retired years ago.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on November 11, 2022, 02:53:15 PM
Imagine having such a sad personal life that you want to keep working in a dreadful job like the US Senate until you're 95.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on November 11, 2022, 03:07:53 PM
Quote from: Zanza on November 11, 2022, 01:47:09 PMJust read that the 89 year old Chuck Grassley was re-elected for another six years as US senator. Been in office since 1981 and before that served in Iowas state legislature since 1958.

I think it is absurd to have people that age in any political office. The party internal selection mechanisms do not seem to work well 

The voters keep voting for him...so who is really to blame?

Also...he's got nothing on Strom Thurmond, who I believe was in there at 100.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: FunkMonk on November 11, 2022, 05:21:00 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 11, 2022, 12:14:03 PMThe one where you think Mark Kelly is a woman?

 :lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 01:52:35 AM
It appears the AP has called AZ Senate for Kelly (D).
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2022, 02:35:24 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 01:52:35 AMIt appears the AP has called AZ Senate for Kelly (D).

Great! Now waiting on Nevada...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Solmyr on November 12, 2022, 02:37:07 AM
Can someone explain how do Democrats get 51 seats in the Senate? Is it because they flipped a seat in Pennsylvania? So they need to keep everything else (Nevada and Georgia) to get 51?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 12, 2022, 02:52:59 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 12, 2022, 02:37:07 AMCan someone explain how do Democrats get 51 seats in the Senate? Is it because they flipped a seat in Pennsylvania? So they need to keep everything else (Nevada and Georgia) to get 51?


They don't need 51. If they get to 50, VP then can play tiebreaker on votes.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Solmyr on November 12, 2022, 03:31:35 AM
I know, that's the same as now. But I'm seeing speculations about 51 seats, so how do they get there?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on November 12, 2022, 03:47:14 AM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 12, 2022, 02:37:07 AMCan someone explain how do Democrats get 51 seats in the Senate? Is it because they flipped a seat in Pennsylvania? So they need to keep everything else (Nevada and Georgia) to get 51?

That is correct.  Currently it is 49-49 (including the two that caucus with the Democrats)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 12, 2022, 05:49:47 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 12, 2022, 02:35:24 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 01:52:35 AMIt appears the AP has called AZ Senate for Kelly (D).

Great! Now waiting on Nevada...

We don't need to wait on Nevada. Democrats have won there. The vote count is essentially tied and the majority of ballots left are in Clark County. 23k remain to be counted there, and the last batch of 27k to be counted in clark county netted the democrats over 8k votes.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 06:43:32 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 12, 2022, 05:49:47 AMWe don't need to wait on Nevada. Democrats have won there. The vote count is essentially tied and the majority of ballots left are in Clark County. 23k remain to be counted there, and the last batch of 27k to be counted in clark county netted the democrats over 8k votes.

Does that make it 49 or 50?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 12, 2022, 07:50:25 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:01 AMBiden, as the President of the United States, is the political head of the Democratic Party. His sitting Vice President--any Vice President--is the presumptive successor. That's the way it's always been. 

This only really became true in the post war period. Before that VPs were almost always non-entities.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 12, 2022, 08:12:47 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 06:43:32 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 12, 2022, 05:49:47 AMWe don't need to wait on Nevada. Democrats have won there. The vote count is essentially tied and the majority of ballots left are in Clark County. 23k remain to be counted there, and the last batch of 27k to be counted in clark county netted the democrats over 8k votes.

Does that make it 49 or 50?
A win in Nevada would make it 50
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 09:03:02 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 12, 2022, 08:12:47 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 06:43:32 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 12, 2022, 05:49:47 AMWe don't need to wait on Nevada. Democrats have won there. The vote count is essentially tied and the majority of ballots left are in Clark County. 23k remain to be counted there, and the last batch of 27k to be counted in clark county netted the democrats over 8k votes.

Does that make it 49 or 50?
A win in Nevada would make it 50

Cool
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Grey Fox on November 12, 2022, 01:39:58 PM
Quote from: Solmyr on November 12, 2022, 02:37:07 AMCan someone explain how do Democrats get 51 seats in the Senate? Is it because they flipped a seat in Pennsylvania? So they need to keep everything else (Nevada and Georgia) to get 51?


That's accurate. I would be pretty nice to not have to negotiate with Moscow Joe Manchin.

(They didn't have 51 before. They had 50 + VP tie breaker)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: FunkMonk on November 12, 2022, 09:48:03 PM
Nevada Senate seat just called for the Dems. They will retain control of the Senate, regardless of what happens in Georgia.

Mitch is sad  :nelson:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: mongers on November 12, 2022, 10:25:24 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 12, 2022, 09:48:03 PMNevada Senate seat just called for the Dems. They will retain control of the Senate, regardless of what happens in Georgia.

Mitch is sad  :nelson:

 :cool:

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2022, 11:36:02 PM
GOP lead in the House 211-202 now. Going to be close.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 11:37:03 PM
Now would be a wonderful time for many Supreme Court Justices to die unexpectedly.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2022, 11:51:00 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 12, 2022, 09:48:03 PMNevada Senate seat just called for the Dems. They will retain control of the Senate, regardless of what happens in Georgia.

Mitch is sad  :nelson:

We still really need that seat in Georgia.

And with Manchin coming up for re-election in 2024 we need to give him cover to help him win. No matter how much he sucks he is better than whomever his opponent will be.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 12, 2022, 11:52:09 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 11:37:03 PMNow would be a wonderful time for many Supreme Court Justices to die unexpectedly.

Yeah. Still wild Trump got three in just four years...though yes the Republicans cheated on one of them.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on November 13, 2022, 12:05:30 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 12, 2022, 11:51:00 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on November 12, 2022, 09:48:03 PMNevada Senate seat just called for the Dems. They will retain control of the Senate, regardless of what happens in Georgia.

Mitch is sad  :nelson:

We still really need that seat in Georgia.

And with Manchin coming up for re-election in 2024 we need to give him cover to help him win. No matter how much he sucks he is better than whomever his opponent will be.

I'm working out which ballot boxes to mule the votes to as I type.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 13, 2022, 12:31:47 AM
Good man  :P

3rd district of Washington called for Dems.

211-203 now.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 13, 2022, 01:24:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 11:37:03 PMNow would be a wonderful time for many Supreme Court Justices to die unexpectedly.

I'd be 100% fine with people killing some of them.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on November 13, 2022, 08:08:39 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 13, 2022, 01:24:14 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 12, 2022, 11:37:03 PMNow would be a wonderful time for many Supreme Court Justices to die unexpectedly.

I'd be 100% fine with people killing some of them.

Two points:

1.  That's a terrible thing to say!
2. From your mouth outbox to God's ear inbox.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on November 13, 2022, 03:01:09 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 11, 2022, 09:17:45 AMZoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.

Yeah. A huge reason we want 51 is to give Manchin the cover to oppose Joe Biden on enough things to get re-elected.

We desperately need him and all the other remaining red state Democrats.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on November 13, 2022, 03:02:31 PM
It also frees Kamala Harris from having to hang around DC as much.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on November 13, 2022, 09:12:50 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2022, 03:01:09 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 11, 2022, 09:17:45 AMZoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.

Yeah. A huge reason we want 51 is to give Manchin the cover to oppose Joe Biden on enough things to get re-elected.

We desperately need him and all the other remaining red state Democrats.
It also means we don't need to have the committees have equal members, which can cause lots of delays if someone wants to slow things down
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 14, 2022, 06:41:34 AM
Quote from: Valmy on November 13, 2022, 03:01:09 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on November 11, 2022, 09:17:45 AMZoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.

Yeah. A huge reason we want 51 is to give Manchin the cover to oppose Joe Biden on enough things to get re-elected.

We desperately need him and all the other remaining red state Democrats.

There are senate democrats up for reelection in places like Montana and Ohio that also need cover. i think it is probably too late to save manchin though.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on November 14, 2022, 12:06:12 PM
The reality is that 51 doesn't give the Democrats opportunity to do much, with the House in GOP hands.

The main benefit is blocking GOP control of the Senate with a cushion if someone has to retire or passes away.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 14, 2022, 12:09:01 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 14, 2022, 12:06:12 PMThe reality is that 51 doesn't give the Democrats opportunity to do much, with the House in GOP hands.
Presumably judges and speeding up any remaining appointments?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on November 14, 2022, 12:38:57 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on November 14, 2022, 12:06:12 PMThe reality is that 51 doesn't give the Democrats opportunity to do much, with the House in GOP hands.

The main benefit is blocking GOP control of the Senate with a cushion if someone has to retire or passes away.

A cushion if someone leaves but also breathing room is needed for 2024.

A super interesting thing is that the house vote is likely to end up about GOP +4. But the house will be approximately 50-50. There are a ton of factors why things are this way, but it seems at least for this cycle the house will be something like gerrymandered in the democrats favor.

[some factors are that there were some uncontested republican seats, competitive races tended to go the democrats way, democrats lost a ton of ground in blue states - but not enough to cost them a ton of seats]
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 14, 2022, 01:41:35 PM
I think Joe Manchin is very unlikely to win in 2024, and I would wager there are better than even odds he does not run again. I've followed Manchin's career somewhat closely since he was Governor of WV. When he finally got his "dream job" as Senator after Byrd died (he resigned the Governorship to run for the vacant seat), he very quickly was making comments to friends and colleagues that the Senate...sucks ass. He found it frustrating how little you can actually do or get done as an individual Senator. He found it contrasted very negatively with his experiences as a Governor in which he felt like he had the power to get lots of things done (he enjoyed a friendly legislature his entire time in the Governor's mansion.)

While in the subsequent years Manchin was able to carve out a bit of a "dealmaker" niche for himself, and hosted prominent Senators from both parties on his private yacht he keeps docked in the Potomac, rumors are he still largely has never "fallen in love" with the actual job of Senator. It's always hard to sort the BS around this out because a large number of politicians dissemble on whether they plan to run again, but at least in Manchin's case there has been decent "insider" chatter for years and years that he doesn't actually like being a Senator that much. He is a 75 year old rich guy from WV who has won two full Senate terms and served as Governor for a number of years, it could be possible he just isn't interested especially if it proves to be a uphill battle campaign wise--which I think it would be, few States have moved as far red as West Virginia in the last 6 years.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on November 14, 2022, 01:57:56 PM
If he's not even planning on running again, then it makes it even more baffling why he wouldn't spend the rest of his political capital on protecting democracy.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 14, 2022, 02:03:14 PM
There's always been a fundamental misread of Manchin--he doesn't do what he does for political reasons in the way most assume. He is a genuine conservative Democrat from the old tradition, and actually believes the positions he holds, which put him at odds with much of his own party. He doesn't believe in quashing the filibuster and he probably doesn't agree with too much Federal "intrusion" into State management of elections. It's as simple as that.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on November 14, 2022, 03:19:37 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 14, 2022, 02:03:14 PMThere's always been a fundamental misread of Manchin--he doesn't do what he does for political reasons in the way most assume. He is a genuine conservative Democrat from the old tradition, and actually believes the positions he holds, which put him at odds with much of his own party. He doesn't believe in quashing the filibuster and he probably doesn't agree with too much Federal "intrusion" into State management of elections. It's as simple as that.

Feels at best...short sighted to cling to principles as the country burns.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on November 14, 2022, 03:23:53 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 14, 2022, 02:03:14 PMThere's always been a fundamental misread of Manchin--he doesn't do what he does for political reasons in the way most assume. He is a genuine conservative Democrat from the old tradition, and actually believes the positions he holds, which put him at odds with much of his own party. He doesn't believe in quashing the filibuster and he probably doesn't agree with too much Federal "intrusion" into State management of elections. It's as simple as that.
I agree and I think it makes Manchin understandable and someone you can work with, but is a constraint.

I find Sinema far more baffling.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 14, 2022, 11:10:35 PM
AZ governor called for Hobbs (D).
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on November 15, 2022, 12:59:46 AM
And Kari Lake is safely defeated.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Eddie Teach on November 16, 2022, 02:57:07 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 14, 2022, 03:19:37 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 14, 2022, 02:03:14 PMThere's always been a fundamental misread of Manchin--he doesn't do what he does for political reasons in the way most assume. He is a genuine conservative Democrat from the old tradition, and actually believes the positions he holds, which put him at odds with much of his own party. He doesn't believe in quashing the filibuster and he probably doesn't agree with too much Federal "intrusion" into State management of elections. It's as simple as that.

Feels at best...short sighted to cling to principles as the country burns.

Without principles, what is the country worth?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 16, 2022, 04:33:09 PM
Good piece in the NYT that has some of the first collected data on the midterms:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/opinion/midterms-republicans-democrats.html?unlocked_article_code=JYMOsNr-21eUg5ZsSL70FMefYdnH22f4TllUTIP0aUq0d7Rg_gdObIqWlKXT6Fj1deZIYBj055uIlUCqnEetUzmLnQaMG1sYS2gmH_mHat4htd0hGC2HDYXOo6I_jNVjI7GiQpppc3MLDRchtqhl94vojTAXG0RjIoYuNpXhZRSl3MGCxU2wORc5ozu18Wr3IX94aCd3bEXKOizi8FnrtMN-giwOCsWvW4iUzTXtNFSXpXw_MEjRxJu3w7QVZoPOzmV5ap6As6n9EmGNhnVDTEUgkqKtiJmkWSsd2tYNxfEfKj8CwNTOEUblOjBq9bhRudlzoHBwvsVoEgbevriPJ12BpBTeygcg&smid=share-url

QuoteThe Red Wave Didn't Just Vanish
Nov. 16, 2022

By Thomas B. Edsall

Mr. Edsall contributes a weekly column from Washington, D.C., on politics, demographics and inequality.

On Election Day, a small but crucial percentage of Republican voters deserted their party, casting ballots for Democratic nominees in several elections that featured Trump-backed candidates at the top of the ticket. These Trump-driven defections wrought havoc on Republican ranks. At the extreme, a once-strong Republican Party in Michigan was shut out at every level of state government.

Look at key battleground states that were critical to continued Democratic control of the Senate. In Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, party-line voting among Republicans consistently fell below the party's national average, according to exit poll data.

In New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, the Republican vote for the Republican Senate candidate was seven percentage points below the national average, and the Republican vote for the Democratic Senate candidate increased by the same amount; in Arizona, support for the Republican Senate nominee fell among Republicans by six points and support for the Democratic candidate rose by the same amount, again; in Nevada, the drop in support for the Republican candidate was two percentage points, and the increase for the Democratic nominee was once again the same.

Each of these states had a Republican Senate nominee closely tied to Donald Trump, suggesting that Republican voters jumping ship are far more wary of anti-democratic initiatives than many of their elected leaders, Trump included. The same pattern of Republican defection emerged in contests for the governor's mansion in states where the Republican nominee was closely identified with Trump, including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Three political scientists — Sean Westwood of Dartmouth, Yphtach Lelkes of the University of Pennsylvania and Shanto Iyengar of Stanford — created the Polarization Research Lab, which conducted weekly surveys with YouGov of a total of 13,000 voters during the final seven weeks of the campaign.

Westwood observed in an email that the major finding of the survey "is that democratic norm violations of the sort many Republicans ran on are an electoral loser."

Republican candidates, Westwood added, "running on platforms that supported democratic norm violations were standing behind a policy that seems to only resonate with Trump and a small minority of Republican voters."

While only small percentages of the voters of both parties support violations of election norms, according to Westwood, they "have incredibly distorted views of the other side."

Both Democrats and Republicans, Westwood said,

Quoteoverestimate the extent to which the other side supports democratic norm violations by up to 5 times. There is a real risk that damage to our country could occur not because of support for norm violations, but as a pre-emptive strike based on the faulty assumption that the other side has abandoned democracy.

Independent voters, in the polarization lab surveys, were equally hostile to democratic backsliding.

One clear conclusion to be drawn from the 2022 elections is that candidates who supported Trump's claim that the 2020 election was stolen were soundly defeated in competitive states. In close elections, the importance of seemingly small shifts became magnified, and pro-Democratic gains among independent voters in key states reinforced the effect of Republican defections.

Nationally, independent voters were split 49-47 in favor of Democrats, according to exit polls, which are still adjusting their data. In Arizona, they supported Mark Kelly, the Democratic Senate candidate, 55-39; in New Hampshire, it was Maggie Hassan at 54-43; and in Pennsylvania, independents, who make up a quarter of the state's electorate, supported John Fetterman over Mehmet Oz 58-38, a striking 20-point difference.

The same pattern among independent voters obtained in governors' races in Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan and especially Pennsylvania, where independent voters backed Josh Shapiro over Doug Mastriano 64-33. Trump endorsed the Republican nominee in each of these states.

Lelkes noted in an email that

Quotein a 49/51 election, a small percentage of people switching sides combined with independents moving in favor of Democrats is enough. It's hard to say if this was because the candidates were the ones moving toward the extreme right, or if it was because voters shifted closer to the left.

Political parties, Lelkes continued,

Quoteconstantly try to expand their pool of voters. The process involves a balancing act between tacking to the extremes to pick up additional voters, without turning off those marginal voters on the other side of the distribution. Apparently, Republicans tacked too hard to the right.

Frances Lee, a political scientist at Princeton, wrote by email that she "was very surprised at the extent to which Democrats overperformed the 'fundamentals' that normally predict midterm election outcomes, meaning presidential approval, state of the economy, and perceptions of the direction of the country," before adding:

QuotePolarization cannot adequately explain Republicans' near total failure to make gains in 2022. Undoubtedly, polarization puts a ceiling on the seat swings one could reasonably expect in the current environment, but Republicans held 246 House seats and 54 Senate seats just a couple of election cycles ago. Even in a polarized environment, Republicans had significant room to grow their ranks of officeholders.

Instead, Lee argued:

QuoteThe election outcomes are consistent with the interpretation that the candidates most closely associated with Trump suffered a penalty. Voters rejected all the Trump-endorsed secretary of state nominees in important swing states. Republicans unexpectedly lost seats in districts where Republican incumbents who supported Trump's impeachment had been denied renomination. Republicans closely linked to Trump lost elections in winnable swing states, suffering decisive defeats in the gubernatorial elections in Michigan and Pennsylvania and narrow defeats in the Senate elections in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Republicans less closely associated with Trump won their elections without difficulty: Sununu in New Hampshire, DeWine in Ohio, Kemp in Georgia, DeSantis in Florida, among others.

In a Nov. 10 postelection email to leaders and donors in his party leaked to the press, Paul Cordes, chief of staff of the Michigan Republican Party, described the devastating defections, among both voters and donors, that followed the nomination of Trump-backed Tudor Dixon to run against Gretchen Whitmer for governor, along with other Trump-endorsed candidates for secretary of state and attorney general.

"Tudor Dixon did nearly eight points worse than the base Republican vote," Cordes wrote, arguing that her poor showing at the top of the ticket pushed down support for Republican state legislative candidates, noting that in defeat, "House G.O.P. candidates received 161,000 more votes than Tudor statewide and were on average just 1.3 percent behind Democrats" and "Senate G.O.P. candidates received 150,000 more votes than Tudor, losing by an average of 1.6 percent to Democrats."

The effect on donors was equally damaging.

"It seems nearly impossible to imagine drawing up a more challenging position for ourselves coming out of the August primary," Cordes wrote. "Donors for the most part decided against supporting Trump's handpicked AG and SOS candidates from the April convention, and also withheld millions in traditional investment into the state party."

Cordes added:

QuoteIn what many of them saw as sending a message to Donald Trump and his supporters, longtime donors to the party remained on the sidelines despite constant warnings of the possibility of the outcome we saw coming to fruition on Election Day: A statewide sweep and one-party Democratic rule in Lansing something that has not been seen in nearly 40 years in Michigan.

Before the election, Cordes wrote, the state party calculated that

Quoteif Tudor Dixon could keep the race with 3-4 percent, our state House and Senate majorities would be safe. If she lost by 7-8 percent, we were going to be in danger of losing one or both chambers. It looks as though Tudor will end up losing by 11 points and Republicans find themselves shut out of every level of power.

Jenna Bednar, a political scientist at the University of Michigan, wrote by email to say that the Michigan Republican Party is emblematic of the problems that emerged in the 2022 election. "The Michigan Republican Party is in disarray," she wrote, noting that Tudor Dixon got "just 44 percent of the vote when state House and Senate candidates took 49 percent statewide. Dixon campaigned on Republican 'red meat' issues like critical race theory, parental review of curriculum, transgender athletes, and book bans."

Trump's allure, Bednar argued,

Quotehas faded in many states. Even before the election, we saw signs of voter exhaustion with all things Trump. Here in Michigan, in the final weeks of the campaign many Republican candidates noticeably walked back from touting their Trump endorsements. They were responding to centrist voters who are fed up with the cultural wars, election denials, and general antics.

In a separate email, Matt Grossmann, a political scientist at Michigan State, cited the Supreme Court's abortion ruling as a key factor in the election outcome. The Dobbs decision, he wrote

Quotechanged the usual dynamics of movement against the party of the presidency by giving voters an extremely salient conservative policy shift to react against. There is also some evidence that voters recoiled at the most extreme election-denying Republican candidates, but that might be more attributable to the typical advantages of moderation and experience than to explicit swing voter concern with democratic backsliding.

There were, Grossmann wrote, Republican defections from the party of Donald Trump: "Parts of the Republican electorate certainly want to move on from Trump, if only because he is a continuing electoral drag on the party, but that does not mean the anti-Trump faction will be able to accumulate a primary majority."

Republican defections at the margins are one of many explanations of the party's dismal performance on Election Day.

A publicly released postelection analysis by Neil Newhouse and Jim Hobart, partners at the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, found, for example, that a far higher percentage of Democrats, 81 percent, believe "Republicans represent a threat to democracy that, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it," than Republicans (69 percent) believe the same thing about Democrats.

In addition, Newhouse and Hobart reported, abortion, which worked to the advantage of Democrats, "was more of a factor than the pre-election polls indicated," with almost as many voters, 31 percent, saying it was a high-priority issue as the 32 percent who identified rising prices and inflation, an issue that benefited Republicans. Almost identical percentages identified concern over democratic backsliding, at 25 percent, a pro-Democratic issue, as the 26 percent who identified jobs and the economy, a pro-Republican concern.

The two Republican pollsters asserted, "This election was NOT good news for former President Trump." Not only did many of his handpicked candidates lose, they continued, but "there is clear evidence that GOPers may be falling out of love with President Trump."

Independent voters, Newhouse and Hobart wrote, "particularly late deciders who opted for Democratic candidates, could very well have been in reaction to President Trump more aggressively inserting himself into the midterm dialogue."

Significantly, Newhouse and Hobart provided data showing that through 2020, a larger percentage of Republicans considered themselves "to be more a supporter of Donald Trump" than "a supporter of the Republican Party." That came to an end in January 2021, and by this month, 67 percent said they were "more a supporter of the Republican Party," more than double the 30 percent who said they were "more a supporter of Donald Trump."

Two political scientists, Ariel Malka of Yeshiva University and Paul Frymer of Princeton, each cautioned by email against overinterpreting the results of the election.

"I am skeptical that concerns about democracy are a great part of the explanation for Republicans' weak performance," Malka wrote:

QuoteIt is heartening that election deniers lost races for key offices in competitive states, but many Republican election deniers won their elections for House seats and state offices. It would be too optimistic to conclude that anti-democratic behavior will itself be a liability for candidates moving forward.

Malka noted that "abortion strikes me as potentially more relevant for explaining the break from historical midterm patterns." Although it may have energized some Democrats, he added, the key is that "it might have been a decisive factor for a chunk of independents and even some moderate Republicans who oppose strict bans."

Trump, Malka argued, remains the favorite to win the 2024 nomination: "A strong majority of Republicans are favorable toward Trump, and this favorability has proven robust in the face of scandals, negative coverage and so on." Some members of the Republican elite, Malka wrote, "would like their voters to form a stable belief that the midterms showed Trump is a liability for the party. But these elites will have their work cut out for them."

Frymer wrote:

QuoteIn general, I think it's too early to cast broad interpretations of this election. So far, the indications are that these electoral results are not national and likely defy any unifying message as a result. Florida and New York and perhaps Oregon offer notable Republican gains, while California has narrowly avoided the same with a lot of close elections going the Democrats' way. This was not the red wave that Republicans were hoping for, but they still will likely win the House for the first time since the 2016 elections.

Will Republican voters turn against Trump?

"Maybe a bit," Frymer wrote,

Quoteand maybe some of that will gain momentum with the success of DeSantis and the blaming, in at least some quarters, of Trump for the electoral failures. But it is important to remember that Trump has never been popular outside of his base, never achieved majority support in an election or even a meaningful approval poll." Trump remains "what he has always been — widely disapproved by majorities of urban and many suburban areas, and notably independent voters. This is hardly the first time it seemed like leading Republicans were ready to abandon Trump.

While "Dobbs appears to have been important," Frymer stressed his belief that

Quotethe story of this election is good local candidates campaigning on popular politics in their areas and contesting national issues within local contexts. Local situations, whether the quality of the candidates, the money targeted, or the importance of gerrymandering and/or the ability to ignore the Voting Rights Act, tipped the balance in a multitude of extremely close races. Trump's popularity (or more importantly, his lack of popularity) seems, at least as of the early indicators, pretty unchanged.

From Nov. 6 through Nov. 8, Stanley Greenberg conducted a survey of 2,520 registered voters for Democracy Corps, including a 1,130 oversampling of voters of color, the results of which were released on Nov. 15. The conclusions Greenberg drew from the survey and earlier polling this year are a mixed bag for both parties.

"Two-thirds rate the economy negatively," according to Greenberg, "yet Democrats did not prioritize the economy in this election and the president is still trying to convince people this is a good economy. This may be the toughest to make progress on." In addition, the "failure of national Democrats to address the economy meant rural areas and white working-class communities were a political wasteland."

The Democratic Party, according to Greenberg, "got respectable support with Hispanics, as well as young people, but women across the whole spectrum played the biggest role. Unmarried women, white college women and under-50, white working-class women all raised their vote level since October, no doubt motivated by the abortion issue." But, Greenberg warned, Democrats remain "at risk with Hispanics and Asian voters if they do not rethink what they prioritize, what their policies offer, consciously battling for all in our coalition, and acknowledging past mistakes, and having an inclusive vision where all make progress in America," noting that the Biden administration's 2021 expansion of the child tax credit is "uniquely popular among Hispanics."

Crime, Greenberg wrote,

Quotewas a top issue for many Democratic base voters. A quarter of Blacks and half of Hispanics and Asians voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats to address the issue. With Democrats trailing Republicans by 10 points on crime, Democrats have a lot of work to do.

There is another word of caution for Democrats. The party's single most important achievement in 2022 was to maintain control of the Senate, preventing Republicans from blocking Biden's judicial and executive branch appointments.

The Senate seats up for election on Nov. 8 gave Democrats many more opportunities, with 21 seats held by Republicans and 14 held by Democrats. In 2024, however, 23 Democratic seats will be up for grabs — including two independent seats (Angus King in Maine and Bernie Sanders in Vermont) — making it that much harder for Democrats to keep their thin majority. Eight of these Democratic seats are in purple or red states (Montana and West Virginia, for example) offering multiple opportunities to the Republican Party.

In contrast, all 10 of the Republican-held seats up for election in 2024 are in solidly red states.

There is ample evidence of widespread support among Republican voters for Trump's false claim that the 2020 election was stolen, a claim designed to foster not just democratic norm violation but the violence that burst into view during the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

An overwhelming majority of Republican elected officials have either endorsed the lie or remained acquiescent in the face of crumbling adherence to basic democratic norms. Republican legislators in red states across the nation have enacted legislation to restrict voting that leans Democratic and to transfer power to decide election outcomes from election officials to politicians in state legislatures.

In other words, 2022 produced a significant election that Democrats can legitimately celebrate, but it may have a short half-life.

Lot to unpack here, and I think the article did a good job representing a balance of ways you could analyze the results:

- Quick takeaway is that voters seem to have broadly rejected anti-democracy candidates in most important swing states. However the meat of the data makes it hard to really tell if that is what happened, or was it more related to Dobbs, was it more related to just general Trump fatigue in those states, or other issues.
- Regardless of the correct read, none of it suggests that nominating Trump in 2024 will help the GOP's chances of winning the White House, and there's at least some evidence to suggest it will significantly hurt those chances
- That doesn't mean Trump cannot win in 2024--and it certainly doesn't mean he cannot win the nomination. He won the nomination in 2016 while opposed by most traditional donors and party powerbrokers and most significant Republican elected leaders. He also won the general in 2016 while being opposed by a majority of the country and having worse likeability numbers than HRC (who was otherwise historically unlikeable in such polling.) No one should come away from this feeling amazingly comfortable that Trump will get creamed in a walk in 2024.
- Some of the State by State independent voter spreads look genuinely bad for Republican prospects in 2 years, the percentage of independents who broke for Dems vs Republicans in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania look to be dramatic (20 points in Pennsylvania and almost that much in the other two), and there is no realistic Trump map where he can get to 270 whilst losing MI / AZ / PA.

One of the important things not mentioned in the article is while battle state performance for the GOP looked really bad, red state performance was super strong. Obviously just winning red states doesn't win you the electoral college, but it largely means the current Republican coalition is entrenching itself very strongly in a way that it can't just be pushed out of politics any time in this generation. States like Florida and Ohio which as recently as Barack Obama were genuine battlegrounds are now extreme Republican states, to a degree that even a state traditionally very red like Kansas or Nebraska could not have dreamed of even 30 years (in fact, oddly KS/NE may be more nuanced politically now than OH and FL.)

The article calls out signs of Republican strength based on House elections in New York state and California but they left out a salient detail--both States used to be gerrymandered firmly in the Democrats favor, and both States banned partisan gerrymandering since the last election. I don't think there is any serious growth of Republicanism in either State, but ungerrymandering a bunch of Democrat gerrymanders is, shockingly, going to improve Republican competitiveness in those ungerrymandered districts.

The article also didn't mention North Carolina, which IMO is not a good piece of news for the Democrats. NC had seemed to be moving in the same direction as Georgia and Virginia (which both appear to be trying to become blue states in fits and starts, but both--moreso Georgia, have a good ways to go before that is the case); NC appears to have drifted back red. The demographic argument for expecting NC to move more along the lines of VA / GA are still valid, but there's I believe more rural and suburban evangelical whites in NC, as a percentage of the population, than in VA and GA, which mean the Democrats likely won't flip the state easily or particularly soon.

The article also didn't dwell much on demographics which I think are a consistently undervalued political metric. Between 2020 and 2022 several million people aged 65+ died, and several million people under age 21 became new voters. This will happen again from 2022 to 2024, and there is nothing but extremely strong evidence that is a bad demographic trend (and one that is truly unstoppable) for the GOP.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: 11B4V on November 18, 2022, 02:04:56 AM
Frisch has cut Bobo's lead by half. Don't know if there's enough b left to push him over the top.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 18, 2022, 03:33:02 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAPMCcOKqJ0

Pelosi announces stepping down.  Will keep seat.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2022, 01:29:29 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIqXzp9JlaQ

The Republican members of the election board in Maricopa County AZ are refusing to certify results.  The reporter says this might mean those votes aren't counted.  (If I heard it correctly) there's a similar situation in northeastern Pennsylvania. 

Both areas are heavily Republican.  So my first thought was what a wonderful way to shoot themselves in the foot.  My second thought was what if they wise up and pack election boards in deep blue counties with Trumpists?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Berkut on November 29, 2022, 01:34:25 AM
I suspect the idea is to just gum up the process, right?

You can't say the Dem won if one of the counties isn't counted!
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2022, 01:57:51 AM
Woops, Cochise County.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zoupa on November 29, 2022, 05:26:30 PM
This photo is amazing.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiwBYR1UAAA-JQO?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 29, 2022, 05:27:17 PM
Wax museum?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on November 29, 2022, 05:31:24 PM
Back to midterm news, apparently Herschel Walker doesn't even live in Georgia...

QuoteHerschel Walker claims Texas home as primary residence

Herschel Walker, the Republican running for a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia, has continued to claim his Tarrant County home as his primary residence — potentially breaking both Texas tax laws and some Georgia rules on establishing residency for the purpose of voting or running for office, according to CNN.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on November 29, 2022, 06:39:20 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 29, 2022, 05:26:30 PMThis photo is amazing.

Why are the Republicans so unhappy?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on November 29, 2022, 06:54:06 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2022, 01:57:51 AMWoops, Cochise County.

Yeah, technically if they really didn't count the votes from that county the safe Republican victor in that district would lose to the Democrat. I don't know the specific process in each of the States, but there are typically legal machinations a combination of the courts and the State government can use to basically run over these local certifying committees if they become truly recalcitrant.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on November 29, 2022, 07:38:57 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 29, 2022, 06:54:06 PMYeah, technically if they really didn't count the votes from that county the safe Republican victor in that district would lose to the Democrat. I don't know the specific process in each of the States, but there are typically legal machinations a combination of the courts and the State government can use to basically run over these local certifying committees if they become truly recalcitrant.

I looked it up and Cochise is split between Congressional district 6 and 7.  In 6 the Republican is up by 5,000 so it could swing it I guess.  7 is deep blue and the Democrat is winning by a bunch.

I trust you are right that "the system" will straighten things out.  I just don't recall that ever happening before.  I remember there was a crazy chick in Michigan in 2020 who talked about not certifying but she eventually backed down.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 01, 2022, 08:41:46 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG4A98tS_98

Now I've seen it.  Judge orders Cochise County board to certify.  They do.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on December 02, 2022, 04:05:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 01, 2022, 08:41:46 PMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG4A98tS_98

Now I've seen it.  Judge orders Cochise County board to certify.  They do.

Well, half of the intransigents appear in court and the same half boycott the certification vote.

As you would expect from these antidemocracy fucks, they were not refusing to certify because they thought that the election they were to certify had any faults.  They were doing it to express their personal opposition to another, Democratic county, certifying its votes.

Hope to see them get at least a few days' worth of jail time and a criminal record that prevents them from ever holding office in the state again.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2022, 08:55:25 PM
Herschel up by 46K with 41% reporting.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 06, 2022, 09:39:35 PM
Stat guys are starting to call it for Warnock based on locations that have reported and the margins thus far.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 06, 2022, 10:07:18 PM
Warnock is going to win easily. I didn't have much anxiety about this one. Huge to have a 51-49. This means we only need 49 Democratic Senators to pass anything.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on December 06, 2022, 10:14:59 PM
 :showoff: My 24 votes paid off.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on December 06, 2022, 10:58:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 06, 2022, 10:07:18 PMWarnock is going to win easily. I didn't have much anxiety about this one. Huge to have a 51-49. This means we only need 49 Democratic Senators to pass anything.
50.7% - 49.3%.
Not exactly a stunning victory.

I mean, considering the kind of guy he was facing.  Had Warnock faced a semi-decent Republican he might as well lost that run off election.  This is not that encouraging for Dems, imho.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 06, 2022, 11:08:25 PM
I mean Georgia has been a Republican stronghold for about 15 years and now it has two Democrat Senators.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: FunkMonk on December 06, 2022, 11:25:49 PM
Quote from: viper37 on December 06, 2022, 10:58:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 06, 2022, 10:07:18 PMWarnock is going to win easily. I didn't have much anxiety about this one. Huge to have a 51-49. This means we only need 49 Democratic Senators to pass anything.
50.7% - 49.3%.
Not exactly a stunning victory.

I mean, considering the kind of guy he was facing.  Had Warnock faced a semi-decent Republican he might as well lost that run off election.  This is not that encouraging for Dems, imho.

 :hmm:

This is an extremely ignorant post. 
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2022, 11:53:06 PM
It's not at all ignorant.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 12:04:05 AM
Quote from: viper37 on December 06, 2022, 10:58:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 06, 2022, 10:07:18 PMWarnock is going to win easily. I didn't have much anxiety about this one. Huge to have a 51-49. This means we only need 49 Democratic Senators to pass anything.
50.7% - 49.3%.
Not exactly a stunning victory.

I mean, considering the kind of guy he was facing.  Had Warnock faced a semi-decent Republican he might as well lost that run off election.  This is not that encouraging for Dems, imho.

I don't expect that to be the final margin, most of the remaining votes are heavily Dem. And this is the third staight Senate election the Dems have won in Georgia in almost the same way against three different opponents. In a state in the deep south where we were getting regularly pummeled a short time ago.

This is a very good result. The Republicans are a well funded and ruthless political machine. And the Dems have won three straight Senate elections on their turf. We need things to trend our way and start to win other statewide elections in Georgia and North Carolina...but this is good.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 12:07:25 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 06, 2022, 11:53:06 PMIt's not at all ignorant.

Well it's true that the sickness of the Republicans leads them to nominate candidates like Walker. That might make things slightly easier but it also makes the stakes much higher.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on December 07, 2022, 12:21:43 AM
Quote from: viper37 on December 06, 2022, 10:58:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 06, 2022, 10:07:18 PMWarnock is going to win easily. I didn't have much anxiety about this one. Huge to have a 51-49. This means we only need 49 Democratic Senators to pass anything.
50.7% - 49.3%.
Not exactly a stunning victory.

I mean, considering the kind of guy he was facing.  Had Warnock faced a semi-decent Republican he might as well lost that run off election.  This is not that encouraging for Dems, imho.

Warnock faced a "semi-decent Republican" last time and won by a razor-thin margin as well. Jon Ossoff did the same.

It's very encouraging for Democrats. Victory isn't defeat.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 07, 2022, 03:55:59 AM
Quote from: viper37 on December 06, 2022, 10:58:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 06, 2022, 10:07:18 PMWarnock is going to win easily. I didn't have much anxiety about this one. Huge to have a 51-49. This means we only need 49 Democratic Senators to pass anything.
50.7% - 49.3%.
Not exactly a stunning victory.

I mean, considering the kind of guy he was facing.  Had Warnock faced a semi-decent Republican he might as well lost that run off election.  This is not that encouraging for Dems, imho.

Raphael Warnock
Democratic Party
51.4%
1,817,465

Herschel Walker
Republican Party
48.6%
1,719,868

A 2.8% victory in Georgia seems to be quite good.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 09:00:32 AM
2022 is generally positive for the Democrats for the reason that in just the normal course of politics with an average President, you almost always suffer bad losses in midterms. In fact, I think excluding what is considered a fluke due to the "rally around the flag" effects of the post-9/11 midterms, there was 1 other midterm in the last 40 year where the Presidents' party didn't suffer really big losses. The GOP only winning the national House vote by around 3% and actually losing ground in the Senate, with not an "average" President, but arguably one who is below average (I mean in terms of popularity / approval, I am not assessing Biden's performance in office), is a damn good outcome.

On a bigger view of it, it means what many of us (myself included) feared in the further collapse of Democrat votes in many important swing states appears to have been arrested and even reversed. After 2016 there were justifiable worries that MN, PA, and MI which were key parts of Democrat national viability were going to continue drifting more red than blue. The logic was the Democrats had already seen purple rust belt states like Ohio drift to solid red and these other similar profile states were in danger of doing the same thing. That appears to not be happening, if anything the Democrats have grown margin in all three states, in Michigan for example they have done so substantially--now controlling the entire government.

Looking at the 2024 map it starts to be obvious how important this is, if Biden is still pretty solid in PA and MI, the Republican map just gets really hard. If they flip GA and AZ--their two closest losses, Biden still wins 276 EVs. If they lose all three of their closest results (that adds Wisconsin to red), they switch to losing the election, but the data out of Wisconsin is relatively positive--a fairly unpopular Governor (D) won reelection by around 3.5 points. A pretty bad Democratic Senate candidate lost to Ron Johnson by around 1%. Wisconsin will be tightly contested, but there is reason to believe Democrats remain strongly competitive there. (Note that unlike a lot of swing states Wisconsin has almost no "trendline", it has had a series of close Presidential votes, some less than a 1% margin, going back to 1988, which is a little unusual.)

How you feel about all this may just be a reflection of where you stood on all of this in an emotional sense. If you're someone who has been waiting since 2016 (or even 2010) for the "crazy wing" of the Republican party to finally suffer a massive defeat and be driven into the bowels of the earth never to be heard from again--well that is a fairy tale. That wing of the Republican party represents a very loud, very angry, very passionate ~35% of our country and they aren't going anywhere fast--about the only good thing about them is they trend old and are going into the ground at a higher rate than more reasonable political demographics, but that isn't a fast process. Once the "dam broke" so to speak and this wing of the party started to succeed in toppling establishment Republican leadership, they were never going to go back to passively voting for establishment Republicans who don't represent their angry, extremist views.

If you want to look for positive on that side of the aisle, really bad extremist candidates appear to now be hurting the Republicans chances of attaining power. This will and should have an important reformatory effect where you will start to see more Republican donors, powerbrokers etc work harder to try to keep these candidates from winning primaries, and even in some cases declining to offer them much support in their general elections. Over time this could help drift the GOP back toward reasonableness. Again, if you're wanting that Waterloo moment where the bad guy is driven off the field of battle in dramatic fashion and sent away to exile, that just isn't happening, but the process of slow correction to our civil society looks pretty much like this. Importantly, for that process to continue you need results like this to continue regularly every 2 years, and that is far from certain.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 09:47:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 07, 2022, 03:55:59 AMRaphael Warnock
Democratic Party
51.4%
1,817,465

Herschel Walker
Republican Party
48.6%
1,719,868

A 2.8% victory in Georgia seems to be quite good.

Really? What would you have considered to be an average result?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 10:08:42 AM
OvB, the problem is that this is now two straight election cycles that Democrats have failed to win any senate seats in states that Trump won in 2020 and lost 1 seat in a state that Biden won. If this is "success" then the party is headed to be a persistent minority in the Senate (Biden won 25 states and Trump 25, so winning in Biden states like Georgia isn't winning on enemy ground, it is just holding serve).

But the bigger danger is that Trump picking really bad candidates covered up major problems. Nate Cohn in the NYT found that MAGA republicans had a swing in republican vote of +0.7% compared to 2020. However, other republicans had a swing of 5.6%.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/upshot/trump-effect-midterm-election.html

You can see this in Georgia. Walker was a MAGA candidate, basically a political creation of Trump, and lost. There were 8 other statewide races in Georgia and Republicans won all of them (the closest race was actually the senate race).

Trump is unlikely to be the nominee in 2024. Him losing may cause the base of republicans to split as Trump throws a temper tantrum. The economy could also improve. Lots could happen. But the result is ominous for democrats if republicans can unify behind someone other than trump.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on December 07, 2022, 10:19:48 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 09:47:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 07, 2022, 03:55:59 AMRaphael Warnock
Democratic Party
51.4%
1,817,465

Herschel Walker
Republican Party
48.6%
1,719,868

A 2.8% victory in Georgia seems to be quite good.

Really? What would you have considered to be an average result?

Biden carried the state by 0.2%
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 10:22:53 AM
Quote from: celedhring on December 07, 2022, 10:19:48 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 09:47:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 07, 2022, 03:55:59 AMRaphael Warnock
Democratic Party
51.4%
1,817,465

Herschel Walker
Republican Party
48.6%
1,719,868

A 2.8% victory in Georgia seems to be quite good.

Really? What would you have considered to be an average result?

Biden carried the state by 0.2%

How much do you know about Herschel Walker?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 10:40:54 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 10:08:42 AMOvB, the problem is that this is now two straight election cycles that Democrats have failed to win any senate seats in states that Trump won in 2020 and lost 1 seat in a state that Biden won.

That's better than losing more seats. The Democrats were at serious risk of losing the Georgia seat and the Arizona seat, both of which were viewed as possibly only being won in 2020 because Trump was so unpopular he hurt the Republican brand. Both were guys who were elected to fill out partial terms, and both won reelection in competitive races this year.

Flipping Toomey's seat in Pennsylvania was also unabashedly good.

Not flipping Johnson's seat in Wisconsin is akin to the failure to beat Susan Collins in a winnable Maine seat in 2020.

I don't really ascribe much to your core thesis--that if the Republicans win a state in the electoral college it means they will always win it in the Senate. I think you are absolutely going to see less ticket splitting than you once did, and that bodes badly for a party that can't win or compete in at least 25 states. But that isn't where we are right now--both parties won 25 states in 2020. That broadly suggests both parties will remain competitive in the Senate. Obviously you want to get rid of "enemy" Senate seats in states that are going blue, but sometimes you lose elections. The Democrats are not going to win every election and that isn't doom and gloom for them--the Republicans aren't going to win every election either.

Like I said, I think people's reactions to this are going to be based on what their baseline expectation was. My baseline expectation was a very poor Democrat showing, including 30+ seat loss in the House, and probably losing the Senate. Instead they locked in several competitive Senate seats for another 6 years. It would have been ideal had they picked off Ron Johnson, but they didn't. In 2024 they are very likely to lose the Senate because I think the WV Democrat seat is a guaranteed flip to Republican and I think the Montana Senate seat is a near-guarantee. But I also don't view that as maybe as dire as you do. If we're working from an assumptions Democrats can never lose an election, never lose either House of Congress or they're "doomed", then well--they're doomed. We have a two party system, a polarized country, and a strong geographic sorting of political partisans. The Democrats are going to lose elections, and that is never going to change.

I'm not someone who thinks it is that big of a deal for party changes to happen in government in "normal" operations of our society. The post-2010 GOP and particularly the 2016 and onward GOP represents a unique threat to the country, to me the goal isn't the GOP never winning elections again because that isn't a realistic goal. The goal is to see the GOP tone things down so that them winning elections doesn't make us feel like the republic is in peril. I see a lot of good indicators that we may have hit a peak of anti-democracy and extremism in the GOP in 2020 and we're starting to see what will likely be an agonizingly slow decrease in such over the next 10 years.

Your scenario where the GOP rejects Trump in the 2024 primaries (which I am highly skeptical of), doesn't worry me at all--in fact it encourages me. The very fact that the GOP could reject a Trump nomination would be an unabashed move in the right direction.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 10:57:12 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 09:47:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 07, 2022, 03:55:59 AMRaphael Warnock
Democratic Party
51.4%
1,817,465

Herschel Walker
Republican Party
48.6%
1,719,868

A 2.8% victory in Georgia seems to be quite good.

Really? What would you have considered to be an average result?

The last few results in statewide Georgia elections? You know...the ones that we lost? The one that led to this runoff? The two Senate races from 2020? The other fucking elections in Georgia? What else are we supposed to consider an average result in Georgia? Elections in Idaho?

Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 10:22:53 AMHow much do you know about Herschel Walker?

People vote for the party more than the person these days. The fact that Walker was a doofus helped Warnock win by 2.8% instead of 2% like last time or 1.2% like Ossoff did over Perdue.

QuoteYou can see this in Georgia. Walker was a MAGA candidate, basically a political creation of Trump, and lost. There were 8 other statewide races in Georgia and Republicans won all of them (the closest race was actually the senate race).

Yeah? No fucking shit. This is how it has been in Georgia for awhile. Which is why this, and the other two Senate races, was a good result.

QuoteBut the bigger danger is that Trump picking really bad candidates covered up major problems. Nate Cohn in the NYT found that MAGA republicans had a swing in republican vote of +0.7% compared to 2020. However, other republicans had a swing of 5.6%.

Right. It is called being an incumbent and running in a difficult environment with inflation and shit. The fact that we managed comparable results to 2020 is pretty impressive. But yeah the other point is the Hillary Clinton "why aren't we winning by 50 points?" Well maybe the Republicans are a powerful and formidable opponent? The right wing all around the western world is resurgent in a big way? That is the major problem and we will see if the tired old Democratic party is ultimately up to the challenge.

But you are moving the goal posts all over the place. We are talking about this one election in the context of the last election. You are bringing up big decades long trends and telling us they are not acceptable. Well sure. Reality sometimes sucks, but we have to deal with it.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 10:57:43 AM
FWIW one of the big challenges the GOP will have in confronting the Trump nomination is the assumption that the hardcore Trumpers will unify behind someone who challenged and defeated Dear Leader in a primary, one which he will almost certainly never concede and will continually say was stolen, is far more questionable than the reverse. We already know almost all establishment Republicans will toe the line and fall in behind a Trump nominee, we do not know that Trump will play that role if DeSantis beats him in the 2024 primary, and there is good reason to suspect Trump who is one of the most spiteful people to ever be on the public stage would dedicate immense resources to undermining DeSantis and the GOP if they dare to reject him.

I think a lot of people know exactly this, which will make it harder for DeSantis to win to start with because some people will actively fear supporting him for this exact reason.

I think DeSantis as the nominee with Trump behind him would be a strong, strong candidate and I struggle to imagine Biden beating him. but DeSantis with Trump regularly taking potshots at him for the entirety of the election? That seems pretty disastrous to me for the GOP.

ETA: One of the big reasons all the guys Trump beat coalesced behind him in '16 is they all genuinely believe in the larger Republican political project and are desperate to maintain their spot in the party. Trump has no such concerns, he clearly does not care about the GOP at all outside of how it relates to his personal standing, and he has no interest in elected office outside the Presidency and his position in the party is secured by his legions of foaming-at-the-mouth imbecile fans, who aren't going anywhere. Trump has almost no natural incentive to be a good boy if he loses the '24 nomination.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on December 07, 2022, 11:11:56 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 10:22:53 AM
Quote from: celedhring on December 07, 2022, 10:19:48 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 09:47:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 07, 2022, 03:55:59 AMRaphael Warnock
Democratic Party
51.4%
1,817,465

Herschel Walker
Republican Party
48.6%
1,719,868

A 2.8% victory in Georgia seems to be quite good.

Really? What would you have considered to be an average result?

Biden carried the state by 0.2%

How much do you know about Herschel Walker?

Less than I know about Donald Trump, but we aren't certainly talking model citizens here.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 11:21:52 AM
There is not much reason to expect a big shift away from one of the two parties.

In an era of extremism, non-extremists in both parties are going to start to feel less comfortable with their own party. It is absolutely the case that a good chunk of Georgia Republicans were uncomfortable with both Donald Trump in 2020 and Herschel Walker in 2022. However, the good majority of those people still ended up voting for Trump and Walker. [A small minority ended up not, ticket-splitting in the November General or even staying home in the special election, which is how Walker '22 lost, Trump '20 lost, and Brian Kemp won handily in '22.]

This is because despite growing extremism making moderates uncomfortable, the growing extremism increases negative partisanship. While there are plenty of Democrats who are uncomfortable with figures like AOC, and Republicans who are uncomfortable with figures like Doug Mastriano / Donald Trump / Herschel Walker etc, their negative partisanship (i.e. hatred of Democrats) overcomes that and just leads to strong "lesser of two evils" voting behavior. In theory if the Democrats could plausibly sell themselves as a centrist party that just happened to have some leftists in the fringes, it might pour cold water on that negative partisanship and lead to a return of the pre-1994 era when the Democrats enjoyed strong "natural" majorities in most elections and particularly in House and Senate elections. That is highly unlikely because there is a huge media network and political network in the GOP built to fight against any cooling of that negative partisanship. This is why Democratic attempts to moderate frequently have limited success--moderating is one step, getting exacerbated moderates on the other side to acknowledge it is harder, and if they still primarily consume Republican media they will be prone to viewing Democratic moderate candidates as no different than the socialists / leftists they hate (and worse still, some of these compromise candidates will not only fail to attract disaffected Republicans, they will inspire fewer progressive Democrats to bother voting.)

There really isn't a magic answer, with a lot of caveats both moderation attempts and play to the base attempts can and do work in this environment. I really see little reason to think the future of the country is a long period of political slog--but I see indicators that at least the guys who aren't in favor of disbanding democracy have a good fighting chance in that slog.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 11:22:19 AM
Herschel Walker is a fine tax paying Texan sir!  :mad:

Anyway we lost the election in the House and that sucks, but we barely won it in 2020. Local conditions in New York and Florida ultimately sunk us. Got to do better in 2024. I am certainly not saying everything is great and we are kicking ass, just that Warnock winning re-election was a good result. If somebody had told me in 2019 that we were going to control both Senate Seats in Georgia in 2022 I wouldn't have believed them and currently that is the difference in the Senate.

And we have a hell of a mountain to climb in 2024 in the Senate as well, we desperately need both of those seats.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 12:27:08 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 11:22:19 AMHerschel Walker is a fine tax paying Texan sir!  :mad:

Anyway we lost the election in the House and that sucks, but we barely won it in 2020. Local conditions in New York and Florida ultimately sunk us. Got to do better in 2024. I am certainly not saying everything is great and we are kicking ass, just that Warnock winning re-election was a good result. If somebody had told me in 2019 that we were going to control both Senate Seats in Georgia in 2022 I wouldn't have believed them and currently that is the difference in the Senate.

And we have a hell of a mountain to climb in 2024 in the Senate as well, we desperately need both of those seats.

See... 2024 is why you guys should've been nicer to Joe Manchin.

Just trying to figure out how bad 2024 is actually... besides Manchin, the Ds are defending senate seats in Ohio, Montana, and Arizona.  And if you're looking for vulnerable R seats - you're stuck looking at Missouri (Josh Hawley) Texas (Ted Cruz) and Florida (Rick Scott) - none of which feel like they're trending D.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 12:58:44 PM
I think Dems likely hold AZ, and I can't imagine them keeping MT or WV; I won't speculate on OH. The trends in OH are bad for the Democrats but Sherrod Brown has a weird voter base in that state and has defied odds before so until I see polling in the general election season in '24 itself I won't feel too strong on prognosticating on that one.

I would not favor Democrats to flip any Republican seats in '24.

The Dems suffered some bad beats in winnable races the last few cycles which will continue to trouble them. Ron Johnson was beatable this year but a progressive black candidate was his opponent, one linked to the defund the police narrative in a cycle where that was deeply unpopular (Ron Johnson has been beatable his entire career--he is the beneficiary of a string of close election wins and mismanaged chances by the Democrats.) Susan Collins was polling horribly throughout 2020 but I think the campaign against her from an establishment centrist Democrat in Maine just never seemed to get wind under its sails. I think Collins was probably beatable too.

Then in NC I think Tillis was beatable--North Carolina has had Democrats winning statewide seats there and is pretty competitive, but his challenger had an extramarital affair leak a few weeks before the election and he himself was a candidate of a divisive primary that alienated parts of the left in NC. In this tight environment the close losses, especially where you can imagine a reasonable alternative scenario where you'd have pulled out wins, will haunt you.

Bill Nelson in FL is another good example--FL is a state where just 2 years after Nelson lost it looks pretty reasonable and unlikely FL elects a Democrat to the Senate in the next generation, but the year Nelson lost it was by a very narrow margin--and he is widely viewed as having ran a horrible and anemic campaign. It was being actively complained about while it was going on that he wasn't putting the work in, was poorly deploying his resources etc. Given the narrow margin of his loss and how poorly he ran his campaign, it seems close enough that you can imagine the Democrats "stealing one" there and keeping Nelson's seat; they almost certainly would have lost it regardless 6 years later because Florida has drifted too far red, but it would have been nice mortar for their wall in the Senate for that 6 years.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 01:08:22 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 12:27:08 PMSee... 2024 is why you guys should've been nicer to Joe Manchin.

Agreed. And now we can be now that we have a cushion. Manchin played ball as far as he could, now he is off the hook.

Sinema is now the problem but there is no need to be nice to her.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 01:10:16 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 12:58:44 PMI think Dems likely hold AZ, and I can't imagine them keeping MT or WV; I won't speculate on OH. The trends in OH are bad for the Democrats but Sherrod Brown has a weird voter base in that state and has defied odds before so until I see polling in the general election season in '24 itself I won't feel too strong on prognosticating on that one.

I would not favor Democrats to flip any Republican seats in '24.

Montana seems to be trending our way for some reason, not enough to think we can win but it is interesting.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 01:15:20 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 12:58:44 PMI think Dems likely hold AZ, and I can't imagine them keeping MT or WV; I won't speculate on OH. The trends in OH are bad for the Democrats but Sherrod Brown has a weird voter base in that state and has defied odds before so until I see polling in the general election season in '24 itself I won't feel too strong on prognosticating on that one.

I would not favor Democrats to flip any Republican seats in '24.

AZ is a wild card because I suspect Sinema would be primaried.  AZ if a toss-up but has been friendly to Dems recently.

MT and WV - the incumbents (Manchin and Tester) have held both seats for quite awhile now.  Just looking at the numbers they've been narrow wins, but both have won three straight elections.  Agree Ohio is trending R pretty strongly (though not so strongly as MT or WV), so who knows.

It is a Presidential year, so that will have a huge effect on the down-ballot races.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 01:21:55 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 10:40:54 AMI don't really ascribe much to your core thesis--that if the Republicans win a state in the electoral college it means they will always win it in the Senate. I think you are absolutely going to see less ticket splitting than you once did, and that bodes badly for a party that can't win or compete in at least 25 states. But that isn't where we are right now--both parties won 25 states in 2020. That broadly suggests both parties will remain competitive in the Senate. Obviously you want to get rid of "enemy" Senate seats in states that are going blue, but sometimes you lose elections. The Democrats are not going to win every election and that isn't doom and gloom for them--the Republicans aren't going to win every election either.


My thesis has been that Trump was a really bad candidate and it was an ominous sign that in an election they carried the presidency failed to carry a single senate seat in the 25 most republican states, and lost one in the other 25. They repeated that performance in 2022.

If we repeat the "winning" performances of 2020 and 2022 the result is going to be a 53 seat republican majority.

Truly "winning" over the long haul means taking senate seats from republicans in trump 2020 states and holding more of your own.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 01:25:40 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 10:40:54 AMYour scenario where the GOP rejects Trump in the 2024 primaries (which I am highly skeptical of),

I repeat my offer earlier...I'll bet anyone here any amount of money (may need to get wife's approval if we get much over $10k) to be held in escrow until the primary is over that Trump is not the nominee.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 01:27:16 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 01:25:40 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 10:40:54 AMYour scenario where the GOP rejects Trump in the 2024 primaries (which I am highly skeptical of),

I repeat my offer earlier...I'll bet anyone here any amount of money (may need to get wife's approval if we get much over $10k) to be held in escrow until the primary is over that Trump is not the nominee.

I hope Trump is not the nominee, and I see positive signs he may not be the nominee, but I would not make that bet.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 01:29:21 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 10:57:12 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 09:47:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 07, 2022, 03:55:59 AMRaphael Warnock
Democratic Party
51.4%
1,817,465

Herschel Walker
Republican Party
48.6%
1,719,868

A 2.8% victory in Georgia seems to be quite good.

Really? What would you have considered to be an average result?

The last few results in statewide Georgia elections? You know...the ones that we lost? The one that led to this runoff? The two Senate races from 2020? The other fucking elections in Georgia? What else are we supposed to consider an average result in Georgia? Elections in Idaho?

Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 10:22:53 AMHow much do you know about Herschel Walker?

People vote for the party more than the person these days. The fact that Walker was a doofus helped Warnock win by 2.8% instead of 2% like last time or 1.2% like Ossoff did over Perdue.

QuoteYou can see this in Georgia. Walker was a MAGA candidate, basically a political creation of Trump, and lost. There were 8 other statewide races in Georgia and Republicans won all of them (the closest race was actually the senate race).

Yeah? No fucking shit. This is how it has been in Georgia for awhile. Which is why this, and the other two Senate races, was a good result.

QuoteBut the bigger danger is that Trump picking really bad candidates covered up major problems. Nate Cohn in the NYT found that MAGA republicans had a swing in republican vote of +0.7% compared to 2020. However, other republicans had a swing of 5.6%.

Right. It is called being an incumbent and running in a difficult environment with inflation and shit. The fact that we managed comparable results to 2020 is pretty impressive. But yeah the other point is the Hillary Clinton "why aren't we winning by 50 points?" Well maybe the Republicans are a powerful and formidable opponent? The right wing all around the western world is resurgent in a big way? That is the major problem and we will see if the tired old Democratic party is ultimately up to the challenge.

But you are moving the goal posts all over the place. We are talking about this one election in the context of the last election. You are bringing up big decades long trends and telling us they are not acceptable. Well sure. Reality sometimes sucks, but we have to deal with it.

I think you 100% missed the point I was getting toward. I think everyone here did. It started with hoping to get a general acknowledgement that Herschel Walker had a chance to win the election, and with that I wanted to make a point unrelated to politics.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on December 07, 2022, 01:31:28 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 01:25:40 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 10:40:54 AMYour scenario where the GOP rejects Trump in the 2024 primaries (which I am highly skeptical of),

I repeat my offer earlier...I'll bet anyone here any amount of money (may need to get wife's approval if we get much over $10k) to be held in escrow until the primary is over that Trump is not the nominee.
There is something wrong with you.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on December 07, 2022, 02:03:06 PM
Quote from: FunkMonk on December 06, 2022, 11:25:49 PM
Quote from: viper37 on December 06, 2022, 10:58:31 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 06, 2022, 10:07:18 PMWarnock is going to win easily. I didn't have much anxiety about this one. Huge to have a 51-49. This means we only need 49 Democratic Senators to pass anything.
50.7% - 49.3%.
Not exactly a stunning victory.

I mean, considering the kind of guy he was facing.  Had Warnock faced a semi-decent Republican he might as well lost that run off election.  This is not that encouraging for Dems, imho.

 :hmm:

This is an extremely ignorant post. 
A guy who put a gun to the head of his wife, beat his kids, pay for his mistress' abortions and the Dems, with one of their best, win by a few % points.  Well, 2.8% is much better, but at the time of writing, it was less than a 1% gain.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on December 07, 2022, 02:06:08 PM
Viper has a point.  The fact that 48% of the population voted for a man who claims to have multiple personalities is deeply concerning.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 02:06:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on December 07, 2022, 02:03:06 PMA guy who put a gun to the head of his wife, beat his kids, pay for his mistress' abortions and the Dems, with one of their best, win by a few % points.  Well, 2.8% is much better, but at the time of writing, it was less than a 1% gain.


He's also a guy who played football for the Georgia Bulldogs and won the Heisman Trophy, had a hugely successful pro NFL career, and had enormous name recognition in Georgia.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: PDH on December 07, 2022, 02:25:35 PM
Hey!  Herschel Walker is as qualified as Tommy Tuberville!
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 02:48:16 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 01:21:55 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 10:40:54 AMI don't really ascribe much to your core thesis--that if the Republicans win a state in the electoral college it means they will always win it in the Senate. I think you are absolutely going to see less ticket splitting than you once did, and that bodes badly for a party that can't win or compete in at least 25 states. But that isn't where we are right now--both parties won 25 states in 2020. That broadly suggests both parties will remain competitive in the Senate. Obviously you want to get rid of "enemy" Senate seats in states that are going blue, but sometimes you lose elections. The Democrats are not going to win every election and that isn't doom and gloom for them--the Republicans aren't going to win every election either.


My thesis has been that Trump was a really bad candidate and it was an ominous sign that in an election they carried the presidency failed to carry a single senate seat in the 25 most republican states, and lost one in the other 25. They repeated that performance in 2022.

If we repeat the "winning" performances of 2020 and 2022 the result is going to be a 53 seat republican majority.

Truly "winning" over the long haul means taking senate seats from republicans in trump 2020 states and holding more of your own.

Trump was President for 4 years, one of the hardest things to achieve in electoral politics anywhere in the world. Your concept of bad candidate may need some more exploration. He was also a sitting incumbent with an incredibly passionate base--something most politicians would covet.

I don't really know what you mean by "truly" winning. You win elections or you lose them. Democrats won the Presidency, retained the House, and won the Senate in 2020. They lost the House and retained the Senate (gaining one seat) in 2022--gaining seats in the Senate is generally seen as good in a midterm when your party holds the Presidency, as is muting House seat losses. The goals for 2024 are obviously to win the House back, retain the Senate, and retain the White House. There's no "true" or "false" wins.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 02:49:21 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 01:25:40 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 10:40:54 AMYour scenario where the GOP rejects Trump in the 2024 primaries (which I am highly skeptical of),

I repeat my offer earlier...I'll bet anyone here any amount of money (may need to get wife's approval if we get much over $10k) to be held in escrow until the primary is over that Trump is not the nominee.

I already bet on elections on websites, no reason to do side bets with scumbags.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 02:51:59 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 02:48:16 PMTrump was President for 4 years, one of the hardest things to achieve in electoral politics anywhere in the world. Your concept of bad candidate may need some more exploration. He was also a sitting incumbent with an incredibly passionate base--something most politicians would covet.

The key thing to remember about 2016 was that Hillary was an equally bad candidate...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 02:53:25 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 02:06:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on December 07, 2022, 02:03:06 PMA guy who put a gun to the head of his wife, beat his kids, pay for his mistress' abortions and the Dems, with one of their best, win by a few % points.  Well, 2.8% is much better, but at the time of writing, it was less than a 1% gain.


He's also a guy who played football for the Georgia Bulldogs and won the Heisman Trophy, had a hugely successful pro NFL career, and had enormous name recognition in Georgia.

Correct--and keep in mind this, if you're a partisan Republican in America you largely consume news and media that reinforces your beliefs, not ones that challenge them. A lot of Republican voters aren't watching CNN or reading the New York Times doing deep dives on all these Herschel Walker exposes. In fact, they "hear about them" through conservative media that paints them as fake news and just more dredged up slander.

Meanwhile they are being fed stories that Raphael Warnock assaulted his ex-wife during acrimony over their separation and has all kinds of other scandals associated with him. Those appear to largely be bullshit charges, and the claim that he assaulted his ex-wife appears to be based on an assertion that he ran over her foot (with a car) during an argument, but appears to have been if not totally debunked, never substantiated meaningfully.

If anyone here ever actually interacts with conservatives in real life you'd see a lot of this--when I have discussions with my mostly Republican relatives about the many bad behaviors of the modern GOP, the response is always a long list of very bad things about Democrats (they groom kids for abuse, they hate women, they hate God, they want abortion up to the last second of pregnancy etc etc.) If you say those things enough you start to half-believe them, and compared to that it's easy to overlook that Herschel Walker is not well spoken, and focus on his positives--that he does have a pretty inspiring personal story of coming from extreme poverty and getting a lot of success in life.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 02:55:57 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 02:48:16 PMTrump was President for 4 years, one of the hardest things to achieve in electoral politics anywhere in the world. Your concept of bad candidate may need some more exploration. He was also a sitting incumbent with an incredibly passionate base--something most politicians would covet.

I don't really know what you mean by "truly" winning. You win elections or you lose them. Democrats won the Presidency, retained the House, and won the Senate in 2020. They lost the House and retained the Senate (gaining one seat) in 2022--gaining seats in the Senate is generally seen as good in a midterm when your party holds the Presidency, as is muting House seat losses. The goals for 2024 are obviously to win the House back, retain the Senate, and retain the White House. There's no "true" or "false" wins.

I've been focused on the Senate which is where the problem for democrats is going to reside. You are talking about changes in seats, but that is a function of a baseline set in the 6 years prior.

In 2020 there were 35 seats up and republicans won 20 of them.

In 2022 there were also 35 seats up and republicans also won 20 of them.

The net effect of this is that the democrats have 51 seats because they totally dominated in 2018. That class is up again in 2024 and if 2024 has a repeat of 35 seats up with republicans winning 20, republicans will not only have a majority but will be flirting with a filibuster proof majority. I don't think that will happen but i've been harping on this for a few years and won't give up now. :)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 02:57:03 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 02:49:21 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 01:25:40 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 10:40:54 AMYour scenario where the GOP rejects Trump in the 2024 primaries (which I am highly skeptical of),

I repeat my offer earlier...I'll bet anyone here any amount of money (may need to get wife's approval if we get much over $10k) to be held in escrow until the primary is over that Trump is not the nominee.

I already bet on elections on websites, no reason to do side bets with scumbags.

Which websites?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 03:09:50 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on December 07, 2022, 02:06:08 PMViper has a point.  The fact that 48% of the population voted for a man who claims to have multiple personalities is deeply concerning.

They say the same thing about Pennsylvania voting for Fetterman.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 07, 2022, 03:18:15 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 02:06:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on December 07, 2022, 02:03:06 PMA guy who put a gun to the head of his wife, beat his kids, pay for his mistress' abortions and the Dems, with one of their best, win by a few % points.  Well, 2.8% is much better, but at the time of writing, it was less than a 1% gain.

had a hugely successful pro NFL career

More successful for the team that traded him than the one that got him.
Not totally surprising that he forgot that he played football in the 1990s.  Fans for some of teams he played for then would like to forget that too.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 03:48:20 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 07, 2022, 03:18:15 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 02:06:37 PM
Quote from: viper37 on December 07, 2022, 02:03:06 PMA guy who put a gun to the head of his wife, beat his kids, pay for his mistress' abortions and the Dems, with one of their best, win by a few % points.  Well, 2.8% is much better, but at the time of writing, it was less than a 1% gain.

had a hugely successful pro NFL career

More successful for the team that traded him than the one that got him.
Not totally surprising that he forgot that he played football in the 1990s.  Fans for some of teams he played for then would like to forget that too.

I really didn't pay much attention to the NFL in that era.  I didn't even know he played for the Vikings at one point!  It was just that, for not paying attention to the NFL, I still knew the name Herschell Walker - which is saying something.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 03:52:48 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 03:48:20 PMI really didn't pay much attention to the NFL in that era.  I didn't even know he played for the Vikings at one point!  It was just that, for not paying attention to the NFL, I still knew the name Herschell Walker - which is saying something.

It makes a lot of sense you would know the name. He basically led to the formation of the Cowboys dynasty by being overrated to the degree they were able to trade him for a zillion draft picks that led to the creation of the dynasty's core.

If you want to tell the story of the Cowboys in the 90s, there are probably four players that are essential to the story: Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, and Herschel Walker. Only Walker didn't play for them.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 07, 2022, 03:57:33 PM
His numbers were pretty similar to Ernest Byner, who played in the exact same era.  Byner didn't win the Heisman and didn't do any McD's ads coming out of college though so less name recognition.
Walker had one huge year for Dallas, which they cannily cashed in for a huge draft pick haul.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 04:31:13 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 01:29:21 PMI think you 100% missed the point I was getting toward. I think everyone here did. It started with hoping to get a general acknowledgement that Herschel Walker had a chance to win the election, and with that I wanted to make a point unrelated to politics.

I wasn't worried Walker would win, though I thought it would go this way. A runoff followed by a 1 or 2% Democratic win. Because that was what happened last time and I didn't think Walker brought anything to the table that would change that.

Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 03:52:48 PM
Quote from: Barrister on December 07, 2022, 03:48:20 PMI really didn't pay much attention to the NFL in that era.  I didn't even know he played for the Vikings at one point!  It was just that, for not paying attention to the NFL, I still knew the name Herschell Walker - which is saying something.

It makes a lot of sense you would know the name. He basically led to the formation of the Cowboys dynasty by being overrated to the degree they were able to trade him for a zillion draft picks that led to the creation of the dynasty's core.

If you want to tell the story of the Cowboys in the 90s, there are probably four players that are essential to the story: Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, and Herschel Walker. Only Walker didn't play for them.

Smith also being one of the guys the Cowboys drafted because of the Walker trade.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 04:34:23 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on December 07, 2022, 03:57:33 PMHis numbers were pretty similar to Ernest Byner, who played in the exact same era.

:wub:

A man famous for one and only thing: His touchdown in Super Bowl XXVI AND NOTHING ELSE

(https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/earnest-byner-of-the-washington-redskins-carries-the-ball-against-the-picture-id460519166?s=612x612)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on December 07, 2022, 04:48:43 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjZHiLNXwA8M75s?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 04:58:19 PM
I think if those exits were right Warnock would have gotten around 48% of the vote, so I suspect the exits are a little off--my guess is they overstate Walker's support with white voters by several points; and given results in 2020 I do think those Walker numbers are a little high for Georgia white voters.

The voter file gets updated soon which can give some better data than exit polling.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Eddie Teach on December 07, 2022, 08:20:52 PM
Georgians don't particularly care about Walker's NFL career.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 07, 2022, 09:50:48 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on December 07, 2022, 04:58:19 PMI think if those exits were right Warnock would have gotten around 48% of the vote, so I suspect the exits are a little off--my guess is they overstate Walker's support with white voters by several points; and given results in 2020 I do think those Walker numbers are a little high for Georgia white voters.

The voter file gets updated soon which can give some better data than exit polling.

That data is from the November election since it includes the third party guy I think.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on December 08, 2022, 09:11:32 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 07, 2022, 04:48:43 PM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjZHiLNXwA8M75s?format=jpg&name=small)

So... White men actually are a problem (tm)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on December 08, 2022, 11:13:56 AM
Quote from: Josquius on December 08, 2022, 09:11:32 AM
Quote from: Syt on December 07, 2022, 04:48:43 PM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjZHiLNXwA8M75s?format=jpg&name=small)

So... White men actually are a problem (tm)

White people?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sophie Scholl on December 09, 2022, 07:15:17 AM
Grifter Queen Kyrsten Sinema has pulled her affiliation with the Democrats and is now an Independent.  :rolleyes:
Untitled.png
Official announcement of Twitter (https://twitter.com/kyrstensinema/status/1601170136781664256)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 09, 2022, 07:23:30 AM
Again - I get Manchin. He makes sense, his views are pretty coherent and political.

I have no idea what's going on with Sinema :huh:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 09, 2022, 08:15:53 AM
I've seen a lot of decent political analysis over the last two years that suggests Sinema really just isn't very good at politics and makes bad decisions. Her position is a lot different from Joe Manchin--Joe would actually be accepted into the Republican party because he's pro-life, anti-environment and has a long reputation as being conservative. He could likely switch parties and keep his Senate seat if he really wanted. Joe has been able to hold on to his seat because conservative West Virginias who used to be conservative Democrats have kept voting for him because they've always voted for him. Sinema is Senator solely because of activists in Arizona--largely progressives, who really rallied behind her in 2018. Catering to conservatives was never going to get her re-elected because it wasn't what got her elected in the first place. Progressives agreed to back her because they felt as a moderate she had the best chance of winning a general--but more mainstream Democrat Mark Kelly winning twice in two years by about the same margins Sinema did showed they didn't need her anymore.

Sinema, she has too many positions that make her totally unacceptable with Republicans, polling has shown her as being one of the least popular current Senators because both Arizona Democrats and Republicans mostly dislike her. She has certainly generated some fans on the GOP side with her behavior, but not "fans that are going to vote for her instead of a Republican." If she has any sort of experienced political staff, she would know that going Ind. doesn't really protect her from the challenge from Ruben Gallegos on the left--the Democrats just aren't going to stand down in Arizona in '24 and let her run unopposed like they do with Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT); she likely can rob the Democrats of that seat because of splitting the ticket, but she will probably pull sub-10% of the vote which won't be a viable showing to continue having any relevance in elected politics afterward.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 09, 2022, 08:19:46 AM
Yeah her leaving is a disaster for 2024 as it probably means the Republicans pick up a seat if she runs for re-election. Damn one step forward, two steps back. But it kind of sounds like she will continue to basically still be a Democrat, to the extent she currently is, so I guess it won't be a problem until then.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 09, 2022, 08:26:25 AM
It feels like there's also an element of almost cosplay about it. As well as those example, given that it's Arizona I can't help but wonder if in her own mind/self-perception she has been the McCain of the left: a little difficult and slightly independent.

What seems missing is any sense that in all of those cases that comes from fairly deep principles/political views and required a bank of political trust and capital from your voters. Instead we just get the empty performance of being a maverick with none of the substance.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on December 09, 2022, 10:10:28 AM
Is recall a viable option?  Maybe she can be gotten rid of before the 2024 season that way.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 09, 2022, 10:42:47 AM
I don't believe any Federal offices allow recall, while the constitution gives management of Federal elections over to the states in which they occur, the states are bound by how the U.S. Constitution defines those offices and AFAIK it has never allowed a recall for Congress / Senate. It would at the very least require a law being passed at the Federal level, but it would have to pass constitutional muster, which given some of the text of Article II I doubt it would.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on December 09, 2022, 11:09:04 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 09, 2022, 07:23:30 AMAgain - I get Manchin. He makes sense, his views are pretty coherent and political.

I have no idea what's going on with Sinema :huh:

She's been pretty consistent throughout her political career, socially liberal and moderate to conservative on everything else; in the pocket of the financial industry (she has always been on the financial/banking committees in the House and Senate).

She's run into problems because polarization has raised the political temperature generally and the razor thin difference in the Senate focused a glaring spotlight on her. 
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on December 09, 2022, 11:19:31 AM
Sinema's positions may not have changed much--but what is important is she wasn't a U.S. Senator until 2018 and that happened almost solely because Arizona progressive Democrats were willing to rally behind her. She assumed she could piss those voters off without consequence and that just proved to not be true at all, which has functionally ended her career as a U.S. Senator.

Manchin has a very different situation in that West Virginia progressives (who are a far tinier portion of the vote than in Arizona) have always loathed him, but he has long familial and personal ties to both moderate and conservative voters in his state--he was a popular Governor, and had been in West Virginia politics a major figure for most of the 1990s as a party power broker in the legislature. He also comes from a storied West Virginia political dynasty that goes back to the 1950s. Manchin is the rare sort of politician who has regularly been endorsed by both his state's Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO, and has always had significant support from mining and other interests in his state. Manchin catering to the right isn't performative stupidity--it is actually how he views the world because he's a conservative guy who made his nut as a coal broker, and it is absolutely a requirement to get elected in West Virginia.

Sinema massively misread the room in Arizona and failed to understand the coalition that elevated her from obscurity into the U.S. Senate and what she would need to do to hold on.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on December 12, 2022, 03:52:38 AM
Quote from: alfred russel on December 07, 2022, 09:47:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on December 07, 2022, 03:55:59 AMRaphael Warnock
Democratic Party
51.4%
1,817,465

Herschel Walker
Republican Party
48.6%
1,719,868

A 2.8% victory in Georgia seems to be quite good.

Really? What would you have considered to be an average result?

A republican win by about that margin.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on December 27, 2022, 09:22:17 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/27/new-york-congressman-elect-george-santos-admits-lying-about-college-and-work-history

This is amazing  :lol:

QuoteNew York congressman-elect admits lying about college and work history
Republican George Santos, elected to represent parts of Long Island and Queens, admits 'embellishing résumé'


Tue 27 Dec 2022 09.49 GMT
A New York Republican congressman-elect has admitted that he lied about his job experience and college education during his successful campaign for a seat in the US House.

George Santos, who was elected in November to represent parts of northern Long Island and north-east Queens, told the New York Post: "My sins here are embellishing my résumé. I'm sorry."

He added: "I campaigned talking about the people's concerns, not my résumé ... I intend to deliver on the promises I made during the campaign."

The New York Times raised questions last week about the life story that Santos, 34, had presented during his campaign.

The Queens resident had said he obtained a degree from Baruch College in New York, but the school said that could not be confirmed.


On Monday, Santos acknowledged: "I didn't graduate from any institution of higher learning. I'm embarrassed and sorry for having embellished my résumé."

He added: "I own up to that. ... We do stupid things in life."

Santos had also said he had worked for Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, but neither company could find any records verifying that. Santos told the Post he had "never worked directly" for either financial firm, saying he had used a "poor choice of words".

He told the Post that Link Bridge, an investment company where he was a vice-president, did business with both.

Another news outlet, the Jewish American site The Forward, had questioned a claim on Santos's campaign website that his grandparents "fled Jewish persecution in Ukraine, settled in Belgium, and again fled persecution during WWII".

"I never claimed to be Jewish," Santos told the Post. "I am Catholic. Because I learned my maternal family had a Jewish background I said I was 'Jew-ish'." ( :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol: )


Santos first ran for Congress in 2020 and lost. He ran again in 2022 and won in the district that includes some Long Island suburbs and a small part of Queens.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 10:01:50 AM
One assumes there'll be no consequences for the guy?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on December 27, 2022, 10:06:08 AM
Sloppy research on the opposition candidate by the Dems, if that's the case.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 27, 2022, 10:23:43 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 10:01:50 AMOne assumes there'll be no consequences for the guy?

It appears NY does not have a recall law.

https://ballotpedia.org/Laws_governing_recall_in_New_York
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 11:55:40 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 10:01:50 AMOne assumes there'll be no consequences for the guy?

Why would there be consequences for electing a lying dope?  Surely there are a few UK/Canadian/other democracie's MPs who fit that description as well.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on December 27, 2022, 12:05:21 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 11:55:40 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 10:01:50 AMOne assumes there'll be no consequences for the guy?

Why would there be consequences for electing a lying dope?  Surely there are a few UK/Canadian/other democracie's MPs who fit that description as well.

If anything I want to know what all the opposition research/investigators were doing that he only got called out after the fact.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: mongers on December 27, 2022, 12:19:47 PM
Quote from: garbon on December 27, 2022, 12:05:21 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 11:55:40 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 10:01:50 AMOne assumes there'll be no consequences for the guy?

Why would there be consequences for electing a lying dope?  Surely there are a few UK/Canadian/other democracie's MPs who fit that description as well.

If anything I want to know what all the opposition research/investigators were doing that he only got called out after the fact.

I guess admidst the tirade of BS that spouts from these new Trumpist candidates, it's hard to not just tune it all out.

Besides, given Trump behaviour, it's hard not to think many voters love these lying, cheating scum and are more than happy to vote them in.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 12:26:22 PM
Quote from: mongers on December 27, 2022, 12:19:47 PMBesides, given Trump behaviour, it's hard not to think many voters love these lying, cheating scum and are more than happy to vote them in.

No doubt.  There were a few articles on GOP voters in the Senate election in Georgie where the executive summary was "we know and don't care if Herschel Walker is crap...we need a Senate majority".
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 27, 2022, 01:33:57 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 11:55:40 AMWhy would there be consequences for electing a lying dope?  Surely there are a few UK/Canadian/other democracie's MPs who fit that description as well.
I can't think of one quite like this just entirely fabricating their life story.

The nearest example I saw someone suggest was John Stonehouse, a Labour MP in the 70s. But all of his frauds were once he was an MP. He had various business interests that went wrong, he was also having an affair with his secretary. He faked his own death to move to Australia with his secretary but was arrested, extradited and charged with 21 charges of fraud, theft, forgery, conspiracy to defraud etc. But he was on bail for most of that time and never resigned as an MP - he didn't even get the whip withdrawn because Labour only had a majority of three. So he didn't resign until he was actually convicted.

He was later identified as spy for the Czechs (and one of only two cabinet ministers who were confirmed as a spy - the other, also for the Czechs, was a Tory MP and also a minister in the 60s) - although that only came out after the Cold War. Thatcher was made aware in 1980 (when he was in prison) and agreed to a cover up on the basis that while they knew he was a spy, they didn't have enough evidence to prosecute him. There's an upcoming TV show about him starring Matthew Macfadyen.

Other than that maybe Robert Maxwell who was a Labour MP for a while as well as a press baron. His background was incredibly opaque (and he may have also been a spy - although it's unclear if it was for the Brits, the Czechs, the Israelis or all three :lol:). But it was a very different context. He was a Jew from the Czech army fleeing his way across the continent and eventually joining the British army who somehow then became a very successful publisher post-war and then invented a past in a Europe without many written records of who he'd been.

QuoteIf anything I want to know what all the opposition research/investigators were doing that he only got called out after the fact.
I believe the NYT did a few stories which he just denied. So it feels odd because there were definitely signs there was smoke.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 01:40:49 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 11:55:40 AMWhy would there be consequences for electing a lying dope?  Surely there are a few UK/Canadian/other democracie's MPs who fit that description as well.

In some democracies, lying like that about who you are as a candidate would typically lead to a resignation once it was discovered.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 27, 2022, 01:48:17 PM
Quote from: garbon on December 27, 2022, 12:05:21 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 11:55:40 AM
Quote from: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 10:01:50 AMOne assumes there'll be no consequences for the guy?

Why would there be consequences for electing a lying dope?  Surely there are a few UK/Canadian/other democracie's MPs who fit that description as well.

If anything I want to know what all the opposition research/investigators were doing that he only got called out after the fact.

Yeah. A non-Jew pretending to be a Jew to win on Long Island and the Democrats let him get away with it in a very tight national House election. Well played Mr. Santos.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on December 27, 2022, 01:50:18 PM
It's so absurdly shameless though. "I didn't say I was jewish, I said that I was jew-ish" is the kind of thing I'd expect in a scene from The Office, not real life  :lol:

In Spain the most famous case I can think of is Luís Roldán, appointed general director of the Civil Guard in the 1990s with an entirely fabricated resumé - claimed to be an engineer and economist, with master degrees and shit (he never finished high school). Predictably, the dude stole hand over first and fled the country.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 01:54:23 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 27, 2022, 01:48:17 PMYeah. A non-Jew pretending to be a Jew to win on Long Island and the Democrats let him get away with it in a very tight national House election. Well played Mr. Santos.

One side acts unethically and the blame gets placed with the other side for not catching them, and congratulations are extended to the unethical actor rather than censure.

Sometimes the US seems very foreign to me, in spite of everything.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on December 27, 2022, 01:59:15 PM
Is Mr. Santos apologizing to the Times for claiming they were out to get him.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 27, 2022, 02:04:33 PM
Quote from: celedhring on December 27, 2022, 01:50:18 PMIt's so absurdly shameless though. "I didn't say I was jewish, I said that I was jew-ish" is the kind of thing I'd expect in a scene from The Office, not real life  :lol:
I saw someone on Twitter say this may be the closest we get to if George Costanza was elected :lol:

QuoteIn Spain the most famous case I can think of is Luís Roldán, appointed general director of the Civil Guard in the 1990s with an entirely fabricated resumé - claimed to be an engineer and economist, with master degrees and shit (he never finished high school). Predictably, the dude stole hand over first and fled the country.
Not political but on fabricated lives I read that Javier Cercas novel about Enric Marco which was extraordinary - both the novel and just the story. And an interesting read of what is behind this sort of thing.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 02:59:49 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 01:40:49 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 11:55:40 AMWhy would there be consequences for electing a lying dope?  Surely there are a few UK/Canadian/other democracie's MPs who fit that description as well.

In some democracies, lying like that about who you are as a candidate would typically lead to a resignation once it was discovered.

This requires a sense of shame. A quality our political class as discarded rather abruptly in recent years.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 27, 2022, 03:03:43 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 02:59:49 PMThis requires a sense of shame. A quality our political class as discarded rather abruptly in recent years.
Or public opinion that responds to scandals which is also absent.

I could be wrong but my theory has always been that it's not about the virtue of politicians with a sense of shame, but responding to public opprobrium that drives resignations.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on December 27, 2022, 03:17:25 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 27, 2022, 02:04:33 PM
Quote from: celedhring on December 27, 2022, 01:50:18 PMIt's so absurdly shameless though. "I didn't say I was jewish, I said that I was jew-ish" is the kind of thing I'd expect in a scene from The Office, not real life  :lol:
I saw someone on Twitter say this may be the closest we get to if George Costanza was elected :lol:

QuoteIn Spain the most famous case I can think of is Luís Roldán, appointed general director of the Civil Guard in the 1990s with an entirely fabricated resumé - claimed to be an engineer and economist, with master degrees and shit (he never finished high school). Predictably, the dude stole hand over first and fled the country.
Not political but on fabricated lives I read that Javier Cercas novel about Enric Marco which was extraordinary - both the novel and just the story. And an interesting read of what is behind this sort of thing.

Never read it (I like Cercas' books a lot though, he has a knack for novelizing contemporary Spanish events/people). Does it touch upon Marco's time as head of CNT? IIRC that was also intertwined within a web of imposture. Quite the character.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 03:31:57 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 27, 2022, 03:03:43 PMOr public opinion that responds to scandals which is also absent.

I could be wrong but my theory has always been that it's not about the virtue of politicians with a sense of shame, but responding to public opprobrium that drives resignations.

Agreed.

One of the key requirements to counter corruption - of whatever kind - is public outrage. And one of the fundamental enabling mechanisms of corruption is public sentiment that accepts, excuses, or otherwise normalizes it.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 03:36:01 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 27, 2022, 03:03:43 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 02:59:49 PMThis requires a sense of shame. A quality our political class as discarded rather abruptly in recent years.
Or public opinion that responds to scandals which is also absent.

I could be wrong but my theory has always been that it's not about the virtue of politicians with a sense of shame, but responding to public opprobrium that drives resignations.

I don't disagree.  It's a symbiotic relationship.

Much as in the same way that I think term limits are illogical (essentially an admission and surrender that an electorate cannot control itself)...but then the electorate will keep reelecting outmoded fossils, showing that any outrage/frustration against entrenched career politicians presents itself too much with apathy.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 27, 2022, 03:40:59 PM
There are some parallels with Elizabeth Warren claiming Indian descent.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on December 27, 2022, 03:43:34 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 27, 2022, 03:40:59 PMThere are some parallels with Elizabeth Warren claiming Indian descent.

I think Santos created a much broader fake identity
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 27, 2022, 03:49:22 PM
Quote from: garbon on December 27, 2022, 03:43:34 PMI think Santos created a much broader fake identity

Surely.  He dialed it up to 11.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 27, 2022, 04:13:51 PM
Quote from: Jacob on December 27, 2022, 01:54:23 PM
Quote from: Valmy on December 27, 2022, 01:48:17 PMYeah. A non-Jew pretending to be a Jew to win on Long Island and the Democrats let him get away with it in a very tight national House election. Well played Mr. Santos.

One side acts unethically and the blame gets placed with the other side for not catching them, and congratulations are extended to the unethical actor rather than censure.

Sometimes the US seems very foreign to me, in spite of everything.

There is no mechanism to censure beyond not voting for him in the next election. So maybe he will pay dearly in 2024. I don't know.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on December 27, 2022, 06:26:04 PM
His gamble is probably that most people will forget over two years...his opponent might remind them when that time comes...but it will also be a Presidential election year, and if enough down-ballot voters are more "MAH GOP Majorituh!" then "my Rep is a fraud", it won't matter.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on December 27, 2022, 07:17:45 PM
I think that Santos will be in a lot of trouble over his financial disclosure statements, plus the fact that he didn't live in the Congressional district in which he ran.

He'll take his seat because Kevin McCarthy will suck even the most vile cock in order to become speaker, but after that, we'll see.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on December 29, 2022, 03:46:46 AM
(https://i.redd.it/9mw0s9schs8a1.jpg)

:lol: You have to wonder why his opponents or the press did not point this out earlier. Or did they and voters did not care?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on December 29, 2022, 04:28:48 AM
Maybe his mom was one of those who inhaled a whole bunch of debris dust on 9/11 and later died of cancer? :hmm:

( j/k :P )
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on December 29, 2022, 05:30:40 AM
She is probably alive and well.  :P
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 29, 2022, 06:17:33 AM
That's incredible. I scrolled past earlier and just assumed they were years apart, not five months :lol:

It is also the sort of thing that you feel opposition research should pick up.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 29, 2022, 07:30:25 AM
I would be interested in the reactions of the people who voted for him.  They might not care. 
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 29, 2022, 08:04:48 AM
This may just be my perception and total nonsense. But I suspect Long Island is a place where they absolutely do care if someone's lying about relatives dying in 9/11.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 29, 2022, 08:40:29 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 29, 2022, 08:04:48 AMThis may just be my perception and total nonsense. But I suspect Long Island is a place where they absolutely do care if someone's lying about relatives dying in 9/11.

Trump upended a lot of perceptions about deeply held Republican values.  Honoring the military (McCain), families of dead soldiers, the pope, etc.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 29, 2022, 09:03:16 AM
Sure - but this isn't a district that Trump ever won, Santos only won by 55/45% and my comment was more about Long Island voters, not Republican voters because it's not a solid Republican district.

Although I'm not even sure on those specific points. McCain was not ever really loved by the GOP base, he was the best of a bad bunch in 2008 and they far preferred Palin. Trump mocked/attacked the families of dead Muslim soldiers which I think is an important distinction. And I don't think Republicans ever really cared about the Pope (not least because until relatively recently, Catholics voted Democrat).

I think Trump represents a strand that has always existed in the modern GOP - albeit one that was not normally the face of the party and about which the traditional WASPy elite and neo-cons slightly held their nose. I think Trump upended less than he consummated.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on December 29, 2022, 11:24:15 AM
The GOP voters who "far preferred Palin" were not the base in 2008 like they are now.  I think that you are correct, though, that Trump simply activated an already-existing strand of thought in the Republican arty, and made it okay to support despicable policies and politicians behind the gig leaf of MAGA/"America First."  For Republicans today, the ends justify almost any means, and that's fairly new.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on December 29, 2022, 11:38:40 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on December 29, 2022, 09:03:16 AMSure - but this isn't a district that Trump ever won, Santos only won by 55/45% and my comment was more about Long Island voters, not Republican voters because it's not a solid Republican district.

Although I'm not even sure on those specific points. McCain was not ever really loved by the GOP base, he was the best of a bad bunch in 2008 and they far preferred Palin. Trump mocked/attacked the families of dead Muslim soldiers which I think is an important distinction. And I don't think Republicans ever really cared about the Pope (not least because until relatively recently, Catholics voted Democrat).

I think Trump represents a strand that has always existed in the modern GOP - albeit one that was not normally the face of the party and about which the traditional WASPy elite and neo-cons slightly held their nose. I think Trump upended less than he consummated.

Honoring the military didn't use to be about only the ones you like.  Catholics IMO have been voting Republican since the 70s.  Oppostion to forced busing was from blue collar "ethnic whites."  Look at the composition of the court.  Catholics are huge on right to life.

I concede that a Republican ideology focused largely on pure opposition to anything Democratic probably starts with Gingrich, and I was going to say that embracing alt-truth was started by Trump but that really started with climate denying, which predates Trump.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 29, 2022, 12:05:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 29, 2022, 11:38:40 AMHonoring the military didn't use to be about only the ones you like. 
Unless they're John Kerry, say :P

QuoteCatholics IMO have been voting Republican since the 70s.  Oppostion to forced busing was from blue collar "ethnic whites."  Look at the composition of the court.  Catholics are huge on right to life.
White Catholics mostly since the 70s were a pretty big swing vote/bellwether.

They went for Reagan and voted GOP in the 80s, they swung back to Clinton in the 90s, then to Bush in the 2000s. White Catholics went narrowly for McCain in 2008 and then swung more strongly to Romney and then Trump (falling back a little in 2020).

They're a really important part of the GOP coalition, especially at an elite level because Catholics (including a large number of converts) have provided a lot of the intellectual meat of the conservative legal project. But they didnt' move to the GOP in the 70s and stay there; they moved to the GOP in the 2010s. What's unclear to me is why. It seems like it could be because Catholic identity hardened. Fewer people who are relatively non-observant cultural Catholics identify as Catholics, possibly in response to a shift from an American Church that included more culturally open, Vatican 2 leaders to more strident statements on politics and a shift to Ratzinger bishops and cardinals - which may shift back with Francis' appointments making the cultural Catholic feel more welcome. Or it might be that there's been a swing in that group as a whole.

But all through that time there are lots of Latino Catholics and Black Catholics who didn't start voting GOP and those groups have been about 20-35% of the Catholic vote for that entire time.

QuoteI concede that a Republican ideology focused largely on pure opposition to anything Democratic probably starts with Gingrich, and I was going to say that embracing alt-truth was started by Trump but that really started with climate denying, which predates Trump.
I think Gingrich is important - but I don't know if that's where it starts, if only because I think Gingrich winning the leadership is the end of a process. He had set up the Conservative Opportunity Society, helped fundraise and support selected candidates who backed him in many races - as well as building support with existing Congressmen. He did a lot of work either establishing something or working from a base that already existed.

Honestly I think the end of the Cold War (and victory in it) is a big part of it. I think it removes a shackle of forced responsibility on American politics.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on December 29, 2022, 01:32:37 PM
Gingrich is kind of weird because he made lots of policy promises on his "Contract with America" (many of which I was an enthusiastic supporter for at the time) and he ended up fulfilling some because of the surprising cooperation of Bill Clinton. Yet despite that hating Clinton with a blinding passion and trying to destroy him turned out to be mainly what he and his coalition cared about, which wasn't really what many Americans thought they were voting for when they put a huge Republican Majority into power in 1994. And really that seems to be the main Republican "policy" issue from then on. The Democrats are evil and want to destroy America...oh and tax cuts we can't afford that won't actually cut taxes for the overwhelming majority of tax payers.

Ok that is not really fair to Dubya who did have a whole slate of policy things he wanted to do (and then went against many of them after 9/11). He is kind of the exception.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on December 30, 2022, 04:10:04 PM
Quote from: Syt on December 29, 2022, 04:28:48 AMMaybe his mom was one of those who inhaled a whole bunch of debris dust on 9/11 and later died of cancer? :hmm:

( j/k :P )
:lol: It looks like he tried this defence - again there's no evidence it's true :blink:
QuoteNoah Shachtman
@NoahShachtman
NEW: Despite George Santos' assertion that his mother worked within the World Trade Center -- and died of a 9/11-related illness -- @RollingStone could find no employment records that would place her in or around the towers on September 11th.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 03, 2023, 02:45:05 PM
The GOP does not have enough discipline to vote for McCarthy as speaker.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on January 03, 2023, 02:58:47 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 03, 2023, 02:45:05 PMThe GOP does not have enough discipline to vote for McCarthy as speaker.

Alas, it's because McCarthy isn't quite Nazi enough, so the holdouts want at least Attila the Hun.  One of the leaders of the Republican rebels is Bob Good, who used to be my congressman before redistricting.  He is an utter moron dedicated to winning the war against unAmerican cultural values (like secular education).  Good is bad and can only make the country worse.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 03, 2023, 03:53:25 PM
The party seems dysfunctional. If they cannot even agree on a speaker, how much common legislative ground do they actually have?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 03, 2023, 04:29:00 PM
I think McCarthy is basically fucked. Up to this point, incoming Republican leaders have always had enough of a margin that Bob Goods and such couldn't block, but the margin is so narrow now, and the hardcore elements of the Freedom Caucus so recalcitrantly stupid, that I think there is literally nothing McCarthy can do to get to < 5 defections (which is what he needs--assuming Jeffries doesn't let some of his people vote present.)

This means McCarthy won't be Speaker. But who will be? The thing is the rebels can block McCarthy, but when you flip it and start pushing for an extremist candidate, what is their answer when 5 or more moderate Republicans refuse to vote for that person?

It is obvious they are angling for Jim Jordan, who is a pretty ghoulish and terrible person and extremely far right--but, that being said, he is "more adult" than the rebels themselves. He was basically them 10 years ago, but in the last 4-6 years he has started working more with the party leadership and behaving, which may be enough to convince any moderates to vote for him. He is definitely the farthest right candidate I think can pass through, but I'm not sure that means he actually can. You get into a point where some of the mainstream GOP may feel like saying fuck no because they don't want to just cave to the minority of their caucus.

I really can't predict what happens--the bigger thing is, however it ends up, this will not be a U.S. House that is capable of doing any meaningful legislation, and it wouldn't shock me if things like the debt ceiling increase require a discharge petition to occur.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 03, 2023, 08:53:31 PM
So McCarthy failed on every vote today eh? Bizarre.

But surely they will come back tomorrow and restore order right?

Meanwhile it seems like Democratic discipline is firm. Nobody breaking to bail McCarthy out. That is a good sign for our new leader, this Jefferies guy.

I am also a little surprised that of all the Texas Republicans only Chip Roy is drinking the crazy sauce. Usually our best and brightest are at the forefront of stuff like this. The rest of the country is becoming more insane than Texas Republicans.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HVC on January 03, 2023, 08:58:25 PM
Read some dems brought popcorn to troll the GOP
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2023, 09:04:50 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 03, 2023, 08:53:31 PMMeanwhile it seems like Democratic discipline is firm. Nobody breaking to bail McCarthy out.

I wonder if there is a candidate who would be agreeable to both the anti-Trump wing of the GOP and the Democrats.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 03, 2023, 09:55:24 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2023, 09:04:50 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 03, 2023, 08:53:31 PMMeanwhile it seems like Democratic discipline is firm. Nobody breaking to bail McCarthy out.

I wonder if there is a candidate who would be agreeable to both the anti-Trump wing of the GOP and the Democrats.

There might be. Not McCarthy though.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2023, 09:57:59 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 03, 2023, 09:55:24 PMThere might be. Not McCarthy though.

I agree.  Dicked around too much about Jan 6.

Which makes me wonder what beef Teh Tea Party has with him.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 03, 2023, 11:11:45 PM
Any GOP speaker who had to rely on Democratic votes to get in would be completely compromised.  That would ensure the undying emnity of the trumpenproletariat wing and the need to rely on backing from the Democrats to stay in the position.  It just seems untenable.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 12:08:50 AM
Yeah, that's the same problem with some of the wonk-takes about scenarios where Jeffries could win. Sure, there are such scenarios. But it wouldn't matter. Winning a Speaker election isn't like winning the Presidency--you need your majority for basically almost all major decisions you undertake--in the normal order of business this is not true because the caucus doesn't constantly file motions to rebel against you, but in a weird Jeffries as Speaker scenario that wouldn't be the case because he would have no real majority caucus.

Even more unrealistic than the marginal cases where Jeffries could somehow get in, is a scenario where he could actually meaningfully run such a disordered House and keep the position.

That is also the problem if McCarthy got in with the help of the Democrats--which he could do without Democratic votes, he just needs enough of them to vote Present instead of for another candidate to change his math. But the problem is, what does that get McCarthy? He will be Speaker in a +5 R House in which 20 or so House members are actively angling to embarrass and sabotage him at all times--including some who may just randomly demand votes on the Speakership to be held at any given time. Under current rules they cannot easily do that--the rules were changed in 2019 so that a motion to vacate the chair cannot be brought by individual members, but only by caucuses (essentially meaning a majority of the majority party.) But there is not any real scenario where I see McCarthy winning the Speakership with that rule intact, which means he would get Boehnered, i.e. one day one of his drooling imbeciles like Gaetz or Gosar would wake up and convulse until they decided it was time to randomly get attention on DailyCaller.com and try to undermine McCarthy's leadership.

The real issue McCarthy has isn't just this election process, it is how does he actually run the House with a +5 majority when 20 of his own members don't seem willing to even go along with him on basic process stuff that is almost mandatory to make the House work? A McCarthy Speakership will need Democrats for all substantive procedural motions and votes, which is a really bad place to be. It massively undermined Boehner that he had to rely on Democrats repeatedly to get the most contentious legislation passed (like the debt ceiling agreement with Obama), McCarthy would face trouble like that on basically a monthly basis.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 12:36:06 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 03, 2023, 03:53:25 PMThe party seems dysfunctional. If they cannot even agree on a speaker, how much common legislative ground do they actually have?
They're agreed that an attempted coup isn't that serious. Aside from that all I've got in terms of common GOP agenda are judges and tax cuts - and obviously the House don't vote on judges.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 04, 2023, 01:25:30 AM
You have to wonder if the sane Republicans will eventually want a party without the crazy saboteurs again and either purge them from the party or split somehow.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 01:46:14 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 04, 2023, 01:25:30 AMYou have to wonder if the sane Republicans will eventually want a party without the crazy saboteurs again and either purge them from the party or split somehow.

They can't win without them. Hard to win with them as well.

Everything was set up for a big Republican victory in 2024 but with their poor showing in 2022, I am starting to hope that maybe things might be alright. The Republicans flailing about might mean that perhaps them winning the House in 2022 might be a saving grace. I won't get my hopes up though. The Democrats somehow have to win Senate Seats in Ohio and Montana to keep control. Then we have the fucked up situation in Arizona. And I am just sort of assuming Manchin goes down in West Virginia. And a Republican Senate would be a national disaster. But who knows how things might look in 2024? Maybe the Republicans might self-destruct? Things never work out that well though and the Republicans are a powerful and formidable political juggernaut despite their disfunction.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Solmyr on January 04, 2023, 05:03:10 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2023, 09:57:59 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 03, 2023, 09:55:24 PMThere might be. Not McCarthy though.

I agree.  Dicked around too much about Jan 6.

Which makes me wonder what beef Teh Tea Party has with him.

Not dicking around enough about Jan 6.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on January 04, 2023, 05:07:59 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 04, 2023, 01:25:30 AMYou have to wonder if the sane Republicans will eventually want a party without the crazy saboteurs again and either purge them from the party or split somehow.

Any sane person left the GOP years ago.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tamas on January 04, 2023, 08:52:45 AM
I am not sure if this is the right thread for this. I am also not sure if AOC should need a lame excuse for talking to people who want to see her dead, but as far as lame excuses go this seems pretty lame. "Factchecking?"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/04/aoc-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-reveals-why-she-was-talking-to-far-right-republicans

QuoteDuring a succession of votes for House speaker on Tuesday, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was seen talking on the House floor with the far-right Republicans Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar, the latter who once tweeted video depicting him slashing her in the neck with a sword.

U.S. Representatives gather for the vote for new House Speaker on the first day of the new Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington<br>U.S. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks with reporters in the Will Rogers corridor just off the floor of the House of Representatives as he arrives for the vote for the new Speaker of the House on the first day of the 118th Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., January 3, 2023. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
McCarthy faces long battle for House speaker after he falls short on third vote
Read more
The New York Democrat, a progressive star, told MSNBC: "In chaos, anything is possible, especially in this era."

The chaos in Congress on Tuesday concerned the California representative Kevin McCarthy's attempt to become House speaker, against opposition from the right of his party.

Gosar, from Arizona, was censured in November 2021 for tweeting an anime-style video of violence done to Ocasio-Cortez and Joe Biden.

On Tuesday, he was among 20 Republicans opposing McCarthy by the third ballot. So was Gaetz of Florida, a ringleader who nominated Jim Jordan of Ohio, a rightwinger loyal to McCarthy, to give the rebels someone to vote for.

Ocasio-Cortez, popularly known as AOC, was seen talking to Gosar and Gaetz. She told the Intercept her conversation with Gaetz was a "factcheck".

"McCarthy was suggesting he could get Dems to walk away to lower his threshold," Ocasio-Cortez said. "And I factchecked and said absolutely not."


To be speaker, any candidate must reach a majority of representatives present. At one point on Tuesday, Ocasio-Cortez was absent when her name was called. She voted, for Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the House, when those absent were called on again.

Votes for speaker go on until they are resolved. The last multi-ballot process, in 1923, lasted three days. In 1855-56, it took months to resolve the issue.

Ocasio-Cortez said she discussed adjournment strategy with Gosar.

"Some of us in the House of Representatives are independent in certain ways from our party," she told MSNBC. "And ... these machinations are happening on the floor.

"And sometimes the leadership of your party, in this case, the Republican party, will be making claims in order to try to twist arms and get people in line. And a lot of times, information and truth is currency.

"So sometimes to be able to factcheck some of the claims that McCarthy is making, whether Democrats are going to defect or not, etc, is important in order to keep him honest and to keep people honest in general."
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on January 04, 2023, 08:56:41 AM
Wouldn't the other part be the one factchecking?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 08:57:00 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 01:46:14 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 04, 2023, 01:25:30 AMYou have to wonder if the sane Republicans will eventually want a party without the crazy saboteurs again and either purge them from the party or split somehow.

They can't win without them. Hard to win with them as well.

Everything was set up for a big Republican victory in 2024 but with their poor showing in 2022, I am starting to hope that maybe things might be alright. The Republicans flailing about might mean that perhaps them winning the House in 2022 might be a saving grace. I won't get my hopes up though. The Democrats somehow have to win Senate Seats in Ohio and Montana to keep control. Then we have the fucked up situation in Arizona. And I am just sort of assuming Manchin goes down in West Virginia. And a Republican Senate would be a national disaster. But who knows how things might look in 2024? Maybe the Republicans might self-destruct? Things never work out that well though and the Republicans are a powerful and formidable political juggernaut despite their disfunction.

If you follow closely and look around the edges, there is at least some sign that the GOP is making marginal improvements in terms of being non-crazy. It isn't much to hold out hope for, and as you say by 2024 it will still be a terrible enough party that it's a disaster when they take the Senate--and they have to be favored to do so unless we have a really good Democratic cycle that year.

But when I say "non-crazy", I don't necessarily mean "a force for good." To me the real crazies are the Republicans who are going into elected government to basically see the government collapse. A lot of the worst Freedom Caucus ilk meet that definition. They are the ones who tried to implode our government over the debt ceiling and have caused a number of problems over the years.

What I see emerging is a Fidesz like GOP, that actually does care about passing legislation, but is still fairly antidemocratic. If you look at some of the things Josh Hawley and the people around him have been pushing, it is very much a move towards a "socially conservative, economically liberal" party. It will be ironic when/if this occurs (and I think that is the direction it is going), because much of our current trouble can be traced to the astroturfing by libertarian billionaires who helped build the early Tea Party. But I can't think of anything more on life support in the GOP than libertarian principles. It used to be you could just argue the GOP often gave their views short shrift, but a significant number of modern Republicans are actively antithetical to libertarian principles.

There's a reason you have a wing of the GOP that just wants to go full scorched earth towards corporate executives and many of their former wealthy masters. And unfortunately for us, there are more votes that way, right? Hawley said as much over the railroad strike. He basically asked, "Why are we supporting these companies instead of the blue collar workers that now vote for us?" Because the company CEOs give them donations? Because of vague pro-corporate principles? Hawley clearly does not care about either of those things, and he correctly realizes that even just in the railroad industry alone there are more Republican voters than the entire sum total of all corporate executives in America, corp executives are great for fundraising--they represent essentially no votes in society at large because they are such a small "ruling class."

But one thing about this new ethos is it isn't about obstructionism, it will actually want to pass legislation--including beefing up social welfare systems. But they're also going to continue to try to entrench antidemocratic systems in our government and push an aggressively social conservative agenda through legislation wherever they can.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 08:58:58 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 04, 2023, 08:52:45 AMI am not sure if this is the right thread for this. I am also not sure if AOC should need a lame excuse for talking to people who want to see her dead, but as far as lame excuses go this seems pretty lame. "Factchecking?"

Not sure why she needs an excuse to talk to a fellow member of Congress, that is part of the ordinary way the House operates.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tamas on January 04, 2023, 09:00:12 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 08:58:58 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 04, 2023, 08:52:45 AMI am not sure if this is the right thread for this. I am also not sure if AOC should need a lame excuse for talking to people who want to see her dead, but as far as lame excuses go this seems pretty lame. "Factchecking?"

Not sure why she needs an excuse to talk to a fellow member of Congress, that is part of the ordinary way the House operates.

Yeah I'd think the same but the ultra-lame excuse raised my suspicion that she was up to some trickery she wanted to keep hush-hush.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on January 04, 2023, 09:08:54 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 04, 2023, 09:00:12 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 08:58:58 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 04, 2023, 08:52:45 AMI am not sure if this is the right thread for this. I am also not sure if AOC should need a lame excuse for talking to people who want to see her dead, but as far as lame excuses go this seems pretty lame. "Factchecking?"

Not sure why she needs an excuse to talk to a fellow member of Congress, that is part of the ordinary way the House operates.

Yeah I'd think the same but the ultra-lame excuse raised my suspicion that she was up to some trickery she wanted to keep hush-hush.

I'm not AOC fan but highlighting this is risible.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on January 04, 2023, 09:11:35 AM
Surely if any Dem is going to support the Trumpies she's got to be amongst the top 5 least likely candidates?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 04, 2023, 09:35:41 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 04, 2023, 09:00:12 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 08:58:58 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 04, 2023, 08:52:45 AMI am not sure if this is the right thread for this. I am also not sure if AOC should need a lame excuse for talking to people who want to see her dead, but as far as lame excuses go this seems pretty lame. "Factchecking?"

Not sure why she needs an excuse to talk to a fellow member of Congress, that is part of the ordinary way the House operates.

Yeah I'd think the same but the ultra-lame excuse raised my suspicion that she was up to some trickery she wanted to keep hush-hush.

Pretty obvious she is egging them on to keep screwing up the GOP caucus.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on January 04, 2023, 09:37:20 AM
Egging them on what? TV?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 04, 2023, 09:42:48 AM
Encouraging them to keep fighting the McCarthy vote by telling them that Democrats won't cross over and undermine their little rebellion.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on January 04, 2023, 09:43:32 AM
Grown-ups are boring. :(
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 04, 2023, 09:47:38 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 04, 2023, 09:43:32 AMGrown-ups are boring. :(

Halloween themed puns are so 3 months ago.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 10:22:38 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 08:57:00 AMWhat I see emerging is a Fidesz like GOP, that actually does care about passing legislation, but is still fairly antidemocratic. If you look at some of the things Josh Hawley and the people around him have been pushing, it is very much a move towards a "socially conservative, economically liberal" party. It will be ironic when/if this occurs (and I think that is the direction it is going), because much of our current trouble can be traced to the astroturfing by libertarian billionaires who helped build the early Tea Party. But I can't think of anything more on life support in the GOP than libertarian principles. It used to be you could just argue the GOP often gave their views short shrift, but a significant number of modern Republicans are actively antithetical to libertarian principles.

One thing that Trump did in 2016 was destroy the consensus around free trade and neo-liberal policies in the Democratic Party. Clearly the idea that you take on these policies to gain moderate voters to win elections for the Democrats was discredited by Trump being able to outflank them to the left with populist notions. Hawley certainly represents this kind of populist left wing economics combined with right wing social ideas (to the point where he teamed up with Bernie Sanders to get direct stimulus checks sent out in 2020). Certainly this has sent centrist Joe Biden and the rest of the Democratic establishment leftwards since 2016. But are the Republicans really coalescing around Hawley? And I have noticed that since the Democrats have regained power Hawley hasn't seemed to be in favor of populist ideas when there isn't a Republican President. But it isn't like I have my finger on the pulse of him and his supporters or know what Republicans are talking about for the most part.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 10:24:13 AM
I perceive the GOP to be moving more right-populist, anti-free trade, pro-economic interventionist yes. It's still a big coalition party with a lot of moving pieces, but I see poor prognosis for the Koch Brothers / Libertarian wing--the issue is they have nothing to offer to the new base, who are predominantly blue collar guys who like the idea of shutting down trade with China and Mexico, ideas that the libertarians abhor.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 10:28:50 AM
Trump decisively killed free-trade for a long time. The fact that union voters and workers were lining up behind him for trade wars spooked the Democrats big time.

So it amazed me how Libertarian types were singing his praises despite the fact he represented a decisive blow against their few mainstream policies.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 10:34:44 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 10:24:13 AMI perceive the GOP to be moving more right-populist, anti-free trade, pro-economic interventionist yes. It's still a big coalition party with a lot of moving pieces, but I see poor prognosis for the Koch Brothers / Libertarian wing--the issue is they have nothing to offer to the new base, who are predominantly blue collar guys who like the idea of shutting down trade with China and Mexico, ideas that the libertarians abhor.
Maybe. I think in terms of policies the GOP have not delivered much in the way of interventionism, while they have delivered tax cuts and judges who want to gut the regulatory state. I think libertarians will absolutely bank that gain.

I think Trump is important as marking a new bipartisan consensus that emerges after 2016 that the US is in real competition with China. So free trade gets entangled into national security, plus emerging industrial interests in the US. I'm not sure how I'd describe Trump's role but I think 2016 is an important shift - I also think that new consensus is correct. Some purist libertarians may get very upset about that - but many of the multi-billionaire rich wing of the GOP will just get involved in benefiting from those subsidies and tax breaks.

I think the GOP is moving at the level of style and rhetoric. I've not really seen much of a sign that they're actually shifting in terms of policy - with the possible exception of DeSantis and Disney. Possibly becaue that's what I think of DeSantis, I think the shift in policy that I think is more likely is not that the GOP becomes economically more left-wing, but that they go in the direction of using the state's subsidies, tax credits, regulatory power etc in order to force certain cultural values.

QuoteAnd I have noticed that since the Democrats have regained power Hawley hasn't seemed to be in favor of populist ideas when there isn't a Republican President. But it isn't like I have my finger on the pulse of him and his supporters or know what Republicans are talking about for the most part.
He was, with Sanders, one of the Senators who voted against imposing a contract on railway workers.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 10:44:10 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 10:34:44 AMHe was, with Sanders, one of the Senators who voted against imposing a contract on railway workers.

Gotcha but in opposition to Biden  :P

Pro-Union anti-management Republicans. Corporate America's biggest nightmare.

But even so I don't see the other Republicans uniting behind Hawley on this kind of thing.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 11:16:38 AM
Hawley isn't alone, maybe just the most prominent Senator of this ilk. I think Sheilbh brings up a good point about judges--the judges of the Federalist society are definitely in the libertarian wing of the party; but interestingly there is a new legal philosophy some of the Hawley-type conservatives are promoting called "common good constitutionalism", which basically says instead of looking at original intent you look at what is "good for America", it's really squishy and mostly means bad things--like applying a strongly Christian ethical analysis on many decisions, but it is largely against a Lochner court style consensus of government being weakened in its ability to regulate the economy.

And as for not delivering any real key work yet--it takes a big groundswell of support in the party to start setting the agenda. For example the social conservatives didn't just emerge in 2018 and start dominating the judiciary and state governments, that project dates back to the 1980s, and it took decades to build up the framework for it.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on January 04, 2023, 01:14:15 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 10:28:50 AMTrump decisively killed free-trade for a long time. The fact that union voters and workers were lining up behind him for trade wars spooked the Democrats big time.

So it amazed me how Libertarian types were singing his praises despite the fact he represented a decisive blow against their few mainstream policies.
Libertarians, just like evangelicals, are far less principled than they were given credit for.  A lot of them hate the government because it protects the people against non-government coercion that they favor.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 01:17:18 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 04, 2023, 01:14:15 PMLibertarians, just like evangelicals, are far less principled than they were given credit for.  A lot of them hate the government because it protects the people against non-government coercion that they favor.

My impression of modern day libertarians is that their ideology is constructed mostly on a combination of "I'm against any rules applied to me, I should be able to do what I want" and "I'll embrace any philosophical sounding rationale for having zero empathy for others", while still getting indignant about things that are inconvenient or harmful to themselves.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 04, 2023, 01:26:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 01:17:18 PMMy impression of modern day libertarians is that their ideology is constructed mostly on a combination of "I'm against any rules applied to me, I should be able to do what I want" and "I'll embrace any philosophical sounding rationale for having zero empathy for others", while still getting indignant about things that are inconvenient or harmful to themselves.
Good description, fits my view. But that's actually a broad social trend, not just people that subscribe to libertarian movements.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on January 04, 2023, 01:34:09 PM
Yes, you guys have done an excellent job of describing humans.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 01:38:14 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 01:17:18 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 04, 2023, 01:14:15 PMLibertarians, just like evangelicals, are far less principled than they were given credit for.  A lot of them hate the government because it protects the people against non-government coercion that they favor.

My impression of modern day libertarians is that their ideology is constructed mostly on a combination of "I'm against any rules applied to me, I should be able to do what I want" and "I'll embrace any philosophical sounding rationale for having zero empathy for others", while still getting indignant about things that are inconvenient or harmful to themselves.

We call that "Yi doctrine" where you will always oppose government interventions that at all try to restrain private bad actors but get indignant if society in any way uses its own freedom to criticize you.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: crazy canuck on January 04, 2023, 01:51:40 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 04, 2023, 01:34:09 PMYes, you guys have done an excellent job of describing humans.

Humans are all asshole libertarians with a side of non principled evangelical? 

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 01:53:22 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 04, 2023, 01:26:01 PMGood description, fits my view. But that's actually a broad social trend, not just people that subscribe to libertarian movements.

Three trends:

1) Want to ignore rules applied to themselves.
2) Want excuse for having zero empathy to others.
3) Reserve the right to be indignant at personal inconvenience.

I think 3) is probably a universal human constant - with exceptions here and there. As such I doubt it's on the rise.

1) could probably be argued to be pretty universal also, but personally I disagree. I think people - broadly speaking - are pretty good at following rules they buy into. There's of course always tension between people who want to construct rules - and are okay with following them because they think they're fair and reasonable - and people who believe "rules should constrain others and protect me." I could buy an argument that the "rules are tools of power" side of things are growing stronger than the "rules are tools of justice" perspective beyond the general growth of Libertarianism and their fellow travellers, but I'm curious what you see as the evidence.

As for a general widespread trend to look for excuses to show no empathy, again I'm curious where else you're seeing strong evidence of this?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 04, 2023, 02:19:01 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 10:34:44 AMI think Trump is important as marking a new bipartisan consensus that emerges after 2016 that the US is in real competition with China. So free trade gets entangled into national security, plus emerging industrial interests in the US.

There is such a consensus but its existence obscures where the political tea leaves stand on trade qua trade. Outside of the PRC, there doesn't seems to be much movement on trade restriction.  In fact, Trump himself endorsed the continuation of NAFTA - a traditional bete noire of the trade warriors - once the name was changed and some cosmetic amendments added. 
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 02:21:34 PM
Quote from: DGuller on January 04, 2023, 01:14:15 PMLibertarians, just like evangelicals, are far less principled than they were given credit for.  A lot of them hate the government because it protects the people against non-government coercion that they favor.
I think it depends who you mean by libertarians and what their agenda was.

If it's the libertarians who booed Gary Johnson because he thought driving licenses were a good idea, I think they're fairly principled. I think Cato has been more principled than most right think tanks in the US.

As with evangelicals for a lot of GOP-aligned libertarians (especially big donor level people), I think they're probably closer to achieving their goal than ever because of the judges who've been appointed. There is, I expect, going to be a torching of the administrative and regulatory state which is what those people wanted - just like the evangelicals wanted Roe v Wade overturned. It may not be principled but I think it's lining up to deliver their policy agenda.

Although with libertarians in the GOP I think the point you have to query their principles is at least if not far more W Bush's administration than Trump's.

QuoteThere is such a consensus but its existence obscures where the political tea leaves stand on trade qua trade. Outside of the PRC, there doesn't seems to be much movement on trade restriction.  In fact, Trump himself endorsed the continuation of NAFTA - a traditional bete noire of the trade warriors - once the name was changed and some cosmetic amendments added. 
Yeah - I think the bigger shift in terms of trade is the IRA and the expansion of what the US considers core, strategic, national security industries. I think that is directly linked to the consensus on China but equally impacts American partners such as the EU and basically anyone else even if the primary intended target was China.

It's not necessarily trade restriction, it's just massively tilting the playing field (but I think it's the right policy for the world on climate and for the US on nation security so....:hmm:).
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 02:22:17 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 04, 2023, 01:34:09 PMYes, you guys have done an excellent job of describing humans.

Not really. The need for a philosophical-rational reason to have zero empathy for others is not universally human. Many folks embrace empathy, and others aportion out empathy based on other reasons.

"His suffering is not my problem because freedom" is a uniquely (right-)Libertarian position. Left-libertarianism has a lot about social responsibility and mutual aid and so on, but that's not what folks mean in this day and age when they say "libertarian".

Similarly, the desire to have philosophical "rational" reason to avoid rules applying to you is far from universal. Plenty of people are okay with following rules for the common good and social cohesion. Plenty more are pretty okay with ignoring rules, but acknowledge that it is wrong or make relativist excuses ("in this case it's okay to break the rule because of some overriding reason"). The thing that is uniquely (right-)Libertarian IMO is the position that rules themselves (especially inconvenient ones) are immoral because they interfere with "freedom".

"Growing indignant at personal inconvenience" is pretty universal to humans, I'll grant you (and probably to all living things capable of feeling indignant). The reason it is worth noting for (right-)Libertarians is that their commitment to zero empathy and hostility to the idea of rules leaves them only with either "if you have enough money and power to do something about it good for you; otherwise sucks to be you" (the argument if they have the money/ power) and complete incoherence in support of their grievances (if they don't have the money/ power).
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 02:36:08 PM
Can someone explain why McCarthy isn't stepping aside? Is it just that they've not found an alternative candidate who has the votes?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 02:36:30 PM
Ok I thought the Republicans would go home last night and work something out for today. It appears I was wrong and nothing has changed. Except now the Republican vaguely rebellious types are voting for somebody named "Donalds". I have no idea who that is.

So who knows how long this pointless charade will go on?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 02:37:26 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 02:36:08 PMCan someone explain why McCarthy isn't stepping aside? Is it just that they've not found an alternative candidate who has the votes?

No idea. As I said I figured the Republicans would hammer something out overnight but nope.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 04, 2023, 02:42:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 02:37:26 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 02:36:08 PMCan someone explain why McCarthy isn't stepping aside? Is it just that they've not found an alternative candidate who has the votes?

No idea. As I said I figured the Republicans would hammer something out overnight but nope.

As far as I can tell McCarthy has already made so many concessions to the Freedom Caucus types no other candidate is willing to go even further.  Either that or the GOP moderates aren't willing to let the Freedom Caucus call the shots here.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on January 04, 2023, 02:43:35 PM
Are these recalcitrant assholes going to lose all of their committee assignments?  That's what has happened in the past to party members who won't cooperate in this case.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2023, 02:47:23 PM
Does Congress cease functioning while we wait for a Speaker?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 02:48:04 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2023, 02:47:23 PMDoes Congress cease functioning while we wait for a Speaker?

That is my understanding.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 04, 2023, 02:55:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2023, 02:47:23 PMDoes Congress cease functioning while we wait for a Speaker?

Yes.  As I understand it none of the members can even be sworn in without a speaker.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 04, 2023, 02:56:34 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 04, 2023, 02:43:35 PMAre these recalcitrant assholes going to lose all of their committee assignments?  That's what has happened in the past to party members who won't cooperate in this case.

But the thing is McCarthy needs their votes in order to become speaker.  If it was just 1 or 2 recalcitrant assholes he could take that approach.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 04, 2023, 03:02:36 PM
There is nothing in the Constitution that prevents the House from operating before electing a Speaker.  As long as there is a quorum.  The issue is that if a majority can't muster enough votes to elect a Speaker, you probably can't get agreement on the set of procedural rules to follow for that session either, or anything else.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 03:07:43 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 02:21:34 PMAs with evangelicals for a lot of GOP-aligned libertarians (especially big donor level people), I think they're probably closer to achieving their goal than ever because of the judges who've been appointed. There is, I expect, going to be a torching of the administrative and regulatory state which is what those people wanted - just like the evangelicals wanted Roe v Wade overturned. It may not be principled but I think it's lining up to deliver their policy agenda.

But that isn't actually a political movement of voters, this is basically a very small number of wealthy capitalists--and their goals are now in direct contradiction with the sort of activist use of government power you're seeing from the likes of DeSantis--who want to be able to punish corporations for doing things they don't like. There is no chance that the anti-regulatory state people want to see Republicans able to interfere in their business decisions, but that is precisely what some Republicans are pushing towards. Whether they succeed is hard to say, but they are certainly pushing. Note that no less than entities like Blackrock are facing specific, targeted legislation in a dozen or so red states to "punish them" for offering investment products that disagree with Republican politics. Again, that's as far from libertarianism as it gets.

And the Cato types and their legal project won't protect them because the judges they paid for tend to genuinely believe that while the Federal government should barely exist, State governments should barely be constrainable by any power, so they will have little recourse to activist red state activities.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 03:13:28 PM
McCarthy could step aside, yes--but I don't know how well it would solve the problem. Jim Jordan appears to have genuinely been serious that he doesn't want the Speakership--and it is still unclear he would have the support of moderate Republicans (again, with a margin of 5 you need almost unanimous agreement to get to a Republican Speaker.) In normal operations, the leadership elections that occurred within the caucus, when McCarthy won those, the losers would agree to vote for him unanimously come the floor vote. It isn't unusual to have a few defections from wingnuts even then, but usually the time to offer dissent is in those caucus leadership votes. Basic political strategy then says you vote for your guy in the open floor vote because it is a vote that's also open to the other party, and just this exact problem can occur if you don't toe the line. The unusual thing is the losers in the caucus leadership elections before this week have decided to take their vote to the floor.

It also appears some of the moderate Republicans are incensed, and probably not looking at this point to compromise much more on rules. They would probably be willing to compromise on a different Speaker candidate, but not likely one that looks like the sort of people who are holding the party hostage right now. It would likely be someone like Steve Scalise, who in most meaningful ways is the same as McCarthy.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Maladict on January 04, 2023, 03:18:45 PM
Why doesn't Jordan reject his nomination, if he doesn't want it?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 03:21:31 PM
Quote from: Maladict on January 04, 2023, 03:18:45 PMWhy doesn't Jordan reject his nomination, if he doesn't want it?


He did. That is why they are voting for this Byron Donalds guy from Florida instead.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 03:23:24 PM
Quote from: Maladict on January 04, 2023, 03:18:45 PMWhy doesn't Jordan reject his nomination, if he doesn't want it?


He has voted for McCarthy and said he doesn't want it. I'm not sure procedurally he can stop other people from saying his name. He also probably does not want to be too involved in this fight--he's a flamethrower who himself likes the position of being able to attack Democrats and generate news for himself in the conservative press. The job of Speaker actually involves a lot of grueling legislative operations work that Jordan has no experience with and as far as I can tell zero interest in--Jordan has never been involved in a substantive piece of legislation in his entire 16 year career. Being able to run a committee that he can weaponize against Democrats is his jam, not trying to herd cats as a member of the House leadership.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 03:32:19 PM
The Freedom Caucus Chair (Scott Perry) has gone on a long rant now about how "no one" outside of the House wanted recent spending bills, how they were elected because "Washington is broken and they want to fix it."

It's interesting how divorced from reality this is. Most of the recent spending bills were incredibly popular, and Perry's caucus has never shown a single iota of interest in trying to fix anything, his ilk believes the government should largely cease to exist, which is an extreme position out of line with almost the entire country.

But because they represent far right, safely gerrymandered districts, they only have to cater to the extremist fringe that votes in Republican primaries, and then can go into the well of the House and pretend they represent a major majority.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 03:34:23 PM
Perry was also involved in the January 6th coup attempt and went on a rant about how the Republican party is really the party of black people because they supported them during Reconstruction 150 years ago, crazy how deranged these people are.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 04, 2023, 03:37:41 PM
After hearing that speech by Perry I am not even sure why we are having a vote. They don't sound any closer to voting for McCarthy than they were in the previous vote.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 04:55:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 02:36:08 PMCan someone explain why McCarthy isn't stepping aside? Is it just that they've not found an alternative candidate who has the votes?

The GOP got 222 seats, while the Democrats got 212. You need 218 votes to become speaker. McCarthy can get 202-3 votes from the GOP, with 19-20 GOP members voting against him. If McCarthy steps aside, someone else has to get 218 votes from somewhere.

Just because those 19 members of the House of Representatives won't vote for McCarthy doesn't mean they can get another 199 votes for whomever they prefer. Apparently Jim Jordan (of sexual abuse of student athletes fame) was put forward as an acceptable candidate, but Jordan supports McCarthy.

But yes, it's "just" that they haven't found an alternate candidate. It'll be a bit of a challenge for "them" (whoever they are) to find a suitable candidate.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 04, 2023, 05:04:51 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 03:32:19 PMThe Freedom Caucus Chair (Scott Perry) has gone on a long rant now about how "no one" outside of the House wanted recent spending bills, how they were elected because "Washington is broken and they want to fix it."

It's interesting how divorced from reality this is. Most of the recent spending bills were incredibly popular, and Perry's caucus has never shown a single iota of interest in trying to fix anything, his ilk believes the government should largely cease to exist, which is an extreme position out of line with almost the entire country.

But because they represent far right, safely gerrymandered districts, they only have to cater to the extremist fringe that votes in Republican primaries, and then can go into the well of the House and pretend they represent a major majority.
When you elect clowns, you get a circus...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 04, 2023, 05:14:11 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 04:55:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 02:36:08 PMCan someone explain why McCarthy isn't stepping aside? Is it just that they've not found an alternative candidate who has the votes?

The GOP got 222 seats, while the Democrats got 212. You need 218 votes to become speaker. McCarthy can get 202-3 votes from the GOP, with 19-20 GOP members voting against him. If McCarthy steps aside, someone else has to get 218 votes from somewhere.

Just because those 19 members of the House of Representatives won't vote for McCarthy doesn't mean they can get another 199 votes for whomever they prefer. Apparently Jim Jordan (of sexual abuse of student athletes fame) was put forward as an acceptable candidate, but Jordan supports McCarthy.

But yes, it's "just" that they haven't found an alternate candidate. It'll be a bit of a challenge for "them" (whoever they are) to find a suitable candidate.

Something similar happened in 2015.  The same Mike McCarthy was the nominee for speaker, but the Freedom Caucus refused to support him.  Eventually the outgoing speaker, John Boehner, asked Paul Ryan to be the compromise candidate as someone who was acceptable to all sides.  Ryan reluctantly took the position and held it until the 2018 election where he did not run.

But it's unclear that there's any compromise candidate that would be agreeable to all sides.  Ryan had the clout as the former VP, but obviously Pence (even if he were in Congress) is a far more divisive figure within the GOP.  The Freedom Caucus is a lot crazier now as well.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2023, 05:22:56 PM
We're getting a taste of what a third party would look like.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 05:34:02 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 04:55:35 PMBut yes, it's "just" that they haven't found an alternate candidate. It'll be a bit of a challenge for "them" (whoever they are) to find a suitable candidate.
Yeah. It just feels profoundly humiliating if you're McCarthy (although maybe he's inured to that after Trump), to have to go through this vote repeatedly when there seems like a very limited chance you have the votes.

Best case scenario, you become the weakest Speaker in living memory. Worst case scenario, you're just repeatedly humiliated on national TV for a few days.

Not strictly linked to this - but I feel like the Republicans don't really have someone who can count votes at this point or they're just not able to even talk to each other.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 04, 2023, 05:42:14 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 05:34:02 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 04:55:35 PMBut yes, it's "just" that they haven't found an alternate candidate. It'll be a bit of a challenge for "them" (whoever they are) to find a suitable candidate.
Yeah. It just feels profoundly humiliating if you're McCarthy (although maybe he's inured to that after Trump), to have to go through this vote repeatedly when there seems like a very limited chance you have the votes.

Best case scenario, you become the weakest Speaker in living memory. Worst case scenario, you're just repeatedly humiliated on national TV for a few days.

Not strictly linked to this - but I feel like the Republicans don't really have someone who can count votes at this point or they're just not able to even talk to each other.

I seriously do not understand the strategy of holding repeated votes you know you are going to lose.

Apparently several of McCarthy's opponents will vote for him in return for prime committee appointments.  Matt Gaetz for example wants to chair the Armed Services Committee.

That almost certainly won't work though as those assignments have almost certainly been promised to others...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 05:58:48 PM
It makes no sense. I get there's divides which make it difficult to work out a position but are there no smoke filled rooms left to do this in private, not on the floor?! :blink:

Also lots can happen but after an election cycle when the Trumpiest bits of the GOP lost, this feels like it'll get the attention of voters in a not great way for the GOP.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 04, 2023, 06:00:41 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 04, 2023, 05:58:48 PMIt makes no sense. I get there's divides which make it difficult to work out a position but are there no smoke filled rooms left to do this in private, not on the floor?! :blink:

Also lots can happen but after an election cycle when the Trumpiest bits of the GOP lost, this feels like it'll get the attention of voters in a not great way for the GOP.

It will.

But it'll allow Gaetz, Boebert and co to raise a butt-load of donations and keep them on Fox News.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2023, 06:06:46 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 04, 2023, 05:42:14 PMMatt Gaetz for example wants to chair the Armed Services Committee.

Two solid years of hearings on THE DEBACLE AT KABUL.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on January 04, 2023, 06:40:15 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 04, 2023, 05:04:51 PMWhen you elect clowns, you get a circus...

I'm stealing this.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 06:51:13 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2023, 06:06:46 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 04, 2023, 05:42:14 PMMatt Gaetz for example wants to chair the Armed Services Committee.

Two solid years of hearings on THE DEBACLE AT KABUL.

That and "we must stop feminization and woke madness from making our armed forces weak and disgusting!"
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2023, 06:55:17 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 04, 2023, 06:51:13 PMThat and "we must stop feminization and woke madness from making our armed forces weak and disgusting!"

Yeah, I sometimes forget that's a thing.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 07:23:43 PM
Yeah, I don't know what they will do as I've said a number of times. If Gaetz and such are angling for high-ranking committee positions--the time to make demands like that was ages ago when this is all traditionally hashed out. As noted, by waiting, those posts have certainly been promised to other Republicans who are already supporting McCarthy. If he reneges on those agreements, he likely loses votes there too, and again--with only a 5-defector threshold that isn't going to work.

As to why can't the Republicans count votes, I think it is as said--they don't know how to talk to each other anymore. Gingrich fired the first salvo in this back when he took over as Republican leader, he started calling members to his office if he found out they were going to lunch with Democrats or socializing with Democrats. This started the process of creating parties that struggle to talk with each other. The Senate still has some of that old collegiality, the House does not. Then the practice started to become normalized of many members, especially on the right, not maintaining homes in Washington, they typically fly on Tuesday mornings and stay until Friday morning and fly out, staying in temporary housing. They don't make connections in the city, by design.

Some of this started to come to a head when firebrands from the Tea Party movement were elected in 2010, but it was tempered both by the large Republican majorities, and the fact at least a decent chunk of Tea Party firebrands were actually experienced politicians of varying backgrounds--so they at least understood how procedural things needed to occur. There are signs some of the new crop came to that realization too--see MTG, but some of that 2010 crop that never learned are still around, and some new ones who have joined them (Gaetz, Boebert), essentially have never for one minute worked in a House that worked under the norms of collegiality. In fact, they have never served in a majority that has--even the ones who got elected in 2010. They normalized the concept of just never agreeing with their own Speaker and forcing him to get Democrats to vote with him to get very regular legislation done.

The problem is that can't work for the Speakership election, and the margin is so small rules change can't bypass them (because it would throw the election to Jeffries.) It's a real pickle basically where about a 12 year process of "total" obstructionists have accumulated enough votes, at a time when the Republican majority is small enough, that they may have paralyzed the Republican caucus.

If this gets resolved, and I'm guessing it will, it may very well involve pretty corrupt backroom shit--i.e. big Republican donors making personal promises to some of the holdouts or something like that. Most of them don't seem to be persuadable by many of the ordinary carrots. Some of them like Perry and Biggs have literally been in Congress for years now refusing to participate in any form of governing at all, it seems highly unlikely they will change for any reason. Some of the "new imbeciles" like Boebert and Gaetz seem pretty corrupt so I wouldn't be shocked if there are ways to buy them. The problem goes back to how small the majority is, even if they get half of these guys squared away you still have 6 more you need to wrangle before you can get to a viable vote.

To show you how some of these people are operating--McCarthy is a major Republican fundraiser (most people in position to vie for Speaker are), his leadership PAC he controls funneled millions of dollars to some of these same people who are now refusing to let him become Speaker and also refusing to even promote a viable alternative, so in thanks for him helping them get elected they are...making their entire party seem incoherent and ungovernable.

I don't really know how you negotiate with them, like I said, I think some of these people move, but the fact there are 20 of them and I know some of the most recalcitrant ones are literally mentally ill-level insane. To give you a rundown on some of the worst:

Paul Gosar - Associated with Holocaust deniers and right wing militia / violence groups like the Oathkeepers / Proud Boys. In 2018 he spoke at a rally in London of the English Defence League, an extremist group in the UK.

Bob Good - Has appeared in Virginia with local militia groups, has expressed views at times suggesting he believes Christian theology should trump civil / constitutional law, he once voted against legislation designed to reduce domestic violence on the premise that "instead people should follow God's laws."

Lauren Boebert - Has embraced the QAnon conspiracy theory, has expressed the belief the separation of Church and State should be ended, and has said she does not believe non-Christians should be allowed to hold elected office, she once accosted a group of Orthodox Jews touring the U.S. Capitol asking them if they were on a "reconnaissance mission" which confused both them and most political observers.

Mary Miller - Has expressed support for Christian nationalism and supremacy of religious rules over civil laws, two days into her first House term in 2021, she quoted Adolf Hitler at a rally of "Moms for America."

These are some of the most crazy. Of the 20--12 maintain to this day Trump actually won the 2020 election, 19 formally objected to the vote certification, they are also the core of a small group of Republicans that have voted against the following things:

- Admission of Finland / Sweden to NATO
- Awarding Capitol Police Officers who were injured on January 6th the Congressional Gold Medal
- A Congressional denunciation of the Myanmar military coup

These bills all had as few as 12-21 Republican objectors so it's the true fringe here. They also were part of somewhat larger but still small groupings of House Republicans to vote against more expected things like Defense Authorization bills, Ukraine funding and etc.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 07:44:51 PM
Gaming out a 'sequence of possible outcomes', I think it may look something like this:

1. McCarthy by hook or crook finds a way in. If this happens it likely involves dealmaking to get the current 20 objectors down to a relatively small number. There is strength in numbers, as the objectors shrink, a nastier amount of lensing can be applied to a few of the final holdouts. Maybe Trump even steps in to denounce them--all of these candidates are extremely loyal to Trump and based their entire 2022 campaigns on fealty to Trump as an organizing principle. It is possible in such a scenario Kevin gets to a low enough defector number he gets in.

2. They will reach a point of "exhaustion" with Option 1 and the caucus is going to move on. I think the immediate next choice would be Steve Scalise, he is the 2nd in leadership and is a little more conservative (but not much) than McCarthy. I also think at least some of the opposition to McCarthy is as simple as these objectors are recalcitrant hostage takers, who dislike anyone "in charge", since McCarthy was in charge they have personal ire towards him--possibly reduced for Steve Scalise who was only number two. Undermining this a bit is at least some of the 20 have made comments saying they wouldn't support Scalise either, as he has been associated with some things they dislike (i.e. facilitating basic operation of the U.S. Government.) Scalise likely picks up some of the 20 right away though, and may have a better chance of whittling down the opposition.

It is possible Scalise isn't interested, in which case this role is filled by another conservative but mainstream part of the caucus, Elise Stefanik of New York being a top option and then a few other lesser knowns.

3. If #2 is exhausted I think things start to get really convoluted and crazy. Potentially deals will be bandied about with the Democrats. Possibly the threat of such deals encourages enough of the 20 to break and vote for a Republican who can get a majority vote.

McCarthy has said just recently he doesn't want another vote tonight, and he thinks talks are "progressing", how true that is, or how fruitful that may be, we can only guess.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on January 04, 2023, 08:57:25 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 07:44:51 PMMcCarthy has said just recently he doesn't want another vote tonight, and he thinks talks are "progressing", how true that is, or how fruitful that may be, we can only guess.
7 votes now, still undecided.

Biden is either laughing at the GOP's stupidity in his office or pulling his hair because nothing gets done.  Can't decide how this will reflect on the GOP for their long term electoral prospect.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2023, 09:22:12 PM
He's not going to pull his hair.  He paid good money for it.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on January 04, 2023, 11:40:51 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2023, 09:22:12 PMHe's not going to pull his hair.  He paid good money for it.
Well, AOC seems to be laughing at it at least.

Edit:
(https://external-preview.redd.it/b5cQLud9m8t7soXunY-6evrHGfNJlEYNwUOQvR8JeXo.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=8afce608e43dec90bfa3caa69ede50ff1c4a2d02)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 05, 2023, 12:13:25 AM
Scalise and any of these Republicans: https://archive.is/iMwCb are unacceptable. The Democrats should staunchly oppose all of them.

Now a Republican who didn't vote to overturn the 2020 election maybe something can be done. But McCarthy and Scalise and the rest of them are dangerous insurrectionaries who should never be trusted.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on January 05, 2023, 12:35:27 AM
Is there a chance that moderate Republicans (if they still exist: P ) just go independent or switch over to the Democrats, enabling the possibility of a D speaker?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on January 05, 2023, 12:39:15 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 05, 2023, 12:35:27 AMIs there a chance that moderate Republicans (if they still exist: P ) just go independent or switch over to the Democrats, enabling the possibility of a D speaker?
The dreamer must awaken.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 05, 2023, 12:55:50 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 05, 2023, 12:35:27 AMIs there a chance that moderate Republicans (if they still exist: P ) just go independent or switch over to the Democrats, enabling the possibility of a D speaker?

Zero chance. It would end all of their political careers.

Well I don't know. Maybe there is one or two who might conceivably change parties and the Democrats in their district would be happy to vote for them and the district is purple enough for them to win elections...but that is a special unicorn in today's gerrymandered districts and not enough to flip the House.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HVC on January 05, 2023, 12:57:31 AM
Any really old republican that can retire on a laugh?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on January 05, 2023, 04:18:56 AM
Quote from: viper37 on January 04, 2023, 08:57:25 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 04, 2023, 07:44:51 PMMcCarthy has said just recently he doesn't want another vote tonight, and he thinks talks are "progressing", how true that is, or how fruitful that may be, we can only guess.
7 votes now, still undecided.

Biden is either laughing at the GOP's stupidity in his office or pulling his hair because nothing gets done.  Can't decide how this will reflect on the GOP for their long term electoral prospect.

Surely the Democrats will get the blame?
Cultists have a habit of not being at fault.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2023, 04:22:37 AM
Quote from: Josquius on January 05, 2023, 04:18:56 AMSurely the Democrats will get the blame?
Cultists have a habit of not being at fault.

Disagree.  This can't be spun.  The disfunctionality of the Republican Party is playing out in real time.  Republican voters have to pick a side in the fight.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 05, 2023, 05:20:15 AM
Quote from: Barrister on January 04, 2023, 06:00:41 PMIt will.

But it'll allow Gaetz, Boebert and co to raise a butt-load of donations and keep them on Fox News.
Yes. On the other hand I think the GOP will only change if they're made to feel a political cost.

I think the mid-terms were definitely part of that and this probably is too.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Solmyr on January 05, 2023, 05:31:21 AM
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/556909914858061835/1060463184454094848/2B6cSmr.jpg)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on January 05, 2023, 06:08:01 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 05, 2023, 04:22:37 AM
Quote from: Josquius on January 05, 2023, 04:18:56 AMSurely the Democrats will get the blame?
Cultists have a habit of not being at fault.

Disagree.  This can't be spun.  The disfunctionality of the Republican Party is playing out in real time.  Republican voters have to pick a side in the fight.
I've seen people spinning it as a "healthy discussion".  That will hold for a while, but if this takes weeks.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on January 05, 2023, 10:44:45 AM
Is there much exposure of the content of the healthy discussion? I.e. are the holdouts open about what they're holding out for or the point they're making, or is it just a "no I won't vote for that guy because I don't like him"?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on January 05, 2023, 10:46:32 AM
Forget it, Jake.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 05, 2023, 10:53:26 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 05, 2023, 10:44:45 AMIs there much exposure of the content of the healthy discussion? I.e. are the holdouts open about what they're holding out for or the point they're making, or is it just a "no I won't vote for that guy because I don't like him"?

It is very vague.

To the best of my knowledge McCarthy has caved on every single point (to the point that I don't even really know the point of him being speaker as he would be totally under the control of the most irresponsible member) but somehow that still isn't enough. But a large part of this is building celebrity brands and getting on TV and being seen as the most fabulously disruptive Republican. This behavior is going to be rewarded by the right wing media. These holdouts are going to be big national stars among the fascist sympathizers. So it is not really about opposing McCarthy specifically but showing you are against the corrupt establishment.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on January 05, 2023, 10:57:57 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 05, 2023, 10:53:26 AMIt is very vague.

To the best of my knowledge McCarthy has caved on every single point (to the point that I don't even really know the point of him being speaker as he would be totally under the control of the most irresponsible member) but somehow that still isn't enough. But a large part of this is building celebrity brands and getting on TV and being seen as the most fabulously disruptive Republican. This behavior is going to be rewarded by the right wing media. These holdouts are going to be big national stars among the fascist sympathizers. So it is not really about opposing McCarthy specifically but showing you are against the corrupt establishment.

Yep.  It is pure 100% virtue signaling.  These are the most virulent "drain the swamp" groupies, and the swamp isn't drained until the government is bankrupt and election outcomes are no longer in the hands of the voters.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Oexmelin on January 05, 2023, 11:04:25 AM
Quote from: The Brain on January 05, 2023, 10:46:32 AMForget it, Jake.

It's Washingtown.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 05, 2023, 11:21:20 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 05, 2023, 10:44:45 AMIs there much exposure of the content of the healthy discussion? I.e. are the holdouts open about what they're holding out for or the point they're making, or is it just a "no I won't vote for that guy because I don't like him"?

Each of the 19 have different reasons.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/05/mccarthy-bid-00076520

Sounds like there was movement last night (mainly concessions by McCarthy), but 5 very hard no votes, and McCarthy only has room for 4 nos.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 05, 2023, 11:27:26 AM
Quote from: Jacob on January 05, 2023, 10:44:45 AMIs there much exposure of the content of the healthy discussion? I.e. are the holdouts open about what they're holding out for or the point they're making, or is it just a "no I won't vote for that guy because I don't like him"?
From Bloomberg's Congressional reporter with a, I assume, serious Tweet :blink:
QuoteBilly House
@HouseInSession
Letting some anti-McCarthy Republicans just vote "Hell No!" is one of the pitches under way, a dressed-up way of voting "present," and thus lowering the threshold of pro-McCarthy votes need to reach a simply majority.

QuoteTo the best of my knowledge McCarthy has caved on every single point (to the point that I don't even really know the point of him being speaker as he would be totally under the control of the most irresponsible member) but somehow that still isn't enough.
Practically speaking, given how narrow the House is isn't that inevitable anyway?

Surely the alternatives are that you either have someone who is incredible at party management and can unify the GOP Reps or you have someone who is very good at picking off rogue Democrats or building bipartisan coalitions. From what I've read of McCarthy - that's not his skillset (I'm not entirely sure what is). So you're at the mercy of any taxi-ful GOP reps who agree to vote together.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 05, 2023, 11:31:17 AM
Well before it would have taken 9 or 10 I think. McCarthy has conceded it would take just one.

Quote from: Sheilbh on January 05, 2023, 11:27:26 AMFrom what I've read of McCarthy - that's not his skillset (I'm not entirely sure what is).

His skillset is kissing up to Trump.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on January 05, 2023, 01:05:04 PM
Matt Gaetz just voted for Trump as new speaker, one day ahead of the January the 6th 2nd anniversary.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 05, 2023, 02:04:49 PM
Doesn't McCarthy have any dignity? How can you continue into the eighth round without any movement? 
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 05, 2023, 02:07:03 PM
Well McCarthy has literally been on his knees servicing every bad element of the GOP for about 7 years in dream of being the Speaker, so I assume he feels no compunction to save face. If he ends up walking away from this without the Speakership his political career is over--there's a non-zero chance he just resigns his House seat too.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 05, 2023, 02:08:53 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 05, 2023, 02:04:49 PMDoesn't McCarthy have any dignity? How can you continue into the eighth round without any movement? 

He really, really wants to be Speaker.  He wants the prestige, the bust, the gavel.

He already came close but lost out in 2015.  If not know he'll never get another chance.



I saw a post along the lines of "well European countries often go months after an election before a government is formed".  But it's already been 2 months since the election, and the GOP has an absolute majority in congress.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 05, 2023, 02:09:33 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 05, 2023, 02:04:49 PMDoesn't McCarthy have any dignity? How can you continue into the eighth round without any movement? 
I assume he washed that away when he decided to stay as a leading Republican during Trump's presidency.

Edit: But I agree - on a purely human level I don't understand putting up with this humiliation.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 05, 2023, 03:03:45 PM
If you ally yourself with Trump you have to be ready for humiliation. It just comes with the territory.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 05, 2023, 03:10:11 PM
What's been interesting is how irrelevant Trump has been to the whole proceedings.

I mean sure - he's endorsed McCarthy, several times, but some of the biggest Jan 6 election deniers are in the "no" camp and they don't seem to be facing any heat for defying Trump.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 05, 2023, 03:31:56 PM
Seen elsewhere:
If I had a nickle every time McCarthy lost the vote to become Speaker, I'd have 35 cents. Which isn't a lot, but the fact that it's happened seven times is hilarious.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 05, 2023, 03:32:14 PM
Quote from: Zanza on January 05, 2023, 02:04:49 PMDoesn't McCarthy have any dignity? How can you continue into the eighth round without any movement? 

Answers:
1. No.
2. He thinks he is playing a game of chicken and can get the other side to swerve first.  What he doesn't seem to get is that other side has already gone over the cliff cheering and pumping their fists.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 05, 2023, 04:03:28 PM
The twenty freedom caucus members seem to be principled within their own crazy world. They probably do not even perceive the situation as embarrassing and damaging for the party, but rather see themselves as resistance heros fighting the establishment. How would they ever vote for McCarthy?  That goes against their deepest political convictions.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 05, 2023, 04:04:59 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 05, 2023, 03:31:56 PMSeen elsewhere:
If I had a nickle every time McCarthy lost the vote to become Speaker, I'd have 35 cents. Which isn't a lot, but the fact that it's happened seven times is hilarious.

Correction: 45 cents, going on 50.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on January 05, 2023, 04:11:02 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlvEot8X0Awxv4A?format=jpg&name=medium)

 :lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: PDH on January 05, 2023, 05:18:08 PM
Jesus, McCarthy has a worse record than Wyoming football...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on January 05, 2023, 05:25:29 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 05, 2023, 02:08:53 PMI saw a post along the lines of "well European countries often go months after an election before a government is formed".  But it's already been 2 months since the election, and the GOP has an absolute majority in congress.

Also this is the speakership, not the head of government. Even in hung parliaments this is more or less automatic in most places.

(Actually our system would have elected Jeffries since it just goes to top vote-getter, regardless of quorum)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 05, 2023, 05:33:25 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 05, 2023, 05:25:29 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 05, 2023, 02:08:53 PMI saw a post along the lines of "well European countries often go months after an election before a government is formed".  But it's already been 2 months since the election, and the GOP has an absolute majority in congress.

Also this is the speakership, not the head of government. Even in hung parliaments this is more or less automatic in most places.

(Actually our system would have elected Jeffries since it just goes to top vote-getter, regardless of quorum)

That's kind of a whole different discussion, but yeah in a Parliamentary system the Speaker is nominally an apolitical position.  It goes to a partisan politician, but they don't vote unless to break a tie.  The equivalent to the "majority leader" is the important position.

But then again in a Parliamentary system you would whip this vote and call another election if you don't have majority support all while kicking out the recalcitrant members from running again.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on January 05, 2023, 05:36:06 PM
Looks like he's losing the tenth vote...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on January 05, 2023, 06:27:37 PM
Saw they said this is now most protracted bid since 1859. Bringing us back to the antebellum period.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 05, 2023, 06:39:32 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 05, 2023, 05:33:25 PMThat's kind of a whole different discussion, but yeah in a Parliamentary system the Speaker is nominally an apolitical position.  It goes to a partisan politician, but they don't vote unless to break a tie.  The equivalent to the "majority leader" is the important position.

But then again in a Parliamentary system you would whip this vote and call another election if you don't have majority support all while kicking out the recalcitrant members from running again.
Yeah very different system - although here electing a speaker is done by secret ballots until someone has 50%+1, so whipping doesn't really work because you can't actually know how anyone's voting.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on January 05, 2023, 07:19:47 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 05, 2023, 05:36:06 PMLooks like he's losing the tenth vote...

(https://media.tenor.com/hMjB6FV2oF4AAAAd/the-simpsons-stop.gif)


So, what. Merca just doesn't have a government now?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 05, 2023, 08:27:14 PM
Uh, no--our President is still in office and can do quite a bit.

Without the House we can pass no legislation of any kind, however. It will become a serious problem if it goes long enough, we start hitting must-pass budgetary etc bills.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on January 05, 2023, 08:39:59 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 05, 2023, 08:27:14 PMUh, no--our President is still in office and can do quite a bit.

Without the House we can pass no legislation of any kind, however. It will become a serious problem if it goes long enough, we start hitting must-pass budgetary etc bills.

So let's say they fail to elect someone as Speaker and we get to a must-pass budgetary bill... could the Democrats theoretically support McCarthy, but with some sort of provision where they can shank him at will after the must-pass has been passed? Some sort of "one person can challenge the speaker" type thing, like what the GOP "rebels" have demanded?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 05, 2023, 09:32:13 PM
Sure, anything is possible. I doubt the Speaker elections go that long, for what it's worth. You can also use a majority vote to change the House rule requiring a Speaker election be completed before any other business--and half ass someway to run legislation through. The issue is without the House's officers selected the mechanics of wrangling legislation would be really hard.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on January 05, 2023, 09:56:52 PM
So are we just waiting for McCarthy to withdraw now?  Is that the only realistic option?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 05, 2023, 10:06:06 PM
So Amash is there wanting to run things like a state lege and allow the Democrats to amend and propose legislation.

Hell they should vote for him. Surely they could find 6 Republicans crazy enough to go along with it.

I am kidding...mostly.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 05, 2023, 10:33:13 PM
The scuttlebutt is McCarthy was closing in on a deal that would reduce the number of objectors down to less than 10...which still is not low enough. We also are not sure of the reality of this deal or if it's just wishful thinking by his camp. I believe the hope is if they were able to halve the objectors, you can then lean on a few specific ones to try and work out personal arrangements...somehow get down to only 4 objectors, maybe get some of them to agree to vote "Present" instead of for a different person etc.

It's unclear if there is ultimately going to be enough movement for McCarthy to get in, but I think we'll have at least a few more days of McCarthy trying before we see any major movement to a different candidate by the caucus.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on January 05, 2023, 11:28:59 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 05, 2023, 10:33:13 PMThe scuttlebutt is McCarthy was closing in on a deal that would reduce the number of objectors down to less than 10...which still is not low enough. We also are not sure of the reality of this deal or if it's just wishful thinking by his camp. I believe the hope is if they were able to halve the objectors, you can then lean on a few specific ones to try and work out personal arrangements...somehow get down to only 4 objectors, maybe get some of them to agree to vote "Present" instead of for a different person etc.

It's unclear if there is ultimately going to be enough movement for McCarthy to get in, but I think we'll have at least a few more days of McCarthy trying before we see any major movement to a different candidate by the caucus.
Can the Republicans hold the vote to eject the protestors from their party if it keeps going?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Habbaku on January 05, 2023, 11:36:46 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 05, 2023, 11:28:59 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 05, 2023, 10:33:13 PMThe scuttlebutt is McCarthy was closing in on a deal that would reduce the number of objectors down to less than 10...which still is not low enough. We also are not sure of the reality of this deal or if it's just wishful thinking by his camp. I believe the hope is if they were able to halve the objectors, you can then lean on a few specific ones to try and work out personal arrangements...somehow get down to only 4 objectors, maybe get some of them to agree to vote "Present" instead of for a different person etc.

It's unclear if there is ultimately going to be enough movement for McCarthy to get in, but I think we'll have at least a few more days of McCarthy trying before we see any major movement to a different candidate by the caucus.
Can the Republicans hold the vote to eject the protestors from their party if it keeps going?


 :huh: What would ejecting them from their party solve? They'd still be in Congress.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2023, 04:19:09 AM

 :huh: What would ejecting them from their party solve? They'd still be in Congress.
[/quote]

It would be harder to wrangle for committeee assisgnments.

Might be ineresting to know what Sanders and Systema (??) got for assignments.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on January 06, 2023, 04:32:09 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 05, 2023, 06:39:32 PM
Quote from: Barrister on January 05, 2023, 05:33:25 PMThat's kind of a whole different discussion, but yeah in a Parliamentary system the Speaker is nominally an apolitical position.  It goes to a partisan politician, but they don't vote unless to break a tie.  The equivalent to the "majority leader" is the important position.

But then again in a Parliamentary system you would whip this vote and call another election if you don't have majority support all while kicking out the recalcitrant members from running again.
Yeah very different system - although here electing a speaker is done by secret ballots until someone has 50%+1, so whipping doesn't really work because you can't actually know how anyone's voting.

Here is done by secret ballot too, but you just need to get the most votes, not a majority of parliament. Then the next four vote-getters get elected as deputy speakers.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 06, 2023, 05:32:20 AM
The GOP needs to ask itself what the point of having people that see government dysfunction as a feature, not a bug as representatives is. They might have the (R) behind their name, but they do not actually further the goals of the larger Republican party. Maybe next time they should send sane people in primaries against these clowns and not let them run on the Republican ticket.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2023, 05:39:04 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 06, 2023, 05:32:20 AMThe GOP needs to ask itself what the point of having people that see government dysfunction as a feature, not a bug as representatives is. They might have the (R) behind their name, but they do not actually further the goals of the larger Republican party. Maybe next time they should send sane people in primaries against these clowns and not let them run on the Republican ticket.

That's the line I've been pushing.  Republican voters have been confronted with a stark choice.  This is a net positive for this country.  This is part of the process of dispelling the demon of Trumpism.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on January 06, 2023, 05:40:45 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2023, 05:39:04 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 06, 2023, 05:32:20 AMThe GOP needs to ask itself what the point of having people that see government dysfunction as a feature, not a bug as representatives is. They might have the (R) behind their name, but they do not actually further the goals of the larger Republican party. Maybe next time they should send sane people in primaries against these clowns and not let them run on the Republican ticket.

That's the line I've been pushing.  Republican voters have been confronted with a stark choice.  This is a net positive for this country.  This is part of the process of dispelling the demon of Trumpism.

That assumes that voters will remember by the time the next election comes around.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 06, 2023, 05:43:35 AM
Quote from: Syt on January 06, 2023, 05:40:45 AMThat assumes that voters will remember by the time the next election comes around.

I say the trend line is gradual but positive.  A couple months ago 60% of Republican voters said they thought the election was stolen.  Now they're a 20 member rump of Congress.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 06, 2023, 06:43:51 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/9l1V6Z5.jpg)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: mongers on January 06, 2023, 09:05:26 AM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 06, 2023, 06:43:51 AM(https://i.imgur.com/9l1V6Z5.jpg)

:heh:

I bet there's some truth to the "take your daughter to Mark Gaetz office day"
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on January 06, 2023, 10:19:42 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on January 05, 2023, 11:36:46 PM
Quote from: viper37 on January 05, 2023, 11:28:59 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 05, 2023, 10:33:13 PMThe scuttlebutt is McCarthy was closing in on a deal that would reduce the number of objectors down to less than 10...which still is not low enough. We also are not sure of the reality of this deal or if it's just wishful thinking by his camp. I believe the hope is if they were able to halve the objectors, you can then lean on a few specific ones to try and work out personal arrangements...somehow get down to only 4 objectors, maybe get some of them to agree to vote "Present" instead of for a different person etc.

It's unclear if there is ultimately going to be enough movement for McCarthy to get in, but I think we'll have at least a few more days of McCarthy trying before we see any major movement to a different candidate by the caucus.
Can the Republicans hold the vote to eject the protestors from their party if it keeps going?


 :huh: What would ejecting them from their party solve? They'd still be in Congress.
Ah, I forgot it's not a simple party vote to elect their representative.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 10:39:01 AM
I think on a meta level there are the smallest bits of evidence of the GOP as a collective realizing the extreme obstructionists really advance no meaningful...anything. They almost to a one are just grandstanders looking to pump Fox News standings. It's interesting how you can distinguish--MTG and Jim Jordan are grandstanding far rightists, but are both largely willing to play within the party system to keep congress working. A party can work with that, it's hard to work with people that literally think their job is to just burn the building down to get attention on a cable news network and social media.

Now what can they do about it? That's hard. One of the things the obstructors are demanding is leadership stop funding primary challengers to people like them, which will make it harder to unseat them. One of the core reasons the GOP declined so tremendously in quality is just the nature of the GOP primary electorate--it is a small subset of the GOP itself, and it is insanely more extremist than the large body of GOP voters. That's not an easy problem to solve, but if it is solveable recognizing that it is creating problematic outcomes is the first step. Some of us realized this was a problem 12-13 years ago when we were still in the GOP and seeing high quality GOP candidates unseated by genuinely crazy / terrible people in primaries, but at the time no one of any importance in the party really seemed concerned about it. I think the concern is now there, now how do they fix it? That's obviously a complex question.

Some of the obstructors are on incredibly shaky grounds--Boebert just barely won her general election for example, and several other obstructors are from districts that could be competitive in some scenarios.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 06, 2023, 11:48:04 AM
Yeah, it's kind of remarkable that MTG has been a "voice of reason" in this whole story.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Maladict on January 06, 2023, 12:53:38 PM
Gaetz seems to be overplaying his hand.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on January 06, 2023, 01:23:26 PM
It's today two years since the Capitol Riot, btw.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 06, 2023, 02:07:13 PM
McCarthy now gaining ground, but still not enough...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 02:17:23 PM
Andy Biggs
Lauren Boebert
Eli Crane
Matt Gaetz
Bob Good
Andy Harris
Matt Rosendale

he needs to flip 3 of these
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 02:29:32 PM
Harris just flipped so he now only needs to flip 2 more.

Boebert and Gaetz have seemed to stake their personal credibility (for whatever little that means) on having "no deal" with Kevin no matter what. Bob Good from repeated reporting has apparently an extreme personal hatred of McCarthy. That's 3 of the 6 that are probably immovable.

So it'll be down to: Biggs, Crane, Rosendale 2 of them need to be movable or McCarthy is in trouble. Crane is basically an unknown, he's far right, brand new to Congress and doesn't have much of a profile. Biggs was the ringleader of the opposition, but he has at least "played ball" with leadership in past times, so he might be someone who can be dealt with.

Rosendale seems decently dug in--but promisingly for McCarthy he has published op-eds and such outlying specific things he would like to see McCarthy reform. That's at least something to work with, unlike Gaetz/Boebert who say there is no deal that can be made.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 06, 2023, 02:41:46 PM
6 votes for Jordan. McCarthy can now get no more than 216.

But I think so long as he gets 213 or more the Republicans might be able to get McCarthy in on a plurality.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 02:55:01 PM
I believe the GOP only has 219 members present today, 3 are out for personal matters (one is a surgery, the others have some obligations that I guess trump participating in Congress.) The Democrats only have 211 because they have 1 member out today as well. With 6 defectors voting for Jordan that would put McCarthy at 213 and Jeffries at 211, so it would technically work if they go plurality, but it would require a rules change.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 03:00:56 PM
That being said, a rules change requires a majority vote of Yeas vs Nays, which 214 alone won't get you if the current 6 Jordan voters vote Nay (which I assume they will.)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 06, 2023, 03:01:32 PM
That Democrat member showed up and voted, his arm was in a sling so maybe he got into some kind of accident.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 06, 2023, 03:16:32 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 02:29:32 PMRosendale seems decently dug in--but promisingly for McCarthy he has published op-eds and such outlying specific things he would like to see McCarthy reform. That's at least something to work with, unlike Gaetz/Boebert who say there is no deal that can be made.
Rosendale also seems like someone who likes the attention:
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1611425826050027520?s=20&t=X25N0lbOXh84JqD2SBSG3g
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: garbon on January 06, 2023, 04:10:01 PM
BBC's first let's ask Republicans how they feel was from Arizona and said this sort of debate is healthy to see.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 06:15:55 PM
So it looks like by hook or crook McCarthy will probably limp to the Speakership. Lot of weird talk about what he's had to agree to in order to dislodge opponents--it sounds like he has committed to a discretionary spending cap freezing spending at 2022 levels, and a promise not to push a clean debt ceiling raise this year.

There are some major problems with this--most notably a very large contingent of the Republican caucus (much more than the holdouts) are strongly against both issues--particularly the discretionary spending freeze because there is a big group of Republican caucus members who are gearing up to push for expanded defense spending this year, this agreement would almost certainly require a $75bn cut in defense spending to be viable. The debt ceiling agreement also is likely opposed by a good chunk of Republicans.

Oddly, there is talk that McCarthy and Connolly (one of his senior allies in the House) have pitched the deal as not a big problem to moderate Republicans by saying "we can just bypass it with a discharge petition." It is pretty wild to indicate you're planning to enter into a deal that you don't expect to be enforced, and to be encouraging a discharge petition of your members, which is also relatively unheard of.

I also don't know how it works--so let's say we get to the debt ceiling, McCarthy likely does some sort of negotiating pass with Biden and it goes nowhere. He gives the private nod to the moderate Republicans they can vote on a discharge petition to bring it to the floor, it passes, cool debt ceiling raised. Now what do the obstructors do? They have the right to subject McCarthy to a Speaker vote at any time under their existing agreements, why wouldn't they hold that over his head and say "you need to committee strip any Republican who voted for the discharge petition." Which he won't want to do, since those are more his allies than the obstructors, but if he doesn't, he could lose his Speakership.

I don't really see how these deals are going to be feasible, or McCarthy's management of the House, frankly.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 06:25:02 PM
Just as an example--quick scanning of recent reporting show at least a dozen Republican defense hawks who have said no vote will pass 218 (threshold to win a floor vote) that cuts defense spending. That basically implicitly says any deal McCarthy has agreed to there simply can't pass, at least not without...a weird coalition of Freedom Caucus Republicans with the entire Democratic caucus, which also just won't happen since Joe Biden wants to raise defense spending and the Democrats will vote how he tells them to on that.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on January 06, 2023, 09:18:49 PM
Maybe some of the hostage takers will die, be removed by scandals, be bribed (legally or illegally), have a change of heart, or whatever before push comes to shove. Maybe not (most likely not), but that's a problem for Future McCarthy. Today McCarthy is needs to cross the finish line.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on January 06, 2023, 09:26:58 PM
Well, this guarantees a government shutdown in the future.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 11:07:52 PM
McCarthy is perilously close, but with some drama.

Apparently Gaetz and Boebert agreed to vote present (which they did), along with Rosendale who DID NOT, but instead voted Jordan again. Basically, choosing to embarrass McCarthy on the floor again. This means McCarthy ends up with 216 with 2 presents, so he was 1 vote short of the Speakership on this round, or he would have had the Speakership had Rosendale voted present.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 11:11:19 PM
They tried to get Matt Gaetz to change his vote at the end, and in the brouhaha over his refusal Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama had to be pulled away from him--it looked like he was preparing to hit him lol.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 06, 2023, 11:29:04 PM
Amazing. Never in my life did I think I'd spend Friday night watching CPSAN. It's better than fucking HBO tonight.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 06, 2023, 11:30:48 PM
Gaetz will lose interest once we reach round 18.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 11:35:41 PM
So GOP started a motion to adjourn until Monday, but then midway through the voting, started to vote AGAINST their own motion. They think they've flipped Gaetz's vote and will go for another Speaker vote tonight.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 06, 2023, 11:38:01 PM
If Gaetz is the deciding vote against again, and all other Reps murder him live on CSPAN, would anyone actually get convicted?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 07, 2023, 12:03:20 AM
Looks like they've finally got it.
15th times the charm.
Or, Gaetz is satisfied with 15.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on January 07, 2023, 12:31:47 AM
Well that was fun.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on January 07, 2023, 12:36:00 AM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 07, 2023, 12:03:20 AMLooks like they've finally got it.
15th times the charm.
Or, Gaetz is satisfied with 15.
Wapo seems to say it's a done deal, but I can't read the page.  NY Times reports he ain't elected yet.  CNN says he's on track to be elected but it's unconfirmed.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 07, 2023, 12:38:06 AM
It is done.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 07, 2023, 01:17:28 AM
McCarthy has his gavel. But now the rules package...next week might be another embarrassing shitshow...maybe even more contentious than this week.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 07, 2023, 01:21:31 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 11:11:19 PMThey tried to get Matt Gaetz to change his vote at the end, and in the brouhaha over his refusal Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama had to be pulled away from him--it looked like he was preparing to hit him lol.

Should have let him. Fuck Gaetz. How is he not in prison and how the fuck did he get re-elected? The Republicans are about protecting kids from trans people and drag queens, they should be protecting them from Matt Gaetz.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on January 07, 2023, 06:26:22 AM
Will the GOP be able to pass a budget with this anti-government posse as part of their so-called majority?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on January 07, 2023, 07:45:09 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 07, 2023, 06:26:22 AMWill the GOP be able to pass a budget with this anti-government posse as part of their so-called majority?

Isn't that a feature, rather than a bug? (from the modern GOP's point of view).
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 07, 2023, 08:24:11 AM
Quote from: Zanza on January 07, 2023, 06:26:22 AMWill the GOP be able to pass a budget with this anti-government posse as part of their so-called majority?
I think there's a decent chance McCarthy won't even manage to pass the rules package he promised the HFC and they will rebel and blow up his speakership right then and there.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on January 07, 2023, 08:57:47 AM
Democrat rep Katie Porter during the shenanigans:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fl2LGxxagAEp8Ju.jpg)

:lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 07, 2023, 09:25:00 AM
Yeah, there is definitely "trouble ahead" for McCarthy's Speakership. The thing is, all he has given the objectors is a set of promises--but the rest of the Republican caucus has not necessarily signed off on those promises, in fact some of them have already said they aren't bound by that deal (specifically in reference to military spending, several Republicans on the Armed Services Committee have basically said no legislation will pass the House that lowers defense spending, period.) Others have said they disagree with the proposed rule changes etc. What do the objectors do when McCarthy cannot actually deliver? The thing is they can implode the Republican leadership basically at any time. If the full caucus refuses to pass the rule change that lets a single member put the Speakership up for vote, the objectors likely become extremely recalcitrant and refuse to vote with the caucus on most matters going forward, which would paralyze its ability to act.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 07, 2023, 12:44:01 PM
I get the impression that every single Republican meme idiot is backing Teh Freedom Caucus.

That might be useful for seperating signal and noise.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 07, 2023, 12:51:09 PM
McCarthy is promising to defund the police to protect criminals and corruption. Glad this treasonous fuck is in charge.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on January 07, 2023, 08:44:28 PM
The main thing I learned...or better to say, I hope others have learned...is that McCarthy has to be one of the most blatant political whores we've had as a Speaker.  Probably the most. 
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on January 08, 2023, 01:14:22 AM
Quote from: Valmy on January 07, 2023, 01:21:31 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on January 06, 2023, 11:11:19 PMThey tried to get Matt Gaetz to change his vote at the end, and in the brouhaha over his refusal Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama had to be pulled away from him--it looked like he was preparing to hit him lol.

Should have let him. Fuck Gaetz. How is he not in prison and how the fuck did he get re-elected? The Republicans are about protecting kids from trans people and drag queens, they should be protecting them from Matt Gaetz.
He's not a drag queen... :ph34r:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: viper37 on January 08, 2023, 01:16:22 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 07, 2023, 12:44:01 PMI get the impression that every single Republican meme idiot is backing Teh Freedom Caucus.

That might be useful for seperating signal and noise.
And that the vote is done, what happens if the main Republicans expel those 20 morons?  GOP long civil war or short instability followed by long term growth?

At 20, they lose their majority, but they could expel the 5 worst of the bunch.  They did it with Liz Cheney.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on January 08, 2023, 04:19:57 AM
They didn't expel Liz Chenney.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 08, 2023, 04:30:20 AM
The Wyoming Republican Committee voted symbolically to expel her from the part.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 08, 2023, 10:25:04 AM
In past eras such rebellion as this would be severely punished, stripping of all committee assignments, a guarantee that the GOP campaign arm would support primary challengers in the next election etc. But such a narrow GOP majority makes "revenge" fairly impossible for McCarthy, although I have little doubt he would love to hit back at these people after the last week.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: mongers on January 08, 2023, 11:31:00 AM
Those clowns look like their planning on making the 2023 US congressional year as bad as the UK's 2022 parliamentary year. :bowler:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 09, 2023, 08:24:29 PM
Gonna be a fun two (or more) years.
https://twitter.com/RepGosar/status/1611781401099268096
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 09, 2023, 09:39:03 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 09, 2023, 08:24:29 PMGonna be a fun two (or more) years.
https://twitter.com/RepGosar/status/1611781401099268096


Why the fuck? It has been over two years and I have no idea what fantasy world that dude lives in.

China? Pelosi? Some random General? This is such brand new conspiracy stuff. Do the Republicans even agree what conspiracy they are supposed to be exposing in this investigation?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 09, 2023, 09:53:13 PM
Ah well at least the rules package was passed and it isn't too radically different from shit we have seen in the past.

Looking forward to the endless Hunter Biden and Nancy Pelosi investigations. Or China. Or random generals.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on January 09, 2023, 10:11:09 PM
Hopefully voters remember that even a vote for "moderate" Republicans for House or Senate seats enables and empowers the lunatics.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 09, 2023, 10:26:04 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 09, 2023, 10:11:09 PMHopefully voters remember that even a vote for "moderate" Republicans for House or Senate seats enables and empowers the lunatics.

Except in a primary.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on January 15, 2023, 01:37:36 PM
Next front for the culture wars... to be able to smoke in the workplace again?

QuoteRepublicans Bring Back Smoke-Filled Rooms on Capitol Hill

Members of Congress are permitted to smoke in their offices
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on January 15, 2023, 01:50:32 PM
Seems like the natural extension of the rolling coal culture.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on January 15, 2023, 01:58:56 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 15, 2023, 01:50:32 PMSeems like the natural extension of the rolling coal culture.

How long do you give it until our nutters pick it up?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: mongers on January 15, 2023, 04:18:25 PM
Quote from: The Larch on January 15, 2023, 01:58:56 PM
Quote from: celedhring on January 15, 2023, 01:50:32 PMSeems like the natural extension of the rolling coal culture.

How long do you give it until our nutters pick it up?

20 more twitter posts, 50 at the outside.

So say next Tuesday afternoon.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on January 18, 2023, 07:03:11 PM
George Santos stole 3,000 dollars from a dying dog.  That's pretty low, even for a Republican.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on January 18, 2023, 07:24:36 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 18, 2023, 07:03:11 PMGeorge Santos stole 3,000 dollars from a dying dog.  That's pretty low, even for a Republican.
Don't worry, it just came out that he was a drag performer when he was young in Brazil, so they'll probably kick him out over that. It's not what they should kick him out for, but he'll be out.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HVC on January 18, 2023, 07:35:21 PM
He truly is the most interesting man in politics :D
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on January 18, 2023, 07:41:41 PM
You aren't allowed to be a drag performer in the Republican Party? But what about the freedom caucus?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 18, 2023, 07:42:05 PM
The party of con men, snake handlers, Klansmen, and gun nuts.  With considerable overlap.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 18, 2023, 07:53:58 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 18, 2023, 07:35:21 PMHe truly is the most interesting man in politics :D
It's extraordinary - also that he appears to have worked for several years for a literal ponzi scheme. I can't quite keep track because everything is incredible.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: mongers on January 18, 2023, 08:09:55 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 18, 2023, 07:53:58 PM
Quote from: HVC on January 18, 2023, 07:35:21 PMHe truly is the most interesting man in politics :D
It's extraordinary - also that he appears to have worked for several years for a literal ponzi scheme. I can't quite keep track because everything is incredible.

It's making one of the more interesting wiki pages out there; it's literally a self-writing film script, a sequel to 'Catch Me If You Can' for the social media driven new world we now inhabit.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Oexmelin on January 18, 2023, 09:56:13 PM
Either that, or it's looking increasingly closer to Dr Evil's description of his totally normal upbringing.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 21, 2023, 10:46:53 PM
He's winning me over - just amazing work :lol:
Quotebryan metzger
@metzgov
A clearly exasperated George Santos got hounded by reporters this evening at LaGuardia in NYC.

"I was not a drag queen in Brazil," he says. "I was young and I had fun at a festival. Sue me for having a life!"

"This isn't how you conduct an interview."
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 21, 2023, 11:49:55 PM
It's looking like Santos was involved in personally lying to investors to fund the ponzi scheme--he wasn't the head of the ponzi operation, but the fact he's now a sitting Congressman makes me think DOJ will probably be unwilling to deal lightly with him as their criminal probe into it progresses.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2023, 03:33:07 AM
Even money this turd never does time and doesn't lose his seat.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on January 23, 2023, 12:49:09 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 18, 2023, 07:24:36 PMDon't worry, it just came out that he was a drag performer when he was young in Brazil, so they'll probably kick him out over that. It's not what they should kick him out for, but he'll be out.
Nope, because 'FAKE LIBERAL NEWS".  The GOP has done a great job of convincing their base that every single negative thing they hear about a Republican has to be fake propaganda.

I don't agree with Yi... I can't imagine he'll survive the year in Congress... but he won't be kicked out for performing in drag, because that's not a crime, unlike the other stuff this lunatic has done that will land him behind bars.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on January 23, 2023, 01:02:18 PM
Quote from: Caliga on January 23, 2023, 12:49:09 PMI don't agree with Yi... I can't imagine he'll survive the year in Congress... but he won't be kicked out for performing in drag, because that's not a crime, unlike the other stuff this lunatic has done that will land him behind bars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress

It's highly unlikely Santos is expelled from Congress.  Since the Civil War, only two members have ever been expelled, most recently Jim Trafficant in 2002.

The thing is that in a 5-vote majority the GOP needs his votes.  Now under the rules that the GOP voted in (note: it's really fucking bizarre they have new rules for each congress) you have to physically be present in order to vote, so if Santos is actually convicted and imprisoned within the next 24 months maybe he gets expelled, but for the GOP even if Santos can't vote because he's in prison is better then that seat going to the Dems.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: OttoVonBismarck on January 23, 2023, 02:10:13 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 22, 2023, 03:33:07 AMEven money this turd never does time and doesn't lose his seat.

Would need to know more details about the ponzi scheme. If he's done open/shut financial fraud he's going to prison, DOJ doesn't really lose cases like that. Particularly because he is not a sophisticated operator in that space, i.e. he isn't a Trump or Steven A. Cohen type who built a framework that shields them from personal criminal culpability in their fraudulent activities.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Darth Wagtaros on January 23, 2023, 09:25:04 PM
Santos has the makings of a fine senator.  Don't listen to the MSM's lies.  Leftists are always manufacturing nonesense about patriots like him.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on January 24, 2023, 05:02:30 PM
More to the Santos story:
QuoteRoger Sollenberger
@SollenbergerRC
SCOOP: George Santos just told the FEC that hundreds of thousands of dollars in "personal" campaign loans were not, in fact, from his personal funds. Of course, he didn't say where those funds came from. Me @thedailybeast
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on January 25, 2023, 01:48:44 AM
Say it ain't so.

I guess the ponzi scheme business doesn't pay like it used to.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on January 25, 2023, 09:11:51 AM
It still does, it's just called "crypto" now.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on January 25, 2023, 09:43:24 AM
Quote from: DGuller on January 25, 2023, 09:11:51 AMIt still does, it's just called "crypto" now.

You're the kind of person who right-clicks NFTs. :angry:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on February 01, 2023, 10:52:08 AM
Quote from: Barrister on January 23, 2023, 01:02:18 PMIt's highly unlikely Santos is expelled from Congress.  Since the Civil War, only two members have ever been expelled, most recently Jim Trafficant in 2002.
We'll see.  He's an extraordinarily disturbed individual, and the more that comes out about him, the harder it is to believe he won't be arrested for fraud sooner rather than later.  He seems to have been involved in defrauding investors via some Ponzi scheme he worked for as Otto mentioned.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: PDH on February 01, 2023, 11:54:51 AM
Quote from: Caliga on February 01, 2023, 10:52:08 AMWe'll see.  He's an extraordinarily disturbed individual, and the more that comes out about him, the harder it is to believe he won't be arrested for fraud sooner rather than later.  He seems to have been involved in defrauding investors via some Ponzi scheme he worked for as Otto mentioned.

And how does any of this disqualify him from the New Republican Stance?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on February 01, 2023, 12:02:39 PM
Quote from: Caliga on February 01, 2023, 10:52:08 AM
Quote from: Barrister on January 23, 2023, 01:02:18 PMIt's highly unlikely Santos is expelled from Congress.  Since the Civil War, only two members have ever been expelled, most recently Jim Trafficant in 2002.
We'll see.  He's an extraordinarily disturbed individual, and the more that comes out about him, the harder it is to believe he won't be arrested for fraud sooner rather than later.  He seems to have been involved in defrauding investors via some Ponzi scheme he worked for as Otto mentioned.

I'm going to repeat in full what I said:

Quotehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress

It's highly unlikely Santos is expelled from Congress.  Since the Civil War, only two members have ever been expelled, most recently Jim Trafficant in 2002.

The thing is that in a 5-vote majority the GOP needs his votes.  Now under the rules that the GOP voted in (note: it's really fucking bizarre they have new rules for each congress) you have to physically be present in order to vote, so if Santos is actually convicted and imprisoned within the next 24 months maybe he gets expelled, but for the GOP even if Santos can't vote because he's in prison is better then that seat going to the Dems.

The GOP will distance themselves from Santos (as if he voluntarily agreed to drop his committee assignments), but they need his vote.  Short of Santos actually going to jail (which was what was happening to Trafficant) he's not going to be expelled.  Even if he's arrested they'll keep him.  And I'm not even convinced that Santos going to jail means he gets expelled.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on February 01, 2023, 12:24:50 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 01, 2023, 12:02:39 PMThe GOP will distance themselves from Santos (as if he voluntarily agreed to drop his committee assignments), but they need his vote.  Short of Santos actually going to jail (which was what was happening to Trafficant) he's not going to be expelled.  Even if he's arrested they'll keep him.  And I'm not even convinced that Santos going to jail means he gets expelled.
I think they would if he goes to jail. I mean he won't be able to vote any more and it'll give them a (minor) bit of cover that they did something.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Caliga on February 01, 2023, 12:51:09 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 01, 2023, 12:02:39 PMI'm going to repeat in full what I said:
...and I'm saying that he goes to jail, not that the GOP voluntarily expels him.  Of course they won't do that.

Sorry if it wasn't clear what I was arguing.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on February 01, 2023, 01:06:02 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 01, 2023, 12:24:50 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 01, 2023, 12:02:39 PMThe GOP will distance themselves from Santos (as if he voluntarily agreed to drop his committee assignments), but they need his vote.  Short of Santos actually going to jail (which was what was happening to Trafficant) he's not going to be expelled.  Even if he's arrested they'll keep him.  And I'm not even convinced that Santos going to jail means he gets expelled.
I think they would if he goes to jail. I mean he won't be able to vote any more and it'll give them a (minor) bit of cover that they did something.

If he goes to jail, he can no longer vote, so that's one off their 5 vote margin. (-1 GOP)

If he's kicked out, the Dems would be the odds on favourite to take the seat in a special election.  That would be 2 votes off their margin. (-1 GOP, +1 Dem)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on February 02, 2023, 01:56:21 AM
Lovely gift. :D

(https://preview.redd.it/g0xqud6yeofa1.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=f8b252e1d364d46af29a8490ee747686a7f2f767)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 03, 2023, 05:49:53 PM
Florida again . . .
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 03, 2023, 05:52:31 PM
For the pure joy of piling on, have any great people come from Florida?  Semi serious question.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Oexmelin on February 03, 2023, 09:44:47 PM
Mark Twain  ;)
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on February 03, 2023, 09:55:46 PM
Quote from: Oexmelin on February 03, 2023, 09:44:47 PMMark Twain  ;)

Good one!  :lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: DGuller on February 04, 2023, 12:08:50 AM
What point is being made here?  Florida makes shit grenades?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on February 04, 2023, 03:17:58 AM
Looks like Cory Mills is another of these small dick energy fellows  :hmm:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Minsky Moment on February 04, 2023, 10:54:51 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on February 04, 2023, 03:17:58 AMLooks like Cory Mills is another of these small dick energy fellows  :hmm:


Because he's sending a small stubby and inert shaft?

Probably just coincidence  :ph34r:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Richard Hakluyt on February 04, 2023, 01:06:06 PM
 :lol:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on February 05, 2023, 12:30:22 PM
QuoteHouse passes resolution denouncing socialism, vote splits Democrats

The House on Thursday approved a resolution denouncing socialism in a bipartisan vote that fractured the Democratic caucus.

The resolution overwhelmingly cleared the chamber in a 328-86-14 vote. The majority of Democrats — 109 of them — voted with all Republicans for the resolution, while 86 voted against it and 14 voted "present."

The measure, which runs three pages, says "socialist ideology necessitates a concentration of power that has time and time again collapsed into Communist regimes, totalitarian rule, and brutal dictatorships."

It argues that "many of the greatest crimes in history were committed by socialist ideologues" — mentioning Vladimir Lenin, Joseph Stalin, Mao Zedong, Fidel Castro, Pol Pot, Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un, Daniel Ortega, Hugo Chavez and Nicolás Maduro — and it lists atrocities committed under socialist regimes.

"Congress denounces socialism in all its forms, and opposes the implementation of socialist policies in the United States of America," the resolution reads.

When introducing the measure, the office of Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) — a sponsor of the resolution — said passing it "would make a bold statement that the People's House unequivocally denounces this cruel and unjust ideology."

"It would also ensure the United States commits to never begin or normalize the implementation of socialist policies that inevitably lead to economic ruin and political authoritarianism," Salazar's office added in a statement.

Several Democrats who voted against the resolution expressed concerns regarding the future of Social Security and Medicare. They noted that Republicans on the Rules Committee rejected an amendment proposed by Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) which sought to clarify that opposition to the implementation of socialist policies in the U.S. does not include federal programs like Medicare and Social Security.

Republicans are pushing for spending cuts to be linked to a debt ceiling increase and some have floated cuts to entitlement programs. Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), however, has said cuts to the two federal programs are "off the table."

"Here's what this is really about: More and more members on the other side of the aisle are calling for cuts to Social Security and Medicare, and many have referred to these programs as socialism throughout their existence," Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) said on the House floor during debate. "The other night in the Rules Committee, they showed their cards. Republicans refused an amendment to declare that Social Security and Medicare is not socialism."

"This resolution is little about intelligent discourse and everything to do about laying the groundwork to cut Social Security and Medicare," he added.

Additionally, some Democrats who voted against the measure have been described as democratic socialists. Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) were all endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America in the 2022 cycle.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), who supported the resolution, condemned socialist autocrats during a speech on the House floor before taking aim U.S. leaders who attack democratic elections and other American programs.

"I rise to condemn all socialist autocrats who place power and wealth over their own citizens. Yet this resolution ignores some of their worst evils, then falls silent while American leaders mimic their cruel tactics," she said.

"Let's condemn socialist abuses, yes, but leaders on this very floor seek to overturn democratic elections, confiscate long-held rights and gut programs our families, veterans and service members need," she added.

Rep. Theresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.), who voted "present," denounced socialism on the House floor, but criticized House Republicans for spending time on that resolution and not other matters.

"i absolutely denounce the brutal and communist regimes of Castro, Maduro, Stalin and other dictators in the whereas clauses of this resolution. But sadly, instead of spending our precious moments in the People's House expanding opportunity for hard-working Americans, supporting ranchers, farmers, and rural communities, lowering health care costs and strengthening Social Security and Medicare, we're spending hours — actually days — in pure political theater," she said.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on February 05, 2023, 12:33:10 PM
A major victory for the new GOP house, no doubt.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on February 05, 2023, 12:45:10 PM
Quote from: Jacob on February 05, 2023, 12:33:10 PMA major victory for the new GOP house, no doubt.

Yeah, pointless theater that managed to split the Dems.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Zanza on February 05, 2023, 01:19:25 PM
Why don't the Democrats just vote "Present" for shenanigans like that?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: celedhring on February 05, 2023, 01:55:16 PM
I find it odd to see so many Ds voting for this. I know socialism is a curse word in the US, but still...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on February 05, 2023, 02:02:17 PM
Dems should now do one on nationalism/white supremacy and see how the GOP reacts.  :ph34r:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Syt on February 05, 2023, 02:03:24 PM
Quote from: The Larch on February 05, 2023, 02:02:17 PMDems should now do one on nationalism/white supremacy and see how the GOP reacts.  :ph34r:

By playing the victim card and accusing them of anti-white racism. Duh. :P
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on February 05, 2023, 02:13:57 PM
Quote from: Syt on February 05, 2023, 02:03:24 PM
Quote from: The Larch on February 05, 2023, 02:02:17 PMDems should now do one on nationalism/white supremacy and see how the GOP reacts.  :ph34r:

By playing the victim card and accusing them of anti-white racism. Duh. :P

They'll do that anyway.  :P
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on February 05, 2023, 02:41:16 PM
Jeez :bleeding:
How about a list of capitalist dictators and their attrocities? It's not going to look much better...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: grumbler on February 05, 2023, 03:04:28 PM
Socialism isn't an ideology, and the Democrats who voted to try to change reality are cowards and morons.  The republicans who voted to change reality were mere morons.

No one with an ounce of brains knows that there are circumstance in which the "means of production" need to be either heavily regulated or run by those who either work there or are customers there.  Social ownership should not be the default, because social ownership doesn't usually produce the kinds of excess funds needed for further investment in that producer, but the decision on regulation and ownership should be based on real considerations, not bumper sticker slogans.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 06, 2023, 06:44:53 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhaqSW0s6Ng

Santos accused of sexual harassment by prospective staffer.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Razgovory on February 06, 2023, 01:17:37 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on February 06, 2023, 06:44:53 AMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhaqSW0s6Ng

Santos accused of sexual harassment by prospective staffer.
Oh, that rascal!  What monkey shines will he get into next?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on February 07, 2023, 03:54:45 PM
Trump is reposting stuff on his Truth Social site implying DeSantis is a pedophile.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on February 07, 2023, 04:00:20 PM
Quote from: Barrister on February 07, 2023, 03:54:45 PMTrump is reposting stuff on his Truth Social site implying DeSantis is a pedophile.

Did he also want to have sex with Trump's daughter?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Tonitrus on February 07, 2023, 09:55:09 PM
Well, he and Matt Gaetz are both in Florida politics...
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on February 09, 2023, 06:04:59 PM
George Santos continuing to reach hitherto unimagined levels of scandal - the latest that he was done for stealing puppies from the Amish and selling them cutprice in New York:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-00082091
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Josquius on February 09, 2023, 06:09:04 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 09, 2023, 06:04:59 PMGeorge Santos continuing to reach hitherto unimagined levels of scandal - the latest that he was done for stealing puppies from the Amish and selling them cutprice in New York:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-00082091

 When you get involved in illegal puppy trading then you're getting into cartoon villain levels of evil.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on February 09, 2023, 06:14:01 PM
It's noteworthy to me that his homosexuality is not even an issue.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on February 09, 2023, 06:19:15 PM
Quote from: Josquius on February 09, 2023, 06:09:04 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on February 09, 2023, 06:04:59 PMGeorge Santos continuing to reach hitherto unimagined levels of scandal - the latest that he was done for stealing puppies from the Amish and selling them cutprice in New York:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-00082091

 When you get involved in illegal puppy trading then you're getting into cartoon villain levels of evil.

Well, he was already involved in stealing money from a homeless veteran's dog cancer treatment. This is just more dog-related crime shenanigans.

Btw, I checked Santos' wiki and the "Legal Issues" section is HUMONGOUS. And the false biographical statements are in a separate category from that one.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: HisMajestyBOB on February 09, 2023, 10:24:19 PM
At this point I'm just impressed that he had time to be able to do so much. Meanwhile I've put off doing various household chores for months.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2023, 11:07:28 PM
He is just a con man who took it too far. Seems like Eddie Murphy made a movie about that back in the day.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Valmy on February 09, 2023, 11:08:53 PM
Quote from: celedhring on February 05, 2023, 01:55:16 PMI find it odd to see so many Ds voting for this. I know socialism is a curse word in the US, but still...

It all depends on how you define Socialism. To many in the United States Socialism means China, the USSR, and Cuba. And if that is the definition then I guess I also condemn Socialism.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Brain on February 10, 2023, 02:03:30 AM
Resolutions like this are, at best, stupid. For several reasons.

Once you start passing resolutions like this, about stuff that you condemn in general without it being tied to some specific issue, you are saying that you are OK with everything that you haven't passed a resolution against.

Making decisions that are not actions is unsound. At best a waste of time.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: The Larch on March 02, 2023, 06:09:48 PM
QuoteHouse ethics committee announces investigation into George Santos
Bipartisan panel will look into alleged misconduct by Republican congressman who has admitted to lying about his résumé

The House ethics committee has opened an investigation into George Santos, the Republican lawmaker who admitted to lying about his résumé in his campaign to represent part of New York City's suburbs in Congress's lower chamber.

A bipartisan statement from the committee's GOP chair, Michael Guest, and the Democratic ranking member, Susan Wild, said the panel voted to create a subcommittee to look into alleged misconduct by Santos.

They specified it would investigate "whether Representative George Santos may have: engaged in unlawful activity with respect to his 2022 congressional campaign; failed to properly disclose required information on statements filed with the House; violated federal conflict of interest laws in connection with his role in a firm providing fiduciary services; and/or engaged in sexual misconduct towards an individual seeking employment in his congressional office".

Republican Dave Joyce will chair the subcommittee, alongside Democratic ranking member Susan Wild. They will be joined by Republican John Rutherford and Democrat Glenn Ivey.

Representatives for Santos did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Santos had already removed himself from his committee assignments but otherwise has refused calls from Republicans in New York to step down from office. "The committee notes that the mere fact of establishing an investigative subcommittee does not itself indicate that any violation has occurred," the statement said.

On Tuesday Santos introduced his first bill, an attempt to reverse part of Donald Trump's tax plan that limited how much homeowners could deduct in state and local property taxes, the New York Times reported
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Sheilbh on March 09, 2023, 06:39:38 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on February 09, 2023, 10:24:19 PMAt this point I'm just impressed that he had time to be able to do so much. Meanwhile I've put off doing various household chores for months.
It is remarkable. He is (allegedly) only 34 and he really has squeezed in a lot.

Latest is that George Santos also apparently behind ATM fraud a few years ago, teaching people how to clone cards:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/09/santos-masterminded-atm-fraud-feds-00086417
Quote"Santos taught me how to skim card information and how to clone cards. He gave me all the materials and taught me how to put skimming devices and cameras on ATM machines," Trelha said in the declaration that was submitted to authorities by his New York attorney, Mark Demetropoulos. POLITICO obtained a copy of the declaration.

I feel like you could probably now do a sweepstake on crimes he hasn't committed :blink:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: mongers on March 09, 2023, 07:36:55 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 09, 2023, 06:39:38 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on February 09, 2023, 10:24:19 PMAt this point I'm just impressed that he had time to be able to do so much. Meanwhile I've put off doing various household chores for months.
It is remarkable. He is (allegedly) only 34 and he really has squeezed in a lot.

Latest is that George Santos also apparently behind ATM fraud a few years ago, teaching people how to clone cards:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/09/santos-masterminded-atm-fraud-feds-00086417
Quote"Santos taught me how to skim card information and how to clone cards. He gave me all the materials and taught me how to put skimming devices and cameras on ATM machines," Trelha said in the declaration that was submitted to authorities by his New York attorney, Mark Demetropoulos. POLITICO obtained a copy of the declaration.

I feel like you could probably now do a sweepstake on crimes he hasn't committed :blink:

I'll pick incest.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on March 09, 2023, 07:38:23 PM
I'll pick armed robbery.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on March 10, 2023, 12:04:27 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on March 09, 2023, 06:39:38 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on February 09, 2023, 10:24:19 PMAt this point I'm just impressed that he had time to be able to do so much. Meanwhile I've put off doing various household chores for months.
It is remarkable. He is (allegedly) only 34 and he really has squeezed in a lot.

Latest is that George Santos also apparently behind ATM fraud a few years ago, teaching people how to clone cards:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/09/santos-masterminded-atm-fraud-feds-00086417
Quote"Santos taught me how to skim card information and how to clone cards. He gave me all the materials and taught me how to put skimming devices and cameras on ATM machines," Trelha said in the declaration that was submitted to authorities by his New York attorney, Mark Demetropoulos. POLITICO obtained a copy of the declaration.

I feel like you could probably now do a sweepstake on crimes he hasn't committed :blink:


I feel confident George Santos has not violated section 49 of the Canadian Criminal Code: alarming Her Majesty.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 04, 2023, 11:03:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 12, 2022, 07:50:25 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:01 AMBiden, as the President of the United States, is the political head of the Democratic Party. His sitting Vice President--any Vice President--is the presumptive successor. That's the way it's always been. 

This only really became true in the post war period. Before that VPs were almost always non-entities.

Fuck off, Sheldon.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Jacob on April 04, 2023, 11:06:51 AM
CdM! As cuddly as ever. Good to see you :cheers:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on April 04, 2023, 11:32:21 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 04, 2023, 11:03:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 12, 2022, 07:50:25 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:01 AMBiden, as the President of the United States, is the political head of the Democratic Party. His sitting Vice President--any Vice President--is the presumptive successor. That's the way it's always been. 

This only really became true in the post war period. Before that VPs were almost always non-entities.

Fuck off, Sheldon.

You came back just to burn Timmy from a 5 month old post?  Well to each their own...

And I don't know that the VP is the "presumptive successor".  Mike Pence certainly isn't.  It was a different dynamic, but neither was Cheney, or Quayle.  And going way back while Mondale did get the nomination he was never seen as a strong leader and went down to an epic defeat in 1984.

Heck - even Joe Biden was seen with deep scepticism when he ran in 2015-2016 for the nomination, and was not endorsed by Obama until after he won the nomination IIRC.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 04, 2023, 11:58:54 AM
Quote from: Barrister on April 04, 2023, 11:32:21 AMYou came back just to burn Timmy from a 5 month old post?  Well to each their own...

Meh, it was my first alert in the notification queue. So you can fuck off, too.

QuoteAnd I don't know that the VP is the "presumptive successor".  Mike Pence certainly isn't.  It was a different dynamic, but neither was Cheney, or Quayle.  And going way back while Mondale did get the nomination he was never seen as a strong leader and went down to an epic defeat in 1984.

Heck - even Joe Biden was seen with deep scepticism when he ran in 2015-2016 for the nomination, and was not endorsed by Obama until after he won the nomination IIRC.

Mike Pence lost reelection as a VP, not the successor to the party. 
Mondale was a sitting VP on a reelection ticket in 1980, not as the successor. 1984 was his own candidacy.
Cheney wasn't interested in being President in 2008, ergo not a the successor. 
Quayle was the sitting VP on a reelection ticket in 1992, not as the successor. Perhaps he would've been in 1996, but Bubba.
Biden didn't even run on 2016, and stated so a year in advance, so stop pulling shit out of your ass.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Barrister on April 04, 2023, 12:17:12 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 04, 2023, 11:58:54 AM
Quote from: Barrister on April 04, 2023, 11:32:21 AMYou came back just to burn Timmy from a 5 month old post?  Well to each their own...

Meh, it was my first alert in the notification queue. So you can fuck off, too.

QuoteAnd I don't know that the VP is the "presumptive successor".  Mike Pence certainly isn't.  It was a different dynamic, but neither was Cheney, or Quayle.  And going way back while Mondale did get the nomination he was never seen as a strong leader and went down to an epic defeat in 1984.

Heck - even Joe Biden was seen with deep scepticism when he ran in 2015-2016 for the nomination, and was not endorsed by Obama until after he won the nomination IIRC.

Mike Pence lost reelection as a VP, not the successor to the party. 
Mondale was a sitting VP on a reelection ticket in 1980, not as the successor. 1984 was his own candidacy.
Cheney wasn't interested in being President in 2008, ergo not a the successor. 
Quayle was the sitting VP on a reelection ticket in 1992, not as the successor. Perhaps he would've been in 1996, but Bubba.
Biden didn't even run on 2016, and stated so a year in advance, so stop pulling shit out of your ass.

I erred in stating Biden - I of course meant 2019-2020.

Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Admiral Yi on April 04, 2023, 09:43:39 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taB5b1_uTt8

Is this the thread where the Santos stuff went?

Freshman Rep Andy Ogles of Tennessee, one of the 20 McCarthy holdouts, was less than truthful about his college degree.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2023, 04:17:48 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 04, 2023, 11:03:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 12, 2022, 07:50:25 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:01 AMBiden, as the President of the United States, is the political head of the Democratic Party. His sitting Vice President--any Vice President--is the presumptive successor. That's the way it's always been. 

This only really became true in the post war period. Before that VPs were almost always non-entities.

Fuck off, Sheldon.
So, if I'm Sheldon are you Leonard or Howard?
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2023, 09:24:08 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2023, 04:17:48 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 04, 2023, 11:03:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 12, 2022, 07:50:25 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:01 AMBiden, as the President of the United States, is the political head of the Democratic Party. His sitting Vice President--any Vice President--is the presumptive successor. That's the way it's always been. 

This only really became true in the post war period. Before that VPs were almost always non-entities.

Fuck off, Sheldon.
So, if I'm Sheldon are you Leonard or Howard?

Howard.  What with Mom and all.
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: jimmy olsen on April 07, 2023, 08:37:40 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 06, 2023, 09:24:08 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2023, 04:17:48 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 04, 2023, 11:03:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 12, 2022, 07:50:25 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:01 AMBiden, as the President of the United States, is the political head of the Democratic Party. His sitting Vice President--any Vice President--is the presumptive successor. That's the way it's always been. 

This only really became true in the post war period. Before that VPs were almost always non-entities.

Fuck off, Sheldon.
So, if I'm Sheldon are you Leonard or Howard?

Howard.  What with Mom and all.

Touché! :lmfao:
Title: Re: 2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD
Post by: Eddie Teach on April 09, 2023, 05:59:35 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on April 06, 2023, 04:17:48 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on April 04, 2023, 11:03:06 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 12, 2022, 07:50:25 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 10, 2022, 07:03:01 AMBiden, as the President of the United States, is the political head of the Democratic Party. His sitting Vice President--any Vice President--is the presumptive successor. That's the way it's always been. 

This only really became true in the post war period. Before that VPs were almost always non-entities.

Fuck off, Sheldon.
So, if I'm Sheldon are you Leonard or Howard?

Why can't he be Kuthrapali?