Recent posts

#41

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Jacob - Today at 12:08:53 PM

It's simple reasoning. Liberals good, conservatives bad. Antisemitism is bad, thus obviously no liberal can be antisemitic.

You have a curious use of the term "liberal".

#42

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Barrister - Today at 12:05:32 PM

Just re '93 election.  Reform (Canada) did have a regional base in western Canada (and it had started as a western-only party) but by 93 it had opened itself up to everywhere (except Quebec).  In order to get the conservatives to 2 seats Reform still got large enough numbers of votes in Ontario in particular to prevent the PCs from winning (and people forget that Reform even won a seat in Ontario).  This was also the first election for the BQ which helped take down the PCs in Quebec, which had been a stronghold.

That makes sense and points to a key difference. Reform UK don't really have a base to build on. They've been going since 2018 and have one MP who was a Tory defector and one Member of the London Assembly (which has a PR element).

They've consistently under-performed in real elections compared to how they should perform in those elections given the national polling numbers. I don't really know that they have a geographic base and I'm not even sure if they really have a voter coalition. I don't know who their base is at this point. I think Reform Canada had that sorted out well in advance of 1993.

There was an Economist piece recently, which I think is true, that they're (currently) less a political party than a ghost at the feat to terrify Tory MPs and lure them to go right which wouldn't necessarily work and would help Labour who are absolutely dominating the centre now.

OK, but my point wasn't "you need a base".  I mean you do if you want Reform to grow as a viable political party.

But if you want Jos's dream scenario of a total Conservative destruction you need Reform to do reasonably well across the country in order to draw votes from the Conservatives and allow Labour (or LibDems) to win a plurality even in what were once Conservative safe seats.

#43

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 11:57:47 AM

Straws are bad for your stomach.

[Opening new fronts does seem to be to Russia's advantage.]

#44

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 11:56:07 AM

The Russians are attacking Kharkiv again. From the north, as has been hinted at for the past few weeks

As I said a page or two back and was shouted down.
Hopefully Ukraine was prepared enough for it. Opening new fronts does seem to be to Russia's advantage.
I guess/hope Russia are just doing this to try and grab all they can before Ukraine is fully rearmed rather than genuinely seeing serious opportunity for a breakthrough.

I'm not a military guy, but I'm not so sure.  Ukraine is the one defending, it's supply lines are short.  It's relatively easy for Ukraine to pull units from the south to the north.  Russia is attacking.  It's supply lines are long.  It's much further for them to move a unit from the south to the north.

Juggling units around the "bulge" of Ukraine would be a pain for them for sure.
However Russias supply lines are pretty short coming straight from Russia and most critically Ukraine has big manpower problems at the moment.
When you've got numbers but not quality then you need maximum contact points to push your advantage

#45

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 11:50:06 AM

Just re '93 election.  Reform (Canada) did have a regional base in western Canada (and it had started as a western-only party) but by 93 it had opened itself up to everywhere (except Quebec).  In order to get the conservatives to 2 seats Reform still got large enough numbers of votes in Ontario in particular to prevent the PCs from winning (and people forget that Reform even won a seat in Ontario).  This was also the first election for the BQ which helped take down the PCs in Quebec, which had been a stronghold.

That makes sense and points to a key difference. Reform UK don't really have a base to build on. They've been going since 2018 and have one MP who was a Tory defector and one Member of the London Assembly (which has a PR element).

They've consistently under-performed in real elections compared to how they should perform in those elections given the national polling numbers. I don't really know that they have a geographic base and I'm not even sure if they really have a voter coalition. I don't know who their base is at this point. I think Reform Canada had that sorted out well in advance of 1993.

There was an Economist piece recently, which I think is true, that they're (currently) less a political party than a ghost at the feat to terrify Tory MPs and lure them to go right which wouldn't necessarily work and would help Labour who are absolutely dominating the centre now.

#46

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Barrister - Today at 11:47:25 AM

The Conservatives are on a war path against Tim Horton's new woke coffee lids.

This is serious debate.

It's not "the Conservatives" - it's one Conservative backbench MP.

And those non-plastic straws really do suck.

I get a Tim's coffee every morning because it's convenient, but honestly about 1 time in 10 the cup already starts just leaking in my hands after awhile.

#47

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Barrister - Today at 11:38:12 AM

On Reform - I don't know if it's something they're looking at or thinking about. But I would say that I've seen at least one piece basically saying the last piece for a Canada 93 scenario would be Farage returning to lead Reform where they would play exactly the role of Reform in 93. Though I think it's unclear whether or not Reform UK have a real geographic base in the way Reform Canada did which, I think, is necessary in a FPTP system. Farage is personally pretty toxic with a lot of voters - he's run in many elections and never won a seat and it's not clear that, say, the Red Wall would swing Reform given that they've swung pretty hard to Labour so far.

Just re '93 election.  Reform (Canada) did have a regional base in western Canada (and it had started as a western-only party) but by 93 it had opened itself up to everywhere (except Quebec).  In order to get the conservatives to 2 seats Reform still got large enough numbers of votes in Ontario in particular to prevent the PCs from winning (and people forget that Reform even won a seat in Ontario).  This was also the first election for the BQ which helped take down the PCs in Quebec, which had been a stronghold.

It's also worth saying on PP which may be counter-intuitive for the Canadians that it's not the populist wing who are interested in him (they have Farage and Johnson, after all). It's more the policy focused/centre-right to libertarian wing who have been saying for years that housing is causing problems for the conservatives among young people (reinforced by banging on about Brexit and cultural issues that they don't care about). The appeal of PP is that by focusing on real issues like housing they have an example of a right wing leader winning over younger voters and looking set to win. In a way, it's basically an argument of expanding your elderly base to include the elderly working class (Farage and Johnson), or trying to form an inter-generational party on the right which means having to have an offer for young people whose biggest issue is housing.

OK fair enough.  From a Canadian perspective Poilievre will dabble in more populist and culture issues as well as emphasizing some policy views like on housing.  That's why your analysis wouldn't necessarily have been obvious to me, although it makes sense when you say it that way.

#48

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 11:31:46 AM

The Conservatives are on a war path against Tim Horton's new woke coffee lids.

This is serious debate.

#49

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 11:28:38 AM

Sheilbh, you have often commented that the UK Conservatives are fascinated by our own PP. Are the Reform folks there trying to do what the Reformers did here?

To be clear I don't think the Tories as they're in office now are that interested in PP. I think they're still very focused on re-running the 2010s playbook and also, perhaps, realise that they can't do it after 14 years in office.

The interest is in the sort of right-wing think tank/commenter world who are starting to think about what comes next - and there is a group there that's very interested in PP.

On Reform - I don't know if it's something they're looking at or thinking about. But I would say that I've seen at least one piece basically saying the last piece for a Canada 93 scenario would be Farage returning to lead Reform where they would play exactly the role of Reform in 93. Though I think it's unclear whether or not Reform UK have a real geographic base in the way Reform Canada did which, I think, is necessary in a FPTP system. Farage is personally pretty toxic with a lot of voters - he's run in many elections and never won a seat and it's not clear that, say, the Red Wall would swing Reform given that they've swung pretty hard to Labour so far.

It's also worth saying on PP which may be counter-intuitive for the Canadians that it's not the populist wing who are interested in him (they have Farage and Johnson, after all). It's more the policy focused/centre-right to libertarian wing who have been saying for years that housing is causing problems for the conservatives among young people (reinforced by banging on about Brexit and cultural issues that they don't care about). The appeal of PP is that by focusing on real issues like housing they have an example of a right wing leader winning over younger voters and looking set to win. In a way, it's basically an argument of expanding your elderly base to include the elderly working class (Farage and Johnson), or trying to form an inter-generational party on the right which means having to have an offer for young people whose biggest issue is housing.

[Opening new fronts does seem to be to Russia's advantage.]

#50

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Barrister - Today at 11:09:10 AM

The Russians are attacking Kharkiv again. From the north, as has been hinted at for the past few weeks

As I said a page or two back and was shouted down.
Hopefully Ukraine was prepared enough for it. Opening new fronts does seem to be to Russia's advantage.
I guess/hope Russia are just doing this to try and grab all they can before Ukraine is fully rearmed rather than genuinely seeing serious opportunity for a breakthrough.

I'm not a military guy, but I'm not so sure.  Ukraine is the one defending, it's supply lines are short.  It's relatively easy for Ukraine to pull units from the south to the north.  Russia is attacking.  It's supply lines are long.  It's much further for them to move a unit from the south to the north.