Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

He should tell his party, "either you support me, or while you organize a resistance against me I will petition the queen to call a snap election."

It wouldn't work.

It's tricksy slightly plausible nonsense. The Queen can refuse. And as Stephen Bush put it - it's not a difficult choice for the Queen: does she follow constitutional precedent and have to deal with an annoyed, incredibly popular, soon to be ex-PM for a few weeks, or annoy large chunks of the two major political parties for years.

And it is worth noting that Starmer's leadership is in doubt because of the covid fine possibility. I can't imagine the palace calling an election at the request of a man who doesn't have the support of parliament when the leadership of both major parties is in doubt. It's fully within the Lascelles principles and parliament is sovereign not the PM - and he doesn't command a majority in parliament.

Yeah though as they resign and if others don't take their place, makes it hard for the government to function.

Already happening - Labour reporting that bills are being pulled from committee because there's no minister responsible for them.

I bet $204 for a potential profit of $95 that he won't last as PM until the end of August.

At the minute I'd be surprised if he lasts until the end of July

[Admiral Yi]

I always find the lack of resignations in other countries weird - especially the US. I just don't really understand how it works in a system where people don't feel they should resign or get pressured into it. It's always a bit baffling - I can't work out what the control mechanism or steam valve is when things go badly wrong politically.

In the US every cabinet member is replaceable and it doesn't bring down the government.  The president still finishes out his term.

[Barrister]

I always find the lack of resignations in other countries weird - especially the US. I just don't really understand how it works in a system where people don't feel they should resign or get pressured into it. It's always a bit baffling - I can't work out what the control mechanism or steam valve is when things go badly wrong politically.

In the US every cabinet member is replaceable and it doesn't bring down the government.  The president still finishes out his term.

If a US Cabinet member resigns they become nothing.

But a cabinet member in a  parliamentary system remains an MP, and you still need that person's vote in order to maintain power.  Cabinet members are supposed to support the government line, but as a backbench MP you have more freedom to speak out against your own party.

[Gups]

I bet $204 for a potential profit of $95 that he won't last as PM until the end of August.

Good bet. He won't last til the end of next week

[Josquius]

Ah Gove. Could have scored points by quitting too but no, he's sacked.

I still remain skeptical Johnson will finally go. He is like a very bad smell.

[Sheilbh]

Sure I get that, I wasn't really thinking cabinet secretaries - but more governors, senators etc. It could just be an impression but it seems like generally people don't seem to resign or even get fired in what seem like fairly big scandals.

I know he did resign eventually but I couldn't believe how long Cuomo tried to stay, for example.

[Grey Fox]

I'd wager that Johnson will lead the Tories in the next election. Doubling down is how you win at politics nowadays. This storm will also pass.

[Sheilbh]

Ah Gove. Could have scored points by quitting too but no, he's sacked.

I still remain skeptical Johnson will finally go. He is like a very bad smell.

Incredible - and weirdly fitting end to their drama since 2016.

I saw that Tory MP talking about the 1922 describing getting rid of Johnson earlier saying "it's going to take a forklift to get him out of Number 10. So it's up to us to make the forklift". I think tonight they tried the traditional option to get out with a little dignity - cabinet and senior backbencher telling him to go and that he doesn't have the support of the party any more.

He has decided he wants to actually fight it (I'm unsure how long that determination will last) but that just means things are delayed until Monday - unless the 1922 decide to move sooner.

[PJL]

I'd wager that Johnson will lead the Tories in the next election. Doubling down is how you win at politics nowadays. This storm will also pass.

I can see that possibility happening, with the twist of the election being within the next 2 months, if he goes for a snap election in the next few days. But otherwise, there is no chance of Johnson being PM other than in a caretaker role after the end of next week.

[alfred russel]

I always find the lack of resignations in other countries weird - especially the US. I just don't really understand how it works in a system where people don't feel they should resign or get pressured into it. It's always a bit baffling - I can't work out what the control mechanism or steam valve is when things go badly wrong politically.

There were some people who resigned after Jan 6. But I recall at least people didn't want to see resignations, because if all the sane people resigned that just left the lunatics, and every resignation was one less person in the room that would presumably vote to invoke the 25th amendment if it came to that.

[Admiral Yi]

Sure I get that, I wasn't really thinking cabinet secretaries - but more governors, senators etc. It could just be an impression but it seems like generally people don't seem to resign or even get fired in what seem like fairly big scandals.

I know he did resign eventually but I couldn't believe how long Cuomo tried to stay, for example.

You can't fire a governor or senator. 

[Sheilbh]

You can't fire a governor or senator. 

Yes - I get that (cut and changed my post mid way). Firing for cabinet secretaries - the one I was was thinking of there is Eric Holder. No idea how he survived so long. For governors and senators, resignations.

Edit: Incidentally on Gove - I don't agree with Gove on much. But I think he's the most competent minister since 2010.

A sign of that is that I'm seeing social housing and cladding campaigners (who are not naturally sympathetic to any Tory minister and I imagine were pretty dubious about Gove coming in) are posting that it's basically a shame that he's going because after years of campaigning and no-one listening they were getting meetings with Gove and felt they were making progress. It reminds of the Friends of the Earth rating him as the best DEFRA Secretary they'd dealt with in years, or penal reformers regretting when he left the Justice Department.

I don't think any of those groups are ideological bedfellows with Gove - but he is competent and he tries to do things.

[Admiral Yi]

Yes - I get that (cut and changed my post mid way). Firing for cabinet secretaries - the one I was was thinking of there is Eric Holder. No idea how he survived so long. For governors and senators, resignations.

You're thinking fast and furious?

[Syt]

Video from the BBC coverage:

https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1544760371998871552

INCREDIBLE SCENES:

BBC News accidentally cut away to their news studio, showing a presenter with their feet on the desk.

Screenshots:

[Sheilbh]

You're thinking fast and furious?

Yeah.

Separately with all of this happening in Westminster it is worth noting that the SNP have a parallel scandal. And it's another example of the SNP doing the exact same thing as the Tories, if not worse, but facing no consequences because the national media don't care about Scotland.

Their chief whip groped a young man who works for the party in a bar (he was also groped by another SNP MP in a separate incident). The party leader then arranged a meeting between whip and the victim, without informing him - so the guy who'd been groped went to a meeting that he thought was one on one to find his attacker in the room.

They've re-instated the chief whip and the leader was recorded saying that they all need to rally around him because it's been awful for him. Today it's been revealed that the SNP have now threatened the victim (a party staffer) with misconduct action and have locked him from his work email after he sent an email to MPs/staff criticisng the party response.

I just wish this story got some of the attention and people who are rightly outraged by the Pincher story noticed it because it's only being covered by the Scottish press (except for the National, obviously).