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#11
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 05:16:27 AMYep, much better to be a consultant to government than an employee.
#12
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Josquius - Today at 05:13:59 AMI have noticed with the civil service a few years ago it seemed like a decent career option, I interviewed for a few positions in my time (recently learned you always need 5 years continuous residence or you fail their security checks and are rejected, something which they never said outright, which makes me feel a bit better about them).
But as I've progressed a bit more I've noticed they've stayed the same, and would now be quite a salary drop if I were to go down that path.
I also know they make heavy use of contractors rather than directly employed people...which doubtless costs them a lot more.
But as I've progressed a bit more I've noticed they've stayed the same, and would now be quite a salary drop if I were to go down that path.
I also know they make heavy use of contractors rather than directly employed people...which doubtless costs them a lot more.
#13
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 04:55:13 AMQuote from: Tamas on Today at 04:24:36 AMQuote from: crazy canuck on Today at 02:20:45 AMOn the other hand if we indulge in pure propaganda for the sake of morale how then can there be a discussion within democratic societies which points to the woeful levels of support being given to obtain the objective of the propaganda.
That's a valid point of course.
But still, we should not be talking about an assured/imminent Ukrainian defeat right after any tactical (I don't think we can confirm there's even an operational breakthrough yet) success by Russia.
Who has talked about an assured Russian victory.l? No one has claimed that. But lots of folks here are claiming that there is no chance of it occurring which seems foolhardy to me. And more to the point if extended to our political leaders, very counter productive.
#14
Off the Record / Re: Hungarian Politics
Last post by Threviel - Today at 04:48:12 AMIsn't that why five eyes exist? Only the core can be trusted with the real secrets and so on.
#15
Off the Record / Re: The China Thread
Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 04:26:16 AMQuote from: Jacob on May 16, 2024, 04:30:09 PMI don't think "kids waving flags" is inherently a totalitarian aesthetic. You'll see it with royal birthdays and visits and whatnot.Yeah - and the reality is I think kids would get pretty excited (or easy to hype) about seeing the President or the King or whatever.
I think other things around it can make it more or less totalitarian feeling, of course - mostly staging and context.
As you say though, it's the staging which looks a bit less like just kids getting excited.
#16
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Tamas - Today at 04:24:36 AMQuote from: crazy canuck on Today at 02:20:45 AMOn the other hand if we indulge in pure propaganda for the sake of morale how then can there be a discussion within democratic societies which points to the woeful levels of support being given to obtain the objective of the propaganda.
That's a valid point of course.
But still, we should not be talking about an assured/imminent Ukrainian defeat right after any tactical (I don't think we can confirm there's even an operational breakthrough yet) success by Russia.
#17
Off the Record / Re: Hungarian Politics
Last post by Tamas - Today at 04:22:29 AMMore importantly there's something that should collapse any government but unlikely that the Hungarian populace will care:
During the campaign of 2022 news surfaced that the Russians hacked the foreign office in a massive way. I don't remember the details but it was considered evident that it was true but government officials denied it and called it a "campaign lie".
Yesterday one of the independent news sites got hold of some internal documents confirming the hack and it's massive scale. They confronted the country's so called Foreign Minister (Russian Asset Hanging out of Orban's Ass would be a more apt title) who became very threatening after seeing the doc, so it must be true.
Apparently, in late 2021, the intelligence services reported on massive damages. User accounts with the highest admin privileges were compromised, due to this they had to consider more than 4000 workstation and 930 servers as unreliable and unsecure. They concluded that the entire infrastructure must be assumed to be unsecure. They also reported they have evidence that the hacking was done by the 3 Russian secret services.
In other words the government knew that their entire infrastructure, or at the very least the Foreign Ministry's was wide open (may still be wide open) for Russian intelligence services but not only denied this, but Orban continued to play thelapdog friend for Putin.
I do very much hope, as much as that pains me, that all NATO states treat the Hungarian government as hostile agents and keep classified stuff well away from them, because clearly they must assume that anything the Hungarian government reads the Russians are reading as well.
During the campaign of 2022 news surfaced that the Russians hacked the foreign office in a massive way. I don't remember the details but it was considered evident that it was true but government officials denied it and called it a "campaign lie".
Yesterday one of the independent news sites got hold of some internal documents confirming the hack and it's massive scale. They confronted the country's so called Foreign Minister (Russian Asset Hanging out of Orban's Ass would be a more apt title) who became very threatening after seeing the doc, so it must be true.
Apparently, in late 2021, the intelligence services reported on massive damages. User accounts with the highest admin privileges were compromised, due to this they had to consider more than 4000 workstation and 930 servers as unreliable and unsecure. They concluded that the entire infrastructure must be assumed to be unsecure. They also reported they have evidence that the hacking was done by the 3 Russian secret services.
In other words the government knew that their entire infrastructure, or at the very least the Foreign Ministry's was wide open (may still be wide open) for Russian intelligence services but not only denied this, but Orban continued to play the
I do very much hope, as much as that pains me, that all NATO states treat the Hungarian government as hostile agents and keep classified stuff well away from them, because clearly they must assume that anything the Hungarian government reads the Russians are reading as well.
#18
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 04:22:10 AMI think I've mentioned this problem before and it's not just cybersecurity.
You've got fairly strict civil service grades = x salary (with or without a London extra of a couple of grand). The civil service that doesn't really like having anyone outside that grading, but also the civil service doesn't really respect or see that specialists might be different.
It's all designed around generalists who move across departments and focused on policy. If you're not moving around then you're not moving up. I've mentioned before someone I know in the civil service who's never been in a role for more than three years and - off the top of my head has been in Health, DWP and the Home Office. Which clashes with areas where you need deep specialist knowledge who should, perhaps, be paid more. So for example the person running say, energy markets and relationships with those regulations is more likely to be someone in their late twenties who'll do that for a couple of years (probably on somewhere around £40k a year) than someone with sector experience.
I know people here will hate mentioning him but it is also something Dominic Cummings bangs on about particularly with the vaccines - where I think he's totally right. His evidence has been that they explicitly set up the covid vaccine unit outside of the Department of Health (but reporting into it) and brought in someone from the life sciences venture capital world to run it. That obviously worked very well. That unit was intended to keep going basically for vaccine procurement but also funding more broadly - as he points out, needless to say it has since been brought fully into the Department of Health and I imagine is now headed by a PPE grad in their late 20s running it for a couple of years before moving onto their next department.
It's a problem (and one that people have been banging on about for about 60 years
) - I think it's a big issue on the commercial/procurement side too. They do often have pretty excellent lawyers in my experience but I think they often recruit from law firms with people who have been on a very good salary and basically pitch it as generally a better work/life balance and the most interesting work they'll ever get to do.
But I'd add that my experience of senior civil servants is that they are the poshest people I've ever met - and I went to a university filled with Oxbridge rejects
You've got fairly strict civil service grades = x salary (with or without a London extra of a couple of grand). The civil service that doesn't really like having anyone outside that grading, but also the civil service doesn't really respect or see that specialists might be different.
It's all designed around generalists who move across departments and focused on policy. If you're not moving around then you're not moving up. I've mentioned before someone I know in the civil service who's never been in a role for more than three years and - off the top of my head has been in Health, DWP and the Home Office. Which clashes with areas where you need deep specialist knowledge who should, perhaps, be paid more. So for example the person running say, energy markets and relationships with those regulations is more likely to be someone in their late twenties who'll do that for a couple of years (probably on somewhere around £40k a year) than someone with sector experience.
I know people here will hate mentioning him but it is also something Dominic Cummings bangs on about particularly with the vaccines - where I think he's totally right. His evidence has been that they explicitly set up the covid vaccine unit outside of the Department of Health (but reporting into it) and brought in someone from the life sciences venture capital world to run it. That obviously worked very well. That unit was intended to keep going basically for vaccine procurement but also funding more broadly - as he points out, needless to say it has since been brought fully into the Department of Health and I imagine is now headed by a PPE grad in their late 20s running it for a couple of years before moving onto their next department.
It's a problem (and one that people have been banging on about for about 60 years
) - I think it's a big issue on the commercial/procurement side too. They do often have pretty excellent lawyers in my experience but I think they often recruit from law firms with people who have been on a very good salary and basically pitch it as generally a better work/life balance and the most interesting work they'll ever get to do.But I'd add that my experience of senior civil servants is that they are the poshest people I've ever met - and I went to a university filled with Oxbridge rejects
#19
Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...
Last post by The Brain - Today at 03:55:31 AMI'm not convinced Swedish youtubers are an authority.
#20
Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...
Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 03:26:22 AM"They" don't actually do a good job of it.
https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy
QuoteDoes this mean that polls just aren't accurate? Not always, but they can present a different picture than reality. This is largely because "the real margin of error is often about double the one reported," Pew wrote. Many polls typically have a margin of error less than 3%, which "leads people to think that polls are more precise than they really are," the outlet added. But this margin "addresses only one source of potential error: the fact that random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance."
There are at least three other identifiable sources of data errors that can come from poll taking, Pew added, but most polls don't calculate these metrics into their margins of error. The differing approaches in how polls are taken can also have "consequences for data quality, as well as accuracy in elections," Pew added. As a result, a 2016 study from The New York Times showed, the actual margin of error in most historical polls is closer to 6% or 7%, not 3%. This represents an error range of 12 to 14 data points, the Times said.
https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy