Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

Started by Josquius, February 20, 2016, 07:46:34 AM

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How would you vote on Britain remaining in the EU?

British- Remain
12 (12%)
British - Leave
7 (7%)
Other European - Remain
21 (21%)
Other European - Leave
6 (6%)
ROTW - Remain
34 (34%)
ROTW - Leave
20 (20%)

Total Members Voted: 98

Admiral Yi

Quote from: LaCroix on February 21, 2016, 04:31:37 AM
so, unlike the candy, it can be true. just highly over-reported? I wonder what an arab could actually do with seven children, a burka, and no job. some think prosper. is that really true?

I don't think I've ever read a single story about lazy immigrants mooching off the dole.

Maybe once or twice in passing talking about some jihadist imam doing it.

Martinus

One thing that puzzles me in all the analyses of Brexit is how little space is devoted to considering indirect effects on the British economy. Britain has a relatively stagnant domestic market - a lot of its economy is generated by providing banking, insurance, advisory and legal services to external clients. A lot of this is influenced by the fact that British banks and insurers can operate on a cross border basis in countries like Germany and France (which actually do have domestic economy and industry), rulings of English courts are automatically enforceable across the EU (that is why English - not German or NY - law is the law of choice for European cross border transactions), etc. It is extremely naive that once Britain exits the EU, the bankers, insurers and lawyers from Frankfurt, Dusseldorf, Munich or Paris will let their governments agree to their Brish competitors continuing to enjoy these privileges.

But at least there is, therefore, hope that Brexit would stop immigrants from coming to the UK - because they will no longer want to.

celedhring

The EU held all the aces; as you say, Brexit would cripple the UK. However, some of the demands the UK made, in particular those focusing on immigration, are shared by other EU governments, and Cameron has been smart to lean on that.

Richard Hakluyt

Cameron's error was pandering too much to his domestic audience rather than leading the critics within the EU. It is shocking to think how poor British diplomacy is these days.

I think that many of our problems here in the UK are due to a false or outdated concept of where the country is heading. Back in the 1970s the population was stagnant and net immigration was negative most years. I think we still have the same mindset as we had in those years but net migration is now 300,000+ and the population is expanding at about 1% per annum. As a consequence there is insufficient housing and public services struggle to cope. This is a problem of success and I'd much rather have that success than be a country with a declining population and all the problems that brings. The pressure an increasing population has on housing and services is particularly bad for the less skilled parts of the British population, one reason why they are so anti the EU whereas the elite sections are generally pro-EU.

See this article for more details on that split http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21693223-britains-great-european-divide-really-about-education-and-class-tale-two-cities .

(Incidentally, I see that marti is persisting in his strange belief that the UK does not have an industrial sector. In fact, at 10% of GDP, our industrial sector is similar in size to that of France or the USA. It is Germany, with 20%, that is the weirdo in advanced economies so there  :P )



Caliga

If I was British no way in hell would I want to be part of any union including Greece, Italy, and other such dysfunctional economies.
0 Ed Anger Disapproval Points

Martinus

Quote from: Caliga on February 21, 2016, 06:45:08 AM
If I was British no way in hell would I want to be part of any union including Greece, Italy, and other such dysfunctional economies.

Ok, now I see how you guys must feel when us Euros make those ignorant, idiotic statements about American politics...

garbon

Apparently BoJo will be pushing for the UK to leave the EU.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."

I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Martinus

Quote from: garbon on February 21, 2016, 10:59:32 AM
Apparently BoJo will be pushing for the UK to leave the EU.

He is an idiot after all.

grumbler

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on February 21, 2016, 06:20:12 AM
(Incidentally, I see that marti is persisting in his strange belief that the UK does not have an industrial sector. In fact, at 10% of GDP, our industrial sector is similar in size to that of France or the USA. It is Germany, with 20%, that is the weirdo in advanced economies so there  :P )

I think his belief that " a lot of [Britain's] economy is generated by providing banking, insurance, advisory and legal services to external clients" is even stranger than his belief that the UK has no industrial sector. Financial services are a big part of the UK economy (highest in the G-7 at 8.1%, with Canada second at 6.7% - numbers from end of 2014), but 8% isn't all to external clients and even if it were, 8% isn't "a lot of" the UK's economy.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

grumbler

Quote from: Martinus on February 21, 2016, 11:10:35 AM
Quote from: garbon on February 21, 2016, 10:59:32 AM
Apparently BoJo will be pushing for the UK to leave the EU.

He is an idiot after all.

Irony isn't just the opposite of wrinkly.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Martinus

#40
Quote from: grumbler on February 21, 2016, 11:33:44 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on February 21, 2016, 06:20:12 AM
(Incidentally, I see that marti is persisting in his strange belief that the UK does not have an industrial sector. In fact, at 10% of GDP, our industrial sector is similar in size to that of France or the USA. It is Germany, with 20%, that is the weirdo in advanced economies so there  :P )

I think his belief that " a lot of [Britain's] economy is generated by providing banking, insurance, advisory and legal services to external clients" is even stranger than his belief that the UK has no industrial sector. Financial services are a big part of the UK economy (highest in the G-7 at 8.1%, with Canada second at 6.7% - numbers from end of 2014), but 8% isn't all to external clients and even if it were, 8% isn't "a lot of" the UK's economy.

This is just financial services.

However, the fact that London is the financial centre for the EU brings other types of business there as well - legal services, accounting, menial services for the well paid financial elite and oligarchs who move there attracted by the status of London, arts, international education, hotels, business travel etc.

Zanza

#41
Is there any kind of timeline in case Britain votes to leave? I guess it wouldn't be effective immediately.

If Boris Johnson for example says he wants a "better deal", is there any kind of idea how to get such a deal?

Richard Hakluyt

There is a provision for a state leaving, at least two years are available for the two parties to agree the terms of the exit etc :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union


MadImmortalMan

Quote from: celedhring on February 21, 2016, 05:10:54 AM

Before the recession (and its spending cuts), our public health care system was better than the NHS. It was one of the best in the world, actually. It's still pretty good despite the cuts.

"Health care tourism" from eastern Europe and such was used by right wing scaremongers to limit access to health care to foreigners (including EU nationals) during the recession too.

I was under the impression you guys had a sort of cross-charging system, so that the user's home state would pay for care in a different part of the union.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

Zanza

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on February 21, 2016, 01:11:05 PM
There is a provision for a state leaving, at least two years are available for the two parties to agree the terms of the exit etc :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union
That timeframe doesn't matter anyway as it can be extended indefinitely. I was more interested in what the "Vote Leave" faction has in mind. Did they already outline what the "better deal" consists of and how to get there?