So, the Fed has cut the interest rate, first time in a decade.
We will be in recession by this time next year, I am calling it.
Change my mind!
Well we have the best people on it, and the greatest economy and most loved president ever, so fake news.
Precession.
Let's just say that I have deliberately kept my options open regarding where to live, etc. Note that I am touring Europe soon, specifically Spain and Italy, two states that I've spent a good deal of time looking into their emigration laws.
This is not news, my friend, to anyone that's been paying attention. :P
Booker is a young multi-ethnic Ivy League law school grad currently serving as a junior Senator, who uses lefty rhetoric at times but has a rep of governing and legislating as a moderate.
The comparison to Obama is hard to avoid and unfortunately it's not that favorable to Booker - Obama is more "cool" in just about every sense and is a more talented public speaker. Plus Booker has to compete against Obama's VP.
I think if Obama had never been President, Booker's candidacy might have more traction.
Wrong thread.
Quote from: merithyn on August 01, 2019, 11:12:03 AM
Let's just say that I have deliberately kept my options open regarding where to live, etc. Note that I am touring Europe soon, specifically Spain and Italy, two states that I've spent a good deal of time looking into their emigration laws.
This is not news, my friend, to anyone that's been paying attention. :P
Perhaps not the best choices for riding out the coming storm.
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 01, 2019, 11:53:59 AM
Perhaps not the best choices for riding out the coming storm.
They've both hit bottom and are heading up (cheap to buy now), plus are buoyed by the EU. There's nothing to support the US when it tanks. Plus, c'mon. It's Spain! Or Italy! If I'm going to ride out a recession, why not go there??
Quote from: merithyn on August 01, 2019, 12:02:05 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 01, 2019, 11:53:59 AM
Perhaps not the best choices for riding out the coming storm.
They've both hit bottom and are heading up (cheap to buy now), plus are buoyed by the EU. There's nothing to support the US when it tanks. Plus, c'mon. It's Spain! Or Italy! If I'm going to ride out a recession, why not go there??
I like your thinking, Meri; a friend of mine is going to New Zealand to escape the pending Brexit disaster. :bowler:
Italy is heading straight for the shitter.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 01, 2019, 11:41:10 AM
Booker is a young multi-ethnic Ivy League law school grad currently serving as a junior Senator, who uses lefty rhetoric at times but has a rep of governing and legislating as a moderate.
The comparison to Obama is hard to avoid and unfortunately it's not that favorable to Booker - Obama is more "cool" in just about every sense and is a more talented public speaker. Plus Booker has to compete against Obama's VP.
I think if Obama had never been President, Booker's candidacy might have more traction.
What about Takeheraway?
Quote from: merithyn on August 01, 2019, 12:02:05 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 01, 2019, 11:53:59 AM
Perhaps not the best choices for riding out the coming storm.
They've both hit bottom and are heading up (cheap to buy now), plus are buoyed by the EU. There's nothing to support the US when it tanks. Plus, c'mon. It's Spain! Or Italy! If I'm going to ride out a recession, why not go there??
They're just behind Greece for the worst places to be in a recession?
Rather be in a recession in Italy than a boom in Zimbabwe.
Quote from: merithyn on August 01, 2019, 12:02:05 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 01, 2019, 11:53:59 AM
Perhaps not the best choices for riding out the coming storm.
They've both hit bottom and are heading up (cheap to buy now), plus are buoyed by the EU. There's nothing to support the US when it tanks. Plus, c'mon. It's Spain! Or Italy! If I'm going to ride out a recession, why not go there??
Italy is about as unstable politically as they come and are going hard right. Spain is a great place to visit for lengthy amounts of time but to actually work there? I am not so sure.
And that is in the best of times. When another great recession hits those two countries are going to suffer.
Quote from: merithyn on August 01, 2019, 12:02:05 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 01, 2019, 11:53:59 AM
Perhaps not the best choices for riding out the coming storm.
They've both hit bottom and are heading up (cheap to buy now), plus are buoyed by the EU. There's nothing to support the US when it tanks. Plus, c'mon. It's Spain! Or Italy! If I'm going to ride out a recession, why not go there??
Spain is superb in pretty much anything but jobs. It's a pretty big con, though.
Last I heard they are making it even harder to get in, too. You'd need ~40k € salary to qualify for our H1B equivalent, which in the private sector is something like the 95 percentile.
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 01, 2019, 12:32:03 PM
Italy is about as unstable politically as they come and are going hard right. Spain is a great place to visit for lengthy amounts of time but to actually work there? I am not so sure.
And that is in the best of times. When another great recession hits those two countries are going to suffer.
My employment is portable, and while not entirely recession-proof, it's about as close as you can get. All I need is a cheap place to land.
There are good (or at least valid) arguments for Spain IMHO, but Italy has a very decent chance of turning VERY nasty.
Quote from: merithyn on August 01, 2019, 12:53:51 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 01, 2019, 12:32:03 PM
Italy is about as unstable politically as they come and are going hard right. Spain is a great place to visit for lengthy amounts of time but to actually work there? I am not so sure.
And that is in the best of times. When another great recession hits those two countries are going to suffer.
My employment is portable, and while not entirely recession-proof, it's about as close as you can get. All I need is a cheap place to land.
Not only cheap but someplace that actually has jobs on offer. If you can get a job in Spain that will survive an economic downturn then more power to you :)
My only point is there are better economic options than Spain.
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 01, 2019, 01:29:51 PM
Not only cheap but someplace that actually has jobs on offer. If you can get a job in Spain that will survive an economic downturn then more power to you :)
I have a relatively-recession proof job that will move with me. I won't need a job offer.
Quote
My only point is there are better economic options than Spain.
There are other options, yes. I'm saying that Spain has it's own appeal to me.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on August 01, 2019, 11:43:21 AM
Wrong thread.
he's our last hope to stop the recession damn it
Big defensive dive into bonds today, the treasury yield curve inversion deepened despite the Fed's move. That would tend to provide support for Tamas' side of the bet.
The real question is not whether there will be a recession - sooner or later it always happens and getting the exact timing is a fool's game. The question is how bad and how deep it will be.
Quote from: Tamas on August 01, 2019, 06:07:10 AM
So, the Fed has cut the interest rate, first time in a decade.
We will be in recession by this time next year, I am calling it.
Change my mind!
If we're going to have a recession, best if it hits before the 2020 general election.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 01, 2019, 04:05:58 PM
Big defensive dive into bonds today, the treasury yield curve inversion deepened despite the Fed's move. That would tend to provide support for Tamas' side of the bet.
The real question is not whether there will be a recession - sooner or later it always happens and getting the exact timing is a fool's game. The question is how bad and how deep it will be.
Rubbish, the revenues from the amazing Trump tariffs will see America through the worst.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 01, 2019, 04:05:58 PM
Big defensive dive into bonds today, the treasury yield curve inversion deepened despite the Fed's move. That would tend to provide support for Tamas' side of the bet.
The real question is not whether there will be a recession - sooner or later it always happens and getting the exact timing is a fool's game. The question is how bad and how deep it will be.
Not too worried about getting the timing right, I know it is coming and I am just waiting for it to happen with cash on hand to buy when it does. I missed some of the last bit of this upside but I can sleep at night.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 01, 2019, 04:05:58 PM
Big defensive dive into bonds today, the treasury yield curve inversion deepened despite the Fed's move. That would tend to provide support for Tamas' side of the bet.
The real question is not whether there will be a recession - sooner or later it always happens and getting the exact timing is a fool's game. The question is how bad and how deep it will be.
My normally-bullish financial advisor and I agreed today that we were going to retreat from the market. He's been right every time so far.
Hold on to your socks, not your stocks.
I keep having thoughts of a man in naval uniform (which is how always imagine Grumbler) and a Minotaur running in panic.
If a recession is coming, I'd prefer it start 1st quarter next year, rather than this fall. Better impact on the election.
Germany probably already is in a recession as it looks like the economy might at best stagnate, more likely shrink in the current quarter after a contraction in the second quarter. Germany has low unemployment and reasonable debt though, so it should cope.
My industry - automotive- is already in a global recession as markets everywhere are contracting. At the same time, huge investments are necessary. We had seven fat years, now it looks like lean years ahead...
How much is the severity of a recession linked to reputable analysts warning about the recession and market participants acting on those warnings?
Meri, if you have to choose, then I'd say pick Spain over Italy. The latter is currently ruled by far right nationalist traitors in Putin's pocket.
Two weeks ago I was talking to one of our macroeconomics experts at the business school I collaborate with. FWIW he was expecting Spain to enter recession in Q4 2020.
Quote from: Razgovory on August 01, 2019, 11:08:03 PM
I keep having thoughts of a man in naval uniform (which is how always imagine Grumbler) and a Minotaur running in panic.
OK, I"m going to have to withdraw the lucid comment. :P
Quote from: Syt on August 02, 2019, 12:49:37 AM
How much is the severity of a recession linked to reputable analysts warning about the recession and market participants acting on those warnings?
IIRC it was last week Economist ran an analysis on the puzzling phenomenon of a recession not starting despite it should. I think one of the big puzzlements was the lack of inflatory pressure in the world.
I of course managed to buy my couple of stocks near the top of the heydays. :lol: But whatever, I am not going to sell them, will ride out the storm, it's very little money anyways.
The million dollar question though is: can I expect the English property market to see a significant downturn i.e. cheapening? Originally I was hoping that the removal of government incentives to have buy-to-rent properties, coupled with an upward creeping base interest rate will wipe off most of the profit of the tons of amateur middle-class investors, pushing prices downwards as they begin to sell.
The market has been stagnating it would seem, and even declining in my area a bit (allegedly), but if we go back to absolutely zero interest rates, I doubt this will continue.
Quote from: Syt on August 02, 2019, 12:49:37 AM
How much is the severity of a recession linked to reputable analysts warning about the recession and market participants acting on those warnings?
The problem with recessions is we could already be in it without knowing it yet because of the lag time in assessing the economic data. By the time a recession is confirmed it has already happened. There has been a lot of talk about the end of this unprecedented economic growth for a few quarters. What effect did that analysis have in actually causing a recession? Good question.
Quote from: Tamas on August 02, 2019, 04:55:41 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 02, 2019, 12:49:37 AM
How much is the severity of a recession linked to reputable analysts warning about the recession and market participants acting on those warnings?
IIRC it was last week Economist ran an analysis on the puzzling phenomenon of a recession not starting despite it should. I think one of the big puzzlements was the lack of inflatory pressure in the world.
If I were to guess, I think lower inflation and income inequality are linked. The growth in income mainly goes to the class that spends extra money not on extra consumption, but on extra investment. Therefore inflation manifests itself as an asset bubble rather than a classic demand-pull inflation.
We are in a rentier-favorable economy. Piketty thesis.
Quote from: Solmyr on August 02, 2019, 01:43:25 AM
Meri, if you have to choose, then I'd say pick Spain over Italy. The latter is currently ruled by far right nationalist traitors in Putin's pocket.
I think that she speaks Spanish anyway, but AFAIK not Italian, so I'd think Spain would be a better choice for her simply on that basis.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 02, 2019, 02:27:46 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on August 01, 2019, 11:08:03 PM
I keep having thoughts of a man in naval uniform (which is how always imagine Grumbler) and a Minotaur running in panic.
OK, I"m going to have to withdraw the lucid comment. :P
I have no idea what people are saying now. Minotaurs I get. When Pasiphae said she was feeling "quite bullish" I knew exactly what she was going on about. When Dguller talks about asset bubbles, I'm completely lost.
German GDP growth was -0.1% last month, and the US yield curve has apparently inverted, for the first time since 2007. The UK one followed suit as a good vassal state should.
Quote from: Tamas on August 14, 2019, 05:45:56 AM
German GDP growth was -0.1% last month, and the US yield curve has apparently inverted, for the first time since 2007. The UK one followed suit as a good vassal state should.
The US yield curve has been inverted for months, IIRC since March.
IDK they seem to be making a big deal out of it happening today:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/aug/14/germany-economy-shrinks-gdp-recession-uk-inflation-stock-markets-business-live?page=with:block-5d53de348f084f687f3563bc#block-5d53de348f084f687f3563bc
Also, Trump's cabinet is declaring that it is all the Fed's fault for not slashing interest rates quickly enough.
That's going to help!
China released some economic data today that were below expectations as well.
Germany's GDP growth has been essentially flat since 3Q 2018. Hard Brexit is likely to happen. Ongoing trade war between U.S. and China. Nowhere to go for yield except US treasuries, driving down the yield further.
Everyone sees what's happening.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 14, 2019, 08:48:02 AM
Quote from: Tamas on August 14, 2019, 05:45:56 AM
German GDP growth was -0.1% last month, and the US yield curve has apparently inverted, for the first time since 2007. The UK one followed suit as a good vassal state should.
The US yield curve has been inverted for months, IIRC since March.
True, but I think what everyone is talking about is this:
QuoteOn Wednesday morning, the signal being sent by the bond market worsened further, as the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds plunged to about 1.60 percent as of 11 a.m. At some points, that rate fell even below the equivalent rate on two-year bonds.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/upshot/global-economic-trouble-is-brewing-and-the-trade-war-is-only-part-of-it.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Well, we finally know who's responsible!
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
17h
The Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election. The problem they have is that the economy is way too strong and we will soon be winning big on Trade, and everyone knows that, including China!
Quote from: Syt on August 16, 2019, 05:24:58 AM
Well, we finally know who's responsible!
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
17h
The Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election. The problem they have is that the economy is way too strong and we will soon be winning big on Trade, and everyone knows that, including China!
:lol:
It is incredible how low the office of the POTUS and with it world politics have sunk, and so quickly. Can you guys remember that Obama was this idiot's predecessor? And to think I was fairly lukewarm on that guy because he couldn't achieve the sweeping changes he promised? Now he seems like such a high standard that we may not see for decades, maybe not even in my lifetime.
What a shame.
Yes the news media absolutely wants the economy to crash. Their industry is so healthy I think a new newspaper or news service opens every week to take advantage of this wealth bonanza. They know they can easily ride out any recession.
I mean they probably are desperate for him to be re-elected so they can keep getting clicks.
Anyway I sure hope the economy doesn't go into recession. This was my main fear when the President got elected, that his stupid trade and tax policies would eventually harm the recovery. I hoped, and still hope, we could replace him before that happened.
Quote from: Valmy on August 16, 2019, 10:27:08 AM
Yes the news media absolutely wants the economy to crash. Their industry is so healthy I think a new newspaper or news service opens every week to take advantage of this wealth bonanza. They know they can easily ride out any recession.
I mean they probably are desperate for him to be re-elected so they can keep getting clicks.
Anyway I sure hope the economy doesn't go into recession. This was my main fear when the President got elected, that his stupid trade and tax policies would eventually harm the recovery. I hoped, and still hope, we could replace him before that happened.
I think it goes beyond Trump and he only makes things worse but not solely responsible.
In fact I'd appreciate if this thread would not turn into a Trump thread, we have about 5 of those already, and it is depressing.
Quote from: Tamas on August 16, 2019, 06:25:40 AM
Quote from: Syt on August 16, 2019, 05:24:58 AM
Well, we finally know who's responsible!
QuoteDonald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
17h
The Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election. The problem they have is that the economy is way too strong and we will soon be winning big on Trade, and everyone knows that, including China!
:lol:
It is incredible how low the office of the POTUS and with it world politics have sunk, and so quickly. Can you guys remember that Obama was this idiot's predecessor? And to think I was fairly lukewarm on that guy because he couldn't achieve the sweeping changes he promised? Now he seems like such a high standard that we may not see for decades, maybe not even in my lifetime.
What a shame.
I am beginning to think that there is something to the theory that we are living in a simulation. Someone got bored with seeing strong liberal democratic institutions evolve and play out and decided to alter the parameters of the program.
We're in a hotseat game of Dwarf Fortress and Jaron has taken the helm.
Quote from: Tamas on August 16, 2019, 10:29:36 AM
Quote from: Valmy on August 16, 2019, 10:27:08 AM
Yes the news media absolutely wants the economy to crash. Their industry is so healthy I think a new newspaper or news service opens every week to take advantage of this wealth bonanza. They know they can easily ride out any recession.
I mean they probably are desperate for him to be re-elected so they can keep getting clicks.
Anyway I sure hope the economy doesn't go into recession. This was my main fear when the President got elected, that his stupid trade and tax policies would eventually harm the recovery. I hoped, and still hope, we could replace him before that happened.
I think it goes beyond Trump and he only makes things worse but not solely responsible.
In fact I'd appreciate if this thread would not turn into a Trump thread, we have about 5 of those already, and it is depressing.
The problem is it is hard to separate Trump from the discussion of the causes.
Krugman had this to say today in his NYtimes piece,
QuoteBut even if Trump and company aren't the source of all of our economic difficulties, you still want some assurance that they'll deal effectively with problems as they arise. So what kind of contingency planning is the administration engaged in? What are officials considering doing if the economy does weaken substantially?
The answer, reportedly, is that there is no policy discussion at all, which isn't surprising when you bear in mind the fact that basically everyone who knows anything about economics left the Trump administration months or years ago. The advisers who remain are busy with high-priority tasks like accusing The Wall Street Journal editorial page of being pro-Chinese.
No, the administration's only plan if things go wrong seems to be to blame the Fed, whose chairman was selected by ... Donald Trump. To be fair, it's now clear that the Fed was wrong to raise short-term rates last year.
But it's important to realize that the Fed's mistake was, essentially, that it placed too much faith in Trumpist economic policies. If the tax cut had actually produced the promised boom, if the trade war hadn't put a drag on growth, we wouldn't have an inverted yield curve; remember, the Fed didn't cause the plunge in long-term rates, which is what inverted the curve. And the Trump boom wasn't supposed to be so fragile that a small rise in rates would ruin it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/opinion/trump-economy.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Quote from: Habbaku on August 16, 2019, 10:42:14 AM
We're in a hotseat game of Dwarf Fortress and Jaron has taken the helm.
:D
Quote from: Habbaku on August 16, 2019, 10:42:14 AM
We're in a hotseat game of Dwarf Fortress and Jaron has taken the helm.
:jaron:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECXBZKaW4AAQXoa?format=jpg&name=small)
Keep a careful watch on the leveraged loan and high yield (i.e. junk) bond markets. Leveraged loans are basically ultra-junk corporate loans that use similar "covenant-lite" terms as was the fashion during the subprime mortgage crisis - and like those subprime loans, they are typically diced and packaged into CLOs. That market hit $1 trillion in June but since has dried up and recently there were a couple defaults and some deal fails. The borrowers that can are issuing junk bonds instead. But Goldman released analysis late last week showing that defaults are rising in the high yield market and is an pace to set a post-08 record this year. Even as investors are piling into treasuries and investment grade corporates, high yield is performing poorly and spreads are widening.
There is risk of contagion as a large percentage of leveraged loans are held by banks in the conventional banking system. The danger is that the events of 08-09 replay but in market for corporate debt as opposed to mortgages.
I'm really afraid of 08 type recession. Quick action on Bush's part an a willingness to do something extremely unpopular by Congress kept us afloat. I'm afraid the political will isn't there anymore. And even if it is, do we have enough money to throw at the problem?
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 20, 2019, 02:20:07 PM
Keep a careful watch on the leveraged loan and high yield (i.e. junk) bond markets. Leveraged loans are basically ultra-junk corporate loans that use similar "covenant-lite" terms as was the fashion during the subprime mortgage crisis - and like those subprime loans, they are typically diced and packaged into CLOs.
so I guess no one learned.
Quote from: Razgovory on August 20, 2019, 02:40:53 PM
I'm really afraid of 08 type recession. Quick action on Bush's part an a willingness to do something extremely unpopular by Congress kept us afloat. I'm afraid the political will isn't there anymore. And even if it is, do we have enough money to throw at the problem?
An analyst this morning was pointing out that it took concerted joint efforts of all the Western economies working closely together both at the political level and at the level of the various national banks. None of which is remotely possible today.
Dodd-Frank curtailed the emergency powers of the Federal Reserve so yes the power to prevent the spread of financial contagion has been compromised.
how do i short the world economy
Quote from: Habbaku on August 20, 2019, 03:38:23 PM
how do i short the world economy
Gold is the traditional hedge but it is already very expensive.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 20, 2019, 03:44:03 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on August 20, 2019, 03:38:23 PM
how do i short the world economy
Gold is the traditional hedge but it is already very expensive.
Not at previous ATH, though, so arguably room for improvement.
Bitcoin it is.
Bitcoin is going long on hot air.
Guns, ammo, and canned food are also fairly traditional.
QuoteAmerica's factory sector is shrinking for the first time in almost a decade -- a sign that the trade war with China may be hurting.
Data firm Markit has just reported that its US manufacturing PMI has fallen to 44.9, down from 50.4 in July.
This is the first time since September 2009 that this PMI has dropped below 50.0 -- the point that separates expansion from contraction.
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/37e737be740210c6961b67f9d8f418d729547541/0_0_635_754/master/635.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=9d39db4aa0db4ab1d91f813dc7053177)
A-aah!!
Interesting speech by the Fed Chair, particularly the bit about low inflation being the challenge of this era.
Why would low inflation be bad? :hmm:
I suppose it hurts our exports competitiveness?
Quote from: Valmy on August 23, 2019, 10:55:55 AM
Why would low inflation be bad? :hmm:
I suppose it hurts our exports competitiveness?
Somebody here will surely put it in better words than me, but in short it shows that demand is slowing down, since sustained consumer demand drives up prices. Slow demand then slows down business investments, etc... it can become a bit of a vicious circle.
Quote from: Valmy on August 23, 2019, 10:55:55 AM
Why would low inflation be bad? :hmm:
I suppose it hurts our exports competitiveness?
2% inflation seems to be the benchmark smarter people than us have chosen for a healthy economy - too low or too high from there is not so good. Here is an article from 2017 - first one that popped up, describing why low inflation below 2% is bad.
https://econofact.org/whats-the-problem-with-low-inflation
In addition Picketty did a pretty good analysis of the relationship between low inflation and extreme economic inequality.
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 23, 2019, 11:53:46 AM
https://econofact.org/whats-the-problem-with-low-inflation
QuoteLow inflation can be a signal of economic problems because it may be associated with weakness in the economy. When unemployment is high or consumer confidence low, people and businesses may be less willing to make investments and spend on consumption
Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.
Quote from: Valmy on August 23, 2019, 03:59:42 PM
Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.
Modern civilization is too efficient so we can't keep everybody employed by producing only things we actually require, hence we need people to buy things they actually don't.
Quote from: Valmy on August 23, 2019, 03:59:42 PM
Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.
I expect it's at least partially a result of increased income and wealth inequality, but I am no economist.
Quote from: celedhring on August 23, 2019, 04:08:59 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 23, 2019, 03:59:42 PM
Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.
Modern civilization is too efficient so we can't keep everybody employed by producing only things we actually require, hence we need people to buy things they actually don't.
You can always go for more leisure rather than more useless crap. Would thing really be awful if 10 hours of work a week would be productive enough to fulfill all your material needs?
Quote from: Valmy on August 23, 2019, 03:59:42 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 23, 2019, 11:53:46 AM
https://econofact.org/whats-the-problem-with-low-inflation
QuoteLow inflation can be a signal of economic problems because it may be associated with weakness in the economy. When unemployment is high or consumer confidence low, people and businesses may be less willing to make investments and spend on consumption
Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.
Is that all you learned from the link?
Quote from: DGuller on August 23, 2019, 04:37:40 PM
Quote from: celedhring on August 23, 2019, 04:08:59 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 23, 2019, 03:59:42 PM
Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.
Modern civilization is too efficient so we can't keep everybody employed by producing only things we actually require, hence we need people to buy things they actually don't.
You can always go for more leisure rather than more useless crap. Would thing really be awful if 10 hours of work a week would be productive enough to fulfill all your material needs?
The real trouble here is I can't parcel my leisure out very well in most industries, but have to essentially purchase leisure in a big chunk at the end of working life. It is, I suppose, possible for many people to transition to part-time work as they age rather than stopping all at once, but that's not practical for most.
Quote from: Habbaku on August 23, 2019, 05:00:56 PM
The real trouble here is I can't parcel my leisure out very well in most industries, but have to essentially purchase leisure in a big chunk at the end of working life. It is, I suppose, possible for many people to transition to part-time work as they age rather than stopping all at once, but that's not practical for most.
I mostly just work half-assed to maximize my leisure.
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 23, 2019, 04:56:54 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 23, 2019, 03:59:42 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on August 23, 2019, 11:53:46 AM
https://econofact.org/whats-the-problem-with-low-inflation
QuoteLow inflation can be a signal of economic problems because it may be associated with weakness in the economy. When unemployment is high or consumer confidence low, people and businesses may be less willing to make investments and spend on consumption
Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.
Is that all you learned from the link?
No. That was a very interesting link. Thanks.
I was just making a joke about Americans failing to consume enough.
Quote from: Habbaku on August 23, 2019, 05:00:56 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 23, 2019, 04:37:40 PM
Quote from: celedhring on August 23, 2019, 04:08:59 PM
Quote from: Valmy on August 23, 2019, 03:59:42 PM
Americans are...not consuming enough? All those pointed critiques of our consumer culture artists have kept making for the past century must have finally had an impact.
Modern civilization is too efficient so we can't keep everybody employed by producing only things we actually require, hence we need people to buy things they actually don't.
You can always go for more leisure rather than more useless crap. Would thing really be awful if 10 hours of work a week would be productive enough to fulfill all your material needs?
The real trouble here is I can't parcel my leisure out very well in most industries, but have to essentially purchase leisure in a big chunk at the end of working life. It is, I suppose, possible for many people to transition to part-time work as they age rather than stopping all at once, but that's not practical for most.
Yeah, the fact that productivity is probably superlinear with hours worked up to a point makes it hard to buy more leisure incrementally. More stuff would be produced by 25% of workers putting in 40 hours a week compared to 100% of workers putting in 10 hours. I don't know what the solution is, but I'm not convinced there isn't one.
I've been saying this for years, it isn't just Americans.
Where once the biggest limiter in the economy was how much could be produced, for some time now consumers have been a more valuable commodity than producers.
UBS saying to sell stocks
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/the-worlds-biggest-wealth-manager-just-told-clients-to-sell-stocks-—-saying-brace-for-higher-volatility-from-the-trade-war/ar-AAGpc1B?ocid=spartanntp (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/the-worlds-biggest-wealth-manager-just-told-clients-to-sell-stocks-%E2%80%94-saying-brace-for-higher-volatility-from-the-trade-war/ar-AAGpc1B?ocid=spartanntp)
Quote from: HVC on August 27, 2019, 10:32:02 AM
UBS saying to sell stocks
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/the-worlds-biggest-wealth-manager-just-told-clients-to-sell-stocks-—-saying-brace-for-higher-volatility-from-the-trade-war/ar-AAGpc1B?ocid=spartanntp (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/the-worlds-biggest-wealth-manager-just-told-clients-to-sell-stocks-%E2%80%94-saying-brace-for-higher-volatility-from-the-trade-war/ar-AAGpc1B?ocid=spartanntp)
Does that mean they have already taken up short positions, or that they are still looking to buy? :P
Quote from: HVC on August 27, 2019, 10:32:02 AM
UBS saying to sell stocks
I think UBS has always been in favor of selling stocks, as needed. Now they aren't saying sell off all stocks, but, rather, take a more conservative position less dependent on stocks.
The right stocks still represent a good long-term value.
yeah, they say to diversify and sell off higher risk stocks. the article itself says a recession is unlikely, but I wanted to be alarmist dammit lol
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EENFeCLWkAEGAh4?format=png&name=900x900)
Google searches cause recessions! :mad:
Quote from: Habbaku on September 11, 2019, 02:24:11 PM
Google searches cause recessions! :mad:
They are getting the propaganda machine ready to blame twitter leftists for all of Donald Trump's mistakes.
I work as a programmer in the world of industrial communication. The company I work on grows about 20% a year and has been doing that for many years, we're about 500 employees or so.
Building stuff used in factory construction means that we are amongst the first to feel a crisis and the first to get out of it. Apparently right now we are being hit by a perfect storm, crisis in Asia because of the trade wars, crisis in Europe because of Brexit and the auto industry and declining sales in the US. Global sales have taken a very sharp sudden plunge and for the first time we are being hit by lay-offs.
I'm probably safe, having worked at the company for 8 years, but one can never be too sure.
Some recent hiccups in the critical short term corporate funding markets - first the overnight "repo" rate suddenly spiked to 10% and then a few days later, the two-week borrowing rate had a similar jump. In both cases the Fed acted quickly and decisively to inject funds. Question is whether these are just anomalies that happen from time to time or reflective of underlying nervousness and instability
Apparently I was less safe than assumed. So nowadays I program for food :(
At least I got pay until march, so if I'm lucky and finds a new job I'll get double pay.
Thanks Trump! :yuk:
:(
Hang in there!
Quote from: Threviel on October 08, 2019, 09:56:01 AM
Apparently I was less safe than assumed. So nowadays I program for food :(
At least I got pay until march, so if I'm lucky and finds a new job I'll get double pay.
Thanks Trump! :yuk:
Sorry to hear that :(
Well, there's a shortage of skilled people in Canada... ;)
Cape Breton Island still wants you!
There's not really a shortage of jobs, I live an hour from Swedens second city and the center of Swedish car industry, there's a huge shortage of embedded developers. It's just that one hour is 15 minutes more than what I had, and that's to the southern part of the town. Volvo is on an island in the northern part. It's a bit of a problem with the kids.
On the other hand I'll probably get a higher wage.
I got the info yesterday, signed the papers today. Tomorrow I'll start calling around.
So. I got a new job, with a small company making digital locks used by public services. Higher wage and I still get my old wage until March, so all is hopefully good.
:thumbsup: