Recent posts

#41

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - May 03, 2024, 01:47:59 PM

Lot of spoilt votes in Preston, up to 10% in areas where most of our Muslims live. I would imagine this is a good measure of disenchantment with Labour over Gaza.

#42

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - May 03, 2024, 01:35:52 PM

Incidentally really struck that Houchen and Street especially (https://x.com/andy4wm/status/1785744953923998079?s=46&t=o9GOIj6BKKcLcHiyQTlAoA) winning with messages around building things. Seems interesting given the extent to which the Tories nationally and in other areas have lashed themselves to the NIMBY mast (and not unlike Labour in Manchester).

I think there is a big potential there for Labour if they can deliver.

#43

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Josquius - May 03, 2024, 01:19:27 PM

When they come to power Labour really need to fix this transparent tory gerrymandering fptp crap in local elections at least.

#44

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by garbon - May 03, 2024, 01:14:21 PM

Looks like Labour are worried about Khan in a way that goes beyond just expectations management.

Obviously voting system moved to FPTP this year. But the bigger concern seems to be that it looks like turnout is lower in Labour areas - add that to defections to the Greens (both probably because of Gaza) and it could be enough for Khan to lose.

Although I think Stephen Bush is probably right on his hunch of 38-35, Khan winning.

I'd add that this is the second election where Khan has fallen short of expectations. The only election he really trounced was his first - and I suspect part of this is because he is a pretty underwhelming mayor. Not helped by a Tory government that wants to make life difficult for him, but still. I feel like going for a third term was probably not a great idea and Labour would be better served by letting someone else have a crack in 2028.

Edit: Also looks like ULEZ has come up in motivating voters to turnout in Tory areas.

I made sure my husband got to the polls but yeah, after this definitely time for Sadiq to move on.

#45

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - May 03, 2024, 12:59:07 PM

Looks like Labour are worried about Khan in a way that goes beyond just expectations management.

Obviously voting system moved to FPTP this year. But the bigger concern seems to be that it looks like turnout is lower in Labour areas - add that to defections to the Greens (both probably because of Gaza) and it could be enough for Khan to lose.

Although I think Stephen Bush is probably right on his hunch of 38-35, Khan winning.

I'd add that this is the second election where Khan has fallen short of expectations. The only election he really trounced was his first - and I suspect part of this is because he is a pretty underwhelming mayor. Not helped by a Tory government that wants to make life difficult for him, but still. I feel like going for a third term was probably not a great idea and Labour would be better served by letting someone else have a crack in 2028.

Edit: Also looks like ULEZ has come up in motivating voters to turnout in Tory areas.

#46

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by grumbler - May 03, 2024, 12:46:07 PM

Depends, really.

 

#47

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by The Minsky Moment - May 03, 2024, 12:45:22 PM

Under the Canadian Constitution immigration is expressly reserved for the federal government (well "Naturalization and Aliens"), but even more generally any power not expressly enumerated to the provinces will go to the Feds.  That's how the Feds have jurisdiction over such topics that were not even conceived of in 1867 like aeronautics or radio waves.

Is there a similar "reserve clause" in the US Constitution?

There is a reserve clause but it goes the opposite way!  The 10th amendment provides: The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

As you indicate above, Chinese exclusion was passed about a century after the Constitution (and is hardly a shining moment for the American historical scrapbook).  The Supreme Court did cop out along the lines that Otto indicated, grasping at the straw of "inherent sovereign power" - a supposed authority that crops up from time to time whenever the executive does something blatantly unconstitutional but the Court finds it politically inconvenient to call them on it. The notion of inherent sovereign power is fundamentally at odds with the US constitutional design and both the text and purpose of the 10th Amendment; among other dubious features, the doctrine bases federal authority on international practice of other sovereigns, whether free or not (in the 18th century - mostly not).

The power could be based on the Commerce Clause as interpreted from 1941 to around the mid 90s, but historically was not for the obvious reasons, and probably couldn't now after the ACA case.

#48

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Barrister - May 03, 2024, 12:27:56 PM

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nijjar-killing-arrests-made-1.7192807

Apparently arrests made in the killing of "prominent Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar".

This was the killing intelligence linked to the Indian government.

This could get "interesting"...

#49

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Tamas - May 03, 2024, 12:19:50 PM

Being anti-Islamic is not white supremacist,

Sure, but the GOP is.

#50

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by HVC - May 03, 2024, 12:15:47 PM

And now Tamas understands my position--the West needs to actively resist its Islamization. No Western country should be letting even a single Muslim move in, Muslim non-citizens need to be harried and deported as much as legally possible.

I may understand your position but you sure as hell don't understand your own. Unleashing a randomised demented wrecking ball on your own country as well as its international relations cannot possibly be an improvement for "your position". You are either trolling or have been itching for the slightest of excuses to go back to the GOPs warm white supremacist embrace.

I'm waiting for the Damascene conversion to Islam.