2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[grumbler]

Trump has a fanatical following and a fanatical group of people opposed to him.  And events since the 2020 election have  increased his support not at all but has increased the size of the fanatically anti-Trump crowd. And 2020 was not all that close:  306 EV to 232, 81M votes to 74M

BB:  I never said that "Trump can't win,"  I said that I thought that he was too damaged to win.

[Barrister]

Trump has a fanatical following and a fanatical group of people opposed to him.  And events since the 2020 election have  increased his support not at all but has increased the size of the fanatically anti-Trump crowd. And 2020 was not all that close:  306 EV to 232, 81M votes to 74M

BB:  I never said that "Trump can't win,"  I said that I thought that he was too damaged to win.

HAs it increased the number of anti-Trump votes, or just increased the fervency of their anti-Trumpness?

Looking at total votes isn't helpful and Trump lost the total votes in 2016.  Electoral college wasn't razor-thin, but only requires flipping 3-4 states.

So like I said - by 2024 voters don't want to hear about Jan 6, memories of Trump's time in office aren't quite so fresh.  I think Biden has done fine, but he has negative approval numbers.   It doesn't take much for enough voters to switch to Trump (or enough 2020 anti-Trump voters to stay at home) to throw the vote to Trump.

[crazy canuck]

Why do you think voters won't care about Jan 6 in 2024? Short memories or some other reason?

[Barrister]

Why do you think voters won't care about Jan 6 in 2024? Short memories or some other reason?

Short memories mostly.  Besides it didn't succeed, did it?  So it's not a big deal to some - in particular when violent crime is up 5% in their neighbourhood!!!

I'm going to repeat myself - in a Trump v Biden matchup, Trump is leading in the polls...

[Barrister]

And don't forget there's also third party threats.  You already have Cornell West running for the People's Party (which was formed to try and draft Bernie to run third party, but he wanted nothing to do with it).  You have the "No Labels" people trying to maybe draft Joe Manchin (he hasn't committed either way).  And you have RFK Jr running in the Dem primary but with such an eclectic base of support (*cough Bannon) not impossible to imagine him going third party.

And I dare say they all draw more rom the Dems and the GOP.  And it doesn't take much in a close election for a third party to change the results.

[Josquius]

Iirc last election wasn't the main 3rd party the libertarians drawing away conservatives who couldn't quite bring themselves to do the right thing but weren't irredeemable?

I do expect suppressing the Biden vote to be the main tactic of the reps.

Also, it is worth remembering many years have passed since 2016. I think millenials may now be the biggest group of voters. Boomers are dropping like flies. And all data suggests millianls are far more left wing than previous generations with minimal rightwards move as they age.
I do believe that 2016, in the UK and US, was a high point of such shit and now it's a slow battle to cut back the vines and try to restore normalcy - something that could be quite a bit harder in the American system.

[grumbler]

HAs it increased the number of anti-Trump votes, or just increased the fervency of their anti-Trumpness?

Looking at total votes isn't helpful and Trump lost the total votes in 2016.  Electoral college wasn't razor-thin, but only requires flipping 3-4 states.

So like I said - by 2024 voters don't want to hear about Jan 6, memories of Trump's time in office aren't quite so fresh.  I think Biden has done fine, but he has negative approval numbers.   It doesn't take much for enough voters to switch to Trump (or enough 2020 anti-Trump voters to stay at home) to throw the vote to Trump.

Has the number of women infuriated by the Trump Court's removal of their rights just forgotten about that?  Casey is an albatross around Trump's neck.

I am also not as positive as you that 2024 voters "don't want to hear about Jan 6."  A large majority of Americans feel the investigations into Trump are merited.  Even among Republicans, only 45% believe that he did nothing wrong.

Biden has negative approval ratings, but Trump has catastrophically bad approval ratings: 39% positive, 51% negative.  Among independents, only 37% positive. 

Don't call them 'witch hunts.' Most Americans say investigations into Trump are fair

Goofy Trump only lost the general by 2 million votes, while evil Trump lost it by 9 million.  Hard to see him "flipping 3-4 states" when its only gotten worse for him.  His approval rating was 49% heading into the 2020 elections.  It's 39% now.  The argument that people are just forgetting all the bad Trump stuff and are more willing to vote for him now doesn't withstand a look at the evidence.

[Barrister]

Goofy Trump only lost the general by 2 million votes, while evil Trump lost it by 9 million.  Hard to see him "flipping 3-4 states" when its only gotten worse for him.  His approval rating was 49% heading into the 2020 elections.  It's 39% now.  The argument that people are just forgetting all the bad Trump stuff and are more willing to vote for him now doesn't withstand a look at the evidence.

Then why is Trump leading Biden in head-to-head polling?

Most off-year elections are a referendum on the incumbent.  In 2020 that was Trump, and he lost.

In 2024 that will be Biden.  We've had a few turbulent years - first coming through the second year of the pandemic, then all the supply shocks and inflation of the after-pandemic.  Obviously there's still another year and a half to go (Bush 41 was flying high in mid-1991, while Clinton didn't look so hot in mid-1995) but right now Biden is in an uphill battle.

Now there is the possibility that Trump's ego means he can't help but make it a referendum on himself yet again.  But I wouldn't want to count on that.

[viper37]

But someone like Jos or Oex - Trump's biggest sin isn't the whole overthrowing democracy bit - it's that he's right-wing.  Which I understand, kind of, but profoundly disagree.

Being right wing is to want to overthrow democracy.

Because, obviously, so many people on the left love democracy and free speech.

[viper37]

To pin everything on Trump is missing that underlying trend, and making yourself blind to similarly concerning types of stunt-politics, Schmittian embrace of power for power's sake that exists, and thrives, quite outside of Trump.

Trump fits very poorly on the right-wing dichotomy. But the people who are applauding, and egging him on are right-wing. I know this is uncomfortable if you self-describe as conservative, but that's how it is right now.

I agree with what you say, but I think you're again missing BB's point.

Trump is the one leading them to the revolution.  Without Trump, the Republicans have a lesser chance to win.

You may find them all bad, but you're not a Republican elector.

Democrats have played a dangerous game of pushing for the most extremists Republicans to be selected in the Congressional primaries last time, and it didn't work that well.

I don't think banking on Trump to be selected by the GOP so he would lose the general election is a good bet.

[viper37]

And I get what you're all saying about Republican gerrymandering, or Supreme Court Justices, or DeSantis trying to bully Disney.  But that's all still authoritarian in a normal 'within the lines' kind of way.  Trump is the one who has called for the Constitution to be overturned.

If it winds up being DeSantis vs Biden then you can all try to convince me (and my all important non-citizen non-vote) to support Biden go ahead.  But we're at the GOP Primary stage, and the only priority should be stopping Trump.

Got it - you're more okay with Hitler passing the Enabling Act in 1933 than with him trying to do a coup / overthrow the Bavarian regional govt from the outside in 1923. At least the former to you is within the system. Getting rid of democracy is okay if it's legal.

What he's saying is, while there's an election for leadership of the Nazi party, knowing how bad Adolf Hitler is, do you want people of the NSDAP electing him as their leader or do you prefer them choosing Himmler?

[Josquius]

What he's saying is, while there's an election for leadership of the Nazi party, knowing how bad Adolf Hitler is, do you want people of the NSDAP electing him as their leader or do you prefer them choosing Himmler?

Surely in this analogy he's the one saying Himmler hasn't done anything wrong and would be fine.

[Tamas]

I sympathise with those remaining conservatives who do not want to accept that the only people left to (claim to) represent their views when running for office are anti-democratic fascists, but sadly that is the case.

There are only two policies left in politics to take a side on: "soft" fascist autocracy ala Russia and Hungary, or maintaining liberal democracy. Everything else is subjugated to this, the great culture war of these decades. If you can't see it and go about being lenient and sympathetic to people like the Republicans because they use the buzzwords you liked 20 years ago when they still mattered, you are deluding yourself and endangering the future of you and your children.

[The Brain]

Yes like I've said before, the important political dividing line in the 20th and 21st centuries is not between right and left but between democracy and anti-democracy.

[garbon]

I sympathise with those remaining conservatives who do not want to accept that the only people left to (claim to) represent their views when running for office are anti-democratic fascists, but sadly that is the case.

There are only two policies left in politics to take a side on: "soft" fascist autocracy ala Russia and Hungary, or maintaining liberal democracy. Everything else is subjugated to this, the great culture war of these decades. If you can't see it and go about being lenient and sympathetic to people like the Republicans because they use the buzzwords you liked 20 years ago when they still mattered, you are deluding yourself and endangering the future of you and your children.

Yeah...