Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Tamas]

Worth cross referencing with how many people in that age group have a clue who any of these groups are, or where Palestine, or hell, the middle east, is on a map.
The conflicting responses to questions asked a different way makes me suspect the results here wouldn't be great

Yeah to be fair you are almost certainly right. But I am not sure it makes it better, though.

I'm more optimistic.
I would like to hope the naiive view of the young is "Everyone should just get along and live together without killing each other". In contrast to the naiive view of older people- "Kill, kill 'em all" (usually meaning the Arabs)

Sure the problem is, according to the poll, in their youthful idealistic ignorance if they heard the news "Arab states overrun Israel and proclaim re-unified Palestine" they'd be happy because they thought occupied Palestinians were freed, ignorant of the what such an event would entail.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm more optimistic.
I would like to hope the naiive view of the young is "Everyone should just get along and live together without killing each other". In contrast to the naiive view of older people- "Kill, kill 'em all" (usually meaning the Arabs)

 

[Tamas]

I'm more optimistic.
I would like to hope the naiive view of the young is "Everyone should just get along and live together without killing each other". In contrast to the naiive view of older people- "Kill, kill 'em all" (usually meaning the Arabs)

 

This time they'll march into pogroms singing kumbaya and holding hands!

[OttoVonBismarck]

To be clear on the IDF shooting the hostages, the controversy isn't over whether it was a fuckup, it is rather "does this fuckup say something important."

I don't think it does, there's like 300,000 IDF reservists activated, this is a war that has seen 15,000+ dead already. A low level of "bad" shoots is intrinsic to war, you can find dozens of stories like this from the U.S. occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. It isn't innately proof the entire IDF is in a state of rot, anymore than those incidents were indicative of that with the U.S. military. I'll note that despite involving the world's largest military, and the country that has a media establishment that always relishes publishing military fuckups, not nearly as big a deal was made out of fuckups like this in Iraq / Afghanistan.

I'm not saying there is necessarily a "right" level of media outrage over an accidental military shooting; but I do think it is interesting to note the degree of media obsession with Israeli fuckups feels a whole order of magnitude beyond even what is typical of other Western powers engaged in conflict.

[Jacob]

For better or worse there's a very high level scrutiny on this conflict, and there are a number of reasonable reasons for that beyond simple anti-semitism.

People always care more about conflicts when they can identify a party that they see as analogous to themselves. Similarly, they care more if one of the sides take actions they can imagine being a threat to themselves. Basically, the more people can see themselves in the conflict, the more they care.

Additionally, if a conflict directly ties into local political dynamics, people will care more - whether it's because there is direct involvement or because the conflict echoes local conflicts.

So, Muslims and Arabs will naturally tend to see the Palestinians as like themselves and therefore care more. Some Westerners will picture themselves in the Israeli position, and thus sympathize more (though not to the same degree and as overwhelmingly as Muslims and Arabs feel connected to Palestinians, I suspect).

In terms of local politics, immigration and the integration of Muslims into local societies are pretty prominent political issues in much of Western Europe - and the Israel-Palestine conflict plays directly into that in a number of ways. In the US, support of Israel has been integrated into the regular political discourse for a long time.

On top of that, most Western countries have dealt with the threat of Islamist terror attacks one way or the other - which resonates pretty clearly with the Oct 7th attacks.

And to be clear, there are a whole bunch of conflicting positions within the various Western countries on these issues - and what happens in Israel and Palestine, and how, can be used to bolster or undermine arguments being made that are relevant to decisions with significant local impact (and to mark local political allegiances).

As such I think it's pretty natural for there to be a high level of interest and scrutiny.

[Valmy]

Since we are shitting on the American youth for their poll views, what do the polls say about the Israeli youth?

I mean I already linked truly unsurprising, and horrifying, views of the Palestinians.

I am just going to go out on a limb and say it is likely the views of the Israelis are not going to be any more comforting.

[Valmy]

It isn't innately proof the entire IDF is in a state of rot, anymore than those incidents were indicative of that with the U.S. military. I'll note that despite involving the world's largest military, and the country that has a media establishment that always relishes publishing military fuckups, not nearly as big a deal was made out of fuckups like this in Iraq / Afghanistan.

I don't think the IDF is in a state of rot so much as decades of violence and conflict have radicalized them.

[Josquius]

Since we are shitting on the American youth for their poll views, what do the polls say about the Israeli youth?

I mean I already linked truly unsurprising, and horrifying, views of the Palestinians.

I am just going to go out on a limb and say it is likely the views of the Israelis are not going to be any more comforting.

My bet is similar to the Palestinians?
Broadly a lot less radical than people believe before shit went down, but then please shoot them all now within recent weeks?
But haven't seen the actual numbers so who knows.

[Admiral Yi]

My bet is similar to the Palestinians?
Broadly a lot less radical than people believe before shit went down, but then please shoot them all now within recent weeks?
But haven't seen the actual numbers so who knows.

I'll take the bet.

[Solmyr]

Israel at least has internal opposition demanding a cease-fire. I bet Otto thinks they are antisemitic too.

[Valmy]

Israel at least has internal opposition demanding a cease-fire.

That is a plus.

The minus is they are almost always rejected by the Israeli voters.

[Jacob]

The Houthi are continuing attacks on shipping in the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden area. As a result BP, Mærsk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, CMA CGM, and Evergreen have all either temporarily halted shipping through the Red Sea or changed their routes to round the Cape of Good Hope. This will likely have price impacts in Europe within the next few weeks.

[Grey Fox]

They are setting themselves for a marines visit.

[Tonitrus]

Unlikely Marines...but maybe a lot of bombs.

[Sheilbh]

The Houthi are continuing attacks on shipping in the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden area. As a result BP, Mærsk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, CMA CGM, and Evergreen have all either temporarily halted shipping through the Red Sea or changed their routes to round the Cape of Good Hope. This will likely have price impacts in Europe within the next few weeks.

Yeah - I think oil and LNG prices in Europe have already shot up. I think energy is still already about four times the price it is in the US and is causing huge issues especially for industry.

US, France and UK also already have their navies in the neighbourhood to help shoot down missiles.

Two things it makes me think of is that it's another example of how Europe's security capability do not match Europe's security needs - we rely on the kindness of Americans yet again (although as this also affects Israel I don't expect that to decline any time soon).

The other is how it reinforces the logic of the Belt and Road - I remember reading how China's thinking on that started with the Iraq war and the realisation that 80% of their energy supply/oil (and many other imports and exports) went through the Straits of Malacca and they needed an alternative, non-vulnerable route to China's economy. That is, of course, the opposite to Europe's approach which has been to note strategic weaknesses (energy, trade, security etc) and lean into them