Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Valmy]

As I said the only solution for Palestine is to have some other 3rd party provide their security while they disarm the terrorists and allow the Palestinians to form a functioning government.

Otherwise I don't see any practical alternative to just...things continuing basically as they are. And that will never happen, I assume, so things will pretty much continue indefinitely. I would love for some Palestine supporter to come tell me what the better solution is though.

Yeah, it feels increasingly like Israel's best option now is occupying Gaza again.

It's very depressing.

I wish I had the forum from 2006 but I basically said that unless the Palestinians receive tons of help in Gaza they are doomed to eventually come under Israeli occupation again.  It felt like everybody was being set up to fail.

Not that the pre-2005 situation was some sort of success.

[OttoVonBismarck]

At the end of the day Israel is relatively "safe" from most of its Arab neighbors.

It is not facing invasion from Egypt and Jordan, as it once did. Syria is far too imploded from losing like a third of its population and most of its economy during its Civil War to pose any conventional military threat. Saudi Arabia is a transactionalist power disinterested in something like an Islamic crusade.

Its main enemies now are Iran, and really Iranian proxies.

The good thing is I think there is a nonzero chance America would react to an outright Iranian attack on Israel as something it had to respond to due to its implications in terms of the balance of power in the Middle East, so it is really the Iranian proxies Israel has to contend with.

All this says Israel's real immediate threat is most likely the same problem it has dealt with as its primary trouble since the end of the Arab-Israeli wars, and that is the settlement of the Palestinian problem. There is no way I see that ending without serious compromise by Israel, a major rejection of the Israeli far right and etc. Because the only brute force way to solve the problem is genocide, kill or push all the Palestinians out of the country. But Israel would have to fall into a state of true right wing autocracy and become a pariah state to do that, so that isn't (I hope) going to happen. So we are back to Israel's chief problem is really finding a way for its society to accept that Palestine gets to have a state, including most likely dismantling of at least some West Bank settlements. Dunno how things get there from here.

[Valmy]

So we are back to Israel's chief problem is really finding a way for its society to accept that Palestine gets to have a state, including most likely dismantling of at least some West Bank settlements. Dunno how things get there from here.

Current circumstances would have to fundamentally change somehow.

How many Palestinians even want permanent settlement based on a two state solution? And it is hard to imagine 2023 Israel agreeing to do something like withdraw to the 1967 borders or whatever would be required to make that feasible.

[Sheilbh]

It does feel like Hamas will be the big winners in this, after all is said and done.

It is very sad.

Maybe in the short-medium term. I think in the long run it makes it clearer that Israel cannot pretend that Palestinians and their desire for statehood don't exist and they can't reconcile within the wider region until that's resolved. I also don't think they'll be secure until then. I don't think it's impossible to see this war with Gaza, with a West Bank uprising then joined by Hezbollah.

I'd add interesting detail from something I heard from Shashank Joshi from the Economist recently on the Hezbollah risk. I hadn't appreciated that Iron Dome is basically selective in its targeting and only hits those on their way to populated areas. This works as long as Hamas and Hezbollah don't fire too many at once and while they had relatively imprecise targetting. Hamas at the start of October 7 were firing thousands which did overwhelm Iron Dome. Apparently they and Hezbollah also have increasingly precise targetting so the number to overwhelm could be reduced if all the rockets can be accurately targeted at populated areas.

That means the drift of Israeli politics for the last 20 years or so has been into a dead end and it's impossible to see them move forward with the current leadership. It also shows a need for Israel (and the West, and Arab allies) to have a Palestinian counterparty, which is not Hamas. Again I very much doubt it's the current PA leadership either.

I think what's happened points, again, to two states for two people as the only viable solution and the futility/dead end-ness of the one state solutioners either among Israelis or Palestinians. I'm not sure how long it'll take to get there especially as I think it means the dominant politicians in both Israel and Palestine will need to be replaced.

How many Palestinians even want permanent settlement based on a two state solution? And it is hard to imagine 2023 Israel agreeing to do something like withdraw to the 1967 borders or whatever would be required to make that feasible.

I believe it's down to about 30%. It was over 50% a decade ago. Support for a two state solution is also down to about 30%. But again I think it's aprt of the process of the last two decades which have made - support for a to state solution have declined precisely as (and I'd argue partly because) the political possibility for one also declined.

I think the need will re-open the possibility politically and that will be the basis for building support.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think the growth of Iran's power has taken a lot of this out of Israel's hands. The sad reality is the assassination of Rabin, and the move towards Likud occurred at what may have been the last clean window for Israel to get to some reasonable two state solution.

Now that Iran is so powerful in the region, I don't see any means of a 2SS peace process, Iran will simply have its militias ceaselessly attack Israel and draw it into wars again and again--it won't matter if Israel and some Palestinian entity can try to negotiate if Iranian backed groups keep a state of constant war in place.

[PJL]

If Iran has still managed to grow in power despite the sanctions, then obviously the sanctions aren't working effectively. Or we need even tougher sanctions on them. As for intervention by the US, I can't see that anytime soon, not unless there is a major escalation in the current conflict.

[Sheilbh]

I think the growth of Iran's power has taken a lot of this out of Israel's hands. The sad reality is the assassination of Rabin, and the move towards Likud occurred at what may have been the last clean window for Israel to get to some reasonable two state solution.

Now that Iran is so powerful in the region, I don't see any means of a 2SS peace process, Iran will simply have its militias ceaselessly attack Israel and draw it into wars again and again--it won't matter if Israel and some Palestinian entity can try to negotiate if Iranian backed groups keep a state of constant war in place.

I think that's a fair point, but I think the other side of this is that the growth of Iran's power increases the incentives for other powers in the region to want Israel reconciled and integrated into regional security.

It may be that Iran on their own can spoil things but I think the other new element is Saudi and Gulf concern at Iran's power which may bolster the ability and legitimacy of some Palestinian entity (as I say, not Abbas) that is in a position to engage with Israel. I think that's a new feature and I think at the minute Saudi and the Gulf are the leaders of the Arab world, I think it'll be the first time leaders would have had any interest in that (for example, say, Nasser asbolutely didn't).

[OttoVonBismarck]

If Iran has still managed to grow in power despite the sanctions, then obviously the sanctions aren't working effectively. Or we need even tougher sanctions on them. As for intervention by the US, I can't see that anytime soon, not unless there is a major escalation in the current conflict.

U.S. will definitely not intervene w/direct military action against Iran sans some serious Iranian attack.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

At the end of the day Israel is relatively "safe" from most of its Arab neighbors.

It is not facing invasion from Egypt and Jordan, as it once did. Syria is far too imploded from losing like a third of its population and most of its economy during its Civil War to pose any conventional military threat. Saudi Arabia is a transactionalist power disinterested in something like an Islamic crusade.

Its main enemies now are Iran, and really Iranian proxies.

The good thing is I think there is a nonzero chance America would react to an outright Iranian attack on Israel as something it had to respond to due to its implications in terms of the balance of power in the Middle East, so it is really the Iranian proxies Israel has to contend with.

All this says Israel's real immediate threat is most likely the same problem it has dealt with as its primary trouble since the end of the Arab-Israeli wars, and that is the settlement of the Palestinian problem. There is no way I see that ending without serious compromise by Israel, a major rejection of the Israeli far right and etc. Because the only brute force way to solve the problem is genocide, kill or push all the Palestinians out of the country. But Israel would have to fall into a state of true right wing autocracy and become a pariah state to do that, so that isn't (I hope) going to happen. So we are back to Israel's chief problem is really finding a way for its society to accept that Palestine gets to have a state, including most likely dismantling of at least some West Bank settlements. Dunno how things get there from here.

One of the things necessary for concessions on the right of return to happen is that the UN stops seeing all Palestinians as refugees. I don't think that is the case for any other group of people that they're still all refugees after 80 years.
Once that's the case a symbolic right can be agreed upon for only those people who were alive when it happened.
Potentially the arab states should also agree to return what they stole from the jews they chased out around that time.


edit: another thing that needs to happen is that muslims need to stop teaching their children that unbelievers are evil and need to be eradicated, and the jews are the worst of the unbelievers. And that's something that needs to happen in schools over there and in mosques everywhere, including in the West (which needs to come down on that shit with a very heavy hand). That'll help in the long term to reduce the number of religious fanatics that are produced in the region.

[crazy canuck]

Both sides have been dehumanizing each other for decades. IMO, it hasn't "taken" into as many Israelis as Palestinians (where it seems to have reached near universal consensus).

The attacks on 07Oct2023 are proof of that dehumanization on a shocking scale. The IDF response is also a proof of that. I really wonder what's their "acceptable civilian casualties" prior to approving a strike.

Good points

[crazy canuck]

As I said the only solution for Palestine is to have some other 3rd party provide their security while they disarm the terrorists and allow the Palestinians to form a functioning government.

Otherwise I don't see any practical alternative to just...things continuing basically as they are. And that will never happen, I assume, so things will pretty much continue indefinitely. I would love for some Palestine supporter to come tell me what the better solution is though.

Yeah, it feels increasingly like Israel's best option now is occupying Gaza again.

It's very depressing.

I wish I had the forum from 2006 but I basically said that unless the Palestinians receive tons of help in Gaza they are doomed to eventually come under Israeli occupation again.  It felt like everybody was being set up to fail.

Not that the pre-2005 situation was some sort of success.

But occupation is also unworkable.   Which is why some speculate, that what the Israelis are really up to is removing the Palestinian population.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Only idiots are speculating that.

[Admiral Yi]

What might be interesting is temporary eviction, screen through the civilians to see who can be identified as a fighter/terrorist, then return when Israel has squashed Hamas.

Reminds me of another story I heard on NPR some time back.  Some Hezbollah dude or Hezbollah adjacent dude was saying that their "red line" was the destruction of Hamas.  "We're mad now, but boy we'll be supermad if you do that!"

[crazy canuck]

Only idiots are speculating that.

If you read

Only idiots are speculating that.

You mean like JR who said he is concerned about the approach of some currently in cabinet?

 

[OttoVonBismarck]

Only idiots are speculating that.

If you read

Only idiots are speculating that.

You mean like JR who said he is concerned about the approach of some currently in cabinet?

 

You can go to bed. There are 2.3m people in Gaza Strip, when the war is over there will be around 2.3m people in Gaza Strip.