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#1

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 08:21:13 AM

In part, it's a war of production - and currently Russia(!?) is outpacing Europe.

Not what I heard.
Russia has done a good job in getting some things to high levels of production. Ammunition, drones, and so on.
On the other hand the word is they've got more artillery shells than they're able to fire. Their losses in vehicles and artillery barrels are way above what they're capable of replacing.

Basically Russia has no problem with ammo, but it is running out of guns. Ukraine on the other hand has a good supply of guns, but has been struggling with ammo.

I do think in the long term the odds favour Ukraine. Its supplies are steadier- with on the ammo side Europe on track to ramp up to fill its needs by the end of the year iirc. It also has western money keeping its state functioning.
The concern is short term whether they can hold out or if Russia will break through and/or Ukrainian morale will collapse.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 08:20:44 AM

You're surely well aware Hamas aren't the only group in Palestine. They're not even the legal government.

Hamas and Fatah are still the only political groupings of any significance in Palestine. There's a few Marxist and Maoist parties still left, all of which are pro-terror or militant. The only non-militant political movement was the Fayyad-Ashrawi group, but they are basically defunct.

[This is going to be a long slog.]

#3

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Josephus - Today at 08:18:51 AM

But while the economy has definitely taken bad hits, we are far from a Japan 1945 level collapse. It's clear that Putin has decided to double and triple down and he is not going to deterred by some GDP dips.  This is going to be a long slog.

Exactly. And the only way Ukraine is going to win in a "long slog" war is with a more direct West/NATO involvement--i'm talking boots on the ground or at least planes in the air. So the choice may well be a peace Zelenskyy won't be happy with or a world war.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 08:17:29 AM

In part, it's a war of production - and currently Russia(!?) is outpacing Europe.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 08:13:19 AM

The very fact that Putin's long-term ally, Shoigu, had to be replaced with a communist-era economy-manager guy proves that the Russian economy is NOT doing well, whatever numbers they are cooking up.

The Russian economy wasn't exactly gangbusters even before the war.
But while the economy has definitely taken bad hits, we are far from a Japan 1945 level collapse. It's clear that Putin has decided to double and triple down and he is not going to deterred by some GDP dips.  This is going to be a long slog.

[is]

#6

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Josquius - Today at 08:09:59 AM

Yeah I literally feel like Josq is just "gish-galloping" at this point, he keeps falling back to nonsensical and self-contradictory pro-Pal talking points. I think it is evidence of a position he hasn't really spent a lot of intellectual energy fleshing out--he just knows "the right sort" e.g. leftists, dislike Israel and like Palestine, and he is throwing anything at the dart board he thinks might stick.

On one hand he glibly references "invalidity" or "irregularity" in Israel's formation to somewhat undermine Israel's right to exist (but of course, I doubt he would openly admit he thinks Israel shouldn't exist at all), but then says "well we have to be opposed to all ethnic cleansing", ignoring that a significant component of the pro-Palestinian position is ethnic cleansing. Even the Palestinians who do not believe Israel should be outright destroyed, I suspect a huge majority of them would say that Arabs should be given any land that was ever Arab owned at any point in the past--which would mean millions of Jewish Israelis in Israel proper having to lose their homes, I think even the most progressive Palestinian only envisions a legitimate Jewish state as a small rump around Haifa.

And of course the majoritarian position is exactly what the chants say--one state, Palestine, Arab ruled, Jews either completely expelled or reduced to a very small minority with virtually no civil rights.

Quibbling about whether this is "genocidal" or not is the refuge of idiots and Corbyns of the world.

It is also mostly irrelevant to the current conflict if the Israeli right's strategic decision making of the last 20 years was bad. So what? Israel still has to defend itself in the here and now. It isn't a remotely viable position to say "well, Israel should have done a better job managing the situation, so for some reason I can't really explain that means they need to leave Hamas in control of Gaza and leave..." Like leaving Hamas in power in Gaza and leaving was one of those supposed strategic bad decisions, and we're supposed to expect Israel to double down on that again?

Nice. When the inconsistencies in your positions are caught you just spring into ridiculous "Well you're just a smelly commie so nerr!".
My positions on this matter are consistent and fair. I recognise that history is an evolving process.
You don't like that. You prefer black and white Israel vs. Palestine shouting so you just retreat to your safe space.

The definition of madness is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
This path clearly isn't working. The only two possible routes open seem to be peace or genocide. Tough decision.

This is an incredibly ironic statement given that Israel has twice withdrawn from Gaza and we see the same results each time.  Withdrawing now would be repeating the same thing over again, no?

I don't see where the irony is here. You're being pedantic about saying doing the same thing over and over again when its only been twice before? Third time lucky?

If "the only two possible routes open seem to be peace or genocide" and Hamas absolutely rejects peace, where does that leave us?

A rhetorical question?
You're surely well aware Hamas aren't the only group in Palestine. They're not even the legal government.

[is]

#7

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 08:06:26 AM

Yeah I literally feel like Josq is just "gish-galloping" at this point, he keeps falling back to nonsensical and self-contradictory pro-Pal talking points. I think it is evidence of a position he hasn't really spent a lot of intellectual energy fleshing out--he just knows "the right sort" e.g. leftists, dislike Israel and like Palestine, and he is throwing anything at the dart board he thinks might stick.

On one hand he glibly references "invalidity" or "irregularity" in Israel's formation to somewhat undermine Israel's right to exist (but of course, I doubt he would openly admit he thinks Israel shouldn't exist at all), but then says "well we have to be opposed to all ethnic cleansing", ignoring that a significant component of the pro-Palestinian position is ethnic cleansing. Even the Palestinians who do not believe Israel should be outright destroyed, I suspect a huge majority of them would say that Arabs should be given any land that was ever Arab owned at any point in the past--which would mean millions of Jewish Israelis in Israel proper having to lose their homes, I think even the most progressive Palestinian only envisions a legitimate Jewish state as a small rump around Haifa.

And of course the majoritarian position is exactly what the chants say--one state, Palestine, Arab ruled, Jews either completely expelled or reduced to a very small minority with virtually no civil rights.

Quibbling about whether this is "genocidal" or not is the refuge of idiots and Corbyns of the world.

It is also mostly irrelevant to the current conflict if the Israeli right's strategic decision making of the last 20 years was bad. So what? Israel still has to defend itself in the here and now. It isn't a remotely viable position to say "well, Israel should have done a better job managing the situation, so for some reason I can't really explain that means they need to leave Hamas in control of Gaza and leave..." Like leaving Hamas in power in Gaza and leaving was one of those supposed strategic bad decisions, and we're supposed to expect Israel to double down on that again?

#8

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Gups - Today at 08:03:31 AM

It depends on the individuals though. Managers demanding specific players at over-market pirces without any regard to residual values are super risky to the financial stability of a club.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Gups - Today at 08:00:40 AM

I am sorry but this bruhaha around the election date is ridiculous. It has to happen this year, and it's practically June already. There must be a better system to handle this.

I think it's now at least 50/50 that it will be July 4th, given the higher than expected inflation figures and higher borrowing figures. Both make further pre election tax cuts less likely and that's the only real reason left to further delay the election to the autumn now

I think a mini-budget/fiscal event straight before an election would be so transparent it's not worth thinking about. I'd guess that they would like to see at least one interest rate cut before an election though.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 07:59:52 AM

Not really a surprise that "Stop killing Palestinians" would be a unifying policy position between Palestinian groups of all stripes and the majority of people in the west.

Unfortunately, "keep killing Israelis" also seems to be a unifying policy position between Palestinian groups of all stripes and at least some people in the west.