Israel-Hamas War 2023

[OttoVonBismarck]

Does a typical Hamas rocket even have the sort of power to level such a large building? I'm obviously viewing things from a perspective of extreme skepticism towards anything reported "from" Hamas, but there is some pictures / video coming out showing a large hospital in ruins, and IDF as far as I can tell has not explicitly said what would happen, just that they "can't confirm."

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I saw mention in a Tweet from Sky News that the IDF told them they may have hit a rocket cache, but were still trying to figure out what happened.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Looks like BBC had a phone interview with a Palestinian who was on sight--definitely seems like a hospital was bombed, but there is 0 way anyone knows how many are dead. So Hamas' immediate claims that "500+" dead, could be a wildly inaccurate claim, and given access to information and etc, it will probably seek to intentionally distort any evidence on this question that could be determined.

If Israel intentionally bombed a hospital it needs to be called out, regardless of whether it killed 25 people or 500, but it should be recognized Hamas has every motivation to lie about the specifics--and without reliable investigative teams on the ground the chance we ever know the full truth is minimal.

[Threviel]

It almost seems like Israel is doing an Austria. They need to go in whilst they have the almost complete support of the western world, if they wait to long Hamas and the CCs of the world will create strong opposition.

[OttoVonBismarck]

A "Dr Zaher Kuhail" is on BBC at the hospital. His account is he saw "two planes", which he believed were F-16s dropped two rockets on the hospital. He says that there were 5000 people in the hospital, 600 are already confirmed dead, and the hospital is still burning.

I don't know this guy's background, how accurate he is on anything he is saying, but that is what he is putting out there. I will say he used a number of phrases that would be typical of someone who has a specific side of the conflict he supports (and I would not expect a Palestinian doctor to be neutral--people tend to support their countries in war time); he caused some skepticism in me when he identified the planes as "F-16s." I have no idea how a medical doctor looking up at the night sky could identify F-16s.

The political consequences of this are going to be immense--there are huge riots already broken out in the West Bank with the stated goal of deposing Abbas, PA authorities have had to fire tear gas on crowds to attempt to disperse them. An angry crowd in Jordan apparently tried to storm an Israeli consulate.

[Jacob]

It almost seems like Israel is doing an Austria. They need to go in whilst they have the almost complete support of the western world, if they wait to long Hamas and the CCs of the world will create strong opposition.

Another way to put it is that there's a significant risk for the Western world in giving complete support to Israel at this point, as there's a real risk that Israeli actions could make that support backfire significantly.

I know there are people in the West who'd be fine with massive number of Palestinian civilian casualties for a variety of reasons, but on the whole I think the West has a limit. If Israel goes beyond that limit while fully supported by the West, that could have any number of unfortunate consequences.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Israeli spokesperson on BBC coming out stronger that it was a possible Hamas rocket, he has not said definitively, he said it is still being investigated--but he said "early indications" he was hearing from the "highest level" with the IDF indicated it wasn't their ordinance.

My assumption is due to how many eyes (including cameras) are watching, be it satellite based, aerial observations from IDF etc, there is probably video or some sort of evidence of what happened, I hope that it comes out so we can have some sort of answer.

[mongers]

A "Dr Zaher Kuhail" is on BBC at the hospital. His account is he saw "two planes", which he believed were F-16s dropped two rockets on the hospital. He says that there were 5000 people in the hospital, 600 are already confirmed dead, and the hospital is still burning.

I don't know this guy's background, how accurate he is on anything he is saying, but that is what he is putting out there. I will say he used a number of phrases that would be typical of someone who has a specific side of the conflict he supports (and I would not expect a Palestinian doctor to be neutral--people tend to support their countries in war time); he caused some skepticism in me when he identified the planes as "F-16s." I have no idea how a medical doctor looking up at the night sky could identify F-16s.

The political consequences of this are going to be immense--there are huge riots already broken out in the West Bank with the stated goal of deposing Abbas, PA authorities have had to fire tear gas on crowds to attempt to disperse them. An angry crowd in Jordan apparently tried to storm an Israeli consulate.

I think this is just common shorthand for military jet amongst Palestinians; just heard one describe the tempo of Israeli air strikes along the lines of 'the constant buzz of the surveillance drones, then every 5 minutes a small strike by missile/suicide drone on a particularly apartment or floor and 5-6 times an hour the F16s strike with rockets (his word) and bring down whole buildings'

I've heard other Palestinians talk of F16s over recent weeks, not heard one ever refer to other types of aircraft. I'd also guess the talk might have been influenced by the extensive debates this year about providing Ukraine with F16s.

[OttoVonBismarck]

IDF appears to be affirmatively claiming it was not them--I hope they have proof and they share it, because few people will afford them the benefit of the doubt:

The Israel Defense Forces says that based on "intelligence information, a failed Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) rocket caused the deadly blast at the Gaza hospital."

In a statement, the IDF says that "from an analysis of the IDF's operational systems, an enemy rocket barrage was carried out towards Israel, which passed in the vicinity of the hospital, when it was hit."

"According to intelligence information, from several sources we have, the PIJ organization is responsible for the failed [rocket] fire that hit the hospital," the IDF adds.

[Razgovory]

A "Dr Zaher Kuhail" is on BBC at the hospital. His account is he saw "two planes", which he believed were F-16s dropped two rockets on the hospital. He says that there were 5000 people in the hospital, 600 are already confirmed dead, and the hospital is still burning.

I don't know this guy's background, how accurate he is on anything he is saying, but that is what he is putting out there. I will say he used a number of phrases that would be typical of someone who has a specific side of the conflict he supports (and I would not expect a Palestinian doctor to be neutral--people tend to support their countries in war time); he caused some skepticism in me when he identified the planes as "F-16s." I have no idea how a medical doctor looking up at the night sky could identify F-16s.

The political consequences of this are going to be immense--there are huge riots already broken out in the West Bank with the stated goal of deposing Abbas, PA authorities have had to fire tear gas on crowds to attempt to disperse them. An angry crowd in Jordan apparently tried to storm an Israeli consulate.

I think this is just common shorthand for military jet amongst Palestinians; just heard one describe the tempo of Israeli air strikes along the lines of 'the constant buzz of the surveillance drones, then every 5 minutes a small strike by missile/suicide drone on a particularly apartment or floor and 5-6 times an hour the F16s strike with rockets (his word) and bring down whole buildings'

I've heard other Palestinians talk of F16s over recent weeks, not heard one ever refer to other types of aircraft. I'd also guess the talk might have been influenced by the extensive debates this year about providing Ukraine with F16s.

Then he's not reporting what he saw, but rather what he heard about from others.

[Threviel]

I know there are people in the West who'd be fine with massive number of Palestinian civilian casualties for a variety of reasons, but on the whole I think the West has a limit. If Israel goes beyond that limit while fully supported by the West, that could have any number of unfortunate consequences.

We have also seen that there are large numbers in the west far more than fine with Israeli casualties. There's far more partying in the streets when Hamas kills Israelis than the other way around.

Of course you are right, if western audiences are fed with pictures of dead Palestinians for weeks the mood is going to change and the regular Israel-hate is going to go back up again. Perhaps rightfully so, fighting against Hamas is very supportable, bombing Gaza back to the stone age less so.

[Gups]

I don't trust Bibi to prioritise anything (hostages, getting the murderers, international opinion) over himself and those keeping him in power.

[viper37]

They just have a pathological hate of everyone elses.

Not true, I love you all.

[Jacob]

We have also seen that there are large numbers in the west far more than fine with Israeli casualties. There's far more partying in the streets when Hamas kills Israelis than the other way around.

Certainly.

That's another interesting dynamic. Hamas sympathizers celebrating the killing of Israelis - especially Israeli civillians - seems to be driving anti-Muslim sentiment and thus increasing support for Israel.

Of course you are right, if western audiences are fed with pictures of dead Palestinians for weeks the mood is going to change and the regular Israel-hate is going to go back up again. Perhaps rightfully so, fighting against Hamas is very supportable, bombing Gaza back to the stone age less so.

Yes. That's part of the calculus that Israel has to make. They have the forces to inflict a lot of damage on Hamas. It's unclear to me what sort of practical / tactical constraints they have on operations, but presumably there are some. Still, Israel has the initiative.

What is Israel going to do? How do they value the gains they make in their attack on Hamas, and what price are they willing to pay - for their own troops and in terms of risk to Palestinian civilians? And how much weight do they give to the PR battles being waged in the West and the Arab world?

Hamas, for their part, seem to be as aggressive and intransigent as they can given the circumstances.

[viper37]

Hamas received 40% of the votes in the 2006 elections, which was a plurality, not a majority.  Seventy-five percent of their own voters supported the idea that Hamas should drop its opposition to the existence of Israel, and the main reasons they cited in voting for Hamas was the expected reduction in corruption.  The election was not an endorsement of Hamas terrorism or the aims of Hamas.

on the other hand: you don't vote for a piece of a (terror-)party's program, but for all of it.

Sinn Féin was elected democratically in Ireland, yet it was associated with the IRA for a while.  Its policy was similar to that of the IRA.  Yet, I'm not convinced a majority of its voters voted for terrorism.

But Sheilb would know more about the subject.