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#1

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 08:45:21 PM

Biden v Trump debates reportedly planned on Jun 27 and Sep 10.

And the rules the Biden team insisted on seem to be aimed at neutering Trump's interruptive/off-the-cuff style...e.g. turning off the opposing microphone when it is not their turn...but I am sure nothing will stop Trump from shouting/haranguing without said microphone.

#2

Gaming HQ / Re: STELLARIS: New Paradox Gam...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 08:27:59 PM

For sure...I guess my thoughts on doomstacks are:

- If the idea of anti-doomstack is to have forces spread out more naturally along a border/frontier.
- Hyperlanes limits this potential of course, by creating natural chokepoints...even if the ease up other aspects of a 4x space sim.  (and of course, Stellaris wasn't isolated to hyperlanes when it first came out...they forced the change I think to simplify other features)
- Because overwhelming concentration of force is always nice, you need a system where the disadvantages of concentrating the force scale appropriately (e.g. while the doomstack might roam about KO'ing each systems/defensesin turn, several smaller opposing forces could dance around it and pick off the doomstack's rear lines...forcing a doomstack to disperse to counter). 

#3

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 07:31:19 PM

Looks like the BC right "Reform" playbook may finish up in time for the next election. The BC Conservatives and the BC United are in talks to merge.

If so, it looks like the effect is simply going to be a harder right faction taking over the the BC Liberals, Reform style. Apparently one of the front runners for leadership is a suburban mayor who is leading with "the left is more interested in pronouns than paycheques." Which, you know, isn't really true in BC but I guess it's the zeitgeist.

#4

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 07:13:35 PM

Isn't one of the big issues with modern polling that it is conducted via landlines only which tends to skew toward older and rural folks with those demographics being much redder than the voting population as a whole?

No.

There are faults with polling, but they have not relied on landlines only for years and years.

Proof: I am somehow on a list of people that answers pollsters, so I get calls pretty regularly.  A few years ago we were the Canadian equivalent of Nielson family that tracked our TV viewership.

Anyways - the fact I am regularly called by pollsters, as a middle-aged, middle-class cis-hetero white guy, might reflect a certain bias.

But they only ever call my cell phone.

I'm on a list too, I signed up for it. I've never had a land line of my own.

I'm also a middle-aged middle-class cis-hetero white guy and yet our politics are nothing alike.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Football (Soccer) Thread

Last post by Jacob - Today at 06:50:47 PM

The Danish league end play is pretty intense, with four clubs in close contention.

Brøndby IF (currently #1, 30 matches, 59 points) just beat FC Nordsjælland (currently #4, 30 matches, 56 points).

Tomorrow FC København are playing FC Midtjylland (currently #2 and #3, 29 matches, 58 points). A win will put either team in the #1 position, a tie will see three clubs at 59 points with 30 matches played.

There are 32 matches in total. Given the schedule, any of the top four clubs have paths to victory; and the determination could potentially be made on the last day.

Exciting times

#6

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 06:33:35 PM

There definitely seems to be a concerted social media effort to depict it as a battle between "two grandpas" with little difference between the two of them.

#7

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 06:07:14 PM

I'm not in the US and Purley looking from far away.... But I get vibes that there's a fair bit of lethargy about the election?

Tinfoil hat on but I do wonder if this is republican tactics. As well as energising the shit bags to get out and vote getting everyone else thinking both candidates are crap and there's no point.

#8

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 05:02:26 PM

Thanks!

Less dire than I feared, it seems, but still not great.

#9

Off the Record / Re: 2024 US Presidential Elect...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 05:00:15 PM

So Minsky, how big is the risk of blatant and significant voter fraud in your view?

Voter fraud is really rare. I don't think there is much risk there. Voter suppression is a much bigger concern, especially in states controlled by GOP legislatures and governors. Cutting down polling places in Democrat leaning areas, eliminating or reducing absentee ballots, disqualifying voters on bogus pretexts. The other unknown is to what extent there will be effort to intimidate election workers in swing states. There were various efforts in 2020 but not well organized. A more concerted effort could cause real problems, especially if aided and abetted by sympathetic local or state law enforcement.

Also, while the electoral count act reduces the options for nonsense in the Congressional count, it still leaves open a a key vulnerability - the certificate of ascertainment which is issued by the governor of each state.  The risk is that a rogue governor simply crosses out the vote in his state and signs a bogus certificate. Looking at the swing states, Democratic governors are in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Brian Kemp is a Republican in Georgia but was not sympathetic to Trump's election stealing efforts in 2020. Joe Lomabrdo was elected governor in Nevada; don't know much about him. He was endorsed by Trump in his election, but hasn't had enthusiastic things to say about his presidential run.  I don't see him trying to overturn an election result by transmitting a bogus certificate of ascertainment.  So I am cautiously optimistic on this front, but it is a little scary that we have to count heads this way and that so much depends on the personality of individual state governors.

#10

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 03:43:18 PM

https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/europa/algemeen/slovaakse-premier-fico-in-kritieke-toestand-na-politieke-aanslag/10546583.html

In dutch but I'm sure it'll be all over:

Slovak PM Fico has survived what might be an attempt at (non-professional) assassination.