2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Tonitrus]

Yep, Trump is toast.  Pretty safe to say his gaffes have caught up with him and people will stop voting for him now that it's time to get serious.

Except that the only "get serious" option is still a brokered convention(circus).

[Phillip V]

I am certainly concerned. Even if Hillary pulls it out it would be a Pyrrhic victory. Sander's supporters now hate her with a passion, they might stay home if she wins.

Nah.  More hate than Obama supporters vs Clinton supporters in 2008?

[CountDeMoney]

Meh, I'm calling Wisconsin an aberration for Trump;  their Republicans are much more mild-mannered than the ones that voted for him in fruitcake states like Florida--and quite frankly, you just don't roll into town and bash both the successful conservative governor and the popular Speaker of the House.  That's too much, even for them.

Trump shit the bed in Wisconsin, but I believe he will right the ship in New York, Connecticut and Pennsylvania even more.

[derspiess]

Yep, Trump is toast.  Pretty safe to say his gaffes have caught up with him and people will stop voting for him now that it's time to get serious.

Never realized saying something anti-Choice could cost you the Republican nomination.

I was being sarcastic

[Habbaku]

Trump now needs 55% of the delegates to clinch a pre-Convention win.    #NeverTrump #Legbiterisacuck

[jimmy olsen]

I believe this is the 7th state that Cruz has gotten the majority of the delegates. Just one more for the eight the rules require. And unlike Trump, he has the organizational strength to prevent a rules change. That means the only two options at the convention will be Trump and Cruz. No Kasich or a dark horse being parachuted in.

[alfred russel]

I believe this is the 7th state that Cruz has gotten the majority of the delegates. Just one more for the eight the rules require. And unlike Trump, he has the organizational strength to prevent a rules change. That means the only two options at the convention will be Trump and Cruz. No Kasich or a dark horse being parachuted in.

Tim, that is stupid.

The relevant factor is whether Cruz has the organizational strength/delegate support to get the support of a majority of delegates. If he can do that, he will win (and I think he will).

If he can not, he will lose. The delegates are responsible for the rules--and the rule you reference is a temporary rule from the last convention. If the majority of delegates want someone other than Cruz or Trump, and it goes past the first ballot, Cruz and Trump will be powerless to keep Kasich or Romney or Ryan or anyone else from being parachuted in if a majority of delegates wants to support the person in question. They can change the rule to allow anyone to be introduced, and even add a new rule to exclude candidates born in Canada or with the initials DT should they so choose.

[Jaron]

Valmy --

I'm not going to worry until the end of this month.

I THINK -- unless something changes -- Hillary will win some states like PA, MD or NY. I think a couple even moderate wins can cancel out some of the erosion into her lead.

I think we'll be okay.

[Habbaku]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/275304-trump-cruz-worse-than-a-puppet

  Crybaby Trump time.

Donald Trump accused Ted Cruz of being a puppet of GOP bosses in a statement released after the Texas senator crushed him in Wisconsin's primary on Tuesday.

"Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet — he is a Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump," the Trump campaign said in a statement given to Washington Post reporter Robert Costa.

Trump did not congratulate Cruz on his win in Wisconsin, something customary on primary nights. He also did not appear in public, a departure for the GOP front-runner who has usually held press events the nights of primaries and caucuses.
Neither Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski nor spokeswoman Hope Hicks would return calls, emails, or messages on Tuesday night. Nor would they provide the statement tweeted by Costa.

And Trump's own Twitter feed was uncharacteristically quiet more than an hour after Cruz's victory was projected.

The Trump campaign portrayed Cruz's win — expected to be by more than 10 points — as illegitimate and unfair. He also accused Cruz of illegally coordinating with supportive super-PACs, but he did not provide any evidence to support the charge.

"Lyin' Ted Cruz had the Governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him," the Trump campaign statement read.

"Not only was he propelled by the anti-Trump Super PAC's [sic] spending countless millions of dollars on false advertising against Mr. Trump, but he [Cruz] was coordinating with his own Super PAC's [sic] (which is illegal) who totally control him."

The Trump campaign said at the end of its statement released to Costa that it maintained "total confidence that Mr. Trump will go on to win in New York, where he holds a substantial lead in all the polls, and beyond."

The statement from Cruz reflected a GOP race that has grown nastier than ever.

Even when Trump lost the Iowa caucuses to Cruz on Feb. 1 he gave what many observers described as a gracious concession speech, saying, "I want to congratulate Ted and I want to congratulate all of the incredible candidates."

But on Tuesday night after losing Wisconsin, Trump declined to give even a hint of a congratulatory message to Cruz.

[Eddie Teach]

#Legbiterisacuck

[Martinus]

I find it funny that people are acting as if Cruz has won the nomination. The end game is still the same - either Trump wins outright or a brokered convention, with Trump having the plurality of delegates.

[Eddie Teach]

I find it funny that people are acting as if Cruz has won the nomination.

Who is doing that?

[Martinus]

I find it funny that people are acting as if Cruz has won the nomination.

Who is doing that?

Funkmonk has called this the end of Trump and derspiess did too (but he later claimed he was being sarcastic).

[Eddie Teach]

That's not the same thing.

Brokered convention very likely means neither of them.

[Martinus]

That's not the same thing.

Brokered convention very likely means neither of them.

I see people saying that but I can't imagine the establishment doing that without the base going total bonkers.

I mean, I just checked and there are apparently Senate and Congress elections this autumn as well. If the brokered convention steals the nomination from both Trump and Cruz, wouldn't their supporters be pissed off enough to elect some New Tea Party types and send the establishment candidates packing?