2016 elections - because it's never too early

[CountDeMoney]

WTF is the FBI doing. The shit show just keep going up.

Citizen K said it was nothing...

The FBI may be pencilnecked stuffed shirts full of themselves but they're still cops, and cops fucking hate Clinton.

[DGuller]

My only conciliation is that I doubt he'll actually do anything. He just wants to be president to be president.

This reasoning doesn't work for me.  Even if you're right about Trump, there are still plenty of people in US politics that will do massive damage if you don't actively prevent them from doing it.  Even in the best case scenario Trump won't be standing in the way of dozens of Brownbacks from taking control of the various levers of federal government and implementing their own insane social engineering experiments.

[Monoriu]

The only good thing about a Donald Trump presidency is to make voters understand that their lives won't improve even if they vote for an anti-establishment guy.  A lot of people will always say "how do you know for sure if you don't give him a chance?" Sometimes it takes going through the painful process once to convince people that their idea just doesn't work.  How do you convince people that communism doesn't work?  By pointing to the Soviet Union.  Kinda hard to do that if there is no Soviet Union in the first place.

[Zoupa]

Trump is not going to win, people. Calm your tits. Just look at the map. She's cruising to 290-300.

I'm gonna lose my 20$ to Yi 

[Liep]

I'm gonna lose my 20$ to Yi 

I wouldn't bet on it.

[DGuller]

The only good thing about a Donald Trump presidency is to make voters understand that their lives won't improve even if they vote for an anti-establishment guy.  A lot of people will always say "how do you know for sure if you don't give him a chance?" Sometimes it takes going through the painful process once to convince people that their idea just doesn't work.  How do you convince people that communism doesn't work?  By pointing to the Soviet Union.  Kinda hard to do that if there is no Soviet Union in the first place.

I don't think such feedback loop works in US politics these days.  Election winners rarely get sufficient mandate to properly discredit their policies.  And even when they do get it and succeed at that beyond their wildest dreams, like Sam Brownback in Kansas, they often still get reelected.  And that is because voters, by and large, just don't properly attribute results to the policies that bring them about.  They can't even agree on the same set of facts, never mind interpretation of them.

[jimmy olsen]

Man, I hope this is legit.

https://twitter.com/_TargetSmart/status/793635698553200642?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

1.TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart 10m10 minutes ago
2.New @_TargetSmart/@williamandmary FL poll: HRC 48 - DJT 40 Early voters from FL SoS: 55 - 38 Likely voters, haven't voted yet: 42 - 43

1.
TargetSmart‏@_TargetSmart 8m8 minutes ago

.@williamandmary Press release and methodology here: https://t.co/cJdJyNXmqa

TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Florida Poll of Early and Likely Voters

-Clinton Buoyed by Early Vote-


Hillary Clinton's strength with the early vote in Florida is propelling her to a lead in the key

battleground state, according to a new poll released today by TargetSmart and William & Mary. In the poll, Clinton holds a 48 to 40 percent lead over Donald Trump in the Sunshine State, a more advantageous position for Clinton than most other publicly available polling has suggested in the last week or so.  As of the morning of November 1st, 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida.




Leveraging TargetSmart's proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated. Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent. Reflective of the trends that have been published in other public polls in recent days, the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll shows the contest in Florida is very competitive among those who have yet to cast their ballot. Among those non-early voters (who were asked which candidate they will vote for), Clinton attracts 42 percent of the vote and 43 percent back Donald Trump. The poll also shows the U.S. Senate race tilting decidedly in Marco Rubio's direction as Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy trails Rubio 43 to 49 percent. Unlike Clinton, Murphy only breaks even with early voters, having garnered 48 percent of the voteamong them to Rubio's 47 percent. And, among non-early voters, Rubio holds a solid lead with 51 percent of the vote to Murphy's 39 percent.




Poll Methodology

The TargetSmart/William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. As weighted, 530 online interviews were conducted from October 25-28, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file.  As weighted, 188 telephone interviews were conducted from October 27-30, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file. The survey reached 311 respondents who voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee, by mail, or in-person, according to data from the Florida Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file.




These early vote data were weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, party registration and media market of the overall population of early voters in Florida who had participated as of October 31. The survey reached 407 respondents who had NOT voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee, by mail, or in-person, according to data from the Florida Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file.




These non-early vote data were weighted using a two-step process to yield a likely voter model. First, the non-early vote sample was weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, party registration and media market of the overall population of all registered voters in Florida who had NOT participated as of October 31. Then, to derive a likely voter model, a second round of weighting was employed on the non-early vote sample only, in which weights were assigned to each respondent in proportion to their TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout score, with higher weights being assigned to respondents with a higher likelihood to vote, and lower weights being assigned to respondents with a lower likelihood to vote.




The TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout model is an ensemble method classifier model that was created to predict the likelihood that an individual will vote in the 2016 general election. In this second round of weighting all early voter respondents were assigned a weight of 1, to reflect the fact that they have already voted. No margins of sampling error are calculated for this survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not due to its partial reliance on online interviews

[CountDeMoney]

Louisiana's Klan and their "Get Out the Vote" campaign, complete with obligatory misspelling (lulz, Poles) and white Life Saver.

[mongers]

Can 'we' ban the Taint for a week?

[Phillip V]

Here is the current electoral map if Trump wins all states that he is leading or within just 1% (according to RCP average of polls):

[Ed Anger]

Klan too cheap to give out even fun sized Life Savers. Sad!

[derspiess]

Was a little surprised that everyone in the UK I spoke with seemed to dislike Hillary as much as Trump.

[Valmy]

Was a little surprised that everyone in the UK I spoke with seemed to dislike Hillary as much as Trump.

Well they don't care about the USFL over there.

[Eddie Teach]

Do they care over here? 

[Valmy]

Do they care over here? 

We might have had it not been brutally murdered