2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Capetan Mihali]

Leverage at the convention is diddly-fuck.

Why?  Does he have more leverage if he drops out now?

[Admiral Yi]

He has leverage when he can move voters.  Do you think he can move more voters now or after Hillary has clinched the nomination?

[Capetan Mihali]

He has leverage when he can move voters.  Do you think he can move more voters now or after Hillary has clinched the nomination?

Move more voters to Hillary now, you mean?  No, I don't think so; Sanders voters need some concessions and he needs to have some kind of public reconciliation with Hillary's candidacy -- the convention doesn't seem like a bad place for it.  Right now the blood's too hot; do you think a moment when 30-40% of Sanders voters in some states would pick Trump over Clinton is the time when he can move voters to HRC's camp?

[garbon]

Ah noting Clinton as a lesser of two evils is just part of his plan to soothe his voters?

[garbon]

"Uncertainty" is too strongly worded for you?  Maybe Martinus is right about you Rodham Clinton fanatics...

Well I doubt that she did anything illegal and I don't think as the months pass that we are more likely to see a bombshell uncovered.

[garbon]

By the by what is the point of this Sanders fight for the platform strategy? Is it just a tactic to throw the Democrats into disarray when they have qualms in front of the nation over his desired bits? Since when has the platform mattered after a general election?

[Capetan Mihali]

I don't know, the candidate who lost badly to Obama in the primaries somehow ended up his Secretary of State, so stranger things have happened.

[Capetan Mihali]

"Uncertainty" is too strongly worded for you?  Maybe Martinus is right about you Rodham Clinton fanatics...

Well I doubt that she did anything illegal and I don't think as the months pass that we are more likely to see a bombshell uncovered.

I think it's... "uncertain," to quote myself.  I don't think it's likely, but I don't really know.  Some of the headlines today put her emails front and center...might have just been USA Today but still: there *is* a certainty that the issue is on (a non-trivial amount of) people's minds.

[Capetan Mihali]

Ah noting Clinton as a lesser of two evils is just part of his plan to soothe his voters?

I think he will eventually produce a public statement urging his supporters to fight Trump/Republicans and vote for Clinton...but not until he gets something in return; even if he didn't personally care about it, he needs it to pull his supporters towards a Clinton vote in the general election.  And I think it's fair to say he has earned that something, given the way this primary season has gone, with his margins of victory and number of states.  Clinton needs the Sanders supporters, and I'm convinced Sanders will throw his support behind Clinton ultimately. 

But I think his supporters want him to fight to the bitter end, regardless, and as I mentioned, the level of Sanders' voters disaffection with Clinton -- to the point of favoring Trump in large numbers -- is probably cresting right now, so I don't think he could credibly just drop out and say "Yep, I like Clinton just as she is, you all go ahead and vote for her, really, it's consistent with my message."  Now after the end of the primaries and some concessions to his issues, I think he can make a pro-Hillary speech with a lot more credibility.

Honestly, if Sanders quietly drops out right now, I think Clinton is in far worse shape than if he keeps campaigning to the end.  If he just out and says "There's no way I can win, so I'm done," the Sanders people are not coming out on Election Day to vote for Clinton.  Even if he halfheartedly endorses her.  They'll feel disgust with the system and skip the election, vote Trump, or vote third-party.  I think if he fights to the end his supporters will take satisfaction in that and Clinton's eventual nomination won't taste as bitter.  And I just don't see what's in it for Sanders to stop now.  Why should he?

[garbon]

"Uncertainty" is too strongly worded for you?  Maybe Martinus is right about you Rodham Clinton fanatics...

Well I doubt that she did anything illegal and I don't think as the months pass that we are more likely to see a bombshell uncovered.

I think it's... "uncertain," to quote myself.  I don't think it's likely, but I don't really know.  Some of the headlines today put her emails front and center...might have just been USA Today but still: there *is* a certainty that the issue is on (a non-trivial amount of) people's minds.

We have seen many headlines about them since last summer.

[garbon]

Ah noting Clinton as a lesser of two evils is just part of his plan to soothe his voters?

I think he will eventually produce a public statement urging his supporters to fight Trump/Republicans and vote for Clinton...but not until he gets something in return; even if he didn't personally care about it, he needs it to pull his supporters towards a Clinton vote in the general election.  And I think it's fair to say he has earned that something, given the way this primary season has gone, with his margins of victory and number of states.  Clinton needs the Sanders supporters, and I'm convinced Sanders will throw his support behind Clinton ultimately. 

But I think his supporters want him to fight to the bitter end, regardless, and as I mentioned, the level of Sanders' voters disaffection with Clinton -- to the point of favoring Trump in large numbers -- is probably cresting right now, so I don't think he could credibly just drop out and say "Yep, I like Clinton just as she is, you all go ahead and vote for her, really, it's consistent with my message."  Now after the end of the primaries and some concessions to his issues, I think he can make a pro-Hillary speech with a lot more credibility.

Honestly, if Sanders quietly drops out right now, I think Clinton is in far worse shape than if he keeps campaigning to the end.  If he just out and says "There's no way I can win, so I'm done," the Sanders people are not coming out on Election Day to vote for Clinton.  Even if he halfheartedly endorses her.  They'll feel disgust with the system and skip the election, vote Trump, or vote third-party.  I think if he fights to the end his supporters will take satisfaction in that and Clinton's eventual nomination won't taste as bitter.  And I just don't see what's in it for Sanders to stop now.  Why should he?

Well thus my question about what he gains from party platform fight? I don't really see him gaining much either way. Also surely there is a way to continue the good fight without referring to your rival as an evil.

[sbr]

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/05/27/trump-attacks-federal-judge-in-trump-u-case/

Trump Attacks Federal Judge in Trump U Case
The presumptive GOP nominee devotes 12 minutes of a 58-minute address to the suit

SAN DIEGO–In one of his most personal attacks against an apolitical figure since becoming the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump delivered an extended tirade about the federal judge overseeing the civil litigation against his defunct education program.

Mr. Trump's attack on U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel was extraordinary not just in its scope and intensity but for its location: Before a crowd packed into a convention center here that had been primed for the New York billionaire with a warm-up speech from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

"I have a judge who is a hater of Donald Trump, a hater. He's a hater. His name is Gonzalo Curiel," Mr. Trump said, as the crowd of several thousand booed. "He is not doing the right thing. And I figure, what the hell? Why not talk about it for two minutes?"

Mr. Trump spoke for far more than two minutes about Judge Curiel and the Trump University case–he devoted 12 minutes of a 58-minute address to the litigation, which is scheduled to go to trial in San Diego federal court Nov. 28. Mr. Trump's attorney said earlier this month that Mr. Trump would testify in the six-year-old case.

The plaintiffs in the Trump University case, whom Mr. Trump also condemned by name Friday, accuse him and the now-defunct school of defrauding people who paid up to $35,000 for real estate advice. Mr. Trump said Friday that Trump University received "mostly unbelievable reviews" from its 10,000 students.

To the San Diego crowd, Mr. Trump argued that Judge Curiel should be removed from the case because he is biased against him. The evidence Mr. Trump presented: Rulings against him and the fact that Judge Curial was appointed to the bench by President Barack Obama. The Senate confirmed Judge Curiel by a voice vote in September 2012.

An aide in Judge Curiel's chambers on Friday said the judicial code of conduct prevents him from responding to Mr. Trump.

"We're in front of a very hostile judge," Mr. Trump said. "The judge was appointed by Barack Obama, federal judge. Frankly, he should recuse himself because he's given us ruling after ruling after ruling, negative, negative, negative."

Mr. Trump also told the audience, which had previously chanted the Republican standard-bearer's signature "build that wall" mantra in reference to Mr. Trump's proposed wall along the Mexican border, that Judge Curiel is "Mexican."

"What happens is the judge, who happens to be, we believe, Mexican, which is great. I think that's fine," Mr. Trump said.

Judge Curiel was born in Indiana.

Mr. Trump told the crowd he looks forward to returning to San Diego for the trial in November and asked for an investigation into Judge Curiel for reasons he did not specify.

"I think Judge Curiel should be ashamed of himself," Mr. Trump said. "I'm telling you, this court system, judges in this court system, federal court, they ought to look into Judge Curiel. Because what Judge Curiel is doing is a total disgrace, OK? But we'll come back in November. Wouldn't that be wild if I'm president and I come back to do a civil case? Where everybody likes it. OK. This is called life, folks."

[garbon]

Poor Trump.

[Capetan Mihali]

Negative rulings as grounds for a recusal... Damn I wish I'd thought of drafting some motions along those lines.  Also, I practiced a lot in front of a Jewish judge.  And I think that's great.  But it was probably grounds for recusal, at least in Vermont.  Missed opportunities.

[Capetan Mihali]

Well thus my question about what he gains from party platform fight? I don't really see him gaining much either way. Also surely there is a way to continue the good fight without referring to your rival as an evil.

So essentially you're saying Bernie has nothing to gain by dropping out now, nothing to gain by continuing to campaign, nothing to gain by negotiating concessions either now or at the convention. 

Somehow the argument that he should be a good little loser and take his ball -- and all of his voters -- home doesn't seem very appetizing from a Sanders perspective, nor do I think it would do Clinton any good to have him pack up and go home saying "Well, she beat me " before there's at least a fighting chance that she'll get a sizable majority of Sanders supporters to vote for her.