NEETs and the future of the West

[Martinus]

According to the recently published Eurostat data, between 20% and 25% of all Poles aged 25-30 are NEETs (neither employed, in education or training). The trend is similar across Europe and it does not seem to be a temporary phenomenon. What do you think will be the outcome of this?

[Neil]

1.  Poland isnt part of the West.

2.  The answer is the downfall of civilization.  When a culture creates such a gap between expectation and opportunity, nothing good can come of it.

[Tamas]

I have no high hopes for Europe that's for sure. I think the most optimistic scenario is the EU becoming like Japan - stagnating, balancing on the edge of serious trouble.

Only North America seem to have the political unity and economic backbone to keep growing, IF they don't screw up.

[The Brain]

There's a lot of mooches for sure.

[Josquius]

As I've said before I really worry for the future.
We've reached a stage with industry where our ability to supply has drastically outstripped demand, completely the opposite of the natural way of things. What's worse is the amount of people needed to produce this potentially massive supply is a fraction of what was needed in the past, and it is dropping all the time. Annnd ever more countries are capable of meeting this global demand. Further messing things up.
The future will be a pretty grim place with mass unemployment being the norm and countries squabbling over the ever declining potential number of jobs. And there's no sensible way out of it that I can think of.

[jimmy olsen]

As I've said before I really worry for the future.
We've reached a stage with industry where our ability to supply has drastically outstripped demand, completely the opposite of the natural way of things. What's worse is the amount of people needed to produce this potentially massive supply is a fraction of what was needed in the past, and it is dropping all the time. Annnd ever more countries are capable of meeting this global demand. Further messing things up.
The future will be a pretty grim place with mass unemployment being the norm and countries squabbling over the ever declining potential number of jobs. And there's no sensible way out of it that I can think of.

It'll be just like Judge Dredd with 90% unemployment and the proles committing crime just because they're so bored with their meaningless lives. 

[mongers]

As I've said before I really worry for the future.
We've reached a stage with industry where our ability to supply has drastically outstripped demand, completely the opposite of the natural way of things. What's worse is the amount of people needed to produce this potentially massive supply is a fraction of what was needed in the past, and it is dropping all the time. Annnd ever more countries are capable of meeting this global demand. Further messing things up.
The future will be a pretty grim place with mass unemployment being the norm and countries squabbling over the ever declining potential number of jobs. And there's no sensible way out of it that I can think of.

It'll be just like Judge Dredd with 90% unemployment and the proles committing crime just because they're so bored with their meaningless lives.

Have you considered a job as a futurologist, you could work for some oxymoronic 'think-tank' and once a year go annoy the people of Davos ? 

[Neil]

That's what the service industry is for.

[Syt]

I think one of the issues is the change in the job market in the last decades. 20, 30, 40 years ago, if you had little education, you could still find jobs - manual labor, sure, but a job nonetheless. Help on construction sites, do assembly line stuff, etc. These days almost everything requires education and certificates.

[Tamas]

Occassionally I get as gloomy as Tyr but less and less so.

You see, that's the line of thinking the real luddites, and probably a lot of other people had during the industrial revolution. Were they right? No.

[Josquius]

That's what the service industry is for.

The service industry fills in a lot of the gaps but it can't cover everyone. I just can't see a place for the majority of the world's population in shuffling paper and passing around invisible money. The current economic mess put an end to the thinking that this could be feasible.

Occassionally I get as gloomy as Tyr but less and less so.

You see, that's the line of thinking the real luddites, and probably a lot of other people had during the industrial revolution. Were they right? No.

They were. It just took a longer time than they predicted.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I agree with Syt. The only basic job that is booming in the UK at the moment is driving a van to deliver products bought online.

But I do not see why there will be any systemic shortage of jobs. Manufacturing will go the same way as agriculture did in the past and end up employing a tiny percentage of the population, many of whom will be highly-educated engineering and IT experts. So it is very foolish to expect the manufacturing sector to sort the unemployment problems out in a rich country.

However, we have the services sector. This will boom due to an ageing society that will devote far more of its resources to medical care, social care and education. So quite a lot of our current problem is what my old economics school textbook called structural unemployment. We have a mass of people who are still waiting to be given relatively simple jobs in a factory or steelworks, in general that is not going to happen, instead they need to get used to the idea that they need to get marketable skills or they will end up cleaning geriatric bottoms.

[Martinus]

Yeah, I think service industry is going to grow.

For example, there is a lady who comes every two weeks to clean my flat and iron my shirts; I go to another on a bi-weekly basis for therapy; and see my personal trainer twice a week. Right now, there is a group of men doing shit with my new flat (the interior decor of which was earlier desgined by another person).

When my parents were at my age, they would not pay most of these people.

[Brazen]

What do you think will be the outcome of this?

Combined with the rising costs of rent and near-impossibility of securing a first-time buyer's mortgage, it will mean people live with their parents until their 30s.

I'm more concerned about the other end of the scale. I already work in a young person's field and yet I'm somehow expected to stay in employment until I can finally draw a pension at 70.

The skilled service industry such as plumbing and electrical was a growing sector, but now this is all done by immigrant Poles so I'm amazed there's anyone left to supply Mart's material needs.

[Martinus]

Actually, the level of service from the service industry has risen enormously here. The guys I hired (they did the flats of two of my coworkers earlier) do not come cheap but they seem very hard working and when I paid them a surprise visit on Thursday evening they all seemed sober. :p