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The Grand Election Thread

Started by Tamas, November 06, 2012, 08:06:18 AM

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DGuller

Here is a small piece of meat for the Silver haters.  He made another set of predictions, much less publicized, about the Senate elections.  There, he didn't get a perfect score.  He didn't get it right for two of the races.  In Nebraska, his odds were close enough, but in North Dakota, he gave the loser a 92% probability of victory. 

Again, that's perfectly explainable;  if the events to which you assign non-zero probabilities never happen, then you're actually a pretty shitty handicapper.  However, I'm surprised that there hasn't been a single Silver nayser that grasped at this straw.  I did this analysis entirely on my own (shut up, Meri).

Sheilbh

Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 07, 2012, 02:02:45 AM
Hell of a speech
Best he gave for the entire campaign.  Which is a mark of how weak Romney was.
Let's bomb Russia!

Sheilbh

Incidentally this is striking:
QuoteA glance at the exit polls showed that Obama won the foreign policy question pretty handily.  Only five percent of respondents thought that foreign policy was the most critical issue in this campaign -- but of those five percent, voters went for Obama over Romney by 56% to 33%.  Voters were also more likely to trust Barack Obama in an international crisis (57%-42%) than Mitt Romney (50%-46%).  This is the first exit poll in at least three decades where the Democrat has outperformed the Republican on foreign policy and national security. 
If that holds I think that could be as important as the demographics (and in both cases Romney exacerbated this issue - not mentioning foreign policy once in his acceptance speech and the whole 'self-deportation' nonsense).  If the long-term impact of Bush is that the Republicans are no longer the party of national security and the economy then that could be a big challenge for them.
Let's bomb Russia!

mongers

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2012, 07:27:00 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on November 07, 2012, 02:02:45 AM
Hell of a speech
Best he gave for the entire campaign.  Which is a mark of how weak Romney was.

Obama's acceptance speech ?

Worth catching on the iplayer ?
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

CountDeMoney

Considering how gray Obama's hair has gotten since 2008, after the next 4 years he's going to look like Morgan Freeman by the time he leaves.

Sheilbh

Apparently after his speech last night Obama tried to call Boehner and McConnell.  He was told they were both asleep :lol:
Let's bomb Russia!

Ed Anger

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2012, 10:47:25 PM
Apparently after his speech last night Obama tried to call Boehner and McConnell.  He was told they were both asleep :lol:

I know I was.
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

DGuller

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2012, 10:47:25 PM
Apparently after his speech last night Obama tried to call Boehner and McConnell.  He was told they were both asleep :lol:
Should've called right before his speech.

garbon

Quote from: Ed Anger on November 07, 2012, 10:52:17 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2012, 10:47:25 PM
Apparently after his speech last night Obama tried to call Boehner and McConnell.  He was told they were both asleep :lol:

I know I was.

:yes:
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

katmai

Quote from: Ed Anger on November 07, 2012, 10:52:17 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2012, 10:47:25 PM
Apparently after his speech last night Obama tried to call Boehner and McConnell.  He was told they were both asleep :lol:

I know I was.
crying yourself to sleep don't count 1%
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son

CountDeMoney


Ed Anger

Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2012, 11:04:54 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on November 07, 2012, 10:52:17 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2012, 10:47:25 PM
Apparently after his speech last night Obama tried to call Boehner and McConnell.  He was told they were both asleep :lol:

I know I was.
crying yourself to sleep don't count 1%

I slept on my king sized bed stuffed with hundreds. I slept well.
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Ed Anger

Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 07, 2012, 11:06:25 PM
Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2012, 11:04:54 PM
crying yourself to sleep don't count 1%

FROSTED STRUDEL BURN

Don't try the chocolate frosted strawberry. Looks like shit covered strudel. Tastes worse.
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

garbon

Quote from: katmai on November 07, 2012, 11:04:54 PM
Quote from: Ed Anger on November 07, 2012, 10:52:17 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 07, 2012, 10:47:25 PM
Apparently after his speech last night Obama tried to call Boehner and McConnell.  He was told they were both asleep :lol:

I know I was.
crying yourself to sleep don't count 1%

My mother went to bed earlier as she was like - I'll have nightmares if I learn Obama wins before bed.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

CountDeMoney

Quote from: Ed Anger on November 07, 2012, 11:09:41 PM
I slept on my king sized bed stuffed with hundreds. I slept well.

Hundreds of what?  Strudels?