The Grand Election Thread

[CountDeMoney]

I just hope my new Mormon robe fits me as well as Albert Brooks' in Defending Your Life.  That would be nice.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I find it odd. A lot of Obama supporters I know on the internet seem to think Romney is going to win, basically every Romney supporter I know on the internet or in real life thinks Romney is going to win. It seems like only me, some die hard Obama supporters, and the statistics nerds think Obama will win comfortably.

[jimmy olsen]

Exit polls favor Obama, but they always favor the Dems, so I don't know

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/06/exit_polls.html

[Razgovory]

I find it odd. A lot of Obama supporters I know on the internet seem to think Romney is going to win, basically every Romney supporter I know on the internet or in real life thinks Romney is going to win. It seems like only me, some die hard Obama supporters, and the statistics nerds think Obama will win comfortably.

American Leftists are notoriously neurotic.  Knowledge brings uncertainty, and ignorance brings confidence.

[jimmy olsen]

Oh noes! Romney landslide!

https://news.google.com/news/section?pz=1&cf=all&topic=el&ict=rhc

[Barrister]

I find it odd. A lot of Obama supporters I know on the internet seem to think Romney is going to win, basically every Romney supporter I know on the internet or in real life thinks Romney is going to win. It seems like only me, some die hard Obama supporters, and the statistics nerds think Obama will win comfortably.

I'm having trouble imagining how this is anything but an Obama win.  The numbers may be tight, but it'll never be in doubt.

[celedhring]

Oh noes! Romney landslide!

https://news.google.com/news/section?pz=1&cf=all&topic=el&ict=rhc

It currently displays 43 votes counted in NH. That's cute.

[DGuller]

I find it odd. A lot of Obama supporters I know on the internet seem to think Romney is going to win, basically every Romney supporter I know on the internet or in real life thinks Romney is going to win. It seems like only me, some die hard Obama supporters, and the statistics nerds think Obama will win comfortably.

I'm having trouble imagining how this is anything but an Obama win.  The numbers may be tight, but it'll never be in doubt.

Same here, but I'm consciously choosing not to think about voter fraud, or tactics that essentially amount to that in spirit.  I think that's the biggest known unknown of this election.

[Eddie Teach]

Exit polls favor Obama, but they always favor the Dems, so I don't know

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/06/exit_polls.html

Deserves own thread. 

[Neil]

The amazing thing is that it got this tight at all.  Obama certainly got outcampaigned in the last month or so.  I mean, Romney was a decent candidate and all, but every time a Republican candidate for Congress opened his mouth on abortion, or how slavery was a good thing, or how all good American supported the Bund, it cost him votes.  That first debate is Nixon/Kennedy-esque.

[Liep]

Oh dear, they're back to using a good ol' whiteboard here. Screw your 3D election coverage.

[FunkMonk]

Alex Wagner

[CountDeMoney]

Alex Wagner

I would soooooooo punch that chad.

[crazy canuck]

The thing that would shock me is if Mittens won.  Has there ever been a candidate that no one really liked who won the Presidency.

In Canada we had the phenomenon occur once (Joe Clarke) but that is the only time I can recall it happening.

There is some parallel with George H.W. Bush, he wasn't really the most likable guy. Too stiff and patrician. I really liked him though, probably the last Republican other than 2000 McCain where I could basically unabashedly support him.

But that is my point.  H.W.  appealed to at least part of his base.  I get the sense that most if not all Republicans are holding their noses voting for Mittens.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I find it odd. A lot of Obama supporters I know on the internet seem to think Romney is going to win, basically every Romney supporter I know on the internet or in real life thinks Romney is going to win. It seems like only me, some die hard Obama supporters, and the statistics nerds think Obama will win comfortably.

I'm having trouble imagining how this is anything but an Obama win.  The numbers may be tight, but it'll never be in doubt.

Right, it's going to be a Truman-Dewey style result in that I think Obama convincingly wins the EC but by thin margins in a few States.

Now, what I've also said is I will be surprised if every State Nate Silver says is likely to go for Obama actually goes for Obama, the election is just a lot closer this year than it was in 2008 and some of those aggregated polls will prove to be off the mark. But a lot of them, more than is reasonable to suspect, will have to be off for Romney to win the whole shebang.

That's why I'm expecting a surprise here or there tonight on a state-by-state level, but generally expect Obama to win.