The China Thread

[Jacob]

More purges?

[Tonitrus]

Top Chinese general 'leaked nuclear secrets to US'

A top Chinese general ousted by Xi Jinping for a "serious violation of discipline" was accused of leaking nuclear secrets to the US, according to reports.

Gen Zhang Youxia, the operational leader of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), is facing allegations of handing Chinese nuclear weapons data to Washington, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The 75-year-old was dismissed on Saturday. During a closed-door briefing with top military officers, Gen Zhang was also accused of accepting a bribe to promote a senior officer to defence minister and forming "political cliques".

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/top-chinese-general-leaked-nuclear-203443057.html

The nuclear part was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, but their article is paywalled.

Purge of top Chinese general throws military into turmoil, raises questions about Taiwan

"This is a reminder coming directly from President Xi Jinping, that political loyalty stands well before combat readiness," one analyst told NBC News.

...

The Chinese Defense Ministry said in a statement Saturday that Gen. Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission which controls the armed forces, was under investigation and accused of serious "violations of discipline and law."

Liu Zhenli, another People's Liberation Army general and a lower member of the commission who was in charge of the Joint Staff Department, was also put under investigation, the ministry said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/china/china-xi-jinping-general-zhang-corruption-purge-taiwan-invasion-rcna255911

[Tonitrus]

Some of the commentary I've seen is along the lines of "OMG PLA readiness", but others have speculated this a move that makes a attack on Taiwan more likely,  not less.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I get that impression from the NY Times article on the subject.  It seems this move is about Xi taking full, direct control of the PLA and getting rid of someone who might actually push back against saber-rattling.  Taiwan would be the obvious target, but China has been getting increasingly aggressive about the entire Nine Dash Line.

[Sheilbh]

And on preparedness I think the question is the extent to which the operational bit of the PLA is distinct from the political/party leadership?

For example lots of Chinese state institutions are very impressive, effective, responsive technocracies (and they have to be because the political wind can change very quickly) in spite of party and political issues in that part of the "institution". Not sure to what extenct that applies to the operational part of the PLA.

[The Minsky Moment]

Seems like this guy was a real soldier who went up through the ranks.  You never know re corruption allegations but the claim he spied for the USA seems hard to believe.  Very Stalinesque vibes here.

[Tonitrus]

My feeling with "corruption" allegations in places like China is that the basis of the charges are things that everyone does all of the time, including the accusers...it is just that the accused find themselves on the underside of the power curve at a time it becomes convenient to bring them up.

[Jacob]

A few thoughts on this:

CCP internal politics (and business for that matter) is all about networks of mutual trust and clientage. It's only when those networks are not aligned with the main leader that they get called "cliques".

My understanding on PLA organization and preparedness is that the corruption is endemic and often fundamental to how the system works. It probably won't really be shaken out until the PLA has to act for real, at which point we'll find out if the slack and extra capacity built into the system is enough to overcome the friction that corruption causes (as well as all the other friction from other sources, of course).

[Tonitrus]

My fear is that a PRC move on Taiwan won't really be as much of a struggle/fight as we think it will (coming off the Ukraine experience).

The big unknowns in a hypothetical assault on Taiwan are (in my view):
- Will the US get involved.
- Will Taiwan be capable/willing to resist in any great degree.

Starting in reverse:  Ukraine had ~8 years of low-level warfare against Russia/proxies to get used to the idea of having to engage in a real fight...and the capacity/outside help to sustain it.  And a big factor I think is the easy access of outside help, by land through Europe.  Taiwan won't have that...they'll have to fight with only what they have on hand. A PLAN blockade will close any assistance right away, regardless of how well their invasion force does.

I also almost wonder if a mass/improvised PRC paradrop into the middle of Taipei might end things within day or two...though the Battle of Hostomel might have put paid to any idea of a quick decapitation move by the PRC as a strategy).

On the "Will the US intervene" question...I see the PRC having two strategic options:

- "The US will certainly intervene.", so blast every US asset/base in the region right from the onset.  think (hope?) this would stir enough of a Pearl Harbor memory that we'd definitely fight it out...and Japan would inevitably be involved as well.  Then it'd be a messy naval/aerial slugfest for all sides (and hard to say how things on the ground in Taiwan would unfold).

- "The US might/might not intervene?", ignore the US military assets, focus everything on attacking/blockading Taiwan, while throwing up enough international political chaff "Taiwan is a part of China...everyone, including the US recognizes that...it is an internal matter" such that international response becomes mostly paralyzed while they do their thing.  I suspect just about every other nation , outside of maybe the US would accept that, or be too gun-shy to act in any significant degree.  And if the US dithers/doesn't act, then well....job done...we'll all cheer on the brave Taiwanese while they fight to their inevitable doom.  After which we can remove any sanctions we might have been brave enough to throw up during the conflict and get back to business as usual.