The China Thread

[Razgovory]

The slight quibble I would have is that I do think ideology matters with China (I do actually think they're communists for example)

Statists 100%.
But communists?
Fascist is closer to what they've become.

They've taken a hard turn left since Xi came to power.

[Josquius]

I disagree I think the ideology has developed and will continue to develop.

But I think it is fundamentally communist - especially the idea of a party state maintaining control while the economy develops. It's - to nick a phrase I quite like - possibly just a long NEP - it may even last a century or two.

Capitalists are allowed to do what they want in most of the economy but the core bits are retained by the state, political power is not shared with anyone (especially not capitalists who are the most dangerous social class) and the state can and will crackdown when it thinks there is a political or social need to do so.

This setup isn't particularly communist. As I say they're far more fascist than anything. Private business does what it wants but it must do what the state tells it to do.
The key distinguishing factor with the way China is going is the embracing of rabid ethno-nationalism. The old communist 55 ethnicities thing is very much falling by the wayside beneath a very definite there is only one valid type of Chinese doctrine.

The slight quibble I would have is that I do think ideology matters with China (I do actually think they're communists for example)

Statists 100%.
But communists?
Fascist is closer to what they've become.

They've taken a hard turn left since Xi came to power.

Eh?
Under Xi they've gone sharply right.

[Eddie Teach]

This is why left/right isn't a useful descriptor for international politics.

[Admiral Yi]

Suppression of/conflict with internal ethnic minorities is not something totally alien to rock solid communist regimes.

[Razgovory]

Tyr, you sound like you are moving into "no true leftist" territory.

[Jacob]

I was thinking of it in those terms at the time, not retroactively.  The issues with intellectual property were always there even before China's turn towards open belligerence.  In a modern economy, doing business with someone who won't respect your intellectual property and can't be compelled to is like having a gun store sell an arsenal to a gang of robbers.  It may be a very lucrative transaction initially, but it may wind up backfiring on you rather quickly.

There's a whole lot of business with China that does not particularly involve intellectual property.

[Jacob]

Things that are happening:

Xi is attempting to encourage the Chinese people to have more kids; the official ideal number is 3, now. Unfortunately for Xi, him setting that target has not resulted in increased birth rates - the costs of raising kids and giving them the best chance they can have is prohibitive. Getting your kid into a good school (relative to your wealth and social class) is crucial and incredibly competitive.

So... to solve this, Xi has just made cram-schools illegal. That should take some pressure off, is apparently the thought, and people won't have to spend money on it. Of course, the result is that cram school instruction now happens one-on-one (to prevent snitching), making it even more expensive for some (whose kids then get more advantages) while others have to resign themselves to knowing their kids have less of a chance to get into the good schools and have a good life.

It still remains to be seen if this will have any positive impacts on birth rates in China.

In another educational development, apparently in Shanghai they've taken English language skills off the entrance exams for the good junior high and high schools, replacing it with exams on "Xi thought."

Also, covid is spreading again in China and they're using the same super harsh control measures (which, among other things lead to starvation deaths) while cracking down on any reporting of what is happening.

This may all seem like much of a muchness to folks viewing China as monolithic stereotype, but from my POV it's looking a bit like China is heading towards a Xi lead Cultural revolution v 2.0 soon.

[Eddie Teach]

Business as usual. Nothing to see here. /mono

[The Minsky Moment]

I think Tyr has a point.  It's hard to see the PRC as communist more than in name,  The NEP is not a good comparison - that was a more about a tactical withdrawal from attempts to exert power over the countryside, freeing up small scale trading, and ceding power back to labor union organizations in the cities; that has not been the policy in China which has moved in the other direction.  Instead we have a nationalist one party dictatorship with an modernizing agenda and a corporatist, state capitalist economic model.  If it's not fascist it certainly seems to rhyme.

[Sheilbh]

This may all seem like much of a muchness to folks viewing China as monolithic stereotype, but from my POV it's looking a bit like China is heading towards a Xi lead Cultural revolution v 2.0 soon.

Interesting FT story that the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the CCP's anti-corruption watchdog, is leading a crack down on the drinking culture. In part because of social media outrage about sexual harassment and assault in the workplace.

Separately the culture ministry is planning to ban songs from karaoke that spread "harmful information" including inspiring into drugs, gambling or religion - or songs that were deemed dangerous to Chinese sovereignty.

It is interesting as with the crackdown on private tuition and tech companies there are a couple of things that are striking. One is that there seems to be a bit of a "working towards Xi" element going on where bureaucracies like those above are starting to take measures before required by central bureaucracy.

But also - which I think is interesting in what I was saying before, but also in the context of Xi's promises on net zero - it's clear growth is no longer the priority. And in CCP history of China, my understanding is they've now completed all of Deng's agenda (reform and opening; building a moerately prosperous society) - so are moving onto Xi's which are, I believe, "realisation of socialist modernisation" by 2035 and "national rejuvenation" by 2050 (which is - perhaps relatedly? - also the point the PLAN aims to have global coverage).

But Deng's era has been formally closed and it feels like a real transition in the way the state is not prioritising growth or business friendliness as they once were.

[Jacob]

Yeah. Xi also talked trash about Tencent, causing their stockprices to take a beating. It looks like he's been going after a number of national champion type companies.

[Josquius]

Suppression of/conflict with internal ethnic minorities is not something totally alien to rock solid communist regimes.

Sure.
But making it a central policy pillar and being obsessed with the greatness and purity (cultural rather than ethnic in the Chinese case) of your one people?

[Tamas]

It's kind of fascinating that most of these "strong man" types like Xi appear to be deeply disturbed people ridden with insecurities. Don't get me wrong, they are obviously extremely cunning and dangerous, but sick in the head, none the less.

[Razgovory]

Suppression of/conflict with internal ethnic minorities is not something totally alien to rock solid communist regimes.

Sure.
But making it a central policy pillar and being obsessed with the greatness and purity (cultural rather than ethnic in the Chinese case) of your one people?

We called it "The Soviet Union" back in the day.

[Josquius]

Suppression of/conflict with internal ethnic minorities is not something totally alien to rock solid communist regimes.

Sure.
But making it a central policy pillar and being obsessed with the greatness and purity (cultural rather than ethnic in the Chinese case) of your one people?

We called it "The Soviet Union" back in the day.

They didn't do this.
At all.