The China Thread

[Sheilbh]

Yeah and I think China has been even worse than Hong Kong (which had a huge spike in deaths with Omicron) at getting vaccines to the elderly. Vaccination levels are important but in the recent waves the key is how much you've vaccinated the vulnerable.

Although as you say it depends on effectiveness of their vaccines. From what I remember one was very good when used in other countries and one not so much.

I can't see an easy way out - I think New Zealand and Australia have probably faced similar challenges. I'm not sure how they've managed it.

[Jacob]

The WHO have said China's zero covid policy is unsustainable -it's FT so paywalled but screenshot of section from journalist:


I wonder how much that is the source of elite dissatisfaction with Xi because it is clearly unsustainable, it's causing a lot of economic and social problems. It might help with isolation which is possibly why it's still so attractive to Xi but it feels impossible and counter-productive at this point.

But I've no idea how you get out of it once you're zero covid and the rest of the world is endemic.

Hilariously, Chinese media is apparently reporting it exactly the opposite "the WHO is saying China's covid zero method is the best way forward!"

[Sheilbh]

Really helpful but slightly concerning thread from FT data reporter on China, vaccines and zero covid:
https://twitter.com/imandylin2/status/1524046064437043200?s=20&t=2TDRA-s0hVm51_YcEdHziw

Basically there isn't much of a vaccination drive, in fact vaccination numbers - especially among the elderly - are slack. In part this is because of the emphasis on zero covid and the pre-emptive lockdowns. Vaccination just doesn't seem to be the focus - it's not zero covid to buy time for vaccinations. For example the statement form the Politburo on covid strategy (chaired by Xi) which is 1,900 words long and was published on the front page of papers spent 10 words on vaccination. The rest was around testing, quarantine and movement control.

I suspect there's something of a political fight going on over zero covid in China where it's assumed a meaning beyond just a covid response policy?

[The Minsky Moment]

PRC screwed themselves on vaccines by opting for a "national" solution that turned out be second tier and using their propaganda machines to bad mouth the Western mRNA vaccines, as a result of a good chunk of the population doesn't trust any COVID vaccine. 

In hindsight the Party should have used its coercive machinery a year or so ago to force mass vaccination using the Western model vaccines.  Sadly, all the brutal authoritarianism and propaganda in the world can't turn back time.

[Syt]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hong-kong-police-arrest-catholic-cardinal-alleged-collusion-with-foreign-forces-2022-05-11/

Hong Kong police bail Catholic cardinal arrested on national security charge

HONG KONG, May 11 (Reuters) - Cardinal Joseph Zen, one of the most senior Catholic clerics in Asia, and three others who helped run a now-disbanded Hong Kong fund for protesters were arrested on charges of "collusion with foreign forces," and later released on bail.

Zen, a 90-year-old former bishop of Hong Kong, was questioned for several hours on Wednesday at the Chai Wan Police Station close to his church residence, before being released on police bail. The silver-haired Zen, wearing a white clerical collar, left without making any comment to the media.

Local police said in a statement that the national security department of the police force had arrested two men and two women, ranging from 45 to 90 years old for "collusion with foreign forces" on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Police said they were suspected of asking for foreign sanctions. All were released on bail with their passports confiscated under the national security law, police said.

A legal source familiar with the matter had earlier told Reuters that five people had been arrested in connection with the case: Zen; senior barrister Margaret Ng, 74; activist and pop singer Denise Ho; former lawmaker Cyd Ho; and former academic Hui Po-keung.

Zen has long been an advocate of democratic causes in Hong Kong and mainland China, and has spoken out against China's growing authoritarianism under President Xi Jinping, including a Beijing-imposed national security law, and the persecution of some Roman Catholics in China.

Hui had been arrested at the airport on Tuesday night, according to media reports, while Cyd Ho was already in prison over a separate case.

The five were trustees of the "612 Humanitarian Relief Fund" which helped protesters who had been arrested during pro-democracy, anti-China protests in 2019 to help pay their legal and medical fees.

VATICAN CONCERNED

Hong Kong has long been one of the most important Catholic beachheads in Asia, home to an extensive network of aid agencies, scholars and missions that have supported Catholics in mainland China and elsewhere.

Beijing imposed the sweeping national security law in June 2020 that punishes terrorism, collusion with foreign forces, subversion and secession with possible life imprisonment.

The Vatican said on Wednesday it had learned of the arrest of Zen in Hong Kong "with concern" and was following developments "with extreme attention".

Reuters was not able to immediately reach the others for comment. The Hong Kong Catholic Diocese gave no immediate comment.

The "612 Humanitarian Relief Fund" was scrapped last year after the disbandment of a company that had helped receive donations through a bank account.

The arrests come after police said last September that they had begun investigating the fund for alleged violations of the national security law.

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre called on China and Hong Kong authorities to cease targeting Hong Kong advocates and to immediately release those "unjustly detained and charged," including Zen.

"All I can tell you is that I think we're increasingly troubled by steps in Hong Kong to pressure and eliminate civil society," U.S. Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell told a separate event in Washington when asked about the arrests.

Hui, an associate cultural studies professor at Lingnan University, had once taught exiled democracy activist Nathan Law.

"If you want to punish someone, you can always find an excuse," Law wrote on his Facebook page in response to Hui's arrest.

Critics, including the United States, say the security law erodes the freedoms promised by China under a "one country, two systems" arrangement when Hong Kong was returned from British to Chinese rule in 1997.

Hong Kong authorities, however, say the law has brought stability to the city after the 2019 mass demonstrations.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Really helpful but slightly concerning thread from FT data reporter on China, vaccines and zero covid:
https://twitter.com/imandylin2/status/1524046064437043200?s=20&t=2TDRA-s0hVm51_YcEdHziw

Basically there isn't much of a vaccination drive, in fact vaccination numbers - especially among the elderly - are slack. In part this is because of the emphasis on zero covid and the pre-emptive lockdowns. Vaccination just doesn't seem to be the focus - it's not zero covid to buy time for vaccinations. For example the statement form the Politburo on covid strategy (chaired by Xi) which is 1,900 words long and was published on the front page of papers spent 10 words on vaccination. The rest was around testing, quarantine and movement control.

I suspect there's something of a political fight going on over zero covid in China where it's assumed a meaning beyond just a covid response policy?

Seems to me that the current policy is Xi's and since Xi can't be wrong then the current policy will be maintained at all costs.

[Eddie Teach]

Seems an effective autocrat needs some gaslighting ability so he can change course when something isn't working.

[CountDeMoney]

In hindsight the Party should have used its coercive machinery a year or so ago to force mass vaccination using the Western model vaccines.

You realize that, in the Xi world, there was absolutely zero chance of this ever happening.

[DGuller]

Can't he say that the Chinese vaccines themselves and the propaganda against Western vaccines was a plot by the corrupt Chinese vaccine developers?  Sure, you'll have to shoot a dozen of them or two, but surely that's more palatable than the economically damaging strategy with no endgame?

[Jacob]

China under Xi seems to be massively into the our-propaganda-spin-is-mightier-than-reality way of coping. It doesn't bode well for their future.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

China under Xi seems to be massively into the our-propaganda-spin-is-mightier-than-reality way of coping. It doesn't bode well for their future.

If it means China eliminates itself as a threat, ideally without war, I'm sure we can only encourage them

[Jacob]

If it means China eliminates itself as a threat, ideally without war, I'm sure we can only encourage them

Yeah I suppose, though it also increases the odds of a miscalculation leading to war, Putin style.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

If it means China eliminates itself as a threat, ideally without war, I'm sure we can only encourage them

Yeah I suppose, though it also increases the odds of a miscalculation leading to war, Putin style.

true, but that goes too if china becomes stronger

[HVC]

Xi has a brain aneurism, at least according to the Dailymail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10816327/Chinas-leader-Xi-Jinping-suffering-brain-aneurysm-snub-new-medicine-reports-claim.html

[Jacob]

My wife brought it up as well, but I'm going to wait until I hear it from somewhere other than the Daily Mail.