The China Thread

[crazy canuck]

I meant that the rule of law is a joke. It's not even thinly veiled.

Were there people under the impression China ever cared about the Rule of Law?

[Jacob]

Were there people under the impression China ever cared about the Rule of Law?

Yes. There's been a distinct degradation regarding the rule of law in China in the last decade or so. At one point, moving towards genuine rule of law and building institutions to enshrine it was considered a real possibility inside China. That got dialed back to some sort of "let's conduct ourselves as if we value to rule of law, with only key exemptions as necessary". Then the list of "key exemptions" has grown and at this point it's pretty clear that there is not much left.

But yeah, at one point it looked like it might have gone differently. At least that's what I thought, and what I saw reported from inside China.

[crazy canuck]

Were there people under the impression China ever cared about the Rule of Law?

Yes. There's been a distinct degradation regarding the rule of law in China in the last decade or so. At one point, moving towards genuine rule of law and building institutions to enshrine it was considered a real possibility inside China. That got dialed back to some sort of "let's conduct ourselves as if we value to rule of law, with only key exemptions as necessary". Then the list of "key exemptions" has grown and at this point it's pretty clear that there is much left.

But yeah, at one point it looked like it might have gone differently. At least that's what I thought, and what I saw reported from inside China.

I recall a time when China wanted to give some comfort to people investing there that their investments would be relatively safe and free of overt government interference.  But I don't recall a period of time in which that actually occurred.  There were always special "rules" and open corruption.  And always the threat that if someone in the party did not like you, you should probably get as much of your investment out of the country asap.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think you've both put your finger on it. The concept of rule of law made some progress in China, but only in instrumental terms, and not out of principle, so it has no staying power. The ugly intellectual heritage of Legalism is always lurking about in Chinese history and it seems to have found secure footing in the mind of Xi.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The energy crisis is hitting China quite badly :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/how-bad-is-chinas-energy-crisis

Not helped by Xi's trade war with Australia of course.

[Jacob]

Yeah, my wife was telling me last week how most of China has scheduled rolling electricity shutdowns. According to what she and her parents are hearing, it's not just in the North East but more widespread.

[Jacob]

There's also the bit that apparently now you require three doctors to sign off on non-medically-necessary abortions in an effort to slow down the population decline.

[DGuller]

What are they signing off on? "In my expert opinion, she really does want to get an abortion"?

[Josquius]

This woman has paid enough to get an abortion.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, my wife was telling me last week how most of China has scheduled rolling electricity shutdowns. According to what she and her parents are hearing, it's not just in the North East but more widespread.

At least 20 provinces (pretty big/important ones) have announced shutdowns so far:


And it's probably a sign of where things are that Global Times is publishing this:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235145.shtml

Given the trade war with Australia which isn't great for a big coal importer, and with the new Siberian gas pipe China's apparently turning more to Moscow to increase its oil and gas supply - so not just Europe becoming increasingly dependent on/tied to Russia but also China.

But in terms of gas prices especially it looks like we're moving back to the 2000s pre-shale sort of levels.

Seems to me there is a risk (especially with the discombobulation of vaccine/endemic countries and zero covid countries) that we end up with rolling supply and demand crises for a while

Edit: And it's an obvious point but if China has an electricity problem, then the world will shortly have a manufacturing/supply problem.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

There's also the bit that apparently now you require three doctors to sign off on non-medically-necessary abortions in an effort to slow down the population decline.

just claim to be a Uyghur, you'll get your abortion.

that said: how long before all chinese women are forced to have 3 children? End of the decade? Or will it be a bit longer?

[Barrister]

The energy crisis is hitting China quite badly :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/29/how-bad-is-chinas-energy-crisis

Not helped by Xi's trade war with Australia of course.

It's shocking how Xi's attempts to re-assert central control over the economy is leading to a series of bad policy outcomes...

[DGuller]

Is Mandate of Heaven still a thing in Chinese culture?  I imagine looking up at starry nights will make some people think about heaven.

[The Minsky Moment]

It's shocking how Xi's attempts to re-assert central control over the economy is leading to a series of bad policy outcomes...

Yes this appears to be an Econ 101 fail

Energy companies are, in effect, rationing electricity to industrial and domestic users under orders from president Xi Xinping's officials to not pass on the higher costs from rising prices of imported coal.

[Jacob]

just claim to be a Uyghur, you'll get your abortion.

I think the downside of being registered as belonging to a minority subject to official suspicion makes it not worth it in most cases.

that said: how long before all chinese women are forced to have 3 children? End of the decade? Or will it be a bit longer?

I don't think they'll be able to get away with that. Heavy incentives and pressure, for sure, but not explicitly forced. Too many complications and factors in play. But "have children for the glory of the nation" campaigns? And incentives for multiple children and censure for few or none? That's probably coming sooner than in a decade.