25 years old and deep in debt

[MadImmortalMan]

I know I'm an overly optimistic person, and I really do err on that side sometimes, but this world is a piece of complete shit if one in four or one in three women get raped in their lifetimes. That's just ass.

There you have it.

You're breaking my naive little heart, beeb.   

[Jacob]

'm not going to accept the premise that any random woman is batter able to analyze her gender's issues than I am.

Neither Meri nor Brazen are random women.

[MadImmortalMan]

I was in this situation two years ago. She was naked and oral sex had occurred. But she was about the whole "need a boyfriend/girlfriend label" before vaginal sex, but not forcefully protesting. So I pulled back, but I was sober. If I was younger (stupid) and had been drinking...
And she probably would have convinced herself to keep fucking me in later liaisons to legitimize it. I hate the way this shit works.

You should just avoid women entirely. 

[Jacob]

Well, either she is right on this point or the survey is. They can't both be right, as the survey only has the rate at 25%.

Hence the difficulty of evaluating statistics by means of anecdote (same of course goes for those dismissing the results out-of-hand as excessively high).

I am less concerned about the exact percentage, and more concerned by the fact that indicators point to the number be so high that MiM would find them unrealistic; that it's a lot more than many people suppose.

[Malthus]

And the number of convictions is not terribly helpful in determine the prevalence of a crime.  Most crimes of all sorts go undetected.  Never mind an offence like sexual assault where our conviction rate is notoriously terrible.

Agreed - but we shouldn't replace conviction rate with anecdote.

Here's a PDF of a Canadian article on the statistics. It indicates around 1.9 incidents per 100 people per year of "sexual assault" (a term which includes both "sexual attack" and "unwanted sexual touching"). Thus, assuming each incident involved a different person ((I am assuming that each "incident" is an individual reporting they were assaulted that year), the maximum rate would be about  2% per year. However, the rate of the more serious "sexual attack" is much lower - about 0.4 per 100 (using the same assumption, 0.4%/person/year). 

www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85f0033m/85f0033m2008019-eng.pdf

Here's some highlights:

According to the 2004 GSS, there were about 512,000 incidents of sexual assault, representing a rate of 1,977 incidents per 100,000 population aged 15 and older. Given that most sexual assaults go unreported, police-reported sexual assault counts are notably lower, with about 24,200 sexual offences recorded by police in 2007.

Victimization data suggest that the rates of sexual assault remained stable in recent years. However, police-reported data reveal a steady decline in offences coming to the attention of law enforcement for more than a decade.

The majority of sexual offences in Canada are of a less severe nature. Victimization data indicate that most sexual assaults involved unwanted sexual touching (81%) rather than more severe sexual attacks (19%). Among the incidents that came to the attention of police in 2007, the large majority (86%) were level 1, the least serious form of sexual assault.

When asked why they did not tell the police about the sexual assault, a majority of victims (58%) said that they did not report the incident because it was not important enough.

Some definitions:

Sexual assault: A term used to refer to all incidents of unwanted sexual activity, including
sexual attacks and sexual touching.

General Social Survey (GSS)

To assess whether the respondent had been a victim of a sexual attack, the GSS asked
respondents aged 15 years and older if anyone had forced or attempted to force them into any
unwanted sexual activity by threatening them, holding them down or hurting them within the 12
months preceding the survey. To assess the prevalence of unwanted sexual touching,
respondents were asked if anyone had ever touched them in a sexual way against their will,
including acts of grabbing, kissing or fondling, using the following questions:

Sexual attack: During the past 12 months, has anyone forced you or attempted to force you into
any unwanted sexual activity, by threatening you, holding you down or hurting you in some
way?

Unwanted sexual touching: During the past 12 months, has anyone ever touched you against
your will in any sexual way? By this I mean anything from unwanted touching or grabbing, to
kissing or fondling.

[Malthus]

There is no doubt that sexual violence is a serious problem. However, there is also no doubt that the statistics used to demonstrate this are not very reliable.

The problem is that the definition is pretty elastic. If you include "unwanted sexual advances" you would, honestly, get a very high, and perhaps universal, number - I've had those myself, from both men and women, and I'm hardly the main target. OTOH there is considerable underreporting for the reasons you note.

To say this is not to "dismiss and ridicule" the problem or the victims of it. I disagree that the numbers are of no significance. The reason for generating the numbers in the first place is so as to rank the significance of the problem vs. other problems. This leads advocates of all sorts into a sort of spiral of escalation - how many have been sexually assaulted, how many have been a victim of racial or sexual discrimination, how many have been bullied, etc. Given that resources to do something about these various problems are limited, saying that they are all of the first importance as demonstrated by statistics showing a high incidence of incidents is functionally the same as saying that none of them are.

That being noted, there is no doubt that for cultural reasons this was an issue fundamentally underplayed and swept under the carpet in the past.

What do you mean by 'limited resources'?

I don't think anyone in this thread - nor in the general public discussion of the issue, such as it is - has called for, say, increased prosecution of unwanted sexual advances; so I'm not sure which resources you're talking about.

I agree with you that definitions seem pretty elastic some times and that, combined with the sensitive nature of the subject, can complicate the discussion.

If we're speaking of 'unwanted sexual advances' my assumption is that it's physical, but falls short of rape.

I don't think we're taking resources away from dealing with rape if we draw attention to the fact that unwanted sexual advances happen with disturbing frequency, that many women experience them and that this is terrible. I don't think we're taking resources away from dealing with rape if we, as individuals, make it clear that unwanted sexual advances are unacceptable and we exact a social price from the people who make them in our social circle. And I don't think we're taking resources away from dealing with rape if making unwanted sexual advances in the work place or other professional situations has significant impact on someone's career; yes, that leaves people potentially vulnerable to false accusations but the way to deal with that is to make sure you're never in a situation where that would be credible. We're already seeing that - professors leaving their office doors open when they're speaking with students, managers refraining from trying to sleep with the hot secretary even though she may be interested etc.

So yeah... I think we can have the conversations, we can raise some awareness, we can shift some social behaviour and all of that can (and is, I think) improve things.

You are not I think getting my point. I'm arguing why actual, unbiased statistics are important for framing public policy ... and why advocates quite naturally tend to inflate them.

Say we have public policy issues A, B and C. If you advocate for issue A, you would quite naturally want the public to believe that issue A is a more serious problem than B or C, so as to get what you consider the necessary level of public support behind the effort to eradicate problem A.

Thing is, those advocating for issues B and C are doing the same ...   

[Neil]

'm not going to accept the premise that any random woman is batter able to analyze her gender's issues than I am.

Neither Meri nor Brazen are random women.

Aren't they?  I suppose they're not random in that I know who they are, but they seem rather normal, being neither rich nor poor, not having any exotic practices, doing regular jobs.

[Jacob]

Look, it's ultimately the rapist's "fault", but women (and men) should also exercise risk management. Try to go out at night with a trusted friend that will watch your back (one that is truly vetted and good). Do not hang out with a male acquaintances alone. I have taken women out that hardly knew me in circumstances "as a friend" they should not have agreed to. For example, one to a secluded ranch because she liked horses. Another I drove 40 minutes away from her apartment to my hotel room without prior notice, and she even agreed to a drink. These women genuinely were not seeking sex, but I could have easily stepped over the line.

We could also go over best practices in school setting, church setting, even extended family setting (rape by relative), but the point is to get into a risk management mindset for both victim, possible rapist, and leadership/authorities.

Reminds me of this list of "how to avoid rape" tips I saw recently:

1. Don't put drugs in women's drinks.

2. When you see a woman walking by herself, leave her alone.

3. If you pull over to help a woman whose car has broken down, remember not to rape her.

4. If you are in an elevator and a woman gets in, don't rape her.

5. When you encounter a woman who is asleep, the safest course of action is to not rape her.

6. Never creep into a woman's home through an unlocked door or window, or spring out at her from between parked cars, or rape her.

7. Remember, people go to the laundry room to do their laundry. Do not attempt to molest someone who is alone in a laundry room.

8. Use the Buddy System! If it is inconvenient for you to stop yourself from raping women, ask a trusted friend to accompany you at all times.

9. Carry a rape whistle. If you find that you are about to rape someone, blow the whistle until someone comes to stop you.

10. Don't forget: Honesty is the best policy. When asking a woman out on a date, don't pretend that you are interested in her as a person; tell her straight up that you expect to be raping her later. If you don't communicate your intentions, the woman may take it as a sign that you do not plan to rape her.

[Malthus]

Well, either she is right on this point or the survey is. They can't both be right, as the survey only has the rate at 25%.

Hence the difficulty of evaluating statistics by means of anecdote (same of course goes for those dismissing the results out-of-hand as excessively high).

I am less concerned about the exact percentage, and more concerned by the fact that indicators point to the number be so high that MiM would find them unrealistic; that it's a lot more than many people suppose.

Well yes, certainly.

But that doesn't mean that the numbers passed about are not misleading.

[garbon]

Is it a shitty situation? Yes, it is.

Is it though? I have to wonder in what Berk highlighted if a bigger issue would be people telling her its shitty and that it's sexual assault/rape. What would really just be an unfortunate bit of sex could be spun into a traumatic event but I'm not sure why on the measure it'd be best to take it as such.

[Phillip V]

I was in this situation two years ago. She was naked and oral sex had occurred. But she was about the whole "need a boyfriend/girlfriend label" before vaginal sex, but not forcefully protesting. So I pulled back, but I was sober. If I was younger (stupid) and had been drinking...
And she probably would have convinced herself to keep fucking me in later liaisons to legitimize it. I hate the way this shit works.

You should just avoid women entirely. 

Since age 21, that's what I have done to a certain extent.

1. Eliminated the "need" to pursue women. The sexual desire remains, but now I don't play the game "you interested/not interested?" No need to prove my manhood to anybody. Keep my sexual activity private.
2. Pursuing personal/professional development and good works attracts women on its own. I don't have to chase into grey areas anymore. You either want me or you don't. Confident, direct women approach me, and I like that communication.

[Neil]

Is it a shitty situation? Yes, it is.

Is it though? I have to wonder in what Berk highlighted if a bigger issue would be people telling her its shitty and that it's sexual assault/rape. What would really just be an unfortunate bit of sex could be spun into a traumatic event but I'm not sure why on the measure it'd be best to take it as such.

Because people love drama.

[derspiess]

Yes.  Without any doubt.  Sexual assault is a sex act without consent.  Sarah did not consent.

Do you have to get a verbal "yes" before you proceed? 

[Barrister]

Weird definitions Malthus - to me there's a huge range of sexual assaults inbetween an unwanted touching, and a sex assault where you are held down, hurt or threatened (such as Berkut's date rape example).

By asking women over the age of 15 you're also leaving out a lot of victims...

[MadImmortalMan]

I am never going to allow myself to be alone with a woman ever again. There has to be a witness to my innocence. Also, I am going to require my wife to sign a release form every night before entering the bedroom.