The State of Affairs in Russia

[Malthus]

I agree with JR that Putin does not want to conquer the world - but he wants to rebuild the Russian empire.

It's seems to me that it's pretty clear that Putin (and to be fair, other Russians as well) sees the other former Soviet republics as rightfully belonging to Russia, either as de jure parts of Russian territory or as de facto Russian satellites.  I have doubts that Russia would be satisfied with that if they manage to achieve it, but I don't think they have any specific plans beyond that (or even necessarily specific plans on how to accomplish it in the first place).

I think much of what has happened and is happeing isn't really about Russia trying to create an empire per se, but rather about Russia trying to convince the world that they are still a great power.

The West certainly stepped on their toes in that we expanded NATO, which, let's be honest, is a historically anti-Soviet/Russian alliance right up to their borders. We did this because we didn't think they could really do much about it, or we expected them to not care because NATO has largely morphed from being an anti-Soviet alliance to being more of a generic Western alliance without being specifically targetted at Russia, and gee, isn't that as obvious to them as it is to us?

Of course it isn't obvious to those paranoid nutcases. So they are reacting however they can to what they see as a violation of Russia's sphere of influence.

Looked at objectively, though, one wonders at the success of this strategy.

I know we here in the West like to portray Putin as a ruthless and successful puppet-master, taking what he wants and thumbing his nose at the West's hapless attempts to stop him, but what are his real achievements - compared with the collapse of the Soviet Empire?

His attempts to re-establish it by sneaky use of force are, in truth, pretty pathetic - he has no realistic hope of even taking back Ukraine, which is as far as I can tell a complete economic, political and military basket-case. Yet fighting for a couple of lousy East Ukrainian oblasts and Crimea is economically ruining his country, which is in the shit already because of oil prices. In the process he's made a permanent enemy of the rest of Ukraine, not to mention alarming everyone else in Eastern Europe - particularly the Poles who are on their way to becomming a first-world power.

I can't see this working out well for him, long-term. One wonders what his end-game is supposed to be.

[Valmy]

Yes, and that scenario would most likely lead to an escalation of nuclear weapon deployment, particularly considering the Russian doctrinal acceptance since 2000 of the use of tactical nuclear weapons in sphere-of-influence conflicts--never mind the the fact that any NATO defense of Estonia, or any other frontier member of NATO would necessitate expanding the conflict to sovereign Russian soil proper, and there's your ball game.

Well I disagree.  A force that can defend the Baltics would likely not be large enough to invade Russian soil.

But, in any case, we probably should have thought of this when we expanded NATO in the first place.  Kind of too late now, we have to defend them.

[Valmy]

I can't see this working out well for him, long-term. One wonders what his end-game is supposed to be.

His game was already a failure before he started playing.  Russia going into Great Power politics is delusional.  They could maybe get away with being China's little brother if they were going to reject a pro-western stance.

[The Minsky Moment]

You make it sounds like Putin has always had Crimea/Donetsk as plan B (or even a long term plan). I disagree.

Actually, there are now reports being published (in Novaya Gazeta for example) that Russia had a plan to annex Crimea and Eastern Ukraine ready before Yanukovich even resigned.

I wouldn't be surprised that was included in Russian contingency planning.  But a contingency plan is just that.

[Jacob]

I can't see this working out well for him, long-term. One wonders what his end-game is supposed to be.

His game was already a failure before he started playing.  Russia going into Great Power politics is delusional.  They could maybe get away with being China's little brother if they were going to reject a pro-western stance.

I think the Russians would chafe very much at being anyone's little brother, especially the Chinese.

[The Minsky Moment]

For those posters who have forgotten the fact that nuclear weapons still exist, are still part of the US--NATO-Russian strategic dynamic and were just mentioned in that one episode of VH1's "I Love the 80's", the one with Donkey Kong.

So would you say you are not a proponent of "strategic patience"?

His substantive point would suggest otherwise, unless one is a fan of nuclear brinksmanship.

[dps]

A force that can defend the Baltics would likely not be large enough to invade Russian soil.

The problem is, you can't just stand on the defensive indefinitely.  At the very least, you'd have to interdict the enemy's supply lines, which in a Baltic invasion scenario means hitting targets inside Russia.

Granted, it's certainly possible that our so-called political "leaders" in the West might impose restriction on our military operations that would include a ban on any intrusions into Russia proper, but that would just hang any troops we send to the Baltics out to dry in the long run.

[CountDeMoney]

Well I disagree.  A force that can defend the Baltics would likely not be large enough to invade Russian soil.

Not talking invasion of Russia.  Cruise missile and air strikes against air bases, munitions depots and other conflict staging areas are not invasions.   But we're not going to defend the Baltic States without conducting those kinds of escalatory actions.

But, in any case, we probably should have thought of this when we expanded NATO in the first place.  Kind of too late now, we have to defend them.

We did, and for good reason.  But Putin, for all his cult of personality nonsense, is not going to attack a NATO member nation in order to get the band back together, regardless of how badly he wants to live in 1979. 

It's all rhetoric anyway;  Russian conventional forces are a complete wreck, all bubble gum and bale wire bullshit, and nobody knows that more than Moscow.  Chechnya was a mess, Georgia was a mess, the Ukraine is a mess.   They can't handle themselves against opponents in the Carolina bus leagues, imagine if they had to play in Yankee Stadium.

[Tonitrus]

And it's probably a given that, in any kind of NATO Baltic defense scenario, Kaliningrad has to go.

And Belarus would probably throw in with Russia because, what the hell?

[derspiess]

So would you say you are not a proponent of "strategic patience"?

I am a proponent of "giving Valmy shit about nukes."

As you should be.  He's a noted nuke denier.  Or something.

[Tonitrus]

So would you say you are not a proponent of "strategic patience"?

I am a proponent of "giving Valmy shit about nukes."

As you should be.  He's a noted nuke denier.  Or something.

'

His arch-enemy:

[The Brain]

So would you say you are not a proponent of "strategic patience"?

I am a proponent of "giving Valmy shit about nukes."

As you should be.  He's a noted nuke denier.  Or something.

Nuke destrier.

[CountDeMoney]

I am a proponent of "giving Valmy shit about nukes."

As you should be.  He's a noted nuke denier.  Or something.

Most fossil fuel whores are.  WHAT OZONE

[Valmy]

Most fossil fuel whores are.  WHAT OZONE

Once we get our battery farms armed and operational we shall cover the world with our wind farms.  Or at least the important Texas parts of it.

[Tonitrus]

And no birds will survive to fly over Texas.