The State of Affairs in Russia

[Syt]

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/russia-military-agreement-in-cyprus-2015-2

Russia is reportedly getting military bases in an EU state

Cyprus has offered Russia to have air and navy bases on its territory.

Cypriot president Nicos Anastasiades announced that the country is ready to host Russian aviation and naval bases. The official agreement on military cooperation between the two nations is expected be signed on February 25, 2015, according to Lenta.ru.

"There is an old [defence] agreement, which should be renewed as is. At the same time, some additional services will be provided in the same way as we do with other countries, such as, for example, with France and Germany," Nicos Anastasiades said. "Cyprus and Russia have traditionally had good relations, and this is not subject to change."

Cyprus' announcement comes after Russia expressed interest in having a military base in Cyprus in late January, according to the Global Post and Greek Reporter.

Notably, Cyprus is one of the 28-member states in the EU, which have been imposing sanctions on Russia over the past year in response to the actions in Ukraine.

And just like Greece has recently caused a stir by complicating the process of extending sanctions on Russia, Cyprus, too, just voiced some opposition to the additional sanctions on Russia, adding that many EU members share that opinion.

"We want to avoid further deterioration of relations between Russia and the European Union," the Cypriot president reportedly said.

So military cooperation between Cyprus and Russia is yet another red flag for the EU.



Presumably, the Russian Air Force will use the airbase "Andreas Papandreou," along with the international airport of Paphos in the southwest of the island, approximately 50 kilometers from the air base of the British Royal Air Force "Akrotiri." Additionally, the Russian navy will be able to permanently use the base of Limassol, according to Lenta.Ru.

"The Limassol port borders on the British air base of Akrotiri which serves NATO operations and is also an important hub in the electronic military surveillance system of the alliance," according to the Global Post.

Given Russia and Cyprus' shady economic relationship over the last two decades (ever since the fall of the USSR), perhaps this isn't all that surprising.

Russia Today reports that "Russians have transferred over $US30 billion (around $US1 trillion roubles) to Cyprus over the past twenty years, according to a study published by a group of economists from Russia, Finland and Canada."

In 2013, during the Cypriot financial crisis, analysts estimated that over a third of bank deposits in Cyprus may have had Russian origin, and reportedly, many Russian companies are registered on the island. Some reports even went as far as saying that Cyprus has become "a major money laundering machine for Russian criminals" back in 2013.

Even today, Russia's current economic problems are reportedly further dragging down Cyprus.

"Russia's presence in the economy has been a huge supporting factor. Its footprint is everywhere from tourism to real estate, so it is worth monitoring the impact," said Michael Florentiades, chief economist and head of investment research at XM.com, an online financial services company in Limassol.

Naturally, Russia's heavy-duty financial involvement in a EU state "raised concerns among the island country's Western allies" over the past few years, according to Euractiv.

But the most alarming Russia-Cyprus dalliance came during the height of the Cypriot financial crisis when Cyprus was reportedly negotiating with Russia for a bailout in 2013. The EU was particularly nervous about this because there was speculation that Russia might ask for a naval port and access to the country's gas reserves in return.

Ultimately, however, Cyprus opted for a "€10 billion bailout agreed with the troika, in return for closing the country's second largest bank Laiki, and imposing a one-time levy on all uninsured deposits, including those held by foreign citizens."

On top of all of that, it's notable that Russia made some major moves in the Mediterranean recently.

In mid-January, Russia announced that it will shift all its natural gas flows to Europe via Turkey, instead of Ukraine.

"Our European partners have been informed of this and now their task is to create the necessary gas transport infrastructure from the Greek and Turkish border," the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller said in a statement.

Additionally, Russia and Greece's new government have taken initiatives to explore their military and economic relationship (for example, here, here, and here).

In fact, the new Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras even stated in early February: "Greece and Cyprus can become a bridge of peace and cooperation between the EU and Russia."

So this part of the world could soon become very interesting — and a huge pain for Europe.

[Martinus]

It seems with, broadly speaking, four current events metathreads (Russia, European Left, Charlie Hebdo, ISIL) we still have enough cross-overs to warrant a further merger. 

I for one would welcome kicking Greece and Cyprus out of the EU.

[DGuller]

All kidding aside, EU will have to figure out a way to deal with Benedict Arnold countries.  You can't have EU's #1 enemy sow discord by buying the cheapest of the 28 potential liberum vetos.

[Martinus]

All kidding aside, EU will have to figure out a way to deal with Benedict Arnold countries.  You can't have EU's #1 enemy sow discord by buying the cheapest of the 28 potential liberum vetos.

Yeah. It's a good point. The veto mechanics has been seriously restricted lately but it still applies to a number of areas.

[Tamas]

WTF Cyprus?

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah, if true they would out-Orban Orban...

[KRonn]

Putin must have made them a deal "they couldn't refuse". Someone's getting very well paid off.

[Tamas]

Putin must have made them a deal "they couldn't refuse". Someone's getting very well paid off.

But this is ridicoulous. The EU is busy sanctioning Russia, and then an EU state gives a decisively strategic military base to Russia. I am getting more and more convinced that the EU is stuck in these very unhealthy middle position between a mere trade union and an USA-ist state. Going either way would be an advance from this one.

[Tonitrus]

If Turkey had a better government, the idea of reunification of Cyprus might be more attractive.

[Syt]

http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/776341

NICOSIA, February 9. /TASS/. Moscow and Nicosia are in negotiations on the possibility of using airports and seaports of Cyprus by Russian warplanes and warships in humanitarian operations and emergencies, President of the Republic of Cyprus Nicos Anastasiades told TASS in an exclusive interview on Monday ahead of his forthcoming visit to Russia.
Airports and seaports of Cyprus may be available to Russian warplanes and ships in emergency situations and humanitarian operations, Anastasiades told TASS First Deputy Director General Mikhail Gusman. In fact, the two counties are updating their effective bilateral military agreement.
According to some previous media reports, Russia allegedly intended to create military bases on Cyprus.

[KRonn]

Putin must have made them a deal "they couldn't refuse". Someone's getting very well paid off.

But this is ridicoulous. The EU is busy sanctioning Russia, and then an EU state gives a decisively strategic military base to Russia. I am getting more and more convinced that the EU is stuck in these very unhealthy middle position between a mere trade union and an USA-ist state. Going either way would be an advance from this one.

Yeah, I know it's crazy, but as the article states, Russian tourism and other economic factors of Russia have a large effect on Cyprus. Those same factors also influence other Euro nations, especially energy, of which they rely on Russia for. That's all obvious to everyone so it's going to be tough confronting Putin on what he's doing now or has planned, though the sanctions seem to be having a great effect as Russia's economy and currency are crashing. I also feel that the reports of around 80% support for Putin are way exaggerated by a corrupt/gangster government. Plus, who is going to say they don't support Putin given the possible consequences from the government?

[jimmy olsen]

The New Cold War
It will take much more than weapons to save Ukraine—and keep Russia at bay.
By Anne Applebaum

In an ordinary year, not all that much happens at the annual Munich security conference. NATO defense ministers murmur earnest platitudes. Experts furrow their brows. But this is not an ordinary year.

This year, the normally staid audience laughed out loud at the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who seemed, at one point, to question the legality of German unification. Some of the room also applauded loudly when Angela Merkel, the German chancellor—just back from an apparently fruitless peace mission to Moscow—restated her view that "there is no military solution" to the conflict in Ukraine. But when Malcolm Rifkind, the former British foreign secretary, asked her how she would stop Russia without military force, another part of the audience applauded. Even watching online, the conundrum in the room was clear: Everyone agrees that the Russians were lying, and no one believes Russian promises of a cease-fire. But nobody agrees on what to do about it.

Clearly, the real debate about Ukraine and Russia has yet to begin, by which I don't just mean the "should we arm Ukraine?" debate. This is an appealing discussion, not least because it appears to pit the United States (Mars) against Europe (Venus). But fundamentally, it's a red herring. The armaments debate is an argument about short-term tactics, not long-term strategy—and it ignores the real nature of the Russian game.

Before last year, eastern Ukraine had no history of ethnic conflict. Well-armed "separatists" emerged on the scene only when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered them there. The "civil war" that ensued is an artificial conflict, run by Russian security and enhanced by a sophisticated pan-European disinformation campaign. It will last as long as the Russians want it to last. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, has told the Wall Street Journal that the Russians have deployed their most modern air defense and electronic warfare systems, weapons "way above and beyond" anything a rebel army could deploy.

The point of the war is not to achieve a victory. The point is to prevent the emergence of anything resembling a prosperous, European Ukraine, because such a state would pose an ideological threat to Putinism. Following this logic, even a German-brokered cease-fire will not bring "peace," but rather a so-called frozen conflict, following an old KGB design: Transnistria in Moldova, South Ossetia in Georgia, now Novorossiya in Ukraine. Once it is up and running, Russia can set up a new secret police service in Novorossiya, create new bases for the Russian army, perhaps train terrorist squads there. Mysterious bombs have already exploded in Kiev and Kharkiv. In December, six bombs went off in Odessa alone.

This can all happen very quickly, within days or weeks, which is why the argument about "arming Ukraine" is almost beside the point. Yes, over time, the Ukrainian army could be reinforced: That might keep the borders of the new Russian puppet state from expanding further. But even the United States can't deliver weapons fast enough to push the most sophisticated Russian weaponry out of Ukraine anytime soon. Short of sending the 82nd Airborne division into Donetsk, it's hard to see how even the most high-tech U.S. aid can prevent the establishment of Novorossiya, since in practice it already exists.

What the West needs now is not merely a military policy but a comprehensive, long-term strategy designed to reinforce Ukrainian statehood and integrate Ukraine into Europe over many years. We could begin training not only the Ukrainian military but also the security services, which were devastated by the previous Ukrainian president. We could push far more forcefully for economic reform and support it with real financial commitments. We could treat this as a very long-term project, as Merkel suggested on Saturday, build a Berlin Wall around Donetsk in the form of a demilitarized zone and treat the rest of Ukraine like West Germany.

We could recognize the real danger Russia poses to Europe, not only as a source of violence but also as a source of political and economic corruption. We could impose much harsher, much deeper sanctions. We could cut Russia out of the international payments system. We could enforce our own laws and stop turning a blind eye to Russian money laundering, most of which takes place in European capitals. The city of London and the gnomes of Zurich might pay a price for the loss of Russian clients. But that price will still be far lower than the potential costs of doing nothing.

For what is the alternative? Ukraine collapses, and Putin is emboldened, as he was after his invasion of Georgia in 2008. He begins planning the next "frozen conflict." If he does so in a NATO state, perhaps Lithuania or Estonia, a much wider and even more damaging European conflict would follow. We don't want a new Cold War—but even that would be preferable to a new World War. And if we don't come up with a serious strategy to prevent one, that's what we'll get.

[Norgy]

WTF Cyprus?

Broke. And with Russian capital shoring up the banks that once gave Cyprus some relevance.
Judging from personal experience, I'd say the fucking Russians have already invaded the Med with their small swimming trunks and daytime vodka binging. Worst. Tourists. Ever.

[Tonitrus]

The New Cold War
It will take much more than weapons to save Ukraine—and keep Russia at bay.
By Anne Applebaum

Hard to take seriously any op-ed that actually used the term "gnomes of Zurich".

[Malicious Intent]

Cyprus now denies leasing bases to Russia.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31293330