The State of Affairs in Russia

[Eddie Teach]

Common man don't die on us.   

[KRonn]

He called for urgent action by Nato to mount a rapid deployment force of several thousand troops in a permanent state of "high readiness" and able to act within 48-72 hours as a deterrent, but the cost is proving prohibitive. "It is very expensive. Only a few are able to do it," he said. 

Ouch, the most alarming thing would seem to be the poor state of the military of too many Euro/NATO nations. Then that this small measure is not doable and not affordable with even just a few thousand troops is very surprising. Weren't Euro nations already talking about this a few years ago? I would have figured this force was all up and set by now.  Surprising too as these are all wealthy, prosperous nations, especially as compared to most nations of the world.

[The Minsky Moment]

I read it as "France" instead of "Farce". Which I suppose is the same thing.

The line is from the 18th Brumaire, so the misreading works too.

[Sheilbh]

I love this photo. I like to think it's the moment that Hollande realises that while Merkel and Putin speak both German and Russian, he speaks neither:

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, call me naive but I don't see Putin attacking a NATO state. Unfortunately I think if he wanted to attack one of the newer/smaller ones, he could largely get away with it. I just don't buy into any of the important NATO countries willing to go to war with Russia over Estonia. I think they'll spew the strongest threats ever heard, shut Russia out of the international banking system and it'll be a return of the Cold War, but the little Baltics would fall, simple as that. Poland knows this reality which is why they've gradually increased military spending. Russia would not try this shit with Poland because it simply cannot without massive casualties. To be honest I'm not sure Russia could overrun Poland these days with conventional military forces.

FWIW I also find the threats of American "lethal aid" to Ukraine to be laughable. Shipping anti-tank weapons and various other things any competent military for a country the size of Ukraine would have in tons isn't going to change the war on the ground. That shit takes too long to deploy and get soldiers trained on to have any effect, and at the end of the day there's no way to quickly reverse 15 years of extremely poor management of the military and the country at large.

[CountDeMoney]

Yeah, call me naive but I don't see Putin attacking a NATO state. Unfortunately I think if he wanted to attack one of the newer/smaller ones, he could largely get away with it. I just don't buy into any of the important NATO countries willing to go to war with Russia over Estonia. I think they'll spew the strongest threats ever heard, shut Russia out of the international banking system and it'll be a return of the Cold War, but the little Baltics would fall, simple as that. Poland knows this reality which is why they've gradually increased military spending. Russia would not try this shit with Poland because it simply cannot without massive casualties. To be honest I'm not sure Russia could overrun Poland these days with conventional military forces.

It's not a matter of whether or not NATO countries "would be willing" to go to war over Estonia;  a NATO member is a NATO member, it's a mutual defense treaty organization for fuck's sake, Otto.

Poland isn't Georgia or the Ukraine, so yeah, I think there would be a good chance that Poland would punch in the mouth the handful of first echelon units it would take Russia 3 months to scrape together with bubble gum and bale wire, but I think there are still enough former Soviet officers around to realize that any invasion of a member NATO country would eventually go nuclear.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't buy into it, NATO existed for Cold War reasons. Now it largely exists for joint military operations when the UNSC won't act but the West largely decides actions are necessary--which is typical, because China and Russia typically veto any SC resolutions involving action against dictatorships. When the Soviet Union was a massive and powerful empire with the entire rest of the Warsaw Pact as tributary vassals and we had established the doctrine of nuclear war that would result from rolling West in Europe I agree with where you're coming from. But even expansionist Russia under Putin is extremely weak, he's gobbling off tiny little slivers of land here and there and presides over a gutted military and wrecked economy. Even with the infusions into it seen by Putin Russia's conventional forces are nothing compared to what they were in the Soviet days, in terms of training, equipment, and importantly readiness.

Without the NATO guarantee the Soviets literally would have conquered West Germany and likely Austria and the Balkans/Greece I believe. Now Putin could not conquer all of Ukraine if he wanted--his military is simply too weak to occupy a hostile country of that size. Without any meaningful threat to central or Western Europe I think the urgency of Russia is far diminished. For that reason, and because Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania are vastly different strategically versus West Germany during the Cold War I genuinely do not believe we would go to open war with Russia over an invasion of any or all three of them. Certainly we would not launch nuclear weapons over it.

[dps]

If we're not willing to go to war to defend the Baltic States, we shouldn't have allowed them to join NATO.

[OttoVonBismarck]

If we're not willing to go to war to defend the Baltic States, we shouldn't have allowed them to join NATO.

There's a great many things that shouldn't be done, that are.

[Martinus]

So, Hollande, Merkel, Poroshenko and Lavrov are now in Munich. Talking about peace in our time. 

[Duque de Bragança]

So, Hollande, Merkel, Poroshenko and Lavrov are now in Munich. Talking about peace in our time. 

Hollande/Flanby is not (yet) there.  He was in Moscow though (à la Laval pre-Vichy?).

Seems the Turkish FM is not present at this yearly security conference to avoid Israel.  Erdogan's Turkey, once again victim of European racism!

http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/60228-150206-turkey-fm-pulls-out-of-munich-conference-to-avoid-israeli-participants

[dps]

If we're not willing to go to war to defend the Baltic States, we shouldn't have allowed them to join NATO.

There's a great many things that shouldn't be done, that are.

.


True, and I'm not saying that you're wrong when you say that NATO countries (including the US) wouldn't honor their treaty obligations if Russia were to invade one or more of the Baltic States, though I'm not saying you're right, either.  I frankly don't know;  I have my doubts.  I'm just saying that entering into a treaty without any intention of actually honoring it is, uhm, unfortunate.

It's kind of like a national-level version of those National Guard members who tried to get out of being mobilized to go to Iraq or Afghanistan and said stuff like, "When we joined, we didn't think we'd ever actually have to fight".  Dumbasses.

[The Brain]

If Russia invades some Baltic states it will be by proxy which will give NATO the fig leaf it needs.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Right, Ukraine is an example of this. If Russia were to invade the Baltics (I do not think they would), it will be the same way they've invaded Ukraine.

[KRonn]

Right, Ukraine is an example of this. If Russia were to invade the Baltics (I do not think they would), it will be the same way they've invaded Ukraine.

Yep, and that may give some NATO nations an excuse to deny Article five, not intervene to support a Baltic nation, as they'll have an out and perhaps conveniently claim it's internal issues, not meddling by Russia. But everyone will know otherwise, just as they do in Ukraine. I hope that isn't the route that NATO goes.