The State of Affairs in Russia

[DGuller]

Do you have a rational explanation on why Putin would invade? Every crime needs a motive.

I asked this question a dozen times. I got no logical response.

Probably because it's an idiotic question.  If you point a gun at me, I'm going to feel threatened, whether I understand why you may want to shoot me or not.

[Tamas]

The Russians said repeatedly the troops are there because of the NATO activity.

Really, mate. I think most of us have been pretty civil in the discussion here, can you please stop insulting our intelligence? You cannot possibly believe, that a few hundred/thousand NATO troops scattered between the Baltics and Romania warrants Russia to mass 100k+ troops on the border of, wait for it, not Estonia, Not Lithuania, not Latvia (i.e. Russian borders with NATO), heck not even the Kalinigrad enclave. No, it's the Ukrainian border they amass troops on.

[crazy canuck]

GdM, the West is talking about the threat of Russian invasion because Russia has amassed its soldiers on Ukraine's borders.

I just don't get the supposed motive for this invasion.

I'm not sure motive even matters, it seems to be happening. Or at least Russia is spending lots of money and diplomatic capital on making the threat of it happening real.

How can it be happening without the need?

The Russians said repeatedly the troops are there because of the NATO activity.

We're in a deadlock.

The answer has already been given - miscalculation or mistake; the same way a lot of wars are started.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Allez arrête.. quelle activité de l'OTAN? Les 3 ou 4 instructeurs, ca requiert 100 000 troupes et des chars d'assaut?

Les 3 ou 4 instructeurs 

The Russian concerns go back at least to April 2021:

https://www.interfax.ru/amp/760031

Machine-translated to English:

The Russian Foreign Ministry announced an increase in NATO activity in Ukraine and the Black Sea

Moscow. April 7. INTERFAX.RU - NATO continues to increase the activity of its armed forces on the territory of Ukraine and in the Black Sea, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

"We drew attention to the aggressive information campaign unleashed recently by Ukraine and a number of Western countries that are trying to accuse Russia of escalating tensions in Donbass and on the Russian-Ukrainian border. The aggravated situation in eastern Ukraine, provoked by the Kiev authorities themselves, as well as planned measures of the Russian armed forces for combat training, which are regularly held on the territory of Russia during this period of time and do not exceed the scale of previous years," the comment of the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Maria Zakharova, distributed on Wednesday, reads, was chosen as an occasion.

As noted in the document, "we consider such a policy of disinformation and propaganda as actions designed to create the necessary information background and distract attention from Kiev's own military preparations in Donbass, Ukrainian sabotage of the implementation of the Minsk agreements and increasing military activity of NATO countries on the territory of Ukraine".

The commentary also notes that "currently Kiev continues to draw new forces and weapons to the line of contact in Donbass and violate the ceasefire".

Zakharova reminded that seven joint exercises are planned for 2021 on Ukrainian territory with various alliance countries. "Extelligence activities of foreign countries in Ukraine along the borders with Russia and the line of contact in Donbass using aircraft and radio electronic means have significantly intensified," said the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.

In addition, according to her, "the financial and material and logistics support of the Ukrainian armed forces from NATO countries, the supply of lethal weapons, training of Ukrainian servicemen by Western instructors continue".

"We call on Ukraine and NATO countries to stop the hysterical Russophobic propaganda campaign, stop military preparations and escalation of tensions in Donbass and refrain from actions that can lead to destabilization of the situation in eastern Ukraine," Zakharova stressed.

She noted that Russia stands "for the settlement of the conflict in Donbass exclusively by peaceful means on an alternative basis of the Minsk "Complex of Measures", approved by UN Security Council resolution 2202.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

The answer has already been given - miscalculation or mistake; the same way a lot of wars are started.

This I can understand.

In other words, no rational explanation.

[crazy canuck]

The answer has already been given - miscalculation or mistake; the same way a lot of wars are started.

This I can understand.

In other words, no rational explanation.

That seems to be the biggest worry of the analysists interviewed by the CBC

[DGuller]

Really, mate. I think most of us have been pretty civil in the discussion here, can you please stop insulting our intelligence? You cannot possibly believe, that a few hundred/thousand NATO troops scattered between the Baltics and Romania warrants Russia to mass 100k+ troops on the border of, wait for it, not Estonia, Not Lithuania, not Latvia (i.e. Russian borders with NATO), heck not even the Kalinigrad enclave. No, it's the Ukrainian border they amass troops on.

Yeah, seriously, I'm finding it increasingly impossible to believe that Gaijin is discussing things in good faith here.  His tone is civil, but the content is extremely insulting.  I don't know why Putin is massing his troops at Ukrainian border, but he is, and that's a threat.  I don't know why Gaijin sounds so much like a professional Russian troll, but he does, and that is at the very least a little disturbing.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

That seems to be the biggest worry of the analysists interviewed by the CBC

Makes sense, thank you for a simple response with no ideology.

Appreciated.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Really, mate. I think most of us have been pretty civil in the discussion here, can you please stop insulting our intelligence? You cannot possibly believe, that a few hundred/thousand NATO troops scattered between the Baltics and Romania warrants Russia to mass 100k+ troops on the border of, wait for it, not Estonia, Not Lithuania, not Latvia (i.e. Russian borders with NATO), heck not even the Kalinigrad enclave. No, it's the Ukrainian border they amass troops on.

Yeah, seriously, I'm finding it increasingly impossible to believe that Gaijin is discussing things in good faith here.  His tone is civil, but the content is extremely insulting.  I don't know why Putin is massing his troops at Ukrainian border, but he is, and that's a threat.  I don't know why Gaijin sounds so much like a professional Russian troll, but he does, and that is at the very least a little disturbing.

I'm confused, and trying to understand.

My "problem" is I'm seeing the escalating issue from both sides of the fence. And I'm seeing a massive disconnect.

It may seem like "trolling" to you because I'm the only one doubting the officially recognised narrative... I definitely don't mean it this way.

[Zoupa]

Russia has said during the talks going on today that they want NATO troops withdrawn from Romania and Bulgaria which is, I think, new and it seems strange to escalate the demands.

I saw that Romania have rejected and France has called for more troops to be put into Romania and Bulgaria instead

[Malthus]

GdM, the West is talking about the threat of Russian invasion because Russia has amassed its soldiers on Ukraine's borders.

I just don't get the supposed motive for this invasion.

I'm not sure motive even matters, it seems to be happening. Or at least Russia is spending lots of money and diplomatic capital on making the threat of it happening real.

How can it be happening without the need?

The Russians said repeatedly the troops are there because of the NATO activity.

We're in a deadlock.

A motive derived from the conflict of rival nationalisms I was talking about.

From what I've heard, Russians by and large are weary of Putin's autocratic ways, and the COVID response/impact in Russia was and is pretty bad (it's been bad everywhere, but Russians are cranky about it). Putin is busy cracking down even harder on dissent. There are popular uprisings all over the Russosphere ... so Putin is feeling edgy.

When an autocrat is feeling edgy, what's his go-to solution? Why, stir up an external enemy, of course. Many Russians, even those who hate Putin, basically agree with him that Ukrainians are just Russians artificially separated by Western meddling, and the march of NATO toward Russia marks Russia's decline. So threats to undo that may have the effect of uniting Russians under the dear leader.

The issue is whether mere posturing will "do", if this is the motive. The fear is that it may not, unless the West hands him an easy win by way of appeasement. Problem is that his ask is something that the West is unlikely to agree with, as it would represent extreme cowardice.

Basically, the fear is that Putin has painted himself into a corner from which he can't extract himself without actual fighting - again, an analogy may be with Egypt before the 1967 war.

[Tamas]

I'm the only one doubting the officially recognised

No. You are the only one ACCEPTING the official narrative of the side doing the troop-massing.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

A motive derived from the conflict of rival nationalisms I was talking about.

From what I've heard, Russians by and large are weary of Putin's autocratic ways, and the COVID response/impact in Russia was and is pretty bad (it's been bad everywhere, but Russians are cranky about it). Putin is busy cracking down even harder on dissent. There are popular uprisings all over the Russosphere ... so Putin is feeling edgy.

When an autocrat is feeling edgy, what's his go-to solution? Why, stir up an external enemy, of course. Many Russians, even those who hate Putin, basically agree with him that Ukrainians are just Russians artificially separated by Western meddling, and the march of NATO toward Russia marks Russia's decline. So threats to undo that may have the effect of uniting Russians under the dear leader.

The issue is whether mere posturing will "do", if this is the motive. The fear is that it may not, unless the West hands him an easy win by way of appeasement. Problem is that his ask is something that the West is unlikely to agree with, as it would represent extreme cowardice.

Basically, the fear is that Putin has painted himself into a corner from which he can't extract himself without actual fighting - again, an analogy may be with Egypt before the 1967 war.

Interesting view.

I agree with being in the corner analogy — the RU government themselves have said they have nowhere to retreat at this stage.

But it has nothing to do with UA. It has everything to do with NATO.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

I'm the only one doubting the officially recognised

No. You are the only one ACCEPTING the official narrative of the side doing the troop-massing.

I won't argue perceptions. I understand why you may see it this way though.

[Duque de Bragança]

Russia has said during the talks going on today that they want NATO troops withdrawn from Romania and Bulgaria which is, I think, new and it seems strange to escalate the demands.

I saw that Romania have rejected and France has called for more troops to be put into Romania and Bulgaria instead

Bulgaria rejected it as well. From an orthodox slavic nation traditionally close to Russia, that's quite telling.