The State of Affairs in Russia

[Valmy]

We are winning. Cause we have tiger blood.

We're bi-winning. Win here, win there, win win everywhere!

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Ukraine's president published his official address to Ukrainians:

https://youtu.be/DSMMlF9vptg

"No panic, breathe out, no need for emergency supplies." He goes on to describe the peaceful year ahead.

Net, both the Russian and Ukrainian presidents have said "no invasion."

So who is pushing the "invasion" narrative?

[Valmy]

Probably the guys massing tons of troops on the border? 

Anyway at this point I agree nothing will happen. But I still think we should ship all those drones to Ukraine.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Yep, that's an old Soviet poster from 1921: "Donbas is the heart of Russia."

Not anymore though. After the commies cut the heavily industrialised Donbas from Russia and stuck it into Ukraine ("to raise the class self-awareness of Ukrainian peasant masses"), we grew other industrial hearts.

Communists and their arbitrary borders. How many deaths they caused...

[Sheilbh]

Spoke too soon on the western response being impressively united as Macron announces that "it is good that Europeans and the United States co-ordinate, but it is necessary that Europeans conduct their own dialogue" and that "these next few weeks should lead us to bring about a European proposal building a new order of security and stability. We must build it between Europeans, then share it with our NATO allies, then then propose it to the negotiation with Russia".

Russia has rejected this and said they don't want to bring too many countries in as it's counter-productive and they're talking with the US.

And I'm not sure it's likely to arrange a new order of security in a few weeks or super-helpful during a crisis - and frankly I suspect a larger proportion of EU states would prefer negotiations through the NATO channel (with the US) than through a European-only channel.

Edit: But this is what I mean about Macron would love it if we kicked some of this into the long-grass for summits on the European security architecture etc.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Probably the guys massing tons of troops on the border? 

Anyway at this point I agree nothing will happen. But I still think we should ship all those drones to Ukraine.

The Russian troops are on the Russian territory in response to the NATO activity in Ukraine. We've talked this.

And yep, nothing will happen.

[Valmy]

Probably the guys massing tons of troops on the border? 

Anyway at this point I agree nothing will happen. But I still think we should ship all those drones to Ukraine.

The Russian troops are on the Russian territory in response to the NATO activity in Ukraine. We've talked this.

And yep, nothing will happen.

Well it is hardly a proportionate response. NATO does not have thousands of troops in Ukraine.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Spoke too soon on the western response being impressively united as Macron announces that "it is good that Europeans and the United States co-ordinate, but it is necessary that Europeans conduct their own dialogue" and that "these next few weeks should lead us to bring about a European proposal building a new order of security and stability. We must build it between Europeans, then share it with our NATO allies, then then propose it to the negotiation with Russia".

Russia has rejected this and said they don't want to bring too many countries in as it's counter-productive and they're talking with the US.

And I'm not sure it's likely to arrange a new order of security in a few weeks or super-helpful during a crisis - and frankly I suspect a larger proportion of EU states would prefer negotiations through the NATO channel (with the US) than through a European-only channel.

I'm starting to believe all this noise is just a distraction.

Real decisions are being talked and locked away from cameras and mics.

Russia is run by secret service, after all. Maskirovka is everything

[Zoupa]

Spoke too soon on the western response being impressively united as Macron announces that "it is good that Europeans and the United States co-ordinate, but it is necessary that Europeans conduct their own dialogue" and that "these next few weeks should lead us to bring about a European proposal building a new order of security and stability. We must build it between Europeans, then share it with our NATO allies, then then propose it to the negotiation with Russia".

Russia has rejected this and said they don't want to bring too many countries in as it's counter-productive and they're talking with the US.

And I'm not sure it's likely to arrange a new order of security in a few weeks or super-helpful during a crisis - and frankly I suspect a larger proportion of EU states would prefer negotiations through the NATO channel (with the US) than through a European-only channel.

Edit: But this is what I mean about Macron would love it if we kicked some of this into the long-grass for summits on the European security architecture etc.

Love it. AUKUS comes due. Live and learn, Blinken.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Well it is hardly a proportionate response. NATO does not have thousands of troops in Ukraine.

Europe is small and full of NATO troops. Ukraine is small. Russia, on the other hand, is rather big and sparse in railways. It makes sense to have them where they are.

Anyway, I don't imagine the modern wars are fought with boots on the ground.

Ps: I just realised you used "Russia" and "proportionate response" in the same sentence

[Sheilbh]

Love it. AUKUS comes due. Live and learn, Blinken.

Re. history mattering - see France

I also saw a poll that now only 40% of the French see the UK or Australia as allies

[Berkut]

Nobody said history doesn't matter.

[Tamas]

Probably the guys massing tons of troops on the border? 

Anyway at this point I agree nothing will happen. But I still think we should ship all those drones to Ukraine.

The Russian troops are on the Russian territory in response to the NATO activity in Ukraine. We've talked this.

And yep, nothing will happen.

Well it is hardly a proportionate response. NATO does not have thousands of troops in Ukraine.

What NATO activity are we even talking about?

[Tamas]

Spoke too soon on the western response being impressively united as Macron announces that "it is good that Europeans and the United States co-ordinate, but it is necessary that Europeans conduct their own dialogue" and that "these next few weeks should lead us to bring about a European proposal building a new order of security and stability. We must build it between Europeans, then share it with our NATO allies, then then propose it to the negotiation with Russia".

Russia has rejected this and said they don't want to bring too many countries in as it's counter-productive and they're talking with the US.

And I'm not sure it's likely to arrange a new order of security in a few weeks or super-helpful during a crisis - and frankly I suspect a larger proportion of EU states would prefer negotiations through the NATO channel (with the US) than through a European-only channel.

Edit: But this is what I mean about Macron would love it if we kicked some of this into the long-grass for summits on the European security architecture etc.

Love it. AUKUS comes due. Live and learn, Blinken.

More likely, it's election season in France and they still like to pretend they are big shots and having IMPORTANT BUSINESS conducted while ignoring them is upsetting.

[Malthus]

Love it. AUKUS comes due. Live and learn, Blinken.

Re. history mattering - see France

I also saw a poll that now only 40% of the French see the UK or Australia as allies

I don't get it. Why do you guys think disunity is *good?*