The State of Affairs in Russia

[Gaijin de Moscu]

With some help from a friendly neighbor

You think it was Russia's plan for Ukraine to charge Poroshenko with high treason (apparently the new president blames the earlier president for working for Russia) and for Poroshenko to return to Kiev today, amidst all the geopolitical hysteria?



Pourquoi pas! Anything goes at this stage, lol.

(My views differ from those expressed in your post, but have no desire to engage... sorry... I have no more energy for Ukraine).

[Gaijin de Moscu]

You know, it's information like this one below which may eventually turn me into a cynic. Because from a cynical point of view, it might look like Europe is giving Russia a "discount" off the promised "sanctions from hell" for the presumed Ukraine invasion scheduled for the next week or two.

"We won't disconnect you from SWIFT... we won't stop buying your gas... and we'll make sure you'll be able to receive our money."

https://app.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/ukraine-krise-swift-sanktionen-vom-tisch-eu-und-usa-ruecken-vom-ausschluss-russlands-aus-globalem-finanzsystem-ab/27982580.html?ticket=ST-287372-C1dtLHdpz4BY7chbadrJ-ap3

Europe and the USA defuse the Western sanctions threats against Moscow: The idea of disconnecting Russian banks from the payment service provider Swift and thus de fact from global financial flows is not pursued further. The Handelsblatt learned this from government sources. Instead, targeted economic penalties are being prepared against the largest Russian banks.

Americans and Europeans have been discussing for weeks how to react in the event of a Russian military operation against Ukraine. The EU threatens the Kremlin with "massive consequences", but has not yet specified them.

Excluding Russia from the Swift system across the board is too delicate for the negotiators. The move could lead to destabilization of the financial markets in the short term and promote the development of an alternative, no longer Western-dominated payment infrastructure in the medium term.

The talks between Europeans and the USA are now aimed at shaping sanctions against major Russian banks. Germany insists on exceptions so that the payment of gas and oil imports from Russia remains possible.

By the way, Mr. Trump used to introduce sanctions against Russia like clockwork, almost every month. 48 months of presidency — 40 items of sanctions.

I can't recall any sanctions by Mr. Biden since last June, maybe. I could be wrong.

[jimmy olsen]

I think they are concerned about a nuclear attack - they would be crazy not to.

That isn't what I am talking about though.

The idea that the West would, under any conceivable circumstances, invade Russia is ridiculous, and they know that as well as we do.

If you think nuclear war is on the table, than surely everything else is as well.

[jimmy olsen]

Just like it is important to not spend too much time arguing about whether or not the election was actually stolen from Trump. The people you are arguing with don't actually believe it either.

I completely disagree. People believe complete nonsense earnestly all the time. Either they're stupid and gullible from the get go or they repeat the lie so often they come to believe it. The later can happen to otherwise reasonable and intelligent people.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

I think they are concerned about a nuclear attack - they would be crazy not to.

That isn't what I am talking about though.

The idea that the West would, under any conceivable circumstances, invade Russia is ridiculous, and they know that as well as we do.

If you think nuclear war is on the table, than surely everything else is as well.

Sorry, I just now saw this point about invading Russia, so I'll add a comment here. Hope you don't mind.

I suspect that were we talking in the blessed 80s, someone would have said that "The idea that the West would, under any conceivable circumstances, invade the USSR is ridiculous." And yet, today — 40 years later — we have NATO military bases on the territory that used to be USSR, and NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine.

Did the West "invade" the USSR? Not in the same sense as the Axis invaded it in 1941 or the Napoleon's coalition invaded it in 1812. Yet, the result is more permanent.

What Russia is trying to prevent with its latest actions is having NATO troops stationed in Moscow 40 years later.

NATO is now in Kiev, one of our historical capitals, the spiritual center of our civilisation. I'm just stating facts, the actual outcomes, without any ideological colouring.

Hardly anyone plans expansion these days in the same terms as 100 years ago. Doesn't mean that the said expansion isn't happening.

[The Brain]

Russia's persecution complex is tiresome.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Russia's persecution complex is tiresome.

Survival complex, I'd say. You may also call it "besieged tower" complex.

[The Brain]

Russia's persecution complex is tiresome.

Survival complex, I'd say. You may also call it "besieged tower" complex.

Nah, I prefer the truth.

[Tamas]

Ok so the problem IS that we are talking past each other. For us "Russia" is the current borders of the state of Russia. For you and imagine most Russians "Russia" is the full extent of the Russian Empire (or USSR if you prefer the changed flag version).

It's ok, I know how that is, Hungary went through the same phase and it took utter and complete destruction of our homeland for most (far from all) people to let go of the idea. So I don't expect it will change much for Russians either in the next 100 years.

But also obviously the rest of the world shouldn't just sign off on peoples who want to be independent going back under the very unpleasant Russian thumb. This was tried with Germany and it failed quite completely.

[Solmyr]

I love how Berkut believes that Putin is this totally smart, logical, rational guy who only acts based on real facts that he somehow has complete access to. When in fact Putin is living in a bunker which none of his officials have access to unless they undergo a two week quarantine first, and does not use smartphones or the internet.

[Tamas]

So now that Gaijin has cemented my earlier fears that Russia may be in the same national psyche place that Germany was in the 1930s, what are the odds that the Belorussian-Russian training maneuvers announced are in fact preparation for a pincer move toward Kiev?

[Tamas]

Also to file under the question "Is Germany a Russian vassal state now?", the UK meticulously avoided German airspace when delivering AT missiles to Ukraine:

[The Brain]

Flak is often heavy over Berlin.

[Sheilbh]

Also to file under the question "Is Germany a Russian vassal state now?", the UK meticulously avoided German airspace when delivering AT missiles to Ukraine:

Apparently more flights today - it looks like back-to-back flights of anti-tank and other weapons/trainers who are also being deployed to the Ukrainian military. We also signed a big deal/loan on helping the Ukrainian navy rebuild and have now supplied one of the two minesweepers (decommissioned from the Royal Navy) we're sending - I think that was a fair bit ahead of schedule/moved very quickly.

I think the government's stance is right - and I liked the article by Ben Wallace, the Secretary of Defence:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/an-article-by-the-defence-secretary-on-the-situation-in-ukraine
I've seen it being picked up and getting a lot of attention online by politicians and journalists in Ukraine and Eastern Europe as a very good piece. It seems like Ukrainian and othe Eastern European politicians/journalists in Poland, the Baltics etc noticing what the UK's doing right now in making an argument about this, but also rushing to ship in material support. I've said before but over the last three months there's been Royal Navy port calls in the Baltic and Ukraine, there's been visits by the Foreign and Defence Secretaries to Kyiv, Warsaw, the Baltic states and Finland - it all looks pretty coordinated (and, especially for this government, competent) at trying to send a message to those allies and Ukraine, but also to the Kremlin.

Also striking is that it's an area of more or less consensus in the UK - so the shadow Foreign and Defence Secretaries were just on a trip to Ukraine. The Labour response to the government's statement on Ukraine last night was broadly supportive with some practical questions - a world away from where we'd be with Corbyn as leader.

The missing piece is properly cracking down on money-laundering/facilitating corruption which is essential. Tom Tugendhat has done a big piece on this and the Foreign Affairs Select Committee is launching an investigation into it so hopefully that leads to some reform as I think everyone recognises it's a problem.

But in "meanwhile in Germany" news - from the Guardian's Berlin correspondent:

Philip Oltermann
@philipoltermann
A taster of the debate on Russia-Ukraine in Germany: Matthias Platzeck, former Brandenburg state premier and chair of the German-Russian Forum, says on German TV that Russia and Germany "have to become more reliant on each other ... to make the peace more secure".

[The Brain]

Find someone who looks at you the way Germany and Russia look at Poland. :wistful: