The State of Affairs in Russia

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Imagine someone getting paid to troll Languish. 

Or the Paradox forums where many posters here (including me) come from... all the way back from 2002.

I do miss a lot of the "old" personalities. Tim, Count de Money, Korea, many others... hope they're all well.

Jimmy Olsen is Tim.

Oh, thank you! Didn't realise it.

[crazy canuck]

Imagine someone getting paid to troll Languish. 

Or the Paradox forums where many posters here (including me) come from... all the way back from 2002.

I do miss a lot of the "old" personalities. Tim, Count de Money, Korea, many others... hope they're all well.

Careful, you will now be accused of being a deep cover mole.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Careful, you will now be accused of being a deep cover mole.

Oh bummer. At this rate, the Major will have some "upskilling discussions" with me...

[Berkut]

I do think the "Oh you are just the mirror!" thing is kind of, well, amusing.

The reality is that Russia would never even cross American's minds if it wasn't for, well, Russia. It's just another country out there. Absent their rather incredible belligerence, they would not warrant any more attention then India or Argentina or Italy. Probably less.

This idea that American foreign thought and policy is centered on some nefarious plot to "get Russia" is kind of bemusing. If Russia wasn't so busy demanding to be noticed and invading their neighbors, nobody would care. Which maybe is the real problem.

As far as whether Gaijin is a Russian troll, that seems unlikely. Too obvious. Although I would probably find his viewpoint a lot more explicable if that were the case.

[Valmy]

Well certainly some of our projects could look like they were encroaching on Russia, like the whole 'Expand the EU and NATO to ALL of Europe!" Thing we were trying to do from about 1992 until 2005 or so. Obviously that happening was great for US interests but since Russia didn't end up wanting to get on that project it does kind of look like we were boxing them in. But that was not the intention, it was rather to establish security in Europe in a way that suited our interests. But hey isn't that kind of thing how all Great Power conflicts usually go? One country's seemingly reasonable security arrangements look like naked aggression to the other.

The main difference between Russian actions and US actions is at least we were trying to get the other countries to sign up voluntarily. Though why there is still a conflict I am not clear on...we are not really pushing the expanded NATO and EU thing anymore.

[Jacob]

There is a hint of genuine belief in that delusion, Russians have always genuinely believed that Americans are constantly thinking about them.  I think realizing that Americans truly don't give a shit about them unless they make themselves a nuisance is probably too much of an ego hit for them.

It's pretty universal I think. People generally assume the rest of the world is more aware and more interested in the things that are important where they are from. Danish people assume people care about the Danish system much more than people do. Americans from all sorts of places assume that things in their state capitals or whatever is something that matters elsewhere, and so on. New Yorkers think the rest of the world care much more about the things that happen in New York than people actually do. People typically have an inflated view of how they are seen in the rest of the world.

Basically what I'm saying is that you're right, but that lots of other folks have similar delusions of grandeur... though Russians of course have a fairly Russian flavoured version of it.

However, that genuine delusion has been professionally propagandized, and many Russians believe that CNN is actively conducting a campaign against Russia.  Why CNN?  Probably because the propaganda officials creating the talking points have been greatly impressed during their formative years by CNN's reputation in 1990ies, when many Russians were watching it to see the Russian tanks firing at the Parliament building, and they don't realize what an irrelevant joke it has become since then.

Makes sense.

[Berkut]

Well certainly some of our projects could look like they were encroaching on Russia, like the whole 'Expand the EU and NATO to ALL of Europe!" Thing we were trying to do from about 1992 until 2005 or so. Obviously that happening was great for US interests but since Russia didn't end up wanting to get on that project it does kind of look like we were boxing them in. But that was not the intention, it was rather to establish security in Europe in a way that suited our interests. But hey isn't that kind of thing how all Great Power conflicts usually go? One country's seemingly reasonable security arrangements look like naked aggression to the other.

The main difference between Russian actions and US actions is at least we were trying to get the other countries to sign up voluntarily. Though why there is still a conflict I am not clear on...we are not really pushing the expanded NATO and EU thing anymore.

I think the only way you can look at the expansion of NATO as "threatening" to Russia is if you insist on looking at Russian security from the eyes of the mid 20th century.

And while it is reasonable to look and note that historically, Russia was invaded twice from the West (well...once really, but from Russians perspective...) in the space of two generations....well, does anyone actually buy that as a credible threat, NOW?

I don't believe, quite frankly. I don't believe that even Russians look at NATO and think for a second that there is any real possibility or interest in the West to invade Russia ala 1941. The idea is just frankly ridiculous, and has been for a good 60 years.

Now, I do think they will say that that is their concern. The encroaching NATO! NATO troops in the Baltics! Our security is threatened!

But they don't actually believe it, just like Tucker Carlson doesn't *actually* believe the Jan. 6th insurrectionist where FBI plants. It's just a fig leaf, since saying they don't want the Baltics in NATO because they like bullying them, and having them join NATO makes that a lot harder isn't such a great justification for their outrage.

Gaijan doesn't actually believe that Russian security is threatened at all by Georgia, or Ukraine, or the Baltics, or even NATO, and neither does Putin.

What IS threatened by an independent Ukraine or an independent Georgia, or Baltic states in NATO is Russia's ability to threaten its neighbors and dominate what they see as the "Russian" sphere.

[PJL]

I don't believe, quite frankly. I don't believe that even Russians look at NATO and think for a second that there is any real possibility or interest in the West to invade Russia ala 1941. The idea is just frankly ridiculous and has been for a good 60 years.

Not sure I agree with you on that. For some 'Russia' includes a lot more than what it is now. Some of them would argue that NATO has already encroached upon Russia by accepting the Baltic States into their organisation for example.

[The Larch]

Ukraine hit by 'massive' cyber-attack on government websites
Suspected Russian hackers leave message warning: 'Ukrainians ... be afraid and expect worse'

Ukraine has been hit by a "massive" cyber-attack, with the websites of several government departments including the ministry of foreign affairs and the education ministry knocked out.

Officials said it was too early to draw any conclusions but they pointed to a "long record" of Russian cyber assaults against Ukraine, with the attack coming after security talks between Moscow and the US and its allies this week ended in stalemate.

Suspected Russian hackers left a message on the foreign ministry website, according to reports. It said: "Ukrainians! ... All information about you has become public. Be afraid and expect worse. It's your past, present and future."

The message reproduced the Ukrainian flag and map crossed out. It mentioned the Ukrainian insurgent army, or UPA, which fought against the Soviet Union during the second world war. There was also a reference to "historical land".

In a message to the Guardian, the foreign ministry's spokesperson, Oleg Nikolenko, said: "As a result of a massive cyber-attack, the website of the ministry of foreign affairs and other government agencies are temporarily down."

He added: "Our specialists have already started restoring the work of IT systems and the cyber-police has opened an investigation."

Nato's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg and Josep Borrell, the EU's top diplomat, condemned the attacks. Borrell said the EU's political and security committee and cyber units would meet to decide how to respond and to support Kyiv.

"We are going to mobilise all our resources to help Ukraine to tackle this. Sadly, we knew it could happen," he said. He added: "It's difficult to say [who is behind it]. I can't blame anybody as I have no proof. But we can imagine."

Stoltenberg said Nato and Ukraine would in the coming days sign an agreement on enhanced cyber cooperation. Kyiv would get access to Nato's malware information sharing platform, he said.

Sweden's foreign minister, Ann Linde, said the west must stand up to any Russian aggression. "We have to be very firm in our messages to Russia, that if there are attacks against Ukraine, we will be very harsh and very strong and robust in our response," she said. Sweden stood in solidarity with Kyiv, she added.

On Thursday, Russian envoys sounded a bleak note after discussions this week with the OSCE in Vienna, as well as Nato and the US. Sergei Ryabkov, who led Russia's delegation, said talks had hit a dead end.

The Kremlin has demanded an assurance Ukraine and Georgia will never join Nato. It wants Nato to remove troops and equipment from its member states in eastern Europe, and to return deployment to 1997 levels, before Nato expanded.

On Friday Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would not wait indefinitely for a response. "We have run out of patience," he said at a news conference. "The west has been driven by hubris and has exacerbated tensions in violation of its obligations and common sense."

Russia has mobilised 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and sent in military hardware. Its defence ministry announced that further equipment would be relocated from the east of the country as part of what it said was an "exercise".

Meanwhile, Moscow said it had carried out a special operation against the ransomware group REvil following a request from the US. The FSB spy agency which Vladimir Putin used to run said it had detained and charged the group's members.

The US embassy in Moscow had no immediate comment. But the move appears to be part of carrot and stick operation following the latest cyber-attack on Ukraine, designed to wrong-foot the Americans. Thus far, the Kremlin has made little effort to curb hacks on western targets by Russia-based cyber-criminals.

Ukraine has been repeatedly targeted since 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea and kickstarted a war in the eastern Donbas region. About 288,000 cyber-attacks took place in the first 10 months of 2021, according to official figures, with 397,000 in 2020.

The attacks have also been directed at critical infrastructure. In winter 2015 suspected Russian hackers took out parts of the country's power grid, which led to almost a quarter of a million Ukrainians losing power and heat. A repeat attack happened in 2016.

In 2017, suspected Russian hackers unleashed the NotPetya virus, causing mayhem. Banks, newspapers and leading companies were targeted.

Curiously enough, the message appears to have been written in Russian, Ukranian and Polish. I also wonder about the crossed out pig's head. 

[DGuller]

Probably a reference to salo, a slab of fat from a pig, which is a stereotypical Ukrainian food that Russians refer to when mocking Ukrainians.

[Razgovory]

No pigs, no vector graphics, no storm clouds. Seems harsh.

[Berkut]

I don't believe, quite frankly. I don't believe that even Russians look at NATO and think for a second that there is any real possibility or interest in the West to invade Russia ala 1941. The idea is just frankly ridiculous and has been for a good 60 years.

Not sure I agree with you on that. For some 'Russia' includes a lot more than what it is now. Some of them would argue that NATO has already encroached upon Russia by accepting the Baltic States into their organisation for example.

I think that's my argument.

I guess if you define Ukraine as Russia then it's isn't aggression at all to invade them.

[Jacob]

On the streets of Ukraine, there was growing resignation to the prospect of renewed fighting. Kyiv resident Ruslan Kavatsyuk, 39, said he saw the cyberattack as a "positive," since it would stiffen the resolve of the Ukrainian public.

"It reminds us that we live during military times, that Russia is an enemy who will kill us physically," he said.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-hacking-government-websites-1.6314821

[Solmyr]

I guess Gaijin de Moscu is one of the secret Russian operatives working in social media to further Russian propaganda. Funny how he suddenly re-appeared recently. I wonder why...

Damn. We are getting paranoid in our old age.

And hey even if he is, so what? What harm can he do here?

Languish is very important to Western strategic planning, you know.

[Solmyr]

I think the only way you can look at the expansion of NATO as "threatening" to Russia is if you insist on looking at Russian security from the eyes of the mid 20th century.

And while it is reasonable to look and note that historically, Russia was invaded twice from the West (well...once really, but from Russians perspective...) in the space of two generations....well, does anyone actually buy that as a credible threat, NOW?

People raised during the Cold War are currently running Russia. So yes, they totally do think like that.