The State of Affairs in Russia

[Gaijin de Moscu]

The conclusion is that "the Game," as you call it, is not worth playing.  The Russian conspiracy theory that they are victims of "the Game" will never end... just a part of life.

Yep, this theory is very popular in Russia. I don't think it's going to change.

Sorry I'm not engaging in an intelligent debate on this topic. Last day of vacation... I'm just binging out on French horror flicks, unable to engage my brain...

Meanwhile, in an interesting turn of events, Ukrainian (!) Security Forces prevented a Khasakh opposition member, based in Kiev, from coordinating the protests back in Kazakhstan. During the "conversation," the guy lost a few teeth. Link to the Ukrainian site, where the journalist sounds unsure how to report this, lol:

https://hromadske.ua/ru/amp/posts/kazahskie-aktivisty-v-ukraine-zayavili-chto-k-nim-prishli-sotrudniki-sbu-tam-obuyasnili-eto-proverka-v-ramkah-zakona

[Valmy]

The government providing free dental work? And they say Communism is dead in Eastern Europe.

[grumbler]

Yep, this theory is very popular in Russia. I don't think it's going to change.

Sorry I'm not engaging in an intelligent debate on this topic. Last day of vacation... I'm just binging out on French horror flicks, unable to engage my brain...

You are doing fine, as far as I am concerned.  I think you are reaching in some of the arguments, but the tone is pleasant and I enjoyed engaging with you.  Stick around.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

The government providing free dental work? And they say Communism is dead in Eastern Europe.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

You are doing fine, as far as I am concerned.  I think you are reaching in some of the arguments, but the tone is pleasant and I enjoyed engaging with you.  Stick around.

[Berkut]

Well, the government is reporting 164 dead in clashes. I guess that is no surprise since they ordered security forces to simply shoot first and ask questions later.

I am sure they are all terrorists though, so no worries.

[Tamas]

Putin's comment somewhere that Russian troops are in Kazakhstan only temporarily made me think, as it reminded me of how the "temporarily stationed" nature of Soviet troops in Hungary became a decades-long running joke. If we assume people are right that he is looking to reestablish the Russian Empire (I am skeptical as to the priority of that), maybe that's one of his angle here? Now he may have all the influence he needs to built a client dukedom in Kazakhstan.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think it's necessarily about re-establishing the Russian Empire either

I think the interesting thing is from what I've read Nazarbayev was one of Putin's favourite neighbouring rulers so it's interesting that even if you were best pals Russia would rather stability with the existing regime than necessarily back old, loyall clients - though I'm sure Nazarbayev's daughter will carry on on the board of GazProm and if Nazarbayev has left he'll live comfortably in Moscow. The other interesting angle is China because China's become Kazakhstan biggest trade partner, they have a lot of pipelines running through Kazakhstan and their influence had been growing - China has broadly backed the Russian actions and "restoring stability" as a priority. It's interesting that they're comfortable with Russia taking the lead and building more power in Kazakhstan and clearly don't feel threatened by that, or didn't feel they should be the ones to help there.

But I think that is exactly right that Putin is willing to back supportive regimes hold on to power with Russian force, in a way that erodes the local legitimacy of that regime which ties it even closer to Russia. I think we've seen that in Belarus, Syria and arguably Armenia (who now rely on Russian protection) and Azerbaijan (who now have Russian peacekeepers on their territory). With the possible exception of Syria these have been relatively low cost interventions by Russia but have closely tied those states to Moscow. A bit like the growing mercenary/quasi-state presence in Africa that is challenging the French in "their" Francafrique, it's low cost and delivering a decent return (from Russia's perspective).

[DGuller]

I wonder where China fits in this.  Obviously they're all for shooting protesters, but are they enthusiastic about Putin getting closer to Kazakhstan?  My understanding is that China itself had interests in it.

[Zanza]

I think China is currently turig inwards again, not that interested with Belt and Road etc. anymore as they have realized they can just buy influence and don't need more heavy-handed tactics - unlike Putin.

[Jacob]

Denmark is apparently sending a frigate and four fighter jets to Lithuania to patrol and mark the sovereignty of the Baltic countries, as part of an increase in NATO's presence there.

[Jacob]

I have to say that I enjoy how the allies are framing their current response...  working hard to deescalate the situation by imposing massive sanctions - within hours - if Russia invades.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-us-relations-deterrence-measures-against-russia-1.6309449

[Gaijin de Moscu]

The current negotiations in Geneva are not even about Ukraine.

The fact that the western mass media keep peddling the same old story about this "imminent invasion" and "massive sanctions" is telling.

[grumbler]

The current negotiations in Geneva are not even about Ukraine.

The fact that the western mass media keep peddling the same old story about this "imminent invasion" and "massive sanctions" is telling.

The fact that Russia's sympathizers continue to ignore the obvious threat posed by Russian military buildups on the border with Ukraine is telling.

The current negotiations in Geneva are about trying to keep the Russians from stumbling into a shooting war as Putin flails about trying to find "security."  The current "crisis" (if that is what it is, rather than Putin play-acting for his domestic audience) is 100% Putin's doing.  Issuing absurd demands isn't the way to gain anyone's respect, though it can gain attention.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Regardless of how "absurd" you personally believe the Russian demands are, they're not about Ukraine.

They're about the imperative need for all countries to follow the UN Charter.