The State of Affairs in Russia

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't think it is hysterical at all.

It's hysterical in that it takes Kremlin affiliated propaganda at face value.  Following a pattern from the Cold War where hardline anti-Russian polemicists end up sounding like rabid Russian nationalists in that they accept exaggerated accounts of Russian capabilities or intentions, perhaps better to scare their audience or perhaps because they are bamboozled themselves.  Putin's Russia c. 2021/2 is not Hitler's Germany c. 1938/9 in either capabilities or ultimate ambitions.  Russia is still an isolated, declining power.  It's also hysterical in assuming that the US and NATO are seriously contemplating a Munich-style capitulation, which is not remotely in the cards.

[Zanza]

Not sure - I can't find the original tweet. But I literally posted here, went to Twitter and saw a journalist doing a story on Scholz wanting a meeting

And in his defence I think almost every Western leader elected in the last 15 years or so has wanted to try a meeting with Putin to "reset" relations.

Scholz meeting Putin is just business as usual and does not in itself denote any kind of change in German-Russian relations. Merkel was in Moscow like twenty times during her tenure and met Putin elsewhere as well. That's more often than visits to London or Madrid...

[Sheilbh]

Scholz meeting Putin is just business as usual and does not in itself denote any kind of change in German-Russian relations. Merkel was in Moscow like twenty times during her tenure and met Putin elsewhere as well. That's more often than visits to London or Madrid...

Surely it's not business as usual when Russia's got thousands of troops in Ukraine? I think it's an issue if Putin gets the message from Germany that despite that, it is just business as usual.

Edit: And that's not to say Scholz should never meet Putin or go to Moscow. But why the rush to do it this month? Surely it's better to delay and coordinate with other allies (such as Poland and the Baltics etc) and go in a couple of months when, hopefully, this is all defused and calmed down.

[The Minsky Moment]

Russian successes in recent years have involved the use of indirect and shadow warfare capabilities - disguised special forces, proxy militias with drones and air/artillery support, information warfare. Piling up masses and infantry and armor on a border strikes me as an act of desperation, playing to Russian weaknesses instead of strengths.  I'm not saying there is zero risk to calling the bluff, but calling it puts Putin in a very tight spot - committing that kind of force to a real invasion would be extremely costly in every sense whereas NATO would have an array of options to deploy at any point on the escalatory chain of its choosing.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I think there needs to be an off-ramp as I think it's unlikely that they'd invade but if Russia's in (or feels it is in) a corner then I've no idea what would happen. It's why I'd probably try and engage on their proposed treaties but way down the food-chain and setting up some formal process for negotiations and talks. Basically a combination of playing for time and trying to defuse everything by bogging it down in lengthy negotiations on details.

Then you can go back to more business as usual referring to the "x process" - we've already got Minsk and Normandy so somewhere else.

[Berkut]

I don't think it is hysterical at all.

It's hysterical in that it takes Kremlin affiliated propaganda at face value.  Following a pattern from the Cold War where hardline anti-Russian polemicists end up sounding like rabid Russian nationalists in that they accept exaggerated accounts of Russian capabilities or intentions, perhaps better to scare their audience or perhaps because they are bamboozled themselves.  Putin's Russia c. 2021/2 is not Hitler's Germany c. 1938/9 in either capabilities or ultimate ambitions.  Russia is still an isolated, declining power.  It's also hysterical in assuming that the US and NATO are seriously contemplating a Munich-style capitulation, which is not remotely in the cards.

I don't think Chamberlain walked into Munich thinking he was going to engage in a Munich-style capitulation either.

[DGuller]

Putin's Russia may not be Hitler's Germany, but EU is not exactly Chamberlain's Britain either.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think Chamberlain walked into Munich thinking he was going to engage in a Munich-style capitulation either.

Total aside - but the new Netflix film (based on one of Robert Harris' novels I think), Munich looks very good. With Jeremy Irons as Chamberlain as a bit of a hero, which is, of course, exactly how he was seen at the time:
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/dec/15/hitler-chamberlain-munich-edge-reason-robert-harris-jeremy-irons

Obviously it's Harris so it's actually a spy thriller just set at the Munich Conference, but looks good - especially Irons.

[Berkut]

I don't think anyone in the West is thinking "OMG lets appease Putin just like Chamberlain did! That will surely work out!"

I do think there are plenty of people in the West who look at the entire problem first and foremost from the standpoint of "How do we de-escalate this situation?" and are willing to risk anything for what they imagine peace to be.

And more importantly, I think Putin and Russia believe that most of the West is more interested in peace at any cost, and are in fact counting on that.

Like I said, Chamberlain didn't hop on a plane and scuttle off the Munich in the middle of the night with the intent of kissing Hitlers ass and desperate to sell out anything. But he did enter the discussion with the idea that avoiding a war was more important then basically any other value, and Hitler knew that, and played him appropriately. (This all assumes that it wasn't just a delaying tactic on the part of Chamberlain who knew war was coming and felt like he needed time to get GB ready - personally, I don't believe that, but I do know it is a common interpretation).

Is Biden thinking that he should sell out to Putin? Of course not.

[Berkut]

I don't think Chamberlain walked into Munich thinking he was going to engage in a Munich-style capitulation either.

Total aside - but the new Netflix film (based on one of Robert Harris' novels I think), Munich looks very good. With Jeremy Irons as Chamberlain as a bit of a hero, which is, of course, exactly how he was seen at the time:
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/dec/15/hitler-chamberlain-munich-edge-reason-robert-harris-jeremy-irons

Obviously it's Harris so it's actually a spy thriller just set at the Munich Conference, but looks good - especially Irons.

I am looking forward to this....

[Zanza]

Scholz meeting Putin is just business as usual and does not in itself denote any kind of change in German-Russian relations. Merkel was in Moscow like twenty times during her tenure and met Putin elsewhere as well. That's more often than visits to London or Madrid...

Surely it's not business as usual when Russia's got thousands of troops in Ukraine? I think it's an issue if Putin gets the message from Germany that despite that, it is just business as usual.

Edit: And that's not to say Scholz should never meet Putin or go to Moscow. But why the rush to do it this month? Surely it's better to delay and coordinate with other allies (such as Poland and the Baltics etc) and go in a couple of months when, hopefully, this is all defused and calmed down.

The idea is that his visit contributes to defusing and calming down the situation. Germany also participated in previous talks between Russia and Ukraine, the so-called Normandy format. It is obviously urgent as there are signs of impending escalation, so waiting a couple of months does not seem sensible.

[The Brain]

The 1930s Western powers preferred to fight a Germany with millions of soldiers, modern planes, and modern tanks, over fighting a Germany with 100,000 soldiers and cardboard tanks. There was a lot of drugs in the 30s.

[The Minsky Moment]

I do think there are plenty of people in the West who look at the entire problem first and foremost from the standpoint of "How do we de-escalate this situation?" and are willing to risk anything for what they imagine peace to be.

The "West" is vague.  In the US of A, aside from maybe from a few diehard hippie peaceniks on the far left and the Putin cheerleaders in the true believer Trumpy right, the number of people "willing to risk anything for what they imagine peace to be" when it comes to the Russkies is a very small set.

[Jacob]

It doesn't look like Biden has caved to Putin quite yet. So I guess we wait for Russian soldiers to invade and/ or Russian missiles to start flying in preemptive strikes?

[Berkut]

It doesn't look like Biden has caved to Putin quite yet. So I guess we wait for Russian soldiers to invade and/ or Russian missiles to start flying in preemptive strikes?

That is what they are threatening. I don't think the article is claiming that is what they will actually do...