The State of Affairs in Russia

[Malthus]

Japan, Korea or the British would seem to be most in need of them and able to pay for them.

Heh, I read an interesting book about a similar case in the late 60s - France was building a bunch of missile boats for Israel; after the 6-Day War, France refused to deliver them for political reasons; the Israelis simply send some guys out and stole them. 

Well, not quite.  The Israeli crews were on board the boats from the get-go, and the responsible French authorities essentially allowed the boats to be "stolen," given that they had been paid for and completed (after all, the "company" that sent the crews on boat had only been formed about two weeks before it "bought" the craft).

It was a great Israeli victory, but not really as dashing as the smiley would indicate.

Do you have any source for the thesis that the French "allowed" the boats to be stolen?

Everything I have read indicates the contrary - that while the Israelis had some local French help in Cherbourg, the French authorities were, allegedly, caught flat-footed; and indeed, the Israeli action lead to a nasty rupture with France.

The front company feigned interest in the boats as potential survey ships for searching for oil, and declared that the boats' specifications met their needs. To add to the deception Limon pretended to have "tough negotiations" with Starboat. The terms agreed were that the boats would be transferred to Starboat and would be crewed by members of the Israeli Navy due to their experience with the boats. The boats were sold and transferred legally by the government of Israel to the front company with the approval of Michel Debré, the French minister of defence. This was the first part of the deception.

The next stage of the operation was to build a day-to-day routine with the aim of ultimately misleading the French at Cherbourg. The Israelis maintained a routine of short voyages, heading north into the Atlantic. Prior to the operation, the Israeli crews were reinforced. Israeli officers, ratings and sailors began to arrive in groups of two at different destinations throughout Europe as tourists, and then travelled to Cherbourg. It was feared that sending them all to Cherbourg at once would alert French intelligence. They were ordered to keep moving between hotels, and not to stay in any one hotel for more than one night. The crews traveled on Israeli passports so that in the event they were caught, they could not be charged with passport fraud. By 23 December, all crews had arrived, and were scattered around the city.[6]

To sustain an eight-day voyage at sea, the group's supply officer bought fresh and dry supplies from local grocery stores. To prevent arousing suspicion, the supplies were purchased in small quantities each time.[6]

Prior to the escape, the boats had to be fuelled with large amount of diesel. Loading this fuel in one fill would have alerted observers to the fact that a long voyage was planned. Commander Rinat, the head of operations, instead ordered the boats to be gradually fuelled using a small 5-ton tank truck. A quarter of a million litres of fuel was smuggled in drums and hidden belowdecks.[6] By 24 December, the boats had been fully fuelled and stored.

Since sudden engine noise during the night of the escape would alert the French, the operation's commander, Captain Hadar Kimhi, ordered the boats' engines to be regularly started at nights, causing the inhabitants of Cherbourg to become accustomed to the noise. The local police visited the boats in response to inhabitants' complaints, and received the explanations that the electrical supply from the shore was not enough to warm the boats during the cold days of December. The boats received an authorization from the electrical company and police to operate their engines at night. The noise was loud with 20 Maybach main engines running.

This is a wiki article, but the book "The Boats of Cherbourg" was much to the same effect.

I think the smiley is warranted.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherbourg_Project

French Defence Minister Michel Debré ordered an air strike to sink the boats. The French Chief of Staff refused to obey and replied he would resign rather than obey the order. The order was countermanded by Prime Minister Jacques Chaban-Delmas, who prevented any further escalation. Although the French government was furious, it realized that there was little that could be done, since the boats were already on the high seas when the ruse was uncovered. French Foreign Minister Maurice Schumann warned that if the boats appeared in Israel, "the consequences will be very grave indeed".

Here's the actual book: http://www.amazon.com/The-Boats-Cherbourg-Bluejacket-Books/dp/1557507147

[grumbler]

Do you have any source for the thesis that the French "allowed" the boats to be stolen?

Yes.  The company that bought the boats had been formed two weeks before the transaction.  The boats were entirely unsuited to the task nominally to be performed.  The Israeli cover story was thin, but enough to keep any of the local French from getting charged with treason.

Everything I have read indicates the contrary - that while the Israelis had some local French help in Cherbourg, the French authorities were, allegedly, caught flat-footed; and indeed, the Israeli action lead to a nasty rupture with France.

You read the data one way, I read it another.  Whatever.  The rupture was on a national level, and says nothing about the connivance of lower-level French officials.  The French were not some monolithic bloc all agreed on all policies.

[Duque de Bragança]

Interesting wikipedia conflict : French wikipedia supports Grumbler's thesis. It's also the view commonly held nowadays in France.

La première vedette est lancée le 11 avril 19672. Cinq de ces vedettes sont livrées avant l'embargo ; deux, en essais au moment de l'embargo, profitent de ces essais pour rallier Israël ; les cinq autres étant devenues indésirables dans l'arsenal, le vice-amiral Bouillaut, préfet de la 1re région maritime, les fait amarrer dans le port de commerce, dans une darse appartenant aux CMN, en face des bureaux de Félix Amiot. Hors du port militaire, leur évasion devient alors possible.

Une ruse est alors mise au point : une société d'apparence « norvégienne » (son représentant est Martin Siem (en)), la Starboat and Oil Drilling Company, créée à Panama pour la circonstance le 15 octobre 1969, demande à la France et à Israël de récupérer les vedettes car ces navires, sans armement, l'intéressent, prétendument pour faire de la recherche pétrolière en mer du Nord. L'État hébreu accepte d'autant plus facilement qu'il est à l'origine de la manœuvre par le biais de ses services secrets. Il fournit même les équipages. Dans la nuit du 24 au 25 décembre, vers 2 h du matin, les vedettes appareillent malgré le mauvais temps, avec à leur bord cent cinquante marins et officiers israéliens (ils travaillaient alors sur le chantier naval) supervisés par l'amiral Mordechai Limon, chef de la mission d'achat israélienne en France. Après avoir été ravitaillées deux fois en mer, elles arrivent triomphalement à Haïfa3, où elles sont accueillies par le ministre de la Défense Moshe Dayan le jour de l'An1.

Médiatisation[modifier | modifier le code]
L'affaire est révélée le vendredi 26 décembre 1969 par une dépêche de l'Agence centrale de presse (ACP), à l'initiative du journaliste de Cherbourg Guy Mabire de La Presse de la Manche dont le directeur, ami personnel de Félix Amiot, lui a interdit les jours précédents de révéler les tenants de l'affaire4. L'information connaît un retentissement mondial. Le ministre de la Défense, Michel Debré, pressé de trouver des responsables, sanctionne le vice-amiral Bouillaut (préfet maritime de Cherbourg), le général Cazelles (secrétaire général de la Défense nationale) et l'ingénieur général Bonte (directeur des affaires internationales à la délégation militaire pour l'armement), président et rapporteur la commission interministérielle pour l'étude des exportations de matériel de guerre (CIEEMG), chargée de garantir la régularité de ces exportations. Cela n'empêche pas la France d'être la risée des chancelleries5.

Selon l'historien Pierre Razoux, le Gouvernement français fut informé des intentions israéliennes par l'intermédiaire de ses services de renseignements, mais laissa faire (un tiers du paiement étant déjà fait, les deux tiers restants étant soldés simplement à la livraison, soit cinq milliards de francs, ce qui laissait la trésorerie des chantiers Amiot exsangue en cas de non livraison), saisissant ce prétexte pour officialiser des contrats d'armements préalablement conclus avec certains États arabes6.

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vedettes_de_Cherbourg

Executive summary

The boats were outside of the military port/French navy port to make the evasion possible.
The French goverment knew what was going on but let them escape. One third of the price was already paid, with the reminder two thirds to be paid on delivery. The Amiot yards were short on cash and could not pass on the payment.
French neutrality policy preserved, and the "outrage" about the event was used to confirm some previous military deals with Arab nations. Good publicity to Amiot yards which sold lots of boats the following years.
The source is Pierre Razoux, a prestigious historian, specialist of Near/Middle Eastern conflicts, http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Razoux
NATO college, French and British defense ministry, writes articles in the international press.

[Syt]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32588868

Russian WW2 parade: A tank-spotter's guide

Russia will stage its biggest ever military parade on 9 May, to mark the 70th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two.

A rehearsal in central Moscow has revealed some new hi-tech Russian armour for the first time, lifting a veil of military secrecy.

The most talked-about innovation is the Armata T-14 battle tank, described as a new-generation fighting machine to replace Soviet-era tanks.



The tank is highly automated - the Russian military says it could be the basis for a fully robotic tank in future.

It has a remote-control gun turret with a 125mm smooth-bore cannon that can fire guided missiles as well as shells.

The crew of three is housed in a reinforced capsule at the front, away from the firing systems.

The Armata's chassis is adaptable - it can also serve as the platform for a heavy infantry fighting vehicle, an engineering vehicle, a multiple rocket launcher and some other variants.



Russia plans to bring in about 2,300 Armatas, starting in 2020, to replace Soviet-era tanks. They are built by UralVagonZavod.

Jane's Defence Weekly says the T-14 and Russia's other new armoured systems are "principally clean-slate designs" that "represent the biggest change in Russia's armoured fighting vehicle families since the 1960s and 1970s".



Kurganets-25 mechanised infantry combat vehicle

The new Kurganets-25 comes in two main tracked variants - the BTR and BMP. Both are armoured personnel carriers, but the BMP has more powerful guns and firing systems.

The guns are remote-controlled and separated from the crew and infantry.

Jane's reports that the Kurganets-25 can be fitted with a 57mm or 30mm cannon.

The new design will replace the Russian army's Soviet-era BTRs and BMPs.



Boomerang armoured personnel carrier

This is another new infantry fighting vehicle, which also has amphibious capabilities.

The Boomerang chassis can also serve as a platform for other types of vehicle.

Jane's says the design is similar to Western eight-wheel drive military vehicles, known as 8x8. In such designs all eight wheels receive power from the engine simultaneously.

It is among the new vehicles highlighted by the Russian Defence Ministry on its website (in Russian).



RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile

The RS-24 began equipping Russia's strategic rocket forces in 2009. It is an improvement on the Topol M system.

The missile would deliver a nuclear warhead and would be fired either from a mobile launcher or a silo.

The missile has decoy systems to confuse an enemy's air defences.



Koalitsiya-SV self-propelled artillery

Koalitsiya-SV is a new self-propelled artillery system, said to be based on the Armata hull. It has a 152mm cannon and weighs about 55 tonnes.

The Russian Defence Ministry says the system can hit targets from as far as 70km (43 miles).

The weapon is designed to smash an enemy's armour and fortifications.



Buk surface-to-air missile launcher

The Buk air defence system on show in Moscow is among many variants already in service in the Russian military.

It has also been sold to several countries, including Azerbaijan, China and India.

A Buk missile was blamed for downing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014. Pro-Russian rebels are suspected of having fired the missile, as they had targeted Ukrainian military jets in the same area previously. All 298 people on board MH17 died. Russian and rebel officials rejected the allegations, arguing that a Ukrainian fighter jet was probably to blame.

Buk missile launchers are accompanied by radar vehicles. The missile can reach a maximum altitude of 25,000m (82,500ft), and can intercept cruise missiles as well as aircraft.



Kornet-D anti-tank rocket system

Russia has improved on the Kornet anti-tank system introduced in 2009.

The rockets can target not only tanks but also aircraft, the Russian Defence Ministry says. They can pierce armour plating 130cm (4ft) thick.

The targeting and guidance systems use high-resolution TV cameras, infra-red and laser technology.

[Syt]

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-new-armata-tank-appears-to-break-down-during-victory-day-rehearsals/520324.html

Russia's New Armata Tank Seems to Break Down During Parade Rehearsals

One of Russia's brand new Armata T-14 heavy battle tanks, which are said to be the finest tanks in the world, appeared to break down on Red Square Thursday during rehearsals for Moscow's Victory Day Parade, media reports said.



The Armata is Russia's next-generation main battle tank, and is reported to feature a remote controlled turret and armor heavier than previous Soviet-designed tanks. The new armored vehicles will be publicly paraded Saturday in celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany.

Practicing for its Saturday debut, one of the new tanks unexpectedly slowed to a halt right in front of the famous GUM department store on Red Square. The engine could be heard rumbling, but the tank would not move, the Associated Press reported.

Attempts to tow the tank as the rest of the armored columns passed by failed, but according to local newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets, the tank began to move under its own power after the parade passed through the square.

"We have demonstrated how the evacuation of military hardware [during battle] will be conducted," the newspaper quoted the parade's announcer as saying. "The tank's stop was planned."

РОФЛ

[Razgovory]

I wonder if the tanks are real, and not just mild steel mock ups.

[Syt]

Potemkin's Tanks.

[Admiral Yi]

Would have been totally badass to paint a plane sillouette on the side of one of those BUKs. 

[grumbler]

Would have been totally badass to paint a plane Boeing 777-200ER sillouette on the side of one of those BUKs. 

Fixed

[Syt]

http://rt.com/politics/257753-russia-us-poll-threat/

60% of Russians see US as threat & hindrance to development - poll

Over half of Russians think the United States poses a threat to their country and will create barriers for Russia's economic development, but only 5 percent thought the US could defeat Russia in an all-out war.

The share of Russians who perceive the United States as a general threat is 59 percent, according to the latest research released by the independent pollster Levada Center on Tuesday. This is up from 47 percent in 2007. The share of Russians who don't see any threat coming from the US is 32 percent now as opposed to 42 percent in 2007.

When asked to elaborate on the possible nature of Russia-US antagonism, 48 percent said the United States was purposefully creating various barriers in order to hinder Russia's development. Thirty-one percent said they feared a US military invasion on Russian territory and 31 percent thought the US was imposing alien ideas and values on their country through non-military means. Only 24 percent of respondents said they feared the US could impose direct control over Russia's political course.

When Russians were asked what their expectations were in case of a real military conflict with the United States, 52 percent said that it would end in mutual annihilation. A third answered they thought Russia would win this war and only 5 percent said they expected the United States and NATO to defeat Russia.

At the same time, the majority of Russians – 55 percent - said they didn't expect their country to be the first to use nuclear weapons, even in the case of war with the US and NATO (13 percent completely ruled out such possibility and 42 percent said such a development was extremely unlikely).Seven percent said that this was possible.

Levada Center's leading researcher Karina Pipiya said in comments to Izvestia daily that the shift in public moods was due to the spreading of the idea that Russia historically follows its own path of development. Such a position is now shared by the Russian authorities and general public. Therefore, most Russians blame any attempts to counter their country's course in foreign and domestic policy as a move aimed as containing and weakening Russia's influence and strength, Pipiya said.

The researcher noted that a different recent poll showed that 57 percent of Russians believe the authorities shouldn't pay any attention to criticism from the West.

In April, the Levada Center conducted a poll that showed 55 percent of Russians want their homeland to pursue its own way of development and only 17 percent think Russia should take the same path as Western nations. Nineteen percent of respondents said Russia should return to the ways of the Soviet Union.

Twelve percent tend to the view that Russia will join "the path of great Eastern nations," like China and India.

[Valmy]

Ceaseless propaganda works!

[The Minsky Moment]

the spreading of the idea that Russia historically follows its own path of development.

True.
Unfortunately, it's a crappy one.

[KRonn]

Russia has new tanks, should be no surprise. Seems the normal flow of things, eh?   

[Tonitrus]

I know there was a post some time back about Putin defending the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.  He has done it again, this time it sounds like he is essentially saying that the conditions that caused the SU to sign the back in the day are similar to the situation Russia is in now. 

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-defends-ribbentrop-molotov-pact-in-press-conference-with-merkel/520513.html?utm_source=email_tmt-editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20150512_weekly&utm_content=title_5

Putin Defends Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact in Press Conference with Merkel
By Anna DolgovMay. 11 2015 11:22 Last edited 11:22


Russian President Vladimir Putin defended 1939's Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany as Moscow's response to being isolated and having its peace efforts snubbed by Western nations.

At the close of his Sunday meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Moscow — a day after Russian held grand-scale celebrations of the allied victory in World War II — Putin offered a lengthy defense of the controversial agreement that led to the carving up of Eastern Europe.

"The Soviet Union made massive efforts to lay the groundwork for a collective resistance to Nazism in Germany, made repeated attempts to create an anti-fascist bloc in Europe. All of these attempts failed," Putin told journalists at a joint news conference with Merkel, according to a transcript released by the Kremlin.

"And when the Soviet Union realized that it was being left one-on-one with Hitler's Germany, it took steps to avoid a direct confrontation, and the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was signed," Putin said.

Merkel offered a diplomatically phrased objection, telling the joint news conference that the "Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is difficult to understand without considering the additional secret protocol. With that in mind, I think it was wrong, it was done illegally," she said, according to the Kremlin's Russian-language transcript.

The secret protocol, which accompanied what was officially presented as a non-aggression treaty, divided up the territories of Poland, Romania, the Baltic nations and Finland into German and Soviet "spheres of influence." It led to the German and Soviet invasions of Poland, and to the Soviet annexation of the three Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — and parts of Romania.

Putin's defense of the pact comes after Moscow's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine last year, and amid Eastern European countries' concerns their territories could be seized next.

Poland's President Bronislaw Komorowski described this weekend's Victory Day parade in Moscow as a "demonstration of force," The New York Times reported.

Polish Foreign Minister Grzegorz Schetyna said that the end of World War II should not be celebrated in Russia because it was among the countries where it originated, the report said.

Putin's recent remarks mark a sharp about-face from his comments a few years earlier.

During a visit to Poland in 2009, Putin, then prime minister, denounced the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact as a "collusion to solve one's problems at others' expense."

"All attempts between 1934 and 1939 to pacify the Nazis by making various kinds of agreements and pacts with them, were unacceptable from the moral point of view, and from the political point of view were pointless, harmful and dangerous," Putin said in 2009 during a visit to Poland's Gdansk, according to a transcript posted on the Russian Cabinet website.

But amid Western sanctions against Moscow for its annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin has shifted to an increasing glorification of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin and his regime's pact with Nazi Germany.
Putin said last November that the pact was not so bad.

"The Soviet Union signed a non-aggression treaty with Germany," he told a meeting with historians. "They say: Oh, this is so bad. But what's so bad about it if the Soviet Union did not want to go to war? What's so bad about it?"

Following his speech, Russia's Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky in the run-up to this year's Victory Day celebrations praised the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact as a "colossal achievement of Stalin's diplomacy." 

[Syt]

http://rt.com/politics/257821-russia-china-challenges-military/

Moscow, Beijing will seek reconstruction of current world order together - deputy DM

Military cooperation between Russia and China will be aimed against mono-polar world and double standards, the Russian deputy defense minister told reporters after talks with a Chinese official.

"Our Chinese colleagues have emphasized that we have similar positions on the problem of challenges and threats. They noted the necessity of reconstruction of the current world order, moving away from double standards and strengthening of equal and mutually profitable relations between all countries in the world," General Anatoly Antonov said after talks between Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and the deputy chairman of China's Central Military Council General, Fan Changlong.

Antonov said that the two military officials agreed that Russia and China will conduct naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea and Sea of Japan in the nearest future. He noted that last year's exercises in the East China Sea yielded "practical results," as did the ground training of Russia and China forces within the framework of the 'Pace Mission 2014' exercises in northern China.

Antonov said the two nations would prioritize the coordinated position on the global missile defense program.

He also told reporters that the Chinese delegation was taken on a tour on Russia's newest top-security, fortified facility in Moscow dubbed the "wartime government HQ."

The talks between Russian and Chinese defense officials came just days after the Moscow summit of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during which the sides signed a decree on cooperation in tying the development of the Eurasian Economic Union with the 'Silk Road' economic project.

In subsequent press comments Putin labeled the integration of the Eurasian Economic Union and Silk Road projects as "a new level of partnership" and noted that it was implying the common economic space on the whole continent of Eurasia.