Could the right split?

[Sheilbh]

Couple of interesting articles on the UKIP threat to the Tories:

Why Ukip could be a true scourge of the Tory Party
AMOL RAJAN    THURSDAY 17 NOVEMBER 2011

In his seminal book The Progressive Dilemma, the historian David Marquand lamented the splitting of the centre-left vote in Britain.

The existence of both the Liberal Party (later the Liberal Democrats) and Labour had ripped asunder the country's centre-left majority, bequeathing a Tory-dominated 20th century.

This split was painfully evident during the recent referendum on electoral reform. Though Labour joined the Lib Dems in proposing a switch to the alternative vote, a seemingly endless procession of Labour dinosaurs made the conservative case for retaining the current system. This was probably crucial in dashing hopes for change.

Marquand's analysis is right about the past century. Three-party politics scarred the centre-left. What's interesting about Westminster's current configuration is that four-party politics is on the way, and will probably scar the centre-right.

Ukip – a "libertarian, non-racist party seeking Britain's withdrawal from the European Union" – is the product of civil war in British conservatism during the 1980s, one victim of which was Margaret Thatcher's reign as Prime Minister.

Europe divided Thatcher's Tory Party into a soft, modernising faction and a harder, resistant one. The modernisers won the Tory Party. The resistant bunch deserted it. As the writer Peter Oborne put it recently, "Ukip is in reality the Conservative Party in exile". That is one reason why it now regularly achieves 7 per cent in national polls.

Ukip has policies far beyond Europe, and its members are generally patriotic, pinstriped types. Their views on immigration are stupid and myopic, but that is true of much of the public. As the whole European federalist project disintegrates, Ukip will appear prescient, and voters will give them credit.

This will damage the Tories in two ways. First, by depriving them of crucial votes in marginal constituencies; and second, by pulling the Tories away from the centre ground, where elections are won.

It follows that anyone who thinks of themselves as centre-Left, including all Labour and Lib Dem voters, has an enormous incentive to strengthen and promote Ukip. I have a feeling that, disgruntled at the manner of his departure from the Cabinet and the tedium of backbench life, Liam Fox might fancy switching to Ukip if offered its leadership.

Though barely noticed, the progressive dilemma has acquired a tenacious sibling across the political divide. In the 21st century, the conservative dilemma will be disastrous for conservatism.

And from the quite influential Tory blog, ConservativeHome:

Cameron's ratings have collapsed, UKIP could cost the Tories 30 seats... but there is SOME good news in the opinion polls

By Tim Montgomerie
Follow Tim on Twitter

I won't comment here on the biggest poll of the weekend - over at Majority Conservatism Paul Goodman provides a comprehensive review of Lord Ashcroft's mega poll on the political attitudes of ethnic minority Britons.

The more regular opinion polls are not good for the Conservative Party. I summarise them within today's newslinks (scroll down this page). In today's Sunday Times (£) Peter Kellner of YouGov makes for gloomy reading:
"The Prime Minister is no longer a clear asset to his party. Immediately before the Budget, 44% thought he was doing well, while 49% thought he was doing badly. His net rating, minus 5, was pretty good for a Prime Minister in mid-term. Now his rating is minus 31 (well 32%, badly 63%). Only Gordon Brown can match such a collapse in popularity, when he scrapped plans to hold a snap election in October 2007. It is not a happy precedent."

Here's how respondents to the latest YouGov poll rate Cameron (PDF):
42% see the PM as competent, 47% as incompetent (-5%);
41% see him as strong and 44% as weak (-3%);
42% as likeable and 46% as dislikeable (-4%);
39% say he's in control of his government and 47% say not (-8%);
23% see him as in touch, 69% as out-of-touch (-46%);
76% say Cameron doesn't understand how ordinary people live and most of this group say it's because of his privileged background (50%) rather than other factors (26%).

Mr Kellner focuses on the threat that UKIP poses to the Tories. Noting that, as of today, UKIP is 10% in the latest YouGov survey and 1.4 million former Tories have transferred to the party, he proposes a scenario where they could "crucify" the Tories:
"Suppose the economy continues in the doldrums. Suppose Cameron's ratings stay on the floor. In 2014, a year before the next general election, Europe's voters will decide who represents them in the European Parliament. Voting will take place under a proportional system that helps smaller parties – and the anti-EU UKIP most of all. Last time, in 2009, it came second, ahead of Labour. Unless the Tories recover, I would not bet heavily against UKIP topping the poll in 2014, or coming close... UKIP would have the credibility it has always craved. Under our first-past-the-post system for electing MPs, it might end up with too few votes to win many seats for itself – but quite enough to scupper the Tories. Suppose it wins over just 2,000-3,000 unhappy Tories in each of the key marginals. This kind of division on the Right would be enough to cost Cameron up to thirty seats, and hand victory to Ed Miliband. If the shift to UKIP is much greater, Labour could win by a landslide."[/i]

The YouGov survey isn't ALL bad for the Conservatives, however:
By 36% to 28% David Cameron and George Osborne are more trusted to run the economy than Ed Miliband and Ed Balls;
By 54% to 27% voters accept that "big" spending cuts are necessary and would be being implemented whoever was in power;
Only 32% blame the current government for the double dip recession - 29% blame global factors including the Eurozone, 17% blame the last Labour government's legacy and 10% blame the banks for not lending enough.

I don't think that last point is nearly as good as they hope.  But I think UKIP could be a real threat to the Tories this time. Interestingly there's also lots of rumours that there's a couple of Tory MPs thinking of defecting

I can't help but think of what BB was saying about Reform and the PC.

[Valmy]

Their views on immigration are stupid and myopic

Being described as libertarian I guess they want removal of limits on immigration?

[Sheilbh]

Their views on immigration are stupid and myopic

Being described as libertarian I guess they want removal of limits on immigration?

  In no way.  They want a five year freeze on immigration.  Then, obviously, they'd pull out of the EU so no more free movement of labour.  Lots of other restrictions too. 

The key to their immigration platform in that sentence isn't 'libertarian' but 'non-racist'.

[Valmy]

  In no way.  They want a five year freeze on immigration.  Then, obviously, they'd pull out of the EU so no more free movement of labour.  Lots of other restrictions too. 

The key to their immigration platform in that sentence isn't 'libertarian' but 'non-racist'.

Oh.  That is about as far away from libertarian you can be on immigration.  Why are they called libertarians?  Or I guess that is a self-label?

And I guess since they are against Europeans moving to Blighty they are non-racist?

[Gups]

UKIP will hurt the Tories (as the Referendum party did in 1997) but it won't be a genuine split unless they get some serious politicians defecting.

When it comes to a general election, especially one that seems close, much of UKIP's support will revert to the Tories.

[Valmy]

Because I guess right wingers do not want to see Labour win?

What is it about the Liberal Democrats that makes center lefty voters willing to see the Tories win then abandon their party?

[Gups]

  In no way.  They want a five year freeze on immigration.  Then, obviously, they'd pull out of the EU so no more free movement of labour.  Lots of other restrictions too. 

The key to their immigration platform in that sentence isn't 'libertarian' but 'non-racist'.

Oh.  That is about as far away from libertarian you can be on immigration.  Why are they called libertarians?  Or I guess that is a self-label?

It's self-labelling. Apart from some flannel about a bonfire of reguilations, they don't have any liberterian policies.

If you can imagine the current centre of the Republican party minus the religion and the guns, that's the kind of people we are talking about.

The biggesst opportunity for them derives from the phone hacking scandal. Murdoch and the Daily Mail now hate the Tories so much that they may well push had for UKIP.

[Gups]

Because I guess right wingers do not want to see Labour win?

What is it about the Liberal Democrats that makes center lefty voters willing to see the Tories win then abandon their party?

Lib Dem acticists are generally centre-left. Lib Dem voters are not so easily labelled. In their traditional areas of support in the west country they remain the party of non-conformists while the Tories are church of England.

[derspiess]

Their views on immigration are stupid and myopic

Being described as libertarian I guess they want removal of limits on immigration?

There is a "Libertarianism in one country" school of libertarian thought that tends to be pretty strict on border issues.

[Sheilbh]

Oh.  That is about as far away from libertarian you can be on immigration.  Why are they called libertarians?  Or I guess that is a self-label?

Given the quotation marks I'd guess that's self-description.

And I guess since they are against Europeans moving to Blighty they are non-racist?

I think it's more that you should worry when a political party has to say they're not racist

What is it about the Liberal Democrats that makes center lefty voters willing to see the Tories win then abandon their party?

I think a lot of it's tactical voting.  There aren't many Lib Dem seats that Labour would ever win.  Their core vote is the well-meaning middle class (and Celts, for some reason) so they do well in different types of seats.  In university seats they genuinely compete with Labour, apart from that their competition is really the Tories. 

It'll be interesting to see what happens to the Lib Dem (and Tory) vote, after coalition.  A lot of tactical Lib Dem voters will realise they've allowed a Tory government and lots of Tory voters I think are unhappy with the coalition and Cameron.

[Sheilbh]

The biggesst opportunity for them derives from the phone hacking scandal. Murdoch and the Daily Mail now hate the Tories so much that they may well push had for UKIP.

All of the Tory press seem to hate Cameron.  The only support he seems to get is from the Times and that could go.

But UKIP you're right they really need some credible defections, a gang of four that wants more extreme policies.

[Richard Hakluyt]

If the current Conservatives are the "right" and the current Labour party the "left" then I would imagine that both parties are vulnerable to outflanking movements. Unless there are dramatic changes I think we can expect new lows in the share of the electorate voting for each of those two parties at the next General Election. As the saying has it, they are both cheeks of the same arse and the libdems are the nasty bit in the middle.

[Valmy]

All of the Tory press seem to hate Cameron.  The only support he seems to get is from the Times and that could go.

But UKIP you're right they really need some credible defections, a gang of four that wants more extreme policies.

Man the Prime Minister-ship seems to be political suicide these days.

[CountDeMoney]

Man the Prime Minister-ship seems to be political suicide these days.

Well, his adoption of the House Republican budget has really put them in a bind over there.