From The Stomach To The Streets ?

[mongers]

I came across some figures for consumer price indexes and food price indexes by country and it prompted this question, how much can you explain recent unrest in terms of rising prices, and more specifically does it go beyond anecdotal evidence and can one demonstrate some form of statistical causal link ?

I got the figures from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation here:
http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-publications/ess-yearbook/ess-yearbook2010/yearbook2010-prices/en/

Here's some of the results for Consumer Food Indexes (with yr 2000=100) these are the most recent figures and are 2009 unless stated otherwise:

China - 152.8  (2008)

Egypt - 188.1

France - 120.4

Germany - 116.8

Greece -  135.1

Hungary - 185.7

Ireland - 119.2

India - 173.0  !

Japan - 101.9

Kenya - 315.9 (2008)

Myanmar/ Burma - 638.3 (2008)

Nigeria - 309.6

Pakistan - 229.6

Portugal - 116.9

Roumania - 260.1

Russia - 274.6  (2008)

Saudi Arabia - 138.3 (2008)

Spain - 132.0

Sweden - 119.2

Syria - 182.2

Thailand - 145.6

Tunisia - 138.3

Ukraine - 273.9

United Kingdom - 131.8

USA - 127.6  (2008)

Venezuela - 958.3

Yemen - 323.2 (2008)


You can deducted 100 from the figure to get the percentage increase over 9 years and that way the food inflation figures are clearer, but I figured most Languishites can get their heads around indexes.


Iran is a special case as it appears their indexes have either been reset or the government has massively increased food subsidies here's the figures in full.

2005       2006      2007      2008       2009
186.3   205.5   100.0   131.0   146.5

[Warspite]

Drawing statistical causal relationships in conflict studies is a mug's game, but it is fair to say that rising food prices tend to be corellated with instability.

[Josquius]

Well, certainly unemployment was a huge, if not the biggest, motivating factor behind the Arab revolts. And I guess rising food prices could make that long term problem bubble over

[mongers]

Drawing statistical causal relationships in conflict studies is a mug's game, but it is fair to say that rising food prices tend to be corellated with instability.

So what's the probability that the 2nd part of you answer is in conflict with the first ?