The Wider Middle East War in 2012 ?

[alfred russel]

I will say you are the most persuasive anti-war advocate I have ever seen.

Whoohoo.

[Ideologue]

"We've already won!" is a much better argument than the "We have no right to be there/no blood for oil/Bush lied, people died/we can't win/fascism is okay as long as it's somewhere else" variety of arguments.

[mongers]

"We've already won!" is a much better argument than the "We have no right to be there/no blood for oil/Bush lied, people died/we can't win/fascism is okay as long as it's somewhere else" variety of arguments.

Well to my mind, you're missing the most important yardstick, namely was if worth all of that imperial treasure ?

[alfred russel]

Well to my mind, you're missing the most important yardstick, namely was if worth all of that imperial treasure ?

With that yardstick, not many wars would have a winner.

[Hansmeister]

No, everybody hates Iran outside Syria and Hezbollah.  And Hezbollah would be quickly crushed if it started anything, while Syria has its own problems right now.  It is also questionable whether Hezbollah will start anything right now since with the fall of the Syrian government seemingly more likely every day, Hezbollah will be quite isolated in the region.  A war with Israel would deplete their resources and they can't be certain they'll be able to rebuild afterwards.

It is the populist revolutions in the Middle East which are far more likely to result in a wider war.

And as far as Afghanistan, yeah, we're pretty much screwed.

[Josquius]

One key country is led by netanyahu, another by ahmadinejad. I'm confident no one will do anything stupid and rash.

Well I was considering the US and Israel as acting as one, so assuming the tail doesn't wag the dog, one would guess Obama might be a moderating influence, but then again it is election year. 

If Israel rings up Washington and says, "we're going to bomb Tehran tomorrow, you in?" Obama is in quite an election year quandry. Join in, and you are being dragged into a stupid war. Sit it out, and much of our electorate goes crazy that you are abandoning Israel trying to save itself from a madman, probably because you are a secret muslim.

This is quite a turnaround from the previous administration, when we had the leader dragging the saner portions of the world into stupid wars.

I dunno, it wouldn't really be abandoning Israel, its not like they need the help.

[Hansmeister]

One key country is led by netanyahu, another by ahmadinejad. I'm confident no one will do anything stupid and rash.

Well I was considering the US and Israel as acting as one, so assuming the tail doesn't wag the dog, one would guess Obama might be a moderating influence, but then again it is election year. 

If Israel rings up Washington and says, "we're going to bomb Tehran tomorrow, you in?" Obama is in quite an election year quandry. Join in, and you are being dragged into a stupid war. Sit it out, and much of our electorate goes crazy that you are abandoning Israel trying to save itself from a madman, probably because you are a secret muslim.

This is quite a turnaround from the previous administration, when we had the leader dragging the saner portions of the world into stupid wars.

Obama has been hostile towards Israel since his election, which puts him in synch with his base and it doesn't seem to hurt him with liberal jews who apparently have lost interest in Israel.  In the end Obama is probably going to be irrelevant to the debate.

[CountDeMoney]

Well I was considering the US and Israel as acting as one, so assuming the tail doesn't wag the dog

Like we have any control over what they do.  And they are certain not our tail.
That's such a European assumption. You've obviously been British too long.

Europeans and their antisemitism. 

[Tamas]

Well I was considering the US and Israel as acting as one, so assuming the tail doesn't wag the dog

Like we have any control over what they do.  And they are certain not our tail.
That's such a European assumption. You've obviously been British too long.

Europeans and their antisemitism. 

Excuse me, but when it comes to European views on the US and Israel and the dog-tail metaphor, the US is not exacty the dog...

[Eddie Teach]

People claiming that Israel controls the US reinforce his point about the anti-semitism though.

[Tamas]

People claiming that Israel controls the US reinforce his point about the anti-semitism though.

Yes

[Razgovory]

Obama has been hostile towards Israel since his election, which puts him in synch with his base and it doesn't seem to hurt him with liberal jews who apparently have lost interest in Israel.  In the end Obama is probably going to be irrelevant to the debate.

Hostile in a peculiar way.  Your predictions are always so damn robust anyway.  I remember back 2005 when were predicting the dissolution of the Democratic Party.

Besides Israel has acting stupid lately.  What they need is a friend who is willing to tell them to quit fucking things up.  For instance, don't publicly humiliate the the Turkish ambassador.

[jimmy olsen]

Looks like the violence is spilling over into Lebanon and western Iraq.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46363845/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.Tzje4vkU-Xs

For Iraqis, aid to rebels in Syria repays a debt
Intensifying violence suggests that Assad's government faces antagonists across its borders

FALLUJA, Iraq — Not so long ago, Syrians worked to send weapons and fighters into Iraq to help Sunnis fighting a sectarian conflict; suddenly, it is the other way around.

A belated celebration of the Prophet Muhammad's birthday on the outskirts of this western Iraqi city on Saturday quickly took on the trappings of a rally for Syria's rebels. Young boys waved the old green, black and white flag Syria adopted in the 1930s after declaring independence from the French. Others collected money to send aid and weapons to the fighters opposing President Bashar al-Assad's government across the border.

"I wish I could go there with my gun and fight," said Sheik Hamid al-Hais, a tribal leader interviewed at his compound in Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province.

Regional conflict
It is increasingly clear that Syria's sectarian war is becoming the regional conflict that analysts have long feared. The rush of recent events — including bombings and assassinations in Damascus and Aleppo, and intensifying violence in northern Lebanon coming directly out of the sectarian hostilities in Syria — suggest that the Assad government now also faces antagonists across its borders.

Like Iraq and Afghanistan before it, analysts say, Syria is likely to become the training ground for a new era of international conflict, and jihadists are already signing up. This weekend, Al Qaeda's ideological leadership and, more troublingly, the more mainstream Jordanian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, called for jihadists around the world to fight Mr. Assad's government.

Nowhere is the cross-border nature of sectarian hostilities more clear than in Iraq's western desert, where Sunni Arabs are beginning to rally to the cause of the Syrian opposition and, in the process, perhaps strengthen their hand in dealings with an antagonistic Shiite-led national government in Baghdad.

A weapons dealer who operates in Anbar, who said he goes by the alias Ahmed al-Masri, said, "Five months ago I was told that the Syrian brothers are in need of weapons. I started to buy the weapons from the same guys that I previously sold to — the fighters of Anbar and Mosul. I used to bring them from Syria; now it's the other way around."
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Story: Arab League wants UN peacekeepers in Syria

The man said he was selling mortars, grenades and rifles, and that his contact in Syria was also an Iraqi. In some instances, he said Iraqis were giving away weapons, and in those cases he charged money only to transport them across the border.

"It's a good business, but it's not easy money," he said. "It's risky, but this is life."

Tribal leaders and security officials describe a small but increasing flow of weapons to Syria from Anbar Province and areas around Mosul, the northern city that is a headquarters for Al Qaeda in Iraq. For some weapons smugglers the price of an automatic rifle has increased dramatically — to $2,000 from about $300, according to one account.

Abdul Rahim al-Shammari, the head of the provincial council's security committee in Mosul, said explosives and weapons were being smuggled through the border village of Rabia. A weapons trader in the area, who spoke anonymously because of the nature of his work, described smuggling weapons parts in empty cigarette cartons and said he recently made a $4,000 profit selling a PKC rifle. Across the border, he said, some Syrians were trading sheep and cows for weapons.

The sympathies for the Syrian rebels here in Anbar are borne from centuries-old tribal connections and, as a region dominated by Sunni Arabs, a shared sect.

"We have common tribes and a common border," said Sheik Ali Hatem al-Suleiman, interviewed recently at his mansion in Baghdad, where he keeps a pet lion penned in the front yard. Mr. Hatem described Mr. Assad as a "butcher" and said that men in Anbar, his ancestral home, were already trying to help the opposition. "Yes, they are giving weapons. They have to," he said, adding that Anbar tribal leaders were to meet this week to discuss ways to support the rebels.

Support from Al Qaeda
Meanwhile, Al Qaeda in Iraq, whose membership has declined substantially in recent years, is trying to take advantage of the violence in Syria. A recent report by the McClatchy news agency quoted unidentified American officials as saying that Al Qaeda in Iraq was behind two deadly bombings in Damascus and probably also the bombing on Friday in Aleppo. In interviews, American officials in Baghdad said they believed that was likely, but had no evidence to confirm it.

On Saturday, Ayman al-Zawahri, the ideological leader of Al Qaeda worldwide, issued a statement urging Muslims in the region — he specifically mentioned Iraq — to support the uprising, according to the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors jihadist communications.

In Jordan, the influential Muslim Brotherhood issued a call to arms of its own, calling it a duty for Muslims everywhere to oppose Mr. Assad's government in Syria in a holy war, using any means necessary. "Supporting the Syrian people and Free Syrian Army is a duty, as they are facing the injustice and oppression of the regime," the group said on its Web site.

On its Web site, Al Qaeda in Iraq, also referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq, has stated, "a lot of Syrians fought side-by-side with the Islamic State of Iraq, and it is good news to hear about the arrival of Iraqi fighters to fight with their brethren in Syria." The group has also advised Syrian rebels to use the type of roadside bombs that proved so deadly in the Iraq war.

Some leaders in Anbar, where Al Qaeda has very little support, insisted that their region's assistance to Syria is only humanitarian. Officials in Falluja have said they are establishing a camp in the expectation of refugees.
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"The people here want to help the people of Syria, not with weapons, but with whatever other help we can give them," said Faisel al-Esawi, a member of the Anbar Provincial Council.

Referring to Syria's open acceptance of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees during the war here, he said, "we need to stand next to the Syrian people, just like they stood next to us."

The Shiite-dominated central government in Baghdad has walked a fine line with its policy toward Syria, offering outright support neither to the Assad government nor the opposition.

"We are immediate neighbors," said Hosyar Zebari, Iraq's foreign minister. "It's like Mexico for the United States. With a change in Syria, everyone fears the spillover."

Mr. Zebari added, "this doesn't mean we support Assad's regime. We can't really oppose the Syrian people."

Iran's influence also factors into how Iraq calculates its Syria policy. The Iranian government is perhaps the closest friend of the Assad government, and Iraq does not want to alienate Iran, which exerts a degree of political control over the Iraqi leaders and backs militias here. There is also the fear that if Syria collapses, Iran will compensate for losing an ally in Syria by expanding its influence over Iraqi affairs.

In Anbar, the anger toward the central government's Syria policy is palpable.

Hours before the gathering Saturday in Falluja, a similar event was held at a soccer stadium in Ramadi. In celebrating the birth of the Prophet Muhammad, attendees also waved the version of the Syrian flag in use before the Assad family assumed power.

"We're here to support Syria and we want to stop the bloodshed," said Sheik Muhammad Hamis Abu Risha. "We want the Iraqi government to support the people, not the killers. They are helping the Syrian government kill those Muslims."

Reporting was contributed by Zaid Thaker, Yasir Ghazi and Omar al-Jawoshy from Baghdad, Neil MacFarquhar and Rania Kadri from Beirut, Lebanon, and employees of The New York Times from Falluja, Ramadi and Mosul, Iraq.

This article, "For Iraqis, aid to Syrian rebels repays a debt," first appeared in The New York Times.

[Hansmeister]

Obama has been hostile towards Israel since his election, which puts him in synch with his base and it doesn't seem to hurt him with liberal jews who apparently have lost interest in Israel.  In the end Obama is probably going to be irrelevant to the debate.

Besides Israel has acting stupid lately.  What they need is a friend who is willing to tell them to quit fucking things up.  For instance, don't publicly humiliate the the Turkish ambassador.

You mean like when Obama publicly humiliated Netanyahu?

And Israel isn't humiliating Turkey, it is Turkey which has been belligerent towards Israel.

Typical Democrat, always blaming the jews.

[Hansmeister]

http://www.businessinsider.com/bomb-blast-aimed-at-israeli-embassy-in-india-2012-2

ISRAELI EMBASSIES ATTACKED IN THREE COUNTRIES, NETANYAHU BLAMES IRAN
Joji Philip Thomas
A bomb attack aimed at members of the Israeli embassy has injured four people in New Delhi, India, according to NDTV.

Israeli officials have said there was another attempt on a diplomat's car in Tbilisi, Georgia, but the device did not go off. A Georgian worker at the Israeli embassy in Tbilisi said he heard strange noises in his car and alerted the police, according to Haaretz.

Security officials found the explosive device underneath the car and prevented the attack. Israeli diplomats were also reportedly targeted in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

The blast in New Delhi took place late Monday evening and is reported to have occurred near the Indian prime minister's home on Aurangzeb Road. The injured Israeli diplomat has been identified as Ms. Talyesshoa. She was on her way to get her children from the American school. The Indian driver of the car was also injured in the attack.

Eyewitnesses said they saw the attackers stick explosives onto the car and drive off, according to NDTV.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has blamed Iran and Hezbollah for the attack according to Haaretz reporter Barak Ravid.

At a press conference, Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman said (via Haaretz):

"The "attacks against Israeli embassies abroad... just means that the State of Israel and its citizens face a daily threat of terror, both physical and diplomatic. ...We know exactly who is responsible for the attack and who planned it, and we're not going to take it lying down."

The incident comes a day after the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah's deputy leader, Imad Mughniyah. The Islamist organization has accused Israel of the assassination though no one has officially taken responsibility for the attack.

The Jerusalem Post's military correspondent and defense analyst, Yaakov Katz, thinks the Hezbollah is likely to attack Israel overseas, to deter the West from launching a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Katz says Israel's defense establishment believes this is because Hezbollah wants to prove that it can launch an attack anywhere it wants.

Iran is really trying to help Israel justify striking the Iranian nuclear program.