US-Cuban Relations under Obama

[Darth Wagtaros]

I think the CIA should arm the Cubans in America with vintage World War 2 weapons and allow them to try and take back the island.

You are insane. Korean War era weaponry should be far more effective and nearly as cheap.

[Sheilbh]

Thoughts?  What will/should Obama do?  Should the US demand concessions of some sort from Cuba?  Would Obama be willing to expend political capital to cancel the embargo without preconditions?

I think this is to some extent Obama's strategy with rogue states.  If the US is the friendly country that's willing to talk it makes their anti-American rhetoric difficult to sustain, lessens antipathy in other (in this case Latin American) countries and makes it seem like the Cubans/Venezualans/Iranians are the ones unwilling to make an honest deal, which is usually the case.

I watched an interview with James Baker and he said that Reagan through to Clinton offered the Iranians unconditional talks at Secretary of State level on all subjects.  It never happened because the Iranian regime could never generate enough support to meet with the US at that level.  The one time they tried, with Clinton, Khatami authorised the meeting (at the UN) and, at the last minute, unknown to the US delegation Khameini needed to speak with the Foreign Minister.  So even then it failed.  But I think it recasts how it appears and puts the onus on the other regimes to make a very minimal concession, to be willing to negotiate in good faith.

On Cuba in particular I think it's just bizarre that it's a topic for discussion really.  This is a tiny, impoverished Caribbean island.  Lift the embargo, don't.  I don't think it matters hugely to the US (though it would be enormous to the Cuban economy). 

I think the changes made so far which I believe are to do with Cuban Americans visitng Cuba seem to me to be pretty common sense.  I think it should be lifted in general terms because I don't think Cuba's regime is that egregious.  But I don't think Cuba should occupy more than five minutes worth of thought or action.  It's unimportant.  Same goes for Chavez actually.  I think the American over-reaction (in my opinion) to Castro in the 60s and Chavez recently has actually bolstered their position.  It makes them seem far, far more important than they are.

[derspiess]

And what would such concessions be anyway ?

Concessions could range anywhere from compensation to US/Cuban citizens who had their property expropriated by the communist regime (the Cuban one, that is )  to concrete human rights improvements by the Cuban gov't. to vague promises from Cuba to do something sometime in the future in the general direction of improving human rights.

And btw, I know some of you think Cubans probably have all the human rights they need (in the form of free health care and education), but some of us odd sorts view freedom of speech, association, etc. to be fundamental human rights.

[derspiess]

I think the changes made so far which I believe are to do with Cuban Americans visitng Cuba seem to me to be pretty common sense.  I think it should be lifted in general terms because I don't think Cuba's regime is that egregious.  But I don't think Cuba should occupy more than five minutes worth of thought or action.  It's unimportant.  Same goes for Chavez actually.  I think the American over-reaction (in my opinion) to Castro in the 60s and Chavez recently has actually bolstered their position.  It makes them seem far, far more important than they are.

I disagree that we've overreacted to Chavez, but putting that aside, don't you think an improvement in US-Cuban relations would result in a general improvement in US relations with Latin America? 

[Sheilbh]

Concessions could range anywhere from compensation to US/Cuban citizens who had their property expropriated by the communist regime (the Cuban one, that is )

To be honest I don't think that'll ever happen.

[Sheilbh]

I disagree that we've overreacted to Chavez, but putting that aside, don't you think an improvement in US-Cuban relations would result in a general improvement in US relations with Latin America?

I think it would, but I think a lot of recent hostility was anti-Bush feeling.  If I were deciding I would treat Castro and Chavez as irrelevances, guys who just don't matter and fete Bachmann (sp?) and Lula.  Avoid the Kirchners.

Though I do think getting rid of the embargo would be an objectively good thing.

Got to run to dinner, I'll post more later

[Admiral Yi]

What's the point of the embargo again?

To punish Cuba for expropriating US-owned property.

[Grey Fox]

And what would such concessions be anyway ?

Concessions could range anywhere from compensation to US/Cuban citizens who had their property expropriated by the communist regime (the Cuban one, that is )  to concrete human rights improvements by the Cuban gov't. to vague promises from Cuba to do something sometime in the future in the general direction of improving human rights.

And btw, I know some of you think Cubans probably have all the human rights they need (in the form of free health care and education), but some of us odd sorts view freedom of speech, association, etc. to be fundamental human rights.

They don't, those that did left or died a long time ago. All they really want is to be able to buy TVs & Playstations.

[Admiral Yi]

As an aside, I recently heard that the Cuban government takes 33% off the top of any remittances.  The source was a Miami Cuban so take the information with as many grains of salt as you think appropriate.

[Sheilbh]

As an aside, I recently heard that the Cuban government takes 33% off the top of any remittances.  The source was a Miami Cuban so take the information with as many grains of salt as you think appropriate.

That's likely.  I don't know the rates but most developing countries tax remittances as income.  It's the primary source of inward investment in many.

[Berkut]

As an aside, I recently heard that the Cuban government takes 33% off the top of any remittances.  The source was a Miami Cuban so take the information with as many grains of salt as you think appropriate.

They are a Communist country - frankly I am surprised it is as low as 33%.

Shouldn't they take it all, and divide it up evenly amongst The People?

[saskganesh]

here's a pretty good timeline of how things could work out regarding normalisation:

http://vietnam.usembassy.gov/chronology.html

(just substitute property for MIA's)

[Viking]

The Cuban in Florida hate Castro, to win the Presindency you need Florida.

This has changed in the last few years. The children of the the refugees from the 50s and 60s and the refugees of the 80s and later have different attitudes to the refugees from the 50s and 60s.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE53K5CS20090421

Forty-three percent said they favored ending the embargo while 42 percent said they thought it should continue and 15 percent said they had no answer or were unable to respond when asked their opinion about the sanctions.

[Siege]

Indeed, grallon is right.

Obama should go ask raul what the US can do in return for the US for dropping the embargo. We should make some concessions to Cuba, and maybe then they will allow us to reset the relationship.

[Razgovory]

What's the point of the embargo again?

To punish Cuba for expropriating US-owned property.

Meyer Lansky is dead Yi.